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Sample records for predicting field performance

  1. Thermal system field performance predictions from laboratory and field measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burks, Stephen D.; Haefner, David P.; Teaney, Brian P.; Doe, Joshua M.

    2016-05-01

    Laboratory measurements on thermal imaging systems are critical to understanding their performance in a field environment. However, it is rarely a straightforward process to directly inject thermal measurements into thermal performance modeling software to acquire meaningful results. Some of the sources of discrepancies between laboratory and field measurements are sensor gain and level, dynamic range, sensor display and display brightness, and the environment where the sensor is operating. If measurements for the aforementioned parameters could be performed, a more accurate description of sensor performance in a particular environment is possible. This research will also include the procedure for turning both laboratory and field measurements into a system model.

  2. PREDICTING FIELD PERFORMANCE OF HERBACEOUS SPECIES FOR PHYTOREMEDIATION OF PERCHLORATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Results of these short-term experiments coupled with ecological knowledge of the nine herbaceous plant species tested suggest that several species may by successful in on-site remediation of perchlorate. The two wetland species which appear to be most suitable for field experimen...

  3. A target detection model predicting field observer performance in maritime scenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culpepper, Joanne B.; Wheaton, Vivienne C.

    2014-10-01

    The U.S. Army's target acquisition models, the ACQUIRE and Target Task Performance (TTP) models, have been employed for many years to assess the performance of thermal infrared sensors. In recent years, ACQUIRE and the TTP models have been adapted to assess the performance of visible sensors. These adaptations have been primarily focused on the performance of an observer viewing a display device. This paper describes an implementation of the TTP model to predict field observer performance in maritime scenes. Predictions of the TTP model implementation were compared to observations of a small watercraft taken in a field trial. In this field trial 11 Australian Navy observers viewed a small watercraft in an open ocean scene. Comparisons of the observed probability of detection to predictions of the TTP model implementation showed the normalised RSS metric overestimated the probability of detection. The normalised Pixel Contrast using a literature value for V50 yielded a correlation of 0.58 between the predicted and observed probability of detection. With a measured value of N50 or V50 for the small watercraft used in this investigation, this implementation of the TTP model may yield stronger correlation with observed probability of detection.

  4. Accomplishments and Compromises in Prediction Research for World Records and Best Performances in Track and Field and Swimming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yuanlong; Paul, Stanley; Fu, Frank H.

    2012-01-01

    The conductors of this study reviewed prediction research and studied the accomplishments and compromises in predicting world records and best performances in track and field and swimming. The results of the study showed that prediction research only promises to describe the historical trends in track and field and swimming performances, to study…

  5. Predictions of long-term performance of granular iron permeable reactive barriers: field-scale evaluation.

    PubMed

    Jeen, Sung-Wook; Gillham, Robert W; Przepiora, Andrzej

    2011-04-01

    Long-term performance is a key consideration for the granular iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology because the economic benefit relies on sustainable operation for substantial periods of time. However, predictions on the long-term performance have been limited mainly because of the lack of reliable modeling tools. This study evaluated the predictive capability of a recently-developed reactive transport model at two field-scale PRBs, both having relatively high concentrations of dissolved carbonate in the native groundwater. The first site, with 8 years of available monitoring data, was a funnel-and-gate installation, with a low groundwater velocity through the gate (about 0.12 m d(-1)). The loss in iron reactivity caused by secondary mineral precipitation was small, maintaining relatively high removal rates for chlorinated organics. The simulated concentrations for most constituents in the groundwater were within the range of the monitoring data. The second site, with monitoring data available for 5 years, was a continuous wall PRB, designed for a groundwater velocity of 0.9 m d(-1). A comparison of measured and simulated aqueous concentrations suggested that the average groundwater velocity through the PRB could be lower than the design value by a factor of two or more. The distribution and amounts of carbonate minerals measured in core samples supported the decreased groundwater velocity used in the simulation. The generally good agreement between the simulated and measured aqueous and solid-phase data suggest that the model could be an effective tool for predicting long-term performance of granular iron PRBs, particularly in groundwater with high concentrations of carbonate. PMID:21237528

  6. The Ahuachapan geothermal field, El Salvador: Exploitation model, performance predictions, economic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ripperda, M.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Lippmann, M.J.; Witherspoon, P.A.; Goranson, C.

    1991-05-01

    The Earth Sciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is conducting a reservoir evaluation study of the Ahuachapan geothermal field in El Salvador. This work is being performed in cooperation with the Comision Ejecutiva Hidroelectrica del Rio Lempa (CEL) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) with funding from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). This report describes the work done during the second year of the study (FY89--90). The first year's report included (1) the development of geological and conceptual models of the field, (2) the evaluation of the reservoir's initial thermodynamic and chemical conditions and their changes during exploitation, (3) the evaluation of interference test data and the observed reservoir pressure decline and (4) the development of a natural state model for the field. In the present report the results of reservoir engineering studies to evaluate different production-injection scenarios for the Ahuachapan geothermal field are discussed. The purpose of the work was to evaluate possible reservoir management options to enhance as well as to maintain the productivity of the field during a 30-year period (1990--2020). The ultimate objective was to determine the feasibility of increasing the electrical power output at Ahuachapan from the current level of about 50 MW{sub e} to the total installed capacity of 95 MW{sub e}. 20 refs., 75 figs., 10 tabs.

  7. Testing the near field/far field model performance for prediction of particulate matter emissions in a paint factory.

    PubMed

    Koivisto, A J; Jensen, A C Ø; Levin, M; Kling, K I; Maso, M Dal; Nielsen, S H; Jensen, K A; Koponen, I K

    2015-01-01

    A Near Field/Far Field (NF/FF) model is a well-accepted tool for precautionary exposure assessment but its capability to estimate particulate matter (PM) concentrations is not well studied. The main concern is related to emission source characterization which is not as well defined for PM emitters compared to e.g. for solvents. One way to characterize PM emission source strength is by using the material dustiness index which is scaled to correspond to industrial use by using modifying factors, such as handling energy factors. In this study we investigate how well the NF/FF model predicts PM concentration levels in a paint factory. PM concentration levels were measured during big bag and small bag powder pouring. Rotating drum dustiness indices were determined for the specific powders used and applied in the NF/FF model to predict mass concentrations. Modeled process specific concentration levels were adjusted to be similar to the measured concentration levels by adjusting the handling energy factor. The handling energy factors were found to vary considerably depending on the material and process even-though they have the same values as modifying factors in the exposure models. This suggests that the PM source characteristics and process-specific handling energies should be studied in more detail to improve the model-based exposure assessment. PMID:25407261

  8. The productive performance prediction of some wells in Hachijojima hydrothermal field, Japan

    SciTech Connect

    Nobuhiro Demboya; Jun-ichi Ishikawa; Nobuyuki Iwai; Yoneko Tada

    1993-01-28

    New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) did "Geothermal Development Promotion Survey" in the Hachijojima Island which is a volcanic island with 70km² located in the Izu-Mariana Island Arc. In that national project, NEDO drilled 8 wells in the field and the maximum temperature of the field was 317°C at 1200m depth of a well. Of these survey NEDO confirmed the existence of geothermal reservoir, and using a well named HJ-5, NEDO did short time discharge test. The authors calculated borehole temperature and pressure under production the of the well in comparison with the measured data. The authors also calculated productive performance of another well named HJ-8.

  9. Can laboratory-based tennis profiles predict field tests of tennis performance?

    PubMed

    Perry, Arlette C; Wang, Xuewen; Feldman, Brandon B; Ruth, Tiffany; Signorile, Joseph

    2004-02-01

    The present study examined the impact of physical characteristics of adolescent competitive tennis players (13-18 years) on field tests of tennis performance. Results (n = 33) showed that boys were taller (p = 0.001), possessed greater wingspan (p = 0.030), had greater maximum oxygen consumption (p = 0.001), and performed better on isokinetic strength measurements. Multiple regression analyses controlling for age and sex showed that height (p = 0.025), maximum minute ventilation (p = 0.005), and isokinetic strength measurements significantly and positively affected ball velocity. Knee extension average power was the only variable to positively and significantly affect ball placement (p = 0.040); however, several isokinetic strength measurements negatively affected ball placement. For the nondominant side, down-the-line strokes showed reduced accuracy (p = 0.001) and ball velocity (p = 0.001) compared with cross-court strokes. Given our results, resistance training may be beneficial for the performance of on-court tennis play. PMID:14971970

  10. Macropore flow at the field scale: predictive performance of empirical models and X-ray CT analyzed macropore characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naveed, M.; Moldrup, P.; Schaap, M.; Tuller, M.; Kulkarni, R.; Vögel, H.-J.; Wollesen de Jonge, L.

    2015-11-01

    Predictions of macropore flow is important for maintaining both soil and water quality as it governs key related soil processes e.g. soil erosion and subsurface transport of pollutants. However, macropore flow currently cannot be reliably predicted at the field scale because of inherently large spatial variability. The aim of this study was to perform field scale characterization of macropore flow and investigate the predictive performance of (1) current empirical models for both water and air flow, and (2) X-ray CT derived macropore network characteristics. For this purpose, 65 cylindrical soil columns (6 cm diameter and 3.5 cm height) were extracted from the topsoil (5 to 8.5 cm depth) in a 15 m × 15 m grid from an agricultural loamy field located in Silstrup, Denmark. All soil columns were scanned with an industrial CT scanner (129 μm resolution) and later used for measurements of saturated water permeability, air permeability and gas diffusivity at -30 and -100 cm matric potentials. Distribution maps for both water and air permeabilities and gas diffusivity reflected no spatial correlation irrespective of the soil texture and organic matter maps. Empirical predictive models for both water and air permeabilities showed poor performance as they were not able to realistically capture macropore flow because of poor correlations with soil texture and bulk density. The tested empirical model predicted well gas diffusivity at -100 cm matric potential, but relatively failed at -30 cm matric potential particularly for samples with biopore flow. Image segmentation output of the four employed methods was nearly the same, and matched well with measured air-filled porosity at -30 cm matric potential. Many of the CT derived macropore network characteristics were strongly interrelated. Most of the macropore network characteristics were also strongly correlated with saturated water permeability, air permeability, and gas diffusivity. The correlations between macropore

  11. PREVAPORATION PERFORMANCE PREDICTION SOFTWARE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pervaporation, Performance, Prediction Software and Database (PPPS&D) computer software program is currently being developed within the USEPA, NRMRL. The purpose of the PPPS&D program is to educate and assist potential users in identifying opportunities for using pervaporati...

  12. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  13. EVA Performance Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peacock, Brian; Maida, James; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2004-01-01

    out for EVA activities are based more on extensive domain experience than any formal analytic structure. Conversely, physical task analysis for industrial and structured evidence from training and EV A contexts. Again on earth there is considerable evidence of human performance degradation due to encumbrance and fatigue. These industrial models generally take the form of a discounting equation. The development of performance estimates for space operations, such as timeline predictions for EVA is generally based on specific input from training activity, for example in the NBL or KC135. uniformed services tasks on earth are much more formalized. Human performance data in the space context has two sources: first there is the micro analysis of performance in structured tasks by the space physiology community and second there is the less structured evidence from training and EV A contexts.

  14. Validation of a simple model to predict the performance of methane oxidation systems, using field data from a large scale biocover test field.

    PubMed

    Geck, Christoph; Scharff, Heijo; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria; Gebert, Julia

    2016-10-01

    On a large scale test field (1060m(2)) methane emissions were monitored over a period of 30months. During this period, the test field was loaded at rates between 14 and 46gCH4m(-2)d(-1). The total area was subdivided into 60 monitoring grid fields at 17.7m(2) each, which were individually surveyed for methane emissions and methane oxidation efficiency. The latter was calculated both from the direct methane mass balance and from the shift of the carbon dioxide - methane ratio between the base of the methane oxidation layer and the emitted gas. The base flux to each grid field was back-calculated from the data on methane oxidation efficiency and emission. Resolution to grid field scale allowed the analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of all considered fluxes. Higher emissions were measured in the upslope area of the test field. This was attributed to the capillary barrier integrated into the test field resulting in a higher diffusivity and gas permeability in the upslope area. Predictions of the methane oxidation potential were estimated with the simple model Methane Oxidation Tool (MOT) using soil temperature, air filled porosity and water tension as input parameters. It was found that the test field could oxidize 84% of the injected methane. The MOT predictions seemed to be realistic albeit the higher range of the predicted oxidations potentials could not be challenged because the load to the field was too low. Spatial and temporal emission patterns were found indicating heterogeneity of fluxes and efficiencies in the test field. No constant share of direct emissions was found as proposed by the MOT albeit the mean share of emissions throughout the monitoring period was in the range of the expected emissions. PMID:27426022

  15. Laboratory Performance Predicts the Success of Field Releases in Inbred Lines of the Egg Parasitoid Trichogramma pretiosum (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae)

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Aloisio; Rugman-Jones, Paul F.; Reigada, Carolina; Stouthamer, Richard; Parra, José R. P.

    2016-01-01

    In this study we assessed the relationship between the laboratory and field performance of different isofemale lines of Trichogramma pretiosum Riley. In comparative assays, we used three rare mitochondrial haplotypes as genetic markers of the isofemale lines, and by introgressing these mitochondrial haplotypes into each of 15 genetically different nuclear lines, also tested the assumption that mitochondria are neutral markers. In a laboratory trial, 45 isofemale lines (15 nuclear genotypes x three mitochondrial haplotypes) were ranked in three categories (best, intermediate and worst) according to the mean offspring production and the proportion of female offspring. Subsequently, lines from each of the three categories were selected for field releases to quantify field parasitism on Ephestia kuehniella. Temporally separate releases were done in a transgenic Bt cornfield, with four plots, each with 50 points of recapture. The points of recapture consisted of trap cards with eggs of E. kuehniella collected daily. The trap cards were maintained in the laboratory at 25°C until the adult wasps emerged, and the maternal identity of the wasps was determined using qPCR and high-resolution melt curve analysis to determine the mitochondrial haplotype. The results showed that these measures of laboratory performance (fecundity and offspring sex ratio) were good predictors of field success in T. pretiosum. We also report strong evidence discrediting the assumption that mitochondria are neutral, in view of the correlation between performance and mitochondrial haplotype. PMID:26730735

  16. PREDICTING TURBINE STAGE PERFORMANCE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.

    1994-01-01

    This program was developed to predict turbine stage performance taking into account the effects of complex passage geometries. The method uses a quasi-3D inviscid-flow analysis iteratively coupled to calculated losses so that changes in losses result in changes in the flow distribution. In this manner the effects of both the geometry on the flow distribution and the flow distribution on losses are accounted for. The flow may be subsonic or shock-free transonic. The blade row may be fixed or rotating, and the blades may be twisted and leaned. This program has been applied to axial and radial turbines, and is helpful in the analysis of mixed flow machines. This program is a combination of the flow analysis programs MERIDL and TSONIC coupled to the boundary layer program BLAYER. The subsonic flow solution is obtained by a finite difference, stream function analysis. Transonic blade-to-blade solutions are obtained using information from the finite difference, stream function solution with a reduced flow factor. Upstream and downstream flow variables may vary from hub to shroud and provision is made to correct for loss of stagnation pressure. Boundary layer analyses are made to determine profile and end-wall friction losses. Empirical loss models are used to account for incidence, secondary flow, disc windage, and clearance losses. The total losses are then used to calculate stator, rotor, and stage efficiency. This program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on an IBM 370/3033 under TSS with a central memory requirement of approximately 4.5 Megs of 8 bit bytes. This program was developed in 1985.

  17. Comparing performances of logistic regression and neural networks for predicting melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to ELF magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Jahandideh, Samad; Abdolmaleki, Parviz; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi

    2010-02-01

    Various studies have been reported on the bioeffects of magnetic field exposure; however, no consensus or guideline is available for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions as yet. In this study, logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in order to analyze and predict the melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF). Subsequently, on a database containing 33 experiments, performances of LR and ANNs were compared through resubstitution and jackknife tests. Predictor variables were more effective parameters and included frequency, polarization, exposure duration, and strength of magnetic fields. Also, five performance measures including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and normalized percentage, better than random (S) were used to evaluate the performance of models. The LR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance. Nonetheless, LR distinguished the duration of magnetic fields as a statistically significant parameter. Also, horizontal polarization of magnetic fields with the highest logit coefficient (or parameter estimate) with negative sign was found to be the strongest indicator for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions. This means that each experiment with horizontal polarization of magnetic fields has a higher probability to result in "not changed melatonin level" pattern. On the other hand, ANNs, a more powerful model which has not been introduced in predicting melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to ELF-MF, showed high performance measure values and higher reliability, especially obtaining 0.55 value of MCC through jackknife tests. Obtained results showed that such predictor models are promising and may play a useful role in defining guidelines for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions. In conclusion, analysis of the bioelectromagnetic data could result in

  18. Scaling maximal oxygen uptake to predict cycling time-trial performance in the field: a non-linear approach.

    PubMed

    Nevill, A M; Jobson, S A; Palmer, G S; Olds, T S

    2005-08-01

    The purpose of the present article is to identify the most appropriate method of scaling VO2max for differences in body mass when assessing the energy cost of time-trial cycling. The data from three time-trial cycling studies were analysed (N = 79) using a proportional power-function ANCOVA model. The maximum oxygen uptake-to-mass ratio found to predict cycling speed was VO2max(m)(-0.32) precisely the same as that derived by Swain for sub-maximal cycling speeds (10, 15 and 20 mph). The analysis was also able to confirm a proportional curvilinear association between cycling speed and energy cost, given by (VO2max(m)(-0.32))0.41. The model predicts, for example, that for a male cyclist (72 kg) to increase his average speed from 30 km h(-1) to 35 km h(-1), he would require an increase in VO2max from 2.36 l min(-1) to 3.44 l min(-1), an increase of 1.08 l min(-1). In contrast, for the cyclist to increase his mean speed from 40 km h(-1) to 45 km h(-1), he would require a greater increase in VO2max from 4.77 l min(-1) to 6.36 l min(-1), i.e. an increase of 1.59 l min(-1). The model is also able to accommodate other determinants of time-trial cycling, e.g. the benefit of cycling with a side wind (5% faster) compared with facing a predominately head/tail wind (P<0.05). Future research could explore whether the same scaling approach could be applied to, for example, alternative measures of recording power output to improve the prediction of time-trial cycling performance. PMID:15906080

  19. A predictive analytic model for high-performance tunneling field-effect transistors approaching non-equilibrium Green's function simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Salazar, Ramon B. E-mail: hilatikh@purdue.edu; Appenzeller, Joerg; Ilatikhameneh, Hesameddin E-mail: hilatikh@purdue.edu; Rahman, Rajib; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2015-10-28

    A new compact modeling approach is presented which describes the full current-voltage (I-V) characteristic of high-performance (aggressively scaled-down) tunneling field-effect-transistors (TFETs) based on homojunction direct-bandgap semiconductors. The model is based on an analytic description of two key features, which capture the main physical phenomena related to TFETs: (1) the potential profile from source to channel and (2) the elliptic curvature of the complex bands in the bandgap region. It is proposed to use 1D Poisson's equations in the source and the channel to describe the potential profile in homojunction TFETs. This allows to quantify the impact of source/drain doping on device performance, an aspect usually ignored in TFET modeling but highly relevant in ultra-scaled devices. The compact model is validated by comparison with state-of-the-art quantum transport simulations using a 3D full band atomistic approach based on non-equilibrium Green's functions. It is shown that the model reproduces with good accuracy the data obtained from the simulations in all regions of operation: the on/off states and the n/p branches of conduction. This approach allows calculation of energy-dependent band-to-band tunneling currents in TFETs, a feature that allows gaining deep insights into the underlying device physics. The simplicity and accuracy of the approach provide a powerful tool to explore in a quantitatively manner how a wide variety of parameters (material-, size-, and/or geometry-dependent) impact the TFET performance under any bias conditions. The proposed model presents thus a practical complement to computationally expensive simulations such as the 3D NEGF approach.

  20. A predictive analytic model for high-performance tunneling field-effect transistors approaching non-equilibrium Green's function simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, Ramon B.; Ilatikhameneh, Hesameddin; Rahman, Rajib; Klimeck, Gerhard; Appenzeller, Joerg

    2015-10-01

    A new compact modeling approach is presented which describes the full current-voltage (I-V) characteristic of high-performance (aggressively scaled-down) tunneling field-effect-transistors (TFETs) based on homojunction direct-bandgap semiconductors. The model is based on an analytic description of two key features, which capture the main physical phenomena related to TFETs: (1) the potential profile from source to channel and (2) the elliptic curvature of the complex bands in the bandgap region. It is proposed to use 1D Poisson's equations in the source and the channel to describe the potential profile in homojunction TFETs. This allows to quantify the impact of source/drain doping on device performance, an aspect usually ignored in TFET modeling but highly relevant in ultra-scaled devices. The compact model is validated by comparison with state-of-the-art quantum transport simulations using a 3D full band atomistic approach based on non-equilibrium Green's functions. It is shown that the model reproduces with good accuracy the data obtained from the simulations in all regions of operation: the on/off states and the n/p branches of conduction. This approach allows calculation of energy-dependent band-to-band tunneling currents in TFETs, a feature that allows gaining deep insights into the underlying device physics. The simplicity and accuracy of the approach provide a powerful tool to explore in a quantitatively manner how a wide variety of parameters (material-, size-, and/or geometry-dependent) impact the TFET performance under any bias conditions. The proposed model presents thus a practical complement to computationally expensive simulations such as the 3D NEGF approach.

  1. Experimental prediction of performance by superconducting cables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brooks, J. M.; Purcell, J. R.

    1969-01-01

    Broken superconductor method of short sample testing makes possible the prediction of the performance of well cooled, stabilized, superconducting cable coils. It yields a field-versus-current curve for a short sample of cable. Plots are given for the superconductor and copper currents at various magnetic field strengths.

  2. Program Predicts Nonlinear Inverter Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Ayoubi, R. R.; Oepomo, T. S.

    1985-01-01

    Program developed for ac power distribution system on Shuttle orbiter predicts total load on inverters and node voltages at each of line replaceable units (LRU's). Mathematical model simulates inverter performance at each change of state in power distribution system.

  3. Initial Cognitive Performance Predicts Longitudinal Aviator Performance

    PubMed Central

    Jo, Booil; Adamson, Maheen M.; Kennedy, Quinn; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Zeitzer, Jamie M.; Friedman, Leah F.; Fairchild, Kaci; Scanlon, Blake K.; Murphy, Greer M.; Taylor, Joy L.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. The goal of the study was to improve prediction of longitudinal flight simulator performance by studying cognitive factors that may moderate the influence of chronological age. Method. We examined age-related change in aviation performance in aircraft pilots in relation to baseline cognitive ability measures and aviation expertise. Participants were aircraft pilots (N = 276) aged 40–77.9. Flight simulator performance and cognition were tested yearly; there were an average of 4.3 (± 2.7; range 1–13) data points per participant. Each participant was classified into one of the three levels of aviation expertise based on Federal Aviation Administration pilot proficiency ratings: least, moderate, or high expertise. Results. Addition of measures of cognitive processing speed and executive function to a model of age-related change in aviation performance significantly improved the model. Processing speed and executive function performance interacted such that the slowest rate of decline in flight simulator performance was found in aviators with the highest scores on tests of these abilities. Expertise was beneficial to pilots across the age range studied; however, expertise did not show evidence of reducing the effect of age. Discussion. These data suggest that longitudinal performance on an important real-world activity can be predicted by initial assessment of relevant cognitive abilities. PMID:21586627

  4. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  5. Action perception predicts action performance

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Heather R.; Kurby, Christopher A.; Giovannetti, Tania; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

    2013-01-01

    Everyday action impairments often are observed in demented older adults, and they are common potential barriers to functional independence. We evaluated whether the ability to segment and efficiently encode activities is related to the ability to execute activities. Further, we evaluated whether brain regions important for segmentation also were important for action performance. Cognitively healthy older adults and those with very mild or mild dementia of the Alzheimer's type watched and segmented movies of everyday activities and then completed the Naturalistic Action Test. Structural MRI was used to measure volume in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), medial temporal lobes (MTL), posterior cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Dementia status and the ability to segment everyday activities strongly predicted naturalistic action performance, and MTL volume largely accounted for this relationship. In addition, the current results supported the Omission-Commission Model: Different cognitive and neurological mechanisms predicted different types of action error. Segmentation, dementia severity, and MTL volume predicted everyday omission errors, DLPFC volume predicted commission errors, and ACC volume predicted action additions. These findings suggest that event segmentation may be critical for effective action production, and that the segmentation and production of activities may recruit the same event representation system. PMID:23851113

  6. Synoptic Solar Magnetic Fields: Explored and Predicted

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.; Wik, M.; Wintoft, P.

