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Sample records for predict individual efficiency

  1. Predicting Individual Fuel Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Zhenhong; Greene, David L

    2011-01-01

    To make informed decisions about travel and vehicle purchase, consumers need unbiased and accurate information of the fuel economy they will actually obtain. In the past, the EPA fuel economy estimates based on its 1984 rules have been widely criticized for overestimating on-road fuel economy. In 2008, EPA adopted a new estimation rule. This study compares the usefulness of the EPA's 1984 and 2008 estimates based on their prediction bias and accuracy and attempts to improve the prediction of on-road fuel economies based on consumer and vehicle attributes. We examine the usefulness of the EPA fuel economy estimates using a large sample of self-reported on-road fuel economy data and develop an Individualized Model for more accurately predicting an individual driver's on-road fuel economy based on easily determined vehicle and driver attributes. Accuracy rather than bias appears to have limited the usefulness of the EPA 1984 estimates in predicting on-road MPG. The EPA 2008 estimates appear to be equally inaccurate and substantially more biased relative to the self-reported data. Furthermore, the 2008 estimates exhibit an underestimation bias that increases with increasing fuel economy, suggesting that the new numbers will tend to underestimate the real-world benefits of fuel economy and emissions standards. By including several simple driver and vehicle attributes, the Individualized Model reduces the unexplained variance by over 55% and the standard error by 33% based on an independent test sample. The additional explanatory variables can be easily provided by the individuals.

  2. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  3. Neuroanatomy predicts individual risk attitudes.

    PubMed

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Glimcher, Paul W; Levy, Ifat

    2014-09-10

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  4. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as ‘dyslexic’ or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Results Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Conclusions Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. PMID:25832320

  5. Individual alerting efficiency modulates time perception

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Peiduo; Yang, Wenjing; Yuan, Xiangyong; Bi, Cuihua; Chen, Antao; Huang, Xiting

    2015-01-01

    Time perception plays a fundamental role in human perceptual and motor activities, and can be influenced by various factors, such as selective attention and arousal. However, little is known about the influence of individual alerting efficiency on perceived duration. In this study, we explored this question by running two experiments. The Attentional Networks Test was used to evaluate individual differences in alerting efficiency in each experiment. Temporal bisection (Experiment 1) and time generalization task (Experiment 2) were used to explore the participants’ perception of duration. The results indicated that subjects in the high alerting efficiency group overestimated interval durations and estimated durations more accurately compared with subjects in the low alerting efficiency group. The two experiments showed that the sensitivity of time was not influenced by individual alerting efficiency. Based on previous studies and current findings, we infer that individual differences in alerting efficiency may influence time perception through modulating the latency of the attention-controlled switch and the speed of the peacemaker within the framework of the internal clock model. PMID:25904881

  6. Predicting future violence among individuals with psychopathy.

    PubMed

    Coid, Jeremy W; Ullrich, Simone; Kallis, Constantinos

    2013-11-01

    Structured risk assessment aims to help clinicians classify offenders according to likelihood of future violent and criminal behaviour. We investigated how confident clinicians can be using three commonly used instruments (HCR-20, VRAG, OGRS-II) in individuals with different diagnoses. Moderate to good predictive accuracy for future violence was achieved for released prisoners with no mental disorder, low to moderate for clinical syndromes and personality disorder, but accuracy was no better than chance for individuals with psychopathy. Comprehensive diagnostic assessment should precede an assessment of risk. Risk assessment instruments cannot be relied upon when managing public risk from individuals with psychopathy. PMID:24072757

  7. Predicting individual fusional range from optometric data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endrikhovski, Serguei; Jin, Elaine; Miller, Michael E.; Ford, Robert W.

    2005-03-01

    A model was developed to predict the range of disparities that can be fused by an individual user from optometric measurements. This model uses parameters, such as dissociated phoria and fusional reserves, to calculate an individual user"s fusional range (i.e., the disparities that can be fused on stereoscopic displays) when the user views a stereoscopic stimulus from various distances. This model is validated by comparing its output with data from a study in which the individual fusional range of a group of users was quantified while they viewed a stereoscopic display from distances of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 meters. Overall, the model provides good data predictions for the majority of the subjects and can be generalized for other viewing conditions. The model may, therefore, be used within a customized stereoscopic system, which would render stereoscopic information in a way that accounts for the individual differences in fusional range. Because the comfort of an individual user also depends on the user"s ability to fuse stereo images, such a system may, consequently, improve the comfort level and viewing experience for people with different stereoscopic fusional capabilities.

  8. Energy efficiency: Perspectives on individual behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Kempton, W.; Neiman, M.

    1986-01-01

    A collection of research papers on the personal behavior and attitudes that affect residential energy use. Articles in the first section address the factors that affect decision-making by consumers; convenience and personal opinions often override rational economic choices. The research in the second section uses aggregate survey data to gain insight into energy behavior. Papers in the third section use detailed monitoring of individual households to analyze personal behavior and home energy management, and the fourth section includes papers on the interaction of building systems with occupants. These papers demonstrate that, to be successful, energy conservation programs must consider the ''human factor'' in addition to the conventional energy parameters (e.g. weather, insulation, and appliance efficiencies). Main emphasis was given to: energy conservation; consumers; personal behavior; economic decision-making; buildings; energy policy; hot water use; thermostats; attitudes; applied anthropology.

  9. Efficiently Finding Individuals from Video Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Pengyi; Kamata, Sei-Ichiro

    We are interested in retrieving video shots or videos containing particular people from a video dataset. Owing to the large variations in pose, illumination conditions, occlusions, hairstyles and facial expressions, face tracks have recently been researched in the fields of face recognition, face retrieval and name labeling from videos. However, when the number of face tracks is very large, conventional methods, which match all or some pairs of faces in face tracks, will not be effective. Therefore, in this paper, an efficient method for finding a given person from a video dataset is presented. In our study, in according to performing research on face tracks in a single video, we also consider how to organize all the faces in videos in a dataset and how to improve the search quality in the query process. Different videos may include the same person; thus, the management of individuals in different videos will be useful for their retrieval. The proposed method includes the following three points. (i) Face tracks of the same person appearing for a period in each video are first connected on the basis of scene information with a time constriction, then all the people in one video are organized by a proposed hierarchical clustering method. (ii) After obtaining the organizational structure of all the people in one video, the people are organized into an upper layer by affinity propagation. (iii) Finally, in the process of querying, a remeasuring method based on the index structure of videos is performed to improve the retrieval accuracy. We also build a video dataset that contains six types of videos: films, TV shows, educational videos, interviews, press conferences and domestic activities. The formation of face tracks in the six types of videos is first researched, then experiments are performed on this video dataset containing more than 1 million faces and 218,786 face tracks. The results show that the proposed approach has high search quality and a short search time.

  10. Intrinsic functional connectivity predicts individual differences in distractibility.

    PubMed

    Poole, Victoria N; Robinson, Meghan E; Singleton, Omar; DeGutis, Joseph; Milberg, William P; McGlinchey, Regina E; Salat, David H; Esterman, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Distractor suppression, the ability to filter and ignore task-irrelevant information, is critical for efficient task performance. While successful distractor suppression relies on a balance of activity in neural networks responsible for attention maintenance (dorsal attention network; DAN), reorientation (ventral attention network; VAN), and internal thought (default mode network, DMN), the degree to which intrinsic connectivity within and between these networks contributes to individual differences in distractor suppression ability is not well-characterized. For the purposes of understanding these interactions, the current study collected resting-state fMRI data from 32 Veterans and, several months later (7±5 months apart), performance on the additional singleton paradigm, a measure of distractor suppression. Using multivariate support vector regression models composed of resting state connectivity between regions of the DAN, VAN, and DMN, and a leave-one-subject-out cross-validation procedure, we were able to predict an individual's task performance, yielding a significant correlation between the actual and predicted distractor suppression (r=0.48, p=0.0053). Network-level analyses revealed that greater within-network DMN connectivity was predictive of better distractor suppression, while greater connectivity between the DMN and attention networks was predictive of poorer distractor suppression. The strongest connection hubs were determined to be the right frontal eye field and temporoparietal junction of the DAN and VAN, respectively, and medial (ventromedial prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortices) and bilateral prefrontal regions of the DMN. These results are amongst a small but growing number of studies demonstrating that resting state connectivity is related to stable individual differences in cognitive ability, and suggest that greater integrity and independence of the DMN is related to better attentional ability. PMID:27132070

  11. Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

    2003-01-01

    The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

  12. Extraversion predicts individual differences in face recognition.

    PubMed

    Li, Jingguang; Tian, Moqian; Fang, Huizhen; Xu, Miao; Li, He; Liu, Jia

    2010-07-01

    In daily life, one of the most common social tasks we perform is to recognize faces. However, the relation between face recognition ability and social activities is largely unknown. Here we ask whether individuals with better social skills are also better at recognizing faces. We found that extraverts who have better social skills correctly recognized more faces than introverts. However, this advantage was absent when extraverts were asked to recognize non-social stimuli (e.g., flowers). In particular, the underlying facet that makes extraverts better face recognizers is the gregariousness facet that measures the degree of inter-personal interaction. In addition, the link between extraversion and face recognition ability was independent of general cognitive abilities. These findings provide the first evidence that links face recognition ability to our daily activity in social communication, supporting the hypothesis that extraverts are better at decoding social information than introverts. PMID:20798810

  13. A Simple Model Predicting Individual Weight Change in Humans.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Diana M; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven; Redman, Leanne M; Schoeller, Dale A; Levine, James A

    2011-11-01

    Excessive weight in adults is a national concern with over 2/3 of the US population deemed overweight. Because being overweight has been correlated to numerous diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes, there is a need to understand mechanisms and predict outcomes of weight change and weight maintenance. A simple mathematical model that accurately predicts individual weight change offers opportunities to understand how individuals lose and gain weight and can be used to foster patient adherence to diets in clinical settings. For this purpose, we developed a one dimensional differential equation model of weight change based on the energy balance equation is paired to an algebraic relationship between fat free mass and fat mass derived from a large nationally representative sample of recently released data collected by the Centers for Disease Control. We validate the model's ability to predict individual participants' weight change by comparing model estimates of final weight data from two recent underfeeding studies and one overfeeding study. Mean absolute error and standard deviation between model predictions and observed measurements of final weights are less than 1.8 ± 1.3 kg for the underfeeding studies and 2.5 ± 1.6 kg for the overfeeding study. Comparison of the model predictions to other one dimensional models of weight change shows improvement in mean absolute error, standard deviation of mean absolute error, and group mean predictions. The maximum absolute individual error decreased by approximately 60% substantiating reliability in individual weight change predictions. The model provides a viable method for estimating individual weight change as a result of changes in intake and determining individual dietary adherence during weight change studies. PMID:24707319

  14. A Simple Model Predicting Individual Weight Change in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Diana M.; Martin, Corby K.; Heymsfield, Steven; Redman, Leanne M.; Schoeller, Dale A.; Levine, James A.

    2010-01-01

    Excessive weight in adults is a national concern with over 2/3 of the US population deemed overweight. Because being overweight has been correlated to numerous diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes, there is a need to understand mechanisms and predict outcomes of weight change and weight maintenance. A simple mathematical model that accurately predicts individual weight change offers opportunities to understand how individuals lose and gain weight and can be used to foster patient adherence to diets in clinical settings. For this purpose, we developed a one dimensional differential equation model of weight change based on the energy balance equation is paired to an algebraic relationship between fat free mass and fat mass derived from a large nationally representative sample of recently released data collected by the Centers for Disease Control. We validate the model's ability to predict individual participants’ weight change by comparing model estimates of final weight data from two recent underfeeding studies and one overfeeding study. Mean absolute error and standard deviation between model predictions and observed measurements of final weights are less than 1.8 ± 1.3 kg for the underfeeding studies and 2.5 ± 1.6 kg for the overfeeding study. Comparison of the model predictions to other one dimensional models of weight change shows improvement in mean absolute error, standard deviation of mean absolute error, and group mean predictions. The maximum absolute individual error decreased by approximately 60% substantiating reliability in individual weight change predictions. The model provides a viable method for estimating individual weight change as a result of changes in intake and determining individual dietary adherence during weight change studies. PMID:24707319

  15. Measuring the operational efficiency of individual theme park attractions.

    PubMed

    Kim, Changhee; Kim, Soowook

    2016-01-01

    This study assesses the operation efficiency of theme park attractions using the data envelopment analysis, utilizing actual data on 15 attractions at Samsung Everland located in Yongin-si, Republic of Korea. In particular, this study identifies crowding and waiting time as one of the main causes of visitor's satisfaction, and analyzes the efficiency of individual attractions in terms of waiting time. The installation area, installation cost, and annual repair cost are set as input factors and the number of annual users and customer satisfaction as output factors. The results show that the roller coaster-type attractions were less efficient than other types of attractions while rotating-type attractions were relatively more efficient. However, an importance performance analysis on individual attraction's efficiency and satisfaction showed that operational efficiency should not be the sole consideration in attraction installation. In addition, the projection points for input factors for efficient use of attractions and the appropriate reference set for benchmarking are provided as guideline for attraction efficiency management. PMID:27386283

  16. Sizing up your enemy: individual predation vulnerability predicts migratory probability.

    PubMed

    Skov, Christian; Baktoft, Henrik; Brodersen, Jakob; Brönmark, Christer; Chapman, Ben B; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Nilsson, P Anders

    2011-05-01

    Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predation risk and growth potential. Phenotypic variation in either individual predation risk or growth potential should thus mediate the strength of the trade-off and ultimately predict patterns of partial migration at the individual level (i.e. which individuals migrate and which remain resident). We provide cross-population empirical support for the importance of one component of this model--individual predation risk--in predicting partial migration in wild populations of bream Abramis brama, a freshwater fish. Smaller, high-risk individuals migrate with a higher probability than larger, low-risk individuals, and we suggest that predation risk maintains size-dependent partial migration in this system. PMID:20980300

  17. Sizing up your enemy: individual predation vulnerability predicts migratory probability

    PubMed Central

    Skov, Christian; Baktoft, Henrik; Brodersen, Jakob; Brönmark, Christer; Chapman, Ben B.; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Nilsson, P. Anders

    2011-01-01

    Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predation risk and growth potential. Phenotypic variation in either individual predation risk or growth potential should thus mediate the strength of the trade-off and ultimately predict patterns of partial migration at the individual level (i.e. which individuals migrate and which remain resident). We provide cross-population empirical support for the importance of one component of this model—individual predation risk—in predicting partial migration in wild populations of bream Abramis brama, a freshwater fish. Smaller, high-risk individuals migrate with a higher probability than larger, low-risk individuals, and we suggest that predation risk maintains size-dependent partial migration in this system. PMID:20980300

  18. Individual Differences in Statistical Learning Predict Children's Comprehension of Syntax

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kidd, Evan; Arciuli, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Variability in children's language acquisition is likely due to a number of cognitive and social variables. The current study investigated whether individual differences in statistical learning (SL), which has been implicated in language acquisition, independently predicted 6- to 8-year-old's comprehension of syntax. Sixty-eight (N = 68)…

  19. Individual Factors Predicting Mental Health Court Diversion Outcome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Verhaaff, Ashley; Scott, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    Objective: This study examined which individual factors predict mental health court diversion outcome among a sample of persons with mental illness participating in a postcharge diversion program. Method: The study employed secondary analysis of existing program records for 419 persons with mental illness in a court diversion program. Results:…

  20. Stress responsiveness predicts individual variation in mate selectivity.

    PubMed

    Vitousek, Maren N; Romero, L Michael

    2013-06-15

    Steroid hormones, including glucocorticoids, mediate a variety of behavioral and physiological processes. Circulating hormone concentrations vary substantially within populations, and although hormone titers predict reproductive success in several species, little is known about how individual variation in circulating hormone concentrations is linked with most reproductive behaviors in free-living organisms. Mate choice is an important and often costly component of reproduction that also varies substantially within populations. We examined whether energetically costly mate selection behavior in female Galápagos marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus) was associated with individual variation in the concentrations of hormones previously shown to differ between reproductive and non-reproductive females during the breeding season (corticosterone and testosterone). Stress-induced corticosterone levels - which are suppressed in female marine iguanas during reproduction - were individually repeatable throughout the seven-week breeding period. Mate selectivity was strongly predicted by individual variation in stress-induced corticosterone: reproductive females that secreted less corticosterone in response to a standardized stressor assessed more displaying males. Neither baseline corticosterone nor testosterone predicted variation in mate selectivity. Scaled body mass was not significantly associated with mate selectivity, but females that began the breeding period in lower body condition showed a trend towards being less selective about potential mates. These results provide the first evidence that individual variation in the corticosterone stress response is associated with how selective females are in their choice of a mate, an important contributor to fitness in many species. Future research is needed to determine the functional basis of this association, and whether transient acute increases in circulating corticosterone directly mediate mate choice behaviors. PMID

  1. Who punishes? Personality traits predict individual variation in punitive sentiment.

    PubMed

    Roberts, S Craig; Vakirtzis, Antonios; Kristjánsdóttir, Lilja; Havlíček, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Cross-culturally, participants in public goods games reward participants and punish defectors to a degree beyond that warranted by rational, profit-maximizing considerations. Costly punishment, where individuals impose costs on defectors at a cost to themselves, is thought to promote the maintenance of cooperation. However, despite substantial variation in the extent to which people punish, little is known about why some individuals, and not others, choose to pay these costs. Here, we test whether personality traits might contribute to variation in helping and punishment behavior. We first replicate a previous study using public goods scenarios to investigate effects of sex, relatedness and likelihood of future interaction on willingness to help a group member or to punish a transgressor. As in the previous study, we find that individuals are more willing to help related than unrelated needy others and that women are more likely to express desire to help than men. Desire to help was higher if the probability of future interaction is high, at least among women. In contrast, among these variables, only participant sex predicted some measures of punitive sentiment. Extending the replication, we found that punitive sentiment, but not willingness to help, was predicted by personality traits. Most notably, participants scoring lower on Agreeableness expressed more anger towards and greater desire to punish a transgressor, and were more willing to engage in costly punishment, at least in our scenario. Our results suggest that some personality traits may contribute to underpinning individual variation in social enforcement of cooperation. PMID:23531805

  2. Prediction of INDIVIDUAL'S Movement Based on Interesting Places

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feuerhake, U.

    2012-07-01

    In general, the development of prediction methods is a quite challenging field. However, as difficult the development is, as useful those methods can be in a large variety of use cases. Whether the weather of tomorrow or the destination of a moving individual is to be predicted, in both cases many different aspects have to be considered, because as well as the weather's behaviour the one of individuals, especially human beings, is influenced by many factors. For instance, movements of human beings are either planned, arbitrary or influenced by their environment or social aspects. In most cases a combination of those factors is involved. In this paper, motivated by the context of a decentralized surveillance scenario, we present an approach for predicting movements on the basis of a prediction model generated from the knowledge, which is implicated in spatio-temporal trajectories. This model is based on extracted interesting places and considers several aspects, which contain gained information about the movement behaviour in a given scenario.

  3. Individual differences in physiological flexibility predict spontaneous avoidance.

    PubMed

    Aldao, Amelia; Dixon-Gordon, Katherine L; De Los Reyes, Andres

    2016-08-01

    People often regulate their emotions by resorting to avoidance, a putatively maladaptive strategy. Prior work suggests that increased psychopathology symptoms predict greater spontaneous utilisation of this strategy. Extending this work, we examined whether heightened resting cardiac vagal tone (which reflects a general ability to regulate emotions in line with contextual demands) predicts decreased spontaneous avoidance. In Study 1, greater resting vagal tone was associated with reduced spontaneous avoidance in response to disgust-eliciting pictures, beyond anxiety and depression symptoms and emotional reactivity. In Study 2, resting vagal tone interacted with anxiety and depression symptoms to predict spontaneous avoidance in response to disgust-eliciting film clips. The positive association between symptoms and spontaneous avoidance was more pronounced among participants with reduced resting vagal tone. Thus, increased resting vagal tone might protect against the use of avoidance. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing both subjective and biological processes when studying individual differences in emotion regulation. PMID:26147365

  4. Folk beliefs about genetic variation predict avoidance of biracial individuals

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sonia K.; Plaks, Jason E.; Remedios, Jessica D.

    2015-01-01

    People give widely varying estimates for the amount of genetic overlap that exists between humans. While some laypeople believe that humans are highly genetically similar to one another, others believe that humans share very little genetic overlap. These studies examine how beliefs about genetic overlap affect neural and evaluative reactions to racially-ambiguous and biracial targets. In Study 1, we found that lower genetic overlap estimates predicted a stronger neural avoidance response to biracial compared to monoracial targets. In Study 2, we found that lower genetic overlap estimates predicted longer response times to classify biracial (vs. monoracial) faces into racial categories. In Study 3, we manipulated genetic overlap beliefs and found that participants in the low overlap condition explicitly rated biracial targets more negatively than those in the high overlap condition. Taken together, these data suggest that genetic overlap beliefs influence perceivers’ processing fluency and evaluation of biracial and racially-ambiguous individuals. PMID:25904875

  5. Predicting individual variation in language from infant speech perception measures.

    PubMed

    Cristia, Alejandrina; Seidl, Amanda; Junge, Caroline; Soderstrom, Melanie; Hagoort, Peter

    2014-01-01

    There are increasing reports that individual variation in behavioral and neurophysiological measures of infant speech processing predicts later language outcomes, and specifically concurrent or subsequent vocabulary size. If such findings are held up under scrutiny, they could both illuminate theoretical models of language development and contribute to the prediction of communicative disorders. A qualitative, systematic review of this emergent literature illustrated the variety of approaches that have been used and highlighted some conceptual problems regarding the measurements. A quantitative analysis of the same data established that the bivariate relation was significant, with correlations of similar strength to those found for well-established nonlinguistic predictors of language. Further exploration of infant speech perception predictors, particularly from a methodological perspective, is recommended. PMID:24320112

  6. Relationship between efficiency and predictability in stock price change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-09-01

    In this study, we evaluate the relationship between efficiency and predictability in the stock market. The efficiency, which is the issue addressed by the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, is calculated using the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn). The predictability corresponds to the hit-rate; this is the rate of consistency between the direction of the actual price change and that of the predicted price change, as calculated via the nearest neighbor prediction method. We determine that the Hurst exponent and the ApEn value are negatively correlated. However, predictability is positively correlated with the Hurst exponent.

  7. Compulsivity predicts fronto striatal activation in severely anorectic individuals.

    PubMed

    Rothemund, Y; Buchwald, C; Georgiewa, P; Bohner, G; Bauknecht, H-C; Ballmaier, M; Klapp, B F; Klingebiel, R

    2011-12-01

    Anorexia nervosa is a severe illness and shows one of the highest death rates among psychiatric or psychosomatic diseases. However, despite several lines of research, the etiology of this disease is still unknown. One of those features is the rigidity of behaviors, for example, controlling of weight and pursuing of thinness, that often meets the criteria for obsessive-compulsive behavior. In this study, it was investigated whether the clinical feature of compulsivity in anorexia nervosa patients relates to regional brain activation. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, 12 severely anorectic women were compared to 12 normal-weight female individuals following a cue-reactivity paradigm. Cues comprised food cues of high and low calorie content as well as eating-related utensils. Voxel-based morphometric analysis indicated significantly overall reduced gray matter volume and significantly increased cerebrospinal fluids in anorexia nervosa (AN) patients, which was controlled for in subsequent analyses. Following the high-calorie stimulation, AN patients activated the right caudate body and right precuneus, whereas control subjects did not show significant regional activations. In both other conditions, low-calorie foods and eating utensils, regional brain activations did not survive FDR thresholds. During the high-calorie condition, compulsivity, that is, the subscore "obsessive thoughts," predicted activation of the superior frontal gyrus [Brodmann areas (BA) 10], inferior frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate cortex (BA 32), cingulate gyrus (BA 24), caudate body, cuneus, pre- and postcentral gyrus. The subscore "compulsive acts" correlated with activation of the claustrum during the high-calorie condition and predicted a number of deactivations of frontal and temporal regions. We conclude that in severely anorectic individuals, the degree of compulsivity predicts activation and deactivation of the fronto-striatal pathway. PMID:21952129

  8. Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners.

    PubMed

    Blythe, Duncan A J; Király, Franz J

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners' performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel's formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design. PMID:27336162

  9. Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners’ performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel’s formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design. PMID:27336162

  10. Dopaminergic genes predict individual differences in susceptibility to confirmation bias

    PubMed Central

    Doll, Bradley B.; Hutchison, Kent E.; Frank, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    The striatum is critical for the incremental learning of values associated with behavioral actions. The pre-frontal cortex (PFC) represents abstract rules and explicit contingencies to support rapid behavioral adaptation in the absence of cumulative experience. Here we test two alternative models of the interaction between these systems, and individual differences thereof, when human subjects are instructed with prior information about reward contingencies that may or may not be accurate. Behaviorally, subjects are overly influenced by prior instructions, at the expense of learning true reinforcement statistics. Computational analysis found that this pattern of data is best accounted for by a confirmation bias mechanism in which prior beliefs - putatively represented in PFC - influence the learning that occurs in the striatum such that reinforcement statistics are distorted. We assessed genetic variants affecting prefrontal and striatal dopaminergic neurotransmission. A polymorphism in the COMT gene (rs4680), associated with prefrontal dopaminergic function, was predictive of the degree to which participants persisted in responding in accordance with prior instructions even as evidence against their veracity accumulated. Polymorphisms in genes associated with striatal dopamine function (DARPP-32, rs907094, and DRD2, rs6277), were predictive of learning from positive and negative outcomes. Notably, these same variants were predictive of the degree to which such learning was overly inflated or neglected when outcomes are consistent or inconsistent with prior instructions. These findings indicate dissociable neurocomputational and genetic mechanisms by which initial biases are strengthened by experience. PMID:21508242

  11. Dopaminergic genes predict individual differences in susceptibility to confirmation bias.

    PubMed

    Doll, Bradley B; Hutchison, Kent E; Frank, Michael J

    2011-04-20

    The striatum is critical for the incremental learning of values associated with behavioral actions. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) represents abstract rules and explicit contingencies to support rapid behavioral adaptation in the absence of cumulative experience. Here we test two alternative models of the interaction between these systems, and individual differences thereof, when human subjects are instructed with prior information about reward contingencies that may or may not be accurate. Behaviorally, subjects are overly influenced by prior instructions, at the expense of learning true reinforcement statistics. Computational analysis found that this pattern of data is best accounted for by a confirmation bias mechanism in which prior beliefs--putatively represented in PFC--influence the learning that occurs in the striatum such that reinforcement statistics are distorted. We assessed genetic variants affecting prefrontal and striatal dopaminergic neurotransmission. A polymorphism in the COMT gene (rs4680), associated with prefrontal dopaminergic function, was predictive of the degree to which participants persisted in responding in accordance with prior instructions even as evidence against their veracity accumulated. Polymorphisms in genes associated with striatal dopamine function (DARPP-32, rs907094, and DRD2, rs6277) were predictive of learning from positive and negative outcomes. Notably, these same variants were predictive of the degree to which such learning was overly inflated or neglected when outcomes are consistent or inconsistent with prior instructions. These findings indicate dissociable neurocomputational and genetic mechanisms by which initial biases are strengthened by experience. PMID:21508242

  12. Efficient Methods to Compute Genomic Predictions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Efficient methods for processing genomic data were developed to increase reliability of estimated breeding values and simultaneously estimate thousands of marker effects. Algorithms were derived and computer programs tested on simulated data for 50,000 markers and 2,967 bulls. Accurate estimates of ...

  13. Predicting the Time Course of Individual Objects with MEG.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Alex; Devereux, Barry J; Randall, Billi; Tyler, Lorraine K

    2015-10-01

    To respond appropriately to objects, we must process visual inputs rapidly and assign them meaning. This involves highly dynamic, interactive neural processes through which information accumulates and cognitive operations are resolved across multiple time scales. However, there is currently no model of object recognition which provides an integrated account of how visual and semantic information emerge over time; therefore, it remains unknown how and when semantic representations are evoked from visual inputs. Here, we test whether a model of individual objects--based on combining the HMax computational model of vision with semantic-feature information--can account for and predict time-varying neural activity recorded with magnetoencephalography. We show that combining HMax and semantic properties provides a better account of neural object representations compared with the HMax alone, both through model fit and classification performance. Our results show that modeling and classifying individual objects is significantly improved by adding semantic-feature information beyond ∼200 ms. These results provide important insights into the functional properties of visual processing across time. PMID:25209607

  14. Predicting the use of Individualized Risk Assessment for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bartle-Haring, Suzanne; Toviessi, Paula; Katafiasz, Heather

    2008-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision to obtain individualized risk assessment after a breast cancer education session. Methods A sample of both African American and Caucasian women was used to determine if there were differences by race/ethnicity in uptake of the assessment and differences in the variables that were most predictive of uptake. The sample included 166 women between the ages of 18 and 80. Sixty-two percent of the sample were African American women. Key Findings The results suggested that African American women and Caucasian women used different factors and used other factors differently to decide whether or not to obtain an individualized risk assessment. Conclusions and Implications These results are discussed within the context of health disparities among ethnic minority and Caucasian women with implications for breast cancer control programs. The results of this study would suggest that knowledge alone does not lead to opting for a personalized risk assessment, and that African American and Caucasian women use different pieces of information, or information differently to make decision about getting more personalized information about risk. PMID:18319147

  15. Individual differences in saccharin acceptance predict rats' food intake.

    PubMed

    Boakes, Robert A; Martire, Sarah I; Rooney, Kieron B; Kendig, Michael D

    2016-10-01

    Following previous results indicating that low acceptance of saccharin-sweetened yoghurt was associated with slower weight gain, the aim of this experiment was to determine which of three measures of individual differences would predict subsequent chow consumption, body weight gain, and fat mass. Pre-test measures consisted of amount of running in an activity wheel, amount of 0.1% saccharin solution consumed over 24h, and performance on an elevated plus maze (EPM). Rats were then maintained for three weeks on a diet of standard chow and water. Subsequent post-testing repeated the procedures used in pre-testing. The rats were then culled and fat pads excised and weighed. Pre-testing revealed a negative correlation between saccharin acceptance and activity, while neither measure correlated with anxiety in the EPM. Pre-test saccharin acceptance was positively correlated with subsequent chow consumption, percent weight gain, and g/kg fat mass. Multiple regression analyses including all three pre-test measures confirmed saccharin acceptance as a predictor of chow consumption and, marginally, of fat pad mass, while high anxiety predicted low percent body weight gain. PMID:27260516

  16. Individual predictions of eye-movements with dynamic scenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barth, Erhardt; Drewes, Jan; Martinetz, Thomas

    2003-06-01

    We present a model that predicts saccadic eye-movements and can be tuned to a particular human observer who is viewing a dynamic sequence of images. Our work is motivated by applications that involve gaze-contingent interactive displays on which information is displayed as a function of gaze direction. The approach therefore differs from standard approaches in two ways: (1) we deal with dynamic scenes, and (2) we provide means of adapting the model to a particular observer. As an indicator for the degree of saliency we evaluate the intrinsic dimension of the image sequence within a geometric approach implemented by using the structure tensor. Out of these candidate saliency-based locations, the currently attended location is selected according to a strategy found by supervised learning. The data are obtained with an eye-tracker and subjects who view video sequences. The selection algorithm receives candidate locations of current and past frames and a limited history of locations attended in the past. We use a linear mapping that is obtained by minimizing the quadratic difference between the predicted and the actually attended location by gradient descent. Being linear, the learned mapping can be quickly adapted to the individual observer.

  17. Multimodal Movement Prediction - Towards an Individual Assistance of Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kirchner, Elsa Andrea; Tabie, Marc; Seeland, Anett

    2014-01-01

    Assistive devices, like exoskeletons or orthoses, often make use of physiological data that allow the detection or prediction of movement onset. Movement onset can be detected at the executing site, the skeletal muscles, as by means of electromyography. Movement intention can be detected by the analysis of brain activity, recorded by, e.g., electroencephalography, or in the behavior of the subject by, e.g., eye movement analysis. These different approaches can be used depending on the kind of neuromuscular disorder, state of therapy or assistive device. In this work we conducted experiments with healthy subjects while performing self-initiated and self-paced arm movements. While other studies showed that multimodal signal analysis can improve the performance of predictions, we show that a sensible combination of electroencephalographic and electromyographic data can potentially improve the adaptability of assistive technical devices with respect to the individual demands of, e.g., early and late stages in rehabilitation therapy. In earlier stages for patients with weak muscle or motor related brain activity it is important to achieve high positive detection rates to support self-initiated movements. To detect most movement intentions from electroencephalographic or electromyographic data motivates a patient and can enhance her/his progress in rehabilitation. In a later stage for patients with stronger muscle or brain activity, reliable movement prediction is more important to encourage patients to behave more accurately and to invest more effort in the task. Further, the false detection rate needs to be reduced. We propose that both types of physiological data can be used in an and combination, where both signals must be detected to drive a movement. By this approach the behavior of the patient during later therapy can be controlled better and false positive detections, which can be very annoying for patients who are further advanced in rehabilitation, can be

  18. Efficient prediction of (p,n) yields

    SciTech Connect

    Swift, D C; McNaney, J M; Higginson, D P; Beg, F

    2009-09-09

    In the continuous deceleration approximation, charged particles decelerate without any spread in energy as they traverse matter. This approximation simplifies the calculation of the yield of nuclear reactions, for which the cross-section depends on the particle energy. We calculated (p,n) yields for a LiF target, using the Bethe-Bloch relation for proton deceleration, and predicted that the maximum yield would be around 0.25% neutrons per incident proton, for an initial proton energy of 70 MeV or higher. Yield-energy relations calculated in this way can readily be used to optimize source and (p,n) converter characteristics.

  19. Computationally efficient prediction of area per lipid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaban, Vitaly

    2014-11-01

    Area per lipid (APL) is an important property of biological and artificial membranes. Newly constructed bilayers are characterized by their APL and newly elaborated force fields must reproduce APL. Computer simulations of APL are very expensive due to slow conformational dynamics. The simulated dynamics increases exponentially with respect to temperature. APL dependence on temperature is linear over an entire temperature range. I provide numerical evidence that thermal expansion coefficient of a lipid bilayer can be computed at elevated temperatures and extrapolated to the temperature of interest. Thus, sampling times to predict accurate APL are reduced by a factor of ∼10.

  20. Efficient prediction designs for random fields

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Werner G; Pronzato, Luc; Rendas, Joao; Waldl, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    For estimation and predictions of random fields, it is increasingly acknowledged that the kriging variance may be a poor representative of true uncertainty. Experimental designs based on more elaborate criteria that are appropriate for empirical kriging (EK) are then often non-space-filling and very costly to determine. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using a compound criterion inspired by an equivalence theorem type relation to build designs quasi-optimal for the EK variance when space-filling designs become unsuitable. Two algorithms are proposed, one relying on stochastic optimization to explicitly identify the Pareto front, whereas the second uses the surrogate criteria as local heuristic to choose the points at which the (costly) true EK variance is effectively computed. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms presented on both a simple simulated example and a real oceanographic dataset. © 2014 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26300698

  1. Prediction of individual season of birth using MRI

    PubMed Central

    Pantazatos, Spiro P.

    2014-01-01

    Previous research suggests statistical associations between season of birth (SOB) with prevalence of neurobehavioral disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, personality traits, and suicidal behavior. These effects are thought to be mediated by seasonal differences in perinatal photoperiod, which was recently shown to imprint circadian clock neurons and behavior in rodents. However, it is unknown whether SOB is associated with any measurable differences in the normal human adult brain, and whether individual SOB can be deduced based on phenotype. Here I show that SOB predicts neuroanatomical differences in regional grey matter volume, and that MRI scans carry spatially distributed information allowing significantly above chance prediction of an individual’s SOB. Using an open source database of over 550 structural brain scans, Voxel-Based Morphometry (VBM) analysis showed a significant SOB effect in left superior temporal gyrus (STG) in males (p=0.009, FWE whole-brain corrected), with greater grey matter volumes in fall and winter births. A cosinor analysis revealed a significant annual periodicity in left STG grey matter volume (Zero Amplitude Test: p<5×10-7), with a peak towards the end of December and a nadir towards the end of June, suggesting that perinatal photoperiod accounts for this SOB effect. Whole-brain VBM maps were used as input features to multivariate machine-learning based analyses to classify SOB. Significantly greater than chance prediction was achieved in females (overall accuracy 35%, p<0.001), but not in males (overall accuracy 26%, p=0.45). Pair-wise binary classification in females revealed the highest discrimination was obtained for winter vs. summer classification (peak area under the ROC curve=0.71, p<0.0005). Discriminating regions included fusiform and middle temporal gyrus, inferior and superior parietal lobe, cerebellum, and dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Results indicate SOB is detectable with MRI

  2. Predicting individual brain maturity using dynamic functional connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Jian; Chen, Shan-Guang; Hu, Dewen; Zeng, Ling-Li; Fan, Yi-Ming; Chen, Xiao-Ping; Shen, Hui

    2015-01-01

    Neuroimaging-based functional connectivity (FC) analyses have revealed significant developmental trends in specific intrinsic connectivity networks linked to cognitive and behavioral maturation. However, knowledge of how brain functional maturation is associated with FC dynamics at rest is limited. Here, we examined age-related differences in the temporal variability of FC dynamics with data publicly released by the Nathan Kline Institute (NKI; n = 183, ages 7–30) and showed that dynamic inter-region interactions can be used to accurately predict individual brain maturity across development. Furthermore, we identified a significant age-dependent trend underlying dynamic inter-network FC, including increasing variability of the connections between the visual network, default mode network (DMN) and cerebellum as well as within the cerebellum and DMN and decreasing variability within the cerebellum and between the cerebellum and DMN as well as the cingulo-opercular network. Overall, the results suggested significant developmental changes in dynamic inter-network interaction, which may shed new light on the functional organization of typical developmental brains. PMID:26236224

  3. Culture and self in South Africa: individualism-collectivism predictions.

    PubMed

    Eaton, L; Louw, J

    2000-04-01

    People from collectivist cultures may have more concrete and interdependent self-concepts than do people from individualist cultures (G. Hofstede, 1980). African cultures are considered collectivist (H. C. Triandis, 1989), but research on self-concept and culture has neglected this continent. The authors attempted a partial replication in an African context of cross-cultural findings on the abstract-concrete and independent-interdependent dimensions of self-construal (referred to as the abstract-specific and the autonomous-social dimensions, respectively, by E. Rhee, J. S. Uleman, H. K. Lee, & R. J. Roman, 1995). University students in South Africa took the 20 Statements Test (M. Kuhn & T. S. McPartland, 1954; Rhee et al.); home languages were rough indicators of cultural identity. The authors used 3 coding schemes to analyze the content of 78 protocols from African-language speakers and 77 protocols from English speakers. In accord with predictions from individualism-collectivism theory, the African-language speakers produced more interdependent and concrete self-descriptions than did the English speakers. Additional findings concerned the orthogonality of the 2 dimensions and the nature and assessment of the social self-concept. PMID:10808644

  4. Individual Differences in Nonsymbolic Ratio Processing Predict Symbolic Math Performance.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Percival G; Lewis, Mark Rose; Hubbard, Edward M

    2016-02-01

    What basic capacities lay the foundation for advanced numerical cognition? Are there basic nonsymbolic abilities that support the understanding of advanced numerical concepts, such as fractions? To date, most theories have posited that previously identified core numerical systems, such as the approximate number system (ANS), are ill-suited for learning fraction concepts. However, recent research in developmental psychology and neuroscience has revealed a ratio-processing system (RPS) that is sensitive to magnitudes of nonsymbolic ratios and may be ideally suited for supporting fraction concepts. We provide evidence for this hypothesis by showing that individual differences in RPS acuity predict performance on four measures of mathematical competence, including a university entrance exam in algebra. We suggest that the nonsymbolic RPS may support symbolic fraction understanding much as the ANS supports whole-number concepts. Thus, even abstract mathematical concepts, such as fractions, may be grounded not only in higher-order logic and language, but also in basic nonsymbolic processing abilities. PMID:26710824

  5. Predicting Change in Postpartum Depression: An Individual Growth Curve Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buchanan, Trey

    Recently, methodologists interested in examining problems associated with measuring change have suggested that developmental researchers should focus upon assessing change at both intra-individual and inter-individual levels. This study used an application of individual growth curve analysis to the problem of maternal postpartum depression.…

  6. Benchmarking the Predictive Power of Ligand Efficiency Indices in QSAR.

    PubMed

    Cortes-Ciriano, Isidro

    2016-08-22

    Compound physicochemical properties favoring in vitro potency are not always correlated to desirable pharmacokinetic profiles. Therefore, using potency (i.e., IC50) as the main criterion to prioritize candidate drugs at early stage drug discovery campaigns has been questioned. Yet, the vast majority of the virtual screening models reported in the medicinal chemistry literature predict the biological activity of compounds by regressing in vitro potency on topological or physicochemical descriptors. Two studies published in this journal showed that higher predictive power on external molecules can be achieved by using ligand efficiency indices as the dependent variable instead of a metric of potency (IC50) or binding affinity (Ki). The present study aims at filling the shortage of a thorough assessment of the predictive power of ligand efficiency indices in QSAR. To this aim, the predictive power of 11 ligand efficiency indices has been benchmarked across four algorithms (Gradient Boosting Machines, Partial Least Squares, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines), two descriptor types (Morgan fingerprints, and physicochemical descriptors), and 29 data sets collected from the literature and ChEMBL database. Ligand efficiency metrics led to the highest predictive power on external molecules irrespective of the descriptor type or algorithm used, with an R(2)test difference of ∼0.3 units and a this difference ∼0.4 units when modeling small data sets and a normalized RMSE decrease of >0.1 units in some cases. Polarity indices, such as SEI and NSEI, led to higher predictive power than metrics based on molecular size, i.e., BEI, NBEI, and LE. LELP, which comprises a polarity factor (cLogP) and a size parameter (LE) constantly led to the most predictive models, suggesting that these two properties convey a complementary predictive signal. Overall, this study suggests that using ligand efficiency indices as the dependent variable might be an efficient strategy to model

  7. On the uncertainty of individual prediction because of sampling predictors.

    PubMed

    Shen, Changyu; Li, Xiaochun

    2016-05-30

    Prediction of an outcome for a given unit based on prediction models built on a training sample plays a major role in many research areas. The uncertainty of the prediction is predominantly characterized by the subject sampling variation in current practice, where prediction models built on hypothetically re-sampled units yield variable predictions for the same unit of interest. It is almost always true that the predictors used to build prediction models are simply a subset of the entirety of factors related to the outcome. Following the frequentist principle, we can account for the variation because of hypothetically re-sampled predictors used to build the prediction models. This is particularly important in medicine where the prediction has important and sometime life-death consequences on a patient's health status. In this article, we discuss some rationale along this line in the context of medicine. We propose a simple approach to estimate the standard error of the prediction that accounts for the variation because of sampling both subjects and predictors under logistic and Cox regression models. A simulation study is presented to support our argument and demonstrate the performance of our method. The concept and method are applied to a real data set. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26712471

  8. Predicting Optimal Preference Assessment Methods for Individuals with Developmental Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Kendra M.; Czarnecki, Diana; Martin, Toby L.; Yu, C. T.; Martin, Garry L.

    2007-01-01

    The single-stimulus (SS) preference assessment procedure has been described as more appropriate than the paired stimulus (PS) procedure for "lower functioning" individuals, but this guideline's vagueness limits its usefulness. We administered the SS and PS preference assessment procedures with food items to seven individuals with severe or…

  9. ANNIT - An Efficient Inversion Algorithm based on Prediction Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Růžek, B.; Kolář, P.

    2009-04-01

    Solution of inverse problems represents meaningful job in geophysics. The amount of data is continuously increasing, methods of modeling are being improved and the computer facilities are also advancing great technical progress. Therefore the development of new and efficient algorithms and computer codes for both forward and inverse modeling is still up to date. ANNIT is contributing to this stream since it is a tool for efficient solution of a set of non-linear equations. Typical geophysical problems are based on parametric approach. The system is characterized by a vector of parameters p, the response of the system is characterized by a vector of data d. The forward problem is usually represented by unique mapping F(p)=d. The inverse problem is much more complex and the inverse mapping p=G(d) is available in an analytical or closed form only exceptionally and generally it may not exist at all. Technically, both forward and inverse mapping F and G are sets of non-linear equations. ANNIT solves such situation as follows: (i) joint subspaces {pD, pM} of original data and model spaces D, M, resp. are searched for, within which the forward mapping F is sufficiently smooth that the inverse mapping G does exist, (ii) numerical approximation of G in subspaces {pD, pM} is found, (iii) candidate solution is predicted by using this numerical approximation. ANNIT is working in an iterative way in cycles. The subspaces {pD, pM} are searched for by generating suitable populations of individuals (models) covering data and model spaces. The approximation of the inverse mapping is made by using three methods: (a) linear regression, (b) Radial Basis Function Network technique, (c) linear prediction (also known as "Kriging"). The ANNIT algorithm has built in also an archive of already evaluated models. Archive models are re-used in a suitable way and thus the number of forward evaluations is minimized. ANNIT is now implemented both in MATLAB and SCILAB. Numerical tests show good

  10. Generalization on the Basis of Prior Experience Is Predicted by Individual Differences in Working Memory.

    PubMed

    Lenaert, Bert; van de Ven, Vincent; Kaas, Amanda L; Vlaeyen, Johan W S

    2016-01-01

    Generalization on the basis of prior experience is a central feature of human and nonhuman behavior, and anomalies in generalization can give rise to a wide array of problems. For instance, elevated levels of generalization have been shown in individuals suffering from an anxiety disorder. Identifying the individual difference variables that influence the extent to which behavior generalizes to novel stimuli may help our understanding of generalization and its potential maladaptive consequences. In this study, we first present an index of generalization that captures individual differences in generalization in a single continuous measure, thereby surpassing problems associated with traditional analyzing techniques. Further, we investigate whether generalization is predicted by working memory capacity. More precisely, it is hypothesized that generalization is a function of individual differences in the capacity to compare the current situation with previous learning experiences in working memory, and to adjust subsequent behavior accordingly. In a community sample, we found higher levels of generalization in individuals who were less efficient at filtering out irrelevant information from access to working memory. These results suggest that working memory impairments may contribute to elevated and potentially maladaptive levels of generalization. PMID:26763503

  11. Predicting Children's Depressive Symptoms from Community and Individual Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dallaire, Danielle H.; Cole, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.; Ciesla, Jeffrey A.; LaGrange, Beth; Jacquez, Farrah M.; Pineda, Ashley Q.; Truss, Alanna E.; Folmer, Amy S.

    2008-01-01

    Community, demographic, familial, and personal risk factors of childhood depressive symptoms were examined from an ecological theoretical approach using hierarchical linear modeling. Individual-level data were collected from an ethnically diverse (73% African-American) community sample of 197 children and their parents; community-level data were…

  12. Predicting Eighth-Grade Algebra Students with Individualized Education Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Valerie N.; Crossland, Cathy L.; Stiff, Lee V.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the extent to which student performance and teacher perception of student performance affect placement in eighth-grade mathematics classes for students with disabilities. Authors used the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten dataset to investigate how each of the following factors predicted placement in…

  13. Coherent Motion Sensitivity Predicts Individual Differences in Subtraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boets, Bart; De Smedt, Bert; Ghesquiere, Pol

    2011-01-01

    Recent findings suggest deficits in coherent motion sensitivity, an index of visual dorsal stream functioning, in children with poor mathematical skills or dyscalculia, a specific learning disability in mathematics. We extended these data using a longitudinal design to unravel whether visual dorsal stream functioning is able to "predict"…

  14. Improving Intra Prediction in High-Efficiency Video Coding.

    PubMed

    Chen, Haoming; Zhang, Tao; Sun, Ming-Ting; Saxena, Ankur; Budagavi, Madhukar

    2016-08-01

    Intra prediction is an important tool in intra-frame video coding to reduce the spatial redundancy. In current coding standard H.265/high-efficiency video coding (HEVC), a copying-based method based on the boundary (or interpolated boundary) reference pixels is used to predict each pixel in the coding block to remove the spatial redundancy. We find that the conventional copying-based method can be further improved in two cases: 1) the boundary has an inhomogeneous region and 2) the predicted pixel is far away from the boundary that the correlation between the predicted pixel and the reference pixels is relatively weak. This paper performs a theoretical analysis of the optimal weights based on a first-order Gaussian Markov model and the effects when the pixel values deviate from the model and the predicted pixel is far away from the reference pixels. It also proposes a novel intra prediction scheme based on the analysis that smoothing the copying-based prediction can derive a better prediction block. Both the theoretical analysis and the experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed intra prediction method. An average gain of 2.3% on all intra coding can be achieved with the HEVC reference software. PMID:27249831

  15. Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence

    SciTech Connect

    Corley, Courtney D.; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-04-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and hpv is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials and it is currently available in the United States. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step towards automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a texts affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age and gender targeted vaccination schemes.

  16. Individual differences in infants' information processing: reliability, stability, and prediction.

    PubMed

    Rose, S A; Feldman, J F; Wallace, I F

    1988-10-01

    A group of 46 full-term and 54 high-risk preterm (less than 1,500 grams birthweight) infants were tested at 6, 7, and/or 8 months of age (corrected age for preterms) on a battery of problems assessing visual recognition memory and tactual-visual cross-modal transfer. At all 3 ages, scores obtained on aggregates of 6-11 problems in the battery significantly predicted 3-year Stanford-Binet IQ: correlations ranged from r = .37 to r = .63, and clustered between r = .50 and r = .60. When aggregates from 2 or 3 ages were used as predictors, multiple correlations were as high as R = .60 and R = .70. Cutoffs for predicting children at risk for mental retardation (IQ less than 70) or cognitive delay (IQ less than 85) showed reasonable sensitivity and specificity, although low scores were poor at detecting IQs less than 70. The internal consistency of composites, indexed by alpha coefficients, was unexpectedly low, primarily because the problems shared little variance. However, stability coefficients between assessments as much as 1 and 2 months apart were moderate in magnitude, ranging from r = .30 to r = .50. Considering the high degree of predictive validity, the stability figures appear to be better estimates of reliability for these measures than are indices of internal consistency. The relations reported here were similar for both full-terms and preterms. PMID:3168635

  17. Comparison of measured efficiencies of nine turbine designs with efficiencies predicted by two empirical methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, Robert E; Cavicchi, Richard H

    1951-01-01

    Empirical methods of Ainley and Kochendorfer and Nettles were used to predict performances of nine turbine designs. Measured and predicted performances were compared. Appropriate values of blade-loss parameter were determined for the method of Kochendorfer and Nettles. The measured design-point efficiencies were lower than predicted by as much as 0.09 (Ainley and 0.07 (Kochendorfer and Nettles). For the method of Kochendorfer and Nettles, appropriate values of blade-loss parameter ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 and the off-design performance was accurately predicted.

  18. Socioeconomic gradients predict individual differences in neurocognitive abilities.

    PubMed

    Noble, Kimberly G; McCandliss, Bruce D; Farah, Martha J

    2007-07-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with childhood cognitive achievement. In previous research we found that this association shows neural specificity; specifically we found that groups of low and middle SES children differed disproportionately in perisylvian/language and prefrontal/executive abilities relative to other neurocognitive abilities. Here we address several new questions: To what extent does this disparity between groups reflect a gradient of SES-related individual differences in neurocognitive development, as opposed to a more categorical difference? What other neurocognitive systems differ across individuals as a function of SES? Does linguistic ability mediate SES differences in other systems? And how do specific prefrontal/executive subsystems vary with SES? One hundred and fifty healthy, socioeconomically diverse first-graders were administered tasks tapping language, visuospatial skills, memory, working memory, cognitive control, and reward processing. SES explained over 30% of the variance in language, and a smaller but highly significant portion of the variance in most other systems. Statistically mediating factors and possible interventional approaches are discussed. PMID:17552936

  19. Efficient Modelling and Prediction of Meshing Noise from Chain Drives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ZHENG, H.; WANG, Y. Y.; LIU, G. R.; LAM, K. Y.; QUEK, K. P.; ITO, T.; NOGUCHI, Y.

    2001-08-01

    This paper presents a practical approach for predicting the meshing noise due to the impact of chain rollers against the sprocket of chain drives. An acoustical model relating dynamic response of rollers and its induced sound pressure is developed based on the fact that the acoustic field is mainly created by oscillating rigid cylindrical rollers. Finite element techniques and numerical software codes are employed to model and simulate the acceleration response of each chain roller which is necessary for noise level prediction of a chain drive under varying operation conditions and different sprocket configurations. The predicted acoustic pressure levels of meshing noise are compared with the available experimental measurements. It is shown that the predictions are in reasonable agreement with the experiments and the approach enables designers to obtain required information on the noise level of a selected chain drive in a time- and cost-efficient manner.

  20. Individual differences in holistic processing predict face recognition ability.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ruosi; Li, Jingguang; Fang, Huizhen; Tian, Moqian; Liu, Jia

    2012-02-01

    Why do some people recognize faces easily and others frequently make mistakes in recognizing faces? Classic behavioral work has shown that faces are processed in a distinctive holistic manner that is unlike the processing of objects. In the study reported here, we investigated whether individual differences in holistic face processing have a significant influence on face recognition. We found that the magnitude of face-specific recognition accuracy correlated with the extent to which participants processed faces holistically, as indexed by the composite-face effect and the whole-part effect. This association is due to face-specific processing in particular, not to a more general aspect of cognitive processing, such as general intelligence or global attention. This finding provides constraints on computational models of face recognition and may elucidate mechanisms underlying cognitive disorders, such as prosopagnosia and autism, that are associated with deficits in face recognition. PMID:22222218

  1. Patient Characteristics Predicting Readmission Among Individuals Hospitalized for Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    O'Connor, Melissa; Murtaugh, Christopher M.; Shah, Shivani; Barrón-Vaya, Yolanda; Bowles, Kathryn H.; Peng, Timothy R.; Zhu, Carolyn W.; Feldman, Penny H.

    2015-01-01

    Heart failure is difficult to manage and increasingly common with many individuals experiencing frequent hospitalizations. Little is known about patient factors consistently associated with hospital readmission. A literature review was conducted to identify heart failure patient characteristics, measured before discharge, that contribute to variation in hospital readmission rates. Database searches yielded 950 potential articles, of which 34 studies met inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics generally have a very modest effect on all-cause or heart failure–related readmission within 7 to 180 days of index hospital discharge. A range of cardiac diseases and other comorbidities only minimally increase readmission rates. No single patient characteristic stands out as a key contributor across multiple studies underscoring the challenge of developing successful interventions to reduce readmissions. Interventions may need to be general in design with the specific intervention depending on each patient's unique clinical profile. PMID:26180045

  2. An analytical method to predict efficiency of aircraft gearboxes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, N. E.; Loewenthal, S. H.; Black, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    A spur gear efficiency prediction method previously developed by the authors was extended to include power loss of planetary gearsets. A friction coefficient model was developed for MIL-L-7808 oil based on disc machine data. This combined with the recent capability of predicting losses in spur gears of nonstandard proportions allows the calculation of power loss for complete aircraft gearboxes that utilize spur gears. The method was applied to the T56/501 turboprop gearbox and compared with measured test data. Bearing losses were calculated with large scale computer programs. Breakdowns of the gearbox losses point out areas for possible improvement.

  3. Individual variability in behavioral flexibility predicts sign-tracking tendency

    PubMed Central

    Nasser, Helen M.; Chen, Yu-Wei; Fiscella, Kimberly; Calu, Donna J.

    2015-01-01

    Sign-tracking rats show heightened sensitivity to food- and drug-associated cues, which serve as strong incentives for driving reward seeking. We hypothesized that this enhanced incentive drive is accompanied by an inflexibility when incentive value changes. To examine this we tested rats in Pavlovian outcome devaluation or second-order conditioning prior to the assessment of sign-tracking tendency. To assess behavioral flexibility we trained rats to associate a light with a food outcome. After the food was devalued by pairing with illness, we measured conditioned responding (CR) to the light during an outcome devaluation probe test. The level of CR during outcome devaluation probe test correlated with the rats' subsequent tracking tendency, with sign-tracking rats failing to suppress CR to the light after outcome devaluation. To assess Pavlovian incentive learning, we trained rats on first-order (CS+, CS−) and second-order (SOCS+, SOCS−) discriminations. After second-order conditioning, we measured CR to the second-order cues during a probe test. Second-order conditioning was observed across all rats regardless of tracking tendency. The behavioral inflexibility of sign-trackers has potential relevance for understanding individual variation in vulnerability to drug addiction. PMID:26578917

  4. Individual Differences in Personality Predict How People Look at Faces

    PubMed Central

    Perlman, Susan B.; Morris, James P.; Vander Wyk, Brent C.; Green, Steven R.; Doyle, Jaime L.; Pelphrey, Kevin A.

    2009-01-01

    Background Determining the ways in which personality traits interact with contextual determinants to shape social behavior remains an important area of empirical investigation. The specific personality trait of neuroticism has been related to characteristic negative emotionality and associated with heightened attention to negative, emotionally arousing environmental signals. However, the mechanisms by which this personality trait may shape social behavior remain largely unspecified. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed eye tracking to investigate the relationship between characteristics of visual scanpaths in response to emotional facial expressions and individual differences in personality. We discovered that the amount of time spent looking at the eyes of fearful faces was positively related to neuroticism. Conclusions/Significance This finding is discussed in relation to previous behavioral research relating personality to selective attention for trait-congruent emotional information, neuroimaging studies relating differences in personality to amygdala reactivity to socially relevant stimuli, and genetic studies suggesting linkages between the serotonin transporter gene and neuroticism. We conclude that personality may be related to interpersonal interaction by shaping aspects of social cognition as basic as eye contact. In this way, eye gaze represents a possible behavioral link in a complex relationship between genes, brain function, and personality. PMID:19543398

  5. Individual Differences in Impulsivity Predict Anticipatory Eye Movements

    PubMed Central

    Cirilli, Laetitia; de Timary, Philippe; Lefèvre, Phillipe; Missal, Marcus

    2011-01-01

    Impulsivity is the tendency to act without forethought. It is a personality trait commonly used in the diagnosis of many psychiatric diseases. In clinical practice, impulsivity is estimated using written questionnaires. However, answers to questions might be subject to personal biases and misinterpretations. In order to alleviate this problem, eye movements could be used to study differences in decision processes related to impulsivity. Therefore, we investigated correlations between impulsivity scores obtained with a questionnaire in healthy subjects and characteristics of their anticipatory eye movements in a simple smooth pursuit task. Healthy subjects were asked to answer the UPPS questionnaire (Urgency Premeditation Perseverance and Sensation seeking Impulsive Behavior scale), which distinguishes four independent dimensions of impulsivity: Urgency, lack of Premeditation, lack of Perseverance, and Sensation seeking. The same subjects took part in an oculomotor task that consisted of pursuing a target that moved in a predictable direction. This task reliably evoked anticipatory saccades and smooth eye movements. We found that eye movement characteristics such as latency and velocity were significantly correlated with UPPS scores. The specific correlations between distinct UPPS factors and oculomotor anticipation parameters support the validity of the UPPS construct and corroborate neurobiological explanations for impulsivity. We suggest that the oculomotor approach of impulsivity put forth in the present study could help bridge the gap between psychiatry and physiology. PMID:22046334

  6. A new protein structure representation for efficient protein function prediction.

    PubMed

    Maghawry, Huda A; Mostafa, Mostafa G M; Gharib, Tarek F

    2014-12-01

    One of the challenging problems in bioinformatics is the prediction of protein function. Protein function is the main key that can be used to classify different proteins. Protein function can be inferred experimentally with very small throughput or computationally with very high throughput. Computational methods are sequence based or structure based. Structure-based methods produce more accurate protein function prediction. In this article, we propose a new protein structure representation for efficient protein function prediction. The representation is based on three-dimensional patterns of protein residues. In the analysis, we used protein function based on enzyme activity through six mechanistically diverse enzyme superfamilies: amidohydrolase, crotonase, haloacid dehalogenase, isoprenoid synthase type I, and vicinal oxygen chelate. We applied three different classification methods, naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest, to predict the enzyme superfamily of a given protein. The prediction accuracy using the proposed representation outperforms a recently introduced representation method that is based only on the distance patterns. The results show that the proposed representation achieved prediction accuracy up to 98%, with improvement of about 10% on average. PMID:25343279

  7. Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition: The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mozer, Michael C.; Pashler, Harold; Homaei, Hadjar

    2008-01-01

    Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect…

  8. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  9. Individual but not fragile: individual differences in task control predict Stroop facilitation.

    PubMed

    Kalanthroff, E; Henik, A

    2013-06-01

    The Stroop effect is composed of interference and facilitation effects. The facilitation is less stable and thus many times is referred to as a "fragile effect". Here we suggest the facilitation effect is highly vulnerable to individual differences in control over the task conflict (between relevant color naming and irrelevant word reading in the Stroop task). We replicated previous findings of a significant correlation between stop-signal reaction time (SSRT) and Stroop interference, and also found a significant correlation between SSRT and the Stroop facilitation effect-participants with low inhibitory control (i.e., long SSRT) had no facilitation effect or even a reversed one. These results shed new light on the "fragile" facilitation effect and highlight the necessity of awareness of task conflict, especially in the Stroop task. PMID:23416541

  10. TPV efficiency predictions and measurements for a closed cavity geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Gethers, C.K.; Ballinger, C.T.; Postlethwait, M.A.; DePoy, D.M.; Baldasaro, P.F.

    1997-05-01

    A thermophotovoltaic (TPV) efficiency measurement, within a closed cavity, is an integrated test which incorporates four fundamental parameters of TPV direct energy conversion. These are: (1) the TPV devices, (2) spectral control, (3) a radiation/photon source, and (4) closed cavity geometry affects. The overall efficiency of the TPV device is controlled by the TPV cell performance, the spectral control characteristics, the radiator temperature and the geometric arrangement. Controlled efficiency measurements and predictions provide valuable feedback on all four. This paper describes and compares two computer codes developed to model 16, 1 cm{sup 2} TPV cells (in a 4x4 configuration) in a cavity geometry. The first code subdivides the infrared spectrum into several bands and then numerically integrates over the spectrum to provide absorbed heat flux and cell performance predictions (assuming infinite parallel plates). The second utilizes a Monte Carlo Ray-Tracing code that tracks photons, from birth at the radiation source, until they either escape or are absorbed. Absorption depends upon energy dependent reflection probabilities assigned to every geometrical surface within the cavity. The model also has the capability of tallying above and below bandgap absorptions (as a function of location) and can support various radiator temperature profiles. The arrays are fabricated using 0.55 eV InGaAs cells with Si/SiO interference filters for spectral control and at steady state conditions, array efficiency was calculated as the ratio of the load matched power to its absorbed heat flux. Preliminary experimental results are also compared with predictions.

