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Sample records for predicting population dynamics

  1. Predicting the dynamics of animal behaviour in field populations

    E-print Network

    Cushing, Jim. M.

    Predicting the dynamics of animal behaviour in field populations SHANDELLE M. HENSON*, BRIAN DENNIS in animals and humans. Ó 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR, 2007, 74, 103e110 doi:10.1016/j

  2. Predicting population dynamics with analytical, simulation and supercomputer models

    SciTech Connect

    Onstad, D.W.

    1987-07-01

    A set of epizootiological models describing the influence of a microsporidian disease on the population dynamics of an herbivorous insect demonstrate the similarities and differences between the three major approaches now available for ecological modeling. Simulation modeling allows the incorporation of randomness or the timing of discrete events in the temporal dynamics. More complex models incorporating both temporal and spatial dynamics in variable and heterogeneous environments require the use of supercomputers. Under a number of realistic circumstances, the qualitative predictions of the approaches may differ.

  3. Progress in spatially explicit modeling for predicting tuna population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Hawai'i at Manoa, University of

    biomass ESSIC ­ NCEP ­ ERA40 #12;PAGE 5 © 2008 Connaître aujourd'hui, mieux vivre demain Population age structure: · 1 larvae cohort · 2 juvenile cohort · 4 young (3 ­ 11 months ) ·12 adult cohorts Spatial domain: Pacific ocean 90E-69W; 54S-64N Simulation time period: 1975-2001 Skipjack tuna analysis Complete fishing

  4. Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Juliano, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    This chapter reviews aspects of population dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito populations, primarily because it can lead to compensatory or overcompensatory mortality due to additions of a biological control agent. This can result in control efforts leading to no change in the target population, or actual increases in the target population, respectively. Density dependent effects, and compensatory or overcompensatory mortality, appear to be most common in mosquitoes from container or highly ephemeral habitats. In permanent ground water habitats generalist predators appear to limit mosquito populations and so render mortality additive. Thus, biological control in permanent ground water habitats seems to have the highest likelihood of producing a satisfactory result. A central premise of classical biological control is that pest populations are reduced by enemies to stable equilibrium levels that are both below the pre-control equilibrium level, and well below the level producing detrimental effects. This premise results in predictions that successful biological control is likely to involve specialist enemies (usually parasitoids), with short generation times relative to the victim, high rates of successful search, rapid rates of increase, and needing only a few victims to complete their life cycle. These predictions largely fail for mosquito systems, in which successful biological control seems to be associated with generalist enemies that can kill a large portion of the target population, often causing local extinction, and can persist in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus contrasting sharply with classical biological control. This review suggests a need for better data on density dependent regulation of mosquito populations. PMID:17853611

  5. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Culex pipiens/restuans mosquitoes are important vectors for a variety of arthropod borne viral infections. In this study, the associations between 20 years of mosquito capture data and the time lagged environmental quantities daytime length, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamics of this vector species. Methods Mosquito population in the study area was represented by averaged time series of mosquitos counts captured at 6 sites in Cook County (Illinois, USA). Cross-correlation maps (CCMs) were compiled to investigate the association between mosquito abundances and environmental quantities. The results obtained from the CCMs were incorporated into a Poisson regression to generate a predictive model. To optimize the predictive model the time lags obtained from the CCMs were adjusted using a genetic algorithm. Results CCMs for weekly data showed a highly positive correlation of mosquito abundances with daytime length 4 to 5 weeks prior to capture (quantified by a Spearman rank order correlation of rS?=?0.898) and with temperature during 2 weeks prior to capture (rS?=?0.870). Maximal negative correlations were found for wind speed averaged over 3 week prior to capture (rS?=??0.621). Cx. pipiens/restuans population dynamics was predicted by integrating the CCM results in Poisson regression models. They were used to simulate the average seasonal cycle of the mosquito abundance. Verification with observations resulted in a correlation of rS?=?0.899 for daily and rS?=?0.917 for weekly data. Applying the optimized models to the entire 20-years time series also resulted in a suitable fit with rS?=?0.876 for daily and rS?=?0.899 for weekly data. Conclusions The study demonstrates the application of interval lagged weather data to predict mosquito abundances with a feasible accuracy, especially when related to weekly Cx. pipiens/restuans populations. PMID:23634763

  7. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  8. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities

    PubMed Central

    Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

    2015-01-01

    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated ‘fitness contours’ (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments. PMID:26190870

  9. Predicting Population Curves.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bunton, Matt

    2003-01-01

    Uses graphs to involve students in inquiry-based population investigations on the Wisconsin gray wolf. Requires students to predict future changes in the wolf population, carrying capacity, and deer population. (YDS)

  10. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF EXTRAPOLATION POPULATION MODELING TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA POPULATIONS IN THE LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    An age-classified projection matrix model has been developed to extrapolate the chronic (28-35d) demographic responses of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) to population-level response. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this model for predicting t...

  11. Climate-Based Models for Pulsed Resources Improve Predictability of Consumer Population Dynamics: Outbreaks of House Mice in Forest Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Holland, E. Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A.; Pech, Roger P.; Byrom, Andrea E.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (?T) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer–resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ?T method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ?T on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year’s advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer–resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events. PMID:25785866

  12. A population model capturing dynamics of tuberculosis granulomas predicts host infection outcomes.

    PubMed

    Gong, Chang; Linderman, Jennifer J; Kirschner, Denise

    2015-06-01

    Granulomas play a centric role in tuberculosis (TB) infection progression. Multiple granulomas usually develop within a single host. These granulomas are not synchronized in size or bacteria load, and will follow different trajectories over time. How the fate of individual granulomas influence overall infection outcome at host scale is not understood, although computational models have been developed to predict single granuloma behavior. Here we present a within-host population model that tracks granulomas in two key organs during Mycobacteria tuberculosis (Mtb) infection: lung and lymph nodes (LN). We capture various time courses of TB progression, including latency and reactivation. The model predicts that there is no steady state; rather it is a continuous process of progressing to active disease over differing time periods. This is consistent with recently posed ideas suggesting that latent TB exists as a spectrum of states and not a single state. The model also predicts a dual role for granuloma development in LNs during Mtb infection: in early phases of infection granulomas suppress infection by providing additional antigens to the site of immune priming; however, this induces a more rapid reactivation at later stages by disrupting immune responses. We identify mechanisms that strongly correlate with better host-level outcomes, including elimination of uncontained lung granulomas by inducing low levels of lung tissue damage and inhibition of bacteria dissemination within the lung. PMID:25811559

  13. A generic weather-driven model to predict mosquito population dynamics applied to species of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes genera of southern France.

    PubMed

    Ezanno, P; Aubry-Kientz, M; Arnoux, S; Cailly, P; L'Ambert, G; Toty, C; Balenghien, T; Tran, A

    2015-06-01

    An accurate understanding and prediction of mosquito population dynamics are needed to identify areas where there is a high risk of mosquito-borne disease spread and persistence. Simulation tools are relevant for supporting decision-makers in the surveillance of vector populations, as models of vector population dynamics provide predictions of the greatest risk periods for vector abundance, which can be particularly helpful in areas with a highly variable environment. We present a generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics, which was applied to one species of each of the genera Anopheles, Culex, and Aedes, located in the same area and thus affected by similar weather conditions. The predicted population dynamics of Anopheles hyrcanus, Culex pipiens, and Aedes caspius were not similar. An. hyrcanus was abundant in late summer. Cx. pipiens was less abundant but throughout the summer. The abundance of both species showed a single large peak with few variations between years. The population dynamics of Ae. caspius showed large intra- and inter-annual variations due to pulsed egg hatching. Predictions of the model were compared to longitudinal data on host-seeking adult females. Data were previously obtained using CDC-light traps baited with carbon dioxide dry ice in 2005 at two sites (Marais du Viguerat and Tour Carbonnière) in a favourable temperate wetland of southern France (Camargue). The observed and predicted periods of maximal abundance for An. hyrcanus and Cx. pipiens tallied very well. Pearson's coefficients for these two species were over 75% for both species. The model also reproduced the major trends in the intra-annual fluctuations of Ae. caspius population dynamics, with peaks occurring in early summer and following the autumn rainfall events. Few individuals of this species were trapped so the comparison of predicted and observed dynamics was not relevant. A global sensitivity analysis of the species-specific models enabled us to identify the parameters most influencing the maximal abundance of mosquitoes. These key parameters were almost similar between species, but not with the same contributions. The emergence of adult mosquitoes was identified as a key process in the population dynamics of all of the three species considered here. Parameters associated with adult emergence therefore need to be precisely known to achieve accurate predictions. Our model is a flexible and efficient tool that predicts mosquito abundance based on local environmental factors. It is useful to and already used by a mosquito surveillance manager in France. PMID:25623972

  14. Population Dynamics of an Insect Herbivore over 32 Years are Driven by Precipitation and Host-Plant Effects: Testing Model Predictions.

    PubMed

    Price, Peter W; Hunter, Mark D

    2015-06-01

    The interaction between the arroyo willow, Salix lasiolepis Bentham, and its specialist herbivore, the arroyo willow stem-galling sawfly, Euura lasiolepis Smith (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae), was studied for 32?yr in Flagstaff, AZ, emphasizing a mechanistic understanding of insect population dynamics. Long-term weather records were evaluated to provide a climatic context for this study. Previously, predictive models of sawfly dynamics were developed from estimates of sawfly gall density made between 1981 and 2002; one model each for drier and wetter sites. Predictor variables in these models included winter precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which impact the willow growth, with strong bottom-up effects on sawflies. We now evaluate original model predictions of sawfly population dynamics using new data (from 2003-2012). Additionally, willow resources were evaluated in 1986 and in 2012, using as criteria clone area, shoot density, and shoot length. The dry site model accounted for 40% of gall population density variation between 2003 and 2012 (69% over the 32?yr), providing strong support for the bottom-up, mechanistic hypothesis that water supply to willow hosts impacts sawfly populations. The current drying trend stressed willow clones: in drier sites, willow resources declined and gall density decreased by 98%. The wet site model accounted for 23% of variation in gall population density between 2003 and 2012 (48% over 30?yr), consistent with less water limitation. Nonetheless, gall populations were reduced by 72%. PMID:26313951

  15. A spatiotemporal model for predicting grain aphid population dynamics and optimizing insecticide sprays at the scale of continental France.

    PubMed

    Ciss, Mamadou; Parisey, Nicolas; Moreau, Fabrice; Dedryver, Charles-Antoine; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien

    2014-04-01

    We expose here a detailed spatially explicit model of aphid population dynamics at the scale of a whole country (Metropolitan France). It is based on convection-diffusion-reaction equations, driven by abiotic and biotic factors. The target species is the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae F., considering both its winged and apterous morphs. In this preliminary work, simulations for year 2004 (an outbreak case) produced realistic aphid densities, and showed that both spatial and temporal S. avenae population dynamics can be represented as an irregular wave of population peak densities from southwest to northeast of the country, driven by gradients or differences in temperature, wheat phenology, and wheat surfaces. This wave pattern fits well to our knowledge of S. avenae phenology. The effects of three insecticide spray regimes were simulated in five different sites and showed that insecticide sprays were ineffective in terms of yield increase after wheat flowering. After suitable validation, which will require some further years of observations, the model will be used to forecast aphid densities in real time at any date or growth stage of the crop anywhere in the country. It will be the backbone of a decision support system, forecasting yield losses at the level of a field. The model intends then to complete the punctual forecasting provided by older models by a comprehensive spatial view on a large area and leads to the diminution of insecticide sprayings in wheat crops. PMID:24271722

  16. Coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics in experimental microbial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2012-02-01

    It has been often been assumed that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics occur at such different timescales that they are effectively de-coupled. This view has been challenged recently, due to observations of evolutionary changes occurring in short timescales. This has led to a growing interest in understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations. In this context, recent theoretical models have predicted that coupling between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics can have important effects for the evolution and stability of cooperation, and lead to extremely rich and varied dynamics. Here, we report our investigation of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a cooperative social behavior, sucrose metabolism, in experimental yeast populations. We have devised an experimental strategy to visualize trajectories in the phase space formed by the population size (N) and the fraction of cooperator cells in the population (f). Our measurements confirm a strong coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics, and allowed us to characterize the bifurcation plots. We used this approach to investigate how sudden environmental changes affect the stability and recovery of populations, and therefore the stability of cooperation.

  17. Perturbation Theory for Population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Francisco M. Fernandez

    2007-12-20

    We prove that a recently proposed homotopy perturbation method for the treatment of population dynamics is just the Taylor expansion of the population variables about initial time. Our results show that this perturbation method fails to provide the global features of the ecosystem dynamics.

  18. Discrete population dynamics in flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Benzi, Roberto; Biferale, Luca; Clercx, Herman; Pigolotti, Simone; Jensen, Mogens; Nelson, David; Toschi, Federico

    2012-11-01

    Bacteria and plankton populations living in oceans and lakes reproduce and die under the influence of turbulent currents. Fluid transport interacts in a complex way with the dynamics of populations because the typical reproduction time of microorganism is comparable with the time scale of the flows. We review recent results on the population dynamics for off-lattice models. We then investigate the role of chaotic/turbulent flows on the dynamic of populations. The populations are modeled as discrete entities (particles) that reproduce, die, and compete with each other. Furthermore, to mimic various seggregation mechanisms like gyrotaxis, chemotaxis, and/or food variability we associate an inertia with the entities. We show that the presence of advecting flows with same ``inertial'' entities leads to a dramatic reduction in the population sizes and fixation times. We also discuss the interesting case of species with slightly different inertial properties where a long coexistence of species is possible. We thank FOM for financial support.

  19. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  20. Development of a predictive model for the growth kinetics of aerobic microbial population on pomegranate marinated chicken breast fillets under isothermal and dynamic temperature conditions.

    PubMed

    Lytou, Anastasia; Panagou, Efstathios Z; Nychas, George-John E

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was the development of a model to describe the growth kinetics of aerobic microbial population of chicken breast fillets marinated in pomegranate juice under isothermal and dynamic temperature conditions. Moreover, the effect of pomegranate juice on the extension of the shelf life of the product was investigated. Samples (10 g) of chicken breast fillets were immersed in marinades containing pomegranate juice for 3 h at 4 °C following storage under aerobic conditions at 4, 10, and 15 °C for 10 days. Total Viable Counts (TVC), Pseudomonas spp and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) were enumerated, in parallel with sensory assessment (odor and overall appearance) of marinated and non-marinated samples. The Baranyi model was fitted to the growth data of TVC to calculate the maximum specific growth rate (?max) that was further modeled as a function of temperature using a square root-type model. The validation of the model was conducted under dynamic temperature conditions based on two fluctuating temperature scenarios with periodic changes from 6 to 13 °C. The shelf life was determined both mathematically and with sensory assessment and its temperature dependence was modeled by an Arrhenius type equation. Results showed that the ?max of TVC of marinated samples was significantly lower compared to control samples regardless temperature, while under dynamic temperature conditions the model satisfactorily predicted the growth of TVC in both control and marinated samples. The shelf-life of marinated samples was significantly extended compared to the control (5 days extension at 4 °C). The calculated activation energies (Ea), 82 and 52 kJ/mol for control and marinated samples, respectively, indicated higher temperature dependence of the shelf life of control samples compared to marinated ones. The present results indicated that pomegranate juice could be used as an alternative ingredient in marinades to prolong the shelf life of chicken. PMID:26742613

  1. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  2. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  3. Predicting protein dynamics from structural ensembles

    E-print Network

    Copperman, J

    2015-01-01

    The biological properties of proteins are uniquely determined by their structure and dynamics. A protein in solution populates a structural ensemble of metastable configurations around the global fold. From overall rotation to local fluctuations, the dynamics of proteins can cover several orders of magnitude in time scales. We propose a simulation-free coarse-grained approach which utilizes knowledge of the important metastable folded states of the protein to predict the protein dynamics. This approach is based upon the Langevin Equation for Protein Dynamics (LE4PD), a Langevin formalism in the coordinates of the protein backbone. The linear modes of this Langevin formalism organize the fluctuations of the protein, so that more extended dynamical cooperativity relates to increasing energy barriers to mode diffusion. The accuracy of the LE4PD is verified by analyzing the predicted dynamics across a set of seven different proteins for which both relaxation data and NMR solution structures are available. Using e...

  4. Population dynamics in compressible flows

    E-print Network

    Roberto Benzi; Mogens H. Jensen; David R. Nelson; Prasad Perlekar; Simone Pigolotti; Federico Toschi

    2012-03-28

    Organisms often grow, migrate and compete in liquid environments, as well as on solid surfaces. However, relatively little is known about what happens when competing species are mixed and compressed by fluid turbulence. In these lectures we review our recent work on population dynamics and population genetics in compressible velocity fields of one and two dimensions. We discuss why compressible turbulence is relevant for population dynamics in the ocean and we consider cases both where the velocity field is turbulent and when it is static. Furthermore, we investigate populations in terms of a continuos density field and when the populations are treated via discrete particles. In the last case we focus on the competition and fixation of one species compared to another

  5. Predicting protein dynamics from structural ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Copperman, J.; Guenza, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    The biological properties of proteins are uniquely determined by their structure and dynamics. A protein in solution populates a structural ensemble of metastable configurations around the global fold. From overall rotation to local fluctuations, the dynamics of proteins can cover several orders of magnitude in time scales. We propose a simulation-free coarse-grained approach which utilizes knowledge of the important metastable folded states of the protein to predict the protein dynamics. This approach is based upon the Langevin Equation for Protein Dynamics (LE4PD), a Langevin formalism in the coordinates of the protein backbone. The linear modes of this Langevin formalism organize the fluctuations of the protein, so that more extended dynamical cooperativity relates to increasing energy barriers to mode diffusion. The accuracy of the LE4PD is verified by analyzing the predicted dynamics across a set of seven different proteins for which both relaxation data and NMR solution structures are available. Using experimental NMR conformers as the input structural ensembles, LE4PD predicts quantitatively accurate results, with correlation coefficient ? = 0.93 to NMR backbone relaxation measurements for the seven proteins. The NMR solution structure derived ensemble and predicted dynamical relaxation is compared with molecular dynamics simulation-derived structural ensembles and LE4PD predictions and is consistent in the time scale of the simulations. The use of the experimental NMR conformers frees the approach from computationally demanding simulations.

  6. Predicting protein dynamics from structural ensembles.

    PubMed

    Copperman, J; Guenza, M G

    2015-12-28

    The biological properties of proteins are uniquely determined by their structure and dynamics. A protein in solution populates a structural ensemble of metastable configurations around the global fold. From overall rotation to local fluctuations, the dynamics of proteins can cover several orders of magnitude in time scales. We propose a simulation-free coarse-grained approach which utilizes knowledge of the important metastable folded states of the protein to predict the protein dynamics. This approach is based upon the Langevin Equation for Protein Dynamics (LE4PD), a Langevin formalism in the coordinates of the protein backbone. The linear modes of this Langevin formalism organize the fluctuations of the protein, so that more extended dynamical cooperativity relates to increasing energy barriers to mode diffusion. The accuracy of the LE4PD is verified by analyzing the predicted dynamics across a set of seven different proteins for which both relaxation data and NMR solution structures are available. Using experimental NMR conformers as the input structural ensembles, LE4PD predicts quantitatively accurate results, with correlation coefficient ? = 0.93 to NMR backbone relaxation measurements for the seven proteins. The NMR solution structure derived ensemble and predicted dynamical relaxation is compared with molecular dynamics simulation-derived structural ensembles and LE4PD predictions and is consistent in the time scale of the simulations. The use of the experimental NMR conformers frees the approach from computationally demanding simulations. PMID:26723616

  7. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS Steven A. Juliano

    E-print Network

    Juliano, Steven A.

    dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus

  9. Research Article Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    Research Article Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain Goat Herds in Alberta SANDRA predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear and reproduction from a marked mountain goat population in Alberta, Canada, we built a stage-class matrix model

  10. Population size predicts technological complexity in Oceania

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Michelle A.; Boyd, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. PMID:20392733

  11. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici epopovic of understanding how the fitness distribution of an EA population changes over time. 1 Introduction and Background Although a sense of the importance of population fitness distributions is deeply ingrained

  12. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  13. Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon

    E-print Network

    Kang, In-Sik

    15 Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon In-Sik Kang and Jagadish Shukla and the limitations and challenges in dynamical seasonal prediction of monsoon rainfall. We also present an assessment of multi- model seasonal predictability of summer mean precipitation over the Asian monsoon±western Paci

  14. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  15. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  16. Population Dynamics: Rate of Change in Population Size Track Population Size over Time

    E-print Network

    Caraco, Thomas

    .5) N2.5 = 180 e - 2 N2.5 = 24.36 24 #12;3 Exponential Growth Population dynamics Density generation, large mass #12;5 USFWS Geometric Growth Discrete time: t, (t + 1), (t + 2), ... Nt Population1 Population Dynamics: Rate of Change in Population Size Track Population Size over Time Mark

  17. Aphid population dynamics: does resistance to parasitism inuence population size?

    E-print Network

    Hufbauer, Ruth A.

    Aphid population dynamics: does resistance to parasitism in¯uence population size? R . A . H U F B and extrinsic factors can interact in their effects on population size. 2. Pea aphids Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris pea aphids specialised on clover. To assess the potential in¯uence of this genetically based

  18. Predicting stochastic gene expression dynamics in single cells.

    PubMed

    Mettetal, Jerome T; Muzzey, Dale; Pedraza, Juan M; Ozbudak, Ertugrul M; van Oudenaarden, Alexander

    2006-05-01

    Fluctuations in protein numbers (noise) due to inherent stochastic effects in single cells can have large effects on the dynamic behavior of gene regulatory networks. Although deterministic models can predict the average network behavior, they fail to incorporate the stochasticity characteristic of gene expression, thereby limiting their relevance when single cell behaviors deviate from the population average. Recently, stochastic models have been used to predict distributions of steady-state protein levels within a population but not to predict the dynamic, presteady-state distributions. In the present work, we experimentally examine a system whose dynamics are heavily influenced by stochastic effects. We measure population distributions of protein numbers as a function of time in the Escherichia coli lactose uptake network (lac operon). We then introduce a dynamic stochastic model and show that prediction of dynamic distributions requires only a few noise parameters in addition to the rates that characterize a deterministic model. Whereas the deterministic model cannot fully capture the observed behavior, our stochastic model correctly predicts the experimental dynamics without any fit parameters. Our results provide a proof of principle for the possibility of faithfully predicting dynamic population distributions from deterministic models supplemented by a stochastic component that captures the major noise sources. PMID:16648266

  19. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  20. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    E-print Network

    Prasad Perlekar; Roberto Benzi; David R. Nelson; Federico Toschi

    2010-09-03

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying capacity. The statistical properties of the population density are investigated and quantified via multifractal scaling analysis. We also investigate numerically the singular limit of negligibly small growth rates and delocalization of population ridges triggered by uniform advection.

  1. Predictive Bayesian inference and dynamic treatment regimes.

    PubMed

    Saarela, Olli; Arjas, Elja; Stephens, David A; Moodie, Erica E M

    2015-11-01

    While optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) can be estimated without specification of a predictive model, a model-based approach, combined with dynamic programming and Monte Carlo integration, enables direct probabilistic comparisons between the outcomes under the optimal DTR and alternative (dynamic or static) treatment regimes. The Bayesian predictive approach also circumvents problems related to frequentist estimators under the nonregular estimation problem. However, the model-based approach is susceptible to misspecification, in particular of the "null-paradox" type, which is due to the model parameters not having a direct causal interpretation in the presence of latent individual-level characteristics. Because it is reasonable to insist on correct inferences under the null of no difference between the alternative treatment regimes, we discuss how to achieve this through a "null-robust" reparametrization of the problem in a longitudinal setting. Since we argue that causal inference can be entirely understood as posterior predictive inference in a hypothetical population without covariate imbalances, we also discuss how controlling for confounding through inverse probability of treatment weighting can be justified and incorporated in the Bayesian setting. PMID:26259996

  2. B659 Project Report TIGER POPULATION GROWTH PREDICTION

    E-print Network

    Connelly, Kay

    B659 Project Report TIGER POPULATION GROWTH PREDICTION -Tasneem Alowaisheq and Devendra Singh Dhami 1. Abstract The purpose of this project is to predict the change in the population of the tigers Learning algorithms for the task of predicting the change in the Tiger population whether positive

  3. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    PubMed Central

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  4. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  5. Population Dynamics Algebra 5/Trig

    E-print Network

    Lega, Joceline

    equations, population growth can be modeled by a function of the form P(t) = KP0ert K + P0(ert - 1) where t is time, P(t) the population at time t, P0 the population at time t = 0, r the growth rate, and K for population growth. 3. This function can be rewritten as: P(t) = KP0 (K - P0)e-rt + P0 . If you are feeling

  6. Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation

    E-print Network

    Hauert, Christoph

    Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation in public goods games, cooperation should decrease and vanish, as predicted by classical models for cooperation in evolutionary game theory, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma and public goods games. Traditional approaches to studying

  7. Effects of virus on plant fecundity and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Prendeville, Holly R; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Pilson, Diana

    2014-06-01

    Microorganisms are ubiquitous and thought to regulate host populations. Although microorganisms can be pathogenic and affect components of fitness, few studies have examined their effects on wild plant populations. As individual traits might not contribute equally to changes in population growth rate, it is essential to examine the entire life cycle to determine how microorganisms affect host population dynamics. In this study, we used data from common garden experiments with plants from three Cucurbita pepo populations exposed to three virus treatments. These data were used to parameterize a deterministic matrix model, which allowed us to estimate the effect of virus on components of fitness and population growth rate. Virus did not reduce fruit number, but population growth rates varied among virus treatments and wild C. pepo populations. The effect of virus on population growth rate depended on virus species and wild C. pepo population. Contributions of life-history transitions and life-history traits to population growth rates varied among populations and virus treatments. However, this population-virus interaction was not evident when examining individual components of fitness. Thus, caution must be used when interpreting the effects of changes in individual traits, as single traits do not always predict population-level change accurately. PMID:24571200

  8. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  9. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici and Kenneth De Jong population fitness distribution rather than just "best-so-far" curves. But characterizing how repeated fitness landscapes. Our approach is to study empirically derived fitness distributions, both qual

  10. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    E-print Network

    Antal, Tibor

    . Life unfolds according to the mathematical laws of evolution. Constant selection means that the fitness values of individuals are constant and do not depend on the composition of the population. Frequency, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well

  12. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations. PMID:25026455

  13. Pathwise thermodynamic structure in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sughiyama, Yuki; Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Tsumura, Koji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-03-01

    We reveal thermodynamic structure in population dynamics with phenotype switching. Mean fitness for a population of organisms is determined by a thermodynamic variational principle described by the large deviation of phenotype-switching dynamics. Owing to this variational principle, a response relation of the mean fitness with respect to changes of environments and phenotype-switching dynamics is represented as a thermodynamic differential form. Furthermore, we discuss the strength of the selection by using the difference between time-forward and time-backward (retrospective) processes.

  14. Efficient Mechanisms with Dynamic Populations and Dynamic Types

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yiling

    equivalent upon arrival to the online-VCG mecha- nism [Parkes and Singh, 2003], serving to unify two to a shifting population of online advertisers. In designing incentive compatible mecha- nisms for dynamic

  15. Predictive information in a sensory population

    PubMed Central

    Marre, Olivier; Berry, Michael J.; Bialek, William

    2015-01-01

    Guiding behavior requires the brain to make predictions about the future values of sensory inputs. Here, we show that efficient predictive computation starts at the earliest stages of the visual system. We compute how much information groups of retinal ganglion cells carry about the future state of their visual inputs and show that nearly every cell in the retina participates in a group of cells for which this predictive information is close to the physical limit set by the statistical structure of the inputs themselves. Groups of cells in the retina carry information about the future state of their own activity, and we show that this information can be compressed further and encoded by downstream predictor neurons that exhibit feature selectivity that would support predictive computations. Efficient representation of predictive information is a candidate principle that can be applied at each stage of neural computation. PMID:26038544

  16. Predictive information in a sensory population.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Stephanie E; Marre, Olivier; Berry, Michael J; Bialek, William

    2015-06-01

    Guiding behavior requires the brain to make predictions about the future values of sensory inputs. Here, we show that efficient predictive computation starts at the earliest stages of the visual system. We compute how much information groups of retinal ganglion cells carry about the future state of their visual inputs and show that nearly every cell in the retina participates in a group of cells for which this predictive information is close to the physical limit set by the statistical structure of the inputs themselves. Groups of cells in the retina carry information about the future state of their own activity, and we show that this information can be compressed further and encoded by downstream predictor neurons that exhibit feature selectivity that would support predictive computations. Efficient representation of predictive information is a candidate principle that can be applied at each stage of neural computation. PMID:26038544

  17. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    E-print Network

    Bradde, Serena; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a "winner-take-all" scenario, leading to a specialized spacer ...

  18. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  19. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations. PMID:17913126

  20. Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

    2001-03-01

    We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

  1. Merging Taxonomy with Ecological Population Prediction in a Case Study of Vibrionaceae ? †

    PubMed Central

    Preheim, Sarah P.; Timberlake, Sonia; Polz, Martin F.

    2011-01-01

    We synthesized population structure data from three studies that assessed the fine-scale distribution of Vibrionaceae among temporally and spatially distinct environmental categories in coastal seawater and animals. All studies used a dynamic model (AdaptML) to identify phylogenetically cohesive and ecologically distinct bacterial populations and their predicted habitats without relying on a predefined genetic cutoff or relationships to previously named species. Across the three studies, populations were highly overlapping, displaying similar phylogenetic characteristics (identity and diversity), and were predominantly congruent with taxonomic Vibrio species previously characterized as genotypic clusters by multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA). The environmental fidelity of these populations appears high, with 9 out of 12 reproducibly associating with the same predicted (micro)habitats when similar environmental categories were sampled. Overall, this meta-analysis provides information on the habitat predictability and structure of previously described species, demonstrating that MLSA-based taxonomy can, at least in some cases, serve to approximate ecologically cohesive populations. PMID:21873482

  2. Creole Viewed from Population Dynamics Makoto Nakamura*

    E-print Network

    Nakamura, Makoto

    Creole Viewed from Population Dynamics Makoto Nakamura* , Takashi Hashimoto and Satoshi Tojo Graduate School of { Information, Knowledge} Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1 Asahidai, Tatsunokuchi-machi, Nomi-gun, Ishikawa, 923-1292, Japan Abstract Creole is one

  3. Corrigendum Evolutionary games and population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Hauert, Christoph

    Corrigendum Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation in public goods games The analysis of our model for the maintenance of cooperation in public goods games based possible if the interior fixed point Q exists. For small multiplication factors r, an additional

  4. Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) Population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Fabrizio, Mary C.

    Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) Population Dynamics Delineated by Organochlorine Tracers R bluefin tuna (ABFT) are highly valued and heavily exploited, and critical uncertainties regarding. Hereweshowthatorganochlorinepesticidesandpolychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can be used as tracers of bluefin tuna foraging grounds in the North Atlantic

  5. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W., Sr.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  6. Circuit theory predicts gene flow in plant and animal populations

    E-print Network

    Beier, Paul

    Circuit theory predicts gene flow in plant and animal populations Brad H. McRae* and Paul Beier an ecological connectivity model that overcomes this obstacle by borrowing from electrical circuit theory in structuring populations than previously thought. Circuit theory now provides the best-justified method

  7. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  8. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    PubMed

    Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

    2015-11-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  9. Prediction of HAMR Debris Population Distribution Released from GEO Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosengren, A.; Scheeres, D.

    2012-09-01

    The high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) debris population is thought to have origins in the GEO region. Many of these objects are uncharacterized with apparent area-to-mass ratios of up to 30 meters squared per kilogram. The orbits of HAMR objects are highly perturbed due to the combined effect of solar radiation pressure (SRP), anomalies of the Earth gravitational field, and third-body gravitational interactions induced by the Sun and the Moon. A sound understanding of their nature, orbital evolution, and possible origin is critical for space situational awareness. The study of the orbital evolution of HAMR objects, taking into account both short-period and long-period terms, requires numerical integration of the precise set of differential equations, and the investigation of a broad range of possible parameter values. However, such computations become very costly when continuously applied over a period of several decades, as is necessary in the case of HAMR debris. It therefore seems reasonable to investigate the equations that govern the long-term behavior of orbits; such equations can be derived by the method of averaging. We have validated a semi-analytical averaged theory of HAMR object orbit evolution against high precision numerical integrations, and are able to capture the extreme dynamical behaviors reported for these objects. This new averaged model, explicitly given in terms of the eccentricity and angular momentum vectors, is several hundred times faster to numerically integrate than the non-averaged Newtonian counterpart, and provides a very accurate description of the long-term behavior. Using this model, it is possible to make predictions of how a population of HAMR objects, released into GEO orbit, will evolve over time. Our earlier analyses revealed that the population would have a range of orbits much different than circular GEO. Their orbits will suffer a sub-yearly oscillation in the eccentricity and inclination evolutions, and a longer-term drift in inclination. When the nodal rate of the system is commensurate with the nodal rate of the Moon, the perturbations build up more effectively over long periods to produce significant effects on the orbit. Such resonances, which occurs for a class of HAMR objects that are not cleared out of orbit, gives rise to strongly changing dynamics over longer time periods. In this paper, we present the averaged model, and discuss its fundamental predictions and comparisons with explicit long-term numerical integrations of HAMR objects in GEO space. Using this tool, we study a range of HAMR objects, released in geostationary orbit, with various area-to-mass ratios, and predict the spatiotemporal distribution of the population. We identified a unique systematic structure associated with their distribution in inclination and ascending node phase space. Given that HAMR objects are the most difficult to target from an observational point of view, this work will have many implications for the space surveillance community, and will allow observers to implement better search strategies for this class of debris.

  10. Steady state thermodynamics in population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Sughiyama, Yuki

    2015-01-01

    We report that population dynamics in fluctuating environment accompanies mathematically equivalent structure to steady state thermodynamics. By employing the structure, population growth in fluctuating environment is decomposed into housekeeping and excess parts. The housekeeping part represents the integral of stationary growth rate for each condition during a history of the environmental change. The excess part accounts for the excess growth generated when environment is switched. Focusing on the excess growth, we obtain Clausius inequality, which gives the upper bound of the excess growth. The equality is shown to be achieved in quasistatic environmental changes. We also clarify that this bound can be evaluated by "lineage fitness" that is an experimentally observable quantity.

  11. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  12. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    E-print Network

    Sanchez, Alvaro

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At ...

  13. [Asymptotic solutions of population dynamic equations].

    PubMed

    Rustamov, N A

    2000-01-01

    An approach is offered to construct the asymptomatics of the solutions on the small parameter in the close neighborhood of the equilibrium condition of the well-known Volterra-Lotka "prey-predator" system and one of its modifications which takes into account the intraspecies competition of preys and limitation of food resources of a predator. On the basis of the formulas obtained, possible dynamic modes of the size of populations of both kinds are analyzed. PMID:11040980

  14. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages. PMID:25348048

  15. Linking Dynamical and Population Genetic Models of Persistent Viral Infection

    E-print Network

    Kelly, John K.; Williamson, Scott; Orive, Maria E.; Smith, Marilyn S.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-07-01

    This article develops a theoretical framework to link dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection. This linkage is useful because, while the dynamical and population genetic theories have developed independently...

  16. Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bódai, Tamás

    2015-12-01

    In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events-the cornerstone also for the categoric (as opposed to probabilistic) prediction of threshold exceedances-is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined systems suggest that exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable; or in other words: rare large magnitude, i.e., extreme, events are more predictable than frequent typical events. We find this to hold provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise. This can be viewed as a confirmation of a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement that was previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes. However, we argue that for dynamical systems in general it may be typical only, but not universally true. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of a class of data-driven categoric predictions of threshold exceedances approximates the skill of the analogous model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors. Therefore, stronger extremes in terms of higher threshold levels are more predictable both in case of data- and model-driven prediction. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based measure of prediction skill when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability, it does that in a nontrivial manner.

  17. Population dynamics a source of diversity Zdenek Pospisil

    E-print Network

    Pospí?il, Zdenek

    Population dynamics ­ a source of diversity Zdenek Posp´isil Masaryk University, Faculty of science;Introduction General theory of population dynamics Models with discrete time Models with continuous time Population dynamics ­ 2 / 18 #12;Introduction Introduction A bit of history Sources, textbooks Software

  18. Predicting population-level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals.

    PubMed

    MacLeod, Colin D; MacLeod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, Graham J

    2014-07-01

    Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning that there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose that population predator risk effects can be predicted through an extension of individual risk trade-off theory and show for the first time that this is the case in a wild vertebrate system. Specifically, we demonstrate that the timing (in specific months of the year), occurrence (at low food availability), cause (reduction in individual energy reserves), and type (starvation mortality) of a population-level predator risk effect can be successfully predicted from individual responses using a widely applicable theoretical framework (individual-based risk trade-off theory). Our results suggest that individual-based risk trade-off frameworks could allow a wide range of population-level predator risk effects to be predicted from existing ecological theory, which would enable risk effects to be more routinely integrated into consideration of population processes and in applied situations such as conservation. PMID:25163131

  19. API Requirements for Dynamic Graph Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Gallagher, B; Eliassi-Rad, T

    2006-10-13

    Given a large-scale time-evolving multi-modal and multi-relational complex network (a.k.a., a large-scale dynamic semantic graph), we want to implement algorithms that discover patterns of activities on the graph and learn predictive models of those discovered patterns. This document outlines the application programming interface (API) requirements for fast prototyping of feature extraction, learning, and prediction algorithms on large dynamic semantic graphs. Since our algorithms must operate on large-scale dynamic semantic graphs, we have chosen to use the graph API developed in the CASC Complex Networks Project. This API is supported on the back end by a semantic graph database (developed by Scott Kohn and his team). The advantages of using this API are (i) we have full-control of its development and (ii) the current API meets almost all of the requirements outlined in this document.

  20. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  1. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

  2. Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems

    E-print Network

    Tamas Bodai

    2015-09-07

    In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as opposed to probabilistic) prediction of threshold exceedences -- is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined systems suggest that exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable; or in other words: rare large magnitude, i.e., extreme, events are more predictable than frequent typical events. We find this to hold provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise. This can be viewed as a confirmation of a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement that was previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes. However, we argue that for dynamical systems in general it may be typical only, but not universally true. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of a class of data-driven categoric predictions of threshold exceedences approximates the skill of the analogous model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based measure of prediction skill when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability, it does that in a nontrivial manner.

  3. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  4. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

  5. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  6. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  7. Synconset Waves and Chains: Spiking Onsets in Synchronous Populations Predict and Are Predicted by

    E-print Network

    Narayanan, Rishikesh

    Synconset Waves and Chains: Spiking Onsets in Synchronous Populations Predict and Are Predicted Synfire waves are propagating spike packets in synfire chains, which are feedforward chains embedded in random networks. Although synfire waves have proved to be effective quantification for network activity

  8. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  9. The island syndrome and population dynamics of introduced rats.

    PubMed

    Russell, James C; Ringler, David; Trombini, Aurélien; Le Corre, Matthieu

    2011-11-01

    The island syndrome predicts directional changes in the morphology and demography of insular vertebrates, due to changes in trophic complexity and migration rates caused by island size and isolation. However, the high rate of human-mediated species introductions to some islands also increases trophic complexity, and this will reduce the perceived insularity on any such island. We test four hypotheses on the role of increased trophic complexity on the island syndrome, using introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) on two isolated coral atolls in the Mozambique Channel. Europa Island has remained relatively pristine and insular, with few species introductions, whereas Juan de Nova Island has had many species introductions, including predators and competitors of rats, anthropogenically increasing its trophic complexity. In the most insular environments, the island syndrome is expected to generate increases in body size and densities of rodents but decreases in the rates of reproduction and population cycling. Morphology and reproduction were compared using linear regression and canonical discriminant analysis, while density and population cycling were compared using spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis. Results were compared to other insular black rat populations in the Mozambique Channel and were consistent with predictions from the island syndrome. The manifestation of an island syndrome in rodents depends upon the trophic composition of a community, and may not relate to island size alone when many species additions, such as invasions, have occurred. The differing patterns of rodent population dynamics on each island provide information for future rodent eradication operations. PMID:21643994

  10. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  11. Application of optimal prediction to molecular dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Barber IV, John Letherman

    2004-12-01

    Optimal prediction is a general system reduction technique for large sets of differential equations. In this method, which was devised by Chorin, Hald, Kast, Kupferman, and Levy, a projection operator formalism is used to construct a smaller system of equations governing the dynamics of a subset of the original degrees of freedom. This reduced system consists of an effective Hamiltonian dynamics, augmented by an integral memory term and a random noise term. Molecular dynamics is a method for simulating large systems of interacting fluid particles. In this thesis, I construct a formalism for applying optimal prediction to molecular dynamics, producing reduced systems from which the properties of the original system can be recovered. These reduced systems require significantly less computational time than the original system. I initially consider first-order optimal prediction, in which the memory and noise terms are neglected. I construct a pair approximation to the renormalized potential, and ignore three-particle and higher interactions. This produces a reduced system that correctly reproduces static properties of the original system, such as energy and pressure, at low-to-moderate densities. However, it fails to capture dynamical quantities, such as autocorrelation functions. I next derive a short-memory approximation, in which the memory term is represented as a linear frictional force with configuration-dependent coefficients. This allows the use of a Fokker-Planck equation to show that, in this regime, the noise is {delta}-correlated in time. This linear friction model reproduces not only the static properties of the original system, but also the autocorrelation functions of dynamical variables.

  12. Predicting Spinor Condensate Dynamics from Simple Principles

    SciTech Connect

    Moreno-Cardoner, M.; Guilleumas, M.; Polls, A.; Mur-Petit, J.; Sanpera, A.; Lewenstein, M.

    2007-07-13

    We study the spin dynamics of quasi-one-dimensional F=1 condensates both at zero and finite temperatures for arbitrary initial spin configurations. The rich dynamical evolution exhibited by these nonlinear systems is explained by surprisingly simple principles: minimization of energy at zero temperature and maximization of entropy at high temperature. Our analytical results for the homogeneous case are corroborated by numerical simulations for confined condensates in a wide variety of initial conditions. These predictions compare qualitatively well with recent experimental observations and can, therefore, serve as a guidance for ongoing experiments.

  13. Predictive dynamics of human pain perception.

    PubMed

    Cecchi, Guillermo A; Huang, Lejian; Hashmi, Javeria Ali; Baliki, Marwan; Centeno, María V; Rish, Irina; Apkarian, A Vania

    2012-01-01

    While the static magnitude of thermal pain perception has been shown to follow a power-law function of the temperature, its dynamical features have been largely overlooked. Due to the slow temporal experience of pain, multiple studies now show that the time evolution of its magnitude can be captured with continuous online ratings. Here we use such ratings to model quantitatively the temporal dynamics of thermal pain perception. We show that a differential equation captures the details of the temporal evolution in pain ratings in individual subjects for different stimulus pattern complexities, and also demonstrates strong predictive power to infer pain ratings, including readouts based only on brain functional images. PMID:23133342

  14. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of emigration from the Caribbean and the impact of emigration on population composition, with attention to intraregional and return migration. PMID:12320811

  15. A PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN IMPINGEMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of a study to: (1) develop a mathematical model describing fish populations as a function of life process dynamics and facilities that impose additional mortality on fish populations; and (2) improve objective impingement impact prediction. The model acco...

  16. The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

  17. Dynamic matching algorithm for viral structure prediction.

    PubMed

    Li, Hengwu; Zhu, Daming; Zhang, Caiming; Liu, Zhengdong; Han, Huijian; Xu, Zhenzhong

    2014-07-01

    Most viruses have RNA genomes, their biological functions are expressed more by folded architecture than by sequence. Among the various RNA structures, pseudoknots are the most typical. In general, RNA secondary structures prediction doesn't contain pseudoknots because of its difficulty in modeling. Here we present an algorithm of dynamic matching to predict RNA secondary structures with pseudoknots by combining the merits of comparative and thermodynamic approaches. We have tested and verified our algorithm on some viral RNA. Comparisons show that our algorithm and loop matching method has similar accuracy and time complexity, and are more sensitive than the maximum weighted matching method and Rivas algorithm. Among the four methods, our algorithm has the best prediction specificity. The results show that our algorithm is more reliable and efficient than the other methods. PMID:25016258

  18. Prediction of rates of inbreeding in populations selected on best linear unbiased prediction of breeding value

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Woolliams, JA

    2000-01-01

    Predictions for the rate of inbreeding (DeltaF) in populations with discrete generations undergoing selection on best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of breeding value were developed. Predictions were based on the concept of long-term genetic contributions using a recently established relationship between expected contributions and rates of inbreeding and a known procedure for predicting expected contributions. Expected contributions of individuals were predicted using a linear model, u(i)(()(x)()) = alpha + betas(i), where s(i) denotes the selective advantage as a deviation from the contemporaries, which was the sum of the breeding values of the individual and the breeding values of its mates. The accuracy of predictions was evaluated for a wide range of population and genetic parameters. Accurate predictions were obtained for populations of 5-20 sires. For 20-80 sires, systematic underprediction of on average 11% was found, which was shown to be related to the goodness of fit of the linear model. Using simulation, it was shown that a quadratic model would give accurate predictions for those schemes. Furthermore, it was shown that, contrary to random selection, DeltaF less than halved when the number of parents was doubled and that in specific cases DeltaF may increase with the number of dams. PMID:10978300

  19. Prediction of rates of inbreeding in populations selected on best linear unbiased prediction of breeding value.

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Woolliams, J A

    2000-01-01

    Predictions for the rate of inbreeding (DeltaF) in populations with discrete generations undergoing selection on best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of breeding value were developed. Predictions were based on the concept of long-term genetic contributions using a recently established relationship between expected contributions and rates of inbreeding and a known procedure for predicting expected contributions. Expected contributions of individuals were predicted using a linear model, u(i)(()(x)()) = alpha + betas(i), where s(i) denotes the selective advantage as a deviation from the contemporaries, which was the sum of the breeding values of the individual and the breeding values of its mates. The accuracy of predictions was evaluated for a wide range of population and genetic parameters. Accurate predictions were obtained for populations of 5-20 sires. For 20-80 sires, systematic underprediction of on average 11% was found, which was shown to be related to the goodness of fit of the linear model. Using simulation, it was shown that a quadratic model would give accurate predictions for those schemes. Furthermore, it was shown that, contrary to random selection, DeltaF less than halved when the number of parents was doubled and that in specific cases DeltaF may increase with the number of dams. PMID:10978299

  20. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  1. Predicting the dynamics of protein abundance.

    PubMed

    Mehdi, Ahmed M; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L; Bodén, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA-protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation efficiency. The software and data used in this research are available at http://bioinf.scmb.uq.edu.au/proteinabundance/. PMID:24532840

  2. Predicting the Dynamics of Protein Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Mehdi, Ahmed M.; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L.; Bodén, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA–protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation efficiency. The software and data used in this research are available at http://bioinf.scmb.uq.edu.au/proteinabundance/. PMID:24532840

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Method Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. Results During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). Conclusions In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance. PMID:26186332

  5. POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an

    E-print Network

    POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an Agroecosystem with Tomatoes and Potatoes with Management Implications to Processing Tomatoes CHRIS L. HARDING,1 S. J Environ. Entomol. 31(6): 1110Ð1118 (2002) ABSTRACT We evaluated the population dynamics of Colorado potato

  6. Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Holme, Petter

    2012-07-17

    Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people's movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people's movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people's trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought. PMID:22711804

  7. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  8. Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes

    E-print Network

    McMahon, Thomas E.

    rate and population growth rate that individuals within the population do not have, it is increasingly, biologists know that population growth must be the result of additions of individuals through birthLinking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes: a synthesis

  9. THE POPULATION OF HELIUM-MERGER PROGENITORS: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Fryer, Chris L.; Belczynski, Krzysztof; Bulik, Tomasz; Berger, Edo; Thoene, Christina

    2013-02-20

    The helium-merger gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitor is produced by the rapid accretion onto a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole) when it undergoes a common envelope inspiral with its companion's helium core. This merger phase produces a very distinct environment around these outbursts and recent observations suggest that, in some cases, we are detecting the signatures of the past merger in the GRB afterglow. These observations allow us, for the first time, to study the specific features of the helium-merger progenitor. In this paper, we couple population synthesis calculations to our current understanding of GRB engines and common envelope evolution to make observational predictions for the helium-merger GRB population. Many mergers do not produce GRB outbursts and we discuss the implications of these mergers with the broader population of astrophysical transients.

  10. Mapping Genes that Predict Treatment Outcome in Admixed Populations

    PubMed Central

    Baye, Tesfaye M.; Wilke, Russell A.

    2010-01-01

    There is great interest in characterizing the genetic architecture underlying drug response. For many drugs, gene-based dosing models explain a considerable amount of the overall variation in treatment outcome. As such, prescription drug labels are increasingly being modified to contain pharmacogenetic information. Genetic data must, however, be interpreted within the context of relevant clinical covariates. Even the most predictive models improve with the addition of data related to biogeographical ancestry. The current review explores analytical strategies that leverage population structure to more fully characterize genetic determinants of outcome in large clinical practice-based cohorts. The success of this approach will depend upon several key factors: (1) the availability of outcome data from groups of admixed individuals (i.e., populations recombined over multiple generations), (2) a measurable difference in treatment outcome (i.e., efficacy and toxicity endpoints), and (3) a measurable difference in allele frequency between the ancestral populations. PMID:20921971

  11. Social Dynamics in Natural Populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

    E-print Network

    West, Stuart

    Social Dynamics in Natural Populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Melanie Ghoul Merton. Loss of Social Behaviours in Populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infecting Lungs the bacterial genomes and annotated them with all ribosomal and bacterial multilocus sequence typing DNA

  12. Predictive Coding of Dynamical Variables in Balanced Spiking Networks

    PubMed Central

    Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K.; Denève, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated. PMID:24244113

  13. Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating

    E-print Network

    Hicks, Michael

    Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating GARETH STOYLE University presents Proteus, a core calculus that models dynamic software updating, a service for fixing bugs Additional Key Words and Phrases: dynamic software updating, updateability analysis, type inference

  14. From Neural Responses to Population Behavior: Neural Focus Group Predicts Population-Level Media Effects

    PubMed Central

    Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Lieberman, Matthew D.

    2013-01-01

    Can neural responses of a small group of individuals predict the behavior of large-scale populations? In this investigation, brain activations were recorded while smokers viewed three different television campaigns promoting the National Cancer Institute’s telephone hotline to help smokers quit (1-800-QUIT-NOW). The smokers also provided self-report predictions of the campaigns’ relative effectiveness. Population measures of the success of each campaign were computed by comparing call volume to 1-800-QUIT-NOW in the month before and the month after the launch of each campaign. This approach allowed us to directly compare the predictive value of self-reports with neural predictors of message effectiveness. Neural activity in a medial prefrontal region of interest, previously associated with individual behavior change, predicted the population response, whereas self-report judgments did not. This finding suggests a novel way of connecting neural signals to population responses that has not been previously demonstrated and provides information that may be difficult to obtain otherwise. PMID:22510393

  15. A novel epidemiological model to better understand and predict the observed seasonal spread of Pestivirus in Pyrenean chamois populations.

    PubMed

    Beaunée, Gaël; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Garel, Mathieu; Ezanno, Pauline

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal variations in individual contacts give rise to a complex interplay between host demography and pathogen transmission. This is particularly true for wild populations, which highly depend on their natural habitat. These seasonal cycles induce variations in pathogen transmission. The seasonality of these biological processes should therefore be considered to better represent and predict pathogen spread. In this study, we sought to better understand how the seasonality of both the demography and social contacts of a mountain ungulate population impacts the spread of a pestivirus within, and the dynamics of, this population. We propose a mathematical model to represent this complex biological system. The pestivirus can be transmitted both horizontally through direct contact and vertically in utero. Vertical transmission leads to abortion or to the birth of persistently infected animals with a short life expectancy. Horizontal transmission involves a complex dynamics because of seasonal variations in contact among sexes and age classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis that identified transmission rates and disease-related mortality as key parameters. We then used data from a long-term demographic and epidemiological survey of the studied population to estimate these mostly unknown epidemiological parameters. Our model adequately represents the system dynamics, observations and model predictions showing similar seasonal patterns. We show that the virus has a significant impact on population dynamics, and that persistently infected animals play a major role in the epidemic dynamics. Modeling the seasonal dynamics allowed us to obtain realistic prediction and to identify key parameters of transmission. PMID:26208716

  16. Dynamics of Genome Rearrangement in Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Darling, Aaron E.; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    Genome structure variation has profound impacts on phenotype in organisms ranging from microbes to humans, yet little is known about how natural selection acts on genome arrangement. Pathogenic bacteria such as Yersinia pestis, which causes bubonic and pneumonic plague, often exhibit a high degree of genomic rearrangement. The recent availability of several Yersinia genomes offers an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution of genome structure and arrangement. We introduce a set of statistical methods to study patterns of rearrangement in circular chromosomes and apply them to the Yersinia. We constructed a multiple alignment of eight Yersinia genomes using Mauve software to identify 78 conserved segments that are internally free from genome rearrangement. Based on the alignment, we applied Bayesian statistical methods to infer the phylogenetic inversion history of Yersinia. The sampling of genome arrangement reconstructions contains seven parsimonious tree topologies, each having different histories of 79 inversions. Topologies with a greater number of inversions also exist, but were sampled less frequently. The inversion phylogenies agree with results suggested by SNP patterns. We then analyzed reconstructed inversion histories to identify patterns of rearrangement. We confirm an over-representation of “symmetric inversions”—inversions with endpoints that are equally distant from the origin of chromosomal replication. Ancestral genome arrangements demonstrate moderate preference for replichore balance in Yersinia. We found that all inversions are shorter than expected under a neutral model, whereas inversions acting within a single replichore are much shorter than expected. We also found evidence for a canonical configuration of the origin and terminus of replication. Finally, breakpoint reuse analysis reveals that inversions with endpoints proximal to the origin of DNA replication are nearly three times more frequent. Our findings represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  17. Dynamics of population rate codes in ensembles of neocortical neurons

    E-print Network

    Tsodyks, Misha

    Dynamics of population rate codes in ensembles of neocortical neurons Silberberg, G.1 , Bethge, M.2- dicating that neuronal ensembles faithfully transmit rapidly changing signals to each other. Apart from signal-to-noise issues, population codes are funda- mentally constrained by the neuronal dynamics

  18. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  19. Arthropod population and community dynamics in turfgrass 

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yong

    1998-01-01

    Non-target arthropod and nematode populations in ographics. fungal and nematode treated bermudagrass were contrasted with populations in a chlorpyrifos and an untreated control treatment. Fifty-five arthropod families or suborder, herein referred...

  20. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few topics have attracted the attention of ecologists more than fluctuations in the numbers of plants and animals through time and their variation in abundance through space. nderstanding population fluctuations, and thus population conservation, requires understanding the links ...

  1. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, D.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  2. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species. PMID:25360620

  3. Population Ecology Wolf Population Dynamics in the U.S.

    E-print Network

    Mitchell, Mike

    as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need gray wolves (Canis lupus), presents unique challenges for wildlife professionals. Responsible

  4. Dynamic situation assessment and prediction (DSAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sisti, Alex F.

    2003-09-01

    The face of war has changed. We no longer have the luxury of planning campaigns against a known enemy operating under a well-understood doctrine, using conventional weapons and rules of engagement; all in a well-charted region. Instead, today's Air Force faces new, unforeseen enemies, asymmetric combat situations and unconventional warfare (Chem/Bio, co-location of military assets near civilian facilities, etc.). At the same time, the emergence of new Air Force doctrinal notions (e.g., Global Strike Task Force, Effects-Based Operations, the desire to minimize or eliminate any collateral damage, etc.)- while propounding the benefits that can be expected with the adoption of such concepts - also impose many new technical and operational challenges. Furthermore, future mission/battle commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous glut of available information, and still be expected to make quick-response decisions - and to quantify the effects of those decisions - all in the face of uncertainty. All these factors translate to the need for dramatic improvements in the way we plan, rehearse, execute and dynamically assess the status of military campaigns. This paper addresses these crucial and revolutionary requirements through the pursuit of a new simulation paradigm that allows a user to perform real-time dynamic situation assessment and prediction.

  5. Carrel: Red Widow Spider Populations 385 POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE RED WIDOW SPIDER

    E-print Network

    Carrel, James E.

    Carrel: Red Widow Spider Populations 385 POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE RED WIDOW SPIDER (ARANEAE-Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211-7400 ABSTRACT Populations of the red widow spider, Latrodectus bishopi, in native higher above the ground (~0.5 m) than spiders in scrub palmetto (Sabal etonia) (~0.3 m). From a peak

  6. Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations

    PubMed Central

    Caudron, Q.; Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Gottfreðsson, M.; Viboud, C.; Cliff, A. D.; Grenfell, B. T.

    2015-01-01

    A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction–recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations. PMID:25411411

  7. The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

    PubMed

    Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

    2015-07-01

    Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. PMID:25914143

  8. Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations.

    PubMed

    Gerber, Brian D; Kendall, William L; Hooten, Mevin B; Dubovsky, James A; Drewien, Roderick C

    2015-09-01

    1. Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. 2. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. 3. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring-summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. 4. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. 5. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions. PMID:25808951

  9. Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo.

    PubMed

    Gorsich, Erin E; Ezenwa, Vanessa O; Cross, Paul C; Bengis, Roy G; Jolles, Anna E

    2015-07-01

    Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, the bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic infections and abortions in wild and domestic ungulates, but its impact on population dynamics is not well understood. We report infection patterns and fitness correlates of bovine brucellosis in African buffalo based on (1) 7 years of cross-sectional disease surveys and (2) a 4-year longitudinal study in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We then used a matrix population model to translate these observed patterns into predicted population-level effects. Annual brucellosis seroprevalence ranged from 8·7% (95% CI = 1·8-15·6) to 47·6% (95% CI = 35·1-60·1) increased with age until adulthood (>6) and varied by location within KNP. Animals were on average in worse condition after testing positive for brucellosis (F = -5·074, P < 0·0001), and infection was associated with a 2·0 (95% CI = 1·1-3·7) fold increase in mortality (?(2)  = 2·039, P = 0·036). Buffalo in low body condition were associated with lower reproductive success (F = 2·683, P = 0·034), but there was no association between brucellosis and pregnancy or being observed with a calf. For the range of body condition scores observed in the population, the model-predicted growth rate was ? = 1·11 (95% CI = 1·02-1·21) in herds without brucellosis and ? = 1·00 (95% CI = 0·85-1·16) when brucellosis seroprevalence was 30%. Our results suggest that brucellosis infection can potentially result in reduced population growth rates, but because these effects varied with demographic and environmental conditions, they may remain unseen without intensive, longitudinal monitoring. PMID:25714466

  10. Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Fucoid Populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): A Comparison between Central and Range Edge Populations

    PubMed Central

    Araújo, Rita M.; Serrão, Ester A.; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species’ distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (?s) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with ?s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to ?s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals’ life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations. PMID:24651480

  11. Population-based prediction equations for neurobehavioral tests.

    PubMed

    Kilburn, K H; Thornton, J C; Hanscom, B

    1998-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of neurobehavioral function appraises brain injury from inhaled chemicals. Contemporary predicted values for tests useful in epidemiological studies have been developed with step-wise linear regression. In instances in which age and education do not match those of control groups, these equations assist in the interpretation of results of examinations of individual subjects and pilot studies. In this study, investigators considered brain function tests to be analogous in concept to pulmonary function tests. The authors used the tests to assess 293 adults in three unexposed groups from different areas of the United States. The subjects, who were contacted at random from voter registration rolls, were compensated for their time. The tests included balance, reaction time, strength, hearing, visual performance and cognitive recall, and perceptual motor and memory functions. Regression equations modeled the performance of each test and the influences of demographic factors. The investigators retained all influential factors in the equations. Age was a significant predictor for most tests. Education attainment was not a factor in any of the physiological measures, but it was a determinant in many psychological tests. Prediction equations assist investigators in the quantitative testing of chemically exposed individuals and other brain-injured individuals. The investigators verified the equations against other groups, including additional unexposed populations. PMID:9709989

  12. Population dynamics and competitive outcome derive from resource allocation statistics: The governing influence of the distinguishability of individuals.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yu J; Harte, John

    2015-11-01

    Model predictions for species competition outcomes highly depend on the assumed form of the population growth function. In this paper we apply an alternative inferential method based on statistical mechanics, maximizing Boltzmann entropy, to predict resource-constrained population dynamics and coexistence. Within this framework, population dynamics and competition outcome can be determined without assuming any particular form of the population growth function. The dynamics of each species is determined by two parameters: the mean resource requirement ? (related to the mean metabolic rate) and individual distinguishability Dr (related to intra- compared to interspecific functional variation). Our theory clarifies the condition for the energetic equivalence rule (EER) to hold, and provide a statistical explanation for the importance of species functional variation in determining population dynamics and coexistence patterns. PMID:26226230

  13. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  14. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  15. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations. PMID:26172687

  16. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  17. Sexual abuse predicts functional somatic symptoms: an adolescent population study.

