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Sample records for prediction horizon effects

  1. Prediction horizon effects on stochastic modelling hints for neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Drossu, R.; Obradovic, Z.

    1995-12-31

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between stochastic models and neural network (NN) approaches to time series modelling. Experiments on a complex real life prediction problem (entertainment video traffic) indicate that prior knowledge can be obtained through stochastic analysis both with respect to an appropriate NN architecture as well as to an appropriate sampling rate, in the case of a prediction horizon larger than one. An improvement of the obtained NN predictor is also proposed through a bias removal post-processing, resulting in much better performance than the best stochastic model.

  2. Stable predictive control horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Raúl; Favela, Antonio; Raimondi, Angelo; Nevado, Antonio; Requena, Ricardo; Beltrán-Carbajal, Francisco

    2012-04-01

    The stability theory of predictive and adaptive predictive control for processes of linear and stable nature is based on the hypothesis of a physically realisable driving desired trajectory (DDT). The formal theoretical verification of this hypothesis is trivial for processes with a stable inverse, but it is not for processes with an unstable inverse. The extended strategy of predictive control was developed with the purpose of overcoming methodologically this stability problem and it has delivered excellent performance and stability in its industrial applications given a suitable choice of the prediction horizon. From a theoretical point of view, the existence of a prediction horizon capable of ensuring stability for processes with an unstable inverse was proven in the literature. However, no analytical solution has been found for the determination of the prediction horizon values which guarantee stability, in spite of the theoretical and practical interest of this matter. This article presents a new method able to determine the set of prediction horizon values which ensure stability under the extended predictive control strategy formulation and a particular performance criterion for the design of the DDT generically used in many industrial applications. The practical application of this method is illustrated by means of simulation examples.

  3. Prediction of over-the-horizon radar clutter using the clutter effects model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauer, Carl; Nickisch, L. J.; Wortman, William

    1998-07-01

    We have developed an over-the-horizon radar (OTHR ) clutter prediction model to better define equatorial clutter environments. This physics-based model is referred to as the clutter effects model, or CLEM. It is nominally configured toward simulation of the Navy's Relocatable OTHR (ROTHR). Radar signal propagation geometry is computed by ray tracing through a global ionosphere model (driven by geophysical conditions, time, and location). The equatorial ionosphere has high levels of field-aligned irregularities which produce strong clutter environments for OTHR. Strengths of modeled ionospheric irregularities are derived from transionospheric scintillation measurement data. Clutter Doppler and delay spreading is analyzed using multiple phase screen forward diffraction techniques. Technical background on an earlier version of CLEM, which performed three-dimensional (3-D) ray tracing, is given by Lauer et al. [1995]. The current version, which is under discussion here, has been sped up through the use of 2-D ray tracing and substitution of a simpler spectral form for the signal delay-Doppler spectrum; however, the reader may refer to Lauer et al [1995] for background on various aspects of the theory which still pertain, including phase diffraction propagation effects, absorption calculations, and ionospheric structure predictions. This paper describes CLEM models and compares CLEM predictions with clutter measurement data for specific cases.

  4. Lagrangian Predictive Skill Assessment for the Deepwater Horizon Spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipphardt, B. L.; Huntley, H. S.; Sulman, M.; Kirwan, A. D.

    2011-12-01

    The explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform produced enormous human, ecological, and economic impacts. At the same time this disaster provided an unprecedented amount of Lagrangian information on ocean processes, including a large number of surface and near-surface drifters deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as remotely sensed images of the surface oil slick. In addition several global and regional ocean model predictions were used to forecast the spill movements. These models generally exhibited large variations in the mesoscale flow near the Deepwater Horizon site, even though they all assimilated similar sets of ocean observations. This provides a unique opportunity to thoroughly assess model Lagrangian predictive skill. Here, the predictive skill of one model, a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), is evaluated using data from more than 80 drifter trajectories in the northern Gulf of Mexico. These trajectories are compared with maps of Lagrangian coherent structures, computed from near-surface model velocities, to determine whether the observations are consistent with the larger scale transport structure predicted by the model. We also discuss new metrics to assess model Lagrangian predictive skill of the plume movement.

  5. Optimal dosing of cancer chemotherapy using model predictive control and moving horizon state/parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tao; Kirkby, Norman F; Jena, Raj

    2012-12-01

    Model predictive control (MPC), originally developed in the community of industrial process control, is a potentially effective approach to optimal scheduling of cancer therapy. The basis of MPC is usually a state-space model (a system of ordinary differential equations), whereby existing studies usually assume that the entire states can be directly measured. This paper aims to demonstrate that when the system states are not fully measurable, in conjunction with model parameter discrepancy, MPC is still a useful method for cancer treatment. This aim is achieved through the application of moving horizon estimation (MHE), an optimisation-based method to jointly estimate the system states and parameters. The effectiveness of the MPC-MHE scheme is illustrated through scheduling the dose of tamoxifen for simulated tumour-bearing patients, and the impact of estimation horizon and magnitude of parameter discrepancy is also investigated. PMID:22739208

  6. Model predictive torque control with an extended prediction horizon for electrical drive systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengxiang; Zhang, Zhenbin; Kennel, Ralph; Rodríguez, José

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a model predictive torque control method for electrical drive systems. A two-step prediction horizon is achieved by considering the reduction of the torque ripples. The electromagnetic torque and the stator flux error between predicted values and the references, and an over-current protection are considered in the cost function design. The best voltage vector is selected by minimising the value of the cost function, which aims to achieve a low torque ripple in two intervals. The study is carried out experimentally. The results show that the proposed method achieves good performance in both steady and transient states.

  7. Planning horizon for a predictive optimal controller for thermal energy storage systems

    SciTech Connect

    Krarti, M.; Henze, G.P.; Bell, D.

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a detailed simulation analysis to determine the planning horizon for a predictive optimal controller for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The objective of the simulation analysis is to determine the sensitivity of the performance of a TES optimal controller and the planning horizon length to different design parameters, including: chiller capacity, cooling plant model, storage system capacity, and load profile. The analysis is performed using two commercial buildings: a 20-floor office building in Wisconsin, and a hotel in California.

  8. [New horizons in medicine. Complexity and predictability in internal medicine].

    PubMed

    Guarini, G; Onofri, E

    1993-10-01

    Being a highly sophisticated structure, the human body should be considered on a physical level as a whole of inter-correlated non-linear dynamic systems, which are by definition, complex systems because they are always conditioned in their operativity by numerous variables. We must draw attention to the opportunity that within the field of medical science the concept of complexity referring to diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostical problems, is distinct between structural and functional. The functional complexity of a system, a phenomena, an event, MY be recognized in its dynamics, only if analysed using modern methods recently brought to light, on the relationship which exist between classic determinism and deterministic chaos. Furthermore, also on practical level, the recent discoveries on the general principles, which are at the base of the functional complexity of non-linear dynamic systems, demonstrate exactly how fragile is the probabilistic predictability which guides a doctor in clinical reasoning in all its various stages; in the gathering of anamnestic and objective data; in the programming the researches aimed at confirming the validness of the diagnosis; in the therapy aimed at reaching the best possible results; in the prognosis which summarize the destiny of the binomial patient illness. The scientific enunciate of universal nature, which demonstrate how, from a tiny uncertainty in the initial functional data of a system, of a phenomena, of an event can unleash a condition of absolute unpredictability, find daily confirmation in both clinical and experimental medicine.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:8235036

  9. Generalized minimum variance control under long-range prediction horizon setups.

    PubMed

    Silveira, Antonio; Trentini, Rodrigo; Coelho, Antonio; Kutzner, Rüdiger; Hofmann, Lutz

    2016-05-01

    This paper presents the design and evaluation of a minimal order Generalized Minimum Variance controller with long-range prediction horizon and how it affects the controller and plant output variances. This study investigates how the increased prediction horizon can contribute to mitigate stochastic disturbances and attenuate oscillations. In order to design high order prediction minimum variance filters, a design procedure independent of the Diophantine Equation solution is used. The evaluation is conducted through simulations and practical essays with two different plants: a first order water flow rate problem and a second order under-damped electronic circuit. Both problems are assessed under an incremental control scheme and based on identified stochastic models. Also, two optimal tuning procedures for the algorithm are proposed. PMID:26899555

  10. Dynamic Universe Model Predicts the Trajectory of New Horizons Satellite Going to Pluto.......

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naga Parameswara Gupta, Satyavarapu

    2012-07-01

    New Horizons is NASA's artificial satellite now going towards to the dwarf planet Pluto. It has crossed Jupiter. It is expected to be the rst spacecraft to go near and study Pluto and its moons, Charon, Nix, and Hydra. These are the predictions for New Horizons (NH) space craft as on A.D. 2009-Aug-09 00:00:00.0000 hrs. The behavior of NH is similar to Pioneer Space craft as NH traveling is alike to Pioneer. NH is supposed to reach Pluto in 2015 AD. There was a gravity assist taken at Jupiter about a year back. As Dynamic universe model explains Pioneer anomaly and the higher gravitational attraction forces experienced towards SUN, It can explain NH also in a similar fashion. I am giving the predictions for NH by Dynamic Universe Model in the following Table 4. Here first two rows give Dynamic Universe Model predictions based on 02-01-2009 00:00 hrs data with Daily time step and hourly time step. Third row gives Ephemeris from Jet propulsion lab.Dynamic Universe Model can predict further to 9-Aug-2009. These Ephemeris data is from their web as on 28th June 2009 Any new data can be calculated..... For finding trajectories of Pioneer satellite (Anomaly), New Horizons satellite going to Pluto, the Calculations of Dynamic Universe model can be successfully applied. No dark matter is assumed within solar system radius. The effect on the masses around SUN shows as though there is extra gravitation pull toward SUN. It solves the Dynamics of Extra-solar planets like Planet X, satellite like Pioneer and NH for 3-Position, 3-velocity 3-acceleration for their masses,considering the complex situation of Multiple planets, Stars, Galaxy parts and Galaxy center and other Galaxies Using simple Newtonian Physics. It already solved problems Missing mass in Galaxies observed by galaxy circular velocity curves successfully. `SITA Simulations' software was developed about 18 years back for Dynamic Universe Model of Cosmology. It is based on Newtonian physics. It is Classical singularity

  11. Modeling the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and forest composition in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genet, H.; Barrett, K. M.; Johnstone, J. F.; McGuire, A. D.; Yuan, F.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Kasischke, E. S.; Rupp, S. T.; Turetsky, M. R.

    2012-12-01

    The fire regime in the boreal region of interior Alaska has been intensifying in terms of both area burned and severity over the last three decades. Based on projections of climate change, this trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. Fire causes abrupt changes in energy, nutrient and water balances influencing habitat and vegetation composition. An important factor influencing these changes is the reduction of the soil organic horizon because of differential regeneration capabilities of conifer and evergreen shrubs vs. deciduous and herbaceous vegetation on organic vs. mineral soils. The goal of this study is to develop a prognostic model to simulate the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and to evaluate its long-term consequences on forest composition in interior Alaska. Existing field observations were analyzed to build a predictive model of the depth of burning of soil organic horizon after a fire. The model is driven by data sets of fire occurrence, climate, and topography. Post-fire vegetation succession was simulated as a function of post-fire organic horizon depth. The fire severity and post-fire vegetation succession models were then implemented within a biogeochemistry model, the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Simulations for 21st century climate scenarios at a 1 by 1km resolution for the Alaska Yukon River Basin were conducted to evaluate the effects of considering vs. ignoring post-fire vegetation succession on carbon dynamics. The results of these simulations indicate that it is important for ecosystem models to represent the influence of fire severity on post-fire vegetation succession in order to fully understand the consequences of changes in climate and disturbance regimes on boreal ecosystems.

  12. Near-horizon description of extremal magnetized stationary black holes and Meissner effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bičák, Jiří; Hejda, Filip

    2015-11-01

    After a brief summary of the basic properties of stationary spacetimes representing rotating, charged black holes in strong axisymmetric magnetic fields, we concentrate on extremal cases, for which the horizon surface gravity vanishes. We investigate their properties by constructing simpler spacetimes that exhibit their geometries near degenerate horizons. Starting from the symmetry arguments we find that the near-horizon geometries of extremal magnetized Kerr-Newman black holes can be characterized by just one dimensionless parameter: "effective Kerr-Newman mixing angle." Employing the near-horizon geometries we demonstrate the Meissner effect of magnetic field expulsion from extremal black holes.

  13. Environmental effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: A review.

    PubMed

    Beyer, Jonny; Trannum, Hilde C; Bakke, Torgeir; Hodson, Peter V; Collier, Tracy K

    2016-09-15

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill constituted an ecosystem-level injury in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Much oil spread at 1100-1300m depth, contaminating and affecting deepwater habitats. Factors such as oil-biodegradation, ocean currents and response measures (dispersants, burning) reduced coastal oiling. Still, >2100km of shoreline and many coastal habitats were affected. Research demonstrates that oiling caused a wide range of biological effects, although worst-case impact scenarios did not materialize. Biomarkers in individual organisms were more informative about oiling stress than population and community indices. Salt marshes and seabird populations were hard hit, but were also quite resilient to oiling effects. Monitoring demonstrated little contamination of seafood. Certain impacts are still understudied, such as effects on seagrass communities. Concerns of long-term impacts remain for large fish species, deep-sea corals, sea turtles and cetaceans. These species and their habitats should continue to receive attention (monitoring and research) for years to come. PMID:27301686

  14. Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine as the hardcore of ‘Horizon 2020’: EPMA position paper

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The European Association for Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine (EPMA) considers acute problems in medical sciences as well as the quality and management of medical services challenging health care systems in Europe and worldwide. This actuality has motivated the representatives of EPMA to comment on the efforts in promoting an integrative approach based on multidisciplinary expertise to advance health care-related research and management. The current paper provides a global overview of the problems related to medical services: pandemic scenario in the progression of common non-communicable diseases, delayed interventional approaches of reactive medicine, poor economy of health care systems, lack of specialised educational programmes, problematic ethical aspects of several treatments as well as inadequate communication among professional groups and policymakers. In the form of individual paragraphs, the article presents a consolidated position of PPPM professionals towards the new European programme ‘Horizon 2020’ providing the long-lasting instruments for scientific and technological progress in medical services and health care-related programmes. In the author's opinion, Horizon 2020 provides unlimited room for research and implementation in Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine. However, the overall success of the programme strongly depends on the effective communication and consolidation of professionals relevant for PPPM as well as the communication quality with policymakers. Smart political decision is the prerequisite of the effective PPPM implementation in the health care sector. This position is focused on the patients' needs, innovative medical sciences, optimal health and disease management, expert recommendations for the relevant medical fields and optimal solutions which have a potential to advance health care services if the long-term strategies were to be effectively implemented as proposed here. PMID:24708704

  15. Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

    2016-04-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

  16. Predicted Atmospheric Temperature Retrievals for the New Horizons Encounter with Pluto.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalucha, Angela M.

    2014-11-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft will flyby Pluto this July. Three opportunities for observing the temperature vs. height will present themselves: A radio occultaion of radio signals transmitted from Earth to the Radio Science Experiment (REX) instrument, a stellar occultation of a background star as seen by Alice, and a stellar occultation of the Sun as seen by Alice. The temperature vs. height profiles will be generated using the Pluto version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model, which now includes radiative-conductive forcing from the Strobel et al. (1996) model, a multilayer subsurface, and a volatile cycle. The simulations begin in the year 1986 and end at the date of the New Horizons encounter. The Pluto conditions that will be discussed are (1) a surface albedo pattern taken from Buie et al. (2010), (2) a "best case" surface N2 ice distribution and temperature from the Hansen and Paige (1996) model, (3) a configuration where there is initially no surface N2 ice, and (4) a configuration where there is effectively infinitely deep surface N2 ice.

  17. An atmospheric general circulation model for Pluto with predictions for New Horizons temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalucha, Angela M.

    2016-06-01

    Results are presented from a 3D Pluto general circulation model (GCM) that includes conductive heating and cooling, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) heating by methane at 2.3 and 3.3 μm, non-LTE cooling by cooling by methane at 7.6 μm, and LTE CO rotational line cooling. The GCM also includes a treatment of the subsurface temperature and surface-atmosphere mass exchange. An initially 1 m thick layer of surface nitrogen frost was assumed such that it was large enough to act as a large heat sink (compared with the solar heating term) but small enough that the water ice subsurface properties were also significant. Structure was found in all three directions of the 3D wind field (with a maximum magnitude of the order of 10 m s-1 in the horizontal directions and 10-5 microbar s-1 in the vertical direction). Prograde jets were found at several altitudes. The direction of flow over the poles was found to very with altitude. Broad regions of up-welling and down-welling were also found. Predictions of vertical temperature profiles are provided for the Alice and Radio science Experiment instruments on New Horizons, while predictions of light curves are provided for ground-based stellar occultation observations. With this model methane concentrations of 0.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent and 8 and 24 microbar surface pressures are distinguishable. For ground-based stellar occultations, a detectable difference exists between light curves with the different methane concentrations, but not for different initial global mean surface pressures.

  18. One method for probabilistic prediction of the material composition of deep crustal horizons using the geophysical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelyaev, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Prediction of the material composition of deep crustal horizons in the Earth from the geophysical data requires an algorithm to classify the rocks according to their petrophysical properties. In the present work, we propose a classification algorithm that is based on the membership function and describe the computer program, which is based on this algorithm and intended for visualization of the most typical crystalline rocks of the Voronezh massif.

  19. Strange Horizons: Teaching Usual and Unusual Atmospheric Effects using APOD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    Unusual Sun and moonsets are not only photogenic -- they are educational. Images appearing on the Astronomy Picture of the Day (APOD) that demonstrate dramatic examples of the green flash, the Moon illusion, Fata Morgana, and the Etruscan vase effect are discussed in terms of how they demonstrate atmospheric refraction, chromatic aberration, and temperature inversions. A lesson plan is given for undergraduate classrooms as well as estimates of how each effect might alter the perceived time of a common sunset.

  20. Hunting Down Horizon-scale Effects with Multi-wavelength Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fonseca, José; Camera, Stefano; Santos, Mário G.; Maartens, Roy

    2015-10-01

    Next-generation cosmological surveys will probe ever larger volumes of the universe, including the largest scales, near and beyond the horizon. On these scales, the galaxy power spectrum carries signatures of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and horizon-scale general relativistic (GR) effects. However, cosmic variance limits the detection of horizon-scale effects. Combining different surveys via the multi-tracer method allows us to reduce the effect of cosmic variance. This method benefits from large bias differences between two tracers of the underlying dark matter distribution, which suggests a multi-wavelength combination of large volume surveys that are planned on a similar timescale. We show that the combination of two contemporaneous surveys, a large neutral hydrogen intensity mapping survey in SKA Phase 1 and a Euclid-like photometric survey, will provide unprecedented constraints on PNG as well as detection of the GR effects. We forecast that the error on local PNG will break through the cosmic variance limit on cosmic microwave background surveys and achieve σ ({f}{{NL}})≃ 1.4-0.5, depending on assumed priors, bias, and sky coverage. GR effects are more robust to changes in the assumed fiducial model, and we forecast that they can be detected with a signal-to-noise of about 14.

  1. Wald's entropy is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of the effective gravitational coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Brustein, Ram; Gorbonos, Dan; Hadad, Merav

    2009-02-15

    The Bekenstein-Hawking entropy of black holes in Einstein's theory of gravity is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of Newton's constant. Wald has proposed that in general theories of gravity the entropy of stationary black holes with bifurcate Killing horizons is a Noether charge which is in general different from the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy. We show that the Noether charge entropy is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of the effective gravitational coupling on the horizon defined by the coefficient of the kinetic term of a specific metric perturbation polarization on the horizon. We present several explicit examples of static spherically symmetric black holes.

  2. The effect of soil horizon and mineral type on the distribution of siderophores in soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Engy; Holmström, Sara J. M.

    2014-04-01

    Iron is a key component of the chemical architecture of the biosphere. Due to the low bioavailability of iron in the environment, microorganisms have developed specific uptake strategies like production of siderophores. Siderophores are operationally defined as low-molecular-mass biogenic Fe(III)-binding compounds, that can increase the bioavailability of iron by promoting the dissolution of iron-bearing minerals. In the present study, we investigated the composition of dissolved and adsorbed siderophores of the hydroxamate family in the soil horizons of podzol and the effect of specific mineral types on siderophores. Three polished mineral specimens of 3 cm × 4 cm × 3 mm (apatite, biotite and oligioclase) were inserted in the soil horizons (O (organic), E (eluvial) and B (upper illuvial)). After two years, soil samples were collected from both the bulk soil of the whole profile and from the soil attached to the mineral surfaces. The concentration of ten different fungal tri-hydroxamates within ferrichromes, fusigen and coprogens families, and five bacterial hydroxamates within the ferrioxamine family were detected. All hydroxamate types were determined in both soil water (dissolved) and soil methanol (adsorbed) extracts along the whole soil profile by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS); hence, the study is the most extensive of its kind. We found that coprogens and fusigen were present in much higher concentrations in bulk soil than were ferrioxamines and ferrichromes. On the other hand, the presence of the polished mineral completely altered the distribution of siderophores. In addition, each mineral had a unique interaction with the dissolved and adsorbed hydroxamates in the different soil horizons. Thus siderophore composition in the soil environment is controlled by the chemical, physical and biological characteristics of each soil horizon and also by the available mineral types.

  3. Multitissue molecular, genomic, and developmental effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on resident Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis).

    PubMed

    Dubansky, Benjamin; Whitehead, Andrew; Miller, Jeffrey T; Rice, Charles D; Galvez, Fernando

    2013-05-21

    The Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster resulted in crude oil contamination along the Gulf coast in sensitive estuaries. Toxicity from exposure to crude oil can affect populations of fish that live or breed in oiled habitats as seen following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. In an ongoing study of the effects of Deepwater Horizon crude oil on fish, Gulf killifish ( Fundulus grandis ) were collected from an oiled site (Grande Terre, LA) and two reference locations (coastal MS and AL) and monitored for measures of exposure to crude oil. Killifish collected from Grande Terre had divergent gene expression in the liver and gill tissue coincident with the arrival of contaminating oil and up-regulation of cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) protein in gill, liver, intestine, and head kidney for over one year following peak landfall of oil (August 2011) compared to fish collected from reference sites. Furthermore, laboratory exposures of Gulf killifish embryos to field-collected sediments from Grande Terre and Barataria Bay, LA, also resulted in increased CYP1A and developmental abnormalities when exposed to sediments collected from oiled sites compared to exposure to sediments collected from a reference site. These data are predictive of population-level impacts in fish exposed to sediments from oiled locations along the Gulf of Mexico coast. PMID:23659337

  4. Effects of COREXIT EC9500A on bacterial communities influenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fulmer, P. A.; Hamdan, L. J.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria are important to controlling the fate of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons in the marine environment and will be an important component to the natural attenuation of the Deepwater Horizon spill. The chemical dispersant COREXIT®EC9500A was widely deployed during the Deepwater Horizon response. Although toxicity tests confirm that COREXIT®EC9500A does not pose a significant threat to invertebrate and adult fish populations, there is limited information on its effect on microbial communities. Microbial community composition was determined in freshly deposited oil on a beach in Louisiana, resulting from the spill. Secondary heterotrophic production and viability in cultures obtained from oil samples was determined in the presence and absence of COREXIT®EC9500A . Vibrio isolates were abundant in length heterogeneity-PCR fingerprints of oil samples along with hydrocarbon-degrading isolates affiliated with Acinetobacter and Marinobacter. Significant reductions in Acinetobacter and Marinobacter production and viability in the presence of the dispersant compared to controls were observed. Marinobacter is most sensitive to the dispersant as evidenced by a near 100% reduction in viability and production as a result of exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of the dispersant. Significantly, at the same dispersant concentration, non-hydrocarbon-degrading Vibrio isolates proliferate. These data suggest that hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria are inhibited by this dispersants and that it’s use could potentially diminish the capacity of environmental microbial communities to bioremediate the spill.

  5. Solar Wind Prediction at Pluto During the New Horizons Flyby: Results From a Two-Dimensional Multi-fluid MHD Model of the Outer Heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zieger, B.; Toth, G.; Opher, M.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2015-12-01

    We adapted the outer heliosphere (OH) component of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, which is a 3-D global multi-fluid MHD model of the outer heliosphere with one ion fluid and four neutral populations, for time-dependent 2-D multi-fluid MHD simulations of solar wind propagation from a heliocentric distance of 1 AU up to 50 AU. We used this model to predict the solar wind plasma parameters as well as the interplanetary magnetic field components at Pluto and along the New Horizons trajectory during the whole calendar year of 2015 including the closest approach on July 14. The simulation is run in the solar equatorial plane in the heliographic inertial frame (HGI). The inner boundary conditions along a circle of 1 AU radius are set by near-Earth solar wind observations (hourly OMNI data), assuming that the global solar wind distribution does not change much during a Carrington rotation (27.2753 days). Our 2-D multi-fluid MHD code evolves one ion fluid and two neutral fluids, which are the primary interstellar neutral atoms and the interstellar neutral atoms deflected in the outer heliosheath between the slow bow shock and the heliopause. Spherical expansion effects are properly taken into account for the ions and the solar magnetic field. The inflow parameters of the two neutral fluids (density, temperature, and velocity components) are set at the negative X (HGI) boundary at 50 AU distance, which are taken from previous 3-D global multi-fluid MHD simulations of the heliospheric interface in a much larger simulation box (1500x1500x1500 AU). The inflow velocity vectors of the two neutral fluids define the so-called hydrogen deflection plane. The solar wind ions and the interstellar neutrals interact through charge exchange source terms included in the multi-fluid MHD equations, so the two neutral populations are evolved self-consistently. We validate our model with the available plasma data from New Horizons as well as with Voyager 2 plasma and magnetic field

  6. HORIZON SENSING

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk, Sc.D.

    2002-07-31

    Real-time horizon sensing (HS) on continuous mining (CM) machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade HS systems has been ongoing this quarter at Oxbow Mining Company, Monterey Coal Company (EXXON), FMC Trona, Twentymile Coal Company (RAG America), and SASOL Coal. Detailed monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (United States) and IEC (International) certification.

  7. Quantum-gravity effects outside the horizon spark black to white hole tunneling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haggard, Hal M.; Rovelli, Carlo

    2015-11-01

    We show that there is a classical metric satisfying the Einstein equations outside a finite spacetime region where matter collapses into a black hole and then emerges from a white hole. We compute this metric explicitly. We show how quantum theory determines the (long) time for the process to happen. A black hole can thus quantum tunnel into a white hole. For this to happen, quantum gravity should affect the metric also in a small region outside the horizon; we show that, contrary to what is commonly assumed, this is not forbidden by causality or by the semiclassical approximation, because quantum effects can pile up over a long time. This scenario alters radically the discussion on the black hole information puzzle.