  11. TPV efficiency measurements and predictions for a closed cavity geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Gethers, C.K.; Ballinger, C.T.; Postlethwait, M.A.; DePoy, D.M.; Baldasaro, P.F.

    1997-05-01

    A thermophotovoltaic (TPV) efficiency measurement, within a closed cavity, is an integrated test which incorporates four fundamental parameters of TPV direct energy conversion. These are: (1) the TPV devices, (2) spectral control, (3) a radiation/photon source, and (4) closed cavity geometry effects. The overall efficiency of the TPV device is controlled by the TP cell performance, the spectral control characteristics, the radiator temperature and the geometric arrangement. Controlled efficiency measurements and predictions provide valuable feedback on all four. This paper describes and compares two computer codes developed to model 16, 1 cm{sup 2} TPV cells (in a 4 x 4 configuration) in a cavity geometry. The first code, subdivides the infrared spectrum into several bands and then numerically integrates over the spectrum to provide absorbed heat flux and cell electrical output performance predictions (assuming infinite parallel plates). The second code, utilizes a Monte Carlo Photon Transport code that tracks photons, from birth at the radiation source, until they either escape or are absorbed. Absorption depends upon energy dependent reflection probabilities assigned to every geometrical surface within the cavity. The model also has the capability of tallying above and below bandgap absorptions (as a function of location) and can support various radiator temperature profiles. The arrays were fabricated using 0.55 eV InGaAs cells with Si/SiO interference filters for spectral control and at steady state conditions, array efficiency was calculated as the ratio of the load matched power to its absorbed heat flux. Preliminary experimental results are also compared with predictions.

  12. Prediction of 2-level PWM inverter efficiency using MATLAB/Simulink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Yoon-Ho; Kim, Seong-Je

    2015-10-01

    This article proposes a direct approach for the prediction of inverter efficiency using MATLAB/Simulink, instead of an indirect loss calculation approach based on analytical models. In analytical approach, efficiency is obtained by calculating individual losses separately, such as switching losses, conduction losses and harmonic losses using analytical models. However, this approach requires accurate analytical models and complicated calculations, due to the variation in the switching frequency, switching transient and modulation techniques. In the proposed approach, the actual waveform of the inverter system is directly generated using MATLAB/Simulink. The instantaneous voltage and current waveform including switching transients are generated. Thus, the proposed approach is very simple and convenient for efficiency prediction. The proposed approach also works for any system parameters or control methods, such as various pulse-width modulation (PWM) techniques, different switching frequencies, switching devices and load types. The proposed approach can be adopted for the efficiency prediction of any switching strategies and any types of inverters such as neutral-point-clamped (NPC) inverters, H bridge inverters and H5 topology, since the topologies are modelled as circuits in the MATLAB/Simulink program and no analytical model is required for the proposed approach. Furthermore, the proposed approach can provide operation techniques and conditions such as PWM techniques and switching frequency that offer high efficiency. In this article, inverter performance is evaluated for various PWM techniques and switching frequencies. The PWM technique and switching frequency that offer high efficiency is obtained. Finally, the proposed approach is verified by experimental results.

  13. Ordinal classification for efficient plant stress prediction in hyperspectral data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behmann, J.; Schmitter, P.; Steinrücken, J.; Plümer, L.

    2014-09-01

    Detection of crop stress from hyperspectral images is of high importance for breeding and precision crop protection. However, the continuous monitoring of stress in phenotyping facilities by hyperspectral imagers produces huge amounts of uninterpreted data. In order to derive a stress description from the images, interpreting algorithms with high prediction performance are required. Based on a static model, the local stress state of each pixel has to be predicted. Due to the low computational complexity, linear models are preferable. In this paper, we focus on drought-induced stress which is represented by discrete stages of ordinal order. We present and compare five methods which are able to derive stress levels from hyperspectral images: One-vs.-one Support Vector Machine (SVM), one-vs.-all SVM, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Ordinal Regression (SVORIM) and Linear Ordinal SVM classification. The methods are applied on two data sets - a real world set of drought stress in single barley plants and a simulated data set. It is shown, that Linear Ordinal SVM is a powerful tool for applications which require high prediction performance under limited resources. It is significantly more efficient than the one-vs.-one SVM and even more efficient than the less accurate one-vs.-all SVM. Compared to the very compact SVORIM model, it represents the senescence process much more accurate.

  14. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    PubMed

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual. PMID:22943555

  15. Striatal structure and function predict individual biases in learning to avoid pain

    PubMed Central

    Eldar, Eran; Hauser, Tobias U.; Dayan, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2016-01-01

    Pain is an elemental inducer of avoidance. Here, we demonstrate that people differ in how they learn to avoid pain, with some individuals refraining from actions that resulted in painful outcomes, whereas others favor actions that helped prevent pain. These individual biases were best explained by differences in learning from outcome prediction errors and were associated with distinct forms of striatal responses to painful outcomes. Specifically, striatal responses to pain were modulated in a manner consistent with an aversive prediction error in individuals who learned predominantly from pain, whereas in individuals who learned predominantly from success in preventing pain, modulation was consistent with an appetitive prediction error. In contrast, striatal responses to success in preventing pain were consistent with an appetitive prediction error in both groups. Furthermore, variation in striatal structure, encompassing the region where pain prediction errors were expressed, predicted participants’ predominant mode of learning, suggesting the observed learning biases may reflect stable individual traits. These results reveal functional and structural neural components underlying individual differences in avoidance learning, which may be important contributors to psychiatric disorders involving pathological harm avoidance behavior. PMID:27071092

  16. An unsteady aerodynamic formulation for efficient rotor tonal noise prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gennaretti, M.; Testa, C.; Bernardini, G.

    2013-12-01

    An aerodynamic/aeroacoustic solution methodology for predction of tonal noise emitted by helicopter rotors and propellers is presented. It is particularly suited for configurations dominated by localized, high-frequency inflow velocity fields as those generated by blade-vortex interactions. The unsteady pressure distributions are determined by the sectional, frequency-domain Küssner-Schwarz formulation, with downwash including the wake inflow velocity predicted by a three-dimensional, unsteady, panel-method formulation suited for the analysis of rotors operating in complex aerodynamic environments. The radiated noise is predicted through solution of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation. The proposed approach yields a computationally efficient solution procedure that may be particularly useful in preliminary design/multidisciplinary optimization applications. It is validated through comparisons with solutions that apply the airloads directly evaluated by the time-marching, panel-method formulation. The results are provided in terms of blade loads, noise signatures and sound pressure level contours. An estimation of the computational efficiency of the proposed solution process is also presented.

  17. Predicting Individuals' Turnover and Internal Transfer Behavior. Wisconsin Working Paper 6-82-31.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, M. Susan; Covaleski, Mark A.

    Researchers have spent considerable time and effort in the last 5 years developing process models to explain individuals' job turnover behavior. To examine the predictability of internal job transfers and turnover behavior from individuals' work values, career plans, and job satisfaction, nurses (N=160) completed questionnaires on demographic…

  18. Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

    PubMed Central

    Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in

  19. Individual differences in activation of the parental care motivational system: assessment, prediction, and implications.

    PubMed

    Buckels, Erin E; Beall, Alec T; Hofer, Marlise K; Lin, Eden Y; Zhou, Zenan; Schaller, Mark

    2015-03-01

    We report on the development, validation, and utility of a measure assessing individual differences in activation of the parental care motivational system: The Parental Care and Tenderness (PCAT) questionnaire. Results from 1,608 adults (including parents and nonparents) show that the 25-item PCAT measure has high internal consistency, high test-retest reliability, high construct validity, and unique predictive utility. Among parents, it predicted self-child identity overlap and caring child-rearing attitudes; among nonparents, it predicted desire to have children. PCAT scores predicted the intensity of tender emotions aroused by infants, and also predicted the amount of time individuals chose look at infant (but not adult) faces. PCAT scores uniquely predicted additional outcomes in the realm of social perception, including mate preferences, moral judgments, and trait inferences about baby-faced adults. Practical and conceptual implications are discussed. PMID:25559194

  20. Prediction aluminum corrosion inhibitor efficiency using artificial neural network (ANN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebrahimi, Sh; Kalhor, E. G.; Nabavi, S. R.; Alamiparvin, L.; Pogaku, R.

    2016-06-01

    In this study, activity of some Schiff bases as aluminum corrosion inhibitor was investigated using artificial neural network (ANN). Hence, corrosion inhibition efficiency of Schiff bases (in any type) were gathered from different references. Then these molecules were drawn and optimized in Hyperchem software. Molecular descriptors generating and descriptors selection were fulfilled by Dragon software and principal component analysis (PCA) method, respectively. These structural descriptors along with environmental descriptors (ambient temperature, time of exposure, pH and the concentration of inhibitor) were used as input variables. Furthermore, aluminum corrosion inhibition efficiency was used as output variable. Experimental data were split into three sets: training set (for model building) and test set (for model validation) and simulation (for general model). Modeling was performed by Multiple linear regression (MLR) methods and artificial neural network (ANN). The results obtained in linear models showed poor correlation between experimental and theoretical data. However nonlinear model presented satisfactory results. Higher correlation coefficient of ANN (R > 0.9) revealed that ANN can be successfully applied for prediction of aluminum corrosion inhibitor efficiency of Schiff bases in different environmental conditions.

  1. Individualized relapse prediction: personality measures and striatal and insular activity during reward-processing robustly predict relapse*

    PubMed Central

    Gowin, Joshua L.; Ball, Tali M.; Wittmann, Marc; Tapert, Susan F.; Paulus, Martin P.

    2015-01-01

    Background Nearly half of individuals with substance use disorders relapse in the year after treatment. A diagnostic tool to help clinicians make decisions regarding treatment does not exist for psychiatric conditions. Identifying individuals with high risk for relapse to substance use following abstinence has profound clinical consequences. This study aimed to develop neuroimaging as a robust tool to predict relapse. Methods 68 methamphetamine-dependent adults (15 female) were recruited from 28-day inpatient treatment. During treatment, participants completed a functional MRI scan that examined brain activation during reward processing. Patients were followed 1 year later to assess abstinence. We examined brain activation during reward processing between relapsing and abstaining individuals and employed three random forest prediction models (clinical and personality measures, neuroimaging measures, a combined model) to generate predictions for each participant regarding their relapse likelihood. Results 18 individuals relapsed. There were significant group by reward-size interactions for neural activation in the left insula and right striatum for rewards. Abstaining individuals showed increased activation for large, risky relative to small, safe rewards, whereas relapsing individuals failed to show differential activation between reward types. All three random forest models yielded good test characteristics such that a positive test for relapse yielded a likelihood ratio 2.63, whereas a negative test had a likelihood ratio of 0.48. Conclusions These findings suggest that neuroimaging can be developed in combination with other measures as an instrument to predict relapse, advancing tools providers can use to make decisions about individualized treatment of substance use disorders. PMID:25977206

  2. Task-free MRI predicts individual differences in brain activity during task performance.

    PubMed

    Tavor, I; Parker Jones, O; Mars, R B; Smith, S M; Behrens, T E; Jbabdi, S

    2016-04-01

    When asked to perform the same task, different individuals exhibit markedly different patterns of brain activity. This variability is often attributed to volatile factors, such as task strategy or compliance. We propose that individual differences in brain responses are, to a large degree, inherent to the brain and can be predicted from task-independent measurements collected at rest. Using a large set of task conditions, spanning several behavioral domains, we train a simple model that relates task-independent measurements to task activity and evaluate the model by predicting task activation maps for unseen subjects using magnetic resonance imaging. Our model can accurately predict individual differences in brain activity and highlights a coupling between brain connectivity and function that can be captured at the level of individual subjects. PMID:27124457

  3. Prediction of Giant Thermoelectric Efficiency in Crystals with Interlaced Nanostructure.

    PubMed

    Puzyrev, Y S; Shen, X; Pantelides, S T

    2016-01-13

    We present a theoretical study of the thermoelectric efficiency of "interlaced crystals", recently discovered in hexagonal-CuInS2 nanoparticles. Interlaced crystals are I-III-VI2 or II-IV-V2 tetrahedrally bonded compounds. They have a perfect Bravais lattice in which the two cations have an infinite set of possible ordering patterns within the cation sublattice. The material comprises nanoscale interlaced domains and phases with corresponding boundaries. Here we employ density functional theory and large-scale molecular dynamics calculations based on model classical potentials to demonstrate that the phase and domain boundaries are effective phonon scatterers and greatly suppress thermal conductivity. However, the absence of both structural defects and strain in the interlaced material results in a minimal effect on electronic properties. We predict an increase of thermal resistivity of up to 2 orders of magnitude, which makes interlaced crystals an exceptional candidate for thermoelectric applications. PMID:26691292

  4. Individual differences in distraction by motion predicted by neural activity in MT/V5

    PubMed Central

    Lechak, Jennifer R.; Leber, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals differ substantially in their susceptibility to distraction by irrelevant visual information. Previous research has uncovered how individual variability in the goal-driven component of attentional control influences distraction, yet it remains unknown whether other sources of variability between individuals also predict distraction. In this fMRI study, we showed that an individual's inherent sensitivity to passively viewed visual motion predicts his/her susceptibility to distraction by motion. Bilateral MT/V5 was localized in participants during passive viewing of moving stimuli, affording a baseline measure of motion sensitivity. Next, participants performed a visual search task with an irrelevant motion singleton distractor, and both behavioral and neural indices of distraction were recorded. Results revealed that both of these indices were predicted by the independent index of motion sensitivity. An additional analysis of moment-to-moment fluctuations in distraction within individuals revealed that distraction could be predicted by pretrial fMRI activity in several brain regions, including MT+, which likely reflected the observer's momentary propensity to process motion. Together, these results shed light on how variability in factors other than goal-driven processing, both within and between individuals, affects attentional control and one's perception of the visual world. PMID:22375110

  5. Individual differences in spatial configuration learning predict the occurrence of intrusive memories.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Thomas; Smeets, Tom; Giesbrecht, Timo; Quaedflieg, Conny W E M; Girardelli, Marta M; Mackay, Georgina R N; Merckelbach, Harald

    2013-03-01

    The dual-representation model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Brewin, Gregory, Lipton, & Burgess, Psychological Review, 117, 210-232 2010) argues that intrusions occur when people fail to construct context-based representations during adverse experiences. The present study tested a specific prediction flowing from this model. In particular, we investigated whether the efficiency of temporal-lobe-based spatial configuration learning would account for individual differences in intrusive experiences and physiological reactivity in the laboratory. Participants (N = 82) completed the contextual cuing paradigm, which assesses spatial configuration learning that is believed to depend on associative encoding in the parahippocampus. They were then shown a trauma film. Afterward, startle responses were quantified during presentation of trauma reminder pictures versus unrelated neutral and emotional pictures. PTSD symptoms were recorded in the week following participation. Better configuration learning performance was associated with fewer perceptual intrusions, r = -.33, p < .01, but was unrelated to physiological responses to trauma reminder images (ps > .46) and had no direct effect on intrusion-related distress and overall PTSD symptoms, rs > -.12, ps > .29. However, configuration learning performance tended to be associated with reduced physiological responses to unrelated negative images, r = -.20, p = .07. Thus, while spatial configuration learning appears to be unrelated to affective responding to trauma reminders, our overall findings support the idea that the context-based memory system helps to reduce intrusions. PMID:23001992

  6. Predicting individuals' learning success from patterns of pre-learning MRI activity.

    PubMed

    Vo, Loan T K; Walther, Dirk B; Kramer, Arthur F; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Voss, Michelle W; Prakash, Ruchika S; Lee, Hyunkyu; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Simons, Daniel J; Sutton, Bradley P; Wang, Michelle Y

    2011-01-01

    Performance in most complex cognitive and psychomotor tasks improves with training, yet the extent of improvement varies among individuals. Is it possible to forecast the benefit that a person might reap from training? Several behavioral measures have been used to predict individual differences in task improvement, but their predictive power is limited. Here we show that individual differences in patterns of time-averaged T2*-weighted MRI images in the dorsal striatum recorded at the initial stage of training predict subsequent learning success in a complex video game with high accuracy. These predictions explained more than half of the variance in learning success among individuals, suggesting that individual differences in neuroanatomy or persistent physiology predict whether and to what extent people will benefit from training in a complex task. Surprisingly, predictions from white matter were highly accurate, while voxels in the gray matter of the dorsal striatum did not contain any information about future training success. Prediction accuracy was higher in the anterior than the posterior half of the dorsal striatum. The link between trainability and the time-averaged T2*-weighted signal in the dorsal striatum reaffirms the role of this part of the basal ganglia in learning and executive functions, such as task-switching and task coordination processes. The ability to predict who will benefit from training by using neuroimaging data collected in the early training phase may have far-reaching implications for the assessment of candidates for specific training programs as well as the study of populations that show deficiencies in learning new skills. PMID:21264257

  7. Prediction of individual clinical scores in patients with Parkinson's disease using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging.

    PubMed

    Hou, YanBing; Luo, ChunYan; Yang, Jing; Ou, RuWei; Song, Wei; Wei, QianQian; Cao, Bei; Zhao, Bi; Wu, Ying; Shang, Hui-Fang; Gong, QiYong

    2016-07-15

    Neuroimaging holds the promise that it may one day aid the clinical assessment. However, the vast majority of studies using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have reported average differences between Parkinson's disease (PD) patients and healthy controls, which do not permit inferences at the level of individuals. This study was to develop a model for the prediction of PD illness severity ratings from individual fMRI brain scan. The resting-state fMRI scans were obtained from 84 patients with PD and the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-III (UPDRS-III) scores were obtained before scanning. The RVR method was used to predict clinical scores (UPDRS-III) from fMRI scans. The application of RVR to whole-brain resting-state fMRI data allowed prediction of UPDRS-III scores with statistically significant accuracy (correlation=0.35, P-value=0.001; mean sum of squares=222.17, P-value=0.002). This prediction was informed strongly by negative weight areas including prefrontal lobe and medial occipital lobe, and positive weight areas including medial parietal lobe. It was suggested that fMRI scans contained sufficient information about neurobiological change in patients with PD to permit accurate prediction about illness severity, on an individual subject basis. Our results provided preliminary evidence, as proof-of-concept, to support that fMRI might be possible to be a clinically useful quantitative assessment aid in PD at individual level. This may enable clinicians to target those uncooperative patients and machines to replace human for a more efficient use of health care resources. PMID:27288771

  8. Clinical Neurochemistry of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Toward Predicting Individual Outcomes via Biomarkers of Brain Energy Metabolism.

    PubMed

    Tholance, Yannick; Barcelos, Gleicy; Dailler, Frederic; Perret-Liaudet, Armand; Renaud, Bernard

    2015-12-16

    The functional outcome of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage is difficult to predict at the individual level. The monitoring of brain energy metabolism has proven to be useful in improving the pathophysiological understanding of subarachnoid hemorrhage. Nonetheless, brain energy monitoring has not yet clearly been included in official guidelines for the management of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, likely because previous studies compared only biological data between two groups of patients (unfavorable vs favorable outcomes) and did not determine decision thresholds that could be useful in clinical practice. Therefore, this Viewpoint discusses recent findings suggesting that monitoring biomarkers of brain energy metabolism at the level of individuals can be used to predict the outcomes of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Indeed, by taking into account specific neurochemical patterns obtained by local or global monitoring of brain energy metabolism, it may become possible to predict routinely, and with sufficient sensitivity and specificity, the individual outcomes of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Moreover, combining both local and global monitoring improves the overall performance of individual outcome prediction. Such a combined neurochemical monitoring approach may become, after prospective clinical validation, an important component in the management of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients to adapt individualized therapeutic interventions. PMID:26595414

  9. A modified Hill muscle model that predicts muscle power output and efficiency during sinusoidal length changes.

    PubMed

    Lichtwark, G A; Wilson, A M

    2005-08-01

    The power output of a muscle and its efficiency vary widely under different activation conditions. This is partially due to the complex interaction between the contractile component of a muscle and the serial elasticity. We investigated the relationship between power output and efficiency of muscle by developing a model to predict the power output and efficiency of muscles under varying activation conditions during cyclical length changes. A comparison to experimental data from two different muscle types suggests that the model can effectively predict the time course of force and mechanical energetic output of muscle for a wide range of contraction conditions, particularly during activation of the muscle. With fixed activation properties, discrepancies in the work output between the model and the experimental results were greatest at the faster and slower cycle frequencies than that for which the model was optimised. Further optimisation of the activation properties across each individual cycle frequency examined demonstrated that a change in the relationship between the concentration of the activator (Ca2+) and the activation level could account for these discrepancies. The variation in activation properties with speed provides evidence for the phenomenon of shortening deactivation, whereby at higher speeds of contraction the muscle deactivates at a faster rate. The results of this study demonstrate that predictions about the mechanics and energetics of muscle are possible when sufficient information is known about the specific muscle. PMID:16043588

  10. Optimal predictions in everyday cognition: the wisdom of individuals or crowds?

    PubMed

    Mozer, Michael C; Pashler, Harold; Homaei, Hadjar

    2008-10-01

    Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over many individuals. On the conjecture that the accuracy of the group response is chiefly a consequence of aggregating across individuals, we constructed simple, heuristic approximations to the Bayesian model premised on the hypothesis that individuals have access merely to a sample of k instances drawn from the relevant distribution. The accuracy of the group response reported by Griffiths and Tenenbaum could be accounted for by supposing that individuals each utilize only two instances. Moreover, the variability of the group data is more consistent with this small-sample hypothesis than with the hypothesis that people utilize veridical or nearly veridical representations of the underlying prior distributions. Our analyses lead to a qualitatively different view of how individuals reason from past experience than the view espoused by Griffiths and Tenenbaum. PMID:21585446

  11. Changes in Predicted Muscle Coordination with Subject-Specific Muscle Parameters for Individuals after Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Knarr, Brian A.; Reisman, Darcy S.; Binder-Macleod, Stuart A.; Higginson, Jill S.

    2014-01-01

    Muscle weakness is commonly seen in individuals after stroke, characterized by lower forces during a maximal volitional contraction. Accurate quantification of muscle weakness is paramount when evaluating individual performance and response to after stroke rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of subject-specific muscle force and activation deficits on predicted muscle coordination when using musculoskeletal models for individuals after stroke. Maximum force generating ability and central activation ratio of the paretic plantar flexors, dorsiflexors, and quadriceps muscle groups were obtained using burst superimposition for four individuals after stroke with a range of walking speeds. Two models were created per subject: one with generic and one with subject-specific activation and maximum isometric force parameters. The inclusion of subject-specific muscle data resulted in changes in the model-predicted muscle forces and activations which agree with previously reported compensation patterns and match more closely the timing of electromyography for the plantar flexor and hamstring muscles. This was the first study to create musculoskeletal simulations of individuals after stroke with subject-specific muscle force and activation data. The results of this study suggest that subject-specific muscle force and activation data enhance the ability of musculoskeletal simulations to accurately predict muscle coordination in individuals after stroke. PMID:25093141

  12. Individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis: a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance

    PubMed Central

    Eksborg, Staffan

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Pharmacokinetic studies are important for optimizing of drug dosing, but requires proper validation of the used pharmacokinetic procedures. However, simple and reliable statistical methods suitable for evaluation of the predictive performance of pharmacokinetic analysis are essentially lacking. The aim of the present study was to construct and evaluate a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance of individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Methods Original data from previously published pharmacokinetic compartment analyses after intravenous, oral, and epidural administration, and digitized data, obtained from published scatter plots of observed vs predicted drug concentrations from population pharmacokinetic studies using the NPEM algorithm and NONMEM computer program and Bayesian forecasting procedures, were used for estimating the predictive performance according to the proposed graphical method and by the method of Sheiner and Beal. Results The graphical plot proposed in the present paper proved to be a useful tool for evaluation of predictive performance of both individual and population compartment pharmacokinetic analysis. Conclusion The proposed method is simple to use and gives valuable information concerning time- and concentration-dependent inaccuracies that might occur in individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Predictive performance can be quantified by the fraction of concentration ratios within arbitrarily specified ranges, e.g. within the range 0.8–1.2.

  13. Prediction Formulas for Individual Opioid Analgesic Requirements Based on Genetic Polymorphism Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Kaori; Nishizawa, Daisuke; Ichinomiya, Takashi; Ichinohe, Tatsuya; Hayashida, Masakazu; Fukuda, Ken-ichi; Ikeda, Kazutaka

    2015-01-01

    Background The analgesic efficacy of opioids is well known to vary widely among individuals, and various factors related to individual differences in opioid sensitivity have been identified. However, a prediction model to calculate appropriate opioid analgesic requirements has not yet been established. The present study sought to construct prediction formulas for individual opioid analgesic requirements based on genetic polymorphisms and clinical data from patients who underwent cosmetic orthognathic surgery and validate the utility of the prediction formulas in patients who underwent major open abdominal surgery. Methods To construct the prediction formulas, we performed multiple linear regression analyses using data from subjects who underwent cosmetic orthognathic surgery. The dependent variable was 24-h postoperative or perioperative fentanyl use, and the independent variables were age, gender, height, weight, pain perception latencies (PPL), and genotype data of five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). To examine the utility of the prediction formulas, we performed simple linear regression analyses using subjects who underwent major open abdominal surgery. Actual 24-h postoperative or perioperative analgesic use and the predicted values that were calculated using the multiple regression equations were incorporated as dependent and independent variables, respectively. Results Multiple linear regression analyses showed that the four SNPs, PPL, and weight were retained as independent predictors of 24-h postoperative fentanyl use (R2 = 0.145, P = 5.66 × 10-10) and the two SNPs and weight were retained as independent predictors of perioperative fentanyl use (R2 = 0.185, P = 1.99 × 10-15). Simple linear regression analyses showed that the predicted values were retained as an independent predictor of actual 24-h postoperative analgesic use (R2 = 0.033, P = 0.030) and perioperative analgesic use (R2 = 0.100, P = 1.09 × 10-4), respectively. Conclusions We

  14. Enhancing Arithmetic and Word-Problem Solving Skills Efficiently by Individualized Computer-Assisted Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoppek, Wolfgang; Tulis, Maria

    2010-01-01

    The fluency of basic arithmetical operations is a precondition for mathematical problem solving. However, the training of skills plays a minor role in contemporary mathematics instruction. The authors proposed individualization of practice as a means to improve its efficiency, so that the time spent with the training of skills is minimized. As a…

  15. Predicting lymph node output efficiency using systems biology

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Chang; Mattila, Joshua T.; Miller, Mark; Flynn, JoAnne L.; Linderman, Jennifer J.; Kirschner, D.

    2013-01-01

    Dendritic cells (DCs) capture pathogens and foreign antigen (Ag) in peripheral tissues and migrate to secondary lymphoid tissues, such as lymph nodes (LNs), where they present processed Ag as MHC-bound peptide (pMHC) to naïve T cells. Interactions between DCs and T cells result, over periods of hours, in activation, clonal expansion and differentiation of antigen-specific T cells, leading to primed cells that can now participate in immune responses. Two-photon microscopy (2PM) has been widely adopted to analyze lymphocyte dynamics and can serve as a powerful in vivo assay for cell trafficking and activation over short length and time scales. Linking biological phenomena between vastly different spatiotemporal scales can be achieved using a systems biology approach. We developed a 3D agent-based cellular model of a LN that allows for the simultaneous in silico simulation of T cell trafficking, activation and production of effector cells under different antigen (Ag) conditions. The model anatomy is based on in situ analysis of LN sections (from primates and mice) and cell dynamics based on quantitative measurements from 2PM imaging of mice. Our simulations make three important predictions. First, T cell encounters by DCs and T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire scanning are more efficient in a 3D model compared with 2D, suggesting that a 3D model is needed to analyze LN function. Second, LNs are able to produce primed CD4+T cells at the same efficiency over broad ranges of cognate frequencies (from 10−5 to 10−2). Third, reducing the time that naïve T cells are required to bind DCs before becoming activated will increase the rate at which effector cells are produced. This 3D model provides a robust platform to study how T cell trafficking and activation dynamics relate to the efficiency of T cell priming and clonal expansion. We envision that this systems biology approach will provide novel insights for guiding vaccine development and understanding immune responses

  16. Content and activity of human liver microsomal protein and prediction of individual hepatic clearance in vivo

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Haifeng; Gao, Na; Tian, Xin; Liu, Tingting; Fang, Yan; Zhou, Jun; Wen, Qiang; Xu, Binbin; Qi, Bing; Gao, Jie; Li, Hongmeng; Jia, Linjing; Qiao, Hailing

    2015-01-01

    The lack of information concerning individual variation in content and activity of human liver microsomal protein is one of the most important obstacles for designing personalized medicines. We demonstrated that the mean value of microsomal protein per gram of liver (MPPGL) was 39.46 mg/g in 128 human livers and up to 19-fold individual variations existed. Meanwhile, the metabolic activities of 10 cytochrome P450 (CYPs) were detected in microsomes and liver tissues, respectively, which showed huge individual variations (200-fold). Compared with microsomes, the activities of liver tissues were much suitable to express the individual variations of CYP activities. Furthermore, individual variations in the in vivo clearance of tolbutamide were successfully predicted with the individual parameter values. In conclusion, we offer the values for MPPGL contents in normal liver tissues and build a new method to assess the in vitro CYP activities. In addition, large individual variations exist in predicted hepatic clearance of tolbutamide. These findings provide important physiological parameters for physiologically-based pharmacokinetics models and thus, establish a solid foundation for future development of personalized medicines. PMID:26635233

  17. Predicting Teen Motherhood and Teen Fatherhood: Individual Characteristics and Peer Affiliations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xie, Hongling; Cairns, Beverley D.; Cairns, Robert B.

    2001-01-01

    Examined 475 adolescents from Grade 7 through early adulthood to identify antecedents and pathways of teen parenthood. Found that teen fatherhood and motherhood were predicted by individual and peer configurations such as a combination of high aggression, low academic competence, low popularity, and low family SES. Peer characteristics, race, and…

  18. Predicting Achievement in Mathematics in Adolescent Students: The Role of Individual and Social Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levpuscek, Melita Puklek; Zupancic, Maja; Socan, Gregor

    2013-01-01

    The study examined individual factors and social factors that influence adolescent students' achievement in mathematics. The predictive model suggested direct positive effects of student intelligence, self-rated openness and parental education on achievement in mathematics, whereas direct effects of extraversion on measures of achievement…

  19. Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

    PubMed Central

    Stillman, Richard A.; Railsback, Steven F.; Giske, Jarl; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker

    2014-01-01

    Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions—fitness maximization by individual organisms—is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research. PMID:26955076

  20. Individual differences and the neural representations of reward expectation and reward prediction error

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    Reward expectation and reward prediction errors are thought to be critical for dynamic adjustments in decision-making and reward-seeking behavior, but little is known about their representation in the brain during uncertainty and risk-taking. Furthermore, little is known about what role individual differences might play in such reinforcement processes. In this study, it is shown behavioral and neural responses during a decision-making task can be characterized by a computational reinforcement learning model and that individual differences in learning parameters in the model are critical for elucidating these processes. In the fMRI experiment, subjects chose between high- and low-risk rewards. A computational reinforcement learning model computed expected values and prediction errors that each subject might experience on each trial. These outputs predicted subjects’ trial-to-trial choice strategies and neural activity in several limbic and prefrontal regions during the task. Individual differences in estimated reinforcement learning parameters proved critical for characterizing these processes, because models that incorporated individual learning parameters explained significantly more variance in the fMRI data than did a model using fixed learning parameters. These findings suggest that the brain engages a reinforcement learning process during risk-taking and that individual differences play a crucial role in modeling this process. PMID:17710118

  1. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  2. Left anterior cingulate activity predicts intra-individual reaction time variability in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Beth P; Pinar, Ari; Fornito, Alex; Nandam, L Sanjay; Hester, Robert; Bellgrove, Mark A

    2015-06-01

    Within-subject, or intra-individual, variability in reaction time (RT) is increasingly recognised as an important indicator of the efficiency of attentional control, yet there have been few investigations of the neural correlates of trial-to-trial RT variability in healthy adults. We sought to determine the neural correlates of intra-individual RT variability during a go/no-go response inhibition task in 27 healthy, male participants. We found that reduced trial-to-trial RT variability (i.e. greater response stability) was significantly associated with greater activation in the left pregenual anterior cingulate. These results support the role of the left anterior cingulate in the dynamic control of attention and efficient response selection. Greater understanding of intra-individual RT variability and top-down attentional control in healthy adults may help to inform disorders that impact executive/attentional control, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and schizophrenia. PMID:25791710

  3. Personality predicts individual responsiveness to the risks of starvation and predation.

    PubMed

    Quinn, J L; Cole, E F; Bates, J; Payne, R W; Cresswell, W

    2012-05-22

    Theory suggests that individual personality is tightly linked to individual life histories and to environmental variation. The reactive-proactive axis, for example, is thought to reflect whether individuals prioritize productivity or survival, mutually exclusive options that can be caused by conflicts between foraging and anti-predation behaviour. Evidence for this trade-off hypothesis, however, is limited. Here, we tested experimentally whether exploration behaviour (EB), an assay of proactivity, could explain how great tits (Parus major) respond to changes in starvation and predation risk. Individuals were presented with two feeders, holding good or poor quality food, which interchanged between safe and dangerous positions 10 m apart, across two 24 h treatments. Starvation risk was assumed to be highest in the morning and lowest in the afternoon. The proportion of time spent feeding on good quality food (PTG) rather than poor quality food was repeatable within treatments, but individuals varied in how PTG changed with respect to predation- and starvation-risk across treatments. This individual plasticity variation in foraging behaviour was linked to EB, as predicted by the reactive-proactive axis, but only among individuals in dominant social classes. Our results support the trade-off hypothesis at the level of individuals in a wild population, and suggest that fine-scale temporal and spatial variation may play important roles in the evolution of personality. PMID:22179807

  4. Cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort predict shifting efficiency: Implications for attentional control theory.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Elizabeth J; Edwards, Mark S; Lyvers, Michael

    2015-06-01

    Attentional control theory (ACT) predicts that trait anxiety and situational stress interact to impair performance on tasks that involve attentional shifting. The theory suggests that anxious individuals recruit additional effort to prevent shortfalls in performance effectiveness (accuracy), with deficits becoming evident in processing efficiency (the relationship between accuracy and time taken to perform the task). These assumptions, however, have not been systematically tested. The relationship between cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort in a shifting task (Wisconsin Card Sorting Task) was investigated in 90 participants. Cognitive trait anxiety was operationalized using questionnaire scores, situational stress was manipulated through ego threat instructions, and mental effort was measured using a visual analogue scale. Dependent variables were performance effectiveness (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors) and processing efficiency (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors divided by response time on perseverative error trials). The predictors were not associated with performance effectiveness; however, we observed a significant 3-way interaction on processing efficiency. At higher mental effort (+1 SD), higher cognitive trait anxiety was associated with poorer efficiency independently of situational stress, whereas at lower effort (-1 SD), this relationship was highly significant and most pronounced for those in the high-stress condition. These results are important because they provide the first systematic test of the relationship between trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort on shifting performance. The data are also consistent with the notion that effort moderates the relationship between anxiety and shifting efficiency, but not effectiveness. PMID:25642722

  5. Multi-prediction particle filter for efficient parallelized implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Chun-Yuan; Chao, Chih-Hao; Chao, Min-An; Wu, An-Yeu Andy

    2011-12-01

    Particle filter (PF) is an emerging signal processing methodology, which can effectively deal with nonlinear and non-Gaussian signals by a sample-based approximation of the state probability density function. The particle generation of the PF is a data-independent procedure and can be implemented in parallel. However, the resampling procedure in the PF is a sequential task in natural and difficult to be parallelized. Based on the Amdahl's law, the sequential portion of a task limits the maximum speed-up of the parallelized implementation. Moreover, large particle number is usually required to obtain an accurate estimation, and the complexity of the resampling procedure is highly related to the number of particles. In this article, we propose a multi-prediction (MP) framework with two selection approaches. The proposed MP framework can reduce the required particle number for target estimation accuracy, and the sequential operation of the resampling can be reduced. Besides, the overhead of the MP framework can be easily compensated by parallel implementation. The proposed MP-PF alleviates the global sequential operation by increasing the local parallel computation. In addition, the MP-PF is very suitable for multi-core graphics processing unit (GPU) platform, which is a popular parallel processing architecture. We give prototypical implementations of the MP-PFs on multi-core GPU platform. For the classic bearing-only tracking experiments, the proposed MP-PF can be 25.1 and 15.3 times faster than the sequential importance resampling-PF with 10,000 and 20,000 particles, respectively. Hence, the proposed MP-PF can enhance the efficiency of the parallelization.

  6. Individual preparedness and mitigation actions for a predicted earthquake in Istanbul.

    PubMed

    Tekeli-Yeşil, Sıdıka; Dedeoğlu, Necati; Tanner, Marcel; Braun-Fahrlaender, Charlotte; Obrist, Birgit

    2010-10-01

    This study investigated the process of taking action to mitigate damage and prepare for an earthquake at the individual level. Its specific aim was to identify the factors that promote or inhibit individuals in this process. The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey--where an earthquake is expected soon--in May and June 2006 using qualitative methods. Within our conceptual framework, three different patterns emerged among the study subjects. Outcome expectancy, helplessness, a low socioeconomic level, a culture of negligence, a lack of trust, onset time/poor predictability, and normalisation bias inhibit individuals in this process, while location, direct personal experience, a higher education level, and social interaction promote them. Drawing on these findings, the paper details key points for better disaster communication, including whom to mobilise to reach target populations, such as individuals with direct earthquake experience and women. PMID:20561339

  7. Driving Green: Toward the Prediction and Influence of Efficient Driving Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newsome, William D.

    Sub-optimal efficiency in activities involving the consumption of fossil fuels, such as driving, contribute to a miscellany of negative environmental, political, economic and social externalities. Demonstrations of the effectiveness of feedback interventions can be found in countless organizational settings, as can demonstrations of individual differences in sensitivity to feedback interventions. Mechanisms providing feedback to drivers about fuel economy are becoming standard equipment in most new vehicles, but vary considerably in their constitution. A keystone of Radical Behaviorism is the acknowledgement that verbal behavior appears to play a role in mediating apparent susceptibility to influence by contingencies of varying delay. In the current study, samples of verbal behavior (rules) were collected in the context of a feedback intervention to improve driving efficiency. In an analysis of differences in individual responsiveness to the feedback intervention, the rate of novel rules per week generated by drivers is revealed to account for a substantial proportion of the variability in relative efficiency gains across participants. The predictive utility of conceptual tools, such as the basic distinction among contingency-shaped and rule governed behavior, the elaboration of direct-acting and indirect-acting contingencies, and the psychological flexibility model, is bolstered by these findings.

  8. PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL WELL-BEING THROUGH THE LANGUAGE OF SOCIAL MEDIA.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, H Andrew; Sap, Maarten; Kern, Margaret L; Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Kapelner, Adam; Agrawal, Megha; Blanco, Eduardo; Dziurzynski, Lukasz; Park, Gregory; Stillwell, David; Kosinski, Michal; Seligman, Martin E P; Ungar, Lyle H

    2016-01-01

    We present the task of predicting individual well-being, as measured by a life satisfaction scale, through the language people use on social media. Well-being, which encompasses much more than emotion and mood, is linked with good mental and physical health. The ability to quickly and accurately assess it can supplement multi-million dollar national surveys as well as promote whole body health. Through crowd-sourced ratings of tweets and Facebook status updates, we create message-level predictive models for multiple components of well-being. However, well-being is ultimately attributed to people, so we perform an additional evaluation at the user-level, finding that a multi-level cascaded model, using both message-level predictions and userlevel features, performs best and outperforms popular lexicon-based happiness models. Finally, we suggest that analyses of language go beyond prediction by identifying the language that characterizes well-being. PMID:26776214

  9. Value signals in the prefrontal cortex predict individual preferences across reward categories.

    PubMed

    Gross, Jörg; Woelbert, Eva; Zimmermann, Jan; Okamoto-Barth, Sanae; Riedl, Arno; Goebel, Rainer

    2014-05-28

    Humans can choose between fundamentally different options, such as watching a movie or going out for dinner. According to the utility concept, put forward by utilitarian philosophers and widely used in economics, this may be accomplished by mapping the value of different options onto a common scale, independent of specific option characteristics (Fehr and Rangel, 2011; Levy and Glimcher, 2012). If this is the case, value-related activity patterns in the brain should allow predictions of individual preferences across fundamentally different reward categories. We analyze fMRI data of the prefrontal cortex while subjects imagine the pleasure they would derive from items belonging to two distinct reward categories: engaging activities (like going out for drinks, daydreaming, or doing sports) and snack foods. Support vector machines trained on brain patterns related to one category reliably predict individual preferences of the other category and vice versa. Further, we predict preferences across participants. These findings demonstrate that prefrontal cortex value signals follow a common scale representation of value that is even comparable across individuals and could, in principle, be used to predict choice. PMID:24872562

  10. Can the Foot Posture Index or their individual criteria predict dynamic plantar pressures?

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Rodríguez, Raquel; Martínez-Nova, Alfonso; Escamilla-Martínez, Elena; Pedrera-Zamorano, Juan Diego

    2012-07-01

    The Foot Posture Index (FPI) quantifies foot posture through the evaluation of six individual criteria. The objective of the present study was then to establish the plantar pressure differences between types of feet, and to study the capacity of the whole FPI value and the six individual criteria to predict the pattern of plantar pressures. In a sample of 400 healthy subjects (201 men and 199 women), the FPI was evaluated and plantar pressures were measured in 10 zones using the Footscan(®) platform. Five plantar pressures measurements were made for each foot, using for the study the mean of these measurements for each subject's left foot. The hallux and the lesser toes had lower pressure indices in highly supinated feet, with the values increasing progressively toward the highly pronated feet (p<0.001 and p=0.019 respectively). The fifth metatarsal head (MTH) values were greater in highly supinated feet, and decreased in the highly pronated feet (p<0.001). The FPI value predicts low variability of plantar pressures, mainly in the heel and midfoot, while the individual criteria predict higher variability in the forefoot. The talonavicular prominence and the calcaneal frontal plane position was the most influential criterion, explaining 8.5% of the hallux pressure and 11.1% of the fifth MTH pressure. Neither talar head palpation nor the supra and infra malleolar curvature predicted any of the plantar pressures variables. The FPI can distinguish three groups of feet--pronated, neutral, and supinated. Its individual criteria predict moderate or low plantar pressures variability, with the talonavicular prominence being the most influential criterion. PMID:22727718

  11. Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. Methods A population-based case–control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20–79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. Results For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. Conclusions We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand. PMID:24884419

  12. Cortical Response Similarities Predict which Audiovisual Clips Individuals Viewed, but Are Unrelated to Clip Preference

    PubMed Central

    Bridwell, David A.; Roth, Cullen; Gupta, Cota Navin; Calhoun, Vince D.

    2015-01-01

    Cortical responses to complex natural stimuli can be isolated by examining the relationship between neural measures obtained while multiple individuals view the same stimuli. These inter-subject correlation’s (ISC’s) emerge from similarities in individual’s cortical response to the shared audiovisual inputs, which may be related to their emergent cognitive and perceptual experience. Within the present study, our goal is to examine the utility of using ISC’s for predicting which audiovisual clips individuals viewed, and to examine the relationship between neural responses to natural stimuli and subjective reports. The ability to predict which clips individuals viewed depends on the relationship of the EEG response across subjects and the nature in which this information is aggregated. We conceived of three approaches for aggregating responses, i.e. three assignment algorithms, which we evaluated in Experiment 1A. The aggregate correlations algorithm generated the highest assignment accuracy (70.83% chance = 33.33%) and was selected as the assignment algorithm for the larger sample of individuals and clips within Experiment 1B. The overall assignment accuracy was 33.46% within Experiment 1B (chance = 06.25%), with accuracies ranging from 52.9% (Silver Linings Playbook) to 11.75% (Seinfeld) within individual clips. ISC’s were significantly greater than zero for 15 out of 16 clips, and fluctuations within the delta frequency band (i.e. 0-4 Hz) primarily contributed to response similarities across subjects. Interestingly, there was insufficient evidence to indicate that individuals with greater similarities in clip preference demonstrate greater similarities in cortical responses, suggesting a lack of association between ISC and clip preference. Overall these results demonstrate the utility of using ISC’s for prediction, and further characterize the relationship between ISC magnitudes and subjective reports. PMID:26030422

  13. Healthy individuals maintain adaptive stimulus evaluation under predictable and unpredictable threat.

    PubMed

    Klinkenberg, Isabelle A G; Rehbein, Maimu A; Steinberg, Christian; Klahn, Anna Luisa; Zwanzger, Peter; Zwitserlood, Pienie; Junghöfer, Markus

    2016-08-01

    The anxiety inducing paradigms such as the threat-of-shock paradigm have provided ample data on the emotional processing of predictable and unpredictable threat, but little is known about the processing of aversive, threat-irrelevant stimuli in these paradigms. We investigated how the predictability of threat influences the neural visual processing of threat-irrelevant fearful and neutral faces. Thirty-two healthy individuals participated in an NPU-threat test, consisting of a safe or neutral condition (N) and a predictable (P) as well as an unpredictable (U) threat condition, using audio-visual threat stimuli. In all NPU-conditions, we registered participants' brain responses to threat-irrelevant faces via magnetoencephalography. The data showed that increasing unpredictability of threat evoked increasing emotion regulation during face processing predominantly in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex regions during an early to mid-latency time interval. Importantly, we obtained only main effects but no significant interaction of facial expression and conditions of different threat predictability, neither in behavioral nor in neural data. Healthy individuals with average trait anxiety are thus able to maintain adaptive stimulus evaluation processes under predictable and unpredictable threat conditions. PMID:27208859

  14. Ecological rationality or nested sets? Individual differences in cognitive processing predict Bayesian reasoning.

    PubMed

    Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Hagmayer, York

    2014-02-01

    The presentation of a Bayesian inference problem in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities has been shown to enhance performance. The effect of individual differences in cognitive processing on Bayesian reasoning has rarely been studied, despite enabling us to test process-oriented variants of the two main accounts of the facilitative effect of natural frequencies: The ecological rationality account (ERA), which postulates an evolutionarily shaped ease of natural frequency automatic processing, and the nested sets account (NSA), which posits analytical processing of nested sets. In two experiments, we found that cognitive reflection abilities predicted normative performance equally well in tasks featuring whole and arbitrarily parsed objects (Experiment 1) and that cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions (analytical vs. intuitive) predicted performance with single-event probabilities, as well as natural frequencies (Experiment 2). Since these individual differences indicate that analytical processing improves Bayesian reasoning, our findings provide stronger support for the NSA than for the ERA. PMID:23794254

  15. Using individual differences to predict job performance: correcting for direct and indirect restriction of range.

    PubMed

    Sjöberg, Sofia; Sjöberg, Anders; Näswall, Katharina; Sverke, Magnus

    2012-08-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between individual differences, indicated by personality (FFM) and general mental ability (GMA), and job performance applying two different methods of correction for range restriction. The results, derived by analyzing meta-analytic correlations, show that the more accurate method of correcting for indirect range restriction increased the operational validity of individual differences in predicting job performance and that this increase primarily was due to general mental ability being a stronger predictor than any of the personality traits. The estimates for single traits can be applied in practice to maximize prediction of job performance. Further, differences in the relative importance of general mental ability in relation to overall personality assessment methods was substantive and the estimates provided enables practitioners to perform a correct utility analysis of their overall selection procedure. PMID:22612634

  16. Predicting the clinical effect of a short acting bronchodilator in individual patients using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    de Matas, Marcel; Shao, Qun; Biddiscombe, Martyn F; Meah, Sally; Chrystyn, Henry; Usmani, Omar S

    2010-12-23

    Artificial neural networks were used in this study to model the relationships between in vitro data, subject characteristics and in vivo outcomes from N=18 mild-moderate asthmatics receiving monodisperse salbutamol sulphate aerosols of 1.5, 3 and 6 μm mass median aerodynamic diameter in a cumulative dosing schedule of 10, 20, 40 and 100 μg. Input variables to the model were aerodynamic particle size (APS), body surface area (BSA), age, pre-treatment forced expiratory volume in one-second (FEV(1)), forced vital capacity, cumulative emitted drug dose and bronchodilator reversibility to a standard salbutamol sulphate 200 μg dose MDI (REV(%)). These factors were used by the model to predict the bronchodilator response at 10 (T10) and 20 (T20) min after receiving each of the 4 doses for each of the 3 different particle sizes. Predictability was assessed using data from selected patients in this study, which were set aside and not used in model generation. Models reliably predicted ΔFEV(1)(%) in individual subjects with non-linear determinants (R(2)) of ≥ 0.8. The average error between predicted and observed ΔFEV(1)(%) for individual subjects was <4% across the cumulative dosing regimen. Increases in APS and drug dose gave improved ΔFEV(1)(%). Models also showed trends towards improved responses in younger patients and those having greater REV(%), whilst BSA was also shown to influence clinical effect. These data show that APS can be used to discriminate predictably between aerosols giving different bronchodilator responses across a cumulative dosing schedule, whilst patient characteristics can be used to reliably estimate clinical response in individual subjects. PMID:20932900

  17. Predicting variations of perceptual performance across individuals from neural activity using pattern classifiers.

    PubMed

    Das, Koel; Giesbrecht, Barry; Eckstein, Miguel P

    2010-07-15

    Within the past decade computational approaches adopted from the field of machine learning have provided neuroscientists with powerful new tools for analyzing neural data. For instance, previous studies have applied pattern classification algorithms to electroencephalography data to predict the category of presented visual stimuli, human observer decision choices and task difficulty. Here, we quantitatively compare the ability of pattern classifiers and three ERP metrics (peak amplitude, mean amplitude, and onset latency of the face-selective N170) to predict variations across individuals' behavioral performance in a difficult perceptual task identifying images of faces and cars embedded in noise. We investigate three different pattern classifiers (Classwise Principal Component Analysis, CPCA; Linear Discriminant Analysis, LDA; and Support Vector Machine, SVM), five training methods differing in the selection of training data sets and three analyses procedures for the ERP measures. We show that all three pattern classifier algorithms surpass traditional ERP measurements in their ability to predict individual differences in performance. Although the differences across pattern classifiers were not large, the CPCA method with training data sets restricted to EEG activity for trials in which observers expressed high confidence about their decisions performed the highest at predicting perceptual performance of observers. We also show that the neural activity predicting the performance across individuals was distributed through time starting at 120ms, and unlike the face-selective ERP response, sustained for more than 400ms after stimulus presentation, indicating that both early and late components contain information correlated with observers' behavioral performance. Together, our results further demonstrate the potential of pattern classifiers compared to more traditional ERP techniques as an analysis tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of the human brain and

  18. Quantitative Prediction of Individual Psychopathology in Trauma Survivors Using Resting-State fMRI

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Qiyong; Li, Lingjiang; Du, Mingying; Pettersson-Yeo, William; Crossley, Nicolas; Yang, Xun; Li, Jing; Huang, Xiaoqi; Mechelli, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Neuroimaging techniques hold the promise that they may one day aid the clinical assessment of individual psychiatric patients. However, the vast majority of studies published so far have been based on average differences between groups. This study employed a multivariate approach to examine the potential of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for making accurate predictions about psychopathology in survivors of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake at an individual level. Resting-state functional MRI data was acquired for 121 survivors of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake each of whom was assessed for symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using the 17-item PTSD Checklist (PCL). Using a multivariate analytical method known as relevance vector regression (RVR), we examined the relationship between resting-state functional MRI data and symptom scores. We found that the use of RVR allowed quantitative prediction of clinical scores with statistically significant accuracy (correlation=0.32, P=0.006; mean squared error=176.88, P=0.001). Accurate prediction was based on functional activation in a number of prefrontal, parietal, and occipital regions. This is the first evidence that neuroimaging techniques may inform the clinical assessment of trauma-exposed individuals by providing an accurate and objective quantitative estimation of psychopathology. Furthermore, the significant contribution of parietal and occipital regions to such estimation challenges the traditional view of PTSD as a disorder specific to the fronto-limbic network. PMID:24064470

  19. Group decisions and individual differences: route fidelity predicts flight leadership in homing pigeons (Columba livia)

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, Robin; Mann, Richard; Guilford, Tim; Biro, Dora

    2011-01-01

    How social-living animals make collective decisions is currently the subject of intense scientific interest, with increasing focus on the role of individual variation within the group. Previously, we demonstrated that during paired flight in homing pigeons, a fully transitive leadership hierarchy emerges as birds are forced to choose between their own and their partner's habitual routes. This stable hierarchy suggests a role for individual differences mediating leadership decisions within homing pigeon pairs. What these differences are, however, has remained elusive. Using novel quantitative techniques to analyse habitual route structure, we show here that leadership can be predicted from prior route-following fidelity. Birds that are more faithful to their own route when homing alone are more likely to emerge as leaders when homing socially. We discuss how this fidelity may relate to the leadership phenomenon, and propose that leadership may emerge from the interplay between individual route confidence and the dynamics of paired flight. PMID:20810431

  20. Efficiency test of earthquake prediction around Thessaloniki from electrotelluric precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, K.; Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.

    1985-11-01

    Since the completion of the network in January 1983, the electric field of the earth has been continuously monitored at four sites near Thessaloniki, the capital of northern Greece. From the present study and from previous investigations by similar measurements in Greece, it is evident that transient changes of the electrotelluric field occur prior to earthquakes. The analysis of these electric forerunners leads in many cases to a successful prediction of the epicentral area, the magnitude and the time of the impending event. Predictions prior to regional earthquakes are issued and documented with telegrams. From November 1983 until the end of May 1984 twelve earthquakes ( M L > 3.5 ) occurred in the vicinity of Thessaloniki. Ten of these were predicted and warnings given by telegram, whereas two smaller seismic events were missed. Two additional predictions were unsuccessful. Independent of their magnitudes, predicted events took place within a time window of 6 hrs to 6 days after the observations of the electrotelluric anomalies. The accuracy of the predicted epicenters in eight cases is better than 100 km, which corresponds roughly to the mean distance between the electric stations. Magnitude estimates deviate by less than 0.5 magnitude units from the seismically observed ones. Considering the two largest earthquakes, it is shown that the probability of making each of these predictions by chance is of the order of 10 -2.

  1. Individual Differences in Anterior Cingulate Activation Associated with Attentional Bias Predict Cocaine Use After Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Marhe, Reshmi; Luijten, Maartje; van de Wetering, Ben J M; Smits, Marion; Franken, Ingmar H A

    2013-01-01

    Drug-dependent patients often relapse into drug use after treatment. Behavioral studies show that enhanced attentional bias to drug cues is a precursor of relapse. The present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study examined whether brain regions involved in attentional bias are predictive of cocaine use after treatment. Attentional bias-related brain activity was measured—with a cocaine Stroop task—in cocaine-dependent patients during their first week in detoxification treatment and was used to predict cocaine use at 3-month follow-up. The predictive value of attentional bias-related brain activity in a priori defined regions of interest, in addition to other measures such as self-reports of substance severity, craving, and behavioral attentional bias were examined. The results show that craving in the week before treatment and individual variability in attentional bias-related activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) were significant predictors of days of cocaine use at 3-month follow-up and accounted for 45% in explained variance. Brain activity in the dACC uniquely contributed 22% of explained variance to the prediction model. These findings suggest that hyperactive attentional bias-related brain activity in the dACC might be a biomarker of relapse vulnerability as early as in the first week of detoxification treatment. Ultimately, this may help to develop individually tailored treatment interventions to reduce relapse risk. PMID:23303067

  2. Prediction of individual response to antidepressants and antipsychotics: an integrated concept

    PubMed Central

    Preskorn, Sheldon H.

    2014-01-01

    In both clinical trials and daily practice, there can be substantial inter- and even intraindividual variability in response—whether beneficial or adverse—to antidepressants and antipsychotic medications. So far, no tools have become available to predict the outcome of these treatments in specific patients. This is because the causes of such variability are often not known, and when they are, there is no way of predicting the effects of their various potential combinations in an individual. Given this background, this paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding known factors and their combinations so that eventually clinicians can better predict what medication(s) to select and at what dose they can optimize the outcome for a given individual. This framework is flexible enough to be readily adaptable as new information becomes available. The causes of variation in patient response are grouped into four categories: (i) genetics; (ii) age; (iii) disease; and (iv) environment (internal). Four cases of increasing complexity are used to illustrate the applicability of this framework in a clinically relevant way In addition, this paper reviews tools that the clinician can use to assess for and quantify such inter- and intraindividual variability. With the information gained, treatment can be adjusted to compensate for such variability, in order to optimize outcome. Finally, the limitations of existing antidepressant and antipsychotic therapy and the way they reduce current ability to predict response is discussed. PMID:25733958

  3. Predicting sexual infidelity in a population-based sample of married individuals.

    PubMed

    Whisman, Mark A; Gordon, Kristina Coop; Chatav, Yael

    2007-06-01

    Predictors of 12-month prevalence of sexual infidelity were examined in a population-based sample of married individuals (N = 2,291). Predictor variables were organized in terms of involved-partner (e.g., personality, religiosity), marital (e.g., marital dissatisfaction, partner affair), and extradyadic (e.g., parenting) variables. Annual prevalence of infidelity was 2.3%. Controlling for marital dissatisfaction and demographic variables, infidelity was predicted by greater neuroticism and lower religiosity; wives' pregnancy also increased the risk of infidelity for husbands. In comparison, self-esteem and partners' suspected affair were predictive of infidelity when controlling for demographic variables but were not uniquely predictive of infidelity when also controlling for marital dissatisfaction. Religiosity and wives' pregnancy moderated the association between marital dissatisfaction and infidelity. PMID:17605555

  4. Prediction of the period of psychotic episode in individual schizophrenics by simulation-data construction approach.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chun-Jung; Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Chiu, Hsien-Jane; Lan, Tsuo-Hung; Hu, Tsung-Ming; Loh, El-Wui

    2010-10-01

    Although schizophrenia can be treated, most patients still experience inevitable psychotic episodes from time to time. Precautious actions can be taken if the next onset can be predicted. However, sufficient information is always lacking in the clinical scenario. A possible solution is to use the virtual data generated from limited of original data. Data construction method (DCM) has been shown to generate the virtual felt earthquake data effectively and used in the prediction of further events. Here we investigated the performance of DCM in deriving the membership functions and discrete-event simulations (DES) in predicting the period embracing the initiation and termination time-points of the next psychotic episode of 35 individual schizophrenic patients. The results showed that 21 subjects had a success of simulations (RSS) ≥70%. Further analysis demonstrated that the co-morbidity of coronary heart diseases (CHD), risks of CHD, and the frequency of previous psychotic episodes increased the RSS. PMID:20703629

  5. Gut Microbiota Signatures Predict Host and Microbiota Responses to Dietary Interventions in Obese Individuals

    PubMed Central

    Korpela, Katri; Flint, Harry J.; Johnstone, Alexandra M.; Lappi, Jenni; Poutanen, Kaisa; Dewulf, Evelyne; Delzenne, Nathalie; de Vos, Willem M.; Salonen, Anne

    2014-01-01

    Background Interactions between the diet and intestinal microbiota play a role in health and disease, including obesity and related metabolic complications. There is great interest to use dietary means to manipulate the microbiota to promote health. Currently, the impact of dietary change on the microbiota and the host metabolism is poorly predictable and highly individual. We propose that the responsiveness of the gut microbiota may depend on its composition, and associate with metabolic changes in the host. Methodology Our study involved three independent cohorts of obese adults (n = 78) from Belgium, Finland, and Britain, participating in different dietary interventions aiming to improve metabolic health. We used a phylogenetic microarray for comprehensive fecal microbiota analysis at baseline and after the intervention. Blood cholesterol, insulin and inflammation markers were analyzed as indicators of host response. The data were divided into four training set – test set pairs; each intervention acted both as a part of a training set and as an independent test set. We used linear models to predict the responsiveness of the microbiota and the host, and logistic regression to predict responder vs. non-responder status, or increase vs. decrease of the health parameters. Principal Findings Our models, based on the abundance of several, mainly Firmicute species at baseline, predicted the responsiveness of the microbiota (AUC  =  0.77–1; predicted vs. observed correlation  =  0.67–0.88). Many of the predictive taxa showed a non-linear relationship with the responsiveness. The microbiota response associated with the change in serum cholesterol levels with an AUC of 0.96, highlighting the involvement of the intestinal microbiota in metabolic health. Conclusion This proof-of-principle study introduces the first potential microbial biomarkers for dietary responsiveness in obese individuals with impaired metabolic health, and reveals the potential of

  6. Individual prediction of treatment outcome in patients with temporomandibular disorders. A quality improvement model.

    PubMed

    Sundqvist, Bertil

    2007-01-01

    The general aim of this thesis was to create and evaluate a quality improvement model for prediction of treatment outcome in patients diagnosed with Temporomandibular Disorders (TMD) of either Muscle or Mainly TMJ (Temporomandibular Joint) origin, treated with interocclusal appliances and/or occlusal adjustment. The model was assumed to generate negative predictors of treatment outcome through evaluating all patients predicted Good reaching an objective treatment goal but not having an improvement of 50% or more. The model was created and evaluated by one TMD specialist. The questions were: (I) Was it possible for the TMD specialist to predict treatment outcome individually in patients diagnosed with TMD and, from the results, create a quality improvement model? (II) Was it possible for eight TMD-trained general dental practitioners, under the supervision of the TMD specialist, to treat TMD patients with similar results to the TMD specialist if the TMD specialist had examined, treatment planned, and individually predicted the treatment outcome? (III) Was it possible for the TMD specialist to improve the possibility to predict individual treatment outcome overtime? (IV) Was it possible for one TMD-trained general dental practitioner to copy the clinical part of the model and achieve the same results as the TMD specialist, in patients selected by the TMD specialist? Out of 5165 patients subjected to a functional examination of the masticatory system, 3602 were diagnosed with TMD and subgrouped as either Muscle or Mainly TMJ symptoms. The patients were predicted to have a Good, Dubious, or Poor possibility to have an improvement of 50% or more after treatment. Patients predicted Poor were not offered any treatment. A correct prediction of actual treatment outcome Good was defined as an improvement of 50% or more for muscle and/or TMJ symptoms. A total of 2625 patients began treatment at the specialist clinic for TMD and 2128 completed the full course of treatment. The

  7. Predicting the Efficiency of Photoswitches Using Force Analysis.

    PubMed

    Stauch, Tim; Dreuw, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Photoswitches convert light into mechanical energy by exerting forces on their environment during photoisomerization. However, the mechanical efficiency of this conversion is limited because a plethora of internal modes of the photoswitch do not contribute to the desired switching function but are also changed during the photoisomerization. Here we present a computational approach to quantify the efficiency of a photoswitch during the initial motion on the excited-state potential energy surface. We demonstrate the gist of our method by looking at the excited-state relaxation of carbon monoxide. Subsequently, the photoswitching efficiency of p-coumaric acid is analyzed as one representative example of the approach. PMID:27003338

  8. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    PubMed

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria >30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9±18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R>1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R>3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R>5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions. PMID:26951378

  9. Internalizing and externalizing traits predict changes in sleep efficiency in emerging adulthood: an actigraphy study

    PubMed Central

    Yaugher, Ashley C.; Alexander, Gerianne M.

