Science.gov

Sample records for predicting long-term creep

  1. Predictability of long-term creep and rupture in a nozzle-to-sphere vessel model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corum, J. M.; Battiste, R. L.

    The results of a long-term, high-temperature, failure test of a pressurized nozzle-to-spherical-shell model made of a well-characterized heat of type 304 stainless steel are presented and compared with inelastic deformation and failure predictions. The model, which was tested at 593 C (1100 F), was instrumented with capacitive strain gages in key locations. In addition to recording strains, the surface of the model in the junction region was periodically examined throughout the test for the formation and progression of the creep cracking that ultimately led to a leakage failure. The inelastic analysis predictions were based on guidelines developed and used for design of elevated-temperature nuclear components. Likewise, the failure model used was that upon which the ASME elevated-temperature Code Case N-47 for nuclear components is based. Thus, the reasonable agreement observed between experimental results and predictions adds confidence in the overall design methodology for elevated-temperature components.

  2. Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

    2012-02-01

    The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

  3. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  4. Prediction of the long-term creep compliance of general composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    An accelerated viscoelastic characterization procedure for use with polymer-based composite materials is presented which employs short term test data obtained using unidirectional specimens to predict the long term viscoelastic behavior of general composite laminates. This procedure is here illustrated using the Schapery (1966, 1969) nonlinear theory as the required viscoelastic constitutive model, as well as classical lamination theory for the lamination scheme. The technique is applied to T300/5208 graphite/epoxy.

  5. Accelerated characterization for long-term creep behavior of polymer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Rongguo; Chen, Chaozhong; Li, Qifu; Luo, Xiyan

    2008-11-01

    Based on the observation that high stress results in increasing creep rate of polymeric material, which is analogous to the time-temperature equivalence, where high temperature accelerates the process of creep or relaxation of polymer, the time-stress equivalence is investigated. The changes of intrinsic time in polymer induced by temperature and stress are studied using the free volume theory, and a clock model based on the time-temperature and time-stress equivalence is constructed to predict the long-term creep behavior of polymer. Polypropylene is used for this work. The specimens with shape of dumbbell are formed via injection molding. The short-term creep tests under various stress levels are carried out at ambient temperature. The creep strains of specimens are modeled according to the concept of time-stress equivalence, and the corresponding stress shift factors are calculated. A master creep curve is built by the clock model. The result indicates that the time-stress superposition principle provides an accelerated characterization method in the laboratory. Finally, the time-dependent axial elongations at sustained stress levels, whose values are close to the tensile strength of polypropylene, are measured. The three phases of creep, i.e., the transient, steady state and accelerated creep phases, are studied, and the application and limitation of the time-stress superposition principle are discussed.

  6. Long term property prediction of polyethylene nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaito, Ali Al-Abed

    properties of the nanocomposites was analyzed by examining tensile and creep-recovery behavior of the films at temperatures in the range of 25 to -100°C. Within the measured temperature range, the materials showed a nonlinear temperature dependent response. The time-temperature superposition principle was successfully used to predict the long term behavior of LLDPE nanocomposites.

  7. Influence of long- term aging and superimposed creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gope, N.; Mukherjee, T.; Sarma, D. S.

    1992-08-01

    In an effort to understand the effects of long-term aging at high temperatures and those of the superimposed creep stresses on the microstructural variations in a 0.50Cr-0.50Mo-0.25V steel, the shoulder and gage portions of the specimens subjected to stress rupture tests at 500 °C and 540 °C have been studied by transmission electron microscopy. The optical microstructure, in the normalized and tempered condition, consists of about 95 pct ferrite with the remainder bainite. The ferrite has an extremely fine precipitation of vanadium carbide (VC) as interphase precipitate as well as in random distribution. In the bainitic area, M3C is present in the globular as well as plate-like morphology. Specimens ruptured at 500 °C and 540 °C were selected for transmission electron microscopic study. Both the interphase precipitates and randomly distrib- uted precipitates of VC coarsen considerably due to prolonged exposure at elevated tempera- tures, and ultimately fine M2C platelets nucleate and grow on either side of these precipitates, resulting in the formation of the so-called H-carbides. The superimposed creep stress has a marginal effect on the coarsening kinetics of VC but has enhanced its precipitation along dis- locations and has promoted the formation of H-carbides.

  8. Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreher, P. E.; Lyons, A. T.

    1990-10-01

    Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.

  9. Barrier and long term creep properties of polymer nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranade, Ajit

    The barrier properties and long term strength retention of polymers are of significant importance in a number of applications. Enhanced lifetime food packaging, substrates for OLED based flexible displays and long duration scientific balloons are among them. Higher material requirements in these applications drive the need for an accurate measurement system. Therefore, a new system was engineered with enhanced sensitivity and accuracy. Permeability of polymers is affected by permeant solubility and diffusion. One effort to decrease diffusion rates is via increasing the transport path length. We explore this through dispersion of layered silicates into polymers. Layered silicates with effective aspect ratio of 1000:1 have shown promise in improving the barrier and mechanical properties of polymers. The surface of these inorganic silicates was modified with surfactants to improve the interaction with organic polymers. The micro and nanoscale dispersion of the layered silicates was probed using optical and transmission microscopy as well as x-ray diffraction. Thermal transitions were analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry. Mechanical and permeability measurements were correlated to the dispersion and increased density. The essential structure-property relationships were established by comparing semicrystalline and amorphous polymers. Semicrystalline polymers selected were nylon-6 and polyethylene terephthalate. The amorphous polymer was polyethylene terphthalate-glycol. Densification due to the layered silicate in both semicrystalline and amorphous polymers was associated with significant impact on barrier and long term creep behavior. The inferences were confirmed by investigating a semi-crystalline polymer---polyethylene---above and below the glass transition. The results show that the layered silicate influences the amorphous segments in polymers and barrier properties are affected by synergistic influences of densification and uniform dispersion of the

  10. Contribution of recovery mechanisms of microstructure during long-term creep of Gr.91 steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghassemi-Armaki, H.; Chen, R. P.; Maruyama, K.; Igarashi, M.

    2013-02-01

    Creep rupture life and microstructural degradation have been studied in two heats of Gr.91 steels. The coarsening of subgrains and precipitates, mainly M23C6 and MX, has been evaluated during static aging and creep. Hardness of head (static aging) and gauge (creep) portions of crept samples were measured to know their relation with microstructural degradation during long-term exposure. The correlation between subgrain size and spacing of precipitates and hardness has been equated. As an example, there is a close correlation between hardness value and inverse subgrains size in Gr.91 steels, regardless of aging or creep conditions. The appearance of three recovery mechanisms was found during long-term creep, namely: strain-induced recovery, pure static recovery and strain-assisted static recovery. By equated correlations between subgrain size, precipitates and hardness, the contribution of three recovery mechanisms to subgrain coarsening and hardness drop were calculated for two creep conditions at 700 °C in long-term creep region, where breakdown of creep strength has happen. The calculated data accord well with experimental data obtained from aged and crept samples. The contribution of static recovery to the subgrain coarsening and consequent hardness drop during long-term creep increases with increasing creep time. The significant contribution of both static recovery mechanisms can result in the breakdown of creep strength in long-term creep region.

  11. Long-Term Creep and Creep Rupture Behavior of Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Mach, A.; Jeelani, S.; Verrilli, Michael J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tensile creep behavior of SiC/SiNC ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures and at various stress levels have been investigated for turbine engine applications. The objective of this research is to present creep behavior of SiC/SiCN composites at stress levels above and below the monotonic proportional limit strength and predict the life at creep rupture conditions. Tensile creep-rupture tests were performed on an Instron 8502 servohydraulic testing machine at constant load conditions up to a temperature limit of 1000 C. Individual creep curves indicate three stages such as primary, secondary, and tertiary. The creep rate increased linearly at an early stage and then gradually became exponential at higher strains. The stress exponent and activation energy were also obtained at 700 and 1000 C. The specimen lifetime was observed to be 55 hrs at 121 MPa and at 700 C. The life span reduced to 35 hrs at 143 MPa and at 1000 C. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed significant changes in the crystalline phases and creep damage development. Creep failures were accompanied by extensive fiber pullout, matrix cracking, and debonding along with fiber fracture. The creep data was applied to Time-Temperature-Stress superposition model and the Manson-Haferd parametric model for long-time life prediction.

  12. Prediction of long-term failure in Kevlar 49 composites

    SciTech Connect

    Gerstle, F.P. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Creep rupture data in Kevlar 49 epoxy usually exhibit considerable scatter: the coefficient of variation (CV) about the mean failure time at a given stress exceeds 100%. Quasi-static strength data, in contrast, shows little scatter: <4% CV for pressure vessels and <10% for impregnated strands. In this paper analysis of existing creep rupture data on Kevlar epoxy vessels at four storage pressures has produced an interesting and useful result. It was found that a significant portion of the scatter in failure times for pressure vessels is due to spool-to-spool variation in the eight spools of Kevlar fibers used to wind the vessels. The order rank of mean times to failure was consistent over a pressure range from 3400 to 4300 psi, 68 to 86% of short term burst. Also, the coefficient of variation about the mean failure time for each spool was less than that for the total sample. The statistical inference that the sample is nonhomogeneous was supported by a nonparametric check using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and by a parametric analysis of variance. The order rank found in long-term tests did not unequivocally agree with static strength ranks; several spool sets were distinctly high or low. The implication is that, while static strengths are not valid predictors of long-term behavior, short term creep rupture tests at high stress definitely are. The material difference which causes the spool-to-spool variations has not yet been identified for all eight spools. However, it appears that Kevlar behavior at lower pressures may be predicted through the use of curves fitted to the data for each spool. A power law relating failure time to pressure, t = t/sub 0/(p/p/sub 0/)/sup m/, was found to fit the data reasonably well. The implication is that, both in composite vessel design and in creep rupture experiments, the pressure (or stress) level be carefully controlled.

  13. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. PMID:11607658

  14. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  15. Long-term lifetime prediction for RF-MEMS switches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulloni, V.; Barbato, M.; Meneghesso, G.

    2016-07-01

    Time to failure estimations of RF-MEMS (radio-frequency microelectromechanical system) switches under prolonged actuation is particularly interesting for satellite applications, where the devices have to retain their functionality for years. At present, a well-assessed methodology to predict RF-MEMS lifetime is still lacking, probably because, in the case of MEMS, failure may originate from either electrical or mechanical sources. Temperature is the most common failure accelerating factor, but it accelerates all failure mechanisms at the same time. In this paper, we take into account the effect of temperature on three different failure mechanisms, namely charge trapping, mechanical creep, and contact degradation. Short-term and long-term continuous actuation measurements for an ohmic clamped–clamped switch are reported and analyzed, showing that failure is strongly accelerated by temperature in the range of temperatures investigated. The maximum temperature exploitable is, however, quite low, around 75 °C, because of structural modifications due to internal stress variations and buckling. Based on the experimental data, a prediction model is presented and discussed. While failure at 55 °C has been measured after a few days, the extrapolated lifetimes at 25 °C are around five years. Contact deterioration has been found to be the reason of failure, but the switch fails only when the spring constant has been sufficiently lowered by mechanical creep.

  16. Long-term evolution is surprisingly predictable in lattice proteins

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, Michael E.; Moudgil, Arnav; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    It has long been debated whether natural selection acts primarily upon individual organisms, or whether it also commonly acts upon higher-level entities such as lineages. Two arguments against the effectiveness of long-term selection on lineages have been (i) that long-term evolutionary outcomes will not be sufficiently predictable to support a meaningful long-term fitness and (ii) that short-term selection on organisms will almost always overpower long-term selection. Here, we use a computational model of protein folding and binding called ‘lattice proteins’. We quantify the long-term evolutionary success of lineages with two metrics called the k-fitness and k-survivability. We show that long-term outcomes are surprisingly predictable in this model: only a small fraction of the possible outcomes are ever realized in multiple replicates. Furthermore, the long-term fitness of a lineage depends only partly on its short-term fitness; other factors are also important, including the ‘evolvability’ of a lineage—its capacity to produce adaptive variation. In a system with a distinct short-term and long-term fitness, evolution need not be ‘short-sighted’: lineages may be selected for their long-term properties, sometimes in opposition to short-term selection. Similar evolutionary basins of attraction have been observed in vivo, suggesting that natural biological lineages will also have a predictive long-term fitness. PMID:23466559

  17. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  18. Long term prediction of flood occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; José Polo, María

    2016-05-01

    How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

  19. Revised long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Galehouse, Jon S.

    1997-01-01

    Although the Hayward fault is a source of major earthquakes, it also creeps or slips aseismically, and has done so steadily for several decades (certainly since 1921 and probably since 1869). Most of the fault creeps between 3 and 6 mm/yr, except for a 4- to 6-km-long segment near its south end that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. We present results of our recent surveys to recover angles and deflection lines established across the fault in the 1960s and 1970s, but unmonitored since. We have added data from more offset cultural features to the long-term creep rate data set and made substantial improvements to the analytical method used to compute offsets. The revised creep rate values improve our knowledge of spatial and temporal variation along the fault. The more accurate revised data has reduced the estimate of the average creep rate along most of the fault from 5.1 mm/yr to 4.6 mm/yr. Creep rates in the 9 mm/yr section near the south end have remained the same.

  20. Effect of Creep of Ferritic Interconnect on Long-Term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-08-01

    High-temperature ferritic alloys are potential candidates as interconnect (IC) materials and spacers due to their low cost and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) compatibility with other components for most of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) . However, creep deformation becomes relevant for a material when the operating temperature exceeds or even is less than half of its melting temperature (in degrees of Kelvin). The operating temperatures for most of the SOFCs under development are around 1,073 K. With around 1,800 K of the melting temperature for most stainless steel, possible creep deformation of ferritic IC under the typical cell operating temperature should not be neglected. In this paper, the effects of IC creep behavior on stack geometry change and the stress redistribution of different cell components are predicted and summarized. The goal of the study is to investigate the performance of the fuel cell stack by obtaining the changes in fuel- and air-channel geometry due to creep of the ferritic stainless steel IC, therefore indicating possible changes in SOFC performance under long-term operations. The ferritic IC creep model was incorporated into software SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC, and finite element analyses were performed to quantify the deformed configuration of the SOFC stack under the long-term steady-state operating temperature. It was found that the creep behavior of the ferritic stainless steel IC contributes to narrowing of both the fuel- and the air-flow channels. In addition, stress re-distribution of the cell components suggests the need for a compliant sealing material that also relaxes at operating temperature.

  1. Is Current Hydrogeologic Research Addressing Long-TermPredictions?

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2004-09-10

    Hydrogeology is a field closely related to the needs of society. Many problems of current national and local interest require predictions of hydrogeological system behavior, and, in a number of important cases, the period of prediction is tens to hundreds of thousands of years. It is argued that the demand for such long-term hydrogeological predictions casts a new light on the future needs of hydrogeological research. Key scientific issues are no longer concerned only with simple processes or narrowly focused modeling or testing methods, but also with assessment of prediction uncertainties and confidence, couplings among multiple physico-chemical processes occurring simultaneously at a site, and the interplay between site characterization and predictive modeling. These considerations also have significant implications for hydrogeological education. With this view, it is asserted that hydrogeological directions and education need to be reexamined and possibly refocused to address specific needs for long-term predictions.

  2. Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

    1994-01-01

    For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

  3. Long-term monitoring of creep rate along the Hayward fault and evidence for a lasting creep response to 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.; Simpson, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We present results from over 30 yr of precise surveys of creep along the Hayward fault. Along most of the fault, spatial variability in long-term creep rates is well determined by these data and can help constrain 3D-models of the depth of the creeping zone. However, creep at the south end of the fault stopped completely for more than 6 years after the M7 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (LPEQ), perhaps delayed by stress drop imposed by this event. With a decade of detailed data before LPEQ and a decade after it, we report that creep response to that event does indeed indicate the expected deficit in creep.

  4. Long-term deflections of reinforced concrete elements: accuracy analysis of predictions by different methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gribniak, Viktor; Bacinskas, Darius; Kacianauskas, Rimantas; Kaklauskas, Gintaris; Torres, Lluis

    2013-08-01

    Long-term deflection response of reinforced concrete flexural members is influenced by the interaction of complex physical phenomena, such as concrete creep, shrinkage and cracking, which makes their prediction difficult. A number of approaches are proposed by design codes with different degrees of simplification and accuracy. This paper statistically investigates accuracy of long-term deflection predictions made by some of the most widely used design codes ( Eurocode 2, ACI 318, ACI 435, and the new Russian code SP 52-101) and a numerical technique proposed by the authors. The accuracy is analyzed using test data of 322 reinforced concrete members from 27 test programs reported in the literature. The predictions of each technique are discussed, and a comparative analysis is made showing the influence of different parameters, such as sustained loading duration, compressive strength of concrete, loading intensity and reinforcement ratio, on the prediction accuracy.

  5. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    We report here a constitutive model for predicting long-term creep strain evolution in ’ strengthened Ni-base superalloys. Dislocation climb-bypassing ’, typical in intermediate ’ volume fraction (~20%) alloys, is considered as the primary deformation mechanism. Dislocation shearing ’ to anti-phase boundary (APB) faults and diffusional creep are also considered for high-stress and high-temperature low-stress conditions, respectively. Additional damage mechanism is taken into account for rapid increase in tertiary creep strain. The model has been applied to Alloy 282, and calibrated in a temperature range of 1375-1450˚F, and stress range of 15-45ksi. The model parameters and a MATLAB code are provided. This report is prepared by Monica Soare and Chen Shen at GE Global Research. Technical discussions with Dr. Vito Cedro are greatly appreciated. This work was supported by DOE program DE-FE0005859

  6. The long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cefola, P. J.; Long, A. C.; Holloway, G., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    Survey of averaging and multirevolution methods for long-term orbit prediction. A technical approach with the following features is recommended: (1) averaged variation-of-parameter equations, (2) analytical expressions for oblateness and third-body effects, (3) definite integrals for atmospheric drag and lunar effects (for long-period orbits), (4) nonsingular equinoctial element formulation, (5) multistep numerical integration processes, and (6) precise osculating-to-mean element transformation. Several orbital predictions illustrate the contribution of this technical approach to overall accuracy and efficiency. Future development of the analytical averaging method in nonsingular coordinates by automated manipulation of literal series is discussed.

  7. CREEP-2: Long-term time-dependent rock deformation in a deep-sea observatory.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boon, Steve; Meredith, Philip; Heap, Michael; Berenzoli, Laura; Favali, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    Earthquake rupture and volcanic eruptions are the most spectacular manifestations of dynamic failure of a critically stressed crust. But these are actually rather rare events, and most of the crust spends most of its time in a highly-stressed but sub-critical state. Below a few hundred metres, the crust is saturated, and water-rock chemical reactions lead to time-dependent deformation that allows rocks to fail over extended periods of time at stresses far below their short-term strength by the mechanism of stress corrosion crack growth. This process is highly non-linear and a change in applied stress of around 5% can lead to a change in the time-to-failure of more than an order of magnitude. Theoretical calculations based on reaction rate theory suggest that such cracking may occur down to stresses as low as 20% of the rock strength, implying that time-dependent cracking will be an important deformation mechanism over geological time and at typical tectonic strain rates. A number of theoretical models have been proposed to explain this behaviour. However, it is currently not possible to discriminate between these competing models due to the relatively narrow bandwidth of strain rates that are practicably achievable in conventional laboratory experiments. Ultra-long-term experiments at very low strain rates are clearly essential to address this problem. We have therefore used the stability of the deep-sea environment to conduct ultra-long-term experiments. At depth, the temperature remains constant throughout the year and water pressure also remains essentially constant, especially in the Ionian Sea where the tidal range is minimal. We have successfully conducted a pilot experiment (CREEP-1) in which we used the constant sea-water pressure at depth to provide both a constant confining pressure and a constant deforming stress for our rock samples. Building on that success, we are now building a multi-sample deformation observatory (CREEP-2) to be deployed at

  8. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    PubMed

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically. PMID:24365536

  9. Long-term weather predictability: Ural case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of the state-of-the-art long-term meteorological forecast (at the seasonal level) is still low. Here it is presented approach (RAMES method) realizing different forecasting methodology. It provides prediction horizon of up to 19-22 years under equal probabilities of determination of parameters in every analyzed period [1]. Basic statements of the method are the following. 1. Long-term forecast on the basis of numerical modeling of the global meteorological process is principally impossible. Extension of long-term prediction horizon could be obtained only by the revealing and using a periodicity of meteorological situations at one point of observation. 2. Conventional calendar is unsuitable for generalization of meteorological data and revealing of cyclicity of meteorological processes. RAMES method uses natural time intervals: one day, synodic month and one year. It was developed a set of special calendars using these natural periods and the Metonic cycle. 3. Long-term time series of meteorological data is not a uniform universal set, it is a sequence of 28 universal sets appropriately superseding each other in time. The specifics of the method are: 1. Usage of the original research toolkit consisting of - a set of calendars based on the Metonic cycle; - a set of charts (coordinate systems) for the construction of sequence diagrams (of daily variability of a meteorological parameter during the analyzed year; of daily variability of a meteorological parameter using long-term dynamical time series of periods-analogues; of monthly and yearly variability of accumulated value of meteorological parameter). 2. Identification and usage of new virtual meteorological objects having several degrees of generalization appropriately located in the used coordinate systems. 3. All calculations are integrated into the single technological scheme providing comparison and mutual verification of calculation results. During the prolonged testing in the Ural region, it was

  10. Long-term performance of ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures: Modelling of creep and creep rupture

    SciTech Connect

    Curtin, W.A.; Fabeny, B.; Ibnabdeljalil, M.; Iyengar, N.; Reifsnider, K.L.

    1996-07-31

    The models developed, contain explicit dependences on constituent material properties and their changes with time, so that composite performance can be predicted. Three critical processes in ceramic composites at elevated temperatures have been modeled: (1) creep deformation of composite vs stress and time-dependent creep of fibers and matrix, and failure of these components; (2) creep deformation of ``interface`` around broken fibers; and (3) lifetime of the composite under conditions of fiber strength loss over time at temperature. In (1), general evolution formulas are derived for relaxation time of matrix stresses and steady-state creep rate of composite; the model is tested against recent data on Ti-MMCs. Calculations on a composite of Hi-Nicalon fibers in a melt-infiltrated SiC matrix are presented. In (2), numerical simulations of composite failure were made to map out time-to-failure vs applied load for several sets of material parameters. In (3), simple approximate relations are obtained between fiber life and composite life that should be useful for fiber developers and testers. Strength degradation data on Hi-Nicalon fibers is used to assess composite lifetime vs fiber lifetime for Hi-Nicalon fiber composites.

  11. Prediction of long-term aging of cellular plastics

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Y.; Kokko, E.

    1995-09-01

    Chlorofluorocarbon(CFC)-based cellular plastics are facing the challenge of environmental protection. The cellular plastic industry has been looking for new blowing agents as alternatives for CFCs since the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987. The prediction of long-term thermal performance of newly developed cellular plastics thus becomes apparent. In this paper, the model ACP aging of cellular plastic is introduced. This model was originally developed for evaluating the thermal performance of carbon dioxide, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-22, n-Pentane, neo-Pentane and cyclo-Pentane. In comparison with short-term measurements, the ACP program now is able to predict the aging performance of cellular plastics is to combine the short-term measurements and model simulation. 21 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Effects of long-term thermal aging on the tensile and creep properties of commercially heat-treated alloy 718

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, M.K.

    1984-01-01

    Alloy 718 is a structure material widely used in elevated-temperature applications. In particular, it was extensively used in the design of the upper internal system and control rod drive line of the proposed Clinch River Breeder Reactor. Its popularity is due to several excellent behavioral features, including high creep and creep-rupture strength, good oxidation resistance, and exceptional high-cycle fatigue strength. However, alloy 718 is extremely complex, and its microstructure can be significantly modified by thermal treatment. The stability of the alloy in long-term elevated-temperature service is therefore a substantial concern in any such application. This report presents tensile and creep data obtained on three heats of alloy 718 after thermal aging for up to 27,000 h from 593 to 76{degree}C. Implications of these results in terms of long-term stability of the alloy are discussed. 5 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKinley, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

  14. Microstructural changes during long-term tension creep of two-phase {gamma}-titanium aluminide alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Oehring, M.; Appel, F.; Wagner, R.; Ennis, P.J.

    1997-12-31

    Long-term tension creep tests were performed on a Ti-48 at.% Al-2 at.% Cr alloy in order to assess the material behavior under the intended service conditions for structural parts in turbine engines. Deformation processes and microstructural changes were investigated by TEM on a specimen loaded to 140 MPa for 5,988 h at 700 C. At lamellar boundaries the emission of interfacial dislocations was observed and is thought to contribute significantly to the high primary creep rate of the material. Under the creep conditions gliding dislocations apparently become locked by the heterogeneous formation of precipitates along their cores. Lamellar interfaces revealed ledges which indicates that they migrate during creep.

  15. Long-term predictions of minewater geothermal systems heat resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harcout-Menou, Virginie; de ridder, fjo; laenen, ben; ferket, helga

    2014-05-01

    Abandoned underground mines usually flood due to the natural rise of the water table. In most cases the process is relatively slow giving the mine water time to equilibrate thermally with the the surrounding rock massif. Typical mine water temperature is too low to be used for direct heating, but is well suited to be combined with heat pumps. For example, heat extracted from the mine can be used during winter for space heating, while the process could be reversed during summer to provide space cooling. Altough not yet widely spread, the use of low temperature geothermal energy from abandoned mines has already been implemented in the Netherlands, Spain, USA, Germany and the UK. Reliable reservoir modelling is crucial to predict how geothermal minewater systems will react to predefined exploitation schemes and to define the energy potential and development strategy of a large-scale geothermal - cold/heat storage mine water systems. However, most numerical reservoir modelling software are developed for typical environments, such as porous media (a.o. many codes developed for petroleum reservoirs or groundwater formations) and cannot be applied to mine systems. Indeed, mines are atypical environments that encompass different types of flow, namely porous media flow, fracture flow and open pipe flow usually described with different modelling codes. Ideally, 3D models accounting for the subsurface geometry, geology, hydrogeology, thermal aspects and flooding history of the mine as well as long-term effects of heat extraction should be used. A new modelling approach is proposed here to predict the long-term behaviour of Minewater geothermal systems in a reactive and reliable manner. The simulation method integrates concepts for heat and mass transport through various media (e.g., back-filled areas, fractured rock, fault zones). As a base, the standard software EPANET2 (Rossman 1999; 2000) was used. Additional equations for describing heat flow through the mine (both

  16. Creep Behavior of Glass/Ceramic Sealant and its Effect on Long-term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Koeppel, Brian J.; Stephens, Elizabeth V.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2009-10-14

    The creep behavior of glass or glass-ceramic sealant materials used in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) becomes relevant under SOFC operating temperatures. In this paper, the creep of glass-ceramic sealants was experimentally examined, and a standard linear solid model was applied to capture the creep behavior of glass ceramic sealant materials developed for planar SOFCs at high temperatures. The parameters of this model were determined based on the creep test results. Furthermore, the creep model was incorporated into finite-element software programs SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for multi-physics simulation of SOFCs. The effect of creep of glass ceramic sealant materials on the long-term performance of SOFC stacks was investigated by studying the stability of the flow channels and the stress redistribution in the glass seal and on the various interfaces of the glass seal with other layers. Finite element analyses were performed to quantify the stresses in various parts. The stresses in glass seals were released because of creep behavior during operations.

  17. Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery.

    PubMed

    Skeffington, Richard A; Cosby, B Jack; Whitehead, Paul G

    2016-10-15

    This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future. PMID:27304372

  18. Long-Term Creep of a Thin-Walled Inconel 718 Stirling Power-Convertor Heater Head Assessed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, Randy R.

    2002-01-01

    The Department of Energy and NASA have identified Stirling power convertors as candidate power supply systems for long-duration, deep-space science missions. A key element for qualifying the flight hardware is a long-term durability assessment for critical hot section components of the power convertor. One such critical component is the power convertor heater head. The heater head is a high-temperature pressure vessel that transfers heat to the working gas medium of the convertor, which is typically helium. An efficient heater head design is the result of balancing the divergent requirements of thin walls for increased heat transfer versus thick walls to lower the wall stresses and thus improve creep resistance and durability. In the current design, the heater head is fabricated from the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV). Although IN 718 is a mature alloy system (patented in 1962), there is little long-term (>50,000-hr) creep data available for thin-specimen geometries. Since thin-section properties tend to be inferior to thicker samples, it is necessary to generate creep data using specimens with the same geometry as the actual flight hardware. Therefore, one facet of the overall durability assessment program involves generating relatively short-term creep data using thin specimens at the design temperature of 649 C (1200 F).

  19. Sustainable Approach of Reusing Open Dumping Area by Predicting Long-Term Settlement of Waste Soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulaimi Shariffuddin, Ahmad; Irfah Mohd Pauzi, Nur; Hao, Goh Yu

    2016-03-01

    Sustainable approach towards an open dumping area can be determined by predicting the long-term settlement of waste soil. To predict the settlement that happens in closed open dumping area in Bukit Palong, Lukut in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, the Power Creep Function is used. The waste soil were collected to determine their basic geotechnical properties by doing sieve analysis, Atterberg Limit, consolidation, compaction and direct shear. From the geotechnical properties of the waste soil, the Power Creep Function are be used to determine the long-term settlement of the reused dumping area. There are three case studies and one of the parameters is M’ or reference compressibility that have the value from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa. There is also N’ or rate of compression that have value from 0.50 to 0.67. In Case 1, M’ and N’ are constant which are 5.8 × 10-5 kPa and 0.67 respectively. Case 2 have the value of M’ increased from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa with respect to age while N’ constant at 0.5. Lastly the Case 3 shows the M’ is constant at 1.6 × 10-5 kPa while the N’ is increased ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 with respect to age. The area will reach a stable condition which means the settlement has stabilized after 50 years. From the three case studies, the analysis show that the settlement does not exceed the allowable settlement which is 0.05m every year.

  20. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  1. Long-term creep of Hanford concrete at 250 deg F and 350 deg F

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillen, M.

    1980-10-01

    Test results described cover the creep behavior of Hanford concretes at elevated temperatures. Two each of 6 by 12 in. concrete cylinders were subjected to static compressive loads of 500 psi at 350 F and 1500 psi at 250 F and 350 F. Test cylinders were cast with materials and mix designs similar to those used in Hanford concrete structures. Effects of load and temperature on deformation of Hanford concrete are discussed. Increased static load reduced the amount of thermal strain when cylinders were heated above ambient. At 350 F, the magnitude of creep strain of cylinders increased with increased static load. At a test load of 1500 psi, magnitude of creep strain increased with increased temperature. Creep data were satisfactorily modeled with an expression of the form creep strain = A log10 (t) + B, where creep strain is in millionths, and t is time at test temperature, in days. Values for the coefficient, A, varied from 255.6 to 286.9. Magnitude of the constant B, ranged from 182.1 to 718.6.

  2. The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2013-01-01

    Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

  3. Long term prediction and the SSC (Superconducting Super Collider)

    SciTech Connect

    Talman, R.

    1990-09-01

    Successful operation of the Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) will depend on the stable circulation of particles for tens of millions of turns around the rings, in the presence of small nonlinear deflecting fields. One design challenge is to set specifications for the maximum allowable field imperfections of this sort, consistent with the required. stability. Another challenge is to plan for the inclusion of field compensating elements that will ameliorate the effects of errors. The tools'' available for projecting the long term stability are theoretical, both analytic and numerical, and experimental. These aspects are reviewed. 19 refs.

  4. Long-term Observation of Soil Creep Activity around a Landslide Scar

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rate of sediment infilling into landslide scars by soil creep is needed to estimate the timing of subsequent landslide activity at a particular site. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of its activity around the landslide scar is scarce. Additionally, there are few...

  5. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  6. A new indirect multi-step-ahead prediction model for a long-term hydrologic prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chun-Tian; Xie, Jing-Xin; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Layeghifard, Mehdi

    2008-10-01

    SummaryA dependable long-term hydrologic prediction is essential to planning, designing and management activities of water resources. A three-stage indirect multi-step-ahead prediction model, which combines dynamic spline interpolation into multilayer adaptive time-delay neural network (ATNN), is proposed in this study for the long term hydrologic prediction. In the first two stages, a group of spline interpolation and dynamic extraction units are utilized to amplify the effect of observations in order to decrease the errors accumulation and propagation caused by the previous prediction. In the last step, variable time delays and weights are dynamically regulated by ATNN and the output of ATNN can be obtained as a multi-step-ahead prediction. We use two examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. One example is the sunspots time series that is a well-known nonlinear and non-Gaussian benchmark time series and is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of nonlinear models. Another example is a case study of a long-term hydrologic prediction which uses the monthly discharges data from the Manwan Hydropower Plant in Yunnan Province of China. Application results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

  7. Long-term predictions relating to environment sensitive cracking

    SciTech Connect

    Parkins, R.N.

    1993-12-31

    Consideration is given to the environmental requirements of environment sensitive cracking (ESC) of ferritic steels, involving hydrogen-induced or dissolution-related mechanisms of cracking. Pitting, with associated local pH changes, may result in hydrogen-induced cracking of simple ferritic steels, as had been observed with high pressure gas pipelines in contact with ground waters, and may constitute a greater potential failure mechanism for waste containers than dissolution-related cracking with its requirement of relatively concentrate solutions. However, the stochastic nature of pit initiation, together with the distributions of crack nucleation and growth rates, suggest that a probabilistic, as opposed to a purely deterministic, approach will need to be applied to life prediction estimates for waste containers.

  8. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  9. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  10. The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

  11. Microcomputer programs for the evaluation of predictable long-term exposure.

    PubMed

    Re, M

    1985-07-01

    Some methods proposed for evaluation of predictable long-term exposure by statistical treatment of workshift exposure values are considered. Predictable long-term exposure is a useful parameter for risk assessment procedures, as it allows the evaluation of workplace hazards by taking into account interday variability of exposure to air contaminants. Statistical calculations required for evaluating predictable long-term exposure may be performed easily by hand-held programmable calculators. The programs reported here are for use with a Texas Instruments TI-59 hand-held programmable calculator equipped with a PC-100 C thermal printer. They are designed for users inexperienced in programming, since an interactive approach has been adopted that helps communication between user and computer. PMID:3880190

  12. Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

  13. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  14. Predicting agricultural management influence on long-term soil organic carbon dynamics: implications for biofuel production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations,...

  15. Long-Term Collision Risk Prediction for Low Earth Orbit Satellite Constellations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, R.; Stokes, P. H.; Wilkinson, J. E.; Swinerd, G. G.

    2000-07-01

    In the light of recent changes to planned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation designs and enhancements made to the DERA IDES model, we have conducted a new study on long-term debris environment evolution. This includes the collision interactions of constellation systems with the orbital debris environment over the next 50 years. In this new study, we use the IDES model to simulate long-term evolution in four 'business as usual' future traffic scenarios, which differ by the presence and absence of foreseen satellite constellation traffic and debris mitigation measures. The IDES model is capable of taking high spatial resolution snapshots of the debris flux environment at regular time intervals. By accessing these snapshots, the IDES model is able to predict the long-term variation of debris flux incident on a specific target orbit. This technique is harnessed to predict the average debris flux trends for a typical LEO constellation satellite. Furthermore, we estimate the average debris-induced satellite failure rates for a whole constellation system. Finally, we discuss our new findings on the long-term effects of constellations on the debris environment and vice versa.

  16. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  17. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Goldsmith, Yulia; Chan, Jacqueline; Iskandir, Marina; Gulkarov, Iosif; Tortolani, Anthony; Brener, Sorin J.; Sacchi, Terrence J.; Heitner, John F.

    2015-01-01

    Background The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF), independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery. Methods From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female) were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered <35% and <45%, respectively. Elective primary procedures include CABG (56%) and valve (44%). Thirty-day outcomes were perioperative complications, length of stay, cardiac re-hospitalizations and early mortaility; long-term (> 30 days) outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months. Findings Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25%) and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50%) (p<0.001). Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30%) and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59%) (p<0.001). Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05). Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03). Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization. Conclusion Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures. PMID:26197273

  18. Predictive Factors Affecting Long-Term Outcome of Unilateral Lateral Rectus Recession

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Hee Kyung; Kim, Mi-Jin; Hwang, Jeong-Min

    2015-01-01

    Background There are few long-term outcome reports of unilateral lateral rectus (LR) recession for exotropia including a large number of subjects. Previous reports on unilateral LR recession commonly show extremely low rates of initial overcorrection and large exodrifts after surgery suggesting that the surgical dose may be increased. However, little is known of the long-term outcome of a large unilateral LR recession for exotropia. Objectives To determine long-term outcomes and predictive factors of recurrence after a large unilateral LR recession in patients with exotropia. Data Extraction Retrospective analysis was performed on 92 patients aged 3 to 17 years who underwent 10 mm unilateral LR recession for exotropia of ≤ 25 prism diopters (Δ) with prism and alternate cover testing and were followed up for more than 2 years after surgery. Final success rates within 10Δ of exophoria/tropia and 5Δ of esophoria/tropia at distance in the primary position, improvement in stereopsis and the predictive factors for recurrence were evaluated. Results At 24 months after surgery, 54% of patients had ocular alignment meeting the defined criteria of success, 45% had recurrence and 1% had overcorrection. After a mean follow-up of 39 months, 36% showed success, 63% showed recurrence and 1% resulted in overcorrection. The average time of recurrence was 23.4±14.7 months (range, 1–60 months) and the rate of recurrence per person-year was 23% after unilateral LR recession. Predictive factors of recurrence were a larger preoperative near angle of deviation (>16Δ) and larger initial postoperative exodeviation (>5Δ) at distance. Conclusions Long-term outcome of unilateral LR recession for exotropia showed low success rates with high recurrence, thus should be reserved for patients with a small preoperative near angle of exodeviation. PMID:26418819

  19. Long-term rates and the depth extent of fault creep along the San Andreas Fault system in northern California from alinement arrays and GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.; McFarland, F. S.; Simpson, R. W.; Caskey, J.

    2013-12-01

    The dextral San Andreas Fault system (SAFS) in northern California comprises five branches that exhibit considerable variation in the amount and spatial extent of aseismic release or creep. We estimate the depth extent of creep with a forward elastic model using the algorithms of Okada (1992) and boundary value dislocation solutions for creep rate and depth of creeping patches. For purposes of analysis we label branches, from west to east: A (San Gregorio), B (San Andreas), C (Calaveras-Hayward-Rodgers Creek-Maacama), D (Northern Calaveras-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs) and E (Greenville. Since the 1960s alinement arrays have provided one of the most accurate means to estimate the long-term creep rate and these rates have been reasonably well determined for much of the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) southward. Over the past decade we have been installing alinement arrays along the more remote faults, especially northward of the SFBA, to monitor the extent of creep on branches C and D. We currently monitor about 80 such arrays throughout the northern SAFS. To analyze the depth extent of creep over the entire system, we model 30 fault sections on these five branches, delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We have removed any significant transient rate changes imposed by large regional earthquakes. We use crustal velocities determined for global-positioning station pairs of survey mode and continuous (SGPS, CGPS or mixed pairs) that are located near each fault to provide additional constraint on average creep rates. We estimate the mean depth of creep from the mean observed surface creep rate for each section and the rate uncertainty allows estimation of a depth uncertainty. Uncertainties are generally much higher where only five years or less of alinement array data are available, but in some cases the addition of CGPS or multiple SGPS station pairs has been essential for a more complete evaluation of

  20. Common Factors Predicting Long-term Changes in Multiple Health Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    BLISSMER, BRYAN; PROCHASKA, JAMES O.; VELICER, WAYNE F.; REDDING, COLLEEN A.; ROSSI, JOSEPH S.; GREENE, GEOFFREY W.; PAIVA, ANDREA; ROBBINS, MARK

    2010-01-01

    This study was designed to assess if there are consistent treatment, stage, severity, effort and demographic effects which predict long-term changes across the multiple behaviors of smoking, diet and sun exposure. A secondary data analysis integrated data from four studies on smoking cessation (N = 3927), three studies on diet (N = 4824) and four studies on sun exposure (N = 6465). Across all three behaviors, behavior change at 24 months was related to treatment, stage of change, problem severity and effort effects measured at baseline. There were no consistent demographic effects. Across multiple behaviors, long-term behavior changes are consistently related to four effects that are dynamic and open to change. Behavior changes were not consistently related to static demographic variables. Future intervention research can target the four effects to determine if breakthroughs can be produced in changing single and multiple behaviors. PMID:20207664

  1. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  2. Deficit in long-term synaptic plasticity is rescued by a computationally predicted stimulus protocol.

    PubMed

    Liu, Rong-Yu; Zhang, Yili; Baxter, Douglas A; Smolen, Paul; Cleary, Leonard J; Byrne, John H

    2013-04-17

    Mutations in the gene encoding CREB-binding protein (CBP) cause deficits in long-term plasticity, learning, and memory. Here, long-term synaptic facilitation (LTF) at Aplysia sensorimotor synapses in cell culture was used as a model system to investigate methods for overcoming deficits in LTF produced by a CBP knockdown. Injecting CBP-siRNA into individual sensory neurons reduced CBP levels and impaired LTF produced by a standard protocol of five 5-min pulses of serotonin (5-HT) delivered at 20 min interstimulus intervals. A computational model, which simulated molecular processes underlying LTF induction, predicted a rescue protocol of five pulses of 5-HT at non-uniform interstimulus intervals that overcame the consequences of reduced CBP and restored LTF. These results suggest that complementary empirical and computational studies can identify methods for ameliorating impairments of learning attributable to molecular lesions. PMID:23595752

  3. Review of uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions of space debris evolutionary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolado-Perez, J. C.; Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

    2015-08-01

    Since the launch of Sputnik-I in 1957, the amount of space debris in Earth's orbit has increased continuously. Historically, besides abandoned intact objects (spacecraft and orbital stages), the primary sources of space debris in Earth's orbit were (i) accidental and intentional break-ups which produced long-lasting debris and (ii) debris released intentionally during the operation of launch vehicle orbital stages and spacecraft. In the future, fragments generated by collisions are expected to become a significant source as well. In this context, and from a purely mathematical point of view, the orbital debris population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should be intrinsically unstable, due to the physics of mutual collisions and the relative ineffectiveness of natural sink mechanisms above~700 km. Therefore, the real question should not be "if", but "when" the exponential growth of the space debris population is supposed to start. From a practical point of view, and in order to answer the previous question, since the end of the 1980's several sophisticated long-term debris evolutionary models have been developed. Unfortunately, the predictions performed with such models, in particular beyond a few decades, are affected by considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainty comes from a relative important number of variables that being either under the partial control or completely out of the control of modellers, introduce a variability on the long-term simulation of the space debris population which cannot be captured with standard Monte Carlo statistics. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss many of the uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions done with evolutionary models, in order to serve as a roadmap for the uncertainty and the statistical robustness analysis of the long-term evolution of the space debris population.

  4. Results of studying creep and long-term strength of metals at the Institute of Mechanics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University (To Yu. N. Rabotnov's Anniversary)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lokoshchenko, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Basic results of experimental and theoretical research of creep processes and long-term strength of metals obtained by researchers of the Institute of Mechanics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University are presented. These results further develop and refine the kinetic theory of creep and long-duration strength proposed by Yu. N. Rabotnov. Some problems arising in formulating various types of kinetic equations and describing experimental data for materials that can be considered as statically homogeneous materials (in studying the process of deformation and rupture of such materials, there is no need to study the evolution of individual cracks) are considered. The main specific features of metal creep models at constant and variable stresses, in uniaxial and complex stress states, and with allowance for one or two damage parameters are described. Criterial and kinetic approaches used to determine long-term strength under conditions of a complex stress state are considered. Methods of modeling the metal behavior in an aggressive medium are described. A possibility of using these models for solving engineering problems is demonstrated.

  5. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  6. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  7. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  8. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    PubMed

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. PMID:26632992

  9. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    SciTech Connect

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm/sup 2//s to 5.0E-3 cm/sup 2//s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm/sup 2//s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles.

  10. Predictions of long-term performance of granular iron permeable reactive barriers: field-scale evaluation.

    PubMed

    Jeen, Sung-Wook; Gillham, Robert W; Przepiora, Andrzej

    2011-04-01

    Long-term performance is a key consideration for the granular iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology because the economic benefit relies on sustainable operation for substantial periods of time. However, predictions on the long-term performance have been limited mainly because of the lack of reliable modeling tools. This study evaluated the predictive capability of a recently-developed reactive transport model at two field-scale PRBs, both having relatively high concentrations of dissolved carbonate in the native groundwater. The first site, with 8 years of available monitoring data, was a funnel-and-gate installation, with a low groundwater velocity through the gate (about 0.12 m d(-1)). The loss in iron reactivity caused by secondary mineral precipitation was small, maintaining relatively high removal rates for chlorinated organics. The simulated concentrations for most constituents in the groundwater were within the range of the monitoring data. The second site, with monitoring data available for 5 years, was a continuous wall PRB, designed for a groundwater velocity of 0.9 m d(-1). A comparison of measured and simulated aqueous concentrations suggested that the average groundwater velocity through the PRB could be lower than the design value by a factor of two or more. The distribution and amounts of carbonate minerals measured in core samples supported the decreased groundwater velocity used in the simulation. The generally good agreement between the simulated and measured aqueous and solid-phase data suggest that the model could be an effective tool for predicting long-term performance of granular iron PRBs, particularly in groundwater with high concentrations of carbonate. PMID:21237528

  11. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  12. Predicting long-term and short-term tidal flat morphodynamics using a dynamic equilibrium theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhan; Wang, Zheng Bing; Zitman, Tjerk J.; Stive, Marcel J. F.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

    2015-09-01

    Dynamic equilibrium theory is a fruitful concept, which we use to systematically explain the tidal flat morphodynamic response to tidal currents, wind waves, sediment supply, and other sedimentological drivers. This theory stems from a simple analytical model that derives the tide- or wave-dominated tidal flat morphology by assuming that morphological equilibrium is associated with uniform bed shear stress distribution. Many studies based on observation and process-based modeling tend to agree with this analytical model. However, a uniform bed shear stress rarely exists on actual or modeled tidal flats, and the analytical model cannot handle the spatially and temporally varying bed shear stress. In the present study, we develop a model based on the dynamic equilibrium theory and its core assumption. Different from the static analytical model, our model explicitly accounts for the spatiotemporal bed shear stress variations for tidal flat dynamic prediction. To test our model and the embedded theory, we apply the model for both long-term and short-term morphological predictions. The long-term modeling is evaluated qualitatively against previous process-based modeling. The short-term modeling is evaluated quantitatively against high-resolution bed-level monitoring data obtained from a tidal flat in Netherlands. The model results show good performances in both qualitative and quantitative tests, indicating the validity of the dynamic equilibrium theory. Thus, this model provides a valuable tool to enhance our understanding of the tidal flat morphodynamics and to apply the dynamic equilibrium theory for realistic morphological predictions.