    PubMed

    Bonvanie, Irma J; van Gils, Anne; Janssens, Karin A M; Rosmalen, Judith G M

    2015-08-01

    The main aim of this study was to investigate the effect of childhood sexual abuse on medically not well explained or functional somatic symptoms (FSSs) in adolescents. We hypothesized that sexual abuse predicts higher levels of FSSs and that anxiety and depression contribute to this relationship. In addition, we hypothesized that more severe abuse is associated with higher levels of FSSs and that sexual abuse is related to gastrointestinal FSSs in particular. This study was part of the Tracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS): a general population cohort which started in 2001 (N=2,230; 50.8% girls, mean age 11.1 years). The current study uses data of 1,680 participants over four assessment waves (75% of baseline, mean duration of follow-up: 8 years). FSSs were measured by the Somatic Complaints subscale of the Youth Self-Report at all waves. Sexual abuse before the age of sixteen was assessed retrospectively with a questionnaire at T4. To test the hypotheses linear mixed models were used adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, anxiety and depression. Sexual abuse predicted higher levels of FSSs after adjustment for age sex and socioeconomic status (B=.06) and after additional adjustment for anxiety and depression (B=.03). While sexual abuse involving physical contact significantly predicted the level of FSSs (assault; B=.08, rape; B=.05), non-contact sexual abuse was not significantly associated with FSSs (B=.04). Sexual abuse was not a stronger predictor of gastrointestinal FSSs (B=.06) than of all FSSs. Further research is needed to clarify possible mechanisms underlying relationship between sexual abuse and FSSs. PMID:26142915

  18. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  19. Phenotypic Variance Predicts Symbiont Population Densities in Corals: A Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    van Woesik, Robert; Shiroma, Kazuyo; Koksal, Semen

    2010-01-01

    Background We test whether the phenotypic variance of symbionts (Symbiodinium) in corals is closely related with the capacity of corals to acclimatize to increasing seawater temperatures. Moreover, we assess whether more specialist symbionts will increase within coral hosts under ocean warming. The present study is only applicable to those corals that naturally have the capacity to support more than one type of Symbiodinium within the lifetime of a colony; for example, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. Methodology/Principal Findings The population dynamics of competing Symbiodinium symbiont populations were projected through time in coral hosts using a novel, discrete time optimal–resource model. Models were run for two Atlantic Ocean localities. Four symbiont populations, with different environmental optima and phenotypic variances, were modeled to grow, divide, and compete in the corals under seasonal fluctuations in solar insolation and seawater temperature. Elevated seawater temperatures were input into the model 1.5°C above the seasonal summer average, and the symbiont population response was observed for each location. The models showed dynamic fluctuations in Symbiodinium populations densities within corals. Population density predictions for Lee Stocking Island, the Bahamas, where temperatures were relatively homogenous throughout the year, showed a dominance of both type 2, with high phenotypic variance, and type 1, a high-temperature and high-insolation specialist. Whereas the densities of Symbiodinium types 3 and 4, a high-temperature, low-insolation specialist, and a high-temperature, low-insolation generalist, remained consistently low. Predictions for Key Largo, Florida, where environmental conditions were more seasonally variable, showed the coexistence of generalists (types 2 and 4) and low densities of specialists (types 1 and 3). When elevated temperatures were input into the model, population densities in corals at Lee Stocking Island showed an emergence of high-temperature specialists. However, even under high temperatures, corals in the Florida Keys were dominated by generalists. Conclusions/Significance Predictions at higher seawater temperatures showed endogenous shuffling and an emergence of the high-temperature Symbiodinium specialists, even though their phenotypic variance was low. The model shows that sustaining these “hidden” specialists becomes advantageous under thermal stress conditions, and shuffling symbionts may increase the corals' capacity to acclimatize but not adapt to climatechange–induced ocean warming. PMID:20169202

  20. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  1. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  2. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  3. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  4. Spatio-temporal dynamics before population collapse

    E-print Network

    Dai, Lei, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2014-01-01

    Theory predicts that the approach of catastrophic thresholds in natural systems may result in an increasingly slow recovery from small perturbations, a phenomenon called critical slowing down. In this thesis, we used ...

  5. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  6. Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

    PubMed Central

    Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

    1999-01-01

    A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

  7. STAMP: Sequence tag-based analysis of microbial population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Abel, Sören; zur Wiesch, Pia Abel; Chang, Hsiao-Han; Davis, Brigid M.; Lipsitch, Marc; Waldor, Matthew K.

    2014-01-01

    We describe a new method (STAMP) for characterization of pathogen population dynamics during infection. STAMP analyzes the frequency changes of genetically “barcoded” organisms to quantify population bottlenecks and infer the founding population size. Analyses of intra-intestinal Vibrio cholerae revealed infection-stage and region-specific host barriers to infection, and unexpectedly showed V. cholerae migration counter to intestinal flow. STAMP provides a robust, widely applicable analytical framework for high confidence characterization of in vivo microbial dissemination. PMID:25599549

  8. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

    PubMed Central

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-01-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, ?-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  9. Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Meer, Jaap; Beukema, J. J.; Dekker, Rob

    2013-09-01

    More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average sea surface winter temperature on the population dynamics, and one-year ahead model forecasts correlated well with true observations (r = 0.90). During the last decade a pronounced warming of the area occurred. Average winter temperature increased with 0.9 °C. Here we show that despite the high goodness-of-fit whilst using the original dataset, predictive capability of the models for the recent warm period was poor.

  10. Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating

    E-print Network

    Chrobak, Marek

    Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating Gareth Stoyle Michael Hicks Gavin Dynamic software updates can be used to fix bugs or add features to a running program without downtime--Semantics,Syntax General Terms Design, Languages, Reliability, Theory, Verification Keywords dynamic software updating

  11. Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating

    E-print Network

    Sewell, Peter

    Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating Gareth Stoyle Michael Hicks Gavin@microsoft.com {mwh,neamtiu}@cs.umd.edu ABSTRACT Dynamic software updates can be used to fix bugs or add features, Reliability, Theory, Verification Keywords dynamic software updating, updateability analysis, type inference

  12. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  13. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  14. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    PubMed

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). PMID:24373938

  15. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics

    E-print Network

    M. Khasin; M. I. Dykman

    2009-04-10

    Population extinction is a rare event which requires overcoming an effective barrier. We show that the extinction rate can be fragile: a small change in the system parameters leads to an exponentially strong change of the rate, with the barrier height depending on the parameters nonanalytically. General conditions of the fragility are established. The fragility is found in one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the SIS model. The analytical expressions are compared with simulations.

  16. Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

  17. Dynamical Interactions Between Human Populations and Landscapes in Barrier Island Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNamara, D. E.; Werner, B. T.

    2003-12-01

    Although much research has focused on how humans affect landscapes or how landform processes affect humans, little attention has been paid to dynamical interactions between the two. Based on the hypothesis that landscape and human dynamics both self-organize into a temporal hierarchy of scale-separated behaviors, we model the evolution of a coupled human population and barrier island system. Barrier islands are represented as a series of alongshore nodes, with each node specifying the width, height, cross-shore position, and profile of the island and the beach width, dune position and dune height. These characteristics evolve according to rules governing sediment transport during acretionary phases, erosion from storms, dune growth and migration, tidal delta formation, overwash, inlet formation, alongshore sediment transport, and dune and backbarrier vegetation growth. At each of these nodes, human populations and their cultural accoutrements are represented by mean property value, fraction of land used for tourist accommodations and tourist population. The dynamics of these variables is determined by simulating the competition for economic resources amongst the local population and the desire of the tourist population for adequate recreational beaches. The human and barrier subsystems are coupled through beach replenishment and a dependence of tourist population on beach width. Model results fall into three general categories of dynamical behavior, as classified by the (linearized) time scale of recovery from perturbations for the uncoupled systems. When the time scale for barrier islands is much less than that of the human population, the long-time-scale evolution of the barrier island follows human dynamics. In the reverse case, the long-time-scale evolution of the human population follows barrier dynamics. When the time scales are similar, new long-time-scale, spatially varying behavior of the coupled system emerges. Implications for prediction and optimization strategies will be discussed.

  18. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  19. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

  20. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Leibler, Stanislas

    2015-10-01

    Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES) as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  1. Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

  2. Stochastic population dynamics and life-history variation in marine fish species.

    PubMed

    Bjørkvoll, Eirin; Grøtan, Vidar; Aanes, Sondre; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Aanes, Ronny

    2012-09-01

    We examined whether differences in life-history characteristics can explain interspecific variation in stochastic population dynamics in nine marine fish species living in the Barents Sea system. After observation errors in population estimates were accounted for, temporal variability in natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate was negatively related to generation time. Mean natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate were lower in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Thus, important species-specific characteristics of the population dynamics were related to the species position along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. These relationships were further associated with interspecific differences in ecology: species at the fast end were mainly pelagic, with short generation times and high natural mortality, annual recruitment, and population growth rates, and also showed high temporal variability in those demographic traits. In contrast, species at the slow end were long-lived, deepwater species with low rates and reduced temporal variability in the same demographic traits. These interspecific relationships show that the life-history characteristics of a species can predict basic features of interspecific variation in population dynamical characteristics of marine fish, which should have implications for the choice of harvest strategy to facilitate sustainable yields. PMID:22854080

  3. Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  4. Generating a dynamic synthetic population--using an age-structured two-sex model for household dynamics.

    PubMed

    Namazi-Rad, M; Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, P; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, P; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  5. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are currently being constructed by research teams located in 33 countries on six continents representing wide variations in the level of development, demographics, and policies regarding intergenerational transfers. PMID:26316657

  6. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  7. Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.

    PubMed

    Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

    2013-07-01

    Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization. PMID:23707910

  8. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations). However, in both cases, a mesoscale vortex at the mid level apparently induced by the convection tends to induce a cyclonic circulation at the low level after several hours' adjustment which eventually leads to the development of the hurricane similar to that simulated in ENKF06 (and to observations). This result implies that, under favorable conditions for tropical development and rapid intensification, the exact route to tropical cyclogenesis, either top-down or bottom-up, may be of secondary importance. Nevertheless, prior to the rapid intensification, all three experiments produce abundant convection (VHTs) near the center of the TC circulation. As soon as one or a few VHTs appear right at the center of the low-level cyclonic circulation, rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone is followed. We are currently examining potential dominating factors in controlling the near- synchronous rapid development at similar location among the three simulations with significantly different initial circulations.

  9. Joint Models for Longitudinal and Survival Data & Dynamic Predictions

    E-print Network

    Davis, Jesse

    Joint Models for Longitudinal and Survival Data & Dynamic Predictions Dimitris Rizopoulos increasing interest in joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data (Tsiatis & Davidian, Stat has focused on: several extensions of the standard joint model, new estimation approaches

  10. Density-dependent dispersal and spatial population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Ims, Rolf A; Andreassen, Harry P

    2005-01-01

    The synchronization of the dynamics of spatially subdivided populations is of both fundamental and applied interest in population biology. Based on theoretical studies, dispersal movements have been inferred to be one of the most general causes of population synchrony, yet no empirical study has mapped distance-dependent estimates of movement rates on the actual pattern of synchrony in species that are known to exhibit population synchrony. Northern vole and lemming species are particularly well-known for their spatially synchronized population dynamics. Here, we use results from an experimental study to demonstrate that tundra vole dispersal movements did not act to synchronize population dynamics in fragmented habitats. In contrast to the constant dispersal rate assumed in earlier theoretical studies, the tundra vole, and many other species, exhibit negative density-dependent dispersal. Simulations of a simple mathematical model, parametrized on the basis of our experimental data, verify the empirical results, namely that the observed negative density-dependent dispersal did not have a significant synchronizing effect. PMID:16024345

  11. Evaluation of predictive accuracy in structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1989-01-01

    The evaluation of the predictive accuracy of dynamic models for future large space structures is addressed. Mass and stiffness uncertainties derived from a comparison of analytical and experimental modes are used to evaluate the uncertainty of response predictions based on the analytical model.

  12. Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks

    E-print Network

    Blower, Sally

    Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks *Travis C. Porco, U.S.A. Summary: HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis out- breaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic

  13. Predicting Tenure Dynamics: Models Help Manage Tenure System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strauss, Jon C.

    1997-01-01

    Presents three different, complementary statistical models for predicting faculty tenure dynamics, using data from Worcester Polytechnic Institute (Massachusetts). The difference equation model exactly describes future behavior but requires complete specification. The Markov-chain model can predict the full life-cycle of tenure from initial age…

  14. Open problem: Dynamic Relational Models for Improved Hazardous Weather Prediction

    E-print Network

    McGovern, Amy

    Open problem: Dynamic Relational Models for Improved Hazardous Weather Prediction Amy McGovern1 dis- covery methods for use on mesoscale weather data. Severe weather phenomena such as tornados, thun, current techniques for predicting severe weather are tied to specific characteristics of the radar systems

  15. Dynamics of Two Populations with Different Birth Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Julia; Pekalski, Andrzej

    We propose a simple model describing the dynamics of a system of two populations — more numerous natives and less numerous immigrants. The immigrants' birth rate is higher than that of the natives. Several modifications of this model taking into account changes of the birth rates due to external factors and/or possibility of contacts between the populations, are also introduced. The model is studied within two approaches — by solving a set of differential equations and through a Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the question of which population will eventually dominate depends on such factors as the probability of producing offsprings of mixed origin, assimilation of the immigrants, the ratio of the birth rates, initial numbers of the populations and the average age of an individual. In all, but two extreme cases, both populations will survive.

  16. Predicting Reading Ability for Bilingual Latino Children Using Dynamic Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petersen, Douglas B.; Gillam, Ronald B.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the predictive validity of a dynamic assessment designed to evaluate later risk for reading difficulty in bilingual Latino children at risk for language impairment. During kindergarten, 63 bilingual Latino children completed a dynamic assessment nonsense-word recoding task that yielded pretest to posttest gain scores,…

  17. Fragment size prediction in dynamic fragmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grady, D. E.

    1982-04-01

    A general definition of dynamic fragmentation can encompass any impulsive process which partitions a body of material into discrete domains. Included, for example, would be fragmentation due to brittle fracture under impact loading or fragmentation due to shear banding in shock-compression plastic deformation. An energy approach is proposed whereby surface or interface area created in the fragmentation process is governed by an equilibrium balance of the surface or interface energy and a microstructural inertial or kinetic energy term. Relations provided by the analysis compare well with experimental dynamic fracture and shock-wave shear-band results.

  18. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. PMID:25403576

  19. Genomic predictability of interconnected bi-parental maize populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations leads to new challenges for genomic selection (GS) not encountered in animal breeding. One important open question is how the training population (TP) should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small bi-parental families. Knowing the pr...

  20. Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters

    E-print Network

    D. Vanbeveren; H. Belkus; J. Van Bever; N. Mennekens

    2008-01-17

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

  1. Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters

    E-print Network

    Vanbeveren, D; Van Bever, J; Mennekens, N

    2008-01-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

  2. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, ? Car, ? Pup, ?2 Velorum and WR 140.

  3. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department of Mathematics Towson University May 24, 2008 Mike O'Leary (Towson University) A Diffusion Model in Genetics May determine the long-time behavior of the total genetic variance? Portions of this work are joint with Judith

  4. Modelling microbial population dynamics in nitritation processes Elisabetta Giusti a

    E-print Network

    . A modified Activated Sludge Model No. 3 (ASM3) with two-step nitrification-denitrifi- cation. Environmental January 2011 Accepted 1 February 2011 Available online 3 March 2011 Keywords: Microbial kinetics Activated sludge modelling Parameter estimation Population dynamics Nitritation a b s t r a c t In the wastewater

  5. Reproduction and Population Dynamics in the Calcareous Sponge, Leucetta losangelensis

    E-print Network

    Shuster, Stephen M.

    Reproduction and Population Dynamics in the Calcareous Sponge, Leucetta losangelensis Dannielle Leucetta losangelensis is a common intertidal calcareous sponge inhabiting the northern Gulf of California and reproductive behavior, we censused sponges inhabiting a mid-intertidal boulder field near Puerto Peñasco

  6. Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P. Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  7. Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    techniques. Meth­ ods for comparing competing population dynamics models are developed, based) in making decisions about bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, is the replacement yield, RY. Information to many simulation models in other areas of science and policy­making. Software to implement these methods

  8. 2002 Poultry Science Association, Inc. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF MANURE

    E-print Network

    Kaufman, Phillip E.

    2002 Poultry Science Association, Inc. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF MANURE INHABITING ARTHROPODS UNDER AN INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT (IPM) PROGRAM IN NEW YORK POULTRY FACILITIES--3 CASE STUDIES P. E. KAUFMAN,1 M, Plant Managers SUMMARY Many arthropods inhabit caged-layer poultry manure, including pest and beneficial

  9. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  10. Modeling the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmids in Spatial Populations

    E-print Network

    Modeling the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmids in Spatial Populations Brian D. Connelly, Luis Zaman of Computation--Self-modifying machines General Terms Experimentation, Theory Keywords Artificial life, plasmid the relationship between selection for plasmid- encoded adaptations and the costs of plasmid carriage in spatial

  11. EURING PROCEEDINGS Investigating the population dynamics of California spotted owls

    E-print Network

    Gutiérrez, R.J.

    EURING PROCEEDINGS Investigating the population dynamics of California spotted owls without marked spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) at the Eldorado study area in central Sierra Nevada, California, USA, where interest is in the occupancy rate of potential nesting territories, and in whether

  12. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

  13. Computer simulation of Boophilus cattle tick (Acari: Ixodidae) population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mount, G A; Haile, D G; Davey, R B; Cooksey, L M

    1991-03-01

    A comprehensive computer model was developed for simulation of the population dynamics of the cattle ticks, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini) and B. annulatus (Say). The model is deterministic and based on a dynamic life table with weekly time steps. The model simulates the effects of major environmental variables, such as ambient temperature, saturation deficit, precipitation, type of pasture, type of cattle, and cattle density on Boophilus cattle tick population dynamics. General validity of the model is established by comparing simulated and observed yearly densities of standard female ticks/host/day. B. microplus population comparisons were made for a series of years using weekly weather data from two locations in Queensland, Australia. The model also produced acceptable values for initial population growth rate, generation time, and 3-yr population density when historical weather at 7 locations in Australia and 23 locations in the Americas were used. This model provides a framework for the study of Babesia transmission by Boophilus ticks, and can be used to study the effects of control technologies and to develop more efficient and environmentally acceptable eradication strategies for Boophilus ticks. PMID:2056504

  14. Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

    2014-01-01

    Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

  15. Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

    2014-04-01

    Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.

  16. Uncovering epidemiological dynamics in heterogeneous host populations using phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Stadler, Tanja; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2013-03-19

    Host population structure has a major influence on epidemiological dynamics. However, in particular for sexually transmitted diseases, quantitative data on population contact structure are hard to obtain. Here, we introduce a new method that quantifies host population structure based on phylogenetic trees, which are obtained from pathogen genetic sequence data. Our method is based on a maximum-likelihood framework and uses a multi-type branching process, under which each host is assigned to a type (subpopulation). In a simulation study, we show that our method produces accurate parameter estimates for phylogenetic trees in which each tip is assigned to a type, as well for phylogenetic trees in which the type of the tip is unknown. We apply the method to a Latvian HIV-1 dataset, quantifying the impact of the intravenous drug user epidemic on the heterosexual epidemic (known tip states), and identifying superspreader dynamics within the men-having-sex-with-men epidemic (unknown tip states). PMID:23382421

  17. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  18. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more »by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  19. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  20. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  1. How predictable : modeling rates of change in individuals and populations

    E-print Network

    Krumme, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    This thesis develops methodologies to measure rates of change in individual human behavior, and to capture statistical regularities in change at the population level, in three pieces: i) a model of individual rate of change ...

  2. Population Dynamics of a Commercial Sponge in Biscayne Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, W. P.; Lirman, D.; Tosini, S. C.; DiResta, D.; Luo, J.; Wang, J.

    2001-07-01

    The dynamics of glove sponge ( Spongia graminea) population in Biscayne Bay, Florida were investigated using a series of matrix population models, a hydrodynamic model, and a GIS data base. Sponges at Billy's Point, on the eastern margin of Biscayne Bay, were sampled between 1993 and 1995 and resampled in 2000 for model calibration and testing. An iterative procedure was used to fit unmeasured fecundity and a growth parameter by minimizing the 1993 to 2000 simulated differences from the observed year 2000 size class distribution. A density dependent model was found to fit the total population size in 2000 better than the density independent matrix model. Systematic sampling of the bay was used to identify four local populations with sponge densities above 50 ha -1. The three western populations experienced salinity below 25, based on hydrodynamic model outputs for 1995, whereas the eastern Billy's Point population had a stable ocean salinity environment. The hydrodynamic model was used to simulate larval transport between local populations as lagrangian drifting particles. These simulations indicated that the Billy's Point population was likely to be demographically closed.

  3. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  4. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  5. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

  6. Accuracy of genome-enabled prediction exploring purebred and crossbred pig populations.

    PubMed

    Veroneze, R; Lopes, M S; Hidalgo, A M; Guimarães, S E F; Silva, F F; Harlizius, B; Lopes, P S; Knol, E F; M van Arendonk, J A; Bastiaansen, J W M

    2015-10-01

    Pig breeding companies keep relatively small populations of pure sire and dam lines that are selected to improve the performance of crossbred animals. This design of the pig breeding industry presents challenges to the implementation of genomic selection, which requires large data sets to obtain highly accurate genomic breeding values. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of different reference sets (across population and multipopulation) on the accuracy of genomic breeding values in 3 purebred pig populations and to assess the potential of using crossbreed performance in genomic prediction. Data consisted of phenotypes and genotypes on animals from 3 purebred populations (sire line [SL] 1, = 1,146; SL2, = 682; and SL3, = 1,264) and 3 crossbred pig populations (Terminal cross [TER] 1, = 183; TER2, = 106; and TER3, = 177). Animals were genotyped using the Illumina Porcine SNP60 Beadchip. For each purebred population, within-, across-, and multipopulation predictions were considered. In addition, data from the paternal purebred populations were used as a reference set to predict the performance of crossbred animals. Backfat thickness phenotypes were precorrected for fixed effects and subsequently included in the genomic BLUP model. A genomic relationship matrix that accounted for the differences in allele frequencies between lines was implemented. Accuracies of genomic EBV obtained within the 3 different sire lines varied considerably. For within-population prediction, SL1 showed higher values (0.80) than SL2 (0.61) and SL3 (0.67). Multipopulation predictions had accuracies similar to within-population accuracies for the validation in SL1. For SL2 and SL3, the accuracies of multipopulation prediction were similar to the within-population prediction when the reference set was composed by 900 animals (600 of the target line plus 300 of another line). For across-population predictions, the accuracy was mostly close to zero. The accuracies of predicting crossbreed performance were similar for the 3 different crossbred populations (ranging from 0.25 to 0.29). In summary, the differences in accuracy of the within-population scenarios may be due to line divergences in heritability and genetic architecture of the trait. Within- and multipopulation predictions yield similar accuracies. Across-population prediction accuracy was negligible. The moderate accuracy of prediction of crossbreed performance appears to be a result of the relationship between the crossbreed and its parental lines. PMID:26523561

  7. THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLDGY 28, 359-381 (1985) Population Dynamics of Gene Transfer

    E-print Network

    Rose, Michael R.

    1985-01-01

    plasmids seem, therefore, an excellent example of this type of "contagious" genetic element. The dynamics features include accessory genetic element-mediated cell fusion and bacterial transformation when of genetic change in bacterial populations, one taking on a variety of specific forms. A model capturing some

  8. Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    "Because rocket engines operate under extreme temperature and pressure, they present a unique challenge to designers who must test and simulate the technology. To this end, CRAFT Tech Inc., of Pipersville, Pennsylvania, won Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Marshall Space Flight Center to develop software to simulate cryogenic fluid flows and related phenomena. CRAFT Tech enhanced its CRUNCH CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software to simulate phenomena in various liquid propulsion components and systems. Today, both government and industry clients in the aerospace, utilities, and petrochemical industries use the software for analyzing existing systems as well as designing new ones."

  9. Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

    2012-01-01

    Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

  10. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  11. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  12. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate. PMID:20349837

  13. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

    2012-11-01

    Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  14. To understand fish population dynam-ics, reproductive information, such as

    E-print Network

    635 To understand fish population dynam- ics, reproductive information, such as the maturation, at the population level spawning stock biomass does not always corre- late with egg productivity. Length at first-0841 Japan E-mail address (for Y. Narimatsu): nary@affrc.go.jp Hirobumi Onodera Iwate Fisheries Technology

  15. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.

    2015-03-01

    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  16. From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing the Effects of Different Population

    E-print Network

    Bernard, Samuel

    From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing, Texas ABSTRACT Phenotypic cell-to-cell variability or cell population heterogeneity originates from two fundamentally different sources: unequal partitioning of cellular material at cell division and stochastic

  17. Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

  18. Delayed induced silica defences in grasses and their potential for destabilising herbivore population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Jennifer J H; Lambin, Xavier; Massey, Fergus P; Reidinger, Stefan; Sherratt, Jonathan A; Smith, Matthew J; White, Andrew; Hartley, Sue E

    2012-10-01

    Some grass species mount a defensive response to grazing by increasing their rate of uptake of silica from the soil and depositing it as abrasive granules in their leaves. Increased plant silica levels reduce food quality for herbivores that feed on these grasses. Here we provide empirical evidence that a principal food species of an herbivorous rodent exhibits a delayed defensive response to grazing by increasing silica concentrations, and present theoretical modelling that predicts that such a response alone could lead to the population cycles observed in some herbivore populations. Experiments performed under greenhouse conditions revealed that the rate of deposition of silica defences in the grass Deschampsia caespitosa is a time-lagged, nonlinear function of grazing intensity and that, upon cessation of grazing, these defences take around one year to decay to within 5 % of control levels. Simple coupled grass-herbivore population models incorporating this functional response, and parameterised with empirical data, consistently predict population cycles for a wide range of realistic parameter values for a (Microtus) vole-grass system. Our results support the hypothesis that induced silica defences have the potential to strongly affect the population dynamics of their herbivores. Specifically, the feedback response we observed could be a driving mechanism behind the observed population cycles in graminivorous herbivores in cases where grazing levels in the field become sufficiently large and sustained to trigger an induced silica defence response. PMID:22526942

  19. Structural Drift: The Population Dynamics of Sequential Learning

    PubMed Central

    Crutchfield, James P.; Whalen, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream “teacher” and then pass samples from the model to their downstream “student”. It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory. PMID:22685387

  20. Evolutionary dynamics of a multigroup fluctuating-population system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, D. P.; Arora, D.; Prasad, M. A.

    1993-03-01

    We studied the evolutionary dynamics of a population undergoing asexual reproduction in a flat-fitness landscape. The quantity of interest is the distribution of the overlap function q which is a measure of the similarity in the genome structure between two individuals. We obtain analytical expressions for , , and p(q) in a model with the following features: continuous time, fluctuating population divided into many compartments, and a finite number of genes per genome. A few special cases of interest are also discussed.

  1. Predicting reading ability for bilingual Latino children using dynamic assessment.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Douglas B; Gillam, Ronald B

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the predictive validity of a dynamic assessment designed to evaluate later risk for reading difficulty in bilingual Latino children at risk for language impairment. During kindergarten, 63 bilingual Latino children completed a dynamic assessment nonsense-word recoding task that yielded pretest to posttest gain scores, residuum gain scores, and modifiability scores. At the end of first grade, the same participants completed criterion reading measures of word identification, decoding, and reading fluency. The dynamic assessment yielded high classification accuracy, with sensitivity and specificity at or above 80% for all three criterion reading measures, including 100% sensitivity for two out of the three first-grade measures. The dynamic assessment used in this study has promise as a means for predicting first-grade word-level reading ability in Latino, bilingual children. PMID:23629729

  2. Genomic Prediction in Pea: Effect of Marker Density and Training Population Size and Composition on Prediction Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Tayeh, Nadim; Klein, Anthony; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Jacquin, Françoise; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Chabert-Martinello, Marianne; Magnin-Robert, Jean-Bernard; Marget, Pascal; Aubert, Grégoire; Burstin, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Pea is an important food and feed crop and a valuable component of low-input farming systems. Improving resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses is a major breeding target to enhance yield potential and regularity. Genomic selection (GS) has lately emerged as a promising technique to increase the accuracy and gain of marker-based selection. It uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the breeding values of candidate lines to selection. A collection of 339 genetic resource accessions (CRB339) was subjected to high-density genotyping using the GenoPea 13.2K SNP Array. Genomic prediction accuracy was evaluated for thousand seed weight (TSW), the number of seeds per plant (NSeed), and the date of flowering (BegFlo). Mean cross-environment prediction accuracies reached 0.83 for TSW, 0.68 for NSeed, and 0.65 for BegFlo. For each trait, the statistical method, the marker density, and/or the training population size and composition used for prediction were varied to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy: the effect was large for the size and composition of the training population but limited for the statistical method and marker density. Maximizing the relatedness between individuals in the training and test sets, through the CDmean-based method, significantly improved prediction accuracies. A cross-population cross-validation experiment was further conducted using the CRB339 collection as a training population set and nine recombinant inbred lines populations as test set. Prediction quality was high with mean Q2 of 0.44 for TSW and 0.59 for BegFlo. Results are discussed in the light of current efforts to develop GS strategies in pea. PMID:26635819

  3. Predictive markers in calpastatin for tenderness in commercial pig populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The identification of predictive DNA markers for pork quality would allow U.S. pork producers and breeders to more quickly and efficiently select genetically superior animals for production of consistent, high quality meat. Genome scans have identified QTL for tenderness on pig chromosome 2 which ha...

  4. Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J.D. )

    1991-01-01

    Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

  5. The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.; Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Read, Andrew F.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

    2013-01-01

    The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases. PMID:24244467

  6. Exploring iris colour prediction and ancestry inference in admixed populations of South America.

    PubMed

    Freire-Aradas, A; Ruiz, Y; Phillips, C; Maroñas, O; Söchtig, J; Tato, A Gómez; Dios, J Álvarez; de Cal, M Casares; Silbiger, V N; Luchessi, A D; Luchessi, A D; Chiurillo, M A; Carracedo, Á; Lareu, M V

    2014-11-01

    New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples. PMID:25051225

  7. Dynamic Inlet Distortion Prediction with a Combined Computational Fluid Dynamics and Distortion Synthesis Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norby, W. P.; Ladd, J. A.; Yuhas, A. J.

