Sample records for predicting population dynamics

  1. Modeling and prediction of cell population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Youngil Lima

    Oscillatory yeast cell dynamics are observed in glucose-limited growth environments. Under such conditions, both glucose and the excreted product ethanol can serve as substrates for cell growth. The cell dynamics is described by a PDE (partial differential equation) system containing one PDE for the cell population and 8 ODEs for 8 substrates variations (extracellular glucose, extracellular ethanol, intracellular glucose, intracellular

  2. Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments

    Microsoft Academic Search

    2008-01-01

    I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model pre- dictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus ,t o examine how geographic

  3. Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Juliano, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    This chapter reviews aspects of population dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito populations, primarily because it can lead to compensatory or overcompensatory mortality due to additions of a biological control agent. This can result in control efforts leading to no change in the target population, or actual increases in the target population, respectively. Density dependent effects, and compensatory or overcompensatory mortality, appear to be most common in mosquitoes from container or highly ephemeral habitats. In permanent ground water habitats generalist predators appear to limit mosquito populations and so render mortality additive. Thus, biological control in permanent ground water habitats seems to have the highest likelihood of producing a satisfactory result. A central premise of classical biological control is that pest populations are reduced by enemies to stable equilibrium levels that are both below the pre-control equilibrium level, and well below the level producing detrimental effects. This premise results in predictions that successful biological control is likely to involve specialist enemies (usually parasitoids), with short generation times relative to the victim, high rates of successful search, rapid rates of increase, and needing only a few victims to complete their life cycle. These predictions largely fail for mosquito systems, in which successful biological control seems to be associated with generalist enemies that can kill a large portion of the target population, often causing local extinction, and can persist in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus contrasting sharply with classical biological control. This review suggests a need for better data on density dependent regulation of mosquito populations. PMID:17853611

  4. Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lauren B

    2008-01-01

    I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges. PMID:18171140

  5. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  7. Predicting Population Curves.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bunton, Matt

    2003-01-01

    Uses graphs to involve students in inquiry-based population investigations on the Wisconsin gray wolf. Requires students to predict future changes in the wolf population, carrying capacity, and deer population. (YDS)

  8. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF EXTRAPOLATION POPULATION MODELING TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA POPULATIONS IN THE LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    An age-classified projection matrix model has been developed to extrapolate the chronic (28-35d) demographic responses of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) to population-level response. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this model for predicting t...

  9. Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (?T) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ?T method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ?T on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events. PMID:25785866

  10. Climate-Based Models for Pulsed Resources Improve Predictability of Consumer Population Dynamics: Outbreaks of House Mice in Forest Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Holland, E. Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A.; Pech, Roger P.; Byrom, Andrea E.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (?T) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer–resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ?T method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ?T on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year’s advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer–resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events. PMID:25785866

  11. Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

    2013-11-01

    Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3?months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3?months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3?months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. PMID:23176630

  12. A population model capturing dynamics of tuberculosis granulomas predicts host infection outcomes.

    PubMed

    Gong, Chang; Linderman, Jennifer J; Kirschner, Denise

    2015-06-01

    Granulomas play a centric role in tuberculosis (TB) infection progression. Multiple granulomas usually develop within a single host. These granulomas are not synchronized in size or bacteria load, and will follow different trajectories over time. How the fate of individual granulomas influence overall infection outcome at host scale is not understood, although computational models have been developed to predict single granuloma behavior. Here we present a within-host population model that tracks granulomas in two key organs during Mycobacteria tuberculosis (Mtb) infection: lung and lymph nodes (LN). We capture various time courses of TB progression, including latency and reactivation. The model predicts that there is no steady state; rather it is a continuous process of progressing to active disease over differing time periods. This is consistent with recently posed ideas suggesting that latent TB exists as a spectrum of states and not a single state. The model also predicts a dual role for granuloma development in LNs during Mtb infection: in early phases of infection granulomas suppress infection by providing additional antigens to the site of immune priming; however, this induces a more rapid reactivation at later stages by disrupting immune responses. We identify mechanisms that strongly correlate with better host-level outcomes, including elimination of uncontained lung granulomas by inducing low levels of lung tissue damage and inhibition of bacteria dissemination within the lung. PMID:25811559

  13. PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

    PubMed Central

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

  14. Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: How much can be modeled and predicted?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Cesare Marchetti; Perrin S. Meyer; Jesse H. Ausubel

    1996-01-01

    Decrease or growth of population comes from the interplay of death and birth (and locally, migration). We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth), the key factors totaling population. For death, once an individual has legally entered society, the

  15. Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chonggang Xu; Mathieu Legros; Fred Gould; Alun L. Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    BackgroundAedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito vectors of human disease. The development of spatial models for Ae. aegypti provides a promising start toward model-guided vector control and risk assessment, but this will only be possible if models make reliable predictions. The reliability of model predictions is affected by specific sources of uncertainty in the model.Methodology\\/Principal FindingsThis study

  16. Stoichiometry and population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tom Andersen; James J. Elser; Dag O. Hessen

    2004-01-01

    Population dynamics theory forms the quantitative core from which most ecologists have developed their intuition about how species interactions, heterogeneity, and biodiversity play out in time. Throughout its development, theoretical population biology has built on variants of the Lotka-Volterra equations and in nearly all cases has taken a single-currency approach to understanding population change, abstracting populations as aggregations of individuals

  17. Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain

    Microsoft Academic Search

    SANDRA HAMEL; STEEVE D. COTE; MARCO FESTA-BIANCHET

    The understanding of population dynamics is a central issue for managing large mammals. Modeling has allowed population ecologists to increase their knowledge about complex systems and better predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear sensitive to harvest, but the relative influence of survival and reproductive rates on their population dynamics are not well understood. Using longitudinal

  18. Research Article Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear, Oreamnos americanus, population dynamics, sensitivity analysis. A complex but central goal in population

  19. Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a

    E-print Network

    Koprowski, John L.

    S T R A C T The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most characteristics that ultimately drive population dynamics. Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) are com- mon

  20. Uncertainty analysis of transient population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chonggang Xu; George Z. Gertner

    2009-01-01

    Two types of demographic analyses, perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis, can be conducted to gain insights about matrix population models and guide population management. Perturbation analysis studies how the perturbation of demographic parameters (survival, growth, and reproduction parameters) may affect the population projection, while uncertainty analysis evaluates how much uncertainty there is in population dynamic predictions and where the uncertainty

  1. EFFICIENT MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL WITH PREDICTION DYNAMICS

    E-print Network

    Foss, Bjarne A.

    by intro- ducing more general dynamics in the future control moves (re- ferred to as prediction dynamicsEFFICIENT MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL WITH PREDICTION DYNAMICS Stian Drageset, Lars Imsland and Bjarne predictive control, constrained systems, in- variant sets, bilinear matrix inequalities Abstract An efficient

  2. Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases

    E-print Network

    Rohani, Pejman

    is predicted and cannot be dismissed in the limited case-study data available for measles and whooping cough in England before the vaccination era. Keywords: measles; whooping cough; population dynamics; epidemiology

  3. Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Rolf A. Ims; Xavier Lambin

    1999-01-01

    The search for mechanisms behind spatial population synchrony is currently a major issue in population ecology. Theoretical studies highlight how synchronizing mechanisms such as dispersal, regionally correlated climatic variables and mobile enemies might interact with local dynamics to produce different patterns of spatial covariance. Specialized statistical methods, applied to large-scale survey data, aid in testing the theoretical predictions with empirical

  4. Perturbation Theory for Population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Francisco M. Fernandez

    2007-12-20

    We prove that a recently proposed homotopy perturbation method for the treatment of population dynamics is just the Taylor expansion of the population variables about initial time. Our results show that this perturbation method fails to provide the global features of the ecosystem dynamics.

  5. Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Petchey, O L

    2000-01-01

    Single-species populations of ciliates (Colpidium and Paramecium) experienced constant temperature or white or reddened temperature fluctuations in aquatic microcosms in order to test three hypotheses about how environmental colour influences population dynamics. (i) Models predict that the colour of population dynamics is tinged by the colour of the environmental variability. However, environmental colour had no effect on the colour of population dynamics. All population dynamics in this experiment were reddened, regardless of environmental colour. (ii) Models predict that populations will track reddened environmental variability more closely than white environmental variability and that populations with a higher intrinsic growth rate (r) will track environmental variability more closely than populations with a low r. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. (iii) Models predict that population variability is determined by interaction between r and the environmental variability. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. These results show that (i) reddened population dynamics may need no special explanation, such as reddened environments, spatial subdivision or interspecific interactions, and (ii) and (iii) that population dynamics are sensitive to environmental colour, in agreement with population models. Correct specification of the colour of the environmental variability in models is required for accurate predictions. Further work is needed to study the effects of environmental colour on communities and ecosystems. PMID:10819142

  6. Animal Population Dynamics Jennifer Gervais

    E-print Network

    Gervais, Jennifer

    1798 ­went through 6 editions Discussed issue of limited food supply for humanity ­ early population regulation! Human population limited by pestilence and famine ­ perfectability of society limited #12;2 Early history, population dynamics Applying demographic techniques first developed for humans (Pearl) A new idea

  7. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  8. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  9. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  10. PREDICTING WILDLIFE POPULATION EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  11. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  12. Dynamic Communicability Predicts Infectiousness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantzaris, Alexander V.; Higham, Desmond J.

    Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network. We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures.

  13. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  14. A Stochastic Population Dynamics Model

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    A Stochastic Population Dynamics Model Geof H. Givens \\Lambda April 26, 1999 Abstract be attributed to variation \\Lambda Geof H. Givens is Assistant Professor of Statistics at the Department a minimum calving interval. The model is based on the deterministic model given in Appendix 3, which

  15. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction. PMID:12309869

  16. Dynamics and Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strza?ko, Jaros?aw; Grabski, Juliusz; Perlikowski, Przemys?aw; Stefanski, Andrzej; Kapitaniak, Tomasz

    We present the results of the experimental observations and the numerical simulations of the coin toss, die throw, and roulette run. We give arguments supporting the statement that the outcome of the mechanical randomizer is fully determined by the initial conditions, i.e., no dynamical uncertainties due to the exponential divergence of initial conditions or fractal basin boundaries occur. We point out that although the boundaries between basins of attraction of different final configurations in the initial condition space are smooth, the distance of a typical initial condition from a basin boundary is so small that practically any uncertainty in initial conditions can lead to the uncertainty of the outcome.

  17. Predicting earth's dynamic changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rasool, S. I.

    1986-01-01

    Given a suitable strategy for conducting measurements, satellite-based remote sensing of the earth can furnish valuable information on the dynamic changes of such planetary characteristics as ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2. Observations must be global and synoptic, quantitatively validated, and consistent over the long term. A program spanning 20 years will study such critical variables as solar flux, stratospheric temperature, aerosols and ozone, cloud cover, tropospheric gases and aerosols, radiation balance, surface temperature, albedo, precipitation, vegetation cover, moisture, snow and ice, as well as oceanic color, topography, and wind stress.

  18. The genetic basis of population fecundity prediction across multiple field populations of Nilaparvata lugens.

    PubMed

    Sun, Zhong Xiang; Zhai, Yi Fan; Zhang, Jian Qing; Kang, Kui; Cai, Jing Heng; Fu, Yonggui; Qiu, Jie Qi; Shen, Jia Wei; Zhang, Wen Qing

    2015-02-01

    Identifying the molecular markers for complex quantitative traits in natural populations promises to provide novel insight into genetic mechanisms of adaptation and to aid in forecasting population dynamics. In this study, we investigated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using candidate gene approach from high- and low-fecundity populations of the brown planthopper (BPH) Nilaparvata lugens Stål (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) divergently selected for fecundity. We also tested whether the population fecundity can be predicted by a few SNPs. Seven genes (ACE, fizzy, HMGCR, LpR, Sxl, Vg and VgR) were inspected for SNPs in N. lugens, which is a serious insect pest of rice. By direct sequencing of the complementary DNA and promoter sequences of these candidate genes, 1033 SNPs were discovered within high- and low-fecundity BPH populations. A panel of 121 candidate SNPs were selected and genotyped in 215 individuals from 2 laboratory populations (HFP and LFP) and 3 field populations (GZP, SGP and ZSP). Prior to association tests, population structure and linkage disequilibrium (LD) among the 3 field populations were analysed. The association results showed that 7 SNPs were significantly associated with population fecundity in BPH. These significant SNPs were used for constructing general liner models with stepwise regression. The best predictive model was composed of 2 SNPs (ACE-862 and VgR-816 ) with very good fitting degree. We found that 29% of the phenotypic variation in fecundity could be accounted for by only two markers. Using two laboratory populations and a complete independent field population, the predictive accuracy was 84.35-92.39%. The predictive model provides an efficient molecular method to predict BPH fecundity of field populations and provides novel insights for insect population management. PMID:25581109

  19. Genomic Predictability of Interconnected Biparental Maize Populations

    PubMed Central

    Riedelsheimer, Christian; Endelman, Jeffrey B.; Stange, Michael; Sorrells, Mark E.; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2013-01-01

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations challenges the design of the training set (TS) in genomic selection (GS). An important open question is how the TS should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small biparental families to predict progeny from individual crosses. Here, we used a set of five interconnected maize (Zea mays L.) populations of doubled-haploid (DH) lines derived from four parents to systematically investigate how the composition of the TS affects the prediction accuracy for lines from individual crosses. A total of 635 DH lines genotyped with 16,741 polymorphic SNPs were evaluated for five traits including Gibberella ear rot severity and three kernel yield component traits. The populations showed a genomic similarity pattern, which reflects the crossing scheme with a clear separation of full sibs, half sibs, and unrelated groups. Prediction accuracies within full-sib families of DH lines followed closely theoretical expectations, accounting for the influence of sample size and heritability of the trait. Prediction accuracies declined by 42% if full-sib DH lines were replaced by half-sib DH lines, but statistically significantly better results could be achieved if half-sib DH lines were available from both instead of only one parent of the validation population. Once both parents of the validation population were represented in the TS, including more crosses with a constant TS size did not increase accuracies. Unrelated crosses showing opposite linkage phases with the validation population resulted in negative or reduced prediction accuracies, if used alone or in combination with related families, respectively. We suggest identifying and excluding such crosses from the TS. Moreover, the observed variability among populations and traits suggests that these uncertainties must be taken into account in models optimizing the allocation of resources in GS. PMID:23535384

  20. Exploring Dynamic Branch Prediction Methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ming Wu; Zhiwei Cen; Junwei Zhou

    How to resolve the control flow breaking caused by the branch instructions is a major issue in modern deep pipeline processor design. Our project is based on the paper of J. Stark et. al. (1), a variable length path branch predictor. It uses the branch path information for prediction, and change the length of the path dynamically based on the

  1. Predicting how populations decline to extinction

    PubMed Central

    Collen, Ben; McRae, Louise; Deinet, Stefanie; De Palma, Adriana; Carranza, Tharsila; Cooper, Natalie; Loh, Jonathan; Baillie, Jonathan E. M.

    2011-01-01

    Global species extinction typically represents the endpoint in a long sequence of population declines and local extinctions. In comparative studies of extinction risk of contemporary mammalian species, there appear to be some universal traits that may predispose taxa to an elevated risk of extinction. In local population-level studies, there are limited insights into the process of population decline and extinction. Moreover, there is still little appreciation of how local processes scale up to global patterns. Advancing the understanding of factors which predispose populations to rapid declines will benefit proactive conservation and may allow us to target at-risk populations as well as at-risk species. Here, we take mammalian population trend data from the largest repository of population abundance trends, and combine it with the PanTHERIA database on mammal traits to answer the question: what factors can be used to predict decline in mammalian abundance? We find in general that environmental variables are better determinants of cross-species population-level decline than intrinsic biological traits. For effective conservation, we must not only describe which species are at risk and why, but also prescribe ways to counteract this. PMID:21807738

  2. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici epopovic of understanding how the fitness distribution of an EA population changes over time. 1 Introduction and Background Although a sense of the importance of population fitness distributions is deeply ingrained

  3. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  4. Effects of seasonally varying dietary crude protein levels on collared peccary population dynamics: a simulation study.

    E-print Network

    Wilber, James Paul

    1987-01-01

    (Ofus asio) population dynamics. Yodzis and Kolenosky (1986) used a population model of black bears (Ursus amen canus) in eastcentral Ontario to predict intrinsic population growth rate and age specific reproduction based on mark-recapture data...

  5. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  6. Small population effects in stochastic population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Percus, Jerome K

    2005-11-01

    The discreteness of units of small populations can produce large fluctuations from a classical continuous representation, especially when null populations play a crucial role. These belong to what are here referred to as emergent and evanescent species. A few model biological systems are introduced in which this is the case, as well as a toy model that suggests a path to avoid the associated mathematical complexities. The corresponding division into null and non-null population sectors is carried out to leading order for the model systems, with promising results. PMID:16005504

  7. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks

    PubMed Central

    Matter, Stephen F.; Roland, Jens

    2010-01-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics. PMID:19889700

  8. Sex in space: population dynamic consequences

    PubMed Central

    Ranta, E.; Kaitala, V.; m, J. Lindstr

    1999-01-01

    Sex, so important in the reproduction of bigametic species, is nonetheless often ignored in explorations of the dynamics of populations. Using a growth model of dispersal-coupled populations we can keep track of fluctuations in numbers of females and males. The sexes may differ from each other in their ability to disperse and their sensitivity to population density. As a further complication, the breeding system is either monogamous or polygamous. We use the harmonic mean birth function to account for sex-ratio-dependent population growth in a Moran–Ricker population renewal process. Incorporating the spatial dimension stabilizes the dynamics of populations with monogamy as the breeding system, but does not stabilize the population dynamics of polygamous species. Most notably, in populations coupled with dispersal, where the sexes differ in their dispersal ability there are rarely stable and equal sex ratios. Rather, a two-point cycle, four-point cycle and eventually complex behaviour of sex-ratio dynamics will emerge with increasing birth rates. Monogamy often leads to less noisy sex-ratio dynamics than polygamy. In our model, the sex-ratio dynamics of coupled populations differ from those of an isolated population system, where a stable 50:50 sex ratio is achievable with equal density-dependence costs for females and males. When sexes match in their dispersal ability, population dynamics and sex-ratio dynamics of coupled populations collapse to those of isolated populations.

  9. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  10. Aphid population dynamics: does resistance to parasitism inuence population size?

    E-print Network

    Hufbauer, Ruth A.

    Aphid population dynamics: does resistance to parasitism in¯uence population size? R . A . H U F B and extrinsic factors can interact in their effects on population size. 2. Pea aphids Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris pea aphids specialised on clover. To assess the potential in¯uence of this genetically based

  11. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    PubMed Central

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  12. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  13. INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY

    E-print Network

    such as the atmosphere and ocean as well as earthquake prediction for which the system can be considered even more nonINFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY RICHARD KLEEMAN Abstract. Predicting of obtaining practical results for prediction also guides the development presented. 1. Introduction Prediction

  14. Dynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma

    E-print Network

    Krings, Axel W.

    Dynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma University of Idaho Computer Science of genetic algorithms (GA). In particular, we test five dynamic population-sizing patterns: random. General Terms Algorithms. Keywords: Dynamic Population, Fluctuating Population, Genetic Algorithms

  15. 847Parkyn et al.--Crayfish growth and population dynamics Growth and population dynamics of crayfish

    E-print Network

    Waikato, University of

    847Parkyn et al.--Crayfish growth and population dynamics Growth and population dynamics of crayfish Paranephrops planifrons in streams within native forest and pastoral land uses STEPHANIE M. PARKYN Zealand Abstract Population dynamics of crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons White) in streams draining

  16. Population dynamics of interacting spiking neurons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattia, Maurizio; del Giudice, Paolo

    2002-11-01

    A dynamical equation is derived for the spike emission rate ?(t) of a homogeneous network of integrate-and-fire (IF) neurons in a mean-field theoretical framework, where the activity of the single cell depends both on the mean afferent current (the ``field'') and on its fluctuations. Finite-size effects are taken into account, by a stochastic extension of the dynamical equation for the ? their effect on the collective activity is studied in detail. Conditions for the local stability of the collective activity are shown to be naturally and simply expressed in terms of (the slope of) the single neuron, static, current-to-rate transfer function. In the framework of the local analysis, we studied the spectral properties of the time-dependent collective activity of the finite network in an asynchronous state; finite-size fluctuations act as an ongoing self-stimulation, which probes the spectral structure of the system on a wide frequency range. The power spectrum of ? exhibits modes ranging from very high frequency (depending on spike transmission delays), which are responsible for instability, to oscillations at a few Hz, direct expression of the diffusion process describing the population dynamics. The latter ``diffusion'' slow modes do not contribute to the stability conditions. Their characteristic times govern the transient response of the network; these reaction times also exhibit a simple dependence on the slope of the neuron transfer function. We speculate on the possible relevance of our results for the change in the characteristic response time of a neural population during the learning process which shapes the synaptic couplings, thereby affecting the slope of the transfer function. There is remarkable agreement of the theoretical predictions with simulations of a network of IF neurons with a constant leakage term for the membrane potential.

  17. Encroaching forests decouple alpine butterfly population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past 50 years, the rising tree line along Jumpingpound Ridge in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada, has reduced the area of alpine meadows and isolated populations that reside within them. By analyzing an 11-year data set of butterfly population sizes for 17 subpopulations along the ridge, we show that forest habitat separating alpine meadows decouples the dynamics of populations of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus. Although the distance between populations is often negatively correlated with synchrony of dynamics, here we show that distance through forest, not Euclidean distance, determines the degree of synchrony. This effect is consistent with previous results demonstrating that encroaching forest reduces dispersal among populations and reduces gene flow. Decoupling dynamics produces more smaller independent populations, each with greater risk of local extinction, but decoupling may produce a lower risk of regional extinction in this capricious environment. PMID:17699630

  18. Accuracy of genomic prediction when combining two related crossbred populations.

    PubMed

    Vallée, A; van Arendonk, J A M; Bovenhuis, H

    2014-10-01

    Charolais bulls are selected for their crossbreed performance when mated to Montbéliard or Holstein dams. To implement genomic prediction, one could build a reference population for each crossbred population independently. An alternative could be to combine both crossbred populations into a single reference population to increase size and accuracy of prediction. The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction by combining different crossbred populations. Three scenarios were considered: 1) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the same crossbred population, 2) combining the 2 crossbred populations into 1 reference to predict phenotype of animals from 1 crossbred population, and 3) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the other crossbred population. Traits studied were bone thinness, height, and muscular development. Phenotypes and 45,117 SNP genotypes were available for 1,764 Montbéliard × Charolais calves and 447 Holstein × Charolais calves. The population was randomly spilt into 10 subgroups, which were assigned to the validation one by one. To allow fair comparison between scenarios, size of the reference population was kept constant for all scenarios. Breeding values were estimated with BLUP and genomic BLUP. Accuracy of prediction was calculated as the correlation between the EBV and the phenotypic values of the calves in the validation divided by the square root of the heritability. Genomic BLUP showed higher accuracies (between 0.281 and 0.473) than BLUP (between 0.197 and 0.452). Accuracies tended to be highest when prediction was within 1 crossbred population, intermediate when populations were combined into the reference population, and lowest when prediction was across populations. Decrease in accuracy from a prediction within 1 population to a prediction across populations was more pronounced for bone thinness (-27%) and height (-29%) than for muscular development (-14%). Genetic correlation between the 2 crossbred populations was estimated using pedigree relationships. It was 0.70 for bone thinness, 0.80 for height, and 0.99 for muscular development. Genetic correlation indicates the expected gain in accuracy of prediction when combining different populations into 1 reference population. The larger the genetic correlation is, the larger the benefit is to combine populations for genomic prediction. PMID:25149337

  19. Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography

    PubMed Central

    Benton, Tim G; Plaistow, Stewart J; Coulson, Tim N

    2006-01-01

    Population dynamics result from the interplay of density-independent and density-dependent processes. Understanding this interplay is important, especially for being able to predict near-term population trajectories for management. In recent years, the study of model systems—experimental, observational and theoretical—has shed considerable light on the way that the both density-dependent and -independent aspects of the environment affect population dynamics via impacting on the organism's life history and therefore demography. These model-based approaches suggest that (i) individuals in different states differ in their demographic performance, (ii) these differences generate structure that can fluctuate independently of current total population size and so can influence the dynamics in important ways, (iii) individuals are strongly affected by both current and past environments, even when the past environments may be in previous generations and (iv) dynamics are typically complex and transient due to environmental noise perturbing complex population structures. For understanding population dynamics of any given system, we suggest that ‘the devil is in the detail’. Experimental dissection of empirical systems is providing important insights into the details of the drivers of demographic responses and therefore dynamics and should also stimulate theory that incorporates relevant biological mechanism. PMID:16720388

  20. Cephalopod Populations: Definition and Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    P. R. Boyle; S. V. Boletzky

    1996-01-01

    The study of cephalopod populations currently lacks the means to define populations adequately and to resolve basic systematic confusions. Quantitative data are usually only available from indirect sources such as commercial fisheries and from estimates of consumption by higher predators. Despite these methodological difficulties it is clear that cephalopods comprise a major component of biomass globally, throughout all fully marine

  1. Effects of virus on plant fecundity and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Prendeville, Holly R; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Pilson, Diana

    2014-06-01

    Microorganisms are ubiquitous and thought to regulate host populations. Although microorganisms can be pathogenic and affect components of fitness, few studies have examined their effects on wild plant populations. As individual traits might not contribute equally to changes in population growth rate, it is essential to examine the entire life cycle to determine how microorganisms affect host population dynamics. In this study, we used data from common garden experiments with plants from three Cucurbita pepo populations exposed to three virus treatments. These data were used to parameterize a deterministic matrix model, which allowed us to estimate the effect of virus on components of fitness and population growth rate. Virus did not reduce fruit number, but population growth rates varied among virus treatments and wild C. pepo populations. The effect of virus on population growth rate depended on virus species and wild C. pepo population. Contributions of life-history transitions and life-history traits to population growth rates varied among populations and virus treatments. However, this population-virus interaction was not evident when examining individual components of fitness. Thus, caution must be used when interpreting the effects of changes in individual traits, as single traits do not always predict population-level change accurately. PMID:24571200

  2. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  3. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  4. Dynamically hot galaxies. II - Global stellar populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ralf Bender; David Burstein; S. M. Faber

    1993-01-01

    The global relationship between the stellar populations and the structural properties of dynamically hot galaxies (DHGs) is investigated using the same sample as was analyzed by Bender et al. (1992), which includes giant ellipticals, low-luminosity ellipticals, compact ellipticals, diffuse dwarf ellipticals, dwarf spheroidals, and bulges. It was found that all DHGs follow a single relationship between global stellar population (represented

  5. Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yosef Cohen

    2009-01-01

    Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with

  6. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici and Kenneth De Jong population fitness distribution rather than just "best-so-far" curves. But characterizing how repeated fitness landscapes. Our approach is to study empirically derived fitness distributions, both qual

  7. Object Dynamics Prediction and Motion Generation based on Reliable Predictability

    E-print Network

    Tani, Jun

    is tightly connected to consistency of environmental changes. Humans are more capable of predicting of object dynamics, which is related to reliable predictability, is an important factor for generating or environment. Currently, most works on affordance are performed for mobility, which generate mo- tions based

  8. Evolution and population dynamics in stochastic environments

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jin Yoshimura; Vincent A. A. Jansen

    1996-01-01

    Inter-generational temporal variability of the environment is important in the evolution and adaptation of phenotypic traits.\\u000a We discuss a population-dynamic approach which plays a central role in the analysis of evolutionary processes. The basic principle\\u000a is that the phenotypes with the greatest long-term average growth rate will dominate the entire population. The calculation\\u000a of longterm average growth rates for populations

  9. Dynamic Branch Prediction for a VLIW Processor

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jan Hoogerbrugge

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the design of a dynamic branch predictor for a VLIW processor. The developed branch predictor predicts the direction of a branch, i.e., taken or not taken, and in the case of taken prediction, it predicts the issue-slot that contains the taken branch. This information is used to perform the BTB lookup. We compare this method against a

  10. Modelling social dynamics of a structured population.

    E-print Network

    Primicerio, Mario

    and attractivity of crime1 . In [16] and [15] one of such quantities was identified as the "social class". More the transition to a social class not adjacent is forbidden. In this perspective if we consider for simplicityModelling social dynamics of a structured population. Abstract We present a model for the dynamics

  11. Dynamic Random Networks in Dynamic Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britton, Tom; Lindholm, Mathias

    2010-05-01

    We consider a random network evolving in continuous time in which new nodes are born and old may die, and where undirected edges between nodes are created randomly and may also disappear. The node population is Markovian and so is the creation and deletion of edges, given the node population. Each node is equipped with a random social index and the intensity at which a node creates new edges is proportional to the social index, and the neighbour is either chosen uniformly or proportional to its social index in a modification of the model. We derive properties of the network as time and the node population tends to infinity. In particular, the degree-distribution is shown to be a mixed Poisson distribution which may exhibit a heavy tail (e.g. power-law) if the social index distribution has a heavy tail. The limiting results are verified by means of simulations, and the model is fitted to a network of sexual contacts.

  12. Population Ecology Wolf Population Dynamics in the U.S.

    E-print Network

    Mitchell, Mike

    such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines for monitoring. Ã? 2011 The Wildlife Society. KEY WORDS Canis lupus, harvest, human-caused mortality, Montana gray wolves (Canis lupus), presents unique challenges for wildlife professionals. Responsible

  13. Pathwise thermodynamic structure in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sughiyama, Yuki; Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Tsumura, Koji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-03-01

    We reveal thermodynamic structure in population dynamics with phenotype switching. Mean fitness for a population of organisms is determined by a thermodynamic variational principle described by the large deviation of phenotype-switching dynamics. Owing to this variational principle, a response relation of the mean fitness with respect to changes of environments and phenotype-switching dynamics is represented as a thermodynamic differential form. Furthermore, we discuss the strength of the selection by using the difference between time-forward and time-backward (retrospective) processes.

  14. Population Dynamics of Suburban Blackbirds

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. A. Batten

    1973-01-01

    During this century the Blackbird has become one of the commonest urban and suburban song-birds in Britain. In an effort to discover why town life attracts so many Blackbirds, the author has looked closely at the B.T.O. data, derived mainly from ringing and nest records, and has found interesting differences in productivity between London and rural populations.