  8. Fluctuating black hole horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Jianwei

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we treat the black hole horizon as a physical boundary to the spacetime and study its dynamics following from the Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary term. Using the Kerr black hole as an example we derive an effective action that describes, in the large wave number limit, a massless Klein-Gordon field living on the average location of the boundary. Complete solutions can be found in the small rotation limit of the black hole. The formulation suggests that the boundary can be treated in the same way as any other matter contributions. In particular, the angular momentum of the boundary matches exactly with that of the black hole, suggesting an interesting possibility that all charges (including the entropy) of the black hole are carried by the boundary. Using this as input, we derive predictions on the Planck scale properties of the boundary.

  9. HORIZON SENSING

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-03-18

    With the aid of a DOE grant (No. DE-FC26-01NT41050), Stolar Research Corporation (Stolar) developed the Horizon Sensor (HS) to distinguish between the different layers of a coal seam. Mounted on mining machine cutter drums, HS units can detect or sense the horizon between the coal seam and the roof and floor rock, providing the opportunity to accurately mine the section of the seam most desired. HS also enables accurate cutting of minimum height if that is the operator's objective. Often when cutting is done out-of-seam, the head-positioning function facilitates a fixed mining height to minimize dilution. With this technology, miners can still be at a remote location, yet cut only the clean coal, resulting in a much more efficient overall process. The objectives of this project were to demonstrate the feasibility of horizon sensing on mining machines and demonstrate that Horizon Sensing can allow coal to be cut cleaner and more efficiently. Stolar's primary goal was to develop the Horizon Sensor (HS) into an enabling technology for full or partial automation or ''agile mining''. This technical innovation (R&D 100 Award Winner) is quickly demonstrating improvements in productivity and miner safety at several prominent coal mines in the United States. In addition, the HS system can enable the cutting of cleaner coal. Stolar has driven the HS program on the philosophy that cutting cleaner coal means burning cleaner coal. The sensor, located inches from the cutting bits, is based upon the physics principles of a Resonant Microstrip Patch Antenna (RMPA). When it is in proximity of the rock-coal interface, the RMPA impedance varies depending on the thickness of uncut coal. The impedance is measured by the computer-controlled electronics and then sent by radio waves to the mining machine. The worker at the machine can read the data via a Graphical User Interface, displaying a color-coded image of the coal being cut, and direct the machine appropriately. The Horizon Sensor

  10. Killing Horizons Kill Horizon Degrees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergamin, L.; Grumiller, D.

    Frequently, it is argued that the microstates responsible for the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy should arise from some physical degrees of freedom located near or on the black hole horizon. In this essay, we elucidate that instead entropy may emerge from the conversion of physical degrees of freedom, attached to a generic boundary, into unobservable gauge degrees of freedom attached to the horizon. By constructing the reduced phase space, it can be demonstrated that such a transmutation indeed takes place for a large class of black holes, including Schwarzschild.

  11. The effect of moisture content on the thermal conductivity of moss and organic soil horizons from black spruce ecosystems in interior alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, J. A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.

    2009-01-01

    Organic soil horizons function as important controls on the thermal state of near-surface soil and permafrost in high-latitude ecosystems. The thermal conductivity of organic horizons is typically lower than mineral soils and is closely linked to moisture content, bulk density, and water phase. In this study, we examined the relationship between thermal conductivity and soil moisture for different moss and organic horizon types in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska. We sampled organic horizons from feather moss-dominated and Sphagnum-dominated stands and divided horizons into live moss and fibrous and amorphous organic matter. Thermal conductivity measurements were made across a range of moisture contents using the transient line heat source method. Our findings indicate a strong positive and linear relationship between thawed thermal conductivity (Kt) and volumetric water content. We observed similar regression parameters (?? or slope) across moss types and organic horizons types and small differences in ??0 (y intercept) across organic horizon types. Live Sphagnum spp. had a higher range of Kt than did live feather moss because of the field capacity (laboratory based) of live Sphagnum spp. In northern regions, the thermal properties of organic soil horizons play a critical role in mediating the effects of climate warming on permafrost conditions. Findings from this study could improve model parameterization of thermal properties in organic horizons and enhance our understanding of future permafrost and ecosystem dynamics. ?? 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

  12. Effects of external feedback about body tilt: Influence on the Subjective Proprioceptive Horizon.

    PubMed

    Bringoux, L; Bourdin, C; Nougier, V; Raphel, C

    2006-11-01

    The present study investigated a cognitive aspect upon spatial perception, namely the impact of a true or false verbal feedback (FB) about the magnitude of body tilt on Subjective Proprioceptive Horizon (SPH) estimates. Subjects were asked to set their extended arm normal to gravity for different pitch body tilts up to 9 degrees . True FB were provided at all body tilt angles, whereas false FB were provided only at 6 degrees backward and 6 degrees forward body tilts for half of the trials. Our data confirmed previous results about the egocentric influence of body tilt itself upon SPH: estimates were linearly lowered with forward tilts and elevated with backward tilts. In addition, results showed a significant effect of the nature of the external FB provided to the subjects. When subjects received a false FB inducing a 3 degrees forward bias relative to physical body tilt, they set their SPH consequently higher than when they received a false FB inducing a 3 degrees backward bias. These findings clearly indicated that false cognitive information about body tilt might significantly modify the judgement of a geocentric direction of space, such as the SPH. This may have deleterious repercussions in aeronautics when pilots have to localize external objects relative to earth-based directions in darkened environments. PMID:16982145

  13. A statistical representation of the cosmological constant from finite size effects at the apparent horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viaggiu, Stefano

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we present a statistical description of the cosmological constant in terms of massless bosons (gravitons). To this purpose, we use our recent results implying a non vanishing temperature {T_{Λ }} for the cosmological constant. In particular, we found that a non vanishing T_{Λ } allows us to depict the cosmological constant Λ as composed of elementary oscillations of massless bosons of energy hbar ω by means of the Bose-Einstein distribution. In this context, as happens for photons in a medium, the effective phase velocity v_g of these massless excitations is not given by the speed of light c but it is suppressed by a factor depending on the number of quanta present in the universe at the apparent horizon. We found interesting formulas relating the cosmological constant, the number of quanta N and the mean value overline{λ } of the wavelength of the gravitons. In this context, we study the possibility to look to the gravitons system so obtained as being very near to be a Bose-Einstein condensate. Finally, an attempt is done to write down the Friedmann flat equations in terms of N and overline{λ }.

  14. Effects of sediment amended with Deepwater Horizon incident slick oil on the infaunal amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus.

    PubMed

    Lotufo, Guilherme R; Farrar, J Daniel; Biedenbach, James M; Laird, Jennifer G; Krasnec, Michelle O; Lay, Claire; Morris, Jeffrey M; Gielazyn, Michel L

    2016-08-15

    Crude oil released from the Deepwater Horizon disaster into the Gulf of Mexico posed potential impacts to infaunal invertebrates inhabiting near shore habitats. The effects of sediment-associated weathered slick oil on the amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus was assessed using 28-d exposures to total PAH sediment concentrations ranging from 0.3 to 24mg/kg (sum of 50 PAHs or tPAH50). Survival and growth rate were significantly decreased in the 2.6, 11.4 and 24.2mg/kg treatments, but only growth in 5.5mg/kg. Offspring production was dramatically decreased but was variable and significantly different only for 24.2mg/kg. The concentrations associated with 20% decreases relative to reference were 1.05 (95% CI=0-2.89) mg/kg tPAH50 for growth rate and 0.632 (95% CI=0.11-2.15) mg/kg tPAH50 for offspring production. The concentrations of PAHs affecting amphipods are within the range of concentrations measured in marsh areas reportedly impacted by DWH oil after its release. PMID:27267114

  15. An experimental study of the influence of limited time horizon on positivity effects among young adults using eye-tracking.

    PubMed

    Cypryańska, Marzena; Krejtz, Izabela; Jaskółowska, Aleksandra; Kulawik, Alicja; Żukowska, Aleksandra; De Zavala, Agnieszka Golec; Niewiarowski, Jakub; Nezlek, John B

    2014-12-01

    Compared to younger adults, older adults attend more to positive stimuli, a positivity effect. Older adults have limited time horizons, and they focus on maintaining positive affect, whereas younger adults have unlimited time horizons, and they focus on acquiring knowledge and developing skills. Time horizons were manipulated by asking participants (66 young adults, M age = 20.5 yr., SD = 1.2) to think that their lives would end in three years. Some participants focused on what they would do in these three years (life focus), whereas others focused on the fact that they would die in three years (death focus). Attentional biases to facial expressions of happiness, sadness, fear, anger, and disgust were measured. Participants viewed 20 slides including pairings of a happy face with each of the negative emotions. The dependent measure was the relative attention paid to the faces on each slide. Participants in the experimental conditions exhibited a positivity effect compared to participants in the control condition, although some results suggested that this effect was weaker in the death focus condition than in the life focus condition. PMID:25457091

  16. Effectiveness of the Challenging Horizons After-School Program for Young Adolescents with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Steven W.; Schultz, Brandon K.; DeMars, Christine E.; Davis, Heather

    2011-01-01

    There are no empirically supported psychosocial treatments for adolescents with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study examined the treatment benefits of the Challenging Horizons Program (CHP), a psychosocial treatment program designed to address the impairment and symptoms associated with this disorder in young adolescents.…

  17. EFFECT OF ACID TREATMENT ON DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON RETENTION BY A SPODIC HORIZON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Processes involving the movement of organic substances in forest soils are not well understood. This study was conducted to examine the role of acidic inputs on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mobility, processes affecting the retention of DOV by a B horizon, and SO2-4 adsorption....

  18. Using soil E horizon in salvaged topsoil material - effect on soil texture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Topsoil is a limited natural resource that needs to be efficiently salvaged during landscape reconstruction operations for its further use as topsoil. Current guidelines for borrowed topsoil define topsoil as the surface layer of native soil, or soil A horizon. Using information from nearly 8,000 ...

  19. A production-inventory model with permissible delay incorporating learning effect in random planning horizon using genetic algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kar, Mohuya B.; Bera, Shankar; Das, Debasis; Kar, Samarjit

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a production-inventory model for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand under inflation in a random planning horizon. The supplier offers the retailer fully permissible delay in payment. It is assumed that the time horizon of the business period is random in nature and follows exponential distribution with a known mean. Here learning effect is also introduced for the production cost and setup cost. The model is formulated as profit maximization problem with respect to the retailer and solved with the help of genetic algorithm (GA) and PSO. Moreover, the convergence of two methods—GA and PSO—is studied against generation numbers and it is seen that GA converges rapidly than PSO. The optimum results from methods are compared both numerically and graphically. It is observed that the performance of GA is marginally better than PSO. We have provided some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses to illustrate the model.

  20. Effects of Future Warming and Fire Regime Change on Boreal Soil Organic Horizons and Permafrost Dynamics in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, F.; McGuire, A. D.; Yi, S.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Rupp, T. S.; Breen, A. L.; Kurkowski, T.; Kasischke, E. S.; Harden, J. W.

    2011-12-01

    There is evidence that ongoing climate change is affecting fire frequency, extent, and severity in the interior boreal region of Alaska, and these changes are likely to continue into the future. In this study we couple a landscape fire dynamics model with an ecosystem model in an application to evaluate the long term effects of changes in climate and fire regime on soil organic horizons and permafrost dynamics in interior Alaska. Changes in fire regime were simulated by the Alaska Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model driven by downscaled GCM climate outputs from CCCMA-CGCM3.1 and MPI ECHAM5 models using the A1B scenario at 1km x 1 km resolution for the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. The outputs of ALFRESCO were used to drive the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM). ALFRESCO simulated fire activity would be enhanced through the middle of the 21st Century, after which fire activity would revert to pre-1990 levels because of a shift in forest composition (i.e., fuels) to a greater fraction of deciduous forest. The model framework estimated that the fibrous organic horizon would lose C through the middle of the 21st Century for the warmer ECHAM5 scenario, but would gain C throughout the 21st Century for the CCCMA scenario. The amorphous organic horizon lost C through the 21st Century for both scenarios. The active layer deepened across the basin from about 1 m to between 1.6 and 1.8 m by the middle of the century and then returned to current depth by the end of the 21st Century. These results suggest that it is important to couple changes in the soil organic horizons of boreal ecosystems to permafrost dynamics in order to fully understand the effects of changes in climate and fire regime on regional boreal ecosystem C storage.

  1. Social Pharmacology: Expanding horizons

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, Rituparna; Alloza, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of “social pharmacology” is not covered by the so-called “Phase IV” alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the “life cycle” of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far-reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences. PMID:24987168

  2. Social pharmacology: expanding horizons.

    PubMed

    Maiti, Rituparna; Alloza, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of "social pharmacology" is not covered by the so-called "Phase IV" alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the "life cycle" of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far-reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences. PMID:24987168

  3. New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

    PubMed

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

    2004-11-21

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred). PMID:15534705

  4. Chronic effects of non-weathered and weathered crude oil and dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident on development of larvae of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica.

    PubMed

    Langdon, Chris J; Stefansson, Emily S; Pargee, Suzanne M; Blunt, Susanna M; Gage, Susan J; Stubblefield, William A

    2016-08-01

    The present study examined the effects of chronic exposure of eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) larvae to the water-accommodated fractions of fresh and weathered oils collected from the Deepwater Horizon incident, with and without additions of the dispersant Corexit 9500A, as well as to solutions of Corexit alone. Both shell growth of larvae exposed to test materials for a period of 10 d and larval settlement after 28 d of exposure were the most sensitive endpoints, with the 10-d growth endpoint being less variable among replicates. Growth and settlement endpoints were more sensitive than larval survival and normal development after 10 d and 28 d. Acute-to-chronic ratios calculated in the present study suggest that acute toxicities of oils and dispersant for oysters are not predictive of chronic effect levels for growth and settlement; therefore, chronic bioassays are necessary to assess these sublethal effects, in addition to standard 48-h acute toxicity tests. Comparison of 10% effective concentration (EC10) values for chronic 10-d growth and 28-d settlement endpoints with concentrations of total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (a marker for Corexit) in seawater samples, collected during and after the Deepwater Horizon incident, indicated it was unlikely that elevated concentrations of water-soluble fractions of oil and dispersant in the nearshore environment had significant adverse effects on the growth and settlement of eastern oyster larvae. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2029-2040. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26749151

  5. Boosted apparent horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akcay, Sarp

    Boosted black holes play an important role in General Relativity (GR), especially in relation to the binary black hole problem. Solving Einstein vac- uum equations in the strong field regime had long been the holy grail of numerical relativity until the significant breakthroughs made in 2005 and 2006. Numerical relativity plays a crucial role in gravitational wave detection by providing numerically generated gravitational waveforms that help search for actual signatures of gravitational radiation exciting laser interferometric de- tectors such as LIGO, VIRGO and GEO600 here on Earth. Binary black holes orbit each other in an ever tightening adiabatic inspiral caused by energy loss due to gravitational radiation emission. As the orbits shrinks, the holes speed up and eventually move at relativistic speeds in the vicinity of each other (separated by ~ 10M or so where 2M is the Schwarzschild radius). As such, one must abandon the Newtonian notion of a point mass on a circular orbit with tangential velocity and replace it with the concept of black holes, cloaked behind spheroidal event horizons that become distorted due to strong gravity, and further appear distorted because of Lorentz effects from the high orbital velocity. Apparent horizons (AHs) are 2-dimensional boundaries that are trapped surfaces. Conceptually, one can think of them as 'quasi-local' definitions for a black hole horizon. This will be explained in more detail in chapter 2. Apparent horizons are especially important in numerical relativity as they provide a computationally efficient way of describing and locating a black hole horizon. For a stationary spacetime, apparent horizons are 2-dimensional cross-sections of the event horizon, which is itself a 3-dimensional null surface in spacetime. Because an AH is a 2-dimensional cross-section of an event horizon, its area remains invariant under distortions due to Lorentz boosts although its shape changes. This fascinating property of the AH can be

  6. Transport of organic contaminants in subsoil horizons and effects of dissolved organic matter related to organic waste recycling practices.

    PubMed

    Chabauty, Florian; Pot, Valérie; Bourdat-Deschamps, Marjolaine; Bernet, Nathalie; Labat, Christophe; Benoit, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Compost amendment on agricultural soil is a current practice to compensate the loss of organic matter. As a consequence, dissolved organic carbon concentration in soil leachates can be increased and potentially modify the transport of other solutes. This study aims to characterize the processes controlling the mobility of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in deep soil layers and their potential impacts on the leaching of organic contaminants (pesticides and pharmaceutical compounds) potentially present in cultivated soils receiving organic waste composts. We sampled undisturbed soil cores in the illuviated horizon (60-90 cm depth) of an Albeluvisol. Percolation experiments were made in presence and absence of DOM with two different pesticides, isoproturon and epoxiconazole, and two pharmaceutical compounds, ibuprofen and sulfamethoxazole. Two types of DOM were extracted from two different soil surface horizons: one sampled in a plot receiving a co-compost of green wastes and sewage sludge applied once every 2 years since 1998 and one sampled in an unamended plot. Results show that DOM behaved as a highly reactive solute, which was continuously generated within the soil columns during flow and increased after flow interruption. DOM significantly increased the mobility of bromide and all pollutants, but the effects differed according the hydrophobic and the ionic character of the molecules. However, no clear effects of the origin of DOM on the mobility of the different contaminants were observed. PMID:26676540

  7. Near-horizon Kerr magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gralla, Samuel E.; Lupsasca, Alexandru; Strominger, Andrew

    2016-05-01

    We exploit the near-horizon conformal symmetry of rapidly spinning black holes to determine universal properties of their magnetospheres. Analytic expressions are derived for the limiting form of the magnetosphere in the near-horizon region. The symmetry is shown to imply that the black hole Meissner effect holds for free Maxwell fields but is generically violated for force-free fields. We further show that in the extremal limit, near-horizon plasma particles are infinitely boosted relative to accretion flow. Active galactic nuclei powered by rapidly spinning black holes are therefore natural sites for high-energy particle collisions.

  8. Perspectives on effectively constraining the location of a massive trans-Plutonian object with the New Horizons spacecraft: a sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iorio, L.

    2013-08-01

    The radio tracking apparatus of the New Horizons spacecraft, currently traveling to the Pluto system where its arrival is scheduled for July 2015, should be able to reach an accuracy of 10 m (range) and 0.1 { mm } { s }^{-1} (range-rate) over distances up to 50 au. This should allow to effectively constrain the location of a putative trans-Plutonian massive object, dubbed Planet X (PX) hereafter, whose existence has recently been postulated for a variety of reasons connected with, e.g., the architecture of the Kuiper belt and the cometary flux from the Oort cloud. Traditional scenarios involve a rock-ice planetoid with m_X≈ 0.7 m_{⊕} at some 100-200 au, or a Jovian body with m_X≲ 5 m_J at about 10,000-20,000 au; as a result of our preliminary sensitivity analysis, they should be detectable by New Horizons since they would impact its range at a km level or so over a time span 6 years long. Conversely, range residuals statistically compatible with zero having an amplitude of 10 m would imply that PX, if it exists, could not be located at less than about 4,500 au (m_X=0.7 m_{⊕}) or 60,000 au (m_X=5 m_J), thus making a direct detection quite demanding with the present-day technologies. As a consequence, it would be appropriate to rename such a remote body as Thelisto. Also fundamental physics would benefit from this analysis since certain subtle effects predicted by MOND for the deep Newtonian regions of our Solar System are just equivalent to those of a distant pointlike mass.

  9. High-frequency over-the-horizon radar and ionospheric backscatter studies in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Le-Wei

    1998-09-01

    China is one of the countries that employs high-frequency over-the-horizon radars for both military and civil applications. The first Chinese high-frequency over-the horizon backscatter radar was developed in the 1970s. This paper briefly introduces the first Chinese over-the-horizon backscatter radar system and reviews ionospheric backscatter and propagation studies in China. The paper discusses the motivation for establishing over-the-horizon radar systems in China, the experimental system, target recognition and detection,and estimation of over-the-horizon radar availability. Observations of aircraft, large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances, and the effects of a remote nuclear explosion are also presented. Finally, the real-time Chinese ionosonde network and frequency predictions using backscatter ionograms are discussed.

  10. Contamination of the O2 soil horizon by zinc smelting and its effect on woodlouse survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beyer, W.N.; Miller, G.W.; Cromartie, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Samples of litter from the 02 horizon of Dekalb soil (loamyskeletal, mixed, mesic Typic Dystrochrept) were collected from 18 ridgetop sites on a transect that ran by two Zn smelters in Palmerton, Pa. Metal concentrations increased by regular gradations from a minimum at a site 105 km west of the smelters (67 mg/kg Zn, 0.85 mg/kg Cd, 150 mg/kg Pb, 11 mg/kg Cu) to a maximum 1.2 km east of the smelters (35,000 mg/kg Zn, 1300 mg/kg Cd, 3200 mg/kg Pb, 280 mg/kg Cu), and then decreased until they reached an eastern minimum at the easternmost site, 19 km from the smelters. An increase in the P concentrations near the smelters showed that the emissions were disrupting nutrient flow through the ecosystem. An increase in the pH near the smelters was attributed to the high concentrations of Zn. The log of the distance of the sites from the smelters was significantly correlated (r = - 0.80, p < 0.05) with the mortality of woodlice (Porcellio scaber Latreille} fed samples of the litter during an 8-week test. There was substantial mortality of woodlice observed even in the 02 litter collected 19 km east of the smelters. Zinc, cadmium, lead, copper, and sulfur were experimentally added, alone or in combination, to 02 litter collected far from any known source of metal emissions. The highest concentration of Zn added (20,000 mg/kg) was toxic enough to account for the mortality observed in the earlier test. A lower concentration of Zn (5000 mg/kg) as well as the concentration of Cd (500 mg/kg) tested also significantly (p < 0.05) increased the mortality of woodlice.

  11. On predicting monitoring system effectiveness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cappello, Carlo; Sigurdardottir, Dorotea; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo

    2015-03-01

    While the objective of structural design is to achieve stability with an appropriate level of reliability, the design of systems for structural health monitoring is performed to identify a configuration that enables acquisition of data with an appropriate level of accuracy in order to understand the performance of a structure or its condition state. However, a rational standardized approach for monitoring system design is not fully available. Hence, when engineers design a monitoring system, their approach is often heuristic with performance evaluation based on experience, rather than on quantitative analysis. In this contribution, we propose a probabilistic model for the estimation of monitoring system effectiveness based on information available in prior condition, i.e. before acquiring empirical data. The presented model is developed considering the analogy between structural design and monitoring system design. We assume that the effectiveness can be evaluated based on the prediction of the posterior variance or covariance matrix of the state parameters, which we assume to be defined in a continuous space. Since the empirical measurements are not available in prior condition, the estimation of the posterior variance or covariance matrix is performed considering the measurements as a stochastic variable. Moreover, the model takes into account the effects of nuisance parameters, which are stochastic parameters that affect the observations but cannot be estimated using monitoring data. Finally, we present an application of the proposed model to a real structure. The results show how the model enables engineers to predict whether a sensor configuration satisfies the required performance.

  12. Gravitational Horizon(3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chao Yuan

    2012-05-01

    Anomalous decelerations of spacecraft Pioneer-10,11,etc could be interpreted as signal delay effect between speed of gravity and that of light as reflected in virtual scale, similar to covarying virtual scale effect in relative motion (http://arxiv.org/html/math-ph/0001019v5).A finite speed of gravity faster than light could be inferred (http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034v2). Measurements of gravitational variations by paraconical pendulum during a total solar eclipse infer the same(http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034v9). A finite Superluminal speed of gravity is the necessary condition to imply that there exists gravitational horizon (GH). Such "GH" of our Universe would stretch far beyond the cosmic event horizon of light. Dark energy may be owing to mutually interactive gravitational horizons of cousin universes. Sufficient condition for the conjecture is that the dark energy would be increasing with age of our Universe since accelerated expansion started about 5 Gyr ago, since more and more arrivals of "GH" of distant cousin universes would interact with "GH" of our Universe. The history of dark energy variations between then and now would be desirable(http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034). In "GH" conjecture, the neighborhood of cousin universes would be likely boundless in 4D-space-time without begining or end. The dark energy would keep all universes in continually accelerated expansion to eventual fragmentation. Fragments would crash and merge into bangs, big or small, to form another generation of cousin universes. These scenarios might offer a clue to what was before the big bang.

  13. Effects of Building a Sand Barrier Berm to Mitigate the Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Louisiana Marshes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lavoie, Dawn; Flocks, James G.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Sallenger, A.H., Jr.; Twichell, David C.

    2010-01-01

    The State of Louisiana requested emergency authorization on May 11, 2010, to perform spill mitigation work on the Chandeleur Islands and on all the barrier islands from Grand Terre Island eastward to Sandy Point to enhance the capability of the islands to reduce the movement of oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the marshes. The proposed action-building a barrier berm (essentially an artificial island fronting the existing barriers and inlets) seaward of the existing barrier islands and inlets-'restores' the protective function of the islands but does not alter the islands themselves. Building a barrier berm to protect the mainland wetlands from oil is a new strategy and depends on the timeliness of construction to be successful. Prioritizing areas to be bermed, focusing on those areas that are most vulnerable and where construction can be completed most rapidly, may increase chances for success. For example, it may be easier and more efficient to berm the narrow inlets of the coastal section to the west of the Mississippi River Delta rather than the large expanses of open water to the east of the delta in the southern parts of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (NWR). This document provides information about the potential available sand resources and effects of berm construction on the existing barrier islands. The proposed project originally involved removing sediment from a linear source approximately 1 mile (1.6 km) gulfward of the barrier islands and placing it just seaward of the islands in shallow water (~2-m depth where possible) to form a continuous berm rising approximately 6 feet (~2 m) above sea level (North American Vertical Datum of 1988-NAVD88) with an ~110-yd (~100-m) width at water level and a slope of 25:1 to the seafloor. Discussions within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with others led to the determination that point-source locations, such as Hewes Point, the St. Bernard Shoals, and Ship Shoal, were more suitable 'borrow

  14. Internet's critical path horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, S.; Solé, R. V.

    2004-03-01

    Internet is known to display a highly heterogeneous structure and complex fluctuations in its traffic dynamics. Congestion seems to be an inevitable result of user's behavior coupled to the network dynamics and it effects should be minimized by choosing appropriate routing strategies. But what are the requirements of routing depth in order to optimize the traffic flow? In this paper we analyse the behavior of Internet traffic with a topologically realistic spatial structure as described in a previous study [S.-H. Yook et al., Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 13382 (2002)]. The model involves self-regulation of packet generation and different levels of routing depth. It is shown that it reproduces the relevant key, statistical features of Internet's traffic. Moreover, we also report the existence of a critical path horizon defining a transition from low-efficient traffic to highly efficient flow. This transition is actually a direct consequence of the web's small world architecture exploited by the routing algorithm. Once routing tables reach the network diameter, the traffic experiences a sudden transition from a low-efficient to a highly-efficient behavior. It is conjectured that routing policies might have spontaneously reached such a compromise in a distributed manner. Internet would thus be operating close to such critical path horizon.

