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Sample records for predicting long-term creep

  1. Predictability of long-term creep and rupture in a nozzle-to-sphere vessel model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corum, J. M.; Battiste, R. L.

    The results of a long-term, high-temperature, failure test of a pressurized nozzle-to-spherical-shell model made of a well-characterized heat of type 304 stainless steel are presented and compared with inelastic deformation and failure predictions. The model, which was tested at 593 C (1100 F), was instrumented with capacitive strain gages in key locations. In addition to recording strains, the surface of the model in the junction region was periodically examined throughout the test for the formation and progression of the creep cracking that ultimately led to a leakage failure. The inelastic analysis predictions were based on guidelines developed and used for design of elevated-temperature nuclear components. Likewise, the failure model used was that upon which the ASME elevated-temperature Code Case N-47 for nuclear components is based. Thus, the reasonable agreement observed between experimental results and predictions adds confidence in the overall design methodology for elevated-temperature components.

  2. Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

    2012-02-01

    The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

  3. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  4. Prediction of the long-term creep compliance of general composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    An accelerated viscoelastic characterization procedure for use with polymer-based composite materials is presented which employs short term test data obtained using unidirectional specimens to predict the long term viscoelastic behavior of general composite laminates. This procedure is here illustrated using the Schapery (1966, 1969) nonlinear theory as the required viscoelastic constitutive model, as well as classical lamination theory for the lamination scheme. The technique is applied to T300/5208 graphite/epoxy.

  5. Accelerated characterization for long-term creep behavior of polymer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Rongguo; Chen, Chaozhong; Li, Qifu; Luo, Xiyan

    2008-11-01

    Based on the observation that high stress results in increasing creep rate of polymeric material, which is analogous to the time-temperature equivalence, where high temperature accelerates the process of creep or relaxation of polymer, the time-stress equivalence is investigated. The changes of intrinsic time in polymer induced by temperature and stress are studied using the free volume theory, and a clock model based on the time-temperature and time-stress equivalence is constructed to predict the long-term creep behavior of polymer. Polypropylene is used for this work. The specimens with shape of dumbbell are formed via injection molding. The short-term creep tests under various stress levels are carried out at ambient temperature. The creep strains of specimens are modeled according to the concept of time-stress equivalence, and the corresponding stress shift factors are calculated. A master creep curve is built by the clock model. The result indicates that the time-stress superposition principle provides an accelerated characterization method in the laboratory. Finally, the time-dependent axial elongations at sustained stress levels, whose values are close to the tensile strength of polypropylene, are measured. The three phases of creep, i.e., the transient, steady state and accelerated creep phases, are studied, and the application and limitation of the time-stress superposition principle are discussed.

  6. Long term property prediction of polyethylene nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaito, Ali Al-Abed

    properties of the nanocomposites was analyzed by examining tensile and creep-recovery behavior of the films at temperatures in the range of 25 to -100°C. Within the measured temperature range, the materials showed a nonlinear temperature dependent response. The time-temperature superposition principle was successfully used to predict the long term behavior of LLDPE nanocomposites.

  7. Influence of long- term aging and superimposed creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gope, N.; Mukherjee, T.; Sarma, D. S.

    1992-08-01

    In an effort to understand the effects of long-term aging at high temperatures and those of the superimposed creep stresses on the microstructural variations in a 0.50Cr-0.50Mo-0.25V steel, the shoulder and gage portions of the specimens subjected to stress rupture tests at 500 °C and 540 °C have been studied by transmission electron microscopy. The optical microstructure, in the normalized and tempered condition, consists of about 95 pct ferrite with the remainder bainite. The ferrite has an extremely fine precipitation of vanadium carbide (VC) as interphase precipitate as well as in random distribution. In the bainitic area, M3C is present in the globular as well as plate-like morphology. Specimens ruptured at 500 °C and 540 °C were selected for transmission electron microscopic study. Both the interphase precipitates and randomly distrib- uted precipitates of VC coarsen considerably due to prolonged exposure at elevated tempera- tures, and ultimately fine M2C platelets nucleate and grow on either side of these precipitates, resulting in the formation of the so-called H-carbides. The superimposed creep stress has a marginal effect on the coarsening kinetics of VC but has enhanced its precipitation along dis- locations and has promoted the formation of H-carbides.

  8. Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreher, P. E.; Lyons, A. T.

    1990-10-01

    Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.

  9. Barrier and long term creep properties of polymer nanocomposites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranade, Ajit

    The barrier properties and long term strength retention of polymers are of significant importance in a number of applications. Enhanced lifetime food packaging, substrates for OLED based flexible displays and long duration scientific balloons are among them. Higher material requirements in these applications drive the need for an accurate measurement system. Therefore, a new system was engineered with enhanced sensitivity and accuracy. Permeability of polymers is affected by permeant solubility and diffusion. One effort to decrease diffusion rates is via increasing the transport path length. We explore this through dispersion of layered silicates into polymers. Layered silicates with effective aspect ratio of 1000:1 have shown promise in improving the barrier and mechanical properties of polymers. The surface of these inorganic silicates was modified with surfactants to improve the interaction with organic polymers. The micro and nanoscale dispersion of the layered silicates was probed using optical and transmission microscopy as well as x-ray diffraction. Thermal transitions were analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry. Mechanical and permeability measurements were correlated to the dispersion and increased density. The essential structure-property relationships were established by comparing semicrystalline and amorphous polymers. Semicrystalline polymers selected were nylon-6 and polyethylene terephthalate. The amorphous polymer was polyethylene terphthalate-glycol. Densification due to the layered silicate in both semicrystalline and amorphous polymers was associated with significant impact on barrier and long term creep behavior. The inferences were confirmed by investigating a semi-crystalline polymer---polyethylene---above and below the glass transition. The results show that the layered silicate influences the amorphous segments in polymers and barrier properties are affected by synergistic influences of densification and uniform dispersion of the

  10. Contribution of recovery mechanisms of microstructure during long-term creep of Gr.91 steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghassemi-Armaki, H.; Chen, R. P.; Maruyama, K.; Igarashi, M.

    2013-02-01

    Creep rupture life and microstructural degradation have been studied in two heats of Gr.91 steels. The coarsening of subgrains and precipitates, mainly M23C6 and MX, has been evaluated during static aging and creep. Hardness of head (static aging) and gauge (creep) portions of crept samples were measured to know their relation with microstructural degradation during long-term exposure. The correlation between subgrain size and spacing of precipitates and hardness has been equated. As an example, there is a close correlation between hardness value and inverse subgrains size in Gr.91 steels, regardless of aging or creep conditions. The appearance of three recovery mechanisms was found during long-term creep, namely: strain-induced recovery, pure static recovery and strain-assisted static recovery. By equated correlations between subgrain size, precipitates and hardness, the contribution of three recovery mechanisms to subgrain coarsening and hardness drop were calculated for two creep conditions at 700 °C in long-term creep region, where breakdown of creep strength has happen. The calculated data accord well with experimental data obtained from aged and crept samples. The contribution of static recovery to the subgrain coarsening and consequent hardness drop during long-term creep increases with increasing creep time. The significant contribution of both static recovery mechanisms can result in the breakdown of creep strength in long-term creep region.

  11. Long-Term Creep and Creep Rupture Behavior of Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Mach, A.; Jeelani, S.; Verrilli, Michael J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tensile creep behavior of SiC/SiNC ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures and at various stress levels have been investigated for turbine engine applications. The objective of this research is to present creep behavior of SiC/SiCN composites at stress levels above and below the monotonic proportional limit strength and predict the life at creep rupture conditions. Tensile creep-rupture tests were performed on an Instron 8502 servohydraulic testing machine at constant load conditions up to a temperature limit of 1000 C. Individual creep curves indicate three stages such as primary, secondary, and tertiary. The creep rate increased linearly at an early stage and then gradually became exponential at higher strains. The stress exponent and activation energy were also obtained at 700 and 1000 C. The specimen lifetime was observed to be 55 hrs at 121 MPa and at 700 C. The life span reduced to 35 hrs at 143 MPa and at 1000 C. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed significant changes in the crystalline phases and creep damage development. Creep failures were accompanied by extensive fiber pullout, matrix cracking, and debonding along with fiber fracture. The creep data was applied to Time-Temperature-Stress superposition model and the Manson-Haferd parametric model for long-time life prediction.

  12. Prediction of long-term failure in Kevlar 49 composites

    SciTech Connect

    Gerstle, F.P. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Creep rupture data in Kevlar 49 epoxy usually exhibit considerable scatter: the coefficient of variation (CV) about the mean failure time at a given stress exceeds 100%. Quasi-static strength data, in contrast, shows little scatter: <4% CV for pressure vessels and <10% for impregnated strands. In this paper analysis of existing creep rupture data on Kevlar epoxy vessels at four storage pressures has produced an interesting and useful result. It was found that a significant portion of the scatter in failure times for pressure vessels is due to spool-to-spool variation in the eight spools of Kevlar fibers used to wind the vessels. The order rank of mean times to failure was consistent over a pressure range from 3400 to 4300 psi, 68 to 86% of short term burst. Also, the coefficient of variation about the mean failure time for each spool was less than that for the total sample. The statistical inference that the sample is nonhomogeneous was supported by a nonparametric check using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and by a parametric analysis of variance. The order rank found in long-term tests did not unequivocally agree with static strength ranks; several spool sets were distinctly high or low. The implication is that, while static strengths are not valid predictors of long-term behavior, short term creep rupture tests at high stress definitely are. The material difference which causes the spool-to-spool variations has not yet been identified for all eight spools. However, it appears that Kevlar behavior at lower pressures may be predicted through the use of curves fitted to the data for each spool. A power law relating failure time to pressure, t = t/sub 0/(p/p/sub 0/)/sup m/, was found to fit the data reasonably well. The implication is that, both in composite vessel design and in creep rupture experiments, the pressure (or stress) level be carefully controlled.

  13. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. PMID:11607658

  14. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  15. Long-term lifetime prediction for RF-MEMS switches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulloni, V.; Barbato, M.; Meneghesso, G.

    2016-07-01

    Time to failure estimations of RF-MEMS (radio-frequency microelectromechanical system) switches under prolonged actuation is particularly interesting for satellite applications, where the devices have to retain their functionality for years. At present, a well-assessed methodology to predict RF-MEMS lifetime is still lacking, probably because, in the case of MEMS, failure may originate from either electrical or mechanical sources. Temperature is the most common failure accelerating factor, but it accelerates all failure mechanisms at the same time. In this paper, we take into account the effect of temperature on three different failure mechanisms, namely charge trapping, mechanical creep, and contact degradation. Short-term and long-term continuous actuation measurements for an ohmic clamped–clamped switch are reported and analyzed, showing that failure is strongly accelerated by temperature in the range of temperatures investigated. The maximum temperature exploitable is, however, quite low, around 75 °C, because of structural modifications due to internal stress variations and buckling. Based on the experimental data, a prediction model is presented and discussed. While failure at 55 °C has been measured after a few days, the extrapolated lifetimes at 25 °C are around five years. Contact deterioration has been found to be the reason of failure, but the switch fails only when the spring constant has been sufficiently lowered by mechanical creep.

  16. Long-term evolution is surprisingly predictable in lattice proteins

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, Michael E.; Moudgil, Arnav; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    It has long been debated whether natural selection acts primarily upon individual organisms, or whether it also commonly acts upon higher-level entities such as lineages. Two arguments against the effectiveness of long-term selection on lineages have been (i) that long-term evolutionary outcomes will not be sufficiently predictable to support a meaningful long-term fitness and (ii) that short-term selection on organisms will almost always overpower long-term selection. Here, we use a computational model of protein folding and binding called ‘lattice proteins’. We quantify the long-term evolutionary success of lineages with two metrics called the k-fitness and k-survivability. We show that long-term outcomes are surprisingly predictable in this model: only a small fraction of the possible outcomes are ever realized in multiple replicates. Furthermore, the long-term fitness of a lineage depends only partly on its short-term fitness; other factors are also important, including the ‘evolvability’ of a lineage—its capacity to produce adaptive variation. In a system with a distinct short-term and long-term fitness, evolution need not be ‘short-sighted’: lineages may be selected for their long-term properties, sometimes in opposition to short-term selection. Similar evolutionary basins of attraction have been observed in vivo, suggesting that natural biological lineages will also have a predictive long-term fitness. PMID:23466559

  17. Long term prediction of flood occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; José Polo, María

    2016-05-01

    How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

  18. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  19. Revised long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Galehouse, Jon S.

    1997-01-01

    Although the Hayward fault is a source of major earthquakes, it also creeps or slips aseismically, and has done so steadily for several decades (certainly since 1921 and probably since 1869). Most of the fault creeps between 3 and 6 mm/yr, except for a 4- to 6-km-long segment near its south end that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. We present results of our recent surveys to recover angles and deflection lines established across the fault in the 1960s and 1970s, but unmonitored since. We have added data from more offset cultural features to the long-term creep rate data set and made substantial improvements to the analytical method used to compute offsets. The revised creep rate values improve our knowledge of spatial and temporal variation along the fault. The more accurate revised data has reduced the estimate of the average creep rate along most of the fault from 5.1 mm/yr to 4.6 mm/yr. Creep rates in the 9 mm/yr section near the south end have remained the same.

  20. Effect of Creep of Ferritic Interconnect on Long-Term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Stacks

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-08-01

    High-temperature ferritic alloys are potential candidates as interconnect (IC) materials and spacers due to their low cost and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) compatibility with other components for most of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) . However, creep deformation becomes relevant for a material when the operating temperature exceeds or even is less than half of its melting temperature (in degrees of Kelvin). The operating temperatures for most of the SOFCs under development are around 1,073 K. With around 1,800 K of the melting temperature for most stainless steel, possible creep deformation of ferritic IC under the typical cell operating temperature should not be neglected. In this paper, the effects of IC creep behavior on stack geometry change and the stress redistribution of different cell components are predicted and summarized. The goal of the study is to investigate the performance of the fuel cell stack by obtaining the changes in fuel- and air-channel geometry due to creep of the ferritic stainless steel IC, therefore indicating possible changes in SOFC performance under long-term operations. The ferritic IC creep model was incorporated into software SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC, and finite element analyses were performed to quantify the deformed configuration of the SOFC stack under the long-term steady-state operating temperature. It was found that the creep behavior of the ferritic stainless steel IC contributes to narrowing of both the fuel- and the air-flow channels. In addition, stress re-distribution of the cell components suggests the need for a compliant sealing material that also relaxes at operating temperature.

  1. Is Current Hydrogeologic Research Addressing Long-TermPredictions?

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2004-09-10

    Hydrogeology is a field closely related to the needs of society. Many problems of current national and local interest require predictions of hydrogeological system behavior, and, in a number of important cases, the period of prediction is tens to hundreds of thousands of years. It is argued that the demand for such long-term hydrogeological predictions casts a new light on the future needs of hydrogeological research. Key scientific issues are no longer concerned only with simple processes or narrowly focused modeling or testing methods, but also with assessment of prediction uncertainties and confidence, couplings among multiple physico-chemical processes occurring simultaneously at a site, and the interplay between site characterization and predictive modeling. These considerations also have significant implications for hydrogeological education. With this view, it is asserted that hydrogeological directions and education need to be reexamined and possibly refocused to address specific needs for long-term predictions.

  2. Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

    1994-01-01

    For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

  3. Long-term monitoring of creep rate along the Hayward fault and evidence for a lasting creep response to 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.; Simpson, R.W.

    2001-01-01

    We present results from over 30 yr of precise surveys of creep along the Hayward fault. Along most of the fault, spatial variability in long-term creep rates is well determined by these data and can help constrain 3D-models of the depth of the creeping zone. However, creep at the south end of the fault stopped completely for more than 6 years after the M7 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (LPEQ), perhaps delayed by stress drop imposed by this event. With a decade of detailed data before LPEQ and a decade after it, we report that creep response to that event does indeed indicate the expected deficit in creep.

  4. Long-term deflections of reinforced concrete elements: accuracy analysis of predictions by different methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gribniak, Viktor; Bacinskas, Darius; Kacianauskas, Rimantas; Kaklauskas, Gintaris; Torres, Lluis

    2013-08-01

    Long-term deflection response of reinforced concrete flexural members is influenced by the interaction of complex physical phenomena, such as concrete creep, shrinkage and cracking, which makes their prediction difficult. A number of approaches are proposed by design codes with different degrees of simplification and accuracy. This paper statistically investigates accuracy of long-term deflection predictions made by some of the most widely used design codes ( Eurocode 2, ACI 318, ACI 435, and the new Russian code SP 52-101) and a numerical technique proposed by the authors. The accuracy is analyzed using test data of 322 reinforced concrete members from 27 test programs reported in the literature. The predictions of each technique are discussed, and a comparative analysis is made showing the influence of different parameters, such as sustained loading duration, compressive strength of concrete, loading intensity and reinforcement ratio, on the prediction accuracy.

  5. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, Chen

    2015-01-01

    We report here a constitutive model for predicting long-term creep strain evolution in ’ strengthened Ni-base superalloys. Dislocation climb-bypassing ’, typical in intermediate ’ volume fraction (~20%) alloys, is considered as the primary deformation mechanism. Dislocation shearing ’ to anti-phase boundary (APB) faults and diffusional creep are also considered for high-stress and high-temperature low-stress conditions, respectively. Additional damage mechanism is taken into account for rapid increase in tertiary creep strain. The model has been applied to Alloy 282, and calibrated in a temperature range of 1375-1450˚F, and stress range of 15-45ksi. The model parameters and a MATLAB code are provided. This report is prepared by Monica Soare and Chen Shen at GE Global Research. Technical discussions with Dr. Vito Cedro are greatly appreciated. This work was supported by DOE program DE-FE0005859

  6. The long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cefola, P. J.; Long, A. C.; Holloway, G., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    Survey of averaging and multirevolution methods for long-term orbit prediction. A technical approach with the following features is recommended: (1) averaged variation-of-parameter equations, (2) analytical expressions for oblateness and third-body effects, (3) definite integrals for atmospheric drag and lunar effects (for long-period orbits), (4) nonsingular equinoctial element formulation, (5) multistep numerical integration processes, and (6) precise osculating-to-mean element transformation. Several orbital predictions illustrate the contribution of this technical approach to overall accuracy and efficiency. Future development of the analytical averaging method in nonsingular coordinates by automated manipulation of literal series is discussed.

  7. CREEP-2: Long-term time-dependent rock deformation in a deep-sea observatory.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boon, Steve; Meredith, Philip; Heap, Michael; Berenzoli, Laura; Favali, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    Earthquake rupture and volcanic eruptions are the most spectacular manifestations of dynamic failure of a critically stressed crust. But these are actually rather rare events, and most of the crust spends most of its time in a highly-stressed but sub-critical state. Below a few hundred metres, the crust is saturated, and water-rock chemical reactions lead to time-dependent deformation that allows rocks to fail over extended periods of time at stresses far below their short-term strength by the mechanism of stress corrosion crack growth. This process is highly non-linear and a change in applied stress of around 5% can lead to a change in the time-to-failure of more than an order of magnitude. Theoretical calculations based on reaction rate theory suggest that such cracking may occur down to stresses as low as 20% of the rock strength, implying that time-dependent cracking will be an important deformation mechanism over geological time and at typical tectonic strain rates. A number of theoretical models have been proposed to explain this behaviour. However, it is currently not possible to discriminate between these competing models due to the relatively narrow bandwidth of strain rates that are practicably achievable in conventional laboratory experiments. Ultra-long-term experiments at very low strain rates are clearly essential to address this problem. We have therefore used the stability of the deep-sea environment to conduct ultra-long-term experiments. At depth, the temperature remains constant throughout the year and water pressure also remains essentially constant, especially in the Ionian Sea where the tidal range is minimal. We have successfully conducted a pilot experiment (CREEP-1) in which we used the constant sea-water pressure at depth to provide both a constant confining pressure and a constant deforming stress for our rock samples. Building on that success, we are now building a multi-sample deformation observatory (CREEP-2) to be deployed at

  8. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    PubMed

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically. PMID:24365536

  9. Long-term weather predictability: Ural case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of the state-of-the-art long-term meteorological forecast (at the seasonal level) is still low. Here it is presented approach (RAMES method) realizing different forecasting methodology. It provides prediction horizon of up to 19-22 years under equal probabilities of determination of parameters in every analyzed period [1]. Basic statements of the method are the following. 1. Long-term forecast on the basis of numerical modeling of the global meteorological process is principally impossible. Extension of long-term prediction horizon could be obtained only by the revealing and using a periodicity of meteorological situations at one point of observation. 2. Conventional calendar is unsuitable for generalization of meteorological data and revealing of cyclicity of meteorological processes. RAMES method uses natural time intervals: one day, synodic month and one year. It was developed a set of special calendars using these natural periods and the Metonic cycle. 3. Long-term time series of meteorological data is not a uniform universal set, it is a sequence of 28 universal sets appropriately superseding each other in time. The specifics of the method are: 1. Usage of the original research toolkit consisting of - a set of calendars based on the Metonic cycle; - a set of charts (coordinate systems) for the construction of sequence diagrams (of daily variability of a meteorological parameter during the analyzed year; of daily variability of a meteorological parameter using long-term dynamical time series of periods-analogues; of monthly and yearly variability of accumulated value of meteorological parameter). 2. Identification and usage of new virtual meteorological objects having several degrees of generalization appropriately located in the used coordinate systems. 3. All calculations are integrated into the single technological scheme providing comparison and mutual verification of calculation results. During the prolonged testing in the Ural region, it was

  10. Long-term performance of ceramic matrix composites at elevated temperatures: Modelling of creep and creep rupture

    SciTech Connect

    Curtin, W.A.; Fabeny, B.; Ibnabdeljalil, M.; Iyengar, N.; Reifsnider, K.L.