    2006-12-01

    Solar synoptic maps provide an important visualization of global patterns. Maps are available of sub-surface flows, photospheric and coronal magnetic fields. We have carried out a multiresolution analysis (MRA) of longitudinally averaged synoptic magnetograms. The magnetograms were observed at Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Stanford and with Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard SOHO of ESA/NASA. We performed a multilevel wavelet decomposition of the solar magnetic field signal for each latitude. Trends and periods in the decomposed signal are shown. Solar cycle 24 is discussed. Predictions of the synoptic magnetic fields, using neural networks, have been developed. With the launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), real-time synoptic maps will be available. That would be of great importance for real-time predictions of space weather effects.

  7. TRITIUM RESERVOIR STRUCTURAL PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

    SciTech Connect

    Lam, P.S.; Morgan, M.J

    2005-11-10

    The burst test is used to assess the material performance of tritium reservoirs in the surveillance program in which reservoirs have been in service for extended periods of time. A materials system model and finite element procedure were developed under a Savannah River Site Plant-Directed Research and Development (PDRD) program to predict the structural response under a full range of loading and aged material conditions of the reservoir. The results show that the predicted burst pressure and volume ductility are in good agreement with the actual burst test results for the unexposed units. The material tensile properties used in the calculations were obtained from a curved tensile specimen harvested from a companion reservoir by Electric Discharge Machining (EDM). In the absence of exposed and aged material tensile data, literature data were used for demonstrating the methodology in terms of the helium-3 concentration in the metal and the depth of penetration in the reservoir sidewall. It can be shown that the volume ductility decreases significantly with the presence of tritium and its decay product, helium-3, in the metal, as was observed in the laboratory-controlled burst tests. The model and analytical procedure provides a predictive tool for reservoir structural integrity under aging conditions. It is recommended that benchmark tests and analysis for aged materials be performed. The methodology can be augmented to predict performance for reservoir with flaws.

  8. Predicting performance of parallel computations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mak, Victor W.; Lundstrom, Stephen F.

    1990-01-01

    An accurate and computationally efficient method for predicting the performance of a class of parallel computations running on concurrent systems is described. A parallel computation is modeled as a task system with precedence relationships expressed as a series-parallel directed acyclic graph. Resources in a concurrent system are modeled as service centers in a queuing network model. Using these two models as inputs, the method outputs predictions of expected execution time of the parallel computation and the concurrent system utilization. The method is validated against both detailed simulation and actual execution on a commercial multiprocessor. Using 100 test cases, the average error of the prediction when compared to simulation statistics is 1.7 percent, with a standard deviation of 1.5 percent; the maximum error is about 10 percent.

  9. Conrad: gene prediction using conditional random fields.

    PubMed

    DeCaprio, David; Vinson, Jade P; Pearson, Matthew D; Montgomery, Philip; Doherty, Matthew; Galagan, James E

    2007-09-01

    We present Conrad, the first comparative gene predictor based on semi-Markov conditional random fields (SMCRFs). Unlike the best standalone gene predictors, which are based on generalized hidden Markov models (GHMMs) and trained by maximum likelihood, Conrad is discriminatively trained to maximize annotation accuracy. In addition, unlike the best annotation pipelines, which rely on heuristic and ad hoc decision rules to combine standalone gene predictors with additional information such as ESTs and protein homology, Conrad encodes all sources of information as features and treats all features equally in the training and inference algorithms. Conrad outperforms the best standalone gene predictors in cross-validation and whole chromosome testing on two fungi with vastly different gene structures. The performance improvement arises from the SMCRF's discriminative training methods and their ability to easily incorporate diverse types of information by encoding them as feature functions. On Cryptococcus neoformans, configuring Conrad to reproduce the predictions of a two-species phylo-GHMM closely matches the performance of Twinscan. Enabling discriminative training increases performance, and adding new feature functions further increases performance, achieving a level of accuracy that is unprecedented for this organism. Similar results are obtained on Aspergillus nidulans comparing Conrad versus Fgenesh. SMCRFs are a promising framework for gene prediction because of their highly modular nature, simplifying the process of designing and testing potential indicators of gene structure. Conrad's implementation of SMCRFs advances the state of the art in gene prediction in fungi and provides a robust platform for both current application and future research. PMID:17690204

  10. Predicting edge seal performance from accelerated testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardikar, Kedar; Vitkavage, Dan; Saproo, Ajay; Krajewski, Todd

    2014-10-01

    Degradation in performance of a PV module attributable to moisture ingress has received significant attention in PV reliability research. Assessment of field performance of PV modules against moisture ingress through product-level testing in temperature-humidity control chambers poses challenges. Development of a meaningful acceleration factor model is challenging due to different rates of degradation of components embedded in a PV module, when exposed to moisture. Test results are typically a convolution of moisture barrier performance of the edge seal and degradation of laminated components when exposed to moisture. It is desirable to have an alternate method by which moisture barrier performance of the edge seal in its end product form can be assessed in any given field conditions, independent of particular cell design. In this work, a relatively inexpensive test technique was developed to test the edge seal in its end product form in a manner that is decoupled from other components of the PV module. A theoretical framework was developed to assess moisture barrier performance of edge seal with desiccants subjected to different conditions. This framework enables the analysis of test results from accelerated tests and prediction of the field performance of the edge seal. Results from this study lead to the conclusion that the edge seal on certain Miasole glass-glass modules studied is effective for the most aggressive weather conditions examined, beyond the intended service.

  11. Predicting Older Driver On-Road Performance by Means of the Useful Field of View and Trail Making Test Part B

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yanning; Crizzle, Alexander M.; Winter, Sandra M.; Lanford, Desiree N.

    2013-01-01

    The Useful Field of View® (UFOV) and Trail Making Test Part B (Trails B) are measures of divided attention. We determined which measure was more accurate in predicting on-road outcomes among drivers (N = 198, mean age = 73.86, standard deviation = 6.05). Receiver operating characteristic curves for the UFOV (Risk Index [RI] and Subtests 1–3) and Trails B significantly predicted on-road outcomes. Contrasting Trails B with the UFOV RI and subtests, the only difference was found between the UFOV RI and Trails B, indicating the UFOV RI was the best predictor of on-road outcomes. Misclassifications of drivers totaled 28 for the UFOV RI, 62 for Trails B, and 58 for UFOV Subtest 2. The UFOV RI is a superior test in predicting on-road outcomes, but the Trails B has acceptable accuracy and is comparable to the other UFOV subtests. PMID:23968796

  12. DKIST Polarization Modeling and Performance Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, David

    2016-05-01

    Calibrating the Mueller matrices of large aperture telescopes and associated coude instrumentation requires astronomical sources and several modeling assumptions to predict the behavior of the system polarization with field of view, altitude, azimuth and wavelength. The Daniel K Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) polarimetric instrumentation requires very high accuracy calibration of a complex coude path with an off-axis f/2 primary mirror, time dependent optical configurations and substantial field of view. Polarization predictions across a diversity of optical configurations, tracking scenarios, slit geometries and vendor coating formulations are critical to both construction and contined operations efforts. Recent daytime sky based polarization calibrations of the 4m AEOS telescope and HiVIS spectropolarimeter on Haleakala have provided system Mueller matrices over full telescope articulation for a 15-reflection coude system. AEOS and HiVIS are a DKIST analog with a many-fold coude optical feed and similar mirror coatings creating 100% polarization cross-talk with altitude, azimuth and wavelength. Polarization modeling predictions using Zemax have successfully matched the altitude-azimuth-wavelength dependence on HiVIS with the few percent amplitude limitations of several instrument artifacts. Polarization predictions for coude beam paths depend greatly on modeling the angle-of-incidence dependences in powered optics and the mirror coating formulations. A 6 month HiVIS daytime sky calibration plan has been analyzed for accuracy under a wide range of sky conditions and data analysis algorithms. Predictions of polarimetric performance for the DKIST first-light instrumentation suite have been created under a range of configurations. These new modeling tools and polarization predictions have substantial impact for the design, fabrication and calibration process in the presence of manufacturing issues, science use-case requirements and ultimate system calibration

  13. Predicting Visual Distraction Using Driving Performance Data

    PubMed Central

    Kircher, Katja; Ahlstrom, Christer

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral variables are often used as performance indicators (PIs) of visual or internal distraction induced by secondary tasks. The objective of this study is to investigate whether visual distraction can be predicted by driving performance PIs in a naturalistic setting. Visual distraction is here defined by a gaze based real-time distraction detection algorithm called AttenD. Seven drivers used an instrumented vehicle for one month each in a small scale field operational test. For each of the visual distraction events detected by AttenD, seven PIs such as steering wheel reversal rate and throttle hold were calculated. Corresponding data were also calculated for time periods during which the drivers were classified as attentive. For each PI, means between distracted and attentive states were calculated using t-tests for different time-window sizes (2 – 40 s), and the window width with the smallest resulting p-value was selected as optimal. Based on the optimized PIs, logistic regression was used to predict whether the drivers were attentive or distracted. The logistic regression resulted in predictions which were 76 % correct (sensitivity = 77 % and specificity = 76 %). The conclusion is that there is a relationship between behavioral variables and visual distraction, but the relationship is not strong enough to accurately predict visual driver distraction. Instead, behavioral PIs are probably best suited as complementary to eye tracking based algorithms in order to make them more accurate and robust. PMID:21050615

  14. Far field fallout prediction techniques. Doctoral thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, W.S. Jr.

    1983-12-01

    A calculational technique for use in predicting fallout far downwind from nuclear bursts is developed and validated. Possible siting strategies for the next generation of missiles might invite a concentrated attack by thousands of nuclear warheads. The resulting fallout field could consist of the superposition of thousands of single burst patterns. The downwind extent of damaging radiation levels would extend beyond the distances to which calculations are usually performed for single bursts. Numerical models currently available cannot be extended to these large downwind distances because of the artificial pattern break up inherent in their numerical quadrature and because of prohibitive computing requirements. Two approaches to this problem are taken here. First, a numerical smoothing which conserves radioactivity is developed to help prevent pattern break up. This is partially successful in that it extends the predictive range farther downwind, but not far enough. The second approach is to abandon the numerical quadrature -- known as disc tossing -- and adopt a whole cloud smearing approach. The key function needed for the smearing approach, the fractional arrival rate of activity on the ground, is derived directly from physical principles and validated by comparison with an extensive series of numerical (disc tosser) predictions.

  15. Efficient prediction designs for random fields

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Werner G; Pronzato, Luc; Rendas, Joao; Waldl, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    For estimation and predictions of random fields, it is increasingly acknowledged that the kriging variance may be a poor representative of true uncertainty. Experimental designs based on more elaborate criteria that are appropriate for empirical kriging (EK) are then often non-space-filling and very costly to determine. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using a compound criterion inspired by an equivalence theorem type relation to build designs quasi-optimal for the EK variance when space-filling designs become unsuitable. Two algorithms are proposed, one relying on stochastic optimization to explicitly identify the Pareto front, whereas the second uses the surrogate criteria as local heuristic to choose the points at which the (costly) true EK variance is effectively computed. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms presented on both a simple simulated example and a real oceanographic dataset. © 2014 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26300698

  16. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  17. Microgravity Geyser and Flow Field Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hochstein, J. I.; Marchetta, J. G.; Thornton, R. J.

    2006-01-01

    Modeling and prediction of flow fields and geyser formation in microgravity cryogenic propellant tanks was investigated. A computational simulation was used to reproduce the test matrix of experimental results performed by other investigators, as well as to model the flows in a larger tank. An underprediction of geyser height by the model led to a sensitivity study to determine if variations in surface tension coefficient, contact angle, or jet pipe turbulence significantly influence the simulations. It was determined that computational geyser height is not sensitive to slight variations in any of these items. An existing empirical correlation based on dimensionless parameters was re-examined in an effort to improve the accuracy of geyser prediction. This resulted in the proposal for a re-formulation of two dimensionless parameters used in the correlation; the non-dimensional geyser height and the Bond number. It was concluded that the new non-dimensional geyser height shows little promise. Although further data will be required to make a definite judgement, the reformulation of the Bond number provided correlations that are more accurate and appear to be more general than the previously established correlation.

  18. Trends in reservoir performance prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Mackenzie, A.S.

    1994-12-31

    Stronger links between geoscience and petroleum engineering are being fostered by new tools and organizations. These linkages are improving the effectiveness of business decisions concerning reservoir performance, and are generating new challenges for the next generation of tools.

  19. Magnetic fields and scintillator performance

    SciTech Connect

    Green, D.; Ronzhin, A.; Hagopian, V.

    1995-06-01

    Experimental data have shown that the light output of a scintillator depends on the magnitude of the externally applied magnetic fields, and that this variation can affect the calorimeter calibration and possibly resolution. The goal of the measurements presented here is to study the light yield of scintillators in high magnetic fields in conditions that are similar to those anticipated for the LHC CMS detector. Two independent measurements were performed, the first at Fermilab and the second at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory at Florida State University.

  20. Performance degradation in predicting topsoil organic carbon contents using reflectance spectra from lab, field to SPOT scales over a periurban region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaudour, E.; Gilliot, J. M.; Bel, L.; De Junet, A.; Michelin, J.; Hadjar, D.; Cambier, P.; Houot, S.; Coquet, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Within the framework of the French Gessol3 Programme (Prostock project), this study aims at comparing various observation scales for predicting topsoil organic carbon (SOC) content using Vis-NIR-SWIR reflectance spectra successively collected at the lab, in bare agricultural fields or extracted from atmospherically corrected multispectral SPOT images of very high (2.5 m) and medium low (20 m) spatial resolutions. The spatial coverage is that of a large periurban area (221 km2) characterized by cereal cropping systems and contrasting soil types. Considering either regional (entire periurban area) or local (a 6 ha-experimental field) scales, SOC contents were estimated from Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) modelling of lab and field spectra, for a number of latent variables comprised between 1 and 20. Regression robustness was evaluated through a series of 500-1000 bootstrapped datasets of calibration/validation samples generated amongst a total of 165 sampled sites. The optimal number of latent variables (BestComp) was chosen considering the lowest median validation Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and for this BestComp, calibration/validation sets leading to minimum, median and maximum validation RMSE were considered. For satellite images, SOC contents were estimated from multiple linear (ML) modelling and the calibration/validation set leading to lowest calibration RMSE was selected for applying regression equation to the image pixels with bare soils. RMSE, bias and uncertainty were compared between the different models. At the regional scale, PLSR lab and field-based SOC models resulted in median validation RMSE values of ~3 g.kg-1and ~4 g.kg-1 respectively (≤0.95 g.kg-1 locally for lab-based models), while ML image-based SOC models resulted in median validation RMSE values between ~4-6.6 g.kg-1. Using an additional independent set of pixels with bare soils, ML models applied to the SPOT images were 'post-validated' resulting in validation RMSE values of ~4

  1. A nozzle internal performance prediction method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, John R.

    1992-01-01

    A prediction method was written and incorporated into a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code (PAB3D) for the calculation of nozzle internal performance. The following quantities are calculated: (1) discharge coefficient; (2) normal, side, and axial thrust ratios; (3) rolling, pitching, and yawing moments; and (4) effective pitch and yaw vector angles. Four different case studies are presented to confirm the applicability of the methodology. Internal and, in most situations, external flow-field regions are required to be modeled. The computed nozzle discharge coefficient matches both the level and the trend of the experimental data within quoted experimental data accuracy (0.5 percent). Moment and force ratios are generally within 1 to 2 percent of the absolute level of experimental data, with the trends of data matched accurately.

  2. Program Predicts Performance of Optical Parametric Oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cross, Patricia L.; Bowers, Mark

    2006-01-01

    A computer program predicts the performances of solid-state lasers that operate at wavelengths from ultraviolet through mid-infrared and that comprise various combinations of stable and unstable resonators, optical parametric oscillators (OPOs), and sum-frequency generators (SFGs), including second-harmonic generators (SHGs). The input to the program describes the signal, idler, and pump beams; the SFG and OPO crystals; and the laser geometry. The program calculates the electric fields of the idler, pump, and output beams at three locations (inside the laser resonator, just outside the input mirror, and just outside the output mirror) as functions of time for the duration of the pump beam. For each beam, the electric field is used to calculate the fluence at the output mirror, plus summary parameters that include the centroid location, the radius of curvature of the wavefront leaving through the output mirror, the location and size of the beam waist, and a quantity known, variously, as a propagation constant or beam-quality factor. The program provides a typical Windows interface for entering data and selecting files. The program can include as many as six plot windows, each containing four graphs.

  3. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  4. Evaluation testbed for ATD performance prediction (ETAPP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ralph, Scott K.; Eaton, Ross; Snorrason, Magnús; Irvine, John; Vanstone, Steve

    2007-04-01

    Automatic target detection (ATD) systems process imagery to detect and locate targets in imagery in support of a variety of military missions. Accurate prediction of ATD performance would assist in system design and trade studies, collection management, and mission planning. A need exists for ATD performance prediction based exclusively on information available from the imagery and its associated metadata. We present a predictor based on image measures quantifying the intrinsic ATD difficulty on an image. The modeling effort consists of two phases: a learning phase, where image measures are computed for a set of test images, the ATD performance is measured, and a prediction model is developed; and a second phase to test and validate performance prediction. The learning phase produces a mapping, valid across various ATR algorithms, which is even applicable when no image truth is available (e.g., when evaluating denied area imagery). The testbed has plug-in capability to allow rapid evaluation of new ATR algorithms. The image measures employed in the model include: statistics derived from a constant false alarm rate (CFAR) processor, the Power Spectrum Signature, and others. We present performance predictors for two trained ATD classifiers, one constructed using using GENIE Pro TM, a tool developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the other eCognition TM, developed by Definiens (http://www.definiens.com/products). We present analyses of the two performance predictions, and compare the underlying prediction models. The paper concludes with a discussion of future research.

  5. Predictions of Performance in Career Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Novick, M. R.; And Others

    Prediction weights for educational programs in 22 vocational and technical fields are provided using ability scores from the American College Testing Program (ACT) Career Planning Profile and a Bayesian regression theory. The criterion variable studies was first-semester grade-point average. Each vocational-technical program analyzed was…

  6. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  7. Experimental evaluation of radiosity for room sound-field prediction.

    PubMed

    Hodgson, Murray; Nosal, Eva-Marie

    2006-08-01

    An acoustical radiosity model was evaluated for how it performs in predicting real room sound fields. This was done by comparing radiosity predictions with experimental results for three existing rooms--a squash court, a classroom, and an office. Radiosity predictions were also compared with those by ray tracing--a "reference" prediction model--for both specular and diffuse surface reflection. Comparisons were made for detailed and discretized echograms, sound-decay curves, sound-propagation curves, and the variations with frequency of four room-acoustical parameters--EDT, RT, D50, and C80. In general, radiosity and diffuse ray tracing gave very similar predictions. Predictions by specular ray tracing were often very different. Radiosity agreed well with experiment in some cases, less well in others. Definitive conclusions regarding the accuracy with which the rooms were modeled, or the accuracy of the radiosity approach, were difficult to draw. The results suggest that radiosity predicts room sound fields with some accuracy, at least as well as diffuse ray tracing and, in general, better than specular ray tracing. The predictions of detailed echograms are less accurate, those of derived room-acoustical parameters more accurate. The results underline the need to develop experimental methods for accurately characterizing the absorptive and reflective characteristics of room surfaces, possible including phase. PMID:16938969

  8. High Performance Field Reversed Configurations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binderbauer, Michl

    2014-10-01

    The field-reversed configuration (FRC) is a prolate compact toroid with poloidal magnetic fields. FRCs could lead to economic fusion reactors with high power density, simple geometry, natural divertor, ease of translation, and possibly capable of burning aneutronic fuels. However, as in other high-beta plasmas, there are stability and confinement concerns. These concerns can be addressed by introducing and maintaining a significant fast ion population in the system. This is the approach adopted by TAE and implemented for the first time in the C-2 device. Studying the physics of FRCs driven by Neutral Beam (NB) injection, significant improvements were made in confinement and stability. Early C-2 discharges had relatively good confinement, but global power losses exceeded the available NB input power. The addition of axially streaming plasma guns, magnetic end plugs as well as advanced surface conditioning leads to dramatic reductions in turbulence driven losses and greatly improved stability. As a result, fast ion confinement significantly improved and allowed for build-up of a dominant fast particle population. Under such appropriate conditions we achieved highly reproducible, long-lived, macroscopically stable FRCs with record lifetimes. This demonstrated many beneficial effects of large orbit particles and their performance impact on FRCs Together these achievements point to the prospect of beam-driven FRCs as a path toward fusion reactors. This presentation will review and expand on key results and present context for their interpretation.

  9. Performance Monitoring in Monkey Frontal Eye Field

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Dian; Ferrera, Vincent P.

    2014-01-01

    The frontal eye fields (FEF) are thought to mediate response selection during oculomotor decision tasks. In addition, many FEF neurons have robust postsaccadic responses, but their role in postchoice evaluative processes (online performance monitoring) is only beginning to become apparent. Here we report error-related neural activity in FEF while monkeys performed a biased speed-categorization task that enticed the animals to make impulsive errors. Twenty-three percent of cells in macaque FEF coded an internally generated error-related signal, and many of the same cells also coded task difficulty. The observed responses are primarily consistent with three related concepts that have been associated with performance monitoring: (1) response conflict; (2) uncertainty; and (3) reward prediction. Overall, our findings suggest a novel role for the FEF as part of the neural network that evaluates the preceding choice to optimize behavior in the future. PMID:24478349

  10. Predicting Language Performance in Hearing Impaired Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monsees, Edna K.

    The 2-year study evaluated the language performance of 69 hearing impaired, preschool children born following the rubella epidemic of the early 1960's in order to develop an instrument for objectively assessing language achievement and a predictive index of language achievement. Two language rating scales were developed which were tied to the…

  11. Why Do Spatial Abilities Predict Mathematical Performance?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tosto, Maria Grazia; Hanscombe, Ken B.; Haworth, Claire M. A.; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Petrill, Stephen A.; Dale, Philip S.; Malykh, Sergey; Plomin, Robert; Kovas, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    Spatial ability predicts performance in mathematics and eventual expertise in science, technology and engineering. Spatial skills have also been shown to rely on neuronal networks partially shared with mathematics. Understanding the nature of this association can inform educational practices and intervention for mathematical underperformance.…

  12. What predicts performance during clinical psychology training?

    PubMed Central

    Scior, Katrina; Bradley, Caroline E; Potts, Henry W W; Woolf, Katherine; de C Williams, Amanda C

    2014-01-01

    Objectives While the question of who is likely to be selected for clinical psychology training has been studied, evidence on performance during training is scant. This study explored data from seven consecutive intakes of the UK's largest clinical psychology training course, aiming to identify what factors predict better or poorer outcomes. Design Longitudinal cross-sectional study using prospective and retrospective data. Method Characteristics at application were analysed in relation to a range of in-course assessments for 274 trainee clinical psychologists who had completed or were in the final stage of their training. Results Trainees were diverse in age, pre-training experience, and academic performance at A-level (advanced level certificate required for university admission), but not in gender or ethnicity. Failure rates across the three performance domains (academic, clinical, research) were very low, suggesting that selection was successful in screening out less suitable candidates. Key predictors of good performance on the course were better A-levels and better degree class. Non-white students performed less well on two outcomes. Type and extent of pre-training clinical experience on outcomes had varied effects on outcome. Research supervisor ratings emerged as global indicators and predicted nearly all outcomes, but may have been biased as they were retrospective. Referee ratings predicted only one of the seven outcomes examined, and interview ratings predicted none of the outcomes. Conclusions Predicting who will do well or poorly in clinical psychology training is complex. Interview and referee ratings may well be successful in screening out unsuitable candidates, but appear to be a poor guide to performance on the course. Practitioner points While referee and selection interview ratings did not predict performance during training, they may be useful in screening out unsuitable candidates at the application stage High school final academic performance

  13. Predicting pavement distress in oil field areas

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, J.M.; Scullion, T.; Stampley, B.E.

    1984-05-01

    A study on oil field traffic characteristics was performed and a procedure was developed for assessing current and future effects of oil field truck traffic on surface-treated (stage construction type) pavements. A computer program calculates several types of pavement distress and serviceability parameters to evaluate pavement performance under various axle load repetitions. Stepwise regression analysis of 132 surface-treated pavement sections led to the development of individual distress equations for rutting, raveling, flushing, alligator cracking, patching, longitudinal and transverse cracking, and failures (potholes). The versatility of the program provides a means of anticipating early pavement failures due to increased axle load repetitions. The program also provides the basic framework for computing the effects of other ''special-use'' truck traffic demands.