    2015-01-01

    Research on psychopathology and experimental studies of sleep restriction support a relationship between sleep disruption and both internalizing and externalizing disorders. The objective of the current study was to extend this research by examining sleep, impulsivity, antisocial personality traits, and internalizing traits in a university sample. Three hundred and eighty six individuals (161 males) between the ages of 18 and 27 years (M = 18.59, SD = 0.98) wore actigraphs for 7 days and completed established measures of disorder-linked personality traits and sleep quality (i.e., Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). As expected, sleep measures and questionnaire scores fell within the normal range of values and sex differences in sleep and personality were consistent with previous research results. Similar to findings in predominantly male forensic psychiatric settings, higher levels of impulsivity predicted poorer subjective sleep quality in both women and men. Consistent with well-established associations between depression and sleep, higher levels of depression in both sexes predicted poorer subjective sleep quality. Bidirectional analyses showed that better sleep efficiency decreases depression. Finally, moderation analyses showed that gender does have a primary role in sleep efficiency and marginal effects were found. The observed relations between sleep and personality traits in a typical university sample add to converging evidence of the relationship between sleep and psychopathology and may inform our understanding of the development of psychopathology in young adulthood. PMID:26500575

  10. Internalizing and externalizing traits predict changes in sleep efficiency in emerging adulthood: an actigraphy study.

    PubMed

    Yaugher, Ashley C; Alexander, Gerianne M

    2015-01-01

    Research on psychopathology and experimental studies of sleep restriction support a relationship between sleep disruption and both internalizing and externalizing disorders. The objective of the current study was to extend this research by examining sleep, impulsivity, antisocial personality traits, and internalizing traits in a university sample. Three hundred and eighty six individuals (161 males) between the ages of 18 and 27 years (M = 18.59, SD = 0.98) wore actigraphs for 7 days and completed established measures of disorder-linked personality traits and sleep quality (i.e., Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), Triarchic Psychopathy Measure, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). As expected, sleep measures and questionnaire scores fell within the normal range of values and sex differences in sleep and personality were consistent with previous research results. Similar to findings in predominantly male forensic psychiatric settings, higher levels of impulsivity predicted poorer subjective sleep quality in both women and men. Consistent with well-established associations between depression and sleep, higher levels of depression in both sexes predicted poorer subjective sleep quality. Bidirectional analyses showed that better sleep efficiency decreases depression. Finally, moderation analyses showed that gender does have a primary role in sleep efficiency and marginal effects were found. The observed relations between sleep and personality traits in a typical university sample add to converging evidence of the relationship between sleep and psychopathology and may inform our understanding of the development of psychopathology in young adulthood. PMID:26500575

  11. Efficient Gaussian Process-Based Modelling and Prediction of Image Time Series.

    PubMed

    Lorenzi, Marco; Ziegler, Gabriel; Alexander, Daniel C; Ourselin, Sebastien

    2015-01-01

    In this work we propose a novel Gaussian process-based spatio-temporal model of time series of images. By assuming separability of spatial and temporal processes we provide a very efficient and robust formulation for the marginal likelihood computation and the posterior prediction. The model adaptively accounts for local spatial correlations of the data, and the covariance structure is effectively parameterised by the Kronecker product of covariance matrices of very small size, each encoding only a single direction in space. We provide a simple and flexible framework for within- and between-subject modelling and prediction. In particular, we introduce the Hoffman-Ribak method for efficient inference on posterior processes and its uncertainty. The proposed framework is applied in the context of longitudinal modelling in Alzheimer's disease. We firstly demonstrate the advantage of our non-parametric method for modelling of within-subject structural changes. The results show that non-parametric methods demonstrably outperform conventional parametric methods. Then the framework is extended to optimize complex parametrized covariate kernels. Using Bayesian model comparison via marginal likelihood the framework enables to compare different hypotheses about individual change processes of images. PMID:26221708

  12. Early Improvements in Individual Symptoms to Predict Later Remission in Major Depressive Disorder Treated With Mirtazapine.

    PubMed

    Funaki, Kei; Nakajima, Shinichiro; Suzuki, Takefumi; Mimura, Masaru; Uchida, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Few studies, to our knowledge, have examined whether early improvements in individual, instead of overall, depressive symptoms predict remission in major depressive disorder (MDD). This post hoc analysis used data from 194 patients with MDD enrolled in a 6-week double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of mirtazapine, to identify improvements in specific individual depressive symptoms in the early phase that are associated with subsequent remission. Trajectories of individual depressive symptoms over 6 weeks were compared between remitters and nonremitters. Early improvement was defined as a ≥20% decrease in the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression 17 items (HAM-D17) total score in weeks 1 and 2, and remission was defined as a HAM-D17 final score of ≤7. Reliability parameters were calculated for early improvements in predicting later remission. Whether improvement in each of the HAM-D17 symptoms in weeks 1 or 2 predicted remission was examined, using binary logistic regression analyses. As a result, improvements in weeks 1 and 2 were associated with sensitivity of 0.82 and 0.99 and specificity of 0.54 and 0.44, respectively, in predicting remission in week 6. Improvements in insomnia late (P = .04) and insight (P = .007) in week 1 and somatic symptoms general (P = .002) and insight (P = .04) in week 2 were associated with remission in week 6. In conclusion, early improvements in insight, insomnia late, and somatic symptoms general, as well as overall depressive symptoms, may serve as specific clinical indicators of subsequent remission in patients with MDD receiving mirtazapine. PMID:26813241

  13. Human brain structure predicts individual differences in preconscious evaluation of facial dominance and trustworthiness.

    PubMed

    Getov, Spas; Kanai, Ryota; Bahrami, Bahador; Rees, Geraint

    2015-05-01

    Social cues conveyed by the human face, such as eye gaze direction, are evaluated even before they are consciously perceived. While there is substantial individual variability in such evaluation, its neural basis is unknown. Here we asked whether individual differences in preconscious evaluation of social face traits were associated with local variability in brain structure. Adult human participants (n = 36) monocularly viewed faces varying in dominance and trustworthiness, which were suppressed from awareness by a dynamic noise pattern shown to the other eye. The time taken for faces to emerge from suppression and become visible (t2e) was used as a measure of potency in competing for visual awareness. Both dominant and untrustworthy faces resulted in slower t2e than neutral faces, with substantial individual variability in these effects. Individual differences in t2e were correlated with gray matter volume in right insula for dominant faces, and with gray matter volume in medial prefrontal cortex, right temporoparietal junction and bilateral fusiform face area for untrustworthy faces. Thus, individual differences in preconscious social processing can be predicted from local brain structure, and separable correlates for facial dominance and untrustworthiness suggest distinct mechanisms of preconscious processing. PMID:25193945

  14. Human brain structure predicts individual differences in preconscious evaluation of facial dominance and trustworthiness

    PubMed Central

    Kanai, Ryota; Bahrami, Bahador; Rees, Geraint

    2015-01-01

    Social cues conveyed by the human face, such as eye gaze direction, are evaluated even before they are consciously perceived. While there is substantial individual variability in such evaluation, its neural basis is unknown. Here we asked whether individual differences in preconscious evaluation of social face traits were associated with local variability in brain structure. Adult human participants (n = 36) monocularly viewed faces varying in dominance and trustworthiness, which were suppressed from awareness by a dynamic noise pattern shown to the other eye. The time taken for faces to emerge from suppression and become visible (t2e) was used as a measure of potency in competing for visual awareness. Both dominant and untrustworthy faces resulted in slower t2e than neutral faces, with substantial individual variability in these effects. Individual differences in t2e were correlated with gray matter volume in right insula for dominant faces, and with gray matter volume in medial prefrontal cortex, right temporoparietal junction and bilateral fusiform face area for untrustworthy faces. Thus, individual differences in preconscious social processing can be predicted from local brain structure, and separable correlates for facial dominance and untrustworthiness suggest distinct mechanisms of preconscious processing. PMID:25193945

  15. Prediction of Driving Safety in Individuals with Homonymous Hemianopia and Quadrantanopia from Clinical Neuroimaging

    PubMed Central

    Vaphiades, Michael S.; Kline, Lanning B.; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from −0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions. PMID:24683493

  16. Prediction of driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia and quadrantanopia from clinical neuroimaging.

    PubMed

    Vaphiades, Michael S; Kline, Lanning B; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M

    2014-01-01

    Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions. PMID:24683493

  17. Efficient Prediction of Co-Complexed Proteins Based on Coevolution

    PubMed Central

    de Vienne, Damien M.; Azé, Jérôme

    2012-01-01

    The prediction of the network of protein-protein interactions (PPI) of an organism is crucial for the understanding of biological processes and for the development of new drugs. Machine learning methods have been successfully applied to the prediction of PPI in yeast by the integration of multiple direct and indirect biological data sources. However, experimental data are not available for most organisms. We propose here an ensemble machine learning approach for the prediction of PPI that depends solely on features independent from experimental data. We developed new estimators of the coevolution between proteins and combined them in an ensemble learning procedure. We applied this method to a dataset of known co-complexed proteins in Escherichia coli and compared it to previously published methods. We show that our method allows prediction of PPI with an unprecedented precision of 95.5% for the first 200 sorted pairs of proteins compared to 28.5% on the same dataset with the previous best method. A close inspection of the best predicted pairs allowed us to detect new or recently discovered interactions between chemotactic components, the flagellar apparatus and RNA polymerase complexes in E. coli. PMID:23152796

  18. Individual Differences in Childhood Sleep Problems Predict Later Cognitive Executive Control

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Naomi P.; Corley, Robin P.; Hewitt, John K.; Wright, Kenneth P.

    2009-01-01

    Study Objective: To determine whether individual differences in developmental patterns of general sleep problems are associated with 3 executive function abilities—inhibiting, updating working memory, and task shifting—in late adolescence. Participants: 916 twins (465 female, 451 male) and parents from the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Study. Measurements and Results: Parents reported their children's sleep problems at ages 4 years, 5 y, 7 y, and 9–16 y based on a 7-item scale from the Child-Behavior Checklist; a subset of children (n = 568) completed laboratory assessments of executive functions at age 17. Latent variable growth curve analyses were used to model individual differences in longitudinal trajectories of childhood sleep problems. Sleep problems declined over time, with ~70% of children having ≥ 1 problem at age 4 and ~33% of children at age 16. However, significant individual differences in both the initial levels of problems (intercept) and changes across time (slope) were observed. When executive function latent variables were added to the model, the intercept did not significantly correlate with the later executive function latent variables; however, the slope variable significantly (P < 0.05) negatively correlated with inhibiting (r = −0.27) and updating (r = −0.21), but not shifting (r = −0.10) abilities. Further analyses suggested that the slope variable predicted the variance common to the 3 executive functions (r = −0.29). Conclusions: Early levels of sleep problems do not seem to have appreciable implications for later executive functioning. However, individuals whose sleep problems decrease more across time show better general executive control in late adolescence. Citation: Friedman NP; Corley RP; Hewitt JK; Wright KP. Individual differences in childhood sleep problems predict later cognitive executive control. SLEEP 2009;32(3):323-333. PMID:19294952

  19. Predicting the efficacy of radiotherapy in individual glioblastoma patients in vivo: a mathematical modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rockne, R.; Rockhill, J. K.; Mrugala, M.; Spence, A. M.; Kalet, I.; Hendrickson, K.; Lai, A.; Cloughesy, T.; Alvord, E. C., Jr.; Swanson, K. R.

    2010-06-01

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most malignant form of primary brain tumors known as gliomas. They proliferate and invade extensively and yield short life expectancies despite aggressive treatment. Response to treatment is usually measured in terms of the survival of groups of patients treated similarly, but this statistical approach misses the subgroups that may have responded to or may have been injured by treatment. Such statistics offer scant reassurance to individual patients who have suffered through these treatments. Furthermore, current imaging-based treatment response metrics in individual patients ignore patient-specific differences in tumor growth kinetics, which have been shown to vary widely across patients even within the same histological diagnosis and, unfortunately, these metrics have shown only minimal success in predicting patient outcome. We consider nine newly diagnosed GBM patients receiving diagnostic biopsy followed by standard-of-care external beam radiation therapy (XRT). We present and apply a patient-specific, biologically based mathematical model for glioma growth that quantifies response to XRT in individual patients in vivo. The mathematical model uses net rates of proliferation and migration of malignant tumor cells to characterize the tumor's growth and invasion along with the linear-quadratic model for the response to radiation therapy. Using only routinely available pre-treatment MRIs to inform the patient-specific bio-mathematical model simulations, we find that radiation response in these patients, quantified by both clinical and model-generated measures, could have been predicted prior to treatment with high accuracy. Specifically, we find that the net proliferation rate is correlated with the radiation response parameter (r = 0.89, p = 0.0007), resulting in a predictive relationship that is tested with a leave-one-out cross-validation technique. This relationship predicts the tumor size post-therapy to within inter

  20. Lexical familiarity and processing efficiency: individual differences in naming, lexical decision, and semantic categorization.

    PubMed

    Lewellen, M J; Goldinger, S D; Pisoni, D B; Greene, B G

    1993-09-01

    College students were separated into 2 groups (high and low) on the basis of 3 measures: subjective familiarity ratings of words, self-reported language experiences, and a test of vocabulary knowledge. Three experiments were conducted to determine if the groups also differed in visual word naming, lexical decision, and semantic categorization. High Ss were consistently faster than low Ss in naming visually presented words. They were also faster and more accurate in making difficult lexical decisions and in rejecting homophone foils in semantic categorization. Taken together, the results demonstrate that Ss who differ in lexical familiarity also differ in processing efficiency. The relationship between processing efficiency and working memory accounts of individual differences in language processing is also discussed. PMID:8371087

  1. Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

    PubMed Central

    Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

    2014-01-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

  2. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

    PubMed

    Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

    2014-03-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

  3. Towards a comprehensive model for predicting the quality of individual visual experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Yi; Heynderickx, Ingrid; Hanjalic, Alan; Redi, Judith A.

    2015-03-01

    Recently, a lot of effort has been devoted to estimating the Quality of Visual Experience (QoVE) in order to optimize video delivery to the user. For many decades, existing objective metrics mainly focused on estimating the perceived quality of a video, i.e., the extent to which artifacts due to e.g. compression disrupt the appearance of the video. Other aspects of the visual experience, such as enjoyment of the video content, were, however, neglected. In addition, typically Mean Opinion Scores were targeted, deeming the prediction of individual quality preferences too hard of a problem. In this paper, we propose a paradigm shift, and evaluate the opportunity of predicting individual QoVE preferences, in terms of video enjoyment as well as perceived quality. To do so, we explore the potential of features of different nature to be predictive for a user's specific experience with a video. We consider thus not only features related to the perceptual characteristics of a video, but also to its affective content. Furthermore, we also integrate in our framework the information about the user and use context. The results show that effective feature combinations can be identified to estimate the QoVE from the perspective of both the enjoyment and perceived quality.

  4. Structured Set Intra Prediction With Discriminative Learning in a Max-Margin Markov Network for High Efficiency Video Coding

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Wenrui; Xiong, Hongkai; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Chen, Chang Wen

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel model on intra coding for High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC), which simultaneously predicts blocks of pixels with optimal rate distortion. It utilizes the spatial statistical correlation for the optimal prediction based on 2-D contexts, in addition to formulating the data-driven structural interdependences to make the prediction error coherent with the probability distribution, which is desirable for successful transform and coding. The structured set prediction model incorporates a max-margin Markov network (M3N) to regulate and optimize multiple block predictions. The model parameters are learned by discriminating the actual pixel value from other possible estimates to maximize the margin (i.e., decision boundary bandwidth). Compared to existing methods that focus on minimizing prediction error, the M3N-based model adaptively maintains the coherence for a set of predictions. Specifically, the proposed model concurrently optimizes a set of predictions by associating the loss for individual blocks to the joint distribution of succeeding discrete cosine transform coefficients. When the sample size grows, the prediction error is asymptotically upper bounded by the training error under the decomposable loss function. As an internal step, we optimize the underlying Markov network structure to find states that achieve the maximal energy using expectation propagation. For validation, we integrate the proposed model into HEVC for optimal mode selection on rate-distortion optimization. The proposed prediction model obtains up to 2.85% bit rate reduction and achieves better visual quality in comparison to the HEVC intra coding. PMID:25505829

  5. Thalamic functional connectivity predicts seizure laterality in individual TLE patients: Application of a biomarker development strategy

    PubMed Central

    Barron, Daniel S.; Fox, Peter T.; Pardoe, Heath; Lancaster, Jack; Price, Larry R.; Blackmon, Karen; Berry, Kristen; Cavazos, Jose E.; Kuzniecky, Ruben; Devinsky, Orrin; Thesen, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Noninvasive markers of brain function could yield biomarkers in many neurological disorders. Disease models constrained by coordinate-based meta-analysis are likely to increase this yield. Here, we evaluate a thalamic model of temporal lobe epilepsy that we proposed in a coordinate-based meta-analysis and extended in a diffusion tractography study of an independent patient population. Specifically, we evaluated whether thalamic functional connectivity (resting-state fMRI-BOLD) with temporal lobe areas can predict seizure onset laterality, as established with intracranial EEG. Twenty-four lesional and non-lesional temporal lobe epilepsy patients were studied. No significant differences in functional connection strength in patient and control groups were observed with Mann-Whitney Tests (corrected for multiple comparisons). Notwithstanding the lack of group differences, individual patient difference scores (from control mean connection strength) successfully predicted seizure onset zone as shown in ROC curves: discriminant analysis (two-dimensional) predicted seizure onset zone with 85% sensitivity and 91% specificity; logistic regression (four-dimensional) achieved 86% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The strongest markers in both analyses were left thalamo-hippocampal and right thalamo-entorhinal cortex functional connection strength. Thus, this study shows that thalamic functional connections are sensitive and specific markers of seizure onset laterality in individual temporal lobe epilepsy patients. This study also advances an overall strategy for the programmatic development of neuroimaging biomarkers in clinical and genetic populations: a disease model informed by coordinate-based meta-analysis was used to anatomically constrain individual patient analyses. PMID:25610790

  6. Individual Radiosensitivity Measured With Lymphocytes May Predict the Risk of Acute Reaction After Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Borgmann, Kerstin; Hoeller, Ulrike; Nowack, Sven; Bernhard, Michael; Roeper, Barbara; Brackrock, Sophie; Petersen, Cordula; Szymczak, Silke; Ziegler, Andreas; Feyer, Petra; Alberti, Winfried; Dikomey, Ekkehard

    2008-05-01

    Purpose: We tested whether the chromosomal radiosensitivity of in vitro irradiated lymphocytes could be used to predict the risk of acute reactions after radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Two prospective studies were performed: study A with 51 patients included different tumor sites and study B included 87 breast cancer patients. Acute reaction was assessed using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group score. In both studies, patients were treated with curative radiotherapy, and the mean tumor dose applied was 55 Gy (40-65) {+-} boost with 11 Gy (6-31) in study A and 50.4 Gy {+-} boost with 10 Gy in study B. Individual radiosensitivity was determined with lymphocytes irradiated in vitro with X-ray doses of either 3 or 6 Gy and scoring the number of chromosomal deletions. Results: Acute reactions displayed a typical spectrum with 57% in study A and 53% in study B showing an acute reaction of Grade 2-3. Individual radiosensitivity in both studies was characterized by a substantial variation and the fraction of patients with Grade 2-3 reaction was found to increase with increasing individual radiosensitivity measured at 6 Gy (study A, p = 0.238; study B, p = 0.023). For study B, this fraction increased with breast volume, and the impact of individual radiosensitivity on acute reaction was especially pronounced (p = 0.00025) for lower breast volume. No such clear association with acute reaction was observed when individual radiosensitivity was assessed at 3 Gy. Conclusion: Individual radiosensitivity determined at 6 Gy seems to be a good predictor for risk of acute effects after curative radiotherapy.

  7. Frontolimbic neural circuitry at 6 months predicts individual differences in joint attention at 9 months.

    PubMed

    Elison, Jed T; Wolff, Jason J; Heimer, Debra C; Paterson, Sarah J; Gu, Hongbin; Hazlett, Heather C; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Piven, Joseph

    2013-03-01

    Elucidating the neural basis of joint attention in infancy promises to yield important insights into the development of language and social cognition, and directly informs developmental models of autism. We describe a new method for evaluating responding to joint attention performance in infancy that highlights the 9- to 10-month period as a time interval of maximal individual differences. We then demonstrate that fractional anisotropy in the right uncinate fasciculus, a white matter fiber bundle connecting the amygdala to the ventral-medial prefrontal cortex and anterior temporal pole, measured in 6-month-olds predicts individual differences in responding to joint attention at 9 months of age. The white matter microstructure of the right uncinate was not related to receptive language ability at 9 months. These findings suggest that the development of core nonverbal social communication skills in infancy is largely supported by preceding developments within right lateralized frontotemporal brain systems. PMID:23432829

  8. Frontolimbic Neural Circuitry at 6 Months Predicts Individual Differences in Joint Attention at 9 Months

    PubMed Central

    Elison, Jed T.; Wolff, Jason J.; Heimer, Debra C.; Paterson, Sarah J.; Gu, Hongbin; Hazlett, Heather C.; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Piven, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Elucidating the neural basis of joint attention in infancy promises to yield important insights into the development of language and social cognition, and directly informs developmental models of autism. We describe a new method for evaluating responding to joint attention performance in infancy that highlights the 9 to 10 month period as a time interval of maximal individual differences. We then demonstrate that fractional anisotropy in the right uncinate fasciculus, a white matter fiber bundle connecting the amygdala to the ventral-medial prefrontal cortex and anterior temporal pole, measured in 6 month-olds predicts individual differences in responding to joint attention at 9 months of age. The white matter microstructure of the right uncinate was not related to receptive language ability at 9 months. These findings suggest that the development of core nonverbal social communication skills in infancy is largely supported by preceding developments within right lateralized frontotemporal brain systems. PMID:23432829

  9. Verbal working memory predicts co-speech gesture: evidence from individual differences.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Maureen; James, Ariel N; Federmeier, Kara D; Watson, Duane G

    2014-08-01

    Gesture facilitates language production, but there is debate surrounding its exact role. It has been argued that gestures lighten the load on verbal working memory (VWM; Goldin-Meadow, Nusbaum, Kelly, & Wagner, 2001), but gestures have also been argued to aid in lexical retrieval (Krauss, 1998). In the current study, 50 speakers completed an individual differences battery that included measures of VWM and lexical retrieval. To elicit gesture, each speaker described short cartoon clips immediately after viewing. Measures of lexical retrieval did not predict spontaneous gesture rates, but lower VWM was associated with higher gesture rates, suggesting that gestures can facilitate language production by supporting VWM when resources are taxed. These data also suggest that individual variability in the propensity to gesture is partly linked to cognitive capacities. PMID:24813571

  10. Acceleration response spectrum for prediction of structural vibration due to individual bouncing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jun; Wang, Lei; Racic, Vitomir; Lou, Jiayue

    2016-08-01

    This study is designed to develop an acceleration response spectrum that can be used in vibration serviceability assessment of civil engineering structures, such as floors and grandstands those are dynamically excited by individual bouncing. The spectrum is derived from numerical simulations and statistical analysis of acceleration responses of a single degree of freedom system with variable natural frequency and damping under a large number of experimentally measured individual bouncing loads. Its mathematical representation is fit for fast yet reliable application in design practice and is comprised of three equations that describe three distinct frequency regions observed in the actual data: the first resonant plateau (2-3.5 Hz), the second resonant plateau (4-7 Hz) and a descension region (7-15 Hz). Finally, this paper verifies the proposed response spectrum approach to predict structural vibration by direct comparison against numerical simulations and experimental results.

  11. Improving Neural Network Prediction Accuracy for PM10 Individual Air Quality Index Pollution Levels

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Qi; Wu, Shengjun; Du, Yun; Xue, Huaiping; Xiao, Fei; Ban, Xuan; Li, Xiaodong

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Fugitive dust deriving from construction sites is a serious local source of particulate matter (PM) that leads to air pollution in cities undergoing rapid urbanization in China. In spite of this fact, no study has yet been published relating to prediction of high levels of PM with diameters <10 μm (PM10) as adjudicated by the Individual Air Quality Index (IAQI) on fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. To combat this problem, the Construction Influence Index (Ci) is introduced in this article to improve forecasting models based on three neural network models (multilayer perceptron, Elman, and support vector machine) in predicting daily PM10 IAQI one day in advance. To obtain acceptable forecasting accuracy, measured time series data were decomposed into wavelet representations and wavelet coefficients were predicted. Effectiveness of these forecasters were tested using a time series recorded between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, at six monitoring stations situated within the urban area of the city of Wuhan, China. Experimental trials showed that the improved models provided low root mean square error values and mean absolute error values in comparison to the original models. In addition, these improved models resulted in higher values of coefficients of determination and AHPC (the accuracy rate of high PM10 IAQI caused by nearby construction activity) compared to the original models when predicting high PM10 IAQI levels attributable to fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. PMID:24381481

  12. Predicting Efficient Antenna Ligands for Tb(III) Emission

    SciTech Connect

    Samuel, Amanda P.S.; Xu, Jide; Raymond, Kenneth

    2008-10-06

    A series of highly luminescent Tb(III) complexes of para-substituted 2-hydroxyisophthalamide ligands (5LI-IAM-X) has been prepared (X = H, CH{sub 3}, (C=O)NHCH{sub 3}, SO{sub 3}{sup -}, NO{sub 2}, OCH{sub 3}, F, Cl, Br) to probe the effect of substituting the isophthalamide ring on ligand and Tb(III) emission in order to establish a method for predicting the effects of chromophore modification on Tb(III) luminescence. The energies of the ligand singlet and triplet excited states are found to increase linearly with the {pi}-withdrawing ability of the substituent. The experimental results are supported by time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations performed on model systems, which predict ligand singlet and triplet energies within {approx}5% of the experimental values. The quantum yield ({Phi}) values of the Tb(III) complex increases with the triplet energy of the ligand, which is in part due to the decreased non-radiative deactivation caused by thermal repopulation of the triplet. Together, the experimental and theoretical results serve as a predictive tool that can be used to guide the synthesis of ligands used to sensitize lanthanide luminescence.

  13. Performance of a Portable Sleep Monitoring Device in Individuals with High Versus Low Sleep Efficiency

    PubMed Central

    Markwald, Rachel R.; Bessman, Sara C.; Reini, Seth A.; Drummond, Sean P.A.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Portable and automated sleep monitoring technology is becoming widely available to consumers, and one wireless system (WS) has recently surfaced as a research tool for sleep and sleep staging assessment outside the hospital/laboratory; however, previous research findings indicate low sensitivity for wakefulness detection. Because difficulty discriminating between wake and sleep is likely to affect staging performance, we sought to further evaluate the WS by comparing it to the gold-standard polysomnography (PSG) and actigraphy (ACT) for overall sleep/wakefulness detection and sleep staging, within high and low sleep efficiency sleepers. Methods: Twenty-nine healthy adults (eight females) underwent concurrent WS, PSG, and ACT assessment in an overnight laboratory study. Epoch-by-epoch agreement was determined by comparing sleep/wakefulness decisions between the WS to both PSG and ACT, and for detection of light, deep, and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep stages between the WS and PSG. Results: Sensitivity for wakefulness was low (40%), and an overestimation of total sleep time and underestimation of wake after sleep onset was observed. Prevalence and bias adjusted kappa statistic indicated moderate-to-high agreement between the WS and PSG for sleep staging. However, upon further inspection, WS performance varied by sleep efficiency, with the best performance during high sleep efficiency. Conclusions: The benefit of the WS as a sleep monitoring device over ACT is the ability to assess sleep stages, and our findings suggest this benefit is only realized within high sleep efficiency. Care should be taken to collect data under conditions where this is expected. Citation: Markwald RR, Bessman SC, Reini SA, Drummond SP. Performance of a portable sleep monitoring device in individuals with high versus low sleep efficiency. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(1):95–103. PMID:26285110

  14. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    PubMed Central

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus BM; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Background Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient’s individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI), weight, and/or height. Methods Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean) cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast® device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland). Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right), totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5–4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area). Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires. Results The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades) and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades). Compared with baseline, no patient’s condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, P<0.05) correlation was found between individual values for δ-1 and δ-2 and cellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight, height, or age. Conclusion Radial shock wave therapy is a safe and effective treatment option for cellulite. The

  15. Plasma HHV8 DNA predicts relapse in individuals with HIV-associated multicentric Castleman disease.

    PubMed

    Stebbing, Justin; Adams, Caroline; Sanitt, Adam; Mletzko, Salvinia; Nelson, Mark; Gazzard, Brian; Newsom-Davis, Tom; Bower, Mark

    2011-07-14

    HIV-associated multicentric Castleman disease (HIV-MCD) is a rare lymphoproliferative disorder caused by infection with human herpesvirus-8. The disease follows a relapsing and remitting clinical course, with marked systemic symptoms during an active attack, which can prove fatal. Its incidence is rising, and new data indicate the utility of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody rituximab at inducing remissions in both first- and second-line settings, although biomarkers associated with relapse have not been previously identified. In 52 individuals with a histologic diagnosis of HIV-MCD, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict factors associated with an HIV-MCD attack. Although a younger age (< 50 years) was associated with an attack, the strongest association was observed with plasma levels of human herpesvirus-8 DNA. Rising levels predicted an attack (hazard ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-6.7), and maintenance therapy with rituximab should be considered in these individuals. PMID:21511959

  16. Individual differences in bodily freezing predict emotional biases in decision making

    PubMed Central

    Ly, Verena; Huys, Quentin J. M.; Stins, John F.; Roelofs, Karin; Cools, Roshan

    2014-01-01

    Instrumental decision making has long been argued to be vulnerable to emotional responses. Literature on multiple decision making systems suggests that this emotional biasing might reflect effects of a system that regulates innately specified, evolutionarily preprogrammed responses. To test this hypothesis directly, we investigated whether effects of emotional faces on instrumental action can be predicted by effects of emotional faces on bodily freezing, an innately specified response to aversive relative to appetitive cues. We tested 43 women using a novel emotional decision making task combined with posturography, which involves a force platform to detect small oscillations of the body to accurately quantify postural control in upright stance. On the platform, participants learned whole body approach-avoidance actions based on monetary feedback, while being primed by emotional faces (angry/happy). Our data evidence an emotional biasing of instrumental action. Thus, angry relative to happy faces slowed instrumental approach relative to avoidance responses. Critically, individual differences in this emotional biasing effect were predicted by individual differences in bodily freezing. This result suggests that emotional biasing of instrumental action involves interaction with a system that controls innately specified responses. Furthermore, our findings help bridge (animal and human) decision making and emotion research to advance our mechanistic understanding of decision making anomalies in daily encounters as well as in a wide range of psychopathology. PMID:25071491

  17. Age-related and individual differences in the use of prediction during language comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Federmeier, Kara D.; Kutas, Marta; Schul, Rina

    2010-01-01

    During sentence comprehension, older adults are less likely than younger adults to predict features of likely upcoming words. A pair of experiments assessed whether such differences would extend to tasks with reduced working memory demands and time pressures. In Experiment 1, event-related brain potentials were measured as younger and older adults read short phrases cuing antonyms or category exemplars, followed three seconds later by targets that were either congruent or incongruent and, for congruent category exemplars, of higher or lower typicality. When processing the less expected low typicality targets, younger – but not older – adults elicited a prefrontal positivity (500–900 ms) that has been linked to processing consequences of having predictions disconfirmed. Thus, age-related changes in prediction during comprehension generalize across task circumstances. Analyses of individual differences revealed that older adults with higher category fluency were more likely to show the young-like pattern. Experiment 2 showed that these age-related differences were not due to simple slowing of language production mechanisms, as older adults generated overt responses to the cues as quickly as – and more accurately than – younger adults. However, older adults who were relatively faster to produce category exemplars in Experiment 2 were more likely to have shown predictive processing patterns in Experiment 1. Taken together, the results link prediction during language comprehension to language production mechanisms and suggest that although older adults can produce speeded language output on demand, they are less likely to automatically recruit these mechanisms during comprehension unless top-down circuitry is particularly strong. PMID:20728207

  18. Efficient Unstructured Grid Adaptation Methods for Sonic Boom Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, Richard L.; Carter, Melissa B.; Deere, Karen A.; Waithe, Kenrick A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the use of two grid adaptation methods to improve the accuracy of the near-to-mid field pressure signature prediction of supersonic aircraft computed using the USM3D unstructured grid flow solver. The first method (ADV) is an interactive adaptation process that uses grid movement rather than enrichment to more accurately resolve the expansion and compression waves. The second method (SSGRID) uses an a priori adaptation approach to stretch and shear the original unstructured grid to align the grid with the pressure waves and reduce the cell count required to achieve an accurate signature prediction at a given distance from the vehicle. Both methods initially create negative volume cells that are repaired in a module in the ADV code. While both approaches provide significant improvements in the near field signature (< 3 body lengths) relative to a baseline grid without increasing the number of grid points, only the SSGRID approach allows the details of the signature to be accurately computed at mid-field distances (3-10 body lengths) for direct use with mid-field-to-ground boom propagation codes.

  19. RESIDUA UPGRADING EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT MODELS: COKE FORMATION PREDICTABILITY MAPS

    SciTech Connect

    John F. Schabron; A. Troy Pauli; Joseph F. Rovani Jr.

    2002-05-01

    The dispersed particle solution model of petroleum residua structure was used to develop predictors for pyrolytic coke formation. Coking Indexes were developed in prior years that measure how near a pyrolysis system is to coke formation during the coke formation induction period. These have been demonstrated to be universally applicable for residua regardless of the source of the material. Coking onset is coincidental with the destruction of the ordered structure and the formation of a multiphase system. The amount of coke initially formed appears to be a function of the free solvent volume of the original residua. In the current work, three-dimensional coke make predictability maps were developed at 400 C, 450 C, and 500 C (752 F, 842 F, and 932 F). These relate residence time and free solvent volume to the amount of coke formed at a particular pyrolysis temperature. Activation energies for two apparent types of zero-order coke formation reactions were estimated. The results provide a new tool for ranking residua, gauging proximity to coke formation, and predicting initial coke make tendencies.

  20. Efficient prediction methods for selecting effective siRNA sequences.

    PubMed

    Takasaki, Shigeru

    2010-02-01

    Although short interfering RNA (siRNA) has been widely used for studying gene functions in mammalian cells, its gene silencing efficacy varies markedly and there are only a few consistencies among the recently reported design rules/guidelines for selecting siRNA sequences effective for mammalian genes. Another shortcoming of the previously reported methods is that they cannot estimate the probability that a candidate sequence will silence the target gene. This paper first reviewed the recently reported siRNA design guidelines and clarified the problems concerning the guidelines. It then proposed two prediction methods-Radial Basis Function (RBF) network and decision tree learning-and their combined method for selecting effective siRNA target sequences from many possible candidate sequences. They are quite different from the previous score-based siRNA design techniques and can predict the probability that a candidate siRNA sequence will be effective. The methods imply high estimation accuracy for selecting candidate siRNA sequences. PMID:20022002

  1. Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ferket, Bart S.; van Kempen, Bob J. H.; Heeringa, Jan; Spronk, Sandra; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.; Nijhuis, Rogier L. G.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Hunink, M. G. Myriam

    2012-01-01

    Background Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be

  2. Increased Copper in Individuals with Autism Normalizes Post Zinc Therapy More Efficiently in Individuals with Concurrent GI Disease

    PubMed Central

    Russo, Anthony J.

    2011-01-01

    Aim: To assess plasma zinc and copper concentration in individuals with autism. Subjects and methods: Plasma from 79 autistic individuals, and 18 age and gender similar neurotypical controls, were tested for plasma zinc and copper using inductively-coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Results: Autistic individuals had significantly elevated plasma levels of copper and Cu/Zn and lower, but not significantly lower, plasma Zn compared to neurotypical controls. Zn levels increased significantly in autistic individuals with and without GI disease after zinc therapy. Cu decreased significantly after zinc therapy in the GI disease group but not in the autistic group without GI disease. Autistic children significantly improved with respect to hyperactivity and stimming after zinc therapy in autistic children with GI disease. Autistic children without GI disease did not improve in these symptoms after the same therapy. Discussion: These results suggest an association between zinc and copper plasma levels and autism, and they suggest that zinc therapy may be most effective at lowering copper levels in autistic children with GI disease. PMID:23946661

  3. Sibling configuration predicts individual and descendant socioeconomic success in a modern post-industrial society.

    PubMed

    Lawson, David W; Makoli, Arijeta; Goodman, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Growing up with many siblings, at least in the context of modern post-industrial low fertility, low mortality societies, is predictive of relatively poor performance on school tests in childhood, lower levels of educational attainment, and lower income throughout adulthood. Recent studies further indicate these relationships hold across generations, so that the descendants of those who grow up with many siblings are also at an apparent socioeconomic disadvantage. In this paper we add to this literature by considering whether such relationships interact with the sex and relative age of siblings. To do this we utilise a unique Swedish multigenerational birth cohort study that provides sibling configuration data on over 10,000 individuals born in 1915-1929, plus all their direct genetic descendants to the present day. Adjusting for parental and birth characteristics, we find that the 'socioeconomic cost' of growing up in a large family is independent of both the sex of siblings and the sex of the individual. However, growing up with several older as opposed to several younger siblings is predictive of relatively poor performance on school tests and a lower likelihood of progression to tertiary education. This later-born disadvantage also holds across generations, with the children of those with many older siblings achieving lower levels of educational attainment. Despite these differences, we find that while individual and descendant income is negatively related to the number of siblings, it is not influenced by the relative age of siblings. Thus, our findings imply that the educational disadvantage of later-born children, demonstrated here and in numerous other studies, does not necessarily translate into reduced earnings in adulthood. We discuss potential explanations for this pattern of results, and consider some important directions for future research into sibling configuration and wellbeing in modern societies. PMID:24040031

  4. Individual differences in cortisol stress response predict increases in voice pitch during exam stress.

    PubMed

    Pisanski, Katarzyna; Nowak, Judyta; Sorokowski, Piotr

    2016-09-01

    Despite a long history of empirical research, the potential vocal markers of stress remain unclear. Previous studies examining speech under stress most consistently report an increase in voice pitch (the acoustic correlate of fundamental frequency, F0), however numerous studies have failed to replicate this finding. In the present study we tested the prediction that these inconsistencies are tied to variation in the severity of the stress response, wherein voice changes may be observed predominantly among individuals who show a cortisol stress response (i.e., an increase in free cortisol levels) above a critical threshold. Voice recordings and saliva samples were collected from university psychology students at baseline and again immediately prior to an oral examination. Voice recordings included both read and spontaneous speech, from which we measured mean, minimum, maximum, and the standard deviation in F0. We observed an increase in mean and minimum F0 under stress in both read and spontaneous speech, whereas maximum F0 and its standard deviation showed no systematic changes under stress. Our results confirmed that free cortisol levels increased by an average of 74% (ranging from 0 to 270%) under stress. Critically, increases in cortisol concentrations significantly predicted increases in mean F0 under stress for both speech types, but did not predict variation in F0 at baseline. On average, stress-induced increases in voice pitch occurred only when free cortisol levels more than doubled their baseline concentrations. Our results suggest that researchers examining speech under stress should control for individual differences in the magnitude of the stress response. PMID:27188981

  5. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction.

    PubMed

    Wessel, Jennifer; Gupta, Jyoti; de Groot, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598) were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%), online registry (37%) and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%). Respondents were 37 ± 11 years old, primarily White (54%), female (69%), college educated (46%), with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%). Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52%) and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9)]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48)]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42)]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60)], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6)]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7)]) and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30)]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing. PMID:26789839

  6. Factors Motivating Individuals to Consider Genetic Testing for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Wessel, Jennifer; Gupta, Jyoti; de Groot, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify attitudes and perceptions of willingness to participate in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction in the general population. Adults (n = 598) were surveyed on attitudes about utilizing genetic testing to predict future risk of T2D. Participants were recruited from public libraries (53%), online registry (37%) and a safety net hospital emergency department (10%). Respondents were 37±11 years old, primarily White (54%), female (69%), college educated (46%), with an annual income ≥$25,000 (56%). Half of participants were interested in genetic testing for T2D (52%) and 81% agreed/strongly agreed genetic testing should be available to the public. Only 57% of individuals knew T2D is preventable. A multivariate model to predict interest in genetic testing was adjusted for age, gender, recruitment location and BMI; significant predictors were motivation (high perceived personal risk of T2D [OR = 4.38 (1.76, 10.9)]; family history [OR = 2.56 (1.46, 4.48)]; desire to know risk prior to disease onset [OR = 3.25 (1.94, 5.42)]; and knowing T2D is preventable [OR = 2.11 (1.24, 3.60)], intention (if the cost is free [OR = 10.2 (4.27, 24.6)]; and learning T2D is preventable [OR = 5.18 (1.95, 13.7)]) and trust of genetic testing results [OR = 0.03 (0.003, 0.30)]. Individuals are interested in genetic testing for T2D risk which offers unique information that is personalized. Financial accessibility, validity of the test and availability of diabetes prevention programs were identified as predictors of interest in T2D testing. PMID:26789839

  7. Changes in Early Cortical Visual Processing Predict Enhanced Reactivity in Deaf Individuals

    PubMed Central

    Bottari, Davide; Caclin, Anne; Giard, Marie-Hélène; Pavani, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with profound deafness rely critically on vision to interact with their environment. Improvement of visual performance as a consequence of auditory deprivation is assumed to result from cross-modal changes occurring in late stages of visual processing. Here we measured reaction times and event-related potentials (ERPs) in profoundly deaf adults and hearing controls during a speeded visual detection task, to assess to what extent the enhanced reactivity of deaf individuals could reflect plastic changes in the early cortical processing of the stimulus. We found that deaf subjects were faster than hearing controls at detecting the visual targets, regardless of their location in the visual field (peripheral or peri-foveal). This behavioural facilitation was associated with ERP changes starting from the first detectable response in the striate cortex (C1 component) at about 80 ms after stimulus onset, and in the P1 complex (100–150 ms). In addition, we found that P1 peak amplitudes predicted the response times in deaf subjects, whereas in hearing individuals visual reactivity and ERP amplitudes correlated only at later stages of processing. These findings show that long-term auditory deprivation can profoundly alter visual processing from the earliest cortical stages. Furthermore, our results provide the first evidence of a co-variation between modified brain activity (cortical plasticity) and behavioural enhancement in this sensory-deprived population. PMID:21980501

  8. Individual differences in left parietal white matter predict math scores on the Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test.

    PubMed

    Matejko, Anna A; Price, Gavin R; Mazzocco, Michèle M M; Ansari, Daniel

    2013-02-01

    Mathematical skills are of critical importance, both academically and in everyday life. Neuroimaging research has primarily focused on the relationship between mathematical skills and functional brain activity. Comparatively few studies have examined which white matter regions support mathematical abilities. The current study uses diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to test whether individual differences in white matter predict performance on the math subtest of the Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test (PSAT). Grades 10 and 11 PSAT scores were obtained from 30 young adults (ages 17-18) with wide-ranging math achievement levels. Tract based spatial statistics was used to examine the correlation between PSAT math scores, fractional anisotropy (FA), radial diffusivity (RD) and axial diffusivity (AD). FA in left parietal white matter was positively correlated with math PSAT scores (specifically in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus, left superior corona radiata, and left corticospinal tract) after controlling for chronological age and same grade PSAT critical reading scores. Furthermore, RD, but not AD, was correlated with PSAT math scores in these white matter microstructures. The negative correlation with RD further suggests that participants with higher PSAT math scores have greater white matter integrity in this region. Individual differences in FA and RD may reflect variability in experience dependent plasticity over the course of learning and development. These results are the first to demonstrate that individual differences in white matter are associated with mathematical abilities on a nationally administered scholastic aptitude measure. PMID:23108272

  9. A new predictive equation for resting energy expenditure in healthy individuals.

    PubMed

    Mifflin, M D; St Jeor, S T; Hill, L A; Scott, B J; Daugherty, S A; Koh, Y O

    1990-02-01

    A predictive equation for resting energy expenditure (REE) was derived from data from 498 healthy subjects, including females (n = 247) and males (n = 251), aged 19-78 y (45 +/- 14 y, mean +/- SD). Normal-weight (n = 264) and obese (n = 234) individuals were studied and REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Multiple-regression analyses were employed to drive relationships between REE and weight, height, and age for both men and women (R2 = 0.71): REE = 9.99 x weight + 6.25 x height - 4.92 x age + 166 x sex (males, 1; females, 0) - 161. Simplification of this formula and separation by sex did not affect its predictive value: REE (males) = 10 x weight (kg) + 6.25 x height (cm) - 5 x age (y) + 5; REE (females) = 10 x weight (kg) + 6.25 x height (cm) - 5 x age (y) - 161. The inclusion of relative body weight and body-weight distribution did not significantly improve the predictive value of these equations. The Harris-Benedict Equations derived in 1919 overestimated measured REE by 5% (p less than 0.01). Fat-free mass (FFM) was the best single predictor of REE (R2 = 0.64): REE = 19.7 x FFM + 413. Weight also was closely correlated with REE (R2 = 0.56): REE = 15.1 x weight + 371. PMID:2305711

  10. Mood variability predicts the course of suicidal ideation in individuals with first and second episode psychosis.

    PubMed

    Palmier-Claus, Jasper; Shryane, Nick; Taylor, Peter; Lewis, Shôn; Drake, Richard

    2013-04-30

    Suicide risk is high in early psychosis. Recent research has suggested that mood variability may be associated with levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviour. This has not been investigated in individuals during and following a first or second episode of non-affective psychosis. Repeated-measures data over 18 months from a large randomised controlled trial for cognitive behaviour therapy (N=309) were analysed using latent growth curve modelling, whereby both the variability and the level of depression, anxiety and guilt were entered as predictors of suicidality. The variability of depression, but not guilt and anxiety, predicted the course of suicidality even when controlling for a large range of potential confounders. The level of depression, anxiety and guilt for each participant also strongly predicted the development of suicidality. The findings support the theory that variability in depression may contribute to the formation of suicidal ideation and related behaviour. More variable depression may be harder to predict and intervene against, and therefore increase the likelihood that suicidality escalates. The levels of emotions may also be an important determinant. This has implications for the treatment and assessment of suicidality in early psychosis. PMID:23234757

  11. Investigation of the relative significance of individual environmental parameters to sonar performance prediction uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ding; Xu, Wen; Schmidt, Henrik

    2002-11-01

    A large part of sonar performance prediction uncertainty is associated with the uncertain ocean acoustic environment. Optimal in situ measurement strategy, i.e. adaptively capturing the most critical uncertain environmental parameters within operational constrains can minimize the sonar performance prediction uncertainty. Understanding the relative significance of individual environmental parameters to sonar performance prediction uncertainty is fundamental to the heuristics to determine the most critical environmental parameters. Based on this understanding, the optimal parametrization of ocean acoustic environments can be defined, which will significantly simplify the adaptively sampling pattern. As an example, the matched-field processing is used to localize an unknown sound source position in a realistic ocean environment. Typical shallow water environmental models are used with some of the properties being stochastic variables. The ratio of the main lobe peak to the maximum side lobe peak of the ambiguity function and the main lobe peak displacement due to mismatch are chosen as performance metrics, respectively, in two different scenarios. The relative significance of some environmental parameters such as sediment thickness, weights of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) has been computed. Some preliminary results are discussed.

  12. Efficient Reconstruction of Predictive Consensus Metabolic Network Models

    PubMed Central

    Martins dos Santos, Vitor A. P.; Stelling, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Understanding cellular function requires accurate, comprehensive representations of metabolism. Genome-scale, constraint-based metabolic models (GSMs) provide such representations, but their usability is often hampered by inconsistencies at various levels, in particular for concurrent models. COMMGEN, our tool for COnsensus Metabolic Model GENeration, automatically identifies inconsistencies between concurrent models and semi-automatically resolves them, thereby contributing to consolidate knowledge of metabolic function. Tests of COMMGEN for four organisms showed that automatically generated consensus models were predictive and that they substantially increased coherence of knowledge representation. COMMGEN ought to be particularly useful for complex scenarios in which manual curation does not scale, such as for eukaryotic organisms, microbial communities, and host-pathogen interactions. PMID:27563720

  13. Efficient Reconstruction of Predictive Consensus Metabolic Network Models.

    PubMed

    van Heck, Ruben G A; Ganter, Mathias; Martins Dos Santos, Vitor A P; Stelling, Joerg

    2016-08-01

    Understanding cellular function requires accurate, comprehensive representations of metabolism. Genome-scale, constraint-based metabolic models (GSMs) provide such representations, but their usability is often hampered by inconsistencies at various levels, in particular for concurrent models. COMMGEN, our tool for COnsensus Metabolic Model GENeration, automatically identifies inconsistencies between concurrent models and semi-automatically resolves them, thereby contributing to consolidate knowledge of metabolic function. Tests of COMMGEN for four organisms showed that automatically generated consensus models were predictive and that they substantially increased coherence of knowledge representation. COMMGEN ought to be particularly useful for complex scenarios in which manual curation does not scale, such as for eukaryotic organisms, microbial communities, and host-pathogen interactions. PMID:27563720

  14. Efficient prediction of the quality factors of micromechanical resonators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jinbok; Cho, Maenghyo; Rhim, Jaewook

    2010-01-01

    A high quality factor (Q-factor) is one of the major requirements of high-performance resonators. An understanding of the dissipation mechanism is crucial for maximizing the quality factor by reducing the energy loss. Thermoelastic damping has been well-known as the important intrinsic dissipation that affects the quality factor of micro-resonators. In this study, a finite element formulation based on the weak form of fully coupled thermoelastic problems is suggested. The coupled thermoelastic equation usually leads to a large-size complex eigenvalue problem, which is very massive and time-consuming to solve. Therefore, we also applied the model order reduction (MOR) scheme to this coupled multiphysical problem in order to achieve computational efficiency. The present approach is validated by comparing the numerical results and analytical solutions.

  15. Predicted versus monitored performance of energy-efficiency measures in new commercial buildings from energy edge

    SciTech Connect

    Piette, M.A.; Nordman, B.; deBuen, O.; Diamond, R.

    1993-08-01

    Energy Edge is a research-oriented demonstration program involving 28 new commercial buildings in the Pacific Northwest. This paper discusses the energy savings and cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency measures for the first 12 buildings evaluated using simulation models calibrated with measured end-use data. Average energy savings per building from the simulated code baseline building was 19%, less than the 30% target. The most important factor for the lower savings is that many of the installed measures differ from the measures specified in the design predictions. Only one of the first 12 buildings met the project objective of reducing energy use by more than 30% at a cost below the target of 56 mills/kWh (in 1991 dollars). Based on results from the first 12 calibrated simulation models, 29 of the 66 energy-efficiency measures, or 44%, met the levelized cost criterion. Despite the lower energy savings from individual measures, the energy-use intensities of the buildings are lower than other regional comparison data for new buildings. The authors review factors that contribute to the uncertainty regarding measured savings and suggest methods to improve future evaluations.

  16. Predicting brain activation patterns associated with individual lexical concepts based on five sensory-motor attributes.

    PubMed

    Fernandino, Leonardo; Humphries, Colin J; Seidenberg, Mark S; Gross, William L; Conant, Lisa L; Binder, Jeffrey R

    2015-09-01

    While major advances have been made in uncovering the neural processes underlying perceptual representations, our grasp of how the brain gives rise to conceptual knowledge remains relatively poor. Recent work has provided strong evidence that concepts rely, at least in part, on the same sensory and motor neural systems through which they were acquired, but it is still unclear whether the neural code for concept representation uses information about sensory-motor features to discriminate between concepts. In the present study, we investigate this question by asking whether an encoding model based on five semantic attributes directly related to sensory-motor experience - sound, color, visual motion, shape, and manipulation - can successfully predict patterns of brain activation elicited by individual lexical concepts. We collected ratings on the relevance of these five attributes to the meaning of 820 words, and used these ratings as predictors in a multiple regression model of the fMRI signal associated with the words in a separate group of participants. The five resulting activation maps were then combined by linear summation to predict the distributed activation pattern elicited by a novel set of 80 test words. The encoding model predicted the activation patterns elicited by the test words significantly better than chance. As expected, prediction was successful for concrete but not for abstract concepts. Comparisons between encoding models based on different combinations of attributes indicate that all five attributes contribute to the representation of concrete concepts. Consistent with embodied theories of semantics, these results show, for the first time, that the distributed activation pattern associated with a concept combines information about different sensory-motor attributes according to their respective relevance. Future research should investigate how additional features of phenomenal experience contribute to the neural representation of conceptual

  17. Labour-efficient in vitro lymphocyte population tracking and fate prediction using automation and manual review.

    PubMed

    Chakravorty, Rajib; Rawlinson, David; Zhang, Alan; Markham, John; Dowling, Mark R; Wellard, Cameron; Zhou, Jie H S; Hodgkin, Philip D

    2014-01-01

    Interest in cell heterogeneity and differentiation has recently led to increased use of time-lapse microscopy. Previous studies have shown that cell fate may be determined well in advance of the event. We used a mixture of automation and manual review of time-lapse live cell imaging to track the positions, contours, divisions, deaths and lineage of 44 B-lymphocyte founders and their 631 progeny in vitro over a period of 108 hours. Using this data to train a Support Vector Machine classifier, we were retrospectively able to predict the fates of individual lymphocytes with more than 90% accuracy, using only time-lapse imaging captured prior to mitosis or death of 90% of all cells. The motivation for this paper is to explore the impact of labour-efficient assistive software tools that allow larger and more ambitious live-cell time-lapse microscopy studies. After training on this data, we show that machine learning methods can be used for realtime prediction of individual cell fates. These techniques could lead to realtime cell culture segregation for purposes such as phenotype screening. We were able to produce a large volume of data with less effort than previously reported, due to the image processing, computer vision, tracking and human-computer interaction tools used. We describe the workflow of the software-assisted experiments and the graphical interfaces that were needed. To validate our results we used our methods to reproduce a variety of published data about lymphocyte populations and behaviour. We also make all our data publicly available, including a large quantity of lymphocyte spatio-temporal dynamics and related lineage information. PMID:24404133

  18. Efficiency improvement of a new vertical axis wind turbine by individual active control of blade motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, In Seong; Min, Seung Yong; Jeong, In Oh; Lee, Yun Han; Kim, Seung Jo

    2006-03-01

    In this paper, a research for the performance improvement of the straight-bladed vertical axis wind turbine is described. To improve the performance of the power generation system, which consists of several blades rotating about axis in parallel direction, the cycloidal blade system and the individual active blade control system are adopted, respectively. Both methods are variable pitch system. For cycloidal wind turbine, aerodynamic analysis is carried out by changing pitch angle and phase angle based on the cycloidal motion according to the change of wind speed and wind direction, and control mechanism using the cycloidal blade system is realized for 1kw class wind turbine. By this method, electrical power is generated about 30% higher than wind turbine using fixed pitch angle method. And for more efficient wind turbine, individual pitch angle control of each blade is studied. By maximizing the tangential force in each rotating blade at the specific rotating position, optimal pitch angle variation is obtained. And several airfoil shapes of NACA 4-digit and NACA 6-series are studied. Aerodynamic analysis shows performance improvement of 60%. To realize this motion, sensing and actuating system is designed.

  19. Efficient Method of Achieving Agreements between Individuals and Organizations about RFID Privacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cha, Shi-Cho

    This work presents novel technical and legal approaches that address privacy concerns for personal data in RFID systems. In recent years, to minimize the conflict between convenience and the privacy risk of RFID systems, organizations have been requested to disclose their policies regarding RFID activities, obtain customer consent, and adopt appropriate mechanisms to enforce these policies. However, current research on RFID typically focuses on enforcement mechanisms to protect personal data stored in RFID tags and prevent organizations from tracking user activity through information emitted by specific RFID tags. A missing piece is how organizations can obtain customers' consent efficiently and flexibly. This study recommends that organizations obtain licenses automatically or semi-automatically before collecting personal data via RFID technologies rather than deal with written consents. Such digitalized and standard licenses can be checked automatically to ensure that collection and use of personal data is based on user consent. While individuals can easily control who has licenses and license content, the proposed framework provides an efficient and flexible way to overcome the deficiencies in current privacy protection technologies for RFID systems.

  20. Efficient Helicopter Aerodynamic and Aeroacoustic Predictions on Parallel Computers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wissink, Andrew M.; Lyrintzis, Anastasios S.; Strawn, Roger C.; Oliker, Leonid; Biswas, Rupak

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents parallel implementations of two codes used in a combined CFD/Kirchhoff methodology to predict the aerodynamics and aeroacoustics properties of helicopters. The rotorcraft Navier-Stokes code, TURNS, computes the aerodynamic flowfield near the helicopter blades and the Kirchhoff acoustics code computes the noise in the far field, using the TURNS solution as input. The overall parallel strategy adds MPI message passing calls to the existing serial codes to allow for communication between processors. As a result, the total code modifications required for parallel execution are relatively small. The biggest bottleneck in running the TURNS code in parallel comes from the LU-SGS algorithm that solves the implicit system of equations. We use a new hybrid domain decomposition implementation of LU-SGS to obtain good parallel performance on the SP-2. TURNS demonstrates excellent parallel speedups for quasi-steady and unsteady three-dimensional calculations of a helicopter blade in forward flight. The execution rate attained by the code on 114 processors is six times faster than the same cases run on one processor of the Cray C-90. The parallel Kirchhoff code also shows excellent parallel speedups and fast execution rates. As a performance demonstration, unsteady acoustic pressures are computed at 1886 far-field observer locations for a sample acoustics problem. The calculation requires over two hundred hours of CPU time on one C-90 processor but takes only a few hours on 80 processors of the SP2. The resultant far-field acoustic field is analyzed with state of-the-art audio and video rendering of the propagating acoustic signals.

  1. Predicting Children’s Depressive Symptoms from Community and Individual Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Cole, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.; Ciesla, Jeffrey A.; LaGrange, Beth; Jacquez, Farrah M.; Pineda, Ashley Q.; Truss, Alanna E.; Folmer, Amy S.

    2011-01-01

    Community, demographic, familial, and personal risk factors of childhood depressive symptoms were examined from an ecological theoretical approach using hierarchical linear modeling. Individual-level data were collected from an ethnically diverse (73% African-American) community sample of 197 children and their parents; community-level data were obtained from the U.S. Census regarding rates of community poverty and unemployment in participants’ neighborhoods. Results indicated that high rates of community poverty and unemployment, children’s depressive attributional style, and low levels of self-perceived competence predict children’s depressive symptoms, even after accounting for demographic and familial risk factors, such as parental education and negative parenting behaviors. The effect of negative parenting behaviors on depressive symptoms was partially mediated by personal variables like children’s self-perceived competence. Recommendations for future research, intervention and prevention programs are discussed. PMID:25364062

  2. Olfactory Performance Is Predicted by Individual Sex-Atypicality, but Not Sexual Orientation

    PubMed Central

    Nováková, Lenka; Varella Valentová, Jaroslava; Havlíček, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Many previous studies have reported robust sex differences in olfactory perception. However, both men and women can be expected to vary in the degree to which they exhibit olfactory performance considered typical of their own or the opposite sex. Sex-atypicality is often described in terms of childhood gender nonconformity, which, however, is not a perfect correlate of non-heterosexual orientation. Here we explored intrasexual variability in psychophysical olfactory performance in a sample of 156 individuals (83 non-heterosexual) and found the lowest odor identification scores in heterosexual men. However, when childhood gender nonconformity was entered in the model along with sexual orientation, better odor identification scores were exhibited by gender-nonconforming men, and greater olfactory sensitivity by gender-conforming women, irrespective of their sexual orientation. Thus, sex-atypicality, but not sexual orientation predicts olfactory performance, and we propose that this might not be limited to olfaction, but represent a more general phenomenon. PMID:24244657

  3. Asymmetry in pay-off predicts how familiar individuals respond to one another.

    PubMed

    Granroth-Wilding, Hanna M V; Magurran, Anne E

    2013-06-23

    Familiarity influences individual decision-making in many vertebrate species. Here, we propose that familiarity modulates behaviour to different extents depending on the social context of the interaction. Specifically, the more that one player stands to gain relative to the other, the less important familiarity will be in influencing their responses to one another. We test this prediction using pairs of male guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in three competitive scenarios of increasing asymmetry in outcome to the two players: schooling under potential threat (similar outcomes), competing for a defensible food source (some asymmetry) and competing for a receptive female (strongly asymmetrical outcomes). Males show a graded response as asymmetry increases, with familiarity producing marked behavioural differences under potential threat, minor changes when competing for food, but none at all in competition for mating opportunities. This suggests that mutualistic benefits can arise as a by-product of selfish behaviour, supporting the role of pseudo-reciprocity in the evolution of cooperation. PMID:23576778

  4. Flexible control in processing affective and non-affective material predicts individual differences in trait resilience.