  15. Predicting the dynamics of antiviral cytotoxic T-cell memory in response to different stimuli: Cell population structure and protective function

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G Bocharov; P Klenerman; S Ehl

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the numerical and functional consequences of various stimuli on antiviral CD8+ T-cell memory using a mathematical model. The model is based upon biological evidence from the murine model of infection with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) that the phenotype of immunological memory represents low-level responses driven by various stimuli, and the memory CTL population is partitioned between resting,

  16. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations. PMID:25026455

  17. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    E-print Network

    Antal, Tibor

    landscape as it moves over it (Nowak & Sigmund 2004). Frequency-dependent selection brings us into the world of evolutionary game theory (Maynard Smith 1982; Hofbauer & Sigmund 1988). Evolutionary game theory was originally & Sigmund 2004). Evolutionary game dynamics include the com- petition of species in an ecosystem (May 1973

  18. The analysis of crow population dynamics as a surveillance tool.

    PubMed

    Ludwig, A; Bigras-Poulin, M; Michel, P

    2009-12-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) infection, a zoonotic disease for which birds act as a reservoir, first appeared in North America in August 1999. It was first reported in Quebec in 2002. The Quebec surveillance system for WNV has several components, including the surveillance of mortality in corvid populations, which includes the American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The main objectives of this study are to better understand the population dynamics of this species in Quebec and to evaluate the impact of WNV on these dynamics. We obtained observation data for living crows in this province for the period of 1990-2005 and then conducted a spectral analysis of these data. To study changes in crow population dynamics, the analysis was carried out before and after the appearance of WNV and space was divided in two different areas (urban and non-urban). Our results show the importance of cycles with periods of less than 1 year in non-urban areas and cycles with periods of greater than 1 year in urban areas in the normal population dynamics of the species. We obtained expected fluctuations in bird densities using an algorithm derived from spectral decomposition. When we compared these predictions with data observed after 2002, we found marked perturbations in population dynamics beginning in 2003 and lasting up to 2005. In the discussion, we present various hypotheses based on the behaviour of the American crow to explain the normal population dynamics observed in this species and the effect of type of area (urban versus non-urban). We also discuss how the predictive algorithm could be used as a disease surveillance tool and as a measure of the impact of a disease on wild fauna. PMID:19811623

  19. Structural dynamics and ecology of flatfish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, Kevin M.

    1997-11-01

    The concept of structure in populations of marine fishes is fundamental to how we manage and conduct research on these resources. The degree of population structure ranges widely among flatfishes. Although we know that large populations tend to be subdivided into local populations, based on morphological, meristic and reproductive characteristics, these data often conflict with evidence on genetic stock structure, due to the scale and organization of movement within the metapopulation. Movement of individuals between local subpopulations and colonization events on a macroecological scale are probably important to some flatfish populations. Dispersal of larvae is known to be a major factor affecting population mixing. Some flatfishes have planktonic stages of long duration and for these species there is often, but not always, little population structure; gene flow sometimes may be limited by oceanographic features, such as eddies and fronts. At the juvenile stage dispersal can result in colonization of under-utilized habitats; however, for flatfishes with strong habitat requirements, this type of event may be less likely when suitable habitats are fragmented. Complex population structure has major implications for management, e.g. lumping harvested populations with little gene flow can have detrimental local effects. Moreover, the issue of population structure and movement influences the interpretation of research data, where populations are generally treated as closed systems. There is currently a strong need for a multidisciplinary approach to study fish population dynamics and the structure of their populations. This research should involve molecular geneticists, population geneticists, animal behaviourists and ecologists. Migration mechanisms, colonization and extinction events, gene flow and density-dependent movements are subject areas of great importance to managing large harvested populations, but our understanding of them at ecological scales, at least for marine fishes, is at a rudimentary level.

  20. The Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

    E-print Network

    Sippel, Jason A.

    2010-01-15

    Through methodology unique for tropical cyclones in peer-reviewed literature, this study explores how the dynamics of moist convection affects the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. Mesoscale models are used to perform short-range ensemble...

  1. Ecological processes can synchronize marine population dynamics over continental scales

    PubMed Central

    Gouhier, Tarik C.; Guichard, Frédéric; Menge, Bruce A.

    2010-01-01

    Determining the relative importance of local and regional processes for the distribution of population abundance is a fundamental but contentious issue in ecology. In marine systems, classical theory holds that the influence of demographic processes and dispersal is confined to local populations whereas the environment controls regional patterns of abundance. Here, we use spatial synchrony to compare the distribution of population abundance of the dominant mussel Mytilus californianus observed along the West Coast of the United States to that predicted by dynamical models undergoing different dispersal and environmental treatments to infer the relative influence of local and regional processes. We reveal synchronized fluctuations in the abundance of mussel populations across a whole continent despite limited larval dispersal and strong environmental forcing. We show that dispersal among neighboring populations interacts with local demographic processes to generate characteristic patterns of spatial synchrony that can govern the dynamic distribution of mussel abundance over 1,800 km of coastline. Our study emphasizes the importance of dispersal and local dynamics for the distribution of abundance at the continental scale. It further highlights potential limits to the use of “climate envelope” models for predicting the response of large-scale ecosystems to global climate change. PMID:20404141

  2. API Requirements for Dynamic Graph Prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    B Gallagher; T Eliassi-Rad

    2006-01-01

    Given a large-scale time-evolving multi-modal and multi-relational complex network (a.k.a., a large-scale dynamic semantic graph), we want to implement algorithms that discover patterns of activities on the graph and learn predictive models of those discovered patterns. This document outlines the application programming interface (API) requirements for fast prototyping of feature extraction, learning, and prediction algorithms on large dynamic semantic graphs.

  3. Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

    2005-04-01

    Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool. PMID:15813796

  4. A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots

    E-print Network

    Eddy, Sean

    A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots Elena Rivas describe a dynamic programming algorithm for predicting opti­ mal RNA secondary structure, including thermodynamic model. Running title RNA pseudoknot prediction by dynamic programming. Keywords RNA, secondary

  5. Population dynamics in meerkats, Suricata suricatta

    E-print Network

    Bateman, Andrew

    2013-03-12

    Population dynamics in meerkats, Suricata suricatta Andrew Bateman A dissertation submitted to the University of Cambridge in application for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Darwin College January 2013... selection is, itself, a population process. Genotypes are favoured when their frequencies increase relative to competing genotypes, so that evolution occurs as a result of differential rates of natality and mortality, relative to rates within and across...

  6. Multispecies population dynamics of prebiotic compositional assemblies.

    PubMed

    Markovitch, Omer; Lancet, Doron

    2014-09-21

    Present life portrays a two-tier phenomenology: molecules compose supramolecular structures, such as cells or organisms, which in turn portray population behaviors, including selection, evolution and ecological dynamics. Prebiotic models have often focused on evolution in populations of self-replicating molecules, without explicitly invoking the intermediate molecular-to-supramolecular transition. Here, we explore a prebiotic model that allows one to relate parameters of chemical interaction networks within molecular assemblies to emergent population dynamics. We use the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, which simulates the network dynamics within amphiphile-containing molecular assemblies, and exhibits quasi-stationary compositional states termed compotype species. These grow by catalyzed accretion, divide and propagate their compositional information to progeny in a replication-like manner. The model allows us to ask how molecular network parameters influence assembly evolution and population dynamics parameters. In 1000 computer simulations, each embodying different parameter set of the global chemical interaction network parameters, we observed a wide range of behaviors. These were analyzed by a multi species logistic model often used for analyzing population ecology (r-K or Lotka-Volterra competition model). We found that compotypes with a larger intrinsic molecular repertoire show a higher intrinsic growth (r) and lower carrying capacity (K), as well as lower replication fidelity. This supports a prebiotic scenario initiated by fast-replicating assemblies with a high molecular diversity, evolving into more faithful replicators with narrower molecular repertoires. PMID:24831416

  7. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. PMID:23565966

  8. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  9. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations. PMID:17913126

  10. The impact of population structure on genomic prediction in stratified populations.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhigang; Tucker, Dominic M; Basten, Christopher J; Gandhi, Harish; Ersoz, Elhan; Guo, Baohong; Xu, Zhanyou; Wang, Daolong; Gay, Gilles

    2014-03-01

    Impacts of population structure on the evaluation of genomic heritability and prediction were investigated and quantified using high-density markers in diverse panels in rice and maize. Population structure is an important factor affecting estimation of genomic heritability and assessment of genomic prediction in stratified populations. In this study, our first objective was to assess effects of population structure on estimations of genomic heritability using the diversity panels in rice and maize. Results indicate population structure explained 33 and 7.5% of genomic heritability for rice and maize, respectively, depending on traits, with the remaining heritability explained by within-subpopulation variation. Estimates of within-subpopulation heritability were higher than that derived from quantitative trait loci identified in genome-wide association studies, suggesting 65% improvement in genetic gains. The second objective was to evaluate effects of population structure on genomic prediction using cross-validation experiments. When population structure exists in both training and validation sets, correcting for population structure led to a significant decrease in accuracy with genomic prediction. In contrast, when prediction was limited to a specific subpopulation, population structure showed little effect on accuracy and within-subpopulation genetic variance dominated predictions. Finally, effects of genomic heritability on genomic prediction were investigated. Accuracies with genomic prediction increased with genomic heritability in both training and validation sets, with the former showing a slightly greater impact. In summary, our results suggest that the population structure contribution to genomic prediction varies based on prediction strategies, and is also affected by the genetic architectures of traits and populations. In practical breeding, these conclusions may be helpful to better understand and utilize the different genetic resources in genomic prediction. PMID:24452438

  11. BAYESIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELING USING UNCERTAIN HISTORICAL

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    , AND BIOLOGICAL PRIORS GEOF H. GIVENS, Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 and web contact via http://www.colostate.edu/~geof. 1 #12; Bayesian population dynamics modeling \\Delta Givens 2 The stock was also subject to a severe commercial harvest when it was discovered in 1848

  12. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  13. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (? = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in ?). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (? = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  14. Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird

    Microsoft Academic Search

    B.-E. Sæther; J. Tufto; S. Engen; K. Jerstad; O. W. Røstad; J. E. Skåtan

    2000-01-01

    Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature.

  15. The precision of population projections studied by multiple prediction methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tore Schweder

    1971-01-01

    A population projection is a prediction of a random vector variable X\\u000a T\\u000a . which represents the size and age\\/sex distribution of the population in year T. The population is assumed to be closed and to develop according to fixed and known schedules of birth and death probabilities\\u000a as a multitype branching process. The precision of the usual projection e

  16. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  17. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  18. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  19. A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for RNA Structure Prediction Including Pseudoknots

    E-print Network

    Eddy, Sean

    A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for RNA Structure Prediction Including Pseudoknots Elena Rivas a dynamic programming algorithm for predicting optimal RNA secondary structure, including pseudoknots), is an ef®cient dynamic programming algorithm for identifying the globally minimal energy structure

  20. Linking Dynamical and Population Genetic Models of Persistent Viral Infection

    E-print Network

    Kelly, John K.; Williamson, Scott; Orive, Maria E.; Smith, Marilyn S.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-07-01

    This article develops a theoretical framework to link dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection. This linkage is useful because, while the dynamical and population genetic theories have developed ...

  1. Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

    PubMed Central

    Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

    2012-01-01

    Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

  2. API Requirements for Dynamic Graph Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Gallagher, B; Eliassi-Rad, T

    2006-10-13

    Given a large-scale time-evolving multi-modal and multi-relational complex network (a.k.a., a large-scale dynamic semantic graph), we want to implement algorithms that discover patterns of activities on the graph and learn predictive models of those discovered patterns. This document outlines the application programming interface (API) requirements for fast prototyping of feature extraction, learning, and prediction algorithms on large dynamic semantic graphs. Since our algorithms must operate on large-scale dynamic semantic graphs, we have chosen to use the graph API developed in the CASC Complex Networks Project. This API is supported on the back end by a semantic graph database (developed by Scott Kohn and his team). The advantages of using this API are (i) we have full-control of its development and (ii) the current API meets almost all of the requirements outlined in this document.

  3. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  4. Fission and the dynamics of genets and ramets in clonal cnidarian populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. H. Karlson

    1991-01-01

    The dynamics of clonal populations involve a range of biological processes controlling ‘birth’ and ‘death’ rates of genets (i.e., clones) and ramets (i.e., the modular subunits of clones). These two levels of organization were examined for open, fissiparous, resource-limited populations using a modified Leslie matrix. Population projections were used to illustrate the method of predicting equilibrium population sizes and clonal

  5. Predicting population-level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals.

    PubMed

    MacLeod, Colin D; MacLeod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, Graham J

    2014-07-01

    Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning that there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose that population predator risk effects can be predicted through an extension of individual risk trade-off theory and show for the first time that this is the case in a wild vertebrate system. Specifically, we demonstrate that the timing (in specific months of the year), occurrence (at low food availability), cause (reduction in individual energy reserves), and type (starvation mortality) of a population-level predator risk effect can be successfully predicted from individual responses using a widely applicable theoretical framework (individual-based risk trade-off theory). Our results suggest that individual-based risk trade-off frameworks could allow a wide range of population-level predator risk effects to be predicted from existing ecological theory, which would enable risk effects to be more routinely integrated into consideration of population processes and in applied situations such as conservation. PMID:25163131

  6. Dynamical segmentation of single trials from population neural data

    E-print Network

    Columbia University

    Linear Dynamical Systems (HSLDS) model-- in which multiple linear dynamical laws approximate a nonlinearDynamical segmentation of single trials from population neural data Biljana Petreska Gatsby neurons embedded within a recurrently- connected cortical network may provide concurrent views

  7. Application of optimal prediction to molecular dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Barber IV, John Letherman

    2004-12-01

    Optimal prediction is a general system reduction technique for large sets of differential equations. In this method, which was devised by Chorin, Hald, Kast, Kupferman, and Levy, a projection operator formalism is used to construct a smaller system of equations governing the dynamics of a subset of the original degrees of freedom. This reduced system consists of an effective Hamiltonian dynamics, augmented by an integral memory term and a random noise term. Molecular dynamics is a method for simulating large systems of interacting fluid particles. In this thesis, I construct a formalism for applying optimal prediction to molecular dynamics, producing reduced systems from which the properties of the original system can be recovered. These reduced systems require significantly less computational time than the original system. I initially consider first-order optimal prediction, in which the memory and noise terms are neglected. I construct a pair approximation to the renormalized potential, and ignore three-particle and higher interactions. This produces a reduced system that correctly reproduces static properties of the original system, such as energy and pressure, at low-to-moderate densities. However, it fails to capture dynamical quantities, such as autocorrelation functions. I next derive a short-memory approximation, in which the memory term is represented as a linear frictional force with configuration-dependent coefficients. This allows the use of a Fokker-Planck equation to show that, in this regime, the noise is {delta}-correlated in time. This linear friction model reproduces not only the static properties of the original system, but also the autocorrelation functions of dynamical variables.

  8. Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Beasley, James C; Olson, Zachary H; Beatty, William S; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008-2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

  9. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

  10. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  11. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

    PubMed

    Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

    2006-11-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means. PMID:17168036

  12. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  13. Entropy production of cyclic population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Andrae, Benjamin; Reichenbach, Tobias; Frey, Erwin

    2010-01-01

    Entropy serves as a central observable in equilibrium thermodynamics. However, many biological and ecological systems operate far from thermal equilibrium. Here we show that entropy production can characterize the behavior of such nonequilibrium systems. To this end we calculate the entropy production for a population model that displays nonequilibrium behavior resulting from cyclic competition. At a critical point the dynamics exhibits a transition from large, limit-cycle like oscillations to small, erratic oscillations. We show that the entropy production peaks very close to the critical point and tends to zero upon deviating from it. We further provide analytical methods for computing the entropy production which agree excellently with numerical simulations.

  14. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  15. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  16. Predicting dynamic topography from mantle circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Peter; Davies, J. Huw

    2013-04-01

    Dynamic topography is anomalous vertical motions of Earth's surface associated with viscous flow in the mantle. Deformable boundaries, such as the surface, CMB and phase transition boundaries, within a fluid (Earth's mantle) are deflected by viscous flow. Denser than average, sinking mantle creates inward deflections of Earth's surface. Equally, upwelling flow creates bulges in the surface; large plumes are commonly thought to produce superswells, such as the anomalously high elevation of Southern Africa. Dynamic topography appears to operate on a number of length scales. Mantle density anomalies estimated from seismic tomography indicate long wavelength dynamic topography at present day of around 2 km amplitude (e.g. Conrand & Husson, 2009) whilst continental scale studies suggest vertical motions of a few hundred metres. Furthermore, time scales must be an important factor to consider when assessing dynamic topography. Stable, dense lower mantle 'piles' may contribute to dynamic surface topography; as they appear stable over reasonably long time scales, long wavelength dynamic topography may be a fairly constant feature over the recent geological past. Shorter wavelength, smaller amplitude dynamic topography may be due to more transient features of mantle convection. Studies on a continental scale reveal shorter term changes in dynamic topography of the order of a few hundred metres (e.g. Roberts & White, 2010; Heine et al., 2010). Understanding dynamic topography is complicated by the fact it is difficult to observe as the signal is often masked by isostatic effects. We use forward mantle convection models with 300 million years of recent plate motion history as the surface boundary condition to generate a present day distribution of density anomalies associated with subducted lithosphere. From the modelled temperature and density fields we calculate the normal stress at or near the surface of the model. As the models generally have a free slip surface where no vertical motion is allowed, an excess or deficit of stress exists near the surface. A pointwise force balance between this stress excess and the weight of rock above is used to calculate the anomalous elevation associated with the stress. Here we present some of the results obtained from mantle circulation models. We look at different ways of predicting dynamic topography, including the depth at which the stress field is calculated and by removing lithospheric density anomalies from the calculation. We also assess the impact of crustal thickness and isostasy on the predictions of dynamic topography.

  17. The island syndrome and population dynamics of introduced rats.

    PubMed

    Russell, James C; Ringler, David; Trombini, Aurélien; Le Corre, Matthieu

    2011-11-01

    The island syndrome predicts directional changes in the morphology and demography of insular vertebrates, due to changes in trophic complexity and migration rates caused by island size and isolation. However, the high rate of human-mediated species introductions to some islands also increases trophic complexity, and this will reduce the perceived insularity on any such island. We test four hypotheses on the role of increased trophic complexity on the island syndrome, using introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) on two isolated coral atolls in the Mozambique Channel. Europa Island has remained relatively pristine and insular, with few species introductions, whereas Juan de Nova Island has had many species introductions, including predators and competitors of rats, anthropogenically increasing its trophic complexity. In the most insular environments, the island syndrome is expected to generate increases in body size and densities of rodents but decreases in the rates of reproduction and population cycling. Morphology and reproduction were compared using linear regression and canonical discriminant analysis, while density and population cycling were compared using spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis. Results were compared to other insular black rat populations in the Mozambique Channel and were consistent with predictions from the island syndrome. The manifestation of an island syndrome in rodents depends upon the trophic composition of a community, and may not relate to island size alone when many species additions, such as invasions, have occurred. The differing patterns of rodent population dynamics on each island provide information for future rodent eradication operations. PMID:21643994

  18. Predicting effects of dredging on a crab population

    E-print Network

    Predicting effects of dredging on a crab population: An equivalent adult loss approach Thomas C! a University of Washington. seattle. Washington 98 J95 Abstract.-The effect of benthic dredging on coastal entrainment on fishery stocks. Several important dif· ferences between power plant and dredge operations

  19. A PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN IMPINGEMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of a study to: (1) develop a mathematical model describing fish populations as a function of life process dynamics and facilities that impose additional mortality on fish populations; and (2) improve objective impingement impact prediction. The model acco...

  20. The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

  1. Population Dynamics and Potential for Biological Control of an Exotic Invasive Shrub in Hawaiian Rainforests

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Saara J. DeWalt

    2006-01-01

    Introduction of biological control agents to reduce the abundance of exotic invasive plant species is often considered necessary but risky. I used matrix projection models to investigate the current population dynamics of Clidemia  hirta (Melastomataceae), an invasive shrub, in two rainforest stands on the island of Hawaii and to predict the efficacy of hypothetical biological control agents in reducing population

  2. Predicting the dynamics of protein abundance.

    PubMed

    Mehdi, Ahmed M; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L; Bodén, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA-protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation efficiency. The software and data used in this research are available at http://bioinf.scmb.uq.edu.au/proteinabundance/. PMID:24532840

  3. Mechanical reaction-diffusion model for bacterial population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2015-01-01

    The effect of mechanical interaction between cells on the spreading of bacterial population was investigated in one-dimensional space. A nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation has been formulated as a model for this dynamics. In this model, the bacterial cells are treated as the rod-like particles that interact, when contacting each other, through the hard-core repulsion. The repulsion introduces the exclusion process that causes the fast diffusion in bacterial population at high density. The propagation of the bacterial density as the traveling wave front in long time behavior has been analyzed. The analytical result reveals that the front speed is enhanced by the exclusion process---and its value depends on the packing fraction of cell. The numerical solutions of the model have been solved to confirm this prediction.

  4. Spatial and temporal dynamics of infected populations: the Mexican epidemic

    E-print Network

    Rodriguez-Meza, Mario A

    2012-01-01

    Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a successful description of some epidemics of closed populations. We consider the data for the Mexican case and use the SIR model to make some predictions. Then, we generalize the SIR model in order to describe the spatial dynamics of the disease. We make a study of the spatial and temporal spread of the infected population with model parameters that are consistent with temporal SIR model parameters obtained by fitting to the Mexican case.

  5. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics: The Poisson approximation Hernan G. Solari*

    E-print Network

    Natiello, Mario

    of the projection from the space of events into the space of populations that determine the state of the systemStochastic population dynamics: The Poisson approximation Herna´n G. Solari* Departamento de Fi an approximation to stochastic population dynamics based on almost independent Poisson processes whose parameters

  7. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  8. Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eric Post; Mads C. Forchhammer

    2002-01-01

    The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic

  9. Predictive coding of dynamical variables in balanced spiking networks.

    PubMed

    Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K; Denève, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated. PMID:24244113

  10. Stochastic and deterministic simulations of heterogeneous cell population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mantzaris, Nikos V

    2006-08-01

    A Monte Carlo algorithm, which can accurately simulate the dynamics of entire heterogeneous cell populations, was developed. The algorithm takes into account the random nature of cell division as well as unequal partitioning of cellular material at cell division. Moreover, it is general in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of single-cell, deterministic reaction kinetics as well as various stochastic division and partitioning mechanisms. The validity of the algorithm was assessed through comparison of its results with those of the corresponding deterministic cell population balance model in cases where stochastic behavior is expected to be quantitatively negligible. Both algorithms were applied to study: (a) linear intracellular kinetics and (b) the expression dynamics of a genetic network with positive feedback architecture, such as the lac operon. The effects of stochastic division as well as those of different division and partitioning mechanisms were assessed in these systems, while the comparison of the stochastic model with a continuum model elucidated the significance of cell population heterogeneity even in cases where only the prediction of average properties is of primary interest. PMID:16487980

  11. Predicting Protein Interactions by Brownian Dynamics Simulations

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Xuan-Yu; Xu, Yu; Zhang, Hong-Xing; Mezei, Mihaly; Cui, Meng

    2012-01-01

    We present a newly adapted Brownian-Dynamics (BD)-based protein docking method for predicting native protein complexes. The approach includes global BD conformational sampling, compact complex selection, and local energy minimization. In order to reduce the computational costs for energy evaluations, a shell-based grid force field was developed to represent the receptor protein and solvation effects. The performance of this BD protein docking approach has been evaluated on a test set of 24 crystal protein complexes. Reproduction of experimental structures in the test set indicates the adequate conformational sampling and accurate scoring of this BD protein docking approach. Furthermore, we have developed an approach to account for the flexibility of proteins, which has been successfully applied to reproduce the experimental complex structure from the structure of two unbounded proteins. These results indicate that this adapted BD protein docking approach can be useful for the prediction of protein-protein interactions. PMID:22500075

  12. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John M. Tirpak; William M. Giuliano; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations,

  13. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  14. Circuit theory predicts gene flow in plant and animal populations.

    PubMed

    McRae, Brad H; Beier, Paul

    2007-12-11

    Maintaining connectivity for broad-scale ecological processes like dispersal and gene flow is essential for conserving endangered species in fragmented landscapes. However, determining which habitats should be set aside to promote connectivity has been difficult because existing models cannot incorporate effects of multiple pathways linking populations. Here, we test an ecological connectivity model that overcomes this obstacle by borrowing from electrical circuit theory. The model vastly improves gene flow predictions because it simultaneously integrates all possible pathways connecting populations. When applied to data from threatened mammal and tree species, the model consistently outperformed conventional gene flow models, revealing that barriers were less important in structuring populations than previously thought. Circuit theory now provides the best-justified method to bridge landscape and genetic data, and holds much promise in ecology, evolution, and conservation planning. PMID:18056641

  15. Mapping Genes that Predict Treatment Outcome in Admixed Populations

    PubMed Central

    Baye, Tesfaye M.; Wilke, Russell A.

    2010-01-01

    There is great interest in characterizing the genetic architecture underlying drug response. For many drugs, gene-based dosing models explain a considerable amount of the overall variation in treatment outcome. As such, prescription drug labels are increasingly being modified to contain pharmacogenetic information. Genetic data must, however, be interpreted within the context of relevant clinical covariates. Even the most predictive models improve with the addition of data related to biogeographical ancestry. The current review explores analytical strategies that leverage population structure to more fully characterize genetic determinants of outcome in large clinical practice-based cohorts. The success of this approach will depend upon several key factors: (1) the availability of outcome data from groups of admixed individuals (i.e., populations recombined over multiple generations), (2) a measurable difference in treatment outcome (i.e., efficacy and toxicity endpoints), and (3) a measurable difference in allele frequency between the ancestral populations. PMID:20921971

  16. Within and between population variation in plant traits predicts ecosystem functions associated with a dominant plant species

    PubMed Central

    Breza, Lauren C; Souza, Lara; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T

    2012-01-01

    Linking intraspecific variation in plant traits to ecosystem carbon uptake may allow us to better predict how shift in populations shape ecosystem function. We investigated whether plant populations of a dominant old-field plant species (Solidago altissima) differed in carbon dynamics and if variation in plant traits among genotypes and between populations predicted carbon dynamics. We established a common garden experiment with 35 genotypes from three populations of S. altissima from either Tennessee (southern populations) or Connecticut (northern populations) to ask whether: (1) southern and northern Solidago populations will differ in aboveground productivity, leaf area, flowering time and duration, and whole ecosystem carbon uptake, (2) intraspecific trait variation (growth and reproduction) will be related to intraspecific variation in gross ecosystem CO2 exchange (GEE) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) within and between northern and southern populations. GEE and NEE were 4.8× and 2× greater in southern relative to northern populations. Moreover, southern populations produced 13× more aboveground biomass and 1.4× more inflorescence mass than did northern populations. Flowering dynamics (first- and last-day flowering and flowering duration) varied significantly among genotypes in both the southern and northern populations, but plant performance and ecosystem function did not. Both productivity and inflorescence mass predicted NEE and GEE between S. altissima southern and northern populations. Taken together, our data demonstrate that variation between S. altissima populations in performance and flowering traits are strong predictors of ecosystem function in a dominant old-field species and suggest that populations of the same species might differ substantially in their response to environmental perturbations. PMID:22833791

  17. Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Diana M.; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F.; Martin, Corby K.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

    2013-01-01

    Objective Obesity prevalence in the United States (US) appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. Design and Methods A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Results The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. PMID:23804487

  18. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. PMID:23692126

  19. Prediction Forecast for Culex tritaeniorhynchus Populations in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Nam-Hyun; Lee, Wook-Gyo; Shin, E-Hyun; Roh, Jong Yul; Rhee, Hae-Chun; Park, Mi Yeoun

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Japanese encephalitis is considered as a secondary legal infectious disease in Korea and is transmitted by mosquitoes in the summer season. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to all the species of mosquitoes present in the study regions. Methods From 1999 to 2012, black light traps were installed in 10 regions in Korea (Busan, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeju) to capture mosquitoes for identification and classification under a dissecting microscope. The number of mosquitoes captured/week was used to calculate its daily occurrence (mosquitoes/trap/night). To predict the characteristics of the mosquito population, an autoregressive model of order p (AR(p)) was used to execute the out-of-sample prediction and the in-sample estimation after presumption. Results Compared with the out-of-sample method, the sample-weighted regression method's case was relatively superior for prediction, and this method predicted a decrease in the frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus for 2013. However, the actual frequency of this species showed an increase in frequency. By contrast, the frequency rate of all the mosquitoes including Cx. tritaeniorhynchus gradually decreased. Conclusion The number of patients with Japanese encephalitis has been strongly associated with the occurrence and density of vector mosquitoes, and the importance of this infectious disease has been highlighted since 2010. The 2013 prediction indicated an increase after an initial decrease, although the ratio of the two mosquito species decreased. The increase in vector density may be due to changes in temperature and the environment. Thus, continuous prevalence prediction is warranted. PMID:25180145

  20. Using Domain Knowledge on Population Dynamics Modeling for Equation Discovery

    E-print Network

    Dzeroski, Saso

    a formalism for encoding population dynamics modeling knowledge that is more accessible to human expertsUsing Domain Knowledge on Population Dynamics Modeling for Equation Discovery Ljupco Todorovski limited portion of the expert knowledge about the observed system is used in the modeling process

  1. A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARMY ANT

    E-print Network

    Bath, University of

    A MATHEMATICAL MODEL S FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARMY ANT N # N.F. BRITTO Centre for the population dynamics of the army ant c Eciton burchelli on Barro Colorado Island in Panama was set up. Introduction Army ants are among the most spectacular of social animals, living in organised r f colonies

  2. Dynamic prediction by landmarking in competing risks.

    PubMed

    Nicolaie, M A; van Houwelingen, J C; de Witte, T M; Putter, H

    2013-05-30

    We propose an extension of the landmark model for ordinary survival data as a new approach to the problem of dynamic prediction in competing risks with time-dependent covariates. We fix a set of landmark time points tLM within the follow-up interval. For each of these landmark time points tLM , we create a landmark data set by selecting individuals at risk at tLM ; we fix the value of the time-dependent covariate in each landmark data set at tLM . We assume Cox proportional hazard models for the cause-specific hazards and consider smoothing the (possibly) time-dependent effect of the covariate for the different landmark data sets. Fitting this model is possible within the standard statistical software. We illustrate the features of the landmark modelling on a real data set on bone marrow transplantation. PMID:23086627

  3. Dynamic situation assessment and prediction (DSAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sisti, Alex F.

    2003-09-01

    The face of war has changed. We no longer have the luxury of planning campaigns against a known enemy operating under a well-understood doctrine, using conventional weapons and rules of engagement; all in a well-charted region. Instead, today's Air Force faces new, unforeseen enemies, asymmetric combat situations and unconventional warfare (Chem/Bio, co-location of military assets near civilian facilities, etc.). At the same time, the emergence of new Air Force doctrinal notions (e.g., Global Strike Task Force, Effects-Based Operations, the desire to minimize or eliminate any collateral damage, etc.)- while propounding the benefits that can be expected with the adoption of such concepts - also impose many new technical and operational challenges. Furthermore, future mission/battle commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous glut of available information, and still be expected to make quick-response decisions - and to quantify the effects of those decisions - all in the face of uncertainty. All these factors translate to the need for dramatic improvements in the way we plan, rehearse, execute and dynamically assess the status of military campaigns. This paper addresses these crucial and revolutionary requirements through the pursuit of a new simulation paradigm that allows a user to perform real-time dynamic situation assessment and prediction.

  4. QT Interval Prolongation Predicts Cardiovascular Mortality inan Apparently Healthy Population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Evert G. Schouten; Jacqueline M. Dekker; Peter Meppelink; Frans J. Kok

    2010-01-01

    Background. Inmyocardial infarction patients, heart rate-adjusted QT interval (QT), an electrocardiographic indicator ofsympathetic balance, isprognostic forsurvival. Methods andResults. Ina 28-year follow-up, theassociation betweenQT,andall-cause, cardiovascular, andischemic heartdisease mortality was studied ina population of3,091 apparently healthy Dutchcivil servants andtheir spouses,aged40-65 years,whoparticipated ina medical examination during 1953-1954. Moderate (QTc, 420-440 msec)andextensive (QTc, more than440msec)QTcprolongations significantly predict all-cause mortality during thefirst 15yearsamong men (adjusted

  5. Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bernt-Erik Sæther; Russell Lande; Steinar Engen; Henri Weimerskirch; Magnar Lillegård; Res Altwegg; Peter H. Becker; Thomas Bregnballe; Jon E. Brommer; Robin H. McCleery; Juha Merilä; Erik Nyholm; Wallace Rendell; Raleigh R. Robertson; Piotr Tryjanowski; Marcel E. Visser

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density

  6. Adaptive Dynamics in Games Played by Heterogeneous Populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yuri M. Kaniovski; Arkadii V. Kryazhimskii; H. Peyton Young

    2000-01-01

    Consider a population of agents who play a game through repeated interactions, and adapt their behavior based on information about other agents' previous behavior. The standard way of modeling such a process is to assume that everyone in the population is governed by the same adaptive rule, e.g., best response, imitation, or the replicator dynamic. This paper studies heterogeneous populations

  7. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, D.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  8. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species. PMID:25360620

  9. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few topics have attracted the attention of ecologists more than fluctuations in the numbers of plants and animals through time and their variation in abundance through space. nderstanding population fluctuations, and thus population conservation, requires understanding the links ...