    1996-07-31

    The models developed, contain explicit dependences on constituent material properties and their changes with time, so that composite performance can be predicted. Three critical processes in ceramic composites at elevated temperatures have been modeled: (1) creep deformation of composite vs stress and time-dependent creep of fibers and matrix, and failure of these components; (2) creep deformation of ``interface`` around broken fibers; and (3) lifetime of the composite under conditions of fiber strength loss over time at temperature. In (1), general evolution formulas are derived for relaxation time of matrix stresses and steady-state creep rate of composite; the model is tested against recent data on Ti-MMCs. Calculations on a composite of Hi-Nicalon fibers in a melt-infiltrated SiC matrix are presented. In (2), numerical simulations of composite failure were made to map out time-to-failure vs applied load for several sets of material parameters. In (3), simple approximate relations are obtained between fiber life and composite life that should be useful for fiber developers and testers. Strength degradation data on Hi-Nicalon fibers is used to assess composite lifetime vs fiber lifetime for Hi-Nicalon fiber composites.

  11. Prediction of long-term aging of cellular plastics

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Y.; Kokko, E.

    1995-09-01

    Chlorofluorocarbon(CFC)-based cellular plastics are facing the challenge of environmental protection. The cellular plastic industry has been looking for new blowing agents as alternatives for CFCs since the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987. The prediction of long-term thermal performance of newly developed cellular plastics thus becomes apparent. In this paper, the model ACP aging of cellular plastic is introduced. This model was originally developed for evaluating the thermal performance of carbon dioxide, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-22, n-Pentane, neo-Pentane and cyclo-Pentane. In comparison with short-term measurements, the ACP program now is able to predict the aging performance of cellular plastics is to combine the short-term measurements and model simulation. 21 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Effects of long-term thermal aging on the tensile and creep properties of commercially heat-treated alloy 718

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, M.K.

    1984-01-01

    Alloy 718 is a structure material widely used in elevated-temperature applications. In particular, it was extensively used in the design of the upper internal system and control rod drive line of the proposed Clinch River Breeder Reactor. Its popularity is due to several excellent behavioral features, including high creep and creep-rupture strength, good oxidation resistance, and exceptional high-cycle fatigue strength. However, alloy 718 is extremely complex, and its microstructure can be significantly modified by thermal treatment. The stability of the alloy in long-term elevated-temperature service is therefore a substantial concern in any such application. This report presents tensile and creep data obtained on three heats of alloy 718 after thermal aging for up to 27,000 h from 593 to 76{degree}C. Implications of these results in terms of long-term stability of the alloy are discussed. 5 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKinley, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

  14. Microstructural changes during long-term tension creep of two-phase {gamma}-titanium aluminide alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Oehring, M.; Appel, F.; Wagner, R.; Ennis, P.J.

    1997-12-31

    Long-term tension creep tests were performed on a Ti-48 at.% Al-2 at.% Cr alloy in order to assess the material behavior under the intended service conditions for structural parts in turbine engines. Deformation processes and microstructural changes were investigated by TEM on a specimen loaded to 140 MPa for 5,988 h at 700 C. At lamellar boundaries the emission of interfacial dislocations was observed and is thought to contribute significantly to the high primary creep rate of the material. Under the creep conditions gliding dislocations apparently become locked by the heterogeneous formation of precipitates along their cores. Lamellar interfaces revealed ledges which indicates that they migrate during creep.

  15. Long-term predictions of minewater geothermal systems heat resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harcout-Menou, Virginie; de ridder, fjo; laenen, ben; ferket, helga

    2014-05-01

    Abandoned underground mines usually flood due to the natural rise of the water table. In most cases the process is relatively slow giving the mine water time to equilibrate thermally with the the surrounding rock massif. Typical mine water temperature is too low to be used for direct heating, but is well suited to be combined with heat pumps. For example, heat extracted from the mine can be used during winter for space heating, while the process could be reversed during summer to provide space cooling. Altough not yet widely spread, the use of low temperature geothermal energy from abandoned mines has already been implemented in the Netherlands, Spain, USA, Germany and the UK. Reliable reservoir modelling is crucial to predict how geothermal minewater systems will react to predefined exploitation schemes and to define the energy potential and development strategy of a large-scale geothermal - cold/heat storage mine water systems. However, most numerical reservoir modelling software are developed for typical environments, such as porous media (a.o. many codes developed for petroleum reservoirs or groundwater formations) and cannot be applied to mine systems. Indeed, mines are atypical environments that encompass different types of flow, namely porous media flow, fracture flow and open pipe flow usually described with different modelling codes. Ideally, 3D models accounting for the subsurface geometry, geology, hydrogeology, thermal aspects and flooding history of the mine as well as long-term effects of heat extraction should be used. A new modelling approach is proposed here to predict the long-term behaviour of Minewater geothermal systems in a reactive and reliable manner. The simulation method integrates concepts for heat and mass transport through various media (e.g., back-filled areas, fractured rock, fault zones). As a base, the standard software EPANET2 (Rossman 1999; 2000) was used. Additional equations for describing heat flow through the mine (both

  16. Creep Behavior of Glass/Ceramic Sealant and its Effect on Long-term Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Koeppel, Brian J.; Stephens, Elizabeth V.; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2009-10-14

    The creep behavior of glass or glass-ceramic sealant materials used in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) becomes relevant under SOFC operating temperatures. In this paper, the creep of glass-ceramic sealants was experimentally examined, and a standard linear solid model was applied to capture the creep behavior of glass ceramic sealant materials developed for planar SOFCs at high temperatures. The parameters of this model were determined based on the creep test results. Furthermore, the creep model was incorporated into finite-element software programs SOFC-MP and Mentat-FC developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for multi-physics simulation of SOFCs. The effect of creep of glass ceramic sealant materials on the long-term performance of SOFC stacks was investigated by studying the stability of the flow channels and the stress redistribution in the glass seal and on the various interfaces of the glass seal with other layers. Finite element analyses were performed to quantify the stresses in various parts. The stresses in glass seals were released because of creep behavior during operations.

  17. Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery.

    PubMed

    Skeffington, Richard A; Cosby, B Jack; Whitehead, Paul G

    2016-10-15

    This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future. PMID:27304372

  18. Long-Term Creep of a Thin-Walled Inconel 718 Stirling Power-Convertor Heater Head Assessed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, Randy R.

    2002-01-01

    The Department of Energy and NASA have identified Stirling power convertors as candidate power supply systems for long-duration, deep-space science missions. A key element for qualifying the flight hardware is a long-term durability assessment for critical hot section components of the power convertor. One such critical component is the power convertor heater head. The heater head is a high-temperature pressure vessel that transfers heat to the working gas medium of the convertor, which is typically helium. An efficient heater head design is the result of balancing the divergent requirements of thin walls for increased heat transfer versus thick walls to lower the wall stresses and thus improve creep resistance and durability. In the current design, the heater head is fabricated from the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV). Although IN 718 is a mature alloy system (patented in 1962), there is little long-term (>50,000-hr) creep data available for thin-specimen geometries. Since thin-section properties tend to be inferior to thicker samples, it is necessary to generate creep data using specimens with the same geometry as the actual flight hardware. Therefore, one facet of the overall durability assessment program involves generating relatively short-term creep data using thin specimens at the design temperature of 649 C (1200 F).

  19. Sustainable Approach of Reusing Open Dumping Area by Predicting Long-Term Settlement of Waste Soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulaimi Shariffuddin, Ahmad; Irfah Mohd Pauzi, Nur; Hao, Goh Yu

    2016-03-01

    Sustainable approach towards an open dumping area can be determined by predicting the long-term settlement of waste soil. To predict the settlement that happens in closed open dumping area in Bukit Palong, Lukut in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, the Power Creep Function is used. The waste soil were collected to determine their basic geotechnical properties by doing sieve analysis, Atterberg Limit, consolidation, compaction and direct shear. From the geotechnical properties of the waste soil, the Power Creep Function are be used to determine the long-term settlement of the reused dumping area. There are three case studies and one of the parameters is M’ or reference compressibility that have the value from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa. There is also N’ or rate of compression that have value from 0.50 to 0.67. In Case 1, M’ and N’ are constant which are 5.8 × 10-5 kPa and 0.67 respectively. Case 2 have the value of M’ increased from 1.6 × 10-5 to 5.8 × 10-5 kPa with respect to age while N’ constant at 0.5. Lastly the Case 3 shows the M’ is constant at 1.6 × 10-5 kPa while the N’ is increased ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 with respect to age. The area will reach a stable condition which means the settlement has stabilized after 50 years. From the three case studies, the analysis show that the settlement does not exceed the allowable settlement which is 0.05m every year.

  20. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  1. Long-term creep of Hanford concrete at 250 deg F and 350 deg F

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillen, M.

    1980-10-01

    Test results described cover the creep behavior of Hanford concretes at elevated temperatures. Two each of 6 by 12 in. concrete cylinders were subjected to static compressive loads of 500 psi at 350 F and 1500 psi at 250 F and 350 F. Test cylinders were cast with materials and mix designs similar to those used in Hanford concrete structures. Effects of load and temperature on deformation of Hanford concrete are discussed. Increased static load reduced the amount of thermal strain when cylinders were heated above ambient. At 350 F, the magnitude of creep strain of cylinders increased with increased static load. At a test load of 1500 psi, magnitude of creep strain increased with increased temperature. Creep data were satisfactorily modeled with an expression of the form creep strain = A log10 (t) + B, where creep strain is in millionths, and t is time at test temperature, in days. Values for the coefficient, A, varied from 255.6 to 286.9. Magnitude of the constant B, ranged from 182.1 to 718.6.

  2. The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

    2013-01-01

    Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

  3. Long term prediction and the SSC (Superconducting Super Collider)

    SciTech Connect

    Talman, R.

    1990-09-01

    Successful operation of the Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) will depend on the stable circulation of particles for tens of millions of turns around the rings, in the presence of small nonlinear deflecting fields. One design challenge is to set specifications for the maximum allowable field imperfections of this sort, consistent with the required. stability. Another challenge is to plan for the inclusion of field compensating elements that will ameliorate the effects of errors. The tools'' available for projecting the long term stability are theoretical, both analytic and numerical, and experimental. These aspects are reviewed. 19 refs.

  4. Long-term Observation of Soil Creep Activity around a Landslide Scar

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rate of sediment infilling into landslide scars by soil creep is needed to estimate the timing of subsequent landslide activity at a particular site. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of its activity around the landslide scar is scarce. Additionally, there are few...

  5. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  6. A new indirect multi-step-ahead prediction model for a long-term hydrologic prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chun-Tian; Xie, Jing-Xin; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Layeghifard, Mehdi

    2008-10-01

    SummaryA dependable long-term hydrologic prediction is essential to planning, designing and management activities of water resources. A three-stage indirect multi-step-ahead prediction model, which combines dynamic spline interpolation into multilayer adaptive time-delay neural network (ATNN), is proposed in this study for the long term hydrologic prediction. In the first two stages, a group of spline interpolation and dynamic extraction units are utilized to amplify the effect of observations in order to decrease the errors accumulation and propagation caused by the previous prediction. In the last step, variable time delays and weights are dynamically regulated by ATNN and the output of ATNN can be obtained as a multi-step-ahead prediction. We use two examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. One example is the sunspots time series that is a well-known nonlinear and non-Gaussian benchmark time series and is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of nonlinear models. Another example is a case study of a long-term hydrologic prediction which uses the monthly discharges data from the Manwan Hydropower Plant in Yunnan Province of China. Application results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

  7. Long-term predictions relating to environment sensitive cracking

    SciTech Connect

    Parkins, R.N.

    1993-12-31

    Consideration is given to the environmental requirements of environment sensitive cracking (ESC) of ferritic steels, involving hydrogen-induced or dissolution-related mechanisms of cracking. Pitting, with associated local pH changes, may result in hydrogen-induced cracking of simple ferritic steels, as had been observed with high pressure gas pipelines in contact with ground waters, and may constitute a greater potential failure mechanism for waste containers than dissolution-related cracking with its requirement of relatively concentrate solutions. However, the stochastic nature of pit initiation, together with the distributions of crack nucleation and growth rates, suggest that a probabilistic, as opposed to a purely deterministic, approach will need to be applied to life prediction estimates for waste containers.

  8. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  9. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  10. Microcomputer programs for the evaluation of predictable long-term exposure.

    PubMed

    Re, M

    1985-07-01

    Some methods proposed for evaluation of predictable long-term exposure by statistical treatment of workshift exposure values are considered. Predictable long-term exposure is a useful parameter for risk assessment procedures, as it allows the evaluation of workplace hazards by taking into account interday variability of exposure to air contaminants. Statistical calculations required for evaluating predictable long-term exposure may be performed easily by hand-held programmable calculators. The programs reported here are for use with a Texas Instruments TI-59 hand-held programmable calculator equipped with a PC-100 C thermal printer. They are designed for users inexperienced in programming, since an interactive approach has been adopted that helps communication between user and computer. PMID:3880190

  11. The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

  12. Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

  13. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  14. Predicting agricultural management influence on long-term soil organic carbon dynamics: implications for biofuel production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations,...

  15. Long-Term Collision Risk Prediction for Low Earth Orbit Satellite Constellations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, R.; Stokes, P. H.; Wilkinson, J. E.; Swinerd, G. G.

    2000-07-01

    In the light of recent changes to planned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation designs and enhancements made to the DERA IDES model, we have conducted a new study on long-term debris environment evolution. This includes the collision interactions of constellation systems with the orbital debris environment over the next 50 years. In this new study, we use the IDES model to simulate long-term evolution in four 'business as usual' future traffic scenarios, which differ by the presence and absence of foreseen satellite constellation traffic and debris mitigation measures. The IDES model is capable of taking high spatial resolution snapshots of the debris flux environment at regular time intervals. By accessing these snapshots, the IDES model is able to predict the long-term variation of debris flux incident on a specific target orbit. This technique is harnessed to predict the average debris flux trends for a typical LEO constellation satellite. Furthermore, we estimate the average debris-induced satellite failure rates for a whole constellation system. Finally, we discuss our new findings on the long-term effects of constellations on the debris environment and vice versa.

  16. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  17. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Goldsmith, Yulia; Chan, Jacqueline; Iskandir, Marina; Gulkarov, Iosif; Tortolani, Anthony; Brener, Sorin J.; Sacchi, Terrence J.; Heitner, John F.

    2015-01-01

    Background The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF), independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery. Methods From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female) were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered <35% and <45%, respectively. Elective primary procedures include CABG (56%) and valve (44%). Thirty-day outcomes were perioperative complications, length of stay, cardiac re-hospitalizations and early mortaility; long-term (> 30 days) outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months. Findings Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25%) and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50%) (p<0.001). Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30%) and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59%) (p<0.001). Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05). Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03). Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization. Conclusion Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures. PMID:26197273

  18. Predictive Factors Affecting Long-Term Outcome of Unilateral Lateral Rectus Recession

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Hee Kyung; Kim, Mi-Jin; Hwang, Jeong-Min

    2015-01-01

    Background There are few long-term outcome reports of unilateral lateral rectus (LR) recession for exotropia including a large number of subjects. Previous reports on unilateral LR recession commonly show extremely low rates of initial overcorrection and large exodrifts after surgery suggesting that the surgical dose may be increased. However, little is known of the long-term outcome of a large unilateral LR recession for exotropia. Objectives To determine long-term outcomes and predictive factors of recurrence after a large unilateral LR recession in patients with exotropia. Data Extraction Retrospective analysis was performed on 92 patients aged 3 to 17 years who underwent 10 mm unilateral LR recession for exotropia of ≤ 25 prism diopters (Δ) with prism and alternate cover testing and were followed up for more than 2 years after surgery. Final success rates within 10Δ of exophoria/tropia and 5Δ of esophoria/tropia at distance in the primary position, improvement in stereopsis and the predictive factors for recurrence were evaluated. Results At 24 months after surgery, 54% of patients had ocular alignment meeting the defined criteria of success, 45% had recurrence and 1% had overcorrection. After a mean follow-up of 39 months, 36% showed success, 63% showed recurrence and 1% resulted in overcorrection. The average time of recurrence was 23.4±14.7 months (range, 1–60 months) and the rate of recurrence per person-year was 23% after unilateral LR recession. Predictive factors of recurrence were a larger preoperative near angle of deviation (>16Δ) and larger initial postoperative exodeviation (>5Δ) at distance. Conclusions Long-term outcome of unilateral LR recession for exotropia showed low success rates with high recurrence, thus should be reserved for patients with a small preoperative near angle of exodeviation. PMID:26418819

  19. Long-term rates and the depth extent of fault creep along the San Andreas Fault system in northern California from alinement arrays and GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.; McFarland, F. S.; Simpson, R. W.; Caskey, J.

    2013-12-01

    The dextral San Andreas Fault system (SAFS) in northern California comprises five branches that exhibit considerable variation in the amount and spatial extent of aseismic release or creep. We estimate the depth extent of creep with a forward elastic model using the algorithms of Okada (1992) and boundary value dislocation solutions for creep rate and depth of creeping patches. For purposes of analysis we label branches, from west to east: A (San Gregorio), B (San Andreas), C (Calaveras-Hayward-Rodgers Creek-Maacama), D (Northern Calaveras-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs) and E (Greenville. Since the 1960s alinement arrays have provided one of the most accurate means to estimate the long-term creep rate and these rates have been reasonably well determined for much of the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) southward. Over the past decade we have been installing alinement arrays along the more remote faults, especially northward of the SFBA, to monitor the extent of creep on branches C and D. We currently monitor about 80 such arrays throughout the northern SAFS. To analyze the depth extent of creep over the entire system, we model 30 fault sections on these five branches, delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We have removed any significant transient rate changes imposed by large regional earthquakes. We use crustal velocities determined for global-positioning station pairs of survey mode and continuous (SGPS, CGPS or mixed pairs) that are located near each fault to provide additional constraint on average creep rates. We estimate the mean depth of creep from the mean observed surface creep rate for each section and the rate uncertainty allows estimation of a depth uncertainty. Uncertainties are generally much higher where only five years or less of alinement array data are available, but in some cases the addition of CGPS or multiple SGPS station pairs has been essential for a more complete evaluation of

  20. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  1. Common Factors Predicting Long-term Changes in Multiple Health Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    BLISSMER, BRYAN; PROCHASKA, JAMES O.; VELICER, WAYNE F.; REDDING, COLLEEN A.; ROSSI, JOSEPH S.; GREENE, GEOFFREY W.; PAIVA, ANDREA; ROBBINS, MARK

    2010-01-01

    This study was designed to assess if there are consistent treatment, stage, severity, effort and demographic effects which predict long-term changes across the multiple behaviors of smoking, diet and sun exposure. A secondary data analysis integrated data from four studies on smoking cessation (N = 3927), three studies on diet (N = 4824) and four studies on sun exposure (N = 6465). Across all three behaviors, behavior change at 24 months was related to treatment, stage of change, problem severity and effort effects measured at baseline. There were no consistent demographic effects. Across multiple behaviors, long-term behavior changes are consistently related to four effects that are dynamic and open to change. Behavior changes were not consistently related to static demographic variables. Future intervention research can target the four effects to determine if breakthroughs can be produced in changing single and multiple behaviors. PMID:20207664

  2. Deficit in long-term synaptic plasticity is rescued by a computationally predicted stimulus protocol.

    PubMed

    Liu, Rong-Yu; Zhang, Yili; Baxter, Douglas A; Smolen, Paul; Cleary, Leonard J; Byrne, John H

    2013-04-17

    Mutations in the gene encoding CREB-binding protein (CBP) cause deficits in long-term plasticity, learning, and memory. Here, long-term synaptic facilitation (LTF) at Aplysia sensorimotor synapses in cell culture was used as a model system to investigate methods for overcoming deficits in LTF produced by a CBP knockdown. Injecting CBP-siRNA into individual sensory neurons reduced CBP levels and impaired LTF produced by a standard protocol of five 5-min pulses of serotonin (5-HT) delivered at 20 min interstimulus intervals. A computational model, which simulated molecular processes underlying LTF induction, predicted a rescue protocol of five pulses of 5-HT at non-uniform interstimulus intervals that overcame the consequences of reduced CBP and restored LTF. These results suggest that complementary empirical and computational studies can identify methods for ameliorating impairments of learning attributable to molecular lesions. PMID:23595752

  3. Review of uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions of space debris evolutionary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolado-Perez, J. C.; Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

    2015-08-01

    Since the launch of Sputnik-I in 1957, the amount of space debris in Earth's orbit has increased continuously. Historically, besides abandoned intact objects (spacecraft and orbital stages), the primary sources of space debris in Earth's orbit were (i) accidental and intentional break-ups which produced long-lasting debris and (ii) debris released intentionally during the operation of launch vehicle orbital stages and spacecraft. In the future, fragments generated by collisions are expected to become a significant source as well. In this context, and from a purely mathematical point of view, the orbital debris population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) should be intrinsically unstable, due to the physics of mutual collisions and the relative ineffectiveness of natural sink mechanisms above~700 km. Therefore, the real question should not be "if", but "when" the exponential growth of the space debris population is supposed to start. From a practical point of view, and in order to answer the previous question, since the end of the 1980's several sophisticated long-term debris evolutionary models have been developed. Unfortunately, the predictions performed with such models, in particular beyond a few decades, are affected by considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainty comes from a relative important number of variables that being either under the partial control or completely out of the control of modellers, introduce a variability on the long-term simulation of the space debris population which cannot be captured with standard Monte Carlo statistics. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss many of the uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions done with evolutionary models, in order to serve as a roadmap for the uncertainty and the statistical robustness analysis of the long-term evolution of the space debris population.

  4. Results of studying creep and long-term strength of metals at the Institute of Mechanics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University (To Yu. N. Rabotnov's Anniversary)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lokoshchenko, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Basic results of experimental and theoretical research of creep processes and long-term strength of metals obtained by researchers of the Institute of Mechanics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University are presented. These results further develop and refine the kinetic theory of creep and long-duration strength proposed by Yu. N. Rabotnov. Some problems arising in formulating various types of kinetic equations and describing experimental data for materials that can be considered as statically homogeneous materials (in studying the process of deformation and rupture of such materials, there is no need to study the evolution of individual cracks) are considered. The main specific features of metal creep models at constant and variable stresses, in uniaxial and complex stress states, and with allowance for one or two damage parameters are described. Criterial and kinetic approaches used to determine long-term strength under conditions of a complex stress state are considered. Methods of modeling the metal behavior in an aggressive medium are described. A possibility of using these models for solving engineering problems is demonstrated.

  5. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  6. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  7. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    SciTech Connect

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm/sup 2//s to 5.0E-3 cm/sup 2//s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm/sup 2//s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles.

