Science.gov

Sample records for predicting future duration

  1. Predicting the Future as Bayesian Inference: People Combine Prior Knowledge with Observations when Estimating Duration and Extent

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

  2. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, A.; Castellarin, A.; Brath, A.

    2013-11-01

    We present in this study an adaptation of Topological kriging (or Top-kriging), which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting flow-duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of Top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.). In this study Top-kriging is used to predict FDCs in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. Our study focuses on the prediction of period-of-record FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in Central Italy, for which daily streamflow series with length from 5 to 40 yr are available, together with information on climate referring to the same time-span of each daily streamflow sequence. Empirical FDCs are standardised by a reference streamflow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation times the catchment drainage area) and the overall deviation of the curves from this reference value is then used for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We performed an extensive leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique, and to compare it to traditional regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region. The cross-validation points out that Top-kriging is a reliable approach for predicting FDCs, which can significantly outperform traditional regional models in ungauged basins.

  3. Shortened Sleep Duration does not Predict Obesity in Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Calamaro, Christina J.; Park, Sunhee; Mason, Thornton B. A.; Marcus, Carole L.; Weaver, Terri E.; Pack, Allan; Ratcliffe, Sarah J.

    2010-01-01

    Obesity continues to be a major public health issue. In adolescents, there are limited studies on the relationship between obesity and sleep duration. We hypothesied that average sleep duration of less than 6 hours in adolescents was associated with obesity. Data was from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD Health); survey of 90,000 youths, ages 12 – 18 years; surveyed in several waves. The sample population for our study was 13,568. Weighted multiple logistic regression was used to identify relationship between obesity at Wave II and sleep duration, having adjusted for skipping breakfast ≥ 2/week; race, gender, parental income, TV ≥ 2hrs/day, depression, and obesity at Wave I. At Wave I, mean age 15.96±0.11 yrs; mean sleep hours 7.91±0.04. 10.6% and 11.2% of adolescents were obese at Waves I and II, respectively. Adjusted analyses suggest that effect of shortened sleep duration in Wave I was not significantly predictive of obesity in Wave II (p<0.218).Longitudinally, depression and TV ≥ 2hrs/day at Wave I was associated with higher risk of obesity at Wave II in adjusted analyses. Depressed adolescents were almost twice as likely to be obese (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.25–2.72); adolescents who watched TV ≥ 2hrs/day were 37% more likely to be obese (OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.09–1.72).Environmental factors including TV ≥ 2hrs/day and depression were significantly associated with obesity; shortened sleep duration was not. Future longitudinal studies in adolescents are needed to determine whether timing of television watching directly influences sleep patterns, and ultimately obesity. PMID:20545836

  4. Correcting Memory Improves Accuracy of Predicted Task Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Michael M.; Mitten, Scott T.; Christenfeld, Nicholas J. S.

    2008-01-01

    People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through…

  5. Space mechanisms needs for future NASA long duration space missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fusaro, Robert L.

    1991-01-01

    Future NASA long duration missions will require high performance, reliable, long lived mechanical moving systems. In order to develop these systems, high technology components, such as bearings, gears, seals, lubricants, etc., will need to be utilized. There has been concern in the NASA community that the current technology level in these mechanical component/tribology areas may not be adequate to meet the goals of long duration NASA mission such as Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). To resolve this concern, NASA-Lewis sent a questionnaire to government and industry workers (who have been involved in space mechanism research, design, and implementation) to ask their opinion if the current space mechanisms technology (mechanical components/tribology) is adequate to meet future NASA Mission needs and goals. In addition, a working group consisting of members from each NASA Center, DoD, and DOE was established to study the technology status. The results of the survey and conclusions of the working group are summarized.

  6. Mathematical models for predicting G-duration tolerances.

    PubMed

    Burton, R R

    2000-10-01

    Mathematical models that predict fatigue-based G-duration tolerances for relaxed and straining subjects are developed and validated using published data. These models are based on regression analysis calculations using published G-duration tolerance data of relaxed subjects exposed to 3-5 G and subjects exposed to 6-9 G using an anti-G suit and performing the anti-G straining maneuver. These G-duration models are derived from published G-level tolerance models based on intravascular hydrostatic pressures and physiologic responses to maximum voluntary contractions (MVC%). Included in the validation of these models are the baroreceptor and muscle contraction cardiovascular reflexes that support arterial BP. A basic energy pool that supports a G-duration of 140 s for G exposures > 5 G is theorized. Because of the long duration of sustained G exposures in these models, the physiologic dynamics involved in predicting straining G-duration tolerances, are identified and validated using different time periods, i.e., Phases I and II. These models, based on sustained G exposures to a constant G level are also applicable to exposures of variable G levels known as simulated aerial combat maneuver (SACM) G-profile tolerances. G-duration tolerances > 9 G are predicted using these models for subjects using reclined-seat backs and positive pressure breathing. PMID:11051304

  7. Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

  8. Predictions of Future Daily Behaviors: A Further Replication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bull, C. Neil

    The present study is a continuation of a series of studies dealing with predictions of future daily behaviors. Because of the finite nature of time, people have to make choices among activities, bearing in mind the duration of such activities. The dimension of "discretion", which deals specifically with the duration of time a person spends on an…

  9. Believing Is Seeing: Fixation Duration Predicts Implicit Negative Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    A prototypical finding of social cognition is that social experiences influence later performance even though those experiences are not introspectively available. Building on social cognition research on implicit attitudes, we evaluate whether ethnic category/attribute pairs influence eye movements during the Implicit Association Test (IAT, Greenwald, McGhee, & Schwartz 1998). Results show that fixation duration predicted implicit attitudes such that when the category/attribute pairs disconfirmed one's implicit negative attitude fixation duration toward that pair increased. The present research provides evidence that eye movements and implicit processes inherent in the IAT are more broadly connected than previously thought. PMID:25133639

  10. Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzedakis, P. C.; Wolff, E. W.; Skinner, L. C.; Brovkin, V.; Hodell, D. A.; McManus, J. F.; Raynaud, D.

    2012-04-01

    Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar-seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the peak in boreal summer insolation and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing dictating the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~13 kyr) and longer (~28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing an interglacial "relaxation" time over which gradual cooling takes place. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial iinception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than

  11. Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzedakis, P. C.; Wolff, E. W.; Skinner, L. C.; Brovkin, V.; Hodell, D. A.; McManus, J. F.; Raynaud, D.

    2012-09-01

    Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the

  12. Ongoing behavior predicts perceptual report of interval duration

    PubMed Central

    Gouvêa, Thiago S.; Monteiro, Tiago; Soares, Sofia; Atallah, Bassam V.; Paton, Joseph J.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to estimate the passage of time is essential for adaptive behavior in complex environments. Yet, it is not known how the brain encodes time over the durations necessary to explain animal behavior. Under temporally structured reinforcement schedules, animals tend to develop temporally structured behavior, and interval timing has been suggested to be accomplished by learning sequences of behavioral states. If this is true, trial to trial fluctuations in behavioral sequences should be predictive of fluctuations in time estimation. We trained rodents in an duration categorization task while continuously monitoring their behavior with a high speed camera. Animals developed highly reproducible behavioral sequences during the interval being timed. Moreover, those sequences were often predictive of perceptual report from early in the trial, providing support to the idea that animals may use learned behavioral patterns to estimate the duration of time intervals. To better resolve the issue, we propose that continuous and simultaneous behavioral and neural monitoring will enable identification of neural activity related to time perception that is not explained by ongoing behavior. PMID:24672473

  13. Projected Duration of the Sea-Ice-Free Season in the Future Alaskan Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, M.; Overland, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    The change in the Arctic climate is fast and broad. Among many changes that have been observed, the reduction of sea ice coverage has been one of the most significant factors. Continued reduction in sea ice cover will probably result in longer open water duration, which is important for the shipping industry, marine mammals as well as other component of the local ecosystem. In this study we are to assess future sea ice conditions, particularly the length of open water duration in the Alaskan Arctic over the next few decades using the latest coupled climate models (CMIP5). The Alaskan Arctic, including the Chukchi and the Beaufort Sea, has been a major region of summer sea ice retreat since 2007. Based on the mean of 12 climate models, for the region north of the Bering Strait (70° N), future open-water duration may extend from a current 3-4 months to around five months by 2050. It is about one month shorter along the same latitude over the Beaufort Sea. The difference in the length of ice-free season between the north and the south will remain, but will be smaller in the 21st century compared with current condition. Open-water duration in the Alaskan Arctic expands quickly in these models over the next decades, in contrast to model under-predictions of sea ice loss for the summer minimum over the Arctic wide domain. Uncertainty is generally ±one month estimated from the range of model results. Continued increases in open-water duration over the next two decades will impact regional economic access and potentially alter ecosystems, yet we need to keep in mind that from December through May most of the northern Alaskan Arctic will remain sea ice covered into the second half of the century.

  14. Prediction and validation of hemodialysis duration in acute methanol poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Lachance, Philippe; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Desmeules, Simon; De Serres, Sacha A; Julien, Anne-Sophie; Douville, Pierre; Ghannoum, Marc; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    The duration of hemodialysis (HD) in methanol poisoning (MP) is dependent on the methanol concentration, the operational parameters used during HD, and the presence and severity of metabolic acidosis. However, methanol assays are not easily available, potentially leading to undue extension or premature termination of treatment. Here we provide a prediction model for the duration of high-efficiency HD in MP. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified 71 episodes of MP in 55 individuals who were treated with alcohol dehydrogenase inhibition and HD. Four patients had residual visual abnormality at discharge and only one patient died. In 46 unique episodes of MP with high-efficiency HD the mean methanol elimination half-life (T1/2) during HD was 108 min in women, significantly different from the 129 min in men. In a training set of 28 patients with MP, using the 90th percentile of gender-specific elimination T1/2 (147 min in men and 141 min in women) and a target methanol concentration of 4 mmol/l allowed all cases to reach a safe methanol of under 6 mmol/l. The prediction model was confirmed in a validation set of 18 patients with MP. High-efficiency HD time in hours can be estimated using 3.390 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for women and 3.534 × (Ln (MCi/4)) for men, where MCi is the initial methanol concentration in mmol/l, provided that metabolic acidosis is corrected. PMID:26244924

  15. Radiation exposure predictions for short-duration stay Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Striepe, S A; Nealy, J E; Simonsen, L C

    1992-01-01

    The human radiation environment for several short-duration stay manned Mars missions is predicted using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, which was developed at NASA Langley Research Center. This program provides dose estimates for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large and ordinary solar proton flare events for various amounts of effective spacecraft shielding (both operational and storm shelter thicknesses) and a given time history of the spacecraft's heliocentric position. The results of this study show that most of the missions can survive the most recent large flares (if they were to occur at the missions' perihelion) if a 25 g/cm2 storm shelter is assumed. The dose predictions show that missions during solar minima (when solar flare activity is the lowest) are not necessarily the minimum dose cases, due to increased GCR contribution during this time period. The direct transfer mission studied has slightly lower doses than the outbound Venus swingby mission [on the order of 10-20 centi-Sieverts (cSv) lower], with the greatest dose differences for the assumed worst case scenario (when the large flares occur at perihelion). The GCR dose for a mission can be reduced by having the crew spend some fraction of its day nominally in the storm shelter (other than during flare events). PMID:11538210

  16. Technology's Role in NASA's Future - Duration: 43 minutes.

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA Chief Technologist Bobby Braun talks to NASA managers about the vital role technology research and development will play in NASA's future. Braun discusses how NASA will use new technologies to...

  17. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  18. Predicting the Future of ESL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashworth, Mary

    Influences in the classroom of English as a second language (ESL) are briefly reviewed as a preface to a discussion of the past, present, and future of ESL instruction in Canada. Ten influences on ESL's past are examined in terms of their effects on ESL teachers: international, national, social, political, economic, commercial, media,…

  19. Prediction of future asset prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  20. The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

    2009-07-01

    Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting

  1. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Striepe, Scott A.; Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

    1992-01-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21st century. Both long-fast and minimum energy transfer missions are evaluated, and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the sun. All of the long-fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30 percent less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in significantly lower total doses.

  2. Radiation exposure predictions for long-duration-stay Mars missions

    SciTech Connect

    Striepe, S.A.; Simonsen, L.C.; Nealy, J.E.

    1994-04-01

    In this study, the ionizing radiation environment is estimated, using the Mission Radiation Calculation (MIRACAL) program, for several long-duration-stay Mars missions proposed for early in the 21(sup st) century. Both minimum energy and fast transfer missions are evaluated and their 30-day maximum, annual maximum, and total slab skin and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses are compared. When large flares were included while the astronauts were on the surface, the delivered dose did not significantly contribute to the total dose (less than 4 cSv BFO dose, or 8 percent of the guideline annual limit, for the most energetic event simulated) due to the substantial protection provided by the Martian atmosphere. However, dose delivered by large flares during transit is dependent on vehicle shielding and distance from the Sun. All of the fast transfer missions studied had lower total and annual maximum doses than the corresponding minimum energy transfer missions (on average, 30% less for missions having no large flares and the shielding thicknesses evaluated in this study). For all the missions studied, having the astronauts spend one-third of their day during transit in a 10 g/sq cm storm shelter resulted in an approximate 10% reduction in the total mission dose. 18 refs.

  3. Tracking the Mind during Reading: The Influence of Past, Present, and Future Words on Fixation Durations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kliegl, Reinhold; Nuthmann, Antje; Engbert, Ralf

    2006-01-01

    Reading requires the orchestration of visual, attentional, language-related, and oculomotor processing constraints. This study replicates previous effects of frequency, predictability, and length of fixated words on fixation durations in natural reading and demonstrates new effects of these variables related to 144 sentences. Such evidence for…

  4. Projected future duration of the sea-ice-free season in the Alaskan Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Muyin; Overland, James E.

    2015-08-01

    Global warming and continued reduction in sea ice cover will result in longer open water duration in the Arctic, which is important for the shipping industry, marine mammals, and other components of the regional ecosystem. In this study we assess the length of open water duration in the Alaskan Arctic over the next few decades using the set of latest coupled climate models (CMIP5). The Alaskan Arctic, including the Chukchi and the Beaufort Sea, has been a major region of summer sea ice retreat since 2007. Thirty five climate models from CMIP5 are evaluated and twelve are selected for composite projections based on their historical simulation performance. In the regions north of the Bering Strait (north of 70° N), future open-water duration shifts from a current 3-4 months to a projected near 5 months by 2040 based on the mean of the twelve selected climate models. There is considerable north-south gradient in projected durations. Open water duration is about 1 month shorter along the same latitudes in the Beaufort Sea compared with that in the Chukchi Sea. Uncertainty is generally ±1 month estimated from the range of model results. Open-water duration in the Alaskan Arctic expands quickly in these models over the next decades which will impact regional economic access and potentially alter ecosystems. Yet the northern Alaskan Arctic from January through May will remain sea ice covered into the second half of the century due to normal lack of sunlight.

  5. Day-to-day Variability in Nap Duration Predicts Medical Morbidity in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Dautovich, Natalie D.; Kay, Daniel B.; Perlis, Michael L.; Dzierzewski, Joseph M.; Rowe, Meredeth A.; McCrae, Christina S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The objectives for the present study were to: 1) examine within-person variability of nap duration and 2) assess how variability in nap duration is related to the number of health conditions in a sample of older adults. For highly variable behaviors such as sleep, it is important to consider fluctuations within the person instead of solely comparing averages of behaviors across persons. Methods Data were drawn from a previous study examining sleep in 103 community-dwelling older adults. Subjective estimates of napping behavior were obtained from sleep diaries and objective estimates of napping behavior were obtained using actigraphy. Both measures were collected for 14 consecutive days. The sampled data were aggregated in terms of: 1) average daily time spent napping and 2) average within-person fluctuations in daily nap duration. The health measure consisted of the number of self-reported health conditions. Results Both the objective and subjective measures revealed that there was considerable day-to-day fluctuation in nap duration and that variability in nap duration, not mean duration, uniquely predicted the number of health conditions, [b=.03, b*=.26, t(100)= 2.71, p = .01]. Conclusions Duration of napping in the elderly is a highly variable behavior, fluctuating as much within- as between-person. Further, variability in nap duration from day-to-day is predictive of greater medical morbidity, suggesting that clinicians should assess for inconsistencies in nap behavior in addition to duration, frequency, and timing. PMID:22369491

  6. Predicting future violence among individuals with psychopathy.

    PubMed

    Coid, Jeremy W; Ullrich, Simone; Kallis, Constantinos

    2013-11-01

    Structured risk assessment aims to help clinicians classify offenders according to likelihood of future violent and criminal behaviour. We investigated how confident clinicians can be using three commonly used instruments (HCR-20, VRAG, OGRS-II) in individuals with different diagnoses. Moderate to good predictive accuracy for future violence was achieved for released prisoners with no mental disorder, low to moderate for clinical syndromes and personality disorder, but accuracy was no better than chance for individuals with psychopathy. Comprehensive diagnostic assessment should precede an assessment of risk. Risk assessment instruments cannot be relied upon when managing public risk from individuals with psychopathy. PMID:24072757

  7. Timing Rhythms: Perceived Duration Increases with a Predictable Temporal Structure of Short Interval Fillers

    PubMed Central

    Horr, Ninja K.; Di Luca, Massimiliano

    2015-01-01

    Variations in the temporal structure of an interval can lead to remarkable differences in perceived duration. For example, it has previously been shown that isochronous intervals, that is, intervals filled with temporally regular stimuli, are perceived to last longer than intervals left empty or filled with randomly timed stimuli. Characterizing the extent of such distortions is crucial to understanding how duration perception works. One account to explain effects of temporal structure is a non-linear accumulator-counter mechanism reset at the beginning of every subinterval. An alternative explanation based on entrainment to regular stimulation posits that the neural response to each filler stimulus in an isochronous sequence is amplified and a higher neural response may lead to an overestimation of duration. If entrainment is the key that generates response amplification and the distortions in perceived duration, then any form of predictability in the temporal structure of interval fillers should lead to the perception of an interval that lasts longer than a randomly filled one. The present experiments confirm that intervals filled with fully predictable rhythmically grouped stimuli lead to longer perceived duration than anisochronous intervals. No general over- or underestimation is registered for rhythmically grouped compared to isochronous intervals. However, we find that the number of stimuli in each group composing the rhythm also influences perceived duration. Implications of these findings for a non-linear clock model as well as a neural response magnitude account of perceived duration are discussed. PMID:26474047

  8. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  9. Plasma predictions: past, present and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowke, J. J.

    2013-04-01

    Tools for predictions of plasma properties in the last 50 years have evolved from largely analytic representations, for example using Bessel functions, to the present methods, which extensively use computers. Furthermore, there is a marked unification of predictive capabilities, spanning the use of basic atomic and molecular data such as electron-atom cross-sections, leading to the calculation of transport coefficients such as thermal and electrical conductivities and finally to detailed predictions of plasma processing, e.g. the influence of fluxes on weld profiles in arc welding. Present calculations in the range of different directions are outlined, all likely to lead to new developments in the future. The examples are (1) predictions spanning collisionless to collision-dominated plasmas—such as are required for understanding the role of cathode voltages of non-thermionic cathodes. (2) Plasma chemistry predictions—such as are required to understand electrical breakdown in air to include the role of nitrogen metastables. (3) Predictions of the interactions of ion flow and insulating surfaces—such as could explain the existence of ball lightning. Finally, (4) the greater consideration of magnetic forces on astrophysical plasmas, which may explain the regular properties of the solar system.

  10. Surgical Duration Estimation via Data Mining and Predictive Modeling: A Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, N.; Sir, M.Y.; Jankowski, C.J.; Pasupathy, K.S.

    2015-01-01

    Operating rooms (ORs) are one of the most expensive and profitable resources within a hospital system. OR managers strive to utilize these resources in the best possible manner. Traditionally, surgery durations are estimated using a moving average adjusted by the scheduler (adjusted system prediction or ASP). Other methods based on distributions, regression and data mining have also been proposed. To overcome difficulties with numerous procedure types and lack of sufficient sample size, and avoid distributional assumptions, the main objective is to develop a hybrid method of duration prediction and demonstrate using a case study. PMID:26958199

  11. Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heller, Rene; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  12. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  13. Predictions of Flow Duration Curve Shifts Due to Anthropogenic and Climatic Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, N. F.; Kroll, C. N.; Endreny, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    Methods are needed to understand and predict streamflows in systems undergoing anthropogenic and climatic alteration. This study is motivated by a need to develop methods to accurately estimate historical and future flow regimes of the Delaware River to inform management decisions for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon). Many streamflow regimes in this system have undergone substantial alteration within the past 100 years. Here, flow duration curves (FDCs), a common hydrologic tool used to assess flow regimes, are created and examined at 145 Delaware River Basin catchments. These catchments have experienced various hydrologic alterations, including land use changes, water withdrawals, and river regulation due to dams and reservoirs. Linear regression models are developed for various percentile flows across a FDC. These models use watershed characteristics that describe observed flow regimes in altered as well as unaltered systems. The characteristics that have the most significant influence on the shape of the FDCs are then identified and isolated as descriptors of the alteration. Once these models are developed to include these key variables, given a specific alteration (e.g. fresh water withdrawals, change in annual precipitation, etc.), a new flow regime can be estimated. Preliminary results indicate that certain watershed characteristics related to alteration (e.g. magnitude of land fragmentation, water withdrawals, hydrologic disturbance index) are significant in our models and influence FDC patterns. The results of this study may prove to have broader applications in regards to water resources management as the methods developed here may serve as a predictive tool as human interference and climatic changes continue to alter flow regimes.

  14. Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

    PubMed

    Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

    2016-09-01

    During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations. PMID:27627736

  15. Effects of movement distance, duration, velocity, and type on action prediction in 12-month-olds.

    PubMed

    Daum, Moritz M; Gampe, Anja; Wronski, Caroline; Attig, Manja

    2016-05-01

    The goal of the present study was to test the influence of the spatial and temporal dynamics of observed manual actions on infants' action prediction. Twelve-month-old infants were presented with reach-and-transport actions performed by a human agent. Movement distance, duration, and - resulting from the two - movement velocity were systematically varied. Action prediction was measured via the latency of gaze arrival at target in relation to agent's hand. The results showed a general effect of all parameters on the infants' perception of goal-directed actions: Infants were more likely to predict the action goal the longer the movement distance was, the longer the movement duration was, and the slower the movement velocity was. In addition, they were more likely to predict the goal of a reaching than a transport action. The present findings extent previous findings by showing that infants are not only sensitive to differences in distances, durations, and velocities at early age but that these factors have a strong impact on the prediction of the goal of observed actions. PMID:27175908

  16. Differences in motor imagery time when predicting task duration in alpine skiers and equestrian riders.

    PubMed

    Louis, Magali; Collet, Christian; Champely, Stéphane; Guillot, Aymeric

    2012-03-01

    Athletes' ability to use motor imagery (MI) to predict the speed at which they could perform a motor sequence has received little attention. In this study, 21 alpine skiers and 16 equestrian riders performed MI based on a prediction of actual performance time (a) after the course inspection, (b) before the start, and (c) after the actual performance. MI and physical times were similar in expert skiers during each imagery session, while novice skiers and novice and expert riders underestimated the actual course duration. These findings provide evidence that the temporal accuracy of an imagery task prediction depends on the performer's expertise level and characteristics of the motor skill. PMID:22428415

  17. Duration of Early Maternal Separation and Prediction of Schizotypal Symptoms from Early Adolescence to Midlife

    PubMed Central

    Anglin, Deidre M.; Cohen, Patricia R.; Chen, Henian

    2008-01-01

    Early childhood experiences influence the capacity for healthy social and emotional development. The present study uses longitudinal data to determine whether early maternal separation predicted the subsequent development of schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) symptoms assessed repeatedly from early adolescence over the following 20 years. Within this community sample (N=766), multilevel linear regression analyses revealed the duration of separation from mother in the first 2 years of life predicted elevated SPD symptoms. This relationship was specific to children with mother-reported early angry emotional behavior. These results provide support for the role of early childhood psychosocial risk factors in the development of subsequent schizophrenia spectrum symptoms in emotionally vulnerable children. PMID:18407465

  18. Predictability Effects on Durations of Content and Function Words in Conversational English

    SciTech Connect

    Bell, Alan; Brenier, Jason; Gregory, Michelle L.; girand, cynthia; Jurafsky, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Content and function word duration are affected differently by their frequency and predictability. Regression analyses of conversational speech show that content words are shorter when they are more frequent, but function words are not. Repeated content words are shorter, but function words are not. Furthermore, function words have shorter pronunciations, after controlling for frequency and predictability. both content and function words are strongly affected by predictability from the word following them, and only very frequent function words show sensitivity to predictability from the preceding word. The results support the view that content and function words are accessed by different production mechanisms. We argue that words’ form differences due to frequency or repetition stem from their faster or slower lexical access, mediated by a general mechanism that coordinates the pace of higher-level planning and the execution of the articulatory plan.

  19. Applications Determine the Best Model to Predict Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flow duration curves (FDCs) are an important tool for watershed management and their prediction in ungauged catchments is a challenging problem. Selecting the most appropriate model for prediction the FDC is itself a challenge that determines how theoretical improvements in prediction are transferred into engineering practice. Available performance metrics (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient, error on flow moments) typically consider the aggregated ability of the model to predict all streamflow quantiles. These metrics may be inappropriate for model selection in practice because watershed management decisions are typically driven by a limited number of streamflow quantiles that may be poorly represented by an aggregate performance metric. As an illustrative case study, the performance of three distinct FDC prediction approaches -- graphical, statistical and process-based -- are compared for ungauged streams in Nepal. The practical application of these predictions is to inform the design of run-of-river hydropower plants. The process-based approach provides the best prediction of the observed flow distribution and results in significantly higher Nash coefficients. However, the graphical approach provides the best prediction of the flow quantiles that are most relevant for hydropower design and reduces the design error caused by streamflow estimation. To assist in an application driven model selection process, we propose a novel model selection framework.

  20. Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    1997-01-01

    Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

  1. Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Bradley Z.; Choler, Philippe; Renaud, Julien; Dedieu, Jean-Pierre; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Quantifying relationships between snow cover duration and plant community properties remains an important challenge in alpine ecology. We developed a method to estimate spatial variation in energy availability in the context of a topographically complex, high-elevation watershed, which we used to test the explanatory power of environmental gradients both with and without snow cover in relation to taxonomic and functional plant diversity. Methods We mapped snow cover at 15 m resolution using Landsat imagery for five recent years and fitted a generalized additive model (GAM) for each year linking snow to time and topography. Predicted snow cover maps were combined with air temperature and solar radiation at daily resolution, summed for each year and averaged across years. Equivalent growing season energy gradients were also estimated without accounting for snow cover duration. Relationships were tested between environmental gradients and diversity metrics measured for 100 plots (including species richness, community weighted mean traits, functional diversity and hyperspectral estimates of canopy chlorophyll content). Key Results Accounting for snow cover in environmental variables consistently led to improved predictive power as well as more ecologically meaningful characterizations of plant diversity. Model parameters differed significantly when fitted with and without snow cover. Filtering solar radiation with snow as compared to without led to an average gain in R2 of 0.26 and also reversed slope direction to more intuitive relationships for several diversity metrics. Conclusions We show that in alpine environments, high-resolution data on snow cover duration are pivotal for capturing the spatial heterogeneity of both taxonomic and functional diversity. The use of climate variables without consideration of snow cover can lead to erroneous predictions of plant diversity. Our results further indicate that studies seeking to predict the response

  2. Geostatistical prediction of flow-duration curves in an index-flow framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

    2014-05-01

    An empirical period-of-record Flow-Duration Curve (FDC) describes the percentage of time (duration) in which a given streamflow was equaled or exceeded over an historical period of time. FDCs have always attracted a great deal of interest in engineering applications because of their ability to provide a simple yet comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability of streamflows in a river basin, from floods to low-flows. Nevertheless, in many practical applications one has to construct FDC in basins that are ungauged or where very few observations are available. We present in this study an application strategy of Topological kriging (or Top-kriging), which makes the geostatistical procedure capable of predicting flow-duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged catchments. Previous applications of Top-kriging mainly focused on the prediction of point streamflow indices (e.g. flood quantiles, low-flow indices, etc.). In this study Top-kriging is used to predict FDCs in ungauged sites as a weighted average of standardised empirical FDCs through the traditional linear-weighting scheme of kriging methods. Our study focuses on the prediction of FDCs for 18 unregulated catchments located in Central Italy, for which daily streamflow series with length from 5 to 40 years are available, together with information on climate referring to the same time-span of each daily streamflow sequence. Empirical FDCs are standardised by a reference index-flow value (i.e. mean annual flow, or mean annual precipitation times the catchment drainage area) and the overall deviation of the curves from this reference value is then used for expressing the hydrological similarity between catchments and for deriving the geostatistical weights. We performed an extensive leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify the accuracy of the proposed technique, and to compare it to traditional regionalisation models that were recently developed for the same study region. The cross-validation points

  3. Consistent Predictions of Future Forest Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We examined empirical and model based estimates of current and future forest mortality of conifers in the northern hemisphere. Consistent water potential thresholds were found that resulted in mortality of our case study species, pinon pine and one-seed juniper. Extending these results with IPCC climate scenarios suggests that most existing trees in this region (SW USA) will be dead by 2050. Further, independent estimates of future mortality for the entire coniferous biome suggest widespread mortality by 2100. The validity and assumptions and implications of these results are discussed.

  4. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  5. Spatio-temporal variation in the incubation duration and sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings: implication for future management.

    PubMed

    dei Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Santos, Alexsandro S; Soares, Luciano S; Lopez, Gustave G; Godfrey, Matthew H; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; Fuentes, Mariana M P B

    2014-08-01

    Climate change poses a unique threat to species with temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), such as marine turtles, where increases in temperature can result in extreme sex ratio biases. Knowledge of the primary sex ratio of populations with TSD is key for providing a baseline to inform management strategies and to accurately predict how future climate changes may affect turtle populations. However, there is a lack of robust data on offspring sex ratio at appropriate temporal and spatial scales to inform management decisions. To address this, we estimate the primary sex ratio of hawksbill hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, from incubation duration of 5514 in situ nests from 10 nesting beaches from two regions in Brazil over the last 27 years. A strong female bias was estimated in all beaches, with 96% and 89% average female sex ratios produced in Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). Both inter-annual (BA, 88 to 99%; RN, 75 to 96% female) and inter-beach (BA, 92% to 97%; RN, 81% to 92% female) variability in mean offspring sex ratio was observed. These findings will guide management decisions in Brazil and provide further evidence of highly female-skew sex ratios in hawksbill turtles. PMID:25086976

  6. Special Education Issues, Trends, and Future Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siegel, Janna

    This paper identifies and discusses major issues and trends in special education in the United States, including implications of these trends for future developments. Trends are discussed for the following areas: (1) philosophy and law (a communitarian philosophy is emerging); (2) labels and terminology (a trend toward declassification); (3)…

  7. "Megatrends" and Knowledge Gaps: Future Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaziano, Cecilie

    The distribution of knowledge in society tends to parallel the distribution of other social and economic resources. Currently four major socioeconomic trends point not only to widened knowledge gaps in the future but also to greater divisions between higher and lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups. First, a long-term trend toward a more…

  8. The UT 7/8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event and Future Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benecchi, S. D.; Noll, K. S.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W. M.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; Chanover, N.

    2013-01-01

    A superior mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 h on UT 7/8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four different telescope facilities; it started approximately 1.5 h earlier than anticipated, the duration was approximately 9.5 h (about 10% longer than predicted), and was slightly less deep than predicted. It is the first full event observed for a comparably sized binary Kuiper Belt object. We provide predictions for future events refined by this and other partial mutual event observations obtained since the mutual event season began.

  9. Forest tree seedlings may suffer from predicted future winters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domisch, Timo; Repo, Tapani; Martz, Françoise; Rautio, Pasi

    2016-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased precipitation and air temperatures, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter, spring and autumn. However, soil temperatures are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the insulating snow cover. Warm periods during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles and flooding, which again can result in the formation of ice layers, affecting soil properties, soil gas concentrations and the survival of tree seedlings. We conducted two laboratory experiments of 20 weeks duration each, simulating winter, spring and early summer, and imposed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) or downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) seedlings to four different winter scenarios: (1) ambient snow cover, (2) compressed snow and ice encasement, (3) frozen flood and (4) no snow. We estimated the stress that the seedlings experienced by means of gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence and determining above- and belowground biomass and carbohydrate contents, as well as measuring soil oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations. The seedlings in the snow and compressed snow treatments survived until the end of the experiments, although only those covered with an ambient snow cover showed normal height growth and typical carbohydrate contents. The seedlings in the other treatments showed symptoms of dieback already during early spring and had almost completely died at the end of the experiment. Our results suggest the crucial significance of the protective snow cover, and that a missing soil cover or soil hypoxia and anoxia during winter can be lethal for seedlings, and that respiratory losses and winter desiccation of aboveground organs can further lead to the death of tree seedlings.

  10. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  11. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Cai, Ting; Mi, Zhongyuan; Georgopoulos, Panos

    2015-02-01

    Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5%-30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0-6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations.

  12. Predicting Onset and Duration of Airborne Allergenic Pollen Season in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Cai, Ting; Mi, Zhongyuan; Georgopoulos, Panos

    2014-01-01

    Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5% to 30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994–2010 are mostly within 0 to 6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations. PMID:25620875

  13. Predicting future discoveries from current scientific literature.

    PubMed

    Petrič, Ingrid; Cestnik, Bojan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge discovery in biomedicine is a time-consuming process starting from the basic research, through preclinical testing, towards possible clinical applications. Crossing of conceptual boundaries is often needed for groundbreaking biomedical research that generates highly inventive discoveries. We demonstrate the ability of a creative literature mining method to advance valuable new discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. When emerging ideas from scientific literature are put together as fragments of knowledge in a systematic way, they may lead to original, sometimes surprising, research findings. If enough scientific evidence is already published for the association of such findings, they can be considered as scientific hypotheses. In this chapter, we describe a method for the computer-aided generation of such hypotheses based on the existing scientific literature. Our literature-based discovery of NF-kappaB with its possible connections to autism was recently approved by scientific community, which confirms the ability of our literature mining methodology to accelerate future discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. PMID:24788267

  14. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. The researchers from MSFC and NSSTC's solar physics group develop instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic field and the impact it has on Earth's space environment. This photograph shows the Solar Vector Magnetograph and Dr. Mona Hagyard of MSFC, the director of the observatory who leads the development, operation and research program of the Solar Vector Magnetograph.

  15. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and university scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are watching the Sun in an effort to better predict space weather - blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun that impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. Filled by charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, the spherical comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's surface in the sunward direction and more in other directions. This image illustrates the Sun-Earth cornection. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. By using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at MSFC, scientists are learning what signs to look for as indicators of potential severe space weather.

  16. Prediction of Solar Storms in Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar observation facility at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), scientists from the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, Alabama, are monitoring the explosive potential of magnetic areas of the Sun. This effort could someday lead to better prediction of severe space weather, a phenomenon that occurs when blasts of particles and magnetic fields from the Sun impact the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth. When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, blast through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at speeds of thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be harmful to communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly. On the ground, magnetic storms wrought by these solar particles can knock out electric power. Photographed are a group of contributing researchers in front of the Solar Vector Magnetograph at MSFC. The researchers are part of NSSTC's solar physics group, which develops instruments for measuring magnetic fields on the Sun. With these instruments, the group studies the origin, structure, and evolution of the solar magnetic fields and the impact they have on Earth's space environment.

  17. Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohba, M.; Watanabe, M.

    2012-04-01

    Warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, while La Niña tends to persist for up to two years. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about eight months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as spring barriers) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence counteract the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of our CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

  18. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  19. On the predictability of future impact in science.

    PubMed

    Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K; Petersen, Alexander M; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

    2013-01-01

    Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their "predictive power". Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

  20. On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

    PubMed Central

    Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K.; Petersen, Alexander M.; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

    2013-01-01

    Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their “predictive power”. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

  1. Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.; Farassat, F.

    1992-01-01

    The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

  2. Future radiation measurements in low Earth orbit. [long duration exposure facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The first Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission has demonstrated the value of the LDEF concept for deep surveys of the space radiation environment. This paper will survey the types of measurements that could be done on a second LDEF mission. One of the most surprising discoveries on LDEF1 was the Be-7 that was found imbedded on the windward surface. LDEF2 could follow up on this discovery and search for evidence of other cosmogenic nuclei. Another experiment could be designed to investigate the presence of energetic heavy ions observed on LDEF1. The relative abundance of rare earths can also be used to search for evidence that cosmic rays accelerate in episodes which occur throughout their propagation in the stellar medium. Further investigations of radiation effects could also be undertaken. A second LDEF mission also offers the opportunity for new investigations such as measurements of cosmic ray differential energy spectrum to ultrahigh energies. These and other ideas will be discussed.

  3. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  4. Cerebellar sequencing: a trick for predicting the future.

    PubMed

    Leggio, M; Molinari, M

    2015-02-01

    "Looking into the future" well depicts one of the most significant concepts in cognitive neuroscience: the brain is constantly predicting future events. Such directedness toward the future has been recognized to be relevant to and beneficial for many aspects of information processing in humans, such as perception, motor and cognitive control, decision-making, theory of mind, and other cognitive processes. Because one of the most adaptive characteristics of the brain is to correct errors, the ability to look into the future represents the best chance to avoid repeating errors. Within the structures that constitute the "predictive brain," the cerebellum has been proposed to have a central function, based on its ability to generate internal models. We suggested that "sequence detection" is the operational mode of the cerebellum in predictive processing. According to this hypothesis, the cerebellum detects and simulates repetitive patterns of temporally or spatially structured events and generates internal models that can be used to make predictions. Consequently, we demonstrate that the cerebellum recognizes serial events as a sequence, detects a sequence violation, and successfully reconstructs the correct sequence of events. Thus, we hypothesize that pattern detection and prediction and processing of anticipation are cerebellum-specific functions within the brain and that the sequence detection hypothesis links the multifarious impairments that are reported in patients with cerebellar damage. We propose that this cerebellar operational mode can advance our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms in various clinical conditions, such as schizophrenia and autism. PMID:25331541

  5. Underestimating the Duration of Future Events: Memory Incorrectly Used or Memory Bias?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Michael M.; Christenfeld, Nicholas J. S.; McKenzie, Craig R. M.

    2005-01-01

    People frequently underestimate how long it will take them to complete a task. The prevailing view is that during the prediction process, people incorrectly use their memories of how long similar tasks have taken in the past because they take an overly optimistic outlook. A variety of evidence is reviewed in this article that points to a…

  6. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  7. The Future of Seizure Prediction and Intervention: Closing the loop

    PubMed Central

    Nagaraj, Vivek; Lee, Steven; Krook-Magnuson, Esther; Soltesz, Ivan; Benquet, Pascal; Irazoqui, Pedro; Netoff, Theoden

    2014-01-01

    The ultimate goal of epilepsy therapies is to provide seizure control for all patients while eliminating side effects. Improved specificity of intervention through on-demand approaches may overcome many of the limitations of current intervention strategies. This article reviews progress in seizure prediction and detection, potential new therapies to provide improved specificity, and devices to achieve these ends. Specifically, we discuss 1) potential signal modalities and algorithms for seizure detection and prediction, 2) closed-loop intervention approaches, and 3) hardware for implementing these algorithms and interventions. Seizure prediction and therapies maximize efficacy while minimizing side-effects through improved specificity may represent the future of epilepsy treatments. PMID:26035672

  8. Future of seizure prediction and intervention: closing the loop.

    PubMed

    Nagaraj, Vivek; Lee, Steven T; Krook-Magnuson, Esther; Soltesz, Ivan; Benquet, Pascal; Irazoqui, Pedro P; Netoff, Theoden I

    2015-06-01

    The ultimate goal of epilepsy therapies is to provide seizure control for all patients while eliminating side effects. Improved specificity of intervention through on-demand approaches may overcome many of the limitations of current intervention strategies. This article reviews the progress in seizure prediction and detection, potential new therapies to provide improved specificity, and devices to achieve these ends. Specifically, we discuss (1) potential signal modalities and algorithms for seizure detection and prediction, (2) closed-loop intervention approaches, and (3) hardware for implementing these algorithms and interventions. Seizure prediction and therapies maximize efficacy, whereas minimizing side effects through improved specificity may represent the future of epilepsy treatments. PMID:26035672

  9. Duration of oral contraceptive use predicts women's initial and subsequent subjective responses to sexual stimuli.

    PubMed

    Renfro, Kaytlin J; Rupp, Heather; Wallen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Recent work suggests that a woman's hormonal state when first exposed to visual sexual stimuli (VSS) modulates her initial and subsequent responses to VSS. The present study investigated whether women's initial hormonal state was related to their subjective ratings of VSS, and whether this relationship differed with VSS content. We reanalyzed previously collected data from 14 naturally cycling (NC) women and 14 women taking oral contraceptives (OCs), who subjectively rated VSS at three hormonal time-points. NC women's ratings of 216 unique sexual images were collected during the menstrual, periovulatory, and luteal phases of their menstrual cycles, and OC women's ratings were collected at comparable time-points across their pill-cycles. NC women's initial hormonal state was not related to their ratings of VSS. OC women's initial hormonal state predicted their ratings of VSS with minimal contextual information and of images depicting female-to-male oral sex. Specifically, women who entered the study in the third week of their pill-cycle (OC-3 women) rated such images as less attractive at all testing sessions than did all other women. OC-3 women were also the only women to rate decontextualized VSS as unattractive at all testing sessions. These results corroborate previous studies in which women's initial hormonal state was found to predict subsequent interest in sexual stimuli. Future work, with larger samples, should more directly investigate whether OC-3 women's negative assessment of specific types of VSS reflects a reaction to the laboratory environment or a broader mechanism, wherein OC women's sexual interests decrease late in their pill-cycle. PMID:26204805

  10. Speech Technology II: Future Software and Hardware Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wetzel, Keith

    1991-01-01

    This continuation of an earlier article that described computer-based speech recognition products focuses on future hardware and software predictions. Highlights include effects that speech input/output could have on teaching language arts in elementary and secondary schools; changes in thought processing factors; use by the physically…

  11. A Positive Domestic Violence Screen Predicts Future Domestic Violence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houry, Debra; Feldhaus, Kim; Peery, Benjamin; Abbott, Jean; Lowenstein, Steven R.; al-Bataa-de-Montero, Sameerah; Levine, Saul

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine if a brief screen for domestic violence (DV) predicts future violence. We conducted a cohort study of adult women who presented to an inner-city emergency department during an 8-week study period. Participants were screened for DV using the Partner Violence Screen (PVS). At 4 months, follow-up telephone…

  12. Prediction of the future number of wells in production

    SciTech Connect

    Coca, B.P.

