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1

Modeling and prediction of cell population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Oscillatory yeast cell dynamics are observed in glucose-limited growth environments. Under such conditions, both glucose and the excreted product ethanol can serve as substrates for cell growth. The cell dynamics is described by a PDE (partial differential equation) system containing one PDE for the cell population and 8 ODEs for 8 substrates variations (extracellular glucose, extracellular ethanol, intracellular glucose, intracellular

Youngil Lima

2

Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments  

Microsoft Academic Search

I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model pre- dictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus ,t o examine how geographic

2008-01-01

3

A predictive model for gypsy moth population dynamics with model validation  

Microsoft Academic Search

A simple model for gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), population dynamics is presented. Comparison with data from the Melrose Highlands study shows the model to exhibit the same qualitative and quantitative behavior as the data. Predictions are made about future outbreaks using only a portion of the field data to fit the model parameters. Comparison of these predictions with

J. W Wilder

1999-01-01

4

Population Dynamics  

PubMed Central

This chapter reviews aspects of population dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito populations, primarily because it can lead to compensatory or overcompensatory mortality due to additions of a biological control agent. This can result in control efforts leading to no change in the target population, or actual increases in the target population, respectively. Density dependent effects, and compensatory or overcompensatory mortality, appear to be most common in mosquitoes from container or highly ephemeral habitats. In permanent ground water habitats generalist predators appear to limit mosquito populations and so render mortality additive. Thus, biological control in permanent ground water habitats seems to have the highest likelihood of producing a satisfactory result. A central premise of classical biological control is that pest populations are reduced by enemies to stable equilibrium levels that are both below the pre-control equilibrium level, and well below the level producing detrimental effects. This premise results in predictions that successful biological control is likely to involve specialist enemies (usually parasitoids), with short generation times relative to the victim, high rates of successful search, rapid rates of increase, and needing only a few victims to complete their life cycle. These predictions largely fail for mosquito systems, in which successful biological control seems to be associated with generalist enemies that can kill a large portion of the target population, often causing local extinction, and can persist in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus contrasting sharply with classical biological control. This review suggests a need for better data on density dependent regulation of mosquito populations. PMID:17853611

Juliano, Steven A.

2007-01-01

5

Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments.  

PubMed

I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges. PMID:18171140

Buckley, Lauren B

2008-01-01

6

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.  

PubMed

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology. PMID:23535615

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

7

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

8

Predicting Relapsing-Remitting Dynamics in Multiple Sclerosis Using Discrete Distribution Models: A Population Approach  

PubMed Central

Background Relapsing-remitting dynamics are a hallmark of autoimmune diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis (MS). A clinical relapse in MS reflects an acute focal inflammatory event in the central nervous system that affects signal conduction by damaging myelinated axons. Those events are evident in T1-weighted post-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as contrast enhancing lesions (CEL). CEL dynamics are considered unpredictable and are characterized by high intra- and inter-patient variability. Here, a population approach (nonlinear mixed-effects models) was applied to analyse of CEL progression, aiming to propose a model that adequately captures CEL dynamics. Methods and Findings We explored several discrete distribution models to CEL counts observed in nine MS patients undergoing a monthly MRI for 48 months. All patients were enrolled in the study free of immunosuppressive drugs, except for intravenous methylprednisolone or oral prednisone taper for a clinical relapse. Analyses were performed with the nonlinear mixed-effect modelling software NONMEM 7.2. Although several models were able to adequately characterize the observed CEL dynamics, the negative binomial distribution model had the best predictive ability. Significant improvements in fitting were observed when the CEL counts from previous months were incorporated to predict the current month’s CEL count. The predictive capacity of the model was validated using a second cohort of fourteen patients who underwent monthly MRIs during 6-months. This analysis also identified and quantified the effect of steroids for the relapse treatment. Conclusions The model was able to characterize the observed relapsing-remitting CEL dynamic and to quantify the inter-patient variability. Moreover, the nature of the effect of steroid treatment suggested that this therapy helps resolve older CELs yet does not affect newly appearing active lesions in that month. This model could be used for design of future longitudinal studies and clinical trials, as well as for the evaluation of new therapies. PMID:24039924

Velez de Mendizabal, Nieves; Hutmacher, Matthew M.; Troconiz, Inaki F.; Goni, Joaquin; Villoslada, Pablo; Bagnato, Francesca; Bies, Robert R.

2013-01-01

9

Predicting the growth of a small introduced muskox population using population prediction intervals  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary 1. A key issue in ecology is the prediction of future population fluctuations. Such population predictions are fundamental for population-viability analysis and are essential for assessing the implications of various management actions. Development of reliable population predictions is however, difficult because it requires estimation and modelling of the separate effects of the deterministic components of the population dynamics as

EINAR J. ASBJORNSEN; BERNT-ERIK SAETHER; JOHN D. C. LINNELL; STEINAR ENGEN; REIDAR ANDERSEN; TORD BRETTEN

2005-01-01

10

Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.  

PubMed

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3?months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3?months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3?months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. PMID:23176630

Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

2013-11-01

11

Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data.  

PubMed

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000-06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Loehman, Rachel A; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J; Kuenzi, Amy J; Mills, James N; Wagoner, Kent

2012-04-01

12

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA  

PubMed Central

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

13

Modeling Gag (Mycteroperca Microlepis) Population Dynamics To Predict Optimal Reserve Strategy  

Microsoft Academic Search

Marine reserves are proposed not only as a management strategy but also as a proxy for un-fished conditions. As fishing pressures have risen over time, scientists have had no way to control for fishing in populations being studied. With the help of models, we can begin to understand the effects of heavy fishing on populations by comparing them with “un-fished

Erin Elizabeth Simmons

2011-01-01

14

Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a  

E-print Network

S T R A C T The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most characteristics that ultimately drive population dynamics. Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) are com- mon

Koprowski, John L.

15

Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain  

Microsoft Academic Search

The understanding of population dynamics is a central issue for managing large mammals. Modeling has allowed population ecologists to increase their knowledge about complex systems and better predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear sensitive to harvest, but the relative influence of survival and reproductive rates on their population dynamics are not well understood. Using longitudinal

SANDRA HAMEL; STEEVE D. COTE; MARCO FESTA-BIANCHET

16

Research Article Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain  

E-print Network

predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear, Oreamnos americanus, population dynamics, sensitivity analysis. A complex but central goal in population

Festa-Bianchet, Marco

17

Student Instructions Population Dynamics  

E-print Network

to assume certain requirements for both species' survival and reproduction. In this simulation, we will use as population dynamics. A population of bunnies, for instance, may increase due to reproduction or migration to survive and reproduce. This process will be repeated for 20 rounds, and in each round, a varying number

Spakowitz, Andrew J.

18

Uncertainty analysis of transient population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Two types of demographic analyses, perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis, can be conducted to gain insights about matrix population models and guide population management. Perturbation analysis studies how the perturbation of demographic parameters (survival, growth, and reproduction parameters) may affect the population projection, while uncertainty analysis evaluates how much uncertainty there is in population dynamic predictions and where the uncertainty

Chonggang Xu; George Z. Gertner

2009-01-01

19

A spatiotemporal model for predicting grain aphid population dynamics and optimizing insecticide sprays at the scale of continental France.  

PubMed

We expose here a detailed spatially explicit model of aphid population dynamics at the scale of a whole country (Metropolitan France). It is based on convection-diffusion-reaction equations, driven by abiotic and biotic factors. The target species is the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae F., considering both its winged and apterous morphs. In this preliminary work, simulations for year 2004 (an outbreak case) produced realistic aphid densities, and showed that both spatial and temporal S. avenae population dynamics can be represented as an irregular wave of population peak densities from southwest to northeast of the country, driven by gradients or differences in temperature, wheat phenology, and wheat surfaces. This wave pattern fits well to our knowledge of S. avenae phenology. The effects of three insecticide spray regimes were simulated in five different sites and showed that insecticide sprays were ineffective in terms of yield increase after wheat flowering. After suitable validation, which will require some further years of observations, the model will be used to forecast aphid densities in real time at any date or growth stage of the crop anywhere in the country. It will be the backbone of a decision support system, forecasting yield losses at the level of a field. The model intends then to complete the punctual forecasting provided by older models by a comprehensive spatial view on a large area and leads to the diminution of insecticide sprayings in wheat crops. PMID:24271722

Ciss, Mamadou; Parisey, Nicolas; Moreau, Fabrice; Dedryver, Charles-Antoine; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien

2014-04-01

20

Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony  

Microsoft Academic Search

The search for mechanisms behind spatial population synchrony is currently a major issue in population ecology. Theoretical studies highlight how synchronizing mechanisms such as dispersal, regionally correlated climatic variables and mobile enemies might interact with local dynamics to produce different patterns of spatial covariance. Specialized statistical methods, applied to large-scale survey data, aid in testing the theoretical predictions with empirical

Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Rolf A. Ims; Xavier Lambin

1999-01-01

21

Animal Population Dynamics Jennifer Gervais  

E-print Network

1 Animal Population Dynamics Jennifer Gervais Weniger 449 737-6122 jennifer Press. In The Beginning... Population fluctuations of animals have been recognized for millenia However of epidemic diseases among wild animals 1942: Voles, Mice and Lemmings: Problems in Population Dynamics 1958

Gervais, Jennifer

22

Combining mathematical models and statistical methods to understand and predict the dynamics of antibiotic-sensitive mutants in a population of resistant bacteria during experimental evolution.  

PubMed

Temporarily discontinuing the use of antibiotics has been proposed as a means to eliminate resistant bacteria by allowing sensitive clones to sweep through the population. In this study, we monitored a tetracycline-sensitive subpopulation that emerged during experimental evolution of E. coli K12 MG1655 carrying the multiresistance plasmid pB10 in the absence of antibiotics. The fraction of tetracycline-sensitive mutants increased slowly over 500 generations from 0.1 to 7%, and loss of resistance could be attributed to a recombination event that caused deletion of the tet operon. To help understand the population dynamics of these mutants, three mathematical models were developed that took into consideration recurrent mutations, increased host fitness (selection), or a combination of both mechanisms (full model). The data were best explained by the full model, which estimated a high mutation frequency (lambda = 3.11 x 10(-5)) and a significant but small selection coefficient (sigma = 0.007). This study emphasized the combined use of experimental data, mathematical models, and statistical methods to better understand and predict the dynamics of evolving bacterial populations, more specifically the possible consequences of discontinuing the use of antibiotics. PMID:15579675

De Gelder, Leen; Ponciano, José M; Abdo, Zaid; Joyce, Paul; Forney, Larry J; Top, Eva M

2004-11-01

23

Perturbation Theory for Population Dynamics  

E-print Network

We prove that a recently proposed homotopy perturbation method for the treatment of population dynamics is just the Taylor expansion of the population variables about initial time. Our results show that this perturbation method fails to provide the global features of the ecosystem dynamics.

Francisco M. Fernandez

2007-12-20

24

The Population Dynamics of Plants  

Microsoft Academic Search

Long-term studies of plant populations are reviewed, and their dynamics summarized in three categories. Many short-lived plants have ephemeral, pulsed dynamics lasting only a single generation, with recruitment determined almost entirely by germination biology and by the frequency and intensity of disturbance. Such populations are not amenable to traditional population models. At the other extreme, some long-lived plants have such

Michael J. Crawley

1990-01-01

25

Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change  

E-print Network

Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird B.-E. Sæther,1 attention be- cause of the need to predict the biological consequences of climate change (2). To an- swer of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density

Tufto, Jarle

26

Population dynamics in compressible flows  

E-print Network

Organisms often grow, migrate and compete in liquid environments, as well as on solid surfaces. However, relatively little is known about what happens when competing species are mixed and compressed by fluid turbulence. In these lectures we review our recent work on population dynamics and population genetics in compressible velocity fields of one and two dimensions. We discuss why compressible turbulence is relevant for population dynamics in the ocean and we consider cases both where the velocity field is turbulent and when it is static. Furthermore, we investigate populations in terms of a continuos density field and when the populations are treated via discrete particles. In the last case we focus on the competition and fixation of one species compared to another

Roberto Benzi; Mogens H. Jensen; David R. Nelson; Prasad Perlekar; Simone Pigolotti; Federico Toschi

2012-03-28

27

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors  

PubMed Central

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

28

Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

2008-12-01

29

PREDICTING WILDLIFE POPULATION EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE STRESSORS  

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

30

Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon  

E-print Network

15 Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon In-Sik Kang and Jagadish Shukla In this chapter we present a historical review of the hypothesis of boundary forced predictability of the monsoon and the limitations and challenges in dynamical seasonal prediction of monsoon rainfall. We also present an assessment

Kang, In-Sik

31

Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

2013-03-01

32

Population size predicts technological complexity in Oceania  

PubMed Central

Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. PMID:20392733

Kline, Michelle A.; Boyd, Robert

2010-01-01

33

Predicting how populations decline to extinction  

PubMed Central

Global species extinction typically represents the endpoint in a long sequence of population declines and local extinctions. In comparative studies of extinction risk of contemporary mammalian species, there appear to be some universal traits that may predispose taxa to an elevated risk of extinction. In local population-level studies, there are limited insights into the process of population decline and extinction. Moreover, there is still little appreciation of how local processes scale up to global patterns. Advancing the understanding of factors which predispose populations to rapid declines will benefit proactive conservation and may allow us to target at-risk populations as well as at-risk species. Here, we take mammalian population trend data from the largest repository of population abundance trends, and combine it with the PanTHERIA database on mammal traits to answer the question: what factors can be used to predict decline in mammalian abundance? We find in general that environmental variables are better determinants of cross-species population-level decline than intrinsic biological traits. For effective conservation, we must not only describe which species are at risk and why, but also prescribe ways to counteract this. PMID:21807738

Collen, Ben; McRae, Louise; Deinet, Stefanie; De Palma, Adriana; Carranza, Tharsila; Cooper, Natalie; Loh, Jonathan; Baillie, Jonathan E. M.

2011-01-01

34

Sex in space: population dynamic consequences  

PubMed Central

Sex, so important in the reproduction of bigametic species, is nonetheless often ignored in explorations of the dynamics of populations. Using a growth model of dispersal-coupled populations we can keep track of fluctuations in numbers of females and males. The sexes may differ from each other in their ability to disperse and their sensitivity to population density. As a further complication, the breeding system is either monogamous or polygamous. We use the harmonic mean birth function to account for sex-ratio-dependent population growth in a Moran–Ricker population renewal process. Incorporating the spatial dimension stabilizes the dynamics of populations with monogamy as the breeding system, but does not stabilize the population dynamics of polygamous species. Most notably, in populations coupled with dispersal, where the sexes differ in their dispersal ability there are rarely stable and equal sex ratios. Rather, a two-point cycle, four-point cycle and eventually complex behaviour of sex-ratio dynamics will emerge with increasing birth rates. Monogamy often leads to less noisy sex-ratio dynamics than polygamy. In our model, the sex-ratio dynamics of coupled populations differ from those of an isolated population system, where a stable 50:50 sex ratio is achievable with equal density-dependence costs for females and males. When sexes match in their dispersal ability, population dynamics and sex-ratio dynamics of coupled populations collapse to those of isolated populations.

Ranta, E.; Kaitala, V.; m, J. Lindstr

1999-01-01

35

Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks  

PubMed Central

Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics. PMID:19889700

Matter, Stephen F.; Roland, Jens

2010-01-01

36

Population dynamics at high Reynolds number  

E-print Network

We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying capacity. The statistical properties of the population density are investigated and quantified via multifractal scaling analysis. We also investigate numerically the singular limit of negligibly small growth rates and delocalization of population ridges triggered by uniform advection.

Prasad Perlekar; Roberto Benzi; David R. Nelson; Federico Toschi

2010-06-16

37

Galactic Populations, Chemistry and Dynamics  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Between the early 40s, when Baade showed the first evidence for the existence of two distinct stellar populations, and today, with our Galaxy surprising us with new substructures discovered almost on a monthly basis, it is clear that a remarkable progress has been achieved in our understanding of the Galaxy, of its structure and stellar populations, and of its chemical and dynamical signatures. Yet, some questions have remained open and have proven to be very challenging. The main task of this Working Group has been to review the state-of- the-art knowledge of the Milky Way galaxy, to identify the future challenges, and to propose which tools (in terms of facilities, infrastructures, instruments, science policies) would be needed to successfully tackle and solve the remaining open questions. Considering the leadership position that Europe has reached in the field of Galactic astronomy (thanks to the Hipparcos mission and the Very Large Telescope) and looking at the (near-) future major initiatives it has undertaken (VISTA and VST survey telescopes, Gaia mission), this work clearly has been very timely. It is of uttermost importance for European astronomy to keep and further consolidate its leading position. This Working Group has made recommendations that would allow dissecting our backyard laboratory, the Galaxy, even further. ESO survey telescopes about to become operational and the upcoming ESA Gaia mission are a guarantee for opening new horizons and making new discoveries. We, the astronomers, with the support of our funding agencies, are ready to fully commit to the best exploitation of the treasure that is ahead of us. The main recommendations this Working Group has made to ESA and ESO are to guarantee the expected tremendous capabilities of these new facilities, to vigourously organise their synergies and to jointly give ways to European astronomers to be leaders in the exploitation of their output data.

Turon, C.; Primas, F.; Binney, J.; Chiappini, C.; Drew, J.; Helmi, A.; Robin, A. C.; Ryan, S. G.

2008-09-01

38

Parental environmental effects and cyclical dynamics in plant populations.  

PubMed

Parental environmental effects have been widely reported in plants, but these effects are often weak relative to direct effects of current environmental conditions. Few studies have asked when consideration of such effects is necessary to understand long-term plant population dynamics. In this article, I show that inclusion of effects of parental density on offspring mass fundamentally changes population dynamics models by making recruitment a function of population size in two previous generations (Nt+1 = f(Nt, Nt-1)), rather than one (Nt+1 = f(Nt,)). Models without parental density effects predict either stable population dynamics or sharp crashes from high to low population size (flip bifurcations). When parental effects are at least one-third the size of direct density effects, gradual cycles from high to low population size (Hopf bifurcations) are possible. In this study, I measured effects of parental and offspring density on offspring quality in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica, by manipulating plant density independently in parent and offspring generations and by comparing the effects of parent and offspring density on offspring performance. Parental density effects were detectable but were noticeably weaker than offspring density effects. Nonetheless, the parental effect was large enough to change population dynamics predictions. Thus, parental effects may be an important component of the numerical dynamics of plant populations. PMID:18811332

Crone, E E

1997-12-01

39

Dynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma  

E-print Network

Dynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma University of Idaho Computer Science of genetic algorithms (GA). In particular, we test five dynamic population-sizing patterns: random. General Terms Algorithms. Keywords: Dynamic Population, Fluctuating Population, Genetic Algorithms

Krings, Axel W.

40

Gross Migration, Housing and Urban Population Dynamics  

E-print Network

Gross Migration, Housing and Urban Population Dynamics Morris A. Davis University of Wisconsin population changes are dominated by variation in net migration, and we argue that understanding gross migration is essential to quantify how net migration may slow population adjustments. Housing is also

Shyu, Mei-Ling

41

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

42

Anatomy of a chaotic attractor: Subtle model-predicted patterns revealed in population data  

E-print Network

of a demographic parameter induced a sequence of model-predicted dynamic transitions (bifurcations) including a transition to chaos. These studies revealed that, in biological population data, the signal of deter

Cushing, Jim. M.

43

Encroaching forests decouple alpine butterfly population dynamics  

PubMed Central

Over the past 50 years, the rising tree line along Jumpingpound Ridge in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada, has reduced the area of alpine meadows and isolated populations that reside within them. By analyzing an 11-year data set of butterfly population sizes for 17 subpopulations along the ridge, we show that forest habitat separating alpine meadows decouples the dynamics of populations of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus. Although the distance between populations is often negatively correlated with synchrony of dynamics, here we show that distance through forest, not Euclidean distance, determines the degree of synchrony. This effect is consistent with previous results demonstrating that encroaching forest reduces dispersal among populations and reduces gene flow. Decoupling dynamics produces more smaller independent populations, each with greater risk of local extinction, but decoupling may produce a lower risk of regional extinction in this capricious environment. PMID:17699630

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F.

2007-01-01

44

Computational prediction of airfoil dynamic stall  

Microsoft Academic Search

The term dynamic stall refers to unsteady flow separation occurring on aerodynamic bodies, such as airfoils and wings, which execute an unsteady motion. The prediction of dynamic stall is important for flight vehicle, turbomachinery, and wind turbine applications. Due to the complicated flow physics of the dynamic stall phenomenon the industry has been forced to use empirical methods for its

John A. Ekaterinaris; Max F. Platzer

1998-01-01

45

Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling for Saccharomyces cerevisiae population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling is powerful however under-used to model and evaluate the risks associated with the development of pathogens in food industry, to predict exotic invasions, species extinctions and development of emerging diseases, or to assess chemical risks. Modelling population dynamics of Saccharomyces cerevisiae considering its biodiversity and other sources of variability is crucial for selecting strains meeting industrial needs.

Aymé Spor; Christine Dillmann; Shaoxiao Wang; Dominique de Vienne; Delphine Sicard; Eric Parent

2010-01-01

46

Population Dynamics, Demography, Dispersal and Spread of Bemisia tabaci  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a Understanding the population-level processes of any pest insect is central to predicting temporal and spatial changes in abundance\\u000a and occurrence, as well as in developing effective pest management strategies, whether on single crops on individual farms\\u000a or multiple crops within agricultural landscapes. Four components drive population dynamics in the time-space continuum: birth\\u000a rates, death rates, immigration rates, and emigration rates.

Steven E. Naranjo; Steven J. Castle; Paul J. De Barro; Shu-Sheng Liu

47

Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography  

PubMed Central

Population dynamics result from the interplay of density-independent and density-dependent processes. Understanding this interplay is important, especially for being able to predict near-term population trajectories for management. In recent years, the study of model systems—experimental, observational and theoretical—has shed considerable light on the way that the both density-dependent and -independent aspects of the environment affect population dynamics via impacting on the organism's life history and therefore demography. These model-based approaches suggest that (i) individuals in different states differ in their demographic performance, (ii) these differences generate structure that can fluctuate independently of current total population size and so can influence the dynamics in important ways, (iii) individuals are strongly affected by both current and past environments, even when the past environments may be in previous generations and (iv) dynamics are typically complex and transient due to environmental noise perturbing complex population structures. For understanding population dynamics of any given system, we suggest that ‘the devil is in the detail’. Experimental dissection of empirical systems is providing important insights into the details of the drivers of demographic responses and therefore dynamics and should also stimulate theory that incorporates relevant biological mechanism. PMID:16720388

Benton, Tim G; Plaistow, Stewart J; Coulson, Tim N

2006-01-01

48

Cyclic dynamics of eastern Canadian ermine populations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Based on partial autocorrelation analysis, 20 ermine (Mustela erminea) populations in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec demonstrated cyclic dynamics characterized by a latitudinal gradient of decreasing first-order feedback and increasing negativity of second-order feedback. Most of these populations exhibited three cyclic peaks and a 10-year interval of noncyclic dynamics during the sampling period (1915-1940). Changes in ermine density probably reflected those

Donald R. Johnson; Bradley J. Swanson; Judith L. Eger

2000-01-01

49

Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

2013-07-01

50

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

51

Population dynamics viewed in feedback control †  

Microsoft Academic Search

Population dynamics, an important problem in ecology and demography, is nothing but a positive feedback, so it is natural to study it by feedback control technique. In this paper the fundamental relation and characteristic equation for population systems are derived with reference to an improved Lexis diagram based on the concept of feedback. These results are then confirmed by differential

1973-01-01

52

Relating individual behaviour to population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

How do the behavioural interactions between individuals in an ecological system produce the global population dynamics of that system? We present a stochastic individual-based model of the reproductive cycle of the mite Varroa jacobsoni, a parasite of honeybees. The model has the interesting property in that its population level behaviour is approximated extremely accurately by the exponential logistic equation or

D. J. T. Sumpter; D. S. Broomhead

2001-01-01

53

Population Dynamics of Some Mutualistic Relationships  

Microsoft Academic Search

Symbiosis or mutualism is one of major ecological interactions between two species, where the both species gain benefits via the interactions. We consider the population dynamics of mutualistic interactions with positive density and frequency dependences. We specifically suppose the dynamics of Müllerian mimicry in butterflies for positive density dependence, where the mortality of both species is reduced depending on the

J. Yoshimura; H. Amagai; T. Suzuki; T. Togashi; T. Miyazaki

54

Size Dependent Population Dynamics of Microtus Ochrogaster  

E-print Network

. 7:1-300. Bosch, C. A. 1971. Redwoods: a population model. Science (Wash., D.C.) 172:345-349. Brown, E . B., III. 1973. Changes in patterns of seasonal growth of Microtus pennsylvanicus. Ecology 54:1103-1110. Caswell, H. 1978. A general formula...Vol. 127, No. 6 The American Naturalist June 1986 SIZE-DEPENDENT POPULATION DYNAMICS OF MICROTUS OCHROGASTER Lefkovitch (1965#) generalized Leslie's (1945) matrix model of age-structured population growth to include stage-transition matrices...

Sauer, John R.; Slade, Norman A.

1986-06-01

55

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) – Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations  

Microsoft Academic Search

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements,

Patrick Lehodey; Inna Senina; Raghu Murtugudde

2008-01-01

56

Accuracy of genomic prediction when combining two related crossbred populations.  

PubMed

Charolais bulls are selected for their crossbreed performance when mated to Montbéliard or Holstein dams. To implement genomic prediction, one could build a reference population for each crossbred population independently. An alternative could be to combine both crossbred populations into a single reference population to increase size and accuracy of prediction. The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction by combining different crossbred populations. Three scenarios were considered: 1) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the same crossbred population, 2) combining the 2 crossbred populations into 1 reference to predict phenotype of animals from 1 crossbred population, and 3) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the other crossbred population. Traits studied were bone thinness, height, and muscular development. Phenotypes and 45,117 SNP genotypes were available for 1,764 Montbéliard × Charolais calves and 447 Holstein × Charolais calves. The population was randomly spilt into 10 subgroups, which were assigned to the validation one by one. To allow fair comparison between scenarios, size of the reference population was kept constant for all scenarios. Breeding values were estimated with BLUP and genomic BLUP. Accuracy of prediction was calculated as the correlation between the EBV and the phenotypic values of the calves in the validation divided by the square root of the heritability. Genomic BLUP showed higher accuracies (between 0.281 and 0.473) than BLUP (between 0.197 and 0.452). Accuracies tended to be highest when prediction was within 1 crossbred population, intermediate when populations were combined into the reference population, and lowest when prediction was across populations. Decrease in accuracy from a prediction within 1 population to a prediction across populations was more pronounced for bone thinness (-27%) and height (-29%) than for muscular development (-14%). Genetic correlation between the 2 crossbred populations was estimated using pedigree relationships. It was 0.70 for bone thinness, 0.80 for height, and 0.99 for muscular development. Genetic correlation indicates the expected gain in accuracy of prediction when combining different populations into 1 reference population. The larger the genetic correlation is, the larger the benefit is to combine populations for genomic prediction. PMID:25149337

Vallée, A; van Arendonk, J A M; Bovenhuis, H

2014-10-01

57

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses  

PubMed Central

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

Rother, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

58

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.  