  15. School Effectiveness or the Horizon of the World as a Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Normand, Romuald

    2008-01-01

    The present paper aims to provide an account of the genesis and development of a collection of scientific work that has received strong international recognition--the paradigm of school effectiveness. It shows how this theory, based on the design of measurement tools, has gradually influenced educational management and policies in promoting the…

  16. Ripple Effects: Budgets Grow Modestly, but Energy Costs Cloud the Horizon

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oder, Norman

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author reports the ripple effects of the energy squeeze due to Hurricane Katrina and other factors that sent energy costs skyrocketing. Energy costs are a good part of why budget growth, which has been steady over the past five years, has been slowing down. The projected change from FY2005 to FY2006 is only 3.3%, compared to…

  17. Resolving Lifshitz Horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Sarah; Kachru, Shamit; Wang, Huajia; /Stanford U., ITP /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SLAC

    2012-04-24

    Via the AdS/CFT correspondence, ground states of field theories at finite charge density are mapped to extremal black brane solutions. Studies of simple gravity + matter systems in this context have uncovered wide new classes of extremal geometries. The Lifshitz metrics characterizing field theories with non-trivial dynamical critical exponent z {ne} 1 emerge as one common endpoint in doped holographic toy models. However, the Lifshitz horizon exhibits mildly singular behaviour - while curvature invariants are finite, there are diverging tidal forces. Here we show that in some of the simplest contexts where Lifshitz metrics emerge, Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theories, generic corrections lead to a replacement of the Lifshitz metric, in the deep infrared, by a re-emergent AdS{sub 2} x R{sup 2} geometry. Thus, at least in these cases, the Lifshitz scaling characterizes the physics over a wide range of energy scales, but the mild singularity is cured by quantum or stringy effects.

  18. Telescopic horizon scanning.

    PubMed

    Koenderink, Jan

    2014-12-20

    The problem of "distortionless" viewing with terrestrial telescopic systems (mainly "binoculars") remains problematic. The so called "globe effect" is only partially counteracted in modern designs. Theories addressing the phenomenon have never reached definitive closure. In this paper, we show that exact distortionless viewing with terrestrial telescopic systems is not possible in general, but that it is in principle possible in-very frequent in battle field and marine applications-the case of horizon scanning. However, this involves cylindrical optical elements. For opto-electronic systems, a full solution is more readily feasible. The solution involves a novel interpretation of the relevant constraints and objectives. For final design decisions, it is not necessary to rely on a corpus of psychophysical (or ergonomic) data, although one has to decide whether the instrument is intended as an extension of the eye or as a "pictorial" device. PMID:25608206

  19. The 2010 Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Levine, A.; Smith, R.; Stone, S.

    2010-01-01

    The annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a qualitative research project established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative inquiry on college and university campuses within the next five years. The…

  20. Semiclassical ultraextremal horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Matyjasek, Jerzy; Zaslavskii, O.B.

    2005-04-15

    We examine backreaction of quantum massive fields on multiply-degenerate (ultraextremal) horizons. It is shown that, under influence of the quantum backreaction, the horizon of such a kind moves to a new position near which the metric does not change its asymptotics, so the ultraextremal black holes and cosmological spacetimes do exist as self-consistent solutions of the semiclassical field equations.

  1. The 2011 Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Smith, R.; Willis, H.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2011-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This volume, the "2011 Horizon…

  2. Two Horizons of Fusion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lo, Mun Ling; Chik, Pakey Pui Man

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we aim to differentiate the internal and external horizons of "fusion." "Fusion" in the internal horizon relates to the structure and meaning of the object of learning as experienced by the learner. It clarifies the interrelationships among an object's critical features and aspects. It also illuminates the…

  3. Fuzziness at the horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batic, Davide; Nicolini, Piero

    2010-08-01

    We study the stability of the noncommutative Schwarzschild black hole interior by analysing the propagation of a massless scalar field between the two horizons. We show that the spacetime fuzziness triggered by the field higher momenta can cure the classical exponential blue-shift divergence, suppressing the emergence of infinite energy density in a region nearby the Cauchy horizon.

  4. Potential immunotoxicological health effects following exposure to COREXIT 9500A during cleanup of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Stacey E; Franko, Jennifer; Lukomska, Ewa; Meade, B J

    2011-01-01

    Workers involved in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill cleanup efforts reported acute pulmonary and dermatological adverse health effects. These studies were undertaken to assess the immunotoxicity of COREXIT 9500A, the primary dispersant used in cleanup efforts, as a potential causative agent. COREXIT 9500A and one of its active ingredients, dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (DSS), were evaluated using murine models for hypersensitivity and immune suppression, including the local lymph node assay (LLNA), phenotypic analysis of draining lymph node cells (DLN), mouse ear swelling test (MEST), total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE), and the plaque-forming cell (PFC) assay. Dermal exposure to COREXIT 9500A and DSS induced dose-responsive increases in dermal irritation and lymphocyte proliferation. The EC3 values for COREXIT 9500A and DSS were 0.4% and 3.9%, respectively, resulting in a classification of COREXIT 9500A as a potent sensitizer and DSS as a moderate sensitizer. A T-cell-mediated mechanism underlying the LLNA was supported by positive responses in the MEST assay for COREXIT and DSS, indicated by a significant increase in ear swelling 48 h post challenge. There were no marked alterations in total serum IgE or B220+/IgE+ lymph-node cell populations following exposure to COREXIT 9500A. Significant elevations in interferon (IFN)-γ but not interleukin (IL)-4 protein were also observed in stimulated lymph node cells. The absence of increases in IgE and IL-4 in the presence of enhanced lymphocyte proliferation, positive MEST responses, and elevations in IFN-γ suggest a T-cell-mediated mechanism. COREXIT 9500A did not induce immunosuppression in the murine model. PMID:21916747

  5. The Effectiveness of Various Attitude Indicator Display Sizes and Extended Horizon Lines on Attitude Maintenance in a Part-Task Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comstock, J. Raymond, Jr.; Jones, Leslie C.; Pope, Alan T.

    2003-01-01

    Spatial disorientation (SD) is a constant contributing factor to the rate of fatal aviation accidents. SD occurs as a result of perceptual errors that can be attributed in part to the inefficient presentation of synthetic orientation cues via the attitude indicator when external visual conditions are poor. Improvements in the design of the attitude indicator may help to eliminate instrumentation as a factor in the onset of SD. The goal of the present study was to explore several display concepts that may contribute to an improved attitude display. Specifically, the effectiveness of various display sizes, some that are used in current and some that are anticipated in future attitude displays that may incorporate Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) concepts, was assessed. In addition, a concept known as an extended horizon line or Malcolm Horizon (MH) was applied and evaluated. Paired with the MH, the novel concept of a fixed reference line representing the central horizontal plane of the aircraft was also tested. Subjects performance on an attitude control task and secondary math workload task was measured across the various display sizes and conditions. The results, with regard to display size, confirmed the bigger is better concept, yielding better performance with the larger display sizes. A clear and significant improvement in attitude task performance was found with the addition of the extended horizon line. The extended or MH seemed to equalize attitude performance across display sizes, even for a central or foveal display as small as three inches in width.

  6. New Horizons at Pluto

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, Paul; Nimmo, Francis

    2016-06-01

    The New Horizons mission has revealed Pluto and its moon Charon to be geologically active worlds. The familiar, yet exotic, landforms suggest that geologic processes operate similarly across the Solar System, even in its cold outer reaches.

  7. Infrared horizon locator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jalink, A., Jr. (Inventor)

    1973-01-01

    A precise method and apparatus for locating the earth's infrared horizon from space that is independent of season and latitude is described. First and second integrations of the earth's radiance profile are made from space to earth with the second delayed with respect to the first. The second integration is multiplied by a predetermined constant R and then compared with the first integration. When the two are equal the horizon is located.

  8. New Horizons Launch Contingency Effort

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yale; Lear, Matthew H.; McGrath, Brian E.; Heyler, Gene A.; Takashima, Naruhisa; Owings, W. Donald

    2007-01-01

    On 19 January 2006 at 2:00 PM EST, the NASA New Horizons spacecraft (SC) was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), FL, onboard an Atlas V 551/Centaur/STAR™ 48B launch vehicle (LV) on a mission to explore the Pluto Charon planetary system and possibly other Kuiper Belt Objects. It carried a single Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG). As part of the joint NASA/US Department of Energy (DOE) safety effort, contingency plans were prepared to address the unlikely events of launch accidents leading to a near-pad impact, a suborbital reentry, an orbital reentry, or a heliocentric orbit. As the implementing organization. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) had expanded roles in the New Horizons launch contingency effort over those for the Cassini mission and Mars Exploration Rovers missions. The expanded tasks included participation in the Radiological Control Center (RADCC) at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), preparation of contingency plans, coordination of space tracking assets, improved aerodynamics characterization of the RTG's 18 General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules, and development of spacecraft and RTG reentry breakup analysis tools. Other JHU/APL tasks were prediction of the Earth impact footprints (ElFs) for the GPHS modules released during the atmospheric reentry (for purposes of notification and recovery), prediction of the time of SC reentry from a potential orbital decay, pre-launch dissemination of ballistic coefficients of various possible reentry configurations, and launch support of an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on the JHU/APL campus. For the New Horizons launch, JHU/APL personnel at the RADCC and at the EOC were ready to implement any real-time launch contingency activities. A successful New Horizons launch and interplanetary injection precluded any further contingency actions. The New Horizons launch contingency was an interagency effort by several organizations. This paper

  9. Acute effects of non-weathered and weathered crude oil and dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident on the development of marine bivalve and echinoderm larvae.

    PubMed

    Stefansson, Emily S; Langdon, Chris J; Pargee, Suzanne M; Blunt, Susanna M; Gage, Susan J; Stubblefield, William A

    2016-08-01

    Acute toxicity tests (48-96-h duration) were conducted with larvae of 2 echinoderm species (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus and Dendraster excentricus) and 4 bivalve mollusk species (Crassostrea virginica, Crassostrea gigas, Mytilus galloprovincialis, and Mercenaria mercenaria). Developing larvae were exposed to water-accommodated fractions (WAFs) and chemically enhanced water-accommodated fractions (CEWAFs) of fresh and weathered oils collected from the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon incident. The WAFs (oils alone), CEWAFs (oils plus Corexit 9500A dispersant), and WAFs of Corexit alone were prepared using low-energy mixing. The WAFs of weathered oils had no effect on survival and development of echinoderm and bivalve larvae, whereas WAFs of fresh oils showed adverse effects on larval development. Similar toxicities were observed for weathered oil CEWAFs and WAFs prepared with Corexit alone for oyster (C. gigas and C. virginica) larvae, which were the most sensitive of the tested invertebrate species to Corexit. Mean 10% effective concentration values for total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (a marker for Corexit) in the present study were higher than all concentrations reported in nearshore field samples collected during and after the Deepwater Horizon incident. The results suggest that water-soluble fractions of weathered oils and Corexit dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident had limited, if any, acute impacts on nearshore larvae of eastern oysters and clams, as well as other organisms with similar sensitivities to those of test species in the present study; however, exposure to sediments and long-term effects were not evaluated. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2016-2028. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26749266

  10. Metabolic Network Prediction of Drug Side Effects.

    PubMed

    Shaked, Itay; Oberhardt, Matthew A; Atias, Nir; Sharan, Roded; Ruppin, Eytan

    2016-03-23

    Drug side effects levy a massive cost on society through drug failures, morbidity, and mortality cases every year, and their early detection is critically important. Here, we describe the array of model-based phenotype predictors (AMPP), an approach that leverages medical informatics resources and a human genome-scale metabolic model (GSMM) to predict drug side effects. AMPP is substantially predictive (AUC > 0.7) for >70 drug side effects, including very serious ones such as interstitial nephritis and extrapyramidal disorders. We evaluate AMPP's predictive signal through cross-validation, comparison across multiple versions of a side effects database, and co-occurrence analysis of drug side effect associations in scientific abstracts (hypergeometric p value = 2.2e-40). AMPP outperforms a previous biochemical structure-based method in predicting metabolically based side effects (aggregate AUC = 0.65 versus 0.59). Importantly, AMPP enables the identification of key metabolic reactions and biomarkers that are predictive of specific side effects. Taken together, this work lays a foundation for future detection of metabolically grounded side effects during early stages of drug development. PMID:27135366

  11. Firewall or smooth horizon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ori, Amos

    2016-01-01

    Almheiri, Marolf, Polchinski, and Sully pointed out that for a sufficiently old black hole (BH), the set of assumptions known as the complementarity postulates appears to be inconsistent with the assumption of local regularity at the horizon. They concluded that the horizon of an old BH is likely to be the locus of local irregularity, a "firewall". Here I point out that if one adopts a different assumption, namely that semiclassical physics holds throughout its anticipated domain of validity, then the inconsistency is avoided, and the horizon retains its regularity. In this alternative view-point, the vast portion of the original BH information remains trapped inside the BH throughout the semiclassical domain of evaporation, and possibly leaks out later on. This appears to be an inevitable outcome of semiclassical gravity (if assumed to apply throughout its anticipated domain of validity).

  12. Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

    2008-01-01

    This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

  13. Instability of enclosed horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kay, Bernard S.

    2015-03-01

    We point out that there are solutions to the scalar wave equation on dimensional Minkowski space with finite energy tails which, if they reflect off a uniformly accelerated mirror due to (say) Dirichlet boundary conditions on it, develop an infinite stress-energy tensor on the mirror's Rindler horizon. We also show that, in the presence of an image mirror in the opposite Rindler wedge, suitable compactly supported arbitrarily small initial data on a suitable initial surface will develop an arbitrarily large stress-energy scalar near where the two horizons cross. Also, while there is a regular Hartle-Hawking-Israel-like state for the quantum theory between these two mirrors, there are coherent states built on it for which there are similar singularities in the expectation value of the renormalized stress-energy tensor. We conjecture that in other situations with analogous enclosed horizons such as a (maximally extended) Schwarzschild black hole in equilibrium in a (stationary spherical) box or the (maximally extended) Schwarzschild-AdS spacetime, there will be similar stress-energy singularities and almost-singularities—leading to instability of the horizons when gravity is switched on and matter and gravity perturbations are allowed for. All this suggests it is incorrect to picture a black hole in equilibrium in a box or a Schwarzschild-AdS black hole as extending beyond the past and future horizons of a single Schwarzschild (/Schwarzschild-AdS) wedge. It would thus provide new evidence for 't Hooft's brick wall model while seeming to invalidate the picture in Maldacena's ` Eternal black holes in AdS'. It would thereby also support the validity of the author's matter-gravity entanglement hypothesis and of the paper ` Brick walls and AdS/CFT' by the author and Ortíz.

  14. Predictions and the Limiting Effects of Prequestions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanahan, Timothy

    A study examined the effects of teacher questioning and student prediction (purpose-setting procedures) upon the reading comprehension of 188 students in grades 3 through 6. Thirty-two constructed-answer questions were developed for use with an article about kangaroos, written in an expository style and approximately 900 words in length. Half of…

  15. Spacetimes containing slowly evolving horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Kavanagh, William; Booth, Ivan

    2006-08-15

    Slowly evolving horizons are trapping horizons that are ''almost'' isolated horizons. This paper reviews their definition and discusses several spacetimes containing such structures. These include certain Vaidya and Tolman-Bondi solutions as well as (perturbatively) tidally distorted black holes. Taking into account the mass scales and orders of magnitude that arise in these calculations, we conjecture that slowly evolving horizons are the norm rather than the exception in astrophysical processes that involve stellar-scale black holes.

  16. Effect of O horizon and Forest Harvest Residue Manipulations on Soil Organic Matter Content and Composition of a Loblolly Pine Plantation in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatten, J.; Mack, J.; Dewey, J.; Sucre, E.; Leggett, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Forest harvest residues and forest floor materials are significant sources of mineral soil organic matter and nutrients for regenerating and establishing forests. Harvest residues in particular are occasionally removed, piled, or burned following harvesting. While the forest floor is never purposely removed during operational harvesting and site preparation, they could become in high demand as bioenergy markets develop. Weyerhaeuser Company established an experimental study to evaluate the effect of forest-floor manipulation on site productivity and soil carbon. This study was installed in a loblolly pine plantation near Millport, Alabama, USA on the Upper Gulf Coastal Plain to test both extremes from complete removal of harvest residues and forest floor to doubling of these materials. This study has been continuously monitored since its establishment in 1994. We have examined the effects of varying forest floor levels on the biomass, soil carbon content, and soil carbon composition in the context of these management activities. Above- and below-ground productivity, soil moisture, soil temperature, and nutrient dynamics have been related to soil organic carbon in mineral soil size/density fractionation and lignin and cutin biomarkers from the cupric oxide (CuO) oxidation technique. We have found that while removing litter and harvest residues has little effect on biomass production and soil carbon, importing litter and harvest residues increases forest productivity and soil carbon content. Interestingly, increased carbon was observed in all depths assessed (O horizon, 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60cm) suggesting that this practice may sequester organic carbon in deep soil horizons. Our biomarker analysis indicated that importing litter and harvest residues increased relative contributions from above ground sources at the 20-40cm depth and increased relative contributions from belowground sources at the 40-60cm depth. These results suggest that organic matter manipulations

  17. D region predictions. [effects on radio propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thrane, E. V.; Chakrabarty, D. K.; Deshpande, S. D.; Doherty, R. H.; Gregory, J. B.; Hargreaves, J. K.; Lastovicka, J.; Morris, P.; Piggott, W. R.; Reagan, J. B.

    1979-01-01

    Present knowledge of D region phenomena is briefly reviewed and the status of current methods of predicting their effects on radio propagation considered. The ELF, VLF and LF navigational and timing systems depend on the stability of the lower part of the D layer where these waves are reflected, whereas MF and HF waves are absorbed as they penetrate the region, in most cases mainly in the upper part of the layer. Possible methods of improving predictions, warnings, and real time operations are considered with particular stress on those which can be implemented in the near future.

  18. Topological deformation of isolated horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Liko, Tomas

    2008-03-15

    We show that the Gauss-Bonnet term can have physical effects in four dimensions. Specifically, the entropy of a black hole acquires a correction term that is proportional to the Euler characteristic of the cross sections of the horizon. While this term is constant for a single black hole, it will be a nontrivial function for a system with dynamical topologies such as black-hole mergers: it is shown that for certain values of the Gauss-Bonnet parameter, the second law of black-hole mechanics can be violated.

  19. Estimating the effect of tree uprooting on variation of soil horizon depth by confronting pedogenetic simulations to measurements in a Belgian loess area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finke, P. A.; Vanwalleghem, T.; Opolot, E.; Poesen, J.; Deckers, J.

    2013-12-01

    patterns of soil often do not reflect those of topographic controls. We attempted to identify possible causes of this by comparing observed and simulated soil horizon depths. Observed depths of E, Bt, BC, C1, and C2 horizons in loess-derived soils in Belgium showed a weak to absent relation to terrain attributes in a sloping area. We applied the soil genesis model SoilGen2.16 onto 108 1 × 1 m2 locations in a 1329 ha area to find possible causes. Two scenarios were simulated. Model 1 simulated soil development under undisturbed conditions, taking slope, aspect, and loess thickness as the only sources of variations. Model 2 additionally included a stochastic submodel to generate tree-uprooting events based on the exposure of trees to the wind. Outputs of both models were converted to depths of transitions between horizons, using an algorithm calibrated to horizon depths observed in the field. Model 1 showed strong correlations between terrain attributes and depths for all horizons, although surprisingly, regression kriging was not able to model all variations. Model 2 showed a weak to absent correlation for the upper horizons but still a strong correlation for the deeper horizons BC, C1, and C2. For the upper horizons the spatial variation strongly resembled that of the measurements. This is a strong indication that bioturbation in the course of soil formation due to treefalls influences spatial patterns of horizon depths.

  20. Refraction near the horizon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.; Liller, William

    1990-01-01

    Variations in astronomical refraction near the horizon are examined. Sunset timings, a sextant mounted on a tripod, and a temperature profile are utilized to derive the variations in refraction data, collected from 7 locations. It is determined that the refraction ranges from 0.234 to 1.678 deg with an rms deviation of 0.16, and it is observed that the variation is larger than previously supposed. Some applications for the variation of refraction value are discussed.

  1. LANDSAT-4 horizon scanner performance evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanow, S.; Chen, L. C.; Davis, W. M.; Stanley, J. P.

    1984-01-01

    Representative data spans covering a little more than a year since the LANDSAT-4 launch were analyzed to evaluate the flight performance of the satellite's horizon scanner. High frequency noise was filtered out by 128-point averaging. The effects of Earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and residual systematic errors are analyzed. A model for the predicted radiance effects is compared with the flight data and deficiencies in the radiance effects modeling are noted. Correction coefficients are provided for a finite Fourier series representation of the systematic errors in the data. Analysis of the seasonal dependence of the coefficients indicates the effects of some early mission problems with the reference attitudes which were computed by the onboard computer using star trackers and gyro data. The effects of sun and moon interference, unexplained anomalies in the data, and sensor noise characteristics and their power spectrum are described. The variability of full orbit data averages is shown. Plots of the sensor data for all the available data spans are included.

  2. Smooth horizons and quantum ripples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golovnev, Alexey

    2015-05-01

    Black holes are unique objects which allow for meaningful theoretical studies of strong gravity and even quantum gravity effects. An infalling and a distant observer would have very different views on the structure of the world. However, a careful analysis has shown that it entails no genuine contradictions for physics, and the paradigm of observer complementarity has been coined. Recently this picture was put into doubt. In particular, it was argued that in old black holes a firewall must form in order to protect the basic principles of quantum mechanics. This AMPS paradox has already been discussed in a vast number of papers with different attitudes and conclusions. Here we want to argue that a possible source of confusion is the neglect of quantum gravity effects. Contrary to widespread perception, it does not necessarily mean that effective field theory is inapplicable in rather smooth neighbourhoods of large black hole horizons. The real offender might be an attempt to consistently use it over the huge distances from the near-horizon zone of old black holes to the early radiation. We give simple estimates to support this viewpoint and show how the Page time and (somewhat more speculative) scrambling time do appear.

  3. Killing horizons around a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle

    SciTech Connect

    Farhoosh, H.; Zimmerman, R.L.

    1980-08-15

    The structure of the Killing horizon surrounding a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle which is emitting gravitational radiation is investigated. When expressed in terms of a coordinate system which is rigidly fixed to the particle undergoing uniform acceleration, the two inner horizons and ergoregion are similar to the horizons and ergoregion in the Kerr solution. These compact surfaces are distorted by the acceleration, being elongated in the forward direction and contracted in the backward direction. In addition to the two horizons that are similar to the Kerr solution, there is an additional noncompact horizon and an additional ergoregion which are caused by the acceleration. In general, the two ergoregions are disjoint, but as the acceleration parameter is sufficiently increased these ergoregions coalesce. A further increase of the acceleration will cause the two outer horizons to become degenerate and the ergoregion to vanish. An increase in the rotation parameter causes effects similar to those in the Kerr metric.

  4. Killing horizons around a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farhoosh, Hamid; Zimmerman, Robert L.

    1980-08-01

    The structure of the Killing horizon surrounding a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle which is emitting gravitational radiation is investigated. When expressed in terms of a coordinate system which is rigidly fixed to the particle undergoing uniform acceleration, the two inner horizons and ergoregion are similar to the horizons and ergoregion in the Kerr solution. These compact surfaces are distorted by the acceleration, being elongated in the forward direction and contracted in the backward direction. In addition to the two horizons that are similar to the Kerr solution, there is an additional noncompact horizon and an additional ergoregion which are caused by the acceleration. In general, the two ergoregions are disjoint, but as the acceleration parameter is sufficiently increased these ergoregions coalesce. A further increase of the acceleration will cause the two outer horizons to become degenerate and the ergoregion to vanish. An increase in the rotation parameter causes effects similar to those in the Kerr metric.

  5. New Horizons at Pluto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Artist's concept of the New Horizons spacecraft as it approaches Pluto and its largest moon, Charon, in July 2015. The craft's miniature cameras, radio science experiment, ultraviolet and infrared spectrometers and space plasma experiments will characterize the global geology and geomorphology of Pluto and Charon, map their surface compositions and temperatures, and examine Pluto's atmosphere in detail. The spacecraft's most prominent design feature is a nearly 7-foot (2.1-meter) dish antenna, through which it will communicate with Earth from as far as 4.7 billion miles (7.5 billion kilometers) away.

  6. Effect of Rainfall Aggregation on Hydrologic Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, H.; Brandes, E.

    2003-12-01

    Remotely sensed soil moisture data are becoming increasingly available, however the variability within the remotely sensed footprint is spatially averaged. The representation of spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture is essential for modeling processes that are nonlinearly related to soil moisture, such as the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. A number of studies have suggested that the spatial variability of soil moisture varies with wetness. At different locations, scales, and wetting and drying conditions, soil moisture patterns have been linked to topography, soil characteristics such as porosity and wilting point, and rainfall distribution. The objective of the proposed study is to examine the effects of rainfall temporal and spatial aggregation on spatial variability of soil moisture and runoff predictions on a 1000-km2 watershed. High-resolution radar-estimated rainfall from the IHOP2002 experiment will be used. These rain fields are aggregated in space and time. The hydrologic response of a distributed hydrologic model to the aggregated rain fields will be statistically compared with the response of the model to the original rainfall fields to quantify the impact of the spatial and temporal aggregation on hydrologic predictions. The proposed procedure will combine information from these simulations to determine what adjustments need to be made to the predicted fluxes.

  7. Horizon thermodynamics and spacetime mappings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faraoni, Valerio; Vitagliano, Vincenzo

    2014-03-01

    When black holes are dynamical, event horizons are replaced by apparent and trapping horizons. Conformal and Kerr-Schild transformations are widely used in relation to dynamical black holes, and we study the behavior under such transformations of quantities related to the thermodynamics of these horizons, such as the Misner-Sharp-Hernandez mass (internal energy), the Kodama vector, surface gravity, and temperature. The transformation properties are not those expected on the basis of naive arguments.

  8. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL NO.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-07-01

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade Horizon Sensor (HS) systems continued this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (ExxonMobil), Mountain Coal Company West Elk Mine (Arch), and Ohio Valley Coal Company (OVC). Monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  9. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL NO.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-07-30

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining (CM) machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade Horizon Sensor (HS) systems has been ongoing this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (ExxonMobil), Mountain Coal Company West Elk Mine (Arch), Deserado Mining Company (Blue Mountain Energy), and The Ohio Valley Coal Company (TOVCC). Monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  10. Transverse deformations of extreme horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Carmen; Lucietti, James

    2016-04-01

    We consider the inverse problem of determining all extreme black hole solutions to the Einstein equations with a prescribed near-horizon geometry. We investigate this problem by considering infinitesimal deformations of the near-horizon geometry along transverse null geodesics. We show that, up to a gauge transformation, the linearised Einstein equations reduce to an elliptic PDE for the extrinsic curvature of a cross-section of the horizon. We deduce that for a given near-horizon geometry there exists a finite dimensional moduli space of infinitesimal transverse deformations. We then establish a uniqueness theorem for transverse deformations of the extreme Kerr horizon. In particular, we prove that the only smooth axisymmetric transverse deformation of the near-horizon geometry of extreme Kerr, such that cross-sections of the horizon are marginally trapped surfaces, corresponds to that of the extreme Kerr black hole. Furthermore, we determine all smooth and biaxisymmetric transverse deformations of the near-horizon geometry of the five-dimensional extreme Myers-Perry black hole with equal angular momenta. We find a three parameter family of solutions such that cross-sections of the horizon are marginally trapped, which is more general than the known black hole solutions. We discuss the possibility that they correspond to new five-dimensional vacuum black holes.