    1981-01-01

    A method to predict the number of wells that will continue producing at a certain date in the future is presented. The method is applicable to reservoirs of the depletion type and is based on the survival probability concept. This is useful when forecasting by empirical methods. An example of a field in primary production is presented.

  13. Saving for the future self: Neural measures of future self-continuity predict temporal discounting

    PubMed Central

    Wimmer, G. Elliott; Knutson, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Despite increases in the human life span, people have not increased their rate of saving. In a phenomenon known as ‘temporal discounting’, people value immediate gains over future gains. According to a future self-continuity hypothesis, individuals perceive and treat the future self differently from the present self, and so might fail to save for their future. Neuroimaging offers a novel means of testing this hypothesis, since previous research indicates that self- vs other-judgments elicit activation in the rostral anterior cingulate (rACC). Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we predicted and found not only individual differences in rACC activation while rating the current vs future self, but also that individual differences in current vs future self activation predicted temporal discounting assessed behaviorally a week after scanning. In addition to supporting the future self-continuity hypothesis, these findings hold implications for significant financial decisions, such as choosing whether to save for the future or spend in the present. PMID:19047075

  14. Angular velocity: a new method to improve prediction of ventricular fibrillation duration.

    PubMed

    Sherman, Lawrence D; Flagg, Aron; Callaway, Clifton W; Menegazzi, James J; Hsieh, Margaret

    2004-01-01

    Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a leading cause of sudden death. Electrical defibrillation is the primary modality of treatment, but evidence is accumulating that its use in the late stage of VF prior to providing ventilation, chest compressions and the administration of appropriate medication is detrimental. In VF of <5 min duration a 'shock first' strategy is effective. In VF of 5> min duration a 'perfuse first' approach is more effective. Because of the difficulty in determining the duration of VF in the clinical setting we have sought to develop method which analyze 5 s intervals of VF waveform and quickly provide an estimate of duration. Such methods would be useful in directing clinical interventions. Using methods of nonlinear dynamics and fractal geometry we have previously derived a quantitative measure of VF duration, namely the scaling exponent (ScE). In this study we report on a novel method also based on nonlinear dynamics, the angular velocity (AV). By constructing a flat, circular disk-shaped structure in a three-dimensional phase space and measuring the velocity of rotation of the position vector over time, a statistic is developed which rises from 58 rad/s at 1 min to 79 rad/s at 4 min and then decreases in a linear manner to 32 rad/s at 12.5 min. Using ScE and AV probability density estimated, VF of <5 min duration can be identified with 90% sensitivity on the basis of a single 5 s recording of the waveform. The combination of ScE and AV can be used in developing strategies for the treatment of VF during the different clinical phases of VF. PMID:15002486

  15. The ability of adolescents to predict future outcome. Part II: Therapeutic enhancement of predictive skills.

    PubMed

    Trad, P V

    1993-01-01

    The assertion of autonomy, a developmental challenge of adolescence, helps predict the teenager's attitude toward pregnancy and parenthood. Significantly, the ability to predict the future relationship with the infant has direct implications for the achievement of an adaptive outcome. Indeed, the interpersonal outcome of the parent-infant relationship may be predicted by the adolescent's behaviors with her infant. A prospective orientation may offer an important vantage point for improving this relationship. For example, the ability to predict future outcome helps identify potential conflict, such as abuse. When applying a prospective approach during the prenatal period, the adolescent's past relationship with her own mother and her motivations for becoming a parent will be explored in order to predict the future dyadic relationship. For adolescents who are already parents, an assessment of the dyad's contemporaneous interaction may further predict future interpersonal exchange. Moreover, orienting the adolescent parent toward the future may identify areas of potential conflict, as well as foster more adaptive dyadic exchange. PMID:8266833

  16. Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

    2013-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

  17. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    PubMed

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent. PMID:27368767

  18. Advancing the Oxygen Generation Assembly Design to Increase Reliability and Reduce Costs for a Future Long Duration Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takada, Kevin C.; Ghariani, Ahmed E.; Van Keuren,

    2015-01-01

    The state-of-the-art Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) has been reliably producing breathing oxygen for the crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) for over eight years. Lessons learned from operating the ISS OGA have led to proposing incremental improvements to advance the baseline design for use in a future long duration mission. These improvements are intended to reduce system weight, crew maintenance time and resupply mass from Earth while increasing reliability. The proposed improvements include replacing the cell stack membrane material, deleting the nitrogen purge equipment, replacing the hydrogen sensors, deleting the wastewater interface, replacing the hydrogen dome and redesigning the cell stack power supply. The development work to date will be discussed and forward work will be outlined. Additionally, a redesigned system architecture will be proposed.

  19. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

    2012-01-01

    Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

  20. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, Jing; Mahmassani, Hani S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  1. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    PubMed Central

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  2. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  3. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    PubMed

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

  4. Evolving networks-Using past structure to predict the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Ke-ke; Yan, Wei-sheng; Small, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies on link prediction have focused on using common neighbors to predict the existence of links between pairs of nodes. More broadly, research into the structural properties of evolving temporal networks and temporal link prediction methods have recently attracted increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, we examine the use of links between a pair of nodes to predict their common neighbors and analyze the relationship between the weight and the structure in static networks, evolving networks, and in the corresponding randomized networks. We propose both new unweighted and weighted prediction methods and use six kinds of real networks to test our algorithms. In unweighted networks, we find that if a pair of nodes connect to each other in the current network, they will have a higher probability to connect common nodes both in the current and the future networks-and the probability will decrease with the increase of the number of neighbors. Furthermore, we find that the original networks have their particular structure and statistical characteristics which benefit link prediction. In weighted networks, the prediction algorithm performance of networks which are dominated by human factors decrease with the decrease of weight and are in general better in static networks. Furthermore, we find that geographical position and link weight both have significant influence on the transport network. Moreover, the evolving financial network has the lowest predictability. In addition, we find that the structure of non-social networks has more robustness than social networks. The structure of engineering networks has both best predictability and also robustness.

  5. Differences in Motor Imagery Time when Predicting Task Duration in Alpine Skiers and Equestrian Riders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Louis, Magali; Collet, Christian; Champely, Stephane; Guillot, Aymeric

    2012-01-01

    Athletes' ability to use motor imagery (MI) to predict the speed at which they could perform a motor sequence has received little attention. In this study, 21 alpine skiers and 16 equestrian riders performed MI based on a prediction of actual performance time (a) after the course inspection, (b) before the start, and (c) after the actual…

  6. Prediction of impact force and duration during low velocity impact on circular composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivakumar, K. N.; Elber, W.; Illg, W.

    1983-01-01

    Two simple and improved models--energy-balance and spring-mass--were developed to calculate impact force and duration during low velocity impact of circular composite plates. Both models include the contact deformation of the plate and the impactor as well as bending, transverse shear, and membrane deformations of the plate. The plate was transversely isotropic graphite/epoxy composite laminate and the impactor was a steel sphere. Calculated impact forces from the two analyses agreed with each other. The analyses were verified by comparing the results with reported test data.

  7. TSH receptor antibodies for confirming the diagnosis and prediction of remission duration, in newly diagnosed Graves' disease patients.

    PubMed

    Aleksić, Aleksandar; Aleksić, Zeljka; Stojanović, Miodrag

    2009-01-01

    Antibodies to TSH receptors (TRAb) have great pathogenetic importance in the development and maintenance of hyperthyroidism in Graves' disease (GD). Measurement of their serum level could be of diagnostic and prognostic importance in autoimmune hyperthyroidism and in monitoring the efficiency of thyrosuppressive drug (TSD) treatment in GD. The aim of our study was to assess the sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the TRAb assay in confirming the diagnosis and to define its prognostic value for remission duration in GD patients at the end of TSD treatment with thionamide derivatives, propylthiouracil or methimazole. We studied 99 patients, 65 female, 34 male, 18-76 years old; 52 GD patients and 47 as control group. We have studied frequency of relapses and remission duration in GD patients by a 2nd generation serum TRAb commercial kit. Our results showed that, the SN, SP, PPV and NPV of the TRAb test were 100%, 97%, 98% and 100%, respectively. Remission duration after TSD treatment was longer and relapses were fewer in GD patients with lower levels of TRAb before (P<0.01) and at the end of TSD treatment (P<0.05). In conclusion, our results suggest that serum TRAb is very sensitive and specific for confirming the diagnosis of GD. TRAb levels at the beginning of TSD treatment, above 5 IU/L gives 18% greater chance, and above 15 IU/L, 36% greater chance for remission, shorter than 6 months. PMID:19675869

  8. NAQ's 40th Birthday Nursing: Predictions From the Past; Predictions for the Future, Parts I & II.

    PubMed

    McClure, Margaret L; Batcheller, Joyce

    2016-01-01

    The following two articles relate to Nursing's past and future, described through a series of predictions made by one of Nursing's great leaders Margaret L. McClure (Maggie McClure). It is reprinted from NAQ Fall 2000, Volume 25, Issue 1. The second article, by another great leader, Joyce Batcheller, DNP, RN, NEA-BC, FAAN, is a follow up on those predictions, reflecting on Nursing today and tommorow. PMID:27584886

  9. Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

    2011-12-01

    There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

  10. The closed spiracle phase of discontinuous gas exchange predicts diving duration in the grasshopper Paracinema tricolor.

    PubMed

    Gudowska, Agnieszka; Boardman, Leigh; Terblanche, John S

    2016-08-15

    The discontinuous gas exchange (DGE) pattern of respiration shown by many arthropods includes periods of spiracle closure (C-phase) and is largely thought to serve as a physiological adaptation to restrict water loss in terrestrial environments. One major challenge to this hypothesis is to explain the presence of DGE in insects in moist environments. Here, we show a novel ecological correlate of the C-phase, namely, diving behaviour in mesic Paracinema tricolor grasshoppers. Notably, maximal dive duration is positively correlated with C-phase length, even after accounting for mass scaling and absolute metabolic rate. Here, we propose that an additional advantage of DGE may be conferred by allowing the tracheal system to act as a sealed underwater oxygen reservoir. Spiracle closure may facilitate underwater submersion, which, in turn, may contribute to predator avoidance, the survival of accidental immersion or periodic flooding and the exploitation of underwater resources. PMID:27296045

  11. Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Ana M M; Mellin, Camille; Fordham, Damien A; Meekan, Mark G; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2014-03-01

    The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc  = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species. PMID:23907987

  12. Tryptophan Predicts the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tianlu; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Ni, Yan; Hu, Cheng; Rajani, Cynthia; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Recently, 5 amino acids were identified and verified as important metabolites highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. This report aims to assess the association of tryptophan with the development of T2D and to evaluate its performance with existing amino acid markers. A total of 213 participants selected from a ten-year longitudinal Shanghai Diabetes Study (SHDS) were examined in two ways: 1) 51 subjects who developed diabetes and 162 individuals who remained metabolically healthy in 10 years; 2) the same 51 future diabetes and 23 strictly matched ones selected from the 162 healthy individuals. Baseline fasting serum tryptophan concentrations were quantitatively measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry. First, serum tryptophan level was found significantly higher in future T2D and was positively and independently associated with diabetes onset risk. Patients with higher tryptophan level tended to present higher degree of insulin resistance and secretion, triglyceride and blood pressure. Second, the prediction potential of tryptophan is non-inferior to the 5 existing amino acids. The predictive performance of the combined score improved after taking tryptophan into account. Our findings unveiled the potential of tryptophan as a new marker associated with diabetes risk in Chinese populations. The addition of tryptophan provided complementary value to the existing amino acid predictors. PMID:27598004

  13. Using unknown knowns to predict coastal response to future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Lentz, E. E.; Gutierrez, B.; Thieler, E. R.; Passeri, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal zone, including its bathymetry, topography, ecosystem, and communities, depends on and responds to a wide array of natural and engineered processes associated with climate variability. Climate affects the frequency of coastal storms, which are only resolved probabilistically for future conditions, as well as setting the pace for persistent processes (e.g., waves driving daily alongshore transport; beach nourishment). It is not clear whether persistent processes or extreme events contribute most to the integrated evolution of the coast. Yet, observations of coastal change record the integration of persistent and extreme processes. When these observations span a large spatial domain and/or temporal range they may reflect a wide range of forcing and boundary conditions that include different levels of sea-level rise, storminess, sediment input, engineering activities, and elevation distributions. We have been using a statistical approach to characterize the interrelationships between oceanographic, ecological, and geomorphic processes—including the role played by human activities via coastal protection, beach nourishment, and other forms of coastal management. The statistical approach, Bayesian networks, incorporates existing information to establish underlying prior expectations for the distributions and inter-correlations of variables most relevant to coastal geomorphic evolution. This underlying information can then be used to make predictions. We demonstrate several examples of the utility of this approach using data as constraints and then propagating the constraints and uncertainty to make predictions of unobserved variables that include changes in shorelines, dunes, and overwash deposits. We draw on data from the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States, resolving time scales of years to a century. The examples include both short-term storm impacts and long-term evolution associated with sea-level rise. We show that the Bayesian network can

  14. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8–12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

  15. Identifying future scientists: predicting persistence into research training.

    PubMed

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end, and 8-12 months after their research experience. Of more than 200 themes considered, five characteristics predicted those students who went on to Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training or to M.D. training intending to do research: 1) Curiosity to discover the unknown, 2) Enjoyment of problem solving, 3) A high level of independence, 4) The desire to help others indirectly through research, and 5) A flexible, minimally structured approach to the future. Web-based surveys with different students confirmed the high frequency of curiosity and/or problem solving as the primary reason students planned research careers. No evidence was found for differences among men, women, and minority and nonminority students. Although these results seem logical compared with successful scientists, their constancy, predictive capabilities, and sharp contrast to students who chose clinical medicine were striking. These results provide important insights into selection and motivation of potential biomedical scientists and the early experiences that will motivate them toward research careers. PMID:18056303

  16. Duration of Diabetes Predicts Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity and Vascular Events in Alström Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Jamie; Carey, Catherine; Barrett, Timothy; Campbell, Fiona; Maffei, Pietro; Marshall, Jan D.; Paisey, Christopher; Steeds, Richard P.; Edwards, Nicola C.; Bunce, Susan; Geberhiwot, Tarekegn

    2015-01-01

    Context: Alström syndrome is characterized by increased risk of cardiovascular disease from childhood. Objective: To explore the association between risk factors for cardiovascular disease, aortic pulse wave velocity, and vascular events in Alström syndrome. Design: Cross-sectional analyses with 5-year follow-up. Setting: The UK NHS nationally commissioned specialist clinics for Alström syndrome. Patients: Thirty-one Alström patients undertook vascular risk assessment, cardiac studies, and aortic pulse wave velocity measurement. Subsequent clinical outcomes were recorded. Interventions: Insulin resistance was treated with lifestyle intervention and metformin, and diabetes with the addition of glitazones, glucagon-like peptide 1 agonists, and/or insulin. Thyroid and T deficiencies were corrected. Dyslipidemia was treated with statins and nicotinic acid derivatives. Cardiomyopathy was treated with standard therapy as required. Main Outcome Measures: The associations of age, gender, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease with aortic pulse wave velocity were assessed and correlated with the effects of reduction in left ventricular function. Vascular events were monitored for 5 years. Results: Aortic pulse wave velocity was positively associated with the duration of diabetes (P = .001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (P = .036). Five of the cohort with cardiovascular events had higher aortic pulse wave velocity (P = .0247), and all had long duration of diabetes. Conclusions: Duration of diabetes predicted aortic pulse wave velocity in Alström syndrome, which in turn predicted cardiovascular events. This offers hope of secondary prevention because type 2 diabetes can be delayed or reversed by lifestyle interventions. PMID:26066530

  17. Developing neuronal networks: Self-organized criticality predicts the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

    2013-01-01

    Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and ``aging'' process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

  18. Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

    PubMed

    Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model. PMID:27072929

  19. Surgery Duration Predicts Urinary Retention after Inguinal Herniorraphy: A Single Institution Review

    PubMed Central

    Hudak, Kevin E.; Frelich, Matthew J.; Rettenmaier, Chris R.; Xiang, Qun; Wallace, James R.; Kastenmeier, Andrew S.; Gould, Jon C.; Goldblatt, Matthew I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Inguinal hernia repair, laparoscopic or open, is one of the most frequently performed operations in general surgery. Postoperative urinary retention (POUR) can occur in 0.2–35% of patients after inguinal hernia repair. The primary objective of this study was to determine the incidence of POUR after inguinal hernia repair. As a secondary goal, we sought to determine if perioperative and patient factors predicted urinary retention. Methods This study is a retrospective review of patients who underwent inguinal hernia repair with synthetic mesh at the Medical College of Wisconsin from January 2007 to June 2012. Procedures were performed by four surgeons. Clinical information and perioperative outcomes were collected up to hospital discharge. Urinary retention was defined as need for urinary catheterization post-operatively. Results A total of 192 patients were included in the study (88 bilateral, 46%) and (104 unilateral, 54%). The majority of subjects (76%) underwent laparoscopic repair. The overall POUR rate was 13%, with 25 of 192 patients requiring a Foley catheter prior to discharge POUR was significantly associated with bilateral hernia repairs (p=0.04), BMI≥35kg/m2 (p=0.05) and longer operative times (p=0.03). Based on odds ratio estimates, for every 10-minute increase in operative time, an 11% increase in the odds of urinary retention is expected (OR 1.11, CI 1.004 – 1.223; p=0.04). For every 10-minute increase in operative time, an 11% increase in POUR is expected. Conclusions Bilateral hernia repairs, BMI ≥ 35kg/m2, and operative time are significant predictors of POUR. These factors are important to determine potential risk to patients and interventions such as strict fluid administration, use of catheters, and potential premedication. PMID:25612548

  20. Interglacial Durations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangili, Clara; McManus, Jerry F.; Raynaud, Dominique

    2014-05-01

    In the context of future global warming induced by human activities, it is essential to assess the role of natural climatic variations. Precise knowledge of the duration of past interglacial periods is fundamental to the understanding of the potential future evolution of the Holocene. Past ice age cycles provide a natural laboratory for exploring the progression and duration of interglacial climate. Palaeorecords from ice, land and oceans extend over the last 800 ka, revealing eight glacial-interglacial cycles, with a range of insolation and greenhouse gas influences. The interglacials display a correspondingly large variety of intensity and duration, thus providing an opportunity for major insights into the mechanisms involved in the behaviour of interglacial climates. A comparison of the duration of these interglacials, however, is often difficult, as the definition of an interglacial depends on the archive that is considered. Therefore, to compare interglacial length and climate conditions from different archives, a consistent definition of interglacial conditions is required, ideally one that is not bound to the method nor to the archive under consideration. Here we present a method to identify interglacials and to calculate their length by mean of a simple statistical approach. We based our method on ~ 400 ka windows of time to determine mean climatic conditions while allowing for the possibility of long term evolution of the climatic baseline. For our study of interglacials of the past 800 ka, we used two windows that largely align with the pre- (800-430 ka ago) and post- (430-0 ka ago) mid-Brunhes event (MBE), although the resulting conclusions are not sensitive to this particular division. We applied this method to the last 800 ka of a few palaeoclimate records: the deuterium ice core (EDC) record as a climatic proxy, the benthic δ18O stack (LR04) as a proxy for sea level/ice volume, ice core (Vostok, EDC) atmospheric CO2 and additional records. Although

  1. Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, Katarina L.; Pennline, James A.

    2013-01-01

    During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

  2. The predicting ability of serum potassium to assess the duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients

    PubMed Central

    Javdan, Zahra; Talakoub, Reihanak; Honarmand, Azim; Golparvar, Mohammad; Farsani, Enayatolah Yadollahi

    2015-01-01

    Background: No previous study has been done to evaluate the admission serum potassium level as a predictor of morbidity or need for mechanical ventilation. The aim of this study is to determine the predictive ability of serum potassium on admission, in critically ill trauma patients, and to evaluate the relation of the potassium level to organ failure, length of stay, ventilator need, and duration of mechanical ventilation. Materials and Methods: A prospective, observational study was done on 100 patients >16 years old, admitted to the Medical-Surgical Intensive Care Units (ICU), for over one year. Patients were classified into Group A: Patients who required equal or less than five days of mechanical ventilation and Group B: Patients who required more than five days of mechanical ventilation. The total serum potassium concentrations were measured and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was recorded at the time of admission to the ICU, when connected to the ventilator, and then at the time of weaning from the ventilator. Results: There was no significant difference between the Serum K concentrations between the two groups, on admission. However, there were significant difference between the Serum K concentrations at times of receiving and weaning from mechanical ventilation (MV) between the two groups. We found the best cut-off point of 3.45 for serum potassium concentration, to predict the need for longer duration of MV. Conclusion: Development of hypokalemia during an ICU stay is associated with the need for mechanical ventilation. Monitoring of the serum potassium levels may be a good prognostic factor for the requirement of mechanical ventilation. PMID:26322281

  3. Learning to predict: Exposure to temporal sequences facilitates prediction of future events

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Rosalind; Dexter, Matthew; Hardwicke, Tom E.; Goldstone, Aimee; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2014-01-01

    Previous experience is thought to facilitate our ability to extract spatial and temporal regularities from cluttered scenes. However, little is known about how we may use this knowledge to predict future events. Here we test whether exposure to temporal sequences facilitates the visual recognition of upcoming stimuli. We presented observers with a sequence of leftwards and rightwards oriented gratings that was interrupted by a test stimulus. Observers were asked to indicate whether the orientation of the test stimulus matched their expectation based on the preceding sequence. Our results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates our ability to predict an upcoming stimulus. In particular, observers’ performance improved following exposure to structured but not random sequences. Improved performance lasted for a prolonged period and generalized to untrained stimulus orientations rather than sequences of different global structure, suggesting that observers acquire knowledge of the sequence structure rather than its items. Further, this learning was compromised when observers performed a dual task resulting in increased attentional load. These findings suggest that exposure to temporal regularities in a scene allows us to accumulate knowledge about its global structure and predict future events. PMID:24231115

  4. Predicting environmental risk: A road map for the future.

    PubMed

    Jager, Tjalling

    2016-01-01

    Frameworks for environmental risk assessment (ERA) focus on comparing results from separate exposure and effect assessments. Exposure assessment generally relies on mechanistic fate models, whereas the effects assessment is anchored in standard test protocols and descriptive statistics. This discrepancy prevents a useful link between these two pillars of ERA, and jeopardizes the realism and efficacy of the entire process. Similar to exposure assessment, effects assessment requires a mechanistic approach to translate the output of fate models into predictions for impacts on populations and food webs. The aim of this study was to discuss (1) the central importance of the individual level, (2) different strategies of dealing with biological complexity, and (3) the role that toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models, energy budgets, and molecular biology play in a mechanistic revision of the ERA framework. Consequently, an outline for a risk assessment paradigm was developed that incorporates a mechanistic effects assessment in a consistent manner, and a "roadmap for the future." Such a roadmap may play a critical role to eventually arrive at a more scientific and efficient ERA process, and needs to be used to shape our long-term research agendas. PMID:27484139

  5. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  6. Flow-duration curves

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Searcy, James Kincheon

    1959-01-01

    The flow-duration curve is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of time specified discharges were equaled or exceeded during a given period. It combines in one curve the flow characteristics of a stream throughout the range of discharge, without regard to the sequence of occurrence. If the period upon which the curve is based represents the long-term flow of a stream, the curve may be used to predict the distribution of future flows for water- power, water-supply, and pollution studies. This report shows that differences in geology affect the low-flow ends of flow-duration curves of streams in adjacent basins. Thus, duration curves are useful in appraising the geologic characteristics of drainage basins. A method for adjusting flow-duration curves of short periods to represent long-term conditions is presented. The adjustment is made by correlating the records of a short-term station with those of a long-term station.

  7. Sensor-derived physical activity parameters can predict future falls in people with dementia

    PubMed Central

    Schwenk, Michael; Hauer, Klaus; Zieschang, Tania; Englert, Stefan; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

    2014-01-01

    Background There is a need for simple clinical tools that can objectively assess fall risk in people with dementia. Wearable sensors seem to have potential for fall prediction, however, there has been limited work performed in this important area. Objective To explore the validity of sensor-derived physical activity (PA) parameters for predicting future falls in people with dementia. To compare sensor-based fall risk assessment with conventional fall risk measures. Methods A cohort study of people with confirmed dementia discharged from a geriatric rehabilitation ward. PA was quantified using 24-hour motion-sensor monitoring at the beginning of the study. PA parameters (percentage of walking, standing, sitting, lying; duration of single walking, standing, and sitting bouts) were extracted using specific algorithms. Conventional assessment included performance-based tests (Timed-up-and-go test, Performance-Oriented-Mobility-Assessment, 5-chair stand) and questionnaires (cognition, ADL-status, fear of falling, depression, previous faller). Outcome measures were fallers (at least one fall in the 3-month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. Results Seventy-seven people were included in the study (age 81.8 ± 6.3; community dwelling 88%, institutionalized 12%). Surprisingly, fallers and non-fallers did not differ on any conventional assessment (p= 0.069–0.991), except for ‘previous faller’ (p= 0.006). Interestingly, several PA parameters discriminated between groups. The ‘walking bouts average duration’, ‘longest walking bout duration’ and ‘walking bouts duration variability’ were lower in fallers, compared to non-fallers (p= 0.008–0.027). The ‘standing bouts average duration’ was higher in fallers (p= 0.050). Two variables, ‘walking bouts average duration’ [odds ratio (OR) 0.79, p= 0.012] and ‘previous faller’ [OR 4.44, p= 0.007] were identified as independent predictors for falls. The OR for a ‘walking bouts average duration’ of

  8. Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations.

    PubMed

    Rowberry, Matt D; Martí, Xavi; Frontera, Carlos; Van De Wiel, Marco J; Briestenský, Miloš

    2016-06-01

    Cave radon concentration measurements reflect the outcome of a perpetual competition which pitches flux against ventilation and radioactive decay. The mass balance equations used to model changes in radon concentration through time routinely treat flux as a constant. This mathematical simplification is acceptable as a first order approximation despite the fact that it sidesteps an intrinsic geological problem: the majority of radon entering a cavity is exhaled as a result of advection along crustal discontinuities whose motions are inhomogeneous in both time and space. In this paper the dynamic nature of flux is investigated and the results are used to predict cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The first part of our numerical modelling procedure focuses on calculating cave air flow velocity while the second part isolates flux in a mass balance equation to simulate real time dependence among the variables. It is then possible to use this information to deliver an expression for computing cave radon concentration for successive iterations. The dynamic variables in the numerical model are represented by the outer temperature, the inner temperature, and the radon concentration while the static variables are represented by the radioactive decay constant and a range of parameters related to geometry of the cavity. Input data were recorded at Driny Cave in the Little Carpathians Mountains of western Slovakia. Here the cave passages have developed along splays of the NE-SW striking Smolenice Fault and a series of transverse faults striking NW-SE. Independent experimental observations of fault slip are provided by three permanently installed mechanical extensometers. Our numerical modelling has revealed four important flux anomalies between January 2010 and August 2011. Each of these flux anomalies was preceded by conspicuous fault slip anomalies. The mathematical procedure outlined in this paper will help to improve our understanding of radon migration

  9. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  10. Anticipating the future: Automatic prediction failures in schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Judith M.; Mathalon, Daniel H.

    2011-01-01

    People with schizophrenia often misperceive sensations and misinterpret experiences, perhaps contributing to psychotic symptoms. These misperceptions and misinterpretations might result from an inability to make valid predictions about expected sensations and experiences. Healthy normal people take advantage of neural mechanisms that allow them to make predictions unconsciously, facilitating processing of expected sensations and distinguishing the expected from the unexpected. In this paper, we focus on two types of automatic, unconscious mechanisms that allow us to predict our perceptions. The first involves predictions made via innate mechanisms basic to all species in the animal kingdom—the efference copy and corollary discharge mechanisms. They accompany our voluntary movements and allow us to suppress sensations resulting from our actions. We study this during talking, and show that auditory cortical response to the speech sounds during talking is reduced compared to when they are played back. This suppression is reduced in schizophrenia, suggesting a failure to predict the sensations resulting from talking. The second mechanism involves implicitly learning what to expect from the current context of events. We study this by observing the brain's response to an unexpected repetition of an event, when a change would have been predicted. That patients have a reduced response suggests they failed to predict that it was time for a change. Both types of predictions should happen automatically and effortlessly, allowing for economic processing of expected events and orientation to unexpected ones. These prediction failures characterize the diagnosis of schizophrenia rather than reflecting specific symptoms. PMID:21959054

  11. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  12. Duration of Antimuscarinic Administration for Treatment of Overactive Bladder Before Which One Can Assess Efficacy: An Analysis of Predictive Factors

    PubMed Central

    Hsiao, Sheng-Mou; Liao, Chun-Hou; Lin, Ho-Hsiung; Kuo, Hann-Chorng

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the duration of antimuscarinic therapy for overactive bladder syndrome (OAB) appropriate for assessment of the efficacy of treatment, and to evaluate the possible predictive factors for response to therapy. Methods: All OAB patients who visited a urology outpatient clinic of a tertiary referral center and who were prescribed 5 mg of solifenacin or 4 mg of tolterodine extended release capsules daily were enrolled in the study. Patients were asked to continue therapy for 6 months. All enrolled patients completed the patient perception of bladder condition, overactive bladder symptom score (OABSS), and the modified Indevus Urgency Severity Scale questionnaires. All patients underwent uroflowmetry. Results: A total of 164 patients were enrolled and 125 patients (76%) had at least one follow-up visit. The mean follow-up interval was 1 month (range, 0.5–6 months). Sixty-two patients (49.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 40.7–58.5) responded to antimuscarinic treatment. The median time for the onset of response was 3 months (95% CI, 1–6). Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model revealed that elevated baseline OABSS was an independent predictor of responsiveness to therapy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed an optimal OABSS cutoff value of ≥7, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.70–0.88; sensitivity, 91.9%; specificity, 60.7%). Conclusions: The median time for a therapeutic response was 3 months, and OABSS was the only predictor for responsiveness. These findings may serve as a guideline when prescribing antimuscarinic treatment for OAB patients. PMID:26620899

  13. Pre-attentive sensitivity to vowel duration reveals native phonology and predicts learning of second-language sounds.

    PubMed

    Chládková, Kateřina; Escudero, Paola; Lipski, Silvia C

    2013-09-01

    In some languages (e.g. Czech), changes in vowel duration affect word meaning, while in others (e.g. Spanish) they do not. Yet for other languages (e.g. Dutch), the linguistic role of vowel duration remains unclear. To reveal whether Dutch represents vowel length in its phonology, we compared auditory pre-attentive duration processing in native and non-native vowels across Dutch, Czech, and Spanish. Dutch duration sensitivity patterned with Czech but was larger than Spanish in the native vowel, while it was smaller than Czech and Spanish in the non-native vowel. An interpretation of these findings suggests that in Dutch, duration is used phonemically but it might be relevant for the identity of certain native vowels only. Furthermore, the finding that Spanish listeners are more sensitive to duration in non-native than in native vowels indicates that a lack of duration differences in one's native language could be beneficial for second-language learning. PMID:23867922

  14. A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

  15. Predictions for the Future of American Public Education: Voices from Classrooms and Communities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ausburn, Lynna J.; Ellis, Andrea M.; Washburn, Earlene

    2011-01-01

    This study used descriptive statistics, rating and ranking procedures, and factor analysis to describe the predictions of 447 educators and members of the general public about 13 concepts that would influence the future of American public education. The 13 items formed four broad factors that were predicted to influence the future of education in…

  16. Visions: Reflections on the Past, Predictions of the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connection: The Journal of the New England Board of Higher Education, 2005

    2005-01-01

    To mark New England Board of Higher Education's (NEBHE) 50th anniversary year, "Connection" invited a small group of visionary commentators to submit short "statements" on the future of New England's economic and civic development, tomorrow's technologies and the changing shape of higher education. This article includes the following "statements":…

  17. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

  18. Predicting Future Reconviction in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: The Predictive Efficacy of VRAG, PCL-SV, and the HCR-20

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gray, Nicola S.; Fitzgerald, Suzanne; Taylor, John; MacCulloch, Malcolm J.; Snowden, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Accurate predictions of future reconviction, including those for violent crimes, have been shown to be greatly aided by the use of formal risk assessment instruments. However, it is unclear as to whether these instruments would also be predictive in a sample of offenders with intellectual disabilities. In this study, the authors have shown that…

  19. Prediction of Research Self-Efficacy and Future Research Involvement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bishop, Rosean M.; And Others

    Although graduate programs hope that their students will be committed to research in their careers, most students express ambivalence towards research. Identifying the variables that predict involvement in research thus seems crucial. In this study 136 doctoral students from a wide range of disciplines completed the Research Self-Efficacy Scale…

  20. Predicting the Future: Studies on the Growth of the Intellect.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ.

    This illustrated booklet describes research procedures in the Infant Laboratory of the Educational Testing Service to investigate measurable factors in infant behavior which can predict intellectual potential. The research is currently focusing on attending, the manner in which infants respond to various stimuli presented to them during their…

  1. Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

    PubMed Central

    Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R; Adler, Frederick R; Sanders, Nathan J

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change. PMID:24963378

  2. Identifying Future Scientists: Predicting Persistence into Research Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGee, Richard; Keller, Jill L.

    2007-01-01

    This study used semistructured interviews and grounded theory to look for characteristics among college undergraduates that predicted persistence into Ph.D. and M.D./Ph.D. training. Participants in the summer undergraduate and postbaccalaureate research programs at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine were interviewed at the start, near the end,…

  3. Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy after Ellis: Predictions for the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weinrach, Stephen G.; Ellis, Albert; DiGiuseppe, Raymond; Bernard, Michael E.; Dryden, Windy; Kassinove, Howard; Morris, G. Barry; Vernon, Ann; Wolfe, Janet

    1995-01-01

    Nine members of the institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy's (REBT) International Training Standards and Review Committee predicted the status of REBT 25 to 50 years after the death of Albert Ellis. Will REBT continue to exist in its own right or be incorporated into newer forms of cognitive behavior therapy? (EMK)

  4. Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

    2006-01-01

    Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

  5. Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

  6. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  7. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    PubMed Central

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  8. Predicting future years of healthy life for older adults.

    PubMed

    Diehr, P; Patrick, D L; Bild, D E; Burke, G L; Williamson, J D

    1998-04-01

    Cost-effectiveness studies often need to compare the cost of a program to the lifetime benefits of the program, but estimates of lifetime benefits are not routinely available, especially for older adults. We used data from two large longitudinal studies of older adults (ages 65-100) to estimate transition probabilities from one health state to another, and used those probabilities to estimate the mean additional years of healthy life that an older adult of specified age, sex, and health status would experience. We found, for example, that 65-year-old women in excellent health can expect 16.8 years of healthy life in the future, compared to only 8.5 years for women in poor health. We also provide estimates of discounted years of healthy life and future life expectancy. These estimates may be used to extend the effective length of the study period in cost-effectiveness studies, to examine the impact of chronic diseases or risk factors on years of healthy life, or to investigate the relationship of years of life to years of healthy life. Several applications are described. PMID:9539891

  9. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  10. Predicting Preterm Labour: Current Status and Future Prospects

    PubMed Central

    Georgiou, Harry M.; Di Quinzio, Megan K. W.; Permezel, Michael; Brennecke, Shaun P.

    2015-01-01

    Preterm labour and birth are a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Despite modern advances in obstetric and neonatal management, the rate of preterm birth in the developed world is increasing. Yet even though numerous risk factors associated with preterm birth have been identified, the ability to accurately predict when labour will occur remains elusive, whether it is at a term or preterm gestation. In the latter case, this is likely due to the multifactorial aetiology of preterm labour wherein women may display different clinical presentations that lead to preterm birth. The discovery of novel biomarkers that could reliably identify women who will subsequently deliver preterm may allow for timely medical intervention and targeted therapeutic treatments aimed at improving maternal and fetal outcomes. Various body fluids including amniotic fluid, urine, saliva, blood (serum/plasma), and cervicovaginal fluid all provide a rich protein source of putative biochemical markers that may be causative or reflective of the various pathophysiological disorders of pregnancy, including preterm labour. This short review will highlight recent advances in the field of biomarker discovery and the utility of single and multiple biomarkers for the prediction of preterm birth in the absence of intra-amniotic infection. PMID:26160993

  11. Can Global Weed Assemblages Be Used to Predict Future Weeds?

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Louise; Paini, Dean R.; Randall, Roderick P.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM) approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems. PMID:23393591

  12. Statistical interference prediction for ground stations from orbiting satellites. I - Simulation of interference duration and analytical approach for the determination of protection ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevargiz, John M.; Nguyen, Tien M.; Bishop, Dennis F.

    1990-01-01

    The authors describe simulation and analytical techniques for predicting the interference durations and protection ratios for deep-space ground stations from satellites in circular orbits. The simulation approach employs the characteristics of the ground station receivers in addition to the satellite specifications to calculate the daily statistics of the interference duration. On the other hand, the analytical method employs the ground station specifications to statistically predict the protection ratios as a function of the number of interference satellites and their associated probabilities. The results presented here can be used for both planning the missions and designing satellite communication links. The results can be also be used by spectrum managers and operations personnel to minimize the risk of harmful interference from satellites in low earth orbit to the deep space frequency band.

  13. Toward risk reduction: predicting the future burden of occupational cancer.

    PubMed

    Hutchings, Sally; Rushton, Lesley

    2011-05-01

    Interventions to reduce cancers related to certain occupations should be evidence-based. The authors have developed a method for forecasting the future burden of occupational cancer to inform strategies for risk reduction. They project risk exposure periods, accounting for cancer latencies of up to 50 years, forward in time to estimate attributable fractions for a series of forecast target years given past and projected exposure trends and under targeted reduction scenarios. Adjustment factors for changes in exposed numbers and levels are applied in estimation intervals within the risk-exposure periods. The authors illustrate the methods by using a range of scenarios for reducing lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica. Attributable fractions for lung cancer due to respirable crystalline silica could be potentially reduced from 2.07% in 2010 to nearly 0% by 2060, depending on the timing and success of interventions. Focusing on achieving compliance with current exposure standards in small industries can be more effective than setting standards at a lower level. The method can be used to highlight high-risk carcinogens, industries, and occupations. It is adaptable for other countries and other exposure situations in the general environment and can be extended to include socioeconomic impact assessment. PMID:21447477

  14. Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the .net future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Ernest L.

    2001-10-01

    An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The use of these machines in factory automation can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. This paper presents a discussion of recent and future technical and economic trends. During the past twenty years the use of industrial robots that are equipped not only with precise motion control systems but also with sensors such as cameras, laser scanners, or tactile sensors that permit adaptation to a changing environment has increased dramatically. Intelligent robot products have been developed in many cases for factory automation and for some hospital and home applications. To reach an even higher degree of applications, the addition of learning may be required. Recently, learning theories such as the adaptive critic have been proposed. In this type of learning, a critic provides a grade to the controller of an action module such as a robot. The adaptive critic is a good model for human learning. In general, the critic may be considered to be the human with the teach pendant, plant manager, line supervisor, quality inspector or the consumer. If the ultimate critic is the consumer, then the quality inspector must model the consumer's decision-making process and use this model in the design and manufacturing operations. Can the adaptive critic be used to advance intelligent robots? Intelligent robots have historically taken decades to be developed and reduced to practice. Methods for speeding this development include technology such as rapid prototyping and product development and government, industry and university cooperation.

  15. Predictive animal models of mania: hits, misses and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Young, Jared W; Henry, Brook L; Geyer, Mark A

    2011-01-01

    Mania has long been recognized as aberrant behaviour indicative of mental illness. Manic states include a variety of complex and multifaceted symptoms that challenge clear clinical distinctions. Symptoms include over-activity, hypersexuality, irritability and reduced need for sleep, with cognitive deficits recently linked to functional outcome. Current treatments have arisen through serendipity or from other disorders. Hence, treatments are not efficacious for all patients, and there is an urgent need to develop targeted therapeutics. Part of the drug discovery process is the assessment of therapeutics in animal models. Here we review pharmacological, environmental and genetic manipulations developed to test the efficacy of therapeutics in animal models of mania. The merits of these models are discussed in terms of the manipulation used and the facet of mania measured. Moreover, the predictive validity of these models is discussed in the context of differentiating drugs that succeed or fail to meet criteria as approved mania treatments. The multifaceted symptomatology of mania has not been reflected in the majority of animal models, where locomotor activity remains the primary measure. This approach has resulted in numerous false positives for putative treatments. Recent work highlights the need to utilize multivariate strategies to enable comprehensive assessment of affective and cognitive dysfunction. Advances in therapeutic treatment may depend on novel models developed with an integrated approach that includes: (i) a comprehensive battery of tests for different aspects of mania, (ii) utilization of genetic information to establish aetiological validity and (iii) objective quantification of patient behaviour with translational cross-species paradigms. LINKED ARTICLES This article is part of a themed issue on Translational Neuropharmacology. To view the other articles in this issue visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2011.164.issue-4 PMID:21410454

  16. Callous-unemotional traits robustly predict future criminal offending in young men.

    PubMed

    Kahn, Rachel E; Byrd, Amy L; Pardini, Dustin A

    2013-04-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of empathy, deficient guilt/remorse, and shallow affect) are a circumscribed facet of the adult psychopathic personality. Although several studies have found that adult psychopathy is a robust predictor of future criminal offending, research exploring the predictive utility of CU traits and future offending are lacking. Moreover, empirical studies examining the predictive utility of psychopathic features often neglect to account for other well-documented risk factors (e.g., prior offending, delinquent peers, marital status), and thus the incremental predictive utility of CU traits remains uncertain. To address these limitations, the current study examined the unique contribution of CU traits in the prediction of future criminal offending in a large ethnically diverse community sample of young adult males (Mean Age = 25.76, SD = .95). Official criminal record information was collected approximately 3.5 years later using multiple sources. Results indicated that after controlling for several other well-established predictors of future offending, men with elevated CU traits had a greater number of arrests and criminal charges and were more likely to be charged with a serious offense and obstruction of justice. CU traits also predicted future theft for Caucasian men, but not African American men. Overall, the results support the notion that CU traits significantly add to the prediction of future offending, even after controlling for several other risk factors. PMID:22731505

  17. Callous-Unemotional Traits Robustly Predict Future Criminal Offending in Young Men

    PubMed Central

    Kahn, Rachel E.; Byrd, Amy L.; Pardini, Dustin A.