PubMed

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha). PMID:16705962

Newman, K B; Buckland, S T; Lindley, S T; Thomas, L; Fernández, C

2006-02-01

59

Mutator dynamics in sexual and asexual experimental populations of yeast  

Microsoft Academic Search

Background  In asexual populations, mutators may be expected to hitchhike with associated beneficial mutations. In sexual populations,\\u000a recombination is predicted to erode such associations, inhibiting mutator hitchhiking. To investigate the effect of recombination\\u000a on mutators experimentally, we compared the frequency dynamics of a mutator allele (msh2?) in sexual and asexual populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.\\u000a \\u000a \\u000a \\u000a \\u000a Results  Mutator strains increased in frequency at the

Yevgeniy Raynes; Matthew R Gazzara; Paul D Sniegowski

2011-01-01

60

Prediction of dynamic phenomena in massed explosions  

Microsoft Academic Search

bumps. Based on the nature of shock bumps and the nature of their occurrence, the method devised for predicting dynamic phenomena includes the following: an analysis of the geological, mine-engineering, and geomechanical situation at the deposit; the identification of dynamically active geological structures; determination of the volume of the excavated space and goal; evaluation of the seismic energy of the

M. V. Kurlenya; A. Ao Eremenko; S. P. Usol'tsev; N. I. Sklyar; V. A. Eremenko

1996-01-01

61

Dynamic performance prediction of polyphase hysteresis motors  

Microsoft Academic Search

The dynamic performance characteristics of polyphase hysteresis motors are presented. A mathematical model to predict the starting and synchronization process of such motors under various operating conditions is given. The model offers a tool for studying the dynamic stability of the hysteresis motor for small-scale disturbances such as changes in load torque, supply voltage, and frequency. A parametric variation is

M. A. Rahman; ALI M. OSHEIBA

1990-01-01

62

The analysis of crow population dynamics as a surveillance tool.  

PubMed

West Nile virus (WNV) infection, a zoonotic disease for which birds act as a reservoir, first appeared in North America in August 1999. It was first reported in Quebec in 2002. The Quebec surveillance system for WNV has several components, including the surveillance of mortality in corvid populations, which includes the American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The main objectives of this study are to better understand the population dynamics of this species in Quebec and to evaluate the impact of WNV on these dynamics. We obtained observation data for living crows in this province for the period of 1990-2005 and then conducted a spectral analysis of these data. To study changes in crow population dynamics, the analysis was carried out before and after the appearance of WNV and space was divided in two different areas (urban and non-urban). Our results show the importance of cycles with periods of less than 1 year in non-urban areas and cycles with periods of greater than 1 year in urban areas in the normal population dynamics of the species. We obtained expected fluctuations in bird densities using an algorithm derived from spectral decomposition. When we compared these predictions with data observed after 2002, we found marked perturbations in population dynamics beginning in 2003 and lasting up to 2005. In the discussion, we present various hypotheses based on the behaviour of the American crow to explain the normal population dynamics observed in this species and the effect of type of area (urban versus non-urban). We also discuss how the predictive algorithm could be used as a disease surveillance tool and as a measure of the impact of a disease on wild fauna. PMID:19811623

Ludwig, A; Bigras-Poulin, M; Michel, P

2009-12-01

63

Population dynamics with nonlinear delayed carrying capacity  

E-print Network

We consider a class of evolution equations describing population dynamics in the presence of a carrying capacity depending on the population with delay. In an earlier work, we presented an exhaustive classification of the logistic equation where the carrying capacity is linearly dependent on the population with a time delay, which we refer to as the "linear delayed carrying capacity" model. Here, we generalize it to the case of a nonlinear delayed carrying capacity. The nonlinear functional form of the carrying capacity characterizes the delayed feedback of the evolving population on the capacity of their surrounding by either creating additional means for survival or destroying the available resources. The previously studied linear approximation for the capacity assumed weak feedback, while the nonlinear form is applicable to arbitrarily strong feedback. The nonlinearity essentially changes the behavior of solutions to the evolution equation, as compared to the linear case. All admissible dynamical regimes a...

Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

2014-01-01

64

Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.  

PubMed

Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool. PMID:15813796

Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

2005-04-01

65

Population dynamics of Arashiyama west Japanese macaques  

Microsoft Academic Search

Demographic data have been collected on the Arashiyama Japanese macaque population from 1954 until the present, through the\\u000a fissioning of the original group into two parts in 1966, and through the translocation of one of the two groups to Texas in\\u000a 1972. Population dynamics are reported for the Arashiyama West group in Texas during 1972 to 1979 and then compared

Linda Marie Fedigan; Harold Gouzoules; Sarah Gouzoules

1983-01-01

66

Cyclic dynamics in simulated plant populations.  

PubMed Central

Despite the general interest in nonlinear dynamics in animal populations, plant populations are supposed to show a stable equilibrium that is attributed to fundamental differences compared with animals. Some studies find more complex dynamics, but empirical studies usually are too short and most modelling studies ignore important spatial aspects of local competition and establishment. Therefore, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model of a hypothetical, non-clonal perennial to explore which mechanisms might generate complex dynamics, i.e. cycles. The model is based on the field-of-neighbourhood approach that describes local competition and establishment in a phenomenological manner. We found cyclic population dynamics for a wide spectrum of model variants, provided that mortality is determined by local competition and recruitment is virtually completely suppressed within the zone of influence of established plants. This destabilizing effect of local processes within plant populations might have wide-ranging implications for the understanding of plant community dynamics and coexistence. PMID:12495487

Bauer, Silke; Berger, Uta; Hildenbrandt, Hanno; Grimm, Volker

2002-01-01

67

Predation, individual variability and vertebrate population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Both predation and individual variation in life history traits influence population dynamics. Recent results from laboratory\\u000a predator–prey systems suggest that differences between individuals can also influence predator–prey dynamics when different\\u000a genotypes experience different predation-associated mortalities. Despite the growing number of studies in this field, there\\u000a is no synthesis identifying the overall importance of the interactions between predation and individual heterogeneity

Nathalie Pettorelli; Tim Coulson; Sarah M. Durant; Jean-Michel Gaillard

68

Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.  

PubMed

Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations. PMID:17913126

White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

2007-09-01

69

Demography and management of the invasive plant species Hypericum perforatum. II. Construction and use of an individual-based model to predict population dynamics and the effects of management strategies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary 1. Hypericum perforatum , St John's wort, is an invasive weed of natural and agro- ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. In previous work we used a long-term data set to determine which plant traits and environmental factors influence population growth and persistence in this species. These results were then used to parameterize an individual- based model of the population dynamics

Yvonne M. Buckley; David T. Briese; Mark Rees

2003-01-01

70

Testing a Theoretical Model that Predicts Thresholds in Populations Forced by Imposing Random, Episodic Disturbances  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We do not fully understand reasons behind extinction of populations and species. Consequently, our ability to anticipate extinction (which can be considered a permanent type of an ecological threshold) has remained elusive. In particular, it is not clear how the attributes of episodic disturbance regimes can elicit extinction. Here, I test a stochastic model that predicts population extinction based on attributes of the disturbance regime and population growth rates using phytoplankton in a test tube. I examined the response of phytoplankton (Thalassiosira weissflogii) to stochastic disturbances implemented by having MATLAB control a hydraulic pump that episodically removed portions of the population through time in between episodes of population recovery. My experiment demonstrated evidence that a theoretical or mathematical threshold predicted to exist in theory may actually apply to a diatom population dynamics in a test tube; however, my results also open new questions about how the statistical attributes of the disturbance regimes under study may alter the predicted time to population extinction.

Olsen, C.; Lintz, H. E.; Peckham, S. D.

2013-12-01

71

Chiral Dynamics Predictions for $?'\\to???$  

E-print Network

We study the decay $\\eta'\\to\\eta\\pi\\pi$ in two different chiral invariant approaches: Large-$N_c$ Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) and Large-$N_c$ Resonance Chiral Theory (RChT). We analyze the Dalitz plot and the invariant mass spectra. We also compare the relevance of the isoscalar and isovector channels in these approaches. While the predictions of Large-$N_c$ ChPT at next-to-leading order slightly disagree with the measured decay width (showing the need for final state interactions and higher order local contributions), a reasonable agreement is obtained for the case of RChT. Forthcoming experimental analyses at Bonn, Frascati, J\\"ulich and Mainz will decide among the different frameworks.

Pere Masjuan

2009-10-01

72

Dynamics of a disabled population in Morocco  

PubMed Central

Background The disabled population constitutes a class of people needing special care and necessitating important economic and social effort. Methods In this paper, using specific parameter settings, partial differential equations are used to model the temporal change of the proportion of the disabled population in Morocco. Results Combining different forms and values of the parameters, a numerical method is proposed and three scenarios are considered. These forms and values are determined by data fitting and simulation. Conclusions The experiments show clearly the dynamical evolution of the disabled population with time and age according to each scenario. PMID:12625838

Boutayeb, Abdesslam; Chetouani, Abdelaziz

2003-01-01

73

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System.  

PubMed

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm(3) of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm(3) of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Crow, W T; Weingartner, D P; McSorley, R; Dickson, D W

2000-06-01

74

(Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates

Bryan Grenfell; John Harwood

1997-01-01

75

Dynamic performance prediction of hysteresis motors  

Microsoft Academic Search

The dynamic performance characteristics of polyphase hysteresis motors are presented. A mathematical model, based on the d-q-axis theory, for predicting the starting and synchronization processes of such motors under various operating conditions is presented. The model offers a tool for studying the dynamic stability of the hysteresis motor for small-scale disturbances such as load torque, supply voltage, and frequency. Moreover,

M. A. Rahman; A. M. Osheiba

1989-01-01

76

Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (? = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in ?). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (? = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

77

Predictive dynamic thermal management for multimedia applications  

Microsoft Academic Search

Dynamic Thermal Management (DTM) techniques have been proposed to save on thermal packaging and cooling costs for general-purpose processors. However, when invoked, these techniques result in a significant performance degradation. This paper concerns performance-effective DTM for multimedia applications. We make two contributions: (1) Current DTM algorithms are reactive in nature. We propose a predictive DTM algorithm targeted at multimedia applications,

Jayanth Srinivasan; Sarita V. Adve

2003-01-01

78

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

79

API Requirements for Dynamic Graph Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Given a large-scale time-evolving multi-modal and multi-relational complex network (a.k.a., a large-scale dynamic semantic graph), we want to implement algorithms that discover patterns of activities on the graph and learn predictive models of those discovered patterns. This document outlines the application programming interface (API) requirements for fast prototyping of feature extraction, learning, and prediction algorithms on large dynamic semantic graphs. Since our algorithms must operate on large-scale dynamic semantic graphs, we have chosen to use the graph API developed in the CASC Complex Networks Project. This API is supported on the back end by a semantic graph database (developed by Scott Kohn and his team). The advantages of using this API are (i) we have full-control of its development and (ii) the current API meets almost all of the requirements outlined in this document.

Gallagher, B; Eliassi-Rad, T

2006-10-13

80

Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.  

PubMed

A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

2014-09-01

81

Hepatitis C Virus Population Dynamics During Infection  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) behaves as an evolving viral quasispecies in its continuously changing environment. The study of HCV\\u000a quasispecies population dynamics in experimental models and infected patients can provide useful information on factors involved\\u000a in the HCV life cycle and pathogenicity. HCV quasispecies variability also has therapeutic implications, as the continuous\\u000a generation and selection of fitter or truly resistant

J.-M. Pawlotsky

82

Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1981-01-01

83

Plant pathogen population dynamics in potato fields.  

PubMed

Modern technologies incorporating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS), remote sensing, and geostatistics provide unique opportunities to advance ecological understanding of pests across a landscape. Increased knowledge of the population dynamics of plant pathogens will promote management strategies, such as site-specific management, and cultural practices minimizing the introduction and impact of plant pathogens. The population dynamics of Alternaria solani, Verticillium dahliae, and Pratylenchus penetrans were investigated in commercial potato fields. A 0.5-ha diamond grid-sampling scheme was georeferenced, and all disease ratings and nematode samples were taken at these grid points. Percent disease severity was rated weekly, and P. penetrans densities were quantified 4 weeks after potato emergence. Spatial statistics and interpolation methods were used to identify the spatial distribution and population dynamics of each pathogen. Interpolated maps and aerial imagery identified A. solani intra-season progression across the fields as the potato crop matured. Late-season nitrogen application reduced A. solani severity. The spatial distributions of V. dahliae and P. penetrans were spatially correlated. PMID:19265932

Morgan, G D; Stevenson, W R; Macguidwin, A E; Kelling, K A; Binning, L K; Zhu, J

2002-09-01

84

Population dynamics in Er3+-doped fluoride glasses  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A detailed study of the energy-transfer processes in Er3+: flouride glasses with doping concentrations of 0.2-18 mol % is presented. Fluorescence wave forms for 11 erbium transitions were measured under 802-nm, 1.5-?m, 975-nm, 520-nm, and 403-nm excitation from a high-energy short-pulse source. The analysis of these data provided a physical understanding of the processes responsible for the temporal behavior of the populations of a large number of energy levels. A comprehensive nine-level rate-equation model of the Er3+ population dynamics in these fluoride glasses is developed. The model performs well in predicting the observed fluorescence behavior of the main fluorescing lines under all pumping conditions. The modeling process allowed 14 ion-ion energy-transfer processes that are important for the population dynamics in these fluoride glasses to be identified and their rate constants obtained. Noticeably, the inclusion of seven three-ion processes was found necessary in order to obtain good fits to the experimental fluorescence wave forms. It was also found that some three-ion processes have a significant effect on the population dynamics of the levels even in lower doping concentrations.

Bogdanov, V. K.; Booth, D. J.; Gibbs, W. E.; Javorniczky, J. S.; Newman, P. J.; Macfarlane, D. R.

2001-05-01

85

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations  

E-print Network

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At ...

Sanchez, Alvaro

86

Beyond Bt resistance of pests in the context of population dynamical complexity  

Microsoft Academic Search

Complexity in ecological systems often prevents long-term predictions about changes in population size and properties of the population dynamics. Mathematical modeling of such complex system behaviors can provide a rough idea of scenarios of the population dynamics. We use the reaction–diffusion model [Medvinsky, A.B., Morozov, A.Y., Velkov, V.V., Li, B.-L., Sokolov, M.S., Malchow, H., 2004. Modeling the invasion of recessive

Alexander B. Medvinsky; Maria M. Gonik; Bai-Lian Li; Horst Malchow

2007-01-01

87

Improvement of dynamic response prediction of helicopters  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on mathematical model development issues, necessary for a better prediction of dynamic responses of articulated rotor helicopters. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The methodology is laid out based on model development for an articulated main rotor, using the theories of aeroelastisity, finite element and state-space represented indicial-based unsteady aerodynamics. The model is represented by a set

Farid Shahmiri; Fariborz Saghafi

2007-01-01

88

Population dynamics a source of diversity Zdenek Pospisil  

E-print Network

with discrete time Models with continuous time Population dynamics ­ 4 / 18 Charles S. Elton: Animal ecologyPopulation dynamics ­ a source of diversity Zdenek Posp´isil Masaryk University, Faculty of science;Introduction General theory of population dynamics Models with discrete time Models with continuous time

Pospí�il, Zdenek

89

Hidden hysteresis - population dynamics can obscure gene network dynamics  

PubMed Central

Background Positive feedback is a common motif in gene regulatory networks. It can be used in synthetic networks as an amplifier to increase the level of gene expression, as well as a nonlinear module to create bistable gene networks that display hysteresis in response to a given stimulus. Using a synthetic positive feedback-based tetracycline sensor in E. coli, we show that the population dynamics of a cell culture has a profound effect on the observed hysteretic response of a population of cells with this synthetic gene circuit. Results The amount of observable hysteresis in a cell culture harboring the gene circuit depended on the initial concentration of cells within the culture. The magnitude of the hysteresis observed was inversely related to the dilution procedure used to inoculate the subcultures; the higher the dilution of the cell culture, lower was the observed hysteresis of that culture at steady state. Although the behavior of the gene circuit in individual cells did not change significantly in the different subcultures, the proportion of cells exhibiting high levels of steady-state gene expression did change. Although the interrelated kinetics of gene expression and cell growth are unpredictable at first sight, we were able to resolve the surprising dilution-dependent hysteresis as a result of two interrelated phenomena - the stochastic switching between the ON and OFF phenotypes that led to the cumulative failure of the gene circuit over time, and the nonlinear, logistic growth of the cell in the batch culture. Conclusions These findings reinforce the fact that population dynamics cannot be ignored in analyzing the dynamics of gene networks. Indeed population dynamics may play a significant role in the manifestation of bistability and hysteresis, and is an important consideration when designing synthetic gene circuits intended for long-term application. PMID:23800122

2013-01-01

90

Prediction and Control in a Dynamic Environment  

PubMed Central

The present study compared the accuracy of cue-outcome knowledge gained during prediction-based and control-based learning in stable and unstable dynamic environments. Participants either learnt to make cue-interventions in order to control an outcome, or learnt to predict the outcome from observing changes to the cue values. Study 1 (N?=?60) revealed that in tests of control, after a short period of familiarization, performance of Predictors was equivalent to Controllers. Study 2 (N?=?28) showed that Controllers showed equivalent task knowledge when to compared to Predictors. Though both Controllers and Predictors showed good performance at test, overall Controllers showed an advantage. The cue-outcome knowledge acquired during learning was sufficiently flexible to enable successful transfer to tests of control and prediction. PMID:22419913

Osman, Magda; Speekenbrink, Maarten

2011-01-01

91

Predicting the dynamics of protein abundance.  

PubMed

Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA-protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation efficiency. The software and data used in this research are available at http://bioinf.scmb.uq.edu.au/proteinabundance/. PMID:24532840

Mehdi, Ahmed M; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L; Bodén, Mikael

2014-05-01

92

Assessing the dynamics of wild populations  

SciTech Connect

Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

Eberhardt, L.L.

1985-01-01

93

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change  

SciTech Connect

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be applied with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.

Ives, A.R. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

1995-04-01

94

Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

2012-07-01

95

Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics.  

PubMed

Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008-2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

Beasley, James C; Olson, Zachary H; Beatty, William S; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E

2013-01-01

96

Toward a predictive theory of wetting dynamics.  

PubMed

The molecular kinetic theory (MKT) of dynamic wetting, first proposed nearly 50 years ago, has since been refined to account explicitly for the effects of viscosity and solid-liquid interactions. The MKT asserts that the systematic deviation of the dynamic contact angle from its equilibrium value quantitatively reflects local energy dissipation (friction) at the moving contact line as it traverses sites of solid-liquid interaction. Specifically, it predicts that the coefficient of contact-line friction ? will be proportional to the viscosity of the liquid ?L and exponentially dependent upon the strength of solid-liquid interactions as measured by the equilibrium work of adhesion Wa(0). Here, we analyze a very large set of dynamic wetting data drawn from more than 20 publications and representative of a very wide range of systems, from molecular-dynamics-simulated Lenard-Jones liquids and substrates, through conventional liquids and solids, to molten glasses and liquid metals on refractory solids. The combined set spans 9 decades of viscosity and 11 decades of contact-line friction. Our analysis confirms the predicted dependence of ? upon ?L and Wa(0), although the data are scattered. In particular, a plot of ln(?/?L) versus Wa(0)/n (i.e., the work of adhesion per solid-liquid interaction site) is broadly linear, with 85% of the data falling within a triangular envelope defined by Wa(0) and 0.25Wa(0). Various reasons for this divergence are explored, and a semi-empirical approach is proposed to predict ?. We suggest that the broad agreement between the MKT and such a wide range of data is strong evidence that the local microscopic contact angle is directly dependent upon the velocity of the contact line. PMID:23844877

Duvivier, Damien; Blake, Terence D; De Coninck, Joël

2013-08-13

97

[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].  

PubMed

The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of emigration from the Caribbean and the impact of emigration on population composition, with attention to intraregional and return migration. PMID:12320811

Boland, B

1995-12-01

98

Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird.  

PubMed

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size. PMID:10657299

Saether, B; Tufto, J; Engen, S; Jerstad, K; Rostad, O W; Skâtan, J E

2000-02-01

99

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.  

PubMed

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means. PMID:17168036

Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

2006-11-01

100

Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments  

PubMed Central

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Alienor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2012-01-01

101

Analysis of urban - rural population dynamics for China  

Microsoft Academic Search

The multiregional demography approach is used in an analysis of the urban - rural population dynamics of China. Multiregional population-accounts and methods of estimation of demographic rates are developed on the basis of the multiregional population-accounts concept. An accounts-based urban - rural population projection model is established and used to project the population of China from 1988 to 2087.

J Shen

1991-01-01

102

Population Based Reweighting of Scaled Molecular Dynamics  

PubMed Central

Molecular dynamics simulation using enhanced sampling methods is one of the powerful computational tools used to explore protein conformations and free energy landscapes. Enhanced sampling methods often employ either an increase in temperature or a flattening of the potential energy surface to rapidly sample phase space, and a corresponding reweighting algorithm is used to recover the Boltzmann statistics. However, potential energies of complex biomolecules usually involve large fluctuations on a magnitude of hundreds of kcal/mol despite minimal structural changes during simulation. This leads to noisy reweighting statistics and complicates the obtainment of accurate final results. To overcome this common issue in enhanced conformational sampling, we propose a scaled molecular dynamics method, which modifies the biomolecular potential energy surface and employs a reweighting scheme based on configurational populations. Statistical mechanical theory is applied to derive the reweighting formula, and the canonical ensemble of simulated structures is recovered accordingly. Test simulations on alanine dipeptide and the fast folding polypeptide Chignolin exhibit sufficiently enhanced conformational sampling and accurate recovery of free energy surfaces and thermodynamic properties. The results are comparable to long conventional molecular dynamics simulations and exhibit better recovery of canonical statistics over methods which employ a potential energy term in reweighting. PMID:23721224

2013-01-01

103

Predicting Protein Interactions by Brownian Dynamics Simulations  

PubMed Central

We present a newly adapted Brownian-Dynamics (BD)-based protein docking method for predicting native protein complexes. The approach includes global BD conformational sampling, compact complex selection, and local energy minimization. In order to reduce the computational costs for energy evaluations, a shell-based grid force field was developed to represent the receptor protein and solvation effects. The performance of this BD protein docking approach has been evaluated on a test set of 24 crystal protein complexes. Reproduction of experimental structures in the test set indicates the adequate conformational sampling and accurate scoring of this BD protein docking approach. Furthermore, we have developed an approach to account for the flexibility of proteins, which has been successfully applied to reproduce the experimental complex structure from the structure of two unbounded proteins. These results indicate that this adapted BD protein docking approach can be useful for the prediction of protein-protein interactions. PMID:22500075

Meng, Xuan-Yu; Xu, Yu; Zhang, Hong-Xing; Mezei, Mihaly; Cui, Meng

2012-01-01

104

Predicting protein interactions by Brownian dynamics simulations.  

PubMed

We present a newly adapted Brownian-Dynamics (BD)-based protein docking method for predicting native protein complexes. The approach includes global BD conformational sampling, compact complex selection, and local energy minimization. In order to reduce the computational costs for energy evaluations, a shell-based grid force field was developed to represent the receptor protein and solvation effects. The performance of this BD protein docking approach has been evaluated on a test set of 24 crystal protein complexes. Reproduction of experimental structures in the test set indicates the adequate conformational sampling and accurate scoring of this BD protein docking approach. Furthermore, we have developed an approach to account for the flexibility of proteins, which has been successfully applied to reproduce the experimental complex structure from the structure of two unbounded proteins. These results indicate that this adapted BD protein docking approach can be useful for the prediction of protein-protein interactions. PMID:22500075

Meng, Xuan-Yu; Xu, Yu; Zhang, Hong-Xing; Mezei, Mihaly; Cui, Meng

2012-01-01

105

Predictive Coding of Dynamical Variables in Balanced Spiking Networks  

PubMed Central

Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated. PMID:24244113

Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K.; Deneve, Sophie

2013-01-01

106

Predicting population-level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals.  

PubMed

Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning that there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose that population predator risk effects can be predicted through an extension of individual risk trade-off theory and show for the first time that this is the case in a wild vertebrate system. Specifically, we demonstrate that the timing (in specific months of the year), occurrence (at low food availability), cause (reduction in individual energy reserves), and type (starvation mortality) of a population-level predator risk effect can be successfully predicted from individual responses using a widely applicable theoretical framework (individual-based risk trade-off theory). Our results suggest that individual-based risk trade-off frameworks could allow a wide range of population-level predator risk effects to be predicted from existing ecological theory, which would enable risk effects to be more routinely integrated into consideration of population processes and in applied situations such as conservation. PMID:25163131

MacLeod, Colin D; MacLeod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, Graham J

2014-07-01

107

Population Dynamics and Potential for Biological Control of an Exotic Invasive Shrub in Hawaiian Rainforests  

Microsoft Academic Search

Introduction of biological control agents to reduce the abundance of exotic invasive plant species is often considered necessary but risky. I used matrix projection models to investigate the current population dynamics of Clidemia  hirta (Melastomataceae), an invasive shrub, in two rainforest stands on the island of Hawaii and to predict the efficacy of hypothetical biological control agents in reducing population

Saara J. DeWalt

2006-01-01

108

A PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN IMPINGEMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS  

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives results of a study to: (1) develop a mathematical model describing fish populations as a function of life process dynamics and facilities that impose additional mortality on fish populations; and (2) improve objective impingement impact prediction. The model acco...

109

Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations  

PubMed Central

Background Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization. Methodology/Principal Findings Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons. Conclusions This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation. PMID:21799936

Legros, Mathieu; Magori, Krisztian; Morrison, Amy C.; Xu, Chonggang; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2011-01-01

110

Modeling Daphnia population dynamics and demography under natural conditions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Various approaches to modeling the population dynamics and demography of Daphnia have been published. These methods range from the simple egg-ratio method, to mathematically complex models based on partial differential equations and numerically complex individual-based Daphnia population models. The usefulness of these models in unraveling the population dynamics and demography of Daphnia under natural conditions is discussed. Next to this,

W. M. Mooij; S. Hülsmann; J. Vijverberg; A. Veen; E. H. R. R. Lammens

2003-01-01

111

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate  

Microsoft Academic Search

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic

Eric Post; Mads C. Forchhammer

2002-01-01

112

Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

113

Predicting effects of dredging on a crab population  

E-print Network

Predicting effects of dredging on a crab population: An equivalent adult loss approach Thomas C! a University of Washington. seattle. Washington 98 J95 Abstract.-The effect of benthic dredging on coastal entrainment on fishery stocks. Several important dif· ferences between power plant and dredge operations

114

Population of dynamically formed triples in dense stellar systems  

E-print Network

In dense stellar systems, frequent dynamical interactions between binaries lead to the formation of multiple systems. In this contribution we discuss the dynamical formation of hierarchically stable triples: the formation rate, main characteristics of dynamically formed population of triples and the impact of the triples formation on the population of close binaries. In particular, we estimate how much the population of blue stragglers and compact binaries could be affected.