    PubMed

    Genet, Jessica J; Siemer, Matthias

    2011-02-01

    Trait resilience is a stable personality characteristic that involves the self-reported ability to flexibly adapt to emotional events and situations. The present study examined cognitive processes that may explain individual differences in trait resilience. Participants completed self-report measures of trait resilience, cognitive flexibility and working memory capacity tasks, and a novel affective task-switching paradigm that assesses the ability to flexibly switch between processing the affective versus non-affective qualities of affective stimuli (i.e., flexible affective processing). As hypothesised, cognitive flexibility and flexible affective processing were unique predictors of trait resilience. Working memory capacity was not predictive of trait resilience, indicating that trait resilience is tied to specific cognitive processes rather than overall better cognitive functioning. Cognitive flexibility and flexible affective processing were not associated with other trait measures, suggesting that these flexibility processes are unique to trait resilience. This study was among the first to investigate the cognitive abilities underlying trait resilience. PMID:21432680

  5. FKBP5 and Emotional Neglect Interact to Predict Individual Differences in Amygdala Reactivity

    PubMed Central

    White, Michael G.; Bogdan, Ryan; Fisher, Patrick M.; Muñoz, Karen; Williamson, Douglas E.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

    2013-01-01

    Individual variation in physiological responsiveness to stress mediates risk for mental illness and is influenced by both experiential and genetic factors. Common polymorphisms in the human gene for FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5), which is involved in transcriptional regulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, have been shown to interact with childhood abuse and trauma to predict stress-related psychopathology. In the current study, we examined if such gene-environment interaction effects may be related to variability in the threat-related reactivity of the amygdala, which plays a critical role in mediating physiological and behavioral adaptions to stress including modulation of the HPA axis. To this end 139 healthy, Caucasian youth completed a BOLD fMRI probe of amygdala reactivity and self-report assessments of emotional neglect (EN) and other forms of maltreatment. These individuals were genotyped for six FKBP5 polymorphisms (rs7748266, rs1360780, rs9296158, rs3800373, rs9470080, and rs9394309) previously associated with psychopathology and/or HPA axis function. Interactions between each SNP and EN emerged such that risk alleles predicted relatively increased dorsal amygdala reactivity in the context of higher EN, even after correcting for multiple testing. Two different haplotype analyses confirmed this relationship as haplotypes with risk alleles also exhibited increased amygdala reactivity in the context of higher EN. Our results suggest that increased threat-related amygdala reactivity may represent a mechanism linking psychopathology to interactions between common genetic variants affecting HPA axis function and childhood trauma. PMID:22979952

  6. Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-07-01

    We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

  7. Evidence for predictive validity of blood assays to evaluate individual radiosensitivity

    SciTech Connect

    Severin, Erhard . E-mail: severie@uni-muenster.de; Greve, Burkhard; Pascher, Elke; Wedemeyer, Niels; Hacker-Klom, Ursula; Silling, Gerda; Kienast, Joachim; Willich, Normann; Goehde, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: An escalation in standard irradiation dose ensuring improved local tumor control is estimated, but this strategy would require the exclusion of the most sensitive individuals from treatment. Therefore, fast and reliable assays for prediction of the individual radiosensitivity are urgently required. Methods and Materials: Seven parameters in lymphocytes of 40 patients with leukemia were analyzed before, during, and after total body irradiation (TBI) and in vitro X-ray irradiation. These were: cell proliferation, nuclear damage, activation of cytokines, and numbers of total leukocytes of CD34+ hematopoietic blood stem cells and of CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes. Additionally, antioxidative capacity of blood plasma, uric acid, and hemoglobin levels were measured. Blood samples of 67 healthy donors were used as controls. Results: In vivo and in vitro irradiations showed comparable results. A dose-response relationship was found for most parameters. Three parameters were associated with severe acute oral mucositis (Grade 3 or 4 vs. Grade 0 to 2): leukocytes fewer than 6200/{mu}L after 4 Gy TBI, a rate of >19% lymphocytes with reduced DNA and protein content ('necroses') after 4 Gy in vitro irradiation, and a small antioxidative capacity in blood plasma (<0.68 mMol) after 8 Gy TBI. Conclusion: Three simple blood assays were associated with oral mucositis that are posed here hypothetically as an early symptom of enhanced radiosensitivity in leukemic patients: leukocyte count, damaged lymphocyte score, and the antioxidative capacity after exposure.

  8. PLASMA OXYTOCIN LEVELS PREDICT SOCIAL CUE RECOGNITION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH SCHIZOPHRENIA

    PubMed Central

    Strauss, Gregory P.; Keller, William R.; Koenig, James I.; Gold, James M.; Frost, Katherine H.; Buchanan, Robert W.

    2015-01-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  9. Individual differences in social dominance orientation predict support for the use of cognitive ability tests.

    PubMed

    Kim, Anita; Berry, Christopher M

    2015-02-01

    This study investigates the personality processes involved in the debate surrounding the use of cognitive ability tests in college admissions. In Study 1, 108 undergraduates (Mage  = 18.88 years, 60 women, 80 Whites) completed measures of social dominance orientation (SDO), testing self-efficacy, and attitudes regarding the use of cognitive ability tests in college admissions; SAT/ACT scores were collected from the registrar. Sixty-seven undergraduates (Mage  = 19.06 years, 39 women, 49 Whites) completed the same measures in Study 2, along with measures of endorsement of commonly presented arguments about test use. In Study 3, 321 American adults (Mage  = 35.58 years, 180 women, 251 Whites) completed the same measures used in Study 2; half were provided with facts about race and validity issues surrounding cognitive ability tests. Individual differences in SDO significantly predicted support for the use of cognitive ability tests in all samples, after controlling for SAT/ACT scores and test self-efficacy and also among participants who read facts about cognitive ability tests. Moreover, arguments for and against test use mediated this effect. The present study sheds new light on an old debate by demonstrating that individual differences in beliefs about hierarchy play a key role in attitudes toward cognitive ability test use. PMID:24219574

  10. Plasma oxytocin levels predict social cue recognition in individuals with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Gregory P; Keller, William R; Koenig, James I; Gold, James M; Frost, Katherine H; Buchanan, Robert W

    2015-03-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  11. Benchmarking Deep Networks for Predicting Residue-Specific Quality of Individual Protein Models in CASP11

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Tong; Wang, Yiheng; Eickholt, Jesse; Wang, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Quality assessment of a protein model is to predict the absolute or relative quality of a protein model using computational methods before the native structure is available. Single-model methods only need one model as input and can predict the absolute residue-specific quality of an individual model. Here, we have developed four novel single-model methods (Wang_deep_1, Wang_deep_2, Wang_deep_3, and Wang_SVM) based on stacked denoising autoencoders (SdAs) and support vector machines (SVMs). We evaluated these four methods along with six other methods participating in CASP11 at the global and local levels using Pearson’s correlation coefficients and ROC analysis. As for residue-specific quality assessment, our four methods achieved better performance than most of the six other CASP11 methods in distinguishing the reliably modeled residues from the unreliable measured by ROC analysis; and our SdA-based method Wang_deep_1 has achieved the highest accuracy, 0.77, compared to SVM-based methods and our ensemble of an SVM and SdAs. However, we found that Wang_deep_2 and Wang_deep_3, both based on an ensemble of multiple SdAs and an SVM, performed slightly better than Wang_deep_1 in terms of ROC analysis, indicating that integrating an SVM with deep networks works well in terms of certain measurements.

  12. Benchmarking Deep Networks for Predicting Residue-Specific Quality of Individual Protein Models in CASP11

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Tong; Wang, Yiheng; Eickholt, Jesse; Wang, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Quality assessment of a protein model is to predict the absolute or relative quality of a protein model using computational methods before the native structure is available. Single-model methods only need one model as input and can predict the absolute residue-specific quality of an individual model. Here, we have developed four novel single-model methods (Wang_deep_1, Wang_deep_2, Wang_deep_3, and Wang_SVM) based on stacked denoising autoencoders (SdAs) and support vector machines (SVMs). We evaluated these four methods along with six other methods participating in CASP11 at the global and local levels using Pearson’s correlation coefficients and ROC analysis. As for residue-specific quality assessment, our four methods achieved better performance than most of the six other CASP11 methods in distinguishing the reliably modeled residues from the unreliable measured by ROC analysis; and our SdA-based method Wang_deep_1 has achieved the highest accuracy, 0.77, compared to SVM-based methods and our ensemble of an SVM and SdAs. However, we found that Wang_deep_2 and Wang_deep_3, both based on an ensemble of multiple SdAs and an SVM, performed slightly better than Wang_deep_1 in terms of ROC analysis, indicating that integrating an SVM with deep networks works well in terms of certain measurements. PMID:26763289

  13. Network, anatomical, and non-imaging measures for the prediction of ADHD diagnosis in individual subjects.

    PubMed

    Bohland, Jason W; Saperstein, Sara; Pereira, Francisco; Rapin, Jérémy; Grady, Leo

    2012-01-01

    Brain imaging methods have long held promise as diagnostic aids for neuropsychiatric conditions with complex behavioral phenotypes such as Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. This promise has largely been unrealized, at least partly due to the heterogeneity of clinical populations and the small sample size of many studies. A large, multi-center dataset provided by the ADHD-200 Consortium affords new opportunities to test methods for individual diagnosis based on MRI-observable structural brain attributes and functional interactions observable from resting-state fMRI. In this study, we systematically calculated a large set of standard and new quantitative markers from individual subject datasets. These features (>12,000 per subject) consisted of local anatomical attributes such as cortical thickness and structure volumes, and both local and global resting-state network measures. Three methods were used to compute graphs representing interdependencies between activations in different brain areas, and a full set of network features was derived from each. Of these, features derived from the inverse of the time series covariance matrix, under an L1-norm regularization penalty, proved most powerful. Anatomical and network feature sets were used individually, and combined with non-imaging phenotypic features from each subject. Machine learning algorithms were used to rank attributes, and performance was assessed under cross-validation and on a separate test set of 168 subjects for a variety of feature set combinations. While non-imaging features gave highest performance in cross-validation, the addition of imaging features in sufficient numbers led to improved generalization to new data. Stratification by gender also proved to be a fruitful strategy to improve classifier performance. We describe the overall approach used, compare the predictive power of different classes of features, and describe the most impactful features in relation to the current literature

  14. Prediction and quantification of individual differences in susceptibility to simulator sickness in fixed-base simulators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Young H.

    Simulator sickness in a fixed-base simulator is a form of visually-induced motion sickness. Visual-vestibular interaction on spatial orientation and postural control predicts that vection information in the visual stimuli triggers compensatory head sways to stabilize body orientation to perceived visual motion. Simulator sickness might result from perceptual conflicts caused by the visual-vestibular interaction in unusual environments (i.e., fixed-base simulators). Relationship between simulator sickness, vection, and compensatory head sways to perceived vection might help to quantify and predict presence and magnitude of simulator sickness in simulated environments. It was hypothesized that there was significant and positive relationship between sickness, vection, and compensatory head sways. Existence of individual differences was also possible, depending on individual sensitivity to vection. It was also hypothesized that females would experience more intense vection than males because females have wider periphery and shorter vection latencies. Correlations and the multiple linear regression analyses were performed to test the linear relationship between simulator sickness, vection, head sway, gender, and age. There was significant linear relationship between variables. It was concluded that vection and Y-velocity are significant predictors by itself and in interaction forms. Interaction between gender and vection, Y-velocity, and age in the regression function implied that gender difference is significant and gender is also a significant predictor of simulator sickness. Therefore, it was also concluded that there was significant gender difference in susceptibility to simulator sickness between males and females. General linear model also indicates that mean difference in magnitudes of vection, and Y-velocity and difference in gender and age have effects on the magnitude of simulator sickness. Time-course of vection implies that magnitude of vection increases as

  15. Predicting Efficiency of Travel in Young, Visually Impaired Children from Their Other Spatial Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Anita; And Others

    1985-01-01

    To test ways of predicting how efficiently visually impaired children learn travel skills, a criteria checklist of spatial skills was developed for close-body space, local space, and geographical/travel space. Comparison was made between predictors of efficient learning including subjective ratings of teachers, personal qualities and factors of…

  16. High-Throughput Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy for Predicting Quantitative and Qualitative Composition Phenotypes of Individual Maize Kernels

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Near-infrared reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy can be used for fast and reliable prediction of organic compounds in complex biological samples. We used a recently developed NIR spectroscopy instrument to predict starch, protein, oil, and weight of individual maize (Zea mays) seeds. The starch, prote...

  17. Probing photo-carrier collection efficiencies of individual silicon nanowire diodes on a wafer substrate.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, S W; Brönstrup, G; Shalev, G; Srivastava, S K; Bashouti, M Y; Döhler, G H; Christiansen, S H

    2014-07-21

    Vertically aligned silicon nanowire (SiNW) diodes are promising candidates for the integration into various opto-electronic device concepts for e.g. sensing or solar energy conversion. Individual SiNW p-n diodes have intensively been studied, but to date an assessment of their device performance once integrated on a silicon substrate has not been made. We show that using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) equipped with a nano-manipulator and an optical fiber feed-through for tunable (wavelength, power using a tunable laser source) sample illumination, the dark and illuminated current-voltage (I-V) curve of individual SiNW diodes on the substrate wafer can be measured. Surprisingly, the I-V-curve of the serially coupled system composed of SiNW/wafers is accurately described by an equivalent circuit model of a single diode and diode parameters like series and shunting resistivity, diode ideality factor and photocurrent can be retrieved from a fit. We show that the photo-carrier collection efficiency (PCE) of the integrated diode illuminated with variable wavelength and intensity light directly gives insight into the quality of the device design at the nanoscale. We find that the PCE decreases for high light intensities and photocurrent densities, due to the fact that considerable amounts of photo-excited carriers generated within the substrate lead to a decrease in shunting resistivity of the SiNW diode and deteriorate its rectification. The PCE decreases systematically for smaller wavelengths of visible light, showing the possibility of monitoring the effectiveness of the SiNW device surface passivation using the shown measurement technique. The integrated device was pre-characterized using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), TCAD simulations and electron beam induced current (EBIC) measurements to validate the properties of the characterized material at the single SiNW diode level. PMID:24830733

  18. Prediction and design of efficient exciplex emitters for high-efficiency, thermally activated delayed-fluorescence organic light-emitting diodes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao-Ke; Chen, Zhan; Zheng, Cai-Jun; Liu, Chuan-Lin; Lee, Chun-Sing; Li, Fan; Ou, Xue-Mei; Zhang, Xiao-Hong

    2015-04-01

    High-efficiency, thermally activated delayed-fluorescence organic light-emitting diodes based on exciplex emitters are demonstrated. The best device, based on a TAPC:DPTPCz emitter, shows a high external quantum efficiency of 15.4%. Strategies for predicting and designing efficient exciplex emitters are also provided. This approach allow prediction and design of efficient exciplex emitters for achieving high-efficiency organic light-emitting diodes, for future use in displays and lighting applications. PMID:25712786

  19. The Carbon_h-Factor: Predicting Individuals' Research Impact at Early Stages of Their Career

    PubMed Central

    Carbon, Claus-Christian

    2011-01-01

    Assessing an individual's research impact on the basis of a transparent algorithm is an important task for evaluation and comparison purposes. Besides simple but also inaccurate indices such as counting the mere number of publications or the accumulation of overall citations, and highly complex but also overwhelming full-range publication lists in their raw format, Hirsch (2005) introduced a single figure cleverly combining different approaches. The so-called h-index has undoubtedly become the standard in scientometrics of individuals' research impact (note: in the present paper I will always use the term “research impact” to describe the research performance as the logic of the paper is based on the h-index, which quantifies the specific “impact” of, e.g., researchers, but also because the genuine meaning of impact refers to quality as well). As the h-index reflects the number h of papers a researcher has published with at least h citations, the index is inherently positively biased towards senior level researchers. This might sometimes be problematic when predictive tools are needed for assessing young scientists' potential, especially when recruiting early career positions or equipping young scientists' labs. To be compatible with the standard h-index, the proposed index integrates the scientist's research age (Carbon_h-factor) into the h-index, thus reporting the average gain of h-index per year. Comprehensive calculations of the Carbon_h-factor were made for a broad variety of four research-disciplines (economics, neuroscience, physics and psychology) and for researchers performing on three high levels of research impact (substantial, outstanding and epochal) with ten researchers per category. For all research areas and output levels we obtained linear developments of the h-index demonstrating the validity of predicting one's later impact in terms of research impact already at an early stage of their career with the Carbon_h-factor being approx. 0.4, 0

  20. Neural activity tied to reading predicts individual differences in extended-text comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Mossbridge, Julia A.; Grabowecky, Marcia; Paller, Ken A.; Suzuki, Satoru

    2013-01-01

    Reading comprehension depends on neural processes supporting the access, understanding, and storage of words over time. Examinations of the neural activity correlated with reading have contributed to our understanding of reading comprehension, especially for the comprehension of sentences and short passages. However, the neural activity associated with comprehending an extended text is not well-understood. Here we describe a current-source-density (CSD) index that predicts individual differences in the comprehension of an extended text. The index is the difference in CSD-transformed event-related potentials (ERPs) to a target word between two conditions: a comprehension condition with words from a story presented in their original order, and a scrambled condition with the same words presented in a randomized order. In both conditions participants responded to the target word, and in the comprehension condition they also tried to follow the story in preparation for a comprehension test. We reasoned that the spatiotemporal pattern of difference-CSDs would reflect comprehension-related processes beyond word-level processing. We used a pattern-classification method to identify the component of the difference-CSDs that accurately (88%) discriminated good from poor comprehenders. The critical CSD index was focused at a frontal-midline scalp site, occurred 400–500 ms after target-word onset, and was strongly correlated with comprehension performance. Behavioral data indicated that group differences in effort or motor preparation could not explain these results. Further, our CSD index appears to be distinct from the well-known P300 and N400 components, and CSD transformation seems to be crucial for distinguishing good from poor comprehenders using our experimental paradigm. Once our CSD index is fully characterized, this neural signature of individual differences in extended-text comprehension may aid the diagnosis and remediation of reading comprehension deficits. PMID

  1. Variations in EEG discharges predict ADHD severity within individual Smith-Lemli-Opitz patients

    PubMed Central

    Schreiber, John M.; Lanham, Diane C.; Trescher, William H.; Sparks, Susan E.; Wassif, Christopher A.; Caffo, Brian S.; Porter, Forbes D.; Tierney, Elaine; Gropman, Andrea L.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: We sought to examine the prevalence of EEG abnormalities in Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome (SLOS) as well as the relationship between interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) and within-subject variations in attentional symptom severity. Methods: In the context of a clinical trial for SLOS, we performed cross-sectional and repeated-measure observational studies of the relationship between EEG findings and cognitive/behavioral factors on 23 children (aged 4–17 years). EEGs were reviewed for clinical abnormalities, including IEDs, by readers blinded to participants' behavioral symptoms. Between-group differences in baseline characteristics of participants with and without IEDs were analyzed. Within-subject analyses examined the association between the presence of IEDs and changes in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms. Results: Of 85 EEGs, 43 (51%) were abnormal, predominantly because of IEDs. Only one subject had documented clinical seizures. IEDs clustered in 13 subjects (57%), whereas 9 subjects (39%) had EEGs consistently free of IEDs. While there were no significant group differences in sex, age, intellectual disability, language level, or baseline ADHD symptoms, autistic symptoms tended to be more prevalent in the “IED” group (according to Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule–2 criteria). Within individuals, the presence of IEDs on a particular EEG predicted, on average, a 27% increase in ADHD symptom severity. Conclusions: Epileptiform discharges are common in SLOS, despite a relatively low prevalence of epilepsy. Fluctuations in the presence of epileptiform discharges within individual children with a developmental disability syndrome may be associated with fluctuations in ADHD symptomatology, even in the absence of clinical seizures. PMID:24920862

  2. Neural activity tied to reading predicts individual differences in extended-text comprehension.

    PubMed

    Mossbridge, Julia A; Grabowecky, Marcia; Paller, Ken A; Suzuki, Satoru

    2013-01-01

    Reading comprehension depends on neural processes supporting the access, understanding, and storage of words over time. Examinations of the neural activity correlated with reading have contributed to our understanding of reading comprehension, especially for the comprehension of sentences and short passages. However, the neural activity associated with comprehending an extended text is not well-understood. Here we describe a current-source-density (CSD) index that predicts individual differences in the comprehension of an extended text. The index is the difference in CSD-transformed event-related potentials (ERPs) to a target word between two conditions: a comprehension condition with words from a story presented in their original order, and a scrambled condition with the same words presented in a randomized order. In both conditions participants responded to the target word, and in the comprehension condition they also tried to follow the story in preparation for a comprehension test. We reasoned that the spatiotemporal pattern of difference-CSDs would reflect comprehension-related processes beyond word-level processing. We used a pattern-classification method to identify the component of the difference-CSDs that accurately (88%) discriminated good from poor comprehenders. The critical CSD index was focused at a frontal-midline scalp site, occurred 400-500 ms after target-word onset, and was strongly correlated with comprehension performance. Behavioral data indicated that group differences in effort or motor preparation could not explain these results. Further, our CSD index appears to be distinct from the well-known P300 and N400 components, and CSD transformation seems to be crucial for distinguishing good from poor comprehenders using our experimental paradigm. Once our CSD index is fully characterized, this neural signature of individual differences in extended-text comprehension may aid the diagnosis and remediation of reading comprehension deficits. PMID

  3. The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

    PubMed Central

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Montazeri, Hesam; Schuhmacher, Heike; Knupfer, Patrick; von Wyl, Viktor; Furrer, Hansjakob; Battegay, Manuel; Hirschel, Bernard; Cavassini, Matthias; Vernazza, Pietro; Bernasconi, Enos; Yerly, Sabine; Böni, Jürg; Klimkait, Thomas; Cellerai, Cristina; Günthard, Huldrych F.

    2013-01-01

    The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests. PMID:24009493

  4. A model for predicting individuals' absolute risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma: Moving toward tailored screening and prevention.

    PubMed

    Xie, Shao-Hua; Lagergren, Jesper

    2016-06-15

    Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is characterized by rapidly increasing incidence and poor prognosis, stressing the need for preventive and early detection strategies. We used data from a nationwide population-based case-control study, which included 189 incident cases of EAC and 820 age- and sex-matched control participants, from 1995 through 1997 in Sweden. We developed risk prediction models based on unconditional logistic regression. Candidate predictors included established and readily identifiable risk factors for EAC. The performance of model was assessed by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with cross-validation. The final model could explain 94% of all case patients with EAC (94% population attributable risk) and included terms for gastro-esophageal reflux symptoms or use of antireflux medication, body mass index (BMI), tobacco smoking, duration of living with a partner, previous diagnoses of esophagitis and diaphragmatic hernia and previous surgery for esophagitis, diaphragmatic hernia or severe reflux or gastric or duodenal ulcer. The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.87) and slightly lower after cross-validation. A simpler model, based only on reflux symptoms or use of antireflux medication, BMI and tobacco smoking could explain 91% of the case patients with EAC and had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.85). These EAC prediction models showed good discriminative accuracy, but need to be validated in other populations. These models have the potential for future use in identifying individuals with high absolute risk of EAC in the population, who may be considered for endoscopic screening and targeted prevention. PMID:26756848

  5. [Blood DNA Radiosensitivity May Be Predictive Marker for Efficacy of Radiation Therapy in Glioma Tumorbearing Individuals].

    PubMed

    Ivanov, S D; Korytova, L I; Yamshanov, V A; Zhabina, R M; Semenov, A L; Krasnikova, V G

    2015-01-01

    Animal and clinical studies were conducted to evaluate the association between the blood DNA radiosensitivity, assessed by determining the original S-index ex vivo, and the response of gliomas to irradiation in vivo. Possible modifications of the latter after administration of iron-containing water (ICW) in rats were also explored. The study was performed on the rats with subcutaneously implanted experimental glioma-35. The tumors were locally X-irradiated with a single 15 Gy dose as a radiation therapy (RT). ICW (60-63 mg · Fe 2+/l) was administered as a drinking water for 3 days before treatment. The animals underwent blood sampling for analysis of the DNA concentration and leukocyte count. The DNA index was estimated 24 h after RT. The S-index was evaluated within 4 h before RT. The mean initial S-index in the blood samples of glioma-bearing rats was 0.73 ± 0.05. Addition of ICW ex vivo resulted in a significantly increased S-index in a half of the samples. In general, the irradiated rats, which had been given pretreatment with ICW and demonstrated an ex vivo increase of the S-index to > 1.0, showed the most marked inhibition of tumor progression and the smallest tumor volume 25 days after irradiation. They also exhibited the lowest rate of growth and the longest survival. Determination of the biochemical S-index and evaluation of its changes ex vivo caused by ICW may be predictive of the response of experimental glioma to irradiation with radiomodification. The S-index may serve as a predictive indicator in clinic of the efficient evaluation of RT in patients with glioma. PMID:26863781

  6. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry; Schifer, Nicholas; Briggs, Maxwell

    2011-01-01

    Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

  7. Neuronal synchrony reveals working memory networks and predicts individual memory capacity

    PubMed Central

    Palva, J. Matias; Monto, Simo; Kulashekhar, Shrikanth; Palva, Satu

    2010-01-01

    Visual working memory (VWM) is used to maintain sensory information for cognitive operations, and its deficits are associated with several neuropsychological disorders. VWM is based on sustained neuronal activity in a complex cortical network of frontal, parietal, occipital, and temporal areas. The neuronal mechanisms that coordinate this distributed processing to sustain coherent mental images and the mechanisms that set the behavioral capacity limit have remained unknown. We mapped the anatomical and dynamic structures of network synchrony supporting VWM by using a neuro informatics approach and combined magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography. Interareal phase synchrony was sustained and stable during the VWM retention period among frontoparietal and visual areas in α- (10–13 Hz), β- (18–24 Hz), and γ- (30–40 Hz) frequency bands. Furthermore, synchrony was strengthened with increasing memory load among the frontoparietal regions known to underlie executive and attentional functions during memory maintenance. On the other hand, the subjects’ individual behavioral VWM capacity was predicted by synchrony in a network in which the intraparietal sulcus was the most central hub. These data suggest that interareal phase synchrony in the α-, β-, and γ-frequency bands among frontoparietal and visual regions could be a systems level mechanism for coordinating and regulating the maintenance of neuronal object representations in VWM. PMID:20368447

  8. Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Meyer, J M

    2001-12-01

    Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events. PMID:11763003

  9. Individual differences in attributional style but not in interoceptive sensitivity, predict subjective estimates of action intention

    PubMed Central

    Penton, Tegan; Thierry, Guillaume L.; Davis, Nick J.

    2014-01-01

    The debate on the existence of free will is on-going. Seminal findings by Libet et al. (1983) demonstrate that subjective awareness of a voluntary urge to act (the W-judgment) occurs before action execution. Libet’s paradigm requires participants to perform voluntary actions while watching a clock hand rotate. On response trials, participants make a retrospective judgment related to awareness of their urge to act. This research investigates the relationship between individual differences in performance on the Libet task and self-awareness. We examined the relationship between W-judgment, attributional style (AS; a measure of perceived control) and interoceptive sensitivity (IS; awareness of stimuli originating from one’s body; e.g., heartbeats). Thirty participants completed the AS questionnaire (ASQ), a heartbeat estimation task (IS), and the Libet paradigm. The ASQ score significantly predicted performance on the Libet task, while IS did not – more negative ASQ scores indicated larger latency between W-judgment and action execution. A significant correlation was also observed between ASQ score and IS. This is the first research to report a relationship between W-judgment and AS and should inform the future use of electroencephalography (EEG) to investigate the relationship between AS, W-judgment and RP onset. Our findings raise questions surrounding the importance of one’s perceived control in determining the point of conscious intention to act. Furthermore, we demonstrate possible negative implications associated with a longer period between conscious awareness and action execution. PMID:25191254

  10. Within-Person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: a Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Kouros, Chrystyna D; Morris, Matthew C; Garber, Judy

    2016-04-01

    The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N = 240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M = 11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children's Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

  11. Energy-Efficient Integration of Continuous Context Sensing and Prediction into Smartwatches.

    PubMed

    Rawassizadeh, Reza; Tomitsch, Martin; Nourizadeh, Manouchehr; Momeni, Elaheh; Peery, Aaron; Ulanova, Liudmila; Pazzani, Michael

    2015-01-01

    As the availability and use of wearables increases, they are becoming a promising platform for context sensing and context analysis. Smartwatches are a particularly interesting platform for this purpose, as they offer salient advantages, such as their proximity to the human body. However, they also have limitations associated with their small form factor, such as processing power and battery life, which makes it difficult to simply transfer smartphone-based context sensing and prediction models to smartwatches. In this paper, we introduce an energy-efficient, generic, integrated framework for continuous context sensing and prediction on smartwatches. Our work extends previous approaches for context sensing and prediction on wrist-mounted wearables that perform predictive analytics outside the device. We offer a generic sensing module and a novel energy-efficient, on-device prediction module that is based on a semantic abstraction approach to convert sensor data into meaningful information objects, similar to human perception of a behavior. Through six evaluations, we analyze the energy efficiency of our framework modules, identify the optimal file structure for data access and demonstrate an increase in accuracy of prediction through our semantic abstraction method. The proposed framework is hardware independent and can serve as a reference model for implementing context sensing and prediction on small wearable devices beyond smartwatches, such as body-mounted cameras. PMID:26370997

  12. Energy-Efficient Integration of Continuous Context Sensing and Prediction into Smartwatches

    PubMed Central

    Rawassizadeh, Reza; Tomitsch, Martin; Nourizadeh, Manouchehr; Momeni, Elaheh; Peery, Aaron; Ulanova, Liudmila; Pazzani, Michael

    2015-01-01

    As the availability and use of wearables increases, they are becoming a promising platform for context sensing and context analysis. Smartwatches are a particularly interesting platform for this purpose, as they offer salient advantages, such as their proximity to the human body. However, they also have limitations associated with their small form factor, such as processing power and battery life, which makes it difficult to simply transfer smartphone-based context sensing and prediction models to smartwatches. In this paper, we introduce an energy-efficient, generic, integrated framework for continuous context sensing and prediction on smartwatches. Our work extends previous approaches for context sensing and prediction on wrist-mounted wearables that perform predictive analytics outside the device. We offer a generic sensing module and a novel energy-efficient, on-device prediction module that is based on a semantic abstraction approach to convert sensor data into meaningful information objects, similar to human perception of a behavior. Through six evaluations, we analyze the energy efficiency of our framework modules, identify the optimal file structure for data access and demonstrate an increase in accuracy of prediction through our semantic abstraction method. The proposed framework is hardware independent and can serve as a reference model for implementing context sensing and prediction on small wearable devices beyond smartwatches, such as body-mounted cameras. PMID:26370997

  13. Relationship among performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics, and their ability to predict economic value in the feedlot.

    PubMed

    Retallick, K M; Faulkner, D B; Rodriguez-Zas, S L; Nkrumah, J D; Shike, D W

    2013-12-01

    A 4-yr study was conducted using 736 steers of known Angus, Simmental, or Simmental × Angus genetics to determine performance, carcass, and feed efficiency factors that explained variation in economic performance. Steers were pen fed and individual DMI was recorded using a GrowSafe automated feeding system (GrowSafe Systems Ltd., Airdrie, Alberta, Canada). Steers consumed a similar diet and received similar management each year. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine current economic value of feed efficiency and 2) identify performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics that predict: carcass value, profit, cost of gain, and feed costs. Economic data used were from 2011 values. Feed efficiency values investigated were: feed conversion ratio (FCR; feed to gain), residual feed intake (RFI), residual BW gain (RG), and residual intake and BW gain (RIG). Dependent variables were carcass value ($/steer), profit ($/steer), feed costs ($/steer • d(-1)), and cost of gain ($/kg). Independent variables were year, DMI, ADG, HCW, LM area, marbling, yield grade, dam breed, and sire breed. A 10% improvement in RG (P < 0.05) yielded the lowest cost of gain at $0.09/kg and highest carcass value at $17.92/steer. Carcass value increased (P < 0.05) as feed efficiency improved for FCR, RG, and RIG. Profit increased with a 10% improvement in feed efficiency (P < 0.05) with FCR at $34.65/steer, RG at $31.21/steer, RIG at $21.66/steer, and RFI at $11.47/steer. The carcass value prediction model explained 96% of the variation among carcasses and included HCW, marbling score, and yield grade. Average daily gain, marbling score, yield grade, DMI, HCW, and year born constituted 81% of the variation for prediction of profit. Eighty-five percent of the variation in cost of gain was explained by ADG, DMI, HCW, and year. Prediction equations were developed that excluded ADG and DMI, and included feed efficiency values. Using these equations, cost of gain was explained

  14. Accuracy of genomic predictions for feed efficiency traits of beef cattle using 50K and imputed HD genotypes.

    PubMed

    Lu, D; Akanno, E C; Crowley, J J; Schenkel, F; Li, H; De Pauw, M; Moore, S S; Wang, Z; Li, C; Stothard, P; Plastow, G; Miller, S P; Basarab, J A

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of genomic predictions can be used to assess the utility of dense marker genotypes for genetic improvement of beef efficiency traits. This study was designed to test the impact of genomic distance between training and validation populations, training population size, statistical methods, and density of genetic markers on prediction accuracy for feed efficiency traits in multibreed and crossbred beef cattle. A total of 6,794 beef cattle data collated from various projects and research herds across Canada were used. Illumina BovineSNP50 (50K) and imputed Axiom Genome-Wide BOS 1 Array (HD) genotypes were available for all animals. The traits studied were DMI, ADG, and residual feed intake (RFI). Four validation groups of 150 animals each, including Angus (AN), Charolais (CH), Angus-Hereford crosses (ANHH), and a Charolais-based composite (TX) were created by considering the genomic distance between pairs of individuals in the validation groups. Each validation group had 7 corresponding training groups of increasing sizes ( = 1,000, 1,999, 2,999, 3,999, 4,999, 5,998, and 6,644), which also represent increasing average genomic distance between pairs of individuals in the training and validations groups. Prediction of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) was performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and Bayesian method C (BayesC). The accuracy of genomic predictions was defined as the Pearson's correlation between adjusted phenotype and GEBV (), unless otherwise stated. Using 50K genotypes, the highest average achieved in purebreds (AN, CH) was 0.41 for DMI, 0.34 for ADG, and 0.35 for RFI, whereas in crossbreds (ANHH, TX) it was 0.38 for DMI, 0.21 for ADG, and 0.25 for RFI. Similarly, when imputed HD genotypes were applied in purebreds (AN, CH), the highest average was 0.14 for DMI, 0.15 for ADG, and 0.14 for RFI, whereas in crossbreds (ANHH, TX) it was 0.38 for DMI, 0.22 for ADG, and 0.24 for RFI. The of GBLUP predictions were

  15. Resolving Anomalies in Predicting Electrokinetic Energy Conversion Efficiencies of Nanofluidic Devices

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Sagardip; Dhar, Jayabrata; Chakraborty, Suman

    2015-01-01

    We devise a new approach for capturing complex interfacial interactions over reduced length scales, towards predicting electrokinetic energy conversion efficiencies of nanofluidic devices. By embedding several aspects of intermolecular interactions in continuum based formalism, we show that our simple theory becomes capable of representing complex interconnections between electro-mechanics and hydrodynamics over reduced length scales. The predictions from our model are supported by reported experimental data, and are in excellent quantitative agreement with molecular dynamics simulations. The present model, thus, may be employed to rationalize the discrepancies between low energy conversion efficiencies of nanofluidic channels that have been realized from experiments, and the impractically high energy conversion efficiencies that have been routinely predicted by the existing theories. PMID:26437925

  16. Evaluation of the efficiency of artificial neural networks for genetic value prediction.

    PubMed

    Silva, G N; Tomaz, R S; Sant'Anna, I C; Carneiro, V Q; Cruz, C D; Nascimento, M

    2016-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have shown great potential when applied to breeding programs. In this study, we propose the use of artificial neural networks as a viable alternative to conventional prediction methods. We conduct a thorough evaluation of the efficiency of these networks with respect to the prediction of breeding values. Therefore, we considered eight simulated scenarios, and for the purpose of genetic value prediction, seven statistical parameters in addition to the phenotypic mean in a network designed as a multilayer perceptron. After an evaluation of different network configurations, the results demonstrated the superiority of neural networks compared to estimation procedures based on linear models, and indicated high predictive accuracy and network efficiency. PMID:27051007

  17. The potential of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy of milk samples to predict energy intake and efficiency in dairy cows.

    PubMed

    McParland, S; Berry, D P

    2016-05-01

    Knowledge of animal-level and herd-level energy intake, energy balance, and feed efficiency affect day-to-day herd management strategies; information on these traits at an individual animal level is also useful in animal breeding programs. A paucity of data (especially at the individual cow level), of feed intake in particular, hinders the inclusion of such attributes in herd management decision-support tools and breeding programs. Dairy producers have access to an individual cow milk sample at least once daily during lactation, and consequently any low-cost phenotyping strategy should consider exploiting measureable properties in this biological sample, reflecting the physiological status and performance of the cow. Infrared spectroscopy is the study of the interaction of an electromagnetic wave with matter and it is used globally to predict milk quality parameters on routinely acquired individual cow milk samples and bulk tank samples. Thus, exploiting infrared spectroscopy in next-generation phenotyping will ensure potentially rapid application globally with a negligible additional implementation cost as the infrastructure already exists. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) analysis is already used to predict milk fat and protein concentrations, the ratio of which has been proposed as an indicator of energy balance. Milk FTIRS is also able to predict the concentration of various fatty acids in milk, the composition of which is known to change when body tissue is mobilized; that is, when the cow is in negative energy balance. Energy balance is mathematically very similar to residual energy intake (REI), a suggested measure of feed efficiency. Therefore, the prediction of energy intake, energy balance, and feed efficiency (i.e., REI) from milk FTIRS seems logical. In fact, the accuracy of predicting (i.e., correlation between predicted and actual values; root mean square error in parentheses) energy intake, energy balance, and REI from milk FTIRS in

  18. INTER-INDIVIDUAL VARIATION IN VERTEBRAL KINEMATICS AFFECTS PREDICTIONS OF NECK MUSCULOSKELETAL MODELS

    PubMed Central

    Nevins, Derek D.; Zheng, Liying; Vasavada, Anita N.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental studies have found significant variation in cervical intervertebral kinematics (IVK) among healthy subjects, but the effect of this variation on biomechanical properties, such as neck strength, has not been explored. The goal of this study was to quantify variation in model predictions of extension strength, flexion strength and gravitational demand (the ratio of gravitational load from the weight of the head to neck muscle extension strength), due to inter-subject variation in IVK. IVK were measured from sagittal radiographs of twenty-four subjects (14F, 10M) in five postures: maximal extension, mid-extension, neutral, mid-flexion, and maximal flexion. IVK were defined by the position (anterior-posterior and superior-inferior) of each cervical vertebra with respect to T1 and its angle with respect to horizontal, and fit with a cubic polynomial over the range of motion. The IVK of each subject were scaled and incorporated into musculoskeletal models to create models that were identical in muscle force- and moment-generating properties but had subject-specific kinematics. The effect of inter-subject variation in IVK was quantified using the coefficient of variation (COV), the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. COV of extension strength ranged from 8 – 15% over the range of motion, but COV of flexion strength were 20 – 80%. Moreover, the COV of gravitational demand was 80 – 90%, because the gravitational demand is affected by head position as well as neck strength. These results indicate that including inter-individual variation in models is important for evaluating neck musculoskeletal biomechanical properties. PMID:25234351

  19. Studying Individual Differences in Predictability with Gamma Regression and Nonlinear Multilevel Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Culpepper, Steven Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Statistical prediction remains an important tool for decisions in a variety of disciplines. An equally important issue is identifying factors that contribute to more or less accurate predictions. The time series literature includes well developed methods for studying predictability and volatility over time. This article develops…

  20. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  1. Computational Efficient Upscaling Methodology for Predicting Thermal Conductivity of Nuclear Waste forms

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Dongsheng; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2011-09-28

    This study evaluated different upscaling methods to predict thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form, a heterogeneous material system. The efficiency and accuracy of these methods were compared. Thermal conductivity in loaded nuclear waste form is an important property specific to scientific researchers, in waste form Integrated performance and safety code (IPSC). The effective thermal conductivity obtained from microstructure information and local thermal conductivity of different components is critical in predicting the life and performance of waste form during storage. How the heat generated during storage is directly related to thermal conductivity, which in turn determining the mechanical deformation behavior, corrosion resistance and aging performance. Several methods, including the Taylor model, Sachs model, self-consistent model, and statistical upscaling models were developed and implemented. Due to the absence of experimental data, prediction results from finite element method (FEM) were used as reference to determine the accuracy of different upscaling models. Micrographs from different loading of nuclear waste were used in the prediction of thermal conductivity. Prediction results demonstrated that in term of efficiency, boundary models (Taylor and Sachs model) are better than self consistent model, statistical upscaling method and FEM. Balancing the computation resource and accuracy, statistical upscaling is a computational efficient method in predicting effective thermal conductivity for nuclear waste form.

  2. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  3. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  4. Adaptive inter color residual prediction for efficient red-green-blue intra coding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Jinwoo; Choe, Yoonsik; Kim, Yong-Goo

    2011-07-01

    Intra coding of an RGB video is important to many high fidelity multimedia applications because video acquisition is mostly done in RGB space, and the coding of decorrelated color video loses its virtue in high quality ranges. In order to improve the compression performance of an RGB video, this paper proposes an inter color prediction using adaptive weights. For making full use of spatial, as well as inter color correlation of an RGB video, the proposed scheme is based on a residual prediction approach, and thus the incorporated prediction is performed on the transformed frequency components of spatially predicted residual data of each color plane. With the aid of efficient prediction employing frequency domain inter color residual correlation, the proposed scheme achieves up to 24.3% of bitrate reduction, compared to the common mode of H.264/AVC high 4:4:4 intra profile.

  5. Individual differences in children's innovative problem-solving are not predicted by divergent thinking or executive functions.

    PubMed

    Beck, Sarah R; Williams, Clare; Cutting, Nicola; Apperly, Ian A; Chappell, Jackie

    2016-03-19

    Recent studies of children's tool innovation have revealed that there is variation in children's success in middle-childhood. In two individual differences studies, we sought to identify personal characteristics that might predict success on an innovation task. In Study 1, we found that although measures of divergent thinking were related to each other they did not predict innovation success. In Study 2, we measured executive functioning including: inhibition, working memory, attentional flexibility and ill-structured problem-solving. None of these measures predicted innovation, but, innovation was predicted by children's performance on a receptive vocabulary scale that may function as a proxy for general intelligence. We did not find evidence that children's innovation was predicted by specific personal characteristics. PMID:26926280

  6. Individual differences in children's innovative problem-solving are not predicted by divergent thinking or executive functions

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies of children's tool innovation have revealed that there is variation in children's success in middle-childhood. In two individual differences studies, we sought to identify personal characteristics that might predict success on an innovation task. In Study 1, we found that although measures of divergent thinking were related to each other they did not predict innovation success. In Study 2, we measured executive functioning including: inhibition, working memory, attentional flexibility and ill-structured problem-solving. None of these measures predicted innovation, but, innovation was predicted by children's performance on a receptive vocabulary scale that may function as a proxy for general intelligence. We did not find evidence that children's innovation was predicted by specific personal characteristics. PMID:26926280

  7. How Does Early Developmental Assessment Predict Academic and Attentional-Behavioural Skills at Group and Individual Levels?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valtonen, Riitta; Ahonen, Timo; Tolvanen, Asko; Lyytinen, Paula

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of the study was to explore the ability of a brief developmental assessment to predict teacher-rated learning and attentional and behavioural skills in the first grade of school at both the group and individual levels. A sample of 394 children (181 males, 213 females) aged 4 years were followed to the age of 6 years, and 283 of the…

  8. Predicting Children's Interactions with Unfamiliar Peers: Contributions of Parent-Child Interaction Style and Child Individual Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carrillo, Sonia; And Others

    This study examined children's play interaction styles with unfamiliar peers; used mother-child and father-child dyadic qualities independently to predict children's social behavior; determined the relationship between children's individual behaviors and peer dyadic characteristics; and compared mother-child and father-child interactions on both…

  9. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C.

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals’ nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons ‘on the move’, as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  10. The predictive value of arterial stiffness on major adverse cardiovascular events in individuals with mildly impaired renal function

    PubMed Central

    Han, Jie; Wang, Xiaona; Ye, Ping; Cao, Ruihua; Yang, Xu; Xiao, Wenkai; Zhang, Yun; Bai, Yongyi; Wu, Hongmei

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Despite growing evidence that arterial stiffness has important predictive value for cardiovascular disease in patients with advanced stages of chronic kidney disease, the predictive significance of arterial stiffness in individuals with mildly impaired renal function has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of arterial stiffness on cardiovascular disease in this specific population. Materials and methods We analyzed measurements of arterial stiffness (carotid–femoral pulse-wave velocity [cf-PWV]) and the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in 1,499 subjects from a 4.8-year longitudinal study. Results A multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis showed that in individuals with normal renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), the baseline cf-PWV was not associated with occurrence of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.398, 95% confidence interval 0.748–2.613; P=0.293). In individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2), a higher baseline cf-PWV level was associated with a higher risk of MACEs (hazard ratio 2.334, 95% confidence interval 1.082–5.036; P=0.031). Conclusion Arterial stiffness is a moderate and independent predictive factor for MACEs in individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2). PMID:27621605

  11. What Predicts the Effectiveness of Foreign-Language Pronunciation Instruction? Investigating the Role of Perception and Other Individual Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kissling, Elizabeth M.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated second language (L2) learners' perception of L2 sounds as an individual difference that predicted their improvement in pronunciation after receiving instruction. Learners were given explicit pronunciation instruction in a series of modules added to their Spanish as a foreign language curriculum and were then tested on…

  12. Developmental Trajectories in Toddlers' Self-Restraint Predict Individual Differences in Executive Functions 14 Years Later: A Behavioral Genetic Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Naomi P.; Miyake, Akira; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Hewitt, John K.

    2011-01-01

    We examined whether self-restraint in early childhood predicted individual differences in 3 executive functions (EFs; inhibiting prepotent responses, updating working memory, and shifting task sets) in late adolescence in a sample of approximately 950 twins. At ages 14, 20, 24, and 36 months, the children were shown an attractive toy and told not…

  13. Prediction of individual combined benefit and harm for patients with atrial fibrillation considering warfarin therapy: a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guowei; Holbrook, Anne; Delate, Thomas; Witt, Daniel M; Levine, Mitchell AH; Thabane, Lehana

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Clinical prediction rules have been validated and widely used in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) to predict stroke and major bleeding. However, these prediction rules were not developed in the same population, and do not provide the key information that patients and prescribers need at the time anticoagulants are being considered—what is the individual patient-specific risk of both benefit (decreased stroke) and harm (increased major bleeding). In this study, our primary objective is to develop and validate a prediction model for patients’ individual combined benefit and harm outcomes (stroke, major bleeding and neither event) with and without warfarin therapy. Our secondary outcome is all-cause mortality. Methods and analysis We will use data from the Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) anticoagulation management databases and electronic medical records. Patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis during an ambulatory KPCO medical office visit, emergency department visit, or inpatient stay between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2012 with no AF diagnosis in the previous 180 days will be included. Patients’ demographic characteristics, laboratory data, comorbidities, warfarin medication data and concurrent use of medication will be used to construct the prediction model. For primary outcomes (stroke with no major bleeding, and major bleeding with no stroke), we will perform polytomous logistic regression to develop a prediction model for patients’ individual combined benefit and harm outcomes, taking neither event group as the reference group. As regards death, we will use Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to build a prediction model for all-cause mortality. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the KPCO Institutional Review Board and the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board. Results from this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal electronically and in print. The prediction models may aid

  14. Resting EEG in Alpha and Beta Bands Predicts Individual Differences in Attentional Blink Magnitude

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacLean, Mary H.; Arnell, Karen M.; Cote, Kimberly A.

    2012-01-01

    Accuracy for a second target (T2) is reduced when it is presented within 500 ms of a first target (T1) in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP)--an attentional blink (AB). There are reliable individual differences in the magnitude of the AB. Recent evidence has shown that the attentional approach that an individual typically adopts during a…

  15. Curious Eyes: Individual Differences in Personality Predict Eye Movement Behavior in Scene-Viewing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Risko, Evan F.; Anderson, Nicola C.; Lanthier, Sophie; Kingstone, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Visual exploration is driven by two main factors--the stimuli in our environment, and our own individual interests and intentions. Research investigating these two aspects of attentional guidance has focused almost exclusively on factors common across individuals. The present study took a different tack, and examined the role played by individual…

  16. Peer assessments of normative and individual teacher–student support predict social acceptance and engagement among low-achieving children

    PubMed Central

    Hughes, Jan N.; Zhang, Duan; Hill, Crystal R.

    2010-01-01

    This study used hierarchical linear modeling to predict first grade students' peer acceptance, classroom engagement, and sense of school belonging from measures of normative classroom teacher–student support and individual teacher–student support. Participants were 509 (54.4% male) ethnically diverse, first grade children attending one of three Texas School districts (1 urban, 2 small city) who scored below their school district median on a measure of literacy administered at the beginning of first grade. Peer nominations from 5147 classmates were used to assess both normative and individual levels of teacher support. Normative classroom teacher–student support predicted children's peer acceptance and classroom engagement, above the effects of child gender, ethnic minority status, and individual teacher–student support. Results are discussed in terms of implications for teacher preparation and professional development. PMID:20411044

  17. Distribution patterns predict individual specialization in the diet of dolphin gulls.

    PubMed

    Masello, Juan F; Wikelski, Martin; Voigt, Christian C; Quillfeldt, Petra

    2013-01-01

    Many animals show some degree of individual specialization in foraging strategies and diet. This has profound ecological and evolutionary implications. For example, populations containing diverse individual foraging strategies will respond in different ways to changes in the environment, thus affecting the capacity of the populations to adapt to environmental changes and to diversify. However, patterns of individual specialization have been examined in few species. Likewise it is usually unknown whether specialization is maintained over time, because examining the temporal scale at which specialization occurs can prove difficult in the field. In the present study, we analyzed individual specialization in foraging in Dolphin Gulls Leucophaeus scoresbii, a scavenger endemic to the southernmost coasts of South America. We used GPS position logging and stable isotope analyses (SIA) to investigate individual specialization in feeding strategies and their persistence over time. The analysis of GPS data indicated two major foraging strategies in Dolphin Gulls from New I. (Falkland Is./Islas Malvinas). Tagged individuals repeatedly attended either a site with mussel beds or seabird and seal colonies during 5 to 7 days of tracking. Females foraging at mussel beds were heavier than those foraging at seabird colonies. Nitrogen isotope ratios (δ(15)N) of Dolphin Gull blood cells clustered in two groups, showing that individuals were consistent in their preferred foraging strategies over a period of at least several weeks. The results of the SIA as well as the foraging patterns recorded revealed a high degree of specialization for particular feeding sites and diets by individual Dolphin Gulls. Individual differences in foraging behavior were not related to sex. Specialization in Dolphin Gulls may be favored by the advantages of learning and memorizing optimal feeding locations and behaviors. Specialized individuals may reduce search and handling time and thus, optimize their

  18. Distribution Patterns Predict Individual Specialization in the Diet of Dolphin Gulls

    PubMed Central

    Masello, Juan F.; Wikelski, Martin; Voigt, Christian C.; Quillfeldt, Petra

    2013-01-01

    Many animals show some degree of individual specialization in foraging strategies and diet. This has profound ecological and evolutionary implications. For example, populations containing diverse individual foraging strategies will respond in different ways to changes in the environment, thus affecting the capacity of the populations to adapt to environmental changes and to diversify. However, patterns of individual specialization have been examined in few species. Likewise it is usually unknown whether specialization is maintained over time, because examining the temporal scale at which specialization occurs can prove difficult in the field. In the present study, we analyzed individual specialization in foraging in Dolphin Gulls Leucophaeus scoresbii, a scavenger endemic to the southernmost coasts of South America. We used GPS position logging and stable isotope analyses (SIA) to investigate individual specialization in feeding strategies and their persistence over time. The analysis of GPS data indicated two major foraging strategies in Dolphin Gulls from New I. (Falkland Is./Islas Malvinas). Tagged individuals repeatedly attended either a site with mussel beds or seabird and seal colonies during 5 to 7 days of tracking. Females foraging at mussel beds were heavier than those foraging at seabird colonies. Nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N) of Dolphin Gull blood cells clustered in two groups, showing that individuals were consistent in their preferred foraging strategies over a period of at least several weeks. The results of the SIA as well as the foraging patterns recorded revealed a high degree of specialization for particular feeding sites and diets by individual Dolphin Gulls. Individual differences in foraging behavior were not related to sex. Specialization in Dolphin Gulls may be favored by the advantages of learning and memorizing optimal feeding locations and behaviors. Specialized individuals may reduce search and handling time and thus, optimize their

  19. Individual difference in prepulse inhibition does not predict spatial learning and memory performance in C57BL/6 mice.

    PubMed

    Peleg-Raibstein, Daria; Philipp, Singer; Feldon, Joram; Yee, Benjamin K

    2015-12-01

    The startle reflex to an intense acoustic pulse stimulus is attenuated if the pulse stimulus is shortly preceded by a weak non-startling prepulse stimulus. This attenuation of the startle reflex represents a form of pre-attentional sensory gating known as prepulse inhibition (PPI). Although PPI does not require learning, its expression is regulated by higher cognitive processes. PPI deficits have been detected in several psychiatric conditions including schizophrenia where they co-exist with cognitive deficits. A potential link between PPI expression and cognitive performance has therefore been suggested such that poor PPI may predict, or may be mechanistically linked to, overt cognitive impairments. A positive relationship between PPI and strategy formation, planning efficiency, and execution speed has been observed in healthy humans. However, parallel studies in healthy animals are rare. It thus remains unclear what cognitive domains may be associated with, or orthogonal to, sensory gating in the form of PPI in healthy animals. The present study evaluated a potential link between the magnitude of PPI and spatial memory performance by comparing two subgroups of animals differing substantially in baseline PPI expression (low-PPI vs high-PPI) within a homogenous cohort of 100 male adult C57BL/6 mice. Assessment of spatial reference memory in the Morris water maze and spatial recognition memory in the Y-maze failed to reveal any difference between low-PPI and high-PPI subjects. These negative findings contrast with our previous reports that individual difference in PPI correlated with sustained attention and working memory performance in C57BL/6 mice. PMID:25893564

  20. Prediction of siRNA knockdown efficiency using artificial neural network models

    SciTech Connect

    Ge Guangtao . E-mail: guge@eecs.tufts.edu; Wong, G.William . E-mail: wong@wi.mit.edu; Luo Biao . E-mail: bluo@broad.mit.edu

    2005-10-21

    Selective knockdown of gene expression by short interference RNAs (siRNAs) has allowed rapid validation of gene functions and made possible a high throughput, genome scale approach to interrogate gene function. However, randomly designed siRNAs display different knockdown efficiencies of target genes. Hence, various prediction algorithms based on siRNA functionality have recently been constructed to increase the likelihood of selecting effective siRNAs, thereby reducing the experimental cost. Toward this end, we have trained three Back-propagation and Bayesian neural network models, previously not used in this context, to predict the knockdown efficiencies of 180 experimentally verified siRNAs on their corresponding target genes. Using our input coding based primarily on RNA structure thermodynamic parameters and cross-validation method, we showed that our neural network models outperformed most other methods and are comparable to the best predicting algorithm thus far published. Furthermore, our neural network models correctly classified 74% of all siRNAs into different efficiency categories; with a correlation coefficient of 0.43 and receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.78, thus highlighting the potential utility of this method to complement other existing siRNA classification and prediction schemes.

  1. Adaptive Prediction Error Coding in the Human Midbrain and Striatum Facilitates Behavioral Adaptation and Learning Efficiency.

    PubMed

    Diederen, Kelly M J; Spencer, Tom; Vestergaard, Martin D; Fletcher, Paul C; Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-06-01

    Effective error-driven learning benefits from scaling of prediction errors to reward variability. Such behavioral adaptation may be facilitated by neurons coding prediction errors relative to the standard deviation (SD) of reward distributions. To investigate this hypothesis, we required participants to predict the magnitude of upcoming reward drawn from distributions with different SDs. After each prediction, participants received a reward, yielding trial-by-trial prediction errors. In line with the notion of adaptive coding, BOLD response slopes in the Substantia Nigra/Ventral Tegmental Area (SN/VTA) and ventral striatum were steeper for prediction errors occurring in distributions with smaller SDs. SN/VTA adaptation was not instantaneous but developed across trials. Adaptive prediction error coding was paralleled by behavioral adaptation, as reflected by SD-dependent changes in learning rate. Crucially, increased SN/VTA and ventral striatal adaptation was related to improved task performance. These results suggest that adaptive coding facilitates behavioral adaptation and supports efficient learning. PMID:27181060

  2. Prediction of fruit and vegetable intake from biomarkers using individual participant data of diet-controlled intervention studies.

    PubMed

    Souverein, Olga W; de Vries, Jeanne H M; Freese, Riitta; Watzl, Bernhard; Bub, Achim; Miller, Edgar R; Castenmiller, Jacqueline J M; Pasman, Wilrike J; van Het Hof, Karin; Chopra, Mridula; Karlsen, Anette; Dragsted, Lars O; Winkels, Renate; Itsiopoulos, Catherine; Brazionis, Laima; O'Dea, Kerin; van Loo-Bouwman, Carolien A; Naber, Ton H J; van der Voet, Hilko; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

    2015-05-14

    Fruit and vegetable consumption produces changes in several biomarkers in blood. The present study aimed to examine the dose-response curve between fruit and vegetable consumption and carotenoid (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein and zeaxanthin), folate and vitamin C concentrations. Furthermore, a prediction model of fruit and vegetable intake based on these biomarkers and subject characteristics (i.e. age, sex, BMI and smoking status) was established. Data from twelve diet-controlled intervention studies were obtained to develop a prediction model for fruit and vegetable intake (including and excluding fruit and vegetable juices). The study population in the present individual participant data meta-analysis consisted of 526 men and women. Carotenoid, folate and vitamin C concentrations showed a positive relationship with fruit and vegetable intake. Measures of performance for the prediction model were calculated using cross-validation. For the prediction model of fruit, vegetable and juice intake, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 258.0 g, the correlation between observed and predicted intake was 0.78 and the mean difference between observed and predicted intake was - 1.7 g (limits of agreement: - 466.3, 462.8 g). For the prediction of fruit and vegetable intake (excluding juices), the RMSE was 201.1 g, the correlation was 0.65 and the mean bias was 2.4 g (limits of agreement: -368.2, 373.0 g). The prediction models which include the biomarkers and subject characteristics may be used to estimate average intake at the group level and to investigate the ranking of individuals with regard to their intake of fruit and vegetables when validating questionnaires that measure intake. PMID:25850683

  3. Communication Efficiency in Children: A Function of Individual Skill or Dyadic Interaction?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stipek, Deborah; Nelson, Katherine

    Two experiments investigating the efficiency of communication between 5th grade children from differing socioeconomic (SES) backgrounds are described. In each experiment, 40 same-sex pairs, half male and half female, were formed into dyadic groupings by combining lower- and middle-SES children into the four possible speaker-listener combinations.…

  4. Investigating the importance of various individual, interpersonal, organisational and demographic variables when predicting job burnout in disability support workers.

    PubMed

    Vassos, Maria V; Nankervis, Karen L

    2012-01-01

    Previous research has highlighted that factors such as large workload, role ambiguity, lack of support from colleagues, and challenging behaviour are associated with higher levels of burnout within the disability support worker (DSW) population. The aim of this research was to investigate which factors contribute the most to the prediction of the three facets of burnout--feeling exhausted and overextended by one's work (emotional exhaustion), detached and callous responses towards work (depersonalisation) and a lack of achievement and productivity within one's role (personal accomplishment). The factors chosen for analysis within this research were analysed within four categories linked to theories of burnout development (individual, interpersonal, organisational and demographic). A sample of 108 DSWs completed a questionnaire booklet that contained standardised measures of burnout and job stressors related to disability work. Results highlighted the importance of predictors such as challenging behaviour (interpersonal), workload (individual), supervisor support (individual), work-home conflict (individual), job feedback (individual), role ambiguity (organisational), low job status (organisational), role conflict (organisational), gender (demographic) and work hours (demographic) when predicting one or more of the facets of burnout. In conclusion, disability services and organisations may benefit from focusing on remodelling their staff-related organisational practices in order to prevent the development of burnout in their DSWs (e.g., increase supervision and support practices). PMID:22699251

  5. Can We Predict Individual Combined Benefit and Harm of Therapy? Warfarin Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation as a Test Case

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Delate, Thomas; Witt, Daniel M.; Levine, Mitchell A. H.; Cheng, Ji; Holbrook, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To construct and validate a prediction model for individual combined benefit and harm outcomes (stroke with no major bleeding, major bleeding with no stroke, neither event, or both) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with and without warfarin therapy. Methods Using the Kaiser Permanente Colorado databases, we included patients newly diagnosed with AF between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012 for model construction and validation. The primary outcome was a prediction model of composite of stroke or major bleeding using polytomous logistic regression (PLR) modelling. The secondary outcome was a prediction model of all-cause mortality using the Cox regression modelling. Results We included 9074 patients with 4537 and 4537 warfarin users and non-users, respectively. In the derivation cohort (n = 4632), there were 136 strokes (2.94%), 280 major bleedings (6.04%) and 1194 deaths (25.78%) occurred. In the prediction models, warfarin use was not significantly associated with risk of stroke, but increased the risk of major bleeding and decreased the risk of death. Both the PLR and Cox models were robust, internally and externally validated, and with acceptable model performances. Conclusions In this study, we introduce a new methodology for predicting individual combined benefit and harm outcomes associated with warfarin therapy for patients with AF. Should this approach be validated in other patient populations, it has potential advantages over existing risk stratification approaches as a patient-physician aid for shared decision-making PMID:27513986

  6. "All in a day's work": how follower individual differences and justice perceptions predict OCB role definitions and behavior.

    PubMed

    Kamdar, Dishan; McAllister, Daniel J; Turban, Daniel B

    2006-07-01

    The authors draw on theories of social exchange and prosocial behavior to explain how employee perceptions of procedural justice and individual differences in reciprocation wariness, empathic concern, and perspective taking function jointly as determinants of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) role definitions and behavior. As hypothesized, empirical findings from a field study show both direct and interactive effects of procedural justice perceptions and individual differences on OCB role definition. In turn, OCB role definitions not only predict OCB directly but also moderate the effects of procedural justice perceptions on OCB. The authors explore the implications of these findings for practice as well as research. PMID:16834509

  7. Functional connectivity between posterior hippocampus and retrosplenial complex predicts individual differences in navigational ability.