    2013-01-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of empathy, deficient guilt/remorse, and shallow affect) are a circumscribed facet of the adult psychopathic personality. Although several studies have found that adult psychopathy is a robust predictor of future criminal offending, research exploring the predictive utility of CU traits and future offending are lacking. Moreover, empirical studies examining the predictive utility of psychopathic features often neglect to account for other well-documented risk factors (e.g., prior offending, delinquent peers, marital status), and thus the incremental predictive utility of CU traits remains uncertain. To address these limitations, the current study examined the unique contribution of CU traits in the prediction of future criminal offending in a large ethnically diverse community sample of young adult males (Mean Age = 25.76, SD = .95). Official criminal record information was collected approximately 3.5 years later using multiple sources. Results indicated that after controlling for several other well-established predictors of future offending, men with elevated CU traits had a greater number of arrests and criminal charges and were more likely to be charged with a serious offense and obstruction of justice. CU traits also predicted future theft for Caucasian men, but not African American men. Overall, the results support the notion that CU traits significantly add to the prediction of future offending, even after controlling for several other risk factors. PMID:22731505

  18. Predicting Future Introductions of Nonindigenous Species to the Great Lakes (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has released a final report entitled, Predicting Future Introductions of Nonindigenous Species to the Great Lakes. This report predicts the spread of aquatic nonindigenous species into the Great Lakes to help resource managers focus monitoring activities on particular...

  19. THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory


    The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
    Mechanism-Based Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

    When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

  20. Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

  1. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    PubMed

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26282242

  2. Managers’ Practices Related to Work–Family Balance Predict Employee Cardiovascular Risk and Sleep Duration in Extended Care Settings

    PubMed Central

    Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu; Ertel, Karen; Okechukwu, Cassandra

    2012-01-01

    An increasing proportion of U.S. workers have family caregiving responsibilities. The purpose of this study was to determine whether employees in extended care settings whose managers are supportive, open, and creative about work–family needs, such as flexibility with work schedules, have lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and longer sleep than their less supported counterparts. From semistructured interviews with managers, we constructed a work–family balance score of manager openness and creativity in dealing with employee work–family needs. Trained interviewers collected survey and physiologic outcome data from 393 employees whose managers had a work–family score. Employee outcomes are sleep duration (actigraphy) and CVD risk assessed by blood cholesterol, high glycosylated hemoglobin/diabetes, blood pressure/hypertension, body-mass index, and tobacco consumption. Employees whose managers were less supportive slept less (29 min/day) and were over twice as likely to have 2 or more CVD risk factors (ORs = 2.1 and 2.03 for low and middle manager work–family scores, respectively) than employees whose managers were most open and creative. Employees who provide direct patient care exhibited particularly elevated CVD risk associated with low manager work–family score. Managers’ attitudes and practices may affect employee health, including sleep duration and CVD risk. PMID:20604637

  3. Predicting future, post-fire erosion and sedimentation with watershed models in the western USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; McVay, J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how future changes in fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the USA and throughout the world. In this work we predict variability in post-fire sediment yield at a watershed scale as a function of future wildfire conditions throughout the western USA through 2050. Our predictions are based on future fire probabilities, climate change scenarios, and differing GIS-based implementations of watershed sediment yield models. We assess the uncertainties of our predictions and compare predictions based on the GEOWEPP (Geo-spatial interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project) model, the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Sediment Retention model, and the InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio model. We show that the models can be parameterized in a relatively simple fashion to predict post-fire sediment yield with accuracy at a watershed scale. Predictions indicate that sediment yield from post-fire hillslope erosion may increase dramatically in coming decades as a function of increased wildfire for many watersheds across the western USA.

  4. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  5. Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

  6. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

  7. Reward Region Responsivity Predicts Future Weight Gain and Moderating Effects of the TaqIA Allele

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Kyle S.; Yokum, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    Because no large prospective study has investigated neural vulnerability factors that predict future weight gain, we tested whether neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of palatable food and monetary reward predicted body fat gain over a 3-year follow-up in healthy-weight adolescent humans and whether the TaqIA polymorphism moderates these relations. A total of 153 adolescents completed fMRI paradigms assessing response to these events; body fat was assessed annually over follow-up. Elevated orbitofrontal cortex response to cues signaling impending milkshake receipt predicted future body fat gain (r = 0.32), which is a novel finding that provides support for the incentive sensitization theory of obesity. Neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of monetary reward did not predict body fat gain, which has not been tested previously. Replicating an earlier finding (Stice et al., 2008a), elevated caudate response to milkshake receipt predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for greater dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing the TaqIA A2/A2 allele, but lower caudate response predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for less dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing a TaqIA A1 allele, though this interaction was only marginal [p-value <0.05 corrected using voxel-level familywise error rate (pFWE) = 0.06]. Parental obesity, which correlated with TaqIA allele status (odds ratio = 2.7), similarly moderated the relation of caudate response to milkshake receipt to future body fat gain, which is another novel finding. The former interaction implies that too much or too little dopamine signaling and reward region responsivity increases risk for overeating, suggesting qualitatively distinct reward surfeit and reward deficit pathways to obesity. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Because no large prospective study has investigated neural vulnerability factors that predict future weight gain we tested whether

  8. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. PMID:24677422

  9. Twenty Predictions about the Future of Residential Services in Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfensberger, Wolf

    2011-01-01

    Twenty predictions about the future of residential services to the mentally retarded are presented. These changes imply: (1) an entirely new model of residential services; (2) increasing continuity between residential and nonresidential services; and (3) increasing acceptance of cost-benefit rationales in the decision to offer residential or other…

  10. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  11. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models forPredictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  12. Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2006-01-01

    The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These

  13. Time to Pregnancy: A Computational Method for Using the Duration of Non-Conception for Predicting Conception

    PubMed Central

    Sozou, Peter D.; Hartshorne, Geraldine M.

    2012-01-01

    An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple's future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple's fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple's chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple's expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility. PMID:23056338

  14. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    PubMed

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis. PMID:24496968

  15. EVENT PREDICTION AND AFFECTIVE FORECASTING IN DEPRESSIVE COGNITION: USING EMOTION AS INFORMATION ABOUT THE FUTURE

    PubMed Central

    MARROQUÍN, BRETT; NOLEN-HOEKSEMA, SUSAN

    2015-01-01

    Depression is characterized by a bleak view of the future, but the mechanisms through which depressed mood is integrated into basic processes of future-oriented cognition are unclear. We hypothesized that dysphoric individuals’ predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how the future will feel (affective forecasting) are attributable to individual differences in incorporating present emotion as judgment-relevant information. Dysphoric individuals (n = 77) made pessimistic likelihood estimates and blunted positive affective forecasts relative to controls (n = 84). These differences were mediated by dysphoric individuals’ tendencies to rely on negative emotion as information more than controls—and on positive emotion less—independent of anhedonia. These findings suggest that (1) blunted positive affective forecasting is a distinctive component of depressive future-oriented cognition, and (2) future-oriented cognitive processes are linked not just to current emotional state, but also to individual variation in using that emotion as information. This role of individual differences elucidates basic mechanisms in future-oriented cognition, and suggests routes for intervention on interrelated cognitive and affective processes in depression. PMID:26146452

  16. Temperament and parenting during the first year of life predict future child conduct problems.

    PubMed

    Lahey, Benjamin B; Van Hulle, Carol A; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D

    2008-11-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4-13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation when infant temperament was controlled. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions. PMID:18568397

  17. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex

    PubMed Central

    Luft, Caroline D. B.; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E.

    2015-01-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. PMID:25744884

  18. Time domain signal-averaged electrocardiogram in predicting arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction: role of the duration of the filtered QRS complex.

    PubMed

    Bruna, C; Vado, A; Rossetti, G; Racca, E; Borello, V; Cherasco, E; Isoardi, D; Uslenghi, E

    1996-12-01

    Several studies showed that time domain analysis of the signal-averaged ECG may identify groups of patients with low and high risk for arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction (MI). However, the signal averaging methods were not uniform and the definition of abnormal signal-averaged ECG was empiric. To identify the best quantitative signal-averaged variable in predicting arrhythmic events (sustained ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation and witnessed, instantaneous death) 262 patients surviving acute MI were prospectively evaluated. Twelve clinical variables, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), complex ventricular arrhythmias (CVA) on Holter monitoring and three conventional signal-averaged variables (either at 25-250 or 40-250 Hz) were entered in a Cox proportional hazards regression model. During a mean follow-up of 20.3 +/- 13.7 months 16 (6.1%) patients had arrhythmic events. All six signal-averaged variables were independent predictors of arrhythmic events and the filtered QRS duration (fQRSD) > or = 120 ms at 40 Hz high pass filtering resulted the most predictive. In a regression analysis, including the best signal-averaged variable, LVEF and CVA, only fQRSD > or = 120 ms at 40 Hz and LVEF independently predicted arrhythmic events. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and odds ratio for fQRSD > or = 120 ms at 40 Hz were 63, 90, 29 and 11%, respectively, and for the combination of fQRSD > or = 120 ms at 40 Hz and LVEF < 40%, were 73, 95, 47 and 39%, respectively. In conclusion, the fQRSD > or = 120 ms at 40 Hz best predicts arrhythmic events in the post-infarction period. The combination of signal-averaged ECG and LVEF is recommended to stratify patients at risk of arrhythmic events after MI. PMID:9031532

  19. Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

    1997-01-01

    At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

  20. Residual forefoot deformity predicts the need for future surgery in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting.

    PubMed

    Hosseinzadeh, Pooya; Peterson, Erik D; Walker, Janet; Muchow, Ryan D; Iwinski, Henry J; Talwalkar, Vishwas R; Milbrandt, Todd A

    2016-03-01

    Tibialis anterior tendon transfer (TATT) is performed for treatment of recurrent clubfeet. We investigated the predictability of residual adductus on the future need for TATT. A retrospective review of 143 patients with clubfoot was performed. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 with a history of TATT and group 2 with no TATT. Heel-forefoot angle (HFA) was measured. HFA was compared between the groups. HFA was significantly different between groups 1 and 2. Residual adductus deformity in clubfeet treated by Ponseti casting is a risk factor for future need for surgical treatment. PMID:26650453

  1. Mathematical Modeling of Bacterial Kinetics to Predict the Impact of Antibiotic Colonic Exposure and Treatment Duration on the Amount of Resistant Enterobacteria Excreted

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Guedj, Jeremie; Chachaty, Elisabeth; de Gunzburg, Jean; Andremont, Antoine; Mentré, France

    2014-01-01

    Fecal excretion of antibiotics and resistant bacteria in the environment are major public health threats associated with extensive farming and modern medical care. Innovative strategies that can reduce the intestinal antibiotic concentrations during treatments are in development. However, the effect of lower exposure on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted has not been quantified, making it difficult to anticipate the impact of these strategies. Here, we introduce a bacterial kinetic model to capture the complex relationships between drug exposure, loss of susceptible enterobacteria and growth of resistant strains in the feces of piglets receiving placebo, 1.5 or 15 mg/kg/day ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, for 5 days. The model could well describe the kinetics of drug susceptible and resistant enterobacteria observed during treatment, and up to 22 days after treatment cessation. Next, the model was used to predict the expected amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted over an average piglet's lifetime (150 days) when varying drug exposure and treatment duration. For the clinically relevant dose of 15 mg/kg/day for 5 days, the total amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted was predicted to be reduced by 75% and 98% when reducing treatment duration to 3 and 1 day treatment, respectively. Alternatively, for a fixed 5-days treatment, the level of resistance excreted could be reduced by 18%, 33%, 57.5% and 97% if 3, 5, 10 and 30 times lower levels of colonic drug concentrations were achieved, respectively. This characterization on in vivo data of the dynamics of resistance to antibiotics in the colonic flora could provide new insights into the mechanism of dissemination of resistance and can be used to design strategies aiming to reduce it. PMID:25210849

  2. Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: is it time to "disinvent the wheel"?

    PubMed

    Edens, John F; Buffington-Vollum, Jacqueline K; Keilen, Andrea; Roskamp, Phillip; Anthony, Christine

    2005-02-01

    Although recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding the death penalty (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002) have renewed interest in mental health issues, one topic that has not received much attention recently is the ongoing use of expert testimony to support claims that defendants represent a "continuing threat to society." In this article, we (a) review prior research relevant to determining the accuracy of clinical predictions that capital defendants will commit future acts of criminal violence; (b) summarize new data from current and former death row inmates in Texas that bolster the claim that such predictions are gross overestimates of risk; and (c) review extant research addressing the potential utility of various risk assessment instruments that increasingly are being used to reinforce clinical predictions in capital trials. Despite significant recent advances in the field of risk assessment, clinical assertions that a defendant is likely to commit future violent acts appear to be highly inaccurate and ethically questionable at best. Moreover, available research offers little support for the claim that the accuracy of these predictions will be appreciably improved by relying on more structured risk assessment measures that have some demonstrated predictive validity in other contexts. PMID:15865332

  3. Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters

    PubMed Central

    Lundberg, Kristjen B.; Payne, B. Keith

    2014-01-01

    Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters. PMID:24489666

  4. Brain activity in valuation regions while thinking about the future predicts individual discount rates.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W; Kim, B Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-08-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future--specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals--predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  5. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    PubMed Central

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  6. Age-related prefrontal impairments implicate deficient prediction of future reward in older adults.

    PubMed

    Eppinger, Ben; Heekeren, Hauke R; Li, Shu-Chen

    2015-08-01

    Foresighted decision-making depends on the ability to learn the value of future outcomes and the sequential choices necessary to achieve them. Using a 3-stage Markov decision task and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated age differences in the ability to extract state transition structures while learning to predict future reward. In younger adults learning was associated with enhanced activity in the prefrontal cortex (PFC). In older adults (OA) we found no evidence for PFC recruitment. However, high-performing OA showed enhanced striatal activity, suggesting that they may engage in a model-free (experience-based) learning strategy. Change point analyses revealed that in younger adults learning was characterized by distinct and abrupt shifts in PFC activity, which were predictive of behavioral change points. In OA PFC activity was less pronounced and not predictive of behavior. Our findings suggest that age-related impairments in learning future reward value can be attributed to a deficit in extracting sequential state transition structures. This deficit may lead to myopic decisions in OA if contextual information has to be temporally integrated. PMID:26004018

  7. FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

    PubMed

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-02-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

  8. FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Knudsen, Thomas B.; Keller, Douglas A.; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Eaton, David L.; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Mendrick, Donna L.; Tice, Raymond R.; Watkins, Paul B.; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

  9. Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

    PubMed Central

    Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

  10. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    PubMed Central

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J. F.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N < 10,000) the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially. PMID:26273586

  11. Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

    PubMed

    Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

    2016-03-01

    Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health. PMID:26825106

  12. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  13. Iowa Gambling Task scores predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with stimulant dependence.

    PubMed

    Nejtek, Vicki A; Kaiser, Kathryn A; Zhang, Bin; Djokovic, Marija

    2013-12-30

    Poor decision-making is associated with poor recovery in persons with bipolar disorder and drug relapse in persons with stimulant dependence. Cognitive predictors of stimulant use in those with comorbid bipolar and stimulant dependence are surprisingly absent. Our goal was to determine if a single baseline assessment of decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT) would predict future drug use in bipolar disorder outpatients with comorbid stimulant dependence. Ninety-four men and women of multiple race/ethnic origins consented to participate in a 20-week study. Data analyses were performed on 63 comorbid bipolar outpatients completing at least four study weeks and 28 cocaine dependent volunteers without a mood disorder who participated as cocaine controls. There were no significant differences in IGT scores between comorbid patients and cocaine controls. In the comorbid group, IGT scores significantly predicted future drug use during the study. Age, sex, race, years of mental illness, or mood state did not significantly influence IGT scores. This is the first longitudinal study to show that IGT scores obtained at a single baseline assessment predicts future objective drug use in comorbid bipolar disorder outpatients with cocaine or methamphetamine dependence. Evaluating decision-making with the IGT may provide clinicians with valuable insight about the trajectory of their patients' risk for future drug use. These data suggest a need to augment existing treatment with cognitive restructuring to prevent slips and relapses in comorbid bipolar patients. The lack of a bipolar control group and a modest sample size may limit data interpretations. PMID:24012163

  14. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-04-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of

  15. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

    2011-07-01

    In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the

  16. Predicting the future by explaining the past: constraining carbon-climate feedback using contemporary observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The carbon-climate community has an historic opportunity to make a step-function improvement in climate prediction by using regional constraints to improve mechanistic model representation of carbon cycle processes. Interactions among atmospheric CO2, global biogeochemistry, and physical climate constitute leading sources of uncertainty in future climate. First-order differences among leading models of these processes produce differences in climate as large as differences in aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and fossil fuel combustion. Emergent constraints based on global observations of interannual variations provide powerful constraints on model parameterizations. Additional constraints can be defined at regional scales. Organized intercomparison experiments have shown that uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback arise primarily from model representations of the dependence of photosynthesis on CO2 and drought stress and the dependence of decomposition on temperature. Just as representations of net carbon fluxes have benefited from eddy flux, ecosystem manipulations, and atmospheric CO2, component carbon fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, disturbance) can be constrained at regional scales using new observations. Examples include biogeochemical tracers such as isotopes and carbonyl sulfide as well as remotely-sensed parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence and biomass. Innovative model evaluation experiments will be needed to leverage the information content of new observations to improve process representations as well as to provide accurate initial conditions for coupled climate model simulations. Successful implementation of a comprehensive benchmarking program could have a huge impact on understanding and predicting future climate change.

  17. Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

    PubMed

    Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing. PMID:26771896

  18. Duration of untreated psychosis predicts functional and clinical outcome in children and adolescents with first-episode psychosis: a 2-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Fraguas, David; Del Rey-Mejías, Angel; Moreno, Carmen; Castro-Fornieles, Josefina; Graell, Montserrat; Otero, Soraya; Gonzalez-Pinto, Ana; Moreno, Dolores; Baeza, Inmaculada; Martínez-Cengotitabengoa, Mónica; Arango, Celso; Parellada, Mara

    2014-01-01

    Longer duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) in adult patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) has been associated with poor clinical and social outcomes. We aimed to estimate the influence of DUP on outcome at 2-year follow-up in subjects with an early-onset (less than 18 years of age) FEP of less than 6 months' duration. A total of 80 subjects (31.3% females, mean age 16.0±1.8 years) were enrolled in the study. The influence of DUP on outcome was estimated using multiple regression models (two linear models for influence of DUP on the C-GAF at 2 years and C-GAF change through the follow-up period, and a logistic model for influence of DUP on 41 PANSS remission at 2 years in schizophrenia patients (n=47)). Mean DUP was 65.3±54.7 days. Median DUP was 49.5 days. For the whole sample (n=80), DUP was the only variable significantly related to C-GAF score at 2-year follow-up (Beta=-0.13, p<0.01), while DUP and premorbid adjustment (Beta=-0.01, p<0.01; and Beta=-0.09, p=0.04, respectively) were the only variables significantly related to C-GAF change. In schizophrenia patients, DUP predicted both C-GAF score at 2 years and C-GAF change, while in patients with affective psychosis (n=22), DUP was unrelated to outcome. Lower baseline C-GAF score (OR=0.91, p<0.01) and shorter DUP (OR=0.98, p=<0.01) were the only variables that significantly predicted clinical remission in schizophrenia patients. In conclusion, longer DUP was associated with lower C-GAF at 2 years, less increase in C-GAF, and lower rates of clinical remission in early-onset FEP. Our findings support the importance of early detection programs, which help shorten DUP. PMID:24332406

  19. Feather and faecal corticosterone concentrations predict future reproductive decisions in harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus).

    PubMed

    Hansen, Warren K; Bate, Lisa J; Landry, Devin W; Chastel, Olivier; Parenteau, Charline; Breuner, Creagh W

    2016-01-01

    Understanding sources of reproductive variation can inform management and conservation decisions, population ecology and life-history theory. Annual reproductive variation can drive population growth rate and can be influenced by factors from across the annual cycle (known as carry-over effects). The majority of studies, however, focus solely on the role of current environmental events. Past events often influence future reproductive decisions and success but can be logistically difficult to collect and quantify, especially in migratory species. Recent work indicates that glucocorticoids may prove good indicators to evaluate carry-over effects across life-history transitions. Here, we evaluated three different measures of glucocorticoid physiology (feathers, faeces and plasma) to evaluate the predictability of future breeding decision in the harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus). We collected tail and back feathers, plasma and faeces for glucocorticoid analysis, and fitted female harlequin ducks with very high-frequency transmitters to track their breeding decisions. Both back feathers (moulted immediately before the current season) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolites were identified as important predictive factors of reproductive decisions; high concentrations of glucocorticoid metabolites in back feathers and faeces predicted a higher likelihood of reproductive deferral for the year. Although back and tail feather corticosterone concentrations were correlated, tail feathers (moulted at the end of the previous breeding season) did not predict breeding decisions. Plasma corticosterone concentrations were collected over too broad a time range after capture to be useful in this study. This study demonstrates the utility of non-invasive corticosterone metrics in predicting breeding decisions and supports the use of feathers to measure carry-over effects in migratory birds. With this technique, we identified the prenuptial moult as an important life

  20. Feather and faecal corticosterone concentrations predict future reproductive decisions in harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus)

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Warren K.; Bate, Lisa J.; Landry, Devin W.; Chastel, Olivier; Parenteau, Charline; Breuner, Creagh W.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding sources of reproductive variation can inform management and conservation decisions, population ecology and life-history theory. Annual reproductive variation can drive population growth rate and can be influenced by factors from across the annual cycle (known as carry-over effects). The majority of studies, however, focus solely on the role of current environmental events. Past events often influence future reproductive decisions and success but can be logistically difficult to collect and quantify, especially in migratory species. Recent work indicates that glucocorticoids may prove good indicators to evaluate carry-over effects across life-history transitions. Here, we evaluated three different measures of glucocorticoid physiology (feathers, faeces and plasma) to evaluate the predictability of future breeding decision in the harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus). We collected tail and back feathers, plasma and faeces for glucocorticoid analysis, and fitted female harlequin ducks with very high-frequency transmitters to track their breeding decisions. Both back feathers (moulted immediately before the current season) and faecal glucocorticoid metabolites were identified as important predictive factors of reproductive decisions; high concentrations of glucocorticoid metabolites in back feathers and faeces predicted a higher likelihood of reproductive deferral for the year. Although back and tail feather corticosterone concentrations were correlated, tail feathers (moulted at the end of the previous breeding season) did not predict breeding decisions. Plasma corticosterone concentrations were collected over too broad a time range after capture to be useful in this study. This study demonstrates the utility of non-invasive corticosterone metrics in predicting breeding decisions and supports the use of feathers to measure carry-over effects in migratory birds. With this technique, we identified the prenuptial moult as an important life

  1. Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

    PubMed Central

    Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

  2. Elevated Reward Region Responsivity Predicts Future Substance Use Onset But Not Overweight/Obesity Onset

    PubMed Central

    Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja; Burger, Kyle S.

    2013-01-01

    Background We tested the hypotheses that adolescents who show elevated reward region responsivity are at increased risk for initial onset of overweight/obesity and substance use, which is important because there have been no such prospective tests of the reward surfeit model of these motivated behaviors. Methods One hundred sixty-two adolescents (mean age = 15.3 ± 1.06 years) with healthy weights (mean body mass index = 20.8 ± 1.90) completed functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigms that assessed neural activation in response to receipt and anticipated receipt of palatable food and monetary reward; body fat and substance use were assessed at baseline and 1-year follow-up. Results Elevated caudate (r = .31, p < .001) and putamen (r = .28, p < .001) response to monetary reward predicted substance use onset over 1-year follow-up, but reward circuitry responsivity did not predict future overweight/obesity onset. Adolescents who reported substance use versus abstinence at baseline also showed less caudate (r = –.31, p < .001) response to monetary reward. Discussion Results show that hyper-responsivity of reward circuitry increases risk for future substance use onset, providing novel support for the reward surfeit model. Results also imply that even a limited substance use history was associated with reduced reward region responsivity, extending results from studies that compared substance-dependent individuals with healthy control subjects and suggesting that substance use downregulates reward circuitry. However, aberrant reward region responsivity did not predict initial unhealthy weight gain. PMID:23312561

  3. Walking ability to predict future cognitive decline in old adults: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Kikkert, Lisette H J; Vuillerme, Nicolas; van Campen, Jos P; Hortobágyi, Tibor; Lamoth, Claudine J

    2016-05-01

    Early identification of individuals at risk for cognitive decline may facilitate the selection of those who benefit most from interventions. Current models predicting cognitive decline include neuropsychological and/or biological markers. Additional markers based on walking ability might improve accuracy and specificity of these models because motor and cognitive functions share neuroanatomical structures and psychological processes. We reviewed the relationship between walking ability at one point of (mid) life and cognitive decline at follow-up. A systematic literature search identified 20 longitudinal studies. The average follow-up time was 4.5 years. Gait speed quantified walking ability in most studies (n=18). Additional gait measures (n=4) were step frequency, variability and step-length. Despite methodological weaknesses, results revealed that gait slowing (0.68-1.1 m/sec) preceded cognitive decline and the presence of dementia syndromes (maximal odds and hazard ratios of 10.4 and 11.1, respectively). The results indicate that measures of walking ability could serve as additional markers to predict cognitive decline. However, gait speed alone might lack specificity. We recommend gait analysis, including dynamic gait parameters, in clinical evaluations of patients with suspected cognitive decline. Future studies should focus on examining the specificity and accuracy of various gait characteristics to predict future cognitive decline. PMID:26861693

  4. Predicting current and future peatmoss drought stress: Impact of hydrological complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijp, Jelmer; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd

    2016-04-01

    Northern peatlands sequester enormous amounts of carbon and therefore represent a carbon store of global importance. The vegetation in northern peatlands is dominated by peat-forming bryophytes of the genus Sphagnum. The growth of this carbon fixer, and hence its carbon uptake, strongly depends on the moisture availability in the living moss layer, which is a function of both water table and rewetting by rain. Peatland hydrology models are used to predict how changes in climate may modify the future water balance of peatmoss carpets and influence associated carbon and energy balances. These models, however, differ considerably in the number and type of processes included, which will have yet unknown consequences for peatland drought predictions in a future climate. Here, we assessed the importance of rainwater storage and peat volume change for predicting peatmoss drought projections in northern peatlands using an ensemble of downscaled, bias-corrected climate scenarios for current (1991 - 2020) and future (2061 - 2090) climate. Peatmoss drought projections were compared among four model variants with or without rainwater storage in the peatmoss carpet and peat volume change, which are considered as two important hydrological feedbacks controlling moss moisture availability. The performance of the four model variants was assessed using field data from a site in northern Sweden (Degerö Stormyr, 64°N 19°E). Our results show that adding rainwater storage in the moss layer as well as peat volume change significantly improved model performance; the most complex model had best model performance. Compared to the reference model, including both model extensions reduced the predicted drought frequency experienced by peatmoss with around 50%. Moreover, projected climate change is expected to reduce predicted peatmoss drought stress with about 20% for the studied site. In conclusion, this study shows that including rainwater storage in the peatmoss layer and/or peat volume

  5. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  6. Modeling microbial communities: current, developing, and future technologies for predicting microbial community interaction.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Peter; Hamada, Yuki; Gilbert, Jack

    2012-07-31

    Never has there been a greater opportunity for investigating microbial communities. Not only are the profound effects of microbial ecology on every aspect of Earth's geochemical cycles beginning to be understood, but also the analytical and computational tools for investigating microbial Earth are undergoing a rapid revolution. This environmental microbial interactome, the system of interactions between the microbiome and the environment, has shaped the planet's past and will undoubtedly continue to do so in the future. We review recent approaches for modeling microbial community structures and the interactions of microbial populations with their environments. Different modeling approaches consider the environmental microbial interactome from different aspects, and each provides insights to different facets of microbial ecology. We discuss the challenges and opportunities for the future of microbial modeling and describe recent advances in microbial community modeling that are extending current descriptive technologies into a predictive science. PMID:22465599

  7. Superpartners at LHC and future colliders: predictions from constrained compactified M-theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Sebastian A. R.; Kane, Gordon L.; Zheng, Bob

    2015-07-01

    We study a realistic top-down M-theory compactification with low-scale effective Supersymmetry, consistent with phenomenological constraints. A combination of top-down and generic phenomenological constraints fix the spectrum. Three and only three superpartner channels, , χ {2/0} χ {1/±} and χ {1/+} χ {1/-} (where χ {2/0} , χ {1/±} are Wino-like), are expected to be observable at LHC-14. We also investigate the prospects of finding heavy squarks and Higgsinos at future colliders. Gluino-stop-top, gluino-sbottom-bottom associated production and first generation squark associated production should be observable at a 100 TeV collider, along with direct production of heavy Higgsinos. Within this framework the discovery of a single sparticle is sufficient to determine uniquely the SUSY spectrum, yielding a number of concrete testable predictions for LHC-14 and future colliders, and determination of M 3/2 and thereby other fundamental quantities.

  8. Does Emotional Intelligence at Medical School Admission Predict Future Academic Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Leddy, John J.; Wood, Timothy J.; Puddester, Derek; Moineau, Geneviève

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Medical school admissions committees are increasingly considering noncognitive measures like emotional intelligence (EI) in evaluating potential applicants. This study explored whether scores on an EI abilities test at admissions predicted future academic performance in medical school to determine whether EI could be used in making admissions decisions. Method The authors invited all University of Ottawa medical school applicants offered an interview in 2006 and 2007 to complete the Mayer–Salovey–Caruso EI Test (MSCEIT) at the time of their interview (105 and 101, respectively), then again at matriculation (120 and 106, respectively). To determine predictive validity, they correlated MSCEIT scores to scores on written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) administered during the four-year program. They also correlated MSCEIT scores to the number of nominations for excellence in clinical performance and failures recorded over the four years. Results The authors found no significant correlations between MSCEIT scores and written examination scores or number of failures. The correlations between MSCEIT scores and total OSCE scores ranged from 0.01 to 0.35; only MSCEIT scores at matriculation and OSCE year 4 scores for the 2007 cohort were significantly correlated. Correlations between MSCEIT scores and clinical nominations were low (range 0.12–0.28); only the correlation between MSCEIT scores at matriculation and number of clinical nominations for the 2007 cohort were statistically significant. Conclusions EI, as measured by an abilities test at admissions, does not appear to reliably predict future academic performance. Future studies should define the role of EI in admissions decisions. PMID:24556771

  9. Striatal dynamics explain duration judgments

    PubMed Central

    Gouvêa, Thiago S; Monteiro, Tiago; Motiwala, Asma; Soares, Sofia; Machens, Christian; Paton, Joseph J

    2015-01-01

    The striatum is an input structure of the basal ganglia implicated in several time-dependent functions including reinforcement learning, decision making, and interval timing. To determine whether striatal ensembles drive subjects' judgments of duration, we manipulated and recorded from striatal neurons in rats performing a duration categorization psychophysical task. We found that the dynamics of striatal neurons predicted duration judgments, and that simultaneously recorded ensembles could judge duration as well as the animal. Furthermore, striatal neurons were necessary for duration judgments, as muscimol infusions produced a specific impairment in animals' duration sensitivity. Lastly, we show that time as encoded by striatal populations ran faster or slower when rats judged a duration as longer or shorter, respectively. These results demonstrate that the speed with which striatal population state changes supports the fundamental ability of animals to judge the passage of time. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11386.001 PMID:26641377

  10. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  11. Lower "awake and fed thermogenesis" predicts future weight gain in subjects with abdominal adiposity.

    PubMed

    Piaggi, Paolo; Krakoff, Jonathan; Bogardus, Clifton; Thearle, Marie S

    2013-12-01

    Awake and fed thermogenesis (AFT) is the energy expenditure (EE) of the nonactive fed condition above the minimum metabolic requirement during sleep and is composed of the thermic effect of food and the cost of being awake. AFT was estimated from whole-room 24-h EE measures in 509 healthy subjects (368 Native Americans and 141 whites) while subjects consumed a eucaloric diet. Follow-up data were available for 290 Native Americans (median follow-up time: 6.6 years). AFT accounted for ~10% of 24-h EE and explained a significant portion of deviations from expected energy requirements. Energy intake was the major determinant of AFT. AFT, normalized as a percentage of intake, was inversely related to age and fasting glucose concentration and showed a nonlinear relationship with waist circumference and BMI. Spline analysis demonstrated that AFT becomes inversely related to BMI at an inflection point of 29 kg/m(2). The residual variance of AFT, after accounting for covariates, predicted future weight change only in subjects with a BMI >29 kg/m(2). AFT may influence daily energy balance, is reduced in obese individuals, and predicts future weight gain in these subjects. Once central adiposity develops, a blunting of AFT may occur that then contributes to further weight gain. PMID:23974925

  12. Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery.

    PubMed

    Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M; Swamidass, S Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J

    2014-10-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  13. Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

  14. Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

    PubMed

    Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W; Burnell, Owen W; Fordham, Damien A

    2012-01-01

    The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

  15. Minimal nocturnal oxygen saturation predicts future subclinical carotid atherosclerosis: the Wisconsin sleep cohort.

    PubMed

    Gunnarsson, Sverrir I; Peppard, Paul E; Korcarz, Claudia E; Barnet, Jodi H; Hagen, Erika W; Hla, K Mae; Palta, Mari; Young, Terry; Stein, James H

    2015-12-01

    Previous data on the associations between nocturnal oxygen saturation parameters and carotid atherosclerosis are conflicting. We examined the prospective associations of nocturnal oxygen saturation (SaO2 ) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaques. We used data on 689 Wisconsin sleep cohort participants who had baseline overnight polysomnography followed by carotid ultrasonography a mean (SD) of 7.8 (2.5) years later. Far wall common carotid IMT was measured using B-mode ultrasound. Bilateral common, bifurcation and internal carotid artery segments were evaluated for plaque score. Participants (8) were aged 56 years (55% male); 32% had hypertension and mean body mass index (BMI) was 31 (7) kg m(2). Mean and minimum nocturnal SaO2 were 95% (2) and 86% (7), respectively. Mean percentage sleep time with SaO2 < 90% was 2% (8). Both mean (odds ratio [OR]: 0.60 lower plaque count per 5% higher mean SaO2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38-0.96, P = 0.033) and minimum SaO2 (OR: 0.88 lower plaque count per 5% higher minimum SaO2, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97, P = 0.013) predicted carotid plaque score after adjusting for age, sex and BMI. Minimum SaO2 predicted future plaque score after adding adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors (OR: 0.90 lower plaque count per 5% higher minimum SaO2, 95% CI: 0.81-0.99, P = 0.038). Mean SaO2 was not associated with carotid IMT after CVD risk factor adjustment. We conclude that minimum nocturnal SaO2 is an independent predictor of future carotid plaque burden. Other nocturnal SaO2 parameters are not associated with future carotid IMT or plaques after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors. PMID:26096939

  16. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    PubMed

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. PMID:27272707

  17. Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

  18. Carbohydrate-antigen-125 levels predict hospital stay duration and adverse events at long-term follow-up in Takotsubo cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Francesco; Ferraretti, Armando; Musaico, Francesco; Di Martino, Luigi; Tarantino, Nicola; Ieva, Riccardo; Di Biase, Matteo; Brunetti, Natale Daniele

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible role of carbohydrate-antigen(CA)-125 as prognostic marker at short- and long-term follow-up, in subjects with Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). Sixty-three consecutive subjects with TTC were enrolled in the study and followed for a median 139 days. Circulating levels of CA-125, NT-proBNP, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were evaluated at admission. Duration of hospital stay, incidence of death, re-hospitalization and recurrence of TTC during follow-up were recorded. The mean hospital stay was 8.3 days, adverse events occurred during follow up in 17 % of cases. CA-125 levels at admission are inversely related to LVEF (r -0.30, p < 0.05) and directly related to hospital stay (r 0.29, p < 0.05). CA-125 levels at admission are higher in subjects with adverse events at follow-up (88.9 ± 200.0 vs 20.9 ± 30.0 U/mL, p < 0.05). Rates of incidence of adverse events are proportionally increased with CA-125 tertiles (0, 6, 11 % respectively, p for trend <0.01), at survival analysis (Log Rank p < 0.05) and after correction for age, gender, LVEF and NT-proBNP levels in multivariable Cox analysis (p < 0.05). CA-125 levels <10 U/ml are predictors of adverse events at follow up with 91 % sensitivity, 52 % specificity, 29 % positive predictive power, and 96 % negative predictive power. Increased CA-125 admission levels are associated with a longer hospital stay, a lower LVEF, and a higher risk of adverse events during follow up. CA-125 might be useful for early risk stratification of subjects with TTC. PMID:26832351

  19. Modeling Spatial Recharge in the Arid Southern Okanagan Basin and Impacts of Future Predicted Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Toews, M. W.

    2007-12-01

    Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of evapotranspiration rates on temperature, and potential shifts in the precipitation amounts and timing. In this study, future predicted climate change from three GCMs (CGCM1 GHG+A, CGCM3.1 A2, and HadCM3 A2) are used to evaluate the sensitivity of recharge in the Oliver region of the Okanagan Valley, south- central British Columbia, where annual precipitation is approximately 300~mm. Temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), while precipitation and solar radiation changes were estimated directly from the GCM data. Results for the region suggest that temperature will increase up to 4°C by the end of the century. Precipitation is expected to decrease in the spring, and increase in the fall. Solar radiation may decrease in the late summer. Shifts in climate, from present to future-predicted, were applied to the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator to generate daily stochastic weather series. Recharge was modeled spatially using output from the HELP hydrologic model applied to one-dimensional soil columns. An extensive valley-bottom soil database was used to determine both the spatial variation and vertical assemblage of soil horizons in the Oliver region. Soil hydraulic parameters were estimated from soil descriptions using pedotransfer functions through the ROSETTA program. Leaf area index (LAI) was estimated from ground-truthed Landsat 5 TM imagery, and surface slope was estimated from a digital elevation model. Irrigation application rates were modified for each climate scenario based on estimates of seasonal crop water demand. Daily irrigation was added to precipitation in irrigation districts using proportions of crop types along with daily climate and evapotranspiration data from LARS-WG. The two dominant crop classes are orchard (including peaches, cherries and apples) and vineyards (grapes). Recharge in

  20. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    PubMed Central

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not. PMID:23770685

  1. The UT 8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event & Future Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benecchi, Susan D.; Noll, K.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.; Chanover, N.

    2013-10-01

    A mutual event of the Kuiper Belt binary system (79360) Sila-Nunam was observed over 15.47 hours on UT 8 February 2013 by a coordinated effort at four telescopes: Telescopio Nationale Galileo in the Canary Islands, the du Pont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, ARC at Apache Point Observatory and the IRTF on Mauna Kea. It is the first full event observed from start to finish for this binary system. The lightcurve is consistent with two objects of similar, but perhaps not identical, size and albedo. We will present the results from this event and predictions for future events which have been refined by this and other mutual event observations obtained since the events began.

  2. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  3. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks.

    PubMed

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not. PMID:23770685

  4. Resistance to sunitinib in renal cell carcinoma: From molecular mechanisms to predictive markers and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Joosten, S C; Hamming, L; Soetekouw, P M; Aarts, M J; Veeck, J; van Engeland, M; Tjan-Heijnen, V C

    2015-01-01

    The introduction of agents that inhibit tumor angiogenesis by targeting vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) signaling has made a significant impact on the survival of patients with metastasized renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Sunitinib, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor of the VEGF receptor, has become the mainstay of treatment for these patients. Although treatment with sunitinib substantially improved patient outcome, the initial success is overshadowed by the occurrence of resistance. The mechanisms of resistance are poorly understood. Insight into the molecular mechanisms of resistance will help to better understand the biology of RCC and can ultimately aid the development of more effective therapies for patients with this infaust disease. In this review we comprehensively discuss molecular mechanisms of resistance to sunitinib and the involved biological processes, summarize potential biomarkers that predict response and resistance to treatment with sunitinib, and elaborate on future perspectives in the treatment of metastasized RCC. PMID:25446042

  5. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment.

    PubMed

    Gullo, Charles A

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  6. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    PubMed Central

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  7. Predicting Future Temperate and Boreal of Growing Season Start With a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaduk, J.

    2008-12-01

    Controlled ecological experiments show that temperate and boreal trees require chilling in winter for rapid leaf out in spring. If the amount of chilling falls below a species specific threshold then an exponentially increasing amount of warming is required to initiate leaf out - potentially actually delaying it in a future warmer climate. The boreal areas could be particularly affected as climate predictions indicate strong warming in these regions. Moreover, currently a large part of the land carbon sink is located in temperate and boreal regions and a changing growing season start might have a large impact on this important sink. Warming-chilling models for green-up, which have been calibrated with remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index from the years 1983-1995, indicate that in future the chilling requirements reduce the rate of advance of the start of the growing season to earlier times compared to advance rates in the last two decades. Climate scenarios with large warming (IPCC A2 scenarios) show lower advance rates of green- up to earlier times than predictions with a smaller warming (B1 scenarios) due to the reduced chilling in high warming scenarios. When incorporated into a coupled land-surface carbon cycle model based on JULES (the Joint-UK-Land Environment Simulator) the chilling requirements lead to a early growing season photosynthetic carbon up that is correspondingly lower than in simulations where the start of the growing season as simply modelled as responding to warming only. Thus the phenological response in effect provides a positive feedback to global warming.

  8. Prediction of the run out extents of the Slano Blato landslide for future debris flow events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Askarinejad, Amin; Leu, Pascal; Macek, Matej; Petkovsek, Ana; Springman, Sarah

    2013-04-01

    The Slano Blato landslide has a volume of about 1 mio m3 and is located in the western part of Slovenia. It has been considered to be a potential natural hazard for the village of Lokavec for more than 200 years. Several mud flows, exhibiting a range of volumes and velocities, have originated from the landslide body since the year 2000, when the landslide was reactivated due to an intense rainfall event. A series of obstacles, including safety dams and deposition ponds, have been constructed for the remediation of the landslide. These obstacles are designed to absorb and contain future debris flow hazard. A prerequisite to any risk analysis is to establish the vulnerability to the hazard event. The aim of this work is to simulate possible future debris flow scenarios in order to predict the run out distances, flow heights, impact pressures and potential effects on the downstream village buildings and infrastructure. The simulations were carried out using the RAMMS program (RApid Mass MovementS, www.ramms.slf.ch). A three dimensional terrain model of the landslide area and the downstream zones, with or without the inclusion of the obstacles, was made for the simulations and different scenarios concerning the released volume, the internal friction and viscosity of the sliding mass were studied. The results indicate that low viscosity mudflows with a volume of 5,000 m3 endanger some parts of Lokavec village. However, the simulations with volumes of 15,000 and 50,000 m3 predict catastrophic effects in terms of either impact pressures or deposition heights for the majority of houses. Moreover, the simulations confirmed that the choice of the material properties (internal friction and viscosity), the characteristics of the release hydrograph, event location, and natural or man-made obstacles play major roles in the run out distances and impact pressures.