Natalia Ivanova

2005-09-18

115

POPULATION ECOLOGY -ORIGINAL PAPER The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare  

E-print Network

POPULATION ECOLOGY - ORIGINAL PAPER The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two on the dynamics and persis- tence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects

Richner, Heinz

116

Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

To understand why population growth rate is sometimes positive and sometimes negative, ecologists have adopted two main approaches. The most common approach is through the density paradigm by plotting population growth rate against population density. The second approach is through the mechanistic para- digm by plotting population growth rate against the relevant ecological processes affecting the population. The density paradigm

Charles J. Krebs

2002-01-01

117

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians  

Microsoft Academic Search

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations,

John M. Tirpak; William M. Giuliano; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

118

Demographic Characteristics and Population Dynamical Patterns of Solitary Birds  

Microsoft Academic Search

In birds and many other animals, there are large interspecific differences in the magnitude of annual variation in population size. Using time-series data on populations of solitary bird species, we found that fluctuations in population size of solitary birds were affected by the deterministic characteristics of the population dynamics as well as the stochastic factors. In species with highly variable

Bernt-Erik Sæther; Steinar Engen; Erik Matthysen

2002-01-01

119

Population dynamics based on birth intervals and parity progression  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Chinese population policy of ‘later-longer-fewer’ suggests a formulation of population dynamics in terms of birth intervals and parity progression. This leads to population projections based on birth interval distributions and parity progression ratios and to an alternative to Lotka's stable population theory in which age is replaced by parity and interval since last birth. A numerical comparison with Lotka's

G. Feeney

1983-01-01

120

Evolutionary and population dynamics of host–parasitoid interactions  

Microsoft Academic Search

The role of evolutionary dynamics in understanding host–parasitoid interactions is interlinked with the population dynamics\\u000a of these interactions. Here, we address the problems in coupling evolutionary and population dynamics of host–parasitoid interactions.\\u000a We review previous theoretical and empirical studies and show that evolution can alter the ecological dynamics of a host–parasitoid\\u000a interaction. Whether evolution stabilizes or destabilizes the interaction depends

Midori Tuda; Michael B. Bonsall

1999-01-01

121

Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends  

PubMed Central

Objective Obesity prevalence in the United States (US) appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. Design and Methods A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Results The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. PMID:23804487

Thomas, Diana M.; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F.; Martin, Corby K.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2013-01-01

122

The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly  

Microsoft Academic Search

We compare results of field study and model analysis of two butterfly populations to evaluate the importance of alternative mechanisms causing changes in abundance. Although understanding and predicting population fluctuations is a central goal of population ecology, it is not often achieved because long-term abundance data are available for few populations in which mechanisms causing fluctuations also are known. Both

John F. McLaughlin; Jessica J. Hellmann; Carol L. Boggs; Paul R. Ehrlich

2002-01-01

123

Dynamic situation assessment and prediction (DSAP)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The face of war has changed. We no longer have the luxury of planning campaigns against a known enemy operating under a well-understood doctrine, using conventional weapons and rules of engagement; all in a well-charted region. Instead, today's Air Force faces new, unforeseen enemies, asymmetric combat situations and unconventional warfare (Chem/Bio, co-location of military assets near civilian facilities, etc.). At the same time, the emergence of new Air Force doctrinal notions (e.g., Global Strike Task Force, Effects-Based Operations, the desire to minimize or eliminate any collateral damage, etc.)- while propounding the benefits that can be expected with the adoption of such concepts - also impose many new technical and operational challenges. Furthermore, future mission/battle commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous glut of available information, and still be expected to make quick-response decisions - and to quantify the effects of those decisions - all in the face of uncertainty. All these factors translate to the need for dramatic improvements in the way we plan, rehearse, execute and dynamically assess the status of military campaigns. This paper addresses these crucial and revolutionary requirements through the pursuit of a new simulation paradigm that allows a user to perform real-time dynamic situation assessment and prediction.

Sisti, Alex F.

2003-09-01

124

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.  

PubMed

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. PMID:23692126

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

125

Code Placement for Improving Dynamic Branch Prediction Daniel A. Jimenez  

E-print Network

, Optimization General Terms Performance, Experimentation Keywords Compilers, Branch prediction 1. IntroductionCode Placement for Improving Dynamic Branch Prediction Accuracy Daniel A. Jimâ??enez Deptartment instruction locality and decreasing the number of taken branches. However, traditional code placement

Jiménez, Daniel A.

126

Code Placement for Improving Dynamic Branch Prediction Daniel A. Jimenez  

E-print Network

, Optimization General Terms Performance, Experimentation Keywords Compilers, Branch prediction 1. IntroductionCode Placement for Improving Dynamic Branch Prediction Accuracy Daniel A. Jim´enez Deptartment instruction locality and decreasing the number of taken branches. However, traditional code placement

Jiménez, Daniel A.

127

Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review and further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population.

Knight, Richard R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

1985-01-01

128

THE POPULATION OF HELIUM-MERGER PROGENITORS: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS  

SciTech Connect

The helium-merger gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitor is produced by the rapid accretion onto a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole) when it undergoes a common envelope inspiral with its companion's helium core. This merger phase produces a very distinct environment around these outbursts and recent observations suggest that, in some cases, we are detecting the signatures of the past merger in the GRB afterglow. These observations allow us, for the first time, to study the specific features of the helium-merger progenitor. In this paper, we couple population synthesis calculations to our current understanding of GRB engines and common envelope evolution to make observational predictions for the helium-merger GRB population. Many mergers do not produce GRB outbursts and we discuss the implications of these mergers with the broader population of astrophysical transients.

Fryer, Chris L. [CCS Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)] [CCS Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Belczynski, Krzysztof; Bulik, Tomasz [Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw (Poland)] [Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw (Poland); Berger, Edo [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)] [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Thoene, Christina [IAA-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomia s/n, E-18008 Granada (Spain)] [IAA-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomia s/n, E-18008 Granada (Spain); Ellinger, Carola [Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, 502 Yates Street, Box 19059, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)] [Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, 502 Yates Street, Box 19059, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)

2013-02-20

129

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES  

EPA Science Inventory

Few topics have attracted the attention of ecologists more than fluctuations in the numbers of plants and animals through time and their variation in abundance through space. nderstanding population fluctuations, and thus population conservation, requires understanding the links ...

130

Arthropod population and community dynamics in turfgrass  

E-print Network

Non-target arthropod and nematode populations in ographics. fungal and nematode treated bermudagrass were contrasted with populations in a chlorpyrifos and an untreated control treatment. Fifty-five arthropod families or suborder, herein referred...

Wang, Yong

2012-06-07

131

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii  

Microsoft Academic Search

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has\\u000a been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous\\u000a (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the

Sebastiano Salvidio

2007-01-01

132

Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulators of population sizes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Five SIRS epidemiological models for populations of varying size are considered. The incidences of infection are given by mass action terms involving the number of infectives and either the number of susceptibles or the fraction of the population which is susceptible. When the population dynamics are immigration and deaths, thresholds are found which determine whether the disease dies out or

Jaime Mena-Lorcat; Herbert W. Hethcote

1992-01-01

133

Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.  

PubMed Central

Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise. PMID:11052535

Ranta, E; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Laakso, J

2000-01-01

134

From Neural Responses to Population Behavior: Neural Focus Group Predicts Population-Level Media Effects  

PubMed Central

Can neural responses of a small group of individuals predict the behavior of large-scale populations? In this investigation, brain activations were recorded while smokers viewed three different television campaigns promoting the National Cancer Institute’s telephone hotline to help smokers quit (1-800-QUIT-NOW). The smokers also provided self-report predictions of the campaigns’ relative effectiveness. Population measures of the success of each campaign were computed by comparing call volume to 1-800-QUIT-NOW in the month before and the month after the launch of each campaign. This approach allowed us to directly compare the predictive value of self-reports with neural predictors of message effectiveness. Neural activity in a medial prefrontal region of interest, previously associated with individual behavior change, predicted the population response, whereas self-report judgments did not. This finding suggests a novel way of connecting neural signals to population responses that has not been previously demonstrated and provides information that may be difficult to obtain otherwise. PMID:22510393

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2013-01-01

135

From neural responses to population behavior: neural focus group predicts population-level media effects.  

PubMed

Can neural responses of a small group of individuals predict the behavior of large-scale populations? In this investigation, brain activations were recorded while smokers viewed three different television campaigns promoting the National Cancer Institute's telephone hotline to help smokers quit (1-800-QUIT-NOW). The smokers also provided self-report predictions of the campaigns' relative effectiveness. Population measures of the success of each campaign were computed by comparing call volume to 1-800-QUIT-NOW in the month before and the month after the launch of each campaign. This approach allowed us to directly compare the predictive value of self-reports with neural predictors of message effectiveness. Neural activity in a medial prefrontal region of interest, previously associated with individual behavior change, predicted the population response, whereas self-report judgments did not. This finding suggests a novel way of connecting neural signals to population responses that has not been previously demonstrated and provides information that may be difficult to obtain otherwise. PMID:22510393

Falk, Emily B; Berkman, Elliot T; Lieberman, Matthew D

2012-05-01

136

Within and between population variation in plant traits predicts ecosystem functions associated with a dominant plant species.  

PubMed

Linking intraspecific variation in plant traits to ecosystem carbon uptake may allow us to better predict how shift in populations shape ecosystem function. We investigated whether plant populations of a dominant old-field plant species (Solidago altissima) differed in carbon dynamics and if variation in plant traits among genotypes and between populations predicted carbon dynamics. We established a common garden experiment with 35 genotypes from three populations of S. altissima from either Tennessee (southern populations) or Connecticut (northern populations) to ask whether: (1) southern and northern Solidago populations will differ in aboveground productivity, leaf area, flowering time and duration, and whole ecosystem carbon uptake, (2) intraspecific trait variation (growth and reproduction) will be related to intraspecific variation in gross ecosystem CO(2) exchange (GEE) and net ecosystem CO(2) exchange (NEE) within and between northern and southern populations. GEE and NEE were 4.8× and 2× greater in southern relative to northern populations. Moreover, southern populations produced 13× more aboveground biomass and 1.4× more inflorescence mass than did northern populations. Flowering dynamics (first- and last-day flowering and flowering duration) varied significantly among genotypes in both the southern and northern populations, but plant performance and ecosystem function did not. Both productivity and inflorescence mass predicted NEE and GEE between S. altissima southern and northern populations. Taken together, our data demonstrate that variation between S. altissima populations in performance and flowering traits are strong predictors of ecosystem function in a dominant old-field species and suggest that populations of the same species might differ substantially in their response to environmental perturbations. PMID:22833791

Breza, Lauren C; Souza, Lara; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T

2012-06-01

137

Population Ecology Wolf Population Dynamics in the U.S.  

E-print Network

by Recruitment and Human-Caused Mortality JUSTIN A. GUDE,1 Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, 1420 East 6th Avenue recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human for monitoring. Ã? 2011 The Wildlife Society. KEY WORDS Canis lupus, harvest, human-caused mortality, Montana

Mitchell, Mike

138

Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects  

PubMed Central

Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species. PMID:25360620

Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

2014-01-01

139

Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.  

PubMed

Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects. PMID:20880886

Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry

2011-04-01

140

Dynamic predictive coding by the retina Toshihiko Hosoya1  

E-print Network

Dynamic predictive coding by the retina Toshihiko Hosoya1 , Stephen A. Baccus1 & Markus Meister1 that when this happens, the retina adjusts its processing dynamically. The spatio-temporal receptive fields circuits in the retina predict the local intensity from values at nearby points in space and preceding

Gutkin, Boris

141

Population dynamics of patella vulgata in orkney  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A population of Patella vulgata has been studied at Dyke-end, in Orkney. The population had a polymodal distribution, within which several year-classes were identified. Spawning occured between January and April each year and the first signs of spat settlement were recorded between August and October. Growth was suppressed over the winter months and increased during the summer, although the mature proportion of the population showed a reduction in growth rate at the onset of gonad development. Annual fluctuations in population density were attributed to spat recruitment and subsequent mortality of animals of < 30 mm lenght; little mortality of lager animals occurred.

Baxter, J. M.

142

POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of Ips pini and Ips grandicollis in Red Pine  

E-print Network

POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of Ips pini and Ips grandicollis in Red Pine Plantations pini (Say) and Ips grandicollis (Eichhoff). The predominant predators obtained were Thanasimus dubius identify factors affecting population densities. The two most common bark beetle species obtained were Ips

Erbilgin, Nadir

143

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.  

PubMed

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. PMID:23306058

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

144

Dynamics of a disabled population in Morocco  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: The disabled population constitutes a class of people needing special care and necessitating important economic and social effort. METHODS: In this paper, using specific parameter settings, partial differential equations are used to model the temporal change of the proportion of the disabled population in Morocco. RESULTS: Combining different forms and values of the parameters, a numerical method is proposed

Abdesslam Boutayeb; Abdelaziz Chetouani

2003-01-01

145

A simplified model of spatiotemporal population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

The paper is a development of the Hotelling model of population growth and migration. In the original model, a logistic growth term is combined with linear diffusion. Since man produces his own means of subsistance and himself decides which standard of living per capita is desirable, the 'saturation' population cannot be regarded as a constant, and production technology and technological

T Puu

1985-01-01

146

A simplified model of spatiotemporal population dynamics.  

PubMed

This paper is an extension of the model of population growth and migration originally developed by H. Hotelling in 1921. This model consists of two ingredients, a logistic growth function and a linear spatial diffusion term. The author notes that the saturation population can be affected by the development of new technology and that improvements in transportation have increased the possibilities for migration. "Basic nonlinearities are introduced by use of a production technology with increasing-decreasing returns to scale. It is demonstrated how industrial takeoffs, population transitions, and agglomerative spatial patterns can emerge by changing the model parameters." PMID:12267309

Puu, T

1985-09-01

147

Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems  

E-print Network

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events. The likelihood of such binary events is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined system confirm a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement -- provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise -- previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes, namely, that 'exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable'; or in other words: rare extremes are more predictable than frequent typical events. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of data-driven prediction approximates the skill of model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors, and therefore stronger extremes are more predictable also in the latter situation. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based skill score when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability, it does that in a nontrivial manner.

Tamas Bodai

2014-08-05

148

Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems  

E-print Network

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events. The likelihood of such binary events is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined system confirm a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement -- provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise -- previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes, namely, that 'exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable'; or in other words: rare extremes are more predictable than frequent typical events. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of data-driven prediction approximates the skill of model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors, an...

Bodai, Tamas

2014-01-01

149

On Some Perturbation Approaches to Population Dynamics  

E-print Network

We show that the Adomian decomposition method, the time--series expansion, the homotopy--perturbation method, and the variational--iteration method completely fail to provide a reasonable description of the dynamics of the simplest prey--predator system.

Francisco M. Fernandez

2008-06-02

150

PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL  

EPA Science Inventory

PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

151

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.  

PubMed

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

2014-11-11

152

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data  

PubMed Central

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

153

The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

2014-11-01

154

Synchronization and Stability in Noisy Population Dynamics  

E-print Network

We study the stability and synchronization of predator-prey populations subjected to noise. The system is described by patches of local populations coupled by migration and predation over a neighborhood. When a single patch is considered, random perturbations tend to destabilize the populations, leading to extinction. If the number of patches is small, stabilization in the presence of noise is maintained at the expense of synchronization. As the number of patches increases, both the stability and the synchrony among patches increase. However, a residual asynchrony, large compared with the noise amplitude, seems to persist even in the limit of infinite number of patches. Therefore, the mechanism of stabilization by asynchrony recently proposed by R. Abta et. al., combining noise, diffusion and nonlinearities, seems to be more general than first proposed.

Sabrina B. L. Araujo; M. A. M. de Aguiar

2008-02-15

155

Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics  

SciTech Connect

The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

2007-03-01

156

Germination ecology and seed population dynamics of Digitalis purpurea  

Microsoft Academic Search

The germination ecology and the dynamics of the generative reproduction in populations of Digitalis purpurea L. were investigated in the field as well as in experiments. Germination of fresh seeds in the dark on moist filter paper appeared to differ between populations. These differences were eliminated when a moist natural soil functioned as germination substrate. An interaction between the spectral

J. van Baalen

1982-01-01

157

Transoceanic Migration, Spatial Dynamics, and Population Linkages of White Sharks  

Microsoft Academic Search

The large-scale spatial dynamics and population structure of marine top predators are poorly known. We present electronic tag and photographic identification data showing a complex suite of behavioral patterns in white sharks. These include coastal return migrations and the fastest known transoceanic return migration among swimming fauna, which provide direct evidence of a link between widely separated populations in South

Ramón Bonfil; Michael Meÿer; Michael C. Scholl; Ryan Johnson; Shannon O'Brien; Herman Oosthuizen; Stephan Swanson; Deon Kotze; Michael Paterson

2005-01-01

158

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS  

EPA Science Inventory

We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

159

Population dynamics of grey partridge (Perdix perdix) in northern Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

Population dynamics of grey partridge was studied from 1982 to 1986 in northern Italy in order to evaluate fluctuations in density and the relationships between population parameters and climatic factors. The general trend was a clear decrease both in spring and summer density after 1984, weighting 34.6% and 22.2% respec tively, mainly due to severe winters. The reproductive success and

Daniela Montagna; Alberto Meriggi

1991-01-01

160

A Particle Population Control Method for Dynamic Monte Carlo  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A general particle population control method has been derived from splitting and Russian Roulette for dynamic Monte Carlo particle transport. A well-known particle population control method, known as the particle population comb, has been shown to be a special case of this general method. This general method has been incorporated in Los Alamos National Laboratory's Monte Carlo Application Toolkit (MCATK) and examples of it's use are shown for both super-critical and sub-critical systems.

Sweezy, Jeremy; Nolen, Steve; Adams, Terry; Zukaitis, Anthony

2014-06-01

161

Population Dynamics of Metastable Growth-Rate Phenotypes  

PubMed Central

Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations). Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the intracellular and population processes calls for a new framework for population dynamics which is likely to be significant in a wide range of biological contexts, from evolution to cancer. PMID:24312571

Braun, Erez

2013-01-01

162

Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations). However, in both cases, a mesoscale vortex at the mid level apparently induced by the convection tends to induce a cyclonic circulation at the low level after several hours' adjustment which eventually leads to the development of the hurricane similar to that simulated in ENKF06 (and to observations). This result implies that, under favorable conditions for tropical development and rapid intensification, the exact route to tropical cyclogenesis, either top-down or bottom-up, may be of secondary importance. Nevertheless, prior to the rapid intensification, all three experiments produce abundant convection (VHTs) near the center of the TC circulation. As soon as one or a few VHTs appear right at the center of the low-level cyclonic circulation, rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone is followed. We are currently examining potential dominating factors in controlling the near- synchronous rapid development at similar location among the three simulations with significantly different initial circulations.

Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

2008-12-01

163

Resource heterogeneity and ungulate population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

It has been suggested that climatic variation has the effect on the dynamics of arid and semi-arid grazing systems of reducing animal numbers below the level at which they have much impact on vegetation or soils, and that spatial heterogeneity in resource availability serves to buffer herbivores against climatic variation. Modelling was used to test these hypotheses and to examine

A. W. Illius; T. G. O'Connor

2000-01-01

164

The Second Principle of animal population dynamics  

E-print Network

of slope > 1, diverges Example: the discrete logistic equation Stability in the one-dimensional map at these "break points" Bifurcations- where qualitative behavior shifts Bifurcation diagram for logistic eqn What to structural stability of the model Bifurcation diagrams explore consequences of parameters on dynamics #12;

Gervais, Jennifer

165

Individual-based approach to fish population dynamics: An overview  

Microsoft Academic Search

Individual-based simulation modeling tracks the attributes of individual fish through time and aggregates them to generate insights into population function. By seeking to understand how fish of differing phenotypes respond to variations in physicochemical and biological environments, analysts hope to improve predictions of population trends. A review of eight accompanying papers highlights the promise and current limitations of the individual-based

WEBSTER VAN WINKLE; KENNETH A. ROSE; R. CHRISTOPHER CHAMBERS

1993-01-01

166

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Fucoid Populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): A Comparison between Central and Range Edge Populations  

PubMed Central

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species’ distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (?s) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with ?s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to ?s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals’ life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations. PMID:24651480

Araujo, Rita M.; Serrao, Ester A.; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Aberg, Per

2014-01-01

167

Developing methods to assess and predict the population level effects of environmental contaminants.  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies--assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants--moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

Emlen, J.M.; Springman, K.R.

2007-01-01

168

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters.  

PubMed

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, ?-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-10-01

169

Population dynamics of thrips prey and their mite predators in a refuge.  

PubMed

Prey refuges are expected to affect population dynamics, but direct experimental tests of this hypothesis are scarce. Larvae of western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis use the web produced by spider mites as a refuge from predation by the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris. Thrips incur a cost of using the refuge through reduced food quality within the web due to spider mite herbivory, resulting in a reduction of thrips developmental rate. These individual costs and benefits of refuge use were incorporated in a stage-structured predator-prey model developed for this system. The model predicted higher thrips numbers in presence than in absence of the refuge during the initial phase. A greenhouse experiment was carried out to test this prediction: the dynamics of thrips and their predators was followed on plants damaged by spider mites, either with or without web. Thrips densities in presence of predators were higher on plants with web than on unwebbed plants after 3 weeks. Experimental data fitted model predictions, indicating that individual-level measurements of refuge costs and benefits can be extrapolated to the level of interacting populations. Model-derived calculations of thrips population growth rate enable the estimation of the minimum predator density at which thrips benefit from using the web as a refuge. The model also predicted a minor effect of the refuge on the prey density at equilibrium, indicating that the effect of refuges on population dynamics hinges on the temporal scale considered. PMID:16964498

Magalhães, Sara; van Rijn, Paul C J; Montserrat, Marta; Pallini, Angelo; Sabelis, Maurice W

2007-01-01

170

The DynaMine webserver: predicting protein dynamics from sequence  

PubMed Central

Protein dynamics are important for understanding protein function. Unfortunately, accurate protein dynamics information is difficult to obtain: here we present the DynaMine webserver, which provides predictions for the fast backbone movements of proteins directly from their amino-acid sequence. DynaMine rapidly produces a profile describing the statistical potential for such movements at residue-level resolution. The predicted values have meaning on an absolute scale and go beyond the traditional binary classification of residues as ordered or disordered, thus allowing for direct dynamics comparisons between protein regions. Through this webserver, we provide molecular biologists with an efficient and easy to use tool for predicting the dynamical characteristics of any protein of interest, even in the absence of experimental observations. The prediction results are visualized and can be directly downloaded. The DynaMine webserver, including instructive examples describing the meaning of the profiles, is available at http://dynamine.ibsquare.be. PMID:24728994

Cilia, Elisa; Pancsa, Rita; Tompa, Peter; Lenaerts, Tom; Vranken, Wim F.

2014-01-01

171

Population dynamics of a scrapie outbreak  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary.  ?A detailed analysis of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Cheviot sheep is described. A total of 33 cases of 1473 sheep born\\u000a to the flock were reported between 1985 and 1994. The epidemiology of scrapie can only be understood with reference to sheep\\u000a demography, the population genetics of susceptibility to scrapie, pathogenesis during a long incubation period, and

L. Matthews; P. G. Coen; J. D. Foster; N. Hunter; M. E. J. Woolhouse

2001-01-01

172

Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics  

E-print Network

Population extinction is a rare event which requires overcoming an effective barrier. We show that the extinction rate can be fragile: a small change in the system parameters leads to an exponentially strong change of the rate, with the barrier height depending on the parameters nonanalytically. General conditions of the fragility are established. The fragility is found in one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the SIS model. The analytical expressions are compared with simulations.

M. Khasin; M. I. Dykman

2009-04-10

173

Population dynamics in meerkats, Suricata suricatta  

E-print Network

impossible - for countless hours of data collection and related support. No one should ever have to smell eggs that have been forgotten for days in field bags that sit in 40°C heat. Specifically, thanks to Tom Flower, Rob Sutcliffe, Dave Bell, and Nate... Chapter One — Introduction 9 implications for vulnerable populations of cooperatively breeding species, such as in the high-profile case of African wild dogs, Lycaon pictus (Courchamp et al. 2000, Courchamp and Macdonald 2001). Although component...

Bateman, Andrew

2013-03-12

174

Hemoglobin E: Distribution and population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hemoglobin E, an anomaly of the ß-chain of human hemoglobin, is widely distributed in Southeast Asia and adjacent areas. In some populations of Southeast Asia the frequency of the gene responsible for the production of HbE reaches values near 0.3. In view of the probable disadvantage of the HbE homozygote and the certain disadvantage of the double heterozygote for the

G. Flatz; H. HU

1967-01-01

175

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

Salvidio, Sebastiano

2007-05-01

176

Predicting NCLEX-RN success in a diverse student population.  

PubMed

Many schools of nursing have implemented standardized testing using platforms such as those developed by Assessment Technologies Institute (ATI) to better prepare students for success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses® (NCLEX-RN). This study extends and replicates the research on standardized testing to predict first-time pass success in a diverse student population and across two prelicensure program types. The final sample consisted of 589 students who graduated between 2003 and 2009. Demographic data, as well as academic performance and scores on the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor, were analyzed. The findings in this study indicate that scores on the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor were positively, significantly associated with first-time pass success. Students in jeopardy of failing the NCLEX-RN on their first attempt can be identified prior to graduation and remediation efforts can be strengthened to improve their success. PMID:21366169

Alameida, Marshall D; Prive, Alice; Davis, Harvey C; Landry, Lynette; Renwanz-Boyle, Andrea; Dunham, Michelle

2011-05-01

177

A Hierarchical Approach Embedding Hydrologic and Population Modeling for a West Nile Virus Vector Prediction  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We applied a hierarchical state space model to predict the abundance of Cx.pipiens (a West Nile Virus vector) in the Po River Delta Region, Northeastern Italy. The study area has large mosquito abundance, due to a favorable environment and climate as well as dense human population. Mosquito data were collected on a weekly basis at more than 20 sites from May to September in 2010 and 2011. Cx.pipiens was the dominant species in our samples, accounting for about 90% of the more than 300,000 total captures. The hydrological component of the model accounted for evapotranspiration, infiltration and deep percolation to infer, in a 0D context, the local dynamics of soil moisture as a direct exogenous forcing of mosquito dynamics. The population model had a Gompertz structure, which included exogenous meteorological forcings and delayed internal dynamics. The models were coupled within a hierarchical statistical structure to overcome the relatively short length of the samples by exploiting the large number of concurrent observations available. The results indicated that Cx.pipiens abundance had significant density dependence at 1 week lag, which approximately matched its development time from larvae to adult. Among the exogenous controls, temperature, daylight hours, and soil moisture explained most of the dynamics. Longer daylight hours and lower soil moisture values resulted in higher abundance. The negative correlation of soil moisture and mosquito population can be explained with the abundance of water in the region (e.g. due to irrigation) and the preference for eutrophic habitats by Cx.pipien. Variations among sites were explained by land use factors as represented by distance to the nearest rice field and NDVI values: the carrying capacity decreased with increased distance to the nearest rice filed, while the maximum growth rate was positively related with NDVI. The model shows a satisfactory performance in predicting (potentially one week in advance) mosquito abundance and particularly its peak timing and magnitude.