  13. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    PubMed

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. PMID:27449201

  14. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    PubMed

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. PMID:26192131

  15. Prediction of creep of polymer concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Khristova, Yu.; Aniskevich, K.

    1995-11-01

    We studied the applicability of the phenomenological approach to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete consisting of polyester binder with diabase filler and diabase aggregate. We discovered that the principles of temperature-time analogy, of moisture-time analogy, and of temperature-moisture-time analogy are applicable to the description of the diagrams of short-time creep and to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete at different temperatures and constant moisture content of the material.

  16. Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, M. S.; Nokes, D. J.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island. METHODS: The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel. FINDINGS: First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios. Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity. CONCLUSION: If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached. PMID:11477964

  17. Hybrid model for long-term prediction of the ionospheric global TEC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andonov, Borislav; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Pancheva, Dora

    2014-05-01

    A new hybrid model for long-term prediction of the global TEC was developed. It is based on the global empirical background TEC model constructed by Mukhtarov et al. (2013a,b) and the availability of regularly arriving fresh CODE TEC data. The cornerstone of the hybrid model consists of applying the method of autocorrelation prediction of the error and the respective correction of the background model with the predicted error. An important question is how the efficiency of the correction procedure depends on the given offset, i.e. the time distance between the dates for which the prediction is made to that with real data. It was found that the correction is really effective if the error prediction is made for a date with a distance up to 60 days from the date with real data. Then the RMSE decreases from 3.2 TECU (for the global background TEC model) to 2.76 TECU (for the hybrid model) which demonstrates the advantage of the presented in this paper hybrid model for long-term prediction with respect to the originally built background TEC model. REFERENCES Mukhtarov, P., Pancheva, D., Andonov, B., Pashova, L. Global TEC maps based on GNSS data: 1. Empirical background TEC model. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4609-4617, doi:10.1002/jgra.50413, 2013a. Mukhtarov, P., Pancheva, D., Andonov, B., Pashova, L. Global TEC maps based on GNSS data: 2. Model evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4594-4608, doi:10.1002/jgra.50412, 2013b.

  18. Using Genetic Variation to Predict and Extend Long-term Kidney Transplant Function.

    PubMed

    Simmonds, Matthew J

    2015-10-01

    Renal transplantation has transformed the life of patients with end-stage renal disease and other chronic kidney disorders by returning endogenous kidney function and enabling patients to cease dialysis. Several clinical indicators of graft outcome and long-term function have been established. Although rising creatinine levels and graft biopsy can be used to determine graft loss, identifying early predictors of graft function will not only improve our ability to predict long-term graft outcome but importantly provide a window of opportunity to therapeutically intervene to preserve graft function before graft failure has occurred. Since understanding the importance of matching genetic variation at the HLA region between donors and recipients and translating this into clinical practise to improve transplant outcome, much focus has been placed on trying to identify additional genetic predictors of transplant outcome/function. This review will focus on how candidate gene studies have identified variants within immunosuppression, immune response, fibrotic pathways, and specific ethnic groups, which correlate with graft outcome. We will also discuss the challenges faced by candidate gene studies, such as differences in donor and recipient selection criteria and use of small data sets, which have led to many genes failing to be consistently associated with transplant outcome. This review will also look at how recent advances in our understanding of and ability to screen the genome are starting to provide new insights into the mechanisms behind long-term graft loss and with it the opportunity to target these pathways therapeutically to ultimately increase graft lifespan and the associated benefits to patients. PMID:26262502

  19. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  20. Long-term polar motion prediction using normal time-frequency transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoqing; Liu, Lintao; Houtse, Hsu; Wang, Guocheng

    2014-02-01

    This paper presents normal time-frequency transform (NTFT) application in harmonic/quasi-harmonic signal prediction. Particularly, we use the normal wavelet transform (a special NTFT) to make long-term polar motion prediction. Instantaneous frequency, phase and amplitude of Chandler wobble, prograde and retrograde annual wobbles of Earth's polar motion are analyzed via the NTFT. Results show that the three main wobbles can be treated as quasi-harmonic processes. Current instantaneous harmonic information of the three wobbles can be acquired by the NTFT that has a kernel function constructed with a normal half-window function. Based on this information, we make the polar motion predictions with lead times of 1 year and 5 years. Results show that our prediction skills are very good with long lead time. An abnormality in the predictions occurs during the second half of 2005 and first half of 2006. Finally, we provide the future (starting from 2013) polar motion predictions with 1- and 5-year leads. These predictions will be used to verify the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.

  1. Multiple trauma in children: predicting outcome and long-term results

    PubMed Central

    Letts, Mervyn; Davidson, Darin; Lapner, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Objective To analyze the management of pediatric trauma and the efficacy of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in classifying injury severity and predicting prognosis. Design A retrospective case series. Setting The Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, a major pediatric trauma centre. Patients One hundred and forty-nine traumatized children with 2 or more injuries to 1 body system or a single injury to 2 or more body systems. Interventions Use of the PTS and Glasgow Coma Scale score in trauma management. Main outcome measures Types of injuries sustained, complications, missed injuries, psychosocial effects and residual deficiencies. Results The average PTS was 8.5 (range from −3 to 11). The total number of injuries sustained was 494, most commonly closed head injury (86). Forty-two percent of children with an average trauma score of 8.5 were treated surgically. There were 13 missed injuries, and complications were encountered in 57 children, the most common being secondary to fractures. Forty-eight (32%) children had residual long-term deficiency, most commonly neurologic deficiency secondary to head injury. Conclusions Fractures should be stabilized early to decrease long-term complications. A deficiency of the PTS is the weighting of open fractures of a minor bone. For example, metacarpal fracture is given the same weight as an open fracture of the femur. Neuropsychologic difficulties secondary to trauma are a major sequela of trauma in children. PMID:11939656

  2. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    PubMed Central

    Yacoby, Amnon; Dudai, Yadin; Mendelsohn, Avi

    2015-01-01

    Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK). We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and were immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or 1 day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information 1 day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories. PMID:25709571

  3. Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

  4. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1992-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  5. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    PubMed

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. PMID:24177136

  6. Repassivation potentials for long-term life prediction of localized corrosion

    SciTech Connect

    Sridhar, N.; Cragnolino, G.

    1993-12-31

    The effect of pit growth on repassivation potentials (e{sub rp}) of type 316L stainless steel (SS) and alloy 825 is investigated using a decreasing potential staircase technique. The E{sub rp} decreases initially with increasing pit depth and then attains a value which is relatively independent of pit depth. The E{sub rp} also decreases with increasing potential scan rate because of the decreasing time for repassivation with decreasing potential. The E{sub rp} is explained in terms of the effect of applied potential on changes in solution composition inside growing pits and its use is recommended as a bounding parameter for long-term prediction of localized corrosion.

  7. Long-term evolution and predictive factors of mild inflammatory bowel disease.

    PubMed

    Reenaers, C; Pirard, C; Vankemseke, C; Latour, P; Belaiche, J; Louis, E

    2016-06-01

    Background Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are potentially progressive diseases. Few data are available on the prevalence and the factors associated with mild inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Aim Our aim was to assess the natural history of mild CD and mild UC and to identify predictive factors of mild evolution over the long term. Methods Retrospective study of IBD patients registered in the database of the university hospital CHU of Liège, Belgium. Mild CD was defined as an inflammatory luminal disease (no stricture, abdominal or perianal fistulae) requiring no immunomodulator (IM), anti-TNF and no surgery. Mild UC was defined as no requirement for IM, anti-TNF and no colectomy. Results Four hundred and seventy-three CD and 189 UC were included (median follow-up: 13 and 11 years respectively). At 1 year, 147 patients had mild CD. At 5 years and the maximum follow-up, 56% and 13% patients still had mild CD, respectively. At 1 year, 142 patients had mild UC. At 5 years and the maximum follow-up, 72% and 44% still had a mild UC, respectively. Factors associated with long-term mild CD and UC were older age at diagnosis and absence of corticosteroids in the first year. In UC proctitis location was associated with mild UC. Conclusions In this cohort, 90% of CD patients and 3/4 of UC with mild disease at 1 year lost their mild disease status over time. An old age at diagnosis was predictive of the persistence of a mild CD and UC. PMID:26815198

  8. Granular Model of Long-Term Prediction for Energy System in Steel Industry.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jun; Han, Zhongyang; Pedrycz, Witold; Wang, Wei

    2016-02-01

    Sound energy scheduling and allocation is of paramount significance for the current steel industry, and the quantitative prediction of energy media is being regarded as the prerequisite for such challenging tasks. In this paper, a long-term prediction for the energy flows is proposed by using a granular computing-based method that considers industrial-driven semantics and granulates the initial data based on the specificity of manufacturing processes. When forming information granules on a basis of experimental data, we propose to deal with the unequal-length temporal granules by exploiting dynamic time warping, which becomes instrumental to the realization of the prediction model. The model engages the fuzzy C -means clustering method. To quantify the performance of the proposed method, real-world industrial energy data coming from a steel plant in China are employed. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to some other data-driven methods and becomes capable of satisfying the requirements of the practically viable prediction. PMID:26168454

  9. A simple model to predict the long-term fate of contaminants in unsaturated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, P.A. ); Sheppard, M.I.; Andres, T.H. )

    1993-01-01

    The authors present a model of contaminant transport in unsaturated soils that is suitable for long-term assessments. The model is based on a series of regression equations that represent the predictions of a mechanistic soil model. It therefore reflects the detailed treatment of processes, and the short time and space scales, of its parent code, but can predict root zone concentrations thousands of years in the future in just a few seconds of computer time, on even the simplest machines. The model accounts for transport via leaching and capillary rise, for chemical exchange between solid and liquid phases of the soil, and for losses, such as radioactive decay, gaseous evasion, and root uptake, that can be described as first-order processes. It can be applied to soils that are contaminated at the surface through irrigation or atmospheric deposition, or from below through contact with contaminated groundwater. It was developed to treat soil types and climates typical of the Canadian Shield, but could be modified for other conditions. The authors discuss the parent mechanistic model briefly, and then describe in detail its simplification and reduction to a simple assessment model. The authors show that the assessment model satisfactorily reproduces the predictions of the mechanistic model, which has been extensively validated against observations of contaminant concentrations in soils. A comparison of the model with multicompartment models, which have traditionally been used for assessment purposes, suggests that differences between the two types of models may cause systematic differences in predictions.

  10. Fitness predicts long-term survival after a cardiovascular event: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Barons, Martine J; Turner, Sally; Parsons, Nicholas; Griffiths, Frances; Bethell, Hugh; Weich, Scott; Thorogood, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To identify the role of fitness, fitness change, body mass index and other factors in predicting long-term (>5 years) survival in patients with coronary heart disease. Design Cohort study of patients with coronary heart disease recruited from 1 January 1993 to 31 December 2002, followed up to March 2011 (1 day to 18 years 3 months, mean 10.7 years). Setting A community-based National Health Service (NHS) cardiac rehabilitation programme serving the Basingstoke and Alton area in Hampshire, UK. Participants An unselected cohort of NHS patients, 2167 men and 547 women aged 28–88 years, who attended the rehabilitation programme following acute myocardial infarction, an episode of angina or revascularisation, and had a baseline fitness test. Main outcome measures Cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Results A high level of fitness (VO2≥22 mL/kg/min for men, VO2≥19 mL/kg/min for women) at completion of the programme was associated with decreased all-cause death, as was a prescription for statins or aspirin, and female gender. Increase in all-cause mortality was associated with higher age and ACE inhibitors prescription. Higher risk of cardiovascular mortality was associated with increasing age, prescriptions for ACE inhibitor, and diagnosis of myocardial infarction or angina as compared with the other diagnoses. Conclusions Prior fitness and fitness improvement are strong predictors of long-term survival in patients who have experienced a cardiac event or procedure. Some secondary prevention medications make a significant contribution to reducing all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in these patients. This study supports public health messages promoting fitness for life. PMID:26493455

  11. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1991-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  12. Prognostic Significance of Premature Atrial Complexes Burden in Prediction of Long-Term Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Chin-Yu; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chen, Yun-Yu; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chung, Fa-Po; Hu, Yu-Feng; Chong, Eric; Cheng, Hao-Min; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chiou, Chuen-Wang; Huang, Jin-Long; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2015-01-01

    Background The prognostic significance of premature atrial complex (PAC) burden is not fully elucidated. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the burden of PACs and long-term outcome. Methods and Results We investigated the clinical characteristics of 5371 consecutive patients without atrial fibrillation (AF) or a permanent pacemaker (PPM) at baseline who underwent 24-hour electrocardiography monitoring between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2004. Clinical event data were retrieved from the Bureau of National Health Insurance of Taiwan. During a mean follow-up duration of 10±1 years, there were 1209 deaths, 1166 cardiovascular-related hospitalizations, 3104 hospitalizations for any reason, 418 cases of new-onset AF, and 132 PPM implantations. The optimal cut-off of PAC burden for predicting mortality was 76 beats per day, with a sensitivity of 63.1% and a specificity of 63.5%. In multivariate analysis, a PAC burden >76 beats per day was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio: 1.384, 95% CI: 1.230 to 1.558), cardiovascular hospitalization (hazard ratio: 1.284, 95% CI: 1.137 to 1.451), new-onset AF (hazard ratio: 1.757, 95% CI: 1.427 to 2.163), and PPM implantation (hazard ratio: 2.821, 95% CI: 1.898 to 4.192). Patients with frequent PAC had increased risk of mortality attributable to myocardial infarction, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. Frequent PACs increased risk of PPM implantation owing to sick sinus syndrome, high-degree atrioventricular block, and/or AF. Conclusions The burden of PACs is independently associated with mortality, cardiovascular hospitalization, new-onset AF, and PPM implantation in the long term. PMID:26316525

  13. The Power of Renal Function Estimation Equations for Predicting Long-Term Kidney Graft Survival

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hoon Young; Joo, Dong Jin; Song, Mi Kyung; Kim, Myoung Soo; Park, Hyeong Cheon; Kim, Yu Seun; Kim, Beom Seok

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Evaluation of renal function using an accurate estimation equation is important for predicting long-term graft survival. We designed this retrospective cohort study to evaluate the predictive power of renal function estimation by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equations for graft survival. We reviewed data of 3290 adult kidney transplant recipients who underwent transplantation at a single center between April 1979 and September 2012. The reliability and agreement of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as calculated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations were evaluated using Bland–Altman plots and Cohen weighted kappa analyses. The predictive power of CKD stages as classified by each equation for graft survival was investigated using Cox regression models. Additionally, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to reveal the relationship between graft survival and eGFR equations. Of 3290 kidney transplant recipients, 3040 were included in the analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 128.08 ± 83.54 months, and 29.8% of participants were reclassified to higher eGFR categories by the CKD-EPI equation compared to the category classification by the MDRD equation. eGFR calculated using the MDRD equation was underestimated compared to that calculated using the CKD-EPI equation, based on the Bland–Altman plot. In Cohen weighted kappa analysis, agreement across CKD stages classified using the 2 equations was reliable, but all CKD stages classified using the MDRD equation appeared to be in lower eGFR categories than those classified using the CKD-EPI equation. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses indicated that the CKD stage as classified by the CKD-EPI equation, but not the MDRD equation, was significantly correlated with the risk of graft failure. In multivariable Cox regression analysis for

  14. Holmium laser transurethral incision of the prostate: Can prostate size predict the long-term outcome?

    PubMed Central

    Elkoushy, Mohamed A.; Elshal, Ahmed M.; Elhilali, Mostafa M.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: We determine the impact of prostate size on the long-term outcome of holmium laser transurethral incision of the prostate (Ho-TUIP) for bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) secondary to benign prostate enlargement (BPE). Methods: A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was performed for patients undergoing Ho-TUIP by a single surgeon for patients presenting with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to BOO. Patients were stratified into 2 groups: Group 1 included patients with prostate ≤30 cc and Group 2 included patients with prostate >30 cc. Demographic, operative and follow-up data were recorded and analyzed. In addition, intraoperative and long-term adverse events were included. Results: In total, 82 patients underwent surgery between March 1998 and March 2013, including 9 (11%) reoperated patients. Only prostate size independently predicted reoperation after Ho-TUIP (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.12 [2.92–9.14], p = 0.01). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed an optimal cutoff value of prostate volume of 29 cc to characterize long-term reoperation after TUIP, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.96, sensitivity of 89.7 and specificity of 88.9. Group 1 included 51 patients and Group 2 included 31 patients. The international prostate symptoms score (IPSS) and peak flow rate (Qmax) significantly improved in both groups at different follow-up points. At the 12-month follow-up, the percent change in IPSS and Qmax were comparable between both groups. However, after 12 months, the degree of improvement in all voiding parameters was significantly higher in Group 1 (p < 0.001 at all points of follow-up). After a median follow-up of 5.3 years (range: 1–13), both groups had comparable early and late adverse events with significantly higher reoperation rate in Group 2 (3.9% vs. 22.6%, p = 0.02). Overall retrograde ejaculation was detected in 25.6% of sexually active men and it was

  15. A New Height Error Revision Method of Predicting Long-Term Wind Speed with MCP Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yujue; Hu, Fei

    2013-04-01

    Wind energy technology is one of the fastest in growing rate in new and renewable energy technologies. It is very important to select stronger windy sites in a country for the purpose of producing more electricity. Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) algorithms are used to predict the wind resource at target site for wind power development. MCP method model bases on a relationship between wind data (speed and direction) measured at the target site and concurrent wind data at reference site nearby. The model is then used with long-term data from the reference site to predict the long-term wind speed and direction distributions at the target site. MCP method is in order to be able to determine the annual energy capture of a wind farm located at the target site. Over the last 15 years well over a half dozen of MCP methods in the literature. The MCP algorithms differ in terms of overall approach, model definition, use of direction sectors, and length of the data. Such as 1)a linear regression model; 2)a model using distributions of ratios of wind speeds at two sites; 3)a vector regression method; 4)a method based on the ratio of standard deviations of two data sets, etc. Unfortunately, none of these MCP algorithms can predict wind speed from two sites at different altitudes. If the target site is much higher or lower than the reference site, the result accuracy will be much poorer. Inner Mongolia grassland is known as one of the regions that rich in wind resource in China. The data we use is from three wind measurements, consisting of nearly one year of six layers in XiLinGuoLe of Inner Mongolia . Firstly, we use the maximum likelihood method to estimate k, shape parameter and c, scale parameter of the Weibull function for different time periods. And then we find out that c has a power law function of height, and that k varies as the form of a quadratic function of height and obtains the max value in the height of 10 to100 meters. Finally, we add the height distribution

  16. Coronary artery calcifications predict long term cardiovascular events in non diabetic Caucasian hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Noce, Annalisa; Canale, Maria Paola; Capria, Ambrogio; Rovella, Valentina; Tesauro, Manfredi; Splendiani, Giorgio; Annicchiarico-Petruzzelli, Margherita; Manzuoli, Micol; Simonetti, Giovanni; Di Daniele, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Vascular calcifications are frequent in chronic renal disease and are associated to significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The long term predictive value of coronary artery calcifications detected by multi-layer spiral computed tomography for major cardiovascular events was evaluated in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis free of clinical cardiovascular disease. Two-hundred and five patients on maintenance hemodialysis were enrolled into this observational, prospective cohort study. Patients underwent a single cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography. Calcium load was quantified and patients grouped according to the Agatston score: group 1 (Agatston score: 0), group 2 (Agatston score 1-400), group 3 (Agatston score 401-1000) and group 4 (Agatston score >1000). Follow-up was longer than seven years. Primary endpoint was death from a major cardiovascular event. Actuarial survival was calculated separately in the four groups with Kaplan-Meier method. Patients who died from causes other than cardiovascular disease and transplanted patients were censored. The “log rank” test was employed to compare survival curves. One-hundred two patients (49.7%) died for a major cardiovascular event during the follow-up period. Seven-year actuarial survival was more than 90% for groups 1 and 2, but failed to about 50% for group 3 and to <10% for group 4. Hence, Agatston score >400 predicts a significantly higher cardiovascular mortality compared with Agatston score <400 (p<0.0001); furthermore, serum Parathyroid hormone levels > 300 pg/l were associated to a lower survival (p < 0.05). Extended coronary artery calcifications detected by cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography, strongly predicted long term cardiovascular mortality in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Moreover, it was not related to conventional indices of atherosclerosis, but to other non-traditional risk factors, as serum Parathyroid

  17. Vasoreactivity to inhaled nitric oxide with oxygen predicts long-term survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    PubMed

    Malhotra, Rajeev; Hess, Dean; Lewis, Gregory D; Bloch, Kenneth D; Waxman, Aaron B; Semigran, Marc J

    2011-04-01

    Pulmonary vasodilator testing is currently used to guide management of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, the utility of the pulmonary vascular response to inhaled nitric oxide (NO) and oxygen in predicting survival has not been established. Eighty patients with WHO Group I PAH underwent vasodilator testing with inhaled NO (80 ppm with 90% O(2) for 10 minutes) at the time of diagnosis. Changes in right atrial (RA) pressure, mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, Fick cardiac output, and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were tested for associations to long-term survival (median follow-up 2.4 years). Five-year survival was 56%. Baseline PVR (mean±SD 850±580 dyne-sec/cm(5)) and mPAP (49±14 mmHg) did not predict survival, whereas the change in either PVR or mPAP while breathing NO and O(2) was predictive. Patients with a ≥30% reduction in PVR with inhaled NO and O(2) had a 53% relative reduction in mortality (Cox hazard ratio 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.99, P=0.047), and those with a ≥12% reduction in mPAP with inhaled NO and O(2) had a 55% relative reduction in mortality (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.22-0.96, P=0.038). The same vasoreactive thresholds predicted survival in the subset of patients who never were treated with calcium channel antagonists (n=66). Multivariate analysis showed that decreases in PVR and mPAP with inhaled NO and O(2) were independent predictors of survival. Reduction in PVR or mPAP during short-term administration of inhaled NO and O(2) predicts survival in PAH patients. PMID:22020367

  18. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sun-Young; Yi, Seon-Ju; Eum, Young Seob; Choi, Hae-Jin; Shin, Hyesop; Ryou, Hyoung Gon; Kim, Ho

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively). Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics. PMID:25262773

  19. Long-term colonic hypersensitivity in adult rats induced by neonatal unpredictable vs predictable shock.

    PubMed

    Tyler, K; Moriceau, S; Sullivan, R M; Greenwood-van Meerveld, B

    2007-09-01

    Our goal was to examine the relationship between early life trauma and the development of visceral hypersensitivity in later life in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Rat pups underwent neonatal conditioning: (i) paired odour-shock, where odour is a predictable shock signal, (ii) unpaired odour-shock, where odour is an unpredictable shock signal or (iii) control odour-only with odour presentations and handling without shock. At maturity, colorectal sensitivity was measured as a visceromotor behavioural response. In adulthood, colorectal distension (CRD) induced a pressure-dependent increase in the number of abdominal muscle contractions all three experimental groups. However, compared to animals that had received control odour-only presentations in infancy, there was an attenuated response to CRD in animals previously exposed to neonatal predictable shock pups and an exaggerated response in the animals previously exposed to neonatal unpredictable shock. Adult responses to CRD were altered by infant experience with shock trauma. However, depending on the context of that early life trauma, there are major differences between the long-term effects of that early life trauma on colonic sensitivity compared to controls. These results strengthen the link between early life trauma and adult IBS, and suggest that unpredictable trauma is a critical factor for later life disorders. PMID:17727395

  20. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  1. Effects of regional differences in the long term carbon balance on predicted net CO2 fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, Tilo; Scholze, Marko; Knorr, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) allows the current fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere to be mapped and the evolution of these fluxes into the future to be predicted. In this work we concentrate on the calibration mode of CCDAS where an optimal parameter set is derived from 10 years of atmospheric CO2 concentration observations using an adjoint approach. Global and regional process parameters are considered via a mapping routine. The parameters are then optimised by calculating the mismatch of the observations and prior knowledge of the parameters via a defined cost function. Further, parameter uncertainty estimates, which are obtained during the parameter optimisation step, can be propagated in order to estimate uncertainties of any given output such as of the predicted net CO2 fluxes. The process based terrestrial biosphere model BETHY is the core of CCDAS. It simulates carbon assimilation and soil respiration within a full energy and water balance and phenology scheme. Produced fluxes are then mapped onto atmospheric concentrations using the atmospheric transport model TM2. BETHY has 20 parameters for each plant functional type (PFT). There is a choice from a single global description up to independent parameter sets for every grid point. In the base case, all parameters are applied globally. Additionally, the key photosynthetic parameters (maximum electron transport and maximum carboxylation rate) and the key carbon storage parameter β vary with each of the 13 PFTs which gives a total of 56 control parameters. The β parameter is a scaling parameter for a constraint that exists for the long term carbon balance. This constraint is implemented in BETHY in order to consider unknown processes such as climate forcing and disturbance. On the contrary to the other process parameters, β is not necessarily a global parameter. In fact, there might be a strong regional dependency, because β represents information about the history of the site and the

  2. Lesion Load May Predict Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lavorgna, Luigi; Messina, Silvia; Chisari, Clara Grazia; Ippolito, Domenico; Lanzillo, Roberta; Vacchiano, Veria; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Paola; Coniglio, Gabriella; Buccafusca, Maria; Paolicelli, Damiano; D’Ambrosio, Alessandro; Montella, Patrizia; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Alfano, Bruno; Gallo, Antonio; Simone, Isabella; Viterbo, Rosa; Zappia, Mario; Bonavita, Simona; Tedeschi, Gioacchino

    2015-01-01

    Background Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm) in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives To investigate the role of white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients. Methods 303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up). The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f) of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f), WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f), a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL), the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT). In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors. Results AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12–1.97 p = 0.006), PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14–1.80 p = 0.002), SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35–2.20 p<0.001), SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28–2.03 p<0.001), MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2–1.9 p<0.001), MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2–1.9 p = 0.001), MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02–1.55 p = 0.032). Conclusion In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome. PMID:25816303

  3. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes. PMID:23998347

  4. Preschool Speech Intelligibility and Vocabulary Skills Predict Long-Term Speech and Language Outcomes Following Cochlear Implantation in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G.; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C.; Colson, Bethany G.; Pisoni, David B.

    2013-01-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants, but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine if early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of cochlear implants. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3 – 6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes. PMID:23998347

  5. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect

    Gollany, H. T.; Rickman, R. W.; Albrecht, S. L.; Liang, Y.; Kang, Shujiang; Machado, S.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the potential of no-tillage (NT) management to maintain SOC stocks while removing crop residue. Classical LTEs at Champaign, IL (1876), Columbia, MO (1888), Lethbridge, AB (1911), Breton, AB (1930), and Pendleton, OR (1931) were selected for their documented history of management practice and periodic soil organic matter (SOM) measurements. Management practices ranged from monoculture to 2- or 3-yr crop rotations, manure, no fertilizer or fertilizer additions, and crop residue returned, burned, or harvested. Measured and CQESTR predicted SOC stocks under diverse agronomic practices, mean annual temperature (2.1 19 C), precipitation (402 973 mm), and SOC (5.89 33.58 g SOC kg 1) at the LTE sites were significantly related (r 2 = 0.94, n = 186, P < 0.0001) with a slope not significantly different than 1. The simulation results indicated that the quantities of crop residue that can be sustainably harvested without jeopardizing SOC stocks were influenced by initial SOC stocks, crop rotation intensity, tillage practices, crop yield, and climate. Manure or a cover crop/intensified crop rotation under NT are options to mitigate loss of crop residue C, as using fertilizer alone is insufficient to overcome residue removal impact on SOC stocks

  6. Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

    The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

  7. Glycated Albumin Predicts Long-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Ma, Wen-Ya; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Liu, Yueh-Min; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: In patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing maintenance hemodialysis, glycated albumin (GA) levels may be more representative of blood glucose levels than hemoglobin A1C levels. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of GA levels on long-term survival in hemodialysis patients. Methods: A total of 176 patients with a mean age of 68.2 years were enrolled. The median duration of follow-up was 51.0 months. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff value. We examined the cumulative survival rate by Kaplan-Meier estimates and the influence of known survival factors with the multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression model. Results: In the whole patient group, cumulative survival in the low GA group was better than in the high GA group (p=0.030), with more prominence in those aged <70 years (p=0.029). In subgroup analysis, both diabetic (DM) and non-DM patients with low GA had a better cumulative survival compared with those with high GA. The risk of mortality increased by 3.0% for each 1% increase in serum GA level in all patients undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusions: In addition to serving as a glycemic control marker, GA levels may be useful for evaluating the risk of death in both DM and non-DM patients on hemodialysis. PMID:27226780

  8. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-12-31

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion.

  9. Response to methotrexate predicts long-term patient-related outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Krause, Dietmar; Gabriel, Bernadette; Herborn, Gertraud; Braun, Juergen; Rau, Rolf

    2016-05-01

    This study was conducted to investigate the predictive value of the initial response to methotrexate (MTX) on long-term patient-related outcomes (PROs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). All RA patients starting MTX treatment between 1980 and 1987 in our department were enrolled in a prospective observational study. After an average of 18 years, patient-related outcomes were assessed in three dimensions according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Statistical analyses employed multivariable models with baseline values for age, gender, disease duration, rheumatoid factor positivity, disease activity, response to MTX after 1 year and continuous use of MTX as covariates. The 271 patients enrolled had a mean disease duration of 8.5 years, a mean number of swollen joints of 18 (out of 32), and a mean erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 55 mm/h. After 18 years, PRO was available in 89 patients (33 %). A clinical improvement of at least 20 % 1 year after the initiation of MTX was associated with a favourable outcome in all three dimensions of the ICF, independent of continuation of MTX (p < 0.05). The initial response to MTX is an independent predictor of PRO in RA as assessed after an average of 18 years. PMID:26920753

  10. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  11. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-01-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reaches an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature, and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes circa 300 years for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  12. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  13. Early Prediction of Long-Term Response to Cabergoline in Patients with Macroprolactinomas

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Youngki; Ku, Cheol Ryong; Kim, Eui-Hyun; Lee, Eun Jig; Kim, Sun Ho

    2014-01-01

    Background Cabergoline is typically effective for treating prolactinomas; however, some patients display cabergoline resistance, and the early characteristics of these patients remain unclear. We analyzed early indicators predicting long-term response to cabergoline. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 44 patients with macroprolactinomas who received cabergoline as first-line treatment; the patients were followed for a median of 16 months. The influence of various clinical parameters on outcomes was evaluated. Results Forty patients (90.9%) were treated medically and displayed tumor volume reduction (TVR) of 74.7%, a prolactin normalization (NP) rate of 81.8%, and a complete response (CR; TVR >50% with NP, without surgery) rate of 70.5%. Most patients (93.1%) with TVR ≥25% and NP at 3 months eventually achieved CR, whereas only 50% of patients with TVR ≥25% without NP and no patients with TVR <25% achieved CR. TVR at 3 months was strongly correlated with final TVR (R=0.785). Patients with large macroadenomas exhibited a low NP rate at 3 months, but eventually achieved TVR and NP rates similar to those of patients with smaller tumors. Surgery independently reduced the final dose of cabergoline (β=-1.181 mg/week), and two of four patients who underwent surgery were able to discontinue cabergoline. Conclusion Determining cabergoline response using TVR and NP 3 months after treatment is useful for predicting later outcomes. However, further cabergoline administration should be considered for patients with TVR >25% at 3 months without NP, particularly those with huge prolactinomas, because a delayed response may be achieved. As surgery can reduce the cabergoline dose necessary for successful disease control, it should be considered for cabergoline-resistant patients. PMID:25309786

  14. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  15. Predicting long-term denitrification capacity of sandy aquifers from incubation experiments and sediment properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschenbach, W.; Well, R.

    2012-07-01

    Knowledge about the spatial variability of denitrification rates and the lifetime of denitrification in nitrate-contaminated aquifers is crucial to predict the development of groundwater quality. Therefore, regression models were derived to estimate the measured denitrification capacity of incubated aquifer sediments from initial denitrification rates and several sediment parameters, namely total sulphur, total organic carbon, extractable sulfate, extractable dissolved organic carbon, hot water soluble organic carbon and potassium permanganate labile organic carbon. For this purpose, we incubated aquifer material from two sandy Pleistocene aquifers in Northern Germany under anaerobic conditions in the laboratory using the 15N tracer technique. The measured long-term denitrification capacities ranged from 0.18 to 56.2 mg N kg-1 yr-1. The laboratory incubations exhibited high differences between non-sulphidic and sulphidic aquifer material in both aquifers with respect to all investigated sediment parameters. Denitrification rates and the estimated lifetime of denitrification were higher in the sulphidic samples. Denitrification capacity measured during one year of incubation (Dcap) was predictable from sediment variables within a range of uncertainty of 0.5 to 2 (calculated Dcap/measured Dcap) for aquifer material with a Dcap > 20 mg N kg-1 yr-1. Predictions were poor for samples with lower Dcap like samples from the NO3--bearing groundwater zone, which includes the non-sulphidic samples, from the upper part of both aquifers where Dcap is not sufficient to protect groundwater from anthropogenic NO3- input. Calculation of Dcap from initial denitrification rates was only successful for samples from the NO3--bearing zone, whereas a lag-phase of denitrification in samples from deeper zones of NO3- free groundwater caused imprecise predictions. Our results thus show that Dcap of sandy Pleistocene aquifers can be predicted using a combination of short-term incubation and

  16. Creep: Long-term Time-Dependent Rock Deformation in a Deep-sea Laboratory in the Ionian sea: a Pilot Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, P. G.; Boon, S.; Vinciguerra, S.; Bowles, J.; NEMO Group,.

    2003-12-01

    Time-dependent brittle rock deformation is of first-order importance for understanding the long-term behavior of water saturated rocks in the Earth's upper crust. Interpretation of results from traditional laboratory brittle creep experiments have generally been in terms of three individual creep phases; primary (decelerating), secondary (constant strain rate or quasi-steady-state) and tertiary (accelerating or unstable). The deformation may be distributed during the first two, but localizes onto a fault plane during phase three. More recently, models have been proposed that explain the trimodal shape of creep curves in terms of the competition between a weakening mechanism and a strengthening mechanism, with the weakening mechanism eventually dominating and leading to localized failure. However, a major problem is that it is difficult to distinguish between these competing mechanisms and models given the lower limit of strain rates achievable in laboratory experiments over practicable time scales. This study aims to address that problem directly by extending significantly the range of achievable strain rates through much longer-term experiments conducted in a deep-sea laboratory in the Ionian sea. The project takes advantage of a collaboration with the NEMO Group-INFN, a consortium that is developing a large volume (1 km3) deep-sea detector for high-energy (>1019 eV) cosmic neutrinos. A suitable test site has been identified, some 20km north-east of Catania in Sicily, at a depth of 2100m. Within the CREEP deformation apparatus, confining pressure is provided by the ambient water pressure (>22MPa), and the constant axial stress is provided by an actuator that amplifies this pressure. Measurement transducers and a data acquisition system are sealed internally, with power provided for up to 6 months by an internal battery pack. The great advantage of operating in the deep sea in this way is that the system is essentially passive, has few moving parts, and requires no

  17. Double quantization of the regressor space for long-term time series prediction: method and proof of stability.

    PubMed

    Simon, Geoffroy; Lendasse, Amaury; Cottrell, Marie; Fort, Jean-Claude; Verleysen, Michel

    2004-01-01

    The Kohonen self-organization map is usually considered as a classification or clustering tool, with only a few applications in time series prediction. In this paper, a particular time series forecasting method based on Kohonen maps is described. This method has been specifically designed for the prediction of long-term trends. The proof of the stability of the method for long-term forecasting is given, as well as illustrations of the utilization of the method both in the scalar and vectorial cases. PMID:15555859

  18. Near and long-term load prediction using radial basis function networks

    SciTech Connect

    Hancock, M.F.

    1995-12-31

    A number of researchers have investigated the application of multi-layer perceptrons (MLP`s), a variety of neural network, to the problem of short-term load forecasting for electric utilities (e.g., Rahman & Hazin, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, May 1993). {open_quotes}Short-term{close_quotes} in this context typically means {open_quotes}next day{close_quotes}. These forecasts have been based upon previous day actual loads and meteorological factors (e.g., max-min temperature, relative humidity). We describe the application of radial basis function networks (RBF`s) to the {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} (next year) load forecasting problem. The RBF network performs a two-stage classification based upon annual average loads and meteorological data. During stage 1, discrete classification is performed using radius-limited elements. During stage 2, a multi-layer perceptron may be applied. The quantized output is used to correct a prediction template. The stage 1 classifier is trained by maximizing an objective function (the {open_quotes}disambiguity{close_quotes}). The stage 2 MLP`s are trained by standard back-propagation. This work uses 12 months of hourly meteorological data, and the corresponding hourly load data for both commercial and residential feeders. At the current stage of development, the RBF machine can train on 20% of the weather/load data (selected by simple linear sampling), and estimate the hourly load for an entire year (8,760 data points) with 9.1% error (RMS, relative to daily peak load). (By comparison, monthly mean profiles perform at c. 12% error.) The best short-term load forecasters operate in the 2% error range. The current system is an engineering prototype, and development is continuing.

  19. Long-term testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G. A., Jr.

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000-10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  20. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  1. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples

    PubMed Central

    Baucom, Brian R.; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f0), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f0 were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. PMID:22542535

  2. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  3. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  4. Predictive factors for long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion: a multivariate data analysis.

    PubMed

    Peolsson, Anneli; Peolsson, Michael

    2008-03-01

    We conducted a prospective randomized study to investigate predictive factors for short- and long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion (ACDF) as measured by current pain intensity on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and by disability using the Neck Disability Index (NDI). Current understanding about how preoperative and short-term outcome data predict long-term outcome is sparse, and there are few studies involving analysis of short-term follow-up using multivariate approaches with quantification of the relative importance of each variable studied. A total of 95 patients were randomly allocated for ACDF with the cervical intervertebral fusion cage or the Cloward procedure. The mean follow-up time was 19 months (range 12-24) for short-term follow-up and 76 months (range 56-94 months) for long-term. Background factors, radiologically detected findings, physiological measurements, treatment type, pain, and disability were used as potential predictors. Multivariate statistical analysis by projection to latent structures was used to investigate predictors of importance for short- and long-term outcome of ACDF. A "preoperative" low disability and pain intensity, non-smoking status, male sex, good hand strength, and an active range of motion (AROM) in the neck were significant predictors for good short- and long-term outcomes. The short-term outcome data were better at predicting long-term outcome than were baseline data. Radiologically detected findings and surgical technique used were mainly insignificant as predictors. We suggest that the inclusion criteria for ACDF should be based on a bio-psycho-social model including NDI. NDI may also be regarded as an important outcome measurement in evaluation of ACDF. PMID:18084782

  5. Predicting Long-term Soil Organic Matter Dynamics as affected by Agricultural Management Practice Using the CQESTR Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Management of soil organic matter (SOM) is important for soil productivity and responsible utilization of crop residues. Carbon (C) models are needed to predict long-term effects of management practices on C storage in soils and to estimate the benefits when considering alternative management practi...

  6. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  7. Creep: long-term time-dependent rock deformation in a deep-sea laboratory in the ionian sea: a pilot study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, P.; Boon, S.; Vinciguerra, S.; Bowles, J.; Hughes, N.; Migneco, E.; Musumeci, M.; Piattelli, P.; Riccobene, G.; Vinciguerra, D.

    2003-04-01

    Time-dependent brittle rock deformation is of first-order importance for understanding the long-term behaviour of water saturated rocks in the Earth's upper crust. The traditional way of investigating this has been to carry out laboratory "brittle creep" experiments. Results have been interpreted involving three individual creep phases; primary (decelerating), secondary (constant strain rate or steady state) and tertiary (accelerating or unstable). The deformation may be distributed during the first two, but localizes onto a fault plane during phase three. However, it is difficult to distinguish between competing mechanisms and models given the lower limit of strain rates practicably achievable in the laboratory. The study reported here aims to address this problem directly by extending significantly the range of achievable strain rates through much longer-term experiments conducted in a deep-sea laboratory in the Ionian sea. The project takes advantage of a collaboration with the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud (LNS) of the Italian National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN), that is developing a deep-sea laboratory for a very large volume (1 km3) deep-sea detector of high-energy (>1019 eV) cosmic neutrinos (NEMO). A suitable deep-sea site has been identified, some 20km south-west of Catania in Sicily, with flat bathymetry at a depth of 2100m. The CREEP deformation apparatus is driven by an actuator that amplifies the ambient water pressure, while the confining pressure around the rock sample is provided by the ambient water pressure (>20MPa). Measurement transducers and a low-energy data acquisition system are sealed internally, with power provided for up to 6 months by an internal battery pack. The great advantage of operating in the deep sea in this way is that the system is simple; it is "passive", has few moving parts, and requires no maintenance. The apparatus is fixed approximately 10m above the seabed; held in place by a disposable concrete anchor and

  8. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today. PMID:26219117

  9. Predictive capability of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

    1984-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems. Previously announced in STAR as N83-22386

  10. Value of Superficial Cultures for Prediction of Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infection in Long-Term Catheters: a Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín-Rabadán, P.; Echenagusia, A.; Camúñez, F.; Rodríguez-Rosales, G.; Simó, G.; Echenagusia, M.; Bouza, E.

    2013-01-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports. PMID:23850957

  11. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years. PMID:26735853

  12. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals’ social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years. PMID:26735853

  13. Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

    1979-01-01

    The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

  14. An accurate and efficient method for prediction of the long-term evolution of space debris in the geosynchronous region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, Roger P.; Eagle, C. D.

    1992-08-01

    Planetary Observer High Accuracy Orbit Prediction Program (POHOP), an existing numerical integrator, was modified with the solar and lunar formulae developed by T.C. Van Flandern and K.F. Pulkkinen to provide the accuracy required to evaluate long-term orbit characteristics of objects on the geosynchronous region. The orbit of a 1000 kg class spacecraft is numerically integrated over 50 years using both the original and the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides methods. Results of this study demonstrate that, over the long term, for an object located in the geosynchronous region, the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides effects on the objects's position are significantly different than using the current POHOP ephemeris.

  15. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  16. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  17. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  18. Structural and parameterization issues of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models for long-term predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappas, Christoforos; Fatichi, Simone; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Burlando, Paolo

    2013-04-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are widely used for analyzing forest growth dynamics and possible biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate. Their performance has been typically tested against flux tower and forest inventory observations and by model intercomparison studies. In the present analysis the parameterization of LPJ-GUESS, a state-of-the-art ecosystem model, was evaluated by performing a global sensitivity analysis. We show that simulated carbon fluxes and pools are highly sensitive to parameters related to photosynthesis. At the same time, the sensitivity to parameters controlling plant water relations was low even in relatively dry conditions. Both of these results seem to be in contradiction with recent evidence showing that photosynthesis is not the primary driver of plant growth while plant-water relations and thermal controls are significant. In addition, we investigate how parameter variability, driven by plant acclimation and evolution, is translated into uncertainties of model realizations. This is achieved by presenting an ensemble of global-scale simulations based on a simple "perturbed biophysics" experiment. Because the aim of DGVMs is often long term, climate non-stationary projections, we argue that significant amendments are needed in the their structures and not only in their parameterizations.

  19. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  20. Prognostic factors in ovarian carcinoma stage III patients. Can biomarkers improve the prediction of short- and long-term survivors?

    PubMed

    Kaern, J; Aghmesheh, M; Nesland, J M; Danielsen, H E; Sandstad, B; Friedlander, M; Tropé, C

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine if biomarker expression could help discriminate between short-term and long-term survivors in women with advanced ovarian cancer. Fifty-one patients with stage III ovarian cancer were selected for the study, which included 28 short-term survivors (death from ovarian cancer within 18 months) and 23 long-term survivors (alive for more than 5 years). There was no difference between the two groups with respect to FIGO substage, age, World Health Organization score, and first-line platinum therapy. Classic clinical pathologic parameters were examined together with p53, Bcl-2, Ki-67, PDGFRalpha, P-glycoprotein, BRCA1, and DNA ploidy. Immunohistochemistry was used for scoring biomarker expression and image cytometry for DNA ploidy. All patients had primary debulking surgery followed by first-line platinum therapy. On multivariate analysis, the presence of ascites, debulking surgery and repeat laparotomy, clear-cell histology, elevated CA125, and high Ki-67 score were all found to be of prognostic importance. The long-term survivors were characterized by primary optimal cytoreduction surgery (<1 cm residual disease), attempt at maximal tumor debulking by experienced gynecological oncologic surgeons, and the absence of ascites. Normal CA125 level before platinum therapy and negative Ki-67 expression also predicted a more favorable prognosis. PMID:16343177

  1. Rapid decrease in tumor perfusion following VEGF blockade predicts long-term tumor growth inhibition in preclinical tumor models.