  9. The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on judged annoyance. [noise predictions and noise measurements of jet aircrafts and human reactions to the noise intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, K. P.

    1979-01-01

    The effect of the duration of jet aircraft flyover sounds on humans and the annoyance factor are examined. A nine point numerical category scaling technique is utilized for the study. Changes in the spectral characteristics of aircraft sounds caused by atmospheric attenuation are discussed. The effect of Doppler shifts using aircraft noises with minimal pure tone content is reported. The spectral content of sounds independent of duration and Doppler shift are examined by analysis of variance.

  10. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xian-Ge; Jin, Yuqing; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Mao, Jian-Feng; Li, Yue

    2015-01-01

    Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis) has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species. PMID:26132163

  11. Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

    PubMed

    Bruno, John G

    2015-01-01

    Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products. PMID:25913927

  12. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  13. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xian-Ge; Jin, Yuqing; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Mao, Jian-Feng; Li, Yue

    2015-01-01

    Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis) has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species´ distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species. PMID:26132163

  14. Use of Electrocardiography to Predict Future Development of Hypertension in the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Murai, Shunsuke; Yamashita, Sumiyo; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Cardiac muscle responds to increased afterload by developing hypertrophy. During the early stages of hypertension, the heart can be transiently, but frequently, exposed to increased afterload. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) assessed by electrocardiography (ECG) can be used to predict future development of hypertension. Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were calculated using ECG in 5770 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a physical checkup (age 52.7 ± 11.3 years). LVH was defined as a Sokolow–Lyon voltage of >3.8 mV or a Cornell product of >2440 mm × ms. After baseline examination, participants were followed up with the endpoint being the development of hypertension. During the median follow-up period of 1089 days (15,789 person-years), hypertension developed in 1029 participants (65.2/1000 person-years). A Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher incidence of hypertension in participants with LVH than in those without LVH as assessed by Sokolow–Lyon voltage or Cornell product (P < 0.0001 for both). The hazard ratios for incident hypertension in participants with LVH defined by Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.90, P < 0.01) and 1.34 (95% CI 1.09–1.65, P < 0.01), respectively, after adjustment for possible risk factors. Furthermore, in multivariable Cox hazard analysis, where Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product were taken as continuous variables, both indices were independent predictors of future hypertension (P < 0.0001). Both Sokolow–Lyon voltage and Cornell product are novel predictors of future development of hypertension in the general population. PMID:27124047

  15. You'll change more than I will: Adults' predictions about their own and others' future preferences.

    PubMed

    Renoult, Louis; Kopp, Leia; Davidson, Patrick S R; Taler, Vanessa; Atance, Cristina M

    2016-01-01

    It has been argued that adults underestimate the extent to which their preferences will change over time. We sought to determine whether such mispredictions are the result of a difficulty imagining that one's own current and future preferences may differ or whether it also characterizes our predictions about the future preferences of others. We used a perspective-taking task in which we asked young people how much they liked stereotypically young-person items (e.g., Top 40 music, adventure vacations) and stereotypically old-person items (e.g., jazz, playing bridge) now, and how much they would like them in the distant future (i.e., when they are 70 years old). Participants also made these same predictions for a generic same-age, same-sex peer. In a third condition, participants predicted how much a generic older (i.e., age 70) same-sex adult would like items from both categories today. Participants predicted less change between their own current and future preferences than between the current and future preferences of a peer. However, participants estimated that, compared to a current older adult today, their peer would like stereotypically young items more in the future and stereotypically old items less. The fact that peers' distant-future estimated preferences were different from the ones they made for "current" older adults suggests that even though underestimation of change of preferences over time is attenuated when thinking about others, a bias still exists. PMID:26211536

  16. ANTHELMINTICS: THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Richard J.; Verma, Saurabh.; Choudhary, Shivani; Kashyap, Sudhanva; Zheng, Melanie Abongwa Fudan; Robertson, Alan P.

    2015-01-01

    ‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ When we look at drugs that are used to control parasites, we see that new knowledge has been created (discovered) about their modes of action. This knowledge will allow us to predict combinations of drugs which can be used together rationally to increase the spectrum of action and to slow the development of anthelmintic resistance. In this paper we comment on some recent observations of ours on the modes of action of emodepside, diethylcarbamazine and tribendimidine. Emodepside increases the activation of a SLO-1 K+ current inhibiting movement, and diethylcarbamazine has a synergistic effect on the effect of emodepside on the SLO-1 K+ current, increasing the size of the response. The combination may be considered for further testing for therapeutic use. Tribendimidine is a selective cholinergic nematode B-subtype nAChR agonist, producing muscle depolarization and contraction. It has different subtype selectivity to levamisole and may be effective in the presence of some types of levamisole resistance. The new information about the modes of action may aid the design of rational drug combinations designed to slow the development of resistance or increase the spectrum of action. PMID:26138153

  17. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.

    PubMed

    Rindermann, Heiner; Pichelmann, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  18. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  19. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    PubMed

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  20. Exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies: Key findings and future recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Baxter, Lisa K.; Dionisio, Kathie L.; Burke, Janet; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Sarnat, Jeremy A.; Hodas, Natasha; Rich, David Q.; Turpin, Barbara J.; Jones, Rena R.; Mannshardt, Elizabeth; Kumar, Naresh; Beevers, Sean D.; Özkaynak, Halûk

    2014-01-01

    Many epidemiologic studies of the health effects of exposure to ambient air pollution use measurements from central-site monitors as their exposure estimate. However, measurements from central-site monitors may lack the spatial and temporal resolution required to capture exposure variability in a study population, thus resulting in exposure error and biased estimates. Articles in this dedicated issue examine various approaches to predict or assign exposures to ambient pollutants. These methods include: combining existing central-site pollution measurements with local- and/or regional-scale air quality models to create new or “hybrid” models for pollutant exposure estimates, and using exposure models to account for factors such as infiltration of pollutants indoors and human activity patterns. Key findings from these articles are summarized to provide lessons learned and recommendations for additional research on improving exposure estimation approaches for future epidemiological studies. In summary, when compared to use of central-site monitoring data, the enhanced spatial resolution of air quality or exposure models can have an impact on resultant health effect estimates, especially for pollutants derived from local sources such as traffic (e.g. EC, CO, and NOx). In addition, the optimal exposure estimation approach also depends upon the epidemiological study design. We recommend that future research develop pollutant-specific infiltration data (including for PM species), and improve existing data on human time-activity patterns, and exposure to local source (e.g. traffic), in order to enhance human exposure modeling estimates. We also recommend comparing how various approaches to exposure estimation characterize relationships between multiple pollutants in time and space, and investigating the impact of improved exposure estimates in chronic health studies. PMID:24084756

  1. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    PubMed

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

  2. Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

    PubMed Central

    Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

  3. Alcohol Challenge Responses Predict Future Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms: A 6-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    King, Andrea C.; McNamara, Patrick J.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Cao, Dingcai

    2014-01-01

    Background Propensity for alcohol misuse may be linked to an individuals’ response to alcohol. This study examined the role of alcohol response phenotypes to future drinking problems. Methods One hundred four young heavy social drinkers participated in a within-subject, double-blind, placebo-controlled laboratory alcohol challenge study with 6-year follow-up. Participants were examined for subjective responses before and after receiving an intoxicating dose of alcohol (.8 g/kg) or a placebo beverage, given in random order. Follow-up was conducted in 5 waves over 6 years after the sessions to assess drinking behaviors and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. Retention was high with 98% (509 of 520) of possible follow-ups completed. Results Greater sensitivity to alcohol, in terms of stimulation and rewarding effects (like, want more) and lower sensitivity to alcohol sedation predicted greater number of AUD symptoms through 6 years of follow-up. Cluster analyses revealed that for half the sample, increasing levels of stimulation and liking were predictors of more AUD symptoms with the other half divided between those showing like and want more and want more alone as significant predictors. Conclusions The findings extend previous findings and offer new empirical insights into the propensity for excessive drinking and alcohol problems. Heightened alcohol stimulation and reward sensitivity robustly predicted more alcohol use disorder symptoms over time associated with greater binge-drinking frequency. These drinking problems were maintained and progressed as these participants were entering their third decade of life, a developmental interval when continued alcohol misuse becomes more deviant. PMID:24094754

  4. Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose for this workshop can be summed up by the question: Are there relevant analogs to planetary (meaning the Moon and Mars) to be found in polar exploration on Earth? The answer in my opinion is yes or else there would be no reason for this workshop. However, I think some background information would be useful to provide a context for my opinion on this matter. As all of you are probably aware, NASA has been set on a path that, in its current form, will eventually lead to putting human crews on the surface of the Moon and Mars for extended (months to years) in duration. For the past 50 V 60 years, starting not long after the end of World War II, exploration of the Antarctic has accumulated a significant body of experience that is highly analogous to our anticipated activities on the Moon and Mars. This relevant experience base includes: h Long duration (1 year and 2 year) continuous deployments by single crews, h Established a substantial outpost with a single deployment event to support these crews, h Carried out long distance (100 to 1000 kilometer) traverses, with and without intermediate support h Equipment and processes evolved based on lessons learned h International cooperative missions This is not a new or original thought; many people within NASA, including the most recent two NASA Administrators, have commented on the recognizable parallels between exploration in the Antarctic and on the Moon or Mars. But given that level of recognition, relatively little has been done, that I am aware of, to encourage these two exploration communities to collaborate in a significant way. [Slide 4] I will return to NASA s plans and the parallels with Antarctic traverses in a moment, but I want to spend a moment to explain the objective of this workshop and the anticipated products. We have two full days set aside for this workshop. This first day will be taken up with a series of presentations prepared by individuals with experience that extends back as far as the

  5. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  6. Prediction of future disposal of end-of-life refrigerators containing CFC-11.

    PubMed

    Yazici, Burcu; Can, Zehra S; Calli, Baris

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to predict the number of refrigerators containing CFC-11 blown isolation foam and the amount of CFC-11 banked in these refrigerators. By using a Weibull-based survival function, the number of CFC-11 containing and still-functioning refrigerators was estimated to be approximately 1.6 million in 2013 in Turkey. In order to determine the amount of CFC-11 in the isolation foam of these refrigerators, polyurethane (PU) foam samples were taken from a refrigerator manufactured in 1993 and the quantity of CFC-11 was analyzed by a GC-MS. It was determined that 113-195 mg CFC-11/g PU remains in the PU foam depending on the location such as door, sides, top and bottom. Knowing that a mid-sized refrigerator contains 4 kg PU on average, the total amount of PU foam to be disposed of is 6344 tons when the CFC-11 containing refrigerators in Turkey become obsolete in the near future. Furthermore, 717-1237 tons of CFC-11 are expected to be banked in the PU foam of these refrigerators which will exert an equivalent amount of ozone depleting potential (ODP). In addition, the global warming potential will vary between 3.4 and 5.9 million tons of CO2. PMID:24112854

  7. Strongly lensed neutral hydrogen emission: detection predictions with current and future radio interferometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deane, R. P.; Obreschkow, D.; Heywood, I.

    2015-09-01

    Strong gravitational lensing provides some of the deepest views of the Universe, enabling studies of high-redshift galaxies only possible with next-generation facilities without the lensing phenomenon. To date, 21-cm radio emission from neutral hydrogen has only been detected directly out to z ˜ 0.2, limited by the sensitivity and instantaneous bandwidth of current radio telescopes. We discuss how current and future radio interferometers such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will detect lensed H I emission in individual galaxies at high redshift. Our calculations rely on a semi-analytic galaxy simulation with realistic H I discs (by size, density profile and rotation), in a cosmological context, combined with general relativistic ray tracing. Wide-field, blind H I surveys with the SKA are predicted to be efficient at discovering lensed H I systems, increasingly so at z ≳ 2. This will be enabled by the combination of the magnification boosts, the steepness of the H I luminosity function at the high-mass end, and the fact that the H I spectral line is relatively isolated in frequency. These surveys will simultaneously provide a new technique for foreground lens selection and yield the highest redshift H I emission detections. More near term (and existing) cm-wave facilities will push the high-redshift H I envelope through targeted surveys of known lenses.

  8. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  9. Working memory involved in predicting future outcomes based on past experiences.

    PubMed

    Dretsch, Michael N; Tipples, Jason

    2008-02-01

    Deficits in working memory have been shown to contribute to poor performance on the Iowa Gambling Task [IGT: Bechara, A., & Martin, E.M. (2004). Impaired decision making related to working memory deficits in individuals with substance addictions. Neuropsychology, 18, 152-162]. Similarly, a secondary memory load task has been shown to impair task performance [Hinson, J., Jameson, T. & Whitney, P. (2002). Somatic markers, working memory, and decision making. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioural Neuroscience, 2, 341-353]. In the present study, we investigate whether the latter findings were due to increased random responding [Franco-Watkins, A. M., Pashler, H., & Rickard, T. C. (2006). Does working memory load lead to greater impulsivity? Commentary on Hinson, Jameson, and Whitney's (2003). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 32, 443-447]. Participants were tested under Low Working Memory (LWM; n=18) or High Working Memory (HWM; n=17) conditions while performing the Reversed IGT in which punishment was immediate and reward delayed [Bechara, A., Dolan, S., & Hindes, A. (2002). Decision making and addiction (part II): Myopia for the future or hypersensitivity to reward? Neuropsychologia, 40, 1690-1705]. In support of a role for working memory in emotional decision making, compared to the LWM condition, participants in the HWM condition made significantly greater number of disadvantageous selections than that predicted by chance. Performance by the HWM group could not be fully explained by random responding. PMID:17628270

  10. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    PubMed

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively. PMID:24010996

  11. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  12. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  13. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  14. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere, but future urban growth has not been considered widely to predict the future regional climate change because it is hard to predict the future land-use changes. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on Cellular Automata (CA) technique to predict the future land-use (especially, urban growth) changes. Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the research area in this study, is the most explosively developed region in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. SLEUTH was calibrated to know the pattern and process of the urban growth and expansion in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from WAter Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) historical trends of urban growth (SC1), (2) future urban policy and plan (SC2), (3) ecological protection and growth (SC3). We used the FNL data of NCEP/NCAR for one month, Oct. in 2005 to evaluate the performance of the WRF on the long-term climate simulation and compared results of WRF with the ASOS/AWS (Automated Surface Observing Systems and Automated Weather System) observation data of the Korea Meteorology Administration. Based on the accuracy of the model, we performed various numerical experiments by the urban growth scenarios using the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany on Oct. for 5 years (2046-2050), respectively. The difference of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA consequently caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase in the urban area. PBL height with a maximum of about 200m also appeared locally in newly

  15. Remote science support during MARS2013: testing a map-based system of data processing and utilization for future long-duration planetary missions.

    PubMed

    Losiak, Anna; Gołębiowska, Izabela; Orgel, Csilla; Moser, Linda; MacArthur, Jane; Boyd, Andrea; Hettrich, Sebastian; Jones, Natalie; Groemer, Gernot

    2014-05-01

    MARS2013 was an integrated Mars analog field simulation in eastern Morocco performed by the Austrian Space Forum between February 1 and 28, 2013. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the system of data processing and utilization adopted by the Remote Science Support (RSS) team during this mission. The RSS team procedures were designed to optimize operational efficiency of the Flightplan, field crew, and RSS teams during a long-term analog mission with an introduced 10 min time delay in communication between "Mars" and Earth. The RSS workflow was centered on a single-file, easy-to-use, spatially referenced database that included all the basic information about the conditions at the site of study, as well as all previous and planned activities. This database was prepared in Google Earth software. The lessons learned from MARS2013 RSS team operations are as follows: (1) using a spatially referenced database is an efficient way of data processing and data utilization in a long-term analog mission with a large amount of data to be handled, (2) mission planning based on iterations can be efficiently supported by preparing suitability maps, (3) the process of designing cartographical products should start early in the planning stages of a mission and involve representatives of all teams, (4) all team members should be trained in usage of cartographical products, (5) technical problems (e.g., usage of a geological map while wearing a space suit) should be taken into account when planning a work flow for geological exploration, (6) a system that helps the astronauts to efficiently orient themselves in the field should be designed as part of future analog studies. PMID:24788035

  16. Relative role of parameter vs. climate uncertainty for predictions of future Southeastern U.S. pine carbon cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jersild, A.; Thomas, R. Q.; Brooks, E.; Teskey, R. O.; Wynne, R. H.; Arthur, D.; Gonzalez, C.; Thomas, V. A.; Fox, T. D.; Smallman, L.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions of the how forest productivity and carbon sequestration will respond to climate change are essential for assisting land managers in adapting to future climate. However, current predictions can include considerable uncertainty that is often not well quantified. To address the need for better quantification of uncertainty, we calculated and compared parameter and climate prediction uncertainty for predictions of Southeastern U.S. pine forest productivity. We used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based data assimilation technique to fuse regionally widespread and diverse datasets with the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth model (3PG) model. The datasets incorporated include biomass observations from forest research plots that are part of the Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) project, photosynthesis and evaporation observations from loblolly pine Ameriflux sites, and productivity responses to elevated CO2 from the Duke Free Air C site. These spatially and temporally diverse data sets give our unique analysis a more accurately measured uncertainty by constraining complimentary components of the model. In our analysis, parameter uncertainty was quantified using simulations that integrate across the posterior parameter distributions, while climate model uncertainty was quantified using downscaled RCP 8.5 simulations from twenty different CMIP5 climate models. Overall, we found that the uncertainty in future productivity of Southeastern U.S. managed pine forests that was associated with parameterization is comparable to the uncertainty associated with climate simulations. Our results indicate that reducing parameterization in ecosystem model development can improve future predictions of forest productivity and carbon sequestration, but uncertainties in future climate predictions also need to be properly quantified and communicated to forest owners and managers.

  17. The Dorsal Visual System Predicts Future and Remembers Past Eye Position.

    PubMed

    Morris, Adam P; Bremmer, Frank; Krekelberg, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Eye movements are essential to primate vision but introduce potentially disruptive displacements of the retinal image. To maintain stable vision, the brain is thought to rely on neurons that carry both visual signals and information about the current direction of gaze in their firing rates. We have shown previously that these neurons provide an accurate representation of eye position during fixation, but whether they are updated fast enough during saccadic eye movements to support real-time vision remains controversial. Here we show that not only do these neurons carry a fast and accurate eye-position signal, but also that they support in parallel a range of time-lagged variants, including predictive and post dictive signals. We recorded extracellular activity in four areas of the macaque dorsal visual cortex during a saccade task, including the lateral and ventral intraparietal areas (LIP, VIP), and the middle temporal (MT) and medial superior temporal (MST) areas. As reported previously, neurons showed tonic eye-position-related activity during fixation. In addition, they showed a variety of transient changes in activity around the time of saccades, including relative suppression, enhancement, and pre-saccadic bursts for one saccade direction over another. We show that a hypothetical neuron that pools this rich population activity through a weighted sum can produce an output that mimics the true spatiotemporal dynamics of the eye. Further, with different pooling weights, this downstream eye position signal (EPS) could be updated long before (<100 ms) or after (<200 ms) an eye movement. The results suggest a flexible coding scheme in which downstream computations have access to past, current, and future eye positions simultaneously, providing a basis for visual stability and delay-free visually-guided behavior. PMID:26941617

  18. The Dorsal Visual System Predicts Future and Remembers Past Eye Position

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Adam P.; Bremmer, Frank; Krekelberg, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Eye movements are essential to primate vision but introduce potentially disruptive displacements of the retinal image. To maintain stable vision, the brain is thought to rely on neurons that carry both visual signals and information about the current direction of gaze in their firing rates. We have shown previously that these neurons provide an accurate representation of eye position during fixation, but whether they are updated fast enough during saccadic eye movements to support real-time vision remains controversial. Here we show that not only do these neurons carry a fast and accurate eye-position signal, but also that they support in parallel a range of time-lagged variants, including predictive and post dictive signals. We recorded extracellular activity in four areas of the macaque dorsal visual cortex during a saccade task, including the lateral and ventral intraparietal areas (LIP, VIP), and the middle temporal (MT) and medial superior temporal (MST) areas. As reported previously, neurons showed tonic eye-position-related activity during fixation. In addition, they showed a variety of transient changes in activity around the time of saccades, including relative suppression, enhancement, and pre-saccadic bursts for one saccade direction over another. We show that a hypothetical neuron that pools this rich population activity through a weighted sum can produce an output that mimics the true spatiotemporal dynamics of the eye. Further, with different pooling weights, this downstream eye position signal (EPS) could be updated long before (<100 ms) or after (<200 ms) an eye movement. The results suggest a flexible coding scheme in which downstream computations have access to past, current, and future eye positions simultaneously, providing a basis for visual stability and delay-free visually-guided behavior. PMID:26941617

  19. Host response to cuckoo song is predicted by the future risk of brood parasitism

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Risk assessment occurs over different temporal and spatial scales and is selected for when individuals show an adaptive response to a threat. Here, we test if birds respond to the threat of brood parasitism using the acoustical cues of brood parasites in the absence of visual stimuli. We broadcast the playback of song of three brood parasites (Chalcites cuckoo species) and a sympatric non-parasite (striated thornbill, Acanthiza lineata) in the territories of superb fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus) during the peak breeding period and opportunistic breeding period. The three cuckoo species differ in brood parasite prevalence and the probability of detection by the host, which we used to rank the risk of parasitism (high risk, moderate risk, low risk). Results Host birds showed the strongest response to the threat of cuckoo parasitism in accordance with the risk of parasitism. Resident wrens had many alarm calls and close and rapid approach to the playback speaker that was broadcasting song of the high risk brood parasite (Horsfield’s bronze-cuckoo, C. basalis) across the year (peak and opportunistic breeding period), some response to the moderate risk brood parasite (shining bronze-cuckoo, C. lucidus) during the peak breeding period, and the weakest response to the low risk brood parasite (little bronze-cuckoo, C. minutillus). Playback of the familiar control stimulus in wren territories evoked the least response. Conclusion Host response to the threat of cuckoo parasitism was assessed using vocal cues of the cuckoo and was predicted by the risk of future parasitism. PMID:23692969

  20. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

  1. Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hua; Guo, Jiali; Zhang, Zengxin; Xu, Chong-Yu

    2013-08-01

    Global warming has brought great pressure on the environment and livelihood conditions in Sudan and South Sudan. It is desirable to analyze and predict the change of critical climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, which will provide valuable reference results for future water resources planning and management in the region. The aims of this study are to test the applicability of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model in downscaling daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures in Sudan and South Sudan and use it to predict future changes of precipitation; Tmin and Tmax for nine stations in Sudan and South Sudan are based on the SRA2 scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results showed that (1) the LARS-WG model produces good performance in downscaling daily precipitation and excellent performance in downscaling Tmax and Tmin in the study region; (2) downscaled precipitation from the prediction of seven GCMs showed great inconsistency in these two regions, which illustrates the great uncertainty in GCMs' results in the regions; (3) predicted precipitation in rainy season JJA (June, July, and August) based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs showed a decreasing trend in the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099 in Sudan; however, an increasing trend can be found in SON (September, October, and November) in the future; (4) precipitation in South Sudan has an increasing trend in most seasons in the future except in MAM (March, April, and May) season in 2011-2030; and (5) predictions from seven GCMs showed a similar and continuous increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin in all three future periods, which will bring severe negative influence on improving livelihoods and reducing poverty in Sudan and South Sudan.

  2. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  3. Long Duration Sorbent Testbed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, David F.; Knox, James C.; Long, David A.; Miller, Lee; Cmaric, Gregory; Thomas, John

    2016-01-01

    The Long Duration Sorbent Testbed (LDST) is a flight experiment demonstration designed to expose current and future candidate carbon dioxide removal system sorbents to an actual crewed space cabin environment to assess and compare sorption working capacity degradation resulting from long term operation. An analysis of sorbent materials returned to Earth after approximately one year of operation in the International Space Station's (ISS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) indicated as much as a 70% loss of working capacity of the silica gel desiccant material at the extreme system inlet location, with a gradient of capacity loss down the bed. The primary science objective is to assess the degradation of potential sorbents for exploration class missions and ISS upgrades when operated in a true crewed space cabin environment. A secondary objective is to compare degradation of flight test to a ground test unit with contaminant dosing to determine applicability of ground testing.

  4. Progression of mild Alzheimer’s disease: knowledge and prediction models required for future treatment strategies

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Knowledge of longitudinal progression in mild Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is required for the evaluation of disease-modifying therapies. Our aim was to observe the effects of long-term cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) therapy in mild AD patients in a routine clinical setting. Methods This was a prospective, open-label, non-randomized, multicenter study of ChEI treatment (donepezil, rivastigmine or galantamine) conducted during clinical practice. The 734 mild AD patients (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score 20 to 26) were assessed at baseline and then semi-annually over three years. Outcome measures included the MMSE, Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog), Clinician’s Interview-Based Impression of Change (CIBIC) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) scale. Results After three years of ChEI therapy, 31% (MMSE) and 33% (ADAS-cog) of the patients showed improved/unchanged cognitive ability, 33% showed improved/unchanged global performance and 14% showed improved/unchanged IADL capacity. Higher mean dose of ChEI and lower educational level were both predictors of more positive longitudinal cognitive and functional outcomes. Older participants and those with a better IADL score at baseline exhibited a slower rate of cognitive decline, whereas younger participants and those with higher cognitive status showed more preserved IADL ability over time. Gender and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype showed inconsistent results. Prediction models using the abovementioned scales are presented. Conclusions In naturalistic mild AD patients, a marked deterioration in IADL compared with cognitive and global long-term outcomes was observed, indicating the importance of functional assessments during the early stages of the disease. The participants’ time on ChEI treatment before inclusion in studies of new therapies might affect their rate of decline and thus the comparisons of changes in scores between various studies. An

  5. Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

    2009-04-01

    Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future

  6. Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

    2009-04-01

    Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future

  7. Forming Attitudes that Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude-Behavior Relation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracin, Dolores

    2006-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of…

  8. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  9. Predicting Premeditation: Future Behavior Is Seen as More Intentional than Past Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Zachary C.; Caruso, Eugene M.; Bartels, Daniel M.

    2012-01-01

    People's intuitions about the underlying causes of past and future actions might not be the same. In 3 studies, we demonstrate that people judge the same behavior as more intentional when it will be performed in the future than when it has been performed in the past. We found this temporal asymmetry in perceptions of both the strength of an…

  10. What Do Children Know about Their Futures: Do Children's Expectations Predict Outcomes in Middle Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallerod, Bjorn

    2011-01-01

    Are children's statements about their futures related to outcomes in middle age? In 1966 almost 13,500 children ages 12-13 were asked whether they thought their futures would be worse, similar or better as compared to others of their own age. It was shown that children with low, and surprisingly high, expectations did suffer from increased…

  11. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

    PubMed

    Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. PMID:25703827

  12. Internal and Predictive Validity of the French Health of the Nation Outcome Scales: Need for Future Directions

    PubMed Central

    Golay, Philippe; Basterrechea, Louis; Conus, Philippe; Bonsack, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) is a widely used measure of health and social functioning of people with mental illness. The goals of this study were to verify the internal validity of the one factor and several four-factor scoring structures and to evaluate the predictive validity of HoNOS items with regards to duration of hospitalization, probability of readmission in the following year and time before readmission. 6175 hospital stays at the department of psychiatry of Lausanne University Hospital were screened and the first HoNOS of each patient was taken into account (N = 2722). Data were analyzed through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and the predictive validity of HoNOS items was evaluated with two approaches: item level regressions and latent class analysis (LCA). CFA indicated that the suggested factor structures were not supported by the data. Predictive validity of the 12 items was weak but LCA revealed five distinct and meaningful profiles that were related to length of stay or readmission. HoNOS may be more adapted to the evaluation of patients case-mix rather than to the individual level and concepts such as predictive validity may be more appropriate than internal validity to guide its use. PMID:27483015

  13. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  14. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) –Development History, Model Capabilities and Future Enhancements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was initiated in August 1985 to develop new generation water erosion prediction technology for use by federal agencies involved in soil and water conservation and environmental planning and assessment. Developed by USDA-ARS as a replacement for empirically...

  15. Predicted Megafire Locations under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorentz, K. A.; Drury, S.; Raffuse, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past several years, large high-intensity wildfires, or "megafires," have set records for the greatest burn area and most costly fires in several U.S. states. Megafires can release many tons of fine particles and other pollutants that are hazardous to human health over a short period of time. Under future climate scenarios, megafires may increase in some regions. The danger of smoke exposure from megafires in the future depends on several spatial factors, including the likelihood of megafire occurrence, emission rates, air transport patterns, and population density. We combined climatological transport modeling, smoke emission rates, and population density to determine the areas within the U.S. where a megafire would result in the greatest human exposure to smoke. Coupled with a synthesis of recent studies on the likelihood of megafire occurrence under future climate scenarios, these results provide a view of future smoke management and emergency response needs.

  16. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  17. Predictive Value of National Football League Scouting Combine on Future Performance of Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

    PubMed

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Willick, Stuart E

    2016-05-01

    The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine is held each year before the NFL Draft to measure athletic abilities and football skills of college football players. Although the NFL Scouting Combine can provide the NFL teams with an opportunity to evaluate college players for the upcoming NFL Draft, its value for predicting future success of players has been questioned. This study examined whether the NFL Combine measures can predict future performance of running backs (RBs) and wide receivers (WRs) in the NFL. We analyzed the 2000-09 Combine data of RBs (N = 276) and WRs (N = 447) and their on-field performance for the first 3 years after the draft and over their entire careers in the NFL, using correlation and regression analyses, along with a principal component analysis (PCA). The results of the analyses showed that, after accounting for the number of games played, draft position, height (HT), and weight (WT), the time on 10-yard dash was the most important predictor of rushing yards per attempt of the first 3 years (p = 0.002) and of the careers (p < 0.001) in RBs. For WRs, vertical jump was found to be significantly associated with receiving yards per reception of the first 3 years (p = 0.001) and of the careers (p = 0.004) in the NFL, after adjusting for the covariates above. Furthermore, HT was most important in predicting future performance of WRs. The analyses also revealed that the 8 athletic drills in the Combine seemed to have construct validity. It seems that the NFL Scouting Combine has some value for predicting future performance of RBs and WRs in the NFL. PMID:27100168

  18. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    SciTech Connect

    Petticrew, Mark . E-mail: mark@msoc.mrc.gla.ac.uk; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-15

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers.

  19. It is hard to predict the future: the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Ackerman, G A

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future. PMID:16796060

  20. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  1. PREDICTING REGIONAL ALLERGY HOTSPOTS IN FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS – PUTTING THE WHERE & WHEN ON WHEEZING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research addresses both the effects and mechanisms by which current and future climate conditions affect the risk factors related to allergic airway disease in humans. Our intensive sampling of pollen production, output, and potency in ecologically distinct ragweed popul...

  2. Enduring Risk? Old Criminal Records and Predictions of Future Criminal Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurlychek, Megan C.; Brame, Robert; Bushway, Shawn D.

    2007-01-01

    It is well accepted that criminal records impose collateral consequences on offenders. Such records affect access to public housing, student financial aid, welfare benefits, and voting rights. An axiom of these policies is that individuals with criminal records--even old criminal records--exhibit significantly higher risk of future criminal…

  3. The Crystal Ball Project: Predicting the Future of Composition and the Preparation of Composition Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Crag; Ericsson, Patricia Freitag

    2014-01-01

    In this article the authors peer into current elementary classrooms and college composition courses in 2020 to envision what K-12 and composition curricula can do now to ensure today's students are prepared for those future composition classes. The authors interviewed veteran (20 or more years) K-6 teachers in a small university town and…

  4. Intelligence Tests and School Psychology: Predicting the Future by Studying the Past.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Alan S.

    2000-01-01

    Throughout its history, IQ testing has been at the center of controversy; that role continues to the present. The future of IQ testing for school psychology probably rests on the resolution of these controversies as well as on the ultimate interface of clinical assessment and computer technology. (Author/MKA)

  5. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-01-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems. PMID:27185194

  6. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records.

    PubMed

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A; Dudley, Joel T

    2016-01-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name "deep patient". We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems. PMID:27185194

  7. The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale; Gyawali, Rabi

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

  8. Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

  9. Commentary: Children and Predictive Genomic Testing: Disease Prevention, Research Protection, and Our Future

    PubMed Central

    Tercyak, Kenneth P.; Wilfond, Benjamin S.

    2011-01-01

    Genetic testing offered by direct-to-consumer companies—herein referred to as “predictive genomic testing”—has come under federal scrutiny. Critics claim testing yields uninterpretable and potentially harmful information. Supporters assert individuals have a right to this information, which could catalyze preventive health actions. Despite contentions that predictive genomic testing is a tool of primary disease prevention, little discussion has focused on its use with children. This partly stems from concerns expressed in existing professional guidelines about the potential for psychological and behavioral harm to children engendered by predictive genetic tests for Mendelian diseases. Conducting research to understand the actual benefits and harms is important for policy development and practice guidance and can be ethically justified within the pediatric regulatory framework of research that offers a prospect of direct benefit. Child health psychologists are well poised to contribute to this research effort, and promote the translation of genomic discoveries to improve pediatric medicine. PMID:21816897

  10. Early Prodromal Symptoms Can Predict Future Psychosis in Familial High-Risk Youth

    PubMed Central

    Tandon, Neeraj; Montrose, Debra; Shah, Jai; Rajarethinam, RP; Diwadkar, Vaibhav A.; Keshavan, Matcheri S.

    2011-01-01

    Background Efforts to predict psychosis in individuals at high risk for schizophrenia have focused on the identification of sub-threshold clinical criteria and neurobiological markers, including neuropsychological assessment, structural and functional brain imaging, and psychophysiological testing. We sought to evaluate the relative utility of psychosis proneness measures for prospective prediction of psychotic disorders in a group of young relatives at familial risk for schizophrenia. Methods We examined the receiver operating characteristics of sub-threshold symptoms in predicting conversion to psychosis in a group of 97 young first- and second-degree relatives of persons with schizophrenia over a 2-year period. Towards this end, we utilized the Structured Interview of Prodromal Symptoms to derive measures of two of the four Scale of Prodromal Symptoms subscales (positive and disorganized) and the Chapman Magical Ideation and Perceptual Aberration scales. These four measures were, together, taken to reflect a putative index of psychosis proneness. Results Eleven of the 97 subjects developed a psychotic disorder over 2 years of follow-up. Seventeen of the 97 subjects tested positive on this index of psychosis proneness at baseline and of these 10 converted to psychosis. The sensitivity and specificity of the test were 91 percent and 92 percent respectively. The positive predictive value of the test was 59 percent and its negative predictive value was 99 percent. Addition of measures of cognitive or social function to the index decreased its predictive ability, reducing its specificity and/or sensitivity. Conclusions A relatively simple set of clinical measures can be utilized to prospectively identify familial high-risk individuals who convert to psychosis with high specificity and sensitivity. Implications for the proposed addition of an “Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome” in DSM-5 are discussed. PMID:22056319

  11. Do Cardiovascular Responses to Active and Passive Coping Tasks predict Future Blood Pressure over a 10-Month Later?

    PubMed

    Yuenyongchaiwat, Kornanong; Baker, Ian; Maratos, Frankie; Sheffield, David

    2016-01-01

    The study examined whether cardiovascular responses to active or passive coping tasks and single or multiple tasks predicted changes in resting blood pressure (BP) over a ten-month period. Heart rate (HR), BP, cardiac output (CO), and total peripheral resistance (TPR) were measured at rest, and during mental stress tests (mental arithmetic, speech, and cold pressor tasks). A total of 104 eligible participants participated in the initial study, and 77 (74.04%) normotensive adult participants' resting BP were re-evaluated at ten-month follow-up. Regression analyses indicated that after adjustment for baseline BP, initial age, gender, body mass index, family history of cardiovascular disease, and current cigarette smoking, heighted systolic blood pressure (SBP) and HR responses to an active coping task (mental arithmetic) were associated with increased future SBP (ΔR2 = .060, ΔR2 = .045, respectively). Further, aggregated SBP responsivity (over the three tasks) to the predictor models resulted in significant, but smaller increases in ΔR2 accounting for .040 of the variance of follow-up SBP. These findings suggest that cardiovascular responses to active coping tasks predict future SBP. Further, compared with single tasks, the findings revealed that SBP responses to three tasks were less predictive compared to an individual task (i.e., mental arithmetic). Of importance, hemodynamic reactivity (namely CO and TPR) did not predict future BP suggesting that more general psychophysiological processes (e.g., inflammation, platelet aggregation) may be implicated, or that BP, but not hemodynamic reactivity may be a marker of hypertension. PMID:26972632

  12. Combining Expressed Vocational Choice and Measures of Career Development to Predict Future Occupational Field.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noeth, Richard J.

    A study was designed to test predictability of actual occupation from expressed vocational choice when combined separately with measures of career development. Subjects were 1,994 members of a national study of high school career development who were working more than half-time three years later (1976). Expressed vocational choice and measures of…

  13. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  14. Postpartum thyroiditis: an autoimmune thyroid disorder which predicts future thyroid health

    PubMed Central

    Keely, Erin Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Postpartum thyroiditis is a potentially destructive lymphocytic thyroiditis occurring in approximately 8% of the pregnant population, making it the most common endocrine disorder associated with pregnancy. This autoimmune thyroid disorder is precipitated by the postpartum immunological rebound that follows the partial immunosuppression of pregnancy, in individuals already at risk of autoimmune thyroid disease. The manifestations of postpartum thyroiditis are usually not present at the six-week postpartum visit and thus it is important that all physicians be aware of the risks, presentation and intervention required for this common disorder. Postpartum thyroiditis is a strong predictor of future thyroid health and it is essential that women with a history of postpartum thyroiditis be screened regularly, especially prior to a future pregnancy. Selenium supplementation has recently been identified as a potential means to prevent postpartum thyroiditis in women at risk but further studies are required before recommendations for its use can be made.

  15. Do PCL-R scores from state or defense experts best predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders?

    PubMed

    Boccaccini, Marcus T; Turner, Darrel B; Murrie, Daniel C; Rufino, Katrina A

    2012-06-01

    In a recent study of sex offender civil commitment proceedings, Murrie et al. (Psychol Public Policy Law 15:19-53, 2009) found that state-retained experts consistently assigned higher PCL-R total scores than defense-retained experts for the same offenders (Cohen's d > .83). This finding raises an important question about the validity of these discrepant scores: Which type of score, state or defense evaluator, provides the most useful information about risk? We examined the ability of PCL-R total scores from state and defense evaluators to predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders (N = 38). For comparison, we also examined predictive validity when two state experts evaluated the same offender (N = 32). Agreement between evaluators was low for cases with opposing experts (ICCA,1 = .43 to .52) and for cases with two state experts (ICCA,1 = .40). Nevertheless, scores from state and defense experts demonstrated similar levels of predictive validity (AUC values in the .70 range), although scores from different types of state evaluators (corrections-contracted vs. prosecution-retained) did not. The finding of mean differences between opposing evaluator scores, but similar levels of predictive validity, suggests that scores from opposing experts in SVP cases may need to be interpreted differently depending on who assigned them. Findings have important implications for understanding how rater disagreement may relate to predictive validity. PMID:22667805

  16. Reconstruction of past and prediction of future erythemal UV-radiation at two sites in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weihs, Philipp; Rieder, Harald; Wagner, Jochen; Simic, Stana; Dameris, Martin

    2010-05-01

    Since the discovery of anthropogenic ozone depletion more than 30 year ago, the scientific community has shown an increasing interest in UV-B radiation and started to monitor UV-radiation. However, difficulties involved in the routine operation and maintenance of the instruments have limited the length of reliable data records to about two decades. Further the number of places where they were measured, result in a set of observations too short and too sparse for a good understanding of past UV changes. Moreover state of the art climate models do not calculate future scenarios of UV-doses. Therefore detailed information about past and future UV-trends are lacking. Reconstruction techniques are indispensable to derive long-term time series of UV-radiation and fill this gap. Apart from the astronomical parameters, like solar zenith angle and sun-earth-distance, UV radiation is strongly influenced by clouds, ozone and surface albedo. We developed and evaluated a reconstruction technique for UV-doses (from regional climate model output) that first calculates the UV-doses under clear-sky condition and afterwards applies corrections in order to take cloud effects into account. Since the input parameters cloud cover, total ozone column and surface albedo are available from the Regional Climate Models REMO and E39/C (DLR-model), we applied our reconstruction technique for the past and for future scenarios using REMO and E39/C data as input. Hence we simulated a seamless UV long-term time series from the past to the future. Our method was applied for the high alpine station Hoher Sonnblick (3106m) situated in the Austrian Alps and for Vienna (170m) in the Eastern part of the Austrian territory. We first analyse the accuracy of the obtained backward reconstruction and intercompare the modelled and measured input parameters ozone, cloud modification factor, and ground albedo. Several approaches to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction are presented. Then we present the

  17. GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Ou, Mi-Lim

    2004-01-01

    This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in ths direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated

  18. Multivariate Radiological-Based Models for the Prediction of Future Knee Pain: Data from the OAI

    PubMed Central

    Galván-Tejada, Jorge I.; Celaya-Padilla, José M.; Treviño, Victor; Tamez-Peña, José G.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, the potential of X-ray based multivariate prognostic models to predict the onset of chronic knee pain is presented. Using X-rays quantitative image assessments of joint-space-width (JSW) and paired semiquantitative central X-ray scores from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a case-control study is presented. The pain assessments of the right knee at the baseline and the 60-month visits were used to screen for case/control subjects. Scores were analyzed at the time of pain incidence (T-0), the year prior incidence (T-1), and two years before pain incidence (T-2). Multivariate models were created by a cross validated elastic-net regularized generalized linear models feature selection tool. Univariate differences between cases and controls were reported by AUC, C-statistics, and ODDs ratios. Univariate analysis indicated that the medial osteophytes were significantly more prevalent in cases than controls: C-stat 0.62, 0.62, and 0.61, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. The multivariate JSW models significantly predicted pain: AUC = 0.695, 0.623, and 0.620, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Semiquantitative multivariate models predicted paint with C-stat = 0.671, 0.648, and 0.645 at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Multivariate models derived from plain X-ray radiography assessments may be used to predict subjects that are at risk of developing knee pain. PMID:26504490

  19. Validation of Afterbody Aeroheating Predictions for Planetary Probes: Status and Future Work

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael J.; Brown, James L.; Sinha, Krishnendu; Candler, Graham V.; Milos, Frank S.; Prabhu, DInesh K.