  11. Predicting the synergy of multiple stress effects.

    PubMed

    Liess, Matthias; Foit, Kaarina; Knillmann, Saskia; Schäfer, Ralf B; Liess, Hans-Dieter

    2016-01-01

    Toxicants and other, non-chemical environmental stressors contribute to the global biodiversity crisis. Examples include the loss of bees and the reduction of aquatic biodiversity. Although non-compliance with regulations might be contributing, the widespread existence of these impacts suggests that for example the current approach of pesticide risk assessment fails to protect biodiversity when multiple stressors concurrently affect organisms. To quantify such multiple stress effects, we analysed all applicable aquatic studies and found that the presence of environmental stressors increases individual sensitivity to toxicants (pesticides, trace metals) by a factor of up to 100. To predict this dependence, we developed the "Stress Addition Model" (SAM). With the SAM, we assume that each individual has a general stress capacity towards all types of specific stress that should not be exhausted. Experimental stress levels are transferred into general stress levels of the SAM using the stress-related mortality as a common link. These general stress levels of independent stressors are additive, with the sum determining the total stress exerted on a population. With this approach, we provide a tool that quantitatively predicts the highly synergistic direct effects of independent stressor combinations. PMID:27609131

  12. Predicting the synergy of multiple stress effects

    PubMed Central

    Liess, Matthias; Foit, Kaarina; Knillmann, Saskia; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Liess, Hans-Dieter

    2016-01-01

    Toxicants and other, non-chemical environmental stressors contribute to the global biodiversity crisis. Examples include the loss of bees and the reduction of aquatic biodiversity. Although non-compliance with regulations might be contributing, the widespread existence of these impacts suggests that for example the current approach of pesticide risk assessment fails to protect biodiversity when multiple stressors concurrently affect organisms. To quantify such multiple stress effects, we analysed all applicable aquatic studies and found that the presence of environmental stressors increases individual sensitivity to toxicants (pesticides, trace metals) by a factor of up to 100. To predict this dependence, we developed the “Stress Addition Model” (SAM). With the SAM, we assume that each individual has a general stress capacity towards all types of specific stress that should not be exhausted. Experimental stress levels are transferred into general stress levels of the SAM using the stress-related mortality as a common link. These general stress levels of independent stressors are additive, with the sum determining the total stress exerted on a population. With this approach, we provide a tool that quantitatively predicts the highly synergistic direct effects of independent stressor combinations. PMID:27609131

  13. Technologies on the Horizon: Teachers Respond to the Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodges, Charles B.; Prater, Alyssa H.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate teachers' beliefs regarding the integration of technologies from the 2011 K-12 edition of the "Horizon Report" into their local, public school contexts. Teachers read the "Horizon Report" and then participated in an asynchronous, threaded discussion focusing on technologies they…

  14. Effect of Dissemination of 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid (2,4-D) Degradation Plasmids on 2,4-D Degradation and on Bacterial Community Structure in Two Different Soil Horizons

    PubMed Central

    Dejonghe, Winnie; Goris, Johan; El Fantroussi, Saïd; Höfte, Monica; De Vos, Paul; Verstraete, Willy; Top, Eva M.

    2000-01-01

    Transfer of the 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) degradation plasmids pEMT1 and pJP4 from an introduced donor strain, Pseudomonas putida UWC3, to the indigenous bacteria of two different horizons (A horizon, depth of 0 to 30 cm; B horizon, depth of 30 to 60 cm) of a 2,4-D-contaminated soil was investigated as a means of bioaugmentation. When the soil was amended with nutrients, plasmid transfer and enhanced degradation of 2,4-D were observed. These findings were most striking in the B horizon, where the indigenous bacteria were unable to degrade any of the 2,4-D (100 mg/kg of soil) during at least 22 days but where inoculation with either of the two plasmid donors resulted in complete 2,4-D degradation within 14 days. In contrast, in soils not amended with nutrients, inoculation of donors in the A horizon and subsequent formation of transconjugants (105 CFU/g of soil) could not increase the 2,4-D degradation rate compared to that of the noninoculated soil. However, donor inoculation in the nonamended B-horizon soil resulted in complete degradation of 2,4-D within 19 days, while no degradation at all was observed in noninoculated soil during 89 days. With plasmid pEMT1, this enhanced degradation seemed to be due only to transconjugants (105 CFU/g of soil), since the donor was already undetectable when degradation started. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of 16S rRNA genes showed that inoculation of the donors was followed by a shift in the microbial community structure of the nonamended B-horizon soils. The new 16S rRNA gene fragments in the DGGE profile corresponded with the 16S rRNA genes of 2,4-D-degrading transconjugant colonies isolated on agar plates. This result indicates that the observed change in the community was due to proliferation of transconjugants formed in soil. Overall, this work clearly demonstrates that bioaugmentation can constitute an effective strategy for cleanup of soils which are poor in nutrients and microbial activity

  15. Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hitney, Herbert V.

    1989-09-01

    In recent years, electromagnetic tactical decision aids were developed to assess environmental effects on the performance of operational systems such as shipboard radars. In general, these systems have performed well and are now routinely used by operational forces to optimize their use of sensors and deployment of forces. In many cases, the existing tactical decision aid software was taken and used to assess the performance of proposed new sensors. Since the original software was not designed for this purpose, many deficiencies in such a use were soon identified. For example, most engineers prefer to graphically compare performance results as a single design parameter, such as radar pulse length, is varied over a range of possible values. Also, in designing a new system, one is usually more interested in the long-term statistical performance than in single-event performance that the tactical decision aids are normally designed to assess. The Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS) is a recent development effort tailored to engineering uses and based on the propagation models of the Integrated Refractive Effects Prediction System (IREPS). EREPS is hosted on IBM PC computers for maximum availability to the engineering community, and was developed using interactive graphics displays for optimum comparison studies. The models are designed in such a way as to give results within a few seconds to allow multiple design trade-off studies to be easily performed. EREPS Revision 1.00 was distributed to interested users in the summer of 1988 and is currently being revised for a summer 1989 distribution. Existing and planned capabilities will be presented along with some examples of applications.

  16. The New Horizons Spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fountain, Glen H.; Kusnierkiewicz, David Y.; Hersman, Christopher B.; Herder, Timothy S.; Coughlin, Thomas B.; Gibson, William C.; Clancy, Deborah A.; Deboy, Christopher C.; Hill, T. Adrian; Kinnison, James D.; Mehoke, Douglas S.; Ottman, Geffrey K.; Rogers, Gabe D.; Stern, S. Alan; Stratton, James M.; Vernon, Steven R.; Williams, Stephen P.

    2008-10-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft was launched on 19 January 2006. The spacecraft was designed to provide a platform for seven instruments designated by the science team to collect and return data from Pluto in 2015. The design meets the requirements established by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Announcement of Opportunity AO-OSS-01. The design drew on heritage from previous missions developed at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) and other missions such as Ulysses. The trajectory design imposed constraints on mass and structural strength to meet the high launch acceleration consistent with meeting the AO requirement of returning data prior to the year 2020. The spacecraft subsystems were designed to meet tight resource allocations (mass and power) yet provide the necessary control and data handling finesse to support data collection and return when the one-way light time during the Pluto fly-by is 4.5 hours. Missions to the outer regions of the solar system (where the solar irradiance is 1/1000 of the level near the Earth) require a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) to supply electrical power. One RTG was available for use by New Horizons. To accommodate this constraint, the spacecraft electronics were designed to operate on approximately 200 W. The travel time to Pluto put additional demands on system reliability. Only after a flight time of approximately 10 years would the desired data be collected and returned to Earth. This represents the longest flight duration prior to the return of primary science data for any mission by NASA. The spacecraft system architecture provides sufficient redundancy to meet this requirement with a probability of mission success of greater than 0.85. The spacecraft is now on its way to Pluto, with an arrival date of 14 July 2015. Initial in-flight tests have verified that the spacecraft will meet the design requirements.

  17. Apparent horizons in binary black hole spacetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shoemaker, Deirdre Marie

    Over the last decade, advances in computing technology and numerical techniques have lead to the possible theoretical prediction of astrophysically relevant waveforms in numerical simulations. With the building of gravitational wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometric Gravitational-Wave Observatory, we stand at the epoch that will usher in the first experimental study of strong field general relativity. One candidate source for ground based detection of gravitational waveforms, the orbit and merger of two black holes, is of great interest to the relativity community. The binary black hole problem is the two-body problem in general relativity. It is a stringent dynamical test of the theory. The problem involves the evolution of the Einstein equation, a complex system of non-linear, dynamic, elliptic-hyperbolic equations intractable in closed form. Numerical relativists are now developing the technology to evolve the Einstein equation using numerical simulations. The generation of these numerical I codes is a ``theoretical laboratory'' designed to study strong field phenomena in general relativity. This dissertation reports the successful development and application of the first multiple apparent horizon tracker applied to the generic binary black hole problem. I have developed a method that combines a level set of surfaces with a curvature flow method. This method, which I call the level flow method, locates the surfaces of any apparent horizons in the spacetime. The surface location then is used to remove the singularities from the computational domain in the evolution code. I establish the following set of criteria desired in an apparent horizon tracker: (1)The robustness of the tracker due to its lack of dependence on small changes to the initial guess; (2)The generality of the tracker in its applicability to generic spacetimes including multiple back hole spacetimes; and (3)The efficiency of the tracker algorithm in CPU time. I demonstrate the apparent

  18. The effects of weathering and chemical dispersion on Deepwater Horizon crude oil toxicity to mahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) early life stages.

    PubMed

    Esbaugh, Andrew J; Mager, Edward M; Stieglitz, John D; Hoenig, Ronald; Brown, Tanya L; French, Barbara L; Linbo, Tiffany L; Lay, Claire; Forth, Heather; Scholz, Nathaniel L; Incardona, John P; Morris, Jeffrey M; Benetti, Daniel D; Grosell, Martin

    2016-02-01

    To better understand the impact of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) incident on commercially and ecologically important pelagic fish species, a mahi-mahi spawning program was developed to assess the effect of embryonic exposure to DWH crude oil with particular emphasis on the effects of weathering and dispersant on the magnitude of toxicity. Acute lethality (96 h LC50) ranged from 45.8 (28.4-63.1) μg l(-1) ΣPAH for wellhead (source) oil to 8.8 (7.4-10.3) μg l(-1) ΣPAH for samples collected from the surface slick, reinforcing previous work that weathered oil is more toxic on a ΣPAH basis. Differences in toxicity appear related to the amount of dissolved 3 ringed PAHs. The dispersant Corexit 9500 did not influence acute lethality of oil preparations. Embryonic oil exposure resulted in cardiotoxicity after 48 h, as evident from pericardial edema and reduced atrial contractility. Whereas pericardial edema appeared to correlate well with acute lethality at 96 h, atrial contractility did not. However, sub-lethal cardiotoxicity may impact long-term performance and survival. Dispersant did not affect the occurrence of pericardial edema; however, there was an apparent reduction in atrial contractility at 48 h of exposure. Pericardial edema at 48 h and lethality at 96 h were equally sensitive endpoints in mahi-mahi. PMID:26613518

  19. The Horizon Report. 2004 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2004

    2004-01-01

    This first edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" details findings of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on an ongoing series of interviews…

  20. The Horizon Report. 2007 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2007

    2007-01-01

    This fourth edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on ongoing…

  1. The Horizon Report. 2006 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2006

    2006-01-01

    This third edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on ongoing discussions…

  2. The Horizon Report. 2005 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2005

    2005-01-01

    This second edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on an ongoing series…

  3. PLUTO'S SEASONS: NEW PREDICTIONS FOR NEW HORIZONS

    SciTech Connect

    Young, L. A.

    2013-04-01

    Since the last Pluto volatile transport models were published in 1996, we have (1) new stellar occultation data from 2002 and 2006-2012 that show roughly twice the pressure as the first definitive occultation from 1988, (2) new information about the surface properties of Pluto, (3) a spacecraft due to arrive at Pluto in 2015, and (4) a new volatile transport model that is rapid enough to allow a large parameter-space search. Such a parameter-space search coarsely constrained by occultation results reveals three broad solutions: a high-thermal inertia, large volatile inventory solution with permanent northern volatiles (PNVs; using the rotational north pole convention); a lower thermal-inertia, smaller volatile inventory solution with exchanges of volatiles between hemispheres and a pressure plateau beyond 2015 (exchange with pressure plateau, EPP); and solutions with still smaller volatile inventories, with exchanges of volatiles between hemispheres and an early collapse of the atmosphere prior to 2015 (exchange with early collapse, EEC). PNV and EPP are favored by stellar occultation data, but EEC cannot yet be definitively ruled out without more atmospheric modeling or additional occultation observations and analysis.

  4. Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine.

    PubMed

    Deyle, Ethan R; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D; Munch, Stephan B; Perretti, Charles T; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George

    2013-04-16

    For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299

  5. Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

    PubMed Central

    Deyle, Ethan R.; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D.; Munch, Stephan B.; Perretti, Charles T.; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George

    2013-01-01

    For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299

  6. Horizon crossing and inflation with large {eta}

    SciTech Connect

    Kinney, William H.

    2005-07-15

    I examine the standard formalism of calculating curvature perturbations in inflation at horizon crossing, and derive a general relation which must be satisfied for the horizon-crossing formalism to be valid. This relation is satisfied for the usual cases of power-law and slow-roll inflation. I then consider a model for which the relation is strongly violated, and the curvature perturbation evolves rapidly on superhorizon scales. This model has Hubble slow-roll parameter {eta}=3, but predicts a scale-invariant spectrum of density perturbations. I consider the case of hybrid inflation with large {eta}, and show that such solutions do not solve the '{eta} problem' in supergravity. These solutions correspond to field evolution which has not yet relaxed to the inflationary attractor solution, and may make possible new, more natural models on the string landscape.

  7. The devil is in the specificity: the negative effect of prediction specificity on prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min

    2013-07-01

    In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making. PMID:23660410

  8. Gravity at the horizon: on relativistic effects, CMB-LSS correlations and ultra-large scales in Horndeski's theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renk, Janina; Zumalacárregui, Miguel; Montanari, Francesco

    2016-07-01

    We address the impact of consistent modifications of gravity on the largest observable scales, focusing on relativistic effects in galaxy number counts and the cross-correlation between the matter large scale structure (LSS) distribution and the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Our analysis applies to a very broad class of general scalar-tensor theories encoded in the Horndeski Lagrangian and is fully consistent on linear scales, retaining the full dynamics of the scalar field and not assuming quasi-static evolution. As particular examples we consider self-accelerating Covariant Galileons, Brans-Dicke theory and parameterizations based on the effective field theory of dark energy, using the hi class code to address the impact of these models on relativistic corrections to LSS observables. We find that especially effects which involve integrals along the line of sight (lensing convergence, time delay and the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect—ISW) can be considerably modified, and even lead to O(1000%) deviations from General Relativity in the case of the ISW effect for Galileon models, for which standard probes such as the growth function only vary by O(10%). These effects become dominant when correlating galaxy number counts at different redshifts and can lead to ~ 50% deviations in the total signal that might be observable by future LSS surveys. Because of their integrated nature, these deep-redshift cross-correlations are sensitive to modifications of gravity even when probing eras much before dark energy domination. We further isolate the ISW effect using the cross-correlation between LSS and CMB temperature anisotropies and use current data to further constrain Horndeski models. Forthcoming large-volume galaxy surveys using multiple-tracers will search for all these effects, opening a new window to probe gravity and cosmic acceleration at the largest scales available in our universe.

  9. Louisiana residents' self-reported lack of information following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Effects on seafood consumption and risk perception.

    PubMed

    Simon-Friedt, Bridget R; Howard, Jessi L; Wilson, Mark J; Gauthe, David; Bogen, Donald; Nguyen, Daniel; Frahm, Ericka; Wickliffe, Jeffrey K

    2016-09-15

    In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill adversely impacted many communities along the Gulf of Mexico. Effects on Gulf waters, marshes, aquatic life, and fisheries were evident in the following days, months, and years. Through studying affected communities' perceptions regarding the DWH accident, we aim to identify behavioral changes, understand public information sources, and inform dissemination strategies that improve communications from regulatory agencies. Over a three-year period (2012-2015), residents (n = 192) from 7 coastal parishes in southeast Louisiana were surveyed about their perceptions and behaviors before, during, and after the DWH accident. Self-reported consumption of local seafood decreased significantly (50%) during the DWH oil spill but returned to pre-event reported levels by 2015. However, negative seafood quality perceptions remain and have not returned to what were generally positive pre-event levels. Over 30% of study participants trust relatives, friends, and neighbors more than government officials or scientists as information sources regarding locally harvested seafood. Importantly, nearly 50% of participants report that they lack the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the safety of consuming local seafood. We conclude that a lack of information and trust in government agencies exacerbated negative perceptions of oil spill-related dangers. In some cases, overestimation of perceived dangers likely led to behavioral modifications that persist today. Efforts should be made to improve relationships between public health agencies and communities in order to properly inform all citizens of risks following environmental disasters. PMID:27289418

  10. The Effects of Beginning Reading Instruction in the "Horizons" Reading Program on the Reading Skills of Third and Fourth Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tobin, Kevin G.

    2004-01-01

    This study is a follow-up on a previous study of the effects of 2 beginning reading programs implemented in 1st grade. In the previous study, 40 1st-grade students who were matched based on their Concepts About Print Test (Clay, 1979) and Phonological Segmentation Fluency from the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good &…

  11. Predictive biochemical assays for late radiation effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, P.; Finkelstein, J.N.; Siemann, D.W.; Shapiro, D.L.; Van Houtte, P.; Penney, D.P.

    1986-04-01

    Surfactant precursors or other products of Type II pneumocytes have the potential to be the first biochemical marker for late radiation effects. This is particularly clinically important in the combined modality era because of the frequent occurrence of pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis secondary to radiation or chemotherapy. Accordingly, correlative studies have been pursued with the Type II pneumocyte as a beginning point to understand the complex pathophysiology of radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis. From our ultrastructural and biochemical studies, it is evident that Type II pneumocytes are an early target of radiation and the release of surfactant into the alveolus shortly after exposure persists for days and weeks. Through the use of lavaging techniques, alveolar surfactant has been elevated after pulmonary irradiation. In three murine strains and in the rabbit, there is a strong correlation with surfactant release at 7 and/or 28 days in vivo with later lethality in months. In vitro studies using cultures of type II pneumocytes also demonstrate dose response and tolerance factors that are comparable to the in vivo small and large animal diagnostic models. New markers are being developed to serve as a predictive index for later lethal pneumonopathies. With the development of these techniques, the search for early biochemical markers in man has been undertaken. Through the use of biochemical, histological, and ultrastructural techniques, a causal relationship between radiation effects on type II pneumocytes, pulmonary cells, endothelial cells of blood vessels, and their roles in the production of pneumonitis and fibrosis will evolve.

  12. Effects of streamline curvature on separation prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arolla, Sunil K.; Durbin, Paul A.

    2009-11-01

    In this study, the effects of streamline curvature on prediction of flow separation are investigated. The geometry is a circulation control airfoil, a high-lift configuration that has been under extensive research for more than two decades. A tangential jet is blown over a thick, rounded trailing edge, using the Coanda effect to delay separation. An attempt is made to understand, through numerical simulations, the dynamics of turbulent separation and reattachment on the Coanda surface. Highly curved, attached recirculation regions are seen to form. A physics based curvature correction proposed by Pettersson-Reif et al. (1999) is used in conjunction with ζ-f turbulence model. The chord-based Reynolds number is Re = 10^6. Two jet momentum coefficients of Cμ=0.03 and 0.1 are computed. In this paper, comparisons between the computed and experimental pressure distributions, velocity profiles and the position of flow detachment are presented. Comparisons with other closures such as Menter's SST model are also discussed.

  13. 50 CFR 622.14 - Area closures related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Horizon oil spill. 622.14 Section 622.14 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT... spill. (a) Caribbean EEZ area closure related to Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Effective May 11, 2010... Web site: http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/deepwater_horizon_oil_spill.htm. (b) Gulf EEZ area closure...

  14. Solar-terrestrial predictions proceedings. Volume 4: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnelly, R. E. (Editor)

    1980-01-01

    Papers about prediction of ionospheric and radio propagation conditions based primarily on empirical or statistical relations is discussed. Predictions of sporadic E, spread F, and scintillations generally involve statistical or empirical predictions. The correlation between solar-activity and terrestrial seismic activity and the possible relation between solar activity and biological effects is discussed.

  15. The Cauchy horizon singularity inside Kerr black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burko, Lior M.; Khanna, Gaurav

    2016-03-01

    The numerical technology that allows for the careful evolution of linearized fields inside Kerr black holes and the study of their behavior approaching the Cauchy horizon singularity includes a number of interesting aspects. The latter include compactified hyperboloidal coordinates and foliation, mixed type hyperbolic-elliptic PDE, and initial data evolution where all equal-coordinate hypersurfaces are spacelike. We review the need for the numerical technology that allows for the solution of the spin-2 Teukolsky equation inside Kerr black holes, and discuss the main features thereof. We present new results about the numerical properties of the Cauchy horizon singularity and their correspondence with the predictions of perturbative analysis. We then discuss present directions of study, which include the sub-dominant azimuthal modes, approaching the Cauchy horizon singularity along timelike directions, approaching the Marolf-Ori (``outflying'') singularity and the studying the fields along the Cauchy horizon.

  16. Accurate, reliable prototype earth horizon sensor head

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwarz, F.; Cohen, H.

    1973-01-01

    The design and performance is described of an accurate and reliable prototype earth sensor head (ARPESH). The ARPESH employs a detection logic 'locator' concept and horizon sensor mechanization which should lead to high accuracy horizon sensing that is minimally degraded by spatial or temporal variations in sensing attitude from a satellite in orbit around the earth at altitudes in the 500 km environ 1,2. An accuracy of horizon location to within 0.7 km has been predicted, independent of meteorological conditions. This corresponds to an error of 0.015 deg-at 500 km altitude. Laboratory evaluation of the sensor indicates that this accuracy is achieved. First, the basic operating principles of ARPESH are described; next, detailed design and construction data is presented and then performance of the sensor under laboratory conditions in which the sensor is installed in a simulator that permits it to scan over a blackbody source against background representing the earth space interface for various equivalent plant temperatures.

  17. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL No.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk, Sc.D.

    2002-04-30

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade HS systems has been ongoing this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (EXXON), FMC Trona, Twentymile Coal Company (RAG America), and SASOL Coal. Detailed monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  18. Autonomous navigation accuracy using simulated horizon sensor and sun sensor observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pease, G. E.; Hendrickson, H. T.

    1980-01-01

    A relatively simple autonomous system which would use horizon crossing indicators, a sun sensor, a quartz oscillator, and a microprogrammed computer is discussed. The sensor combination is required only to effectively measure the angle between the centers of the Earth and the Sun. Simulations for a particular orbit indicate that 2 km r.m.s. orbit determination uncertainties may be expected from a system with 0.06 deg measurement uncertainty. A key finding is that knowledge of the satellite orbit plane orientation can be maintained to this level because of the annual motion of the Sun and the predictable effects of Earth oblateness. The basic system described can be updated periodically by transits of the Moon through the IR horizon crossing indicator fields of view.

  19. Does exposure prediction bias health effect estimation? The relationship between confounding adjustment and exposure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Dominici, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    In environmental epidemiology, we are often faced with two challenges. First, an exposure prediction model is needed to estimate the exposure to an agent of interest, ideally at the individual level. Second, when estimating the health-effect associated with the exposure, confounding adjustment is needed in the health-effects regression model. The current literature addresses these two challenges separately. That is, methods that account for measurement error in the predicted exposure often fail to acknowledge the possibility of confounding, while methods designed to control confounding often fail to acknowledge that the exposure has been predicted. In this paper, we consider exposure prediction and confounding adjustment in a health-effects regression model simultaneously. By using theoretical arguments and simulation studies, we show that the bias of a health-effect estimate is influenced by the exposure prediction model, the type of confounding adjustment used in the health-effects regression model, and the relationship between these two. Moreover, we argue that even with a health-effects regression model that properly adjusts for confounding, the use of a predicted exposure can bias the health-effect estimate unless all confounders included in the health-effects regression model are also included in the exposure prediction model. While these results of this paper were motivated by studies of environmental contaminants, they apply more broadly to any context where an exposure needs to be predicted. PMID:24815302

  20. Physical process first law for bifurcate Killing horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Amsel, Aaron J.; Marolf, Donald; Virmani, Amitabh

    2008-01-15

    The physical process version of the first law for black holes states that the passage of energy and angular momentum through the horizon results in a change in area ({kappa}/8{pi}){delta}A={delta}E-{omega}{delta}J, so long as this passage is quasistationary. A similar physical process first law can be derived for any bifurcate Killing horizon in any spacetime dimension d{>=}3 using much the same argument. However, to make this law nontrivial, one must show that sufficiently quasistationary processes do in fact occur. In particular, one must show that processes exist for which the shear and expansion remain small, and in which no new generators are added to the horizon. Thorne, MacDonald, and Price considered related issues when an object falls across a d=4 black hole horizon. By generalizing their argument to arbitrary d{>=}3 and to any bifurcate Killing horizon, we derive a condition under which these effects are controlled and the first law applies. In particular, by providing a nontrivial first law for Rindler horizons, our work completes the parallel between the mechanics of such horizons and those of black holes for d{>=}3. We also comment on the situation for d=2.

