Sample records for predicting population dynamics

  1. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed Central

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M.; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-01-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  2. Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments

    Microsoft Academic Search

    2008-01-01

    I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model pre- dictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus ,t o examine how geographic

  3. Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lauren B

    2008-01-01

    I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges. PMID:18171140

  4. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  5. Predicting Population Curves.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bunton, Matt

    2003-01-01

    Uses graphs to involve students in inquiry-based population investigations on the Wisconsin gray wolf. Requires students to predict future changes in the wolf population, carrying capacity, and deer population. (YDS)

  6. Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

    2014-10-01

    Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders. PMID:25154754

  7. Life-History variation predicts the effects of dmographic sochasticity on avian population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Steinar Engen; Anders Pape Møller; Henri Weimerskirch; Wolfgang Fiedler; Erik Matthysen; M. M. Lambrechts; A. Badyaev; P. H. Becker; J. E. Brommer; D. Bukacinski; M. Bukacinski; H. Christensen; J. Dickinson; Feu du C; F. R. Gehlbach; D. Heg; H. Hötker; J. Merilä; J. T. Nielsen; W. Rendell; R. J. Robertson; D. L. Thomson; J. Török; Hecke Van P

    2004-01-01

    Comparative analyses of avian population fluctuations have shown large interspecific differences in population variability that have been difficult to relate to variation in general ecological characteristics. Here we show that interspecific variation in demographic stochasticity, caused by random variation among individuals in their fitness contributions, can be predicted from a knowledge of the species' position along a \\

  8. Application of intelligent modeling to predict the population dynamics of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Frankfurter sausage containing Satureja bachtiarica extracts.

    PubMed

    Alghooneh, Ali; Alizadeh Behbahani, Behrooz; Noorbakhsh, Hamid; Tabatabaei Yazdi, Farideh

    2015-08-01

    Stepwise regression, Genetic Algorithm-Artificial Neural Network (GA-ANN) and Co-Active Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (CANFIS) were used to predict the effect of Satureja extracts (water and ethanol) on the population dynamics of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a complex food system (Frankfurter sausage). The stepwise regression, GA-ANN and CANFIS were fed with four inputs: concentration (at five levels 0, 2000, 4000, 6000 and 8000 ppm), type of extract (water and ethanol), temperature (at three levels 5, 15 and 25°?) and time (1-20 days). The results showed that the stepwise regression was good for modeling the population dynamics of P. aeruginosa (R(2) = 0.92). It was found that ANN with one hidden layer comprising 14 neurons gave the best fitting with the experimental data, so that made it possible to predict with a high determination coefficient (R(2) = 0.98). Also, an excellent agreement between CANFIS predictions and experimental data was observed (R(2) = 0.96). In this research, GA-ANN was the best approach to simulate the population dynamics of P. aeruginosa. Furthermore, Satureja bachtiarica ethanol extract was able to reduce P. aeruginosa population, showing stronger effect at 5 °C and the concentration of 8000 ppm. PMID:26079732

  9. Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

    2013-11-01

    Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3?months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland could be predicted 3?months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3?months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. PMID:23176630

  10. Stoichiometry and population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tom Andersen; James J. Elser; Dag O. Hessen

    2004-01-01

    Population dynamics theory forms the quantitative core from which most ecologists have developed their intuition about how species interactions, heterogeneity, and biodiversity play out in time. Throughout its development, theoretical population biology has built on variants of the Lotka-Volterra equations and in nearly all cases has taken a single-currency approach to understanding population change, abstracting populations as aggregations of individuals

  11. Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chonggang Xu; Mathieu Legros; Fred Gould; Alun L. Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    BackgroundAedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito vectors of human disease. The development of spatial models for Ae. aegypti provides a promising start toward model-guided vector control and risk assessment, but this will only be possible if models make reliable predictions. The reliability of model predictions is affected by specific sources of uncertainty in the model.Methodology\\/Principal FindingsThis study

  12. Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain

    Microsoft Academic Search

    SANDRA HAMEL; STEEVE D. COTE; MARCO FESTA-BIANCHET

    The understanding of population dynamics is a central issue for managing large mammals. Modeling has allowed population ecologists to increase their knowledge about complex systems and better predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear sensitive to harvest, but the relative influence of survival and reproductive rates on their population dynamics are not well understood. Using longitudinal

  13. Research Article Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear, Oreamnos americanus, population dynamics, sensitivity analysis. A complex but central goal in population

  14. Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a

    E-print Network

    Koprowski, John L.

    S T R A C T The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most characteristics that ultimately drive population dynamics. Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) are com- mon

  15. Extinction in population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. Escudero; J. Buceta; F. J. de La Rubia; Katja Lindenberg

    2004-01-01

    We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length Lc such that a population in a refuge larger

  16. Synchrony in Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Esa Ranta; Veijo Kaitala; Jan Lindstrom; Harto Linden

    1995-01-01

    Our data are long-term population dynamics of a set of species in different localities in Finland. There is considerable level of species-specific synchrony in population fluctuations among the localities. The degree of synchrony levels off with increasing distance among the populations compared. Climatic perturbations and dispersal have been proposed as pace-making factors for synchrony. According to Moran's theorem, local populations

  17. Uncertainty analysis of transient population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chonggang Xu; George Z. Gertner

    2009-01-01

    Two types of demographic analyses, perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis, can be conducted to gain insights about matrix population models and guide population management. Perturbation analysis studies how the perturbation of demographic parameters (survival, growth, and reproduction parameters) may affect the population projection, while uncertainty analysis evaluates how much uncertainty there is in population dynamic predictions and where the uncertainty

  18. Extinction in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Escudero, C; Buceta, J; de la Rubia, F J; Lindenberg, Katja

    2004-02-01

    We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length L(c) such that a population in a refuge larger than this is assured survival. Herein we extend the model to take into account the discreteness and finiteness of the population, which leads us to a stochastic description. We present a particular critical criterion for likely extinction, namely, that the standard deviation of the population be equal to the mean. According to this criterion, we find that while survival can no longer be guaranteed for any refuge size, for sufficiently weak competition one can make the refuge large enough (certainly larger than L(c)) to cause extinction to be unlikely. However, beyond a certain value of the competition rate parameter it is no longer possible to escape a likelihood of extinction even in an infinite refuge. These unavoidable fluctuations therefore have a severe impact on refuge design issues. PMID:14995492

  19. Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Petchey, O L

    2000-01-01

    Single-species populations of ciliates (Colpidium and Paramecium) experienced constant temperature or white or reddened temperature fluctuations in aquatic microcosms in order to test three hypotheses about how environmental colour influences population dynamics. (i) Models predict that the colour of population dynamics is tinged by the colour of the environmental variability. However, environmental colour had no effect on the colour of population dynamics. All population dynamics in this experiment were reddened, regardless of environmental colour. (ii) Models predict that populations will track reddened environmental variability more closely than white environmental variability and that populations with a higher intrinsic growth rate (r) will track environmental variability more closely than populations with a low r. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. (iii) Models predict that population variability is determined by interaction between r and the environmental variability. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. These results show that (i) reddened population dynamics may need no special explanation, such as reddened environments, spatial subdivision or interspecific interactions, and (ii) and (iii) that population dynamics are sensitive to environmental colour, in agreement with population models. Correct specification of the colour of the environmental variability in models is required for accurate predictions. Further work is needed to study the effects of environmental colour on communities and ecosystems. PMID:10819142

  20. Incidence rates in dynamic populations

    PubMed Central

    Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Pearce, Neil

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present article is to explain the calculation of incidence rates in dynamic populations with the use of simple mathematical and statistical concepts. The first part will consider incidence rates in dynamic populations, and how they can best be taught in basic, intermediate and advanced courses. The second part will briefly explain how and why incidence rates are calculated in cohorts. PMID:23045207

  1. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  2. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  3. Population dynamics in compressible flows

    E-print Network

    Roberto Benzi; Mogens H. Jensen; David R. Nelson; Prasad Perlekar; Simone Pigolotti; Federico Toschi

    2012-03-28

    Organisms often grow, migrate and compete in liquid environments, as well as on solid surfaces. However, relatively little is known about what happens when competing species are mixed and compressed by fluid turbulence. In these lectures we review our recent work on population dynamics and population genetics in compressible velocity fields of one and two dimensions. We discuss why compressible turbulence is relevant for population dynamics in the ocean and we consider cases both where the velocity field is turbulent and when it is static. Furthermore, we investigate populations in terms of a continuos density field and when the populations are treated via discrete particles. In the last case we focus on the competition and fixation of one species compared to another

  4. PREDICTING WILDLIFE POPULATION EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  5. Population dynamics of bacterial persistence.

    PubMed

    Patra, Pintu; Klumpp, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Persistence is a prime example of phenotypic heterogeneity, where a microbial population splits into two distinct subpopulations with different growth and survival properties as a result of reversible phenotype switching. Specifically, persister cells grow more slowly than normal cells under unstressed growth conditions, but survive longer under stress conditions such as the treatment with bactericidal antibiotics. We analyze the population dynamics of such a population for several typical experimental scenarios, namely a constant environment, shifts between growth and stress conditions, and periodically switching environments. We use an approximation scheme that allows us to map the dynamics to a logistic equation for the subpopulation ratio and derive explicit analytical expressions for observable quantities that can be used to extract underlying dynamic parameters from experimental data. Our results provide a theoretical underpinning for the study of phenotypic switching, in particular for organisms where detailed mechanistic knowledge is scarce. PMID:23675428

  6. Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David Lamper; Sam Howison; Neil Johnson

    2001-01-01

    The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes

  7. Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population.

    PubMed

    Lamper, D; Howison, S D; Johnson, N F

    2002-01-01

    The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ("extreme events"). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state. PMID:11800987

  8. Dynamic Communicability Predicts Infectiousness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantzaris, Alexander V.; Higham, Desmond J.

    Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network. We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures.

  9. Genomic Predictability of Interconnected Biparental Maize Populations

    PubMed Central

    Riedelsheimer, Christian; Endelman, Jeffrey B.; Stange, Michael; Sorrells, Mark E.; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2013-01-01

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations challenges the design of the training set (TS) in genomic selection (GS). An important open question is how the TS should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small biparental families to predict progeny from individual crosses. Here, we used a set of five interconnected maize (Zea mays L.) populations of doubled-haploid (DH) lines derived from four parents to systematically investigate how the composition of the TS affects the prediction accuracy for lines from individual crosses. A total of 635 DH lines genotyped with 16,741 polymorphic SNPs were evaluated for five traits including Gibberella ear rot severity and three kernel yield component traits. The populations showed a genomic similarity pattern, which reflects the crossing scheme with a clear separation of full sibs, half sibs, and unrelated groups. Prediction accuracies within full-sib families of DH lines followed closely theoretical expectations, accounting for the influence of sample size and heritability of the trait. Prediction accuracies declined by 42% if full-sib DH lines were replaced by half-sib DH lines, but statistically significantly better results could be achieved if half-sib DH lines were available from both instead of only one parent of the validation population. Once both parents of the validation population were represented in the TS, including more crosses with a constant TS size did not increase accuracies. Unrelated crosses showing opposite linkage phases with the validation population resulted in negative or reduced prediction accuracies, if used alone or in combination with related families, respectively. We suggest identifying and excluding such crosses from the TS. Moreover, the observed variability among populations and traits suggests that these uncertainties must be taken into account in models optimizing the allocation of resources in GS. PMID:23535384

  10. Genomic predictability of interconnected biparental maize populations.

    PubMed

    Riedelsheimer, Christian; Endelman, Jeffrey B; Stange, Michael; Sorrells, Mark E; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Melchinger, Albrecht E

    2013-06-01

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations challenges the design of the training set (TS) in genomic selection (GS). An important open question is how the TS should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small biparental families to predict progeny from individual crosses. Here, we used a set of five interconnected maize (Zea mays L.) populations of doubled-haploid (DH) lines derived from four parents to systematically investigate how the composition of the TS affects the prediction accuracy for lines from individual crosses. A total of 635 DH lines genotyped with 16,741 polymorphic SNPs were evaluated for five traits including Gibberella ear rot severity and three kernel yield component traits. The populations showed a genomic similarity pattern, which reflects the crossing scheme with a clear separation of full sibs, half sibs, and unrelated groups. Prediction accuracies within full-sib families of DH lines followed closely theoretical expectations, accounting for the influence of sample size and heritability of the trait. Prediction accuracies declined by 42% if full-sib DH lines were replaced by half-sib DH lines, but statistically significantly better results could be achieved if half-sib DH lines were available from both instead of only one parent of the validation population. Once both parents of the validation population were represented in the TS, including more crosses with a constant TS size did not increase accuracies. Unrelated crosses showing opposite linkage phases with the validation population resulted in negative or reduced prediction accuracies, if used alone or in combination with related families, respectively. We suggest identifying and excluding such crosses from the TS. Moreover, the observed variability among populations and traits suggests that these uncertainties must be taken into account in models optimizing the allocation of resources in GS. PMID:23535384

  11. Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Stefan Rayer; Stanley K. Smith; Jeff Tayman

    2009-01-01

    Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small\\u000a or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing\\u000a statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting\\u000a process, on empirical analyses of past

  12. Predicting fluctuations of reintroduced ibex populations: the importance of density dependence, environmental stochasticity and uncertain population estimates.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Lillegård, Magnar; Grøtan, Vidar; Filli, Flurin; Engen, Steinar

    2007-03-01

    1. Development of population projections requires estimates of observation error, parameters characterizing expected dynamics such as the specific population growth rate and the form of density regulation, the influence of stochastic factors on population dynamics, and quantification of the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. 2. Here we construct a Population Prediction Interval (PPI) based on Bayesian state space modelling of future population growth of 28 reintroduced ibex populations in Switzerland that have been censused for up to 68 years. Our aim is to examine whether the interpopulation variation in the precision of the population projections is related to differences in the parameters characterizing the expected dynamics, in the effects of environmental stochasticity, in the magnitude of uncertainty in the population parameters, or in the observation error. 3. The error in the population censuses was small. The median coefficient of variation in the estimates across populations was 5.1%. 4. Significant density regulation was present in 53.6% of the populations, but was in general weak. 5. The width of the PPI calculated for a period of 5 years showed large variation among populations, and was explained by differences in the impact of environmental stochasticity on population dynamics. 6. In spite of the high accuracy in population estimates, the uncertainty in the parameter estimates was still large. This uncertainty affected the precision in the population predictions, but it decreased with increasing length of study period, mainly due to higher precision in the estimates of the environmental variance in the longer time-series. 7. These analyses reveal that predictions of future population fluctuations of weakly density-regulated populations such as the ibex often become uncertain. Credible population predictions require that this uncertainty is properly quantified. PMID:17302840

  13. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  14. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  15. Optimal prediction in molecular dynamics

    E-print Network

    Benjamin Seibold

    2008-08-22

    Optimal prediction approximates the average solution of a large system of ordinary differential equations by a smaller system. We present how optimal prediction can be applied to a typical problem in the field of molecular dynamics, in order to reduce the number of particles to be tracked in the computations. We consider a model problem, which describes a surface coating process, and show how asymptotic methods can be employed to approximate the high dimensional conditional expectations, which arise in optimal prediction. The thus derived smaller system is compared to the original system in terms of statistical quantities, such as diffusion constants. The comparison is carried out by Monte-Carlo simulations, and it is shown under which conditions optimal prediction yields a valid approximation to the original system.

  16. Dynamic clustering of bacterial population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, Elizabeth P.; Yomo, Tetsuya; Urabe, Itaru

    1994-08-01

    Bacterial cells having the same genotype were observed to split into a few clusters of phenotypes with various levels of enzyme activity. When the mixture of these phenotypically heterogeneous but genotypically homogeneous cells was cultivated in a liquid medium, the distribution of the population size of each cluster of phenotypes showed various kinds of dynamic oscillations. In addition, when this dynamic behavior was examined for the cells of the single colony, various patterns of shifting of homogeneous to heterogeneous lineage and vice versa were observed in the population. The results imply that differentiation of the cells with the same genotype can occur without spatial information and even under the same environment where the cells interact globally without spatial constrait. This interesting phenomenon totally contradicts the conventional biology that the genotype of a cell uniquely determines the phenotype of the cell and its progeny, but is consistent with the theoretical model of cell differentiation presented in the following paper. The sources of discrepancy between the existing theory in molecular biology and our results were discussed and it is concluded that in understanding a complex living system, a simple model consisting of the essence of the complex system can be constructed justifying the observed properties of the molecules in the system which provide free interactions.

  17. Predictive models of battle dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jelinek, Jan

    2001-09-01

    The application of control and game theories to improve battle planning and execution requires models, which allow military strategists and commanders to reliably predict the expected outcomes of various alternatives over a long horizon into the future. We have developed probabilistic battle dynamics models, whose building blocks in the form of Markov chains are derived from the first principles, and applied them successfully in the design of the Model Predictive Task Commander package. This paper introduces basic concepts of our modeling approach and explains the probability distributions needed to compute the transition probabilities of the Markov chains.

  18. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  19. Parental environmental effects and cyclical dynamics in plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, E E

    1997-12-01

    Parental environmental effects have been widely reported in plants, but these effects are often weak relative to direct effects of current environmental conditions. Few studies have asked when consideration of such effects is necessary to understand long-term plant population dynamics. In this article, I show that inclusion of effects of parental density on offspring mass fundamentally changes population dynamics models by making recruitment a function of population size in two previous generations (Nt+1 = f(Nt, Nt-1)), rather than one (Nt+1 = f(Nt,)). Models without parental density effects predict either stable population dynamics or sharp crashes from high to low population size (flip bifurcations). When parental effects are at least one-third the size of direct density effects, gradual cycles from high to low population size (Hopf bifurcations) are possible. In this study, I measured effects of parental and offspring density on offspring quality in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica, by manipulating plant density independently in parent and offspring generations and by comparing the effects of parent and offspring density on offspring performance. Parental density effects were detectable but were noticeably weaker than offspring density effects. Nonetheless, the parental effect was large enough to change population dynamics predictions. Thus, parental effects may be an important component of the numerical dynamics of plant populations. PMID:18811332

  20. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  1. Animal Population Dynamics Jennifer Gervais

    E-print Network

    Gervais, Jennifer

    population growth increase proportionally as a function of the "excess" population Decided it wasn't a "law and biometrician "Discovered" Lotka, collaborated extensively Sought "law" of population growth- and latched onto the logistic equation Major proponent of quantitative demography e.g., "The Biology of Population Growth" Work

  2. Using stage-based system dynamics modeling for demographic management of captive populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lisa J. Faust; Steven D. Thompson; Joanne M. Earnhardt; Ellen Brown; Sadie Ryan; Michelle Sherman; Meghan Yurenka

    2003-01-01

    Management of captive populations relies on a complex synthesis of genetic and demographic analyses to guide populations toward sustainability. Demographic analyses of captive populations currently utilize age-based matrix projections to predict a population's trajectory. An alternate approach is to use a stage-based, system dynamics model for captive systems. Such models can more easily incorporate complex captive systems in which population

  3. Measurement of Population Dynamics in STIRAP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gearba, M. A.; Trachy, M. L.; Veshapidze, G.; Shah, M. H.; Camp, H. A.; Jang, H. U.; Depaola, B. D.

    2007-06-01

    A tremendous amount of work, both theoretical and experimental, has recently been invested in finding efficient coherent excitation techniques to control the population transfer between specified energy states. Measuring the population changes in real time and probing all levels involved during coherent excitation are some of the challenges that most experiments have had to face. Our experiment overcomes these difficulties by employing a modern diagnostic technique, known as Magneto-Optical Trap Recoil Ion Momentum Spectroscopy (MOTRIMS), which makes use of an ion beam as a non-intrusive probe of a three-level rubidium ladder system, coherently excited via the standard STIRAP (stimulated Raman adiabatic passage) method. Several cases are investigated, in which the temporal delay between the two laser pulses is varied, ranging from the so-called counter-intuitive order to the intuitive order. The population dynamics of all three levels involved in the STIRAP process is measured with a resolution of a few nanoseconds. Experimental results are compared with predictions of theory.

  4. Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Erez

    2005-03-01

    Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

  5. Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Paul M. Thompson; Janet C. Ollason

    2001-01-01

    Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top

  6. Noise-driven oscillations in microbial population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Khatri, Bhavin S; Allen, Rosalind J

    2011-01-01

    Microbial populations in the natural environment are likely to experience growth conditions very different from those of a typical laboratory xperiment. In particular, removal rates of biomass and substrate are unlikely to be balanced under realistic environmental conditions. Here, we consider a single population growing on a substrate under conditions where the removal rates of substrate and biomass are not necessarily equal. For a large population, with deterministic growth dynamics, our model predicts that this system can show transient (damped) oscillations. For a small population, demographic noise causes these oscillations to be sustained indefinitely. These oscillations arise when the dynamics of changes in biomass are faster than the dynamics of the substrate, for example, due to a high microbial death rate and/or low substrate flow rates. We show that the same mechanism can produce sustained stochastic oscillations in a two-species, nutrient-cycling microbial ecosystem. Our results suggest that oscil...

  7. Effects of virus on plant fecundity and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Prendeville, Holly R; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Pilson, Diana

    2014-06-01

    Microorganisms are ubiquitous and thought to regulate host populations. Although microorganisms can be pathogenic and affect components of fitness, few studies have examined their effects on wild plant populations. As individual traits might not contribute equally to changes in population growth rate, it is essential to examine the entire life cycle to determine how microorganisms affect host population dynamics. In this study, we used data from common garden experiments with plants from three Cucurbita pepo populations exposed to three virus treatments. These data were used to parameterize a deterministic matrix model, which allowed us to estimate the effect of virus on components of fitness and population growth rate. Virus did not reduce fruit number, but population growth rates varied among virus treatments and wild C. pepo populations. The effect of virus on population growth rate depended on virus species and wild C. pepo population. Contributions of life-history transitions and life-history traits to population growth rates varied among populations and virus treatments. However, this population-virus interaction was not evident when examining individual components of fitness. Thus, caution must be used when interpreting the effects of changes in individual traits, as single traits do not always predict population-level change accurately. PMID:24571200

  8. Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography

    PubMed Central

    Benton, Tim G; Plaistow, Stewart J; Coulson, Tim N

    2006-01-01

    Population dynamics result from the interplay of density-independent and density-dependent processes. Understanding this interplay is important, especially for being able to predict near-term population trajectories for management. In recent years, the study of model systems—experimental, observational and theoretical—has shed considerable light on the way that the both density-dependent and -independent aspects of the environment affect population dynamics via impacting on the organism's life history and therefore demography. These model-based approaches suggest that (i) individuals in different states differ in their demographic performance, (ii) these differences generate structure that can fluctuate independently of current total population size and so can influence the dynamics in important ways, (iii) individuals are strongly affected by both current and past environments, even when the past environments may be in previous generations and (iv) dynamics are typically complex and transient due to environmental noise perturbing complex population structures. For understanding population dynamics of any given system, we suggest that ‘the devil is in the detail’. Experimental dissection of empirical systems is providing important insights into the details of the drivers of demographic responses and therefore dynamics and should also stimulate theory that incorporates relevant biological mechanism. PMID:16720388

  9. Community Evolution Prediction in Dynamic Social Networks

    E-print Network

    Zaiane, Osmar R.

    Community Evolution Prediction in Dynamic Social Networks Mansoureh Takaffoli, Reihaneh Rabbany and customer targeting. Community structure of social networks may undergo different temporal events and transition for communities in dynamic social networks. Our framework incorporates key features related

  10. Population dynamics a source of diversity Zdenek Pospisil

    E-print Network

    Pospí�il, Zdenek

    of population dynamics Models with discrete time Models with continuous time Population dynamics ­ 4 / 18 Thomas Robert Malthus: An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) · The increase of population

  11. Cyclic dynamics of eastern Canadian ermine populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Donald R. Johnson; Bradley J. Swanson; Judith L. Eger

    2000-01-01

    Based on partial autocorrelation analysis, 20 ermine (Mustela erminea) populations in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec demonstrated cyclic dynamics characterized by a latitudinal gradient of decreasing first-order feedback and increasing negativity of second-order feedback. Most of these populations exhibited three cyclic peaks and a 10-year interval of noncyclic dynamics during the sampling period (1915-1940). Changes in ermine density probably reflected those

  12. Chaos and the dynamics of biological populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Robert M. May

    1987-01-01

    As first emphasized in the early 1970s, the nonlinearities that are inherent in simple models for the regulation of plant nad animal populations can lead to chaotic dynamics. This review deals with a variety of instances where chaotic phenomena can arise, particularly in interactions between prey and predators (including hosts and pathogens, hosts and parasitic insects, and harvested populations). Some

  13. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  14. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici epopovic Abstract. It is clear from the study of complex non-linear systems in general, and evolutionary algorithms of understanding how the fitness distribution of an EA population changes over time. 1 Introduction and Background

  15. Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions

    E-print Network

    George Mason University

    Understanding EA Dynamics via Population Fitness Distributions Elena Popovici and Kenneth De Jong population fitness distribution rather than just "best-so-far" curves. But characterizing how repeated fitness landscapes. Our approach is to study empirically derived fitness distributions, both qual

  16. Dynamics of similar populations Geza Meszena1

    E-print Network

    Meszéna, Géza

    Network, IIASA Physical Review Letters, in press #12;ODEs of natural selection Darwin: Evolution is driven of similar populations ­ p.1/1 #12;ODEs of natural selection Darwin: Evolution is driven by population dynamics: dni dt = ri (n1, n2, . . . , nL) ni i = 1, 2, . . . , L ni 0 for losers. Darwin also: Evolution

  17. Population Dynamics on Complex Food Webs

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gian Marco Palamara; Vinko Zlatic; Guido Caldarelli

    2010-01-01

    In this work we analyze the topological and dynamical properties of a simple model of complex food webs, namely the niche model. We describe the system as an oriented weighted graph and we assign a Lotka-Volterra population dynamics on the structure created by the niche model. After this we introduce \\

  18. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  19. Population dynamics during swarming of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

    PubMed Central

    Kamatkar, Nachiket G.; Sarna, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    Swarming is a group motility behavior exhibited by bacteria that coordinate to spread over surfaces. Swarms of the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa often develop tendril patterns and tendril development requires production of the surfactant rhamnolipid. We recently showed that harder surfaces limit induction of quorum sensing genes including those responsible for rhamnolipid synthesis, but it is not yet clear why similar populations of cells should behave differently on hard surfaces compared with soft (agar) surfaces. Here we explore the population dynamics during P. aeruginosa swarming. We find that the population of P. aeruginosa does not immediately increase as the swarm expands. We also detail three stages of population development during swarming. PMID:22446528

  20. Predictive information in a sensory population

    PubMed Central

    Marre, Olivier; Berry, Michael J.; Bialek, William

    2015-01-01

    Guiding behavior requires the brain to make predictions about the future values of sensory inputs. Here, we show that efficient predictive computation starts at the earliest stages of the visual system. We compute how much information groups of retinal ganglion cells carry about the future state of their visual inputs and show that nearly every cell in the retina participates in a group of cells for which this predictive information is close to the physical limit set by the statistical structure of the inputs themselves. Groups of cells in the retina carry information about the future state of their own activity, and we show that this information can be compressed further and encoded by downstream predictor neurons that exhibit feature selectivity that would support predictive computations. Efficient representation of predictive information is a candidate principle that can be applied at each stage of neural computation. PMID:26038544

  1. Predictive information in a sensory population.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Stephanie E; Marre, Olivier; Berry, Michael J; Bialek, William

    2015-06-01

    Guiding behavior requires the brain to make predictions about the future values of sensory inputs. Here, we show that efficient predictive computation starts at the earliest stages of the visual system. We compute how much information groups of retinal ganglion cells carry about the future state of their visual inputs and show that nearly every cell in the retina participates in a group of cells for which this predictive information is close to the physical limit set by the statistical structure of the inputs themselves. Groups of cells in the retina carry information about the future state of their own activity, and we show that this information can be compressed further and encoded by downstream predictor neurons that exhibit feature selectivity that would support predictive computations. Efficient representation of predictive information is a candidate principle that can be applied at each stage of neural computation. PMID:26038544

  2. Song Diversity Predicts the Viability of Fragmented Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laiolo, Paola; Vögeli, Matthias; Serrano, David; Tella, José L.

    2008-01-01

    In the global scenario of increasing habitat fragmentation, finding appropriate indicators of population viability is a priority for conservation. We explored the potential of learned behaviours, specifically acoustic signals, to predict the persistence over time of fragmented bird populations. We found an association between male song diversity and the annual rate of population change, population productivity and population size, resulting in birds singing poor repertoires in populations more prone to extinction. This is the first demonstration that population viability can be predicted by a cultural trait (acquired via social learning). Our results emphasise that cultural attributes can reflect not only individual-level characteristics, but also the emergent population-level properties. This opens the way to the study of animal cultural diversity in the increasingly common human-altered landscapes. PMID:18350158

  3. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  4. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations. PMID:17913126

  5. Cyclic dynamics in simulated plant populations.

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Silke; Berger, Uta; Hildenbrandt, Hanno; Grimm, Volker

    2002-01-01

    Despite the general interest in nonlinear dynamics in animal populations, plant populations are supposed to show a stable equilibrium that is attributed to fundamental differences compared with animals. Some studies find more complex dynamics, but empirical studies usually are too short and most modelling studies ignore important spatial aspects of local competition and establishment. Therefore, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model of a hypothetical, non-clonal perennial to explore which mechanisms might generate complex dynamics, i.e. cycles. The model is based on the field-of-neighbourhood approach that describes local competition and establishment in a phenomenological manner. We found cyclic population dynamics for a wide spectrum of model variants, provided that mortality is determined by local competition and recruitment is virtually completely suppressed within the zone of influence of established plants. This destabilizing effect of local processes within plant populations might have wide-ranging implications for the understanding of plant community dynamics and coexistence. PMID:12495487

  6. Evolutionary dynamics in set structured populations Corina E. Tarnitaa

    E-print Network

    Nowak, Martin A.

    Evolutionary dynamics in set structured populations Corina E. Tarnitaa , Tibor Antala , Hisashi a powerful method to study dynamical population structure: evolutionary set theory. The individuals of popu- lation structure on evolutionary and ecological dynamics. These approaches include spatial models

  7. Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter Turchin

    Most preindustrial states experienced recurrent waves of political collapse and internal warfare. One possible explanation of this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, suggests that population growth leads to state instability and breakdown, which in turn causes population decline. Mathematical models incorporating this mechanism predict sustained oscillations in demographic and political dynamics. Here I test these theoretical predictions with time-series data on

  8. The dynamics of density dependent population models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Guckenheimer; G. Oster; A. Ipaktchi

    1977-01-01

    The dynamics of density-dependent population models can be extraordinarily complex as numerous authors have displayed in numerical simulations. Here we commence a theoretical analysis of the mathematical mechanisms underlying this complexity from the viewpoint of modern dynamical systems theory. After discussing the chaotic behavior of one-dimensional difference equations we proceed to illustrate the general theory on a density-dependent Leslie model

  9. A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots

    E-print Network

    Eddy, Sean

    A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots Elena Rivas describe a dynamic programming algorithm for predicting opti­ mal RNA secondary structure, including structure prediction, pseudoknots, dynamic pro­ gramming, thermodynamic stability. 1 To whom correspondence

  10. (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bryan Grenfell; John Harwood

    1997-01-01

    The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates

  11. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W., Sr.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  12. RESEARCH ARTICLE Connecting phenological predictions with population growth

    E-print Network

    Powell, James

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model

  13. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  14. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  15. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K; Lee, Anna J; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J; Leong, Kam W; You, Lingchong

    2015-08-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution. PMID:26005763

  16. Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Julio M; Stanek, Edward J; Lencina, Viviana B; González, Luz Mery; Li, Wenjun; Martino, Silvina San

    2011-01-01

    We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which point to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors. PMID:22162621

  17. Linking Dynamical and Population Genetic Models of Persistent Viral Infection

    E-print Network

    Kelly, John K.; Williamson, Scott; Orive, Maria E.; Smith, Marilyn S.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-07-01

    This article develops a theoretical framework to link dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection. This linkage is useful because, while the dynamical and population genetic theories have developed ...