    2005-01-01

    A review of the relevant flight conditions and physical models for planetary probe afterbody aeroheating calculations is given. Readily available sources of afterbody flight data and published attempts to computationally simulate those flights are summarized. A current status of the application of turbulence models to afterbody flows is presented. Finally, recommendations for additional analysis and testing that would reduce our uncertainties in our ability to accurately predict base heating levels are given.

  20. Print-Speech Convergence Predicts Future Reading Outcomes in Early Readers.

    PubMed

    Preston, Jonathan L; Molfese, Peter J; Frost, Stephen J; Mencl, W Einar; Fulbright, Robert K; Hoeft, Fumiko; Landi, Nicole; Shankweiler, Donald; Pugh, Kenneth R

    2016-01-01

    Becoming a skilled reader requires building a functional neurocircuitry for printed-language processing that integrates with spoken-language-processing networks. In this longitudinal study, functional MRI (fMRI) was used to examine convergent activation for printed and spoken language (print-speech coactivation) in selected regions implicated in printed-language processing (the reading network). We found that print-speech coactivation across the left-hemisphere reading network in beginning readers predicted reading achievement 2 years later beyond the effects of brain activity for either modality alone; moreover, coactivation effects accounted for variance in later reading after controlling for initial reading performance. Within the reading network, effects of coactivation were significant in bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and left inferior parietal cortex and fusiform gyrus. The contribution of left and right IFG differed, with more coactivation in left IFG predicting better achievement but more coactivation in right IFG predicting poorer achievement. Findings point to the centrality of print-speech convergence in building an efficient reading circuitry in children. PMID:26589242

  1. Lookup Tables for Predicting CHF and Film-Boiling Heat Transfer: Past, Present, and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K. H.; Guo, Y.; Vasic, A.; El Nakla, M.; Peng, S.W.; Yang, J.; Cheng, S.C.

    2005-10-15

    Lookup tables (LUTs) have been used widely for the prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) and film-boiling heat transfer for water-cooled tubes. LUTs are basically normalized data banks. They eliminate the need to choose between the many different CHF and film-boiling heat transfer prediction methods available.The LUTs have many advantages; e.g., (a) they are simple to use, (b) there is no iteration required, (c) they have a wide range of applications, (d) they may be applied to nonaqueous fluids using fluid-to-fluid modeling relationships, and (e) they are based on a very large database. Concerns associated with the use of LUTs include (a) there are fluctuations in the value of the CHF or film-boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) with pressure, mass flux, and quality, (b) there are large variations in the CHF or the film-boiling HTC between the adjacent table entries, and (c) there is a lack or scarcity of data at certain flow conditions.Work on the LUTs is continuing. This will resolve the aforementioned concerns and improve the LUT prediction capability. This work concentrates on better smoothing of the LUT entries, increasing the database, and improving models at conditions where data are sparse or absent.

  2. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  3. Productivity in Physical and Chemical Science Predicts the Future Economic Growth of Developing Countries Better than Other Popular Indices

    PubMed Central

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences. PMID:23776640

  4. Anger-induced T-wave alternans predicts future ventricular arrhythmias in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators

    PubMed Central

    Lampert, Rachel; Shusterman, Vladimir; Burg, Matthew; McPherson, Craig; Batsford, William; Goldberg, Anna; Soufer, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine whether T-wave alternans (TWA) induced by anger in a laboratory setting predicts future ventricular arrhythmias (VT/VF) in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs). Background Anger can precipitate spontaneous VT/VF, and induce TWA. Whether anger-induced TWA predicts future arrhythmias is unknown. Methods Sixty-two patients with ICDs underwent ambulatory ECG during a mental stress protocol, three months post-implant. TWA was analyzed using time-domain methods. After ≥ 1 year follow-up, ICD stored data was reviewed to determine incidence of ICD-terminated VT/VF. Results Patients with ICD-terminated arrhythmias during follow-up (N=10) had higher TWA induced by anger, 13.2uV (iqr 9.3-16), compared to 9.3uV (7.5-11.5) (p<0.01). Patients in the highest quartile of anger-induced TWA (>11.9uV, N=15) were more likely to experience arrhythmias by one year than those in the lower quartiles, (33% versus 4%), and during extended follow-up (40% versus 9%, p<0.01 for both.) In multivariable regression controlling for ejection fraction, prior clinical arrhythmia, and wide QRS, anger-induced TWA remained a significant predictor of arrhythmia, with likelihood in the top quartile 10.8 times that of other patients (CI 1.6-113, p<0.05.) Conclusion Anger-induced TWA predicts future ventricular arrhythmias in patients with ICDs, suggesting that emotion-induced repolarization instability may be one mechanism linking stress and sudden death. Whether there is a clinical role for anger-induced TWA testing requires further study. PMID:19245968

  5. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    PubMed

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change. PMID:25719448

  6. Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence. PMID:22359670

  7. Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denkins, Pamela; Badhwar, Gautam; Obot, Victor; Wilson, Bobby; Jejelewo, Olufisayo

    2001-08-01

    NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far, the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space, exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation

  8. Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denkins, P.; Badhwar, G.; Obot, V.; Wilson, B.; Jejelewo, O.

    2001-01-01

    NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation

  9. Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights.

    PubMed

    Denkins, P; Badhwar, G; Obot, V; Wilson, B; Jejelewo, O

    2001-01-01

    NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation

  10. An optimization principle for determining movement duration.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Hirokazu; Krakauer, John W; Qian, Ning

    2006-06-01

    Movement duration is an integral component of motor control, but nearly all extant optimization models of motor planning prefix duration instead of explaining it. Here we propose a new optimization principle that predicts movement duration. The model assumes that the brain attempts to minimize movement duration under the constraint of meeting an accuracy criterion. The criterion is task and context dependent but is fixed for a given task and context. The model determines a unique duration as a trade-off between speed (time optimality) and accuracy (acceptable endpoint scatter). We analyzed the model for a linear motor plant, and obtained a closed-form equation for determining movement duration. By solving the equation numerically with specific plant parameters for the eye and arm, we found that the model can reproduce saccade duration as a function of amplitude (the main sequence), and arm-movement duration as a function of the ratio of target distance to size (Fitts's law). In addition, it explains the dependency of peak saccadic speed on amplitude and the dependency of saccadic duration on initial eye position. Furthermore, for arm movements, the model predicts a scaling relationship between peak velocity and distance and a reduction in movement duration with a moderate increase in viscosity. Finally, for a linear plant, our model predicts a neural control signal identical to that of the minimum-variance model set to the same movement duration. This control signal is a smooth function of time (except at the endpoint), in contrast to the discontinuous bang-bang control found in the time-optimal control literature. We suggest that one aspect of movement planning, as revealed by movement duration, may be to assign an endpoint accuracy criterion for a given task and context. PMID:16571740

  11. Predicting Future Hourly Residential Electrical Consumption: A Machine Learning Case Study

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, Richard E; New, Joshua Ryan; Parker, Lynne Edwards

    2012-01-01

    Whole building input models for energy simulation programs are frequently created in order to evaluate specific energy savings potentials. They are also often utilized to maximize cost-effective retrofits for existing buildings as well as to estimate the impact of policy changes toward meeting energy savings goals. Traditional energy modeling suffers from several factors, including the large number of inputs required to characterize the building, the specificity required to accurately model building materials and components, simplifying assumptions made by underlying simulation algorithms, and the gap between the as-designed and as-built building. Prior works have attempted to mitigate these concerns by using sensor-based machine learning approaches to model energy consumption. However, a majority of these prior works focus only on commercial buildings. The works that focus on modeling residential buildings primarily predict monthly electrical consumption, while commercial models predict hourly consumption. This means there is not a clear indicator of which techniques best model residential consumption, since these methods are only evaluated using low-resolution data. We address this issue by testing seven different machine learning algorithms on a unique residential data set, which contains 140 different sensors measurements, collected every 15 minutes. In addition, we validate each learner's correctness on the ASHRAE Great Energy Prediction Shootout, using the original competition metrics. Our validation results confirm existing conclusions that Neural Network-based methods perform best on commercial buildings. However, the results from testing our residential data set show that Feed Forward Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Linear Regression methods perform poorly, and that Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) with Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) performs best - a technique not previously applied to this domain.

  12. Prediction of calculated future cardiovascular disease by monocyte count in an asymptomatic population

    PubMed Central

    Waterhouse, Deirdre F; Cahill, Ronan A; Sheehan, Frances; McCreery, CJ

    2008-01-01

    Introduction Although atherogenesis is clearly entwined with systemic inflammation, the risk-predictive relationship between preclinical and overt cardiovascular disease (CVD) and systemic white blood cell (WBC) subtypes remains unclear. Implication of an association would greatly facilitate cardiac risk prediction, assessment and monitoring. Methods 1383 asymptomatic individuals (795 men, 588 women) attending for executive health screening were examined clinically as well as with phlebotomy and exercise stress testing to determine their ten-year risk of developing overt cardiovascular disease (as estimated by both Framingham and SCORE calculations). The significance of their association with overall WBC and subtypes were determined using both univariate and multiple regression modeling. Results Of all WBC subtypes, monocyte count was found to have the strongest, independent relationship with overall CVD risk by backwards linear regression modeling (Framingham: β = 0.057; p = 0.03; SCORE: β = 0.128; p = <0.0005). Independent associations with BMI (β = 5.214; p = <0.0005), waist circumference (β = 21.866; p = <0.0005), systolic blood pressure (β = 10.738; p = 0.003), HDL cholesterol (β = −0.639; p = <0.0005) and triglyceride concentrations (β = 0.787; p = <0.0005) were also evident. Overall WBC along with neutrophils, lymphocytes and basophil subfractions were variably (but less strongly) associated with such dependents and outcome measures. Conclusions In conclusion, monocyte count, a simple inexpensive test, may provide useful predictive cardiovascular risk information in asymptomatic individuals to inform and guide attempts at interrupting CVD development at a preclinical stage. PMID:18629357

  13. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  14. Future Predictions of U.S. East Coast Winter Storms and Associated Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colle, B.; Zhang, Z.; Roberts, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Northeast U.S. is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather from winter cyclones (heavy precipitation, wind, and storm surge). This presentation will highlight the future changes (up to year 2098) of cool season (November through March) extratropical cyclones over the Northeast U.S. using the Coupled Intercomparison Modeling Project (CMIP5) as well as an ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) members down to 20-km grid spacing downscaled using NCEP reanalysis and a few CMIP5 models. The 6-h output from CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and CMIP5 models was used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the historical and future WRF runs, respectively. Some processes responsible for the model differences and future cyclone changes in cyclone intensity along the U.S. East coast were diagnosed using storm-relative composites of temperature, winds, precipitation, etc… within a 20 x 20 degrees box around each cyclone center. For example, during 2069-2098 (for RCP8.5), there is a significant increase in cyclone-relative precipitation, especially over continent at middle and high latitudes (20-40% by the later 21st century). This precipitation increase is mainly for the strong and moderate cyclones, which get more intense in several models, therefore suggesting the importance of latent heating with the additional moisture in a warmer climate. Since many of the CMIP5 models do a realistic job with extratropical cyclones, we developed a generalized parametric downscaling technique to create a point-based storm surge time series for the cool season using 6-h CMIP5 data. The statistical model for New York City is trained and evaluated using Oct-March 10-m wind and mean sea level pressure from the NARR renanalysis between 1979-2012. Overall, there is a significant decrease in the ensemble mean number of >= 1.0 m surge events. However, if one includes a sea-level rise of at least 0.5 m during the next several decades, all models have a

  15. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruun, Jesper; Brewe, Eric

    2013-12-01

    The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1) communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category), (2) communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category), and (3) social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category) in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI) scores. We find highly significant correlations (p<0.001) between network centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network), the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively) with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation (r=0.45) with

  16. Predicting future space near-IR grism surveys using the WFC3 infrared spectroscopic parallels survey

    SciTech Connect

    Colbert, James W.; Atek, Hakim; Teplitz, Harry; Rafelski, Marc; Bunker, Andrew; Ross, Nathaniel; Malkan, Matt; Scarlata, Claudia; Bedregal, Alejandro G.; Dominguez, Alberto; Masters, Dan; Siana, Brian; Dressler, Alan; McCarthy, Patrick; Henry, Alaina; Martin, Crystal L.

    2013-12-10

    We present near-infrared emission line counts and luminosity functions from the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallels (WISP) program for 29 fields (0.037 deg{sup 2}) observed using both the G102 and G141 grism. Altogether we identify 1048 emission line galaxies with observed equivalent widths greater than 40 Å, 467 of which have multiple detected emission lines. We use simulations to correct for significant (>20%) incompleteness introduced in part by the non-dithered, non-rotated nature of the grism parallels. The WISP survey is sensitive to fainter flux levels ((3-5) × 10{sup –17} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}) than the future space near-infrared grism missions aimed at baryonic acoustic oscillation cosmology ((1-4) × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}), allowing us to probe the fainter emission line galaxies that the shallower future surveys may miss. Cumulative number counts of 0.7 < z < 1.5 galaxies reach 10,000 deg{sup –2} above an Hα flux of 2 × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}. Hα-emitting galaxies with comparable [O III] flux are roughly five times less common than galaxies with just Hα emission at those flux levels. Galaxies with low Hα/[O III] ratios are very rare at the brighter fluxes that future near-infrared grism surveys will probe; our survey finds no galaxies with Hα/[O III] < 0.95 that have Hα flux greater than 3 × 10{sup –16} erg s{sup –1} cm{sup –2}. Our Hα luminosity function contains a comparable number density of faint line emitters to that found by the Near IR Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer near-infrared grism surveys, but significantly fewer (factors of 3-4 less) high-luminosity emitters. We also find that our high-redshift (z = 0.9-1.5) counts are in agreement with the high-redshift (z = 1.47) narrowband Hα survey of HiZELS (Sobral et al.), while our lower redshift luminosity function (z = 0.3-0.9) falls slightly below their z = 0.84 result. The evolution

  17. Predicting Future Space Near-IR Grism Surveys Using the WFC3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallels Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbert, James W.; Teplitz, Harry; Atek, Hakim; Bunker, Andrew; Rafelski, Marc; Ross, Nathaniel; Scarlata, Claudia; Bedregal, Alejandro G.; Dominguez, Alberto; Dressler, Alan; Henry, Alaina; Malkan, Matt; Martin, Crystal L.; Masters, Dan; McCarthy, Patrick; Siana, Brian

    2013-12-01

    We present near-infrared emission line counts and luminosity functions from the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallels (WISP) program for 29 fields (0.037 deg2) observed using both the G102 and G141 grism. Altogether we identify 1048 emission line galaxies with observed equivalent widths greater than 40 Å, 467 of which have multiple detected emission lines. We use simulations to correct for significant (>20%) incompleteness introduced in part by the non-dithered, non-rotated nature of the grism parallels. The WISP survey is sensitive to fainter flux levels ((3-5) × 10-17 erg s-1 cm-2) than the future space near-infrared grism missions aimed at baryonic acoustic oscillation cosmology ((1-4) × 10-16 erg s-1 cm-2), allowing us to probe the fainter emission line galaxies that the shallower future surveys may miss. Cumulative number counts of 0.7 < z < 1.5 galaxies reach 10,000 deg-2 above an Hα flux of 2 × 10-16 erg s-1 cm-2. Hα-emitting galaxies with comparable [O III] flux are roughly five times less common than galaxies with just Hα emission at those flux levels. Galaxies with low Hα/[O III] ratios are very rare at the brighter fluxes that future near-infrared grism surveys will probe; our survey finds no galaxies with Hα/[O III] < 0.95 that have Hα flux greater than 3 × 10-16 erg s-1 cm-2. Our Hα luminosity function contains a comparable number density of faint line emitters to that found by the Near IR Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer near-infrared grism surveys, but significantly fewer (factors of 3-4 less) high-luminosity emitters. We also find that our high-redshift (z = 0.9-1.5) counts are in agreement with the high-redshift (z = 1.47) narrowband Hα survey of HiZELS (Sobral et al.), while our lower redshift luminosity function (z = 0.3-0.9) falls slightly below their z = 0.84 result. The evolution in both the Hα luminosity function from z = 0.3-1.5 and the [O III] luminosity function from z = 0.7-2.3 is

  18. Predicting global invasion risks: a management tool to prevent future introductions.

    PubMed

    Fletcher, D H; Gillingham, P K; Britton, J R; Blanchet, S; Gozlan, R E

    2016-01-01

    Predicting regions at risk from introductions of non-native species and the subsequent invasions is a fundamental aspect of horizon scanning activities that enable the development of more effective preventative actions and planning of management measures. The Asian cyprinid fish topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva has proved highly invasive across Europe since its introduction in the 1960s. In addition to direct negative impacts on native fish populations, P. parva has potential for further damage through transmission of an emergent infectious disease, known to cause mortality in other species. To quantify its invasion risk, in regions where it has yet to be introduced, we trained 900 ecological niche models and constructed an Ensemble Model predicting suitability, then integrated a proxy for introduction likelihood. This revealed high potential for P. parva to invade regions well beyond its current invasive range. These included areas in all modelled continents, with several hotspots of climatic suitability and risk of introduction. We believe that these methods are easily adapted for a variety of other invasive species and that such risk maps could be used by policy-makers and managers in hotspots to formulate increased surveillance and early-warning systems that aim to prevent introductions and subsequent invasions. PMID:27199300

  19. Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate.

    PubMed

    Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C

    2016-07-01

    Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary. PMID:26489417

  20. Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C.

    2016-07-01

    Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

  1. Predicting global invasion risks: a management tool to prevent future introductions

    PubMed Central

    Fletcher, D. H.; Gillingham, P. K.; Britton, J. R.; Blanchet, S.; Gozlan, R. E.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting regions at risk from introductions of non-native species and the subsequent invasions is a fundamental aspect of horizon scanning activities that enable the development of more effective preventative actions and planning of management measures. The Asian cyprinid fish topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva has proved highly invasive across Europe since its introduction in the 1960s. In addition to direct negative impacts on native fish populations, P. parva has potential for further damage through transmission of an emergent infectious disease, known to cause mortality in other species. To quantify its invasion risk, in regions where it has yet to be introduced, we trained 900 ecological niche models and constructed an Ensemble Model predicting suitability, then integrated a proxy for introduction likelihood. This revealed high potential for P. parva to invade regions well beyond its current invasive range. These included areas in all modelled continents, with several hotspots of climatic suitability and risk of introduction. We believe that these methods are easily adapted for a variety of other invasive species and that such risk maps could be used by policy-makers and managers in hotspots to formulate increased surveillance and early-warning systems that aim to prevent introductions and subsequent invasions. PMID:27199300

  2. Simulation studies of the impact of future observing systems on weather prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.; Kalnay, E.; Baker, W. E.; Susskind, J.; Reuter, D.; Halem, M.

    1985-01-01

    The features and preliminary results from a simulation system being implemented to develop realistic estimates of the impacts future data acquisition systems will have on large-scale numerical weather simulation are described. The new instruments may include advanced passive IR and microwave satellite sensors, as well as active scatterometer and lidar sounders. A main goal of the impact study is to identify those sensor systems which will provide the most benefit. The realism of the study is being enhanced by assimilating as much real-world data as possible and generating global weather maps for comparison with maps generated on the bases on the projected new, higher resolution data. Early results have indicated a preference for higher resolution wind data than for temperature data for making 1-5 day forecasts. The prime instrument candidate for collecting the data is lidar, provided the sensor resolution design goals are met.

  3. Can we predict future change from long-term watershed studies? Fraser Experimental Forest case study

    SciTech Connect

    Stottlemyer, R.; Troendle, C.A.

    1995-06-01

    The Fraser Experimental Forest (FEF) has nine gauged watersheds, some monitored continuously since the early 1940`s. Hydrographs are dominated by snowmelt with >70% discharge variation accounted for by snow water equivalent. Mean annual flow is cyclic over a ten-year period. Climate models suggest that peak streamwater discharge and its timing respond to temperature change. FEF results suggest simulated climate changes are unlikely to shift the hydrograph magnitude outside of normal variability, but the time of peak discharge is sensitive to anticipated climate change. The fate of atmospheric contaminant input has been studied >10 y. Hydrologic variation accounts for most of the variation in surface water ion concentration and flux. The FEF record suggests that watershed-level nutrient study will not be very sensitive to projected future change in atmospheric contaminant input or climate.

  4. Overview and future prediction of radiation (UV/EB) curing technology for coatings and adhesives

    SciTech Connect

    Armbruster, D.

    1995-12-31

    Radiation (UV-ultraviolet/EB-electron beam) curing is an innovative manufacturing technology using specialty formulated coatings and adhesives which provide high performance properties and compliance with environmental regulations for low VOC emission and cleaner air. In this presentation, an overview of the current status of radiation curing technology for coatings and adhesives will include a review of the chemistry and UV/EB curing equipment technology evolution for free radical acrylate/methacrylate and cationic epoxy/vinyl ether polymerizations. Also discussed will be an analysis of the technology limitations and advancement opportunities in radiation curing as a future prognosis for expansion of this high (10-15%) growth innovative technology into new applications and markets.

  5. Adolescent involvement in anti-social and delinquent behaviours: predicting future injury risk.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lisa; Chapman, Rebekah; Sheehan, Mary

    2012-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to challenge the broadly based focus of injury prevention strategies towards concern with the needs of young adolescents who engage in multiple anti-social and delinquent behaviours. Five hundred and forty 13-14-year olds reported on injuries and truancy, violence, illegal road behaviours, drug, and alcohol use. Engagement in these behaviours was found to contribute to the likelihood of an injury. Those engaging in the most anti-social and delinquent behaviours were around five times more likely to report medically-treated injuries in the past three months. Their likelihood of future injury was 1.8 times more likely when they were followed up three months later. The engagement in multiple delinquent and illegal behaviours thus significantly increased the likelihood of injury and identifies a particularly vulnerable group. The findings also suggest that reaching these young people represents a key target for change strategies in injury prevention programs. PMID:22664718

  6. Antipsychotic withdrawal-induced relapse predicts future relapses in institutionalized adults with severe intellectual disability.

    PubMed

    Janowsky, David S; Barnhill, L Jarrett; Khalid, Abdul S; Davis, John M

    2008-08-01

    Severe intellectual and developmental disabilities are frequently associated with aggression toward self and others, destruction of property, and disruption. Antipsychotic medications are a mainstay of treatment of such behaviors. National and state guidelines suggest stopping these medications or decreasing their dosages when possible if patients have maintained stability. The current study evaluated the likelihood of future antipsychotic drug withdrawal-induced relapses in those individuals where such a relapse had occurred previously. Subjects were 57 institutionalized adults with severe or profound intellectual disability. Between 1990 and 2000, each had experienced an initial activation of maladaptive aggressive behaviors after an attempt at antipsychotic drug withdrawal and/or termination. Quarterly behavioral reports were evaluated to determine whether subsequent antipsychotic drug withdrawal attempts were also associated with future relapses. Initial relapse was followed by subsequent antipsychotic drug withdrawal attempts in 49 of the 57 individuals. Between 1990 and 2005, 28.6% of these 49 subjects had experienced 1, 38.7% had 2, 20.4% had 3, and 8.2% had 4 additional relapses. Two (4.1%) had not relapsed. Eight individuals remained on antipsychotic agents without a subsequent withdrawal attempt. By the end of 2005, only 4 (7%) of the 57 individuals had become antipsychotic drug free, 22.8% were receiving first-generation antipsychotic agents alone, 45.6% were receiving second-generation antipsychotic agents alone, and 24.6% were receiving a combination of first- and second-generation antipsychotic agents. Thus, if relapse occurs after an antipsychotic drug withdrawal attempt, subsequent attempts at withdrawal are also very likely to lead to further relapses. PMID:18626266

  7. The influence of HBV model calibration on flood predictions for future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osuch, Marzena; Romanowicz, Renata

    2014-05-01

    The temporal variability of HBV rainfall-runoff model parameters was tested to address the influence of climate characteristics on the values of model optimal parameters. HBV is a conceptual model with a physically-based structure that takes into account soil moisture, snow-melt and dynamic runoff components. The model parameters were optimized by the DEGL method (Differential Evolution with Global and Local neighbours) for a set of catchments located in Poland. The methodology consisted of the calibration and cross-validation of the HBV models on a series of five-year periods within a moving window. The optimal parameter values show large temporal variability and dependence on climatic conditions described by the mean and standard deviation of precipitation, air temperature and PET. Derived regressions models between parameters and climatic indices were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The set of model optimal values was applied to simulate future flows in a changed climate. We used the precipitation and temperature series from 6 RCM/GCM models for 2071-2100 following the A1B climate change scenario. The climatic variables were obtained from the KLIMADA project. The resulting flow series for the future climate scenario were used to derive flow indices, including the flood quantiles. Results indicate a large influence of climatic variability on flow indices. This work was partly supported by the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" carried out by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences by order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866). The rainfall and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  8. Screening Tool Predicts Future Underimmunization Among a Pediatric Practice in Tennessee.

    PubMed

    Williams, Sarah E; Morgan, Ashley; Opel, Douglas; Edwards, Kathryn; Weinberg, Stuart; Rothman, Russell

    2016-06-01

    The Parent Attitudes about Childhood Vaccines (PACV) survey for identifying vaccine-hesitant parents was recently validated in Washington State but did not include all recommended childhood vaccines. The current study compares vaccination rates for all recommended childhood vaccines and PACV scores at one pediatric practice in Tennessee. Children were enrolled at the 2-week well visit, and vaccination rates were assessed at 19 months of age. Outcomes at 19 months of age included mean percentage of days underimmunized and up-to-date status (yes/no) compared with PACV scores. The impact of provider on immunization status was assessed. Complete vaccination data were available for 158 children of 183 enrolled (86%). Higher PACV scores were associated with more days underimmunized (P < .001) and being overdue for vaccine doses at 19 months of age (P < .001). No difference was seen between providers and up-to-date status. Our study supports the predictive validity of the PACV for underimmunization. PMID:26581360

  9. Nonlinear filtering techniques for noisy geophysical data: Using big data to predict the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. Within the Earth sciences it is readily evident in seismology, groundwater flows and drilling data. Models and workflows have been applied successfully to understand and even to predict chaotic systems in other scientific fields, including electrical engineering, neurology and oceanography. Unfortunately, the high levels of noise characteristic of our planet's chaotic processes often render these frameworks ineffective. This contribution presents techniques for the reduction of noise associated with measurements of nonlinear systems. Our ultimate aim is to develop data assimilation techniques for forward models that describe chaotic observations, such as episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events in fault zones. A series of nonlinear filters are presented and evaluated using classical chaotic systems. To investigate whether the filters can successfully mitigate the effect of noise typical of Earth science, they are applied to sunspot data. The filtered data can be used successfully to forecast sunspot evolution for up to eight years (see figure).

  10. No Future in the Past? The role of initial topography on landform evolution model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, G. R.; Coulthard, T. J.; Lowry, J.

    2014-12-01

    Our understanding of earth surface processes is based on long-term empirical understandings, short-term field measurements as well as numerical models. In particular, numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed which have the capability to capture a range of both surface (erosion and deposition), tectonics, as well as near surface or critical zone processes (i.e. pedogenesis). These models have a range of applications for understanding both surface and whole of landscape dynamics through to more applied situations such as degraded site rehabilitation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, can provide some level of reliability. However, these models are largely calibrated based on parameters determined from present surface conditions which are the product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here, we assess the effect of the initial landscape dimensions and associated error as well as parameterisation for a potential post-mining landform design. The results demonstrate that subtle surface changes in the initial DEM as well as parameterisation can have a large impact on landscape behaviour, erosion depth and sediment discharge. For example, the predicted sediment output from LEM's is shown to be highly variable even with very subtle changes in initial surface conditions. This has two important implications in that decadal time scale field data is needed to (a) better parameterise models and (b) evaluate their predictions. We question how a LEM using parameters derived from field plots can firstly be employed to examine long-term landscape evolution. Secondly, the potential range of outcomes is examined based on estimated temporal parameter change and thirdly, the need for more detailed and rigorous field data for calibration and validation of these models is discussed.

  11. Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

  12. The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2004-01-01

    The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

  13. Icon Duration and Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gummerman, Kent; And Others

    In this study, developmental changes in duration of the icon (visual sensory store) were investigated with three converging tachistoscopic tasks. (1) Stimulus interuption detection (SID), a variation of the two-flash threshold method, was performed by 29 first- and 32 fifth-graders, and 32 undergraduates. Icon duration was estimated by stimulus…

  14. The prevention of silicosis and prediction of its future prevalence in China.

    PubMed

    Lou, J Z; Zhou, C

    1989-12-01

    We studied the effects of preventive and therapeutic interventions on the 18-year cumulative incidence of silicosis of 26,603 dust-exposed workers in seven Chinese mines and industrial plants. Cumulative silicosis incidence decreased from 36.1 percent in workers employed before 1950 to 1.5 percent in workers employed after 1960. From the 1950s to 1970s, eight-year cumulative incidence of tuberculosis decreased from 54.7 percent to 16.7 percent and case fatality of silicosis patients dropped from 53.9 percent to 18.3 percent. From 1950s to 1980s, the average age at the detection of silicosis increased from 41.3 to 52.7 and the average survival time of silicosis patients prolonged from 2.0 to 12.2 years. Workers over age 40 who began exposure to dust before 1960 will be the main source of new silicosis patients in future. Most expected new cases of silicosis will occur within the next 15 years. The silicosis population will remain unchanged for the next 20 years and will decrease dramatically after 25 years. There will be few silicosis patients in 30 years and new cases of silicosis will be difficult to find in 45 years. These results show that the preventive and therapeutic actions against silicosis in China have been effective. PMID:2817188

  15. Large-scale cortical network properties predict future sound-to-word learning success.

    PubMed

    Sheppard, John Patrick; Wang, Ji-Ping; Wong, Patrick C M

    2012-05-01

    The human brain possesses a remarkable capacity to interpret and recall novel sounds as spoken language. These linguistic abilities arise from complex processing spanning a widely distributed cortical network and are characterized by marked individual variation. Recently, graph theoretical analysis has facilitated the exploration of how such aspects of large-scale brain functional organization may underlie cognitive performance. Brain functional networks are known to possess small-world topologies characterized by efficient global and local information transfer, but whether these properties relate to language learning abilities remains unknown. Here we applied graph theory to construct large-scale cortical functional networks from cerebral hemodynamic (fMRI) responses acquired during an auditory pitch discrimination task and found that such network properties were associated with participants' future success in learning words of an artificial spoken language. Successful learners possessed networks with reduced local efficiency but increased global efficiency relative to less successful learners and had a more cost-efficient network organization. Regionally, successful and less successful learners exhibited differences in these network properties spanning bilateral prefrontal, parietal, and right temporal cortex, overlapping a core network of auditory language areas. These results suggest that efficient cortical network organization is associated with sound-to-word learning abilities among healthy, younger adults. PMID:22360625

  16. The future ``Golden Age`` of predictive models for surface water quality and ecosystem management

    SciTech Connect

    Thomann, R.V.

    1998-02-01

    This paper is based on a Simon W. Freese lecture given at the ASCE North American Water and Environment Congress `96, Anaheim, California, on June 24, 1996. The role of water quality modeling in providing input to the decision-making process through understanding, dialogue, and consensus is discussed. The evolution of models is seen in three stages. During the first stage (1925 to about 1980), all sources (point, nonpoint, and sediment) were external to the model, but only point sources were directly linked to the originating input During the second stage (about 1980 to 1990), sediment models were coupled to the water column and hydrodynamic and watershed models were linked. A link was then established from watershed models to the input of the watershed. During the third stage (currently under way), airshed models are being incorporated with expansion to include other aspects of aquatic ecosystem. The Chesapeake Bay is used as an illustration. Issues of model credibility and confirmation are discussed; ultimately, the scientific and engineering community decides on the suitability of a modeling framework. The growth in model size over the history of modeling has been significant and parallels the increase in computing power. Future modeling challenges lie ahead in the areas of watershed models, airshed-watershed-estuarine-coastal ocean models, and whole ecosystem, living resources models. The success of water quality models will not necessarily be due to bigness and complexity but rather to increases in understanding, which can contribute to building consensus in water quality management decision-making.

  17. Increased involvement of the parahippocampal gyri in a sad mood predicts future depressive symptoms

    PubMed Central

    Huffziger, Silke; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich; Kuehner, Christine; Kirsch, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral studies suggest a relationship between autobiographical memory, rumination and depression. The objective of this study was to determine whether remitted depressed patients show alterations in connectivity of the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC, a node in the default mode network) with the parahippocampal gyri (PHG, a region associated with autobiographical memory) while intensively recalling negative memories and whether this is related to daily life symptoms and to the further course of depression. Sad mood was induced with keywords of personal negative life events in participants with remitted depression (n = 29) and matched healthy controls (n = 29) during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Additionally, daily life assessments of mood and rumination and a 6-month follow-up were conducted. Remitted depressed participants showed greater connectivity than healthy controls of the PCC with the PHG, which was even stronger in patients with more previous episodes. Furthermore, patients with increased PCC–PHG connectivity showed a sadder mood and more rumination in daily life and a worsening of rumination and depression scores during follow-up. A relationship of negative autobiographical memory processing, rumination, sad mood and depression on a neural level seems likely. The identified increased connectivity probably indicates a ‘scar’ of recurrent depression and may represent a prognostic factor for future depression. PMID:24493842

  18. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: introduction.

    PubMed

    Aumen, Nicholas G; Havens, Karl E; Best, G Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50% reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change. PMID:25743272

  19. Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  20. The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

    PubMed Central

    Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  1. Long Duration Exposure Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) materials were useful for testing technical concepts that needed to be validated for the Cosmic Dust Collector Facility (CDCF) - a large instrument that was under study for inclusion on the upcoming Space Station. As it turned out, CDCF, which was approved at one point as an external payload, was ultimately canceled due to the scaling back of the Space Station capabilities. However, the study of cosmic dust is still a field of great interest for NASA, being the crucial part of at least one experiment that is still being considered for a Discovery mission. The optimum analysis of hypervelocity impacts is thus a continuing NASA concern. Two experiments, AO187-1 and AO187-2 were explicitly designed to measure the flux and composition of dust particles impacting LDEF. The former consisted of flat targets of Au and Al while the second comprised a set of 237 "capture cells" using Ge target plates covered by thin (2.5 microns) metallized plastic foils. The spacecraft maintained a constant orientation with respect to its velocity vector thereby defining leading and trailing edges that faced respectively into and away from the direction of motion. Both AO187-1 and AO187-2 had detectors on both the leading and trailing edges of LDEF. It was expected that interplanetary dust particles would dominate impacts on the trailing edge while the leading edge would be exposed to both cosmic dust and particles of orbital manmade debris. In AO187-1, the compositions of the impactors was determined by SEM-EDS techniques; in AO187-2 a sensitive surface analysis technique - SIMS - was used to determine both elemental and (some) isotopic compositions. In the initial analysis of AO187-2, it was found that SIMS was more sensitive for the analysis of thin impact debris layers than SEM-EDS. The present grant was made to determine if SIMS analysis could also be applied to impacts recorded in the Au surfaces of AO187-1. Success would extend the analysis

  2. An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

  3. Looking Back to the Future: Predicting in Vivo Efficacy of Small Molecules versus Mycobacterium tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Selecting and translating in vitro leads for a disease into molecules with in vivo activity in an animal model of the disease is a challenge that takes considerable time and money. As an example, recent years have seen whole-cell phenotypic screens of millions of compounds yielding over 1500 inhibitors of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). These must be prioritized for testing in the mouse in vivo assay for Mtb infection, a validated model utilized to select compounds for further testing. We demonstrate learning from in vivo active and inactive compounds using machine learning classification models (Bayesian, support vector machines, and recursive partitioning) consisting of 773 compounds. The Bayesian model predicted 8 out of 11 additional in vivo actives not included in the model as an external test set. Curation of 70 years of Mtb data can therefore provide statistically robust computational models to focus resources on in vivo active small molecule antituberculars. This highlights a cost-effective predictor for in vivo testing elsewhere in other diseases. PMID:24665947

  4. Learning impairments identified early in life are predictive of future impairments associated with aging

    PubMed Central

    Hullinger, Rikki; Burger, Corinna

    2016-01-01

    The Morris water maze (MWM) behavioral paradigm is commonly used to measure spatial learning and memory in rodents. It is widely accepted that performance in the MWM declines with age. However, young rats ubiquitously perform very well on established versions of the water maze, suggesting that more challenging tasks may be required to reveal subtle differences in young animals. Therefore, we have used a one-day water maze and novel object recognition to test whether more sensitive paradigms of memory in young animals could identify subtle cognitive impairments early in life that might become accentuated later with senescence. We have found that these two tasks reliably separate young rats into inferior and superior learners, are highly correlated, and that performance on these tasks early in life is predictive of performance at 12 months of age. Furthermore, we have found that repeated training in this task selectively improves the performance of inferior learners, suggesting that behavioral training from an early age may provide a buffer against age-related cognitive decline. PMID:26283528

  5. Predictions of the Impacts of Future Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, A.; Adams, P. J.; Robinson, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    Recent discovery of shale gas reserves, combined with advances in drilling and fracturing technology, are leading to extensive development of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation which underlies parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and New York. To assess the impacts of this development on regional air quality, we have constructed a VOC, NOx and PM2.5 emissions inventory for the development and production of gas from the Marcellus formation. In 2020, we estimate that Marcellus activities will contribute about 12% to both regional NOx and VOC emissions. These numbers were obtained as a best estimate (mean) from a distribution obtained through several Monte Carlo runs. We speciated these emissions for use in a 3-D chemical transport model (PMCAMx) to simulate their effects on regional ozone. The projected Marcellus emissions for 2020 were added to a 2007 base inventory developed from the NEI. We have performed multiple simulations to investigate the effects of Marcellus development on regional air quality. The model predicts significant ozone changes in the Marcellus region with a uniform increase of few ppb across a wide region of the Northeast. Sensitivity studies are being performed to investigate the effects of emissions controls and sensitivity to VOC and NOx emissions.

  6. Future clinical uses of neurophysiological biomarkers to predict and monitor treatment response for schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Light, Gregory A.; Swerdlow, Neal R.

    2015-01-01

    Advances in psychiatric neuroscience have transformed our understanding of impaired and spared brain functions in psychotic illnesses. Despite substantial progress, few if any laboratory tests have graduated to clinics to inform diagnoses, guide treatments, and monitor treatment response. Providers must rely on careful behavioral observation and interview techniques to make inferences about patients’ inner experiences and then secondary deductions about impacted neural systems. Development of more effective treatments has also been hindered by a lack of translational quantitative biomarkers that can span the brain–behavior–treatment knowledge gap. Here, we describe an example of a simple, low-cost, and translatable electroencephalography (EEG) measure that offers promise for improving our understanding and treatment of psychotic illnesses: mismatch negativity (MMN). MMN is sensitive to and/or predicts response to some pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions and accounts for substantial portions of variance in clinical, cognitive, and psychosocial functioning in schizophrenia. This measure has recently been validated for use in large-scale multisite clinical studies of schizophrenia. Lastly, MMN greatly improves our ability to forecast which individuals at high clinical risk actually develop a psychotic illness. These attributes suggest that MMN can contribute to personalized biomarker-guided treatment strategies aimed at ameliorating or even preventing the onset of psychosis. PMID:25752648

  7. A stochastic simulation model to predict future air quality in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavros, E.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N.; Strand, T.; Lamb, B. K.

    2010-12-01

    It is widely accepted in both scientific and political communities such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that climate is changing. Previous studies have shown that expected changes in climate will increase the severity of wild fire. It is necessary to assess the impact of global climate change on wildfire and consequent effects on air quality in order to meet existing air quality regulations such as the Regional Haze Rule, which regulates visibility in Class 1 or “pristine areas”, and the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The challenge in such an assessment lies in not only integrating disciplines (climatology, fire ecology, air chemistry), but also in bridging knowledge across temporal (hourly to decadal) and spatial scales (local to global). In response to this challenge, we are integrating a stochastic model to simulate fire events, the Fire Scenario Builder (FSB), and the BlueSky Modeling Framework, which has a strong record of successfully linking wildfire emissions to air quality. FSB integrates fuel information and meteorological data to estimate regional fire season summary statistics such as total area burned and number of fire starts. The Blue Sky Modeling Framework then simulates total fuel consumption and smoke emissions both in local air sheds and downwind. Emissions are then fed into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model through Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). The goal of this research is threefold: 1) to compare emission results from the FSB-Blue Sky integration for current vs. future decades; 2) to assess model uncertainty, by comparing model output to observations, analyzing parameter sensitivity, and verifying the theoretical basis of FSB model structure; and, 3) prepare data files for analysis on air quality.