Jian, Y.; Silvestri, S.; Marani, M.; Saltarin, A.; Chillemi, G.

2012-12-01

178

Galaxy Dynamics and the PNe Population  

E-print Network

This review attempts to place the observations of extragalactic planetary nebulae in the context of galactic dynamics. From this point of view only the radial velocities of the PNe are important. We have built a specialised instrument to detect PNe in distant galaxies and measure their radial velocities in one step. This is explained in some detail, along with classical techniques for obtaining kinematic information. The review includes a vision of possible future developments in the field.

Nigel G. Douglas

2005-08-30

179

Dynamics of similar populations Geza Meszena1  

E-print Network

is the derivative of the map f : E F if, for any curve c : R E, the derivative of f c is L c . Dynamics L : E F is the derivative of the map f : E F if, for any curve c : R E, the derivative of f c is L c . Chain rule: (G F) (x) = G (F(x)) F (x) as (G F c) (0) = G ((F c) (0)) (F c) (0) = G

Meszéna, Géza

180

Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation in public goods games  

PubMed Central

The emergence and abundance of cooperation in nature poses a tenacious and challenging puzzle to evolutionary biology. Cooperative behaviour seems to contradict Darwinian evolution because altruistic individuals increase the fitness of other members of the population at a cost to themselves. Thus, in the absence of supporting mechanisms, cooperation should decrease and vanish, as predicted by classical models for cooperation in evolutionary game theory, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma and public goods games. Traditional approaches to studying the problem of cooperation assume constant population sizes and thus neglect the ecology of the interacting individuals. Here, we incorporate ecological dynamics into evolutionary games and reveal a new mechanism for maintaining cooperation. In public goods games, cooperation can gain a foothold if the population density depends on the average population payoff. Decreasing population densities, due to defection leading to small payoffs, results in smaller interaction group sizes in which cooperation can be favoured. This feedback between ecological dynamics and game dynamics can generate stable coexistence of cooperators and defectors in public goods games. However, this mechanism fails for pairwise Prisoner's Dilemma interactions and the population is driven to extinction. Our model represents natural extension of replicator dynamics to populations of varying densities. PMID:16959650

Hauert, Christoph; Holmes, Miranda; Doebeli, Michael

2006-01-01

181

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.  

PubMed

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). PMID:24373938

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

182

Global quantitative predictions of complex laser dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

We demonstrate unprecedented agreement between a theoretical two-dimensional bifurcation diagram and the corresponding experimental stability map of an optically injected semiconductor laser over a large range of relevant injection parameter values. The bifurcation diagram encompasses both local and global bifurcations mapping out regions of regular, chaotic, and multistable behavior in considerable detail. This demonstrates the power of dynamical systems modeling

Sebastian Wieczorek; Thomas B. Simpson; Bernd Krauskopf; Daan Lenstra

2002-01-01

183

Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating  

E-print Network

presents Proteus, a core calculus that models dynamic software updating, a service for fixing bugs and adding features to a running program. Proteus permits a program's type structure to change dynamically, to make update success more predictable. We have implemented Proteus for C, and briefly discuss our

Hicks, Michael

184

Development of patient specific cardiovascular models predicting dynamics  

E-print Network

. For example, mean blood flow velocity and pressure show similar dynamics for healthy young and hyper- tensiveDevelopment of patient specific cardiovascular models predicting dynamics in response. Special attention is paid to the control of blood pressure, cerebral blood flow velocity, and heart rate

185

Lasing without Inversion: Counterintuitive Population Dynamics in the Transient Regime  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We explore a three-level ? scheme to demonstrate that the phenomenon of lasing without inversion (LWI) can be observed in the transient regime. We demonstrate that the pure LWI contribution to the gain of a probe field is distinct from both the resonant absorption (or gain) and the coherent Raman gain (or absorption) by choosing specific initial populations in the dressed-state basis. The suppression of the non-LWI (resonant and Raman) processes is followed by the “rich get richer” (capitalistic) effect for the ground-state population dynamics: Initially, the more populated ground state becomes even more populated. The conditions for the observation of the effect are specified.

Kilin, S. Ya.; Kapale, Kishore T.; Scully, Marlan O.

2008-05-01

186

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics  

SciTech Connect

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

2013-01-01

187

Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks  

E-print Network

Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks *Travis C. Porco, U.S.A. Summary: HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis out- breaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic

Blower, Sally

188

Dynamic knee loads during gait predict proximal tibial bone distribution  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study tested the validity of the prediction of dynamic knee loads based on gait measurements. The relationship between the predicted loads at the knee and the distribution of bone between the medial and lateral sides of the tibia was examined. The motion and external forces and moments at the knee were measured during gait and a statically determinate muscle

Debra E. Hurwitz; Dale R. Sumner; Thomas P. Andriacchi; David A. Sugar

1998-01-01

189

Quantifying dynamical predictability: the pseudo-ensemble approach  

Microsoft Academic Search

The ensemble technique has been widely used in numerical weather prediction and extended-range forecasting. Current approaches\\u000a to evaluate the predictability using the ensemble technique can be divided into two major groups. One is dynamical, including\\u000a generating Lyapunov vectors, bred vectors, and singular vectors, sampling the fastest error-growing directions of the phase\\u000a space, and examining the dependence of prediction efficiency on

Jianbo Gao; Wenwen Tung; Jing Hu

2009-01-01

190

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Harris, N. C.; Kauffman, M. J.; Mills, L. S.

2008-01-01

191

Bidirectional Dynamics for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction  

Microsoft Academic Search

Connectionist models for learning in sequential domains are typically dynamical systems that use hidden states to store contextual\\u000a information. In principle, these models can adapt to variable time lags and perform complex sequential mappings. In spite\\u000a of several successful applications (mostly based on hidden Markov models), the general class of sequence learning problems\\u000a is still far from being satisfactorily solved.

Pierre Baldi; Søren Brunak; Paolo Frasconi; Gianluca Pollastri; Giovanni Soda

192

Predicting Object Dynamics in Scenes Supplementary Material  

E-print Network

dynamics (e.g., in Scene 2). Scene 1 Previous Scene Ground Truth Random Human Bag-of-Words Copy Bag-of-Words Transfer No CRF Full Scene 2 Previous Scene Ground Truth Random Human Bag-of-Words Copy Bag-of-Words Transfer No CRF Full 4 #12;Scene 3 Previous Scene Ground Truth Random Human Bag-of-Words Copy Bag

Gupta, Abhinav

193

Accounting for Mating Pair Formation in Plasmid Population Dynamics  

PubMed Central

Plasmids are important vehicles for horizontal gene transfer and rapid adaptation in bacteria, including the spread of antibiotic resistance genes. Conjugative transfer of a plasmid from a plasmid-bearing to a plasmid-free bacterial cell requires contact and attachment of the cells followed by plasmid DNA transfer prior to detachment. We introduce a system of differential equations for plasmid transfer in well-mixed populations that accounts for attachment, DNA transfer, and detachment dynamics. These equations offer advantages over classical mass-action models that combine these three processes into a single “bulk” conjugation rate. By decomposing the process of plasmid transfer into its constituent parts, this new model provides a framework that facilitates meaningful comparisons of plasmid transfer rates in surface and liquid environments. The model also allows one to account for experimental and environmental effects such as mixing intensity. To test the adequacy of the model and further explore the effects of mixing on plasmid transfer, we performed batch culture experiments using three different plasmids and a range of different mixing intensities. The results show that plasmid transfer is optimized at low to moderate shaking speeds and that vigorous shaking negatively affects plasmid transfer. Using reasonable assumptions on attachment and detachment rates, the mathematical model predicts the same behavior. PMID:19835890

Zhong, Xue; Krol, Jaroslaw E.; Top, Eva M.; Krone, Stephen M.

2009-01-01

194

Phenotypic Variance Predicts Symbiont Population Densities in Corals: A Modeling Approach  

PubMed Central

Background We test whether the phenotypic variance of symbionts (Symbiodinium) in corals is closely related with the capacity of corals to acclimatize to increasing seawater temperatures. Moreover, we assess whether more specialist symbionts will increase within coral hosts under ocean warming. The present study is only applicable to those corals that naturally have the capacity to support more than one type of Symbiodinium within the lifetime of a colony; for example, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. Methodology/Principal Findings The population dynamics of competing Symbiodinium symbiont populations were projected through time in coral hosts using a novel, discrete time optimal–resource model. Models were run for two Atlantic Ocean localities. Four symbiont populations, with different environmental optima and phenotypic variances, were modeled to grow, divide, and compete in the corals under seasonal fluctuations in solar insolation and seawater temperature. Elevated seawater temperatures were input into the model 1.5°C above the seasonal summer average, and the symbiont population response was observed for each location. The models showed dynamic fluctuations in Symbiodinium populations densities within corals. Population density predictions for Lee Stocking Island, the Bahamas, where temperatures were relatively homogenous throughout the year, showed a dominance of both type 2, with high phenotypic variance, and type 1, a high-temperature and high-insolation specialist. Whereas the densities of Symbiodinium types 3 and 4, a high-temperature, low-insolation specialist, and a high-temperature, low-insolation generalist, remained consistently low. Predictions for Key Largo, Florida, where environmental conditions were more seasonally variable, showed the coexistence of generalists (types 2 and 4) and low densities of specialists (types 1 and 3). When elevated temperatures were input into the model, population densities in corals at Lee Stocking Island showed an emergence of high-temperature specialists. However, even under high temperatures, corals in the Florida Keys were dominated by generalists. Conclusions/Significance Predictions at higher seawater temperatures showed endogenous shuffling and an emergence of the high-temperature Symbiodinium specialists, even though their phenotypic variance was low. The model shows that sustaining these “hidden” specialists becomes advantageous under thermal stress conditions, and shuffling symbionts may increase the corals' capacity to acclimatize but not adapt to climatechange–induced ocean warming. PMID:20169202

van Woesik, Robert; Shiroma, Kazuyo; Koksal, Semen

2010-01-01

195

Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.  

PubMed

Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by moving beyond estimating changes in vital rates to analyses of population-level impacts. PMID:18488620

Berger, Kim Murray; Conner, Mary M

2008-04-01

196

Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions  

PubMed Central

Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution. PMID:17803356

Yoshida, Takehito; Ellner, Stephen P; Jones, Laura E; Bohannan, Brendan J. M; Lenski, Richard E; Hairston, Nelson G

2007-01-01

197

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

198

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

199

Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

"Because rocket engines operate under extreme temperature and pressure, they present a unique challenge to designers who must test and simulate the technology. To this end, CRAFT Tech Inc., of Pipersville, Pennsylvania, won Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Marshall Space Flight Center to develop software to simulate cryogenic fluid flows and related phenomena. CRAFT Tech enhanced its CRUNCH CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software to simulate phenomena in various liquid propulsion components and systems. Today, both government and industry clients in the aerospace, utilities, and petrochemical industries use the software for analyzing existing systems as well as designing new ones."

2010-01-01

200

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel  

PubMed Central

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?s included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

201

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.  

PubMed

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

202

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.  

PubMed

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. PMID:21905432

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

203

Predicting correlated responses in natural populations: changes in JHE activity in the Bermuda population of the sand cricket, Gryllus firmus  

Microsoft Academic Search

Quantitative genetic methods have been used to examine selection responses in domesticated organisms but there are few cases of their application to predict changes in natural populations: there are, to our knowledge, no cases in which correlated responses to selection have been predicted. In the present paper we use quantitative genetic parameters estimated from a half-sib experiment to predict the

Derek A Roff; Daphne J Fairbairn

1999-01-01

204

Stochastic population dynamics and life-history variation in marine fish species.  

PubMed

We examined whether differences in life-history characteristics can explain interspecific variation in stochastic population dynamics in nine marine fish species living in the Barents Sea system. After observation errors in population estimates were accounted for, temporal variability in natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate was negatively related to generation time. Mean natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate were lower in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Thus, important species-specific characteristics of the population dynamics were related to the species position along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. These relationships were further associated with interspecific differences in ecology: species at the fast end were mainly pelagic, with short generation times and high natural mortality, annual recruitment, and population growth rates, and also showed high temporal variability in those demographic traits. In contrast, species at the slow end were long-lived, deepwater species with low rates and reduced temporal variability in the same demographic traits. These interspecific relationships show that the life-history characteristics of a species can predict basic features of interspecific variation in population dynamical characteristics of marine fish, which should have implications for the choice of harvest strategy to facilitate sustainable yields. PMID:22854080

Bjørkvoll, Eirin; Grøtan, Vidar; Aanes, Sondre; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Aanes, Ronny

2012-09-01

205

Population dynamics and spatial behaviour of Microtus tatricus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia)  

Microsoft Academic Search

The population dynamics of the Tatra vole Microtus tatricus (Kratochvíl, 1952) (Arvicolinae, Rodentia) was monitored as part of a long-term study (1996–2008) of demography of small\\u000a mammals conducted in Western Tatra Mountains—Rohá?e, Slovakia. We observed low abundance and population densities and a balanced\\u000a sex ratio but slightly more frequent captures of females. Reproductively active Tatra voles were significantly larger and

Miroslava Rudá; L’udovít Kocian; Natália Martínková; Dávid Žiak

2010-01-01

206

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The study of earthquakes is one of the most interesting and challenging problems in modern geophysics. Understanding dynamics, mechanical properties, chemistry, and other aspects of earthquake phenomena is crucial for both the scientific community and society at large. As a consequence, the development of different prediction techniques is of tremendous significance for many aspects of our life. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction is a review of methods and techniques developed by the group of V.I. Keilis-Borok concerning intermediate-term predictions based on premonitory seismicity patterns. The book is well organized, clearly written, and can be used as a reference for many concepts and ideas in the field of mathematical prediction of catastrophic events. It can also serve as a “cookbook” for applying several prediction algorithms developed by the authors.

Shcherbakov, Robert

207

Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.  

PubMed

Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization. PMID:23707910

Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

2013-07-01

208

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-04-01

209

Heterogeneous structure of stem cells dynamics: statistical models and quantitative predictions.  

PubMed

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

210

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions  

PubMed Central

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

211

Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This peer-reviewed article from BioScience journal is on the topic of population growth. We performed a meta-analysis on the basis of 69 past studies that have assessed a limit to the world population. The estimates of this limit range from 0.5 billion to 1 1021 billion people. A meta-analysis allows us to see what overall picture emerges when different methods, limiting factors, levels of aggregation, and data are taken into account. Limiting factors for the world population include water availability, energy, carbon, forest products, nonrenewable resources, heat removal, photosynthetic capacity, and the availability of land for food production. Methods employed in the population studies include spatial extrapolation, modeling of multiple regions, temporal extrapolation, actual supply of a resource, hypothetical modeling, and dynamic systems modeling. Many studies rely on important assumptions about the level of technology, the energy intake per person, and the available arable land. The meta-analysis employs both descriptive statistics and regression analysis. We used the findings of these analyses to propose a number of meta-estimates of limits to world population. When taking all studies into account, the best point estimate is 7.7 billion people; the lower and upper bounds, given current technology, are 0.65 billion and 98 billion people, respectively. We offer a range of other conditional estimates as well. An important conclusion of this study is that recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit.

JEROEN C. J. M. VAN DEN BERGH and PIET RIETVELD (;)

2004-03-01

212

Assessment of algorithms for predicting drug-drug interactions via inhibition mechanisms: comparison of dynamic and static models  

PubMed Central

AIMS Static and dynamic models (incorporating the time course of the inhibitor) were assessed for their ability to predict drug–drug interactions (DDIs) using a population-based ADME simulator (Simcyp®V8). The impact of active metabolites, dosing time and the ability to predict inter-individual variability in DDI magnitude were investigated using the dynamic model. METHODS Thirty-five in vivo DDIs involving azole inhibitors and benzodiazepines were predicted using the static and dynamic model; both models were employed within Simcyp for consistency in parameters. Simulations comprised of 10 trials with matching population demographics and dosage regimen to the in vivo studies. Predictive utility of the static and dynamic model was assessed relative to the inhibitor or victim drug investigated. RESULTS Use of the dynamic and static models resulted in comparable prediction success, with 71 and 77% of DDIs predicted within two-fold, respectively. Over 40% of strong DDIs (>five-fold AUC increase) were under-predicted by both models. Incorporation of the itraconazole metabolite into the dynamic model resulted in increased prediction accuracy of strong DDIs (80% within two-fold). Bias and imprecision in prediction of triazolam DDIs were higher in comparison with midazolam and alprazolam; >50% of triazolam DDIs were under-predicted regardless of the model used. Predicted inter-individual variability in the AUC ratio (coefficient of variation of 45%) was consistent with the observed variability (50%). CONCLUSIONS High prediction accuracy was observed using both the Simcyp dynamic and static models. The differences observed with the dose staggering and the incorporation of active metabolite highlight the importance of these variables in DDI prediction. PMID:21143503

Guest, Eleanor J; Rowland-Yeo, Karen; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Tucker, Geoffrey T; Houston, J Brian; Galetin, Aleksandra

2011-01-01

213

Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article, we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantifying the effects of climate change at the species level. The global population dynamics approach, which relies on distribution-wide, data-driven analyses of dynamics, goes beyond quantifying biotic interactions in population dynamics to identify hot spots of response to climate change. Such hot spots highlight populations or locations within speciesâ distributions that are particularly sensitive to climate change, and identification of them should focus conservation and management efforts. An important result of the analyses highlighted here is pronounced variation at the species level in the strength and direction of population responses to warming. Although this variation complicates species-level predictions of responses to climate change, the global population dynamics approach may improve our understanding of the complex implications of climate change for species persistence or extinction.

Eric Post (Pennsylvania State University;)

2009-06-01

214

Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters  

E-print Network

We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

D. Vanbeveren; H. Belkus; J. Van Bever; N. Mennekens

2008-01-17

215

A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic  

E-print Network

A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department of Mathematics Towson University May 24, 2008 Mike O'Leary (Towson University) A Diffusion Model in Genetics May determine the long-time behavior of the total genetic variance? Portions of this work are joint with Judith

O'Leary, Michael

216

Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes  

E-print Network

Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes: a synthesis Ecology of Freshwater Fish 2006: 15: 200­210 Printed in Singapore � All rights reserved � 2006 The Authors Journal compilation � Blackwell Munksgaard ECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH 200 doi: 10.1111/j.1600

McMahon, Thomas E.

217

The HIV coreceptor switch: a population dynamical perspective  

E-print Network

for CCR5 to a preference for CXCR4 in w50% of infected individuals. The change in coreceptor usage resolved, the population dynamical mechanisms leading to the emergence of CXCR4-using HIV variants in some receptors CCR5 and CXCR4 [1]. Over the course of the infection, the coreceptor usage of HIV changes from

Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

218

How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?  

Microsoft Academic Search

We modelled how stress affects the population dynamics of infectious disease. We were specifically concerned with stress that increased susceptibility of uninfected hosts when exposed to infection. If such stresses also reduced resources, fecundity and\\/or survivorship, there was a reduction in the host carrying capacity. This lowered the contact between infected and uninfected hosts, thereby decreasing transmission. In addition, stress

Kevin D. Lafferty; Robert D. Holt

2003-01-01

219

Population Dynamics and Conservation of Commensal Bonnet Macaques  

Microsoft Academic Search

Whereas much attention is paid to the conservation and management of threatened species of primates, little work is reported on the species that are at lower risk. We report data on demography and population dynamics in commensal bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata radiata) sharing human habitats in Intensive Cultivation, Dry Cultivation and Scrub Forest zones around the city of Mysore, south

Mewa Singh; N. Raghunatha Rao

2004-01-01

220

Applications of Perron-Frobenius theory to population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result is further refined with some additional nonnegative matrix theory. When the fertility matrix is scaled by the net reproductive rate, the

Hans Schneider; Chi Kwong Li

2001-01-01

221

Population Dynamics of Wild Bonobos ( Pan paniscus ) at Wamba  

Microsoft Academic Search

We analyzed population dynamics and birth seasonality of wild bonobos at Wamba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, based on 20 years of observations (1976–1996). Wamba Bonobo infant mortality is much lower than that reported for chimpanzees. This seemes to be related to several socioecological characteristics of bonobos: the use of abundant fruit and herbaceous foods, larger food patch size, female

Takeshi Furuichi; Gen'ichi Idani; Hiroshi Ihobe; Suehisa Kuroda; Koji Kitamura; Akio Mori; Tomoo Enomoto; Naobi Okayasu; Chie Hashimoto; Takayoshi Kano

1998-01-01

222

Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales  

E-print Network

Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in prairie wetlands and developed a bioenergetics model to estimate-de-boules (Pimephales promelas) dans les milieux humides des prairies et mis au point un modèle de bioénergétique pour

223

Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters  

E-print Network

We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

Vanbeveren, D; Van Bever, J; Mennekens, N

2008-01-01

224

Population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) can be studied  

E-print Network

48 Population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) can be studied by using a variety of fishery depen- dent and independent methods, such as the use of crab pots (Abbe and Stagg, 1996), bottom fisheries data sets provide extensive information on blue crab landings which are related to popula- tion

225

Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics  

E-print Network

Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics Fr´ed´erique Billy1 , Jean, CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, F91128 Palaiseau, France. olivier.fercoq@inria.fr 1 Introduction Cancer of tissue in volume, mass and function to ensure satisfaction of the needs of the whole organism. In cancer

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

226

EFFECTS OF CATTLE GRAZING ON SHOOT POPULATION DYNAMICS OF  

E-print Network

EFFECTS OF CATTLE GRAZING ON SHOOT POPULATION DYNAMICS OF BEAKED SEDGE Douglas R. Allen Clayton B. Marlow ABSTRACT More information is needed on the grazing responses of wetland graminoids to improve protected and 40 plots were grazed by cattle in June and September each year. Altlwugh number ofshoots

227

Feature Engineering for Supervised Link Prediction on Dynamic Social Networks  

E-print Network

Link prediction is an important network science problem in many domains such as social networks, chem/bio-informatics, etc. Most of these networks are dynamic in nature with patterns evolving over time. In such cases, it is necessary to incorporate time in the mining process in a seamless manner to aid in better prediction performance. We propose a two-step solution strategy to the link prediction problem in dynamic networks in this work. The first step involves a novel yet simple feature construction approach using a combination of domain and topological attributes of the graph. In the second phase, we perform unconstrained edge selection to identify potential candidates for prediction by any generic two-class learner. We design various experiments on a real world collaboration network and show the effectiveness of our approach.

Narasimhan, Jeyanthi

2014-01-01

228

Uncovering epidemiological dynamics in heterogeneous host populations using phylogenetic methods  

PubMed Central

Host population structure has a major influence on epidemiological dynamics. However, in particular for sexually transmitted diseases, quantitative data on population contact structure are hard to obtain. Here, we introduce a new method that quantifies host population structure based on phylogenetic trees, which are obtained from pathogen genetic sequence data. Our method is based on a maximum-likelihood framework and uses a multi-type branching process, under which each host is assigned to a type (subpopulation). In a simulation study, we show that our method produces accurate parameter estimates for phylogenetic trees in which each tip is assigned to a type, as well for phylogenetic trees in which the type of the tip is unknown. We apply the method to a Latvian HIV-1 dataset, quantifying the impact of the intravenous drug user epidemic on the heterosexual epidemic (known tip states), and identifying superspreader dynamics within the men-having-sex-with-men epidemic (unknown tip states). PMID:23382421

Stadler, Tanja; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2013-01-01

229

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences  

SciTech Connect

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J.D. (USAF, Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA (United States))

1991-01-01

230

Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review  

PubMed Central

Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

Perc, Matjaz; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Szolnoki, Attila; Floria, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

2013-01-01

231

The influence of context-dependent maternal effects on population dynamics: an experimental test  

PubMed Central

Parental effects arise when either the maternal or paternal phenotype influences the phenotypes of subsequent generations. Simple analytical models assume maternal effects are a mechanism creating delayed density dependence. Such models predict that maternal effects can very easily lead to population cycles. Despite this, unambiguous maternal-effect mediated cycles have not been demonstrated in any system. Additionally, much evidence has arisen to invalidate the underlying assumption that there is a simple positive correlation between maternal performance and offspring performance. A key issue in understanding how maternal effects may affect population dynamics is determining how the expression of parental effects changes in different environments. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that maternal effects influence population dynamics in a context-dependent way. Populations of the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, were set up at high density (500 eggs) or low density (50 eggs), with eggs that were either laid by young mothers or old mothers (a previously documented maternal effect in this system). The influence of maternal age on both population and egg and body-size dynamics was only observed in the populations initiated under low density rather than high density. This difference was attributable to the context-dependence of maternal effects at the individual level. In low-density (high food) conditions, maternal effects have an impact on offspring reproductive performance, creating an impact on the population growth rate. In high density (low food), maternal effects impact more on juvenile survival (not adult size or reproduction), creating a smaller impact on the population growth rate. This context dependence of effects at the population level means that, in fluctuating populations, maternal effects cause intermittent delayed density dependence that does not lead to persistent cycles. PMID:19324610

Plaistow, S.J.; Benton, T.G.

2009-01-01

232

Prediction of breed composition in an admixed cattle population.  

PubMed

Swiss Fleckvieh was established in 1970 as a composite of Simmental (SI) and Red Holstein Friesian (RHF) cattle. Breed composition is currently reported based on pedigree information. Information on a large number of molecular markers potentially provides more accurate information. For the analysis, we used Illumina BovineSNP50 Genotyping Beadchip data for 90 pure SI, 100 pure RHF and 305 admixed bulls. The scope of the study was to compare the performance of hidden Markov models, as implemented in structure software, with methods conventionally used in genomic selection [BayesB, partial least squares regression (PLSR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variable selection)] for predicting breed composition. We checked the performance of algorithms for a set of 40 492 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), subsets of evenly distributed SNPs and subsets with different allele frequencies in the pure populations, using F(ST) as an indicator. Key results are correlations of admixture levels estimated with the various algorithms with admixture based on pedigree information. For the full set, PLSR, BayesB and structure performed in a very similar manner (correlations of 0.97), whereas the correlation of LASSO and pedigree admixture was lower (0.93). With decreasing number of SNPs, correlations decreased substantially only for 5% or 1% of all SNPs. With SNPs chosen according to F(ST) , results were similar to results obtained with the full set. Only when using 96 and 48 SNPs with the highest F(ST) , correlations dropped to 0.92 and 0.90 respectively. Reducing the number of pure animals in training sets to 50, 20 and 10 each did not cause a drop in the correlation with pedigree admixture. PMID:23061480

Frkonja, A; Gredler, B; Schnyder, U; Curik, I; Sölkner, J

2012-12-01

233

Stochastic simulation of structured skin cell population dynamics.  