    PubMed

    Sulpizio, Valentina; Boccia, Maddalena; Guariglia, Cecilia; Galati, Gaspare

    2016-07-01

    Individuals vary widely in their ability to orient and navigate within the environment. Previous neuroimaging research has shown that hippocampus (HC) and scene-responsive regions (retrosplenial complex [RSC] and parahippocampal gyrus/parahippocampal place area [PPA]) were crucial for spatial orienting and navigation. Resting-state functional connectivity and a self-reported questionnaire of navigational ability were used to examine the hypothesis that the pattern of reciprocal connections between these regions reflects individual differences in spatial navigation. It was found that the functional connectivity between the posterior HC and RSC was significantly higher in good than in poor navigators. These results confirmed the crucial role of hippocampal and extra-hippocampal regions in spatial navigation and provided new insight into how spontaneous brain activity may account for individual differences in spatial ability. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27013151

  8. Predicting Gene Function from Uncontrolled Expression Variation among Individual Wild-Type Arabidopsis Plants[W

    PubMed Central

    Bhosale, Rahul; Jewell, Jeremy B.; Hollunder, Jens; Koo, Abraham J.K.; Vuylsteke, Marnik; Michoel, Tom; Hilson, Pierre; Goossens, Alain; Howe, Gregg A.; Browse, John; Maere, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Gene expression profiling studies are usually performed on pooled samples grown under tightly controlled experimental conditions to suppress variability among individuals and increase experimental reproducibility. In addition, to mask unwanted residual effects, the samples are often subjected to relatively harsh treatments that are unrealistic in a natural context. Here, we show that expression variations among individual wild-type Arabidopsis thaliana plants grown under the same macroscopic growth conditions contain as much information on the underlying gene network structure as expression profiles of pooled plant samples under controlled experimental perturbations. We advocate the use of subtle uncontrolled variations in gene expression between individuals to uncover functional links between genes and unravel regulatory influences. As a case study, we use this approach to identify ILL6 as a new regulatory component of the jasmonate response pathway. PMID:23943861

  9. Resting-state Networks Predict Individual Differences in Common and Specific Aspects of Executive Function

    PubMed Central

    Reineberg, Andrew E.; Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.; Depue, Brendan; Friedman, Naomi P.; Banich, Marie T.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine relationships between individual differences in resting state functional connectivity as ascertained by fMRI (rs-fcMRI) and performance on tasks of executive function (EF), broadly defined as the ability to regulate thoughts and actions. Unlike most previous research that focused on the relationship between rs-fcMRI and a single behavioral measure of EF, in the current study we examined the relationship of rs-fcMRI with individual differences in subcomponents of EF. Ninety-one adults completed a resting state fMRI scan and three separate EF tasks outside the magnet: inhibition of prepotent responses, task set shifting, and working memory updating. From these three measures, we derived estimates of common aspects of EF, as well as abilities specific to working memory updating and task shifting. Using Independent Components Analysis (ICA), we identified across the group of participants several networks of regions (Resting State Networks, RSNs) with temporally correlated time courses. We then used dual regression to explore how these RSNs covaried with individual differences in EF. Dual regression revealed that increased higher common EF was associated with connectivity of a) frontal pole with an attentional RSN, and b) Crus I and II of the cerebellum with the right frontoparietal RSN. Moreover, higher shifting-specific abilities were associated with increased connectivity of angular gyrus with a ventral attention RSN. The results of the current study suggest that the organization of the brain at rest may have important implications for individual differences in EF, and that individuals higher in EF may have expanded resting state networks as compared to individuals with lower EF. PMID:25281800

  10. Using individual interest and conscientiousness to predict academic effort: Additive, synergistic, or compensatory effects?

    PubMed

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Lüdtke, Oliver; Nagy, Nicole; Lenski, Anna; Niggli, Alois; Schnyder, Inge

    2015-07-01

    Although both conscientiousness and domain-specific interest are believed to be major determinants of academic effort, they have rarely been brought together in empirical studies. In the present research, it was hypothesized that both interest and conscientiousness uniquely predict academic effort and statistically interact with each other to predict academic effort. In 4 studies with 2,557, 415, 1,025, and 1,531 students, respectively, conscientiousness and interest meaningfully and uniquely predicted academic effort. In addition, conscientiousness interacted with interest in a compensatory pattern, indicating that conscientiousness is especially important when a student finds a school subject uninteresting and that domain-specific interest plays a particularly important role for students low in conscientiousness. PMID:25915134

  11. A Simple and Efficient Computational Approach to Chafed Cable Time-Domain Reflectometry Signature Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kowalski, Marc Edward

    2009-01-01

    A method for the prediction of time-domain signatures of chafed coaxial cables is presented. The method is quasi-static in nature, and is thus efficient enough to be included in inference and inversion routines. Unlike previous models proposed, no restriction on the geometry or size of the chafe is required in the present approach. The model is validated and its speed is illustrated via comparison to simulations from a commercial, three-dimensional electromagnetic simulator.

  12. IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

    2014-07-01

    Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate the solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in order to understand and predict their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming that crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the results of random distribution of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and can be included in vegetation models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change. The code and a user's manual are provided as Supplement of the paper.

  13. IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure, and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants for understanding and predicting their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the analytical solutions of random distributions of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and is suitable for ecological models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change.

  14. Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements Do Not Improve Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Individuals With Elevated Blood Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Bots, Michiel L.; Groenewegen, Karlijn A.; Anderson, Todd J.; Britton, Annie R.; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W.; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hedblad, Bo; Hofman, Albert; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kavousi, Maryam; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; Ikram, M. Arfan; Lonn, Eva M.; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O’Leary, Daniel H.; Polak, Joseph F.; Price, Jacqueline F.; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M.; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T.; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D.A.; Franco, Oscar H.; Peters, Sanne A.E.; den Ruijter, Hester M.

    2015-01-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (ie, a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, −1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6–10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant. PMID:24614213

  15. An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

  16. Severity of Hyperacusis Predicts Individual Differences in Speech Perception in Williams Syndrome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elsabbagh, M.; Cohen, H.; Cohen, M.; Rosen, S.; Karmiloff-Smith, A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Williams Syndrome (WS) is a neurodevelopmental disorder of genetic origin, characterised by relative proficiency in language in the face of serious impairment in several other domains. Individuals with WS display an unusual sensitivity to noise, known as hyperacusis. Methods: In this study, we examined the extent to which hyperacusis…

  17. Doctor, How Much Weight Will I Lose?-a New Individualized Predictive Model for Weight Loss.

    PubMed

    Goulart, André; Leão, Pedro; Costa, Patrício; Pereira, Maria; Fernandes, Aline; Manso, Fernando; Maia-da-Costa, José

    2016-06-01

    Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for weight loss, but the patient's ability to reach a sustained weight loss depends upon several technical and individual factors. Creating an easy model that adapts bariatric surgery's weight loss goals for each patient is very important for pre-surgery and follow-up evaluations. PMID:26983633

  18. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  19. Structural covariance networks of the dorsal anterior insula predict females' individual differences in empathic responding.

    PubMed

    Bernhardt, Boris C; Klimecki, Olga M; Leiberg, Susanne; Singer, Tania

    2014-08-01

    Previous functional imaging studies have shown key roles of the dorsal anterior insula (dAI) and anterior midcingulate cortex (aMCC) in empathy for the suffering of others. The current study mapped structural covariance networks of these regions and assessed the relationship between networks and individual differences in empathic responding in 94 females. Individual differences in empathy were assessed through average state measures in response to a video task showing others' suffering, and through questionnaire-based trait measures of empathic concern. Overall, covariance patterns indicated that dAI and aMCC are principal hubs within prefrontal, temporolimbic, and midline structural covariance networks. Importantly, participants with high empathy state ratings showed increased covariance of dAI, but not aMCC, to prefrontal and limbic brain regions. This relationship was specific for empathy and could not be explained by individual differences in negative affect ratings. Regarding questionnaire-based empathic trait measures, we observed a similar, albeit weaker modulation of dAI covariance, confirming the robustness of our findings. Our analysis, thus, provides novel evidence for a specific contribution of frontolimbic structural covariance networks to individual differences in social emotions beyond negative affect. PMID:23535178

  20. Multimedia Learning: Cognitive Individual Differences and Display Design Techniques Predict Transfer Learning with Multimedia Learning Modules

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Austin, Katherine A.

    2009-01-01

    In the wake of the information explosion and rapidly progressing technology [Mayer, R. E. (2001). "Multimedia learning". Cambridge: University Press] formulated a theory that focused on human cognition, rather than technology capacity and features. By measuring the effect of cognitive individual differences and display design manipulations on…

  1. Quantitative Approach to Collaborative Learning: Performance Prediction, Individual Assessment, and Group Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cen, Ling; Ruta, Dymitr; Powell, Leigh; Hirsch, Benjamin; Ng, Jason

    2016-01-01

    The benefits of collaborative learning, although widely reported, lack the quantitative rigor and detailed insight into the dynamics of interactions within the group, while individual contributions and their impacts on group members and their collaborative work remain hidden behind joint group assessment. To bridge this gap we intend to address…

  2. Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors predicting low back functional impairment among furniture distribution employees

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Sue A.; Allread, W. Gary; Burr, Deborah L.; Heaney, Catherine; Marras, William S.

    2013-01-01

    Background Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors for low back disorder have been studied extensively however few researchers have examined all three risk factors. The objective of this was to develop a low back disorder risk model in furniture distribution workers using biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors. Methods This was a prospective study with a six month follow-up time. There were 454 subjects at 9 furniture distribution facilities enrolled in the study. Biomechanical exposure was evaluated using the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (2001) lifting threshold limit values for low back injury risk. Psychosocial and individual risk factors were evaluated via questionnaires. Low back health functional status was measured using the lumbar motion monitor. Low back disorder cases were defined as a loss of low back functional performance of −0.14 or more. Findings There were 92 cases of meaningful loss in low back functional performance and 185 non cases. A multivariate logistic regression model included baseline functional performance probability, facility, perceived workload, intermediated reach distance number of exertions above threshold limit values, job tenure manual material handling, and age combined to provide a model sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 71.9%. Interpretation: The results of this study indicate which biomechanical, individual and psychosocial risk factors are important as well as how much of each risk factor is too much resulting in increased risk of low back disorder among furniture distribution workers. PMID:21955915

  3. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Sleep-Dependent Memory Consolidation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenn, Kimberly M.; Hambrick, David Z.

    2012-01-01

    Decades of research have established that "online" cognitive processes, which operate during conscious encoding and retrieval of information, contribute substantially to individual differences in memory. Furthermore, it is widely accepted that "offline" processes during sleep also contribute to memory performance. However, the question of whether…

  4. Predicting Longitudinal Change in Language Production and Comprehension in Individuals with Down Syndrome: Hierarchical Linear Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Robin S.; Hesketh, Linda J.; Kistler, Doris J.

    2002-01-01

    Longitudinal change in syntax comprehension and production skill, measured over six years, was modeled in 31 individuals (ages 5-20) with Down syndrome. The best fitting Hierarchical Linear Modeling model of comprehension uses age and visual and auditory short-term memory as predictors of initial status, and age for growth trajectory. (Contains…

  5. Migratory restlessness in captive individuals predicts actual departure in the wild

    PubMed Central

    Eikenaar, Cas; Klinner, Thomas; Szostek, K. Lesley; Bairlein, Franz

    2014-01-01

    In captivity, migratory birds show increased activity during the time that they would normally migrate. The phenology and intensity of such ‘migratory restlessness’ has been shown to mirror species- and population-specific migration patterns observed in the wild and has consequently been used as a proxy for the motivation to migrate. Many studies doing so, however, were aiming to explain among-individual variation in migratory behaviour or traits, and not species- or population-specific traits. These studies thus assumed that, also at the level of the individual, migratory restlessness is an accurate proxy for the motivation to migrate. We tested this assumption for the first time and found that it holds; individuals showing very little migratory restlessness remained at stopover for longer than one night, whereas most individuals showing more restlessness departed sooner. This finding validates the use of migratory restlessness as a proxy for the motivation to migrate, thereby justifying the conclusions made in a large body of research on avian migration. PMID:24718095

  6. Bullying and Victimization: Predictive Role of Individual, Parental, and Academic Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atik, Gökhan; Güneri, Oya Yerin

    2013-01-01

    This study explored the roles of individual factors (age, gender, locus of control, self-esteem, and loneliness), parenting style, and academic achievement in discriminating students involved in bullying (as bullies, victims, and bully/victims) from those not involved. Participants comprised 742 middle school students (393 females, 349 males). The…

  7. Individuation Experience Predicts Other-Race Effects in Holistic Processing for Both Caucasian and Black Participants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bukach, Cindy M.; Cottle, Jasmine; Ubiwa, JoAnna; Miller, Jessica

    2012-01-01

    Same-race (SR) faces are recognized better than other-race (OR) faces, and this other-race effect (ORE) is correlated with experience. SR faces are also processed more holistically than OR faces, suggesting one possible mechanism for poorer performance on OR faces. Studies of object expertise have shown that individuating experiences are necessary…

  8. Individual Differences in (Non-Visual) Processing Style Predict the Face Inversion Effect

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyer, Natalie A.; Martin, Douglas; Pickup, Tracey; Macrae, C. Neil

    2012-01-01

    Recent research suggests that individuals with relatively weak global precedence (i.e., a smaller propensity to view visual stimuli in a configural manner) show a reduced face inversion effect (FIE). Coupled with such findings, a number of recent studies have demonstrated links between an advantage for feature-based processing and the presentation…

  9. Effectiveness of genetic evaluations in predicting daughter performance in individual herds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Response to genetic selection has been demonstrated nationally for US dairy cattle, but producers are more likely to appreciate the value of genetic selection if trends within their own herds can be shown. Responses from 2004 through 2008 in individual herds by Holstein and Jersey cows were document...

  10. Emotional Experiences Predict the Conversion of Individuals with Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome to Psychosis: A 6-Month Follow up Study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fa Zhan; Wang, Yi; Sun, Xi Rong; Yao, Yu Hong; Zhang, Ning; Qiao, Hui Fen; Zhang, Lan; Li, Zhan Jiang; Lin, Hong; Lu, Zheng; Li, Jing; Chan, Raymond C. K.; Zhao, Xu Dong

    2016-01-01

    The present study explored the conversion rate in individuals with Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (APS) and potential predictor for transition in mainland China. Sixty-three participants identified as APS were followed up 6 months later. The results showed that 17% of individuals with APS converted to full-blown psychosis. The converters exhibited significantly poorer emotional experience and expression than the non-converters at baseline. A further binary logistic regression analysis showed that emotional experience could predict the transition (Wald = 4.18, p = 0.041, 95% CI = 1.04~6.82). The present study suggests an important role of emotional processing in the prediction of the development of full-blown psychosis. PMID:27313553

  11. Individual variation in fathers' testosterone reactivity to infant distress predicts parenting behaviors with their 1-year-old infants.

    PubMed

    Kuo, Patty X; Saini, Ekjyot K; Thomason, Elizabeth; Schultheiss, Oliver C; Gonzalez, Richard; Volling, Brenda L

    2016-04-01

    Positive father involvement is associated with positive child outcomes. There is great variation in fathers' involvement and fathering behaviors, and men's testosterone (T) has been proposed as a potential biological contributor to paternal involvement. Previous studies investigating testosterone changes in response to father-infant interactions or exposure to infant cues were unclear as to whether individual variation in T is predictive of fathering behavior. We show that individual variation in fathers' T reactivity to their infants during a challenging laboratory paradigm (Strange Situation) uniquely predicted fathers' positive parenting behaviors during a subsequent father-infant interaction, in addition to other psychosocial determinants of paternal involvement, such as dispositional empathy and marital quality. The findings have implications for understanding fathering behaviors and how fathers can contribute to their children's socioemotional development. PMID:26497119

  12. Trait Mindfulness Predicts Efficient Top-Down Attention to and Discrimination of Facial Expressions.

    PubMed

    Quaglia, Jordan T; Goodman, Robert J; Brown, Kirk Warren

    2016-06-01

    In social situations, skillful regulation of emotion and behavior depends on efficiently discerning others' emotions. Identifying factors that promote timely and accurate discernment of facial expressions can therefore advance understanding of social emotion regulation and behavior. The present research examined whether trait mindfulness predicts neural and behavioral markers of early top-down attention to, and efficient discrimination of, socioemotional stimuli. Attention-based event-related potentials (ERPs) and behavioral responses were recorded while participants (N = 62; White; 67% female; Mage = 19.09 years, SD = 2.14 years) completed an emotional go/no-go task involving happy, neutral, and fearful facial expressions. Mindfulness predicted larger (more negative) N100 and N200 ERP amplitudes to both go and no-go stimuli. Mindfulness also predicted faster response time that was not attributable to a speed-accuracy trade-off. Significant relations held after accounting for attentional control or social anxiety. This study adds neurophysiological support for foundational accounts that mindfulness entails moment-to-moment attention with lower tendencies toward habitual patterns of responding. Mindfulness may enhance the quality of social behavior in socioemotional contexts by promoting efficient top-down attention to and discrimination of others' emotions, alongside greater monitoring and inhibition of automatic response tendencies. PMID:25676934

  13. Efficiency prediction for a low head bulb turbine with SAS SST and zonal LES turbulence models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jošt, D.; Škerlavaj, A.

    2014-03-01

    A comparison between results of numerical simulations and measurements for a 3-blade bulb turbine is presented in order to determine an appropriate numerical setup for accurate and reliable simulations of flow in low head turbines. Numerical analysis was done for three angles of runner blades at two values of head. For the smallest blade angle the efficiency was quite accurately predicted, but for the optimal and maximal blade angles steady state analysis entirely failed to predict the efficiency due to underestimated torque on the shaft and incorrect results in the draft tube. Transient simulation with SST did not give satisfactory results, but with SAS and zonal LES models the prediction of efficiency was significantly improved. From the results obtained by SAS and zonal LES the interdependence between turbulence models, vortex structures in the flow, values of eddy viscosity and flow energy losses in the draft tube can be seen. Also the effect of using the bounded central differential scheme instead of the high resolution scheme was evident. To test the effect of grid density, simulations were performed on four grids. While a difference between results obtained on the basic grid and on the fine grid was small, the results obtained on the coarse grids were not satisfactory.

  14. New Mechanistic Based Correlation Equation for Predicting Colloid Attachment Efficiency: Traditional vs. Discrete Heterogeneity Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazmino, E. F.; Johnson, W. P.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present a correlation equation that predicts colloid attachment efficiency over soda-lime glass collectors. We review the traditional attachment efficiency approaches, which are based on packed column experiments and mean field parameters that define the colloid-collector interactions, and contrast them with a discrete heterogeneity approach. This new correlation equation was developed to capture prediction from a trajectory model that quantitatively explains directly observed colloid retention in an impinging jet system under unfavorable conditions via incorporation of discrete zones of attraction (nanoscale heterodomains). In order compare of observed and simulated retention in the impinging jet with granular porous media, we developed a linkage between the jet and Happel sphere unit-cell geometries. We demonstrate that attachment efficiency can be mechanistically explained by near surface trajectory analysis and well represented by three terms: 1) Maxwell distribution of colloids in the near surface fluid domain, 2) Spacing and size distribution of heterodomains on the collector relative to colloid size, and 3) Torque and force balance of the colloid in contact with heterodomains. These results indicate that a traditional empirical approach can be improved to a theoretical framework that, from basic principles, is able to predict colloid retention under unfavorable conditions.

  15. Does individual variation in metabolic phenotype predict fish behaviour and performance?

    PubMed

    Metcalfe, N B; Van Leeuwen, T E; Killen, S S

    2016-01-01

    There is increasing interest in documenting and explaining the existence of marked intraspecific variation in metabolic rate in animals, with fishes providing some of the best-studied examples. After accounting for variation due to other factors, there can typically be a two to three-fold variation among individual fishes for both standard and maximum metabolic rate (SMR and MMR). This variation is reasonably consistent over time (provided that conditions remain stable), and its underlying causes may be influenced by both genes and developmental conditions. In this paper, current knowledge of the extent and causes of individual variation in SMR, MMR and aerobic scope (AS), collectively its metabolic phenotype, is reviewed and potential links among metabolism, behaviour and performance are described. Intraspecific variation in metabolism has been found to be related to other traits: fishes with a relatively high SMR tend to be more dominant and grow faster in high food environments, but may lose their advantage and are more prone to risk-taking when conditions deteriorate. In contrast to the wide body of research examining links between SMR and behavioural traits, very little work has been directed towards understanding the ecological consequences of individual variation in MMR and AS. Although AS can differ among populations of the same species in response to performance demands, virtually nothing is known about the effects of AS on individual behaviours such as those associated with foraging or predator avoidance. Further, while factors such as food availability, temperature, hypoxia and the fish's social environment are known to alter resting and MMRs in fishes, there is a paucity of studies examining how these effects vary among individuals, and how this variation relates to behaviour. Given the observed links between metabolism and measures of performance, understanding the metabolic responses of individuals to changing environments will be a key area for

  16. Predicting Change for Individual Psychotherapy Clients on the Basis of their Nearest Neighbors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Leach, Chris; Barkham, Michael; Lucock, Mike; Stiles, William B.; Evans, Chris; Noble, Rachael; Iveson, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This study extended client-focused research by using the nearest neighbor (NN) approach, a client-specific sampling and prediction strategy derived from research on alpine avalanches. Psychotherapy clients (N = 203) seen in routine practice settings in the United Kingdom completed a battery of intake measures and then completed symptom intensity…

  17. Predicting Perceptions of Date Rape Based on Individual Beliefs and Female Alcohol Consumption.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osman, Suzanne L.; Davis, Clive M.

    1999-01-01

    Investigates whether female alcohol consumption predicts perceptions of date rape based on two personality measures administered to 290 undergraduates. Results indicate that a stronger belief in token resistance to sex was related to weaker perceptions of rape. As hypothesized, participants scoring higher on sex-role stereotyping perceived fewer…

  18. Individual Differences in Executive Functioning Predict Preschoolers' Improvement from Theory-of-Mind Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Jeannette E.; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Zelazo, Philip David

    2013-01-01

    Twenty-four 3.5-year-old children who initially showed poor performance on false-belief tasks participated in a training protocol designed to promote performance on these tasks. Our aim was to determine whether the extent to which children benefited from training was predicted by their performance on a battery of executive functioning tasks.…

  19. Individual differences in autistic trait load in the general population predict visual working memory performance.

    PubMed

    Richmond, Lauren L; Thorpe, Melissa; Berryhill, Marian E; Klugman, Joshua; Olson, Ingrid R

    2013-06-01

    Prior studies have reported instances of both intact and impaired working memory (WM) performance in people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). In order to investigate the relation between autistic traits that extend into the normal population and WM, 104 normal college-aged students who varied in their levels of autistic traits were tested. The loading of ASD-associated traits in the normal population leads to differing predictions about WM performance. ASD traits related to a local processing style (or "attention to detail") might enhance WM while ASD-associated traits related to difficulty switching attention and reorienting focus (or "social interaction") might impair WM performance. To assess these predictions, participants filled out the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) and performed a working memory task with both visual and verbal variants. AQ scores were then broken into "attention to detail" and "social interaction" factors, as proposed by Hoekstra and colleagues. The results showed that AQ scores did not predict verbal WM performance but they did predict visual WM performance. The social interaction and attention to detail factors of the AQ had opposing relationships with visual WM performance: A higher level of social difficulty was associated with significantly poorer visual WM performance while a higher level of attention to detail was associated with enhanced visual WM performance. Further investigation of the relation between AQ and WM using the original five-factor model proposed by Baron-Cohen and colleagues (2001) revealed an association between impoverished imagination and visual WM overall. PMID:23121303

  20. Predicting Young Adult Outcome among More and Less Cognitively Able Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Deborah K.; Liang, Jessie W.; Lord, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Background: The range of outcomes for young adults with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) and the early childhood factors associated with this diversity have implications for clinicians and scientists. Methods: This prospective study provided a unique opportunity to predict outcome 17 years later for a relatively large sample of children diagnosed…

  1. Computational Fluency and Strategy Choice Predict Individual and Cross-National Differences in Complex Arithmetic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vasilyeva, Marina; Laski, Elida V.; Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    The present study tested the hypothesis that children's fluency with basic number facts and knowledge of computational strategies, derived from early arithmetic experience, predicts their performance on complex arithmetic problems. First-grade students from United States and Taiwan (N = 152, mean age: 7.3 years) were presented with problems that…

  2. Efficient method for predicting crystal structures at finite temperature: variable box shape simulations.

    PubMed

    Filion, Laura; Marechal, Matthieu; van Oorschot, Bas; Pelt, Daniël; Smallenburg, Frank; Dijkstra, Marjolein

    2009-10-30

    We present an efficient and robust method based on Monte Carlo simulations for predicting crystal structures at finite temperature. We apply this method, which is surprisingly easy to implement, to a variety of systems, demonstrating its effectiveness for hard, attractive, and anisotropic interactions, binary mixtures, semi-long-range soft interactions, and truly long-range interactions where the truly long-range interactions are treated using Ewald sums. In the case of binary hard-sphere mixtures, star polymers, and binary Lennard-Jones mixtures, the crystal structures predicted by this algorithm are consistent with literature, providing confidence in the method. Finally, we predict new crystal structures for hard asymmetric dumbbell particles, bowl-like particles and hard oblate cylinders and present the phase diagram for the oblate cylinders based on full free energy calculations. PMID:19905838

  3. How Plantar Exteroceptive Efficiency Modulates Postural and Oculomotor Control: Inter-Individual Variability

    PubMed Central

    Foisy, Arnaud; Kapoula, Zoï

    2016-01-01

    In a previous experiment, we showed that among young and healthy subjects, thin plantar inserts improve postural control and modify vergence amplitudes. In this experiment, however, significant inter-individual variability was observed. We hypothesize that its origin could be attributed to a different reliance upon feet cutaneous afferents. In order to test this hypothesis, we re-analyzed the data relative to 31 young (age 25.7 ± 3.8) and healthy subjects who participated in the first experiment after having classified them into two groups depending on their Plantar Quotient (PQ = Surface area of CoPfoam/Surface area of CoPfirm ground × 100). Foam decreases the information arising from the feet, normally resulting in a PQ > 100. Hence, the PQ provides information on the weight of plantar cutaneous afferents used in postural control. Twelve people were Plantar-Independent Subjects, as indicated by a PQ < 100. These individuals did not behave like the Normal Plantar Quotient Subjects: they were almost insensitive to the plantar stimulations in terms of postural control and totally insensitive in terms of oculomotor control. We conclude that the inter-individual variability observed in our first experiment is explained by the subjects' degree of plantar reliance. We propose that plantar independence is a dysfunctional situation revealing inefficiency in plantar cutaneous afferents. The latter could be due to a latent somatosensory dysfunction generating a noise which prevents the CNS from correctly processing and using feet somatosensory afferents both for balance and vergence control: Plantar Irritating Stimulus. Considering the non-noxious nature and prevalence of this phenomenon, these results can be of great interest to researchers and clinicians who attempt to trigger postural or oculomotor responses through mechanical stimulation of the foot sole. PMID:27242490

  4. Efficient Monte Carlo modelling of individual tumour cell propagation for hypoxic head and neck cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuckwell, W.; Bezak, E.; Yeoh, E.; Marcu, L.

    2008-09-01

    A Monte Carlo tumour model has been developed to simulate tumour cell propagation for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The model aims to eventually provide a radiobiological tool for radiation oncology clinicians to plan patient treatment schedules based on properties of the individual tumour. The inclusion of an oxygen distribution amongst the tumour cells enables the model to incorporate hypoxia and other associated parameters, which affect tumour growth. The object oriented program FORTRAN 95 has been used to create the model algorithm, with Monte Carlo methods being employed to randomly assign many of the cell parameters from probability distributions. Hypoxia has been implemented through random assignment of partial oxygen pressure values to individual cells during tumour growth, based on in vivo Eppendorf probe experimental data. The accumulation of up to 10 million virtual tumour cells in 15 min of computer running time has been achieved. The stem cell percentage and the degree of hypoxia are the parameters which most influence the final tumour growth rate. For a tumour with a doubling time of 40 days, the final stem cell percentage is approximately 1% of the total cell population. The effect of hypoxia on the tumour growth rate is significant. Using a hypoxia induced cell quiescence limit which affects 50% of cells with and oxygen levels less than 1 mm Hg, the tumour doubling time increases to over 200 days and the time of tumour growth for a clinically detectable tumour (109 cells) increases from 3 to 8 years. A biologically plausible Monte Carlo model of hypoxic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma tumour growth has been developed for real time assessment of the effects of multiple biological parameters which impact upon the response of the individual patient to fractionated radiotherapy.

  5. Efficient Monte Carlo modelling of individual tumour cell propagation for hypoxic head and neck cancer.

    PubMed

    Tuckwell, W; Bezak, E; Yeoh, E; Marcu, L

    2008-09-01

    A Monte Carlo tumour model has been developed to simulate tumour cell propagation for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The model aims to eventually provide a radiobiological tool for radiation oncology clinicians to plan patient treatment schedules based on properties of the individual tumour. The inclusion of an oxygen distribution amongst the tumour cells enables the model to incorporate hypoxia and other associated parameters, which affect tumour growth. The object oriented program FORTRAN 95 has been used to create the model algorithm, with Monte Carlo methods being employed to randomly assign many of the cell parameters from probability distributions. Hypoxia has been implemented through random assignment of partial oxygen pressure values to individual cells during tumour growth, based on in vivo Eppendorf probe experimental data. The accumulation of up to 10 million virtual tumour cells in 15 min of computer running time has been achieved. The stem cell percentage and the degree of hypoxia are the parameters which most influence the final tumour growth rate. For a tumour with a doubling time of 40 days, the final stem cell percentage is approximately 1% of the total cell population. The effect of hypoxia on the tumour growth rate is significant. Using a hypoxia induced cell quiescence limit which affects 50% of cells with and oxygen levels less than 1 mm Hg, the tumour doubling time increases to over 200 days and the time of tumour growth for a clinically detectable tumour (10(9) cells) increases from 3 to 8 years. A biologically plausible Monte Carlo model of hypoxic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma tumour growth has been developed for real time assessment of the effects of multiple biological parameters which impact upon the response of the individual patient to fractionated radiotherapy. PMID:18677039

  6. How Plantar Exteroceptive Efficiency Modulates Postural and Oculomotor Control: Inter-Individual Variability.

    PubMed

    Foisy, Arnaud; Kapoula, Zoï

    2016-01-01

    In a previous experiment, we showed that among young and healthy subjects, thin plantar inserts improve postural control and modify vergence amplitudes. In this experiment, however, significant inter-individual variability was observed. We hypothesize that its origin could be attributed to a different reliance upon feet cutaneous afferents. In order to test this hypothesis, we re-analyzed the data relative to 31 young (age 25.7 ± 3.8) and healthy subjects who participated in the first experiment after having classified them into two groups depending on their Plantar Quotient (PQ = Surface area of CoPfoam/Surface area of CoPfirm ground × 100). Foam decreases the information arising from the feet, normally resulting in a PQ > 100. Hence, the PQ provides information on the weight of plantar cutaneous afferents used in postural control. Twelve people were Plantar-Independent Subjects, as indicated by a PQ < 100. These individuals did not behave like the Normal Plantar Quotient Subjects: they were almost insensitive to the plantar stimulations in terms of postural control and totally insensitive in terms of oculomotor control. We conclude that the inter-individual variability observed in our first experiment is explained by the subjects' degree of plantar reliance. We propose that plantar independence is a dysfunctional situation revealing inefficiency in plantar cutaneous afferents. The latter could be due to a latent somatosensory dysfunction generating a noise which prevents the CNS from correctly processing and using feet somatosensory afferents both for balance and vergence control: Plantar Irritating Stimulus. Considering the non-noxious nature and prevalence of this phenomenon, these results can be of great interest to researchers and clinicians who attempt to trigger postural or oculomotor responses through mechanical stimulation of the foot sole. PMID:27242490

  7. A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Houben, Ruud; Heuvel, Michel van de; Uyterlinde, Wilma; Deasy, Joseph O.; Belderbos, Jose; Dingemans, Anne-Marie C.; Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun; Lambin, Philippe

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.

  8. Predicting Optimal Outcomes in Cognitive Therapy or Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Depressed Individuals Using the Personalized Advantage Index Approach

    PubMed Central

    Huibers, Marcus J. H.; Cohen, Zachary D.; Lemmens, Lotte H. J. M.; Arntz, Arnoud; Peeters, Frenk P. M. L.; Cuijpers, Pim; DeRubeis, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works best for the depressed individual. In this paper, we aim to replicate a recently developed treatment selection method, using data from an RCT comparing the effects of cognitive therapy (CT) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT). Methods 134 depressed patients completed the pre- and post-treatment BDI-II assessment. First, we identified baseline predictors and moderators. Second, individual treatment recommendations were generated by combining the identified predictors and moderators in an algorithm that produces the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI), a measure of the predicted advantage in one therapy compared to the other, using standard regression analyses and the leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Results We found five predictors (gender, employment status, anxiety, personality disorder and quality of life) and six moderators (somatic complaints, cognitive problems, paranoid symptoms, interpersonal self-sacrificing, attributional style and number of life events) of treatment outcome. The mean average PAI value was 8.9 BDI points, and 63% of the sample was predicted to have a clinically meaningful advantage in one of the therapies. Those who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment (either CT or IPT) had an observed mean end-BDI of 11.8, while those who received their predicted non-optimal treatment had an end-BDI of 17.8 (effect size for the difference = 0.51). Discussion Depressed patients who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment fared much better than those randomized to their predicted non-optimal treatment. The PAI provides a great opportunity for formal decision-making to improve individual patient outcomes in depression. Although

  9. Efficient Prediction Structures for H.264 Multi View Coding Using Temporal Scalability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guruvareddiar, Palanivel; Joseph, Biju K.

    2014-03-01

    Prediction structures with "disposable view components based" hierarchical coding have been proven to be efficient for H.264 multi view coding. Though these prediction structures along with the QP cascading schemes provide superior compression efficiency when compared to the traditional IBBP coding scheme, the temporal scalability requirements of the bit stream could not be met to the fullest. On the other hand, a fully scalable bit stream, obtained by "temporal identifier based" hierarchical coding, provides a number of advantages including bit rate adaptations and improved error resilience, but lacks in compression efficiency when compared to the former scheme. In this paper it is proposed to combine the two approaches such that a fully scalable bit stream could be realized with minimal reduction in compression efficiency when compared to state-of-the-art "disposable view components based" hierarchical coding. Simulation results shows that the proposed method enables full temporal scalability with maximum BDPSNR reduction of only 0.34 dB. A novel method also has been proposed for the identification of temporal identifier for the legacy H.264/AVC base layer packets. Simulation results also show that this enables the scenario where the enhancement views could be extracted at a lower frame rate (1/2nd or 1/4th of base view) with average extraction time for a view component of only 0.38 ms.

  10. An approximate solution to improve computational efficiency of impedance-type payload load prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, C. W.

    1981-01-01

    The computational efficiency of the impedance type loads prediction method was studied. Three goals were addressed: devise a method to make the impedance method operate more efficiently in the computer; assess the accuracy and convenience of the method for determining the effect of design changes; and investigate the use of the method to identify design changes for reduction of payload loads. The method is suitable for calculation of dynamic response in either the frequency or time domain. It is concluded that: the choice of an orthogonal coordinate system will allow the impedance method to operate more efficiently in the computer; the approximate mode impedance technique is adequate for determining the effect of design changes, and is applicable for both statically determinate and statically indeterminate payload attachments; and beneficial design changes to reduce payload loads can be identified by the combined application of impedance techniques and energy distribution review techniques.

  11. Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Psychosis: Predictive Utility of Support Vector Machine using Structural and Functional MRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Valli, Isabel; Marquand, Andre F.; Mechelli, Andrea; Raffin, Marie; Allen, Paul; Seal, Marc L.; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is, therefore, increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analyzed using a standard univariate analysis, and with support vector machine (SVM), a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p < 0.001). Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. By contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p < 0.05 corrected), while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis. PMID:27092086

  12. Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Psychosis: Predictive Utility of Support Vector Machine using Structural and Functional MRI Data.

    PubMed

    Valli, Isabel; Marquand, Andre F; Mechelli, Andrea; Raffin, Marie; Allen, Paul; Seal, Marc L; McGuire, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is, therefore, increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analyzed using a standard univariate analysis, and with support vector machine (SVM), a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p < 0.001). Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. By contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p < 0.05 corrected), while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis. PMID:27092086

  13. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  14. Forces of individual cat ankle extensor muscles during locomotion predicted using static optimization.

    PubMed

    Prilutsky, B I; Herzog, W; Allinger, T L

    1997-10-01

    In order to test the principles of the control of synergistic muscles that were proposed in the literature, forces of cat soleus (SO), gastrocnemius (GA), and plantaris (PL) measured during locomotion were compared with the corresponding forces predicted using different optimization criteria. Forces of cat SO, GA, and PL, and the corresponding cat kinematics were recorded simultaneously using E-shaped force transducers and high-speed video, respectively. Measurements were obtained from three cats walking and trotting on a treadmill at five nominal speeds ranging from 0.4 to 1.8 m s-1. Muscle forces were predicted using static optimization and a musculoskeletal model of the cat hindlimb consisting of three segments (foot, shank, and thigh) and three muscles (SO, GA, and PL). Six optimization criteria which had been proposed in the literature were tested. Linear criteria based on the principles of minimum muscle force and stress predicted forces during the stance phase with an average normalized error of 59-322%. Three other criteria--minimization of the sum of the relative muscle forces squared, minimization of the sum of the muscle stresses cubed, and minimization of the upper bound for all of the muscle stresses-showed a better performance: (i) the average error was 43-119% and (ii) the correlation coefficient calculated between the predicted and actual forces exceeded 0.9 for all three muscles. A criterion that was based on the principle of minimum fatigue and accounted for the percentage of slow-twitch fibers in the muscles, had the lowest average error (26-52%). The high correlation (0.97-0.99) between the measured forces and forces predicted by using the minimum fatigue criterion suggested that force sharing among SO, GA, and PL during cat locomotion may be the same for a given set of joint moments and muscle moment arms. It was concluded that static optimization with the appropriate criterion can predict muscle forces adequately for specific movement

  15. Using bench press load to predict upper body exercise loads in physically active individuals.

    PubMed

    Wong, Del P; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A; Smith, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m(-2)) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p < 0.01). The bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p < 0.01). Linear regression revealed that the bench press load was a significant (R(2) range from 0.64 to 0.86, p < 0.01) predictor for the loads of the 4 assistance exercises. The following 6RM prediction equations were determined: (a) Hammer curl = Bench press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key pointsThe bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises.No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations.6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. PMID:24149723

  16. Predicting internet pornography use and arousal: the role of individual difference variables.

    PubMed

    Paul, Bryant

    2009-01-01

    This study considers the relation between a number of theoretically relevant individual difference variables and individuals' online pornography use and arousal patterns. In doing so, an attempt is also made to determine whether self-reports of arousal can be collapsed into meaningful empirically derived content groupings. An exploratory factor analysis produces 3 factors for men: standard fare, specialized, and male-focused; and two factors for women: standard fare and specialized. Findings indicate that sexual disposition is a strong predictor of standard fare use and arousal for both genders. Men and women higher in psychopathy were more likely to use all forms of content. For those high in psychopathy, however, men were only slightly, and women not at all, more likely to find standard fare content arousing. Results are discussed in terms of their potential value for understanding an often overlooked first step in the process of pornography consumption. PMID:19219657

  17. Individual differences in selective attention predict speech identification at a cocktail party.

    PubMed

    Oberfeld, Daniel; Klöckner-Nowotny, Felicitas

    2016-01-01

    Listeners with normal hearing show considerable individual differences in speech understanding when competing speakers are present, as in a crowded restaurant. Here, we show that one source of this variance are individual differences in the ability to focus selective attention on a target stimulus in the presence of distractors. In 50 young normal-hearing listeners, the performance in tasks measuring auditory and visual selective attention was associated with sentence identification in the presence of spatially separated competing speakers. Together, the measures of selective attention explained a similar proportion of variance as the binaural sensitivity for the acoustic temporal fine structure. Working memory span, age, and audiometric thresholds showed no significant association with speech understanding. These results suggest that a reduced ability to focus attention on a target is one reason why some listeners with normal hearing sensitivity have difficulty communicating in situations with background noise. PMID:27580272

  18. Amygdala Volume Predicts Inter-Individual Differences in Fearful Face Recognition

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Ke; Yan, Wen-Jing; Chen, Yu-Hsin; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Fu, Xiaolan

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between inter-individual differences in fearful face recognition and amygdala volume. Thirty normal adults were recruited and each completed two identical facial expression recognition tests offline and two magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Linear regression indicated that the left amygdala volume negatively correlated with the accuracy of recognizing fearful facial expressions and positively correlated with the probability of misrecognizing fear as surprise. Further exploratory analyses revealed that this relationship did not exist for any other subcortical or cortical regions. Nor did such a relationship exist between the left amygdala volume and performance recognizing the other five facial expressions. These mind-brain associations highlight the importance of the amygdala in recognizing fearful faces and provide insights regarding inter-individual differences in sensitivity toward fear-relevant stimuli. PMID:24009767

  19. Amygdala volume predicts inter-individual differences in fearful face recognition.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ke; Yan, Wen-Jing; Chen, Yu-Hsin; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Fu, Xiaolan

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between inter-individual differences in fearful face recognition and amygdala volume. Thirty normal adults were recruited and each completed two identical facial expression recognition tests offline and two magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Linear regression indicated that the left amygdala volume negatively correlated with the accuracy of recognizing fearful facial expressions and positively correlated with the probability of misrecognizing fear as surprise. Further exploratory analyses revealed that this relationship did not exist for any other subcortical or cortical regions. Nor did such a relationship exist between the left amygdala volume and performance recognizing the other five facial expressions. These mind-brain associations highlight the importance of the amygdala in recognizing fearful faces and provide insights regarding inter-individual differences in sensitivity toward fear-relevant stimuli. PMID:24009767

  20. Individual aptitude in Mandarin lexical tone perception predicts effectiveness of high-variability training.

    PubMed

    Sadakata, Makiko; McQueen, James M

    2014-01-01

    Although the high-variability training method can enhance learning of non-native speech categories, this can depend on individuals' aptitude. The current study asked how general the effects of perceptual aptitude are by testing whether they occur with training materials spoken by native speakers and whether they depend on the nature of the to-be-learned material. Forty-five native Dutch listeners took part in a 5-day training procedure in which they identified bisyllabic Mandarin pseudowords (e.g., asa) pronounced with different lexical tone combinations. The training materials were presented to different groups of listeners at three levels of variability: low (many repetitions of a limited set of words recorded by a single speaker), medium (fewer repetitions of a more variable set of words recorded by three speakers), and high (similar to medium but with five speakers). Overall, variability did not influence learning performance, but this was due to an interaction with individuals' perceptual aptitude: increasing variability hindered improvements in performance for low-aptitude perceivers while it helped improvements in performance for high-aptitude perceivers. These results show that the previously observed interaction between individuals' aptitude and effects of degree of variability extends to natural tokens of Mandarin speech. This interaction was not found, however, in a closely matched study in which native Dutch listeners were trained on the Japanese geminate/singleton consonant contrast. This may indicate that the effectiveness of high-variability training depends not only on individuals' aptitude in speech perception but also on the nature of the categories being acquired. PMID:25505434

  1. Which trunk inclination directions best predict multidirectional-seated limits of stability among individuals with spinal cord injury?

    PubMed Central

    Gauthier, Cindy; Gagnon, Dany; Jacquemin, Géraldine; Duclos, Cyril; Masani, Kei; Popovic, Milos R.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine which trunk inclination directions most accurately predict multidirectional-seated limits of stability among individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). Design Predictive study using cross-sectional data. Setting Pathokinesiology Laboratory. Participants Twenty-one individuals with complete or incomplete sensorimotor SCI affecting various vertebral levels participated in this study. Interventions Participants were instructed to lean their trunk as far as possible in eight directions, separated by 45° intervals, while seated on an instrumented chair with their feet positioned on force plates. Outcomes measures Eight direction-specific stability indices (DSIs) were used to define an overall stability index (OSI) (limits of stability). Results All DSIs significantly correlated with the OSI (r = 0.816–0.925). A protocol that only tests the anterior, left postero-lateral, and right lateral trunk inclinations accurately predicts multidirectional-seated postural stability (R2 = 0.98; P < 0.001). Conclusion Multidirectional-seated postural stability can be predicted almost perfectly by evaluating trunk inclinations performed toward the anterior, left postero-lateral, and right lateral directions. PMID:23031171

  2. Individualized Gaussian process-based prediction and detection of local and global gray matter abnormalities in elderly subjects.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, G; Ridgway, G R; Dahnke, R; Gaser, C

    2014-08-15

    Structural imaging based on MRI is an integral component of the clinical assessment of patients with potential dementia. We here propose an individualized Gaussian process-based inference scheme for clinical decision support in healthy and pathological aging elderly subjects using MRI. The approach aims at quantitative and transparent support for clinicians who aim to detect structural abnormalities in patients at risk of Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia. Firstly, we introduce a generative model incorporating our knowledge about normative decline of local and global gray matter volume across the brain in elderly. By supposing smooth structural trajectories the models account for the general course of age-related structural decline as well as late-life accelerated loss. Considering healthy subjects' demography and global brain parameters as informative about normal brain aging variability affords individualized predictions in single cases. Using Gaussian process models as a normative reference, we predict new subjects' brain scans and quantify the local gray matter abnormalities in terms of Normative Probability Maps (NPM) and global z-scores. By integrating the observed expectation error and the predictive uncertainty, the local maps and global scores exploit the advantages of Bayesian inference for clinical decisions and provide a valuable extension of diagnostic information about pathological aging. We validate the approach in simulated data and real MRI data. We train the GP framework using 1238 healthy subjects with ages 18-94 years, and predict in 415 independent test subjects diagnosed as healthy controls, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's disease. PMID:24742919

  3. Brainstem White Matter Predicts Individual Differences in Manual Motor Difficulties and Symptom Severity in Autism.

    PubMed

    Travers, Brittany G; Bigler, Erin D; Tromp, Do P M; Adluru, Nagesh; Destiche, Dan; Samsin, Danica; Froehlich, Alyson; Prigge, Molly D B; Duffield, Tyler C; Lange, Nicholas; Alexander, Andrew L; Lainhart, Janet E

    2015-09-01

    Mounting evidence suggests that poorer motor skills may be related to more severe autism symptoms. This study investigated if atypical white matter microstructure in the brain mediated the relationship between motor skills and ASD symptom severity. Sixty-seven males with ASD and 42 males with typical development (5-33 years old) completed a diffusion tensor imaging scan and measures of grip strength, finger tapping, and autism symptom severity. Within the ASD group, weaker grip strength predicted more severe autism symptoms. Fractional anisotropy of the brainstem's corticospinal tract predicted both grip strength and autism symptom severity and mediated the relationship between the two. These findings suggest that brainstem white matter may contribute to autism symptoms and grip strength in ASD. PMID:26001365

  4. Individual Differences in Rhythmic Cortical Entrainment Correlate with Predictive Behavior in Sensorimotor Synchronization.

    PubMed

    Nozaradan, Sylvie; Peretz, Isabelle; Keller, Peter E

    2016-01-01

    The current study aims at characterizing the mechanisms that allow humans to entrain the mind and body to incoming rhythmic sensory inputs in real time. We addressed this unresolved issue by examining the relationship between covert neural processes and overt behavior in the context of musical rhythm. We measured temporal prediction abilities, sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and neural entrainment to auditory rhythms as captured using an EEG frequency-tagging approach. Importantly, movement synchronization accuracy with a rhythmic beat could be explained by the amplitude of neural activity selectively locked with the beat period when listening to the rhythmic inputs. Furthermore, stronger endogenous neural entrainment at the beat frequency was associated with superior temporal prediction abilities. Together, these results reveal a direct link between cortical and behavioral measures of rhythmic entrainment, thus providing evidence that frequency-tagged brain activity has functional relevance for beat perception and synchronization. PMID:26847160

  5. Individual Differences in Rhythmic Cortical Entrainment Correlate with Predictive Behavior in Sensorimotor Synchronization

    PubMed Central

    Nozaradan, Sylvie; Peretz, Isabelle; Keller, Peter E.

    2016-01-01

    The current study aims at characterizing the mechanisms that allow humans to entrain the mind and body to incoming rhythmic sensory inputs in real time. We addressed this unresolved issue by examining the relationship between covert neural processes and overt behavior in the context of musical rhythm. We measured temporal prediction abilities, sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and neural entrainment to auditory rhythms as captured using an EEG frequency-tagging approach. Importantly, movement synchronization accuracy with a rhythmic beat could be explained by the amplitude of neural activity selectively locked with the beat period when listening to the rhythmic inputs. Furthermore, stronger endogenous neural entrainment at the beat frequency was associated with superior temporal prediction abilities. Together, these results reveal a direct link between cortical and behavioral measures of rhythmic entrainment, thus providing evidence that frequency-tagged brain activity has functional relevance for beat perception and synchronization. PMID:26847160

  6. The occurrence of individual slow waves in sleep is predicted by heart rate.

    PubMed

    Mensen, Armand; Zhang, Zhongxing; Qi, Ming; Khatami, Ramin

    2016-01-01

    The integration of near-infrared spectroscopy and electroencephalography measures presents an ideal method to study the haemodynamics of sleep. While the cortical dynamics and neuro-modulating influences affecting the transition from wakefulness to sleep is well researched, the assumption has been that individual slow waves, the hallmark of deep sleep, are spontaneously occurring cortical events. By creating event-related potentials from the NIRS recording, time-locked to the onset of thousands of individual slow waves, we show the onset of slow waves is phase-locked to an ongoing oscillation in the NIRS recording. This oscillation stems from the moment to moment fluctuations of light absorption caused by arterial pulsations driven by the heart beat. The same oscillating signal can be detected if the electrocardiogram is time-locked to the onset of the slow wave. The ongoing NIRS oscillation suggests that individual slow wave initiation is dependent on that signal, and not the other way round. However, the precise causal links remain speculative. We propose several potential mechanisms: that the heart-beat or arterial pulsation acts as a stimulus which evokes a down-state; local fluctuations in energy supply may lead to a network effect of hyperpolarization; that the arterial pulsations lead to corresponding changes in the cerebral-spinal-fluid which evokes the slow wave; or that a third neural generator, regulating heart rate and slow waves may be involved. PMID:27445083

  7. Individual differences in subconscious motor control predicted by GABA concentration in SMA

    PubMed Central

    Boy, Frederic; Evans, C. John; Edden, Richard A. E.; Singh, Krish D.; Husain, Masud; Sumner, Petroc

    2011-01-01

    Summary Subliminal visual stimuli affect motor planning [1] but the size of such effects differs greatly between individuals [2, 3]. Here we investigated whether such variation may be related to neurochemical differences between people. Cortical responsiveness is expected to be lower under the influence of more of the main inhibitory neurotransmitter, GABA [4]. Thus we hypothesized that if an individual has more GABA in the supplementary motor area (SMA) – a region previously associated with automatic motor control [5] – this would result in smaller subliminal effects. We measured the reversed masked prime – or negative compatibility – effect, and found that it correlated strongly with GABA concentration, measured with magnetic resonance spectroscopy. This occurred specifically in the SMA region and not in other regions from which spectroscopy measurements were taken. We replicated these results in an independent cohort: more GABA in the SMA region is reliably associated with smaller effect size. These findings suggest that, across individuals, the responsiveness of subconscious motor mechanisms is related to GABA concentration in the SMA. PMID:20888227

  8. The occurrence of individual slow waves in sleep is predicted by heart rate

    PubMed Central

    Mensen, Armand; Zhang, Zhongxing; Qi, Ming; Khatami, Ramin

    2016-01-01

    The integration of near-infrared spectroscopy and electroencephalography measures presents an ideal method to study the haemodynamics of sleep. While the cortical dynamics and neuro-modulating influences affecting the transition from wakefulness to sleep is well researched, the assumption has been that individual slow waves, the hallmark of deep sleep, are spontaneously occurring cortical events. By creating event-related potentials from the NIRS recording, time-locked to the onset of thousands of individual slow waves, we show the onset of slow waves is phase-locked to an ongoing oscillation in the NIRS recording. This oscillation stems from the moment to moment fluctuations of light absorption caused by arterial pulsations driven by the heart beat. The same oscillating signal can be detected if the electrocardiogram is time-locked to the onset of the slow wave. The ongoing NIRS oscillation suggests that individual slow wave initiation is dependent on that signal, and not the other way round. However, the precise causal links remain speculative. We propose several potential mechanisms: that the heart-beat or arterial pulsation acts as a stimulus which evokes a down-state; local fluctuations in energy supply may lead to a network effect of hyperpolarization; that the arterial pulsations lead to corresponding changes in the cerebral-spinal-fluid which evokes the slow wave; or that a third neural generator, regulating heart rate and slow waves may be involved. PMID:27445083

  9. Occipital cortical thickness predicts performance on pitch and musical tasks in blind individuals.

    PubMed

    Voss, Patrice; Zatorre, Robert J

    2012-11-01

    The behavioral and neurofunctional consequences of blindness often include performance enhancements and recruitment of occipital regions for nonvisual tasks. How the neuroanatomical changes resulting from this sensory loss relate to these functional changes is, however, less clear. Previous studies using cortical thickness (CT) measures have shown thicker occipital cortex in early-blind (EB) individuals compared with sighted controls. We hypothesized that this finding reflects the crossmodal plasticity often observed in blind individuals and thus could reflect behavioral adaptations. To address this issue, CT measures in blind (early and late) and sighted subjects were obtained along with several auditory behavioral measures in an attempt to relate behavioral and neuroanatomical changes. Group contrasts confirmed previous results in showing thicker occipital cortex in the EB. Regression analyses between CT measures across the whole brain of all blind individuals with the behavioral scores from 2 tasks in which EB subjects were superior (pitch and melody discrimination) showed that CT of occipital areas was directly related to behavioral enhancements. These findings constitute a compelling demonstration that anatomical changes in occipital areas are directly related to heightened behavioral abilities in the blind and hence support the idea that these anatomical features reflect adaptive compensatory plasticity. PMID:22095215

  10. Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural variability in individualism/collectivism.

    PubMed

    Fincher, Corey L; Thornhill, Randy; Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark

    2008-06-01

    Pathogenic diseases impose selection pressures on the social behaviour of host populations. In humans (Homo sapiens), many psychological phenomena appear to serve an antipathogen defence function. One broad implication is the existence of cross-cultural differences in human cognition and behaviour contingent upon the relative presence of pathogens in the local ecology. We focus specifically on one fundamental cultural variable: differences in individualistic versus collectivist values. We suggest that specific behavioural manifestations of collectivism (e.g. ethnocentrism, conformity) can inhibit the transmission of pathogens; and so we hypothesize that collectivism (compared with individualism) will more often characterize cultures in regions that have historically had higher prevalence of pathogens. Drawing on epidemiological data and the findings of worldwide cross-national surveys of individualism/collectivism, our results support this hypothesis: the regional prevalence of pathogens has a strong positive correlation with cultural indicators of collectivism and a strong negative correlation with individualism. The correlations remain significant even when controlling for potential confounding variables. These results help to explain the origin of a paradigmatic cross-cultural difference, and reveal previously undocumented consequences of pathogenic diseases on the variable nature of human societies. PMID:18302996

  11. Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural variability in individualism/collectivism

    PubMed Central

    Fincher, Corey L; Thornhill, Randy; Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Pathogenic diseases impose selection pressures on the social behaviour of host populations. In humans (Homo sapiens), many psychological phenomena appear to serve an antipathogen defence function. One broad implication is the existence of cross-cultural differences in human cognition and behaviour contingent upon the relative presence of pathogens in the local ecology. We focus specifically on one fundamental cultural variable: differences in individualistic versus collectivist values. We suggest that specific behavioural manifestations of collectivism (e.g. ethnocentrism, conformity) can inhibit the transmission of pathogens; and so we hypothesize that collectivism (compared with individualism) will more often characterize cultures in regions that have historically had higher prevalence of pathogens. Drawing on epidemiological data and the findings of worldwide cross-national surveys of individualism/collectivism, our results support this hypothesis: the regional prevalence of pathogens has a strong positive correlation with cultural indicators of collectivism and a strong negative correlation with individualism. The correlations remain significant even when controlling for potential confounding variables. These results help to explain the origin of a paradigmatic cross-cultural difference, and reveal previously undocumented consequences of pathogenic diseases on the variable nature of human societies. PMID:18302996

  12. Connectivity Strength of Dissociable Striatal Tracts Predict Individual Differences in Temporal Discounting

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Christian A.; Schweitzer, Julie B.

    2014-01-01

    Large individual differences exist in the ability to delay gratification for the sake of satisfying longer-term goals. These individual differences are commonly assayed by studying intertemporal preferences, as revealed by choices between immediate and delayed rewards. In the brain, reward-based and goal-oriented decisions are believed to rely on the striatum and its interactions with other cortical and subcortical networks. However, it remains unknown which specific cortical-striatal tracts are involved in intertemporal decision making. We use connectivity analyses in both structural and functional MRI to further our understanding of the relationship between distinct corticostriatal networks and intertemporal preferences in humans. Our results revealed distinct striatal pathways that are differentially related to delay discounting. Structural and functional connectivity between striatum and lateral prefrontal cortex was associated with increased patience, whereas connectivity between subcortical areas and striatum was associated with increased impulsivity. These findings provide novel insights into how the anatomy and functioning of striatal circuits mediate individual differences in intertemporal choice. PMID:25080591

  13. Individual Differences in Striatum Activity to Food Commercials Predict Weight Gain in Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Yokum, Sonja; Gearhardt, Ashley N.; Harris, Jennifer L.; Brownell, Kelly D.; Stice, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Objective Adolescents view thousands of food commercials annually, but little is known about how individual differences in neural response to food commercials relate to weight gain. To add to our understanding of individual risk factors for unhealthy weight gain and environmental contributions to the obesity epidemic, we tested the associations between reward region (striatum and orbitofrontal cortex [OFC]) responsivity to food commercials and future change in Body Mass Index (BMI). Design and Methods Adolescents (N = 30) underwent a scan session at baseline while watching a television show edited to include 20 food commercials and 20 non-food commercials. BMI was measured at baseline and 1-year follow-up. Results Activation in the striatum, but not OFC, in response to food commercials relative to non-food commercials and in response to food commercials relative to the television show was positively associated with change in BMI over 1-year follow-up. Baseline BMI did not moderate these effects. Conclusions The results suggest that there are individual differences in neural susceptibility to food advertising. These findings highlight a potential mechanism for the impact of food marketing on adolescent obesity. PMID:25155745

  14. Inter-individual differences in the experience of negative emotion predict variations in functional brain architecture.

    PubMed

    Petrican, Raluca; Saverino, Cristina; Shayna Rosenbaum, R; Grady, Cheryl

    2015-12-01

    Current evidence suggests that two spatially distinct neuroanatomical networks, the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the default mode network (DMN), support externally and internally oriented cognition, respectively, and are functionally regulated by a third, frontoparietal control network (FPC). Interactions among these networks contribute to normal variations in cognitive functioning and to the aberrant affective profiles present in certain clinical conditions, such as major depression. Nevertheless, their links to non-clinical variations in affective functioning are still poorly understood. To address this issue, we used fMRI to measure the intrinsic functional interactions among these networks in a sample of predominantly younger women (N=162) from the Human Connectome Project. Consistent with the previously documented dichotomous motivational orientations (i.e., withdrawal versus approach) associated with sadness versus anger, we hypothesized that greater sadness would predict greater DMN (rather than DAN) functional dominance, whereas greater anger would predict the opposite. Overall, there was evidence of greater DAN (rather than DMN) functional dominance, but this pattern was modulated by current experience of specific negative emotions, as well as subclinical depressive and anxiety symptoms. Thus, greater levels of currently experienced sadness and subclinical depression independently predicted weaker DAN functional dominance (i.e., weaker DAN-FPC functional connectivity), likely reflecting reduced goal-directed attention towards the external perceptual environment. Complementarily, greater levels of currently experienced anger and subclinical anxiety predicted greater DAN functional dominance (i.e., greater DAN-FPC functional connectivity and, for anxiety only, also weaker DMN-FPC coupling). Our findings suggest that distinct affective states and subclinical mood symptoms have dissociable neural signatures, reflective of the symbiotic relationship

  15. Prediction of individual subject's age across the human lifespan using diffusion tensor imaging: a machine learning approach.