    1996-01-01

    A procedure has been developed for predicting peak dynamic inlet distortion. This procedure combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and distortion synthesis analysis to obtain a prediction of peak dynamic distortion intensity and the associated instantaneous total pressure pattern. A prediction of the steady state total pressure pattern at the Aerodynamic Interface Plane is first obtained using an appropriate CFD flow solver. A corresponding inlet turbulence pattern is obtained from the CFD solution via a correlation linking root mean square (RMS) inlet turbulence to a formulation of several CFD parameters representative of flow turbulence intensity. This correlation was derived using flight data obtained from the NASA High Alpha Research Vehicle flight test program and several CFD solutions at conditions matching the flight test data. A distortion synthesis analysis is then performed on the predicted steady state total pressure and RMS turbulence patterns to yield a predicted value of dynamic distortion intensity and the associated instantaneous total pressure pattern.

  8. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  9. A Novel Dynamic Update Framework for Epileptic Seizure Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Minghui; Hong, Xiaojun; Han, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Epileptic seizure prediction is a difficult problem in clinical applications, and it has the potential to significantly improve the patients' daily lives whose seizures cannot be controlled by either drugs or surgery. However, most current studies of epileptic seizure prediction focus on high sensitivity and low false-positive rate only and lack the flexibility for a variety of epileptic seizures and patients' physical conditions. Therefore, a novel dynamic update framework for epileptic seizure prediction is proposed in this paper. In this framework, two basic sample pools are constructed and updated dynamically. Furthermore, the prediction model can be updated to be the most appropriate one for the prediction of seizures' arrival. Mahalanobis distance is introduced in this part to solve the problem of side information, measuring the distance between two data sets. In addition, a multichannel feature extraction method based on Hilbert-Huang transform and extreme learning machine is utilized to extract the features of a patient's preseizure state against the normal state. At last, a dynamic update epileptic seizure prediction system is built up. Simulations on Freiburg database show that the proposed system has a better performance than the one without update. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices. PMID:25050381

  10. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  11. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  12. Mysid Population Responses to Resource Limitation Differ from those Predicted by Cohort Studies

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects of anthropogenic stressors on animal populations are often evaluated by assembling vital rate responses from isolated cohort studies into a single demographic model. However, models constructed from cohort studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions be...

  13. AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  14. Predicting dynamic performance limits for servosystems with saturating nonlinearities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Webb, J. A., Jr.; Blech, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized treatment for a system with a single saturating nonlinearity is presented and compared with frequency response plots obtained from an analog model of the system. Once the amplitude dynamics are predicted with the limit lines, an iterative technique is employed to determine the system phase response. The saturation limit line technique is used in conjunction with velocity and acceleration limits to predict the performance of an electro-hydraulic servosystem containing a single-stage servovalve. Good agreement was obtained between predicted performance and experimental data.

  15. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  16. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  17. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages

    PubMed Central

    Bull, James J.; Gill, Jason J.

    2014-01-01

    The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i) compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii) assay dynamics in vivo, (iii) understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv) test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v) develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous environments. PMID:25477869

  18. Evolutionary behaviour in ecological systems with trade-offs and non-equilibrium population dynamics

    E-print Network

    White, Andrew

    and co-exist. Keywords: adaptive dynamics, evolutionary branching in fecundity, population oscillationsEvolutionary behaviour in ecological systems with trade-offs and non-equilibrium population change evolutionary behaviour when compared with equilibrium dynamics? Mathematical methods: The theory

  19. Scoring dynamics across professional team sports: tempo, balance and predictability

    E-print Network

    Merritt, Sears

    2013-01-01

    Despite growing interest in quantifying and modeling the scoring dynamics within professional sports games, relative little is known about what patterns or principles, if any, cut across different sports. Using a comprehensive data set of scoring events in nearly a dozen consecutive seasons of college and professional (American) football, professional hockey, and professional basketball, we identify several common patterns in scoring dynamics. Across these sports, scoring tempo---when scoring events occur---closely follows a common Poisson process, with a sport-specific rate. Similarly, scoring balance---how often a team wins an event---follows a common Bernoulli process, with a parameter that effectively varies with the size of the lead. Combining these processes within a generative model of gameplay, we find they both reproduce the observed dynamics in all four sports and accurately predict game outcomes. These results demonstrate common dynamical patterns underlying within-game scoring dynamics across prof...

  20. Phase Space Formulation of Population Dynamics in Ecology

    E-print Network

    Jesus Martinez-Linares

    2013-04-08

    A phase space theory for population dynamics in Ecology is presented. This theory applies for a certain class of dynamical systems, that will be called M-systems, for which a conserved quantity, the M-function, can be defined in phase space. This M-function is the generator of time displacements and contains all the dynamical information of the system. In this sense the M-function plays the role of the hamiltonian function for mechanical systems. In analogy with Hamilton theory we derive equations of motion as derivatives over the resource function in phase space. A M-bracket is defined which allows one to perform a geometrical approach in analogy to Poisson bracket of hamiltonian systems. We show that the equations of motion can be derived from a variational principle over a functional J of the trajectories. This functional plays for M-systems the same role than the action S for hamiltonian systems. Finally, three important systems in population dynamics, namely, Lotka-Volterra, self-feeding and logistic evolution, are shown to be M-systems.

  1. Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

  2. Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor

    E-print Network

    Withers, Paul

    Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor Showers at Mars Paul intervals when there are many of these profiles and call them meteor showers We study cometary orbits to identify the parent bodies responsible for the meteor showers #12;Meteoric Layers (MEX) Profile with EUV

  3. Dynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome

    E-print Network

    Morris, Quaid

    Dynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome Ian W Taylor1 associated with oncogenesis. Analysis of two breast cancer patient cohorts revealed that altered modularity of the human interactome may be useful as an indicator of breast cancer prognosis. Transcriptome analyses have

  4. Dynamic Branch Prediction with Perceptrons Daniel A. Jimenez Calvin Lin

    E-print Network

    Lin, Calvin

    Dynamic Branch Prediction with Perceptrons Daniel A. Jim´enez Calvin Lin Department of Computer that allow our complex predictor to operate in one cycle. 1 Introduction Modern computer architectures and the number of instructions issued per cycle increases, the penalty for a misprediction increases. Recent

  5. The Predictive Validity of Dynamic Assessment: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caffrey, Erin; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors report on a mixed-methods review of 24 studies that explores the predictive validity of dynamic assessment (DA). For 15 of the studies, they conducted quantitative analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients. They descriptively examined the remaining studies to determine if their results were consistent with findings from the…

  6. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers (both permanent and postdoctoral) to push forward the frontiers of ocean of oceanic processes, construction and analysis of ocean models and forecast systems, and basic and applied

  7. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for Ph.D. researchers to advance capabilities in ocean data assimilation and probabilistic, representation of ocean processes affecting temperature, salinity, and mixed- layer depth, uncertainty analysis

  8. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers to push forward the frontiers of ocean forecasting. Problems that must circulation, estuarine and riverine modeling, Arctic ice modeling, internal waves and ocean

  9. Prediction of Creole Emergence in Spatial Language Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Nakamura, Makoto

    in human languages has widely been reported in the study of language evolution [1,2], where interactions among indi- viduals affect language spoken throughout the community, dependent upon the abilitiesPrediction of Creole Emergence in Spatial Language Dynamics Makoto Nakamura1 , Takashi Hashimoto2

  10. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  11. Use of dynamic energy budget and individual based models to simulate the dynamics of cultivated oyster populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacher, Cédric; Gangnery, Aline

    2006-08-01

    We successfully tested a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model of the oyster Crassostrea gigas using published environmental data and growth data collected in Thau lagoon (France). Estimates of most DEB parameters were based on independent datasets and only two parameters were calibrated using our datasets: the shape parameter, which was used to convert body volume into shell length, and the half-saturation coefficient, which controlled the functional response of assimilation to food concentration, represented by chlorophyll-a concentration. The DEB model proved to be robust and generic: it was able to reproduce oyster growth in Thau lagoon and other ecosystems. We also assessed population dynamics by coupling DEB equations and an Individual Based Model (IBM) of cultivated oyster populations. The results were compared with previously published simulations of harvested production and standing stock based on an empirical growth equation and a partial differential equation of population dynamics. Differences between the two studies were explained by the difference between the predictions of oyster growth with the empirical and the DEB models. We also accounted for growth variability between individuals and showed that IBM offers a powerful alternative to continuous equations when several physiological variables are involved.

  12. PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO PM: THE IMPORTANCE OF MICROENVIRONMENTAL CONCENTRATIONS AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) models being developed by the US EPA/NERL use a probabilistic approach to predict population exposures to pollutants. The SHEDS model for particulate matter (SHEDS-PM) estimates the population distribution of PM exposure...

  13. Aphid individual performance may not predict population responses to elevated CO2 or O3

    E-print Network

    Aphid individual performance may not predict population responses to elevated CO2 or O3 C A R O L I of the aphid Cepegillettea betulaefoliae Granovsky feeding on paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.). In Year 1 surveyed natural aphid, predator and parasitoid populations throughout the growing season. Aphid growth

  14. Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima

    2012-01-01

    Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

  15. The human ecological approach to the study of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Namboodiri, K

    1994-01-01

    Human ecology is a specialization of ecology, tailored to suit the characteristic features of human populations. This essay focuses upon human ecology as set forth by Hawley and Duncan, although other conceptualizations are referred to. The bio-ecological framework is described together with an introduction of the distinction between population ecology and community ecology. Bio-ecology is an important subdiscipline of biology, but its subject has never been as complex as that of human ecology. Human ecologists developed their own theoretical framework distinct from that of bio-ecology. The author briefly outlines the history of human ecology, emphasizing the initial phase of the Chicago School, which focused upon spatial patterns of human phenomena, and the succeeding one, in which a reorientation focused upon the organizational aspects of population dynamics. The author then reviews some of the basic features of human ecology, discusses population ecology and its applications, with reference to the study of populations of households, and outlines the use of graph theory, input-output frameworks, and multilevel modeling to improve the formal and methodological aspects of human ecology. The spatial concern of human ecology is considered and situated in a broader context. PMID:12290834

  16. Predicting the Dynamics of Network Connectivity in the Neocortex.

    PubMed

    Loewenstein, Yonatan; Yanover, Uri; Rumpel, Simon

    2015-09-01

    Dynamic remodeling of connectivity is a fundamental feature of neocortical circuits. Unraveling the principles underlying these dynamics is essential for the understanding of how neuronal circuits give rise to computations. Moreover, as complete descriptions of the wiring diagram in cortical tissues are becoming available, deciphering the dynamic elements in these diagrams is crucial for relating them to cortical function. Here, we used chronic in vivo two-photon imaging to longitudinally follow a few thousand dendritic spines in the mouse auditory cortex to study the determinants of these spines' lifetimes. We applied nonlinear regression to quantify the independent contribution of spine age and several morphological parameters to the prediction of the future survival of a spine. We show that spine age, size, and geometry are parameters that can provide independent contributions to the prediction of the longevity of a synaptic connection. In addition, we use this framework to emulate a serial sectioning electron microscopy experiment and demonstrate how incorporation of morphological information of dendritic spines from a single time-point allows estimation of future connectivity states. The distinction between predictable and nonpredictable connectivity changes may be used in the future to identify the specific adaptations of neuronal circuits to environmental changes. The full dataset is publicly available for further analysis. Significance statement: The neural architecture in the neocortex exhibits constant remodeling. The functional consequences of these modifications are poorly understood, in particular because the determinants of these changes are largely unknown. Here, we aimed to identify those modifications that are predictable from current network state. To that goal, we repeatedly imaged thousands of dendritic spines in the auditory cortex of mice to assess the morphology and lifetimes of synaptic connections. We developed models based on morphological features of dendritic spines that allow predicting future turnover of synaptic connections. The dynamic models presented in this paper provide a quantitative framework for adding putative temporal dynamics to the static description of a neuronal circuit from single time-point connectomics experiments. PMID:26354919

  17. Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfan, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar to those of the corresponding series of the actual data measured at the station. Beginning from the initial conditions and being forced by Monte-Carlo generated synthetic meteorological series, the model simulated diverging trajectories of soil moisture characteristics (water content of soil column, moisture of different soil layers, etc.). Limit of predictability of the specific characteristic was determined through time of stabilization of variance of the characteristic between the trajectories, as they move away from the initial state. Numerical experiments were carried out with the stochastic-dynamical model to analyze sensitivity of the soil moisture predictability assessments to uncertainty in the initial conditions, to determine effects of the soil hydraulic properties and processes of soil freezing on the predictability. It was found, particularly, that soil water content predictability is sensitive to errors in the initial conditions and strongly depends on the hydraulic properties of soil under both unfrozen and frozen conditions. Even if the initial conditions are "well-established", the assessed predictability of water content of unfrozen soil does not exceed 30-40 days, while for frozen conditions it may be as long as 3-4 months. The latter creates opportunity for utilizing the autumn water content of soil as the predictor for spring snowmelt runoff in the region under consideration.

  18. Population Dynamics Models in Plant--Insect Herbivore--Pesticide Interactions

    E-print Network

    Population Dynamics Models in Plant--Insect Herbivore--Pesticide Interactions B.M. Adams # , H control on insect herbivore populations. Furthermore, risks associated with traditional pesticides often. Ecologists have long considered increasing plant diversity to regulate insect herbivore populations

  19. Effects of Supplemental Food on Population Dynamics of Cotton Rats, Sigmodon Hispidus

    E-print Network

    Doonan, Terry J.; Slade, Norman A.

    1995-04-01

    Variation in resource abundance affects population dynamics by altering demographic processes and interactions among individuals in the population. For small mammals, food is likely to be a critical resource. Population densities should vary...

  20. Subject-specific prediction using nonlinear population modeling: application to early brain maturation from DTI.

    PubMed

    Sadeghi, Neda; Fletcher, P Thomas; Prastawa, Marcel; Gilmore, John H; Gerig, Guido

    2014-01-01

    The term prediction implies expected outcome in the future, often based on a model and statistical inference. Longitudinal imaging studies offer the possibility to model temporal change trajectories of anatomy across populations of subjects. In the spirit of subject-specific analysis, such normative models can then be used to compare data from new subjects to the norm and to study progression of disease or to predict outcome. This paper follows a statistical inference approach and presents a framework for prediction of future observations based on past measurements and population statistics. We describe prediction in the context of nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NLME) where the full reference population's statistics (estimated fixed effects, variance-covariance of random effects, variance of noise) is used along with the individual's available observations to predict its trajectory. The proposed methodology is generic in regard to application domains. Here, we demonstrate analysis of early infant brain maturation from longitudinal DTI with up to three time points. Growth as observed in DTI-derived scalar invariants is modeled with a parametric function, its parameters being input to NLME population modeling. Trajectories of new subject's data are estimated when using no observation, only the first or the first two time points. Leave-one-out experiments result in statistics on differences between actual and predicted observations. We also simulate a clinical scenario of prediction on multiple categories, where trajectories predicted from multiple models are classified based on maximum likelihood criteria. PMID:25320779

  1. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. PMID:24738826

  2. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    PubMed

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means of transitions to the smallest stage (mostly due to reproduction) and growth differed considerably from their long-term elasticities. It is important to be aware of this difference when using models to predict the effect of manipulating plant vital rates within the time frame of typical plant demographic studies. PMID:26236875

  3. A statistical approach to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature prediction using a dynamical ENSO prediction

    E-print Network

    Kang, In-Sik

    A statistical approach to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature prediction using a dynamical ENSO (SST) in the Indian Ocean. It is a linear regression model based on a lagged relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the NINO3 SST. A new approach to the statistical modeling has been tried out

  4. Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations.

    PubMed

    Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D

    2014-08-01

    Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities. PMID:25097751

  5. Dynamically-motivated observations of three populations of Kuiper belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, Matthew J.; Gladman, Brett; Kavelaars, J. J.

    2000-02-01

    The Kuiper belt is comprised of three populations: objects in Neptune's mean motion resonances, objects with more distant non-resonant orbits, and objects that have been scattered by Neptune. The dynamics of resonant and scattered objects affects their observability and therefore complicates any estimate of their intrinsic abundances. While non-resonant objects are equally observable at all ecliptic longitudes, the 2:3 resonant Kuiper belt objects reach perihelion at ecliptic longitudes separated 90° from Neptune, where they are significantly brighter and hence overrepresented. The resonant dynamics also implies that some objects are most observable at moderate ecliptic latitudes rather than on the ecliptic plane. By comparing the number of KBOs discovered at two different ecliptic longitudes, one 90° and another 180° from Neptune, we can the determine the intrinsic abundances of the different populations. By searching three ecliptic latitudes, 0°, 15°, and 30°, at both of the longitudes we will also constrain the intrinsic size and inclination distributions of the three populations. We will search one ecliptic longitude this semester and will request time to search a second in the 00II semester. We expect to discover roughly 30-50 new KBOs in this run. This proposal was awarded two nights in the 99I semester, May 5-6, 1999. Both nights were lost to poor weather and poor seeing.

  6. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  7. Long-term disease dynamics in lakes: causes and consequences of chytrid infections in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Ives, Anthony R; Lathrop, Richard C; Carpenter, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the drivers and consequences of disease epidemics is an important frontier in ecology. However, long-term data on hosts, their parasites, and the corresponding environmental conditions necessary to explore these interactions are often unavailable. We examined the dynamics of Daphnia pulicaria, a keystone zooplankter in lake ecosystems, to explore the long-term causes and consequences of infection by a chytridiomycete parasitoid (Polycaryum laeve). After quantifying host-pathogen dynamics from vouchered samples collected over 15 years, we used autoregressive models to evaluate (1) hypothesized drivers of infection, including host density, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, host-food availability, and lake mixing; and (2) the effects of epidemics on host populations. Infection was present in most years but varied widely in prevalence, from < 1% to 34%, with seasonal peaks in early spring and late fall. Within years, lake stratification strongly inhibited P. laeve transmission, such that epidemics occurred primarily during periods of water mixing. Development of the thermocline likely reduced transmission by spatially separating susceptible hosts from infectious zoospores. Among years, ice duration and cumulative snowfall correlated negatively with infection prevalence, likely because of reductions in spring phytoplankton and D. pulicaria density in years with extended winters. Epidemics also influenced dynamics of the host population. Infected D. pulicaria rarely (< 1%) contained eggs, and P. laeve prevalence was positively correlated with sexual reproduction in D. pulicaria. Analyses of D. pulicaria density-dependent population dynamics predicted that, in the absence of P. laeve infection, host abundance would be 11-50% higher than what was observed. By underscoring the importance of complex physical processes in controlling host-parasite interactions and of epidemic disease in influencing host populations, our results highlight the value of long-term data for understanding wildlife disease dynamics. PMID:19294920

  8. Orbit determination and prediction study for Dynamic Explorer 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, R. L.; Nakai, Y.; Doll, C. E.

    1983-01-01

    Definitive orbit determination accuracy and orbit prediction accuracy for the Dynamic Explorer-2 (DE-2) are studied using the trajectory determination system for the period within six weeks of spacecraft reentry. Baseline accuracies using standard orbit determination models and methods are established. A promising general technique for improving the orbit determination accuracy of high drag orbits, estimation of random drag variations at perigee passages, is investigated. This technique improved the fit to the tracking data by a factor of five and improved the solution overlap consistency by a factor of two during a period in which the spacecraft perigee altitude was below 200 kilometers. The results of the DE-2 orbit predictions showed that improvement in short term prediction accuracy reduces to the problem of predicting future drag scale factors: the smoothness of the solar 10.7 centimeter flux density suggests that this may be feasible.

  9. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    PubMed

    Loughry, William J; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M; Oli, Madan K

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for ?, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for ? = 0.1, to 1.03 for ? = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when ? ? 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with ?, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of ?. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction. PMID:23844183

  10. Nature versus nurture: Predictability in low-temperature Ising dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, J.; Machta, J.; Newman, C. M.; Stein, D. L.

    2013-10-01

    Consider a dynamical many-body system with a random initial state subsequently evolving through stochastic dynamics. What is the relative importance of the initial state (“nature”) versus the realization of the stochastic dynamics (“nurture”) in predicting the final state? We examined this question for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet following an initial deep quench from T=? to T=0. We performed Monte Carlo studies on the overlap between “identical twins” raised in independent dynamical environments, up to size L=500. Our results suggest an overlap decaying with time as t-?h with ?h=0.22±0.02; the same exponent holds for a quench to low but nonzero temperature. This “heritability exponent” may equal the persistence exponent for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet, but the two differ more generally.

  11. Predicting the timing of dynamic events through sound: Bouncing balls.

    PubMed

    Gygi, Brian; Giordano, Bruno L; Shafiro, Valeriy; Kharkhurin, Anatoliy; Zhang, Peter Xinya

    2015-07-01

    Dynamic information in acoustical signals produced by bouncing objects is often used by listeners to predict the objects' future behavior (e.g., hitting a ball). This study examined factors that affect the accuracy of motor responses to sounds of real-world dynamic events. In experiment 1, listeners heard 2-5 bounces from a tennis ball, ping-pong, basketball, or wiffle ball, and would tap to indicate the time of the next bounce in a series. Across ball types and number of bounces, listeners were extremely accurate in predicting the correct bounce time (CT) with a mean prediction error of only 2.58% of the CT. Prediction based on a physical model of bouncing events indicated that listeners relied primarily on temporal cues when estimating the timing of the next bounce, and to a lesser extent on the loudness and spectral cues. In experiment 2, the timing of each bounce pattern was altered to correspond to the bounce timing pattern of another ball, producing stimuli with contradictory acoustic cues. Nevertheless, listeners remained highly accurate in their estimates of bounce timing. This suggests that listeners can adopt their estimates of bouncing-object timing based on acoustic cues that provide most veridical information about dynamic aspects of object behavior. PMID:26233044

  12. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  13. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations. PMID:26172749

  14. Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

    2009-01-01

    Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (?) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of ? to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

  15. Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

    2015-05-01

    We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

  16. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

    PubMed Central

    Christiansen-Jucht, Céline; Erguler, Kamil; Shek, Chee Yan; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Parham, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a “standard” model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors. PMID:26030468

  17. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival.

    PubMed

    Christiansen-Jucht, Céline; Erguler, Kamil; Shek, Chee Yan; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Parham, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a "standard" model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors. PMID:26030468

  18. Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

  19. Evolutionary Dynamics for Persistent Cooperation in Structured Populations

    E-print Network

    Li, Yan; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-01-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structu...

  20. pedagog: software for simulating eco-evolutionary population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Coombs, Jason A; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

    2010-05-01

    pedagog is a Windows program that can be used to determine power for, and validate inferences drawn from, eco-evolutionary studies. It models dynamics of multiple populations and their interactions through individual-based simulations while simultaneously recording genotype, pedigree and trait information at the individual level. pedagog also allows for specification of heritable traits, natural and sexual selection acting upon those traits, population sampling schemes and incorporation of genetic and demographic errors into the output. Overall, parameters can be specified for genetic diversity, demographics, mating design, genetic and demographic errors, individual growth models, trait heritability and selection, and output formatting. Demographic parameters can be either age or function based, and all parameters can be drawn from 12 statistical distributions where appropriate. Simulation results can be automatically formatted for 57 existing software programs to facilitate postsimulation analyses. pedagog is freely available for download at https://bcrc.bio.umass.edu/pedigreesoftware/. PMID:21565058

  1. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics. PMID:26201216

  2. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n?=?24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n?=?21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (FST ?=?0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI ?=?1.38) and KK (mean MOI ?=?1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (HE ?=?0.583 in KM and HE ?=?0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (IAS >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (IAS ?=?0.07 [P?=?0.0076] in KM, and IAS?=?-0.003 [P?=?0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

  3. Enhancing NMR Prediction for Organic Compounds Using Molecular Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Kwan, Eugene E; Liu, Richard Y

    2015-11-10

    NMR spectroscopy is a crucial tool in organic chemistry for the routine characterization of small molecules, structural elucidation of natural products, and study of reaction mechanisms. Although there is evidence that thermal motions strongly affect observed resonances, conventional predictions are performed only on stationary structures. Here we show that quasiclassical molecular dynamics provides a highly accurate and broadly applicable method for improving shielding predictions. Gas-phase values of the absolute shieldings of protons and carbons are predicted to nearly within experimental uncertainty, while the chemical shifts of large systems such as natural products are closely reproduced. Importantly, these results are obtained without the use of any empirical corrections. Our analysis suggests that the linear scaling factors currently employed are primarily a correction for vibrational effects. As a result, our method extends the reach of prediction methods to the study of molecules with unusual dynamics such as the iconic and controversial [18]annulene. Our predictions agree closely with experiment at both low and high temperatures and provide strong evidence that the equilibrium structure of [18]annulene is planar and aromatic. PMID:26574306

  4. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  5. Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2002-01-01

    A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

  6. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  7. Using Synchronization for Prediction of High-Dimensional Chaotic Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Adam B. Cohen; Bhargava Ravoori; Thomas E. Murphy; Rajarshi Roy

    2008-09-22

    We experimentally observe the nonlinear dynamics of an optoelectronic time-delayed feedback loop designed for chaotic communication using commercial fiber optic links, and we simulate the system using delay differential equations. We show that synchronization of a numerical model to experimental measurements provides a new way to assimilate data and forecast the future of this time-delayed high-dimensional system. For this system, which has a feedback time delay of 22 ns, we show that one can predict the time series for up to several delay periods, when the dynamics is about 15 dimensional.

  8. Phonon-Induced Population Dynamics and Intersystem Crossing in Nitrogen-Vacancy Centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldman, M. L.; Sipahigil, A.; Doherty, M. W.; Yao, N. Y.; Bennett, S. D.; Markham, M.; Twitchen, D. J.; Manson, N. B.; Kubanek, A.; Lukin, M. D.

    2015-04-01

    We report direct measurement of population dynamics in the excited state manifold of a nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center in diamond. We quantify the phonon-induced mixing rate and demonstrate that it can be completely suppressed at low temperatures. Further, we measure the intersystem crossing (ISC) rate for different excited states and develop a theoretical model that unifies the phonon-induced mixing and ISC mechanisms. We find that our model is in excellent agreement with experiment and that it can be used to predict unknown elements of the NV center's electronic structure. We discuss the model's implications for enhancing the NV center's performance as a room-temperature sensor.

  9. Prediction of human population responses to toxic compounds by a collaborative competition.

    PubMed

    Eduati, Federica; Mangravite, Lara M; Wang, Tao; Tang, Hao; Bare, J Christopher; Huang, Ruili; Norman, Thea; Kellen, Mike; Menden, Michael P; Yang, Jichen; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhong, Rui; Xiao, Guanghua; Xia, Menghang; Abdo, Nour; Kosyk, Oksana; Friend, Stephen; Dearry, Allen; Simeonov, Anton; Tice, Raymond R; Rusyn, Ivan; Wright, Fred A; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Xie, Yang; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio

    2015-09-01

    The ability to computationally predict the effects of toxic compounds on humans could help address the deficiencies of current chemical safety testing. Here, we report the results from a community-based DREAM challenge to predict toxicities of environmental compounds with potential adverse health effects for human populations. We measured the cytotoxicity of 156 compounds in 884 lymphoblastoid cell lines for which genotype and transcriptional data are available as part of the Tox21 1000 Genomes Project. The challenge participants developed algorithms to predict interindividual variability of toxic response from genomic profiles and population-level cytotoxicity data from structural attributes of the compounds. 179 submitted predictions were evaluated against an experimental data set to which participants were blinded. Individual cytotoxicity predictions were better than random, with modest correlations (Pearson's r < 0.28), consistent with complex trait genomic prediction. In contrast, predictions of population-level response to different compounds were higher (r < 0.66). The results highlight the possibility of predicting health risks associated with unknown compounds, although risk estimation accuracy remains suboptimal. PMID:26258538

  10. Population dynamics of a northern-adapted mammal: disentangling the influence of predation and climate change.

    PubMed

    Pokallus, John W; Pauli, Jonathan N

    2015-09-01

    Community structure and interspecific interactions are particularly vulnerable to rapidly changing climatic regimes. Recent changes in both climate and vertebrate community assemblages have created a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of two dynamic forces on population regulation. We examined the effects of warming winter conditions and the reestablishment of a previously extirpated predator, the fisher (Martes pennanti), on regulatory mechanisms in a northern-adapted mammal, the porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum), along their southern range boundary. Using a long-term (17-year) capture-recapture data set, we (1) quantified the impacts of climate change and increased fisher predation on the survival of adult porcupines at their regional southern terminus, (2) assessed recruitment (via both adult fecundity and juvenile survival) of porcupines, and (3) modeled the relative importance of predation and winter conditions on the demography and population growth rate (?). Severe winters and abundant predators interacted synergistically to reduce adult survivorship by as much as 44%, while expanding predator populations led to near reproductive failure among porcupines. Increasing predatory pressure, disruptions in this community module, and more frequent extreme winter weather events led to predicted extirpation within 50 years, whereas in the absence of predators, the population was viable. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding behind distributional shifts resulting from climate change and may be broadly relevant for predicting future distributional shifts in other northern-adapted mammalian species. PMID:26552263

  11. Measuring Predictability of Autonomous Network Transitions into Bursting Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Mofakham, Sima; Zochowski, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Understanding spontaneous transitions between dynamical modes in a network is of significant importance. These transitions may separate pathological and normal functions of the brain. In this paper, we develop a set of measures that, based on spatio-temporal features of network activity, predict autonomous network transitions from asynchronous to synchronous dynamics under various conditions. These metrics quantify spike-timing distributions within a narrow time window as a function of the relative location of the active neurons. We applied these metrics to investigate the properties of these transitions in excitatory-only and excitatory-and-inhibitory networks and elucidate how network topology, noise level, and cellular heterogeneity affect both the reliability and the timeliness of the predictions. The developed measures can be calculated in real time and therefore potentially applied in clinical situations. PMID:25855975

  12. Rational Prediction with Molecular Dynamics for Hit Identification

    PubMed Central

    Nichols, Sara E; Swift, Robert V; Amaro, Rommie E

    2012-01-01

    Although the motions of proteins are fundamental for their function, for pragmatic reasons, the consideration of protein elasticity has traditionally been neglected in drug discovery and design. This review details protein motion, its relevance to biomolecular interactions and how it can be sampled using molecular dynamics simulations. Within this context, two major areas of research in structure-based prediction that can benefit from considering protein flexibility, binding site detection and molecular docking, are discussed. Basic classification metrics and statistical analysis techniques, which can facilitate performance analysis, are also reviewed. With hardware and software advances, molecular dynamics in combination with traditional structure-based prediction methods can potentially reduce the time and costs involved in the hit identification pipeline. PMID:23110535

  13. Prediction of Platinum Prices Using Dynamically Weighted Mixture of Experts

    E-print Network

    Lubinsky, Baruch; Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2008-01-01

    Neural networks are powerful tools for classification and regression in static environments. This paper describes a technique for creating an ensemble of neural networks that adapts dynamically to changing conditions. The model separates the input space into four regions and each network is given a weight in each region based on its performance on samples from that region. The ensemble adapts dynamically by constantly adjusting these weights based on the current performance of the networks. The data set used is a collection of financial indicators with the goal of predicting the future platinum price. An ensemble with no weightings does not improve on the naive estimate of no weekly change; our weighting algorithm gives an average percentage error of 63% for twenty weeks of prediction.