  18. Long-time predictions in nonlinear dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szebehely, V.

    1980-01-01

    It is known that nonintegrable dynamical systems do not allow precise predictions concerning their behavior for arbitrary long times. The available series solutions are not uniformly convergent according to Poincare's theorem and numerical integrations lose their meaningfulness after the elapse of arbitrary long times. Two approaches are the use of existing global integrals and statistical methods. This paper presents a generalized method along the first approach. As examples long-time predictions in the classical gravitational satellite and planetary problems are treated.

  19. Reliability of ENSO Dynamical Predictions YOUMIN TANG AND RICHARD KLEEMAN

    E-print Network

    Tang, Youmin

    Reliability of ENSO Dynamical Predictions YOUMIN TANG AND RICHARD KLEEMAN Courant Institute, the authors have explored several important issues relating to ENSO predictability including reliability measures of ENSO dynamical predictions and the dominant precursors that control reliability. It was found

  20. Predicting oculomotor behaviour from correlated populations of posterior parietal neurons

    PubMed Central

    Graf, Arnulf B. A.; Andersen, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    Oculomotor function critically depends on how signals representing saccade direction and eye position are combined across neurons in the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) of the posterior parietal cortex. Here we show that populations of parietal neurons exhibit correlated variability, and that using these interneuronal correlations yields oculomotor predictions that are more accurate and also less uncertain. The structure of LIP population responses is therefore essential for reliable read-out of oculomotor behaviour. PMID:25613525

  1. Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

    PubMed Central

    Legros, Mathieu; Magori, Krisztian; Morrison, Amy C.; Xu, Chonggang; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Background Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization. Methodology/Principal Findings Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons. Conclusions This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation. PMID:21799936

  2. INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY

    E-print Network

    such as the atmosphere and ocean as well as earthquake prediction for which the system can be considered even more non the forecast made. Such behavior is of course characteristic of dynamical systems classified loosely as chaotic can often cause substantial problems for forecasters. It is interesting that the general public often

  3. Field Failure Prediction Using Dynamic Environmental Data

    E-print Network

    also have similar sensors. High-voltage power transformers can be monitored by an automatic dissolvedField Failure Prediction Using Dynamic Environmental Data Yili Hong1 and William Q. Meeker2 1 to varying failure-causing stresses. Some prod- ucts are equipped with sensors and smart chips that measure

  4. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  5. API Requirements for Dynamic Graph Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Gallagher, B; Eliassi-Rad, T

    2006-10-13

    Given a large-scale time-evolving multi-modal and multi-relational complex network (a.k.a., a large-scale dynamic semantic graph), we want to implement algorithms that discover patterns of activities on the graph and learn predictive models of those discovered patterns. This document outlines the application programming interface (API) requirements for fast prototyping of feature extraction, learning, and prediction algorithms on large dynamic semantic graphs. Since our algorithms must operate on large-scale dynamic semantic graphs, we have chosen to use the graph API developed in the CASC Complex Networks Project. This API is supported on the back end by a semantic graph database (developed by Scott Kohn and his team). The advantages of using this API are (i) we have full-control of its development and (ii) the current API meets almost all of the requirements outlined in this document.

  6. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  7. Scaling up population dynamics: integrating theory and data.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Chesson, Peter

    2005-09-01

    How to scale up from local-scale interactions to regional-scale dynamics is a critical issue in field ecology. We show how to implement a systematic approach to the problem of scaling up, using scale transition theory. Scale transition theory shows that dynamics on larger spatial scales differ from predictions based on the local dynamics alone because of an interaction between local-scale nonlinear dynamics and spatial variation in density or the environment. Based on this theory, a systematic approach to scaling up has four steps: (1) derive a model to translate the effects of local dynamics to the regional scale, and to identify key interactions between nonlinearity and spatial variation, (2) measure local-scale model parameters to determine nonlinearities at local scales, (3) measure spatial variation, and (4) combine nonlinearity and variation measures to obtain the scale transition. We illustrate the approach, with an example from benthic stream ecology of caddisflies living in riffles. By sampling from a simulated system, we show how collecting the appropriate data at local (riffle) scales to measure nonlinearities, combined with measures of spatial variation, leads to the correct inference for dynamics at the larger scale of the stream. The approach provides a way to investigate the mechanisms and consequences of changes in population dynamics with spatial scale using a relatively small amount of field data. PMID:15891847

  8. Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Beasley, James C; Olson, Zachary H; Beatty, William S; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008-2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

  9. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation rates observed in our study, localized depopulation may be effective at reducing negative ecological impacts of mesopredators in fragmented landscapes at limited spatial and temporal scales. PMID:23527065

  10. Invertebrate biomarkers: links to toxicosis that predict population decline

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ross V Hyne; William A Maher

    2003-01-01

    The application of biochemical measurements that can be used as individual biomarkers of impaired biological function in invertebrates is reviewed to evaluate whether biochemical biomarkers of aquatic invertebrates can predict changes in natural populations. Biomarkers that measure toxic effects at the molecular level (e.g., the inhibition of brain acetylcholinesterase activity by organophosphorus pesticides) have been shown to provide rapid quantitative

  11. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  12. Population Dynamics and Potential for Biological Control of an Exotic Invasive Shrub in Hawaiian Rainforests

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Saara J. DeWalt

    2006-01-01

    Introduction of biological control agents to reduce the abundance of exotic invasive plant species is often considered necessary but risky. I used matrix projection models to investigate the current population dynamics of Clidemia  hirta (Melastomataceae), an invasive shrub, in two rainforest stands on the island of Hawaii and to predict the efficacy of hypothetical biological control agents in reducing population

  13. A PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN IMPINGEMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of a study to: (1) develop a mathematical model describing fish populations as a function of life process dynamics and facilities that impose additional mortality on fish populations; and (2) improve objective impingement impact prediction. The model acco...

  14. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  15. Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas Günter Preuss; Monika Hammers-Wirtz; Udo Hommen; Mascha Nadine Rubach; Hans Toni Ratte

    2009-01-01

    An individual-based model was developed to predict the population dynamics of Daphnia magna at laboratory conditions from individual life-history traits observed in experiments with different feeding conditions. Within the model, each daphnid passes its individual life cycle including feeding on algae, aging, growing, developing and – when maturity is reached – reproducing. The modelled life cycle is driven by the

  16. Application of optimal prediction to molecular dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Barber IV, John Letherman

    2004-12-01

    Optimal prediction is a general system reduction technique for large sets of differential equations. In this method, which was devised by Chorin, Hald, Kast, Kupferman, and Levy, a projection operator formalism is used to construct a smaller system of equations governing the dynamics of a subset of the original degrees of freedom. This reduced system consists of an effective Hamiltonian dynamics, augmented by an integral memory term and a random noise term. Molecular dynamics is a method for simulating large systems of interacting fluid particles. In this thesis, I construct a formalism for applying optimal prediction to molecular dynamics, producing reduced systems from which the properties of the original system can be recovered. These reduced systems require significantly less computational time than the original system. I initially consider first-order optimal prediction, in which the memory and noise terms are neglected. I construct a pair approximation to the renormalized potential, and ignore three-particle and higher interactions. This produces a reduced system that correctly reproduces static properties of the original system, such as energy and pressure, at low-to-moderate densities. However, it fails to capture dynamical quantities, such as autocorrelation functions. I next derive a short-memory approximation, in which the memory term is represented as a linear frictional force with configuration-dependent coefficients. This allows the use of a Fokker-Planck equation to show that, in this regime, the noise is {delta}-correlated in time. This linear friction model reproduces not only the static properties of the original system, but also the autocorrelation functions of dynamical variables.

  17. Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

    PubMed Central

    Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

    2010-01-01

    Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

  18. Dynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma

    E-print Network

    Krings, Axel W.

    ], Goldberg (1989) [3], already studied the population sizing issues from the very beginning of EC. WhatDynamic Populations in Genetic Algorithms Zhanshan (Sam) Ma University of Idaho Computer Science. Moscow, ID 83843, USA krings@cs.uidaho.edu ABSTRACT Biological populations are dynamic in both space

  19. Statistical Prediction and Molecular Dynamics Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Cooke, Ben; Schmidler, Scott C.

    2008-01-01

    We describe a statistical approach to the validation and improvement of molecular dynamics simulations of macromolecules. We emphasize the use of molecular dynamics simulations to calculate thermodynamic quantities that may be compared to experimental measurements, and the use of a common set of energetic parameters across multiple distinct molecules. We briefly review relevant results from the theory of stochastic processes and discuss the monitoring of convergence to equilibrium, the obtaining of confidence intervals for summary statistics corresponding to measured quantities, and an approach to validation and improvement of simulations based on out-of-sample prediction. We apply these methods to replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations of a set of eight helical peptides under the AMBER potential using implicit solvent. We evaluate the ability of these simulations to quantitatively reproduce experimental helicity measurements obtained by circular dichroism. In addition, we introduce notions of statistical predictive estimation for force-field parameter refinement. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters of the potential, and introduce Bayesian updating of these parameters. We demonstrate the effect of parameter updating applied to the internal dielectric constant parameter on the out-of-sample prediction accuracy as measured by cross-validation. PMID:18676654

  20. Population Based Reweighting of Scaled Molecular Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulation using enhanced sampling methods is one of the powerful computational tools used to explore protein conformations and free energy landscapes. Enhanced sampling methods often employ either an increase in temperature or a flattening of the potential energy surface to rapidly sample phase space, and a corresponding reweighting algorithm is used to recover the Boltzmann statistics. However, potential energies of complex biomolecules usually involve large fluctuations on a magnitude of hundreds of kcal/mol despite minimal structural changes during simulation. This leads to noisy reweighting statistics and complicates the obtainment of accurate final results. To overcome this common issue in enhanced conformational sampling, we propose a scaled molecular dynamics method, which modifies the biomolecular potential energy surface and employs a reweighting scheme based on configurational populations. Statistical mechanical theory is applied to derive the reweighting formula, and the canonical ensemble of simulated structures is recovered accordingly. Test simulations on alanine dipeptide and the fast folding polypeptide Chignolin exhibit sufficiently enhanced conformational sampling and accurate recovery of free energy surfaces and thermodynamic properties. The results are comparable to long conventional molecular dynamics simulations and exhibit better recovery of canonical statistics over methods which employ a potential energy term in reweighting. PMID:23721224

  1. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  2. Modeling Population Dynamics Andre M. de Roos

    E-print Network

    Roos, André M. de

    -sexes population growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.6 Parameters and state variables.1 Describing a population and its environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.1.1 The population or p-state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.5.1 Exponential population growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2

  3. Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eric Post; Mads C. Forchhammer

    2002-01-01

    The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic

  4. Evolution of complex dynamics in spatially structured populations

    E-print Network

    Doebeli, Michael

    Evolution of complex dynamics in spatially structured populations Karin Johst1* , Michael Doebeli2 to equilibrium population dynamics. Here we show that this is not true in spatially structured ecological models, Department of Community Ecology,Theodor^Leiser Strasse 4, D-06120 Halle, Germany (larus@oesa.ufz.de) Dynamics

  5. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Method Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. Results During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). Conclusions In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance. PMID:26186332

  6. The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John F. McLaughlin; Jessica J. Hellmann; Carol L. Boggs; Paul R. Ehrlich

    2002-01-01

    We compare results of field study and model analysis of two butterfly populations to evaluate the importance of alternative mechanisms causing changes in abundance. Although understanding and predicting population fluctuations is a central goal of population ecology, it is not often achieved because long-term abundance data are available for few populations in which mechanisms causing fluctuations also are known. Both

  7. Within and between population variation in plant traits predicts ecosystem functions associated with a dominant plant species.

    PubMed

    Breza, Lauren C; Souza, Lara; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T

    2012-06-01

    Linking intraspecific variation in plant traits to ecosystem carbon uptake may allow us to better predict how shift in populations shape ecosystem function. We investigated whether plant populations of a dominant old-field plant species (Solidago altissima) differed in carbon dynamics and if variation in plant traits among genotypes and between populations predicted carbon dynamics. We established a common garden experiment with 35 genotypes from three populations of S. altissima from either Tennessee (southern populations) or Connecticut (northern populations) to ask whether: (1) southern and northern Solidago populations will differ in aboveground productivity, leaf area, flowering time and duration, and whole ecosystem carbon uptake, (2) intraspecific trait variation (growth and reproduction) will be related to intraspecific variation in gross ecosystem CO(2) exchange (GEE) and net ecosystem CO(2) exchange (NEE) within and between northern and southern populations. GEE and NEE were 4.8× and 2× greater in southern relative to northern populations. Moreover, southern populations produced 13× more aboveground biomass and 1.4× more inflorescence mass than did northern populations. Flowering dynamics (first- and last-day flowering and flowering duration) varied significantly among genotypes in both the southern and northern populations, but plant performance and ecosystem function did not. Both productivity and inflorescence mass predicted NEE and GEE between S. altissima southern and northern populations. Taken together, our data demonstrate that variation between S. altissima populations in performance and flowering traits are strong predictors of ecosystem function in a dominant old-field species and suggest that populations of the same species might differ substantially in their response to environmental perturbations. PMID:22833791

  8. Within and between population variation in plant traits predicts ecosystem functions associated with a dominant plant species

    PubMed Central

    Breza, Lauren C; Souza, Lara; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T

    2012-01-01

    Linking intraspecific variation in plant traits to ecosystem carbon uptake may allow us to better predict how shift in populations shape ecosystem function. We investigated whether plant populations of a dominant old-field plant species (Solidago altissima) differed in carbon dynamics and if variation in plant traits among genotypes and between populations predicted carbon dynamics. We established a common garden experiment with 35 genotypes from three populations of S. altissima from either Tennessee (southern populations) or Connecticut (northern populations) to ask whether: (1) southern and northern Solidago populations will differ in aboveground productivity, leaf area, flowering time and duration, and whole ecosystem carbon uptake, (2) intraspecific trait variation (growth and reproduction) will be related to intraspecific variation in gross ecosystem CO2 exchange (GEE) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) within and between northern and southern populations. GEE and NEE were 4.8× and 2× greater in southern relative to northern populations. Moreover, southern populations produced 13× more aboveground biomass and 1.4× more inflorescence mass than did northern populations. Flowering dynamics (first- and last-day flowering and flowering duration) varied significantly among genotypes in both the southern and northern populations, but plant performance and ecosystem function did not. Both productivity and inflorescence mass predicted NEE and GEE between S. altissima southern and northern populations. Taken together, our data demonstrate that variation between S. altissima populations in performance and flowering traits are strong predictors of ecosystem function in a dominant old-field species and suggest that populations of the same species might differ substantially in their response to environmental perturbations. PMID:22833791

  9. Modeling oyster populations. V. Declining phytoplankton stocks and the population dynamics of American oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Eric N. Powell; John M. Klinck; Eileen E. Hofmann; Elizabeth A. Wilson-Ormond; Matthew S. Ellis

    1995-01-01

    Phytoplankton standing stocks have shown a steady decline in Galveston Bay, Texas over the last 20 years. Phytoplankton provides the primary food resource for oyster populations in Galveston Bay. We used a time-dependent population dynamics model of oyster populations to examine the impact of a decline in phytoplankton stocks on oyster populations. Simulations were run with two different types of

  10. Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the relationship between population dynamics and economic growth. Prior to the Industrial Revolution increases in total output were roughly matched by increases in population. In contrast, during the last 150 years, incre- ments in per capita income have coexisted with slow population growth. Why are income and population growth no longer positively correlated? This paper presents a

  11. THE POPULATION OF HELIUM-MERGER PROGENITORS: OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Fryer, Chris L. [CCS Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)] [CCS Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Belczynski, Krzysztof; Bulik, Tomasz [Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw (Poland)] [Astronomical Observatory, University of Warsaw, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw (Poland); Berger, Edo [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)] [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Thoene, Christina [IAA-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomia s/n, E-18008 Granada (Spain)] [IAA-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomia s/n, E-18008 Granada (Spain); Ellinger, Carola [Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, 502 Yates Street, Box 19059, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)] [Department of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, 502 Yates Street, Box 19059, Arlington, TX 76019 (United States)

    2013-02-20

    The helium-merger gamma-ray burst (GRB) progenitor is produced by the rapid accretion onto a compact remnant (neutron star or black hole) when it undergoes a common envelope inspiral with its companion's helium core. This merger phase produces a very distinct environment around these outbursts and recent observations suggest that, in some cases, we are detecting the signatures of the past merger in the GRB afterglow. These observations allow us, for the first time, to study the specific features of the helium-merger progenitor. In this paper, we couple population synthesis calculations to our current understanding of GRB engines and common envelope evolution to make observational predictions for the helium-merger GRB population. Many mergers do not produce GRB outbursts and we discuss the implications of these mergers with the broader population of astrophysical transients.

  12. Mapping Genes that Predict Treatment Outcome in Admixed Populations

    PubMed Central

    Baye, Tesfaye M.; Wilke, Russell A.

    2010-01-01

    There is great interest in characterizing the genetic architecture underlying drug response. For many drugs, gene-based dosing models explain a considerable amount of the overall variation in treatment outcome. As such, prescription drug labels are increasingly being modified to contain pharmacogenetic information. Genetic data must, however, be interpreted within the context of relevant clinical covariates. Even the most predictive models improve with the addition of data related to biogeographical ancestry. The current review explores analytical strategies that leverage population structure to more fully characterize genetic determinants of outcome in large clinical practice-based cohorts. The success of this approach will depend upon several key factors: (1) the availability of outcome data from groups of admixed individuals (i.e., populations recombined over multiple generations), (2) a measurable difference in treatment outcome (i.e., efficacy and toxicity endpoints), and (3) a measurable difference in allele frequency between the ancestral populations. PMID:20921971

  13. Predicting Random Effects with an Expanded Finite Population Mixed Model.

    PubMed

    Stanek, Edward J; Singer, Julio M

    2008-10-01

    Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer (JASA, 2004) developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. PMID:19802323

  14. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  15. Dynamics of neural populations: stability and synchrony.

    PubMed

    Sirovich, Lawrence; Omurtag, Ahmet; Lubliner, Kip

    2006-03-01

    A population formulation of neuronal activity is employed to study an excitatory network of (spiking) neurons receiving external input as well as recurrent feedback. At relatively low levels of feedback, the network exhibits time stationary asynchronous behavior. A stability analysis of this time stationary state leads to an analytical criterion for the critical gain at which time asynchronous behavior becomes unstable. At instability the dynamics can undergo a supercritical Hopf bifurcation and the population passes to a synchronous state. Under different conditions it can pass to synchrony through a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. And at high gain a network can reach a runaway state, in finite time, after which the network no longer supports bounded solutions. The introduction of time delayed feedback leads to a rich range of phenomena. For example, for a given external input, increasing gain produces transition from asynchrony, to synchrony, to asynchrony and finally can lead to divergence. Time delay is also shown to strongly mollify the amplitude of synchronous oscillations. Perhaps, of general importance, is the result that synchronous behavior can exist only for a narrow range of time delays, which range is an order of magnitude smaller than periods of oscillation. PMID:16613792

  16. From Neural Responses to Population Behavior: Neural Focus Group Predicts Population-Level Media Effects

    PubMed Central

    Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Lieberman, Matthew D.

    2013-01-01

    Can neural responses of a small group of individuals predict the behavior of large-scale populations? In this investigation, brain activations were recorded while smokers viewed three different television campaigns promoting the National Cancer Institute’s telephone hotline to help smokers quit (1-800-QUIT-NOW). The smokers also provided self-report predictions of the campaigns’ relative effectiveness. Population measures of the success of each campaign were computed by comparing call volume to 1-800-QUIT-NOW in the month before and the month after the launch of each campaign. This approach allowed us to directly compare the predictive value of self-reports with neural predictors of message effectiveness. Neural activity in a medial prefrontal region of interest, previously associated with individual behavior change, predicted the population response, whereas self-report judgments did not. This finding suggests a novel way of connecting neural signals to population responses that has not been previously demonstrated and provides information that may be difficult to obtain otherwise. PMID:22510393

  17. Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

    2011-02-01

    Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics. PMID:21460557

  18. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-01-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks. PMID:20815617

  19. Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.

    PubMed

    Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry

    2011-04-01

    Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects. PMID:20880886

  20. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, D.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  1. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species. PMID:25360620

  2. Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulators of population sizes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jaime Mena-Lorcat; Herbert W. Hethcote

    1992-01-01

    Five SIRS epidemiological models for populations of varying size are considered. The incidences of infection are given by mass action terms involving the number of infectives and either the number of susceptibles or the fraction of the population which is susceptible. When the population dynamics are immigration and deaths, thresholds are found which determine whether the disease dies out or

  3. A Nonlinear Age and Maturity Structured Model of Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Janet Dyson; Rosanna Villella-Bressan; Glenn Webb

    2000-01-01

    A nonlinear model of age and maturity structured population dynamics is analyzed. The population is structured by age and maturity of the individuals and the nonlinearity in the equations corresponds to density dependent limitation of population growth. The existence and asymptotic behavior of solutions are studied.

  4. Topology dynamics and routing for predictable mobile networks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniel Fischer; David Basin; Thomas Engel

    2008-01-01

    Predictable mobile networks are dynamic in terms of the mobility and connectivity of the network nodes. However, in contrast to mobile ad-hoc networks, their dynamics are mostly predictable, as the name suggests. Currently, no adequate topology model exists for such networks. Moreover, routing protocols based on either static or mobile ad-hoc topology models do not exploit this predictability and thus

  5. Topology Dynamics and Routing for Predictable Mobile Networks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniel Fischer; David Basin; Thomas Engel

    2009-01-01

    Predictable mobile networks are dynamic in terms of the mobility and connectivity of the network nodes. However, in contrast to mobile ad-hoc networks, their dynamics are mostly predictable, as the name suggests. Currently, no adequate topology model exists for such networks. Moreover, routing protocols based on either static or mobile ad-hoc topology models do not exploit this predictability and thus

  6. Arthropod population and community dynamics in turfgrass 

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yong

    1998-01-01

    Non-target arthropod and nematode populations in ographics. fungal and nematode treated bermudagrass were contrasted with populations in a chlorpyrifos and an untreated control treatment. Fifty-five arthropod families or suborder, herein referred...

  7. Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations

    PubMed Central

    Caudron, Q.; Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Gottfreðsson, M.; Viboud, C.; Cliff, A. D.; Grenfell, B. T.

    2015-01-01

    A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction–recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations. PMID:25411411

  8. Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Ranta, E; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Laakso, J

    2000-01-01

    Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise. PMID:11052535

  9. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  10. Modelling Food and Population Dynamics in Honey Bee Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Barron, Andrew B.; Myerscough, Mary R.

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  11. Population Dynamics of Biocontrol Agents and Pathogens in Soils and Rhizospheres

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. C. Paulitz

    2000-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics between a pathogen and a biocontrol agent (BCA) in soil or in an infection court such as the rhizosphere is crucial for predicting the success of biological control. This is especially true for biological control using the strategy of reduction of initial inoculum prior to infection. By studying the population density fluxes over time, one can observe

  12. Developing methods to assess and predict the population level effects of environmental contaminants.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Springman, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies--assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants--moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

  13. The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

    PubMed

    Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

    2015-07-01

    Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. PMID:25914143

  14. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  15. Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo.

    PubMed

    Gorsich, Erin E; Ezenwa, Vanessa O; Cross, Paul C; Bengis, Roy G; Jolles, Anna E

    2015-07-01

    Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, the bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic infections and abortions in wild and domestic ungulates, but its impact on population dynamics is not well understood. We report infection patterns and fitness correlates of bovine brucellosis in African buffalo based on (1) 7 years of cross-sectional disease surveys and (2) a 4-year longitudinal study in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We then used a matrix population model to translate these observed patterns into predicted population-level effects. Annual brucellosis seroprevalence ranged from 8·7% (95% CI = 1·8-15·6) to 47·6% (95% CI = 35·1-60·1) increased with age until adulthood (>6) and varied by location within KNP. Animals were on average in worse condition after testing positive for brucellosis (F = -5·074, P < 0·0001), and infection was associated with a 2·0 (95% CI = 1·1-3·7) fold increase in mortality (?(2)  = 2·039, P = 0·036). Buffalo in low body condition were associated with lower reproductive success (F = 2·683, P = 0·034), but there was no association between brucellosis and pregnancy or being observed with a calf. For the range of body condition scores observed in the population, the model-predicted growth rate was ? = 1·11 (95% CI = 1·02-1·21) in herds without brucellosis and ? = 1·00 (95% CI = 0·85-1·16) when brucellosis seroprevalence was 30%. Our results suggest that brucellosis infection can potentially result in reduced population growth rates, but because these effects varied with demographic and environmental conditions, they may remain unseen without intensive, longitudinal monitoring. PMID:25714466

  16. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. PMID:23306058

  17. Predicting NCLEX-RN success in a diverse student population.

    PubMed

    Alameida, Marshall D; Prive, Alice; Davis, Harvey C; Landry, Lynette; Renwanz-Boyle, Andrea; Dunham, Michelle

    2011-05-01

    Many schools of nursing have implemented standardized testing using platforms such as those developed by Assessment Technologies Institute (ATI) to better prepare students for success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses® (NCLEX-RN). This study extends and replicates the research on standardized testing to predict first-time pass success in a diverse student population and across two prelicensure program types. The final sample consisted of 589 students who graduated between 2003 and 2009. Demographic data, as well as academic performance and scores on the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor, were analyzed. The findings in this study indicate that scores on the ATI RN Comprehensive Predictor were positively, significantly associated with first-time pass success. Students in jeopardy of failing the NCLEX-RN on their first attempt can be identified prior to graduation and remediation efforts can be strengthened to improve their success. PMID:21366169

  18. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  19. Carry-over effects, sequential density dependence and the dynamics of populations in a seasonal environment

    PubMed Central

    Betini, Gustavo S.; Griswold, Cortland K.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Most animal populations have distinct breeding and non-breeding periods, yet the implications of seasonality on population dynamics are not well understood. Here, we introduce an experimental model system to study the population dynamics of two important consequences of seasonality: sequential density dependence and carry-over effects (COEs). Using a replicated seasonal population of Drosophila, we placed individuals at four densities in the non-breeding season and then, among those that survived, placed them to breed at three different densities. We show that COEs arising from variation in non-breeding density negatively impacts individual performance by reducing per capita breeding output by 29–77%, implying that non-lethal COEs can have a strong influence on population abundance. We then parametrized a bi-seasonal population model from the experimental results, and show that both sequential density dependence and COEs can stabilize long-term population dynamics and that COEs can reduce population size at low intrinsic rates of growth. Our results have important implications for predicting the successful colonization of new habitats, and for understanding the long-term persistence of seasonal populations in a wide range of taxa, including migratory organisms. PMID:23516241

  20. Real-time prediction of neuronal population spiking activity using FPGA.

    PubMed

    Li, Will X Y; Cheung, Ray C C; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W

    2013-08-01

    A field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based hardware architecture is proposed and utilized for prediction of neuronal population firing activity. The hardware system adopts the multi-input multi-output (MIMO) generalized Laguerre-Volterra model (GLVM) structure to describe the nonlinear dynamic neural process of mammalian brain and can switch between the two important functions: estimation of GLVM coefficients and prediction of neuronal population spiking activity (model outputs). The model coefficients are first estimated using the in-sample training data; then the output is predicted using the out-of-sample testing data and the field estimated coefficients. Test results show that compared with previous software implementation of the generalized Laguerre-Volterra algorithm running on an Intel Core i7-2620M CPU, the FPGA-based hardware system can achieve up to 2.66×10(3) speedup in doing model parameters estimation and 698.84 speedup in doing model output prediction. The proposed hardware platform will facilitate research on the highly nonlinear neural process of the mammal brain, and the cognitive neural prosthesis design. PMID:23893208

  1. Population dynamics of cancer cells with cell state conversions

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Da; Wu, Dingming; Li, Zhe; Qian, Minping; Zhang, Michael Q.

    2015-01-01

    Cancer stem cell (CSC) theory suggests a cell-lineage structure in tumor cells in which CSCs are capable of giving rise to the other non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs) but not vice versa. However, an alternative scenario of bidirectional interconversions between CSCs and NSCCs was proposed very recently. Here we present a general population model of cancer cells by integrating conventional cell divisions with direct conversions between different cell states, namely, not only can CSCs differentiate into NSCCs by asymmetric cell division, NSCCs can also dedifferentiate into CSCs by cell state conversion. Our theoretical model is validated when applying the model to recent experimental data. It is also found that the transient increase in CSCs proportion initiated from the purified NSCCs subpopulation cannot be well predicted by the conventional CSC model where the conversion from NSCCs to CSCs is forbidden, implying that the cell state conversion is required especially for the transient dynamics. The theoretical analysis also gives the condition such that our general model can be equivalently reduced into a simple Markov chain with only cell state transitions keeping the same cell proportion dynamics.

  2. Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey.

    PubMed

    Barraquand, Frédéric; New, Leslie F; Redpath, Stephen; Matthiopoulos, Jason

    2015-08-01

    We develop a theory of generalist predation showing how alternative prey species are affected by changes in both mean abundance and variability (coefficient of variation) of their predator's primary prey. The theory is motivated by the indirect effects of cyclic rodent populations on ground-breeding birds, and developed through progressive analytic simplifications of an empirically-based model. It applies nonetheless to many other systems where primary prey have fast life-histories and can become superabundant, thus facilitating impact on alternative prey species and generating highly asymmetric interactions. Our results suggest that predator effects on alternative prey should generally decrease with mean primary prey abundance, and increase with primary prey variability (low to high CV)-unless predators have strong aggregative responses, in which case these results can be reversed. Approximations of models including predator dynamics (general numerical response with possible delays) confirm these results but further suggest that negative temporal correlation between predator and primary prey is harmful to alternative prey. Finally, we find that measurements of predator numerical responses are crucial to predict-even qualitatively-the response of ecosystems to changes in the dynamics of outbreaking prey species. PMID:25930160

  3. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  4. Invited Talk: Dynamical Evolution of Multiple-Population Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico

    2015-05-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric studies have provided strong evidence of the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters and raised many fundamental questions concerning the formation and dynamical evolution of these stellar systems. After a brief review of the main observational studies, I will present the results of theoretical investigations exploring a number of aspects of the internal dynamics of multiple-population clusters and their formation history.