PubMed

The epidermis is the outmost skin tissue. It operates as a first defense system to process inflammatory signals and responds by producing inflammatory mediators that promote the recruitment of immune cells. Various skin diseases such as atopic dermatitis occur as a result of the defect of proper skin barrier function and successive impaired inflammatory responses. The onset of such a skin disease links to the disturbed epidermal homeostasis regulated by appropriate self-renewal and differentiation of epidermal stem cells. The theory of physiologically structured population models provides a versatile framework to formulate mathematical models which describe the growth dynamics of a cell population such as the epidermis. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to implement stochastic simulation for a class of physiologically structured population models. We demonstrate that the developed algorithm is applicable to several cell population models and typical age-structured population models. On the basis of the developed algorithm, we investigate stochastic dynamics of skin cell populations and spread of inflammation. It is revealed that demographic stochasticity can bring considerable impact on the outcome of inflammation spread at the tissue level. PMID:23255068

Nakaoka, Shinji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2013-03-01

234

Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics  

PubMed Central

Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

2013-01-01

235

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals.  

PubMed

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark-recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark-recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources. PMID:24649642

Zipkin, Elise F; Thorson, James T; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard B; Letcher, Benjamin H; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

236

Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

2007-01-01

237

Realistic population dynamics in epidemiological models: the impact of population decline on the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases  

Microsoft Academic Search

Most contributions in the field of mathematical modelling of childhood infectious diseases transmission dynamics have focused on stationary or exponentially growing populations. In this paper an epidemiological model with realistic demography is used to investigate the impact of the non-equilibrium conditions typical of the transition to sustained below replacement fertility (BRF) recently observed in a number of western countries, upon

Piero Manfredi; John R. Williams

2004-01-01

238

Lasing without inversion: counterintuitive population dynamics in the transient regime.  

PubMed

We explore a three-level Lambda scheme to demonstrate that the phenomenon of lasing without inversion (LWI) can be observed in the transient regime. We demonstrate that the pure LWI contribution to the gain of a probe field is distinct from both the resonant absorption (or gain) and the coherent Raman gain (or absorption) by choosing specific initial populations in the dressed-state basis. The suppression of the non-LWI (resonant and Raman) processes is followed by the "rich get richer" (capitalistic) effect for the ground-state population dynamics: Initially, the more populated ground state becomes even more populated. The conditions for the observation of the effect are specified. PMID:18518286

Kilin, S Ya; Kapale, Kishore T; Scully, Marlan O

2008-05-01

239

Population coding of tone stimuli in auditory cortex: dynamic rate vector analysis  

PubMed Central

Neural representations of even temporally unstructured stimuli can show complex temporal dynamics. In many systems, neuronal population codes show “progressive differentiation,” whereby population responses to different stimuli grow further apart during a stimulus presentation. Here we analyzed the response of auditory cortical populations in rats to extended tones. At onset (up to 300 ms), tone responses involved strong excitation of a large number of neurons; during sustained responses (after 500 ms) overall firing rate decreased, but most cells still showed a statistically significant difference in firing rate. Population vector trajectories evoked by different tone frequencies expanded rapidly along an initially similar trajectory in the first tens of ms after tone onset, later diverging to smaller amplitude fixed points corresponding to sustained responses. The angular difference between onset and sustained responses to the same tone was greater than between different tones in the same stimulus epoch. No clear orthogonalization of responses was found with time, and predictability of the stimulus from population activity also decreased during this period compared to onset. The question of whether population activity grew more or less sparse with time depended on the precise mathematical sense given to this term. We conclude that auditory cortical population responses to tones differ from those reported in many other systems, with progressive differentiation not seen for sustained stimuli. Sustained acoustic stimuli are typically not behaviorally salient: we hypothesize that the dynamics we observe may instead allow an animal to maintain a representation of such sounds, at low energetic cost. PMID:19840110

Bartho, Peter; Curto, Carina; Luczak, Artur; Marguet, Stephan L.; Harris, Kenneth D.

2010-01-01

240

Effects of dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function of multiple population globular clusters  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Many observational studies have shown that globular clusters {GCs} host multiple stellar populations, challenging the standard view of GC formation, in which GCs are simple stellar populations composed of stars of uniform age and chemical composition.Theoretical models of multiple-population GC formation predict that second-generation {SG} stars form in a compact subsystem embedded in a more extended first-generation {FG} cluster. Observational studies have found that in several GCs SG stars are indeed more concentrated in the cluster inner regions and still retain memory of the initial segregation predicted by theoretical models. We propose to study the effects of dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function {MF} in multiple-population GCs. No study has previously addressed this problem in this context, taking into account the structural properties predicted by models of formation and evolution of multiple-population GCs and exploring the evolution of the SG and FG MFs. We will study the evolution of the total MF of the cluster as well as the individual MFs of the FG and SG populations. We will address a series of questions concerning the evolution of both the global MF and the local MF {measured at different distances from the cluster center}, and the relation between the present-day MF and the initial MF. We will determine how the evolution of the combined MF, and the differences between the FG and the SG MFs, can be used to explore the formation and dynamics of multiple-population GCs. As observational studies of these clusters continue to improve, our work will provide the tools needed to interpret existing data and guide future observational projects.

Vesperini, Enrico

2013-10-01

241

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.  

PubMed

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony. PMID:22961371

Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

2013-04-01

242

Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory  

E-print Network

Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for Ph.D. researchers to advance capabilities in ocean data assimilation and probabilistic, representation of ocean processes affecting temperature, salinity, and mixed- layer depth, uncertainty analysis

243

Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory  

E-print Network

Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers (both permanent and postdoctoral) to push forward the frontiers of ocean of oceanic processes, construction and analysis of ocean models and forecast systems, and basic and applied

244

Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory  

E-print Network

circulation, estuarine and riverine modeling, Arctic ice modeling, internal waves and oceanOcean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers to push forward the frontiers of ocean forecasting. Problems that must

245

Short-term Climate Variability: Dynamics and Prediction  

Microsoft Academic Search

Research on atmospheric ow dynamics is orientated toward the study and prediction of distinctive o w phenomena. At the present two emerging frontiers are the study of (a) large- scale o w systems exhibiting uctuations on decadal and inter-annual time-scales, and (b) severe mesoscale weather phenomena. In this project, these frontiers are explored in the context of climate variation and

Huw C. Davies; Christof Appenzeller

246

Mutatis Mutandis: Safe and Predictable Dynamic Software Updating  

E-print Network

present Proteus, a core calculus for dy- namic software updating in C-like languages that is flexible, safe, and predictable. Proteus supports dynamic updates to functions (even active ones), to named types, capability, Proteus Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal

Hicks, Michael

247

The Predictive Validity of Dynamic Assessment: A Review  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The authors report on a mixed-methods review of 24 studies that explores the predictive validity of dynamic assessment (DA). For 15 of the studies, they conducted quantitative analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients. They descriptively examined the remaining studies to determine if their results were consistent with findings from the…

Caffrey, Erin; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2008-01-01

248

Predictive Internal Neural Dynamics for Delay Compensation Jaerock Kwon  

E-print Network

Sensor Spinal Cord Motor Output t t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 Brainstem Cerebellum Basal Ganglia Motor Sensory-delay compensation; neural network; prediction; internal dynamics; evolutionary computing; I. INTRODUCTION processing. Visual stimuli must go through a series of steps in order to reach higher level visual pro

Choe, Yoonsuck

249

Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor  

E-print Network

Comparison of Ionospheric Observations and Dynamical Predictions of Meteor Showers at Mars Paul intervals when there are many of these profiles and call them meteor showers We study cometary orbits to identify the parent bodies responsible for the meteor showers #12;Meteoric Layers (MEX) Profile with EUV

Withers, Paul

250

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Dynamic distributed predictive learning models that preserve  

E-print Network

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Dynamic distributed predictive learning models that preserve privacy for hospitals patient data from multiple hospitals can serve as a tool for suggestive knowledge in clinical decision a targeted model from mul- tiple hospitals when a local clinical data repository does not have sufficient

Obradovic, Zoran

251

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

252

Structural Drift: The Population Dynamics of Sequential Learning  

PubMed Central

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream “teacher” and then pass samples from the model to their downstream “student”. It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory. PMID:22685387

Crutchfield, James P.; Whalen, Sean

2012-01-01

253

Lineage grammars: describing, simulating and analyzing population dynamics  

PubMed Central

Background Precise description of the dynamics of biological processes would enable the mathematical analysis and computational simulation of complex biological phenomena. Languages such as Chemical Reaction Networks and Process Algebras cater for the detailed description of interactions among individuals and for the simulation and analysis of ensuing behaviors of populations. However, often knowledge of such interactions is lacking or not available. Yet complete oblivion to the environment would make the description of any biological process vacuous. Here we present a language for describing population dynamics that abstracts away detailed interaction among individuals, yet captures in broad terms the effect of the changing environment, based on environment-dependent Stochastic Tree Grammars (eSTG). It is comprised of a set of stochastic tree grammar transition rules, which are context-free and as such abstract away specific interactions among individuals. Transition rule probabilities and rates, however, can depend on global parameters such as population size, generation count, and elapsed time. Results We show that eSTGs conveniently describe population dynamics at multiple levels including cellular dynamics, tissue development and niches of organisms. Notably, we show the utilization of eSTG for cases in which the dynamics is regulated by environmental factors, which affect the fate and rate of decisions of the different species. eSTGs are lineage grammars, in the sense that execution of an eSTG program generates the corresponding lineage trees, which can be used to analyze the evolutionary and developmental history of the biological system under investigation. These lineage trees contain a representation of the entire events history of the system, including the dynamics that led to the existing as well as to the extinct individuals. Conclusions We conclude that our suggested formalism can be used to easily specify, simulate and analyze complex biological systems, and supports modular description of local biological dynamics that can be later used as “black boxes” in a larger scope, thus enabling a gradual and hierarchical definition and simulation of complex biological systems. The simple, yet robust formalism enables to target a broad class of stochastic dynamic behaviors, especially those that can be modeled using global environmental feedback regulation rather than direct interaction between individuals. PMID:25047682

2014-01-01

254

Cryptic genetic variation in natural populations: a predictive framework.  

PubMed

Understanding how populations respond to rapid environmental change is critical both for preserving biodiversity and for human health. An increasing number of studies have shown that genetic variation that has no discernable effect under common ecological conditions can become amplified under stressful or novel conditions, suggesting that environmental change per se can provide the raw materials for adaptation. Indeed, the release of such hidden, or "cryptic," genetic variants has been increasingly viewed as playing a general and important role in allowing populations to respond to rapid environmental change. However, additional studies have suggested that there is a balance between cryptic genetic variants that are potentially adaptive in future environments and genetic variants that are deleterious. In this article, we begin by discussing how population and environmental parameters-such as effective population size and the historical frequency and strength of selection under inducing conditions-influence relative amounts of cryptic genetic variation among populations and the overall phenotypic effects of such variation. The amount and distribution of cryptic genetic variation will, in turn, determine the likelihood that cryptic variants, once expressed, will be adaptive or maladaptive during environmental transitions. We then present specific approaches for measuring these parameters in natural populations. Finally, we discuss one natural system that will be conducive to testing whether populations that vary in these parameters harbor different amounts, or types, of cryptic genetic variation. Generally, teasing apart how population and environmental parameters influence the accumulation of cryptic genetic variation will help us to understand how populations endure and adapt (or fail to adapt) to natural environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance. PMID:24944116

Ledón-Rettig, Cris C; Pfennig, David W; Chunco, Amanda J; Dworkin, Ian

2014-11-01

255

Population dynamics of houseflies, Musca domestica , on experimentally accumulated refuse  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary  The population dynamics of the housefly,Musca domestica, on patchy and unstable habitats consisting of refuse was investigated at a waste disposal site by using sticky flypaper\\u000a and mark-release-recapture technique (Jolly-Seber's method). The newly disposed garbage was favorable for breeding of the flies for about one month after being disposed, while\\u000a a mixture of garbage and ash from incinerated refuse was

Chobei Imai

1984-01-01

256

Animal movements and population dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes  

Microsoft Academic Search

Organisms respond to environmental heterogeneity at different scales and in different ways. These differences are consequences\\u000a of how the movement characteristics of animals—their movement rates, directionality, turning frequencies, and turning angles—interact\\u000a with patch and boundary features in landscape mosaics. The interactions of movement patterns with landscape features in turn\\u000a produce spatial patterns in individual space-use, population dynamics and dispersion, gene

A. R. Johnsonl; J. A. Wiens; B. T. Milne; T. O. Crist

1992-01-01

257

Asynchronous population dynamics of Siberian lemmings across the Palaearctic tundra  

Microsoft Academic Search

The synchrony of Siberian lemming (Lemmus sibiricus L.) population dynamics was investigated during a ship-borne expedition along the Palaearctic tundra coast in the summer\\u000a of 1994. On 12 sites along the coast from the Kola Peninsula to Wrangel Island, relative densities of lemmings were recorded\\u000a using a standardised snap-trapping programme. The phase position of the lemming cycle in each of

Sam Erlinge; Kjell Danell; Peter Frodin; Dennis Hasselquist; Patric Nilsson; Eva-Britt Olofsson; Mikael Svensson

1999-01-01

258

Applications of Perron–Frobenius theory to population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

.  ?By the use of Perron–Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem\\u000a of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result, which\\u000a is closely related to the Stein–Rosenberg theorem in numerical linear algebra, is further refined with some additional nonnegative\\u000a matrix theory.

Chi-Kwong Li; Hans Schneider

2002-01-01

259

Predator effects on prey population dynamics in open systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Animal population dynamics in open systems are affected not only by agents of mortality and the influence of species interactions\\u000a on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss\\u000a rates of two mayfly species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience different abiotic\\u000a conditions

Barbara L. Peckarsky; Billie L. Kerans; Brad W. Taylor; Angus R. McIntosh

2008-01-01

260

Population dynamics of bacteria in Arctic sea ice  

Microsoft Academic Search

The dynamics of bacterial populations in annual sea ice were measured throughout the vernal bloom of ice algae near Resolute in the Canadian Arctic. The maximum concentration of bacteria was 6.0·1011 cells·m?2 (about 2.0·1010 cells·l?1) and average cell volume was 0.473 ?m3 in the lower 4 cm of the ice sheet. On average, 37% of the bacteria were epiphytic and

Ralph E. H. Smith; Pierre Clement

1989-01-01

261

Dynamic energy budget theory and population ecology: lessons from Daphnia  

PubMed Central

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically—through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a ‘regression’ connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species. PMID:20921052

Nisbet, Roger M.; McCauley, Edward; Johnson, Leah R.

2010-01-01

262

From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing the Effects of Different Population  

E-print Network

From Single-Cell Genetic Architecture to Cell Population Dynamics: Quantitatively Decomposing, Texas ABSTRACT Phenotypic cell-to-cell variability or cell population heterogeneity originates from two fundamentally different sources: unequal partitioning of cellular material at cell division and stochastic

Bernard, Samuel

263

How predictable : modeling rates of change in individuals and populations  

E-print Network

This thesis develops methodologies to measure rates of change in individual human behavior, and to capture statistical regularities in change at the population level, in three pieces: i) a model of individual rate of change ...

Krumme, Katherine

2013-01-01

264

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households  

PubMed Central

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

265

VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population  

PubMed Central

Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

2014-01-01

266

The Effect of Temperature on Anopheles Mosquito Population Dynamics and the Potential for Malaria Transmission  

PubMed Central

The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases. PMID:24244467

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.; Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Read, Andrew F.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bj?rnstad, Ottar N.

2013-01-01

267

Orbit determination and prediction study for Dynamic Explorer 2  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Definitive orbit determination accuracy and orbit prediction accuracy for the Dynamic Explorer-2 (DE-2) are studied using the trajectory determination system for the period within six weeks of spacecraft reentry. Baseline accuracies using standard orbit determination models and methods are established. A promising general technique for improving the orbit determination accuracy of high drag orbits, estimation of random drag variations at perigee passages, is investigated. This technique improved the fit to the tracking data by a factor of five and improved the solution overlap consistency by a factor of two during a period in which the spacecraft perigee altitude was below 200 kilometers. The results of the DE-2 orbit predictions showed that improvement in short term prediction accuracy reduces to the problem of predicting future drag scale factors: the smoothness of the solar 10.7 centimeter flux density suggests that this may be feasible.

Smith, R. L.; Nakai, Y.; Doll, C. E.

1983-01-01

268

Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar population parameters  

E-print Network

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the Atlas3D project. We study trends between our dynamically-derived IMF normalisation and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population- (SSP-) equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [alpha/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalisation of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of normalisation at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak IMF-[alpha/Fe] and IMF-age correlations, and no significant IMF-[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalisation via low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectra...

McDermid, Richard M; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frederic; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F; Davies, Roger L; Davis, Timothy A; de Zeeuw, P T; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnovic, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M

2014-01-01

269

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

1986-01-01

270

Dynamic changes in fetal Leydig cell populations influence adult Leydig cell populations in mice  

PubMed Central

Testes contain two distinct Leydig cell populations during development: fetal and adult Leydig cells (FLCs and ALCs, respectively). ALCs are not derived from FLCs, and it is unknown whether these two populations share common progenitors. We discovered that hedgehog (Hh) signaling is responsible for transforming steroidogenic factor 1-positive (SF1+) progenitors into FLCs. However, not all SF1+ progenitors become FLCs, and some remain undifferentiated through fetal development. We therefore hypothesized that if FLCs and ALCs share SF1+ progenitors, increased Hh pathway activation in SF1+ progenitor cells could change the dynamics and distribution of SF1+ progenitors, FLCs, and ALCs. Using a genetic model involving constitutive activation of Hh pathway in SF1+ cells, we observed reduced numbers of SF1+ progenitor cells and increased FLCs. Conversely, increased Hh activation led to decreased ALC populations prepubertally, while adult ALC numbers were comparable to control testes. Hence, reduction in SF1+ progenitors temporarily affects ALC numbers, suggesting that SF1+ progenitors in fetal testes are a potential source of both FLCs and ALCs. Besides transient ALC defects, adult animals with Hh activation in SF1+ progenitors had reduced testicular weight, oligospermia, and decreased sperm mobility. These defects highlight the importance of properly regulated Hh signaling in Leydig cell development and testicular functions.—Barsoum, I. B., Kaur, J. Ge, R. S., Cooke, P. S., Yao, H. H.-C. Dynamic changes in fetal Leydig cell populations influence adult Leydig cell populations in mice. PMID:23568777

Barsoum, Ivraym B.; Kaur, Jaspreet; Ge, Renshan S.; Cooke, Paul S.; Yao, Humphrey Hung-Chang

2013-01-01

271

Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics  

E-print Network

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

Eric Forgoston; Leah B. Shaw; Ira B. Schwartz

2014-10-30

272

Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

Coffman, C. J.; Nichols, J. D.; Pollock, K. H.

2001-01-01

273

Using Synchronization for Prediction of High-Dimensional Chaotic Dynamics  

E-print Network

We experimentally observe the nonlinear dynamics of an optoelectronic time-delayed feedback loop designed for chaotic communication using commercial fiber optic links, and we simulate the system using delay differential equations. We show that synchronization of a numerical model to experimental measurements provides a new way to assimilate data and forecast the future of this time-delayed high-dimensional system. For this system, which has a feedback time delay of 22 ns, we show that one can predict the time series for up to several delay periods, when the dynamics is about 15 dimensional.

Adam B. Cohen; Bhargava Ravoori; Thomas E. Murphy; Rajarshi Roy

2008-09-22

274

Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

2002-01-01

275

Predator effects on prey population dynamics in open systems.  

PubMed

Animal population dynamics in open systems are affected not only by agents of mortality and the influence of species interactions on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss rates of two mayfly species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience different abiotic conditions during larval development. Our goals were to generate hypotheses relating predation to variation in prey population dynamics and to evaluate alternative mechanisms to explain such variation. While neither loss rates nor abundance of the species that develops during snowmelt (Baetis bicaudatus) varied systematically with fish, loss rates of the species that develops during baseflow (Baetis B) were higher in streams containing brook trout than streams without fish; and surprisingly, larvae of this species were most abundant in trout streams. This counter-intuitive pattern could not be explained by a trophic cascade, because densities of intermediate predators (stoneflies) did not differ between fish and fishless streams and predation by trout on stoneflies was negligible. A statistical model estimated that higher recruitment and accelerated development enables Baetis B to maintain larger populations in trout streams despite higher mortality from predation. Experimental estimates suggested that predation by trout potentially accounts for natural losses of Baetis B, but not Baetis bicaudatus. Predation by stoneflies on Baetis is negligible in fish streams, but could make an important contribution to observed losses of both species in fishless streams. Non-predatory sources of loss were higher for B. bicaudatus in trout streams, and for Baetis B in fishless streams. We conclude that predation alone cannot explain variation in population dynamics of either species; and the relative importance of predation is species- and environment-specific compared to non-predatory losses, such as other agents of mortality and non-consumptive effects of predators. PMID:18322706

Peckarsky, Barbara L; Kerans, Billie L; Taylor, Brad W; McIntosh, Angus R

2008-05-01

276

Fish farms, parasites, and predators: implications for salmon population dynamics.  

PubMed

For some salmon populations, the individual and population effects of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) transmission from sea cage salmon farms is probably mediated by predation, which is a primary natural source of mortality of juvenile salmon. We examined how sea lice infestation affects predation risk and mortality of juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon, and developed a mathematical model to assess the implications for population dynamics and conservation. A risk-taking experiment indicated that infected juvenile pink salmon accept a higher predation risk in order to obtain foraging opportunities. In a schooling experiment with juvenile chum salmon, infected individuals had increased nearest-neighbor distances and occupied peripheral positions in the school. Prey selection experiments with cutthroat trout (O. clarkii) predators indicated that infection reduces the ability of juvenile pink salmon to evade a predatory strike. Group predation experiments with coho salmon (O. kisutch) feeding on juvenile pink or chum salmon indicated that predators selectively consume infected prey. The experimental results indicate that lice may increase the rate of prey capture but not the handling time of a predator. Based on this result, we developed a mathematical model of sea lice and salmon population dynamics in which parasitism affects the attack rate in a type II functional response. Analysis of the model indicates that: (1) the estimated mortality of wild juvenile salmon due to sea lice infestation is probably higher than previously thought; (2) predation can cause a simultaneous decline in sea louse abundance on wild fish and salmon productivity that could mislead managers and regulators; and (3) compensatory mortality occurs in the saturation region of the type II functional response where prey are abundant because predators increase mortality of parasites but not overall predation rates. These findings indicate that predation is an important component of salmon-louse dynamics and has implications for estimating mortality, reducing infection, and developing conservation policy. PMID:21639053

Krkosek, Martin; Connors, Brendan M; Ford, Helen; Peacock, Stephanie; Mages, Paul; Ford, Jennifer S; Morton, Alexandra; Volpe, John P; Hilborn, Ray; Dill, Lawrence M; Lewis, Mark A

2011-04-01

277

Dynamic modeling of vehicle populations: An engineering approach for emissions calculations  

SciTech Connect

A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estimates of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total traffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technology substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more refined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed information is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can implement it reasonably well. 17 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

Zachariadis, T.; Samaras, Z. [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece)] [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece); Zierock, K.H. [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)] [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)

1995-10-01

278

Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics  

PubMed Central

Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

279

Dispersal differences predict population genetic structure in Mormon crickets  

Microsoft Academic Search

Research investigating the geographical context of speciation has primarily focused on abiotic factors such as the role of Pleistocene glacial cycles, or geotectonic events. Few study systems allow a direct comparison of how biological differences, such as dispersal beha- viour, affect population genetic structure of organisms that were subdivided during the Pleistocene. Mormon crickets exist in solitary and gregarious 'phases',

NATHAN W. B AILEY; DARRYL T. G WYNNE; MICHAEL G. R ITCHIE

2007-01-01

280

Population dynamics in Digitalis purpurea: the interaction of disturbance and seed bank dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary 1. Plant ecologists have long since realized that the persistence of many facultative biennial plants depends upon disturbance. However, we still have a limited knowledge of the population-level effects of disturbance, and the connection between adult and seed bank dynamics. 2. Using data from a 3-year demographic study combined with experimental gap-opening in a large population of Digitalis purpurea

NINA SLETVOLD; KNUT RYDGREN

2007-01-01

281

Population Physiology: Leveraging Electronic Health Record Data to Understand Human Endocrine Dynamics  

PubMed Central

Studying physiology and pathophysiology over a broad population for long periods of time is difficult primarily because collecting human physiologic data can be intrusive, dangerous, and expensive. One solution is to use data that have been collected for a different purpose. Electronic health record (EHR) data promise to support the development and testing of mechanistic physiologic models on diverse populations and allow correlation with clinical outcomes, but limitations in the data have thus far thwarted such use. For example, using uncontrolled population-scale EHR data to verify the outcome of time dependent behavior of mechanistic, constructive models can be difficult because: (i) aggregation of the population can obscure or generate a signal, (ii) there is often no control population with a well understood health state, and (iii) diversity in how the population is measured can make the data difficult to fit into conventional analysis techniques. This paper shows that it is possible to use EHR data to test a physiological model for a population and over long time scales. Specifically, a methodology is developed and demonstrated for testing a mechanistic, time-dependent, physiological model of serum glucose dynamics with uncontrolled, population-scale, physiological patient data extracted from an EHR repository. It is shown that there is no observable daily variation the normalized mean glucose for any EHR subpopulations. In contrast, a derived value, daily variation in nonlinear correlation quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI), did reveal the intuitively expected diurnal variation in glucose levels amongst a random population of humans. Moreover, in a population of continuously (tube) fed patients, there was no observable TDMI-based diurnal signal. These TDMI-based signals, via a glucose insulin model, were then connected with human feeding patterns. In particular, a constructive physiological model was shown to correctly predict the difference between the general uncontrolled population and a subpopulation whose feeding was controlled. PMID:23272040

Albers, D. J.; Hripcsak, George; Schmidt, Michael

2012-01-01

282

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland  

PubMed Central

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

2012-01-01

283

Predicting Speech Intelligibility from a Population of Neurons  

Microsoft Academic Search

A major issue in evaluating speech enhancement and hearing compensation algorithms is to come up with a suitable metric that predicts intelligibility as judged by a human listener. Previous methods such as the widely used Speech Transmission Index (STI) fail to account for masking effects that arise from the highly nonlinear cochlear transfer function. We therefore propose a Neural Articulation

Jeff Bondy; Ian C. Bruce; Suzanna Becker; Simon Haykin

2003-01-01

284

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.  

