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Sample records for prediction horizon effects

  1. Prediction horizon effects on stochastic modelling hints for neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Drossu, R.; Obradovic, Z.

    1995-12-31

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between stochastic models and neural network (NN) approaches to time series modelling. Experiments on a complex real life prediction problem (entertainment video traffic) indicate that prior knowledge can be obtained through stochastic analysis both with respect to an appropriate NN architecture as well as to an appropriate sampling rate, in the case of a prediction horizon larger than one. An improvement of the obtained NN predictor is also proposed through a bias removal post-processing, resulting in much better performance than the best stochastic model.

  2. Stable predictive control horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Raúl; Favela, Antonio; Raimondi, Angelo; Nevado, Antonio; Requena, Ricardo; Beltrán-Carbajal, Francisco

    2012-04-01

    The stability theory of predictive and adaptive predictive control for processes of linear and stable nature is based on the hypothesis of a physically realisable driving desired trajectory (DDT). The formal theoretical verification of this hypothesis is trivial for processes with a stable inverse, but it is not for processes with an unstable inverse. The extended strategy of predictive control was developed with the purpose of overcoming methodologically this stability problem and it has delivered excellent performance and stability in its industrial applications given a suitable choice of the prediction horizon. From a theoretical point of view, the existence of a prediction horizon capable of ensuring stability for processes with an unstable inverse was proven in the literature. However, no analytical solution has been found for the determination of the prediction horizon values which guarantee stability, in spite of the theoretical and practical interest of this matter. This article presents a new method able to determine the set of prediction horizon values which ensure stability under the extended predictive control strategy formulation and a particular performance criterion for the design of the DDT generically used in many industrial applications. The practical application of this method is illustrated by means of simulation examples.

  3. Prediction of over-the-horizon radar clutter using the clutter effects model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauer, Carl; Nickisch, L. J.; Wortman, William

    1998-07-01

    We have developed an over-the-horizon radar (OTHR ) clutter prediction model to better define equatorial clutter environments. This physics-based model is referred to as the clutter effects model, or CLEM. It is nominally configured toward simulation of the Navy's Relocatable OTHR (ROTHR). Radar signal propagation geometry is computed by ray tracing through a global ionosphere model (driven by geophysical conditions, time, and location). The equatorial ionosphere has high levels of field-aligned irregularities which produce strong clutter environments for OTHR. Strengths of modeled ionospheric irregularities are derived from transionospheric scintillation measurement data. Clutter Doppler and delay spreading is analyzed using multiple phase screen forward diffraction techniques. Technical background on an earlier version of CLEM, which performed three-dimensional (3-D) ray tracing, is given by Lauer et al. [1995]. The current version, which is under discussion here, has been sped up through the use of 2-D ray tracing and substitution of a simpler spectral form for the signal delay-Doppler spectrum; however, the reader may refer to Lauer et al [1995] for background on various aspects of the theory which still pertain, including phase diffraction propagation effects, absorption calculations, and ionospheric structure predictions. This paper describes CLEM models and compares CLEM predictions with clutter measurement data for specific cases.

  4. Lagrangian Predictive Skill Assessment for the Deepwater Horizon Spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipphardt, B. L.; Huntley, H. S.; Sulman, M.; Kirwan, A. D.

    2011-12-01

    The explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform produced enormous human, ecological, and economic impacts. At the same time this disaster provided an unprecedented amount of Lagrangian information on ocean processes, including a large number of surface and near-surface drifters deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as remotely sensed images of the surface oil slick. In addition several global and regional ocean model predictions were used to forecast the spill movements. These models generally exhibited large variations in the mesoscale flow near the Deepwater Horizon site, even though they all assimilated similar sets of ocean observations. This provides a unique opportunity to thoroughly assess model Lagrangian predictive skill. Here, the predictive skill of one model, a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), is evaluated using data from more than 80 drifter trajectories in the northern Gulf of Mexico. These trajectories are compared with maps of Lagrangian coherent structures, computed from near-surface model velocities, to determine whether the observations are consistent with the larger scale transport structure predicted by the model. We also discuss new metrics to assess model Lagrangian predictive skill of the plume movement.

  5. Optimal dosing of cancer chemotherapy using model predictive control and moving horizon state/parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tao; Kirkby, Norman F; Jena, Raj

    2012-12-01

    Model predictive control (MPC), originally developed in the community of industrial process control, is a potentially effective approach to optimal scheduling of cancer therapy. The basis of MPC is usually a state-space model (a system of ordinary differential equations), whereby existing studies usually assume that the entire states can be directly measured. This paper aims to demonstrate that when the system states are not fully measurable, in conjunction with model parameter discrepancy, MPC is still a useful method for cancer treatment. This aim is achieved through the application of moving horizon estimation (MHE), an optimisation-based method to jointly estimate the system states and parameters. The effectiveness of the MPC-MHE scheme is illustrated through scheduling the dose of tamoxifen for simulated tumour-bearing patients, and the impact of estimation horizon and magnitude of parameter discrepancy is also investigated. PMID:22739208

  6. Model predictive torque control with an extended prediction horizon for electrical drive systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengxiang; Zhang, Zhenbin; Kennel, Ralph; Rodríguez, José

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a model predictive torque control method for electrical drive systems. A two-step prediction horizon is achieved by considering the reduction of the torque ripples. The electromagnetic torque and the stator flux error between predicted values and the references, and an over-current protection are considered in the cost function design. The best voltage vector is selected by minimising the value of the cost function, which aims to achieve a low torque ripple in two intervals. The study is carried out experimentally. The results show that the proposed method achieves good performance in both steady and transient states.

  7. Planning horizon for a predictive optimal controller for thermal energy storage systems

    SciTech Connect

    Krarti, M.; Henze, G.P.; Bell, D.

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a detailed simulation analysis to determine the planning horizon for a predictive optimal controller for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The objective of the simulation analysis is to determine the sensitivity of the performance of a TES optimal controller and the planning horizon length to different design parameters, including: chiller capacity, cooling plant model, storage system capacity, and load profile. The analysis is performed using two commercial buildings: a 20-floor office building in Wisconsin, and a hotel in California.

  8. [New horizons in medicine. Complexity and predictability in internal medicine].

    PubMed

    Guarini, G; Onofri, E

    1993-10-01

    Being a highly sophisticated structure, the human body should be considered on a physical level as a whole of inter-correlated non-linear dynamic systems, which are by definition, complex systems because they are always conditioned in their operativity by numerous variables. We must draw attention to the opportunity that within the field of medical science the concept of complexity referring to diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostical problems, is distinct between structural and functional. The functional complexity of a system, a phenomena, an event, MY be recognized in its dynamics, only if analysed using modern methods recently brought to light, on the relationship which exist between classic determinism and deterministic chaos. Furthermore, also on practical level, the recent discoveries on the general principles, which are at the base of the functional complexity of non-linear dynamic systems, demonstrate exactly how fragile is the probabilistic predictability which guides a doctor in clinical reasoning in all its various stages; in the gathering of anamnestic and objective data; in the programming the researches aimed at confirming the validness of the diagnosis; in the therapy aimed at reaching the best possible results; in the prognosis which summarize the destiny of the binomial patient illness. The scientific enunciate of universal nature, which demonstrate how, from a tiny uncertainty in the initial functional data of a system, of a phenomena, of an event can unleash a condition of absolute unpredictability, find daily confirmation in both clinical and experimental medicine.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:8235036

  9. Generalized minimum variance control under long-range prediction horizon setups.

    PubMed

    Silveira, Antonio; Trentini, Rodrigo; Coelho, Antonio; Kutzner, Rüdiger; Hofmann, Lutz

    2016-05-01

    This paper presents the design and evaluation of a minimal order Generalized Minimum Variance controller with long-range prediction horizon and how it affects the controller and plant output variances. This study investigates how the increased prediction horizon can contribute to mitigate stochastic disturbances and attenuate oscillations. In order to design high order prediction minimum variance filters, a design procedure independent of the Diophantine Equation solution is used. The evaluation is conducted through simulations and practical essays with two different plants: a first order water flow rate problem and a second order under-damped electronic circuit. Both problems are assessed under an incremental control scheme and based on identified stochastic models. Also, two optimal tuning procedures for the algorithm are proposed. PMID:26899555

  10. Dynamic Universe Model Predicts the Trajectory of New Horizons Satellite Going to Pluto.......

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naga Parameswara Gupta, Satyavarapu

    2012-07-01

    New Horizons is NASA's artificial satellite now going towards to the dwarf planet Pluto. It has crossed Jupiter. It is expected to be the rst spacecraft to go near and study Pluto and its moons, Charon, Nix, and Hydra. These are the predictions for New Horizons (NH) space craft as on A.D. 2009-Aug-09 00:00:00.0000 hrs. The behavior of NH is similar to Pioneer Space craft as NH traveling is alike to Pioneer. NH is supposed to reach Pluto in 2015 AD. There was a gravity assist taken at Jupiter about a year back. As Dynamic universe model explains Pioneer anomaly and the higher gravitational attraction forces experienced towards SUN, It can explain NH also in a similar fashion. I am giving the predictions for NH by Dynamic Universe Model in the following Table 4. Here first two rows give Dynamic Universe Model predictions based on 02-01-2009 00:00 hrs data with Daily time step and hourly time step. Third row gives Ephemeris from Jet propulsion lab.Dynamic Universe Model can predict further to 9-Aug-2009. These Ephemeris data is from their web as on 28th June 2009 Any new data can be calculated..... For finding trajectories of Pioneer satellite (Anomaly), New Horizons satellite going to Pluto, the Calculations of Dynamic Universe model can be successfully applied. No dark matter is assumed within solar system radius. The effect on the masses around SUN shows as though there is extra gravitation pull toward SUN. It solves the Dynamics of Extra-solar planets like Planet X, satellite like Pioneer and NH for 3-Position, 3-velocity 3-acceleration for their masses,considering the complex situation of Multiple planets, Stars, Galaxy parts and Galaxy center and other Galaxies Using simple Newtonian Physics. It already solved problems Missing mass in Galaxies observed by galaxy circular velocity curves successfully. `SITA Simulations' software was developed about 18 years back for Dynamic Universe Model of Cosmology. It is based on Newtonian physics. It is Classical singularity

  11. Modeling the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and forest composition in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genet, H.; Barrett, K. M.; Johnstone, J. F.; McGuire, A. D.; Yuan, F.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Kasischke, E. S.; Rupp, S. T.; Turetsky, M. R.

    2012-12-01

    The fire regime in the boreal region of interior Alaska has been intensifying in terms of both area burned and severity over the last three decades. Based on projections of climate change, this trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. Fire causes abrupt changes in energy, nutrient and water balances influencing habitat and vegetation composition. An important factor influencing these changes is the reduction of the soil organic horizon because of differential regeneration capabilities of conifer and evergreen shrubs vs. deciduous and herbaceous vegetation on organic vs. mineral soils. The goal of this study is to develop a prognostic model to simulate the effects of fire severity on soil organic horizons and to evaluate its long-term consequences on forest composition in interior Alaska. Existing field observations were analyzed to build a predictive model of the depth of burning of soil organic horizon after a fire. The model is driven by data sets of fire occurrence, climate, and topography. Post-fire vegetation succession was simulated as a function of post-fire organic horizon depth. The fire severity and post-fire vegetation succession models were then implemented within a biogeochemistry model, the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Simulations for 21st century climate scenarios at a 1 by 1km resolution for the Alaska Yukon River Basin were conducted to evaluate the effects of considering vs. ignoring post-fire vegetation succession on carbon dynamics. The results of these simulations indicate that it is important for ecosystem models to represent the influence of fire severity on post-fire vegetation succession in order to fully understand the consequences of changes in climate and disturbance regimes on boreal ecosystems.

  12. Near-horizon description of extremal magnetized stationary black holes and Meissner effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bičák, Jiří; Hejda, Filip

    2015-11-01

    After a brief summary of the basic properties of stationary spacetimes representing rotating, charged black holes in strong axisymmetric magnetic fields, we concentrate on extremal cases, for which the horizon surface gravity vanishes. We investigate their properties by constructing simpler spacetimes that exhibit their geometries near degenerate horizons. Starting from the symmetry arguments we find that the near-horizon geometries of extremal magnetized Kerr-Newman black holes can be characterized by just one dimensionless parameter: "effective Kerr-Newman mixing angle." Employing the near-horizon geometries we demonstrate the Meissner effect of magnetic field expulsion from extremal black holes.

  13. Environmental effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: A review.

    PubMed

    Beyer, Jonny; Trannum, Hilde C; Bakke, Torgeir; Hodson, Peter V; Collier, Tracy K

    2016-09-15

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill constituted an ecosystem-level injury in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Much oil spread at 1100-1300m depth, contaminating and affecting deepwater habitats. Factors such as oil-biodegradation, ocean currents and response measures (dispersants, burning) reduced coastal oiling. Still, >2100km of shoreline and many coastal habitats were affected. Research demonstrates that oiling caused a wide range of biological effects, although worst-case impact scenarios did not materialize. Biomarkers in individual organisms were more informative about oiling stress than population and community indices. Salt marshes and seabird populations were hard hit, but were also quite resilient to oiling effects. Monitoring demonstrated little contamination of seafood. Certain impacts are still understudied, such as effects on seagrass communities. Concerns of long-term impacts remain for large fish species, deep-sea corals, sea turtles and cetaceans. These species and their habitats should continue to receive attention (monitoring and research) for years to come. PMID:27301686

  14. Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine as the hardcore of ‘Horizon 2020’: EPMA position paper

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The European Association for Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine (EPMA) considers acute problems in medical sciences as well as the quality and management of medical services challenging health care systems in Europe and worldwide. This actuality has motivated the representatives of EPMA to comment on the efforts in promoting an integrative approach based on multidisciplinary expertise to advance health care-related research and management. The current paper provides a global overview of the problems related to medical services: pandemic scenario in the progression of common non-communicable diseases, delayed interventional approaches of reactive medicine, poor economy of health care systems, lack of specialised educational programmes, problematic ethical aspects of several treatments as well as inadequate communication among professional groups and policymakers. In the form of individual paragraphs, the article presents a consolidated position of PPPM professionals towards the new European programme ‘Horizon 2020’ providing the long-lasting instruments for scientific and technological progress in medical services and health care-related programmes. In the author's opinion, Horizon 2020 provides unlimited room for research and implementation in Predictive, Preventive and Personalised Medicine. However, the overall success of the programme strongly depends on the effective communication and consolidation of professionals relevant for PPPM as well as the communication quality with policymakers. Smart political decision is the prerequisite of the effective PPPM implementation in the health care sector. This position is focused on the patients' needs, innovative medical sciences, optimal health and disease management, expert recommendations for the relevant medical fields and optimal solutions which have a potential to advance health care services if the long-term strategies were to be effectively implemented as proposed here. PMID:24708704

  15. Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

    2016-04-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

  16. Predicted Atmospheric Temperature Retrievals for the New Horizons Encounter with Pluto.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalucha, Angela M.

    2014-11-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft will flyby Pluto this July. Three opportunities for observing the temperature vs. height will present themselves: A radio occultaion of radio signals transmitted from Earth to the Radio Science Experiment (REX) instrument, a stellar occultation of a background star as seen by Alice, and a stellar occultation of the Sun as seen by Alice. The temperature vs. height profiles will be generated using the Pluto version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model, which now includes radiative-conductive forcing from the Strobel et al. (1996) model, a multilayer subsurface, and a volatile cycle. The simulations begin in the year 1986 and end at the date of the New Horizons encounter. The Pluto conditions that will be discussed are (1) a surface albedo pattern taken from Buie et al. (2010), (2) a "best case" surface N2 ice distribution and temperature from the Hansen and Paige (1996) model, (3) a configuration where there is initially no surface N2 ice, and (4) a configuration where there is effectively infinitely deep surface N2 ice.

  17. An atmospheric general circulation model for Pluto with predictions for New Horizons temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zalucha, Angela M.

    2016-06-01

    Results are presented from a 3D Pluto general circulation model (GCM) that includes conductive heating and cooling, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) heating by methane at 2.3 and 3.3 μm, non-LTE cooling by cooling by methane at 7.6 μm, and LTE CO rotational line cooling. The GCM also includes a treatment of the subsurface temperature and surface-atmosphere mass exchange. An initially 1 m thick layer of surface nitrogen frost was assumed such that it was large enough to act as a large heat sink (compared with the solar heating term) but small enough that the water ice subsurface properties were also significant. Structure was found in all three directions of the 3D wind field (with a maximum magnitude of the order of 10 m s-1 in the horizontal directions and 10-5 microbar s-1 in the vertical direction). Prograde jets were found at several altitudes. The direction of flow over the poles was found to very with altitude. Broad regions of up-welling and down-welling were also found. Predictions of vertical temperature profiles are provided for the Alice and Radio science Experiment instruments on New Horizons, while predictions of light curves are provided for ground-based stellar occultation observations. With this model methane concentrations of 0.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent and 8 and 24 microbar surface pressures are distinguishable. For ground-based stellar occultations, a detectable difference exists between light curves with the different methane concentrations, but not for different initial global mean surface pressures.

  18. One method for probabilistic prediction of the material composition of deep crustal horizons using the geophysical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelyaev, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Prediction of the material composition of deep crustal horizons in the Earth from the geophysical data requires an algorithm to classify the rocks according to their petrophysical properties. In the present work, we propose a classification algorithm that is based on the membership function and describe the computer program, which is based on this algorithm and intended for visualization of the most typical crystalline rocks of the Voronezh massif.

  19. Strange Horizons: Teaching Usual and Unusual Atmospheric Effects using APOD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    Unusual Sun and moonsets are not only photogenic -- they are educational. Images appearing on the Astronomy Picture of the Day (APOD) that demonstrate dramatic examples of the green flash, the Moon illusion, Fata Morgana, and the Etruscan vase effect are discussed in terms of how they demonstrate atmospheric refraction, chromatic aberration, and temperature inversions. A lesson plan is given for undergraduate classrooms as well as estimates of how each effect might alter the perceived time of a common sunset.

  20. Hunting Down Horizon-scale Effects with Multi-wavelength Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fonseca, José; Camera, Stefano; Santos, Mário G.; Maartens, Roy

    2015-10-01

    Next-generation cosmological surveys will probe ever larger volumes of the universe, including the largest scales, near and beyond the horizon. On these scales, the galaxy power spectrum carries signatures of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and horizon-scale general relativistic (GR) effects. However, cosmic variance limits the detection of horizon-scale effects. Combining different surveys via the multi-tracer method allows us to reduce the effect of cosmic variance. This method benefits from large bias differences between two tracers of the underlying dark matter distribution, which suggests a multi-wavelength combination of large volume surveys that are planned on a similar timescale. We show that the combination of two contemporaneous surveys, a large neutral hydrogen intensity mapping survey in SKA Phase 1 and a Euclid-like photometric survey, will provide unprecedented constraints on PNG as well as detection of the GR effects. We forecast that the error on local PNG will break through the cosmic variance limit on cosmic microwave background surveys and achieve σ ({f}{{NL}})≃ 1.4-0.5, depending on assumed priors, bias, and sky coverage. GR effects are more robust to changes in the assumed fiducial model, and we forecast that they can be detected with a signal-to-noise of about 14.

  1. Wald's entropy is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of the effective gravitational coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Brustein, Ram; Gorbonos, Dan; Hadad, Merav

    2009-02-15

    The Bekenstein-Hawking entropy of black holes in Einstein's theory of gravity is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of Newton's constant. Wald has proposed that in general theories of gravity the entropy of stationary black holes with bifurcate Killing horizons is a Noether charge which is in general different from the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy. We show that the Noether charge entropy is equal to a quarter of the horizon area in units of the effective gravitational coupling on the horizon defined by the coefficient of the kinetic term of a specific metric perturbation polarization on the horizon. We present several explicit examples of static spherically symmetric black holes.

  2. The effect of soil horizon and mineral type on the distribution of siderophores in soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Engy; Holmström, Sara J. M.

    2014-04-01

    Iron is a key component of the chemical architecture of the biosphere. Due to the low bioavailability of iron in the environment, microorganisms have developed specific uptake strategies like production of siderophores. Siderophores are operationally defined as low-molecular-mass biogenic Fe(III)-binding compounds, that can increase the bioavailability of iron by promoting the dissolution of iron-bearing minerals. In the present study, we investigated the composition of dissolved and adsorbed siderophores of the hydroxamate family in the soil horizons of podzol and the effect of specific mineral types on siderophores. Three polished mineral specimens of 3 cm × 4 cm × 3 mm (apatite, biotite and oligioclase) were inserted in the soil horizons (O (organic), E (eluvial) and B (upper illuvial)). After two years, soil samples were collected from both the bulk soil of the whole profile and from the soil attached to the mineral surfaces. The concentration of ten different fungal tri-hydroxamates within ferrichromes, fusigen and coprogens families, and five bacterial hydroxamates within the ferrioxamine family were detected. All hydroxamate types were determined in both soil water (dissolved) and soil methanol (adsorbed) extracts along the whole soil profile by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS); hence, the study is the most extensive of its kind. We found that coprogens and fusigen were present in much higher concentrations in bulk soil than were ferrioxamines and ferrichromes. On the other hand, the presence of the polished mineral completely altered the distribution of siderophores. In addition, each mineral had a unique interaction with the dissolved and adsorbed hydroxamates in the different soil horizons. Thus siderophore composition in the soil environment is controlled by the chemical, physical and biological characteristics of each soil horizon and also by the available mineral types.

  3. Multitissue molecular, genomic, and developmental effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on resident Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis).

    PubMed

    Dubansky, Benjamin; Whitehead, Andrew; Miller, Jeffrey T; Rice, Charles D; Galvez, Fernando

    2013-05-21

    The Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster resulted in crude oil contamination along the Gulf coast in sensitive estuaries. Toxicity from exposure to crude oil can affect populations of fish that live or breed in oiled habitats as seen following the Exxon Valdez oil spill. In an ongoing study of the effects of Deepwater Horizon crude oil on fish, Gulf killifish ( Fundulus grandis ) were collected from an oiled site (Grande Terre, LA) and two reference locations (coastal MS and AL) and monitored for measures of exposure to crude oil. Killifish collected from Grande Terre had divergent gene expression in the liver and gill tissue coincident with the arrival of contaminating oil and up-regulation of cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) protein in gill, liver, intestine, and head kidney for over one year following peak landfall of oil (August 2011) compared to fish collected from reference sites. Furthermore, laboratory exposures of Gulf killifish embryos to field-collected sediments from Grande Terre and Barataria Bay, LA, also resulted in increased CYP1A and developmental abnormalities when exposed to sediments collected from oiled sites compared to exposure to sediments collected from a reference site. These data are predictive of population-level impacts in fish exposed to sediments from oiled locations along the Gulf of Mexico coast. PMID:23659337

  4. Effects of COREXIT EC9500A on bacterial communities influenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fulmer, P. A.; Hamdan, L. J.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria are important to controlling the fate of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons in the marine environment and will be an important component to the natural attenuation of the Deepwater Horizon spill. The chemical dispersant COREXIT®EC9500A was widely deployed during the Deepwater Horizon response. Although toxicity tests confirm that COREXIT®EC9500A does not pose a significant threat to invertebrate and adult fish populations, there is limited information on its effect on microbial communities. Microbial community composition was determined in freshly deposited oil on a beach in Louisiana, resulting from the spill. Secondary heterotrophic production and viability in cultures obtained from oil samples was determined in the presence and absence of COREXIT®EC9500A . Vibrio isolates were abundant in length heterogeneity-PCR fingerprints of oil samples along with hydrocarbon-degrading isolates affiliated with Acinetobacter and Marinobacter. Significant reductions in Acinetobacter and Marinobacter production and viability in the presence of the dispersant compared to controls were observed. Marinobacter is most sensitive to the dispersant as evidenced by a near 100% reduction in viability and production as a result of exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of the dispersant. Significantly, at the same dispersant concentration, non-hydrocarbon-degrading Vibrio isolates proliferate. These data suggest that hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria are inhibited by this dispersants and that it’s use could potentially diminish the capacity of environmental microbial communities to bioremediate the spill.

  5. Solar Wind Prediction at Pluto During the New Horizons Flyby: Results From a Two-Dimensional Multi-fluid MHD Model of the Outer Heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zieger, B.; Toth, G.; Opher, M.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2015-12-01

    We adapted the outer heliosphere (OH) component of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, which is a 3-D global multi-fluid MHD model of the outer heliosphere with one ion fluid and four neutral populations, for time-dependent 2-D multi-fluid MHD simulations of solar wind propagation from a heliocentric distance of 1 AU up to 50 AU. We used this model to predict the solar wind plasma parameters as well as the interplanetary magnetic field components at Pluto and along the New Horizons trajectory during the whole calendar year of 2015 including the closest approach on July 14. The simulation is run in the solar equatorial plane in the heliographic inertial frame (HGI). The inner boundary conditions along a circle of 1 AU radius are set by near-Earth solar wind observations (hourly OMNI data), assuming that the global solar wind distribution does not change much during a Carrington rotation (27.2753 days). Our 2-D multi-fluid MHD code evolves one ion fluid and two neutral fluids, which are the primary interstellar neutral atoms and the interstellar neutral atoms deflected in the outer heliosheath between the slow bow shock and the heliopause. Spherical expansion effects are properly taken into account for the ions and the solar magnetic field. The inflow parameters of the two neutral fluids (density, temperature, and velocity components) are set at the negative X (HGI) boundary at 50 AU distance, which are taken from previous 3-D global multi-fluid MHD simulations of the heliospheric interface in a much larger simulation box (1500x1500x1500 AU). The inflow velocity vectors of the two neutral fluids define the so-called hydrogen deflection plane. The solar wind ions and the interstellar neutrals interact through charge exchange source terms included in the multi-fluid MHD equations, so the two neutral populations are evolved self-consistently. We validate our model with the available plasma data from New Horizons as well as with Voyager 2 plasma and magnetic field

  6. HORIZON SENSING

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk, Sc.D.

    2002-07-31

    Real-time horizon sensing (HS) on continuous mining (CM) machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade HS systems has been ongoing this quarter at Oxbow Mining Company, Monterey Coal Company (EXXON), FMC Trona, Twentymile Coal Company (RAG America), and SASOL Coal. Detailed monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (United States) and IEC (International) certification.

  7. Quantum-gravity effects outside the horizon spark black to white hole tunneling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haggard, Hal M.; Rovelli, Carlo

    2015-11-01

    We show that there is a classical metric satisfying the Einstein equations outside a finite spacetime region where matter collapses into a black hole and then emerges from a white hole. We compute this metric explicitly. We show how quantum theory determines the (long) time for the process to happen. A black hole can thus quantum tunnel into a white hole. For this to happen, quantum gravity should affect the metric also in a small region outside the horizon; we show that, contrary to what is commonly assumed, this is not forbidden by causality or by the semiclassical approximation, because quantum effects can pile up over a long time. This scenario alters radically the discussion on the black hole information puzzle.

  8. Fluctuating black hole horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Jianwei

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we treat the black hole horizon as a physical boundary to the spacetime and study its dynamics following from the Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary term. Using the Kerr black hole as an example we derive an effective action that describes, in the large wave number limit, a massless Klein-Gordon field living on the average location of the boundary. Complete solutions can be found in the small rotation limit of the black hole. The formulation suggests that the boundary can be treated in the same way as any other matter contributions. In particular, the angular momentum of the boundary matches exactly with that of the black hole, suggesting an interesting possibility that all charges (including the entropy) of the black hole are carried by the boundary. Using this as input, we derive predictions on the Planck scale properties of the boundary.

  9. HORIZON SENSING

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-03-18

    With the aid of a DOE grant (No. DE-FC26-01NT41050), Stolar Research Corporation (Stolar) developed the Horizon Sensor (HS) to distinguish between the different layers of a coal seam. Mounted on mining machine cutter drums, HS units can detect or sense the horizon between the coal seam and the roof and floor rock, providing the opportunity to accurately mine the section of the seam most desired. HS also enables accurate cutting of minimum height if that is the operator's objective. Often when cutting is done out-of-seam, the head-positioning function facilitates a fixed mining height to minimize dilution. With this technology, miners can still be at a remote location, yet cut only the clean coal, resulting in a much more efficient overall process. The objectives of this project were to demonstrate the feasibility of horizon sensing on mining machines and demonstrate that Horizon Sensing can allow coal to be cut cleaner and more efficiently. Stolar's primary goal was to develop the Horizon Sensor (HS) into an enabling technology for full or partial automation or ''agile mining''. This technical innovation (R&D 100 Award Winner) is quickly demonstrating improvements in productivity and miner safety at several prominent coal mines in the United States. In addition, the HS system can enable the cutting of cleaner coal. Stolar has driven the HS program on the philosophy that cutting cleaner coal means burning cleaner coal. The sensor, located inches from the cutting bits, is based upon the physics principles of a Resonant Microstrip Patch Antenna (RMPA). When it is in proximity of the rock-coal interface, the RMPA impedance varies depending on the thickness of uncut coal. The impedance is measured by the computer-controlled electronics and then sent by radio waves to the mining machine. The worker at the machine can read the data via a Graphical User Interface, displaying a color-coded image of the coal being cut, and direct the machine appropriately. The Horizon Sensor

  10. Killing Horizons Kill Horizon Degrees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergamin, L.; Grumiller, D.

    Frequently, it is argued that the microstates responsible for the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy should arise from some physical degrees of freedom located near or on the black hole horizon. In this essay, we elucidate that instead entropy may emerge from the conversion of physical degrees of freedom, attached to a generic boundary, into unobservable gauge degrees of freedom attached to the horizon. By constructing the reduced phase space, it can be demonstrated that such a transmutation indeed takes place for a large class of black holes, including Schwarzschild.