  8. Can Dermatoglyphics Be Used as a Marker for Predicting Future Malocclusions?

    PubMed Central

    Eslami, Neda; Jahanbin, Arezoo; Ezzati, Atefeh; Banihashemi, Elham; Kianifar, Hamidreza

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Dermal ridges and craniofacial structures form from the same embryonic tissues during the same embryonic period. Thus, this might indicate a possible association between dermatoglyphics and facial skeletal disorders, such as malocclusions. Early diagnosis of skeletal malocclusions sometimes can prevent future surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to compare the dermatoglyphic characteristics of different malocclusions. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 323 patients who were referred to Orthodontic Department of Mashhad Dental School were recruited. The participants were classified into three groups according to Angle’s classification, i.e., Skeletal Class 1 (n = 163), Skeletal Class 2 (n = 111), and Skeletal Class 3 (n = 49). For all participants, we recorded the total ridge counts of each finger (TRC), atd angles, a–b ridge counts, and types of fingerprint patterns. Right- and left-hand asymmetry scores were calculated. The chi-squared test was used to compare the dissimilarity of the types of patterns for each finger. Asymmetry of other parameters was analyzed statistically using the ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests. P-values greater than 0.05 were considered to be significant. Results A significant difference was determined between Class I and Class III patients in terms of left a–b ridge count (p=0.049). Loop was the most frequent pattern in the three groups, whereas the arch pattern occurred with the lowest frequency. No significant difference was found in the other parameters that were studied. Conclusion Although there were some slight differences in dermatoglyphic peculiarities of different skeletal malocclusions, most of the palm and fingerprint characteristics failed to indicate any significant differences. PMID:27054000

  9. Coherent neural oscillations predict future motor and language improvement after stroke.

    PubMed

    Nicolo, Pierre; Rizk, Sviatlana; Magnin, Cécile; Pietro, Marie Di; Schnider, Armin; Guggisberg, Adrian G

    2015-10-01

    Recent findings have demonstrated that stroke lesions affect neural communication in the entire brain. However, it is less clear whether network interactions are also relevant for plasticity and repair. This study investigated whether the coherence of neural oscillations at language or motor nodes is associated with future clinical improvement. Twenty-four stroke patients underwent high-density EEG recordings and standardized motor and language tests at 2-3 weeks (T0) and 3 months (T1) after stroke onset. In addition, EEG and motor assessments were obtained from a second population of 18 stroke patients. The graph theoretical measure of weighted node degree at language and motor areas was computed as the sum of absolute imaginary coherence with all other brain regions and compared to the amount of clinical improvement from T0 to T1. At T0, beta-band weighted node degree at the ipsilesional motor cortex was linearly correlated with better subsequent motor improvement, while beta-band weighted node degree at Broca's area was correlated with better language improvement. Clinical recovery was further associated with contralesional theta-band weighted node degree. These correlations were each specific to the corresponding brain area and independent of initial clinical severity, age, and lesion size. Findings were reproduced in the second stroke group. Conversely, later coherence increases occurring between T0 and T1 were associated with less clinical improvement. Improvement of language and motor functions after stroke is therefore associated with inter-regional synchronization of neural oscillations in the first weeks after stroke. A better understanding of network mechanisms of plasticity may lead to new prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets.See Ward (doi:10.1093/brain/awv265) for a scientific commentary on this article. PMID:26163304

  10. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then

  11. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Bigler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  12. Uncertainties of predictions of future atmosphere CO/sub 2/ concentrations

    SciTech Connect

    Oeschger, H.; Heimann, M.

    1983-02-20

    Linear carbon cycle models, tuned to reproduce the CO/sub 2/ increase observed at Mauna Loa, independently of their individual assumptions, predict almost identical CO/sub 2/ concentration trends for fossil energy scenarios assuming a slightly increasing production in the next few decades. The basic information for such prognoses therefore is the airborne fraction observed over the last 20 years. Uncertainties in this quantity are due to possible errors in the estimate of fossil fuel consumption and the corresponding CO/sub 2/ emission, possible natural fluctuations in the baseline CO/sub 2/ level, and uncertainties regarding the biospheric CO/sub 2/ input and uptake as a result of deforestation and reforestation and land management. Depending on different assumptions the effective airborne fraction, defined as the ratio of CO/sub 2/ increase due to fossil fuel CO/sub 2/ alone to the integrated CO/sub 2/ production, might be as low as 0.38 or as high as 0.72, compared to the apparent airborne fraction of 0.55. The effective airborne fraction derived from carbon cycle models, considering only the CO/sub 2/ uptake by the ocean, lies in the range 0.60--0.70. A value as low as 0.40 seems therefore highly improbable. A high biospheric anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ input therefore must have been accompanied by a high CO/sub 2/ fertilization effect. Model considerations, however, are not in contradiction with a high biospheric input with the maximum production before 1958, which also would imply low preindustrial CO/sub 2/ concentrations in the range 270--280 ppm as reported recently.

  13. A Model for Predicting the Future Risk of Incident Erosive Esophagitis in an Asymptomatic Population Undergoing Regular Check-ups.

    PubMed

    Kang, Soo Hoon; Lim, Yaeji; Lee, Hyuk; Kim, Joungyoun; Chi, Sangah; Min, Yang Won; Min, Byung-Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Son, Hee Jung; Ryu, Seungho; Rhee, Poong-Lyul; Kim, Jae J

    2016-01-01

    Erosive esophagitis is a major risk factor for Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Information regarding the putative risk factors for developing erosive esophagitis is considerably heterogeneous; thus, a risk model is required to clinically predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis. This study was to derive and validate a predictive model for the incidence of developing erosive esophagitis after negative index endoscopy in a population subjected to routine health check-ups. This retrospective cohort study of health check-ups included 11,535 patients who underwent repeated screening endoscopy after >3 years from a negative index endoscopy. We used logistic regression analysis to predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis, and a Simple Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Development score for risk assessment was developed and internally validated using the split-sample approach. The development and validation cohorts included 5765 patients (675 with erosive esophagitis [11.7%]) and 5770 patients (670 with erosive esophagitis [11.6%]), respectively. The final model included sex, smoking behavior, body mass index, hypertension, and the triglyceride level as variables. This model predicted 667 cases of erosive esophagitis, yielding an expected-to-observed ratio of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.07). A simplified 5-item risk scoring system based on coefficients was developed, with a risk of erosive esophagitis of 6.2% (95% CI, 5.2-7.1) for the low-risk group (score ≤2), 15.1% (95% CI, 13.5-16.6) for the intermediate-risk group (score ≤3, 4), and 18.2% (95% CI, 15.2-21.3) for the high-risk group (score ≥5). The discriminative performance of the risk-prediction score was consistent in the derivation cohort and validation cohort (c-statistics 0.68 and 0.64, respectively); the calibration was good (Brier score 0.099 and 0.1, respectively). In conclusion, a simple risk-scoring model using putative risk factors can predict the future

  14. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  15. PULSE DURATION LENGTHENER

    DOEpatents

    Aiken, W.R.

    1958-02-01

    This patent pertains to pulse modifying apparatus and, more particularly, describes a device to provide a rise time and time base expander for signal pulses having a very short duration. The basic element of the device is a vacuum tube comprising a charged particie beam, grid control means, an accelerating electrode, a drift tube, and a collector electrode. As the short duration input pulse modulates the particle beam through the grid control means, the voltage between the drift tube and accelerating electrode is caused to vary, whereby the output signal from the collector is a pulse having longer rise time, expanded duration and proportionate characteristics of the original pulse. The invention is particuiarly useful where subsequent pulse circultry does not have the frequency bandwidth to handle the short duration pulse without distorting it.

  16. Research on determinants of breastfeeding duration: suggestions for biocultural studies.

    PubMed

    Allen, L H; Pelto, G H

    1985-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to suggest directions for future intra-cultural research on the factors that affect breastfeeding duration, especially policy-oriented research. A 2nd purpose is to call for a reexamination of the theoretical construct, biocultural determinants, with respect to infant feeding. The study compares determinants in 4 multivariate studies. One was carried out in Connecticut, 1 in a working class community in Scotland, another in England and the 4th in Sweden. Almost no biological factors are strongly associated with breastfeeding duration in any of the population studied. Of the external factors, those relating to social support and advice were the most consistent predictors. Socioeconomic status, income, and work outside the home were not good predictors. Maternal attitudes and experience are of great importance in predicting feeding duration. The general picture that emerged from all the studies is that if a mother wants to breastfeed, she can. Mothers breastfeed longer if they desire to breastfeed; they intend to do it for a longer period of time; they feel comfortable feeding in public; they are informed about breastfeeding; and they are not anxious about the process. There is also fairly strong evidence linking a number of biocultural factors to feeding duration. Whether the linkage is biological or behavioral has significant policy implications: if it is biological, successful intervention would require a change in hospital practices to earlier 1st feeding; if the linkage is behavioral, the problem might be resolved through improved maternal education. PMID:3836324

  17. Effects of large volcanic eruptions on Eurasian climate and societies: unravelling past evidence to predict future impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Churakova Sidorova, Olga; Guillet, Sébastien; Corona, Christophe; Khodri, Myriam; Vaganov, Eugene; Siegwolf, Rolf; Bryukhanova, Marina; Naumova, Oksana; Kirdyanov, Aleksander; Myglan, Vladimir; Sviderskaya, Irina; Pyzhev, Anton; Grachev, Alexei; Saurer, Matthias; Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Substantial evidence exists for the sulphur deposition in ice cores of Greenland and Antarctica after major volcanic eruptions but their impacts have not been documented with sufficient detail so far. This is true for temperature, of which the cooling induced by eruptions has been vividly debated in recent years, but even more so for precipitation. In the Era.Net RUS Plus ELVECS, we are currently quantifying climate disturbance induced by major Common Era eruptions, the persistence of changes and their impact on short- to mid-term temperature and precipitation anomalies by using an unprecedented dataset of tree-ring records across Eurasia and a large body of recently unearthed historical archives. We will compile a comprehensive database of tree-ring proxies and historical archives; quantify temperature and precipitation impacts of large eruptions; simulate on a case-by-case basis volcanic microphysical processes and radiative forcing induced by the eruptions as well as evaluate results against tree-ring records; quantify impacts of large volcanic eruptions on atmospheric and oceanic circulations and feedbacks; and assess impacts of possible future eruptions. The new and diversified proxy data sources and more sophisticated modelling are expected to reduce discrepancies and uncertainties related to climatic responses to some of the largest eruptions. We expect to capture persistence of anomalies correctly by climate models, even more so if they are evaluated against highly resolved proxy data of past events. This will increase our confidence in the overall reliability of climate models and help to correctly capture, and therefore predict, the cooling and precipitation anomalies of possible future, large eruptions. These predictions of climatic anomalies will then be used to quantify their likely impacts on major economy and society, including food security, migration and air traffic. Acknowledgements: Era.Net RUS Plus ELVECS project № 122

  18. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

    PubMed

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species. PMID:27293680

  19. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

    PubMed Central

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species. PMID:27293680

  20. Evidence that gestation duration and lactation duration are coupled traits in primates.

    PubMed

    Dubman, Evgenia; Collard, Mark; Mooers, Arne Ø

    2012-12-23

    Gestation duration and lactation duration are usually treated as independently evolving traits in primates, but the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) suggests both durations should be determined by metabolic rate. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares linear regression to test these different perspectives. We found that the allometries of the durations are divergent from each other and different from the scaling exponent predicted by the MTE (0.25). Gestation duration increases much more slowly (0.06 < m < 0.12), and lactation duration much more quickly (0.36 < m < 0.52) with body mass than the MTE predicts. By contrast, we found that the combined duration of gestation and lactation is consistent with the MTE's predictions (0.22 < m < 0.35). These results suggest that gestation duration and lactation duration might best be viewed as distinct but coupled adaptations. When transferring energy to their offspring, primate mothers must meet metabolically dictated physiological requirements while optimizing the timing of the switch from gestation to lactation in relation to some as-yet-unidentified body-size-related factor. PMID:22915631

  1. Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

    PubMed

    Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

    2015-12-01

    The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology. PMID:27069602

  2. Two decades of historical phenology observations of African tropical tree species: exploring the past to predict the futur

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hufkens, K.; Kosmala, M.; Ewango, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Beeckman, H.

    2015-12-01

    African tropical forests cover ~630 million ha, store up to 66 Pg of carbon and represent a significant carbon sink (0.34Pg C yr-1 ). As such African tropical forests provide an important negative feedback to the global carbon cycle. Unlike temperate forests, tropical forests lack sharp temperature and photoperiod cues to constrain phenology and growth. Therefore, events such as seasonal leaf abscission and reproductive life cycles are often driven by changes in water availability. With future climate predictions expecting a warmer, and especially drier tropical Africa, it is likely we will see concomitant changes in tree growth and phenology.As tropical trees show a high degree of phenological plasticity depending on the severity of the dry season, intermittent water stress or the location of an individual in the canopy structure. As such, frequent and long term observations are key to characterize tropical tree phenology. Here I use two long term historical phenology records of weekly observations, some digitized within the context of a citizen science project (http://junglerhythms.org/), to explore differences in tree phenology between two sites (Luki and Yangambi, DR Congo) with contrasting climate regimes within the Congo basin. I describe variation in leaf, flower and fruit phenology across similar species at both locations in relation to complementary historical climatological observations. I further discuss the potential implications of changing phenology under future climate conditions as phenological changes could alter both ecosystem demography and growing season length providing important feedbacks to the climate system.

  3. Cardio-Pulmonary Parasitic Nematodes Affecting Cats in Europe: Unraveling the Past, Depicting the Present, and Predicting the Future

    PubMed Central

    Traversa, Donato; Di Cesare, Angela

    2014-01-01

    Various cardio-pulmonary parasitic nematodes infecting cats have recently been fascinating and stimulating the attention of the Academia, pharmaceutical companies, and veterinary practitioners. This is the case of the metastrongyloids: Aelurostrongylus abstrusus and Troglostrongylus brevior, the trichuroid: Capillaria aerophila (syn. Eucoleus aerophilus), and the filarioid: Dirofilaria immitis. Apparently, these parasites have been emerging in several European countries, thus, gaining an important role in feline parasitology and clinical practice. Under a practical standpoint, a sound knowledge of the biological, epidemiological, and clinical impact of cardio-respiratory parasitoses affecting cats, in addition to a potential risk of introduction, establishment, and spreading of “new” parasites in Europe is mandatory in order to understand the present and future impact for feline medicine and to address new strategies of control and treatment. The purpose of the present article is to review the current knowledge of heartworm and lungworm infections in cats, discussing and comparing past and present issues, and predicting possible future scenarios. PMID:26664917

  4. Holistic health: predicting our data future (from inter-operability among systems to co-operability among people).

    PubMed

    Rossi Mori, Angelo; Mazzeo, Marta; Mercurio, Gregorio; Verbicaro, Rita

    2013-04-01

    Data depend on processes; processes depend on organizational models; organizational models depend on regulations and policies. This position paper envisages the future data scenarios and the related research needs by addressing this whole logical chain. A 'smarter health and wellness future' requires the proactive engagement of citizens and of their caregivers, and the cooperation of health professionals across care facilities, with intense usage of mobile communication and connected devices. This ecosystem of people and organizations is currently extremely fragmented. Technology offers the possibility to mediate among the different actors in order to build a functional care team around the specific needs of each individual, i.e. a 'virtual facility'. However, this requires policies and regulations in every jurisdiction that motivate providers and their organizations to collaborate among themselves and with citizens according to explicit individual plans of care provision, to share their goals and negotiate their respective roles with respect to each citizen. Once a collaborative organizational context is established within integrated care models, policy makers could identify a critical mass of relevant shared processes and isolate a set of 'Attention Points' with predictable actors, concerns, activities, and thus highly precise information needs. For each Attention Point, a template for a Context-Specific Profile of the patient could be produced, e.g. as an HL7-CDA schema that fully specifies the mandatory and optional (clinical) data useful to support the care processes and to manage governance indicators. In relation to these predictable Attention Points data sources can be aligned to achieve reasonable coherence and consistency. Attention to data quality can be improved in a context of systematic re-use of the same data by different actors in different contexts. From a collection of profiles it could be possible to set up the core of a multi-purpose "Policy

  5. Estimating magnitude and duration of incident delays

    SciTech Connect

    Garib, A.; Radwan, A.E.; Al-Deek, H.

    1997-11-01

    Traffic congestion is a major operational problem on urban freeways. In the case of recurring congestion, travelers can plan their trips according to the expected occurrence and severity of recurring congestion. However, nonrecurring congestion cannot be managed without real-time prediction. Evaluating the efficiency of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies in reducing incident effects requires developing models that can accurately predict incident duration along with the magnitude of nonrecurring congestion. This paper provides two statistical models for estimating incident delay and a model for predicting incident duration. The incident delay models showed that up to 85% of variation in incident delay can be explained by incident duration, number of lanes affected, number of vehicles involved, and traffic demand before the incident. The incident duration prediction model showed that 81% of variation in incident duration can be predicted by number of lanes affected, number of vehicles involved, truck involvement, time of day, police response time, and weather condition. These findings have implications for on-line applications within the context of advanced traveler information systems (ATIS).

  6. PREDICTING FUTURE WATER DEMAND

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decentralization within metropolitan areas has been a major aspect of population movement in the United States over the past two decades. The trend has great significance for all urban service activities. In particular, it affects water supply planning in urban areas. Both number...

  7. Prognostic significance of QRS duration and morphology.

    PubMed

    Brenyo, Andrew; Zaręba, Wojciech

    2011-01-01

    QRS duration and morphology, evaluated via a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), represent an opportunity to derive useful prognostic information regarding the risk of subsequent cardiac events or therapeutic outcomes. Prolonged QRS duration, and the presence of intraventricular conduction abnormalities, usually indicate the presence of changes in the myocardium due to underlying heart disease. Prolonged QRS duration is often associated with depressed ejection fraction or enlarged left ventricular volumes, but several studies have demonstrated that this simple ECG measure provides independent prognostic value, after adjusting for relevant clinical covariates. Post-infarction patients with prolonged QRS duration have a significantly increased risk of mortality, although data associating QRS prolongation specifically with sudden death is less supportive. In non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, there is no evidence that QRS duration has prognostic significance in predicting mortality or sudden death. Prolonged QRS duration, and especially presence of left bundle branch block, seems to predict a benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy patients. Therefore, QRS duration and morphology should not only be considered a predictor of death or sudden death in patients after myocardial infarction, and in those suspected of coronary artery disease, but also as a predictor of benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure, whether of an ischemic or non-ischemic origin. PMID:21305480

  8. Word Durations in Non-Native English

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Rachel E.; Baese-Berk, Melissa; Bonnasse-Gahot, Laurent; Kim, Midam; Van Engen, Kristin J.; Bradlow, Ann R.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compare the effects of English lexical features on word duration for native and non-native English speakers and for non-native speakers with different L1s and a range of L2 experience. We also examine whether non-native word durations lead to judgments of a stronger foreign accent. We measured word durations in English paragraphs read by 12 American English (AE), 20 Korean, and 20 Chinese speakers. We also had AE listeners rate the `accentedness' of these non-native speakers. AE speech had shorter durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, greater reduction of function words, and less between-speaker variance than non-native speech. However, both AE and non-native speakers showed sensitivity to lexical predictability by reducing second mentions and high frequency words. Non-native speakers with more native-like word durations, greater within-speaker word duration variance, and greater function word reduction were perceived as less accented. Overall, these findings identify word duration as an important and complex feature of foreign-accented English. PMID:21516172

  9. Evaluation of geostationary satellite observations and the development of a 1-2 h prediction model for future storm intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mecikalski, John R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Manzato, Agostino

    2016-06-01

    A study was conducted to gain insights into the use of geostationary satellite-based indicators for characterizing and identifying growing cumulus clouds that evolve into severe weather producing convective storms. Eleven convective initiation (CI), 41 cloud top temperature-effective radius (T-re), and 9 additional fields were formed for 340 growing cumulus clouds that were manually tracked for 2 h and checked for association with severe weather to 2-3 h into the future. The geostationary satellite data were at 5 min resolution from Meteosat-8 on six convectively active days in 2010, 2012, and 2013. The study's goals were to determine which satellite fields are useful to forecasting severe storms and to form a simple model for predicting future storm intensity. The CI fields were applied on 3 × 3 pixel regions, and the T-re fields were analyzed on 9 × 9 and 51 × 51 pixel domains (needed when forming T-re vertical profiles). Of the 340 growing cumulus clouds examined, 34 were later associated with severe weather (using European Severe Weather Database reports), with the remaining being nonsevere storms. Using a multivariate analysis, transforming predictors into their empirical posterior probability, and maximizing the Peirce skill score, the best predictors were T1451 (51 × 51 pixel T, where re exceeds 14 µm), TG9 (9 × 9 pixel glaciation T surrounding a growing cloud), and ReBRTG51 (51 × 51 pixel re at the breakpoint T in the T-re profile). Rapid cloud growth prior to severe storm formation leads to delayed particle growth, colder temperatures of the first 14 µm particles, and lower TG values.

  10. Impact of spotty calcification on long-term prediction of future revascularization: a prospective three-vessel intravascular ultrasound study.

    PubMed

    Tamaru, Hiroto; Fujii, Kenichi; Fukunaga, Masashi; Imanaka, Takahiro; Miki, Kojiro; Horimatsu, Tetsuo; Nishimura, Machiko; Saita, Ten; Sumiyoshi, Akinori; Shibuya, Masahiko; Naito, Yoshiro; Masuyama, Tohru

    2016-06-01

    To date, there are no prospective studies on the relationship between plaque characteristics identified by 40 MHz IVUS and future adverse events. This prospective study evaluated the relationship between plaque morphology in nonculprit nonsignificant lesions, determined by 40 MHz IVUS, and long-term clinical outcomes. Consecutively, 45 patients who underwent 3-vessel intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) examinations were prospectively enrolled. Qualitative and quantitative IVUS analyses including scoring of echogenicity for assessment of plaque characterization were performed for each nonsignificant nonculprit lesion. The number, the length, the location (superficial or deep), and maximum arc were measured for each calcium deposit within plaques. Spotty calcification was defined as calcium deposits <90° and <6 mm in length. Primary end point was defined as nonsignificant nonculprit lesion-related revascularization (NNLR) during 6 years of follow-up. A total of 163 nonsignificant nonculprit lesions with mild to moderate stenosis were identified on baseline 3-vessel IVUS. Of those 163 lesions, six lesions required NNLR during the follow-up period. There were no differences in quantitative IVUS parameters including remodeling index, plaque burden, and echogenicity between lesions requiring and not requiring NNLR. However, deep spotty calcification was more frequently identified in lesions requiring NNLR than in those not requiring NNLR (33 vs. 8 %, P = 0.02). Spotty calcium deposits identified by 40 MHz IVUS predicted the need for NNLR during a 6-year follow-up period. This finding suggests that deep spotty calcium may be a surrogate marker for plaque progression and the subsequent need for revascularization in the future. PMID:25964072

  11. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  12. The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.

    2007-01-01

    Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

  13. Repetition enhancement and memory effects for duration.

    PubMed

    Wiener, Martin; Thompson, James C

    2015-06-01

    A remarkable aspect of conscious perception is that moments carryover from one to the next, also known as temporal continuity. This ability is thus crucial for detecting regularities, such as in speech and music, and may rely on an accurate perception of time. Investigations of human time perception have detailed two electroencephalographic (EEG) components associated with timing, the contingent negative variation (CNV) and late positive component of timing (LPCt); however, the precise roles of these components in timing remain elusive. Recently, we demonstrated that the perception of duration is influenced by durations presented on prior trials, which we explained by the creation of an implicit memory standard that adapts to local changes in sequence presentation. Here, we turn to the neural basis of this effect. Human participants performed a temporal bisection task in which they were required to classify the duration of auditory stimuli into short and long duration categories; crucially, the presentation order was first-order counterbalanced, allowing us to measure the effect of each presented duration on the next. EEG recordings revealed that the CNV and LPCt signals both covaried with the duration presented on the current trial, with CNV predicting reaction time and LPCt predicting choice. Additionally, both signals covaried with the duration presented in the prior trial but in different ways, with the CNV amplitude reflecting the change in the memory standard and the LPCt reflecting decision uncertainty. Furthermore, we observed a repetition enhancement effect of duration only for the CNV, suggesting that this signal additionally indexes the similarity of successive durations. These findings demonstrate dissociable roles for the CNV and LPCt, and demonstrate that both signals are continuously updated on a trial-by-trial basis that reflects shifts in temporal decisions. PMID:25818689

  14. Resting-State Regional Cerebral Blood Flow During Adolescence: Associations with Initiation of Substance Use and Prediction of Future Use Disorders*

    PubMed Central

    Ramage, Amy E.; Lin, Ai-Ling; Olvera, Rene L.; Fox, Peter T.; Williamson, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Adolescence is a period of developmental flux when brain systems are vulnerable to influences of early substance use, which in turn relays increased risk for substance use disorders. Our study intent was to assess adolescent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) as it relates to current and future alcohol use. The aim was to identify brain-based predictors for initiation of alcohol use and onset of future substance use disorders. Methods Quantitative rCBF was assessed in 100 adolescents (age 12-15). Prospective behavioral assessments were conducted annually over a three-year follow-up period to characterize onset of alcohol initiation, future drinking patterns and use disorders. Comparisons amongst use groups (i.e., Current-, Future-, and Non-alcohol Using adolescents) identified rCBF associated with initiation of alcohol use. Regression by future drinking patterns identified rCBF predictive of heavier drinking. Survival analysis determined whether or not baseline rCBF predicted later development of use disorders. Results Baseline rCBF was decreased to the parietal cortex and increased to mesolimbic regions in adolescents currently using alcohol as well as those who would use alcohol in the future. Higher baseline rCBF to the left fusiform gyrus and lower rCBF to the right inferior parietal cortex and left cerebellum was associated with future drinking patterns as well as predicted the onset of alcohol and substance use disorders in this cohort. Conclusions Variations in resting rCBF to regions within reward and default mode or control networks appear to represent trait markers of alcohol use initiation and is predictive of future development of use disorders. PMID:25682478

  15. River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

    2007-10-01

    River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

  16. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  17. Late Holocene land- and sea-level changes in the British Isles: implications for future sea-level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrels, W. Roland

    2010-07-01

    Four decades of palaeosea-level research in the British Isles have produced a large dataset of age-altitude curves of postglacial sea-level changes. Patterns of late Holocene relative sea-level change reveal the persistent influence of the British/Irish Ice Sheet and the larger Scandinavian Ice Sheet on contemporary rates of vertical land movements. The Shennan and Horton (2002) map of late Holocene relative land movements has been used in future sea-level rise predictions by the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme in their 2002 assessment (UKCIP02), but has been mistaken for a map of absolute land movements. In this paper, land-motion data for Britain are extracted from the Shennan and Horton (2002) relative sea-level data, and a new map of crustal land movements is presented which also includes Ireland. This procedure takes into account the regional 20th century sea-level rise (˜0.14 m) and the process of ocean syphoning ( i.e. a global fall in sea level of ˜0.3 mm/yr due to GIA induced ocean-floor lowering and re-distribution of ocean mass). The calculated land-motion rates also depend on the global late Holocene ice-equivalent sea-level change, given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as 0.0-0.2 mm/yr. Accounting for these processes reduces the misfit between geological observations of vertical land motion and those independently derived from gravity-aligned Global Positioning System (AG GPS) measurements and shows that UKCIP02 has underestimated land subsidence in southern Britain and over-estimated land uplift in Scotland, both by 0.1-0.2 mm/yr. A best fit between GPS and geological estimates of land movements in Britain is achieved for a global long-term eustatic sea-level fall of ca 0.2 mm/yr, suggesting some global ice expansion in the late Holocene, rather than melt. If this is correct, uplift rates in Scotland would be lower and subsidence rates in southern Britain would be faster (by 0.4-0.5 mm/yr) than estimated by UKCIP02. More

  18. Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montoya, Isaac D.

    2008-01-01

    Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

  19. Slow Wave Sleep and Long Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Arias, D.; Leveton, L.

    2011-01-01

    To review the literature on slow wave sleep (SWS) in long duration space flight, and place this within the context of the broader literature on SWS particularly with respect to analogous environments such as the Antarctic. Explore how SWS could be measured within the International Space Station (ISS) context with the aim to utilize the ISS as an analog for future extra-orbital long duration missions. Discuss the potential use of emergent minimally intrusive wireless technologies like ZEO for integrated prelaunch, flight, and return to Earth analysis and optimization of SWS (and general quality of sleep).

  20. Ensemble Predictions of Future Snowfall Scenarios in the Karakorum and Hindu-Kush Mountains Using Downscaled GCM Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the seasonality and mass of snow, and impacting the water resources of hundreds of millions of people who depend on streamflow originating in High Asia. Global climate model (GCM) outputs are the primary forcing data used to investigate future projections of changes in snow and glacier processes; however, these processes occur at a much finer spatial scale than the resolution of current GCMs. To facilitate studying the cryosphere in High Asia, we developed a software package to downscale monthly GCM data to 30-arcseconds for any global land area. Using this downscaling package, we produce an ensemble of downscaled GCM data from 2020-2100, corresponding to representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We then use these data to model changes to snowfall in the Karakorum and Hindu Kush (KHK) region, which is located in High Asia. The ensemble mean of these data predict that total annual snowfall in 2095 will decrease by 22% under RCP 4.5 and 46% under RCP 8.5, relative to 1950-2000 climatological values. For both scenarios, the changes in snowfall are dependent on elevation, with the maximum decreases in snowfall occurring at approximately 2,300 m. While total snowfall decreases, an interesting feature of snowfall change for the RCP 8.5 scenario is that the ensemble mean projection shows an increase in snowfall for elevations between 3,000- 5,000 m relative to historic values. These fine-scale spatial, temporal, and elevation-dependent patterns of changes in projected snowfall significantly affect the energy balance of the snowpack, in turn affecting timing of melt and discharge. Therefore, our work can be coupled with a glacio-hydrological model to assess effects of these snowfall patterns on other processes or compared to existing model results to assess treatment of snow processes in the existing model. Our method is designed to downscale climate data for any global land area, allowing for the production of these fine

  1. Validation and future predictions based on a new Non-Point Source Assessment Toolbox, applied to the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kourakos, G.; Harter, T.

    2011-12-01

    GIS platform and can be used for efficient scenario evaluations without the need to repeat groundwater model simulations. This method is applied to the southern third part of the Central Valley Aquifer, California, which is an intensively farmed semi-arid area, where the local communities rely heavily on groundwater. To obtain a detailed velocity field, the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) developed by the USGS was used as the coarse solution, split and refined into a large number of sub-domains. The CVHM resolution is 1 sq mi, with the stresses applied to the center of each cell. In our refined model the well stresses are spatially distributed to a large number of hypothetical wells, where the pumping rates, well depths and screen lengths are obtained from empirical probability distributions, derived from real data. The NPSAT generates a time-dependent water quality probability distribution, which express the time-dependent probability for a discharge surface (e.g., well) to exceed a threshold level of contamination across at a specific time. The model result is compared against real historic nitrate data, and used for future predictions with different scenario evaluations.

  2. Meeting Report: FutureTox II: Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology “Pathways to Prediction: In Vitro and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology”

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Society of Toxicology (SOT) held avery successful FutureTox II Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology (CCT) Conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on January 16th and 17th, 2014. There were over 291 attendees representing industry, government and academia; the sessions were ...

  3. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  4. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  5. Long duration ash probe

    DOEpatents

    Hurley, John P.; McCollor, Don P.; Selle, Stanley J.

    1994-01-01

    A long duration ash probe includes a pressure shell connected to a port in a combustor with a sample coupon mounted on a retractable carriage so as to retract the sample coupon within the pressure shell during sootblowing operation of the combustor. A valve mounted at the forward end of the pressure shell is selectively closeable to seal the sample coupon within the shell, and a heating element in the shell is operable to maintain the desired temperature of the sample coupon while retracted within the shell. The carriage is operably mounted on a pair of rails within the shell for longitudinal movement within the shell. A hollow carrier tube connects the hollow cylindrical sample coupon to the carriage, and extends through the carriage and out the rearward end thereof. Air lines are connected to the rearward end of the carrier tube and are operable to permit coolant to pass through the air lines and thence through the carrier tube to the sample coupon so as to cool the sample coupon.

  6. Long duration ash probe

    DOEpatents

    Hurley, J.P.; McCollor, D.P.; Selle, S.J.

    1994-07-26

    A long duration ash probe includes a pressure shell connected to a port in a combustor with a sample coupon mounted on a retractable carriage so as to retract the sample coupon within the pressure shell during soot blowing operation of the combustor. A valve mounted at the forward end of the pressure shell is selectively closeable to seal the sample coupon within the shell, and a heating element in the shell is operable to maintain the desired temperature of the sample coupon while retracted within the shell. The carriage is operably mounted on a pair of rails within the shell for longitudinal movement within the shell. A hollow carrier tube connects the hollow cylindrical sample coupon to the carriage, and extends through the carriage and out the rearward end thereof. Air lines are connected to the rearward end of the carrier tube and are operable to permit coolant to pass through the air lines and thence through the carrier tube to the sample coupon so as to cool the sample coupon. 8 figs.

  7. Climate-driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga.

    PubMed

    Assis, J; Serrão, E A; Claro, B; Perrin, C; Pearson, G A

    2014-06-01

    The climate-driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long-term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool. PMID:24766057

  8. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  9. A quantitative assessment of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of future-year air quality in North Carolina, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arunachalam, Saravanan; Holland, Andrew; Do, Bebhinn; Abraczinskas, Michael

    Increased focus has been directed at fine-scale modeling for improving the ability of air quality modeling systems to capture local phenomena. While numerous studies have investigated model performance at finer resolution (4-5 km), there is relatively limited information available for choosing the optimum grid resolution for predicting future air quality in attainment demonstration studies. We demonstrate an evaluation of the MM5-SMOKE-MAQSIP modeling system for four 8-h ozone episodes in the summers of 1995, 1996 and 1997 in North Carolina using a one-way nested 36/12/4-km application. After establishing acceptable base-case model performance for ozone predictions during each episode, we developed future-year emissions control scenarios for 2007 and 2012, and finally computed relative reduction factors (RRFs) using model outputs from each of the three grid resolutions. Our analyses, based upon qualitative as well as quantitative approaches like the Student's t-test, indicate that RRFs computed at specific monitoring locations—and hence predicted future-year air quality—are not very different between the 4- and 12-km results, while the differences are slightly larger between the 4- and 36-km results. The results imply that grid resolution contributes to a variability of about 1-3 ppb in the projected future-year design values; this variability needs to be incorporated into policy-relevant decision-making. Since this assessment was performed for four different episodes under diverse meteorological, physical and chemical regimes, one can generalize the results from this study. They are also relevant for regional modeling applications that are currently ongoing for studying PM 2.5 nonattainment issues, where the need for annual base-year and future-year simulations for demonstrating attainment may place a large demand on computing resources. Based upon the results from this study, future studies may consider using results from 12-km modeling to address future

  10. Can We Do Better than Using "Mean GCSE Grade" to Predict Future Outcomes? An Evaluation of Generalised Boosting Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benton, Tom

    2015-01-01

    A key predictor of young people's future outcomes is their level of academic achievement whilst at school. In England this is most commonly measured by achievement in GCSEs. However, not all pupils will have taken the same set of GCSE examinations as, for example, they may make different subject choices. For this reason, GCSE performance is often…

  11. Do College Students Make Better Predictions of Their Future Income than Young Adults in the Labor Force?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jerrim, John

    2015-01-01

    Several studies have considered whether American college students' hold "realistic" wage expectations. The consensus is that they do not--overestimation of future earnings is in the region of 40-50%. But is it just college students who overestimate the success they will have in the labor market, or is this something common to all…

  12. Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

    2009-04-01

    Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

  13. Once is too much: Conditioned aversion develops immediately and predicts future cocaine self-administration behavior in rats

    PubMed Central

    Colechio, Elizabeth M.; Imperio, Caesar G.; Grigson, Patricia S.

    2014-01-01

    Rats emit aversive taste reactivity (TR) behavior (i.e., gapes) following intraoral delivery of a cocaine-paired taste cue and greater conditioned aversive TR at the end of training predicts greater drug-seeking and taking. Here, we examined the development of this conditioned aversive TR behavior on a trial by trial basis in an effort to determine when the change in behavior occurs and whether early changes in this behavior can be used to predict later drug-taking. The results show that conditioned aversive TR to a cocaine-paired cue occurs very early in training (i.e., following as few as 1 – 2 taste-drug pairings) and, importantly, that it can be used to predict later drug-seeking and drug-taking in rats. PMID:24773440

  14. Ethnic identity trajectories among Mexican-origin girls during early and middle adolescence: Predicting future psychosocial adjustment.

    PubMed

    Gonzales-Backen, Melinda A; Bámaca-Colbert, Mayra Y; Allen, Kimberly

    2016-05-01

    We examined trajectories of ethnic identity exploration, resolution, and affirmation and their associations with depressive symptoms and self-esteem 3.5 years later among early and middle adolescent Mexican-origin girls (N = 338). Findings indicated that exploration, resolution, and affirmation increased over time for both cohorts. Among early adolescents, growth in exploration was associated with more depressive symptoms during middle adolescence, whereas higher initial levels and greater rates of change of affirmation predicted fewer subsequent depressive symptoms. Among middle adolescents, higher baseline levels of exploration and affirmation predicted fewer depressive symptoms in late adolescence. Higher initial levels and greater change in affirmation predicted higher self-esteem among both cohorts. Findings highlight the developmental and multifaceted quality of ethnic identity and that associations between ethnic identity and adjustment may vary by adolescent developmental stage. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26986228

  15. Sleep Duration and Obesity in Adults: What Are the Connections?

    PubMed

    Theorell-Haglöw, Jenny; Lindberg, Eva

    2016-09-01

    Collectively, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on self-reported sleep duration and obesity do not show a clear pattern of association with some showing a negative linear relationship, some showing a U-shaped relationship, and some showing no relationship. Associations between sleep duration and obesity seem stronger in younger adults. Cross-sectional studies using objectively measured sleep duration (actigraphy or polysomnography (PSG)) also show this mixed pattern whereas all longitudinal studies to date using actigraphy or PSG have failed to show a relationship with obesity/weight gain. It is still too early and a too easy solution to suggest that changing the sleep duration will cure the obesity epidemic. Given novel results on emotional stress and poor sleep as mediating factors in the relationship between sleep duration and obesity, detection and management of these should become the target of future clinical efforts as well as future research. PMID:27372108

  16. Long Duration Sorbent Testbed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knox, James; Long, David; Miller, Lee; Thomas, John; Cmarik, Greg; Howard, David

    2016-01-01

    The LDST is a flight experiment demonstration designed to expose current and future candidate carbon dioxide removal system sorbents to an actual crewed space cabin environment to assess and compare sorption working capacity degradation resulting from long term operation. An analysis of sorbent materials returned to earth after approximately one year of operation in the International Space Station's (ISS) Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) indicated as much as a 70% loss of working capacity of the silica gel desiccant material at the extreme system inlet location, with a gradient of capacity loss down the bed. The primary science objective is to assess the degradation of potential sorbents for exploration class missions and ISS upgrades when operated in a true crewed space cabin environment. A secondary objective is to compare degradation of flight test to a ground test unit with contaminant dosing to determine applicability of ground testing.

  17. Current and future perspectives on the development, evaluation and application of in silico approaches for predicting toxicity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Safety-related problems continue to be one of the major reasons of attrition in drug development. Non-testing approaches to predict toxicity could form part of the solution. This review provides a perspective of current status of non-testing approaches available for the predictio...

  18. Prediction of Future High Caries Increments for Children in a School Dental Service and in Private Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imfeld, Thomas N.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A method for predicting high dental caries increments for children, based on previous research, is presented. Three clinical findings were identified as predictors: number of sound primary molars, number of discolored pits/fissures on first permanent molars, and number of buccal and lingual smooth surfaces of first permanent molars with white…

  19. Sleep Duration and Waist Circumference in Adults: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Sperry, Susan D.; Scully, Iiona D.; Gramzow, Richard H.; Jorgensen, Randall S.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Previous research has demonstrated a relation between insufficient sleep and overall obesity. Waist circumference (WC), a measure of central adiposity, has been demonstrated to improve prediction of health risk. However, recent research on the relation of insufficient sleep duration to WC in adults has yielded inconsistent findings. Objectives: To assess the magnitude and the consistency of the relation of insufficient sleep and WC Methods: A systematic search of Internet and research databases using Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, and PsycINFO through July 2013 was conducted. All articles in English with adult human subjects that included measurements of WC and sleep duration were reviewed. A random effects meta-analysis and regression analyses were performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were checked. Results are expressed as Pearson correlations (r; 95% confidence interval). Results: Of 1,376 articles, 30 met inclusion criteria and 21 studies (22 samples for a total of 56,259 participants) provided sufficient data for meta-analysis. Results showed a significant negative relation between sleep duration and WC (r = −0.10, P < 0.0001) with significant heterogeneity related to sleep comparison method. Potential moderators of the relation between sleep duration and WC were not significant. Funnel plots showed no indication of publication bias. In addition, a fail-safe N calculation indicated that 418 studies with null effects would be necessary to bring the overall mean effect size to a trivial value of r = −0.005. Conclusions: Internationally, cross-sectional studies demonstrate a significant negative relation between sleep duration and waist circumference, indicating shorter sleep durations covary with central adiposity. Future research should include prospective studies. Citation: Sperry SD, Scully ID, Gramzow RH, Jorgensen RS. Sleep duration and waist circumference in adults: a meta-analysis. SLEEP 2015;38(8):1269–1276. PMID:25581918

  20. Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

  1. Effects of Duration of Electronic Cigarette Use

    PubMed Central

    Tackett, Alayna P.; Grant, DeMond M.; Tahirkheli, Noor N.; Driskill, Leslie M.; Wagener, Theodore L.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: This study examined the effect of duration electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use on e-cigarette dependence, frequency of use, and strength of nicotine solution as well as number of cigarettes smoked per day. Methods: Individuals were recruited at e-cigarette retail locations in a large Midwestern metropolitan city of the United States in July 2013. A total of 159 participants completed a brief 29-item self-report measure that assessed behaviors and perceptions of use. The mean age of the participants was 35.8 years; 84.4% were White, and 53.7% were male. Results: Increased duration of e-cigarette use was associated with fewer cigarettes smoked per day and differing patterns of dependence to e-cigarettes contingent upon smoking history. Additionally, increased duration of e-cigarette use was associated with increased frequency of use; however, this finding became nonsignificant when current tobacco cigarette use was accounted for, suggesting that individuals may increase e-cigarette use frequency as they decrease cigarette use. Overall, e-cigarette users tended to decrease the strength of nicotine in their e-cigarette products regardless of duration of use. Conclusions: Although preliminary in nature, this study identifies several factors that are important to consider when examining the effects of prolonged e-cigarette use. The implications of the current results should be informative to future studies that examine these variables in longitudinal designs. PMID:24827788

  2. Predicting future wind power generation and power demand in France using statistical downscaling methods developed for hydropower applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najac, Julien

    2014-05-01

    For many applications in the energy sector, it is crucial to dispose of downscaling methods that enable to conserve space-time dependences at very fine spatial and temporal scales between variables affecting electricity production and consumption. For climate change impact studies, this is an extremely difficult task, particularly as reliable climate information is usually found at regional and monthly scales at best, although many industry oriented applications need further refined information (hydropower production model, wind energy production model, power demand model, power balance model…). Here we thus propose to investigate the question of how to predict and quantify the influence of climate change on climate-related energies and the energy demand. To do so, statistical downscaling methods originally developed for studying climate change impacts on hydrological cycles in France (and which have been used to compute hydropower production in France), have been applied for predicting wind power generation in France and an air temperature indicator commonly used for predicting power demand in France. We show that those methods provide satisfactory results over the recent past and apply this methodology to several climate model runs from the ENSEMBLES project.