  14. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burski?, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  15. Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

    2014-01-01

    Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

  16. Predictions versus measurements of turbocharger nonlinear dynamic response 

    E-print Network

    Rivadeneira, Juan Carlos

    2006-08-16

    ] The physical analysis of FRBs is a critical element on the study of the dynamics of TCs. A complete fluid film bearing model accurately predicting FRB performance characteristics, i.e. floating ring speed, lubricant film temperature and viscosity changes...-excited instability at the outer fluid film. The self-excited vibrations caused by the inner lubricant film are small in amplitude and disappear at shaft speeds above the system natural frequency. The stability analysis shows that the threshold speed...

  17. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  18. cologists studying population dynam-ics prefer not to bother with the possi-

    E-print Network

    White, Douglas R.

    between predator and prey cycles was completely `wrong' -- predators peaked when prey were at the minimum point (P1), prey will increase, but if Evolution in population dynamics Peter Turchin In their study of predator­prey cycles, investigators have assumed that they do not need to worry about evolution

  19. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

    PubMed

    Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-04-01

    Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. PMID:24115317

  20. Population dynamics and potential of fisheries stock enhancement: practical theory for assessment and policy analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lorenzen, Kai

    2005-01-01

    The population dynamics of fisheries stock enhancement, and its potential for generating benefits over and above those obtainable from optimal exploitation of wild stocks alone are poorly understood and highly controversial. I review pertinent knowledge of fish population biology, and extend the dynamic pool theory of fishing to stock enhancement by unpacking recruitment, incorporating regulation in the recruited stock, and accounting for biological differences between wild and hatchery fish. I then analyse the dynamics of stock enhancement and its potential role in fisheries management, using the candidate stock of North Sea sole as an example and considering economic as well as biological criteria. Enhancement through release of recruits or advanced juveniles is predicted to increase total yield and stock abundance, but reduce abundance of the naturally recruited stock component through compensatory responses or overfishing. Economic feasibility of enhancement is subject to strong constraints, including trade-offs between the costs of fishing and hatchery releases. Costs of hatchery fish strongly influence optimal policy, which may range from no enhancement at high cost to high levels of stocking and fishing effort at low cost. Release of genetically maladapted fish reduces the effectiveness of enhancement, and is most detrimental overall if fitness of hatchery fish is only moderately compromised. As a temporary measure for the rebuilding of depleted stocks, enhancement cannot substitute for effort limitation, and is advantageous as an auxiliary measure only if the population has been reduced to a very low proportion of its unexploited biomass. Quantitative analysis of population dynamics is central to the responsible use of stock enhancement in fisheries management, and the necessary tools are available. PMID:15713596

  1. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W.; Frank van Veen, F. J.; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem. PMID:26472251

  2. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  3. The Dynamics of Genetic Draft in Rapidly Adapting Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M.

    2013-01-01

    The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of “genetic draft” affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie’s original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald–Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation. PMID:24002646

  4. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W; Frank van Veen, F J; Gaston, Kevin J

    2015-01-01

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem. PMID:26472251

  5. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  6. Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall using dynamics-based indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, Noelia; Mohino, Elsa; Gaetani, Marco

    2015-07-01

    At decadal time scales, the capability of state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models in predicting the precipitation in Sahel is assessed. A set of 14 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is selected and two experiments are analysed, namely initialized decadal hindcasts and forced historical simulations. Considering the strong linkage of the atmospheric circulation signatures over West Africa with the rainfall variability, this study aims to investigate the potential of using wind fields for decadal predictions. Namely, a West African monsoon index (WAMI) is defined, based on the coherence of low (925 hPa) and high (200 hPa) troposphere wind fields, which accounts for the intensity of the monsoonal circulation. A combined empirical orthogonal functions analysis is applied to explore the wind fields' covariance modes, and a set of indices is defined on the basis of the identified patterns. The WAMI predictive skill is assessed by comparing WAMI from coupled models with WAMI from reanalysis products and with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) from observations. Results suggest that the predictive skill is highly model dependent and it is strongly related to the WAMI definition. In addition, hindcasts are more skilful than historical simulations in both deterministic and probability forecasts, which suggests an added value of initialization for decadal predictability. Moreover, coupled models are more skilful in predicting the observed SPI than the WAMI obtained from reanalysis. WAMI performance is also compared with decadal predictions from CMIP5 models based on a Sahelian precipitation index, and an improvement in predictive skill is observed in some models when WAMI is used. Therefore, we conclude that dynamics-based indices are potentially more effective for decadal prediction of precipitation in Sahel than precipitation-based indices for those models in which Sahel rainfall variability is not well simulated. We thus recommend a two-fold approach when testing the performance of models in predicting Sahel rainfall, based not only on rainfall but also on the dynamics of the West African monsoon.

  7. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are highly correlated to an immediate increase in range displacement between 5-day observations, suggesting that Svalbard reindeer use space opportunistically in winter, a behavioral trait that may buffer some of the negative effects of the expected climate change in the Arctic.

  8. Aftershock Prediction for High-Frequency Financial Markets' Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldovin, Fulvio; Camana, Francesco; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.; Zamparo, Marco

    The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.

  9. Two-Speed Gearbox Dynamic Simulation Predictions and Test Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewicki, David G.; DeSmidt, Hans; Smith, Edward C.; Bauman, Steven W.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic simulations and experimental validation tests were performed on a two-stage, two-speed gearbox as part of the drive system research activities of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Subsonics Rotary Wing Project. The gearbox was driven by two electromagnetic motors and had two electromagnetic, multi-disk clutches to control output speed. A dynamic model of the system was created which included a direct current electric motor with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) speed control, a two-speed gearbox with dual electromagnetically actuated clutches, and an eddy current dynamometer. A six degree-of-freedom model of the gearbox accounted for the system torsional dynamics and included gear, clutch, shaft, and load inertias as well as shaft flexibilities and a dry clutch stick-slip friction model. Experimental validation tests were performed on the gearbox in the NASA Glenn gear noise test facility. Gearbox output speed and torque as well as drive motor speed and current were compared to those from the analytical predictions. The experiments correlate very well with the predictions, thus validating the dynamic simulation methodologies.

  10. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread. PMID:26119322

  11. Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

    2015-01-01

    Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

  12. Population dynamics of an Ac-like transposable element in self- and cross-pollinating arabidopsis.

    PubMed Central

    Wright, S I; Le, Q H; Schoen, D J; Bureau, T E

    2001-01-01

    Theoretical models predict that the mating system should be an important factor driving the dynamics of transposable elements in natural populations due to differences in selective pressure on both element and host. We used a PCR-based approach to examine the abundance and levels of insertion polymorphism of Ac-III, a recently identified Ac-like transposon family, in natural populations of the selfing plant Arabidopsis thaliana and its close outcrossing relative, Arabidopsis lyrata. Although several insertions appeared to be ancient and shared between species, there is strong evidence for recent activity of this element family in both species. Sequences of the regions flanking insertions indicate that all Ac-III transposons segregating in natural populations are in noncoding regions and provide no evidence for local transposition events. Transposon display analysis suggests the presence of slightly higher numbers of insertion sites per individual but fewer total polymorphic insertions in the self-pollinating A. thaliana than A. lyrata. Element insertions appear to be segregating at significantly lower frequencies in A. lyrata than A. thaliana, which is consistent with a reduction in transposition rate, reduction in effective population size, or reduced efficacy of natural selection against element insertions in selfing populations. PMID:11454774

  13. Dynamic connectivity at rest predicts attention task performance.

    PubMed

    Madhyastha, Tara M; Askren, Mary K; Boord, Peter; Grabowski, Thomas J

    2015-02-01

    Consistent spatial patterns of coherent activity, representing large-scale networks, have been reliably identified in multiple populations. Most often, these studies have examined "stationary" connectivity. However, there is a growing recognition that there is a wealth of information in the time-varying dynamics of networks which has neural underpinnings, which changes with age and disease and that supports behavior. Using factor analysis of overlapping sliding windows across 25 participants with Parkinson disease (PD) and 21 controls (ages 41-86), we identify factors describing the covarying correlations of regions (dynamic connectivity) within attention networks and the default mode network, during two baseline resting-state and task runs. Cortical regions that support attention networks are affected early in PD, motivating the potential utility of dynamic connectivity as a sensitive way to characterize physiological disruption to these networks. We show that measures of dynamic connectivity are more reliable than comparable measures of stationary connectivity. Factors in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal task control network, obtained at rest, are consistently related to the alerting and orienting reaction time effects in the subsequent Attention Network Task. In addition, the same relationship between the same DAN factor and the alerting effect was present during tasks. Although reliable, dynamic connectivity was not invariant, and changes between factor scores across sessions were related to changes in accuracy. In summary, patterns of time-varying correlations among nodes in an intrinsic network have a stability that has functional relevance. PMID:25014419

  14. Dynamic Connectivity at Rest Predicts Attention Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    Askren, Mary K.; Boord, Peter; Grabowski, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Consistent spatial patterns of coherent activity, representing large-scale networks, have been reliably identified in multiple populations. Most often, these studies have examined “stationary” connectivity. However, there is a growing recognition that there is a wealth of information in the time-varying dynamics of networks which has neural underpinnings, which changes with age and disease and that supports behavior. Using factor analysis of overlapping sliding windows across 25 participants with Parkinson disease (PD) and 21 controls (ages 41–86), we identify factors describing the covarying correlations of regions (dynamic connectivity) within attention networks and the default mode network, during two baseline resting-state and task runs. Cortical regions that support attention networks are affected early in PD, motivating the potential utility of dynamic connectivity as a sensitive way to characterize physiological disruption to these networks. We show that measures of dynamic connectivity are more reliable than comparable measures of stationary connectivity. Factors in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal task control network, obtained at rest, are consistently related to the alerting and orienting reaction time effects in the subsequent Attention Network Task. In addition, the same relationship between the same DAN factor and the alerting effect was present during tasks. Although reliable, dynamic connectivity was not invariant, and changes between factor scores across sessions were related to changes in accuracy. In summary, patterns of time-varying correlations among nodes in an intrinsic network have a stability that has functional relevance. PMID:25014419

  15. Telomere length and dynamics predict mortality in a wild longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Emma L B; Burke, Terry A; Hammers, Martijn; Komdeur, Jan; Richardson, David S

    2013-01-01

    Explaining variation in life expectancy between individuals of the same age is fundamental to our understanding of population ecology and life history evolution. Variation in the length and rate of loss of the protective telomere chromosome caps has been linked to cellular lifespan. Yet, the extent to which telomere length and dynamics predict organismal lifespan in nature is still contentious. Using longitudinal samples taken from a closed population of Acrocephalus sechellensis (Seychelles warblers) studied for over 20 years, we describe the first study into life-long adult telomere dynamics (1-17 years) and their relationship to mortality under natural conditions (n = 204 individuals). We show that telomeres shorten with increasing age and body mass, and that shorter telomeres and greater rates of telomere shortening predicted future mortality. Our results provide the first clear and unambiguous evidence of a relationship between telomere length and mortality in the wild, and substantiate the prediction that telomere length and shortening rate can act as an indicator of biological age further to chronological age when exploring life history questions in natural conditions. PMID:23167566

  16. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  17. Behavioural models of population growth rates: implications for conservation and prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sutherland, William J; Norris, Ken

    2002-01-01

    Conservation biologists often wish to predict how vertebrate populations will respond to local or global changes in conditions such as those resulting from sea-level rise, deforestation, exploitation, genetically modified crops, global warming, human disturbance or from conservation activities. Predicting the consequences of such changes almost always requires understanding the population growth rate and the density dependence. Traditional means of directly measuring density dependence are often extremely difficult and have the problem that if the environment changes then it is necessary to remeasure the density dependence. We describe an alternative approach that does not require such long datasets and can be used to predict the density dependence under novel conditions. Game theory can be used to describe behavioural decisions that individuals make in response to interference, prey depletion, territorial behaviour or social dominance, and the resultant fitness consequences. It is then possible to predict how survival or reproductive output changes with population size. From this we can then make predictions about the responses of populations to environmental changes. We will illustrate how this can be applied to a range of species and a range of applied problems. PMID:12396518

  18. Population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle: A long-term study1 Lorenzo Marini1

    E-print Network

    Population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle: A long-term study1 2 Lorenzo Marini1 *, Åke Lindelöw;ABSTRACT16 Bark beetle population dynamics is thought to be primarily driven by bottom-up forces affecting evidences that predation and parasitism may play an important role in driving bark beetle population19

  19. 479BOOK REVIEW Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis.

    E-print Network

    Holyoak, Marcel

    479BOOK REVIEW Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. PETER TURCHIN and population ecol- ogy. In this remarkable book, Peter Turchin suggests a brave new synthesis for temporal temporal population dynamics. The book comes as a breath of fresh air on a topic that has (in my opinion

  20. Rhythmic Manipulation of Objects with Complex Dynamics: Predictability over Chaos

    PubMed Central

    Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J.; Sternad, Dagmar

    2014-01-01

    The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

  1. Predicting individual brain maturity using dynamic functional connectivity

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Jian; Chen, Shan-Guang; Hu, Dewen; Zeng, Ling-Li; Fan, Yi-Ming; Chen, Xiao-Ping; Shen, Hui

    2015-01-01

    Neuroimaging-based functional connectivity (FC) analyses have revealed significant developmental trends in specific intrinsic connectivity networks linked to cognitive and behavioral maturation. However, knowledge of how brain functional maturation is associated with FC dynamics at rest is limited. Here, we examined age-related differences in the temporal variability of FC dynamics with data publicly released by the Nathan Kline Institute (NKI; n = 183, ages 7–30) and showed that dynamic inter-region interactions can be used to accurately predict individual brain maturity across development. Furthermore, we identified a significant age-dependent trend underlying dynamic inter-network FC, including increasing variability of the connections between the visual network, default mode network (DMN) and cerebellum as well as within the cerebellum and DMN and decreasing variability within the cerebellum and between the cerebellum and DMN as well as the cingulo-opercular network. Overall, the results suggested significant developmental changes in dynamic inter-network interaction, which may shed new light on the functional organization of typical developmental brains. PMID:26236224

  2. BINOCS: The Dynamical Evolution of Binary Populations in Star Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Thompson, Benjamin A.

    2016-01-01

    Studies of the internal dynamics of stellar clusters is conducted primarily through N-Body simulations. A key input into these simulations is the fraction and mass distribution of binary stars. The internal dynamics of stellar clusters is conducted primarily through N-Body simulations. A key input into these simulations is the fraction and mass distribution of binary stars. Currently the N-body input relations are taken from "field" binary stars studies, but to truly understand how clustered environments evolve, binary data from within star clusters is needed, including detailed mass information. The detailed information on binaries masses, primary and secondary, in star clusters has been limited to bright high mass stars that are reachable using decade-long radial velocity surveys. We introduce a new binary detection method, Binary INformation from Open Clusters Using SEDs (BINOCS) that covers the wide mass range needed to improve cluster N-body simulation inputs and comparisons. Using newly-observed multi-wavelength photometric catalogs (0.3 - 8 microns) of the key open clusters with a range of ages, we can show that the BINOCS method determines accurate binary component masses for unresolved cluster binaries through comparison to available RV-based studies. Using this method, we present results on the dynamical evolution of binaries from 0.4 - 2.5 solar masses within nine prototypical clusters, spaning 30 Myr to 7 Gyr, and show how the binary populations evolve, and discover significant variations in the "dynamical age" of a clusters as a function of the stellar mass range studied.

  3. Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological?implications

    PubMed Central

    Pfister, Catherine A.

    1998-01-01

    Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation. PMID:9419355

  4. Population dynamics of a meiotic/mitotic expansion model for the fragile X syndrome

    SciTech Connect

    Ashley, A.E.; Sherman, S.L.

    1995-12-01

    A model to explain the mutational process and population dynamics of the fragile X syndrome is presented. The mutational mechanism was assumed to be a multi-pathway, multistep process. Expansion of CGG repeats was based on an underlying biological process and was assumed to occur at two time points: meiosis and early embryonic development (mitosis). Meiotic expansion was assumed to occur equally in oogenesis and spermatogenesis, while mitotic expansion was restricted to somatic, or constitutional, alleles of maternal origin. Testable hypotheses were predicted by this meiotic/mitotic model. First, parental origin of mutation is predicted to be associated with the risk of a woman to have a full-mutation child. Second, {open_quotes}contractions{close_quotes} seen in premutation male transmissions are predicted not to be true contractions in repeat size, but a consequence of the lack of mitotic expansion in paternally derived alleles. Third, a portion of full-mutation males should have full-mutation alleles in their sperm, due to the lack of complete selection against the full-mutation female. Fourth, a specific premutation-allele frequency distribution is predicted and differs from that based on models assuming only meiotic expansion. Last, it is predicted that {approximately}65 generations are required to achieve equilibrium, but this depends greatly on the expansion probabilities. 42 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value. PMID:23437313

  6. Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

  7. Dynamic modeling of predictive uncertainty by regression on absolute errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pianosi, F.; Raso, L.

    2012-03-01

    Uncertainty of hydrological forecasts represents valuable information for water managers and hydrologists. This explains the popularity of probabilistic models, which provide the entire distribution of the hydrological forecast. Nevertheless, many existing hydrological models are deterministic and provide point estimates of the variable of interest. Often, the model residual error is assumed to be homoscedastic; however, practical evidence shows that the hypothesis usually does not hold. In this paper we propose a simple and effective method to quantify predictive uncertainty of deterministic hydrological models affected by heteroscedastic residual errors. It considers the error variance as a hydrological process separate from that of the hydrological forecast and therefore predictable by an independent model. The variance model is built up using time series of model residuals, and under some conditions on the same residuals, it is applicable to any deterministic model. Tools for regression analysis applied to the time series of residual errors, or better their absolute values, combined with physical considerations of the hydrological features of the system can help to identify the most suitable input to the variance model and the most parsimonious model structure, including dynamic structure if needed. The approach has been called dynamic uncertainty modeling by regression on absolute errors and is demonstrated by application to two test cases, both affected by heteroscedasticity but with very different dynamics of uncertainty. Modeling results and comparison with other approaches, i.e., a constant, a cyclostationary, and a static model of the variance, confirm the validity of the proposed method.

  8. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  9. Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.

    PubMed

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  10. Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City - A Geospatial Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, M.; Muslim, M.

    2014-11-01

    The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971-2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by 214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated.

  11. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  12. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  13. Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

    PubMed Central

    Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

  14. Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

    PubMed

    Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-01

    In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph. PMID:26519794

  15. Prediction of lung function response for populations exposed to a wide range of ozone conditions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract Context: A human exposure-response (E-R) model that has previously been demonstrated to accurately predict population mean FEV1 response to ozone exposure has been proposed as the foundation for future risk assessments for ambient ozone. Objective: Fit the origi...

  16. Evolutionary population genetics of promoters: Predicting binding sites and functional phylogenies

    E-print Network

    Lässig, Michael

    Evolutionary population genetics of promoters: Predicting binding sites and functional phylogenies¨ lpicherstrasse 77, 50937 Cologne, Germany Edited by Tomoko Ohta, National Institute of Genetics, Mishima, Japan-binding sites in prokaryotes, using an empirically grounded model with point mutations and genetic drift

  17. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

  18. The Predictive Ability of IQ and Working Memory Scores in Literacy in an Adult Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alloway, Tracy Packiam; Gregory, David

    2013-01-01

    Literacy problems are highly prevalent and can persist into adulthood. Yet, the majority of research on the predictive nature of cognitive skills to literacy has primarily focused on development and adolescent populations. The aim of the present study was to extend existing research to investigate the roles of IQ scores and Working Memory…

  19. POPULATION EXPOSURES TO PARTICULATE MATTER: A COMPARISON OF EXPOSURE MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MEASUREMENT DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) is currently developing an integrated human exposure source-to-dose modeling system (HES2D). This modeling system will incorporate models that use a probabilistic approach to predict population exposures to environmental ...

  20. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    E-print Network

    Ben Shirt-Ediss; Kepa Ruiz-Mirazo; Fabio Mavelli; Ricard V. Solé

    2014-01-30

    In addressing the origins of Darwinian evolution, recent experimental work has been focussed on the discovery of simple physical effects which would provide a relevant selective advantage to protocells competing with each other for a limited supply of lipid. In particular, data coming from Szostak's lab suggest that the transition from simple prebiotically plausible lipid membranes to more complex and heterogeneous ones, closer to real biomembranes, may have been driven by changes in the fluidity of the membrane and its affinity for the available amphiphilic compound, which in turn would involve changes in vesicle growth dynamics. Earlier work from the same group reported osmotically-driven competition effects, whereby swelled vesicles grow at the expense of isotonic ones. In this paper, we try to expand on these experimental studies by providing a simple mathematical model of a population of competing vesicles, studied at the level of lipid kinetics. In silico simulations of the model are able to reproduce qualitatively and often quantitatively the experimentally reported competition effects in both scenarios. We also develop a method for numerically solving the equilibrium of a population of competing model vesicles, which is quite general and applicable to different vesicle kinetics schemes.

  1. 213 WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    2003-01-01

    213© WILDLIFE BIOLOGY · 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos americanus and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations Alejandro Gonzalez Voyer, Kirby G. Smith & Marco and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations. - Wildl. Biol. 9: 213-218. Native populations

  2. Dynamic Resource Allocation for Optimizing Population Diffusion Shan Xue Alan Fern Daniel Sheldon

    E-print Network

    Sheldon, Daniel R.

    growth of a species by purchasing and reserving land parcels to best support population spread-term population growth. While this work focuses on a par- ticular population diffusion process, it is importantDynamic Resource Allocation for Optimizing Population Diffusion Shan Xue Alan Fern Daniel Sheldon

  3. Cooperative Bacterial Growth Dynamics Predict the Evolution of Antibiotic Resistance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artemova, Tatiana; Gerardin, Ylaine; Hsin-Jung Li, Sophia; Gore, Jeff

    2011-03-01

    Since the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have been our primary weapon against bacterial infections. Unfortunately, bacteria can gain resistance to penicillin by acquiring the gene that encodes beta-lactamase, which inactivates the antibiotic. However, mutations in this gene are necessary to degrade the modern antibiotic cefotaxime. Understanding the conditions that favor the spread of these mutations is a challenge. Here we show that bacterial growth in beta-lactam antibiotics is cooperative and that the nature of this growth determines the conditions in which resistance evolves. Quantitative analysis of the growth dynamics predicts a peak in selection at very low antibiotic concentrations; competition between strains confirms this prediction. We also find significant selection at higher antibiotic concentrations, close to the minimum inhibitory concentrations of the strains. Our results argue that an understanding of the evolutionary forces that lead to antibiotic resistance requires a quantitative understanding of the evolution of cooperation in bacteria.

  4. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  5. Differences in the dynamics and potential production of impounded and unimpounded white sturgeon populations in the lower Columbia River

    SciTech Connect

    Beamesderfer, R.C.P.; Rien, T.A.; Nigro, A.A.

    1995-11-01

    White sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus were sampled in three lower Columbia River reservoirs from 1987 to 1991 to describe population dynamics, the ability of these stocks to sustain harvest, and differences among reservoir and unimpounded populations. Significant differences were observed among reservoirs in white sturgeon abundance, biomass, size composition, sex ratio, size of females at maturity, growth rate, condition factor, and rate of exploitation. No differences among reservoirs were detected in fecundity, natural mortality rate, or longevity, in part because of sampling difficulties. Recruitment rates and densities in reservoirs were inversely correlated with growth rate, condition factor, and size of females at maturity. Differences in population dynamics resulted in substantial differences in sustainable yields. Maximum yields per recruit were predicted at annual exploitation rates between 5 and 15%. Most characteristics of reservoir populations were less than or equal to optima reported for the unimpounded lower river; as a result, yield per recruit, reproductive potential per recruit, and the number of recruits were less in reservoirs than in the unimpounded river. Comparisons with pristine standing stocks suggest that the unimpounded river may approximate preimpoundment conditions for white sturgeon. We conclude that potential yield from impounded populations has been reduced by dam construction, which restricts populations to river segments that may not include conditions optimal for all life stages. Alternatives for enchancement of reservoir populations might include improved passage at dams, increased spring flow to improve spawning success, transplants from productive populations, hatchery supplementation, and more intensive harvest management. 54 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  6. Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

  7. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

    PubMed Central

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics. PMID:26308448

  8. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure

    PubMed Central

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.

    2015-01-01

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  9. Simple Biophysical Model Predicts Faster Accumulation of Hybrid Incompatibilities in Small Populations Under Stabilizing Selection

    PubMed Central

    Khatri, Bhavin S.; Goldstein, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Speciation is fundamental to the process of generating the huge diversity of life on Earth. However, we are yet to have a clear understanding of its molecular-genetic basis. Here, we examine a computational model of reproductive isolation that explicitly incorporates a map from genotype to phenotype based on the biophysics of protein–DNA binding. In particular, we model the binding of a protein transcription factor to a DNA binding site and how their independent coevolution, in a stabilizing fitness landscape, of two allopatric lineages leads to incompatibilities. Complementing our previous coarse-grained theoretical results, our simulations give a new prediction for the monomorphic regime of evolution that smaller populations should develop incompatibilities more quickly. This arises as (1) smaller populations have a greater initial drift load, as there are more sequences that bind poorly than well, so fewer substitutions are needed to reach incompatible regions of phenotype space, and (2) slower divergence when the population size is larger than the inverse of discrete differences in fitness. Further, we find longer sequences develop incompatibilities more quickly at small population sizes, but more slowly at large population sizes. The biophysical model thus represents a robust mechanism of rapid reproductive isolation for small populations and large sequences that does not require peak shifts or positive selection. Finally, we show that the growth of DMIs with time is quadratic for small populations, agreeing with Orr’s model, but nonpower law for large populations, with a form consistent with our previous theoretical results. PMID:26434721

  10. Simple Biophysical Model Predicts Faster Accumulation of Hybrid Incompatibilities in Small Populations Under Stabilizing Selection.

    PubMed

    Khatri, Bhavin S; Goldstein, Richard A

    2015-12-01

    Speciation is fundamental to the process of generating the huge diversity of life on Earth. However, we are yet to have a clear understanding of its molecular-genetic basis. Here, we examine a computational model of reproductive isolation that explicitly incorporates a map from genotype to phenotype based on the biophysics of protein-DNA binding. In particular, we model the binding of a protein transcription factor to a DNA binding site and how their independent coevolution, in a stabilizing fitness landscape, of two allopatric lineages leads to incompatibilities. Complementing our previous coarse-grained theoretical results, our simulations give a new prediction for the monomorphic regime of evolution that smaller populations should develop incompatibilities more quickly. This arises as (1) smaller populations have a greater initial drift load, as there are more sequences that bind poorly than well, so fewer substitutions are needed to reach incompatible regions of phenotype space, and (2) slower divergence when the population size is larger than the inverse of discrete differences in fitness. Further, we find longer sequences develop incompatibilities more quickly at small population sizes, but more slowly at large population sizes. The biophysical model thus represents a robust mechanism of rapid reproductive isolation for small populations and large sequences that does not require peak shifts or positive selection. Finally, we show that the growth of DMIs with time is quadratic for small populations, agreeing with Orr's model, but nonpower law for large populations, with a form consistent with our previous theoretical results. PMID:26434721

  11. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

    PubMed Central

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

  12. Modelling the impact of marine reserves on a population with depensatory dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, Matthew H; Kim, Peter S

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we use a spatially implicit, stage-structured model to evaluate marine reserve effectiveness for a fish population exhibiting depensatory (strong Allee) effects in its dynamics. We examine the stability and sensitivity of the equilibria of the modelled system with regards to key system parameters and find that for a reasonable set of parameters, populations can be protected from a collapse if a small percentage of the total area is set aside in reserves. Furthermore, the overall abundance of the population is predicted to achieve a maximum at a certain ratio A of reserve area to fished area, which depends heavily on the other system parameters such as the net export rate of fish from the marine reserves to the fished areas. This finding runs contrary to the contested "equivalence at best" result when comparing fishery management through traditional catch or effort control and management through marine reserves. Lastly, we analyse the problem from a bioeconomics perspective by computing the optimal harvesting policy using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, which suggests that the value for A which maximizes the optimal equilibrium fishery yield also maximizes population abundance when the cost per unit harvest is constant, but can increase substantially when the cost per unit harvest increases with the area being harvested. PMID:25124763

  13. Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, Anders; Sornette, Didier

    2001-05-01

    Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occurring at the same critical time 2052±10 signaling an abrupt transition to a new regime. The degree of abruptness can be infered from the fact that the maximum of the world population growth rate was reached in 1970, i.e., about 80 years before the predicted singular time, corresponding to approximately 4% of the studied time interval over which the acceleration is documented. This rounding-off of the finite-time singularity is probably due to a combination of well-known finite-size effects and friction and suggests that we have already entered the transition region to a new regime. As theoretical support, a multivariate analysis coupling population, capital, R&D and technology shows that a dramatic acceleration in the population growth during most of the timespan can occur even though the isolated dynamics do not exhibit it. Possible scenarios for the cross-over and the new regime are discussed.