  11. The effect of moisture content on the thermal conductivity of moss and organic soil horizons from black spruce ecosystems in interior alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, J. A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.

    2009-01-01

    Organic soil horizons function as important controls on the thermal state of near-surface soil and permafrost in high-latitude ecosystems. The thermal conductivity of organic horizons is typically lower than mineral soils and is closely linked to moisture content, bulk density, and water phase. In this study, we examined the relationship between thermal conductivity and soil moisture for different moss and organic horizon types in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska. We sampled organic horizons from feather moss-dominated and Sphagnum-dominated stands and divided horizons into live moss and fibrous and amorphous organic matter. Thermal conductivity measurements were made across a range of moisture contents using the transient line heat source method. Our findings indicate a strong positive and linear relationship between thawed thermal conductivity (Kt) and volumetric water content. We observed similar regression parameters (?? or slope) across moss types and organic horizons types and small differences in ??0 (y intercept) across organic horizon types. Live Sphagnum spp. had a higher range of Kt than did live feather moss because of the field capacity (laboratory based) of live Sphagnum spp. In northern regions, the thermal properties of organic soil horizons play a critical role in mediating the effects of climate warming on permafrost conditions. Findings from this study could improve model parameterization of thermal properties in organic horizons and enhance our understanding of future permafrost and ecosystem dynamics. ?? 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

  12. Effects of sediment amended with Deepwater Horizon incident slick oil on the infaunal amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus.

    PubMed

    Lotufo, Guilherme R; Farrar, J Daniel; Biedenbach, James M; Laird, Jennifer G; Krasnec, Michelle O; Lay, Claire; Morris, Jeffrey M; Gielazyn, Michel L

    2016-08-15

    Crude oil released from the Deepwater Horizon disaster into the Gulf of Mexico posed potential impacts to infaunal invertebrates inhabiting near shore habitats. The effects of sediment-associated weathered slick oil on the amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus was assessed using 28-d exposures to total PAH sediment concentrations ranging from 0.3 to 24mg/kg (sum of 50 PAHs or tPAH50). Survival and growth rate were significantly decreased in the 2.6, 11.4 and 24.2mg/kg treatments, but only growth in 5.5mg/kg. Offspring production was dramatically decreased but was variable and significantly different only for 24.2mg/kg. The concentrations associated with 20% decreases relative to reference were 1.05 (95% CI=0-2.89) mg/kg tPAH50 for growth rate and 0.632 (95% CI=0.11-2.15) mg/kg tPAH50 for offspring production. The concentrations of PAHs affecting amphipods are within the range of concentrations measured in marsh areas reportedly impacted by DWH oil after its release. PMID:27267114

  13. Effects of external feedback about body tilt: Influence on the Subjective Proprioceptive Horizon.

    PubMed

    Bringoux, L; Bourdin, C; Nougier, V; Raphel, C

    2006-11-01

    The present study investigated a cognitive aspect upon spatial perception, namely the impact of a true or false verbal feedback (FB) about the magnitude of body tilt on Subjective Proprioceptive Horizon (SPH) estimates. Subjects were asked to set their extended arm normal to gravity for different pitch body tilts up to 9 degrees . True FB were provided at all body tilt angles, whereas false FB were provided only at 6 degrees backward and 6 degrees forward body tilts for half of the trials. Our data confirmed previous results about the egocentric influence of body tilt itself upon SPH: estimates were linearly lowered with forward tilts and elevated with backward tilts. In addition, results showed a significant effect of the nature of the external FB provided to the subjects. When subjects received a false FB inducing a 3 degrees forward bias relative to physical body tilt, they set their SPH consequently higher than when they received a false FB inducing a 3 degrees backward bias. These findings clearly indicated that false cognitive information about body tilt might significantly modify the judgement of a geocentric direction of space, such as the SPH. This may have deleterious repercussions in aeronautics when pilots have to localize external objects relative to earth-based directions in darkened environments. PMID:16982145

  14. A statistical representation of the cosmological constant from finite size effects at the apparent horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viaggiu, Stefano

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we present a statistical description of the cosmological constant in terms of massless bosons (gravitons). To this purpose, we use our recent results implying a non vanishing temperature {T_{Λ }} for the cosmological constant. In particular, we found that a non vanishing T_{Λ } allows us to depict the cosmological constant Λ as composed of elementary oscillations of massless bosons of energy hbar ω by means of the Bose-Einstein distribution. In this context, as happens for photons in a medium, the effective phase velocity v_g of these massless excitations is not given by the speed of light c but it is suppressed by a factor depending on the number of quanta present in the universe at the apparent horizon. We found interesting formulas relating the cosmological constant, the number of quanta N and the mean value overline{λ } of the wavelength of the gravitons. In this context, we study the possibility to look to the gravitons system so obtained as being very near to be a Bose-Einstein condensate. Finally, an attempt is done to write down the Friedmann flat equations in terms of N and overline{λ }.

  15. An experimental study of the influence of limited time horizon on positivity effects among young adults using eye-tracking.

    PubMed

    Cypryańska, Marzena; Krejtz, Izabela; Jaskółowska, Aleksandra; Kulawik, Alicja; Żukowska, Aleksandra; De Zavala, Agnieszka Golec; Niewiarowski, Jakub; Nezlek, John B

    2014-12-01

    Compared to younger adults, older adults attend more to positive stimuli, a positivity effect. Older adults have limited time horizons, and they focus on maintaining positive affect, whereas younger adults have unlimited time horizons, and they focus on acquiring knowledge and developing skills. Time horizons were manipulated by asking participants (66 young adults, M age = 20.5 yr., SD = 1.2) to think that their lives would end in three years. Some participants focused on what they would do in these three years (life focus), whereas others focused on the fact that they would die in three years (death focus). Attentional biases to facial expressions of happiness, sadness, fear, anger, and disgust were measured. Participants viewed 20 slides including pairings of a happy face with each of the negative emotions. The dependent measure was the relative attention paid to the faces on each slide. Participants in the experimental conditions exhibited a positivity effect compared to participants in the control condition, although some results suggested that this effect was weaker in the death focus condition than in the life focus condition. PMID:25457091

  16. EFFECT OF ACID TREATMENT ON DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON RETENTION BY A SPODIC HORIZON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Processes involving the movement of organic substances in forest soils are not well understood. This study was conducted to examine the role of acidic inputs on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mobility, processes affecting the retention of DOV by a B horizon, and SO2-4 adsorption....

  17. Effectiveness of the Challenging Horizons After-School Program for Young Adolescents with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Steven W.; Schultz, Brandon K.; DeMars, Christine E.; Davis, Heather

    2011-01-01

    There are no empirically supported psychosocial treatments for adolescents with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study examined the treatment benefits of the Challenging Horizons Program (CHP), a psychosocial treatment program designed to address the impairment and symptoms associated with this disorder in young adolescents.…

  18. Using soil E horizon in salvaged topsoil material - effect on soil texture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Topsoil is a limited natural resource that needs to be efficiently salvaged during landscape reconstruction operations for its further use as topsoil. Current guidelines for borrowed topsoil define topsoil as the surface layer of native soil, or soil A horizon. Using information from nearly 8,000 ...

  19. A production-inventory model with permissible delay incorporating learning effect in random planning horizon using genetic algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kar, Mohuya B.; Bera, Shankar; Das, Debasis; Kar, Samarjit

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a production-inventory model for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand under inflation in a random planning horizon. The supplier offers the retailer fully permissible delay in payment. It is assumed that the time horizon of the business period is random in nature and follows exponential distribution with a known mean. Here learning effect is also introduced for the production cost and setup cost. The model is formulated as profit maximization problem with respect to the retailer and solved with the help of genetic algorithm (GA) and PSO. Moreover, the convergence of two methods—GA and PSO—is studied against generation numbers and it is seen that GA converges rapidly than PSO. The optimum results from methods are compared both numerically and graphically. It is observed that the performance of GA is marginally better than PSO. We have provided some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses to illustrate the model.

  20. Effects of Future Warming and Fire Regime Change on Boreal Soil Organic Horizons and Permafrost Dynamics in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, F.; McGuire, A. D.; Yi, S.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Rupp, T. S.; Breen, A. L.; Kurkowski, T.; Kasischke, E. S.; Harden, J. W.

    2011-12-01

    There is evidence that ongoing climate change is affecting fire frequency, extent, and severity in the interior boreal region of Alaska, and these changes are likely to continue into the future. In this study we couple a landscape fire dynamics model with an ecosystem model in an application to evaluate the long term effects of changes in climate and fire regime on soil organic horizons and permafrost dynamics in interior Alaska. Changes in fire regime were simulated by the Alaska Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model driven by downscaled GCM climate outputs from CCCMA-CGCM3.1 and MPI ECHAM5 models using the A1B scenario at 1km x 1 km resolution for the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. The outputs of ALFRESCO were used to drive the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM). ALFRESCO simulated fire activity would be enhanced through the middle of the 21st Century, after which fire activity would revert to pre-1990 levels because of a shift in forest composition (i.e., fuels) to a greater fraction of deciduous forest. The model framework estimated that the fibrous organic horizon would lose C through the middle of the 21st Century for the warmer ECHAM5 scenario, but would gain C throughout the 21st Century for the CCCMA scenario. The amorphous organic horizon lost C through the 21st Century for both scenarios. The active layer deepened across the basin from about 1 m to between 1.6 and 1.8 m by the middle of the century and then returned to current depth by the end of the 21st Century. These results suggest that it is important to couple changes in the soil organic horizons of boreal ecosystems to permafrost dynamics in order to fully understand the effects of changes in climate and fire regime on regional boreal ecosystem C storage.

  1. Social pharmacology: expanding horizons.

    PubMed

    Maiti, Rituparna; Alloza, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of "social pharmacology" is not covered by the so-called "Phase IV" alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the "life cycle" of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far-reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences. PMID:24987168

  2. Social Pharmacology: Expanding horizons

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, Rituparna; Alloza, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    In the current modern and global society, social changes are in constant evolution due to scientific progress (technology, culture, customs, and hygiene) and produce the freedom in individuals to take decisions by themselves or with their doctors toward drug consumption. In the arena of marketed drug products which includes society, individual, administration, and pharmaceutical industry, the young discipline emerged is social pharmacology or sociopharmacology. This science arises from clinical pharmacology, and deals with different parameters, which are important in creating knowledge on marketed drugs. However, the scope of “social pharmacology” is not covered by the so-called “Phase IV” alone, but it is the science that handles the postmarketing knowledge of drugs. The social pharmacology studies the “life cycle” of any marketed pharmaceutical product in the social terrain, and evaluates the effects of the real environment under circumstances totally different in the drug development process. Therefore, there are far-reaching horizons, plural, and shared predictions among health professionals and other, for beneficial use of a drug, toward maximizing the benefits of therapy, while minimizing negative social consequences. PMID:24987168

  3. New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

    PubMed

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

    2004-11-21

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred). PMID:15534705

  4. Chronic effects of non-weathered and weathered crude oil and dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident on development of larvae of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica.

    PubMed

    Langdon, Chris J; Stefansson, Emily S; Pargee, Suzanne M; Blunt, Susanna M; Gage, Susan J; Stubblefield, William A

    2016-08-01

    The present study examined the effects of chronic exposure of eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) larvae to the water-accommodated fractions of fresh and weathered oils collected from the Deepwater Horizon incident, with and without additions of the dispersant Corexit 9500A, as well as to solutions of Corexit alone. Both shell growth of larvae exposed to test materials for a period of 10 d and larval settlement after 28 d of exposure were the most sensitive endpoints, with the 10-d growth endpoint being less variable among replicates. Growth and settlement endpoints were more sensitive than larval survival and normal development after 10 d and 28 d. Acute-to-chronic ratios calculated in the present study suggest that acute toxicities of oils and dispersant for oysters are not predictive of chronic effect levels for growth and settlement; therefore, chronic bioassays are necessary to assess these sublethal effects, in addition to standard 48-h acute toxicity tests. Comparison of 10% effective concentration (EC10) values for chronic 10-d growth and 28-d settlement endpoints with concentrations of total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (a marker for Corexit) in seawater samples, collected during and after the Deepwater Horizon incident, indicated it was unlikely that elevated concentrations of water-soluble fractions of oil and dispersant in the nearshore environment had significant adverse effects on the growth and settlement of eastern oyster larvae. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2029-2040. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26749151

  5. Boosted apparent horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akcay, Sarp

    Boosted black holes play an important role in General Relativity (GR), especially in relation to the binary black hole problem. Solving Einstein vac- uum equations in the strong field regime had long been the holy grail of numerical relativity until the significant breakthroughs made in 2005 and 2006. Numerical relativity plays a crucial role in gravitational wave detection by providing numerically generated gravitational waveforms that help search for actual signatures of gravitational radiation exciting laser interferometric de- tectors such as LIGO, VIRGO and GEO600 here on Earth. Binary black holes orbit each other in an ever tightening adiabatic inspiral caused by energy loss due to gravitational radiation emission. As the orbits shrinks, the holes speed up and eventually move at relativistic speeds in the vicinity of each other (separated by ~ 10M or so where 2M is the Schwarzschild radius). As such, one must abandon the Newtonian notion of a point mass on a circular orbit with tangential velocity and replace it with the concept of black holes, cloaked behind spheroidal event horizons that become distorted due to strong gravity, and further appear distorted because of Lorentz effects from the high orbital velocity. Apparent horizons (AHs) are 2-dimensional boundaries that are trapped surfaces. Conceptually, one can think of them as 'quasi-local' definitions for a black hole horizon. This will be explained in more detail in chapter 2. Apparent horizons are especially important in numerical relativity as they provide a computationally efficient way of describing and locating a black hole horizon. For a stationary spacetime, apparent horizons are 2-dimensional cross-sections of the event horizon, which is itself a 3-dimensional null surface in spacetime. Because an AH is a 2-dimensional cross-section of an event horizon, its area remains invariant under distortions due to Lorentz boosts although its shape changes. This fascinating property of the AH can be

  6. Near-horizon Kerr magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gralla, Samuel E.; Lupsasca, Alexandru; Strominger, Andrew

    2016-05-01

    We exploit the near-horizon conformal symmetry of rapidly spinning black holes to determine universal properties of their magnetospheres. Analytic expressions are derived for the limiting form of the magnetosphere in the near-horizon region. The symmetry is shown to imply that the black hole Meissner effect holds for free Maxwell fields but is generically violated for force-free fields. We further show that in the extremal limit, near-horizon plasma particles are infinitely boosted relative to accretion flow. Active galactic nuclei powered by rapidly spinning black holes are therefore natural sites for high-energy particle collisions.

  7. Transport of organic contaminants in subsoil horizons and effects of dissolved organic matter related to organic waste recycling practices.

    PubMed

    Chabauty, Florian; Pot, Valérie; Bourdat-Deschamps, Marjolaine; Bernet, Nathalie; Labat, Christophe; Benoit, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Compost amendment on agricultural soil is a current practice to compensate the loss of organic matter. As a consequence, dissolved organic carbon concentration in soil leachates can be increased and potentially modify the transport of other solutes. This study aims to characterize the processes controlling the mobility of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in deep soil layers and their potential impacts on the leaching of organic contaminants (pesticides and pharmaceutical compounds) potentially present in cultivated soils receiving organic waste composts. We sampled undisturbed soil cores in the illuviated horizon (60-90 cm depth) of an Albeluvisol. Percolation experiments were made in presence and absence of DOM with two different pesticides, isoproturon and epoxiconazole, and two pharmaceutical compounds, ibuprofen and sulfamethoxazole. Two types of DOM were extracted from two different soil surface horizons: one sampled in a plot receiving a co-compost of green wastes and sewage sludge applied once every 2 years since 1998 and one sampled in an unamended plot. Results show that DOM behaved as a highly reactive solute, which was continuously generated within the soil columns during flow and increased after flow interruption. DOM significantly increased the mobility of bromide and all pollutants, but the effects differed according the hydrophobic and the ionic character of the molecules. However, no clear effects of the origin of DOM on the mobility of the different contaminants were observed. PMID:26676540

  8. Perspectives on effectively constraining the location of a massive trans-Plutonian object with the New Horizons spacecraft: a sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iorio, L.

    2013-08-01

    The radio tracking apparatus of the New Horizons spacecraft, currently traveling to the Pluto system where its arrival is scheduled for July 2015, should be able to reach an accuracy of 10 m (range) and 0.1 { mm } { s }^{-1} (range-rate) over distances up to 50 au. This should allow to effectively constrain the location of a putative trans-Plutonian massive object, dubbed Planet X (PX) hereafter, whose existence has recently been postulated for a variety of reasons connected with, e.g., the architecture of the Kuiper belt and the cometary flux from the Oort cloud. Traditional scenarios involve a rock-ice planetoid with m_X≈ 0.7 m_{⊕} at some 100-200 au, or a Jovian body with m_X≲ 5 m_J at about 10,000-20,000 au; as a result of our preliminary sensitivity analysis, they should be detectable by New Horizons since they would impact its range at a km level or so over a time span 6 years long. Conversely, range residuals statistically compatible with zero having an amplitude of 10 m would imply that PX, if it exists, could not be located at less than about 4,500 au (m_X=0.7 m_{⊕}) or 60,000 au (m_X=5 m_J), thus making a direct detection quite demanding with the present-day technologies. As a consequence, it would be appropriate to rename such a remote body as Thelisto. Also fundamental physics would benefit from this analysis since certain subtle effects predicted by MOND for the deep Newtonian regions of our Solar System are just equivalent to those of a distant pointlike mass.

  9. High-frequency over-the-horizon radar and ionospheric backscatter studies in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Le-Wei

    1998-09-01

    China is one of the countries that employs high-frequency over-the-horizon radars for both military and civil applications. The first Chinese high-frequency over-the horizon backscatter radar was developed in the 1970s. This paper briefly introduces the first Chinese over-the-horizon backscatter radar system and reviews ionospheric backscatter and propagation studies in China. The paper discusses the motivation for establishing over-the-horizon radar systems in China, the experimental system, target recognition and detection,and estimation of over-the-horizon radar availability. Observations of aircraft, large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances, and the effects of a remote nuclear explosion are also presented. Finally, the real-time Chinese ionosonde network and frequency predictions using backscatter ionograms are discussed.

  10. Contamination of the O2 soil horizon by zinc smelting and its effect on woodlouse survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beyer, W.N.; Miller, G.W.; Cromartie, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Samples of litter from the 02 horizon of Dekalb soil (loamyskeletal, mixed, mesic Typic Dystrochrept) were collected from 18 ridgetop sites on a transect that ran by two Zn smelters in Palmerton, Pa. Metal concentrations increased by regular gradations from a minimum at a site 105 km west of the smelters (67 mg/kg Zn, 0.85 mg/kg Cd, 150 mg/kg Pb, 11 mg/kg Cu) to a maximum 1.2 km east of the smelters (35,000 mg/kg Zn, 1300 mg/kg Cd, 3200 mg/kg Pb, 280 mg/kg Cu), and then decreased until they reached an eastern minimum at the easternmost site, 19 km from the smelters. An increase in the P concentrations near the smelters showed that the emissions were disrupting nutrient flow through the ecosystem. An increase in the pH near the smelters was attributed to the high concentrations of Zn. The log of the distance of the sites from the smelters was significantly correlated (r = - 0.80, p < 0.05) with the mortality of woodlice (Porcellio scaber Latreille} fed samples of the litter during an 8-week test. There was substantial mortality of woodlice observed even in the 02 litter collected 19 km east of the smelters. Zinc, cadmium, lead, copper, and sulfur were experimentally added, alone or in combination, to 02 litter collected far from any known source of metal emissions. The highest concentration of Zn added (20,000 mg/kg) was toxic enough to account for the mortality observed in the earlier test. A lower concentration of Zn (5000 mg/kg) as well as the concentration of Cd (500 mg/kg) tested also significantly (p < 0.05) increased the mortality of woodlice.

  11. On predicting monitoring system effectiveness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cappello, Carlo; Sigurdardottir, Dorotea; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo

    2015-03-01

    While the objective of structural design is to achieve stability with an appropriate level of reliability, the design of systems for structural health monitoring is performed to identify a configuration that enables acquisition of data with an appropriate level of accuracy in order to understand the performance of a structure or its condition state. However, a rational standardized approach for monitoring system design is not fully available. Hence, when engineers design a monitoring system, their approach is often heuristic with performance evaluation based on experience, rather than on quantitative analysis. In this contribution, we propose a probabilistic model for the estimation of monitoring system effectiveness based on information available in prior condition, i.e. before acquiring empirical data. The presented model is developed considering the analogy between structural design and monitoring system design. We assume that the effectiveness can be evaluated based on the prediction of the posterior variance or covariance matrix of the state parameters, which we assume to be defined in a continuous space. Since the empirical measurements are not available in prior condition, the estimation of the posterior variance or covariance matrix is performed considering the measurements as a stochastic variable. Moreover, the model takes into account the effects of nuisance parameters, which are stochastic parameters that affect the observations but cannot be estimated using monitoring data. Finally, we present an application of the proposed model to a real structure. The results show how the model enables engineers to predict whether a sensor configuration satisfies the required performance.

  12. Gravitational Horizon(3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chao Yuan

    2012-05-01

    Anomalous decelerations of spacecraft Pioneer-10,11,etc could be interpreted as signal delay effect between speed of gravity and that of light as reflected in virtual scale, similar to covarying virtual scale effect in relative motion (http://arxiv.org/html/math-ph/0001019v5).A finite speed of gravity faster than light could be inferred (http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034v2). Measurements of gravitational variations by paraconical pendulum during a total solar eclipse infer the same(http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034v9). A finite Superluminal speed of gravity is the necessary condition to imply that there exists gravitational horizon (GH). Such "GH" of our Universe would stretch far beyond the cosmic event horizon of light. Dark energy may be owing to mutually interactive gravitational horizons of cousin universes. Sufficient condition for the conjecture is that the dark energy would be increasing with age of our Universe since accelerated expansion started about 5 Gyr ago, since more and more arrivals of "GH" of distant cousin universes would interact with "GH" of our Universe. The history of dark energy variations between then and now would be desirable(http://arXiv.org/html/physics/0001034). In "GH" conjecture, the neighborhood of cousin universes would be likely boundless in 4D-space-time without begining or end. The dark energy would keep all universes in continually accelerated expansion to eventual fragmentation. Fragments would crash and merge into bangs, big or small, to form another generation of cousin universes. These scenarios might offer a clue to what was before the big bang.

  13. Effects of Building a Sand Barrier Berm to Mitigate the Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Louisiana Marshes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lavoie, Dawn; Flocks, James G.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Sallenger, A.H., Jr.; Twichell, David C.

    2010-01-01

    The State of Louisiana requested emergency authorization on May 11, 2010, to perform spill mitigation work on the Chandeleur Islands and on all the barrier islands from Grand Terre Island eastward to Sandy Point to enhance the capability of the islands to reduce the movement of oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the marshes. The proposed action-building a barrier berm (essentially an artificial island fronting the existing barriers and inlets) seaward of the existing barrier islands and inlets-'restores' the protective function of the islands but does not alter the islands themselves. Building a barrier berm to protect the mainland wetlands from oil is a new strategy and depends on the timeliness of construction to be successful. Prioritizing areas to be bermed, focusing on those areas that are most vulnerable and where construction can be completed most rapidly, may increase chances for success. For example, it may be easier and more efficient to berm the narrow inlets of the coastal section to the west of the Mississippi River Delta rather than the large expanses of open water to the east of the delta in the southern parts of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (NWR). This document provides information about the potential available sand resources and effects of berm construction on the existing barrier islands. The proposed project originally involved removing sediment from a linear source approximately 1 mile (1.6 km) gulfward of the barrier islands and placing it just seaward of the islands in shallow water (~2-m depth where possible) to form a continuous berm rising approximately 6 feet (~2 m) above sea level (North American Vertical Datum of 1988-NAVD88) with an ~110-yd (~100-m) width at water level and a slope of 25:1 to the seafloor. Discussions within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with others led to the determination that point-source locations, such as Hewes Point, the St. Bernard Shoals, and Ship Shoal, were more suitable 'borrow

  14. Internet's critical path horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, S.; Solé, R. V.

    2004-03-01

    Internet is known to display a highly heterogeneous structure and complex fluctuations in its traffic dynamics. Congestion seems to be an inevitable result of user's behavior coupled to the network dynamics and it effects should be minimized by choosing appropriate routing strategies. But what are the requirements of routing depth in order to optimize the traffic flow? In this paper we analyse the behavior of Internet traffic with a topologically realistic spatial structure as described in a previous study [S.-H. Yook et al., Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 13382 (2002)]. The model involves self-regulation of packet generation and different levels of routing depth. It is shown that it reproduces the relevant key, statistical features of Internet's traffic. Moreover, we also report the existence of a critical path horizon defining a transition from low-efficient traffic to highly efficient flow. This transition is actually a direct consequence of the web's small world architecture exploited by the routing algorithm. Once routing tables reach the network diameter, the traffic experiences a sudden transition from a low-efficient to a highly-efficient behavior. It is conjectured that routing policies might have spontaneously reached such a compromise in a distributed manner. Internet would thus be operating close to such critical path horizon.

  15. School Effectiveness or the Horizon of the World as a Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Normand, Romuald

    2008-01-01

    The present paper aims to provide an account of the genesis and development of a collection of scientific work that has received strong international recognition--the paradigm of school effectiveness. It shows how this theory, based on the design of measurement tools, has gradually influenced educational management and policies in promoting the…

  16. Ripple Effects: Budgets Grow Modestly, but Energy Costs Cloud the Horizon

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oder, Norman

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author reports the ripple effects of the energy squeeze due to Hurricane Katrina and other factors that sent energy costs skyrocketing. Energy costs are a good part of why budget growth, which has been steady over the past five years, has been slowing down. The projected change from FY2005 to FY2006 is only 3.3%, compared to…

  17. Telescopic horizon scanning.

    PubMed

    Koenderink, Jan

    2014-12-20

    The problem of "distortionless" viewing with terrestrial telescopic systems (mainly "binoculars") remains problematic. The so called "globe effect" is only partially counteracted in modern designs. Theories addressing the phenomenon have never reached definitive closure. In this paper, we show that exact distortionless viewing with terrestrial telescopic systems is not possible in general, but that it is in principle possible in-very frequent in battle field and marine applications-the case of horizon scanning. However, this involves cylindrical optical elements. For opto-electronic systems, a full solution is more readily feasible. The solution involves a novel interpretation of the relevant constraints and objectives. For final design decisions, it is not necessary to rely on a corpus of psychophysical (or ergonomic) data, although one has to decide whether the instrument is intended as an extension of the eye or as a "pictorial" device. PMID:25608206

  18. Resolving Lifshitz Horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Sarah; Kachru, Shamit; Wang, Huajia; /Stanford U., ITP /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SLAC

    2012-04-24

    Via the AdS/CFT correspondence, ground states of field theories at finite charge density are mapped to extremal black brane solutions. Studies of simple gravity + matter systems in this context have uncovered wide new classes of extremal geometries. The Lifshitz metrics characterizing field theories with non-trivial dynamical critical exponent z {ne} 1 emerge as one common endpoint in doped holographic toy models. However, the Lifshitz horizon exhibits mildly singular behaviour - while curvature invariants are finite, there are diverging tidal forces. Here we show that in some of the simplest contexts where Lifshitz metrics emerge, Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theories, generic corrections lead to a replacement of the Lifshitz metric, in the deep infrared, by a re-emergent AdS{sub 2} x R{sup 2} geometry. Thus, at least in these cases, the Lifshitz scaling characterizes the physics over a wide range of energy scales, but the mild singularity is cured by quantum or stringy effects.

  19. Semiclassical ultraextremal horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Matyjasek, Jerzy; Zaslavskii, O.B.

    2005-04-15

    We examine backreaction of quantum massive fields on multiply-degenerate (ultraextremal) horizons. It is shown that, under influence of the quantum backreaction, the horizon of such a kind moves to a new position near which the metric does not change its asymptotics, so the ultraextremal black holes and cosmological spacetimes do exist as self-consistent solutions of the semiclassical field equations.

  20. The 2011 Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Smith, R.; Willis, H.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2011-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This volume, the "2011 Horizon…

  1. Two Horizons of Fusion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lo, Mun Ling; Chik, Pakey Pui Man

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we aim to differentiate the internal and external horizons of "fusion." "Fusion" in the internal horizon relates to the structure and meaning of the object of learning as experienced by the learner. It clarifies the interrelationships among an object's critical features and aspects. It also illuminates the…

  2. The 2010 Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Levine, A.; Smith, R.; Stone, S.

    2010-01-01

    The annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a qualitative research project established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative inquiry on college and university campuses within the next five years. The…

  3. Fuzziness at the horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batic, Davide; Nicolini, Piero

    2010-08-01

    We study the stability of the noncommutative Schwarzschild black hole interior by analysing the propagation of a massless scalar field between the two horizons. We show that the spacetime fuzziness triggered by the field higher momenta can cure the classical exponential blue-shift divergence, suppressing the emergence of infinite energy density in a region nearby the Cauchy horizon.