  1. Information Horizons in Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sneppen, Kim

    2005-03-01

    We investigate how the structure constrain specific communication in social-, man-made and biological networks. We find that human networks of governance and collaboration are predictable on teat-a-teat level, reflecting well defined pathways, but globally inefficient (1). In contrast, the Internet tends to have better overall communication abilities, more alternative pathways, and is therefore more robust. Between these extremes are the molecular network of living organisms. Further, for most real world networks we find that communication ability is favored by topology on small distances, but disfavored at larger distances (2,3,4). We discuss the topological implications in terms of modularity and the positioning of hubs in the networks (5,6). Finally we introduce some simple models which demonstarte how communication may shape the structure of in particular man made networks (7,8). 1) K. Sneppen, A. Trusina, M. Rosvall (2004). Hide and seek on complex networks [cond-mat/0407055] 2) M. Rosvall, A. Trusina, P. Minnhagen and K. Sneppen (2004). Networks and Cities: An Information Perspective [cond-mat/0407054]. In PRL. 3) A. Trusina, M. Rosvall, K. Sneppen (2004). Information Horizons in Networks. [cond-mat/0412064] 4) M. Rosvall, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen (2004). Navigating Networks with Limited Information. [cond-mat/0412051] 5) S. Maslov and K. Sneppen (2002). Specificity and stability in topology of protein networks Science 296, 910-913 [cond-mat/0205380]. 6) A. Trusina, S. Maslov, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen Hierarchy Measures in Complex Networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 178702 [cond-mat/0308339]. 7) M. Rosvall and K. Sneppen (2003). Modeling Dynamics of Information Networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 178701 [cond-mat/0308399]. 8) B-J. Kim, A. Trusina, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen (2003). Self Organized Scale-Free Networks from Merging and Regeneration. nlin.AO/0403006. In European Journal of Physics.

  2. Eye-pupil displacement and prediction: effects on residual wavefront in adaptive optics retinal imaging

    PubMed Central

    Kulcsár, Caroline; Raynaud, Henri-François; Garcia-Rissmann, Aurea

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of pupil displacements on the best achievable performance of retinal imaging adaptive optics (AO) systems, using 52 trajectories of horizontal and vertical displacements sampled at 80 Hz by a pupil tracker (PT) device on 13 different subjects. This effect is quantified in the form of minimal root mean square (rms) of the residual phase affecting image formation, as a function of the delay between PT measurement and wavefront correction. It is shown that simple dynamic models identified from data can be used to predict horizontal and vertical pupil displacements with greater accuracy (in terms of average rms) over short-term time horizons. The potential impact of these improvements on residual wavefront rms is investigated. These results allow to quantify the part of disturbances corrected by retinal imaging systems that are caused by relative displacements of an otherwise fixed or slowy-varying subject-dependent aberration. They also suggest that prediction has a limited impact on wavefront rms and that taking into account PT measurements in real time improves the performance of AO retinal imaging systems. PMID:27231607

  3. Eye-pupil displacement and prediction: effects on residual wavefront in adaptive optics retinal imaging.

    PubMed

    Kulcsár, Caroline; Raynaud, Henri-François; Garcia-Rissmann, Aurea

    2016-03-01

    This paper studies the effect of pupil displacements on the best achievable performance of retinal imaging adaptive optics (AO) systems, using 52 trajectories of horizontal and vertical displacements sampled at 80 Hz by a pupil tracker (PT) device on 13 different subjects. This effect is quantified in the form of minimal root mean square (rms) of the residual phase affecting image formation, as a function of the delay between PT measurement and wavefront correction. It is shown that simple dynamic models identified from data can be used to predict horizontal and vertical pupil displacements with greater accuracy (in terms of average rms) over short-term time horizons. The potential impact of these improvements on residual wavefront rms is investigated. These results allow to quantify the part of disturbances corrected by retinal imaging systems that are caused by relative displacements of an otherwise fixed or slowy-varying subject-dependent aberration. They also suggest that prediction has a limited impact on wavefront rms and that taking into account PT measurements in real time improves the performance of AO retinal imaging systems. PMID:27231607

  4. Dynamical AdS strings across horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, Takaaki; Murata, Keiju

    2016-03-01

    We examine the nonlinear classical dynamics of a fundamental string in anti-de Sitter spacetime. The string is dual to the flux tube between an external quark-antiquark pair in {N}=4 super Yang-Mills theory. We perturb the string by shaking the endpoints and compute its time evolution numerically. We find that with sufficiently strong perturbations the string continues extending and plunges into the Poincaré horizon. In the evolution, effective horizons are also dynamically created on the string worldsheet. The quark and antiquark are thus causally disconnected, and the string transitions to two straight strings. The forces acting on the endpoints vanish with a power law whose slope depends on the perturbations. The condition for this transition to occur is that energy injection exceeds the static energy between the quark-antiquark pair.

  5. Status of the JPL Horizons Ephemeris System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgini, Jon D.

    2015-08-01

    Since 1996, the NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory on-line Horizons system has provided open access to the latest JPL orbit solutions through customizable ephemeris generation and searches. Currently, high-precision ephemerides for more than 683,000 objects are available: all known solar system bodies, several dozen spacecraft, system barycenters, and some libration points.Since inception, Horizons has produced 150 million ephemeris products in response to 70.4 million connections by 800,000 unique IP addresses. Recent usage is typically 6000 unique users requesting 4,000,000 ephemeris products per month.Horizons is freely accessible without an account and may be used and automated through any of three interfaces: interactive telnet connection, web-browser form, or by sending e-mail command-files.Asteroid and comet ephemerides are numerically integrated on request using JPL's DASTCOM5 database of initial conditions which is kept current by a separate process; as new measurements and discoveries are reported by the Minor Planet Center, they are automatically processed into new JPL orbit solutions. Radar targets and other objects of high interest have their orbit solutions manually examined and updated into the database.For asteroids and comets, SPK files may be dynamically created using Horizons. This is effectively a recording of the integrator output. The binary files may then be efficiently interpolated by user software to exactly reproduce the trajectory without having to duplicate the numerically integrated n-body dynamical model or PPN equations of motion.Other Horizons output is numerical and in the form of plain-text observer, vector, osculating element, and close-approach tables. More than one hundred quantities can be requested in various time-scales and coordinate systems. For asteroids and comets, statistical uncertainties can be mapped to output times to assess position and motion uncertainties.Horizons is consistent with the DE431 solar system solution

  6. The Effect of 3 Versus 6 Years of Zoledronic Acid Treatment of Osteoporosis: A Randomized Extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT)

    PubMed Central

    Black, Dennis M; Reid, Ian R; Boonen, Steven; Bucci-Rechtweg, Christina; Cauley, Jane A; Cosman, Felicia; Cummings, Steven R; Hue, Trisha F; Lippuner, Kurt; Lakatos, Peter; Leung, Ping Chung; Man, Zulema; Martinez, Ruvie Lou Maria; Tan, Monique; Ruzycky, Mary Ellen; Su, Guoqin; Eastell, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Zoledronic acid 5 mg (ZOL) annually for 3 years reduces fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. To investigate long-term effects of ZOL on bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk, the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic acid Once Yearly–Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT) was extended to 6 years. In this international, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled extension trial, 1233 postmenopausal women who received ZOL for 3 years in the core study were randomized to 3 additional years of ZOL (Z6, n = 616) or placebo (Z3P3, n = 617). The primary endpoint was femoral neck (FN) BMD percentage change from year 3 to 6 in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Secondary endpoints included other BMD sites, fractures, biochemical bone turnover markers, and safety. In years 3 to 6, FN-BMD remained constant in Z6 and dropped slightly in Z3P3 (between-treatment difference = 1.04%; 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 1.7; p = 0.0009) but remained above pretreatment levels. Other BMD sites showed similar differences. Biochemical markers remained constant in Z6 but rose slightly in Z3P3, remaining well below pretreatment levels in both. New morphometric vertebral fractures were lower in the Z6 (n = 14) versus Z3P3 (n = 30) group (odds ratio = 0.51; p = 0.035), whereas other fractures were not different. Significantly more Z6 patients had a transient increase in serum creatinine >0.5 mg/dL (0.65% versus 2.94% in Z3P3). Nonsignificant increases in Z6 of atrial fibrillation serious adverse events (2.0% versus 1.1% in Z3P3; p = 0.26) and stroke (3.1% versus 1.5% in Z3P3; p = 0.06) were seen. Postdose symptoms were similar in both groups. Reports of hypertension were significantly lower in Z6 versus Z3P3 (7.8% versus 15.1%, p < 0.001). Small differences in bone density and markers in those who continued versus those who stopped treatment suggest residual effects, and therefore, after 3 years of annual ZOL, many patients may discontinue

  7. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael; Dicks, Lynn V; Dinsdale, Jason; Entwistle, Abigail C; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A; Monk, Kathryn A; Ockendon, Nancy; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D; Tonneijck, Femke H; Wintle, Bonnie C

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic. PMID:25433442

  8. Horizon Science Experiment for Mars Global Surveyor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, T. Z.

    1997-07-01

    The Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly on the MGS orbiter monitors the orientation of the spacecraft relative to the limb by sensing atmospheric emission in the 15 mu m CO2 band. These data are used to maintain nadir pointing for the remote sensing instrument suite. The set of 5.5deg tall triangular fields of view normally straddle the limb, and cover quadrants 90deg apart around the limb. As an engineering device, the MHSA benefits from Mars' atmosphere being spatially bland at 15 mu m. However, these data will carry information about the thermal state of the atmosphere, which is subject to diurnal, seasonal, latitudinal, and dust-storm related variations, as well as possible wave effects. The Mariner 7 IRS, Mariner 9 IRIS, and Viking IRTM all demonstrated such variability. The Horizon Science Experiment (HORSE) is intended to glean new insight into atmospheric variation from the MGS horizon sensors, with continuous data flow to the Earth in the engineering stream, and a rapid buildup of spatial coverage. MHSA data will also be used to monitor atmospheric thermal behavior during the aerobraking of MGS in late 1997.

  9. Deepwater Horizon Situation Report #5

    SciTech Connect

    2010-06-10

    At approximately 11:00 pm EDT April 20, 2010 an explosion occurred aboard the Deepwater Horizon mobile offshore drilling unit (MODU) located 52 miles Southeast of Venice, LA and 130 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA. The MODU was drilling an exploratory well and was not producing oil at the time of the incident. The Deepwater Horizon MODU sank 1,500 feet northwest of the well site. Detailed information on response and recovery operations can be found at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

  10. Effects of Prediction and Contextual Support on Lexical Processing: Prediction takes Precedence

    PubMed Central

    Brothers, Trevor; Swaab, Tamara Y.; Traxler, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Readers may use contextual information to anticipate and pre-activate specific lexical items during reading. However, prior studies have not clearly dissociated the effects of accurate lexical prediction from other forms of contextual facilitation such as plausibility or semantic priming. In this study, we measured electrophysiological responses to predicted and unpredicted target words in passages providing varying levels of contextual support. This method was used to isolate the neural effects of prediction from other potential contextual influences on lexical processing. While both prediction and discourse context influenced ERP amplitudes within the time range of the N400, the effects of prediction occurred much more rapidly, preceding contextual facilitation by approximately 100ms. In addition, a frontal, post-N400 positivity (PNP) was modulated by both prediction accuracy and the overall plausibility of the preceding passage. These results suggest a unique temporal primacy for prediction in facilitating lexical access. They also suggest that the frontal PNP may index the costs of revising discourse representations following an incorrect lexical prediction. PMID:25497522

  11. New Horizons Mission to Pluto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delgado, Luis G.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the trajectory that will take the New Horizons Mission to Pluto. Included are photographs of the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, the assembled vehicle as it is being moved to the launch pad and the launch. Also shown are diagrams of the assembled parts with identifying part names.

  12. NIF featured on BBC "Horizon"

    ScienceCinema

    Brian Cox

    2010-09-01

    The National Ignition Facility, the world's largest laser system, located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was featured in the BBC broadcast "Horizon" hosted by physicist Brian Cox. Here is the NIF portion of the program, which was entitled "Can We Make A Star On Earth?" This video is used with the express permission of the BBC.

  13. Common Ground: Expanding Our Horizons.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDevitt, Michele J.

    In "Common Ground: Dialogue, Understanding, and the Teaching of Composition," Kurt Spellmeyer seeks to familiarize students and teachers with the linguistic and cultural no-man's-land separating them. Reinstating the value of two writing conventions often used by traditional students--expressive and commonplaces--can help expand on the horizons of…

  14. NIF featured on BBC "Horizon"

    SciTech Connect

    Brian Cox

    2010-01-12

    The National Ignition Facility, the world's largest laser system, located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was featured in the BBC broadcast "Horizon" hosted by physicist Brian Cox. Here is the NIF portion of the program, which was entitled "Can We Make A Star On Earth?" This video is used with the express permission of the BBC.

  15. New Horizons in Education, 2000.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Kwok Keung, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    This document contains the May and November 2000 issues of "New Horizons in Education," with articles in English and Chinese. The May issue includes the following articles: "A Key to Successful Environmental Education: Teacher Trainees' Attitude, Behaviour, and Knowledge" (Kevin Chung Wai Lui, Eric Po Keung Tsang, Sing Lai Chan); "Critical…

  16. Predicting Effective Disciplinary Styles of Teachers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bush, Doris W.; Achilles, C. M.

    1986-01-01

    Questionnaires examining teachers' personality style and attitudes about pupil control show that, among the unidentified number sampled teaching grades seven through eight, humanistic methods are more effective than authoritarian controls. (10 references) (CJH)

  17. Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Dormann, Carsten F; Schweiger, Oliver; Arens, P; Augenstein, I; Aviron, St; Bailey, Debra; Baudry, J; Billeter, R; Bugter, R; Bukácek, R; Burel, F; Cerny, M; Cock, Raphaël De; De Blust, Geert; DeFilippi, R; Diekötter, Tim; Dirksen, J; Durka, W; Edwards, P J; Frenzel, M; Hamersky, R; Hendrickx, Frederik; Herzog, F; Klotz, St; Koolstra, B; Lausch, A; Le Coeur, D; Liira, J; Maelfait, J P; Opdam, P; Roubalova, M; Schermann-Legionnet, Agnes; Schermann, N; Schmidt, T; Smulders, M J M; Speelmans, M; Simova, P; Verboom, J; van Wingerden, Walter; Zobel, M

    2008-03-01

    Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections. PMID:18070098

  18. Predicting Mass Media Effects: A Cognitive Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Thomas F.

    In this theoretical working paper, an attempt is made to pull together the two areas of cognitive information processing and emotional arousal, in order to provide a fuller framework for examining media effects. The development of a cognitive-behavioral index is proposed as a research tool resulting from this merger of areas, as are a number of…

  19. Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. PMID:27260782

  20. The Malcolm horizon: History and future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malcolm, R.

    1984-01-01

    The development of the Malcolm Horizon, a peripheral vision horizon used in flight simulation, is discussed. A history of the horizon display is presented as well as a brief overview of vision physiology, and the role balance plays is spatial orientation. Avenues of continued research in subconscious cockpit instrumentation are examined.

  1. Prediction of effective thermal conductivity of cellular ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Fu, X.; Viskanta, R.; Gore, J.P.

    1998-02-01

    Two unit cell based models have been developed to predict the effective thermal conductivity of porous materials using the thermal-circuit method. The first unit cell is a cubic-shaped box. The second unit cell is formed by a solid cube which is voided centrally by a sphere. The model predictions of the effective thermal conductivity of cellular ceramics are compared with experimental data.

  2. Yukawa unification predictions with effective "mirage" mediation.

    PubMed

    Anandakrishnan, Archana; Raby, Stuart

    2013-11-22

    In this Letter we analyze the consequences, for the LHC, of gauge and third family Yukawa coupling unification with a particular set of boundary conditions defined at the grand unified theory (GUT) scale, which we characterize as effective "mirage" mediation. We perform a global χ2 analysis including the observables M(W), M(Z), G(F), α(em)(-1), α(s)(M(Z)), M(t), m(b)(m(b)), M(τ), BR(B→X(s)γ), BR(B(s)→μ(+)μ(-)), and M(h). The fit is performed in the minimal supersymmetric standard model in terms of 10 GUT scale parameters, while tanβ and μ are fixed at the weak scale. We find good fits to the low energy data and a supersymmetry spectrum which is dramatically different than previously studied in the context of Yukawa unification. PMID:24313477

  3. Yukawa Unification Predictions with Effective ``Mirage'' Mediation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandakrishnan, Archana; Raby, Stuart

    2013-11-01

    In this Letter we analyze the consequences, for the LHC, of gauge and third family Yukawa coupling unification with a particular set of boundary conditions defined at the grand unified theory (GUT) scale, which we characterize as effective “mirage” mediation. We perform a global χ2 analysis including the observables MW, MZ, GF, αem-1, αs(MZ), Mt, mb(mb), Mτ, BR(B→Xsγ), BR(Bs→μ+μ-), and Mh. The fit is performed in the minimal supersymmetric standard model in terms of 10 GUT scale parameters, while tan⁡β and μ are fixed at the weak scale. We find good fits to the low energy data and a supersymmetry spectrum which is dramatically different than previously studied in the context of Yukawa unification.

  4. Fermion tunneling from dynamical horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Criscienzo, R.; Vanzo, L.

    2008-06-01

    The instability against emission of fermionic particles by the trapping horizon of an evolving black hole is analyzed and confirmed using the Hamilton-Jacobi tunneling method. This method automatically selects one special expression for the surface gravity of a changing horizon. The results also apply to point masses embedded in an expanding universe. As a bonus of the tunneling method, we gain the insight that the surface gravity still defines a temperature parameter as long as the evolution is sufficiently slow that the black-hole pass through a sequence of quasi-equilibrium states, and that black holes should be semi-classically unstable even in a hypothetical world without bosonic fields.

  5. [New horizons in pediatrics].

    PubMed

    Grossman, Zachi

    2012-06-01

    The profession of pediatrics is constantLy changing. New morbidities are replacing old ones, as a reflection of the changes in society. Even today, old and rare morbidities, like scurvy or acute urinary retention, can be encountered in special settings and populations such as handicapped and developmentally delayed children. The availability of ever newer genetic tests highlights the duty of pediatricians to constantly update families for carrier detection, but also raises questions on the cLinical significance of asymptomatic mutations. Vaccination is one of the most effective pubLic health measures, but failure of medical staff to follow self vaccination recommendations might jeopardize protecting the children. Anti vaccination movement is rapidly growing due to the Internet. However, we must acknowledge the benefits inherent in Internet forums, for example, adolescents consulting anonymously regarding pubertal issues. A new and most needed aspect of care is treatment of pain in children. Increased staff awareness concerning anaLgesia is needed as well as promoting the use of medical clowns for anxiety and pain provoking procedures. Delivering appropriate healthcare to different societal demographic sectors is a challenge for pediatricians. The approach to fever phobia among ultra orthodox parents and advocacy for safety recommendations in the Arab population are two such exampLes. Finally, we shouLd always strive for innovative approaches in pediatric diseases affecting quality of life, and celiac disease is certainly promising in this direction. PMID:22991856

  6. Penrose inequality and apparent horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Ben-Dov, Ishai

    2004-12-15

    A spherically symmetric spacetime is presented with an initial data set that is asymptotically flat, satisfies the dominant energy condition, and such that on this initial data M<{radical}(A/16{pi}), where M is the total mass and A is the area of the apparent horizon. This provides a counterexample to a commonly stated version of the Penrose inequality, though it does not contradict the true Penrose inequality.

  7. New Horizons Tracks an Asteroid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    The two 'spots' in this image are a composite of two images of asteroid 2002 JF56 taken on June 11 and June 12, 2006, with the Multispectral Visible Imaging Camera (MVIC) component of the New Horizons Ralph imager. In the bottom image, taken when the asteroid was about 3.36 million kilometers (2.1 million miles) away from the spacecraft, 2002 JF56 appears like a dim star. At top, taken at a distance of about 1.34 million kilometers (833,000 miles), the object is more than a factor of six brighter. The best current, estimated diameter of the asteroid is approximately 2.5 kilometers.

    The asteroid observation was a chance for the New Horizons team to test the spacecraft's ability to track a rapidly moving object. On June 13 New Horizons came to within about 102,000 kilometers of the small asteroid, when the spacecraft was nearly 368 million kilometers (228 million miles) from the Sun and about 273 million kilometers (170 million miles) from Earth.

  8. Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

    2016-01-01

    Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important. PMID:27376005

  9. Landsat-4 horizon scanner flight performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanow, S.; Chen, L. C.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the flight data from a new design of horizon scanner flown on Landsat-4. The salient features in the data are described and demonstrated by data plots. High frequency noise must be filtered out to achieve good accuracy, but this is effectively done by 128-point averaging. Sun and moon interference effects are identified. The effects of earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and the residual systematic errors are analyzed. Most of the residual errors are apparently explained by the effects of earth radiance variation, with the winter polar regions showing the highest variability in the attitude measurements due to winter stratosphere temperature variations. In general, this sensor provides improved accuracy over those flown on previous missions.

  10. Beyond the veil: Inner horizon instability and holography

    SciTech Connect

    Balasubramanian, Vijay; Levi, Thomas S.

    2004-11-15

    We show that scalar perturbations of the eternal, rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole should lead to an instability of the inner (Cauchy) horizon, preserving strong cosmic censorship. Because of backscattering from the geometry, plane-wave modes have a divergent stress tensor at the event horizon, but suitable wave packets avoid this difficulty, and are dominated at late times by quasinormal behavior. The wave packets have cuts in the complexified coordinate plane that are controlled by requirements of continuity, single-valuedness, and positive energy. Due to a focusing effect, regular wave packets nevertheless have a divergent stress energy at the inner horizon, signaling an instability. We propose that this instability, which is localized behind the event horizon, is detected holographically as a breakdown in the semiclassical computation of dual conformal field theory (CFT) expectation values in which the analytic behavior of wave packets in the complexified coordinate plane plays an integral role. In the dual field theory, this is interpreted as an encoding of physics behind the horizon in the entanglement between otherwise independent CFTs.

  11. Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1994-01-01

    In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

  12. Energy and information near black hole horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Freivogel, Ben

    2014-07-01

    The central challenge in trying to resolve the firewall paradox is to identify excitations in the near-horizon zone of a black hole that can carry information without injuring a freely falling observer. By analyzing the problem from the point of view of a freely falling observer, I arrive at a simple proposal for the degrees of freedom that carry information out of the black hole. An infalling observer experiences the information-carrying modes as ingoing, negative energy excitations of the quantum fields. In these states, freely falling observers who fall in from infinity do not encounter a firewall, but freely falling observers who begin their free fall from a location close to the horizon are ''frozen'' by a flux of negative energy. When the black hole is ''mined,'' the number of information-carrying modes increases, increasing the negative energy flux in the infalling frame without violating the equivalence principle. Finally, I point out a loophole in recent arguments that an infalling observer must detect a violation of unitarity, effective field theory, or free infall.

  13. A receding horizon approach for dynamic UAV mission management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassandras, Christos G.; Li, Wei

    2003-09-01

    We consider a setting where multiple UAVs form a team cooperating to visit multiple targets to collect rewards associated with them. The team objective is to maximize the total reward accumulated over a given time interval. Complicating factors include uncertainties regarding the locations of targets and the effectiveness of collecting rewards, differences among vehicle capabilities, and the fact that rewards are time-varying. We describe a Receding Horizon (RH) control scheme which dynamically assigns vehicles to targets and simultaneously determines associated trajectories. This scheme is based on solving a sequence of optimization problems over a planning horizon and executing them over a shorter action horizon. We also describe a simulated battlespace environment designed to test UAV team missions and to illustrate how the RH scheme can achieve optimal performance with high probability.

  14. Deepwater Horizon oil spill monitoring using airborne multispectral infrared imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Sylvia S.; Lewis, Paul E.

    2011-06-01

    On April 28, 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Airborne Spectral Photometric Environmental Collection Technology (ASPECT) aircraft was deployed to Gulfport, Mississippi to provide airborne remotely sensed air monitoring and situational awareness data and products in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. The ASPECT aircraft was released from service on August 9, 2010 after having flown over 85 missions that included over 325 hours of flight operation. This paper describes several advanced analysis capabilities specifically developed for the Deepwater Horizon mission to correctly locate, identify, characterize, and quantify surface oil using ASPECT's multispectral infrared data. The data products produced using these advanced analysis capabilities provided the Deepwater Horizon Incident Command with a capability that significantly increased the effectiveness of skimmer vessel oil recovery efforts directed by the U.S. Coast Guard, and were considered by the Incident Command as key situational awareness information.

  15. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium

    SciTech Connect

    Silling, Stewart A.; Littlewood, David J.; Seleson, Pablo

    2015-12-10

    Here, a notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with variable horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties unchanged. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under a homogeneous deformation. These artifacts depend on the second derivative of the horizon and can be reduced by employing a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress. Bodies with piecewise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forces by using a simpler technique called a splice. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both the partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.

  16. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Silling, Stewart A.; Littlewood, David J.; Seleson, Pablo

    2015-12-10

    Here, a notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with variable horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties unchanged. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under a homogeneous deformation. These artifacts depend on the second derivative of the horizon and can be reduced by employing a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress. Bodies with piecewise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forcesmore » by using a simpler technique called a splice. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both the partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.« less

  17. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium.

    SciTech Connect

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Littlewood, David John; Seleson, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    A notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with vari- able horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties un- changed. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under homogeneous deformation. These artifacts de- pend on the second derivative of horizon and can be reduced by use of a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress . Bodies with piece- wise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forces by using a technique called a splice between the regions. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.

  18. A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D; Tonneijck, Femke H; Wintle, Bonnie C; Wright, Katherine E

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China. PMID:26688445

  19. Near-horizon solution for Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati perturbations

    SciTech Connect

    Sawicki, Ignacy; Song, Yong-Seon; Hu, Wayne

    2007-03-15

    We develop a scaling ansatz for the master equation in Dvali, Gabadadze, Porrati cosmologies, which allows us to solve the equations of motion for perturbations off the brane during periods when the on-brane evolution is scale free. This allows us to understand the behavior of the gravitational potentials outside the horizon at high redshifts and close to the horizon today. We confirm that the results of Koyama and Maartens are valid at scales relevant for observations such as galaxy-ISW correlations. At larger scales, there is an additional suppression of the potential which reduces the growth rate even further and would strengthen the integrated Sachs-Wolf effect.

  20. Black Hole Physics with the Event Horizon Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozel, Feryal

    2016-01-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope is an experiment that is being performed on a large and ever-increasing array of radio telescopes that span the Earth from Hawaii to Chile and from the South Pole to Arizona. When data will be taken with the full array, it will image the event horizons of the supermassive black hole at the center of our Galaxy, Sagittarius A*, and the black hole at the center of M87, with an unprecedented 10 microarcssecond resolution. This will allow us to take the first ever pictures of black holes at 1.3 and 0.85 mm wavelengths and look for the shadow that is a direct evidence for a black hole predicted by the theory of General Relativity. In addition, the Event Horizon Telescope will also enable us to study the process by which black holes accrete matter and grow in mass. I will discuss the theoretical developments in simulating the properties of the black hole accretion flows and their expected images using state-of-the-art algorithms and high performance computing. Interpreting the upcoming observations within this theoretical framework will open new horizons in black hole astrophysics.