  3. Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

  4. Strategic aspects of higher education reform to cultivate specialists in diagnostic and biopharma industry as applicable to Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine as the Medicine of the Future.

    PubMed

    Studneva, М; Mandrik, M; Song, Sh; Tretyak, E; Krasnyuk, I; Yamada, Y; Tukavin, A; Ansari, A; Kozlov, I; Reading, C; Ma, Y; Krapfenbauer, K; Svistunov, A; Suchkov, S

    2015-01-01

    Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine as the Medicine of the Future represents an innovative model for advanced healthcare and robust platform for relevant industrial branches for diagnostics and pharmaceutics. However, rapid market penetration of new medicines and technologies demands the implementation of reforms not only in the spheres of biopharmaceutical industries and healthcare, but also in education. Therefore, the problem of the fundamental, modern preparation of specialists in bioengineering and affiliated fields is becoming particularly urgent, and it requires significant revision of training programs of higher education practice into current medical universities. Modernization and integration of widely accepted medical and teaching standards require consolidation of both the natural sciences and medical sciences that may become the conceptual basis for a university medical education. The main goal of this training is not simply to achieve advanced training and expansion of technological skills, but to provide development of novel multifaceted approaches to build academic schools for future generations. PMID:26379805

  5. The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

    PubMed Central

    Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

  6. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    PubMed

    Terando, Adam J; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

  7. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  8. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  9. The prediction of PAHs bioavailability in soils using chemical methods: state of the art and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Cachada, A; Pereira, R; da Silva, E Ferreira; Duarte, A C

    2014-02-15

    The evaluation of the available fraction of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) is extremely important for assessing their risk to the environment and human health. This available fraction, which can be solubilized and/or easily extracted, is believed to be the most accessible for bioaccumulation, biosorption and/or transformation by organisms. Based on this, two main types of chemical methods have been developed, closely related to the concepts of bioaccessibility and freely available concentrations: non-exhaustive extractions and biomimetic methods. Since bioavailability is species and compound specific, this work focused only in one of the most widespread group of HOCs in soils: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This study aims at producing a state of the art knowledge base on bioavailability and chemical availability of PAHs in soils, clarifying which chemical methods can provide a better prediction of an organism exposure, and which are the most promising ones. Therefore, a review of the processes involved on PAHs availability to microorganisms, earthworms and plants was performed and the outputs given by the different chemical methods were evaluated. The suitability of chemical methods to predict bioavailability of the 16 US EPA PAHs in dissimilar naturally contaminated soils was not yet demonstrated, being especially difficult for high molecular weight compounds. Even though the potential to predict microbial mineralization using non-exhaustive extractions is promising, it will be very difficult to achieve for earthworms and plants, due to the complexity of accumulation mechanisms which are not taken into account by chemical methods. Yet, the existing models could be improved by determining compound, species and site specific parameters. Moreover, chemical availability can be very useful to understand the bioavailability processes and the behavior of PAHs in soils. The inclusion of chemical methods on risk assessment has been suggested and it is

  10. Summer Rains and Dry Seasons in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Predictability of Half a Century of Past and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Mellander, Per-Erik; Gebrehiwot, Solomon G.; Gärdenäs, Annemieke I.; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Bishop, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    During the last 100 years the Ethiopian upper Blue Nile Basin (BNB) has undergone major changes in land use, and is now potentially facing changes in climate. Rainfall over BNB supplies over two-thirds of the water to the Nile and supports a large local population living mainly on subsistence agriculture. Regional food security is sensitive to both the amount and timing of rain and is already an important political challenge that will be further complicated if scenarios of climate change are realized. In this study a simple spatial model of the timing and duration of summer rains (Kiremt) and dry season (Bega), and annual rain over the upper BNB was established from observed data between 1952 and 2004. The model was used to explore potential impacts of climate change on these rains, using a down-scaled ECHAM5/MP1-OM scenario between 2050 and 2100. Over the observed period the amount, onset and duration of Kiremt rains and rain-free Bega days have exhibited a consistent spatial pattern. The spatially averaged annual rainfall was 1490 mm of which 93% was Kiremt rain. The average Kiremt rain and number of rainy days was higher in the southwest (322 days) and decreased towards the north (136 days). Under the 2050–2100 scenario, the annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase by 6% and maintain the same spatial pattern as in the past. A larger change in annual rainfall is expected in the southwest (ca. +130 mm) with a gradually smaller change towards the north (ca. +70 mm). Results highlight the need to account for the characteristic spatiotemporal zonation when planning water management and climate adaptation within the upper BNB. The presented simple spatial resolved models of the presence of Kiremt and annual total rainfall could be used as a baseline for such long-term planning. PMID:23869219

  11. Summer rains and dry seasons in the upper Blue Nile Basin: the predictability of half a century of past and future spatiotemporal patterns.

    PubMed

    Mellander, Per-Erik; Gebrehiwot, Solomon G; Gärdenäs, Annemieke I; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Bishop, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    During the last 100 years the Ethiopian upper Blue Nile Basin (BNB) has undergone major changes in land use, and is now potentially facing changes in climate. Rainfall over BNB supplies over two-thirds of the water to the Nile and supports a large local population living mainly on subsistence agriculture. Regional food security is sensitive to both the amount and timing of rain and is already an important political challenge that will be further complicated if scenarios of climate change are realized. In this study a simple spatial model of the timing and duration of summer rains (Kiremt) and dry season (Bega), and annual rain over the upper BNB was established from observed data between 1952 and 2004. The model was used to explore potential impacts of climate change on these rains, using a down-scaled ECHAM5/MP1-OM scenario between 2050 and 2100. Over the observed period the amount, onset and duration of Kiremt rains and rain-free Bega days have exhibited a consistent spatial pattern. The spatially averaged annual rainfall was 1490 mm of which 93% was Kiremt rain. The average Kiremt rain and number of rainy days was higher in the southwest (322 days) and decreased towards the north (136 days). Under the 2050-2100 scenario, the annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase by 6% and maintain the same spatial pattern as in the past. A larger change in annual rainfall is expected in the southwest (ca. +130 mm) with a gradually smaller change towards the north (ca. +70 mm). Results highlight the need to account for the characteristic spatiotemporal zonation when planning water management and climate adaptation within the upper BNB. The presented simple spatial resolved models of the presence of Kiremt and annual total rainfall could be used as a baseline for such long-term planning. PMID:23869219

  12. Single-Event Effects Ground Testing and On-Orbit Rate Prediction Methods: The Past, Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reed, Robert A.; Kinnison, Jim; Pickel, Jim; Buchner, Stephen; Marshall, Paul W.; Kniffin, Scott; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past 27 years, or so, increased concern over single event effects in spacecraft systems has resulted in research, development and engineering activities centered around a better understanding of the space radiation environment, single event effects predictive methods, ground test protocols, and test facility developments. This research has led to fairly well developed methods for assessing the impact of the space radiation environment on systems that contain SEE sensitive devices and the development of mitigation strategies either at the system or device level.

  13. The Past is a Guide to the Future? Comparing Middle Pliocene Vegetation With Predicted Biome Distributions for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, U.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Middle Pliocene geological stage, ca. 3.6 to 2.6 million years ago, represents an interval of time in which Earth experienced greater global warmth. In order to evaluate the degree to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare a newly developed Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction with simulated global biome distributions for the mid and late 21st century. The Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is based on an internally consistent dataset of 202 palaeobotanical sites and predictions from a state-of-the-art coupled climate-vegetation model (HadAM3-TRIFFID-BIOME4), the output of which is used to provide biome estimates for data sparse regions. For the Middle Pliocene, both the vegetation reconstruction and model predictions indicate a generally warmer and moister climate than today. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grasslands shifted northward resulting in a significantly reduced area of tundra vegetation. Warm-temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in Middle and Eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Middle Pliocene biome distributions are compared (globally and on a regional scale) with two new predictions of equilibrium vegetation conditions for the early 21st Century (around 2020, ~ 400ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere) and end of the 21st Century (~ 560ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere), to examine similarities and discrepancies in biome distributions. Our comparison between reconstruction and prediction will contribute to a better understanding of the past and future impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and climate.

  14. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior predict dietary intention and future dieting in an ethnically diverse sample of overweight and obese veterans attending medical clinics?

    PubMed

    Lash, Denise N; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K

    2016-04-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans' numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one's weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior's (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB's ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans' facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. PMID:26792774

  15. Predicting the Future: Opportunities and Challenges for the Chemical Industry to Apply 21st-Century Toxicity Testing

    PubMed Central

    Settivari, Raja S; Ball, Nicholas; Murphy, Lynea; Rasoulpour, Reza; Boverhof, Darrell R; Carney, Edward W

    2015-01-01

    Interest in applying 21st-century toxicity testing tools for safety assessment of industrial chemicals is growing. Whereas conventional toxicology uses mainly animal-based, descriptive methods, a paradigm shift is emerging in which computational approaches, systems biology, high-throughput in vitro toxicity assays, and high-throughput exposure assessments are beginning to be applied to mechanism-based risk assessments in a time- and resource-efficient fashion. Here we describe recent advances in predictive safety assessment, with a focus on their strategic application to meet the changing demands of the chemical industry and its stakeholders. The opportunities to apply these new approaches is extensive and include screening of new chemicals, informing the design of safer and more sustainable chemical alternatives, filling information gaps on data-poor chemicals already in commerce, strengthening read-across methodology for categories of chemicals sharing similar modes of action, and optimizing the design of reduced-risk product formulations. Finally, we discuss how these predictive approaches dovetail with in vivo integrated testing strategies within repeated-dose regulatory toxicity studies, which are in line with 3Rs principles to refine, reduce, and replace animal testing. Strategic application of these tools is the foundation for informed and efficient safety assessment testing strategies that can be applied at all stages of the product-development process. PMID:25836969

  16. Invited Commentary: Use of Arsenical Skin Lesions to Predict Risk of Internal Cancer—Implications for Prevention and Future Research

    PubMed Central

    Ahsan, Habibul; Steinmaus, Craig

    2013-01-01

    Arsenic exposure affects millions of people worldwide, causing substantial mortality and morbidity from cancers and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. An article in the current issue (Am J Epidemiol. 2013;177(3):202–212) reports that classic dermatological manifestations, typically associated with chronic arsenic exposure, are predictive of internal cancers among Taiwanese decades after the cessation of exposure. Specifically, the risk of lung and urothelial cancers was elevated, which was evident regardless of arsenic dose, smoking, and age. There was also an unexpected elevated risk of prostate cancer. Despite some methodological limitations, these findings underscore the need for assessing whether dermatological manifestations are also predictive of cardiovascular, respiratory, and other arsenic-related, long-term health consequences. Given the emerging evidence of arsenic exposure from dietary sources beyond contaminated drinking water and occupational and environmental settings, and also because the vast majority of diseases and deaths among exposed populations do not show classic dermatological manifestations, larger and more comprehensive investigations of the health effects of arsenic exposure, especially at lower doses, are needed. In parallel, because the risk of known arsenic-related health outcomes remains elevated decades after exposure cessation, research toward identification of early clinical and biological markers of long-term risk as well as avenues for prevention, in addition to policy actions for exposure reductions, is warranted. PMID:23299696

  17. Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

    SciTech Connect

    Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.; Marsh, M.C. David; Rummel, Markus

    2015-04-09

    Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line in the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with z>20pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.

  18. Predicting the future: opportunities and challenges for the chemical industry to apply 21st-century toxicity testing.

    PubMed

    Settivari, Raja S; Ball, Nicholas; Murphy, Lynea; Rasoulpour, Reza; Boverhof, Darrell R; Carney, Edward W

    2015-03-01

    Interest in applying 21st-century toxicity testing tools for safety assessment of industrial chemicals is growing. Whereas conventional toxicology uses mainly animal-based, descriptive methods, a paradigm shift is emerging in which computational approaches, systems biology, high-throughput in vitro toxicity assays, and high-throughput exposure assessments are beginning to be applied to mechanism-based risk assessments in a time- and resource-efficient fashion. Here we describe recent advances in predictive safety assessment, with a focus on their strategic application to meet the changing demands of the chemical industry and its stakeholders. The opportunities to apply these new approaches is extensive and include screening of new chemicals, informing the design of safer and more sustainable chemical alternatives, filling information gaps on data-poor chemicals already in commerce, strengthening read-across methodology for categories of chemicals sharing similar modes of action, and optimizing the design of reduced-risk product formulations. Finally, we discuss how these predictive approaches dovetail with in vivo integrated testing strategies within repeated-dose regulatory toxicity studies, which are in line with 3Rs principles to refine, reduce, and replace animal testing. Strategic application of these tools is the foundation for informed and efficient safety assessment testing strategies that can be applied at all stages of the product-development process. PMID:25836969

  19. Integrating climate science, glaciology and hydrology to predict future run-off at the Greenland ice sheet margin: A case study from Ilulissat, West Greenland.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mottram, R. H.; Ahlstrøm, A. P.; Nielsen, C.; Reeh, N.; Stendel, M.; Andersen, S. Bech

    2009-04-01

    Predicting future hydrological regimes with regard to climate change is an increasingly important task for hydrologists. In polar regions the task is more difficult due to the lack of datasets and long term monitoring as well as logistical difficulties in remote and inaccessible basins. Here, we demonstrate a case study predicting the future run-off in a difficult to model hydrological basin by integrating a range of data, methods and numerical models. A study, evaluating the future conditions in the Pakitsup Akuliarusersua basin near Ilulissat, West Greenland, was initiated to determine the viability of a small hydropower scheme based around two lakes adjacent to the ice-sheet margin. This basin is mainly supplied by meltwater from the ice-sheet margin and the position of the ice sheet relative to the lakes makes them sensitive to changes in drainage pathways. We combined glaciological and hydrological models with data from climate models in order to resolve these issues. An ice dynamic model (Reeh, 1988), incorporating new digital terrain models for the ice sheet surface and basal topographies (Mottram and other, 2009), was driven by climate data from a combined global/regional climate model (HIRHAM4) for the period 1950-2080 (Stendel and others, 2007). The climate data was downscaled to catchment scale and corrected using observational data from the local area. The corrected HIRHAM4 output was used as input to a temperature-index mass-balance model (Reeh, 1991) and used to force the ice-dynamic model in order to predict the future ice sheet geometry and to drive meltwater production at the ice sheet surface. These ice sheet geometries were used to predict the size of the ice-sheet part of the hydrological basin for a range of different levels of ice sheet basal water pressure every 5 years from present day to 2080. Thus, the present analysis takes into account global and regional climate change, ice dynamical response and changes in the internal drainage system

  20. Predicting future weight status from measurements made in early childhood: a novel longitudinal approach applied to Millennium Cohort Study data

    PubMed Central

    Mead, E; Batterham, A M; Atkinson, G; Ells, L J

    2016-01-01

    Background/Objective: There are reports that childhood obesity tracks into later life. Nevertheless, some tracking statistics such as correlations do not quantify individual agreement, whereas others such as diagnostic test statistics can be difficult to translate into practice. We aimed to employ a novel analytic approach, based on ordinal logistic regression, to predict weight status of 11-year-old children from measurements at age 5 years. Subjects/Methods: The UK 1990 growth references were used to generate clinical weight status categories of 12 076 children enrolled in the Millennium Cohort Study. Using ordinal regression, we derived the predicted probability (percent chances) of 11-year-old children becoming underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese and severely obese from their weight status category at age 5 years. Results: The chances of becoming obese (including severely obese) at age 11 years were 5.7% (95% confidence interval: 5.2 to 6.2%) for a normal-weight 5-year-old child and 32.3% (29.8 to 34.8%) for an overweight 5-year-old child. An obese 5-year-old child had a 68.1% (63.8 to 72.5%) chance of remaining obese at 11 years. Severely obese 5-year-old children had a 50.3% (43.1 to 57.4%) chance of remaining severely obese. There were no substantial differences between sexes. Nondeprived obese 5-year-old boys had a lower probability of remaining obese than deprived obese boys: −21.8% (−40.4 to −3.2%). This association was not observed in obese 5-year-old girls, in whom the nondeprived group had a probability of remaining obese 7% higher (−15.2 to 29.2%). The sex difference in this interaction of deprivation and baseline weight status was therefore −28.8% (−59.3 to 1.6%). Conclusions: We have demonstrated that ordinal logistic regression can be an informative approach to predict the chances of a child changing to, or from, an unhealthy weight status. This approach is easy to interpret and could be applied to any longitudinal data set

  1. Understanding the Effects of Sampling on Healthcare Risk Modeling for the Prediction of Future High-Cost Patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moturu, Sai T.; Liu, Huan; Johnson, William G.

    Rapidly rising healthcare costs represent one of the major issues plaguing the healthcare system. Data from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, Arizona's Medicaid program provide a unique opportunity to exploit state-of-the-art machine learning and data mining algorithms to analyze data and provide actionable findings that can aid cost containment. Our work addresses specific challenges in this real-life healthcare application with respect to data imbalance in the process of building predictive risk models for forecasting high-cost patients. We survey the literature and propose novel data mining approaches customized for this compelling application with specific focus on non-random sampling. Our empirical study indicates that the proposed approach is highly effective and can benefit further research on cost containment in the healthcare industry.

  2. Current and Future Perspectives on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of in Silico Approaches for Predicting Toxicity.

    PubMed

    Patlewicz, Grace; Fitzpatrick, Jeremy M

    2016-04-18

    Exploiting non-testing approaches to predict toxicity early in the drug discovery development cycle is a helpful component in minimizing expensive drug failures due to toxicity being identified in late development or even during clinical trials. Changes in regulations in the industrial chemicals and cosmetics sectors in recent years have prompted a significant number of advances in the development, application, and assessment of non-testing approaches, such as (Q)SARs. Many efforts have also been undertaken to establish guiding principles for performing read-across within category and analogue approaches. This review offers a perspective, as taken from these sectors, of the current status of non-testing approaches, their evolution in light of the advances in high-throughput approaches and constructs such as adverse outcome pathways, and their potential relevance for drug discovery. It also proposes a workflow for how non-testing approaches could be practically integrated within testing and assessment strategies. PMID:26686752

  3. Relating spatial perspective taking to the perception of other's affordances: providing a foundation for predicting the future behavior of others

    PubMed Central

    Creem-Regehr, Sarah H.; Gagnon, Kyle T.; Geuss, Michael N.; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding what another agent can see relates functionally to the understanding of what they can do. We propose that spatial perspective taking and perceiving other's affordances, while two separate spatial processes, together share the common social function of predicting the behavior of others. Perceiving the action capabilities of others allows for a common understanding of how agents may act together. The ability to take another's perspective focuses an understanding of action goals so that more precise understanding of intentions may result. This review presents an analysis of these complementary abilities, both in terms of the frames of reference and the proposed sensorimotor mechanisms involved. Together, we argue for the importance of reconsidering the role of basic spatial processes to explain more complex behaviors. PMID:24068992

  4. MODEL ATMOSPHERES FOR MASSIVE GAS GIANTS WITH THICK CLOUDS: APPLICATION TO THE HR 8799 PLANETS AND PREDICTIONS FOR FUTURE DETECTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Madhusudhan, Nikku; Burrows, Adam; Currie, Thayne E-mail: burrows@astro.princeton.edu

    2011-08-10

    We have generated an extensive new suite of massive giant planet atmosphere models and used it to obtain fits to photometric data for the planets HR 8799b, c, and d. We consider a wide range of cloudy and cloud-free models. The cloudy models incorporate different geometrical and optical thicknesses, modal particle sizes, and metallicities. For each planet and set of cloud parameters, we explore grids in gravity and effective temperature, with which we determine constraints on the planet's mass and age. Our new models yield statistically significant fits to the data, and conclusively confirm that the HR 8799 planets have much thicker clouds than those required to explain data for typical L and T dwarfs. Both models with (1) physically thick forsterite clouds and a 60 {mu}m modal particle size and (2) clouds made of 1 {mu}m sized pure iron droplets and 1% supersaturation fit the data. Current data are insufficient to accurately constrain the microscopic cloud properties, such as composition and particle size. The range of best-estimated masses for HR 8799b, HR 8799c, and HR 8799d conservatively span 2-12 M{sub J} , 6-13 M{sub J} , and 3-11 M{sub J} , respectively, and imply coeval ages between {approx}10 and {approx}150 Myr, consistent with previously reported stellar ages. The best-fit temperatures and gravities are slightly lower than values obtained by Currie et al. using even thicker cloud models. Finally, we use these models to predict the near-to-mid-IR colors of soon-to-be imaged planets. Our models predict that planet-mass objects follow a locus in some near-to-mid-IR color-magnitude diagrams that is clearly separable from the standard L/T dwarf locus for field brown dwarfs.

  5. Model Atmospheres for Massive Gas Giants with Thick Clouds: Application to the HR 8799 Planets and Predictions for Future Detections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhusudhan, Nikku; Burrows, Adam; Currie, Thayne

    2011-08-01

    We have generated an extensive new suite of massive giant planet atmosphere models and used it to obtain fits to photometric data for the planets HR 8799b, c, and d. We consider a wide range of cloudy and cloud-free models. The cloudy models incorporate different geometrical and optical thicknesses, modal particle sizes, and metallicities. For each planet and set of cloud parameters, we explore grids in gravity and effective temperature, with which we determine constraints on the planet's mass and age. Our new models yield statistically significant fits to the data, and conclusively confirm that the HR 8799 planets have much thicker clouds than those required to explain data for typical L and T dwarfs. Both models with (1) physically thick forsterite clouds and a 60 μm modal particle size and (2) clouds made of 1 μm sized pure iron droplets and 1% supersaturation fit the data. Current data are insufficient to accurately constrain the microscopic cloud properties, such as composition and particle size. The range of best-estimated masses for HR 8799b, HR 8799c, and HR 8799d conservatively span 2-12 MJ , 6-13 MJ , and 3-11 MJ , respectively, and imply coeval ages between ~10 and ~150 Myr, consistent with previously reported stellar ages. The best-fit temperatures and gravities are slightly lower than values obtained by Currie et al. using even thicker cloud models. Finally, we use these models to predict the near-to-mid-IR colors of soon-to-be imaged planets. Our models predict that planet-mass objects follow a locus in some near-to-mid-IR color-magnitude diagrams that is clearly separable from the standard L/T dwarf locus for field brown dwarfs.

  6. Duration of an elastic collision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Izarra, Charles

    2012-07-01

    With a pedagogical goal, this paper deals with a study of the duration of an elastic collision of an inflatable spherical ball on a planar surface suitable for undergraduate studies. First, the force generated by the deformed spherical ball is obtained under assumptions that are discussed. The study of the motion of the spherical ball colliding with the planar surface allows us to determine the duration of the elastic collision. In order to check the theoretical model, an experiment is proposed to measure the duration of the collision. A more refined model built with masses and springs gives good agreement between theoretical and experimental values.

  7. Childhood Sleep Duration and Lifelong Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Duggan, Katherine A.; Reynolds, Chandra A.; Kern, Margaret L.; Friedman, Howard S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Sleep duration is known to significantly affect health in adults and children, but little is understood about long-term associations. This prospective cohort study is the first to examine whether childhood sleep duration is associated with lifelong mortality risk. Methods Data from childhood were refined and mortality data collected for 1,145 participants from the Terman Life Cycle Study. Participants were born between 1904 and 1915, lived to at least 1940, and had complete age, bedtime, and waketime data at initial data collection (1917–1926). Homogeneity of the cohort sample (intelligent, mostly white) limits generality but provides natural control of common confounds. Through 2009, 1,039 participants had confirmed deaths. Sleep duration was calculated as the difference between each child’s bed and wake times. Age-adjusted sleep (deviation from that predicted by age) was computed. Cox proportional hazards survival models evaluated childhood sleep duration as a predictor of mortality separately by sex, controlling for baseline age. Results For males, a quadratic relation emerged: male children who under-slept or over-slept compared to peers were at increased risk of lifelong all-cause mortality (HR = 1.15, CI = 1.05 – 1.27). Effect sizes were smaller and non-significant in females (HR = 1.02, CI = 0.91 – 1.14). Conclusions Male children with shorter or longer sleep durations than expected for their age were at increased risk of death at any given age in adulthood. The findings suggest that sleep may be a core biobehavioral trait, with implications for new models of sleep and health throughout the entire lifespan. PMID:24588628

  8. The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Salzmann, U; Haywood, A M; Lunt, D J

    2009-01-13

    During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560 ppmv atmospheric CO2. In accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, resulting in a northward shift of the taiga-tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannah and woodland in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data-model comparison reveals differences in the distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider multipliers associated with 'long-term' climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome distributions, at higher atmospheric CO2 levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century. PMID:18854302

  9. The principles, practices and some future applications of near infrared spectroscopy for predicting the nutritive value of foods for animals and humans.

    PubMed

    Givens, D I; De Boever, J L; Deaville, E R

    1997-01-01

    The current application and future potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in the evaluation of foods for domesticated animals and humans is enormous. Where used, NIR spectroscopy has revolutionized the analysis and nutritional evaluation of animal feeds and human foods by providing a rapid means of examination. The availability of accurate and rapid methods of evaluation is becoming increasingly important to meet the nutritional requirements of animals for meat, milk, wool and egg production. This is essential for efficient and economic animal production, to maintain animal health and to minimize environmental impact. Accurate evaluation methods are also needed in relation to national and international legislation that regulates the circulation, trade and inspection of foods and feeds, aids effective functioning of the market and guards the safety of animals and humans. The aim of this review is to outline the theory and principles of NIR spectroscopy and to focus primarily on its application in the field of animal nutrition. The vital role NIR spectroscopy is playing in the prediction of biologically meaningful feed characteristics, including data derived in vivo, is demonstrated particularly through its application to forage evaluation, but also in the examination of raw materials and compound feeds. While the applications of NIR spectroscopy to different foods and drinks are extensive, this review gives an overview only of selected reported applications including its use for predicting nutritive value (mainly water, protein, fat, sucrose and starch content), monitoring food processing and for food authentication. The review provides clear evidence that the future application of NIR spectroscopy will undoubtedly increase, playing a vital role in the authentication of the quality and origin of foods and feeds and enabling the complex methods of feed evaluation required in the future to be put into widespread use. PMID:19094259

  10. Task duration in contextual interference.

    PubMed

    Smith, Peter J K

    2002-12-01

    Duration of practice trial on a pursuit rotor task in contextual interference was investigated. Participants practiced at each of 4 angular velocities, with 24 participants completing 28 trials lasting 20 sec., and 24 participants completing 112 trials of 5 sec. Half of the participants in each trial-duration condition practiced in a blocked format and half practiced in a random format. After random practice posttest performance was better than blocked practice when practice-trial duration was 20 sec., but worse when practice-trial duration was 5 sec. This result is not consistent with theoretical explanations of the contextual interference effect and is discussed with reference to the task characteristics and demands of the pursuit rotor. PMID:12578255

  11. Analyses and design tool for the prediction of structural failure of current and future composite wind turbine blades

    SciTech Connect

    Fronk, T.H.; Gebert, G.A.; Jones, D.L.; Blotteaux, R.J.

    1995-09-01

    A computer code was developed which models the aeroelastic-structural response of arbitrary wind turbine blades undergoing gust loading. The code couples a three-dimensional, time-domain, unsteady aerodynamic analysis with a geometric, nonlinear, finite element model of a laminated composite structural blade to predict the response of wind turbine blades. The full aerodynamic loading is accounted for by rapidly tracking the unsteady, 3-D, vortex filament wake shed behind each blade of the turbine. The program also makes estimates of the nonlinear aerodynamic loading in the both the pre- and post-stall regimes. In order to make it an effective design tool, the program can accept arbitrary blade geometries including user specified airfoil sections, taper ratio, blade twist, number of blades, laminate stacking sequence, and mass and material properties. In coupling the aerodynamics with the structural model, estimates of large blade deflections and stresses can be made. The program has been compared with experimental results of the Storm Master Turbine and showed good agreement of both the aerodynamics and the structural performance. The code can be used as a design tool handling virtually any blade geometry and gust loading.

  12. Model of medical supply and astronaut health for long-duration human space flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assad, Albert; de Weck, Olivier L.

    2015-01-01

    Planning a safe and productive human space exploration mission involves a dual approach addressing both the health of the vehicle and the crew. The goal of this study was to develop a quantitative model of astronaut health during long-duration space flight and a medical supply demand model in support of such missions. The model provides two outputs, Alphah and Mass of Medical Consumables (MMC), for each set of input parameters. Alphah is an estimate of total crew health and is displayed as a percentage. MMC is a measure of medical consumables expended during the mission and is displayed in units of kilograms. We have demonstrated that Alphah is a function of three scaling parameters, the type of mission, duration of mission, and gender mix of the crew. The type of mission and gender of crew are linked to radiation fatality data published by NASA. Mission duration is incorporated into the model with predicted incidence of illness and injury data published on US Navy submarine crews. MMC increases non-linearly with the number of crew, the duration of the mission and the distance of the mission away from Earth. This article describes the relationships between these parameters and discusses implications for future crewed space missions.

  13. Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.

    PubMed

    Brochier, Timothée; Echevin, Vincent; Tam, Jorge; Chaigneau, Alexis; Goubanova, Katerina; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2013-06-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences. PMID:23554213

  14. Prediction of future methane emission from irrigated rice paddies in central Thailand under different water management practices.

    PubMed

    Minamikawa, Kazunori; Fumoto, Tamon; Iizumi, Toshichika; Cha-Un, Nittaya; Pimple, Uday; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2016-10-01

    There is concern about positive feedbacks between climate change and methane (CH4) emission from rice paddies. However, appropriate water management may mitigate the problem. We tested this hypothesis at six field sites in central Thailand, where the irrigated area is rapidly increasing. We used DNDC-Rice, a process-based biogeochemistry model adjusted based on rice growth data at each site to simulate CH4 emission from a rice-rice double cropping system from 2001 to 2060. Future climate change scenarios consisting of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and seven global climate models were generated by statistical downscaling. We then simulated CH4 emission in three water management practices: continuous flooding (CF), single aeration (SA), and multiple aeration (MA). The adjusted model reproduced the observed rice yield and CH4 emission well at each site. The simulated CH4 emissions in CF from 2051 to 2060 were 5.3 to 7.8%, 9.6 to 16.0%, 7.3 to 18.0%, and 13.6 to 19.0% higher than those from 2001 to 2010 in RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, at the six sites. Regionally, SA and MA mitigated CH4 emission by 21.9 to 22.9% and 53.5 to 55.2%, respectively, relative to CF among the four RCPs. These mitigation potentials by SA and MA were comparable to those from 2001 to 2010. Our results indicate that climate change in the next several decades will not attenuate the quantitative effect of water management practices on mitigating CH4 emission from irrigated rice paddies in central Thailand. PMID:27239710

  15. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    PubMed

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. PMID:26164820

  16. Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

    PubMed

    Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

    2015-11-11

    During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. PMID:25445999

  17. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  18. Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunn, L. S.; Blake, S.; Jones, M. C.; Rymer, H.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to forecast future volcanic eruption durations would greatly benefit emergency response planning prior to and during a volcanic crises. This paper introduces a probabilistic model to forecast the duration of future and on-going eruptions. The model fits theoretical distributions to observed duration data and relies on past eruptions being a good indicator of future activity. A dataset of historical Mt. Etna flank eruptions is presented and used to demonstrate the model. The data have been compiled through critical examination of existing literature along with careful consideration of uncertainties on reported eruption start and end dates between the years 1300 AD and 2010. Data following 1600 is considered to be reliable and free of reporting biases. The distribution of eruption duration between the years 1600 and 1669 is found to be statistically different from that following it and the forecasting model is run on two datasets of Mt. Etna flank eruption durations: 1600-2010 and 1670-2010. Each dataset is modelled using a log-logistic distribution with parameter values found by maximum likelihood estimation. Survivor function statistics are applied to the model distributions to forecast (a) the probability of an eruption exceeding a given duration, (b) the probability of an eruption that has already lasted a particular number of days exceeding a given total duration and (c) the duration with a given probability of being exceeded. Results show that excluding the 1600-1670 data has little effect on the forecasting model result, especially where short durations are involved. By assigning the terms `likely' and `unlikely' to probabilities of 66 % or more and 33 % or less, respectively, the forecasting model based on the 1600-2010 dataset indicates that a future flank eruption on Mt. Etna would be likely to exceed 20 days (± 7 days) but unlikely to exceed 86 days (± 29 days). This approach can easily be adapted for use on other highly active, well

  19. Prediction and Detection of Land Surface Deformation Associated with CO2 Injection at the FutureGen 2.0 Carbon Capture and Storage Project Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strickland, C. E.; Spane, F.; Bonneville, A.; Murray, C. J.; Nguyen, B. N.; Vermeul, V. R.; Gilmore, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will inject 22 MMT of supercritical CO2 into the Mt Simon sandstone reservoir utilizing four deep-injection wells and a comprehensive monitoring program, which includes surface deformation monitoring. Analytical and numerical modeling analysis were both performed to predict potential vertical elevation changes based on simulated pressure changes and geomechanical properties for the targeted injection zone. Pressure changes due to continuous CO2 injection of 1.1 MMT of CO2/year over 20 years were obtained using the STOMP-CO2 numerical simulator. Injection zone elastic properties were calculated primarily from wireline geomechanical survey results that were obtained from the initial FutureGen 2.0 stratigraphic borehole. The continuous wireline geomechanical log elastic property results were utilized to estimate model layer thickness and rock compressibility for the various injection zone/model layers and were compared with hydrologic characterization results. Compressibility estimates obtained both from hydrologically based, in-situ tests, together with limited laboratory core samples provided similarly low compressibility results (1.0510-7 to 4.9210-7 psi-1) to those derived from the geomechanical wireline surveys. The predicted surface deformation was then estimated using two parallel modelling approaches. First, an analytical Biot-based, poro-elastic model was used to calculate an equivalent vertical displacement at land surface from the expected pore pressure increase and predicted injection zone model layer rock compressibility. The second method utilized a fully 3-D geomechanical modelling analysis to calculate the expected deformation at the surface using a STOMP-CO2/ABAQUS® sequentially coupled simulator. The predicted surface uplift after 20-years of continuous injection for both methods indicated a maximum deformation of approximately 20-25 mm, with most of the deformation occurring during the first 2 years. Surface deformation

  20. Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies.

    PubMed

    Meo, Sultan Ayoub

    2016-06-01

    To highlight the prevalence and future projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The systematic analytic study was conducted in the Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Dec 2014 to April 2015. Systematic bibliographic search of scientific databases including ISI-web of science, PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted with key words of "diabetes mellitus" "prevalence", "incidence". Total 46 peer reviewed papers were selected and examined. All the experimental and epidemiologic studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia were included. There was no restriction on publication prestige and language of the publication. Finally, we included 21 publications and remaining 25 papers were excluded. The future predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was calculated on the results of the published studies by regressing the 33 years (1982-2015) of prevalence rate of diabetes against the time period. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is 32.8%. However, the predicted prevalence will be 35.37% in 2020; 40.37% in 2025 and 45.36% in the year 2030. The coefficient on time factor indicated that prevalence rate has increased during 1982-2015. Saudi Arabia has a highest prevalence (32.8%) of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We forecast that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 45.36% in 2030. Saudi Arabia should include diabetes preventive measures on a war footing basis in their national health policy to minimize the burden of the disease. PMID:27339576

  1. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

  2. Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

    2008-12-01

    Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying

  3. Changes in apparent duration follow shifts in perceptual timing.

    PubMed

    Bruno, Aurelio; Ayhan, Inci; Johnston, Alan

    2015-01-01

    It is well established that the apparent duration of moving visual objects is greater at higher as compared to slower speeds. Here we report the effects of acceleration and deceleration on the perceived duration of a drifting grating with average speed kept constant (10°/s).For acceleration, increasing the speed range progressively reduced perceived duration. The magnitude of apparent duration compression was determined by speed rather than temporal frequency and was proportional to speed range (independent of standard duration) rather than acceleration. The perceived duration reduction was also proportional to the standard length. The effects of increases and decreases in speed were highly asymmetric. Reducing speed through the interval induced a moderate increase in perceived duration. These results could not be explained by changes in apparent onset or offset or differences in perceived average speed between intervals containing increasing speed and intervals containing decreasing speed. Paradoxically, for intervals combining increasing speed and decreasing speed, compression only occurred when increasing speed occurred in the second half of the interval. We show that this pattern of results in the duration domain was concomitant with changes in the reported direction of apparent motion of Gaussian blobs, embedded in intervals of increasing or decreasing speed, that could be predicted from adaptive changes in the temporal impulse response function. We detected similar changes after flicker adaptation, suggesting that the two effects might be linked through changes in the temporal tuning of visual filters. PMID:26024450

  4. Future prediction of surface ozone over east Asia using Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaji, Kazuyo; Ohara, Toshimasa; Uno, Itsushi; Kurokawa, Jun-Ichi; Pochanart, Pakpong; Akimoto, Hajime

    2008-04-01

    Present and future tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations over east Asia have been simulated by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) coupled with the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) to predict surface O3 variations caused by future anthropogenic emissions changes. For future prediction, REAS provides three emission scenarios for China (the reference (REF), the policy succeed case (PSC), and the policy failure case (PFC) scenarios) and one emission scenario (the REF scenario) for the other countries. Simulated O3 concentration in summer was relatively high (70-80 ppbv in June and 65-75 ppbv in August) over the North China Plain in 2000. The projected REF emissions for 2020 (2020REF) enhance the monthly averaged O3 to 75-90 ppbv in June and 75-85 ppbv in August. The projected PSC emissions for 2020 (2020PFC), including a slight NOx reduction of -0.2 Tg (-2%) and a large NMVOC increase of 14.3 Tg (97%) for total Chinese emissions during 2000-2020, cause the monthly and annually averaged O3 concentrations to decrease by less than 2 ppbv in northeastern and central China. Over the North China Plain, the projected PFC emissions for 2020 (2020PFC) cause significant increases, more than 20 ppbv in the monthly averaged O3, and the O3 will be 85-105 ppbv in June and 80-95 ppbv in August for 2020. The 2020PFC also affect O3 increases in early summer in South Korea (14-18 ppbv increase for monthly average) and Japan (2-14 ppbv increase for monthly average) during 2000-2020 despite the slight NOx increase of 0.4 Tg (25%) in South Korea and the slight NOx reduction of -0.2 Tg (-10%) in Japan during 2000-2020. The pollutant in these regions seems to be transport from upwind source regions. These experiments show that over central eastern China at midday in June, the O3 concentration is largely affected by NOx emission increases but is insensitive to NMVOC emission increases.

  5. JACEE long duration balloon flights

    SciTech Connect

    Burnett, T.; Iwai, J.; Lord, J.J.; Strausz, S.; Wilkes, R.J. ); Dake, S.; Oda, H. ); Miyamura, O. ); Fuki, M. ); Jones, W.V. ); Gregory, J.; Hayashi, T.; Takahashi, U. ); Tominaga,

    1989-01-01

    JACEE balloon-borne emulsion chamber detectors are used to observe the spectra and interactions of cosmic ray protons and nuclei in the energy range 1-100A TeV. Experience with long duration mid-latitude balloon flights and characteristics of the detector system that make it ideal for planned Antarctic balloon flights are discussed. 5 refs., 2 figs.

  6. Extended Duration Orbiter Medical Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leach, C. S.; Pool, S. L.; Sawin, C. F.; Nicogossian, A. E.

    1990-01-01

    The Extended Duration Orbiter (EDO) program addresses a need for more time to perform experiments and other tasks during Space Shuttle missions. As a part of this program, the Extended Duration Orbiter Medical Project (EDOMP) has been instituted to obtain information about physiologic effects of extending mission duration and the effectiveness of countermeasures against factors that might compromise crew health, safety, or performance on extended-duration missions. Only those investigations that address and characterize operational problems, develop countermeasures, or evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures will be pursued. The EDOMP investigations will include flight-associated Detailed Supplementary Objectives as well as ground-based studies simulating the influence of microgravity. Investigator teams have been formed in the following areas: biomedical physiology, cardiovascular and fluid/electrolyte physiology, environmental health, muscle and exercise physiology, and neurophysiology. Major operational questions must be answered in each of these areas, and investigations have been designed to answer them. The EDO program will proceed only after countermeasures have been shown to be effective in preventing or mitigating the adverse changes they have been designed to attenuate. The program is underway and will continue on each Shuttle flight as the manifest builds toward a 16-day orbital flight.

  7. Duration of an Elastic Collision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Izarra, Charles

    2012-01-01

    With a pedagogical goal, this paper deals with a study of the duration of an elastic collision of an inflatable spherical ball on a planar surface suitable for undergraduate studies. First, the force generated by the deformed spherical ball is obtained under assumptions that are discussed. The study of the motion of the spherical ball colliding…

  8. Architectural considerations for lunar long duration habitat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahrami, Payam

    The future of space exploration science and technology is expected to move toward long duration missions. During this long duration missions the most important factor to success will be the habitation system, the place that crew will live and work. The broad range of future space exploration, new advances in technology and increasing demand for space travel and space tourism will create great opportunities for architects to use their special abilities and skills in the realm of space. The lunar habitat is defined as a multidisciplinary task and cannot be considered an independent project from the main module. Therefore, habitability will become the most important aspect of future human exploration. A successful design strategy should integrate architecture, structure and other disciplines and should bring in elements such as psychological and physiological factors, human interfaces, and privacy. The current research provides "Habitat Architectural Design System (HADS)" in order to evaluate lunar habitat concepts based on habitability, functional optimization, and human factors. HADS helps to promote parametric studied and evaluation of habitat concepts. It will provide a guideline dependent upon mission objectives to standardize architectural needs within the engineering applications and scientific demands. The significance of this research is the process of developing lunar habitat concepts using an architectural system to evaluate the quality of each concept via habitability aspects. This process can be employed during the early stage of design development and is flexible enough to be adjusted by different parameters according to the objectives of lunar mission, limitations, and cost. It also emphasizes the importance of architecture involvement in space projects, especially habitats.