  14. Predicting pavement distress in oil field areas

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, J.M.; Scullion, T.; Stampley, B.E.

    1983-05-01

    A study on oil field traffic characteristics was performed and a procedure was developed for assessing current and future effects of oil field truck traffic on surface-treated (stage construction type) pavements. A computer program calculates several types of pavement distress and serviceability parameters to evaluate pavement performance under various axle load repetitions. Stepwise regression analysis of 132 surface-treated pavement sections led to the development of individual distress equations for rutting, raveling, flushing, alligator cracking, patching, longitudinal and transverse cracking, and failures (potholes). The versatility of the program provides a means of anticipating early pavement failures due to increased axle load repetitions. The program also provides the basic framework for computing the effects of other ''special-use'' truck traffic demands.

  15. A decision-support tool to predict spray deposition of insecticides in commercial potato fields and its implications for their performance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In conventional and most IPM programs, application of insecticides continues to be the most important responsive pest control tactic. For both immediate and long-term optimization and sustainability of insecticide applications, it is paramount to study the factors affecting the performance of insect...

  16. Performance optimization in electric field gradient focusing.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xuefei; Farnsworth, Paul B; Tolley, H Dennis; Warnick, Karl F; Woolley, Adam T; Lee, Milton L

    2009-01-01

    Electric field gradient focusing (EFGF) is a technique used to simultaneously separate and concentrate biomacromolecules, such as proteins, based on the opposing forces of an electric field gradient and a hydrodynamic flow. Recently, we reported EFGF devices fabricated completely from copolymers functionalized with poly(ethylene glycol), which display excellent resistance to protein adsorption. However, the previous devices did not provide the predicted linear electric field gradient and stable current. To improve performance, Tris-HCl buffer that was previously doped in the hydrogel was replaced with a phosphate buffer containing a salt (i.e., potassium chloride, KCl) with high mobility ions. The new devices exhibited stable current, good reproducibility, and a linear electric field distribution in agreement with the shaped gradient region design due to improved ion transport in the hydrogel. The field gradient was calculated based on theory to be approximately 5.76 V/cm(2) for R-phycoerythrin when the applied voltage was 500 V. The effect of EFGF separation channel dimensions was also investigated; a narrower focused band was achieved in a smaller diameter channel. The relationship between the bandwidth and channel diameter is consistent with theory. Three model proteins were resolved in an EFGF channel of this design. The improved device demonstrated 14,000-fold concentration of a protein sample (from 2 ng/mL to 27 microg/mL). PMID:19081099

  17. Computer Program Predicts Turbine-Stage Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, Robert J.; Haas, Jeffrey E.; Katsanis, Theodore

    1988-01-01

    MTSBL updated version of flow-analysis programs MERIDL and TSONIC coupled to boundary-layer program BLAYER. Method uses quasi-three-dimensional, inviscid, stream-function flow analysis iteratively coupled to calculated losses so changes in losses result in changes in flow distribution. Manner effects both configuration on flow distribution and flow distribution on losses taken into account in prediction of performance of stage. Written in FORTRAN IV.

  18. Performance predictions for the Keck telescope adaptive optics system

    SciTech Connect

    Gavel, D.T.; Olivier, S.S.

    1995-08-07

    The second Keck ten meter telescope (Keck-11) is slated to have an infrared-optimized adaptive optics system in the 1997--1998 time frame. This system will provide diffraction-limited images in the 1--3 micron region and the ability to use a diffraction-limited spectroscopy slit. The AO system is currently in the preliminary design phase and considerable analysis has been performed in order to predict its performance under various seeing conditions. In particular we have investigated the point-spread function, energy through a spectroscopy slit, crowded field contrast, object limiting magnitude, field of view, and sky coverage with natural and laser guide stars.

  19. IR system field performance with superresolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fanning, Jonathan; Miller, Justin; Park, Jennifer; Tener, Gene; Reynolds, Joseph; O'Shea, Patrick; Halford, Carl; Driggers, Ron

    2007-04-01

    Superresolution processing is currently being used to improve the performance of infrared imagers through an increase in sampling, the removal of aliasing, and the reduction of fixed-pattern noise. The performance improvement of superresolution has not been previously tested on military targets. This paper presents the results of human perception experiments to determine field performance on the NVESD standard military eight (8)-target set using a prototype LWIR camera. These experiments test and compare human performance of both still images and movie clips, each generated with and without superresolution processing. Lockheed Martin's XR® algorithm is tested as a specific example of a modern combined superresolution and image processing algorithm. Basic superresolution with no additional processing is tested to help determine the benefit of separate processes. The superresolution processing is modeled in NVThermIP for comparison to the perception test. The measured range to 70% probability of identification using XR® is increased by approximately 34% while the 50% range is increased by approximately 19% for this camera. A comparison case is modeled using a more undersampled commercial MWIR sensor that predicts a 45% increase in range performance from superresolution.

  20. Predicting sample size required for classification performance

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Supervised learning methods need annotated data in order to generate efficient models. Annotated data, however, is a relatively scarce resource and can be expensive to obtain. For both passive and active learning methods, there is a need to estimate the size of the annotated sample required to reach a performance target. Methods We designed and implemented a method that fits an inverse power law model to points of a given learning curve created using a small annotated training set. Fitting is carried out using nonlinear weighted least squares optimization. The fitted model is then used to predict the classifier's performance and confidence interval for larger sample sizes. For evaluation, the nonlinear weighted curve fitting method was applied to a set of learning curves generated using clinical text and waveform classification tasks with active and passive sampling methods, and predictions were validated using standard goodness of fit measures. As control we used an un-weighted fitting method. Results A total of 568 models were fitted and the model predictions were compared with the observed performances. Depending on the data set and sampling method, it took between 80 to 560 annotated samples to achieve mean average and root mean squared error below 0.01. Results also show that our weighted fitting method outperformed the baseline un-weighted method (p < 0.05). Conclusions This paper describes a simple and effective sample size prediction algorithm that conducts weighted fitting of learning curves. The algorithm outperformed an un-weighted algorithm described in previous literature. It can help researchers determine annotation sample size for supervised machine learning. PMID:22336388

  1. Developing a gas rocket performance prediction technique

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morgenthaler, J. H.; Moon, L. F.; Stepien, W. R.

    1974-01-01

    A simple, semi-empirical performance correlation/prediction technique applicable to gaseous and liquid propellant rocket engines is presented. Excellent correlations were attained for over 100 test firings by adjusting the computation of the gaseous mixing of an unreactive, coaxial jet using a correlation factor, F, which resulted in prediction of the experimental combustion efficiency for each firing. Static pressure, mean velocity and turbulence intensity in the developing region of non-reactive coaxial jets, typical of those of coaxial injector elements were determined. Detailed profiles were obtained at twelve axial locations (extending from the nozzle exit for a distance of five diameters) downstream from a single element of the Bell Aerospace H2/O2 19-element coaxial injector. These data are compared with analytical predictions made using both eddy viscosity and turbulence kinetic energy mixing models and available computer codes. Comparisons were disappointing, demonstrating the necessity of developing improved turbulence models and computational techniques before detailed predictions of practical coaxial free jet flows are attempted.

  2. Prediction of tilted capillary barrier performance

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, S.W.; McCord, J.T.; Dwyer, S.F.

    1997-04-01

    Capillary barriers, consisting of tilted fine-over-coarse layers under unsaturated conditions, have been suggested as landfill covers to divert water infiltration away from sensitive underground regions, especially for arid and semi-arid regions. The Hydrological Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer code is an evaluation tool for landfill covers used by designers and regulators. HELP is a quasi-two-dimensional model that predicts moisture movement into and through the underground soil and waste layers. Processes modeled within HELP include precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, unsaturated vertical drainage, saturated lateral drainage, and leakage through liners. Unfortunately, multidimensional unsaturated flow phenomena that are necessary for evaluating tilted capillary barriers are not included in HELP. Differences between the predictions of the HELP and those from a multidimensional unsaturated flow code are presented to assess the two different approaches. Comparisons are presented for the landfill covers including capillary barrier configurations at the Alternative Landfill Cover Demonstration (ALCD) being conducted at Sandia.

  3. Hypersonic Interceptor Performance Evaluation Center aero-optics performance predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutton, George W.; Pond, John E.; Snow, Ronald; Hwang, Yanfang

    1993-06-01

    This paper describes the Hypersonic Interceptor Performance Evaluation Center's (HIPEC) aerooptics performance predictions capability. It includes code results for three dimensional shapes and comparisons to initial experiments. HIPEC consists of a collection of aerothermal, aerodynamic computational codes which are capable of covering the entire flight regime from subsonic to hypersonic flow and include chemical reactions and turbulence. Heat transfer to the various surfaces is calculated as an input to cooling and ablation processes. HIPEC also has aero-optics codes to determine the effect of the mean flowfield and turbulence on the tracking and imaging capability of on-board optical sensors. The paper concentrates on the latter aspects.

  4. Evaluating cotton stripper field performance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cotton strippers are used primarily in the Southern High Plains due to the specific cotton varieties grown. Typically, cotton strippers cost about two-thirds the price of a cotton picker and range from one-half to one-fourth the horsepower. A cotton stripper also has a higher field and harvesting ef...

  5. Comparing theories' performance in predicting violence.

    PubMed

    Haas, Henriette; Cusson, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The stakes of choosing the best theory as a basis for violence prevention and offender rehabilitation are high. However, no single theory of violence has ever been universally accepted by a majority of established researchers. Psychiatry, psychology and sociology are each subdivided into different schools relying upon different premises. All theories can produce empirical evidence for their validity, some of them stating the opposite of each other. Calculating different models with multivariate logistic regression on a dataset of N = 21,312 observations and ninety-two influences allowed a direct comparison of the performance of operationalizations of some of the most important schools. The psychopathology model ranked as the best model in terms of predicting violence right after the comprehensive interdisciplinary model. Next came the rational choice and lifestyle model and third the differential association and learning theory model. Other models namely the control theory model, the childhood-trauma model and the social conflict and reaction model turned out to have low sensitivities for predicting violence. Nevertheless, all models produced acceptable results in predictions of a non-violent outcome. PMID:25637261

  6. Texture metric that predicts target detection performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culpepper, Joanne B.

    2015-12-01

    Two texture metrics based on gray level co-occurrence error (GLCE) are used to predict probability of detection and mean search time. The two texture metrics are local clutter metrics and are based on the statistics of GLCE probability distributions. The degree of correlation between various clutter metrics and the target detection performance of the nine military vehicles in complex natural scenes found in the Search_2 dataset are presented. Comparison is also made between four other common clutter metrics found in the literature: root sum of squares, Doyle, statistical variance, and target structure similarity. The experimental results show that the GLCE energy metric is a better predictor of target detection performance when searching for targets in natural scenes than the other clutter metrics studied.

  7. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin M. Orr, Jr; Martin J. Blunt

    1998-03-31

    This project performs research in four main areas: laboratory experiments to measure three-phase relative permeability; network modeling to predict three-phase relative perme- ability; benchmark simulations of gas injection and waterfl ooding at the field scale; and the development of fast streamline techniques to study field-scale oil. The aim of the work is to achieve a comprehensive description of gas injection processes from the pore to the core to the reservoir scale. In this report we provide a detailed description of our measurements of three-phase relative permeability.

  8. Machine characterization and benchmark performance prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saavedra-Barrera, Rafael H.

    1988-01-01

    From runs of standard benchmarks or benchmark suites, it is not possible to characterize the machine nor to predict the run time of other benchmarks which have not been run. A new approach to benchmarking and machine characterization is reported. The creation and use of a machine analyzer is described, which measures the performance of a given machine on FORTRAN source language constructs. The machine analyzer yields a set of parameters which characterize the machine and spotlight its strong and weak points. Also described is a program analyzer, which analyzes FORTRAN programs and determines the frequency of execution of each of the same set of source language operations. It is then shown that by combining a machine characterization and a program characterization, we are able to predict with good accuracy the run time of a given benchmark on a given machine. Characterizations are provided for the Cray-X-MP/48, Cyber 205, IBM 3090/200, Amdahl 5840, Convex C-1, VAX 8600, VAX 11/785, VAX 11/780, SUN 3/50, and IBM RT-PC/125, and for the following benchmark programs or suites: Los Alamos (BMK8A1), Baskett, Linpack, Livermore Loops, Madelbrot Set, NAS Kernels, Shell Sort, Smith, Whetstone and Sieve of Erathostenes.

  9. Misleading performance in the supercomputing field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bailey, David H.

    1992-01-01

    The problems of misleading performance reporting and the evident lack of careful refereeing in the supercomputing field are discussed in detail. Included are some examples that have appeared in recently published scientific papers. Some guidelines for reporting performance are presented the adoption of which would raise the level of professionalism and reduce the level of confusion in the field of supercomputing.

  10. Collective hormonal profiles predict group performance.

    PubMed

    Akinola, Modupe; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Mehta, Pranjal H; Lu, Jackson G

    2016-08-30

    Prior research has shown that an individual's hormonal profile can influence the individual's social standing within a group. We introduce a different construct-a collective hormonal profile-which describes a group's hormonal make-up. We test whether a group's collective hormonal profile is related to its performance. Analysis of 370 individuals randomly assigned to work in 74 groups of three to six individuals revealed that group-level concentrations of testosterone and cortisol interact to predict a group's standing across groups. Groups with a collective hormonal profile characterized by high testosterone and low cortisol exhibited the highest performance. These collective hormonal level results remained reliable when controlling for personality traits and group-level variability in hormones. These findings support the hypothesis that groups with a biological propensity toward status pursuit (high testosterone) coupled with reduced stress-axis activity (low cortisol) engage in profit-maximizing decision-making. The current work extends the dual-hormone hypothesis to the collective level and provides a neurobiological perspective on the factors that determine who rises to the top across, not just within, social hierarchies. PMID:27528679

  11. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, Martin J.; Orr, Jr., Franklin M.

    1999-12-20

    This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1998 - September 1998 under the third year of a three-year Department of Energy (DOE) grant on the ''Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs''. The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and numerical simulation. The research is divided into four main areas: (1) Pore scale modeling of three-phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factors influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three-phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator.

  12. Why do spatial abilities predict mathematical performance?

    PubMed

    Tosto, Maria Grazia; Hanscombe, Ken B; Haworth, Claire M A; Davis, Oliver S P; Petrill, Stephen A; Dale, Philip S; Malykh, Sergey; Plomin, Robert; Kovas, Yulia

    2014-05-01

    Spatial ability predicts performance in mathematics and eventual expertise in science, technology and engineering. Spatial skills have also been shown to rely on neuronal networks partially shared with mathematics. Understanding the nature of this association can inform educational practices and intervention for mathematical underperformance. Using data on two aspects of spatial ability and three domains of mathematical ability from 4174 pairs of 12-year-old twins, we examined the relative genetic and environmental contributions to variation in spatial ability and to its relationship with different aspects of mathematics. Environmental effects explained most of the variation in spatial ability (~70%) and in mathematical ability (~60%) at this age, and the effects were the same for boys and girls. Genetic factors explained about 60% of the observed relationship between spatial ability and mathematics, with a substantial portion of the relationship explained by common environmental influences (26% and 14% by shared and non-shared environments respectively). These findings call for further research aimed at identifying specific environmental mediators of the spatial-mathematics relationship. PMID:24410830

  13. Changes in Memory Prediction Accuracy: Age and Performance Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearman, Ann; Trujillo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Memory performance predictions are subjective estimates of possible memory task performance. The purpose of this study was to examine possible factors related to changes in word list performance predictions made by younger and older adults. Factors included memory self-efficacy, actual performance, and perceptions of performance. The current study…

  14. PREDICTION OF CHEMICAL RESIDUES IN AQUATIC ORGANISMS FOR A FIELD DISCHARGE SITUATION.

    EPA Science Inventory

    A field study was performed which compared predicted and measured concentrations of chemicals in receiving water organisms from three sampling locations on Five Mile Creek, Birmingham, Al. Two point source discharges, both from coke manufacturing facilities, were included in the ...

  15. Performance of catalyzed hydrazine in field applications

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, T.B.

    1987-01-01

    The performance of newly developed oxygen scavengers for boilers is often compared to sulfite and hydrazine. Catalyzed hydrazine out-performs hydrazine and might be preferred when catalyzed sulfite cannot be used. Data from a Midwest Utility confirms that, under field conditions, catalyzed hydrazine out-performance hydrazine and carbohydrazine when feedwater oxygen and iron levels were critical. Catalyzed hydrazine might be preferred when high performance and economics are the primary concerns.

  16. Predicting vegetation-stabilized dune field morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.

    2012-09-01

    The morphology of vegetation-stabilized dune fields on the North American Great Plains (NAGP) mostly comprises parabolic dunes; stabilized barchan and transverse dunes are rare, with the exception of transverse and barchan mega-dunes in the Nebraska Sand Hills. We present a hypothesis from a numerical dune field model explaining the vegetation-stabilized morphology of dunes under unidirectional wind. Simulations with a range of initial dune morphologies (closely-spaced transverse to disperse barchans) indicate that stabilized morphology is determined by the ratio of slipface deposition rate to deposition tolerance of vegetation. Slipface deposition rate is related to dune height, flux, and celerity. With a fixed depositional tolerance, large, slow-moving dunes have low slipface deposition rates and ‘freeze’ in place once vegetation is introduced. Relatively small, fast dunes have high slipface deposition rates and evolve into parabolic dunes, often colliding during stabilization. Our hypothesis could explain differences in stabilized morphology across the NAGP and elsewhere.

  17. Genomic Prediction of Testcross Performance in Canola (Brassica napus).

    PubMed

    Jan, Habib U; Abbadi, Amine; Lücke, Sophie; Nichols, Richard A; Snowdon, Rod J

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is a modern breeding approach where genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker profiles are simultaneously used to estimate performance of untested genotypes. In this study, the potential of genomic selection methods to predict testcross performance for hybrid canola breeding was applied for various agronomic traits based on genome-wide marker profiles. A total of 475 genetically diverse spring-type canola pollinator lines were genotyped at 24,403 single-copy, genome-wide SNP loci. In parallel, the 950 F1 testcross combinations between the pollinators and two representative testers were evaluated for a number of important agronomic traits including seedling emergence, days to flowering, lodging, oil yield and seed yield along with essential seed quality characters including seed oil content and seed glucosinolate content. A ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) model was applied in combination with 500 cross-validations for each trait to predict testcross performance, both across the whole population as well as within individual subpopulations or clusters, based solely on SNP profiles. Subpopulations were determined using multidimensional scaling and K-means clustering. Genomic prediction accuracy across the whole population was highest for seed oil content (0.81) followed by oil yield (0.75) and lowest for seedling emergence (0.29). For seed yieId, seed glucosinolate, lodging resistance and days to onset of flowering (DTF), prediction accuracies were 0.45, 0.61, 0.39 and 0.56, respectively. Prediction accuracies could be increased for some traits by treating subpopulations separately; a strategy which only led to moderate improvements for some traits with low heritability, like seedling emergence. No useful or consistent increase in accuracy was obtained by inclusion of a population substructure covariate in the model. Testcross performance prediction using genome-wide SNP markers shows considerable

  18. Genomic Prediction of Testcross Performance in Canola (Brassica napus)

    PubMed Central

    Jan, Habib U.; Abbadi, Amine; Lücke, Sophie; Nichols, Richard A.; Snowdon, Rod J.

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is a modern breeding approach where genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker profiles are simultaneously used to estimate performance of untested genotypes. In this study, the potential of genomic selection methods to predict testcross performance for hybrid canola breeding was applied for various agronomic traits based on genome-wide marker profiles. A total of 475 genetically diverse spring-type canola pollinator lines were genotyped at 24,403 single-copy, genome-wide SNP loci. In parallel, the 950 F1 testcross combinations between the pollinators and two representative testers were evaluated for a number of important agronomic traits including seedling emergence, days to flowering, lodging, oil yield and seed yield along with essential seed quality characters including seed oil content and seed glucosinolate content. A ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) model was applied in combination with 500 cross-validations for each trait to predict testcross performance, both across the whole population as well as within individual subpopulations or clusters, based solely on SNP profiles. Subpopulations were determined using multidimensional scaling and K-means clustering. Genomic prediction accuracy across the whole population was highest for seed oil content (0.81) followed by oil yield (0.75) and lowest for seedling emergence (0.29). For seed yieId, seed glucosinolate, lodging resistance and days to onset of flowering (DTF), prediction accuracies were 0.45, 0.61, 0.39 and 0.56, respectively. Prediction accuracies could be increased for some traits by treating subpopulations separately; a strategy which only led to moderate improvements for some traits with low heritability, like seedling emergence. No useful or consistent increase in accuracy was obtained by inclusion of a population substructure covariate in the model. Testcross performance prediction using genome-wide SNP markers shows considerable

  19. How Coriolis meter design affects field performance

    SciTech Connect

    Levien, A.; Dudiak, A.

    1995-12-31

    Although many possibilities exist for the design of Coriolis flowmeters, a common set of fundamental physical principles affect practical meter design. Design criteria such as tube geometry, alloy section, operating frequencies, stress levels, and tubing wall thickness have varying impacts on meter performance. Additionally, field conditions such as changing temperature, pressure, pipeline stress and vibration affect measurement performance. The challenge created in Coriolis flow meter design is to maximize the sensitivity of the meter Coriolis forces, while minimizing the impact of outside environmental influences. Data are presented on the physical principles that affect Coriolis flowmeters, and how the various aspects of meter design influence field performance.

  20. Predictions of H-mode performance in ITER

    SciTech Connect

    Budny, R. V.; Andre, R.; Bateman, G.; Halpern, F.; Kessel, C. E.; Kritz, A.; McCune, D.

    2008-03-03

    Time-dependent integrated predictive modeling is carried out using the PTRANSP code to predict fusion power and parameters such as alpha particle density and pressure in ITER H-mode plasmas. Auxiliary heating by negative ion neutral beam injection and ion cyclotron heating of He3 minority ions are modeled, and the GLF23 transport model is used in the prediction of the evolution of plasma temperature profiles. Effects of beam steering, beam torque, plasma rotation, beam current drive, pedestal temperatures, sawtooth oscillations, magnetic diffusion, and accumulation of He ash are treated self-consistently. Variations in assumptions associated with physics uncertainties for standard base-line DT H-mode plasmas (with Ip=15 MA, BTF=5.3 T, and Greenwald fraction=0.86) lead to a range of predictions for DT fusion power PDT and quasi-steady state fusion QDT (≡ PDT/Paux). Typical predictions assuming Paux = 50-53 MW yield PDT = 250- 720 MW and QDT = 5 - 14. In some cases where Paux is ramped down or shut off after initial flat-top conditions, quasi-steady QDT can be considerably higher, even infinite. Adverse physics assumptions such as existence of an inward pinch of the helium ash and an ash recycling coefficient approaching unity lead to very low values for PDT. Alternative scenarios with different heating and reduced performance regimes are also considered including plasmas with only H or D isotopes, DT plasmas with toroidal field reduced 10 or 20%, and discharges with reduced beam voltage. In full-performance D-only discharges, tritium burn-up is predicted to generate central tritium densities up to 1016/m3 and DT neutron rates up to 5×1016/s, compared with the DD neutron rates of 6×1017/s. Predictions with the toroidal field reduced 10 or 20% below the planned 5.3 T and keeping the same q98, Greenwald fraction, and Βη indicate that the fusion yield PDT and QDT will be lower by about a factor of two (scaling as B3.5).

  1. Misleading Performance Reporting in the Supercomputing Field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bailey, David H.; Kutler, Paul (Technical Monitor)

    1992-01-01

    In a previous humorous note, I outlined twelve ways in which performance figures for scientific supercomputers can be distorted. In this paper, the problem of potentially misleading performance reporting is discussed in detail. Included are some examples that have appeared in recent published scientific papers. This paper also includes some proposed guidelines for reporting performance, the adoption of which would raise the level of professionalism and reduce the level of confusion in the field of supercomputing.

  2. Low thrust viscous nozzle flow fields prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liaw, Goang-Shin

    1987-01-01

    An existing Navier-Stokes code (PARC2D) was used to compute the nozzle flow field. Grids were generated by the interactive grid generator codes TBGG and GENIE. All computations were made on the NASA/MSFC CRAY X-MP computer. Comparisons were made between the computations and MSFC in-house wall pressure measurements for CO2 flow through a conical nozzle having an area ratio of 40. Satisfactory agreements exist between the computations and measurements for different stagnation pressures of 29.4, 14.7, and 7.4 psia, at stagnation temperature of 1060 R. However, agreements did not match precisely near the nozzle exit. Several reasons for the lack of agreement are possible. The computational code assumes a constant gas gamma, whereas the gamma i.e. the specific heat ratio for CO2 varied from 1.22 in the plenum chamber to 1.38 at the nozzle exit. The computations also assumes adiabatic and no-slip walls. Both assumptions may not be correct. Finally, it is possible that condensation occurs during the nozzle expansion at the low stagnation pressure. The next phase of the work will incorporate variable gamma and slip wall boundary conditions in the computational code and develop a more accurate computer code.