  4. Potential immunotoxicological health effects following exposure to COREXIT 9500A during cleanup of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Stacey E; Franko, Jennifer; Lukomska, Ewa; Meade, B J

    2011-01-01

    Workers involved in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill cleanup efforts reported acute pulmonary and dermatological adverse health effects. These studies were undertaken to assess the immunotoxicity of COREXIT 9500A, the primary dispersant used in cleanup efforts, as a potential causative agent. COREXIT 9500A and one of its active ingredients, dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (DSS), were evaluated using murine models for hypersensitivity and immune suppression, including the local lymph node assay (LLNA), phenotypic analysis of draining lymph node cells (DLN), mouse ear swelling test (MEST), total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE), and the plaque-forming cell (PFC) assay. Dermal exposure to COREXIT 9500A and DSS induced dose-responsive increases in dermal irritation and lymphocyte proliferation. The EC3 values for COREXIT 9500A and DSS were 0.4% and 3.9%, respectively, resulting in a classification of COREXIT 9500A as a potent sensitizer and DSS as a moderate sensitizer. A T-cell-mediated mechanism underlying the LLNA was supported by positive responses in the MEST assay for COREXIT and DSS, indicated by a significant increase in ear swelling 48 h post challenge. There were no marked alterations in total serum IgE or B220+/IgE+ lymph-node cell populations following exposure to COREXIT 9500A. Significant elevations in interferon (IFN)-γ but not interleukin (IL)-4 protein were also observed in stimulated lymph node cells. The absence of increases in IgE and IL-4 in the presence of enhanced lymphocyte proliferation, positive MEST responses, and elevations in IFN-γ suggest a T-cell-mediated mechanism. COREXIT 9500A did not induce immunosuppression in the murine model. PMID:21916747

  5. The Effectiveness of Various Attitude Indicator Display Sizes and Extended Horizon Lines on Attitude Maintenance in a Part-Task Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comstock, J. Raymond, Jr.; Jones, Leslie C.; Pope, Alan T.

    2003-01-01

    Spatial disorientation (SD) is a constant contributing factor to the rate of fatal aviation accidents. SD occurs as a result of perceptual errors that can be attributed in part to the inefficient presentation of synthetic orientation cues via the attitude indicator when external visual conditions are poor. Improvements in the design of the attitude indicator may help to eliminate instrumentation as a factor in the onset of SD. The goal of the present study was to explore several display concepts that may contribute to an improved attitude display. Specifically, the effectiveness of various display sizes, some that are used in current and some that are anticipated in future attitude displays that may incorporate Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) concepts, was assessed. In addition, a concept known as an extended horizon line or Malcolm Horizon (MH) was applied and evaluated. Paired with the MH, the novel concept of a fixed reference line representing the central horizontal plane of the aircraft was also tested. Subjects performance on an attitude control task and secondary math workload task was measured across the various display sizes and conditions. The results, with regard to display size, confirmed the bigger is better concept, yielding better performance with the larger display sizes. A clear and significant improvement in attitude task performance was found with the addition of the extended horizon line. The extended or MH seemed to equalize attitude performance across display sizes, even for a central or foveal display as small as three inches in width.

  6. New Horizons at Pluto

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, Paul; Nimmo, Francis

    2016-06-01

    The New Horizons mission has revealed Pluto and its moon Charon to be geologically active worlds. The familiar, yet exotic, landforms suggest that geologic processes operate similarly across the Solar System, even in its cold outer reaches.

  7. Infrared horizon locator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jalink, A., Jr. (Inventor)

    1973-01-01

    A precise method and apparatus for locating the earth's infrared horizon from space that is independent of season and latitude is described. First and second integrations of the earth's radiance profile are made from space to earth with the second delayed with respect to the first. The second integration is multiplied by a predetermined constant R and then compared with the first integration. When the two are equal the horizon is located.

  8. New Horizons Launch Contingency Effort

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yale; Lear, Matthew H.; McGrath, Brian E.; Heyler, Gene A.; Takashima, Naruhisa; Owings, W. Donald

    2007-01-01

    On 19 January 2006 at 2:00 PM EST, the NASA New Horizons spacecraft (SC) was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), FL, onboard an Atlas V 551/Centaur/STAR™ 48B launch vehicle (LV) on a mission to explore the Pluto Charon planetary system and possibly other Kuiper Belt Objects. It carried a single Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG). As part of the joint NASA/US Department of Energy (DOE) safety effort, contingency plans were prepared to address the unlikely events of launch accidents leading to a near-pad impact, a suborbital reentry, an orbital reentry, or a heliocentric orbit. As the implementing organization. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) had expanded roles in the New Horizons launch contingency effort over those for the Cassini mission and Mars Exploration Rovers missions. The expanded tasks included participation in the Radiological Control Center (RADCC) at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), preparation of contingency plans, coordination of space tracking assets, improved aerodynamics characterization of the RTG's 18 General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules, and development of spacecraft and RTG reentry breakup analysis tools. Other JHU/APL tasks were prediction of the Earth impact footprints (ElFs) for the GPHS modules released during the atmospheric reentry (for purposes of notification and recovery), prediction of the time of SC reentry from a potential orbital decay, pre-launch dissemination of ballistic coefficients of various possible reentry configurations, and launch support of an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on the JHU/APL campus. For the New Horizons launch, JHU/APL personnel at the RADCC and at the EOC were ready to implement any real-time launch contingency activities. A successful New Horizons launch and interplanetary injection precluded any further contingency actions. The New Horizons launch contingency was an interagency effort by several organizations. This paper

  9. Acute effects of non-weathered and weathered crude oil and dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident on the development of marine bivalve and echinoderm larvae.

    PubMed

    Stefansson, Emily S; Langdon, Chris J; Pargee, Suzanne M; Blunt, Susanna M; Gage, Susan J; Stubblefield, William A

    2016-08-01

    Acute toxicity tests (48-96-h duration) were conducted with larvae of 2 echinoderm species (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus and Dendraster excentricus) and 4 bivalve mollusk species (Crassostrea virginica, Crassostrea gigas, Mytilus galloprovincialis, and Mercenaria mercenaria). Developing larvae were exposed to water-accommodated fractions (WAFs) and chemically enhanced water-accommodated fractions (CEWAFs) of fresh and weathered oils collected from the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon incident. The WAFs (oils alone), CEWAFs (oils plus Corexit 9500A dispersant), and WAFs of Corexit alone were prepared using low-energy mixing. The WAFs of weathered oils had no effect on survival and development of echinoderm and bivalve larvae, whereas WAFs of fresh oils showed adverse effects on larval development. Similar toxicities were observed for weathered oil CEWAFs and WAFs prepared with Corexit alone for oyster (C. gigas and C. virginica) larvae, which were the most sensitive of the tested invertebrate species to Corexit. Mean 10% effective concentration values for total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dipropylene glycol n-butyl ether (a marker for Corexit) in the present study were higher than all concentrations reported in nearshore field samples collected during and after the Deepwater Horizon incident. The results suggest that water-soluble fractions of weathered oils and Corexit dispersant associated with the Deepwater Horizon incident had limited, if any, acute impacts on nearshore larvae of eastern oysters and clams, as well as other organisms with similar sensitivities to those of test species in the present study; however, exposure to sediments and long-term effects were not evaluated. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2016-2028. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26749266

  10. Metabolic Network Prediction of Drug Side Effects.

    PubMed

    Shaked, Itay; Oberhardt, Matthew A; Atias, Nir; Sharan, Roded; Ruppin, Eytan

    2016-03-23

    Drug side effects levy a massive cost on society through drug failures, morbidity, and mortality cases every year, and their early detection is critically important. Here, we describe the array of model-based phenotype predictors (AMPP), an approach that leverages medical informatics resources and a human genome-scale metabolic model (GSMM) to predict drug side effects. AMPP is substantially predictive (AUC > 0.7) for >70 drug side effects, including very serious ones such as interstitial nephritis and extrapyramidal disorders. We evaluate AMPP's predictive signal through cross-validation, comparison across multiple versions of a side effects database, and co-occurrence analysis of drug side effect associations in scientific abstracts (hypergeometric p value = 2.2e-40). AMPP outperforms a previous biochemical structure-based method in predicting metabolically based side effects (aggregate AUC = 0.65 versus 0.59). Importantly, AMPP enables the identification of key metabolic reactions and biomarkers that are predictive of specific side effects. Taken together, this work lays a foundation for future detection of metabolically grounded side effects during early stages of drug development. PMID:27135366

  11. Firewall or smooth horizon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ori, Amos

    2016-01-01

    Almheiri, Marolf, Polchinski, and Sully pointed out that for a sufficiently old black hole (BH), the set of assumptions known as the complementarity postulates appears to be inconsistent with the assumption of local regularity at the horizon. They concluded that the horizon of an old BH is likely to be the locus of local irregularity, a "firewall". Here I point out that if one adopts a different assumption, namely that semiclassical physics holds throughout its anticipated domain of validity, then the inconsistency is avoided, and the horizon retains its regularity. In this alternative view-point, the vast portion of the original BH information remains trapped inside the BH throughout the semiclassical domain of evaporation, and possibly leaks out later on. This appears to be an inevitable outcome of semiclassical gravity (if assumed to apply throughout its anticipated domain of validity).

  12. Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

    2008-01-01

    This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

  13. Instability of enclosed horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kay, Bernard S.

    2015-03-01

    We point out that there are solutions to the scalar wave equation on dimensional Minkowski space with finite energy tails which, if they reflect off a uniformly accelerated mirror due to (say) Dirichlet boundary conditions on it, develop an infinite stress-energy tensor on the mirror's Rindler horizon. We also show that, in the presence of an image mirror in the opposite Rindler wedge, suitable compactly supported arbitrarily small initial data on a suitable initial surface will develop an arbitrarily large stress-energy scalar near where the two horizons cross. Also, while there is a regular Hartle-Hawking-Israel-like state for the quantum theory between these two mirrors, there are coherent states built on it for which there are similar singularities in the expectation value of the renormalized stress-energy tensor. We conjecture that in other situations with analogous enclosed horizons such as a (maximally extended) Schwarzschild black hole in equilibrium in a (stationary spherical) box or the (maximally extended) Schwarzschild-AdS spacetime, there will be similar stress-energy singularities and almost-singularities—leading to instability of the horizons when gravity is switched on and matter and gravity perturbations are allowed for. All this suggests it is incorrect to picture a black hole in equilibrium in a box or a Schwarzschild-AdS black hole as extending beyond the past and future horizons of a single Schwarzschild (/Schwarzschild-AdS) wedge. It would thus provide new evidence for 't Hooft's brick wall model while seeming to invalidate the picture in Maldacena's ` Eternal black holes in AdS'. It would thereby also support the validity of the author's matter-gravity entanglement hypothesis and of the paper ` Brick walls and AdS/CFT' by the author and Ortíz.

  14. Spacetimes containing slowly evolving horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Kavanagh, William; Booth, Ivan

    2006-08-15

    Slowly evolving horizons are trapping horizons that are ''almost'' isolated horizons. This paper reviews their definition and discusses several spacetimes containing such structures. These include certain Vaidya and Tolman-Bondi solutions as well as (perturbatively) tidally distorted black holes. Taking into account the mass scales and orders of magnitude that arise in these calculations, we conjecture that slowly evolving horizons are the norm rather than the exception in astrophysical processes that involve stellar-scale black holes.

  15. Predictions and the Limiting Effects of Prequestions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanahan, Timothy

    A study examined the effects of teacher questioning and student prediction (purpose-setting procedures) upon the reading comprehension of 188 students in grades 3 through 6. Thirty-two constructed-answer questions were developed for use with an article about kangaroos, written in an expository style and approximately 900 words in length. Half of…

  16. Effect of O horizon and Forest Harvest Residue Manipulations on Soil Organic Matter Content and Composition of a Loblolly Pine Plantation in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatten, J.; Mack, J.; Dewey, J.; Sucre, E.; Leggett, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Forest harvest residues and forest floor materials are significant sources of mineral soil organic matter and nutrients for regenerating and establishing forests. Harvest residues in particular are occasionally removed, piled, or burned following harvesting. While the forest floor is never purposely removed during operational harvesting and site preparation, they could become in high demand as bioenergy markets develop. Weyerhaeuser Company established an experimental study to evaluate the effect of forest-floor manipulation on site productivity and soil carbon. This study was installed in a loblolly pine plantation near Millport, Alabama, USA on the Upper Gulf Coastal Plain to test both extremes from complete removal of harvest residues and forest floor to doubling of these materials. This study has been continuously monitored since its establishment in 1994. We have examined the effects of varying forest floor levels on the biomass, soil carbon content, and soil carbon composition in the context of these management activities. Above- and below-ground productivity, soil moisture, soil temperature, and nutrient dynamics have been related to soil organic carbon in mineral soil size/density fractionation and lignin and cutin biomarkers from the cupric oxide (CuO) oxidation technique. We have found that while removing litter and harvest residues has little effect on biomass production and soil carbon, importing litter and harvest residues increases forest productivity and soil carbon content. Interestingly, increased carbon was observed in all depths assessed (O horizon, 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60cm) suggesting that this practice may sequester organic carbon in deep soil horizons. Our biomarker analysis indicated that importing litter and harvest residues increased relative contributions from above ground sources at the 20-40cm depth and increased relative contributions from belowground sources at the 40-60cm depth. These results suggest that organic matter manipulations

  17. Topological deformation of isolated horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Liko, Tomas

    2008-03-15

    We show that the Gauss-Bonnet term can have physical effects in four dimensions. Specifically, the entropy of a black hole acquires a correction term that is proportional to the Euler characteristic of the cross sections of the horizon. While this term is constant for a single black hole, it will be a nontrivial function for a system with dynamical topologies such as black-hole mergers: it is shown that for certain values of the Gauss-Bonnet parameter, the second law of black-hole mechanics can be violated.

  18. Estimating the effect of tree uprooting on variation of soil horizon depth by confronting pedogenetic simulations to measurements in a Belgian loess area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finke, P. A.; Vanwalleghem, T.; Opolot, E.; Poesen, J.; Deckers, J.

    2013-12-01

    patterns of soil often do not reflect those of topographic controls. We attempted to identify possible causes of this by comparing observed and simulated soil horizon depths. Observed depths of E, Bt, BC, C1, and C2 horizons in loess-derived soils in Belgium showed a weak to absent relation to terrain attributes in a sloping area. We applied the soil genesis model SoilGen2.16 onto 108 1 × 1 m2 locations in a 1329 ha area to find possible causes. Two scenarios were simulated. Model 1 simulated soil development under undisturbed conditions, taking slope, aspect, and loess thickness as the only sources of variations. Model 2 additionally included a stochastic submodel to generate tree-uprooting events based on the exposure of trees to the wind. Outputs of both models were converted to depths of transitions between horizons, using an algorithm calibrated to horizon depths observed in the field. Model 1 showed strong correlations between terrain attributes and depths for all horizons, although surprisingly, regression kriging was not able to model all variations. Model 2 showed a weak to absent correlation for the upper horizons but still a strong correlation for the deeper horizons BC, C1, and C2. For the upper horizons the spatial variation strongly resembled that of the measurements. This is a strong indication that bioturbation in the course of soil formation due to treefalls influences spatial patterns of horizon depths.

  19. D region predictions. [effects on radio propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thrane, E. V.; Chakrabarty, D. K.; Deshpande, S. D.; Doherty, R. H.; Gregory, J. B.; Hargreaves, J. K.; Lastovicka, J.; Morris, P.; Piggott, W. R.; Reagan, J. B.

    1979-01-01

    Present knowledge of D region phenomena is briefly reviewed and the status of current methods of predicting their effects on radio propagation considered. The ELF, VLF and LF navigational and timing systems depend on the stability of the lower part of the D layer where these waves are reflected, whereas MF and HF waves are absorbed as they penetrate the region, in most cases mainly in the upper part of the layer. Possible methods of improving predictions, warnings, and real time operations are considered with particular stress on those which can be implemented in the near future.

  20. Refraction near the horizon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.; Liller, William

    1990-01-01

    Variations in astronomical refraction near the horizon are examined. Sunset timings, a sextant mounted on a tripod, and a temperature profile are utilized to derive the variations in refraction data, collected from 7 locations. It is determined that the refraction ranges from 0.234 to 1.678 deg with an rms deviation of 0.16, and it is observed that the variation is larger than previously supposed. Some applications for the variation of refraction value are discussed.

  1. LANDSAT-4 horizon scanner performance evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanow, S.; Chen, L. C.; Davis, W. M.; Stanley, J. P.

    1984-01-01

    Representative data spans covering a little more than a year since the LANDSAT-4 launch were analyzed to evaluate the flight performance of the satellite's horizon scanner. High frequency noise was filtered out by 128-point averaging. The effects of Earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and residual systematic errors are analyzed. A model for the predicted radiance effects is compared with the flight data and deficiencies in the radiance effects modeling are noted. Correction coefficients are provided for a finite Fourier series representation of the systematic errors in the data. Analysis of the seasonal dependence of the coefficients indicates the effects of some early mission problems with the reference attitudes which were computed by the onboard computer using star trackers and gyro data. The effects of sun and moon interference, unexplained anomalies in the data, and sensor noise characteristics and their power spectrum are described. The variability of full orbit data averages is shown. Plots of the sensor data for all the available data spans are included.

  2. Smooth horizons and quantum ripples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golovnev, Alexey

    2015-05-01

    Black holes are unique objects which allow for meaningful theoretical studies of strong gravity and even quantum gravity effects. An infalling and a distant observer would have very different views on the structure of the world. However, a careful analysis has shown that it entails no genuine contradictions for physics, and the paradigm of observer complementarity has been coined. Recently this picture was put into doubt. In particular, it was argued that in old black holes a firewall must form in order to protect the basic principles of quantum mechanics. This AMPS paradox has already been discussed in a vast number of papers with different attitudes and conclusions. Here we want to argue that a possible source of confusion is the neglect of quantum gravity effects. Contrary to widespread perception, it does not necessarily mean that effective field theory is inapplicable in rather smooth neighbourhoods of large black hole horizons. The real offender might be an attempt to consistently use it over the huge distances from the near-horizon zone of old black holes to the early radiation. We give simple estimates to support this viewpoint and show how the Page time and (somewhat more speculative) scrambling time do appear.

  3. Killing horizons around a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle

    SciTech Connect

    Farhoosh, H.; Zimmerman, R.L.

    1980-08-15

    The structure of the Killing horizon surrounding a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle which is emitting gravitational radiation is investigated. When expressed in terms of a coordinate system which is rigidly fixed to the particle undergoing uniform acceleration, the two inner horizons and ergoregion are similar to the horizons and ergoregion in the Kerr solution. These compact surfaces are distorted by the acceleration, being elongated in the forward direction and contracted in the backward direction. In addition to the two horizons that are similar to the Kerr solution, there is an additional noncompact horizon and an additional ergoregion which are caused by the acceleration. In general, the two ergoregions are disjoint, but as the acceleration parameter is sufficiently increased these ergoregions coalesce. A further increase of the acceleration will cause the two outer horizons to become degenerate and the ergoregion to vanish. An increase in the rotation parameter causes effects similar to those in the Kerr metric.

  4. Killing horizons around a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farhoosh, Hamid; Zimmerman, Robert L.

    1980-08-01

    The structure of the Killing horizon surrounding a uniformly accelerating and rotating particle which is emitting gravitational radiation is investigated. When expressed in terms of a coordinate system which is rigidly fixed to the particle undergoing uniform acceleration, the two inner horizons and ergoregion are similar to the horizons and ergoregion in the Kerr solution. These compact surfaces are distorted by the acceleration, being elongated in the forward direction and contracted in the backward direction. In addition to the two horizons that are similar to the Kerr solution, there is an additional noncompact horizon and an additional ergoregion which are caused by the acceleration. In general, the two ergoregions are disjoint, but as the acceleration parameter is sufficiently increased these ergoregions coalesce. A further increase of the acceleration will cause the two outer horizons to become degenerate and the ergoregion to vanish. An increase in the rotation parameter causes effects similar to those in the Kerr metric.

  5. New Horizons at Pluto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Artist's concept of the New Horizons spacecraft as it approaches Pluto and its largest moon, Charon, in July 2015. The craft's miniature cameras, radio science experiment, ultraviolet and infrared spectrometers and space plasma experiments will characterize the global geology and geomorphology of Pluto and Charon, map their surface compositions and temperatures, and examine Pluto's atmosphere in detail. The spacecraft's most prominent design feature is a nearly 7-foot (2.1-meter) dish antenna, through which it will communicate with Earth from as far as 4.7 billion miles (7.5 billion kilometers) away.

  6. Horizon thermodynamics and spacetime mappings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faraoni, Valerio; Vitagliano, Vincenzo

    2014-03-01

    When black holes are dynamical, event horizons are replaced by apparent and trapping horizons. Conformal and Kerr-Schild transformations are widely used in relation to dynamical black holes, and we study the behavior under such transformations of quantities related to the thermodynamics of these horizons, such as the Misner-Sharp-Hernandez mass (internal energy), the Kodama vector, surface gravity, and temperature. The transformation properties are not those expected on the basis of naive arguments.

  7. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL NO.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-07-01

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade Horizon Sensor (HS) systems continued this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (ExxonMobil), Mountain Coal Company West Elk Mine (Arch), and Ohio Valley Coal Company (OVC). Monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  8. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL NO.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-07-30

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining (CM) machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade Horizon Sensor (HS) systems has been ongoing this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (ExxonMobil), Mountain Coal Company West Elk Mine (Arch), Deserado Mining Company (Blue Mountain Energy), and The Ohio Valley Coal Company (TOVCC). Monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  9. Effect of Rainfall Aggregation on Hydrologic Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, H.; Brandes, E.

    2003-12-01

    Remotely sensed soil moisture data are becoming increasingly available, however the variability within the remotely sensed footprint is spatially averaged. The representation of spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture is essential for modeling processes that are nonlinearly related to soil moisture, such as the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. A number of studies have suggested that the spatial variability of soil moisture varies with wetness. At different locations, scales, and wetting and drying conditions, soil moisture patterns have been linked to topography, soil characteristics such as porosity and wilting point, and rainfall distribution. The objective of the proposed study is to examine the effects of rainfall temporal and spatial aggregation on spatial variability of soil moisture and runoff predictions on a 1000-km2 watershed. High-resolution radar-estimated rainfall from the IHOP2002 experiment will be used. These rain fields are aggregated in space and time. The hydrologic response of a distributed hydrologic model to the aggregated rain fields will be statistically compared with the response of the model to the original rainfall fields to quantify the impact of the spatial and temporal aggregation on hydrologic predictions. The proposed procedure will combine information from these simulations to determine what adjustments need to be made to the predicted fluxes.

  10. Transverse deformations of extreme horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Carmen; Lucietti, James

    2016-04-01

    We consider the inverse problem of determining all extreme black hole solutions to the Einstein equations with a prescribed near-horizon geometry. We investigate this problem by considering infinitesimal deformations of the near-horizon geometry along transverse null geodesics. We show that, up to a gauge transformation, the linearised Einstein equations reduce to an elliptic PDE for the extrinsic curvature of a cross-section of the horizon. We deduce that for a given near-horizon geometry there exists a finite dimensional moduli space of infinitesimal transverse deformations. We then establish a uniqueness theorem for transverse deformations of the extreme Kerr horizon. In particular, we prove that the only smooth axisymmetric transverse deformation of the near-horizon geometry of extreme Kerr, such that cross-sections of the horizon are marginally trapped surfaces, corresponds to that of the extreme Kerr black hole. Furthermore, we determine all smooth and biaxisymmetric transverse deformations of the near-horizon geometry of the five-dimensional extreme Myers-Perry black hole with equal angular momenta. We find a three parameter family of solutions such that cross-sections of the horizon are marginally trapped, which is more general than the known black hole solutions. We discuss the possibility that they correspond to new five-dimensional vacuum black holes.

  11. Technologies on the Horizon: Teachers Respond to the Horizon Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodges, Charles B.; Prater, Alyssa H.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate teachers' beliefs regarding the integration of technologies from the 2011 K-12 edition of the "Horizon Report" into their local, public school contexts. Teachers read the "Horizon Report" and then participated in an asynchronous, threaded discussion focusing on technologies they…

  12. Predicting the synergy of multiple stress effects.

    PubMed

    Liess, Matthias; Foit, Kaarina; Knillmann, Saskia; Schäfer, Ralf B; Liess, Hans-Dieter

    2016-01-01

    Toxicants and other, non-chemical environmental stressors contribute to the global biodiversity crisis. Examples include the loss of bees and the reduction of aquatic biodiversity. Although non-compliance with regulations might be contributing, the widespread existence of these impacts suggests that for example the current approach of pesticide risk assessment fails to protect biodiversity when multiple stressors concurrently affect organisms. To quantify such multiple stress effects, we analysed all applicable aquatic studies and found that the presence of environmental stressors increases individual sensitivity to toxicants (pesticides, trace metals) by a factor of up to 100. To predict this dependence, we developed the "Stress Addition Model" (SAM). With the SAM, we assume that each individual has a general stress capacity towards all types of specific stress that should not be exhausted. Experimental stress levels are transferred into general stress levels of the SAM using the stress-related mortality as a common link. These general stress levels of independent stressors are additive, with the sum determining the total stress exerted on a population. With this approach, we provide a tool that quantitatively predicts the highly synergistic direct effects of independent stressor combinations. PMID:27609131

  13. Predicting the synergy of multiple stress effects

    PubMed Central

    Liess, Matthias; Foit, Kaarina; Knillmann, Saskia; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Liess, Hans-Dieter

    2016-01-01

    Toxicants and other, non-chemical environmental stressors contribute to the global biodiversity crisis. Examples include the loss of bees and the reduction of aquatic biodiversity. Although non-compliance with regulations might be contributing, the widespread existence of these impacts suggests that for example the current approach of pesticide risk assessment fails to protect biodiversity when multiple stressors concurrently affect organisms. To quantify such multiple stress effects, we analysed all applicable aquatic studies and found that the presence of environmental stressors increases individual sensitivity to toxicants (pesticides, trace metals) by a factor of up to 100. To predict this dependence, we developed the “Stress Addition Model” (SAM). With the SAM, we assume that each individual has a general stress capacity towards all types of specific stress that should not be exhausted. Experimental stress levels are transferred into general stress levels of the SAM using the stress-related mortality as a common link. These general stress levels of independent stressors are additive, with the sum determining the total stress exerted on a population. With this approach, we provide a tool that quantitatively predicts the highly synergistic direct effects of independent stressor combinations. PMID:27609131

  14. Effect of Dissemination of 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid (2,4-D) Degradation Plasmids on 2,4-D Degradation and on Bacterial Community Structure in Two Different Soil Horizons

    PubMed Central

    Dejonghe, Winnie; Goris, Johan; El Fantroussi, Saïd; Höfte, Monica; De Vos, Paul; Verstraete, Willy; Top, Eva M.

    2000-01-01

    Transfer of the 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) degradation plasmids pEMT1 and pJP4 from an introduced donor strain, Pseudomonas putida UWC3, to the indigenous bacteria of two different horizons (A horizon, depth of 0 to 30 cm; B horizon, depth of 30 to 60 cm) of a 2,4-D-contaminated soil was investigated as a means of bioaugmentation. When the soil was amended with nutrients, plasmid transfer and enhanced degradation of 2,4-D were observed. These findings were most striking in the B horizon, where the indigenous bacteria were unable to degrade any of the 2,4-D (100 mg/kg of soil) during at least 22 days but where inoculation with either of the two plasmid donors resulted in complete 2,4-D degradation within 14 days. In contrast, in soils not amended with nutrients, inoculation of donors in the A horizon and subsequent formation of transconjugants (105 CFU/g of soil) could not increase the 2,4-D degradation rate compared to that of the noninoculated soil. However, donor inoculation in the nonamended B-horizon soil resulted in complete degradation of 2,4-D within 19 days, while no degradation at all was observed in noninoculated soil during 89 days. With plasmid pEMT1, this enhanced degradation seemed to be due only to transconjugants (105 CFU/g of soil), since the donor was already undetectable when degradation started. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of 16S rRNA genes showed that inoculation of the donors was followed by a shift in the microbial community structure of the nonamended B-horizon soils. The new 16S rRNA gene fragments in the DGGE profile corresponded with the 16S rRNA genes of 2,4-D-degrading transconjugant colonies isolated on agar plates. This result indicates that the observed change in the community was due to proliferation of transconjugants formed in soil. Overall, this work clearly demonstrates that bioaugmentation can constitute an effective strategy for cleanup of soils which are poor in nutrients and microbial activity

  15. The New Horizons Spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fountain, Glen H.; Kusnierkiewicz, David Y.; Hersman, Christopher B.; Herder, Timothy S.; Coughlin, Thomas B.; Gibson, William C.; Clancy, Deborah A.; Deboy, Christopher C.; Hill, T. Adrian; Kinnison, James D.; Mehoke, Douglas S.; Ottman, Geffrey K.; Rogers, Gabe D.; Stern, S. Alan; Stratton, James M.; Vernon, Steven R.; Williams, Stephen P.

    2008-10-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft was launched on 19 January 2006. The spacecraft was designed to provide a platform for seven instruments designated by the science team to collect and return data from Pluto in 2015. The design meets the requirements established by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Announcement of Opportunity AO-OSS-01. The design drew on heritage from previous missions developed at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) and other missions such as Ulysses. The trajectory design imposed constraints on mass and structural strength to meet the high launch acceleration consistent with meeting the AO requirement of returning data prior to the year 2020. The spacecraft subsystems were designed to meet tight resource allocations (mass and power) yet provide the necessary control and data handling finesse to support data collection and return when the one-way light time during the Pluto fly-by is 4.5 hours. Missions to the outer regions of the solar system (where the solar irradiance is 1/1000 of the level near the Earth) require a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) to supply electrical power. One RTG was available for use by New Horizons. To accommodate this constraint, the spacecraft electronics were designed to operate on approximately 200 W. The travel time to Pluto put additional demands on system reliability. Only after a flight time of approximately 10 years would the desired data be collected and returned to Earth. This represents the longest flight duration prior to the return of primary science data for any mission by NASA. The spacecraft system architecture provides sufficient redundancy to meet this requirement with a probability of mission success of greater than 0.85. The spacecraft is now on its way to Pluto, with an arrival date of 14 July 2015. Initial in-flight tests have verified that the spacecraft will meet the design requirements.