  5. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  6. Wolbachia infections that reduce immature insect survival: Predicted impacts on population replacement

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The evolutionary success of Wolbachia bacteria, infections of which are widespread in invertebrates, is largely attributed to an ability to manipulate host reproduction without imposing substantial fitness costs. Here, we describe a stage-structured model with deterministic immature lifestages and a stochastic adult female lifestage. Simulations were conducted to better understand Wolbachia invasions into uninfected host populations. The model includes conventional Wolbachia parameters (the level of cytoplasmic incompatibility, maternal inheritance, the relative fecundity of infected females, and the initial Wolbachia infection frequency) and a new parameter termed relative larval viability (RLV), which is the survival of infected larvae relative to uninfected larvae. Results The results predict the RLV parameter to be the most important determinant for Wolbachia invasion and establishment. Specifically, the fitness of infected immature hosts must be close to equal to that of uninfected hosts before population replacement can occur. Furthermore, minute decreases in RLV inhibit the invasion of Wolbachia despite high levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility, maternal inheritance, and low adult fitness costs. Conclusions The model described here takes a novel approach to understanding the spread of Wolbachia through a population with explicit dynamics. By combining a stochastic female adult lifestage and deterministic immature/adult male lifestages, the model predicts that even those Wolbachia infections that cause minor decreases in immature survival are unlikely to invade and spread within the host population. The results are discussed in relation to recent theoretical and empirical studies of natural population replacement events and proposed applied research, which would use Wolbachia as a tool to manipulate insect populations. PMID:21975225

  7. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  8. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  9. Population dynamics of grey partridge (Perdix perdix) in northern Italy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniela Montagna; Alberto Meriggi

    1991-01-01

    Population dynamics of grey partridge was studied from 1982 to 1986 in northern Italy in order to evaluate fluctuations in density and the relationships between population parameters and climatic factors. The general trend was a clear decrease both in spring and summer density after 1984, weighting 34.6% and 22.2% respec tively, mainly due to severe winters. The reproductive success and

  10. Some problems in the study of population dynamics of zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Riccardo De Bernardi

    1979-01-01

    Some recent results on ecology and population dynamics in fresh water filter feeding zooplankton are presented.The difficulty in interpreting field experimental results led us to analyze some of the relevant biotic and abiotic population interactions under laboratory conditions.The aim of these experiments was to arrive at a phenomenology that might help in interpreting field results and in furnishing a reliable

  11. Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine-Banded Armadillos

    E-print Network

    Loughry, Jim

    Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine- Banded Armadillos William J. Loughry1 *, Carolina. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine

  12. Transoceanic Migration, Spatial Dynamics, and Population Linkages of White Sharks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ramón Bonfil; Michael Meÿer; Michael C. Scholl; Ryan Johnson; Shannon O'Brien; Herman Oosthuizen; Stephan Swanson; Deon Kotze; Michael Paterson

    2005-01-01

    The large-scale spatial dynamics and population structure of marine top predators are poorly known. We present electronic tag and photographic identification data showing a complex suite of behavioral patterns in white sharks. These include coastal return migrations and the fastest known transoceanic return migration among swimming fauna, which provide direct evidence of a link between widely separated populations in South

  13. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  14. Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Zinner, B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

  15. Evolutionary games and population dynamics: maintenance of cooperation in public goods games

    PubMed Central

    Hauert, Christoph; Holmes, Miranda; Doebeli, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The emergence and abundance of cooperation in nature poses a tenacious and challenging puzzle to evolutionary biology. Cooperative behaviour seems to contradict Darwinian evolution because altruistic individuals increase the fitness of other members of the population at a cost to themselves. Thus, in the absence of supporting mechanisms, cooperation should decrease and vanish, as predicted by classical models for cooperation in evolutionary game theory, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma and public goods games. Traditional approaches to studying the problem of cooperation assume constant population sizes and thus neglect the ecology of the interacting individuals. Here, we incorporate ecological dynamics into evolutionary games and reveal a new mechanism for maintaining cooperation. In public goods games, cooperation can gain a foothold if the population density depends on the average population payoff. Decreasing population densities, due to defection leading to small payoffs, results in smaller interaction group sizes in which cooperation can be favoured. This feedback between ecological dynamics and game dynamics can generate stable coexistence of cooperators and defectors in public goods games. However, this mechanism fails for pairwise Prisoner's Dilemma interactions and the population is driven to extinction. Our model represents natural extension of replicator dynamics to populations of varying densities. PMID:16959650

  16. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  17. POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an

    E-print Network

    POPULATION ECOLOGY Population Dynamics of the Colorado Potato Beetle in an Agroecosystem. Colorado potato beetle immigrated into both crops. The Þrst available crop had the earliest immigration of magnitude. Survivorship varied more between years than between crops. Colorado potato beetle did

  18. Predictions of a population of cataclysmic variables in globular clusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Di Stefano, R.; Rappaport, S.

    1994-01-01

    We have studied the number of cataclysmic variables (CVs) that should be active in globular clusters during the present epoch as a result of binary formation via two-body tidal capture. We predict the orbital period and luminosity distributions of CVs in globular clusters. The results arebased on Monte Carlo simulations combined with evolution calculations appropriate to each system formed during the lifetime of two specific globular clusters, omega Cen and 47 Tuc. From our study of these two clusters, which represent the range of core densities and states of mass segregation that are likely to be interesting, we extrapolate our results to the Galactic globlular cluster system. Although there is at present little direct observational evidence of CVs in globular clusters, we find that there should be a large number of active systems. We predict that there should be more than approximately 100 CVs in both 47 Tuc and omega Cen and several thousand in the Galactic globular cluster system. These numbers are based on two-body processes alone and represent a lower bound on the number of systems that may have been formed as a result of stellar interaction within globular clusters. The relation between these calculations and the paucity of optically detected CVs in globular clusters is discussed. Should future observations fail to find convincing evidence of a substantial population of cluster CVs, then the two-body tidal capture scenario is likely to be seriously constrained. Of the CVs we espect in 47 Tuc and omega Cen, approximately 45 and 20, respectively, should have accretion luminosities above 10(exp 33) ergs/s. If one utilizes a relation for converting accretion luminosity to hard X-ray luminosity that is based on observations of Galactic plane CVs, even these sources will not exhibit X-ray luminosities above 10(exp 33) ergs/s. While we cannot account directly for the most luminous subset of the low-luminosity globular cluster X-ray sources without assuming an evolutionary pattern that is different from that of the majority of CVs in the disk, we are able to account for all of the observed lower luminosity subset of these sources, many of which have been recently discovered through ROSAT observations. In order for our predicted integrated cluster X-ray luminosities to be consistent with observational upper limits, the relation between accretion and X-ray luminosities should be something like that inferred from the Galactic plane population of CVs. Our calculations predict a large number of systems with L(sub acc) is less than 10(exp 32) ergs/s. Although our calculations imply that globular clusters should have an enhancement of CVs relative to the number thought to be present in the Galactic disk, this enhancement is at most roughly an order of magnitude, not comparable to the factor of approximately 100 for low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs).

  19. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  20. Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Berger, Kim Murray; Conner, Mary M

    2008-04-01

    Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by moving beyond estimating changes in vital rates to analyses of population-level impacts. PMID:18488620

  1. The Population of Mars-Crossers: Classification and Dynamical Evolution

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Patrick Michel; Fabbio Migliorini; Alessandro Morbidelli; Vincenzo Zappalà

    2000-01-01

    Recent dynamical results (Gladman et al. 1997. Dynamical lifetimes of objects injected into asteroid belt resonances. Science277, 197–201) have pointed out that the bodies injected by collisions into the main resonances of the asteroid belt could not sustain the observed population of Earth-crossers of large diameter. In this paper, we present our numerical exploration of the dynamical evolution of Mars-crosser

  2. A model of stem cell population dynamics: in silico analysis and in vivo validation

    PubMed Central

    Setty, Yaki; Dalfó, Diana; Korta, Dorota Z.; Hubbard, E. Jane Albert; Kugler, Hillel

    2012-01-01

    The proper renewal and maintenance of tissues by stem cell populations is simultaneously influenced by anatomical constraints, cell proliferation dynamics and cell fate specification. However, their relative influence is difficult to examine in vivo. To address this difficulty we built, as a test case, a cell-centered state-based computational model of key behaviors that govern germline development in C. elegans, and used it to drive simulations of cell population dynamics under a variety of perturbations. Our analysis provided unexpected possible explanations for laboratory observations, including certain ‘all-or-none’ phenotypes and complex differentiation patterns. The simulations also offered insights into niche-association dynamics and the interplay between cell cycle and cell fate. Subsequent experiments validated several predictions generated by the simulations. Notably, we found that early cell cycle defects influence later maintenance of the progenitor cell population. This general modeling approach is potentially applicable to other stem cell systems. PMID:22147952

  3. VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS

    E-print Network

    Rakha, Hesham A.

    VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS by Hesham Rakha1 , Member, Setti, and Van Aerde 2 ABSTRACT The paper presents a simple vehicle dynamics model for estimating and deceleration behavior contradicts basic vehicle dynamics. It is not clear at this point if this difference

  4. Dynamic network structure identification with prediction error methods -basic

    E-print Network

    Van den Hof, Paul

    Dynamic network structure identification with prediction error methods - basic examples Arne G important in different fields of science. When identifying the structure and dynamics of a network dynamics) in a sys- tem/measurement/excitation structure that is clearly well defined a priori. One knows

  5. Dynamic network structure identification with prediction error methods -basic

    E-print Network

    Van den Hof, Paul

    Dynamic network structure identification with prediction error methods - basic examples Arne G important in different fields of science. When identifying the structure and dynamics of a network (and possibly noise dynamics) in a sys- tem/measurement/excitation structure that is clearly well

  6. Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    JEROEN C. J. M. VAN DEN BERGH and PIET RIETVELD (; )

    2004-03-01

    This peer-reviewed article from BioScience journal is on the topic of population growth. We performed a meta-analysis on the basis of 69 past studies that have assessed a limit to the world population. The estimates of this limit range from 0.5 billion to 1 1021 billion people. A meta-analysis allows us to see what overall picture emerges when different methods, limiting factors, levels of aggregation, and data are taken into account. Limiting factors for the world population include water availability, energy, carbon, forest products, nonrenewable resources, heat removal, photosynthetic capacity, and the availability of land for food production. Methods employed in the population studies include spatial extrapolation, modeling of multiple regions, temporal extrapolation, actual supply of a resource, hypothetical modeling, and dynamic systems modeling. Many studies rely on important assumptions about the level of technology, the energy intake per person, and the available arable land. The meta-analysis employs both descriptive statistics and regression analysis. We used the findings of these analyses to propose a number of meta-estimates of limits to world population. When taking all studies into account, the best point estimate is 7.7 billion people; the lower and upper bounds, given current technology, are 0.65 billion and 98 billion people, respectively. We offer a range of other conditional estimates as well. An important conclusion of this study is that recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit.

  7. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators F. Courchamp*

    E-print Network

    Courchamp, Franck

    intense that mortality approaches 100% in any clutch not relocated to an enclosed hatchery. At sites where species introduced by people (e.g., feral dogs, cats, pigs) or species whose populations are unnaturally in sea turtles); 5. Improper methods of hatchling release produce high rates of mortality. When

  8. Turbulent dynamics in a Xviith century population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Noël Bonneuil

    1990-01-01

    A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux (1589–1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator, the overall Coale index If. In spite of the noisy appearance of its evolution, the trajectory of If looks ordered, as if it were confined alternatively to two given zones, looping in each of them for a while, then suddenly

  9. Dynamics of neural populations: Stability and synchrony

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lawrence Sirovich; Ahmet Omurtag; Kip Lubliner

    2006-01-01

    A population formulation of neuronal activity is employed to study an excitatory network of (spiking) neurons receiving external input as well as recurrent feedback. At relatively low levels of feedback, the network exhibits time stationary asynchronous behavior. A stability analysis of this time stationary state leads to an analytical criterion for the critical gain at which time asynchronous behavior becomes

  10. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    E-print Network

    Basuki, Thomas Anung; Barbuti, Roberto; Maggiolo-Schettini, Andrea; Milazzo, Paolo; Rossi, Elisabetta; 10.4204/EPTCS.33.2

    2010-01-01

    We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito) and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS) are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls) to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  11. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics.

    PubMed

    Barry, Alyssa E; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-05-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  12. Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

  13. Synoptic-scale upwelling indices and predictions of phyto- and zooplankton populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Reyes, Marisol; Largier, John L.; Sydeman, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal upwelling is responsible for the biologically rich and productive ecosystems of coastal eastern boundary currents. In most studies of physical - biological interactions in these systems, upwelling statistics are computed on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales, whereas upwelling naturally occurs at high frequencies (days to weeks). This simplification of the upwelling process may misrepresent relationships between upwelling and biological populations. Based on 31 years (1982-2012) of hourly-measured winds and sea surface temperature at buoys off the central-northern California coast, we characterized upwelling and relaxation events at synoptic time scales, and used event-scale statistics to relate to local lower trophic level populations. We defined three metrics to quantify synoptic-scale upwelling: (i) Intensity, a measure of cumulative wind stress forcing during each upwelling event, (ii) SSTevent, a measure of the oceanic response to wind forcing, and (iii) Nutrient Upwelling Index (NUI), a measure of the nitrate availability at the surface during upwelling events. We compared cumulative values of Intensity and NUI, and average values of SSTevent during the peak of the upwelling season (April-June in central-northern California) to proxies of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a concentrations) and krill abundance to assess the abilities of high frequency upwelling indices to predict biology. Wind forcing alone (Intensity) did not explain population variability, but SSTevent and NUI showed excellent relationships to chlorophyll concentrations (44% and 54% of variance explained, respectively) and krill abundance (68% of variance explained). All relationships appeared to be dome-shaped, supporting the hypothesis that moderate upwelling and ocean temperature are optimal for these populations. SSTevent and NUI performed better than the traditional Bakun upwelling index in predicting populations. We conclude that investigating upwelling characteristics on event scales can improve understanding of lower trophic level dynamics in eastern boundary current systems.

  14. Parameterized multistate population dynamics and projections.

    PubMed

    Rogers, A

    1986-03-01

    "This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated [using data primarily from a number of developed countries, particularly Sweden], together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules." The author notes that "the parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible." PMID:12155407

  15. Fisheries Management under Cyclical Population Dynamics

    E-print Network

    Rate growth g(F) = [0 + 1F]F #12;Harvest Closures #12;Models with Time-Varying Parameters: 1) Single-Species-Schaefer Model Static optimum: slope of growth function equals interest rate Dynamic optimum (stock dependent oscillating growth rates / carrying capacity ­ Implications for maximizing economic rent · Model with stock

  16. Dynamic population coding in primary visual cortex

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Diego Gutnisky

    2009-01-01

    More than a century ago Ramon y Cajal pioneered the description of neural circuits. Currently, new techniques are being developed to streamline the characterization of entire neural circuits. Even if this 'connectome' approach is successful, it will represent only a static description of neural circuits. Thus, a fundamental question in neuroscience is to understand how information is dynamically represented by

  17. SSE 2300/CE4990: System Dynamics Population Dynamics and Carrying Capacity

    E-print Network

    Mukherjee, Amlan

    be growth forever in a system that has finite resources. · Such a system will initially exhibit exponential feedback the system will show exponential decay. Causal Loop Diagram Underlying Theory System populationSSE 2300/CE4990: System Dynamics Population Dynamics and Carrying Capacity April 12, 2010

  18. Markets, population dynamics, and coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Curran, Sara R; Cruz, Maria C

    2002-06-01

    Our synthesis focuses on how markets influence the population and environment relationship within coastal ecosystems by considering the differential valuing of environmental resources and ecosystem services through 3 perspectives: livelihood, globalization, and public goods and externalities. These are not new perspectives when considering how markets shape demographic and environmental outcomes. However, we suggest that the insight offered by viewing coastal and marine health through these combined lenses brings into focus with renewed urgency the perils facing these vital ecosystems. PMID:12174609

  19. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. PMID:21905432

  20. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results suggest that, in order to appropriately model early HIV/SIV dynamics, additional factors must be considered in the model development. These may include variability in monkey susceptibility to infection, within-host competition between different viruses for target cells at the initial site of virus replication in the mucosa, innate immune response, and possibly the inclusion of several different tissue compartments. The sobering news is that while an increase in model complexity is needed to explain the available experimental data, testing and rejection of more complex models may require more quantitative data than is currently available. PMID:25781919

  1. Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.

    PubMed

    Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

    2013-07-01

    Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization. PMID:23707910

  2. Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  3. Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Axel G. Rossberg; Keith D. Farnsworth

    Goldstone’s idea of slow dynamics resulting from spontaneously broken symmetries is applied to Hubbell’s neutral hypothesis\\u000a of community dynamics, to efficiently simplify stage-structured multi-species models—introducing the quasi-neutral approximation\\u000a (QNA). Rather than assuming population-dynamical neutrality in the QNA, deviations from ideal neutrality, thought to be small,\\u000a drive dynamics. The QNA is systematically derived to first and second order in a two-scale

  4. Predictive control of nonlinear dynamic processes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. Haber

    1995-01-01

    Predictive control can be applied if the reference value of the process is known in advance and the deterministic disturbances can be predicted. A cost function defined in the future horizon is minimized. The control signal is calculated for a control horizon, but only the first one is applied and the procedure is repeated (receding horizon strategy). Processes with mild

  5. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?s included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  6. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate ? was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (?<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ?(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ?(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in ?. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  7. Effectiveness of Genomic Prediction of Maize Hybrid Performance in Different Breeding Populations and Environments

    PubMed Central

    Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Atlin, Gary N.; Hickey, John M.; Crossa, Jose; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Sorrells, Mark E.; Raman, Babu; Cairns, Jill E.; Tarekegne, Amsal; Semagn, Kassa; Beyene, Yoseph; Grudloyma, Pichet; Technow, Frank; Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F2-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F2-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set. PMID:23173094

  8. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)] [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Sayler, Gary Steven [ORNL] [ORNL; Xu, Tingting [ORNL] [ORNL; Ripp, Steven Anthony [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  9. Salicornia ramosissima population dynamics and tolerance of salinity

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Helena Silva; Gustavo Caldeira; Helena Freitas

    2007-01-01

    Field and greenhouse studies have been conducted to clarify aspects of population dynamics and NaCl tolerance of Salicornia ramosissima J. Woods. Two populations, Varela and Verdemilho, were monitored in the field during two consecutive life cycles and aspects\\u000a of their morphology and density were recorded monthly. In the laboratory seedlings were exposed to different salinity for\\u000a 10 weeks and growth and

  10. Population dynamics of animals in unpredictably-changing tropical environments

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tamiji Inoue; Koji Nakamura; Siti Salmah; Idrus Abbas

    1993-01-01

    We studied population dynamics of a solitary phytophagous beetle,Epilachna viqintioctopunctata and a social stingless bee,Trigona minangkabau, in Sumatra, Indonesia for 5 years from 1981.\\u000a \\u000a Population increase ofEpilachna vigintioctopunctata was suppressed in months of normal rainfall (?300mm) but was released in the 1982–1983 El Nino-Southern. Oscillation when\\u000a rainfall dropped to 50% of the long-term average. Mechanisms might be direct; rainfall lowered

  11. Factors Affecting Dynamic Populations (title provided or enhanced by cataloger)

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This lesson plan teaches students that populations are dynamic with identifiable characteristics and measurable growth patterns. Factors of population survival that are taught include immigration and emigration, environmental resistance, carrying capacity, and homeostasis. The lesson plan provides objectives, skills, time needed, a content outline, materials, and significant terms. The overarching goal is for students to develop an understanding of the interdependence of all organisms and the need for conserving natural resources.

  12. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (?a and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree ?0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = ?b) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where ?0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which ?0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio ?0 = 3.

  13. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations). However, in both cases, a mesoscale vortex at the mid level apparently induced by the convection tends to induce a cyclonic circulation at the low level after several hours' adjustment which eventually leads to the development of the hurricane similar to that simulated in ENKF06 (and to observations). This result implies that, under favorable conditions for tropical development and rapid intensification, the exact route to tropical cyclogenesis, either top-down or bottom-up, may be of secondary importance. Nevertheless, prior to the rapid intensification, all three experiments produce abundant convection (VHTs) near the center of the TC circulation. As soon as one or a few VHTs appear right at the center of the low-level cyclonic circulation, rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone is followed. We are currently examining potential dominating factors in controlling the near- synchronous rapid development at similar location among the three simulations with significantly different initial circulations.

  14. Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Eric Post (Pennsylvania State University; )

    2009-06-01

    Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article, we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantifying the effects of climate change at the species level. The global population dynamics approach, which relies on distribution-wide, data-driven analyses of dynamics, goes beyond quantifying biotic interactions in population dynamics to identify hot spots of response to climate change. Such hot spots highlight populations or locations within speciesâ?? distributions that are particularly sensitive to climate change, and identification of them should focus conservation and management efforts. An important result of the analyses highlighted here is pronounced variation at the species level in the strength and direction of population responses to warming. Although this variation complicates species-level predictions of responses to climate change, the global population dynamics approach may improve our understanding of the complex implications of climate change for species persistence or extinction.

  15. The influence of context-dependent maternal effects on population dynamics: an experimental test

    PubMed Central

    Plaistow, S.J.; Benton, T.G.

    2009-01-01

    Parental effects arise when either the maternal or paternal phenotype influences the phenotypes of subsequent generations. Simple analytical models assume maternal effects are a mechanism creating delayed density dependence. Such models predict that maternal effects can very easily lead to population cycles. Despite this, unambiguous maternal-effect mediated cycles have not been demonstrated in any system. Additionally, much evidence has arisen to invalidate the underlying assumption that there is a simple positive correlation between maternal performance and offspring performance. A key issue in understanding how maternal effects may affect population dynamics is determining how the expression of parental effects changes in different environments. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that maternal effects influence population dynamics in a context-dependent way. Populations of the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, were set up at high density (500 eggs) or low density (50 eggs), with eggs that were either laid by young mothers or old mothers (a previously documented maternal effect in this system). The influence of maternal age on both population and egg and body-size dynamics was only observed in the populations initiated under low density rather than high density. This difference was attributable to the context-dependence of maternal effects at the individual level. In low-density (high food) conditions, maternal effects have an impact on offspring reproductive performance, creating an impact on the population growth rate. In high density (low food), maternal effects impact more on juvenile survival (not adult size or reproduction), creating a smaller impact on the population growth rate. This context dependence of effects at the population level means that, in fluctuating populations, maternal effects cause intermittent delayed density dependence that does not lead to persistent cycles. PMID:19324610

  16. A Dynamic Model of Cognitive Growth in a Population: Spatial Tasks and Conservation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shulamith Graus Eckstein

    1999-01-01

    A dynamic model of cognitive growth is developed that is applicable to cross-sectional studies of growth in a population, and that predicts the distribution of scores as a function of age. This model modifies the theory of P. van Geert (1991,Psychological Review,98, 3–53) for the cognitive growth of an individual under limited resources, by taking into account the effect of

  17. Simulation model of Rhyzopertha dominica population dynamics in concrete grain bins

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Paul W. Flinn; David W. Hagstrum; Carl Reed; Thomas W. Phillips

    2004-01-01

    Rhyzopertha dominica is one of the most damaging insect pests in grain elevators and causes millions of dollars worth of stored grain losses annually in the USA. A simulation model was developed for predicting R. dominica population dynamics in concrete grain bins. The model used a two-dimensional representation of a cylindrical concrete bin (33m tall×6.4m wide), and used hourly weather

  18. Variation in plant quality and the population dynamics of herbivores: there is nothing average about aphids

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sandra E. Helms; Mark D. Hunter

    2005-01-01

    In the attempt to use results from small-scale studies to make large-scale predictions, it is critical that we take into account\\u000a the greater spatial heterogeneity encountered at larger spatial scales. An important component of this heterogeneity is variation\\u000a in plant quality, which can have a profound influence on herbivore population dynamics. This influence is particularly relevant\\u000a when we consider that

  19. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. PMID:25403576

  20. Genomic predictability of interconnected bi-parental maize populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Intense structuring of plant breeding populations leads to new challenges for genomic selection (GS) not encountered in animal breeding. One important open question is how the training population (TP) should be constructed from multiple related or unrelated small bi-parental families. Knowing the pr...

  1. On predicting the ash behaviour using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Roman Weber; Marco Mancini; Natalia Schaffel-Mancini; Tomasz Kupka

    The objective of this paper is to examine several approaches for predicting the ash behaviour using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The emphasis is placed on details of the sub-models used. In models that aim at predicting the temperature–time history of fuel particles, from the injection position to the deposit surface, the information about the char combustion rate is essential. Of

  2. Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks

    E-print Network

    Blower, Sally

    Amplification Dynamics: Predicting the Effect of HIV on Tuberculosis Outbreaks *Travis C. Porco, U.S.A. Summary: HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis out- breaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic

  3. Dynamic knee loads during gait predict proximal tibial bone distribution

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Debra E. Hurwitz; Dale R. Sumner; Thomas P. Andriacchi; David A. Sugar

    1998-01-01

    This study tested the validity of the prediction of dynamic knee loads based on gait measurements. The relationship between the predicted loads at the knee and the distribution of bone between the medial and lateral sides of the tibia was examined. The motion and external forces and moments at the knee were measured during gait and a statically determinate muscle

  4. Detecting dynamical interdependence and generalized synchrony through mutual prediction in a neural ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiff, Steven J.; So, Paul; Chang, Taeun; Burke, Robert E.; Sauer, Tim

    1996-12-01

    A method to characterize dynamical interdependence among nonlinear systems is derived based on mutual nonlinear prediction. Systems with nonlinear correlation will show mutual nonlinear prediction when standard analysis with linear cross correlation might fail. Mutual nonlinear prediction also provides information on the directionality of the coupling between systems. Furthermore, the existence of bidirectional mutual nonlinear prediction in unidirectionally coupled systems implies generalized synchrony. Numerical examples studied include three classes of unidirectionally coupled systems: systems with identical parameters, nonidentical parameters, and stochastic driving of a nonlinear system. This technique is then applied to the activity of motoneurons within a spinal cord motoneuron pool. The interrelationships examined include single neuron unit firing, the total number of neurons discharging at one time as measured by the integrated monosynaptic reflex, and intracellular measurements of integrated excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSP's). Dynamical interdependence, perhaps generalized synchrony, was identified in this neuronal network between simultaneous single unit firings, between units and the population, and between units and intracellular EPSP's.

  5. Fluid dynamics based prediction of liquefaction induced lateral spreading

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. Uzuoka; A. Yashima; T. Kawakami; J.-M. Konrad

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents and verifies a numerical method to predict the lateral spreading of liquefied subsoil based on fluid dynamics. A numerical fluid dynamics code is modified to incorporate the Bingham viscosity with the minimum undrained strength of liquefied subsoil. The numerical method is applied to shaking table tests of a liquefied slope with and without an underground structure and

  6. Dynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome

    E-print Network

    Morris, Quaid

    the dynamic structure of the human protein interaction network (interactome) to determine whether changesDynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome Ian W Taylor1 identified proteins that have many interacting partners (so called `hubs') in a network of protein-protein

  7. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

  8. Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

    2014-04-01

    Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.

  9. Dynamic oscillations predicted by computer studies

    SciTech Connect

    Butts, M.M.; Smith, H.S. (Southern Co. Services (US))

    1991-01-01

    During the latter part of 1988, a study was begun to review the dynamic stability performance of a power company's plant. The scope of the study was to identify any operating conditions that might contribute to system oscillations and to examine alternative solutions that would control these oscillations. The study was performed in several phases. This paper discusses the study process, utilizing two different software packages for the analysis: Dynamic stability studies using time-domain software and Eigenvalue analysis using frequency-domain software.

  10. Dynamics and management of infectious disease in colonizing populations.

    PubMed

    Bar-David, Shirli; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Getz, Wayne M

    2006-05-01

    The introduction of chronic, infectious diseases by colonizing populations (invasive or reintroduced) is a serious hazard in conservation biology, threatening the original host and other spillover species. Most research on spatial invasion of diseases has pertained to established host populations, either at steady state or fluctuating through time. Within a colonizing population, however, the spread of disease may be influenced by the expansion process of the population itself. Here we explore the simultaneous expansion of a colonizing population and a chronic, nonlethal disease introduced with it, describing basic patterns in homogeneous and structured landscapes and discussing implications for disease management. We describe expected outcomes of such introductions for three qualitatively distinct cases, depending on the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expand. (1) If transmissibility is low the disease cannot be sustained, although it may first expand its range somewhat around the point of introduction. (2) If transmissibility is moderate but the wave-front velocity for the population, vp, is higher than that for the disease, vd, the disease wave front lags behind that of the population. (3) A highly transmissible disease, with vd > vp, will invade sufficiently rapidly to track the spread of the host. To test these elementary theoretical predictions, we simulated disease outbreaks in a spatially structured host population occupying a real landscape. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model of Persian fallow deer (Dama mesopotamica) reintroduced in northern Israel, considering a hypothetical introduction of bovine tuberculosis. Basic patterns of disease expansion in this realistic setting were similar to our conceptual predictions for homogeneous landscapes. Landscape heterogeneity, however, induced the establishment of population activity centers and disease foci within them, leading to jagged wave fronts and causing local variation in the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expanded. Based on predictions from simple theory and simulations of managed outbreaks, we suggest that the relative velocities at which the population and epidemic expand have important implications for the impact of different management strategies. Recognizing which of our three general cases best describes a particular outbreak will aid in planning an efficient strategy to contain the disease. PMID:16761600

  11. Cryptic genetic variation in natural populations: a predictive framework.

    PubMed

    Ledón-Rettig, Cris C; Pfennig, David W; Chunco, Amanda J; Dworkin, Ian

    2014-11-01

    Understanding how populations respond to rapid environmental change is critical both for preserving biodiversity and for human health. An increasing number of studies have shown that genetic variation that has no discernable effect under common ecological conditions can become amplified under stressful or novel conditions, suggesting that environmental change per se can provide the raw materials for adaptation. Indeed, the release of such hidden, or "cryptic," genetic variants has been increasingly viewed as playing a general and important role in allowing populations to respond to rapid environmental change. However, additional studies have suggested that there is a balance between cryptic genetic variants that are potentially adaptive in future environments and genetic variants that are deleterious. In this article, we begin by discussing how population and environmental parameters-such as effective population size and the historical frequency and strength of selection under inducing conditions-influence relative amounts of cryptic genetic variation among populations and the overall phenotypic effects of such variation. The amount and distribution of cryptic genetic variation will, in turn, determine the likelihood that cryptic variants, once expressed, will be adaptive or maladaptive during environmental transitions. We then present specific approaches for measuring these parameters in natural populations. Finally, we discuss one natural system that will be conducive to testing whether populations that vary in these parameters harbor different amounts, or types, of cryptic genetic variation. Generally, teasing apart how population and environmental parameters influence the accumulation of cryptic genetic variation will help us to understand how populations endure and adapt (or fail to adapt) to natural environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance. PMID:24944116

  12. Interactions between predation and resources shape zooplankton population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  13. Mortality dynamics and population regulation in Bemisia tabaci

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Steven E. Naranjo; Peter C. Ellsworth

    Natural mortality is an important determinant of the population dynamics of a species, and an understanding of mortality forces should aid in the development of better management strategies for insect pests. An in situ, observational method was used to construct cohort-based life tables for Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Biotype B (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) over 14 generations on cotton in central Arizona, USA,

  14. DYNAMICS OF A PENAEID SHRIMP POPULATION AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS

    E-print Network

    DYNAMICS OF A PENAEID SHRIMP POPULATION AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS By JOSEPH H. KUTKUHN, Fishery utilization of a stock of pink shrimp (Penaeidae) that supports an important com- mercial fishery or not the fishery's production could be improved by postponing the start of fishing until the shrimp reach a size

  15. Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Optimisation of cancer drug treatments using cell population dynamics Fr´ed´erique Billy1 , Jean. The constraints at stake, met everyday in the clinic of cancers, are related mainly to resistance to treatment models used in cancer treatment in the last decades, together with the biological phenomena that can

  16. Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes

    E-print Network

    McMahon, Thomas E.

    Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes: a synthesis and immigration and removal of individuals through death and emigration. However, immigration and emigration as primary driving forces ­ partly because immigration and emigration are so inherently difficult to measure

  17. The HIV coreceptor switch: a population dynamical perspective

    E-print Network

    Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    for CCR5 to a preference for CXCR4 in w50% of infected individuals. The change in coreceptor usage resolved, the population dynamical mechanisms leading to the emergence of CXCR4-using HIV variants in some receptors CCR5 and CXCR4 [1]. Over the course of the infection, the coreceptor usage of HIV changes from

  18. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  19. Dynamics of the parasitic (Varroa jacobsoni) population: Modelling criteria

    Microsoft Academic Search

    I. FRIES

    SUMMARY - The basic structure of the Varroa mite and honey bee relationship is described to allow the construction of a mathematical model of the mite population dynamics. Necessary criteria for building the model is commented. In the mite reproduction part of the model, the demand of relevant bee brood data and the understanding of variations in mite fertility, especially

  20. Dynamics of maturing populations and their asymptotic behaviour

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Gopalsamy

    1977-01-01

    It is well known that the partial differential equation of the traditional model describing the dynamics of an age-dependent population is of the first order hyperbolic type. An equation of that type cannot simultaneously accommodate a renewal type birth boundary condition and a death boundary condition by old age (accumulation of aging injury) and thus lacks biological realism (mortality by

  1. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department of Mathematics Towson University May 24, 2008 Mike O'Leary (Towson University) A Diffusion Model in Genetics May determine the long-time behavior of the total genetic variance? Portions of this work are joint with Judith

  2. Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales

    E-print Network

    Population dynamics, production, and prey consumption of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) in prairie wetlands and developed a bioenergetics model to estimate-de-boules (Pimephales promelas) dans les milieux humides des prairies et mis au point un modèle de bioénergétique pour

  3. Modelling microbial population dynamics in nitritation processes Elisabetta Giusti a

    E-print Network

    sludge modelling Parameter estimation Population dynamics Nitritation a b s t r a c t In the wastewater. A modified Activated Sludge Model No. 3 (ASM3) with two-step nitrification-denitrifi- cation. Environmental January 2011 Accepted 1 February 2011 Available online 3 March 2011 Keywords: Microbial kinetics Activated

  4. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  5. Improving structure-based function prediction using molecular dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Glazer, Dariya S.; Radmer, Randall J.; Altman, Russ B.

    2009-01-01

    Summary The number of molecules with solved three-dimensional structure but unknown function is increasing rapidly. Particularly problematic are novel folds with little detectable similarity to molecules of known function. Experimental assays can determine the functions of such molecules, but are time-consuming and expensive. Computational approaches can identify potential functional sites; however, these approaches generally rely on single static structures and do not use information about dynamics. In fact, structural dynamics can enhance function prediction: we coupled molecular dynamics simulations with structure-based function prediction algorithms that identify Ca2+ binding sites. When applied to 11 challenging proteins, both methods showed substantial improvement in performance, revealing 22 more sites in one case and 12 more in the other, with a modest increase in apparent false positives. Thus, we show that treating molecules as dynamic entities improves the performance of structure-based function prediction methods. PMID:19604472

  6. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  7. Stochastic simulation of structured skin cell population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nakaoka, Shinji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2013-03-01

    The epidermis is the outmost skin tissue. It operates as a first defense system to process inflammatory signals and responds by producing inflammatory mediators that promote the recruitment of immune cells. Various skin diseases such as atopic dermatitis occur as a result of the defect of proper skin barrier function and successive impaired inflammatory responses. The onset of such a skin disease links to the disturbed epidermal homeostasis regulated by appropriate self-renewal and differentiation of epidermal stem cells. The theory of physiologically structured population models provides a versatile framework to formulate mathematical models which describe the growth dynamics of a cell population such as the epidermis. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to implement stochastic simulation for a class of physiologically structured population models. We demonstrate that the developed algorithm is applicable to several cell population models and typical age-structured population models. On the basis of the developed algorithm, we investigate stochastic dynamics of skin cell populations and spread of inflammation. It is revealed that demographic stochasticity can bring considerable impact on the outcome of inflammation spread at the tissue level. PMID:23255068

  8. Dynamic Cruising Range Prediction for Electric Vehicles

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter Conradi; Philipp Bouteiller; Sascha Hanßen

    \\u000a Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) require new driver information systems. We anticipate a new integrated and networked information\\u000a system class, combining data input from central car systems, drivers’ behaviour and environmental parameters. By introducing\\u000a the system mapZero we propose an OEM-independent cruising range prediction system, which combines measurement and GIS-system\\u000a based calculations on the ride (see Fig. 1). For the first

  9. Bidirectional Dynamics for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pierre Baldi; Søren Brunak; Paolo Frasconi; Gianluca Pollastri; Giovanni Soda

    Connectionist models for learning in sequential domains are typically dynamical systems that use hidden states to store contextual\\u000a information. In principle, these models can adapt to variable time lags and perform complex sequential mappings. In spite\\u000a of several successful applications (mostly based on hidden Markov models), the general class of sequence learning problems\\u000a is still far from being satisfactorily solved.

  10. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate. PMID:20349837

  11. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    PubMed

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. PMID:21463613

  12. Parametric dynamic load prediction of a narrow gauge rocket sled

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlow, John Scott

    Dynamic load prediction of rocket sleds has been of interest to sled designers and analysts since the inception of the Holloman High Speed Test Track, (HHSTT). Dynamic loading along with thrust and aerodynamic loading is a primary contributor to sled design load cases. Dynamic loading comes directly from the rocket sled traversing the gap between the slipper and rail and the resulting sliding impacts. The current study investigates the prediction of narrow gauge sled dynamic loads by applying a systematic process of modeling validation, design parameter variation and dynamic load correlation. Numerical modeling was employed to simulate the Land Speed Record (LSR) test and the model data was validated by comparing it to the data taken from the sled during the LSR test. Modeling methods validated against the test data were applied to a reduced complexity narrow gauge sled representing a generic version of the LSR sled. Design parameters were identified that contributed to the generation of dynamic loading. The design parameters are: sled mass, slipper gap, vertical rail roughness, lateral rail roughness, vertical sled natural frequency, lateral sled natural frequency, torsional sled natural frequency, and sled velocity. Peak dynamic load results (from evaluating the reduced complexity model while varying the design parameter values over high, low, and typical ranges) were computed at the sled center of Gravity (CG). This peak dynamic loading, eta force, constituted the dynamic load prediction. The correlation of eta to its respective design parameters showed that a multivariate interpolation method was the most accurate method to relate eta force to its respective design parameters. The study revealed a heavy dependence of dynamic load on velocity, rail roughness, slipper gap, and translational sled natural frequencies. The study also showed a favorable comparison of eta force prediction over previously used methods at the HHSTT.

  13. Ecological change, range fluctuations and population dynamics during the Pleistocene.

    PubMed

    Hofreiter, Michael; Stewart, John

    2009-07-28

    Apart from the current human-induced climate change, the Holocene is notable for its stable climate. In contrast, the preceding age, the Pleistocene, was a time of intensive climatic fluctuations, with temperature changes of up to 15 degrees C occurring within a few decades. These climatic changes have substantially influenced both animal and plant populations. Until recently, the prevailing opinion about the effect of these climatic fluctuations on species in Europe was that populations survived glacial maxima in southern refugia and that populations died out outside these refugia. However, some of the latest studies of modern population genetics, the fossil record and especially ancient DNA reveal a more complex picture. There is now strong evidence for additional local northern refugia for a large number of species, including both plants and animals. Furthermore, population genetic analyses using ancient DNA have shown that genetic diversity and its geographical structure changed more often and in more unpredictable ways during the Pleistocene than had been inferred. Taken together, the Pleistocene is now seen as an extremely dynamic era, with rapid and large climatic fluctuations and correspondingly variable ecology. These changes were accompanied by similarly fast and sometimes dramatic changes in population size and extensive gene flow mediated by population movements. Thus, the Pleistocene is an excellent model case for the effects of rapid climate change, as we experience at the moment, on the ecology of plants and animals. PMID:19640497

  14. Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    "Because rocket engines operate under extreme temperature and pressure, they present a unique challenge to designers who must test and simulate the technology. To this end, CRAFT Tech Inc., of Pipersville, Pennsylvania, won Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Marshall Space Flight Center to develop software to simulate cryogenic fluid flows and related phenomena. CRAFT Tech enhanced its CRUNCH CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software to simulate phenomena in various liquid propulsion components and systems. Today, both government and industry clients in the aerospace, utilities, and petrochemical industries use the software for analyzing existing systems as well as designing new ones."

  15. A comparison of six methods for stabilizing population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Tung, Sudipta; Mishra, Abhishek; Dey, Sutirth

    2014-09-01

    Over the last two decades, several methods have been proposed for stabilizing the dynamics of biological populations. However, these methods have typically been evaluated using different population dynamics models and in the context of very different concepts of stability, which makes it difficult to compare their relative efficiencies. Moreover, since the dynamics of populations are dependent on the life-history of the species and its environment, it is conceivable that the stabilizing effects of control methods would also be affected by such factors, a complication that has typically not been investigated. In this study, we compare six different control methods with respect to their efficiency at inducing a common level of enhancement (defined as 50% increase) for two kinds of stability (constancy and persistence) under four different life-history/environment combinations. Since these methods have been analytically studied elsewhere, we concentrate on an intuitive understanding of realistic simulations incorporating noise, extinction probability and lattice effect. We show that for these six methods, even when the magnitude of stabilization attained is the same, other aspects of the dynamics like population size distribution can be very different. Consequently, correlated aspects of stability, like the amount of persistence for a given degree of constancy stability (and vice versa) or the corresponding effective population size (a measure of resistance to genetic drift) vary widely among the methods. Moreover, the number of organisms needed to be added or removed to attain similar levels of stabilization also varies for these methods, a fact that has economic implications. Finally, we compare the relative efficiencies of these methods through a composite index of various stability related measures. Our results suggest that Lower Limiter Control (LLC) seems to be the optimal method under most conditions, with the recently proposed Adaptive Limiter Control (ALC) being a close second. PMID:24801858

  16. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony. PMID:22961371

  17. Predicting Online Harassment Victimization among a Juvenile Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bossler, Adam M.; Holt, Thomas J.; May, David C.

    2012-01-01

    Online harassment can consist of threatening, worrisome, emotionally hurtful, or sexual messages delivered via an electronic medium that can lead victims to feel fear or distress much like real-world harassment and stalking. This activity is especially prevalent among middle and high school populations who frequently use technology as a means to…

  18. Predicting Online Harassment Victimization Among a Juvenile Population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David May; Adam M Bossler; Thomas J. Holt

    2011-01-01

    Online harassment can consist of threatening, worrisome, emotionally hurtful, or sexual messages delivered via an electronic medium that can lead victims to feel fear or distress much like real-world harassment and stalking. This activity is especially prevalent among middle and high school populations who frequently use technology as a means to communicate with others. Little is known, however, whether factors

  19. Bromus species in winter wheat-population dynamics and competitiveness.

    PubMed

    Moray, R; Büchse, A; Hurle, K

    2003-01-01

    The infestation of Bromus species in small grains, especially in winter cereals has increased over recent years. In some areas winter wheat growers consider Bromus spp. as their worst grass weed. Besides yield reduction, Bromus spp. cause lodging and complication of harvest. In Germany the two most dominant species are Bromus sterilis (L.) and Bromus secalinus (L.). In order to develop control strategies the population dynamics of the weeds were investigated. Based on the results a deterministic mathematical model using differential and algebraic equations was used to estimate changes in the population of the two Bromus species. PMID:15149129

  20. Seasonally modulated evolutionary dynamics of finite populations: metastable Floquet states

    E-print Network

    Tkachenko, Olena; Denisov, Sergey; Zaburdaev, Vasily; Hänggi, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Mating strategies of many biological species are season-dependent. In evolutionary game theory this can be modelled with two finite opposite-sex populations whose members are playing against each other following rules which are modulated in time. By combining Floquet theory and the concept of quasi-stationary distributions, we show the existence of metastable time-periodic states in the stochastic evolution of the populations. These long-lived states describe a fraction of players that are still modifying their strategies and exhibit dynamics beyond the reach of mean-field theory.

  1. Dynamic viscosity estimation of hydrogen sulfide using a predictive scheme based on molecular dynamics.

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 Dynamic viscosity estimation of hydrogen sulfide using a predictive scheme based on molecular on molecular dynamics results on Lennard-Jones spheres is proposed to model the viscosity of hydrogen sulfide is appropriate for the other species of the mixtures. Keywords: Hydrogen sulfide; Viscosity; Molecular Dynamics

  2. Limits and Uses of Dynamical Predictions of Meteorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyon, B.

    2012-12-01

    The overall technical capabilities now exist to make real time, seasonal drought forecasts on a near global scale, but how skillful are such predictions? In this talk the skill of seasonal drought indicator predictions based on a combination of real time observations and dynamical model seasonal forecasts is first evaluated over the US and Mexico. The relative contributions of predictive skill from sea surface temperatures and initialed land surface and atmospheric conditions is discussed relative to baseline predictability resulting from the inherent persistence of the indicators. Web-based tools which display such predictions are then briefly described. Finally, the challenges in using such predictions in decision-making settings is described. In many applications, more detailed or tailored information is desired. Examples of the latter are based on IRI-related projects on fire early warning in Kalimantan, food security outlooks in East Africa and research towards drought early warning in the agriculture sector in the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

  3. Exploring iris colour prediction and ancestry inference in admixed populations of South America.

    PubMed

    Freire-Aradas, A; Ruiz, Y; Phillips, C; Maroñas, O; Söchtig, J; Tato, A Gómez; Dios, J Álvarez; de Cal, M Casares; Silbiger, V N; Luchessi, A D; Luchessi, A D; Chiurillo, M A; Carracedo, Á; Lareu, M V

    2014-11-01

    New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples. PMID:25051225

  4. Dynamic transmission, host quality, and population structure in a multihost parasite of bumblebees.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-González, Mario X; Bryden, John; Moret, Yannick; Reber-Funk, Christine; Schmid-Hempel, Paul; Brown, Mark J F

    2012-10-01

    The evolutionary ecology of multihost parasites is predicted to depend upon patterns of host quality and the dynamics of transmission networks. Depending upon the differences in host quality and transmission asymmetries, as well as the balance between intra- and interspecific transmission, the evolution of specialist or generalist strategies is predicted. Using a trypanosome parasite of bumblebees, we ask how host quality and transmission networks relate to parasite population structure across host species, and thus the potential for the evolution of specialist strains adapted to different host species. Host species differed in quality, with parasite growth varying across host species. Highly asymmetric transmission networks, together with differences in host quality, likely explain local population structure of the parasite across host species. However, parasite population structure across years was highly dynamic, with parasite populations varying significantly from one year to the next within individual species at a given site. This suggests that, while host quality and transmission may provide the opportunity for short-term host specialization by the parasite, repeated bottlenecking of the parasite, in combination with its own reproductive biology, overrides these smaller scale effects, resulting in the evolution of a generalist parasite. PMID:23025597

  5. Feature Engineering for Supervised Link Prediction on Dynamic Social Networks

    E-print Network

    Narasimhan, Jeyanthi

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is an important network science problem in many domains such as social networks, chem/bio-informatics, etc. Most of these networks are dynamic in nature with patterns evolving over time. In such cases, it is necessary to incorporate time in the mining process in a seamless manner to aid in better prediction performance. We propose a two-step solution strategy to the link prediction problem in dynamic networks in this work. The first step involves a novel yet simple feature construction approach using a combination of domain and topological attributes of the graph. In the second phase, we perform unconstrained edge selection to identify potential candidates for prediction by any generic two-class learner. We design various experiments on a real world collaboration network and show the effectiveness of our approach.

  6. Subject-specific prediction using nonlinear population modeling: Application to early brain maturation from DTI

    PubMed Central

    Sadeghi, Neda; Fletcher, P. Thomas; Prastawa, Marcel; Gilmore, John H.; Gerig, Guido

    2015-01-01

    The term prediction implies expected outcome in the future, often based on a model and statistical inference. Longitudinal imaging studies offer the possibility to model temporal change trajectories of anatomy across populations of subjects. In the spirit of subject-specific analysis, such normative models can then be used to compare data from new subjects to the norm and to study progression of disease or to predict outcome. This paper follows a statistical inference approach and presents a framework for prediction of future observations based on past measurements and population statistics. We describe prediction in the context of nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NLME) where the full reference population’s statistics (estimated fixed effects, variance-covariance of random effects, variance of noise) is used along with the individual’s available observations to predict its trajectory. The proposed methodology is generic in regard to application domains. Here, we demonstrate analysis of early infant brain maturation from longitudinal DTI with up to three time points. Growth as observed in DTI-derived scalar invariants is modeled with a parametric function, its parameters being input to NLME population modeling. Trajectories of new subject’s data are estimated when using no observation, only the first or the first two time points. Leave-one-out experiments result in statistics on differences between actual and predicted observations. We also simulate a clinical scenario of prediction on multiple categories, where trajectories predicted from multiple models are classified based on maximum likelihood criteria. PMID:25320779

  7. Predictive markers in calpastatin for tenderness in commercial pig populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The identification of predictive DNA markers for pork quality would allow U.S. pork producers and breeders to more quickly and efficiently select genetically superior animals for production of consistent, high quality meat. Genome scans have identified QTL for tenderness on pig chromosome 2 which ha...

  8. Mysid Population Responses to Resource Limitation Differ from those Predicted by Cohort Studies

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects of anthropogenic stressors on animal populations are often evaluated by assembling vital rate responses from isolated cohort studies into a single demographic model. However, models constructed from cohort studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions be...

  9. AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

  10. A Multivariate Model for Predicting Population Fluctuations of Dreissena polymorpha in North American Lakes

    E-print Network

    Padilla, Dianna

    American Lakes Charles W. Ramcharan,1 Dianna K. Padilla, and Stanley I. Dodson Department of Zoology, Birge. Padilla, and S. I. Dodson. 1992. A multivariate model for predicting population fluc- tuations

  11. Non-linearity and heterogeneity in modeling of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Karev, Georgy P

    2014-12-01

    The study of population growth reveals that the behaviors that follow the power law appear in numerous biological, demographical, ecological, physical and other contexts. Parabolic models appear to be realistic approximations of real-life replicator systems, while hyperbolic models were successfully applied to problems of global demography and appear relevant in quasispecies and hypercycle modeling. Nevertheless, it is not always clear why non-exponential growth is observed empirically and what possible origins of the non-exponential models are. In this paper the power equation is considered within the frameworks of inhomogeneous population models; it is proven that any power equation describes the total population size of a frequency-dependent model with Gamma-distributed Malthusian parameter. Additionally, any super-exponential equation describes the dynamics of inhomogeneous Malthusian density-dependent population model. All statistical characteristics of the underlying inhomogeneous models are computed explicitly. The results of this analysis show that population heterogeneity can be a reasonable explanation for power law accurately describing total population growth. PMID:25262656

  12. Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

    SciTech Connect

    Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J.D. (USAF, Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA (United States))

    1991-01-01

    Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

  13. Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics

    E-print Network

    Eric Forgoston; Leah B. Shaw; Ira B. Schwartz

    2014-10-30

    A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

  14. Asynchronous population dynamics of Siberian lemmings across the Palaearctic tundra

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sam Erlinge; Kjell Danell; Peter Frodin; Dennis Hasselquist; Patric Nilsson; Eva-Britt Olofsson; Mikael Svensson

    1999-01-01

    The synchrony of Siberian lemming (Lemmus sibiricus L.) population dynamics was investigated during a ship-borne expedition along the Palaearctic tundra coast in the summer\\u000a of 1994. On 12 sites along the coast from the Kola Peninsula to Wrangel Island, relative densities of lemmings were recorded\\u000a using a standardised snap-trapping programme. The phase position of the lemming cycle in each of

  15. Insect Predation of Seeds and Plant Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jianxin Zhang; Francis A. Drummond; Matt Liebman; Alden Hartke

    1997-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors,wish,to thank,Dr. Eleanor,Groden,and,Dr. Eric Gallandt,for critically reviewing,the manuscript,and,Dr. Richard Storch for editorial assistance. This work,was funded,by the,United States Department,of Agriculture,from,a special,CSRS research grant,for potato ecosystems. Contents Contents Contents Contents Contents Introduction,...................................................................5 Predispersal,Seed Predation .........................................5 Postdispersal,Seed Predation ......................................10 Seed Predation And Plant Population,Dynamics,.......15

  16. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  17. Population dynamics and rapid spread of Cardinium, a bacterial endosymbiont causing cytoplasmic incompatibility in Encarsia pergandiella (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L R Harris; S E Kelly; M S Hunter; S J Perlman

    2010-01-01

    Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) is a common phenotype of maternally inherited bacterial symbionts of arthropods; in its simplest expression, uninfected females produce few or no viable progeny when mated to infected males. Infected females thus experience a reproductive advantage relative to that of uninfected females, with the potential for the symbiont to spread rapidly. CI population dynamics are predicted to depend

  18. Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk Using Framingham, ASSIGN and QRISK2: How Well Do They Predict Individual Rather than Population Risk?

    PubMed Central

    van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter; Gulliford, Martin; Ng, Edmond S.-W.; Goldacre, Ben; Smeeth, Liam

    2014-01-01

    Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. Methods and findings This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (?20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. Conclusions Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk. PMID:25271417

  19. Populations dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Ritchie, Lawrence S.; Radke, Myron G.; Ferguson, Frederick F.

    1962-01-01

    This report on the population dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico is based on observations made over about two years at 50 collecting-sites in a representative range of snail habitats. In some places a marked predominance of Tropicorbis was noted. No continuous or seasonal propagation of Australorbis was apparent. Dense populations seldom prevailed for more than a few months, and in most places very low population levels occurred at irregular intervals, and colony decimations were fairly common. A variety of pressures is exerted on Australorbis in Puerto Rico by a multiplicity of natural factors; detailed knowledge of this snail's natural history in the field is necessary for effective bilharziasis control and for a full understanding of the regional epidemiology of this disease. PMID:14492504

  20. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    E-print Network

    McDermid, Richard M

    2015-01-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the Atlas3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future w...

  1. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDermid, Richard M.

    2015-04-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the ATLAS3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future work.

  2. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  3. Cumulative compressibility effects on population dynamics in turbulent flows

    E-print Network

    Prasad Perlekar; Roberto Benzi; David R. Nelson; Federico Toschi

    2011-09-19

    Bacteria and plankton populations living in oceans and lakes reproduce and die under the in- fluence of turbulent currents. Turbulent transport interacts in a complex way with the dynamics of populations because the typical reproduction time of microorganism is within the inertial range of turbulent time scales. In the present manuscript we quantitatively investigate the effect of flow compressibility on the dynamics of populations. While a small compressibility can be induced by several physical mechanisms, like density mismatch or the finite size of microorganisms with respect to the fluid turbulence, its effect on the the carrying capacity of the ecosystem can be dramatic. We report, for the first time, how a small compressibility can produce a sizeable reduction in the carrying capacity, due to an integrated effect made possible by the long replication times of the organisms with respect to turbulent time scales. A full statistical quantification of the fluctuations of population concentration field leads to data collapse over a broad range in parameter space.

  4. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  5. Dynamic modeling of vehicle populations: An engineering approach for emissions calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Zachariadis, T.; Samaras, Z. [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece)] [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece); Zierock, K.H. [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)] [European Commission, Berlin (Germany)

    1995-10-01

    A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estimates of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total traffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technology substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more refined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed information is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can implement it reasonably well. 17 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  6. Bacterium-induced internal egg hatching frequency is predictive of life span in Caenorhabditis elegans populations.

    PubMed

    Mosser, Thomas; Matic, Ivan; Leroy, Magali

    2011-11-01

    Internal egg hatching in Caenorhabditis elegans, "worm bagging," is induced by exposure to bacteria. This study demonstrates that the determination of worm bagging frequency allows for advanced insight into the degree of bacterial pathogenicity and is highly predictive of the survival of worm populations. Therefore, worm bagging frequency can be regarded as a reliable population-wide stress reporter. PMID:21926203

  7. European eel (Anguilla anguilla): prediction of spawner escapement from continental population

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European eel (Anguilla anguilla): prediction of spawner escapement from continental population the assessment of silver European eel (Anguilla anguilla) escapement based on a "sed- entary" population fraction using eel traps and related to environmental factors. Intensive electrofishing and fyke-net fishing were

  8. Predictions of mussel (Mytilus edulis) biomass on an offshore platform from single population samples

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. A. Richardson; R. Seed

    1990-01-01

    The allometric relationships between several size variables have been studied in population samples of the mussel Mytilus edulis from two offshore production platforms. Using these relationships, together with information on mussel packing densities available from the literature and previously documented data on the growth rates of these populations, it has been possible to predict the survivorship and potential biomass of

  9. Population dynamics model for Bulinus globosus, intermediate host for Schistosoma haematobium, in river habitats.

    PubMed

    Woolhouse, M E; Chandiwana, S K

    1990-03-01

    A mathematical model is developed that describes the population dynamics of the freshwater snail Bulinus globosus, an intermediate host of Schistosoma haematobium. The model is developed from field data recording abundance changes, recruitment rates, and mortality rates for adult snails in river habitats in Zimbabwe. Rate of recruitment into the adult population is dependent on temperature, incorporating a time lag to allow for growth to adult size. Mortality rate is also a function of temperature. A temperature-dependent model provides a useful description of changes in abundance during the dry season. Long-term population fluctuations are greatly affected by spates (flooding) associated with heavy rainfall. An estimate is made of the frequency and effects of spates. A simulation model that allows variable annual rainfall predicts fluctuations in snail abundance over two orders of magnitude over timescales of ten or more years. The role of density-dependent factors and the long-term persistence of the population are discussed. B. globosus population dynamics can be described as 'density vague'. PMID:1971492

  10. Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology

    PubMed Central

    Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Ballesteros, S.; Boto, J.; Kooi, B.; Mateus, L.

    2012-01-01

    We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus–host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors. PMID:23565331

  11. Effects of Supplemental Food on Population Dynamics of Cotton Rats, Sigmodon Hispidus

    E-print Network

    Doonan, Terry J.; Slade, Norman A.

    1995-04-01

    Variation in resource abundance affects population dynamics by altering demographic processes and interactions among individuals in the population. For small mammals, food is likely to be a critical resource. Population densities should vary...

  12. Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

    E-print Network

    Oli, Madan K.

    ) to population decline may be necessary. Implications quota would help reverse the population decline further. Additional keywords: elasticity analysisEffects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

  13. Population density and movement data for predicting mating systems of arboreal marsupials

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael A McCarthy; David B Lindenmayer

    1998-01-01

    A model, based on the number of encounters between male and female arboreal marsupials, was used to predict the rate of polygyny (the proportion of males fathering offspring with more than one female). The model predicted that the rate of polygyny would increase to an asymptote as population density increased. This result formalises previous suggestions that mating systems of arboreal

  14. Dynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ian W Taylor; Rune Linding; David Warde-Farley; Yongmei Liu; Catia Pesquita; Daniel Faria; Shelley Bull; Tony Pawson; Quaid Morris; Jeffrey L Wrana

    2009-01-01

    Changes in the biochemical wiring of oncogenic cells drives phenotypic transformations that directly affect disease outcome. Here we examine the dynamic structure of the human protein interaction network (interactome) to determine whether changes in the organization of the interactome can be used to predict patient outcome. An analysis of hub proteins identified inter- modular hub proteins that are co-expressed with

  15. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for PhD researchers (both permanent and postdoctoral) to push forward the frontiers of ocean of oceanic processes, construction and analysis of ocean models and forecast systems, and basic and applied

  16. Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Research Naval Research Laboratory The Naval Research Laboratory has openings for Ph.D. researchers to advance capabilities in ocean data assimilation and probabilistic, representation of ocean processes affecting temperature, salinity, and mixed- layer depth, uncertainty analysis

  17. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Dynamic Supply Chain Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    William B. Dunbar; S. Desa

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a recently developed theory for distributed nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a promising and exciting future domain for NMPC: dy- namic management of supply chain networks. Recent work by the first author provides a distributed implementation of NMPC for application in large scale systems comprised of cooperative dynamic

  18. Improved dynamic geomagnetic rigidity cutoff modeling: Testing predictive accuracy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mark A. Clilverd; Craig J. Rodger; Tracy Moffat-Griffin; Pekka T. Verronen

    2007-01-01

    In the polar atmosphere, significant chemical and ionization changes occur during solar proton events (SPEs). The access of solar protons to this region is limited by the dynamically changing geomagnetic field. In this study, we have used riometer absorption observations to investigate the accuracy of a model to predict Kp-dependent geomagnetic rigidity cutoffs, and hence the changing proton fluxes. The

  19. Improved dynamic geomagnetic rigidity cutoff modeling: Testing predictive accuracy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mark A. Clilverd; Craig J. Rodger; Tracy Moffat-Griffin; Pekka T. Verronen

    2007-01-01

    In the polar atmosphere, significant chemical and ionization changes occur during solar proton events (SPEs). The access of solar protons to this region is limited by the dynamically changing geomagnetic field. In this study, we have used riometer absorption observations to investigate the accuracy of a model to predict K p-dependent geomagnetic rigidity cutoffs, and hence the changing proton fluxes.

  20. Clinical time series prediction: Towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

    E-print Network

    Hauskrecht, Milos

    Clinical time series prediction: Towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework Zitao Liu temporal models of clinical time series is important for understand- ing of the patient condition. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data

  1. The Predictive Validity of Dynamic Assessment: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caffrey, Erin; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors report on a mixed-methods review of 24 studies that explores the predictive validity of dynamic assessment (DA). For 15 of the studies, they conducted quantitative analyses using Pearson's correlation coefficients. They descriptively examined the remaining studies to determine if their results were consistent with findings from the…

  2. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Dynamic distributed predictive learning models that preserve

    E-print Network

    Obradovic, Zoran

    models of recent interest are related to emergency admissions (Li et al. 2012) and hospital readmissionORIGINAL ARTICLE Dynamic distributed predictive learning models that preserve privacy for hospitals patient data from multiple hospitals can serve as a tool for suggestive knowledge in clinical decision

  3. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10·5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. PMID:24738826

  4. Predator effects on prey population dynamics in open systems.

    PubMed

    Peckarsky, Barbara L; Kerans, Billie L; Taylor, Brad W; McIntosh, Angus R

    2008-05-01

    Animal population dynamics in open systems are affected not only by agents of mortality and the influence of species interactions on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss rates of two mayfly species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience different abiotic conditions during larval development. Our goals were to generate hypotheses relating predation to variation in prey population dynamics and to evaluate alternative mechanisms to explain such variation. While neither loss rates nor abundance of the species that develops during snowmelt (Baetis bicaudatus) varied systematically with fish, loss rates of the species that develops during baseflow (Baetis B) were higher in streams containing brook trout than streams without fish; and surprisingly, larvae of this species were most abundant in trout streams. This counter-intuitive pattern could not be explained by a trophic cascade, because densities of intermediate predators (stoneflies) did not differ between fish and fishless streams and predation by trout on stoneflies was negligible. A statistical model estimated that higher recruitment and accelerated development enables Baetis B to maintain larger populations in trout streams despite higher mortality from predation. Experimental estimates suggested that predation by trout potentially accounts for natural losses of Baetis B, but not Baetis bicaudatus. Predation by stoneflies on Baetis is negligible in fish streams, but could make an important contribution to observed losses of both species in fishless streams. Non-predatory sources of loss were higher for B. bicaudatus in trout streams, and for Baetis B in fishless streams. We conclude that predation alone cannot explain variation in population dynamics of either species; and the relative importance of predation is species- and environment-specific compared to non-predatory losses, such as other agents of mortality and non-consumptive effects of predators. PMID:18322706

  5. Deciphering and prediction of plant dynamics under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Izawa, Takeshi

    2015-04-01

    Elucidation of plant dynamics under fluctuating natural environments is a challenging goal in plant physiology. Recently, using a computer statistics integrating a series of transcriptome data of field-grown rice leaves during an entire crop season and several corresponding environmental data such as solar radiation and ambient temperature, most parts of transcriptome have been modeled. This reveals the detailed contributions of developmental timing, circadian clocks and each environmental factor to transcriptome dynamics in the field and can predict transcriptome dynamics under given environments. Furthermore, some traits such as flowering time in natural environments have been shown to be predicted by mathematical models based on gene-networks parameterized with data obtained in the laboratory, and phenology models refined by knowledge of molecular genetics. New molecular physiology is beginning in plant science. PMID:25706440

  6. A Theory of Protein Dynamics to Predict NMR Relaxation

    PubMed Central

    Caballero-Manrique, Esther; Bray, Jenelle K.; Deutschman, William A.; Dahlquist, Frederick W.; Guenza, Marina G.