  10. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  11. POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of Ips pini and Ips grandicollis in Red Pine

    E-print Network

    Erbilgin, Nadir

    POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of Ips pini and Ips grandicollis in Red Pine PlantationsÐ1051 (2002) ABSTRACT We sampled bark beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) populations in 17 declining and healthy red pine plantations in Wisconsin over 3 yr. We tested for potential relationships among numbers

  12. Population Dynamics of Diploid and Hexaploid Populations of a Perennial Herb

    PubMed Central

    Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2007-01-01

    Background and Aims Despite the recent enormous increase in the number of studies on polyploid species, no studies to date have explored the population dynamics of these taxa. It is thus not known whether the commonly reported differences in single life-history traits between taxa of different ploidy levels result in differences in population dynamics. Methods This study explores differences in single life-history traits and in the complete life cycle between populations of different ploidy levels and compares these differences with differences observed between different habitat types and years. Diploid and hexaploid populations of a perennial herb, Aster amellus, are used as the study system. Transition matrix models were used to describe the dynamics of the populations, and population growth rates, elasticity values and life-table response experiments were used to compare the dynamics between populations and years. Key Results The results indicate that between-year variation in population dynamics is much larger than variation between different ploidy levels and different habitat conditions. Significant differences exist, however, in the structure of the transition matrices, indicating that the dynamics of the different ploidy levels are different. Strong differences in probability of extinction of local populations were also found, with hexaploid populations having higher probability than diploid populations, indicating strong potential differences in persistence of these populations. Conclusions This is the first study on complete population dynamics of plants of different ploidy levels. This knowledge will help to understand the ability of new ploidy levels to spread into new areas and persist there, and the interactions of different ploidy levels in secondary contact zones. This knowledge will also contribute to understanding of interactions of different ploidy levels with other plant species or other interacting organisms such as pollinators or herbivores. PMID:17881342

  13. Phase-space approach to multi-population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Budko, Neil V

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneous deterministic dynamics of multiple populations described by a large set of ODE's is considered in the phase space of population sizes and ODE's parameters. The problem is formulated as a multidimensional phase-space conservation law and is solved explicitly for non-interacting multi-population models. Solutions for populations competing for a limited resource and populations with migration are obtained by simple iterative methods. The proposed approach also allows considering phase-space interaction between populations, which is intractable by other methods.

  14. Differences in population dynamics and potential impacts of a freshwater invader driven by temporal habitat stability

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lyubov E. Burlakova; Dianna K. Padilla; Alexander Y. Karatayev; David N. Hollas; Leah D. Cartwright; Kevin D. Nichol

    2010-01-01

    Understanding population dynamics and population regulation of invasive species is critical for predicting their effects on\\u000a native ecosystems as well as for control strategies. Many species of gastropod in the genus Pomacea are successful aquatic invaders that have caused economic and ecological impacts in Southeastern Asia where their large fecundity\\u000a and broad reproductive window helps them to colonize and take

  15. Territory dynamics in a sage sparrow population: are shifts in site use adaptive?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kenneth L. Petersen; Louis B. Best

    1987-01-01

    In 1981–1985, we studied territory dynamics in a southeastern Idaho sage sparrow population to evaluate the hypothesis that territory shifts represent adaptive adjustments in site use. We predicted that shifts should (1) result in changes in territory characteristics, (2) be influenced by previous reproductive success and result in greater success, and (3) decline in magnitude for individual males over time.

  16. Evolution of exploitation ecosystems I. Predation, foraging ecology and population dynamics in herbivores

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lauri Oksanen

    1992-01-01

    Summary  The hypothesis of exploitation ecosystems was reanalysed using the model of Armstrong (1979) which simultaneously deals with population dynamics and evolution. The results indicate that the prediction of Oksanenet al. (1981) of strict predation limitation of herbivores in productive ecosystems does not hold for coevolved systems. Depending on the nature of herbivore-carnivore coevolution, herbivore biomass may level off at a

  17. Developing methods to assess and predict the population level effects of environmental contaminants.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Springman, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies--assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants--moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

  18. An informational framework for human population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    B. M. Dolgonosov; V. I. Naidenov

    2006-01-01

    Human civilization is considered a system producing and storing useful information (knowledge). Starting from the fact that biological parameters of humans (concerning, first of all, properties of genome and brain) were little changed over the past million years, we find that: (1) human population increases exponentially with storing knowledge (if there are no environmental limitations); (2) population size is proportional

  19. Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Andrei Rogers

    1986-01-01

    This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional\\/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated, together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules. The parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a

  20. Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

    PubMed Central

    Volz, Erik M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

  1. Complex population dynamics and the coalescent under neutrality.

    PubMed

    Volz, Erik M

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the coalescent effective population size N(e) can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between N(e) and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of N(e) such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

  2. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  3. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  4. Dynamic branch prediction and control speculation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Theo Ungerer; Borut Robiÿ; Borut Robic

    2007-01-01

    Branch prediction schemes have become an integral part of today's superscalar processors. They are one of the key issues in enhancing the performance of processors. Pipeline stalls due to conditional branches are one of the most significant impediments to realise the performance potential of superscalar processors. Many schemes for branch prediction, that can effectively and accurately predict the outcome of

  5. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Maslov, Sergei

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are constrained by the availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by the reduction in size of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent property of the population dynamics in our system are cyclic "diversity waves" triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity in the environment peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Population ...

  6. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    PubMed

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samo?lova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns. PMID:24175380

  7. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  8. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  9. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

  10. Phenotypic Variance Predicts Symbiont Population Densities in Corals: A Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    van Woesik, Robert; Shiroma, Kazuyo; Koksal, Semen

    2010-01-01

    Background We test whether the phenotypic variance of symbionts (Symbiodinium) in corals is closely related with the capacity of corals to acclimatize to increasing seawater temperatures. Moreover, we assess whether more specialist symbionts will increase within coral hosts under ocean warming. The present study is only applicable to those corals that naturally have the capacity to support more than one type of Symbiodinium within the lifetime of a colony; for example, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. Methodology/Principal Findings The population dynamics of competing Symbiodinium symbiont populations were projected through time in coral hosts using a novel, discrete time optimal–resource model. Models were run for two Atlantic Ocean localities. Four symbiont populations, with different environmental optima and phenotypic variances, were modeled to grow, divide, and compete in the corals under seasonal fluctuations in solar insolation and seawater temperature. Elevated seawater temperatures were input into the model 1.5°C above the seasonal summer average, and the symbiont population response was observed for each location. The models showed dynamic fluctuations in Symbiodinium populations densities within corals. Population density predictions for Lee Stocking Island, the Bahamas, where temperatures were relatively homogenous throughout the year, showed a dominance of both type 2, with high phenotypic variance, and type 1, a high-temperature and high-insolation specialist. Whereas the densities of Symbiodinium types 3 and 4, a high-temperature, low-insolation specialist, and a high-temperature, low-insolation generalist, remained consistently low. Predictions for Key Largo, Florida, where environmental conditions were more seasonally variable, showed the coexistence of generalists (types 2 and 4) and low densities of specialists (types 1 and 3). When elevated temperatures were input into the model, population densities in corals at Lee Stocking Island showed an emergence of high-temperature specialists. However, even under high temperatures, corals in the Florida Keys were dominated by generalists. Conclusions/Significance Predictions at higher seawater temperatures showed endogenous shuffling and an emergence of the high-temperature Symbiodinium specialists, even though their phenotypic variance was low. The model shows that sustaining these “hidden” specialists becomes advantageous under thermal stress conditions, and shuffling symbionts may increase the corals' capacity to acclimatize but not adapt to climatechange–induced ocean warming. PMID:20169202

  11. VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS

    E-print Network

    Rakha, Hesham A.

    VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS by Hesham Rakha1 , Member, Setti, and Van Aerde 2 ABSTRACT The paper presents a simple vehicle dynamics model for estimating and deceleration behavior contradicts basic vehicle dynamics. It is not clear at this point if this difference

  12. Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Rebecca S. Rudicell; James Holland Jones; Emily E. Wroblewski; Gerald H. Learn; Yingying Li; Joel D. Robertson; Elizabeth Greengrass; Falk Grossmann; Shadrack Kamenya; Lilian Pintea; Deus C. Mjungu; Elizabeth V. Lonsdorf; Anna Mosser; Clarence Lehman; D. Anthony Collins; Brandon F. Keele; Jane Goodall; Beatrice H. Hahn; Anne E. Pusey; Michael L. Wilson

    2010-01-01

    Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes

  13. Population dynamic consequences of competition within and between age classes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. M. Nisbet; L. C. Onyiah

    1994-01-01

    We investigate the population dynamics of a semivoltine species whose juvenile development takes two years to complete, and is followed by a very short reproductive adult stage. Reproduction is synchronized so at any given time the juvenile population consists of two cohorts. Coexistence of the two cohorts requires that the strength of intea-cohort competition exceeds that of inter-cohort competition, an

  14. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  15. Transoceanic Migration, Spatial Dynamics, and Population Linkages of White Sharks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ramón Bonfil; Michael Meÿer; Michael C. Scholl; Ryan Johnson; Shannon O'Brien; Herman Oosthuizen; Stephan Swanson; Deon Kotze; Michael Paterson

    2005-01-01

    The large-scale spatial dynamics and population structure of marine top predators are poorly known. We present electronic tag and photographic identification data showing a complex suite of behavioral patterns in white sharks. These include coastal return migrations and the fastest known transoceanic return migration among swimming fauna, which provide direct evidence of a link between widely separated populations in South

  16. Physiologically structured cell population dynamic models with applications to combined

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    cytotoxic drugs in the organism. An age-structured PDE cell population model has been designed with drug by cytotoxic drugs. The possi- bility to describe the effects of other drugs, cytostatic (includingPhysiologically structured cell population dynamic models with applications to combined drug

  17. Atlantic bluefin tuna: population dynamics, ecology, fisheries and management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jean-Marc Fromentin; Joseph E Powers

    2005-01-01

    Both old and new information on the biology and ecology of Atlantic bluefin tuna have confronted scientists with research challenges: research needs to be connected to current stock-assessment and management issues. We review recent studies on habitat, migrations and population structure, stressing the importance of electronic tagging results in the modification of our perception of bluefin tuna population dynamics and

  18. Population dynamics of grey partridge (Perdix perdix) in northern Italy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniela Montagna; Alberto Meriggi

    1991-01-01

    Population dynamics of grey partridge was studied from 1982 to 1986 in northern Italy in order to evaluate fluctuations in density and the relationships between population parameters and climatic factors. The general trend was a clear decrease both in spring and summer density after 1984, weighting 34.6% and 22.2% respec tively, mainly due to severe winters. The reproductive success and

  19. Germination ecology and seed population dynamics of Digitalis purpurea

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. van Baalen

    1982-01-01

    The germination ecology and the dynamics of the generative reproduction in populations of Digitalis purpurea L. were investigated in the field as well as in experiments. Germination of fresh seeds in the dark on moist filter paper appeared to differ between populations. These differences were eliminated when a moist natural soil functioned as germination substrate. An interaction between the spectral

  20. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  1. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  2. A delayed-recruitment model of population dynamics, with an application to baleen whale populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Colin W. Clark

    1976-01-01

    This paper studies the delay equation xk+1=?xk+F(xk-ß), which has been employed as a model of baleen whale population dynamics. The two main questions discussed are (a) stability of equilibria, and (b) optimal exploitation policies.

  3. A Particle Population Control Method for Dynamic Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweezy, Jeremy; Nolen, Steve; Adams, Terry; Zukaitis, Anthony

    2014-06-01

    A general particle population control method has been derived from splitting and Russian Roulette for dynamic Monte Carlo particle transport. A well-known particle population control method, known as the particle population comb, has been shown to be a special case of this general method. This general method has been incorporated in Los Alamos National Laboratory's Monte Carlo Application Toolkit (MCATK) and examples of it's use are shown for both super-critical and sub-critical systems.

  4. Dynamics of Multiple Stellar Populations in Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Steve; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2015-03-01

    The results of numerous spectroscopic and photometric studies have revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in many globular clusters. In this paper we summarize the results of our recent studies on the dynamical evolution of multiple-population clusters, the implications of the structural properties of multiple-population clusters for the evolution of binary stars, and the possible contribution of globular clusters to the assembly of the Galactic halo.

  5. Population Dynamics of Metastable Growth-Rate Phenotypes

    PubMed Central

    Braun, Erez

    2013-01-01

    Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations). Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the intracellular and population processes calls for a new framework for population dynamics which is likely to be significant in a wide range of biological contexts, from evolution to cancer. PMID:24312571

  6. Spatio-temporal dynamics before population collapse

    E-print Network

    Dai, Lei, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01

    Theory predicts that the approach of catastrophic thresholds in natural systems may result in an increasingly slow recovery from small perturbations, a phenomenon called critical slowing down. In this thesis, we used ...

  7. Africa's population and family planning dynamics.

    PubMed

    Segal, A

    1993-01-01

    The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester Boserup, argue that population pressure results in agricultural innovations, Africa has yet to experience this phenomena. The youthful composition of the population guarantees continued population momentum. Fertility is enhanced by the cultural emphasis on perpetuating lineage and high fertility. Changes in reproductive behavior will depend on major social changes for women. PMID:12286949

  8. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters.

    PubMed

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-10-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, ?-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  9. Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation in public goods games

    PubMed Central

    Hauert, Christoph; Holmes, Miranda; Doebeli, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The emergence and abundance of cooperation in nature poses a tenacious and challenging puzzle to evolutionary biology. Cooperative behaviour seems to contradict Darwinian evolution because altruistic individuals increase the fitness of other members of the population at a cost to themselves. Thus, in the absence of supporting mechanisms, cooperation should decrease and vanish, as predicted by classical models for cooperation in evolutionary game theory, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma and public goods games. Traditional approaches to studying the problem of cooperation assume constant population sizes and thus neglect the ecology of the interacting individuals. Here, we incorporate ecological dynamics into evolutionary games and reveal a new mechanism for maintaining cooperation. In public goods games, cooperation can gain a foothold if the population density depends on the average population payoff. Decreasing population densities, due to defection leading to small payoffs, results in smaller interaction group sizes in which cooperation can be favoured. This feedback between ecological dynamics and game dynamics can generate stable coexistence of cooperators and defectors in public goods games. However, this mechanism fails for pairwise Prisoner's Dilemma interactions and the population is driven to extinction. Our model represents natural extension of replicator dynamics to populations of varying densities. PMID:16959650

  10. Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems

    E-print Network

    Tamas Bodai

    2014-08-05

    In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events. The likelihood of such binary events is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined system confirm a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement -- provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise -- previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes, namely, that 'exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable'; or in other words: rare extremes are more predictable than frequent typical events. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of data-driven prediction approximates the skill of model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors, and therefore stronger extremes are more predictable also in the latter situation. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based skill score when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability, it does that in a nontrivial manner.

  11. Complex Population Dynamics in Mussels Arising from Density-Linked Stochasticity

    PubMed Central

    Wootton, J. Timothy; Forester, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Population fluctuations are generally attributed to the deterministic consequences of strong non-linear interactions among organisms, or the effects of random stochastic environmental variation superimposed upon the deterministic skeleton describing population change. Analysis of the population dynamics of the mussel Mytilus californianus taken in 16 plots over 18-years found no evidence that these processes explained observed strong fluctuations. Instead, population fluctuations arose because environmental stochasticity varied with abundance, which we term density-linked stochasticity. This phenomenon arises from biologically relevant mechanisms: recruitment variation and transmission of disturbance among neighboring individuals. Density-linked stochasticity is probably present frequently in populations, as it arises naturally from several general ecological processes, including stage structure variation with density, ontogenetic niche shifts, and local transmission of stochastic perturbations. More thoroughly characterizing and interpreting deviations from the mean behavior of a system will lead to better ecological prediction and improved insight into the important processes affecting populations and ecosystems. PMID:24086617

  12. POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an

    E-print Network

    POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an Agroecosystem. Colorado potato beetle immigrated into both crops. The Ã?rst available crop had the earliest immigration of magnitude. Survivorship varied more between years than between crops. Colorado potato beetle did

  13. Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Benton, T G; Plaistow, S J; Beckerman, A P; Lapsley, C T; Littlejohns, S

    2005-07-01

    The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects. PMID:16006330

  14. Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Benton, T.G; Plaistow, S.J; Beckerman, A.P; Lapsley, C.T; Littlejohns, S

    2005-01-01

    The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects. PMID:16006330

  15. Population Processes in a Changing Climate: Extinction, Dispersal, and Metapopulation Dynamics of Desert Bighorn Sheep in California

    E-print Network

    Silver, Whendee

    , and subsequently demography, of desert bighorn sheep will be affected by predicted changes in climate in the coming persistence of desert-dwelling mountain sheep in California Chapter 2 55 Linking climate change and populationPopulation Processes in a Changing Climate: Extinction, Dispersal, and Metapopulation Dynamics

  16. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  17. Predictions of a population of cataclysmic variables in globular clusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Di Stefano, R.; Rappaport, S.

    1994-01-01

    We have studied the number of cataclysmic variables (CVs) that should be active in globular clusters during the present epoch as a result of binary formation via two-body tidal capture. We predict the orbital period and luminosity distributions of CVs in globular clusters. The results arebased on Monte Carlo simulations combined with evolution calculations appropriate to each system formed during the lifetime of two specific globular clusters, omega Cen and 47 Tuc. From our study of these two clusters, which represent the range of core densities and states of mass segregation that are likely to be interesting, we extrapolate our results to the Galactic globlular cluster system. Although there is at present little direct observational evidence of CVs in globular clusters, we find that there should be a large number of active systems. We predict that there should be more than approximately 100 CVs in both 47 Tuc and omega Cen and several thousand in the Galactic globular cluster system. These numbers are based on two-body processes alone and represent a lower bound on the number of systems that may have been formed as a result of stellar interaction within globular clusters. The relation between these calculations and the paucity of optically detected CVs in globular clusters is discussed. Should future observations fail to find convincing evidence of a substantial population of cluster CVs, then the two-body tidal capture scenario is likely to be seriously constrained. Of the CVs we espect in 47 Tuc and omega Cen, approximately 45 and 20, respectively, should have accretion luminosities above 10(exp 33) ergs/s. If one utilizes a relation for converting accretion luminosity to hard X-ray luminosity that is based on observations of Galactic plane CVs, even these sources will not exhibit X-ray luminosities above 10(exp 33) ergs/s. While we cannot account directly for the most luminous subset of the low-luminosity globular cluster X-ray sources without assuming an evolutionary pattern that is different from that of the majority of CVs in the disk, we are able to account for all of the observed lower luminosity subset of these sources, many of which have been recently discovered through ROSAT observations. In order for our predicted integrated cluster X-ray luminosities to be consistent with observational upper limits, the relation between accretion and X-ray luminosities should be something like that inferred from the Galactic plane population of CVs. Our calculations predict a large number of systems with L(sub acc) is less than 10(exp 32) ergs/s. Although our calculations imply that globular clusters should have an enhancement of CVs relative to the number thought to be present in the Galactic disk, this enhancement is at most roughly an order of magnitude, not comparable to the factor of approximately 100 for low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs).

  18. Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Berger, Kim Murray; Conner, Mary M

    2008-04-01

    Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by moving beyond estimating changes in vital rates to analyses of population-level impacts. PMID:18488620

  19. Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

    PubMed Central

    Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

    2012-01-01

    Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation. PMID:22355791

  20. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    PubMed

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). PMID:24373938

  1. Dynamic population coding in primary visual cortex

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Diego Gutnisky

    2009-01-01

    More than a century ago Ramon y Cajal pioneered the description of neural circuits. Currently, new techniques are being developed to streamline the characterization of entire neural circuits. Even if this 'connectome' approach is successful, it will represent only a static description of neural circuits. Thus, a fundamental question in neuroscience is to understand how information is dynamically represented by

  2. Dynamic Targets for Stock Market Prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Abdullah Al-Luhaib; Khaled Al-Ghoneim; Y. Al-Ohali

    2007-01-01

    Features from the Saudi Stock Market (SSM) have been examined to attempt to predict the direction of daily price changes. Backpropagation neural network has been applied to predict the direction of price changes for the listed stocks in SSM. The price change in SSM ranges between -10% and 10%. The target has a representation of three classes 1, -1 and

  3. Sequence tag-based analysis of microbial population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Abel, Sören; Abel Zur Wiesch, Pia; Chang, Hsiao-Han; Davis, Brigid M; Lipsitch, Marc; Waldor, Matthew K

    2015-03-01

    We describe sequence tag-based analysis of microbial populations (STAMP) for characterization of pathogen population dynamics during infection. STAMP analyzes the frequency changes of genetically 'barcoded' organisms to quantify population bottlenecks and infer the founding population size. Analyses of intraintestinal Vibrio cholerae revealed infection-stage and region-specific host barriers to infection and showed unexpected V. cholerae migration counter to intestinal flow. STAMP provides a robust, widely applicable analytical framework for high-confidence characterization of in vivo microbial dissemination. PMID:25599549

  4. Hemoglobin E: Distribution and population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Flatz; H. HU

    1967-01-01

    Hemoglobin E, an anomaly of the ß-chain of human hemoglobin, is widely distributed in Southeast Asia and adjacent areas. In some populations of Southeast Asia the frequency of the gene responsible for the production of HbE reaches values near 0.3. In view of the probable disadvantage of the HbE homozygote and the certain disadvantage of the double heterozygote for the

  5. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics

    E-print Network

    M. Khasin; M. I. Dykman

    2009-04-10

    Population extinction is a rare event which requires overcoming an effective barrier. We show that the extinction rate can be fragile: a small change in the system parameters leads to an exponentially strong change of the rate, with the barrier height depending on the parameters nonanalytically. General conditions of the fragility are established. The fragility is found in one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the SIS model. The analytical expressions are compared with simulations.

  6. Cougar Population Dynamics and Viability in the

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Increasing reports of human\\/cougar conflicts may suggest that cougars are increasing in the Pacific Northwest. We determined minimum relative densities and average fecundity, survival, and growth rate of an apparently increasing cougar population in northeastern Washington, USA; northern Idaho, USA; and southern British Columbia, Canada, from 1998 to 2003. Minimum relative densities declined from 1.47 cougars\\/ 100 km2 to 0.85

  7. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1-2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the "standard" mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results suggest that, in order to appropriately model early HIV/SIV dynamics, additional factors must be considered in the model development. These may include variability in monkey susceptibility to infection, within-host competition between different viruses for target cells at the initial site of virus replication in the mucosa, innate immune response, and possibly the inclusion of several different tissue compartments. The sobering news is that while an increase in model complexity is needed to explain the available experimental data, testing and rejection of more complex models may require more quantitative data than is currently available. PMID:25781919

  8. Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

  9. Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    JEROEN C. J. M. VAN DEN BERGH and PIET RIETVELD (; )

    2004-03-01

    This peer-reviewed article from BioScience journal is on the topic of population growth. We performed a meta-analysis on the basis of 69 past studies that have assessed a limit to the world population. The estimates of this limit range from 0.5 billion to 1 1021 billion people. A meta-analysis allows us to see what overall picture emerges when different methods, limiting factors, levels of aggregation, and data are taken into account. Limiting factors for the world population include water availability, energy, carbon, forest products, nonrenewable resources, heat removal, photosynthetic capacity, and the availability of land for food production. Methods employed in the population studies include spatial extrapolation, modeling of multiple regions, temporal extrapolation, actual supply of a resource, hypothetical modeling, and dynamic systems modeling. Many studies rely on important assumptions about the level of technology, the energy intake per person, and the available arable land. The meta-analysis employs both descriptive statistics and regression analysis. We used the findings of these analyses to propose a number of meta-estimates of limits to world population. When taking all studies into account, the best point estimate is 7.7 billion people; the lower and upper bounds, given current technology, are 0.65 billion and 98 billion people, respectively. We offer a range of other conditional estimates as well. An important conclusion of this study is that recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit.

  10. Density-dependent life history and the dynamics of small populations.

    PubMed

    Mugabo, Marianne; Perret, Samuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2013-11-01

    1. Small population dynamics depend importantly on the strength and shape of density dependence. Unfortunately, the lack of reliable life-history data often prevents to make accurate demographic predictions for populations regulated by density dependence. 2. We created a gradient from low to high densities in small experimental populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara) and investigated the shape and strength of the density dependence of life-history traits during a yearly cycle. We then analysed stochastic population dynamics using one-sex and two-sex age-structured matrix models. 3. Body growth and reproductive performances decreased with density, yearling and adult survival and body size at birth were density-independent, and juvenile survival increased with density. The density dependence of reproduction was partly explained by positive effects of body size on age at first reproduction and clutch size. 4. Parturition date decreased with density in sparse populations and then increased, providing one of the first empirical evidence of a component Allee effect in the phenology of reproduction. 5. Population growth rate (?) was most affected by variations in juvenile and yearling survival. However, density at equilibrium was most affected by juvenile access to reproduction and yearling clutch size. 6. Stochastic simulations revealed that negative density dependence buffers the effects of initial density on extinction probability, has positive effects on the persistence of sparse populations and interacts with sex ratio fluctuations to shape extinction dynamics. 7. This study demonstrates that negative density dependence modifies the dynamics of small populations and should be investigated together with Allee effects to predict extinction risks. PMID:23859253

  11. Synoptic-scale upwelling indices and predictions of phyto- and zooplankton populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Reyes, Marisol; Largier, John L.; Sydeman, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal upwelling is responsible for the biologically rich and productive ecosystems of coastal eastern boundary currents. In most studies of physical - biological interactions in these systems, upwelling statistics are computed on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales, whereas upwelling naturally occurs at high frequencies (days to weeks). This simplification of the upwelling process may misrepresent relationships between upwelling and biological populations. Based on 31 years (1982-2012) of hourly-measured winds and sea surface temperature at buoys off the central-northern California coast, we characterized upwelling and relaxation events at synoptic time scales, and used event-scale statistics to relate to local lower trophic level populations. We defined three metrics to quantify synoptic-scale upwelling: (i) Intensity, a measure of cumulative wind stress forcing during each upwelling event, (ii) SSTevent, a measure of the oceanic response to wind forcing, and (iii) Nutrient Upwelling Index (NUI), a measure of the nitrate availability at the surface during upwelling events. We compared cumulative values of Intensity and NUI, and average values of SSTevent during the peak of the upwelling season (April-June in central-northern California) to proxies of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a concentrations) and krill abundance to assess the abilities of high frequency upwelling indices to predict biology. Wind forcing alone (Intensity) did not explain population variability, but SSTevent and NUI showed excellent relationships to chlorophyll concentrations (44% and 54% of variance explained, respectively) and krill abundance (68% of variance explained). All relationships appeared to be dome-shaped, supporting the hypothesis that moderate upwelling and ocean temperature are optimal for these populations. SSTevent and NUI performed better than the traditional Bakun upwelling index in predicting populations. We conclude that investigating upwelling characteristics on event scales can improve understanding of lower trophic level dynamics in eastern boundary current systems.

  12. Facilitatory neural dynamics for predictive extrapolation

    E-print Network

    Lim, Hee Jin

    2009-06-02

    , with their dynamic sensitivity to the rate of change in the input, can serve as a neural basis for extrapolation. To test this hypothesis, computational and biologically inspired models are proposed in this dissertation. (1) The facilitatory activation model (FAM...

  13. Generalized Predictive Control Of.dynamic Systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. A. Hess; Y. C. Jun

    1988-01-01

    Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) describes an algorithm for the stable, adapti ve control of dynami c systems. In the algorithm, a control input is generated which minimiz es a quadratic cost function consisting of y(k +

  14. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. PMID:21905432

  15. Generating a dynamic synthetic population--using an age-structured two-sex model for household dynamics.

    PubMed

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  16. Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  17. Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

    PubMed Central

    Crawley, Michael J.; Brown, Susan L.

    2004-01-01

    We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that synchrony in this system is driven by at least three processes: small-scale, local forcing caused by soil disturbance, intermediate-scale forcing as a result of seed input, and large-scale climatic forcing (e.g. winter rainfall) that affects the motorway as a whole. PMID:15347513

  18. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  19. The 5:1 Neptune resonance: Dynamics and population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, R.; Kavelaars, J.; Gladman, B.; Petit, J.

    2014-07-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial, and previously unrecognized, population of objects, perhaps more populated than the 3:2 resonance. The resonances external to the `Classical' Kuiper belt are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, these resonances are significant Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) reservoirs; merely undiscovered due to their greater distances and other biases against detection. These 4 objects were detected by the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS), and our dynamical simulations find that 3 of them are resonant. Because the CFEPS survey is well characterized, we can use these detections to constrain the orbital distribution and population size of the 5:1 resonant objects. We further constrain our model population by requiring the KBOs to come to pericenter only within our detection limits, to avoid overestimation. Our population estimate for the 5:1 resonance is ˜3000^{+5000}_{-2000} objects with H_g<8 (diameter ˜170 km). This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90 % confidence. The small number of detected objects results in a such large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at ˜88 au. The trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance is not obvious. The resonance stability lifetimes of the known objects constrain the size of the source population. Determining the trapping efficiency and dynamical lifetimes of these resonant objects will provide cosmogonic insight. These object may represent a transient population of scattering objects or could be a population of objects trapped during the early formation of the bulk structure of the trans-neptunian region. The 5:1 resonant population is a cosmogonic lever which provides insight into the evolutionary history of the Solar System.

  20. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?s included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  1. In search of forage: predicting dynamic habitats of Mongolian gazelles using satellite-based estimates of vegetation productivity

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas Mueller; Kirk A. Olson; Todd K. Fuller; George B. Schaller; Martyn G. Murray; Peter Leimgruber

    2008-01-01

    Summary 1. Temporal variability in habitat suitability has important conservation and ecological implica- tions. In grasslands, changes in resource availability can occur at broad spatial scales and enlarge area requirements of ungulate populations, which increases their vulnerability to habitat loss and fragmentation. Understanding and predicting these dynamics, although critical, has received little attention so far. 2. We investigated habitat dynamics

  2. Predicting the throughput of multiprocessor applications under dynamic workload

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter Poplavko; Marc Geilen; Twan Basten

    2010-01-01

    This work contributes to throughput calculation for real-time multiprocessor applications experiencing dynamic workload variations. We focus on a method to predict the system throughput when processing an arbitrarily long data frame given the meta-characteristics of the workload in that frame. This is useful for different purposes, such as resource allocation or dynamic voltage scaling in embedded systems. An accurate enough

  3. Predicting Reading Ability for Bilingual Latino Children Using Dynamic Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petersen, Douglas B.; Gillam, Ronald B.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the predictive validity of a dynamic assessment designed to evaluate later risk for reading difficulty in bilingual Latino children at risk for language impairment. During kindergarten, 63 bilingual Latino children completed a dynamic assessment nonsense-word recoding task that yielded pretest to posttest gain scores,…

  4. Nonparametric Link Prediction in Dynamic Networks Purnamrita Sarkar

    E-print Network

    Jordan, Michael I.