  16. Apparent horizons in binary black hole spacetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shoemaker, Deirdre Marie

    Over the last decade, advances in computing technology and numerical techniques have lead to the possible theoretical prediction of astrophysically relevant waveforms in numerical simulations. With the building of gravitational wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometric Gravitational-Wave Observatory, we stand at the epoch that will usher in the first experimental study of strong field general relativity. One candidate source for ground based detection of gravitational waveforms, the orbit and merger of two black holes, is of great interest to the relativity community. The binary black hole problem is the two-body problem in general relativity. It is a stringent dynamical test of the theory. The problem involves the evolution of the Einstein equation, a complex system of non-linear, dynamic, elliptic-hyperbolic equations intractable in closed form. Numerical relativists are now developing the technology to evolve the Einstein equation using numerical simulations. The generation of these numerical I codes is a ``theoretical laboratory'' designed to study strong field phenomena in general relativity. This dissertation reports the successful development and application of the first multiple apparent horizon tracker applied to the generic binary black hole problem. I have developed a method that combines a level set of surfaces with a curvature flow method. This method, which I call the level flow method, locates the surfaces of any apparent horizons in the spacetime. The surface location then is used to remove the singularities from the computational domain in the evolution code. I establish the following set of criteria desired in an apparent horizon tracker: (1)The robustness of the tracker due to its lack of dependence on small changes to the initial guess; (2)The generality of the tracker in its applicability to generic spacetimes including multiple back hole spacetimes; and (3)The efficiency of the tracker algorithm in CPU time. I demonstrate the apparent

  17. Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hitney, Herbert V.

    1989-09-01

    In recent years, electromagnetic tactical decision aids were developed to assess environmental effects on the performance of operational systems such as shipboard radars. In general, these systems have performed well and are now routinely used by operational forces to optimize their use of sensors and deployment of forces. In many cases, the existing tactical decision aid software was taken and used to assess the performance of proposed new sensors. Since the original software was not designed for this purpose, many deficiencies in such a use were soon identified. For example, most engineers prefer to graphically compare performance results as a single design parameter, such as radar pulse length, is varied over a range of possible values. Also, in designing a new system, one is usually more interested in the long-term statistical performance than in single-event performance that the tactical decision aids are normally designed to assess. The Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS) is a recent development effort tailored to engineering uses and based on the propagation models of the Integrated Refractive Effects Prediction System (IREPS). EREPS is hosted on IBM PC computers for maximum availability to the engineering community, and was developed using interactive graphics displays for optimum comparison studies. The models are designed in such a way as to give results within a few seconds to allow multiple design trade-off studies to be easily performed. EREPS Revision 1.00 was distributed to interested users in the summer of 1988 and is currently being revised for a summer 1989 distribution. Existing and planned capabilities will be presented along with some examples of applications.

  18. The effects of weathering and chemical dispersion on Deepwater Horizon crude oil toxicity to mahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) early life stages.

    PubMed

    Esbaugh, Andrew J; Mager, Edward M; Stieglitz, John D; Hoenig, Ronald; Brown, Tanya L; French, Barbara L; Linbo, Tiffany L; Lay, Claire; Forth, Heather; Scholz, Nathaniel L; Incardona, John P; Morris, Jeffrey M; Benetti, Daniel D; Grosell, Martin

    2016-02-01

    To better understand the impact of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) incident on commercially and ecologically important pelagic fish species, a mahi-mahi spawning program was developed to assess the effect of embryonic exposure to DWH crude oil with particular emphasis on the effects of weathering and dispersant on the magnitude of toxicity. Acute lethality (96 h LC50) ranged from 45.8 (28.4-63.1) μg l(-1) ΣPAH for wellhead (source) oil to 8.8 (7.4-10.3) μg l(-1) ΣPAH for samples collected from the surface slick, reinforcing previous work that weathered oil is more toxic on a ΣPAH basis. Differences in toxicity appear related to the amount of dissolved 3 ringed PAHs. The dispersant Corexit 9500 did not influence acute lethality of oil preparations. Embryonic oil exposure resulted in cardiotoxicity after 48 h, as evident from pericardial edema and reduced atrial contractility. Whereas pericardial edema appeared to correlate well with acute lethality at 96 h, atrial contractility did not. However, sub-lethal cardiotoxicity may impact long-term performance and survival. Dispersant did not affect the occurrence of pericardial edema; however, there was an apparent reduction in atrial contractility at 48 h of exposure. Pericardial edema at 48 h and lethality at 96 h were equally sensitive endpoints in mahi-mahi. PMID:26613518

  19. The Horizon Report. 2007 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2007

    2007-01-01

    This fourth edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on ongoing…

  20. The Horizon Report. 2006 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2006

    2006-01-01

    This third edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on ongoing discussions…

  1. The Horizon Report. 2004 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2004

    2004-01-01

    This first edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" details findings of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on an ongoing series of interviews…

  2. The Horizon Report. 2005 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Media Consortium, 2005

    2005-01-01

    This second edition of the New Media Consortium's (NMC) annual "Horizon Report" describes the continuing work of the Horizon Project, a research-oriented effort that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative expression within higher education. Drawing on an ongoing series…

  3. PLUTO'S SEASONS: NEW PREDICTIONS FOR NEW HORIZONS

    SciTech Connect

    Young, L. A.

    2013-04-01

    Since the last Pluto volatile transport models were published in 1996, we have (1) new stellar occultation data from 2002 and 2006-2012 that show roughly twice the pressure as the first definitive occultation from 1988, (2) new information about the surface properties of Pluto, (3) a spacecraft due to arrive at Pluto in 2015, and (4) a new volatile transport model that is rapid enough to allow a large parameter-space search. Such a parameter-space search coarsely constrained by occultation results reveals three broad solutions: a high-thermal inertia, large volatile inventory solution with permanent northern volatiles (PNVs; using the rotational north pole convention); a lower thermal-inertia, smaller volatile inventory solution with exchanges of volatiles between hemispheres and a pressure plateau beyond 2015 (exchange with pressure plateau, EPP); and solutions with still smaller volatile inventories, with exchanges of volatiles between hemispheres and an early collapse of the atmosphere prior to 2015 (exchange with early collapse, EEC). PNV and EPP are favored by stellar occultation data, but EEC cannot yet be definitively ruled out without more atmospheric modeling or additional occultation observations and analysis.

  4. Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

    PubMed Central

    Deyle, Ethan R.; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D.; Munch, Stephan B.; Perretti, Charles T.; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George

    2013-01-01

    For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299

  5. Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine.

    PubMed

    Deyle, Ethan R; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D; Munch, Stephan B; Perretti, Charles T; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George

    2013-04-16

    For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299

  6. Horizon crossing and inflation with large {eta}

    SciTech Connect

    Kinney, William H.

    2005-07-15

    I examine the standard formalism of calculating curvature perturbations in inflation at horizon crossing, and derive a general relation which must be satisfied for the horizon-crossing formalism to be valid. This relation is satisfied for the usual cases of power-law and slow-roll inflation. I then consider a model for which the relation is strongly violated, and the curvature perturbation evolves rapidly on superhorizon scales. This model has Hubble slow-roll parameter {eta}=3, but predicts a scale-invariant spectrum of density perturbations. I consider the case of hybrid inflation with large {eta}, and show that such solutions do not solve the '{eta} problem' in supergravity. These solutions correspond to field evolution which has not yet relaxed to the inflationary attractor solution, and may make possible new, more natural models on the string landscape.

  7. Gravity at the horizon: on relativistic effects, CMB-LSS correlations and ultra-large scales in Horndeski's theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renk, Janina; Zumalacárregui, Miguel; Montanari, Francesco

    2016-07-01

    We address the impact of consistent modifications of gravity on the largest observable scales, focusing on relativistic effects in galaxy number counts and the cross-correlation between the matter large scale structure (LSS) distribution and the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Our analysis applies to a very broad class of general scalar-tensor theories encoded in the Horndeski Lagrangian and is fully consistent on linear scales, retaining the full dynamics of the scalar field and not assuming quasi-static evolution. As particular examples we consider self-accelerating Covariant Galileons, Brans-Dicke theory and parameterizations based on the effective field theory of dark energy, using the hi class code to address the impact of these models on relativistic corrections to LSS observables. We find that especially effects which involve integrals along the line of sight (lensing convergence, time delay and the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect—ISW) can be considerably modified, and even lead to O(1000%) deviations from General Relativity in the case of the ISW effect for Galileon models, for which standard probes such as the growth function only vary by O(10%). These effects become dominant when correlating galaxy number counts at different redshifts and can lead to ~ 50% deviations in the total signal that might be observable by future LSS surveys. Because of their integrated nature, these deep-redshift cross-correlations are sensitive to modifications of gravity even when probing eras much before dark energy domination. We further isolate the ISW effect using the cross-correlation between LSS and CMB temperature anisotropies and use current data to further constrain Horndeski models. Forthcoming large-volume galaxy surveys using multiple-tracers will search for all these effects, opening a new window to probe gravity and cosmic acceleration at the largest scales available in our universe.

  8. Louisiana residents' self-reported lack of information following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Effects on seafood consumption and risk perception.

    PubMed

    Simon-Friedt, Bridget R; Howard, Jessi L; Wilson, Mark J; Gauthe, David; Bogen, Donald; Nguyen, Daniel; Frahm, Ericka; Wickliffe, Jeffrey K

    2016-09-15

    In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill adversely impacted many communities along the Gulf of Mexico. Effects on Gulf waters, marshes, aquatic life, and fisheries were evident in the following days, months, and years. Through studying affected communities' perceptions regarding the DWH accident, we aim to identify behavioral changes, understand public information sources, and inform dissemination strategies that improve communications from regulatory agencies. Over a three-year period (2012-2015), residents (n = 192) from 7 coastal parishes in southeast Louisiana were surveyed about their perceptions and behaviors before, during, and after the DWH accident. Self-reported consumption of local seafood decreased significantly (50%) during the DWH oil spill but returned to pre-event reported levels by 2015. However, negative seafood quality perceptions remain and have not returned to what were generally positive pre-event levels. Over 30% of study participants trust relatives, friends, and neighbors more than government officials or scientists as information sources regarding locally harvested seafood. Importantly, nearly 50% of participants report that they lack the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the safety of consuming local seafood. We conclude that a lack of information and trust in government agencies exacerbated negative perceptions of oil spill-related dangers. In some cases, overestimation of perceived dangers likely led to behavioral modifications that persist today. Efforts should be made to improve relationships between public health agencies and communities in order to properly inform all citizens of risks following environmental disasters. PMID:27289418

  9. The devil is in the specificity: the negative effect of prediction specificity on prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min

    2013-07-01

    In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making. PMID:23660410

  10. The Effects of Beginning Reading Instruction in the "Horizons" Reading Program on the Reading Skills of Third and Fourth Graders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tobin, Kevin G.

    2004-01-01

    This study is a follow-up on a previous study of the effects of 2 beginning reading programs implemented in 1st grade. In the previous study, 40 1st-grade students who were matched based on their Concepts About Print Test (Clay, 1979) and Phonological Segmentation Fluency from the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good &…

  11. Predictive biochemical assays for late radiation effects

    SciTech Connect

    Rubin, P.; Finkelstein, J.N.; Siemann, D.W.; Shapiro, D.L.; Van Houtte, P.; Penney, D.P.

    1986-04-01

    Surfactant precursors or other products of Type II pneumocytes have the potential to be the first biochemical marker for late radiation effects. This is particularly clinically important in the combined modality era because of the frequent occurrence of pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis secondary to radiation or chemotherapy. Accordingly, correlative studies have been pursued with the Type II pneumocyte as a beginning point to understand the complex pathophysiology of radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis. From our ultrastructural and biochemical studies, it is evident that Type II pneumocytes are an early target of radiation and the release of surfactant into the alveolus shortly after exposure persists for days and weeks. Through the use of lavaging techniques, alveolar surfactant has been elevated after pulmonary irradiation. In three murine strains and in the rabbit, there is a strong correlation with surfactant release at 7 and/or 28 days in vivo with later lethality in months. In vitro studies using cultures of type II pneumocytes also demonstrate dose response and tolerance factors that are comparable to the in vivo small and large animal diagnostic models. New markers are being developed to serve as a predictive index for later lethal pneumonopathies. With the development of these techniques, the search for early biochemical markers in man has been undertaken. Through the use of biochemical, histological, and ultrastructural techniques, a causal relationship between radiation effects on type II pneumocytes, pulmonary cells, endothelial cells of blood vessels, and their roles in the production of pneumonitis and fibrosis will evolve.

  12. Effects of streamline curvature on separation prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arolla, Sunil K.; Durbin, Paul A.

    2009-11-01

    In this study, the effects of streamline curvature on prediction of flow separation are investigated. The geometry is a circulation control airfoil, a high-lift configuration that has been under extensive research for more than two decades. A tangential jet is blown over a thick, rounded trailing edge, using the Coanda effect to delay separation. An attempt is made to understand, through numerical simulations, the dynamics of turbulent separation and reattachment on the Coanda surface. Highly curved, attached recirculation regions are seen to form. A physics based curvature correction proposed by Pettersson-Reif et al. (1999) is used in conjunction with ζ-f turbulence model. The chord-based Reynolds number is Re = 10^6. Two jet momentum coefficients of Cμ=0.03 and 0.1 are computed. In this paper, comparisons between the computed and experimental pressure distributions, velocity profiles and the position of flow detachment are presented. Comparisons with other closures such as Menter's SST model are also discussed.

  13. 50 CFR 622.14 - Area closures related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Horizon oil spill. 622.14 Section 622.14 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT... spill. (a) Caribbean EEZ area closure related to Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Effective May 11, 2010... Web site: http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/deepwater_horizon_oil_spill.htm. (b) Gulf EEZ area closure...

  14. The Cauchy horizon singularity inside Kerr black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burko, Lior M.; Khanna, Gaurav

    2016-03-01

    The numerical technology that allows for the careful evolution of linearized fields inside Kerr black holes and the study of their behavior approaching the Cauchy horizon singularity includes a number of interesting aspects. The latter include compactified hyperboloidal coordinates and foliation, mixed type hyperbolic-elliptic PDE, and initial data evolution where all equal-coordinate hypersurfaces are spacelike. We review the need for the numerical technology that allows for the solution of the spin-2 Teukolsky equation inside Kerr black holes, and discuss the main features thereof. We present new results about the numerical properties of the Cauchy horizon singularity and their correspondence with the predictions of perturbative analysis. We then discuss present directions of study, which include the sub-dominant azimuthal modes, approaching the Cauchy horizon singularity along timelike directions, approaching the Marolf-Ori (``outflying'') singularity and the studying the fields along the Cauchy horizon.

  15. Solar-terrestrial predictions proceedings. Volume 4: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnelly, R. E. (Editor)

    1980-01-01

    Papers about prediction of ionospheric and radio propagation conditions based primarily on empirical or statistical relations is discussed. Predictions of sporadic E, spread F, and scintillations generally involve statistical or empirical predictions. The correlation between solar-activity and terrestrial seismic activity and the possible relation between solar activity and biological effects is discussed.

  16. Accurate, reliable prototype earth horizon sensor head

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwarz, F.; Cohen, H.

    1973-01-01

    The design and performance is described of an accurate and reliable prototype earth sensor head (ARPESH). The ARPESH employs a detection logic 'locator' concept and horizon sensor mechanization which should lead to high accuracy horizon sensing that is minimally degraded by spatial or temporal variations in sensing attitude from a satellite in orbit around the earth at altitudes in the 500 km environ 1,2. An accuracy of horizon location to within 0.7 km has been predicted, independent of meteorological conditions. This corresponds to an error of 0.015 deg-at 500 km altitude. Laboratory evaluation of the sensor indicates that this accuracy is achieved. First, the basic operating principles of ARPESH are described; next, detailed design and construction data is presented and then performance of the sensor under laboratory conditions in which the sensor is installed in a simulator that permits it to scan over a blackbody source against background representing the earth space interface for various equivalent plant temperatures.

  17. HORIZON SENSING (PROPOSAL No.51)

    SciTech Connect

    Larry G. Stolarczyk, Sc.D.

    2002-04-30

    Real-time horizon sensing on continuous mining machines is becoming an industry tool. Installation and testing of production-grade HS systems has been ongoing this quarter at Monterey Coal Company (EXXON), FMC Trona, Twentymile Coal Company (RAG America), and SASOL Coal. Detailed monitoring of system function, user experience, and mining benefits is ongoing. All horizon sensor components have finished MSHA (U.S.) and IEC (International) certification.

  18. Autonomous navigation accuracy using simulated horizon sensor and sun sensor observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pease, G. E.; Hendrickson, H. T.

    1980-01-01

    A relatively simple autonomous system which would use horizon crossing indicators, a sun sensor, a quartz oscillator, and a microprogrammed computer is discussed. The sensor combination is required only to effectively measure the angle between the centers of the Earth and the Sun. Simulations for a particular orbit indicate that 2 km r.m.s. orbit determination uncertainties may be expected from a system with 0.06 deg measurement uncertainty. A key finding is that knowledge of the satellite orbit plane orientation can be maintained to this level because of the annual motion of the Sun and the predictable effects of Earth oblateness. The basic system described can be updated periodically by transits of the Moon through the IR horizon crossing indicator fields of view.

  19. Does exposure prediction bias health effect estimation? The relationship between confounding adjustment and exposure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Dominici, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    In environmental epidemiology, we are often faced with two challenges. First, an exposure prediction model is needed to estimate the exposure to an agent of interest, ideally at the individual level. Second, when estimating the health-effect associated with the exposure, confounding adjustment is needed in the health-effects regression model. The current literature addresses these two challenges separately. That is, methods that account for measurement error in the predicted exposure often fail to acknowledge the possibility of confounding, while methods designed to control confounding often fail to acknowledge that the exposure has been predicted. In this paper, we consider exposure prediction and confounding adjustment in a health-effects regression model simultaneously. By using theoretical arguments and simulation studies, we show that the bias of a health-effect estimate is influenced by the exposure prediction model, the type of confounding adjustment used in the health-effects regression model, and the relationship between these two. Moreover, we argue that even with a health-effects regression model that properly adjusts for confounding, the use of a predicted exposure can bias the health-effect estimate unless all confounders included in the health-effects regression model are also included in the exposure prediction model. While these results of this paper were motivated by studies of environmental contaminants, they apply more broadly to any context where an exposure needs to be predicted. PMID:24815302

  20. Physical process first law for bifurcate Killing horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Amsel, Aaron J.; Marolf, Donald; Virmani, Amitabh

    2008-01-15

    The physical process version of the first law for black holes states that the passage of energy and angular momentum through the horizon results in a change in area ({kappa}/8{pi}){delta}A={delta}E-{omega}{delta}J, so long as this passage is quasistationary. A similar physical process first law can be derived for any bifurcate Killing horizon in any spacetime dimension d{>=}3 using much the same argument. However, to make this law nontrivial, one must show that sufficiently quasistationary processes do in fact occur. In particular, one must show that processes exist for which the shear and expansion remain small, and in which no new generators are added to the horizon. Thorne, MacDonald, and Price considered related issues when an object falls across a d=4 black hole horizon. By generalizing their argument to arbitrary d{>=}3 and to any bifurcate Killing horizon, we derive a condition under which these effects are controlled and the first law applies. In particular, by providing a nontrivial first law for Rindler horizons, our work completes the parallel between the mechanics of such horizons and those of black holes for d{>=}3. We also comment on the situation for d=2.

  1. Information Horizons in Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sneppen, Kim

    2005-03-01

    We investigate how the structure constrain specific communication in social-, man-made and biological networks. We find that human networks of governance and collaboration are predictable on teat-a-teat level, reflecting well defined pathways, but globally inefficient (1). In contrast, the Internet tends to have better overall communication abilities, more alternative pathways, and is therefore more robust. Between these extremes are the molecular network of living organisms. Further, for most real world networks we find that communication ability is favored by topology on small distances, but disfavored at larger distances (2,3,4). We discuss the topological implications in terms of modularity and the positioning of hubs in the networks (5,6). Finally we introduce some simple models which demonstarte how communication may shape the structure of in particular man made networks (7,8). 1) K. Sneppen, A. Trusina, M. Rosvall (2004). Hide and seek on complex networks [cond-mat/0407055] 2) M. Rosvall, A. Trusina, P. Minnhagen and K. Sneppen (2004). Networks and Cities: An Information Perspective [cond-mat/0407054]. In PRL. 3) A. Trusina, M. Rosvall, K. Sneppen (2004). Information Horizons in Networks. [cond-mat/0412064] 4) M. Rosvall, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen (2004). Navigating Networks with Limited Information. [cond-mat/0412051] 5) S. Maslov and K. Sneppen (2002). Specificity and stability in topology of protein networks Science 296, 910-913 [cond-mat/0205380]. 6) A. Trusina, S. Maslov, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen Hierarchy Measures in Complex Networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 178702 [cond-mat/0308339]. 7) M. Rosvall and K. Sneppen (2003). Modeling Dynamics of Information Networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 178701 [cond-mat/0308399]. 8) B-J. Kim, A. Trusina, P. Minnhagen, K. Sneppen (2003). Self Organized Scale-Free Networks from Merging and Regeneration. nlin.AO/0403006. In European Journal of Physics.

  2. Eye-pupil displacement and prediction: effects on residual wavefront in adaptive optics retinal imaging

    PubMed Central

    Kulcsár, Caroline; Raynaud, Henri-François; Garcia-Rissmann, Aurea

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of pupil displacements on the best achievable performance of retinal imaging adaptive optics (AO) systems, using 52 trajectories of horizontal and vertical displacements sampled at 80 Hz by a pupil tracker (PT) device on 13 different subjects. This effect is quantified in the form of minimal root mean square (rms) of the residual phase affecting image formation, as a function of the delay between PT measurement and wavefront correction. It is shown that simple dynamic models identified from data can be used to predict horizontal and vertical pupil displacements with greater accuracy (in terms of average rms) over short-term time horizons. The potential impact of these improvements on residual wavefront rms is investigated. These results allow to quantify the part of disturbances corrected by retinal imaging systems that are caused by relative displacements of an otherwise fixed or slowy-varying subject-dependent aberration. They also suggest that prediction has a limited impact on wavefront rms and that taking into account PT measurements in real time improves the performance of AO retinal imaging systems. PMID:27231607

  3. Eye-pupil displacement and prediction: effects on residual wavefront in adaptive optics retinal imaging.

    PubMed

    Kulcsár, Caroline; Raynaud, Henri-François; Garcia-Rissmann, Aurea

    2016-03-01

    This paper studies the effect of pupil displacements on the best achievable performance of retinal imaging adaptive optics (AO) systems, using 52 trajectories of horizontal and vertical displacements sampled at 80 Hz by a pupil tracker (PT) device on 13 different subjects. This effect is quantified in the form of minimal root mean square (rms) of the residual phase affecting image formation, as a function of the delay between PT measurement and wavefront correction. It is shown that simple dynamic models identified from data can be used to predict horizontal and vertical pupil displacements with greater accuracy (in terms of average rms) over short-term time horizons. The potential impact of these improvements on residual wavefront rms is investigated. These results allow to quantify the part of disturbances corrected by retinal imaging systems that are caused by relative displacements of an otherwise fixed or slowy-varying subject-dependent aberration. They also suggest that prediction has a limited impact on wavefront rms and that taking into account PT measurements in real time improves the performance of AO retinal imaging systems. PMID:27231607

  4. Dynamical AdS strings across horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, Takaaki; Murata, Keiju

    2016-03-01

    We examine the nonlinear classical dynamics of a fundamental string in anti-de Sitter spacetime. The string is dual to the flux tube between an external quark-antiquark pair in {N}=4 super Yang-Mills theory. We perturb the string by shaking the endpoints and compute its time evolution numerically. We find that with sufficiently strong perturbations the string continues extending and plunges into the Poincaré horizon. In the evolution, effective horizons are also dynamically created on the string worldsheet. The quark and antiquark are thus causally disconnected, and the string transitions to two straight strings. The forces acting on the endpoints vanish with a power law whose slope depends on the perturbations. The condition for this transition to occur is that energy injection exceeds the static energy between the quark-antiquark pair.

  5. Status of the JPL Horizons Ephemeris System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgini, Jon D.

    2015-08-01

    Since 1996, the NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory on-line Horizons system has provided open access to the latest JPL orbit solutions through customizable ephemeris generation and searches. Currently, high-precision ephemerides for more than 683,000 objects are available: all known solar system bodies, several dozen spacecraft, system barycenters, and some libration points.Since inception, Horizons has produced 150 million ephemeris products in response to 70.4 million connections by 800,000 unique IP addresses. Recent usage is typically 6000 unique users requesting 4,000,000 ephemeris products per month.Horizons is freely accessible without an account and may be used and automated through any of three interfaces: interactive telnet connection, web-browser form, or by sending e-mail command-files.Asteroid and comet ephemerides are numerically integrated on request using JPL's DASTCOM5 database of initial conditions which is kept current by a separate process; as new measurements and discoveries are reported by the Minor Planet Center, they are automatically processed into new JPL orbit solutions. Radar targets and other objects of high interest have their orbit solutions manually examined and updated into the database.For asteroids and comets, SPK files may be dynamically created using Horizons. This is effectively a recording of the integrator output. The binary files may then be efficiently interpolated by user software to exactly reproduce the trajectory without having to duplicate the numerically integrated n-body dynamical model or PPN equations of motion.Other Horizons output is numerical and in the form of plain-text observer, vector, osculating element, and close-approach tables. More than one hundred quantities can be requested in various time-scales and coordinate systems. For asteroids and comets, statistical uncertainties can be mapped to output times to assess position and motion uncertainties.Horizons is consistent with the DE431 solar system solution

  6. The Effect of 3 Versus 6 Years of Zoledronic Acid Treatment of Osteoporosis: A Randomized Extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT)

    PubMed Central

    Black, Dennis M; Reid, Ian R; Boonen, Steven; Bucci-Rechtweg, Christina; Cauley, Jane A; Cosman, Felicia; Cummings, Steven R; Hue, Trisha F; Lippuner, Kurt; Lakatos, Peter; Leung, Ping Chung; Man, Zulema; Martinez, Ruvie Lou Maria; Tan, Monique; Ruzycky, Mary Ellen; Su, Guoqin; Eastell, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Zoledronic acid 5 mg (ZOL) annually for 3 years reduces fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. To investigate long-term effects of ZOL on bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk, the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic acid Once Yearly–Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT) was extended to 6 years. In this international, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled extension trial, 1233 postmenopausal women who received ZOL for 3 years in the core study were randomized to 3 additional years of ZOL (Z6, n = 616) or placebo (Z3P3, n = 617). The primary endpoint was femoral neck (FN) BMD percentage change from year 3 to 6 in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Secondary endpoints included other BMD sites, fractures, biochemical bone turnover markers, and safety. In years 3 to 6, FN-BMD remained constant in Z6 and dropped slightly in Z3P3 (between-treatment difference = 1.04%; 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 1.7; p = 0.0009) but remained above pretreatment levels. Other BMD sites showed similar differences. Biochemical markers remained constant in Z6 but rose slightly in Z3P3, remaining well below pretreatment levels in both. New morphometric vertebral fractures were lower in the Z6 (n = 14) versus Z3P3 (n = 30) group (odds ratio = 0.51; p = 0.035), whereas other fractures were not different. Significantly more Z6 patients had a transient increase in serum creatinine >0.5 mg/dL (0.65% versus 2.94% in Z3P3). Nonsignificant increases in Z6 of atrial fibrillation serious adverse events (2.0% versus 1.1% in Z3P3; p = 0.26) and stroke (3.1% versus 1.5% in Z3P3; p = 0.06) were seen. Postdose symptoms were similar in both groups. Reports of hypertension were significantly lower in Z6 versus Z3P3 (7.8% versus 15.1%, p < 0.001). Small differences in bone density and markers in those who continued versus those who stopped treatment suggest residual effects, and therefore, after 3 years of annual ZOL, many patients may discontinue

  7. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael; Dicks, Lynn V; Dinsdale, Jason; Entwistle, Abigail C; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A; Monk, Kathryn A; Ockendon, Nancy; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D; Tonneijck, Femke H; Wintle, Bonnie C

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic. PMID:25433442

  8. Horizon Science Experiment for Mars Global Surveyor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, T. Z.

    1997-07-01

    The Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly on the MGS orbiter monitors the orientation of the spacecraft relative to the limb by sensing atmospheric emission in the 15 mu m CO2 band. These data are used to maintain nadir pointing for the remote sensing instrument suite. The set of 5.5deg tall triangular fields of view normally straddle the limb, and cover quadrants 90deg apart around the limb. As an engineering device, the MHSA benefits from Mars' atmosphere being spatially bland at 15 mu m. However, these data will carry information about the thermal state of the atmosphere, which is subject to diurnal, seasonal, latitudinal, and dust-storm related variations, as well as possible wave effects. The Mariner 7 IRS, Mariner 9 IRIS, and Viking IRTM all demonstrated such variability. The Horizon Science Experiment (HORSE) is intended to glean new insight into atmospheric variation from the MGS horizon sensors, with continuous data flow to the Earth in the engineering stream, and a rapid buildup of spatial coverage. MHSA data will also be used to monitor atmospheric thermal behavior during the aerobraking of MGS in late 1997.