  14. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    ?erná, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  15. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    PubMed Central

    Ameixa, Olga M. C. C.; Messelink, Gerben J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator – one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

  16. Dynamics of Populations of Planetary Systems (IAU C197)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

    2005-05-01

    1. Resonances and stability of extra-solar planetary systems C. Beaugé, N. Callegari, S. Ferraz-Mello and T. A. Michtchenko; 2. Formation, migration, and stability of extrasolar planetary systems Fred C. Adams; 3. Dynamical evolution of extrasolar planetary systems Ji-Lin Zhou and Yi-Sui Sun; 4. Dynamics of planetesimals: the role of two-body relaxation Eiichiro Kokubo; 5. Fitting orbits Andrzej J. Maciejewski, Krzysztof Gozdziewski and Szymon Kozlowski; 6. The secular planetary three body problem revisited Jacques Henrard and Anne-Sophie Libert; 7. Dynamics of extrasolar systems at the 5/2 resonance: application to 47 UMa Dionyssia Psychoyos and John D. Hadjidemetriou; 8. Our solar system as model for exosolar planetary systems Rudolf Dvorak, Áron Süli and Florian Freistetter; 9. Planetary motion in double stars: the influence of the secondary Elke Pilat-Lohinger; 10. Planetary orbits in double stars: influence of the binary's orbital eccentricity Daniel Benest and Robert Gonczi; 11. Astrometric observations of 51 Peg and Gliese 623 at Pulkovo observatory with 65 cm refractor N. A. Shakht; 12. Observations of 61 Cyg at Pulkovo Denis L. Gorshanov, N. A. Shakht, A. A. Kisselev and E. V. Poliakow; 13. Formation of the solar system by instability Evgeny Griv and Michael Gedalin; 14. Behaviour of a two-planetary system on a cosmogonic time-scale Konstantin V. Kholshevnikov and Eduard D. Kuznetsov; 15. Boundaries of the habitable zone: unifying dynamics, astrophysics, and astrobiology Milan M. Cirkovic; 16. Asteroid proper elements: recent computational progress Fernando Roig and Cristian Beaugé; 17. Asteroid family classification from very large catalogues Anne Lemaitre; 18. Non-gravitational perturbations and evolution of the asteroid main belt David Vokrouhlicky, M. Broz and W. F. Bottke, D. Nesvorny and A. Morbidelli; 19. Diffusion in the asteroid belt Harry Varvoglis; 20. Accurate model for the Yarkovsky effect David Capek and David Vokrouhlicky; 21. The population of asteroids in the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter revised Miroslav Broz, D. Vokrouhlicky, F. Roig, D. Nesvorny, W. F. Bottke and A. Morbidelli; 22. On the reliability of computation of maximum Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents for asteroids Zoran Knezevic and Slobodan Ninkovic; 23. Nekhoroshev stability estimates for different models of the Trojan asteroids Christos Efthymiopoulos; 24. The role of the resonant 'stickiness' in the dynamical evolution of Jupiter family comets A. Alvarez-Canda and F. Roig; 25. Regimes of stability and scaling relations for the removal time in the asteroid belt: a simple kinetic model and numerical tests Mihailo Cubrovic; 26. Virtual asteroids and virtual impactors Andrea Milani; 27. Asteroid population models Alessandro Morbidelli; 28. Linking Very Large Telescope asteroid observations M. Granvik, K. Muinonen, J. Virtanen, M. Delbó, L. Saba, G. De Sanctis, R. Morbidelli, A. Cellino and E. Tedesco; 29. Collision orbits and phase transition for 2004 AS1 at discovery Jenni Virtanen, K. Muinonen, M. Granvik and T. Laakso; 30. The size of collision solutions in orbital elements space G. B. Valsecchi, A. Rossi, A. Milani and S. R. Chesley; 31. Very short arc orbit determination: the case of asteroid 2004 FU162 Steven R. Chesley; 32. Nonlinear impact monitoring: 2-dimensional sampling Giacomo Tommei; 33. Searching for gravity assisted trajectories to accessible near-Earth asteroids Stefan Berinde; 34. KLENOT - Near Earth and other unusual objects observations Michal Kocer, Jana Tichá and M. Tichy; 35. Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System Hans Rickman; 36. Nongravitational Accelerations on Comets Steven R. Chesley and Donald K. Yeomans; 37. Interaction of planetesimals with the giant planets and the shaping of the trans-Neptunian belt Harold F. Levison and Alessandro Morbidelli; 38. Transport of comets to the outer p

  17. Dynamical Phenotyping: Using Temporal Analysis of Clinically Collected Physiologic Data to Stratify Populations

    PubMed Central

    Albers, D. J.; Elhadad, Noémie; Tabak, E.; Perotte, A.; Hripcsak, George

    2014-01-01

    Using glucose time series data from a well measured population drawn from an electronic health record (EHR) repository, the variation in predictability of glucose values quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) was explained using a mechanistic endocrine model and manual and automated review of written patient records. The results suggest that predictability of glucose varies with health state where the relationship (e.g., linear or inverse) depends on the source of the acuity. It was found that on a fine scale in parameter variation, the less insulin required to process glucose, a condition that correlates with good health, the more predictable glucose values were. Nevertheless, the most powerful effect on predictability in the EHR subpopulation was the presence or absence of variation in health state, specifically, in- and out-of-control glucose versus in-control glucose. Both of these results are clinically and scientifically relevant because the magnitude of glucose is the most commonly used indicator of health as opposed to glucose dynamics, thus providing for a connection between a mechanistic endocrine model and direct insight to human health via clinically collected data. PMID:24933368

  18. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    PubMed Central

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-01-01

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

  19. Nonlinear dynamical modeling and prediction of the terrestrial magnetospheric activity

    SciTech Connect

    Vassiliadis, D.

    1992-01-01

    The irregular activity of the magnetosphere results from its complex internal dynamics as well as the external influence of the solar wind. The dominating self-organization of the magnetospheric plasma gives rise to repetitive, large-scale coherent behavior manifested in phenomena such as the magnetic substorm. Based on the nonlinearity of the global dynamics this dissertation examines the magnetosphere as a nonlinear dynamical system using time series analysis techniques. Initially the magnetospheric activity is modeled in terms of an autonomous system. A dimension study shows that its observed time series is self-similar, but the correlation dimension is high. The implication of a large number of degrees of freedom is confirmed by other state space techniques such as Poincare sections and search for unstable periodic orbits. At the same time a stability study of the time series in terms of Lyapunov exponents suggests that the series is not chaotic. The absence of deterministic chaos is supported by the low predictive capability of the autonomous model. Rather than chaos, it is an external input which is largely responsible for the irregularity of the magnetospheric activity. In fact, the external driving is so strong that the above state space techniques give results for magnetospheric and solar wind time series that are at least qualitatively similar. Therefore the solar wind input has to be included in a low-dimensional nonautonomous model. Indeed it is shown that such a model can reproduce the observed magnetospheric behavior up to 80-90 percent. The characteristic coefficients of the model show little variation depending on the external disturbance. The impulse response is consistent with earlier results of linear prediction filters. The model can be easily extended to contain nonlinear features of the magnetospheric activity and in particular the loading-unloading behavior of substorms.

  20. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  1. Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holforty, Wendy L. (Inventor); Powell, J. David (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

  2. Predicting the Lifetime of Dynamic Networks Experiencing Persistent Random Attacks.

    PubMed

    Podobnik, Boris; Lipic, Tomislav; Horvatic, Davor; Majdandzic, Antonio; Bishop, Steven R; Eugene Stanley, H

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is one of the remaining challenges in network science. Due to lack of knowledge about the underlying stochastic processes controlling critical transitions, it is widely considered difficult to determine the location of critical points for real-world networks, and it is even more difficult to predict the time at which these potentially catastrophic failures occur. We analyse a class of decaying dynamic networks experiencing persistent failures in which the magnitude of the overall failure is quantified by the probability that a potentially permanent internal failure will occur. When the fraction of active neighbours is reduced to a critical threshold, cascading failures can trigger a total network failure. For this class of network we find that the time to network failure, which is equivalent to network lifetime, is inversely dependent upon the magnitude of the failure and logarithmically dependent on the threshold. We analyse how permanent failures affect network robustness using network lifetime as a measure. These findings provide new methodological insight into system dynamics and, in particular, of the dynamic processes of networks. We illustrate the network model by selected examples from biology, and social science. PMID:26387609

  3. Predicting the Lifetime of Dynamic Networks Experiencing Persistent Random Attacks

    PubMed Central

    Podobnik, Boris; Lipic, Tomislav; Horvatic, Davor; Majdandzic, Antonio; Bishop, Steven R.; Eugene Stanley, H.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is one of the remaining challenges in network science. Due to lack of knowledge about the underlying stochastic processes controlling critical transitions, it is widely considered difficult to determine the location of critical points for real-world networks, and it is even more difficult to predict the time at which these potentially catastrophic failures occur. We analyse a class of decaying dynamic networks experiencing persistent failures in which the magnitude of the overall failure is quantified by the probability that a potentially permanent internal failure will occur. When the fraction of active neighbours is reduced to a critical threshold, cascading failures can trigger a total network failure. For this class of network we find that the time to network failure, which is equivalent to network lifetime, is inversely dependent upon the magnitude of the failure and logarithmically dependent on the threshold. We analyse how permanent failures affect network robustness using network lifetime as a measure. These findings provide new methodological insight into system dynamics and, in particular, of the dynamic processes of networks. We illustrate the network model by selected examples from biology, and social science. PMID:26387609

  4. Predicting the Lifetime of Dynamic Networks Experiencing Persistent Random Attacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podobnik, Boris; Lipic, Tomislav; Horvatic, Davor; Majdandzic, Antonio; Bishop, Steven R.; Eugene Stanley, H.

    2015-09-01

    Estimating the critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is one of the remaining challenges in network science. Due to lack of knowledge about the underlying stochastic processes controlling critical transitions, it is widely considered difficult to determine the location of critical points for real-world networks, and it is even more difficult to predict the time at which these potentially catastrophic failures occur. We analyse a class of decaying dynamic networks experiencing persistent failures in which the magnitude of the overall failure is quantified by the probability that a potentially permanent internal failure will occur. When the fraction of active neighbours is reduced to a critical threshold, cascading failures can trigger a total network failure. For this class of network we find that the time to network failure, which is equivalent to network lifetime, is inversely dependent upon the magnitude of the failure and logarithmically dependent on the threshold. We analyse how permanent failures affect network robustness using network lifetime as a measure. These findings provide new methodological insight into system dynamics and, in particular, of the dynamic processes of networks. We illustrate the network model by selected examples from biology, and social science.

  5. The key role of nutrition in controlling human population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Duncan, C J; Scott, S

    2004-12-01

    The early hominids and their successors, the nomadic hunter-gatherers, were evolutionarily adapted to an omnivorous diet. Their food was well balanced nutritionally and they acquired adequate supplies with relatively little expenditure of energy. The complete change to a fixed agricultural lifestyle (the Neolithic revolution) took place only some 12 000 years ago and was the most momentous event in human history. Being tied to the land that they worked led eventually to the city states and the great civilisations of history, which brought with them wars and epidemics of infectious diseases. Much more serious were the insidious effects of the new cereal-based diet which persisted until the twentieth century. Not only was it labour intensive, but also for the bulk of the population it was often deficient in vitamins, minerals and energy, particularly at certain times of the year. Time-series analysis reveals a regular short wavelength oscillation in the grain supply that persisted for at least 350 years and dominated the population dynamics of pre-industrial England. In addition to reducing fertility, it acted primarily via its effects on the nutrition of the pregnant woman. Malnutrition during one of the critical trimesters of pregnancy could have far-reaching effects not only on the health of the fetus and neonate but also on the illnesses of later, adult life. These consequences were insidiously and inevitably carried forward to the subsequent generations. Girls who were born with a low birth weight produced daughters and granddaughters of low birth weight, irrespective of their nutrition during childhood. These intergenerational, knock-on effects established a vicious circle from which there was little chance of escape. PMID:19079924

  6. Population Dynamics of a Salmonella Lytic Phage and Its Host: Implications of the Host Bacterial Growth Rate in Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Sílvio B.; Carvalho, Carla; Azeredo, Joana; Ferreira, Eugénio C.

    2014-01-01

    The prevalence and impact of bacteriophages in the ecology of bacterial communities coupled with their ability to control pathogens turn essential to understand and predict the dynamics between phage and bacteria populations. To achieve this knowledge it is essential to develop mathematical models able to explain and simulate the population dynamics of phage and bacteria. We have developed an unstructured mathematical model using delay-differential equations to predict the interactions between a broad-host-range Salmonella phage and its pathogenic host. The model takes into consideration the main biological parameters that rule phage-bacteria interactions likewise the adsorption rate, latent period, burst size, bacterial growth rate, and substrate uptake rate, among others. The experimental validation of the model was performed with data from phage-interaction studies in a 5 L bioreactor. The key and innovative aspect of the model was the introduction of variations in the latent period and adsorption rate values that are considered as constants in previous developed models. By modelling the latent period as a normal distribution of values and the adsorption rate as a function of the bacterial growth rate it was possible to accurately predict the behaviour of the phage-bacteria population. The model was shown to predict simulated data with a good agreement with the experimental observations and explains how a lytic phage and its host bacteria are able to coexist. PMID:25051248

  7. Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Harun A.; Hendon, Harry H.; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Alves, Oscar

    2011-02-01

    Predictions of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are assessed using a 10-member ensemble of hindcasts from POAMA, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal prediction system. The ensemble of hindcasts was initialised from observed atmosphere and ocean initial conditions on the first of each month during 1980-2006. The MJO is diagnosed using the Wheeler-Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which involves projection of daily data onto the leading pair of eigenmodes from an analysis of zonal winds at 200 and 850 hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) averaged about the equator. Forecasts of the two component (RMM1 and RMM2) index are quantitatively compared with observed behaviour derived from NCEP reanalyses and satellite OLR using the bivariate correlation skill, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and measures of the MJO amplitude and phase error. Comparison is also made with a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) prediction model of RMM as a benchmark. Using the full hindcast set, we find that the MJO can be predicted with the POAMA ensemble out to about 21 days as measured by the bivariate correlation exceeding 0.5 and the bivariate RMSE remaining below ~1.4 (which is the value for a climatological forecast). The VAR model, by comparison, drops to a correlation of 0.5 by about 12 days. The prediction limit from POAMA increases by less than 2 days for times when the MJO has large initial amplitude, and has little sensitivity to the initial phase of the MJO. The VAR model, on the other hand, shows a somewhat larger increase in skill for times of strong MJO variability and has greater sensitivity to initial phase, with lower skill for times when MJO convection is developing in the Indian Ocean. The sensitivity to season is, however, greater for POAMA, with maximum skill occurring in the December-January-February season and minimum skill in June-July-August. Examination of the MJO amplitudes shows that individual POAMA members have slightly above observed amplitude after a spin-up of about 10 days, whereas examination of the MJO phase error reveals that the model has a consistent tendency to propagate the MJO slightly slower than observed. Finally, an estimate of potential predictability of the MJO in POAMA hindcasts suggests that actual MJO prediction skill may be further improved through continued development of the dynamical prediction system.

  8. Modeling the dynamics of natural rotifer populations: phase-parametric analysis

    E-print Network

    Faina S. Berezovskaya; Georgy P. Karev; Terry W. Snell

    2005-05-24

    A model of the dynamics of natural rotifer populations is described as a discrete nonlinear map depending on three parameters, which reflect characteristics of the population and environment. Model dynamics and their change by variation of these parameters were investigated by methods of bifurcation theory. A phase-parametric portrait of the model was constructed and domains of population persistence (stable equilibrium, periodic and a-periodic oscillations of population size) as well as population extinction were identified and investigated. The criteria for population persistence and approaches to determining critical parameter values are described. The results identify parameter values that lead to population extinction under various environmental conditions. They further illustrate that the likelihood of extinction can be substantially increased by small changes in environmental quality, which shifts populations into new dynamical regimes.

  9. Bioaccumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls by zebra mussel populations predicted on the basis of bioenergetics

    SciTech Connect

    Yankovich, T.

    1995-12-31

    Hydrophobic organic contaminants, such as PCBs, partition between several phases in aquatic environments. In order to predict contaminant partitioning and flux rates between aquatic biota and other environmental phases, it is necessary to have a basic understanding of the physico-chemical properties characteristic of the contaminant of interest, in addition to exposure rates of organisms to various contaminated phases. Exposure regimes are often dictated by food availability and corresponding feeding rates necessary to meet organism energetic requirements. Therefore, a model coupling zebra mussel bioenergetics and predicted PCB bioaccumulation has been constructed to assess the impact of zebra mussel populations on organic contaminant transfer in freshwater systems. The potential impact of mussel populations on organic contaminant transfer and energy flow will be discussed.

  10. DYNAMICS OF NEMATODE POPULATIONS IN CACAO GROWN UNDER TRADIONALLY SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT IN PERUVIAN AMAZON

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nature of crops and management systems greatly influences population dynamics of parasitic and nonparasitic nematodes in soil. An experiment was undertaken at Tropical Crop Research institute (ICT), Tarapoto, Peru to assess the population dynamics of nematodes in a Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)-Banana ...

  11. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Cardinale, Bradley J.

    Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics Konrad J. Kulacki1 how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across biomass achieved by species in culture (p = 0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles

  12. Original Research Article Climatic Variability and the Population Dynamics of Historical

    E-print Network

    Helle, Samuli

    Original Research Article Climatic Variability and the Population Dynamics of Historical Hunter­Gatherers shaped by hunter­gatherer lifestyle relying on diverse plant and animal food sources, it is also important to understand how climate affected the population dynamics of hunter­gatherers. We thus studied

  13. [Reconstruction of Polytrichum juniperinum population dynamics in a mire of China].

    PubMed

    Bu, Zhaojun; Yang, Yunfei; Wang, Shengzhong; Wang, Xianwei; Dai, Dan

    2005-11-01

    By using 'history reconstruction method', this paper studied the dynamics of two Polytrichum juniperinum populations with and without sporophytes. The population with sporophyte production experienced a dynamic process from increase to stabilization, while that without sporophyte production experienced a process from increase to decrease. Before 2003, both the increase rate and the birth rate of two populations decreased continuously, with the death rate showing the tendency from decrease to a continuous increase. The advantages of 'history reconstruction method' in studying population dynamics were proved and discussed. PMID:16471372

  14. Mixtures of Predictive Linear Gaussian Models for Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamical Systems

    E-print Network

    Baveja, Satinder Singh

    or the trajectory of a ball bouncing. Traditional dynam- ical systems are modeled using the concept of state, whichMixtures of Predictive Linear Gaussian Models for Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamical Systems David- proves upon traditional linear dynamical system mod- els by using a predictive representation of state

  15. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

    1999-01-01

    Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

  16. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Kulacki, Konrad J.; Cardinale, Bradley J.

    2012-01-01

    To make predictions about the possible effects of nanomaterials across environments and taxa, toxicity testing must incorporate not only a variety of organisms and endpoints, but also an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie nanoparticle toxicity. Here, we report the results of a laboratory experiment in which we examined how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across a range of freshwater algae. We exposed 10 of the most common species of North American freshwater pelagic algae (phytoplankton) to five increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 (ranging from controls to 300 mg n-TiO2 L?1). We then examined the effects of n-TiO2 on the population growth rates and biomass production of each algal species over a period of 25 days. On average, increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 had no significant effects on algal growth rates (p?=?0.376), even though there was considerable species-specific variation in responses. In contrast, exposure to n-TiO2 tended to increase maximum biomass achieved by species in culture (p?=?0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles could influence certain aspects of population growth of freshwater phytoplankton, though effects are unlikely at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:23071735

  17. Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Wesolowski, Amy; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Eagle, Nathan; Kombich, Janeth; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Lessler, Justin; Tatem, Andrew J.; Buckee, Caroline O.

    2015-01-01

    Changing patterns of human aggregation are thought to drive annual and multiannual outbreaks of infectious diseases, but the paucity of data about travel behavior and population flux over time has made this idea difficult to test quantitatively. Current measures of human mobility, especially in low-income settings, are often static, relying on approximate travel times, road networks, or cross-sectional surveys. Mobile phone data provide a unique source of information about human travel, but the power of these data to describe epidemiologically relevant changes in population density remains unclear. Here we quantify seasonal travel patterns using mobile phone data from nearly 15 million anonymous subscribers in Kenya. Using a rich data source of rubella incidence, we show that patterns of population travel (fluxes) inferred from mobile phone data are predictive of disease transmission and improve significantly on standard school term time and weather covariates. Further, combining seasonal and spatial data on travel from mobile phone data allows us to characterize seasonal fluctuations in risk across Kenya and produce dynamic importation risk maps for rubella. Mobile phone data therefore offer a valuable previously unidentified source of data for measuring key drivers of seasonal epidemics. PMID:26283349

  18. Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

  19. Effects of Initial Nematode Density on Population Dynamics of Globodera rostochiensis on Resistant and Susceptible Potatoes

    PubMed Central

    LaMondia, J. A.; Brodie, B. B.

    1986-01-01

    The influence of resistant and susceptible potato cultivars on Globodera rostochiensis population density changes was studied at different nematode inoculum levels (Pi) in the greenhouse and field. Soil in which one susceptible and two resistant cultivars were grown and fallow soil in pots was infested with cysts to result in densities of 0.04-75 eggs/cm³ soil. A resistant cultivar was grown in an infested field with Pi of 0.7-16.7 eggs/cm³ soil. Pi was positively correlated with decline of soil population densities due to hatch where resistant potatoes were grown in the greenhouse and in the field but not in fallow soil. However, Pi was not correlated with in vitro hatch of G. rostochiensis cysts in water or potato root diffusate. Under continuous culture o f a resistant cultivar, viable eggs per cyst declined 60-90% per plant growth cycle (4 weeks) and the number of cysts containing viable eggs had decreased by 77% after five cycles. The rate of G. rostochiensis reproduction on both resistant and susceptible cultivars was negatively correlated with Pi. These data were used to predict the effect of resistant and susceptible potato cultivars on G. rostochiensis soil population dynamics. PMID:19294158

  20. Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Baseline Control Law: Architecture and Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    A model reference dynamic inversion control law has been developed to provide a baseline control law for research into adaptive elements and other advanced flight control law components. This controller has been implemented and tested in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the simulation results show excellent handling qualities throughout the limited flight envelope. A simple angular momentum formulation was chosen because it can be included in the stability proofs for many basic adaptive theories, such as model reference adaptive control. Many design choices and implementation details reflect the requirements placed on the system by the nonlinear flight environment and the desire to keep the system as basic as possible to simplify the addition of the adaptive elements. Those design choices are explained, along with their predicted impact on the handling qualities.

  1. Parsimonious description for predicting high-dimensional dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Hirata, Yoshito; Takeuchi, Tomoya; Horai, Shunsuke; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    When we observe a system, we often cannot observe all its variables and may have some of its limited measurements. Under such a circumstance, delay coordinates, vectors made of successive measurements, are useful to reconstruct the states of the whole system. Although the method of delay coordinates is theoretically supported for high-dimensional dynamical systems, practically there is a limitation because the calculation for higher-dimensional delay coordinates becomes more expensive. Here, we propose a parsimonious description of virtually infinite-dimensional delay coordinates by evaluating their distances with exponentially decaying weights. This description enables us to predict the future values of the measurements faster because we can reuse the calculated distances, and more accurately because the description naturally reduces the bias of the classical delay coordinates toward the stable directions. We demonstrate the proposed method with toy models of the atmosphere and real datasets related to renewable energy. PMID:26510518

  2. Parsimonious description for predicting high-dimensional dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, Yoshito; Takeuchi, Tomoya; Horai, Shunsuke; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-10-01

    When we observe a system, we often cannot observe all its variables and may have some of its limited measurements. Under such a circumstance, delay coordinates, vectors made of successive measurements, are useful to reconstruct the states of the whole system. Although the method of delay coordinates is theoretically supported for high-dimensional dynamical systems, practically there is a limitation because the calculation for higher-dimensional delay coordinates becomes more expensive. Here, we propose a parsimonious description of virtually infinite-dimensional delay coordinates by evaluating their distances with exponentially decaying weights. This description enables us to predict the future values of the measurements faster because we can reuse the calculated distances, and more accurately because the description naturally reduces the bias of the classical delay coordinates toward the stable directions. We demonstrate the proposed method with toy models of the atmosphere and real datasets related to renewable energy.

  3. Parsimonious description for predicting high-dimensional dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hirata, Yoshito; Takeuchi, Tomoya; Horai, Shunsuke; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    When we observe a system, we often cannot observe all its variables and may have some of its limited measurements. Under such a circumstance, delay coordinates, vectors made of successive measurements, are useful to reconstruct the states of the whole system. Although the method of delay coordinates is theoretically supported for high-dimensional dynamical systems, practically there is a limitation because the calculation for higher-dimensional delay coordinates becomes more expensive. Here, we propose a parsimonious description of virtually infinite-dimensional delay coordinates by evaluating their distances with exponentially decaying weights. This description enables us to predict the future values of the measurements faster because we can reuse the calculated distances, and more accurately because the description naturally reduces the bias of the classical delay coordinates toward the stable directions. We demonstrate the proposed method with toy models of the atmosphere and real datasets related to renewable energy. PMID:26510518

  4. Dynamical recurrent neural networks--towards environmental time series prediction.

    PubMed

    Aussem, A; Murtagh, F; Sarazin, M

    1995-06-01

    Dynamical Recurrent Neural Networks (DRNN) (Aussem 1995a) are a class of fully recurrent networks obtained by modeling synapses as autoregressive filters. By virtue of their internal dynamic, these networks approximate the underlying law governing the time series by a system of nonlinear difference equations of internal variables. They therefore provide history-sensitive forecasts without having to be explicitly fed with external memory. The model is trained by a local and recursive error propagation algorithm called temporal-recurrent-backpropagation. The efficiency of the procedure benefits from the exponential decay of the gradient terms backpropagated through the adjoint network. We assess the predictive ability of the DRNN model with meterological and astronomical time series recorded around the candidate observation sites for the future VLT telescope. The hope is that reliable environmental forecasts provided with the model will allow the modern telescopes to be preset, a few hours in advance, in the most suited instrumental mode. In this perspective, the model is first appraised on precipitation measurements with traditional nonlinear AR and ARMA techniques using feedforward networks. Then we tackle a complex problem, namely the prediction of astronomical seeing, known to be a very erratic time series. A fuzzy coding approach is used to reduce the complexity of the underlying laws governing the seeing. Then, a fuzzy correspondence analysis is carried out to explore the internal relationships in the data. Based on a carefully selected set of meteorological variables at the same time-point, a nonlinear multiple regression, termed nowcasting (Murtagh et al. 1993, 1995), is carried out on the fuzzily coded seeing records. The DRNN is shown to outperform the fuzzy k-nearest neighbors method. PMID:7496587

  5. Revised October 9, 2006 Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics and

    E-print Network

    Chen, Tsuhan

    Revised October 9, 2006 Poverty and Economic Growth: The Impact of Population Dynamics Opening 08:30 to 08:40 hrs Tamara Fox, Program Officer, Population, The William and Flora Hewlett:50 to 09:20 hrs Eliya Zulu, Deputy Executive Director, African Population and Health Research Centre Chair

  6. Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth: A Computer-Based Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roh, Chaisung; Handler, Paul

    A computer-assisted instructional (CAI) program at the University of Illinois is used to teach the dynamics of population growth. Socio-economic models are also developed to show the consequences of population growth upon variables such as income, productivity, and the demand for food. A one-sex population projection model allows students to…

  7. Evolutionary game dynamics in a finite asymmetric two-deme population and emergence of cooperation

    E-print Network

    Lessard, Sabin

    definition of evolutionary stability in the case of a finite population has been proposed by Nowak et alEvolutionary game dynamics in a finite asymmetric two-deme population and emergence of cooperation in a finite population subdivided into two demes with both unequal deme sizes and different migration rates

  8. Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: Pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

    E-print Network

    Mitchell, Mike

    Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: Pumas in landscapes with varying Available online 22 January 2013 Keywords: Dispersal Population contribution Puma concolor Source to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter

  9. Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

    E-print Network

    Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos, 2008 (sent for review December 10, 2007) The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization

  10. Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

    E-print Network

    Lopez-Carr, David

    Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges David is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus

  11. A NOTE ON MIGRATION MORTALITY AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN GOOSE POPULATIONS DYNAMICS

    E-print Network

    Black, Jeff

    195 A NOTE ON MIGRATION MORTALITY AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN GOOSE POPULATIONS DYNAMICS MYRFYN OWEN 12 10 8 6 4 2 o In most goose populations, even those which are not legitimate quarry, man mortal- ity a significant factor in goose populations, and the way in which natural regulation would

  12. POPULATION ECOLOGY Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Empoasca fabae (Harris)

    E-print Network

    : Cicadellidae) in Alfalfa DANIEL A. EMMEN,1 S. J. FLEISCHER,2 AND A. HOWER2 Environ. Entomol. 33(4): 890Ð899: Cicadellidae), populations in a 4-ha alfalfa Þeld over 2 yr. Population growth and spatial structure were

  13. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  14. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  15. The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    E-print Network

    A. Mary Selvam

    2003-10-07

    Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer. The existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent flows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in turbulence. Numerical weather prediction models based on the inherently non-linear Navier-Stokes equations do not give realistic forecasts because of the following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for atmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to initial conditions give chaotic solutions characteristic of deterministic chaos (2) the governing equations do not incorporate the dynamical interactions and co-existence of the complete spectrum of turbulent fluctuations which form an integral part of the large coherent weather systems (3) limitations of available computer capacity necessitates severe truncation of the governing equations, thereby generating errors of approximations (4) the computer precision related roundoff errors magnify the earlier mentioned uncertainties exponentially with time and the model predictions become unrealistic. The accurate modelling of weather phenomena therefore requires alternative concepts and computational techniques. In this paper a universal theory of deterministic chaos applicable to the formation of coherent weather structures in the ABL is presented.

  16. Long-range prediction of epileptic seizures with nonlinear dynamics.

    PubMed

    Guastello, Stephen J; Boeh, Henry; Lynn, Mark

    2011-07-01

    Patients with uncontrolled epilepsy have some significant problems with planning life routines, and thus one goal of the present study was to explore the viability of predicting seizures in time intervals of one week. The second goal was to utilize the principle of dynamic diseases and to assess the viability of a cusp catastrophe model for seizure onset that was proposed by Cerf (2006). A seizure history of 124 weeks from one adult male patient fit both the cusp and fold catastrophe models (R2 = .92 and .88 respectively) reasonably well using the pdf method and more accurately than counterpart linear models. Prediction of future states was possible, but somewhat compromised because of the nonstationary nature of the data and uncertainties regarding the control variables in the catastrophe models. Analyses of lag functions, however, revealed some surprising elements, suggesting that the precursory conditions for a seizure could be building up over a period of several weeks and that a self-correcting effect within the nervous system could have been occurring. PMID:21645436

  17. Population-based visual acuity in the presence of defocus well predicted by classical theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weeber, Henk A.; Featherstone, Kristen A.; Piers, Patricia A.

    2010-07-01

    According to classical theory, visual acuity (VA) can be modeled using the intersection of the eye's modulation transfer function with a retinal threshold function. To date, there have been limited attempts to validate this methodology by comparing theory with actual measured data. We use the methodology to predict the visual acuity in the presence of defocus of a population of cataract patients implanted with diffractive multifocal intraocular lenses. For the prediction, we used a set of physiological eye models that include chromatic and higher order aberrations. We found that the simulations correlated strongly to the clinical outcomes (R2=0.93). While the simulated VA of the eye models was systematically 0.05 logMAR units lower (better acuity) than the clinical results, this difference was independent of defocus (p=0.98). These results show that when the simple and straightforward classical theory is applied using physiological eye models, accurate predictions of the VA, and through-focus VA of a population can be made. This method may be suited for predicting visual performance of new cataract and refractive treatments.