  8. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    PubMed

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. PMID:26632992

  9. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  10. Predictions of long-term performance of granular iron permeable reactive barriers: field-scale evaluation.

    PubMed

    Jeen, Sung-Wook; Gillham, Robert W; Przepiora, Andrzej

    2011-04-01

    Long-term performance is a key consideration for the granular iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology because the economic benefit relies on sustainable operation for substantial periods of time. However, predictions on the long-term performance have been limited mainly because of the lack of reliable modeling tools. This study evaluated the predictive capability of a recently-developed reactive transport model at two field-scale PRBs, both having relatively high concentrations of dissolved carbonate in the native groundwater. The first site, with 8 years of available monitoring data, was a funnel-and-gate installation, with a low groundwater velocity through the gate (about 0.12 m d(-1)). The loss in iron reactivity caused by secondary mineral precipitation was small, maintaining relatively high removal rates for chlorinated organics. The simulated concentrations for most constituents in the groundwater were within the range of the monitoring data. The second site, with monitoring data available for 5 years, was a continuous wall PRB, designed for a groundwater velocity of 0.9 m d(-1). A comparison of measured and simulated aqueous concentrations suggested that the average groundwater velocity through the PRB could be lower than the design value by a factor of two or more. The distribution and amounts of carbonate minerals measured in core samples supported the decreased groundwater velocity used in the simulation. The generally good agreement between the simulated and measured aqueous and solid-phase data suggest that the model could be an effective tool for predicting long-term performance of granular iron PRBs, particularly in groundwater with high concentrations of carbonate. PMID:21237528

  11. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  12. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    PubMed

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. PMID:27449201

  13. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    PubMed

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. PMID:26192131

  14. Predicting long-term and short-term tidal flat morphodynamics using a dynamic equilibrium theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhan; Wang, Zheng Bing; Zitman, Tjerk J.; Stive, Marcel J. F.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

    2015-09-01

    Dynamic equilibrium theory is a fruitful concept, which we use to systematically explain the tidal flat morphodynamic response to tidal currents, wind waves, sediment supply, and other sedimentological drivers. This theory stems from a simple analytical model that derives the tide- or wave-dominated tidal flat morphology by assuming that morphological equilibrium is associated with uniform bed shear stress distribution. Many studies based on observation and process-based modeling tend to agree with this analytical model. However, a uniform bed shear stress rarely exists on actual or modeled tidal flats, and the analytical model cannot handle the spatially and temporally varying bed shear stress. In the present study, we develop a model based on the dynamic equilibrium theory and its core assumption. Different from the static analytical model, our model explicitly accounts for the spatiotemporal bed shear stress variations for tidal flat dynamic prediction. To test our model and the embedded theory, we apply the model for both long-term and short-term morphological predictions. The long-term modeling is evaluated qualitatively against previous process-based modeling. The short-term modeling is evaluated quantitatively against high-resolution bed-level monitoring data obtained from a tidal flat in Netherlands. The model results show good performances in both qualitative and quantitative tests, indicating the validity of the dynamic equilibrium theory. Thus, this model provides a valuable tool to enhance our understanding of the tidal flat morphodynamics and to apply the dynamic equilibrium theory for realistic morphological predictions.

  15. Prediction of creep of polymer concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Khristova, Yu.; Aniskevich, K.

    1995-11-01

    We studied the applicability of the phenomenological approach to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete consisting of polyester binder with diabase filler and diabase aggregate. We discovered that the principles of temperature-time analogy, of moisture-time analogy, and of temperature-moisture-time analogy are applicable to the description of the diagrams of short-time creep and to the prediction of long-time creep of polymer concrete at different temperatures and constant moisture content of the material.

  16. Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, M. S.; Nokes, D. J.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island. METHODS: The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel. FINDINGS: First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios. Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity. CONCLUSION: If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached. PMID:11477964

  17. Hybrid model for long-term prediction of the ionospheric global TEC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andonov, Borislav; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Pancheva, Dora

    2014-05-01

    A new hybrid model for long-term prediction of the global TEC was developed. It is based on the global empirical background TEC model constructed by Mukhtarov et al. (2013a,b) and the availability of regularly arriving fresh CODE TEC data. The cornerstone of the hybrid model consists of applying the method of autocorrelation prediction of the error and the respective correction of the background model with the predicted error. An important question is how the efficiency of the correction procedure depends on the given offset, i.e. the time distance between the dates for which the prediction is made to that with real data. It was found that the correction is really effective if the error prediction is made for a date with a distance up to 60 days from the date with real data. Then the RMSE decreases from 3.2 TECU (for the global background TEC model) to 2.76 TECU (for the hybrid model) which demonstrates the advantage of the presented in this paper hybrid model for long-term prediction with respect to the originally built background TEC model. REFERENCES Mukhtarov, P., Pancheva, D., Andonov, B., Pashova, L. Global TEC maps based on GNSS data: 1. Empirical background TEC model. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4609-4617, doi:10.1002/jgra.50413, 2013a. Mukhtarov, P., Pancheva, D., Andonov, B., Pashova, L. Global TEC maps based on GNSS data: 2. Model evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4594-4608, doi:10.1002/jgra.50412, 2013b.

  18. Using Genetic Variation to Predict and Extend Long-term Kidney Transplant Function.

    PubMed

    Simmonds, Matthew J

    2015-10-01

    Renal transplantation has transformed the life of patients with end-stage renal disease and other chronic kidney disorders by returning endogenous kidney function and enabling patients to cease dialysis. Several clinical indicators of graft outcome and long-term function have been established. Although rising creatinine levels and graft biopsy can be used to determine graft loss, identifying early predictors of graft function will not only improve our ability to predict long-term graft outcome but importantly provide a window of opportunity to therapeutically intervene to preserve graft function before graft failure has occurred. Since understanding the importance of matching genetic variation at the HLA region between donors and recipients and translating this into clinical practise to improve transplant outcome, much focus has been placed on trying to identify additional genetic predictors of transplant outcome/function. This review will focus on how candidate gene studies have identified variants within immunosuppression, immune response, fibrotic pathways, and specific ethnic groups, which correlate with graft outcome. We will also discuss the challenges faced by candidate gene studies, such as differences in donor and recipient selection criteria and use of small data sets, which have led to many genes failing to be consistently associated with transplant outcome. This review will also look at how recent advances in our understanding of and ability to screen the genome are starting to provide new insights into the mechanisms behind long-term graft loss and with it the opportunity to target these pathways therapeutically to ultimately increase graft lifespan and the associated benefits to patients. PMID:26262502

  19. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  20. Long-term polar motion prediction using normal time-frequency transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoqing; Liu, Lintao; Houtse, Hsu; Wang, Guocheng

    2014-02-01

    This paper presents normal time-frequency transform (NTFT) application in harmonic/quasi-harmonic signal prediction. Particularly, we use the normal wavelet transform (a special NTFT) to make long-term polar motion prediction. Instantaneous frequency, phase and amplitude of Chandler wobble, prograde and retrograde annual wobbles of Earth's polar motion are analyzed via the NTFT. Results show that the three main wobbles can be treated as quasi-harmonic processes. Current instantaneous harmonic information of the three wobbles can be acquired by the NTFT that has a kernel function constructed with a normal half-window function. Based on this information, we make the polar motion predictions with lead times of 1 year and 5 years. Results show that our prediction skills are very good with long lead time. An abnormality in the predictions occurs during the second half of 2005 and first half of 2006. Finally, we provide the future (starting from 2013) polar motion predictions with 1- and 5-year leads. These predictions will be used to verify the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.

  1. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    PubMed Central

    Yacoby, Amnon; Dudai, Yadin; Mendelsohn, Avi

    2015-01-01

    Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK). We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and were immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or 1 day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information 1 day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories. PMID:25709571

  2. Multiple trauma in children: predicting outcome and long-term results

    PubMed Central

    Letts, Mervyn; Davidson, Darin; Lapner, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Objective To analyze the management of pediatric trauma and the efficacy of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in classifying injury severity and predicting prognosis. Design A retrospective case series. Setting The Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, a major pediatric trauma centre. Patients One hundred and forty-nine traumatized children with 2 or more injuries to 1 body system or a single injury to 2 or more body systems. Interventions Use of the PTS and Glasgow Coma Scale score in trauma management. Main outcome measures Types of injuries sustained, complications, missed injuries, psychosocial effects and residual deficiencies. Results The average PTS was 8.5 (range from −3 to 11). The total number of injuries sustained was 494, most commonly closed head injury (86). Forty-two percent of children with an average trauma score of 8.5 were treated surgically. There were 13 missed injuries, and complications were encountered in 57 children, the most common being secondary to fractures. Forty-eight (32%) children had residual long-term deficiency, most commonly neurologic deficiency secondary to head injury. Conclusions Fractures should be stabilized early to decrease long-term complications. A deficiency of the PTS is the weighting of open fractures of a minor bone. For example, metacarpal fracture is given the same weight as an open fracture of the femur. Neuropsychologic difficulties secondary to trauma are a major sequela of trauma in children. PMID:11939656

  3. Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

  4. Repassivation potentials for long-term life prediction of localized corrosion

    SciTech Connect

    Sridhar, N.; Cragnolino, G.

    1993-12-31

    The effect of pit growth on repassivation potentials (e{sub rp}) of type 316L stainless steel (SS) and alloy 825 is investigated using a decreasing potential staircase technique. The E{sub rp} decreases initially with increasing pit depth and then attains a value which is relatively independent of pit depth. The E{sub rp} also decreases with increasing potential scan rate because of the decreasing time for repassivation with decreasing potential. The E{sub rp} is explained in terms of the effect of applied potential on changes in solution composition inside growing pits and its use is recommended as a bounding parameter for long-term prediction of localized corrosion.

  5. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1992-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  6. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    PubMed

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. PMID:24177136

  7. Long-term evolution and predictive factors of mild inflammatory bowel disease.

    PubMed

    Reenaers, C; Pirard, C; Vankemseke, C; Latour, P; Belaiche, J; Louis, E

    2016-06-01

    Background Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are potentially progressive diseases. Few data are available on the prevalence and the factors associated with mild inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Aim Our aim was to assess the natural history of mild CD and mild UC and to identify predictive factors of mild evolution over the long term. Methods Retrospective study of IBD patients registered in the database of the university hospital CHU of Liège, Belgium. Mild CD was defined as an inflammatory luminal disease (no stricture, abdominal or perianal fistulae) requiring no immunomodulator (IM), anti-TNF and no surgery. Mild UC was defined as no requirement for IM, anti-TNF and no colectomy. Results Four hundred and seventy-three CD and 189 UC were included (median follow-up: 13 and 11 years respectively). At 1 year, 147 patients had mild CD. At 5 years and the maximum follow-up, 56% and 13% patients still had mild CD, respectively. At 1 year, 142 patients had mild UC. At 5 years and the maximum follow-up, 72% and 44% still had a mild UC, respectively. Factors associated with long-term mild CD and UC were older age at diagnosis and absence of corticosteroids in the first year. In UC proctitis location was associated with mild UC. Conclusions In this cohort, 90% of CD patients and 3/4 of UC with mild disease at 1 year lost their mild disease status over time. An old age at diagnosis was predictive of the persistence of a mild CD and UC. PMID:26815198

  8. A simple model to predict the long-term fate of contaminants in unsaturated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, P.A. ); Sheppard, M.I.; Andres, T.H. )

    1993-01-01

    The authors present a model of contaminant transport in unsaturated soils that is suitable for long-term assessments. The model is based on a series of regression equations that represent the predictions of a mechanistic soil model. It therefore reflects the detailed treatment of processes, and the short time and space scales, of its parent code, but can predict root zone concentrations thousands of years in the future in just a few seconds of computer time, on even the simplest machines. The model accounts for transport via leaching and capillary rise, for chemical exchange between solid and liquid phases of the soil, and for losses, such as radioactive decay, gaseous evasion, and root uptake, that can be described as first-order processes. It can be applied to soils that are contaminated at the surface through irrigation or atmospheric deposition, or from below through contact with contaminated groundwater. It was developed to treat soil types and climates typical of the Canadian Shield, but could be modified for other conditions. The authors discuss the parent mechanistic model briefly, and then describe in detail its simplification and reduction to a simple assessment model. The authors show that the assessment model satisfactorily reproduces the predictions of the mechanistic model, which has been extensively validated against observations of contaminant concentrations in soils. A comparison of the model with multicompartment models, which have traditionally been used for assessment purposes, suggests that differences between the two types of models may cause systematic differences in predictions.

  9. Granular Model of Long-Term Prediction for Energy System in Steel Industry.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jun; Han, Zhongyang; Pedrycz, Witold; Wang, Wei

    2016-02-01

    Sound energy scheduling and allocation is of paramount significance for the current steel industry, and the quantitative prediction of energy media is being regarded as the prerequisite for such challenging tasks. In this paper, a long-term prediction for the energy flows is proposed by using a granular computing-based method that considers industrial-driven semantics and granulates the initial data based on the specificity of manufacturing processes. When forming information granules on a basis of experimental data, we propose to deal with the unequal-length temporal granules by exploiting dynamic time warping, which becomes instrumental to the realization of the prediction model. The model engages the fuzzy C -means clustering method. To quantify the performance of the proposed method, real-world industrial energy data coming from a steel plant in China are employed. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to some other data-driven methods and becomes capable of satisfying the requirements of the practically viable prediction. PMID:26168454

  10. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1991-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  11. Prognostic Significance of Premature Atrial Complexes Burden in Prediction of Long-Term Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Chin-Yu; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chen, Yun-Yu; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chung, Fa-Po; Hu, Yu-Feng; Chong, Eric; Cheng, Hao-Min; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chiou, Chuen-Wang; Huang, Jin-Long; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2015-01-01

    Background The prognostic significance of premature atrial complex (PAC) burden is not fully elucidated. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the burden of PACs and long-term outcome. Methods and Results We investigated the clinical characteristics of 5371 consecutive patients without atrial fibrillation (AF) or a permanent pacemaker (PPM) at baseline who underwent 24-hour electrocardiography monitoring between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2004. Clinical event data were retrieved from the Bureau of National Health Insurance of Taiwan. During a mean follow-up duration of 10±1 years, there were 1209 deaths, 1166 cardiovascular-related hospitalizations, 3104 hospitalizations for any reason, 418 cases of new-onset AF, and 132 PPM implantations. The optimal cut-off of PAC burden for predicting mortality was 76 beats per day, with a sensitivity of 63.1% and a specificity of 63.5%. In multivariate analysis, a PAC burden >76 beats per day was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio: 1.384, 95% CI: 1.230 to 1.558), cardiovascular hospitalization (hazard ratio: 1.284, 95% CI: 1.137 to 1.451), new-onset AF (hazard ratio: 1.757, 95% CI: 1.427 to 2.163), and PPM implantation (hazard ratio: 2.821, 95% CI: 1.898 to 4.192). Patients with frequent PAC had increased risk of mortality attributable to myocardial infarction, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. Frequent PACs increased risk of PPM implantation owing to sick sinus syndrome, high-degree atrioventricular block, and/or AF. Conclusions The burden of PACs is independently associated with mortality, cardiovascular hospitalization, new-onset AF, and PPM implantation in the long term. PMID:26316525

  12. Fitness predicts long-term survival after a cardiovascular event: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Barons, Martine J; Turner, Sally; Parsons, Nicholas; Griffiths, Frances; Bethell, Hugh; Weich, Scott; Thorogood, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To identify the role of fitness, fitness change, body mass index and other factors in predicting long-term (>5 years) survival in patients with coronary heart disease. Design Cohort study of patients with coronary heart disease recruited from 1 January 1993 to 31 December 2002, followed up to March 2011 (1 day to 18 years 3 months, mean 10.7 years). Setting A community-based National Health Service (NHS) cardiac rehabilitation programme serving the Basingstoke and Alton area in Hampshire, UK. Participants An unselected cohort of NHS patients, 2167 men and 547 women aged 28–88 years, who attended the rehabilitation programme following acute myocardial infarction, an episode of angina or revascularisation, and had a baseline fitness test. Main outcome measures Cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Results A high level of fitness (VO2≥22 mL/kg/min for men, VO2≥19 mL/kg/min for women) at completion of the programme was associated with decreased all-cause death, as was a prescription for statins or aspirin, and female gender. Increase in all-cause mortality was associated with higher age and ACE inhibitors prescription. Higher risk of cardiovascular mortality was associated with increasing age, prescriptions for ACE inhibitor, and diagnosis of myocardial infarction or angina as compared with the other diagnoses. Conclusions Prior fitness and fitness improvement are strong predictors of long-term survival in patients who have experienced a cardiac event or procedure. Some secondary prevention medications make a significant contribution to reducing all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in these patients. This study supports public health messages promoting fitness for life. PMID:26493455

  13. The Power of Renal Function Estimation Equations for Predicting Long-Term Kidney Graft Survival

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hoon Young; Joo, Dong Jin; Song, Mi Kyung; Kim, Myoung Soo; Park, Hyeong Cheon; Kim, Yu Seun; Kim, Beom Seok

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Evaluation of renal function using an accurate estimation equation is important for predicting long-term graft survival. We designed this retrospective cohort study to evaluate the predictive power of renal function estimation by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equations for graft survival. We reviewed data of 3290 adult kidney transplant recipients who underwent transplantation at a single center between April 1979 and September 2012. The reliability and agreement of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as calculated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations were evaluated using Bland–Altman plots and Cohen weighted kappa analyses. The predictive power of CKD stages as classified by each equation for graft survival was investigated using Cox regression models. Additionally, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to reveal the relationship between graft survival and eGFR equations. Of 3290 kidney transplant recipients, 3040 were included in the analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 128.08 ± 83.54 months, and 29.8% of participants were reclassified to higher eGFR categories by the CKD-EPI equation compared to the category classification by the MDRD equation. eGFR calculated using the MDRD equation was underestimated compared to that calculated using the CKD-EPI equation, based on the Bland–Altman plot. In Cohen weighted kappa analysis, agreement across CKD stages classified using the 2 equations was reliable, but all CKD stages classified using the MDRD equation appeared to be in lower eGFR categories than those classified using the CKD-EPI equation. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses indicated that the CKD stage as classified by the CKD-EPI equation, but not the MDRD equation, was significantly correlated with the risk of graft failure. In multivariable Cox regression analysis for

  14. Holmium laser transurethral incision of the prostate: Can prostate size predict the long-term outcome?

    PubMed Central

    Elkoushy, Mohamed A.; Elshal, Ahmed M.; Elhilali, Mostafa M.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: We determine the impact of prostate size on the long-term outcome of holmium laser transurethral incision of the prostate (Ho-TUIP) for bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) secondary to benign prostate enlargement (BPE). Methods: A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was performed for patients undergoing Ho-TUIP by a single surgeon for patients presenting with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to BOO. Patients were stratified into 2 groups: Group 1 included patients with prostate ≤30 cc and Group 2 included patients with prostate >30 cc. Demographic, operative and follow-up data were recorded and analyzed. In addition, intraoperative and long-term adverse events were included. Results: In total, 82 patients underwent surgery between March 1998 and March 2013, including 9 (11%) reoperated patients. Only prostate size independently predicted reoperation after Ho-TUIP (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.12 [2.92–9.14], p = 0.01). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed an optimal cutoff value of prostate volume of 29 cc to characterize long-term reoperation after TUIP, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.96, sensitivity of 89.7 and specificity of 88.9. Group 1 included 51 patients and Group 2 included 31 patients. The international prostate symptoms score (IPSS) and peak flow rate (Qmax) significantly improved in both groups at different follow-up points. At the 12-month follow-up, the percent change in IPSS and Qmax were comparable between both groups. However, after 12 months, the degree of improvement in all voiding parameters was significantly higher in Group 1 (p < 0.001 at all points of follow-up). After a median follow-up of 5.3 years (range: 1–13), both groups had comparable early and late adverse events with significantly higher reoperation rate in Group 2 (3.9% vs. 22.6%, p = 0.02). Overall retrograde ejaculation was detected in 25.6% of sexually active men and it was

  15. A New Height Error Revision Method of Predicting Long-Term Wind Speed with MCP Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yujue; Hu, Fei

    2013-04-01

    Wind energy technology is one of the fastest in growing rate in new and renewable energy technologies. It is very important to select stronger windy sites in a country for the purpose of producing more electricity. Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) algorithms are used to predict the wind resource at target site for wind power development. MCP method model bases on a relationship between wind data (speed and direction) measured at the target site and concurrent wind data at reference site nearby. The model is then used with long-term data from the reference site to predict the long-term wind speed and direction distributions at the target site. MCP method is in order to be able to determine the annual energy capture of a wind farm located at the target site. Over the last 15 years well over a half dozen of MCP methods in the literature. The MCP algorithms differ in terms of overall approach, model definition, use of direction sectors, and length of the data. Such as 1)a linear regression model; 2)a model using distributions of ratios of wind speeds at two sites; 3)a vector regression method; 4)a method based on the ratio of standard deviations of two data sets, etc. Unfortunately, none of these MCP algorithms can predict wind speed from two sites at different altitudes. If the target site is much higher or lower than the reference site, the result accuracy will be much poorer. Inner Mongolia grassland is known as one of the regions that rich in wind resource in China. The data we use is from three wind measurements, consisting of nearly one year of six layers in XiLinGuoLe of Inner Mongolia . Firstly, we use the maximum likelihood method to estimate k, shape parameter and c, scale parameter of the Weibull function for different time periods. And then we find out that c has a power law function of height, and that k varies as the form of a quadratic function of height and obtains the max value in the height of 10 to100 meters. Finally, we add the height distribution