    2007-01-01

    We present a theoretical, site-specific, approach to predict protein subunit correlation times, as measured by NMR experiments of 1H-15N nuclear Overhauser effect, spin-lattice relaxation, and spin-spin relaxation. Molecular dynamics simulations are input to our equation of motion for protein dynamics, which is solved analytically to produce the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors that specify the NMR parameters. We directly compare our theoretical predictions to experiments and to simulation data for the signal transduction chemotaxis protein Y (CheY), which regulates the swimming response of motile bacteria. Our theoretical results are in good agreement with both simulations and experiments, without recourse to adjustable parameters. The theory is general, since it allows calculations of any dynamical property of interest. As an example, we present theoretical calculations of NMR order parameters and x-ray Debye-Waller temperature factors; both quantities show good agreement with experimental data. PMID:17766356

  7. Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassell, Michael P.; Comins, Hugh N.; Mayt, Robert M.

    1991-09-01

    MOST environments are spatially subdivided, or patchy, and there has been much interest in the relationship between the dynamics of populations at the local and regional (metapopulation) scales1. Here we study mathematical models for host-parasitoid interactions, where in each generation specified fractions (µN and µp, respectively) of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in each patch move to adjacent patches; in most previous work, the movement is not localized but is to any other patch2. These simple and biologically sensible models with limited diffusive dispersal exhibit a remarkable range of dynamic behaviour: the density of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in a two-dimensional array of patches may exhibit complex patterns of spiral waves or spatially chaotic variation, they may show static 'crystal lattice' patterns, or they may become extinct. This range of behaviour is obtained with the local dynamics being deterministically unstable, with a constant host reproductive rate and no density dependence in the movement patterns. The dynamics depend on the host reproductive rate, and on the values of the parameters µN and µp. The results are relatively insensitive to the details of the interactions; we get essentially the same results from the mathematically-explicit Nicholon-Bailey model of host-parasitoid interactions, and from a very general 'cellular automaton' model in which only qualitative rules are specified. We conclude that local movement in a patchy environment can help otherwise unstable host and parasitoid populations to persist together, but that the deterministically generated spatial patterns in population density can be exceedingly complex (and sometimes indistinguishable from random environmental fluctuations).

  8. An approach to predict risks to wildlife populations from mercury and other stressors.

    PubMed

    Nacci, Diane; Pelletier, Marguerite; Lake, Jim; Bennett, Rick; Nichols, John; Haebler, Romona; Grear, Jason; Kuhn, Anne; Copeland, Jane; Nicholson, Matthew; Walters, Steven; Munns, Wayne R

    2005-03-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (U.S. EPA NHEERL) is working cooperatively with environmental and conservation organizations to develop models to predict CH3Hg effects on populations of the common loon, Gavia immer. Specifically, a biologically-based toxicokinetic model is being used to extrapolate CH3Hg effects on the reproduction of a tested bird species, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), to the loon. Population models are being used to incorporate stressor effects on survival and reproduction into projections of loon population effects. Finally, habitat and spatially-explicit population models are being used to project results spatially, assess the relative importance of CH3Hg and non-chemical stressors, and produce testable predictions of the effects of biologically-available Hg on loon populations. This stepwise process provides an integrated approach to estimate the impact on wildlife populations of regulations that limit atmospherically-distributed Hg, and to develop risk-based population-level regulatory criteria. PMID:15931973

  9. Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

    2009-01-01

    Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (?) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of ? to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

  10. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

    PubMed Central

    Christiansen-Jucht, Céline; Erguler, Kamil; Shek, Chee Yan; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Parham, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a “standard” model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors. PMID:26030468

  11. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival.

    PubMed

    Christiansen-Jucht, Céline; Erguler, Kamil; Shek, Chee Yan; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Parham, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a "standard" model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors. PMID:26030468

  12. Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine-Banded Armadillos

    PubMed Central

    Loughry, William J.; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M.; Oli, Madan K.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992–2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for ?, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for ??=?0.1, to 1.03 for ??=?1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when ? ?0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with ?, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of ?. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction. PMID:23844183

  13. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  14. Orbit determination and prediction study for Dynamic Explorer 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, R. L.; Nakai, Y.; Doll, C. E.

    1983-01-01

    Definitive orbit determination accuracy and orbit prediction accuracy for the Dynamic Explorer-2 (DE-2) are studied using the trajectory determination system for the period within six weeks of spacecraft reentry. Baseline accuracies using standard orbit determination models and methods are established. A promising general technique for improving the orbit determination accuracy of high drag orbits, estimation of random drag variations at perigee passages, is investigated. This technique improved the fit to the tracking data by a factor of five and improved the solution overlap consistency by a factor of two during a period in which the spacecraft perigee altitude was below 200 kilometers. The results of the DE-2 orbit predictions showed that improvement in short term prediction accuracy reduces to the problem of predicting future drag scale factors: the smoothness of the solar 10.7 centimeter flux density suggests that this may be feasible.

  15. Phonon-Induced Population Dynamics and Intersystem Crossing in Nitrogen-Vacancy Centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldman, M. L.; Sipahigil, A.; Doherty, M. W.; Yao, N. Y.; Bennett, S. D.; Markham, M.; Twitchen, D. J.; Manson, N. B.; Kubanek, A.; Lukin, M. D.

    2015-04-01

    We report direct measurement of population dynamics in the excited state manifold of a nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center in diamond. We quantify the phonon-induced mixing rate and demonstrate that it can be completely suppressed at low temperatures. Further, we measure the intersystem crossing (ISC) rate for different excited states and develop a theoretical model that unifies the phonon-induced mixing and ISC mechanisms. We find that our model is in excellent agreement with experiment and that it can be used to predict unknown elements of the NV center's electronic structure. We discuss the model's implications for enhancing the NV center's performance as a room-temperature sensor.

  16. Phonon-induced population dynamics and intersystem crossing in nitrogen-vacancy centers.

    PubMed

    Goldman, M L; Sipahigil, A; Doherty, M W; Yao, N Y; Bennett, S D; Markham, M; Twitchen, D J; Manson, N B; Kubanek, A; Lukin, M D

    2015-04-10

    We report direct measurement of population dynamics in the excited state manifold of a nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center in diamond. We quantify the phonon-induced mixing rate and demonstrate that it can be completely suppressed at low temperatures. Further, we measure the intersystem crossing (ISC) rate for different excited states and develop a theoretical model that unifies the phonon-induced mixing and ISC mechanisms. We find that our model is in excellent agreement with experiment and that it can be used to predict unknown elements of the NV center's electronic structure. We discuss the model's implications for enhancing the NV center's performance as a room-temperature sensor. PMID:25910136

  17. Dynamics of neuronal populations: eigenfunction theory; some solvable cases.

    PubMed

    Sirovich, Lawrence

    2003-05-01

    A novel approach to cortical modelling was introduced by Knight and co-workers in 1996. In their presentation cortical dynamics is formulated in terms of interacting populations of neurons, a perspective that is in part motivated by modern cortical imaging. The approach may be regarded as the application of statistical mechanics to neuronal populations, and the simplest exemplar bears a kinship to the Boltzmann equation of kinetic theory. The disarming simplicity of this linear equation hides the complex behaviour it produces. A purpose of this paper is to investigate and reveal its intricacies by treating a series of solvable special cases. In particular we will focus on issues that relate to the spectral analysis of the underlying operators. A fairly thorough treatment is presented for a simple, but still useful example, that has important consequences for more general situations. PMID:12790184

  18. The spatial population dynamics of insects exploiting a patchy food resource

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. P. Dempster; D. A. Atkinson; O. D. Cheesman

    1995-01-01

    The population dynamics of insects in a spatially fragmented environment were studied by examining three main aspects of their ecology, namely, rates of local population extinction, density dependence in population change, and movements between populations. Ten phytophagous insects and seven parasitoids inhabiting the flowerheads of two herbaceous plants, Centaurea nigra and Arctium minus, were studied by monitoring their populations on

  19. Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

  20. Accuracy of Across-Environment Genome-Wide Prediction in Maize Nested Association Mapping Populations

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Zhigang; Tucker, Dominic M.; Wang, Daolong; Basten, Christopher J.; Ersoz, Elhan; Briggs, William H.; Lu, Jianwei; Li, Min; Gay, Gilles

    2013-01-01

    Most of previous empirical studies with genome-wide prediction were focused on within-environment prediction based on a single-environment (SE) model. In this study, we evaluated accuracy improvements of across-environment prediction by using genetic and residual covariance across correlated environments. Predictions with a multienvironment (ME) model were evaluated for two corn polygenic leaf structure traits, leaf length and leaf width, based on within-population (WP) and across-population (AP) experiments using a large maize nested association mapping data set consisting of 25 populations of recombinant inbred-lines. To make our study more applicable to plant breeding, two cross-validation schemes were used by evaluating accuracies of (CV1) predicting unobserved phenotypes of untested lines and (CV2) predicting unobserved phenotypes of lines that have been evaluated in some environments but not others. We concluded that (1) genome-wide prediction provided greater prediction accuracies than traditional quantitative trait loci-based prediction in both WP and AP and provided more advantages over quantitative trait loci -based prediction for WP than for AP. (2) Prediction accuracy with ME was significantly greater than that attained by SE in CV1 and CV2, and gains with ME over SE were greater in CV2 than in CV1. These gains were also greater in WP than in AP in both CV1 and CV2. (3) Gains with ME over SE attributed to genetic correlation between environments, with little effect from residual correlation. Impacts of marker density on predictions also were investigated in this study. PMID:23390602

  1. Using GRASS and Spatial Explicit Population dynamics Modelling as a conservation tool to manage grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in northern Italy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Clara Tattoni; Damiano G. Preatoni; Peter W. W. Lurz; Steven P. Rushton; Guido Tosi; Sandro Bertolino; Lucas A. Wauters

    2004-01-01

    A recently discovered population of the North American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinen- sis), introduced to Ticino Park, Lombardy (N Italy), is likely to spread into continuous prealpine broadleaf forests of Lombardy and the south of Switzerland. We used GRASS GIS and Spatially Explicit Population Dynamics Models as a conservation tool to predict the spread of grey squirrels and to test

  2. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  3. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  4. Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

    2014-01-01

    Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

  5. Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Rudicell, Rebecca S.; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E.; Learn, Gerald H.; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D.; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D. Anthony; Keele, Brandon F.; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Pusey, Anne E.; Wilson, Michael L.

    2010-01-01

    Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of ?6.5% to ?7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen. PMID:20886099

  6. Evolution of the Known Centaurs Population - Dynamical and Thermal Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarid, Gal

    2010-10-01

    The structural and thermal evolution of small Solar system bodies may be strongly dependent on their dynamical history and environment. Objects on planet-crossing orbits are prone to gravitational perturbations that de-stabilize their orbits. Such are the Centaurs, which are the transient population, between the relatively stable trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and the short-lived Jupiter family Comets (JFCs). This may indicate that these objects experience intermediate levels of internal processing, at different periods of their lives. Examining the evolution of several these Centaur objects, both in orbital and physical parameters, can help categorize the different states and origin and evolution scenarios in the outer Solar system. Determining the dynamical evolution of each object is achieved through statistical analysis of the results of multiple N-body integrations. This is achieved by using many clones of specific objects, with known orbital elements. Statistics of large clone samples of specific objects yield valuable information about their current states and future fates. Specifically, and with greater importance to thermal evolution, we focus on the dynamical lifetimes, survivability and mean orbital elements. The latter are considered during the relatively stable and non-diffusive phase of orbital evolution. Profiles of temperature, structure and composition are calculated utilizing our robust thermal evolution code several specific objects, which represent slightly varying dynamical groups, and for different orbits of the same object, which represent specific orbital evolution pathways. This has an influence on the internal stratified structure, through an adapting thermal response of the nucleus.

  7. Stochastic population dynamics in astrochemistry and aerosol science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losert-Valiente Kroon, C. M.

    Classical, non-equilibrium systems of diffusing species or entities undergoing depletion, evaporation and reaction processes are at the heart of many problems in Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Financial Mathematics. It is well known that fluctuations and correlations in statistical systems can have a profound influence on the macroscopic properties of the system. However, the traditional rate equations that describe the evolution of mean populations in time and space do not incorporate statistical fluctuations. This becomes an issue of great importance when population densities are low. In order to develop a stochastic description of birth-and-death processes beyond the mean field approximation I employ techniques in classical many-body Physics in a manner analogous to the treatment of quantum systems. I obtain promising results to understand and quantify the exact circumstances of the failure of the mean-field approximation in specific problems in Astrophysics, namely heterogeneous chemical reactions in interstellar clouds, and in Aerosol Science, namely heterogeneous nucleation processes, and deliver the means to manipulate the alternative stochastic framework according to the Doi-Peliti formalism. In this framework the mean population of a species is given by the average of a solution to a set of constraint equations over all realisations of the stochastic noise. The constraint equations are inhomogeneous stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative real or complex Gaussian noise. In general, these equations cannot be solved analytically. Therefore I resort to the numerical implementation of the Doi-Peliti formalism. The main code is written in the GNU C language, some algebraic calculations are performed by means of the MapleV package. In the case of large population densities the stochastic framework renders the same results as the mean field approximation whereas for low population densities its predictions differ substantially from the calculations using the traditional model.

  8. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burski?, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  9. Predicting HLA genotypes using unphased and flanking single-nucleotide polymorphisms in Han Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetic variation associated with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes has immunological functions and is associated with autoimmune diseases. To date, large-scale studies involving classical HLA genes have been limited by time-consuming and expensive HLA-typing technologies. To reduce these costs, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been used to predict HLA-allele types. Although HLA allelic distributions differ among populations, most prediction model of HLA genes are based on Caucasian samples, with few reported studies involving non-Caucasians. Results Our sample consisted of 437 Han Chinese with Affymetrix 5.0 and Illumina 550 K SNPs, of whom 214 also had data on Affymetrix 6.0 SNPs. All individuals had HLA typings at a 4-digit resolution. Using these data, we have built prediction model of HLA genes that are specific for a Han Chinese population. To optimize our prediction model of HLA genes, we analyzed a number of critical parameters, including flanking-region size, genotyping platform, and imputation. Predictive accuracies generally increased both with sample size and SNP density. Conclusions SNP data from the HapMap Project are about five times more dense than commercially available genotype chip data. Using chips to genotype our samples, however, only reduced the accuracy of our HLA predictions by only ~3%, while saving a great deal of time and expense. We demonstrated that classical HLA alleles can be predicted from SNP genotype data with a high level of accuracy (80.37% (HLA-B) ~95.79% (HLA-DQB1)) in a Han Chinese population. This finding offers new opportunities for researchers in obtaining HLA genotypes via prediction using their already existing chip datasets. Since the genetic variation structure (e.g. SNP, HLA, Linkage disequilibrium) is different between Han Chinese and Caucasians, and has strong impact in building prediction models for HLA genes, our findings emphasize the importance of building ethnic-specific models when analyzing human populations. PMID:24476119

  10. Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

    2015-01-01

    Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

  11. The role of ethnicity in predicting diabetes risk at the population level

    PubMed Central

    Rosella, Laura C.; Mustard, Cameron A.; Stukel, Therese A.; Corey, Paul; Hux, Jan; Roos, Les; Manuel, Douglas G.

    2012-01-01

    Background. The current form of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) includes a non-specific category of ethnicity in concordance with publicly data available. Given the importance of ethnicity in influencing diabetes risk and its significance in a multi-ethnic population, it is prudent to determine its influence on a population-based risk prediction tool. Objective. To apply and compare the DPoRT with a modified version that includes detailed ethnic information in Canada's largest and most ethnically diverse province. Methods. Two additional diabetes prediction models were created: a model that contained predictors specific to the following ethnic groups – White, Black, Asian, south Asian, and First Nation; and a reference model which did not include a term for ethnicity. In addition to discrimination and calibration, 10-year diabetes incidence was compared. The algorithms were developed in Ontario using the 1996–1997 National Population Health Survey (N = 19,861) and validated in the 2000/2001 Canadian Community Health Survey (N = 26,465). Results. All non-white ethnicities were associated with higher risk for developing diabetes with south Asians having the highest risk. Discrimination was similar (0.75–0.77) and sufficient calibration was maintained for all models except the detailed ethnicity models for males. DPoRT produced the lowest overall ratio between observed and predicted diabetes risk. DPoRT identified more high risk cases than the other algorithms in males, whereas in females both DPoRT and the full ethnicity model identified more high risk cases. Overall DPoRT and full ethnicity algorithms were very similar in terms of predictive accuracy and population risk. Conclusion. Although from the individual risk perspective, incorporating information on ethnicity is important, when predicting new cases of diabetes at the population level and accounting for other risk factors, detailed ethnic information did not improve the discrimination and accuracy of the model or identify significantly more diabetes cases in the population. PMID:22292745

  12. The Dynamics of Genetic Draft in Rapidly Adapting Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M.

    2013-01-01

    The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of “genetic draft” affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie’s original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald–Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation. PMID:24002646

  13. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  14. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are highly correlated to an immediate increase in range displacement between 5-day observations, suggesting that Svalbard reindeer use space opportunistically in winter, a behavioral trait that may buffer some of the negative effects of the expected climate change in the Arctic.

  15. Victims of child abuse and predicted abusive disciplinary styles in a middle to upper class population 

    E-print Network

    Brannon, Anna Margaret

    1985-01-01

    VICTIMS OF CHILD ABUSE AND PREDICIED ABUSIVE DISCIPIINARY STYLES IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER CLASS POPULATION A Thesis ANNA MARGAREl' BRANNON Subnitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1985 Major Subject: Psychology VICTIMS OF CHILD ABUSE AND PREDICTED ABUSIVE DISCIPLINARY STYLES IN A MIDDLE 'IO UPPER CLASS POPULATION A 'Ihesis by ANNA ~ BRANNON Approved as to style and content by: (harlene Mu...

  16. Fat-free mass predictions through a Bayesian Network enable body composition comparisons in various populations.

    PubMed

    Mioche, Laurence; Brigand, Alain; Bidot, Caroline; Denis, Jean-Baptiste

    2011-08-01

    The respective contribution of fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass to body weight (Wgt) is a relevant indicator of risk for major public health issues. In an earlier study, a Bayesian Network (BN) was designed to predict FFM from a DXA database (1999-2004 NHANES, n = 10,402) with easily accessible variables [sex, age, Wgt, and height (Hgt)]. The objective of the present study was to assess the robustness of these BN predictions in different population contexts (age, BMI, ethnicity, etc.) when covariables were stochastically deduced from population-based distributions. BN covariables were adjusted to 82 published distributions for age, Wgt, and Hgt from 16 studies assessing body composition. Anthropometric adjustments required a surrogate database (n = 23,411) to get the missing correlation between published Wgt and Hgt distributions. Published BMI distributions and their predicted BN counterparts were correlated (R(2) = 0.99; P < 0.001). Predicted FFM distributions were closely adjusted to their published counterparts for both sexes between 20 and 79 y old, with some discrepancies for Asian populations. In addition, BN predictions revealed a very good agreement between FFM assessed in different population contexts. The mean difference between published FFM values (61.1 ± 3.44 and 42.7 ± 3.32 kg for men and women, respectively) and BN predictions (61.6 ± 3.11 and 42.4 ± 2.76 kg for men and women, respectively) was <1% when FFM was assessed by DXA; the difference rose to 3.6% when FFM was assessed by bioelectric impedance analysis or by densitometry methods. These results suggest that it is possible, within certain anthropometric limitations, to use BN predictions as a complementary body composition analysis for large populations. PMID:21715469

  17. Uncertainty estimation and prediction for interdisciplinary ocean dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Lermusiaux, Pierre F.J. [Harvard University, Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Pierce Hall G2A, 29 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02318 (United States)]. E-mail: pierrel@pacific.harvard.edu

    2006-09-01

    Scientific computations for the quantification, estimation and prediction of uncertainties for ocean dynamics are developed and exemplified. Primary characteristics of ocean data, models and uncertainties are reviewed and quantitative data assimilation concepts defined. Challenges involved in realistic data-driven simulations of uncertainties for four-dimensional interdisciplinary ocean processes are emphasized. Equations governing uncertainties in the Bayesian probabilistic sense are summarized. Stochastic forcing formulations are introduced and a new stochastic-deterministic ocean model is presented. The computational methodology and numerical system, Error Subspace Statistical Estimation, that is used for the efficient estimation and prediction of oceanic uncertainties based on these equations is then outlined. Capabilities of the ESSE system are illustrated in three data-assimilative applications: estimation of uncertainties for physical-biogeochemical fields, transfers of ocean physics uncertainties to acoustics, and real-time stochastic ensemble predictions with assimilation of a wide range of data types. Relationships with other modern uncertainty quantification schemes and promising research directions are discussed.

  18. Aftershock Prediction for High-Frequency Financial Markets' Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldovin, Fulvio; Camana, Francesco; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.; Zamparo, Marco

    The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.

  19. Predictive equations for total lung capacity and residual volume calculated from radiographs in a random sample of the Michigan population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K H Kilburn; R H Warshaw; J C Thornton; K Thornton; A Miller

    1992-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Published predicted values for total lung capacity and residual volume are often based on a small number of subjects and derive from different populations from predicted spirometric values. Equations from the only two large studies gave smaller predicted values for total lung capacity than the smaller studies. A large number of subjects have been studied from a population which

  20. Ecological and life history characteristics predict population genetic divergence of two salmonids in the same landscape.

    PubMed

    Whiteley, Andrew R; Spruell, Paul; Allendorf, Fred W

    2004-12-01

    Ecological and life history characteristics such as population size, dispersal pattern, and mating system mediate the influence of genetic drift and gene flow on population subdivision. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) differ markedly in spawning location, population size and mating system. Based on these differences, we predicted that bull trout would have reduced genetic variation within and greater differentiation among populations compared with mountain whitefish. To test this hypothesis, we used microsatellite markers to determine patterns of genetic divergence for each species in the Clark Fork River, Montana, USA. As predicted, bull trout had a much greater proportion of genetic variation partitioned among populations than mountain whitefish. Among all sites, FST was seven times greater for bull trout (FST = 0.304 for bull trout, 0.042 for mountain whitefish. After removing genetically differentiated high mountain lake sites for each species FST, was 10 times greater for bull trout (FST = 0.176 for bull trout; FST = 0.018 for mountain whitefish). The same characteristics that affect dispersal patterns in these species also lead to predictions about the amount and scale of adaptive divergence among populations. We provide a theoretical framework that incorporates variation in ecological and life history factors, neutral divergence, and adaptive divergence to interpret how neutral and adaptive divergence might be correlates of ecological and life history factors. PMID:15548282

  1. Anti-social cells: predicting the influence of E-cadherin loss on the growth of epithelial cell populations.

    PubMed

    Walker, D C; Georgopoulos, N T; Southgate, J

    2010-02-01

    The characteristics of biological tissues are determined by the interactions of large numbers of autonomous cells. These interactions can be mediated remotely by diffusive biochemical factors, or by direct cell-cell contact. E-cadherin is a protein expressed on the surface of normal epithelial cells that plays a key role in mediating intercellular adhesion via calcium-dependent homotypic interactions. E-cadherin is a metastasis-suppressor protein and its loss of function is associated with malignant progression. The purpose of this study was to apply an agent-based simulation paradigm in order to examine the emergent growth properties of mixed populations consisting of normal and E-cadherin defective cells in monolayer cell culture. Specifically, we have investigated the dynamics of normal cell:cell interactions in terms of intercellular adhesion and migration, and have used a simplified rule to represent the concepts of juxtacrine epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) activation and subsequent effect on cell proliferation. This cellular level control determines the overall population growth in a simulated experiment. Our approach provides a tool for modelling the development of defined biological abnormalities in epithelial and other biological tissues, raising novel predictions for future experimental testing. The results predict that even a relatively small number of abnormal ('anti-social') cells can modify the rate of the total population expansion, but the magnitude of this effect also depends on the extrinsic (culture) environment. In addition to directly influencing population dynamics, 'anti-social' cells can also disrupt the behaviour of the normal cells around them. PMID:19852973

  2. Efficient Monitoring of Dynamic Tag Populations in RFID Systems Qingjun Xiao, Kai Bu, Bin Xiao

    E-print Network

    Xiao, Bin

    be inventoried as a population, at the speed of several milliseconds per tag. This paper studies an importantEfficient Monitoring of Dynamic Tag Populations in RFID Systems Qingjun Xiao, Kai Bu, Bin Xiao to monitor larger-scale tag populations in a dynamic environment to get updated tag information. This paper

  3. Modeling the Population Dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an Elevational Gradient in Hawaii

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jorge A. Ahumada; Dennis Lapointe; Michael D. Samuel

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures

  4. Temperature Effects on the Dynamics of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Laboratory

    E-print Network

    Juliano, Steven A.

    ARTICLE Temperature Effects on the Dynamics of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations the dynamics of caged populations of Aedes albopictus (Skuse). All cages were equipped with plastic beakers and by enhancing colonization due to rapid population growth. KEY WORDS Aedes albopictus, rate of increase

  5. The dynamics of an infectious disease in a population with birth pulses

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. G. Roberts; R. R. Kao

    1998-01-01

    In most models of population dynamics increases in population due to births are assumed to be time-independent, but many species of wild animal give birth only during a single period of the year. We propose a model for the dynamics of a fatal infectious disease in a wild animal population for which births occur in a single pulse once per

  6. 479BOOK REVIEW Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis.

    E-print Network

    Holyoak, Marcel

    479BOOK REVIEW Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. PETER TURCHIN and population ecol- ogy. In this remarkable book, Peter Turchin suggests a brave new synthesis for temporal temporal population dynamics. The book comes as a breath of fresh air on a topic that has (in my opinion

  7. Dynamic connectivity at rest predicts attention task performance.

    PubMed

    Madhyastha, Tara M; Askren, Mary K; Boord, Peter; Grabowski, Thomas J

    2015-02-01

    Consistent spatial patterns of coherent activity, representing large-scale networks, have been reliably identified in multiple populations. Most often, these studies have examined "stationary" connectivity. However, there is a growing recognition that there is a wealth of information in the time-varying dynamics of networks which has neural underpinnings, which changes with age and disease and that supports behavior. Using factor analysis of overlapping sliding windows across 25 participants with Parkinson disease (PD) and 21 controls (ages 41-86), we identify factors describing the covarying correlations of regions (dynamic connectivity) within attention networks and the default mode network, during two baseline resting-state and task runs. Cortical regions that support attention networks are affected early in PD, motivating the potential utility of dynamic connectivity as a sensitive way to characterize physiological disruption to these networks. We show that measures of dynamic connectivity are more reliable than comparable measures of stationary connectivity. Factors in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal task control network, obtained at rest, are consistently related to the alerting and orienting reaction time effects in the subsequent Attention Network Task. In addition, the same relationship between the same DAN factor and the alerting effect was present during tasks. Although reliable, dynamic connectivity was not invariant, and changes between factor scores across sessions were related to changes in accuracy. In summary, patterns of time-varying correlations among nodes in an intrinsic network have a stability that has functional relevance. PMID:25014419

  8. Dynamic Connectivity at Rest Predicts Attention Task Performance

    PubMed Central

    Askren, Mary K.; Boord, Peter; Grabowski, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Consistent spatial patterns of coherent activity, representing large-scale networks, have been reliably identified in multiple populations. Most often, these studies have examined “stationary” connectivity. However, there is a growing recognition that there is a wealth of information in the time-varying dynamics of networks which has neural underpinnings, which changes with age and disease and that supports behavior. Using factor analysis of overlapping sliding windows across 25 participants with Parkinson disease (PD) and 21 controls (ages 41–86), we identify factors describing the covarying correlations of regions (dynamic connectivity) within attention networks and the default mode network, during two baseline resting-state and task runs. Cortical regions that support attention networks are affected early in PD, motivating the potential utility of dynamic connectivity as a sensitive way to characterize physiological disruption to these networks. We show that measures of dynamic connectivity are more reliable than comparable measures of stationary connectivity. Factors in the dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal task control network, obtained at rest, are consistently related to the alerting and orienting reaction time effects in the subsequent Attention Network Task. In addition, the same relationship between the same DAN factor and the alerting effect was present during tasks. Although reliable, dynamic connectivity was not invariant, and changes between factor scores across sessions were related to changes in accuracy. In summary, patterns of time-varying correlations among nodes in an intrinsic network have a stability that has functional relevance. PMID:25014419

  9. Predicting local adaptation in fragmented plant populations: implications for restoration genetics

    PubMed Central

    Pickup, Melinda; Field, David L; Rowell, David M; Young, Andrew G

    2012-01-01

    Understanding patterns and correlates of local adaptation in heterogeneous landscapes can provide important information in the selection of appropriate seed sources for restoration. We assessed the extent of local adaptation of fitness components in 12 population pairs of the perennial herb Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) and examined whether spatial scale (0.7–600 km), environmental distance, quantitative (QST) and neutral (FST) genetic differentiation, and size of the local and foreign populations could predict patterns of adaptive differentiation. Local adaptation varied among populations and fitness components. Including all population pairs, local adaptation was observed for seedling survival, but not for biomass, while foreign genotype advantage was observed for reproduction (number of inflorescences). Among population pairs, local adaptation increased with QST and local population size for biomass. QST was associated with environmental distance, suggesting ecological selection for phenotypic divergence. However, low FST and variation in population structure in small populations demonstrates the interaction of gene flow and drift in constraining local adaptation in R. leptorrhynchoides. Our study indicates that for species in heterogeneous landscapes, collecting seed from large populations from similar environments to candidate sites is likely to provide the most appropriate seed sources for restoration. PMID:23346235

  10. Rhythmic Manipulation of Objects with Complex Dynamics: Predictability over Chaos

    PubMed Central

    Nasseroleslami, Bahman; Hasson, Christopher J.; Sternad, Dagmar

    2014-01-01

    The study of object manipulation has been largely confined to discrete tasks, where accuracy, mechanical effort, or smoothness were examined to explain subjects' preferred movements. This study investigated a rhythmic manipulation task, which involved continuous interaction with a nonlinear object that led to unpredictable object behavior. Using a simplified virtual version of the task of carrying a cup of coffee, we studied how this unpredictable object behavior affected the selected strategies. The experiment was conducted in a virtual set-up, where subjects moved a cup with a ball inside, modeled by cart-and-pendulum dynamics. Inverse dynamics calculations of the system showed that performing the task with different amplitudes and relative phases required different force profiles and rendered the object's dynamics with different degrees of predictability (quantified by Mutual Information between the applied force and the cup kinematics and its sensitivity). Subjects (n?=?8) oscillated the virtual cup between two targets via a robotic manipulandum, paced by a metronome at 1 Hz for 50 trials, each lasting 45 s. They were free to choose their movement amplitude and relative phase between the ball and cup. Experimental results showed that subjects increased their movement amplitudes, which rendered the interactions with the object more predictable and with lower sensitivity to the execution variables. These solutions were associated with higher average exerted force and lower object smoothness, contradicting common expectations from studies on discrete object manipulation and unrestrained movements. Instead, the findings showed that humans selected strategies with higher predictability of interaction dynamics. This finding expressed that humans seek movement strategies where force and kinematics synchronize to repeatable patterns that may require less sensorimotor information processing. PMID:25340581

  11. Population dynamics of a meiotic/mitotic expansion model for the fragile X syndrome

    SciTech Connect

    Ashley, A.E.; Sherman, S.L. [Emory Univ. School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    1995-12-01

    A model to explain the mutational process and population dynamics of the fragile X syndrome is presented. The mutational mechanism was assumed to be a multi-pathway, multistep process. Expansion of CGG repeats was based on an underlying biological process and was assumed to occur at two time points: meiosis and early embryonic development (mitosis). Meiotic expansion was assumed to occur equally in oogenesis and spermatogenesis, while mitotic expansion was restricted to somatic, or constitutional, alleles of maternal origin. Testable hypotheses were predicted by this meiotic/mitotic model. First, parental origin of mutation is predicted to be associated with the risk of a woman to have a full-mutation child. Second, {open_quotes}contractions{close_quotes} seen in premutation male transmissions are predicted not to be true contractions in repeat size, but a consequence of the lack of mitotic expansion in paternally derived alleles. Third, a portion of full-mutation males should have full-mutation alleles in their sperm, due to the lack of complete selection against the full-mutation female. Fourth, a specific premutation-allele frequency distribution is predicted and differs from that based on models assuming only meiotic expansion. Last, it is predicted that {approximately}65 generations are required to achieve equilibrium, but this depends greatly on the expansion probabilities. 42 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Population dynamics of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) across a nitrogen-amended landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, J.E.; Hellgren, E.C.; Jorgensen, E.E.; Tunnell, S.J.; Engle, D.M.; Leslie, David M., Jr.