  3. Free light fields can change the predictions of hybrid inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2012-04-01

    We show that the free light scalar fields that may exist in the inflationary Universe can change the predictions of the hybrid inflation model. Possible signatures are discussed, which can be used to discriminate the sources of the spectrum.

  4. Predicting Students' Performance in Elements of Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Kuiyuan; Uvah, Josaphat; Amin, Raid

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we assess students' performance in Elements of Statistics, one of the popular courses in general education, using data from UWF (University of West Florida) for fall 2008, fall 2009, and fall 2010 semesters. We analyze associations between students' performance in the course and several performance related factors including: college…

  5. Standard target sets for field sensor performance measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, John D.; O'Shea, Patrick; Palmer, John E.; Deaver, Dawne M.

    2006-05-01

    The US Army Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) Modeling and Simulation Division develops sensors models (FLIR 92, NV Therm, NV Therm IP) that predict the comparative performance of electro-optical sensors. The NVESD modeling branch developed a 12-vehicle, 12-aspect target signature set in 1998 with a known cycle criteria. It will be referred to as the 12-target set. This 12-target set has and will continue to be the modeling "gold standard" for laboratory human perception experiments supporting sensor performance modeling, and has been employed in dozens of published experiments. The 12-target set is, however, too costly for most acquisition field tests and evaluations. The authors developed an 8-vehicle 3-aspect target set, referred to as the 8- target set, and measured its discrimination task difficulty, (N50 and V50). Target identification (ID) range performance predictions for several sensors were made based on those V50/N50 values. A field collection of the 8-target set using those sensors provided imagery for a human perception study. The human perception study found excellent agreement between predicted and measured range performance. The goal of this development is to create a "silver standard" target set that is as dependable in measuring sensor performance as the "gold standard", and is affordable for Milestone A and other field trials.

  6. Predicting Death from Behavioral Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Botwinick, Jack; And Others

    1978-01-01

    This study described several brief behavioral measures which, with further validation, could be useful in predicting the deaths of older adults within a five-year period following testing. Such tests can be used in routine biomedical examinations, alerting the physician to possible problems in the future. (Author)

  7. Prediction of Mechanical Properties of Polymers With Various Force Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odegard, Gregory M.; Clancy, Thomas C.; Gates, Thomas S.

    2005-01-01

    The effect of force field type on the predicted elastic properties of a polyimide is examined using a multiscale modeling technique. Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to predict the atomic structure and elastic properties of the polymer by subjecting a representative volume element of the material to bulk and shear finite deformations. The elastic properties of the polyimide are determined using three force fields: AMBER, OPLS-AA, and MM3. The predicted values of Young s modulus and shear modulus of the polyimide are compared with experimental values. The results indicate that the mechanical properties of the polyimide predicted with the OPLS-AA force field most closely matched those from experiment. The results also indicate that while the complexity of the force field does not have a significant effect on the accuracy of predicted properties, small differences in the force constants and the functional form of individual terms in the force fields determine the accuracy of the force field in predicting the elastic properties of the polyimide.

  8. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, Martin J.; Orr, Franklin M.

    1999-05-17

    This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1997 - September 1998 under the second year of a three-year grant from the Department of Energy on the "Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs." The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulation. The original proposal described research in four areas: (1) Pore scale modeling of three phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factors influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator. Each state of the research is planned to provide input and insight into the next stage, such that at the end we should have an integrated understanding of the key factors affecting field scale displacements.

  9. Rotary-wing aerodynamics. Volume 2: Performance prediction of helicopters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keys, C. N.; Stephniewski, W. Z. (Editor)

    1979-01-01

    Application of theories, as well as, special methods of procedures applicable to performance prediction are illustrated first, on an example of the conventional helicopter and then, winged and tandem configurations. Performance prediction of conventional helicopters in hover and vertical ascent are investigated. Various approaches to performance prediction in forward translation are presented. Performance problems are discussed only this time, a wing is added to the baseline configuration, and both aircraft are compared with respect to their performance. This comparison is extended to a tandem. Appendices on methods for estimating performance guarantees and growth of aircraft concludes this volume.

  10. Germination and emergence tests for predicting switchgrass field establishment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The effect of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) seed quality tests on field establishment has not been addressed. Our objective was to evaluate the ability of seed quality tests to predict field establishment. Standard Association of Official Seed Analysts (AOSA) tests are based on the percentage of...

  11. Performance analysis and prediction in triathlon.

    PubMed

    Ofoghi, Bahadorreza; Zeleznikow, John; Macmahon, Clare; Rehula, Jan; Dwyer, Dan B

    2016-01-01

    Performance in triathlon is dependent upon factors that include somatotype, physiological capacity, technical proficiency and race strategy. Given the multidisciplinary nature of triathlon and the interaction between each of the three race components, the identification of target split times that can be used to inform the design of training plans and race pacing strategies is a complex task. The present study uses machine learning techniques to analyse a large database of performances in Olympic distance triathlons (2008-2012). The analysis reveals patterns of performance in five components of triathlon (three race "legs" and two transitions) and the complex relationships between performance in each component and overall performance in a race. The results provide three perspectives on the relationship between performance in each component of triathlon and the final placing in a race. These perspectives allow the identification of target split times that are required to achieve a certain final place in a race and the opportunity to make evidence-based decisions about race tactics in order to optimise performance. PMID:26177783

  12. Prediction of Ground Magnetic Field Fluctuations from Upstream Solar Wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigel, R. S.; Vassiliadis, D.; Horton, W.; Klimas, A. J.

    2001-12-01

    A study of the predictability of temporal fluctuations in auroral--zone ground magnetic fields is presented. The fluctuation measure considered is the absolute value of the horizontal field time derivative (dH/dt) averaged over a 15--30~minute interval. This averaging time allows for a prediction lead time of approximately 30--45~minutes, depending on the solar wind speed. The fluctuation level is predicted using a neural network mapping of solar wind plasma and field data from the ACE satellite. Various solar wind inputs to the network are considered to determine which variables contain the most information, or drives, ground magnetic field fluctuations. The predictability of ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are responsible for ground induction currents (GICs), is shown to depend strongly on both local time and latitude. For some magnetometers, the predictability is found to be highest at local times that have the highest average fluctuation level and lowest at local times that have the lowest average fluctuation level. A maximum of 50% of the variability in a time series composed of 30~minute averages of |dH/dt| can be explained by the solar wind. When time delayed values of the fluctuation level at nearby magnetometer stations are included, up to 70% of of the variance in the |dH/dt| time series can be predicted.

  13. A predictive model of human performance.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, R. F.; Carlson, L. D.

    1971-01-01

    An attempt is made to develop a model describing the overall responses of humans to exercise and environmental stresses for prediction of exhaustion vs an individual's physical characteristics. The principal components of the model are a steady state description of circulation and a dynamic description of thermal regulation. The circulatory portion of the system accepts changes in work load and oxygen pressure, while the thermal portion is influenced by external factors of ambient temperature, humidity and air movement, affecting skin blood flow. The operation of the model is discussed and its structural details are given.

  14. Field performance of a premium heating oil

    SciTech Connect

    Santa, T.; Jetter, S.

    1997-01-01

    As part of ongoing research to provide quality improvements to heating oil, Mobil Oil together with Santa Fuel conducted a field trial to investigate the performance of a new premium heating oil. This premium heating oil contains an additive system designed to minimize sludge related problems in the fuel delivery system of residential home heating systems. The additive used was similar to others reported at this and earlier BNL conferences, but was further developed to enhance its performance in oil heat systems. The premium heating oil was bulk additized and delivered to a subset of the customer base. The performance of this premium heating oil is discussed.

  15. Statistical validation of event predictors: A comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Feldwisch-Drentrup, Hinnerk; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Bjoern

    2011-06-15

    The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.

  16. Analysis of factors that predict clinical performance in medical school.

    PubMed

    White, Casey B; Dey, Eric L; Fantone, Joseph C

    2009-10-01

    Academic achievement indices including GPAs and MCAT scores are used to predict the spectrum of medical student academic performance types. However, use of these measures ignores two changes influencing medical school admissions: student diversity and affirmative action, and an increased focus on communication skills. To determine if GPA and MCAT predict performance in medical school consistently across students, and whether either predicts clinical performance in clerkships. A path model was developed to examine relationships among indices of medical student performance during the first three years of medical school for five cohorts of medical students. A structural equation approach was used to calculate the coefficients hypothesized in the model for majority and minority students. Significant differences between majority and minority students were observed. MCAT scores, for example, did not predict performance of minority students in the first year of medical school but did predict performance of majority students. This information may be of use to medical school admissions and resident selection committees. PMID:18030590

  17. Challenges of Student Selection: Predicting Academic Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Merwe, D.; de Beer, M.

    2006-01-01

    Finding accurate predictors of tertiary academic performance, specifically for disadvantaged students, is essential because of budget constraints and the need of the labour market to address employment equity. Increased retention, throughput and decreased dropout rates are vital. When making admission decisions, the under preparedness of students…

  18. Predicting ICME Magnetic Fields with a Numerical Flux Rope Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.

    2014-12-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a dramatic manifestation of solar activity that release vast amounts of plasma into the heliosphere, and have many effects on the interplanetary medium and on planetary atmospheres, and are the major driver of space weather. CMEs occur with the formation and expulsion of large-scale flux ropes from the solar corona, which are routinely observed in interplanetary space. Simulating and predicting the structure and dynamics of these ICME magnetic fields is essential to the progress of heliospheric science and space weather prediction. We combine observations made by different observing techniques of CME events to develop a numerical model capable of predicting the magnetic field of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMES). Photospheric magnetic field measurements from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI are used to specify a coronal magnetic flux rope that drives the CMEs. We examine halo CMEs events that produced clearly observed magnetic clouds at Earth and present our model predictions of these events with an emphasis placed on the z component of the magnetic field. Comparison of the MHD model predictions with coronagraph observations and in-situ data allow us to robustly determine the parameters that define the initial state of the driving flux rope, thus providing a predictive model.

  19. Third Graders' Performance Predictions: Calibration Deflections and Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ots, Aivar

    2013-01-01

    This study focuses on third grade pupils' (9 to 10 years old) ability to predict their performance in a given task and on the correspondence between the accuracy and adequacy of the predictions on the one hand, and the academic achievement on the other. The study involved 713 pupils from 29 Estonian schools. The pupils' performance predictions…

  20. Does finger sense predict addition performance?

    PubMed

    Newman, Sharlene D

    2016-05-01

    The impact of fingers on numerical and mathematical cognition has received a great deal of attention recently. However, the precise role that fingers play in numerical cognition is unknown. The current study explores the relationship between finger sense, arithmetic and general cognitive ability. Seventy-six children between the ages of 5 and 12 participated in the study. The results of stepwise multiple regression analyses demonstrated that while general cognitive ability including language processing was a predictor of addition performance, finger sense was not. The impact of age on the relationship between finger sense, and addition was further examined. The participants were separated into two groups based on age. The results showed that finger gnosia score impacted addition performance in the older group but not the younger group. These results appear to support the hypothesis that fingers provide a scaffold for calculation and that if that scaffold is not properly built, it has continued differential consequences to mathematical cognition. PMID:26993292

  1. Performance evaluation of infrared imaging system in field test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chensheng; Guo, Xiaodong; Ren, Tingting; Zhang, Zhi-jie

    2014-11-01

    Infrared imaging system has been applied widely in both military and civilian fields. Since the infrared imager has various types and different parameters, for system manufacturers and customers, there is great demand for evaluating the performance of IR imaging systems with a standard tool or platform. Since the first generation IR imager was developed, the standard method to assess the performance has been the MRTD or related improved methods which are not perfect adaptable for current linear scanning imager or 2D staring imager based on FPA detector. For this problem, this paper describes an evaluation method based on the triangular orientation discrimination metric which is considered as the effective and emerging method to evaluate the synthesis performance of EO system. To realize the evaluation in field test, an experiment instrument is developed. And considering the importance of operational environment, the field test is carried in practical atmospheric environment. The test imagers include panoramic imaging system and staring imaging systems with different optics and detectors parameters (both cooled and uncooled). After showing the instrument and experiment setup, the experiment results are shown. The target range performance is analyzed and discussed. In data analysis part, the article gives the range prediction values obtained from TOD method, MRTD method and practical experiment, and shows the analysis and results discussion. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of this evaluation tool, and it can be taken as a platform to give the uniform performance prediction reference.

  2. Mining Behavior Based Safety Data to Predict Safety Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2010-06-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) operates a behavior based safety program called Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR). This peer-to-peer observation program encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other's work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of conducting these observations is that more serious accidents are prevented from occurring because lower level “at risk” behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted “unsafe” behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. Although the approach increases employee involvement in safety, the premise of the program has not been subject to sufficient empirical evaluation. The INL now has a significant amount of SOAR data on these lower level “at risk” behaviors. This paper describes the use of data mining techniques to analyze these data to determine whether they can predict if and when a more serious accident will occur.

  3. Predicting performance of annual safety outcomes.

    PubMed

    Guria, J; Mara, K

    2001-05-01

    A control chart system was developed in an earlier paper to identify the occurrence of actual risk changes or deviation from the expected levels of road crash fatalities during the course of a year. This paper discusses the development of a prediction method for estimating number of fatalities during a year. The method then provides a mechanism for estimating the likelihood of meeting a pre-set target or any other outcome. At any point of time in a year, the attainability of a target for the year, depends not only on safety outcomes during the remainder of the year but also on outcomes up to that point in the year. High week to week variability would indicate that it can be difficult to achieve the intended maximum goal. The control charts developed earlier, indicate if the current trend differs from the expected trend or that required to achieve the target. This paper determines the probability of achieving the target given the past outcomes of the year. It also determines the level of outcome for the year based on the past trend and in the absence of any special programmes. The paper discusses the New Zealand application as an example. PMID:11235800

  4. Driving and Low Vision: Validity of Assessments for Predicting Performance of Drivers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strong, J. Graham; Jutai, Jeffrey W.; Russell-Minda, Elizabeth; Evans, Mal

    2008-01-01

    The authors conducted a systematic review to examine whether vision-related assessments can predict the driving performance of individuals who have low vision. The results indicate that measures of visual field, contrast sensitivity, cognitive and attention-based tests, and driver screening tools have variable utility for predicting real-world…

  5. Rotary atomizers - Performance understanding and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, S.; Belcher, D. W.; Crosby, E. J.

    The general design features of commercial rotary atomizers used in the chemical process industries are reviewed relative to application and performance requirements. Desired knowledge about atomizer design and spray-cloud characteristics are summarized and compared to available information. The status of understanding based on analysis and experimentation is surveyed. Generally unconsidered aspects of flow within the atomizer body, disengagement from the atomizer periphery, spray cloud configuration, degree of atomization and feedstock properties are discussed. Certain phenomena related to the atomization of multiphase feedstocks are noted.

  6. Law school performance predicted by explanatory style.

    PubMed

    Satterfield, J M; Monahan, J; Seligman, M E

    1997-01-01

    The explanatory styles of 387 law students were assessed prior to law school using the Attributional Style Questionnaire (ASQ). Longitudinal performance measures were collected throughout law school and related to each student's initial explanatory style. In contrast to studies with undergraduates, students who made stable, global, and internal attributions for negative events combined with the converse attributions for success (typically called pessimists) outperformed more optimistic students on measures of grade point averages and law journal success. We discuss the limitations of current attributional research methodologies and suggest the prudent and cautious perspective necessary for law or skill-based professions may account for our findings. PMID:9160992

  7. Predicted thermal performance of triple vacuum glazing

    SciTech Connect

    Fang, Yueping; Hyde, Trevor J.; Hewitt, Neil

    2010-12-15

    The simulated triple vacuum glazing (TVG) consists of three 4 mm thick glass panes with two vacuum gaps, with each internal glass surface coated with a low-emittance coating with an emittance of 0.03. The two vacuum gaps are sealed by an indium based sealant and separated by a stainless steel pillar array with a height of 0.12 mm and a pillar diameter of 0.3 mm spaced at 25 mm. The thermal transmission at the centre-of-glazing area of the TVG was predicted to be 0.26 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}. The simulation results show that although the thermal conductivity of solder glass (1 W m{sup -1} K{sup -1}) and indium (83.7 W m{sup -1} K{sup -1}) are very different, the difference in thermal transmission of TVGs resulting from the use of an indium and a solder glass edge seal was 0.01 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}. This is because the edge seal is so thin (0.12 mm), consequently there is a negligible temperature drop across it irrespective of the material that the seal is made from relative to the total temperature difference across the glazing. The results also show that there is a relatively large increase in the overall thermal conductance of glazings without a frame when the width of the indium edge seal is increased. Increasing the rebate depth in a solid wood frame decreased the heat transmission of the TVG. The overall heat transmission of the simulated 0.5 m by 0.5 m TVG was 32.6% greater than that of the 1 m by 1 m TVG, since heat conduction through the edge seal of the small glazing has a larger contribution to the total glazing heat transfer than that of the larger glazing system. (author)

  8. Predicting unit performance by assessing transformational and transactional leadership.

    PubMed

    Bass, Bernard M; Avolio, Bruce J; Jung, Dong I; Berson, Yair

    2003-04-01

    How do leadership ratings collected from units operating under stable conditions predict subsequent performance of those units operating under high stress and uncertainty? To examine this question, the authors calculated the predictive relationships for the transformational and transactional leadership of 72 light infantry rifle platoon leaders for ratings of unit potency, cohesion, and performance for U.S. Army platoons participating in combat simulation exercises. Both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership ratings of platoon leaders and sergeants positively predicted unit performance. The relationship of platoon leadership to performance was partially mediated through the unit's level of potency and cohesion. Implications, limitations, and future directions for leadership research are discussed. PMID:12731705

  9. Cruise performance and range prediction reconsidered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torenbeek, Egbert

    1997-05-01

    A unified analytical treatment of the cruise performance of subsonic transport aircraft is derived, valid for gas turbine powerplant installations: turboprop, turbojet and turbofan powered aircraft. Different from the classical treatment the present article deals with compressibility effects on the aerodynamic characteristics. Analytical criteria are derived for optimum cruise lift coefficient and Mach number, with and without constraints on the altitude and engine rating. A simple alternative to the Bréguet range equation is presented which applies to several practical cruising flight techniques: flight at constant altitude and Mach number and stepped cruise/climb. A practical non-iterative procedure for computing mission and reserve fuel loads in the preliminary design stage is proposed.

  10. Does IQ Really Predict Job Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Richardson, Ken; Norgate, Sarah H.

    2015-01-01

    IQ has played a prominent part in developmental and adult psychology for decades. In the absence of a clear theoretical model of internal cognitive functions, however, construct validity for IQ tests has always been difficult to establish. Test validity, therefore, has always been indirect, by correlating individual differences in test scores with what are assumed to be other criteria of intelligence. Job performance has, for several reasons, been one such criterion. Correlations of around 0.5 have been regularly cited as evidence of test validity, and as justification for the use of the tests in developmental studies, in educational and occupational selection and in research programs on sources of individual differences. Here, those correlations are examined together with the quality of the original data and the many corrections needed to arrive at them. It is concluded that considerable caution needs to be exercised in citing such correlations for test validation purposes. PMID:26405429

  11. Reliable predictions of waste performance in a geologic repository

    SciTech Connect

    Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

    1985-08-01

    Establishing reliable estimates of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis upon valid theories to predict performance. Predicting rates that radionuclides are released from waste packages cannot rest upon empirical extrapolations of laboratory leach data. Reliable predictions can be based on simple bounding theoretical models, such as solubility-limited bulk-flow, if the assumed parameters are reliably known or defensibly conservative. Wherever possible, performance analysis should proceed beyond simple bounding calculations to obtain more realistic - and usually more favorable - estimates of expected performance. Desire for greater realism must be balanced against increasing uncertainties in prediction and loss of reliability. Theoretical predictions of release rate based on mass-transfer analysis are bounding and the theory can be verified. Postulated repository analogues to simulate laboratory leach experiments introduce arbitrary and fictitious repository parameters and are shown not to agree with well-established theory. 34 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. Performance Reports: Mirror alignment system performance prediction comparison between SAO and EKC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tananbaum, H. D.; Zhang, J. P.

    1994-01-01

    The objective of this study is to perform an independent analysis of the residual high resolution mirror assembly (HRMA) mirror distortions caused by force and moment errors in the mirror alignment system (MAS) to statistically predict the HRMA performance. These performance predictions are then compared with those performed by Kodak to verify their analysis results.

  13. Evaluation of Turbulence Models Performance in Predicting Incipient Cavitation in an Enlarged Step-Nozzle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naseri, H.; Koukouvinis, P.; Gavaises, M.

    2015-12-01

    Predictive capability of RANS and LES models to calculate incipient cavitation of water in a step nozzle is assessed. The RANS models namely, Realizable k-ε, SST k-ω and Reynolds Stress Model did not predict any cavitation, due to the limitation of RANS models to predict the low pressure vortex cores. LES WALE model was able to predict the cavitation by capturing the shear layer instability and vortex shedding. The performance of a barotropic cavitation model and Rayleigh-Plesset-based cavitation models was compared using WALE model. Although the phase change formulation is different in these models, the predicted cavitation and flow field were not significantly different.

  14. Predictions and experiments of the VAWT viscous flow field. [Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

    SciTech Connect

    Paraschivoiu, I.; Rajagopalan, R.G.; Masson, C.

    1987-06-01

    The first objective of the work was to compare the aerodynamic loads and performance predicted by the double-multiple-streamtube model with the viscous-flow-field analysis of a vertical-axis wind turbine. Second, to check the validity of the two performance/load models, their predictions were compared with available experimental data. When the dynamic effects at low tip-speed ratios (dynamic stall) and added mass and circulatory effects at high tip-speed ratios were included, significant improvement was obtained in the prediction of the aerodynamic characteristics of the turbine, such as induced velocities and instantaneous blade forces. 11 references.

  15. Technique for Predicting the RF Field Strength Inside an Enclosure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hallett, M.; Reddell, J.

    1998-01-01

    This Memorandum presents a simple analytical technique for predicting the RF electric field strength inside an enclosed volume in which radio frequency radiation occurs. The technique was developed to predict the radio frequency (RF) field strength within a launch vehicle's fairing from payloads launched with their telemetry transmitters radiating and to the impact of the radiation on the vehicle and payload. The RF field strength is shown to be a function of the surface materials and surface areas. The method accounts for RF energy losses within exposed surfaces, through RF windows, and within multiple layers of dielectric materials which may cover the surfaces. This Memorandum includes the rigorous derivation of all equations and presents examples and data to support the validity of the technique.

  16. Prediction of Student Performance Through Pretesting in Food and Nutrition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carruth, Betty Ruth; Lamb, Mina W.

    1971-01-01

    Attempts to develop an objective pretest for identifying students' levels of knowledge in food and nutrition prior to class instruction and for predicting student performance on the final examination. (Editor/MU)

  17. Predicting Test Performance: A Content Valid Approach to Screening Applicants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pannone, Ronald D.

    1984-01-01

    Examined the validity of a rationally developed biographical questionnaire for predicting content valid test performance for electrician applicants (N=221). Results showed that the utility of the questionnaire in screening applicant populations was both statistically and practically significant. (LLL)

  18. An Activity for Predicting Performances in the 1984 Summer Olympics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henningsen, Jacqueline

    1984-01-01

    Techniques that students can use to make predictions about performances in the Olympics include point estimation. This is used to estimate a single value using a set of data. A worksheet for students is included. (MNS)

  19. An Approach to Performance Prediction for Parallel Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Ipek, E; de Supinski, B R; Schulz, M; McKee, S A

    2005-05-17

    Accurately modeling and predicting performance for large-scale applications becomes increasingly difficult as system complexity scales dramatically. Analytic predictive models are useful, but are difficult to construct, usually limited in scope, and often fail to capture subtle interactions between architecture and software. In contrast, we employ multilayer neural networks trained on input data from executions on the target platform. This approach is useful for predicting many aspects of performance, and it captures full system complexity. Our models are developed automatically from the training input set, avoiding the difficult and potentially error-prone process required to develop analytic models. This study focuses on the high-performance, parallel application SMG2000, a much studied code whose variations in execution times are still not well understood. Our model predicts performance on two large-scale parallel platforms within 5%-7% error across a large, multi-dimensional parameter space.

  20. Well performance graph simplifies field calculations

    SciTech Connect

    De Ghetto, G.