  16. Coronary artery calcifications predict long term cardiovascular events in non diabetic Caucasian hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Noce, Annalisa; Canale, Maria Paola; Capria, Ambrogio; Rovella, Valentina; Tesauro, Manfredi; Splendiani, Giorgio; Annicchiarico-Petruzzelli, Margherita; Manzuoli, Micol; Simonetti, Giovanni; Di Daniele, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Vascular calcifications are frequent in chronic renal disease and are associated to significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The long term predictive value of coronary artery calcifications detected by multi-layer spiral computed tomography for major cardiovascular events was evaluated in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis free of clinical cardiovascular disease. Two-hundred and five patients on maintenance hemodialysis were enrolled into this observational, prospective cohort study. Patients underwent a single cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography. Calcium load was quantified and patients grouped according to the Agatston score: group 1 (Agatston score: 0), group 2 (Agatston score 1-400), group 3 (Agatston score 401-1000) and group 4 (Agatston score >1000). Follow-up was longer than seven years. Primary endpoint was death from a major cardiovascular event. Actuarial survival was calculated separately in the four groups with Kaplan-Meier method. Patients who died from causes other than cardiovascular disease and transplanted patients were censored. The “log rank” test was employed to compare survival curves. One-hundred two patients (49.7%) died for a major cardiovascular event during the follow-up period. Seven-year actuarial survival was more than 90% for groups 1 and 2, but failed to about 50% for group 3 and to <10% for group 4. Hence, Agatston score >400 predicts a significantly higher cardiovascular mortality compared with Agatston score <400 (p<0.0001); furthermore, serum Parathyroid hormone levels > 300 pg/l were associated to a lower survival (p < 0.05). Extended coronary artery calcifications detected by cardiac multi-layer spiral computed tomography, strongly predicted long term cardiovascular mortality in non-diabetic Caucasian patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Moreover, it was not related to conventional indices of atherosclerosis, but to other non-traditional risk factors, as serum Parathyroid

  17. Vasoreactivity to inhaled nitric oxide with oxygen predicts long-term survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    PubMed

    Malhotra, Rajeev; Hess, Dean; Lewis, Gregory D; Bloch, Kenneth D; Waxman, Aaron B; Semigran, Marc J

    2011-04-01

    Pulmonary vasodilator testing is currently used to guide management of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, the utility of the pulmonary vascular response to inhaled nitric oxide (NO) and oxygen in predicting survival has not been established. Eighty patients with WHO Group I PAH underwent vasodilator testing with inhaled NO (80 ppm with 90% O(2) for 10 minutes) at the time of diagnosis. Changes in right atrial (RA) pressure, mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, Fick cardiac output, and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were tested for associations to long-term survival (median follow-up 2.4 years). Five-year survival was 56%. Baseline PVR (mean±SD 850±580 dyne-sec/cm(5)) and mPAP (49±14 mmHg) did not predict survival, whereas the change in either PVR or mPAP while breathing NO and O(2) was predictive. Patients with a ≥30% reduction in PVR with inhaled NO and O(2) had a 53% relative reduction in mortality (Cox hazard ratio 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.99, P=0.047), and those with a ≥12% reduction in mPAP with inhaled NO and O(2) had a 55% relative reduction in mortality (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.22-0.96, P=0.038). The same vasoreactive thresholds predicted survival in the subset of patients who never were treated with calcium channel antagonists (n=66). Multivariate analysis showed that decreases in PVR and mPAP with inhaled NO and O(2) were independent predictors of survival. Reduction in PVR or mPAP during short-term administration of inhaled NO and O(2) predicts survival in PAH patients. PMID:22020367

  18. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sun-Young; Yi, Seon-Ju; Eum, Young Seob; Choi, Hae-Jin; Shin, Hyesop; Ryou, Hyoung Gon; Kim, Ho

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively). Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics. PMID:25262773

  19. Long-term colonic hypersensitivity in adult rats induced by neonatal unpredictable vs predictable shock.

    PubMed

    Tyler, K; Moriceau, S; Sullivan, R M; Greenwood-van Meerveld, B

    2007-09-01

    Our goal was to examine the relationship between early life trauma and the development of visceral hypersensitivity in later life in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Rat pups underwent neonatal conditioning: (i) paired odour-shock, where odour is a predictable shock signal, (ii) unpaired odour-shock, where odour is an unpredictable shock signal or (iii) control odour-only with odour presentations and handling without shock. At maturity, colorectal sensitivity was measured as a visceromotor behavioural response. In adulthood, colorectal distension (CRD) induced a pressure-dependent increase in the number of abdominal muscle contractions all three experimental groups. However, compared to animals that had received control odour-only presentations in infancy, there was an attenuated response to CRD in animals previously exposed to neonatal predictable shock pups and an exaggerated response in the animals previously exposed to neonatal unpredictable shock. Adult responses to CRD were altered by infant experience with shock trauma. However, depending on the context of that early life trauma, there are major differences between the long-term effects of that early life trauma on colonic sensitivity compared to controls. These results strengthen the link between early life trauma and adult IBS, and suggest that unpredictable trauma is a critical factor for later life disorders. PMID:17727395

  20. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  1. Effects of regional differences in the long term carbon balance on predicted net CO2 fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, Tilo; Scholze, Marko; Knorr, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) allows the current fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere to be mapped and the evolution of these fluxes into the future to be predicted. In this work we concentrate on the calibration mode of CCDAS where an optimal parameter set is derived from 10 years of atmospheric CO2 concentration observations using an adjoint approach. Global and regional process parameters are considered via a mapping routine. The parameters are then optimised by calculating the mismatch of the observations and prior knowledge of the parameters via a defined cost function. Further, parameter uncertainty estimates, which are obtained during the parameter optimisation step, can be propagated in order to estimate uncertainties of any given output such as of the predicted net CO2 fluxes. The process based terrestrial biosphere model BETHY is the core of CCDAS. It simulates carbon assimilation and soil respiration within a full energy and water balance and phenology scheme. Produced fluxes are then mapped onto atmospheric concentrations using the atmospheric transport model TM2. BETHY has 20 parameters for each plant functional type (PFT). There is a choice from a single global description up to independent parameter sets for every grid point. In the base case, all parameters are applied globally. Additionally, the key photosynthetic parameters (maximum electron transport and maximum carboxylation rate) and the key carbon storage parameter β vary with each of the 13 PFTs which gives a total of 56 control parameters. The β parameter is a scaling parameter for a constraint that exists for the long term carbon balance. This constraint is implemented in BETHY in order to consider unknown processes such as climate forcing and disturbance. On the contrary to the other process parameters, β is not necessarily a global parameter. In fact, there might be a strong regional dependency, because β represents information about the history of the site and the

  2. Lesion Load May Predict Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lavorgna, Luigi; Messina, Silvia; Chisari, Clara Grazia; Ippolito, Domenico; Lanzillo, Roberta; Vacchiano, Veria; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Paola; Coniglio, Gabriella; Buccafusca, Maria; Paolicelli, Damiano; D’Ambrosio, Alessandro; Montella, Patrizia; Brescia Morra, Vincenzo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Alfano, Bruno; Gallo, Antonio; Simone, Isabella; Viterbo, Rosa; Zappia, Mario; Bonavita, Simona; Tedeschi, Gioacchino

    2015-01-01

    Background Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm) in Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives To investigate the role of white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients. Methods 303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up). The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f) of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f), WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f), a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL), the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT). In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors. Results AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12–1.97 p = 0.006), PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14–1.80 p = 0.002), SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35–2.20 p<0.001), SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28–2.03 p<0.001), MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2–1.9 p<0.001), MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2–1.9 p = 0.001), MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02–1.55 p = 0.032). Conclusion In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome. PMID:25816303

  3. Preschool Speech Intelligibility and Vocabulary Skills Predict Long-Term Speech and Language Outcomes Following Cochlear Implantation in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G.; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C.; Colson, Bethany G.; Pisoni, David B.

    2013-01-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants, but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine if early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of cochlear implants. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3 – 6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes. PMID:23998347

  4. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes. PMID:23998347

  5. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect

    Gollany, H. T.; Rickman, R. W.; Albrecht, S. L.; Liang, Y.; Kang, Shujiang; Machado, S.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the potential of no-tillage (NT) management to maintain SOC stocks while removing crop residue. Classical LTEs at Champaign, IL (1876), Columbia, MO (1888), Lethbridge, AB (1911), Breton, AB (1930), and Pendleton, OR (1931) were selected for their documented history of management practice and periodic soil organic matter (SOM) measurements. Management practices ranged from monoculture to 2- or 3-yr crop rotations, manure, no fertilizer or fertilizer additions, and crop residue returned, burned, or harvested. Measured and CQESTR predicted SOC stocks under diverse agronomic practices, mean annual temperature (2.1 19 C), precipitation (402 973 mm), and SOC (5.89 33.58 g SOC kg 1) at the LTE sites were significantly related (r 2 = 0.94, n = 186, P < 0.0001) with a slope not significantly different than 1. The simulation results indicated that the quantities of crop residue that can be sustainably harvested without jeopardizing SOC stocks were influenced by initial SOC stocks, crop rotation intensity, tillage practices, crop yield, and climate. Manure or a cover crop/intensified crop rotation under NT are options to mitigate loss of crop residue C, as using fertilizer alone is insufficient to overcome residue removal impact on SOC stocks

  6. Response to methotrexate predicts long-term patient-related outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis.

    PubMed

    Krause, Dietmar; Gabriel, Bernadette; Herborn, Gertraud; Braun, Juergen; Rau, Rolf

    2016-05-01

    This study was conducted to investigate the predictive value of the initial response to methotrexate (MTX) on long-term patient-related outcomes (PROs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). All RA patients starting MTX treatment between 1980 and 1987 in our department were enrolled in a prospective observational study. After an average of 18 years, patient-related outcomes were assessed in three dimensions according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Statistical analyses employed multivariable models with baseline values for age, gender, disease duration, rheumatoid factor positivity, disease activity, response to MTX after 1 year and continuous use of MTX as covariates. The 271 patients enrolled had a mean disease duration of 8.5 years, a mean number of swollen joints of 18 (out of 32), and a mean erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 55 mm/h. After 18 years, PRO was available in 89 patients (33 %). A clinical improvement of at least 20 % 1 year after the initiation of MTX was associated with a favourable outcome in all three dimensions of the ICF, independent of continuation of MTX (p < 0.05). The initial response to MTX is an independent predictor of PRO in RA as assessed after an average of 18 years. PMID:26920753

  7. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-12-31

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion.

  8. Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

    The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

  9. Glycated Albumin Predicts Long-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Ma, Wen-Ya; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Liu, Yueh-Min; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: In patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing maintenance hemodialysis, glycated albumin (GA) levels may be more representative of blood glucose levels than hemoglobin A1C levels. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of GA levels on long-term survival in hemodialysis patients. Methods: A total of 176 patients with a mean age of 68.2 years were enrolled. The median duration of follow-up was 51.0 months. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff value. We examined the cumulative survival rate by Kaplan-Meier estimates and the influence of known survival factors with the multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression model. Results: In the whole patient group, cumulative survival in the low GA group was better than in the high GA group (p=0.030), with more prominence in those aged <70 years (p=0.029). In subgroup analysis, both diabetic (DM) and non-DM patients with low GA had a better cumulative survival compared with those with high GA. The risk of mortality increased by 3.0% for each 1% increase in serum GA level in all patients undergoing hemodialysis. Conclusions: In addition to serving as a glycemic control marker, GA levels may be useful for evaluating the risk of death in both DM and non-DM patients on hemodialysis. PMID:27226780

  10. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  11. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-01-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reaches an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature, and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes circa 300 years for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  12. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  13. Early Prediction of Long-Term Response to Cabergoline in Patients with Macroprolactinomas

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Youngki; Ku, Cheol Ryong; Kim, Eui-Hyun; Lee, Eun Jig; Kim, Sun Ho

    2014-01-01

    Background Cabergoline is typically effective for treating prolactinomas; however, some patients display cabergoline resistance, and the early characteristics of these patients remain unclear. We analyzed early indicators predicting long-term response to cabergoline. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 44 patients with macroprolactinomas who received cabergoline as first-line treatment; the patients were followed for a median of 16 months. The influence of various clinical parameters on outcomes was evaluated. Results Forty patients (90.9%) were treated medically and displayed tumor volume reduction (TVR) of 74.7%, a prolactin normalization (NP) rate of 81.8%, and a complete response (CR; TVR >50% with NP, without surgery) rate of 70.5%. Most patients (93.1%) with TVR ≥25% and NP at 3 months eventually achieved CR, whereas only 50% of patients with TVR ≥25% without NP and no patients with TVR <25% achieved CR. TVR at 3 months was strongly correlated with final TVR (R=0.785). Patients with large macroadenomas exhibited a low NP rate at 3 months, but eventually achieved TVR and NP rates similar to those of patients with smaller tumors. Surgery independently reduced the final dose of cabergoline (β=-1.181 mg/week), and two of four patients who underwent surgery were able to discontinue cabergoline. Conclusion Determining cabergoline response using TVR and NP 3 months after treatment is useful for predicting later outcomes. However, further cabergoline administration should be considered for patients with TVR >25% at 3 months without NP, particularly those with huge prolactinomas, because a delayed response may be achieved. As surgery can reduce the cabergoline dose necessary for successful disease control, it should be considered for cabergoline-resistant patients. PMID:25309786

  14. Predicting long-term denitrification capacity of sandy aquifers from incubation experiments and sediment properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschenbach, W.; Well, R.

    2012-07-01

    Knowledge about the spatial variability of denitrification rates and the lifetime of denitrification in nitrate-contaminated aquifers is crucial to predict the development of groundwater quality. Therefore, regression models were derived to estimate the measured denitrification capacity of incubated aquifer sediments from initial denitrification rates and several sediment parameters, namely total sulphur, total organic carbon, extractable sulfate, extractable dissolved organic carbon, hot water soluble organic carbon and potassium permanganate labile organic carbon. For this purpose, we incubated aquifer material from two sandy Pleistocene aquifers in Northern Germany under anaerobic conditions in the laboratory using the 15N tracer technique. The measured long-term denitrification capacities ranged from 0.18 to 56.2 mg N kg-1 yr-1. The laboratory incubations exhibited high differences between non-sulphidic and sulphidic aquifer material in both aquifers with respect to all investigated sediment parameters. Denitrification rates and the estimated lifetime of denitrification were higher in the sulphidic samples. Denitrification capacity measured during one year of incubation (Dcap) was predictable from sediment variables within a range of uncertainty of 0.5 to 2 (calculated Dcap/measured Dcap) for aquifer material with a Dcap > 20 mg N kg-1 yr-1. Predictions were poor for samples with lower Dcap like samples from the NO3--bearing groundwater zone, which includes the non-sulphidic samples, from the upper part of both aquifers where Dcap is not sufficient to protect groundwater from anthropogenic NO3- input. Calculation of Dcap from initial denitrification rates was only successful for samples from the NO3--bearing zone, whereas a lag-phase of denitrification in samples from deeper zones of NO3- free groundwater caused imprecise predictions. Our results thus show that Dcap of sandy Pleistocene aquifers can be predicted using a combination of short-term incubation and

  15. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  16. Creep: Long-term Time-Dependent Rock Deformation in a Deep-sea Laboratory in the Ionian sea: a Pilot Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, P. G.; Boon, S.; Vinciguerra, S.; Bowles, J.; NEMO Group,.

    2003-12-01

    Time-dependent brittle rock deformation is of first-order importance for understanding the long-term behavior of water saturated rocks in the Earth's upper crust. Interpretation of results from traditional laboratory brittle creep experiments have generally been in terms of three individual creep phases; primary (decelerating), secondary (constant strain rate or quasi-steady-state) and tertiary (accelerating or unstable). The deformation may be distributed during the first two, but localizes onto a fault plane during phase three. More recently, models have been proposed that explain the trimodal shape of creep curves in terms of the competition between a weakening mechanism and a strengthening mechanism, with the weakening mechanism eventually dominating and leading to localized failure. However, a major problem is that it is difficult to distinguish between these competing mechanisms and models given the lower limit of strain rates achievable in laboratory experiments over practicable time scales. This study aims to address that problem directly by extending significantly the range of achievable strain rates through much longer-term experiments conducted in a deep-sea laboratory in the Ionian sea. The project takes advantage of a collaboration with the NEMO Group-INFN, a consortium that is developing a large volume (1 km3) deep-sea detector for high-energy (>1019 eV) cosmic neutrinos. A suitable test site has been identified, some 20km north-east of Catania in Sicily, at a depth of 2100m. Within the CREEP deformation apparatus, confining pressure is provided by the ambient water pressure (>22MPa), and the constant axial stress is provided by an actuator that amplifies this pressure. Measurement transducers and a data acquisition system are sealed internally, with power provided for up to 6 months by an internal battery pack. The great advantage of operating in the deep sea in this way is that the system is essentially passive, has few moving parts, and requires no

  17. Double quantization of the regressor space for long-term time series prediction: method and proof of stability.

    PubMed

    Simon, Geoffroy; Lendasse, Amaury; Cottrell, Marie; Fort, Jean-Claude; Verleysen, Michel

    2004-01-01

    The Kohonen self-organization map is usually considered as a classification or clustering tool, with only a few applications in time series prediction. In this paper, a particular time series forecasting method based on Kohonen maps is described. This method has been specifically designed for the prediction of long-term trends. The proof of the stability of the method for long-term forecasting is given, as well as illustrations of the utilization of the method both in the scalar and vectorial cases. PMID:15555859

  18. Near and long-term load prediction using radial basis function networks

    SciTech Connect

    Hancock, M.F.

    1995-12-31

    A number of researchers have investigated the application of multi-layer perceptrons (MLP`s), a variety of neural network, to the problem of short-term load forecasting for electric utilities (e.g., Rahman & Hazin, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, May 1993). {open_quotes}Short-term{close_quotes} in this context typically means {open_quotes}next day{close_quotes}. These forecasts have been based upon previous day actual loads and meteorological factors (e.g., max-min temperature, relative humidity). We describe the application of radial basis function networks (RBF`s) to the {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} (next year) load forecasting problem. The RBF network performs a two-stage classification based upon annual average loads and meteorological data. During stage 1, discrete classification is performed using radius-limited elements. During stage 2, a multi-layer perceptron may be applied. The quantized output is used to correct a prediction template. The stage 1 classifier is trained by maximizing an objective function (the {open_quotes}disambiguity{close_quotes}). The stage 2 MLP`s are trained by standard back-propagation. This work uses 12 months of hourly meteorological data, and the corresponding hourly load data for both commercial and residential feeders. At the current stage of development, the RBF machine can train on 20% of the weather/load data (selected by simple linear sampling), and estimate the hourly load for an entire year (8,760 data points) with 9.1% error (RMS, relative to daily peak load). (By comparison, monthly mean profiles perform at c. 12% error.) The best short-term load forecasters operate in the 2% error range. The current system is an engineering prototype, and development is continuing.

  19. Long-term testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G. A., Jr.

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000-10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  20. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  1. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples

    PubMed Central

    Baucom, Brian R.; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f0), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f0 were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. PMID:22542535

  2. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  3. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  4. Predictive factors for long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion: a multivariate data analysis.

    PubMed

    Peolsson, Anneli; Peolsson, Michael

    2008-03-01

    We conducted a prospective randomized study to investigate predictive factors for short- and long-term outcome of anterior cervical decompression and fusion (ACDF) as measured by current pain intensity on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and by disability using the Neck Disability Index (NDI). Current understanding about how preoperative and short-term outcome data predict long-term outcome is sparse, and there are few studies involving analysis of short-term follow-up using multivariate approaches with quantification of the relative importance of each variable studied. A total of 95 patients were randomly allocated for ACDF with the cervical intervertebral fusion cage or the Cloward procedure. The mean follow-up time was 19 months (range 12-24) for short-term follow-up and 76 months (range 56-94 months) for long-term. Background factors, radiologically detected findings, physiological measurements, treatment type, pain, and disability were used as potential predictors. Multivariate statistical analysis by projection to latent structures was used to investigate predictors of importance for short- and long-term outcome of ACDF. A "preoperative" low disability and pain intensity, non-smoking status, male sex, good hand strength, and an active range of motion (AROM) in the neck were significant predictors for good short- and long-term outcomes. The short-term outcome data were better at predicting long-term outcome than were baseline data. Radiologically detected findings and surgical technique used were mainly insignificant as predictors. We suggest that the inclusion criteria for ACDF should be based on a bio-psycho-social model including NDI. NDI may also be regarded as an important outcome measurement in evaluation of ACDF. PMID:18084782

  5. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  6. Predicting Long-term Soil Organic Matter Dynamics as affected by Agricultural Management Practice Using the CQESTR Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Management of soil organic matter (SOM) is important for soil productivity and responsible utilization of crop residues. Carbon (C) models are needed to predict long-term effects of management practices on C storage in soils and to estimate the benefits when considering alternative management practi...

  7. Creep: long-term time-dependent rock deformation in a deep-sea laboratory in the ionian sea: a pilot study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, P.; Boon, S.; Vinciguerra, S.; Bowles, J.; Hughes, N.; Migneco, E.; Musumeci, M.; Piattelli, P.; Riccobene, G.; Vinciguerra, D.

    2003-04-01

    Time-dependent brittle rock deformation is of first-order importance for understanding the long-term behaviour of water saturated rocks in the Earth's upper crust. The traditional way of investigating this has been to carry out laboratory "brittle creep" experiments. Results have been interpreted involving three individual creep phases; primary (decelerating), secondary (constant strain rate or steady state) and tertiary (accelerating or unstable). The deformation may be distributed during the first two, but localizes onto a fault plane during phase three. However, it is difficult to distinguish between competing mechanisms and models given the lower limit of strain rates practicably achievable in the laboratory. The study reported here aims to address this problem directly by extending significantly the range of achievable strain rates through much longer-term experiments conducted in a deep-sea laboratory in the Ionian sea. The project takes advantage of a collaboration with the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud (LNS) of the Italian National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN), that is developing a deep-sea laboratory for a very large volume (1 km3) deep-sea detector of high-energy (>1019 eV) cosmic neutrinos (NEMO). A suitable deep-sea site has been identified, some 20km south-west of Catania in Sicily, with flat bathymetry at a depth of 2100m. The CREEP deformation apparatus is driven by an actuator that amplifies the ambient water pressure, while the confining pressure around the rock sample is provided by the ambient water pressure (>20MPa). Measurement transducers and a low-energy data acquisition system are sealed internally, with power provided for up to 6 months by an internal battery pack. The great advantage of operating in the deep sea in this way is that the system is simple; it is "passive", has few moving parts, and requires no maintenance. The apparatus is fixed approximately 10m above the seabed; held in place by a disposable concrete anchor and

  8. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today. PMID:26219117

  9. Predictive capability of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

    1984-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems. Previously announced in STAR as N83-22386

  10. Value of Superficial Cultures for Prediction of Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infection in Long-Term Catheters: a Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín-Rabadán, P.; Echenagusia, A.; Camúñez, F.; Rodríguez-Rosales, G.; Simó, G.; Echenagusia, M.; Bouza, E.