PubMed Central

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

285

Two-Speed Gearbox Dynamic Simulation Predictions and Test Validation  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dynamic simulations and experimental validation tests were performed on a two-stage, two-speed gearbox as part of the drive system research activities of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Subsonics Rotary Wing Project. The gearbox was driven by two electromagnetic motors and had two electromagnetic, multi-disk clutches to control output speed. A dynamic model of the system was created which included a direct current electric motor with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) speed control, a two-speed gearbox with dual electromagnetically actuated clutches, and an eddy current dynamometer. A six degree-of-freedom model of the gearbox accounted for the system torsional dynamics and included gear, clutch, shaft, and load inertias as well as shaft flexibilities and a dry clutch stick-slip friction model. Experimental validation tests were performed on the gearbox in the NASA Glenn gear noise test facility. Gearbox output speed and torque as well as drive motor speed and current were compared to those from the analytical predictions. The experiments correlate very well with the predictions, thus validating the dynamic simulation methodologies.

Lewicki, David G.; DeSmidt, Hans; Smith, Edward C.; Bauman, Steven W.

2010-01-01

286

Predicting and understanding forest dynamics using a simple tractable model  

PubMed Central

The perfect-plasticity approximation (PPA) is an analytically tractable model of forest dynamics, defined in terms of parameters for individual trees, including allometry, growth, and mortality. We estimated these parameters for the eight most common species on each of four soil types in the US Lake states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) by using short-term (?15-year) inventory data from individual trees. We implemented 100-year PPA simulations given these parameters and compared these predictions to chronosequences of stand development. Predictions for the timing and magnitude of basal area dynamics and ecological succession on each soil were accurate, and predictions for the diameter distribution of 100-year-old stands were correct in form and slope. For a given species, the PPA provides analytical metrics for early-successional performance (H20, height of a 20-year-old open-grown tree) and late-successional performance (?*, equilibrium canopy height in monoculture). These metrics predicted which species were early or late successional on each soil type. Decomposing ?* showed that (i) succession is driven both by superior understory performance and superior canopy performance of late-successional species, and (ii) performance differences primarily reflect differences in mortality rather than growth. The predicted late-successional dominants matched chronosequences on xeromesic (Quercus rubra) and mesic (codominance by Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum) soil. On hydromesic and hydric soils, the literature reports that the current dominant species in old stands (Thuja occidentalis) is now failing to regenerate. Consistent with this, the PPA predicted that, on these soils, stands are now succeeding to dominance by other late-successional species (e.g., Fraxinus nigra, A. rubrum). PMID:18971335

Purves, Drew W.; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Strigul, Nikolay; Pacala, Stephen W.

2008-01-01

287

Modelling climate-related variability of tuna populations from a coupled ocean-biogeochemical-populations dynamics model  

E-print Network

fields from a 3D coupled physical-biogechemical model. The hypothesis that the spatial dynamics of Marine Science, University of Maine, 5471 Libby Hall, Orono, Maine 04469-5741, USA (fchai populations, a spatial environmental population dynamic model (SEPODYM) has been developed (Bertignac et al

Maine, University of

288

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics  

PubMed Central

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

2013-01-01

289

Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the

Yngvild Vindenes; Bernt-Erik Sæther; Steinar Engen

290

Cougar Exploitation Levels in Utah: Implications for Demographic Structure, Population Recovery, and Metapopulation Dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Currently, 11 western states and 2 Canadian provinces use sport hunting as the primary mechanism for managing cougar (Puma concolor) populations. Yet the impacts of sustained harvest on cougar population dynamics and demographic structure are not well understood. We evaluated the effects of hunting on cougar populations by comparing the dynamics and demographic composition of 2 populations exposed to different

DAVID C. STONER; MICHAEL L. WOLFE; DAVID M. CHOATE

2006-01-01

291

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia  

PubMed Central

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n?=?24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n?=?21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (FST ?=?0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI ?=?1.38) and KK (mean MOI ?=?1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (HE ?=?0.583 in KM and HE ?=?0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (IAS >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (IAS ?=?0.07 [P?=?0.0076] in KM, and IAS?=?-0.003 [P?=?0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

292

Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication  

PubMed Central

A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behaviors using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behaviors at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. PMID:21681967

Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

2013-01-01

293

New methods for inferring population dynamics from microbial sequences  

PubMed Central

The reduced cost of high throughput sequencing, increasing automation, and the amenability of sequence data for evolutionary analysis are making DNA data (or the corresponding amino acid sequences) the molecular marker of choice for studying microbial population genetics and phylogenetics. Concomitantly, due to the ever-increasing computational power, new, more accurate (and sometimes faster), sequence-based analytical approaches are being developed and applied to these new data. Here we review some commonly used, recently improved, and newly developed methodologies for inferring population dynamics and evolutionary relationships using nucleotide and amino acid sequence data, including: alignment, model selection, bifurcating and network phylogenetic approaches, and methods for estimating demographic history, population structure, and population parameters (recombination, genetic diversity, growth, and natural selection). Because of the extensive literature published on these topics this review cannot be comprehensive in its scope. Instead, for all the methods discussed we introduce the approaches we think are particularly useful for analyses of microbial sequences and where possible, include references to recent and more inclusive reviews. PMID:16627010

Perez-Losada, Marcos; Porter, Megan L.; Tazi, Loubna; Crandall, Keith A.

2007-01-01

294

Population receptive field dynamics in human visual cortex.  

PubMed

Seminal work in the early nineties revealed that the visual receptive field of neurons in cat primary visual cortex can change in location and size when artificial scotomas are applied. Recent work now suggests that these single neuron receptive field dynamics also pertain to the neuronal population receptive field (pRF) that can be measured in humans with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). To examine this further, we estimated the pRF in twelve healthy participants while masking the central portion of the visual field. We found that the pRF changes in location and size for two differently sized artificial scotomas, and that these pRF dynamics are most likely due to a combination of the neuronal receptive field position and size scatter as well as modulatory feedback signals from extrastriate visual areas. PMID:22649551

Haak, Koen V; Cornelissen, Frans W; Morland, Antony B

2012-01-01

295

Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.  

PubMed

Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for ?, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for ? = 0.1, to 1.03 for ? = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when ? ? 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with ?, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of ?. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction. PMID:23844183

Loughry, William J; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M; Oli, Madan K

2013-01-01

296

Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine-Banded Armadillos  

PubMed Central

Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992–2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for ?, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for ??=?0.1, to 1.03 for ??=?1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when ? ?0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with ?, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of ?. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction. PMID:23844183

Loughry, William J.; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M.; Oli, Madan K.

2013-01-01

297

Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

2012-10-01

298

Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics  

PubMed Central

Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics. PMID:17148385

Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

2006-01-01

299

Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

Cáceres, Manuel O.

2014-08-01

300

Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics.  

PubMed

This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model. PMID:25215718

Cáceres, Manuel O

2014-08-01

301

Rhythmic Manipulation of Objects with Complex Dynamics: Predictability over Chaos  

PubMed Central

The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J.; Sternad, Dagmar

2014-01-01

302

Rhythmic Manipulation of Objects with Complex Dynamics: Predictability over Chaos.  

PubMed

The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J; Sternad, Dagmar

2014-10-01

303

Evolution of the Known Centaurs Population - Dynamical and Thermal Pathways  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The structural and thermal evolution of small Solar system bodies may be strongly dependent on their dynamical history and environment. Objects on planet-crossing orbits are prone to gravitational perturbations that de-stabilize their orbits. Such are the Centaurs, which are the transient population, between the relatively stable trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and the short-lived Jupiter family Comets (JFCs). This may indicate that these objects experience intermediate levels of internal processing, at different periods of their lives. Examining the evolution of several these Centaur objects, both in orbital and physical parameters, can help categorize the different states and origin and evolution scenarios in the outer Solar system. Determining the dynamical evolution of each object is achieved through statistical analysis of the results of multiple N-body integrations. This is achieved by using many clones of specific objects, with known orbital elements. Statistics of large clone samples of specific objects yield valuable information about their current states and future fates. Specifically, and with greater importance to thermal evolution, we focus on the dynamical lifetimes, survivability and mean orbital elements. The latter are considered during the relatively stable and non-diffusive phase of orbital evolution. Profiles of temperature, structure and composition are calculated utilizing our robust thermal evolution code several specific objects, which represent slightly varying dynamical groups, and for different orbits of the same object, which represent specific orbital evolution pathways. This has an influence on the internal stratified structure, through an adapting thermal response of the nucleus.

Sarid, Gal

2010-10-01

304

Exploring iris colour prediction and ancestry inference in admixed populations of South America.  

PubMed

New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples. PMID:25051225

Freire-Aradas, A; Ruiz, Y; Phillips, C; Maroñas, O; Söchtig, J; Tato, A Gómez; Dios, J Álvarez; de Cal, M Casares; Silbiger, V N; Luchessi, A D; Luchessi, A D; Chiurillo, M A; Carracedo, A; Lareu, M V

2014-11-01

305

Clone dynamics, population dynamics and vegetation pattern of Glaux maritima on a Baltic sea shore meadow  

Microsoft Academic Search

The vegetative propagation ofGlaux maritima is correlated with growth habit which is inturn related to the light environment. Plant form and vegetative behaviour were recorded 1980–1984 and an attempt to correlate this to population dynamics and vegetation development was made.

L. Jerling

1988-01-01

306

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics  

SciTech Connect

The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

Schmieder, R.W.

1995-07-01

307

Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Using Framingham, ASSIGN and QRISK2: How Well Do They Predict Individual Rather than Population Risk?  

PubMed Central

Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. Methods and findings This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (?20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. Conclusions Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk. PMID:25271417

van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter; Gulliford, Martin; Ng, Edmond S.-W.; Goldacre, Ben; Smeeth, Liam

2014-01-01

308

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge  

SciTech Connect

The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

Schmieder, R.W.

1995-07-01

309

Theoretical Population Biology 69 (2006) 263281 Surprising evolutionary predictions from enhanced ecological realism  

E-print Network

Theoretical Population Biology 69 (2006) 263­281 Surprising evolutionary predictions from enhanced Biology, Institute of Biology, Leiden University, Kaiserstraat 63, NL-2311 GP Leiden, The Netherlands points; Evolutionary suicide; Evolutionary epidemiology; Optimization principles; Deviations from Hardy

Dieckmann, Ulf

310

Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass-shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995-2000.  

PubMed

We followed seasonal and year-to-year population dynamics for a diverse rodent assemblage in a short-grass prairie ecosystem in southeastern Colorado (USA) for 6 yr. We captured 2,798 individual rodents (range, one to 812 individuals per species) belonging to 19 species. The two most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis), generally had population peaks in winter and nadirs in summer; several other murid species demonstrated autumn peaks and spring nadirs; heteromyids were infrequently captured in winter, and populations generally peaked in summer or autumn. Inter-annual trends indicated an interactive effect between temperature and precipitation. Conditions associated with low rodent populations or population declines were high precipitation during cold periods (autumn and winter) and low precipitation during warm periods (spring and summer). Severity of adverse effects varied by species. Heteromyids, for example, were apparently not negatively affected by the hot, dry spring and summer of 2000. Cross-correlations for the temporal series of relative population abundances between species pairs (which are affected by both seasonal and interannual population dynamics) revealed positive associations among most murids and among most heteromyids, but there were negative associations between murids and heteromyids. These results have important implications for those attempting to model population dynamics of rodent populations for purposes of predicting disease risk. PMID:15827207

Calisher, Charles H; Mills, James N; Sweeney, William P; Root, J Jeffrey; Reeder, Serena A; Jentes, Emily S; Wagoner, Kent; Beaty, Barry J

2005-01-01

311

Connectionist Architectures for Time Series Prediction of Dynamical Systems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigate the effectiveness of connectionist networks for predicting the future continuation of temporal sequences. The problem of overfitting, particularly serious for short records of noisy data, is addressed by the method of weight-elimination: a term penalizing network complexity is added to the usual cost function in back-propagation. We describe the dynamics of the procedure and clarify the meaning of the parameters involved. From a Bayesian perspective, the complexity term can be usefully interpreted as an assumption about prior distribution of the weights. We analyze three time series. On the benchmark sunspot series, the networks outperform traditional statistical approaches. We show that the network performance does not deteriorate when there are more input units than needed. In the second example, the notoriously noisy foreign exchange rates series, we pick one weekday and one currency (DM vs. US). Given exchange rate information up to and including a Monday, the task is to predict the rate for the following Tuesday. Weight-elimination manages to extract a significant part of the dynamics and makes the solution interpretable. In the third example, the networks predict the resource utilization of a chaotic computational ecosystem for hundreds of steps forward in time.

Weigend, Andreas Sebastian

312

The Dynamics of Genetic Draft in Rapidly Adapting Populations  

PubMed Central

The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of “genetic draft” affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie’s original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald–Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation. PMID:24002646

Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M.

2013-01-01

313

Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.  

PubMed

Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

2011-07-01

314

Predicting Cytotoxic T-cell Age from Multivariate Analysis of Static and Dynamic Biomarkers*  

PubMed Central

Adoptive T-cell transfer therapy relies upon in vitro expansion of autologous cytotoxic T cells that are capable of tumor recognition. The success of this cell-based therapy depends on the specificity and responsiveness of the T cell clones before transfer. During ex vivo expansion, CD8+ T cells present signs of replicative senescence and loss of function. The transfer of nonresponsive senescent T cells is a major bottleneck for the success of adoptive T-cell transfer therapy. Quantitative methods for assessing cellular age and responsiveness will facilitate the development of appropriate cell expansion and selection protocols. Although several biomarkers of lymphocyte senescence have been identified, these proteins in isolation are not sufficient to determine the age-dependent responsiveness of T cells. We have developed a multivariate model capable of extracting combinations of markers that are the most informative to predict cellular age. To acquire signaling information with high temporal resolution, we designed a microfluidic chip enabling parallel lysis and fixation of stimulated cell samples on-chip. The acquisition of 25 static biomarkers and 48 dynamic signaling measurements at different days in culture, integrating single-cell and population based information, allowed the multivariate regression model to accurately predict CD8+ T-cell age. From surface marker expression and early phosphorylation events following T-cell receptor stimulation, the model successfully predicts days in culture and number of population doublings with R2 = 0.91 and 0.98, respectively. Furthermore, we found that impairment of early signaling events following T cell receptor stimulation because of long term culture allows prediction of costimulatory molecules CD28 and CD27 expression levels and the number of population divisions in culture from a limited subset of signaling proteins. The multivariate analysis highlights the information content of both averaged biomarker values and heterogeneity metrics for prediction of cellular age within a T cell population. PMID:21193537

Rivet, Catherine A.; Hill, Abby S.; Lu, Hang; Kemp, Melissa L.

2011-01-01

315

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

316

Inferring Network Dynamics and Neuron Properties from Population Recordings  

PubMed Central

Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to “identify” its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input–output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices. PMID:22016731

Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

2011-01-01

317

Predicted equations for ventilatory function among Kuching (Sarawak, Malaysia) population.  

PubMed

Spirometry data of 869 individuals (males and females) between the ages of 10 to 60 years were analyzed. The analysis yielded the following conclusions: 1. The pattern of Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) and Forced Expiratory Volume in One Second (FEV1) for the selected subgroups seems to be gender dependant: in males, the highest values were seen in the Chinese, followed by the Malay, and then the Dayak; in females, the highest values were seen in the Chinese, followed by the Dayak, and then the Malay. 2. Smoking that did not produce respiratory symptom was not associated with a decline in lung function, in fact we noted higher values in smokers as compared to nonsmokers. 3. Prediction formulae (54 in total) are worked out for FVC & FEV1 for the respective gender and each of the selected subgroups. PMID:20954550

Djojodibroto, R D; Pratibha, G; Kamaluddin, B; Manjit, S S; Sumitabha, G; Kumar, A Deva; Hashami, B

2009-12-01

318

A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics.  

PubMed

Weather drives population dynamics directly, through effects on vital rates, or indirectly, through effects on the population's competitors, predators or prey and thence on vital rates. Indirect effects may include non-additive interactions with density dependence. Detection of climate drivers is critical to predicting climate change effects, but identification of potential drivers may depend on knowing the underlying mechanisms. For the butterfly Speyeria mormonia, one climate driver, snow melt date, has multiple effects on population growth. Snow melt date in year t has density-dependent indirect effects. Through frost effects, early snow melt decreases floral resources, thence per-capita nectar availability, which determines fecundity in the lab. Snow melt date in year t?+?1 has density-independent direct effects. These effects explain 84% of the variation in population growth rate. One climate parameter thus has multiple effects on the dynamics of a species with non-overlapping generations, with one effect not detectable without understanding the underlying mechanism. PMID:22414183

Boggs, Carol L; Inouye, David W

2012-05-01

319

Population dynamics of sinking phytoplankton in light-limited environments: simulation techniques and critical parameters  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phytoplankton use light for photosynthesis, and the light flux decreases with depth. As a result of this simple light dependence, reaction-advection-diffusion models describing the dynamics of phytoplankton species contain an integral over depth. That is, models that simulate phytoplankton dynamics in relation to mixing processes generally have the form of an integro-partial differential equation (integro-PDE). Integro-PDEs are computationally more demanding than standard PDEs. Here, we outline a reliable and efficient technique for numerical simulation of integro-PDEs. The simulation technique is illustrated by several examples on the population dynamics of sinking phytoplankton, using both single-species models and competition models with several phytoplankton species. Our results confirm recent findings that Sverdrup's critical-depth theory breaks down if turbulent mixing is reduced below a critical turbulence. In fact, our results show that suitable conditions for bloom development of sinking phytoplankton depend on a number of critical parameters, including a minimal depth of the thermocline, a maximal depth of the thermocline, a minimal turbulence, and a maximal turbulence. We therefore conclude that models that do not carefully consider the population dynamics of phytoplankton in relation to the turbulence structure of the water column may easily lead to erroneous predictions.

Huisman, Jef; Sommeijer, Ben

2002-10-01

320

Modified Newtonian dynamics as a prediction of general relativity  

E-print Network

We treat the physical vacuum as a featureless relativistic continuum in motion, and explore its consequences. Proceeding in a step-by-step manner, we are able to show that the equations of classical electrodynamics follow from the motion of a space-filling fluid of neutral spinors which we identify with neutrinos. The model predicts that antimatter has negative mass, and that neutrinos are matter-antimatter dipoles. Together these suffice to explain the presence of modified Newtonian dynamics as a gravitational polarisation effect. The existence of antigravity could resolve other major outstanding issues in cosmology, including the rate of expansion of the universe and its flatness, the origin of gamma ray bursts, and the smallness of the cosmological constant. If our model is correct then all of these observations are non-trivial predictions of Einstein's general theory of relativity.

Rahman, S

2006-01-01

321

Local predictability and information flow in complex dynamical systems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Predictability is by observation a local notion in complex dynamical systems. Its spatiotemporal structure implies a flow, or transfer in discrete cases, of information that redistributes the local predictability within the state space of concern. Information flow is a fundamental concept in general physics which has applications in a wide variety of disciplines such as neuroscience, material science, atmosphere-ocean science, and turbulence research, to name but a few. In this study, it is rigorously formulated with respect to relative entropy within the framework of a system with many components, each signifying a location or a structure. Given a component, the mechanism governing the evolution of its predictability can be classified into two groups, one due to the component itself, another due to a transfer of information from its peers. A measure of the transfer is rigorously derived, and an explicit expression obtained. This measure possesses a form reminiscent of that we have obtained before with respect to absolute entropy in [X.S. Liang and R. Kleeman, A rigorous formalism of information transfer between dynamical system components, Physica D 227 (2007) 173-182]; in particular, when the system is of dimensionality 2, there is no difference between the formalisms with respect to absolute entropy and relative entropy, except for a minus sign. Properties have been explored and discussed; particularly discussed is the property of asymmetry or causality, which states that information transfer from one component to another carries no hint about the transfer in the other direction, in contrast to the transfer of other quantities such as energy. This formalism has been applied to the study of the scale-scale interaction and information transfer between the first two modes of the truncated Burgers equation. It is found that all 12 transfers are essentially zero or negligible, save for a strong transfer between the sine components from the low-frequency mode to the high-frequency mode. That is to say, the predictability of the high-frequency mode is controlled by the knowledge of the low-frequency mode. This result, though from a highly idealized system, has interesting implications about the dynamical closure problem in turbulence research and atmosphere-ocean science, i.e., the subgrid processes may to some extent be parameterized by the large-scale dynamics. This study can be adopted to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in fluid flows, which has important applications in problems such as atmospheric observing platform design, and may be utilized to identify the route of information flowing within a complex network.

Liang, X. San

2013-04-01

322

The spatial population dynamics of insects exploiting a patchy food resource  

Microsoft Academic Search

The population dynamics of insects in a spatially fragmented environment were studied by examining three main aspects of their ecology, namely, rates of local population extinction, density dependence in population change, and movements between populations. Ten phytophagous insects and seven parasitoids inhabiting the flowerheads of two herbaceous plants, Centaurea nigra and Arctium minus, were studied by monitoring their populations on

J. P. Dempster; D. A. Atkinson; O. D. Cheesman

1995-01-01

323

Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.  

PubMed

Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

2014-01-01

324

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations.  

PubMed

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

325

Transcriptome dynamics-based operon prediction in prokaryotes  

PubMed Central

Background Inferring operon maps is crucial to understanding the regulatory networks of prokaryotic genomes. Recently, RNA-seq based transcriptome studies revealed that in many bacterial species the operon structure vary with the change of environmental conditions. Therefore, new computational solutions that use both static and dynamic data are necessary to create condition specific operon predictions. Results In this work, we propose a novel classification method that integrates RNA-seq based transcriptome profiles with genomic sequence features to accurately identify the operons that are expressed under a measured condition. The classifiers are trained on a small set of confirmed operons and then used to classify the remaining gene pairs of the organism studied. Finally, by linking consecutive gene pairs classified as operons, our computational approach produces condition-dependent operon maps. We evaluated our approach on various RNA-seq expression profiles of the bacteria Haemophilus somni, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica. Our results demonstrate that, using features depending on both transcriptome dynamics and genome sequence characteristics, we can identify operon pairs with high accuracy. Moreover, the combination of DNA sequence and expression data results in more accurate predictions than each one alone. Conclusion We present a computational strategy for the comprehensive analysis of condition-dependent operon maps in prokaryotes. Our method can be used to generate condition specific operon maps of many bacterial organisms for which high-resolution transcriptome data is available. PMID:24884724

2014-01-01

326

Using GRASS and Spatial Explicit Population dynamics Modelling as a conservation tool to manage grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in northern Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

A recently discovered population of the North American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinen- sis), introduced to Ticino Park, Lombardy (N Italy), is likely to spread into continuous prealpine broadleaf forests of Lombardy and the south of Switzerland. We used GRASS GIS and Spatially Explicit Population Dynamics Models as a conservation tool to predict the spread of grey squirrels and to test

Clara Tattoni; Damiano G. Preatoni; Peter W. W. Lurz; Steven P. Rushton; Guido Tosi; Sandro Bertolino; Lucas A. Wauters

2004-01-01

327

Population Dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a Decision Model for Sugar Beet Planting  

PubMed Central

A series of experiments were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initial infestation densities of both D. oviparasitica and H. schachtii. In general, higher initial population densities of D. oviparasitica were associated with lower final population densities of H. schachtii. Regression models showed that the initial densities of D. oviparasitica were only significant when predicting the final densities of H. schachtii J2 and eggs as well as fungal egg parasitism, while the initial densities of J2 were significant for all final H. schachtii population density measurements. We also showed that the densities of H. schachtii-associated D. oviparasitica fluctuate greatly, with rRNA gene numbers going from zero in most field-soil-collected cysts to an average of 4.24 x 108 in mature females isolated directly from root surfaces. Finally, phylogenetic analysis of rRNA genes suggested that D. oviparasitica belongs to a clade of nematophagous fungi that includes Arkansas Fungus strain L (ARF-L) and that these fungi are widely distributed. We anticipate that these findings will provide foundational data facilitating the development of more effective decision models for sugar beet planting. PMID:23481664

Yang, Jiue-in; Benecke, Scott; Jeske, Daniel R.; Rocha, Fernando S.; Smith Becker, Jennifer; Timper, Patricia; Ole Becker, J.

2012-01-01

328

Population Dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a Decision Model for Sugar Beet Planting.  

PubMed

A series of experiments were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initial infestation densities of both D. oviparasitica and H. schachtii. In general, higher initial population densities of D. oviparasitica were associated with lower final population densities of H. schachtii. Regression models showed that the initial densities of D. oviparasitica were only significant when predicting the final densities of H. schachtii J2 and eggs as well as fungal egg parasitism, while the initial densities of J2 were significant for all final H. schachtii population density measurements. We also showed that the densities of H. schachtii-associated D. oviparasitica fluctuate greatly, with rRNA gene numbers going from zero in most field-soil-collected cysts to an average of 4.24 x 10(8) in mature females isolated directly from root surfaces. Finally, phylogenetic analysis of rRNA genes suggested that D. oviparasitica belongs to a clade of nematophagous fungi that includes Arkansas Fungus strain L (ARF-L) and that these fungi are widely distributed. We anticipate that these findings will provide foundational data facilitating the development of more effective decision models for sugar beet planting. PMID:23481664

Yang, Jiue-In; Benecke, Scott; Jeske, Daniel R; Rocha, Fernando S; Smith Becker, Jennifer; Timper, Patricia; Ole Becker, J; Borneman, James

2012-09-01

329

Dynamics of population response to changes of motion direction in primary visual cortex  

PubMed Central

The visual system is thought to represent the direction of moving objects in the relative activity of large populations of cortical neurons that are broadly tuned to the direction of stimulus motion; but how changes in the direction of a moving stimulus are represented in the population response remains poorly understood. Here we take advantage of the orderly mapping of direction selectivity in ferret primary visual cortex (V1) to explore how abrupt changes in the direction of a moving stimulus are encoded in population activity using voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) imaging. For stimuli moving in a constant direction, the peak of the V1 population response accurately represented the direction of stimulus motion; but following abrupt changes in motion direction, the peak transiently departed from the direction of stimulus motion in a fashion that varied with the direction offset angle and was well predicted from the response to the component directions. We conclude that cortical dynamics and population coding mechanisms combine to place constraints on the accuracy with which abrupt changes in direction of motion can be represented by cortical circuits. PMID:21900556

Wu, Wei; Tiesinga, Paul H.; Tucker, Thomas R.; Mitroff, Stephen R.; Fitzpatrick, David

2011-01-01

330

The Population Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems  

E-print Network

The Population Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems Martin R. Miller1 *, Andrew White2 , Kenneth Wilson3 , Michael Boots1 1 Department of Animal and Plant of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established `two

White, Andrew

331

The dynamics of an infectious disease in a population with birth pulses  

Microsoft Academic Search

In most models of population dynamics increases in population due to births are assumed to be time-independent, but many species of wild animal give birth only during a single period of the year. We propose a model for the dynamics of a fatal infectious disease in a wild animal population for which births occur in a single pulse once per

M. G. Roberts; R. R. Kao

1998-01-01

332

Richards-like two species population dynamics model.  