    PubMed

    Mwangi, Benson; Hasan, Khader M; Soares, Jair C

    2013-07-15

    Diffusion tensor imaging has the potential to be used as a neuroimaging marker of natural ageing and assist in elucidating trajectories of cerebral maturation and ageing. In this study, we applied a multivariate technique relevance vector regression (RVR) to predict individual subject's age using whole brain fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD) and radial diffusivity (RD) from a cohort of 188 subjects aged 4-85 years. High prediction accuracy as derived from Pearson correlation coefficient of actual versus predicted age (FA - r=0.870 p<0.0001; MD - r=0.896 p<0.0001; AD - r=0.895 p<0.0001; RD - r=0.899 p<0.0001) was achieved. Cerebral white-matter regions that contributed to these predictions include; corpus callosum, cingulum bundles, posterior longitudinal fasciculus and the cerebral peduncle. A post-hoc analysis of these regions showed that FA follows a nonlinear rational-quadratic trajectory across the lifespan peaking at approximately 21.8 years. The MD, RD and AD volumes were particularly useful for making predictions using grey matter cerebral regions. These results suggest that diffusion tensor imaging measurements can reliably predict individual subject's age and demonstrate that FA cerebral maturation and ageing patterns follow a non-linear trajectory with a noteworthy peaking age. These data will contribute to the understanding of neurobiology of cerebral maturation and ageing. Most notably, from a neuropsychiatric perspective our results may allow differentiation of cerebral changes that may occur due to natural maturation and ageing, and those due to developmental or neuropsychiatric disorders. PMID:23501046

  16. Disorder prediction-based construct optimization improves activity and catalytic efficiency of Bacillus naganoensis pullulanase.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xinye; Nie, Yao; Mu, Xiaoqing; Xu, Yan; Xiao, Rong

    2016-01-01

    Pullulanase is a well-known starch-debranching enzyme. However, the production level of pullulanase is yet low in both wide-type strains and heterologous expression systems. We predicted the disorder propensities of Bacillus naganoensis pullulanase (PUL) using the bioinformatics tool, Disorder Prediction Meta-Server. On the basis of disorder prediction, eight constructs, including PULΔN5, PULΔN22, PULΔN45, PULΔN64, PULΔN78 and PULΔN106 by deleting the first 5, 22, 45, 64, 78 and 106 residues from the N-terminus, and PULΔC9 and PULΔC36 by deleting the last 9 and 36 residues from the C-terminus, were cloned into the recombinant expression vector pET-28a-PelB and auto-induced in Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3) cells. All constructs were evaluated in production level, specific activities and kinetic parameters. Both PULΔN5 and PULΔN106 gave higher production levels of protein than the wide type and displayed increased specific activities. Kinetic studies showed that substrate affinities of the mutants were improved in various degrees and the catalytic efficiency of PULΔN5, PULΔN45, PULΔN78, PULΔN106 and PULΔC9 were enhanced. However, the truncated mutations did not change the advantageous properties of the enzyme involving optimum temperature and pH for further application. Therefore, Disorder prediction-based truncation would be helpful to efficiently improve the enzyme activity and catalytic efficiency. PMID:27091115

  17. Disorder prediction-based construct optimization improves activity and catalytic efficiency of Bacillus naganoensis pullulanase

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xinye; Nie, Yao; Mu, Xiaoqing; Xu, Yan; Xiao, Rong

    2016-01-01

    Pullulanase is a well-known starch-debranching enzyme. However, the production level of pullulanase is yet low in both wide-type strains and heterologous expression systems. We predicted the disorder propensities of Bacillus naganoensis pullulanase (PUL) using the bioinformatics tool, Disorder Prediction Meta-Server. On the basis of disorder prediction, eight constructs, including PULΔN5, PULΔN22, PULΔN45, PULΔN64, PULΔN78 and PULΔN106 by deleting the first 5, 22, 45, 64, 78 and 106 residues from the N-terminus, and PULΔC9 and PULΔC36 by deleting the last 9 and 36 residues from the C-terminus, were cloned into the recombinant expression vector pET-28a-PelB and auto-induced in Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3) cells. All constructs were evaluated in production level, specific activities and kinetic parameters. Both PULΔN5 and PULΔN106 gave higher production levels of protein than the wide type and displayed increased specific activities. Kinetic studies showed that substrate affinities of the mutants were improved in various degrees and the catalytic efficiency of PULΔN5, PULΔN45, PULΔN78, PULΔN106 and PULΔC9 were enhanced. However, the truncated mutations did not change the advantageous properties of the enzyme involving optimum temperature and pH for further application. Therefore, Disorder prediction-based truncation would be helpful to efficiently improve the enzyme activity and catalytic efficiency. PMID:27091115

  18. A universal and efficient method to compute maps from image-based prediction models.

    PubMed

    Sabuncu, Mert R

    2014-01-01

    Discriminative supervised learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines, are becoming increasingly popular in biomedical image computing. One of their main uses is to construct image-based prediction models, e.g., for computer aided diagnosis or "mind reading." A major challenge in these applications is the biological interpretation of the machine learning models, which can be arbitrarily complex functions of the input features (e.g., as induced by kernel-based methods). Recent work has proposed several strategies for deriving maps that highlight regions relevant for accurate prediction. Yet most of these methods o n strong assumptions about t he prediction model (e.g., linearity, sparsity) and/or data (e.g., Gaussianity), or fail to exploit the covariance structure in the data. In this work, we propose a computationally efficient and universal framework for quantifying associations captured by black box machine learning models. Furthermore, our theoretical perspective reveals that examining associations with predictions, in the absence of ground truth labels, can be very informative. We apply the proposed method to machine learning models trained to predict cognitive impairment from structural neuroimaging data. We demonstrate that our approach yields biologically meaningful maps of association. PMID:25320819

  19. Model-based evaluation of subsurface monitoring networks for improved efficiency and predictive certainty of regional groundwater models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.

    2012-04-01

    -specific prediction target under consideration. Therefore, the worth of individual observation locations may differ for different prediction targets. Our evaluation is based on predictions of lowland stream discharge resulting from changes in land use and irrigation in the upper Central Plains catchment. In our analysis, we adopt the model predictive uncertainty analysis method by Moore and Doherty (2005) which accounts for contributions from both measurement errors and uncertain structural heterogeneity. The method is robust and efficient due to a linearity assumption in the governing equations and readily implemented for application in the model-independent parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis toolkit PEST (Doherty, 2010). The proposed methods can be applied not only for the evaluation of monitoring networks, but also for the optimization of networks, to compare alternative monitoring strategies, as well as to identify best cost-benefit monitoring design even prior to any data acquisition.

  20. An Individual-Based Diploid Model Predicts Limited Conditions Under Which Stochastic Gene Expression Becomes Advantageous

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Tomotaka; Mineta, Katsuhiko; Osada, Naoki; Araki, Hitoshi

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies suggest the existence of a stochasticity in gene expression (SGE) in many organisms, and its non-negligible effect on their phenotype and fitness. To date, however, how SGE affects the key parameters of population genetics are not well understood. SGE can increase the phenotypic variation and act as a load for individuals, if they are at the adaptive optimum in a stable environment. On the other hand, part of the phenotypic variation caused by SGE might become advantageous if individuals at the adaptive optimum become genetically less-adaptive, for example due to an environmental change. Furthermore, SGE of unimportant genes might have little or no fitness consequences. Thus, SGE can be advantageous, disadvantageous, or selectively neutral depending on its context. In addition, there might be a genetic basis that regulates magnitude of SGE, which is often referred to as “modifier genes,” but little is known about the conditions under which such an SGE-modifier gene evolves. In the present study, we conducted individual-based computer simulations to examine these conditions in a diploid model. In the simulations, we considered a single locus that determines organismal fitness for simplicity, and that SGE on the locus creates fitness variation in a stochastic manner. We also considered another locus that modifies the magnitude of SGE. Our results suggested that SGE was always deleterious in stable environments and increased the fixation probability of deleterious mutations in this model. Even under frequently changing environmental conditions, only very strong natural selection made SGE adaptive. These results suggest that the evolution of SGE-modifier genes requires strict balance among the strength of natural selection, magnitude of SGE, and frequency of environmental changes. However, the degree of dominance affected the condition under which SGE becomes advantageous, indicating a better opportunity for the evolution of SGE in different genetic

  1. Child abuse predicts adult PTSD symptoms among individuals diagnosed with intellectual disabilities.

    PubMed

    Catani, Claudia; Sossalla, Iris M

    2015-01-01

    Prior research has shown that people with intellectual disabilities (ID) are more likely to experience child abuse as well as other forms of traumatic or negative events later in life compared to the general population. Little is known however, about the association of these experiences with adult mental health in intellectually disabled individuals. The present study aimed to assess whether child abuse in families and institutions as well as other types of adverse life events, were associated with current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression symptoms in individuals with ID. We conducted clinical interviews which included standardized self-report measures for childhood abuse, PTSD, and depression in an unselected sample of 56 persons with a medical diagnosis of ID who were attending a specialized welfare center. The frequency of traumatic experiences was very high, with physical and emotional child abuse being the most common trauma types. 87% of the persons reported at least one aversive experience on the family violence spectrum, and 50% of the sample reported a violent physical attack later in adulthood. 25% were diagnosed with PTSD and almost 27% had a critical score on the depression scale. Physical and emotional child abuse was positively correlated with the amount of institutional violence and the number of general traumatic events, whereas childhood sexual abuse was related to the experience of intimate partner violence in adult life. A linear regression model revealed child abuse in the family to be the only significant independent predictor of PTSD symptom severity. The current findings underscore the central role of child maltreatment in the increased risk of further victimization and in the development of mental health problems in adulthood in intellectually disabled individuals. Our data have important clinical implications and demonstrate the need for targeted prevention and intervention programs that are tailored to the specific needs

  2. Child abuse predicts adult PTSD symptoms among individuals diagnosed with intellectual disabilities

    PubMed Central

    Catani, Claudia; Sossalla, Iris M.

    2015-01-01

    Prior research has shown that people with intellectual disabilities (ID) are more likely to experience child abuse as well as other forms of traumatic or negative events later in life compared to the general population. Little is known however, about the association of these experiences with adult mental health in intellectually disabled individuals. The present study aimed to assess whether child abuse in families and institutions as well as other types of adverse life events, were associated with current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression symptoms in individuals with ID. We conducted clinical interviews which included standardized self-report measures for childhood abuse, PTSD, and depression in an unselected sample of 56 persons with a medical diagnosis of ID who were attending a specialized welfare center. The frequency of traumatic experiences was very high, with physical and emotional child abuse being the most common trauma types. 87% of the persons reported at least one aversive experience on the family violence spectrum, and 50% of the sample reported a violent physical attack later in adulthood. 25% were diagnosed with PTSD and almost 27% had a critical score on the depression scale. Physical and emotional child abuse was positively correlated with the amount of institutional violence and the number of general traumatic events, whereas childhood sexual abuse was related to the experience of intimate partner violence in adult life. A linear regression model revealed child abuse in the family to be the only significant independent predictor of PTSD symptom severity. The current findings underscore the central role of child maltreatment in the increased risk of further victimization and in the development of mental health problems in adulthood in intellectually disabled individuals. Our data have important clinical implications and demonstrate the need for targeted prevention and intervention programs that are tailored to the specific needs

  3. The effect of breed and individual heterosis on the feed efficiency, performance, and carcass characteristics of feedlot steers.

    PubMed

    Retallick, K M; Faulkner, D B; Rodriguez-Zas, S L; Nkrumah, J D; Shike, D W

    2013-11-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate maternal breed effects, direct breed effects, and individual heterosis on subsequent steer performance, carcass, and feed efficiency traits. This was a consecutive 2-yr trial using 158 steers. The same dam breeds, Angus (AN) and purebred Simmental (SM), were used both years. Also, the same AN and SM sires (n=11) were used both years. Steers were AN, SM, or AN×SM breed composition. Steers were managed similarly before weaning and early weaned at 56±9 d of age. Steers were then randomly allotted to pens and fed a common finishing ration. Contrasts were written to evaluate direct and maternal breed effects and individual heterosis in the PROC MIXED procedure of SAS (SAS Inst. Inc., Cary, NC) using dam breed, sire breed, and year as fixed effects. Simmental direct breed effect resulted in a 26 kg heavier initial BW (P<0.05) and a 46 kg heavier final BW (P<0.05). Simmental maternal breed effect increased initial BW by 43.5 kg (P<0.05). Dry matter intake was not impacted by direct breed effects, maternal breed effects, or individual heterosis. Individual heterosis did improve G:F 3.4% (P<0.05) and residual BW gain 0.048 kg/d (P<0.05). Residual intake and BW gain tended (P=0.07) to improve as a result of individual heterosis. Residual feed intake (RFI) was impacted by direct breed effect with SM cattle having a more desirable RFI (P=0.05). Angus direct breed effect increased backfat (P<0.05) and improved marbling score by 126 units (P<0.05). Simmental direct breed effect increased LM area (P<0.05), had the highest HCW at 410 kg (P<0.05), and had the most desirable yield grade at 2.74 (P<0.05). Individual heterosis improved marbling score (P=0.05). Maternal breed effect increased HCW (P<0.05) as a result of the SM dam. Direct breed effects were present for performance, feed efficiency measures, and carcass traits. Overall, heterosis impacted feedlot performance, carcass characteristics, and feed efficiency, which impacts beef

  4. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Hussien, Amr Elsayed M.; Furth, Christian; Schönberger, Stefan; Hundsdoerfer, Patrick; Steffen, Ingo G.; Amthauer, Holger; Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus

    2015-01-01

    Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV. PMID:25635760

  5. MOOD STATE PREDICTION FROM SPEECH OF VARYING ACOUSTIC QUALITY FOR INDIVIDUALS WITH BIPOLAR DISORDER

    PubMed Central

    Gideon, John; Provost, Emily Mower; McInnis, Melvin

    2016-01-01

    Speech contains patterns that can be altered by the mood of an individual. There is an increasing focus on automated and distributed methods to collect and monitor speech from large groups of patients suffering from mental health disorders. However, as the scope of these collections increases, the variability in the data also increases. This variability is due in part to the range in the quality of the devices, which in turn affects the quality of the recorded data, negatively impacting the accuracy of automatic assessment. It is necessary to mitigate variability effects in order to expand the impact of these technologies. This paper explores speech collected from phone recordings for analysis of mood in individuals with bipolar disorder. Two different phones with varying amounts of clipping, loudness, and noise are employed. We describe methodologies for use during preprocessing, feature extraction, and data modeling to correct these differences and make the devices more comparable. The results demonstrate that these pipeline modifications result in statistically significantly higher performance, which highlights the potential of distributed mental health systems. PMID:27570493

  6. Surface area of early visual cortex predicts individual speed of traveling waves during binocular rivalry.

    PubMed

    Genç, Erhan; Bergmann, Johanna; Singer, Wolf; Kohler, Axel

    2015-06-01

    Binocular rivalry ensues when different images are presented to the 2 eyes with conscious perception alternating between the possible interpretations. For large rivalry displays, perceptual transitions are initiated at one location and spread to other parts of the visual field, a phenomenon termed "traveling wave." Previous studies investigated the underlying neural mechanisms of the traveling wave and surmised that primary visual cortex might play an important role. We used magnetic resonance imaging and behavioral measures in humans to explore how interindividual differences in observers' subjective experience of the wave are related to anatomical characteristics of cortical regions. We measured wave speed in participants and confirmed the long-term stability of the individual values. Retinotopic mapping was employed to delineate borders of visual areas V1-V3 in order to determine surface area and cortical thickness in those regions. Only the surface areas of V1 and V2, but not V3 showed a correlation with wave speed. For individuals with larger V1/V2 area, the traveling wave needed longer to spread across the same distance in visual space. Our results highlight the role of early visual areas in mediating binocular rivalry and suggest possible mechanisms for the correlation between surface area and the traveling waves. PMID:24334918

  7. Individual differences in self-reported self-control predict successful emotion regulation.

    PubMed

    Paschke, Lena M; Dörfel, Denise; Steimke, Rosa; Trempler, Ima; Magrabi, Amadeus; Ludwig, Vera U; Schubert, Torsten; Stelzel, Christine; Walter, Henrik

    2016-08-01

    Both self-control and emotion regulation enable individuals to adapt to external circumstances and social contexts, and both are assumed to rely on the overlapping neural resources. Here, we tested whether high self-reported self-control is related to successful emotion regulation on the behavioral and neural level. One hundred eight participants completed three self-control questionnaires and regulated their negative emotions during functional magnetic resonance imaging using reappraisal (distancing). Trait self-control correlated positively with successful emotion regulation both subjectively and neurally, as indicated by online ratings of negative emotions and functional connectivity strength between the amygdala and prefrontal areas, respectively. This stronger overall connectivity of the left amygdala was related to more successful subjective emotion regulation. Comparing amygdala activity over time showed that high self-controllers successfully maintained down-regulation of the left amygdala over time, while low self-controllers failed to down-regulate towards the end of the experiment. This indicates that high self-controllers are better at maintaining a motivated state supporting emotion regulation over time. Our results support assumptions concerning a close relation of self-control and emotion regulation as two domains of behavioral control. They further indicate that individual differences in functional connectivity between task-related brain areas directly relate to differences in trait self-control. PMID:27013102

  8. Glutamate and Choline Levels Predict Individual Differences in Reading Ability in Emergent Readers

    PubMed Central

    Frost, Stephen J.; Rothman, Douglas L.; Hoeft, Fumiko; Del Tufo, Stephanie N.; Mason, Graeme F.; Molfese, Peter J.; Mencl, W. Einar; Grigorenko, Elena L.; Landi, Nicole; Preston, Jonathan L.; Jacobsen, Leslie; Seidenberg, Mark S.; Fulbright, Robert K.

    2014-01-01

    Reading disability is a brain-based difficulty in acquiring fluent reading skills that affects significant numbers of children. Although neuroanatomical and neurofunctional networks involved in typical and atypical reading are increasingly well characterized, the underlying neurochemical bases of individual differences in reading development are virtually unknown. The current study is the first to examine neurochemistry in children during the critical period in which the neurocircuits that support skilled reading are still developing. In a longitudinal pediatric sample of emergent readers whose reading indicators range on a continuum from impaired to superior, we examined the relationship between individual differences in reading and reading-related skills and concentrations of neurometabolites measured using magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Both continuous and group analyses revealed that choline and glutamate concentrations were negatively correlated with reading and related linguistic measures in phonology and vocabulary (such that higher concentrations were associated with poorer performance). Correlations with behavioral scores obtained 24 months later reveal stability for the relationship between glutamate and reading performance. Implications for neurodevelopmental models of reading and reading disability are discussed, including possible links of choline and glutamate to white matter anomalies and hyperexcitability. These findings point to new directions for research on gene-brain-behavior pathways in human studies of reading disability. PMID:24623786

  9. Individual differences in anxiety predict neural measures of visual working memory for untrustworthy faces.

    PubMed

    Meconi, Federica; Luria, Roy; Sessa, Paola

    2014-12-01

    When facing strangers, one of the first evaluations people perform is to implicitly assess their trustworthiness. However, the underlying processes supporting trustworthiness appraisal are poorly understood. We hypothesized that visual working memory (VWM) maintains online face representations that are sensitive to physical cues of trustworthiness, and that differences among individuals in representing untrustworthy faces are associated with individual differences in anxiety. Participants performed a change detection task that required encoding and maintaining for a short interval the identity of one face parametrically manipulated to be either trustworthy or untrustworthy. The sustained posterior contralateral negativity (SPCN), an event-related component (ERP) time-locked to the onset of the face, was used to index the resolution of face representations in VWM. Results revealed greater SPCN amplitudes for trustworthy faces when compared with untrustworthy faces, indicating that VWM is sensitive to physical cues of trustworthiness, even in the absence of explicit trustworthiness appraisal. In addition, differences in SPCN amplitude between trustworthy and untrustworthy faces correlated with participants' anxiety, indicating that healthy college students with sub-clinical high anxiety levels represented untrustworthy faces in greater detail compared with students with sub-clinical low anxiety levels. This pattern of findings is discussed in terms of the high flexibility of aversive/avoidance and appetitive/approach motivational systems. PMID:24493843

  10. Predicting individual action switching in covert and continuous interactive tasks using the fluid events model

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Radvansky, Gabriel A.; D’Mello, Sidney K.; Abbott, Robert G.; Bixler, Robert E.

    2016-01-27

    The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covertmore » event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Hence, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.« less

  11. Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model

    PubMed Central

    Radvansky, Gabriel A.; D’Mello, Sidney K.; Abbott, Robert G.; Bixler, Robert E.

    2016-01-01

    The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events. PMID:26858673

  12. Variability in Cadence During Forced Cycling Predicts Motor Improvement in Individuals With Parkinson’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Ridgel, Angela L.; Abdar, Hassan Mohammadi; Alberts, Jay L.; Discenzo, Fred M.; Loparo, Kenneth A.

    2014-01-01

    Variability in severity and progression of Parkinson’s disease symptoms makes it challenging to design therapy interventions that provide maximal benefit. Previous studies showed that forced cycling, at greater pedaling rates, results in greater improvements in motor function than voluntary cycling. The precise mechanism for differences in function following exercise is unknown. We examined the complexity of biomechanical and physiological features of forced and voluntary cycling and correlated these features to improvements in motor function as measured by the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Heart rate, cadence, and power were analyzed using entropy signal processing techniques. Pattern variability in heart rate and power were greater in the voluntary group when compared to forced group. In contrast, variability in cadence was higher during forced cycling. UPDRS Motor III scores predicted from the pattern variability data were highly correlated to measured scores in the forced group. This study shows how time series analysis methods of biomechanical and physiological parameters of exercise can be used to predict improvements in motor function. This knowledge will be important in the development of optimal exercise-based rehabilitation programs for Parkinson’s disease. PMID:23144045

  13. Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model.

    PubMed

    Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney K; Abbott, Robert G; Bixler, Robert E

    2016-01-01

    The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant's current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person's prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events. PMID:26858673

  14. Serum Uric Acid Predicts Progression of Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis in Individuals Without Renal Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ticiana C.; Maahs, David M.; Johnson, Richard J.; Jalal, Diana I.; Kinney, Gregory L.; Rivard, Christopher; Rewers, Marian; Snell-Bergeon, Janet K.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine uric acid (UA) as a possible predictor of the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) using data from the prospective Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes (CACTI) Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS CAC was measured by electron beam tomography at the baseline and at a follow-up 6.0 ± 0.5 years later. The study population included 443 participants with type 1 diabetes and 526 control subjects who were free of diagnosed coronary artery disease at baseline. The presence of renal disease was defined by the presence of albuminuria and/or low glomerular filtration rate. RESULTS In subjects without renal disease, serum UA predicted CAC progression (odds ratio 1.30 [95% CI 1.07–1.58], P = 0.007) independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes and the presence of metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Serum UA levels predict the progression of coronary atherosclerosis and may be useful in identifying who is at risk for vascular disease in the absence of significant chronic kidney disease. PMID:20798338

  15. Eye Movements during Auditory Attention Predict Individual Differences in Dorsal Attention Network Activity

    PubMed Central

    Braga, Rodrigo M.; Fu, Richard Z.; Seemungal, Barry M.; Wise, Richard J. S.; Leech, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The neural mechanisms supporting auditory attention are not fully understood. A dorsal frontoparietal network of brain regions is thought to mediate the spatial orienting of attention across all sensory modalities. Key parts of this network, the frontal eye fields (FEF) and the superior parietal lobes (SPL), contain retinotopic maps and elicit saccades when stimulated. This suggests that their recruitment during auditory attention might reflect crossmodal oculomotor processes; however this has not been confirmed experimentally. Here we investigate whether task-evoked eye movements during an auditory task can predict the magnitude of activity within the dorsal frontoparietal network. A spatial and non-spatial listening task was used with on-line eye-tracking and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). No visual stimuli or cues were used. The auditory task elicited systematic eye movements, with saccade rate and gaze position predicting attentional engagement and the cued sound location, respectively. Activity associated with these separate aspects of evoked eye-movements dissociated between the SPL and FEF. However these observed eye movements could not account for all the activation in the frontoparietal network. Our results suggest that the recruitment of the SPL and FEF during attentive listening reflects, at least partly, overt crossmodal oculomotor processes during non-visual attention. Further work is needed to establish whether the network’s remaining contribution to auditory attention is through covert crossmodal processes, or is directly involved in the manipulation of auditory information. PMID:27242465

  16. An efficient artificial bee colony algorithm with application to nonlinear predictive control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ait Sahed, Oussama; Kara, Kamel; Benyoucef, Abousoufyane; Laid Hadjili, Mohamed

    2016-05-01

    In this paper a constrained nonlinear predictive control algorithm, that uses the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm to solve the optimization problem, is proposed. The main objective is to derive a simple and efficient control algorithm that can solve the nonlinear constrained optimization problem with minimal computational time. Indeed, a modified version, enhancing the exploring and the exploitation capabilities, of the ABC algorithm is proposed and used to design a nonlinear constrained predictive controller. This version allows addressing the premature and the slow convergence drawbacks of the standard ABC algorithm, using a modified search equation, a well-known organized distribution mechanism for the initial population and a new equation for the limit parameter. A convergence statistical analysis of the proposed algorithm, using some well-known benchmark functions is presented and compared with several other variants of the ABC algorithm. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm in solving engineering problems, the constrained nonlinear predictive control of the model of a Multi-Input Multi-Output industrial boiler is considered. The control performances of the proposed ABC algorithm-based controller are also compared to those obtained using some variants of the ABC algorithms.

  17. A polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system for efficient parameter inference and robust uncertainty assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Huang, W.

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents a polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system (PCEHPS) for an efficient and robust uncertainty assessment of model parameters and predictions, in which possibilistic reasoning is infused into probabilistic parameter inference with simultaneous consideration of randomness and fuzziness. The PCEHPS is developed through a two-stage factorial polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework, which consists of an ensemble of PCEs to approximate the behavior of the hydrologic model, significantly speeding up the exhaustive sampling of the parameter space. Multiple hypothesis testing is then conducted to construct an ensemble of reduced-dimensionality PCEs with only the most influential terms, which is meaningful for achieving uncertainty reduction and further acceleration of parameter inference. The PCEHPS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. A detailed comparison between the HYMOD hydrologic model, the ensemble of PCEs, and the ensemble of reduced PCEs is performed in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal temporal and spatial variations in parameter sensitivities due to the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems, and the effects (magnitude and direction) of parametric interactions depending on different hydrological metrics. The case study demonstrates that the PCEHPS is capable not only of capturing both expert knowledge and probabilistic information in the calibration process, but also of implementing an acceleration of more than 10 times faster than the hydrologic model without compromising the predictive accuracy.

  18. Shrimp predation on 0-group plaice: contrasts between field data and predictions of an individual-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burrows, Michael T.; Gontarek, Steven J.; Nash, Richard D. M.; Gibson, Robin N.

    2001-06-01

    An individual-based model has been used to predict the effects of size-dependent predation by shrimp Crangon crangon on populations of newly settled 0-group plaice Pleuronectes platessa. The model predicted changes in population size and thus mortality rate of plaice during settlement and the following period until the plaice reached 30 mm in length and were invulnerable to further shrimp predation. Population parameters derived from seven years' catch data for 0-group plaice and shrimp from the west coast of Scotland were supplied to the model for direct comparison of predicted and observed mortality rates for each of the seven years. The contrast of predicted and observed mortality was used to test the hypothesis that predation by shrimp is a major factor regulating populations of juvenile plaice. There was no evidence for control of plaice populations by shrimp predation at the study site, since a negative relationship between plaice mortality and shrimp density was observed. Alternative explanations for the divergence of prediction and observations included (i) a general failure of the model to adequately describe predator and prey populations, (ii) limited effects of consumption of plaice by shrimp, and (iii) responses of both species to a third factor such as temperature producing an apparent association of survival and recruitment in the respective species.

  19. An iso-deviant strategy for efficient ambient noise predictions with EAGLE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rike, Erik R.; Delbalzo, Donald R.

    2001-05-01

    Transmission loss (TL) computations in littoral areas require a dense spatial and azimuthal grid to achieve acceptable accuracy and detail, which is very slow. This problem of accuracy versus speed led to a new concept, OGRES (Objective Grid/Radials using Environmentally sensitive Selection), which produces sparse, irregular acoustic grids, with controlled accuracy. Recent work to further increase accuracy and efficiency with better metrics and interpolation led to EAGLE (Efficient Acoustic Gridder for Littoral Environments). On each iteration, EAGLE produces an acoustic field with approximately constant spatial uncertainty (hence, iso-deviance), yielding TL predictions with ever-increasing resolution and accuracy. This work adapts EAGLE to ambient noise computations. The Dynamic Ambient Noise Model (DANM) allows accurate, detailed estimation of the mean and variance of ambient noise in both space and time, but its TL computations are too slow for many applications. In the present work, a series of EAGLE acoustic field predictions was used by DANM (and compared to the dense full-grid solution) to determine the relationship between transmission loss uncertainty and noise-field uncertainty for a complex littoral area. An example is presented where approximately an order of magnitude efficiency improvement (over regular grids) is demonstrated. [Work sponsored by ONR under the LADC project.

  20. Adaptive Measurement of Well-Being: Maximizing Efficiency and Optimizing User Experience during Individual Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kraatz, Miriam; Sears, Lindsay E; Coberley, Carter R; Pope, James E

    2016-08-01

    Well-being is linked to important societal factors such as health care costs and productivity and has experienced a surge in development activity of both theories and measurement. This study builds on validation of the Well-Being 5 survey and for the first time applies Item Response Theory, a modern and flexible measurement paradigm, to form the basis of adaptive population well-being measurement. Adaptive testing allows survey questions to be administered selectively, thereby reducing the number of questions required of the participant. After the graded response model was fit to a sample of size N = 12,035, theta scores were estimated based on both the full-item bank and a simulation of Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). Comparisons of these 2 sets of score estimates with each other and of their correlations with external outcomes of job performance, absenteeism, and hospital admissions demonstrate that the CAT well-being scores maintain accuracy and validity. The simulation indicates that the average survey taker can expect a reduction in number of items administered during the CAT process of almost 50%. An increase in efficiency of this extent is of considerable value because of the time savings during the administration of the survey and the potential improvement of user experience, which in turn can help secure the success of a total population-based well-being improvement program. (Population Health Management 2016;19:284-290). PMID:26674396

  1. Adaptive Measurement of Well-Being: Maximizing Efficiency and Optimizing User Experience during Individual Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Kraatz, Miriam; Coberley, Carter R.; Pope, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Well-being is linked to important societal factors such as health care costs and productivity and has experienced a surge in development activity of both theories and measurement. This study builds on validation of the Well-Being 5 survey and for the first time applies Item Response Theory, a modern and flexible measurement paradigm, to form the basis of adaptive population well-being measurement. Adaptive testing allows survey questions to be administered selectively, thereby reducing the number of questions required of the participant. After the graded response model was fit to a sample of size N = 12,035, theta scores were estimated based on both the full-item bank and a simulation of Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). Comparisons of these 2 sets of score estimates with each other and of their correlations with external outcomes of job performance, absenteeism, and hospital admissions demonstrate that the CAT well-being scores maintain accuracy and validity. The simulation indicates that the average survey taker can expect a reduction in number of items administered during the CAT process of almost 50%. An increase in efficiency of this extent is of considerable value because of the time savings during the administration of the survey and the potential improvement of user experience, which in turn can help secure the success of a total population-based well-being improvement program. (Population Health Management 2016;19:284–290) PMID:26674396

  2. Mitochondrial Efficiency-Dependent Viability of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Mutants Carrying Individual Electron Transport Chain Component Deletions.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Young-Yon; Choi, Kyung-Mi; Cho, ChangYeon; Lee, Cheol-Koo

    2015-12-31

    Mitochondria play a crucial role in eukaryotic cells; the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) generates adenosine triphosphate (ATP), which serves as an energy source for numerous critical cellular activities. However, the ETC also generates deleterious reactive oxygen species (ROS) as a natural byproduct of oxidative phosphorylation. ROS are considered the major cause of aging because they damage proteins, lipids, and DNA by oxidation. We analyzed the chronological life span, growth phenotype, mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), and intracellular ATP and mitochondrial superoxide levels of 33 single ETC component-deleted strains during the chronological aging process. Among the ETC mutant strains, 14 (sdh1Δ, sdh2Δ, sdh4Δ, cor1Δ, cyt1Δ, qcr7Δ, qcr8Δ, rip1Δ, cox6Δ, cox7Δ, cox9Δ, atp4Δ, atp7Δ, and atp17Δ) showed a significantly shorter life span. The deleted genes encode important elements of the ETC components succinate dehydrogenase (complex II) and cytochrome c oxidase (complex IV), and some of the deletions lead to structural instability of the membrane-F1F0-ATP synthase due to mutations in the stator stalk (complex V). These short-lived strains generated higher superoxide levels and produced lower ATP levels without alteration of MMP. In summary, ETC mutations decreased the life span of yeast due to impaired mitochondrial efficiency. PMID:26608359

  3. Prediction of individual differences in risky behavior in young adults via variations in local brain structure

    PubMed Central

    Nasiriavanaki, Zahra; ArianNik, Mohsen; Abbassian, Abdolhosein; Mahmoudi, Elham; Roufigari, Neda; Shahzadi, Sohrab; Nasiriavanaki, Mohammadreza; Bahrami, Bahador

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the problem of how inter-individual differences play a role in risk-taking behavior has become a much debated issue. We investigated this problem based on the well-known balloon analog risk task (BART) in 48 healthy subjects in which participants inflate a virtual balloon opting for a higher score in the face of a riskier chance of the balloon explosion. In this study, based on a structural Voxel Based Morphometry (VBM) technique we demonstrate a significant positive correlation between BART score and size of the gray matter volume in the anterior insula in riskier subjects. Although the anterior insula is among the candidate brain areas that were involved in the risk taking behavior in fMRI studies, here based on our structural data it is the only area that was significantly related to structural variation among different subjects. PMID:26500482

  4. Orbital prefrontal cortex volume predicts social network size: an imaging study of individual differences in humans

    PubMed Central

    Powell, Joanne; Lewis, Penelope A.; Roberts, Neil; García-Fiñana, Marta; Dunbar, R. I. M.

    2012-01-01

    The social brain hypothesis, an explanation for the unusually large brains of primates, posits that the size of social group typical of a species is directly related to the volume of its neocortex. To test whether this hypothesis also applies at the within-species level, we applied the Cavalieri method of stereology in conjunction with point counting on magnetic resonance images to determine the volume of prefrontal cortex (PFC) subfields, including dorsal and orbital regions. Path analysis in a sample of 40 healthy adult humans revealed a significant linear relationship between orbital (but not dorsal) PFC volume and the size of subjects' social networks that was mediated by individual intentionality (mentalizing) competences. The results support the social brain hypothesis by indicating a relationship between PFC volume and social network size that applies within species, and, more importantly, indicates that the relationship is mediated by social cognitive skills. PMID:22298855

  5. Individual Differences in the Multisensory Temporal Binding Window Predict Susceptibility to Audiovisual Illusions

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson, Ryan A.; Zemtsov, Raquel K.; Wallace, Mark T.

    2013-01-01

    Human multisensory systems are known to bind inputs from the different sensory modalities into a unified percept, a process that leads to measurable behavioral benefits. This integrative process can be observed through multisensory illusions, including the McGurk effect and the sound-induced flash illusion, both of which demonstrate the ability of one sensory modality to modulate perception in a second modality. Such multisensory integration is highly dependent upon the temporal relationship of the different sensory inputs, with perceptual binding occurring within a limited range of asynchronies known as the temporal binding window (TBW). Previous studies have shown that this window is highly variable across individuals, but it is unclear how these variations in the TBW relate to an individual’s ability to integrate multisensory cues. Here we provide evidence linking individual differences in multisensory temporal processes to differences in the individual’s audiovisual integration of illusory stimuli. Our data provide strong evidence that the temporal processing of multiple sensory signals and the merging of multiple signals into a single, unified perception, are highly related. Specifically, the width of right side of an individuals’ TBW, where the auditory stimulus follows the visual, is significantly correlated with the strength of illusory percepts, as indexed via both an increase in the strength of binding synchronous sensory signals and in an improvement in correctly dissociating asynchronous signals. These findings are discussed in terms of their possible neurobiological basis, relevance to the development of sensory integration, and possible importance for clinical conditions in which there is growing evidence that multisensory integration is compromised. PMID:22390292

  6. Do the Big Five personality traits predict individual differences in the left cheek bias for emotion perception?

    PubMed

    Galea, Samantha; Lindell, Annukka K

    2016-01-01

    Like language, emotion is a lateralized function. Because the right hemisphere typically dominates emotion processing, people express stronger emotion on the left side of their face. This prompts a left cheek bias: we offer the left cheek to express emotion and rate left cheek portraits more emotionally expressive than right cheek portraits. Though the majority of the population show this left cheek bias (60-70%), individual differences exist but remain largely unexplained. Given that people with higher self-rated emotional expressivity show a stronger left cheek bias, personality variables associated with increased emotional expressivity and emotional intelligence, such as extraversion and openness, may help account for individual differences. The present study thus examined whether the Big Five traits predict left cheek preferences. Participants (M = 58, F = 116) completed the NEO-Five Factor Personality Inventory (NEO-FFI) [Costa, P. T. J., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). NEO PI-R professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources] and viewed pairs of left and right cheek images (half mirror-reversed); participants made forced-choice decisions, indicating which image in each pair looked happier. Hierarchical regression indicated that neither trait extraversion nor openness predicted left cheek selections, with NEO-FFI personality subscales accounting for negligible variance in preferences. As the Big Five traits have been discounted, exploration of other potential contributors to individual differences in the left cheek bias is clearly needed. PMID:26931139

  7. A hyperspectral imaging system for an accurate prediction of the above-ground biomass of individual rice plants.

    PubMed

    Feng, Hui; Jiang, Ni; Huang, Chenglong; Fang, Wei; Yang, Wanneng; Chen, Guoxing; Xiong, Lizhong; Liu, Qian

    2013-09-01

    Biomass is an important component of the plant phenomics, and the existing methods for biomass estimation for individual plants are either destructive or lack accuracy. In this study, a hyperspectral imaging system was developed for the accurate prediction of the above-ground biomass of individual rice plants in the visible and near-infrared spectral region. First, the structure of the system and the influence of various parameters on the camera acquisition speed were established. Then the system was used to image 152 rice plants, which selected from the rice mini-core collection, in two stages, the tillering to elongation (T-E) stage and the booting to heading (B-H) stage. Several variables were extracted from the images. Following, linear stepwise regression analysis and 5-fold cross-validation were used to select effective variables for model construction and test the stability of the model, respectively. For the T-E stage, the R(2) value was 0.940 for the fresh weight (FW) and 0.935 for the dry weight (DW). For the B-H stage, the R(2) value was 0.891 for the FW and 0.783 for the DW. Moreover, estimations of the biomass using visible light images were also calculated. These comparisons showed that hyperspectral imaging performed better than the visible light imaging. Therefore, this study provides not only a stable hyperspectral imaging platform but also an accurate and nondestructive method for the prediction of biomass for individual rice plants. PMID:24089866

  8. Prediction of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Carrión, Ricardo E.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Goldberg, Terry E.; Auther, Andrea M.; Olsen, Ruth H.; Olvet, Doreen M.; Correll, Christoph U.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    Importance A major public health concern associated with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders is the long-term disability that involves impaired cognition, lack of social support, and an inability to function independently in the community. A critical goal of early detection and intervention studies in psychosis is therefore to understand the factors leading to this often profound impairment. Objective To develop a predictive model of functional (social and role) outcome in a clinical high-risk sample for psychosis. Design Prospective, naturalistic, longitudinal 3- to 5-year follow-up study. Setting The Recognition and Prevention Program in New York, a research clinic located in the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. Participants One hundred one treatment-seeking patients at clinical high risk for psychosis. Ninety-two (91%) were followed up prospectively for a mean (SD) of 3 (1.6) years. Intervention Neurocognitive and clinical assessment. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome variables were social and role functioning at the last follow-up visit. Results Poor social outcome was predicted by reduced processing speed (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% CI, 1.050-1.823; P = .02), impaired social functioning at baseline (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.258-2.732; P = .002), and total disorganized symptoms (OR, 5.06; 95% CI, 1.548-16.527; P = .007). Reduced performance on tests for verbal memory (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.169-2.594; P = .006), role functioning at baseline (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.053-1.711; P = .02), and motor disturbances (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.060-2.969; P = .03) predicted role outcome. The areas under the curve for the social and role prediction models were 0.824 (95% CI, 0.736-0.913; P < .001) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87; P < .001), respectively, demonstrating a high discriminative ability. In addition, poor functional outcomes were not entirely dependent on the development of psychosis, because 40.3% and 45.5% of nonconverters at clinical high risk had poor social

  9. An efficient method for isolating individual long-chain alkenones for compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis.

    PubMed

    D'Andrea, William J; Liu, Zhonghui; Da Rosa Alexandre, Marcelo; Wattley, Sarah; Herbert, Timothy D; Huang, Yongsong

    2007-05-01

    Hydrogen isotope ratios (2H/H or D/H) of long-chain unsaturated ketones (alkenones) preserved in lake and marine sediments hold great promise for paleoclimate studies. However, compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis of individual alkenones has not been possible due to chromatographic coelution of alkenones with the same carbon chain length but different numbers of double bonds. Published studies have only reported the deltaD values of the mixture of coeluting alkenones. We developed an efficient procedure to isolate individual alkenones based on double-bond numbers using silica gel impregnated with silver nitrate. The chromatographic procedure is simple, inexpensive, and highly reproducible, offers 87-100% sample recovery, and allows for the first time hydrogen isotopic measurement on individual alkenones. deltaD values of specific di-, tri- and tetraunsaturated C37 alkenones produced by an Emiliania huxleyi culture, as well as those isolated from Greenland lake sediments, differ consecutively by 43-65 per thousand. These findings suggest that alkenones with different numbers of carbon-carbon double bonds express significantly different deltaD values and that coelution of different alkenones may lead to erroneous source water deltaD reconstructions. Our alkenone isolation approach opens a new avenue for paleoclimate reconstructions using hydrogen isotope ratios of individual alkenones. PMID:17391004

  10. Time and Space Efficient RNA-RNA Interaction Prediction via Sparse Folding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salari, Raheleh; Möhl, Mathias; Will, Sebastian; Sahinalp, S. Cenk; Backofen, Rolf

    In the past years, a large set of new regulatory ncRNAs have been identified, but the number of experimentally verified targets is considerably low. Thus, computational target prediction methods are on high demand. Whereas all previous approaches for predicting a general joint structure have a complexity of O(n 6) running time and O(n 4) space, a more time and space efficient interaction prediction that is able to handle complex joint structures is necessary for genome-wide target prediction problems. In this paper we show how to reduce both the time and space complexity of the RNA-RNA interaction prediction problem as described by Alkan et al. [1] via dynamic programming sparsification - which allows to discard large portions of DP tables without loosing optimality. Applying sparsification techniques reduces the complexity of the original algorithm from O(n 6) time and O(n 4) space to O(n 4 ψ(n)) time and O(n 2 ψ(n) + n 3) space for some function ψ(n), which turns out to have small values for the range of n that we encounter in practice. Under the assumption that the polymer-zeta property holds for RNA-structures, we demonstrate that ψ(n) = O(n) on average, resulting in a linear time and space complexity improvement over the original algorithm. We evaluate our sparsified algorithm for RNA-RNA interaction prediction by total free energy minimization, based on the energy model of Chitsaz et al.[2], on a set of known interactions. Our results confirm the significant reduction of time and space requirements in practice.

  11. Ultralow mode-volume photonic crystal nanobeam cavities for high-efficiency coupling to individual carbon nanotube emitters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miura, R.; Imamura, S.; Ohta, R.; Ishii, A.; Liu, X.; Shimada, T.; Iwamoto, S.; Arakawa, Y.; Kato, Y. K.

    2014-11-01

    The unique emission properties of single-walled carbon nanotubes are attractive for achieving increased functionality in integrated photonics. In addition to being room-temperature telecom-band emitters that can be directly grown on silicon, they are ideal for coupling to nanoscale photonic structures. Here we report on high-efficiency coupling of individual air-suspended carbon nanotubes to silicon photonic crystal nanobeam cavities. Photoluminescence images of dielectric- and air-mode cavities reflect their distinctly different mode profiles and show that fields in the air are important for coupling. We find that the air-mode cavities couple more efficiently, and estimated spontaneous emission coupling factors reach a value as high as 0.85. Our results demonstrate advantages of ultralow mode-volumes in air-mode cavities for coupling to low-dimensional nanoscale emitters.

  12. Ultralow mode-volume photonic crystal nanobeam cavities for high-efficiency coupling to individual carbon nanotube emitters

    PubMed Central

    Miura, R.; Imamura, S.; Ohta, R.; Ishii, A.; Liu, X.; Shimada, T.; Iwamoto, S.; Arakawa, Y.; Kato, Y. K.

    2014-01-01

    The unique emission properties of single-walled carbon nanotubes are attractive for achieving increased functionality in integrated photonics. In addition to being room-temperature telecom-band emitters that can be directly grown on silicon, they are ideal for coupling to nanoscale photonic structures. Here we report on high-efficiency coupling of individual air-suspended carbon nanotubes to silicon photonic crystal nanobeam cavities. Photoluminescence images of dielectric- and air-mode cavities reflect their distinctly different mode profiles and show that fields in the air are important for coupling. We find that the air-mode cavities couple more efficiently, and estimated spontaneous emission coupling factors reach a value as high as 0.85. Our results demonstrate advantages of ultralow mode-volumes in air-mode cavities for coupling to low-dimensional nanoscale emitters. PMID:25420679

  13. Controlled formation of polymer nanocapsules with high diffusion-barrier properties and prediction of encapsulation efficiency.

    PubMed

    Hofmeister, Ines; Landfester, Katharina; Taden, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Polymer nanocapsules with high diffusion-barrier performance were designed following simple thermodynamic considerations. Hindered diffusion of the enclosed material leads to high encapsulation efficiencies (EEs), which was demonstrated based on the encapsulation of highly volatile compounds of different chemical natures. Low interactions between core and shell materials are key factors to achieve phase separation and a high diffusion barrier of the resulting polymeric shell. These interactions can be characterized and quantified using the Hansen solubility parameters. A systematic study of our copolymer system revealed a linear relationship between the Hansen parameter for hydrogen bonding (δh ) and encapsulation efficiencies which enables the prediction of encapsulated amounts for any material. Furthermore EEs of poorly encapsulated materials can be increased by mixing them with a mediator compound to give lower overall δh values. PMID:25363542

  14. Individual Differences in Holistic Processing Predict the Own-Race Advantage in Recognition Memory

    PubMed Central

    DeGutis, Joseph; Mercado, Rogelio J.; Wilmer, Jeremy; Rosenblatt, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Individuals are consistently better at recognizing own-race faces compared to other-race faces (other-race effect, ORE). One popular hypothesis is that this recognition memory ORE is caused by differential own- and other-race holistic processing, the simultaneous integration of part and configural face information into a coherent whole. Holistic processing may create a more rich, detailed memory representation of own-race faces compared to other-race faces. Despite several studies showing that own-race faces are processed more holistically than other-race faces, studies have yet to link the holistic processing ORE and the recognition memory ORE. In the current study, we sought to use a more valid method of analyzing individual differences in holistic processing by using regression to statistically remove the influence of the control condition (part trials in the part-whole task) from the condition of interest (whole trials in the part-whole task). We also employed regression to separately examine the two components of the ORE: own-race advantage (regressing other-race from own-race performance) and other-race decrement (regressing own-race from other-race performance). First, we demonstrated that own-race faces were processed more holistically than other-race faces, particularly the eye region. Notably, using regression, we showed a significant association between the own-race advantage in recognition memory and the own-race advantage in holistic processing and that these associations were weaker when examining the other-race decrement. We also demonstrated that performance on own- and other-race faces across all of our tasks was highly correlated, suggesting that the differences we found between own- and other-race faces are quantitative rather than qualitative. Together, this suggests that own- and other-race faces recruit largely similar mechanisms, that own-race faces more thoroughly engage holistic processing, and that this greater engagement of holistic

  15. Individual differences in holistic processing predict the own-race advantage in recognition memory.

    PubMed

    Degutis, Joseph; Mercado, Rogelio J; Wilmer, Jeremy; Rosenblatt, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Individuals are consistently better at recognizing own-race faces compared to other-race faces (other-race effect, ORE). One popular hypothesis is that this recognition memory ORE is caused by differential own- and other-race holistic processing, the simultaneous integration of part and configural face information into a coherent whole. Holistic processing may create a more rich, detailed memory representation of own-race faces compared to other-race faces. Despite several studies showing that own-race faces are processed more holistically than other-race faces, studies have yet to link the holistic processing ORE and the recognition memory ORE. In the current study, we sought to use a more valid method of analyzing individual differences in holistic processing by using regression to statistically remove the influence of the control condition (part trials in the part-whole task) from the condition of interest (whole trials in the part-whole task). We also employed regression to separately examine the two components of the ORE: own-race advantage (regressing other-race from own-race performance) and other-race decrement (regressing own-race from other-race performance). First, we demonstrated that own-race faces were processed more holistically than other-race faces, particularly the eye region. Notably, using regression, we showed a significant association between the own-race advantage in recognition memory and the own-race advantage in holistic processing and that these associations were weaker when examining the other-race decrement. We also demonstrated that performance on own- and other-race faces across all of our tasks was highly correlated, suggesting that the differences we found between own- and other-race faces are quantitative rather than qualitative. Together, this suggests that own- and other-race faces recruit largely similar mechanisms, that own-race faces more thoroughly engage holistic processing, and that this greater engagement of holistic

  16. Interrelationships between trait anxiety, situational stress and mental effort predict phonological processing efficiency, but not effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Elizabeth J; Edwards, Mark S; Lyvers, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Attentional control theory (ACT) describes the mechanisms associated with the relationship between anxiety and cognitive performance. We investigated the relationship between cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress and mental effort on phonological performance using a simple (forward-) and complex (backward-) word span task. Ninety undergraduate students participated in the study. Predictor variables were cognitive trait anxiety, indexed using questionnaire scores; situational stress, manipulated using ego threat instructions; and perceived level of mental effort, measured using a visual analogue scale. Criterion variables (a) performance effectiveness (accuracy) and (b) processing efficiency (accuracy divided by response time) were analyzed in separate multiple moderated-regression analyses. The results revealed (a) no relationship between the predictors and performance effectiveness, and (b) a significant 3-way interaction on processing efficiency for both the simple and complex tasks, such that at higher effort, trait anxiety and situational stress did not predict processing efficiency, whereas at lower effort, higher trait anxiety was associated with lower efficiency at high situational stress, but not at low situational stress. Our results were in full support of the assumptions of ACT and implications for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27045685

  17. Individual differences in the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal predict the reward-related processing.

    PubMed

    Sai, Liyang; Wang, Sisi; Ward, Anne; Ku, Yixuan; Sang, Biao

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that instructed cognitive reappraisal can regulate the neural processing of reward. However, it is still unclear whether the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal in everyday life is related to brain activity involved in reward processing. In the present study, participants' neural responses to reward were measured using electroencephalography (EEG) recorded during a gambling task and their tendency to use cognitive reappraisal was assessed using the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ). Event-related potential (ERP) results indicated that losses on the gambling task elicited greater negative reward-related feedback negativity (FN) than gains. The differential FN between losses and gains was significantly correlated with cognitive reappraisal scores across participants such that individuals with a higher tendency to use cognitive reappraisal showed stronger reward processing (i.e., amplified FN difference between losses and gains). This correlation remained significant after controlling for expressive suppression scores. However, expressive suppression per se was not correlated with FN differences. Taken together, these results suggest that the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal is associated with increased neural processing of reward. PMID:26388796

  18. Individual differences in the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal predict the reward-related processing

    PubMed Central

    Sai, Liyang; Wang, Sisi; Ward, Anne; Ku, Yixuan; Sang, Biao

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that instructed cognitive reappraisal can regulate the neural processing of reward. However, it is still unclear whether the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal in everyday life is related to brain activity involved in reward processing. In the present study, participants’ neural responses to reward were measured using electroencephalography (EEG) recorded during a gambling task and their tendency to use cognitive reappraisal was assessed using the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ). Event-related potential (ERP) results indicated that losses on the gambling task elicited greater negative reward-related feedback negativity (FN) than gains. The differential FN between losses and gains was significantly correlated with cognitive reappraisal scores across participants such that individuals with a higher tendency to use cognitive reappraisal showed stronger reward processing (i.e., amplified FN difference between losses and gains). This correlation remained significant after controlling for expressive suppression scores. However, expressive suppression per se was not correlated with FN differences. Taken together, these results suggest that the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal is associated with increased neural processing of reward. PMID:26388796

  19. High sexual signalling rates of young individuals predict extended life span in male Mediterranean fruit flies.

    PubMed

    Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Carey, James R; Müller, Hans-Georg; Zhang, Ying

    2004-01-01

    In a laboratory study, we monitored the lifetime sexual signalling (advertisement) of wild male Mediterranean fruit flies, and we tested the hypothesis that high lifetime intensity of sexual signalling indicates high survival probabilities. Almost all males exhibited signalling and individual signalling rates were highly variable from the beginning of the adults' maturity and throughout their life span (average life span 62.3 days). Sexual signalling rates after day 10 (peak maturity) were consistently high until about 1 week before death. There was a positive relationship between daily signalling rates and life span, and an increase in signalling level by one unit over all times was associated with an approximately 50% decrease in mortality rate. Signalling rates early in adult life (day 6-20) were higher in the longest-lived than in the shortest-lived flies. These results support the hypothesis that intense sexual signalling indicates longer life span. We discuss the importance of age-specific behavioural studies for understanding the evolution of male life histories. PMID:14576929

  20. Predicting Addictive Vulnerability: Individual Differences in Initial Responding to a Drug’s Pharmacological Effects

    PubMed Central

    Ramsay, Douglas S.; Al-Noori, Salwa; Shao, Jason; Leroux, Brian G.; Woods, Stephen C.; Kaiyala, Karl J.

    2015-01-01

    Considerable data suggest that individuals who appear minimally disrupted during an initial drug administration have elevated risk for abusing the drug later. A better understanding of this association could lead to more effective strategies for preventing and treating drug addiction. To investigate this phenomenon using a rigorous experimental model, we first administered the abused inhalant nitrous oxide (N2O) to rats in a total calorimetry and temperature system to identify groups that were sensitive or insensitive to the drug’s hypothermic effect. We then enrolled the two groups in a novel N2O self-administration paradigm. The initially insensitive rats self-administered significantly more N2O than sensitive rats, an important step in the transition to addiction. Continuous non-invasive measurement of core temperature and its underlying determinants during screening revealed that both groups had similarly increased heat loss during initial N2O administration, but that insensitive rats generated more heat and thereby remained relatively normothermic. Calorimetry testing conducted after self-administration revealed that whereas N2O’s effect on heat loss persisted comparably for both groups, initially insensitive rats actually over-responded by generating excess heat and becoming hyperthermic. Thus, rats with the greatest initial heat-producing compensatory response(s) appeared initially insensitive to N2O-induced hypothermia, subsequently self-administered more N2O, and developed hyperthermic overcompensation during N2O inhalation, consistent with increased abuse potential and an allostatic model of addictive vulnerability. PMID:25880426

  1. Predicting Speech Intelligibility Decline in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Based on the Deterioration of Individual Speech Subsystems

    PubMed Central

    Yunusova, Yana; Wang, Jun; Zinman, Lorne; Pattee, Gary L.; Berry, James D.; Perry, Bridget; Green, Jordan R.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To determine the mechanisms of speech intelligibility impairment due to neurologic impairments, intelligibility decline was modeled as a function of co-occurring changes in the articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems. Method Sixty-six individuals diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) were studied longitudinally. The disease-related changes in articulatory, resonatory, phonatory, and respiratory subsystems were quantified using multiple instrumental measures, which were subjected to a principal component analysis and mixed effects models to derive a set of speech subsystem predictors. A stepwise approach was used to select the best set of subsystem predictors to model the overall decline in intelligibility. Results Intelligibility was modeled as a function of five predictors that corresponded to velocities of lip and jaw movements (articulatory), number of syllable repetitions in the alternating motion rate task (articulatory), nasal airflow (resonatory), maximum fundamental frequency (phonatory), and speech pauses (respiratory). The model accounted for 95.6% of the variance in intelligibility, among which the articulatory predictors showed the most substantial independent contribution (57.7%). Conclusion Articulatory impairments characterized by reduced velocities of lip and jaw movements and resonatory impairments characterized by increased nasal airflow served as the subsystem predictors of the longitudinal decline of speech intelligibility in ALS. Declines in maximum performance tasks such as the alternating motion rate preceded declines in intelligibility, thus serving as early predictors of bulbar dysfunction. Following the rapid decline in speech intelligibility, a precipitous decline in maximum performance tasks subsequently occurred. PMID:27148967

  2. Predicting sex offender treatment entry among individuals convicted of sexual offense crimes.

    PubMed

    Jones, Nicole; Pelissier, Bernadette; Klein-Saffran, Jody

    2006-01-01

    This study examined what factors were predictive of who volunteers for sex offender treatment (self-selection) as well as who enters treatment after volunteering (administration selection). Research participants included 404 treatment volunteers and 387 nonvolunteers to treatment who were convicted of a sexual offense involving minors within the federal prison system. Maximum likelihood probit estimation procedures indicated that when compared with nonvolunteers, treatment volunteers were more likely to be recommended by a judge to receive treatment at the time of sentencing, had received prior treatment for sexually deviant behavior, reported higher levels of motivation to change their sexually deviant behavior, and had lower rates of a substance use disorder in the year prior to incarceration. Of those persons who initially volunteered, 62% were accepted and entered treatment, 16% were denied entry to treatment by program staff, and 22% refused treatment after being accepted to the waiting list. When compared with those who were accepted and entered treatment, motivation was the only predictor of being denied admission into treatment by program staff and for refusal of treatment once accepted. The findings emphasize the need to control for selection bias in treatment outcome studies and the importance of examining the role of motivation in treatment volunteerism and treatment entry for sexual offenders. PMID:16763760

  3. Brain activity in valuation regions while thinking about the future predicts individual discount rates.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Kim, B Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-08-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future--specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals--predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  4. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  5. The Eye is Listening: Music-Induced Arousal and Individual Differences Predict Pupillary Responses.

    PubMed

    Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M; Puig-Waldmüller, Estela; Fitch, W T

    2015-01-01

    Pupillary responses are a well-known indicator of emotional arousal but have not yet been systematically investigated in response to music. Here, we measured pupillary dilations evoked by short musical excerpts normalized for intensity and selected for their stylistic uniformity. Thirty participants (15 females) provided subjective ratings of music-induced felt arousal, tension, pleasantness, and familiarity for 80 classical music excerpts. The pupillary responses evoked by these excerpts were measured in another thirty participants (15 females). We probed the role of listener-specific characteristics such as mood, stress reactivity, self-reported role of music in life, liking for the selected excerpts, as well as of subjective responses to music, in pupillary responses. Linear mixed model analyses showed that a greater role of music in life was associated with larger dilations, and that larger dilations were also predicted for excerpts rated as more arousing or tense. However, an interaction between arousal and liking for the excerpts suggested that pupillary responses were modulated less strongly by arousal when the excerpts were particularly liked. An analogous interaction was observed between tension and liking. Additionally, males exhibited larger dilations than females. Overall, these findings suggest a complex interplay between bottom-up and top-down influences on pupillary responses to music. PMID:26617511

  6. The Eye is Listening: Music-Induced Arousal and Individual Differences Predict Pupillary Responses

    PubMed Central

    Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M.; Puig-Waldmüller, Estela; Fitch, W. T.

    2015-01-01

    Pupillary responses are a well-known indicator of emotional arousal but have not yet been systematically investigated in response to music. Here, we measured pupillary dilations evoked by short musical excerpts normalized for intensity and selected for their stylistic uniformity. Thirty participants (15 females) provided subjective ratings of music-induced felt arousal, tension, pleasantness, and familiarity for 80 classical music excerpts. The pupillary responses evoked by these excerpts were measured in another thirty participants (15 females). We probed the role of listener-specific characteristics such as mood, stress reactivity, self-reported role of music in life, liking for the selected excerpts, as well as of subjective responses to music, in pupillary responses. Linear mixed model analyses showed that a greater role of music in life was associated with larger dilations, and that larger dilations were also predicted for excerpts rated as more arousing or tense. However, an interaction between arousal and liking for the excerpts suggested that pupillary responses were modulated less strongly by arousal when the excerpts were particularly liked. An analogous interaction was observed between tension and liking. Additionally, males exhibited larger dilations than females. Overall, these findings suggest a complex interplay between bottom-up and top-down influences on pupillary responses to music. PMID:26617511

  7. Measuring spirituality, religiosity, and denial in individuals working in funeral service to predict death anxiety.

    PubMed

    Harrawood, Laura K

    The aim of the present study was to examine predictors of death anxiety in U.S. funeral directors/embalmers who were part of a larger study (n = 234). Backward stepwise multiple regression was conducted to determine whether or not spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, extrinsic religiosity, and denial predicted levels of death anxiety. Results indicated that spirituality along with age of the participants accounted for 19% of the variance of death anxiety, R2 = .190, R2(adj) = .180, F(2, 168) = 19.64, p < .001. Intrinsic religiosity, extrinsic religiosity, and denial were not significant in the regression model. Several items, however, in the model had a significant positive correlation with each other at the .01 alpha level including spirituality with intrinsic religiosity (r = .63) and age (r = .21), and intrinsic religiosity with denial (r = .22) and age (r = .24). Other variables correlated negatively with one another at the .01 alpha level. Namely, death anxiety with spirituality (-.38), intrinsic religiosity (r = -.36), and age (-.28); spirituality with extrinsic religiosity (-.22); intrinsic religiosity with extrinsic religiosity (-.45); and extrinsic religiosity with age (r = -.19). Limitations of the study and implications for practice were discussed. PMID:20222233

  8. Does Sense of Control Predict Depression Among Individuals After Psychiatric Hospital Discharge?

    PubMed

    Kim, Yoo Jung; Fusco, Rachel A

    2015-11-01

    Sense of control is known to be related to depression. Yet, few studies have examined the role of sense of control as related to depression for discharged psychiatric patients. In this study the longitudinal relationship between sense of control and depressive mood was examined using the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study, a 6-wave, 1-year study of 948 ethnically diverse postdischarge psychiatric patients. Sense of control was decomposed into 2 components (i.e., a time-invariant as well as a time-varying component) and so as to examine which component of sense of control would more accurately explain this relationship. Results demonstrated that time-varying sense of control significantly predicted changes in depressive mood during the transition to community environment. Time-invariant sense of control, however, was not significantly related to changes in depressive mood. Findings of this study hold important implications for intervention practice with people before or after psychiatric discharge, including the need for incorporation of therapeutic and psychoeducational efforts that bolster sense of control. PMID:26488915

  9. Modeling dopaminergic and other processes involved in learning from reward prediction error: contributions from an individual differences perspective.