    Nonparametric Link Prediction in Dynamic Networks Purnamrita Sarkar psarkar the author was at Yahoo! Research) Abstract We propose a nonparametric link prediction algorithm movies or songs to users, market analysis, and so on. However, state-of-the-art meth- ods suffer from two

  5. Dynamic knee loads during gait predict proximal tibial bone distribution

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Debra E. Hurwitz; Dale R. Sumner; Thomas P. Andriacchi; David A. Sugar

    1998-01-01

    This study tested the validity of the prediction of dynamic knee loads based on gait measurements. The relationship between the predicted loads at the knee and the distribution of bone between the medial and lateral sides of the tibia was examined. The motion and external forces and moments at the knee were measured during gait and a statically determinate muscle

  6. Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks

    E-print Network

    Blower, Sally

    Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks *Travis C. Porco, U.S.A. Summary: HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis out- breaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic

  7. SPIDER EFFECTS ON PLANTHOPPER MORTALITY, DISPERSAL, AND SPATIAL POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James T. Cronin; Kyle J. Haynes; Forrest Dillemuth

    2004-01-01

    Nonlethal (trait-mediated) effects of predators on prey populations, partic- ularly with regard to prey dispersal, scarcely have been considered in spatial ecological studies. In this study, we report on the effects of spider predators on the mortality, dispersal, and spatial population dynamics of Prokelisia crocea planthoppers (Hemiptera: Delphac- idae) in a prairie landscape. Based on a three-generation survey of host-plant

  8. Factors Affecting Dynamic Populations (title provided or enhanced by cataloger)

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This lesson plan teaches students that populations are dynamic with identifiable characteristics and measurable growth patterns. Factors of population survival that are taught include immigration and emigration, environmental resistance, carrying capacity, and homeostasis. The lesson plan provides objectives, skills, time needed, a content outline, materials, and significant terms. The overarching goal is for students to develop an understanding of the interdependence of all organisms and the need for conserving natural resources.

  9. Components of the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in a Multi-Breed Sheep Population.

    PubMed

    Daetwyler, H D; Kemper, K E; van der Werf, J H J; Hayes, B J

    2012-05-14

    In genome-wide association studies, failure to remove variation due to population structure results in spurious associations. In contrast, for predictions of future phenotypes or estimated breeding values from dense SNP data, exploiting population structure arising from relatedness can actually increase the accuracy of prediction in some cases, for example when the selection candidates are offspring of the reference population where the prediction equation was derived. In populations with large effective population size or with multiple breeds and strains, it has not been demonstrated whether and when accounting for or removing variation due to population structure will affect the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our aim in this study was to determine whether accounting for population structure would increase the accuracy of genomic predictions, both within and across breeds. First, we have attempted to decompose the accuracy of genomic prediction into contributions from population structure or linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and quantitative trait loci (QTL) using a diverse multi-breed sheep data set, genotyped for 48,640 SNP. We demonstrate that SNP from a single chromosome can achieve up to 86% of the accuracy for genomic predictions using all SNP. This result suggests that most of the prediction accuracy is due to population structure, because a single chromosome is expected to capture relationships but is unlikely to contain all QTL. We then explored principle component analysis (PCA) as an approach to disentangle the respective contributions of population structure and LD between SNP and QTL to the accuracy of genomic predictions. Results showed that fitting an increasing number of PCs (as covariates) decreased within breed accuracy until a lower plateau was reached. We speculate that this plateau is a measure of the accuracy due to LD. In conclusion, a large proportion of the accuracy for genomic predictions in our data was due to variation associated with population structure. Surprisingly, accounting for this structure generally decreased the accuracy of across breed genomic predictions. PMID:22585798

  10. Components of the accuracy of genomic prediction in a multi-breed sheep population.

    PubMed

    Daetwyler, H D; Kemper, K E; van der Werf, J H J; Hayes, B J

    2012-10-01

    In genome-wide association studies, failure to remove variation due to population structure results in spurious associations. In contrast, for predictions of future phenotypes or estimated breeding values from dense SNP data, exploiting population structure arising from relatedness can actually increase the accuracy of prediction in some cases, for example, when the selection candidates are offspring of the reference population where the prediction equation was derived. In populations with large effective population size or with multiple breeds and strains, it has not been demonstrated whether and when accounting for or removing variation due to population structure will affect the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our aim in this study was to determine whether accounting for population structure would increase the accuracy of genomic predictions, both within and across breeds. First, we have attempted to decompose the accuracy of genomic prediction into contributions from population structure or linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and QTL using a diverse multi-breed sheep (Ovis aries) data set, genotyped for 48,640 SNP. We demonstrate that SNP from a single chromosome can achieve up to 86% of the accuracy for genomic predictions using all SNP. This result suggests that most of the prediction accuracy is due to population structure, because a single chromosome is expected to capture relationships but is unlikely to contain all QTL. We then explored principal component analysis (PCA) as an approach to disentangle the respective contributions of population structure and LD between SNP and QTL to the accuracy of genomic predictions. Results showed that fitting an increasing number of principle components (PC; as covariates) decreased within breed accuracy until a lower plateau was reached. We speculate that this plateau is a measure of the accuracy due to LD. In conclusion, a large proportion of the accuracy for genomic predictions in our data was due to variation associated with population structure. Surprisingly, accounting for this structure generally decreased the accuracy of across breed genomic predictions. PMID:23038744

  11. Effectiveness of Genomic Prediction of Maize Hybrid Performance in Different Breeding Populations and Environments

    PubMed Central

    Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Atlin, Gary N.; Hickey, John M.; Crossa, Jose; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Sorrells, Mark E.; Raman, Babu; Cairns, Jill E.; Tarekegne, Amsal; Semagn, Kassa; Beyene, Yoseph; Grudloyma, Pichet; Technow, Frank; Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F2-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F2-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set. PMID:23173094

  12. Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Eric Post (Pennsylvania State University; )

    2009-06-01

    Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article, we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantifying the effects of climate change at the species level. The global population dynamics approach, which relies on distribution-wide, data-driven analyses of dynamics, goes beyond quantifying biotic interactions in population dynamics to identify hot spots of response to climate change. Such hot spots highlight populations or locations within speciesâ?? distributions that are particularly sensitive to climate change, and identification of them should focus conservation and management efforts. An important result of the analyses highlighted here is pronounced variation at the species level in the strength and direction of population responses to warming. Although this variation complicates species-level predictions of responses to climate change, the global population dynamics approach may improve our understanding of the complex implications of climate change for species persistence or extinction.

  13. Improving structure-based function prediction using molecular dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Glazer, Dariya S.; Radmer, Randall J.; Altman, Russ B.

    2009-01-01

    Summary The number of molecules with solved three-dimensional structure but unknown function is increasing rapidly. Particularly problematic are novel folds with little detectable similarity to molecules of known function. Experimental assays can determine the functions of such molecules, but are time-consuming and expensive. Computational approaches can identify potential functional sites; however, these approaches generally rely on single static structures and do not use information about dynamics. In fact, structural dynamics can enhance function prediction: we coupled molecular dynamics simulations with structure-based function prediction algorithms that identify Ca2+ binding sites. When applied to 11 challenging proteins, both methods showed substantial improvement in performance, revealing 22 more sites in one case and 12 more in the other, with a modest increase in apparent false positives. Thus, we show that treating molecules as dynamic entities improves the performance of structure-based function prediction methods. PMID:19604472

  14. Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

    2014-04-01

    Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.

  15. Genomic predictability of interconnected bi-parental maize populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations leads to new challenges for genomic selection (GS) not encountered in animal breeding. One important open question is how the training population (TP) should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small bi-parental families. Knowing the pr...

  16. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherbakov, Robert

    The study of earthquakes is one of the most interesting and challenging problems in modern geophysics. Understanding dynamics, mechanical properties, chemistry, and other aspects of earthquake phenomena is crucial for both the scientific community and society at large. As a consequence, the development of different prediction techniques is of tremendous significance for many aspects of our life. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction is a review of methods and techniques developed by the group of V.I. Keilis-Borok concerning intermediate-term predictions based on premonitory seismicity patterns. The book is well organized, clearly written, and can be used as a reference for many concepts and ideas in the field of mathematical prediction of catastrophic events. It can also serve as a “cookbook” for applying several prediction algorithms developed by the authors.

  17. Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Adrian E. Raftery; Geof H. Givens; Judith E. Zeh

    1995-01-01

    We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint premodel distribution on all the model inputs and outputs and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint postmodel

  18. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department of Mathematics Towson University May 24, 2008 Mike O'Leary (Towson University) A Diffusion Model in Genetics May determine the long-time behavior of the total genetic variance? Portions of this work are joint with Judith

  19. The HIV coreceptor switch: a population dynamical perspective

    E-print Network

    Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    for CCR5 to a preference for CXCR4 in w50% of infected individuals. The change in coreceptor usage resolved, the population dynamical mechanisms leading to the emergence of CXCR4-using HIV variants in some receptors CCR5 and CXCR4 [1]. Over the course of the infection, the coreceptor usage of HIV changes from

  20. Population Dynamics: A Curriculum Guide for Elementary and Secondary Teachers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byrne, Robert; And Others

    Presented is one of five Wildlife and Environmental Education Teaching units that deal with resource management in a way that includes man as user and manager of natural resources. Included are activities (with their suggested grade levels) that deal with population dynamics. Fifteen supportive activities are described. A list of recommended films…

  1. Ecology and Population Dynamics of Colobus guereza in Ethiopia

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. I. M. Dunbar; E. P. Dunbar

    1974-01-01

    The ecology of Colobus guereza in Ethiopia is described. Data on group size from a number of localities are given, and groups are typically found to be one-male groups of 5-8 animals. The dynamics of one population are discussed with particular reference to birth and death rates and immigration and emigration. Daily activity patterns and use of home ranges are

  2. Life history and population dynamics of Atriplex triangularis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. A. Khan; I. A. Ungar

    1986-01-01

    Life history and population dynamics were examined for an annual halophyte, Atriplex triangularis Willd., in an inland salt marsh at Rittman, Ohio. The effect of salinity and precipitation on survival, growth, and reproduction of Atriplex triangularis under field conditions was determined. Early germination enhanced the possibility of survival and reproduction of this species. No distinct ecotypes were found, but various

  3. Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters

    E-print Network

    D. Vanbeveren; H. Belkus; J. Van Bever; N. Mennekens

    2008-01-17

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

  4. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, ? Car, ? Pup, ?2 Velorum and WR 140.

  5. Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters

    E-print Network

    Vanbeveren, D; Van Bever, J; Mennekens, N

    2008-01-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

  6. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  7. Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P. Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  8. STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Travis J. Lybbert; Christopher B. Barrett; Solomon Desta; D. Layne Coppock

    2002-01-01

    The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population. These data yield several novel findings. Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific

  9. Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales

    E-print Network

    Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in prairie wetlands and developed a bioenergetics model to estimate-de-boules (Pimephales promelas) dans les milieux humides des prairies et mis au point un modèle de bioénergétique pour

  10. Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics Fr´ed´erique Billy1 , Jean. The constraints at stake, met everyday in the clinic of cancers, are related mainly to resistance to treatment models used in cancer treatment in the last decades, together with the biological phenomena that can

  11. Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    "Because rocket engines operate under extreme temperature and pressure, they present a unique challenge to designers who must test and simulate the technology. To this end, CRAFT Tech Inc., of Pipersville, Pennsylvania, won Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Marshall Space Flight Center to develop software to simulate cryogenic fluid flows and related phenomena. CRAFT Tech enhanced its CRUNCH CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software to simulate phenomena in various liquid propulsion components and systems. Today, both government and industry clients in the aerospace, utilities, and petrochemical industries use the software for analyzing existing systems as well as designing new ones."

  12. Population pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic modelling in oncology: a tool for predicting clinical response

    PubMed Central

    Bender, Brendan C; Schindler, Emilie; Friberg, Lena E

    2015-01-01

    In oncology trials, overall survival (OS) is considered the most reliable and preferred endpoint to evaluate the benefit of drug treatment. Other relevant variables are also collected from patients for a given drug and its indication, and it is important to characterize the dynamic effects and links between these variables in order to improve the speed and efficiency of clinical oncology drug development. However, the drug-induced effects and causal relationships are often difficult to interpret because of temporal differences. To address this, population pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling and parametric time-to-event (TTE) models are becoming more frequently applied. Population PKPD and TTE models allow for exploration towards describing the data, understanding the disease and drug action over time, investigating relevance of biomarkers, quantifying patient variability and in designing successful trials. In addition, development of models characterizing both desired and adverse effects in a modelling framework support exploration of risk-benefit of different dosing schedules. In this review, we have summarized population PKPD modelling analyses describing tumour, tumour marker and biomarker responses, as well as adverse effects, from anticancer drug treatment data. Various model-based metrics used to drive PD response and predict OS for oncology drugs and their indications are also discussed. PMID:24134068

  13. Population coding of tone stimuli in auditory cortex: dynamic rate vector analysis.

    PubMed

    Bartho, Peter; Curto, Carina; Luczak, Artur; Marguet, Stephan L; Harris, Kenneth D

    2009-11-01

    Neural representations of even temporally unstructured stimuli can show complex temporal dynamics. In many systems, neuronal population codes show 'progressive differentiation', whereby population responses to different stimuli grow further apart during a stimulus presentation. Here we analysed the response of auditory cortical populations in rats to extended tones. At onset (up to 300 ms), tone responses involved strong excitation of a large number of neurons; during sustained responses (after 500 ms) overall firing rate decreased, but most cells still showed statistically significant rate modulation. Population vector trajectories evoked by different tone frequencies expanded rapidly along an initially similar trajectory in the first tens of milliseconds after tone onset, later diverging to smaller amplitude fixed points corresponding to sustained responses. The angular difference between onset and sustained responses to the same tone was greater than between different tones in the same stimulus epoch. No clear orthogonalization of responses was found with time, and predictability of the stimulus from population activity also decreased during this period compared with onset. The question of whether population activity grew more or less sparse with time depended on the precise mathematical sense given to this term. We conclude that auditory cortical population responses to tones differ from those reported in many other systems, with progressive differentiation not seen for sustained stimuli. Sustained acoustic stimuli are typically not behaviorally salient: we hypothesize that the dynamics we observe may instead allow an animal to maintain a representation of such sounds, at low energetic cost. PMID:19840110

  14. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

  15. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions

    E-print Network

    Garcia-Algarra, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, Jose Maria; Ramasco, Jose J

    2013-01-01

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external per- turbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifi- cations of the logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so called r - K formulation of logistic equation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism inspired by the logistic equation but avoiding singularities. The model is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. Furthermore, each term of our model has a more direct ecological interpretation, which can...

  16. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  17. Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Robert C; Miller, Philip S; Nyhus, Philip J; Pollak, J P; Raboy, Becky E; Zeigler, Sara L

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  18. Identifying interactions among salmon populations from observed dynamics.

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Masami

    2008-01-01

    A simple direct correlation analysis of individual counts between different populations often fails to characterize the true nature of population interactions; however, the most common data type available for population studies is count data, and one of the most important objectives in population and community ecology is to identify interactions among populations. Here, I examine the dynamics of the spawning abundance of fall-run chinook salmon spawning within the California Central Valley and the Klamath Basin, California, and the Columbia River Basin, Oregon. I analyzed multiple time series from each watershed using a multivariate time-series technique called maximum autocorrelation factor analysis. This technique was used for finding common underlying trends in escapement abundance within each watershed. These trends were further investigated to identify potential resource-mediated interactions among the three groups of salmon. Each group is affected by multiple trends that are likely to be affected by environmental factors. In addition, some of the trends are coherent with each other, and the differences in population dynamics originate from variations in the relative importance of these trends among the three watershed groups. PMID:18376540

  19. Stochastic simulation of structured skin cell population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nakaoka, Shinji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-03-01

    The epidermis is the outmost skin tissue. It operates as a first defense system to process inflammatory signals and responds by producing inflammatory mediators that promote the recruitment of immune cells. Various skin diseases such as atopic dermatitis occur as a result of the defect of proper skin barrier function and successive impaired inflammatory responses. The onset of such a skin disease links to the disturbed epidermal homeostasis regulated by appropriate self-renewal and differentiation of epidermal stem cells. The theory of physiologically structured population models provides a versatile framework to formulate mathematical models which describe the growth dynamics of a cell population such as the epidermis. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to implement stochastic simulation for a class of physiologically structured population models. We demonstrate that the developed algorithm is applicable to several cell population models and typical age-structured population models. On the basis of the developed algorithm, we investigate stochastic dynamics of skin cell populations and spread of inflammation. It is revealed that demographic stochasticity can bring considerable impact on the outcome of inflammation spread at the tissue level. PMID:23255068

  20. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  1. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals.

    PubMed

    Zipkin, Elise F; Thorson, James T; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard B; Letcher, Benjamin H; Royle, J Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark-recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark-recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources. PMID:24649642

  2. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

  3. How predictable : modeling rates of change in individuals and populations

    E-print Network

    Krumme, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    This thesis develops methodologies to measure rates of change in individual human behavior, and to capture statistical regularities in change at the population level, in three pieces: i) a model of individual rate of change ...

  4. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    PubMed

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. PMID:25173080

  5. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  6. Limits and Uses of Dynamical Predictions of Meteorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyon, B.

    2012-12-01

    The overall technical capabilities now exist to make real time, seasonal drought forecasts on a near global scale, but how skillful are such predictions? In this talk the skill of seasonal drought indicator predictions based on a combination of real time observations and dynamical model seasonal forecasts is first evaluated over the US and Mexico. The relative contributions of predictive skill from sea surface temperatures and initialed land surface and atmospheric conditions is discussed relative to baseline predictability resulting from the inherent persistence of the indicators. Web-based tools which display such predictions are then briefly described. Finally, the challenges in using such predictions in decision-making settings is described. In many applications, more detailed or tailored information is desired. Examples of the latter are based on IRI-related projects on fire early warning in Kalimantan, food security outlooks in East Africa and research towards drought early warning in the agriculture sector in the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

  7. Host-driven population dynamics in an herbivorous insect.

    PubMed

    Ylioja, T; Roininen, H; Ayres, M P; Rousi, M; Price, P W

    1999-09-14

    Understanding the nature and relative importance of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) effects on population dynamics remains a central problem in ecology. Evaluation of these forces has been constrained by the lack of long time series of population densities and largely limited to populations chosen for their unique dynamics (e.g., outbreak insects). Especially in herbivore populations, the relative contributions of bottom-up and top-down effects (resources and natural enemies, respectively) have been difficult to compare because population data have rarely been combined with resource measurements. The feeding scars of a wood-mining herbivorous insect (Phytobia betulae Kangas; Diptera: Agromyzidae) of birch trees (Betula pendula and Betula pubescens) provided long time series data (47 and 65 years) of absolute abundance (larvae/tree) in replicated trees within replicated stands. Measurements of tree annual rings provided matching time series of host age and physiological status. Analyses showed a powerful exogenous effect of stand age on temporal variation in insect abundance (58 and 32% of the variance in two populations, respectively). With the additional effects of variation among trees, 77 and 64% of the total variance in abundance was attributable to exogenous bottom-up effects of host plants. Potential endogenous effects were evident as immediate linear density dependence, but only accounted for approximately 10% of the total variance. Abundance of Phytobia is primarily a function of disturbance history, which produces a mosaic of different aged birch stands that harbor Phytobia populations of different sizes. Density-dependence tends to regulate local populations around levels determined by host suitability. PMID:10485895

  8. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    PubMed

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. PMID:21463613

  9. Against matching theory: Predictions of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Calvin, Nicholas T

    2015-05-01

    A selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics instantiates the idea that behavior evolves in response to selection pressure from the environment in the form of resource acquisition or threat escape or avoidance. The theory is implemented by a computer program that creates an artificial organism and animates it with a population of potential behaviors. The population undergoes selection, recombination, and mutation across generations, or ticks of time, which produces a continuous stream of behavior that can be studied as if it were the behavior of a live organism. Novel predictions of the evolutionary theory can be compared to predictions of matching theory in a critical experiment that arranges concurrent schedules with reinforcer magnitudes that vary across conditions in one component of the schedules but not the other. Matching theory and the evolutionary theory make conflicting predictions about the outcome of this critical experiment, such that the results must disconfirm at least one of the theories. PMID:25680328

  10. Predicting reading ability for bilingual Latino children using dynamic assessment.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Douglas B; Gillam, Ronald B

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the predictive validity of a dynamic assessment designed to evaluate later risk for reading difficulty in bilingual Latino children at risk for language impairment. During kindergarten, 63 bilingual Latino children completed a dynamic assessment nonsense-word recoding task that yielded pretest to posttest gain scores, residuum gain scores, and modifiability scores. At the end of first grade, the same participants completed criterion reading measures of word identification, decoding, and reading fluency. The dynamic assessment yielded high classification accuracy, with sensitivity and specificity at or above 80% for all three criterion reading measures, including 100% sensitivity for two out of the three first-grade measures. The dynamic assessment used in this study has promise as a means for predicting first-grade word-level reading ability in Latino, bilingual children. PMID:23629729

  11. Prediction-based Dynamic Energy Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xue; Ma, Jun-Jie; Wang, Sheng; Bi, Dao-Wei

    2007-01-01

    Energy consumption is a critical constraint in wireless sensor networks. Focusing on the energy efficiency problem of wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a method of prediction-based dynamic energy management. A particle filter was introduced to predict a target state, which was adopted to awaken wireless sensor nodes so that their sleep time was prolonged. With the distributed computing capability of nodes, an optimization approach of distributed genetic algorithm and simulated annealing was proposed to minimize the energy consumption of measurement. Considering the application of target tracking, we implemented target position prediction, node sleep scheduling and optimal sensing node selection. Moreover, a routing scheme of forwarding nodes was presented to achieve extra energy conservation. Experimental results of target tracking verified that energy-efficiency is enhanced by prediction-based dynamic energy management.

  12. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony. PMID:22961371

  13. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Yang, Rui; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso

    2011-04-15

    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea. PMID:21568562

  14. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Yang, Rui; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso

    2013-01-01

    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea and potential challenges are discussed. PMID:21568562

  15. Predictions versus measurements of turbocharger nonlinear dynamic response

    E-print Network

    Rivadeneira, Juan Carlos

    2006-08-16

    for predicting the dynamic shaft response of automotive turbochargers (TCs) supported on floating ring bearings. Waterfall spectra of measured shaft motions at the compressor and turbine ends of a test TC rotor evidences a complex response, showing synchronous... and subsynchronous vibration components for later comparisons to predicted shaft motions. The static performance of the floating ring bearings is analyzed with in-house software (XLSFRBThermal?), which considers thermal expansion of the shaft and bearing...

  16. Composite forces shape population dynamics of copepod crustaceans.

    PubMed

    Twombly, S; Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson

    2007-03-01

    Understanding the processes that control species abundance and distribution is a major challenge in ecology, yet for a large number of potentially important organisms, we know little about the biotic and abiotic factors that influence population size. One group of aquatic organisms that defies traditional demographic analyses is the Crustacea, particularly those with complex life cycles. We used likelihood techniques and information theoretics to evaluate a suite of models representing alternative hypotheses on factors controlling the abundance of two copepod crustaceans in a small, tropical floodplain lake. Quantitative zooplankton samples were collected at three stations in a Venezuelan floodplain lake from June through December 1984; the average sampling interval was two days. We constructed a series of models with stage structure that incorporated six biotic and abiotic covariates in various combinations to account for temporal changes in abundance of these target species and in their population growth rates. Our analysis produced several novel insights into copepod population dynamics. We found that multiple forces affected the abundance of particular stages, that these factors differed between species as well as among stages within each species, and that biotic processes had the largest effects on copepod population dynamics. Density dependence had a large effect on the survival of Oithona amazonica copepodites and on population growth rate of Diaptomus negrensis. PMID:17503594

  17. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.

    2011-01-01

    Background Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics. PMID:21829528

  18. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate. PMID:20349837

  19. Dynamic Inlet Distortion Prediction with a Combined Computational Fluid Dynamics and Distortion Synthesis Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norby, W. P.; Ladd, J. A.; Yuhas, A. J.

    1996-01-01

    A procedure has been developed for predicting peak dynamic inlet distortion. This procedure combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and distortion synthesis analysis to obtain a prediction of peak dynamic distortion intensity and the associated instantaneous total pressure pattern. A prediction of the steady state total pressure pattern at the Aerodynamic Interface Plane is first obtained using an appropriate CFD flow solver. A corresponding inlet turbulence pattern is obtained from the CFD solution via a correlation linking root mean square (RMS) inlet turbulence to a formulation of several CFD parameters representative of flow turbulence intensity. This correlation was derived using flight data obtained from the NASA High Alpha Research Vehicle flight test program and several CFD solutions at conditions matching the flight test data. A distortion synthesis analysis is then performed on the predicted steady state total pressure and RMS turbulence patterns to yield a predicted value of dynamic distortion intensity and the associated instantaneous total pressure pattern.

  20. A novel dynamic update framework for epileptic seizure prediction.

    PubMed

    Han, Min; Ge, Sunan; Wang, Minghui; Hong, Xiaojun; Han, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Epileptic seizure prediction is a difficult problem in clinical applications, and it has the potential to significantly improve the patients' daily lives whose seizures cannot be controlled by either drugs or surgery. However, most current studies of epileptic seizure prediction focus on high sensitivity and low false-positive rate only and lack the flexibility for a variety of epileptic seizures and patients' physical conditions. Therefore, a novel dynamic update framework for epileptic seizure prediction is proposed in this paper. In this framework, two basic sample pools are constructed and updated dynamically. Furthermore, the prediction model can be updated to be the most appropriate one for the prediction of seizures' arrival. Mahalanobis distance is introduced in this part to solve the problem of side information, measuring the distance between two data sets. In addition, a multichannel feature extraction method based on Hilbert-Huang transform and extreme learning machine is utilized to extract the features of a patient's preseizure state against the normal state. At last, a dynamic update epileptic seizure prediction system is built up. Simulations on Freiburg database show that the proposed system has a better performance than the one without update. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices. PMID:25050381

  1. A Novel Dynamic Update Framework for Epileptic Seizure Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Minghui; Hong, Xiaojun; Han, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Epileptic seizure prediction is a difficult problem in clinical applications, and it has the potential to significantly improve the patients' daily lives whose seizures cannot be controlled by either drugs or surgery. However, most current studies of epileptic seizure prediction focus on high sensitivity and low false-positive rate only and lack the flexibility for a variety of epileptic seizures and patients' physical conditions. Therefore, a novel dynamic update framework for epileptic seizure prediction is proposed in this paper. In this framework, two basic sample pools are constructed and updated dynamically. Furthermore, the prediction model can be updated to be the most appropriate one for the prediction of seizures' arrival. Mahalanobis distance is introduced in this part to solve the problem of side information, measuring the distance between two data sets. In addition, a multichannel feature extraction method based on Hilbert-Huang transform and extreme learning machine is utilized to extract the features of a patient's preseizure state against the normal state. At last, a dynamic update epileptic seizure prediction system is built up. Simulations on Freiburg database show that the proposed system has a better performance than the one without update. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices. PMID:25050381

  2. Structural Drift: The Population Dynamics of Sequential Learning

    PubMed Central

    Crutchfield, James P.; Whalen, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream “teacher” and then pass samples from the model to their downstream “student”. It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory. PMID:22685387

  3. Evolutionary dynamics of a multigroup fluctuating-population system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, D. P.; Arora, D.; Prasad, M. A.

    1993-03-01

    We studied the evolutionary dynamics of a population undergoing asexual reproduction in a flat-fitness landscape. The quantity of interest is the distribution of the overlap function q which is a measure of the similarity in the genome structure between two individuals. We obtain analytical expressions for , , and p(q) in a model with the following features: continuous time, fluctuating population divided into many compartments, and a finite number of genes per genome. A few special cases of interest are also discussed.

  4. Delayed induced silica defences in grasses and their potential for destabilising herbivore population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Jennifer J H; Lambin, Xavier; Massey, Fergus P; Reidinger, Stefan; Sherratt, Jonathan A; Smith, Matthew J; White, Andrew; Hartley, Sue E

    2012-10-01

    Some grass species mount a defensive response to grazing by increasing their rate of uptake of silica from the soil and depositing it as abrasive granules in their leaves. Increased plant silica levels reduce food quality for herbivores that feed on these grasses. Here we provide empirical evidence that a principal food species of an herbivorous rodent exhibits a delayed defensive response to grazing by increasing silica concentrations, and present theoretical modelling that predicts that such a response alone could lead to the population cycles observed in some herbivore populations. Experiments performed under greenhouse conditions revealed that the rate of deposition of silica defences in the grass Deschampsia caespitosa is a time-lagged, nonlinear function of grazing intensity and that, upon cessation of grazing, these defences take around one year to decay to within 5 % of control levels. Simple coupled grass-herbivore population models incorporating this functional response, and parameterised with empirical data, consistently predict population cycles for a wide range of realistic parameter values for a (Microtus) vole-grass system. Our results support the hypothesis that induced silica defences have the potential to strongly affect the population dynamics of their herbivores. Specifically, the feedback response we observed could be a driving mechanism behind the observed population cycles in graminivorous herbivores in cases where grazing levels in the field become sufficiently large and sustained to trigger an induced silica defence response. PMID:22526942

  5. Predicting Online Harassment Victimization among a Juvenile Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bossler, Adam M.; Holt, Thomas J.; May, David C.

    2012-01-01

    Online harassment can consist of threatening, worrisome, emotionally hurtful, or sexual messages delivered via an electronic medium that can lead victims to feel fear or distress much like real-world harassment and stalking. This activity is especially prevalent among middle and high school populations who frequently use technology as a means to…

  6. Predicting dynamic performance limits for servosystems with saturating nonlinearities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Webb, J. A., Jr.; Blech, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized treatment for a system with a single saturating nonlinearity is presented and compared with frequency response plots obtained from an analog model of the system. Once the amplitude dynamics are predicted with the limit lines, an iterative technique is employed to determine the system phase response. The saturation limit line technique is used in conjunction with velocity and acceleration limits to predict the performance of an electro-hydraulic servosystem containing a single-stage servovalve. Good agreement was obtained between predicted performance and experimental data.

  7. The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.; Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Read, Andrew F.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

    2013-01-01

    The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases. PMID:24244467

  8. Predator effects on prey population dynamics in open systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Barbara L. Peckarsky; Billie L. Kerans; Brad W. Taylor; Angus R. McIntosh

    2008-01-01

    Animal population dynamics in open systems are affected not only by agents of mortality and the influence of species interactions\\u000a on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss\\u000a rates of two mayfly species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience different abiotic\\u000a conditions

  9. Predictive markers in calpastatin for tenderness in commercial pig populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The identification of predictive DNA markers for pork quality would allow U.S. pork producers and breeders to more quickly and efficiently select genetically superior animals for production of consistent, high quality meat. Genome scans have identified QTL for tenderness on pig chromosome 2 which ha...