PubMed

The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2014-12-01

333

Urban aerosols harbor diverse and dynamic bacterial populations  

PubMed Central

Considering the importance of its potential implications for human health, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability, surprisingly little is known regarding the composition or dynamics of the atmosphere's microbial inhabitants. Using a custom high-density DNA microarray, we detected and monitored bacterial populations in two U.S. cities over 17 weeks. These urban aerosols contained at least 1,800 diverse bacterial types, a richness approaching that of some soil bacterial communities. We also reveal the consistent presence of bacterial families with pathogenic members including environmental relatives of select agents of bioterrorism significance. Finally, using multivariate regression techniques, we demonstrate that temporal and meteorological influences can be stronger factors than location in shaping the biological composition of the air we breathe. PMID:17182744

Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Parker, Jordan P. Moberg; Zubietta, Ingrid X.; Piceno, Yvette M.; Andersen, Gary L.

2007-01-01

334

Emergence of Drug-Resistant Influenza Virus: Population Dynamical Considerations  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Access to the article is free, however registration and sign-in are required: Given the considerable challenges to the rapid development of an effective vaccine against influenza, antiviral agents will play an important role as a first-line defense if a new pandemic occurs. The large-scale use of drugs for chemoprophylaxis and treatment will impose strong selection for the evolution of drug-resistant strains. The ensuing transmission of those strains could substantially limit the effectiveness of the drugs as a first-line defense. Summarizing recent data on the rate at which the treatment of influenza infection generates resistance de novo and on the transmission fitness of resistant virus, we discuss possible implications for the epidemiological spread of drug resistance in the context of an established population dynamic model.

Roland R. Regoes (Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich;); Sebastian Bonhoeffer (Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich;)

2006-04-21

335

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics.  

PubMed

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M

2014-06-01

336

An approach to predict risks to wildlife populations from mercury and other stressors.  

PubMed

Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (U.S. EPA NHEERL) is working cooperatively with environmental and conservation organizations to develop models to predict CH3Hg effects on populations of the common loon, Gavia immer. Specifically, a biologically-based toxicokinetic model is being used to extrapolate CH3Hg effects on the reproduction of a tested bird species, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), to the loon. Population models are being used to incorporate stressor effects on survival and reproduction into projections of loon population effects. Finally, habitat and spatially-explicit population models are being used to project results spatially, assess the relative importance of CH3Hg and non-chemical stressors, and produce testable predictions of the effects of biologically-available Hg on loon populations. This stepwise process provides an integrated approach to estimate the impact on wildlife populations of regulations that limit atmospherically-distributed Hg, and to develop risk-based population-level regulatory criteria. PMID:15931973

Nacci, Diane; Pelletier, Marguerite; Lake, Jim; Bennett, Rick; Nichols, John; Haebler, Romona; Grear, Jason; Kuhn, Anne; Copeland, Jane; Nicholson, Matthew; Walters, Steven; Munns, Wayne R

2005-03-01

337

Dynamic changes in fetal Leydig cell populations influence adult Leydig cell populations in mice.  

PubMed

Testes contain two distinct Leydig cell populations during development: fetal and adult Leydig cells (FLCs and ALCs, respectively). ALCs are not derived from FLCs, and it is unknown whether these two populations share common progenitors. We discovered that hedgehog (Hh) signaling is responsible for transforming steroidogenic factor 1-positive (SF1(+)) progenitors into FLCs. However, not all SF1(+) progenitors become FLCs, and some remain undifferentiated through fetal development. We therefore hypothesized that if FLCs and ALCs share SF1(+) progenitors, increased Hh pathway activation in SF1(+) progenitor cells could change the dynamics and distribution of SF1(+) progenitors, FLCs, and ALCs. Using a genetic model involving constitutive activation of Hh pathway in SF1(+) cells, we observed reduced numbers of SF1(+) progenitor cells and increased FLCs. Conversely, increased Hh activation led to decreased ALC populations prepubertally, while adult ALC numbers were comparable to control testes. Hence, reduction in SF1(+) progenitors temporarily affects ALC numbers, suggesting that SF1(+) progenitors in fetal testes are a potential source of both FLCs and ALCs. Besides transient ALC defects, adult animals with Hh activation in SF1(+) progenitors had reduced testicular weight, oligospermia, and decreased sperm mobility. These defects highlight the importance of properly regulated Hh signaling in Leydig cell development and testicular functions. PMID:23568777

Barsoum, Ivraym B; Kaur, Jaspreet; Ge, Renshan S; Cooke, Paul S; Yao, Humphrey Hung-Chang

2013-07-01

338

Bifurcation theory, adaptive dynamics and dynamic energy budget-structured populations of iteroparous species.  

PubMed

In this paper, we describe a technique to evaluate the evolutionary dynamics of the timing of spawning for iteroparous species. The life cycle of the species consists of three life stages, embryonic, juvenile and adult whereby the transitions of life stages (gametogenesis, birth and maturation) occur at species-specific sizes. The dynamics of the population is studied in a semi-chemostat environment where the inflowing food concentration is periodic (annual). A dynamic energy budget-based continuous-time model is used to describe the uptake of the food, storage in reserves and allocation of the energy to growth, maintenance, development (embryos, juveniles) and reproduction (adults). A discrete-event process is used for modelling reproduction. At a fixed spawning date of the year, the reproduction buffer is emptied and a new cohort is formed by eggs with a fixed size and energy content. The population consists of cohorts: for each year one consisting of individuals with the same age which die after their last reproduction event. The resulting mathematical model is a finite-dimensional set of ordinary differential equations with fixed 1-year periodic boundary conditions yielding a stroboscopic map. We will study the evolutionary development of the population using the adaptive dynamics approach. The trait is the timing of spawning. Pairwise and mutual invasibility plots are calculated using bifurcation analysis of the stroboscopic map. The evolutionary singular strategy value belonging to the evolutionary endpoint for the trait allows for an interpretation of the reproduction strategy of the population. In a case study, parameter values from the literature for the bivalve Macoma balthica are used. PMID:20921055

Kooi, B W; van der Meer, J

2010-11-12

339

Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.  

PubMed

Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V

2014-01-01

340

Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations  

PubMed Central

Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success. PMID:17148350

Norris, D. Ryan; Taylor, Caz M

2005-01-01

341

Eukaryotic transcriptional dynamics: from single molecules to cell populations  

PubMed Central

Transcriptional regulation is achieved through combinatorial interactions between regulatory elements in the human genome and a vast range of factors that modulate the recruitment and activity of RNA polymerase. Experimental approaches for studying transcription in vivo now extend from single-molecule techniques to genome-wide measurements. Parallel to these developments is the need for testable quantitative and predictive models for understanding gene regulation. These conceptual models must also provide insight into the dynamics of transcription and the variability that is observed at the single-cell level. In this Review, we discuss recent results on transcriptional regulation and also the models those results engender. We show how a non-equilibrium description informs our view of transcription by explicitly considering time-and energy-dependence at the molecular level. PMID:23835438

Coulon, Antoine; Chow, Carson C.; Singer, Robert H.; Larson, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

342

Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: The Ddal modelling framework.  

PubMed

Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms. PMID:24480053

Papaïx, Julien; Adamczyk-Chauvat, Katarzyna; Bouvier, Annie; Kiêu, Kiên; Touzeau, Suzanne; Lannou, Christian; Monod, Hervé

2014-10-01

343

Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations  

E-print Network

In addressing the origins of Darwinian evolution, recent experimental work has been focussed on the discovery of simple physical effects which would provide a relevant selective advantage to protocells competing with each other for a limited supply of lipid. In particular, data coming from Szostak's lab suggest that the transition from simple prebiotically plausible lipid membranes to more complex and heterogeneous ones, closer to real biomembranes, may have been driven by changes in the fluidity of the membrane and its affinity for the available amphiphilic compound, which in turn would involve changes in vesicle growth dynamics. Earlier work from the same group reported osmotically-driven competition effects, whereby swelled vesicles grow at the expense of isotonic ones. In this paper, we try to expand on these experimental studies by providing a simple mathematical model of a population of competing vesicles, studied at the level of lipid kinetics. In silico simulations of the model are able to reproduce qualitatively and often quantitatively the experimentally reported competition effects in both scenarios. We also develop a method for numerically solving the equilibrium of a population of competing model vesicles, which is quite general and applicable to different vesicle kinetics schemes.

Ben Shirt-Ediss; Kepa Ruiz-Mirazo; Fabio Mavelli; Ricard V. Solé

2014-01-30

344

Population dynamics of a meiotic/mitotic expansion model for the fragile X syndrome  

SciTech Connect

A model to explain the mutational process and population dynamics of the fragile X syndrome is presented. The mutational mechanism was assumed to be a multi-pathway, multistep process. Expansion of CGG repeats was based on an underlying biological process and was assumed to occur at two time points: meiosis and early embryonic development (mitosis). Meiotic expansion was assumed to occur equally in oogenesis and spermatogenesis, while mitotic expansion was restricted to somatic, or constitutional, alleles of maternal origin. Testable hypotheses were predicted by this meiotic/mitotic model. First, parental origin of mutation is predicted to be associated with the risk of a woman to have a full-mutation child. Second, {open_quotes}contractions{close_quotes} seen in premutation male transmissions are predicted not to be true contractions in repeat size, but a consequence of the lack of mitotic expansion in paternally derived alleles. Third, a portion of full-mutation males should have full-mutation alleles in their sperm, due to the lack of complete selection against the full-mutation female. Fourth, a specific premutation-allele frequency distribution is predicted and differs from that based on models assuming only meiotic expansion. Last, it is predicted that {approximately}65 generations are required to achieve equilibrium, but this depends greatly on the expansion probabilities. 42 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

Ashley, A.E.; Sherman, S.L. [Emory Univ. School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA (United States)

1995-12-01

345

Accuracy of Across-Environment Genome-Wide Prediction in Maize Nested Association Mapping Populations  

PubMed Central

Most of previous empirical studies with genome-wide prediction were focused on within-environment prediction based on a single-environment (SE) model. In this study, we evaluated accuracy improvements of across-environment prediction by using genetic and residual covariance across correlated environments. Predictions with a multienvironment (ME) model were evaluated for two corn polygenic leaf structure traits, leaf length and leaf width, based on within-population (WP) and across-population (AP) experiments using a large maize nested association mapping data set consisting of 25 populations of recombinant inbred-lines. To make our study more applicable to plant breeding, two cross-validation schemes were used by evaluating accuracies of (CV1) predicting unobserved phenotypes of untested lines and (CV2) predicting unobserved phenotypes of lines that have been evaluated in some environments but not others. We concluded that (1) genome-wide prediction provided greater prediction accuracies than traditional quantitative trait loci-based prediction in both WP and AP and provided more advantages over quantitative trait loci -based prediction for WP than for AP. (2) Prediction accuracy with ME was significantly greater than that attained by SE in CV1 and CV2, and gains with ME over SE were greater in CV2 than in CV1. These gains were also greater in WP than in AP in both CV1 and CV2. (3) Gains with ME over SE attributed to genetic correlation between environments, with little effect from residual correlation. Impacts of marker density on predictions also were investigated in this study. PMID:23390602

Guo, Zhigang; Tucker, Dominic M.; Wang, Daolong; Basten, Christopher J.; Ersoz, Elhan; Briggs, William H.; Lu, Jianwei; Li, Min; Gay, Gilles

2013-01-01

346

Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.  

PubMed

Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is essential to model and resolve the details of physical behaviour of populations in ultrafast spectroscopy such as pump-probe, pump-dump-probe and pump-repump-probe experiments. PMID:21445294

van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

2011-01-01

347

Prediction of HLA Class II Alleles Using SNPs in an African Population  

PubMed Central

Background Despite the importance of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) gene locus in research and clinical practice, direct HLA typing is laborious and expensive. Furthermore, the analysis requires specialized software and expertise which are unavailable in most developing country settings. Recently, in silico methods have been developed for predicting HLA alleles using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). However, the utility of these methods in African populations has not been systematically evaluated. Methodology/Principal Findings In the present study, we investigate prediction of HLA class II (HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1) alleles using SNPs in the Wolaita population, southern Ethiopia. The subjects comprised 297 Ethiopians with genome-wide SNP data, of whom 188 had also been HLA typed and were used for training and testing the model. The 109 subjects with SNP data alone were used for empirical prediction using the multi-allelic gene prediction method. We evaluated accuracy of the prediction, agreement between predicted and HLA typed alleles, and discriminative ability of the prediction probability supplied by the model. We found that the model predicted intermediate (two-digit) resolution for HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles at accuracy levels of 96% and 87%, respectively. All measures of performance showed high accuracy and reliability for prediction. The distribution of the majority of HLA alleles in the study was similar to that previously reported for the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups from Ethiopia. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that HLA class II alleles can be predicted from SNP genotype data with a high level of accuracy at intermediate (two-digit) resolution in an African population. This finding offers new opportunities for HLA studies of disease epidemiology and population genetics in developing countries. PMID:22761960

Ayele, Fasil Tekola; Hailu, Elena; Finan, Chris; Aseffa, Abraham; Davey, Gail; Newport, Melanie J.; Rotimi, Charles N.; Adeyemo, Adebowale

2012-01-01

348

Labour-Efficient In Vitro Lymphocyte Population Tracking and Fate Prediction Using Automation and Manual Review  

PubMed Central

Interest in cell heterogeneity and differentiation has recently led to increased use of time-lapse microscopy. Previous studies have shown that cell fate may be determined well in advance of the event. We used a mixture of automation and manual review of time-lapse live cell imaging to track the positions, contours, divisions, deaths and lineage of 44 B-lymphocyte founders and their 631 progeny in vitro over a period of 108 hours. Using this data to train a Support Vector Machine classifier, we were retrospectively able to predict the fates of individual lymphocytes with more than 90% accuracy, using only time-lapse imaging captured prior to mitosis or death of 90% of all cells. The motivation for this paper is to explore the impact of labour-efficient assistive software tools that allow larger and more ambitious live-cell time-lapse microscopy studies. After training on this data, we show that machine learning methods can be used for realtime prediction of individual cell fates. These techniques could lead to realtime cell culture segregation for purposes such as phenotype screening. We were able to produce a large volume of data with less effort than previously reported, due to the image processing, computer vision, tracking and human-computer interaction tools used. We describe the workflow of the software-assisted experiments and the graphical interfaces that were needed. To validate our results we used our methods to reproduce a variety of published data about lymphocyte populations and behaviour. We also make all our data publicly available, including a large quantity of lymphocyte spatio-temporal dynamics and related lineage information. PMID:24404133

Chakravorty, Rajib; Rawlinson, David; Zhang, Alan; Markham, John; Dowling, Mark R.; Wellard, Cameron; Zhou, Jie H. S.; Hodgkin, Philip D.

2014-01-01

349

Statistical mechanics of epidemics and population dynamics on networks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

After a short introduction to the modeling of epidemics and population dynamics, we investigate in chapter 2, the time-evolution and steady states of an epidemic model (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible) on a network having the topology of the hypercubic lattice. We compare the behavior of this system, obtained from computer simulations, with those obtained from the mean-field approximation and pair-approximation. We find that the latter is significantly better than the former. In chapter 3, we study the behavior of a simple epidemic process (susceptible-infected-susceptible) on realistic networks in which vertices represent individuals and edges the interactions between them. Of particular interest are scale free networks with power-law distribution of degree, the number of edges emanating from a vertex. Considering cases where the transmission of infection between vertices depends on their degree, we introduce a saturation function which reduces the infection transmission rate across an edge leading to a node with high connectivity. This leads to a finite epidemic threshold on scale free networks with infinite second moment degree distribution above which the endemic infected state will be sustained and below which the disease dies out. In chapter 4, we study the time evolution and stationary states of a stochastic population model (contact process) with spatial heterogeneity and imposed drift (wind) on one- and two-dimensional lattices. We consider in particular a situation in which space is divided into two regions: an oasis and a desert (low and high death rates). Depending on the values of the drift and other parameters the population in the stationary state will be zero, localized, or delocalized. Finally, in appendix A we discuss a very different delocalized to localized type phase transition: the Mott metal insulator transition occurring in a half-filled single-band Hubbard model on a Bethe lattice. In the limit of infinite lattice coordination this model is mapped onto a single impurity Anderson model supplemented by a self-consistency condition, called dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) which freezes spatial fluctuations but takes full account of temporal fluctuations between possible quantum states at a given lattice site. This DMFT is solved numerically by using Quantum Monte Carlo methods. We provide numerical evidence for the coexistence of delocalized(metallic) and localized (insulating) phases at finite temperature.

Joo, Jaewook

350

Reliabilities of genomic prediction using combined reference data of the Nordic Red dairy cattle populations.  

PubMed

This study investigated the possibility of increasing the reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) by combining reference populations. The data were from 3,735 bulls from Danish, Swedish, and Finnish Red dairy cattle populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism markers were fitted as random variables in a Bayesian model, using published estimated breeding values as response variables. In total, 17 index traits were analyzed. Reliabilities were estimated using a 5-fold cross validation, and calculated as the within-year squared correlation between estimated breeding values and DGV. Marker effects were estimated using reference populations from individual countries, as well as using a combined reference population from all 3 countries. Single-country reference populations gave mean reliabilities across 17 traits of 0.19 to 0.23, whereas the combined reference gave mean reliabilities of 0.26 for all populations. Using marker effects from 1 population to predict the other 2 gave a loss in mean reliability of 0.14 to 0.21 when predicting Swedish or Finnish animals with Danish marker effects, or vice versa. Using Swedish or Finnish marker effects to predict each other only showed a loss in mean reliability of 0.03 to 0.05. A combined Swedish-Finnish reference population led to an average reliability as high as that from the 3-country reference population, but somewhat different for individual traits. The results from this study show that it is possible to increase the reliability of DGV by combining reference populations from related populations. PMID:21854944

Brøndum, R F; Rius-Vilarrasa, E; Strandén, I; Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Fikse, W F; Lund, M S

2011-09-01

351

Multiprocess dynamic modeling of tumor evolution with bayesian tumor-specific predictions.  

PubMed

We propose a sequential probabilistic mixture model for individualized tumor growth forecasting. In contrast to conventional deterministic methods for estimation and prediction of tumor evolution, we utilize all available tumor-specific observations up to the present time to approximate the unknown multi-scale process of tumor growth over time, in a stochastic context. The suggested mixture model uses prior information obtained from the general population and becomes more individualized as more observations from the tumor are sequentially taken into account. Inference can be carried out using the full, possibly multimodal, posterior, and predictive distributions instead of point estimates. In our simulation study we illustrate the superiority of the suggested multi-process dynamic linear model compared to the single process alternative. The validation of our approach was performed with experimental data from mice. The methodology suggested in the present study may provide a starting point for personalized adaptive treatment strategies. PMID:24488234

Achilleos, Achilleas; Loizides, Charalambos; Hadjiandreou, Marios; Stylianopoulos, Triantafyllos; Mitsis, Georgios D

2014-05-01

352

Dynamics and Predictability of Deep Propagating Atmospheric Gravity Waves  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An overview will be provided of the first field campaign that attempts to follow deeply propagating gravity waves (GWs) from their tropospheric sources to their mesospheric breakdown. The DEEP propagating gravity WAVE experiment over New Zealand (DEEPWAVE-NZ) is a comprehensive, airborne and ground-based measurement and modeling program focused on providing a new understanding of GW dynamics and impacts from the troposphere through the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). This program will employ the new NSF/NCAR GV (NGV) research aircraft from a base in New Zealand in a 6-week field measurement campaign in June-July 2014. The NGV will be equipped with new lidar and airglow instruments for the DEEPWAVE measurement program, providing temperatures and vertical winds spanning altitudes from immediately above the NGV flight altitude (~13 km) to ~100 km. The region near New Zealand is chosen since all the relevant GW sources occur strongly here, and upper-level winds in austral winter permit GWs to propagate to very high altitudes. Given large-amplitude GWs that propagate routinely into the MLT, the New Zealand region offers an ideal natural laboratory for studying these important GW dynamics and effects impacting weather and climate over a much deeper atmospheric layer than previous campaigns have attempted (0-100 km altitude). The logistics of making measurements in the vicinity of New Zealand are potentially easier than from the Andes and Drake Passage region. A suite of GW-focused modeling and predictability tools will be used to guide NGV flight planning to GW events of greatest scientific significance. These models will also drive scientific interpretation of the GW measurements, together providing answers to the key science questions posed by DEEPWAVE about GW dynamics, morphology, predictability and impacts from 0-100 km. Preliminary results will be presented from high-resolution and adjoint models applied over areas featuring deep wave propagation. The high-resolution models highlight the role of lateral shear from the jet stream that refracts vertically propagating gravity waves generated by regions of high terrain, such as New Zealand and the southern Andes. The predictability links between the lower tropospheric fronts, cyclones, and jets, and GWs that vertically propagate upward through the stratosphere are quantified using a nonhydrostatic adjoint model. Results indicate that the forecast cross-mountain winds and gravity wave launching are very sensitive to the model initial state and in particular to synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of mid-latitude cyclones and fronts.

Doyle, J.; Fritts, D. C.; Smith, R.; Eckermann, S. D.

2012-12-01

353

Population similarity analysis of indicator bacteria for source prediction of faecal pollution in a coastal lake.  

PubMed

Biochemical fingerprinting (BF) databases of 524 enterococci and 571 Escherichia coli isolates and an antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA) database comprising of 380 E. coli isolates from four suspected sources (i.e. dogs, chickens, waterfowls, and human sewage) were developed to predict the sources of faecal pollution in a recreational coastal lake. Twenty water samples representing four sampling episodes were collected from five sites and the enterococci and E. coli population from each site were compared with those of the databases. The degree of similarity between bacterial populations was measured as population similarity (Sp) coefficient. Using the BF-database, bacterial populations of waterfowls showed the highest similarity with the water samples followed by a sewage treatment plant (STP). Higher population similarities were found between samples from STP and water samples especially at two sites (T2 and T3) which were located near the sewerage pipes collecting wastewater from the study area. When using the ARA-database, the highest similarity was found between E. coli populations from STP and water samples at sites T2 and T4. Both faecal indicators and as well as methods predicted human faecal pollution, possibly through leakage from submerged sewerage pipes. The results indicated that the Sp-analysis of faecal indicator bacterial populations from suspected sources and water samples can be used as a simple tool to predict the source(s) of faecal pollution in surface waters. PMID:18561957

Ahmed, W; Hargreaves, M; Goonetilleke, A; Katouli, M

2008-08-01

354

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2-5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6-9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2-5 years and 6-9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6-9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

Ho, Chun Kit; Hawkins, Ed; Shaffrey, Len; Underwood, Fiona M.

2013-08-01

355

Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.  

PubMed

Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America. PMID:22827121

Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

2012-06-01

356

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population  

E-print Network

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population JOAQUI diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental

Festa-Bianchet, Marco

357

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA  

EPA Science Inventory

Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

358

Population dynamics and interactions between endemic entomopathogenic nematodes and annual bluegrass weevil populations in golf course turfgrass  

Microsoft Academic Search

Entomopathogenic nematodes (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae and Heterorhabditidae) (EPNs) are generalist obligate pathogens present in the soil of most ecosystems. They have the potential to infect a broad host range, yet the potential for endemic EPNs to regulate soil-dwelling insect populations has received limited attention. We investigated the population dynamics of endemic EPNs to determine their ability to regulate annual bluegrass weevil

Benjamin A. McGraw; Albrecht M. Koppenhöfer

2009-01-01

359

Review of the interplay between population dynamics and malaria transmission in Ethiopia  

Microsoft Academic Search

Background: The rapid growth of human population in malaria endemic areas has become a threat leading to the resurgence of the disease. Population growth and ecological changes in malarious areas have important implications for malaria control due to the adverse effects of the disease on the population. Objective: To examine the relationship between different aspects of population dynamics and malaria

Wakgari Deressa; Ahmed Ali; Yemane Berhane

360

The spatial population dynamics of insects exploiting a patchy food resource  

Microsoft Academic Search

The population dynamics of ten species of phytophagous insects and seven parasitoids inhabiting the flowerheads of two herbaceous plants, Centaurea nigra and Arctium minus, were studied, and three main aspects of their ecology were examined, namely, rates of population extinction, density dependence in population changes from one generation to the next, and movements between populations. The study was based on

J. P. Dempster; D. A. Atkinson; M. C. French

1995-01-01

361

213 WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos  

E-print Network

213� WILDLIFE BIOLOGY � 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos americanus and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations Alejandro Gonzalez Voyer, Kirby G. Smith & Marco and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations. - Wildl. Biol. 9: 213-218. Native populations

Festa-Bianchet, Marco

362

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

1990-01-01

363

Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, and Impact of Vaccination  

E-print Network

Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, 2004; accepted for publication February 9, 2005. Pertussis is a worldwide infectious disease which view of pertussis dynamics and the impact of vaccination, the authors performed, using the wavelet

Roche, Benjamin

364

Dynamical recurrent neural networks--towards environmental time series prediction.  

PubMed

Dynamical Recurrent Neural Networks (DRNN) (Aussem 1995a) are a class of fully recurrent networks obtained by modeling synapses as autoregressive filters. By virtue of their internal dynamic, these networks approximate the underlying law governing the time series by a system of nonlinear difference equations of internal variables. They therefore provide history-sensitive forecasts without having to be explicitly fed with external memory. The model is trained by a local and recursive error propagation algorithm called temporal-recurrent-backpropagation. The efficiency of the procedure benefits from the exponential decay of the gradient terms backpropagated through the adjoint network. We assess the predictive ability of the DRNN model with meterological and astronomical time series recorded around the candidate observation sites for the future VLT telescope. The hope is that reliable environmental forecasts provided with the model will allow the modern telescopes to be preset, a few hours in advance, in the most suited instrumental mode. In this perspective, the model is first appraised on precipitation measurements with traditional nonlinear AR and ARMA techniques using feedforward networks. Then we tackle a complex problem, namely the prediction of astronomical seeing, known to be a very erratic time series. A fuzzy coding approach is used to reduce the complexity of the underlying laws governing the seeing. Then, a fuzzy correspondence analysis is carried out to explore the internal relationships in the data. Based on a carefully selected set of meteorological variables at the same time-point, a nonlinear multiple regression, termed nowcasting (Murtagh et al. 1993, 1995), is carried out on the fuzzily coded seeing records. The DRNN is shown to outperform the fuzzy k-nearest neighbors method. PMID:7496587

Aussem, A; Murtagh, F; Sarazin, M

1995-06-01

365

Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level  

PubMed Central

Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

Cerna, Lucie; Munzbergova, Zuzana

2013-01-01

366

metasim 1.0: an individual-based environment for simulating population genetics of complex population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

METASIM provides a flexible environment in which to perform individual-based population genetic simulations. A wide range of landscape-level dynamics, population structures, and within-population demographies can be represented using the framework implemented in this software. In addition, temporal variation in all demographic characteristics can be simulated, both deterministically and stochastically. Such simulations can be used to produce null distributions of genotypes

ALLAN E. S TRAND

367

HIV and population dynamics: A general model and maximum-likelihood standards for East Africa  

Microsoft Academic Search

In high-prevalence populations, the HIV epidemic undermines the validity of past empirical models and related demographic\\u000a techniques. A parsimonious model of HIV and population dynamics is presented here and fit to 46,000 observations, gathered\\u000a from 11 East African populations. The fitted model simulates HIV and population dynamics with standard demographic inputs\\u000a and only two additional parameters for the onset and

Patrick Heuveline

2003-01-01

368

The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds  

Microsoft Academic Search

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population.\\u000a Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge\\u000a exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods\\u000a enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and

Michael SchaubThomas; Thomas S. Reichlin; Fitsum Abadi; Marc Kéry; Lukas Jenni; Raphaël Arlettaz

369

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica  

Microsoft Academic Search

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low

Crone

1995-01-01

370

Reversed optimality and predictive ecology: burrowing depth forecasts population change in a bivalve  

PubMed Central

Optimality reasoning from behavioural ecology can be used as a tool to infer how animals perceive their environment. Using optimality principles in a ‘reversed manner’ may enable ecologists to predict changes in population size before such changes actually happen. Here we show that a behavioural anti-predation trait (burrowing depth) of the marine bivalve Macoma balthica can be used as an indicator of the change in population size over the year to come. The per capita population growth rate between years t and t+1 correlated strongly with the proportion of individuals living in the dangerous top 4?cm layer of the sediment in year t: the more individuals in the top layer, the steeper the population decline. This is consistent with the prediction based on optimal foraging theory that animals with poor prospects should accept greater risks of predation. This study is among the first to document fitness forecasting in animals. PMID:18940769

van Gils, Jan A.; Kraan, Casper; Dekinga, Anne; Koolhaas, Anita; Drent, Jan; de Goeij, Petra; Piersma, Theunis

2008-01-01

371

Financial Crisis Dynamic Prediction Based on Sliding Window Technology and Mahalanobis-Taguchi System  

Microsoft Academic Search

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of current existing model, the financial crisis prediction dynamic model is proposed. By means of the data streams processing method, the sliding window technology is used for real-time updated samples in this paper, and then the optimal features of samples are selected by Mahalanobis-Taguchi System. The financial crisis prediction dynamic model is built

Jianzhong Shi; Longsheng Cheng

2011-01-01

372

The effects of density-dependent dispersal on the spatiotemporal dynamics of cyclic populations.  