    PubMed

    Eichten, Alexandra; Adler, Alexander P; Cooper, Blerta; Griffith, Jennifer; Wei, Yi; Yancopoulos, George D; Lin, Hsin Chieh; Thurston, Gavin

    2013-04-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a key upstream mediator of tumor angiogenesis, and blockade of VEGF can inhibit tumor angiogenesis and decrease tumor growth. However, not all tumors respond well to anti-VEGF therapy. Despite much effort, identification of early response biomarkers that correlate with long-term efficacy of anti-VEGF therapy has been difficult. These difficulties arise in part because the functional effects of VEGF inhibition on tumor vessels are still unclear. We therefore assessed rapid molecular, morphologic and functional vascular responses following treatment with aflibercept (also known as VEGF Trap or ziv-aflibercept in the United States) in preclinical tumor models with a range of responses to anti-VEGF therapy, including Colo205 human colorectal carcinoma (highly sensitive), C6 rat glioblastoma (moderately sensitive), and HT1080 human fibrosarcoma (resistant), and correlated these changes to long-term tumor growth inhibition. We found that an overall decrease in tumor vessel perfusion, assessed by dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US), and increases in tumor hypoxia correlated well with long-term tumor growth inhibition, whereas changes in vascular gene expression and microvessel density did not. Our findings support previous clinical studies showing that decreased tumor perfusion after anti-VEGF therapy (measured by DCE-US) correlated with response. Thus, measuring tumor perfusion changes shortly after treatment with VEGF inhibitors, or possibly other anti-angiogenic therapies, may be useful to predict treatment efficacy. PMID:23238831

  2. Long-Term Incidence and Predicting Factors of Cranioplasty Infection after Decompressive Craniectomy

    PubMed Central

    Im, Sang-Hyuk; Han, Young-Min; Kim, Jong-Tae; Chung, Dong Sup; Park, Young Sup

    2012-01-01

    Objective The predictors of cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy have not yet been fully characterized. The objective of the current study was to compare the long-term incidences of surgical site infection according to the graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy, and to determine the associated factors of cranioplasty infection. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess graft infection in patients who underwent cranioplasty after decompressive craniectomy between 2001 and 2011 at a single-center. From a total of 197 eligible patients, 131 patients undergoing 134 cranioplasties were assessed for event-free survival according to graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression methods were employed, with cranioplasty infection identified as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were also evaluated, including autogenous bone resorption, epidural hematoma, subdural hematoma and brain contusion. Results The median follow-up duration was 454 days (range 10 to 3900 days), during which 14 (10.7%) patients suffered cranioplasty infection. There was no significant difference between the two groups for event-free survival rate for cranioplasty infection with either a cryopreserved or artificial bone graft (p=0.074). Intergroup differences according to cranioplasty time after craniectomy were also not observed (p=0.083). Poor neurologic outcome at cranioplasty significantly affected the development of cranioplasty infection (hazard ratio 5.203, 95% CI 1.075 to 25.193, p=0.04). Conclusion Neurologic status may influence cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy. A further prospective study about predictors of cranioplasty infection including graft material and cranioplasty timing is necessary. PMID:23133731

  3. Cerebral performance category at hospital discharge predicts long-term survival of cardiac arrest survivors receiving targeted temperature management

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Cindy H.; Li, Jiaqi; Cinousis, Marisa J.; Sheak, Kelsey R.; Gaieski, David F.; Abella, Benjamin S.; Leary, Marion

    2014-01-01

    Objective Despite recent advancements in post-cardiac arrest resuscitation, the optimal measurement of post-arrest outcome remains unclear. We hypothesized that cerebral performance category (CPC) score can predict the long-term outcome of post- arrest survivors who received targeted temperature management (TTM) during their post-arrest hospital care. Design Retrospective chart review. Setting Two academic medical centers from May, 2005 to December, 2012. Patients The medical records of 2,417 out-of-hospital and in-hospital post-cardiac arrest patients were reviewed to identify 140 out of 582 survivors who received TTM. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results The CPC scores at hospital discharge were determined by three independent abstractors. The 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month survival of these patients were determined by reviewing hospital records, querying the Social Security Death Index, and follow-up telephone calls. The unadjusted long-term survival and adjusted survival association with CPC were calculated. Of the 2,417 identified cardiac arrest patients, 24.1% (582/2417) were successfully resuscitated, of whom 24.1% (140/582) received post-arrest TTM. Overall, 42.9% (60/140) were discharged with CPC 1, 27.1% (38/140) with CPC 2, 18.6% (26/140) with CPC 3, and 11.4% (16/140) with CPC 4. CPC 1 survivors had the highest long-term survival followed by CPC 2 and 3, with CPC 4 having the lowest long-term survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test). We found that CPC 3 (hazard ratio = 3.62, p < 0.05) and CPC 4 (hazard ratio = 12.73, p <0.001) remained associated with worse survival after adjusting for age, gender, race, shockable rhythm, time to TTM initiation, total duration of resuscitation, withdrawal of care, and location of arrest. Conclusion Patients with different CPC scores at discharge have significantly different survival trajectories. Favorable CPC at hospital discharge predicts better long-term outcomes of cardiac arrest survivors who received TTM

  4. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with carpets that are not new, (2) calculate the time-dependent VOC distributions in a test chamber or room, and (3) consider the temperature effect on VOC emissions. Based on small-scale chamber data, both models were used to examine the VOC emissions under different temperatures from polypropene styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) bitumen-backed carpet. The short-term predictions show that the VOC emissions under different temperatures can be modeled solely by changing the carpet diffusion coefficients. A formulation of the Arrhenius relation was used to correlate the dependence of carpet diffusion coefficient with temperature. The long-term predictions show that it would take several years to bake out the VOCs, and temperature would have a major impact on the bake-out time.

  5. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    SciTech Connect

    Wicks, G G

    2001-03-28

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  6. Long-term prediction of the Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Bookhagen, Bodo; Kurths, Juergen

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here, we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions - tipping elements of the monsoon - and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis, but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset two weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El-Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  7. Methodology for predicting long-term fuel-cell performance from short-term testing. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, D.; Farooque, M.; Maru, H.; Ware, C.

    1981-08-01

    The objective of this program was to develop a methodology for predicting long-term fuel cell performance from short-term testing, utilizing a perturbation testing technique. The technique applies small changes of predetermined levels in a predetermined sequence to the operating variables such that the decay mechanisms are not altered. This technique was tested on the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC), because this technology is approaching a mature stage. The initial series of perturbation tests appear to be reasonably successful and a methodology is now available for further refinements. The progress made during the study is detailed.

  8. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    The properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally in simulated space environments in order to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. Graphite-epoxy composites were exposed to thermal cycling. Adhesive foam tapes were subjected to a vacuum environment. Metal-matrix composites were tested for baseline data. Predictive modeling designed to include strength and aging effects on composites, polymeric films, and metals under such space conditions (including the atomic oxygen environment) is discussed. The Korel 8031-00 high strength adhesive foam tape was shown to be superior to the other two tested.

  9. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

  10. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  11. Long-Term Predictive and Construct Validity of Two Traditional Predictors of Law School Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Donald E.

    1982-01-01

    The relative contribution of undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) and the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) to predicting academic performance in each of three years of law school was investigated. The LSAT makes its greatest contribution in early years and UGPA in later years. (Author/BW)

  12. The Effects of Demography and Long-Term Selection on the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction with Sequence Data

    PubMed Central

    MacLeod, Iona M.; Hayes, Ben J.; Goddard, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as “genomic selection” in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (Ne) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized Ne with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large Ne, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing Ne population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction. PMID:25233989

  13. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater.

    PubMed

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb(2+)) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV=ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb(2+), considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+)) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca(2+) for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV=250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers. PMID:25863218

  14. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome. PMID:27418297

  15. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb2 +) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV = ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb2+, considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, and K+) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca2 + for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV = 250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  16. Planetary Space Weather: Long term prediction based on observations of hidden sunspot development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, W.; Quémerais, E.; Kyrölä, E.

    2014-04-01

    Space weather phenomena at the Earth or other planets are caused by activities on the solar surface. These are accompanied by intensified Lyman alpha radiation which can be used to monitor active solar regions even when they move behind the Sun as seen from Earth. Using the Lyman alpha mapper SWAN on SOHO one can follow the development of these active regions and thereby predict their state long before they re-appear around the limb of the Sun. This information can be used to prepare for possible adverse effects on infrastructures up to 15 days before the solar wind particles start interacting with the near-Earth environment. In a similar way the space weather situation can be predicted for the environment around other planets in the Solar system.

  17. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  18. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  19. Endothelial Progenitor Cells Predict Long-Term Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Leu, Jyh-Gang; Liu, Wen-Chih; Zheng, Cai-Mei; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: The endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) dysfunction is a critical event in the initiation of atherosclerotic plaque development and the level of circulating EPCs can be considered a biomarker of cardiovascular events. The level and functional change in EPCs has been investigated in hemodialysis patients, but the effect of absolute number of EPCs on risk of death has not yet been explored. We hypothesized that the number of EPCs predicted death from cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients. Methods: We evaluate the association between endothelial progenitor cells and clinical outcome in 154 patients on maintenance hemodialysis. The blood sample was drawn at the time of patient enrollment and EPCs were identified by flow cytometry using triple staining for CD34/CD133/KDR. Results: The median duration of follow-up was 4.19 years. There were 79 (51.3%) deaths during the follow-up period, 41 of whom died due to a confirmed cardiovascular cause. The cumulative survival was greater in the high-EPC group than the low-EPC group for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Decreased EPCs levels were associated with a significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, gender, current smokers, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension. Conclusions: The level of circulating EPCs independently predicts the clinical outcome in patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Thus, the EPCs levels may be a useful predictive tool for evaluating the risk of death in maintenance hemodialysis patients. PMID:26941585

  20. Oxidative stress predicts long-term resight probability and reproductive success in Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea).

    PubMed

    Costantini, David; Dell'Omo, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A major challenge in conservation physiology is to find out biomarkers that reliably reflect individual variation in wear and tear. Recent work has suggested that biomarkers of oxidative stress may provide an additional tool to assess the health state of individuals and to predict fitness perspectives. In this study, we assessed whether three biomarkers of plasma oxidative status predicted the following factors: (i) the resight probability as breeder in the next seasons; and (ii) the cumulative reproductive output over multiple years in Scopoli's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) using a 7 year individual-based data set. Our results show that shearwaters having higher levels of a marker of oxidative damage (reactive oxygen metabolites) in 2008 had a lower resight probability in the next years and a lower number of chicks raised from 2008 to 2014. In contrast, two biomarkers of antioxidant defences (non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity of plasma and thiols) did not have any predictive value. Increased concentrations of plasma reactive oxygen metabolites, together with the significant individual repeatability over time in this metric of oxidative stress found in numerous studies, suggest that this metric might serve as a blood-derived biomarker for health and fitness perspectives in birds and, possibly, also in other taxa. PMID:27293709

  1. Oxidative stress predicts long-term resight probability and reproductive success in Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea)

    PubMed Central

    Costantini, David; Dell'Omo, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A major challenge in conservation physiology is to find out biomarkers that reliably reflect individual variation in wear and tear. Recent work has suggested that biomarkers of oxidative stress may provide an additional tool to assess the health state of individuals and to predict fitness perspectives. In this study, we assessed whether three biomarkers of plasma oxidative status predicted the following factors: (i) the resight probability as breeder in the next seasons; and (ii) the cumulative reproductive output over multiple years in Scopoli’s shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) using a 7 year individual-based data set. Our results show that shearwaters having higher levels of a marker of oxidative damage (reactive oxygen metabolites) in 2008 had a lower resight probability in the next years and a lower number of chicks raised from 2008 to 2014. In contrast, two biomarkers of antioxidant defences (non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity of plasma and thiols) did not have any predictive value. Increased concentrations of plasma reactive oxygen metabolites, together with the significant individual repeatability over time in this metric of oxidative stress found in numerous studies, suggest that this metric might serve as a blood-derived biomarker for health and fitness perspectives in birds and, possibly, also in other taxa. PMID:27293709

  2. Long term prediction of roll phase for an undisturbed spinning spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, M. A.; Dyer, J. W.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the attitude control of the Pioneer 10 spacecraft since the loss of the sun-sensor signal in late 1983. It is necessary to control the attitude of the spin-stablized spacecraft so as to maintain communications with earth. Roll phase is calculated on earth using data from a science instrument on-board Pioneer 10, the imaging-photopolarimeter, which, along with its other functions, was designed to collect images of Jupiter during encounter in 1973. With calculation of instantaneous roll phase performed only once per week, the spacecraft roll angle can be predicted more than a week ahead for timing reorientation impulses. Attitude reorientation maneuvers based on roll phase predictions have been successfully executed for several years on Pioneer 10. Of 10 maneuvers analyzed in this paper, predictions were made for as many as 10 days in the future based on a roll-phase measurements spanning only 12 days of data. The average maneuver was planned by projecting the roll phase for 3 days (22,000 spacecraft revolutions) and resulted in a maneuver execution phase error of only 11 deg.

  3. Long-term Creep Behavior (1928-2002) of the Hayward Fault at Depth in the Claremont Water Tunnel, Berkeley, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cain, W. J.; Hampton, J. L.

    2003-12-01

    The Claremont Tunnel, a nine foot horseshoe shaped water tunnel conveying up to 175 million gallons per day (mgd) of treated drinking water to 800,000 residents on the east side of San Francisco Bay, crosses the Hayward Fault approximately 850 feet from the west portal of the tunnel. Creep along the fault has offset the tunnel at a depth of about 130 feet below the ground surface. Completed in 1928, the tunnel has undergone two inspections (1966 and 2002) in which detailed survey measurements have been made of the creep movements of the fault. There have been few opportunities to secure creep measurements below the ground surface. This paper will present the results of the two surveys showing the creep that has occurred at a depth of 130 feet and give time-based creep rates based on survey measurements. It will compare these measured creep rates with the tectonic creep model developed by NOAA. Due to the large time interval between the two surveys, surveying technology has dramatically changed. A discussion of the techniques used in each survey will be presented with discussions of how current technology compares with historical methods and what impact this has on the results.

  4. Prediction of long-term radiation kinetics of transmission spectra of commerical optical glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusarov, Andrei I.; Doyle, Dominic B.; Fruit, Michel; Kinet, Damien P.

    2002-09-01

    We analyze the applicability of a number of exponent-type phenomenological kinetics for transmission degradation prediction in commercial optical glasses during and after irradiation. The analysis is based on post-radiation transmission measurements over a 5 years time interval of a commercial boro-silicate glass (BK7, Schott). A conclusion is drawn that the choice should be made between the stretched-exponential and the multi-exponential functions. We apply those kinetics to simulate kinetics of BK7 glass transmission spectra subject to Co60 gamma-radiation in the framework of the previously developed phenomenological model. Calculated transmission spectra agree well with our experimental data.

  5. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on non metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    Predictive modeling of environmental conditions on nonmetallic materials was studied. The in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with carbon and osmium, the laboratory and in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with polymeric films and the effect of electron irradiation on the rates of oxidation are discussed. No information is found that can be used to model such effects on composites. The effects of the space environment on thermal control coatings and its effect on the space station are examined.

  6. Evaluation and prediction of long term space environmental effects on non-metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepic, J. A.

    1980-01-01

    The effects of prolonged spacecraft materials were determined and the results compared with predicted behavior. The adhesion and dielectric properties of poly-thermaleze and therm-amid magnet wire insulation were studied. The tensile properties of Lexan, polyurethane, polyethelyne, lucite, and nylon were studied well as the flexure and tensile characteristic of Adlock 851, a phenolic laminate. The volume resistivity of Cho-seal, a conductive elastomer was also a examined. Tables show the time exposed at thermal vacuum, and the high, low, and average MPA and KSI.

  7. Predicting long-term disability in low back injured workers presenting to a spine consultant.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, T R; Spratt, K F; Lehmann, K K

    1993-06-15

    Low back pain (LBP) is the most common, costly, and disabling musculoskeletal condition. Although most LBP patients recover within two months, 2-3% eventually develop disabling chronic low back pain (DCLBP). Due to the prevalence of DCLBP problems, models have been developed to predict which acute low back pain patients are predisposed to the problems associated with this condition. Many see the development of these models as a first step that must be taken before useful approaches for containing and reducing the problem can be conceptualized, implemented, and tested. A recent publication by Cats-Baril and Frymoyer considered this specific problem. While the results of their study indicate considerable success in predicting DCLBP patients, the high prediction rates they obtained may be spurious because of the characteristics of their sampled patient population in conjunction with some of the predictors they found useful in identifying DCLBP patients. The purpose of the present study was to focus on the crucial patient population (i.e., acute LBP patients who perceive their problem as work-related and who have been unable to work for more than two but less than six weeks), and evaluate the ability of various personal, medical, occupational, and psychological factors to predict predisposition to DCLBP. Fifty-five patients referred by occupational physicians were evaluated and followed successfully for at least 6 months. Patients in the study were given a physical examination that included Spratt et al's assessment of pain behavior. They were then asked to fill out an extensive battery of self-report questionnaires, addressing issues associated with personal demographics, health history, work requirements, job satisfaction, injury information, and pain/function factors. At the 6-month follow-up, a structured telephone interview was used to obtain outcome information regarding patient status, including ability to return to work and general outcomes of treatment

  8. Significance of certain rustler aquifer parameters for predicting long-term radiation doses from WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Wofsy, C

    1980-09-01

    This report considers some aspects of the radionuclide transport modeling presented in documents published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) regarding the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) nuclear waste repository proposed for development in Southeastern New Mexico. The radionuclide transport modeling is used to predict worst possible consequences of a WIPP repository breach event in which waste enters groundwater. The aim of this report is to determine whether plausible changes in the parameters used by DOE to describe the flow of groundwater near the WIPP site could result in: (a) significantly faster radionuclide movement in groundwater; and (b) significantly higher concentrations of radionuclides in Pecos River water and correspondingly higher radiation doses than predicted by DOE. The conclusion reached is that while plausible changes in hydrologic conditions and waste-rock interactions might result in a significant reduction in the time it takes for radionuclides to reach the Pecos River, the shorter travel times do not result in significant increases in the estimated concentrations of radionuclides in the Pecos River nor in the radiation doses associated with the use of such water. Other ways in which parameter changes might affect these concentrations and doses are mentioned in the Conclusions section of the report, but are not the subject of this analysis.

  9. Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koivisto, Juha; Ovaska, Markus; Miksic, Amandine; Laurson, Lasse; Alava, Mikko J.

    2016-08-01

    Materials flow—under creep or constant loads—and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability.

  10. Computer program for predicting creep behavior of bodies of revolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, R.; Greenbaum, G.

    1971-01-01

    Computer program, CRAB, uses finite-element method to calculate creep behavior and predict steady-state stresses in an arbitrary body of revolution subjected to a time-dependent axisymmetric load. Creep strains follow a time hardening law and a Prandtl-Reuss stress-strain relationship.

  11. The Ozone Hole - from today's observations to long-term predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Hobe, M.; Reconcile Science Team

    2010-12-01

    The effects of the Montreal Protocol will very likely result in ozone recovery during the next few decades. In the long run, climate change and possible geoengineering ventures to mitigate climate change may radically alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to these changes and the future evolution of Arctic ozone, a complete and correct representation of all relevant processes is necessary. Using a comprehensive approach of laboratory experiments, field observations, microphysical and chemical transport modeling as well as data assimilation, the EU project RECONCILE aims to produce reliable parameterizations of the key processes in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion and bridge them to a large scale chemistry climate model (CCM). We will present a compact overview of the project activities and the highlights of the extensive field campaign with the high-flying aircraft M55-Geophysica from Kiruna, Sweden, in the cold Arctic winter 2009/10.

  12. Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, Kenneth J.

    2001-01-01

    Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss

  13. From Gaged to Ungaged- Predicting Long-term Environmental Flows, and Ecosystems Responses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, A.; Adams, S. K.; Stein, E. D.; Mazor, R.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Modern management needs, such as water supply, quality, and ecosystem protection place numerous demands on instream flows. Many regions are interested in developing numeric flow criteria as a way of ensuring maintenance of flow patterns that protect biological resources while meeting other demands. Developing flow criteria requires the capacity to generate reliable time series of the daily flow at any stream reach of interest and to relate flow patterns to biological indicators of stream health. Most stream reaches are not gaged, and it is impractical to develop detailed models for all reaches where flow alteration needs to be evaluated. We present a novel mechanistic approach to efficiently predict flows and flow alteration at all ungaged stream locations within a region of interest. We used an "ensemble approach" whereby a series of regionally representative models were developed and calibrated. New sites of interest are assigned to one of the ensemble models based on similarity of catchment properties. For southern California, we selected 43 gaged sites representing the range of geomorphology, and watershed characteristics of streams in the region. For each gaged site, we developed a hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) to predict daily flows for a period representing dry, wet and normal precipitation. The final goal is to relate flow alterations to ecological responses, the models were calibrated to three separate performance metrics that reflect conditions important for instream biological communities- proportion of low flow days, flashiness and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for overall model performance. We cross-validated the models using a "jack-knife" approach. Models were assigned to novel 840 bioassessment sites based on the results of a Random Forest model that identified catchment properties that most affected the runoff patterns. Daily flow data for existing and "reference conditions" was simulated for a 23-year period for current and reference (undeveloped

  14. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  15. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    PubMed

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  16. Prediction at long-term condyle screw fixation of temporomandibular joint implant: A numerical study.

    PubMed

    Ramos, A; Duarte, R J; Mesnard, M

    2015-05-01

    The fixation of commercial temporomandibular joint (TMJ) implant is accomplished by using screws, which, in some cases, can lead to loosening of the implant. The aim of this study was to predict the evolution of fixation success of a TMJ. Numerical models using a Christensen TMJ implant were developed to analyze strain distributions in the adjacent mandibular bone. The geometry of a human mandible was developed based on computed tomography (CT) scans from a cadaveric mandible on which a TMJ implant was subsequently placed. In this study, the five most important muscle forces acting were applied and the anatomical conditions replicated. The evolution of fixation was defined according to bone response methodology focused in strain distribution around the screws. Strain and micromotions were analyzed to evaluate implant stability, and the evolution process conduct at three different stages: start with all nine screws in place (initial stage); middle stage, with three screws removed (middle stage), and end stage, with only three screws in place (final stage). With regard to loosening, the implant success fixation changed the strains in the bone between 21% and 30%, when considering the last stage. The most important screw positions were #1, #7, and #9. It was observed that, despite the commercial Christensen TMJ implant providing nine screw positions for fixation, only three screws were necessary to ensure implant stability and fixation success. PMID:25819477

  17. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    PubMed

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  18. Do prostatic biopsies 12 months or more after external irradiation for adenocarcinoma, stage III, predict long-term survival

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, J.D.; Kline, R.W.

    1983-03-01

    Serial biopsies of the prostate after high dose external irradiation for adenocarcinoma show a gradual disappearance of the neoplastic cells. With such treatment, results of the biopsies do not have any short term prognostic significance. However, positive biopsies 12 months or more after treatment are reputed to be an unfavorable sign for long-term survival. From August, 1970 through February, 1974, 45 consecutive patients with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the prostate underwent external irradiation with 2 MV X rays or cobalt-60 teletherapy. The center of the prostate received a total dose of 70 Gy in 30-37 fractions in 43 to 56 days. With a median follow-up of 8 years, the actuarial survival rates, uncorrected for death from intercurrent disease, are 69% at 5 years and 49% at 10 years. Biopsies of the prostate 12 months or more after treatment were available from 31 patients; 19 had one or more positive biopsies. Prostatic biopsies obtained 24 months or more after treatment were available from 21 patients: 10 had positive and 11 had negative biopsies; the survival curves are identical for those with and without residual cancer cells. Following adequate irradiation of patients with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the prostate, the results of biopsies obtained one or two years after treatment do not predict long-term survival.

  19. Predictions of Long-Term Radionuclide Transport at Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, D. M.; Parashar, R.; Pohlmann, K. F.; LaBolle, E. M.; Zhang, Y.; Russell, C. E.; Chapman, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    Rainier Mesa, a tuffaceous plateau on the Nevada National Security Site, has been the location of numerous subsurface nuclear tests conducted in a series of tunnel complexes located approximately 400 m below the top of the mesa and 400 m above the regional groundwater flow system. The tunnels were constructed near the middle of an 800 m Tertiary sequence of faulted, low-permeability welded and non-welded bedded, vitric, and zeolitized tuff units. Water levels from wells in the vicinity of both the N- and T-tunnel complexes indicate the presence of two saturated zones. The first saturated zone has an elevation of approximately 1800 m (300 mbgs) and is located 100 m above the T-tunnel complex. Water level measurements during well construction and borehole moisture profiles of matrix saturation suggest this upper zone of saturation extends downward through most of the Tertiary sequence, though data is not available for the lowest Tertiary units. The second saturated zone is located at an elevation of 1300 m (800 mbgs) within a thrust sheet of Paleozoic carbonates and may be hydraulically connected to the Death Valley regional flow system. This study evaluates the potential for downward radionuclide transport associated with six underground tests at the T-tunnel complex over a 1000 year period. A dual-permeability (DKM) model containing spatially discontinuous fault networks within low-permeability tuff units is utilized to simulate complex patterns of variably-saturated flow. A modified random walk particle tracking code for DKM velocity fields is then used to compute radionuclide breakthrough at the regional water table (second saturated zone). Results include calibration of a variably-saturated model to field observations including water discharge history at the tunnel portal, variably-saturated fault fields, water levels in perched intervals and differential saturations in the volcanics and carbonates; and predictions of radionuclide breakthrough at the regional

  20. Model-based prediction of the acute and long-term safety profile of naproxen in rats

    PubMed Central

    Sahota, Tarjinder; Sanderson, Ian; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose Despite the increasing importance of biomarkers as predictors of drug effects, toxicology protocols continue to rely on the experimental evidence of adverse events (AEs) as a basis for establishing the link between indicators of safety and drug exposure. Furthermore, biomarkers may facilitate the translation of findings from animals to humans. Combined with a model-based approach, biomarker data have the potential to predict long-term effects arising from prolonged drug exposure. Here, we used naproxen as a paradigm to explore the feasibility of a biomarker-guided approach for the prediction of long-term AEs in humans. Experimental Approach An experimental toxicology protocol was set up for evaluating the effects of naproxen in rats, in which four active doses were tested (7.5, 15, 40 and 80 mg·kg−1). In addition to AE monitoring and histology, a few blood samples were also collected for the assessment of drug exposure, TXB2 and PGE2 levels. Non-linear mixed effects modelling was used to analyse the data and identify covariate factors on the incidence and severity of AEs. Key Results Modelling results showed that besides drug exposure, maximum PGE2 inhibition and treatment duration were also predictors of gastrointestinal ulceration. Although PGE2 levels were clearly linked to the incidence rates, it appeared that ulceration severity is better predicted by measures of drug exposure. Conclusions and Implications These results show that the use of a model-based approach provides the opportunity to integrate pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and toxicity data, enabling optimization of the design, analysis and interpretation of toxicology experiments. PMID:25884765

  1. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy. Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer. We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups. Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212–1.869, P <0.001), old age, male sex, high body mass index, medical comorbidity, total gastrectomy, and combined resection to be independent predictors of postoperative complications. Among these, only low PNI (OR = 4.279, 95% CI = 1.760–10.404, P = 0.001) and medical comorbidity were independent predictors of postoperative mortality. For long-term outcomes, low PNI was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival, but not recurrence (overall survival: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.221–1.568, P < 0.001; recurrence-free survival: HR = 1.142, 95% CI = 0.985–1.325, P = 0.078). PNI can be used to predict patients at increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although PNI was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival, the index was not associated with cancer recurrence. PMID:27149460

  2. Simple Model Representations of Transport in a Complex Fracture and Their Effects on Long-Term Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Doughty, Christine; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Doughty, Christine; Uchida, Masahiro

    2007-11-07

    simple models can be calibrated to reproduce the peak arrival time and height of the complex-fracture-model BTCs, but the overall match remains quite poor. Using simple models with short-term SC-calibrated parameters for long-term calculations causes order-of-magnitude errors in tracer BTCs: peak arrival time is 10-100 times too late, and peak height is 50-300 times too small. On the other hand, using simple models with laboratory-measured properties of unfractured rock samples for 10,000-year calculations results in peak arrivals and heights up to a factor of 50 too early and large, respectively. The actual magnitudes of the errors made by using the simple models depend on the parameter values assumed for the complex fracture model, but in general, simple models are not expected to provide reliable long-term predictions. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how to improve long-term prediction calculations.

  3. Use of Authentic, Integrated Dental Implant Components Vital to Predictability and Successful Long-Term Clinical Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hurson, Steve

    2016-07-01

    The accepted requirements for achieving long-term maintenance and performance of implant treatments include properly matched implant system components, a precise fit and connection between the abutment and implant, and appropriate preload. Satisfying these requisites can be predictably achieved when authentic and suitably compatible components that are engineered and marketed as an integrated implant system are placed. To the contrary, intermixing third-party or aftermarket implant components could result in unpredictable sequelae that negatively affect implant treatment outcomes. Because implant manufacturers strive to balance and integrate all aspects of implant system design (eg, abutment, implant, connections), dentists should understand how and why individual implant component characteristics (eg, fatigue strength, fracture resistance) affect the strength and integrity of the overall implant complex. PMID:27548397

  4. Cross-regional prediction of long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Buttle, Jim; Carey, Sean K.; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Shanley, Jamie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2012-09-01

    There is no scientific consensus about how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters is regulated. Here we combine recent literature data from 49 catchments with detailed stream and catchment process information from nine well established research catchments at mid- to high latitudes to examine the question of how climate controls stream water DOC. We show for the first time that mean annual temperature (MAT) in the range from -3° to +10° C has a strong control over the regional stream water DOC concentration in catchments, with highest concentrations in areas ranging between 0° and +3° C MAT. Although relatively large deviations from this model occur for individual streams, catchment topography appears to explain much of this divergence. These findings suggest that the long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change may be more predictable than previously thought.

  5. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive-compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access - prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  6. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  7. D-dimer for prediction of long-term outcome in cryptogenic stroke patients with patent foramen ovale.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Dae; Song, Dongbeom; Nam, Hyo Suk; Lee, Kijeong; Yoo, Joonsang; Hong, Geu-Ru; Lee, Hye Sun; Nam, Chung Mo; Heo, Ji Hoe

    2015-08-31

    Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a potential cause of cryptogenic stroke, given the possibility of paradoxical embolism from venous to systemic circulation. D-dimer level is used to screen venous thrombosis. We investigated the risk of embolism and mortality according to the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke patients. A total of 570 first-ever cryptogenic stroke patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography were included in this study. D-dimer was assessed using latex agglutination assay during admission. The association of long-term outcomes with the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels was investigated. PFO was detected in 241 patients (42.3 %). During a mean 34.0 ± 22.8 months of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 58 (10.2 %) patients, ischaemic stroke in 33 (5.8 %), and pulmonary thromboembolism in 6 (1.1 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was an independent predictor for recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with PFO (hazard ratio 5.341, 95 % confidence interval 1.648-17.309, p=0.005), but not in those without PFO. However, in patients without PFO, a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was independently related with all-cause mortality. The risk of pulmonary thromboembolism tended to be high in patients with high D-dimer levels, regardless of PFO. Elevated D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke were predictive of the long-term outcome, which differed according to the presence of PFO. The coexistence of PFO and a high D-dimer level increased the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke. The D-dimer test in cryptogenic stroke patients may be useful for predicting outcomes and deciding treatment strategy. PMID:25994249

  8. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-05-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  9. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-07-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  10. Creep-rupture behavior of candidate Stirling engine alloys after long-term aging at 760 deg C in low-pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Titran, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    Nine candidate Stirling automotive engine alloys were aged at 760 C for 3500 hr in low pressure hydrogen or argon to determine the resulting effects on mechanical behavior. Candidate heater head tube alloys were CG-27, W545, 12RN72, INCONEL-718, and HS-188 while candidate cast cylinder-regenerator housing alloys were SA-F11, CRM-6D, XF-818, and HS-31. Aging per se is detrimental to the creep rupture and tensile strengths of the iron base alloys. The presence of hydrogen does not significantly contribute to strength degradation. Based percent highway driving cycle; CG-27 has adequate 3500 hr - 870 C creep rupture strength and SA-Fll, CRM-6D, and XF-818 have adequate 3500 hr - 775 C creep rupture strength.

  11. Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

    PubMed

    Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test. PMID:27536535

  12. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury. PMID:16903128

  13. Technique for selecting the functions of the constitutive equations of creep and long-term strength with one scalar damage parameter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsov, E. B.; Leonov, S. S.

    2016-03-01

    The strain-strength characteristics of aerostructures made of hardening materials under uniaxial tension in creep conditions are determined. The problem is reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations of the kinetic theory of creep with one scalar damage parameter. The approximate solutions of the problem are obtained with the help of the implicit Euler method and of the arc length method in combination with the explicit methods of the Runge-Kutta family for cylindrical St.45 steel samples and 3V titanium alloy plates.

  14. Change in high-temperature strength properties of 12Kh1MF steel in long-term loading under creep conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shron, R.Z.; Mints, I.I.; Shul`gina, N.G.

    1995-01-01

    Stress-rupture strength tests were made of metal steam pipe (12Kh1MF steel) in various conditions, the original, after aging under laboratory conditions (580{degrees}C, 10,000 h), and after long service. It was shown that the more the steel is hardened by heat treatment or cold plastic working in the original condition, the less it hardens in creep. It was established that softening in creep of steel with a moderate yield strength is caused primarily by aging and with a high yield strength by pore formation.

  15. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction, and implementation. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1997-09-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used to treat volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make biofilters ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity and the ability to regenerate biofilter activity. As part of this effort, the authors will provide a deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and will extend this engineering approach and developed mathematical models to two additional systems of high-priority environmental management (EM) relevance-direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and TCE (trichioroethylene), respectively. Preliminary results indicate that the author can control overgrowth of the biofilm while sustaining high degradation rates and develop basic predictive models that elucidate mass transfer and kinetic limitations in this system for alkanes. The alkanes are degraded into CO, and waterwith minimal biomass (due to the methodology proposed). This system will be used to test and model additional supplemental nutrient feeding strategies as well as methods to increase the fundamental driving forces by modification of the system. Models will be extended to non-steady-state, long-term operation. The author will examine the nature of the mixed microbial community in the VOC-degrading biofilm and test for new degradative activities. He will use cosolvents with surfactant properties to enhance hydrocarbon solubility in the biofilm and evaluate their impact on mass transfer and reaction rate in an

  16. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    PubMed

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  17. Predicting plant uptake and toxicity of lead (Pb) in long-term contaminated soils from derived transfer functions.

    PubMed

    Kader, Mohammed; Lamb, Dane T; Mahbub, Khandaker Rayhan; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2016-08-01

    Regulatory assessment of lead (Pb) in contaminated soils is still expressed primarily as total Pb concentrations in soil. In this study, we estimated effective concentrations (ECx) of Pb to Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber) focusing primarily on pore-water Pb data from 10 different soils after 12 weeks ageing. Phytotoxicity expressed in terms of Pb(2+) was observed to occur in the nanomolar range in neutral to alkaline soils (EC50 values 90 to 853 nM) and micromolar levels for acidic soils (EC50 values 7.35 to 9.66 μM). Internal Pb concentrations relating to toxicity (PT50) in roots and shoots also decreased with increasing pore-water pH (R (2) = 0.52 to 0.53). From a series of dose-response studies, we developed transfer functions predicting Pb uptake in C. sativa and we validated these functions with long-term Pb contaminated soils. The significant independent parameters were pore-water Pb(2+) and dissolved Pb plus dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The observed RMSE for the Pb-DOC model and Pb(2+) were 2.6 and 8.8, respectively. The Pb-DOC model tended to under-predict Pb, whilst Pb(2+) tended to over-predict accumulation despite reasonable RMSE values. Further validation is needed in soils with higher pore-water Pb solubility. PMID:27117154

  18. Long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity daily time series using singular spectrum analysis and fuzzy descriptor models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirmomeni, M.; Kamaliha, E.; Shafiee, M.; Lucas, C.

    2009-09-01

    Of the various conditions that affect space weather, Sun-driven phenomena are the most dominant. Cyclic solar activity has a significant effect on the Earth, its climate, satellites, and space missions. In recent years, space weather hazards have become a major area of investigation, especially due to the advent of satellite technology. As such, the design of reliable alerting and warning systems is of utmost importance, and international collaboration is needed to develop accurate short-term and long-term prediction methodologies. Several methods have been proposed and implemented for the prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices, but problems in predicting the exact time and magnitude of such catastrophic events still remain. There are, however, descriptor systems that describe a wider class of systems, including physical models and non-dynamic constraints. It is well known that the descriptor system is much tighter than the state-space expression for representing real independent parametric perturbations. In addition, the fuzzy descriptor models as a generalization of the locally linear neurofuzzy models are general forms that can be trained by constructive intuitive learning algorithms. Here, we propose a combined model based on fuzzy descriptor models and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) (FD/SSA) to forecast a number of geomagnetic activity indices in a manner that optimizes a fuzzy descriptor model for each of the principal components obtained from singular spectrum analysis and recombines the predicted values so as to transform the geomagnetic activity time series into natural chaotic phenomena. The method has been applied to predict two solar and geomagnetic activity indices: geomagnetic aa and solar wind speed (SWS) of the solar wind index. The results demonstrate the higher power of the proposed method-- compared to other methods -- for predicting solar activity.

  19. Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2013-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

  20. Predicting Short-term Mortality and Long-term Survival of Hospitalized U.S. Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A.; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W.; Shah, Jessica P.

    2014-01-01

    Background No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short- and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a U.S. population. Methods We reviewed electronic records for patients with ALD admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the prior DF threshold of > 32. Admission and theoretical peak scores using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were calculated. Analysis models compared 5 different scoring systems. Results INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r2 = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of data showed that survival at 28 days was significantly associated with admission values for white blood cell count (p = 0.006), a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status and creatinine (p < 0.001) as well as an elevated ammonia result within 2 days of admission (p = 0.006). When peak values for MELD were included, they were the most significant predictor of short-term mortality (p < 0.001) followed by INRdf (p = 0.006 Conclusion On admission, 2 scoring systems that identify a subset of patients with severe alcoholic liver disease are able to predict > 50% mortality at 4 weeks as well as > 80% mortality at 6 months without specific treatment. PMID:24445730

  1. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  2. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V.; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Background Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Results Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not

  3. High Content Imaging of Early Morphological Signatures Predicts Long Term Mineralization Capacity of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells upon Osteogenic Induction.

    PubMed

    Marklein, Ross A; Lo Surdo, Jessica L; Bellayr, Ian H; Godil, Saniya A; Puri, Raj K; Bauer, Steven R

    2016-04-01

    Human bone marrow-derived multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells, often referred to as mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), represent an attractive cell source for many regenerative medicine applications due to their potential for multi-lineage differentiation, immunomodulation, and paracrine factor secretion. A major complication for current MSC-based therapies is the lack of well-defined characterization methods that can robustly predict how they will perform in a particular in vitro or in vivo setting. Significant advances have been made with identifying molecular markers of MSC quality and potency using multivariate genomic and proteomic approaches, and more recently with advanced techniques incorporating high content imaging to assess high-dimensional single cell morphological data. We sought to expand upon current methods of high dimensional morphological analysis by investigating whether short term cell and nuclear morphological profiles of MSCs from multiple donors (at multiple passages) correlated with long term mineralization upon osteogenic induction. Using the combined power of automated high content imaging followed by automated image analysis, we demonstrated that MSC morphology after 3 days was highly correlated with 35 day mineralization and comparable to other methods of MSC osteogenesis assessment (such as alkaline phosphatase activity). We then expanded on this initial morphological characterization and identified morphological features that were highly predictive of mineralization capacities (>90% accuracy) of MSCs from additional donors and different manufacturing techniques using linear discriminant analysis. Together, this work thoroughly demonstrates the predictive power of MSC morphology for mineralization capacity and motivates further studies into MSC morphology as a predictive marker for additional in vitro and in vivo responses. Stem Cells 2016;34:935-947. PMID:26865267

  4. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    SciTech Connect

    Toma Cajthaml; Vaclav Sasek

    2005-11-01

    Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) with pure carbon dioxide was used to obtain desorption curves of PAHs from four contaminated industrial soils. These were from a former gas works, a former tar processing plant, a former wood presentation plant, and a former gas-holder site. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 1495 to 2439 mg/kg. The desorption curves were fitted with a simple two-site model to determine the rapidly released fraction (F) representing bioavailability of PAHs. The F data obtained under various SFE pressures were compared with degradation results of a composting method applied on the soils. After composting and consequent long-term maturation, the residual PAH contaminations ranged from 4 to 36% of the original values. A possible explanation of the result variations is the different bioavailability of the pollutants. The best correlations between degradation results and F fraction were obtained applying 50{sup o}C and 300 bar. The F values gave very good agreement with degradation efficiencies and the total regression coefficients (r{sup 2}) ranged from 0.81 to 0.99. The degradation results together with bioavailable fractions appeared to be consistent with organic carbon contents in the soils and with volatile fractions of organics. The results indicate that SFE could be a rapid test to predict bioremediation results of composting of PAH-contaminated soils. 23 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  5. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

    PubMed

    Illán, Javier Gutiérrez; Thomas, Chris D; Jones, Julia A; Wong, Weng-Keen; Shirley, Susan M; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-11-01

    Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to

  6. Creep-rupture behavior of seven iron-base alloys after long term aging at 760 deg in low pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzke, W. R.; Stephens, J. R.

    1980-01-01

    Seven candidate iron-base alloys for heater tube application in the Stirling automotive engine were aged for 3500 hours at 760 C in argon and hydrogen. Aging degraded the tensile and creep-rupture properties. The presence of hydrogen during aging caused additional degradiation of the rupture strength in fine grain alloys. Based on current design criteria for the Mod 1 Stirling engine, N-155 and 19-9DL are considered the only alloys in this study with strengths adequate for heater tube service at 760 C.

  7. 14C Cycling in Lignocellulose-Amended Soils: Predicting Long-Term C Fate from Short-Term Indicators

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, Vanessa L.; Smith, Jeffery L.; Bolton, Harvey

    2006-02-01

    The degradation of recalcitrant, abundant, naturally occurring compounds such as lignocellulose is a significant component of the global C cycle. Identifying land uses that maximize the storage of this C rather than its mineralization to CO2 will aid in recommendations to offset C emissions. Furthermore, identifying simple relationships that predict which soils are most likely to store more C will aid in C management. We compared lignocellulose degradation over 8 months in contrasting soils from each of five sites across the United States. The soils were collected from a tallgrass prairie restoration (farmland, and plots restored in 1993 and 1979), the semiarid shrub-steppe (cool, moist upper slope and warm, dry lower slope soils), long-term farmland (no-till and conventional-till), and from two forest soils (loblolly pine and Douglas fir; fertilized and non-fertilized). Soils that rapidly metabolized freshly added C exploited endogenous and newly transformed C to a lesser degree over the course of the incubation (lower slope shrub-steppe, non-fertilized Douglas fir, and tallgrass prairie farmed and 1993 restorations). We also pooled the data to find a strong relationship between sand content and lignocellulose-C remaining in the soil after 8 months (R = 0.68) and also between short-term storage of lignocellulose-C (at 7 d) and lignocellulose-C remaining after 8 months (R= 0.94). To predict C storage, models of C and soil properties must be modified to reflect microbial communities. Communities in richer soils may be more competent to use native C following fresh C additions when compared with communities in poorer soils.

  8. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  9. Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gholamhoseini, Alireza

    2016-03-01

    Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

  10. Prediction of the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy by signal averaged electrocardiography

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, T; Fukunami, M; Shimonagata, T; Kumagai, K; Kim, J; Sanada, S; Ogita, H; Hori, M; Hoki, N

    1998-01-01

    Objective—To determine whether the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy can be predicted by signal averaged electrocardiography (ECG).
Patients—31 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and without bundle branch block were included in a retrospective study and 16 in a prospective study.
Methods—A signal averaged ECG was recorded before β blocker treatment, and three variables were measured from the vector magnitude: QRS duration, root mean square voltage for the last 40 ms (RMS40), and duration of the terminal low amplitude signals (< 40 µV) (LAS40). In the retrospective study, these variables were compared among good responders (showing ⩾ 0.10 increase in ejection fraction 12 months after start of β blocker treatment) and poor responders without such improvement. The validity of the signal averaged ECG criteria for prediction of the response to β blocker treatment was examined in the prospective study.
Results—In the retrospective study, good responders (n = 16) had a shorter QRS duration (mean (SD): 122.9 (11) v 138 (14.4) ms, p < 0.005) and LAS40 (33.1 (8.9) v 42.5 (7.8) ms, p < 0.005), and a higher RMS40 (31.6 (16.3) v 19.0 (10.3) µV, p < 0.02) than poor responders (n = 15). Signal averaged ECG criteria for good response were defined as two or more of the following: QRS duration < 130 ms, RMS40 > 20 µV, LAS40 < 40 ms (sensitivity 81%, specificity 73%). In the prospective study, six of seven patients who met these criteria showed a good response to the β blocker treatment, while eight of nine who did not showed a poor response (χ2 = 6.1, p < 0.02). The signal averaged ECG criteria gave a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 89% for predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment.
Conclusions—A signal averaged ECG might be useful in predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy.

 Keywords: signal

  11. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  12. Long-Term Results and Predictive Factors of Three-Dimensional Conformal Salvage Radiotherapy for Biochemical Relapse After Prostatectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Neuhof, Dirk . E-mail: dirk.neuhof@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Hentschel, Tina; Bischof, Marc; Sroka-Perez, Gabriele; Hohenfellner, Markus; Debus, Juergen

    2007-04-01

    Purpose: Salvage radiotherapy (RT) is used to treat patients with biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy (RP). Although retrospective series have demonstrated that salvage RT will result in biochemical response in approximately 75% of patients, long-term response is much lower (20-40%). The purpose of this study was to determine prognostic factors related to the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) outcome after salvage RT. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2004, 171 patients received salvage RT at University of Heidelberg. Patient age, margin status, Gleason score, tumor grading, pathologic tumor stage, pre-RP and pre-RT PSA levels, and time from RP to rise of PSA were analyzed. Results: Median follow-up time was 39 months. The 5-year overall and clinical relapse-free survival were 93.8% and 80.8%, respectively. After RT serum PSA decreased in 141 patients (82.5%). The 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival was 35.1%. Univariate analysis showed following statistically significant predictors of PSA recurrence after RT: preoperative PSA level (p = 0.035), pathologic tumor classification (p 0.001), Gleason score (p < 0.001), tumor grading (p = 0.004), and pre-RT PSA level (p = 0.031). On multivariate analysis, only Gleason score (p = 0.047) and pre-RT PSA level (p = 0.049) were found to be independently predictive of PSA recurrence. Conclusions: This study represents one of the largest retrospective studies analyzing the outcome of patients treated with salvage RT at a single institution. Our findings suggest that patients with Gleason score <7 and low pre-RT PSA levels are the best candidates for salvage RT, whereas patients with high-grade lesions should be considered for additional treatment (e.g., hormonal therapy)

  13. Impact of spotty calcification on long-term prediction of future revascularization: a prospective three-vessel intravascular ultrasound study.