  10. An analysis of dynamic branch prediction schemes on system workloads

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nicolas Gloy; Cliff Young; J. Bradley Chen; Michael D. Smith

    1996-01-01

    Recent studies of dynamic branch prediction schemes rely almost exclusively on user-only simulations to evaluate performance. We find that an evaluation of these schemes with user and kernel references often leads to different conclusions. By analyzing our own Atom-generated system traces and the system traces from the Instruction Benchmark Suite, we quantify the effects of kernel and user interactions on

  11. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers (both permanent and postdoctoral) to push forward the frontiers of ocean of oceanic processes, construction and analysis of ocean models and forecast systems, and basic and applied

  12. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for Ph.D. researchers to advance capabilities in ocean data assimilation and probabilistic, representation of ocean processes affecting temperature, salinity, and mixed- layer depth, uncertainty analysis

  13. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers to push forward the frontiers of ocean forecasting. Problems that must circulation, estuarine and riverine modeling, Arctic ice modeling, internal waves and ocean

  14. The Predictive Validity of Dynamic Assessment: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caffrey, Erin; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors report on a mixed-methods review of 24 studies that explores the predictive validity of dynamic assessment (DA). For 15 of the studies, they conducted quantitative analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients. They descriptively examined the remaining studies to determine if their results were consistent with findings from the…

  15. Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor

    E-print Network

    Withers, Paul

    Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor Showers at Mars Paul intervals when there are many of these profiles and call them meteor showers We study cometary orbits to identify the parent bodies responsible for the meteor showers #12;Meteoric Layers (MEX) Profile with EUV

  16. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  17. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    E-print Network

    McDermid, Richard M

    2015-01-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the Atlas3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future w...

  18. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDermid, Richard M.

    2015-04-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the ATLAS3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future work.

  19. Populations dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Ritchie, Lawrence S.; Radke, Myron G.; Ferguson, Frederick F.

    1962-01-01

    This report on the population dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico is based on observations made over about two years at 50 collecting-sites in a representative range of snail habitats. In some places a marked predominance of Tropicorbis was noted. No continuous or seasonal propagation of Australorbis was apparent. Dense populations seldom prevailed for more than a few months, and in most places very low population levels occurred at irregular intervals, and colony decimations were fairly common. A variety of pressures is exerted on Australorbis in Puerto Rico by a multiplicity of natural factors; detailed knowledge of this snail's natural history in the field is necessary for effective bilharziasis control and for a full understanding of the regional epidemiology of this disease. PMID:14492504

  20. A new model with delay for mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Wan, Hui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we formulate a new model with maturation delay for mosquito population incorporating the impact of blood meal resource for mosquito reproduction. Our results suggest that except for the usual crowded effect for adult mosquitoes, the impact of blood meal resource in a given region determines the mosquito abundance, it is also important for the population dynamics of mosquito which may induce Hopf bifurcation. The existence of a stable periodic solution is proved both analytically and numerically. The new model for mosquito also suggests that the resources for mosquito reproduction should not be ignored or mixed with the impact of blood meal resources for mosquito survival and both impacts should be considered in the model of mosquito population. The impact of maturation delay is also analyzed. PMID:25365606

  1. Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics

    E-print Network

    Eric Forgoston; Leah B. Shaw; Ira B. Schwartz

    2014-10-30

    A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

  2. Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

  3. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages

    PubMed Central

    Bull, James J.; Gill, Jason J.

    2014-01-01

    The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i) compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii) assay dynamics in vivo, (iii) understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv) test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v) develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous environments. PMID:25477869

  4. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  5. Phase Space Formulation of Population Dynamics in Ecology

    E-print Network

    Jesus Martinez-Linares

    2013-04-08

    A phase space theory for population dynamics in Ecology is presented. This theory applies for a certain class of dynamical systems, that will be called M-systems, for which a conserved quantity, the M-function, can be defined in phase space. This M-function is the generator of time displacements and contains all the dynamical information of the system. In this sense the M-function plays the role of the hamiltonian function for mechanical systems. In analogy with Hamilton theory we derive equations of motion as derivatives over the resource function in phase space. A M-bracket is defined which allows one to perform a geometrical approach in analogy to Poisson bracket of hamiltonian systems. We show that the equations of motion can be derived from a variational principle over a functional J of the trajectories. This functional plays for M-systems the same role than the action S for hamiltonian systems. Finally, three important systems in population dynamics, namely, Lotka-Volterra, self-feeding and logistic evolution, are shown to be M-systems.

  6. AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  7. Mysid Population Responses to Resource Limitation Differ from those Predicted by Cohort Studies

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects of anthropogenic stressors on animal populations are often evaluated by assembling vital rate responses from isolated cohort studies into a single demographic model. However, models constructed from cohort studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions be...

  8. SIMULATION & GAMING, Vol 32, No 2, June 2001; 215-227. Population dynamics of Gambian sleeping sickness

    E-print Network

    Artzrouni, Marc

    . There is a long tradition in epidemiology of modeling the dynamics and predict the future course of communicable" in epidemiologic parlance): the infected fly and infected human populations. The "susceptible" (healthy (methods to decrease and stop the spread of sleeping sickness). There are traditionally two such methods

  9. Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfan, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar to those of the corresponding series of the actual data measured at the station. Beginning from the initial conditions and being forced by Monte-Carlo generated synthetic meteorological series, the model simulated diverging trajectories of soil moisture characteristics (water content of soil column, moisture of different soil layers, etc.). Limit of predictability of the specific characteristic was determined through time of stabilization of variance of the characteristic between the trajectories, as they move away from the initial state. Numerical experiments were carried out with the stochastic-dynamical model to analyze sensitivity of the soil moisture predictability assessments to uncertainty in the initial conditions, to determine effects of the soil hydraulic properties and processes of soil freezing on the predictability. It was found, particularly, that soil water content predictability is sensitive to errors in the initial conditions and strongly depends on the hydraulic properties of soil under both unfrozen and frozen conditions. Even if the initial conditions are "well-established", the assessed predictability of water content of unfrozen soil does not exceed 30-40 days, while for frozen conditions it may be as long as 3-4 months. The latter creates opportunity for utilizing the autumn water content of soil as the predictor for spring snowmelt runoff in the region under consideration.

  10. Combined analytical and experimental approaches to dynamic component stress prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chierichetti, Maria

    In modern times, the ability to investigate the aeroelastic behavior of dynamic components on rotorcraft has become essential for the prediction of their useful fatigue life. At the same time, the aeroelastic modeling of a rotorcraft is particularly complex and costly. Inaccuracies in numerical predictions are mostly due to imprecisions in the structural modeling, to the presence of structural degradation or to the limited information on aerodynamic loads. The integration of experimental measurements on dynamic components such as rotor blades has the potential to improve fatigue estimation, augment the knowledge of the dynamic behavior and inform numerical models. The objective of this research is the development of a combined numerical and experimental approach, named Confluence Algorithm, that accurately predicts the response of dynamic components with a limited set of experimental data. The integration of experimental measurements into a numerical algorithm enables the continuous and accurate tracking of the dynamic strain and stress fields. The Confluence Algorithm systematically updates the numerical model of the external loads, and mass and stiffness distributions to improve the representation and extrapolation of the experimental data, and to extract information on the response of the system at non-measured locations. The capabilities of this algorithm are first verified in a numerical framework and with well-controlled lab experiments. Numerical results from a comprehensive UH-60A multibody model are then compared with available experimental data. These analyses demonstrate that the integration of the Confluence Algorithm improves the accuracy of the numerical prediction of the dynamic response of systems characterized by a periodic behavior, even in presence of non-linearities. The algorithm enables the use of simplified models that are corrected through experimental data to achieve accurate tracking of the system.

  11. Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

  12. Dynamic modeling of vehicle populations: An engineering approach for emissions calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Zachariadis, T.; Samaras, Z. [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece)] [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece); Zierock, K.H. [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)] [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)

    1995-10-01

    A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estimates of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total traffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technology substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more refined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed information is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can implement it reasonably well. 17 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  13. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  14. Fish farms, parasites, and predators: implications for salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Connors, Brendan M; Ford, Helen; Peacock, Stephanie; Mages, Paul; Ford, Jennifer S; Morton, Alexandra; Volpe, John P; Hilborn, Ray; Dill, Lawrence M; Lewis, Mark A

    2011-04-01

    For some salmon populations, the individual and population effects of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) transmission from sea cage salmon farms is probably mediated by predation, which is a primary natural source of mortality of juvenile salmon. We examined how sea lice infestation affects predation risk and mortality of juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon, and developed a mathematical model to assess the implications for population dynamics and conservation. A risk-taking experiment indicated that infected juvenile pink salmon accept a higher predation risk in order to obtain foraging opportunities. In a schooling experiment with juvenile chum salmon, infected individuals had increased nearest-neighbor distances and occupied peripheral positions in the school. Prey selection experiments with cutthroat trout (O. clarkii) predators indicated that infection reduces the ability of juvenile pink salmon to evade a predatory strike. Group predation experiments with coho salmon (O. kisutch) feeding on juvenile pink or chum salmon indicated that predators selectively consume infected prey. The experimental results indicate that lice may increase the rate of prey capture but not the handling time of a predator. Based on this result, we developed a mathematical model of sea lice and salmon population dynamics in which parasitism affects the attack rate in a type II functional response. Analysis of the model indicates that: (1) the estimated mortality of wild juvenile salmon due to sea lice infestation is probably higher than previously thought; (2) predation can cause a simultaneous decline in sea louse abundance on wild fish and salmon productivity that could mislead managers and regulators; and (3) compensatory mortality occurs in the saturation region of the type II functional response where prey are abundant because predators increase mortality of parasites but not overall predation rates. These findings indicate that predation is an important component of salmon-louse dynamics and has implications for estimating mortality, reducing infection, and developing conservation policy. PMID:21639053

  15. Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima

    2012-01-01

    Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

  16. Effects of Supplemental Food on Population Dynamics of Cotton Rats, Sigmodon Hispidus

    E-print Network

    Doonan, Terry J.; Slade, Norman A.

    1995-04-01

    Variation in resource abundance affects population dynamics by altering demographic processes and interactions among individuals in the population. For small mammals, food is likely to be a critical resource. Population densities should vary...

  17. Herbivory and population dynamics of invasive and native Lespedeza.

    PubMed

    Schutzenhofer, Michele R; Valone, Thomas J; Knight, Tiffany M

    2009-08-01

    Some exotic plants are able to invade habitats and attain higher fitness than native species, even when the native species are closely related. One explanation for successful plant invasion is that exotic invasive plant species receive less herbivory or other enemy damage than native species, and this allows them to achieve rapid population growth. Despite many studies comparing herbivory and fitness of native and invasive congeners, none have quantified population growth rates. Here, we examined the contribution of herbivory to the population dynamics of the invasive species, Lespedeza cuneata, and its native congener, L. virginica, using an herbivory reduction experiment. We found that invasive L. cuneata experienced less herbivory than L. virginica. Further, in ambient conditions, the population growth rate of L. cuneata (lambda = 20.4) was dramatically larger than L. virginica (lambda = 1.7). Reducing herbivory significantly increased fitness of only the largest L. virginica plants, and this resulted in a small but significant increase in its population growth rate. Elasticity analysis showed that the growth rate of these species is most sensitive to changes in the seed production of small plants, a vital rate that is relatively unaffected by herbivory. In all, these species show dramatic differences in their population growth rates, and only 2% of that difference can be explained by their differences in herbivory incidence. Our results demonstrate that to understand the importance of consumers in explaining the relative success of invasive and native species, studies must determine how consumer effects on fitness components translate into population-level consequences. PMID:19444475

  18. Internal migration and regional population dynamics in China.

    PubMed

    Shen, J

    1996-06-01

    This monograph provides a systematic analysis of interprovincial migration in China and regional population dynamics since the 1950s. Data were obtained from the 1% sample survey of 1987. Chapters are devoted to an examination of the main features of population distribution and spatial differences of major demographic indicators, the causes and selectivity of migration, and the structure of migration. Explanatory models are used to estimate regional in- and out-migration rates and to identify factors that determine regional differences between those rates. The analysis of regional population trends since the 1950s is used to produce multiregional population projections at the provincial level for the period 1987-2087. The final chapter discusses the implications for socioeconomic development of regional population trends. Employment, marriage, and reunions with family are the three main causes of migration in China. City migrants tend to move between cities, while town and county migrants move to other towns in the same province or cities in other provinces. The eastern economic zones (Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangxi) had net in-migration during 1982-87. Other regions with net in-migration included the middle and western economic zones, with the exception of Hubei and Ningxi provinces, which had net out-migration. Most interprovincial migration flows were between neighboring provinces. The direction of flows was from less developed middle and western economic zones to more developed eastern economic zones. The migration pattern during 1982-87 reversed the pattern during 1949-78. The migration flows were sensitive to the shift in migration policy, to economic reforms, and to strategies of economic development that favored the east coast. The natural components of population change will have a vital impact on regional population changes, which are unevenly distributed across the nation. PMID:12321069

  19. Evidence of large-scale source-sink dynamics and long-distance dispersal among Wood Thrush populations.

    PubMed

    Tittler, Rebecca; Fahrig, Lenore; Villard, Marc-André

    2006-12-01

    Source-sink dynamics are commonly thought to occur among Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and other songbird populations, allowing for the persistence of populations with negative growth rates ("sinks") through immigration from populations with positive growth rates ("sources"). Knowledge of source-sink dynamics is important for management and conservation because the removal of source habitat should result in the extinction of dependent sinks. However, since research has focused on identifying individual sources/sink populations, not source-sink pairs, we cannot predict these effects or the scale over which they occur. We posit that, when dispersal occurs from a source to a sink year after year, there will be a one-year time-lagged correlation in abundance between the two populations. This should occur for populations separated by distances over which juveniles disperse. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey data, we tested for such time-lagged correlations between paired Wood Thrush populations from 10 to 200 km apart. Populations were linked with a one-year time lag over distances from 60 to 80 km, indicating that dispersal and source-sink dynamics may occur over these long distances. There was also a declining trend in forest cover from sources to sinks. Conservation and management strategies should therefore be designed at large scales, with consideration for source-sink dynamics and forest cover. PMID:17249228

  20. PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO PM: THE IMPORTANCE OF MICROENVIRONMENTAL CONCENTRATIONS AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) models being developed by the US EPA/NERL use a probabilistic approach to predict population exposures to pollutants. The SHEDS model for particulate matter (SHEDS-PM) estimates the population distribution of PM exposure...

  1. Modelling Heterogeneous Location Habits in Human Populations for Location Prediction Under Data Sparsity

    E-print Network

    Anderson, Jim

    Modelling Heterogeneous Location Habits in Human Populations for Location Prediction Under Data of population mobility (i.e., in groups without spa- tial or social overlap) has been limited in three impo. However, development of such approaches has been limited by the requirement of personal semantic labels

  2. Predicting the wetting dynamics of a two-liquid system.

    PubMed

    Seveno, D; Blake, T D; Goossens, S; De Coninck, J

    2011-12-20

    We propose a new theoretical model of dynamic wetting for systems comprising two immiscible liquids, in which one liquid displaces another from the surface of a solid. Such systems are important in many industrial processes and the natural world. The new model is an extension of the molecular-kinetic theory of wetting and offers a way to predict the dynamics of a two-liquid system from the individual wetting dynamics of its parent liquids. We also present the results of large-scale molecular dynamics simulations for one- and two-liquid systems and show them to be in good agreement with the new model. Finally, we show that the new model is consistent with the limited data currently available from experiment. PMID:22040276

  3. Nature versus nurture: predictability in low-temperature Ising dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ye, J; Machta, J; Newman, C M; Stein, D L

    2013-10-01

    Consider a dynamical many-body system with a random initial state subsequently evolving through stochastic dynamics. What is the relative importance of the initial state ("nature") versus the realization of the stochastic dynamics ("nurture") in predicting the final state? We examined this question for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet following an initial deep quench from T=? to T=0. We performed Monte Carlo studies on the overlap between "identical twins" raised in independent dynamical environments, up to size L=500. Our results suggest an overlap decaying with time as t(-?)(h) with ?(h)=0.22 ± 0.02; the same exponent holds for a quench to low but nonzero temperature. This "heritability exponent" may equal the persistence exponent for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet, but the two differ more generally. PMID:24229093

  4. Nature versus nurture: Predictability in low-temperature Ising dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, J.; Machta, J.; Newman, C. M.; Stein, D. L.

    2013-10-01

    Consider a dynamical many-body system with a random initial state subsequently evolving through stochastic dynamics. What is the relative importance of the initial state (“nature”) versus the realization of the stochastic dynamics (“nurture”) in predicting the final state? We examined this question for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet following an initial deep quench from T=? to T=0. We performed Monte Carlo studies on the overlap between “identical twins” raised in independent dynamical environments, up to size L=500. Our results suggest an overlap decaying with time as t-?h with ?h=0.22±0.02; the same exponent holds for a quench to low but nonzero temperature. This “heritability exponent” may equal the persistence exponent for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet, but the two differ more generally.

  5. Orbit determination and prediction study for Dynamic Explorer 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, R. L.; Nakai, Y.; Doll, C. E.

    1983-01-01

    Definitive orbit determination accuracy and orbit prediction accuracy for the Dynamic Explorer-2 (DE-2) are studied using the trajectory determination system for the period within six weeks of spacecraft reentry. Baseline accuracies using standard orbit determination models and methods are established. A promising general technique for improving the orbit determination accuracy of high drag orbits, estimation of random drag variations at perigee passages, is investigated. This technique improved the fit to the tracking data by a factor of five and improved the solution overlap consistency by a factor of two during a period in which the spacecraft perigee altitude was below 200 kilometers. The results of the DE-2 orbit predictions showed that improvement in short term prediction accuracy reduces to the problem of predicting future drag scale factors: the smoothness of the solar 10.7 centimeter flux density suggests that this may be feasible.

  6. Dynamic viscosity estimation of hydrogen sulfide using a predictive scheme based on molecular dynamics.

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Dynamic viscosity estimation of hydrogen sulfide using a predictive scheme based on molecular on molecular dynamics results on Lennard-Jones spheres is proposed to model the viscosity of hydrogen sulfide is that the adjustment does not involve any viscosity data because only density values have been used in order

  7. Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations

    PubMed Central

    Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D.

    2014-01-01

    Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities. PMID:25097751

  8. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-04-16

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10·5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. PMID:24738826

  9. Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

  10. Model complexity and population predictions. The alpine marmot as a case study

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Philip A. Stephens; Fredy Frey-roos; Walter Arnold; WILLIAM J. SUTHERLAND

    2002-01-01

    Summary 1. During the past 15 years, models have been used increasingly in predictive popula- tion ecology. Matrix models used for predicting the fates of populations are often extremely basic, ignoring density dependence, spatial scale and behaviour, and often based on one sex only. We tested the importance of some of these omissions for model realism, by comparing the performance

  11. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  12. Population dynamics in Digitalis purpurea: the interaction of disturbance and seed bank dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    NINA SLETVOLD; KNUT RYDGREN

    2007-01-01

    Summary 1. Plant ecologists have long since realized that the persistence of many facultative biennial plants depends upon disturbance. However, we still have a limited knowledge of the population-level effects of disturbance, and the connection between adult and seed bank dynamics. 2. Using data from a 3-year demographic study combined with experimental gap-opening in a large population of Digitalis purpurea

  13. Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass-shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995-2000.

    PubMed

    Calisher, Charles H; Mills, James N; Sweeney, William P; Root, J Jeffrey; Reeder, Serena A; Jentes, Emily S; Wagoner, Kent; Beaty, Barry J

    2005-01-01

    We followed seasonal and year-to-year population dynamics for a diverse rodent assemblage in a short-grass prairie ecosystem in southeastern Colorado (USA) for 6 yr. We captured 2,798 individual rodents (range, one to 812 individuals per species) belonging to 19 species. The two most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis), generally had population peaks in winter and nadirs in summer; several other murid species demonstrated autumn peaks and spring nadirs; heteromyids were infrequently captured in winter, and populations generally peaked in summer or autumn. Inter-annual trends indicated an interactive effect between temperature and precipitation. Conditions associated with low rodent populations or population declines were high precipitation during cold periods (autumn and winter) and low precipitation during warm periods (spring and summer). Severity of adverse effects varied by species. Heteromyids, for example, were apparently not negatively affected by the hot, dry spring and summer of 2000. Cross-correlations for the temporal series of relative population abundances between species pairs (which are affected by both seasonal and interannual population dynamics) revealed positive associations among most murids and among most heteromyids, but there were negative associations between murids and heteromyids. These results have important implications for those attempting to model population dynamics of rodent populations for purposes of predicting disease risk. PMID:15827207

  14. Predicted equations for ventilatory function among Kuching (Sarawak, Malaysia) population.

    PubMed

    Djojodibroto, R D; Pratibha, G; Kamaluddin, B; Manjit, S S; Sumitabha, G; Kumar, A Deva; Hashami, B

    2009-12-01

    Spirometry data of 869 individuals (males and females) between the ages of 10 to 60 years were analyzed. The analysis yielded the following conclusions: 1. The pattern of Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) and Forced Expiratory Volume in One Second (FEV1) for the selected subgroups seems to be gender dependant: in males, the highest values were seen in the Chinese, followed by the Malay, and then the Dayak; in females, the highest values were seen in the Chinese, followed by the Dayak, and then the Malay. 2. Smoking that did not produce respiratory symptom was not associated with a decline in lung function, in fact we noted higher values in smokers as compared to nonsmokers. 3. Prediction formulae (54 in total) are worked out for FVC & FEV1 for the respective gender and each of the selected subgroups. PMID:20954550

  15. From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing the Effects of Different Population

    E-print Network

    Bernard, Samuel

    From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing the Effects of Different Population Heterogeneity Sources for a Genetic Network with Positive Feedback, Texas ABSTRACT Phenotypic cell-to-cell variability or cell population heterogeneity originates from two

  16. Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2002-01-01

    A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

  17. Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine-Banded Armadillos

    PubMed Central

    Loughry, William J.; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M.; Oli, Madan K.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992–2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for ?, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for ??=?0.1, to 1.03 for ??=?1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when ? ?0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with ?, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of ?. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction. PMID:23844183

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Humplik, Jan; Hill, Alison L; Nowak, Martin A

    2014-11-01

    In infectious disease epidemiology the basic reproductive ratio, R0, is defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual in a fully susceptible population. Many models describing competition for hosts between non-interacting pathogen strains in an infinite population lead to the conclusion that selection favors invasion of new strains if and only if they have higher R0 values than the resident. Here we demonstrate that this picture fails in finite populations. Using a simple stochastic SIS model, we show that in general there is no analogous optimization principle. We find that successive invasions may in some cases lead to strains that infect a smaller fraction of the host population, and that mutually invasible pathogen strains exist. In the limit of weak selection we demonstrate that an optimization principle does exist, although it differs from R0 maximization. For strains with very large R0, we derive an expression for this local fitness function and use it to establish a lower bound for the error caused by neglecting stochastic effects. Furthermore, we apply this weak selection limit to investigate the selection dynamics in the presence of a trade-off between the virulence and the transmission rate of a pathogen. PMID:25016046

  19. Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

    2015-05-01

    We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

  20. Measuring Predictability of Autonomous Network Transitions into Bursting Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Mofakham, Sima; Zochowski, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Understanding spontaneous transitions between dynamical modes in a network is of significant importance. These transitions may separate pathological and normal functions of the brain. In this paper, we develop a set of measures that, based on spatio-temporal features of network activity, predict autonomous network transitions from asynchronous to synchronous dynamics under various conditions. These metrics quantify spike-timing distributions within a narrow time window as a function of the relative location of the active neurons. We applied these metrics to investigate the properties of these transitions in excitatory-only and excitatory-and-inhibitory networks and elucidate how network topology, noise level, and cellular heterogeneity affect both the reliability and the timeliness of the predictions. The developed measures can be calculated in real time and therefore potentially applied in clinical situations. PMID:25855975

  1. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  2. A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Elena Rivas; Sean R. Eddy

    1998-01-01

    We describe a dynamic programming algorithm for predicting optimal RNA secondary structure, including pseudoknots. The algorithm has a worst case complexity of ${\\\\cal O}(N^6)$ in time and ${\\\\cal O}(N^4)$ in storage. The description of the algorithm is complex, which led us to adopt a useful graphical representation (Feynman diagrams) borrowed from quantum field theory. We present an implementation of the

  3. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics. PMID:17148385

  4. An approach to predict risks to wildlife populations from mercury and other stressors.

    PubMed

    Nacci, Diane; Pelletier, Marguerite; Lake, Jim; Bennett, Rick; Nichols, John; Haebler, Romona; Grear, Jason; Kuhn, Anne; Copeland, Jane; Nicholson, Matthew; Walters, Steven; Munns, Wayne R

    2005-03-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (U.S. EPA NHEERL) is working cooperatively with environmental and conservation organizations to develop models to predict CH3Hg effects on populations of the common loon, Gavia immer. Specifically, a biologically-based toxicokinetic model is being used to extrapolate CH3Hg effects on the reproduction of a tested bird species, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), to the loon. Population models are being used to incorporate stressor effects on survival and reproduction into projections of loon population effects. Finally, habitat and spatially-explicit population models are being used to project results spatially, assess the relative importance of CH3Hg and non-chemical stressors, and produce testable predictions of the effects of biologically-available Hg on loon populations. This stepwise process provides an integrated approach to estimate the impact on wildlife populations of regulations that limit atmospherically-distributed Hg, and to develop risk-based population-level regulatory criteria. PMID:15931973

  5. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  6. Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

    2013-01-01

    The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

  7. Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

    2014-01-01

    Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

  8. A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Boggs, Carol L; Inouye, David W

    2012-05-01

    Weather drives population dynamics directly, through effects on vital rates, or indirectly, through effects on the population's competitors, predators or prey and thence on vital rates. Indirect effects may include non-additive interactions with density dependence. Detection of climate drivers is critical to predicting climate change effects, but identification of potential drivers may depend on knowing the underlying mechanisms. For the butterfly Speyeria mormonia, one climate driver, snow melt date, has multiple effects on population growth. Snow melt date in year t has density-dependent indirect effects. Through frost effects, early snow melt decreases floral resources, thence per-capita nectar availability, which determines fecundity in the lab. Snow melt date in year t?+?1 has density-independent direct effects. These effects explain 84% of the variation in population growth rate. One climate parameter thus has multiple effects on the dynamics of a species with non-overlapping generations, with one effect not detectable without understanding the underlying mechanism. PMID:22414183

  9. Two-Speed Gearbox Dynamic Simulation Predictions and Test Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewicki, David G.; DeSmidt, Hans; Smith, Edward C.; Bauman, Steven W.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic simulations and experimental validation tests were performed on a two-stage, two-speed gearbox as part of the drive system research activities of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Subsonics Rotary Wing Project. The gearbox was driven by two electromagnetic motors and had two electromagnetic, multi-disk clutches to control output speed. A dynamic model of the system was created which included a direct current electric motor with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) speed control, a two-speed gearbox with dual electromagnetically actuated clutches, and an eddy current dynamometer. A six degree-of-freedom model of the gearbox accounted for the system torsional dynamics and included gear, clutch, shaft, and load inertias as well as shaft flexibilities and a dry clutch stick-slip friction model. Experimental validation tests were performed on the gearbox in the NASA Glenn gear noise test facility. Gearbox output speed and torque as well as drive motor speed and current were compared to those from the analytical predictions. The experiments correlate very well with the predictions, thus validating the dynamic simulation methodologies.

  10. Uncertainty estimation and prediction for interdisciplinary ocean dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Lermusiaux, Pierre F.J. [Harvard University, Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Pierce Hall G2A, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02318 (United States)]. E-mail: pierrel@pacific.harvard.edu

    2006-09-01

    Scientific computations for the quantification, estimation and prediction of uncertainties for ocean dynamics are developed and exemplified. Primary characteristics of ocean data, models and uncertainties are reviewed and quantitative data assimilation concepts defined. Challenges involved in realistic data-driven simulations of uncertainties for four-dimensional interdisciplinary ocean processes are emphasized. Equations governing uncertainties in the Bayesian probabilistic sense are summarized. Stochastic forcing formulations are introduced and a new stochastic-deterministic ocean model is presented. The computational methodology and numerical system, Error Subspace Statistical Estimation, that is used for the efficient estimation and prediction of oceanic uncertainties based on these equations is then outlined. Capabilities of the ESSE system are illustrated in three data-assimilative applications: estimation of uncertainties for physical-biogeochemical fields, transfers of ocean physics uncertainties to acoustics, and real-time stochastic ensemble predictions with assimilation of a wide range of data types. Relationships with other modern uncertainty quantification schemes and promising research directions are discussed.

  11. Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations

    PubMed Central

    Norris, D. Ryan; Taylor, Caz M

    2005-01-01

    Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success. PMID:17148350

  12. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  13. Artificial neural network models for prediction of cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in general Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P?prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963

  14. Predicting and understanding forest dynamics using a simple tractable model

    PubMed Central

    Purves, Drew W.; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Strigul, Nikolay; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2008-01-01

    The perfect-plasticity approximation (PPA) is an analytically tractable model of forest dynamics, defined in terms of parameters for individual trees, including allometry, growth, and mortality. We estimated these parameters for the eight most common species on each of four soil types in the US Lake states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) by using short-term (?15-year) inventory data from individual trees. We implemented 100-year PPA simulations given these parameters and compared these predictions to chronosequences of stand development. Predictions for the timing and magnitude of basal area dynamics and ecological succession on each soil were accurate, and predictions for the diameter distribution of 100-year-old stands were correct in form and slope. For a given species, the PPA provides analytical metrics for early-successional performance (H20, height of a 20-year-old open-grown tree) and late-successional performance (?*, equilibrium canopy height in monoculture). These metrics predicted which species were early or late successional on each soil type. Decomposing ?* showed that (i) succession is driven both by superior understory performance and superior canopy performance of late-successional species, and (ii) performance differences primarily reflect differences in mortality rather than growth. The predicted late-successional dominants matched chronosequences on xeromesic (Quercus rubra) and mesic (codominance by Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum) soil. On hydromesic and hydric soils, the literature reports that the current dominant species in old stands (Thuja occidentalis) is now failing to regenerate. Consistent with this, the PPA predicted that, on these soils, stands are now succeeding to dominance by other late-successional species (e.g., Fraxinus nigra, A. rubrum). PMID:18971335

  15. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  16. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  17. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations.