PubMed

Density-dependent dispersal occurs throughout the animal kingdom, and has been shown to occur in some taxa whose populations exhibit multi-year population cycles. However, the importance of density-dependent dispersal for the spatiotemporal dynamics of cyclic populations is unknown. We investigated the potential effects of density-dependent dispersal on the properties of periodic travelling waves predicted by two coupled reaction-diffusion models: a commonly used predator-prey model, and a general model of cyclic trophic interactions. We compared the effects of varying the gradient of both positive and negative density-dependent dispersal rates, to varying the ratio of the (constant) dispersal rates of the two interacting populations. Our comparison focussed on the possible range of wave properties, and on the waves generated by landscape obstacles and invasions. In all scenarios that we studied, varying the gradient of density-dependent dispersal has small quantitative effects on the travelling wave properties, relative to the effects of varying the ratio of the diffusion coefficients. PMID:18640692

Smith, Matthew J; Sherratt, Jonathan A; Lambin, Xavier

2008-09-21

373

Differences in the dynamics and potential production of impounded and unimpounded white sturgeon populations in the lower Columbia River  

SciTech Connect

White sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus were sampled in three lower Columbia River reservoirs from 1987 to 1991 to describe population dynamics, the ability of these stocks to sustain harvest, and differences among reservoir and unimpounded populations. Significant differences were observed among reservoirs in white sturgeon abundance, biomass, size composition, sex ratio, size of females at maturity, growth rate, condition factor, and rate of exploitation. No differences among reservoirs were detected in fecundity, natural mortality rate, or longevity, in part because of sampling difficulties. Recruitment rates and densities in reservoirs were inversely correlated with growth rate, condition factor, and size of females at maturity. Differences in population dynamics resulted in substantial differences in sustainable yields. Maximum yields per recruit were predicted at annual exploitation rates between 5 and 15%. Most characteristics of reservoir populations were less than or equal to optima reported for the unimpounded lower river; as a result, yield per recruit, reproductive potential per recruit, and the number of recruits were less in reservoirs than in the unimpounded river. Comparisons with pristine standing stocks suggest that the unimpounded river may approximate preimpoundment conditions for white sturgeon. We conclude that potential yield from impounded populations has been reduced by dam construction, which restricts populations to river segments that may not include conditions optimal for all life stages. Alternatives for enchancement of reservoir populations might include improved passage at dams, increased spring flow to improve spawning success, transplants from productive populations, hatchery supplementation, and more intensive harvest management. 54 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

Beamesderfer, R.C.P.; Rien, T.A.; Nigro, A.A. [Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Clackamas, OR (United States)

1995-11-01

374

Effects of plant genotype and insect dispersal rate on the population dynamics of a forest pest.  

PubMed

It has been shown that plant genotype can strongly affect not only individual herbivore performance, but also community composition and ecosystem function. Few studies, however, have addressed how plant genotype affects herbivore population dynamics. In this paper, we used a simulation modeling approach to ask how the genetic composition of a forest influences pest outbreak dynamics, using the example of aspen (Populus tremuloides) and forest tent caterpillars (FTC; Malacosoma disstria). Specifically, we examined how plant genotype, the relative size of genotypic patches, and the rate of insect dispersal between them, affect the frequency, amplitude, and duration of outbreaks. We found that coupling two different genotypes does not necessarily result in an averaging of insect dynamics. Instead, depending on the ratio of patch sizes, when dispersal rates are moderate, outbreaks in the two-genotype case may be more or less severe than in forests of either genotype alone. Thresholds for different dynamic behaviors were similar for all genotypic combinations. Thus, the qualitative behavior of a stand of two different genotypes can be predicted based on the response of the insect to each genotype, the relative sizes of the two patches, and the scale of insect dispersal. PMID:24597225

Moran, Emily V; Bewick, Sharon; Cobbold, Christina A

2013-12-01

375

The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems  

PubMed Central

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that their nestedness remains constant over time and that it is sustained by both, a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the industries that are missing according to nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks. PMID:23185326

Bustos, Sebastian; Gomez, Charles; Hausmann, Ricardo; Hidalgo, Cesar A.

2012-01-01

376

Nonlinearities lead to qualitative differences in population dynamics of predator-prey systems.  

PubMed

Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator - one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

Ameixa, Olga M C C; Messelink, Gerben J; Kindlmann, Pavel

2013-01-01

377

Ecological and life history characteristics predict population genetic divergence of two salmonids in the same landscape.  

PubMed

Ecological and life history characteristics such as population size, dispersal pattern, and mating system mediate the influence of genetic drift and gene flow on population subdivision. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) differ markedly in spawning location, population size and mating system. Based on these differences, we predicted that bull trout would have reduced genetic variation within and greater differentiation among populations compared with mountain whitefish. To test this hypothesis, we used microsatellite markers to determine patterns of genetic divergence for each species in the Clark Fork River, Montana, USA. As predicted, bull trout had a much greater proportion of genetic variation partitioned among populations than mountain whitefish. Among all sites, FST was seven times greater for bull trout (FST = 0.304 for bull trout, 0.042 for mountain whitefish. After removing genetically differentiated high mountain lake sites for each species FST, was 10 times greater for bull trout (FST = 0.176 for bull trout; FST = 0.018 for mountain whitefish). The same characteristics that affect dispersal patterns in these species also lead to predictions about the amount and scale of adaptive divergence among populations. We provide a theoretical framework that incorporates variation in ecological and life history factors, neutral divergence, and adaptive divergence to interpret how neutral and adaptive divergence might be correlates of ecological and life history factors. PMID:15548282

Whiteley, Andrew R; Spruell, Paul; Allendorf, Fred W

2004-12-01

378

Linking environmental and demographic data to predict future population viability of a perennial herb.  

PubMed

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, lambda(S)), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect population viability. PMID:20072788

Toräng, Per; Ehrlén, Johan; Agren, Jon

2010-05-01

379

Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.  

PubMed

Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

2013-08-01

380

Predictive equations for total lung capacity and residual volume calculated from radiographs in a random sample of the Michigan population  

Microsoft Academic Search

BACKGROUND: Published predicted values for total lung capacity and residual volume are often based on a small number of subjects and derive from different populations from predicted spirometric values. Equations from the only two large studies gave smaller predicted values for total lung capacity than the smaller studies. A large number of subjects have been studied from a population which

K H Kilburn; R H Warshaw; J C Thornton; K Thornton; A Miller

1992-01-01

381

Influence of Life-History Tactics on Transient Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis across Mammalian Populations.  

PubMed

Abstract Most mammalian populations suffer from natural or human-induced disturbances; populations are no longer at the equilibrium (i.e., at stable [st]age distribution) and exhibit transient dynamics. From a literature survey, we studied patterns of transient dynamics for mammalian species spanning a large range of life-history tactics and population growth rates. For each population, we built an age-structured matrix and calculated six metrics of transient dynamics. After controlling for possible confounding effects of the phylogenetic relatedness among species using a phylogenetic principal component analysis and phylogenetic generalized least squares models, we found that short-term demographic responses of mammalian populations to disturbance are shaped by generation time and growth rate. Species with a slow pace of life (i.e., species with a late maturity, a low fecundity, and a long life span) displayed decreases in population size after a disturbance, whereas fast-living species increased in population size. The magnitude of short-term variation in population size increased with asymptotic population growth, being buffered in slow-growing species (i.e., species with a low population growth rate) but large in fast-growing species. By demonstrating direct links between transient dynamics, life history (generation time), and ecology (demographic regime), our comparative analysis of transient dynamics clearly improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments and has clear implications for future studies of the interplay between evolutionary and ecological dynamics. As most populations in the wild are not at equilibrium, we recommend that analyses of transient dynamics be performed when studying population dynamics in variable environments. PMID:25325750

Gamelon, Marlène; Gimenez, Olivier; Baubet, Eric; Coulson, Tim; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2014-11-01

382

Population dynamics of plant and pollinator communities: stability reconsidered.  

PubMed

Plant-pollinator networks are systems of outstanding ecological and economic importance. A particularly intriguing aspect of these systems is their high diversity. However, earlier studies have concluded that the specific mechanisms of plant-pollinator interactions are destabilizing and should lead to a loss of diversity. Here we present a mechanistic model of plant and pollinator population dynamics with the ability to represent a broad spectrum of interaction structures. Using this model, we examined the influence of pollinators on the stability of a plant community and the relationship between pollinator specialization and stability. In accordance with earlier work, our results show that plant-pollinator interactions may severely destabilize plant coexistence, regardless of the degree of pollinator specialization. However, if plant niche differentiation, a classical stabilizing mechanism, is sufficiently strong to overcome the minority disadvantage with respect to pollination, interactions with pollinators may even increase the stability of a plant community. In addition to plant niche differentiation, the relationship between specialization and stability depends on a number of parameters that affect pollinator growth rates. Our results highlight the complex effects of this particular type of mutualism on community stability and call for further investigations of the mechanisms of diversity maintenance in plant-pollinator systems. PMID:22218306

Benadi, Gita; Blüthgen, Nico; Hovestadt, Thomas; Poethke, Hans-Joachim

2012-02-01

383

Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological?implications  

PubMed Central

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation. PMID:9419355

Pfister, Catherine A.

1998-01-01

384

Modeling the dynamics of natural rotifer populations: phase-parametric analysis  

E-print Network

A model of the dynamics of natural rotifer populations is described as a discrete nonlinear map depending on three parameters, which reflect characteristics of the population and environment. Model dynamics and their change by variation of these parameters were investigated by methods of bifurcation theory. A phase-parametric portrait of the model was constructed and domains of population persistence (stable equilibrium, periodic and a-periodic oscillations of population size) as well as population extinction were identified and investigated. The criteria for population persistence and approaches to determining critical parameter values are described. The results identify parameter values that lead to population extinction under various environmental conditions. They further illustrate that the likelihood of extinction can be substantially increased by small changes in environmental quality, which shifts populations into new dynamical regimes.

Faina S. Berezovskaya; Georgy P. Karev; Terry W. Snell

2005-05-24

385

Predicted Impact of Barriers to Migration on the Serengeti Wildebeest Population  

E-print Network

Predicted Impact of Barriers to Migration on the Serengeti Wildebeest Population Ricardo M. Holdo1, Florida, United States of America Abstract The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatially- explicit simulation model

Holt, Robert D.

386

Yellow Perch in South Dakota: Population Variability and Predicted Effects of Creel Limit Reductions and  

E-print Network

Yellow Perch in South Dakota: Population Variability and Predicted Effects of Creel Limit, Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57106, USA Abstract.--We collected annual gill-net samples of yellow perch in daily creel limits for yellow perch (i.e., from 25 fish/angler to 5, 10, or 15 fish/angler) and use

387

Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

2011-01-01

388

The Predictive Ability of IQ and Working Memory Scores in Literacy in an Adult Population  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Literacy problems are highly prevalent and can persist into adulthood. Yet, the majority of research on the predictive nature of cognitive skills to literacy has primarily focused on development and adolescent populations. The aim of the present study was to extend existing research to investigate the roles of IQ scores and Working Memory…

Alloway, Tracy Packiam; Gregory, David

2013-01-01

389

General properties of predictive population models in red grouse ( Lagopus lagopus scoticus )  

Microsoft Academic Search

The general properties of an empirical predictive model of population fluctuations in red grouse are discussed. The model incorporates two observed time-lagged relationships between (a) chick production and spring numbers two years earlier, and (b) overwinter survival and numbers in spring one year earlier. The model produced oscillations which were slowly damped with a period of nine years. The addition

P. Rothery; R. Moss; A. Watson

1984-01-01

390

A Novel and Improved Method of Predicting Hand Grip Strength in the Adult Malaysian Population  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary Hand grip strength measurement is a recognized part of hand function assessment. The standard measurement using the Jamar® dynamometer and comparing these results to the recommended normal values suggested by the manufacturers of the Jamar® was questioned as these values were based on Western population. A study comparing a novel method of predicting grip strength using our software was

T Kamarul; T Sara Ahmad; William Y C Loh

2006-01-01

391

Genetic divergence does not predict change in ornament expression among populations of stalk-eyed flies  

Microsoft Academic Search

Stalk-eyed flies (Diptera: Diopsidae) possess eyes at the ends of elongated peduncles, and exhibit dramatic variation in eye span, relative to body length, among species. In some sexually dimorphic species, evidence indicates that eye span is under both intra- and intersexual selection. Theory predicts that isolated populations should evolve differences in sexually selected traits due to drift. To determine if

JOHN G. S WALLOW; LISA E. W ALLACE; SARAH J. C HRISTIANSON; PHILIP M. J OHNS; GERALD S. W ILKINSON

2005-01-01

392

Predicting Student Academic Performance in an Engineering Dynamics Course: A Comparison of Four Types of Predictive Mathematical Models  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…

Huang, Shaobo; Fang, Ning

2013-01-01

393

Coupling Terrestrial and Atmospheric Water Dynamics to Improve Prediction in a Changing Environment  

E-print Network

Fluxes across the land surface directly influence predictions of ecological processes, atmospheric dynamics, and terrestrial hydrology. However, many simplifications are made in numerical models when considering ...

Lyon, Steve W.; Dominguez, Francina; Gochis, David J.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Castro, Christopher; Chow, Fotini K.; Fan, Ying; Fuka, Daniel; Hong, Yang; Kucera, Paul A.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidli, Juerg; Snyder, Peter K.; Teuling, Adriaam J.; Twine, Tracy E.; Levis, Samuel; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Sealy, Andrea M.; Walter, M. Todd

2008-09-01

394

Fluid mechanics of dynamic stall. II - Prediction of full scale characteristics  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Analytical extrapolations are made from experimental subscale dynamics to predict full scale characteristics of dynamic stall. The method proceeds by establishing analytic relationships between dynamic and static aerodynamic characteristics induced by viscous flow effects. The method is then validated by predicting dynamic test results on the basis of corresponding static test data obtained at the same subscale flow conditions, and the effect of Reynolds number on the static aerodynamic characteristics are determined from subscale to full scale flow conditions.

Ericsson, L. E.; Reding, J. P.

1988-01-01

395

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics  

PubMed Central

Local spatio-temporal resource variations can strongly influence the population dynamics of small mammals. This is particularly true on islands which are bottom-up driven systems, lacking higher order predators and with high variability in resource subsidies. The influence of resource fluctuations on animal survival may be mediated by individual movement among habitat patches, but simultaneously analysing survival, resource availability and habitat selection requires sophisticated analytical methods. We use a Bayesian multi-state capture–recapture model to estimate survival and movement probabilities of non-native black rats (Rattus rattus) across three habitats seasonally varying in resource availability. We find that survival varies most strongly with temporal rainfall patterns, overwhelming minor spatial variation among habitats. Surprisingly for a generalist forager, movement between habitats was rare, suggesting individuals do not opportunistically respond to spatial resource subsidy variations. Climate is probably the main driver of rodent population dynamics on islands, and even substantial habitat and seasonal spatial subsidies are overwhelmed in magnitude by predictable annual patterns in resource pulses. Marked variation in survival and capture has important implications for the timing of rat control. PMID:21775327

Russell, James C.; Ruffino, Lise

2012-01-01

396

Review of Gizzard Shad Population Dynamics at the Northwestern Edge of Its Range  

Microsoft Academic Search

Gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum is widely distributed in North America, and South Dakota marks the northwestern edge of its native range. To date, most research regarding population dynamics of gizzard shad has been con- ducted in more southerly waters. We reviewed the dynamics and biology of giz- zard shad populations in South Dakota and compared this information with that reported

Melissa R. Wuellne R; W. Willis

397

Sea lice and salmon population dynamics: effects of exposure time for migratory fish  

E-print Network

V8P 5C2, Canada The ecological impact of parasite transmission from fish farms is probably mediated�louse population dynamics, and should therefore be accommodated in coastal planning and management where fish farmsSea lice and salmon population dynamics: effects of exposure time for migratory fish Martin Krkosek

Lewis, Mark

398

The Population Dynamical Implications of Male-Biased Parasitism in Different Mating Systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established ‘two-sex’ model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect

Martin R. Miller; Andrew White; Kenneth Wilson; Michael Boots; Alison Galvani

2007-01-01

399

Population dynamics and the effect of disturbance in the monocarpic herb Carlina vulgaris (Asteraceae)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Löfgren, P., Eriksson, O. & Lehtilä, K. 2000: Population dynamics and the effect of disturbance in the monocarpic herb Carlina vulgaris (Asteraceae). — Ann. Bot. Fennici 37: 183-192. The population dynamics of short-lived monocarpic perennials are often considered to be influenced by disturbance, providing areas of bare soil. We studied demography of the monocarpic herb Carlina vulgaris (Asteraceae), with special

Per Löfgren; Ove Eriksson; Kari Lehtilä

400

Predicting Program Execution Times by Analyzing Static and Dynamic Program Paths  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes a method to predict guaranteed and tight deterministic execution time bounds of a sequential program. The basic prediction technique is a static analysis based on simple timing schema for source-level language constructs, which gives accurate predictions in many cases. Using powerful user-provided information, dynamic path analysis refines looser predictions by eliminating infeasible paths and decomposing the possible

Chang Yun Park

1993-01-01

401

[Reconstruction of Polytrichum juniperinum population dynamics in a mire of China].  

PubMed

By using 'history reconstruction method', this paper studied the dynamics of two Polytrichum juniperinum populations with and without sporophytes. The population with sporophyte production experienced a dynamic process from increase to stabilization, while that without sporophyte production experienced a process from increase to decrease. Before 2003, both the increase rate and the birth rate of two populations decreased continuously, with the death rate showing the tendency from decrease to a continuous increase. The advantages of 'history reconstruction method' in studying population dynamics were proved and discussed. PMID:16471372

Bu, Zhaojun; Yang, Yunfei; Wang, Shengzhong; Wang, Xianwei; Dai, Dan

2005-11-01

402

Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model  

PubMed Central

Background Culicoides imicola KIEFFER, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is the principal vector of Bluetongue disease in the Mediterranean basin, Africa and Asia. Previous studies have identified a range of eco-climatic variables associated with the distribution of C. imicola, and these relationships have been used to predict the large-scale distribution of the vector. However, these studies are not temporally-explicit and can not be used to predict the seasonality in C. imicola abundances. Between 2001 and 2006, longitudinal entomological surveillance was carried out throughout Italy, and provided a comprehensive spatio-temporal dataset of C. imicola catches in Onderstepoort-type black-light traps, in particular in Sardinia where the species is considered endemic. Methods We built a dynamic model that allows describing the effect of eco-climatic indicators on the monthly abundances of C. imicola in Sardinia. Model precision and accuracy were evaluated according to the influence of process and observation errors. Results A first-order autoregressive cofactor, a digital elevation model and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST)/or temperatures acquired from weather stations explained ~77% of the variability encountered in the samplings carried out in 9 sites during 6?years. Incorporating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or rainfall did not increase the model's predictive capacity. On average, dynamics simulations showed good accuracy (predicted vs. observed r corr?=?0.9). Although the model did not always reproduce the absolute levels of monthly abundances peaks, it succeeded in reproducing the seasonality in population level and allowed identifying the periods of low abundances and with no apparent activity. On that basis, we mapped C. imicola monthly distribution over the entire Sardinian region. Conclusions This study demonstrated prospects for modelling data arising from Culicoides longitudinal entomological surveillance. The framework explicitly incorporates the influence of eco-climatic factors on population growth rates and accounts for observation and process errors. Upon validation, such a model could be used to predict monthly population abundances on the basis of environmental conditions, and hence can potentially reduce the amount of entomological surveillance. PMID:23174043

2012-01-01

403

Movement toward stability as a fundamental principle of population dynamics  

Microsoft Academic Search

Although convergence to stability is typically a complex and irregular process, the Kullback distance provides a measure that\\u000a moves consistently to 0 as a population becomes stable. The roots of the Kullback distance are in information theory. but\\u000a it is a meaningful demographic quantity. It reflects a population’s log momentum, or the amount of growth built into a population’s\\u000a nonstable

Robert Schoen; Young J. Kim

1991-01-01

404

Aircraft T-tail flutter predictions using computational fluid dynamics  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The paper presents the application of computational aeroelasticity (CA) methods to the analysis of a T-tail stability in transonic regime. For this flow condition unsteady aerodynamics show a significant dependency from the aircraft equilibrium flight configuration, which rules both the position of shock waves in the flow field and the load distribution on the horizontal tail plane. Both these elements have an influence on the aerodynamic forces, and so on the aeroelastic stability of the system. The numerical procedure proposed allows to investigate flutter stability for a free-flying aircraft, iterating until convergence the following sequence of sub-problems: search for the trimmed condition for the deformable aircraft; linearize the system about the stated equilibrium point; predict the aeroelastic stability boundaries using the inferred linear model. An innovative approach based on sliding meshes allows to represent the changes of the computational fluid domain due to the motion of control surfaces used to trim the aircraft. To highlight the importance of keeping the linear model always aligned to the trim condition, and at the same time the capabilities of the computational fluid dynamics approach, the method is applied to a real aircraft with a T-tail configuration: the P180.

Attorni, A.; Cavagna, L.; Quaranta, G.

2011-02-01

405

Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes  

PubMed Central

Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

1999-01-01

406

Spreading dynamics on heterogeneous populations: Multitype network approach Alexei Vazquez  

E-print Network

. In the case of sexually transmitted diseases the reproductive num- ber is proportional to the rate of sexual diseases in heterogeneous populations. The population structure is de- scribed by a contact graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population

Vazquez, Alexei

407

Structure-Dynamics Relationships in Bursting Neuronal Networks Revealed Using a Prediction Framework  

PubMed Central

The question of how the structure of a neuronal network affects its functionality has gained a lot of attention in neuroscience. However, the vast majority of the studies on structure-dynamics relationships consider few types of network structures and assess limited numbers of structural measures. In this in silico study, we employ a wide diversity of network topologies and search among many possibilities the aspects of structure that have the greatest effect on the network excitability. The network activity is simulated using two point-neuron models, where the neurons are activated by noisy fluctuation of the membrane potential and their connections are described by chemical synapse models, and statistics on the number and quality of the emergent network bursts are collected for each network type. We apply a prediction framework to the obtained data in order to find out the most relevant aspects of network structure. In this framework, predictors that use different sets of graph-theoretic measures are trained to estimate the activity properties, such as burst count or burst length, of the networks. The performances of these predictors are compared with each other. We show that the best performance in prediction of activity properties for networks with sharp in-degree distribution is obtained when the prediction is based on clustering coefficient. By contrast, for networks with broad in-degree distribution, the maximum eigenvalue of the connectivity graph gives the most accurate prediction. The results shown for small () networks hold with few exceptions when different neuron models, different choices of neuron population and different average degrees are applied. We confirm our conclusions using larger () networks as well. Our findings reveal the relevance of different aspects of network structure from the viewpoint of network excitability, and our integrative method could serve as a general framework for structure-dynamics studies in biosciences. PMID:23935998

Maki-Marttunen, Tuomo; Acimovic, Jugoslava; Ruohonen, Keijo; Linne, Marja-Leena

2013-01-01

408

Structure-dynamics relationships in bursting neuronal networks revealed using a prediction framework.  

PubMed

The question of how the structure of a neuronal network affects its functionality has gained a lot of attention in neuroscience. However, the vast majority of the studies on structure-dynamics relationships consider few types of network structures and assess limited numbers of structural measures. In this in silico study, we employ a wide diversity of network topologies and search among many possibilities the aspects of structure that have the greatest effect on the network excitability. The network activity is simulated using two point-neuron models, where the neurons are activated by noisy fluctuation of the membrane potential and their connections are described by chemical synapse models, and statistics on the number and quality of the emergent network bursts are collected for each network type. We apply a prediction framework to the obtained data in order to find out the most relevant aspects of network structure. In this framework, predictors that use different sets of graph-theoretic measures are trained to estimate the activity properties, such as burst count or burst length, of the networks. The performances of these predictors are compared with each other. We show that the best performance in prediction of activity properties for networks with sharp in-degree distribution is obtained when the prediction is based on clustering coefficient. By contrast, for networks with broad in-degree distribution, the maximum eigenvalue of the connectivity graph gives the most accurate prediction. The results shown for small ([Formula: see text]) networks hold with few exceptions when different neuron models, different choices of neuron population and different average degrees are applied. We confirm our conclusions using larger ([Formula: see text]) networks as well. Our findings reveal the relevance of different aspects of network structure from the viewpoint of network excitability, and our integrative method could serve as a general framework for structure-dynamics studies in biosciences. PMID:23935998

Mäki-Marttunen, Tuomo; A?imovi?, Jugoslava; Ruohonen, Keijo; Linne, Marja-Leena

2013-01-01

409

Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Controlling species invasions is a leading problem for applied ecology. While controlling populations expanding linearly or exponentially is straightforward, intervention in systems with complex dynamics can have complicated, and sometimes counterintuitive, consequences. Most invasive plant populations are stage-structured and density-dependent— a recipe for complex dynamics—and yet few population models have been created to explore the effects of control efforts on

Eleanor A. Pardini; John M. Drake; Jonathan M. Chase; Tiffany M. Knight

2009-01-01