  9. Deepwater Horizon Situation Report #5

    SciTech Connect

    2010-06-10

    At approximately 11:00 pm EDT April 20, 2010 an explosion occurred aboard the Deepwater Horizon mobile offshore drilling unit (MODU) located 52 miles Southeast of Venice, LA and 130 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA. The MODU was drilling an exploratory well and was not producing oil at the time of the incident. The Deepwater Horizon MODU sank 1,500 feet northwest of the well site. Detailed information on response and recovery operations can be found at: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

  10. Effects of Prediction and Contextual Support on Lexical Processing: Prediction takes Precedence

    PubMed Central

    Brothers, Trevor; Swaab, Tamara Y.; Traxler, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Readers may use contextual information to anticipate and pre-activate specific lexical items during reading. However, prior studies have not clearly dissociated the effects of accurate lexical prediction from other forms of contextual facilitation such as plausibility or semantic priming. In this study, we measured electrophysiological responses to predicted and unpredicted target words in passages providing varying levels of contextual support. This method was used to isolate the neural effects of prediction from other potential contextual influences on lexical processing. While both prediction and discourse context influenced ERP amplitudes within the time range of the N400, the effects of prediction occurred much more rapidly, preceding contextual facilitation by approximately 100ms. In addition, a frontal, post-N400 positivity (PNP) was modulated by both prediction accuracy and the overall plausibility of the preceding passage. These results suggest a unique temporal primacy for prediction in facilitating lexical access. They also suggest that the frontal PNP may index the costs of revising discourse representations following an incorrect lexical prediction. PMID:25497522

  11. NIF featured on BBC "Horizon"

    ScienceCinema

    Brian Cox

    2010-09-01

    The National Ignition Facility, the world's largest laser system, located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was featured in the BBC broadcast "Horizon" hosted by physicist Brian Cox. Here is the NIF portion of the program, which was entitled "Can We Make A Star On Earth?" This video is used with the express permission of the BBC.

  12. Common Ground: Expanding Our Horizons.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDevitt, Michele J.

    In "Common Ground: Dialogue, Understanding, and the Teaching of Composition," Kurt Spellmeyer seeks to familiarize students and teachers with the linguistic and cultural no-man's-land separating them. Reinstating the value of two writing conventions often used by traditional students--expressive and commonplaces--can help expand on the horizons of…

  13. New Horizons in Education, 2000.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Kwok Keung, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    This document contains the May and November 2000 issues of "New Horizons in Education," with articles in English and Chinese. The May issue includes the following articles: "A Key to Successful Environmental Education: Teacher Trainees' Attitude, Behaviour, and Knowledge" (Kevin Chung Wai Lui, Eric Po Keung Tsang, Sing Lai Chan); "Critical…

  14. New Horizons Mission to Pluto

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delgado, Luis G.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the trajectory that will take the New Horizons Mission to Pluto. Included are photographs of the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, the assembled vehicle as it is being moved to the launch pad and the launch. Also shown are diagrams of the assembled parts with identifying part names.

  15. NIF featured on BBC "Horizon"

    SciTech Connect

    Brian Cox

    2010-01-12

    The National Ignition Facility, the world's largest laser system, located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was featured in the BBC broadcast "Horizon" hosted by physicist Brian Cox. Here is the NIF portion of the program, which was entitled "Can We Make A Star On Earth?" This video is used with the express permission of the BBC.

  16. Predicting Effective Disciplinary Styles of Teachers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bush, Doris W.; Achilles, C. M.

    1986-01-01

    Questionnaires examining teachers' personality style and attitudes about pupil control show that, among the unidentified number sampled teaching grades seven through eight, humanistic methods are more effective than authoritarian controls. (10 references) (CJH)

  17. Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Dormann, Carsten F; Schweiger, Oliver; Arens, P; Augenstein, I; Aviron, St; Bailey, Debra; Baudry, J; Billeter, R; Bugter, R; Bukácek, R; Burel, F; Cerny, M; Cock, Raphaël De; De Blust, Geert; DeFilippi, R; Diekötter, Tim; Dirksen, J; Durka, W; Edwards, P J; Frenzel, M; Hamersky, R; Hendrickx, Frederik; Herzog, F; Klotz, St; Koolstra, B; Lausch, A; Le Coeur, D; Liira, J; Maelfait, J P; Opdam, P; Roubalova, M; Schermann-Legionnet, Agnes; Schermann, N; Schmidt, T; Smulders, M J M; Speelmans, M; Simova, P; Verboom, J; van Wingerden, Walter; Zobel, M

    2008-03-01

    Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections. PMID:18070098

  18. Predicting Mass Media Effects: A Cognitive Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Thomas F.

    In this theoretical working paper, an attempt is made to pull together the two areas of cognitive information processing and emotional arousal, in order to provide a fuller framework for examining media effects. The development of a cognitive-behavioral index is proposed as a research tool resulting from this merger of areas, as are a number of…

  19. Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. PMID:27260782

  20. The Malcolm horizon: History and future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malcolm, R.

    1984-01-01

    The development of the Malcolm Horizon, a peripheral vision horizon used in flight simulation, is discussed. A history of the horizon display is presented as well as a brief overview of vision physiology, and the role balance plays is spatial orientation. Avenues of continued research in subconscious cockpit instrumentation are examined.

  1. Prediction of effective thermal conductivity of cellular ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Fu, X.; Viskanta, R.; Gore, J.P.

    1998-02-01

    Two unit cell based models have been developed to predict the effective thermal conductivity of porous materials using the thermal-circuit method. The first unit cell is a cubic-shaped box. The second unit cell is formed by a solid cube which is voided centrally by a sphere. The model predictions of the effective thermal conductivity of cellular ceramics are compared with experimental data.

  2. Yukawa unification predictions with effective "mirage" mediation.

    PubMed

    Anandakrishnan, Archana; Raby, Stuart

    2013-11-22

    In this Letter we analyze the consequences, for the LHC, of gauge and third family Yukawa coupling unification with a particular set of boundary conditions defined at the grand unified theory (GUT) scale, which we characterize as effective "mirage" mediation. We perform a global χ2 analysis including the observables M(W), M(Z), G(F), α(em)(-1), α(s)(M(Z)), M(t), m(b)(m(b)), M(τ), BR(B→X(s)γ), BR(B(s)→μ(+)μ(-)), and M(h). The fit is performed in the minimal supersymmetric standard model in terms of 10 GUT scale parameters, while tanβ and μ are fixed at the weak scale. We find good fits to the low energy data and a supersymmetry spectrum which is dramatically different than previously studied in the context of Yukawa unification. PMID:24313477

  3. Yukawa Unification Predictions with Effective ``Mirage'' Mediation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandakrishnan, Archana; Raby, Stuart

    2013-11-01

    In this Letter we analyze the consequences, for the LHC, of gauge and third family Yukawa coupling unification with a particular set of boundary conditions defined at the grand unified theory (GUT) scale, which we characterize as effective “mirage” mediation. We perform a global χ2 analysis including the observables MW, MZ, GF, αem-1, αs(MZ), Mt, mb(mb), Mτ, BR(B→Xsγ), BR(Bs→μ+μ-), and Mh. The fit is performed in the minimal supersymmetric standard model in terms of 10 GUT scale parameters, while tan⁡β and μ are fixed at the weak scale. We find good fits to the low energy data and a supersymmetry spectrum which is dramatically different than previously studied in the context of Yukawa unification.

  4. Fermion tunneling from dynamical horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Criscienzo, R.; Vanzo, L.

    2008-06-01

    The instability against emission of fermionic particles by the trapping horizon of an evolving black hole is analyzed and confirmed using the Hamilton-Jacobi tunneling method. This method automatically selects one special expression for the surface gravity of a changing horizon. The results also apply to point masses embedded in an expanding universe. As a bonus of the tunneling method, we gain the insight that the surface gravity still defines a temperature parameter as long as the evolution is sufficiently slow that the black-hole pass through a sequence of quasi-equilibrium states, and that black holes should be semi-classically unstable even in a hypothetical world without bosonic fields.

  5. [New horizons in pediatrics].

    PubMed

    Grossman, Zachi

    2012-06-01

    The profession of pediatrics is constantLy changing. New morbidities are replacing old ones, as a reflection of the changes in society. Even today, old and rare morbidities, like scurvy or acute urinary retention, can be encountered in special settings and populations such as handicapped and developmentally delayed children. The availability of ever newer genetic tests highlights the duty of pediatricians to constantly update families for carrier detection, but also raises questions on the cLinical significance of asymptomatic mutations. Vaccination is one of the most effective pubLic health measures, but failure of medical staff to follow self vaccination recommendations might jeopardize protecting the children. Anti vaccination movement is rapidly growing due to the Internet. However, we must acknowledge the benefits inherent in Internet forums, for example, adolescents consulting anonymously regarding pubertal issues. A new and most needed aspect of care is treatment of pain in children. Increased staff awareness concerning anaLgesia is needed as well as promoting the use of medical clowns for anxiety and pain provoking procedures. Delivering appropriate healthcare to different societal demographic sectors is a challenge for pediatricians. The approach to fever phobia among ultra orthodox parents and advocacy for safety recommendations in the Arab population are two such exampLes. Finally, we shouLd always strive for innovative approaches in pediatric diseases affecting quality of life, and celiac disease is certainly promising in this direction. PMID:22991856

  6. Penrose inequality and apparent horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Ben-Dov, Ishai

    2004-12-15

    A spherically symmetric spacetime is presented with an initial data set that is asymptotically flat, satisfies the dominant energy condition, and such that on this initial data M<{radical}(A/16{pi}), where M is the total mass and A is the area of the apparent horizon. This provides a counterexample to a commonly stated version of the Penrose inequality, though it does not contradict the true Penrose inequality.

  7. New Horizons Tracks an Asteroid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    The two 'spots' in this image are a composite of two images of asteroid 2002 JF56 taken on June 11 and June 12, 2006, with the Multispectral Visible Imaging Camera (MVIC) component of the New Horizons Ralph imager. In the bottom image, taken when the asteroid was about 3.36 million kilometers (2.1 million miles) away from the spacecraft, 2002 JF56 appears like a dim star. At top, taken at a distance of about 1.34 million kilometers (833,000 miles), the object is more than a factor of six brighter. The best current, estimated diameter of the asteroid is approximately 2.5 kilometers.

    The asteroid observation was a chance for the New Horizons team to test the spacecraft's ability to track a rapidly moving object. On June 13 New Horizons came to within about 102,000 kilometers of the small asteroid, when the spacecraft was nearly 368 million kilometers (228 million miles) from the Sun and about 273 million kilometers (170 million miles) from Earth.

  8. Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

    2016-01-01

    Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important. PMID:27376005

  9. Landsat-4 horizon scanner flight performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanow, S.; Chen, L. C.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the flight data from a new design of horizon scanner flown on Landsat-4. The salient features in the data are described and demonstrated by data plots. High frequency noise must be filtered out to achieve good accuracy, but this is effectively done by 128-point averaging. Sun and moon interference effects are identified. The effects of earth oblateness and spacecraft altitude variations are modeled, and the residual systematic errors are analyzed. Most of the residual errors are apparently explained by the effects of earth radiance variation, with the winter polar regions showing the highest variability in the attitude measurements due to winter stratosphere temperature variations. In general, this sensor provides improved accuracy over those flown on previous missions.

  10. Beyond the veil: Inner horizon instability and holography

    SciTech Connect

    Balasubramanian, Vijay; Levi, Thomas S.

    2004-11-15

    We show that scalar perturbations of the eternal, rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole should lead to an instability of the inner (Cauchy) horizon, preserving strong cosmic censorship. Because of backscattering from the geometry, plane-wave modes have a divergent stress tensor at the event horizon, but suitable wave packets avoid this difficulty, and are dominated at late times by quasinormal behavior. The wave packets have cuts in the complexified coordinate plane that are controlled by requirements of continuity, single-valuedness, and positive energy. Due to a focusing effect, regular wave packets nevertheless have a divergent stress energy at the inner horizon, signaling an instability. We propose that this instability, which is localized behind the event horizon, is detected holographically as a breakdown in the semiclassical computation of dual conformal field theory (CFT) expectation values in which the analytic behavior of wave packets in the complexified coordinate plane plays an integral role. In the dual field theory, this is interpreted as an encoding of physics behind the horizon in the entanglement between otherwise independent CFTs.

  11. Energy and information near black hole horizons

    SciTech Connect

    Freivogel, Ben

    2014-07-01

    The central challenge in trying to resolve the firewall paradox is to identify excitations in the near-horizon zone of a black hole that can carry information without injuring a freely falling observer. By analyzing the problem from the point of view of a freely falling observer, I arrive at a simple proposal for the degrees of freedom that carry information out of the black hole. An infalling observer experiences the information-carrying modes as ingoing, negative energy excitations of the quantum fields. In these states, freely falling observers who fall in from infinity do not encounter a firewall, but freely falling observers who begin their free fall from a location close to the horizon are ''frozen'' by a flux of negative energy. When the black hole is ''mined,'' the number of information-carrying modes increases, increasing the negative energy flux in the infalling frame without violating the equivalence principle. Finally, I point out a loophole in recent arguments that an infalling observer must detect a violation of unitarity, effective field theory, or free infall.

  12. Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1994-01-01

    In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

  13. A receding horizon approach for dynamic UAV mission management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassandras, Christos G.; Li, Wei

    2003-09-01

    We consider a setting where multiple UAVs form a team cooperating to visit multiple targets to collect rewards associated with them. The team objective is to maximize the total reward accumulated over a given time interval. Complicating factors include uncertainties regarding the locations of targets and the effectiveness of collecting rewards, differences among vehicle capabilities, and the fact that rewards are time-varying. We describe a Receding Horizon (RH) control scheme which dynamically assigns vehicles to targets and simultaneously determines associated trajectories. This scheme is based on solving a sequence of optimization problems over a planning horizon and executing them over a shorter action horizon. We also describe a simulated battlespace environment designed to test UAV team missions and to illustrate how the RH scheme can achieve optimal performance with high probability.

  14. Deepwater Horizon oil spill monitoring using airborne multispectral infrared imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Sylvia S.; Lewis, Paul E.

    2011-06-01

    On April 28, 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Airborne Spectral Photometric Environmental Collection Technology (ASPECT) aircraft was deployed to Gulfport, Mississippi to provide airborne remotely sensed air monitoring and situational awareness data and products in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. The ASPECT aircraft was released from service on August 9, 2010 after having flown over 85 missions that included over 325 hours of flight operation. This paper describes several advanced analysis capabilities specifically developed for the Deepwater Horizon mission to correctly locate, identify, characterize, and quantify surface oil using ASPECT's multispectral infrared data. The data products produced using these advanced analysis capabilities provided the Deepwater Horizon Incident Command with a capability that significantly increased the effectiveness of skimmer vessel oil recovery efforts directed by the U.S. Coast Guard, and were considered by the Incident Command as key situational awareness information.

  15. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium

    SciTech Connect

    Silling, Stewart A.; Littlewood, David J.; Seleson, Pablo

    2015-12-10

    Here, a notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with variable horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties unchanged. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under a homogeneous deformation. These artifacts depend on the second derivative of the horizon and can be reduced by employing a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress. Bodies with piecewise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forces by using a simpler technique called a splice. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both the partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.

  16. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium.

    SciTech Connect

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Littlewood, David John; Seleson, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    A notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with vari- able horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties un- changed. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under homogeneous deformation. These artifacts de- pend on the second derivative of horizon and can be reduced by use of a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress . Bodies with piece- wise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forces by using a technique called a splice between the regions. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.

  17. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Silling, Stewart A.; Littlewood, David J.; Seleson, Pablo

    2015-12-10

    Here, a notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with variable horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties unchanged. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under a homogeneous deformation. These artifacts depend on the second derivative of the horizon and can be reduced by employing a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress. Bodies with piecewise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forcesmore » by using a simpler technique called a splice. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both the partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.« less

  18. A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D; Tonneijck, Femke H; Wintle, Bonnie C; Wright, Katherine E

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China. PMID:26688445

  19. Near-horizon solution for Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati perturbations

    SciTech Connect

    Sawicki, Ignacy; Song, Yong-Seon; Hu, Wayne

    2007-03-15

    We develop a scaling ansatz for the master equation in Dvali, Gabadadze, Porrati cosmologies, which allows us to solve the equations of motion for perturbations off the brane during periods when the on-brane evolution is scale free. This allows us to understand the behavior of the gravitational potentials outside the horizon at high redshifts and close to the horizon today. We confirm that the results of Koyama and Maartens are valid at scales relevant for observations such as galaxy-ISW correlations. At larger scales, there is an additional suppression of the potential which reduces the growth rate even further and would strengthen the integrated Sachs-Wolf effect.

  20. Black Hole Physics with the Event Horizon Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozel, Feryal

    2016-01-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope is an experiment that is being performed on a large and ever-increasing array of radio telescopes that span the Earth from Hawaii to Chile and from the South Pole to Arizona. When data will be taken with the full array, it will image the event horizons of the supermassive black hole at the center of our Galaxy, Sagittarius A*, and the black hole at the center of M87, with an unprecedented 10 microarcssecond resolution. This will allow us to take the first ever pictures of black holes at 1.3 and 0.85 mm wavelengths and look for the shadow that is a direct evidence for a black hole predicted by the theory of General Relativity. In addition, the Event Horizon Telescope will also enable us to study the process by which black holes accrete matter and grow in mass. I will discuss the theoretical developments in simulating the properties of the black hole accretion flows and their expected images using state-of-the-art algorithms and high performance computing. Interpreting the upcoming observations within this theoretical framework will open new horizons in black hole astrophysics.

  1. Theory underlying the peripheral vision horizon device

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Money, K. E.

    1984-01-01

    Peripheral Vision Horizon Device (PVHD) theory states that the likelihood of pilot disorientation in flight is reduced by providing an artificial horizon that provides orientation information to peripheral vision. In considering the validity of the theory, three areas are explored: the use of an artificial horizon device over some other flight instrument; the use of peripheral vision over foveal vision; and the evidence that peripheral vision is well suited to the processing of orientation information.

  2. Imaging an Event Horizon: Mitigation of Source Variability of Sagittarius A*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Ru-Sen; Roelofs, Freek; Fish, Vincent L.; Shiokawa, Hotaka; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Gammie, Charles F.; Falcke, Heino; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Zensus, J. Anton

    2016-02-01

    The black hole in the center of the Galaxy, associated with the compact source Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), is predicted to cast a shadow upon the emission of the surrounding plasma flow, which encodes the influence of general relativity (GR) in the strong-field regime. The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network with a goal of imaging nearby supermassive black holes (in particular Sgr A* and M87) with angular resolution sufficient to observe strong gravity effects near the event horizon. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations show that radio emission from Sgr A* exhibits variability on timescales of minutes, much shorter than the duration of a typical VLBI imaging experiment, which usually takes several hours. A changing source structure during the observations, however, violates one of the basic assumptions needed for aperture synthesis in radio interferometry imaging to work. By simulating realistic EHT observations of a model movie of Sgr A*, we demonstrate that an image of the average quiescent emission, featuring the characteristic black hole shadow and photon ring predicted by GR, can nonetheless be obtained by observing over multiple days and subsequent processing of the visibilities (scaling, averaging, and smoothing) before imaging. Moreover, it is shown that this procedure can be combined with an existing method to mitigate the effects of interstellar scattering. Taken together, these techniques allow the black hole shadow in the Galactic center to be recovered on the reconstructed image.

  3. Predictive modeling of nanomaterial exposure effects in biological systems

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiong; Tang, Kaizhi; Harper, Stacey; Harper, Bryan; Steevens, Jeffery A; Xu, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Background Predictive modeling of the biological effects of nanomaterials is critical for industry and policymakers to assess the potential hazards resulting from the application of engineered nanomaterials. Methods We generated an experimental dataset on the toxic effects experienced by embryonic zebrafish due to exposure to nanomaterials. Several nanomaterials were studied, such as metal nanoparticles, dendrimer, metal oxide, and polymeric materials. The embryonic zebrafish metric (EZ Metric) was used as a screening-level measurement representative of adverse effects. Using the dataset, we developed a data mining approach to model the toxic endpoints and the overall biological impact of nanomaterials. Data mining techniques, such as numerical prediction, can assist analysts in developing risk assessment models for nanomaterials. Results We found several important attributes that contribute to the 24 hours post-fertilization (hpf) mortality, such as dosage concentration, shell composition, and surface charge. These findings concur with previous studies on nanomaterial toxicity using embryonic zebrafish. We conducted case studies on modeling the overall effect/impact of nanomaterials and the specific toxic endpoints such as mortality, delayed development, and morphological malformations. The results show that we can achieve high prediction accuracy for certain biological effects, such as 24 hpf mortality, 120 hpf mortality, and 120 hpf heart malformation. The results also show that the weighting scheme for individual biological effects has a significant influence on modeling the overall impact of nanomaterials. Sample prediction models can be found at http://neiminer.i-a-i.com/nei_models. Conclusion The EZ Metric-based data mining approach has been shown to have predictive power. The results provide valuable insights into the modeling and understanding of nanomaterial exposure effects. PMID:24098077

  4. Spectroscopy of a weakly isolated horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ge-Rui; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2016-06-01

    The spectroscopy of a weakly isolated horizon has been investigated. We obtain an equally spaced entropy spectrum with its quantum equal to the one given by Bekenstein (Phys Rev D 7:2333, 1973). We demonstrate that the quantization of entropy and area is a generic property of horizons which exists in a wide class of spacetimes admitting weakly isolated horizons. Our method based on the tunneling method also indicates that the entropy quantum of black hole horizons is closely related to Hawking temperature.

  5. The Influence of Viscous Effects on Ice Accretion Prediction and Airfoil Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Wright, William B.

    2005-01-01

    A computational study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of using a viscous flow solution in an ice accretion code and the resulting accuracy of aerodynamic performance prediction. Ice shapes were obtained for one single-element and one multi-element airfoil using both potential flow and Navier-Stokes flowfields in the LEWICE ice accretion code. Aerodynamics were then calculated using a Navier-Stokes flow solver.

  6. Effective protein conformational sampling based on predicted torsion angles.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yuedong; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2016-04-30

    Protein structure prediction is a long-standing problem in molecular biology. Due to lack of an accurate energy function, it is often difficult to know whether the sampling algorithm or the energy function is the most important factor for failure of locating near-native conformations of proteins. This article examines the size dependence of sampling effectiveness by using a perfect "energy function": the root-mean-squared distance from the target native structure. Using protein targets up to 460 residues from critical assessment of structure prediction techniques (CASP11, 2014), we show that the accuracy of near native structures sampled is relatively independent of protein sizes but strongly depends on the errors of predicted torsion angles. Even with 40% out-of-range angle prediction, 2 Å or less near-native conformation can be sampled. The result supports that the poor energy function is one of the bottlenecks of structure prediction and predicted torsion angles are useful for overcoming the bottleneck by restricting the sampling space in the absence of a perfect energy function. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26696379

  7. GESSE: Predicting Drug Side Effects from Drug-Target Relationships.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Nueno, Violeta I; Souchet, Michel; Karaboga, Arnaud S; Ritchie, David W

    2015-09-28

    The in silico prediction of unwanted side effects (SEs) caused by the promiscuous behavior of drugs and their targets is highly relevant to the pharmaceutical industry. Considerable effort is now being put into computational and experimental screening of several suspected off-target proteins in the hope that SEs might be identified early, before the cost associated with developing a drug candidate rises steeply. Following this need, we present a new method called GESSE to predict potential SEs of drugs from their physicochemical properties (three-dimensional shape plus chemistry) and to target protein data extracted from predicted drug-target relationships. The GESSE approach uses a canonical correlation analysis of the full drug-target and drug-SE matrices, and it then calculates a probability that each drug in the resulting drug-target matrix will have a given SE using a Bayesian discriminant analysis (DA) technique. The performance of GESSE is quantified using retrospective (external database) analysis and literature examples by means of area under the ROC curve analysis, "top hit rates", misclassification rates, and a χ(2) independence test. Overall, the robust and very promising retrospective statistics obtained and the many SE predictions that have experimental corroboration demonstrate that GESSE can successfully predict potential drug-SE profiles of candidate drug compounds from their predicted drug-target relationships. PMID:26251970

  8. Initial Integration of Noise Prediction Tools for Acoustic Scattering Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nark, Douglas M.; Burley, Casey L.; Tinetti, Ana; Rawls, John W.

    2008-01-01

    This effort provides an initial glimpse at NASA capabilities available in predicting the scattering of fan noise from a non-conventional aircraft configuration. The Aircraft NOise Prediction Program, Fast Scattering Code, and the Rotorcraft Noise Model were coupled to provide increased fidelity models of scattering effects on engine fan noise sources. The integration of these codes led to the identification of several keys issues entailed in applying such multi-fidelity approaches. In particular, for prediction at noise certification points, the inclusion of distributed sources leads to complications with the source semi-sphere approach. Computational resource requirements limit the use of the higher fidelity scattering code to predict radiated sound pressure levels for full scale configurations at relevant frequencies. And, the ability to more accurately represent complex shielding surfaces in current lower fidelity models is necessary for general application to scattering predictions. This initial step in determining the potential benefits/costs of these new methods over the existing capabilities illustrates a number of the issues that must be addressed in the development of next generation aircraft system noise prediction tools.

  9. Joint Effect of Multiple Common SNPs Predicts Melanoma Susceptibility

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Shenying; Han, Jiali; Zhang, Mingfeng; Wang, Li-e; Wei, Qingyi; Amos, Christopher I.; Lee, Jeffrey E.

    2013-01-01

    Single genetic variants discovered so far have been only weakly associated with melanoma. This study aims to use multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) jointly to obtain a larger genetic effect and to improve the predictive value of a conventional phenotypic model. We analyzed 11 SNPs that were associated with melanoma risk in previous studies and were genotyped in MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) and Harvard Medical School investigations. Participants with ≥15 risk alleles were 5-fold more likely to have melanoma compared to those carrying ≤6. Compared to a model using the most significant single variant rs12913832, the increase in predictive value for the model using a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 11 SNPs was 0.07(95% CI, 0.05-0.07). The overall predictive value of the PRS together with conventional phenotypic factors in the MDACC population was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.69). PRS significantly improved the risk prediction and reclassification in melanoma as compared with the conventional model. Our study suggests that a polygenic profile can improve the predictive value of an individual gene polymorphism and may be able to significantly improve the predictive value beyond conventional phenotypic melanoma risk factors. PMID:24392023

  10. Higher Horizons: An Evaluation of an Expanded Team Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartford Public Schools, CT.

    The original Higher Horizons Program or HH 100, was established in 1965 as a ninth grade compensatory model which could be used to demonstrate that some of the more salient ravages of educational deprivation could be corrected effectively, and at the high school level. So as to demonstrate that secondary school compensatory education could…

  11. New Horizons for Learning: An Interview with Dee Dickinson

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Windham, Scott; Dickinson, Dee

    2005-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Dee Dickinson, founder and chief learning officer of New Horizons for Learning, a nonprofit international education network whose mission is to identify, communicate, and help implement effective teaching and learning strategies. Founded in 1980 and now operating largely through its Web site, New Horizons…

  12. Prediction of Harmful Human Health Effects of Chemicals from Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, Mark T. D.

    There is a great need to assess the harmful effects of chemicals to which man is exposed. Various in silico techniques including chemical grouping and category formation, as well as the use of (Q)SARs can be applied to predict the toxicity of chemicals for a number of toxicological effects. This chapter provides an overview of the state of the art of the prediction of the harmful effects of chemicals to human health. A variety of existing data can be used to obtain information; many such data are formalized into freely available and commercial databases. (Q)SARs can be developed (as illustrated with reference to skin sensitization) for local and global data sets. In addition, chemical grouping techniques can be applied on "similar" chemicals to allow for read-across predictions. Many "expert systems" are now available that incorporate these approaches. With these in silico approaches available, the techniques to apply them successfully have become essential. Integration of different in silico approaches with each other, as well as with other alternative approaches, e.g., in vitro and -omics through the development of integrated testing strategies, will assist in the more efficient prediction of the harmful health effects of chemicals

  13. Predictive Effects of Online Peer Feedback Types on Performance Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Fu-Yun; Wu, Chun-Ping

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the individual and combined predictive effects of two types of feedback (i.e., quantitative ratings and descriptive comments) in online peer-assessment learning systems on the quality of produced work. A total of 233 students participated in the study for six weeks. An online learning system that allows students to contribute…

  14. Motion Prediction and the Velocity Effect in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benguigui, Nicolas; Broderick, Michael P.; Baures, Robin; Amorim, Michel-Ange

    2008-01-01

    In coincidence-timing studies, children have been shown to respond too early to slower stimuli and too late to faster stimuli. To examine this velocity effect, children aged 6, 7.5, 9, 10.5, and adults were tested with two different velocities in a prediction-motion task which consisted of judging, after the occlusion of the final part of its…

  15. EFFECTS OF PHOTOCHEMICAL KINETIC MECHANISMS ON OXIDANT MODEL PREDICTIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The comparative effects of kinetic mechanisms on oxidant model predictions have been tested using two different mechanisms (the Carbon-Bond Mechanism II (CBM-II) and the Demerjian Photochemical Box Model (DPBM) mechanism) in three air quality models (the OZIPM/EKMA, the Urban Air...

  16. Prediction of incidence and surface roughness effects on turbine performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.

    1993-01-01

    The results of a Navier-Stokes analysis for predicting the change in turbine efficiency due to a change in either incidence or surface roughness is discussed. It was experimentally determined by Boynton, Tabibzadeh, and Hudson that polishing the SSME high pressure fuel turbine blades improved turbine efficiency by about 2 points over a wide range of operating conditions. These conditions encompassed the range of incidence seen by the turbine blading during flight. It is also necessary to be able to predict turbine performance at various operating points for future rocket turbopump applications. The code RVCQ3D, developed by Rod Chima, was used to determine the effects of changes in incidence angle on turbine blade row efficiency. The midspan Navier-Stokes results were used in conjunction with an inviscid flow analysis code to predict the efficiency of the two stage SSME over a wide range of operating conditions for smooth and rough turbine blades. The use of the Navier-Stokes analysis to predict changes in turbine efficiency due to variation in incidence angles was found to be superior to other incidence loss correlations available in the literature. The sensitivity of the Navier-Stokes results to grid parameters is discussed. The effects of the surface roughness were accounted for using the Cebeci-Chang rough wall turbulence model. This model was implemented in the code RVCQ3D. The implementation of this model for predicting the change in efficiency is also discussed.