    PubMed

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  18. Using GRASS and Spatial Explicit Population dynamics Modelling as a conservation tool to manage grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in northern Italy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Clara Tattoni; Damiano G. Preatoni; Peter W. W. Lurz; Steven P. Rushton; Guido Tosi; Sandro Bertolino; Lucas A. Wauters

    2004-01-01

    A recently discovered population of the North American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinen- sis), introduced to Ticino Park, Lombardy (N Italy), is likely to spread into continuous prealpine broadleaf forests of Lombardy and the south of Switzerland. We used GRASS GIS and Spatially Explicit Population Dynamics Models as a conservation tool to predict the spread of grey squirrels and to test

  19. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

    PubMed

    Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-04-01

    Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. PMID:24115317

  20. Population dynamics and potential of fisheries stock enhancement: practical theory for assessment and policy analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lorenzen, Kai

    2005-01-01

    The population dynamics of fisheries stock enhancement, and its potential for generating benefits over and above those obtainable from optimal exploitation of wild stocks alone are poorly understood and highly controversial. I review pertinent knowledge of fish population biology, and extend the dynamic pool theory of fishing to stock enhancement by unpacking recruitment, incorporating regulation in the recruited stock, and accounting for biological differences between wild and hatchery fish. I then analyse the dynamics of stock enhancement and its potential role in fisheries management, using the candidate stock of North Sea sole as an example and considering economic as well as biological criteria. Enhancement through release of recruits or advanced juveniles is predicted to increase total yield and stock abundance, but reduce abundance of the naturally recruited stock component through compensatory responses or overfishing. Economic feasibility of enhancement is subject to strong constraints, including trade-offs between the costs of fishing and hatchery releases. Costs of hatchery fish strongly influence optimal policy, which may range from no enhancement at high cost to high levels of stocking and fishing effort at low cost. Release of genetically maladapted fish reduces the effectiveness of enhancement, and is most detrimental overall if fitness of hatchery fish is only moderately compromised. As a temporary measure for the rebuilding of depleted stocks, enhancement cannot substitute for effort limitation, and is advantageous as an auxiliary measure only if the population has been reduced to a very low proportion of its unexploited biomass. Quantitative analysis of population dynamics is central to the responsible use of stock enhancement in fisheries management, and the necessary tools are available. PMID:15713596

  1. Dynamic Connectivity at Rest Predicts Attention Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    Askren, Mary K.; Boord, Peter; Grabowski, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Consistent spatial patterns of coherent activity, representing large-scale networks, have been reliably identified in multiple populations. Most often, these studies have examined “stationary” connectivity. However, there is a growing recognition that there is a wealth of information in the time-varying dynamics of networks which has neural underpinnings, which changes with age and disease and that supports behavior. Using factor analysis of overlapping sliding windows across 25 participants with Parkinson disease (PD) and 21 controls (ages 41–86), we identify factors describing the covarying correlations of regions (dynamic connectivity) within attention networks and the default mode network, during two baseline resting-state and task runs. Cortical regions that support attention networks are affected early in PD, motivating the potential utility of dynamic connectivity as a sensitive way to characterize physiological disruption to these networks. We show that measures of dynamic connectivity are more reliable than comparable measures of stationary connectivity. Factors in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal task control network, obtained at rest, are consistently related to the alerting and orienting reaction time effects in the subsequent Attention Network Task. In addition, the same relationship between the same DAN factor and the alerting effect was present during tasks. Although reliable, dynamic connectivity was not invariant, and changes between factor scores across sessions were related to changes in accuracy. In summary, patterns of time-varying correlations among nodes in an intrinsic network have a stability that has functional relevance. PMID:25014419

  2. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2011-07-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  3. Representation of Dynamical Stimuli in Populations of Threshold Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Tchumatchenko, Tatjana; Wolf, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework. PMID:22028642

  4. Rhythmic Manipulation of Objects with Complex Dynamics: Predictability over Chaos

    PubMed Central

    Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J.; Sternad, Dagmar

    2014-01-01

    The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

  5. Rhythmic manipulation of objects with complex dynamics: predictability over chaos.

    PubMed

    Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J; Sternad, Dagmar

    2014-10-01

    The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

  6. Labour-efficient in vitro lymphocyte population tracking and fate prediction using automation and manual review.

    PubMed

    Chakravorty, Rajib; Rawlinson, David; Zhang, Alan; Markham, John; Dowling, Mark R; Wellard, Cameron; Zhou, Jie H S; Hodgkin, Philip D

    2014-01-01

    Interest in cell heterogeneity and differentiation has recently led to increased use of time-lapse microscopy. Previous studies have shown that cell fate may be determined well in advance of the event. We used a mixture of automation and manual review of time-lapse live cell imaging to track the positions, contours, divisions, deaths and lineage of 44 B-lymphocyte founders and their 631 progeny in vitro over a period of 108 hours. Using this data to train a Support Vector Machine classifier, we were retrospectively able to predict the fates of individual lymphocytes with more than 90% accuracy, using only time-lapse imaging captured prior to mitosis or death of 90% of all cells. The motivation for this paper is to explore the impact of labour-efficient assistive software tools that allow larger and more ambitious live-cell time-lapse microscopy studies. After training on this data, we show that machine learning methods can be used for realtime prediction of individual cell fates. These techniques could lead to realtime cell culture segregation for purposes such as phenotype screening. We were able to produce a large volume of data with less effort than previously reported, due to the image processing, computer vision, tracking and human-computer interaction tools used. We describe the workflow of the software-assisted experiments and the graphical interfaces that were needed. To validate our results we used our methods to reproduce a variety of published data about lymphocyte populations and behaviour. We also make all our data publicly available, including a large quantity of lymphocyte spatio-temporal dynamics and related lineage information. PMID:24404133

  7. Labour-Efficient In Vitro Lymphocyte Population Tracking and Fate Prediction Using Automation and Manual Review

    PubMed Central

    Chakravorty, Rajib; Rawlinson, David; Zhang, Alan; Markham, John; Dowling, Mark R.; Wellard, Cameron; Zhou, Jie H. S.; Hodgkin, Philip D.

    2014-01-01

    Interest in cell heterogeneity and differentiation has recently led to increased use of time-lapse microscopy. Previous studies have shown that cell fate may be determined well in advance of the event. We used a mixture of automation and manual review of time-lapse live cell imaging to track the positions, contours, divisions, deaths and lineage of 44 B-lymphocyte founders and their 631 progeny in vitro over a period of 108 hours. Using this data to train a Support Vector Machine classifier, we were retrospectively able to predict the fates of individual lymphocytes with more than 90% accuracy, using only time-lapse imaging captured prior to mitosis or death of 90% of all cells. The motivation for this paper is to explore the impact of labour-efficient assistive software tools that allow larger and more ambitious live-cell time-lapse microscopy studies. After training on this data, we show that machine learning methods can be used for realtime prediction of individual cell fates. These techniques could lead to realtime cell culture segregation for purposes such as phenotype screening. We were able to produce a large volume of data with less effort than previously reported, due to the image processing, computer vision, tracking and human-computer interaction tools used. We describe the workflow of the software-assisted experiments and the graphical interfaces that were needed. To validate our results we used our methods to reproduce a variety of published data about lymphocyte populations and behaviour. We also make all our data publicly available, including a large quantity of lymphocyte spatio-temporal dynamics and related lineage information. PMID:24404133

  8. Adaptive Sex Determination and Population Dynamics in a Brackish-water Amphipod

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watt, Penelope J.; Adams, Jonathan

    1993-09-01

    Gammarus duebeni is a sexually dimorphic amphipod with an unusual and environmentally mediated sex determining system. In seasonal populations, environmental sex determination (ESD) is selectively advantageous and males and females are produced at different times of the year, but it has been predicted that where generations overlap or the breeding season is long, ESD should no longer have a selective advantage over genetic mechanisms of sex determination and males and females should be produced simultaneously. The dynamics of a supposedly bivoltine population at Totton Marsh on the south coast of England were investigated. The field study showed that the breeding season at Totton was not in fact bivoltine but long, extending through most of the year with a short break in early summer. Population sex ratio fluctuated seasonally: this pattern appears to be the product of differences in production of males and females rather than growth or mortality. Thus, contrary to expectations, ESD does occur in this population. Photoperiod is the cue for sex determination in the laboratory, but in the field this alone could not account for the observed pattern of male and female production at Totton Marsh. Another major variable must be involved and it is proposed that it also has an influence on other G. duebeni populations.

  9. Population Dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a Decision Model for Sugar Beet Planting

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jiue-in; Benecke, Scott; Jeske, Daniel R.; Rocha, Fernando S.; Smith Becker, Jennifer; Timper, Patricia; Ole Becker, J.

    2012-01-01

    A series of experiments were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initial infestation densities of both D. oviparasitica and H. schachtii. In general, higher initial population densities of D. oviparasitica were associated with lower final population densities of H. schachtii. Regression models showed that the initial densities of D. oviparasitica were only significant when predicting the final densities of H. schachtii J2 and eggs as well as fungal egg parasitism, while the initial densities of J2 were significant for all final H. schachtii population density measurements. We also showed that the densities of H. schachtii-associated D. oviparasitica fluctuate greatly, with rRNA gene numbers going from zero in most field-soil-collected cysts to an average of 4.24 x 108 in mature females isolated directly from root surfaces. Finally, phylogenetic analysis of rRNA genes suggested that D. oviparasitica belongs to a clade of nematophagous fungi that includes Arkansas Fungus strain L (ARF-L) and that these fungi are widely distributed. We anticipate that these findings will provide foundational data facilitating the development of more effective decision models for sugar beet planting. PMID:23481664

  10. Population dynamics of islet-infiltrating cells in autoimmune diabetes.

    PubMed

    Magnuson, Angela M; Thurber, Greg M; Kohler, Rainer H; Weissleder, Ralph; Mathis, Diane; Benoist, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    Type-1 diabetes in the nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse starts with an insulitis stage, wherein a mixed population of leukocytes invades the pancreas, followed by overt diabetes once enough insulin-producing ?-cells are destroyed by invading immunocytes. Little is known of the dynamics of lymphocyte movement into the pancreas during disease progression. We used the Kaede transgenic mouse, whose photoconvertible fluorescent reporter permits noninvasive labeling and subsequent tracking of immunocytes, to investigate pancreatic infiltrate dynamics and the requirement for antigen specificity during progression of autoimmune diabetes in the unmanipulated NOD mouse. Our results indicate that the insulitic lesion is very open with constant cell influx and active turnover, predominantly of B and T lymphocytes, but also CD11b(+)c(+) myeloid cells. Both naïve- and memory-phenotype lymphocytes trafficked to the insulitis, but Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells circulated less than their conventional CD4(+) counterparts. Receptor specificity for pancreatic antigens seemed irrelevant for this homing, because similar kinetics were observed in polyclonal and antigen-specific transgenic contexts. This "open" configuration was also observed after reversal of overt diabetes by anti-CD3 treatment. These results portray insulitis as a dynamic lesion at all stages of disease, continuously fed by a mixed influx of immunocytes, and thus susceptible to evolve over time in response to immunologic or environmental influences. PMID:25605891

  11. Reversed optimality and predictive ecology: burrowing depth forecasts population change in a bivalve

    PubMed Central

    van Gils, Jan A.; Kraan, Casper; Dekinga, Anne; Koolhaas, Anita; Drent, Jan; de Goeij, Petra; Piersma, Theunis

    2008-01-01

    Optimality reasoning from behavioural ecology can be used as a tool to infer how animals perceive their environment. Using optimality principles in a ‘reversed manner’ may enable ecologists to predict changes in population size before such changes actually happen. Here we show that a behavioural anti-predation trait (burrowing depth) of the marine bivalve Macoma balthica can be used as an indicator of the change in population size over the year to come. The per capita population growth rate between years t and t+1 correlated strongly with the proportion of individuals living in the dangerous top 4?cm layer of the sediment in year t: the more individuals in the top layer, the steeper the population decline. This is consistent with the prediction based on optimal foraging theory that animals with poor prospects should accept greater risks of predation. This study is among the first to document fitness forecasting in animals. PMID:18940769

  12. BIO 320 Project on Population Dynamics 1. Due Monday, 9 December 2013, the last class meeting.

    E-print Network

    Caraco, Thomas

    BIO 320 Project on Population Dynamics 1. Due Monday, 9 December 2013, the last class meeting. 2 of single populations, and interacting species. Project will report behavior of model(s), and interpret of population dynamics, by writing a coherent interpretation of a mathematical/computational study

  13. Expression deconvolution: A reinterpretation of DNA microarray data reveals dynamic changes in cell populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peng Lu; Aleksey Nakorchevskiy; Edward M. Marcotte

    2003-01-01

    Cells grow in dynamically evolving populations, yet this aspect of experiments often goes unmeasured. A method is proposed for measuring the population dynamics of cells on the basis of their mRNA expression patterns. The population's expression pattern is modeled as the linear combination of mRNA expression from pure samples of cells, allowing reconstruction of the relative proportions of pure cell

  14. Accepted Manuscript Woody plant population dynamics in response to climate changes from 1984 to

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Accepted Manuscript Woody plant population dynamics in response to climate changes from 1984, E., Soumaguel, N., Baup, F., Woody plant population dynamics in response to climate changes from the resilience Sahel vegetation.14 Keywords: Sahel, Mali, climate change, drought, woody plant population,

  15. Do resting brain dynamics predict oddball evoked-potential?

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The oddball paradigm is widely applied to the investigation of cognitive function in neuroscience and in neuropsychiatry. Whether cortical oscillation in the resting state can predict the elicited oddball event-related potential (ERP) is still not clear. This study explored the relationship between resting electroencephalography (EEG) and oddball ERPs. The regional powers of 18 electrodes across delta, theta, alpha and beta frequencies were correlated with the amplitude and latency of N1, P2, N2 and P3 components of oddball ERPs. A multivariate analysis based on partial least squares (PLS) was applied to further examine the spatial pattern revealed by multiple correlations. Results Higher synchronization in the resting state, especially at the alpha spectrum, is associated with higher neural responsiveness and faster neural propagation, as indicated by the higher amplitude change of N1/N2 and shorter latency of P2. None of the resting quantitative EEG indices predict P3 latency and amplitude. The PLS analysis confirms that the resting cortical dynamics which explains N1/N2 amplitude and P2 latency does not show regional specificity, indicating a global property of the brain. Conclusions This study differs from previous approaches by relating dynamics in the resting state to neural responsiveness in the activation state. Our analyses suggest that the neural characteristics carried by resting brain dynamics modulate the earlier/automatic stage of target detection. PMID:22114868

  16. Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

  17. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  18. Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value. PMID:23437313

  19. Deciphering and prediction of transcriptome dynamics under fluctuating field conditions.

    PubMed

    Nagano, Atsushi J; Sato, Yutaka; Mihara, Motohiro; Antonio, Baltazar A; Motoyama, Ritsuko; Itoh, Hironori; Nagamura, Yoshiaki; Izawa, Takeshi

    2012-12-01

    Determining the drivers of gene expression patterns is more straightforward in laboratory conditions than in the complex fluctuating environments where organisms typically live. We gathered transcriptome data from the leaves of rice plants in a paddy field along with the corresponding meteorological data and used them to develop statistical models for the endogenous and external influences on gene expression. Our results indicate that the transcriptome dynamics are predominantly governed by endogenous diurnal rhythms, ambient temperature, plant age, and solar radiation. The data revealed diurnal gates for environmental stimuli to influence transcription and pointed to relative influences exerted by circadian and environmental factors on different metabolic genes. The model also generated predictions for the influence of changing temperatures on transcriptome dynamics. We anticipate that our models will help translate the knowledge amassed in laboratories to problems in agriculture and that our approach to deciphering the transcriptome fluctuations in complex environments will be applicable to other organisms. PMID:23217716

  20. Cooperative Bacterial Growth Dynamics Predict the Evolution of Antibiotic Resistance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artemova, Tatiana; Gerardin, Ylaine; Hsin-Jung Li, Sophia; Gore, Jeff

    2011-03-01

    Since the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have been our primary weapon against bacterial infections. Unfortunately, bacteria can gain resistance to penicillin by acquiring the gene that encodes beta-lactamase, which inactivates the antibiotic. However, mutations in this gene are necessary to degrade the modern antibiotic cefotaxime. Understanding the conditions that favor the spread of these mutations is a challenge. Here we show that bacterial growth in beta-lactam antibiotics is cooperative and that the nature of this growth determines the conditions in which resistance evolves. Quantitative analysis of the growth dynamics predicts a peak in selection at very low antibiotic concentrations; competition between strains confirms this prediction. We also find significant selection at higher antibiotic concentrations, close to the minimum inhibitory concentrations of the strains. Our results argue that an understanding of the evolutionary forces that lead to antibiotic resistance requires a quantitative understanding of the evolution of cooperation in bacteria.

  1. Modified Newtonian dynamics as a prediction of general relativity

    E-print Network

    Rahman, S

    2006-01-01

    We treat the physical vacuum as a featureless relativistic continuum in motion, and explore its consequences. Proceeding in a step-by-step manner, we are able to show that the equations of classical electrodynamics follow from the motion of a space-filling fluid of neutral spinors which we identify with neutrinos. The model predicts that antimatter has negative mass, and that neutrinos are matter-antimatter dipoles. Together these suffice to explain the presence of modified Newtonian dynamics as a gravitational polarisation effect. The existence of antigravity could resolve other major outstanding issues in cosmology, including the rate of expansion of the universe and its flatness, the origin of gamma ray bursts, and the smallness of the cosmological constant. If our model is correct then all of these observations are non-trivial predictions of Einstein's general theory of relativity.

  2. Population dynamics of a meiotic/mitotic expansion model for the fragile X syndrome

    SciTech Connect

    Ashley, A.E.; Sherman, S.L. [Emory Univ. School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    1995-12-01

    A model to explain the mutational process and population dynamics of the fragile X syndrome is presented. The mutational mechanism was assumed to be a multi-pathway, multistep process. Expansion of CGG repeats was based on an underlying biological process and was assumed to occur at two time points: meiosis and early embryonic development (mitosis). Meiotic expansion was assumed to occur equally in oogenesis and spermatogenesis, while mitotic expansion was restricted to somatic, or constitutional, alleles of maternal origin. Testable hypotheses were predicted by this meiotic/mitotic model. First, parental origin of mutation is predicted to be associated with the risk of a woman to have a full-mutation child. Second, {open_quotes}contractions{close_quotes} seen in premutation male transmissions are predicted not to be true contractions in repeat size, but a consequence of the lack of mitotic expansion in paternally derived alleles. Third, a portion of full-mutation males should have full-mutation alleles in their sperm, due to the lack of complete selection against the full-mutation female. Fourth, a specific premutation-allele frequency distribution is predicted and differs from that based on models assuming only meiotic expansion. Last, it is predicted that {approximately}65 generations are required to achieve equilibrium, but this depends greatly on the expansion probabilities. 42 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

  4. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  5. Linking operation parameters and environmental variables to population dynamics of Mycolata in a membrane bioreactor.

    PubMed

    Maza-Márquez, P; Gómez-Silván, C; Gómez, M A; González-López, J; Martínez-Toledo, M V; Rodelas, B

    2015-03-01

    The community structure and population dynamics of Mycolata were monitored in a full-scale membrane bioreactor during four experimental phases under changing operating and environmental conditions, by means of temperature-gradient gel electrophoresis of partial 16S-rRNA genes amplified from community DNA and RNA templates (total and active populations). Non-metric multidimensional scaling and BIO-ENV analyses demonstrated that population dynamics were mostly explained (30-32%) by changes in the input of nutrients in the influent water and the accumulation of biomass in the bioreactors, while the influence of hydraulic and solid retention times, temperature and F/M ratio was minor. Significant correlations were observed between particular Mycolata phylotypes and one or more variables, contributing information for the prediction of their abundance and activity under changing conditions. Fingerprinting and multivariate analyses demonstrated that two foaming episodes, recorded at temperatures <20°C, were connected to the increase of the relative abundance of Mycolata unrelated to Gordonia amarae. PMID:25621724

  6. A Biologically Informed, Mechanistic Model of Desert Shrub Population Dynamics Bearing on Arid Landscape Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worman, Stacey; Furbish, David; Fathel, Siobhan

    2014-05-01

    In arid landscapes, desert shrubs individually and collectively modify how sediment is transported (e.g by wind, overland-flow, and rain-splash). Addressing how desert shrubs modify landscapes on geomorphic timescales therefore necessitates spanning multiple shrub lifetimes and accounting for how processes affecting shrub dynamics on these longer timescales (e.g. fire, grazing, drought, and climate change) may in turn impact sediment transport. To fulfill this need, we present a mechanistic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of a desert-shrub population that uses a simple accounting framework and tracks individual shrubs as they enter, age, and exit the population (via recruitment, growth, and mortality). Our model is novel insomuch as it (1) features a strong biophysical foundation, (2) mimics well-documented aspects of how shrub populations respond to changes in precipitation, and (3) possesses the process granularity appropriate for use in geomorphic simulations. In a complimentary abstract (Fathel et al. 2014), we demonstrate the potential of this biological model by coupling it to a physical model of rain-splash sediment transport: We mechanistically reproduce the empirical observation that the erosion rate of a hillslope decreases as its vegetation coverage increases and we predict erosion rates under different climate-change scenarios.

  7. On mathematical theory of selection: continuous time population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Karev, Georgiy P

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical theory of selection is developed within the frameworks of general models of inhomogeneous populations with continuous time. Methods that allow us to study the distribution dynamics under natural selection and to construct explicit solutions of the models are developed. All statistical characteristics of interest, such as the mean values of the fitness or any trait can be computed effectively, and the results depend in a crucial way on the initial distribution. The developed theory provides an effective method for solving selection systems; it reduces the initial complex model to a special system of ordinary differential equations (the escort system). Applications of the method to the Price equations are given; the solutions of some particular inhomogeneous Malthusian, Ricker and logistic-like models used but not solved in the literature are derived in explicit form. PMID:19283384

  8. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M

    2014-06-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  9. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  10. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  11. Predicting local adaptation in fragmented plant populations: implications for restoration genetics

    PubMed Central

    Pickup, Melinda; Field, David L; Rowell, David M; Young, Andrew G

    2012-01-01

    Understanding patterns and correlates of local adaptation in heterogeneous landscapes can provide important information in the selection of appropriate seed sources for restoration. We assessed the extent of local adaptation of fitness components in 12 population pairs of the perennial herb Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) and examined whether spatial scale (0.7–600 km), environmental distance, quantitative (QST) and neutral (FST) genetic differentiation, and size of the local and foreign populations could predict patterns of adaptive differentiation. Local adaptation varied among populations and fitness components. Including all population pairs, local adaptation was observed for seedling survival, but not for biomass, while foreign genotype advantage was observed for reproduction (number of inflorescences). Among population pairs, local adaptation increased with QST and local population size for biomass. QST was associated with environmental distance, suggesting ecological selection for phenotypic divergence. However, low FST and variation in population structure in small populations demonstrates the interaction of gene flow and drift in constraining local adaptation in R. leptorrhynchoides. Our study indicates that for species in heterogeneous landscapes, collecting seed from large populations from similar environments to candidate sites is likely to provide the most appropriate seed sources for restoration. PMID:23346235

  12. Utility of Microcosm Studies for Predicting Phylloplane Bacterium Population Sizes in the Field

    PubMed Central

    Kinkel, L. L.; Wilson, M.; Lindow, S. E.

    1996-01-01

    Population sizes of two ice nucleation-active strains of Pseudomonas syringae were compared on leaves in controlled environments and in the field to determine the ability of microcosm studies to predict plant habitat preferences in the field. The P. syringae strains investigated were the parental strains of recombinant deletion mutant strains deficient in ice nucleation activity that had been field tested for their ability to control plant frost injury. The population size of the P. syringae strains was measured after inoculation at three field locations on up to 40 of the same plant species that were studied in the growth chamber. There was seldom a significant relationship between the mean population size of a given P. syringae strain incubated under either wet or dry conditions in microcosms and the mean population size which could be recovered from the same species when inoculated in the field. Specifically, on some plant species, the population size recovered from leaves in the field was substantially greater than from that species in a controlled environment, while for other plant species field populations were significantly smaller than those observed under controlled conditions. Population sizes of inoculated P. syringae strains, however, were frequently highly positively correlated with the indigenous bacterial population size on the same plant species in the field, suggesting that the ability of a particular plant species to support introduced bacterial strains is correlated with its ability to support large bacterial populations or that indigenous bacteria enhance the survival of introduced strains. Microcosm studies therefore seem most effective at assessing possible differences between parental and recombinant strains under a given environmental regime but are limited in their ability to predict the specific population sizes or plant habitat preferences of bacteria on leaves under field conditions. PMID:16535405

  13. Population dynamics and interactions between endemic entomopathogenic nematodes and annual bluegrass weevil populations in golf course turfgrass

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Benjamin A. McGraw; Albrecht M. Koppenhöfer

    2009-01-01

    Entomopathogenic nematodes (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae and Heterorhabditidae) (EPNs) are generalist obligate pathogens present in the soil of most ecosystems. They have the potential to infect a broad host range, yet the potential for endemic EPNs to regulate soil-dwelling insect populations has received limited attention. We investigated the population dynamics of endemic EPNs to determine their ability to regulate annual bluegrass weevil

  14. THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF VARROA MITES IN HONEY BEE COLONIES: PART 1 - THE VARROA POP PROGRAM

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A mathematical model of population interactions between Varroa destructor and a honey bee colony is described. The program bases colony population growth on weather conditions, time of year, initial colony population size, queen fecundity, and worker longevity. Varroa population growth is predicte...

  15. Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

    PubMed Central

    Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

  16. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  17. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population JOAQUI diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental

  18. [Seed population dynamics and germination characteristics of Eupatorium adenophorum].

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenqi; Wang, Jinjun; Zhao, Zhimo

    2006-06-01

    With bare land, farmland, and masson pine forestland in the Eupatorium adenophorum- invaded area of Dechang County, Sichuan Province as test habitats, this paper studied the seed population dynamics of E. adenophorum at the levels of seed rain and seed bank, and its seed germination characteristics under effects of light and soil medium. The results showed that in the three habitats, the seed population of E. adenophorum only existed from March to June, and reached its peak by the end of April. The annual seed rainfall in bare land habitat amounted to 2.4 x 10(5) individuals per square meter, and all the seeds were distributed in the soil layer above 2 cm. The thousand seed weight and seed activity of E. adenophorum in bare land habitat were significantly higher than those in another two habitats. No active seed was found in the three habitats by the first ten days of July. Under artificial light condition, full light had some inhibitory effects on seed germination, while 28% of full light gave the highest germination rate. Sandy loam soil was more favorable for the seed germination, while in un-reclaimed red soil, both the germination velocity and germination rate were the lowest. PMID:16964927

  19. Multi-population genomic prediction using a multi-task Bayesian learning model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Genomic prediction in multiple populations can be viewed as a multi-task learning problem where tasks are to derive prediction equations for each population and multi-task learning property can be improved by sharing information across populations. The goal of this study was to develop a multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction with a strategy to effectively share information across populations. Simulation studies and real data from Holstein and Ayrshire dairy breeds with phenotypes on five milk production traits were used to evaluate the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model and compare with a single-task model and a simple data pooling method. Results A multi-task Bayesian learning model was proposed for multi-population genomic prediction. Information was shared across populations through a common set of latent indicator variables while SNP effects were allowed to vary in different populations. Both simulation studies and real data analysis showed the effectiveness of the multi-task model in improving genomic prediction accuracy for the smaller Ayshire breed. Simulation studies suggested that the multi-task model was most effective when the number of QTL was small (n?=?20), with an increase of accuracy by up to 0.09 when QTL effects were lowly correlated between two populations (??=?0.2), and up to 0.16 when QTL effects were highly correlated (??=?0.8). When QTL genotypes were included for training and validation, the improvements were 0.16 and 0.22, respectively, for scenarios of the low and high correlation of QTL effects between two populations. When the number of QTL was large (n?=?200), improvement was small with a maximum of 0.02 when QTL genotypes were not included for genomic prediction. Reduction in accuracy was observed for the simple pooling method when the number of QTL was small and correlation of QTL effects between the two populations was low. For the real data, the multi-task model achieved an increase of accuracy between 0 and 0.07 in the Ayrshire validation set when 28,206 SNPs were used, while the simple data pooling method resulted in a reduction of accuracy for all traits except for protein percentage. When 246,668 SNPs were used, the accuracy achieved from the multi-task model increased by 0 to 0.03, while using the pooling method resulted in a reduction of accuracy by 0.01 to 0.09. In the Holstein population, the three methods had similar performance. Conclusions Results in this study suggest that the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction is effective and has the potential to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction. PMID:24884927

  20. POPULATION EXPOSURES TO PARTICULATE MATTER: A COMPARISON OF EXPOSURE MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MEASUREMENT DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) is currently developing an integrated human exposure source-to-dose modeling system (HES2D). This modeling system will incorporate models that use a probabilistic approach to predict population exposures to environmental ...

  1. Can life-history traits predict the response of forb populations to changes in climate variability?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Harmony J. Dalgleish; David N. Koons; Peter B. Adler

    2009-01-01

    Summary 1. Climate change will cause changes in average temperature and precipitation as well as increased fluctuations around the mean, yet few studies have considered the impacts of altered climate vari- ability on plant populations. We tested whether life-history traits (expected life span, generation time and seed size) can predict plant responses to increased environmental variability across similar plant species

  2. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

  3. The Predictive Ability of IQ and Working Memory Scores in Literacy in an Adult Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alloway, Tracy Packiam; Gregory, David

    2013-01-01

    Literacy problems are highly prevalent and can persist into adulthood. Yet, the majority of research on the predictive nature of cognitive skills to literacy has primarily focused on development and adolescent populations. The aim of the present study was to extend existing research to investigate the roles of IQ scores and Working Memory…

  4. General properties of predictive population models in red grouse ( Lagopus lagopus scoticus )

    Microsoft Academic Search

    P. Rothery; R. Moss; A. Watson

    1984-01-01

    The general properties of an empirical predictive model of population fluctuations in red grouse are discussed. The model incorporates two observed time-lagged relationships between (a) chick production and spring numbers two years earlier, and (b) overwinter survival and numbers in spring one year earlier. The model produced oscillations which were slowly damped with a period of nine years. The addition

  5. Dynamical evolution and spatial mixing of multiple population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; D'Antona, Francesca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2013-03-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric observational studies have provided strong evidence for the widespread presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of multiple population clusters, focusing on the evolution of the spatial distributions of the first- (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars. In previous studies, we have suggested that SG stars formed from the ejecta of FG AGB stars are expected initially to be concentrated in the cluster inner regions. Here, by means of N-body simulations, we explore the time-scales and the dynamics of the spatial mixing of the FG and the SG populations and their dependence on the SG initial concentration. Our simulations show that, as the evolution proceeds, the radial profile of the SG/FG number ratio, NSG/NFG, is characterized by three regions: (1) a flat inner part; (2) a declining part in which FG stars are increasingly dominant and (3) an outer region where the NSG/NFG profile flattens again (the NSG/NFG profile may rise slightly again in the outermost cluster regions). Until mixing is complete and the NSG/NFG profile is flat over the entire cluster, the radial variation of NSG/NFG implies that the fraction of SG stars determined by observations covering a limited range of radial distances is not, in general, equal to the SG global fraction, (NSG/NFG)glob. The distance at which NSG/NFG equals (NSG/NFG)glob is approximately between 1 and 2 cluster half-mass radii. The time-scale for complete mixing depends on the SG initial concentration, but in all cases complete mixing is expected only for clusters in advanced evolutionary phases, having lost at least 60-70 per cent of their mass due to two-body relaxation (in addition to the early FG loss due to the cluster expansion triggered by SNII ejecta and gas expulsion).The results of our simulations suggest that in many Galactic globular clusters the SG should still be more spatially concentrated than the FG.