    PubMed

    Pickering, Alan D; Pesola, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    Phasic firing changes of midbrain dopamine neurons have been widely characterized as reflecting a reward prediction error (RPE). Major personality traits (e.g., extraversion) have been linked to inter-individual variations in dopaminergic neurotransmission. Consistent with these two claims, recent research (Smillie et al., 2011; Cooper et al., 2014) found that extraverts exhibited larger RPEs than introverts, as reflected in feedback related negativity (FRN) effects in EEG recordings. Using an established, biologically-localized RPE computational model, we successfully simulated dopaminergic cell firing changes which are thought to modulate the FRN. We introduced simulated individual differences into the model: parameters were systematically varied, with stable values for each simulated individual. We explored whether a model parameter might be responsible for the observed covariance between extraversion and the FRN changes in real data, and argued that a parameter is a plausible source of such covariance if parameter variance, across simulated individuals, correlated almost perfectly with the size of the simulated dopaminergic FRN modulation, and created as much variance as possible in this simulated output. Several model parameters met these criteria, while others did not. In particular, variations in the strength of connections carrying excitatory reward drive inputs to midbrain dopaminergic cells were considered plausible candidates, along with variations in a parameter which scales the effects of dopamine cell firing bursts on synaptic modification in ventral striatum. We suggest possible neurotransmitter mechanisms underpinning these model parameters. Finally, the limitations and possible extensions of our general approach are discussed. PMID:25324752

  10. Modeling dopaminergic and other processes involved in learning from reward prediction error: contributions from an individual differences perspective

    PubMed Central

    Pickering, Alan D.; Pesola, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    Phasic firing changes of midbrain dopamine neurons have been widely characterized as reflecting a reward prediction error (RPE). Major personality traits (e.g., extraversion) have been linked to inter-individual variations in dopaminergic neurotransmission. Consistent with these two claims, recent research (Smillie et al., 2011; Cooper et al., 2014) found that extraverts exhibited larger RPEs than introverts, as reflected in feedback related negativity (FRN) effects in EEG recordings. Using an established, biologically-localized RPE computational model, we successfully simulated dopaminergic cell firing changes which are thought to modulate the FRN. We introduced simulated individual differences into the model: parameters were systematically varied, with stable values for each simulated individual. We explored whether a model parameter might be responsible for the observed covariance between extraversion and the FRN changes in real data, and argued that a parameter is a plausible source of such covariance if parameter variance, across simulated individuals, correlated almost perfectly with the size of the simulated dopaminergic FRN modulation, and created as much variance as possible in this simulated output. Several model parameters met these criteria, while others did not. In particular, variations in the strength of connections carrying excitatory reward drive inputs to midbrain dopaminergic cells were considered plausible candidates, along with variations in a parameter which scales the effects of dopamine cell firing bursts on synaptic modification in ventral striatum. We suggest possible neurotransmitter mechanisms underpinning these model parameters. Finally, the limitations and possible extensions of our general approach are discussed. PMID:25324752

  11. Pre-SMA graymatter density predicts individual differences in action selection in the face of conscious and unconscious response conflict.

    PubMed

    van Gaal, Simon; Scholte, H Steven; Lamme, Victor A F; Fahrenfort, Johannes J; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

    2011-02-01

    The presupplementary motor area (pre-SMA) is considered key in contributing to voluntary action selection during response conflict. Here we test whether individual differences in the ability to select appropriate actions in the face of strong (conscious) and weak (virtually unconscious) distracting alternatives are related to individual variability in pre-SMA anatomy. To this end, we scanned 58 participants, who performed a masked priming task in which conflicting response tendencies were elicited either consciously (through primes that were weakly masked) or virtually unconsciously (strongly masked primes), with structural magnetic resonance imaging. Voxel-based morphometry revealed that individual differences in pre-SMA gray-matter density are related to subjects' ability to voluntary select the correct action in the face of conflict, irrespective of the awareness level of conflict-inducing stimuli. These results link structural anatomy to individual differences in cognitive control ability, and provide support for the role of the pre-SMA in the selection of appropriate actions in situations of response conflict. Furthermore, these results suggest that flexible and voluntary behavior requires efficiently dealing with competing response tendencies, even those that are activated automatically and unconsciously. PMID:20175674

  12. Individual differences in cortical face selectivity predict behavioral performance in face recognition.

    PubMed

    Huang, Lijie; Song, Yiying; Li, Jingguang; Zhen, Zonglei; Yang, Zetian; Liu, Jia

    2014-01-01

    In functional magnetic resonance imaging studies, object selectivity is defined as a higher neural response to an object category than other object categories. Importantly, object selectivity is widely considered as a neural signature of a functionally-specialized area in processing its preferred object category in the human brain. However, the behavioral significance of the object selectivity remains unclear. In the present study, we used the individual differences approach to correlate participants' face selectivity in the face-selective regions with their behavioral performance in face recognition measured outside the scanner in a large sample of healthy adults. Face selectivity was defined as the z score of activation with the contrast of faces vs. non-face objects, and the face recognition ability was indexed as the normalized residual of the accuracy in recognizing previously-learned faces after regressing out that for non-face objects in an old/new memory task. We found that the participants with higher face selectivity in the fusiform face area (FFA) and the occipital face area (OFA), but not in the posterior part of the superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), possessed higher face recognition ability. Importantly, the association of face selectivity in the FFA and face recognition ability cannot be accounted for by FFA response to objects or behavioral performance in object recognition, suggesting that the association is domain-specific. Finally, the association is reliable, confirmed by the replication from another independent participant group. In sum, our finding provides empirical evidence on the validity of using object selectivity as a neural signature in defining object-selective regions in the human brain. PMID:25071513

  13. Masked hypertension and its associated cardiovascular risk in young individuals: the African-PREDICT study.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Jane E S; Smith, Wayne; Ware, Lisa J; M C Mels, Carina; van Rooyen, Johannes M; Huisman, Hugo W; Malan, Leone; Malan, Nico T; Lammertyn, Leandi; Schutte, Aletta E

    2016-03-01

    Hypertension prevalence is increasing globally, yet little is known about the occurrence of masked hypertension (MHT) in young, sub-Saharan African adults, and how it relates to elevated cardiovascular risk. The African-PREDICT study (recruitment based on normotensive clinic blood pressure (BP)) determined the frequency of MHT and its relationship with arterial stiffness and biochemical markers of inflammation and endothelial activation. We included men and women (n=352), 20-30 years, screened for normotensive clinic BP (54% white, 40% men). Clinic BP, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM), central systolic pressure, aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), augmentation index, anthropometry, physical activity and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk were assessed (lipids, glucose, insulin, markers of endothelial activation and inflammation). Eighteen percent of the study population had MHT (60% white, 68% men). Those with MHT had increased adiposity, clinic-, ABPM- (24-h, day and night) and central-BP (within normal ranges), heart rate, aPWV and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, compared with normotensives (all P<0.05). Using multivariable adjusted odds ratios, we found that MHT was associated with increased likelihood for higher aPWV (odds ratio (OR)=1.567, P=0.010), insulin (OR=1.499, P=0.049), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (OR=1.499, P=0.026), vascular cellular adhesion molecule (OR=1.409, P=0.042) and C-reactive protein (OR=1.440, P=0.044). In a young adult (supposedly healthy) cohort, the occurrence of MHT is alarming, especially since MHT further demonstrated elevated cardiovascular risk via increased adiposity, arterial stiffness, endothelial activation and inflammation. Detection of MHT is crucial to increase awareness of elevated cardiovascular risk, and to ensure the required lifestyle and/or pharmaceutical interventions. PMID:26606873

  14. Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Predictions in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    Semenenko, Vladimir A.; Tarima, Sergey S.; Devisetty, Kiran; Pelizzari, Charles A.; Liauw, Stanley L.

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: To perform validation of risk predictions for late rectal toxicity (LRT) in prostate cancer obtained using a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data. Methods and Materials: A published study survey was performed to identify the dose-response relationships for LRT derived from nonoverlapping patient populations. To avoid mixing models based on different symptoms, the emphasis was placed on rectal bleeding. The selected models were used to compute the risk estimates of grade 2+ and grade 3+ LRT for an independent validation cohort composed of 269 prostate cancer patients with known toxicity outcomes. Risk estimates from single studies were combined to produce consolidated risk estimates. An agreement between the actuarial toxicity incidence 3 years after radiation therapy completion and single-study or consolidated risk estimates was evaluated using the concordance correlation coefficient. Goodness of fit for the consolidated risk estimates was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: A total of 16 studies of grade 2+ and 5 studies of grade 3+ LRT met the inclusion criteria. The consolidated risk estimates of grade 2+ and 3+ LRT were constructed using 3 studies each. For grade 2+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.537 compared with 0.431 for the best-fit single study. For grade 3+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.477 compared with 0.448 for the best-fit single study. No evidence was found for a lack of fit for the consolidated risk estimates using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=.531 and P=.397 for grade 2+ and 3+ LRT, respectively). Conclusions: In a large cohort of prostate cancer patients, selected sets of consolidated risk estimates were found to be more accurate predictors of LRT than risk estimates derived from any single study.

  15. Severe hypoxaemia can predict unfavourable clinical outcomes in individuals with pulmonary embolism aged over 40 years

    PubMed Central

    Souza, Caio Simoes; Resende, Fernanda Simoes Seabra; Rodrigues, Marcelo Palmeira

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is an urgent clinical condition that can progress in a wide variety of ways. Therefore, we sought to develop an easy-to-apply algorithm, to be based on readily available clinical indicators, effective in predicting unfavourable outcomes. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study based on systematically collected data in a database. The study included 102 patients with APE who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital. The following outcomes were defined as unfavourable shock, the need for mechanical ventilation, the use of thrombolytics, and death. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore variables significantly associated with outcome and to calculate post-test probabilities. RESULTS The prevalence of unfavourable outcomes was 25.5% (26 of the 102 patients with APE). The risk of an unfavourable outcome was reduced to 7.0% for patients with APE who were aged ≤ 40 years. In patients with APE who were aged > 40 years, the presence of hypoxaemia (i.e. peripheral oxygen saturation < 90%) alone increased the risk of an unfavourable outcome to 57.0%. A recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease were significantly associated with unfavourable outcomes. The inclusion of those variables in the logistic regression model increased the post-test risk of an unfavourable outcome to 65.0%–86.0%. CONCLUSION Advanced age (i.e. > 40 years), the presence of hypoxaemia, a recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease are risk factors for unfavourable outcome in patients with APE. PMID:25273933

  16. Maximising the efficiency of clinical screening programmes: balancing predictive genetic testing with a right not to know

    PubMed Central

    Schuurman, Agnes G; van der Kolk, Dorina M; Verkerk, Marian A; Birnie, Erwin; Ranchor, Adelita V; Plantinga, Mirjam; van Langen, Irene M

    2015-01-01

    We explored the dilemma between patients' right not to know their genetic status and the efficient use of health-care resources in the form of clinical cancer screening programmes. Currently, in the Netherlands, 50% risk carriers of heritable cancer syndromes who choose not to know their genetic status have access to the same screening programmes as proven mutation carriers. This implies an inefficient use of health-care resources, because half of this group will not carry the familial mutation. At the moment, only a small number of patients are involved; however, the expanding possibilities for genetic risk profiling means this issue must be addressed because of potentially adverse societal and financial impact. The trade-off between patients' right not to know their genetic status and efficient use of health-care resources was discussed in six focus groups with health-care professionals and patients from three Dutch university hospitals. Professionals prefer patients to undergo a predictive DNA test as a prerequisite for entering cancer screening programmes. Professionals prioritise treating sick patients or proven mutation carriers over screening untested individuals. Participation in cancer screening programmes without prior DNA testing is, however, supported by most professionals, as testing is usually delayed and relatively few patients are involved at present. Reducing the number of 50% risk carriers undergoing screening is expected to be achieved by: offering more psychosocial support, explaining the iatrogenic risks of cancer screening, increasing out-of-pocket costs, and offering a less stringent screening programme for 50% risk carriers. PMID:25564039

  17. Maximising the efficiency of clinical screening programmes: balancing predictive genetic testing with a right not to know.

    PubMed

    Schuurman, Agnes G; van der Kolk, Dorina M; Verkerk, Marian A; Birnie, Erwin; Ranchor, Adelita V; Plantinga, Mirjam; van Langen, Irene M

    2015-09-01

    We explored the dilemma between patients' right not to know their genetic status and the efficient use of health-care resources in the form of clinical cancer screening programmes. Currently, in the Netherlands, 50% risk carriers of heritable cancer syndromes who choose not to know their genetic status have access to the same screening programmes as proven mutation carriers. This implies an inefficient use of health-care resources, because half of this group will not carry the familial mutation. At the moment, only a small number of patients are involved; however, the expanding possibilities for genetic risk profiling means this issue must be addressed because of potentially adverse societal and financial impact. The trade-off between patients' right not to know their genetic status and efficient use of health-care resources was discussed in six focus groups with health-care professionals and patients from three Dutch university hospitals. Professionals prefer patients to undergo a predictive DNA test as a prerequisite for entering cancer screening programmes. Professionals prioritise treating sick patients or proven mutation carriers over screening untested individuals. Participation in cancer screening programmes without prior DNA testing is, however, supported by most professionals, as testing is usually delayed and relatively few patients are involved at present. Reducing the number of 50% risk carriers undergoing screening is expected to be achieved by: offering more psychosocial support, explaining the iatrogenic risks of cancer screening, increasing out-of-pocket costs, and offering a less stringent screening programme for 50% risk carriers. PMID:25564039

  18. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

  19. A cognitive neuroscience-based computerized battery for efficient measurement of individual differences: standardization and initial construct validation.

    PubMed

    Gur, Ruben C; Richard, Jan; Hughett, Paul; Calkins, Monica E; Macy, Larry; Bilker, Warren B; Brensinger, Colleen; Gur, Raquel E

    2010-03-30

    There is increased need for efficient computerized methods to collect reliable data on a range of cognitive domains that can be linked to specific brain systems. Such need arises in functional neuroimaging studies, where individual differences in cognitive performance are variables of interest or serve as confounds. In genetic studies of complex behavior, which require particularly large samples, such trait measures can serve as endophenotypes. Traditional neuropsychological tests, based on clinical pathological correlations, are protracted, require extensive training in administration and scoring, and leave lengthy paper trails (double-entry for analysis). We present a computerized battery that takes an average of 1h and provides measures of accuracy and speed on 9 neurocognitive domains. They are cognitive neuroscience-based in that they have been linked experimentally to specific brain systems with functional neuroimaging studies. We describe the process of translating tasks used in functional neuroimaging to tests for assessing individual differences. Data are presented on each test with samples ranging from 139 (81 female) to 536 (311 female) of carefully screened healthy individuals ranging in age from 18 to 84. Item consistency was established with acceptable to high Cronbach alpha coefficients. Inter-item correlations were moderate to high within domain and low to nil across domains, indicating construct validity. Initial criterion validity was demonstrated by sensitivity to sex differences and the effects of age, education and parental education. These results encourage the use of this battery in studies needing an efficient assessment of major neurocognitive domains such as multi-site genetic studies and clinical trials. PMID:19945485

  20. Using Tests Designed to Measure Individual Sensorimotor Subsystem Perfomance to Predict Locomotor Adaptability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, B. T.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; Guined, J. R.; DeDios, Y. E.; Stepanyan, V.; Gadd, N. E.; Szecsy, D. L.; Mulavara, A. P.; Seidler, R. D.; Bloomberg, J. J.

    2014-01-01

    Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functions during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The way each individual's brain synthesizes the available visual, vestibular and somatosensory information is likely the basis for much of the variation. Identifying the presence of biases in each person's use of information available from these sensorimotor subsystems and relating it to their ability to adapt to a novel locomotor task will allow us to customize a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Eight tests are being used to measure sensorimotor subsystem performance. Three of these use measures of body sway to characterize balance during varying sensorimotor challenges. The effect of vision is assessed by repeating conditions with eyes open and eyes closed. Standing on foam, or on a support surface that pitches to maintain a constant ankle angle provide somatosensory challenges. Information from the vestibular system is isolated when vision is removed and the support surface is compromised, and it is challenged when the tasks are done while the head is in motion. The integration and dominance of visual information is assessed in three additional tests. The Rod & Frame Test measures the degree to which a subject's perception of the visual vertical is affected by the orientation of a tilted frame in the periphery. Locomotor visual dependence is determined by assessing how much an oscillating virtual visual world affects a treadmill-walking subject. In the third of the visual manipulation tests, subjects walk an obstacle course while wearing up-down reversing prisms. The two remaining tests include direct

  1. Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders

    PubMed Central

    Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

    2013-01-01

    There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h interview that permitted detailed and fine-grained observation and coding of signature movements by trained practitioners using MPA. Three months later, these subjects completed four hypothetical decision-making tasks in which the amount of information sought out before coming to a decision, as well as the time spent on the tasks, were under the partial control of the subject. A composite MPA indicator of how a person allocates decision-making actions and motivations to balance both Assertion (exertion of tangible movement effort on the environment to make something occur) and Perspective (through movements that support shaping in the body to perceive and create a suitable viewpoint for action) was highly correlated with the total number of information draws and total response time—individuals high on Assertion reached for less information and had faster response times than those high on Perspective. Discussion focuses on the utility of using movement-based observational measures to capture individual differences in decision-making style and the implications for application in applied settings geared toward investigations of experienced leaders and world statesmen where individuality rules the day. PMID:24069012

  2. An Efficient Molecular Dynamics Scheme for Predicting Dopant Implant Profiles in Semiconductors

    SciTech Connect

    Beardmore, K.M.; Gronbech-Jensen, N.

    1998-09-15

    The authors present a highly efficient molecular dynamics scheme for calculating the concentration profile of dopants implanted in group-IV alloy, and III-V zinc blende structure materials. The program incorporates methods for reducing computational overhead, plus a rare event algorithm to give statistical accuracy over several orders of magnitude change in the dopant concentration. The code uses a molecular dynamics (MD) model, instead of the binary collision approximation (BCA) used in implant simulators such as TRIM and Marlowe, to describe ion-target interactions. Atomic interactions are described by a combination of 'many-body' and screened Coulomb potentials. Inelastic energy loss is accounted for using a Firsov model, and electronic stopping is described by a Brandt-Kitagawa model which contains the single adjustable parameter for the entire scheme. Thus, the program is easily extensible to new ion-target combinations with the minimum of tuning, and is predictive over a wide range of implant energies and angles. The scheme is especially suited for calculating profiles due to low energy, large angle implants, and for situations where a predictive capability is required with the minimum of experimental validation. They give examples of using their code to calculate concentration profiles and 2D 'point response' profiles of dopants in crystalline silicon, silicon-germanium blends, and gallium-arsenide. They can predict the experimental profiles over five orders of magnitude for <100> and <110> channeling and for non-channeling implants at energies up to hundreds of keV.

  3. Individual differences in symptom severity and behavior predict neural activation during face processing in adolescents with autism

    PubMed Central

    Scherf, K. Suzanne; Elbich, Daniel; Minshew, Nancy; Behrmann, Marlene

    2014-01-01

    Despite the impressive literature describing atypical neural activation in visuoperceptual face processing regions in autism, almost nothing is known about whether these perturbations extend to more affective regions in the circuitry and whether they bear any relationship to symptom severity or atypical behavior. Using fMRI, we compared face-, object-, and house-related activation in adolescent males with high-functioning autism (HFA) and typically developing (TD) matched controls. HFA adolescents exhibited hypo-activation throughout the core visuoperceptual regions, particularly in the right hemisphere, as well as in some of the affective/motivational face-processing regions, including the posterior cingulate cortex and right anterior temporal lobe. Conclusions about the relative hyper- or hypo-activation of the amygdala depended on the nature of the contrast that was used to define the activation. Individual differences in symptom severity predicted the magnitude of face activation, particularly in the right fusiform gyrus. Also, among the HFA adolescents, face recognition performance predicted the magnitude of face activation in the right anterior temporal lobe, a region that supports face individuation in TD adults. Our findings reveal a systematic relation between the magnitude of neural dysfunction, severity of autism symptoms, and variation in face recognition behavior in adolescents with autism. In so doing, we uncover brain–behavior relations that underlie one of the most prominent social deficits in autism and help resolve discrepancies in the literature. PMID:25610767

  4. Behavior and neuroimaging at baseline predict individual response to combined mathematical and working memory training in children.

    PubMed

    Nemmi, Federico; Helander, Elin; Helenius, Ola; Almeida, Rita; Hassler, Martin; Räsänen, Pekka; Klingberg, Torkel

    2016-08-01

    Mathematical performance is highly correlated with several general cognitive abilities, including working memory (WM) capacity. Here we investigated the effect of numerical training using a number-line (NLT), WM training (WMT), or the combination of the two on a composite score of mathematical ability. The aim was to investigate if the combination contributed to the outcome, and determine if baseline performance or neuroimaging predict the magnitude of improvement. We randomly assigned 308, 6-year-old children to WMT, NLT, WMT+NLT or a control intervention. Overall, there was a significant effect of NLT but not WMT. The WMT+NLT was the only group that improved significantly more than the controls, although the interaction NLTxWM was non-significant. Higher WM and maths performance predicted larger benefits for WMT and NLT, respectively. Neuroimaging at baseline also contributed significant information about training gain. Different individuals showed as much as a three-fold difference in their responses to the same intervention. These results show that the impact of an intervention is highly dependent on individual characteristics of the child. If differences in responses could be used to optimize the intervention for each child, future interventions could be substantially more effective. PMID:27399278

  5. Do PTSD Symptoms and Course Predict Continued Substance Use for Homeless Individuals in Contingency Management for Cocaine Dependence?

    PubMed Central

    Burns, Michelle Nicole; Lehman, Kenneth A.; Milby, Jesse B.; Wallace, Dennis; Schumacher, Joseph E.

    2010-01-01

    Homeless individuals (n = 187) entering contingency management (CM) for cocaine dependence were assessed for PTSD diagnosis, and a subset of 102 participants reporting traumatic exposure also periodically completed a self-report measure of PTSD symptoms. Patients with PTSD in full remission at 6 months (end of active treatment) and 12 months (end of aftercare) used substances much less frequently during aftercare than those with no PTSD diagnosis. Those whose PTSD diagnosis improved to full remission status during active treatment, and remained in full remission at 12 months, also had superior substance use outcomes. Severity of PTSD symptoms at 6 months, but not baseline or 2 months, was associated with substance use across treatment phases. Substance use during aftercare, however, was better predicted by changes in PTSD symptom severity. Patients whose PTSD symptoms improved more during active treatment fared better during aftercare than those with less improvement. Findings suggest homeless individuals with comorbid PTSD entering CM for cocaine dependence are not necessarily at increased risk for substance use compared to those without the comorbidity. However, course of PTSD does predict substance use, with the potential for CM to be unusually effective for those who respond with substantial, lasting improvements in PTSD. PMID:20363465

  6. Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: An International Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Palma, David A.; Senan, Suresh; Tsujino, Kayoko; Barriger, Robert B.; Rengan, Ramesh; Moreno, Marta; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Kim, Tae Hyun; Ramella, Sara; Marks, Lawrence B.; De Petris, Luigi; Stitt, Larry; Rodrigues, George

    2013-02-01

    Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a dose-limiting toxicity for patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 836 patients who underwent CCRT in Europe, North America, and Asia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (two-thirds vs one-third of patients). Factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis (grade {>=}2 by 1 of several scoring systems) or fatal pneumonitis were evaluated using logistic regression. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to define risk groups. Results: The median radiation therapy dose was 60 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.3 years. Most patients received concurrent cisplatin/etoposide (38%) or carboplatin/paclitaxel (26%). The overall rate of symptomatic pneumonitis was 29.8% (n=249), with fatal pneumonitis in 1.9% (n=16). In the training set, factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis were lung volume receiving {>=}20 Gy (V{sub 20}) (odds ratio [OR] 1.03 per 1% increase, P=.008), and carboplatin/paclitaxel chemotherapy (OR 3.33, P<.001), with a trend for age (OR 1.24 per decade, P=.09); the model remained predictive in the validation set with good discrimination in both datasets (c-statistic >0.65). On RPA, the highest risk of pneumonitis (>50%) was in patients >65 years of age receiving carboplatin/paclitaxel. Predictors of fatal pneumonitis were daily dose >2 Gy, V{sub 20}, and lower-lobe tumor location. Conclusions: Several treatment-related risk factors predict the development of symptomatic pneumonitis, and elderly patients who undergo CCRT with carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy are at highest risk. Fatal pneumonitis, although uncommon, is related to dosimetric factors and tumor location.

  7. Development and validation of a predictive model of acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our purpose was to develop and test a predictive model of the acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design and methods Data from three previous exercise studies (56 subjects, 488 exercise sessions) were combined and used as a development dataset. A mixed-effects Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) was used to select predictors among 12 potential predictors. Tests of the relative importance of each predictor were conducted using the Lindemann Merenda and Gold (LMG) algorithm. Model structure was tested using likelihood ratio tests. Model accuracy in the development dataset was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Prospectively captured data (47 individuals, 436 sessions) was used as a test dataset. Model accuracy was calculated as the percentage of predictions within measurement error. Overall model utility was assessed as the number of subjects with ≤1 model error after the third exercise session. Model accuracy across individuals was assessed graphically. In a post-hoc analysis, a mixed-effects logistic regression tested the association of individuals’ attributes with model error. Results Minutes since eating, a non-linear transformation of minutes since eating, post-prandial state, hemoglobin A1c, sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session number were identified as novel predictors. Minutes since eating, its transformations, and hemoglobin A1c combined to account for 19.6% of the variance in glucose response. Sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session each accounted for <1.0% of the variance. In the development dataset, a model with random slopes for pre-exercise glucose improved fit over a model with random intercepts only (likelihood ratio 34.5, p < 0.001). Cross-validated model accuracy was 83.3%. In the test dataset, overall accuracy was 80.2%. The model was more accurate in pre-prandial than postprandial exercise (83.6% vs. 74.5% accuracy respectively). 31/47 subjects had

  8. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  9. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  10. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Vleck, Carol M; Otis, David L

    2009-10-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10-15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves. PMID:19682449

  11. Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model

    PubMed Central

    Snell, Kym I.E.; Hua, Harry; Debray, Thomas P.A.; Ensor, Joie; Look, Maxime P.; Moons, Karel G.M.; Riley, Richard D.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to improve meta-analysis methods for summarizing a prediction model's performance when individual participant data are available from multiple studies for external validation. Study Design and Setting We suggest multivariate meta-analysis for jointly synthesizing calibration and discrimination performance, while accounting for their correlation. The approach estimates a prediction model's average performance, the heterogeneity in performance across populations, and the probability of “good” performance in new populations. This allows different implementation strategies (e.g., recalibration) to be compared. Application is made to a diagnostic model for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and a prognostic model for breast cancer mortality. Results In both examples, multivariate meta-analysis reveals that calibration performance is excellent on average but highly heterogeneous across populations unless the model's intercept (baseline hazard) is recalibrated. For the cancer model, the probability of “good” performance (defined by C statistic ≥0.7 and calibration slope between 0.9 and 1.1) in a new population was 0.67 with recalibration but 0.22 without recalibration. For the DVT model, even with recalibration, there was only a 0.03 probability of “good” performance. Conclusion Multivariate meta-analysis can be used to externally validate a prediction model's calibration and discrimination performance across multiple populations and to evaluate different implementation strategies. PMID:26142114

  12. Individual differences in executive function and central coherence predict developmental changes in theory of mind in autism.

    PubMed

    Pellicano, Elizabeth

    2010-03-01

    There is strong evidence to suggest that individuals with autism show atypicalities in multiple cognitive domains, including theory of mind (ToM), executive function (EF), and central coherence (CC). In this study, the longitudinal relationships among these 3 aspects of cognition in autism were investigated. Thirty-seven cognitively able children with an autism spectrum condition were assessed on tests targeting ToM (false-belief prediction), EF (planning ability, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control), and CC (local processing) at intake and again 3 years later. Time 1 EF and CC skills were longitudinally predictive of change in children's ToM test performance, independent of age, language, nonverbal intelligence, and early ToM skills. Predictive relations in the opposite direction were not significant, and there were no developmental links between EF and CC. Rather than showing problems in ToM, EF and CC as co-occurring and independent atypicalities in autism, these findings suggest that early domain-general skills play a critical role in shaping the developmental trajectory of children's ToM. PMID:20210511

  13. Predicting Esophagitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Palma, David A.; Senan, Suresh; Oberije, Cary; Belderbos, Jose; Dios, Núria Rodríguez de; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Barriger, R. Bryan; Moreno-Jiménez, Marta; Kim, Tae Hyun; Ramella, Sara; Everitt, Sarah; Rengan, Ramesh; Marks, Lawrence B.; De Ruyck, Kim; and others

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) improves survival compared with sequential treatment for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, but it increases toxicity, particularly radiation esophagitis (RE). Validated predictors of RE for clinical use are lacking. We performed an individual-patient-data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant RE. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 1082 patients who underwent CCRT, including patients from Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (2/3 vs 1/3 of patients). Factors predictive of RE (grade ≥2 and grade ≥3) were assessed using logistic modeling, with the concordance statistic (c statistic) used to evaluate the performance of each model. Results: The median radiation therapy dose delivered was 65 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.1 years. Most patients (91%) received platinum-containing CCRT regimens. The development of RE was common, scored as grade 2 in 348 patients (32.2%), grade 3 in 185 (17.1%), and grade 4 in 10 (0.9%). There were no RE-related deaths. On univariable analysis using the training set, several baseline factors were statistically predictive of RE (P<.05), but only dosimetric factors had good discrimination scores (c > .60). On multivariable analysis, the esophageal volume receiving ≥60 Gy (V60) alone emerged as the best predictor of grade ≥2 and grade ≥3 RE, with good calibration and discrimination. Recursive partitioning identified 3 risk groups: low (V60 <0.07%), intermediate (V60 0.07% to 16.99%), and high (V60 ≥17%). With use of the validation set, the predictive model performed inferiorly for the grade ≥2 endpoint (c = .58) but performed well for the grade ≥3 endpoint (c = .66). Conclusions: Clinically significant RE is common, but life-threatening complications occur in <1% of patients. Although several factors

  14. Prediction of function in daily life following multidisciplinary rehabilitation for individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain; a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Lillefjell, Monica; Krokstad, Steinar; Espnes, Geir Arild

    2007-01-01

    Background The prevalence of chronic musculoskeletal pain is high, with widespread negative economic, psychological, and social consequences for the individual. It is therefore important to find ways to predict the outcome of rehabilitation programmes in terms of function in daily life. The aims of this study were to investigate the improvements over time from multidisciplinary rehabilitation in terms of pain and function, and analyse the relative impact of individual and psychosocial factors as predictors of function in daily life in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Methods A prospective study was conducted among one hundred and forty three (N = 143) musculoskeletal pain patients. Measures of pain, function, and functional health status were obtained at baseline, after 5 weeks of intensive training, at the end of the 57-week rehabilitation programme, and at a 1 year follow-up, using validated self-administrated measures. Linear regression analysis was applied to investigate the relative impact of musculoskeletal pain, individual-, and psychosocial factors in function. Results The participants studied showed a significant increase in function during the 57 weeks rehabilitation period. There was also a significant increase in function from the end of the rehabilitation period (57th week) to the one year follow-up measures. Pain intensity associated significantly with pain experience over all measurement periods. High levels of pain intensity (β = .42**) and pain experience (β = .37*), and poor psychological capacity (β = -.68*) at baseline, as well as poor physiological capacity (β = -.44**) and high levels of anxiety (β = .48**) and depression (β = .58***) at the end of the rehabilitation program were the most important prognostic factors of variance in functioning over the 4 measurement periods. Conclusion The data suggest that physical capacity, emotional distress and coping skills should be priority areas in rehabilitation programmes to

  15. Improving the efficiency and accuracy of individual tree crown delineation from high-density LiDAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Baoxin; Li, Jili; Jing, Linhai; Judah, Aaron

    2014-02-01

    Canopy height model (CHM) derived from LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data has been commonly used to generate segments of individual tree crowns for forest inventory and sustainable management. However, branches, tree crowns, and tree clusters usually have similar shapes and overlapping sizes, which cause current individual tree crown delineation methods to work less effectively on closed canopy, deciduous or mixedwood forests. In addition, the potential of 3-dimentional (3-D) LiDAR data is not fully realized by CHM-oriented methods. In this study, a framework was proposed to take advantage of the simplicity of a CHM-oriented method, detailed vertical structures of tree crowns represented in high-density LiDAR data, and any prior knowledge of tree crowns. The efficiency and accuracy of ITC delineation can be improved. This framework consists of five steps: (1) determination of dominant crown sizes; (2) generation of initial tree segments using a multi-scale segmentation method; (3) identification of “problematic” segments; (4) determination of the number of trees based on the 3-D LiDAR points in each of the identified segments; and (5) refinement of the “problematic” segments by splitting and merging operations. The proposed framework was efficient, since the detailed examination of 3-D LiDAR points was not applied to all initial segments, but only to those needed further evaluations based on prior knowledge. It was also demonstrated to be effective based on an experiment on natural forests in Ontario, Canada. The proposed framework and specific methods yielded crown maps having a good consistency with manual and visual interpretation. The automated method correctly delineated about 74% and 72% of the tree crowns in two plots with mixedwood and deciduous trees, respectively.

  16. Prognosis Predicting Score for Endovascular Treatment of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Risk Modeling Study for Individual Elderly Patients.

    PubMed

    Duan, Guoli; Yang, Pengfei; Li, Qiang; Zuo, Qiao; Zhang, Lei; Hong, Bo; Xu, Yi; Zhao, Wenyuan; Liu, Jianmin; Huang, Qinghai

    2016-02-01

    The elderly patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) have a greater risk of poor clinical outcome after endovascular treatment (EVT) than younger patients do. Hence, it is necessary to explore which factors are associated with poor outcome and develop a predictive score specifically for elderly patients with aSAH receiving EVT. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive score for 1-year outcomes in individual elderly patients with aSAH underwent EVT.In this 10-year prospective study, 520 consecutive aSAH elderly (age ≥ 60 years) patients underwent EVT in a single center were included. The risk factors, periprocedural, and 1-year follow-up data of all patients were entered in a specific prospective database. The modified Rankin scale was used for evaluating clinical outcome. To optimize the model's predictive capacity, the original matrix was randomly divided in 2 submatrices (learning and testing). The predictive score was developed using Arabic numerals for all variables based on the variable coefficients (β) of multivariable logistic regression analysis in the learning set and the predictive performance evaluation was assessed in the testing set. The risk classes were constructed using classification criteria based on sensitivity and specificity. The poor outcome rate at 1 year was 26.15%. Six risk factors, including age, hypertension, Hunt-Hess scale, Fisher scale, aneurysm location, and periprocedural complications, were independently associated with poor outcome and assembled the Changhai score. The discriminative power analysis with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Changhai score was statistically significant (0.864, 0.824-0.904, P < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the Changhai score were 82.07% and 78.06%, respectively. Our study indicated that age, hypertension, Hunt-Hess scale, Fisher scale, aneurysm location, and periprocedural complications were independent risk

  17. Development of effluent removal prediction model efficiency in septic sludge treatment plant through clonal selection algorithm.

    PubMed

    Ting, Sie Chun; Ismail, A R; Malek, M A

    2013-11-15

    This study aims at developing a novel effluent removal management tool for septic sludge treatment plants (SSTP) using a clonal selection algorithm (CSA). The proposed CSA articulates the idea of utilizing an artificial immune system (AIS) to identify the behaviour of the SSTP, that is, using a sequence batch reactor (SBR) technology for treatment processes. The novelty of this study is the development of a predictive SSTP model for effluent discharge adopting the human immune system. Septic sludge from the individual septic tanks and package plants will be desuldged and treated in SSTP before discharging the wastewater into a waterway. The Borneo Island of Sarawak is selected as the case study. Currently, there are only two SSTPs in Sarawak, namely the Matang SSTP and the Sibu SSTP, and they are both using SBR technology. Monthly effluent discharges from 2007 to 2011 in the Matang SSTP are used in this study. Cross-validation is performed using data from the Sibu SSTP from April 2011 to July 2012. Both chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS) in the effluent were analysed in this study. The model was validated and tested before forecasting the future effluent performance. The CSA-based SSTP model was simulated using MATLAB 7.10. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correction coefficient (R) were used as performance indexes. In this study, it was found that the proposed prediction model was successful up to 84 months for the COD and 109 months for the TSS. In conclusion, the proposed CSA-based SSTP prediction model is indeed beneficial as an engineering tool to forecast the long-run performance of the SSTP and in turn, prevents infringement of future environmental balance in other towns in Sarawak. PMID:23968912

  18. B cells pulsed with Helicobacter pylori antigen efficiently activate memory CD8+ T cells from H. pylori-infected individuals.

    PubMed

    Azem, Josef; Svennerholm, Ann-Mari; Lundin, B Samuel

    2006-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori infection causes chronic gastritis that may progress to peptic ulcers or gastric adenocarcinoma and thereby cause major world-wide health problems. Previous studies have shown that CD4+ T cells are important in the immune response to H. pylori in humans, but the role of CD8+ T cells is less clear. In order to study the CD8+ T cell response to H. pylori in greater detail, we have evaluated efficient conditions for activation of CD8+ T cells in vitro. We show that H. pylori-reactive CD8+ T cells can be activated most efficiently by B cells or dendritic cells pulsed with H. pylori antigens. We further show that the majority of CD8+ T cells in H. pylori-infected gastric mucosa are memory cells, and that memory CD8+ T cells sorted from peripheral blood of H. pylori-infected individuals respond 15-fold more to H. pylori urease compared to memory cells from uninfected subjects. We conclude that CD8+ T cells do participate in the immune response to H. pylori, and this may have implications for the development of more severe disease outcomes in H. pylori-infected subjects. PMID:16324887

  19. Efficient prediction of terahertz quantum cascade laser dynamics from steady-state simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Agnew, G.; Lim, Y. L.; Nikolić, M.; Rakić, A. D.; Grier, A.; Valavanis, A.; Cooper, J.; Dean, P.; Khanna, S. P.; Lachab, M.; Linfield, E. H.; Davies, A. G.; Ikonić, Z.; Indjin, D.; Taimre, T.; Harrison, P.

    2015-04-20

    Terahertz-frequency quantum cascade lasers (THz QCLs) based on bound-to-continuum active regions are difficult to model owing to their large number of quantum states. We present a computationally efficient reduced rate equation (RE) model that reproduces the experimentally observed variation of THz power with respect to drive current and heat-sink temperature. We also present dynamic (time-domain) simulations under a range of drive currents and predict an increase in modulation bandwidth as the current approaches the peak of the light–current curve, as observed experimentally in mid-infrared QCLs. We account for temperature and bias dependence of the carrier lifetimes, gain, and injection efficiency, calculated from a full rate equation model. The temperature dependence of the simulated threshold current, emitted power, and cut-off current are thus all reproduced accurately with only one fitting parameter, the interface roughness, in the full REs. We propose that the model could therefore be used for rapid dynamical simulation of QCL designs.

  20. Energy-Efficient Control with Harvesting Predictions for Solar-Powered Wireless Sensor Networks.

    PubMed

    Zou, Tengyue; Lin, Shouying; Feng, Qijie; Chen, Yanlian

    2016-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks equipped with rechargeable batteries are useful for outdoor environmental monitoring. However, the severe energy constraints of the sensor nodes present major challenges for long-term applications. To achieve sustainability, solar cells can be used to acquire energy from the environment. Unfortunately, the energy supplied by the harvesting system is generally intermittent and considerably influenced by the weather. To improve the energy efficiency and extend the lifetime of the networks, we propose algorithms for harvested energy prediction using environmental shadow detection. Thus, the sensor nodes can adjust their scheduling plans accordingly to best suit their energy production and residual battery levels. Furthermore, we introduce clustering and routing selection methods to optimize the data transmission, and a Bayesian network is used for warning notifications of bottlenecks along the path. The entire system is implemented on a real-time Texas Instruments CC2530 embedded platform, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms sustain the networks' activities in an uninterrupted and efficient manner. PMID:26742042

  1. Energy-Efficient Control with Harvesting Predictions for Solar-Powered Wireless Sensor Networks

    PubMed Central

    Zou, Tengyue; Lin, Shouying; Feng, Qijie; Chen, Yanlian

    2016-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks equipped with rechargeable batteries are useful for outdoor environmental monitoring. However, the severe energy constraints of the sensor nodes present major challenges for long-term applications. To achieve sustainability, solar cells can be used to acquire energy from the environment. Unfortunately, the energy supplied by the harvesting system is generally intermittent and considerably influenced by the weather. To improve the energy efficiency and extend the lifetime of the networks, we propose algorithms for harvested energy prediction using environmental shadow detection. Thus, the sensor nodes can adjust their scheduling plans accordingly to best suit their energy production and residual battery levels. Furthermore, we introduce clustering and routing selection methods to optimize the data transmission, and a Bayesian network is used for warning notifications of bottlenecks along the path. The entire system is implemented on a real-time Texas Instruments CC2530 embedded platform, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms sustain the networks’ activities in an uninterrupted and efficient manner. PMID:26742042

  2. Predicting anti-fat attitudes: individual differences based on actual and perceived body size, weight importance, entity mindset, and ethnicity.

    PubMed

    Scott, Shannon Rich; Rosen, Lisa H

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine the relative impact of actual and perceived weight, weight importance, entity mindset, and ethnicity on anti-fat attitudes as well as to examine whether certain variables play the role of mediator. Participants included a multiethnic U.S. sample of 923 female undergraduates who completed a series of measures online. Lower BMI, higher perceived weight, higher importance of weight, endorsement of an entity mindset, and identification as White as compared to Black, Hispanic, or Asian predicted higher overall anti-fat attitudes. Examination of the individual Antifat Attitudes Questionnaire subscales (i.e. dislike, fear of fat, and willpower) using Relative Weight Analysis suggested that weight importance is an important predictor of multiple aspects of anti-fat attitudes. In addition, weight importance mediated the relationship between perceived weight and fear of fat as well as the relationship between ethnicity and dislike. Implications of findings and future research directions are discussed. PMID:25326878

  3. Efficient estimation and prediction for the Bayesian binary spatial model with flexible link functions.

    PubMed

    Roy, Vivekananda; Evangelou, Evangelos; Zhu, Zhengyuan

    2016-03-01

    Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular models for spatial data with a non-Gaussian response. Binomial SGLMMs with logit or probit link functions are often used to model spatially dependent binomial random variables. It is known that for independent binomial data, the robit regression model provides a more robust (against extreme observations) alternative to the more popular logistic and probit models. In this article, we introduce a Bayesian spatial robit model for spatially dependent binomial data. Since constructing a meaningful prior on the link function parameter as well as the spatial correlation parameters in SGLMMs is difficult, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach for the estimation of these parameters as well as for the prediction of the random effects. The EB methodology is implemented by efficient importance sampling methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our simulation study shows that the robit model is robust against model misspecification, and our EB method results in estimates with less bias than full Bayesian (FB) analysis. The methodology is applied to a Celastrus Orbiculatus data, and a Rhizoctonia root data. For the former, which is known to contain outlying observations, the robit model is shown to do better for predicting the spatial distribution of an invasive species. For the latter, our approach is doing as well as the classical models for predicting the disease severity for a root disease, as the probit link is shown to be appropriate. Though this article is written for Binomial SGLMMs for brevity, the EB methodology is more general and can be applied to other types of SGLMMs. In the accompanying R package geoBayes, implementations for other SGLMMs such as Poisson and Gamma SGLMMs are provided. PMID:26331903

  4. A Method for Efficient Transmittance Spectrum Prediction of Transparent Composite Electrodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Zhao; Dhar, A.; Alford, T. L.

    2015-07-01

    The interest in indium-free transparent composite electrode (TCE), a thin metal layer embedded between two transparent metal oxide (TMO) layers resulting in TMO/metal/TMO composite structure, has grown recently with the advent of their high figures of merit and its potential application in photovoltaic applications. However, most of the work to date has focused on experimentally producing the best optically transmitting TCE. To better design TCEs and minimize experimental work, it would be useful to develop a model that predicts the optical transmission. In the current work, the transfer-matrix method is employed to calculate the transmittance spectrum of TCE. To validate this approach, the transmittance spectra of TiO2/Au/TiO2 and TiO2/Ag/TiO2 multilayer thin-film TCEs are calculated with use of extracted material parameters. The calculated transmittance spectrum of TiO2/Au/TiO2 matches the measured spectrum quite well. However, the calcualted transmittance of TiO2/Ag/TiO2 is higher than its measured transmittance. The presence of voids in the Ag film is probably responsible for the decreased transmittance of the TiO2/Ag/TiO2 sample, and the continuous Au film in TiO2/Au/TiO2 ensures a good agreement between transmittance prediction and measurement. Our approach is a reliable tool to predict the optical transmittance of TCE with continuous films, and it can efficiently expedite the selection from numerous possible combinations of transparent metal oxides and metals when developing TCEs for future photovoltaic applications. It can also serve as a convenient method to assess the continuity of embedded metal layer.

  5. HHMMiR: efficient de novo prediction of microRNAs using hierarchical hidden Markov models

    PubMed Central

    Kadri, Sabah; Hinman, Veronica; Benos, Panayiotis V

    2009-01-01

    Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding single-stranded RNAs (20–23 nts) that are known to act as post-transcriptional and translational regulators of gene expression. Although, they were initially overlooked, their role in many important biological processes, such as development, cell differentiation, and cancer has been established in recent times. In spite of their biological significance, the identification of miRNA genes in newly sequenced organisms is still based, to a large degree, on extensive use of evolutionary conservation, which is not always available. Results We have developed HHMMiR, a novel approach for de novo miRNA hairpin prediction in the absence of evolutionary conservation. Our method implements a Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (HHMM) that utilizes region-based structural as well as sequence information of miRNA precursors. We first established a template for the structure of a typical miRNA hairpin by summarizing data from publicly available databases. We then used this template to develop the HHMM topology. Conclusion Our algorithm achieved average sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 88%, on 10-fold cross-validation of human miRNA precursor data. We also show that this model, trained on human sequences, works well on hairpins from other vertebrate as well as invertebrate species. Furthermore, the human trained model was able to correctly classify ~97% of plant miRNA precursors. The success of this approach in such a diverse set of species indicates that sequence conservation is not necessary for miRNA prediction. This may lead to efficient prediction of miRNA genes in virtually any organism. PMID:19208136

  6. Improving Computational Efficiency of Model Predictive Control Genetic Algorithms for Real-Time Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minsker, B. S.; Zimmer, A. L.; Ostfeld, A.; Schmidt, A.

    2014-12-01

    Enabling real-time decision support, particularly under conditions of uncertainty, requires computationally efficient algorithms that can rapidly generate recommendations. In this paper, a suite of model predictive control (MPC) genetic algorithms are developed and tested offline to explore their value for reducing CSOs during real-time use in a deep-tunnel sewer system. MPC approaches include the micro-GA, the probability-based compact GA, and domain-specific GA methods that reduce the number of decision variable values analyzed within the sewer hydraulic model, thus reducing algorithm search space. Minimum fitness and constraint values achieved by all GA approaches, as well as computational times required to reach the minimum values, are compared to large population sizes with long convergence times. Optimization results for a subset of the Chicago combined sewer system indicate that genetic algorithm variations with coarse decision variable representation, eventually transitioning to the entire range of decision variable values, are most efficient at addressing the CSO control problem. Although diversity-enhancing micro-GAs evaluate a larger search space and exhibit shorter convergence times, these representations do not reach minimum fitness and constraint values. The domain-specific GAs prove to be the most efficient and are used to test CSO sensitivity to energy costs, CSO penalties, and pressurization constraint values. The results show that CSO volumes are highly dependent on the tunnel pressurization constraint, with reductions of 13% to 77% possible with less conservative operational strategies. Because current management practices may not account for varying costs at CSO locations and electricity rate changes in the summer and winter, the sensitivity of the results is evaluated for variable seasonal and diurnal CSO penalty costs and electricity-related system maintenance costs, as well as different sluice gate constraint levels. These findings indicate

  7. Individual differences in common factors of emotional traits and executive functions predict functional connectivity of the amygdala.

    PubMed

    Rohr, C S; Dreyer, F R; Aderka, I M; Margulies, D S; Frisch, S; Villringer, A; Okon-Singer, H

    2015-10-15

    Evidence suggests that individual differences in emotion control are associated with frontoparietal-limbic networks and linked to emotional traits and executive functions. In a first attempt to directly target the link between emotional traits and executive functions using resting-state fMRI analysis, 43 healthy adults completed a test battery including executive tasks and emotional trait self-assessments that were subjected to a principal component analysis. Of the three factors detected, two explained 40.4% of the variance and were further investigated. Both factors suggest a relation between emotional traits and executive functions. Specifically, the first factor consisted of measures related to inhibitory control and negative affect, and the second factor was related to reward and positive affect. To investigate whether this interplay between emotional traits and executive functions is reflected in neural connectivity, we used resting-state fMRI to explore the functional connectivity of the amygdala as a starting point, and progressed to other seed-based analyses based on the initial findings. We found that the first factor predicted the strength of connectivity between brain regions known to be involved in the cognitive control of emotion, including the amygdala and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, whereas the second factor predicted the strength of connectivity between brain regions known to be involved in reward and attention, including the amygdala, the caudate and the thalamus. These findings suggest that individual differences in the ability to inhibit negative affect are mediated by prefrontal-limbic pathways, while the ability to be positive and use rewarding information is mediated by a network that includes the amygdala and thalamostriatal regions. PMID:26108101

  8. Polymerization efficiency of curing lamps: a universal energy conversion relationship predictive of conversion of resin-based composite.

    PubMed

    Halvorson, Rolf H; Erickson, Robert L; Davidson, Carel L

    2004-01-01

    A universal energy-conversion relationship (ECRu) predictive of conversion of a resin-based composite (RBC) polymerized with any light source has been described. This relationship was derived from an energy conversion relationship for RBC polymerized with a tungsten-halogen lamp and the lamp's efficiency relative to a hypothetical standard lamp. The ECRu was then used to predict conversion throughout RBC polymerized with an LED lamp using the lamp's relative efficiency compared to the standard lamp. The universal energy scale has also been described as predictive of scrape-back lengths for this RBC family when polymerized with any light source. Despite a 31% greater relative efficiency, scrape-back lengths from RBC polymerized using the LED lamp were predicted to be only 6% greater than those polymerized with the tungsten-halogen lamp when RBC is polymerized on an equal energy basis. This result was experimentally verified. PMID:14753341

  9. School Rankings, Department Rankings, and Individual Accomplishments: What Factors Predict Obtaining Employment After the PhD?

    PubMed

    Stenstrom, Douglas M; Curtis, Mathew; Iyer, Ravi

    2013-03-01

    The outcome of a graduate student's hunt for employment is often attributed to the student's own accomplishments, the reputation of the department, and the reputation of the university. In 2007, a national survey of psychology graduate students was conducted to assess accomplishments and experiences in graduate school, part of which was an assessment of employment after completion of the doctorate (PhD). Five hundred and fifty-one respondents who had applied for employment reported whether they had obtained employment and in what capacity. Survey results were then integrated with the National Research Council's most recent official ranking system of academic departments. The strongest predictor of employment was department-level rankings even while controlling for individual accomplishments, such as publications, posters, and teaching experience. Equally accomplished applicants for an employment position were not equal, apparently, if they graduated from differently ranked departments. The results also show the degree to which school-level rankings, department-level rankings, and individual accomplishments uniquely predict the various types of employment, including jobs at PhD-granting institutions, master's-granting institutions, liberal arts colleges, 2-year schools, outside academia, or no employment at all. PMID:26172503

  10. Developmental Trajectories in Toddlers’ Self-restraint Predict Individual Differences in Executive Functions 14 Years Later: A Behavioral Genetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Naomi P.; Miyake, Akira; Robinson, JoAnn L.; Hewitt, John K.

    2011-01-01

    We examined whether self-restraint in early childhood predicted individual differences in three executive functions (EFs; inhibiting prepotent responses, updating working memory, and shifting task sets) in late adolescence in a sample of ~950 twins. At ages 14, 20, 24, and 36 months, the children were shown an attractive toy and told not to touch it for 30 seconds. Latency to touch the toy increased with age, and latent class growth modeling distinguished two groups of children that differed in their latencies to touch the toy at all 4 time points. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the three EFs (measured with latent variables at age 17 years) were decomposed into a Common EF factor (isomorphic to response inhibition ability) and two factors specific to updating and shifting, respectively. Less restrained children had significantly lower scores on the Common EF factor, equivalent scores on the Updating-specific factor, and higher scores on the Shifting-specific factor than the more restrained children. The less restrained group also had lower IQ scores, but this effect was entirely mediated by the EF components. Twin models indicated that the associations were primarily genetic in origin for the Common EF variable but split between genetics and nonshared environment for the Shifting-specific variable. These results suggest a biological relation between individual differences in self-restraint and EFs, one that begins early in life and persists into late adolescence. PMID:21668099

  11. Normalization of Pain-Evoked Neural Responses Using Spontaneous EEG Improves the Performance of EEG-Based Cross-Individual Pain Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Bai, Yanru; Huang, Gan; Tu, Yiheng; Tan, Ao; Hung, Yeung Sam; Zhang, Zhiguo

    2016-01-01

    An effective physiological pain assessment method that complements the gold standard of self-report is highly desired in pain clinical research and practice. Recent studies have shown that pain-evoked electroencephalography (EEG) responses could be used as a readout of perceived pain intensity. Existing EEG-based pain assessment is normally achieved by cross-individual prediction (i.e., to train a prediction model from a group of individuals and to apply the model on a new individual), so its performance is seriously hampered by the substantial inter-individual variability in pain-evoked EEG responses. In this study, to reduce the inter-individual variability in pain-evoked EEG and to improve the accuracy of cross-individual pain prediction, we examined the relationship between pain-evoked EEG, spontaneous EEG, and pain perception on a pain EEG dataset, where a large number of laser pulses (>100) with a wide energy range were delivered. Motivated by our finding that an individual's pain-evoked EEG responses is significantly correlated with his/her spontaneous EEG in terms of magnitude, we proposed a normalization method for pain-evoked EEG responses using one's spontaneous EEG to reduce the inter-individual variability. In addition, a nonlinear relationship between the level of pain perception and pain-evoked EEG responses was obtained, which inspired us to further develop a new two-stage pain prediction strategy, a binary classification of low-pain and high-pain trials followed by a continuous prediction for high-pain trials only, both of which used spontaneous-EEG-normalized magnitudes of evoked EEG responses as features. Results show that the proposed normalization strategy can effectively reduce the inter-individual variability in pain-evoked responses, and the two-stage pain prediction method can lead to a higher prediction accuracy. PMID:27148028

  12. Effectiveness of shrinkage and variable selection methods for the prediction of complex human traits using data from distantly related individuals.

    PubMed

    Berger, Swetlana; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Veturi, Yogasudha; Simianer, Henner; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2015-03-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have detected large numbers of variants associated with complex human traits and diseases. However, the proportion of variance explained by GWAS-significant single nucleotide polymorphisms has been usually small. This brought interest in the use of whole-genome regression (WGR) methods. However, there has been limited research on the factors that affect prediction accuracy (PA) of WGRs when applied to human data of distantly related individuals. Here, we examine, using real human genotypes and simulated phenotypes, how trait complexity, marker-quantitative trait loci (QTL) linkage disequilibrium (LD), and the model used affect the performance of WGRs. Our results indicated that the estimated rate of missing heritability is dependent on the extent of marker-QTL LD. However, this parameter was not greatly affected by trait complexity. Regarding PA our results indicated that: (a) under perfect marker-QTL LD WGR can achieve moderately high prediction accuracy, and with simple genetic architectures variable selection methods outperform shrinkage procedures and (b) under imperfect marker-QTL LD, variable selection methods can achieved reasonably good PA with simple or moderately complex genetic architectures; however, the PA of these methods deteriorated as trait complexity increases and with highly complex traits variable selection and shrinkage methods both performed poorly. This was confirmed with an analysis of human height. PMID:25600682

  13. Effectiveness of Shrinkage and Variable Selection Methods for the Prediction of Complex Human Traits using Data from Distantly Related Individuals

    PubMed Central

    Pérez‐Rodríguez, Paulino; Veturi, Yogasudha; Simianer, Henner; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2015-01-01

    Summary Genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) have detected large numbers of variants associated with complex human traits and diseases. However, the proportion of variance explained by GWAS‐significant single nucleotide polymorphisms has been usually small. This brought interest in the use of whole‐genome regression (WGR) methods. However, there has been limited research on the factors that affect prediction accuracy (PA) of WGRs when applied to human data of distantly related individuals. Here, we examine, using real human genotypes and simulated phenotypes, how trait complexity, marker‐quantitative trait loci (QTL) linkage disequilibrium (LD), and the model used affect the performance of WGRs. Our results indicated that the estimated rate of missing heritability is dependent on the extent of marker‐QTL LD. However, this parameter was not greatly affected by trait complexity. Regarding PA our results indicated that: (a) under perfect marker‐QTL LD WGR can achieve moderately high prediction accuracy, and with simple genetic architectures variable selection methods outperform shrinkage procedures and (b) under imperfect marker‐QTL LD, variable selection methods can achieved reasonably good PA with simple or moderately complex genetic architectures; however, the PA of these methods deteriorated as trait complexity increases and with highly complex traits variable selection and shrinkage methods both performed poorly. This was confirmed with an analysis of human height. PMID:25600682

  14. Anti-Apolipoprotein A-1 IgG Levels Predict Coronary Artery Calcification in Obese but Otherwise Healthy Individuals

    PubMed Central

    Quercioli, Alessandra; Montecucco, Fabrizio; Galan, Katia; Ratib, Osman; Roux-Lombard, Pascale; Pagano, Sabrina; Mach, François; Schindler, Thomas H.; Vuilleumier, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    We aimed at determining whether anti-apolipoprotein (apo) A-1 IgG levels are independent predictors of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and coronary endothelial dysfunction in obese and nonobese subjects without cardiovascular disease. 48 nonobese and 43 obese subjects were included. CAC score was measured by thorax scanner and defined by an Agatston score > 0. Coronary endothelial dysfunction was determined by measuring myocardial blood flow responses to cold pressor test (CPT) on PET/CT. Serum anti-apoA-1 IgG levels were measured by ELISA. Prevalence of coronary calcification was similar between the two study groups, but the prevalence of coronary endothelial dysfunction was higher in obese subjects. Anti-apoA-1 IgG levels and positivity rate were higher in obese than in nonobese individuals. CAC score was higher in anti-apoA-1 IgG positive subjects. ROC analyses indicated that anti-apoA-1 IgG levels were significant predictors of CAC > 0, but not of coronary endothelial dysfunction with a negative predictive value of 94%. Anti-apoA-1 IgG positivity was associated with a 17-fold independent increased risk of CAC > 0. In conclusion, those preliminary results indicate that anti-apoA-1 IgG autoantibodies are raised in obese subjects and independently predict the presence of coronary calcification in this population but not the presence of coronary endothelial dysfunction. PMID:23258951

  15. Stress and success: individual differences in the glucocorticoid stress response predict behavior and reproductive success under high predation risk.

    PubMed

    Vitousek, Maren N; Jenkins, Brittany R; Safran, Rebecca J

    2014-11-01

    A fundamental element of how vertebrates respond to stressors is by rapidly elevating circulating glucocorticoid hormones. Individual variation in the magnitude of the glucocorticoid stress response has been linked with reproductive success and survival. But while the adaptive value of this response is believed to stem in part from changes in the expression of hormone-mediated behaviors, it is not clear how the behavior of stronger and weaker glucocorticoid responders differs during reproduction, or during exposure to ecologically relevant stressors. Here we report that in a population of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster) experiencing high rates of nest predation, circulating levels of corticosterone (the primary avian glucocorticoid) during exposure to a standardized stressor predict aspects of subsequent behavior and fitness. Individuals that mounted a stronger corticosterone stress response during the early reproductive period did not differ in clutch size, but fledged fewer offspring. Parents with higher stress-induced corticosterone during the early reproductive period later provisioned their nestlings at lower rates. Additionally, in the presence of a model predator stress-induced corticosterone was positively associated with the latency to return to the nest, but only among birds that were observed to return. Model comparisons revealed that stress-induced hormones were better predictors of the behavioral and fitness effects of exposure to transient, ecologically relevant stressors than baseline corticosterone. These findings are consistent with functional links between individual variation in the hormonal and behavioral response to stressors. If such links occur, then selection on the heritable components of the corticosterone stress response could promote adaptation to novel environments or predation regimes. PMID:25461975

  16. Predictable and efficient carbon sequestration in the North Pacific Ocean supported by symbiotic nitrogen fixation

    PubMed Central

    Karl, David M.; Church, Matthew J.; Dore, John E.; Letelier, Ricardo M.; Mahaffey, Claire

    2012-01-01

    The atmospheric and deep sea reservoirs of carbon dioxide are linked via physical, chemical, and biological processes. The last of these include photosynthesis, particle settling, and organic matter remineralization, and are collectively termed the “biological carbon pump.” Herein, we present results from a 13-y (1992–2004) sediment trap experiment conducted in the permanently oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre that document a large, rapid, and predictable summertime (July 15–August 15) pulse in particulate matter export to the deep sea (4,000 m). Peak daily fluxes of particulate matter during the summer export pulse (SEP) average 408, 283, 24.1, 1.1, and 67.5 μmol·m−2·d−1 for total carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus (PP), and biogenic silica, respectively. The SEP is approximately threefold greater than mean wintertime particle fluxes and fuels more efficient carbon sequestration because of low remineralization during downward transit that leads to elevated total carbon/PP and organic carbon/PP particle stoichiometry (371:1 and 250:1, respectively). Our long-term observations suggest that seasonal changes in the microbial assemblage, namely, summertime increases in the biomass and productivity of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria in association with diatoms, are the main cause of the prominent SEP. The recurrent SEP is enigmatic because it is focused in time despite the absence of any obvious predictable stimulus or habitat condition. We hypothesize that changes in day length (photoperiodism) may be an important environmental cue to initiate aggregation and subsequent export of organic matter to the deep sea. PMID:22308450

  17. Predicting the Timing and Magnitude of Tropical Mosquito Population Peaks for Maximizing Control Efficiency

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Guo-Jing; Brook, Barry W.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

    2009-01-01

    The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance () occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in . Model weights, estimated using AICc, were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations. PMID:19238191

  18. Early language processing efficiency predicts later receptive vocabulary outcomes in children born preterm.

    PubMed

    Marchman, Virginia A; Adams, Katherine A; Loi, Elizabeth C; Fernald, Anne; Feldman, Heidi M

    2016-01-01

    As rates of prematurity continue to rise, identifying which preterm children are at increased risk for learning disabilities is a public health imperative. Identifying continuities between early and later skills in this vulnerable population can also illuminate fundamental neuropsychological processes that support learning in all children. At 18 months adjusted age, we used socioeconomic status (SES), medical variables, parent-reported vocabulary, scores on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (third edition) language composite, and children's lexical processing speed in the looking-while-listening (LWL) task as predictor variables in a sample of 30 preterm children. Receptive vocabulary as measured by the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (fourth edition) at 36 months was the outcome. Receptive vocabulary was correlated with SES, but uncorrelated with degree of prematurity or a composite of medical risk. Importantly, lexical processing speed was the strongest predictor of receptive vocabulary (r = -.81), accounting for 30% unique variance. Individual differences in lexical processing efficiency may be able to serve as a marker for information processing skills that are critical for language learning. PMID:26031342

  19. Individual Differences in Acute Pain-induced Endogenous Analgesia Predict Time to Resolution of Postoperative Pain in the Rat

    PubMed Central

    Peters, Christopher M.; Hayashida, Ken-ichiro; Suto, Takashi; Houle, Timothy T.; Aschenbrenner, Carol A.; Martin, Thomas J.; Eisenach, James C.