  18. Please cite this article in press as: Wernsdrfer, H., et al., Impact of uncertainty in tree mortality on the predictions of a tropical forest dynamics model. Ecol. Model. (2008), doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.017

    E-print Network

    Rossi, Vivien

    2008-01-01

    mortality on the predictions of a tropical forest dynamics model. Ecol. Model. (2008), doi:10.1016/j in tree mortality on the predictions of a tropical forest dynamics model H. Wernsdörfera, , V. Rossia , G (logging) on the demography and structure of tree populations in tropical forests (French Guiana

  19. Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (principal investigators)

    1981-01-01

    The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

  20. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  1. Predicting Student Academic Performance in an Engineering Dynamics Course: A Comparison of Four Types of Predictive Mathematical Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Shaobo; Fang, Ning

    2013-01-01

    Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…

  2. Towards predicting good users for biometric recognition based on keystroke dynamics

    E-print Network

    Autonoma de Madrid, Universidad

    . Keywords: Keystroke, typing patterns, biometric, authentication, qual- ity, performance prediction 1Towards predicting good users for biometric recognition based on keystroke dynamics Aythami Morales, Julian Fierrez, Javier Ortega-Garcia Biometric Recognition Group ATVS, EPS, Universidad Autonoma de

  3. Neural Methods for Dynamic Branch Prediction Daniel A. Jimenez Calvin Lin

    E-print Network

    Jiménez, Daniel A.

    Neural Methods for Dynamic Branch Prediction Daniel A. Jim´enez Calvin Lin Department of Computer along the predicted path. As pipelines deepen and the number of instructions issued per cycle increases

  4. Hybridizing Particle Filters and Population-based Metaheuristics for Dynamic Optimization Problems

    E-print Network

    Pantrigo Fernández, Juan José

    -reconstruction procedure [15]. On the other hand, many dynamic problems require the estimation of the system stateHybridizing Particle Filters and Population-based Metaheuristics for Dynamic Optimization Problems Many real-world optimization problems are dynamic. These problems require from powerful methods

  5. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  6. Application of six IrisPlex SNPs and comparison of two eye color prediction systems in diverse Eurasia populations.

    PubMed

    Yun, Libing; Gu, Yan; Rajeevan, Haseena; Kidd, Kenneth K

    2014-05-01

    DNA-based prediction for externally visible characteristics such as eye color is already a useful tool in forensic criminal investigations. The IrisPlex system, consisting of six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a prediction model, was developed based on individuals from several European populations. Other recent studies have developed a different prediction model, also based on European populations. In this study, we compared two prediction models using the data for the six IrisPlex SNPs genotyped on 905 individuals from 12 different Eurasian populations. All SNPs showed significant differences in allele frequencies among three groups of populations: European, genetically intermediate (Khanty, Uygur, and Yakut), and East Asian. The two prediction models, the FROG-kb calculation based on the formula of Walsh et al. (2011) and the Snipper calculation from Ruiz et al. (2013), gave identical predictions of brown eye color for the four East Asian populations with complete data but did not give concordant predictions for many individuals in the seven intermediate and European populations. Inconsistencies were mainly conclusive prediction by one model but not the other. Of the 714 individuals with complete 6-locus genotypes, the two models gave 22 % inconsistent predictions. Eliminating the 306 individuals in the Korean and three Chinese populations, in which the predictions were always consistent for brown eye color, the inconsistencies (among the remaining 408 individuals) were 38.7 %. We conclude that more attention should be paid to predictive uncertainty/error. Implementation of both prediction models in future forensic casework is one immediate way to highlight uncertainty. PMID:24395150

  7. q-deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, J.

    2014-07-01

    The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized.

  8. Dynamic mathematical model to predict microbial growth and inactivation during food processing.

    PubMed Central

    Van Impe, J F; Nicolaï, B M; Martens, T; De Baerdemaeker, J; Vandewalle, J

    1992-01-01

    Many sigmoidal functions to describe a bacterial growth curve as an explicit function of time have been reported in the literature. Furthermore, several expressions have been proposed to model the influence of temperature on the main characteristics of this growth curve: maximum specific growth rate, lag time, and asymptotic level. However, as the predictive value of such explicit models is most often guaranteed only at a constant temperature within the temperature range of microbial growth, they are less appropriate in optimization studies of a whole production and distribution chain. In this paper a dynamic mathematical model--a first-order differential equation--has been derived, describing the bacterial population as a function of both time and temperature. Furthermore, the inactivation of the population at temperatures above the maximum temperature for growth has been incorporated. In the special case of a constant temperature, the solution coincides exactly with the corresponding Gompertz model, which has been validated in several recent reports. However, the main advantage of this dynamic model is its ability to deal with time-varying temperatures, over the whole temperature range of growth and inactivation. As such, it is an essential building block in (time-saving) simulation studies to design, e.g., optimal temperature-time profiles with respect to microbial safety of a production and distribution chain of chilled foods. PMID:1444404

  9. Fluid mechanics of dynamic stall. II - Prediction of full scale characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ericsson, L. E.; Reding, J. P.

    1988-01-01

    Analytical extrapolations are made from experimental subscale dynamics to predict full scale characteristics of dynamic stall. The method proceeds by establishing analytic relationships between dynamic and static aerodynamic characteristics induced by viscous flow effects. The method is then validated by predicting dynamic test results on the basis of corresponding static test data obtained at the same subscale flow conditions, and the effect of Reynolds number on the static aerodynamic characteristics are determined from subscale to full scale flow conditions.

  10. Can CA-125 Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in Epithelial Ovarian Cancers in Turkish Population?

    PubMed Central

    Köro?lu, Nadiye; Y?ld?r?m, Gökhan; Ülker, Volkan; Gülk?l?k, Ahmet; Dansuk, Ramazan

    2014-01-01

    Objective. The role of single preoperative serum CA-125 levels in predicting pelvic or paraaortic lymph node metastasis in patients operated for epithelial ovarian cancer has been investigated. Methods. 176 patients diagnosed with epithelial ovarian carcinoma after staging laparotomy between January 2002 and May 2010 were evaluated retrospectively. Results. The mean, geometric mean, and median of preoperative serum CA-125 levels were 632,6, 200,29, and 191,5?U/mL, respectively. The cut-off value predicting lymph node metastases in the ROC curve was 71,92?U/mL, which is significant in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.005). The preoperative log CA-125 levels were also statistically significant in predicting lymph node metastasis in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.008). Conclusions. The tumor marker CA-125, which increases with grade independent of the effect of stage in EOC, is predictive of lymph node metastasis with a high rate of false positivity in Turkish population. The high false positive rate may obscure the predictive value of CA-125. PMID:24795494

  11. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  12. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FUNGA, NEMATODE, BACTERIA AND ALGAL POPULATION IN A SOIL OF MAZON REGION OF PERU

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil microbes are mainly responsible for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystems. Population dynamics of soil microbes (fungus, bacteria, nematodes, algae) under secondary forest in tropical region is not well understood. An experiment was implemented at Tropical Crop Rese...

  13. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  14. Predicting risk of hospitalisation or death: a retrospective population-based analysis

    PubMed Central

    Louis, Daniel Z; Robeson, Mary; McAna, John; Maio, Vittorio; Keith, Scott W; Liu, Mengdan; Gonnella, Joseph S; Grilli, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Develop predictive models using an administrative healthcare database that provide information for Patient-Centred Medical Homes to proactively identify patients at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. Design Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariate logistic regression models. Data A population-based longitudinal database of residents served by the Emilia-Romagna, Italy, health service in the years 2004–2012 including demographic information and utilisation of health services by 3?726?380 people aged ?18?years. Outcome measures Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2012 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve C-statistic, in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value, and for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk. Results Among the 3?726?380 adult residents of Emilia-Romagna at the end of 2011, 449?163 (12.1%) were hospitalised in 2012; 4.2% were hospitalised for the selected conditions or died in 2012 (3.6% hospitalised, 1.3% died). The C-statistic for predicting 2012 outcomes was 0.856. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk. For those patients in the highest predicted risk decile group, the average predicted risk was 23.9% and the actual prevalence of hospitalisation or death was 24.2%. Conclusions We have developed a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for residents of the Emilia-Romagna region with a level of performance as high as, or higher than, similar models. The results of this model, along with profiles of patients identified as high risk are being provided to the physicians and other healthcare professionals associated with the Patient Centred Medical Homes to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients’ likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation. PMID:25231488

  15. Accurate Prediction of Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using Stem Cell-Derived Populations

    PubMed Central

    Szkolnicka, Dagmara; Farnworth, Sarah L.; Lucendo-Villarin, Baltasar; Storck, Christopher; Zhou, Wenli; Iredale, John P.; Flint, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Despite major progress in the knowledge and management of human liver injury, there are millions of people suffering from chronic liver disease. Currently, the only cure for end-stage liver disease is orthotopic liver transplantation; however, this approach is severely limited by organ donation. Alternative approaches to restoring liver function have therefore been pursued, including the use of somatic and stem cell populations. Although such approaches are essential in developing scalable treatments, there is also an imperative to develop predictive human systems that more effectively study and/or prevent the onset of liver disease and decompensated organ function. We used a renewable human stem cell resource, from defined genetic backgrounds, and drove them through developmental intermediates to yield highly active, drug-inducible, and predictive human hepatocyte populations. Most importantly, stem cell-derived hepatocytes displayed equivalence to primary adult hepatocytes, following incubation with known hepatotoxins. In summary, we have developed a serum-free, scalable, and shippable cell-based model that faithfully predicts the potential for human liver injury. Such a resource has direct application in human modeling and, in the future, could play an important role in developing renewable cell-based therapies. PMID:24375539

  16. Predicting and controlling the reactivity of immune cell populations against cancer

    PubMed Central

    Oved, Kfir; Eden, Eran; Akerman, Martin; Noy, Roy; Wolchinsky, Ron; Izhaki, Orit; Schallmach, Ester; Kubi, Adva; Zabari, Naama; Schachter, Jacob; Alon, Uri; Mandel-Gutfreund, Yael; Besser, Michal J; Reiter, Yoram

    2009-01-01

    Heterogeneous cell populations form an interconnected network that determine their collective output. One example of such a heterogeneous immune population is tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), whose output can be measured in terms of its reactivity against tumors. While the degree of reactivity varies considerably between different TILs, ranging from null to a potent response, the underlying network that governs the reactivity is poorly understood. Here, we asked whether one can predict and even control this reactivity. To address this we measured the subpopulation compositions of 91 TILs surgically removed from 27 metastatic melanoma patients. Despite the large number of subpopulations compositions, we were able to computationally extract a simple set of subpopulation-based rules that accurately predict the degree of reactivity. This raised the conjecture of whether one could control reactivity of TILs by manipulating their subpopulation composition. Remarkably, by rationally enriching and depleting selected subsets of subpopulations, we were able to restore anti-tumor reactivity to nonreactive TILs. Altogether, this work describes a general framework for predicting and controlling the output of a cell mixture. PMID:19401677

  17. Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory.

    PubMed

    Topping, Christopher J; Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Farrell, Katharine N; Grimm, Volker

    2015-11-01

    Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tie models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that are included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts. PMID:26655779

  18. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

  19. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    SciTech Connect

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  20. Response of microbial community of tundra soil to global warming: Simulation of seasonal and long-term population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Panikov, N.S.

    1994-11-01

    A mathematical model has been constructed and verified to simulate dynamics of a microbial community in typical tundra. The model contains the following state variables: the population densities of three competing microbial species (exemplified by Arthrobacter, Pseudomonas, and Bacillus), indexes of their physiological state, concentration of available organic substrate, plant litter reserves, the amount of microbiovorous protozoans, and temperature. The mathematical model simulates adequately the qualitative features of microbial seasonal dynamics observed in tundra. The global warming and associated increase in primary productivity, as predicted by simulation, will relieve the pressure of L-selection and thus result in stabilization of the tundra microbial community. The model also predicts that aerobic decomposition of dead organic matter in solid will be accelerated compared to its formation. 24 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Population demographic models in ecological risk assessment: Interpreting effects and predicting contaminant risk

    SciTech Connect

    Dillon, T.M.

    1994-12-31

    Ecological risk can be assessed at different levels of biological organization: biochemical, whole animal, populations and communities. Each level is characterized by varying degrees of contaminant sensitivity, response time, causal linkage and ecological interpretation. Whole animal bioassays are used in research and regulatory programs to assess contaminant impacts. In many ways, bioassays represent a compromise between the need for rapid, sensitive testing and the desire to measure ecologically important endpoints. Population demographic models represent a tool for interpreting bioassay results. They integrate life-history information and project population-level contaminant effects. Four important research issues must be addressed before demographic models can be fully utilized in this manner. Assumptions and extrapolations accompanying many models must be critically examined; e.g. assumption of no density-dependence and spatial/temporal extrapolations. Laboratory-based models must be calibrated with field-derived demographic models. Population models must be coupled with exposure models to characterize contaminant risk. Finally, field verification studies must be conducted to evaluate the accuracy of demographic model predictions.

  2. Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewicki, David G.

    1986-01-01

    How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

  3. A 50-SNP assay for biogeographic ancestry and phenotype prediction in the U.S. population.

    PubMed

    Gettings, Katherine Butler; Lai, Ronald; Johnson, Joni L; Peck, Michelle A; Hart, Jessica A; Gordish-Dressman, Heather; Schanfield, Moses S; Podini, Daniele S

    2014-01-01

    When an STR DNA profile obtained from crime scene evidence does not match identified suspects or profiles from available databases, further DNA analyses targeted at inferring the possible ancestral origin and phenotypic characteristics of the perpetrator could yield valuable information. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), the most common form of genetic polymorphisms, have alleles associated with specific populations and/or correlated to physical characteristics. We have used single base primer extension (SBE) technology to develop a 50 SNP assay (composed of three multiplexes) designed to predict ancestry among the primary U.S. populations (African American, East Asian, European American, and Hispanic American/Native American), as well as pigmentation phenotype (eye, hair, and skin color) among European American. We have optimized this assay to a sensitivity level comparable to current forensic DNA analyses, and shown robust performance on forensic-type samples. In addition, we developed a prediction model for ancestry in the U.S. population, based on the random match probability and likelihood ratio formulas already used in forensic laboratories. Lastly, we evaluated the biogeographic ancestry prediction model using a test set, and we evaluated an existing model for eye color with our U.S. sample set. Using these models with recommended thresholds, the 50 SNP assay provided accurate ancestry information in 98.6% of the test set samples, and provided accurate eye color information in 61% of the European samples tested (25% were inconclusive and 14% were incorrect). This method, which uses equipment already available in forensic DNA laboratories, is recommended for use in U.S. forensic casework to provide additional information about the donor of a DNA sample when the STR profile has not been linked to an individual. PMID:24315596

  4. Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Lillegård, Magnar; Grøtan, Vidar; Drever, Mark C; Engen, Steinar; Nudds, Thomas D; Podruzny, Kevin M

    2008-09-01

    1. Geographic gradients in population dynamics may occur because of spatial variation in resources that affect the deterministic components of the dynamics (i.e. carrying capacity, the specific growth rate at small densities or the strength of density regulation) or because of spatial variation in the effects of environmental stochasticity. To evaluate these, we used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate parameters characterizing deterministic components and stochastic influences on population dynamics of eight species of ducks (mallard, northern pintail, blue-winged teal, gadwall, northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback and redhead (Anas platyrhynchos, A. acuta, A. discors, A. strepera, A. clypeata, A. americana, Aythya valisineria and Ay. americana, respectively) breeding in the North American prairies, and then tested whether these parameters varied latitudinally. 2. We also examined the influence of temporal variation in the availability of wetlands, spring temperature and winter precipitation on population dynamics to determine whether geographical gradients in population dynamics were related to large-scale variation in environmental effects. Population variability, as measured by the variance of the population fluctuations around the carrying capacity K, decreased with latitude for all species except canvasback. This decrease in population variability was caused by a combination of latitudinal gradients in the strength of density dependence, carrying capacity and process variance, for which details varied by species. 3. The effects of environmental covariates on population dynamics also varied latitudinally, particularly for mallard, northern pintail and northern shoveler. However, the proportion of the process variance explained by environmental covariates, with the exception of mallard, tended to be small. 4. Thus, geographical gradients in population dynamics of prairie ducks resulted from latitudinal gradients in both deterministic and stochastic components, and were likely influenced by spatial differences in the distribution of wetland types and shapes, agricultural practices and dispersal processes. 5. These results suggest that future management of these species could be improved by implementing harvest models that account explicitly for spatial variation in density effects and environmental stochasticity on population abundance. PMID:18631261

  5. vRNA structured population model for Hepatitis C Virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Woot de Trixhe, X; Krzyzanski, W; De Ridder, F; Vermeulen, A

    2015-08-01

    Improvements in the understanding of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) life-cycle have led to the identification of targets and the development of drugs affecting the intracellular reproduction of the virus. These advancements have presented new modeling challenges as the classic models have focused on describing the macroscopic viral kinetics only. Our primary objective is to apply the existing theory of Physiologically Structured Population (PSP) modeling to describe dynamics of viral RNA (vRNA) in infected hepatocytes of patients receiving treatment with Direct-acting Antiviral Agents (DAA). Using vRNA as a physiological structure this work expands on previous structured population models allowing exploration of micro- and macroscopic implications of such treatments. The PSP model provides a description of vRNA distribution in the infected cells at steady state and its time evolution following treatment. The long term behavior of the model predicts viral load time courses in plasma and permits to quantify conditions for the virus eradication. Finally, we demonstrate that PSP models can account for additional structures, which are essential for the viral replication process with potentially far reaching implications in our understanding of HCV infections and treatment options. PMID:25912382

  6. EFFECTS: documentation and verification for a BEIR III cancer risk model based on age, sex, and population dynamics for BIOTRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Wenzel, W.J.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1985-09-01

    The computer simulation code EFFECTS is coupled with the radionuclide uptake and environmental transport strategies of the BIOTRAN code to predict cancer risks and deaths in a dynamic human population. Total mortalities due to all causes are incorporated with projected radiation-induced cancer mortalities caused by all previous chronic or acute radiation exposures of the population as a function of age and sex. Superpositioning radiation-induced cancer mortalities on current total mortalities in each age group allows a realistic and dynamic estimate of cancer risks for complex radiation exposure scenarios. EFFECTS was developed on the CDC 7600 and can be executed on the Cray computer system at Los Alamos National Laboratory. EFFECTS can simulate the upper boundary of cancer risk estimates where population exposures occur over many years and where organ burdens are integrated over the lifetime of the individual. This report gives new insight on age-specific cancer risks. As part of the code verification, the simulated impacts to a small population from natural background uranium and an accidental release of airborne plutonium are compared. For the long-term continuous exposure to natural background uranium, the impact to the population is very small (2 x 10/sup -6/ to 7 x 10/sup -6/ deaths/10,000 people) with young adults receiving the largest bone doses and risks. For the long-term intakes following a simulated accidental air release of plutonium, young teenagers receive the highest bone doses while young adults receive the largest risk. Simulating these two scenarios, using BIOTRAN/HUMTRN/EFFECTS, illustrates sufficient resolution to predict the age/sex-specific response from human populations from contaminants in our environment. 23 refs., 43 figs., 7 tabs.

  7. Population and coherence dynamics in light harvesting complex II (LH2) Shu-Hao Yeh, Jing Zhu, and Sabre Kais

    E-print Network

    Kais, Sabre

    Population and coherence dynamics in light harvesting complex II (LH2) Shu-Hao Yeh, Jing Zhu, 084110 (2012) Population and coherence dynamics in light harvesting complex II (LH2) Shu-Hao Yeh,1 Jing) The electronic excitation population and coherence dynamics in the chromophores of the photosyn- thetic light

  8. Hearing, mobility, and pain predict mortality: a longitudinal population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Feeny, David; Huguet, Nathalie; McFarland, Bentson H.; Kaplan, Mark S.; Orpana, Heather; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Objective Measures of health-related quality of life (HRQL), including the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) are predictive of mortality. HUI3 includes eight attributes, vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, cognition, emotion, and pain and discomfort, with five or six levels per attribute that vary from no to severe disability. This study examined associations between individual HUI3 attributes and mortality. Study Design and Setting Baseline data and 12 years of follow-up data from a closed longitudinal cohort study, the 1994/95 Canadian National Population Health Survey, consisting of 12,375 women and men aged 18 and older. A priori hypotheses were that ambulation, cognition, emotion, and pain would predict mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied controlling for standard determinants of health and risk factors. Results Single-attribute utility scores for ambulation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.10; 0.04–0.22), hearing (HR = 0.18; 0.06–0.57), and pain (HR = 0.53; 0.29–0.96) were statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality; ambulation and hearing were predictive for the 60+ cohort. Conclusion Few studies have identified hearing or pain as risk factors for mortality. This study is innovative because it identifies specific components of HRQL that predict mortality. Further research is needed to understand better the mechanisms through which deficits in hearing and pain affect mortality risks. PMID:22521576

  9. StockRecruitment Dynamics and the Maximum Population Growth Rate of the Barndoor Skate on Georges Bank

    E-print Network

    Kuehl, Steven A.

    Stock­Recruitment Dynamics and the Maximum Population Growth Rate of the Barndoor Skate on Georges population dynamics: the relationship of recruitment to spawner abundance and the maximum population growth of the instantaneous maximum population growth rate of 0.37­0.38 per year. A second analysis was also conducted using

  10. Model to Track Wild Birds for Avian Influenza by Means of Population Dynamics and Surveillance Information

    PubMed Central

    Alba, Anna; Bicout, Dominique J.; Vidal, Francesc; Curcó, Antoni; Allepuz, Alberto; Napp, Sebastián; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Costa, Taiana; Casal, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV. PMID:22952962

  11. Comparative dynamics of small mammal populations in treefall gaps and surrounding understorey within Amazonian rainforest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beck, H.; Gaines, M.S.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    Variation in food resource availability can have profound effects on habitat selection and dynamics of populations. Previous studies reported higher food resource availability and fruit removal in treefall gaps than in the understorey. Therefore, gaps have been considered 'keystone habitat' for Neotropical frugivore birds. Here we test if this prediction would also hold for terrestrial small mammals. In the Amazon, we quantified food resource availability in eleven treefall gaps and paired understorey habitats and used feeding experiments to test if two common terrestrial rodents (Oryzomys megacephalus and Proechimys spp.) would perceive differences between habitats. We live-trapped small mammals in eleven gaps and understorey sites for two years, and compared abundance, fitness components (survival and per capita recruitment) and dispersal of these two rodent species across gaps and understorey and seasons (rainy and dry). Our data indicated no differences in resource availability and consumption rate between habitats. Treefall gaps may represent a sink habitat for Oryzomys where individuals had lower fitness, apparently because of habitat-specific ant predation on early life stages, than in the understorey, the source habitat. Conversely, gaps may be source habitat for Proechimys where individuals had higher fitness, than in the understorey, the sink habitat. Our results suggest the presence of source-sink dynamics in a tropical gap-understorey landscape, where two rodent species perceive habitats differently. This may be a mechanism for their coexistence in a heterogeneous and species-diverse system.

  12. Population dynamics in central and edge populations of a narrowly endemic plant.

    PubMed

    Aikens, Melissa L; Roach, Deborah A

    2014-07-01

    Species' range limits can be caused by environmental gradients, and in such cases, abundance is thought to be highest in the center of a species range and decline towards the edge (the abundant-center model). Although in theory decreased abundance is caused by a decline in performance at the edge, it has been shown that performance and abundance are not necessarily related. Few studies have compared abundance and performance in center and edge populations of endemic species, whose ranges may be restricted by the availability of specialized habitat rather than environmental gradients across their range. Additionally, range-wide studies that examine both northern and southern edge populations are rare. We used Roan Mountain rattlesnake-root (Prenanthes roanensis), a perennial plant endemic to the Southern Appalachians (USA), to compare abundance and performance between central populations and populations at the northern and southern edges of the range. To account for multiple fitness components across the life cycle, we measured performance of edge populations as vital-rate contributions to population growth rate compared to the center. Abundance did not decline at the range edge, but some vital-rate contributions were lower in edge populations compared to central populations. However, each edge population differed in which vital-rate contributions were lower compared to the center. Our results do not support the abundant-center model, and it appears that local factors are important in structuring the range of this endemic species. It is important to recognize that when implementing conservation or management plans, populations in close proximity may have substantial variation in demographic rates due to differences in the local environment. PMID:25163118

  13. A Quantative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population Dynamics

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population DynamicsAn adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a qualitative description linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) with measureable key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). ...

  14. Population dynamics and diversity of Synechococcus on the New England shelf

    E-print Network

    Hunter-Cevera, Kristen Rachell

    2014-01-01

    Synechococcus is a ubiquitous marine primary producer. Our understanding of the factors that determine its abundance has been limited by available observational tools, which have not been able to resolve population dynamics ...

  15. Hsr-ENEMARSH 75 The Life History, Pattern of Brcedhg, and population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Marsh, Helene

    Hsr-ENEMARSH 75 The Life History, Pattern of Brcedhg, and population Dynamics of the Dugong historyofthe dugong.Populationsimulationsindicatedthat,witheventhemostoptimisticcombinationollife historyparametersandalowrateofmortality,adugongpopulationprobablydoesnotincreaseatmore thanabout5Voor 6%olyear. Key words: Dugong

  16. A model simulation of white-winged dove population dynamics in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province 

    E-print Network

    Martinez, Cristina Ann

    2002-01-01

    I present the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a simulation model representing two components of population dynamics-natality and mortality-for the white-winged dove (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO). I also discuss the role...

  17. Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Episomes among Ecologically Cohesive Bacterial Populations

    E-print Network

    Xue, Hong

    Although plasmids and other episomes are recognized as key players in horizontal gene transfer among microbes, their diversity and dynamics among ecologically structured host populations in the wild remain poorly understood. ...

  18. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis

    E-print Network

    Berti, Stefano; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 50's with the KiSS (after Kierstead, Slobodkin and Skellam) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size $L$ surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality -- i.e. an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here, we introduce an individual-based analogue of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasi-stationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  19. Evolution in population dynamics via nonlocal reaction diffusion models

    E-print Network

    Jeanjean, Louis

    are interested in biological invasions involving darwinian evolution. First we consider a population structured, immediate extinction.This sheds light on the biological relevance of such models. (Joint work with R. Carles

  20. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  1. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  2. Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales

    E-print Network

    and Mandrak 1993). Relatively little is known about the influ- ence of this industry on natural waters, even change the population structure of bait species being harvested (Litvak and Mandrak 1993). Fish are known

  3. Modeling complex spatial dynamics of two-population interaction in urbanization process

    E-print Network

    Chen, Yanguang

    2013-01-01

    This paper is mainly devoted to lay an empirical foundation for further research on complex spatial dynamics of two-population interaction. Based on the US population census data, a rural and urban population interaction model is developed. Subsequently a logistic equation on percentage urban is derived from the urbanization model so that spatial interaction can be connected mathematically with logistic growth. The numerical experiment by using the discretized urban-rural population interaction model of urbanization shows a period-doubling bifurcation and chaotic behavior, which is identical in patterns to those from the simple mathematical models of logistic growth in ecology. This suggests that the complicated dynamics of logistic growth may come from some kind of the nonlinear interaction. The results from this study help to understand urbanization, urban-rural population interaction, chaotic dynamics, and spatial complexity of geographical systems.

  4. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  5. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (?) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 ?g L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on ? was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants. PMID:22851126

  6. Age, Growth, and Population Dynamics of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) Along Coastal Texas 

    E-print Network

    Neuenhoff, Rachel Dawn

    2010-10-12

    of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 2009 Major Subject: Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences AGE, GROWTH, AND POPULATION DYNAMICS OF COMMON BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS (Tursiops truncatus) ALONG COASTAL TEXAS A Thesis... Members, Bernd W?rsig Antonietta Quigg Head of Department, Thomas Lacher August 2009 Major Subject: Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences iii ABSTRACT Age, Growth, and Population Dynamics of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus...

  7. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    PubMed

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems. PMID:17601143

  8. Neonatal body condition, immune responsiveness, and hematocrit predict longevity in a wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Hodges, Christine J.; Forsman, Anna M.; Vogel, Laura A.; Masters, Brian S.; Johnson, Bonnie G. P.; Johnson, L. Scott; Thompson, Charles F.; Sakaluk, Scott K.

    2014-01-01

    Measures of body condition, immune function, and hematological health are widely used in ecological studies of vertebrate populations, predicated on the assumption that these traits are linked to fitness. However, compelling evidence that these traits actually predict long-term survival and reproductive success among individuals in the wild is lacking. Here, we show that body condition (i.e., size-adjusted body mass) and cutaneous immune responsiveness to phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) injection among neonates positively predict recruitment and subsequent longevity in a wild, migratory population of house wrens (Troglodytes aedon). However, neonates with intermediate hematocrit had the highest recruitment and longevity. Neonates with the highest PHA responsiveness and intermediate hematocrit prior to independence eventually produced the most offspring during their lifetime breeding on the study site. Importantly, the effects of PHA responsiveness and hematocrit were revealed while controlling for variation in body condition, sex, and environmental variation. Thus, our data demonstrate that body condition, cutaneous immune responsiveness, and hematocrit as a neonate are associated with individual fitness. Although hematocrit's effect is more complex than traditionally thought, our results suggest a previously underappreciated role for this trait in influencing survival in the wild. PMID:25505800

  9. Seed size and number make contrasting predictions on seed survival and dispersal dynamics: A case study from oil tea Camellia oleifera

    E-print Network

    Krebs, Charles J.