  6. Transcriptome dynamics-based operon prediction in prokaryotes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Inferring operon maps is crucial to understanding the regulatory networks of prokaryotic genomes. Recently, RNA-seq based transcriptome studies revealed that in many bacterial species the operon structure vary with the change of environmental conditions. Therefore, new computational solutions that use both static and dynamic data are necessary to create condition specific operon predictions. Results In this work, we propose a novel classification method that integrates RNA-seq based transcriptome profiles with genomic sequence features to accurately identify the operons that are expressed under a measured condition. The classifiers are trained on a small set of confirmed operons and then used to classify the remaining gene pairs of the organism studied. Finally, by linking consecutive gene pairs classified as operons, our computational approach produces condition-dependent operon maps. We evaluated our approach on various RNA-seq expression profiles of the bacteria Haemophilus somni, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica. Our results demonstrate that, using features depending on both transcriptome dynamics and genome sequence characteristics, we can identify operon pairs with high accuracy. Moreover, the combination of DNA sequence and expression data results in more accurate predictions than each one alone. Conclusion We present a computational strategy for the comprehensive analysis of condition-dependent operon maps in prokaryotes. Our method can be used to generate condition specific operon maps of many bacterial organisms for which high-resolution transcriptome data is available. PMID:24884724

  7. Multiprocess dynamic modeling of tumor evolution with bayesian tumor-specific predictions.

    PubMed

    Achilleos, Achilleas; Loizides, Charalambos; Hadjiandreou, Marios; Stylianopoulos, Triantafyllos; Mitsis, Georgios D

    2014-05-01

    We propose a sequential probabilistic mixture model for individualized tumor growth forecasting. In contrast to conventional deterministic methods for estimation and prediction of tumor evolution, we utilize all available tumor-specific observations up to the present time to approximate the unknown multi-scale process of tumor growth over time, in a stochastic context. The suggested mixture model uses prior information obtained from the general population and becomes more individualized as more observations from the tumor are sequentially taken into account. Inference can be carried out using the full, possibly multimodal, posterior, and predictive distributions instead of point estimates. In our simulation study we illustrate the superiority of the suggested multi-process dynamic linear model compared to the single process alternative. The validation of our approach was performed with experimental data from mice. The methodology suggested in the present study may provide a starting point for personalized adaptive treatment strategies. PMID:24488234

  8. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    ?erná, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  9. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

    PubMed Central

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

  10. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

    PubMed

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-08-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

  11. Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Vikas; de Barros, Felipe P J; Schuhmacher, Marta; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier

    2013-12-15

    We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty. PMID:24011618

  12. Modelling the impact of marine reserves on a population with depensatory dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, Matthew H; Kim, Peter S

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we use a spatially implicit, stage-structured model to evaluate marine reserve effectiveness for a fish population exhibiting depensatory (strong Allee) effects in its dynamics. We examine the stability and sensitivity of the equilibria of the modelled system with regards to key system parameters and find that for a reasonable set of parameters, populations can be protected from a collapse if a small percentage of the total area is set aside in reserves. Furthermore, the overall abundance of the population is predicted to achieve a maximum at a certain ratio A of reserve area to fished area, which depends heavily on the other system parameters such as the net export rate of fish from the marine reserves to the fished areas. This finding runs contrary to the contested "equivalence at best" result when comparing fishery management through traditional catch or effort control and management through marine reserves. Lastly, we analyse the problem from a bioeconomics perspective by computing the optimal harvesting policy using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, which suggests that the value for A which maximizes the optimal equilibrium fishery yield also maximizes population abundance when the cost per unit harvest is constant, but can increase substantially when the cost per unit harvest increases with the area being harvested. PMID:25124763

  13. Genetic and demographic dynamics of small populations of Silene latifolia

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C M Richards; S N Emery; D E McCauley

    2003-01-01

    Small local populations of Silene alba, a short-lived herbaceous plant, were sampled in 1994 and again in 1999. Sampling included estimates of population size and genetic diversity, as measured at six polymorphic allozyme loci. When averaged across populations, there was very little change between samples (about three generations) in population size, measures of within-population genetic diversity such as number of

  14. Temporal dynamics of emotional responding: amygdala recovery predicts emotional traits

    PubMed Central

    Schuyler, Brianna S.; Kral, Tammi R. A.; Jacquart, Jolene; Burghy, Cory A.; Weng, Helen Y.; Perlman, David M.; Bachhuber, David R. W.; Rosenkranz, Melissa A.; MacCoon, Donal G.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Lutz, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    An individual’s affective style is influenced by many things, including the manner in which an individual responds to an emotional challenge. Emotional response is composed of a number of factors, two of which are the initial reactivity to an emotional stimulus and the subsequent recovery once the stimulus terminates or ceases to be relevant. However, most neuroimaging studies examining emotional processing in humans focus on the magnitude of initial reactivity to a stimulus rather than the prolonged response. In this study, we use functional magnetic resonance imaging to study the time course of amygdala activity in healthy adults in response to presentation of negative images. We split the amygdala time course into an initial reactivity period and a recovery period beginning after the offset of the stimulus. We find that initial reactivity in the amygdala does not predict trait measures of affective style. Conversely, amygdala recovery shows predictive power such that slower amygdala recovery from negative images predicts greater trait neuroticism, in addition to lower levels of likability of a set of social stimuli (neutral faces). These data underscore the importance of taking into account temporal dynamics when studying affective processing using neuroimaging. PMID:23160815

  15. Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holforty, Wendy L. (Inventor); Powell, J. David (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

  16. Nonlinearities lead to qualitative differences in population dynamics of predator-prey systems.

    PubMed

    Ameixa, Olga M C C; Messelink, Gerben J; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator - one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

  17. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    PubMed Central

    Ameixa, Olga M. C. C.; Messelink, Gerben J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator – one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

  18. Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Culicoides imicola KIEFFER, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is the principal vector of Bluetongue disease in the Mediterranean basin, Africa and Asia. Previous studies have identified a range of eco-climatic variables associated with the distribution of C. imicola, and these relationships have been used to predict the large-scale distribution of the vector. However, these studies are not temporally-explicit and can not be used to predict the seasonality in C. imicola abundances. Between 2001 and 2006, longitudinal entomological surveillance was carried out throughout Italy, and provided a comprehensive spatio-temporal dataset of C. imicola catches in Onderstepoort-type black-light traps, in particular in Sardinia where the species is considered endemic. Methods We built a dynamic model that allows describing the effect of eco-climatic indicators on the monthly abundances of C. imicola in Sardinia. Model precision and accuracy were evaluated according to the influence of process and observation errors. Results A first-order autoregressive cofactor, a digital elevation model and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST)/or temperatures acquired from weather stations explained ~77% of the variability encountered in the samplings carried out in 9 sites during 6?years. Incorporating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or rainfall did not increase the model's predictive capacity. On average, dynamics simulations showed good accuracy (predicted vs. observed r corr?=?0.9). Although the model did not always reproduce the absolute levels of monthly abundances peaks, it succeeded in reproducing the seasonality in population level and allowed identifying the periods of low abundances and with no apparent activity. On that basis, we mapped C. imicola monthly distribution over the entire Sardinian region. Conclusions This study demonstrated prospects for modelling data arising from Culicoides longitudinal entomological surveillance. The framework explicitly incorporates the influence of eco-climatic factors on population growth rates and accounts for observation and process errors. Upon validation, such a model could be used to predict monthly population abundances on the basis of environmental conditions, and hence can potentially reduce the amount of entomological surveillance. PMID:23174043

  19. Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Kimball, John S.; VanRoekel-Patton, Denise L.; Hildreth, Michael B.; Wimberly, Michael C.

    2012-01-01

    Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems. PMID:23049143

  20. Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Kimball, John S; Vanroekel-Patton, Denise L; Hildreth, Michael B; Wimberly, Michael C

    2012-10-01

    Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems. PMID:23049143

  1. Evolutionary Game Dynamics in Finite Populations with Strong Selection and Weak Mutation

    PubMed Central

    Fudenberg, Drew; Nowak, Martin A.; Taylor, Christine

    2011-01-01

    We study stochastic game dynamics in finite populations. To this end we extend the classical Moran process to incorporate frequency-dependent selection and mutation. For 2 × 2 games, we give a complete analysis of the long-run behavior when mutation rates are small. For 3 × 3 coordination games, we provide a simple rule to determine which strategy will be selected in large populations. The expected motion in our model resembles the standard replicator dynamics when the population is large, but is qualitatively different when the population is small. Our analysis shows that even in large finite populations the behavior of a replicator-like system can be different from that of the standard replicator dynamics. As an application, we consider selective language dynamics. We determine which language will be spoken in finite large populations. The results have an intuitive interpretation but would not be expected from an analysis of the replicator dynamics. PMID:16987535

  2. Dynamical Phenotyping: Using Temporal Analysis of Clinically Collected Physiologic Data to Stratify Populations

    PubMed Central

    Albers, D. J.; Elhadad, Noémie; Tabak, E.; Perotte, A.; Hripcsak, George

    2014-01-01

    Using glucose time series data from a well measured population drawn from an electronic health record (EHR) repository, the variation in predictability of glucose values quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) was explained using a mechanistic endocrine model and manual and automated review of written patient records. The results suggest that predictability of glucose varies with health state where the relationship (e.g., linear or inverse) depends on the source of the acuity. It was found that on a fine scale in parameter variation, the less insulin required to process glucose, a condition that correlates with good health, the more predictable glucose values were. Nevertheless, the most powerful effect on predictability in the EHR subpopulation was the presence or absence of variation in health state, specifically, in- and out-of-control glucose versus in-control glucose. Both of these results are clinically and scientifically relevant because the magnitude of glucose is the most commonly used indicator of health as opposed to glucose dynamics, thus providing for a connection between a mechanistic endocrine model and direct insight to human health via clinically collected data. PMID:24933368

  3. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    PubMed Central

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-01-01

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

  4. Usefulness of multiparental populations of maize (Zea mays L.) for genome-based prediction.

    PubMed

    Lehermeier, Christina; Krämer, Nicole; Bauer, Eva; Bauland, Cyril; Camisan, Christian; Campo, Laura; Flament, Pascal; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Menz, Monica; Meyer, Nina; Moreau, Laurence; Moreno-González, Jesús; Ouzunova, Milena; Pausch, Hubert; Ranc, Nicolas; Schipprack, Wolfgang; Schönleben, Manfred; Walter, Hildrun; Charcosset, Alain; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2014-09-01

    The efficiency of marker-assisted prediction of phenotypes has been studied intensively for different types of plant breeding populations. However, one remaining question is how to incorporate and counterbalance information from biparental and multiparental populations into model training for genome-wide prediction. To address this question, we evaluated testcross performance of 1652 doubled-haploid maize (Zea mays L.) lines that were genotyped with 56,110 single nucleotide polymorphism markers and phenotyped for five agronomic traits in four to six European environments. The lines are arranged in two diverse half-sib panels representing two major European heterotic germplasm pools. The data set contains 10 related biparental dent families and 11 related biparental flint families generated from crosses of maize lines important for European maize breeding. With this new data set we analyzed genome-based best linear unbiased prediction in different validation schemes and compositions of estimation and test sets. Further, we theoretically and empirically investigated marker linkage phases across multiparental populations. In general, predictive abilities similar to or higher than those within biparental families could be achieved by combining several half-sib families in the estimation set. For the majority of families, 375 half-sib lines in the estimation set were sufficient to reach the same predictive performance of biomass yield as an estimation set of 50 full-sib lines. In contrast, prediction across heterotic pools was not possible for most cases. Our findings are important for experimental design in genome-based prediction as they provide guidelines for the genetic structure and required sample size of data sets used for model training. PMID:25236445

  5. Discrete Molecular Dynamics Can Predict Helical Prestructured Motifs in Disordered Proteins

    PubMed Central

    Han, Kyou-Hoon; Dokholyan, Nikolay V.; Tompa, Péter; Kalmár, Lajos; Heged?s, Tamás

    2014-01-01

    Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) lack a stable tertiary structure, but their short binding regions termed Pre-Structured Motifs (PreSMo) can form transient secondary structure elements in solution. Although disordered proteins are crucial in many biological processes and designing strategies to modulate their function is highly important, both experimental and computational tools to describe their conformational ensembles and the initial steps of folding are sparse. Here we report that discrete molecular dynamics (DMD) simulations combined with replica exchange (RX) method efficiently samples the conformational space and detects regions populating ?-helical conformational states in disordered protein regions. While the available computational methods predict secondary structural propensities in IDPs based on the observation of protein-protein interactions, our ab initio method rests on physical principles of protein folding and dynamics. We show that RX-DMD predicts ?-PreSMos with high confidence confirmed by comparison to experimental NMR data. Moreover, the method also can dissect ?-PreSMos in close vicinity to each other and indicate helix stability. Importantly, simulations with disordered regions forming helices in X-ray structures of complexes indicate that a preformed helix is frequently the binding element itself, while in other cases it may have a role in initiating the binding process. Our results indicate that RX-DMD provides a breakthrough in the structural and dynamical characterization of disordered proteins by generating the structural ensembles of IDPs even when experimental data are not available. PMID:24763499

  6. Population structure in the native range predicts the spread of introduced marine species.

    PubMed

    Gaither, Michelle R; Bowen, Brian W; Toonen, Robert J

    2013-06-01

    Forecasting invasion success remains a fundamental challenge in invasion biology. The effort to identify universal characteristics that predict which species become invasive has faltered in part because of the diversity of taxa and systems considered. Here, we use an alternative approach focused on the spread stage of invasions. FST, a measure of alternative fixation of alleles, is a common proxy for realized dispersal among natural populations, summarizing the combined influences of life history, behaviour, habitat requirements, population size, history and ecology. We test the hypothesis that population structure in the native range (FST) is negatively correlated with the geographical extent of spread of marine species in an introduced range. An analysis of the available data (29 species, nine phyla) revealed a significant negative correlation (R(2) = 0.245-0.464) between FST and the extent of spread of non-native species. Mode FST among pairwise comparisons between populations in the native range demonstrated the highest predictive power (R(2) = 0.464, p < 0.001). There was significant improvement when marker type was considered, with mtDNA datasets providing the strongest relationship (n = 21, R(2) = 0.333-0.516). This study shows that FST can be used to make qualitative predictions concerning the geographical extent to which a non-native marine species will spread once established in a new area. PMID:23595272

  7. Population structure in the native range predicts the spread of introduced marine species

    PubMed Central

    Gaither, Michelle R.; Bowen, Brian W.; Toonen, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Forecasting invasion success remains a fundamental challenge in invasion biology. The effort to identify universal characteristics that predict which species become invasive has faltered in part because of the diversity of taxa and systems considered. Here, we use an alternative approach focused on the spread stage of invasions. FST, a measure of alternative fixation of alleles, is a common proxy for realized dispersal among natural populations, summarizing the combined influences of life history, behaviour, habitat requirements, population size, history and ecology. We test the hypothesis that population structure in the native range (FST) is negatively correlated with the geographical extent of spread of marine species in an introduced range. An analysis of the available data (29 species, nine phyla) revealed a significant negative correlation (R2 = 0.245–0.464) between FST and the extent of spread of non-native species. Mode FST among pairwise comparisons between populations in the native range demonstrated the highest predictive power (R2 = 0.464, p < 0.001). There was significant improvement when marker type was considered, with mtDNA datasets providing the strongest relationship (n = 21, R2 = 0.333–0.516). This study shows that FST can be used to make qualitative predictions concerning the geographical extent to which a non-native marine species will spread once established in a new area. PMID:23595272

  8. Generalized predictive control based on error correction using the dynamic neural network

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Liu Xiaohua; Wang Xiuhong; Wane Yunge

    2000-01-01

    Considering the influence of modelling error on the robustness of nonlinear predictive control, the paper proposes a generalized predictive control algorithm based on error correction using the dynamic backpropagation network, the algorithm has dynamic compensation capability so that the dynamic error of the model can be effectively reduced and the modelling accuracy can be raised. The simulation results show the

  9. A Dynamic Method to Estimate Source Emission Rate and Predict Contaminant Concentrations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Qu Hongquan; Pang Liping

    2009-01-01

    It is very important to develop a method to predict contaminant concentrations in an enclosed space. The key technology is source emission rate estimation and dynamic concentration prediction. This paper presented a new method to estimate source emission rate and predict contaminant concentrations dynamically. A variable-structural contaminant concentration model was built, and then the extended Kalman filter was used to

  10. Analysis of the Execution Time Unpredictability caused by Dynamic Branch Prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jakob Engblom

    2003-01-01

    This paper investigates how dynamic branch predic- tion in a microprocessor affects the predictability of ex- ecution time for software running on that processor. By means of experiments on a number of real proces- sors employing various forms of branch prediction, we evaluate the impact of branch predictors on execution time predictability. The results indicate that dynamic branch predictors give

  11. Discrimination of fish populations using parasites: Random Forests on a 'predictable' host-parasite system.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Del-Olmo, A; Montero, F E; Fernández, M; Barrett, J; Raga, J A; Kostadinova, A

    2010-10-01

    We address the effect of spatial scale and temporal variation on model generality when forming predictive models for fish assignment using a new data mining approach, Random Forests (RF), to variable biological markers (parasite community data). Models were implemented for a fish host-parasite system sampled along the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of Spain and were validated using independent datasets. We considered 2 basic classification problems in evaluating the importance of variations in parasite infracommunities for assignment of individual fish to their populations of origin: multiclass (2-5 population models, using 2 seasonal replicates from each of the populations) and 2-class task (using 4 seasonal replicates from 1 Atlantic and 1 Mediterranean population each). The main results are that (i) RF are well suited for multiclass population assignment using parasite communities in non-migratory fish; (ii) RF provide an efficient means for model cross-validation on the baseline data and this allows sample size limitations in parasite tag studies to be tackled effectively; (iii) the performance of RF is dependent on the complexity and spatial extent/configuration of the problem; and (iv) the development of predictive models is strongly influenced by seasonal change and this stresses the importance of both temporal replication and model validation in parasite tagging studies. PMID:20602856

  12. Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1990-01-01

    Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

  13. Prediction of dynamic blade loading of the Francis-99 turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolle, J.; Cupillard, S.

    2015-01-01

    CFD simulations focusing on capturing dynamic fluctuations of the flow for three operating points were performed for a scale model of a high head Francis turbine. A mesh sensitivity study showed an influence of the near wall resolution, consequently a low Reynolds mesh with a SST turbulence model was used. Rotor/stator fluctuations are well reproduced with the full turbine simulation at all operating points. Velocity contours and average velocity profiles from LDV measurements in the draft tube confirm that the flow physics is generally well reproduced. Simplified approaches such as profile transform and Fourier transform underestimated the measured fluctuations. As full turbine simulations were time-consuming, a simulation with only the draft tube was performed at part load to predict the fluctuations in the draft tube cone. The SAS-SST turbulence model was able to capture the vortex rope behavior.

  14. Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Baseline Control Law: Architecture and Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    A model reference dynamic inversion control law has been developed to provide a baseline control law for research into adaptive elements and other advanced flight control law components. This controller has been implemented and tested in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the simulation results show excellent handling qualities throughout the limited flight envelope. A simple angular momentum formulation was chosen because it can be included in the stability proofs for many basic adaptive theories, such as model reference adaptive control. Many design choices and implementation details reflect the requirements placed on the system by the nonlinear flight environment and the desire to keep the system as basic as possible to simplify the addition of the adaptive elements. Those design choices are explained, along with their predicted impact on the handling qualities.

  15. The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Russell, James C.; Ruffino, Lise

    2012-01-01

    Local spatio-temporal resource variations can strongly influence the population dynamics of small mammals. This is particularly true on islands which are bottom-up driven systems, lacking higher order predators and with high variability in resource subsidies. The influence of resource fluctuations on animal survival may be mediated by individual movement among habitat patches, but simultaneously analysing survival, resource availability and habitat selection requires sophisticated analytical methods. We use a Bayesian multi-state capture–recapture model to estimate survival and movement probabilities of non-native black rats (Rattus rattus) across three habitats seasonally varying in resource availability. We find that survival varies most strongly with temporal rainfall patterns, overwhelming minor spatial variation among habitats. Surprisingly for a generalist forager, movement between habitats was rare, suggesting individuals do not opportunistically respond to spatial resource subsidy variations. Climate is probably the main driver of rodent population dynamics on islands, and even substantial habitat and seasonal spatial subsidies are overwhelmed in magnitude by predictable annual patterns in resource pulses. Marked variation in survival and capture has important implications for the timing of rat control. PMID:21775327

  16. A model describing the population dynamics of Sitobion avenae and Coccinella septempunctata

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. J. Skirvin; J. N. Perry; R. Harrington

    1997-01-01

    A model that described the summer population dynamics of the cereal aphid Sitobion avenae (Carter et al., 1982) was modified and extended to include the population dynamics of the aphidophagous predator Coccinella septempunctata. New equations were formulated to describe the dependence of aphid development and reproduction on temperature. The predation interaction between the aphid and coccinellid was formulated with a

  17. Landscape-Scale Spatial Population Dynamics in Human-Impacted Stream Systems

    E-print Network

    Lowe, Winsor H.

    Landscape-Scale Spatial Population Dynamics in Human-Impacted Stream Systems WINSOR H. LOWE extinctions in systems exposed to human perturba- tion. Current understanding of spatial population dynamics in streams is largely limited to the reach scale and is there- fore inadequate to address species response

  18. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ZEBRA MUSSELS DREISSENA POLYMORPHA (PALLAS, 1771) DURING THE INITIAL INVASION

    E-print Network

    Cope, W. Gregory

    POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ZEBRA MUSSELS DREISSENA POLYMORPHA (PALLAS, 1771) DURING THE INITIAL was to document and model the population dynamics of zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas, 1771) in Pool 8 information about over- winter growth and survival. The annual density of zebra mussels in Pool 8 of the UMR

  19. Review of Gizzard Shad Population Dynamics at the Northwestern Edge of Its Range

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Melissa R. Wuellne R; W. Willis

    Gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum is widely distributed in North America, and South Dakota marks the northwestern edge of its native range. To date, most research regarding population dynamics of gizzard shad has been con- ducted in more southerly waters. We reviewed the dynamics and biology of giz- zard shad populations in South Dakota and compared this information with that reported

  20. Fisheries Management and Ecology 1995, 2, 61-73 Population dynamics and management of

    E-print Network

    Lorenzen, Kai

    Fisheries Management and Ecology 1995, 2, 61-73 Population dynamics and management of culture-based fisheries K. LORENZEN Renewable Resources Assessment Group, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London, United Kingdom Abstract The population dynamics of culture-based fisheries

  1. Population-Based Incremental Learning With Associative Memory for Dynamic Environments

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shengxiang Yang; Xin Yao

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, interest in studying evolutionary algorithms (EAs) for dynamic optimization problems (DOPs) has grown due to its importance in real-world applications. Several approaches, such as the memory and multiple population schemes, have been developed for EAs to address dynamic problems. This paper investigates the application of the memory scheme for population-based incremental learning (PBIL) algorithms, a class of

  2. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms. PMID:24433569

  3. Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria.

    PubMed

    McQueen, Philip G

    2010-08-01

    Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12551-010-0034-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20730124

  4. The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    E-print Network

    A. Mary Selvam

    2003-10-07

    Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer. The existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent flows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in turbulence. Numerical weather prediction models based on the inherently non-linear Navier-Stokes equations do not give realistic forecasts because of the following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for atmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to initial conditions give chaotic solutions characteristic of deterministic chaos (2) the governing equations do not incorporate the dynamical interactions and co-existence of the complete spectrum of turbulent fluctuations which form an integral part of the large coherent weather systems (3) limitations of available computer capacity necessitates severe truncation of the governing equations, thereby generating errors of approximations (4) the computer precision related roundoff errors magnify the earlier mentioned uncertainties exponentially with time and the model predictions become unrealistic. The accurate modelling of weather phenomena therefore requires alternative concepts and computational techniques. In this paper a universal theory of deterministic chaos applicable to the formation of coherent weather structures in the ABL is presented.

  5. HLA-DP2 binding prediction by molecular dynamics simulations

    PubMed Central

    Doytchinova, Irini; Petkov, Peicho; Dimitrov, Ivan; Atanasova, Mariyana; Flower, Darren R

    2011-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) II proteins bind peptide fragments derived from pathogen antigens and present them at the cell surface for recognition by T cells. MHC proteins are divided into Class I and Class II. Human MHC Class II alleles are grouped into three loci: HLA-DP, HLA-DQ, and HLA-DR. They are involved in many autoimmune diseases. In contrast to HLA-DR and HLA-DQ proteins, the X-ray structure of the HLA-DP2 protein has been solved quite recently. In this study, we have used structure-based molecular dynamics simulation to derive a tool for rapid and accurate virtual screening for the prediction of HLA-DP2-peptide binding. A combinatorial library of 247 peptides was built using the “single amino acid substitution” approach and docked into the HLA-DP2 binding site. The complexes were simulated for 1 ns and the short range interaction energies (Lennard–Jones and Coulumb) were used as binding scores after normalization. The normalized values were collected into quantitative matrices (QMs) and their predictive abilities were validated on a large external test set. The validation shows that the best performing QM consisted of Lennard–Jones energies normalized over all positions for anchor residues only plus cross terms between anchor-residues. PMID:21898654

  6. The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Bustos, Sebastián; Gomez, Charles; Hausmann, Ricardo; Hidalgo, César A.

    2012-01-01

    In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that their nestedness remains constant over time and that it is sustained by both, a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the industries that are missing according to nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks. PMID:23185326

  7. Population dynamics of a South American rodent: seasonal structure interacting with climate, density dependence and predator effects.

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Jaksic, Fabian M

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the field of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non-reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear first-order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular fluctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi-arid region of central Chile. We found that factors influencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodent's population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an in-depth understanding of the community-weather system. PMID:12573073

  8. Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

  9. Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules. PMID:25619664

  10. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

    1999-01-01

    Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

  11. Bioaccumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls by zebra mussel populations predicted on the basis of bioenergetics

    SciTech Connect

    Yankovich, T. [Trent Univ., Peterborough, Ontario (Canada)

    1995-12-31

    Hydrophobic organic contaminants, such as PCBs, partition between several phases in aquatic environments. In order to predict contaminant partitioning and flux rates between aquatic biota and other environmental phases, it is necessary to have a basic understanding of the physico-chemical properties characteristic of the contaminant of interest, in addition to exposure rates of organisms to various contaminated phases. Exposure regimes are often dictated by food availability and corresponding feeding rates necessary to meet organism energetic requirements. Therefore, a model coupling zebra mussel bioenergetics and predicted PCB bioaccumulation has been constructed to assess the impact of zebra mussel populations on organic contaminant transfer in freshwater systems. The potential impact of mussel populations on organic contaminant transfer and energy flow will be discussed.

  12. Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

    PubMed

    Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2012-02-01

    In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved. PMID:21557798

  13. Evolution of virulence driven by predator-prey interaction: Possible consequences for population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Morozov, A Yu; Adamson, M W

    2011-05-01

    The evolution of pathogen virulence in natural populations has conventionally been considered as a result of selection caused by the interactions of the host with its pathogen(s). The host population, however, is generally embedded in complex trophic interactions with other populations in the community, in particular, intensive predation on the infected host can increase its mortality, and this can affect the course of virulence evolution. Reciprocally, in the long run, the evolution of virulence within an infected host can affect the patterns of population dynamics of a predator consuming the host (e.g. resulting in large amplitude oscillations, causing a severe drop in the population size, etc.). Surprisingly, neither the effect of predation on the evolution of virulence within a host, nor the influence of the evolution of virulence upon the consumer's dynamics has been addressed in the literature yet. In this paper, we consider a classical S-I ecoepidemiological model in which the infected host is consumed by a predator. We are particularly interested in the evolutionarily stable virulence of the pathogen in the model and its dependence upon ecologically relevant parameters. We show that predation can prominently shift the evolutionarily stable virulence towards more severe strains as compared to the same system without predation. We demonstrate that the evolution of virulence can result in a succession of dynamical regimes and can even lead to the extinction of the predator in the long run. The presence of a predator can indirectly affect the evolution within its prey since the evolutionarily stable virulence becomes a function of the prey growth rate, which would not be the case in a predator-free system. We find that the evolutionarily stable virulence largely depends on the carrying capacity K of the prey in a non-monotonous way. The model also predicts that in an eutrophic environment the shift of virulence towards evolutionarily stable benign strains can cause demographically stochastic evolutionary suicide, resulting in the extinction of both species, thus artificially maintaining severe strains of pathogen can enhance the persistence of both species. PMID:21320512

  14. Deep-sea fishes in Canada’s Atlantic: population declines and predicted recovery times

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Krista D. Baker; Jennifer A. Devine; Richard L. Haedrich

    2009-01-01

    Because of their slow growth rates, late maturity, low fecundity and long potential lifespans, deep-sea fishes are vulnerable\\u000a to and theoretically slow to recover from overexploitation and bycatch. As industrial fishing moved into the deep sea, population\\u000a declines were predicted and five species were shown to meet The World Conservation Union (IUCN) criteria for endangered species\\u000a in Atlantic Canadian waters

  15. An Approach to Predict Risks to Wildlife Populations from Mercury and Other Stressors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Diane Nacci; Marguerite Pelletier; Jim Lake; Rick Bennett; John Nichols; Romona Haebler; Jason Grear; Anne Kuhn; Jane Copeland; Matthew Nicholson; Steven Walters; WAYNE R. MUNNS JR

    2005-01-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental

  16. State-space models for the dynamics of wild animal populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. T. Buckland; K. B. Newmanb; L. Thomas; N. B. Koesters

    2004-01-01

    We develop a unified framework for jointly defining population dynamics models and measurements taken on a population. The framework is a state-space model where the population processes are modelled by the state process and measurements are modelled by the observation process. In many cases, the expected value for the state process can be represented as a generalisation of the standard

  17. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department Model in Genetics WCNA 2008 2 / 38 #12;The Discrete Model Consider a single haploid panmictic population in Genetics WCNA 2008 3 / 38 #12;The Discrete Model Let the fraction of the population with allele Ai at locus

  18. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department in Genetics Vanderbilt 2008 2 / 52 #12;The Discrete Model Consider a single haploid panmictic population in Genetics Vanderbilt 2008 3 / 52 #12;The Discrete Model Let the fraction of the population with allele Ai

  19. BIO 320 Project on Population Dynamics 1. Due Friday, 8 December 2008, the last class meeting.

    E-print Network

    Caraco, Thomas

    BIO 320 Project on Population Dynamics 1. Due Friday, 8 December 2008, the last class meeting. 2 basis of population biology. Project should examine a quantitative question (or questions) about investigation of single populations, and interacting species. Project will report behavior of model

  20. Population dynamics of Mammillaria magnimamma Haworth. (Cactaceae) in a lava-field in central Mexico

    E-print Network

    López-Villavicencio, Manuela

    analysis, Long-lived species, Population projection matrices, Stochas- tic simulations Abstract One-based population projection ma- trices (1996/97 and 1997/98). Demographic data were gathered directly fromPopulation dynamics of Mammillaria magnimamma Haworth. (Cactaceae) in a lava-field in central

  1. Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: Pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

    E-print Network

    Mitchell, Mike

    Available online 22 January 2013 Keywords: Dispersal Population contribution Puma concolor Source to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by interHuman-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: Pumas in landscapes with varying

  2. Weed populations and crop rotations : Exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shana K. Mertens; Frank van den Bosch

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on weed populations usually invoke the diversity of environments caused by different crops that

  3. Population Dynamics of the Boll Weevil and Modified Cotton Types: Implications for Pest Management.

    E-print Network

    Walker, J. K. Jr.; Niles, G. A.

    1971-01-01

    .....-.-.--.----.-----------------.------.--.------ 2 Introduction .....---------- ~~~~~~~~~~-~~--......... 5 Methods ....-.-.....--...---------------.--------------------------...----.--...----- 5 Population Dynamics of the First Generation ...... 5 Population Dynamics of the Second Generation..... 5 Results ....~~....~~~~~--~~~~~.~~~~---.---... 5 First Generation Studies ..-.-....-..---..-------..-------. 5 Second Generation Studies .......-....-----------.--...----. 7 Implication of Population Study Findings ............ 8 Plant Breeding...

  4. Predicting Student Academic Performance in an Engineering Dynamics Course: A Comparison of Four Types of Predictive Mathematical Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Shaobo; Fang, Ning

    2013-01-01

    Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…

  5. Dynamic object grasping of dexterous hand based on predictive control algorithm

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Qingyang Yu; Bin Li; Weijia Zhou

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic object grasping strategy based on the predictive control algorithm. Simulation results and preliminary experiments show that the control method is able to complete the dynamic object grasping with this strategy.

  6. Stochastic multiplicative population growth predicts and interprets Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Joel E.; Xu, Meng; Schuster, William S. F.