    2003-01-01

    We conducted a mark-recapture experiment to examine the population dynamics of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) in response to low-level nitrogen amendments (16.4 kg nitrogen/ha per year) and exclosure fencing in an old-field grassland. The experimental design consisted of sixteen 0.16-ha plots with 4 replicates of each treatment combination. We predicted that densities, reproductive success, movement probabilities, and survival rates of cotton rats would be greater on nitrogen-amended plots because of greater aboveground biomass and canopy cover. Population densities of cotton rats tended to be highest on fenced nitrogen plots, but densities on unfenced nitrogen plots were similar to those on control and fenced plots. We observed no distinct patterns in survival rates, reproductive success, or movement probabilities with regard to nitrogen treatments. However, survival rates and reproductive success tended to be higher for cotton rats on fenced plots than for those on unfenced plots and this was likely attributable to decreased predation on fenced plots. As low-level nitrogen amendments continue to be applied, we predict that survival, reproduction, and population-growth rates of cotton rats on control plots, especially fenced plots with no nitrogen amendment, will eventually exceed those on nitrogen-amended plots as a result of higher plant-species diversity, greater food availability, and better quality cover.

  13. Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

    PubMed Central

    Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

  14. Multi-population genomic prediction using a multi-task Bayesian learning model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Genomic prediction in multiple populations can be viewed as a multi-task learning problem where tasks are to derive prediction equations for each population and multi-task learning property can be improved by sharing information across populations. The goal of this study was to develop a multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction with a strategy to effectively share information across populations. Simulation studies and real data from Holstein and Ayrshire dairy breeds with phenotypes on five milk production traits were used to evaluate the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model and compare with a single-task model and a simple data pooling method. Results A multi-task Bayesian learning model was proposed for multi-population genomic prediction. Information was shared across populations through a common set of latent indicator variables while SNP effects were allowed to vary in different populations. Both simulation studies and real data analysis showed the effectiveness of the multi-task model in improving genomic prediction accuracy for the smaller Ayshire breed. Simulation studies suggested that the multi-task model was most effective when the number of QTL was small (n?=?20), with an increase of accuracy by up to 0.09 when QTL effects were lowly correlated between two populations (??=?0.2), and up to 0.16 when QTL effects were highly correlated (??=?0.8). When QTL genotypes were included for training and validation, the improvements were 0.16 and 0.22, respectively, for scenarios of the low and high correlation of QTL effects between two populations. When the number of QTL was large (n?=?200), improvement was small with a maximum of 0.02 when QTL genotypes were not included for genomic prediction. Reduction in accuracy was observed for the simple pooling method when the number of QTL was small and correlation of QTL effects between the two populations was low. For the real data, the multi-task model achieved an increase of accuracy between 0 and 0.07 in the Ayrshire validation set when 28,206 SNPs were used, while the simple data pooling method resulted in a reduction of accuracy for all traits except for protein percentage. When 246,668 SNPs were used, the accuracy achieved from the multi-task model increased by 0 to 0.03, while using the pooling method resulted in a reduction of accuracy by 0.01 to 0.09. In the Holstein population, the three methods had similar performance. Conclusions Results in this study suggest that the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction is effective and has the potential to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction. PMID:24884927

  15. Status, Population Dynamics, and Future Prospects of the Endangered Kootenai River White Sturgeon Population with and without Hatchery Intervention

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Vaughn L. Paragamian; Raymond C. P. Beamesderfer; Susan C. Ireland

    2005-01-01

    Synthesis of sampling data from 1977 through 2001, including extensive mark–recapture data, provided a comprehensive and current picture of the status, population dynamics, and future prospects of the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus. Natural recruitment was inconsistent in the 1960s, and with the additional impact of Libby Dam since the 1970s, the wild population now consists of an

  16. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

  17. 213 WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    2003-01-01

    213© WILDLIFE BIOLOGY · 9:3 (2003) The population dynamics of mountain goats Oreamnos americanus and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations Alejandro Gonzalez Voyer, Kirby G. Smith & Marco and unhunted mountain goat Oreamnos americanus populations. - Wildl. Biol. 9: 213-218. Native populations

  18. The spatial population dynamics of insects exploiting a patchy food resource

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. P. Dempster; D. A. Atkinson; M. C. French

    1995-01-01

    The population dynamics of ten species of phytophagous insects and seven parasitoids inhabiting the flowerheads of two herbaceous plants, Centaurea nigra and Arctium minus, were studied, and three main aspects of their ecology were examined, namely, rates of population extinction, density dependence in population changes from one generation to the next, and movements between populations. The study was based on

  19. Zooplankton population dynamics in experimentally toxified pond ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Sierszen, M.E.; Boston, H.L.; Horn, M.J.

    1989-01-01

    To evaluate ecosystem response to and recovery from toxic contamination, we added phenolic compounds to a series of experimental ponds. Toxicants were added repeatedly in a temporally staggered sequence to evaluate the influence of seasonal factors and previous exposure history on the responses to toxicant stress. We hypothesized that seasonal changes in ecosystem structure, e.g. shifts in the relative importance of ''top-down'' and ''bottom-up'' controls on energy flow, would influence the system-level responses to the toxicant. Information from these experiments is being incorporated into models that predict ecological risk and system-level behavior under toxicant stress. Here we focus on the responses of zooplankton populations to toxicants, and factors which may affect the apparent severity of toxic effects. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  20. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  1. Predicting oscillatory dynamics in the movement of territorial animals

    PubMed Central

    Giuggioli, L.; Potts, J. R.; Harris, S.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding ecological processes relies upon the knowledge of the dynamics of each individual component. In the context of animal population ecology, the way animals move and interact is of fundamental importance in explaining a variety of observed patterns. Here, we present a theoretical investigation on the movement dynamics of interacting scent-marking animals. We study how the movement statistics of territorial animals is responsible for the appearance of damped oscillations in the mean square displacement (MSD) of the animals. This non-monotonicity is shown to depend on one dimensionless parameter, given by the ratio of the correlation distance between successive steps to the size of the territory. As that parameter increases, the time dependence of the animal's MSD displays a transition from monotonic, characteristic of Brownian walks, to non-monotonic, characteristic of highly correlated walks. The results presented here represent a novel way of determining the degree of persistence in animal movement processes within confined regions. PMID:22262814

  2. Predicting sports scoring dynamics with restoration and anti-persistence

    E-print Network

    Peel, Leto

    2015-01-01

    Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and nontrivial scoring dynamics. The resulting gameplay and efforts to predict its evolution are the object of great interest to both sports professionals and enthusiasts. In this paper, we consider two online prediction problems for team sports:~given a partially observed game Who will score next? and ultimately Who will win? We present novel interpretable generative models of within-game scoring that allow for dependence on lead size (restoration) and on the last team to score (anti-persistence). We then apply these models to comprehensive within-game scoring data for four sports leagues over a ten year period. By assessing these models' relative goodness-of-fit we shed new light on the underlying mechanisms driving the observed scoring dynamics of each sport. Furthermore, in both p...

  3. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population

    E-print Network

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco

    Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population JOAQUI diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental

  4. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  5. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

  6. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  7. Emergence of Drug-Resistant Influenza Virus: Population Dynamical Considerations

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Roland R. Regoes (Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich; )

    2006-04-21

    Access to the article is free, however registration and sign-in are required: Given the considerable challenges to the rapid development of an effective vaccine against influenza, antiviral agents will play an important role as a first-line defense if a new pandemic occurs. The large-scale use of drugs for chemoprophylaxis and treatment will impose strong selection for the evolution of drug-resistant strains. The ensuing transmission of those strains could substantially limit the effectiveness of the drugs as a first-line defense. Summarizing recent data on the rate at which the treatment of influenza infection generates resistance de novo and on the transmission fitness of resistant virus, we discuss possible implications for the epidemiological spread of drug resistance in the context of an established population dynamic model.

  8. Neural Population Dynamics Modeled by Mean-Field Graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozma, Robert; Puljic, Marko

    2011-09-01

    In this work we apply random graph theory approach to describe neural population dynamics. There are important advantages of using random graph theory approach in addition to ordinary and partial differential equations. The mathematical theory of large-scale random graphs provides an efficient tool to describe transitions between high- and low-dimensional spaces. Recent advances in studying neural correlates of higher cognition indicate the significance of sudden changes in space-time neurodynamics, which can be efficiently described as phase transitions in the neuropil medium. Phase transitions are rigorously defined mathematically on random graph sequences and they can be naturally generalized to a class of percolation processes called neuropercolation. In this work we employ mean-field graphs with given vertex degree distribution and edge strength distribution. We demonstrate the emergence of collective oscillations in the style of brains.

  9. Particle tagging and its implications for stellar population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Bret, Theo Le; Cooper, Andrew P; Frenk, Carlos; Zolotov, Adi; Brooks, Alyson M; Governato, Fabio; Parry, Owen H

    2015-01-01

    We establish a controlled comparison between the properties of galactic stellar halos obtained with hydrodynamical simulations and with `particle tagging'. Tagging is a fast way to obtain stellar population dynamics: instead of tracking gas and star formation, it `paints' stars directly onto a suitably defined subset of dark matter particles in a collisionless, dark-matter-only simulation.Our study shows that there are conditions under which particle tagging generates good fits to the hydrodynamical stellar density profiles of a central Milky-Way-like galaxy and its most prominent substructure. Phase-space diffusion processes are crucial to reshaping the distribution of stars in infalling spheroidal systems and hence the final stellar halo. We conclude that the success of any particular tagging scheme hinges on this diffusion being taken into account, at a minimum by making use of `live' tagging schemes, in which particles are regularly tagged throughout the evolution of a galaxy.

  10. On mathematical theory of selection: continuous time population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Karev, Georgiy P

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical theory of selection is developed within the frameworks of general models of inhomogeneous populations with continuous time. Methods that allow us to study the distribution dynamics under natural selection and to construct explicit solutions of the models are developed. All statistical characteristics of interest, such as the mean values of the fitness or any trait can be computed effectively, and the results depend in a crucial way on the initial distribution. The developed theory provides an effective method for solving selection systems; it reduces the initial complex model to a special system of ordinary differential equations (the escort system). Applications of the method to the Price equations are given; the solutions of some particular inhomogeneous Malthusian, Ricker and logistic-like models used but not solved in the literature are derived in explicit form. PMID:19283384

  11. Urban aerosols harbor diverse and dynamic bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Eoin L; DeSantis, Todd Z; Parker, Jordan P Moberg; Zubietta, Ingrid X; Piceno, Yvette M; Andersen, Gary L

    2007-01-01

    Considering the importance of its potential implications for human health, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability, surprisingly little is known regarding the composition or dynamics of the atmosphere's microbial inhabitants. Using a custom high-density DNA microarray, we detected and monitored bacterial populations in two U.S. cities over 17 weeks. These urban aerosols contained at least 1,800 diverse bacterial types, a richness approaching that of some soil bacterial communities. We also reveal the consistent presence of bacterial families with pathogenic members including environmental relatives of select agents of bioterrorism significance. Finally, using multivariate regression techniques, we demonstrate that temporal and meteorological influences can be stronger factors than location in shaping the biological composition of the air we breathe. PMID:17182744

  12. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  13. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

    PubMed

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-08-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

  14. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species

    PubMed Central

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. PMID:23837841

  15. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models.

    PubMed

    Rodhouse, Thomas J; Ormsbee, Patricia C; Irvine, Kathryn M; Vierling, Lee A; Szewczak, Joseph M; Vierling, Kerri T

    2012-06-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America. PMID:22827121

  16. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure.

    PubMed

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M; Engelhardt, Barbara E

    2015-06-30

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  17. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure

    PubMed Central

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.

    2015-01-01

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  18. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Crone

    1995-01-01

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low

  19. Modelling the impact of marine reserves on a population with depensatory dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, Matthew H; Kim, Peter S

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we use a spatially implicit, stage-structured model to evaluate marine reserve effectiveness for a fish population exhibiting depensatory (strong Allee) effects in its dynamics. We examine the stability and sensitivity of the equilibria of the modelled system with regards to key system parameters and find that for a reasonable set of parameters, populations can be protected from a collapse if a small percentage of the total area is set aside in reserves. Furthermore, the overall abundance of the population is predicted to achieve a maximum at a certain ratio A of reserve area to fished area, which depends heavily on the other system parameters such as the net export rate of fish from the marine reserves to the fished areas. This finding runs contrary to the contested "equivalence at best" result when comparing fishery management through traditional catch or effort control and management through marine reserves. Lastly, we analyse the problem from a bioeconomics perspective by computing the optimal harvesting policy using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, which suggests that the value for A which maximizes the optimal equilibrium fishery yield also maximizes population abundance when the cost per unit harvest is constant, but can increase substantially when the cost per unit harvest increases with the area being harvested. PMID:25124763

  20. Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Culicoides imicola KIEFFER, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is the principal vector of Bluetongue disease in the Mediterranean basin, Africa and Asia. Previous studies have identified a range of eco-climatic variables associated with the distribution of C. imicola, and these relationships have been used to predict the large-scale distribution of the vector. However, these studies are not temporally-explicit and can not be used to predict the seasonality in C. imicola abundances. Between 2001 and 2006, longitudinal entomological surveillance was carried out throughout Italy, and provided a comprehensive spatio-temporal dataset of C. imicola catches in Onderstepoort-type black-light traps, in particular in Sardinia where the species is considered endemic. Methods We built a dynamic model that allows describing the effect of eco-climatic indicators on the monthly abundances of C. imicola in Sardinia. Model precision and accuracy were evaluated according to the influence of process and observation errors. Results A first-order autoregressive cofactor, a digital elevation model and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST)/or temperatures acquired from weather stations explained ~77% of the variability encountered in the samplings carried out in 9 sites during 6?years. Incorporating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or rainfall did not increase the model's predictive capacity. On average, dynamics simulations showed good accuracy (predicted vs. observed r corr?=?0.9). Although the model did not always reproduce the absolute levels of monthly abundances peaks, it succeeded in reproducing the seasonality in population level and allowed identifying the periods of low abundances and with no apparent activity. On that basis, we mapped C. imicola monthly distribution over the entire Sardinian region. Conclusions This study demonstrated prospects for modelling data arising from Culicoides longitudinal entomological surveillance. The framework explicitly incorporates the influence of eco-climatic factors on population growth rates and accounts for observation and process errors. Upon validation, such a model could be used to predict monthly population abundances on the basis of environmental conditions, and hence can potentially reduce the amount of entomological surveillance. PMID:23174043

  1. A dynamic programming algorithm for RNA structure prediction including pseudoknots.

    PubMed

    Rivas, E; Eddy, S R

    1999-02-01

    We describe a dynamic programming algorithm for predicting optimal RNA secondary structure, including pseudoknots. The algorithm has a worst case complexity of O(N6) in time and O(N4) in storage. The description of the algorithm is complex, which led us to adopt a useful graphical representation (Feynman diagrams) borrowed from quantum field theory. We present an implementation of the algorithm that generates the optimal minimum energy structure for a single RNA sequence, using standard RNA folding thermodynamic parameters augmented by a few parameters describing the thermodynamic stability of pseudoknots. We demonstrate the properties of the algorithm by using it to predict structures for several small pseudoknotted and non-pseudoknotted RNAs. Although the time and memory demands of the algorithm are steep, we believe this is the first algorithm to be able to fold optimal (minimum energy) pseudoknotted RNAs with the accepted RNA thermodynamic model. PMID:9925784

  2. The population dynamics of nitrifiers in ammonium-rich systems.

    PubMed

    Raszka, Anna; Surmacz-Górska, Joanna; Zabczy?ski, Sebastian; Miksch, Korneliusz

    2011-12-01

    Non-optimal pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, the presence of toxic substances, or the influence of grazers are known to cause disturbances in nitrification. Because activated sludge is a mixture of different organisms, bacteria, and higher organisms, the stability of processes such as carbon removal, nitrification, denitrification, and dephosphatation depends on a range of interactions. These interactions occur both between and within trophic levels. Understanding of the ecology of microorganisms involved in bioprocesses is essential for effective control of startup and operation of a particular process. The aim of the study was to gain further insight into the dynamics of nitrifiers in activated sludge at various sludge ages while treating higher concentrations of ammonium. The results confirmed the importance of Nitrosococcus mobilis and Nitrobacter sp. as the dominant nitrifiers responsible for nitritation and nitratation, respectively, in the presence of unlimited ammonium. The size of the dominant bacteria colony was larger compared to the other species present and reached 25 microm. Problems with nitrification occurred in all high-ammonium loaded reactors. The dynamics of nitrifier population was monitored by oxygen uptake rate (OUR) using a test enabling the OUR measurement separately for ammonium-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). The results reveal the hypersensitivity of nitrifiers to the substrate and products of incomplete nitrification. PMID:22368958

  3. Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

  4. Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

  5. Genetic and demographic dynamics of small populations of Silene latifolia

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C M Richards; S N Emery; D E McCauley

    2003-01-01

    Small local populations of Silene alba, a short-lived herbaceous plant, were sampled in 1994 and again in 1999. Sampling included estimates of population size and genetic diversity, as measured at six polymorphic allozyme loci. When averaged across populations, there was very little change between samples (about three generations) in population size, measures of within-population genetic diversity such as number of

  6. Optimal dynamic regimes: presenting a case for predictive inference.

    PubMed

    Arjas, Elja; Saarela, Olli

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regime is a decision rule in which the choice of the treatment of an individual at any given time can depend on the known past history of that individual, including baseline covariates, earlier treatments, and their measured responses. In this paper we argue that finding an optimal regime can, at least in moderately simple cases, be accomplished by a straightforward application of nonparametric Bayesian modeling and predictive inference. As an illustration we consider an inference problem in a subset of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) data set, studying the effect of AZT initiation on future CD4-cell counts during a 12-month follow-up. PMID:20648215

  7. Nonlinearities lead to qualitative differences in population dynamics of predator-prey systems.

    PubMed

    Ameixa, Olga M C C; Messelink, Gerben J; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator - one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

  8. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    PubMed Central

    Ameixa, Olga M. C. C.; Messelink, Gerben J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic) combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L.), and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck) and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer) are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator – one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results. PMID:23638107

  9. Population structure in the native range predicts the spread of introduced marine species.

    PubMed

    Gaither, Michelle R; Bowen, Brian W; Toonen, Robert J

    2013-06-01

    Forecasting invasion success remains a fundamental challenge in invasion biology. The effort to identify universal characteristics that predict which species become invasive has faltered in part because of the diversity of taxa and systems considered. Here, we use an alternative approach focused on the spread stage of invasions. FST, a measure of alternative fixation of alleles, is a common proxy for realized dispersal among natural populations, summarizing the combined influences of life history, behaviour, habitat requirements, population size, history and ecology. We test the hypothesis that population structure in the native range (FST) is negatively correlated with the geographical extent of spread of marine species in an introduced range. An analysis of the available data (29 species, nine phyla) revealed a significant negative correlation (R(2) = 0.245-0.464) between FST and the extent of spread of non-native species. Mode FST among pairwise comparisons between populations in the native range demonstrated the highest predictive power (R(2) = 0.464, p < 0.001). There was significant improvement when marker type was considered, with mtDNA datasets providing the strongest relationship (n = 21, R(2) = 0.333-0.516). This study shows that FST can be used to make qualitative predictions concerning the geographical extent to which a non-native marine species will spread once established in a new area. PMID:23595272

  10. Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations with strong selection and weak mutation.

    PubMed

    Fudenberg, Drew; Nowak, Martin A; Taylor, Christine; Imhof, Lorens A

    2006-11-01

    We study stochastic game dynamics in finite populations. To this end we extend the classical Moran process to incorporate frequency-dependent selection and mutation. For 2 x 2 games, we give a complete analysis of the long-run behavior when mutation rates are small. For 3 x 3 coordination games, we provide a simple rule to determine which strategy will be selected in large populations. The expected motion in our model resembles the standard replicator dynamics when the population is large, but is qualitatively different when the population is small. Our analysis shows that even in large finite populations the behavior of a replicator-like system can be different from that of the standard replicator dynamics. As an application, we consider selective language dynamics. We determine which language will be spoken in finite large populations. The results have an intuitive interpretation but would not be expected from an analysis of the replicator dynamics. PMID:16987535

  11. Effects of plant genotype and insect dispersal rate on the population dynamics of a forest pest.

    PubMed

    Moran, Emily V; Bewick, Sharon; Cobbold, Christina A

    2013-12-01

    It has been shown that plant genotype can strongly affect not only individual herbivore performance, but also community composition and ecosystem function. Few studies, however, have addressed how plant genotype affects herbivore population dynamics. In this paper, we used a simulation modeling approach to ask how the genetic composition of a forest influences pest outbreak dynamics, using the example of aspen (Populus tremuloides) and forest tent caterpillars (FTC; Malacosoma disstria). Specifically, we examined how plant genotype, the relative size of genotypic patches, and the rate of insect dispersal between them, affect the frequency, amplitude, and duration of outbreaks. We found that coupling two different genotypes does not necessarily result in an averaging of insect dynamics. Instead, depending on the ratio of patch sizes, when dispersal rates are moderate, outbreaks in the two-genotype case may be more or less severe than in forests of either genotype alone. Thresholds for different dynamic behaviors were similar for all genotypic combinations. Thus, the qualitative behavior of a stand of two different genotypes can be predicted based on the response of the insect to each genotype, the relative sizes of the two patches, and the scale of insect dispersal. PMID:24597225

  12. Population Dynamics of a Salmonella Lytic Phage and Its Host: Implications of the Host Bacterial Growth Rate in Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Sílvio B.; Carvalho, Carla; Azeredo, Joana; Ferreira, Eugénio C.

    2014-01-01

    The prevalence and impact of bacteriophages in the ecology of bacterial communities coupled with their ability to control pathogens turn essential to understand and predict the dynamics between phage and bacteria populations. To achieve this knowledge it is essential to develop mathematical models able to explain and simulate the population dynamics of phage and bacteria. We have developed an unstructured mathematical model using delay-differential equations to predict the interactions between a broad-host-range Salmonella phage and its pathogenic host. The model takes into consideration the main biological parameters that rule phage-bacteria interactions likewise the adsorption rate, latent period, burst size, bacterial growth rate, and substrate uptake rate, among others. The experimental validation of the model was performed with data from phage-interaction studies in a 5 L bioreactor. The key and innovative aspect of the model was the introduction of variations in the latent period and adsorption rate values that are considered as constants in previous developed models. By modelling the latent period as a normal distribution of values and the adsorption rate as a function of the bacterial growth rate it was possible to accurately predict the behaviour of the phage-bacteria population. The model was shown to predict simulated data with a good agreement with the experimental observations and explains how a lytic phage and its host bacteria are able to coexist. PMID:25051248

  13. Montane refugia predict population genetic structure in the Large-blotched Ensatina salamander.

    PubMed

    Devitt, Thomas J; Devitt, Susan E Cameron; Hollingsworth, Bradford D; McGuire, Jimmy A; Moritz, Craig

    2013-03-01

    Understanding the biotic consequences of Pleistocene range shifts and fragmentation remains a fundamental goal in historical biogeography and evolutionary biology. Here, we combine species distribution models (SDM) from the present and two late Quaternary time periods with multilocus genetic data (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites) to evaluate the effect of climate-induced habitat shifts on population genetic structure in the Large-blotched Ensatina (Ensatina eschscholtzii klauberi), a plethodontid salamander endemic to middle and high-elevation conifer forest in the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California and northern Baja California. A composite SDM representing the range through time predicts two disjunct refugia, one in southern California encompassing the core of the species range and the other in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir of northern Baja California at the southern limit of the species range. Based on our spatial model, we would expect a pattern of high connectivity among populations within the northern refugium and, conversely, a pattern of isolation due to long-term persistence of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir population. Our genetic results are consistent with these predictions based on the hypothetical refugia in that (i) historical measures of population connectivity among stable areas are correlated with gene flow estimates; and (ii) there is strong geographical structure between separate refugia. These results provide evidence for the role of recent climatic change in shaping patterns of population persistence and connectivity within the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, an evolutionary hotspot. PMID:23379992

  14. Modeling the dynamics of natural rotifer populations: phase-parametric analysis

    E-print Network

    Faina S. Berezovskaya; Georgy P. Karev; Terry W. Snell

    2005-05-24

    A model of the dynamics of natural rotifer populations is described as a discrete nonlinear map depending on three parameters, which reflect characteristics of the population and environment. Model dynamics and their change by variation of these parameters were investigated by methods of bifurcation theory. A phase-parametric portrait of the model was constructed and domains of population persistence (stable equilibrium, periodic and a-periodic oscillations of population size) as well as population extinction were identified and investigated. The criteria for population persistence and approaches to determining critical parameter values are described. The results identify parameter values that lead to population extinction under various environmental conditions. They further illustrate that the likelihood of extinction can be substantially increased by small changes in environmental quality, which shifts populations into new dynamical regimes.

  15. Using Simple Models to Predict Virus Epizootics in Gypsy Moth Populations Author(s): Greg Dwyer and Joseph S. Elkinton

    E-print Network

    Elkinton, Joseph

    Using Simple Models to Predict Virus Epizootics in Gypsy Moth Populations Author(s): Greg Dwyer to predict virus epizootics in gypsy moth populations GREG DWYER and JOSEPH S. ELKINTON Departmentof) of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar (L.)), we estimated each of the model parameters independently, estimating

  16. Development and evaluation of a dynamic model that projects population biomarkers of methylmercury exposure from local fish consumption.

    PubMed

    Chan, Caroline; Heinbokel, John F; Myers, John A; Jacobs, Robert R

    2011-10-01

    A dynamic model was developed to project Hg concentrations in common biomarkers of exposure in response to changes in Hg concentrations in predatory fish from local waters. The model predicts biomarkers in susceptible populations for intake rates representing the mean, 90th, 95th, and 99 th percentiles of populations of interest. The biomarkers the model calculates are blood methylmercury, total hair Hg, and fetal blood methylmercury. Decision makers can use the model to determine the degree of reduction in fish tissue Hg levels necessary to protect the health of susceptible populations. Biomarker output was calibrated with literature sources. Output was then compared to additional literature sources to evaluate model function. Projected biomarkers were not different from literature sources. The model can be used as a tool to understand the impact of local fish consumption on susceptible populations. PMID:21538834

  17. Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holforty, Wendy L. (Inventor); Powell, J. David (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

  18. Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Chun Kit; Hawkins, Ed; Shaffrey, Len; Underwood, Fiona M.

    2013-08-01

    Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2-5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6-9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2-5 years and 6-9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6-9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

  19. Review of Gizzard Shad Population Dynamics at the Northwestern Edge of Its Range

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Melissa R. Wuellne R; W. Willis

    Gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum is widely distributed in North America, and South Dakota marks the northwestern edge of its native range. To date, most research regarding population dynamics of gizzard shad has been con- ducted in more southerly waters. We reviewed the dynamics and biology of giz- zard shad populations in South Dakota and compared this information with that reported

  20. The systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource-based growth model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kerry Krutilla; Rafael Reuveny

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluates the dynamic effects of adding an endogenous process for human population growth into a renewable resource-based economic growth model. Endogenizing human population growth in a static, constant technology form of the model gives rise to a dynamically complex system, with the possibility of multiple steady states of several types, and unusual comparative static responses to changes in

  1. Comparison of selective genotyping strategies for prediction of breeding values in a population undergoing selection.

    PubMed

    Boligon, A A; Long, N; Albuquerque, L G; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D; Rosa, G J M

    2012-12-01

    Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0,) and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models. PMID:23372045

  2. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the continued medical focus on drugs for BP and cholesterol, high levels of BP and cholesterol have little predictive value of mortality in this elderly population. PMID:22694922

  3. An Approach to Predict Risks to Wildlife Populations from Mercury and Other Stressors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Diane Nacci; Marguerite Pelletier; Jim Lake; Rick Bennett; John Nichols; Romona Haebler; Jason Grear; Anne Kuhn; Jane Copeland; Matthew Nicholson; Steven Walters; WAYNE R. MUNNS JR

    2005-01-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental

  4. [Reconstruction of Polytrichum juniperinum population dynamics in a mire of China].

    PubMed

    Bu, Zhaojun; Yang, Yunfei; Wang, Shengzhong; Wang, Xianwei; Dai, Dan

    2005-11-01

    By using 'history reconstruction method', this paper studied the dynamics of two Polytrichum juniperinum populations with and without sporophytes. The population with sporophyte production experienced a dynamic process from increase to stabilization, while that without sporophyte production experienced a process from increase to decrease. Before 2003, both the increase rate and the birth rate of two populations decreased continuously, with the death rate showing the tendency from decrease to a continuous increase. The advantages of 'history reconstruction method' in studying population dynamics were proved and discussed. PMID:16471372

  5. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Kulacki, Konrad J.; Cardinale, Bradley J.

    2012-01-01

    To make predictions about the possible effects of nanomaterials across environments and taxa, toxicity testing must incorporate not only a variety of organisms and endpoints, but also an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie nanoparticle toxicity. Here, we report the results of a laboratory experiment in which we examined how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across a range of freshwater algae. We exposed 10 of the most common species of North American freshwater pelagic algae (phytoplankton) to five increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 (ranging from controls to 300 mg n-TiO2 L?1). We then examined the effects of n-TiO2 on the population growth rates and biomass production of each algal species over a period of 25 days. On average, increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 had no significant effects on algal growth rates (p?=?0.376), even though there was considerable species-specific variation in responses. In contrast, exposure to n-TiO2 tended to increase maximum biomass achieved by species in culture (p?=?0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles could influence certain aspects of population growth of freshwater phytoplankton, though effects are unlikely at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:23071735

  6. Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

  7. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms. PMID:24433569

  8. Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria.

    PubMed

    McQueen, Philip G

    2010-08-01

    Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12551-010-0034-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20730124

  9. Financial Crisis Dynamic Prediction Based on Sliding Window Technology and Mahalanobis-Taguchi System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jianzhong Shi; Longsheng Cheng

    2011-01-01

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of current existing model, the financial crisis prediction dynamic model is proposed. By means of the data streams processing method, the sliding window technology is used for real-time updated samples in this paper, and then the optimal features of samples are selected by Mahalanobis-Taguchi System. The financial crisis prediction dynamic model is built

  10. Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Fernando Colchero; Rodrigo A. Medellin; James S. Clark; Raymond Lee; Gabriel G. Katul

    2009-01-01

    Summary 1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate

  11. Weed populations and crop rotations : Exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shana K. Mertens; Frank van den Bosch

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on weed populations usually invoke the diversity of environments caused by different crops that

  12. Evolutionary game dynamics in a finite asymmetric two-deme population and emergence of cooperation

    E-print Network

    Lessard, Sabin

    Evolutionary game dynamics in a finite asymmetric two-deme population and emergence of cooperation in a finite population subdivided into two demes with both unequal deme sizes and different migration rates. Assuming viability differences in the population according to a linear game within each deme as a result

  13. Understanding the Evolutionary Fate of Finite Populations: The Dynamics of Mutational Effects

    E-print Network

    Boyer, Edmond

    Understanding the Evolutionary Fate of Finite Populations: The Dynamics of Mutational Effects Olin than two decades of experimental evolution is that the fitness of populations adapting to a constant with bacteriophage, we show here that the converse is also true. In populations small enough such that drift

  14. Reinvasion dynamics of northern pocket gopher ( Thomomys talpoides) populations in removal areas

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas P. Sullivan; Druscilla S. Sullivan; Eugene J. Hogue

    2001-01-01

    This study was designed to test the hypothesis that continuous removal of northern pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) from natural habitats and tree fruit orchards would result in successful population reduction. A secondary objective was a detailed analysis of demographic responses (reinvasion dynamics) of gopher populations in control and removal sites. Pocket gopher populations were intensively live-trapped in replicate control and

  15. The social dynamics of southern resident killer whales and conservation implications for this endangered population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. M. Parsons; K. C. Balcomb III; J. K. B. Ford; J. W. Durban

    2009-01-01

    Quantitatively characterizing the social structure of a population provides important insight into the forces shaping key population processes. Moreover, long-term social dynamics provide an avenue for understanding population-level responses to changes in socioecological conditions. This is particularly true for species that show natal philopatry and highly stable hierarchically structured social units, such as the piscivorous resident killer whales of the

  16. Periodically varying externally imposed environmental effects on population dynamics M. Ballard,1,2

    E-print Network

    Kenkre, V.M.