    Seed size and number make contrasting predictions on seed survival and dispersal dynamics: A case Keywords: Individual variation Oil tea Camellia oleifera Seed dispersal Seed number Seed size Seed survival a b s t r a c t Seed size and number vary greatly both within and among plant individuals, populations

  10. Including different groups of genotyped females for genomic prediction in a Nordic Jersey population.

    PubMed

    Gao, H; Madsen, P; Nielsen, U S; Aamand, G P; Su, G; Byskov, K; Jensen, J

    2015-12-01

    Including genotyped females in a reference population (RP) is an obvious way to increase the RP in genomic selection, especially for dairy breeds of limited population size. However, the incorporation of these females must be conducted cautiously because of the potential preferential treatment of the genotyped cows and lower reliabilities of phenotypes compared with the proven pseudo-phenotypes of bulls. Breeding organizations in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden have implemented a female-genotyping project with the possibility of genotyping entire herds using the low-density (LD) chip. In the present study, 5 scenarios for building an RP were investigated in the Nordic Jersey population: (1) bulls only, (2) bulls with females from the LD project, (3) bulls with females from the LD project plus non-LD project females genotyped before their first calving, (4) bulls with females from the LD project plus non-LD project females genotyped after their first calving, and (5) bulls with all genotyped females. The genomically enhanced breeding value (GEBV) was predicted for 8 traits in the Nordic total merit index through a genomic BLUP model using deregressed proof (DRP) as the response variable in all scenarios. In addition, (daughter) yield deviation and raw phenotypic data were studied as response variables for comparison with the DRP, using stature as a model trait. The validation population was formed using a cut-off birth year of 2005 based on the genotyped Nordic Jersey bulls with DRP. The average increment in reliability of the GEBV across the 8 traits investigated was 1.9 to 4.5 percentage points compared with using only bulls in the RP (scenario 1). The addition of all the genotyped females to the RP resulted in the highest gain in reliability (scenario 5), followed by scenario 3, scenario 2, and scenario 4. All scenarios led to inflated GEBV because the regression coefficients are less than 1. However, scenario 2 and scenario 3 led to less bias of genomic predictions than scenario 5, with regression coefficients showing less deviation from scenario 1. For the study on stature, the daughter yield deviation/daughter yield deviation performed slightly better than the DRP as the response variable in the genomic BLUP (GBLUP) model. Therefore, adding unselected females in the RP could significantly improve the reliabilities and tended to reduce the prediction bias compared with adding selectively genotyped females. Although the DRP has performed robustly so far, the use of raw data is recommended with a single-step model as an optimal solution for future genomic evaluations. PMID:26433419

  11. NIH Research Festival - Translating clinical and population discoveries into improved prediction of risk for disease prevention and improvement of health

    Cancer.gov

    Population studies have identified important risk factors for predicting risk and determining appropriate interventions in individuals and populations. Leveraging recognized sources of heterogeneity in risk of prevalent or future disease can allow improved performance in intervention programs that target those at highest risk.

  12. Simulation modeling of the effects of oil spills on population dynamics of northern fur seals

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, M.; French, D.; Calambokidia, J.; Cubbage, J.

    1987-03-01

    Population dynamics and migration models were developed and combined with an oil-spill simulation model to determine the effects of oil spills on the Pribilof Island fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population. In the population-dynamics model, mortality of pups on land and juveniles up to two years of age is density dependent, while that of older seals is age- and sex-specific and constant at all population sizes. Movement patterns of seals within the Bering Sea are functions of date, sexual status, and age. Two hypothetical 10,000 barrel oil spill simulations were performed. Depending on the assumed oil-induced mortality rate in the range 25%-100%, effective recovery of the population from these spills, i.e., the number of years before the oil-affected population numbers, took 0 to 25 years.

  13. Logistic Growth Logistic growth is a simple model for predicting the size y(t) of a population as a

    E-print Network

    Feldman, Joel

    Logistic Growth Logistic growth is a simple model for predicting the size y(t) of a population as a function of the time t. In the most naive model of population growth, each couple produces 2+2 offspring and then dies. Thus over the course of one generation the size of the population grows from y(t) to y(t + tg

  14. Dynamics of populations on the verge of extinction Beata Oborny, Geza Meszena and Gyorgy Szabo

    E-print Network

    Meszéna, Géza

    are aware of several factors that can cause extinction in natural populations (man-made distur- bance, pests the species occurs, thus, local extinctions can be compen- sated by the colonization of empty sites. HowDynamics of populations on the verge of extinction Bea´ta Oborny, Ge´za Mesze´na and Gyo¨rgy Szabo

  15. Evolution and spatial structure interact to inuence plant^herbivore population and community dynamics

    E-print Network

    Hartvigsen, Gregg

    Evolution and spatial structure interact to in£uence plant^herbivore population and community of plant^herbivore interactions was developed to test the potentially interactive e¡ects of explicit space and coevolution on population and community dynamics. Individual plants and herbivores resided in cells

  16. Long-term tree population dynamics and their implications for the conservation of the Kakamega

    E-print Network

    Fashing, Peter J.

    1996). Over the past century, growing human populations have put increasing pressure on tropicalLong-term tree population dynamics and their implications for the conservation of the Kakamega; accepted in revised form 24 February 2003 Key words: Cattle, Conservation, Human disturbance, Selective

  17. Bacterial population structure and dynamics during the development of almond drupes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Aims: To describe the bacterial populations and their dynamics during the development of almond drupes. Methods and Results: We examined 16S rRNA gene libraries derived from the bacterial populations on almond drupes at three stages of development: 1) when the drupes were full sized, but before embr...

  18. Extinction Rate Fragility in Population Dynamics M. Khasin and M. I. Dykman

    E-print Network

    Dykman, Mark

    Extinction Rate Fragility in Population Dynamics M. Khasin and M. I. Dykman Department of Physics manuscript received 28 April 2009; published 4 August 2009) Population extinction is of central interest-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation

  19. ARTICLE Communicated by Nicolas Brunel Correlations and Population Dynamics in Cortical Networks

    E-print Network

    ARTICLE Communicated by Nicolas Brunel Correlations and Population Dynamics in Cortical Networks City, Saitama 351-0198, Japan Stefan Rotter stefan.rotter@biologie.uni-freiburg.de Bernstein Center of cortical networks depends on the collective interplay between neurons and neuronal populations, which

  20. CHAPTER 2: SIMULATIONS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HEMLOCK WOOLLY ADELGID AND POTENTIAL IMPACT

    E-print Network

    CHAPTER 2: SIMULATIONS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HEMLOCK WOOLLY ADELGID AND POTENTIAL IMPACT growth and expansion of adelgid populations, and the resulting decline in hemlock health and abundance spp.). Sexuparae in the native range of China and Japan initiate a sexually reproducing generation

  1. Long-term Dynamics of Giant Sequoia Populations: Implications for Managing a Pioneer Species1

    E-print Network

    Long-term Dynamics of Giant Sequoia Populations: Implications for Managing a Pioneer Species1 of giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum [Lindl.] Buchholz). We have found the following: (1) The amount of successful reproduction in a grove cannot be judged by the sizes of its trees. (2) Sequoia populations almost

  2. DO SAGE-GROUSE HAVE A FUTURE IN CANADA? POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MANAGEMENT SUGGESTIONS

    E-print Network

    Aldridge, Cameron

    1 DO SAGE-GROUSE HAVE A FUTURE IN CANADA? POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MANAGEMENT SUGGESTIONS Cameron L@ualberta.ca Abstract: Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations have declined by 45 to 80% throughout Sage- Grouse survival and measure productivity in southeastern Alberta in 1998 and 1999. Survival

  3. Population dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a decision model for sugar beet planting

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A series of investigations were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initi...

  4. A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence

    E-print Network

    Oli, Madan K.

    A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics, Ochopee, FL, 34141, USA Summary 1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool mecha- nisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2

  5. Organizational ecology and population dynamics in politics : an agent-based model

    E-print Network

    Jung, Danielle Fitzpatrick

    2012-01-01

    high levels of cooperation other factors must be in play.more often, but as factors that favor cooperation increase,factors— organizational ecology and population dynamics— drive how actors, and populations use markets, networks and hierarchies to solve their cooperation

  6. Power spectra reveal the influence of stochasticity on nonlinear population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Cohen, Joel E.

    the main frequency of population fluctuations. flour beetle Fourier transform strong noise Tribolium weak to the inherent popu- lation cycles and nonlinear models of Tribolium flour beetles, which have been used for decades in laboratory studies of population dynamics (11, 24, 25). For Tribolium castaneum, cannibalism

  7. Habitat and Vegetation Variables Are Not Enough When Predicting Tick Populations in the Southeastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Trout Fryxell, R. T.; Moore, J. E.; Collins, M. D.; Kwon, Y.; Jean-Philippe, S. R.; Schaeffer, S. M.; Odoi, A.; Kennedy, M.; Houston, A. E.

    2015-01-01

    Two tick-borne diseases with expanding case and vector distributions are ehrlichiosis (transmitted by Amblyomma americanum) and rickettiosis (transmitted by A. maculatum and Dermacentor variabilis). There is a critical need to identify the specific habitats where each of these species is likely to be encountered to classify and pinpoint risk areas. Consequently, an in-depth tick prevalence study was conducted on the dominant ticks in the southeast. Vegetation, soil, and remote sensing data were used to test the hypothesis that habitat and vegetation variables can predict tick abundances. No variables were significant predictors of A. americanum adult and nymph tick abundance, and no clustering was evident because this species was found throughout the study area. For A. maculatum adult tick abundance was predicted by NDVI and by the interaction between habitat type and plant diversity; two significant population clusters were identified in a heterogeneous area suitable for quail habitat. For D. variabilis no environmental variables were significant predictors of adult abundance; however, D. variabilis collections clustered in three significant areas best described as agriculture areas with defined edges. This study identified few landscape and vegetation variables associated with tick presence. While some variables were significantly associated with tick populations, the amount of explained variation was not useful for predicting reliably where ticks occur; consequently, additional research that includes multiple sampling seasons and locations throughout the southeast are warranted. This low amount of explained variation may also be due to the use of hosts for dispersal, and potentially to other abiotic and biotic variables. Host species play a large role in the establishment, maintenance, and dispersal of a tick species, as well as the maintenance of disease cycles, dispersal to new areas, and identification of risk areas. PMID:26656122

  8. Designing Heterogeneous Sensor Networks for Estimating and Predicting Path Travel Time Dynamics: An Information-Theoretic

    E-print Network

    Zhou, Xuesong

    1 Designing Heterogeneous Sensor Networks for Estimating and Predicting Path Travel Time Dynamics on the end-to-end travel time prediction problem, this paper proposes an information- theoretic sensor in the travel time estimation/prediction process, such as the uncertainty associated with prior travel time

  9. An overview of the population dynamics in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Arshat, H; Tey Nai Peng

    1988-06-01

    Between 1900 and 1985 the population of Malaysia has increased from 2 million to 16 million. Before World War II most of the growth was due to immigration from China and India; after World War II it was due to natural increase. The crude birth rate appears to be leveling off at about 31.3 and the crude death rate at 5.3. At the current rate of growth the total population will be about 32 million by 2015. The proportion of urban population increased from 27% in 1979 to 34% in 1980. In 1980 83% of the population lived in Peninsular Malaysia (39% of the land area), and 17% lived in Sabah and Sarawak (61% of the land area). Population density ranges from 12 persons per square kilometer in Sarawak to 4521 in the Federal Republic of Kuala Lumpur. The median age of the population is 17.4 years; 40% are under 14, and 3.6% are over 65. In most age groups there are more women than men. The annual growth rate for Malays is higher than for Chinese and Indians, and Malays constituted 55% of the population in 1980. 34% are Chinese and 10% are Indian. Total fertility rate declined from 68/1000 in 1957 to 39/1000 in 1985. Malay fertility (4.8 children) is higher than either Indian (2.9) or Chinese (2.7) Malay fertility has been increasing while that of Indians and Chinese is decreasing due to contraception. Also, among all 3 groups age at marriage has increased. Data from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey show that the differential fertility of the 3 groups is due largely to rural/urban distribution, education, and work patterns. Ideal family size, according to the survey, is 4.8. The National Population and Family Development Program would like to achieve a growth rate of 2%/year, and family planning knowledge has become virtually universal. KAP surveys show that by 1984 contraceptive prevalence was 51%; however 42% of all eligible women were using unreliable methods. In terms of efficient methods, contraceptive prevalence rate was 16% for Malays, 47% for Chinese, and 40% for Indians. Crude death rate has declined to less than 6/1000, largely due to reductions in infant and child mortality. Internal migration to the cities has done much to achieve the objectives of the New Economic Policy to equalize location and vocations of the 3 ethnic groups. Urbanization has slowed since the launching of various land development schemes in the 1960s. The population policy of the government is to achieve a stabilized population of 70 million by year 2070, which means that the fertility level must decrease from 4 to 2 children per woman. By 2000 when the population is expected to reach 22.4 million, the percentages of Malays, Chinese, and Indians is expected to be 61.5%, 28.7%, and 9.8% respectively. PMID:12281592

  10. Effective population size does not predict codon usage bias in mammals

    PubMed Central

    Kessler, Michael D; Dean, Matthew D

    2014-01-01

    Synonymous codons are not used at equal frequency throughout the genome, a phenomenon termed codon usage bias (CUB). It is often assumed that interspecific variation in the intensity of CUB is related to species differences in effective population sizes (Ne), with selection on CUB operating less efficiently in species with small Ne. Here, we specifically ask whether variation in Ne predicts differences in CUB in mammals and report two main findings. First, across 41 mammalian genomes, CUB was not correlated with two indirect proxies of Ne (body mass and generation time), even though there was statistically significant evidence of selection shaping CUB across all species. Interestingly, autosomal genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to X-linked genes, and high-recombination genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to low recombination genes, suggesting intraspecific variation in Ne predicts variation in CUB. Second, across six mammalian species with genetic estimates of Ne (human, chimpanzee, rabbit, and three mouse species: Mus musculus, M. domesticus, and M. castaneus), Ne and CUB were weakly and inconsistently correlated. At least in mammals, interspecific divergence in Ne does not strongly predict variation in CUB. One hypothesis is that each species responds to a unique distribution of selection coefficients, confounding any straightforward link between Ne and CUB. PMID:25505518

  11. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    PubMed

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach." PMID:12320644

  12. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (?). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. ? of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The ? value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis ? (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata ? = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that ? would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  13. Evolutionary dynamics of the most populated genotype on rugged fitness landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Kavita

    2007-09-01

    We consider an asexual population evolving on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multidimensional genotypic space and have many local optima. We track the most populated genotype as it changes when the population jumps from a fitness peak to a better one during the process of adaptation. This is done using the dynamics of the shell model which is a simplified version of the quasispecies model for infinite populations and standard Wright-Fisher dynamics for large finite populations. We show that the population fraction of a genotype obtained within the quasispecies model and the shell model match for fit genotypes and at short times, but the dynamics of the two models are identical for questions related to the most populated genotype. We calculate exactly several properties of the jumps in infinite populations, some of which were obtained numerically in previous works. We also present our preliminary simulation results for finite populations. In particular, we measure the jump distribution in time and find that it decays as t-2 as in the quasispecies problem.

  14. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Christopher N.; Brook, Barry W.

    2011-01-01

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  15. Associations and dynamics of Vibrionaceae in the environment, from the genus to the population level

    PubMed Central

    Takemura, Alison F.; Chien, Diana M.; Polz, Martin F.

    2013-01-01

    The Vibrionaceae, which encompasses several potential pathogens, including V. cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, and V. vulnificus, the deadliest seafood-borne pathogen, are a well-studied family of marine bacteria that thrive in diverse habitats. To elucidate the environmental conditions under which vibrios proliferate, numerous studies have examined correlations with bulk environmental variables—e.g., temperature, salinity, nitrogen, and phosphate—and association with potential host organisms. However, how meaningful these environmental associations are remains unclear because data are fragmented across studies with variable sampling and analysis methods. Here, we synthesize findings about Vibrio correlations and physical associations using a framework of increasingly fine environmental and taxonomic scales, to better understand their dynamics in the wild. We first conduct a meta-analysis to determine trends with respect to bulk water environmental variables, and find that while temperature and salinity are generally strongly predictive correlates, other parameters are inconsistent and overall patterns depend on taxonomic resolution. Based on the hypothesis that dynamics may better correlate with more narrowly defined niches, we review evidence for specific association with plants, algae, zooplankton, and animals. We find that Vibrio are attached to many organisms, though evidence for enrichment compared to the water column is often lacking. Additionally, contrary to the notion that they flourish predominantly while attached, Vibrio can have, at least temporarily, a free-living lifestyle and even engage in massive blooms. Fine-scale sampling from the water column has enabled identification of such lifestyle preferences for ecologically cohesive populations, and future efforts will benefit from similar analysis at fine genetic and environmental sampling scales to describe the conditions, habitats, and resources shaping Vibrio dynamics. PMID:24575082

  16. A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature.

    PubMed

    Neeman, Noga; Spotila, James R; O'Connor, Michael P

    2015-09-01

    Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals. PMID:26113190

  17. A stochastic model of evolutionary dynamics with deterministic large-population asymptotics

    E-print Network

    Simon, Burt

    : Evolutionary games Adaptive dynamics Replicator equation Evolutionary birth­death process FitnessA stochastic model of evolutionary dynamics with deterministic large-population asymptotics Burton-diffusion equation Reactive strategies Iterated prisoner's dilemma a b s t r a c t An evolutionary birth

  18. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

  19. The Population Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems

    E-print Network

    White, Andrew

    The Population Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems Martin, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems. PLoS ONE 2(7): e624. doi:10

  20. Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated landscapes

    E-print Network

    610 Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated a site) on the probability of extinction and colonization of snowshoe hare Lepus americanus across dynamics, our work also indicates that research on snowshoe hare must extend beyond simply assessing local

  1. Comprehensive Assessment and Mathematical Modeling of T Cell Population Dynamics and Homeostasis1

    E-print Network

    de Boer, Rob J.

    Comprehensive Assessment and Mathematical Modeling of T Cell Population Dynamics and Homeostasis1 from separate experimental systems and is thus patchy. We reassessed homeostasis and dynamics features of a resilient im- mune system regulated by homeostasis (1). The immune system efficacy

  2. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CACTUS MOTH, CACTOBLASTIS CACTORUM IN FLORIDA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Field populations of the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum were surveyed weekly beginning in July 2006. We sampled the native cactus, Opuntia stricta visually to determine the densities and development of immature stages. Adult males were collected using a synthetic pheromone and a sticky wing trap...

  3. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  4. Demographic heterogeneity and the dynamics of open populations.

    PubMed

    Noonburg, Erik G; Chen, Adam; Shima, Jeffrey S; Swearer, Stephen E

    2015-05-01

    Individuals vary in their phenotype and propensity for growth and survival, but the demographic consequences of this remain poorly understood. We extend previous theoretical work on benthic marine populations and formulate a new model to evaluate how demographic heterogeneity among newly settled reef fish affects population stability. We simulated settlement, growth, and mortality of a small reef fish, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillurn) in an open "subpopulation" using a delay-differential equation model framework. We modeled demographic heterogeneity with a discrete number of "quality" types, motivated by our previous empirical observations: individuals were either "high quality" (immigrants from nearby subpopulations) or "low quality" (immigrants from distant subpopulations); in our model, quality influences how quickly individuals develop at a given competitor density. Our results demonstrate how demographic heterogeneity and juvenile competition interact to qualitatively alter the effects of settlement on population stability. Specifically, our model suggests that a mixture of quality types can stabilize the equilibrium even when equal settlement of either type alone would result in an unstable equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of among-individual variation in a metapopulation context, and suggest that in systems where dispersal influences individual quality, connectivity may serve to stabilize local populations. PMID:26236830

  5. Modeling population heterogeneity in viral dynamics for chronic hepatitis C infection: Insights from Phase 3 telaprevir clinical studies.

    PubMed

    Haseltine, Eric L; Kimko, Holly; Luo, Haobin; Tolsma, John; Bartels, Doug J; Kieffer, Tara L; Garg, Varun

    2015-12-01

    Viral dynamic modelling has proven useful for designing clinical studies and predicting treatment outcomes for patients infected with the hepatitis C virus. Generally these models aim to capture and predict the on-treatment viral load dynamics from a small study of individual patients. Here, we explored extending these models (1) to clinical studies with numerous patients and (2) by incorporating additional data types, including sequence data and prior response to interferon. Data from Phase 3 clinical studies of the direct-acting antiviral telaprevir (T; total daily dose of 2250 mg) combined with pegylated-interferon alfa and ribavirin (PR) were used for the analysis. The following data in the treatment-naïve population were reserved to verify the model: (1) a T/PR regimen where T was dosed every 8 h for 8 weeks (T8(q8h)/PR) and (2) a T/PR regimen where T was dosed twice daily for 12 weeks (T12(b.i.d.)/PR). The resulting model accurately predicted (1) sustained virologic response rates for both of these dosing regimens and (2) viral breakthrough characteristics of the T8(q8h)/PR regimen. Since the observed viral variants depend on the T exposure, the second verification suggested that the model was correctly sensitive to the different T regimen even though the model was developed using data from another T regimen. Furthermore, the model predicted that b.i.d. T dosing was comparable to q8h T dosing in the PR-experienced population, a comparison that has not been made in a controlled clinical study. The methods developed in this work to estimate the variability occurring below the limit of detection for the viral load were critical for making accurate predictions. PMID:26289844

  6. Wolbachia and cytoplasmic incompatibility in the California Culex pipiens mosquito species complex: parameter estimates and infection dynamics in natural populations.

    PubMed Central

    Rasgon, Jason L; Scott, Thomas W

    2003-01-01

    Before maternally inherited bacterial symbionts like Wolbachia, which cause cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI; reduced hatch rate) when infected males mate with uninfected females, can be used in a program to control vector-borne diseases it is essential to understand their dynamics of infection in natural arthropod vector populations. Our study had four goals: (1) quantify the number of Wolbachia strains circulating in the California Culex pipiens species complex, (2) investigate Wolbachia infection frequencies and distribution in natural California populations, (3) estimate the parameters that govern Wolbachia spread among Cx. pipiens under laboratory and field conditions, and (4) use these values to estimate equilibrium levels and compare predicted infection prevalence levels to those observed in nature. Strain-specific PCR, wsp gene sequencing, and crossing experiments indicated that a single Wolbachia strain infects Californian Cx. pipiens. Infection frequency was near or at fixation in all populations sampled for 2 years along a >1000-km north-south transect. The combined statewide infection frequency was 99.4%. Incompatible crosses were 100% sterile under laboratory and field conditions. Sterility decreased negligibly with male age in the laboratory. Infection had no significant effect on female fecundity under laboratory or field conditions. Vertical transmission was >99% in the laboratory and approximately 98.6% in the field. Using field data, models predicted that Wolbachia will spread to fixation if infection exceeds an unstable equilibrium point above 1.4%. Our estimates accurately predicted infection frequencies in natural populations. If certain technical hurdles can be overcome, our data indicate that Wolbachia can invade vector populations as part of an applied transgenic strategy for vector-borne disease reduction. PMID:14704183

  7. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  8. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  9. Correlation and prediction of dynamic human isolated joint strength from lean body mass

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pandya, Abhilash K.; Hasson, Scott M.; Aldridge, Ann M.; Maida, James C.; Woolford, Barbara J.

    1992-01-01

    A relationship between a person's lean body mass and the amount of maximum torque that can be produced with each isolated joint of the upper extremity was investigated. The maximum dynamic isolated joint torque (upper extremity) on 14 subjects was collected using a dynamometer multi-joint testing unit. These data were reduced to a table of coefficients of second degree polynomials, computed using a least squares regression method. All the coefficients were then organized into look-up tables, a compact and convenient storage/retrieval mechanism for the data set. Data from each joint, direction and velocity, were normalized with respect to that joint's average and merged into files (one for each curve for a particular joint). Regression was performed on each one of these files to derive a table of normalized population curve coefficients for each joint axis, direction, and velocity. In addition, a regression table which included all upper extremity joints was built which related average torque to lean body mass for an individual. These two tables are the basis of the regression model which allows the prediction of dynamic isolated joint torques from an individual's lean body mass.

  10. The role of insect dispersal and migration in population processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rabb, R. L.; Stinner, R. E.

    1979-01-01

    Movement functions in the population dynamics of insects are discussed. Modes of movement, movement from a population view, and population patterns are described and predicted. A wide-area of spatial and temporal patterns are presented.

  11. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable. PMID:22812118

  12. Comparison of Genomic Selection Models to Predict Flowering Time and Spike Grain Number in Two Hexaploid Wheat Doubled Haploid Populations.

    PubMed

    Thavamanikumar, Saravanan; Dolferus, Rudy; Thumma, Bala R

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is becoming an important selection tool in crop breeding. In this study, we compared the ability of different GS models to predict time to young microspore (TYM), a flowering time-related trait, spike grain number under control conditions (SGNC) and spike grain number under osmotic stress conditions (SGNO) in two wheat biparental doubled haploid populations with unrelated parents. Prediction accuracies were compared using BayesB, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Bayesian LASSO / BL), ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP), partial least square regression (PLS), and sparse partial least square regression (SPLS) models. Prediction accuracy was tested with 10-fold cross-validation within a population and with independent validation in which marker effects from one population were used to predict traits in the other population. High prediction accuracies were obtained for TYM (0.51-0.84), whereas moderate to low accuracies were observed for SGNC (0.10-0.42) and SGNO (0.27-0.46) using cross-validation. Prediction accuracies based on independent validation are generally lower than those based on cross-validation. BayesB and SPLS outperformed all other models in predicting TYM with both cross-validation and independent validation. Although the accuracies of all models are similar in predicting SGNC and SGNO with cross-validation, BayesB and SPLS had the highest accuracy in predicting SGNC with independent validation. In independent validation, accuracies of all the models increased by using only the QTL-linked markers. Results from this study indicate that BayesB and SPLS capture the linkage disequilibrium between markers and traits effectively leading to higher accuracies. Excluding markers from QTL studies reduces prediction accuracies. PMID:26206349

  13. Comparison of Genomic Selection Models to Predict Flowering Time and Spike Grain Number in Two Hexaploid Wheat Doubled Haploid Populations

    PubMed Central

    Thavamanikumar, Saravanan; Dolferus, Rudy; Thumma, Bala R.

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is becoming an important selection tool in crop breeding. In this study, we compared the ability of different GS models to predict time to young microspore (TYM), a flowering time-related trait, spike grain number under control conditions (SGNC) and spike grain number under osmotic stress conditions (SGNO) in two wheat biparental doubled haploid populations with unrelated parents. Prediction accuracies were compared using BayesB, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Bayesian LASSO / BL), ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP), partial least square regression (PLS), and sparse partial least square regression (SPLS) models. Prediction accuracy was tested with 10-fold cross-validation within a population and with independent validation in which marker effects from one population were used to predict traits in the other population. High prediction accuracies were obtained for TYM (0.51–0.84), whereas moderate to low accuracies were observed for SGNC (0.10–0.42) and SGNO (0.27–0.46) using cross-validation. Prediction accuracies based on independent validation are generally lower than those based on cross-validation. BayesB and SPLS outperformed all other models in predicting TYM with both cross-validation and independent validation. Although the accuracies of all models are similar in predicting SGNC and SGNO with cross-validation, BayesB and SPLS had the highest accuracy in predicting SGNC with independent validation. In independent validation, accuracies of all the models increased by using only the QTL-linked markers. Results from this study indicate that BayesB and SPLS capture the linkage disequilibrium between markers and traits effectively leading to higher accuracies. Excluding markers from QTL studies reduces prediction accuracies. PMID:26206349

  14. In situ population dynamics of bacterial viruses in a terrestrial environment

    PubMed

    Ashelford; Day; Bailey; Lilley; Fry

    1999-01-01

    Predation by bacteriophages is thought to control bacterial numbers and facilitate gene transfer among bacteria in the biosphere. A thorough understanding of phage population dynamics is therefore necessary if their significance in natural environments is to be fully appreciated. Here we describe the in situ population dynamics of three separate phage populations predating on separate bacterial species, living on the surface of field-grown sugar beet (Beta vulgaris var. Amethyst), as recorded over a 9-month period. The distributions of the three phage populations were different and fluctuated temporally in 1996 (peak density, approximately 10(3) PFU g-1). One of these populations, predating on the indigenous phytosphere bacterium Serratia liquefaciens CP6, consisted of six genetically distinct DNA phages that varied in relative abundance to the extent that an apparent temporal succession was observed between the two most abundant phages, PhiCP6-1 and PhiCP6-4. PMID:9872776

  15. First Evidence and Predictions of Plasmodium Transmission in Alaskan Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J.; Cornel, Anthony J.; Guers, Sue L.; Dodge, Molly; Marzec, Timothy; Carlson, Jenny S.; Seppi, Bruce; Sehgal, Ravinder N. M.

    2012-01-01

    The unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic climate is expected to have major impacts on the emergence of infectious diseases and host susceptibility to these diseases. It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming. Here we show for the first time that avian Plasmodium transmission occurs in the North American Arctic. Over a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, from 61°N to 67°N, we collected blood samples of resident and migratory bird species. We found both residents and hatch year birds infected with Plasmodium as far north as 64°N, providing clear evidence that malaria transmission occurs in these climates. Based on our empirical data, we make the first projections of the habitat suitability for Plasmodium under a future-warming scenario in Alaska. These findings raise new concerns about the spread of malaria to naïve host populations. PMID:23028595

  16. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    SciTech Connect

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy; Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S.; Shara, Michael M.; Dotter, Aaron; Fahlman, Gregory G.; Rich, R. Michael E-mail: heyl@phas.ubc.ca E-mail: jkalarai@stsci.edu E-mail: aaron.dotter@gmail.com E-mail: rmr@astro.ucla.edu

    2013-07-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  17. Self-organized populations interacting under pursuit-evasion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goudon, Thierry; Nkonga, Boniface; Rascle, Michel; Ribot, Magali

    2015-06-01

    We discuss the modeling of interacting populations through pursuit-evasion-or attraction-repulsion-principles : preys try to escape chasers, chasers are attracted by the presence of preys. We construct a hierarchy of models, ranging from ODEs systems with finite numbers of individuals of each population, to hydrodynamic systems. First-order macroscopic models look like generalized "two-species Keller-Segel equations". But, due to cross-interactions, we can show that the system does not exhibit any blow up phenomena in finite time. We also obtain second-order models, that have the form of systems of balance laws, derived from kinetic models. We bring out a few remarkable features of the models based either on mathematical analysis or numerical simulations.

  18. Predictability of time averages. I - Dynamical predictability of monthly means. II - The influence of the boundary forcings. [for weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, J.

    1984-01-01

    The physical basis for the dynamic prediction of monthly means in weather parameters is examined in two papers. In the first paper, an attempt is made to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. In the second paper, the physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, and snow influence atmospheric circulation are discussed. On the basis of both studies, the essential requirements for establishing the physical basis for dynamical prediction of monthly means are to show that: (1) fluctuations of monthly means are larger than can be expected due to sampling of day-to-day weather changes; (2) there are low frequency planetary scale components of circulation which remain predictable beyond the limits of synoptic scale predictability; and (3) the influences of the slowly varying boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, snow, sea ice are large enough to produce significant and detectable changes in the monthly mean circulations. Observational and numerical evidence which support these requirements are presented.

  19. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    PubMed Central

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species’ realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species’ niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species’ competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models. PMID:25722536

  20. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yackulic, Charles Brandon; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern spotted owl occupancy declines. Our analysis suggests that dispersal limitation affects both the invasion dynamics and the scale at which the effects of competition are observed. We also provide predictions regarding the potential costs and benefits of managing barred owl populations at different target levels.