    PubMed

    Tamaru, Hiroto; Fujii, Kenichi; Fukunaga, Masashi; Imanaka, Takahiro; Miki, Kojiro; Horimatsu, Tetsuo; Nishimura, Machiko; Saita, Ten; Sumiyoshi, Akinori; Shibuya, Masahiko; Naito, Yoshiro; Masuyama, Tohru

    2016-06-01

    To date, there are no prospective studies on the relationship between plaque characteristics identified by 40 MHz IVUS and future adverse events. This prospective study evaluated the relationship between plaque morphology in nonculprit nonsignificant lesions, determined by 40 MHz IVUS, and long-term clinical outcomes. Consecutively, 45 patients who underwent 3-vessel intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) examinations were prospectively enrolled. Qualitative and quantitative IVUS analyses including scoring of echogenicity for assessment of plaque characterization were performed for each nonsignificant nonculprit lesion. The number, the length, the location (superficial or deep), and maximum arc were measured for each calcium deposit within plaques. Spotty calcification was defined as calcium deposits <90° and <6 mm in length. Primary end point was defined as nonsignificant nonculprit lesion-related revascularization (NNLR) during 6 years of follow-up. A total of 163 nonsignificant nonculprit lesions with mild to moderate stenosis were identified on baseline 3-vessel IVUS. Of those 163 lesions, six lesions required NNLR during the follow-up period. There were no differences in quantitative IVUS parameters including remodeling index, plaque burden, and echogenicity between lesions requiring and not requiring NNLR. However, deep spotty calcification was more frequently identified in lesions requiring NNLR than in those not requiring NNLR (33 vs. 8 %, P = 0.02). Spotty calcium deposits identified by 40 MHz IVUS predicted the need for NNLR during a 6-year follow-up period. This finding suggests that deep spotty calcium may be a surrogate marker for plaque progression and the subsequent need for revascularization in the future. PMID:25964072

  14. Predictive Factors for Acute and Late Urinary Toxicity After Permanent Prostate Brachytherapy: Long-Term Outcome in 712 Consecutive Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Keyes, Mira Miller, Stacy; Moravan, Veronika; Pickles, Tom; McKenzie, Michael; Pai, Howard; Liu, Mitchell; Kwan, Winkle; Agranovich, Alexander; Spadinger, Ingrid; Lapointe, Vincent; Halperin, Ross; Morris, W. James

    2009-03-15

    Purpose: To describe the frequency of acute and late Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) urinary toxicity, associated predictive factors, and resolution of International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) in 712 consecutive prostate brachytherapy patients. Methods and Materials: Patients underwent implantation between 1998 and 2003 (median follow-up, 57 months). The IPSS and RTOG toxicity data were prospectively collected. The patient, treatment, and implant factors were examined for an association with urinary toxicity. The time to IPSS resolution was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves, and multivariate modeling of IPSS resolution was done using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the factors associated with urinary toxicity. Results: The IPSS returned to baseline at a median of 12.6 months. On multivariate analysis, patients with a high baseline IPSS had a quicker resolution of their IPSS. Higher prostate D90 (dose covering 90% of the prostate), maximal postimplant IPSS, and urinary retention slowed the IPSS resolution time. The rate of the actuarial 5-year late urinary (>12 months) RTOG Grade 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 32%, 36%, 24%, 6.2%, and 0.1%, respectively. At 7 years, the prevalence of RTOG Grade 0-1 was 92.5%. Patients with a larger prostate volume, greater number of needles, greater baseline IPSS, and use of hormonal therapy had more acute toxicity. On multivariate analysis, the significant predictors for late greater than or equal to RTOG toxicity 2 were a greater baseline IPSS, maximal postimplant IPSS, presence of acute toxicity, and higher prostate V150 (volume of the prostate covered by 150% of the dose). More recently implanted patients had less acute urinary toxicity and patients given hormonal therapy had less late urinary toxicity (all p < 0.02). Conclusion: Most urinary symptoms resolved within 12 months after prostate brachytherapy, and significant long-term urinary toxicity was very low

  15. Predicting plasticity: acute context-dependent changes to vocal performance predict long-term age-dependent changes.

    PubMed

    James, Logan S; Sakata, Jon T

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the factors that predict and guide variation in behavioral change can lend insight into mechanisms of motor plasticity and individual differences in behavior. The performance of adult birdsong changes with age in a manner that is similar to rapid context-dependent changes to song. To reveal mechanisms of vocal plasticity, we analyzed the degree to which variation in the direction and magnitude of age-dependent changes to Bengalese finch song could be predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. Using a repeated-measures design, we found that variation in age-dependent changes to the timing, sequencing, and structure of vocal elements ("syllables") was significantly predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. In particular, the degree to which the duration of intersyllable gaps, syllable sequencing at branch points, and fundamental frequency of syllables within spontaneous [undirected (UD)] songs changed over time was correlated with the degree to which these features changed from UD song to female-directed (FD) song in young-adult finches (FDyoung). As such, the structure of some temporal features of UD songs converged over time onto the structure of FDyoung songs. This convergence suggested that the FDyoung song could serve as a stable target for vocal motor plasticity. Consequently, we analyzed the stability of FD song and found that the temporal structure of FD song changed significantly over time in a manner similar to UD song. Because FD song is considered a state of heightened performance, these data suggest that age-dependent changes could reflect practice-related improvements in vocal motor performance. PMID:26311186

  16. Role of Right Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain in Predicting Early and Long-Term Mortality in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Patients

    PubMed Central

    Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Széplaki, Gábor; Apor, Astrid; Kutyifa, Valentina; Kovács, Attila; Kosztin, Annamária; Becker, Dávid; Boros, András Mihály; Gellér, László; Merkely, Béla

    2015-01-01

    Background Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction has been associated with poor prognosis in chronic heart failure (HF). However, less data is available about the role of RV dysfunction in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We aimed to investigate if RV dysfunction would predict outcome in CRT. Design We enrolled prospectively ninety-three consecutive HF patients in this single center observational study. All patients underwent clinical evaluation and echocardiography before CRT and 6 months after implantation. We assessed RV geometry and function by using speckle tracking imaging and calculated strain parameters. We performed multivariable Cox regression models to test mortality at 6 months and at 24 months. Results RV dysfunction, characterized by decreased RVGLS (RV global longitudinal strain) [10.2 (7.0–12.8) vs. 19.5 (15.0–23.9) %, p<0.0001] and RVFWS (RV free wall strain) [15.6 (10.0–19.3) vs. 17.4 (10.5–22.2) %, p = 0.04], improved 6 months after CRT implantation. Increasing baseline RVGLS and RVFWS predicted survival independent of other parameters at 6 months [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.37 (0.15–0.90), p = 0.02 and HR = 0.42 (0.19–0.89), p = 0.02; per 1 standard deviation increase, respectively]. RVGLS proved to be a significant independent predictor of mortality at 24 months [HR = 0.53 (0.32–0.86), p = 0.01], and RVFWS showed a strong tendency [HR = 0.64 (0.40–1.00), p = 0.05]. The 24-month survival was significantly impaired in patients with RVGLS below 10.04% before CRT implantation [area under the curve = 0.72 (0.60–0.84), p = 0.002, log-rank p = 0.0008; HR = 5.23 (1.76–15.48), p = 0.003]. Conclusions Our findings indicate that baseline RV dysfunction is associated with poor short-term and long-term prognosis after CRT implantation. PMID:26700308

  17. Thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, and Creep: Part II. Life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neu, R. W.; Sehitoglu, Huseyin

    1989-09-01

    A life prediction model is developed for crack nucleation and early crack growth based on fatigue, environment (oxidation), and creep damage. The model handles different strain-temperature phasings (i.e., in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue, isothermal fatigue, and others, including nonproportional phasings). Fatigue life predictions compare favorably with experiments in 1070 steel for a wide range of test conditions and strain-temperature phasings. An oxide growth (oxide damage) model is based on the repeated microrupture process of oxide observed from microscopic measurements. A creep damage expression, which is stress-based, is coupled with a unified constitutive equation. A set of interrupted tests was performed to provide valuable damage progression information. Tests were performed in air and in helium atmospheres to isolate creep damage from oxidation damage.

  18. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Sexually Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity Versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fassler, I.R.; Amodeo, M.; Griffin, M.L.; Clay, C.M.; Ellis, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective:: Child sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for explanations for the heterogeneous outcomes in women with CSA has led to an examination of a range of CSA-related factors, from the severity of individual CSA incidents to the…

  19. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Physically Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffin, Margaret L.; Amodeo, Maryann

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child physical abuse (CPA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for the explanation for heterogeneous outcomes in women with CPA has led to an examination of a range of CPA-related factors, from the severity of CPA incidents to the childhood…

  20. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  1. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  2. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-01-01

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants <2 years of age because of their carcinogenic potential. We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial to evaluate the efficacy of TCIs as a secondary AD treatment for children <2 years of age by comparing 1% pimecrolimus cream with 0.05% desonide cream. We performed urinary metabolomics to predict long-term side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration. PMID:25491116

  3. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction and implementation. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1998-06-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used for treatment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make them ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity. As part of this effort, the author will provide deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and extend this approach and mathematical models to additional systems of high priority EM relevance--direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX and chlorinated organics. This report summarizes work after 2 years of a 3-year project. Major results are enumerated and discussed'

  4. Predictive factors of the long term outcome in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: six year follow up of 107 patients.

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, E; Ros, E; Toledo-Pimentel, V; Pujol, A; Bordas, J M; Grande, L; Pera, C

    1994-01-01

    There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived. PMID:8307456

  5. Field theory and diffusion creep predictions in polycrystalline aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villani, A.; Busso, E. P.; Forest, S.

    2015-07-01

    In polycrystals, stress-driven vacancy diffusion at high homologous temperatures leads to inelastic deformation. In this work, a novel continuum mechanics framework is proposed to describe the strain fields resulting from such a diffusion-driven process in a polycrystalline aggregate where grains and grain boundaries are explicitly considered. The choice of an anisotropic eigenstrain in the grain boundary region provides the driving force for the diffusive creep processes. The corresponding inelastic strain rate is shown to be related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. Dislocation driven deformation is then introduced as an additional mechanism, through standard crystal plasticity constitutive equations. The fully coupled diffusion-mechanical model is implemented into the finite element method and then used to describe the biaxial creep behaviour of FCC polycrystalline aggregates. The corresponding results revealed for the first time that such a coupled diffusion-stress approach, involving the gradient of the vacancy flux, can accurately predict the well-known macroscopic strain rate dependency on stress and grain size in the diffusion creep regime. They also predict strongly heterogeneous viscoplastic strain fields, especially close to grain boundaries triple junctions. Finally, a smooth transition from Herring and Coble to dislocation creep behaviour is predicted and compared to experimental results for copper.

  6. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis. PMID:27075918

  7. Lower serum potassium combined with lower sodium concentrations predict long-term mortality risk in hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the combined effect of different pre-hemodialysis (HD) serum sodium (S[Na]) and potassium (S[K]) concentrations on the long-term prognosis of HD patients. Methods A cohort of 424 maintenance HD patients (age: 58 ± 13 years, male: 47%, diabetes: 39%) from a single center were divided into four groups based on both medians of S[Na] (138.4 mmol/L) and S[K] (4.4 mmol/L): Group 1: lower S[Na] & lower S[K]: n = 92; Group 2: lower S[Na] & higher S[K]: n =113; Group 3: higher S[Na] & lower S[K]: n =123; Group 4: higher S[Na] & higher S[K]: n =96. The median observation period was 21 months. Result By multivariate logistic regression analysis, Group 1 was characterized by hypoalbuminemia (OR = 0.37, 95%CI = 0.20-0.67), and lower normalized protein catabolism rate (nPCR) (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.16-0.83). In contrast, Group 4 was characterized by higher nPCR (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.05-4.86) and albumin level (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.17-4.39). As compared to the reference (group 1), the HR for long-term mortality was significantly lower in Groups 3 (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.34- 0.86) and 4 (HR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.28-0.84). By multivariate Cox proportional analysis, Group 1 was an independent factor (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.18-2.58) associated with long-term mortality. Conclusion HD patients combined with lower S[K] and lower S[Na] were characterized by hypoalbuminemia, lower nPCR and a high prevalence of co-morbidity. They were associated with long-term mortality risk. On the other hand, those patients with higher levels of S[Na] and S[K] tended to have better clinical outcomes. PMID:24305468

  8. Elevated Cardiac Troponin in Acute Stroke without Acute Coronary Syndrome Predicts Long-Term Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Bhatt, Reema; Bove, Alfred A.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Elevated cardiac troponin in acute stroke in absence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has unclear long-term outcomes. Methods. Retrospective analysis of 566 patients admitted to Temple University Hospital from 2008 to 2010 for acute stroke was performed. Patients were included if cardiac troponin I was measured and had no evidence of ACS and an echocardiogram was performed. Of 200 patients who met the criteria, baseline characteristics, electrocardiograms, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were reviewed. Patients were characterized into two groups with normal and elevated troponins. Primary end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction during follow-up period after discharge. The secondary end points were MACE and death from any cause. Results. For 200 patients, 17 patients had positive troponins. Baseline characteristics were as follows: age 63.1 ± 13.8, 64% African Americans, 78% with hypertension, and 22% with previous CVA. During mean follow-up of 20.1 months, 7 patients (41.2%) in elevated troponin and 6 (3.3%) patients in normal troponin group had nonfatal myocardial infarction (P = 0.0001). MACE (41.2% versus 14.2%, P = 0.01) and death from any cause (41.2% versus 14.5%, P = 0.017) were significant in the positive troponin group. Conclusions. Elevated cardiac troponin in patients with acute stroke and no evidence of ACS is strong predictor of long-term cardiac outcomes. PMID:25530906

  9. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  10. Prediction of successful outcome in a randomised controlled trial of the long-term efficacy of interferon alpha treatment for chronic hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Vandelli, C; Renzo, F; Braun, H B; Tisminetzky, S; Albrecht, M; De Palma, M; Ranzi, A; Di Marco, G; Stroffolini, T; Baralle, F; Ventura, E; Michel, G

    1999-05-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of a 12-month course of recombinant interferon alpha (IFN-alpha2b), and to assess predictive factors of successful response to IFN therapy in chronic active hepatitis C (HCV CAH), 242 patients with histologically proven HCV CAH were assigned randomly to two groups, one treated with IFN-alpha2b (3 MU three times weekly, intramuscularly), the other untreated. To determine the efficacy of IFN-alpha2b 12 months after therapy, a second liver biopsy was carried out on 100 treated patients and 27 untreated patients. The biochemical, virological, and serological response of patients followed up for at least 50 months after treatment was also evaluated to confirm the efficacy of IFN-alpha2b. The genotypes of infecting HCV, anti-HCV core IgM, and HCV-RNA concentrations were also analysed and the predictors of response determined by univariate and multivariate analyses. Response was defined in terms of the normalisation of aminotransferase activities and the disappearance of HCV-RNA. The overall long-term response was 39.4%. Anti-HCV core IgM levels were significantly lower in long-term responders. Patients with increased levels of IgM anti HCV core (>3.8 sample/cut-off), infected with genotype 1b were nonresponders. Liver histology improved significantly in patients with long-term response. Multivariate analysis identified three independent predictors of the likelihood of long-term response to IFN therapy: age younger than 40 years, basal anti-HCV core IgM levels < or = 3.8, and genotypes other than 1b. These data indicate that the treatment with IFN-alpha2b used in this randomised controlled trial is effective in HCV CAH. Anti-HCV core IgM was the strongest predictor of long-term response in the present study. PMID:10223542

  11. Predictive validity of the get ready to read! Screener: concurrent and long-term relations with reading-related skills.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Beth M; Lonigan, Christopher J; Wyatt, Marcy A

    2009-01-01

    This study examined concurrent and longitudinal relations for the Get Ready to Read! (GRTR) emergent literacy screener. This measure, within a battery of oral language, letter knowledge, decoding, and phonological awareness tests, was administered to 204 preschool children (mean age = 53.6, SD = 5.78; 55% male) from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds. Subgroups were reassessed at 6 months and 16 and 37 months later. Results indicate strong relations between the GRTR and the literacy and language assessments. Long-term follow-up indicated that the screener was significantly related to some reading-related measures, including decoding skills. These results support the utility of the GRTR as a brief, valid measure of children's emergent literacy skills. The GRTR holds promise as a tool useful for educators, parents, and others in regular contact with preschool children to help determine those who may be at risk for later reading difficulties and could benefit from intervention and focused instruction in emergent literacy. PMID:19074622

  12. Long-term prediction of groundwater recharge by climate changes in the Gosan agricultural area, Jeju Island of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, E. H.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluation of long-term changes in groundwater recharge due to the climate changes is needed to secure the sustainable use of grounwater. In Jeju Island, which is composed of various formations of porous volcanic rocks, groundwater is a sole resource for water supply because of its hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, preservation of the groundwater resource is an essential issue in the island. Prior to establishing a management plan for maintaining the groundwater resources in Jeju Island, long-term estimation of influencing factors are necessary. The Gosan study area is located in the western part of the island, where extensive agricultural activity has been performed and groundwater is a main source of supply for watering crops. In this study, we estimated the recharge changes for 100 years (2000~2099) in the Gosan agricultural area based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) by using the HELP3 (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) program. The estimated component of water budget in this study are as follows (averaged in 2000~2014), precipitation: 1.28x108 m3/yr; ET: 6.49x107 m3/yr; runoff: 5.84x106 m3/yr; and recharge: 5.27x107 m3/yr. Over the 100 years of the estimated period, precipitation will have a highest increase among other meteorological parameters to be 6.16x109 m3 (RCP4.5) and 6.34 x109 m3 (RCP8.5). Increase in recharge by RCP8.5 scenario (2.75 x109 m3) will be less than that by RCP4.5 (2.77x109 m3) because ET by RCP 8.5 (ET: 3.34x109 m3; runoff: 2.27x108 m3) is estimated to be higher than ET by RCP4.5 (ET: 3.15x109 m3; runoff: 2.35x108 m3). Jeju volcanic island is known to have higher recharge proportions to the precipitation due to the distributed highly porous volcanic rocks. Therefore, variations in precipitation by climate changes would greatly affect the groundwater resource of the island. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for

  13. Biochemical Response to Androgen Deprivation Therapy Before External Beam Radiation Therapy Predicts Long-term Prostate Cancer Survival Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Zelefsky, Michael J.; Gomez, Daniel R.; Polkinghorn, William R.; Pei, Xin; Kollmeier, Marisa

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the response to neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) defined by a decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to nadir values is associated with improved survival outcomes after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: One thousand forty-five patients with localized prostate cancer were treated with definitive EBRT in conjunction with neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. A 6-month course of ADT was used (3 months during the neoadjuvant phase and 2 to 3 months concurrently with EBRT). The median EBRT prescription dose was 81 Gy using a conformal-based technique. The median follow-up time was 8.5 years. Results: The 10-year PSA relapse-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 74.3%, compared with 57.7% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P<.001). The 10-year distant metastases-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 86.1%, compared with 78.6% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P=.004). In a competing-risk analysis, prostate cancer-related deaths were also significantly reduced among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of <0.3 ng/mL compared with higher values (7.8% compared with 13.7%; P=.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the pre-EBRT PSA nadir value was a significant predictor of long-term biochemical tumor control, distant metastases-free survival, and cause-specific survival outcomes. Conclusions: Pre-radiation therapy nadir PSA values of ≤0.3 ng/mL after neoadjuvant ADT were associated with improved long-term biochemical tumor control, reduction in distant metastases, and prostate cancer-related death. Patients with higher nadir values may require alternative adjuvant therapies to improve outcomes.

  14. Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long-term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Xu, Cheng-Yuan; Rastetter, Edward B; Griffin, Kevin L

    2014-06-01

    The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well-understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (RL/RD), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both RL and RD acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana, both RL and RD responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of RL and RD to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance. PMID:24677488

  15. Short term creep rupture predictions for tantalum alloy T-111

    SciTech Connect

    Stephens, J.J. )

    1991-01-01

    A knowledge of the short term creep rupture behavior of Tantalum alloy T-111 is necessary to predict device integrity in the heat source section of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) at the end of service life, in the event of a fuel fire. High pressures exist in RTGs near the end of service life, these are caused by gas generation resulting from radioactive decay of the nuclear fuel. The internal pressure exerts a significant hoop stress on the T-111 alloy structural containment member. This paper analyses the short term creep behavior (rupture times up to {similar to}2{times}10{sup 3} hrs.) of cold worked (CW) T-111 alloy, using the existing data of Stephenson (1967). Corellations for the time to rupture, time to 1% strain and minimum creep rate have been obtained from this data using multivariable linear regression analysis. These results are compared to other short term rupture data for T-111 alloy. Finally, at the stress/temperature levels relevant to the RTG fuel fire scenario near the end of service life, the rupture time correlation for T-111 alloy predicts a rupture time of approximately 100 hrs.

  16. Short term creep rupture predictions for Tantalum alloy T-3

    SciTech Connect

    Stephens, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    A knowledge of the short term creep rupture behavior of Tantalum alloy T-111 is necessary to predict device integrity in the heat source section of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG's) at the end of service life, in the event of a fuel fire. High pressures exist in RTG's near the end of service life, these are caused by gas generation resulting from radioactive decay of the nuclear fuel. The internal pressure exerts a significant hoop stress on the T-111 alloy structural containment member. This paper analyses the short term creep behavior (rupture times up to {approximately}2 {times} 10{sup 3} hrs.) of cold worked (CW) T-111 alloy, using the existing data of Stephenson (1967). Corellations for the time to rupture, time to 1% strain and minimum creep rate have been obtained from this data using multivariable linear regression analysis. These results are compared to other short term rupture data for T-111 alloy. Finally, at the stress/temperature levels relevant to the RTG fuel fire scenario near the end of service life, the rupture time correlation for T-111 alloy predicts a rupture time of approximately 100 hrs. 10 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The activities performed during the first year of the NASA HOST Program, Creep Fatigue Life Prediction for Engine Hot Section Materials (Isotropic), being conducted by Pratt & Whitney Aircraft are summarized. The program is a 5 year, two part effort aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results of the program produced thus far are discussed. Cast B1900 + Hf and wrought IN 718 were selected as the base and alternate materials, respectively. A single heat of B1900 + Hf was obtained and test specimens fabricated. The material was characterized with respect to grain size, gamma prime size, carbide distribution, and dislocation density. Monotonic tensile and creep testing has shown engineering properties within anticipated scatter for this material. Examination of the tensile tests has shown a transition from inhomogeneous planar slip within the grains at lower temperatures to more homogeneous matrix deformation. Examination of the creep tests has shown a transgranular failure mode at 1400 F and an intergranular failure mode at 1600 F and 1800 F.

  18. Acute postoperative pain predicts chronic pain and long-term analgesic requirements after breast surgery for cancer.

    PubMed

    Fassoulaki, A; Melemeni, A; Staikou, C; Triga, A; Sarantopoulos, C

    2008-01-01

    Postoperative pain and analgesic requirements may be associated with chronic pain. The aim of the study was to investigate this association. We studied 98 patients who had cancer breast surgery and served as controls in four previous studies, receiving placebo. We compared the pain and analgesic requirements 0-9 h and 1-6 days postoperatively: a) between patients with chronic pain 3 months postoperatively versus patients without and b) between those patients who consumed analgesics at home versus those who did not. Patients with chronic pain had experienced higher intensity pain at rest the first 9 postoperative hours (VAS-rest p = 0.033). Patients requiring analgesics at home had consumed postoperatively more opioids (p = 0.005) and more paracetamol (p = 0.037). These patients had experienced pain of higher intensity the first 9 postoperative hours (VAS-rest p = 0.022, VAS-movement p = 0.009) as well as during the six postoperative days (VAS-rest p = 0.013, VAS-movement p = 0.001). Higher intensities of acute postoperative pain are associated with chronic pain development. Higher analgesic needs and higher acute postoperatively pain intensity are associated with long-term analgesic consumption. PMID:19235522

  19. An alternative to fully coupled reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in complex geological systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Fully-coupled reactive transport simulations involving multiphase hydrodynamics and chemical reactions in heterogeneous settings are extremely challenging from a computational point of view. This often leads to oversimplification of the investigated system: coarse spatial discretization, to keep the number of elements in the order of few thousands; simplified chemistry, disregarding many potentially important reactions. A novel approach for coupling non-reactive hydrodynamic simulations with the outcome of single batch geochemical simulations was therefore introduced to assess the potential long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for underground CO2 storage in Germany [1],[2]. The advantage of the coupling is the ability to use multi-million grid non-reactive hydrodynamics simulations on one side and few batch 0D geochemical simulations on the other, so that the complexity of both systems does not need to be reduced. This contribution shows the approach which was taken to validate this simplified coupling scheme. The procedure involved batch simulations of the reference geochemical model, then performing both non-reactive and fully coupled 1D and 3D reactive transport simulations and finally applying the simplified coupling scheme based on the non-reactive and geochemical batch model. The TOUGHREACT/ECO2N [3] simulator was adopted for the validation. The degree of refinement of the spatial grid and the complexity and velocity of the mineral reactions, along with a cut-off value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 allowed to originate precipitates in the simplified approach were found out to be the governing parameters for the convergence of the two schemes. Systematic discrepancies between the approaches are not reducible, simply because there is no feedback between chemistry and hydrodynamics, and can reach 20 % - 30 % in unfavourable cases. However, even such discrepancy is completely acceptable, in our opinion, given the amount of

  20. Longitudinal Blood Pressure Control, Long-Term Mortality, and Predictive Utility of Serum Liver Enzymes and Bilirubin in Hypertensive Patients.

    PubMed

    McCallum, Linsay; Panniyammakal, Jeemon; Hastie, Claire E; Hewitt, Jonathan; Patel, Rajan; Jones, Gregory C; Muir, Scott; Walters, Matthew; Sattar, Naveed; Dominiczak, Anna F; Padmanabhan, Sandosh

    2015-07-01

    There is accruing evidence from general population studies that serum bilirubin and liver enzymes affect blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular risk, but it is unclear whether these have an impact on hypertensive patients in terms of long-term survival or BP control. We analyzed 12 000 treated hypertensive individuals attending a tertiary care clinic followed up for 35 years for association between baseline liver function tests and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular covariates. Generalized estimating equations were used to study the association of liver tests and follow-up BP. The total time at risk was 173 806 person years with median survival 32.3 years. Follow-up systolic BP over 5 years changed by -0.4 (alanine transaminase and bilirubin), +2.1(alkaline phosphatase), +0.9(γ-glutamyl transpeptidase) mm Hg for each standard deviation increase. Serum total bilirubin and alanine transaminase showed a significant negative association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas alkaline phosphatase and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase showed a positive association and aspartate transaminase showed a U-shapedassociation. Serum bilirubin showed an incremental improvement of continuous net reclassification improvement by 8% to 26% for 25 year and 35 year cardiovascular mortality, whereas all liver markers together improved continuous net reclassification improvement by 19% to 47% compared with reference model. In hypertensive patients, serum liver enzymes and bilirubin within 4 standard deviations of the mean show independent effects on mortality and BP control. Our findings would support further studies to elucidate the mechanisms by which liver enzymes and bilirubin may exert an effect on BP and cardiovascular risk, but there is little support for using them in risk stratification. PMID:25941342

  1. Early changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover predict the long-term response to alendronate therapy in representative elderly women: a randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, S L; Parker, R A; Ferguson, L; Rosen, H N; Maitland-Ramsey, L; Karpf, D B

    1998-09-01

    Although the antiresorptive agent alendronate has been shown to increase bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and spine and decrease the incidence of osteoporotic fractures in older women, few data are available regarding early prediction of long-term response to therapy, particularly with regard to increases in hip BMD. Examining short-term changes in biochemical markers incorporates physiologic response with therapeutic compliance and should provide useful prognostic information for patients. The objective of this study was to examine whether early changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover predict long-term changes in hip BMD in elderly women. The study was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial which took place in a community-based academic hospital. One hundred and twenty community-dwelling, ambulatory women 65 years of age and older participated in the study. Intervention consisted of alendronate versus placebo for 2.5 years. All patients received appropriate calcium and vitamin D supplementation. The principal outcome measures included BMD of the hip (total hip, femoral neck, trochanter, and intertrochanter), spine (posteroanterior [PA] and lateral), total body, and radius. Biochemical markers of bone resorption included urinary N-telopeptide cross-linked collagen type I and free deoxypyridinoline; markers of bone formation included serum osteocalcin and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase. Long-term alendronate therapy was associated with increased BMD at the total hip (4.0%), femoral neck (3.1%), trochanter (5.5%), intertrochanter (3.8%), PA spine (7.8%), lateral spine (10.6%), total body (2.2%), and one-third distal radius (1.3%) in elderly women (all p < 0.01). In the placebo group, bone density increased 1.9-2.1% at the spine (p < 0.05) and remained stable at all other sites. At 6 months, there were significant decreases in all markers of bone turnover (-10% to -53%, p < 0.01) in women on alendronate. The changes in urinary

  2. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury.

    PubMed

    Patel, Samir P; Smith, Taylor D; VanRooyen, Jenna L; Powell, David; Cox, David H; Sullivan, Patrick G; Rabchevsky, Alexander G

    2016-05-15

    The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  3. The Differential Effects of Abuse Characteristics and Attachment in the Prediction of Long-Term Effects of Sexual Abuse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Pamela C.

    1993-01-01

    Female incest survivors (n=112) completed several inventories and checklists to measure sexual abuse severity and adult attachment. Analyses indicated that sexual abuse characteristics predicted depression, intrusive thoughts, and memory avoidance. Adult attachment, particularly a lack of secure attachment, predicted memory avoidance, and also…

  4. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26751089

  5. Slow crack propagation in glass and creep prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, Celine; Fortin, Jerome; Gueguen, Yves

    2013-04-01

    The context of our study is the observation of the time-dependent deformation of cracked glass. The aim of our study is to observe the slow crack propagation, to quantify it and to predict finally the creep behavior. We performed creep experiments in compaction conditions in a triaxial cell, on cracked boro-silicate glass samples. The chemical composition of the investigated glass is very close to the composition of waste vitrified packages. The matrix of the original glass (OG) is perfectly amorphous, without porosity. A few isolated air bubbles are trapped during the glass flow. Cracks are introduced in the OG through thermal shocks. Strain and acoustic emission (AE) are recorded. Several experiments are performed at different confining pressures (15 or 25 MPa), different pore fluid conditions (with argon gas, considered as the dry case, with tap water saturated porosity, or with distilled water) and different temperatures (ambiant temperature, 50oC or 80oC). Linear increase of the volumetric strain is first observed. A dilatancy increase is recorded. Note that dilatancy does not appear in constant strain rate tests. Constant stress tests show that dilatancy develops during a time interval that depends on the stress level. In addition AE rate are recorded. A non zero AE rate is an evidence of crack propagation. We use a micro-mechanical model that gives the stress intensity factor at the crack tips. This factor depends on stress and geometrical parameters (all known). An exponential law describe the rate of crack propagation, as a function of temperature, environment and applied stresses. This model allows us to predict the creep rate in glass. Assuming a constant crack aspect ratio, crack length and volumetric strain are related. The volumetric strain rate is calculated from model and compared to the data.

  6. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  7. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C.

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals’ nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons ‘on the move’, as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  8. Long-term fluctuations of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria, Scyphomedusa) in the western Mediterranean Sea. Prediction by climatic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goy, Jacquelinn; Morand, Pierre; Etienne, Michéle

    1989-02-01

    The archives of the Station Zoologique at Villefranche-sur-Mer contain records of "years with Pelagia noctiluca" and 'years without Pelagia". These records, plus additional data, indicate that over the past 200 years (1785-1985) outburst of Pelagia have occured about every 12 years. Using a forecasting model, climatic variables, notably temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure, appear to predict "years with Pelagia".

  9. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients' medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055

  10. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D.; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C.; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients’ medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055

  11. Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to predict long term outcomes in children with autism spectrum disorders.

    PubMed

    Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L; Brewer, Neil

    2014-09-01

    This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS). Western Psychological Services, Los Angeles 1988), for long term outcomes of children with ASD engaged in an early intervention program. Participants were 55 children (44 male, 11 female) aged 19–42 months (M = 33.5, SD = 5.6) at initial assessment who were followed up 2 and 6 years after their initial assessment. The ADEC and the CARS performed similarly when predicting long term outcomes such as clinical diagnostic outcome and overall adaptive functioning level. However, only the ADEC score was significantly correlated with ASD symptom severity at the 6-year follow up. Although these findings need to be replicated with additional and larger samples, this study extends our understanding of the psychometric properties of both the ADEC and the CARS. PMID:24658894

  12. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Snoeck-Stroband, Jiska B.; Lapperre, Therese S.; Sterk, Peter J.; Hiemstra, Pieter S.; Thiadens, Henk A.; Boezen, H. Marike; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; Postma, Dirkje S.; Timens, Wim; Sont, Jacob K.

    2015-01-01

    Background The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD. Methods Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), 30–80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III), age 45–75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid) or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20), and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study. Results Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04). Conclusions Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847 PMID:26659582

  13. Post-Extinction Conditional Stimulus Valence Predicts Reinstatement Fear: Relevance for Long Term Outcomes of Exposure Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Zbozinek, Tomislav D.; Hermans, Dirk; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Liao, Betty; Craske, Michelle G.

    2014-01-01

    Exposure therapy for anxiety disorders is translated from fear conditioning and extinction. While exposure therapy is effective in treating anxiety, fear sometimes returns after exposure. One pathway for return of fear is reinstatement: unsignaled unconditional stimuli following completion of extinction. The present study investigated the extent to which valence of the conditional stimulus (CS+) after extinction predicts return of CS+ fear after reinstatement. Participants (N = 84) engaged in a differential fear conditioning paradigm and were randomized to reinstatement or non-reinstatement. We hypothesized that more negative post-extinction CS+ valence would predict higher CS+ fear after reinstatement relative to non-reinstatement and relative to extinction retest. Results supported the hypotheses and suggest that strategies designed to decrease negative valence of the CS+ may reduce the return of fear via reinstatement following exposure therapy. PMID:24957680

  14. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  15. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  16. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 2: Phase 2 subsize panel cyclic creep predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cramer, B. A.; Davis, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    A method for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures was developed. The resulting computer program may be applied to either the time-hardening or strain-hardening theories of creep accumulation. Iterative techniques were used to determine structural rotations, creep strains, and stresses as a function of time. Deflections were determined by numerical integration of structural rotations along the panel length. The analytical approach was developed for analyzing thin-gage entry vehicle metallic-thermal-protection system panels subjected to cyclic bending loads at high temperatures, but may be applied to any panel subjected to bending loads. Predicted panel creep deflections were compared with results from cyclic tests of subsize corrugation and rib-stiffened panels. Empirical equations were developed for each material based on correlation with tensile cyclic creep data and both the subsize panels and tensile specimens were fabricated from the same sheet material. For Vol. 1, see N75-21431.

  17. Long-term prediction of major coronary or ischaemic stroke event in a low-incidence Southern European population: model development and evaluation of clinical utility

    PubMed Central

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Gianfagna, Francesco; Chambless, Lloyd E; Giampaoli, Simona; Mancia, Giuseppe; Cesana, Giancarlo; Ferrario, Marco M

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop a long-term prediction model of first major cardiovascular event and to assess its clinical utility in a low-incidence European population. Setting Four independent population-based cohorts enrolled between 1986 and 1993 in Northern Italy. Participants and methods N=5247 35-year-old to 69-year-old men and women free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Absolute 20-year risk of first fatal or non-fatal coronary or ischaemic stroke event (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA) validated) was estimated from gender-specific Cox models. Main outcome measures Model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curve, AUC). ‘High-risk’ subjects were identified based on several threshold values for the 20-year predicted risk. Clinical utility was defined in terms of fraction of missed events (events among those considered at low-risk) and unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio). A net benefit curve was also provided. Results Kaplan-Meier 20-year risk was 16.1% in men (315 events) and 6.1% in women (123 events). Model discrimination (AUC=0.737 in men, 0.801 in women) did not change significantly as compared to 10-year prediction time interval. In men, with respect to risk stratification based on the number of risk factors, a 20% predicted risk cut-off would miss less events (36% vs 50%) and reduce unnecessary treatment (false:true positive ratio 2.2 vs 3.0); the net benefit was higher over the whole range of threshold values. Similar considerations hold for women. Conclusions Long-term prediction has good discrimination ability and is clinically useful for risk stratification in primary prevention. A clinical utility analysis is recommended to identify the optimal stratification according to different public health goals. PMID:24227872

  18. Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence

    PubMed Central

    Hallett, Timothy B.

    2014-01-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the infectiousness of HIV-infected persons, but only after testing, linkage to care, and successful viral suppression. Thus, a large proportion of HIV transmission during a period of high infectiousness in the first few months after infection (“early transmission”) is perceived as a threat to the impact of HIV “treatment-as-prevention” strategies. We created a mathematical model of a heterosexual HIV epidemic to investigate how the proportion of early transmission affects the impact of ART on reducing HIV incidence. The model includes stages of HIV infection, flexible sexual mixing, and changes in risk behavior over the epidemic. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from South Africa using a Bayesian framework. Immediately after ART was introduced, more early transmission was associated with a smaller reduction in HIV incidence rate—consistent with the concern that a large amount of early transmission reduces the impact of treatment on incidence. However, the proportion of early transmission was not strongly related to the long-term reduction in incidence. This was because more early transmission resulted in a shorter generation time, in which case lower values for the basic reproductive number (R0) are consistent with observed epidemic growth, and R0 was negatively correlated with long-term intervention impact. The fraction of early transmission depends on biological factors, behavioral patterns, and epidemic stage and alone does not predict long-term intervention impacts. However, early transmission may be an important determinant in the outcome of short-term trials and evaluation of programs. PMID:25313068

  19. Partial-prep bonded restorations in the anterior dentition: Long-term gingival health and predictability. A case report.

    PubMed

    Molina, Ivan Contreras; Molina, Gil Contreras; Stanley, Kyle; Lago, Carlo; Xavier, Clessius Ferreira; Volpato, Claudia Angela Maziero

    2016-01-01

    Bonded porcelain restorations are a predictable and durable treatment option that can restore not only the strength and function of the teeth but also the esthetic appearance. One important issue in adhesive dentistry is the preservation of sound enamel. Following biomimetic principles, employing minimally invasive applications and adhesive technologies is of paramount importance for successful restorations. While it is widely accepted that minimally invasive restorative techniques should be favored, there is still some controversy over the noninvasive approaches. The purpose of this article is to question the complete "no-prep veneer" concept due to the possible negative effects on periodontal health caused by excessive contour and overhangs of the ceramic restoration, and to propose a new method to assess the quality and longevity of veneers with a partial-prep concept. PMID:26417617

  20. High-sensitive Troponin T measurements early after heart transplantation predict short- and long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Erbel, Christian; Taskin, Rukiye; Doesch, Andreas; Dengler, Thomas J; Wangler, Susanne; Akhavanpoor, Mohammadreza; Ruhparwar, Arjang; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Katus, Hugo A; Gleissner, Christian A

    2013-03-01

    Following heart transplantation, cardiac biomarkers remain elevated for several weeks eventually as a result of membrane leakage of the donor organ. We now test the predictive power of blood levels of troponin T (TNT) measured by the new hsTNT assay (Roche Diagnostics, Roche Diagnostics, Mannheim, Germany) early after heart transplantation. TNT was determined in 141 cardiac allograft recipients and 40 controls. Our findings demonstrate that patients who died within the first year after transplantation had significantly higher median hsTNT serum levels 6 weeks after transplantation (156 ng/l ± 203 vs. 29 ng/l ± 21, P = 0.0002). Using ROC analysis, a serum hsTNT concentration of 33.55 ng/l 6 weeks after transplantation was found to be the best cutoff to predict death at 1 year (HR 0.16, 95%CI:0.05-0.46, P = 0.001) with a sensitivity of 90.91% and a specificity of 70.97%. In addition, survival at 5 years (HR 0.15, 95% CI 0.06-0.35, P < 0.0001) was significantly better among patients below that cutoff value. In multivariate analysis, hsTNT serum level 6 weeks after transplantation emerged as an independent predictor for first-year mortality (hsTNT-HR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.81-1.00, P = 0.03). Cardiac troponin T concentrations early after transplantation as measured with a highly sensitive assay represent a strong and independent risk predictor of death after heart transplantation. PMID:23252662

  1. A numerical procedure for predicting creep and delayed failures in laminated composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillard, D. A.; Brinson, H. F.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical procedure is described for predicting the viscoelastic response of general laminates. A nonlinear compliance model is used to predict the creep response of the individual laminae. A biaxial delayed failure model predicts ply failure. The numerical procedure, based on lamination theory, increases by increments through time to predict creep compliance and delayed failures in laminates. Numerical stability problems and experimental verification are discussed. Although the program has been quite successful in predicting creep of general laminates, the assumptions associated with lamination theory have resulted in erroneous bounds on the predicted material response. Delayed failure predictions have been conservative. Several improvements are suggested to increase the accuracy of the procedure.

  2. Satellite-driven predictions of animal migrations in response to short and long-term environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, P. S.; Bohrer, G.; Wethington, S.; Bartlam-Brooks, H. L.; Powers, D. R.; Goetz, S. J.; Graham, C. H.

    2012-12-01

    Animal migrations have evolved in response to spatio-temporal heterogeneity in resources, habitats, predation, and competition. Their reliance on disjunct habitats makes migratory animals potentially more vulnerable to extreme climate events or phenological changes at other trophic levels. The advent of affordable satellite-based tracking technology has revolutionized the study of animal movement in the past two decades. Understanding internal and external drivers of migratory behavior, and how they interact, is critical for migration ecology to move beyond solely the measurement and description of organism-level movement and to predict how environmental change might affect migrations. To achieve this, it is necessary to not only measure animals' movement but also their reliance on prevailing external, i.e. environmental, conditions prior to, and during migration. An increasingly wide array of satellite and model-derived gridded data sets that map environmental conditions at regular temporal intervals are now readily accessible because of standardized processing and data formats, as well as a variety of online portals that provide host data archives and/or on-demand processing free-of-charge. While they are often of coarser spatial resolution, these data can overcome many limitations of in situ measurements with regard to spatial extent and temporal frequency. We demonstrate the use of global gridded environmental time-series in the study of animal migrations through case studies. First we show how inter-annual weather variation in wintering habitats affects migratory behavior of broad-tailed hummingbirds and investigate how it carries over to their reproductive success and survival in summer habitats. To do so, we use vegetation indices as proxies of resource availability, and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to map known physiological constraints on the birds. Secondly, we investigated the effects of long as well as short-term variations in

  3. The role of pre-treatment diffusion-weighted MRI in predicting long-term outcome of colorectal liver metastasis

    PubMed Central

    Collins, D J; Brown, G; Chau, I; Cunningham, D; Leach, M O; Koh, D-M

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To determine the prognostic value of pre-treatment apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of colorectal liver metastases in predicting disease response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 102 patients who underwent pre-treatment diffusion-weighted MRI using a breath-hold (b=0, 150, 500) or a free-breathing (b=0, 50, 100, 250, 500, 750) technique. The mean ADC (b=0–500) and mean flow-insensitive ADC (ADChigh) values (breath-hold: b=150 and 500; free-breathing: b=100 and 500) of up to three hepatic lesions were evaluated in each patient. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded. Tumour response was assessed by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria at 12 weeks after treatment. Associations between tumour response, ADC values and clinical/laboratory parameters were examined by one-way analysis of variance. The relationship of ADC with PFS and OS was determined by Kaplan–Meier analysis. Results: 62 patients responded to chemotherapy at 12 weeks. The pre-treatment mean ADC and mean ADChigh were higher in the non-responding group than in the responding group (1.55 vs 1.36, p=0.033; 1.40 vs 1.16, p=0.024). However, the PFS and OS of the two groups of patients stratified by the median of mean ADC values or threshold derived by receiver operating characteristic analysis were not statistically significant. By multivariate Cox regression analysis, patients with ≤2 metastases and response to chemotherapy showed better PFS; white cell count ≤10 and surgical treatment were associated with better OS. Conclusion: Colorectal liver metastasis with higher pre-treatment mean ADC and mean ADChigh was associated with poorer response to chemotherapy. However, ADC and ADChigh values did not predict the patient outcome in this study cohort. Advances in knowledge: High mean ADC values of colorectal liver metastases on pre-treatment diffusion-weighted MRI is associated with poorer

  4. Long-term landscape trajectory - Can we make predictions about landscape form and function for post-mining landforms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, G. R.; Lowry, J. B. C.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2016-08-01

    A significant issue for the application of numerical Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) is their calibration/parameterisation and validation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, they can provide meaningful and useful results. However, before use, each LEM requires a set of data and parameter values for it to run reliably and most importantly produce results with some measure of precision and accuracy. This calibration/validation process is largely carried out using parameter values determined from present day, or recent surface conditions which are themselves product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here we examine the reliability of an LEM to predict catchment form over geological time (500,000 years) for a potential rehabilitated mine landform using defensible parameters derived from field plots. The findings demonstrate that there is no equifinality in landscape form with different parameter sets producing geomorphically and hydrologically unique landscapes throughout their entire evolution. This shows that parameterisation does matter over geological time scales. However, for shorter time scales (< 10,000 years) the geomorphic differences in hillslope form are minimal as described by the hypsometric curve, area-slope and cumulative area distribution, yet there are large differences in sediment output. Therefore, obtaining reliable and defensible parameters for input to LEMs is essential.

  5. Prediction of long-term stability of ionic liquids at elevated temperatures by means of non-isothermal thermogravimetrical analysis.