    2013-01-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports. PMID:23850957

  11. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years. PMID:26735853

  12. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals’ social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years. PMID:26735853

  13. Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

    1979-01-01

    The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

  14. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  15. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  16. An accurate and efficient method for prediction of the long-term evolution of space debris in the geosynchronous region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, Roger P.; Eagle, C. D.

    1992-08-01

    Planetary Observer High Accuracy Orbit Prediction Program (POHOP), an existing numerical integrator, was modified with the solar and lunar formulae developed by T.C. Van Flandern and K.F. Pulkkinen to provide the accuracy required to evaluate long-term orbit characteristics of objects on the geosynchronous region. The orbit of a 1000 kg class spacecraft is numerically integrated over 50 years using both the original and the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides methods. Results of this study demonstrate that, over the long term, for an object located in the geosynchronous region, the more accurate solar and lunar ephemerides effects on the objects's position are significantly different than using the current POHOP ephemeris.

  17. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  18. Structural and parameterization issues of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models for long-term predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappas, Christoforos; Fatichi, Simone; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Burlando, Paolo

    2013-04-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are widely used for analyzing forest growth dynamics and possible biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate. Their performance has been typically tested against flux tower and forest inventory observations and by model intercomparison studies. In the present analysis the parameterization of LPJ-GUESS, a state-of-the-art ecosystem model, was evaluated by performing a global sensitivity analysis. We show that simulated carbon fluxes and pools are highly sensitive to parameters related to photosynthesis. At the same time, the sensitivity to parameters controlling plant water relations was low even in relatively dry conditions. Both of these results seem to be in contradiction with recent evidence showing that photosynthesis is not the primary driver of plant growth while plant-water relations and thermal controls are significant. In addition, we investigate how parameter variability, driven by plant acclimation and evolution, is translated into uncertainties of model realizations. This is achieved by presenting an ensemble of global-scale simulations based on a simple "perturbed biophysics" experiment. Because the aim of DGVMs is often long term, climate non-stationary projections, we argue that significant amendments are needed in the their structures and not only in their parameterizations.

  19. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  20. Rapid decrease in tumor perfusion following VEGF blockade predicts long-term tumor growth inhibition in preclinical tumor models.

    PubMed

    Eichten, Alexandra; Adler, Alexander P; Cooper, Blerta; Griffith, Jennifer; Wei, Yi; Yancopoulos, George D; Lin, Hsin Chieh; Thurston, Gavin

    2013-04-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a key upstream mediator of tumor angiogenesis, and blockade of VEGF can inhibit tumor angiogenesis and decrease tumor growth. However, not all tumors respond well to anti-VEGF therapy. Despite much effort, identification of early response biomarkers that correlate with long-term efficacy of anti-VEGF therapy has been difficult. These difficulties arise in part because the functional effects of VEGF inhibition on tumor vessels are still unclear. We therefore assessed rapid molecular, morphologic and functional vascular responses following treatment with aflibercept (also known as VEGF Trap or ziv-aflibercept in the United States) in preclinical tumor models with a range of responses to anti-VEGF therapy, including Colo205 human colorectal carcinoma (highly sensitive), C6 rat glioblastoma (moderately sensitive), and HT1080 human fibrosarcoma (resistant), and correlated these changes to long-term tumor growth inhibition. We found that an overall decrease in tumor vessel perfusion, assessed by dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US), and increases in tumor hypoxia correlated well with long-term tumor growth inhibition, whereas changes in vascular gene expression and microvessel density did not. Our findings support previous clinical studies showing that decreased tumor perfusion after anti-VEGF therapy (measured by DCE-US) correlated with response. Thus, measuring tumor perfusion changes shortly after treatment with VEGF inhibitors, or possibly other anti-angiogenic therapies, may be useful to predict treatment efficacy. PMID:23238831

  1. Prognostic factors in ovarian carcinoma stage III patients. Can biomarkers improve the prediction of short- and long-term survivors?

    PubMed

    Kaern, J; Aghmesheh, M; Nesland, J M; Danielsen, H E; Sandstad, B; Friedlander, M; Tropé, C

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine if biomarker expression could help discriminate between short-term and long-term survivors in women with advanced ovarian cancer. Fifty-one patients with stage III ovarian cancer were selected for the study, which included 28 short-term survivors (death from ovarian cancer within 18 months) and 23 long-term survivors (alive for more than 5 years). There was no difference between the two groups with respect to FIGO substage, age, World Health Organization score, and first-line platinum therapy. Classic clinical pathologic parameters were examined together with p53, Bcl-2, Ki-67, PDGFRalpha, P-glycoprotein, BRCA1, and DNA ploidy. Immunohistochemistry was used for scoring biomarker expression and image cytometry for DNA ploidy. All patients had primary debulking surgery followed by first-line platinum therapy. On multivariate analysis, the presence of ascites, debulking surgery and repeat laparotomy, clear-cell histology, elevated CA125, and high Ki-67 score were all found to be of prognostic importance. The long-term survivors were characterized by primary optimal cytoreduction surgery (<1 cm residual disease), attempt at maximal tumor debulking by experienced gynecological oncologic surgeons, and the absence of ascites. Normal CA125 level before platinum therapy and negative Ki-67 expression also predicted a more favorable prognosis. PMID:16343177

  2. Long-Term Incidence and Predicting Factors of Cranioplasty Infection after Decompressive Craniectomy

    PubMed Central

    Im, Sang-Hyuk; Han, Young-Min; Kim, Jong-Tae; Chung, Dong Sup; Park, Young Sup

    2012-01-01

    Objective The predictors of cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy have not yet been fully characterized. The objective of the current study was to compare the long-term incidences of surgical site infection according to the graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy, and to determine the associated factors of cranioplasty infection. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess graft infection in patients who underwent cranioplasty after decompressive craniectomy between 2001 and 2011 at a single-center. From a total of 197 eligible patients, 131 patients undergoing 134 cranioplasties were assessed for event-free survival according to graft material and cranioplasty timing after craniectomy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression methods were employed, with cranioplasty infection identified as the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were also evaluated, including autogenous bone resorption, epidural hematoma, subdural hematoma and brain contusion. Results The median follow-up duration was 454 days (range 10 to 3900 days), during which 14 (10.7%) patients suffered cranioplasty infection. There was no significant difference between the two groups for event-free survival rate for cranioplasty infection with either a cryopreserved or artificial bone graft (p=0.074). Intergroup differences according to cranioplasty time after craniectomy were also not observed (p=0.083). Poor neurologic outcome at cranioplasty significantly affected the development of cranioplasty infection (hazard ratio 5.203, 95% CI 1.075 to 25.193, p=0.04). Conclusion Neurologic status may influence cranioplasty infection after decompressive craniectomy. A further prospective study about predictors of cranioplasty infection including graft material and cranioplasty timing is necessary. PMID:23133731

  3. Cerebral performance category at hospital discharge predicts long-term survival of cardiac arrest survivors receiving targeted temperature management

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Cindy H.; Li, Jiaqi; Cinousis, Marisa J.; Sheak, Kelsey R.; Gaieski, David F.; Abella, Benjamin S.; Leary, Marion

    2014-01-01

    Objective Despite recent advancements in post-cardiac arrest resuscitation, the optimal measurement of post-arrest outcome remains unclear. We hypothesized that cerebral performance category (CPC) score can predict the long-term outcome of post- arrest survivors who received targeted temperature management (TTM) during their post-arrest hospital care. Design Retrospective chart review. Setting Two academic medical centers from May, 2005 to December, 2012. Patients The medical records of 2,417 out-of-hospital and in-hospital post-cardiac arrest patients were reviewed to identify 140 out of 582 survivors who received TTM. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results The CPC scores at hospital discharge were determined by three independent abstractors. The 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month survival of these patients were determined by reviewing hospital records, querying the Social Security Death Index, and follow-up telephone calls. The unadjusted long-term survival and adjusted survival association with CPC were calculated. Of the 2,417 identified cardiac arrest patients, 24.1% (582/2417) were successfully resuscitated, of whom 24.1% (140/582) received post-arrest TTM. Overall, 42.9% (60/140) were discharged with CPC 1, 27.1% (38/140) with CPC 2, 18.6% (26/140) with CPC 3, and 11.4% (16/140) with CPC 4. CPC 1 survivors had the highest long-term survival followed by CPC 2 and 3, with CPC 4 having the lowest long-term survival (p < 0.001, log-rank test). We found that CPC 3 (hazard ratio = 3.62, p < 0.05) and CPC 4 (hazard ratio = 12.73, p <0.001) remained associated with worse survival after adjusting for age, gender, race, shockable rhythm, time to TTM initiation, total duration of resuscitation, withdrawal of care, and location of arrest. Conclusion Patients with different CPC scores at discharge have significantly different survival trajectories. Favorable CPC at hospital discharge predicts better long-term outcomes of cardiac arrest survivors who received TTM

  4. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with carpets that are not new, (2) calculate the time-dependent VOC distributions in a test chamber or room, and (3) consider the temperature effect on VOC emissions. Based on small-scale chamber data, both models were used to examine the VOC emissions under different temperatures from polypropene styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) bitumen-backed carpet. The short-term predictions show that the VOC emissions under different temperatures can be modeled solely by changing the carpet diffusion coefficients. A formulation of the Arrhenius relation was used to correlate the dependence of carpet diffusion coefficient with temperature. The long-term predictions show that it would take several years to bake out the VOCs, and temperature would have a major impact on the bake-out time.

  5. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    SciTech Connect

    Wicks, G G

    2001-03-28

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  6. Long-term prediction of the Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Bookhagen, Bodo; Kurths, Juergen

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here, we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions - tipping elements of the monsoon - and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis, but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset two weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El-Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  7. Methodology for predicting long-term fuel-cell performance from short-term testing. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, D.; Farooque, M.; Maru, H.; Ware, C.

    1981-08-01

    The objective of this program was to develop a methodology for predicting long-term fuel cell performance from short-term testing, utilizing a perturbation testing technique. The technique applies small changes of predetermined levels in a predetermined sequence to the operating variables such that the decay mechanisms are not altered. This technique was tested on the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC), because this technology is approaching a mature stage. The initial series of perturbation tests appear to be reasonably successful and a methodology is now available for further refinements. The progress made during the study is detailed.

  8. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    The properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally in simulated space environments in order to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. Graphite-epoxy composites were exposed to thermal cycling. Adhesive foam tapes were subjected to a vacuum environment. Metal-matrix composites were tested for baseline data. Predictive modeling designed to include strength and aging effects on composites, polymeric films, and metals under such space conditions (including the atomic oxygen environment) is discussed. The Korel 8031-00 high strength adhesive foam tape was shown to be superior to the other two tested.

  9. Long-Term Predictive and Construct Validity of Two Traditional Predictors of Law School Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Donald E.

    1982-01-01

    The relative contribution of undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) and the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) to predicting academic performance in each of three years of law school was investigated. The LSAT makes its greatest contribution in early years and UGPA in later years. (Author/BW)

  10. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  11. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials, second phase

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    Changes in the functional properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally as a function of simulated space environments and to use such data to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. The effects of changed particle irradiations on candidate space materials are evaluated.

  12. The Effects of Demography and Long-Term Selection on the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction with Sequence Data

    PubMed Central

    MacLeod, Iona M.; Hayes, Ben J.; Goddard, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as “genomic selection” in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (Ne) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized Ne with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large Ne, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing Ne population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction. PMID:25233989

  13. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome. PMID:27418297

  14. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb2 +) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV = ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb2+, considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, and K+) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca2 + for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV = 250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  15. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater.

    PubMed

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb(2+)) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV=ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb(2+), considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+)) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca(2+) for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV=250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers. PMID:25863218

  16. Planetary Space Weather: Long term prediction based on observations of hidden sunspot development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, W.; Quémerais, E.; Kyrölä, E.

    2014-04-01

    Space weather phenomena at the Earth or other planets are caused by activities on the solar surface. These are accompanied by intensified Lyman alpha radiation which can be used to monitor active solar regions even when they move behind the Sun as seen from Earth. Using the Lyman alpha mapper SWAN on SOHO one can follow the development of these active regions and thereby predict their state long before they re-appear around the limb of the Sun. This information can be used to prepare for possible adverse effects on infrastructures up to 15 days before the solar wind particles start interacting with the near-Earth environment. In a similar way the space weather situation can be predicted for the environment around other planets in the Solar system.

  17. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  18. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  19. Endothelial Progenitor Cells Predict Long-Term Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Chien-Lin; Leu, Jyh-Gang; Liu, Wen-Chih; Zheng, Cai-Mei; Lin, Yuh-Feng; Shyu, Jia-Fwu; Wu, Chia-Chao; Lu, Kuo-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Background: The endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) dysfunction is a critical event in the initiation of atherosclerotic plaque development and the level of circulating EPCs can be considered a biomarker of cardiovascular events. The level and functional change in EPCs has been investigated in hemodialysis patients, but the effect of absolute number of EPCs on risk of death has not yet been explored. We hypothesized that the number of EPCs predicted death from cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients. Methods: We evaluate the association between endothelial progenitor cells and clinical outcome in 154 patients on maintenance hemodialysis. The blood sample was drawn at the time of patient enrollment and EPCs were identified by flow cytometry using triple staining for CD34/CD133/KDR. Results: The median duration of follow-up was 4.19 years. There were 79 (51.3%) deaths during the follow-up period, 41 of whom died due to a confirmed cardiovascular cause. The cumulative survival was greater in the high-EPC group than the low-EPC group for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Decreased EPCs levels were associated with a significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, gender, current smokers, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension. Conclusions: The level of circulating EPCs independently predicts the clinical outcome in patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Thus, the EPCs levels may be a useful predictive tool for evaluating the risk of death in maintenance hemodialysis patients. PMID:26941585

  20. Oxidative stress predicts long-term resight probability and reproductive success in Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea).

    PubMed

    Costantini, David; Dell'Omo, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A major challenge in conservation physiology is to find out biomarkers that reliably reflect individual variation in wear and tear. Recent work has suggested that biomarkers of oxidative stress may provide an additional tool to assess the health state of individuals and to predict fitness perspectives. In this study, we assessed whether three biomarkers of plasma oxidative status predicted the following factors: (i) the resight probability as breeder in the next seasons; and (ii) the cumulative reproductive output over multiple years in Scopoli's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) using a 7 year individual-based data set. Our results show that shearwaters having higher levels of a marker of oxidative damage (reactive oxygen metabolites) in 2008 had a lower resight probability in the next years and a lower number of chicks raised from 2008 to 2014. In contrast, two biomarkers of antioxidant defences (non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity of plasma and thiols) did not have any predictive value. Increased concentrations of plasma reactive oxygen metabolites, together with the significant individual repeatability over time in this metric of oxidative stress found in numerous studies, suggest that this metric might serve as a blood-derived biomarker for health and fitness perspectives in birds and, possibly, also in other taxa. PMID:27293709

  1. Long term prediction of roll phase for an undisturbed spinning spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, M. A.; Dyer, J. W.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the attitude control of the Pioneer 10 spacecraft since the loss of the sun-sensor signal in late 1983. It is necessary to control the attitude of the spin-stablized spacecraft so as to maintain communications with earth. Roll phase is calculated on earth using data from a science instrument on-board Pioneer 10, the imaging-photopolarimeter, which, along with its other functions, was designed to collect images of Jupiter during encounter in 1973. With calculation of instantaneous roll phase performed only once per week, the spacecraft roll angle can be predicted more than a week ahead for timing reorientation impulses. Attitude reorientation maneuvers based on roll phase predictions have been successfully executed for several years on Pioneer 10. Of 10 maneuvers analyzed in this paper, predictions were made for as many as 10 days in the future based on a roll-phase measurements spanning only 12 days of data. The average maneuver was planned by projecting the roll phase for 3 days (22,000 spacecraft revolutions) and resulted in a maneuver execution phase error of only 11 deg.

  2. Oxidative stress predicts long-term resight probability and reproductive success in Scopoli's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea)

    PubMed Central

    Costantini, David; Dell'Omo, Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A major challenge in conservation physiology is to find out biomarkers that reliably reflect individual variation in wear and tear. Recent work has suggested that biomarkers of oxidative stress may provide an additional tool to assess the health state of individuals and to predict fitness perspectives. In this study, we assessed whether three biomarkers of plasma oxidative status predicted the following factors: (i) the resight probability as breeder in the next seasons; and (ii) the cumulative reproductive output over multiple years in Scopoli’s shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) using a 7 year individual-based data set. Our results show that shearwaters having higher levels of a marker of oxidative damage (reactive oxygen metabolites) in 2008 had a lower resight probability in the next years and a lower number of chicks raised from 2008 to 2014. In contrast, two biomarkers of antioxidant defences (non-enzymatic antioxidant capacity of plasma and thiols) did not have any predictive value. Increased concentrations of plasma reactive oxygen metabolites, together with the significant individual repeatability over time in this metric of oxidative stress found in numerous studies, suggest that this metric might serve as a blood-derived biomarker for health and fitness perspectives in birds and, possibly, also in other taxa. PMID:27293709

  3. Long-term Creep Behavior (1928-2002) of the Hayward Fault at Depth in the Claremont Water Tunnel, Berkeley, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cain, W. J.; Hampton, J. L.

    2003-12-01

    The Claremont Tunnel, a nine foot horseshoe shaped water tunnel conveying up to 175 million gallons per day (mgd) of treated drinking water to 800,000 residents on the east side of San Francisco Bay, crosses the Hayward Fault approximately 850 feet from the west portal of the tunnel. Creep along the fault has offset the tunnel at a depth of about 130 feet below the ground surface. Completed in 1928, the tunnel has undergone two inspections (1966 and 2002) in which detailed survey measurements have been made of the creep movements of the fault. There have been few opportunities to secure creep measurements below the ground surface. This paper will present the results of the two surveys showing the creep that has occurred at a depth of 130 feet and give time-based creep rates based on survey measurements. It will compare these measured creep rates with the tectonic creep model developed by NOAA. Due to the large time interval between the two surveys, surveying technology has dramatically changed. A discussion of the techniques used in each survey will be presented with discussions of how current technology compares with historical methods and what impact this has on the results.

  4. Evaluation and prediction of long term space environmental effects on non-metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepic, J. A.

    1980-01-01

    The effects of prolonged spacecraft materials were determined and the results compared with predicted behavior. The adhesion and dielectric properties of poly-thermaleze and therm-amid magnet wire insulation were studied. The tensile properties of Lexan, polyurethane, polyethelyne, lucite, and nylon were studied well as the flexure and tensile characteristic of Adlock 851, a phenolic laminate. The volume resistivity of Cho-seal, a conductive elastomer was also a examined. Tables show the time exposed at thermal vacuum, and the high, low, and average MPA and KSI.

  5. Predicting long-term disability in low back injured workers presenting to a spine consultant.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, T R; Spratt, K F; Lehmann, K K

    1993-06-15

    Low back pain (LBP) is the most common, costly, and disabling musculoskeletal condition. Although most LBP patients recover within two months, 2-3% eventually develop disabling chronic low back pain (DCLBP). Due to the prevalence of DCLBP problems, models have been developed to predict which acute low back pain patients are predisposed to the problems associated with this condition. Many see the development of these models as a first step that must be taken before useful approaches for containing and reducing the problem can be conceptualized, implemented, and tested. A recent publication by Cats-Baril and Frymoyer considered this specific problem. While the results of their study indicate considerable success in predicting DCLBP patients, the high prediction rates they obtained may be spurious because of the characteristics of their sampled patient population in conjunction with some of the predictors they found useful in identifying DCLBP patients. The purpose of the present study was to focus on the crucial patient population (i.e., acute LBP patients who perceive their problem as work-related and who have been unable to work for more than two but less than six weeks), and evaluate the ability of various personal, medical, occupational, and psychological factors to predict predisposition to DCLBP. Fifty-five patients referred by occupational physicians were evaluated and followed successfully for at least 6 months. Patients in the study were given a physical examination that included Spratt et al's assessment of pain behavior. They were then asked to fill out an extensive battery of self-report questionnaires, addressing issues associated with personal demographics, health history, work requirements, job satisfaction, injury information, and pain/function factors. At the 6-month follow-up, a structured telephone interview was used to obtain outcome information regarding patient status, including ability to return to work and general outcomes of treatment

  6. Prediction of long-term radiation kinetics of transmission spectra of commerical optical glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusarov, Andrei I.; Doyle, Dominic B.; Fruit, Michel; Kinet, Damien P.

    2002-09-01

    We analyze the applicability of a number of exponent-type phenomenological kinetics for transmission degradation prediction in commercial optical glasses during and after irradiation. The analysis is based on post-radiation transmission measurements over a 5 years time interval of a commercial boro-silicate glass (BK7, Schott). A conclusion is drawn that the choice should be made between the stretched-exponential and the multi-exponential functions. We apply those kinetics to simulate kinetics of BK7 glass transmission spectra subject to Co60 gamma-radiation in the framework of the previously developed phenomenological model. Calculated transmission spectra agree well with our experimental data.

  7. Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on non metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papazian, H.

    1985-01-01

    Predictive modeling of environmental conditions on nonmetallic materials was studied. The in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with carbon and osmium, the laboratory and in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with polymeric films and the effect of electron irradiation on the rates of oxidation are discussed. No information is found that can be used to model such effects on composites. The effects of the space environment on thermal control coatings and its effect on the space station are examined.

  8. Significance of certain rustler aquifer parameters for predicting long-term radiation doses from WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Wofsy, C

    1980-09-01

    This report considers some aspects of the radionuclide transport modeling presented in documents published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) regarding the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) nuclear waste repository proposed for development in Southeastern New Mexico. The radionuclide transport modeling is used to predict worst possible consequences of a WIPP repository breach event in which waste enters groundwater. The aim of this report is to determine whether plausible changes in the parameters used by DOE to describe the flow of groundwater near the WIPP site could result in: (a) significantly faster radionuclide movement in groundwater; and (b) significantly higher concentrations of radionuclides in Pecos River water and correspondingly higher radiation doses than predicted by DOE. The conclusion reached is that while plausible changes in hydrologic conditions and waste-rock interactions might result in a significant reduction in the time it takes for radionuclides to reach the Pecos River, the shorter travel times do not result in significant increases in the estimated concentrations of radionuclides in the Pecos River nor in the radiation doses associated with the use of such water. Other ways in which parameter changes might affect these concentrations and doses are mentioned in the Conclusions section of the report, but are not the subject of this analysis.