    1987-05-01

    Graphic Methods are widely employed in order to understand overall well behavior using only surface parameters. The authors propose a new graphic method, used successfully by Agip for oil and gas wells in Italy, Libya, Nigeria and Tunisia. The well performance graph helps solve many production problems, including estimation of: inflow performance relationship; causes of rate decline throughout well life; and production rate and bottomhole flowing pressure for various pressures upstream of the surface choke, and vice-versa. This method differs from others by using flow behavior through the choke for both critical and subcritical conditions. Equations describing flow through the formation, string and surface choke are also used. Results are quite reliable when these theoretical equations are calibrated with field data, either from the well concerned or from nearby wells producing the same fluid. This article describes the technique as it applies to oil wells. The methodology for gas wells is similar.

  1. Predicted NETD performance of a polarized infrared imaging sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preece, Bradley; Hodgkin, Van A.; Thompson, Roger; Leonard, Kevin; Krapels, Keith

    2014-05-01

    Polarization filters are commonly used as a means of increasing the contrast of a scene thereby increasing sensor range performance. The change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is a function of the polarization of the target and background, the type and orientation of the polarization filter(s), and the overall transparency of the filter. However, in the mid-wave and longwave infrared bands (MWIR and LWIR), the noise equivalent temperature difference (NETD), which directly affects the SNR, is a function of the filter's re-emission and its reflected temperature radiance. This paper presents a model, by means of a Stokes vector input, that can be incorporated into the Night Vision Integrated Performance Model (NV-IPM) in order to predict the change in SNR, NETD, and noise equivalent irradiance (NEI) for infrared polarimeter imaging systems. The model is then used to conduct a SNR trade study, using a modeled Stokes vector input, for a notional system looking at a reference target. Future laboratory and field measurements conducted at Night Vision Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) will be used to update, validate, and mature the model of conventional infrared systems equipped with polarization filters.

  2. A non-geometrically similar model for predicting the wake field of full-scale ships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Chunyu; Zhang, Qi; Shen, Yu

    2015-07-01

    The scale effect leads to large discrepancies between the wake fields of model-scale and actual ships, and causes differences in cavitation performance and exciting forces tests in predicting the performance of actual ships. Therefore, when test data from ship models are directly applied to predict the performance of actual ships, test results must be subjected to empirical corrections. This study proposes a method for the reverse design of the hull model. Compared to a geometrically similar hull model, the wake field generated by the modified model is closer to that of an actual ship. A non- geometrically similar model of a Korean Research Institute of Ship and Ocean Engineering (KRISO)'s container ship (KCS) was designed. Numerical simulations were performed using this model, and its results were compared with full-scale calculation results. The deformation method of getting the wake field of full-scale ships by the non-geometrically similar model is applied to the KCS successfully.

  3. COMPASS: A Framework for Automated Performance Modeling and Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Seyong; Meredith, Jeremy S; Vetter, Jeffrey S

    2015-01-01

    Flexible, accurate performance predictions offer numerous benefits such as gaining insight into and optimizing applications and architectures. However, the development and evaluation of such performance predictions has been a major research challenge, due to the architectural complexities. To address this challenge, we have designed and implemented a prototype system, named COMPASS, for automated performance model generation and prediction. COMPASS generates a structured performance model from the target application's source code using automated static analysis, and then, it evaluates this model using various performance prediction techniques. As we demonstrate on several applications, the results of these predictions can be used for a variety of purposes, such as design space exploration, identifying performance tradeoffs for applications, and understanding sensitivities of important parameters. COMPASS can generate these predictions across several types of applications from traditional, sequential CPU applications to GPU-based, heterogeneous, parallel applications. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates a maximum overhead of 4%, flexibility to generate models for 9 applications, speed, ease of creation, and very low relative errors across a diverse set of architectures.

  4. Dual-stroke heat pump field performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veyo, S. E.

    1984-11-01

    Two nearly identical proprototype systems, each employing a unique dual-stroke compressor, were built and tested. One was installed in an occupied residence in Jeannette, Pa. It has provided the heating and cooling required from that time to the present. The system has functioned without failure of any prototypical advanced components, although early field experience did suffer from deficiencies in the software for the breadboard micro processor control system. Analysis of field performance data indicates a heating performance factor (HSPF) of 8.13 Stu/Wa, and a cooling energy efficiency (SEER) of 8.35 Scu/Wh. Data indicate that the beat pump is oversized for the test house since the observed lower balance point is 3 F whereas 17 F La optimum. Oversizing coupled with the use of resistance heat ot maintain delivered air temperature warmer than 90 F results in the consumption of more resistance heat than expected, more unit cycling, and therefore lower than expected energy efficiency. Our analysis indicates that with optimal mixing the dual stroke heat pump will yield as HSFF 30% better than a single capacity heat pump representative of high efficiency units in the market place today for the observed weather profile.

  5. The joint effects of personality and workplace social exchange relationships in predicting task performance and citizenship performance.

    PubMed

    Kamdar, Dishan; Van Dyne, Linn

    2007-09-01

    This field study examines the joint effects of social exchange relationships at work (leader-member exchange and team-member exchange) and employee personality (conscientiousness and agreeableness) in predicting task performance and citizenship performance. Consistent with trait activation theory, matched data on 230 employees, their coworkers, and their supervisors demonstrated interactions in which high quality social exchange relationships weakened the positive relationships between personality and performance. Results demonstrate the benefits of consonant predictions in which predictors and outcomes are matched on the basis of specific targets. We discuss theoretical and practical implications. PMID:17845086

  6. Predicting dynamic performance limits for servosystems with saturating nonlinearities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Webb, J. A., Jr.; Blech, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized treatment for a system with a single saturating nonlinearity is presented and compared with frequency response plots obtained from an analog model of the system. Once the amplitude dynamics are predicted with the limit lines, an iterative technique is employed to determine the system phase response. The saturation limit line technique is used in conjunction with velocity and acceleration limits to predict the performance of an electro-hydraulic servosystem containing a single-stage servovalve. Good agreement was obtained between predicted performance and experimental data.

  7. PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR INTEGRALS OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELDS.

    PubMed

    De Oliveira, Victor; Kone, Bazoumana

    2015-03-01

    Methodology is proposed for the construction of prediction intervals for integrals of Gaussian random fields over bounded regions (called block averages in the geostatistical literature) based on observations at a finite set of sampling locations. Two bootstrap calibration algorithms are proposed, termed indirect and direct, aimed at improving upon plug-in prediction intervals in terms of coverage probability. A simulation study is carried out that illustrates the effectiveness of both procedures, and these procedures are applied to estimate block averages of chromium traces in a potentially contaminated region in Switzerland. PMID:25431507

  8. PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR INTEGRALS OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELDS

    PubMed Central

    De Oliveira, Victor; Kone, Bazoumana

    2014-01-01

    Methodology is proposed for the construction of prediction intervals for integrals of Gaussian random fields over bounded regions (called block averages in the geostatistical literature) based on observations at a finite set of sampling locations. Two bootstrap calibration algorithms are proposed, termed indirect and direct, aimed at improving upon plug-in prediction intervals in terms of coverage probability. A simulation study is carried out that illustrates the effectiveness of both procedures, and these procedures are applied to estimate block averages of chromium traces in a potentially contaminated region in Switzerland. PMID:25431507

  9. Predicting the performance and innovativeness of scientists and engineers.

    PubMed

    Keller, Robert T

    2012-01-01

    A study of 644 scientists and engineers from 5 corporate research and development organizations investigated hypotheses generated from an interactionist framework of 4 individual characteristics as longitudinal predictors of performance and innovativeness. An innovative orientation predicted 1-year-later and 5-years-later supervisory job performance ratings and 5-years-later counts of patents and publications. An internal locus of control predicted 5-years-later patents and publications, and self-esteem predicted performance ratings for both times and patents. Team-level nonroutine tasks moderated the individual-level relationships between an innovative orientation and performance ratings and patents such that the relationships were stronger in a nonroutine task environment. Implications for an interactionist framework of performance and innovativeness for knowledge workers are discussed. PMID:21875172

  10. FRONTIER FIELDS: HIGH-REDSHIFT PREDICTIONS AND EARLY RESULTS

    SciTech Connect

    Coe, Dan; Bradley, Larry; Zitrin, Adi

    2015-02-20

    The Frontier Fields program is obtaining deep Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope images of new ''blank'' fields and nearby fields gravitationally lensed by massive galaxy clusters. The Hubble images of the lensed fields are revealing nJy sources (AB mag > 31), the faintest galaxies yet observed. The full program will transform our understanding of galaxy evolution in the first 600 million years (z > 9). Previous programs have yielded a dozen or so z > 9 candidates, including perhaps fewer than expected in the Ultra Deep Field and more than expected in shallower Hubble images. In this paper, we present high-redshift (z > 6) number count predictions for the Frontier Fields and candidates in three of the first Hubble images. We show the full Frontier Fields program may yield up to ∼70 z > 9 candidates (∼6 per field). We base this estimate on an extrapolation of luminosity functions observed between 4 < z < 8 and gravitational lensing models submitted by the community. However, in the first two deep infrared Hubble images obtained to date, we find z ∼ 8 candidates but no strong candidates at z > 9. We defer quantitative analysis of the z > 9 deficit (including detection completeness estimates) to future work including additional data. At these redshifts, cosmic variance (field-to-field variation) is expected to be significant (greater than ±50%) and include clustering of early galaxies formed in overdensities. The full Frontier Fields program will significantly mitigate this uncertainty by observing six independent sightlines each with a lensing cluster and nearby blank field.

  11. Auditory performance in an open sound field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fluitt, Kim F.; Letowski, Tomasz; Mermagen, Timothy

    2003-04-01

    Detection and recognition of acoustic sources in an open field are important elements of situational awareness on the battlefield. They are affected by many technical and environmental conditions such as type of sound, distance to a sound source, terrain configuration, meteorological conditions, hearing capabilities of the listener, level of background noise, and the listener's familiarity with the sound source. A limited body of knowledge about auditory perception of sources located over long distances makes it difficult to develop models predicting auditory behavior on the battlefield. The purpose of the present study was to determine the listener's abilities to detect, recognize, localize, and estimate distances to sound sources from 25 to 800 m from the listing position. Data were also collected for meteorological conditions (wind direction and strength, temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity) and background noise level for each experimental trial. Forty subjects (men and women, ages 18 to 25) participated in the study. Nine types of sounds were presented from six loudspeakers in random order; each series was presented four times. Partial results indicate that both detection and recognition declined at distances greater than approximately 200 m and distance estimation was grossly underestimated by listeners. Specific results will be presented.

  12. Deciphering and prediction of plant dynamics under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Izawa, Takeshi

    2015-04-01

    Elucidation of plant dynamics under fluctuating natural environments is a challenging goal in plant physiology. Recently, using a computer statistics integrating a series of transcriptome data of field-grown rice leaves during an entire crop season and several corresponding environmental data such as solar radiation and ambient temperature, most parts of transcriptome have been modeled. This reveals the detailed contributions of developmental timing, circadian clocks and each environmental factor to transcriptome dynamics in the field and can predict transcriptome dynamics under given environments. Furthermore, some traits such as flowering time in natural environments have been shown to be predicted by mathematical models based on gene-networks parameterized with data obtained in the laboratory, and phenology models refined by knowledge of molecular genetics. New molecular physiology is beginning in plant science. PMID:25706440

  13. Prediction of Gymnastic Performance from Arousal and Anxiety Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Basler, Marilyn L.; And Others

    This study predicts gymnastic performance, arousal, and anxiety measures from past performances. Pulse rate and the Palmar Sweat Index were utilized as indicants of arousal. Anxiety was assessed by means of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Eighteen members of the Ithaca College women's varsity gymnastic team were tested throughout the 1973-74…

  14. Evaluation of abutment scour prediction equations with field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benedict, S.T.; Deshpande, N.; Aziz, N.M.

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with FHWA, compared predicted abutment scour depths, computed with selected predictive equations, with field observations collected at 144 bridges in South Carolina and at eight bridges from the National Bridge Scour Database. Predictive equations published in the 4th edition of Evaluating Scour at Bridges (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18) were used in this comparison, including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. The comparisons showed that most equations tended to provide conservative estimates of scour that at times were excessive (as large as 158 ft). Equations also produced underpredictions of scour, but with less frequency. Although the equations provide an important resource for evaluating abutment scour at bridges, the results of this investigation show the importance of using engineering judgment in conjunction with these equations.

  15. Predicting Course Performance in Freshman and Sophomore Physics Courses: Women Are More Predictable than Men.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCammon, Susan; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Investigates the extent to which thinking skills and mathematical competency would predict the course performance of freshman and sophomore science majors enrolled in physics courses. Finds that algebra ability and critical thinking skills were the best predictors. (Author/YP)

  16. Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2002-01-01

    A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

  17. Reading performance is predicted by more than phonological processing

    PubMed Central

    Kibby, Michelle Y.; Lee, Sylvia E.; Dyer, Sarah M.

    2014-01-01

    We compared three phonological processing components (phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming and phonological memory), verbal working memory, and attention control in terms of how well they predict the various aspects of reading: word recognition, pseudoword decoding, fluency and comprehension, in a mixed sample of 182 children ages 8–12 years. Participants displayed a wide range of reading ability and attention control. Multiple regression was used to determine how well the phonological processing components, verbal working memory, and attention control predict reading performance. All equations were highly significant. Phonological memory predicted word identification and decoding. In addition, phonological awareness and rapid automatized naming predicted every aspect of reading assessed, supporting the notion that phonological processing is a core contributor to reading ability. Nonetheless, phonological processing was not the only predictor of reading performance. Verbal working memory predicted fluency, decoding and comprehension, and attention control predicted fluency. Based upon our results, when using Baddeley’s model of working memory it appears that the phonological loop contributes to basic reading ability, whereas the central executive contributes to fluency and comprehension, along with decoding. Attention control was of interest as some children with ADHD have poor reading ability even if it is not sufficiently impaired to warrant diagnosis. Our finding that attention control predicts reading fluency is consistent with prior research which showed sustained attention plays a role in fluency. Taken together, our results suggest that reading is a highly complex skill that entails more than phonological processing to perform well. PMID:25285081

  18. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

    DOE PAGESBeta

    King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

    2016-04-13

    Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

  19. Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Sheng; Peng, Jian; Ma, Jianzhu; Xu, Jinbo

    2016-01-01

    Protein secondary structure (SS) prediction is important for studying protein structure and function. When only the sequence (profile) information is used as input feature, currently the best predictors can obtain ~80% Q3 accuracy, which has not been improved in the past decade. Here we present DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields) for protein SS prediction. DeepCNF is a Deep Learning extension of Conditional Neural Fields (CNF), which is an integration of Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and shallow neural networks. DeepCNF can model not only complex sequence-structure relationship by a deep hierarchical architecture, but also interdependency between adjacent SS labels, so it is much more powerful than CNF. Experimental results show that DeepCNF can obtain ~84% Q3 accuracy, ~85% SOV score, and ~72% Q8 accuracy, respectively, on the CASP and CAMEO test proteins, greatly outperforming currently popular predictors. As a general framework, DeepCNF can be used to predict other protein structure properties such as contact number, disorder regions, and solvent accessibility.

  20. Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Fields.

    PubMed

    Wang, Sheng; Peng, Jian; Ma, Jianzhu; Xu, Jinbo

    2016-01-01

    Protein secondary structure (SS) prediction is important for studying protein structure and function. When only the sequence (profile) information is used as input feature, currently the best predictors can obtain ~80% Q3 accuracy, which has not been improved in the past decade. Here we present DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields) for protein SS prediction. DeepCNF is a Deep Learning extension of Conditional Neural Fields (CNF), which is an integration of Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and shallow neural networks. DeepCNF can model not only complex sequence-structure relationship by a deep hierarchical architecture, but also interdependency between adjacent SS labels, so it is much more powerful than CNF. Experimental results show that DeepCNF can obtain ~84% Q3 accuracy, ~85% SOV score, and ~72% Q8 accuracy, respectively, on the CASP and CAMEO test proteins, greatly outperforming currently popular predictors. As a general framework, DeepCNF can be used to predict other protein structure properties such as contact number, disorder regions, and solvent accessibility. PMID:26752681

  1. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks. PMID:26190229

  2. Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Fields

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Sheng; Peng, Jian; Ma, Jianzhu; Xu, Jinbo

    2016-01-01

    Protein secondary structure (SS) prediction is important for studying protein structure and function. When only the sequence (profile) information is used as input feature, currently the best predictors can obtain ~80% Q3 accuracy, which has not been improved in the past decade. Here we present DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields) for protein SS prediction. DeepCNF is a Deep Learning extension of Conditional Neural Fields (CNF), which is an integration of Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and shallow neural networks. DeepCNF can model not only complex sequence-structure relationship by a deep hierarchical architecture, but also interdependency between adjacent SS labels, so it is much more powerful than CNF. Experimental results show that DeepCNF can obtain ~84% Q3 accuracy, ~85% SOV score, and ~72% Q8 accuracy, respectively, on the CASP and CAMEO test proteins, greatly outperforming currently popular predictors. As a general framework, DeepCNF can be used to predict other protein structure properties such as contact number, disorder regions, and solvent accessibility. PMID:26752681

  3. Field performance of a premium heating oil

    SciTech Connect

    Santa, T.; Jetter, S.M.

    1996-07-01

    As part of our ongoing research to provide quality improvements to heating oil, Mobil Oil together with Santa Fuel, Inc., conducted a field trial to investigate the performance of a new premium heating oil. This premium heating oil contains an additive system designed to minimize sludge related problems in the fuel delivery system of residential home heating systems. The additive used was similar to others reported at this and earlier BNL conferences, but was further developed to enhance its performance in oil heat systems. The premium heating oil was bulk additized and delivered to a subset of the customer base. Fuel related, unscheduled service calls were monitored in this test area, as well as in a similar baseline area that did not receive the premium heating oil. Overall, the premium fuel provided a 45% reduction in the occurrence of fuel related, unscheduled service calls as compared to the baseline area. Within this population, there was a reduction of 38% in systems with 275 gallon tanks, and 55% in systems that had >275 gallon tanks showing that the additive is effective in the various configurations of residential oil heat systems. In addition, photographic documentation collected at two accounts supported this improvement by clearly showing that the equipment remained cleaner with the premium heating oil than with regular heating oil. Based on these results, a full marketing trial of this new product has been initiated by Mobil and Santa Fuel, Inc., during the 1995-1996 heating season.

  4. Recent progress towards predicting aircraft ground handling performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, T. J.; White, E. J.

    1981-01-01

    Capability implemented in simulating aircraft ground handling performance is reviewed and areas for further expansion and improvement are identified. Problems associated with providing necessary simulator input data for adequate modeling of aircraft tire/runway friction behavior are discussed and efforts to improve tire/runway friction definition, and simulator fidelity are described. Aircraft braking performance data obtained on several wet runway surfaces are compared to ground vehicle friction measurements. Research to improve methods of predicting tire friction performance are discussed.

  5. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  6. On the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgess, C. P.; Patil, Subodh P.; Trott, Michael

    2014-06-01

    We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for A S , r and n s are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in principle) for a slightly larger range of Higgs masses. We comment on the origin of the various UV scales that arise at large field values for the SM Higgs, clarifying cut off scale arguments by further developing the formalism of a non-linear realization of SU L (2) × U(1) in curved space. We discuss the interesting fact that, outside of Higgs Inflation, the effect of a non-minimal coupling to gravity, even in the SM, results in a non-linear EFT for the Higgs sector. Finally, we briefly comment on post BICEP2 attempts to modify the Higgs Inflation scenario.

  7. Tailor-made force fields for crystal-structure prediction.

    PubMed

    Neumann, Marcus A

    2008-08-14

    A general procedure is presented to derive a complete set of force-field parameters for flexible molecules in the crystalline state on a case-by-case basis. The force-field parameters are fitted to the electrostatic potential as well as to accurate energies and forces generated by means of a hybrid method that combines solid-state density functional theory (DFT) calculations with an empirical van der Waals correction. All DFT calculations are carried out with the VASP program. The mathematical structure of the force field, the generation of reference data, the choice of the figure of merit, the optimization algorithm, and the parameter-refinement strategy are discussed in detail. The approach is applied to cyclohexane-1,4-dione, a small flexible ring. The tailor-made force field obtained for cyclohexane-1,4-dione is used to search for low-energy crystal packings in all 230 space groups with one molecule per asymmetric unit, and the most stable crystal structures are reoptimized in a second step with the hybrid method. The experimental crystal structure is found as the most stable predicted crystal structure both with the tailor-made force field and the hybrid method. The same methodology has also been applied successfully to the four compounds of the fourth CCDC blind test on crystal-structure prediction. For the five aforementioned compounds, the root-mean-square deviations between lattice energies calculated with the tailor-made force fields and the hybrid method range from 0.024 to 0.053 kcal/mol per atom around an average value of 0.034 kcal/mol per atom. PMID:18642947

  8. Proactive supply chain performance management with predictive analytics.

    PubMed

    Stefanovic, Nenad

    2014-01-01

    Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment. PMID:25386605

  9. Proactive Supply Chain Performance Management with Predictive Analytics

    PubMed Central

    Stefanovic, Nenad

    2014-01-01

    Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment. PMID:25386605

  10. TAS: A Transonic Aircraft/Store flow field prediction code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, D. S.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical procedure has been developed that has the capability to predict the transonic flow field around an aircraft with an arbitrarily located, separated store. The TAS code, the product of a joint General Dynamics/NASA ARC/AFWAL research and development program, will serve as the basis for a comprehensive predictive method for aircraft with arbitrary store loadings. This report described the numerical procedures employed to simulate the flow field around a configuration of this type. The validity of TAS code predictions is established by comparison with existing experimental data. In addition, future areas of development of the code are outlined. A brief description of code utilization is also given in the Appendix. The aircraft/store configuration is simulated using a mesh embedding approach. The computational domain is discretized by three meshes: (1) a planform-oriented wing/body fine mesh, (2) a cylindrical store mesh, and (3) a global Cartesian crude mesh. This embedded mesh scheme enables simulation of stores with fins of arbitrary angular orientation.

  11. Field theory and diffusion creep predictions in polycrystalline aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villani, A.; Busso, E. P.; Forest, S.

    2015-07-01

    In polycrystals, stress-driven vacancy diffusion at high homologous temperatures leads to inelastic deformation. In this work, a novel continuum mechanics framework is proposed to describe the strain fields resulting from such a diffusion-driven process in a polycrystalline aggregate where grains and grain boundaries are explicitly considered. The choice of an anisotropic eigenstrain in the grain boundary region provides the driving force for the diffusive creep processes. The corresponding inelastic strain rate is shown to be related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. Dislocation driven deformation is then introduced as an additional mechanism, through standard crystal plasticity constitutive equations. The fully coupled diffusion-mechanical model is implemented into the finite element method and then used to describe the biaxial creep behaviour of FCC polycrystalline aggregates. The corresponding results revealed for the first time that such a coupled diffusion-stress approach, involving the gradient of the vacancy flux, can accurately predict the well-known macroscopic strain rate dependency on stress and grain size in the diffusion creep regime. They also predict strongly heterogeneous viscoplastic strain fields, especially close to grain boundaries triple junctions. Finally, a smooth transition from Herring and Coble to dislocation creep behaviour is predicted and compared to experimental results for copper.

  12. A free wake method for performance prediction of VAWT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilin, S.; Dumitrescu, H.; Cardos, V.; Dumitrache, A.

    2012-09-01

    Based on the lifting line theory and a free vortex wake model, a method including dynamic stall effects is presented for predicting the performance of a three-dimensional vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT). A vortex model is used in which the wake is composed of trailing streamwise and shedding spanwise vortices, whose strengths are equal to the change in the bound vortex strength as dictated by Helmholtz and Kelvin's theorems. Performance parameters are calculated by application of the Biot-Savart law along with the Kutta-Joukowski theorem and a semi-empirical dynamic stall model. Predictions are shown to compare favorably with existing experimental data.