  1. Predictive modeling of nanomaterial exposure effects in biological systems

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiong; Tang, Kaizhi; Harper, Stacey; Harper, Bryan; Steevens, Jeffery A; Xu, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Background Predictive modeling of the biological effects of nanomaterials is critical for industry and policymakers to assess the potential hazards resulting from the application of engineered nanomaterials. Methods We generated an experimental dataset on the toxic effects experienced by embryonic zebrafish due to exposure to nanomaterials. Several nanomaterials were studied, such as metal nanoparticles, dendrimer, metal oxide, and polymeric materials. The embryonic zebrafish metric (EZ Metric) was used as a screening-level measurement representative of adverse effects. Using the dataset, we developed a data mining approach to model the toxic endpoints and the overall biological impact of nanomaterials. Data mining techniques, such as numerical prediction, can assist analysts in developing risk assessment models for nanomaterials. Results We found several important attributes that contribute to the 24 hours post-fertilization (hpf) mortality, such as dosage concentration, shell composition, and surface charge. These findings concur with previous studies on nanomaterial toxicity using embryonic zebrafish. We conducted case studies on modeling the overall effect/impact of nanomaterials and the specific toxic endpoints such as mortality, delayed development, and morphological malformations. The results show that we can achieve high prediction accuracy for certain biological effects, such as 24 hpf mortality, 120 hpf mortality, and 120 hpf heart malformation. The results also show that the weighting scheme for individual biological effects has a significant influence on modeling the overall impact of nanomaterials. Sample prediction models can be found at http://neiminer.i-a-i.com/nei_models. Conclusion The EZ Metric-based data mining approach has been shown to have predictive power. The results provide valuable insights into the modeling and understanding of nanomaterial exposure effects. PMID:24098077

  2. Theory underlying the peripheral vision horizon device

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Money, K. E.

    1984-01-01

    Peripheral Vision Horizon Device (PVHD) theory states that the likelihood of pilot disorientation in flight is reduced by providing an artificial horizon that provides orientation information to peripheral vision. In considering the validity of the theory, three areas are explored: the use of an artificial horizon device over some other flight instrument; the use of peripheral vision over foveal vision; and the evidence that peripheral vision is well suited to the processing of orientation information.

  3. Imaging an Event Horizon: Mitigation of Source Variability of Sagittarius A*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Ru-Sen; Roelofs, Freek; Fish, Vincent L.; Shiokawa, Hotaka; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Gammie, Charles F.; Falcke, Heino; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Zensus, J. Anton

    2016-02-01

    The black hole in the center of the Galaxy, associated with the compact source Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), is predicted to cast a shadow upon the emission of the surrounding plasma flow, which encodes the influence of general relativity (GR) in the strong-field regime. The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network with a goal of imaging nearby supermassive black holes (in particular Sgr A* and M87) with angular resolution sufficient to observe strong gravity effects near the event horizon. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations show that radio emission from Sgr A* exhibits variability on timescales of minutes, much shorter than the duration of a typical VLBI imaging experiment, which usually takes several hours. A changing source structure during the observations, however, violates one of the basic assumptions needed for aperture synthesis in radio interferometry imaging to work. By simulating realistic EHT observations of a model movie of Sgr A*, we demonstrate that an image of the average quiescent emission, featuring the characteristic black hole shadow and photon ring predicted by GR, can nonetheless be obtained by observing over multiple days and subsequent processing of the visibilities (scaling, averaging, and smoothing) before imaging. Moreover, it is shown that this procedure can be combined with an existing method to mitigate the effects of interstellar scattering. Taken together, these techniques allow the black hole shadow in the Galactic center to be recovered on the reconstructed image.

  4. The Influence of Viscous Effects on Ice Accretion Prediction and Airfoil Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Wright, William B.

    2005-01-01

    A computational study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of using a viscous flow solution in an ice accretion code and the resulting accuracy of aerodynamic performance prediction. Ice shapes were obtained for one single-element and one multi-element airfoil using both potential flow and Navier-Stokes flowfields in the LEWICE ice accretion code. Aerodynamics were then calculated using a Navier-Stokes flow solver.

  5. Spectroscopy of a weakly isolated horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ge-Rui; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2016-06-01

    The spectroscopy of a weakly isolated horizon has been investigated. We obtain an equally spaced entropy spectrum with its quantum equal to the one given by Bekenstein (Phys Rev D 7:2333, 1973). We demonstrate that the quantization of entropy and area is a generic property of horizons which exists in a wide class of spacetimes admitting weakly isolated horizons. Our method based on the tunneling method also indicates that the entropy quantum of black hole horizons is closely related to Hawking temperature.

  6. Effective protein conformational sampling based on predicted torsion angles.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yuedong; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2016-04-30

    Protein structure prediction is a long-standing problem in molecular biology. Due to lack of an accurate energy function, it is often difficult to know whether the sampling algorithm or the energy function is the most important factor for failure of locating near-native conformations of proteins. This article examines the size dependence of sampling effectiveness by using a perfect "energy function": the root-mean-squared distance from the target native structure. Using protein targets up to 460 residues from critical assessment of structure prediction techniques (CASP11, 2014), we show that the accuracy of near native structures sampled is relatively independent of protein sizes but strongly depends on the errors of predicted torsion angles. Even with 40% out-of-range angle prediction, 2 Å or less near-native conformation can be sampled. The result supports that the poor energy function is one of the bottlenecks of structure prediction and predicted torsion angles are useful for overcoming the bottleneck by restricting the sampling space in the absence of a perfect energy function. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26696379

  7. Initial Integration of Noise Prediction Tools for Acoustic Scattering Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nark, Douglas M.; Burley, Casey L.; Tinetti, Ana; Rawls, John W.

    2008-01-01

    This effort provides an initial glimpse at NASA capabilities available in predicting the scattering of fan noise from a non-conventional aircraft configuration. The Aircraft NOise Prediction Program, Fast Scattering Code, and the Rotorcraft Noise Model were coupled to provide increased fidelity models of scattering effects on engine fan noise sources. The integration of these codes led to the identification of several keys issues entailed in applying such multi-fidelity approaches. In particular, for prediction at noise certification points, the inclusion of distributed sources leads to complications with the source semi-sphere approach. Computational resource requirements limit the use of the higher fidelity scattering code to predict radiated sound pressure levels for full scale configurations at relevant frequencies. And, the ability to more accurately represent complex shielding surfaces in current lower fidelity models is necessary for general application to scattering predictions. This initial step in determining the potential benefits/costs of these new methods over the existing capabilities illustrates a number of the issues that must be addressed in the development of next generation aircraft system noise prediction tools.

  8. GESSE: Predicting Drug Side Effects from Drug-Target Relationships.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Nueno, Violeta I; Souchet, Michel; Karaboga, Arnaud S; Ritchie, David W

    2015-09-28

    The in silico prediction of unwanted side effects (SEs) caused by the promiscuous behavior of drugs and their targets is highly relevant to the pharmaceutical industry. Considerable effort is now being put into computational and experimental screening of several suspected off-target proteins in the hope that SEs might be identified early, before the cost associated with developing a drug candidate rises steeply. Following this need, we present a new method called GESSE to predict potential SEs of drugs from their physicochemical properties (three-dimensional shape plus chemistry) and to target protein data extracted from predicted drug-target relationships. The GESSE approach uses a canonical correlation analysis of the full drug-target and drug-SE matrices, and it then calculates a probability that each drug in the resulting drug-target matrix will have a given SE using a Bayesian discriminant analysis (DA) technique. The performance of GESSE is quantified using retrospective (external database) analysis and literature examples by means of area under the ROC curve analysis, "top hit rates", misclassification rates, and a χ(2) independence test. Overall, the robust and very promising retrospective statistics obtained and the many SE predictions that have experimental corroboration demonstrate that GESSE can successfully predict potential drug-SE profiles of candidate drug compounds from their predicted drug-target relationships. PMID:26251970

  9. Joint Effect of Multiple Common SNPs Predicts Melanoma Susceptibility

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Shenying; Han, Jiali; Zhang, Mingfeng; Wang, Li-e; Wei, Qingyi; Amos, Christopher I.; Lee, Jeffrey E.

    2013-01-01

    Single genetic variants discovered so far have been only weakly associated with melanoma. This study aims to use multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) jointly to obtain a larger genetic effect and to improve the predictive value of a conventional phenotypic model. We analyzed 11 SNPs that were associated with melanoma risk in previous studies and were genotyped in MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) and Harvard Medical School investigations. Participants with ≥15 risk alleles were 5-fold more likely to have melanoma compared to those carrying ≤6. Compared to a model using the most significant single variant rs12913832, the increase in predictive value for the model using a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 11 SNPs was 0.07(95% CI, 0.05-0.07). The overall predictive value of the PRS together with conventional phenotypic factors in the MDACC population was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.69). PRS significantly improved the risk prediction and reclassification in melanoma as compared with the conventional model. Our study suggests that a polygenic profile can improve the predictive value of an individual gene polymorphism and may be able to significantly improve the predictive value beyond conventional phenotypic melanoma risk factors. PMID:24392023

  10. Predictive Effects of Online Peer Feedback Types on Performance Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Fu-Yun; Wu, Chun-Ping

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the individual and combined predictive effects of two types of feedback (i.e., quantitative ratings and descriptive comments) in online peer-assessment learning systems on the quality of produced work. A total of 233 students participated in the study for six weeks. An online learning system that allows students to contribute…

  11. Prediction of Harmful Human Health Effects of Chemicals from Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, Mark T. D.

    There is a great need to assess the harmful effects of chemicals to which man is exposed. Various in silico techniques including chemical grouping and category formation, as well as the use of (Q)SARs can be applied to predict the toxicity of chemicals for a number of toxicological effects. This chapter provides an overview of the state of the art of the prediction of the harmful effects of chemicals to human health. A variety of existing data can be used to obtain information; many such data are formalized into freely available and commercial databases. (Q)SARs can be developed (as illustrated with reference to skin sensitization) for local and global data sets. In addition, chemical grouping techniques can be applied on "similar" chemicals to allow for read-across predictions. Many "expert systems" are now available that incorporate these approaches. With these in silico approaches available, the techniques to apply them successfully have become essential. Integration of different in silico approaches with each other, as well as with other alternative approaches, e.g., in vitro and -omics through the development of integrated testing strategies, will assist in the more efficient prediction of the harmful health effects of chemicals

  12. Motion Prediction and the Velocity Effect in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benguigui, Nicolas; Broderick, Michael P.; Baures, Robin; Amorim, Michel-Ange

    2008-01-01

    In coincidence-timing studies, children have been shown to respond too early to slower stimuli and too late to faster stimuli. To examine this velocity effect, children aged 6, 7.5, 9, 10.5, and adults were tested with two different velocities in a prediction-motion task which consisted of judging, after the occlusion of the final part of its…

  13. EFFECTS OF PHOTOCHEMICAL KINETIC MECHANISMS ON OXIDANT MODEL PREDICTIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The comparative effects of kinetic mechanisms on oxidant model predictions have been tested using two different mechanisms (the Carbon-Bond Mechanism II (CBM-II) and the Demerjian Photochemical Box Model (DPBM) mechanism) in three air quality models (the OZIPM/EKMA, the Urban Air...

  14. Higher Horizons: An Evaluation of an Expanded Team Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartford Public Schools, CT.

    The original Higher Horizons Program or HH 100, was established in 1965 as a ninth grade compensatory model which could be used to demonstrate that some of the more salient ravages of educational deprivation could be corrected effectively, and at the high school level. So as to demonstrate that secondary school compensatory education could…

  15. New Horizons for Learning: An Interview with Dee Dickinson

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Windham, Scott; Dickinson, Dee

    2005-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Dee Dickinson, founder and chief learning officer of New Horizons for Learning, a nonprofit international education network whose mission is to identify, communicate, and help implement effective teaching and learning strategies. Founded in 1980 and now operating largely through its Web site, New Horizons…

  16. Prediction of incidence and surface roughness effects on turbine performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.

    1993-01-01

    The results of a Navier-Stokes analysis for predicting the change in turbine efficiency due to a change in either incidence or surface roughness is discussed. It was experimentally determined by Boynton, Tabibzadeh, and Hudson that polishing the SSME high pressure fuel turbine blades improved turbine efficiency by about 2 points over a wide range of operating conditions. These conditions encompassed the range of incidence seen by the turbine blading during flight. It is also necessary to be able to predict turbine performance at various operating points for future rocket turbopump applications. The code RVCQ3D, developed by Rod Chima, was used to determine the effects of changes in incidence angle on turbine blade row efficiency. The midspan Navier-Stokes results were used in conjunction with an inviscid flow analysis code to predict the efficiency of the two stage SSME over a wide range of operating conditions for smooth and rough turbine blades. The use of the Navier-Stokes analysis to predict changes in turbine efficiency due to variation in incidence angles was found to be superior to other incidence loss correlations available in the literature. The sensitivity of the Navier-Stokes results to grid parameters is discussed. The effects of the surface roughness were accounted for using the Cebeci-Chang rough wall turbulence model. This model was implemented in the code RVCQ3D. The implementation of this model for predicting the change in efficiency is also discussed.

  17. Output-feedback control of combined sewer networks through receding horizon control with moving horizon estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph-Duran, Bernat; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Cembrano, Gabriela

    2015-10-01

    An output-feedback control strategy for pollution mitigation in combined sewer networks is presented. The proposed strategy provides means to apply model-based predictive control to large-scale sewer networks, in-spite of the lack of measurements at most of the network sewers. In previous works, the authors presented a hybrid linear control-oriented model for sewer networks together with the formulation of Optimal Control Problems (OCP) and State Estimation Problems (SEP). By iteratively solving these problems, preliminary Receding Horizon Control with Moving Horizon Estimation (RHC/MHE) results, based on flow measurements, were also obtained. In this work, the RHC/MHE algorithm has been extended to take into account both flow and water level measurements and the resulting control loop has been extensively simulated to assess the system performance according different measurement availability scenarios and rain events. All simulations have been carried out using a detailed physically based model of a real case-study network as virtual reality.

  18. The effect of 6 versus 9 years of zoledronic acid treatment in osteoporosis: a randomized second extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT).

    PubMed

    Black, Dennis M; Reid, Ian R; Cauley, Jane A; Cosman, Felicia; Leung, Ping Chung; Lakatos, Peter; Lippuner, Kurt; Cummings, Steven R; Hue, Trisha F; Mukhopadhyay, Amitava; Tan, Monique; Aftring, R Paul; Eastell, Richard

    2015-05-01

    While bisphosphonates reduce fracture risk over 3 to 5 years, the optimal duration of treatment is uncertain. In a randomized extension study (E1) of the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly-Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg annually for 6 years showed maintenance of bone mineral density (BMD), decrease in morphometric vertebral fractures, and a modest reduction in bone turnover markers (BTMs) compared with discontinuation after 3 years. To investigate the longer-term efficacy and safety of ZOL, a second extension (E2) was conducted to 9 years in which women on ZOL for 6 years in E1 were randomized to either ZOL (Z9) or placebo (Z6P3) for 3 additional years. In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind study, 190 women were randomized to Z9 (n = 95) and Z6P3 (n = 95). The primary endpoint was change in total hip BMD at year 9 vs. year 6 in Z9 compared with Z6P3. Other secondary endpoints included fractures, BTMs, and safety. From year 6 to 9, the mean change in total hip BMD was -0.54% in Z9 vs. -1.31% in Z6P3 (difference 0.78%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.37%, 1.93%; p = 0.183). BTMs showed small, non-significant increases in those who discontinued after 6 years compared with those who continued for 9 years. The number of fractures was low and did not significantly differ by treatment. While generally safe, there was a small increase in cardiac arrhythmias (combined serious and non-serious) in the Z9 group but no significant imbalance in other safety parameters. The results suggest almost all patients who have received six annual ZOL infusions can stop medication for up to 3 years with apparent maintenance of benefits. PMID:25545380

  19. Investigating physiological, cellular and molecular effects in juvenile blue crab, Callinectus sapidus, exposed to field-collected sediments contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon Incident.

    PubMed

    Pie, Hannah V; Schott, Eric J; Mitchelmore, Carys L

    2015-11-01

    Juvenile blue crabs, Callinectus sapidus, were exposed for 31 days to six different sediments collected within the Pass a Loutre State Wildlife Management Area approximately 6 months or 1.5 years post-capping of the Macondo-252 well-head following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Incident. Based on forensic analysis to fingerprint for DWH oil, these sediments differed in their levels of DWH oil contamination, and included one reference sediment collected from a location with no detectable DWH oil present. The concentration of 50 individual parent and alkylation group polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), saturated hydrocarbons (37 total), and total extractable hydrocarbons were determined in each sediment, as were biologically relevant metals, grain size distribution, percent total organic carbon, and percent total solids. Total concentrations of 50 PAHs (TPAH50) of initial treatment sediments ranged from 187 μg kg(-1) (reference site) to 2,086,458 μg kg(-1) (the highest DWH oil contaminated site). Multiple biological endpoints were measured including mortality, growth, and ecdysis. Additionally, early biomarkers of biological stress were examined in the hemolymph and hepatopancreas of crabs, including DNA damage (Comet assay) and expression of genes encoding Cu-metallothionein (CuMT), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD). Over the 31 day exposure, there were no treatment related mortalities in juvenile blue crabs. The overall growth and molting of the crabs were not substantially different between the various sediment exposures over the exposure period. Additionally, none of the early biomarkers of biological stress were correlated with PAH concentrations. Overall, juvenile blue crabs did not appear to be negatively impacted during the 31 day exposure by DWH oil contaminated sediments collected at least 6 months post-capping of the Macondo-252 well-head. PMID:26100732

  20. The effect of word predictability on reading time is logarithmic.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nathaniel J; Levy, Roger

    2013-09-01

    It is well known that real-time human language processing is highly incremental and context-driven, and that the strength of a comprehender's expectation for each word encountered is a key determinant of the difficulty of integrating that word into the preceding context. In reading, this differential difficulty is largely manifested in the amount of time taken to read each word. While numerous studies over the past thirty years have shown expectation-based effects on reading times driven by lexical, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic, and other information sources, there has been little progress in establishing the quantitative relationship between expectation (or prediction) and reading times. Here, by combining a state-of-the-art computational language model, two large behavioral data-sets, and non-parametric statistical techniques, we establish for the first time the quantitative form of this relationship, finding that it is logarithmic over six orders of magnitude in estimated predictability. This result is problematic for a number of established models of eye movement control in reading, but lends partial support to an optimal perceptual discrimination account of word recognition. We also present a novel model in which language processing is highly incremental well below the level of the individual word, and show that it predicts both the shape and time-course of this effect. At a more general level, this result provides challenges for both anticipatory processing and semantic integration accounts of lexical predictability effects. And finally, this result provides evidence that comprehenders are highly sensitive to relative differences in predictability - even for differences between highly unpredictable words - and thus helps bring theoretical unity to our understanding of the role of prediction at multiple levels of linguistic structure in real-time language comprehension. PMID:23747651

  1. Duct propagation modelling for the integrated-refractive-effects prediction system (IREPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgartner, G. B., Jr.; Hitney, H. V.; Pappert, R. A.

    1983-12-01

    IREPS and its products and models are reviewed and a recent propagation modelling effort to improve IREPS signal-prediction capabilities in tropospheric ducting environments is described. The feasibility of using asymptotic forms of plane wave reflection coefficients for waveguide calculations in order to expedite beyond-the-horizon field calculations is examined. Asymptotic formulas are given and compared with exact evaluations, and mode-search methods and field-strength formulas are summarized. Waveguide field calculations obtained using a 'mixed asymptotic' method are compared with the complete full-wave calculations.

  2. Mach Number Effects on Turbine Blade Transition Length Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Simon, F. F.

    1998-01-01

    The effect of a Mach number correction on a model for predicting the length of transition was investigated. The transition length decreases as the turbulent spot production rate increases. Much of the data for predicting the spot production rate comes from low speed flow experiments. Recent data and analysis showed that the spot production rate is affected by Mach number. The degree of agreement between analysis and data for turbine blade heat transfer without film cooling is strongly dependent of accurately predicting the length of transition. Consequently, turbine blade heat transfer data sets were used to validate a transition length turbulence model. A method for modifying models for the length of transition to account for Mach number effects is presented. The modification was made to two transition length models. The modified models were incorporated into the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes code, RVCQ3D. Comparisons were made between predicted and measured midspan surface heat transfer for stator and rotor turbine blades. The results showed that accounting for Mach number effects significantly improved the agreement with the experimental data.

  3. Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, L.; Besser, R.; Hejduk, M.

    The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for screening against the high accuracy catalog, then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is a primary source of state estimate uncertainty, and drag is directly governed by space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times, and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag), giving rise to several questions. Does a change in space weather make a close approach safer or riskier? Might performing a maneuver make the approach worse due to uncertainty in predicted location at a given time? What if there are errors in the predicted timing or magnitude of the space weather event? Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of drag perturbations on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction can become riskier or less risky. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag coefficient of the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the effect is likely to have on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, all of the observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

  4. Predictive Models for Fast and Effective Profiling of Kinase Inhibitors.

    PubMed

    Bora, Alina; Avram, Sorin; Ciucanu, Ionel; Raica, Marius; Avram, Stefana

    2016-05-23

    In this study we developed two-dimensional pharmacophore-based random forest models for the effective profiling of kinase inhibitors. One hundred seven prediction models were developed to address distinct kinases spanning over all kinase groups. Rigorous external validation demonstrates excellent virtual screening and classification potential of the predictors and, more importantly, the capacity to prioritize novel chemical scaffolds in large chemical libraries. The models built upon more diverse and more potent compounds tend to exert the highest predictive power. The analysis of ColBioS-FlavRC (Collection of Bioselective Flavonoids and Related Compounds) highlighted several potentially promiscuous derivatives with undesirable selectivity against kinases. The prediction models can be downloaded from www.chembioinf.ro . PMID:27064988

  5. Over-the-horizon propagation measurements at six radar-frequency bands at the Atlantic Ocean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boekema, R. B.

    1993-07-01

    In the autumn of 1989, the propagation subgroup of NATO AC/243 has conducted a propagation experiment near Lorient France, at the Atlantic Ocean. The purpose of this experiment was to gain an insight into the influence of the evaporation duct above the sea on the propagation of radar signals of different frequencies in an over-the-horizon situation and into the applicability of model predictions. The geometry of the experiment has been chosen to represent a typical ship defence situation. The measurements have shown that for the present case the nearly always present evaporation duct results in a signal enhancement with the strongest effects at the 10.5 and 16 GHz frequencies. An extended study of the quality of the model predictions, possible by the unique set of measurement results, shows some interesting matters. If the process of prediction is divided into two parts, the calculation of the duct height from the meteorological data and the path loss calculation from this duct height, the conclusion is made that the first part is responsible for the largest inaccuracies. The used duct height calculation method showed systematic deviations for different meteorological conditions. The inaccuracy of the duct height calculation makes useful path loss predictions at the millimeter-wave frequencies (35 and 94 GHz) impossible for this over-the-horizon situation. The predictions at the lower frequencies are much better, but not always satisfactory. The deviation analyses in this report can be useful to improve propagation models.

  6. Expanding your horizons in science and mathematics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palmer, Cynthia E. A.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the 'Expanding Your Horizons in Science and Mathematics' program is to interest young women in grades six through twelve in a variety of careers where mathematics and science are important. Progress in encouraging young women to take courses in mathematics, science, and technological subjects is discussed. Also included are adult, student, and organizational information packets used for 'Expanding Your Horizons' conferences.

  7. Horizon Report: 2009 Economic Development Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Levine, A.; Scott, C.; Smith, R.; Stone, S.

    2009-01-01

    The New Media Consortium's Horizon Project is an ongoing research project that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact in education and other industries around the world over a five-year time period. The chief products of the project are the "Horizon Reports", an annual series of publications that…

  8. The NMC Horizon Report: 2014 Library Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2014-01-01

    The internationally recognized "NMC Horizon Report" series and regional "NMC Technology Outlooks" are part of the NMC Horizon Project, a 12-year effort established in 2002 that annually identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years in every sector of education around the…

  9. Reconceptualizing Knowledge at the Mathematical Horizon

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zazkis, Rina; Mamolo, Ami

    2011-01-01

    This article extends the notion of "knowledge at the mathematical horizon" or "horizon knowledge" introduced by Ball and colleagues as a part of teachers' subject matter knowledge. Our focus is on teachers' mathematical knowledge beyond the school curriculum, that is, on mathematics learnt during undergraduate college or university studies. We…

  10. The Horizon Report: 2010 Museum Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Witchey, H.; Smith, R.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2010-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This volume, the "2010 Horizon…

  11. The NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Museum Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This "2015 Horizon…

  12. Horizon Report: 2010 K-12 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Smith, R.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2010-01-01

    The "Horizon Report" series is the most visible outcome of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, an ongoing research effort established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, research, or creative expression within education around the globe. This volume, the "2010…

  13. Testing General Relativity with the Event Horizon Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benkevitch, Leonid; Fish, V. L.; Johannsen, T.; Akiyama, K.; Broderick, A. E.; Psaltis, D.; Doeleman, S.; Monnier, J. D.; Baron, F.

    2013-01-01

    Strong gravitational lensing of light near black holes is one of the effects predicted by general relativity (GR). Emission close to a black hole will typically be lensed to illuminate the last photon orbit, creating a feature known as the black hole 'shadow' or 'silhouette'. The precise size and shape of the shadow is dependent on black hole mass, spin, and the space-time metric. The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a (sub)mm VLBI network that can achieve Schwarzschild Radius scale resolution on SgrA*, the 4 million solar mass black hole at the Galactic Center. Here we present initial studies of how recent and future EHT observations of SgrA* can be used to test the No-Hair theorem by searching for deviations from the expected shadow morphology. We have developed a pipeline for producing synthetic EHT data sets from black hole emission models using perturbed space-time metrics that violate the No-Hair theorem. Employing imaging and modelfitting algorithms tailored for EHT data, we extract parameters of the black hole shadow. Preliminary results indicate that the EHT can provide a new way to test GR in the strong gravity regime that is complementary to techniques in other fields.

  14. Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tiedeman, Claire R.; Green, Christopher T.

    2013-01-01

    Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (rdss). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of rdss. Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

  15. Predicting ecological effects of pollutants: A role for marine mesocosms

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, T.J.

    1994-12-31

    The major uncertainty in predicting the ecological effects of a pollutant is the relationship between dose and the ecological response. Mesocosms may be used to simulate population-level biological processes and to estimate the nature and shape of dose-related responses to pollutants, for use in predictive evaluations of pollutant impacts. To ensure that responses observed in mesocosm tests are representative it is necessary to confirm that the simulated processes operate at rates similar to those found in the field. Pilot experiments were conducted in small marine mesocosms simulating major processes in two local habitat types: unvegetated sand and sand colonized by the brown macroalga Sargassum. The results showed that for a range of variates (such as the % of egg-bearing harpacticoid copepods, or the chlorophyll a concentration in surface sediments) the mean values for measurements in the tanks over a 9 week period did not consistently converge or diverge from those in the field. Also, for a number of the variates, a modelled decrease of more than about 60% in the mean could be detected with greater than 80% statistical power. This indicates that the effects of a pollutant could be detected with acceptable power. Use of a combination of such variates based on different functional or taxonomic groups for pollutant effects testing could greatly decrease uncertainty about the predicted effects of pollutants discharged to these habitats.