  9. Predicting sample lifetimes in creep fracture of heterogeneous materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koivisto, Juha; Ovaska, Markus; Miksic, Amandine; Laurson, Lasse; Alava, Mikko J.

    2016-08-01

    Materials flow—under creep or constant loads—and, finally, fail. The prediction of sample lifetimes is an important and highly challenging problem because of the inherently heterogeneous nature of most materials that results in large sample-to-sample lifetime fluctuations, even under the same conditions. We study creep deformation of paper sheets as one heterogeneous material and thus show how to predict lifetimes of individual samples by exploiting the "universal" features in the sample-inherent creep curves, particularly the passage to an accelerating creep rate. Using simulations of a viscoelastic fiber bundle model, we illustrate how deformation localization controls the shape of the creep curve and thus the degree of lifetime predictability.

  10. Computer program for predicting creep behavior of bodies of revolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, R.; Greenbaum, G.

    1971-01-01

    Computer program, CRAB, uses finite-element method to calculate creep behavior and predict steady-state stresses in an arbitrary body of revolution subjected to a time-dependent axisymmetric load. Creep strains follow a time hardening law and a Prandtl-Reuss stress-strain relationship.

  11. The Ozone Hole - from today's observations to long-term predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Hobe, M.; Reconcile Science Team

    2010-12-01

    The effects of the Montreal Protocol will very likely result in ozone recovery during the next few decades. In the long run, climate change and possible geoengineering ventures to mitigate climate change may radically alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to these changes and the future evolution of Arctic ozone, a complete and correct representation of all relevant processes is necessary. Using a comprehensive approach of laboratory experiments, field observations, microphysical and chemical transport modeling as well as data assimilation, the EU project RECONCILE aims to produce reliable parameterizations of the key processes in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion and bridge them to a large scale chemistry climate model (CCM). We will present a compact overview of the project activities and the highlights of the extensive field campaign with the high-flying aircraft M55-Geophysica from Kiruna, Sweden, in the cold Arctic winter 2009/10.

  12. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    PubMed

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  13. Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, Kenneth J.

    2001-01-01

    Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss

  14. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  15. From Gaged to Ungaged- Predicting Long-term Environmental Flows, and Ecosystems Responses.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, A.; Adams, S. K.; Stein, E. D.; Mazor, R.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Modern management needs, such as water supply, quality, and ecosystem protection place numerous demands on instream flows. Many regions are interested in developing numeric flow criteria as a way of ensuring maintenance of flow patterns that protect biological resources while meeting other demands. Developing flow criteria requires the capacity to generate reliable time series of the daily flow at any stream reach of interest and to relate flow patterns to biological indicators of stream health. Most stream reaches are not gaged, and it is impractical to develop detailed models for all reaches where flow alteration needs to be evaluated. We present a novel mechanistic approach to efficiently predict flows and flow alteration at all ungaged stream locations within a region of interest. We used an "ensemble approach" whereby a series of regionally representative models were developed and calibrated. New sites of interest are assigned to one of the ensemble models based on similarity of catchment properties. For southern California, we selected 43 gaged sites representing the range of geomorphology, and watershed characteristics of streams in the region. For each gaged site, we developed a hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) to predict daily flows for a period representing dry, wet and normal precipitation. The final goal is to relate flow alterations to ecological responses, the models were calibrated to three separate performance metrics that reflect conditions important for instream biological communities- proportion of low flow days, flashiness and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for overall model performance. We cross-validated the models using a "jack-knife" approach. Models were assigned to novel 840 bioassessment sites based on the results of a Random Forest model that identified catchment properties that most affected the runoff patterns. Daily flow data for existing and "reference conditions" was simulated for a 23-year period for current and reference (undeveloped

  16. Prediction at long-term condyle screw fixation of temporomandibular joint implant: A numerical study.

    PubMed

    Ramos, A; Duarte, R J; Mesnard, M

    2015-05-01

    The fixation of commercial temporomandibular joint (TMJ) implant is accomplished by using screws, which, in some cases, can lead to loosening of the implant. The aim of this study was to predict the evolution of fixation success of a TMJ. Numerical models using a Christensen TMJ implant were developed to analyze strain distributions in the adjacent mandibular bone. The geometry of a human mandible was developed based on computed tomography (CT) scans from a cadaveric mandible on which a TMJ implant was subsequently placed. In this study, the five most important muscle forces acting were applied and the anatomical conditions replicated. The evolution of fixation was defined according to bone response methodology focused in strain distribution around the screws. Strain and micromotions were analyzed to evaluate implant stability, and the evolution process conduct at three different stages: start with all nine screws in place (initial stage); middle stage, with three screws removed (middle stage), and end stage, with only three screws in place (final stage). With regard to loosening, the implant success fixation changed the strains in the bone between 21% and 30%, when considering the last stage. The most important screw positions were #1, #7, and #9. It was observed that, despite the commercial Christensen TMJ implant providing nine screw positions for fixation, only three screws were necessary to ensure implant stability and fixation success. PMID:25819477

  17. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    PubMed

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change. PMID:24145400

  18. Do prostatic biopsies 12 months or more after external irradiation for adenocarcinoma, stage III, predict long-term survival

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, J.D.; Kline, R.W.

    1983-03-01

    Serial biopsies of the prostate after high dose external irradiation for adenocarcinoma show a gradual disappearance of the neoplastic cells. With such treatment, results of the biopsies do not have any short term prognostic significance. However, positive biopsies 12 months or more after treatment are reputed to be an unfavorable sign for long-term survival. From August, 1970 through February, 1974, 45 consecutive patients with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the prostate underwent external irradiation with 2 MV X rays or cobalt-60 teletherapy. The center of the prostate received a total dose of 70 Gy in 30-37 fractions in 43 to 56 days. With a median follow-up of 8 years, the actuarial survival rates, uncorrected for death from intercurrent disease, are 69% at 5 years and 49% at 10 years. Biopsies of the prostate 12 months or more after treatment were available from 31 patients; 19 had one or more positive biopsies. Prostatic biopsies obtained 24 months or more after treatment were available from 21 patients: 10 had positive and 11 had negative biopsies; the survival curves are identical for those with and without residual cancer cells. Following adequate irradiation of patients with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the prostate, the results of biopsies obtained one or two years after treatment do not predict long-term survival.

  19. Predictions of Long-Term Radionuclide Transport at Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, D. M.; Parashar, R.; Pohlmann, K. F.; LaBolle, E. M.; Zhang, Y.; Russell, C. E.; Chapman, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    Rainier Mesa, a tuffaceous plateau on the Nevada National Security Site, has been the location of numerous subsurface nuclear tests conducted in a series of tunnel complexes located approximately 400 m below the top of the mesa and 400 m above the regional groundwater flow system. The tunnels were constructed near the middle of an 800 m Tertiary sequence of faulted, low-permeability welded and non-welded bedded, vitric, and zeolitized tuff units. Water levels from wells in the vicinity of both the N- and T-tunnel complexes indicate the presence of two saturated zones. The first saturated zone has an elevation of approximately 1800 m (300 mbgs) and is located 100 m above the T-tunnel complex. Water level measurements during well construction and borehole moisture profiles of matrix saturation suggest this upper zone of saturation extends downward through most of the Tertiary sequence, though data is not available for the lowest Tertiary units. The second saturated zone is located at an elevation of 1300 m (800 mbgs) within a thrust sheet of Paleozoic carbonates and may be hydraulically connected to the Death Valley regional flow system. This study evaluates the potential for downward radionuclide transport associated with six underground tests at the T-tunnel complex over a 1000 year period. A dual-permeability (DKM) model containing spatially discontinuous fault networks within low-permeability tuff units is utilized to simulate complex patterns of variably-saturated flow. A modified random walk particle tracking code for DKM velocity fields is then used to compute radionuclide breakthrough at the regional water table (second saturated zone). Results include calibration of a variably-saturated model to field observations including water discharge history at the tunnel portal, variably-saturated fault fields, water levels in perched intervals and differential saturations in the volcanics and carbonates; and predictions of radionuclide breakthrough at the regional

  20. Model-based prediction of the acute and long-term safety profile of naproxen in rats

    PubMed Central

    Sahota, Tarjinder; Sanderson, Ian; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose Despite the increasing importance of biomarkers as predictors of drug effects, toxicology protocols continue to rely on the experimental evidence of adverse events (AEs) as a basis for establishing the link between indicators of safety and drug exposure. Furthermore, biomarkers may facilitate the translation of findings from animals to humans. Combined with a model-based approach, biomarker data have the potential to predict long-term effects arising from prolonged drug exposure. Here, we used naproxen as a paradigm to explore the feasibility of a biomarker-guided approach for the prediction of long-term AEs in humans. Experimental Approach An experimental toxicology protocol was set up for evaluating the effects of naproxen in rats, in which four active doses were tested (7.5, 15, 40 and 80 mg·kg−1). In addition to AE monitoring and histology, a few blood samples were also collected for the assessment of drug exposure, TXB2 and PGE2 levels. Non-linear mixed effects modelling was used to analyse the data and identify covariate factors on the incidence and severity of AEs. Key Results Modelling results showed that besides drug exposure, maximum PGE2 inhibition and treatment duration were also predictors of gastrointestinal ulceration. Although PGE2 levels were clearly linked to the incidence rates, it appeared that ulceration severity is better predicted by measures of drug exposure. Conclusions and Implications These results show that the use of a model-based approach provides the opportunity to integrate pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and toxicity data, enabling optimization of the design, analysis and interpretation of toxicology experiments. PMID:25884765

  1. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy. Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer. We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups. Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212–1.869, P <0.001), old age, male sex, high body mass index, medical comorbidity, total gastrectomy, and combined resection to be independent predictors of postoperative complications. Among these, only low PNI (OR = 4.279, 95% CI = 1.760–10.404, P = 0.001) and medical comorbidity were independent predictors of postoperative mortality. For long-term outcomes, low PNI was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival, but not recurrence (overall survival: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.383, 95% CI = 1.221–1.568, P < 0.001; recurrence-free survival: HR = 1.142, 95% CI = 0.985–1.325, P = 0.078). PNI can be used to predict patients at increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although PNI was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival, the index was not associated with cancer recurrence. PMID:27149460

  2. Simple Model Representations of Transport in a Complex Fracture and Their Effects on Long-Term Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Doughty, Christine; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Doughty, Christine; Uchida, Masahiro

    2007-11-07

    simple models can be calibrated to reproduce the peak arrival time and height of the complex-fracture-model BTCs, but the overall match remains quite poor. Using simple models with short-term SC-calibrated parameters for long-term calculations causes order-of-magnitude errors in tracer BTCs: peak arrival time is 10-100 times too late, and peak height is 50-300 times too small. On the other hand, using simple models with laboratory-measured properties of unfractured rock samples for 10,000-year calculations results in peak arrivals and heights up to a factor of 50 too early and large, respectively. The actual magnitudes of the errors made by using the simple models depend on the parameter values assumed for the complex fracture model, but in general, simple models are not expected to provide reliable long-term predictions. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how to improve long-term prediction calculations.

  3. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  4. Cross-regional prediction of long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laudon, Hjalmar; Buttle, Jim; Carey, Sean K.; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Shanley, Jamie; Soulsby, Chris; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2012-09-01

    There is no scientific consensus about how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters is regulated. Here we combine recent literature data from 49 catchments with detailed stream and catchment process information from nine well established research catchments at mid- to high latitudes to examine the question of how climate controls stream water DOC. We show for the first time that mean annual temperature (MAT) in the range from -3° to +10° C has a strong control over the regional stream water DOC concentration in catchments, with highest concentrations in areas ranging between 0° and +3° C MAT. Although relatively large deviations from this model occur for individual streams, catchment topography appears to explain much of this divergence. These findings suggest that the long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change may be more predictable than previously thought.

  5. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive-compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Joseph; Feusner, Jamie D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD): improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access - prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. PMID:26229514

  6. Use of Authentic, Integrated Dental Implant Components Vital to Predictability and Successful Long-Term Clinical Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hurson, Steve

    2016-07-01

    The accepted requirements for achieving long-term maintenance and performance of implant treatments include properly matched implant system components, a precise fit and connection between the abutment and implant, and appropriate preload. Satisfying these requisites can be predictably achieved when authentic and suitably compatible components that are engineered and marketed as an integrated implant system are placed. To the contrary, intermixing third-party or aftermarket implant components could result in unpredictable sequelae that negatively affect implant treatment outcomes. Because implant manufacturers strive to balance and integrate all aspects of implant system design (eg, abutment, implant, connections), dentists should understand how and why individual implant component characteristics (eg, fatigue strength, fracture resistance) affect the strength and integrity of the overall implant complex. PMID:27548397

  7. D-dimer for prediction of long-term outcome in cryptogenic stroke patients with patent foramen ovale.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Dae; Song, Dongbeom; Nam, Hyo Suk; Lee, Kijeong; Yoo, Joonsang; Hong, Geu-Ru; Lee, Hye Sun; Nam, Chung Mo; Heo, Ji Hoe

    2015-08-31

    Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a potential cause of cryptogenic stroke, given the possibility of paradoxical embolism from venous to systemic circulation. D-dimer level is used to screen venous thrombosis. We investigated the risk of embolism and mortality according to the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke patients. A total of 570 first-ever cryptogenic stroke patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography were included in this study. D-dimer was assessed using latex agglutination assay during admission. The association of long-term outcomes with the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels was investigated. PFO was detected in 241 patients (42.3 %). During a mean 34.0 ± 22.8 months of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 58 (10.2 %) patients, ischaemic stroke in 33 (5.8 %), and pulmonary thromboembolism in 6 (1.1 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was an independent predictor for recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with PFO (hazard ratio 5.341, 95 % confidence interval 1.648-17.309, p=0.005), but not in those without PFO. However, in patients without PFO, a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was independently related with all-cause mortality. The risk of pulmonary thromboembolism tended to be high in patients with high D-dimer levels, regardless of PFO. Elevated D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke were predictive of the long-term outcome, which differed according to the presence of PFO. The coexistence of PFO and a high D-dimer level increased the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke. The D-dimer test in cryptogenic stroke patients may be useful for predicting outcomes and deciding treatment strategy. PMID:25994249

  8. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-05-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  9. Rationalization of Creep Data of Creep-Resistant Steels on the Basis of the New Power Law Creep Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Q.; Yang, M.; Song, X. L.; Jia, J.; Xiang, Z. D.

    2016-07-01

    The conventional power law creep equation (Norton equation) relating the minimum creep rate to creep stress and temperature cannot be used to predict the long-term creep strengths of creep-resistant steels if its parameters are determined only from short-term measurements. This is because the stress exponent and activation energy of creep determined on the basis of this equation depend on creep temperature and stress and these dependences cannot be predicted using this equation. In this work, it is shown that these problems associated with the conventional power law creep equation can be resolved if the new power law equation is used to rationalize the creep data. The new power law creep equation takes a form similar to the conventional power law creep equation but has a radically different capability not only in rationalizing creep data but also in predicting the long-term creep strengths from short-term test data. These capabilities of the new power law creep equation are demonstrated using the tensile strength and creep test data measured for both pipe and tube grades of the creep-resistant steel 9Cr-1.8W-0.5Mo-V-Nb-B (P92 and T92).

  10. Research on dynamic creep strain and settlement prediction under the subway vibration loading.

    PubMed

    Luo, Junhui; Miao, Linchang

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to explore the dynamic characteristics and settlement prediction of soft soil. Accordingly, the dynamic shear modulus formula considering the vibration frequency was utilized and the dynamic triaxial test conducted to verify the validity of the formula. Subsequently, the formula was applied to the dynamic creep strain function, with the factors influencing the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soft soil being analyzed. Meanwhile, the variation law of dynamic stress with sampling depth was obtained through the finite element simulation of subway foundation. Furthermore, the improved dynamic creep strain curve of soil layer was determined based on the dynamic stress. Thereafter, it could to estimate the long-term settlement under subway vibration loading by norms. The results revealed that the dynamic shear modulus formula is straightforward and practical in terms of its application to the vibration frequency. The values predicted using the improved dynamic creep strain formula closed to the experimental values, whilst the estimating settlement closed to the measured values obtained in the field test. PMID:27536535

  11. Creep-rupture behavior of candidate Stirling engine alloys after long-term aging at 760 deg C in low-pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Titran, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    Nine candidate Stirling automotive engine alloys were aged at 760 C for 3500 hr in low pressure hydrogen or argon to determine the resulting effects on mechanical behavior. Candidate heater head tube alloys were CG-27, W545, 12RN72, INCONEL-718, and HS-188 while candidate cast cylinder-regenerator housing alloys were SA-F11, CRM-6D, XF-818, and HS-31. Aging per se is detrimental to the creep rupture and tensile strengths of the iron base alloys. The presence of hydrogen does not significantly contribute to strength degradation. Based percent highway driving cycle; CG-27 has adequate 3500 hr - 870 C creep rupture strength and SA-Fll, CRM-6D, and XF-818 have adequate 3500 hr - 775 C creep rupture strength.

  12. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury. PMID:16903128

  13. Technique for selecting the functions of the constitutive equations of creep and long-term strength with one scalar damage parameter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsov, E. B.; Leonov, S. S.

    2016-03-01

    The strain-strength characteristics of aerostructures made of hardening materials under uniaxial tension in creep conditions are determined. The problem is reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations of the kinetic theory of creep with one scalar damage parameter. The approximate solutions of the problem are obtained with the help of the implicit Euler method and of the arc length method in combination with the explicit methods of the Runge-Kutta family for cylindrical St.45 steel samples and 3V titanium alloy plates.

  14. Change in high-temperature strength properties of 12Kh1MF steel in long-term loading under creep conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Shron, R.Z.; Mints, I.I.; Shul`gina, N.G.

    1995-01-01

    Stress-rupture strength tests were made of metal steam pipe (12Kh1MF steel) in various conditions, the original, after aging under laboratory conditions (580{degrees}C, 10,000 h), and after long service. It was shown that the more the steel is hardened by heat treatment or cold plastic working in the original condition, the less it hardens in creep. It was established that softening in creep of steel with a moderate yield strength is caused primarily by aging and with a high yield strength by pore formation.

  15. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction, and implementation. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1997-09-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used to treat volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make biofilters ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity and the ability to regenerate biofilter activity. As part of this effort, the authors will provide a deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and will extend this engineering approach and developed mathematical models to two additional systems of high-priority environmental management (EM) relevance-direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and TCE (trichioroethylene), respectively. Preliminary results indicate that the author can control overgrowth of the biofilm while sustaining high degradation rates and develop basic predictive models that elucidate mass transfer and kinetic limitations in this system for alkanes. The alkanes are degraded into CO, and waterwith minimal biomass (due to the methodology proposed). This system will be used to test and model additional supplemental nutrient feeding strategies as well as methods to increase the fundamental driving forces by modification of the system. Models will be extended to non-steady-state, long-term operation. The author will examine the nature of the mixed microbial community in the VOC-degrading biofilm and test for new degradative activities. He will use cosolvents with surfactant properties to enhance hydrocarbon solubility in the biofilm and evaluate their impact on mass transfer and reaction rate in an

  16. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    PubMed

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  17. Predicting plant uptake and toxicity of lead (Pb) in long-term contaminated soils from derived transfer functions.

    PubMed

    Kader, Mohammed; Lamb, Dane T; Mahbub, Khandaker Rayhan; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

    2016-08-01

    Regulatory assessment of lead (Pb) in contaminated soils is still expressed primarily as total Pb concentrations in soil. In this study, we estimated effective concentrations (ECx) of Pb to Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber) focusing primarily on pore-water Pb data from 10 different soils after 12 weeks ageing. Phytotoxicity expressed in terms of Pb(2+) was observed to occur in the nanomolar range in neutral to alkaline soils (EC50 values 90 to 853 nM) and micromolar levels for acidic soils (EC50 values 7.35 to 9.66 μM). Internal Pb concentrations relating to toxicity (PT50) in roots and shoots also decreased with increasing pore-water pH (R (2) = 0.52 to 0.53). From a series of dose-response studies, we developed transfer functions predicting Pb uptake in C. sativa and we validated these functions with long-term Pb contaminated soils. The significant independent parameters were pore-water Pb(2+) and dissolved Pb plus dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The observed RMSE for the Pb-DOC model and Pb(2+) were 2.6 and 8.8, respectively. The Pb-DOC model tended to under-predict Pb, whilst Pb(2+) tended to over-predict accumulation despite reasonable RMSE values. Further validation is needed in soils with higher pore-water Pb solubility. PMID:27117154

  18. Long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity daily time series using singular spectrum analysis and fuzzy descriptor models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirmomeni, M.; Kamaliha, E.; Shafiee, M.; Lucas, C.

    2009-09-01

    Of the various conditions that affect space weather, Sun-driven phenomena are the most dominant. Cyclic solar activity has a significant effect on the Earth, its climate, satellites, and space missions. In recent years, space weather hazards have become a major area of investigation, especially due to the advent of satellite technology. As such, the design of reliable alerting and warning systems is of utmost importance, and international collaboration is needed to develop accurate short-term and long-term prediction methodologies. Several methods have been proposed and implemented for the prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices, but problems in predicting the exact time and magnitude of such catastrophic events still remain. There are, however, descriptor systems that describe a wider class of systems, including physical models and non-dynamic constraints. It is well known that the descriptor system is much tighter than the state-space expression for representing real independent parametric perturbations. In addition, the fuzzy descriptor models as a generalization of the locally linear neurofuzzy models are general forms that can be trained by constructive intuitive learning algorithms. Here, we propose a combined model based on fuzzy descriptor models and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) (FD/SSA) to forecast a number of geomagnetic activity indices in a manner that optimizes a fuzzy descriptor model for each of the principal components obtained from singular spectrum analysis and recombines the predicted values so as to transform the geomagnetic activity time series into natural chaotic phenomena. The method has been applied to predict two solar and geomagnetic activity indices: geomagnetic aa and solar wind speed (SWS) of the solar wind index. The results demonstrate the higher power of the proposed method-- compared to other methods -- for predicting solar activity.