  17. Output-feedback control of combined sewer networks through receding horizon control with moving horizon estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph-Duran, Bernat; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Cembrano, Gabriela

    2015-10-01

    An output-feedback control strategy for pollution mitigation in combined sewer networks is presented. The proposed strategy provides means to apply model-based predictive control to large-scale sewer networks, in-spite of the lack of measurements at most of the network sewers. In previous works, the authors presented a hybrid linear control-oriented model for sewer networks together with the formulation of Optimal Control Problems (OCP) and State Estimation Problems (SEP). By iteratively solving these problems, preliminary Receding Horizon Control with Moving Horizon Estimation (RHC/MHE) results, based on flow measurements, were also obtained. In this work, the RHC/MHE algorithm has been extended to take into account both flow and water level measurements and the resulting control loop has been extensively simulated to assess the system performance according different measurement availability scenarios and rain events. All simulations have been carried out using a detailed physically based model of a real case-study network as virtual reality.

  18. The effect of 6 versus 9 years of zoledronic acid treatment in osteoporosis: a randomized second extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT).

    PubMed

    Black, Dennis M; Reid, Ian R; Cauley, Jane A; Cosman, Felicia; Leung, Ping Chung; Lakatos, Peter; Lippuner, Kurt; Cummings, Steven R; Hue, Trisha F; Mukhopadhyay, Amitava; Tan, Monique; Aftring, R Paul; Eastell, Richard

    2015-05-01

    While bisphosphonates reduce fracture risk over 3 to 5 years, the optimal duration of treatment is uncertain. In a randomized extension study (E1) of the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly-Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg annually for 6 years showed maintenance of bone mineral density (BMD), decrease in morphometric vertebral fractures, and a modest reduction in bone turnover markers (BTMs) compared with discontinuation after 3 years. To investigate the longer-term efficacy and safety of ZOL, a second extension (E2) was conducted to 9 years in which women on ZOL for 6 years in E1 were randomized to either ZOL (Z9) or placebo (Z6P3) for 3 additional years. In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind study, 190 women were randomized to Z9 (n = 95) and Z6P3 (n = 95). The primary endpoint was change in total hip BMD at year 9 vs. year 6 in Z9 compared with Z6P3. Other secondary endpoints included fractures, BTMs, and safety. From year 6 to 9, the mean change in total hip BMD was -0.54% in Z9 vs. -1.31% in Z6P3 (difference 0.78%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.37%, 1.93%; p = 0.183). BTMs showed small, non-significant increases in those who discontinued after 6 years compared with those who continued for 9 years. The number of fractures was low and did not significantly differ by treatment. While generally safe, there was a small increase in cardiac arrhythmias (combined serious and non-serious) in the Z9 group but no significant imbalance in other safety parameters. The results suggest almost all patients who have received six annual ZOL infusions can stop medication for up to 3 years with apparent maintenance of benefits. PMID:25545380

  19. Investigating physiological, cellular and molecular effects in juvenile blue crab, Callinectus sapidus, exposed to field-collected sediments contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon Incident.

    PubMed

    Pie, Hannah V; Schott, Eric J; Mitchelmore, Carys L

    2015-11-01

    Juvenile blue crabs, Callinectus sapidus, were exposed for 31 days to six different sediments collected within the Pass a Loutre State Wildlife Management Area approximately 6 months or 1.5 years post-capping of the Macondo-252 well-head following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Incident. Based on forensic analysis to fingerprint for DWH oil, these sediments differed in their levels of DWH oil contamination, and included one reference sediment collected from a location with no detectable DWH oil present. The concentration of 50 individual parent and alkylation group polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), saturated hydrocarbons (37 total), and total extractable hydrocarbons were determined in each sediment, as were biologically relevant metals, grain size distribution, percent total organic carbon, and percent total solids. Total concentrations of 50 PAHs (TPAH50) of initial treatment sediments ranged from 187 μg kg(-1) (reference site) to 2,086,458 μg kg(-1) (the highest DWH oil contaminated site). Multiple biological endpoints were measured including mortality, growth, and ecdysis. Additionally, early biomarkers of biological stress were examined in the hemolymph and hepatopancreas of crabs, including DNA damage (Comet assay) and expression of genes encoding Cu-metallothionein (CuMT), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD). Over the 31 day exposure, there were no treatment related mortalities in juvenile blue crabs. The overall growth and molting of the crabs were not substantially different between the various sediment exposures over the exposure period. Additionally, none of the early biomarkers of biological stress were correlated with PAH concentrations. Overall, juvenile blue crabs did not appear to be negatively impacted during the 31 day exposure by DWH oil contaminated sediments collected at least 6 months post-capping of the Macondo-252 well-head. PMID:26100732

  20. The effect of word predictability on reading time is logarithmic.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nathaniel J; Levy, Roger

    2013-09-01

    It is well known that real-time human language processing is highly incremental and context-driven, and that the strength of a comprehender's expectation for each word encountered is a key determinant of the difficulty of integrating that word into the preceding context. In reading, this differential difficulty is largely manifested in the amount of time taken to read each word. While numerous studies over the past thirty years have shown expectation-based effects on reading times driven by lexical, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic, and other information sources, there has been little progress in establishing the quantitative relationship between expectation (or prediction) and reading times. Here, by combining a state-of-the-art computational language model, two large behavioral data-sets, and non-parametric statistical techniques, we establish for the first time the quantitative form of this relationship, finding that it is logarithmic over six orders of magnitude in estimated predictability. This result is problematic for a number of established models of eye movement control in reading, but lends partial support to an optimal perceptual discrimination account of word recognition. We also present a novel model in which language processing is highly incremental well below the level of the individual word, and show that it predicts both the shape and time-course of this effect. At a more general level, this result provides challenges for both anticipatory processing and semantic integration accounts of lexical predictability effects. And finally, this result provides evidence that comprehenders are highly sensitive to relative differences in predictability - even for differences between highly unpredictable words - and thus helps bring theoretical unity to our understanding of the role of prediction at multiple levels of linguistic structure in real-time language comprehension. PMID:23747651

  1. Duct propagation modelling for the integrated-refractive-effects prediction system (IREPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgartner, G. B., Jr.; Hitney, H. V.; Pappert, R. A.

    1983-12-01

    IREPS and its products and models are reviewed and a recent propagation modelling effort to improve IREPS signal-prediction capabilities in tropospheric ducting environments is described. The feasibility of using asymptotic forms of plane wave reflection coefficients for waveguide calculations in order to expedite beyond-the-horizon field calculations is examined. Asymptotic formulas are given and compared with exact evaluations, and mode-search methods and field-strength formulas are summarized. Waveguide field calculations obtained using a 'mixed asymptotic' method are compared with the complete full-wave calculations.

  2. Mach Number Effects on Turbine Blade Transition Length Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Simon, F. F.

    1998-01-01

    The effect of a Mach number correction on a model for predicting the length of transition was investigated. The transition length decreases as the turbulent spot production rate increases. Much of the data for predicting the spot production rate comes from low speed flow experiments. Recent data and analysis showed that the spot production rate is affected by Mach number. The degree of agreement between analysis and data for turbine blade heat transfer without film cooling is strongly dependent of accurately predicting the length of transition. Consequently, turbine blade heat transfer data sets were used to validate a transition length turbulence model. A method for modifying models for the length of transition to account for Mach number effects is presented. The modification was made to two transition length models. The modified models were incorporated into the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes code, RVCQ3D. Comparisons were made between predicted and measured midspan surface heat transfer for stator and rotor turbine blades. The results showed that accounting for Mach number effects significantly improved the agreement with the experimental data.

  3. Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, L.; Besser, R.; Hejduk, M.

    The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for screening against the high accuracy catalog, then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is a primary source of state estimate uncertainty, and drag is directly governed by space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times, and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag), giving rise to several questions. Does a change in space weather make a close approach safer or riskier? Might performing a maneuver make the approach worse due to uncertainty in predicted location at a given time? What if there are errors in the predicted timing or magnitude of the space weather event? Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of drag perturbations on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction can become riskier or less risky. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag coefficient of the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the effect is likely to have on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, all of the observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

  4. Predictive Models for Fast and Effective Profiling of Kinase Inhibitors.

    PubMed

    Bora, Alina; Avram, Sorin; Ciucanu, Ionel; Raica, Marius; Avram, Stefana

    2016-05-23

    In this study we developed two-dimensional pharmacophore-based random forest models for the effective profiling of kinase inhibitors. One hundred seven prediction models were developed to address distinct kinases spanning over all kinase groups. Rigorous external validation demonstrates excellent virtual screening and classification potential of the predictors and, more importantly, the capacity to prioritize novel chemical scaffolds in large chemical libraries. The models built upon more diverse and more potent compounds tend to exert the highest predictive power. The analysis of ColBioS-FlavRC (Collection of Bioselective Flavonoids and Related Compounds) highlighted several potentially promiscuous derivatives with undesirable selectivity against kinases. The prediction models can be downloaded from www.chembioinf.ro . PMID:27064988

  5. Over-the-horizon propagation measurements at six radar-frequency bands at the Atlantic Ocean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boekema, R. B.

    1993-07-01

    In the autumn of 1989, the propagation subgroup of NATO AC/243 has conducted a propagation experiment near Lorient France, at the Atlantic Ocean. The purpose of this experiment was to gain an insight into the influence of the evaporation duct above the sea on the propagation of radar signals of different frequencies in an over-the-horizon situation and into the applicability of model predictions. The geometry of the experiment has been chosen to represent a typical ship defence situation. The measurements have shown that for the present case the nearly always present evaporation duct results in a signal enhancement with the strongest effects at the 10.5 and 16 GHz frequencies. An extended study of the quality of the model predictions, possible by the unique set of measurement results, shows some interesting matters. If the process of prediction is divided into two parts, the calculation of the duct height from the meteorological data and the path loss calculation from this duct height, the conclusion is made that the first part is responsible for the largest inaccuracies. The used duct height calculation method showed systematic deviations for different meteorological conditions. The inaccuracy of the duct height calculation makes useful path loss predictions at the millimeter-wave frequencies (35 and 94 GHz) impossible for this over-the-horizon situation. The predictions at the lower frequencies are much better, but not always satisfactory. The deviation analyses in this report can be useful to improve propagation models.

  6. The NMC Horizon Report: 2014 Library Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2014-01-01

    The internationally recognized "NMC Horizon Report" series and regional "NMC Technology Outlooks" are part of the NMC Horizon Project, a 12-year effort established in 2002 that annually identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years in every sector of education around the…

  7. Reconceptualizing Knowledge at the Mathematical Horizon

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zazkis, Rina; Mamolo, Ami

    2011-01-01

    This article extends the notion of "knowledge at the mathematical horizon" or "horizon knowledge" introduced by Ball and colleagues as a part of teachers' subject matter knowledge. Our focus is on teachers' mathematical knowledge beyond the school curriculum, that is, on mathematics learnt during undergraduate college or university studies. We…

  8. The Horizon Report: 2010 Museum Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Witchey, H.; Smith, R.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2010-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This volume, the "2010 Horizon…

  9. Expanding your horizons in science and mathematics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palmer, Cynthia E. A.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the 'Expanding Your Horizons in Science and Mathematics' program is to interest young women in grades six through twelve in a variety of careers where mathematics and science are important. Progress in encouraging young women to take courses in mathematics, science, and technological subjects is discussed. Also included are adult, student, and organizational information packets used for 'Expanding Your Horizons' conferences.

  10. Horizon Report: 2009 Economic Development Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Levine, A.; Scott, C.; Smith, R.; Stone, S.

    2009-01-01

    The New Media Consortium's Horizon Project is an ongoing research project that seeks to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact in education and other industries around the world over a five-year time period. The chief products of the project are the "Horizon Reports", an annual series of publications that…

  11. Horizon Report: 2010 K-12 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Smith, R.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2010-01-01

    The "Horizon Report" series is the most visible outcome of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, an ongoing research effort established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, research, or creative expression within education around the globe. This volume, the "2010…

  12. The NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Museum Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This "2015 Horizon…

  13. Testing General Relativity with the Event Horizon Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benkevitch, Leonid; Fish, V. L.; Johannsen, T.; Akiyama, K.; Broderick, A. E.; Psaltis, D.; Doeleman, S.; Monnier, J. D.; Baron, F.

    2013-01-01

    Strong gravitational lensing of light near black holes is one of the effects predicted by general relativity (GR). Emission close to a black hole will typically be lensed to illuminate the last photon orbit, creating a feature known as the black hole 'shadow' or 'silhouette'. The precise size and shape of the shadow is dependent on black hole mass, spin, and the space-time metric. The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a (sub)mm VLBI network that can achieve Schwarzschild Radius scale resolution on SgrA*, the 4 million solar mass black hole at the Galactic Center. Here we present initial studies of how recent and future EHT observations of SgrA* can be used to test the No-Hair theorem by searching for deviations from the expected shadow morphology. We have developed a pipeline for producing synthetic EHT data sets from black hole emission models using perturbed space-time metrics that violate the No-Hair theorem. Employing imaging and modelfitting algorithms tailored for EHT data, we extract parameters of the black hole shadow. Preliminary results indicate that the EHT can provide a new way to test GR in the strong gravity regime that is complementary to techniques in other fields.

  14. Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tiedeman, Claire R.; Green, Christopher T.

    2013-01-01

    Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (rdss). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of rdss. Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

  15. Quantum Phase Transitions and Event Horizons:. Condensed Matter Analogies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapline, George

    2006-07-01

    Although it has been generally believed that classical general relativity is always correct for macroscopic length scales, certain predictions such as event horizons and closed time-like curves are inconsistent with ordinary quantum mechanics. It has recently been pointed out that the event horizon problem can be resolved if space-time undergoes a quantum phase transition as one approaches the surface where general relativity predicts that the redshift becomes infinite. Indeed a thought experiment involving a superfluid with a critical point makes such a suggestion appear plausible. Furthermore the behavior of space-time near an event horizon may resemble quantum phase transitions that have been observed in the laboratory. For example, the phenomenology of meta-magnetic quantum critical points in heavy fermion materials resembles the behavior expected, both in terms of time standing still and the behavior of quantum correlation functions. Martensitic transformations accompanied by non-adiabatic changes in the electronic wave function are also interesting in this connection.

  16. Predicting ecological effects of pollutants: A role for marine mesocosms

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, T.J.

    1994-12-31

    The major uncertainty in predicting the ecological effects of a pollutant is the relationship between dose and the ecological response. Mesocosms may be used to simulate population-level biological processes and to estimate the nature and shape of dose-related responses to pollutants, for use in predictive evaluations of pollutant impacts. To ensure that responses observed in mesocosm tests are representative it is necessary to confirm that the simulated processes operate at rates similar to those found in the field. Pilot experiments were conducted in small marine mesocosms simulating major processes in two local habitat types: unvegetated sand and sand colonized by the brown macroalga Sargassum. The results showed that for a range of variates (such as the % of egg-bearing harpacticoid copepods, or the chlorophyll a concentration in surface sediments) the mean values for measurements in the tanks over a 9 week period did not consistently converge or diverge from those in the field. Also, for a number of the variates, a modelled decrease of more than about 60% in the mean could be detected with greater than 80% statistical power. This indicates that the effects of a pollutant could be detected with acceptable power. Use of a combination of such variates based on different functional or taxonomic groups for pollutant effects testing could greatly decrease uncertainty about the predicted effects of pollutants discharged to these habitats.

  17. Improved Prediction of the Doppler Effect in TRISO Fuel

    SciTech Connect

    J. Ortensi; A.M. Ougouag

    2009-05-01

    The Doppler feedback mechanism is a major contributor to the passive safety of gas-cooled, graphite-moderated High Temperature Reactors that use fuel based on TRISO particles. It follows that the correct prediction of the magnitude and time-dependence of this feedback effect is essential to the conduct of safety analyses for these reactors. Since the effect is directly dependent on the actual temperature reached by the fuel during transients, the underlying phenomena of heat transfer and temperature rise must be correctly predicted. This paper presents an improved model for the TRISO particle and its thermal behavior during transients. The improved approach incorporates an explicit TRISO heat conduction model to better quantify the time dependence of the temperature in the various layers of the TRISO particle, including its fuel central zone. There follows a better treatment of the Doppler Effect within said fuel zone. The new model is based on a 1-D analytic solution for composite media using the Green’s function technique. The modeling improvement takes advantage of some of the physical behavior of TRISO fuel under irradiation and includes a distinctive look at the physics of the neutronic Doppler Effect. The new methodology has been implemented within the coupled R-Z nodal diffusion code CYNOD-THERMIX. The new model has been applied to the analysis of earthquakes (presented in a companion paper). In this paper, the model is applied to the control rod ejection event, as specified in the OECD PBMR-400 benchmark, but with temperature dependent thermal properties. The results obtained for this transient using the enhanced code are a considerable improvement over the predictions of the original code. The incorporation of the enhanced model shows that the Doppler Effect plays a more significant role than predicted by the original unenhanced model based on the THERMIX homogenized fuel region model. The new model shows that the overall energy generation during the rod

  18. Does prior knowledge of safety effect help to predict how effective a measure will be?

    PubMed

    Elvik, R

    1996-05-01

    Studies evaluating the effects of traffic safety measures are often done for the purpose of predicting the effects of future applications of the measures. The predictive value of evaluation studies is unknown. Some general arguments for and against attributing a general predictive value to the results of evaluation studies are discussed. Predictability is shown to depend on many factors. Meta-analyses of evidence from evaluation studies can be used as a basis for testing the predictive performance of such studies. The predictive performance of studies that have evaluated the safety effects of road lighting and traffic separation is tested. Predictive performance is found to depend mainly on whether the results of evaluation studies are stable over time or exhibit a trend. In the latter case, predictions based on evidence accumulated before the trend became apparent can be very erroneous. It is shown that increasing the amount of evidence that predictions are based on does not necessarily make the predictions more accurate. More research does not always improve predictive performance. PMID:8799438

  19. Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

  20. Better prediction of functional effects for sequence variants

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Elucidating the effects of naturally occurring genetic variation is one of the major challenges for personalized health and personalized medicine. Here, we introduce SNAP2, a novel neural network based classifier that improves over the state-of-the-art in distinguishing between effect and neutral variants. Our method's improved performance results from screening many potentially relevant protein features and from refining our development data sets. Cross-validated on >100k experimentally annotated variants, SNAP2 significantly outperformed other methods, attaining a two-state accuracy (effect/neutral) of 83%. SNAP2 also outperformed combinations of other methods. Performance increased for human variants but much more so for other organisms. Our method's carefully calibrated reliability index informs selection of variants for experimental follow up, with the most strongly predicted half of all effect variants predicted at over 96% accuracy. As expected, the evolutionary information from automatically generated multiple sequence alignments gave the strongest signal for the prediction. However, we also optimized our new method to perform surprisingly well even without alignments. This feature reduces prediction runtime by over two orders of magnitude, enables cross-genome comparisons, and renders our new method as the best solution for the 10-20% of sequence orphans. SNAP2 is available at: https://rostlab.org/services/snap2web Definitions used Delta, input feature that results from computing the difference feature scores for native amino acid and feature scores for variant amino acid; nsSNP, non-synoymous SNP; PMD, Protein Mutant Database; SNAP, Screening for non-acceptable polymorphisms; SNP, single nucleotide polymorphism; variant, any amino acid changing sequence variant. PMID:26110438

  1. Estimation of the Horizon in Photographed Outdoor Scenes by Human and Machine

    PubMed Central

    Herdtweck, Christian; Wallraven, Christian

    2013-01-01

    We present three experiments on horizon estimation. In Experiment 1 we verify the human ability to estimate the horizon in static images from only visual input. Estimates are given without time constraints with emphasis on precision. The resulting estimates are used as baseline to evaluate horizon estimates from early visual processes. Stimuli are presented for only ms and then masked to purge visual short-term memory and enforcing estimates to rely on early processes, only. The high agreement between estimates and the lack of a training effect shows that enough information about viewpoint is extracted in the first few hundred milliseconds to make accurate horizon estimation possible. In Experiment 3 we investigate several strategies to estimate the horizon in the computer and compare human with machine “behavior” for different image manipulations and image scene types. PMID:24349073

  2. Experimental microcosm study of the effects of Deepwater Horizon MC-252 oil on the geochemistry and microbiology of Gulf Coast sediment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donahoe, R. J.; Bej, A.; Raulerson, A.; Rentschler, E. K.

    2011-12-01

    Microcosm experiments were conducted to examine the impact of oil contamination on Gulf Coast sediment geochemistry and microbial population dynamics. Coastal sediment and seawater were collected from a salt marsh at Bayou la Batre, Alabama, which was not severely impacted by the BP Deepwater Horizon accident of April 2010. Sediment/seawater microcosms were set up in glass jars combusted for 5 hours at 450 degrees C. Non-sterile microcosms spiked with 500 ppm of MC-252 oil were sacrificed in duplicate at various time intervals over a 14 day period to establish a data time series. Sterile controls with and without oil and a non-sterile control without oil were sacrificed in duplicate at 14 days for comparison with the time-series experiments. Solid and aqueous phases were separated by centrifugation and prepared for analysis. Sediment mineralogy was determined using X-ray diffraction and acid-extractable sediment chemistry determined using EPA Method 3051A and ICP-OES analysis. The aqueous phase chemistry was analyzed by ICP-OES and ion chromatography. The mineralogy of the salt marsh sediment is predominantly quartz, but includes reactive phases such as clays (smectite, illite), feldspar, and iron oxide. Iron-bearing clays and iron oxides can serve as electron acceptors for the growth of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria. Microwave digestions of the microcosm substrate samples were performed in triplicate and show no significant variation in major element chemistry over the course of the two week experiment, suggesting that observed temporal trends in aqueous geochemistry may be due to ion exchange processes, rather than mineral dissolution reactions. Microcosm substrate trace element data which indicate possible differences with time are being analyzed for statistical significance. Analysis of aqueous solution geochemistry reveals several interesting temporal trends. Iron and manganese were released to solution after 2 days, suggesting the presence of facultative

  3. Predicting the physical effects of relocating Boston's sewage outfall

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Signell, R.P.; Jenter, H.L.; Blumberg, A.F.

    2000-01-01

    Boston is scheduled to cease discharge of sewage effluent in Boston Harbor in Spring 2000 and begin discharge at a site 14 km offshore in Massachusetts Bay in a water depth of about 30 m. The effects of this outfall relocation on effluent dilution, salinity and circulation are predicted with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The simulations predict that the new bay outfall will greatly decrease effluent concentrations in Boston Harbor (relative to the harbour outfall) and will not significantly change mean effluent concentrations over most of Massachusetts Bay. With the harbour outfall, previous observations and these simulations show that effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% throughout the harbour, with a harbour wide average of 1-2%. With the bay outfall, effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% only within a few km of the new outfall, and harbour concentrations drop to 0??1-0??2%, a 10-fold reduction. During unstratified winter conditions, the local increase in effluent concentration at the bay outfall site is predicted to exist throughout the water column. During stratified summer conditions, however, effluent released at the sea bed rises and is trapped beneath the pycnocline. The local increase in effluent concentration is limited to the lower layer, and as a result, surface layer effluent concentrations in the vicinity of the new outfall site are predicted to decrease (relative to the harbour outfall) during the summer. Slight changes are predicted for the salinity and circulation fields. Removing the fresh water associated with the effluent discharge in Boston Harbor is predicted to increase the mean salinity of the harbour by 0??5 and decrease the mean salinity by 0??10-0??15 within 2-3 km of the outfall. Relative to the existing mean flow, the buoyant discharge at the new outfall is predicted to generate density-driven mean currents of 2-4 cm s-1 that spiral out in a clockwise motion at the surface during winter and at the pycnocline (15-20 m depth

  4. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology. PMID:23687472

  5. ASC Supercomputers Predict Effects of Aging on Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Kubota, A; Reisman, D B; Wolfer, W G

    2005-08-25

    In an extensive molecular dynamics (MD) study of shock compression of aluminum containing such microscopic defects as found in aged plutonium, LLNL scientists have demonstrated that ASC supercomputers live up to their promise as powerful tools to predict aging phenomena in the nuclear stockpile. Although these MD investigations are carried out on material samples containing only about 10 to 40 million atoms, and being not much bigger than a virus particle, they have shown that reliable materials properties and relationships between them can be extracted for density, temperature, pressure, and dynamic strength. This was proven by comparing their predictions with experimental data of the Hugoniot, with dynamic strength inferred from gas-gun experiments, and with the temperatures behind the shock front as calculated with hydro-codes. The effects of microscopic helium bubbles and of radiation-induced dislocation loops and voids on the equation of state were also determined and found to be small and in agreement with earlier theoretical predictions and recent diamond-anvil-cell experiments. However, these microscopic defects play an essential role in correctly predicting the dynamic strength for these nano-crystalline samples. These simulations also prove that the physics involved in shock compression experiments remains the same for macroscopic specimens used in gas-gun experiments down to micrometer samples to be employed in future NIF experiments. Furthermore, a practical way was discovered to reduce plastic instabilities in NIF target materials by introducing finely dispersed defects.

  6. Prediction of reinjection effects on the Cerro Prieto geothermal system

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, C.F.; Mangold, D.C.; Doughty, C.; Lippmann, M.J.

    1982-08-10

    The response of the Cerro Prieto geothermal field to different reinjection schemes is predicted using a two-dimensional vertical reservoir model with single- or two-phase flow. The advance of cold fronts and pressure changes in the system associated with the inection operations are computed, taking into consideration the geologic characteristics of the field. The effects of well location, depth, and rates of injection are analyzed. Results indicate that significant pressure maintenance effects may be realized in a carefully designed reinjection operation.

  7. Quasilocal approach to general universal horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maciel, Alan

    2016-05-01

    Theories of gravity with a preferred foliation usually display arbitrarily fast signal propagation, changing the black hole definition. A new inescapable barrier, the universal horizon, has been defined and many static and spherically symmetric examples have been studied in the literature. Here, we translate the usual definition of the universal horizon in terms of an optical scalar built with the preferred flow defined by the preferred spacetime foliation. The new expression has the advantages of being of quasilocal nature and independent of specific spacetime symmetries in order to be well defined. Therefore, we propose it as a definition for general quasilocal universal horizons. Using the new formalism, we show that there is no universal analog of cosmological horizons for Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker models for any scale factor function, and we also state that quasilocal universal horizons are restricted to trapped regions of the spacetime. Using the evolution equation, we analyze the formation of universal horizons under a truncated Hořava-Lifshitz theory, in spherical symmetry, showing the existence of regions in parameter space where the universal horizon formation cannot be smooth from the center, under some physically reasonable assumptions. We conclude with our view on the next steps for the understanding of black holes in nonrelativistic gravity theories.

  8. Production and decay of evolving horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Alex B.; Visser, Matt

    2006-07-01

    We consider a simple physical model for an evolving horizon that is strongly interacting with its environment, exchanging arbitrarily large quantities of matter with its environment in the form of both infalling material and outgoing Hawking radiation. We permit fluxes of both lightlike and timelike particles to cross the horizon, and ask how the horizon grows and shrinks in response to such flows. We place a premium on providing a clear and straightforward exposition with simple formulae. To be able to handle such a highly dynamical situation in a simple manner we make one significant physical restriction—that of spherical symmetry—and two technical mathematical restrictions: (1) we choose to slice the spacetime in such a way that the spacetime foliations (and hence the horizons) are always spherically symmetric. (2) Furthermore, we adopt Painlevé Gullstrand coordinates (which are well suited to the problem because they are nonsingular at the horizon) in order to simplify the relevant calculations. Of course physics results are ultimately independent of the choice of coordinates, but this particular coordinate system yields a clean physical interpretation of the relevant physics. We find particularly simple forms for surface gravity, and for the first and second law of black hole thermodynamics, in this general evolving horizon situation. Furthermore, we relate our results to Hawking's apparent horizon, Ashtekar and co-worker's isolated and dynamical horizons, and Hayward's trapping horizon. The evolving black hole model discussed here will be of interest, both from an astrophysical viewpoint in terms of discussing growing black holes and from a purely theoretical viewpoint in discussing black hole evaporation via Hawking radiation.

  9. NEW HORIZONS IN SENSOR DEVELOPMENT

    PubMed Central

    Intille, Stephen S.; Lester, Jonathan; Sallis, James F.; Duncan, Glen

    2011-01-01

    Background Accelerometery and other sensing technologies are important tools for physical activity measurement. Engineering advances have allowed developers to transform clunky, uncomfortable, and conspicuous monitors into relatively small, ergonomic, and convenient research tools. New devices can be used to collect data on overall physical activity and in some cases posture, physiological state, and location, for many days or weeks from subjects during their everyday lives. In this review article, we identify emerging trends in several types of monitoring technologies and gaps in the current state of knowledge. Best practices The only certainty about the future of activity sensing technologies is that researchers must anticipate and plan for change. We propose a set of best practices that may accelerate adoption of new devices and increase the likelihood that data being collected and used today will be compatible with new datasets and methods likely to appear on the horizon. Future directions We describe several technology-driven trends, ranging from continued miniaturization of devices that provide gross summary information about activity levels and energy expenditure, to new devices that provide highly detailed information about the specific type, amount, and location of physical activity. Some devices will take advantage of consumer technologies, such as mobile phones, to detect and respond to physical activity in real time, creating new opportunities in measurement, remote compliance monitoring, data-driven discovery, and intervention. PMID:22157771

  10. [Visual illusions and moving horizon].