    PubMed

    Seeberger, Andreas; Andresen, Ann-Kathrin; Jess, Andreas

    2009-11-01

    The thermal stability of an ionic liquid (IL) is an important parameter and limits the maximum operation temperature. However, the definition of stability and of the maximum operation temperature, respectively, is still an open question. Typically, non-isothermal thermogravimetrical analysis (TGA) is used to determine the stability, which is then mostly defined by the onset temperature, i.e. by the temperature where a certain mass loss of e.g. 1% is reached. Unfortunately, the rate of mass loss depends on the apparatus and conditions (e.g. heating rate), and may be governed by evaporation or by thermal decomposition or by a combination of both. In this work, isothermal as well as non-isothermal TG/DTG measurements at different heating rates were used as basis to model the combined kinetics of evaporation and decomposition, thereby taking 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [BMIM][BTA] as an example. The measured and predicted mass losses are in good agreement, and the simulation of TG/DTG experiments by the methods outlined in this work leads to a reliable estimation of the evaporation (as shown by comparison with literature data) as well as of the decomposition rate. For a closed system, where the mass loss by evaporation is negligible, a novel criterion (1% mass loss by thermal decomposition within one year) is presented to estimate the maximum operation temperature of ILs. PMID:19830320

  6. Predictive Factors Affecting the Short Term and Long Term Exodrift in Patients with Intermittent Exotropia after Bilateral Rectus Muscle Recession and Its Effect on Surgical Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Yam, Jason C. S.; Chong, Gabriela S. L.; Wu, Patrick K. W.; Wong, Ursula S. F.; Chan, Clement W. N.; Ko, Simon T. C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To determine the predictive factors that affect short term and long term postoperative drift in intermittent exotropia after bilateral lateral rectus recession and to evaluate its effect on surgical outcome. Methods. Retrospective review of 203 patients with diagnosis of intermittent exotropia, who had surgical corrections with more than 3 years of followup. Different preoperative parameters were obtained and evaluated using Pearson's correlation analysis. Results. The proportion of exodrift increased from 62% at 6 weeks to 84% at 3 years postoperatively. The postoperative drift was 4.3 ± 8.1 PD at 6 weeks, 5.8 ± 8.4 PD at 6 months, 7.2 ± 8.3 PD at 1 year, 7.4 ± 8.4 PD at 2 years, and 7.7 ± 8.5 PD at 3 years. Preoperative deviation and initial overcorrection were significant factors affecting the postoperative drift at 3 years (r = 0.177, P = 0.011, r = −0.349, and P < 0.001, resp.). Conclusions. Postoperative exodrift along three years occurs in a majority of patients after bilateral lateral rectus recession for intermittent exotropia. The long term surgical success is significantly affected by this postoperative exodrift. A larger preoperative deviation and a larger initial overcorrection are associated with a larger early and late postoperative exodrift. PMID:25093170

  7. Creep crack growth predictions in INCO 718 using a continuum damage model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.; Wilson, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Creep crack growth tests have been carried out in compact type specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). Theoretical creep crack growth predictions have been carried out by incorporating a unified viscoplastic constitutive model and a continuum damage model into the ARAQUS nonlinear finite element program. Material constants for both the viscoplastic model and the creep continuum damage model were determined from tests carried out on uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). A comparison of the theoretical creep crack growth rates obtained from the finite element predictions with the experimentally observed creep crack growth rates indicates that the viscoplastic/continuum damage model can be used to successfully predict creep crack growth in compact type specimens using material constants obtained from uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C).

  8. Symptom distress predicts long-term health and well-being in allogeneic stem cell transplantation survivors.

    PubMed

    Bevans, Margaret F; Mitchell, Sandra A; Barrett, John A; Bishop, Michael R; Childs, Richard; Fowler, Daniel; Krumlauf, Michael; Prince, Patricia; Shelburne, Nonniekaye; Wehrlen, Leslie; Yang, Li

    2014-03-01

    The number of survivors after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) continues to increase, yet their survivorship experience has not been fully characterized. This study examines the health status and health-related quality of life (HRQL) of HSCT survivors. The aims of the study were to: (1) explore the baseline and change over time in these health outcomes, and (2) characterize subgroups experiencing adverse outcomes. In this longitudinal study, adults who survived >3 years from date of allogeneic HSCT completed a series of patient-reported outcome measures annually, including measures of health status, HRQL, and symptoms. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling. Subjects (N = 171) were on average 44 (±13.5) years of age and primarily male (62.6%); 40% were Hispanic. Mean scores for physical and mental health and HRQL were preserved relative to population norms. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed no significant change in the mean trajectories of these outcomes, although significant between-individual variability was observed. When controlling for demographic and clinical factors, physical symptom distress negatively affected all outcomes. The impact of symptom distress on physical health varied based on time since HSCT; impairment in physical health was greatest in survivors experiencing high symptom distress and who were within the first decade post transplantation. Extended treatment with systemic immunosuppressive therapy also predicted inferior physical health. These findings suggest that patient-centered outcomes are preserved relative to normative values and are generally stable after allogeneic HSCT, although survivors with persistent symptoms and those receiving systemic immunosuppression experience impairments in health status and HRQL. PMID:24355521

  9. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  10. On the importance of coupled THM processes to predict the long-term response of a generic salt repository for high-level nuclear waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanco Martin, L.; Rutqvist, J.; Birkholzer, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Salt is a potential medium for the underground disposal of nuclear waste because it has several assets, in particular its ability to creep and heal fractures generated by excavation and its water and gas tightness in the undisturbed state. In this research, we focus on disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste (such as spent fuel) and we consider a generic salt repository with in-drift emplacement of waste packages and subsequent backfill of the drifts with run-of-mine crushed salt. As the natural salt creeps, the crushed salt backfill gets progressively compacted and an engineered barrier system is subsequently created. In order to evaluate the integrity of the natural and engineered barriers over the long-term, it is important to consider the coupled effects of the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes that take place. In particular, the results obtained so far show how the porosity reduction of the crushed salt affects the saturation and pore pressure evolution throughout the repository, both in time and space. Such compaction is induced by the stress and temperature regime within the natural salt. Also, transport properties of the host rock are modified not only by thermo-mechanically and hydraulically-induced damaged processes, but also by healing/sealing of existing fractures. In addition, the THM properties of the backfill evolve towards those of the natural salt during the compaction process. All these changes are based on dedicated laboratory experiments and on theoretical considerations [1-3]. Different scenarios are modeled and compared to evaluate the relevance of different processes from the perspective of effective nuclear waste repositories. The sensitivity of the results to some parameters, such as capillarity, is also addressed. The simulations are conducted using an updated version of the TOUGH2-FLAC3D simulator, which is based on a sequential explicit method to couple flow and geomechanics [4]. A new capability for large strains and creep

  11. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P <0.001), old age, male sex, high body mass index, medical comorbidity, total gastrectomy, and combined resection to be independent predictors of postoperative complications. Among these, only low PNI (OR = 4.279, 95% CI = 1.760-10.404, P = 0.001) and medical comorbidity were independent predictors of postoperative mortality. For long-term outcomes, low PNI was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival, but not recurrence (overall survival: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.221-1.568, P < 0.001; recurrence-free survival: HR = 1.142, 95% CI = 0.985-1.325, P = 0.078).PNI can be used to predict patients at increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although PNI was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival, the index was not associated with cancer recurrence. PMID:27149460

  12. A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

    1992-01-01

    A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

  13. A modeling and experimental study for long-term prediction of localized corrosion in carbon steel overpacks for high-level radioactive waste

    SciTech Connect

    Hoch, A.; Porter, F.; Sharland, S.; Honda, A.; Ishikawa, H.; Taniguchi, N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper describes a joint modeling and experimental study for investigation of pit growth in carbon steel High-Level Radioactive Waste overpacks under consideration in Japan. A mathematical model of the growth of corrosion pits in metals has been developed. This model is implemented in the computer program CAMLE, and includes representation of the chemical, electrochemical and migration processes that control pit-growth rates. Experiments to provide key input data for the model are described, in addition to experiments to measure short-term pit growth. Predictions form the model are compared with these data. Overall, the comparisons are encouraging and the model shows good potential as a tool for assessment of the long-term corrosion behavior of overpacks under repository conditions. Future developments of the model to improve agreement are discussed.

  14. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613

  15. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    PubMed Central

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  16. Creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yeow, Y. T.

    1980-01-01

    A 'material modeling' methodology for predicting the creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites is proposed. In this approach the parameters (obtained from short-term tests) required to make the predictions are the three principal creep compliance master curves and their corresponding quasi-static strengths tested at room temperature (22 C). Using these parameters in conjunction with a failure criterion, creep rupture envelopes can be generated for any combination of in-plane loading conditions and ambient temperature. The analysis was validated experimentally for one composite system, the T300/934 graphite-epoxy system. This was done by performing short-term creep tests (to generate the principal creep compliance master curves with the time-temperature superposition principle) and relatively long-term creep rupture tensile tests of off-axis specimens at 180 C. Good to reasonable agreement between experimental and analytical results is observed.

  17. Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1997-01-01

    The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

  18. Poor predictive value of contemporary bleeding risk scores during long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism. A multicentre retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Riva, N; Bellesini, M; Di Minno, M N D; Mumoli, N; Pomero, F; Franchini, M; Fantoni, C; Lupoli, R; Brondi, B; Borretta, V; Bonfanti, C; Ageno, W; Dentali, F

    2014-09-01

    Bleeding is a common and feared complication of oral anticoagulant therapy. Several prediction models have been recently developed, but there is a lack of evidence in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of this study was to validate currently available bleeding risk scores during long-term oral anticoagulation for VTE. We retrospectively included adult patients on vitamin K antagonists for VTE secondary prevention, followed by five Italian Anticoagulation Clinics (Cuneo, Livorno, Mantova, Napoli, Varese), between January 2010 and August 2012. All bleeding events were classified as major bleeding (MB) or clinically-relevant-non-major-bleeding (CRNMB). A total of 681 patients were included (median age 63 years; 52.0% female). During a mean follow-up of 8.82 (± 3.59) months, 50 bleeding events occurred (13 MB and 37 CRNMB), for an overall bleeding incidence of 9.99/100 patient-years. The rate of bleeding was higher in the first three months of treatment (15.86/100 patient-years) than afterwards (7.13/100 patient-years). The HAS-BLED showed the best predictive value for bleeding complications during the first three months of treatment (area under the curve [AUC] 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.78), while only the ACCP score showed a modest predictive value after the initial three months (AUC 0.61, 95%CI 0.51-0.72). These two scores had also the highest sensitivity and the highest negative predictive value. None of the scores predicted MB better than chance. Currently available bleeding risk scores had only a modest predictive value for patients with VTE. Future studies should aim at the creation of a new prediction rule, in order to better define the risk of bleeding of VTE patients. PMID:24899092

  19. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO{sub 2} Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    SciTech Connect

    Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO{sub 2} microelectrodes were used to obtain PO{sub 2} measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO{sub 2}, mean PO{sub 2}, and % <5 mm Hg or <10 mm Hg. Biochemical failure (BF) was defined using both the former American Society of Therapeutic Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) (three consecutive raises) and the current Phoenix (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) definitions. A Cox proportional hazards regression model evaluated the influence of hypoxia using the P/M mean PO{sub 2} ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 emerged as the only significant predictor of ASTRO BF (p = 0.043). Hormonal therapy (p = 0.015) and P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 (p = 0.046) emerged as the only independent predictors of the Phoenix BF. Kaplan-Meier freedom from BF for P/M ratio <0.10 vs. {>=}0.10 at 8 years for ASTRO BF was 46% vs. 78% (p = 0.03) and for the Phoenix BF was 66% vs. 83% (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Hypoxia in prostate cancer (low mean P/M PO{sub 2} ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  20. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    PubMed

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. PMID:26551276

  1. Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, K.C.; Gaydos, L.J.

    1998-01-01

    Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calibrated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably different urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the differences in the initial configurations and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discusses the role of GIS in the applications. The model has generated some long term predictions that appear useful for urban planning and are consistent with results from other models and observations of growth. Although the GIS was only loosely coupled with the model, the model's provision of future urban patterns as data layers for GIS description and analysis is an important outcome of this type of calculation.

  2. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

  3. Methodology to predict the number of forced outages due to creep failure

    SciTech Connect

    Palermo, J.V. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    All alloy metals at a temperature above 950 degrees Fahrenheit experience creep damage. Creep failures in boiler tubes usually begin after 25 to 40 years of operation. Since creep damage is irreversible, the only remedy is to replace the tube sections. By predicting the number of failures per year, the utility can make the best economic decision concerning tube replacement. This paper describes a methodology to calculate the number of forced outages per yea due to creep failures. This methodology is particularly useful to utilities that have boilers that have at least 25 years of operation.

  4. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  5. Evaluating the long-term performance for rainfall-induced shallow landslides prediction using a physically-based model in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Jui-Yi; Tun Lee, Kwan; Chen, Yi-Chin; Hwang, Gong-Do; Yang, Tsun-Hua; Lin, Gwo-Fong

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landslides usually occur during typhoons or rainstorms and cause major damage in Taiwan. An efficient prediction could mitigate the loss of life and property. It means that issuing a timely and accurate warning could avoid or reduce the damage before the shallow landslides occur. The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term performance of rainfall-induced shallow landslides using a physically-based model in Taiwan. The Su-Hua and Southern Cross-Island highways in northeastern and southern Taiwan, suffering major impacts from shallow landslides, were selected as the study areas. The detail hydrologic record and geological information were collected for analysis to test the model performance by running the entire hourly rainfall data. Two comparisons were made to evaluate the model performance: (1) one with observed shallow landslides and (2) another with forecasts form the empirical alert threshold based on rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall. The analytical results indicated that all of the three methods can efficiently detect the occurrence of shallow landslides (the probability of shallow landslide detection ratio is close to 1.0). However, the empirical alert threshold did not consider the hyetograph (distribution of rainfall depth in the storm event), land cover, geological, geomorphological factors such as slope and contributed area induce the high false alarm ratio (false alarm ratio > 0.5) in the study areas. The proposed physically-based model could efficiently decrease the times of false alarm. Therefore, the proposed physically-based model may be a better choice for predicting the rainfall-induced shallow landslide. The threat score is 0.75 on the Su-Hua highway and 1.00 on the Southern Cross-island highway by proposed physically-based model indicating that the predicted and recorded shallow landslide are in best agreement. The results showed that the long-term performance of the proposed physically-based model

  6. Challenges in predicting non-linear creep and recovery in glassy polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medvedev, Grigori; Caruthers, James

    2014-03-01

    The phenomenon of non-linear creep of amorphous polymeric glasses is difficult to predict using the traditional viscoelastic and viscoplastic constitutive frameworks, where two features present a particular challenge: (i) the tertiary stage of the creep and (ii) the recovery from large creep upon removal of the load. Representative examples of these two nonlinear responses will be shown for lightly cross-linked PMMA and an epoxy material, where the creep and recovery behavior has been studied as a function of temperature and aging time. The acceleration of creep during the tertiary stage is not caused by damage since the original dimensions of a cross-linked sample are fully recoverable by annealing above Tg. The assumption that the relaxation time is a function of strain runs into qualitative problems when predicting multi-step constant strain rate loading experiments. Recovery from creep as predicted by the constitutive models where the relaxation time depends on the deformation history is too abrupt compared to the experiment - this known as the ``accelerated aging'' problem. A recently developed Stochastic Constitutive Model that acknowledges dynamic heterogeneity in the glass state naturally predicts both the tertiary creep and the smooth recovery from creep.

  7. Improving the Long-Term Stability of Atmospheric Surface Deformation Predictions by Mitigating the Effects of Orography Updates in Operational Weather Forecast Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dill, Robert; Bergmann-Wolf, Inga; Thomas, Maik; Dobslaw, Henryk

    2016-04-01

    The global numerical weather prediction model routinely operated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is typically updated about two times a year to incorporate the most recent improvements in the numerical scheme, the physical model or the data assimilation procedures into the system for steadily improving daily weather forecasting quality. Even though such changes frequently affect the long-term stability of meteorological quantities, data from the ECMWF deterministic model is often preferred over alternatively available atmospheric re-analyses due to both the availability of the data in near real-time and the substantially higher spatial resolution. However, global surface pressure time-series, which are crucial for the interpretation of geodetic observables, such as Earth rotation, surface deformation, and the Earth's gravity field, are in particular affected by changes in the surface orography of the model associated with every major change in horizontal resolution happened, e.g., in February 2006, January 2010, and May 2015 in case of the ECMWF operational model. In this contribution, we present an algorithm to harmonize surface pressure time-series from the operational ECMWF model by projecting them onto a time-invariant reference topography under consideration of the time-variable atmospheric density structure. The effectiveness of the method will be assessed globally in terms of pressure anomalies. In addition, we will discuss the impact of the method on predictions of crustal deformations based on ECMWF input, which have been recently made available by GFZ Potsdam.

  8. Thermal Aging Study of a Dow Corning SE 1700 Porous Structure Made by Direct Ink Writing: 1-Year Results and Long-Term Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Small, Ward; Pearson, Mark A.; Maiti, Amitesh; Metz, Thomas R.; Duoss, Eric B.; Wilson, Thomas S.

    2015-11-13

    Dow Corning SE 1700 (reinforced polydimethylsiloxane) porous structures were made by direct ink writing (DIW). The specimens (~50% porosity) were subjected to various compressive strains (15, 30, 45%) and temperatures (room temperature, 35, 50, 70°C) in a nitrogen atmosphere (active purge) for 1 year. Compression set and load retention of the aged specimens were measured periodically during the study. Compression set increased with strain and temperature. After 1 year, specimens aged at room temperature, 35, and 50°C showed ~10% compression set (relative to the applied compressive deflection), while those aged at 70°C showed 20-40%. Due to the increasing compression set, load retention decreased with temperature, ranging from ~90% at room temperature to ~60-80% at 70°C. Long-term compression set and load retention at room temperature were predicted by applying time-temperature superposition (TTS). The predictions show compression set relative to the compressive deflection will be ~10-15% with ~70-90% load retention after 50 years at 15-45% strain, suggesting the material will continue to be mechanically functional. Comparison of the results to previously acquired data for cellular (M97*, M9760, M9763) and RTV (S5370) silicone foams suggests that the SE 1700 DIW porous specimens are on par with, or outperform, the legacy foams.

  9. Mean platelet volume to platelet count ratio predicts in-hospital complications and long-term mortality in type A acute aortic dissection.

    PubMed

    Li, Dong-Ze; Chen, Qing-Jie; Sun, Hui-Ping; Zeng, Rui; Zeng, Zhi; Gao, Xiao-Ming; Ma, Yi-Tong; Yang, Yi-Ning

    2016-09-01

    Type A acute aortic dissection is a life-threatening vascular emergency because of its high morbidity and mortality. Platelet is a pivotal ingredient involved in the development of acute aortic dissection. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether mean platelet volume (MPV)/platelet count ratio predicts in-hospital complications and long-term mortality in type A acute aortic dissection. In this single-center and prospective cohort study, 106 consecutive patients with Stanford type A acute aortic dissection admitted to the hospital within 12 h after onset were recruited. The best cut-off value of MPV/platelet count ratio predicting all-cause mortality was determined by the receiver operator characteristic analysis. Patients were divided into high (H-MPV/platelet count) and low (L-MPV/platelet count) groups based on the cut-off value of 7.49 (10 fl/10/l). Patients were followed up for 3.5 years. Of the 106 acute aortic dissection patients, 71 (67.0%) died during the study period, with a median follow-up duration of 570 days. Compared to the L-MPV/platelet count group, patients with H-MPV/platelet count had a higher risk of in-hospital complications including hypotension, hypoxemia, myocardial ischemia/infarction, conscious disturbance, pericardial tamponade, paraplegia, and poor survival (all P < 0.05). In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders, MPV/platelet count ratio was positively associated with the hazard of all-cause mortality, irrespective of interventions either with medication only or urgent surgery, and the hazard ratios were 2.81 (95% confidence interval 1.28-4.48) for the H-MPV/platelet count group when taking L-MPV/platelet count group as the reference (P = 0.005). The MPV/platelet count ratio was a strong independent predictor for in-hospital complications and long-term mortality in patients with type A acute aortic dissection. PMID:26575495

  10. Prostate-specific antigen nadir after high-dose-rate brachytherapy predicts long-term survival outcomes in high-risk prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Satoh, Takefumi; Ishiyama, Hiromichi; Tabata, Ken-ichi; Komori, Shouko; Sekiguchi, Akane; Ikeda, Masaomi; Kurosaka, Shinji; Fujita, Tetsuo; Kitano, Masashi; Hayakawa, Kazushige; Iwamura, Masatsugu

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen nadir (nPSA) after high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy in clinically non-metastatic high-risk prostate cancer patients. Material and methods Data from 216 patients with high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer who underwent HDR brachytherapy and external beam radiation therapy with long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) between 2003 and 2008 were analyzed. The median prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at diagnosis was 24 ng/ml (range: 3-338 ng/ml). The clinical stage was T1c-2a in 55 cases (26%), T2b-2c in 48 (22%), T3a in 75 (35%), and T3b-4 in 38 (17%). The mean dose to 90% of the planning target volume was 6.3 Gy/fraction of HDR brachytherapy. After 5 fractions, external beam radiation therapy with 10 fractions of 3 Gy was administered. All patients initially underwent neoadjuvant ADT for at least 6 months, and adjuvant ADT was continued for 36 months. The median follow-up was 7 years from the start of radiotherapy. Results The 7-year PSA relapse-free rate among patients with a post-radiotherapy nPSA level of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was 94%, compared with 23% for patients with higher nPSA values (HR = 28.57; 95% CI: 12.04-66.66; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the nPSA value after radiotherapy was a significant independent predictor of biochemical failure, whereas pretreatment predictive values for worse biochemical control including higher level of initial PSA, Gleason score ≥ 8, positive biopsy core rate ≥ 67%, and T3b-T4, failed to reach independent predictor status. The 7-year cancer-specific survival rate among patients with a post-radiotherapy nPSA level of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was 99%, compared with 82% for patients with higher nPSA values (HR = 32.25; 95% CI: 3.401-333.3; p = 0.002). Conclusions A post-radiotherapy nPSA value of ≤ 0.02 ng/ml was associated with better long-term biochemical tumor control even if patients had pretreatment predictive values for worse

  11. Creep behaviour and creep mechanisms of normal and healing ligaments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, Gail Marilyn

    . Similarly, ligament autografts had persistently abnormal creep behaviour and creep recovery after 2 years likely due to infiltration by scar tissue. Short-term immobilization of autografts had long-term detrimental consequences perhaps due to re-injury of the graft at remobilization. Treatments that restore normal properties to these mechanistic factors in order to control creep would improve joint healing by restoring joint kinematics and maintaining normal joint loading.

  12. Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

    PubMed

    Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

    2016-06-01

    Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests. PMID:26868524

  13. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

  14. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  15. Potential of Baseline Computed Tomography to Predict Long-Term Survival of Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Treated With Preoperative Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhi-Long; Chen, Ying; Li, Xiao-Ting; Chen, Ke-Neng; Sun, Ying-Shi

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of baseline computed tomography (CT) signs and postoperative TN stages on survival of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with preoperative chemotherapy. Consecutive patients (n = 130) with preoperative chemotherapy and radical esophagectomy from January 2006 to December 2011 were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Pathological T and N stages were confirmed by surgery. Baseline CT signs of tumor length, tumor thickness, outer membrane features, total number of lymph node (tLN), short diameter of the largest lymph node (SDL), and clinical T and N stages were measured. Eight-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were estimated using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine associations between baseline CT signs and survival outcomes. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that tLN number, largest LN short axis diameter, pT, and pN stages all correlated with OS significantly. And the total tLN number, SDL and pN stages significantly correlated with DFS. In Cox analyses, total tLN number (>6) and pN stage were significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13–2.11, P = 0.006] and HR: 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17–1.90, P = 0.001], respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that OS index was predictive of 1- to 3-year survival. Total number of lymph node in baseline CT provides equal efficiency compared to pN stages in the prediction of 8-year long-term survival outcomes for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with preoperative chemotherapy. PMID:27149488

  16. Potential of Baseline Computed Tomography to Predict Long-Term Survival of Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Treated With Preoperative Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi-Long; Chen, Ying; Li, Xiao-Ting; Chen, Ke-Neng; Sun, Ying-Shi

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of baseline computed tomography (CT) signs and postoperative TN stages on survival of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with preoperative chemotherapy. Consecutive patients (n = 130) with preoperative chemotherapy and radical esophagectomy from January 2006 to December 2011 were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Pathological T and N stages were confirmed by surgery. Baseline CT signs of tumor length, tumor thickness, outer membrane features, total number of lymph node (tLN), short diameter of the largest lymph node (SDL), and clinical T and N stages were measured. Eight-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were estimated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine associations between baseline CT signs and survival outcomes. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that tLN number, largest LN short axis diameter, pT, and pN stages all correlated with OS significantly. And the total tLN number, SDL and pN stages significantly correlated with DFS. In Cox analyses, total tLN number (>6) and pN stage were significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13-2.11, P = 0.006] and HR: 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17-1.90, P = 0.001], respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that OS index was predictive of 1- to 3-year survival. Total number of lymph node in baseline CT provides equal efficiency compared to pN stages in the prediction of 8-year long-term survival outcomes for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with preoperative chemotherapy. PMID:27149488

  17. Damage-based long-term modelling of a large alpine rock slope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riva, Federico; Agliardi, Federico; Amitrano, David; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2016-04-01

    damage. Starting from a geological and topographic setting consistent with the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, we simulated ice removal in terms of transient surface loading conditions. Results show that deglaciation exerted a major control on the spatial and temporal patterns of slope weakening and subsequent destabilization via progressive rock mass damage and related fluid pressure onset in the slope. The model was validated by comparison to field and borehole data and the spatial and temporal patterns of long-term slope instability were discussed. Results show the ability of our model to correctly predict in one modelling framework (1) the rockslide geometry and the staged morphological evolution related to creep regime, (2) the macroscopic spatial distribution of damage with consequences on fluid pressure distribution and (3) the long-term evolution of rock mass mechanical properties.

  18. Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

  19. Effects of Aging-Time Reference on the Long Term Behavior of the IM7/K3B Composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veazie, David R.; Gates, Thomas S.

    1998-01-01

    An analytical study was undertaken to investigate the effects of the time-based shift reference on the long term behavior of the graphite reinforced thermoplastic polyimide composite IM7/K3B at elevated temperature. Creep compliance and the effects of physical aging on the time dependent response was measured for uniaxial loading at several isothermal conditions below the glass transition temperature (T(sub g). Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated in tension and compression. The momentary sequenced creep/aging curves were collapsed through a horizontal (time) shift using the shortest, middle and longest aging time curve as the reference curve. Linear viscoelasticity was used to characterize the creep/recovery behavior and superposition techniques were used to establish the physical aging related material constants. The use of effective time expressions in a laminated plate model allowed for the prediction of long term creep compliance. The effect of using different reference curves with time/aging-time superposition was most sensitive to the physical aging shift rate at lower test temperatures. Depending on the loading mode, the reference curve used can result in a more accurate long term prediction, especially at lower test temperatures.

  20. Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Y.; Gorban, A. N.; Y Yang, T.

    2014-03-01

    This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation.

  1. Influence of climate, fire severity and forest mortality on predictions of long term streamflow: Potential effect of the 2009 wildfire on Melbourne's water supply catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feikema, Paul M.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Lane, Patrick N. J.

    2013-04-01

    SummaryIn February 2009, wildfire affected nine catchments, or approximately 28% of forested catchment area that supplies water to the city of Melbourne, Australia. This has potential to significantly affect the long term water use of these Eucalyptus forests and the consequential water yield because of the ecohydrologic response of some eucalypt species. Approximately 11% of the catchment area was severely burnt by intense fire, where vegetation mortality is higher. Catchment scale models using a physically-based approach were developed for the fire-affected water supply catchments. Different inputs of climate and forest mortality after fire were used to examine the relative contributions of rainfall, fire severity, forest type and forest age on post-fire streamflow. Simulations show the effect of fire on long term streamflow is likely to depend on a number of factors, the relative influence of which changes as rainfall becomes more limiting. Under average rainfall conditions, total reduction in post-fire streamflow after 100 years estimated to be between 1.4% (˜12 GL year-1) and 2.8% (˜24 GL year-1) are an order of magnitude lower than reductions in total catchment inflow during the period of low rainfall between 1997 and 2009, in which reservoir inflow was reduced by nearly 37%. The main reasons for the lower than expected changes in water yield are that a lower proportion of the catchments were affected by severe fire, and so mortality within the fire area was relatively low, and that the average age of the forest canopy (93 years) is younger than what is generally considered old growth forest. This means that the baseline (no-fire) streamflow used for reference is lower than would be expected with older, mature forest. The greatest post-fire affect on total water yield was predicted for the O'Shannassy catchment. This is due to the average forest age, which is the oldest of any of the catchments, that it has the highest average rainfall (1680 mm year-1), and

  2. Carbohydrate-antigen-125 levels predict hospital stay duration and adverse events at long-term follow-up in Takotsubo cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Francesco; Ferraretti, Armando; Musaico, Francesco; Di Martino, Luigi; Tarantino, Nicola; Ieva, Riccardo; Di Biase, Matteo; Brunetti, Natale Daniele

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible role of carbohydrate-antigen(CA)-125 as prognostic marker at short- and long-term follow-up, in subjects with Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). Sixty-three consecutive subjects with TTC were enrolled in the study and followed for a median 139 days. Circulating levels of CA-125, NT-proBNP, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were evaluated at admission. Duration of hospital stay, incidence of death, re-hospitalization and recurrence of TTC during follow-up were recorded. The mean hospital stay was 8.3 days, adverse events occurred during follow up in 17 % of cases. CA-125 levels at admission are inversely related to LVEF (r -0.30, p < 0.05) and directly related to hospital stay (r 0.29, p < 0.05). CA-125 levels at admission are higher in subjects with adverse events at follow-up (88.9 ± 200.0 vs 20.9 ± 30.0 U/mL, p < 0.05). Rates of incidence of adverse events are proportionally increased with CA-125 tertiles (0, 6, 11 % respectively, p for trend <0.01), at survival analysis (Log Rank p < 0.05) and after correction for age, gender, LVEF and NT-proBNP levels in multivariable Cox analysis (p < 0.05). CA-125 levels <10 U/ml are predictors of adverse events at follow up with 91 % sensitivity, 52 % specificity, 29 % positive predictive power, and 96 % negative predictive power. Increased CA-125 admission levels are associated with a longer hospital stay, a lower LVEF, and a higher risk of adverse events during follow up. CA-125 might be useful for early risk stratification of subjects with TTC. PMID:26832351

  3. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  4. Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

    2008-01-01

    This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

  5. A Long-Term Predictive Validity Study: Can the CDI Short Form be Used to Predict Language and Early Literacy Skills Four Years Later?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Can, Dilara Deniz; Ginsburg-Block, Marika; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn

    2013-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the predictive validity of the MacArthur Communicative Developmental Inventories-Short Form (CDI-SF), a parent report questionnaire about children's language development (Fenson, Pethick, Renda, Cox, Dale & Reznick, 2000). Data were first gathered from parents on the CDI-SF vocabulary scores for…

  6. Differential Effects on Student Demographic Groups of Using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite Score, Act Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average for Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (5)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the differential effects on racial/ethnic, family income, and gender groups of using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours…

  7. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2012-01-01

    This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

  8. Timber beams subjected to long - term loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sógel, K.

    2010-09-01

    Wood is a significant structural material, which is often used for timber bearing structures. Elements of timber structures must especially satisfy safety requirements, which are expressed by the ultimate limit states in the established standards. The structure must also satisfy the serviceability limit states. Local and global deformations make it impossible for the structure to serve the purpose it was designed for. It is important to take the deflections and their possible increase into account in the design to provide a structure which can be used during the whole period of service. Based on earlier examinations, it is known that a timber element over the course of long-term loading shows creep behavior. The structure of wood is able to adapt to the conditions of the surrounding environment. The properties of wood are especially affected by the relative humidity of the air and then by the type, intensity and duration of the loading. The most important factors affecting the serviceability of timber structures are volume changes caused by humidity and additional deflections caused by the effects of long-term loading. These phenomena emphasize the importance of serviceability limit states for timber structures. The paper deals with a long-term experimental investigation of timber girders that are currently often used. The aim was to obtain the deflection curves and mark the time dependence and the final deflections. The paper will also define the approximations for simulating the time-dependent deflections and obtain the creep coefficients for calculating the final deflections of the girders investigated.

  9. Predicting the long-term (137)Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: a parameter sensitivity analysis.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro; Oda, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Yasuo

    2014-09-01

    Radioactive materials deposited on the land surface of Fukushima Prefecture from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant explosion is a crucial issue for a number of reasons, including external and internal radiation exposure and impacts on agricultural environments and aquatic biota. Predicting the future distribution of radioactive materials and their fates is therefore indispensable for evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of remediation options regarding human health and the environment. Cesium-137, the main radionuclide to be focused on, is well known to adsorb to clay-rich soils; therefore its primary transportation mechanism is in the form of soil erosion on the land surface and transport of sediment-sorbed contaminants in the water system. In this study, we applied the Soil and Cesium Transport model, which we have developed, to predict a long-term cesium distribution in the Fukushima area, based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and simple sediment discharge formulas. The model consists of calculation schemes of soil erosion, transportation and deposition, as well as cesium transport and its future distribution. Since not all the actual data on parameters is available, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted here to find the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated that a large amount of total soil loss remained in slope, and the residual sediment was transported to rivers, deposited in rivers and lakes, or transported farther downstream to the river mouths. Most of the sediment deposited in rivers and lakes consists of sand. On the other hand, most of the silt and clay portions transported to river were transported downstream to the river mouths. The rate of sediment deposition in the Abukuma River basin was three times as high as those of the other 13 river basins. This may be due to the larger catchment area and more moderate channel slope of the Abukuma River basin

  10. Long-term environmental stewardship.

    SciTech Connect

    Nagy, Michael David

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this Supplemental Information Source Document is to effectively describe Long-Term Environmental Stewardship (LTES) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). More specifically, this document describes the LTES and Long-Term Stewardship (LTS) Programs, distinguishes between the LTES and LTS Programs, and summarizes the current status of the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project.

  11. The development of methods for the prediction of primary creep behavior in metals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zerwekh, R. P.

    1978-01-01

    The applicability of a thermodynamic constitutive theory of deformation to the prediction of primary creep and creep strain relaxation behavior in metals is examined. Constitutive equations derived from the theory are subjected to a parametric analysis in order to determine the influence of several parameters on the curve forms generated by the equations. A computer program is developed which enables the solution of a generalized constitutive equation using experimental data as input. Several metals were tested to form a data base of primary creep and relaxation behavior. The extent to which these materials conformed to the constitutive equation showed wide variability, with the alloy Ti-6Al-4V exhibiting the most consistent results. Accordingly, most of the analysis is concentrated upon data from that alloy, although creep and relaxation data from all the materials tested are presented. Experimental methods are outlined as well as some variations in methods of analysis. Various theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed.

  12. Ultrasonic Method for Prediction of Residual Life of Creep Damaged Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong-Yeol; Kim, Hak-Joon; Song, Sung-Jin; Kim, Bum-Joon; Lim, Byeong-Soo

    2009-03-01

    In the previous study, residual life time of creep damaged 9Cr-2W steel specimens were evaluated using attenuation of ultrasound and area fraction of precipitates. Since attenuation coefficients and area fraction of precipitates were increased as increasing their aging time. However, cause of increasing attenuation of ultrasound is not only increase in precipitates but also grain growth. So, in this study, we calculated attenuation coefficients for grain growth using the single scattering model in order to find effect grain growth in the creep damaged materials on attenuation. Then, we extract attenuation coefficients for precipitates from the measured ultrasonic attenuation of creep damaged specimens by subtracting attenuation coefficients for grain boundaries using the calculated attenuation. And, we predicted residual life time of the creep damaged specimens by using the attenuation for precipitates.

  13. Can Echocardiography, Especially Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion Measurement, Predict Pulmonary Hypertension and Improve Prognosis in Patients on Long-Term Dialysis?

    PubMed

    Grabysa, Radosław; Wańkowicz, Zofia

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to pulmonary hypertension (PH) as a strong and independent risk factor for adverse outcome in the population of patients on long-term dialysis. Published results of observational studies indicate that the problem of PH refers mostly to patients on long-term hemodialysis and is less common in peritoneal dialysis patients. The main cause of this complication is proximal location of the arteriovenous fistula, causing chronically increased cardiac output. This paper presents the usefulness of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) for measurement of the Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion (TAPSE) in the early diagnosis of PH in dialysis patients. Echocardiographic diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension with TTE, especially in the case of HD patients, ensures the selection of the proper location for the first arteriovenous fistula and facilitates the decision to switch to peritoneal dialysis or to accelerate the process of qualification for kidney transplantation. PMID:26697754

  14. Creep-Fatigue Relationsihps in Electroactive Polymer Systems and Predicted Effects in an Actuator Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vinogradov, Aleksandra M.; Ihlefeld, Curtis M.; Henslee, Issac

    2009-01-01

    The paper concerns the time-dependent behavior of electroactive polymers (EAP) and their use in advanced intelligent structures for space exploration. Innovative actuator design for low weight and low power valves required in small plants planned for use on the moon for chemical analysis is discussed. It is shown that in-depth understanding of cyclic loading effects observed through accelerated creep rates due to creep-fatigue interaction in polymers is critical in terms of proper functioning of EAP based actuator devices. In the paper, an overview of experimental results concerning the creep properties and cyclic creep response of a thin film piezoelectric polymer polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) is presented. The development of a constitutive creep-fatigue interaction model to predict the durability and service life of electroactive polymers is discussed. A novel method is proposed to predict damage accumulation and fatigue life of polymers under oyclic loading conditions in the presence of creep. The study provides a basis for ongoing research initiatives at the NASA Kennedy Space Center in the pursuit of new technologies using EAP as active elements for lunar exploration systems.

  15. Presynaptic long-term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ying; Calakos, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is a major cellular substrate for learning, memory, and behavioral adaptation. Although early examples of long-term synaptic plasticity described a mechanism by which postsynaptic signal transduction was potentiated, it is now apparent that there is a vast array of mechanisms for long-term synaptic plasticity that involve modifications to either or both the presynaptic terminal and postsynaptic site. In this article, we discuss current and evolving approaches to identify presynaptic mechanisms as well as discuss their limitations. We next provide examples of the diverse circuits in which presynaptic forms of long-term synaptic plasticity have been described and discuss the potential contribution this form of plasticity might add to circuit function. Finally, we examine the present evidence for the molecular pathways and cellular events underlying presynaptic long-term synaptic plasticity. PMID:24146648

  16. Rheological Characteristics of Weak Rock Mass and Effects on the Long-Term Stability of Slopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Tianhong; Xu, Tao; Liu, Hongyuan; Zhang, Chunming; Wang, Shanyong; Rui, Yongqin; Shen, Li

    2014-11-01

    The creep deformation behavior of the northern slope of an open-pit mine is introduced. Direct shear creep tests are then conducted for the samples taken from the northern slope to study the rheological characteristics of the rock mass. The experimental results are analyzed afterwards using an empirical method to develop a rheological model for the rock mass. The proposed rheological model is finally applied to understand the creep behavior of the northern slope, predict the long-term stability, and guide appropriate measures to be taken at suitable times to increase the factor of safety to ensure stability. Through this study, a failure criterion is proposed to predict the long-term stability of the slope based on the rheological characteristics of the rock mass and a critical deformation rate is adopted to determine when appropriate measures should be taken to ensure slope stability. The method has been successfully applied for stability analysis and engineering management of the toppling and slippage of the northern slope of the open-pit mine. This success in application indicates that it is theoretically accurate, practically feasible, and highly cost-effective.

  17. Estimation of long-term stability of mine pillars in underground pit

    SciTech Connect

    Yamashita, S.; Sugimoto, F.; Yamauchi, M.; Furuzumi, M.

    1996-12-01

    Recently in Japan, unexpected degradation (surface subsidence) at old underground quarry sites, such as `Ohya-Ishi` (pumice tuff) pit field has often occurred. At these quarry sites, the excavation was started 20 or 30 years ago with mechanical chain cutter and the Room and Pillar method, and stopped 7 or more years ago. Therefore, a reliable method has been required for an estimation of long term mechanical properties of the rock and for an observation of a stability of rock-pillars or structures. In this study, creep tests under uniaxial compressive load were carried out on the `Ohya-Ishi`, with the aim of estimating the long term stability of the rock. From these results, a creep mechanism of the rock was discussed using the failure mechanism hypothesis proposed by Bieniawski and by others. On this basis, critical time to failure was predicted by the relationship between the logarithm of life time and stress ratio of the sustained axial creep load. Additionally, outline of the monitoring system of AE/MS activity in the field, which have set by the Ohya Aria Consolidate Public Corporation and the others to predict or to prevent the degradation of those residual pillars, is to be reported.

  18. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components for the space shuttle thermal protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Cramer, B. A.

    1976-01-01

    A method of analysis was developed for predicting permanent cyclic creep deflections in stiffened panel structures. This method uses creep equations based on cyclic tensile creep tests and a computer program to predict panel deflections as a function of mission cycle. Four materials were investigated - a titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V), a cobalt alloy (L605), and two nickel alloys (Rene'41 and TDNiCr). Steady-state and cyclic creep response data were obtained by testing tensile specimens fabricated from thin gage sheet (0.025 and 0.63 cm nominal). Steady-state and cyclic creep equations were developed which describe creep as a function of time, temperature and load. Tests were also performed on subsize (6.35 x 30.5 cm) rib and corrugation stiffened panels. These tests were used to correlate creep responses between elemental specimens and panels. The panel response was analyzed by use of a specially written computer program.

  19. Long term complications of diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long term complications of diabetes To use the sharing ... sores and infections. If it goes on too long, your toes, foot, or leg may need to ...

  20. Abdominal Pain, Long-Term

    MedlinePlus

    MENU Return to Web version Abdominal Pain, Long-term See complete list of charts. Ongoing or recurrent abdominal pain, also called chronic pain, may be difficult to diagnose, causing frustration for ...

  1. GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Littnerova, Simona; Kala, Petr; Jarkovsky, Jiri; Kubkova, Lenka; Prymusova, Krystyna; Kubena, Petr; Tesak, Martin; Toman, Ondrej; Poloczek, Martin; Spinar, Jindrich; Dusek, Ladislav; Parenica, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    Aim To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. Methods and Results A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores—the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE—showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73–0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80–0.83). Conclusions All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model. PMID:25893501

  2. Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Santamarina, Estevo; Maisterra, Olga; Jacas, Carlos; Molina, Carlos; Quintana, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients' quality of life (QoL). The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015). Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005). In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke. PMID:26999113

  3. Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Santamarina, Estevo; Maisterra, Olga; Jacas, Carlos; Molina, Carlos; Quintana, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients’ quality of life (QoL). The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015). Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005). In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke. PMID:26999113

  4. A Novel and Simple Methodology for Predicting Creep Life of Welded Pressure Component Employing Strain Energy Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, T.; Kanapathipillai, S.; Chowdhury, M.

    2013-10-01

    Almost all of the pressure components produced at present are produced by welding and a good majority of them are used for high temperature application where creep damage can occur and requires the attention of the pressure equipment designers. An accurate creep life prediction model is required to predict the life of such pressure components. All of the creep life prediction models available today are either inaccurate or too cumbersome to apply. There is a need for an accurate creep life prediction model that would overcome the shortcomings of the existing models. Research team at UNSW have developed a creep life prediction model [Mahmood et al., in Front Mech Eng, 8(2):181-186, 2013; Mahmood et al., in Eng Integr J, 34:6-13, 2013; Mahmood et al. in Intl J Reliab Saf Eng Syst Struct D, 1(1):43-51, 2011] that accurately predicted the creep life of seamless pipes when applied to them. This paper is an extension of previous work and investigates the accuracy of the model when applied to a thick-walled pipe having a circumferential weld to predict the creep life of a welded pressure component. The paper shows that the proposed model can predict the creep life of the vessel with an error of less than 1 %.

  5. A model of compaction creep in carbonates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keszthelyi, Daniel; Jamtveit, Bjørn; Dysthe, Dag Kristian

    2015-04-01

    Rocks in compressional stress conditions are subject to long-term creep deformations. We created a simple conceptual micomechanical model of creep in rocks combining microscopic fracturing and pressure solution. This was then scaled up to macroscopic scale by a statistical mechanical approach to predict strain rate at core scale. The model uses no fitting parameter and have a few input parameters: effective stress, porosity, pore size distribution, temperature and water saturation. Internal parameters are Young's modulus, interfacial energy of wet calcite and dissolution rates of calcite, all of which are measurable independently. Existing long-term creep experiments were used to verify the model which was able to predict the magnitude of the resulting strain in largely different effective stress, temperature and water saturation conditions. The model was also able to predict the compaction of a producing chalk reservoir with a good agreement. Further generalization of the model might function as a general theory of long-term creep of rocks in compressional settings.

  6. Evaluating the predictability of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes integrating long term eddy-covariance and biometric observations with multi-model ensembles (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalhais, N.; van Oijen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Macbean, N. L.; Peylin, P. P.; Rammig, A.; Rolinski, S.; Thum, T.; Granier, A.; Loustau, D.; Schuermann, G. J.; Zaehle, S.; Beer, C.; Mahecha, M. D.; Richardson, A. D.; Reichstein, M.