  19. Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2013-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

  20. Predicting Short-term Mortality and Long-term Survival of Hospitalized U.S. Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A.; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W.; Shah, Jessica P.

    2014-01-01

    Background No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short- and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a U.S. population. Methods We reviewed electronic records for patients with ALD admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the prior DF threshold of > 32. Admission and theoretical peak scores using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were calculated. Analysis models compared 5 different scoring systems. Results INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r2 = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of data showed that survival at 28 days was significantly associated with admission values for white blood cell count (p = 0.006), a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status and creatinine (p < 0.001) as well as an elevated ammonia result within 2 days of admission (p = 0.006). When peak values for MELD were included, they were the most significant predictor of short-term mortality (p < 0.001) followed by INRdf (p = 0.006 Conclusion On admission, 2 scoring systems that identify a subset of patients with severe alcoholic liver disease are able to predict > 50% mortality at 4 weeks as well as > 80% mortality at 6 months without specific treatment. PMID:24445730

  1. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  2. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Ting Hway; Nguyen, Hai V.; Chiu, Ming Terk; Chow, Khuan Yew; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lim, Gek Hsiang; Nadkarni, Nivedita Vikas; Bautista, Dianne Carrol Tan; Cheng, Jolene Yu Xuan; Loo, Lynette Mee Ann; Seow, Dennis Chuen Chai

    2015-01-01

    Background Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients. Methods Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS) of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS), co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings. Results Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001), compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.58, p = 0.005), independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not

  3. High Content Imaging of Early Morphological Signatures Predicts Long Term Mineralization Capacity of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells upon Osteogenic Induction.

    PubMed

    Marklein, Ross A; Lo Surdo, Jessica L; Bellayr, Ian H; Godil, Saniya A; Puri, Raj K; Bauer, Steven R

    2016-04-01

    Human bone marrow-derived multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells, often referred to as mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), represent an attractive cell source for many regenerative medicine applications due to their potential for multi-lineage differentiation, immunomodulation, and paracrine factor secretion. A major complication for current MSC-based therapies is the lack of well-defined characterization methods that can robustly predict how they will perform in a particular in vitro or in vivo setting. Significant advances have been made with identifying molecular markers of MSC quality and potency using multivariate genomic and proteomic approaches, and more recently with advanced techniques incorporating high content imaging to assess high-dimensional single cell morphological data. We sought to expand upon current methods of high dimensional morphological analysis by investigating whether short term cell and nuclear morphological profiles of MSCs from multiple donors (at multiple passages) correlated with long term mineralization upon osteogenic induction. Using the combined power of automated high content imaging followed by automated image analysis, we demonstrated that MSC morphology after 3 days was highly correlated with 35 day mineralization and comparable to other methods of MSC osteogenesis assessment (such as alkaline phosphatase activity). We then expanded on this initial morphological characterization and identified morphological features that were highly predictive of mineralization capacities (>90% accuracy) of MSCs from additional donors and different manufacturing techniques using linear discriminant analysis. Together, this work thoroughly demonstrates the predictive power of MSC morphology for mineralization capacity and motivates further studies into MSC morphology as a predictive marker for additional in vitro and in vivo responses. Stem Cells 2016;34:935-947. PMID:26865267

  4. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    SciTech Connect

    Toma Cajthaml; Vaclav Sasek

    2005-11-01

    Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) with pure carbon dioxide was used to obtain desorption curves of PAHs from four contaminated industrial soils. These were from a former gas works, a former tar processing plant, a former wood presentation plant, and a former gas-holder site. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 1495 to 2439 mg/kg. The desorption curves were fitted with a simple two-site model to determine the rapidly released fraction (F) representing bioavailability of PAHs. The F data obtained under various SFE pressures were compared with degradation results of a composting method applied on the soils. After composting and consequent long-term maturation, the residual PAH contaminations ranged from 4 to 36% of the original values. A possible explanation of the result variations is the different bioavailability of the pollutants. The best correlations between degradation results and F fraction were obtained applying 50{sup o}C and 300 bar. The F values gave very good agreement with degradation efficiencies and the total regression coefficients (r{sup 2}) ranged from 0.81 to 0.99. The degradation results together with bioavailable fractions appeared to be consistent with organic carbon contents in the soils and with volatile fractions of organics. The results indicate that SFE could be a rapid test to predict bioremediation results of composting of PAH-contaminated soils. 23 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  5. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.

    PubMed

    Illán, Javier Gutiérrez; Thomas, Chris D; Jones, Julia A; Wong, Weng-Keen; Shirley, Susan M; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-11-01

    Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to

  6. Creep-rupture behavior of seven iron-base alloys after long term aging at 760 deg in low pressure hydrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Witzke, W. R.; Stephens, J. R.

    1980-01-01

    Seven candidate iron-base alloys for heater tube application in the Stirling automotive engine were aged for 3500 hours at 760 C in argon and hydrogen. Aging degraded the tensile and creep-rupture properties. The presence of hydrogen during aging caused additional degradiation of the rupture strength in fine grain alloys. Based on current design criteria for the Mod 1 Stirling engine, N-155 and 19-9DL are considered the only alloys in this study with strengths adequate for heater tube service at 760 C.

  7. 14C Cycling in Lignocellulose-Amended Soils: Predicting Long-Term C Fate from Short-Term Indicators

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, Vanessa L.; Smith, Jeffery L.; Bolton, Harvey

    2006-02-01

    The degradation of recalcitrant, abundant, naturally occurring compounds such as lignocellulose is a significant component of the global C cycle. Identifying land uses that maximize the storage of this C rather than its mineralization to CO2 will aid in recommendations to offset C emissions. Furthermore, identifying simple relationships that predict which soils are most likely to store more C will aid in C management. We compared lignocellulose degradation over 8 months in contrasting soils from each of five sites across the United States. The soils were collected from a tallgrass prairie restoration (farmland, and plots restored in 1993 and 1979), the semiarid shrub-steppe (cool, moist upper slope and warm, dry lower slope soils), long-term farmland (no-till and conventional-till), and from two forest soils (loblolly pine and Douglas fir; fertilized and non-fertilized). Soils that rapidly metabolized freshly added C exploited endogenous and newly transformed C to a lesser degree over the course of the incubation (lower slope shrub-steppe, non-fertilized Douglas fir, and tallgrass prairie farmed and 1993 restorations). We also pooled the data to find a strong relationship between sand content and lignocellulose-C remaining in the soil after 8 months (R = 0.68) and also between short-term storage of lignocellulose-C (at 7 d) and lignocellulose-C remaining after 8 months (R= 0.94). To predict C storage, models of C and soil properties must be modified to reflect microbial communities. Communities in richer soils may be more competent to use native C following fresh C additions when compared with communities in poorer soils.

  8. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  9. Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gholamhoseini, Alireza

    2016-03-01

    Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

  10. Prediction of the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy by signal averaged electrocardiography

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, T; Fukunami, M; Shimonagata, T; Kumagai, K; Kim, J; Sanada, S; Ogita, H; Hori, M; Hoki, N

    1998-01-01

    Objective—To determine whether the effectiveness of long term β blocker treatment for idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy can be predicted by signal averaged electrocardiography (ECG).
Patients—31 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and without bundle branch block were included in a retrospective study and 16 in a prospective study.
Methods—A signal averaged ECG was recorded before β blocker treatment, and three variables were measured from the vector magnitude: QRS duration, root mean square voltage for the last 40 ms (RMS40), and duration of the terminal low amplitude signals (< 40 µV) (LAS40). In the retrospective study, these variables were compared among good responders (showing ⩾ 0.10 increase in ejection fraction 12 months after start of β blocker treatment) and poor responders without such improvement. The validity of the signal averaged ECG criteria for prediction of the response to β blocker treatment was examined in the prospective study.
Results—In the retrospective study, good responders (n = 16) had a shorter QRS duration (mean (SD): 122.9 (11) v 138 (14.4) ms, p < 0.005) and LAS40 (33.1 (8.9) v 42.5 (7.8) ms, p < 0.005), and a higher RMS40 (31.6 (16.3) v 19.0 (10.3) µV, p < 0.02) than poor responders (n = 15). Signal averaged ECG criteria for good response were defined as two or more of the following: QRS duration < 130 ms, RMS40 > 20 µV, LAS40 < 40 ms (sensitivity 81%, specificity 73%). In the prospective study, six of seven patients who met these criteria showed a good response to the β blocker treatment, while eight of nine who did not showed a poor response (χ2 = 6.1, p < 0.02). The signal averaged ECG criteria gave a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 89% for predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment.
Conclusions—A signal averaged ECG might be useful in predicting the effectiveness of β blocker treatment for dilated cardiomyopathy.

 Keywords: signal

  11. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  12. Impact of spotty calcification on long-term prediction of future revascularization: a prospective three-vessel intravascular ultrasound study.

    PubMed

    Tamaru, Hiroto; Fujii, Kenichi; Fukunaga, Masashi; Imanaka, Takahiro; Miki, Kojiro; Horimatsu, Tetsuo; Nishimura, Machiko; Saita, Ten; Sumiyoshi, Akinori; Shibuya, Masahiko; Naito, Yoshiro; Masuyama, Tohru

    2016-06-01

    To date, there are no prospective studies on the relationship between plaque characteristics identified by 40 MHz IVUS and future adverse events. This prospective study evaluated the relationship between plaque morphology in nonculprit nonsignificant lesions, determined by 40 MHz IVUS, and long-term clinical outcomes. Consecutively, 45 patients who underwent 3-vessel intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) examinations were prospectively enrolled. Qualitative and quantitative IVUS analyses including scoring of echogenicity for assessment of plaque characterization were performed for each nonsignificant nonculprit lesion. The number, the length, the location (superficial or deep), and maximum arc were measured for each calcium deposit within plaques. Spotty calcification was defined as calcium deposits <90° and <6 mm in length. Primary end point was defined as nonsignificant nonculprit lesion-related revascularization (NNLR) during 6 years of follow-up. A total of 163 nonsignificant nonculprit lesions with mild to moderate stenosis were identified on baseline 3-vessel IVUS. Of those 163 lesions, six lesions required NNLR during the follow-up period. There were no differences in quantitative IVUS parameters including remodeling index, plaque burden, and echogenicity between lesions requiring and not requiring NNLR. However, deep spotty calcification was more frequently identified in lesions requiring NNLR than in those not requiring NNLR (33 vs. 8 %, P = 0.02). Spotty calcium deposits identified by 40 MHz IVUS predicted the need for NNLR during a 6-year follow-up period. This finding suggests that deep spotty calcium may be a surrogate marker for plaque progression and the subsequent need for revascularization in the future. PMID:25964072

  13. Predictive Factors for Acute and Late Urinary Toxicity After Permanent Prostate Brachytherapy: Long-Term Outcome in 712 Consecutive Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Keyes, Mira Miller, Stacy; Moravan, Veronika; Pickles, Tom; McKenzie, Michael; Pai, Howard; Liu, Mitchell; Kwan, Winkle; Agranovich, Alexander; Spadinger, Ingrid; Lapointe, Vincent; Halperin, Ross; Morris, W. James

    2009-03-15

    Purpose: To describe the frequency of acute and late Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) urinary toxicity, associated predictive factors, and resolution of International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) in 712 consecutive prostate brachytherapy patients. Methods and Materials: Patients underwent implantation between 1998 and 2003 (median follow-up, 57 months). The IPSS and RTOG toxicity data were prospectively collected. The patient, treatment, and implant factors were examined for an association with urinary toxicity. The time to IPSS resolution was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves, and multivariate modeling of IPSS resolution was done using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the factors associated with urinary toxicity. Results: The IPSS returned to baseline at a median of 12.6 months. On multivariate analysis, patients with a high baseline IPSS had a quicker resolution of their IPSS. Higher prostate D90 (dose covering 90% of the prostate), maximal postimplant IPSS, and urinary retention slowed the IPSS resolution time. The rate of the actuarial 5-year late urinary (>12 months) RTOG Grade 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 32%, 36%, 24%, 6.2%, and 0.1%, respectively. At 7 years, the prevalence of RTOG Grade 0-1 was 92.5%. Patients with a larger prostate volume, greater number of needles, greater baseline IPSS, and use of hormonal therapy had more acute toxicity. On multivariate analysis, the significant predictors for late greater than or equal to RTOG toxicity 2 were a greater baseline IPSS, maximal postimplant IPSS, presence of acute toxicity, and higher prostate V150 (volume of the prostate covered by 150% of the dose). More recently implanted patients had less acute urinary toxicity and patients given hormonal therapy had less late urinary toxicity (all p < 0.02). Conclusion: Most urinary symptoms resolved within 12 months after prostate brachytherapy, and significant long-term urinary toxicity was very low

  14. Long-Term Results and Predictive Factors of Three-Dimensional Conformal Salvage Radiotherapy for Biochemical Relapse After Prostatectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Neuhof, Dirk . E-mail: dirk.neuhof@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Hentschel, Tina; Bischof, Marc; Sroka-Perez, Gabriele; Hohenfellner, Markus; Debus, Juergen

    2007-04-01

    Purpose: Salvage radiotherapy (RT) is used to treat patients with biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy (RP). Although retrospective series have demonstrated that salvage RT will result in biochemical response in approximately 75% of patients, long-term response is much lower (20-40%). The purpose of this study was to determine prognostic factors related to the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) outcome after salvage RT. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2004, 171 patients received salvage RT at University of Heidelberg. Patient age, margin status, Gleason score, tumor grading, pathologic tumor stage, pre-RP and pre-RT PSA levels, and time from RP to rise of PSA were analyzed. Results: Median follow-up time was 39 months. The 5-year overall and clinical relapse-free survival were 93.8% and 80.8%, respectively. After RT serum PSA decreased in 141 patients (82.5%). The 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival was 35.1%. Univariate analysis showed following statistically significant predictors of PSA recurrence after RT: preoperative PSA level (p = 0.035), pathologic tumor classification (p 0.001), Gleason score (p < 0.001), tumor grading (p = 0.004), and pre-RT PSA level (p = 0.031). On multivariate analysis, only Gleason score (p = 0.047) and pre-RT PSA level (p = 0.049) were found to be independently predictive of PSA recurrence. Conclusions: This study represents one of the largest retrospective studies analyzing the outcome of patients treated with salvage RT at a single institution. Our findings suggest that patients with Gleason score <7 and low pre-RT PSA levels are the best candidates for salvage RT, whereas patients with high-grade lesions should be considered for additional treatment (e.g., hormonal therapy)

  15. Predicting plasticity: acute context-dependent changes to vocal performance predict long-term age-dependent changes.

    PubMed

    James, Logan S; Sakata, Jon T

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the factors that predict and guide variation in behavioral change can lend insight into mechanisms of motor plasticity and individual differences in behavior. The performance of adult birdsong changes with age in a manner that is similar to rapid context-dependent changes to song. To reveal mechanisms of vocal plasticity, we analyzed the degree to which variation in the direction and magnitude of age-dependent changes to Bengalese finch song could be predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. Using a repeated-measures design, we found that variation in age-dependent changes to the timing, sequencing, and structure of vocal elements ("syllables") was significantly predicted by variation in context-dependent changes. In particular, the degree to which the duration of intersyllable gaps, syllable sequencing at branch points, and fundamental frequency of syllables within spontaneous [undirected (UD)] songs changed over time was correlated with the degree to which these features changed from UD song to female-directed (FD) song in young-adult finches (FDyoung). As such, the structure of some temporal features of UD songs converged over time onto the structure of FDyoung songs. This convergence suggested that the FDyoung song could serve as a stable target for vocal motor plasticity. Consequently, we analyzed the stability of FD song and found that the temporal structure of FD song changed significantly over time in a manner similar to UD song. Because FD song is considered a state of heightened performance, these data suggest that age-dependent changes could reflect practice-related improvements in vocal motor performance. PMID:26311186

  16. Role of Right Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain in Predicting Early and Long-Term Mortality in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Patients

    PubMed Central

    Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Széplaki, Gábor; Apor, Astrid; Kutyifa, Valentina; Kovács, Attila; Kosztin, Annamária; Becker, Dávid; Boros, András Mihály; Gellér, László; Merkely, Béla

    2015-01-01

    Background Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction has been associated with poor prognosis in chronic heart failure (HF). However, less data is available about the role of RV dysfunction in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We aimed to investigate if RV dysfunction would predict outcome in CRT. Design We enrolled prospectively ninety-three consecutive HF patients in this single center observational study. All patients underwent clinical evaluation and echocardiography before CRT and 6 months after implantation. We assessed RV geometry and function by using speckle tracking imaging and calculated strain parameters. We performed multivariable Cox regression models to test mortality at 6 months and at 24 months. Results RV dysfunction, characterized by decreased RVGLS (RV global longitudinal strain) [10.2 (7.0–12.8) vs. 19.5 (15.0–23.9) %, p<0.0001] and RVFWS (RV free wall strain) [15.6 (10.0–19.3) vs. 17.4 (10.5–22.2) %, p = 0.04], improved 6 months after CRT implantation. Increasing baseline RVGLS and RVFWS predicted survival independent of other parameters at 6 months [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.37 (0.15–0.90), p = 0.02 and HR = 0.42 (0.19–0.89), p = 0.02; per 1 standard deviation increase, respectively]. RVGLS proved to be a significant independent predictor of mortality at 24 months [HR = 0.53 (0.32–0.86), p = 0.01], and RVFWS showed a strong tendency [HR = 0.64 (0.40–1.00), p = 0.05]. The 24-month survival was significantly impaired in patients with RVGLS below 10.04% before CRT implantation [area under the curve = 0.72 (0.60–0.84), p = 0.002, log-rank p = 0.0008; HR = 5.23 (1.76–15.48), p = 0.003]. Conclusions Our findings indicate that baseline RV dysfunction is associated with poor short-term and long-term prognosis after CRT implantation. PMID:26700308

  17. Thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, and Creep: Part II. Life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neu, R. W.; Sehitoglu, Huseyin

    1989-09-01

    A life prediction model is developed for crack nucleation and early crack growth based on fatigue, environment (oxidation), and creep damage. The model handles different strain-temperature phasings (i.e., in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue, isothermal fatigue, and others, including nonproportional phasings). Fatigue life predictions compare favorably with experiments in 1070 steel for a wide range of test conditions and strain-temperature phasings. An oxide growth (oxide damage) model is based on the repeated microrupture process of oxide observed from microscopic measurements. A creep damage expression, which is stress-based, is coupled with a unified constitutive equation. A set of interrupted tests was performed to provide valuable damage progression information. Tests were performed in air and in helium atmospheres to isolate creep damage from oxidation damage.

  18. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Sexually Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity Versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fassler, I.R.; Amodeo, M.; Griffin, M.L.; Clay, C.M.; Ellis, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective:: Child sexual abuse (CSA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for explanations for the heterogeneous outcomes in women with CSA has led to an examination of a range of CSA-related factors, from the severity of individual CSA incidents to the…

  19. Predicting Long-Term Outcomes for Women Physically Abused in Childhood: Contribution of Abuse Severity versus Family Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffin, Margaret L.; Amodeo, Maryann

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Child physical abuse (CPA) has been associated with adverse adult psychosocial outcomes, although some reports describe minimal long-term effects. The search for the explanation for heterogeneous outcomes in women with CPA has led to an examination of a range of CPA-related factors, from the severity of CPA incidents to the childhood…

  20. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  1. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  2. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-01-01

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants <2 years of age because of their carcinogenic potential. We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial to evaluate the efficacy of TCIs as a secondary AD treatment for children <2 years of age by comparing 1% pimecrolimus cream with 0.05% desonide cream. We performed urinary metabolomics to predict long-term side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration. PMID:25491116

  3. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction and implementation. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.; Barton, J.W.

    1998-06-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used for treatment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make them ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity. As part of this effort, the author will provide deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and extend this approach and mathematical models to additional systems of high priority EM relevance--direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX and chlorinated organics. This report summarizes work after 2 years of a 3-year project. Major results are enumerated and discussed'

  4. Predictive factors of the long term outcome in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: six year follow up of 107 patients.

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, E; Ros, E; Toledo-Pimentel, V; Pujol, A; Bordas, J M; Grande, L; Pera, C

    1994-01-01

    There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived. PMID:8307456

  5. Field theory and diffusion creep predictions in polycrystalline aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villani, A.; Busso, E. P.; Forest, S.

    2015-07-01

    In polycrystals, stress-driven vacancy diffusion at high homologous temperatures leads to inelastic deformation. In this work, a novel continuum mechanics framework is proposed to describe the strain fields resulting from such a diffusion-driven process in a polycrystalline aggregate where grains and grain boundaries are explicitly considered. The choice of an anisotropic eigenstrain in the grain boundary region provides the driving force for the diffusive creep processes. The corresponding inelastic strain rate is shown to be related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. Dislocation driven deformation is then introduced as an additional mechanism, through standard crystal plasticity constitutive equations. The fully coupled diffusion-mechanical model is implemented into the finite element method and then used to describe the biaxial creep behaviour of FCC polycrystalline aggregates. The corresponding results revealed for the first time that such a coupled diffusion-stress approach, involving the gradient of the vacancy flux, can accurately predict the well-known macroscopic strain rate dependency on stress and grain size in the diffusion creep regime. They also predict strongly heterogeneous viscoplastic strain fields, especially close to grain boundaries triple junctions. Finally, a smooth transition from Herring and Coble to dislocation creep behaviour is predicted and compared to experimental results for copper.