  9. Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact

    PubMed Central

    Mazloumian, Amin

    2012-01-01

    We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ( for a 1-year prediction, ) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly predictable. PMID:23185311

  10. Planning for the future

    SciTech Connect

    Lesh, Pamela

    2009-06-15

    Four changes to integrated resource planning could significantly improve alignment between future utility spending and the forces and changes that are upending past preconceptions of how to predict future load. (author)

  11. Development and application of generalized-least-squares regression models to estimate low-flow duration discharges in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G., III

    1994-01-01

    Physically based mathematical models were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression analyses to estimate long-term 95-, 98-, and 99-percent duration discharges for ungaged streams in Massachusetts. Duration discharges for 61 sites were used in the recession analyses; 37 sites were streamflow-gaging stations and 24 sites were low-flow partial-record stations. The duration discharges were related to basin chacteristics measured from digital data bases, by use of geographic information systems computer software. Significant chacterisfics used in the models were drainage area, area underlain by stratified-drift deposits per unit of stream length in the basin, and a surrogate for the effective head on the aquifer in the stratified-drift deposits, computed by subtracting the minimum basin elevation from the mean basin elevation. Standard errors of prediction were 57.5, 85.6, and 98.5 percent for models for the 95-, 98-, and 99-percent duration discharges, respectively. Model error variances were about 10 times the sampling error variances, indicating that the precision of future models are likely to be improved more by obtaining better measurements of basin characteristics or by adding new sites to the analyses than by collecting more streamflow data at the sites presently used in the analyses. The models were used to predict duration discharges for 35 selected sites in the Concord River, Noah Coastal, South Coastal, Narragansett and Tenmile River Basins. Ninety-perrcent prediction intervals were computed for the estimates at each of the sites, except at sites where values of the independent variables were outside the ranges of those for the sites used in the regression analyses.

  12. Space immunology - Past, present and future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coulter, Gary R.; Taylor, Gerald R.; Sonnenfeld, Gerald

    1989-01-01

    Research results on the causes and mechanisms of change in immune systems during spaceflight are briefly reviewed. The most reliable conclusion from the sparse existing data is that postflight crew members exhibit a transient neutrophilia, eosinopenia, monocytopenia, reduced numbers of circulating T cells, and an often pronounced decrease in the ability of their T cells to respond to mitogen stimulation. Clinically, no direct predictive relationship between any of these measurements and increased health risk or disease has been established. Future areas of research are suggested in light of NASA's emerging requirements to support long-duration missions.

  13. FLUOROSCOPY DURATION IN ORTHOPEDIC SURGERY

    PubMed Central

    Salvia, Joao Caron La; de Moraes, Pablo Reis; Ammar, Tiago Yossef; Schwartsmann, Carlos Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To ascertain the mean length of radiation emission from fluoroscopic devices during several types of orthopedic surgery and which of these required greater use of radiation. Methods: The times taken to perform sixteen different types of surgery (total of 80 procedures) were measured. At the end of each procedure, the length of time for which fluoroscopy was used directly from the image intensifier was ascertained. Results: The mean time required for fluoroscopy per operation was 61 seconds. The procedures that demanded greatest mean duration of radiation use were bilateral proximal femoral epiphysiodesis (5.1 minutes) and femoral shaft osteosynthesis using a locked intramedullary nail (3.33 min). Conclusion: The mean duration of fluoroscopy use in orthopedic operations was 61 seconds. The procedures using an intramedullary device were the ones that required greatest radiation emission. PMID:27027000

  14. Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective.

    PubMed

    Baltensperger, A P; Huettmann, F

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

  15. Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

  16. Feeding the Astronauts During Long Duration Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perchonok, Michele

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the issues surrounding feeding astronauts during long duration missions. There is a brief history from the food and food packaging available during Project Mercury through the current food requirements. It shows the packaging and the requirements that have been used. The current food system includes thermostabilized and irradiated foods to reduce the potential of harmful microorganisms. There is an explanation of drinks available, rehydratable foods, and natural forms of food, (i.e., commercially available foods that are packaged in individual serving sizes). There is also discussion of the requirements for future missions, and the research gap for requirements for food that will last 5 years, with packaging and nutrients intact.

  17. Drug stability analyzer for long duration spaceflights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shende, Chetan; Smith, Wayne; Brouillette, Carl; Farquharson, Stuart

    2014-06-01

    Crewmembers of current and future long duration spaceflights require drugs to overcome the deleterious effects of weightlessness, sickness and injuries. Unfortunately, recent studies have shown that some of the drugs currently used may degrade more rapidly in space, losing their potency well before their expiration dates. To complicate matters, the degradation products of some drugs can be toxic. Consequently there is a need for an analyzer that can determine if a drug is safe at the time of use, as well as to monitor and understand space-induced degradation, so that drug types, formulations, and packaging can be improved. Towards this goal we have been investigating the ability of Raman spectroscopy to monitor and quantify drug degradation. Here we present preliminary data by measuring acetaminophen, and its degradation product, p-aminophenol, as pure samples, and during forced degradation reactions.

  18. Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time. PMID:25530753

  19. NEXT Long-Duration Test Neutralizer Performance and Erosion Characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced capabilities at a low total development cost. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster based on mission analyses. As of September 2, 2009, the thruster has accumulated 24,400 hr of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 434 kg of xenon, surpassing the NASA Solar Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program thruster propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal of 450 kg. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.1 10(exp 6zzz0 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. A reduction in neutralizer flow margin has been the only appreciable source of thruster performance degradation. The behavior of the neutralizer is not easily predicted due to both erosion and deposition observed in previous wear tests. Spot-to-plume mode transition flow data and in-situ erosion results for the LDT neutralizer are discussed. This loss of flow margin has been addressed through a combination of a design change in the prototype-model neutralizer to increase flow margin at low emission current and to update the NEXT throttle table to ensure adequate flow margin as a function of propellant throughput processed. The new throttle table will be used for future LDT operations. The performance of the NEXT LDT neutralizer is consistent with that observed for long-life hollow cathodes. The neutralizer life-limiting failure modes are progressing as expected

  20. Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

    2010-01-01

    Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

  1. Not Just the Demographic Change – The Impact of Trends in Risk Factor Prevalences on the Prediction of Future Cases of Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Bahr, Jeanette; Weitmann, Kerstin; Herold, Robert; Kohlmann, Thomas; van den Berg, Neeltje

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous predictions of population morbidity consider demographic changes only. To model future morbidity, however, changes in prevalences of risk factors should be considered. We calculated the number of incident cases of first myocardial infarction (MI) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2017 considering the effects of demographic changes and trends in the prevalences of major risk factors simultaneously. Methods Data basis of the analysis were two population-based cohorts of the German Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-baseline [1997–2001] and the 5-year follow-up and SHIP-Trend-baseline [2008–2011] respectively). SHIP-baseline data were used to calculate the initial coefficients for major risk factors for MI with a Poisson regression model. The dependent variable was the number of incident cases of MI between SHIP-baseline and SHIP-5-year follow-up. Explanatory variables were sex, age, a validated diagnosis of hypertension and/or diabetes, smoking, waist circumference (WC), increased blood levels of triglycerides (TG) and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and low blood levels of high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL). Applying the coefficients determined for SHIP baseline to risk factor prevalences, derived from the new cohort SHIP-Trend together with population forecast data, we calculated the projected number of incident cases of MI in 2017. Results Except for WC and smoking in females, prevalences of risk factors in SHIP-Trend-baseline were lower compared to SHIP-baseline. Based on demographic changes only, the calculated incidence of MI for 2017 compared to the reference year 2006 yields an increase of MI (males: +11.5%, females: +8.0%). However, a decrease of MI (males: -23.7%, females: -17.1%) is shown considering the changes in the prevalences of risk factors in the projection. Conclusions The predicted number of incident cases of MI shows large differences between models with and without considering changes in the

  2. Will the Scottish Cancer Target for the year 2000 be met? The use of cancer registration and death records to predict future cancer incidence and mortality in Scotland.

    PubMed Central

    Sharp, L.; Black, R. J.; Muir, C. S.; Gemmell, I.; Finlayson, A. R.; Harkness, E. F.

    1996-01-01

    Cancer mortality data reflect disease incidence and the effectiveness of treatment. Incidence data, however, reflect the burden of disease in the population and indicate the need for prevention measures, diagnostic services and cancer treatment facilities. Monitoring of targets mandates that both be considered. The Scottish Cancer Target, established in 1991, proposed that a reduction of 15% in mortality from cancer in the under-65s should be achieved between 1986 and 2000. Each year in Scotland approximately 8300 persons under 65 are diagnosed with cancer and 4500 die from the disease. The most common malignancies, in terms of both incident cases and deaths, in the under-65s, are lung and large bowel cancer in males, and breast, large bowel and lung cancer in females. A decrease of 6% in the number of cancer cases diagnosed in males under 65 is predicted between 1986 and 2000, whereas the number of cases in females in the year 2000 is expected to remain at the 1986 level. In contrast, substantial reductions in mortality are expected for both sexes: 17% and 25% in males and females respectively. Demographic changes will influence the numbers of cancer cases and deaths in the Scottish population in the year 2000. However, long-term trends in the major risk factors, such as smoking, are likely to be the most important determinants of the future cancer burden. PMID:8624273

  3. Prediction equations for corrosion rates of a A-537 and A-516 steels in Double Shell Slurry, Future PUREX, and Hanford Facilities Wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Divine, J.R.; Bowen, W.M.; Mackey, D.B.; Bates, D.J.; Pool, K.H.

    1985-06-01

    Even though the interest in the corrosion of radwaste tanks goes back to the mid-1940's when waste storage was begun, and a fair amount of corrosion work has been done since then, the changes in processes and waste types have outpaced the development of new data pertinent to the new double shell tanks. As a consequence, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) began a development of corrosion data on a broad base of waste compositions in 1980. The objective of the program was to provide operations personnel with corrosion rate data as a function of waste temperature and composition. The work performed in this program examined A-537 tank steel in Double Shell Slurry and Future PUREX Wastes, at temperatures between 40 and 180/sup 0/C as well as in Hanford Facilities Waste at 25 and 50/sup 0/C. In general, the corrosion rates were less than 1 mpy (0.001 in./y) and usually less than 0.5 mpy. Excessive corrosion rates (>1 mpy) were only found in dilute waste compositions or in concentrated caustic compositions at temperatures above 140/sup 0/C. Stress corrosion cracking was only observed under similar conditions. The results are presented as polynomial prediction equations with examples of the output of existing computer codes. The codes are not provided in the text but are available from the authors. 12 refs., 5 figs., 19 tabs.

  4. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  5. Recalled Initiation and Duration of Maternal Breastfeeding Among Children with and Without ADHD in a Well Characterized Case-Control Sample.

    PubMed

    Stadler, Diane D; Musser, Erica D; Holton, Kathleen F; Shannon, Jackilen; Nigg, Joel T

    2016-02-01

    Early environmental influences are increasingly of interest in understanding ADHD as a neurodevelopmental condition, particularly in light of recognition that gene by environment interplay are likely involved in this condition. Breastfeeding duration predicts cognitive development, as well as development of brain white matter connectivity, in areas similar to those seen in ADHD. Prior studies show an association between breastfeeding and ADHD but without adequate evaluation of ADHD. A case control cohort of 474 children aged 7-13 years was examined, 291 with well characterized ADHD (71.5 % male) and the rest typically developing controls (51.9 % male). Mothers retrospectively reported on breast feeding initiation and duration. Initiation of breastfeeding was not associated with child ADHD, but shorter duration of breastfeeding was associated with child ADHD with a medium effect size (d = 0.40, p < 0.05); this effect held after covarying a broad set of potential confounders, including child oppositional defiant and conduct problems and including maternal and paternal ADHD symptoms. Effects were replicated across both parent and teacher ratings of child ADHD symptoms. Shorter duration of breastfeeding is among several risk factors in early life associated with future ADHD, or else longer duration is protective. The direction of this effect is unknown, however. It may be that some children are more difficult to breastfeed or that breastfeeding provides nutrients or other benefits that reduce future chance of ADHD. PMID:25749651

  6. Voice attractiveness: influence of stimulus duration and type.

    PubMed

    Ferdenzi, C; Patel, S; Mehu-Blantar, I; Khidasheli, M; Sander, D; Delplanque, S

    2013-06-01

    Voice attractiveness is a relatively new area of research. Some aspects of the methodology used in this domain deserve particular attention. Especially, the duration of voice samples is often neglected as a factor and happens to be manipulated without the perceptual consequences of these manipulations being known. Moreover, the type of voice stimulus varies from a single vowel to complex sentences. The aim of this experiment was to investigate the extent to which stimulus duration (nonmanipulated vs. normalized) and type (vowel vs. word) influence perceived voice attractiveness. Twenty-seven male and female raters made attractiveness judgments of 30 male and female voice samples. Voice samples included a single vowel /a/, a three-vowel series /i a o/, and the French word "bonjour" (i.e., "hello"). These samples were presented in three conditions: nonmanipulated, shortened, and lengthened duration. Duration manipulation was performed using the pitch synchronous overlap and add (PSOLA) algorithm implemented in Praat. Results for the effect of stimulus type showed that word length samples were more attractive to the opposite sex than vowels. Results for the effect of duration showed that the nonmanipulated sound sample duration was not predictive of perceived attractiveness. Duration manipulation, on the other hand, altered perceived attractiveness for the lengthening condition. In particular, there was a linear decrease in attractiveness as a function of modification percentage (especially for the word, as compared with the vowels). Recommendations for voice sample normalization with the PSOLA algorithm are thus to prefer shortening over lengthening and, if not possible, to limit the extent of duration manipulation-for example, by normalizing to the mean sample duration. PMID:23239065

  7. Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.

    PubMed

    Mwalusepo, Sizah; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Massawe, Estomih S; Okuku, Gerphas O; Khadioli, Nancy; Johansson, Tino; Calatayud, Paul-André; Le Ru, Bruno Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity

  8. Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

    PubMed Central

    Mwalusepo, Sizah; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Massawe, Estomih S.; Okuku, Gerphas O.; Khadioli, Nancy; Johansson, Tino; Calatayud, Paul-André; Le Ru, Bruno Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity

  9. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  10. Sleep Duration and Area-Level Deprivation in Twins

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Nathaniel F.; Horn, Erin; Duncan, Glen E.; Buchwald, Dedra; Vitiello, Michael V.; Turkheimer, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: We used quantitative genetic models to assess whether area-level deprivation as indicated by the Singh Index predicts shorter sleep duration and modifies its underlying genetic and environmental contributions. Methods: Participants were 4,218 adult twin pairs (2,377 monozygotic and 1,841 dizygotic) from the University of Washington Twin Registry. Participants self-reported habitual sleep duration. The Singh Index was determined by linking geocoding addresses to 17 indicators at the census-tract level using data from Census of Washington State and Census Tract Cartographic Boundary Files from 2000 and 2010. Data were analyzed using univariate and bivariate genetic decomposition and quantitative genetic interaction models that assessed A (additive genetics), C (common environment), and E (unique environment) main effects of the Singh Index on sleep duration and allowed the magnitude of residual ACE variance components in sleep duration to vary with the Index. Results: The sample had a mean age of 38.2 y (standard deviation [SD] = 18), and was predominantly female (62%) and Caucasian (91%). Mean sleep duration was 7.38 h (SD = 1.20) and the mean Singh Index score was 0.00 (SD = 0.89). The heritability of sleep duration was 39% and the Singh Index was 12%. The uncontrolled phenotypic regression of sleep duration on the Singh Index showed a significant negative relationship between area-level deprivation and sleep length (b = −0.080, P < 0.001). Every 1 SD in Singh Index was associated with a ∼4.5 min change in sleep duration. For the quasi-causal bivariate model, there was a significant main effect of E (b0E = −0.063; standard error [SE] = 0.30; P < 0.05). Residual variance components unique to sleep duration were significant for both A (b0Au = 0.734; SE = 0.020; P < 0.001) and E (b0Eu = 0.934; SE = 0.013; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Area-level deprivation has a quasi-causal association with sleep duration, with greater deprivation being related to

  11. Incorporating Satellite Remote Sensing Data into Hydrologic Models: Towards Improved Performance in Modeling the Past and Reduced Uncertainty in Predicting the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parr, D.; Wang, G.

    2014-12-01

    In many regions of the worlds, studies of past hydrological variability have to rely on hydrological models either because river gauge measurement is not available or because measurements do not reflect the natural flow due to water diversion or reservoir regulation. However, results from these studies are subject to major uncertainty related to the challenges in quantifying vegetation conditions and evapotranspiration, both of which are important for surface water and energy budgets. This study incorporates satellite remote sensing data for ET and vegetation into the VIC model to improve the model performance in simulating the surface water budget, hydrological seasonality, and timing of hydrological extremes. Using the Connecticut River Basin as an example, and driven with the NASA NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing data, the VIC model has been modified to read in LAI and ET data derived from MODIS among others. The MODIS LAI data provides VIC with the inter-annually varying seasonal cycle of vegetation, and the MODIS ET data replaces the model simulated ET. The data-enhanced model performs significantly better in simulating river discharge, its magnitude, seasonality, timing, soil moisture and its temporal variation. Incorporation of the ET data led to an increase of stream flow correlations between model and observations on the daily and biweekly temporal scales, and the seasonality is better represented on a monthly scale with particular magnitude improvements during the summer when ET is greatest. Incorporation of the LAI data led to improved simulation of inter-annual variability. This joint application of remote sensing and modeling helps quantify the extent to which remote sensing data improves model performance, facilitates a more accurate understanding and attribution of past hydrological variability/changes, and helps characterize the range of model-related uncertainties in future predictions.

  12. Inverse modeling using PS-InSAR for improved calibration of hydraulic parameters and prediction of future subsidence for Las Vegas Valley, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burbey, T. J.; Zhang, M.

    2015-11-01

    Las Vegas Valley has had a long history of surface deformation due to groundwater pumping that began in the early 20th century. After nearly 80 years of pumping, PS-InSAR interferograms have revealed detailed and complex spatial patterns of subsidence in the Las Vegas Valley area that do not coincide with major pumping regions. High spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR and hydraulic head data were used to inversely calibrate transmissivities (T), elastic and inelastic skeletal storage coefficients (Ske and Skv) of the developed-zone aquifer and conductance (CR) of the basin-fill faults for the entire Las Vegas basin. The results indicate that the subsidence observations from PS-InSAR are extremely beneficial for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters, and the model calibration results are far more accurate than when using only water-levels as observations, and just a few random subsidence observations. Future predictions of land subsidence to year 2030 were made on the basis of existing pumping patterns and rates. Simulation results suggests that subsidence will continue in northwest subsidence bowl area, which is expected to undergo an additional 11.3 cm of subsidence. Even mitigation measures that include artificial recharge and reduced pumping do not significantly reduce the compaction in the northwest subsidence bowl. This is due to the slow draining of thick confining units in the region. However, a small amount of uplift of 0.4 cm is expected in the North and Central bowl areas over the next 20 years.

  13. Stage-specific heat effects: timing and duration of heat waves alter demographic rates of a global insect pest.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Rudolf, Volker H W; Ma, Chun-Sen

    2015-12-01

    The frequency and duration of periods with high temperatures are expected to increase under global warming. Thus, even short-lived organisms are increasingly likely to experience periods of hot temperatures at some point of their life-cycle. Despite recent progress, it remains unclear how various temperature experiences during the life-cycle of organisms affect demographic traits. We simulated hot days (daily mean temperature of 30 °C) increasingly experienced under field conditions and investigated how the timing and duration of such hot days during the life cycle of Plutella xylostella affects adult traits. We show that hot days experienced during some life stages (but not all) altered adult lifespan, fecundity, and oviposition patterns. Importantly, the effects of hot days were contingent on which stage was affected, and these stage-specific effects were not always additive. Thus, adults that experience different temporal patterns of hot periods (i.e., changes in timing and duration) during their life-cycle often had different demographic rates and reproductive patterns. These results indicate that we cannot predict the effects of current and future climate on natural populations by simply focusing on changes in the mean temperature. Instead, we need to incorporate the temporal patterns of heat events relative to the life-cycle of organisms to describe population dynamics and how they will respond to future climate change. PMID:26255274

  14. Global sensitivity analysis of CMIP5 predictions of future changes in precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and drought index (SPEI) over the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.; Hwang, S.

    2014-12-01

    Projecting evapotranspiration for estimating future agricultural irrigation demand is uncertain because estimates of future precipitation and evapotranspiration vary significantly depending on the Global Climate Model (GCM), future RCP emission scenario and reference evapotranspiration (RET) estimation method selected. Understanding the relative contributions of these various sources of uncertainty is important for effective long-term water resource planning. In this study variance-based sensitivity analysis (Saltelli et al., 2010) was used to assess the sensitivity of estimated future changes in precipitation, RET and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought index (SPEI) to 9 GCMs, 3 RCP scenarios, and 11 ET estimation methods over 9 regions of the United States for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2070-2100. Future changes in precipitation were found to be most sensitive to GCM selection for all U.S. regions and both future periods. For projecting changes in future RET and SPEI, the selection of ET method and GCM were more sensitive than the selection of RCP scenario. In general, changes in ET and SPEI were most sensitive to ET estimation methods in the cold season and to GCM selection in the warm season; however sensitivities differed by region, season and future period. This study underscores the importance of evaluating projections of future agricultural irrigation demand for an ensemble of GCMs and ET estimation methods rather than relying on few GCMs and a single ET estimation method.

  15. Normal labor: mechanism and duration.

    PubMed

    Liao, John B; Buhimschi, Catalin S; Norwitz, Errol R

    2005-06-01

    Labor is refers to the chain of physiologic events that allows a fetus to undertake its journey from the uterus to the outside world. The mean duration of a singleton preganancy is 40.0 weeks (280 days), which is dated from the first day of the last normal menstrual period. The period from 37.0 weeks (259 days) to 42.0 weeks (294 days) of gestation is regarded as "term". This article focuses on the onset progress, and mechanics of normal labor term. Topics such as preterm labor (labor before 37 weeks), postterm labor (labor after 42 weeks), and abnormal labor and delivery have not been addressed and are discussed in detail elsewhere in this issue. PMID:15899352

  16. Diffusion from a steady source of short duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palazzi, E.; De Faveri, M.; Fumarola, G.; Ferraiolo, G.

    Releases of short duration can result from safety valves, rupture disks, sudden failures of storage tanks, reactors, lines, etc. Models for atmospheric dispersion of continuous, constant flow rate or instantaneous emissions lack reliability in those instances, because they do not take into account certain indispensable parameters, such as release duration, release starting time and exposure time. This paper offers a mathematical model which has been developed and validated with field experiments, with the intention of supplying reference material for design purposes (relief valves, plant design and layout) or for predicting potential consequences of a leakage, such as fires, explosions, contaminations.

  17. Contracts on Tomorrow: How Future Prices Foretell the Economic Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Russ

    1983-01-01

    Futures--agreements between buyers and sellers to execute transactions sometime in the future at prices agreed upon today--are a convenient crystal ball through which economic prophets can gaze at the future. How futures prices work and how anyone can use them to predict the economic future are discussed. (Author/RM)

  18. SPEECH DURATIONS OF ASTRONAUT AND GROUND COMMUNICATOR.

    PubMed

    MATARAZZO, J D; WIENS, A N; SASLOW, G; DUNHAM, R M; VOAS, R B

    1964-01-10

    Laboratory studies suggest that an interviewer can influence the speech duration of an interviewee by modifications in his own speech duration. What appears to be a related association between the speech duration of communicators on the ground and an astronaut in orbital flight was found. PMID:14075727

  19. The Duration of Motor Responses Evoked with Intracortical Microstimulation in Rats Is Primarily Modulated by Stimulus Amplitude and Train Duration

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Meghan; Sawan, Mohamad

    2016-01-01

    Microstimulation of brain tissue plays a key role in a variety of sensory prosthetics, clinical therapies and research applications, however the effects of stimulation parameters on the responses they evoke remain widely unknown. In particular, the effects of parameters when delivered in the form of a stimulus train as opposed to a single pulse are not well understood despite the prevalence of stimulus train use. We aimed to investigate the contribution of each parameter of a stimulus train to the duration of the motor responses they evoke in forelimb muscles. We used constant-current, biphasic, square wave pulse trains in acute terminal experiments under ketamine anaesthesia. Stimulation parameters were systematically tested in a pair-wise fashion in the caudal forelimb region of the motor cortex in 7 Sprague-Dawley rats while motor evoked potential (MEP) recordings from the forelimb were used to quantify the influence of each parameter in the train. Stimulus amplitude and train duration were shown to be the dominant parameters responsible for increasing the total duration of the MEP, while interphase interval had no effect. Increasing stimulus frequency from 100–200 Hz or pulse duration from 0.18–0.34 ms were also effective methods of extending response durations. Response duration was strongly correlated with peak time and amplitude. Our findings suggest that motor cortex intracortical microstimulations are often conducted at a higher frequency rate and longer train duration than necessary to evoke maximal response duration. We demonstrated that the temporal properties of the evoked response can be both predicted by certain response metrics and modulated via alterations to the stimulation signal parameters. PMID:27442588

  20. The Duration of Motor Responses Evoked with Intracortical Microstimulation in Rats Is Primarily Modulated by Stimulus Amplitude and Train Duration.

    PubMed

    Watson, Meghan; Sawan, Mohamad; Dancause, Numa

    2016-01-01

    Microstimulation of brain tissue plays a key role in a variety of sensory prosthetics, clinical therapies and research applications, however the effects of stimulation parameters on the responses they evoke remain widely unknown. In particular, the effects of parameters when delivered in the form of a stimulus train as opposed to a single pulse are not well understood despite the prevalence of stimulus train use. We aimed to investigate the contribution of each parameter of a stimulus train to the duration of the motor responses they evoke in forelimb muscles. We used constant-current, biphasic, square wave pulse trains in acute terminal experiments under ketamine anaesthesia. Stimulation parameters were systematically tested in a pair-wise fashion in the caudal forelimb region of the motor cortex in 7 Sprague-Dawley rats while motor evoked potential (MEP) recordings from the forelimb were used to quantify the influence of each parameter in the train. Stimulus amplitude and train duration were shown to be the dominant parameters responsible for increasing the total duration of the MEP, while interphase interval had no effect. Increasing stimulus frequency from 100-200 Hz or pulse duration from 0.18-0.34 ms were also effective methods of extending response durations. Response duration was strongly correlated with peak time and amplitude. Our findings suggest that motor cortex intracortical microstimulations are often conducted at a higher frequency rate and longer train duration than necessary to evoke maximal response duration. We demonstrated that the temporal properties of the evoked response can be both predicted by certain response metrics and modulated via alterations to the stimulation signal parameters. PMID:27442588

  1. Can Mapping Glacial Deposits Help Predict the Location of Future Thermal Erosion Features in Arctic Alaska? A study from the Selawik River Basin, Northwest Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanan, K. M.; Crosby, B. T.

    2011-12-01

    lesser last glacial ice to receive coarse sediment or incision of the bluff occurred prior to the last glacial deposition and that sediment covers the valley floor. Ages of stratigraphic units will be constrained using OSL, radiocarbon and tephrochronology. Extrapolation of observations from river bluff exposures across the basin is supported by analysis using both visible and infrared stereo imagery. Each of five active RTSs identified along the river occurs within a diamict or silt unit. We suspect that these units may be more prone to large thermal erosion features because units with higher proportions of fines retain thawed fluids and efficiently transport sediment off surfaces, continually exposing deeper frozen ground. Though it is not evident in the large active slump, diamict is also commonly associated with unstable buried glacial ice. Identifying relationships between Quaternary depositional units and their susceptibility to thermal erosion will help land mangers predict which areas are most prone to future instability.

  2. Repair of Electronics for Long Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pettegrew, Richard D.; Easton, John; Struk, Peter

    2007-01-01

    To reduce mission risk, long duration spaceflight and exploration activities will require greater degrees of self-sufficiency with regards to repair capability than have ever been employed before in space exploration. The current repair paradigm of replacing Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) of malfunctioning avionics and electronic hardware will be impractical, since carrying all of the spares that could possibly be needed for a long duration mission would require upmass and volume at unprecedented and unacceptable levels. A strategy of component-level repair for electronics, however, could significantly reduce the mass and volume necessary for spares and enhance mission safety via a generic contingency capability. This approach is already used to varying degrees by the U.S. Navy, where vessels at sea experience some similar constraints such as the need for self sufficiency for moderately long time periods, and restrictions on volume of repair spares and infrastructure. The concept of conducting component-level repairs of electronics in spacecraft requires the development of design guidelines for future avionics (to enable repair), development of diagnostic techniques to allow an astronaut to pinpoint the faulty component aboard a vastly complex vehicle, and development of tools and methodologies for dealing with the physical processes of replacing the component. This physical process includes tasks such as conformal coating removal and replacement, component removal, replacement, and alignment--all in the difficulty of a reduced gravity environment. Further, the gravitational effects on the soldering process must be characterized and accounted for to ensure reliability of the newly repaired components. The Component-Level Electronics-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) project under the NASA Supportability program was established to develop and demonstrate the practicality of this repair approach. CLEAR involves collaborative efforts between NASA s Glenn Research Center

  3. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  4. Mental time travel: effects of trial duration on episodic and semantic content.

    PubMed

    Cole, Scott N; Gill, Natalie C L; Conway, Martin A; Morrison, Catriona M

    2012-01-01

    Studies exploring mental time travel commonly use cue-word paradigms to elicit past and future autobiographical events. However, the effect of trial duration (how long participants are allowed to describe events) on the relationship between episodic and nonepisodic detail and episodic specificity (i.e., whether longer durations increase event specificity) has not been examined. To resolve these issues, a cue-word study was devised whereby participants described past and future events under three randomly administered time constraints: short (1-min), standard (3-min), and long (5-min) durations. Findings indicated that an individual's capacity for episodic and nonepisodic thought for the past and future were unrelated. This lends supports to the idea that independent mechanisms are responsible for episodic and semantic information. This study also offers clarity concerning the effect of different trial durations on episodic specificity, which may aid the design of future studies of mental time travel. PMID:23190177

  5. Arousal and exposure duration affect forward step initiation.

    PubMed

    Bouman, Daniëlle; Stins, John F; Beek, Peter J

    2015-01-01

    Emotion influences parameters of goal-directed whole-body movements in several ways. For instance, previous research has shown that approaching (moving toward) pleasant stimuli is easier compared to approaching unpleasant stimuli. However, some studies found that when emotional pictures are viewed for a longer time, approaching unpleasant stimuli may in fact be facilitated. The effect of viewing duration may have modulated whole-body approach movement in previous research but this has not been investigated to date. In the current study, participants initiated a step forward after viewing neutral, high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. The viewing duration of the stimuli was set to seven different durations, varying from 100 to 4000 ms. Valence and arousal scores were collected for all stimuli. The results indicate that both viewing duration and the arousal of the stimuli influence kinematic parameters in forward gait initiation. Specifically, longer viewing duration, compared to shorter viewing duration, (a) diminished the step length and peak velocity in both neutral and emotional stimuli, (b) increased reaction time in neutral stimuli and, (c) decreased reaction time in pleasant and unpleasant stimuli. Strikingly, no differences were found between high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. In other words, the valence of the stimuli did not influence kinematic parameters of forward step initiation. Instead the arousal level (neutral: low; pleasant and unpleasant: high) explained the variance found in the results. The kinematics of forward gait initiation seemed to be reflected in the subjective arousal scores, but not the valence scores. So it seems arousal affects forward gait initiation parameters more strongly than valence. In addition, longer viewing duration seemed to cause diminished alertness, affecting GI parameters. These results shed new light on the prevailing theoretical interpretations regarding approach motivation

  6. Arousal and exposure duration affect forward step initiation

    PubMed Central

    Bouman, Daniëlle; Stins, John F.; Beek, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Emotion influences parameters of goal-directed whole-body movements in several ways. For instance, previous research has shown that approaching (moving toward) pleasant stimuli is easier compared to approaching unpleasant stimuli. However, some studies found that when emotional pictures are viewed for a longer time, approaching unpleasant stimuli may in fact be facilitated. The effect of viewing duration may have modulated whole-body approach movement in previous research but this has not been investigated to date. In the current study, participants initiated a step forward after viewing neutral, high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. The viewing duration of the stimuli was set to seven different durations, varying from 100 to 4000 ms. Valence and arousal scores were collected for all stimuli. The results indicate that both viewing duration and the arousal of the stimuli influence kinematic parameters in forward gait initiation. Specifically, longer viewing duration, compared to shorter viewing duration, (a) diminished the step length and peak velocity in both neutral and emotional stimuli, (b) increased reaction time in neutral stimuli and, (c) decreased reaction time in pleasant and unpleasant stimuli. Strikingly, no differences were found between high-arousal pleasant and high-arousal unpleasant stimuli. In other words, the valence of the stimuli did not influence kinematic parameters of forward step initiation. Instead the arousal level (neutral: low; pleasant and unpleasant: high) explained the variance found in the results. The kinematics of forward gait initiation seemed to be reflected in the subjective arousal scores, but not the valence scores. So it seems arousal affects forward gait initiation parameters more strongly than valence. In addition, longer viewing duration seemed to cause diminished alertness, affecting GI parameters. These results shed new light on the prevailing theoretical interpretations regarding approach motivation

  7. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Sandoval, L.; Leveton, L.; Arias, D.

    2011-01-01

    In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

  8. Effects of predicted future and current atmospheric temperature and [CO2] and high and low soil moisture on gas exchange and growth of Pinus taeda seedlings at cool and warm sites in the species range.

    PubMed

    Wertin, Timothy M; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O

    2012-07-01

    Predicted future changes in air temperature and atmospheric CO(2) concentration ([CO(2)]), coupled with altered precipitation, are expected to substantially affect tree growth. Effects on growth may vary considerably across a species range, as temperatures vary from sub-optimal to supra-optimal for growth. We performed an experiment simultaneously at two locations in the current range of loblolly pine, a cool site and a warm site, to examine the effect of future climate conditions on growth of loblolly pine seedlings in contrasting regions of the species range. At both sites 1-year-old loblolly pine seedlings were grown in current (local ambient temperature and [CO(2)]) and predicted future atmospheric conditions (ambient +2 °C temperature and 700 μmol mol(-1) [CO(2)]). Additionally, high and low soil moisture treatments were applied within each atmospheric treatment at each site by altering the amount of water provided to the seedlings. Averaged across water treatments, photosynthesis (A(net)) was 31% greater at the cool site and 34% greater at the warm site in elevated temperature and [CO(2)] compared with ambient temperature. Biomass accumulation was also stimulated by 38% at the cool site and by 24% at the warm site in that treatment. These results suggest that a temperature increase of 2 °C coupled with an increase in [CO(2)] (predicted future climate) will create conditions favorable for growth of this species. Reduced soil moisture decreased growth in both current and predicted atmospheric conditions. Biomass accumulation and A(net) were reduced by ∼39 and 17%, respectively, in the low water treatment. These results suggest that any benefit of future atmospheric conditions may be negated if soil moisture is reduced by altered precipitation patterns. PMID:22696270

  9. Sentence durations and accentedness judgments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, Z. S.; Stockmal, Verna; Markus, Dace

    2003-04-01

    Talkers in a second language can frequently be identified as speaking with a foreign accent. It is not clear to what degree a foreign accent represents specific deviations from a target language versus more general characteristics. We examined the identifications of native and non-native talkers by listeners with various amount of knowledge of the target language. Native and non-native speakers of Latvian provided materials. All the non-native talkers spoke Russian as their first language and were long-term residents of Latvia. A listening test, containing sentences excerpted from a short recorded passage, was presented to three groups of listeners: native speakers of Latvian, Russians for whom Latvian was a second language, and Americans with no knowledge of either of the two languages. The listeners were asked to judge whether each utterance was produced by a native or non-native talker. The Latvians identified the non-native talkers very accurately, 88%. The Russians were somewhat less accurate, 83%. The American listeners were least accurate, but still identified the non-native talkers at above chance levels, 62%. Sentence durations correlated with the judgments provided by the American listeners but not with the judgments provided by native or L2 listeners.

  10. Extended Duration Orbiter Medical Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sawin, Charles F. (Editor); Taylor, Gerald R. (Editor); Smith, Wanda L. (Editor); Brown, J. Travis (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Biomedical issues have presented a challenge to flight physicians, scientists, and engineers ever since the advent of high-speed, high-altitude airplane flight in the 1940s. In 1958, preparations began for the first manned space flights of Project Mercury. The medical data and flight experience gained through Mercury's six flights and the Gemini, Apollo, and Skylab projects, as well as subsequent space flights, comprised the knowledge base that was used to develop and implement the Extended Duration Orbiter Medical Project (EDOMP). The EDOMP yielded substantial amounts of data in six areas of space biomedical research. In addition, a significant amount of hardware was developed and tested under the EDOMP. This hardware was designed to improve data gathering capabilities and maintain crew physical fitness, while minimizing the overall impact to the microgravity environment. The biomedical findings as well as the hardware development results realized from the EDOMP have been important to the continuing success of extended Space Shuttle flights and have formed the basis for medical studies of crew members living for three to five months aboard the Russian space station, Mir. EDOMP data and hardware are also being used in preparation for the construction and habitation of International Space Station. All data sets were grouped to be non-attributable to individuals, and submitted to NASA s Life Sciences Data Archive.

  11. Icing Encounter Duration Sensitivity Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Lee, Sam

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a study performed to investigate how aerodynamic performance degradation progresses with time throughout an exposure to icing conditions. It is one of the first documented studies of the effects of ice contamination on aerodynamic performance at various points in time throughout an icing encounter. Both a 1.5 and 6 ft chord, two-dimensional, NACA-23012 airfoils were subjected to icing conditions in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel for varying lengths of time. At the end of each run, lift, drag, and pitching moment measurements were made. Measurements with the 1.5 ft chord model showed that maximum lift and pitching moment degraded more rapidly early in the exposure and degraded more slowly as time progressed. Drag for the 1.5 ft chord model degraded more linearly with time, although drag for very short exposure durations was slightly higher than expected. Only drag measurements were made with the 6 ft chord airfoil. Here, drag for the long exposures was higher than expected. Novel comparison of drag measurements versus an icing scaling parameter, accumulation parameter times collection efficiency was used to compare the data from the two different size model. The comparisons provided a means of assessing the level of fidelity needed for accurate icing simulation.

  12. Visual duration aftereffect is position invariant

    PubMed Central

    Li, Baolin; Yuan, Xiangyong; Chen, Youguo; Liu, Peiduo; Huang, Xiting

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to relatively long or short sensory events leads to a negative aftereffect, such that the durations of the subsequent events within a certain range appear to be contracted or expanded. The distortion in perceived duration is presumed to arise from the adaptation of duration detectors. Here, we focus on the positional sensitivity of those visual duration detectors by exploring whether the duration aftereffect may be constrained by the visual location of stimuli. We adopted two different paradigms, one that tests for transfer across visual hemifields, and the other that tests for simultaneous selectivity between visual hemifields. By employing these experimental designs, we show that the duration aftereffect strongly transfers across visual hemifields and is not contingent on them. The lack of position specificity suggests that duration detectors in the visual system may operate at a relatively later stage of sensory processing. PMID:26500591

  13. Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

    2016-04-01

    Future water management challenges such as flood risk are highly relevant to climate and land use changes. Climate change is expected to lead to an ongoing intensification of effects on changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration which could exacerbate flooding issues. Land use changes, modifications of agricultural practices and urbanization alter the apportionment of the different hydrological processes at the basin scale and could significantly affect the seasonality of streamflow. At the local scale, the consequences of climate and land use changes on flood occurrence and magnitude are a major issue for the economic development and management policy of basin area. This study apply a methodology for investigating the potential consequences of land use ,as well as precipitation and temperature changes on flood occurrence, duration and magnitude, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and hydrological model parameters. The discharge time series predicted for the future were simulated from a calibrated and validated distributed hydrological model. The model was run from inputs which are -predicted rainfall time series based on scenarios of changes identified from a literature review, -future evapotranspiration rates assessed from temperature changes identified from a literature review -and scenarios of land-use changes The study area, the Fengle River basin (1500 km2), is located in the northeast part of Yangtze basin. The river is one of the main tributaries of the Chao Lake, the fifth largest natural lake of China. The lake catchment is 9130 km2 in area, including the city of Hefei and a large extent of agricultural and rural areas. Many changes are expected in land use and agricultural practices in the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. In the current period heavy storms and floods occur predominantly

  14. NASA long duration balloon capability development project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuchlik, D.; Craddock, W.

    1993-02-01

    The potential benefits of a Long Duration Balloon (LDB) capability have long been recognized and some modest efforts have previously been undertaken by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Scientific Balloon Facility (NSBF), et. al., going back to the late 1960's. In 1988, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) made a decision to dedicate significant resources toward this effort and a technical and management approach was established. The objective of the project is to develop a near global LDB capability for both Antarctic and mid-latitude applications, including the required telecommunications, navigation and positioning, power, data processing and control systems necessary to conduct flights of scientific experiments weighing 1500 pounds or more on conventional balloons for periods of up to three weeks. The first operational use of the new capability is planned in support of Solar Max experiments in Antarctica during the 1991-1992 austral summer. Development of the Antarctica support system configuration has been initiated and the first test flight was conducted from McMurdo Station in December 1989 - January 1990. The progress, status and future plans for development of the new LDB capability will be discussed.

  15. Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report III. Multivariate Predictions of Organizational Performance Across Time.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

    Multiple regression in a double cross-validated design was used to predict two performance measures (total variable expense and absence rate) by multi-month period in five industrial firms. The regressions do cross-validate, and produce multiple coefficients which display both concurrent and predictive effects, peaking 18 months to two years…

  16. Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.

    2012-01-01

    Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this

  17. Duration perception in crossmodally-defined intervals.

    PubMed

    Mayer, Katja M; Di Luca, Massimiliano; Ernst, Marc O

    2014-03-01

    How humans perform duration judgments with multisensory stimuli is an ongoing debate. Here, we investigated how sub-second duration judgments are achieved by asking participants to compare the duration of a continuous sound to the duration of an empty interval in which onset and offset were marked by signals of different modalities using all combinations of visual, auditory and tactile stimuli. The pattern of perceived durations across five stimulus durations (ranging from 100 ms to 900 ms) follows the Vierordt Law. Furthermore, intervals with a sound as onset (audio-visual, audio-tactile) are perceived longer than intervals with a sound as offset. No modality ordering effect is found for visualtactile intervals. To infer whether a single modality-independent or multiple modality-dependent time-keeping mechanisms exist we tested whether perceived duration follows a summative or a multiplicative distortion pattern by fitting a model to all modality combinations and durations. The results confirm that perceived duration depends on sensory latency (summative distortion). Instead, we did not find evidence for multiplicative distortions. The results of the model and the behavioural data support the concept of a single time-keeping mechanism that allows for judgments of durations marked by multisensory stimuli. PMID:23953664

  18. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide fu