    2013-12-01

    Discrepancies between future projections of land carbon fluxes originate from different process representations, but also from differences in model parameterization. Model parameters are typically drawn from disparate literature sources, individual site measurements, or expert judgment, allowing for large variability in the actual parameters used and thus model functional responses. In addition, differences in meteorological forcing datasets and modeling setups may contribute strongly to differences at inter-annual and longer time scales. Along with the known differences in the mean model behavior under future climate scenarios, there are likely also differences in model responses to increased climate variability, and extreme events, which have yet to be assessed. In this study we developed an in situ model data fusion experiment to explore the contribution of diverse long-term observations in addressing the divergence of modeled projections of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes until 2100, along with responses to climate variability and extreme events. We focus on two forest sites in France - Hesse and Le Bray - for which carbon and water fluxes have been observed for more than ten years using eddy covariance methodology. The consolidated set of eddy covariance observations and respective uncertainties is complemented with biometric information on aboveground biomass, biomass increments and soil carbon stocks. These datasets are simultaneously used as constraints in the inverse parameter optimization of an ensemble of terrestrial biogeochemical models ranging from specific forest models to generic land surface schemes, namely: BASFOR, FöBAAR, JSBACH, LPJ and ORCHIDEE. The experimental setup includes the harmonization of the optimization by forcing and constraining the models with the same observations, and through a common cost function. The set of multiple constraints ensures that the models simulate the responses of ecosystem fluxes to environmental conditions

  7. Exploring the role of model-data-fusion approaches in constraining the long term predictability of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes with multi-model ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalhais, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Discrepancies between future projections of land carbon fluxes originate from different process representations, but also from differences in model parameterization. Between model divergence stems mostly from different modeling structures, parameterizations and initial conditions. In addition to the known differences in the mean model behavior under future climate scenarios, there are likely also differences in model responses to increased climate variability, and extreme events, which have yet to be assessed. Here we present an in situ model data fusion experiment to explore the contribution of diverse long-term observations in addressing the divergence in responses to climate variability and extreme events between different modeled projections of ecosystem water and carbon fluxes until 2100. We focus on two forest sites in France - Hesse and Le Bray. At these sites the carbon and water fluxes have been observed for more than ten years using eddy covariance. A consolidated set of flux observations and respective uncertainties is complemented with biometric information on aboveground biomass, biomass increments and soil carbon stocks. These datasets are used as constraints in the inverse parameter optimization of an ensemble of terrestrial biogeochemical models ranging from specific forest models to generic land surface schemes, namely: BASFOR, FöBAAR, JSBACH, LPJ and ORCHIDEE. The set of multiple constraints ensures that the models simulate the responses of ecosystem fluxes to environmental conditions in agreement with ecosystem pools. Despite significant improvements in modeling performance, we observe modest improvements in estimating the interannual variability in carbon fluxes and pools. The divergence in long-term trends until 2100 between models is reduced after optimization. However, an increase in the variability of net ecosystem fluxes is observed, which results from the higher interannual variability in the climate scenarios, as well as the growing

  8. Strainrange partitioning life predictions of the long time metal properties council creep-fatigue tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The method of strainrange partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the time- and cycle-fraction approach. The method of strainrange partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the time- and cycle-fraction approach.

  9. Predictions of long-term behavior of a large-volume pilot test for CO2 geological storage in a saline formation in the Central Valley, California

    SciTech Connect

    Doughty, Christine; Myer, Larry R.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2008-11-01

    The long-term behavior of a CO{sub 2} plume injected into a deep saline formation is investigated, focusing on mechanisms that lead to plume stabilization. Key measures are plume migration distance and the time evolution of CO{sub 2} phase-partitioning, which are examined by developing a numerical model of the subsurface at a proposed power plant with CO{sub 2} capture in the San Joaquin Valley, California, where a large-volume pilot test of CO{sub 2} injection will be conducted. The numerical model simulates a four-year CO{sub 2} injection period and the subsequent evolution of the CO{sub 2} plume until it stabilizes. Sensitivity studies are carried out to investigate the effect of poorly constrained model parameters permeability, permeability anisotropy, and residual gas saturation.

  10. Does anxiety predict the use of urgent care by people with long term conditions? A systematic review with meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Blakeley, Claire; Blakemore, Amy; Hunter, Cheryl; Guthrie, Else; Tomenson, Barbara; Dickens, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Objective The role of anxiety in the use of urgent care in people with long term conditions is not fully understood. A systematic review was conducted with meta-analysis to examine the relationship between anxiety and future use of urgent healthcare among individuals with one of four long term conditions: diabetes; coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. Methods Electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO, CINAHL, the British Nursing Library and the Cochrane Library were conducted These searches were supplemented by hand-searching bibliographies, citation tracing eligible studies and asking experts within the field about relevant studies. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they: a) used a standardised measure of anxiety, b) used prospective cohort design, c) included adult patients diagnosed with coronary heart disease (CHD), asthma, diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), d) assessed urgent healthcare use prospectively. Data regarding participants, methodology, and association between anxiety and urgent care use was extracted from studies eligible for inclusion. Odds ratios were calculated for each study and pooled using random effects models. Results 8 independent studies were identified for inclusion in the meta-analysis, with a total of 28,823 individual patients. Pooled effects indicate that anxiety is not associated with an increase in the use of urgent care (OR = 1.078, p = 0.476), regardless of the type of service, or type of medical condition. Conclusions Anxiety is not associated with increased use of urgent care. This finding is in contrast to similar studies which have investigated the role of depression as a risk factor for use of urgent care. PMID:25149033

  11. Structural integrity of the corpus callosum predicts long-term transfer of fluid intelligence-related training gains in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Dominik; Fischer, Florian Udo; Fesenbeckh, Johanna; Yakushev, Igor; Lelieveld, Irene Maria; Scheurich, Armin; Schermuly, Ingrid; Zschutschke, Lisa; Fellgiebel, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Although cognitive training usually improves cognitive test performance, the capability to transfer these training gains into respective or functionally related cognitive domains varies significantly. Since most studies demonstrate rather limited transfer effects in older adults, aging might be an important factor in transfer capability differences. This study investigated the transfer capability of logical reasoning training gains to a measure of Fluid Intelligence (Gf) in relation to age, general intelligence, and brain structural integrity as measured by diffusion tensor imaging. In a group of 41 highly educated healthy elderly, 71% demonstrated successful transfer immediately after a 4-week training session (i.e. short-term transfer). In a subgroup of 22% of subjects transfer maintained over a 3-month follow-up period (i.e. long-term transfer). While short-term transfer was not related to structural integrity, long-term transfer was associated with increased structural integrity in corpus and genu of the corpus callosum. Since callosal structural integrity was also related to age (in the present and foregoing studies), previously observed associations between age and transfer might be moderated by the structural integrity. Surprisingly, age was not directly associated with transfer in this study which could be explained by the multi-dependency of the structural integrity (modulating factors beside age, e.g. genetics). In this highly educated sample, general intelligence was not related to transfer suggesting that high intelligence is not sufficient for transfer in normal aging. Further studies are needed to reveal the interaction of transfer, age, and structural integrity and delineate mechanisms of age-dependent transfer capabilities. PMID:22965837

  12. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  13. Development of a simplified procedure for rocket engine thrust chamber life prediction with creep

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badlani, M. L.; Porowski, J. S.; Odonnell, W. J.; Peterson, D. B.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical method for predicting engine thrust chamber life is developed. The method accounts for high pressure differentials and time-dependent creep effects both of which are significant in limiting the useful life of the shuttle main engine thrust chamber. The hot-gas-wall ligaments connecting adjacent cooling channels ribs and separating the coolant flow from the combustion gas are subjected to a high pressure induced primary stress superimposed on an alternating cyclic thermal strain field. The pressure load combined with strain-controlled cycling produces creep ratcheting and consequent bulging and thinning of these ligaments. This mechanism of creep-enhanced ratcheting is analyzed for determining the hot-gas-wall deformation and accumulated strain. Results are confirmed by inelastic finite element analysis. Fatigue and creep rupture damage as well as plastic tensile instability are evaluated as potential failure modes. It is demonstrated for the NARloy Z cases analyzed that when pressure differentials across the ligament are high, creep rupture damage is often the primary failure mode for the cycle times considered.

  14. Environmental effects on long term behavior of composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singhal, S. N.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    Model equations are presented for approximate methods simulating the long-term behavior of composite materials and structures in hot/humid service environments. These equations allow laminate property upgradings with time, and can account for the effects of service environments on creep response. These methodologies are illustrated for various individual and coupled temperature/moisture, longitudinal/transverse, and composite material type cases. Creep deformation is noted to rise dramatically for cases of matrix-borne, but not of fiber-borne, loading in hot, humid environments; the coupled influence of temperature and moisture is greater than a mere combination of their individual influences.

  15. Finite Element Creep Damage Analyses and Life Prediction of P91 Pipe Containing Local Wall Thinning Defect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Jilin; Zhou, Changyu

    2016-03-01

    Creep continuum damage finite element (FE) analyses were performed for P91 steel pipe containing local wall thinning (LWT) defect subjected to monotonic internal pressure, monotonic bending moment and combined internal pressure and bending moment by orthogonal experimental design method. The creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect under different load conditions were obtained. Then, the creep damage life formulas were regressed based on the creep damage life results from FE method. At the same time a skeletal point rupture stress was found and used for life prediction which was compared with creep damage lives obtained by continuum damage analyses. From the results, the failure lives of pipe containing LWT defect can be obtained accurately by using skeletal point rupture stress method. Finally, the influence of LWT defect geometry was analysed, which indicated that relative defect depth was the most significant factor for creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect.

  16. Long Term Illness and Wages

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandy, Robert; Elliott, Robert R.

    2005-01-01

    Long-term illness (LTI) is a more prevalent workplace risk than fatal accidents but there is virtually no evidence for compensating differentials for a broad measure of LTI. In 1990 almost 3.4 percent of the U.K. adult population suffered from a LTI caused solely by their working conditions. This paper provides the first estimates of compensating…

  17. A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

    PubMed Central

    Tamirou, Farah; Lauwerys, Bernard R; Dall'Era, Maria; Mackay, Meggan; Rovin, Brad; Cervera, Ricard; Houssiau, Frédéric A

    2015-01-01

    Background Although an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a recent analysis performed on patients randomised in the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial, demonstrating that a target value of 0.8 g/day at month 12 optimised sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of good renal outcome. The objective of the current work is to validate this target in another LN study, namely the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial (MNT). Methods Long-term (at least 7 years) renal function data were available for 90 patients randomised in the MNT. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to test the performance of proteinuria measured within the 1st year as short-term predictor of long-term renal outcome. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results After 12 months of treatment, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day best predicted good renal outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 71% and 75%, respectively. The PPV was high (94%) but the NPV low (29%). Addition of the requirement of urine red blood cells ≤5/hpf as response criteria at month 12 reduced sensitivity from 71% to 41%. Conclusions In this cohort of mainly Caucasian patients suffering from a first episode of LN in most cases, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day at month 12 best predicts good outcome at 7 years and inclusion of haematuria in the set of criteria at month 12 undermines the sensitivity of early proteinuria decrease for the prediction of good outcome. The robustness of these conclusions stems from the very similar results obtained in two distinct LN cohorts. Trial registration number: NCT00204022. PMID:26629352

  18. The effects of physical aging at elevated temperatures on the viscoelastic creep on IM7/K3B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gates, Thomas S.; Feldman, Mark

    1994-01-01

    Physical aging at elevated temperature of the advanced composite IM7/K3B was investigated through the use of creep compliance tests. Testing consisted of short term isothermal, creep/recovery with the creep segments performed at constant load. The matrix dominated transverse tensile and in-plane shear behavior were measured at temperatures ranging from 200 to 230 C. Through the use of time based shifting procedures, the aging shift factors, shift rates and momentary master curve parameters were found at each temperature. These material parameters were used as input to a predictive methodology, which was based upon effective time theory and linear viscoelasticity combined with classical lamination theory. Long term creep compliance test data was compared to predictions to verify the method. The model was then used to predict the long term creep behavior for several general laminates.

  19. Usefulness of plasma renin activity in predicting haemodynamic and clinical responses and survival during long term converting enzyme inhibition in severe chronic heart failure. Experience in 100 consecutive patients.

    PubMed Central

    Packer, M; Medina, N; Yushak, M; Lee, W H

    1985-01-01

    The relation between plasma renin activity before treatment and the haemodynamic and clinical responses to converting enzyme inhibition was determined in 100 consecutive patients with severe chronic heart failure who were treated with captopril or enalapril. Initial doses of captopril produced significant increases in cardiac index and decreases in left ventricular filling pressure, mean arterial pressure, mean right atrial pressure, heart rate, and systemic vascular resistance that varied linearly with the pretreatment value for plasma renin activity. In contrast, there was no relation between the pretreatment activity and the magnitude of haemodynamic improvement after 1-3 months of treatment with the converting enzyme inhibitors, and, consequently, a similar proportion of patients with a high (greater than 6 ng/ml/h; greater than 4.62 mmol/l/h), intermediate (2-6 ng/ml/h; 1.54-4.62 mmol/l/h), and low (less than 2 ng/ml/h; less than 1.54 mmol/l/h) pretreatment value improved clinically during long term treatment (64%, 60%, and 64% respectively). Long term survival after one, two, and three years was similar in the three groups. Estimating the degree of activation of the renin-angiotensin system by measuring pretreatment plasma renin activity fails to predict the long term haemodynamic or clinical responses to converting enzyme inhibitors in patients with severe chronic heart failure, and thus appears to be of limited value in selecting those patients likely to benefit from treatment with these drugs. PMID:2994697

  20. Annual Rates on Seismogenic Italian Sources with Models of Long-Term Predictability for the Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Console, Rodolfo

    2016-04-01

    The present study is carried out in the framework of the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) INGV, under the agreement signed in 2015 with the Department of Civil Protection for developing a new model of seismic hazard of the country that can update the current reference (MPS04-S1; zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it and esse1.mi.ingv.it) released between 2004 and 2006. In this initiative, we participate with the Long-Term Stress Transfer (LTST) Model to provide the annual occurrence rate of a seismic event on the entire Italian territory, from a Mw4.5 minimum magnitude, considering bins of 0.1 magnitude units on geographical cells of 0.1° x 0.1°. Our methodology is based on the fusion of a statistical time-dependent renewal model (Brownian Passage Time, BPT, Matthews at al., 2002) with a physical model which considers the permanent effect in terms of stress that undergoes a seismogenic source in result of the earthquakes that occur on surrounding sources. For each considered catalog (historical, instrumental and individual seismogenic sources) we determined a distinct rate value for each cell of 0.1° x 0.1° for the next 50 yrs. If the cell falls within one of the sources in question, we adopted the respective value of rate, which is referred only to the magnitude of the event characteristic. This value of rate is divided by the number of grid cells that fall on the horizontal projection of the source. If instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the average value of the rate obtained from the historical and the instrumental catalog, using the method of Frankel (1995). The annual occurrence rate was computed for any of the three considered distributions (Poisson, BPT and BPT with inclusion of stress transfer).

  1. miR-155 Drives Metabolic Reprogramming of ER+ Breast Cancer Cells Following Long-Term Estrogen Deprivation and Predicts Clinical Response to Aromatase Inhibitors.

    PubMed

    Bacci, Marina; Giannoni, Elisa; Fearns, Antony; Ribas, Ricardo; Gao, Qiong; Taddei, Maria Letizia; Pintus, Gianfranco; Dowsett, Mitch; Isacke, Clare M; Martin, Lesley-Ann; Chiarugi, Paola; Morandi, Andrea

    2016-03-15

    Aromatase inhibitors (AI) have become the first-line endocrine treatment of choice for postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive (ER(+)) breast cancer patients, but resistance remains a major challenge. Metabolic reprogramming is a hallmark of cancer and may contribute to drug resistance. Here, we investigated the link between altered breast cancer metabolism and AI resistance using AI-resistant and sensitive breast cancer cells, patient tumor samples, and AI-sensitive human xenografts. We found that long-term estrogen deprivation (LTED), a model of AI resistance, was associated with increased glycolysis dependency. Targeting the glycolysis-priming enzyme hexokinase-2 (HK2) in combination with the AI, letrozole, synergistically reduced cell viability in AI-sensitive models. Conversely, MCF7-LTED cells, which displayed a high degree of metabolic plasticity, switched to oxidative phosphorylation when glycolysis was impaired. This effect was ER dependent as breast cancer cells with undetectable levels of ER failed to exhibit metabolic plasticity. MCF7-LTED cells were also more motile than their parental counterparts and assumed amoeboid-like invasive abilities upon glycolysis inhibition with 2-deoxyglucose (2-DG). Mechanistic investigations further revealed an important role for miR-155 in metabolic reprogramming. Suppression of miR-155 resulted in sensitization of MCF7-LTED cells to metformin treatment and impairment of 2-DG-induced motility. Notably, high baseline miR-155 expression correlated with poor response to AI therapy in a cohort of ER(+) breast cancers treated with neoadjuvant anastrozole. These findings suggest that miR-155 represents a biomarker potentially capable of identifying the subset of breast cancers most likely to adapt to and relapse on AI therapy. PMID:26795347

  2. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. PMID:23177019

  3. Use of laboratory triaxial-creep data and finite-element analysis to predict observed creep behavior of leached salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Preece, D.S.; Stone, C.M.

    1982-08-01

    An increasing interest is being shown worldwide in using leached salt caverns to store oil and natural gas. A critical factor in the use of existing caverns and the design of new ones is the creep behavior of the salt surrounding the caverns. An understanding of this behavior is being gained by using laboratory triaxial creep data as material property input to finite element computer programs designed to calculate displacements and stresses due to creep. An important step in verifying these predictive methods is the comparison of field data from existing caverns with finite element analyses which incorporate the material properties and geometry of each site. This comparison has been made for caverns in the Eminence Dome (Mississippi), West Hackberry Dome (Louisiana), and Bayou Chocktaw Dome (Louisiana) with reasonably good correlation being obtained between measured and predicted volumetric response of the caverns. These comparisons are discussed in this paper.

  4. Investigation of the effect of aggregates' morphology on concrete creep properties by numerical simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Lavergne, F.; Sab, K.; Sanahuja, J.; Bornert, M.; Toulemonde, C.

    2015-05-15

    Prestress losses due to creep of concrete is a matter of interest for long-term operations of nuclear power plants containment buildings. Experimental studies by Granger (1995) have shown that concretes with similar formulations have different creep behaviors. The aim of this paper is to numerically investigate the effect of size distribution and shape of elastic inclusions on the long-term creep of concrete. Several microstructures with prescribed size distribution and spherical or polyhedral shape of inclusions are generated. By using the 3D numerical homogenization procedure for viscoelastic microstructures proposed by Šmilauer and Bažant (2010), it is shown that the size distribution and shape of inclusions have no measurable influence on the overall creep behavior. Moreover, a mean-field estimate provides close predictions. An Interfacial Transition Zone was introduced according to the model of Nadeau (2003). It is shown that this feature of concrete's microstructure can explain differences between creep behaviors.

  5. Long-term data archiving

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, David Steven

    2009-01-01

    Long term data archiving has much value for chemists, not only to retain access to research and product development records, but also to enable new developments and new discoveries. There are some recent regulatory requirements (e.g., FDA 21 CFR Part 11), but good science and good business both benefit regardless. A particular example of the benefits of and need for long term data archiving is the management of data from spectroscopic laboratory instruments. The sheer amount of spectroscopic data is increasing at a scary rate, and the pressures to archive come from the expense to create the data (or recreate it if it is lost) as well as its high information content. The goal of long-term data archiving is to save and organize instrument data files as well as any needed meta data (such as sample ID, LIMS information, operator, date, time, instrument conditions, sample type, excitation details, environmental parameters, etc.). This editorial explores the issues involved in long-term data archiving using the example of Raman spectral databases. There are at present several such databases, including common data format libraries and proprietary libraries. However, such databases and libraries should ultimately satisfy stringent criteria for long term data archiving, including readability for long times into the future, robustness to changes in computer hardware and operating systems, and use of public domain data formats. The latter criterion implies the data format should be platform independent and the tools to create the data format should be easily and publicly obtainable or developable. Several examples of attempts at spectral libraries exist, such as the ASTM ANDI format, and the JCAMP-DX format. On the other hand, proprietary library spectra can be exchanged and manipulated using proprietary tools. As the above examples have deficiencies according to the three long term data archiving criteria, Extensible Markup Language (XML; a product of the World Wide Web

  6. Mechanisms Governing the Creep Behavior of High Temperature Alloys for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Vasudevan, Vijay; Carroll, Laura; Sham, Sam

    2015-04-06

    This research project, which includes collaborators from INL and ORNL, focuses on the study of alloy 617 and alloy 800H that are candidates for applications as intermediate heat exchangers in GEN IV nuclear reactors, with an emphasis on the effects of grain size, grain boundaries and second phases on the creep properties; the mechanisms of dislocation creep, diffusional creep and cavitation; the onset of tertiary creep; and theoretical modeling for long-term predictions of materials behavior and for high temperature alloy design.

  7. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-07-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  8. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-05-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  9. Monitoring microstructural evolution of alloy 617 with non-linear acoustics for remaining useful life prediction; multiaxial creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting

    SciTech Connect

    Lissenden, Cliff; Hassan, Tasnin; Rangari, Vijaya

    2014-10-30

    The research built upon a prior investigation to develop a unified constitutive model for design-­by-­analysis of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) design of next generation nuclear plants (NGNPs). Model development requires a set of failure data from complex mechanical experiments to characterize the material behavior. Therefore uniaxial and multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting tests were conducted on the nickel-­base Alloy 617 at 850 and 950°C. The time dependence of material behavior, and the interaction of time dependent behavior (e.g., creep) with ratcheting, which is an increase in the cyclic mean strain under load-­controlled cycling, are major concerns for NGNP design. This research project aimed at characterizing the microstructure evolution mechanisms activated in Alloy 617 by mechanical loading and dwell times at elevated temperature. The acoustic harmonic generation method was researched for microstructural characterization. It is a nonlinear acoustics method with excellent potential for nondestructive evaluation, and even online continuous monitoring once high temperature sensors become available. It is unique because it has the ability to quantitatively characterize microstructural features well before macroscale defects (e.g., cracks) form. The nonlinear acoustics beta parameter was shown to correlate with microstructural evolution using a systematic approach to handle the complexity of multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting deformation. Mechanical testing was conducted to provide a full spectrum of data for: thermal aging, tensile creep, uniaxial fatigue, uniaxial creep-­fatigue, uniaxial creep-ratcheting, multiaxial creep-fatigue, and multiaxial creep-­ratcheting. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Optical Microscopy were conducted to correlate the beta parameter with individual microstructure mechanisms. We researched

  10. Prediction of subsidence resulting from creep closure of solutioned-mined caverns in salt domes

    SciTech Connect

    Neal, J.T.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction of subsidence rates over a range of areal configurations of solution-mined caverns in salt domes is possible, based on some fifty years of history in solution mining. Several approaches contribute to predictions: site-specific observations obtained from subsidence monitoring; numerical modeling, now becoming more practicable and credible; salt-creep data from testing; and rule-of-thumb methods, based on experience. All of these approaches contribute to understanding subsidence but none are totally reliable alone. The example of subsidence occurring at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites demonstrates several principles of cavern creep closure, the main cause of the subsidence, and shows that reliable projections of future subsidence are possible. 13 refs., 6 figs.

  11. The Potential United Kingdom Energy Gap and Creep Life Prediction Methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The United Kingdom faces a looming energy gap with around 20 pct of its generating capacity due for closure in the next 10 to 15 years as a result of plant age and new European legislation on environmental protection and safety at work. A number of solutions exist for this problem including the use of new materials so that new plants can operate at higher temperatures, new technologies related to carbon capture and gasification, development of renewable resources, and less obviously the use of accurate models for predicting creep life. This article reviews, with illustrations, some of the more applicable and successful creep prediction methodologies used by academics and industrialists and highlights how these techniques can help alleviate the looming energy gap. The role that these approaches can play in solving the energy gap is highlighted throughout.

  12. Combined Usefulness of the Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Predicting the Long-Term Adverse Events in Patients Who Have Undergone Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with a Drug-Eluting Stent

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Kyoung Im; Ann, Soe Hee; Singh, Gillian Balbir; Her, Ae-Young; Shin, Eun-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the combined usefulness of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting the long-term adverse events in patients who have undergone percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with a drug-eluting stent (DES). Methods 798 patients with stable angina, unstable angina and non-ST elevated myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) who underwent elective successful PCI with DES were consecutively enrolled. The value of PLR and NLR in predicting adverse coronary artery disease (CAD) events and the correlations between these markers and adverse events (all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and nonfatal myocardial infarction) were analyzed. Results The follow-up period was 62.8 ± 28.8 months. When patients were classified into four groups according to the optimal cut-off values for the PLR and NLR on receiver operating characteristic analysis, patients with a high PLR (>128) and high NLR (>2.6) had the highest occurrence of adverse events among the groups. On Cox multivariate analysis, the NLR >2.6 [hazard ratio (HR) 2.352, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.286 to 4.339, p = 0.006] and the PLR >128 (HR 2.372, 95% CI 1.305 to 3.191, p = 0.005) were independent predictors of long-term adverse events after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. Moreover, both a PLR >128 and a NLR >2.6 were the strongest predictors of adverse events (HR 2.686, 95% CI 1.452 to 4.970, p = 0.002). Conclusion High pre-intervention PLR and NLR, especially when combined, are independent predictors of long-term adverse clinical outcomes such as all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and myocardial infarction in patients with unstable angina and NSTEMI who have undergone successful PCI with DES. PMID:26207383

  13. Prediction of the Creep-Fatigue Lifetime of Alloy 617: An Application of Non-destructive Evaluation and Information Integration

    SciTech Connect

    Vivek Agarwal; Richard Wright; Timothy Roney

    2014-08-01

    A relatively simple method using the nominal constant average stress information and the creep rupture model is developed to predict the creep-fatigue lifetime of Alloy 617, in terms of time to rupture. The nominal constant average stress is computed using the stress relaxation curve. The predicted time to rupture can be converted to number of cycles to failure using the strain range, the strain rate during each cycle, and the hold time information. The predicted creep-fatigue lifetime is validated against the experimental measurements of the creep-fatigue lifetime collected using conventional laboratory creep-fatigue tests. High temperature creep-fatigue tests of Alloy 617 were conducted in air at 950°C with a tensile hold period of up to 1800s in a cycle at total strain ranges of 0.3% and 0.6%. It was observed that the proposed method is conservative in that the predicted lifetime is less than the experimentally determined values. The approach would be relevant to calculate the remaining useful life to a component like a steam generator that might fail by the creep-fatigue mechanism.

  14. Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to Predict Long Term Outcomes in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L.; Brewer, Neil

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS).…

  15. Predicting landscape-scale CO2 flux at a pasture and rice paddy with long-term hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthes, J. H.; Knox, S. H.; Sturtevant, C.; Sonnentag, O.; Verfaillie, J.; Baldocchi, D.

    2015-03-01

    Measurements of hyperspectral canopy reflectance provide a detailed snapshot of information regarding canopy biochemistry, structure and physiology. In this study, we collected five years of repeated canopy hyperspectral reflectance measurements for a total of over 100 site visits within the flux footprints of two eddy covariance towers at a pasture and rice paddy in Northern California. The vegetation at both sites exhibited dynamic phenology, with significant inter-annual variability in the timing of seasonal patterns that propagated into inter-annual variability in measured hyperspectral reflectance. We used partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to leverage the information contained within the entire continuous canopy reflectance spectra (400-900 nm) in order to investigate questions regarding the connection between measured hyperspectral reflectance and landscape-scale fluxes of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across multiple timescales, from instantaneous flux to monthly-integrated flux. With the PLSR models developed from this large dataset we achieved a high level of predictability for both NEE and GPP flux in these two ecosystems, where the R2 of prediction with an independent validation dataset ranged from 0.24 to 0.69. The PLSR models achieved the highest skill at predicting the integrated GPP flux for the week prior to the hyperspectral canopy reflectance collection, whereas the NEE flux often achieved the same high predictive power at the daily- through monthly-integrated flux timescales. The high level of predictability achieved by PLSR regression in this study demonstrated the potential for using repeated hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements to help partition NEE measurements into its component fluxes, GPP and ecosystem respiration, and for using continuous hyperspectral reflectance measurements to model regional carbon flux in future analyses.

  16. Predicting landscape-scale CO2 flux at a pasture and rice paddy with long-term hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthes, J. H.; Knox, S. H.; Sturtevant, C.; Sonnentag, O.; Verfaillie, J.; Baldocchi, D.

    2015-08-01

    Measurements of hyperspectral canopy reflectance provide a detailed snapshot of information regarding canopy biochemistry, structure and physiology. In this study, we collected 5 years of repeated canopy hyperspectral reflectance measurements for a total of over 100 site visits within the flux footprints of two eddy covariance towers at a pasture and rice paddy in northern California. The vegetation at both sites exhibited dynamic phenology, with significant interannual variability in the timing of seasonal patterns that propagated into interannual variability in measured hyperspectral reflectance. We used partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to leverage the information contained within the entire canopy reflectance spectra (400-900 nm) in order to investigate questions regarding the connection between measured hyperspectral reflectance and landscape-scale fluxes of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across multiple timescales, from instantaneous flux to monthly integrated flux. With the PLSR models developed from this large data set we achieved a high level of predictability for both NEE and GPP flux in these two ecosystems, where the R2 of prediction with an independent validation data set ranged from 0.24 to 0.69. The PLSR models achieved the highest skill at predicting the integrated GPP flux for the week prior to the hyperspectral canopy reflectance collection, whereas the NEE flux often achieved the same high predictive power at daily to monthly integrated flux timescales. The high level of predictability achieved by PLSR in this study demonstrated the potential for using repeated hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements to help partition NEE into its component fluxes, GPP and ecosystem respiration, and for using quasi-continuous hyperspectral reflectance measurements to model regional carbon flux in future analyses.

  17. Long-Term Stability of Residual Stress Improvement by Water Jet Peening Considering Working Processes.

    PubMed

    Hashimoto, Tadafumi; Osawa, Yusuke; Itoh, Shinsuke; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2013-06-01

    To prevent primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), water jet peening (WJP) has been used on the welds of Ni-based alloys in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Before WJP, the welds are machined and buffed in order to conduct a penetrant test (PT) to verify the weld qualities to access, and microstructure evolution takes place in the target area due to the severe plastic deformation. The compressive residual stresses induced by WJP might be unstable under elevated temperatures because of the high dislocation density in the compressive stress layer. Therefore, the stability of the compressive residual stresses caused by WJP was investigated during long-term operation by considering the microstructure evolution due to the working processes. The following conclusions were made: The compressive residual stresses were slightly relaxed in the surface layers of the thermally aged specimens. There were no differences in the magnitude of the relaxation based on temperature or time. The compressive residual stresses induced by WJP were confirmed to remain stable under elevated temperatures. The stress relaxation at the surface followed the Johnson-Mehl equation, which states that stress relaxation can occur due to the recovery of severe plastic strain, since the estimated activation energy agrees very well with the self-diffusion energy for Ni. By utilizing the additivity rule, it was indicated that stress relaxation due to recovery is completed during the startup process. It was proposed that the long-term stability of WJP under elevated temperatures must be assessed based on compressive stresses with respect to the yield stress. Thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis was performed to predict the effect of creep strain. After 100 yr of simulated continuous operation at 80% capacity, there was little change in the WJP compressive stresses under an actual operating temperature of 623 K. Therefore, the long-term stability of WJP during actual operation was

  18. Research Opportunities in Corrosion Science for Long-Term Prediction of Materials Performance: A Report of the DOE Workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”.

    SciTech Connect

    Payer, Joe H.; Scully, John R.

    2003-07-29

    The report summarizes the findings of a U.S. Department of Energy workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”. The workshop held on July 29-30, 2003 in Bethesda, MD and was co-sponsored by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences and Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The workshop focus was corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of materials performance in hostile environments and with special focus on relevance to the permanent disposal of nuclear waste at the Yucca Mountain Repository. The culmination of the workshop is this report that identifies both generic and Yucca-Mountain-Project specific research opportunities in basic and applied topic areas. The research opportunities would be realized well after the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s initial construction-authorization licensing process. At the workshop, twenty-three invited scientists deliberated on basic and applied science opportunities in corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of damage accumulation by corrosive processes that affect materials performance.

  19. fMRI Reactivity to High-Calorie Food Pictures Predicts Short- and Long-Term Outcome in a Weight-Loss Program

    PubMed Central

    Murdaugh, Donna L.; Cox, James E.; Cook, Edwin W.; Weller, Rosalyn E.

    2011-01-01

    Behavioral studies have suggested that food cues have stronger motivating effects in obese than in normal-weight individuals, which may be a risk factor underlying obesity. Previous cross-sectional neuroimaging studies have suggested that this difference is mediated by increased reactivity to food cues in parts of the reward system in obese individuals. To date, however, only a few prospective neuroimaging studies have been conducted to examine whether individual differences in brain activation elicited by food cues can predict differences in weight change. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate activation in reward-system as well as other brain regions in response to viewing high-calorie food vs. control pictures in 25 obese individuals before and after a 12-week psychosocial weight-loss treatment and at 9-mo follow-up. In those obese individuals who were least successful in losing weight during the treatment, we found greater pre-treatment activation to high-calorie food vs. control pictures in brain regions implicated in reward-system processes, such as the nucleus accumbens, anterior cingulate, and insula. We found similar correlations with weight loss in brain regions implicated by other studies in vision and attention, such as superior occipital cortex, inferior and superior parietal lobule, and prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, less successful weight maintenance at 9-mo follow-up was predicted by greater post-treatment activation in such brain regions as insula, ventral tegmental area, putamen, and fusiform gyrus. In summary, we found that greater activation in brain regions mediating motivational and attentional salience of food cues in obese individuals at the start of a weight-loss program was predictive of less success in the program and that such activation following the program predicted poorer weight control over a 9-mo follow-up period. PMID:22332246

  20. First principles model of carbonate compaction creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag Kristian; Jamtveit, Bjørn

    2016-05-01

    Rocks under compressional stress conditions are subject to long-term creep deformation. From first principles we develop a simple micromechanical model of creep in rocks under compressional stress that combines microscopic fracturing and pressure solution. This model was then upscaled by a statistical mechanical approach to predict strain rate at core and reservoir scale. The model uses no fitting parameter and has few input parameters: effective stress, temperature, water saturation porosity, and material parameters. Material parameters are porosity, pore size distribution, Young's modulus, interfacial energy of wet calcite, the dissolution, and precipitation rates of calcite, and the diffusion rate of calcium carbonate, all of which are independently measurable without performing any type of deformation or creep test. Existing long-term creep experiments were used to test the model which successfully predicts the magnitude of the resulting strain rate under very different effective stress, temperature, and water saturation conditions. The model was used to predict the observed compaction of a producing chalk reservoir.

  1. Short and long term predictive value of admission wall motion score in acute myocardial infarction. A cross sectional echocardiographic study of 345 patients.

    PubMed Central

    Kan, G; Visser, C A; Koolen, J J; Dunning, A J

    1986-01-01

    A score of left ventricular segmental wall motion was used as a convenient rapid way to assess overall left ventricular function in acute myocardial infarction. Its success in risk stratification at admission was assessed by a blind review of cross sectional echocardiographic tape recordings from multiple acoustic windows. Sixty nine (20%) of the 345 patients died during hospital stay or within a one year follow up. The mean (SD) wall motion score in those who died was significantly higher than in those who survived (16.2 (5.9) vs 5.7 (3.9)). There were no differences between the group that died in hospital within three months of discharge and the group that died between three months and one year after discharge. Among the 31 patients who died in hospital, however, wall motion score was highest in 15 patients dying of cardiogenic shock (19.2 (4.2)). In 16 patients with lethal ruptures it was 13.5 (6.1). The nine patients with free wall ruptures had higher wall motion scores than those with ventricular septal rupture or papillary muscle rupture (15.7 (6.9) vs 8.5 (5.3)). Eight (3.3%) of 245 patients with a score less than 10 died, compared with 61 (61%) of 100 scoring greater than or equal to 10. The sensitivity of a score of greater than or equal to 10 in predicting death within one year was 88%, the specificity was 86%, the positive predictive value was 61%, and the negative predictive value was 97%. PMID:3790378

  2. Validation of improved methods for predicting long-term elastomeric seal lifetimes from compression stress-relaxation and oxygen consumption techniques.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Bernstein, Robert; Celina, Mathias Christopher

    2003-03-01

    Conventional high-temperature compression stress-relaxation (CSR) experiments (e.g., using a Shawbury-Wallace relaxometer) measure the force periodically at room temperature. In this paper, we first describe modifications that allow the force measurements to be made isothermally and show that such measurements lead to more accurate estimates of sealing force decay. We then use conventional Arrhenius analysis and linear extrapolation of the high-temperature (80--110 C) CSR results for two commercial butyl o-ring materials (Butyl-A and Butyl-B) to show that Butyl-B is predicted to have approximately three times longer lifetime at room temperature (23 C). To test the linear extrapolation assumed by the Arrhenius approach, we conducted ultrasensitive oxygen consumption measurements from 110 C to room temperature for the two butyl materials. The results indicated that linear extrapolation of the high temperature CSR results for Butyl-A was reasonable whereas a significant curvature to a lower activation energy was observed for Butyl-B below 80 C. Using the oxygen consumption results to extrapolate the CSR results from 80 C to 23 C resulted in the conclusion that Butyl-B would actually degrade much faster than Butyl-A at 23 C, the opposite of the earlier conclusion based solely on extrapolation of the high-temperature CSR results. Since samples of both materials that had aged in the field for {approx}20 years at 23 C were available, it was possible to check the predictions using compression set measurements made on the field materials. The comparisons were in accord with the extrapolated predictions made using the ultrasensitive oxygen consumption measurements, underscoring the power of this extrapolation approach.

  3. Three year joint space narrowing predicts long term incidence of knee surgery in patients with osteoarthritis: an eight year prospective follow up study

    PubMed Central

    Bruyere, O; Richy, F; Reginster, J

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To assess the clinical relevance of mean and minimum femorotibial joint space narrowing (JSN) for predicting future osteoarthritis related surgery in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Methods: 126 subjects with primary knee osteoarthritis were followed prospectively for a mean eight years. Minimum and mean joint space width (JSW) were assessed from standard x rays at baseline and after a follow up of three years. The rate of knee osteoarthritis related surgery was recorded for the following five years. Results: After a mean follow up of eight years, 16 patients (12.7%) had received osteoarthritis related joint surgery. The areas under the curves (AUC) resulting from the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses for predicting osteoarthritis surgery were 0.73 (p = 0.006) for minimum JSN and 0.55 (p = 0.54) for mean JSN. The cut off for minimum JSN maximising sensitivity and specificity for predicting future surgery was a change of 0.7 mm or more in minimum joint space width over a period of three years. However, no meaningful differences were observed for cut off values between 0.5 and 0.8 mm The relative risk (adjusted for age, body mass index, baseline symptoms, and baseline JSW) of experiencing osteoarthritis related surgery during the eight year of follow up was 5.15 (95% confidence interval, 1.70 to 15.60) (p = 0.004) in patients with a minimum joint space narrowing of 0.7 mm or more during the first three years of the study. Conclusions: A cut off of 0.5 to 0.8 mm in minimum JSN, measured on standard x rays, reflects a clinically relevant progression in patients with knee osteoarthritis. PMID:15843444

  4. NASALife-Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program and Illustrative Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.

    2005-01-01

    NASALife is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although, the primary focus was for CMC components the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading (Miner s rule) and creep are combined to determine the total damage per mission and the number of missions the component can survive before failure are calculated. Illustration of code usage is provided through example problem of a CMC turbine stator vane made of melt-infiltrated, silicon carbide fiber-reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (MI SiC/SiC)

  5. Low testosterone and sexual symptoms in men with acute coronary syndrome can be used to predict major adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Chmiel, A; Mizia-Stec, K; Wierzbicka-Chmiel, J; Rychlik, S; Muras, A; Mizia, M; Bienkowski, J

    2015-11-01

    Low total testosterone (TT) and sexual symptoms are common among men with coronary artery disease, however its impact on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is still debatable. We investigated whether low TT and coexisting sexual symptoms in men with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) can be used to predict the incidence of MACE. In the prospective study 120 consecutive men (mean age 58 ± 9 years; diabetes 27%; current smokers 58%; left ventricular ejection fraction 50 ± 10%) with ACS were included. The group of men with the presence of three sexual symptoms (decreased frequency of morning erections, a lack of sexual thoughts and erectile dysfunction) and with TT serum concentration <3.2 ng/mL was distinguished. All of the patients had their prognosis assessed according to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE Score 2.0). Primary composite endpoint - MACE (recurrent ischaemia, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke and death) and secondary endpoint - in stent restenosis (ISR) were registered during the 18.3 month follow-up period. The mean TT level in the entire group was 3.7 ± 0.5 ng/mL. Low TT was diagnosed in 63 (52.5%) men. Both low TT and sexual symptoms were diagnosed in 57 (47%) participants. During the follow-up, 29 (24.2%) participants experienced MACE, 20 (16.6%) men ISR. In the Cox proportional hazards regression, high risk of death on the GRACE score (HR 3.16; 95% CI: 1.5-6.6; p = 0.002), the presence of low TT and sexual symptoms (HR 2.75; 95% CI: 1.26-6.04; p = 0.02) independently predicted an incidence of a MACE (p = 0.006). For the secondary endpoint only low TT and sexual symptoms (HR 2.68; 95% CI: 1.03-6.94; p = 0.034) were independent covariates which predicted IRS. Low TT which coexists with sexual symptoms in males with ACS can be used to predict MACE, especially IRS independently of classic cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:26460501

  6. The predictive validity of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) in a long-term follow-up of violent offenders.

    PubMed

    Churcher, Frances P; Mills, Jeremy F; Forth, Adelle E

    2016-08-01

    Over the past few decades many structured risk appraisal measures have been created to respond to this need. The Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) is a measure designed to integrate both an actuarial estimate of violence risk with critical risk management indicators. The current study examined interrater reliability and the predictive validity of the TTV in a sample of violent offenders (n = 120) over an average follow-up period of 17.75 years. The TTV was retrospectively scored and compared with the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Statistical Information of Recidivism Scale-Revised (SIR-R1), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Approximately 53% of the sample reoffended violently, with an overall recidivism rate of 74%. Although the VRAG was the strongest predictor of violent recidivism in the sample, the Actuarial Risk Estimates (ARE) scale of the TTV produced a small, significant effect. The Risk Management Indicators (RMI) produced nonsignificant area under the curve (AUC) values for all recidivism outcomes. Comparisons between measures using AUC values and Cox regression showed that there were no statistical differences in predictive validity. The results of this research will be used to inform the validation and reliability literature on the TTV, and will contribute to the overall risk assessment literature. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27504643

  7. Evaluation of Four Risk-Scoring Methods to Predict Long-Term Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Aorto-Bifemoral Bypass for Aorto-Iliac Occlusive Disease

    PubMed Central

    García, Francisca; Marchena, Joaquín; Cabrera, Vicente; Hermida, María; Sotgiu, Enrico

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to determine the usefulness of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, the comorbidity Charlson index unadjusted (CCIu),the comorbidity Charlson index adjusted by age (CCIa), and the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) for postoperative morbimortality and survival in patients treated with aorto-bifemoral bypass (AFB) for aorto-iliac occlusive disease (AIOD). A series of 278 patients who underwent AFB were restrospectively studied. For the CCIu, CCIa, ASA, and GAS, receiver operating characteristics curve analysis for prediction of morbidity showed area under the curves of 0.61 (p = 0.004), 0.59 (p = 0.026), 0.569 (p = 0.087), and 0.63 (p = 0.001), respectively. Additionally, univariate analysis showed that CCIa (p = 0.016) and GAS (p = 0.006) were associated significantly with an increased risk of developing complications. Furthermore, CCIa (p < 0.001) and GAS (p = 0.001) showed a significant association with survival. Finally, the variable age was related to morbidity (p = 0.004), mortality (p = 0.038), and survival (p < 0.001). The comorbididity and the age should be taken in account in clinical treatment decisions for patients with AIOD. The CCIa and GAS may play a role as predictive factors for postoperative morbidity and survival after AFB. PMID:23450270

  8. Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.

    2008-11-20

    Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gas increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.

  9. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Schoendorf, J. F.

    1992-01-01

    A series of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests have been completed to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed mean stresses. The baseline alloy used in these tests was cast B1900+Hf (with and without coatings); a small number of tests of wrought INCO 718 are also included. A strong path dependence was demonstrated during the thermomechanical fatigue testing, using in-phase, out-phase, and non-proportional (elliptical and 'dogleg') strain-temperature cycles. The multiaxial tests also demonstrated cycle path to be a significant variable, using both proportional and non-proportional tension-torsion loading. Environmental screening tests were conducted in moderate pressure oxygen and purified argon; the oxygen reduced the specimen lives by two, while the argon testing produced ambiguous data. Both NiCoCrAlY overlay and diffusion aluminide coatings were evaluated under isothermal and TMF conditions; in general, the lives of the coated specimens were higher that those of uncoated specimens. Controlled mean stress TMF tests showed that small mean stress changes could change initiation lives by orders of magnitude; these results are not conservatively predicted using traditional linear damage summation rules. Microstructures were evaluated using optical, SEM and TEM methods.

  10. Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

    2015-12-01

    Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent

  11. A long-term three dimensional liver co-culture system for improved prediction of clinically relevant drug-induced hepatotoxicity

    SciTech Connect

    Kostadinova, Radina; Boess, Franziska; Suter, Laura; Weiser, Thomas; Singer, Thomas; Roth, Adrian

    2013-04-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is the major cause for liver failure and post-marketing drug withdrawals. Due to species-specific differences in hepatocellular function, animal experiments to assess potential liabilities of drug candidates can predict hepatotoxicity in humans only to a certain extent. In addition to animal experimentation, primary hepatocytes from rat or human are widely used for pre-clinical safety assessment. However, as many toxic responses in vivo are mediated by a complex interplay among different cell types and often require chronic drug exposures, the predictive performance of hepatocytes is very limited. Here, we established and characterized human and rat in vitro three-dimensional (3D) liver co-culture systems containing primary parenchymal and non-parenchymal hepatic cells. Our data demonstrate that cells cultured on a 3D scaffold have a preserved composition of hepatocytes, stellate, Kupffer and endothelial cells and maintain liver function for up to 3 months, as measured by the production of albumin, fibrinogen, transferrin and urea. Additionally, 3D liver co-cultures maintain cytochrome P450 inducibility, form bile canaliculi-like structures and respond to inflammatory stimuli. Upon incubation with selected hepatotoxicants including drugs which have been shown to induce idiosyncratic toxicity, we demonstrated that this model better detected in vivo drug-induced toxicity, including species-specific drug effects, when compared to monolayer hepatocyte cultures. In conclusion, our results underline the importance of more complex and long lasting in vitro cell culture models that contain all liver cell types and allow repeated drug-treatments for detection of in vivo-relevant adverse drug effects. - Highlights: ► 3D liver co-cultures maintain liver specific functions for up to three months. ► Activities of Cytochrome P450s remain drug- inducible accross three months. ► 3D liver co-cultures recapitulate drug-induced liver toxicity

  12. Prediction and verification of creep behavior in metallic materials and components, for the space shuttle thermal protection system. Volume 1, phase 1: Cyclic materials creep predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, J. W.; Cramer, B. A.