  6. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis. PMID:27075918

  7. Lower serum potassium combined with lower sodium concentrations predict long-term mortality risk in hemodialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the combined effect of different pre-hemodialysis (HD) serum sodium (S[Na]) and potassium (S[K]) concentrations on the long-term prognosis of HD patients. Methods A cohort of 424 maintenance HD patients (age: 58 ± 13 years, male: 47%, diabetes: 39%) from a single center were divided into four groups based on both medians of S[Na] (138.4 mmol/L) and S[K] (4.4 mmol/L): Group 1: lower S[Na] & lower S[K]: n = 92; Group 2: lower S[Na] & higher S[K]: n =113; Group 3: higher S[Na] & lower S[K]: n =123; Group 4: higher S[Na] & higher S[K]: n =96. The median observation period was 21 months. Result By multivariate logistic regression analysis, Group 1 was characterized by hypoalbuminemia (OR = 0.37, 95%CI = 0.20-0.67), and lower normalized protein catabolism rate (nPCR) (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.16-0.83). In contrast, Group 4 was characterized by higher nPCR (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.05-4.86) and albumin level (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.17-4.39). As compared to the reference (group 1), the HR for long-term mortality was significantly lower in Groups 3 (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.34- 0.86) and 4 (HR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.28-0.84). By multivariate Cox proportional analysis, Group 1 was an independent factor (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.18-2.58) associated with long-term mortality. Conclusion HD patients combined with lower S[K] and lower S[Na] were characterized by hypoalbuminemia, lower nPCR and a high prevalence of co-morbidity. They were associated with long-term mortality risk. On the other hand, those patients with higher levels of S[Na] and S[K] tended to have better clinical outcomes. PMID:24305468

  8. Elevated Cardiac Troponin in Acute Stroke without Acute Coronary Syndrome Predicts Long-Term Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Bhatt, Reema; Bove, Alfred A.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Elevated cardiac troponin in acute stroke in absence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has unclear long-term outcomes. Methods. Retrospective analysis of 566 patients admitted to Temple University Hospital from 2008 to 2010 for acute stroke was performed. Patients were included if cardiac troponin I was measured and had no evidence of ACS and an echocardiogram was performed. Of 200 patients who met the criteria, baseline characteristics, electrocardiograms, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were reviewed. Patients were characterized into two groups with normal and elevated troponins. Primary end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction during follow-up period after discharge. The secondary end points were MACE and death from any cause. Results. For 200 patients, 17 patients had positive troponins. Baseline characteristics were as follows: age 63.1 ± 13.8, 64% African Americans, 78% with hypertension, and 22% with previous CVA. During mean follow-up of 20.1 months, 7 patients (41.2%) in elevated troponin and 6 (3.3%) patients in normal troponin group had nonfatal myocardial infarction (P = 0.0001). MACE (41.2% versus 14.2%, P = 0.01) and death from any cause (41.2% versus 14.5%, P = 0.017) were significant in the positive troponin group. Conclusions. Elevated cardiac troponin in patients with acute stroke and no evidence of ACS is strong predictor of long-term cardiac outcomes. PMID:25530906

  9. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  10. Prediction of successful outcome in a randomised controlled trial of the long-term efficacy of interferon alpha treatment for chronic hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Vandelli, C; Renzo, F; Braun, H B; Tisminetzky, S; Albrecht, M; De Palma, M; Ranzi, A; Di Marco, G; Stroffolini, T; Baralle, F; Ventura, E; Michel, G

    1999-05-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of a 12-month course of recombinant interferon alpha (IFN-alpha2b), and to assess predictive factors of successful response to IFN therapy in chronic active hepatitis C (HCV CAH), 242 patients with histologically proven HCV CAH were assigned randomly to two groups, one treated with IFN-alpha2b (3 MU three times weekly, intramuscularly), the other untreated. To determine the efficacy of IFN-alpha2b 12 months after therapy, a second liver biopsy was carried out on 100 treated patients and 27 untreated patients. The biochemical, virological, and serological response of patients followed up for at least 50 months after treatment was also evaluated to confirm the efficacy of IFN-alpha2b. The genotypes of infecting HCV, anti-HCV core IgM, and HCV-RNA concentrations were also analysed and the predictors of response determined by univariate and multivariate analyses. Response was defined in terms of the normalisation of aminotransferase activities and the disappearance of HCV-RNA. The overall long-term response was 39.4%. Anti-HCV core IgM levels were significantly lower in long-term responders. Patients with increased levels of IgM anti HCV core (>3.8 sample/cut-off), infected with genotype 1b were nonresponders. Liver histology improved significantly in patients with long-term response. Multivariate analysis identified three independent predictors of the likelihood of long-term response to IFN therapy: age younger than 40 years, basal anti-HCV core IgM levels < or = 3.8, and genotypes other than 1b. These data indicate that the treatment with IFN-alpha2b used in this randomised controlled trial is effective in HCV CAH. Anti-HCV core IgM was the strongest predictor of long-term response in the present study. PMID:10223542

  11. Predictive validity of the get ready to read! Screener: concurrent and long-term relations with reading-related skills.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Beth M; Lonigan, Christopher J; Wyatt, Marcy A

    2009-01-01

    This study examined concurrent and longitudinal relations for the Get Ready to Read! (GRTR) emergent literacy screener. This measure, within a battery of oral language, letter knowledge, decoding, and phonological awareness tests, was administered to 204 preschool children (mean age = 53.6, SD = 5.78; 55% male) from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds. Subgroups were reassessed at 6 months and 16 and 37 months later. Results indicate strong relations between the GRTR and the literacy and language assessments. Long-term follow-up indicated that the screener was significantly related to some reading-related measures, including decoding skills. These results support the utility of the GRTR as a brief, valid measure of children's emergent literacy skills. The GRTR holds promise as a tool useful for educators, parents, and others in regular contact with preschool children to help determine those who may be at risk for later reading difficulties and could benefit from intervention and focused instruction in emergent literacy. PMID:19074622

  12. Long-term prediction of groundwater recharge by climate changes in the Gosan agricultural area, Jeju Island of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, E. H.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluation of long-term changes in groundwater recharge due to the climate changes is needed to secure the sustainable use of grounwater. In Jeju Island, which is composed of various formations of porous volcanic rocks, groundwater is a sole resource for water supply because of its hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, preservation of the groundwater resource is an essential issue in the island. Prior to establishing a management plan for maintaining the groundwater resources in Jeju Island, long-term estimation of influencing factors are necessary. The Gosan study area is located in the western part of the island, where extensive agricultural activity has been performed and groundwater is a main source of supply for watering crops. In this study, we estimated the recharge changes for 100 years (2000~2099) in the Gosan agricultural area based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) by using the HELP3 (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) program. The estimated component of water budget in this study are as follows (averaged in 2000~2014), precipitation: 1.28x108 m3/yr; ET: 6.49x107 m3/yr; runoff: 5.84x106 m3/yr; and recharge: 5.27x107 m3/yr. Over the 100 years of the estimated period, precipitation will have a highest increase among other meteorological parameters to be 6.16x109 m3 (RCP4.5) and 6.34 x109 m3 (RCP8.5). Increase in recharge by RCP8.5 scenario (2.75 x109 m3) will be less than that by RCP4.5 (2.77x109 m3) because ET by RCP 8.5 (ET: 3.34x109 m3; runoff: 2.27x108 m3) is estimated to be higher than ET by RCP4.5 (ET: 3.15x109 m3; runoff: 2.35x108 m3). Jeju volcanic island is known to have higher recharge proportions to the precipitation due to the distributed highly porous volcanic rocks. Therefore, variations in precipitation by climate changes would greatly affect the groundwater resource of the island. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for

  13. Biochemical Response to Androgen Deprivation Therapy Before External Beam Radiation Therapy Predicts Long-term Prostate Cancer Survival Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Zelefsky, Michael J.; Gomez, Daniel R.; Polkinghorn, William R.; Pei, Xin; Kollmeier, Marisa

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the response to neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) defined by a decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to nadir values is associated with improved survival outcomes after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: One thousand forty-five patients with localized prostate cancer were treated with definitive EBRT in conjunction with neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. A 6-month course of ADT was used (3 months during the neoadjuvant phase and 2 to 3 months concurrently with EBRT). The median EBRT prescription dose was 81 Gy using a conformal-based technique. The median follow-up time was 8.5 years. Results: The 10-year PSA relapse-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 74.3%, compared with 57.7% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P<.001). The 10-year distant metastases-free survival outcome among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of ≤0.3 ng/mL was 86.1%, compared with 78.6% for patients with higher PSA nadir values (P=.004). In a competing-risk analysis, prostate cancer-related deaths were also significantly reduced among patients with pre-radiation therapy PSA nadirs of <0.3 ng/mL compared with higher values (7.8% compared with 13.7%; P=.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the pre-EBRT PSA nadir value was a significant predictor of long-term biochemical tumor control, distant metastases-free survival, and cause-specific survival outcomes. Conclusions: Pre-radiation therapy nadir PSA values of ≤0.3 ng/mL after neoadjuvant ADT were associated with improved long-term biochemical tumor control, reduction in distant metastases, and prostate cancer-related death. Patients with higher nadir values may require alternative adjuvant therapies to improve outcomes.

  14. Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long-term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Xu, Cheng-Yuan; Rastetter, Edward B; Griffin, Kevin L

    2014-06-01

    The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well-understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (RL/RD), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both RL and RD acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana, both RL and RD responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of RL and RD to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance. PMID:24677488

  15. Short term creep rupture predictions for tantalum alloy T-111

    SciTech Connect

    Stephens, J.J. )

    1991-01-01

    A knowledge of the short term creep rupture behavior of Tantalum alloy T-111 is necessary to predict device integrity in the heat source section of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) at the end of service life, in the event of a fuel fire. High pressures exist in RTGs near the end of service life, these are caused by gas generation resulting from radioactive decay of the nuclear fuel. The internal pressure exerts a significant hoop stress on the T-111 alloy structural containment member. This paper analyses the short term creep behavior (rupture times up to {similar to}2{times}10{sup 3} hrs.) of cold worked (CW) T-111 alloy, using the existing data of Stephenson (1967). Corellations for the time to rupture, time to 1% strain and minimum creep rate have been obtained from this data using multivariable linear regression analysis. These results are compared to other short term rupture data for T-111 alloy. Finally, at the stress/temperature levels relevant to the RTG fuel fire scenario near the end of service life, the rupture time correlation for T-111 alloy predicts a rupture time of approximately 100 hrs.

  16. Short term creep rupture predictions for Tantalum alloy T-3

    SciTech Connect

    Stephens, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    A knowledge of the short term creep rupture behavior of Tantalum alloy T-111 is necessary to predict device integrity in the heat source section of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG's) at the end of service life, in the event of a fuel fire. High pressures exist in RTG's near the end of service life, these are caused by gas generation resulting from radioactive decay of the nuclear fuel. The internal pressure exerts a significant hoop stress on the T-111 alloy structural containment member. This paper analyses the short term creep behavior (rupture times up to {approximately}2 {times} 10{sup 3} hrs.) of cold worked (CW) T-111 alloy, using the existing data of Stephenson (1967). Corellations for the time to rupture, time to 1% strain and minimum creep rate have been obtained from this data using multivariable linear regression analysis. These results are compared to other short term rupture data for T-111 alloy. Finally, at the stress/temperature levels relevant to the RTG fuel fire scenario near the end of service life, the rupture time correlation for T-111 alloy predicts a rupture time of approximately 100 hrs. 10 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The activities performed during the first year of the NASA HOST Program, Creep Fatigue Life Prediction for Engine Hot Section Materials (Isotropic), being conducted by Pratt & Whitney Aircraft are summarized. The program is a 5 year, two part effort aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results of the program produced thus far are discussed. Cast B1900 + Hf and wrought IN 718 were selected as the base and alternate materials, respectively. A single heat of B1900 + Hf was obtained and test specimens fabricated. The material was characterized with respect to grain size, gamma prime size, carbide distribution, and dislocation density. Monotonic tensile and creep testing has shown engineering properties within anticipated scatter for this material. Examination of the tensile tests has shown a transition from inhomogeneous planar slip within the grains at lower temperatures to more homogeneous matrix deformation. Examination of the creep tests has shown a transgranular failure mode at 1400 F and an intergranular failure mode at 1600 F and 1800 F.

  18. Acute postoperative pain predicts chronic pain and long-term analgesic requirements after breast surgery for cancer.

    PubMed

    Fassoulaki, A; Melemeni, A; Staikou, C; Triga, A; Sarantopoulos, C

    2008-01-01

    Postoperative pain and analgesic requirements may be associated with chronic pain. The aim of the study was to investigate this association. We studied 98 patients who had cancer breast surgery and served as controls in four previous studies, receiving placebo. We compared the pain and analgesic requirements 0-9 h and 1-6 days postoperatively: a) between patients with chronic pain 3 months postoperatively versus patients without and b) between those patients who consumed analgesics at home versus those who did not. Patients with chronic pain had experienced higher intensity pain at rest the first 9 postoperative hours (VAS-rest p = 0.033). Patients requiring analgesics at home had consumed postoperatively more opioids (p = 0.005) and more paracetamol (p = 0.037). These patients had experienced pain of higher intensity the first 9 postoperative hours (VAS-rest p = 0.022, VAS-movement p = 0.009) as well as during the six postoperative days (VAS-rest p = 0.013, VAS-movement p = 0.001). Higher intensities of acute postoperative pain are associated with chronic pain development. Higher analgesic needs and higher acute postoperatively pain intensity are associated with long-term analgesic consumption. PMID:19235522

  19. An alternative to fully coupled reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in complex geological systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Fully-coupled reactive transport simulations involving multiphase hydrodynamics and chemical reactions in heterogeneous settings are extremely challenging from a computational point of view. This often leads to oversimplification of the investigated system: coarse spatial discretization, to keep the number of elements in the order of few thousands; simplified chemistry, disregarding many potentially important reactions. A novel approach for coupling non-reactive hydrodynamic simulations with the outcome of single batch geochemical simulations was therefore introduced to assess the potential long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for underground CO2 storage in Germany [1],[2]. The advantage of the coupling is the ability to use multi-million grid non-reactive hydrodynamics simulations on one side and few batch 0D geochemical simulations on the other, so that the complexity of both systems does not need to be reduced. This contribution shows the approach which was taken to validate this simplified coupling scheme. The procedure involved batch simulations of the reference geochemical model, then performing both non-reactive and fully coupled 1D and 3D reactive transport simulations and finally applying the simplified coupling scheme based on the non-reactive and geochemical batch model. The TOUGHREACT/ECO2N [3] simulator was adopted for the validation. The degree of refinement of the spatial grid and the complexity and velocity of the mineral reactions, along with a cut-off value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 allowed to originate precipitates in the simplified approach were found out to be the governing parameters for the convergence of the two schemes. Systematic discrepancies between the approaches are not reducible, simply because there is no feedback between chemistry and hydrodynamics, and can reach 20 % - 30 % in unfavourable cases. However, even such discrepancy is completely acceptable, in our opinion, given the amount of

  20. Longitudinal Blood Pressure Control, Long-Term Mortality, and Predictive Utility of Serum Liver Enzymes and Bilirubin in Hypertensive Patients.

    PubMed

    McCallum, Linsay; Panniyammakal, Jeemon; Hastie, Claire E; Hewitt, Jonathan; Patel, Rajan; Jones, Gregory C; Muir, Scott; Walters, Matthew; Sattar, Naveed; Dominiczak, Anna F; Padmanabhan, Sandosh

    2015-07-01

    There is accruing evidence from general population studies that serum bilirubin and liver enzymes affect blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular risk, but it is unclear whether these have an impact on hypertensive patients in terms of long-term survival or BP control. We analyzed 12 000 treated hypertensive individuals attending a tertiary care clinic followed up for 35 years for association between baseline liver function tests and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular covariates. Generalized estimating equations were used to study the association of liver tests and follow-up BP. The total time at risk was 173 806 person years with median survival 32.3 years. Follow-up systolic BP over 5 years changed by -0.4 (alanine transaminase and bilirubin), +2.1(alkaline phosphatase), +0.9(γ-glutamyl transpeptidase) mm Hg for each standard deviation increase. Serum total bilirubin and alanine transaminase showed a significant negative association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas alkaline phosphatase and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase showed a positive association and aspartate transaminase showed a U-shapedassociation. Serum bilirubin showed an incremental improvement of continuous net reclassification improvement by 8% to 26% for 25 year and 35 year cardiovascular mortality, whereas all liver markers together improved continuous net reclassification improvement by 19% to 47% compared with reference model. In hypertensive patients, serum liver enzymes and bilirubin within 4 standard deviations of the mean show independent effects on mortality and BP control. Our findings would support further studies to elucidate the mechanisms by which liver enzymes and bilirubin may exert an effect on BP and cardiovascular risk, but there is little support for using them in risk stratification. PMID:25941342

  1. Early changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover predict the long-term response to alendronate therapy in representative elderly women: a randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, S L; Parker, R A; Ferguson, L; Rosen, H N; Maitland-Ramsey, L; Karpf, D B

    1998-09-01

    Although the antiresorptive agent alendronate has been shown to increase bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and spine and decrease the incidence of osteoporotic fractures in older women, few data are available regarding early prediction of long-term response to therapy, particularly with regard to increases in hip BMD. Examining short-term changes in biochemical markers incorporates physiologic response with therapeutic compliance and should provide useful prognostic information for patients. The objective of this study was to examine whether early changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover predict long-term changes in hip BMD in elderly women. The study was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial which took place in a community-based academic hospital. One hundred and twenty community-dwelling, ambulatory women 65 years of age and older participated in the study. Intervention consisted of alendronate versus placebo for 2.5 years. All patients received appropriate calcium and vitamin D supplementation. The principal outcome measures included BMD of the hip (total hip, femoral neck, trochanter, and intertrochanter), spine (posteroanterior [PA] and lateral), total body, and radius. Biochemical markers of bone resorption included urinary N-telopeptide cross-linked collagen type I and free deoxypyridinoline; markers of bone formation included serum osteocalcin and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase. Long-term alendronate therapy was associated with increased BMD at the total hip (4.0%), femoral neck (3.1%), trochanter (5.5%), intertrochanter (3.8%), PA spine (7.8%), lateral spine (10.6%), total body (2.2%), and one-third distal radius (1.3%) in elderly women (all p < 0.01). In the placebo group, bone density increased 1.9-2.1% at the spine (p < 0.05) and remained stable at all other sites. At 6 months, there were significant decreases in all markers of bone turnover (-10% to -53%, p < 0.01) in women on alendronate. The changes in urinary

  2. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury.

    PubMed

    Patel, Samir P; Smith, Taylor D; VanRooyen, Jenna L; Powell, David; Cox, David H; Sullivan, Patrick G; Rabchevsky, Alexander G

    2016-05-15

    The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  3. The Differential Effects of Abuse Characteristics and Attachment in the Prediction of Long-Term Effects of Sexual Abuse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Pamela C.

    1993-01-01

    Female incest survivors (n=112) completed several inventories and checklists to measure sexual abuse severity and adult attachment. Analyses indicated that sexual abuse characteristics predicted depression, intrusive thoughts, and memory avoidance. Adult attachment, particularly a lack of secure attachment, predicted memory avoidance, and also…

  4. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26751089

  5. Slow crack propagation in glass and creep prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, Celine; Fortin, Jerome; Gueguen, Yves

    2013-04-01

    The context of our study is the observation of the time-dependent deformation of cracked glass. The aim of our study is to observe the slow crack propagation, to quantify it and to predict finally the creep behavior. We performed creep experiments in compaction conditions in a triaxial cell, on cracked boro-silicate glass samples. The chemical composition of the investigated glass is very close to the composition of waste vitrified packages. The matrix of the original glass (OG) is perfectly amorphous, without porosity. A few isolated air bubbles are trapped during the glass flow. Cracks are introduced in the OG through thermal shocks. Strain and acoustic emission (AE) are recorded. Several experiments are performed at different confining pressures (15 or 25 MPa), different pore fluid conditions (with argon gas, considered as the dry case, with tap water saturated porosity, or with distilled water) and different temperatures (ambiant temperature, 50oC or 80oC). Linear increase of the volumetric strain is first observed. A dilatancy increase is recorded. Note that dilatancy does not appear in constant strain rate tests. Constant stress tests show that dilatancy develops during a time interval that depends on the stress level. In addition AE rate are recorded. A non zero AE rate is an evidence of crack propagation. We use a micro-mechanical model that gives the stress intensity factor at the crack tips. This factor depends on stress and geometrical parameters (all known). An exponential law describe the rate of crack propagation, as a function of temperature, environment and applied stresses. This model allows us to predict the creep rate in glass. Assuming a constant crack aspect ratio, crack length and volumetric strain are related. The volumetric strain rate is calculated from model and compared to the data.

  6. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons

    PubMed Central

    Farine, Damien R.; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C.

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals’ nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons ‘on the move’, as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  7. Both Nearest Neighbours and Long-term Affiliates Predict Individual Locations During Collective Movement in Wild Baboons.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Ziebart, Brian; Brugere, Ivan; Li, Jia; Crofoot, Margaret C

    2016-01-01

    In many animal societies, groups of individuals form stable social units that are shaped by well-delineated dominance hierarchies and a range of affiliative relationships. How do socially complex groups maintain cohesion and achieve collective movement? Using high-resolution GPS tracking of members of a wild baboon troop, we test whether collective movement in stable social groups is governed by interactions among local neighbours (commonly found in groups with largely anonymous memberships), social affiliates, and/or by individuals paying attention to global group structure. We construct candidate movement prediction models and evaluate their ability to predict the future trajectory of focal individuals. We find that baboon movements are best predicted by 4 to 6 neighbours. While these are generally individuals' nearest neighbours, we find that baboons have distinct preferences for particular neighbours, and that these social affiliates best predict individual location at longer time scales (>10 minutes). Our results support existing theoretical and empirical studies highlighting the importance of local rules in driving collective outcomes, such as collective departures, in primates. We extend previous studies by elucidating the rules that maintain cohesion in baboons 'on the move', as well as the different temporal scales of social interactions that are at play. PMID:27292778

  8. Long-term fluctuations of Pelagia noctiluca (Cnidaria, Scyphomedusa) in the western Mediterranean Sea. Prediction by climatic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goy, Jacquelinn; Morand, Pierre; Etienne, Michéle

    1989-02-01

    The archives of the Station Zoologique at Villefranche-sur-Mer contain records of "years with Pelagia noctiluca" and 'years without Pelagia". These records, plus additional data, indicate that over the past 200 years (1785-1985) outburst of Pelagia have occured about every 12 years. Using a forecasting model, climatic variables, notably temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure, appear to predict "years with Pelagia".

  9. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients' medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055

  10. Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Barbieri, Carlo; Bolzoni, Elena; Mari, Flavio; Cattinelli, Isabella; Bellocchio, Francesco; Martin, José D.; Amato, Claudia; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele; Macdougall, Iain C.; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients’ medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients. PMID:26939055