    Diffusion with coefficient D is considered here as well as the growth of the population at rate below which the steady-state population of the bacteria vanishes as the bacteria diffuse outPeriodically varying externally imposed environmental effects on population dynamics M. Ballard,1

  17. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  18. Plant litter feedback and population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jane Molofsky; Janna Lanza; Elizabeth E. Crone

    2000-01-01

    The presence of litter has the potential to alter the population dynamics of plants. In this paper, we explore the effects\\u000a of litter on population dynamics using a simple experimental laboratory system with populations of the annual crucifer, Cardamine pensylvanica. Using a factorial experiment with four densities and three litter levels, we determined the effect of litter on biomass\\u000a and

  19. Genomic Prediction in Maize Breeding Populations with Genotyping-by-Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Crossa, José; Beyene, Yoseph; Kassa, Semagn; Pérez, Paulino; Hickey, John M.; Chen, Charles; de los Campos, Gustavo; Burgueño, Juan; Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Buckler, Ed; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Lopez Cruz, Marco A.; Babu, Raman

    2013-01-01

    Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) technologies have proven capacity for delivering large numbers of marker genotypes with potentially less ascertainment bias than standard single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Therefore, GBS has become an attractive alternative technology for genomic selection. However, the use of GBS data poses important challenges, and the accuracy of genomic prediction using GBS is currently undergoing investigation in several crops, including maize, wheat, and cassava. The main objective of this study was to evaluate various methods for incorporating GBS information and compare them with pedigree models for predicting genetic values of lines from two maize populations evaluated for different traits measured in different environments (experiments 1 and 2). Given that GBS data come with a large percentage of uncalled genotypes, we evaluated methods using nonimputed, imputed, and GBS-inferred haplotypes of different lengths (short or long). GBS and pedigree data were incorporated into statistical models using either the genomic best linear unbiased predictors (GBLUP) or the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regressions, and prediction accuracy was quantified using cross-validation methods. The following results were found: relative to pedigree or marker-only models, there were consistent gains in prediction accuracy by combining pedigree and GBS data; there was increased predictive ability when using imputed or nonimputed GBS data over inferred haplotype in experiment 1, or nonimputed GBS and information-based imputed short and long haplotypes, as compared to the other methods in experiment 2; the level of prediction accuracy achieved using GBS data in experiment 2 is comparable to those reported by previous authors who analyzed this data set using SNP arrays; and GBLUP and RKHS models with pedigree with nonimputed and imputed GBS data provided the best prediction correlations for the three traits in experiment 1, whereas for experiment 2 RKHS provided slightly better prediction than GBLUP for drought-stressed environments, and both models provided similar predictions in well-watered environments. PMID:24022750

  20. On the reproductive value and the spectrum of a population projection matrix with implications for dynamic population models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Dalkhat M. Ediev

    2010-01-01

    The eigenvalues of a population projection matrix–except for the Lotka coefficient–are uniquely determined by the reproductive values and the survival. This relation (proposed earlier, but not really well known in western literature) follows from another useful relation between fertility, reproductive values, survival, and Lotka’s coefficient. These results are applied to provide demographic interpretations to the intrinsically dynamic and metastable population

  1. Prediction of genetic contributions and generation intervals in populations with overlapping generations under selection.

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Woolliams, J A

    1999-01-01

    A method to predict long-term genetic contributions of ancestors to future generations is studied in detail for a population with overlapping generations under mass or sib index selection. An existing method provides insight into the mechanisms determining the flow of genes through selected populations, and takes account of selection by modeling the long-term genetic contribution as a linear regression on breeding value. Total genetic contributions of age classes are modeled using a modified gene flow approach and long-term predictions are obtained assuming equilibrium genetic parameters. Generation interval was defined as the time in which genetic contributions sum to unity, which is equal to the turnover time of genes. Accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions of individual animals, as well as total contributions of age classes were obtained. Due to selection, offspring of young parents had an above-average breeding value. Long-term genetic contributions of youngest age classes were therefore higher than expected from the age class distribution of parents, and generation interval was shorter than the average age of parents at birth of their offspring. Due to an increased selective advantage of offspring of young parents, generation interval decreased with increasing heritability and selection intensity. The method was compared to conventional gene flow and showed more accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions. PMID:10049935

  2. Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartstack, A. W.; Witz, J. A.; Lopez, J. D. (principal investigators)

    1981-01-01

    The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.

  3. Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Baseline Control Law: Architecture and Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    A model reference dynamic inversion control law has been developed to provide a baseline control law for research into adaptive elements and other advanced flight control law components. This controller has been implemented and tested in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the simulation results show excellent handling qualities throughout the limited flight envelope. A simple angular momentum formulation was chosen because it can be included in the stability proofs for many basic adaptive theories, such as model reference adaptive control. Many design choices and implementation details reflect the requirements placed on the system by the nonlinear flight environment and the desire to keep the system as basic as possible to simplify the addition of the adaptive elements. Those design choices are explained, along with their predicted impact on the handling qualities.

  4. Predicting sexual infidelity in a population-based sample of married individuals.

    PubMed

    Whisman, Mark A; Gordon, Kristina Coop; Chatav, Yael

    2007-06-01

    Predictors of 12-month prevalence of sexual infidelity were examined in a population-based sample of married individuals (N = 2,291). Predictor variables were organized in terms of involved-partner (e.g., personality, religiosity), marital (e.g., marital dissatisfaction, partner affair), and extradyadic (e.g., parenting) variables. Annual prevalence of infidelity was 2.3%. Controlling for marital dissatisfaction and demographic variables, infidelity was predicted by greater neuroticism and lower religiosity; wives' pregnancy also increased the risk of infidelity for husbands. In comparison, self-esteem and partners' suspected affair were predictive of infidelity when controlling for demographic variables but were not uniquely predictive of infidelity when also controlling for marital dissatisfaction. Religiosity and wives' pregnancy moderated the association between marital dissatisfaction and infidelity. PMID:17605555

  5. Predicted equations for pulmonary function in normal adolescent south Indian population.

    PubMed

    Sitalakshmi, R; Shankar, Ravi P; Padmavathi, R; Subhashini, A S; Thanasekaran, M Vijayalakshmi

    2014-01-01

    Pulmonary functions are affected by variables like age, sex, height, weight, and geographic location. Our study aims to establish predicted, equations for pulmonary functions in normal South Indian adolescent population. 400 subjects were grouped into pre & peripubertal (10-14 years) and pubertal (15 to 18 years) age categories. Anthropometric data collected, PFT assessed using portable data logging Spirometer MIR II. Mean FVC and FEV1 values were 2.80 L, 2.49 L in boys and 2.34 L, 2.12 L in girls respectively. Predicted equations for both adolescent age groups were generated by using linear regression analysis. PFT were significantly different in both age categories in boys and girls. PFT increased with increasing age and significantly correlated with the anthropometric parameters. Region specific and age specific predicted equations for PFT are generated from this study. PMID:25906614

  6. Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Esa Ranta; Per Lundberg; Veijo Kaitala; Jouni Laakso

    2000-01-01

    Characterizing population £uctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent e¡ects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that £uctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been

  7. Ecology and Population Dynamics of the Pygmy Marmoset, Cebuella pygmaea

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pekka Soini

    1982-01-01

    The pygmy marmoset population of a 3-km2 sample area of Amazonian lowland forest was censused and monitored intensively between September 1976 and January 1978. Floodplain forest constituted the habitat of Cebuella and supported a population density of 51.5 independently locomoting individuals (ILI) per square kilometer. The highest population concentration occurred along the edges of the river, where the density reached

  8. The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Bustos, Sebastián; Gomez, Charles; Hausmann, Ricardo; Hidalgo, César A.

    2012-01-01

    In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that their nestedness remains constant over time and that it is sustained by both, a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the industries that are missing according to nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks. PMID:23185326

  9. Ongoing dynamics in large-scale functional connectivity predict perception.

    PubMed

    Sadaghiani, Sepideh; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Kleinschmidt, Andreas; D'Esposito, Mark

    2015-07-01

    Most brain activity occurs in an ongoing manner not directly locked to external events or stimuli. Regional ongoing activity fluctuates in unison with some brain regions but not others, and the degree of long-range coupling is called functional connectivity, often measured with correlation. Strength and spatial distributions of functional connectivity dynamically change in an ongoing manner over seconds to minutes, even when the external environment is held constant. Direct evidence for any behavioral relevance of these continuous large-scale dynamics has been limited. Here, we investigated whether ongoing changes in baseline functional connectivity correlate with perception. In a continuous auditory detection task, participants perceived the target sound in roughly one-half of the trials. Very long (22-40 s) interstimulus intervals permitted investigation of baseline connectivity unaffected by preceding evoked responses. Using multivariate classification, we observed that functional connectivity before the target predicted whether it was heard or missed. Using graph theoretical measures, we characterized the difference in functional connectivity between states that lead to hits vs. misses. Before misses compared with hits and task-free rest, connectivity showed reduced modularity, a measure of integrity of modular network structure. This effect was strongest in the default mode and visual networks and caused by both reduced within-network connectivity and enhanced across-network connections before misses. The relation of behavior to prestimulus connectivity was dissociable from that of prestimulus activity amplitudes. In conclusion, moment to moment dynamic changes in baseline functional connectivity may shape subsequent behavioral performance. A highly modular network structure seems beneficial to perceptual efficiency. PMID:26106164

  10. q-deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, J.

    2014-07-01

    The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized.

  11. Remnant population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi in fragmented semi-natural grasslands

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Katariina Kiviniemi

    2009-01-01

    Transition matrix models were used to examine the population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi L. in semi-natural grasslands, specifically to assess what life cycle stages are important for population development and\\u000a to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity on population persistence and, hence, the ability to develop remnant\\u000a populations. The demographic studies were conducted over a 4-year period

  12. Transcontinental migratory connectivity predicts parasite prevalence in breeding populations of the European barn swallow.

    PubMed

    von Rönn, J A C; Harrod, C; Bensch, S; Wolf, J B W

    2015-03-01

    Parasites exert a major impact on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of their hosts and the associated biotic environment. Migration constitutes an effective means for long-distance invasions of vector-borne parasites and promotes their rapid spread. Yet, ecological and spatial information on population-specific host-parasite connectivity is essentially lacking. Here, we address this question in a system consisting of a transcontinental migrant species, the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) which serves as a vector for avian endoparasites in the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. Using feather stable isotope ratios as geographically informative markers, we first assessed migratory connectivity in the host: Northern European breeding populations predominantly overwintered in dry, savannah-like habitats in Southern Africa, whereas Southern European populations were associated with wetland habitats in Western Central Africa. Wintering areas of swallows breeding in Central Europe indicated a migratory divide with both migratory programmes occurring within the same breeding population. Subsequent genetic screens of parasites in the breeding populations revealed a link between the host's migratory programme and its parasitic repertoire: controlling for effects of local breeding location, prevalence of Africa-transmitted Plasmodium lineages was significantly higher in individuals overwintering in the moist habitats of Western Central Africa, even among sympatrically breeding individuals with different overwintering locations. For the rarer Haemoproteus parasites, prevalence was best explained by breeding location alone, whereas no clear pattern emerged for the least abundant parasite Leucocytozoon. These results have implications for our understanding of spatio-temporal host-parasite dynamics in migratory species and the spread of avian borne diseases. PMID:25611126

  13. PREDICTION OF CUTTINGS BED HEIGHT WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS IN DRILLING HORIZONTAL AND HIGHLY DEVIATED WELLS

    E-print Network

    Ullmer, Brygg

    PREDICTION OF CUTTINGS BED HEIGHT WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS IN DRILLING HORIZONTAL Computational Fluid Dynamics methods. Movement, concentration and accumulation of drilled cuttings in non parameters such as wellbore geometry, pump rate, drilling fluid rheology and density, and maximum drilling

  14. Predicting Program Execution Times by Analyzing Static and Dynamic Program Paths

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chang Yun Park

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a method to predict guaranteed and tight deterministic execution time bounds of a sequential program. The basic prediction technique is a static analysis based on simple timing schema for source-level language constructs, which gives accurate predictions in many cases. Using powerful user-provided information, dynamic path analysis refines looser predictions by eliminating infeasible paths and decomposing the possible

  15. Can CA-125 Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in Epithelial Ovarian Cancers in Turkish Population?

    PubMed Central

    Köro?lu, Nadiye; Y?ld?r?m, Gökhan; Ülker, Volkan; Gülk?l?k, Ahmet; Dansuk, Ramazan

    2014-01-01

    Objective. The role of single preoperative serum CA-125 levels in predicting pelvic or paraaortic lymph node metastasis in patients operated for epithelial ovarian cancer has been investigated. Methods. 176 patients diagnosed with epithelial ovarian carcinoma after staging laparotomy between January 2002 and May 2010 were evaluated retrospectively. Results. The mean, geometric mean, and median of preoperative serum CA-125 levels were 632,6, 200,29, and 191,5?U/mL, respectively. The cut-off value predicting lymph node metastases in the ROC curve was 71,92?U/mL, which is significant in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.005). The preoperative log CA-125 levels were also statistically significant in predicting lymph node metastasis in logistic regression analysis (P = 0.008). Conclusions. The tumor marker CA-125, which increases with grade independent of the effect of stage in EOC, is predictive of lymph node metastasis with a high rate of false positivity in Turkish population. The high false positive rate may obscure the predictive value of CA-125. PMID:24795494

  16. Nonlinear dynamics in EEG from epileptic patients: Is it possible to predict seizures?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterhalder, M.; Schelter, B.; Maiwald, T.; Aschenbrenner-Scheibe, R.; Brandt, A.; Schulze-Bonhage, A.; Timmer, J.

    2004-12-01

    Several concepts and analysis techniques originating from Nonlinear Dynamics have been applied to electroencephalography recordings of epilepsy patients to predict seizures. An early prediction of an upcoming seizure would dramatically increase the therapeutic possibilities for this common neurological disease. We suggest standards to assess seizure prediction performance of time series analysis techniques. We present assessment of three methods originating from Nonlinear Dynamics with respect to their ability in predicting epileptic seizures.

  17. Accurate Prediction of Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using Stem Cell-Derived Populations

    PubMed Central

    Szkolnicka, Dagmara; Farnworth, Sarah L.; Lucendo-Villarin, Baltasar; Storck, Christopher; Zhou, Wenli; Iredale, John P.; Flint, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Despite major progress in the knowledge and management of human liver injury, there are millions of people suffering from chronic liver disease. Currently, the only cure for end-stage liver disease is orthotopic liver transplantation; however, this approach is severely limited by organ donation. Alternative approaches to restoring liver function have therefore been pursued, including the use of somatic and stem cell populations. Although such approaches are essential in developing scalable treatments, there is also an imperative to develop predictive human systems that more effectively study and/or prevent the onset of liver disease and decompensated organ function. We used a renewable human stem cell resource, from defined genetic backgrounds, and drove them through developmental intermediates to yield highly active, drug-inducible, and predictive human hepatocyte populations. Most importantly, stem cell-derived hepatocytes displayed equivalence to primary adult hepatocytes, following incubation with known hepatotoxins. In summary, we have developed a serum-free, scalable, and shippable cell-based model that faithfully predicts the potential for human liver injury. Such a resource has direct application in human modeling and, in the future, could play an important role in developing renewable cell-based therapies. PMID:24375539

  18. A general procedure for predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing mass selection.

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Van Arendonk, J A; Woolliams, J A

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of rates of inbreeding (DeltaF), based on the concept of long-term genetic contributions assuming the infinitesimal model, are developed for populations with discrete or overlapping generations undergoing mass selection. Phenotypes of individuals are assumed to be recorded prior to reproductive age and to remain constant over time. The prediction method accounts for inheritance of selective advantage both within and between age classes and for changing selection intensities with age. Terms corresponding to previous methods that assume constant selection intensity with age are identified. Predictions are accurate (relative errors < or =8%), except for cases with extreme selection intensities in females in combination with high heritability. With overlapping generations DeltaF reaches a maximum when parents are equally distributed over age classes, which is mainly due to selection of the same individuals in consecutive years. DeltaF/year decreases much more slowly compared to DeltaF/generation as the number of younger individuals increases, whereas the decrease is more similar as the number of older individuals increases. The minimum DeltaF (per year or per generation) is obtained when most parents were in the later age classes, which is mainly due to an increased number of parents per generation. With overlapping generations, the relationship between heritability and DeltaF is dependent on the age structure of the population. PMID:10747075

  19. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

  20. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic, environmental and population fluctuations

    PubMed Central

    Ezard, Thomas H.G.; Côté, Steeve D.; Pelletier, Fanie

    2009-01-01

    Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments. PMID:19414464

  1. Predicting the effect of angular momentum on the dissociation dynamics of highly rotationally excited radical intermediates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brynteson, Matthew D.; Butler, Laurie J.

    2015-02-01

    We present a model which accurately predicts the net speed distributions of products resulting from the unimolecular decomposition of rotationally excited radicals. The radicals are produced photolytically from a halogenated precursor under collision-free conditions so they are not in a thermal distribution of rotational states. The accuracy relies on the radical dissociating with negligible energetic barrier beyond the endoergicity. We test the model predictions using previous velocity map imaging and crossed laser-molecular beam scattering experiments that photolytically generated rotationally excited CD2CD2OH and C3H6OH radicals from brominated precursors; some of those radicals then undergo further dissociation to CD2CD2 + OH and C3H6 + OH, respectively. We model the rotational trajectories of these radicals, with high vibrational and rotational energy, first near their equilibrium geometry, and then by projecting each point during the rotation to the transition state (continuing the rotational dynamics at that geometry). This allows us to accurately predict the recoil velocity imparted in the subsequent dissociation of the radical by calculating the tangential velocities of the CD2CD2/C3H6 and OH fragments at the transition state. The model also gives a prediction for the distribution of angles between the dissociation fragments' velocity vectors and the initial radical's velocity vector. These results are used to generate fits to the previously measured time-of-flight distributions of the dissociation fragments; the fits are excellent. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the precession of the angular velocity vector for a rotating radical. We also show that if the initial angular momentum of the rotating radical lies nearly parallel to a principal axis, the very narrow range of tangential velocities predicted by this model must be convoluted with a J = 0 recoil velocity distribution to achieve a good result. The model relies on measuring the kinetic energy release when the halogenated precursor is photodissociated via a repulsive excited state but does not include any adjustable parameters. Even when different conformers of the photolytic precursor are populated, weighting the prediction by a thermal conformer population gives an accurate prediction for the relative velocity vectors of the fragments from the highly rotationally excited radical intermediates.

  2. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  3. Design and Implementation of Aculops Lycopersici Population Dynamic Model Prototype Based on Cellular Automata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shuai; Wang, Dongsheng; Li, Linyi; Yuan, Yongda

    Faced upon the research status of Aculops lycopersici, the importance of population dynamic has been put forward. The feasibility and superiority of cellular automata applied in the simulation of Aculops lycopersici has been discussed. This paper has put forward an Aculops lycopersici population dynamic model prototype based on cellular automata, the result showed that this model can be used to simulate the dynamic population of Aculops lycopersici. When it is applied, the improvement of parameter should be considered, at the same time, this model could provide reference for the simulation of other species of insect.

  4. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  5. Dynamics of Encoding in a Population of Neurons

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Bruce W.

    1972-01-01

    A simple encoder model, which is a reasonable idealization from known electrophysiological properties, yields a population in which the variation of the firing rate with time is a perfect replica of the shape of the input stimulus. A population of noise-free encoders which depart even slightly from the simple model yield a very much degraded copy of the input stimulus. The presence of noise improves the performance of such a population. The firing rate of a population of neurons is related to the firing rate of a single member in a subtle way. PMID:5025748

  6. Bottom-up determination of soil collembola diversity and population dynamics in response to interactive climatic factors.

    PubMed

    A'Bear, A Donald; Boddy, Lynne; Jones, T Hefin

    2013-11-01

    Soil invertebrate contributions to decomposition are climate dependent. Understanding the influence of abiotic factors on soil invertebrate population dynamics will strengthen predictions regarding ecosystem functioning under climate change. As well as being important secondary decomposers, mycophagous collembola exert a strong influence on the growth and activity of primary decomposers, particularly fungi. Species-specific grazing preferences for different fungi enable fungal community composition to influence the direct impacts of climate change on collembola populations. We investigate the interactive roles of altered abiotic conditions (warming, wetting and drying) and the identity of the dominant decomposer fungus in determining collembola community dynamics in woodland soil mesocosms. The bottom-up influence of the dominant component of the fungal resource base was an important mediator of the direct climatic impacts on collembola populations. The positive influences of warming and wetting, and the negative influence of drying, on collembola abundance and diversity were much less pronounced in fungal-inoculation treatments, in which populations were reduced compared with uninoculated mesocosms. We conclude that the thick, sclerotised cords of the competitively dominant decomposer fungi reduced the biomass of smaller, more palatable soil fungi, limiting the size of collembola populations and their ability to respond to altered abiotic conditions. PMID:23609802

  7. The frequency of multiple paternity predicts variation in testes size among island populations of house mice.

    PubMed

    Firman, R C; Simmons, L W

    2008-11-01

    Polyandry generates selection on males through sperm competition, which has broad implications for the evolution of ejaculates and male reproductive anatomy. Comparative analyses across species and competitive mating trials within species have suggested that sperm competition can influence the evolution of testes size, sperm production and sperm form and function. Surprisingly, the intraspecific approach of comparing among population variation for investigating the selective potential of sperm competition has rarely been explored. We sampled seven island populations of house mice and determined the frequency of multiple paternity within each population. Applying the frequency of multiple paternity as an index of the risk of sperm competition, we looked for selective responses in male reproductive traits. We found that the risk of sperm competition predicted testes size across the seven island populations of house mice. However, variation in sperm traits was not explained by sperm competition risk. We discuss these findings in relation to sperm competition theory, and other intrinsic and extrinsic factors that might influence ejaculate quality. PMID:18811664

  8. Anomalously slow attrition times for asymmetric populations with internal group dynamics

    E-print Network

    Zhenyuan Zhao; Juan Camilo Bohorquez; Alex Dixon; Neil F. Johnson

    2009-10-08

    The many-body dynamics exhibited by living objects include group formation within a population, and the non-equilibrium process of attrition between two opposing populations due to competition or conflict. We show analytically and numerically that the combination of these two dynamical processes generates an attrition duration T whose nonlinear dependence on population asymmetry x is in stark contrast to standard mass-action theories. A minority population experiences a longer survival time than two equally balanced populations, irrespective of whether the majority population adopts such internal grouping or not. Adding a third population with pre-defined group sizes allows T(x) to be tailored. Our findings compare favorably to real-world observations.

  9. An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations.

    PubMed

    Parlato, Elizabeth H; Armstrong, Doug P

    2012-02-01

    We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (?) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had ? distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, ? was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, ? was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of ? for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously. PMID:22098341

  10. Motional timescale predictions by molecular dynamics simulations: Case study using proline and hydroxyproline sidechain dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Aliev, Abil E; Kulke, Martin; Khaneja, Harmeet S; Chudasama, Vijay; Sheppard, Tom D; Lanigan, Rachel M

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new approach for force field optimizations which aims at reproducing dynamics characteristics using biomolecular MD simulations, in addition to improved prediction of motionally averaged structural properties available from experiment. As the source of experimental data for dynamics fittings, we use 13C NMR spin-lattice relaxation times T1 of backbone and sidechain carbons, which allow to determine correlation times of both overall molecular and intramolecular motions. For structural fittings, we use motionally averaged experimental values of NMR J couplings. The proline residue and its derivative 4-hydroxyproline with relatively simple cyclic structure and sidechain dynamics were chosen for the assessment of the new approach in this work. Initially, grid search and simplexed MD simulations identified large number of parameter sets which fit equally well experimental J couplings. Using the Arrhenius-type relationship between the force constant and the correlation time, the available MD data for a series of parameter sets were analyzed to predict the value of the force constant that best reproduces experimental timescale of the sidechain dynamics. Verification of the new force-field (termed as AMBER99SB-ILDNP) against NMR J couplings and correlation times showed consistent and significant improvements compared to the original force field in reproducing both structural and dynamics properties. The results suggest that matching experimental timescales of motions together with motionally averaged characteristics is the valid approach for force field parameter optimization. Such a comprehensive approach is not restricted to cyclic residues and can be extended to other amino acid residues, as well as to the backbone. Proteins 2014; 82:195–215. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:23818175

  11. GEOGRAPHICGRADIENTS IN DIET AFFECT POPULATION DYNAMICS OF CANADA LYNX

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James D. Roth; John D. Marshall; Dennis L. Murray; David M. Nickerson; Todd D. Steury

    2007-01-01

    Geographical gradients in the stability of cyclic populations of herbivores and their predators may relate to the degree of specialization of predators. However, such changes are usually associated with transition from specialist to generalist predator species, rather than from geographical variation in dietary breadth of specialist predators. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) populations undergo cyclic fluctuations

  12. Optimal Control Strategies for Disinfection of Bacterial Populations with Persister and Susceptible Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Jason; Darres, Kyle; Petty, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    It is increasingly clear that bacteria manage to evade killing by antibiotics and antimicrobials in a variety of ways, including mutation, phenotypic variations, and formation of biofilms. With recent advances in understanding the dynamics of the tolerance mechanisms, there have been subsequent advances in understanding how to manipulate the bacterial environments to eradicate the bacteria. This study focuses on using mathematical techniques to find the optimal disinfection strategy to eliminate the bacteria while managing the load of antibiotic that is applied. In this model, the bacterial population is separated into those that are tolerant to the antibiotic and those that are susceptible to disinfection. There are transitions between the two populations whose rates depend on the chemical environment. Our results extend previous mathematical studies to include more realistic methods of applying the disinfectant. The goal is to provide experimentally testable predictions that have been lacking in previous mathematical studies. In particular, we provide the optimal disinfection protocol under a variety of assumptions within the model that can be used to validate or invalidate our simplifying assumptions and the experimental hypotheses that we used to develop the model. We find that constant dosing is not the optimal method for disinfection. Rather, cycling between application and withdrawal of the antibiotic yields the fastest killing of the bacteria. PMID:22751538

  13. vRNA structured population model for Hepatitis C Virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Woot de Trixhe, X; Krzyzanski, W; De Ridder, F; Vermeulen, A

    2015-08-01

    Improvements in the understanding of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) life-cycle have led to the identification of targets and the development of drugs affecting the intracellular reproduction of the virus. These advancements have presented new modeling challenges as the classic models have focused on describing the macroscopic viral kinetics only. Our primary objective is to apply the existing theory of Physiologically Structured Population (PSP) modeling to describe dynamics of viral RNA (vRNA) in infected hepatocytes of patients receiving treatment with Direct-acting Antiviral Agents (DAA). Using vRNA as a physiological structure this work expands on previous structured population models allowing exploration of micro- and macroscopic implications of such treatments. The PSP model provides a description of vRNA distribution in the infected cells at steady state and its time evolution following treatment. The long term behavior of the model predicts viral load time courses in plasma and permits to quantify conditions for the virus eradication. Finally, we demonstrate that PSP models can account for additional structures, which are essential for the viral replication process with potentially far reaching implications in our understanding of HCV infections and treatment options. PMID:25912382

  14. Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Jean E; Coyle, Joseph; Bogue, Conor; Spence, Liam D; Last, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Age estimation in living subjects is primarily achieved through assessment of a hand-wrist radiograph and comparison with a standard reference atlas. Recently, maturation of other regions of the skeleton has also been assessed in an attempt to refine the age estimates. The current study presents a method to predict bone age directly from the knee in a modern Irish sample. Ten maturity indicators (A-J) at the knee were examined from radiographs of 221 subjects (137 males; 84 females). Each indicator was assigned a maturity score. Scores for indicators A-G, H-J and A-J, respectively, were totalled to provide a cumulative maturity score for change in morphology of the epiphyses (AG), epiphyseal union (HJ) and the combination of both (AJ). Linear regression equations to predict age from the maturity scores (AG, HJ, AJ) were constructed for males and females. For males, equation-AJ demonstrated the greatest predictive capability (R(2)=0.775) while for females equation-HJ had the strongest capacity for prediction (R(2)=0.815). When equation-AJ for males and equation-HJ for females were applied to the current sample, the predicted age of 90% of subjects was within ±1.5 years of actual age for male subjects and within +2.0 to -1.9 years of actual age for female subjects. The regression formulae and associated charts represent the most contemporary method of age prediction currently available for an Irish population, and provide a further technique which can contribute to a multifactorial approach to age estimation in non-adults. PMID:24262807

  15. Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

    PubMed

    Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

    2013-10-01

    The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction. PMID:23864369

  16. Hearing, mobility, and pain predict mortality: a longitudinal population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Feeny, David; Huguet, Nathalie; McFarland, Bentson H.; Kaplan, Mark S.; Orpana, Heather; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Objective Measures of health-related quality of life (HRQL), including the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) are predictive of mortality. HUI3 includes eight attributes, vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, cognition, emotion, and pain and discomfort, with five or six levels per attribute that vary from no to severe disability. This study examined associations between individual HUI3 attributes and mortality. Study Design and Setting Baseline data and 12 years of follow-up data from a closed longitudinal cohort study, the 1994/95 Canadian National Population Health Survey, consisting of 12,375 women and men aged 18 and older. A priori hypotheses were that ambulation, cognition, emotion, and pain would predict mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied controlling for standard determinants of health and risk factors. Results Single-attribute utility scores for ambulation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.10; 0.04–0.22), hearing (HR = 0.18; 0.06–0.57), and pain (HR = 0.53; 0.29–0.96) were statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality; ambulation and hearing were predictive for the 60+ cohort. Conclusion Few studies have identified hearing or pain as risk factors for mortality. This study is innovative because it identifies specific components of HRQL that predict mortality. Further research is needed to understand better the mechanisms through which deficits in hearing and pain affect mortality risks. PMID:22521576

  17. Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

    PubMed

    Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

    2013-12-01

    Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. PMID:24033503

  18. Predicting Thymine Dimerization Yields from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

    PubMed Central

    Law, Yu Kay; Azadi, Javad; Crespo-Hernández, Carlos E.; Olmon, Eric; Kohler, Bern

    2008-01-01

    It was recently shown that thymine dimers in the all-thymine oligonucleotide (dT)18 are fully formed in <1 ps after ultraviolet excitation. The speed and low quantum yield of this reaction suggest that only a small fraction of the conformers of this structurally disordered oligonucleotide are in a position to react at the instant of photon absorption. In this work, we explore the hypothesis that conventional molecular dynamics simulations can be used to predict the yield of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers in DNA. Conformations obtained from simulations of thymidylyl-(3?-5?)-thymidine in various cosolvents were classified as dimerizable or nondimerizable depending on the distance between the C5-C6 double bonds of the adjacent thymine bases and the torsion angle between them. The quantum yield of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer formation was calculated as the number of dimerizable conformations divided by the total number of conformations. The experimental quantum yields measured in the different solvents were satisfactorily reproduced using physically reasonable values for the two parameters. The mean dimerizable structure computed by averaging all of the dimerizable cis-syn conformations is structurally similar to the actual cis-syn dimer. Compared to the canonical B-form TT step, the most important structural property of a dimerizable conformation is its reduced helical twist angle of 22°. PMID:18192364

  19. Comparative dynamics of small mammal populations in treefall gaps and surrounding understorey within Amazonian rainforest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beck, H.; Gaines, M.S.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    Variation in food resource availability can have profound effects on habitat selection and dynamics of populations. Previous studies reported higher food resource availability and fruit removal in treefall gaps than in the understorey. Therefore, gaps have been considered 'keystone habitat' for Neotropical frugivore birds. Here we test if this prediction would also hold for terrestrial small mammals. In the Amazon, we quantified food resource availability in eleven treefall gaps and paired understorey habitats and used feeding experiments to test if two common terrestrial rodents (Oryzomys megacephalus and Proechimys spp.) would perceive differences between habitats. We live-trapped small mammals in eleven gaps and understorey sites for two years, and compared abundance, fitness components (survival and per capita recruitment) and dispersal of these two rodent species across gaps and understorey and seasons (rainy and dry). Our data indicated no differences in resource availability and consumption rate between habitats. Treefall gaps may represent a sink habitat for Oryzomys where individuals had lower fitness, apparently because of habitat-specific ant predation on early life stages, than in the understorey, the source habitat. Conversely, gaps may be source habitat for Proechimys where individuals had higher fitness, than in the understorey, the sink habitat. Our results suggest the presence of source-sink dynamics in a tropical gap-understorey landscape, where two rodent species perceive habitats differently. This may be a mechanism for their coexistence in a heterogeneous and species-diverse system.