    1974-01-01

    Cyclic creep response was investigated and design methods applicable to thermal protection system structures were developed. The steady-state (constant temperature and load) and cyclic creep response characteristics of four alloys were studied. Steady-state creep data were gathered through a literature survey to establish reference data bases. These data bases were used to develop empirical equations describing creep as a function of time, temperature, and stress and as a basis of comparison for test data. Steady-state creep tests and tensile cyclic tests were conducted. The following factors were investigated: material thickness and rolling direction; material cyclic creep response under varying loads and temperatures; constant stress and temperature cycles representing flight conditions; changing stresses present in a creeping beam as a result of stress redistribution; and complex stress and temperature profiles representative of space shuttle orbiter trajectories. A computer program was written, applying creep hardening theories and empirical equations for creep, to aid in analysis of test data. Results are considered applicable to a variety of structures which are cyclicly exposed to creep producing thermal environments.

  13. Model-based prediction of long-term leaching of contaminants from secondary materials in road constructions and noise protection dams.

    PubMed

    Beyer, Christof; Konrad, Wilfried; Rügner, Hermann; Bauer, Sebastian; Liedl, Rudolf; Grathwohl, Peter

    2009-02-01

    In this study, contaminant leaching from three different secondary materials (demolition waste, municipal solid waste incineration ash, and blast furnace slag) to groundwater is assessed by numerical modeling. Reactive transport simulations for a noise protection dam and a road dam (a typical German autobahn), in which secondary materials are reused as base layers, were performed to predict the breakthrough of a conservative tracer (i.e., a salt) and sorbing contaminants (e.g., PAHs like naphthalene and phenanthrene or heavy metals) at the groundwater table. The dam constructions have a composite architecture with soil covers in inclined layers and distinct contrasts in the unsaturated hydraulic properties of the used materials. Capillary barrier effects result in strong spatial variabilities of flow and transport velocities. Contaminant breakthrough curves at the groundwater table show significant tailing due to slow sorption kinetics and a wide distribution of travel times. While conservative tracer breakthrough depends primarily on subsoil hydraulic properties, equilibrium distribution coefficients and sorption kinetics represent additional controlling factors for contaminant spreading. Hence, the three secondary materials show pronounced differences in the temporal development of leached contaminant concentrations with consequences for breakthrough times and peak concentrations at the groundwater table. Significant concentration reductions due to dispersion occur only if the source concentrations decrease significantly prior to the arrival of the contaminant at the groundwater table. Biodegradation causes significant reduction of breakthrough concentrations only if flow velocities are low. PMID:18707860

  14. A New Bayesian Network-Based Risk Stratification Model for Prediction of Short-term and Long-term LVAD Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A.; Kanwar, Manreet K.; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Benza, Raymond L.; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F.

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score (DTRS) and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive INTERMACS dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow (CF) LVAD patients and 226 pre-implant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time endpoints post-implant (30 day, 90 day, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 year), achieving accuracies of 95, 90, 90, 83, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the ROC of 91, 82, 82, 80 and 81% respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57 and 60% at 90-days and 1-year, respectively. Pre-implant interventions such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relationships of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation. PMID:25710772

  15. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  16. The ups and downs of repetition: Modulation of the perirhinal cortex by conceptual repetition predicts priming and long-term memory

    PubMed Central

    Heusser, Andrew C.; Awipi, Tarimotimi; Davachi, Lila

    2013-01-01

    In order to better understand how concepts might be represented in the brain, we used a cross-modal conceptual priming paradigm to examine how repetition-related activity changes in the brain are related to conceptual priming. During scanning, subjects made natural/manmade judgments on a continuous stream of spoken nouns, written nouns and pictures of objects. Each stimulus either repeated in the same or a different modality with 1-4 intervening trials between repetitions. Behaviorally, participants showed significant perceptual and conceptual priming effects. The fMRI data showed that the conditions associated with the greatest behavioral priming exhibited the largest decreases in BOLD activity in left perirhinal cortex (PRc), as well as a few other regions. Furthermore, the PRc was the only region to show this relationship for the cross-modal conditions alone, where the concept but not the percept repeated. Conversely, repetition-related increases in PRc activity predicted better subsequent memory as assessed by a post-scan recognition test. These results suggest that repetition-related activity changes in the PRc are related both to the speed of access to a repeated concept and to that concept’s later memorability. PMID:23651708

  17. Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akins, F. R.

    1979-01-01

    Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

  18. Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strahan, Susan; Stolarski, Richard; Douglass, Anne; Steenrod, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

  19. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, M.; Kempka, T.; Kühn, M.

    2015-02-01

    Fully coupled, multi-phase reactive transport simulations of CO2 storage systems can be approximated by a simplified one-way coupling of hydrodynamics and reactive chemistry. The main characteristics of such systems, and hypotheses underlying the proposed alternative coupling, are (i) that the presence of CO2 is the only driving force for chemical reactions and (ii) that its migration in the reservoir is only marginally affected by immobilisation due to chemical reactions. In the simplified coupling, the exposure time to CO2 of each element of the hydrodynamic grid is estimated by non-reactive simulations and the reaction path of one single batch geochemical model is applied to each grid element during its exposure time. In heterogeneous settings, analytical scaling relationships provide the dependency of velocity and amount of reactions to porosity and gas saturation. The analysis of TOUGHREACT fully coupled reactive transport simulations of CO2 injection in saline aquifer, inspired to the Ketzin pilot site (Germany), both in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, confirms that the reaction paths predicted by fully coupled simulations in every element of the grid show a high degree of self-similarity. A threshold value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 considered chemically active is shown to mitigate the effects of the discrepancy between dissolved CO2 migration in non-reactive and fully coupled simulations. In real life, the optimal threshold value is unknown and has to be estimated, e.g. by means of 1-D or 2-D simulations, resulting in an uncertainty ultimately due to the process de-coupling. However, such uncertainty is more than acceptable given that the alternative coupling enables using grids of the order of millions of elements, profiting from much better description of heterogeneous reservoirs at a fraction of the calculation time of fully coupled models.

  20. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, M.; Kempka, T.; Kühn, M.

    2014-09-01

    Fully-coupled, multi-phase reactive transport simulations of CO2 storage systems can be approximated by a simplified one-way coupling of hydrodynamics and reactive chemistry. The main characteristics of such systems, and hypotheses underlying the proposed alternative coupling, are (i) that the presence of CO2 is the only driving force for chemical reactions and (ii) that its migration in the reservoir is only marginally affected by immobilization due to chemical reactions. In the simplified coupling, the exposure time to CO2 of each element of the hydrodynamic grid is estimated by non-reactive simulations and the reaction path of one single batch geochemical model is applied to each grid element during its exposure time. In heterogeneous settings, analytical scaling relationships provide the dependency of velocity and amount of reactions to porosity and gas saturation. The analysis of TOUGHREACT fully coupled reactive transport simulations of CO2 injection in saline aquifer, inspired to the Ketzin pilot site (Germany), both in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, confirms that the reaction paths predicted by fully coupled simulations in every element of the grid show a high degree of self-similarity. A threshold value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 considered chemically active is showed to mitigate the effects of the discrepancy between dissolved CO2 migration in non-reactive and fully coupled simulations. In real life, the optimal threshold value is unknown and has to be estimated, e.g., by means of 1-D or 2-D simulations, resulting in an uncertainty ultimately due to the process de-coupling. However, such uncertainty is more than acceptable given that the alternative coupling enables using grids in the order of million elements, profiting from much better description of heterogeneous reservoirs at a fraction of the calculation time of fully coupled models.

  1. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  2. Data-driven modeling of radionuclide inventory at the Savannah River Site F-area seepage basins and implications for long-term behavior predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiedmer, A.; Hunt, J. R.; Agarwal, D.; Faybishenko, B.

    2012-12-01

    The availability of data is a major constraint in the development of a conceptual model and predictions of physical and chemical processes impacting contaminant behavior in the subsurface. For example, a wealth of data has been collected over the past 60 years from a network of several hundred groundwater wells and surface water monitoring stations at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). The data were collected during and following the release of low-level liquid waste into seepage basins, as well as during the application of various groundwater remediation techniques. The result is a dataset of over 350,000 measurements. To analyze these data, we used a new data management system being developed as part of the DOE initiative on Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). This system was developed for easier access, management, visualization, and exploration of large amounts of heterogeneous data. Using this system, we developed a data-driven model for the evaluation of a mass balance and the inventory of the F-Area seepage basins and the groundwater plume. Process operations at the F-area led to the discharge of more than 4×109 L of low-level liquid radioactive waste containing tritium, uranium and fission products into the seepage basins. Between 1953 and 1989, 8.6×104 Ci (corrected for evaporation and decay to 1989) of tritium was released into the basins according to operational data. Starting in the 1960s, SRS monitored radioactivity in the Fourmile Branch (FMB) located downgradient of the basins. Through 1989 around 43% of the total release was detected in FMB, leaving an estimated inventory of 57% in the subsurface as of 1989. This model was used to assess t he sources of uncertainty in the mass balance calculations. The results of calculations of the tritium inventory in groundwater were compared with those from monitoring data prior to remediation, as well as were used to estimate the time needed to achieve

  3. Endochronic theory of transient creep and creep recovery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, H. C.; Chen, L.

    1979-01-01

    Short time creep and creep recovery were investigated by means of the endochronic theory of viscoplasticity. It is shown that the constitutive equations for constant-strain-rate stress-strain behavior, creep, creep recovery, and stress relaxation can all ber derived from the general constitutive equation by imposing appropriate constraints. In this unified approach, the effect of strain-hardening is naturally accounted for when describing creep and creep recovery. The theory predicts with reasonable accuracy the creep and creep recovery behaviors for Aluminum 1100-0 at 150 C. It was found that the strain-rate history at prestraining stage affects the subsequent creep. A critical stress was also established for creep recovery. The theory predicts a forward creep for creep recovery stress greater than the critical stress. For creep recovery stress less than the critical stress, the theory then predicts a normal strain recovery.

  4. Health policy model: long-term predictive results associated with the management of hepatitis C virus-induced diseases in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Mennini, Francesco Saverio; Marcellusi, Andrea; Andreoni, Massimo; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Salomone, Salvatore; Craxì, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    ,800 subjects were actually being treated with anti-HCV drugs. A reduction of health care costs is associated with a prevalence decrease. Indeed, once the spending peak is reached during this decade (about €527 million), the model predicts a cost reduction in the following 18 years. In 2030, based on the more effective treatments currently available, the direct health care cost associated with the management of HCV patients may reach €346 million (−34.3% compared to 2012). The first scenario (new treatment in 2015 with SVR =90% and same number of treated patients) was associated with a significant reduction in HCV-induced clinical consequences (prevalence =−3%) and a decrease in direct health care expenses, corresponding to €11.1 million. The second scenario (increase in treated patients to 12,790) produced an incremental cost reduction of €7.3 million, reaching a net decrease equal to €18.4 million. In the third scenario (treated patients =16,770), a higher net direct health care cost decrease versus the base-case (€44.0 million) was estimated. Conclusion Our model showed that the introduction of new treatments that are more effective could result in a quasi-eradication of HCV, with a very strong reduction in prevalence. PMID:24971024

  5. Steady-State Creep of Rock Salt: Improved Approaches for Lab Determination and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günther, R.-M.; Salzer, K.; Popp, T.; Lüdeling, C.

    2015-11-01

    Actual problems in geotechnical design, e.g., of underground openings for radioactive waste repositories or high-pressure gas storages, require sophisticated constitutive models and consistent parameters for rock salt that facilitate reliable prognosis of stress-dependent deformation and associated damage. Predictions have to comprise the active mining phase with open excavations as well as the long-term development of the backfilled mine or repository. While convergence-induced damage occurs mostly in the vicinity of openings, the long-term behaviour of the backfilled system is dominated by the damage-free steady-state creep. However, because in experiments the time necessary to reach truly stationary creep rates can range from few days to years, depending mainly on temperature and stress, an innovative but simple creep testing approach is suggested to obtain more reliable results: A series of multi-step tests with loading and unloading cycles allows a more reliable estimate of stationary creep rate in a reasonable time. For modelling, we use the advanced strain-hardening approach of Günther-Salzer, which comprehensively describes all relevant deformation properties of rock salt such as creep and damage-induced rock failure within the scope of an unified creep ansatz. The capability of the combination of improved creep testing procedures and accompanied modelling is demonstrated by recalculating multi-step creep tests at different loading and temperature conditions. Thus reliable extrapolations relevant to in-situ creep rates (10^{-9} to 10^{-13} s^{-1}) become possible.

  6. CYP2B6*6 and CYP2B6*18 Predict Long-Term Efavirenz Exposure Measured in Hair Samples in HIV-Positive South African Women.

    PubMed

    Röhrich, Carola R; Drögemöller, Britt I; Ikediobi, Ogechi; van der Merwe, Lize; Grobbelaar, Nelis; Wright, Galen E B; McGregor, Nathaniel; Warnich, Louise

    2016-06-01

    Long-term exposure to efavirenz (EFV) measured in hair samples may predict response to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Polymorphisms in CYP2B6 are known to alter EFV levels. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CYP2B6 genotype, EFV levels measured in hair, and virological outcomes on ART in a real-world setting. We measured EFV levels in hair from HIV-positive South African females who had been receiving EFV-based treatment for at least 3 months from the South African Black (SAB) (n = 81) and Cape Mixed Ancestry (CMA) (n = 53) populations. Common genetic variation in CYP2B6 was determined in 15 individuals from each population using bidirectional Sanger sequencing. Prioritized variants (n = 16) were subsequently genotyped in the entire patient cohort (n = 134). The predictive value of EFV levels in hair and selected variants in CYP2B6 on virological treatment outcomes was assessed. Previously described alleles (CYP2B6*2, CYP2B6*5, CYP2B6*6, CYP2B6*17, and CYP2B6*18), as well as two novel alleles (CYP2B6*31 and CYP2B6*32), were detected in this study. Compared to noncarriers, individuals homozygous for CYP2B6*6 had ∼109% increased EFV levels in hair (p = .016) and CYP2B6*18 heterozygotes demonstrated 82% higher EFV hair levels (p = .0006). This study confirmed that alleles affecting CYP2B6 metabolism and subsequent EFV exposure are present at significant frequencies in both the SAB and CMA populations. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that the use of hair samples for testing EFV concentrations may be a useful tool in determining long-term drug exposure in resource-limited countries. PMID:26655325

  7. Application of the cracked pipe element to creep crack growth prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Brochard, J.; Charras, T.

    1997-04-01

    Modifications to a computer code for ductile fracture assessment of piping systems with postulated circumferential through-wall cracks under static or dynamic loading are very briefly described. The modifications extend the capabilities of the CASTEM2000 code to the determination of fracture parameters under creep conditions. The main advantage of the approach is that thermal loads can be evaluated as secondary stresses. The code is applicable to piping systems for which crack propagation predictions differ significantly depending on whether thermal stresses are considered as primary or secondary stresses.

  8. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Fourth year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

    1986-01-01

    As gas turbine technology continues to advance, the need for advanced life prediction methods for hot section components is becoming more and more evident. The complex local strain and temperature histories at critical locations must be accurately interpreted to account for the effects of various damage mechanisms (such as fatigue, creep, and oxidation) and their possible interactions. As part of the overall NASA HOST effort, this program is designed to investigate these fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines.

  9. Orbits, Long-Term Predictions, Impact Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S. R.; Milani, A.; Gronchi, G. F.; Chodas, P. W.

    Methods to constrain the surface mineralogy of asteroids have seen considerable development during the last decade, with advancement in laboratory spectral calibrations and validation of interpretive methodologies by spacecraft rendezvous missions. This has enabled the accurate identification of several meteorite parent bodies in the main asteroid belt and helped constrain the mineral chemistries and abundances in ordinary chondrites and basaltic achondrites. With better quantification of spectral effects due to temperature, phase angle, and grain size, systematic discrepancies due to noncompositional factors can now be virtually eliminated for mafic silicate-bearing asteroids. Interpretation of spectrally featureless asteroids remains a challenge. This chapter presents a review of all mineralogical interpretive tools currently in use and outlines procedures for their application.

  10. Application of strainrange partitioning to the prediction of MPC creep-fatigue data for 2 1/4 Cr-1Mo steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    Strainrange partitioning is used to predict the long time cyclic lives of the metal properties council (MPC) creep-fatigue interspersion and cyclic creep-rupture tests conducted with annealed 2 1/4 Cr-1Mo steel. Observed lives agree with predicted lives within factors of two. The strainrange partitioning life relations used for the long time predictions were established from short time creep-fatigue data generated at NASA-Lewis on the same heat of material.

  11. Stapedectomy - long-term report.

    PubMed

    Shea, J J

    1982-01-01

    The long-term results with large fenestra stapedectomy with vein graft and Teflon piston are compared with results with the small fenestra stapedectomy with teflon piston directly into the vestibule. There were 1,943 operations in the former group and 2,155 in the latter when compared in 1970. One hundred consecutive patients from the beginning of each group with follow-up to present were compared. Results were generally the same with no great change in 15 and 20 years as compared to those at 5 years. The complication of perilymph fistula was caused by creating an opening in the footplate much larger than the prosthesis and was eliminated by interposing a living oval window seal if the opening was much larger than the prosthesis and a flap of lining membrane from the promontory when it was not. Other factors that influence a good result are discussed, including the type and the diameter of the piston used, the type of living oval window seal and the method of attachment to the incus. The small fenestra operation was found to be superior to the large, not only for the hearing gain achieved, but the case of performance and the freedom from complications due to migration of the prosthesis and/or the oval window seal. At present we have done about all that can be done for the conductive components. What remains is the sensorineural component which our studies indicate may be due to an autoimmune response. PMID:6897157

  12. Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Raymond W.; Brown, Neil L.

    2005-01-01

    Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

  13. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  14. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

    PubMed

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-10-22

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition. PMID:23986109

  15. Creep-rupture reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

  16. Creep-rupture reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

  17. A model for creep life prediction of thin tube using strain energy density as a function of stress triaxiality under quasistatic loading employing elastic-creep & elastic-plastic-creep deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, Tahir; Kanapathipillai, Sangarapillai; Chowdhury, Mahiuddin

    2013-06-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of a new multiaxial creep damage model developed by authors using stress traixiality to predict the failure time of a component made of 0.5%Cr-0.5%Mo-0.25%V low alloy steel. The model employs strain energy density and assumes that the uniaxial strain energy density of a component can be easily calculated and can be converted to multi-axial strain energy density by multiplying it to a function of stress trixiality which is a ratio of mean stress to equivalent stress. For comparison, an elastic-creep and elastic-plastic-creep finite element analysis (FEA) is performed to get multi-axial strain energy density of the component which is compared with the calculated strain energy density for both cases. The verification and application of the model are demonstrated by applying it to thin tube for which the experimental data are available. The predicted failure times by the model are compared with the experimental results. The results show that the proposed model is capable of predicting failure times of the component made of the above-mentioned material with an accuracy of 4.0%.

  18. A practical method based on stress evaluation ({sigma}{sub d} criterion) to predict initiation of crack under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Moulin, D.; Drubay, B.; Acker, D.; Laiarinandrasana, L.

    1995-11-01

    In some parts of primary circuit of fast breeder reactor, where the temperature is higher than 427 C, preservice inspection has revealed indications that were conservatively assumed to be sharp cracks. These pipes are made of 316 SPH material, an austenitic material close to 316L. This material is subjected to creep behavior at this temperature. Here, the behavior of defects like cracks in nuclear components operating at high temperature, where creep is significant, must be under control. There exists the need to have a practical method of analysis, which can be used by engineers, to calculate the time of initiation for defects existing at the start of life of nuclear components. This study presents the background, the development, the application, and results concerning validation work made for a simplified method named {sigma}{sub d} of prediction of initiation for nuclear structures made of 316L austenitic steel and operating at temperature where creep is significant. This method relies on the evaluation of real stress-strain history on a small distance d (d = 0.05 mm) close to the crack front and material characteristics (limiting stresses) that are available in nuclear codes like ASME Code cases or RCC-MR.

  19. Managing soils for long-term productivity

    PubMed Central

    Syers, J. K.

    1997-01-01

    Meeting the goal of long-term agricultural productivity requires that soil degradation be halted and reversed. Soil fertility decline is a key factor in soil degradation and is probably the major cause of declining crop yields. There is evidence that the contribution of declining soil fertility to soil degradation has been underestimated.
    Sensitivity to soil degradation is implicit in the assessment of the sustainability of land management practices, with wide recognition of the fact that soils vary in their ability to resist change and recover subsequent to stress. The concept of resilience in relation to sustainability requires further elaboration and evaluation.
    In the context of soil degradation, a decline in soil fertility is primarily interpreted as the depletion of organic matter and plant nutrients. Despite a higher turnover rate of organic matter in the tropics there is no intrinsic difference between the organic matter content of soils from tropical and temperate regions. The level of organic matter in a soil is closely related to the above and below ground inputs. In the absence of adequate organic material inputs and where cultivation is continuous, soil organic matter declines progressively. Maintaining the quantity and quality of soil organic matter should be a guiding principle in developing management practices.
    Soil microbial biomass serves as an important reservoir of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), and regulates the cycling of organic matter and nutrients. Because of its high turnover rate, microbial biomass reacts quickly to changes in management and is a sensitive indicator for monitoring and predicting changes in soil organic matter. Modelling techniques have been reasonably successful in predicting changes in soil organic matter with different organic material inputs, but there is little information from the tropics.
    Nutrient depletion through harvested crop components and residue removal, and by leaching and soil

  20. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  1. Modeling Maintenance of Long-Term Potentiation in Clustered Synapses: Long-Term Memory without Bistability

    PubMed Central

    Smolen, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Memories are stored, at least partly, as patterns of strong synapses. Given molecular turnover, how can synapses maintain strong for the years that memories can persist? Some models postulate that biochemical bistability maintains strong synapses. However, bistability should give a bimodal distribution of synaptic strength or weight, whereas current data show unimodal distributions for weights and for a correlated variable, dendritic spine volume. Thus it is important for models to simulate both unimodal distributions and long-term memory persistence. Here a model is developed that connects ongoing, competing processes of synaptic growth and weakening to stochastic processes of receptor insertion and removal in dendritic spines. The model simulates long-term (>1 yr) persistence of groups of strong synapses. A unimodal weight distribution results. For stability of this distribution it proved essential to incorporate resource competition between synapses organized into small clusters. With competition, these clusters are stable for years. These simulations concur with recent data to support the “clustered plasticity hypothesis” which suggests clusters, rather than single synaptic contacts, may be a fundamental unit for storage of long-term memory. The model makes empirical predictions and may provide a framework to investigate mechanisms maintaining the balance between synaptic plasticity and stability of memory. PMID:25945261

  2. Natural History of Cardiac and Respiratory Involvement, Prognosis and Predictive Factors for Long-Term Survival in Adult Patients with Limb Girdle Muscular Dystrophies Type 2C and 2D

    PubMed Central

    Fayssoil, Abdallah; Ogna, Adam; Chaffaut, Cendrine; Chevret, Sylvie; Guimarães-Costa, Raquel; Leturcq, France; Wahbi, Karim; Prigent, Helene; Lofaso, Frederic; Nardi, Olivier; Clair, Bernard; Behin, Anthony; Stojkovic, Tanya; Laforet, Pascal; Orlikowski, David; Annane, Djillali

    2016-01-01

    Background Type 2C and 2D limb girdle muscular dystrophies (LGMD) are a group of autosomal recessive limb girdle muscular dystrophies manifested by proximal myopathy, impaired respiratory muscle function and cardiomyopathy. The correlation and the prognostic impact of respiratory and heart impairment are poorly described. We aimed to describe the long-term cardiac and respiratory follow-up of these patients and to determine predictive factors of cardio-respiratory events and mortality in LGMD 2C and 2D. Methods We reviewed the charts of 34 LGMD patients, followed from 2005 to 2015, to obtain echocardiographic, respiratory function and sleep recording data. We considered respiratory events (acute respiratory failure, pulmonary sepsis, atelectasis or pneumothorax), cardiac events (acute heart failure, significant cardiac arrhythmia or conduction block, ischemic stroke) and mortality as outcomes of interest for the present analysis. Results A total of 21 patients had type 2C LGMD and 13 patients had type 2D. Median age was 30 years [IQR 24–38]. At baseline, median pulmonary vital capacity (VC) was 31% of predicted value [20–40]. Median maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) was 31 cmH2O [IQR 20.25–39.75]. Median maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was 30 cm H2O [20–36]. Median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 55% [45–64] with 38% of patients with LVEF <50%. Over a median follow-up of 6 years, we observed 38% respiratory events, 14% cardiac events and 20% mortality. Among baseline characteristics, LVEF and left ventricular end diastolic diameter (LVEDD) were associated with mortality, whilst respiratory parameters (VC, MIP, MEP) and the need for home mechanical ventilation (HMV) were associated with respiratory events. Conclusion In our cohort of severely respiratory impaired type 2C and 2D LGMD, respiratory morbidity was high. Cardiac dysfunction was frequent in particular in LGMD 2C and had an impact on long-term mortality. Trial Registration

  3. Long-term solar-terrestrial observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The results of an 18-month study of the requirements for long-term monitoring and archiving of solar-terrestrial data is presented. The value of long-term solar-terrestrial observations is discussed together with parameters, associated measurements, and observational problem areas in each of the solar-terrestrial links (the sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere). Some recommendations are offered for coordinated planning for long-term solar-terrestrial observations.

  4. Mechanistic Prediction of the Effect of Microstructural Coarsening on Creep Response of SnAgCu Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, S.; Chauhan, P.; Osterman, M.; Dasgupta, A.; Pecht, M.

    2016-04-01

    Mechanistic microstructural models have been developed to capture the effect of isothermal aging on time dependent viscoplastic response of Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu (SAC305) solders. SnAgCu (SAC) solders undergo continuous microstructural coarsening during both storage and service because of their high homologous temperature. The microstructures of these low melting point alloys continuously evolve during service. This results in evolution of creep properties of the joint over time, thereby influencing the long term reliability of microelectronic packages. It is well documented that isothermal aging degrades the creep resistance of SAC solder. SAC305 alloy is aged for (24-1000) h at (25-100)°C (~0.6-0.8 × T melt). Cross-sectioning and image processing techniques were used to periodically quantify the effect of isothermal aging on phase coarsening and evolution. The parameters monitored during isothermal aging include size, area fraction, and inter-particle spacing of nanoscale Ag3Sn intermetallic compounds (IMCs) and the volume fraction of micronscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs, as well as the area fraction of pure tin dendrites. Effects of microstructural evolution on secondary creep constitutive response of SAC305 solder joints were then modeled using a mechanistic multiscale creep model. The mechanistic phenomena modeled include: (1) dispersion strengthening by coarsened nanoscale Ag3Sn IMCs in the eutectic phase; and (2) load sharing between pro-eutectic Sn dendrites and the surrounding coarsened eutectic Sn-Ag phase and microscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs. The coarse-grained polycrystalline Sn microstructure in SAC305 solder was not captured in the above model because isothermal aging does not cause any significant change in the initial grain size and orientation of SAC305 solder joints. The above mechanistic model can successfully capture the drop in creep resistance due to the influence of isothermal aging on SAC305 single crystals. Contribution of grain boundary sliding to the creep strain of

  5. Mechanistic Prediction of the Effect of Microstructural Coarsening on Creep Response of SnAgCu Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, S.; Chauhan, P.; Osterman, M.; Dasgupta, A.; Pecht, M.

    2016-07-01

    Mechanistic microstructural models have been developed to capture the effect of isothermal aging on time dependent viscoplastic response of Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu (SAC305) solders. SnAgCu (SAC) solders undergo continuous microstructural coarsening during both storage and service because of their high homologous temperature. The microstructures of these low melting point alloys continuously evolve during service. This results in evolution of creep properties of the joint over time, thereby influencing the long term reliability of microelectronic packages. It is well documented that isothermal aging degrades the creep resistance of SAC solder. SAC305 alloy is aged for (24-1000) h at (25-100)°C (~0.6-0.8 × T melt). Cross-sectioning and image processing techniques were used to periodically quantify the effect of isothermal aging on phase coarsening and evolution. The parameters monitored during isothermal aging include size, area fraction, and inter-particle spacing of nanoscale Ag3Sn intermetallic compounds (IMCs) and the volume fraction of micronscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs, as well as the area fraction of pure tin dendrites. Effects of microstructural evolution on secondary creep constitutive response of SAC305 solder joints were then modeled using a mechanistic multiscale creep model. The mechanistic phenomena modeled include: (1) dispersion strengthening by coarsened nanoscale Ag3Sn IMCs in the eutectic phase; and (2) load sharing between pro-eutectic Sn dendrites and the surrounding coarsened eutectic Sn-Ag phase and microscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs. The coarse-grained polycrystalline Sn microstructure in SAC305 solder was not captured in the above model because isothermal aging does not cause any significant change in the initial grain size and orientation of SAC305 solder joints. The above mechanistic model can successfully capture the drop in creep resistance due to the influence of isothermal aging on SAC305 single crystals. Contribution of grain boundary sliding to the creep strain of

  6. A Functional Threshold for Long-Term Use of Hand and Arm Function Can Be Determined: Predictions From a Computational Model and Supporting Data From the Extremity Constraint-Induced Therapy Evaluation (EXCITE) Trial

    PubMed Central

    Han, Cheol E.; Wolf, Steven L.; Arbib, Michael A.; Winstein, Carolee J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Although spontaneous use of the more-affected arm and hand after stroke is an important determinant of participation and quality of life, a number of patients exhibit decreases in use following rehabilitative therapy. A previous neurocomputational model predicted that if the dose of therapy is sufficient to bring performance above a certain threshold, training can be stopped. Objective The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there exists a threshold for function of the paretic arm and hand after therapy. If function is above this threshold, spontaneous use will increase in the months following therapy. In contrast, if function is below this threshold, spontaneous use will decrease. Methods New computer simulations are presented showing that changes in arm use following therapy depend on a performance threshold. This prediction was tested by reanalyzing the data from the Extremity Constraint-Induced Therapy Evaluation (EXCITE) trial, a phase III randomized controlled trial in which participants received constraint-induced movement therapy for 2 weeks and were tested both 1 week and 1 year after therapy. Results The results demonstrate that arm and hand function measured immediately after therapy predicts, on average, the long-term change of arm use. Above a functional threshold, use improves. Below this threshold, use decreases. Limitations The reanalysis of the EXCITE trial data provides a “group” threshold above which a majority of patients, but not all, improve spontaneously. A goal of future research is to provide the means to assess when patients reach their individual threshold. Conclusion Understanding of the causal and nonlinear relationship between limb function and daily use is important for the future development of cost-effective interventions and prevention of “rehabilitation in vain.” PMID:19797304

  7. Long-term preservation of Anammox bacteria

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Deposit of useful microorganisms in culture collections requires long-term preservation and successful reactivation techniques. The goal of this study was to develop a simple preservation protocol for the long-term storage and reactivation of the anammox biomass. To achieve this, anammox biomass w...

  8. Long Term Preservation of Digital Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lorie, Raymond A.

    The preservation of digital data for the long term presents a variety of challenges from technical to social and organizational. The technical challenge is to ensure that the information, generated today, can survive long term changes in storage media, devices, and data formats. This paper presents a novel approach to the problem. It distinguishes…

  9. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  10. Layer model for long-term deflection analysis of cracked reinforced concrete bending members

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacinskas, Darius; Kaklauskas, Gintaris; Gribniak, Viktor; Sung, Wen-Pei; Shih, Ming-Hsiang

    2012-05-01

    A numerical technique has been proposed for the long-term deformation analysis of reinforced concrete members subjected to a bending moment. The technique based on the layer approach in a simple and rational way deals with such complex issues as concrete cracking and tension-stiffening as well as creep and shrinkage. The approach uses the material stress-strain relationships for compressive concrete, cracked tensile concrete and steel. Such effects as linear and nonlinear creep, cracking, tension-stiffening as well as the reduction in concrete tension strength due to sustained loading have been taken into account. The shrinkage effect has been modeled by means of adequate actions of axial force and bending moment. A statistical deflection calculation analysis has been carried out for 322 experimental reinforced concrete beams reported in the literature. The comparative analysis of the experimental and the modeling results has shown that the proposed technique has well captured the time-deflection behavior of reinforced concrete flexural members. The results of the predictions by ACI 318 and Eurocode 2 design codes have been also discussed.

  11. Paying for long-term care.

    PubMed Central

    Estes, C L; Bodenheimer, T

    1994-01-01

    Everyone agrees that insurance for long-term care is inadequate in the United States. Disagreement exists, however, on whether such insurance should be provided through the private or public sector. Private insurance generally uses the experience-rating principle that persons with higher risk of illness are charged higher premiums. For private insurance for long-term care, this principle creates a dilemma. Most policies will be purchased by the elderly; yet, because the elderly have a high risk of needing long-term care, only about 20% of them can afford the cost of premiums. A public-private partnership by which the government partially subsidizes private long-term-care insurance is unlikely to resolve this dilemma. Only a social insurance program for long-term care can provide universal, affordable, and equitable coverage. PMID:8128712

  12. Detection and Prediction of Creep-Damage of Copper Using Nonlinear Acoustic Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayana, V. J. S.; Balasubramaniam, K.; Prakash, R. V.

    2010-02-01

    This paper describes the use of nonlinear acoustic techniques for the characterization of material damage gradient in 99.98% pure copper due to high temperature creep. Creep damage progression was monitored by conducting continuous and interrupted modes of creep tests. In case of continuous loading, nonlinear ultrasonic (NLU) measurements were conducted, after fracture at different locations along the gage length of the sample. For interrupted tests, the NLU measurements were conducted at different creep life fractions, through periodic interruption of creep test. The third harmonic was more sensitive to creep damage compared to second and static component nonlinearity. All samples show one peak in the nonlinear response at 25-45% of creep life. Finally, we presented the results of nonlinear response working at low power levels, since the interesting effect of accumulated dislocations. Using that effect we applied to creep damage detection. In this the NLU amplitude vs. input amplitude was observed to correlate well with the micro-void concentrations caused by creep conditions.

  13. Irradiation Induced Creep of Graphite

    SciTech Connect

    Burchell, Timothy D; Murty, Prof K.L.; Eapen, Dr. Jacob

    2010-01-01

    The current status of graphite irradiation induced creep strain prediction is reviewed and the major creep models are described. The ability of the models to quantitatively predict the irradiation induced creep strain of graphite is reported. Potential mechanisms of in-crystal creep are reviewed as are mechanisms of pore generation under stress. The case for further experimental work is made and the need for improved creep models across multi-scales is highlighted.

  14. Science communication. Comment on "Quantifying long-term scientific impact".

    PubMed

    Wang, Jian; Mei, Yajun; Hicks, Diana

    2014-07-11

    Wang et al. (Reports, 4 October 2013, p. 127) claimed high prediction power for their model of citation dynamics. We replicate their analysis but find discouraging results: 14.75% papers are estimated with unreasonably large μ (>5) and λ (>10) and correspondingly enormous prediction errors. The prediction power is even worse than simply using short-term citations to approximate long-term citations. PMID:25013055

  15. The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

    2006-01-01

    Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

  16. Mental Health in Long Term Care Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, Herbert

    1978-01-01

    There are many ways in which long-term care facilities attempt to cope with the mental health problems of the elderly. The author reviews five factors crucial to effective care for the aged in these facilities. (Author/RK)

  17. Asthma Medicines: Long-Term Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... Español Text Size Email Print Share Asthma Medicines: Long-term Control Page Content Article Body Corticosteroids Synthetic ... and sprinkle forms are available for young children. Long-Acting Beta2-Agonists Medications in the beta 2 - ...

  18. Long Term Effects of Food Poisoning

    MedlinePlus

    ... develop chronic arthritis. Brain and nerve damage A Listeria infection can lead to meningitis, an inflammation of ... brain. If a newborn infant is infected with Listeria , long-term consequences may include mental retardation, seizures, ...

  19. Method for Water Management Considering Long-term Probabilistic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, J.; Kang, J.; Suh, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    This research is aimed at predicting the monthly inflow of the Andong-dam basin in South Korea using long-term probabilistic forecasts to apply long-term forecasts to water management. Forecasted Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) of monthly precipitation are plotted by combining the range of monthly precipitation based on proper Probability Density Function (PDF) in past data with probabilistic forecasts in each category. Ensembles of inflow are estimated by entering generated ensembles of precipitation based on the CDFs into the 'abcd' water budget model. The bias and RMSE between averages in past data and observed inflow are compared to them in forecasted ensembles. In our results, the bias and RMSE of average precipitation in the forecasted ensemble are bigger than in past data, whereas the average inflow in the forecasted ensemble is smaller than in past data. This result could be used for reference data to apply long-term forecasts to water management, because of the limit in the number of forecasted data for verification and differences between the Andong-dam basin and the forecasted regions. This research has significance by suggesting a method of applying probabilistic information in climate variables from long-term forecasts to water management in Korea. Original data of a climate model, which produces long-term probabilistic forecasts should be verified directly as input data of a water budget model in the future, so that a more scientific response in water management against uncertainty of climate change could be reached.

  20. Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

    SciTech Connect

    Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

    2007-08-15

    A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield.

  1. Stirling engine - Approach for long-term durability assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tong, Michael T.; Bartolotta, Paul A.; Halford, Gary R.; Freed, Alan D.

    1992-01-01

    The approach employed by NASA Lewis for the long-term durability assessment of the Stirling engine hot-section components is summarized. The approach consists of: preliminary structural assessment; development of a viscoplastic constitutive model to accurately determine material behavior under high-temperature thermomechanical loads; an experimental program to characterize material constants for the viscoplastic constitutive model; finite-element thermal analysis and structural analysis using a viscoplastic constitutive model to obtain stress/strain/temperature at the critical location of the hot-section components for life assessment; and development of a life prediction model applicable for long-term durability assessment at high temperatures. The approach should aid in the provision of long-term structural durability and reliability of Stirling engines.

  2. The long-term alteration of borosilicate waste glasses

    SciTech Connect

    Ebert, W.L.; Bates, J.K.; Bradley, C.R.; Buck, E.C.; Dietz, N.L.; Brown, N.R.

    1993-06-01

    Prediction of the long-term durability of glass waste forms under potential disposal conditions is based on a mechanistic model of glass corrosion which has been derived from short-term laboratory tests. The model of glass reaction that has evolved identifies the hydrolysis of an Si-0 bond to release silicic acid as the step which controls the long-term glass reactivity. This reaction step is initially fast under dilute solution conditions, but slows as the silicic acid concentration in solution increases. An increase in the solution concentrations of glass components will occur with progressive glass corrosion, and so the solutions which contact waste glasses over long reaction times will have high concentrations of glass components. Therefore, the glass reactivity is usually expected to decrease with the reaction progress as the contacting solution becomes more concentrated. The corrosion behavior of glasses contacted by highly concentrated solutions must be characterized to assess the long-term glass stability.

  3. Feeding the foal for immediate and long-term health.

    PubMed

    Becvarova, I; Buechner-Maxwell, V

    2012-02-01

    The nutrition and nutritional status of the mare, as well as foal's nutrient intake from colostrum, milk and creep feed, are critical factors that are known to influence the growth period of the foal. Long-term effects of mare and foal nutrition are not well recognised or understood in the horse but may have the greatest impact on the animal's health and use when mature. Both under- and overfeeding can negatively influence important characteristics such as bone development and neurological function The risk of developing debilitating diseases such as metabolic syndrome may also be increased by mare, fetal and early foal feeding, supporting the importance of providing a balanced diet to mare and foal throughout gestation and beyond. PMID:22594043

  4. Comparison of measured temperatures, thermal stresses and creep residues with predictions on a built-up titanium structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, Jerald M.

    1987-01-01

    Temperature, thermal stresses, and residual creep stresses were studied by comparing laboratory values measured on a built-up titanium structure with values calculated from finite-element models. Several such models were used to examine the relationship between computational thermal stresses and thermal stresses measured on a built-up structure. Element suitability, element density, and computational temperature discrepancies were studied to determine their impact on measured and calculated thermal stress. The optimum number of elements is established from a balance between element density and suitable safety margins, such that the answer is acceptably safe yet is economical from a computational viewpoint. It is noted that situations exist where relatively small excursions of calculated temperatures from measured values result in far more than proportional increases in thermal stress values. Measured residual stresses due to creep significantly exceeded the values computed by the piecewise linear elastic strain analogy approach. The most important element in the computation is the correct definition of the creep law. Computational methodology advances in predicting residual stresses due to creep require significantly more viscoelastic material characterization.

  5. Comprehensive Creep and Thermophysical Performance of Refractory Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.K.; Wereszczak, A.; Hemrick, J.A.

    2006-06-29

    Furnace designers and refractory engineers recognize that optimized furnace superstructure design and refractory selection are needed as glass production furnaces are continually striving toward greater output and efficiencies. Harsher operating conditions test refractories to the limit, while changing production technology (such as the conversion to oxy-fuel from traditional air-fuel firing) can alter the way the materials perform [1-3]. Refractories for both oxy- and air-fuel fired furnace superstructures (see Fig. 1) are subjected to high temperatures that may cause them to creep excessively or subside during service if the refractory material is not creep resistant, or if it is subjected to high stress, or both. Furnace designers can ensure that superstructure structural integrity is maintained if the creep behavior of the refractory material is well understood and well represented by appropriate engineering creep models. Several issues limit the abilities of furnace designers to (1) choose the optimum refractory for their applications, (2) optimize the engineering design, or (3) predict the service mechanical integrity of their furnace superstructures. Published engineering creep data are essentially nonexistent for almost all commercially available refractories used for glass furnace superstructures. The limited data that do exist are supplied by the various refractory suppliers. Unfortunately, the suppliers generally have different ways of conducting their mechanical testing, and they interpret and report their data differently. This inconsistency makes it hard for furnace designers to draw fair comparisons between competing grades of candidate refractories. Furthermore, the refractory suppliers' data are often not available in a form that can be readily used for furnace design or for the prediction and design of long-term structural integrity of furnace superstructures. As a consequence, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Technology Program (ITP

  6. Short and long-term strength of shale rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybacki, Erik; Dresen, Georg

    2016-04-01

    Stimulation of oil and gas bearing shales commonly utilizes advanced hydraulic fracturing techniques to enhance the production rate. Successful hydrofrac campaigns depend on the geomechanical properties of the reservoir. For example, the short term strength and brittleness may control the hydraulic breakdown pressure and borehole stability. The long term creep properties may determine the closure rate of hydraulically induced fractures, for example by proppant embedment. We performed a series of mechanical tests on shales with different mineral content, porosity and maturity. Cylindrical samples of 1-5 cm in diameter and 2-10 cm in length were deformed at confining pressures of 0.1 - 400 MPa and temperatures of 25°-400°C in constant strain rate and constant stress mode in order to evaluate the influence of loading conditions and composition on their strength and ductility. Short-term constant strain rate tests show that, at fixed loading direction with respect to bedding orientation, the peak strength and Young's modulus vary with mineral content, humidity and porosity, but depend also on applied pressure, temperature and strain rate. The (porosity-corrected) variation of peak strength and Young's modulus with composition can be roughly estimated from the mechanical behavior of all components at given pressure-temperature conditions and their volumetric proportion. Samples deforming in the brittle-semibrittle regime may be characterized by empirical brittleness indices based on their deformation behavior, Young's modulus, or bulk composition. These indices are correlated at low pressure-temperature conditions (corresponding to < about 4 km depth). First long-term deformation experiments at constant load show transient viscoplastic creep behavior. The associated strain rates increase with increasing differential stress, increasing temperature and decreasing pressure, accompanied by slight porosity reduction. Therefore, estimates of fracture healing rates by

  7. Relating Granger causality to long-term causal effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, Dmitry A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2015-10-01

    In estimation of causal couplings between observed processes, it is important to characterize coupling roles at various time scales. The widely used Granger causality reflects short-term effects: it shows how strongly perturbations of a current state of one process affect near future states of another process, and it quantifies that via prediction improvement (PI) in autoregressive models. However, it is often more important to evaluate the effects of coupling on long-term statistics, e.g., to find out how strongly the presence of coupling changes the variance of a driven process as compared to an uncoupled case. No general relationships between Granger causality and such long-term effects are known. Here, we pose the problem of relating these two types of coupling characteristics, and we solve it for a class of stochastic systems. Namely, for overdamped linear oscillators, we rigorously derive that the above long-term effect is proportional to the short-term effects, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the prediction interval and relaxation times. We reveal that this coefficient is typically considerably greater than unity so that small normalized PI values may well correspond to quite large long-term effects of coupling. The applicability of the derived relationship to wider classes of systems, its limitations, and its value for further research are discussed. To give a real-world example, we analyze couplings between large-scale climatic processes related to sea surface temperature variations in equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic regions.

  8. Long-term Behavior of DNAPL Residuals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Illangasekare, T.; Kitanidis, P. K.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding and being able to predict the long-term behavior of DNAPL (i.e., TCE) residuals in the source zone are significant in the evaluation of plume spreading. We apply both theoretical analysis and pore-scale simulations to investigate the mass transfer and the effect of reductive dechlorination, in which the contaminant behaves as electron acceptor. At the upfront of the source zone, where the boundary layer has not fully developed, the mass transfer increases as a power-law function of the Peclet number, and is enhanced by biodegradation. These results are consistent with past findings. Under certain conditions, further downstream inside the source zone, the rate of dissolution is slower due to the diluted mass from upstream. Widely applied first-order biodegradation implicitly assumes that the reaction solely depends on the concentration of the contaminant. However, in the slow dilution region, the limitation of electron donor on biodegradation is not negligible. For the reaction between an electron donor and an electron acceptor with intrinsic second-order kinetics, the late-time bio-reaction demonstrates a first-order decay macroscopically with respect to the mass of electron donor, not with respect to that of the contaminant. The late-time decay rate only depends on the intrinsic rate and the solubility of the contaminant. During the intermediate time, affecting by both the concentrations of electron donor and electron acceptor, the first-order decay is not valid. We show that the electron donor decays as exp(-t^2), instead of exp(-t). Moreover, the intermediate-time decay rate is a function of the spatial distribution of DNAPL residuals and the initial conditions.he relationship of the Sherwood number and Peclet number (Comparison of pore-scale simulations and best-fitting curve) he decay of electron donor as a function of t^2

  9. Long term integrity for space station power systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leckie, F. A.; Marriott, D. L.