    PubMed

    Zhdan'ko, I M; Chulaevskiĭ, A O; Kovalenko, P A

    2012-09-01

    Results of psychological "additional investigation" of the crash of Boeing-737, "Aeroflot-Nord" on 14.09.2008 near Perm are presented. 37 pilots from the one of the leading airline companies sensed the attitude and rolling out the aircraft to the forward flight under the moving horizon with straight display of bank and tangage (view from the aircraft to the ground) in model conditions. 29 pilots (78.4%) made a mistake at determining the roll direction and tangage, they made a mistake at determining the roll direction 61 times (16.4%) and 44 times at determining the tangage direction, in other words they confused left and right bank and also nose-up and nose-down. Visual illusions of mobility of space and handling of ground (instead of aircraft) during the flight were revealed in pilots. These illusions may be the important cause of the following crashes. The necessity of "back" faultless display of bank in all aircrafts of civil aviation and development of computer complex for training of visual spatial orientation is proved. PMID:23156114

  11. Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

    2003-01-01

    The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

  12. Prediction of Relaminarization Effects on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Giel, P. W.

    2001-01-01

    An approach to predicting turbine blade heat transfer when turbulent flow relaminarizes due to strong favorable pressure gradients is described. Relaminarization is more likely to occur on the pressure side of a rotor blade. While stators also have strong favorable pressure gradients, the pressure surface is less likely to become turbulent at low to moderate Reynolds numbers. Accounting for the effects of relaminarization for blade heat transfer can substantially reduce the predicted rotor surface heat transfer. This in turn can lead to reduced rotor cooling requirements. Two-dimensional midspan Navier-Stokes analyses were done for each of eighteen test cases using eleven different turbulence models. Results showed that including relaminarization effects generally improved the agreement with experimental data. The results of this work indicate that relatively small changes in rotor shape can be utilized to extend the likelihood of relaminarization to high Reynolds numbers. Predictions showing how rotor blade heat transfer at a high Reynolds number can be reduced through relaminarization are given.

  13. Predicting the Spectral Effects of Soils on Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, Patrick D.; King, Bruce Hardison; Riley, Daniel M.

    2014-12-15

    The soiling losses on high concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems may be influenced by the spectral properties of accumulated soil. We predicted the response of an isotype cell to changes in spectral content and reduction in transmission due to soiling using measured UV/vis transmittance through soil films. Artificial soil test blends deposited on glass coupons were used to supply the transmission data, which was then used to calculate the effect on model spectra. Moreover, the wavelength transparency of the test soil was varied by incorporating red and yellow mineral pigments into graded sand. The more spectrally responsive (yellow) soils were predicted to alter the current balance between the top and middle subcells throughout a range of air masses corresponding to daily and seasonal variation.

  14. Predictions For The Effects Of BYORP On 1999 KW4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, Jay; Scheeres, D.

    2009-09-01

    We present an accurate secular theory of the effects of Binary YORP (BYORP) and discuss its implications. The theory represents the solar radiation pressure force, which is responsible for the BYORP effect, as a Fourier series based on the physical properties of the secondary body in a binary asteroid system. The theory averages over the binary orbit and over the heliocentric orbit separately. The theory predicts that the orbit expansion rate is independent of the asteroid's thermal inertia for a near circular orbit, although the evolution of the angular momentum and eccentricity vectors do depend on the thermal inertia. This is similar to the results found for YORP where the spin rate evolution is independent of thermal inertia, but the spin axis orientation evolution is not. The predicted secular rates from the theory can be used to make long term predictions of a binary asteroid system's complete orbital evolution. We have applied the theory to the binary asteroid 1999 KW4 for which we have accurate models. We compute the current growth rate of the semi-major axis to be 5.4 cm/year. The full secular theory was integrated forwards and backwards in time and predicts that the orbit will double in size in roughly 14,000 years and was half of it's current size approximately 20,000 years ago. Assuming that BYORP is active for this system, these results indicates a relatively recent formation for this object. The orbit will expand beyond the Hill sphere roughly 36,000 years from now, yielding a fairly short lifetime. These calculations have not incorporated solar tidal forces, but will in the future. Results of the full orbit evolution for 1999 KW4 and their implications will be presented at the meeting. This work was supported by a grant from NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program.

  15. How to predict the potential effectiveness of communication materials.

    PubMed

    Mercado, C M

    1979-01-01

    The Traveling Experiment (Travelex) is a new communications research method which enables researchers to predict relative effectiveness of communication materials in multilingual, agricultural, rural and personalistic societies. The measuring instrument used is the questionnaire, which can be converted into an interview if the subjects are nonliterate. Field researchers ask subjects either to evaluate instructional materials or to take brief tests in which the materials must be used to find the answers. Research findings indicate that the most effective publication format for attracting rural readers is the comic book with a brightly colored cover. Inside pages, however, have been shown to more effectively deliver instructional messages when they are in black and white. Realistic illustrations are preferred, as are opening sentences relating to the common experience of the target audience. The issues and implications for population control include the following: 1) a 2-sided presentation is most effective--a leaflet on the pill presenting both advantages and disadvantages of the contraceptive is most effective in correcting misconceptions among actual acceptors and, 2) the health appeal is more effective than the economic or status appeal, particularly for gaining acceptance of the IUD. When broadcast or film materials are used it is found that objective and interpretive reports are equally effective in increasing knowledge of family planning of various audiences. The broadcast version of the economic appeal seems to be effective in generating favorable attitudes toward the pill. PMID:12262256

  16. Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

  17. Possible Evidence for an Event Horizon in Cyg XR-1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dolan, Joseph F.; Fisher, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The X-ray emitting component in the Cyg XR-1/HDE226868 system is a leading candidate for identification as a stellar-mass sized black hole. The positive identification of a black hole as predicted by general relativity requires the detection of an event horizon surrounding the point singularity. One signature of such an event horizon would be the existence of dying pulse trains emitted by material spiraling into the event horizon from the last stable orbit around the black hole. We observed the Cyg XR-1 system at three different epochs in a 1400 - 3000 A bandpass with 0.1 ms time resolution using the Hubble Space Telescope's High Speed Photometer. Repeated excursions of the detected flux by more than three standard deviations above the mean are present in the UV flux with FWHM 1 - 10 ms. If any of these excursions are pulses of radiation produced in the system (and not just stochastic variability associated with the Poisson distribution of detected photon arrival times), then this short a timescale requires that the pulses originate in the accretion disk around Cyg XR-1. Two series of pulses with characteristics similar to those expected from dying pulse trains were detected in three hours of observation.

  18. Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS), revision 2.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patterson, W. L.; Hattan, C. P.; Hitney, H. V.; Paulus, R. A.; Barrios, A. E.; Lindem, G. E.; Anderson, K. D.

    1990-02-01

    The Engineer's Refractive Effects Prediction System (EREPS) is a system of individual stand-alone IBM/PC-compatible programs that have been designed to assist an engineer in properly assessing electromagnetic propagation effects of the lower atmosphere on proposed radar, electronic warfare, or communication systems. The EREPS models account for effects from optical interference, diffraction, tropospheric scatter, refraction, evaporation and surface-based ducting, and water-vapor absorption under horizontally homogeneous atmospheric conditions. EREPS revision 2.0 is an upgrade to revision 1.0 released in July 1988 (Hitney, 1988). There are two completely new programs in revision 2.0, COVER and PROPH, and a user-callable propagation-factor source code subroutine that may be helpful to anyone who wants to integrate the EREPS propagation model into their own applications program.

  19. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandrolini, L.; Reggiani, U.; Ogunsola, A.

    2007-09-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed.

  20. Black holes with bottle-shaped horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yu; Teo, Edward

    2016-06-01

    We present a new class of four-dimensional AdS black holes with noncompact event horizons of finite area. The event horizons are topologically spheres with one puncture, with the puncture pushed to infinity in the form of a cusp. Because of the shape of their event horizons, we call such black holes "black bottles." The solution was obtained as a special case of the Plebański-Demiański solution, and may describe either static or rotating black bottles. For certain ranges of parameters, an acceleration horizon may also appear in the space-time. We study the full parameter space of the solution, and the various limiting cases that arise. In particular, we show how the rotating black hole recently discovered by Klemm arises as a special limit.

  1. Horizon Entropy from Quantum Gravity Condensates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oriti, Daniele; Pranzetti, Daniele; Sindoni, Lorenzo

    2016-05-01

    We construct condensate states encoding the continuum spherically symmetric quantum geometry of a horizon in full quantum gravity, i.e., without any classical symmetry reduction, in the group field theory formalism. Tracing over the bulk degrees of freedom, we show how the resulting reduced density matrix manifestly exhibits a holographic behavior. We derive a complete orthonormal basis of eigenstates for the reduced density matrix of the horizon and use it to compute the horizon entanglement entropy. By imposing consistency with the horizon boundary conditions and semiclassical thermodynamical properties, we recover the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for any value of the Immirzi parameter. Our analysis supports the equivalence between the von Neumann (entanglement) entropy interpretation and the Boltzmann (statistical) one.

  2. Horizon Entropy from Quantum Gravity Condensates.

    PubMed

    Oriti, Daniele; Pranzetti, Daniele; Sindoni, Lorenzo

    2016-05-27

    We construct condensate states encoding the continuum spherically symmetric quantum geometry of a horizon in full quantum gravity, i.e., without any classical symmetry reduction, in the group field theory formalism. Tracing over the bulk degrees of freedom, we show how the resulting reduced density matrix manifestly exhibits a holographic behavior. We derive a complete orthonormal basis of eigenstates for the reduced density matrix of the horizon and use it to compute the horizon entanglement entropy. By imposing consistency with the horizon boundary conditions and semiclassical thermodynamical properties, we recover the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for any value of the Immirzi parameter. Our analysis supports the equivalence between the von Neumann (entanglement) entropy interpretation and the Boltzmann (statistical) one. PMID:27284642

  3. Efficient prediction methods for selecting effective siRNA sequences.

    PubMed

    Takasaki, Shigeru

    2010-02-01

    Although short interfering RNA (siRNA) has been widely used for studying gene functions in mammalian cells, its gene silencing efficacy varies markedly and there are only a few consistencies among the recently reported design rules/guidelines for selecting siRNA sequences effective for mammalian genes. Another shortcoming of the previously reported methods is that they cannot estimate the probability that a candidate sequence will silence the target gene. This paper first reviewed the recently reported siRNA design guidelines and clarified the problems concerning the guidelines. It then proposed two prediction methods-Radial Basis Function (RBF) network and decision tree learning-and their combined method for selecting effective siRNA target sequences from many possible candidate sequences. They are quite different from the previous score-based siRNA design techniques and can predict the probability that a candidate siRNA sequence will be effective. The methods imply high estimation accuracy for selecting candidate siRNA sequences. PMID:20022002

  4. Prediction of influenza B vaccine effectiveness from sequence data.

    PubMed

    Pan, Yidan; Deem, Michael W

    2016-08-31

    Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of human cases due to influenza B. Influenza B is a single-stranded RNA virus with a high mutation rate, and both prior immune history and vaccination put significant pressure on the virus to evolve. Due to the high rate of viral evolution, the influenza B vaccine component of the annual influenza vaccine is updated, roughly every other year in recent years. To predict when an update to the vaccine is needed, an estimate of expected vaccine effectiveness against a range of viral strains is required. We here introduce a method to measure antigenic distance between the influenza B vaccine and circulating viral strains. The measure correlates well with effectiveness of the influenza B component of the annual vaccine in humans between 1979 and 2014. We discuss how this measure of antigenic distance may be used in the context of annual influenza vaccine design and prediction of vaccine effectiveness. PMID:27473305

  5. Using resilience to predict the effects of disturbance

    PubMed Central

    Nattrass, Stuart; Lusseau, David

    2016-01-01

    Animal behaviour emerges from a complex interaction between an individual’s needs, life history strategies and the varying local environment. This environment is increasingly disturbed as human activity encroaches on previously unexposed regions. This disturbance can have different effects on individual animals or populations depending on their behavioural strategies. Here, we examine a means of predicting the resilience of individuals or populations to unanticipated disturbances, and we find that resilience that can be estimated from routinely collected behavioural observations is a good predictor of how rapidly an individual’s expected behaviour is returned to following a perturbation, and correlates strongly with how much population abundance changes following a disturbance. PMID:27145918

  6. Using Effective Subnetworks to Predict Selected Properties of Gene Networks

    PubMed Central

    Gunaratne, Gemunu H.; Gunaratne, Preethi H.; Seemann, Lars; Török, Andrei

    2010-01-01

    Background Difficulties associated with implementing gene therapy are caused by the complexity of the underlying regulatory networks. The forms of interactions between the hundreds of genes, proteins, and metabolites in these networks are not known very accurately. An alternative approach is to limit consideration to genes on the network. Steady state measurements of these influence networks can be obtained from DNA microarray experiments. However, since they contain a large number of nodes, the computation of influence networks requires a prohibitively large set of microarray experiments. Furthermore, error estimates of the network make verifiable predictions impossible. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we propose an alternative approach. Rather than attempting to derive an accurate model of the network, we ask what questions can be addressed using lower dimensional, highly simplified models. More importantly, is it possible to use such robust features in applications? We first identify a small group of genes that can be used to affect changes in other nodes of the network. The reduced effective empirical subnetwork (EES) can be computed using steady state measurements on a small number of genetically perturbed systems. We show that the EES can be used to make predictions on expression profiles of other mutants, and to compute how to implement pre-specified changes in the steady state of the underlying biological process. These assertions are verified in a synthetic influence network. We also use previously published experimental data to compute the EES associated with an oxygen deprivation network of E.coli, and use it to predict gene expression levels on a double mutant. The predictions are significantly different from the experimental results for less than of genes. Conclusions/Significance The constraints imposed by gene expression levels of mutants can be used to address a selected set of questions about a gene network. PMID:20949025

  7. Effective soil hydraulic conductivity predicted with the maximum power principle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westhoff, Martijn; Erpicum, Sébastien; Archambeau, Pierre; Pirotton, Michel; Zehe, Erwin; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Drainage of water in soils happens for a large extent through preferential flowpaths, but these subsurface flowpaths are extremely difficult to observe or parameterize in hydrological models. To potentially overcome this problem, thermodynamic optimality principles have been suggested to predict effective parametrization of these (sub-grid) structures, such as the maximum entropy production principle or the equivalent maximum power principle. These principles have been successfully applied to predict heat transfer from the Equator to the Poles, or turbulent heat fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere. In these examples, the effective flux adapts itself to its boundary condition by adapting its effective conductance through the creation of e.g. convection cells. However, flow through porous media, such as soils, can only quickly adapt its effective flow conductance by creation of preferential flowpaths, but it is unknown if this is guided by the aim to create maximum power. Here we show experimentally that this is indeed the case: In the lab, we created a hydrological analogue to the atmospheric model dealing with heat transport between Equator and poles. The experimental setup consists of two freely draining reservoirs connected with each other by a confined aquifer. By adding water to only one reservoir, a potential difference will build up until a steady state is reached. From the steady state potential difference and the observed flow through the aquifer, and effective hydraulic conductance can be determined. This observed conductance does correspond to the one maximizing power of the flux through the confined aquifer. Although this experiment is done in an idealized setting, it opens doors for better parameterizing hydrological models. Furthermore, it shows that hydraulic properties of soils are not static, but they change with changing boundary conditions. A potential limitation to the principle is that it only applies to steady state conditions

  8. Hafnium oxide nanoparticles: toward an in vitro predictive biological effect?

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Hafnium oxide, NBTXR3 nanoparticles were designed for high dose energy deposition within cancer cells when exposed to ionizing radiation. The purpose of this study was to assess the possibility of predicting in vitro the biological effect of NBTXR3 nanoparticles when exposed to ionizing radiation. Methods Cellular uptake of NBTXR3 nanoparticles was assessed in a panel of human cancer cell lines (radioresistant and radiosensitive) by transmission electron microscopy. The radioenhancement of NBTXR3 nanoparticles was measured by the clonogenic survival assay. Results NBTXR3 nanoparticles were taken up by cells in a concentration dependent manner, forming clusters in the cytoplasm. Differential nanoparticle uptake was observed between epithelial and mesenchymal or glioblastoma cell lines. The dose enhancement factor increased with increase NBTXR3 nanoparticle concentration and radiation dose. Beyond a minimum number of clusters per cell, the radioenhancement of NBTXR3 nanoparticles could be estimated from the radiation dose delivered and the radiosensitivity of the cancer cell lines. Conclusions Our preliminary results suggest a predictable in vitro biological effect of NBTXR3 nanoparticles exposed to ionizing radiation. PMID:24981953

  9. Prediction of the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Powder Insulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Lingxue; Park, Jiho; Lee, Cheonkyu; Jeong, Sangkwon

    The powder insulation method is widely used in structural and cryogenic systems such as transportation and storage tanks of cryogenic fluids. The powder insulation layer is constructed by small particle powder with light weight and some residual gas with high porosity. So far, many experiments have been carried out to test the thermal performance of various kinds of powder, including expanded perlite, glass microspheres, expanded polystyrene (EPS). However, it is still difficult to predict the thermal performance of powder insulation by calculation due to the complicated geometries, including various particle shapes, wide powder diameter distribution, and various pore sizes. In this paper, the effective thermal conductivity of powder insulation has been predicted based on an effective thermal conductivity calculationmodel of porous packed beds. The calculation methodology was applied to the insulation system with expanded perlite, glass microspheres and EPS beads at cryogenic temperature and various vacuum pressures. The calculation results were compared with previous experimental data. Moreover, additional tests were carried out at cryogenic temperature in this research. The fitting equations of the deformation factor of the area-contact model are presented for various powders. The calculation results show agood agreement with the experimental results.

  10. Apparent violation of the principle of equivalence and killing horizons. [for relativity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zimmerman, R. L.; Farhoosh, H.

    1980-01-01

    By means of the principle of equivalence the qualitative behavior of the Schwarzschild horizon about a uniformly accelerating particle was deduced. This result is confirmed for an exact solution of a uniformly accelerating object in the limit of small accelerations. For large accelerations the Schwarzschild horizon appears to violate the qualitative behavior established via the principle of equivalence. When similar arguments are extended to an observable such as the red shift between two observers, there is no departure from the results expected from the principle of equivalence. The resolution of the paradox is brought about by a compensating effect due to the Rindler horizon.

  11. Infrared horizon sensor modeling for attitude determination and control - Analysis and mission experience

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singhal, S. P.; Phenneger, M. C.; Stengle, T. H.

    1986-01-01

    This paper summarizes the work of the Flight Dynamics Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center in analyzing and evaluating the performance of a variety of infrared horizon sensors on 12 spaceflight missions from 1973 to 1984. Earth infrared radiance modeling, using the LOWTRAN 5 Program, and the Horizon Radiance Modeling Utility are also described. Mission data are presented for Magsat and the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite, with analysis to assess the sensor modeling as well as cloud and sun interference effects. Recommendations are made regarding future directions for the infrared horizon technology.

  12. Hawking Radiation from Horizons of Reissner Nordström de Sitter Black Hole with a Global Monopole via Anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shi-Wu; Liu, Xiong-Wei; Lin, Kai; Zeng, Xiao-Xiong; Yang, Shu-Zheng

    2008-08-01

    Hawking radiation from cosmological horizon and event horizon of the Reissner Nordström de Sitter black hole with a global monopole is studied via a new method that was propounded by Robinson and Wilzek and elaborated by Banerjee and Kulkarni. The results show that the gauge current and energy-momentum tensor fluxes, which required keeping gauge covariance and general coordinate invariance at the quantum level in the effective field theory, are exactly equivalent to those of Hawking radiation from the event horizon and the cosmological horizon, respectively.

  13. Pedotransfer functions for Irish soils - estimation of bulk density (ρb) per horizon type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, B.; Simo, I.; Sills, P.; Creamer, R. E.

    2016-01-01

    Soil bulk density is a key property in defining soil characteristics. It describes the packing structure of the soil and is also essential for the measurement of soil carbon stock and nutrient assessment. In many older surveys this property was neglected and in many modern surveys this property is omitted due to cost both in laboratory and labour and in cases where the core method cannot be applied. To overcome these oversights pedotransfer functions are applied using other known soil properties to estimate bulk density. Pedotransfer functions have been derived from large international data sets across many studies, with their own inherent biases, many ignoring horizonation and depth variances. Initially pedotransfer functions from the literature were used to predict different horizon type bulk densities using local known bulk density data sets. Then the best performing of the pedotransfer functions were selected to recalibrate and then were validated again using the known data. The predicted co-efficient of determination was 0.5 or greater in 12 of the 17 horizon types studied. These new equations allowed gap filling where bulk density data were missing in part or whole soil profiles. This then allowed the development of an indicative soil bulk density map for Ireland at 0-30 and 30-50 cm horizon depths. In general the horizons with the largest known data sets had the best predictions, using the recalibrated and validated pedotransfer functions.

  14. Pedotransfer functions for Irish soils - estimation of bulk density (ρb) per horizon type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, B.; Simo, I.; Sills, P.; Creamer, R. E.

    2015-10-01

    Soil bulk density is a key property in defining soil characteristics. It describes the packing structure of the soil and is also essential for the measurement of soil carbon stock and nutrient assessment. In many older surveys this property was neglected and in many modern surveys this property is omitted due to cost both in laboratory and labour and in cases where the core method cannot be applied. To overcome these oversights pedotransfer functions are applied using other known soil properties to estimate bulk density. Pedotransfer functions have been derived from large international datasets across many studies, with their own inherent biases, many ignoring horizonation and depth variances. Initially pedotransfer functions from the literature were used to predict different horizon types using local known bulk density datasets. Then the best performing of the pedotransfer functions, were selected to recalibrate and then were validated again using the known data. The predicted co-efficient of determination was 0.5 or greater in 12 of the 17 horizon types studied. These new equations allowed gap filling where bulk density data was missing in part or whole soil profiles. This then allowed the development of an indicative soil bulk density map for Ireland at 0-30 and 30-50 cm horizon depths. In general the horizons with the largest known datasets had the best predictions, using the recalibrated and validated pedotransfer functions.

  15. Event horizon scale emission models for Sagittarius A*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dexter, J.

    2014-05-01

    Very long baseline interferometry observations at millimeter wavelengths have detected source structure in Sgr A* on event horizon scales. Near-infrared interferometry will achieve similar resolution in the next few years. These experiments provide an unprecedented opportunity to explore strong gravity around black holes, but interpreting the data requires physical modeling. I discuss the calculation of images, spectra, and light curves from relativistic MHD simulations of black hole accretion. The models provide an excellent description of current observations, and predict that we may be on the verge of detecting a black hole shadow, which would constitute the first direct evidence for the existence of black holes.

  16. New Horizons in Enhancing the Proliferation and Differentiation of Neural Stem Cells Using Stimulatory Effects of the Short Time Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation.

    PubMed

    Eghlidospour, M; Mortazavi, S M J; Yousefi, F; Mortazavi, S A R

    2015-09-01

    Mobile phone use and wireless communication technology have grown explosively over the past decades. This rapid growth has caused widespread global concern about the potential detrimental effects of this technology on human health. Stem cells generate specialized cell types of the tissue in which they reside through normal differentiation pathways. Considering the undeniable importance of stem cells in modern medicine, numerous studies have been performed on the effects of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation on cellular processes such as: proliferation, differentiation, cell cycle and DNA repair processes. We have conducted extensive studies on beneficial (stimulatory) or detrimental biological effects of exposure to different sources of electromagnetic fields such as mobile phones, mobile phone base stations, mobile phone jammers, radar systems, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems and dentistry cavitrons over the past years. In this article, recent studies on the biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation in the range of radiofrequency (RF) on some important features of stem cells such as their proliferation and differentiation are reviewed. Studies reviewed in this paper indicate that the stimulatory or inhibitory effects of RF radiation on the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells depend on various factors such as the biological systems, experiment conditions, the frequency and intensity of RF and the duration of exposure. PMID:26396965

  17. New Horizons in Enhancing the Proliferation and Differentiation of Neural Stem Cells Using Stimulatory Effects of the Short Time Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Eghlidospour, M.; Mortazavi, S. M. J.; Yousefi, F.; Mortazavi, S. A. R.

    2015-01-01

    Mobile phone use and wireless communication technology have grown explosively over the past decades. This rapid growth has caused widespread global concern about the potential detrimental effects of this technology on human health. Stem cells generate specialized cell types of the tissue in which they reside through normal differentiation pathways. Considering the undeniable importance of stem cells in modern medicine, numerous studies have been performed on the effects of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation on cellular processes such as: proliferation, differentiation, cell cycle and DNA repair processes. We have conducted extensive studies on beneficial (stimulatory) or detrimental biological effects of exposure to different sources of electromagnetic fields such as mobile phones, mobile phone base stations, mobile phone jammers, radar systems, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems and dentistry cavitrons over the past years. In this article, recent studies on the biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation in the range of radiofrequency (RF) on some important features of stem cells such as their proliferation and differentiation are reviewed. Studies reviewed in this paper indicate that the stimulatory or inhibitory effects of RF radiation on the proliferation and differentiation of stem cells depend on various factors such as the biological systems, experiment conditions, the frequency and intensity of RF and the duration of exposure. PMID:26396965

  18. Unified first law and the thermodynamics of the apparent horizon in the FRW universe

    SciTech Connect

    Cai Ronggen; Cao Liming

    2007-03-15

    In this paper we revisit the relation between the Friedmann equations and the first law of thermodynamics. We find that the unified first law first proposed by Hayward to treat the outertrapping horizon of a dynamical black hole can be used to the apparent horizon (a kind of inner trapping horizon in the context of the FRW cosmology) of the FRW universe. We discuss three kinds of gravity theorties: Einstein theory, Lovelock thoery, and scalar-tensor theory. In Einstein theory, the first law of thermodynamics is always satisfied on the apparent horizon. In Lovelock theory, treating the higher derivative terms as an effective energy-momentum tensor, we find that this method can give the same entropy formula for the apparent horizon as that of black hole horizon. This implies that the Clausius relation holds for the Lovelock theory. In scalar-tensor gravity, we find, by using the same procedure, the Clausius relation no longer holds. This indicates that the apparent horizon of the FRW universe in the scalar-tensor gravity corresponds to a system of nonequilibrium thermodynamics. We show this point by using the method developed recently by Eling et al. for dealing with the f(R) gravity.

  19. A visual horizon affects steering responses during flight in fruit flies.

    PubMed

    Caballero, Jorge; Mazo, Chantell; Rodriguez-Pinto, Ivan; Theobald, Jamie C

    2015-09-01

    To navigate well through three-dimensional environments, animals must in some way gauge the distances to objects and features around them. Humans use a variety of visual cues to do this, but insects, with their small size and rigid eyes, are constrained to a more limited range of possible depth cues. For example, insects attend to relative image motion when they move, but cannot change the optical power of their eyes to estimate distance. On clear days, the horizon is one of the most salient visual features in nature, offering clues about orientation, altitude and, for humans, distance to objects. We set out to determine whether flying fruit flies treat moving features as farther off when they are near the horizon. Tethered flies respond strongly to moving images they perceive as close. We measured the strength of steering responses while independently varying the elevation of moving stimuli and the elevation of a virtual horizon. We found responses to vertical bars are increased by negative elevations of their bases relative to the horizon, closely correlated with the inverse of apparent distance. In other words, a bar that dips far below the horizon elicits a strong response, consistent with using the horizon as a depth cue. Wide-field motion also had an enhanced effect below the horizon, but this was only prevalent when flies were additionally motivated with hunger. These responses may help flies tune behaviors to nearby objects and features when they are too far off for motion parallax. PMID:26232414

  20. Perturbations of near-horizon geometries and instabilities of Myers-Perry black holes

    SciTech Connect

    Durkee, Mark N.; Reall, Harvey S.

    2011-05-15

    It is shown that the equations governing linearized gravitational (or electromagnetic) perturbations of the near-horizon geometry of any known extreme vacuum black hole (allowing for a cosmological constant) can be Kaluza-Klein reduced to give the equation of motion of a charged scalar field in AdS{sub 2} with an electric field. One can define an effective Breitenloehner-Freedman bound for such a field. We conjecture that if a perturbation preserves certain symmetries then a violation of this bound should imply an instability of the full black hole solution. Evidence in favor of this conjecture is provided by the extreme Kerr solution and extreme cohomogeneity-1 Myers-Perry solution. In the latter case, we predict an instability in seven or more dimensions and, in five dimensions, we present results for operator conformal weights assuming the existence of a conformal field theory dual. We sketch a proof of our conjecture for scalar field perturbations.

  1. A receding horizon scheme for discrete-time polytopic linear parameter varying systems in networked architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franzè, Giuseppe; Lucia, Walter; Tedesco, Francesco

    2014-12-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to address regulation problems for constrained polytopic Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems subject to input and state constraints in which both plant measurements and command signals in the loop are sent through communication channels subject to time-varying delays (Networked Control System (NCS)). The results here proposed represent a significant extension to the LPV framework of a recent Receding Horizon Control (RHC) scheme developed for the so-called robust case. By exploiting the parameter availability, the pre-computed sequences of one- step controllable sets inner approximations are less conservative than the robust counterpart. The resulting framework guarantees asymptotic stability and constraints fulfilment regardless of plant uncertainties and time-delay occurrences. Finally, experimental results on a laboratory two-tank test-bed show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  2. New perspectives for European climate services: HORIZON2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruning, Claus; Tilche, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    The developing of new end-to-end climate services was one of the core priorities of 7th Framework for Research and Technological Development of the European Commission and will become one of the key strategic priorities of Societal Challenge 5 of HORIZON2020 (the new EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020). Results should increase the competitiveness of European businesses, and the ability of regional and national authorities to make effective decisions in climate-sensitive sectors. In parallel, the production of new tailored climate information should strengthen the resilience of the European society to climate change. In this perspective the strategy to support and foster the underpinning science for climate services in HORIZON2020 will be presented.