  16. Quantum Phase Transitions and Event Horizons:. Condensed Matter Analogies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapline, George

    2006-07-01

    Although it has been generally believed that classical general relativity is always correct for macroscopic length scales, certain predictions such as event horizons and closed time-like curves are inconsistent with ordinary quantum mechanics. It has recently been pointed out that the event horizon problem can be resolved if space-time undergoes a quantum phase transition as one approaches the surface where general relativity predicts that the redshift becomes infinite. Indeed a thought experiment involving a superfluid with a critical point makes such a suggestion appear plausible. Furthermore the behavior of space-time near an event horizon may resemble quantum phase transitions that have been observed in the laboratory. For example, the phenomenology of meta-magnetic quantum critical points in heavy fermion materials resembles the behavior expected, both in terms of time standing still and the behavior of quantum correlation functions. Martensitic transformations accompanied by non-adiabatic changes in the electronic wave function are also interesting in this connection.

  17. Improved Prediction of the Doppler Effect in TRISO Fuel

    SciTech Connect

    J. Ortensi; A.M. Ougouag

    2009-05-01

    The Doppler feedback mechanism is a major contributor to the passive safety of gas-cooled, graphite-moderated High Temperature Reactors that use fuel based on TRISO particles. It follows that the correct prediction of the magnitude and time-dependence of this feedback effect is essential to the conduct of safety analyses for these reactors. Since the effect is directly dependent on the actual temperature reached by the fuel during transients, the underlying phenomena of heat transfer and temperature rise must be correctly predicted. This paper presents an improved model for the TRISO particle and its thermal behavior during transients. The improved approach incorporates an explicit TRISO heat conduction model to better quantify the time dependence of the temperature in the various layers of the TRISO particle, including its fuel central zone. There follows a better treatment of the Doppler Effect within said fuel zone. The new model is based on a 1-D analytic solution for composite media using the Green’s function technique. The modeling improvement takes advantage of some of the physical behavior of TRISO fuel under irradiation and includes a distinctive look at the physics of the neutronic Doppler Effect. The new methodology has been implemented within the coupled R-Z nodal diffusion code CYNOD-THERMIX. The new model has been applied to the analysis of earthquakes (presented in a companion paper). In this paper, the model is applied to the control rod ejection event, as specified in the OECD PBMR-400 benchmark, but with temperature dependent thermal properties. The results obtained for this transient using the enhanced code are a considerable improvement over the predictions of the original code. The incorporation of the enhanced model shows that the Doppler Effect plays a more significant role than predicted by the original unenhanced model based on the THERMIX homogenized fuel region model. The new model shows that the overall energy generation during the rod

  18. Does prior knowledge of safety effect help to predict how effective a measure will be?

    PubMed

    Elvik, R

    1996-05-01

    Studies evaluating the effects of traffic safety measures are often done for the purpose of predicting the effects of future applications of the measures. The predictive value of evaluation studies is unknown. Some general arguments for and against attributing a general predictive value to the results of evaluation studies are discussed. Predictability is shown to depend on many factors. Meta-analyses of evidence from evaluation studies can be used as a basis for testing the predictive performance of such studies. The predictive performance of studies that have evaluated the safety effects of road lighting and traffic separation is tested. Predictive performance is found to depend mainly on whether the results of evaluation studies are stable over time or exhibit a trend. In the latter case, predictions based on evidence accumulated before the trend became apparent can be very erroneous. It is shown that increasing the amount of evidence that predictions are based on does not necessarily make the predictions more accurate. More research does not always improve predictive performance. PMID:8799438

  19. Better prediction of functional effects for sequence variants

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Elucidating the effects of naturally occurring genetic variation is one of the major challenges for personalized health and personalized medicine. Here, we introduce SNAP2, a novel neural network based classifier that improves over the state-of-the-art in distinguishing between effect and neutral variants. Our method's improved performance results from screening many potentially relevant protein features and from refining our development data sets. Cross-validated on >100k experimentally annotated variants, SNAP2 significantly outperformed other methods, attaining a two-state accuracy (effect/neutral) of 83%. SNAP2 also outperformed combinations of other methods. Performance increased for human variants but much more so for other organisms. Our method's carefully calibrated reliability index informs selection of variants for experimental follow up, with the most strongly predicted half of all effect variants predicted at over 96% accuracy. As expected, the evolutionary information from automatically generated multiple sequence alignments gave the strongest signal for the prediction. However, we also optimized our new method to perform surprisingly well even without alignments. This feature reduces prediction runtime by over two orders of magnitude, enables cross-genome comparisons, and renders our new method as the best solution for the 10-20% of sequence orphans. SNAP2 is available at: https://rostlab.org/services/snap2web Definitions used Delta, input feature that results from computing the difference feature scores for native amino acid and feature scores for variant amino acid; nsSNP, non-synoymous SNP; PMD, Protein Mutant Database; SNAP, Screening for non-acceptable polymorphisms; SNP, single nucleotide polymorphism; variant, any amino acid changing sequence variant. PMID:26110438

  20. Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

  1. Estimation of the Horizon in Photographed Outdoor Scenes by Human and Machine

    PubMed Central

    Herdtweck, Christian; Wallraven, Christian

    2013-01-01

    We present three experiments on horizon estimation. In Experiment 1 we verify the human ability to estimate the horizon in static images from only visual input. Estimates are given without time constraints with emphasis on precision. The resulting estimates are used as baseline to evaluate horizon estimates from early visual processes. Stimuli are presented for only ms and then masked to purge visual short-term memory and enforcing estimates to rely on early processes, only. The high agreement between estimates and the lack of a training effect shows that enough information about viewpoint is extracted in the first few hundred milliseconds to make accurate horizon estimation possible. In Experiment 3 we investigate several strategies to estimate the horizon in the computer and compare human with machine “behavior” for different image manipulations and image scene types. PMID:24349073

  2. Predicting the physical effects of relocating Boston's sewage outfall

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Signell, R.P.; Jenter, H.L.; Blumberg, A.F.

    2000-01-01

    Boston is scheduled to cease discharge of sewage effluent in Boston Harbor in Spring 2000 and begin discharge at a site 14 km offshore in Massachusetts Bay in a water depth of about 30 m. The effects of this outfall relocation on effluent dilution, salinity and circulation are predicted with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The simulations predict that the new bay outfall will greatly decrease effluent concentrations in Boston Harbor (relative to the harbour outfall) and will not significantly change mean effluent concentrations over most of Massachusetts Bay. With the harbour outfall, previous observations and these simulations show that effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% throughout the harbour, with a harbour wide average of 1-2%. With the bay outfall, effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% only within a few km of the new outfall, and harbour concentrations drop to 0??1-0??2%, a 10-fold reduction. During unstratified winter conditions, the local increase in effluent concentration at the bay outfall site is predicted to exist throughout the water column. During stratified summer conditions, however, effluent released at the sea bed rises and is trapped beneath the pycnocline. The local increase in effluent concentration is limited to the lower layer, and as a result, surface layer effluent concentrations in the vicinity of the new outfall site are predicted to decrease (relative to the harbour outfall) during the summer. Slight changes are predicted for the salinity and circulation fields. Removing the fresh water associated with the effluent discharge in Boston Harbor is predicted to increase the mean salinity of the harbour by 0??5 and decrease the mean salinity by 0??10-0??15 within 2-3 km of the outfall. Relative to the existing mean flow, the buoyant discharge at the new outfall is predicted to generate density-driven mean currents of 2-4 cm s-1 that spiral out in a clockwise motion at the surface during winter and at the pycnocline (15-20 m depth

  3. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology. PMID:23687472

  4. ASC Supercomputers Predict Effects of Aging on Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Kubota, A; Reisman, D B; Wolfer, W G

    2005-08-25

    In an extensive molecular dynamics (MD) study of shock compression of aluminum containing such microscopic defects as found in aged plutonium, LLNL scientists have demonstrated that ASC supercomputers live up to their promise as powerful tools to predict aging phenomena in the nuclear stockpile. Although these MD investigations are carried out on material samples containing only about 10 to 40 million atoms, and being not much bigger than a virus particle, they have shown that reliable materials properties and relationships between them can be extracted for density, temperature, pressure, and dynamic strength. This was proven by comparing their predictions with experimental data of the Hugoniot, with dynamic strength inferred from gas-gun experiments, and with the temperatures behind the shock front as calculated with hydro-codes. The effects of microscopic helium bubbles and of radiation-induced dislocation loops and voids on the equation of state were also determined and found to be small and in agreement with earlier theoretical predictions and recent diamond-anvil-cell experiments. However, these microscopic defects play an essential role in correctly predicting the dynamic strength for these nano-crystalline samples. These simulations also prove that the physics involved in shock compression experiments remains the same for macroscopic specimens used in gas-gun experiments down to micrometer samples to be employed in future NIF experiments. Furthermore, a practical way was discovered to reduce plastic instabilities in NIF target materials by introducing finely dispersed defects.

  5. Experimental microcosm study of the effects of Deepwater Horizon MC-252 oil on the geochemistry and microbiology of Gulf Coast sediment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donahoe, R. J.; Bej, A.; Raulerson, A.; Rentschler, E. K.

    2011-12-01

    Microcosm experiments were conducted to examine the impact of oil contamination on Gulf Coast sediment geochemistry and microbial population dynamics. Coastal sediment and seawater were collected from a salt marsh at Bayou la Batre, Alabama, which was not severely impacted by the BP Deepwater Horizon accident of April 2010. Sediment/seawater microcosms were set up in glass jars combusted for 5 hours at 450 degrees C. Non-sterile microcosms spiked with 500 ppm of MC-252 oil were sacrificed in duplicate at various time intervals over a 14 day period to establish a data time series. Sterile controls with and without oil and a non-sterile control without oil were sacrificed in duplicate at 14 days for comparison with the time-series experiments. Solid and aqueous phases were separated by centrifugation and prepared for analysis. Sediment mineralogy was determined using X-ray diffraction and acid-extractable sediment chemistry determined using EPA Method 3051A and ICP-OES analysis. The aqueous phase chemistry was analyzed by ICP-OES and ion chromatography. The mineralogy of the salt marsh sediment is predominantly quartz, but includes reactive phases such as clays (smectite, illite), feldspar, and iron oxide. Iron-bearing clays and iron oxides can serve as electron acceptors for the growth of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria. Microwave digestions of the microcosm substrate samples were performed in triplicate and show no significant variation in major element chemistry over the course of the two week experiment, suggesting that observed temporal trends in aqueous geochemistry may be due to ion exchange processes, rather than mineral dissolution reactions. Microcosm substrate trace element data which indicate possible differences with time are being analyzed for statistical significance. Analysis of aqueous solution geochemistry reveals several interesting temporal trends. Iron and manganese were released to solution after 2 days, suggesting the presence of facultative

  6. Prediction of reinjection effects on the Cerro Prieto geothermal system

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, C.F.; Mangold, D.C.; Doughty, C.; Lippmann, M.J.

    1982-08-10

    The response of the Cerro Prieto geothermal field to different reinjection schemes is predicted using a two-dimensional vertical reservoir model with single- or two-phase flow. The advance of cold fronts and pressure changes in the system associated with the inection operations are computed, taking into consideration the geologic characteristics of the field. The effects of well location, depth, and rates of injection are analyzed. Results indicate that significant pressure maintenance effects may be realized in a carefully designed reinjection operation.

  7. Quasilocal approach to general universal horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maciel, Alan

    2016-05-01

    Theories of gravity with a preferred foliation usually display arbitrarily fast signal propagation, changing the black hole definition. A new inescapable barrier, the universal horizon, has been defined and many static and spherically symmetric examples have been studied in the literature. Here, we translate the usual definition of the universal horizon in terms of an optical scalar built with the preferred flow defined by the preferred spacetime foliation. The new expression has the advantages of being of quasilocal nature and independent of specific spacetime symmetries in order to be well defined. Therefore, we propose it as a definition for general quasilocal universal horizons. Using the new formalism, we show that there is no universal analog of cosmological horizons for Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker models for any scale factor function, and we also state that quasilocal universal horizons are restricted to trapped regions of the spacetime. Using the evolution equation, we analyze the formation of universal horizons under a truncated Hořava-Lifshitz theory, in spherical symmetry, showing the existence of regions in parameter space where the universal horizon formation cannot be smooth from the center, under some physically reasonable assumptions. We conclude with our view on the next steps for the understanding of black holes in nonrelativistic gravity theories.

  8. Production and decay of evolving horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Alex B.; Visser, Matt

    2006-07-01

    We consider a simple physical model for an evolving horizon that is strongly interacting with its environment, exchanging arbitrarily large quantities of matter with its environment in the form of both infalling material and outgoing Hawking radiation. We permit fluxes of both lightlike and timelike particles to cross the horizon, and ask how the horizon grows and shrinks in response to such flows. We place a premium on providing a clear and straightforward exposition with simple formulae. To be able to handle such a highly dynamical situation in a simple manner we make one significant physical restriction—that of spherical symmetry—and two technical mathematical restrictions: (1) we choose to slice the spacetime in such a way that the spacetime foliations (and hence the horizons) are always spherically symmetric. (2) Furthermore, we adopt Painlevé Gullstrand coordinates (which are well suited to the problem because they are nonsingular at the horizon) in order to simplify the relevant calculations. Of course physics results are ultimately independent of the choice of coordinates, but this particular coordinate system yields a clean physical interpretation of the relevant physics. We find particularly simple forms for surface gravity, and for the first and second law of black hole thermodynamics, in this general evolving horizon situation. Furthermore, we relate our results to Hawking's apparent horizon, Ashtekar and co-worker's isolated and dynamical horizons, and Hayward's trapping horizon. The evolving black hole model discussed here will be of interest, both from an astrophysical viewpoint in terms of discussing growing black holes and from a purely theoretical viewpoint in discussing black hole evaporation via Hawking radiation.

  9. Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

    2003-01-01

    The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

  10. Prediction of Relaminarization Effects on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Giel, P. W.

    2001-01-01

    An approach to predicting turbine blade heat transfer when turbulent flow relaminarizes due to strong favorable pressure gradients is described. Relaminarization is more likely to occur on the pressure side of a rotor blade. While stators also have strong favorable pressure gradients, the pressure surface is less likely to become turbulent at low to moderate Reynolds numbers. Accounting for the effects of relaminarization for blade heat transfer can substantially reduce the predicted rotor surface heat transfer. This in turn can lead to reduced rotor cooling requirements. Two-dimensional midspan Navier-Stokes analyses were done for each of eighteen test cases using eleven different turbulence models. Results showed that including relaminarization effects generally improved the agreement with experimental data. The results of this work indicate that relatively small changes in rotor shape can be utilized to extend the likelihood of relaminarization to high Reynolds numbers. Predictions showing how rotor blade heat transfer at a high Reynolds number can be reduced through relaminarization are given.

  11. NEW HORIZONS IN SENSOR DEVELOPMENT

    PubMed Central

    Intille, Stephen S.; Lester, Jonathan; Sallis, James F.; Duncan, Glen

    2011-01-01

    Background Accelerometery and other sensing technologies are important tools for physical activity measurement. Engineering advances have allowed developers to transform clunky, uncomfortable, and conspicuous monitors into relatively small, ergonomic, and convenient research tools. New devices can be used to collect data on overall physical activity and in some cases posture, physiological state, and location, for many days or weeks from subjects during their everyday lives. In this review article, we identify emerging trends in several types of monitoring technologies and gaps in the current state of knowledge. Best practices The only certainty about the future of activity sensing technologies is that researchers must anticipate and plan for change. We propose a set of best practices that may accelerate adoption of new devices and increase the likelihood that data being collected and used today will be compatible with new datasets and methods likely to appear on the horizon. Future directions We describe several technology-driven trends, ranging from continued miniaturization of devices that provide gross summary information about activity levels and energy expenditure, to new devices that provide highly detailed information about the specific type, amount, and location of physical activity. Some devices will take advantage of consumer technologies, such as mobile phones, to detect and respond to physical activity in real time, creating new opportunities in measurement, remote compliance monitoring, data-driven discovery, and intervention. PMID:22157771

  12. [Visual illusions and moving horizon].

    PubMed

    Zhdan'ko, I M; Chulaevskiĭ, A O; Kovalenko, P A

    2012-09-01

    Results of psychological "additional investigation" of the crash of Boeing-737, "Aeroflot-Nord" on 14.09.2008 near Perm are presented. 37 pilots from the one of the leading airline companies sensed the attitude and rolling out the aircraft to the forward flight under the moving horizon with straight display of bank and tangage (view from the aircraft to the ground) in model conditions. 29 pilots (78.4%) made a mistake at determining the roll direction and tangage, they made a mistake at determining the roll direction 61 times (16.4%) and 44 times at determining the tangage direction, in other words they confused left and right bank and also nose-up and nose-down. Visual illusions of mobility of space and handling of ground (instead of aircraft) during the flight were revealed in pilots. These illusions may be the important cause of the following crashes. The necessity of "back" faultless display of bank in all aircrafts of civil aviation and development of computer complex for training of visual spatial orientation is proved. PMID:23156114

  13. Predicting the Spectral Effects of Soils on Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, Patrick D.; King, Bruce Hardison; Riley, Daniel M.

    2014-12-15

    The soiling losses on high concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems may be influenced by the spectral properties of accumulated soil. We predicted the response of an isotype cell to changes in spectral content and reduction in transmission due to soiling using measured UV/vis transmittance through soil films. Artificial soil test blends deposited on glass coupons were used to supply the transmission data, which was then used to calculate the effect on model spectra. Moreover, the wavelength transparency of the test soil was varied by incorporating red and yellow mineral pigments into graded sand. The more spectrally responsive (yellow) soils were predicted to alter the current balance between the top and middle subcells throughout a range of air masses corresponding to daily and seasonal variation.

  14. Predictions For The Effects Of BYORP On 1999 KW4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, Jay; Scheeres, D.

    2009-09-01

    We present an accurate secular theory of the effects of Binary YORP (BYORP) and discuss its implications. The theory represents the solar radiation pressure force, which is responsible for the BYORP effect, as a Fourier series based on the physical properties of the secondary body in a binary asteroid system. The theory averages over the binary orbit and over the heliocentric orbit separately. The theory predicts that the orbit expansion rate is independent of the asteroid's thermal inertia for a near circular orbit, although the evolution of the angular momentum and eccentricity vectors do depend on the thermal inertia. This is similar to the results found for YORP where the spin rate evolution is independent of thermal inertia, but the spin axis orientation evolution is not. The predicted secular rates from the theory can be used to make long term predictions of a binary asteroid system's complete orbital evolution. We have applied the theory to the binary asteroid 1999 KW4 for which we have accurate models. We compute the current growth rate of the semi-major axis to be 5.4 cm/year. The full secular theory was integrated forwards and backwards in time and predicts that the orbit will double in size in roughly 14,000 years and was half of it's current size approximately 20,000 years ago. Assuming that BYORP is active for this system, these results indicates a relatively recent formation for this object. The orbit will expand beyond the Hill sphere roughly 36,000 years from now, yielding a fairly short lifetime. These calculations have not incorporated solar tidal forces, but will in the future. Results of the full orbit evolution for 1999 KW4 and their implications will be presented at the meeting. This work was supported by a grant from NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program.

  15. How to predict the potential effectiveness of communication materials.

    PubMed

    Mercado, C M

    1979-01-01

    The Traveling Experiment (Travelex) is a new communications research method which enables researchers to predict relative effectiveness of communication materials in multilingual, agricultural, rural and personalistic societies. The measuring instrument used is the questionnaire, which can be converted into an interview if the subjects are nonliterate. Field researchers ask subjects either to evaluate instructional materials or to take brief tests in which the materials must be used to find the answers. Research findings indicate that the most effective publication format for attracting rural readers is the comic book with a brightly colored cover. Inside pages, however, have been shown to more effectively deliver instructional messages when they are in black and white. Realistic illustrations are preferred, as are opening sentences relating to the common experience of the target audience. The issues and implications for population control include the following: 1) a 2-sided presentation is most effective--a leaflet on the pill presenting both advantages and disadvantages of the contraceptive is most effective in correcting misconceptions among actual acceptors and, 2) the health appeal is more effective than the economic or status appeal, particularly for gaining acceptance of the IUD. When broadcast or film materials are used it is found that objective and interpretive reports are equally effective in increasing knowledge of family planning of various audiences. The broadcast version of the economic appeal seems to be effective in generating favorable attitudes toward the pill. PMID:12262256

  16. Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

  17. Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS), revision 2.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patterson, W. L.; Hattan, C. P.; Hitney, H. V.; Paulus, R. A.; Barrios, A. E.; Lindem, G. E.; Anderson, K. D.

    1990-02-01

    The Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS) is a system of individual stand-alone IBM/PC-compatible programs that have been designed to assist an engineer in properly assessing electromagnetic propagation effects of the lower atmosphere on proposed radar, electronic warfare, or communication systems. The EREPS models account for effects from optical interference, diffraction, tropospheric scatter, refraction, evaporation and surface-based ducting, and water-vapor absorption under horizontally homogeneous atmospheric conditions. EREPS revision 2.0 is an upgrade to revision 1.0 released in July 1988 (Hitney, 1988). There are two completely new programs in revision 2.0, COVER and PROPH, and a user-callable propagation-factor source code subroutine that may be helpful to anyone who wants to integrate the EREPS propagation model into their own applications program.

  18. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandrolini, L.; Reggiani, U.; Ogunsola, A.

    2007-09-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed.

  19. Prediction of influenza B vaccine effectiveness from sequence data.

    PubMed

    Pan, Yidan; Deem, Michael W

    2016-08-31

    Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of human cases due to influenza B. Influenza B is a single-stranded RNA virus with a high mutation rate, and both prior immune history and vaccination put significant pressure on the virus to evolve. Due to the high rate of viral evolution, the influenza B vaccine component of the annual influenza vaccine is updated, roughly every other year in recent years. To predict when an update to the vaccine is needed, an estimate of expected vaccine effectiveness against a range of viral strains is required. We here introduce a method to measure antigenic distance between the influenza B vaccine and circulating viral strains. The measure correlates well with effectiveness of the influenza B component of the annual vaccine in humans between 1979 and 2014. We discuss how this measure of antigenic distance may be used in the context of annual influenza vaccine design and prediction of vaccine effectiveness. PMID:27473305

  20. Efficient prediction methods for selecting effective siRNA sequences.

    PubMed

    Takasaki, Shigeru

    2010-02-01

    Although short interfering RNA (siRNA) has been widely used for studying gene functions in mammalian cells, its gene silencing efficacy varies markedly and there are only a few consistencies among the recently reported design rules/guidelines for selecting siRNA sequences effective for mammalian genes. Another shortcoming of the previously reported methods is that they cannot estimate the probability that a candidate sequence will silence the target gene. This paper first reviewed the recently reported siRNA design guidelines and clarified the problems concerning the guidelines. It then proposed two prediction methods-Radial Basis Function (RBF) network and decision tree learning-and their combined method for selecting effective siRNA target sequences from many possible candidate sequences. They are quite different from the previous score-based siRNA design techniques and can predict the probability that a candidate siRNA sequence will be effective. The methods imply high estimation accuracy for selecting candidate siRNA sequences. PMID:20022002

  1. Possible Evidence for an Event Horizon in Cyg XR-1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dolan, Joseph F.; Fisher, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The X-ray emitting component in the Cyg XR-1/HDE226868 system is a leading candidate for identification as a stellar-mass sized black hole. The positive identification of a black hole as predicted by general relativity requires the detection of an event horizon surrounding the point singularity. One signature of such an event horizon would be the existence of dying pulse trains emitted by material spiraling into the event horizon from the last stable orbit around the black hole. We observed the Cyg XR-1 system at three different epochs in a 1400 - 3000 A bandpass with 0.1 ms time resolution using the Hubble Space Telescope's High Speed Photometer. Repeated excursions of the detected flux by more than three standard deviations above the mean are present in the UV flux with FWHM 1 - 10 ms. If any of these excursions are pulses of radiation produced in the system (and not just stochastic variability associated with the Poisson distribution of detected photon arrival times), then this short a timescale requires that the pulses originate in the accretion disk around Cyg XR-1. Two series of pulses with characteristics similar to those expected from dying pulse trains were detected in three hours of observation.

  2. Black holes with bottle-shaped horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yu; Teo, Edward

    2016-06-01

    We present a new class of four-dimensional AdS black holes with noncompact event horizons of finite area. The event horizons are topologically spheres with one puncture, with the puncture pushed to infinity in the form of a cusp. Because of the shape of their event horizons, we call such black holes "black bottles." The solution was obtained as a special case of the Plebański-Demiański solution, and may describe either static or rotating black bottles. For certain ranges of parameters, an acceleration horizon may also appear in the space-time. We study the full parameter space of the solution, and the various limiting cases that arise. In particular, we show how the rotating black hole recently discovered by Klemm arises as a special limit.

  3. Horizon Entropy from Quantum Gravity Condensates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oriti, Daniele; Pranzetti, Daniele; Sindoni, Lorenzo

    2016-05-01

    We construct condensate states encoding the continuum spherically symmetric quantum geometry of a horizon in full quantum gravity, i.e., without any classical symmetry reduction, in the group field theory formalism. Tracing over the bulk degrees of freedom, we show how the resulting reduced density matrix manifestly exhibits a holographic behavior. We derive a complete orthonormal basis of eigenstates for the reduced density matrix of the horizon and use it to compute the horizon entanglement entropy. By imposing consistency with the horizon boundary conditions and semiclassical thermodynamical properties, we recover the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for any value of the Immirzi parameter. Our analysis supports the equivalence between the von Neumann (entanglement) entropy interpretation and the Boltzmann (statistical) one.