    1991-01-01

    A study was made of the High Temperature Design Codes ASME N47, British R5, and the French RCC-MR Rules. It is concluded that all these codes provide a good basis of design for space application. The new British R5 is the most complete since it deals with the problem of defects. The ASME N47 was subjected longer to practical application and scrutiny. A draft code is introduced, and a proposed draft for high temperature design in which attempts were made to identify gaps and improvements is suggested. The design is limited by creep characteristics. In these circumstances, life is strongly affected by the selected value of the factor of safety. The factor of safety of primary loads adopted in the codes is 1.5. Maybe a lower value of 1.25 is permissible for use in space. Long term creep rupture data for HAYNES 188 is deficient and it is suggested that extrapolation methods be investigated.

  10. Long-term Multiwavelength Observations of Polars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santana, Joshua; Mason, Paul A.

    2016-06-01

    Polars are cataclysmic variables with the highest magnetic field strengths (10-250 MG). Matter is accreted after being funneled by the strong magnetic field of the white dwarf. We perform a meta-study of multi-wavelength data of polars. Many polars have been observed in surveys, such as SDSS, 2MASS, ROSAT, just to name a few. Some polars have now been detected by the JVLA, part of an expanding class of radio CVs. A large subset of polars have long-term optical light curves from CRTS and AAVSO. We suggest that the long term light curves of polars display a variety of signature behaviors and may be grouped accordingly. Additional characteristics such a binary period, magnetic field strengths, X-ray properties, and distance estimates are examined in context with long-term observations.

  11. Scenarios for long-term analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wolbers, Stephen; /Fermilab

    2009-01-01

    Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis of High Energy Physics (HEP) Experiments data is described and summarized in this talk. The summary covers information presented at the First Workshop on Data Preservation and Long-Term Analysis. Experiments representing e{sup +}e{sup -} collisions (LEP, B Factories and CLEO), ep collisions (H1 and ZEUS), p{bar p} collisions (CDF and D0) and others presented interesting information related to utilizing the large datasets collected over many years at these HEP facilities. Many questions and issues remain to be explored.

  12. Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines

    PubMed Central

    Potts, Nicholas L.S.; Krishnan, K. Ranga R.

    1992-01-01

    Problems associated with physical dependence and abuse of benzodiazepines by a small percentage of patients have reduced their popularity from the most commonly prescribed psychoactive drug in the 1970s to being prescribed for mainly short periods. Patients who benefit from long-term benzodiazepine use are nearly ignored by the medical community as a whole. This article details what patient population can improve from long-term benzodiazepine therapy, the risks and benefits of treatment, and how to select appropriate candidates. PMID:21229127

  13. Long-term Outcomes after Severe Shock

    PubMed Central

    Pratt, Cristina M.; Hirshberg, Eliotte L.; Jones, Jason P.; Kuttler, Kathryn G.; Lanspa, Michael J.; Wilson, Emily L.; Hopkins, Ramona O.; Brown, Samuel M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Methods Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 mcg/kg/min of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured three-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. Results The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years: 82% (62/76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of five years after hospital admission. The patients’ Physical Functioning scores were below US population norms (p<0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full time. Conclusions Early survivors of severe shock had a high three-year survival rate. Patients’ long term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill ICU survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term

  14. Application of strainrange partitioning to the prediction of MPC creep-fatigue data for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    Creep-fatigue tests were conducted on annealed 2.25Cr-1Mo steel in air at 538 C involving interspersion of rapid strain cycles (0 to 22 cycles) between constant tensile stress-hold periods (23 or 47 hours). Life predictions were made on the basis of the strain range-life relations obtained from short-time material characterization tests on tubular specimens taken from the same heat as the specimens for the creep-fatigue tests. The creep-fatigue tests lasted from about 500 to 5000 hours, while the short-time tests used as the prediction basis lasted from 0.1 to 100 hours. By partitioning the creep and plastic strains within every cycle and summing the damage on a cycle-by-cycle basis, the predicted lives agreed with the observed ones within factors of two.

  15. Micromechanical modelling of short-term and long-term large-strain behaviour of polyethylene terephthalate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poluektov, M.; van Dommelen, J. A. W.; Govaert, L. E.; Yakimets, I.; Geers, M. G. D.

    2013-12-01

    A micromechanically based model is used to describe the mechanical behaviour of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) under uniaxial compression up to large strains and at different temperatures. The creep behaviour of isotropic PET is simulated and compared to experimental data to demonstrate the applicability of the model to describe the long-term response. The material is modelled as an aggregate of two-phase layered domains, where different constitutive laws are used for the phases. A hybrid interaction law between the domains is adopted. The crystalline phase is modelled with crystal plasticity and the amorphous phase with the Eindhoven Glassy Polymer model, taking into account material ageing effects. Model parameters for the selected constitutive laws of the phases are identified from uniaxial compression tests for fully amorphous material and semicrystalline material. Texture evolution during the deformation predicted by the model adequately matches previously observed texture evolution.

  16. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  17. Long Term Care Aide. Course Outline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilbee, Judy

    This course outline is intended to assist the instructor in the development of a curriculum for a long-term care aide program by specifying one component of the curriculum--the objectives. These objectives, or competencies expected as outcomes for student performance on completion of the program, describe the capabilities an individual must…

  18. Who Recommends Long-Term Care Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Robert L.; Bershadsky, Boris; Bershadsky, Julie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Making good consumer decisions requires having good information. This study compared long-term-care recommendations among various types of health professionals. Design and Methods: We gave randomly varied scenarios to a convenience national sample of 211 professionals from varying disciplines and work locations. For each scenario, we…

  19. Long-term fixed income market structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grilli, Luca

    2004-02-01

    Long-term fixed income market securities present a strong positive correlation in daily returns. By using a metrical approach and considering “modified” time series, I show how it is possible to show a more complex structure which depends strictly on the maturity date.

  20. Professionalism in Long-Term Care Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubinski, Rosemary

    2006-01-01

    Speech-language pathologists who serve elders in a variety of long-term care settings have a variety of professional skills and responsibilities. Fundamental to quality service is knowledge of aging and communication changes and disorders associated with this process, institutional alternatives, and the changing nature of today's elders in…

  1. LONG TERM HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LTHIA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    LTHIA is a universal Urban Sprawl analysis tool that is available to all at no charge through the Internet. It estimates impacts on runoff, recharge and nonpoint source pollution resulting from past or proposed land use changes. It gives long-term average annual runoff for a lan...

  2. NATIONAL LONG TERM CARE SURVEY (NLTCS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) are surveys of the entire aged population with a particular emphasis on the functionally impaired. Longitudinal study of the health and well-being of elderly Americans. Information about the population of chronically disabled elderly person...

  3. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  4. Long-Term Stability of Social Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo

    2008-01-01

    The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…

  5. Long-term sealing analyses for US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Ehgartner, B.

    1994-02-01

    It is inevitable that sealing and abandonment will someday occur in a SPR cavern or caverns. To gain insight into the long-term behavior of a typical SPR cavern following sealing and abandonment, a suite of mechanical finite-element calculations was performed. The initial analyses predict how quickly and to what extent a cavern pressurizes after it is plugged. The analyses also examine the stability of the cavern as it changes shape due to the excessive pressures generated as the salt creeps and the brine in the cavern thermally expands. These large-scale analyses do not include the details of the plug but assume a good seal is established in the cavern wells. In another series of analyses, the potential for forming a leak at the plug is evaluated. A cement plug, emplaced in the casing seat of a cavern well, is loaded using the predicted brine pressures from the cavern analyses. The plugged casing analyses examine the potential for forming a leak path in and along the interfaces of salt, casing, and cement plug. In the last set of analysis, the dimensional scale of the problem is further reduced to examine a preexisting crack along a casing/salt interface. The cracked interface is assumed to be fluid filled and fully pressurized by the cavern fluids. The analyses address the potential for the fluid path to extend upwards along a plugged casing should an open microannulus surround the casing after it is plugged.

  6. Long-term change in thermospheric temperature above Saint Santin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donaldson, J. K.; Wellman, T. J.; Oliver, W. L.

    2010-11-01

    The 1966-1987 Saint Santin/Nançay incoherent scatter radar database is analyzed to determine long-term trends beyond those associated with the "natural" variations of solar and magnetic activity, season, and time of day. Trends averaging some -3 K/yr are found in the F region. Positive trends in the E region may be explained by the subsidence of an overlying warmer regime of air. The trend line seems to change slope around the "breakpoint" year 1979, with the cooling changing from -0.8 K/yr before that time to -5.5 K/yr afterward at 350 km altitude. These trends greatly exceed those predicted by model simulations for increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, carbon dioxide shows no such breakpoint year, but ozone does, near the time of the change in thermospheric trend, and a surface climatic regime shift has also been reported near this time. It is not clear that greenhouse gases are driving the long-term trend in thermospheric temperature. Restriction of analysis to a particular time of day results in greatly different trends, from near zero at midnight to -6 K/yr at noon at 350 km altitude. A separate analysis to determine the long-term trend in the amplitude of the 24 h tide at 350 km altitude shows a large change, with the amplitude diminishing from 136 K in 1966 to 89 K in 1988. Our results show the great need to remove all other natural variations from long-term data sets in determining long-term trends to avoid great ambiguity in trend interpretation.

  7. Prediction of creep life exhaustion in high energy piping system girth welds

    SciTech Connect

    Cohn, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    Conventional United States designs of high energy fossil power piping systems use the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) B31.1 Power Piping Code. Analytical methodology in the Code is based on thin shell linear elastic beam theory. The Code is developed to be used as a piping system design tool. It is inadequate as a tool to evaluate some in-service problems in high energy piping systems. Main steam and hot reheat piping system materials are usually subject to creep during normal operation. The process of time dependent material creep damage leads to accelerated rates of creep cavitation and life consumption. This effect results in the redistribution of high thermal stresses and material property degradation in service. There are no guidelines in the Code to address life consumption or in-service degradation issues. A methodology is presented which considers an approach to evaluate the time dependent life consumption in high energy piping systems. This approach is applied in a case study to reconcile stresses which significantly exceed the Code stress allowable. The paper also includes an approach to select highest creep damage locations for nondestructive examination (NDE).

  8. Long term mortality in burned children

    PubMed Central

    Stamboulian, Daniel; Lede, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Studies about risk factors for mortality in burn children are scarce and are even less in the follow up of this population across time. Usually, after complete event attendance, children are not follow-up as risk patients, burn injury affects all facets of life. Integration of professionals from different disciplines has enabled burn centers to develop collaborative methods of assessing the quality of care delivered to patients with burns. In this editorial we comment the paper of Duke et al. The authors highlight the importance of maintaining a long-term monitoring of children who suffered burns. The importance of this original study is to promote the reconsideration of clinical guides of long-term follow-up of burn patients. PMID:26835375

  9. Long term mortality in burned children.

    PubMed

    Rosanova, María Teresa; Stamboulian, Daniel; Lede, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Studies about risk factors for mortality in burn children are scarce and are even less in the follow up of this population across time. Usually, after complete event attendance, children are not follow-up as risk patients, burn injury affects all facets of life. Integration of professionals from different disciplines has enabled burn centers to develop collaborative methods of assessing the quality of care delivered to patients with burns. In this editorial we comment the paper of Duke et al. The authors highlight the importance of maintaining a long-term monitoring of children who suffered burns. The importance of this original study is to promote the reconsideration of clinical guides of long-term follow-up of burn patients. PMID:26835375

  10. Long-term safety of retinoid therapy.

    PubMed

    Vahlquist, A

    1992-12-01

    The concern about long-term toxicity of oral synthetic retinoids has developed because many patients, especially those with genodermatoses, require lifelong therapy. Several organ systems are at risk, especially the hepatic, skeletal, and cardiovascular systems. Although acute hepatotoxicity is a rare side effect of etretinate and acitretin therapy, prospective studies have not demonstrated chronic liver toxicity. The frequency of bone changes induced by retinoids is difficult to estimate, because this adverse effect is usually asymptomatic and requires x-ray or scintigraphic examination for detection. Atherosclerosis develops in many patients who receive long-term retinoid therapy, but the extent to which the process is aggravated by drug-induced hyperlipidemia is not known. Many patients have now been treated with either etretinate or isotretinoin continuously for as many as 15 years and have not developed any signs of severe chronic toxicity. However, continued intense surveillance is recommended for patients expected to require lifelong therapy. PMID:1460122

  11. [Taiwan long-term care insurance and the evolution of long-term care in Japan].

    PubMed

    Huang, Hui-Wen; Liu, Shu-Hui; Pai, Yu-Chu

    2010-08-01

    The proportion of elderly (65 years of age and older) in Taiwan has exceeded 10% since 2008. With more elderly, the number of patients suffering from dementia and disabilities has also been rapidly increasing. Japan also has been facing increasing demand for long-term care due to an aging society. Prior to 2000, social welfare programs in Japan, working to cope with changing needs, typically provided insufficient services, and geriatric patients were hospitalized unnecessarily, wasting medical resources and causing undue patient hardship. In response, Japan launched its long-term care insurance program in April 2000. Under the program, city, town and village-based organizations should take responsibility for providing care to the elderly in their place of residence. The program significantly improved previous financial shortfalls and long-term care supply and demand has been met by existing social welfare organization resources. In Taiwan, the provision of long-term care by county / city authorities has proven inconsistent, with performance deemed poor after its first decade of long-term care operations. Service was found to be affected by differences in available resources and insufficient long-term care administration. The cultures of Taiwan and Japan are similar. The authors visited the Japan Long-Term Care Insurance Institute in August 2009. Main issues involved in the implementation and evolution of the Japan long-term Care Insurance are reported on in this paper. We hope such may be useful information to those working to develop long-term care programs in Taiwan. PMID:20661859

  12. Long-term sequelae of electrical injury

    PubMed Central

    Wesner, Marni L.; Hickie, John

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To summarize the current evidence-based knowledge about the long-term sequelae of injuries from electrical current. Quality of evidence MEDLINE was searched for English-language articles published in the past 20 years using the following search terms: electrical, injuries, wound, trauma, accident, sequelae, long-term, follow-up, and aftereffects. For obvious reasons, it is unethical to randomly study electrical injury in controlled clinical trials. By necessity, this topic is addressed in less-rigorous observational and retrospective work and case studies. Therefore, the strength of the literature pertaining to the long-term sequelae of electrical injury is impaired by the necessity of retrospective methods and case studies that typically describe small cohorts. Main message There are 2 possible consequences of electrical injury: the person either survives or dies. For those who survive electrical injury, the immediate consequences are usually obvious and often require extensive medical intervention. The long-term sequelae of the electrical injury might be more subtle, pervasive, and less well defined, but can include neurologic, psychological, and physical symptoms. In the field of compensation medicine, determining causation and attributing outcome to an injury that might not result in objective clinical findings becomes a considerable challenge. Conclusion The appearance of these consequences of electrical injury might be substantially delayed, with onset 1 to 5 or more years after the electrical injury. This poses a problem for patients and health care workers, making it hard to ascribe symptoms to a remote injury when they might not arise until well after the incident event. PMID:24029506

  13. Long-term Variation of AGNs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, J. H.; Xie, G. Z.; Adam, G.; Copin, Y.; Lin, R. G.; Bai, J. M.; Quin, Y. P.

    In this paper we will present the long-term variation in the optical and the infrared bands for some selected AGNs. 1. Some new optical data observed by us have been presented for BL Lacertae (1995-1996) and OJ 287 (1994-1995), and new infrared data are presented for OJ 287 (Nov=2E 1995), which corresponds to the second optical peak (Sillanpaa et al. 1996; Takalo et al. 1996) and during last outburst. 2. For objects with long term observations, the Jurkevich's method has been used to analyses the long-term variation period. It is interesting that the reported periods of AGNs are of the similar value of about 10 years: 3C 345 11.4 years (Webb et al. 1988), 3C 120 15 years (Belokon et al. 1987; Hagen-Thorn et al. 1997), ON 231 13.6 years (Liu et al. 1995), OJ 287 12 years (Sillanpaa et al. 1988; Kidger et al. 1992), PKS 0735+178 14 years (Fan et al. 1997), NGC 4151 15 years (Fan et al. 1998a), BL Lacertae 14.0 years (Fan et al. 1998b). Is the mechanism for the long-term variation the same for different AGNs? 3. The DCF method has been adopted to analysis the variation correlation in the optical and infrared bands for BL Lac object OJ 287, the results show that these two bands are strongly correlated, which suggest that the emission mechanism in the two bands is the same. 4. For the optical and infrared bands, the maximum variations are correlated.

  14. Long-term home hemodialysis in children

    PubMed Central

    Borra, Sonia; Kaye, Michael

    1971-01-01

    Experience with chronic hemodialysis as a definitive form of therapy is described for six children aged 11 to 15 years at the onset. Duration on dialysis in the home has been between one and 4½ years. All patients are alive and rehabilitated without serious complications. It is concluded that although transplantation is the most desirable form of treatment for children, long-term hemodialysis is an alternative acceptable second choice. ImagesFIG. 2 PMID:5150193

  15. Long-term consequences of anorexia nervosa.

    PubMed

    Meczekalski, Blazej; Podfigurna-Stopa, Agnieszka; Katulski, Krzysztof

    2013-07-01

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a psychiatric disorder that occurs mainly in female adolescents and young women. The obsessive fear of weight gain, critically limited food intake and neuroendocrine aberrations characteristic of AN have both short- and long-term consequences for the reproductive, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and skeletal systems. Neuroendocrine changes include impairment of gonadotropin releasing-hormone (GnRH) pulsatile secretion and changes in neuropeptide activity at the hypothalamic level, which cause profound hypoestrogenism. AN is related to a decrease in bone mass density, which can lead to osteopenia and osteoporosis and a significant increase in fracture risk in later life. Rates of birth complications and low birth weight may be higher in women with previous AN. The condition is associated with fertility problems, unplanned pregnancies and generally negative attitudes to pregnancy. During pregnancy, women with the condition have higher rates of hyperemesis gravidarum, anaemia and obstetric complications, as well as impaired weight gain and compromised intrauterine foetal growth. It is reported that 80% of AN patients are affected by a cardiac complications such as sinus bradycardia, a prolonged QT interval on electrocardiography, arrythmias, myocardial mass modification and hypotension. A decrease in bone mineral density (BMD) is one of the most important medical consequences of AN. Reduced BMD may subsequently lead to a three- to seven-fold increased risk of spontaneous fractures. Untreated AN is associated with a significant increase in the risk of death. Better detection and sophisticated therapy should prevent the long-term consequences of this disorder. The aims of treatment are not only recovery but also prophylaxis and relief of the long-term effects of this disorder. Further investigations of the long-term disease risk are needed. PMID:23706279

  16. Titanium for long-term tritium storage

    SciTech Connect

    Heung, L.K.

    1994-12-01

    Due to the reduction of nuclear weapon stockpile, there will be an excess of tritium returned from the field. The excess tritium needs to be stored for future use, which might be several years away. A safe and cost effective means for long term storage of tritium is needed. Storing tritium in a solid metal tritide is preferred to storing tritium as a gas, because a metal tritide can store tritium in a compact form and the stored tritium will not be released until heat is applied to increase its temperature to several hundred degrees centigrade. Storing tritium as a tritide is safer and more cost effective than as a gas. Several candidate metal hydride materials have been evaluated for long term tritium storage. They include uranium, La-Ni-Al alloys, zirconium and titanium. The criteria used include material cost, radioactivity, stability to air, storage capacity, storage pressure, loading and unloading conditions, and helium retention. Titanium has the best combination of properties and is recommended for long term tritium storage.

  17. [Long-term survival after severe trauma].

    PubMed

    Mutschler, W; Mutschler, M; Graw, M; Lefering, R

    2016-07-01

    Long-term survival after severe trauma is rarely addressed in German trauma journals although knowledge of life expectancy and identification of factors contributing to increased mortality are important for lifetime care management, development of service models, and targeting health promotion and prevention interventions. As reliable data in Germany are lacking, we compiled data mainly from the USA and Australia to describe life expectancy, risk factors, and predictors of outcome in patients experiencing traumatic spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and polytrauma. Two years after trauma, life expectancy in all three categories was significantly lower than that of the general population. It depends strongly on severity of disability, age, and gender and is quantifiable. Whereas improvements in medical care have led to a marked decline in short-term mortality, surprisingly long-term survival in severe trauma has not changed over the past 30 years. Therefore, there is need to intensify long-term trauma patient care and to find new strategies to limit primary damage. PMID:27342106

  18. Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Analysis of P91 Steel Based on Applied Mechanical Work Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, D. M.; Shen, M.-H. H.; Wang, D. X.; Ren, J. X.

    2015-01-01

    A creep-fatigue (CF) life prediction model and its simplified expression were developed based on the applied mechanical work density (AMWD). The foundation of this model was an integration of N- S curve. Comparisons of the model predicted fatigue lifetimes with the experimental data of load-controlled CF tests on P91 base metal and welded metal at 848 K from the reference were made and apparently illustrated that the model predictions were in a good agreement with the experimental fatigue lifetimes. In addition, the curve of the numbers of cycles to failure versus AMWD at the associated probability was deduced. A reliability model was constructed by combining the curve and the simplified life prediction model.

  19. Deterministic Multiaxial Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancements for CARES/Creep Integrated Design Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of sum, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of Ns methodology and the

  20. Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

    2013-01-01

    Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

  1. The Relationship between Short-Term Mentoring Benefits and Long-Term Mentor Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eby, Lillian T.; Durley, Jaime R.; Evans, Sarah C.; Ragins, Belle Rose

    2006-01-01

    Little is known about the short- and long-term benefits mentors gain from their mentoring relationships. This study examined the extent to which short-term proximal benefits reported by mentors (improved job performance, recognition by others, rewarding experience, and loyal base of support) predicted the long-term distal outcomes of mentor career…

  2. The Parable of the Sower and the Long-Term Effects of Early Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suggate, Sebastian P.

    2015-01-01

    Previous work on the long-term effects of early reading focuses on whether children can read early (i.e. capability) not on whether this is beneficial (i.e. optimality). The Luke Effect is introduced to predict long-term reading development as a function of when children learn to read. A review of correlational, intervention, and comparative…

  3. Long-term data collection at USDA experimental sites for studies of ecohydrology

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Federally established watersheds, rangelands and forests have produced long-term records of biotic and abiotic measurements that span decades and centuries across the U.S. The goal of this review is to express the value of such long-term data for understanding and predicting ecosystem dynamics and ...

  4. Long-term stability of orbits in storage rings

    SciTech Connect

    Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.

    1990-06-01

    We describe a numerical method to establish long-term bounds on nonlinear Hamiltonian motion. By bounding the change in a nearly constant action variable, uniformly in initial condition, one can predict stability for N turns by tracking many orbits for a member of turns of N{sub 0} much less than N. In a first application to a model sextupole lattice in a region of strong nonlinearity, we predict stability of betatron motion in two degrees of freedom for 10{sup 8} turns. 5 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Long-Term Monitoring Research Needs: A DOE Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, B.; Davis, C. B.

    2002-05-01

    critically on the validity and uncertainty in models used to predict contaminant fate and transport. This is an area of active research at the present time. We survey joint research initiatives in this area involving DOE along with USGS, U.S. EPA, U.S. NRC, and U.S. DOA and non-Federal collaborators, and explore their potential for furthering DOE long-term monitoring needs and objectives.

  6. Application of the cracked pipe element to creep crack growth prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Brochard, J.; Charras, T.

    1997-04-01

    The modification of a computer code for leak before break analysis is very briefly described. The CASTEM2000 code was developed for ductile fracture assessment of piping systems with postulated circumferential through-wall cracks under static or dynamic loading. The modification extends the capabilities of the cracked pipe element to the determination of fracture parameters under creep conditions (C*, {phi}c and {Delta}c). The model has the advantage of evaluating significant secondary effects, such as those from thermal loading.

  7. Application of Strainrange Partitioning to the prediction of creep-fatigue lives of AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1977-01-01

    As a demonstration of the predictive capabilities of the method of Strainrange Partitioning, published high-temperature, low cycle, creep-fatigue test results on AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel were analyzed and calculated cyclic lives compared with observed lives. Predicted lives agreed with observed lives within factors of two for 76 percent, factors of three for 93 percent, and factors of four for 98 percent of the laboratory tests analyzed. Agreement between observed and predicted lives is judged satisfactory considering that the data are associated with a number of variables (two alloys, several heats and heat treatments, a range of temperatures, different testing techniques, etc.) that are not directly accounted for in the calculations.

  8. Application of strainrange partitioning to the prediction of creep-fatigue lives of AISI types 304 and 316 stainless steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    As a demonstration of the predictive capabilities of the method of Strainrange Partitioning, published high-temperature, low cycle, creep-fatigue test results on AISI Types 304 and 316 stainless steel were analyzed and calculated, cyclic lives compared with observed lives. Predicted lives agreed with observed lives within factors of two for 76 percent, factors of three for 93 percent, and factors of four for 98 percent of the laboratory tests analyzed. Agreement between observed and predicted lives is judged satisfactory considering that the data are associated with a number of variables (two alloys, several heats and heat treatments, a range of temperatures, different testing techniques, etc.) that are not directly accounted for in the calculations.

  9. Long-term EARLINET dust observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mona, Lucia; Amiridis, Vassilis; Amodeo, Aldo; Binietoglou, Ioannis; D'Amico, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Anja; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Papayannis, Alexandros; Sicard, Michael; Comeron, Adolfo; Pappalardo, Gelsomina

    2015-04-01

    Systematic observations of Saharan dust events over Europe are performed from May 2000 by EARLINET, the European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork. EARLINET is a coordinated network of stations that make use of advanced lidar methods for the vertical profiling of aerosols. The backbone of EARLINET network is a common schedule for performing the measurements and the quality assurance of instruments/data. Particular attention is paid to monitoring the Saharan dust intrusions over the European continent. The geographical distribution of the EARLINET stations is particularly appealing for the dust observation, with stations located all around the Mediterranean and in the center of the Mediterranean (Italian stations) where dust intrusions are frequent, and with several stations in the central Europe where dust penetrates occasionally. All aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles related to observations collected during these alerts are grouped in the devoted "Saharan dust" category of the EARLINET database. This category consists of about 4700 files (as of December 2013). Case studies involving several stations around Europe selected from this long-term database have been provided the opportunity to investigate dust modification processes during transport over the continent. More important, the long term EARLINET dust monitoring allows the investigation of the horizontal and vertical extent of dust outbreaks over Europe and the climatological analysis of dust optical intensive and extensive properties at continental scale. This long-term database is also a unique tool for a systematic comparison with dust model outputs and satellite-derived dust products. Because of the relevance for both dust modeling and satellite retrievals improvement, results about desert dust layers extensive properties as a function of season and source regions are investigated and will be presented at the conference. First comparisons with models outputs and CALIPSO dust products will be

  10. [Long-term treatment with amiodarone].

    PubMed

    Baedeker, W; Goedel-Meinen, L; Schmidt, G; Hofmann, M; Barthel, P; Blömer, H

    1991-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and the side effects of a long-term treatment with amiodarone. We analyzed the data of 41 patients in whom amiodarone therapy had been initiated between 1974 and 1984. Twenty-one patients had dilative cardiomyopathy, 14 patients had chronic myocardial infarction, four patients suffered from WPW syndrome with intermittent atrial fibrillation, one patient had aortic valve surgery, whereas in one patient there was no clinical evidence of a heart disease. All patients had salvos of ventricular extrasystoles, ventricular tachycardia or documented intermittent ventricular fibrillation. There have been seven drop-outs up to the present time. In each patient, the lowest antiarrhythmically effective dose was applied, which was generally higher in patients with low ejection fraction. Effective treatment of the ventricular tachycardia was achieved in 55-92% of patients and did not depend on the duration of treatment. In 10 patients in whom amiodarone therapy had to be stopped for various reasons. Sudden cardiac death was slightly more frequent than in the 24 patients treated with amiodarone, though the difference was not significant. In cases with a history of syncope the prognosis was poor, even with amiodarone therapy. Due to side effects, a dosage reduction or discontinuation of amiodarone treatment became necessary in 14 patients. Amiodarone proved to be an effective drug also for the long-term treatment of ventricular tachycardia, and possibly for the prevention of sudden cardiac death. With the exception of blue skin color, there was no accumulation of side effects, even during long-term treatment of several years. PMID:1711739

  11. Long Term Archiving and CCSDS Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucon, Danièle

    This article presents some conceptual and implementation CCSDS -Consultative Committee for Space Data Systemsstandards for long term archiving. It focuses on the most recent one, the Producer Archive Interface Specification (PAIS) standard. This standard, currently available as a draft on the CCSDS web site, will be published by the beginning of 2014. It will enable the Producer to share with the Archive a sufficiently precise and unambiguous formal definition of the Digital Objects to be produced and transferred, by means of a model. It will also enable a precise definition of the packaging of these objects in the form of Submission Information Packages (SIPs), including the order in which they should be transferred.

  12. Long-Term Wind Power Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Wan, Y. H.

    2012-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory started collecting wind power data from large commercial wind power plants (WPPs) in southwest Minnesota with dedicated dataloggers and communication links in the spring of 2000. Over the years, additional WPPs in other areas were added to and removed from the data collection effort. The longest data stream of actual wind plant output is more than 10 years. The resulting data have been used to analyze wind power fluctuations, frequency distribution of changes, the effects of spatial diversity, and wind power ancillary services. This report uses the multi-year wind power data to examine long-term wind power variability.

  13. Long-term outcomes in multiple gestations.

    PubMed

    Rand, Larry; Eddleman, Keith A; Stone, Joanne

    2005-06-01

    Children born from a multiple gestation are at increased risk for cerebral palsy, learning disability, and language and neurobehavioral deficits. With the increased incidence of multiple pregnancies and use of assisted reproductive technology (ART), these issues are more commonly affecting parents. Long-term outcomes are a critical part of preconceptual and early pregnancy counseling for parents faced with a multiple gestation or considering ART, and the provider should be well versed on issues surrounding zygosity, gestational age, higher-order multiples, and the effects of options such as multifetal pregnancy reduction. PMID:15922795

  14. Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pap, J. M.

    1996-01-01

    Measurements of the solar energy throughout the solar spectrum and understanding its variability provide important information about the physical processes and structural changes in the solar interior and in the solar atmosphere...The aim of this paper is to discuss the solar-cycle-related long-term changes in solar total and UV irradiances. The spaceborne irradiance observations are compared to ground-based indices of solar magnetic activity, such as the Photometric Sunspot Index, full disk magnetic flux, and the Mt. Wilson Magnetic Plage Strength Index.

  15. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  16. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  17. 47 CFR 54.303 - Long term support.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Long term support. 54.303 Section 54.303... SERVICE Universal Service Support for High Cost Areas § 54.303 Long term support. (a) Beginning January 1... shall receive Long Term Support. Beginning July 1, 2004, no carrier shall receive Long Term Support....

  18. Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients

    PubMed Central

    Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

    2016-01-01

    Background Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. Methods This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline. Results The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3), and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL) and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine) were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Conclusions Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients. PMID:27275738

  19. Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

    PubMed

    Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

    2005-09-01

    We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future. PMID:16252820

  20. Long-term care as part of the continuum.

    PubMed

    McGrail, Kimberlyn

    2011-01-01

    Long-term care (LTC) is but one piece of a continuum of care that stretches from living at home completely independently to the 24-hour supervision and care provided in LTC facilities. People want to stay at home as long as possible and to retain as much independence as they can, and they are often aided in doing so with informal care provided by family and friends. These realities should inform the debates around the construction of the continuum of care. Canada's spending on facility-based long-term care puts us in the middle of the pack among OECD countries; if we consider the whole of continuing care, combining LTC, supportive housing/assisted living and home-based healthcare, Canada stands out as spending the highest proportion (among the 15 countries compared) on facility-based care. Predicting the number of new long-term care beds needed in the future is difficult because of shifting needs and changes in service delivery - new stops on the continuum of care. It is quite possible to organize a system of care that includes a continuum from home-based care to supportive housing and assisted living to LTC that de-emphasizes this last step. The increasing elderly population in Canada will not bring an apocalypse to the healthcare system, but caring for this population will require a redistribution of resources to increase the emphasis on home and community-based services. Our planning for just how many (if any) new long-term care beds are needed and our assessment of reasonable access to those beds need to rest on a vision for the full spectrum of care and attention to the desires of the population we are trying to serve. PMID:21593615

  1. Long term perfusion system supporting adipogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Abbott, Rosalyn D.; Raja, Waseem K.; Wang, Rebecca Y.; Stinson, Jordan A.; Glettig, Dean L.; Burke, Kelly A.; Kaplan, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Adipose tissue engineered models are needed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms and for soft tissue regenerative strategies. Perfusion systems generate more physiologically relevant and sustainable adipose tissue models, however adipocytes have unique properties that make culturing them in a perfusion environment challenging. In this paper we describe the methods involved in the development of two perfusion culture systems (2D and 3D) to test their applicability for long term in vitro adipogenic cultures. It was hypothesized that a silk protein biomaterial scaffold would provide a 3D framework, in combination with perfusion flow, to generate a more physiologically relevant sustainable adipose tissue engineered model than 2D cell culture. Consistent with other studies evaluating 2D and 3D culture systems for adipogenesis we found that both systems successfully model adipogensis, however 3D culture systems were more robust, providing the mechanical structure required to contain the large, fragile adipocytes that were lost in 2D perfused culture systems. 3D perfusion also stimulated greater lipogenesis and lipolysis and resulted in decreased secretion of LDH compared to 2D perfusion. Regardless of culture configuration (2D or 3D) greater glycerol was secreted with the increased nutritional supply provided by perfusion of fresh media. These results are promising for adipose tissue engineering applications including long term cultures for studying disease mechanisms and regenerative approaches, where both acute (days to weeks) and chronic (weeks to months) cultivation are critical for useful insight. PMID:25843606

  2. Long Term Changes in the Polar Vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2016-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented. The unusual meteorological conditions of the 2015 south polar vortex and the 2010/11 and 2015/16 north polar vortices will be compared to other recent years.

  3. Long-Term Care Policy: Singapore's Experience.

    PubMed

    Chin, Chee Wei Winston; Phua, Kai-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Singapore, like many developed countries, is facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population and the increasing need to provide long-term care (LTC) services for elderly in the community. The Singapore government's philosophy on care for the elderly is that the family should be the first line of support, and it has relied on voluntary welfare organizations (VWOs) or charities for the bulk of LTC service provision. For LTC financing, it has emphasized the principles of co-payment and targeting of state support to the low-income population through means-tested government subsidies. It has also instituted ElderShield, a national severe disability insurance scheme. This paper discusses some of the challenges facing LTC policy in Singapore, particularly the presence of perverse financial incentives for hospitalization, the pitfalls of over-reliance on VWOs, and the challenges facing informal family caregivers. It discusses the role of private LTC insurance in LTC financing, bearing in mind demand- and supply-side failures that have plagued the private LTC insurance market. It suggests the need for more standardized needs assessment and portable LTC benefits, with reference to the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, and also discusses the need to provide more support to informal family caregivers. PMID:26808468

  4. Long term changes in the polar vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2015-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented.

  5. Long-term intracranial pressure monitoring.

    PubMed

    de Jong, D A; Maas, A I; den Ouden, A H; de Lange, S A

    Continuous or intermittent measurement of intracranial pressure (ICP) is important in patients at risk for raised ICP. Indications exist for short- and long-term measurements. The various methods used for short-term monitoring are discussed with their relative advantages and disadvantages. For long-term measurements of ICP use of a completely implantable telemetric epidural pressure transducer is indicated. No such device is commercially available. We have developed an inexpensive passive telemetric transducer for this purpose. Results obtained up till now have demonstrated its reliability for measurements of two to three months duration. The life span of the device is limited by degrading of the epoxy utilized for sealing of the titanium pressure sensing part to the radiolucent ceramic cap of the transducer, causing leakage of water into the transducer and false low measurements. Because of these problems new hermetic sealing techniques were tested. Both active metal brazing and glass bonding yielded good results and hermetic sealing could be obtained. The metal to ceramic bonding presented is generally applicable within the design of implants. Besides the technical progress reported, the experience with clinical use in 12 patients is presented. PMID:6674738

  6. Blood glucose concentration for predicting poor outcomes in patients with and without impaired glucose metabolism undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery – long-term observational study

    PubMed Central

    Majstrak, Franciszek; Opolski, Grzegorz; Filipiak, Krzysztof J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Strict glucose control is an everyday practice in the perioperative period. Elevated glucose level has a deleterious impact on clinical results, but a therapeutic target has not been stated yet. Aim To determine a glucose concentration range affecting long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Material and methods This study is a retrospective evaluation of consecutive patients treated in a university hospital in Poland from 2004 to 2008. Patients were divided into 2 groups: an impaired glucose metabolism group (IGM) if they had 1) known DM or 2) perioperative hyperglycaemia defined as ≥ 200 mg/dl; and a non-IGM group. The end point (EP) was all-cause mortality. Results One thousand two hundred and eleven patients were covered by the analysis. The observation time was from 01.01.2004 until 01.08.2012. Patients who had maximal glucose concentrations < 242 mg/dl had the lowest mortality risk (EP in 21.1%); a higher risk was noted in the group with glucose concentrations 242–324 mg/dl (EP in 30.8%); and a very high risk was found for the group where glucose concentration was > 324 mg/dl (EP in 44.2%) (p = 0.041). Patients with IGM had a shorter survival at the end of the study (p < 0.001). The longest survival was observed in patients whose maximal glucose level was ≤ 242 mg/dl (p < 0.001) and the minimal glucose concentration was in the range 61–110 mg/dl (p < 0.001). Conclusions Tight glucose concentration control should be performed irrespective of a diabetes diagnosis and proper treatment introduced when necessary. Maximal glucose concentration should be kept < 242 mg/dl, while the minimum should be in the range 60–110 mg/dl. PMID:27625687

  7. [Long-term outcome of surgically treated teratology of Fallot].

    PubMed

    Ben Khalfallah, Ali; Annabi, N; Ousji, Monia

    2004-01-01

    Tetralogy of Fallot is the most common cyanotic congenital heart disease. The surgical treatment that is palliative or complete repair has allowed to transform the preview of this heart disorder. We suggests to study the long term outcome in patients undergoing surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot, by emphasizing the quality of their lives, the complications, as well as the mortality. Ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death after repair of tetralogy of Fallot are devastating complications in adults survivors and their prediction remains difficult. PMID:15127696

  8. Long-term U. S. energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Friesen, G.

    1984-01-01

    Each year Chase Econometrics offers its clients a brief summary of the assumptions underlying the long-term energy forecast for the U.S. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they choose to compare forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Particular emphasis is placed on Scenario B, which is the mid-range reference case. As the introduction to the supplement emphasizes, the NEPP projections should not be considered a statement of the policy goals of the Reagan Administration. They represent an analysis of the possible evolution of U.S. energy markets, given current information and existing policies. The purpose of providing Scenario B as a reference case as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand.

  9. Long-term control of root growth

    DOEpatents

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

  10. Long-term control of root growth

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, F.G.; Cataldo, D.A.; Cline, J.F.; Skiens, W.E.

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin. 7 figs.

  11. Long term thermoelectric module testing system.

    PubMed

    D'Angelo, Jonathan; Hogan, Timothy

    2009-10-01

    Thermoelectric generators can be used for converting waste heat into electric power. Significant interest in developing new materials in recent years has led to the discovery of several promising thermoelectrics, however, there can be considerable challenges in developing the materials into working devices. Testing and feedback is needed at each step to gain valuable information for identification of difficulties, quality of the materials and modules, repeatability in fabrication, and longevity of the devices. This paper describes a long-term module testing system for monitoring the output power of a module over extended testing times. To evaluate the system, we have tested commercially available thermoelectric modules over a one month time period. PMID:19895086

  12. Advanced long term cryogenic storage systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Norman S.

    1987-01-01

    Long term, cryogenic fluid storage facilities will be required to support future space programs such as the space-based Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), Telescopes, and Laser Systems. An orbital liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen storage system with an initial capacity of approximately 200,000 lb will be required. The storage facility tank design must have the capability of fluid acquisition in microgravity and limit cryogen boiloff due to environmental heating. Cryogenic boiloff management features, minimizing Earth-to-orbit transportation costs, will include advanced thick multilayer insulation/integrated vapor cooled shield concepts, low conductance support structures, and refrigeration/reliquefaction systems. Contracted study efforts are under way to develop storage system designs, technology plans, test article hardware designs, and develop plans for ground/flight testing.

  13. Withdrawal from long-term benzodiazepine treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Petursson, H; Lader, M H

    1981-01-01

    Long-term, normal-dose benzodiazepine treatment was discontinued in 16 patients who were suspected of being dependent on their medication. The withdrawal was gradual, placebo-controlled, and double-blind. All the patients experienced some form of withdrawal reaction, which ranged from anxiety and dysphoria to moderate affective and perceptual changes. Symptom ratings rose as the drugs were discontinued, but usually subsided to prewithdrawal levels over the next two to four weeks. Other features of the withdrawal included disturbance of sleep and appetite and noticeable weight loss. Electroencephalography showed appreciable reduction in fast-wave activity as the drugs were withdrawn, and an improvement in psychological performance was recorded by the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Because of the risk of dependence on benzodiazepines these agents should probably not be given as regular daily treatment for chronic anxiety. PMID:6114776

  14. Long term performance of radon mitigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Prill, R.; Fisk, W.J.

    2002-03-01

    Researchers installed radon mitigation systems in 12 houses in Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho during the heating season 1985--1986 and continued to monitor indoor radon quarterly and annually for ten years. The mitigation systems included active sub-slab ventilation, basement over-pressurization, and crawlspace isolation and ventilation. The occupants reported various operational problems with these early mitigation systems. The long-term radon measurements were essential to track the effectiveness of the mitigation systems over time. All 12 homes were visited during the second year of the study, while a second set 5 homes was visited during the fifth year to determine the cause(s) of increased radon in the homes. During these visits, the mitigation systems were inspected and measurements of system performance were made. Maintenance and modifications were performed to improve system performance in these homes.

  15. Managing Records for the Long Term - 12363

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, John V.; Gueretta, Jeanie

    2012-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for managing vast amounts of information documenting historical and current operations. This information is critical to the operations of the DOE Office of Legacy Management. Managing legacy records and information is challenging in terms of accessibility and changing technology. The Office of Legacy Management is meeting these challenges by making records and information management an organizational priority. The Office of Legacy Management mission is to manage DOE post-closure responsibilities at former Cold War weapons sites to ensure the future protection of human health and the environment. These responsibilities include environmental stewardship and long-term preservation and management of operational and environmental cleanup records associated with each site. A primary organizational goal for the Office of Legacy Management is to 'Preserve, Protect, and Share Records and Information'. Managing records for long-term preservation is an important responsibility. Adequate and dedicated resources and management support are required to perform this responsibility successfully. Records tell the story of an organization and may be required to defend an organization in court, provide historical information, identify lessons learned, or provide valuable information for researchers. Loss of records or the inability to retrieve records because of poor records management processes can have serious consequences and even lead to an organisation's downfall. Organizations must invest time and resources to establish a good records management program because of its significance to the organization as a whole. The Office of Legacy Management will continue to research and apply innovative ways of doing business to ensure that the organization stays at the forefront of effective records and information management. DOE is committed to preserving records that document our nation's Cold War legacy, and the Office of Legacy

  16. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  17. Mechanical Interferometry Imaging for Creep Modeling of the Cornea

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Lawrence; Reed, Jason; Gimzewski, James K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. A novel nanoindentation technique was used to biomechanically characterize each of three main layers of the cornea by using Hertzian viscoelastic formulation of creep, the deformation resulting from sustained-force application. Methods. The nanoindentation method known as mechanical interferometry imaging (MII) with <1-nm displacement precision was used to observe indentation of bovine corneal epithelium, endothelium, and stroma by a spherical ferrous probe in a calibrated magnetic field. For each specimen, creep testing was performed using two different forces for 200 seconds. Measurements for single force were used to build a quantitative Hertzian model that was then used to predict creep behavior for another imposed force. Results. For all three layers, displacement measurements were highly repeatable and were well predicted by Hertzian models. Although short- and long-term stiffnesses of the endothelium were highest of the three layers at 339.2 and 20.2 kPa, respectively, both stromal stiffnesses were lowest at 100.4 and 3.6 kPa, respectively. Stiffnesses for the epithelium were intermediate at 264.6 and 12.2 kPa, respectively. Conclusions. Precise, repeatable measurements of corneal creep behavior can be conveniently obtained using MII at mechanical scale as small as one cell thickness. When interpreted in analytical context of Hertzian viscoelasticity, MII technique proved to be a powerful tool for biomechanical characterization of time-dependent biomechanics of corneal regions. PMID:21969299

  18. The Role of Eta Phase Formation on the Creep Strength and Ductility of INCONEL Alloy 740 t 1023 k (750 Degrees C)

    SciTech Connect

    Shingledecker, John P; Pharr, George Mathews

    2012-01-01

    INCONEL alloy 740 is an age-hardenable nickel-based superalloy proposed for advanced ultrasupercritical steam boiler applications operating at high stress and long times above 973 K (700 C), where creep will be the dominate deformation mode. During high-temperature exposure, the alloy can form eta phase platelets that many have suggested may be detrimental to creep strength and ductility. In this study, creep-rupture tests were conducted on smooth and notched bars of INCONEL alloy 740 at 1023 K (750 C) for times up to 20,000 hours. Examination of the creep-rupture life, creep ductility, failure modes, and microstructure by quantitative electron microscopy shows that a small amount of eta phase does not diminish the creep performance. Applied stress appears to have a minor effect on the precipitation of the eta phase but not its growth rate. Based on the observation that the microstructure after 20,000 hours of creep exposure has reached equilibrium in comparison to thermodynamic calculations, it is concluded that 20,000 hour creep tests are adequate for prediction of long-term creep performance.

  19. Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a c