  20. Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Episomes among Ecologically Cohesive Bacterial Populations

    E-print Network

    Xue, Hong

    Although plasmids and other episomes are recognized as key players in horizontal gene transfer among microbes, their diversity and dynamics among ecologically structured host populations in the wild remain poorly understood. ...

  1. A Quantative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population Dynamics

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population DynamicsAn adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a qualitative description linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) with measureable key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). ...

  2. A model simulation of white-winged dove population dynamics in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province 

    E-print Network

    Martinez, Cristina Ann

    2002-01-01

    I present the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a simulation model representing two components of population dynamics-natality and mortality-for the white-winged dove (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO). I also discuss the role...

  3. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (?) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 ?g L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on ? was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants. PMID:22851126

  4. Dynamic prediction of soil salinization in an irrigation district based on the support vector machine

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Xiaoyan Guan; Shaoli Wang; Zhanyi Gao; Ye Lv

    Soil salinization has random characteristics because of the influences of natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, a study on the dynamic prediction model of soil salinity is important for irrigation water management in salinization irrigation districts. In the present paper, the theory of supporting vector machine was introduced in the dynamic prediction of soil electrical conductivity (EC) values. Based on groundwater

  5. Data modeling enabled dynamical analysis for blogger state-of-mind modeling and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaenisch, Holger M.; Coombs, Michael J.; Handley, James W.; Albritton, Nathaniel G.; Edwards, Matthew E.

    2008-04-01

    We present a novel mathematical framework for Data Mining blogger text entries and converting latent conceptual information into analytical predictive equations. These differential equations are conceptual models of the blogger's topic and state-of-mind transition dynamics. The mathematical framework is explored for its value in characterization of topic content and topic tracking as well as identification and prediction of topic dynamic changes.

  6. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. T. Gollany; R. W. Rickman; S. L. Albrecht; Y. Liang; Shujiang Kang; S. Machado

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the

  7. DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF ACULOPS LYCOPERSICI POPULATION DYNAMIC MODEL PROTOTYPE BASED ON CELLULAR AUTOMATA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shuai Zhang; Dongsheng Wang; Linyi Li; Yongda Yuan

    2009-01-01

    \\u000a Faced upon the research status of Aculops lycopersici, the importance of population dynamic has been put forward. The feasibility\\u000a and superiority of cellular automata applied in the simulation of Aculops lycopersici has been discussed. This paper has put\\u000a forward an Aculops lycopersici population dynamic model prototype based on cellular automata, the result showed that this\\u000a model can be used to

  8. Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

    E-print Network

    Weckerly, Floyd "Butch" - Department of Biology, Texas State University

    population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island archipelago; Cervidae; hunting; insular; irruption; population dynamics; range expansion; Rangifer tarandusIrruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney

  9. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  10. Modeling the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmids in Spatial Populations

    E-print Network

    , horizontal gene transfer, antibiotic resistance, digital evolution Permission to make digital or hard copies populations. First, we examine how the abundance of a plasmid that provides antibiotic resistance diers in en

  11. Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

    E-print Network

    Lopez-Carr, David

    ­environment relations formulated by British parson Thomas Malthus (1873) in which he predicted that as population growth (Dasgupta, 1995). A century after Malthus, Ester Boserup offered an alternative to this population hypotheses put forth by both Malthus (e.g. Ehrhardt-Martinez 1998; Inman 1992; Rudel 1989; Southgate 1994

  12. Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. L. Rustigian; M. V. Santelmann; N. H. Schumaker

    2003-01-01

    An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities,

  13. Sex, population dynamics and resting egg production in rotifers

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Terry W. Snell

    1987-01-01

    The interaction between sexual reproduction and population growth in the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis was examined using exponential and logistic growth models. A computer simulation was used to explore the effects of the frequency\\u000a of sex and the proportion of a female's daughters reproducing sexually on population growth rate and resting egg production.\\u000a Within the parameters of the simulation, the proportion

  14. Competition models with niche for squirrel population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Rossi, Alessandra; Ferrua, Ilaria; Perracchione, Emma; Ruatta, Giulia; Venturino, Ezio

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we investigate squirrel competition models. More precisely, at first we consider a competition model between red native and grey exotic squirrels, then a model with competition among red native, red indigenous and grey exotic squirrels. We assume that a part of red squirrels can hide in a niche. By adding this hypothesis, we analize if, independently from initial conditions, the grey exotic squirrel population could be prevented from invading the ecosystem and displacing the native populations.

  15. Geographical gradients in diet affect population dynamics of Canada lynx.

    PubMed

    Roth, James D; Marshall, John D; Murray, Dennis L; Nickerson, David M; Steury, Todd D

    2007-11-01

    Geographical gradients in the stability of cyclic populations of herbivores and their predators may relate to the degree of specialization of predators. However, such changes are usually associated with transition from specialist to generalist predator species, rather than from geographical variation in dietary breadth of specialist predators. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) populations undergo cyclic fluctuations in northern parts of their range, but cycles are either greatly attenuated or lost altogether in the southern boreal forest where prey diversity is higher. We tested the influence of prey specialization on population cycles by measuring the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in lynx and their prey, estimating the contribution of hares to lynx diet across their range, and correlating this degree of specialization to the strength of their population cycles. Hares dominated the lynx diet across their range, but specialization on hares decreased in southern and western populations. The degree of specialization correlated with cyclic signal strength indicated by spectral analysis of lynx harvest data, but overall variability of lynx harvest (the standard deviation of natural-log-transformed harvest numbers) did not change significantly with dietary specialization. Thus, as alternative prey became more important in the lynx diet, the fluctuations became decoupled from a regular cycle but did not become less variable. Our results support the hypothesis that alternative prey decrease population cycle regularity but emphasize that such changes may be driven by dietary shifts among dominant specialist predators rather than exclusively through changes in the predator community. PMID:18051641

  16. Ecology and population dynamics of the pygmy marmoset, Cebuella pygmaea.

    PubMed

    Soini, P

    1982-01-01

    The pygmy marmoset population of a 3-km2 sample area of Amazonian lowland forest was censused and monitored intensively between September 1976 and January 1978. Floodplain forest constituted the habitat of Cebuella and supported a population density of 51.5 independently locomoting individuals (ILI) per square kilometer. The highest population concentration occurred along the edges of the river, where the density reached 274 ILI per km2. Adults comprised about one half of the total population. About 83% of the population lived in stable troops; the remaining 17% was made up by incipiently associated pairs and solitary individuals. Stable troops were made up of 1 breeding female, her mate, and her maturing offspring of up to four successive litters. Moreover, some troops contained 1-2 additional adult members. Troop size ranged from 2 to 9 ILI, with a modal size of 6 ILI. The births showed two annual peaks and the interbirth intervals ranged between 5 and 7 months. Infant survival was about 67%. Exudates (sap and gums) of trees and vines, insects and arachnids constituted the principal food resources of the population. The troops occupied exclusive home ranges of 0.2-0.4 ha. Several troops changed home range sites temporarily or permanently in the course of the study. PMID:6815036

  17. Predictive factors for difficult mask ventilation in the obese surgical population

    PubMed Central

    Cattano, Davide; Katsiampoura, Anastasia; Corso, Ruggero M.; Killoran, Peter V.; Cai, Chunyan; Hagberg, Carin A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Difficult Mask Ventilation (DMV), is a situation in which it is impossible for an unassisted anesthesiologist to maintain oxygen saturation >90% using 100% oxygen and positive pressure ventilation to prevent or reverse signs of inadequate ventilation during mask ventilation.  The incidence varies from 0.08 – 15%. Patient-related anatomical features are by far the most significant cause.  We analyzed data from an obese surgical population (BMI> 30 kg/m 2) to identify specific risk and predictive factors for DMV. Methods Five hundred and fifty seven obese patients were identified from a database of 1399 cases associated with preoperative airway examinations where mask ventilation was attempted. Assessment of mask ventilation in this group was stratified by a severity score (0-3), and a step-wise selection method was used to identify independent predictors.  The area under the curve of the receiver-operating-characteristic was then used to evaluate the model’s predictive value. Adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were also calculated. Results DMV was observed in 80/557 (14%) patients. Three independent predictive factors for DMV in obese patients were identified: age 49 years, short neck, and neck circumference  43 cm. In the current study th sensitivity for one factor is 0.90 with a specificity 0.35. However, the specificity increased to 0.80 with inclusion of more than one factor. Conclusion According to the current investigation, the three predictive factors are strongly associated with DMV in obese patients. Each independent risk factor alone provides a good screening for DMV and two factors substantially improve specificity. Based on our analysis, we speculate that the absence of at least 2 of the factors we identified might have a significant negative predictive value and can reasonably exclude DMV, with a negative likelihood ratio 0.81. PMID:25485099

  18. Prediction of lung cancer risk in a Chinese population using a multifactorial genetic model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Lung cancer is a complex polygenic disease. Although recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple susceptibility loci for lung cancer, most of these variants have not been validated in a Chinese population. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score combining multiple. Methods Five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in previous GWA or large cohort studies were genotyped in 5068 Chinese case–control subjects. The genetic risk score (GRS) based on these SNPs was estimated by two approaches: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS) and a weighted (wGRS) method. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in combination with the bootstrap resampling method was used to assess the predictive performance of the genetic risk score for lung cancer. Results Four independent SNPs (rs2736100, rs402710, rs4488809 and rs4083914), were found to be associated with a risk of lung cancer. The wGRS based on these four SNPs was a better predictor than cGRS. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that these four SNPs accounted for only 4.02% of genetic variance in lung cancer. Smoking history contributed significantly to lung cancer (P < 0.001) risk [AUC = 0.619 (0.603-0.634)], and incorporated with wGRS gave an AUC value of 0.639 (0.621-0.652) after adjustment for over-fitting. This model shows promise for assessing lung cancer risk in a Chinese population. Conclusion Our results indicate that although genetic variants related to lung cancer only added moderate discriminatory accuracy, it still improved the predictive ability of the assessment model in Chinese population. PMID:23228068

  19. Population dynamics of fossorial water vole ( Arvicola terrestris scherman): a land use and landscape perspective

    Microsoft Academic Search

    P. Giraudoux; P. Delattre; M. Habert; J. P. Quéré; S. Deblay; R. Defaut; R. Duhamel; M. F. Moissenet; D. Salvi; D. Truchetet

    1997-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of land use, and landscape composition and structure on the population dynamics of fossorial water vole (Arvicola terrestris scherman Shaw). Water vole populations were monitored from 1989 to 1994 in the Doubs department, France, by using index methods. Land use patterns were studied based on agriculture and forestry data from the French Ministry of Agriculture

  20. Population dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a decision model for sugar beet planting

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A series of investigations were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initi...

  1. ANAEROBIC CODIGESTION OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE AND BIOSOLIDS UNDER VARIOUS MIXINGCONDITIONS } II: MICROBIAL POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    KATHERINE D. McMAHON; PETER G. STROOT; RODERICK I. MACKIE; LUTGARDE RASKIN

    2001-01-01

    Microbial population dynamics were evaluated in anaerobic codigesters treating municipal solid waste and sewage sludge. Ribosomal RNA based oligonucleotide probes were used to characterize changes in population abundance of syntrophic volatile fatty acid degrading bacteria and methanogens. Changes in community structure were linked to traditional performance parameters during the recovery of previously unstable codigesters induced by a reduction in mixing

  2. Extinction Rate Fragility in Population Dynamics M. Khasin and M. I. Dykman

    E-print Network

    Dykman, Mark

    Extinction Rate Fragility in Population Dynamics M. Khasin and M. I. Dykman Department of Physics manuscript received 28 April 2009; published 4 August 2009) Population extinction is of central interest-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation

  3. Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated landscapes

    E-print Network

    and population density. We examined the relative influence of area, structural isolation, habitat quality, local be able to use, or move through, many habitat types of differing quality, area and isolation may be less610 Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated

  4. Dynamics of two Montana grasshopper populations: relationships among weather, food abundance and intraspecific competition

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Gary E. Belovsky; Jennifer B. Slade

    1995-01-01

    The population dynamics of two grasshoppers (Melanoplus femurrubrum and M. sanguinipes) were studied using experimental microcosms over 8 years at a Palouse prairie site in Montana. Grasshopper density, survival and reproduction in the experimental populations responded in a density-dependent fashion to natural and experimental changes in food availability for all grasshopper developmental stages, both within and between all years. We

  5. Culling and the dynamics of the Kruger National Park African elephant population

    E-print Network

    Pretoria, University of

    Culling and the dynamics of the Kruger National Park African elephant population INTRODUCTION For 30 years, managers have promoted culling as a man- agement tool for African elephant populations of elephant culling as a means of curtailing the anticipated destruction of the vegetation in the Kruger

  6. Impact of conservation interventions on the dynamics and persistence of a persecuted leopard ( Panthera pardus) population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Guy A. Balme; Rob Slotow; Luke T. B. Hunter

    2009-01-01

    There is an extraordinary assortment of technical approaches to conserving carnivore populations, but the effectiveness of conservation activities is rarely evaluated. Accordingly, we initiated a study to assess the impact of several conservation interventions on the dynamics and persistence of a leopard (Panthera pardus) population in Phinda Private Game Reserve, South Africa. These included revisions of the statutory systems that

  7. Population Dynamics Models in Plant--Insect Herbivore--Pesticide Interactions

    E-print Network

    Population Dynamics Models in Plant--Insect Herbivore--Pesticide Interactions B.M. Adams # , H of natural enemies, vegetation diversity, and traditional pesticides have each been considered independently control on insect herbivore populations. Furthermore, risks associated with traditional pesticides often

  8. Dynamics of two feline retroviruses (FIV and FeLV) within one population of cats

    E-print Network

    Courchamp, Franck

    Dynamics of two feline retroviruses (FIV and FeLV) within one population of cats FRANCK COURCHAMP1 are feline retroviruses, namely Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) and Feline Leukaemia Virus (Fe population. The host is the domestic cat (Felis catus) and the two pathogens are two feline retroviruses

  9. Population dynamics of Megapitaria squalida (Bivalvia: Veneridae) at Magdalena Bay, Baja California Sur, Mexico

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tanja Schweers; Matthias Wolff; Volker Koch; Francisco Sinsel Duarte

    2006-01-01

    The population dynamics of an intertidal population of Megapitaria squalida was studied from September 2002 to February 2003 in Bahía Magdalena, Mexico. To obtain information about the artisanal and recreational fishery of M. squalida, local fishermen at different parts of the bay were interviewed. Clam densities were determined at one unexploited and two exploited sites along perpendicular transects from the

  10. Modelling the effects of persecution on the population dynamics of golden eagles in Scotland

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. P Whitfield; A. H Fielding; D. R. A Mcleod; P. F Haworth

    2004-01-01

    We used observations of the age structure and breeding productivity of the Scottish population of golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos together with the classic theory of population dynamics to derive current `unmanipulated' estimates of life history parameters. We then used regional differences in age structure associated with differences in persecution intensity to derive estimates of prospective `persecution-free' life history parameters. The

  11. Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant populations

    E-print Network

    Barrett, C.H.

    Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant in populations of dioecious plants. Key words: Biased sex ratios, costs of reproduction, dioecy, stress gradients January 2013 Published electronically: 26 February 2013 Background and Aims Populations of dioecious

  12. Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant populations

    E-print Network

    Barrett, C.H.

    Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant January 2013 Background and Aims Populations of dioecious flowering plants commonly exhibit heterogeneity each play important roles in affecting flowering sex ratios in populations of dioecious plants. Key

  13. Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

    E-print Network

    Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos, 2008 (sent for review December 10, 2007) The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia ancient DNA serial coalescent simulations The brown bear (Ursus arctos) is listed by the International

  14. From dispersal to landscapes: progress in the understanding of population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    William Z. LIDICKER

    2002-01-01

    The development of our understanding of population dynamics over the past 50 years is reviewed from a personal perspective.\\u000a An early emphasis on population vital rates was superceded by recognition of the importance of the specific community context\\u000a of focal populations, and most recently has in turn been enriched by a landscape perspective. Certain basic principles are\\u000a outlined including the

  15. Can inverse density dependence at small spatial scales produce dynamic instability in animal populations?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Wilson White

    All else being equal, inversely density-dependent (IDD) mortality destabilizes population dynamics. However, stability has\\u000a not been investigated for cases in which multiple types of density dependence act simultaneously. To determine whether IDD\\u000a mortality can destabilize populations that are otherwise regulated by directly density-dependent (DDD) mortality, I used scale\\u000a transition approximations to model populations with IDD mortality at smaller “aggregation” scales

  16. Low genetic diversity and strong but shallow population differentiation suggests genetic homogenization by metapopulation dynamics in a social spider.

    PubMed

    Settepani, V; Bechsgaard, J; Bilde, T

    2014-12-01

    Mating systems and population dynamics influence genetic diversity and structure. Species that experience inbreeding and limited gene flow are expected to evolve isolated, divergent genetic lineages. Metapopulation dynamics with frequent extinctions and colonizations may, on the other hand, deplete and homogenize genetic variation, if extinction rate is sufficiently high compared to the effect of drift in local demes. We investigated these theoretical predictions empirically in social spiders that are highly inbred. Social spiders show intranest mating, female-biased sex ratio, and frequent extinction and colonization events, factors that deplete genetic diversity within nests and populations and limit gene flow. We characterized population genetic structure in Stegodyphus sarasinorum, a social spider distributed across the Indian subcontinent. Species-wide genetic diversity was estimated over approximately 2800 km from Sri Lanka to Himalayas, by sequencing 16 protein-coding nuclear loci. We found 13 SNPs in 6592 bp (? = 0.00045) indicating low species-wide nucleotide diversity. Three genetic lineages were strongly differentiated; however, only one fixed difference among them suggests recent divergence. This is consistent with a scenario of metapopulation dynamics that homogenizes genetic diversity across the species' range. Ultimately, low standing genetic variation may hamper a species' ability to track environmental change and render social inbreeding spiders 'evolutionary dead-ends'. PMID:25348843

  17. Could parasites destabilize mouse populations? The potential role of Pterygodermatites peromysci in the population dynamics of free-living mice, Peromyscus leucopus.

    PubMed

    Vandegrift, Kurt J; Hudson, Peter J

    2009-09-01

    Peromyscus leucopus populations exhibit unstable population dynamics. Mathematical models predict instability with chronic parasite infections that reduce host fecundity when the parasite distribution within the host population is close to random. We examined the role the nematode Pterygodermatites peromysci may play in influencing the dynamics of these mice. There were seven gastrointestinal worms infecting mice. Pterygodermatites peromysci was the most prevalent and varied seasonally from 12.3% in November to 36.0% in July. Prevalence was higher in adults (30.8%) than juveniles (4.6%) and there were no statistical differences in prevalence or intensity between the sexes. Overall the distribution was random; the relationship between log variance and log mean of P. peromysci intensity from 17 sites was not significantly different from unity. There were significant relationships between infection and breeding condition, suggesting parasites could be the cause of reduced female breeding. A generalized linear model found the likelihood of P. peromysci infection in adults increased with body mass, the presence of other helminths, and when hosts were in breeding condition. Likewise, the intensity of infection was positively related to co-infections and body mass. Pterygodermatites peromysci infection was associated with the presence of the oxyurid nematode Syphacia peromysci but co-infection was lower in females than males. Amongst females, co-infection was greater when breeding, particularly during lactation. The P. peromysci age-intensity relationship increased with age and rose to an asymptote as expected for a parasite with constant mortality and no acquired immunity. Overall, P. peromysci had a random distribution and was associated with reduced breeding; we discuss how these destabilizing processes may influence the dynamics of P. leucopus. PMID:19409901

  18. A comparison between predicted and measured feedgas emissions for dynamic engine operation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. R. Hamburg; M. J. Throop

    1984-01-01

    Vehicle chassis dynamometer tests were performed to compare predicted and measured total feedgas emissions and fuel economy for dynamic operation of an engine. In general, the tests showed that predictions based on steady-state mapping data agreed well with measured values except for NOx emissions. Subsequent engine-dynamometer tests indicated that the discrepancy between predicted and measured NOx emissions was due to

  19. Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

    E-print Network

    Gabrielov, Andrei

    Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics P. Shebalin a,d , V for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2 13 December 2005 Abstract Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal

  20. Reducing NIR prediction errors with nonlinear methods and large populations of intact compound feedstuffs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Ahumada, E.; Fearn, T.; Gómez, A.; Vallesquino, P.; Guerrero, J. E.; Pérez-Marín, D.; Garrido-Varo, A.

    2008-08-01

    According to the current demands of the authorities, the manufacturers and the consumers, controls and assessments of the feed compound manufacturing process have become a key concern. Among others, it must be assured that a given compound feed is well manufactured and labelled in terms of the ingredient composition. When near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) together with linear models were used for the prediction of the ingredient composition, the results were not always acceptable. Therefore, the performance of nonlinear methods has been investigated. Artificial neural networks and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) have been applied to a large (N = 20 320) and heterogeneous population of non-milled feed compounds for the NIR prediction of the inclusion percentage of wheat and sunflower meal, as representative of two different classes of ingredients. Compared to partial least squares regression, results showed considerable reductions of standard error of prediction values for both methods and ingredients: reductions of 45% with ANN and 49% with LS-SVM for wheat and reductions of 44% with ANN and 46% with LS-SVM for sunflower meal. These improvements together with the facility of NIRS technology to be implemented in the process make it ideal for meeting the requirements of the animal feed industry.

  1. Statistical Prediction and Molecular Dynamics Simulation Ben Cooke* and Scott C. Schmidleryz

    E-print Network

    Schmidler, Scott

    Statistical Prediction and Molecular Dynamics Simulation Ben Cooke* and Scott C. Schmidleryz simulations of macromolecules. We emphasize the use of molecular dynamics simulations to calculate to replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations of a set of eight helical peptides under the AMBER

  2. Predict the Multi-hop Reliability for Receiver-Contention Based Routing in Dynamic

    E-print Network

    Wang, Yongcai

    2 Predict the Multi-hop Reliability for Receiver-Contention Based Routing in Dynamic Link Networks nodes are static, but the links are highly dynamic. Reliable multi-hop communication is critical link dynamics. However, in previous studies of receiver contention routing protocols, the multi-hop

  3. Validation of comprehensive dynamics analysis predictions for a rotor in descending flight

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jae S. Park; Sung N. Jung; Young H. You; Soo H. Park; Yung H. Yu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the prediction capability of comprehensive structural dynamics (CSD) analysis codes for the higher harmonic control aeroacoustic rotor test (HART) II data. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – A nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics analysis code DYMORE, as well as the comprehensive analytical model of rotorcraft aerodynamics and dynamics (CAMRAD) II, are used to perform the

  4. Structure and dynamics of glass formers: Predictability at large length scales Ludovic Berthier*

    E-print Network

    Berthier, Ludovic

    Structure and dynamics of glass formers: Predictability at large length scales Ludovic Berthier formers has been related to their static structure using the concept of dynamic propensity. We reexamine dynamical relaxation 2­11 , but their structure, as measured by two-point correlation functions, appears

  5. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

  6. Comprehensive Assessment and Mathematical Modeling of T Cell Population Dynamics and Homeostasis1

    E-print Network

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Comprehensive Assessment and Mathematical Modeling of T Cell Population Dynamics and Homeostasis1 from separate experimental systems and is thus patchy. We reassessed homeostasis and dynamics features of a resilient im- mune system regulated by homeostasis (1). The immune system efficacy

  7. Prey Preference, Intraguild Predation and Population Dynamics of an Arthropod Food Web on Plants

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Madelaine Venzon; Arne Janssen; Maurice W. Sabelis

    2001-01-01

    The theory of intraguild predation (IGP) largely studies effects on equilibrium densities of predators and prey, while experiments mostly concern transient dynamics. We studied the effects of an intraguild (IG) predator, the bug Orius laevigatus, on the population dynamics of IG-prey, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, and a shared prey, the phytophagous two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae, as well as

  8. Inferring neural population dynamics from multiple partial recordings of the same neural circuit

    E-print Network

    Inferring neural population dynamics from multiple partial recordings of the same neural circuit The computation performed by a neural circuit is a product of the properties of single neurons in the circuit and their connectivity. Simultaneous measurements of the collective dynamics of all neurons in a neural circuit will help

  9. Two-sex matrix models in assessing population viability: when do male dynamics matter?

    E-print Network

    Gerber, Leah R.

    targeted for management may therefore respond differ- ently for males and females and for different to estimate risk of extinction. In this paper, we examine the importance of including both males and females population dynamics. Male and female mortality appear to exhibit different dynamics for a wide range of taxa

  10. Experimental study on population-based incremental learning algorithms for dynamic optimization problems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shengxiang Yang; Xin Yao

    2005-01-01

    Evolutionary algorithms have been widely used for stationary optimization problems. However, the environments of real world problems are often dynamic. This seriously challenges traditional evolutionary algorithms. In this paper, the application of population-based incremental learning (PBIL) algorithms, a class of evolutionary algorithms, for dynamic problems is investigated. Inspired by the complementarity mechanism in nature a Dual PBIL is proposed, which

  11. Transitional dynamics in the Solow-Swan growth model with AK technology and logistic population change

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alberto BUCCI; Luca GUERRINI

    2008-01-01

    This paper offers an alternative way, based on the logistic population growth hypothesis, to yield transitional dynamics in the standard AK model with exogenous savings rate. Within this framework, we show that the dynamics of the capital stock per person and its growth rate can be non-monotonic over time. Moreover, even in the presence of negative growth, the capital stock

  12. An overview of the population dynamics in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Arshat, H; Tey Nai Peng

    1988-06-01

    Between 1900 and 1985 the population of Malaysia has increased from 2 million to 16 million. Before World War II most of the growth was due to immigration from China and India; after World War II it was due to natural increase. The crude birth rate appears to be leveling off at about 31.3 and the crude death rate at 5.3. At the current rate of growth the total population will be about 32 million by 2015. The proportion of urban population increased from 27% in 1979 to 34% in 1980. In 1980 83% of the population lived in Peninsular Malaysia (39% of the land area), and 17% lived in Sabah and Sarawak (61% of the land area). Population density ranges from 12 persons per square kilometer in Sarawak to 4521 in the Federal Republic of Kuala Lumpur. The median age of the population is 17.4 years; 40% are under 14, and 3.6% are over 65. In most age groups there are more women than men. The annual growth rate for Malays is higher than for Chinese and Indians, and Malays constituted 55% of the population in 1980. 34% are Chinese and 10% are Indian. Total fertility rate declined from 68/1000 in 1957 to 39/1000 in 1985. Malay fertility (4.8 children) is higher than either Indian (2.9) or Chinese (2.7) Malay fertility has been increasing while that of Indians and Chinese is decreasing due to contraception. Also, among all 3 groups age at marriage has increased. Data from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey show that the differential fertility of the 3 groups is due largely to rural/urban distribution, education, and work patterns. Ideal family size, according to the survey, is 4.8. The National Population and Family Development Program would like to achieve a growth rate of 2%/year, and family planning knowledge has become virtually universal. KAP surveys show that by 1984 contraceptive prevalence was 51%; however 42% of all eligible women were using unreliable methods. In terms of efficient methods, contraceptive prevalence rate was 16% for Malays, 47% for Chinese, and 40% for Indians. Crude death rate has declined to less than 6/1000, largely due to reductions in infant and child mortality. Internal migration to the cities has done much to achieve the objectives of the New Economic Policy to equalize location and vocations of the 3 ethnic groups. Urbanization has slowed since the launching of various land development schemes in the 1960s. The population policy of the government is to achieve a stabilized population of 70 million by year 2070, which means that the fertility level must decrease from 4 to 2 children per woman. By 2000 when the population is expected to reach 22.4 million, the percentages of Malays, Chinese, and Indians is expected to be 61.5%, 28.7%, and 9.8% respectively. PMID:12281592

  13. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Lian-Ao [IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science, 48011 Bilbao (Spain); Department of Theoretical Physics and History of Science, Basque Country University (EHU/UPV), P.O. Box 644, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul [Chemical Physics Theory Group, Department of Chemistry and Center for Quantum Information and Quantum Control, University of Toronto, Toronto M5S 3H6 (Canada); Egusquiza, Inigo L. [Department of Theoretical Physics and History of Science, The Basque Country University (EHU/UPV), P.O. Box 644, 48080 Bilbao (Spain)

    2010-09-15

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time {tau}.

  14. Universality in Exact Quantum State Population Dynamics and Control

    E-print Network

    Lian-Ao Wu; Dvira Segal; Inigo L. Egusquiza; Paul Brumer

    2009-11-16

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time being exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: it holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters a \\textit{complete} transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at $t=0$, is fully populated at time $\\tau$.

  15. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    PubMed

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach." PMID:12320644

  16. Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

  17. Framingham Risk Score for Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Study from Southern Europe

    PubMed Central

    Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M.; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A.; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A.; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F.; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Background The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. Methods The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. Results The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). Conclusions The results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe. PMID:24039972

  18. [Dynamics of Sophora davidii population in a hilly region closed for thirty years in Loess Plateau].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wenhu; Xu, Xuehua; Li, Dengwu; Liu, Guobin

    2006-02-01

    Taking wild grass ground as the reference, this paper studied the dynamics of Sophora davidii population on the sunny, semi-sunny and semi-shady slopes of hilly region in Loess Plateau after 30 years closed for reforestation, and analyzed the age structure, spatial distribution pattern, life table, and survival curve of the population. The results showed that S. dvidii population in the region belonged to progressive type, with more young and less old individuals. Among the three habits, semi-sunny slope had the highest population density. The survival curve of S. dvidii population was approached to Deevey 11 type. The population pattern was of clustered distribution, with the aggregating intensity increased with age. Water and light were the main environmental factors affecting the recovery and development of S. davidii community. The better recovery of S. davidii population suggested that the measures of closing the land for reforestation were efficient. PMID:16706034

  19. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  20. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362