  4. Horizon Entropy from Quantum Gravity Condensates.

    PubMed

    Oriti, Daniele; Pranzetti, Daniele; Sindoni, Lorenzo

    2016-05-27

    We construct condensate states encoding the continuum spherically symmetric quantum geometry of a horizon in full quantum gravity, i.e., without any classical symmetry reduction, in the group field theory formalism. Tracing over the bulk degrees of freedom, we show how the resulting reduced density matrix manifestly exhibits a holographic behavior. We derive a complete orthonormal basis of eigenstates for the reduced density matrix of the horizon and use it to compute the horizon entanglement entropy. By imposing consistency with the horizon boundary conditions and semiclassical thermodynamical properties, we recover the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for any value of the Immirzi parameter. Our analysis supports the equivalence between the von Neumann (entanglement) entropy interpretation and the Boltzmann (statistical) one. PMID:27284642

  5. Using resilience to predict the effects of disturbance

    PubMed Central

    Nattrass, Stuart; Lusseau, David

    2016-01-01

    Animal behaviour emerges from a complex interaction between an individual’s needs, life history strategies and the varying local environment. This environment is increasingly disturbed as human activity encroaches on previously unexposed regions. This disturbance can have different effects on individual animals or populations depending on their behavioural strategies. Here, we examine a means of predicting the resilience of individuals or populations to unanticipated disturbances, and we find that resilience that can be estimated from routinely collected behavioural observations is a good predictor of how rapidly an individual’s expected behaviour is returned to following a perturbation, and correlates strongly with how much population abundance changes following a disturbance. PMID:27145918

  6. Using Effective Subnetworks to Predict Selected Properties of Gene Networks

    PubMed Central

    Gunaratne, Gemunu H.; Gunaratne, Preethi H.; Seemann, Lars; Török, Andrei

    2010-01-01

    Background Difficulties associated with implementing gene therapy are caused by the complexity of the underlying regulatory networks. The forms of interactions between the hundreds of genes, proteins, and metabolites in these networks are not known very accurately. An alternative approach is to limit consideration to genes on the network. Steady state measurements of these influence networks can be obtained from DNA microarray experiments. However, since they contain a large number of nodes, the computation of influence networks requires a prohibitively large set of microarray experiments. Furthermore, error estimates of the network make verifiable predictions impossible. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we propose an alternative approach. Rather than attempting to derive an accurate model of the network, we ask what questions can be addressed using lower dimensional, highly simplified models. More importantly, is it possible to use such robust features in applications? We first identify a small group of genes that can be used to affect changes in other nodes of the network. The reduced effective empirical subnetwork (EES) can be computed using steady state measurements on a small number of genetically perturbed systems. We show that the EES can be used to make predictions on expression profiles of other mutants, and to compute how to implement pre-specified changes in the steady state of the underlying biological process. These assertions are verified in a synthetic influence network. We also use previously published experimental data to compute the EES associated with an oxygen deprivation network of E.coli, and use it to predict gene expression levels on a double mutant. The predictions are significantly different from the experimental results for less than of genes. Conclusions/Significance The constraints imposed by gene expression levels of mutants can be used to address a selected set of questions about a gene network. PMID:20949025

  7. Effective soil hydraulic conductivity predicted with the maximum power principle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westhoff, Martijn; Erpicum, Sébastien; Archambeau, Pierre; Pirotton, Michel; Zehe, Erwin; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Drainage of water in soils happens for a large extent through preferential flowpaths, but these subsurface flowpaths are extremely difficult to observe or parameterize in hydrological models. To potentially overcome this problem, thermodynamic optimality principles have been suggested to predict effective parametrization of these (sub-grid) structures, such as the maximum entropy production principle or the equivalent maximum power principle. These principles have been successfully applied to predict heat transfer from the Equator to the Poles, or turbulent heat fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere. In these examples, the effective flux adapts itself to its boundary condition by adapting its effective conductance through the creation of e.g. convection cells. However, flow through porous media, such as soils, can only quickly adapt its effective flow conductance by creation of preferential flowpaths, but it is unknown if this is guided by the aim to create maximum power. Here we show experimentally that this is indeed the case: In the lab, we created a hydrological analogue to the atmospheric model dealing with heat transport between Equator and poles. The experimental setup consists of two freely draining reservoirs connected with each other by a confined aquifer. By adding water to only one reservoir, a potential difference will build up until a steady state is reached. From the steady state potential difference and the observed flow through the aquifer, and effective hydraulic conductance can be determined. This observed conductance does correspond to the one maximizing power of the flux through the confined aquifer. Although this experiment is done in an idealized setting, it opens doors for better parameterizing hydrological models. Furthermore, it shows that hydraulic properties of soils are not static, but they change with changing boundary conditions. A potential limitation to the principle is that it only applies to steady state conditions

  8. Hafnium oxide nanoparticles: toward an in vitro predictive biological effect?

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Hafnium oxide, NBTXR3 nanoparticles were designed for high dose energy deposition within cancer cells when exposed to ionizing radiation. The purpose of this study was to assess the possibility of predicting in vitro the biological effect of NBTXR3 nanoparticles when exposed to ionizing radiation. Methods Cellular uptake of NBTXR3 nanoparticles was assessed in a panel of human cancer cell lines (radioresistant and radiosensitive) by transmission electron microscopy. The radioenhancement of NBTXR3 nanoparticles was measured by the clonogenic survival assay. Results NBTXR3 nanoparticles were taken up by cells in a concentration dependent manner, forming clusters in the cytoplasm. Differential nanoparticle uptake was observed between epithelial and mesenchymal or glioblastoma cell lines. The dose enhancement factor increased with increase NBTXR3 nanoparticle concentration and radiation dose. Beyond a minimum number of clusters per cell, the radioenhancement of NBTXR3 nanoparticles could be estimated from the radiation dose delivered and the radiosensitivity of the cancer cell lines. Conclusions Our preliminary results suggest a predictable in vitro biological effect of NBTXR3 nanoparticles exposed to ionizing radiation. PMID:24981953

  9. Prediction of the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Powder Insulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Lingxue; Park, Jiho; Lee, Cheonkyu; Jeong, Sangkwon

    The powder insulation method is widely used in structural and cryogenic systems such as transportation and storage tanks of cryogenic fluids. The powder insulation layer is constructed by small particle powder with light weight and some residual gas with high porosity. So far, many experiments have been carried out to test the thermal performance of various kinds of powder, including expanded perlite, glass microspheres, expanded polystyrene (EPS). However, it is still difficult to predict the thermal performance of powder insulation by calculation due to the complicated geometries, including various particle shapes, wide powder diameter distribution, and various pore sizes. In this paper, the effective thermal conductivity of powder insulation has been predicted based on an effective thermal conductivity calculationmodel of porous packed beds. The calculation methodology was applied to the insulation system with expanded perlite, glass microspheres and EPS beads at cryogenic temperature and various vacuum pressures. The calculation results were compared with previous experimental data. Moreover, additional tests were carried out at cryogenic temperature in this research. The fitting equations of the deformation factor of the area-contact model are presented for various powders. The calculation results show agood agreement with the experimental results.

  10. Apparent violation of the principle of equivalence and killing horizons. [for relativity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zimmerman, R. L.; Farhoosh, H.

    1980-01-01

    By means of the principle of equivalence the qualitative behavior of the Schwarzschild horizon about a uniformly accelerating particle was deduced. This result is confirmed for an exact solution of a uniformly accelerating object in the limit of small accelerations. For large accelerations the Schwarzschild horizon appears to violate the qualitative behavior established via the principle of equivalence. When similar arguments are extended to an observable such as the red shift between two observers, there is no departure from the results expected from the principle of equivalence. The resolution of the paradox is brought about by a compensating effect due to the Rindler horizon.

  11. Infrared horizon sensor modeling for attitude determination and control - Analysis and mission experience

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singhal, S. P.; Phenneger, M. C.; Stengle, T. H.

    1986-01-01

    This paper summarizes the work of the Flight Dynamics Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center in analyzing and evaluating the performance of a variety of infrared horizon sensors on 12 spaceflight missions from 1973 to 1984. Earth infrared radiance modeling, using the LOWTRAN 5 Program, and the Horizon Radiance Modeling Utility are also described. Mission data are presented for Magsat and the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite, with analysis to assess the sensor modeling as well as cloud and sun interference effects. Recommendations are made regarding future directions for the infrared horizon technology.

  12. Hawking Radiation from Horizons of Reissner Nordström de Sitter Black Hole with a Global Monopole via Anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shi-Wu; Liu, Xiong-Wei; Lin, Kai; Zeng, Xiao-Xiong; Yang, Shu-Zheng

    2008-08-01

    Hawking radiation from cosmological horizon and event horizon of the Reissner Nordström de Sitter black hole with a global monopole is studied via a new method that was propounded by Robinson and Wilzek and elaborated by Banerjee and Kulkarni. The results show that the gauge current and energy-momentum tensor fluxes, which required keeping gauge covariance and general coordinate invariance at the quantum level in the effective field theory, are exactly equivalent to those of Hawking radiation from the event horizon and the cosmological horizon, respectively.

  13. Pedotransfer functions for Irish soils - estimation of bulk density (ρb) per horizon type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, B.; Simo, I.; Sills, P.; Creamer, R. E.

    2016-01-01

    Soil bulk density is a key property in defining soil characteristics. It describes the packing structure of the soil and is also essential for the measurement of soil carbon stock and nutrient assessment. In many older surveys this property was neglected and in many modern surveys this property is omitted due to cost both in laboratory and labour and in cases where the core method cannot be applied. To overcome these oversights pedotransfer functions are applied using other known soil properties to estimate bulk density. Pedotransfer functions have been derived from large international data sets across many studies, with their own inherent biases, many ignoring horizonation and depth variances. Initially pedotransfer functions from the literature were used to predict different horizon type bulk densities using local known bulk density data sets. Then the best performing of the pedotransfer functions were selected to recalibrate and then were validated again using the known data. The predicted co-efficient of determination was 0.5 or greater in 12 of the 17 horizon types studied. These new equations allowed gap filling where bulk density data were missing in part or whole soil profiles. This then allowed the development of an indicative soil bulk density map for Ireland at 0-30 and 30-50 cm horizon depths. In general the horizons with the largest known data sets had the best predictions, using the recalibrated and validated pedotransfer functions.

  14. Pedotransfer functions for Irish soils - estimation of bulk density (ρb) per horizon type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, B.; Simo, I.; Sills, P.; Creamer, R. E.

    2015-10-01

    Soil bulk density is a key property in defining soil characteristics. It describes the packing structure of the soil and is also essential for the measurement of soil carbon stock and nutrient assessment. In many older surveys this property was neglected and in many modern surveys this property is omitted due to cost both in laboratory and labour and in cases where the core method cannot be applied. To overcome these oversights pedotransfer functions are applied using other known soil properties to estimate bulk density. Pedotransfer functions have been derived from large international datasets across many studies, with their own inherent biases, many ignoring horizonation and depth variances. Initially pedotransfer functions from the literature were used to predict different horizon types using local known bulk density datasets. Then the best performing of the pedotransfer functions, were selected to recalibrate and then were validated again using the known data. The predicted co-efficient of determination was 0.5 or greater in 12 of the 17 horizon types studied. These new equations allowed gap filling where bulk density data was missing in part or whole soil profiles. This then allowed the development of an indicative soil bulk density map for Ireland at 0-30 and 30-50 cm horizon depths. In general the horizons with the largest known datasets had the best predictions, using the recalibrated and validated pedotransfer functions.

  15. New Horizons in Enhancing the Proliferation and Differentiation of Neural Stem Cells Using Stimulatory Effects of the Short Time Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation.

    PubMed

    Eghlidospour, M; Mortazavi, S M J; Yousefi, F; Mortazavi, S A R

    2015-09-01

    Mobile phone use and wireless communication technology have grown explosively over the past decades. This rapid growth has caused widespread global concern about the potential detrimental effects of this technology on human health. Stem cells generate specialized cell types of the tissue in which they reside through normal differentiation pathways. Considering the undeniable importance of stem cells in modern medicine, numerous studies have been performed on the effects of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation on cellular processes such as: proliferation, differentiation, cell cycle and DNA repair processes. We have conducted extensive studies on beneficial (stimulatory) or detrimental biological effects of exposure to different sources of electromagnetic fields such as mobile phones, mobile phone base stations, mobile phone jammers, radar systems, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems and dentistry cavitrons over the past years. In this article, recent studies on the biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation in the range of radiofrequency (RF) on some important features of stem cells such as their proliferation and differentiation are reviewed. Studies reviewed in this paper indicate that the stimulatory or inhibitory effects of RF radiation on the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells depend on various factors such as the biological systems, experiment conditions, the frequency and intensity of RF and the duration of exposure. PMID:26396965

  16. New Horizons in Enhancing the Proliferation and Differentiation of Neural Stem Cells Using Stimulatory Effects of the Short Time Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Eghlidospour, M.; Mortazavi, S. M. J.; Yousefi, F.; Mortazavi, S. A. R.

    2015-01-01

    Mobile phone use and wireless communication technology have grown explosively over the past decades. This rapid growth has caused widespread global concern about the potential detrimental effects of this technology on human health. Stem cells generate specialized cell types of the tissue in which they reside through normal differentiation pathways. Considering the undeniable importance of stem cells in modern medicine, numerous studies have been performed on the effects of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation on cellular processes such as: proliferation, differentiation, cell cycle and DNA repair processes. We have conducted extensive studies on beneficial (stimulatory) or detrimental biological effects of exposure to different sources of electromagnetic fields such as mobile phones, mobile phone base stations, mobile phone jammers, radar systems, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems and dentistry cavitrons over the past years. In this article, recent studies on the biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation in the range of radiofrequency (RF) on some important features of stem cells such as their proliferation and differentiation are reviewed. Studies reviewed in this paper indicate that the stimulatory or inhibitory effects of RF radiation on the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells depend on various factors such as the biological systems, experiment conditions, the frequency and intensity of RF and the duration of exposure. PMID:26396965

  17. Event horizon scale emission models for Sagittarius A*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dexter, J.

    2014-05-01

    Very long baseline interferometry observations at millimeter wavelengths have detected source structure in Sgr A* on event horizon scales. Near-infrared interferometry will achieve similar resolution in the next few years. These experiments provide an unprecedented opportunity to explore strong gravity around black holes, but interpreting the data requires physical modeling. I discuss the calculation of images, spectra, and light curves from relativistic MHD simulations of black hole accretion. The models provide an excellent description of current observations, and predict that we may be on the verge of detecting a black hole shadow, which would constitute the first direct evidence for the existence of black holes.

  18. Unified first law and the thermodynamics of the apparent horizon in the FRW universe

    SciTech Connect

    Cai Ronggen; Cao Liming

    2007-03-15

    In this paper we revisit the relation between the Friedmann equations and the first law of thermodynamics. We find that the unified first law first proposed by Hayward to treat the outertrapping horizon of a dynamical black hole can be used to the apparent horizon (a kind of inner trapping horizon in the context of the FRW cosmology) of the FRW universe. We discuss three kinds of gravity theorties: Einstein theory, Lovelock thoery, and scalar-tensor theory. In Einstein theory, the first law of thermodynamics is always satisfied on the apparent horizon. In Lovelock theory, treating the higher derivative terms as an effective energy-momentum tensor, we find that this method can give the same entropy formula for the apparent horizon as that of black hole horizon. This implies that the Clausius relation holds for the Lovelock theory. In scalar-tensor gravity, we find, by using the same procedure, the Clausius relation no longer holds. This indicates that the apparent horizon of the FRW universe in the scalar-tensor gravity corresponds to a system of nonequilibrium thermodynamics. We show this point by using the method developed recently by Eling et al. for dealing with the f(R) gravity.

  19. A visual horizon affects steering responses during flight in fruit flies.

    PubMed

    Caballero, Jorge; Mazo, Chantell; Rodriguez-Pinto, Ivan; Theobald, Jamie C

    2015-09-01

    To navigate well through three-dimensional environments, animals must in some way gauge the distances to objects and features around them. Humans use a variety of visual cues to do this, but insects, with their small size and rigid eyes, are constrained to a more limited range of possible depth cues. For example, insects attend to relative image motion when they move, but cannot change the optical power of their eyes to estimate distance. On clear days, the horizon is one of the most salient visual features in nature, offering clues about orientation, altitude and, for humans, distance to objects. We set out to determine whether flying fruit flies treat moving features as farther off when they are near the horizon. Tethered flies respond strongly to moving images they perceive as close. We measured the strength of steering responses while independently varying the elevation of moving stimuli and the elevation of a virtual horizon. We found responses to vertical bars are increased by negative elevations of their bases relative to the horizon, closely correlated with the inverse of apparent distance. In other words, a bar that dips far below the horizon elicits a strong response, consistent with using the horizon as a depth cue. Wide-field motion also had an enhanced effect below the horizon, but this was only prevalent when flies were additionally motivated with hunger. These responses may help flies tune behaviors to nearby objects and features when they are too far off for motion parallax. PMID:26232414

  20. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    SciTech Connect

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-07-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.

  1. A receding horizon scheme for discrete-time polytopic linear parameter varying systems in networked architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franzè, Giuseppe; Lucia, Walter; Tedesco, Francesco

    2014-12-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to address regulation problems for constrained polytopic Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems subject to input and state constraints in which both plant measurements and command signals in the loop are sent through communication channels subject to time-varying delays (Networked Control System (NCS)). The results here proposed represent a significant extension to the LPV framework of a recent Receding Horizon Control (RHC) scheme developed for the so-called robust case. By exploiting the parameter availability, the pre-computed sequences of one- step controllable sets inner approximations are less conservative than the robust counterpart. The resulting framework guarantees asymptotic stability and constraints fulfilment regardless of plant uncertainties and time-delay occurrences. Finally, experimental results on a laboratory two-tank test-bed show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  2. Perturbations of near-horizon geometries and instabilities of Myers-Perry black holes

    SciTech Connect

    Durkee, Mark N.; Reall, Harvey S.

    2011-05-15

    It is shown that the equations governing linearized gravitational (or electromagnetic) perturbations of the near-horizon geometry of any known extreme vacuum black hole (allowing for a cosmological constant) can be Kaluza-Klein reduced to give the equation of motion of a charged scalar field in AdS{sub 2} with an electric field. One can define an effective Breitenloehner-Freedman bound for such a field. We conjecture that if a perturbation preserves certain symmetries then a violation of this bound should imply an instability of the full black hole solution. Evidence in favor of this conjecture is provided by the extreme Kerr solution and extreme cohomogeneity-1 Myers-Perry solution. In the latter case, we predict an instability in seven or more dimensions and, in five dimensions, we present results for operator conformal weights assuming the existence of a conformal field theory dual. We sketch a proof of our conjecture for scalar field perturbations.

  3. Atmospheric Results from the MGS Horizon Science Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, T. Z.; Murphy, J. R.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    1999-01-01

    The Horizon Science Experiment (HORSE) utilizes the Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly (MHSA) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) orbiter to measure 15-micron band thermal emission from the Martian atmosphere. During the first two phases of aerobraking, from September 1997 to May 1998, and from September 1998 to March 1999, one of the four MGS quadrants was pointed well onto the planet consistently during the near-periapsis aerobraking passes, allowing the device to obtain data on the latitudinal variation of middle atmospheric temperature (0.2 - 2.0 mbar). Of particular interest during the first phase (L(sub s) = 182 - 300 deg) were the effects of a prominent dust storm at L(sub s) =224 deg, and wavelike behavior in the strong temperature gradient near the north polar cap. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  4. New perspectives for European climate services: HORIZON2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruning, Claus; Tilche, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    The developing of new end-to-end climate services was one of the core priorities of 7th Framework for Research and Technological Development of the European Commission and will become one of the key strategic priorities of Societal Challenge 5 of HORIZON2020 (the new EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020). Results should increase the competitiveness of European businesses, and the ability of regional and national authorities to make effective decisions in climate-sensitive sectors. In parallel, the production of new tailored climate information should strengthen the resilience of the European society to climate change. In this perspective the strategy to support and foster the underpinning science for climate services in HORIZON2020 will be presented.

  5. Predicting the Spectral Effects of Soils on Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Burton, Patrick D.; King, Bruce Hardison; Riley, Daniel M.

    2014-12-15

    The soiling losses on high concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems may be influenced by the spectral properties of accumulated soil. We predicted the response of an isotype cell to changes in spectral content and reduction in transmission due to soiling using measured UV/vis transmittance through soil films. Artificial soil test blends deposited on glass coupons were used to supply the transmission data, which was then used to calculate the effect on model spectra. Moreover, the wavelength transparency of the test soil was varied by incorporating red and yellow mineral pigments into graded sand. The more spectrally responsive (yellow) soils were predictedmore » to alter the current balance between the top and middle subcells throughout a range of air masses corresponding to daily and seasonal variation.« less

  6. Biophysical Assessment and Predicted Thermophysiologic Effects of Body Armor

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Adam W.; Gonzalez, Julio A.; Karis, Anthony J.; Xu, Xiaojiang

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Military personnel are often required to wear ballistic protection in order to defend against enemies. However, this added protection increases mass carried and imposes additional thermal burden on the individual. Body armor (BA) is known to reduce combat casualties, but the effects of BA mass and insulation on the physical performance of soldiers are less well documented. Until recently, the emphasis has been increasing personal protection, with little consideration of the adverse impacts on human performance. Objective The purpose of this work was to use sweating thermal manikin and mathematical modeling techniques to quantify the tradeoff between increased BA protection, the accompanying mass, and thermal effects on human performance. Methods Using a sweating thermal manikin, total insulation (IT, clo) and vapor permeability indexes (im) were measured for a baseline clothing ensemble with and without one of seven increasingly protective U.S. Army BA configurations. Using mathematical modeling, predictions were made of thermal impact on humans wearing each configuration while working in hot/dry (desert), hot/humid (jungle), and temperate environmental conditions. Results In nearly still air (0.4 m/s), IT ranged from 1.57 to 1.63 clo and im from 0.35 to 0.42 for the seven BA conditions, compared to IT and im values of 1.37 clo and 0.45 respectively, for the baseline condition (no BA). Conclusion Biophysical assessments and predictive modeling show a quantifiable relationship exists among increased protection and increased thermal burden and decreased work capacity. This approach enables quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between ballistic protection, thermal-work strain, and physical work performance. PMID:26200906

  7. On the Bartnik mass of apparent horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantoulidis, Christos; Schoen, Richard

    2015-10-01

    In this paper we characterize the intrinsic geometry of apparent horizons (outermost marginally outer trapped surfaces) in asymptotically flat spacetimes; that is, the Riemannian metrics on the two sphere which can arise. Furthermore we determine the minimal ADM mass of a spacetime containing such an apparent horizon. The results are conveniently formulated in terms of the quasi-local mass introduced by Bartnik (1989 Phys. Rev. Lett. 62 2346-8). The Hawking mass provides a lower bound for Bartnik’s quasilocal mass on apparent horizons by way of Penrose’s conjecture on time symmetric slices, proven in 1997 by Huisken and Ilmanen (2001 J. Differ. Geom. 59 353-437) and in full generality in 1999 by Bray (2001 J. Differ. Geom. 59 177-267). We compute Bartnik’s mass for all non-degenerate apparent horizons and show that it coincides with the Hawking mass. As a corollary we disprove a conjecture due to Gibbons in the spirit of Thorne’s hoop conjecture (Gibbons 2009 arXiv:0903.1580), and construct a new large class of examples of apparent horizons with the integral of the negative part of the Gauss curvature arbitrarily large.

  8. Star-Paths, Stones and Horizon Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brady, Bernadette

    2015-05-01

    Archaeoastronomers tend to approach ancient monuments focusing on the landscape and the horizon calendar events of sun and moon and, due to problems with precession, generally ignore the movement of the stars. However, locating the position of solar calendar points on the horizon can have other uses apart from calendar and/or cosmological purposes. This paper firstly suggests that the stars do not need to be ignored. By considering the evidence of the Phaenomena, a sky poem by Aratus of Soli, a third century BC Greek poet, and his use of second millennium BC star lore fragments, this paper argues that the stars were a part of the knowledge of horizon astronomy. Aratus' poem implied that the horizon astronomy of the late Neolithic and Bronze Age periods included knowledge of star-paths or 'linear constellations' that were defined by particular horizon calendar events and other azimuths. Knowledge of such star-paths would have enabled navigation and orientation, and by using permanent markers, constructed or natural, to define these paths, they were immune to precession as the stones could redefine a star-path for a future generation. Finally the paper presents other possible intentions behind the diverse orientation of passage tombs and some megalithic sites.

  9. A multiple endpoint analysis of the effects of chronic exposure to sediment contaminated with Deepwater Horizon oil on juvenile Southern flounder and their associated microbiomes.

    PubMed

    Brown-Peterson, Nancy J; Krasnec, Michelle; Takeshita, Ryan; Ryan, Caitlin N; Griffitt, Kimberly J; Lay, Claire; Mayer, Gregory D; Bayha, Keith M; Hawkins, William E; Lipton, Ian; Morris, Jeffrey; Griffitt, Robert J

    2015-08-01

    Exposure to oiled sediments can negatively impact the health of fish species. Here, we examine the effects of chronic exposure of juvenile southern flounder, Paralichthys lethostigma, to a sediment-oil mixture. Oil:sediment mixtures are persistent over time and can become bioavailable following sediment perturbation or resuspension. Juvenile flounder were exposed for 32 days under controlled laboratory conditions to five concentrations of naturally weathered Macondo MC252 oil mixed into uncontaminated, field-collected sediments. The percent composition of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of the weathered oil did not change after mixing with the sediment. Spiked exposure sediments contained 0.04-395mg/kg tPAH50 (sum of 50 individual PAH concentration measurements). Mortality increased with both exposure duration and concentration of sediment-associated PAHs, and flounder exposed to concentrations above 8mg/kg tPAH50 showed significantly reduced growth over the course of the experiment. Evident histopathologic changes were observed in liver and gill tissues of fish exposed to more than 8mg/kg tPAH50. All fish at these concentrations showed hepatic intravascular congestion, macrovesicular hepatic vacoulation, telangiectasia of secondary lamellae, and lamellar epithelial proliferation in gill tissues. Dose-dependent upregulation of Cyp1a expression in liver tissues was observed. Taxonomic analysis of gill and intestinal commensal bacterial assemblages showed that exposure to oiled sediments led to distinct shifts in commensal bacterial population structures. These data show that chronic exposure to environmentally-relevant concentrations of oiled sediments produces adverse effects in flounder at multiple biological levels. PMID:26092636

  10. Effective impedance for predicting the existence of surface states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Meng; Huang, Xueqin; Fang, Anan; Chan, C. T.

    2016-03-01

    We build an effective impedance for two-dimensional (2D) photonic crystals (PCs) comprising a rectangular lattice of dielectric cylinders with the incident electric field polarized along the axis of the cylinders. In particular, we discuss the feasibility of constructing an effective impedance for the case where the Bloch wave vector is far away from the center of Brillouin zone, where the optical response of the PC is necessarily anisotropic, and hence the effective description becomes inevitably angle dependent. We employ the scattering theory and treat the 2D system as a stack of 1D arrays. We consider only the zero-order interlayer diffraction, and all the higher order diffraction terms of interlayer scattering are ignored. This approximation works well when the higher order diffraction terms are all evanescent waves and the interlayer distance is far enough for them to decay out. Scattering theory enables the calculation of transmission and reflection coefficients of a finite-sized slab, and we extract the effective parameters such as the effective impedance (Ze) and the effective refractive index (ne) using a parameter retrieval method. We note that ne is uniquely defined only in a very limited region of the reciprocal space. (nek0a ≪1 , where k0 is the wave vector inside the vacuum and a is thickness of the slab for retrieval), but Ze is uniquely defined and has a well-defined meaning inside a much larger domain in the reciprocal space. For a lossless system, the effective impedance Ze is purely real for the pass band and purely imaginary in the band gaps. Using the sign of the imaginary part of Ze, we can classify the band gaps into two groups, and this classification explains why there is usually no surface state on the boundary of typical fully gapped PCs composed of a lattice of dielectric cylinders. This effective medium approach also allows us to predict the dispersion of surface states even when the surface wave vectors are well beyond the zone