  13. Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

  14. Predicting Poor Physical Performance after Total Knee Arthroplasty

    PubMed Central

    Bade, Michael J; Wolfe, Pamela; Zeni, Joseph A; Stevens-Lapsley, Jennifer E.; Snyder-Mackler, Lynn

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a preliminary decision algorithm predicting functional performance outcomes to aid in the decision of when to undergo total knee arthroplasty (TKA). One hundred nineteen patients undergoing primary unilateral TKA were evaluated before and 6 months after TKA. A regression tree analysis using a recursive partitioning function was performed with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) time, Six-Minute Walk (6MW) distance, and Stair Climbing Test (SCT) time as measured 6 months after TKA as the primary outcomes. Preoperative measures of functional performance, joint performance, anthropometrics, demographics, and self reported status were evaluated as predictors of the primary outcomes 6 months after surgery. Individuals taking ≥ 10.1 seconds on the TUG and aged 72 years or older before surgery had the poorest performance on the TUG 6 months after surgery. Individuals walking < 314 meters on the 6MW before surgery had the poorest performance on the 6MW test 6 months after surgery. Individuals taking ≥ 17 seconds to complete the SCT and scoring < 40 on the SF-36 mental component score before surgery had the poorest performance on the SCT 6 months after surgery. Poorer performance preoperatively on the 6MW, SCT, and TUG, was related to poorer performance in the same measure after TKA. Age and decreased mental health were secondary predictors of poorer performance at 6 months on the TUG and SCT, respectively. These measures may help further develop models predicting thresholds for poor outcomes after TKA. PMID:22539338

  15. Predictive performance of a model of anaesthetic uptake with desflurane.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, R

    2006-04-01

    We have previously shown that a model of anaesthetic uptake and distribution, developed for use as a teaching tool, is able to predict end-tidal isoflurane and sevoflurane concentrations at least as well as commonly used propofol models predict blood levels of propofol. Models with good predictive performance may be useful as part of real-time prediction systems. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of this model with desflurane. Twenty adult patients undergoing routine anaesthesia were studied. The total fresh gas flow and vaporizor settings were collected at 10-second intervals from the anaesthetic machine. These data were used as inputs to the model, which had been initialized for patient weight and desflurane. Output of the model is a predicted end-tidal value at each point in time. These values were compared with measured end-tidal desflurane using a standard statistical technique of Varvel and colleagues. Data was analysed from 19 patients. Median performance error was 78% (95% CI 8-147), median absolute performance error 77% (6-149), divergence 10.6%/h (-80-101) and wobble 8.9% (-6-24). The predictive performance of this model with desflurane was poor, with considerable variability between patients. The reasons for the difference between desflurane and our previous results with isoflurane and sevoflurane are not obvious, but may provide important clues to the necessary components for such models. The data collected in this study may assist in the development and evaluation of improved models. PMID:16617640

  16. The Predictive Performance and Stability of Six Species Distribution Models

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Min-Yi; Fan, Wei-Yi; Wang, Zhi-Gao

    2014-01-01

    Background Predicting species’ potential geographical range by species distribution models (SDMs) is central to understand their ecological requirements. However, the effects of using different modeling techniques need further investigation. In order to improve the prediction effect, we need to assess the predictive performance and stability of different SDMs. Methodology We collected the distribution data of five common tree species (Pinus massoniana, Betula platyphylla, Quercus wutaishanica, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis) and simulated their potential distribution area using 13 environmental variables and six widely used SDMs: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Each model run was repeated 100 times (trials). We compared the predictive performance by testing the consistency between observations and simulated distributions and assessed the stability by the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the 99% confidence interval of Kappa and AUC values. Results The mean values of AUC and Kappa from MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM trials were similar and significantly higher than those from BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05), while the associated standard deviations and coefficients of variation were larger for BIOCLIM and DOMAIN trials (p<0.05), and the 99% confidence intervals for AUC and Kappa values were narrower for MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM. Compared to BIOCLIM and DOMAIN, other SDMs (MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM) had higher prediction accuracy, smaller confidence intervals, and were more stable and less affected by the random variable (randomly selected pseudo-absence points). Conclusions According to the prediction performance and stability of SDMs, we can divide these six SDMs into two categories: a high performance and stability group including MAHAL, RF, MAXENT, and SVM, and a low performance and stability group consisting of BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN. We highlight that choosing appropriate SDMs to address a specific problem is an important

  17. [The quality control based on the predictable performance].

    PubMed

    Zheng, D X

    2016-09-01

    The clinical performance can only be evaluated when it comes to the last step in the conventional way of prosthesis. However, it often causes the failure because of the unconformity between the expectation and final performance. Resulting from this kind of situation, quality control based on the predictable results has been suggested. It is a new idea based on the way of reverse thinking, and focuses on the need of patient and puts the final performance of the prosthesis to the first place. With the prosthodontically driven prodedure, dentists can complete the unification with the expectation and the final performance. PMID:27596338

  18. Near-field noise predictions of an aircraft in cruise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rawls, John W., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The physics of the coupling of sound waves with the boundary layer is not yet well understood. It is believed, however, that for effective coupling of the sound waves and instability waves in the boundary layer, a matching of both frequency and wave number must occur. This requires that the sound field be accurately defined in both space and time. Currently analytical prediction methods lack sufficient accuracy to predict the noise levels from components of a turbofan engine. Although empirical methods do not yield the detail required for an analysis of the receptivity of sound by a boundary layer, valuable insight can be gained as to the changes in noise levels that might be expected under various operating conditions and aircraft configurations.

  19. Predictive Potential Field-Based Collision Avoidance for Multicopters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieuwenhuisen, M.; Schadler, M.; Behnke, S.

    2013-08-01

    Reliable obstacle avoidance is a key to navigating with UAVs in the close vicinity of static and dynamic obstacles. Wheel-based mobile robots are often equipped with 2D or 3D laser range finders that cover the 2D workspace sufficiently accurate and at a high rate. Micro UAV platforms operate in a 3D environment, but the restricted payload prohibits the use of fast state-of-the-art 3D sensors. Thus, perception of small obstacles is often only possible in the vicinity of the UAV and a fast collision avoidance system is necessary. We propose a reactive collision avoidance system based on artificial potential fields, that takes the special dynamics of UAVs into account by predicting the influence of obstacles on the estimated trajectory in the near future using a learned motion model. Experimental evaluation shows that the prediction leads to smoother trajectories and allows to navigate collision-free through passageways.

  20. Key issues influencing the performance of near-field barriers

    SciTech Connect

    Tasker, P.W.; Wisbey, S.J.; Boyle, C.B.

    1993-12-31

    In developing a national strategy for the disposal of radioactive wastes, each country will consider isolation options that are appropriate to the types of waste that are produced. The options are developed in response to specific national regulatory requirements, and thus will focus on different aspects of performance. However, there are a number of technical concerns that are common to all programmes. The major issues concerning the behavior of the chemical and physical barriers in the near field of a radioactive waste repository are discussed in this paper. The description of key issue has been divided into the following categories: barrier design, barrier evolution, scientific understanding through modelling, and validation of performance. The near-field barriers are selected and designed to provide appropriate radionuclide containment and control. Factors affecting the evolution of these barriers, such as container degradation and gas generation, determine the subsequent release of radionuclides to the human environment. Modelling repository evolution is therefore an integral feature of performance assessments, and issues such as the treatment of inhomogeneities and non-equilibrium chemistry may need to be addressed. However, the use of mathematical and computer models implies a requirement for validation. The use of demonstration experiments and natural analogues builds confidence in the predictions of repository performance models, and provides a degree of validation for otherwise inaccessible timescales.

  1. Zonal procedure for predicting the hover performance of a helicopter rotor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulton, Marvin Allyn

    The prediction of the performance of rotorcraft is complicated by the need to simultaneously account for many disparate elements in a single problem. To date, most CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analyses of rotorcraft have been concerned with the computation of the flow on isolated elements-such as the flow on the blade surface. The treatment of realistic configurations requires the development of a methodology which can include a wide range of flow elements-especially, the main rotor and its wake system. This dissertation concerns the development of a new scheme for computing the flow of a complete rotor/wake system and applying this to predict the hover performance of a helicopter rotor. Navier-Stokes solvers are needed for predicting viscous effects, but do not have the ability to compute extensive wake regions without numerical dissipation. On the other hand, a vorticity embedded code can easily handle the wake but cannot predict the surface viscous flow. Therefore, this problem requires a zonal approach. To predict the profile power, a Navier-Stokes analysis is used near the blade surface. To avoid dissipation of the wake, the far field convection scheme is based on a full- potential solver equipped with vorticity embedding. Application of the zonal procedure to predict the hover performance of the Sikorsky UH-60A rotor provides the first evaluation of this method. Performance predictions of the Army AH-64A rotor demonstrate a new ability to predict hovering flows into the stall regime.

  2. Predictive Bias and Sensitivity in NRC Fuel Performance Codes

    SciTech Connect

    Geelhood, Kenneth J.; Luscher, Walter G.; Senor, David J.; Cunningham, Mitchel E.; Lanning, Donald D.; Adkins, Harold E.

    2009-10-01

    The latest versions of the fuel performance codes, FRAPCON-3 and FRAPTRAN were examined to determine if the codes are intrinsically conservative. Each individual model and type of code prediction was examined and compared to the data that was used to develop the model. In addition, a brief literature search was performed to determine if more recent data have become available since the original model development for model comparison.

  3. Prediction of Airplane Sonic-Boom Pressure Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, Harry W.; McLean, F. Edward; Middleton, Wilbur D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a discussion of the sensitivity of supersonic-transport design and operation to sonic-boom considerations and shows the necessity for a study of these problems early in the development program. Methods of predicting pressure signatures are outlined and examples of the correlation of these estimates with wind-tunnel and flight measurements are shown. Estimates of sonic-boom characteristics for a representative supersonic transport show that in the critical transonic acceleration portion of the flight, overpressures somewhat lower than estimated by the use of far-field assumptions may be expected. Promising design possibilities for the achievement of further overpressure reductions are explored.

  4. Predicting waste stabilization pond performance using an ecological simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    New, G.R.

    1987-01-01

    Waste stabilization ponds (lagoons) are often favored in small communities because of their low cost and ease of operation. Most models currently used to predict performance are empirical or fail to address the primary lagoon cell. Empirical methods for predicting lagoon performance have been found to be off as much as 248 percent when used on a system other than the one they were developed for. Also, the present models developed for the primary cell lack the ability to predict parameters other than biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and nitrogen. Oxygen consumption is usually estimated from BOD utilization. LAGOON is a fortran program which models the biogeochemical processes characteristic of the primary cell of facultative lagoons. Model parameters can be measured from lagoons in the vicinity of a proposed lagoon or estimated from laboratory studies. The model was calibrated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah lagoon data then validated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah data.

  5. Internal performance predictions for Langley scramjet engine module

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pinckney, S. Z.

    1978-01-01

    A one dimensional theoretical method for the prediction of the internal performance of a scramjet engine is presented. The effects of changes in vehicle forebody flow parameters and characteristics on predicted thrust for the scramjet engine were evaluated using this method, and results are presented. A theoretical evaluation of the effects of changes in the scramjet engine's internal parameters is also presented. Theoretical internal performance predictions, in terms thrust coefficient and specific impulse, are provided for the scramjet engine for free stream Mach numbers of 5, 6, and 7 free stream dynamic pressure of 23,940 N/sq m forebody surface angles of 4.6 deg to 14.6 deg, and fuel equivalence ratio of 1.0.

  6. Performance prediction for 3D filtering of multichannel images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubel, Oleksii; Kozhemiakin, Ruslan A.; Abramov, Sergey K.; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Vozel, Benoit; Chehdi, Kacem

    2015-10-01

    Performance of denoising based on discrete cosine transform applied to multichannel remote sensing images corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise is analyzed. Images obtained by satellite Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) mission using hyperspectral imager instrument (Hyperion) that have high input SNR are taken as test images. Denoising performance is characterized by improvement of PSNR. For hard-thresholding 3D DCT-based denoising, simple statistics (probabilities to be less than a certain threshold) are used to predict denoising efficiency using curves fitted into scatterplots. It is shown that the obtained curves (approximations) provide prediction of denoising efficiency with high accuracy. Analysis is carried out for different numbers of channels processed jointly. Universality of prediction for different number of channels is proven.

  7. Classification performance prediction using parametric scattering feature models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Hung-Chih; Moses, Randolph L.; Potter, Lee C.

    2000-08-01

    We consider a method for estimating classification performance of a model-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) automatic target recognition system. Target classification is performed by comparing an unordered feature set extracted from a measured SAR image chip with an unordered feature set predicted from a hypothesized target class and pose. A Bayes likelihood metric that incorporates uncertainty in both the predicted and extracted feature vectors is used to compute the match score. Evaluation of the match likelihoods requires a correspondence between the unordered predicted and extracted feature sets. This is a bipartite graph matching problem with insertions and deletions; we show that the optimal match can be found in polynomial time. We extend the results in 1 to estimate classification performance for a ten-class SAR ATR problem. We consider a synthetic classification problem to validate the classifier and to address resolution and robustness questions in the likelihood scoring method. Specifically, we consider performance versus SAR resolution, performance degradation due to mismatch between the assumed and actual feature statistics, and performance impact of correlated feature attributes.

  8. Image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stein, E. K.; Hammill, H. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1976-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. A new technique for image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation was developed. It was entirely objective, quantitative, and general, and should prove useful in system design and quality control. The technique and its application to determination of quality control procedures for the Earth Resources Technology Satellite NASA Data Processing Facility are described.

  9. Prediction of Military Turnover Using Intentions, Satisfaction, and Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knapp, Deirdre J.; And Others

    Although researchers have examined the link between job attitudes and turnover, some studies claim that civilian samples may not be generalizable to military personnel. This paper addresses two central questions: (1) To what extent does job satisfaction, job performance, and reenlistment intentions predict reenlistment behavior?; (2) To what…

  10. Human transfer functions used to predict system performance parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1966-01-01

    Automatic, parameter-tracking, model-matching technique compares the responses of a human operator with those of an analog computer model of a human operator to predict and analyze the performance of mechanical or electromechanical systems prior to construction. Transfer functions represent the input-output relation of an operator controlling a closed-loop system.

  11. Prediction of Nine Month Performance from Neonatal and Developmental Criteria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweet, John F., Jr.; And Others

    This study investigated the ability of the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale (NBAS), in combination with neonatal histories and developmental assessments, to predict mental and motor performance of 9-month-old infants on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID). Fourteen normal, full-term infants and 10 average-for-gestational-age,…

  12. A model for analytical performance prediction of hypervapotron

    SciTech Connect

    Baxi, C.B.; Falter, H.

    1992-07-01

    A hypervapotron is a water-cooled device which combines the advantages of finned surfaces with the large heat transfer rates possible during boiling heat transfer. Hypervapotrons have been used as beam dumps in the past and plans are under way to use them for divertor cooling in the Joint European Torus (JET). Experiments at JET have shows that a surface heat flux of 25 MW/m{sup 2} can be achieved in hypervapotrons. This performance makes such a device very attractive for cooling of divertor of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). This paper presents an analytical method to predict the thermal performance of the hypervapotrons. Preliminary results show an excellent agreement between experimental results and analytical prediction over a wide range of flow velocities, pressures, subcooling temperatures and heat fluxes. This paper also presents the predicted performance of hypervapotron made of materials other than copper. After further development and verification, the analytical method could be used for optimizing designs and performance prediction.

  13. The Role of Means Efficacy When Predicting Creative Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Aneika L.; Payne, Stephanie C.; Pariyothorn, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    According to the "Internal-External Efficacy model", self-efficacy is an insufficient explanation for self-regulated behavior because it ignores the influence of external resources. Applying this theory of motivation to the prediction of creative performance, the extent to which means efficacy or the belief in the utility of external…

  14. Predicting Introductory Programming Performance: A Multi-Institutional Multivariate Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergin, Susan; Reilly, Ronan

    2006-01-01

    A model for predicting student performance on introductory programming modules is presented. The model uses attributes identified in a study carried out at four third-level institutions in the Republic of Ireland. Four instruments were used to collect the data and over 25 attributes were examined. A data reduction technique was applied and a…

  15. Process for predicting structural performance of mechanical systems

    DOEpatents

    Gardner, D.R.; Hendrickson, B.A.; Plimpton, S.J.; Attaway, S.W.; Heinstein, M.W.; Vaughan, C.T.

    1998-05-19

    A process for predicting the structural performance of a mechanical system represents the mechanical system by a plurality of surface elements. The surface elements are grouped according to their location in the volume occupied by the mechanical system so that contacts between surface elements can be efficiently located. The process is well suited for efficient practice on multiprocessor computers. 12 figs.

  16. Analysis of Factors that Predict Clinical Performance in Medical School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Casey B.; Dey, Eric L.; Fantone, Joseph C.

    2009-01-01

    Academic achievement indices including GPAs and MCAT scores are used to predict the spectrum of medical student academic performance types. However, use of these measures ignores two changes influencing medical school admissions: student diversity and affirmative action, and an increased focus on communication skills. To determine if GPA and MCAT…

  17. Process for predicting structural performance of mechanical systems

    DOEpatents

    Gardner, David R.; Hendrickson, Bruce A.; Plimpton, Steven J.; Attaway, Stephen W.; Heinstein, Martin W.; Vaughan, Courtenay T.

    1998-01-01

    A process for predicting the structural performance of a mechanical system represents the mechanical system by a plurality of surface elements. The surface elements are grouped according to their location in the volume occupied by the mechanical system so that contacts between surface elements can be efficiently located. The process is well suited for efficient practice on multiprocessor computers.

  18. Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners’ performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel’s formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design. PMID:27336162

  19. Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners.

    PubMed

    Blythe, Duncan A J; Király, Franz J

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners' performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel's formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design. PMID:27336162

  20. Predicting Subcontractor Performance Using Web-Based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs) to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy Logic (FL), and Neural Networks (NNs). FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism. PMID:23864830

  1. Performance Study and CFD Predictions of a Ducted Fan System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abrego, Anita I.; Chang, I-Chung; Bulaga, Robert W.; Rutkowski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    An experimental investigation was completed in the NASA Ames 7 by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel to study the performance characteristics of a ducted fan. The goal of this effort is to study the effect of ducted fan geometry and utilize Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis to provide a baseline for correlation. A 38-inch diameter, 10-inch chord duct with a five-bladed fixed-pitch fan was tested. Duct performance data were obtained in hover, vertical climb, and forward flight test conditions. This paper will present a description of the test, duct performance results and correlation with CFD predictions.

  2. Performance predictions for an SSME configuration with an enlarged throat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickerson, G. R.; Dang, L. D.

    1985-01-01

    The Two Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) computer program that was recently developed for NASA was used to predict the performance of a Large Throat Configuration of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Calculations indicate that the current design SSME contains a shock wave that is induced by the nozzle wall shape. In the Large Throat design an even stronger shock wave is predicted. Because of the presence of this shock wave, earlier performance predictions that have neglected shock wave effects have been questioned. The JANNAF thrust chamber performance prediction procedures given in a reference were applied. The analysis includes the effects of two dimensional reacting flow with a shock wave. The effects of the boundary layer with a regenatively cooled wall are also included. A Purdue computer program was used to compute axially symmetric supersonic nozzle flows with an induced shock, but is restricted to flows with a constant ratio of specific heats. Thus, the TDK program was also run with ths assumption and the results of the two programs were compared.

  3. Predictions and Performance on the PACT Teaching Event: Case Studies of High and Low Performers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandholtz, Judith Haymore

    2012-01-01

    In an earlier study, the author and her colleague explored the extent to which supervisors' perspectives about candidates' performance corresponded with outcomes from a summative performance assessment (Sandholtz & Shea, 2012). They specifically examined the relationship between university supervisors' predictions and candidates' performance on…

  4. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    PubMed

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling. PMID:26889709

  5. Predictive Measures of Locomotor Performance on an Unstable Walking Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; De Dios, Y. E.; Gadd, N. E.; Goel, R.; Wood, S. J.; Cohen, H. S.; Oddsson, L. I.; Seidler, R. D.

    2016-01-01

    Locomotion requires integration of visual, vestibular, and somatosensory information to produce the appropriate motor output to control movement. The degree to which these sensory inputs are weighted and reorganized in discordant sensory environments varies by individual and may be predictive of the ability to adapt to novel environments. The goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to inform the design of training countermeasures designed to enhance the ability of astronauts to adapt to gravitational transitions improving balance and locomotor performance after a Mars landing and enhancing egress capability after a landing on Earth.

  6. Prediction of Gas Lubricated Foil Journal Bearing Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpino, Marc; Talmage, Gita

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes the progress in the first eight months of the project. The objectives of this research project are to theoretically predict the steady operating conditions and the rotor dynamic coefficients of gas foil journal bearings. The project is currently on or ahead of schedule with the development of a finite element code that predicts steady bearing performance characteristics such as film thickness, pressure, load, and drag. Graphical results for a typical bearing are presented in the report. Project plans for the next year are discussed.

  7. Improving the performance of predictive process modeling for large datasets

    PubMed Central

    Finley, Andrew O.; Sang, Huiyan; Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2009-01-01

    Advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS) enable accurate geocoding of locations where scientific data are collected. This has encouraged collection of large spatial datasets in many fields and has generated considerable interest in statistical modeling for location-referenced spatial data. The setting where the number of locations yielding observations is too large to fit the desired hierarchical spatial random effects models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is considered. This problem is exacerbated in spatial-temporal and multivariate settings where many observations occur at each location. The recently proposed predictive process, motivated by kriging ideas, aims to maintain the richness of desired hierarchical spatial modeling specifications in the presence of large datasets. A shortcoming of the original formulation of the predictive process is that it induces a positive bias in the non-spatial error term of the models. A modified predictive process is proposed to address this problem. The predictive process approach is knot-based leading to questions regarding knot design. An algorithm is designed to achieve approximately optimal spatial placement of knots. Detailed illustrations of the modified predictive process using multivariate spatial regression with both a simulated and a real dataset are offered. PMID:20016667

  8. Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

    2014-12-01

    Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the

  9. Estimation of Turbulent Wall Jet Velocity Fields for Noise Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nickels, Adam; Ukeiley, Lawrence; Reger, Robert; Cattafesta, Louis

    2015-11-01

    Estimation of the time-dependent turbulent velocity field of a planar wall jet based on discrete surface pressure measurements is performed using stochastic estimation in both the time and frequency domain. Temporally-resolved surface pressure measurements are measured simultaneously with planar Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) snapshots, obtained at a relatively reduced rate. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) is then applied to both the surface pressure probes and the PIV snapshots, allowing for the isolation of portions of the wall pressure and velocity field signals that are well correlated. Using the time-varying pressure expansion coefficients as unconditional variables, velocity expansion coefficients are estimated and used to produce reconstructed estimates of the velocity field. Optimization in terms of number of unconditional probes employed, location of probes, and effects of PIV discretization are investigated with regards to the resulting estimates. Coupled with this analysis, Poisson's equation for fluctuating pressure is solved such that the necessary source terms of an acoustic analogy can be calculated for estimates of the far-field acoustics. Specifically in this work, the effects of using estimated velocity fields to solve for the hydrodynamic pressure and acoustic pressure will be studied.

  10. Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

    2015-01-01

    We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus' onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as "executive control" is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching. PMID:26379568

  11. Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance

    PubMed Central

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M.; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

    2015-01-01

    We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus’ onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as “executive control” is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching. PMID:26379568

  12. A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. Results We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. Conclusions In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to

  13. The Rigors of Predictive Validation: Some Comments on "A Job Learning Approach to Performance Prediction"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Stephen L.; Penner, Louis A.

    1976-01-01

    In a recent article in this journal (EJ 130 391) Siegel and Bergman described a "miniature job training and evaluation" approach to performance prediction. This research highlights their methodology's strengths and weaknesses in light of standard procedures recommended in developing any set of predictors. (Author/RK)

  14. Roadmap Toward a Predictive Performance-based Commercial Energy Code

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenberg, Michael I.; Hart, Philip R.

    2014-10-01

    Energy codes have provided significant increases in building efficiency over the last 38 years, since the first national energy model code was published in late 1975. The most commonly used path in energy codes, the prescriptive path, appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns. The current focus on prescriptive codes has limitations including significant variation in actual energy performance depending on which prescriptive options are chosen, a lack of flexibility for designers and developers, and the inability to handle control optimization that is specific to building type and use. This paper provides a high level review of different options for energy codes, including prescriptive, prescriptive packages, EUI Target, outcome-based, and predictive performance approaches. This paper also explores a next generation commercial energy code approach that places a greater emphasis on performance-based criteria. A vision is outlined to serve as a roadmap for future commercial code development. That vision is based on code development being led by a specific approach to predictive energy performance combined with building specific prescriptive packages that are designed to be both cost-effective and to achieve a desired level of performance. Compliance with this new approach can be achieved by either meeting the performance target as demonstrated by whole building energy modeling, or by choosing one of the prescriptive packages.

  15. Computational prediction of isolated performance of an axisymmetric nozzle at Mach number 0.90

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, John R.