    2013-01-01

    Taylor's law (TL) asserts that the variance of the density (individuals per area or volume) of a set of comparable populations is a power-law function of the mean density of those populations. Despite the empirical confirmation of TL in hundreds of species, there is little consensus about why TL is so widely observed and how its estimated parameters should be interpreted. Here, we report that the Lewontin–Cohen (henceforth LC) model of stochastic population dynamics, which has been widely discussed and applied, leads to a spatial TL in the limit of large time and provides an explicit, exact interpretation of its parameters. The exponent of TL exceeds 2 if and only if the LC model is supercritical (growing on average), equals 2 if and only if the LC model is deterministic, and is less than 2 if and only if the LC model is subcritical (declining on average). TL and the LC model describe the spatial variability and the temporal dynamics of populations of trees on long-term plots censused over 75 years at the Black Rock Forest, Cornwall, NY, USA. PMID:23427171

  7. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely applied. PMID:24494553

  8. Genomic Prediction in Maize Breeding Populations with Genotyping-by-Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Crossa, José; Beyene, Yoseph; Kassa, Semagn; Pérez, Paulino; Hickey, John M.; Chen, Charles; de los Campos, Gustavo; Burgueño, Juan; Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Buckler, Ed; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Lopez Cruz, Marco A.; Babu, Raman

    2013-01-01

    Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) technologies have proven capacity for delivering large numbers of marker genotypes with potentially less ascertainment bias than standard single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Therefore, GBS has become an attractive alternative technology for genomic selection. However, the use of GBS data poses important challenges, and the accuracy of genomic prediction using GBS is currently undergoing investigation in several crops, including maize, wheat, and cassava. The main objective of this study was to evaluate various methods for incorporating GBS information and compare them with pedigree models for predicting genetic values of lines from two maize populations evaluated for different traits measured in different environments (experiments 1 and 2). Given that GBS data come with a large percentage of uncalled genotypes, we evaluated methods using nonimputed, imputed, and GBS-inferred haplotypes of different lengths (short or long). GBS and pedigree data were incorporated into statistical models using either the genomic best linear unbiased predictors (GBLUP) or the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regressions, and prediction accuracy was quantified using cross-validation methods. The following results were found: relative to pedigree or marker-only models, there were consistent gains in prediction accuracy by combining pedigree and GBS data; there was increased predictive ability when using imputed or nonimputed GBS data over inferred haplotype in experiment 1, or nonimputed GBS and information-based imputed short and long haplotypes, as compared to the other methods in experiment 2; the level of prediction accuracy achieved using GBS data in experiment 2 is comparable to those reported by previous authors who analyzed this data set using SNP arrays; and GBLUP and RKHS models with pedigree with nonimputed and imputed GBS data provided the best prediction correlations for the three traits in experiment 1, whereas for experiment 2 RKHS provided slightly better prediction than GBLUP for drought-stressed environments, and both models provided similar predictions in well-watered environments. PMID:24022750

  9. Coupling Terrestrial and Atmospheric Water Dynamics to Improve Prediction in a Changing Environment

    E-print Network

    Lyon, Steve W.; Dominguez, Francina; Gochis, David J.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Castro, Christopher; Chow, Fotini K.; Fan, Ying; Fuka, Daniel; Hong, Yang; Kucera, Paul A.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidli, Juerg; Snyder, Peter K.; Teuling, Adriaam J.; Twine, Tracy E.; Levis, Samuel; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Sealy, Andrea M.; Walter, M. Todd

    2008-09-01

    Fluxes across the land surface directly influence predictions of ecological processes, atmospheric dynamics, and terrestrial hydrology. However, many simplifications are made in numerical models when considering ...

  10. Predicting Program Execution Times by Analyzing Static and Dynamic Program Paths

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chang Yun Park

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a method to predict guaranteed and tight deterministic execution time bounds of a sequential program. The basic prediction technique is a static analysis based on simple timing schema for source-level language constructs, which gives accurate predictions in many cases. Using powerful user-provided information, dynamic path analysis refines looser predictions by eliminating infeasible paths and decomposing the possible

  11. Fluid mechanics of dynamic stall. II - Prediction of full scale characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ericsson, L. E.; Reding, J. P.

    1988-01-01

    Analytical extrapolations are made from experimental subscale dynamics to predict full scale characteristics of dynamic stall. The method proceeds by establishing analytic relationships between dynamic and static aerodynamic characteristics induced by viscous flow effects. The method is then validated by predicting dynamic test results on the basis of corresponding static test data obtained at the same subscale flow conditions, and the effect of Reynolds number on the static aerodynamic characteristics are determined from subscale to full scale flow conditions.

  12. Population-based visual acuity in the presence of defocus well predicted by classical theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weeber, Henk A.; Featherstone, Kristen A.; Piers, Patricia A.

    2010-07-01

    According to classical theory, visual acuity (VA) can be modeled using the intersection of the eye's modulation transfer function with a retinal threshold function. To date, there have been limited attempts to validate this methodology by comparing theory with actual measured data. We use the methodology to predict the visual acuity in the presence of defocus of a population of cataract patients implanted with diffractive multifocal intraocular lenses. For the prediction, we used a set of physiological eye models that include chromatic and higher order aberrations. We found that the simulations correlated strongly to the clinical outcomes (R2=0.93). While the simulated VA of the eye models was systematically 0.05 logMAR units lower (better acuity) than the clinical results, this difference was independent of defocus (p=0.98). These results show that when the simple and straightforward classical theory is applied using physiological eye models, accurate predictions of the VA, and through-focus VA of a population can be made. This method may be suited for predicting visual performance of new cataract and refractive treatments.

  13. Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (principal investigators)

    1981-01-01

    The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

  14. A model for amphipod ( Talitrus saltator) population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anastácio, P. M.; Gonçalves, S. C.; Pardal, M. A.; Marques, J. C.

    2003-10-01

    This study provides a population dynamics model for one of the most common species ( Talitrus saltator) in sandy beaches. Sensitivity analysis showed that in the model the abundance of T. saltator is deeply affected by variations in the minimum recruitment day length, the minimum temperature at recruitment, and the period between recruitments. The mortality rate, as expected, also had a profound effect on model performance. The abundance (IST, ind m -1) of T. saltator was most sensitive to the initial number of individuals in age class 5 (ca. 4 months old) and least sensitive to the initial number in age class 9 (ca. 8 months old). Data used for the calibration of the model were obtained in the Lavos beach in central Portugal. The model is based on differential equations and it was constructed using Stella simulation software. Five different model versions were tested corresponding to different modes of recruitment that could fit the data. It was found that the best model was obtained when considering reproduction dependent on temperature and photoperiod and occurring on a semi-lunar basis. Two out of the five different model versions tested gave a good statistical performance. Only one of these two model versions makes an effective use of causality mechanisms. This was also the model with the best intercept and slope of the simulated vs. observed regression equation. The other statistically satisfactory model used continuous reproduction between two dates. These dates do not match a photoperiod threshold. The final model version (e) may serve as a useful tool, when used alone or when coupled with other models. One of its uses could be in assessing the effects of human actions upon a sandy beach ecosystem.

  15. Quantifying Salmonella population dynamics in water and biofilms.

    PubMed

    Sha, Qiong; Vattem, Dhiraj A; Forstner, Michael R J; Hahn, Dittmar

    2013-01-01

    Members of the bacterial genus Salmonella are recognized worldwide as major zoonotic pathogens often found to persist in non-enteric environments including heterogeneous aquatic biofilms. In this study, Salmonella isolates that had been detected repeatedly over time in aquatic biofilms at different sites in Spring Lake, San Marcos, Texas, were identified as serovars Give, Thompson, Newport and -:z10:z39. Pathogenicity results from feeding studies with the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as host confirmed that these strains were pathogenic, with Salmonella-fed C. elegans dying faster (mean survival time between 3 and 4 days) than controls, i.e., Escherichia coli-fed C. elegans (mean survival time of 9.5 days). Cells of these isolates inoculated into water at a density of up to 10(6)?ml(-1) water declined numerically by 3 orders of magnitude within 2 days, reaching the detection limit of our quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-based quantification technique (i.e., 10(3) cells ml(-1)). Similar patterns were obtained for cells in heterogeneous aquatic biofilms developed on tiles and originally free of Salmonella that were kept in the inoculated water. Cell numbers increased during the first days to more than 10(7) cells cm(-2), and then declined over time. Ten-fold higher cell numbers of Salmonella inoculated into water or into biofilm resulted in similar patterns of population dynamics, though cells in biofilms remained detectable with numbers around 10(4) cells cm(-2) after 4 weeks. Independent of detectability by qPCR, samples of all treatments harbored viable salmonellae that resembled the inoculated isolates after 4 weeks of incubation. These results demonstrate that pathogenic salmonellae were isolated from heterogeneous aquatic biofilms and that they could persist and stay viable in such biofilms in high numbers for some time. PMID:22890729

  16. Observation of diffusion processes in earthquake populations and implications for the predictability of seismicity systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marsan, David; Bean, Christopher J.; Steacy, Sandy; McCloskey, John

    2000-12-01

    Scale invariance, either in space or in time, has been shown in many papers to characterize earthquake distributions. Unfortunately, little work has been dedicated to looking at the general space-time scaling invariance of seismicity systems, even though a better understanding of how the two domains (spatial and temporal) link together could help the development of the stochastic dynamical modeling of earthquake populations. In this paper we report the observation of diffusion processes of temporally correlated seismic activity for three different data sets: a mine (Creighton Mine, Canada), the Long Valley Caldera in eastern California, and a 7-year period of recorded seismic activity in southern California. The observed subdiffusion processes are indicative of the general space-time scaling of the system, taking the form of a slow power law growth R(t) ˜ tH of the mean distance R(t) between the main event and the temporally correlated afterevents occuring after a delay t. H is found on average to be small (0.1 for Creighton Mine, 0.22 for the Long Valley Caldera, and 0.22 for the southern California main events with magnitude ?1.5) but fluctuates significantly from one main event to the other: the diffusion is found to be intermittent (non-Gaussian) and multiscaling, and except for the Long Valley Caldera, a systematic correlation between the sizes of the main event and subsequent afterevents and the growth exponent H is observed. While classical viscous relaxation models (e.g., elastic listhosphere-plastic asthenosphere coupling, or fluid flow triggered by sudden changes in pore pressure) have been proposed to characterize this relaxation by homogeneous (i.e., nonintermittent) normal (H = 0.5) diffusion processes, the direct implication of the reported results is that seismicity systems, at spatial scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers and small (microearthquakes in a mine) to intermediate magnitudes, relax spatiotemporally in a nonelastic way, revealing the stochastic space-time scale-invariant nature of such systems. Since these diffusion processes correspond to a loss of information with time on the location of the main event, they can be used to investigate the limits of predictability, at all spatial scales, of seismicity systems in terms of the spatiotemporal clustering of temporally correlated earthquakes.

  17. Graphical exploratory data analysis of RNA secondary structure dynamics predicted by the massively parallel genetic algorithm.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Bruce A; Kasprzak, Wojciech; Grunewald, Calvin; Aman, Javed

    2006-12-01

    Studies indicate that RNA may enter intermediate and multiple conformational states, which may impact gene expression and molecular function. It is known that the biologically functional states of RNA molecules may not correspond to their minimum energy conformations, that kinetic barriers may trap the molecule in a local minimum, that folding often occurs during transcription, and that cases exist in which a molecule will transition between one or more functional conformations. Thus, methods for simulating the folding pathway and dynamic behavior of an RNA molecule are important for the prediction of RNA structure and its associated functions. We have developed several data mining techniques guided by interactive visualization tools associated with our massively parallel genetic algorithm for RNA/DNA secondary structure prediction, MPGAfold, and StructureLab analysis workbench. Most of the methods and tools are also applicable to dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) folding data analysis. When applied to MPGAfold results these methodologies are used to determine the significant intermediate and final structures associated with co-transcriptional and full length RNA folding. Since the genetic algorithm is essentially stochastic, multiple runs are required to develop a consensus understanding of an RNA structure. The interactive visualizations facilitate interpretation of results from sequential or full length individual MPGAfold runs, final results of multiple folding runs, including multiple population sizes, and the results from multiple RNA sequences of one family. This paper describes several of these techniques and shows how they are used to help solve this highly combinatoric problem. PMID:16725358

  18. Population Synthesis in the Blue. IV. Accurate Model Predictions for Lick Indices and UBV Colors in Single Stellar Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiavon, Ricardo P.

    2007-07-01

    We present a new set of model predictions for 16 Lick absorption line indices from H? through Fe5335 and UBV colors for single stellar populations with ages ranging between 1 and 15 Gyr, [Fe/H] ranging from -1.3 to +0.3, and variable abundance ratios. The models are based on accurate stellar parameters for the Jones library stars and a new set of fitting functions describing the behavior of line indices as a function of effective temperature, surface gravity, and iron abundance. The abundances of several key elements in the library stars have been obtained from the literature in order to characterize the abundance pattern of the stellar library, thus allowing us to produce model predictions for any set of abundance ratios desired. We develop a method to estimate mean ages and abundances of iron, carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, and calcium that explores the sensitivity of the various indices modeled to those parameters. The models are compared to high-S/N data for Galactic clusters spanning the range of ages, metallicities, and abundance patterns of interest. Essentially all line indices are matched when the known cluster parameters are adopted as input. Comparing the models to high-quality data for galaxies in the nearby universe, we reproduce previous results regarding the enhancement of light elements and the spread in the mean luminosity-weighted ages of early-type galaxies. When the results from the analysis of blue and red indices are contrasted, we find good consistency in the [Fe/H] that is inferred from different Fe indices. Applying our method to estimate mean ages and abundances from stacked SDSS spectra of early-type galaxies brighter than L*, we find mean luminosity-weighed ages of the order of ~8 Gyr and iron abundances slightly below solar. Abundance ratios, [X/Fe], tend to be higher than solar and are positively correlated with galaxy luminosity. Of all elements, nitrogen is the more strongly correlated with galaxy luminosity, which seems to indicate secondary nitrogen enrichment. If that interpretation is correct, this result may impose a lower limit of 50-200 Myr to the timescale of star formation in early-type galaxies. Unlike clusters, galaxies show a systematic effect whereby higher order, bluer, Balmer lines yield younger ages than H?. This age discrepancy is stronger for lower luminosity galaxies. We examine four possible scenarios to explain this trend. Contamination of the bluer indices by a metal-poor stellar population with a blue horizontal branch cannot account for the data. Blue stragglers and abundance-ratio effects cannot be ruled out, as they can potentially satisfy the data, even though this can only be achieved by resorting to extreme conditions, such as extremely high [O/Fe] or specific blue-straggler frequencies. The most likely explanation is the presence of small amounts of a young/intermediate-age stellar population component. We simulate this effect by producing two-component models and show that they provide a reasonably good match to the data when the mass fraction of the young component is typically a few percent. If confirmed, this result implies star formation has been extended in early-type galaxies, and more so in less massive galaxies, which seems to lend support to the ``downsizing'' scenario. Moreover, it implies that stellar population synthesis models are capable of constraining not only the mean ages of stellar populations in galaxies, but also their age spread.

  19. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  20. Predicting the effect of angular momentum on the dissociation dynamics of highly rotationally excited radical intermediates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brynteson, Matthew D.; Butler, Laurie J.

    2015-02-01

    We present a model which accurately predicts the net speed distributions of products resulting from the unimolecular decomposition of rotationally excited radicals. The radicals are produced photolytically from a halogenated precursor under collision-free conditions so they are not in a thermal distribution of rotational states. The accuracy relies on the radical dissociating with negligible energetic barrier beyond the endoergicity. We test the model predictions using previous velocity map imaging and crossed laser-molecular beam scattering experiments that photolytically generated rotationally excited CD2CD2OH and C3H6OH radicals from brominated precursors; some of those radicals then undergo further dissociation to CD2CD2 + OH and C3H6 + OH, respectively. We model the rotational trajectories of these radicals, with high vibrational and rotational energy, first near their equilibrium geometry, and then by projecting each point during the rotation to the transition state (continuing the rotational dynamics at that geometry). This allows us to accurately predict the recoil velocity imparted in the subsequent dissociation of the radical by calculating the tangential velocities of the CD2CD2/C3H6 and OH fragments at the transition state. The model also gives a prediction for the distribution of angles between the dissociation fragments' velocity vectors and the initial radical's velocity vector. These results are used to generate fits to the previously measured time-of-flight distributions of the dissociation fragments; the fits are excellent. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the precession of the angular velocity vector for a rotating radical. We also show that if the initial angular momentum of the rotating radical lies nearly parallel to a principal axis, the very narrow range of tangential velocities predicted by this model must be convoluted with a J = 0 recoil velocity distribution to achieve a good result. The model relies on measuring the kinetic energy release when the halogenated precursor is photodissociated via a repulsive excited state but does not include any adjustable parameters. Even when different conformers of the photolytic precursor are populated, weighting the prediction by a thermal conformer population gives an accurate prediction for the relative velocity vectors of the fragments from the highly rotationally excited radical intermediates.

  1. Influence of individual aggressiveness on the dynamics of competitive populations.

    PubMed

    Sanchez, E; Auger, P; Bravo de la Parra, R

    1997-11-01

    Two populations are subdivided into two categories of individuals (hawks and lows). Individuals fight to have access to a resource which is necessary for their survival. Conflicts occur between individuals belonging to the same population and to different populations. We investigate the long term effects of the conflicts on the stability of the community. The model is a set of ODE's with four variables corresponding to hawk and dove individuals of the two populations. Two time scales are considered. A fast time scale is used to describe frequent encounters and fightings between individuals trying to monopolize the resource. A slow time scale is used for the demography and the long term effects of encounters. We use aggregation methods in order to reduce this model into a system of two ODE's only for the total densities of the two populations which is found to be a classical Lotka-Volterra competition model. We study different cases of proportions of hawks and doves in both populations on the global coexistence and the mutual exclusion of the two populations. Pure dove tactics in both populations are unstable. In cases of mixed hawk and dove in both populations, there is coexistence. Pure dove or mixed hawk-dove tactics in one population can coexist with pure hawks in the other one when the costs of fightings between hawks are large enough. PMID:9436300

  2. [The relationship between population dynamics and the process of development: an interdependence requiring the definition of population policies].

    PubMed

    1989-01-01

    The case of Senegal is used to illustrate the impact of population dynamics on the economic development of a country and the process of creating a population policy. 1 of the 6 principles of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action concerning African population and autonomous development was the interdependence between population and development, but interest in the problem was only sporadic until the deepening of the economic crisis. Population growth is now regarded as a major constraint on improvement of welfare for the population. The population of the Sahel countries has almost doubled in the past 2 decades as a consequence of very high fertility rates and declining mortality rates. About 44% of the Sahel population is under 15 years old and only about 53% is aged 15-64. The population is unequally distributed and the proportion urban increased from 18 to 23% between 1982-85. The general opinion is that the African population is increasing more rapidly than available resources. From 1973-83, Senegal's gross national product increased by 2.2%/year on average, less than the population increase of 2.5%. Cereal production increased by 1%/year between 1973-81. Investments in agriculture have declined continuously since 1973. Cereal needs are on the order of 6.69 million tons, while production is only 4.4 million tons. According to the World Bank the literacy rate for 5 Sahel countries was only 15% in 1982, and only 35% of school aged children are enrolled. The constant increase of population is also putting pressure on health services. In response to these problems, Senegal developed its population policy in 3 phases. In the 1st phase, 3 commissions and a working group carried out research and documentation around the country, producing sectorial documents. In the 2nd phase, workshops and seminars were held for the critical examination of the sectorial documents, culminating in presentation of a synthesis to the National Commission on Population and to the Interministerial Council, which adopted the work. The population policy is a longterm orientation seeking to balance population development with economic and social development in Senegal. The 4 parts of the policy declaration examine population and development problems in Senegal, present the different aspects of a population policy, outline legislative and regulatory actions to be undertaken, and identify personnel and institutions that will be involved. PMID:12316034

  3. Population dynamics of the estuarine isopod Sphaeroma rugicauda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heath, David J.; Khazaeli, Aziz A.

    1985-01-01

    Population density, spatial distribution, size distribution, sex ratio and fecundity were studied in a population over a three-year period. Young are produced in the summer, overwinter, reproduce and then die. Population densities decrease due to mortality from March to June and increase due to natality from July to September. Climate has a significant effect on population density. An abnormally warm summer (1976) led to earlier breeding, reduced fecundity, faster growth and higher mortality of juveniles. This led to fewer, larger, breeding adults in 1977. Two years which were climatically similar showed similar population trends. Egg and offspring number were positively correlated with female size but differed between years. Brood pouch mortality was estimated at 17%. Marked changes in population sex ratio were shown to be artefacts due to differences in swimming activity of the sexes.

  4. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic, environmental and population fluctuations

    PubMed Central

    Ezard, Thomas H.G.; Côté, Steeve D.; Pelletier, Fanie

    2009-01-01

    Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments. PMID:19414464

  5. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

  6. Dynamics of Encoding in a Population of Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Bruce W.

    1972-01-01

    A simple encoder model, which is a reasonable idealization from known electrophysiological properties, yields a population in which the variation of the firing rate with time is a perfect replica of the shape of the input stimulus. A population of noise-free encoders which depart even slightly from the simple model yield a very much degraded copy of the input stimulus. The presence of noise improves the performance of such a population. The firing rate of a population of neurons is related to the firing rate of a single member in a subtle way. PMID:5025748

  7. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  8. Modeling the population dynamics of Gulf Coast sandhill cranes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Kendall, W.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Midcontinental population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has a large geographic range, contains nearly 500,000 birds, and is hunted in much of its range. The population includes three subspecies; the numbers of two of these are uncertain, and they should be afforded protection from hunting that would be detrimental to their population. The two subspecies of concern tend to concentrate in the eastern part of the Great Plains during fall and spring and to winter along the Gulf Coast in Texas. This paper uses the limited information available about the Gulf Coast subpopulation in a model. We included in the model five input parameters: population size, annual survival rate in absence of hunting, the number of birds taken by hunters, the extent of additivity of hunting mortality, and recruitment rate, measured as the fraction of juveniles in the winter population. Using three widely ranging estimates of each parameter, we examined the general behavior of the simulated population. Realistic population projections occurred with medium (60,000) or large (166,000) population sizes, low (2000) or moderate (4000) harvests, and recruitment rates of 0.07 and 0.11. All values of survival in the absence of hunting and additivity of hunting yielded some realistic projections. Results of modelling suggest that the variables warranting closer monitoring are population size and recruitment rate.

  9. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    SciTech Connect

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  10. Can CA-125 Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in Epithelial Ovarian Cancers in Turkish Population?

    PubMed Central

    Köro?lu, Nadiye; Y?ld?r?m, Gökhan; Ülker, Volkan; Gülk?l?k, Ahmet; Dansuk, Ramazan

    2014-01-01

    Objective. The role of single preoperative serum CA-125 levels in predicting pelvic or paraaortic lymph node metastasis in patients operated for epithelial ovarian cancer has been investigated. Methods. 176 patients diagnosed with epithelial ovarian carcinoma after staging laparotomy between January 2002 and May 2010 were evaluated retrospectively. Results. The mean, geometric mean, and median of preoperative serum CA-125 levels were 632,6, 200,29, and 191,5?U/mL, respectively. The cut-off value predicting lymph node metastases in the ROC curve was 71,92?U/mL, which is significant in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.005). The preoperative log CA-125 levels were also statistically significant in predicting lymph node metastasis in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.008). Conclusions. The tumor marker CA-125, which increases with grade independent of the effect of stage in EOC, is predictive of lymph node metastasis with a high rate of false positivity in Turkish population. The high false positive rate may obscure the predictive value of CA-125. PMID:24795494

  11. First Trimester Aneuploidy Screening Program for Preeclampsia Prediction in a Portuguese Obstetric Population

    PubMed Central

    Teixeira, Cláudia; Tejera, Eduardo; Martins, Helena; Pereira, António Tomé; Costa-Pereira, Altamiro; Rebelo, Irene

    2014-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the performance of a first trimester aneuploidy screening program for preeclampsia (PE) prediction in a Portuguese obstetric population, when performed under routine clinical conditions. Materials and Methods. Retrospective cohort study of 5672 pregnant women who underwent routine first trimester aneuploidy screening in a Portuguese university hospital from January 2009 to June 2013. Logistic regression-based predictive models were developed for prediction of PE based on maternal characteristics, crown-rump length (CRL), nuchal translucency thickness (NT), and maternal serum levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free beta-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free ?-hCG). Results. At a false-positive rate of 5/10%, the detection rate for early-onset (EO-PE) and late-onset (LO-PE) PE was 31.4/45.7% and 29.5/35.2%, respectively. Although both forms of PE were associated with decreased PAPP-A, logistic regression analysis revealed significant contributions from maternal factors, free ?-hCG, CRL, and NT, but not PAPP-A, for prediction of PE. Conclusion. Our findings support that both clinical forms of EO-PE and LO-PE can be predicted using a combination of maternal history and biomarkers assessed at first trimester aneuploidy screening. However, detection rates were modest, suggesting that models need to be improved with additional markers not included in the current aneuploidy screening programs. PMID:24991215

  12. Predicted HST FOC and broad band colours for young and intermediate Simple Stellar Populations

    E-print Network

    E. Brocato; V. Castellani; G. Raimondo; M. Romaniello

    1998-12-18

    This paper presents theoretical HST and broad band colours from population synthesis models based on an homogeneous set of stellar evolutionary tracks as computed under canonical (no overshooting) assumptions, covering the range of cluster ages from t=8 Myr to t=5 Gyr for three different metallicities (Z=0.02, 0.006, and 0.001). Statistical fluctuations in the cluster population have been investigated, assessing the predicted fluctuations of the various colours as a function of the cluster integrated absolute magnitude. We show that the red leak in HST UV filters deeply affects the predicted fluxes and colours. However, we find that for F152M-F307M < 0.5 and for F170M-F278M < 0.5 (which means ages lower than 1 Gyr) the HST UV colours can still be used to infer reliable indications on the age of distant clusters. Moreover, one finds that the age calibration of these colours is scarcely affected by the amount of original helium or by the assumed IMF. On this basis, we present a calibration of the HST UV two-colours (F152M-F307M vs F170M-F278M) in terms of cluster ages for the three above quoted metallicities. We suggest the combined use of HST UV colours and IR colours (V-K in particular) to disentangle the metallicity-age effect in integrated colours of young stellar populations (t< 1 Gyr).

  13. Response of microbial community of tundra soil to global warming: Simulation of seasonal and long-term population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Panikov, N.S.

    1994-11-01

    A mathematical model has been constructed and verified to simulate dynamics of a microbial community in typical tundra. The model contains the following state variables: the population densities of three competing microbial species (exemplified by Arthrobacter, Pseudomonas, and Bacillus), indexes of their physiological state, concentration of available organic substrate, plant litter reserves, the amount of microbiovorous protozoans, and temperature. The mathematical model simulates adequately the qualitative features of microbial seasonal dynamics observed in tundra. The global warming and associated increase in primary productivity, as predicted by simulation, will relieve the pressure of L-selection and thus result in stabilization of the tundra microbial community. The model also predicts that aerobic decomposition of dead organic matter in solid will be accelerated compared to its formation. 24 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Accurate Prediction of Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using Stem Cell-Derived Populations

    PubMed Central

    Szkolnicka, Dagmara; Farnworth, Sarah L.; Lucendo-Villarin, Baltasar; Storck, Christopher; Zhou, Wenli; Iredale, John P.; Flint, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Despite major progress in the knowledge and management of human liver injury, there are millions of people suffering from chronic liver disease. Currently, the only cure for end-stage liver disease is orthotopic liver transplantation; however, this approach is severely limited by organ donation. Alternative approaches to restoring liver function have therefore been pursued, including the use of somatic and stem cell populations. Although such approaches are essential in developing scalable treatments, there is also an imperative to develop predictive human systems that more effectively study and/or prevent the onset of liver disease and decompensated organ function. We used a renewable human stem cell resource, from defined genetic backgrounds, and drove them through developmental intermediates to yield highly active, drug-inducible, and predictive human hepatocyte populations. Most importantly, stem cell-derived hepatocytes displayed equivalence to primary adult hepatocytes, following incubation with known hepatotoxins. In summary, we have developed a serum-free, scalable, and shippable cell-based model that faithfully predicts the potential for human liver injury. Such a resource has direct application in human modeling and, in the future, could play an important role in developing renewable cell-based therapies. PMID:24375539

  15. Bottom-up determination of soil collembola diversity and population dynamics in response to interactive climatic factors.

    PubMed

    A'Bear, A Donald; Boddy, Lynne; Jones, T Hefin

    2013-11-01

    Soil invertebrate contributions to decomposition are climate dependent. Understanding the influence of abiotic factors on soil invertebrate population dynamics will strengthen predictions regarding ecosystem functioning under climate change. As well as being important secondary decomposers, mycophagous collembola exert a strong influence on the growth and activity of primary decomposers, particularly fungi. Species-specific grazing preferences for different fungi enable fungal community composition to influence the direct impacts of climate change on collembola populations. We investigate the interactive roles of altered abiotic conditions (warming, wetting and drying) and the identity of the dominant decomposer fungus in determining collembola community dynamics in woodland soil mesocosms. The bottom-up influence of the dominant component of the fungal resource base was an important mediator of the direct climatic impacts on collembola populations. The positive influences of warming and wetting, and the negative influence of drying, on collembola abundance and diversity were much less pronounced in fungal-inoculation treatments, in which populations were reduced compared with uninoculated mesocosms. We conclude that the thick, sclerotised cords of the competitively dominant decomposer fungi reduced the biomass of smaller, more palatable soil fungi, limiting the size of collembola populations and their ability to respond to altered abiotic conditions. PMID:23609802

  16. GEOGRAPHICGRADIENTS IN DIET AFFECT POPULATION DYNAMICS OF CANADA LYNX

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James D. Roth; John D. Marshall; Dennis L. Murray; David M. Nickerson; Todd D. Steury

    2007-01-01

    Geographical gradients in the stability of cyclic populations of herbivores and their predators may relate to the degree of specialization of predators. However, such changes are usually associated with transition from specialist to generalist predator species, rather than from geographical variation in dietary breadth of specialist predators. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) populations undergo cyclic fluctuations

  17. Some Stochastic Versions of the Matrix Model for Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Z. M. Sykes

    1969-01-01

    In an effort to provide probabilistic measures of the accuracy of population projections, stochastic models for population growth are defined from the classical discrete deterministic model by assuming respectively that (1) the deterministic model is subject to additive random errors; (2) the elements of the transition matrix represent probabilities, rather than rates; and (3) the transition matrices are random variables.

  18. Credit or debit? Resource input changes population dynamics of city

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eyal Shochat

    The underlying evolutionary mechanisms of urban bird populations have hardly been studied. High food density and low predation risk serve to explain the global pattern of extremely high urban bird population densities. Both these bottom-up and top-down effects are paradoxical since the per capita amount of food is small due to competition, and domestic predator density is high in cities.

  19. Food-dependent individual growth and population dynamics in fishes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. Persson; Roos de A. M

    2006-01-01

    It is long since well established that growth and development in fish individuals are heavily dependent on food intake. Yet, this dependence of individual development on food levels has only to a limited extent been taken into consideration when studying fish population and community processes. Using the modelling framework of physiologically structured population models and empirical data for a number

  20. General practitioner distribution and population dynamics: Munich, 1950-1990

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gary W. Shannon; Malcolm P. Cutchin

    1994-01-01

    The problem of variable geographic distribution of physicians appears to be universal and intransigent. There is growing evidence from several developed countries of primary physicians avoiding areas in large cities increasingly populated by poor and ethnic minorities. This paper extends the research to Germany. Here, the changing population structure of Munich from 1950 through 1990, characterized by a large influx