    2014-01-01

    Background Chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP), a significant public health problem, occurs in 10-50% of patients undergoing major surgery. Acute pain induces endogenous analgesia termed conditioned pain modulation (CPM), and the strength of CPM preoperatively predicts the likelihood of CPSP. The relationship between CPM and recovery from surgery has not been examined in preclinical models. Methods CPM was assessed in individual rats and correlated with each animal’s time course of recovery of hypersensitivity following partial spinal nerve ligation (pSNL). The role of descending noradrenergic pathways in the spinal cord to mechanisms of CPM and recovery was tested using idazoxan to block noradrenergic receptors or antidopamine β hydroxylase conjugated saporin (DβH-saporin) to ablate these pathways. Behavioral hypersensitivity, static weight bearing and spinal glial activation were measured after pSNL. Results The strength of CPM varied over two-fold between individuals and was directly correlated with the slope of recovery from hypersensitivity after surgery (P < 0.0001, r = 0.660). CPM induced release of norepinephrine in the spinal cord and was partially blocked by intrathecal idazoxan or DβH-saporin. DβH-saporin also slowed recovery and enhanced spinal glial activation following pSNL surgery. Ongoing activation of these pathways was critical to sustained recovery, since intrathecal DβH-saporin given 7 weeks after recovery reinstituted hypersensitivity, while having no effect in animals without previous surgery. Conclusions Collectively, these studies provide a clear back-translation from clinical observations of CPM and CPSP and suggest that the ability to engage ongoing descending endogenous noradrenergic signaling may be critical in determining time course of recovery from hypersensitivity after surgery. PMID:25581910

  20. Chaos in Balance: Non-Linear Measures of Postural Control Predict Individual Variations in Visual Illusions of Motion

    PubMed Central

    Apthorp, Deborah; Nagle, Fintan; Palmisano, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Visually-induced illusions of self-motion (vection) can be compelling for some people, but they are subject to large individual variations in strength. Do these variations depend, at least in part, on the extent to which people rely on vision to maintain their postural stability? We investigated by comparing physical posture measures to subjective vection ratings. Using a Bertec balance plate in a brightly-lit room, we measured 13 participants' excursions of the centre of foot pressure (CoP) over a 60-second period with eyes open and with eyes closed during quiet stance. Subsequently, we collected vection strength ratings for large optic flow displays while seated, using both verbal ratings and online throttle measures. We also collected measures of postural sway (changes in anterior-posterior CoP) in response to the same visual motion stimuli while standing on the plate. The magnitude of standing sway in response to expanding optic flow (in comparison to blank fixation periods) was predictive of both verbal and throttle measures for seated vection. In addition, the ratio between eyes-open and eyes-closed CoP excursions during quiet stance (using the area of postural sway) significantly predicted seated vection for both measures. Interestingly, these relationships were weaker for contracting optic flow displays, though these produced both stronger vection and more sway. Next we used a non-linear analysis (recurrence quantification analysis, RQA) of the fluctuations in anterior-posterior position during quiet stance (both with eyes closed and eyes open); this was a much stronger predictor of seated vection for both expanding and contracting stimuli. Given the complex multisensory integration involved in postural control, our study adds to the growing evidence that non-linear measures drawn from complexity theory may provide a more informative measure of postural sway than the conventional linear measures. PMID:25462216

  1. Fast coding unit selection method for high efficiency video coding intra prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Jian

    2013-07-01

    The high efficiency video coding (HEVC) video coding standard under development can achieve higher compression performance than previous standards, such as MPEG-4, H.263, and H.264/AVC. To improve coding performance, a quad-tree coding structure and a robust rate-distortion (RD) optimization technique is used to select an optimum coding mode. Since the RD costs of all possible coding modes are computed to decide an optimum mode, high computational complexity is induced in the encoder. A fast learning-based coding unit (CU) size selection method is presented for HEVC intra prediction. The proposed algorithm is based on theoretical analysis that shows the non-normalized histogram of oriented gradient (n-HOG) can be used to help select CU size. A codebook is constructed offline by clustering n-HOGs of training sequences for each CU size. The optimum size is determined by comparing the n-HOG of the current CU with the learned codebooks. Experimental results show that the CU size selection scheme speeds up intra coding significantly with negligible loss of peak signal-to-noise ratio.

  2. Predicting the disinfection efficiency range in chlorine contact tanks through a CFD-based approach.

    PubMed

    Angeloudis, Athanasios; Stoesser, Thorsten; Falconer, Roger A

    2014-09-01

    In this study three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models, incorporating appropriately selected kinetic models, were developed to simulate the processes of chlorine decay, pathogen inactivation and the formation of potentially carcinogenic by-products in disinfection contact tanks (CTs). Currently, the performance of CT facilities largely relies on Hydraulic Efficiency Indicators (HEIs), extracted from experimentally derived Residence Time Distribution (RTD) curves. This approach has more recently been aided with the application of CFD models, which can be calibrated to predict accurately RTDs, enabling the assessment of disinfection facilities prior to their construction. However, as long as it depends on HEIs, the CT design process does not directly take into consideration the disinfection biochemistry which needs to be optimized. The main objective of this study is to address this issue by refining the modelling practices to simulate some reactive processes of interest, while acknowledging the uneven contact time stemming from the RTD curves. Initially, the hydraulic performances of seven CT design variations were reviewed through available experimental and computational data. In turn, the same design configurations were tested using numerical modelling techniques, featuring kinetic models that enable the quantification of disinfection operational parameters. Results highlight that the optimization of the hydrodynamic conditions facilitates a more uniform disinfectant contact time, which correspond to greater levels of pathogen inactivation and a more controlled by-product accumulation. PMID:24835958

  3. Predicting performance on the Raven’s Matrices: The roles of associative learning and retrieval efficiency

    PubMed Central

    Lilienthal, Lindsey; Tamez, Elaine; Myerson, Joel; Hale, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that performance on Williams and Pearlberg’s (2006) complex associative learning task is a good predictor of fluid intelligence. This task is similar in structure to that used in studying the fan effect (Anderson, 1974), as both tasks involve forming multiple associations and require retrieval in the face of interference. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relations among complex associative learning, working memory, and fluid intelligence. Specifically, we asked whether retrieval efficiency, as measured by the fan effect, could account for the relation between complex associative learning and performance on Raven’s Advanced Progressive Matrices. Consistent with previous findings, complex associative learning predicted Raven’s performance, but the fan effect did not account for this relation. Notably, the learning phase of the fan effect task was significantly correlated with both complex associative learning and Raven’s performance, providing further support for the importance of learning as a predictor of fluid intelligence. PMID:24187609

  4. An efficient computational method for predicting rotational diffusion tensors of globular proteins using an ellipsoid representation.

    PubMed

    Ryabov, Yaroslav E; Geraghty, Charles; Varshney, Amitabh; Fushman, David

    2006-12-01

    We propose a new computational method for predicting rotational diffusion properties of proteins in solution. The method is based on the idea of representing protein surface as an ellipsoid shell. In contrast to other existing approaches this method uses principal component analysis of protein surface coordinates, which results in a substantial increase in the computational efficiency of the method. Direct comparison with the experimental data as well as with the recent computational approach (Garcia de la Torre; et al. J. Magn. Reson. 2000, B147, 138-146), based on representation of protein surface as a set of small spherical friction elements, shows that the method proposed here reproduces experimental data with at least the same level of accuracy and precision as the other approach, while being approximately 500 times faster. Using the new method we investigated the effect of hydration layer and protein surface topography on the rotational diffusion properties of a protein. We found that a hydration layer constructed of approximately one monolayer of water molecules smoothens the protein surface and effectively doubles the overall tumbling time. We also calculated the rotational diffusion tensors for a set of 841 protein structures representing the known protein folds. Our analysis suggests that an anisotropic rotational diffusion model is generally required for NMR relaxation data analysis in single-domain proteins, and that the axially symmetric model could be sufficient for these purposes in approximately half of the proteins. PMID:17132010

  5. Global Image Dissimilarity in Macaque Inferotemporal Cortex Predicts Human Visual Search Efficiency

    PubMed Central

    Sripati, Arun P.; Olson, Carl R.

    2010-01-01

    Finding a target in a visual scene can be easy or difficult depending on the nature of the distractors. Research in humans has suggested that search is more difficult the more similar the target and distractors are to each other. However, it has not yielded an objective definition of similarity. We hypothesized that visual search performance depends on similarity as determined by the degree to which two images elicit overlapping patterns of neuronal activity in visual cortex. To test this idea, we recorded from neurons in monkey inferotemporal cortex (IT) and assessed visual search performance in humans using pairs of images formed from the same local features in different global arrangements. The ability of IT neurons to discriminate between two images was strongly predictive of the ability of humans to discriminate between them during visual search, accounting overall for 90% of the variance in human performance. A simple physical measure of global similarity – the degree of overlap between the coarse footprints of a pair of images – largely explains both the neuronal and the behavioral results. To explain the relation between population activity and search behavior, we propose a model in which the efficiency of global oddball search depends on contrast-enhancing lateral interactions in high-order visual cortex. PMID:20107054

  6. Trabecular Bone Strength Predictions of HR-pQCT and Individual Trabeculae Segmentation (ITS)-Based Plate and Rod Finite Element Model Discriminate Postmenopausal Vertebral Fractures

    PubMed Central

    Liu, X. Sherry; Wang, Ji; Zhou, Bin; Stein, Emily; Shi, Xiutao; Adams, Mark; Shane, Elizabeth; Guo, X. Edward

    2013-01-01

    While high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) has advanced clinical assessment of trabecular bone microstructure, nonlinear microstructural finite element (μFE) prediction of yield strength by HR-pQCT voxel model is impractical for clinical use due to its prohibitively high computational costs. The goal of this study was to develop an efficient HR-pQCT-based plate and rod (PR) modeling technique to fill the unmet clinical need for fast bone strength estimation. By using individual trabecula segmentation (ITS) technique to segment the trabecular structure into individual plates and rods, a patient-specific PR model was implemented by modeling each trabecular plate with multiple shell elements and each rod with a beam element. To validate this modeling technique, predictions by HR-pQCT PR model were compared with those of the registered high resolution μCT voxel model of 19 trabecular sub-volumes from human cadaveric tibiae samples. Both Young’s modulus and yield strength of HR-pQCT PR models strongly correlated with those of μCT voxel models (r2=0.91 and 0.86). Notably, the HR-pQCT PR models achieved major reductions in element number (>40-fold) and CPU time (>1,200-fold). Then, we applied PR model μFE analysis to HR-pQCT images of 60 postmenopausal women with (n=30) and without (n=30) a history of vertebral fracture. HR-pQCT PR model revealed significantly lower Young’s modulus and yield strength at the radius and tibia in fracture subjects compared to controls. Moreover, these mechanical measurements remained significantly lower in fracture subjects at both sites after adjustment for aBMD T-score at the ultradistal radius or total hip. In conclusion, we validated a novel HR-pQCT PR model of human trabecular bone against μCT voxel models and demonstrated its ability to discriminate vertebral fracture status in postmenopausal women. This accurate nonlinear μFE prediction of HR-pQCT PR model, which requires only seconds of

  7. Dorso-lateral prefrontal γ-amino butyric acid in men predicts individual differences in rash impulsivity

    PubMed Central

    Boy, Frederic; Evans, C. John; Edden, Richard A. E.; Lawrence, Andrew D.; Singh, Krish D.; Husain, Masud; Sumner, Petroc

    2011-01-01

    Background Impulsivity is a multifaceted personality construct associated with numerous psychiatric disorders. Recent research has characterized four facets of impulsivity: ‘urgency’ (the tendency to act rashly especially in the context of distress or cravings); ‘lack of premeditation’ (not envisaging the consequences of actions); ‘lack of perseverance’ (not staying focused on a task); ‘sensation seeking’ (engaging in exciting activities). Urgency is particularly associated with clinical populations and problematic disinhibited behaviour. Methods We used magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) to measure concentration of the inhibitory neurotransmitter γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) in the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) in two cohorts of 12 and 13 participants. Results We find that variation in trait urgency in healthy men correlates with GABA concentration in the dlPFC. The result was replicated in an independent cohort. More GABA predicted lower urgency scores, consistent with a role in self-control for GABA-mediated inhibitory mechanisms in dlPFC. Conclusions These findings help account for individual differences in self-control, and thus clarify the relationship between GABA and a wide range of psychiatric disorders associated with impaired self-control. PMID:21757187

  8. Inter-individual variation in fronto-temporal connectivity predicts the ability to learn different types of associations.

    PubMed

    Alm, Kylie H; Rolheiser, Tyler; Olson, Ingrid R

    2016-05-15

    The uncinate fasciculus connects portions of the anterior and medial temporal lobes to the lateral orbitofrontal cortex, so it has long been thought that this limbic fiber pathway plays an important role in episodic memory. Some types of episodic memory are impaired after damage to the uncinate, while others remain intact. Because of this, the specific role played by the uncinate fasciculus in episodic memory remains undetermined. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that the uncinate fasciculus is involved in episodic memory tasks that have high competition between representations at retrieval. To test this hypothesis, healthy young adults performed three tasks: Experiment 1 in which they learned to associate names with faces through feedback provided at the end of each trial; Experiment 2 in which they learned to associate fractals with cued locations through feedback provided at the end of each trial; and Experiment 3 in which unique faces were remembered in a paradigm with low retrieval competition. Diffusion tensor imaging and deterministic tractography methods were used to extract measures of uncinate fasciculus microstructure. Results revealed that microstructural properties of the uncinate, but not a control tract, the inferior longitudinal fasciculus, significantly predicted individual differences in performance on the face-name and fractal-location tasks. However, no relationship was observed for simple face memory (Experiment 3). These findings suggest that the uncinate fasciculus may be important for adjudicating between competing memory representations at the time of episodic retrieval. PMID:26908315

  9. Continuity of individual adaptation from infancy to kindergarten: a predictive study of ego-resiliency and curiosity in preschoolers.

    PubMed

    Arend, R; Gove, F L; Sroufe, L A

    1979-12-01

    In this longitudinal study, individual differences in security of attachment at 18 months and effective autonomous functioning at age 2 years were related to the dimensions of ego-control and ego-resiliency at age 4--5 years. The kindergarten or nursery school teachers of 26 children completed California Child Q-Sorts. The children were also given a short form of the Block's laboratory battery (Banta's curiosity box, level of aspiration, motor impulse control delay of gratification, the Shure and Spivack Preschool Interpersonal Problem-solving Test, and the Lowenfeld mosaics). Following the Blocks, composited ego-resiliency and ego-control scores were derived from each data set. Children earlier classified as securely attached were, as predicted, significantly higher on ego-resiliency on both laboratory and Q-sort composites. They were also higher than anxiously attached infants on 3 independent measures of curiosity. An independently composited index of competence from 2-year tool-using measures also correlated significantly with later resiliency, as did 2-year measures of mothers' support and quality of assistance. The data provide initial links between the infant's quality of attachment, the toddler's effectiveness in a problem-solving situation, and competence during the preschool years. PMID:535446

  10. Neural disruption to theory of mind predicts daily social functioning in individuals at familial high-risk for schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Dodell-Feder, David; DeLisi, Lynn E.

    2014-01-01

    Theory-of-mind (ToM) ability is foundational for successful social relationships, and dependent on a neurocognitive system, which includes temporoparietal junction and medial prefrontal cortex. Schizophrenia is associated with ToM impairments, and initial studies demonstrate similar, though more subtle deficits, in unaffected first-degree relatives, indicating that ToM deficits are a potential biomarker for the disorder. Importantly, the social consequences of ToM deficits could create an additional vulnerability factor for individuals at familial high risk (FHR). However, behavioral studies of ToM are inconsistent and virtually nothing is known about the neural basis of ToM in FHR or the relationship between ToM and social functioning. Here, FHR and non-FHR control participants underwent functional MRI scanning while reasoning about a story character’s thoughts, emotions or physical appearance. Afterwards, participants completed a 28-day online ‘daily-diary’ questionnaire in which they reported daily social interactions and degree of ToM reasoning. FHR participants demonstrated less neural activity in bilateral temporoparietal junction when reasoning about thoughts and emotions. Moreover, across all participants, the degree of neural activity during ToM reasoning predicted several aspects of daily social behavior. Results suggest that vulnerability for schizophrenia is associated with neurocognitive deficits in ToM and the degree of deficit is related to day-to-day social functioning. PMID:24396009

  11. A novel total flux normalized correlation equation for predicting single-collector efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sethi, R.; Messina, F.; Marchisio, D.

    2015-12-01

    In this study a novel total flux normalized correlation equation is proposed for predicting single-collector efficiency under a broad range of parameters. The correlation equation does not exploit the additivity approach introduced by Yao et al. (1971), but includes mixed terms that account for the mutual interaction of concomitant transport mechanisms (i.e., advection, gravity and Brownian motion) and of finite size of the particles (steric effect). The correlation equation is based on a combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian simulations performed, under Smoluchowski-Levich conditions, in a geometry which consists of a sphere enveloped by a cylindrical control volume. The normalization of the deposited flux is performed accounting for all of the particles entering into the control volume through all transport mechanisms (not just the upstream convective flux as conventionally done) to provide efficiency values lower than one over a wide range of parameters. In order to guarantee the independence of each term, the correlation equation is derived through a rigorous hierarchical parameter estimation process, accounting for single and mutual interacting transport mechanisms. The correlation equation, valid both for point and finite-size particles, is extended to include porosity dependency and it is compared with previous models. Reduced forms are proposed by elimination of the less relevant terms.References:F Messina, DL Marchisio, R Sethi . Journal of colloid and interface science 446, (2015) 185-193 T Tosco, DL Marchisio, F Lince, R Sethi, Transport in porous media 96 (1), (2013) 1-20 A Tiraferri, T Tosco, R Sethi Environmental Earth Sciences 63 (4), (2011) 847-859 K.E. Nelson, T.R. Ginn, T. Kemai, Environ Sci Technol 47 (2013) 8078. G. Boccardo, D.L. Marchisio, R. Sethi, J Colloid Interface Sci 417 (2014) 227. H. Ma, J. Pedel, P. Fife, W.P. Johnson, (2009). N. Tufenkji, M. Elimelech, Environ Sci Technol 38 (2004) 529.K.M. Yao, M.M. Habibian, C.R. O'Melia, Environ

  12. Individual motile CD4+ T cells can participate in efficient multi-killing through conjugation to multiple tumor cells

    PubMed Central

    Liadi, Ivan; Singh, Harjeet; Romain, Gabrielle; Rey-Villamizar, Nicolas; Merouane, Amine; Adolacion, Jay R T.; Kebriaei, Partow; Huls, Helen; Qiu, Peng; Roysam, Badrinath; Cooper, Laurence J.N.; Varadarajan, Navin

    2015-01-01

    T cells genetically modified to express a CD19-specific chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) for the investigational treatment of B-cell malignancies comprise a heterogeneous population, and their ability to persist and participate in serial killing of tumor cells is a predictor of therapeutic success. We implemented Timelapse Imaging Microscopy In Nanowell Grids (TIMING) to provide direct evidence that CD4+CAR+ T cells (CAR4 cells) can engage in multi-killing via simultaneous conjugation to multiple tumor cells. Comparisons of the CAR4 cells and CD8+CAR+ T cells (CAR8 cells) demonstrate that while CAR4 cells can participate in killing and multi-killing, they do so at slower rates, likely due to the lower Granzyme B content. Significantly, in both sets of T cells, a minor sub-population of individual T cells identified by their high motility, demonstrated efficient killing of single tumor cells. By comparing both the multi-killer and single killer CAR+ T cells it appears that the propensity and kinetics of T-cell apoptosis was modulated by the number of functional conjugations. T cells underwent rapid apoptosis, and at higher frequencies, when conjugated to single tumor cells in isolation and this effect was more pronounced on CAR8 cells. Our results suggest that the ability of CAR+ T cells to participate in multi-killing should be evaluated in the context of their ability to resist activation induced cell death (AICD). We anticipate that TIMING may be utilized to rapidly determine the potency of T-cell populations and may facilitate the design and manufacture of next-generation CAR+ T cells with improved efficacy. PMID:25711538

  13. Predicting Short Term Runoff Efficiency Using Antecedent Soil Moisture Estimates From Ground Penetrating Radar Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hermance, J. F.; Bohidar, R. N.

    2002-05-01

    Hydrologists universally recognize the importance of antecedent soil moisture conditions for predicting the response of catchments to storm events. We describe a pilot study involving a series of repeat geophysical measurements over a 5 month period to determine the water content of the subsurface immediately before a sequence of precipitation events. We correlate the resultant streamflow "response" of the local catchment to each event with the antecedent soil moisture at our reference site using a metric commonly employed by hydrologists: the ratio Qef/W, referred to here as the "short term runoff efficiency", which is simply the time-integrated volume of event flow (Qef) at the catchment's outflow point normalized by the volume of total precipitation (W) over its area. To determine the volumetric water content (Cw) of soils, past studies suggest the effectiveness of pulsed radio frequency methods, such as time domain reflectometry (TDR), or ground-penetrating radar (GPR). To first order, for typical field conditions and procedures, the velocity of a radio pulse in the subsurface is inversely proportional to the square root of the bulk dielectric constant, which in turn is proportional to the soil's water content. For this study, the advantage of GPR over conventional TDR measurements is that the GPR procedure determines average velocities from two-way traveltimes to an interface at depth, resulting in estimates of average physical properties over much larger volumes of the subsurface than would TDR. Our hydrologic data are USGS daily averaged discharges from the Ten Mile River (watershed area = 138 km2; 53.2 mi2) in southern New England. Daily values of precipitation were provided by personnel from the Seekonk Water District Office (MA) adjacent to the field site. Our hydrograph separation was facilitated by the observation that the event flow seems to be adequately represented by a simple composite cascaded linear reservoir model. The GPR data involved a series

  14. A method for predicting DCT-based denoising efficiency for grayscale images corrupted by AWGN and additive spatially correlated noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubel, Aleksey S.; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Egiazarian, Karen O.

    2015-03-01

    Results of denoising based on discrete cosine transform for a wide class of images corrupted by additive noise are obtained. Three types of noise are analyzed: additive white Gaussian noise and additive spatially correlated Gaussian noise with middle and high correlation levels. TID2013 image database and some additional images are taken as test images. Conventional DCT filter and BM3D are used as denoising techniques. Denoising efficiency is described by PSNR and PSNR-HVS-M metrics. Within hard-thresholding denoising mechanism, DCT-spectrum coefficient statistics are used to characterize images and, subsequently, denoising efficiency for them. Results of denoising efficiency are fitted for such statistics and efficient approximations are obtained. It is shown that the obtained approximations provide high accuracy of prediction of denoising efficiency.

  15. Acoustic Prediction Methodology and Test Validation for an Efficient Low-Noise Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawai, Ronald T. (Compiler)

    2011-01-01

    This investigation was conducted to: (1) Develop a hybrid wing body subsonic transport configuration with noise prediction methods to meet the circa 2007 NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) N+2 noise goal of -52 dB cum relative to FAR 36 Stage 3 (-42 dB cum re: Stage 4) while achieving a -25% fuel burned compared to current transports (re :B737/B767); (2) Develop improved noise prediction methods for ANOPP2 for use in predicting FAR 36 noise; (3) Design and fabricate a wind tunnel model for testing in the LaRC 14 x 22 ft low speed wind tunnel to validate noise predictions and determine low speed aero characteristics for an efficient low noise Hybrid Wing Body configuration. A medium wide body cargo freighter was selected to represent a logical need for an initial operational capability in the 2020 time frame. The Efficient Low Noise Hybrid Wing Body (ELNHWB) configuration N2A-EXTE was evolved meeting the circa 2007 NRA N+2 fuel burn and noise goals. The noise estimates were made using improvements in jet noise shielding and noise shielding prediction methods developed by UC Irvine and MIT. From this the Quiet Ultra Integrated Efficient Test Research Aircraft #1 (QUIET-R1) 5.8% wind tunnel model was designed and fabricated.

  16. Modelling impacts of performance on the probability of reproducing, and thereby on productive lifespan, allow prediction of lifetime efficiency in dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Phuong, H N; Blavy, P; Martin, O; Schmidely, P; Friggens, N C

    2016-01-01

    Reproductive success is a key component of lifetime efficiency - which is the ratio of energy in milk (MJ) to energy intake (MJ) over the lifespan, of cows. At the animal level, breeding and feeding management can substantially impact milk yield, body condition and energy balance of cows, which are known as major contributors to reproductive failure in dairy cattle. This study extended an existing lifetime performance model to incorporate the impacts that performance changes due to changing breeding and feeding strategies have on the probability of reproducing and thereby on the productive lifespan, and thus allow the prediction of a cow's lifetime efficiency. The model is dynamic and stochastic, with an individual cow being the unit modelled and one day being the unit of time. To evaluate the model, data from a French study including Holstein and Normande cows fed high-concentrate diets and data from a Scottish study including Holstein cows selected for high and average genetic merit for fat plus protein that were fed high- v. low-concentrate diets were used. Generally, the model consistently simulated productive and reproductive performance of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the French data, the model adequately simulated the reproductive performance of Holsteins but significantly under-predicted that of Normande cows. In the Scottish data, conception to first service was comparably simulated, whereas interval traits were slightly under-predicted. Selection for greater milk production impaired the reproductive performance and lifespan but not lifetime efficiency. The definition of lifetime efficiency used in this model did not include associated costs or herd-level effects. Further works should include such economic indicators to allow more accurate simulation of lifetime profitability in different production scenarios. PMID:26301951

  17. Prediction of inter-individual variability on the pharmacokinetics of CYP1A2 substrates in non-smoking healthy volunteers.

    PubMed

    Haraya, Kenta; Kato, Motohiro; Chiba, Koji; Sugiyama, Yuichi

    2016-08-01

    The activity of CYP1A2, a major drug-metabolizing enzyme, is known to be affected by various environmental factors. Our study aimed to predict inter-individual variability of AUC/Dose of CYP1A2 substrates in non-smoking healthy volunteers using the Monte Carlo simulation. Inter-individual variability in hepatic intrinsic clearance of CYP1A2 substrates (CLint,h,1A2) was estimated using dispersion model based on the inter-individual variability (N = 96) of the AUC of caffeine, a major CYP1A2 substrate. The estimated coefficient of variation (CV) of CLint,h,1A2 was 55%, similar to previously reported CLint,h,2D6 (60%) but larger than CLint,h,3A4 (33%). Then, this estimated CV was validated by predicting the CVs of AUC/Dose of tizanidine and phenacetin, which are mainly metabolized by CYP1A2 and have negligible renal clearance. As a result, reported CVs were successfully predicted within 2.5-97.5 percentile range of predicted values. Moreover, CVs for AUC/Dose of the CYP1A2 substrates theophylline and lidocaine, which are affected by other CYPs and renal clearance, were also successfully predicted. The inter-individual variability of AUC/Dose of CYP1A2 substrates was successfully predicted using 55% CV for CLint,h,1A2, and the results, along with those reported by our group for other CYPs, support the prediction of inter-individual variability of pharmacokinetics in the clinical setting. PMID:27318879

  18. Molecular value predictions: associations with beef quality, carcass, production, behavior, and efficiency phenotypes in Brahman cattle.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, P L; Cafe, L M; McIntyre, B L; Geesink, G H; Thompson, J M; Polkinghorne, R; Pethick, D W; Robinson, D L

    2013-12-01

    Data from 2 previously published experiments, New South Wales (NSW; n = 161) and Western Australia (WA; n = 135), were used to test molecular value predictions (MVP), generated from commercially available gene markers, on economically important traits of Bos indicus (Brahman) cattle. Favorable tenderness MVP scores were associated with reduced shear force values of strip loin (LM) steaks aged 7 d from Achilles-hung carcasses (P ≤ 0.06), as well as steaks aged 1 (P ≤ 0.08) or 7 d (P ≤ 0.07) from carcasses hung from the pelvis (tenderstretch). Favorable tenderness MVP scores were also associated with improved consumer tenderness ratings for strip loin steaks aged 7 d and either Achilles hung (P ≤ 0.006) or tenderstretched (P ≤ 0.07). Similar results were observed in NSW for rump (top butt; gluteus medius) steaks, with favorable tenderness MVP scores associated with more tender (P = 0.006) and acceptable (P = 0.008) beef. Favorable marbling MVP scores were associated with improved (P ≤ 0.021) marbling scores and intramuscular fat (IMF) content in the NSW experiment, despite low variation in marbling in the Brahman cattle. For the WA experiment, however, there were no (P ≥ 0.71) relationships between marbling MVP and marbling scores or IMF content. Although residual (net) feed intake (RFI) was not associated (P = 0.63) with the RFI (feed efficiency) MVP, the RFI MVP was adversely associated with LM tenderness and acceptability of 7-d-aged Achilles-hung carcasses in NSW (P ≤ 0.031) and WA (P ≤ 0.037). Some other relationships and trends were noted between the MVP and the other traits, but few reached statistical significance, and none were evident in both experiments. Results from this study provide evidence to support the use of the tenderness MVP. The value of the marbling MVP, which was associated with marbling in only 1 herd, warrants further evaluation; however, there appears to be no evidence to support use of the RFI MVP in Brahman cattle. PMID

  19. Analyzing the influence exerted by individual components of wetness losses on the efficiency of steam turbine stage and compartments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filippov, G. A.; Gribin, V. G.; Avetisyan, A. R.; Lisyanskii, A. S.

    2015-01-01

    The influence exerted by dispersed moisture on the economic efficiency of steam turbine stages and compartments operating in the wet steam region is analyzed. A procedure for generalizing experimental data is proposed that was used for analyzing the previously published results of experiments on determining the influence of different loss components on the efficiency of steam turbine stages and compartments. The influence of coarsely dispersed moisture on the turbine efficiency indicators is shown.

  20. Enhancement of accuracy and efficiency for RNA secondary structure prediction by sequence segmentation and MapReduce

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Ribonucleic acid (RNA) molecules play important roles in many biological processes including gene expression and regulation. Their secondary structures are crucial for the RNA functionality, and the prediction of the secondary structures is widely studied. Our previous research shows that cutting long sequences into shorter chunks, predicting secondary structures of the chunks independently using thermodynamic methods, and reconstructing the entire secondary structure from the predicted chunk structures can yield better accuracy than predicting the secondary structure using the RNA sequence as a whole. The chunking, prediction, and reconstruction processes can use different methods and parameters, some of which produce more accurate predictions than others. In this paper, we study the prediction accuracy and efficiency of three different chunking methods using seven popular secondary structure prediction programs that apply to two datasets of RNA with known secondary structures, which include both pseudoknotted and non-pseudoknotted sequences, as well as a family of viral genome RNAs whose structures have not been predicted before. Our modularized MapReduce framework based on Hadoop allows us to study the problem in a parallel and robust environment. Results On average, the maximum accuracy retention values are larger than one for our chunking methods and the seven prediction programs over 50 non-pseudoknotted sequences, meaning that the secondary structure predicted using chunking is more similar to the real structure than the secondary structure predicted by using the whole sequence. We observe similar results for the 23 pseudoknotted sequences, except for the NUPACK program using the centered chunking method. The performance analysis for 14 long RNA sequences from the Nodaviridae virus family outlines how the coarse-grained mapping of chunking and predictions in the MapReduce framework exhibits shorter turnaround times for short RNA sequences. However

  1. Individual Differences in False Belief Understanding Are Stable from 3 to 6 Years of Age and Predict Children's Mental State Talk with School Friends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, Claire; Ensor, Rosie; Marks, Alex

    2011-01-01

    Despite a wealth of studies in the field, longitudinal assessments of both the stability and predictive utility of individual differences in preschoolers' understanding of the mind remain scarce. To address these gaps, we applied latent variable analyses to (a) experimental data gathered from a socially diverse sample (N = 101, 60 boys and 41…

  2. Quantitative Analysis of Defects in Silicon. [to predict energy conversion efficiency of silicon samples for solar cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Natesh, R.; Smith, J. M.; Qidwai, H. A.; Bruce, T.

    1979-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of the conversion efficiency for a variety of silicon samples with differences in structural defects, such as grain boundaries, twin boundaries, precipitate particles, dislocations, etc. are discussed. Quantitative characterization of these structural defects, which were revealed by etching the surface of silicon samples, is performed by using an image analyzer. Due to different crystal growth and fabrication techniques the various types of silicon contain a variety of trace impurity elements and structural defects. The two most important criteria in evaluating the various silicon types for solar cell applications are cost and conversion efficiency.

  3. A method for predicting target drug efficiency in cancer based on the analysis of signaling pathway activation

    PubMed Central

    Artemov, Artem; Aliper, Alexander; Korzinkin, Michael; Lezhnina, Ksenia; Jellen, Leslie; Zhukov, Nikolay; Roumiantsev, Sergey; Gaifullin, Nurshat; Zhavoronkov, Alex; Borisov, Nicolas; Buzdin, Anton

    2015-01-01

    A new generation of anticancer therapeutics called target drugs has quickly developed in the 21st century. These drugs are tailored to inhibit cancer cell growth, proliferation, and viability by specific interactions with one or a few target proteins. However, despite formally known molecular targets for every “target” drug, patient response to treatment remains largely individual and unpredictable. Choosing the most effective personalized treatment remains a major challenge in oncology and is still largely trial and error. Here we present a novel approach for predicting target drug efficacy based on the gene expression signature of the individual tumor sample(s). The enclosed bioinformatic algorithm detects activation of intracellular regulatory pathways in the tumor in comparison to the corresponding normal tissues. According to the nature of the molecular targets of a drug, it predicts whether the drug can prevent cancer growth and survival in each individual case by blocking the abnormally activated tumor-promoting pathways or by reinforcing internal tumor suppressor cascades. To validate the method, we compared the distribution of predicted drug efficacy scores for five drugs (Sorafenib, Bevacizumab, Cetuximab, Sorafenib, Imatinib, Sunitinib) and seven cancer types (Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma, Colon cancer, Lung adenocarcinoma, non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, Thyroid cancer and Sarcoma) with the available clinical trials data for the respective cancer types and drugs. The percent of responders to a drug treatment correlated significantly (Pearson's correlation 0.77 p = 0.023) with the percent of tumors showing high drug scores calculated with the current algorithm. PMID:26320181

  4. More Gamma More Predictions: Gamma-Synchronization as a Key Mechanism for Efficient Integration of Classical Receptive Field Inputs with Surround Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Vinck, Martin; Bosman, Conrado A.

    2016-01-01

    During visual stimulation, neurons in visual cortex often exhibit rhythmic and synchronous firing in the gamma-frequency (30–90 Hz) band. Whether this phenomenon plays a functional role during visual processing is not fully clear and remains heavily debated. In this article, we explore the function of gamma-synchronization in the context of predictive and efficient coding theories. These theories hold that sensory neurons utilize the statistical regularities in the natural world in order to improve the efficiency of the neural code, and to optimize the inference of the stimulus causes of the sensory data. In visual cortex, this relies on the integration of classical receptive field (CRF) data with predictions from the surround. Here we outline two main hypotheses about gamma-synchronization in visual cortex. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization reflects the extent to which CRF data can be accurately predicted by the surround. Second, we hypothesize that different cortical columns synchronize to the extent that they accurately predict each other’s CRF visual input. We argue that these two hypotheses can account for a large number of empirical observations made on the stimulus dependencies of gamma-synchronization. Furthermore, we show that they are consistent with the known laminar dependencies of gamma-synchronization and the spatial profile of intercolumnar gamma-synchronization, as well as the dependence of gamma-synchronization on experience and development. Based on our two main hypotheses, we outline two additional hypotheses. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization shows, in general, a negative dependence on RF size. In support, we review evidence showing that gamma-synchronization decreases in strength along the visual hierarchy, and tends to be more prominent in species with small V1 RFs. Second, we hypothesize that gamma-synchronized network dynamics facilitate the emergence of spiking output that

  5. More Gamma More Predictions: Gamma-Synchronization as a Key Mechanism for Efficient Integration of Classical Receptive Field Inputs with Surround Predictions.

    PubMed

    Vinck, Martin; Bosman, Conrado A

    2016-01-01

    During visual stimulation, neurons in visual cortex often exhibit rhythmic and synchronous firing in the gamma-frequency (30-90 Hz) band. Whether this phenomenon plays a functional role during visual processing is not fully clear and remains heavily debated. In this article, we explore the function of gamma-synchronization in the context of predictive and efficient coding theories. These theories hold that sensory neurons utilize the statistical regularities in the natural world in order to improve the efficiency of the neural code, and to optimize the inference of the stimulus causes of the sensory data. In visual cortex, this relies on the integration of classical receptive field (CRF) data with predictions from the surround. Here we outline two main hypotheses about gamma-synchronization in visual cortex. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization reflects the extent to which CRF data can be accurately predicted by the surround. Second, we hypothesize that different cortical columns synchronize to the extent that they accurately predict each other's CRF visual input. We argue that these two hypotheses can account for a large number of empirical observations made on the stimulus dependencies of gamma-synchronization. Furthermore, we show that they are consistent with the known laminar dependencies of gamma-synchronization and the spatial profile of intercolumnar gamma-synchronization, as well as the dependence of gamma-synchronization on experience and development. Based on our two main hypotheses, we outline two additional hypotheses. First, we hypothesize that the precision of gamma-synchronization shows, in general, a negative dependence on RF size. In support, we review evidence showing that gamma-synchronization decreases in strength along the visual hierarchy, and tends to be more prominent in species with small V1 RFs. Second, we hypothesize that gamma-synchronized network dynamics facilitate the emergence of spiking output that is

  6. Building treatments for urban flood inundation models and implications for predictive skill and modeling efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, Jochen E.; Sanders, Brett F.

    2012-06-01

    Urban areas are vulnerable to major flood damages due to the density of economic and social assets, and there is increasing interest in localized flood intensity predictions to implement flood risk reduction measures. A number of models have been proposed for unsteady flood flows through urban landscapes, but the data needs and complexity are varied and it is not clear that the benefits of added complexity are justified by improved predictive skill. In this study we compare four methods to model unsteady, multi-dimensional flow through urban areas: building resistance (BR), building block (BB), building hole (BH) and building porosity (BP). Each method is applied to the Baldwin Hills, CA urban dam break scenario which offers excellent data for model parameterization, validation and overall performance assessment including observations of flood extent, stream flow, and scour path. Results show that all four methods are capable of high predictive skill for flood extent and stream flow using unique unstructured meshes tailored to exploit the strengths of each approach. However, localized velocities prove more difficult to predict and are sensitive to the building method even in the limit of a very fine grid (ca. 1.5 m resolution). In addition, only those methods that account for building geometries (BB, BH and BP) capture building-scale variability in the velocity field. Tradeoffs between predictive skill, execution time, and set-up time are identified suggesting that the best method for a particular application will depend on available data, computing resources, time constraints, and the specific modeling objectives.

  7. NACE: A web-based tool for prediction of intercompartmental efficiency of human molecular genetic networks.

    PubMed

    Popik, Olga V; Ivanisenko, Timofey V; Saik, Olga V; Petrovskiy, Evgeny D; Lavrik, Inna N; Ivanisenko, Vladimir A

    2016-06-15

    Molecular genetic processes generally involve proteins from distinct intracellular localisations. Reactions that follow the same process are distributed among various compartments within the cell. In this regard, the reaction rate and the efficiency of biological processes can depend on the subcellular localisation of proteins. Previously, the authors proposed a method of evaluating the efficiency of biological processes based on the analysis of the distribution of protein subcellular localisation (Popik et al., 2014). Here, NACE is presented, which is an open access web-oriented program that implements this method and allows the user to evaluate the intercompartmental efficiency of human molecular genetic networks. The method has been extended by a new feature that provides the evaluation of the tissue-specific efficiency of networks for more than 2800 anatomical structures. Such assessments are important in cases when molecular genetic pathways in different tissues proceed with the participation of various proteins with a number of intracellular localisations. For example, an analysis of KEGG pathways, conducted using the developed program, showed that the efficiencies of many KEGG pathways are tissue-specific. Analysis of efficiencies of regulatory pathways in the liver, linking proteins of the hepatitis C virus with human proteins involved in the KEGG apoptosis pathway, showed that intercompartmental efficiency might play an important role in host-pathogen interactions. Thus, the developed tool can be useful in the study of the effectiveness of functioning of various molecular genetic networks, including metabolic, regulatory, host-pathogen interactions and others taking into account tissue-specific gene expression. The tool is available via the following link: http://www-bionet.sscc.ru/nace/. PMID:27109913

  8. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  9. Central nervous system penetration-effectiveness rank does not reliably predict neurocognitive impairment in HIV-infected individuals

    PubMed Central

    Libertone, Raffaella; Lorenzini, Patrizia; Balestra, Pietro; Pinnetti, Carmela; Ricottini, Martina; Maddalena Plazzi, Maria; Menichetti, Samanta; Zaccarelli, Mauro; Nicastri, Emanuele; Bellagamba, Rita; Ammassari, Adriana; Antinori, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Central nervous system (CNS) penetration-effectiveness (CPE) rank was proposed in 2008 as an estimate of penetration of ARV regimen into the CNS, and validated as predictor of CSF HIV-1 replication. Results on predictive role of CPE on neurocognitive and clinical outcome were conflicting. Materials and Methods Retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of neurocognitive profile in HIV-infected cART-treated patients. All patients underwent neuropsychological (NP) assessment by standardized battery of 14 tests on 5 different domains. People were classified as having NCI if they scored >1 standard deviation (SD) below the normal mean in at least two tests, or >2 SD below in one test. Linear and logistic regression analyses were fitted using as outcome Npz8 and impaired/not impaired respectively. Results A total of 660 HIV-infected cART-treated individuals from 2009 to 2014, contributing a total of 1003 tests (mean age 49 (IQR 43–56), male 82%; median current CD4 586/mm3; 18% HCV infected; HIV-RNA <40 cp/mL in 84%). Current ARV regimen was 2NRTIs+1NNRTI 50.3%, 2NRTI+1PI/r in 32.6%, NRTI sparing in 11.1%. Mean CPE of current regimens was 6.6 (95% CI 6.5–6.7). As per test multivariable analysis, higher CPE values were associated to poor NP tasks (Beta=−0,09; 95% CI −0,14 −0,03; p=0.002 at multivariable linear regression). The association between higher CPE and increased NCI risk was confirmed at multivariable logistic regression, with a 1.24-fold risk of NCI occurrence for each point increase of CPE of current regimen at the time of NP testing (see Table 1). In a sensitivity analysis performed only on patients at the first NP test, the association between higher CPE and poor NP tasks and enhanced NCI risk was only marginally confirmed (Beta=−0,05; [−0,12–0,02]; p=0,19; OR 1,13 [0,95–1,34]; p=0.17). Older age, longer time from HIV diagnosis, current CD4 count <350 cell/mm3 and lower education level were all associated to an increased risk of

  10. Complex-to-Predict Generational Shift between Nested and Clustered Organization of Individual Prey Networks in Digger Wasps

    PubMed Central

    Ballesteros, Yolanda; Polidori, Carlo; Tormos, José; Baños-Picón, Laura; Asís, Josep Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Although diet has traditionally been considered to be a property of the species or populations as a whole, there is nowadays extensive knowledge that individual specialization is widespread among animal populations. Nevertheless, the factors determining the shape of interactions within food webs remain largely undiscovered, especially in predatory insects. We used an aggregation of the digger wasp Bembix merceti to 1) analyse patterns of individual prey use across three flying seasons in a network–based context; and 2) test the effect of four potential factors that might explain network topologies (wasp mass, nest spatial distribution, simultaneous nest-provisioning, prey availability). Inter-individual diet variation was found in all three years, under different predator-prey network topologies: Individuals arranged in dietary clusters and displayed a checkerboard pattern in 2009, but showed nestedness in 2008 and 2010. Network topologies were not fully explained by the tested factors. Larger females consumed a higher proportion of the total number of prey species captured by the population as a whole, in such a way that nested patterns may arise from mass-dependent prey spectrum width. Conversely, individuals with similar body mass didn’t form clusters. Nested patterns seemed to be associated with a greater availability of the main prey species (a proxy for reduced intra-specific competition). Thus, according with theory, clusters seemed to appear when competition increased. On the other hand, the nests of the individuals belonging to a given cluster were not more closely located, and neither did individuals within a cluster provision their nests simultaneously. Thus, a female-female copying behaviour during foraging was unlikely. In conclusion, wasp populations can maintain a considerable individual variation across years under different food web organizations. The tested factors only partially accounted for the shift in network properties, and new analyses

  11. Identification of potential serum biomarkers to predict feed efficiency in young pigs.

    PubMed

    Grubbs, J K; Dekkers, J C M; Huff-Lonergan, E; Tuggle, C K; Lonergan, S M

    2016-04-01

    Identification of biomarkers for feed efficiency in livestock will aid in the efficient production of high-quality protein to meet the demands of a growing population. The overall objective of this research was to identify biomarkers in serum for swine feed efficiency and to discover pathways affected by divergent selection for residual feed intake (RFI). Serum was collected from young pigs (between 35 and 42 d of age) from 2 lines of pigs that have been genetically selected to be either more efficient (low-RFI) or less efficient (high-RFI). After blood collection, during finishing, pigs from each line were placed on either a low-energy/high-fiber diet or a traditional high-energy/low-fiber diet to test for any diet effects on RFI. Subsets of 6 pigs per line within each diet were used in 3 independent experiments. Pigs with extreme RFI phenotypes from the low-energy/high-fiber diet were used to confirm the results from the first 2 comparisons. Two-dimensional difference in gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry were used to identify proteins with different abundances between RFI line or finishing diet. Three proteins had consistent and significant ( < 0.05) RFI line differences for both diets: gelsolin, vitronectin, and serine protease inhibitor A3 (serpinA3). Abundance of gelsolin, a protein with roles in actin filament assembly and immune response, was greater in the more efficient low-RFI pigs (9 to 39%). Vitronectin was also more abundant in the low-RFI pigs (39 to 56%) and has known roles in blood homeostasis and may regulate adiposity. SerpinA3 is a member of a very large family of proteins referred to as serine protease inhibitors. A total of 14 spots that were more abundant in the low-RFI line, some at least twice as abundant, were identified as serpinA3. Multiple isoforms of serpinA3 have been reported (serpinA3-1 to serpinA3-4 in pigs and serpinA3-1 to serpinA3-8 in cattle) with serpinA3 having many different functions dependent on isoform. Gelsolin

  12. Background matching and camouflage efficiency predict population density in four-eyed turtle (Sacalia quadriocellata).

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fanrong; Yang, Canchao; Shi, Haitao; Wang, Jichao; Sun, Liang; Lin, Liu

    2016-10-01

    Background matching is an important way to camouflage and is widespread among animals. In the field, however, few studies have addressed background matching, and there has been no reported camouflage efficiency in freshwater turtles. Background matching and camouflage efficiency of the four-eyed turtle, Sacalia quadriocellata, among three microhabitat sections of Hezonggou stream were investigated by measuring carapace components of CIE L*a*b* (International Commission on Illumination; lightness, red/green and yellow/blue) color space, and scoring camouflage efficiency through the use of humans as predators. The results showed that the color difference (ΔE), lightness difference (ΔL(*)), and chroma difference (Δa(*)b(*)) between carapace and the substrate background in midstream were significantly lower than that upstream and downstream, indicating that the four-eyed turtle carapace color most closely matched the substrate of midstream. In line with these findings, the camouflage efficiency was the best for the turtles that inhabit midstream. These results suggest that the four-eyed turtles may enhance camouflage efficiency by selecting microhabitat that best match their carapace color. This finding may explain the high population density of the four-eyed turtle in the midstream section of Hezonggou stream. To the best of our knowledge, this study is among the first to quantify camouflage of freshwater turtles in the wild, laying the groundwork to further study the function and mechanisms of turtle camouflage. PMID:27542920

  13. A cascaded QSAR model for efficient prediction of overall power conversion efficiency of all-organic dye-sensitized solar cells.

    PubMed

    Li, Hongzhi; Zhong, Ziyan; Li, Lin; Gao, Rui; Cui, Jingxia; Gao, Ting; Hu, Li Hong; Lu, Yinghua; Su, Zhong-Min; Li, Hui

    2015-05-30

    A cascaded model is proposed to establish the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) between the overall power conversion efficiency (PCE) and quantum chemical molecular descriptors of all-organic dye sensitizers. The cascaded model is a two-level network in which the outputs of the first level (JSC, VOC, and FF) are the inputs of the second level, and the ultimate end-point is the overall PCE of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). The model combines quantum chemical methods and machine learning methods, further including quantum chemical calculations, data division, feature selection, regression, and validation steps. To improve the efficiency of the model and reduce the redundancy and noise of the molecular descriptors, six feature selection methods (multiple linear regression, genetic algorithms, mean impact value, forward selection, backward elimination, and +n-m algorithm) are used with the support vector machine. The best established cascaded model predicts the PCE values of DSSCs with a MAE of 0.57 (%), which is about 10% of the mean value PCE (5.62%). The validation parameters according to the OECD principles are R(2) (0.75), Q(2) (0.77), and Qcv2 (0.76), which demonstrate the great goodness-of-fit, predictivity, and robustness of the model. Additionally, the applicability domain of the cascaded QSAR model is defined for further application. This study demonstrates that the established cascaded model is able to effectively predict the PCE for organic dye sensitizers with very low cost and relatively high accuracy, providing a useful tool for the design of dye sensitizers with high PCE. PMID:25773984

  14. Predicting HHFW Heating Efficiency on NSTX via Whole-Device Full-Wave Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Green, D. L.; Berry, L. A.; Ryan, P. M.; Jaeger, E. F.

    2011-12-23

    We present a qualitative comparison of NSTX HHFW heating efficiency observations with results from the AORSA whole-device, linear simulation. The simulation retains a realistic geometry and core plasma kinetic physics such that scrape-off plasma linear RF fields can be calculated. By examining L-mode and neutral beam heated H-mode scenarios we quantify the conditions that result in a fast-wave coaxial mode in the scrape-off plasma. These large amplitude coaxial modes are expected to damp on collisions or couple to non-linear damping mechanisms and be correlated to an observed drop in core heating efficiency.

  15. Efficient network disintegration under incomplete information: the comic effect of link prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Suo-Yi; Wu, Jun; Lü, Linyuan; Li, Meng-Jun; Lu, Xin

    2016-03-01

    The study of network disintegration has attracted much attention due to its wide applications, including suppressing the epidemic spreading, destabilizing terrorist network, preventing financial contagion, controlling the rumor diffusion and perturbing cancer networks. The crux of this matter is to find the critical nodes whose removal will lead to network collapse. This paper studies the disintegration of networks with incomplete link information. An effective method is proposed to find the critical nodes by the assistance of link prediction techniques. Extensive experiments in both synthetic and real networks suggest that, by using link prediction method to recover partial missing links in advance, the method can largely improve the network disintegration performance. Besides, to our surprise, we find that when the size of missing information is relatively small, our method even outperforms than the results based on complete information. We refer to this phenomenon as the “comic effect” of link prediction, which means that the network is reshaped through the addition of some links that identified by link prediction algorithms, and the reshaped network is like an exaggerated but characteristic comic of the original one, where the important parts are emphasized.

  16. Efficient network disintegration under incomplete information: the comic effect of link prediction

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Suo-Yi; Wu, Jun; Lü, Linyuan; Li, Meng-Jun; Lu, Xin

    2016-01-01

    The study of network disintegration has attracted much attention due to its wide applications, including suppressing the epidemic spreading, destabilizing terrorist network, preventing financial contagion, controlling the rumor diffusion and perturbing cancer networks. The crux of this matter is to find the critical nodes whose removal will lead to network collapse. This paper studies the disintegration of networks with incomplete link information. An effective method is proposed to find the critical nodes by the assistance of link prediction techniques. Extensive experiments in both synthetic and real networks suggest that, by using link prediction method to recover partial missing links in advance, the method can largely improve the network disintegration performance. Besides, to our surprise, we find that when the size of missing information is relatively small, our method even outperforms than the results based on complete information. We refer to this phenomenon as the “comic effect” of link prediction, which means that the network is reshaped through the addition of some links that identified by link prediction algorithms, and the reshaped network is like an exaggerated but characteristic comic of the original one, where the important parts are emphasized. PMID:26960247

  17. Efficient network disintegration under incomplete information: the comic effect of link prediction.

    PubMed

    Tan, Suo-Yi; Wu, Jun; Lü, Linyuan; Li, Meng-Jun; Lu, Xin

    2016-01-01

    The study of network disintegration has attracted much attention due to its wide applications, including suppressing the epidemic spreading, destabilizing terrorist network, preventing financial contagion, controlling the rumor diffusion and perturbing cancer networks. The crux of this matter is to find the critical nodes whose removal will lead to network collapse. This paper studies the disintegration of networks with incomplete link information. An effective method is proposed to find the critical nodes by the assistance of link prediction techniques. Extensive experiments in both synthetic and real networks suggest that, by using link prediction method to recover partial missing links in advance, the method can largely improve the network disintegration performance. Besides, to our surprise, we find that when the size of missing information is relatively small, our method even outperforms than the results based on complete information. We refer to this phenomenon as the "comic effect" of link prediction, which means that the network is reshaped through the addition of some links that identified by link prediction algorithms, and the reshaped network is like an exaggerated but characteristic comic of the original one, where the important parts are emphasized. PMID:26960247

  18. A "melanopic" spectral efficiency function predicts the sensitivity of melanopsin photoreceptors to polychromatic lights.

    PubMed

    Enezi, Jazi al; Revell, Victoria; Brown, Timothy; Wynne, Jonathan; Schlangen, Luc; Lucas, Robert

    2011-08-01

    Photoreception in the mammalian retina is not restricted to rods and cones but extends to a small number of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells expressing the photopigment melanopsin. These mRGCs are especially important contributors to circadian entrainment, the pupil light reflex, and other so-called nonimage-forming (NIF) responses. The spectral sensitivity of melanopsin phototransduction has been addressed in several species by comparing responses to a range of monochromatic stimuli. The resultant action spectra match the predicted profile of an opsin:vitamin A-based photopigment (nomogram) with a peak sensitivity (λ(max)) around 480 nm. It would be most useful to be able to use this spectral sensitivity function to predict melanopsin's sensitivity to broad-spectrum, including "white," lights. However, evidence that melanopsin is a bistable pigment with an intrinsic light-dependent bleach recovery mechanism raises the possibility of a more complex relationship between spectral quality and photoreceptor response. Here, we set out to empirically determine whether simply weighting optical power at each wavelength according to the 480-nm nomogram and integrating across the spectrum could predict melanopsin sensitivity to a variety of polychromatic stimuli. We show that pupillomotor and circadian responses of mice relying solely on melanopsin for their photosensitivity (rd/rd cl) can indeed be accurately predicted using this methodology. Our data therefore suggest that the 480-nm nomogram may be employed as the basis for a new photometric measure of light intensity (which we term "melanopic") relevant for melanopsin photoreception. They further show that measuring light in these terms predicts the melanopsin response to light of divergent spectral composition much more reliably than other methods for quantifying irradiance or illuminance currently in widespread use. PMID:21775290

  19. In the Eye of the Beholder: Individual Differences in Perceived Social Isolation Predict Regional Brain Activation to Social Stimuli

    PubMed Central

    Cacioppo, John T.; Norris, Catherine J.; Decety, Jean; Monteleone, George; Nusbaum, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Prior research has shown that perceived social isolation (loneliness) motivates people to attend to and connect with others but to do so in a self-protective and paradoxically self-defeating fashion. Although recent research has shed light on the neural correlates of social perception, cooperation, empathy, rejection and love, little is known about how individual differences in loneliness relate to neural responses to social and emotional stimuli. Using functional MRI we show that there are at least two neural mechanisms differentiating social perception in lonely and nonlonely young adults. For pleasant depictions, lonely individuals appear to be less rewarded by social stimuli, as evidenced by weaker activation of the ventral striatum to pictures of people than of objects, whereas nonlonely individuals showed stronger activation of the ventral striatum to pictures of people than of objects. For unpleasant depictions, lonely individuals were characterized by greater activation of the visual cortex to pictures of people than of objects, suggesting their attention is drawn more to the distress of others; whereas nonlonely individuals showed greater activation of the right and left temporoparietal junction to pictures of people than of objects, consistent with the notion that they are more likely to reflect spontaneously on the perspective of distressed others. PMID:18476760

  20. Predicted Efficiency of Spaced Plant Selection to Indirectly Improve Tall Fescue Sward Yield and Quality

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The validity of spaced plant evaluation to determine sward performance of forage grasses has oft been questioned. This experiment studied the efficiency of spaced plant evaluation to indirectly improve sward yield and nutritional quality in tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.). A tall fescue ...

  1. Assessing SNPs versus RAPDs for predicting heterogeneity and screening efficiency in wild potato (Solanum)species

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Knowing how genetic diversity is partitioned among and within wild potato species populations is important for efficient sampling for collection, preservation and evaluation. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of SNPs for assessing germplasm by using the exact set of four model species previous...

  2. Characteristics of concentration-inhibition curves of individual chemicals and applicability of the concentration addition model for mixture toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Wang, Na; Wang, Xiaochang C; Ma, Xiaoyan

    2015-03-01

    The concentration addition (CA) model has been widely applied to predict mixture toxicity. However, its applicability is difficult to evaluate due to the complexity of interactions among substances. Considering that the concentration-response curve (CRC) of each component of the mixture is closely related to the prediction of mixture toxicity, mathematical treatments were used to derive a characteristic index kECx (k was the slope of the tangent line of a CRC at concentration ECx). The implication is that the CA model would be applicable for predicting the mixture toxicity only when chemical components have similar kECx in the whole or part of the concentration range. For five selected chemicals whose toxicity was detected using luminescent bacteria, sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate (SDBS) showed much higher kECx values than the others and its existence in the binary mixtures brought about overestimation of the mixture toxicity with the CA model. The higher the mass ratio of SDBS in a multi-mixture was, the more the toxicity prediction deviated from measurements. By applying the method proposed in this study to analyze some published data, it is confirmed that some components having significantly different kECx values from the other components could explain the large deviation of the mixture toxicity predicted by the CA model. PMID:25499050

  3. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Hyun Jin; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Young Seok; Nam, Joo-Hyun; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Kim, Jin Hee; Cha, Soon Do; Kim, Juree; Lee, Ki-Heon; Yoon, Mee Sun; and others

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis.

  4. On the efficiency of image completion methods for intra prediction in video coding with large block structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doshkov, Dimitar; Jottrand, Oscar; Wiegand, Thomas; Ndjiki-Nya, Patrick

    2013-02-01

    Intra prediction is a fundamental tool in video coding with hybrid block-based architecture. Recent investigations have shown that one of the most beneficial elements for a higher compression performance in high-resolution videos is the incorporation of larger block structures. Thus in this work, we investigate the performance of novel intra prediction modes based on different image completion techniques in a new video coding scheme with large block structures. Image completion methods exploit the fact that high frequency image regions yield high coding costs when using classical H.264/AVC prediction modes. This problem is tackled by investigating the incorporation of several intra predictors using the concept of Laplace partial differential equation (PDE), Least Square (LS) based linear prediction and the Auto Regressive model. A major aspect of this article is the evaluation of the coding performance in a qualitative (i.e. coding efficiency) manner. Experimental results show significant improvements in compression (up to 7.41 %) by integrating the LS-based linear intra prediction.

  5. Predicting homophobic behavior among heterosexual youth: domain general and sexual orientation-specific factors at the individual and contextual level.

    PubMed

    Poteat, V Paul; DiGiovanni, Craig D; Scheer, Jillian R

    2013-03-01

    As a form of bias-based harassment, homophobic behavior remains prominent in schools. Yet, little attention has been given to factors that underlie it, aside from bullying and sexual prejudice. Thus, we examined multiple domain general (empathy, perspective-taking, classroom respect norms) and sexual orientation-specific factors (sexual orientation identity importance, number of sexual minority friends, parents' sexual minority attitudes, media messages). We documented support for a model in which these sets of factors converged to predict homophobic behavior, mediated through bullying and prejudice, among 581 students in grades 9-12 (55 % female). The structural equation model indicated that, with the exception of media messages, these additional factors predicted levels of prejudice and bullying, which in turn predicted the likelihood of students to engage in homophobic behavior. These findings highlight the importance of addressing multiple interrelated factors in efforts to reduce bullying, prejudice, and discrimination among youth. PMID:22956337

  6. Prediction of bulk tank somatic cell count violations based on monthly individual cow somatic cell count data.

    PubMed

    Fauteux, V; Bouchard, E; Haine, D; Scholl, D T; Roy, J P

    2015-04-01

    The regulatory limit in Canada for bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC) was recently lowered from 500,000 to 400,000 cells/mL. Herd indices based on changes in cow somatic cell count over 2 consecutive months (e.g., proportion of healthy or chronically infected cows, cows cured, and new intramammary infection rate) could be used as predictors for BTSCC violations. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for exceeding the limit of 400,000 cells/mL in the next month using these herd indices. Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) data were used from 924 dairy herds in Québec, Canada. Test-day BTSCC was estimated by dividing the sum of all cows' DHI test-day somatic cell count times DHI test-day milk production by the total volume of milk produced by the herd on that test-day. In total, 986 of 8,681 (11.4%) estimated BTSCC exceeded 400,000 cells/mL. The final predictive model included 6 variables: mean herd somatic cell score at the current test-month, proportion of cows >500,000 cells/mL at the current test-month, proportion of healthy cows during lactation at the current test-month, proportion of chronically infected cows at the current test-month, average days in milk at the current test-month, and annual mean daily milk production. The optimized sensitivity and specificity of the model were 76 and 74%, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 25 and 95%, respectively. This low positive predictive value and high negative predictive value demonstrated that the model was less accurate at predicting herds that would violate the estimated BTSCC threshold but very accurate at identifying herds that would not. In addition, the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82, suggesting that the model had excellent discrimination between test-months that did and did not exceed 400,000 cells/mL. An internal validation was completed using a bootstrapped resampling-based es