    1994-01-01

    An improved ability to predict external propulsive performance was incorporated into the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code PAB3D. The improvements are the ability to account for skin friction and external pressure forces. Performance parameters for two axisymmetric supersonic cruise nozzle configurations were calculated to test the improved methodology. Internal and external flow-field regions were computed using a two-equation kappa-epsilon turbulent viscous-stress model. The computed thrust-minus-drag ratios were within 1 percent of the absolute level of experimental data and the trends of data were predicted accurately. The predicted trend of integrated nozzle pressure drag matched the trend of the integrated experimental pressure drag over a range of nozzle pressure ratios, but absolute drag levels were not accurately predicted.

  16. Contextual predictability enhances reading performance in patients with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Gerardo; Guinjoan, Salvador; Sapognikoff, Marcelo; Orozco, David; Agamennoni, Osvaldo

    2016-07-30

    In the present work we analyzed fixation duration in 40 healthy individuals and 18 patients with chronic, stable SZ during reading of regular sentences and proverbs. While they read, their eye movements were recorded. We used lineal mixed models to analyze fixation durations. The predictability of words N-1, N, and N+1 exerted a strong influence on controls and SZ patients. The influence of the predictabilities of preceding, current, and upcoming words on SZ was clearly reduced for proverbs in comparison to regular sentences. Both controls and SZ readers were able to use highly predictable fixated words for an easier reading. Our results suggest that SZ readers might compensate attentional and working memory deficiencies by using stored information of familiar texts for enhancing their reading performance. The predictabilities of words in proverbs serve as task-appropriate cues that are used by SZ readers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using eyetracking for measuring how patients with SZ process well-defined words embedded in regular sentences and proverbs. Evaluation of the resulting changes in fixation durations might provide a useful tool for understanding how SZ patients could enhance their reading performance. PMID:27236087

  17. Prediction of incidence and surface roughness effects on turbine performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.

    1993-01-01

    The results of a Navier-Stokes analysis for predicting the change in turbine efficiency due to a change in either incidence or surface roughness is discussed. It was experimentally determined by Boynton, Tabibzadeh, and Hudson that polishing the SSME high pressure fuel turbine blades improved turbine efficiency by about 2 points over a wide range of operating conditions. These conditions encompassed the range of incidence seen by the turbine blading during flight. It is also necessary to be able to predict turbine performance at various operating points for future rocket turbopump applications. The code RVCQ3D, developed by Rod Chima, was used to determine the effects of changes in incidence angle on turbine blade row efficiency. The midspan Navier-Stokes results were used in conjunction with an inviscid flow analysis code to predict the efficiency of the two stage SSME over a wide range of operating conditions for smooth and rough turbine blades. The use of the Navier-Stokes analysis to predict changes in turbine efficiency due to variation in incidence angles was found to be superior to other incidence loss correlations available in the literature. The sensitivity of the Navier-Stokes results to grid parameters is discussed. The effects of the surface roughness were accounted for using the Cebeci-Chang rough wall turbulence model. This model was implemented in the code RVCQ3D. The implementation of this model for predicting the change in efficiency is also discussed.

  18. The ensemble performance index: an improved measure for assessing ensemble pose prediction performance.

    PubMed

    Korb, Oliver; McCabe, Patrick; Cole, Jason

    2011-11-28

    We present a theoretical study on the performance of ensemble docking methodologies considering multiple protein structures. We perform a theoretical analysis of pose prediction experiments which is completely unbiased, as we make no assumptions about specific scoring functions, search paradigms, protein structures, or ligand data sets. We introduce a novel interpretable measure, the ensemble performance index (EPI), for the assessment of scoring performance in ensemble docking, which will be applied to simulated and real data sets. PMID:21962010

  19. A novel prediction method about single components of analog circuits based on complex field modeling.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Jingyu; Tian, Shulin; Yang, Chenglin

    2014-01-01

    Few researches pay attention to prediction about analog circuits. The few methods lack the correlation with circuit analysis during extracting and calculating features so that FI (fault indicator) calculation often lack rationality, thus affecting prognostic performance. To solve the above problem, this paper proposes a novel prediction method about single components of analog circuits based on complex field modeling. Aiming at the feature that faults of single components hold the largest number in analog circuits, the method starts with circuit structure, analyzes transfer function of circuits, and implements complex field modeling. Then, by an established parameter scanning model related to complex field, it analyzes the relationship between parameter variation and degeneration of single components in the model in order to obtain a more reasonable FI feature set via calculation. According to the obtained FI feature set, it establishes a novel model about degeneration trend of analog circuits' single components. At last, it uses particle filter (PF) to update parameters for the model and predicts remaining useful performance (RUP) of analog circuits' single components. Since calculation about the FI feature set is more reasonable, accuracy of prediction is improved to some extent. Finally, the foregoing conclusions are verified by experiments. PMID:25147853

  20. Planar Near-Field Phase Retrieval Using GPUs for Accurate THz Far-Field Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junkin, Gary

    2013-04-01

    With a view to using Phase Retrieval to accurately predict Terahertz antenna far-field from near-field intensity measurements, this paper reports on three fundamental advances that achieve very low algorithmic error penalties. The first is a new Gaussian beam analysis that provides accurate initial complex aperture estimates including defocus and astigmatic phase errors, based only on first and second moment calculations. The second is a powerful noise tolerant near-field Phase Retrieval algorithm that combines Anderson's Plane-to-Plane (PTP) with Fienup's Hybrid-Input-Output (HIO) and Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) to achieve increased accuracy at reduced scan separations. The third advance employs teraflop Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve practically real time near-field phase retrieval and to obtain the optimum aperture constraint without any a priori information.

  1. Prediction of the far field noise from wind energy farms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

    1986-01-01

    The basic physical factors involved in making predictions of wind turbine noise and an approach which allows for differences in the machines, the wind energy farm configurations and propagation conditions are reviewed. Example calculations to illustrate the sensitivity of the radiated noise to such variables as machine size, spacing and numbers, and such atmosphere variables as absorption and wind direction are presented. It is found that calculated far field distances to particular sound level contours are greater for lower values of atmospheric absorption, for a larger total number of machines, for additional rows of machines and for more powerful machines. At short and intermediate distances, higher sound pressure levels are calculated for closer machine spacings, for more powerful machines, for longer row lengths and for closer row spacings.

  2. Gatekeeping in Field Performance: Is Grade Inflation a Given?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sowbel, Lynda R.

    2011-01-01

    This field note presents the results of a pilot study that explored the use of a new non-numerically rated field performance tool, a vignette matching measure for MSW students. Evaluation of performance in the field has proved to be a difficult task because few if any measures, including competency-based measures, have known levels of reliability…

  3. Field Differentiation and LOGO Performance among Zimbabwean Schoolgirls.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, David; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Examines the relationship of field differences to LOGO performance among Black and White Zimbabwean schoolgirls. Finds field independence and performance were related among both groups and remained significant when the intelligence variant was eliminated. Suggests field differentiation is an important concomitant of LOGO competence and simply not…

  4. Recent Progress Towards Predicting Aircraft Ground Handling Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yager, T. J.; White, E. J.

    1981-01-01

    The significant progress which has been achieved in development of aircraft ground handling simulation capability is reviewed and additional improvements in software modeling identified. The problem associated with providing necessary simulator input data for adequate modeling of aircraft tire/runway friction behavior is discussed and efforts to improve this complex model, and hence simulator fidelity, are described. Aircraft braking performance data obtained on several wet runway surfaces is compared to ground vehicle friction measurements and, by use of empirically derived methods, good agreement between actual and estimated aircraft braking friction from ground vehilce data is shown. The performance of a relatively new friction measuring device, the friction tester, showed great promise in providing data applicable to aircraft friction performance. Additional research efforts to improve methods of predicting tire friction performance are discussed including use of an instrumented tire test vehicle to expand the tire friction data bank and a study of surface texture measurement techniques.

  5. Field Dependency and Performance in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onwumere, Onyebuchi; Reid, Norman

    2014-01-01

    Mathematics is an important school subject but one which often poses problems for learners. It has been found that learners do not possess the cognitive capacity to handle understanding procedures, representations, concepts, and applications at the same time. while the extent of field dependency may hold the key to one way by which the working…

  6. Evaluation of PV Module Field Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Wohlgemuth, John; Silverman, Timothy; Miller, David C.; McNutt, Peter; Kempe, Michael; Deceglie, Michael

    2015-06-14

    This paper describes an effort to inspect and evaluate PV modules in order to determine what failure or degradation modes are occurring in field installations. This paper will report on the results of six site visits, including the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) Hedge Array, Tucson Electric Power (TEP) Springerville, Central Florida Utility, Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), the TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification. TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification. TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification.

  7. Alkaline flood prediction studies, Ranger VII pilot, Wilmington Field, California

    SciTech Connect

    Mayer, E.H.; Breit, V.S.

    1982-01-01

    The paper discusses: (1) The design of a simulator to model alkaline displacement mechanisms and the current state-of-the-art understanding of in-situ caustic consumption. (2) Assimilation of laboratory core flood and rock consumption data. Use of this data in 1-D and 2-D limited area simulations, and a 3-D model of the entire pilot project. (3) Simulation studies of alkaline flood behavior in a small 2-D area of the field for various concentrations, slug sizes, long term consumption functions and two relative permeability adjustment mechanisms. (4) Scale up of 2-D simulation results, and their use in a 271 acre 1.097 x 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/), 7 layered 3-D model of the pilot. (5) Comparison of 3-D simulator results with initial field alkaline flood performance. (6) Recommended additional application of the simulator methods developed in this pilot and in other alkaline floods. 10 refs.

  8. Methods to improve neural network performance in daily flows prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, C. L.; Chau, K. W.; Li, Y. S.

    2009-06-01

    SummaryIn this paper, three data-preprocessing techniques, moving average (MA), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (WMRA), were coupled with artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the estimate of daily flows. Six models, including the original ANN model without data preprocessing, were set up and evaluated. Five new models were ANN-MA, ANN-SSA1, ANN-SSA2, ANN-WMRA1, and ANN-WMRA2. The ANN-MA was derived from the raw ANN model combined with the MA. The ANN-SSA1, ANN-SSA2, ANN-WMRA1 and ANN-WMRA2 were generated by using the original ANN model coupled with SSA and WMRA in terms of two different means. Two daily flow series from different watersheds in China (Lushui and Daning) were used in six models for three prediction horizons (i.e., 1-, 2-, and 3-day-ahead forecast). The poor performance on ANN forecast models was mainly due to the existence of the lagged prediction. The ANN-MA, among six models, performed best and eradicated the lag effect. The performances from the ANN-SSA1 and ANN-SSA2 were similar, and the performances from the ANN-WMRA1 and ANN-WMRA2 were also similar. However, the models based on the SSA presented better performance than the models based on the WMRA at all forecast horizons, which meant that the SSA is more effective than the WMRA in improving the ANN performance in the current study. Based on an overall consideration including the model performance and the complexity of modeling, the ANN-MA model was optimal, then the ANN model coupled with SSA, and finally the ANN model coupled with WMRA.

  9. Predictive factors for masticatory performance in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    PubMed

    van Bruggen, H W; van de Engel-Hoek, L; Steenks, M H; Bronkhorst, E M; Creugers, N H J; de Groot, I J M; Kalaykova, S I

    2014-08-01

    Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) report masticatory and swallowing problems. Such problems may cause complications such as choking, and feeling of food sticking in the throat. We investigated whether masticatory performance in DMD is objectively impaired, and explored predictive factors for compromised mastication. Twenty-three patients and 23 controls filled out two questionnaires about mandibular function, and underwent a clinical examination of the masticatory system and measurements of anterior bite force and masticatory performance. In the patients, moreover, quantitative ultrasound of the tongue and motor function measurement was performed. The patients were categorized into ambulatory stage (early or late), early non-ambulatory stage, or late non-ambulatory stage. Masticatory performance, anterior bite force and occlusal contacts were all reduced in the patient group compared to the controls (all p < 0.001). Mastication abnormalities were present early in the disease process prior to a reduction of motor function measurement. The early non-ambulatory and late non-ambulatory stage groups showed less masticatory performance compared to the ambulatory stage group (p < 0.028 and p < 0.010, respectively). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that stage of the disease was the strongest independent risk factor for the masticatory performance (R(2) = 0.52). Anterior bite force, occlusal contacts and masticatory performance in DMD are severely reduced. PMID:24969130

  10. Fuzzy regression modeling for tool performance prediction and degradation detection.

    PubMed

    Li, X; Er, M J; Lim, B S; Zhou, J H; Gan, O P; Rutkowski, L

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, the viability of using Fuzzy-Rule-Based Regression Modeling (FRM) algorithm for tool performance and degradation detection is investigated. The FRM is developed based on a multi-layered fuzzy-rule-based hybrid system with Multiple Regression Models (MRM) embedded into a fuzzy logic inference engine that employs Self Organizing Maps (SOM) for clustering. The FRM converts a complex nonlinear problem to a simplified linear format in order to further increase the accuracy in prediction and rate of convergence. The efficacy of the proposed FRM is tested through a case study - namely to predict the remaining useful life of a ball nose milling cutter during a dry machining process of hardened tool steel with a hardness of 52-54 HRc. A comparative study is further made between four predictive models using the same set of experimental data. It is shown that the FRM is superior as compared with conventional MRM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) in terms of prediction accuracy and learning speed. PMID:20945519

  11. TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

  12. Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

    2002-01-01

    A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.

  13. Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

    SciTech Connect

    Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I.

    1997-12-31

    The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

  14. Foraging Ecology Predicts Learning Performance in Insectivorous Bats

    PubMed Central

    Clarin, Theresa M. A.; Ruczyński, Ireneusz; Page, Rachel A.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are unusual among mammals in showing great ecological diversity even among closely related species and are thus well suited for studies of adaptation to the ecological background. Here we investigate whether behavioral flexibility and simple- and complex-rule learning performance can be predicted by foraging ecology. We predict faster learning and higher flexibility in animals hunting in more complex, variable environments than in animals hunting in more simple, stable environments. To test this hypothesis, we studied three closely related insectivorous European bat species of the genus Myotis that belong to three different functional groups based on foraging habitats: M. capaccinii, an open water forager, M. myotis, a passive listening gleaner, and M. emarginatus, a clutter specialist. We predicted that M. capaccinii would show the least flexibility and slowest learning reflecting its relatively unstructured foraging habitat and the stereotypy of its natural foraging behavior, while the other two species would show greater flexibility and more rapid learning reflecting the complexity of their natural foraging tasks. We used a purposefully unnatural and thus species-fair crawling maze to test simple- and complex-rule learning, flexibility and re-learning performance. We found that M. capaccinii learned a simple rule as fast as the other species, but was slower in complex rule learning and was less flexible in response to changes in reward location. We found no differences in re-learning ability among species. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that animals’ cognitive skills reflect the demands of their ecological niche. PMID:23755146

  15. Predicting performance in competitive apnoea diving. Part I: static apnoea.

    PubMed

    Schagatay, Erika

    2009-06-01

    Ever since the first deep diving competitions were organized, there has been debate about when the ultimate limits of human apnoeic performance will be reached, and which factors will determine these limits. Divers have thus far surpassed all former predictions by physiologists in depth and time. The common factor for all competitive apnoea disciplines is apnoeic duration, which can be prolonged by any means that increase total gas storage or tolerance to asphyxia, or reduce metabolic rate. These main factors can be broken down further into several physiological or psychophysiological factors, which are identified in this review. Like in other sports, the main aim in competitive apnoea is to extend human performance beyond the known limits. While a beginner may extend apnoeic duration by getting closer to his or her personal limit, the elite diver can only extend the duration further by pushing the individual physiological limit further by training. In order to achieve this, it is essential to identify the performance predicting factors of apnoea sports and which factors can be affected by training, work that has only just begun. This is the first of two papers reviewing the main factors predicting performance in competitive apnoea diving, which focuses on static apnoea, while the following paper will review dynamic distance and depth disciplines. Great improvements have been made in all diving disciplines in recent years and the 10-minute barrier in resting 'static apnoea' has been broached. Despite this, current training methods and the strategies employed suggest that duration can be prolonged still further, and divers themselves suggest the ultimate limit will be 15 minutes, which appears physiologically possible, for example, with further development of techniques to reduce metabolic rate. PMID:22753202

  16. Development of a massively parallel parachute performance prediction code

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, C.W.; Strickland, J.H.; Wolfe, W.P.; Sundberg, W.D.; McBride, D.D.

    1997-04-01

    The Department of Energy has given Sandia full responsibility for the complete life cycle (cradle to grave) of all nuclear weapon parachutes. Sandia National Laboratories is initiating development of a complete numerical simulation of parachute performance, beginning with parachute deployment and continuing through inflation and steady state descent. The purpose of the parachute performance code is to predict the performance of stockpile weapon parachutes as these parachutes continue to age well beyond their intended service life. A new massively parallel computer will provide unprecedented speed and memory for solving this complex problem, and new software will be written to treat the coupled fluid, structure and trajectory calculations as part of a single code. Verification and validation experiments have been proposed to provide the necessary confidence in the computations.

  17. Advanced electric field computation for RF sheaths prediction with TOPICA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milanesio, Daniele; Maggiora, Riccardo

    2012-10-01

    The design of an Ion Cyclotron (IC) launcher is not only driven by its coupling properties, but also by its capability of maintaining low parallel electric fields in front of it, in order to provide good power transfer to plasma and to reduce the impurities production. However, due to the impossibility to verify the antenna performances before the starting of the operations, advanced numerical simulation tools are the only alternative to carry out a proper antenna design. With this in mind, it should be clear that the adoption of a code, such as TOPICA [1], able to precisely take into account a realistic antenna geometry and an accurate plasma description, is extremely important to achieve these goals. Because of the recently introduced features that allow to compute the electric field distribution everywhere inside the antenna enclosure and in the plasma column, the TOPICA code appears to be the only alternative to understand which elements may have a not negligible impact on the antenna design and then to suggest further optimizations in order to mitigate RF potentials. The present work documents the evaluation of the electric field map from actual antennas, like the Tore Supra Q5 and the JET A2 launchers, and the foreseen ITER IC antenna. [4pt] [1] D. Milanesio et al., Nucl. Fusion 49, 115019 (2009).

  18. Phase errors and predicted spectral performance of a prototype undulator

    SciTech Connect

    Dejus, R.J.; Vassrman, I.; Moog, E.R.; Gluskin, E.

    1994-08-01

    A prototype undulator has been used to study different magnetic end-configurations and shimming techniques for straightening the beam trajectory. Field distributions obtained by Hall probe measurements were analyzed in terms of trajectory, phase errors, and on-axis brightness for the purpose of correlating predicted spectral intensity with the calculated phase errors. Two device configurations were analyzed. One configuration had a full-strength first magnet at each end and the next-to-last pole was recessed to make the trajectory through the middle of the undulator parallel to the undulator axis. For the second configuration, the first permanent magnet at each end was replaced by a half-strength magnet to reduce the trajectory displacement and the next-to-last pole was adjusted appropriately, and shims were added to straighten the trajectory. Random magnetic field errors can cause trajectory deviations that will affect the optimum angle for viewing the emitted radiation, and care must be taken to select the appropriate angle when calculating the phase errors. This angle may be calculated from the average trajectory angle evaluated at the location of the poles. For the second configuration, we find an rms phase error of less than 3{degrees} and predict 87% of the ideal value of the on-axis brightness for the third harmonic. We have also analyzed the gap dependence of the phase errors and spectral brightness and have found that the rms phase error remain small at all gap settings.

  19. Lessons from application of the UNRES force field to predictions of structures of CASP10 targets

    PubMed Central

    He, Yi; Mozolewska, Magdalena A.; Krupa, Paweł; Sieradzan, Adam K.; Wirecki, Tomasz K.; Liwo, Adam; Kachlishvili, Khatuna; Rackovsky, Shalom; Jagieła, Dawid; Ślusarz, Rafał; Czaplewski, Cezary R.; Ołdziej, Stanisław; Scheraga, Harold A.

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the physics-based protocol, whose main component is the United Residue (UNRES) physics-based coarse-grained force field, developed in our laboratory for the prediction of protein structure from amino acid sequence, is illustrated. Candidate models are selected, based on probabilities of the conformational families determined by multiplexed replica-exchange simulations, from the 10th Community Wide Experiment on the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10). For target T0663, classified as a new fold, which consists of two domains homologous to those of known proteins, UNRES predicted the correct symmetry of packing, in which the domains are rotated with respect to each other by 180° in the experimental structure. By contrast, models obtained by knowledge-based methods, in which each domain is modeled very accurately but not rotated, resulted in incorrect packing. Two UNRES models of this target were featured by the assessors. Correct domain packing was also predicted by UNRES for the homologous target T0644, which has a similar structure to that of T0663, except that the two domains are not rotated. Predictions for two other targets, T0668 and T0684_D2, are among the best ones by global distance test score. These results suggest that our physics-based method has substantial predictive power. In particular, it has the ability to predict domain–domain orientations, which is a significant advance in the state of the art. PMID:23980156

  20. Predicting introductory programming performance: A multi-institutional multivariate study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergin, Susan; Reilly, Ronan

    2006-12-01

    A model for predicting student performance on introductory programming modules is presented. The model uses attributes identified in a study carried out at four third-level institutions in the Republic of Ireland. Four instruments were used to collect the data and over 25 attributes were examined. A data reduction technique was applied and a logistic regression model using 10-fold stratified cross validation was developed. The model used three attributes: Leaving Certificate Mathematics result (final mathematics examination at second level), number of hours playing computer games while taking the module and programming self-esteem. Prediction success was significant with 80% of students correctly classified. The model also works well on a per-institution level. A discussion on the implications of the model is provided and future work is outlined.

  1. A high performance field-reversed configuration

    SciTech Connect

    Binderbauer, M. W.; Tajima, T.; Steinhauer, L. C.; Garate, E.; Tuszewski, M.; Smirnov, A.; Gota, H.; Barnes, D.; Deng, B. H.; Thompson, M. C.; Trask, E.; Yang, X.; Putvinski, S.; Rostoker, N.; Andow, R.; Aefsky, S.; Bolte, N.; Bui, D. Q.; Ceccherini, F.; Clary, R.; and others

    2015-05-15

    Conventional field-reversed configurations (FRCs), high-beta, prolate compact toroids embedded in poloidal magnetic fields, face notable stability and confinement concerns. These can be ameliorated by various control techniques, such as introducing a significant fast ion population. Indeed, adding neutral beam injection into the FRC over the past half-decade has contributed to striking improvements in confinement and stability. Further, the addition of electrically biased plasma guns at the ends, magnetic end plugs, and advanced surface conditioning led to dramatic reductions in turbulence-driven losses and greatly improved stability. Together, these enabled the build-up of a well-confined and dominant fast-ion population. Under such conditions, highly reproducible, macroscopically stable hot FRCs (with total plasma temperature of ∼1 keV) with record lifetimes were achieved. These accomplishments point to the prospect of advanced, beam-driven FRCs as an intriguing path toward fusion reactors. This paper reviews key results and presents context for further interpretation.

  2. A high performance field-reversed configurationa)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binderbauer, M. W.; Tajima, T.; Steinhauer, L. C.; Garate, E.; Tuszewski, M.; Schmitz, L.; Guo, H. Y.; Smirnov, A.; Gota, H.; Barnes, D.; Deng, B. H.; Thompson, M. C.; Trask, E.; Yang, X.; Putvinski, S.; Rostoker, N.; Andow, R.; Aefsky, S.; Bolte, N.; Bui, D. Q.; Ceccherini, F.; Clary, R.; Cheung, A. H.; Conroy, K. D.; Dettrick, S. A.; Douglass, J. D.; Feng, P.; Galeotti, L.; Giammanco, F.; Granstedt, E.; Gupta, D.; Gupta, S.; Ivanov, A. A.; Kinley, J. S.; Knapp, K.; Korepanov, S.; Hollins, M.; Magee, R.; Mendoza, R.; Mok, Y.; Necas, A.; Primavera, S.; Onofri, M.; Osin, D.; Rath, N.; Roche, T.; Romero, J.; Schroeder, J. H.; Sevier, L.; Sibley, A.; Song, Y.; Van Drie, A. D.; Walters, J. K.; Waggoner, W.; Yushmanov, P.; Zhai, K.

    2015-05-01

    Conventional field-reversed configurations (FRCs), high-beta, prolate compact toroids embedded in poloidal magnetic fields, face notable stability and confinement concerns. These can be ameliorated by various control techniques, such as introducing a significant fast ion population. Indeed, adding neutral beam injection into the FRC over the past half-decade has contributed to striking improvements in confinement and stability. Further, the addition of electrically biased plasma guns at the ends, magnetic end plugs, and advanced surface conditioning led to dramatic reductions in turbulence-driven losses and greatly improved stability. Together, these enabled the build-up of a well-confined and dominant fast-ion population. Under such conditions, highly reproducible, macroscopically stable hot FRCs (with total plasma temperature of ˜1 keV) with record lifetimes were achieved. These accomplishments point to the prospect of advanced, beam-driven FRCs as an intriguing path toward fusion reactors. This paper reviews key results and presents context for further interpretation.

  3. The Influence of Viscous Effects on Ice Accretion Prediction and Airfoil Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Wright, William B.

    2005-01-01

    A computational study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of using a viscous flow solution in an ice accretion code and the resulting accuracy of aerodynamic performance prediction. Ice shapes were obtained for one single-element and one multi-element airfoil using both potential flow and Navier-Stokes flowfields in the LEWICE ice accretion code. Aerodynamics were then calculated using a Navier-Stokes flow solver.

  4. System performance predictions for Space Station Freedom's electric power system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Green, Robert D.; Follo, Jeffrey C.

    1993-01-01

    Space Station Freedom Electric Power System (EPS) capability to effectively deliver power to housekeeping and user loads continues to strongly influence Freedom's design and planned approaches for assembly and operations. The EPS design consists of silicon photovoltaic (PV) arrays, nickel-hydrogen batteries, and direct current power management and distribution hardware and cabling. To properly characterize the inherent EPS design capability, detailed system performance analyses must be performed for early stages as well as for the fully assembled station up to 15 years after beginning of life. Such analyses were repeatedly performed using the FORTRAN code SPACE (Station Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center over a 10-year period. SPACE combines orbital mechanics routines, station orientation/pointing routines, PV array and battery performance models, and a distribution system load-flow analysis to predict EPS performance. Time-dependent, performance degradation, low earth orbit environmental interactions, and EPS architecture build-up are incorporated in SPACE. Results from two typical SPACE analytical cases are presented: (1) an electric load driven case and (2) a maximum EPS capability case.

  5. Predicting the protein targets for athletic performance-enhancing substances

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) publishes the Prohibited List, a manually compiled international standard of substances and methods prohibited in-competition, out-of-competition and in particular sports. It would be ideal to be able to identify all substances that have one or more performance-enhancing pharmacological actions in an automated, fast and cost effective way. Here, we use experimental data derived from the ChEMBL database (~7,000,000 activity records for 1,300,000 compounds) to build a database model that takes into account both structure and experimental information, and use this database to predict both on-target and off-target interactions between these molecules and targets relevant to doping in sport. Results The ChEMBL database was screened and eight well populated categories of activities (Ki, Kd, EC50, ED50, activity, potency, inhibition and IC50) were used for a rule-based filtering process to define the labels “active” or “inactive”. The “active” compounds for each of the ChEMBL families were thereby defined and these populated our bioactivity-based filtered families. A structure-based clustering step was subsequently performed in order to split families with more than one distinct chemical scaffold. This produced refined families, whose members share both a common chemical scaffold and bioactivity against a common target in ChEMBL. Conclusions We have used the Parzen-Rosenblatt machine learning approach to test whether compounds in ChEMBL can be correctly predicted to belong to their appropriate refined families. Validation tests using the refined families gave a significant increase in predictivity compared with the filtered or with the original families. Out of 61,660 queries in our Monte Carlo cross-validation, belonging to 19,639 refined families, 41,300 (66.98%) had the parent family as the top prediction and 53,797 (87.25%) had the parent family in the top four hits. Having thus validated our approach, we used

  6. Neighborhood Integration and Connectivity Predict Cognitive Performance and Decline

    PubMed Central

    Watts, Amber; Ferdous, Farhana; Moore, Keith Diaz; Burns, Jeffrey M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Neighborhood characteristics may be important for promoting walking, but little research has focused on older adults, especially those with cognitive impairment. We evaluated the role of neighborhood characteristics on cognitive function and decline over a 2-year period adjusting for measures of walking. Method In a study of 64 older adults with and without mild Alzheimer's disease (AD), we evaluated neighborhood integration and connectivity using geographical information systems data and space syntax analysis. In multiple regression analyses, we used these characteristics to predict 2-year declines in factor analytically derived cognitive scores (attention, verbal memory, mental status) adjusting for age, sex, education, and self-reported walking. Results Neighborhood integration and connectivity predicted cognitive performance at baseline, and changes in cognitive performance over 2 years. The relationships between neighborhood characteristics and cognitive performance were not fully explained by self-reported walking. Discussion Clearer definitions of specific neighborhood characteristics associated with walkability are needed to better understand the mechanisms by which neighborhoods may impact cognitive outcomes. These results have implications for measuring neighborhood characteristics, design and maintenance of living spaces, and interventions to increase walking among older adults. We offer suggestions for future research measuring neighborhood characteristics and cognitive function. PMID:26504889

  7. Numerical simulation of a twin screw expander for performance prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papes, Iva; Degroote, Joris; Vierendeels, Jan

    2015-08-01

    With the increasing use of twin screw expanders in waste heat recovery applications, the performance prediction of these machines plays an important role. This paper presents a mathematical model for calculating the performance of a twin screw expander. From the mass and energy conservation laws, differential equations are derived which are then solved together with the appropriate Equation of State in the instantaneous control volumes. Different flow processes that occur inside the screw expander such as filling (accompanied by a substantial pressure loss) and leakage flows through the clearances are accounted for in the model. The mathematical model employs all geometrical parameters such as chamber volume, suction and leakage areas. With R245fa as working fluid, the Aungier Redlich-Kwong Equation of State has been used in order to include real gas effects. To calculate the mass flow rates through the leakage paths formed inside the screw expander, flow coefficients are considered as constant and they are derived from 3D Computational Fluid Dynamic calculations at given working conditions and applied to all other working conditions. The outcome of the mathematical model is the P-V indicator diagram which is compared to CFD results of the same twin screw expander. Since CFD calculations require significant computational time, developed mathematical model can be used for the faster performance prediction.

  8. Cortical structure predicts success in performing musical transformation judgments.

    PubMed

    Foster, Nicholas E V; Zatorre, Robert J

    2010-10-15

    Recognizing melodies by their interval structure, or "relative pitch," is a fundamental aspect of musical perception. By using relative pitch, we are able to recognize tunes regardless of the key in which they are played. We sought to determine the cortical areas important for relative pitch processing using two morphometric techniques. Cortical differences have been reported in musicians within right auditory cortex (AC), a region considered important for pitch-based processing, and we have previously reported a functional correlation between relative pitch processing in the anterior intraparietal sulcus (IPS). We addressed the hypothesis that regional variation of cortical structure within AC and IPS is related to relative pitch ability using two anatomical techniques, cortical thickness (CT) analysis and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) of magnetic resonance imaging data. Persons with variable amounts of formal musical training were tested on a melody transposition task, as well as two musical control tasks and a speech control task. We found that gray matter concentration and cortical thickness in right Heschl's sulcus and bilateral IPS both predicted relative pitch task performance and correlated to a lesser extent with performance on the two musical control tasks. After factoring out variance explained by musical training, only relative pitch performance was predicted by cortical structure in these regions. These results directly demonstrate the functional relevance of previously reported anatomical differences in the auditory cortex of musicians. The findings in the IPS provide further support for the existence of a multimodal network for systematic transformation of stimulus information in this region. PMID:20600982

  9. WRF Performance Skills in Predicting Rainfall Over the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, G. J. P.; Combinido, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used for predicting rainfall over the Philippines. The period of October 2013 to May 2014 is chosen for the evaluation because of the unprecedented number of new ground instruments (300 to 500 automated rain gauges). It also gives us a good statistical representation of wet and dry seasons in the country. The WRF model configuration makes use of NCEP FNL for the initial boundary condition. Hindcasts are produced at 12-km resolution with 12 hours up to 144 hours lead-time. To assess the predictability of rainfall, we look at the dichotomous case, wherein we evaluate if the model is able to predict correctly the number of rainfall events. The left column in Figure 1 shows the monthly Percent Correct and Critical Success Index (CSI) for different lead-time. Percent Correct represents how well the model performs, 1 being the highest score, with equal bearing on correct positives and correct negatives. On the other hand, CSI is a balanced score that accounts for false alarm and missed events - it has a range of 0 to 1, where 1 means perfect forecast. Results show that during the wet season (October, November and December), PC is approximately 0.7 while in dry season (January, February and March), PC reaches values of around 0.9, which suggests improvement in the performance from wet to dry season. The increase in performance is attributed to the increase in number of correct negatives during the dry season. The CSI score, which excludes the correct negatives, shows that the ability of WRF to predict rainfall events drastically decline in December or during the transition from wet to dry season. This is due to the inability of WRF to pinpoint exact locations of small convective rainfall events. The predictability of actual rainfall values is indicated by the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in Figure 1. The MAE for 3-hour accumulated rainfall is smallest during the dry season.

  10. Application of Phase-field Method in Predicting Gas Bubble Microstructure Evolution in Nuclear Fuels

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Shenyang Y.; Li, Yulan; Sun, Xin; Gao, Fei; Devanathan, Ramaswami; Henager, Charles H.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-04-30

    Fission product accumulation and gas bubble microstructure evolution in nuclear fuels strongly affect thermo-mechanical properties such as thermal conductivity, gas release, volumetric swelling and cracking, and hence the fuel performance. In this paper, a general phase-field model is developed to predict gas bubble formation and evolution. Important materials processes and thermodynamic properties including the generation of gas atoms and vacancies, sinks for vacancies and gas atoms, the elastic interaction among defects, gas re-solution, and inhomogeneity of elasticity and diffusivity are accounted for in the model. The simulations demonstrate the potential application of the phase-field method in investigating 1) heterogeneous nucleation of gas bubbles at defects; 2) effect of elastic interaction, inhomogeneity of material properties, and gas re-solution on gas bubble microstructures; and 3) effective properties from the output of phase-field simulations such as distribution of defects, gas bubbles, and stress fields.

  11. A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

  12. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  13. Performance prediction for windmills with linkage-guided blades

    SciTech Connect

    Nahas, M.N.; Akyurt, M. )

    1992-01-01

    Three windmills with linkage-guided blades that were previously described by the authors are future studied to predict their performance. The present paper concentrates on the guiding mechanisms of the active power producing surfaces (or blades) and on the output torque. Also investigated here is the effect of the orientation of these blades with respect to their guiding links. The fluctuation in the output torque of one-blade windmills has led to the investigation of the output torque that can be obtained from three-bladed machines. These latter windmills are found to reduce the fluctuation in the output torque considerably. Areas for further improvement are discussed.

  14. Predicting the optimized thermoelectric performance of MgAgSb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, C. Y.; Liu, H. J.; Fan, D. D.; Cheng, L.; Zhang, J.; Wei, J.; Liang, J. H.; Jiang, P. H.; Shi, J.

    2016-05-01

    Using first-principles method and Boltzmann theory, we provide an accurate prediction of the electronic band structure and thermoelectric transport properties of α-MgAgSb. Our calculations demonstrate that only when an appropriate exchange-correlation functional is chosen can we correctly reproduce the semiconducting nature of this compound. By fine tuning the carrier concentration, the thermoelectric performance of α-MgAgSb can be significantly optimized, which exhibits a strong temperature dependence and gives a maximum ZT value of 1.7 at 550 K. We also provide a simple map by which one can efficiently find the best doping atoms and optimal doping content.

  15. Accurate Structure Prediction and Conformational Analysis of Cyclic Peptides with Residue-Specific Force Fields.

    PubMed

    Geng, Hao; Jiang, Fan; Wu, Yun-Dong

    2016-05-19

    Cyclic peptides (CPs) are promising candidates for drugs, chemical biology tools, and self-assembling nanomaterials. However, the development of reliable and accurate computational methods for their structure prediction has been challenging. Here, 20 all-trans CPs of 5-12 residues selected from Cambridge Structure Database have been simulated using replica-exchange molecular dynamics with four different force fields. Our recently developed residue-specific force fields RSFF1 and RSFF2 can correctly identify the crystal-like conformations of more than half CPs as the most populated conformation. The RSFF2 performs the best, which consistently predicts the crystal structures of 17 out of 20 CPs with rmsd < 1.1 Å. We also compared the backbone (ϕ, ψ) sampling of residues in CPs with those in short linear peptides and in globular proteins. In general, unlike linear peptides, CPs have local conformational free energies and entropies quite similar to globular proteins. PMID:27128113

  16. Analytical Prediction and Optimization of Far-Field Pyroshock Test Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacher, Alexander; Jungel, Nikolas; von Wagner, Utz; Bager, Annette

    2012-07-01

    The simulation of far-field pyroshocks is mainly performed by the use of mechanical or mechatronic devices such as hammer pendulums, shakers and piezoactors. Latter show limitations concerning frequency and acceleration ranges which does not hold for hammer pendulums or bolt guns. Their controllability, however, is rather unsatisfactory and there still exists a general lack of computational prediction tools for usually time consuming and costly far-field pyroshock tests. Mechanical minimal models of existing hammer test devices are presented and investigated by the use of the finite element and analytical methods. The tedious mechanical impact problem is reduced by introducing a nonlinear compressive spring connecting striking partners. Computational test results are verified by experiments and optimized by an evolution strategy allowing for determination of optimum test parameters. The algorithms developed are the basis for fast and efficient predictions of pyroshock tests.

  17. Analytic prediction of sidelobe statistics for matched-field processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tracey, Brian; Lee, Nigel; Zurk, Lisa

    2002-05-01

    Underwater source localization using matched-field processing (MFP) is complicated by the relatively high sidelobe levels characteristic of MFP ambiguity surfaces. An understanding of sidelobe statistics is expected to aid in designing robust detection and localization algorithms. MFP sidelobe levels are influenced by the underwater channel, array design, and mismatch between assumed and actual environmental parameters. In earlier work [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 2645 (2000)], a statistical approach was used to derive analytic expressions for the probability distribution function of the Bartlett ambiguity surface. The distribution was shown to depend on the orthogonality of the mode shapes as sampled by the array. Extensions to a wider class of array geometries and to broadband processing will be shown. Numerical results demonstrating the accuracy of the analytic results and exploring their range of validity will be presented. Finally, analytic predictions will be compared to data from the Santa Barbara Channel experiment. [Work sponsored by DARPA under Air Force Contract F19628-00-C0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the Department of Defense.

  18. Predicting Native English-Like Performance by Native Japanese Speakers

    PubMed Central

    Ingvalson, Erin M.; McClelland, James L.; Holt, Lori L.

    2011-01-01

    This study tested the predictions of the Speech Learning Model (SLM, Flege, 1988) on the case of native Japanese (NJ) speakers’ perception and production of English /ɹ / and /l/. NJ speakers’ degree of foreign accent, intelligibility of /ɹ –l/ productions, and ability to perceive natural speech /ɹ –l/ were assessed as a function of length of residency in North America, age of arrival in North America, years of student status in an English environment, and percentage of Japanese usage. Additionally, the extent to which NJ speakers’ utilized the F3 onset cue when differentiating /ɹ –l/ in perception and production was assessed, this cue having previously been shown to be the most reliable indicator of category membership. As predicted, longer residencies predicted more native English-like accents, more intelligible productions, and more accurate natural speech identifications; however, no changes were observed in F3 reliance, indicating that though performance improves it does so through reliance on other cues. PMID:22021941

  19. Planetary Suit Hip Bearing Model for Predicting Design vs. Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cowley, Matthew S.; Margerum, Sarah; Harvil, Lauren; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2011-01-01

    , the suited performance trends were comparable between the model and the suited subjects. With the three off-nominal bearing configurations compared to the nominal bearing configurations, human subjects showed decreases in hip flexion of 64%, 6%, and 13% and in hip abduction of 59%, 2%, and 20%. Likewise the solid model showed decreases in hip flexion of 58%, 1%, and 25% and in hip abduction of 56%, 0%, and 30%, under the same condition changes from the nominal configuration. Differences seen between the model predictions and the human subject performance data could be attributed to the model lacking dynamic elements and performing kinematic analysis only, the level of fit of the subjects with the suit, the levels of the subject s suit experience.

  20. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  1. Numerical Prediction of SERN Performance using WIND code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engblom, W. A.

    2003-01-01

    Computational results are presented for the performance and flow behavior of single-expansion ramp nozzles (SERNs) during overexpanded operation and transonic flight. Three-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) results are obtained for two vehicle configurations, including the NASP Model 5B and ISTAR RBCC (a variant of X-43B) using the WIND code. Numerical predictions for nozzle integrated forces and pitch moments are directly compared to experimental data for the NASP Model 5B, and adequate-to-excellent agreement is found. The sensitivity of SERN performance and separation phenomena to freestream static pressure and Mach number is demonstrated via a matrix of cases for both vehicles. 3-D separation regions are shown to be induced by either lateral (e.g., sidewall) shocks or vertical (e.g., cowl trailing edge) shocks. Finally, the implications of this work to future preliminary design efforts involving SERNs are discussed.

  2. Prediction Versus Reality: The Use of Mathematical Models to Predict Elite Performance in Swimming and Athletics at the Olympic Games

    PubMed Central

    Heazlewood, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    A number of studies have attempted to predict future Olympic performances in athletics and swimming based on trends displayed in previous Olympic Games. Some have utilised linear models to plot and predict change, whereas others have utilised multiple curve estimation methods based on inverse, sigmoidal, quadratic, cubic, compound, logistic, growth and exponential functions. The non linear models displayed closer fits to the actual data and were used to predict performance changes 10’s, 100’s and 1000’s of years into the future. Some models predicted that in some events male and female times and distances would crossover and females would eventually display superior performance to males. Predictions using mathematical models based on pre-1996 athletics and pre-1998 swimming performances were evaluated based on how closely they predicted sprints and jumps, and freestyle swimming performances for both male and females at the 2000 and 2004 Olympic Games. The analyses revealed predictions were closer for the shorter swimming events where men’s 50m and women’s 50m and 100m actual times were almost identical to predicted times. For both men and women, as the swim distances increased the accuracy of the predictive model decreased, where predicted times were 4.5-7% faster than actual times achieved. The real trends in some events currently displaying performance declines were not foreseen by the mathematical models, which predicted consistent improvements across all athletic and swimming events selected for in this study. Key Points Prediction of future Olympic performance based on previous performance trends. Application of non-linear mathematical equations resulting in better fitting models. Application of mathematical predictive models to the Olympic sports of athletics and swimming. Accuracy of mathematical models in predicting sprint events in running and swimming. A research approach to predict future Olympic performance and set future performance standards

  3. Alkaline flood prediction studies, Ranger VII pilot, Wilmington Field, California

    SciTech Connect

    Mayer, E.H.; Breit, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses the design of a simulator to model alkaline displacement mechanisms, along with the current understanding of in-situ caustic consumption. Assimilation of laboratory coreflood and rock consumption data, and their use in one- and two-dimensional (1D and 2D) limited area simulations and in three-dimensional (3D) models of the entire pilot project are given. This paper also reports simulation studies of alkaline flood behavior in a small 2D area of a field for various concentrations, slug sizes, long-term consumption functions, and two relative-permeability adjustment mechanisms. The scale-up of 2D simulation results and their use in a 271-acre (1096.7-ha), seven-layered, 3D model of the pilot are also discussed and 3D simulator results are compared with initial field alkaline flood performance. Finally, recommended additional applications of the simulator methods developed in this pilot and in other alkaline floods are discussed.

  4. A phenomenological performance model for applied-field MPD thrusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albertoni, R.; Paganucci, F.; Andrenucci, M.

    2015-02-01

    A theoretical model for the performance prediction of applied-field magnetoplasmadynamic thrusters (MPDTs) is presented. MPD thrusters have been long regarded as leading candidates for near-term, thrust-demanding missions due to their substantial thrust density and specific impulse even at moderate power levels (50-200 kW). However, the complicated physics behind the acceleration mechanism as well as the challenging on-ground testing have delayed their development and optimization leading to a slow but constant decline of interest in such a technology. Despite several theoretical efforts in the last few decades, no complete and definitive understanding of the scaling relations governing their performance is yet available. In this work, a simple phenomenological model for both the thrust and the terminal voltage is presented and discussed. The validity of the model is then assessed through a systematic comparison with the experimental data available in the literature. It was found that the suggested model can actually capture most of the characteristic features of this class of thrusters within a 20% error for a wide range of operational conditions.

  5. Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Wheat Breeding Through Spatial Adjustment of Field Trial Data

    PubMed Central

    Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

    2013-01-01

    In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models. PMID:24082033

  6. Prediction of the Aero-Acoustic Performance of Open Rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanZante, Dale; Envia, Edmane

    2014-01-01

    The rising cost of jet fuel has renewed interest in contrarotating open rotor propulsion systems. Contemporary design methods offer the potential to maintain the inherently high aerodynamic efficiency of open rotors while greatly reducing their noise output, something that was not feasible in the 1980's designs. The primary source mechanisms of open rotor noise generation are thought to be the front rotor wake and tip vortex interacting with the aft rotor. In this paper, advanced measurement techniques and high-fidelity prediction tools are used to gain insight into the relative importance of the contributions to the open rotor noise signature of the front rotor wake and rotor tip vortex. The measurements include three-dimensional particle image velocimetry of the intra-rotor flowfield and the acoustic field of a model-scale open rotor. The predictions provide the unsteady flowfield and the associated acoustic field. The results suggest that while the front rotor tip vortex can have a significant influence on the blade passing tone noise produced by the aft rotor, the front rotor wake plays the decisive role in the generation of the interaction noise produced as a result of the unsteady aerodynamic interaction of the two rotors. At operating conditions typical of takeoff and landing operations, the interaction noise level is easily on par with that generated by the individual rotors, and in some cases is even higher. This suggests that a comprehensive approach to reducing open rotor noise should include techniques for mitigating the wake of the front rotor as well as eliminating the interaction of the front rotor tip vortex with the aft rotor blade tip.

  7. Predicting performance in competitive apnea diving. Part III: deep diving.

    PubMed

    Schagatay, Erika

    2011-12-01

    The first of these reviews described the physiological factors defining the limits of static apnea, while the second examined performance in apneic distance swimming. This paper reviews the factors determining performance in depth disciplines, where hydrostatic pressure is added to the stressors associated with apnea duration and physical work. Apneic duration is essential for performance in all disciplines, and is prolonged by any means that increases gas storage or tolerance to asphyxia or reduces metabolic rate. For underwater distance swimming, the main challenge is to restrict metabolism despite the work of swimming, and to redirect blood flow to allow the most vital functions. Here, work economy, local tissue energy and oxygen stores, anaerobic capacity of the muscles, and possibly technical improvements will be essential for further development. In the depth disciplines, direct pressure effects causing barotrauma, the narcotic effects of gases, decompression sickness (DCS) and possibly air embolism during ascent need to be taken into account, as does the risk of hypoxia when the dive cannot be rapidly interrupted before the surface is reached again. While in most deep divers apneic duration is not the main limitation thus far, greater depths may call for exceptionally long apneas and slower ascents to avoid DCS. Narcotic effects may also affect the ultimate depth limit, which the divers currently performing 'constant weight with fins' dives predict to be around 156 metres' sea water. To reach these depths, serious physiological challenges have to be met, technical developments needed and safety procedures developed concomitantly. PMID:22183699

  8. Burst muscle performance predicts the speed, acceleration, and turning performance of Anna's hummingbirds.

    PubMed

    Segre, Paolo S; Dakin, Roslyn; Zordan, Victor B; Dickinson, Michael H; Straw, Andrew D; Altshuler, Douglas L

    2015-01-01

    Despite recent advances in the study of animal flight, the biomechanical determinants of maneuverability are poorly understood. It is thought that maneuverability may be influenced by intrinsic body mass and wing morphology, and by physiological muscle capacity, but this hypothesis has not yet been evaluated because it requires tracking a large number of free flight maneuvers from known individuals. We used an automated tracking system to record flight sequences from 20 Anna's hummingbirds flying solo and in competition in a large chamber. We found that burst muscle capacity predicted most performance metrics. Hummingbirds with higher burst capacity flew with faster velocities, accelerations, and rotations, and they used more demanding complex turns. In contrast, body mass did not predict variation in maneuvering performance, and wing morphology predicted only the use of arcing turns and high centripetal accelerations. Collectively, our results indicate that burst muscle capacity is a key predictor of maneuverability. PMID:26583753

  9. Predicting the Impacts of Intravehicular Displays on Driving Performance with Human Performance Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Diane Kuhl; Wojciechowski, Josephine; Samms, Charneta

    2012-01-01

    A challenge facing the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as well as international safety experts, is the need to educate car drivers about the dangers associated with performing distraction tasks while driving. Researchers working for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have developed a technique for predicting the increase in mental workload that results when distraction tasks are combined with driving. They implement this technique using human performance modeling. They have predicted workload associated with driving combined with cell phone use. In addition, they have predicted the workload associated with driving military vehicles combined with threat detection. Their technique can be used by safety personnel internationally to demonstrate the dangers of combining distracter tasks with driving and to mitigate the safety risks.

  10. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    PubMed

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The