  3. Atmospheric Results from the MGS Horizon Science Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, T. Z.; Murphy, J. R.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    1999-01-01

    The Horizon Science Experiment (HORSE) utilizes the Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly (MHSA) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) orbiter to measure 15-micron band thermal emission from the Martian atmosphere. During the first two phases of aerobraking, from September 1997 to May 1998, and from September 1998 to March 1999, one of the four MGS quadrants was pointed well onto the planet consistently during the near-periapsis aerobraking passes, allowing the device to obtain data on the latitudinal variation of middle atmospheric temperature (0.2 - 2.0 mbar). Of particular interest during the first phase (L(sub s) = 182 - 300 deg) were the effects of a prominent dust storm at L(sub s) =224 deg, and wavelike behavior in the strong temperature gradient near the north polar cap. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  4. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    SciTech Connect

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-07-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.

  5. Predicting the Spectral Effects of Soils on Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Burton, Patrick D.; King, Bruce Hardison; Riley, Daniel M.

    2014-12-15

    The soiling losses on high concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems may be influenced by the spectral properties of accumulated soil. We predicted the response of an isotype cell to changes in spectral content and reduction in transmission due to soiling using measured UV/vis transmittance through soil films. Artificial soil test blends deposited on glass coupons were used to supply the transmission data, which was then used to calculate the effect on model spectra. Moreover, the wavelength transparency of the test soil was varied by incorporating red and yellow mineral pigments into graded sand. The more spectrally responsive (yellow) soils were predictedmore » to alter the current balance between the top and middle subcells throughout a range of air masses corresponding to daily and seasonal variation.« less

  6. Star-Paths, Stones and Horizon Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brady, Bernadette

    2015-05-01

    Archaeoastronomers tend to approach ancient monuments focusing on the landscape and the horizon calendar events of sun and moon and, due to problems with precession, generally ignore the movement of the stars. However, locating the position of solar calendar points on the horizon can have other uses apart from calendar and/or cosmological purposes. This paper firstly suggests that the stars do not need to be ignored. By considering the evidence of the Phaenomena, a sky poem by Aratus of Soli, a third century BC Greek poet, and his use of second millennium BC star lore fragments, this paper argues that the stars were a part of the knowledge of horizon astronomy. Aratus' poem implied that the horizon astronomy of the late Neolithic and Bronze Age periods included knowledge of star-paths or 'linear constellations' that were defined by particular horizon calendar events and other azimuths. Knowledge of such star-paths would have enabled navigation and orientation, and by using permanent markers, constructed or natural, to define these paths, they were immune to precession as the stones could redefine a star-path for a future generation. Finally the paper presents other possible intentions behind the diverse orientation of passage tombs and some megalithic sites.

  7. On the Bartnik mass of apparent horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantoulidis, Christos; Schoen, Richard

    2015-10-01

    In this paper we characterize the intrinsic geometry of apparent horizons (outermost marginally outer trapped surfaces) in asymptotically flat spacetimes; that is, the Riemannian metrics on the two sphere which can arise. Furthermore we determine the minimal ADM mass of a spacetime containing such an apparent horizon. The results are conveniently formulated in terms of the quasi-local mass introduced by Bartnik (1989 Phys. Rev. Lett. 62 2346-8). The Hawking mass provides a lower bound for Bartnik’s quasilocal mass on apparent horizons by way of Penrose’s conjecture on time symmetric slices, proven in 1997 by Huisken and Ilmanen (2001 J. Differ. Geom. 59 353-437) and in full generality in 1999 by Bray (2001 J. Differ. Geom. 59 177-267). We compute Bartnik’s mass for all non-degenerate apparent horizons and show that it coincides with the Hawking mass. As a corollary we disprove a conjecture due to Gibbons in the spirit of Thorne’s hoop conjecture (Gibbons 2009 arXiv:0903.1580), and construct a new large class of examples of apparent horizons with the integral of the negative part of the Gauss curvature arbitrarily large.

  8. Biophysical Assessment and Predicted Thermophysiologic Effects of Body Armor

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Adam W.; Gonzalez, Julio A.; Karis, Anthony J.; Xu, Xiaojiang

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Military personnel are often required to wear ballistic protection in order to defend against enemies. However, this added protection increases mass carried and imposes additional thermal burden on the individual. Body armor (BA) is known to reduce combat casualties, but the effects of BA mass and insulation on the physical performance of soldiers are less well documented. Until recently, the emphasis has been increasing personal protection, with little consideration of the adverse impacts on human performance. Objective The purpose of this work was to use sweating thermal manikin and mathematical modeling techniques to quantify the tradeoff between increased BA protection, the accompanying mass, and thermal effects on human performance. Methods Using a sweating thermal manikin, total insulation (IT, clo) and vapor permeability indexes (im) were measured for a baseline clothing ensemble with and without one of seven increasingly protective U.S. Army BA configurations. Using mathematical modeling, predictions were made of thermal impact on humans wearing each configuration while working in hot/dry (desert), hot/humid (jungle), and temperate environmental conditions. Results In nearly still air (0.4 m/s), IT ranged from 1.57 to 1.63 clo and im from 0.35 to 0.42 for the seven BA conditions, compared to IT and im values of 1.37 clo and 0.45 respectively, for the baseline condition (no BA). Conclusion Biophysical assessments and predictive modeling show a quantifiable relationship exists among increased protection and increased thermal burden and decreased work capacity. This approach enables quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between ballistic protection, thermal-work strain, and physical work performance. PMID:26200906

  9. A multiple endpoint analysis of the effects of chronic exposure to sediment contaminated with Deepwater Horizon oil on juvenile Southern flounder and their associated microbiomes.

    PubMed

    Brown-Peterson, Nancy J; Krasnec, Michelle; Takeshita, Ryan; Ryan, Caitlin N; Griffitt, Kimberly J; Lay, Claire; Mayer, Gregory D; Bayha, Keith M; Hawkins, William E; Lipton, Ian; Morris, Jeffrey; Griffitt, Robert J

    2015-08-01

    Exposure to oiled sediments can negatively impact the health of fish species. Here, we examine the effects of chronic exposure of juvenile southern flounder, Paralichthys lethostigma, to a sediment-oil mixture. Oil:sediment mixtures are persistent over time and can become bioavailable following sediment perturbation or resuspension. Juvenile flounder were exposed for 32 days under controlled laboratory conditions to five concentrations of naturally weathered Macondo MC252 oil mixed into uncontaminated, field-collected sediments. The percent composition of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of the weathered oil did not change after mixing with the sediment. Spiked exposure sediments contained 0.04-395mg/kg tPAH50 (sum of 50 individual PAH concentration measurements). Mortality increased with both exposure duration and concentration of sediment-associated PAHs, and flounder exposed to concentrations above 8mg/kg tPAH50 showed significantly reduced growth over the course of the experiment. Evident histopathologic changes were observed in liver and gill tissues of fish exposed to more than 8mg/kg tPAH50. All fish at these concentrations showed hepatic intravascular congestion, macrovesicular hepatic vacoulation, telangiectasia of secondary lamellae, and lamellar epithelial proliferation in gill tissues. Dose-dependent upregulation of Cyp1a expression in liver tissues was observed. Taxonomic analysis of gill and intestinal commensal bacterial assemblages showed that exposure to oiled sediments led to distinct shifts in commensal bacterial population structures. These data show that chronic exposure to environmentally-relevant concentrations of oiled sediments produces adverse effects in flounder at multiple biological levels. PMID:26092636

  10. Holography of 3D flat cosmological horizons.

    PubMed

    Bagchi, Arjun; Detournay, Stéphane; Fareghbal, Reza; Simón, Joan

    2013-04-01

    We provide a first derivation of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy of 3D flat cosmological horizons in terms of the counting of states in a dual field theory. These horizons appear in the flat limit of nonextremal rotating Banados-Teitleboim-Zanelli black holes and are remnants of the inner horizons. They also satisfy the first law of thermodynamics. We study flat holography as a limit of AdS(3)/CFT(2) to semiclassically compute the density of states in the dual theory, which is given by a contraction of a 2D conformal field theory, exactly reproducing the bulk entropy in the limit of large charges. We comment on how the dual theory reproduces the bulk first law and how cosmological bulk excitations are matched with boundary quantum numbers. PMID:25166977

  11. Effective impedance for predicting the existence of surface states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Meng; Huang, Xueqin; Fang, Anan; Chan, C. T.

    2016-03-01

    We build an effective impedance for two-dimensional (2D) photonic crystals (PCs) comprising a rectangular lattice of dielectric cylinders with the incident electric field polarized along the axis of the cylinders. In particular, we discuss the feasibility of constructing an effective impedance for the case where the Bloch wave vector is far away from the center of Brillouin zone, where the optical response of the PC is necessarily anisotropic, and hence the effective description becomes inevitably angle dependent. We employ the scattering theory and treat the 2D system as a stack of 1D arrays. We consider only the zero-order interlayer diffraction, and all the higher order diffraction terms of interlayer scattering are ignored. This approximation works well when the higher order diffraction terms are all evanescent waves and the interlayer distance is far enough for them to decay out. Scattering theory enables the calculation of transmission and reflection coefficients of a finite-sized slab, and we extract the effective parameters such as the effective impedance (Ze) and the effective refractive index (ne) using a parameter retrieval method. We note that ne is uniquely defined only in a very limited region of the reciprocal space. (nek0a ≪1 , where k0 is the wave vector inside the vacuum and a is thickness of the slab for retrieval), but Ze is uniquely defined and has a well-defined meaning inside a much larger domain in the reciprocal space. For a lossless system, the effective impedance Ze is purely real for the pass band and purely imaginary in the band gaps. Using the sign of the imaginary part of Ze, we can classify the band gaps into two groups, and this classification explains why there is usually no surface state on the boundary of typical fully gapped PCs composed of a lattice of dielectric cylinders. This effective medium approach also allows us to predict the dispersion of surface states even when the surface wave vectors are well beyond the zone

  12. Emergence of the fuzzy horizon through gravitational collapse

    SciTech Connect

    Murugan, Anand; Sahakian, Vatche

    2006-11-15

    For a large enough Schwarzschild black hole, the horizon is a region of space where gravitational forces are weak; yet it is also a region leading to numerous puzzles connected to stringy physics. In this work, we analyze the process of gravitational collapse and black hole formation in the context of light-cone M-theory. We find that, as a shell of matter contracts and is about to reveal a black hole horizon, it undergoes a thermodynamic phase transition. This involves the binding of D0 branes into D2's, and the new phase leads to large membranes of the size of the horizon. These in turn can sustain their large size through back-reaction and the dielectric Myers effect--realizing the fuzzball proposal of Mathur and the Matrix black hole of M(atrix) theory. The physics responsible for this phenomenon lies in strongly coupled 2+1 dimensional noncommutative dynamics. The phenomenon has a universal character and appears generic.

  13. Summary and status of the Horizons ephemeris system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgini, J.

    2011-10-01

    Since 1996, the Horizons system has provided searchable access to JPL ephemerides for all known solar system bodies, several dozen spacecraft, planetary system barycenters, and some libration points. Responding to 18 400 000 requests from 300 000 unique addresses, the system has recently averaged 420 000 ephemeris requests per month. Horizons is accessed and automated using three interfaces: interactive telnet, web-browser form, and e-mail command-file. Asteroid and comet ephemerides are numerically integrated from JPL's database of initial conditions. This small-body database is updated hourly by a separate process as new measurements and discoveries are reported by the Minor Planet Center and automatically incorporated into new JPL orbit solutions. Ephemerides for other objects are derived by interpolating previously developed solutions whose trajectories have been represented in a file. For asteroids and comets, such files may be dynamically created and transferred to users, effectively recording integrator output. These small-body SPK files may then be interpolated by user software to reproduce the trajectory without duplicating the numerically integrated n-body dynamical model or PPN equations of motion. Other Horizons output is numerical and in the form of plain-text observer, vector, osculating element, or close-approach tables, typically expected be read by other software as input. About one hundred quantities can be requested in various time-scales and coordinate systems. For JPL small-body solutions, this includes statistical uncertainties derived from measurement covariance and state transition matrices. With the exception of some natural satellites, Horizons is consistent with DE405/DE406, the IAU 1976 constants, ITRF93, and IAU2009 rotational models.

  14. Rainfall variability effects on aggregate crop model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzotsi, Kofikuma Adzewoda

    Crop production operates in a highly heterogeneous environment. Space-time variability in weather and spatial heterogeneity in soil and management generate variability in crop yield. While it is practically unfeasible to thoroughly sample the variability of the crop environment, quantification of the associated uncertainties in crop performance can provide vital information for decision-making. The present study used rainfall data collected in southwestern Georgia at scales ranging from 1 km to 60 km to assess the effect of weather variability (in particular rainfall) on crop predictions aggregated over soil and management variations. The simple SALUS (System Approach to Land Use Sustainability) crop model was integrated in DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) then parameterized and tested for maize, peanut and cotton for use in obtaining the crop predictions. Analysis of the rainfall data indicated that variability in storm characteristics depends upon the season. Winter rainfall was more correlated at a mean distance of 54 km between locations than summer rainfall was at a mean distance of 3 km. The pairwise correlation between locations decreased with distance faster in the summer than in the winter. This rainfall variability translated into crop yield variability in the study area (about 3100 km²). It was found that weather variability explained 60% and 49% of maize yield variability respectively in 2010 and 2011 when heterogeneity in weather, soil, cultivar and planting dates were accounted for simultaneously. Uncertainties in crop predictions due to rainfall spatial uncertainty decreased as the number of sites where weather data were collected increased. Expressed in terms of maize yield coefficient of variation, this uncertainty decreased exponentially from 27% to approximately 4% at a sampling density of 20 weather locations. Based on 30 years of generated weather data, it was concluded that the general form of the relationship

  15. Effectiveness of impedance monitoring during radiofrequency ablation for predicting popping

    PubMed Central

    Iida, Hiroya; Aihara, Tsukasa; Ikuta, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    AIM: To retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of impedance monitoring for predicting popping during radiofrequency ablation (RFA) using internally cooled electrodes. METHODS: We reviewed 140 patients (94 males, 46 females; age range 73.0 ± 11.1 year) who underwent RFA between February 2006 and November 2008 with a modified protocol using a limited power delivery rather than a conventional one to avoid popping. All the patients provided their written informed consent, and the study was approved by the institutional review board. Intraprocedural impedances were measured for the study subjects, and the tumors were classified into three types according to the characteristics of their impedance curves: increasing, flat, or decreasing. The tumors were further sorted into seven subtypes (A-G) depending on the curvature of the impedance curve’s increase or decrease. Relative popping rates were determined for the three types and seven subtypes. A chi-square test was performed to estimate statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 148 nodules treated by RFA were analyzed. The study samples included 132 nodules of hepatocellular carcinoma, 14 nodules of metastatic liver cancer, and two nodules of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. The numbers of nodules with each impedance curve type were as follows: 37 increasing-type nodules, 43 flat-type nodules, and 68 decreasing-type nodules. Popping occurrence rates were 24.3%, 46.5% and 64.7%, respectively. Flat-type nodules exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to increasing-type nodules (P = 0.039). Decreasing-type nodules exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to increasing-type nodules (P < 0.0001). Notably, nodules that showed a sharp decrease in impedance in the latter ablation period (subtype E) exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to other subtypes. CONCLUSION: Intraprocedural impedance monitoring can be a useful tool to predict the occurrence of popping

  16. East Rim of Endeavour Crater on Horizon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site]

    A high point on the distant eastern rim of Endeavour Crater is visible on the horizon in this image taken by the panoramic camera (Pancam) on NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity on March 8, 2009, during the 1,821st Martian day, or sol, of the rover's mission on Mars.

    That portion of Endeavour's rim is about 34 kilometers (21 miles) away from Opportunity's position west of the crater when the image was taken. The width of the image covers approximately one degree of the horizon.

  17. North Rim of Endeavour Crater on Horizon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site]

    A northern portion of the rim of Endeavour Crater is visible on the horizon of this image taken by the panoramic camera (Pancam) on NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity on March 7, 2009, during the 1,820st Martian day, or sol, of the rover's mission on Mars.

    That portion of Endeavour's rim is about 20 kilometers (12 miles) away from Opportunity's position west of the crater when the image was taken. The width of the image covers approximately one degree of the horizon.

  18. Expanding your horizons in science and mathematics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Through the presentation of its Expanding Your Horizons in Science and Mathematics career education conferences for secondary school young women, the Math/Science Network continues its efforts to remove the educational, psychological, and cultural barriers which prevent women from entering math-and science-based careers. The Expanding Your Horizons conferences were presented on 77 college, university and high school campuses across the United States. This year, these unique one day conferences reached 15,500 students, 3,000 parents and educators, and involved 3,000 career women who volunteered their services as conference planners, workshop leaders, speakers, and role models.

  19. Hair-brane ideas on the horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinec, Emil J.; Niehoff, Ben E.

    2015-11-01

    We continue an examination of the microstate geometries program begun in arXiv:1409.6017, focussing on the role of branes that wrap the cycles which degenerate when a throat in the geometry deepens and a horizon forms. An associated quiver quantum mechanical model of minimally wrapped branes exhibits a non-negligible fraction of the gravitational entropy, which scales correctly as a function of the charges. The results suggest a picture of AdS3/CFT2 duality wherein the long string that accounts for BTZ black hole entropy in the CFT description, can also be seen to inhabit the horizon of BPS black holes on the gravity side.

  20. Horizons and plane waves: A review

    SciTech Connect

    Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund

    2003-11-06

    We review the attempts to construct black hole/string solutions in asymptotically plane wave spacetimes. First, we demonstrate that geometries admitting a covariantly constant null Killing vector cannot admit event horizons, which implies that pp-waves can't describe black holes. However, relaxing the symmetry requirements allows us to generate solutions which do possess regular event horizons while retaining the requisite asymptotic properties. In particular, we present two solution generating techniques and use them to construct asymptotically plane wave black string/brane geometries.

  1. Evidence for a sedimentary siloxane horizon

    SciTech Connect

    Pellenbarg, R.E.; Tevault, D.E.

    1986-07-01

    Selected samples from two Puget Sound sediment cores have been analyzed for poly(organo)siloxanes(silicones). One core was 60 years old at 30-cm depth (ages by lead-210 dating) and showed no evidence for silicones there. The second, 15 years old at depth, exhibited silicones at depth. Clearly shown is evidence for a siloxane horizon in theses two cores, with the presence of the horizon directly related to the fact that silicones have been in widespread use only since World War II. All samples were analyzed by solvent extraction and diffuse reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectrometry. 10 references, 2 figures, 1 table.

  2. Aerosol physical properties from satellite horizon inversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, C. R.; Malchow, H. L.; Merritt, D. C.; Var, R. E.; Whitney, C. K.

    1973-01-01

    The feasibility is investigated of determining the physical properties of aerosols globally in the altitude region of 10 to 100 km from a satellite horizon scanning experiment. The investigation utilizes a horizon inversion technique previously developed and extended. Aerosol physical properties such as number density, size distribution, and the real and imaginary components of the index of refraction are demonstrated to be invertible in the aerosol size ranges (0.01-0.1 microns), (0.1-1.0 microns), (1.0-10 microns). Extensions of previously developed radiative transfer models and recursive inversion algorithms are displayed.

  3. Hair from the Isolated Horizon Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corichi, A.; Sudarsky, D.

    2002-12-01

    The recently introduced Isolated Horizons (IH) formalism has become a powerful tool for realistic black hole physics. In particular, it generalizes the zeroth and first laws of black hole mechanics in terms of quasi-local quantities and serves as a starting point for quantum entropy calculations. In this note we consider theories which admit hair, and analyze some new results that the IH provides, when considering solitons and stationary solutions. Furthermore, the IH formalism allows to state uniqueness conjectures (i.e. horizon 'no-hair conjectures') for the existence of solutions.

  4. The Effect of Element Formulation on the Prediction of Boost Effects in Numerical Tube Bending

    SciTech Connect

    Bardelcik, A.; Worswick, M.J.

    2005-08-05

    This paper presents advanced FE models of the pre-bending process to investigate the effect of element formulation on the prediction of boost effects in tube bending. Tube bending experiments are conducted with 3'' (OD) IF (Interstitial-Free) steel tube on a fully instrumented Eagle EPT-75 servo-hydraulic mandrel-rotary draw tube bender. Experiments were performed in which the bending boost was varied at three levels and resulted in consistent trends in the strain and thickness distribution within the pre-bent tubes. A numerical model of the rotary draw tube bender was used to simulate pre-bending of the IF tube with the three levels of boost from the experiments. To examine the effect of element formulation on the prediction of boost, the tube was modeled with shell and solid elements. Both models predicted the overall strain and thickness results well, but showed different trends in each of the models.

  5. Will New Horizons See Dust Clumps in the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitense, Christian; Krivov, Alexander V.; Löhne, Torsten

    2014-06-01

    Debris disks are thought to be sculptured by neighboring planets. The same is true for the Edgeworth-Kuiper debris disk, yet no direct observational evidence for signatures of giant planets in the Kuiper Belt dust distribution has been found so far. Here we model the dust distribution in the outer solar system to reproduce the dust impact rates onto the dust detector on board the New Horizons spacecraft measured so far and to predict the rates during the Neptune orbit traverse. To this end, we take a realistic distribution of trans-Neptunian objects to launch a sufficient number of dust grains of different sizes and follow their orbits by including radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson and stellar wind drag, as well as the perturbations of four giant planets. In a subsequent statistical analysis, we calculate number densities and lifetimes of the dust grains in order to simulate a collisional cascade. In contrast to the previous work, our model not only considers collisional elimination of particles but also includes production of finer debris. We find that particles captured in the 3:2 resonance with Neptune build clumps that are not removed by collisions, because the depleting effect of collisions is counteracted by production of smaller fragments. Our model successfully reproduces the dust impact rates measured by New Horizons out to ≈23 AU and predicts an increase of the impact rate of about a factor of two or three around the Neptune orbit crossing. This result is robust with respect to the variation of the vaguely known number of dust-producing scattered disk objects, collisional outcomes, and the dust properties.

  6. Will new horizons see dust clumps in the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt?

    SciTech Connect

    Vitense, Christian; Krivov, Alexander V.; Löhne, Torsten

    2014-06-01

    Debris disks are thought to be sculptured by neighboring planets. The same is true for the Edgeworth-Kuiper debris disk, yet no direct observational evidence for signatures of giant planets in the Kuiper Belt dust distribution has been found so far. Here we model the dust distribution in the outer solar system to reproduce the dust impact rates onto the dust detector on board the New Horizons spacecraft measured so far and to predict the rates during the Neptune orbit traverse. To this end, we take a realistic distribution of trans-Neptunian objects to launch a sufficient number of dust grains of different sizes and follow their orbits by including radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson and stellar wind drag, as well as the perturbations of four giant planets. In a subsequent statistical analysis, we calculate number densities and lifetimes of the dust grains in order to simulate a collisional cascade. In contrast to the previous work, our model not only considers collisional elimination of particles but also includes production of finer debris. We find that particles captured in the 3:2 resonance with Neptune build clumps that are not removed by collisions, because the depleting effect of collisions is counteracted by production of smaller fragments. Our model successfully reproduces the dust impact rates measured by New Horizons out to ≈23 AU and predicts an increase of the impact rate of about a factor of two or three around the Neptune orbit crossing. This result is robust with respect to the variation of the vaguely known number of dust-producing scattered disk objects, collisional outcomes, and the dust properties.

  7. Effective impedance spectra for predicting rough sea effects on atmospheric impulsive sounds.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Patrice; Attenborough, Keith

    2005-02-01

    Two methods of calculating the effective impedance spectra of acoustically hard, randomly rough, two-dimensional surfaces valid for acoustic wavelengths large compared with the roughness scales have been explored. The first method uses the complex excess attenuation spectrum due to a point source above a rough boundary predicted by a boundary element method (BEM) and solves for effective impedance roots identified by a winding number integral method. The second method is based on an analytical theory in which the contributions from random distributions of surface scatterers are summed to obtain the total scattered field. Effective impedance spectra deduced from measurements of the complex excess attenuation above 2D randomly rough surfaces formed by semicylinders and wedges have been compared to predictions from the two approaches. Although the analytical theory gives relatively poor predictions, BEM-deduced effective impedance spectra agree tolerably well with measured data. Simple polynomials have been found to fit BEM-deduced spectra for surfaces formed by intersecting parabolas corresponding to average roughness heights between 0.25 and 7.5 m and for five incidence angles for each average height. Predicted effects of sea-surface roughness on sonic boom profiles and rise time are comparable to those due to turbulence and molecular relaxation effects. PMID:15759695

  8. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    SciTech Connect

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-07-15

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  9. Radioactive Doses - Predicted and Actual - and Likely Health Effects.

    PubMed

    Nagataki, S; Takamura, N

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations on 11 March 2011. Here we refer to reports from international organisations as sources of predicted values obtained from environmental monitoring and dose estimation models, and reports from various institutes in Japan are used as sources of individual actual values. The World Health Organization, based on information available up to 11 September 2011 (and published in 2012), reported that characteristic effective doses in the first year after the accident, to all age groups, were estimated to be in the 10-50 mSv dose band in example locations in evacuation areas. Estimated characteristic thyroid doses to infants in Namie Town were within the 100-200 mSv dose band. A report from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation published in 2014 shows that the effective dose received by adults in evacuation areas during the first year after the accident was 1.1-13 mSv. The absorbed dose to the thyroid in evacuated settlements was 7.2-35 mSv in adults and 15-83 mSv in 1-year-old infants. Individual external radiation exposure in the initial 4 months after the accident, estimated by superimposing individual behaviour data on to a daily dose rate map, was less than 3 mSv in 93.9% of residents (maximum 15 mSv) in evacuation areas. Actual individual thyroid equivalent doses were less than 15 mSv in 98.8% of children (maximum 25 mSv) in evacuation areas. When uncertainty exists in dose estimation models, it may be sensible to err on the side of caution, and final estimated doses are often much greater than actual radiation doses. However, overestimation of the dose at the time of an accident has a great influence on the psychology of residents. More than 100 000 residents have not returned to the evacuation areas 5 years after the Fukushima accident because of the social and mental effects during the initial period of the disaster. Estimates of

  10. Cutoffs, stretched horizons, and black hole radiators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaloper, Nemanja

    2012-11-01

    We argue that if the UV cutoff of an effective field theory with many low energy degrees of freedom is of the order, or below, the scale of the stretched horizon in a black hole background, which in turn is significantly lower than the Planck scale, the black hole radiance rate may not be enhanced by the emission of all the light IR modes. Instead, there may be additional suppressions hidden in the UV completion of the field theory, which really control which light modes can be emitted by the black hole. It could turn out that many degrees of freedom cannot be efficiently emitted by the black hole, and so the radiance rate may be much smaller than its estimate based on the counting of the light IR degrees of freedom. If we apply this argument to the Randall-Sundrum II (RS2) brane world, it implies that the emission rates of the low energy conformal field theory modes will be dramatically suppressed: its UV completion is given by the bulk gravity on AdS5×S5, and the only bulk modes which could be emitted by a black hole are the 4-dimensional (4D) s waves of bulk modes with small 5-dimensional momentum, or equivalently, small 4D masses. Further, their emission is suppressed by bulk warping, which lowers the radiation rate much below the IR estimate, yielding a radiation flux ˜(TBHL)2LHawking˜(TBH/MPl)2NLHawking, where LHawking is the Hawking radiation rate of a single light species. This follows directly from low conformal field theory cutoff μ˜L-1≪MPl, a large number of modes N≫1 and the fact that 4D gravity in RS2 is induced, MPl2≃Nμ2.

  11. Predicting Hunger: The Effects of Appetite and Delay on Choice.

    PubMed

    Read; van Leeuwen B

    1998-11-01

    Preferences often fluctuate as a result of transient changes in hunger and other visceral states. When current decisions have delayed consequences, the preferences that should be relevant are those that will prevail when the consequences occur. However, consistent with the notion of an intrapersonal empathy gap (Loewenstein, 1996) we find that an individual's current state of appetite has a significant effect on choices that apply to the future. Participants in our study made advance choices between healthy and unhealthy snacks (i.e., fruit and junk food) that they would receive in 1 week when they were either hungry (late in the afternoon) or satisfied (immediately after lunch). In 1 week, at the appointed time, they made an immediate choice, an opportunity to change their advance choice. Our main predictions were strongly confirmed. First, advance choices were influenced by current hunger as well as future hunger: hungry participants chose more unhealthy snacks than did satisfied ones. Second, participants were dynamically inconsistent: they chose far more unhealthy snacks for immediate choice than for advance choice. An additional hypothesis related to gender differences was also confirmed. Copyright 1998 Academic Press. PMID:9831521

  12. Predicting solvent effects in organosolv treatment of Southern yellow pine

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, S.M.; April, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    The bulk delignification of Southern Yellow Pine using various organic solvent systems has been found to occur in two distinct phases which can be described by first order kinetics. These results are consistent with the findings in the literature. In determining the effect of temperature on the apparent rate constants in several solvent systems (aqueous solutions of ethanol, n-butanol, phenol and butyl cellosolve), the delignification data were analyzed using transition state theory. This analysis showed that an isokinetic relationship exists for both the residual pulp and lignin in the delignification reactions. The existence of an isokinetic relationship is strong evidence that changing the solvent system does not change the mechanisms involved in the removal of total wood or lignin. The isokinetic temperature for the residual pulp remaining in Southern Yellow Pine delignification was found to be 597.3 plus or minus 30.4 degrees K. For the residual the isokinetic temperature was found to be 545.6 plus or minus 25.6 degrees K. Using the isokinetic relationship obtained from the set of baseline data, and a single experimentally determined rate constant from a new solvent system (THFA/water), the apparent rate constants at other temperatures in the range of interest were predicted within one percent of the experimentally determined values.

  13. Space Launch Initiative: New Capabilities ... New Horizons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Daniel L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents NASA's Space Launch Initiative (SLI) with new capabilities and new horizons. The topics include: 1) Integrated Space Transportation Plan; 2) SLI: The Work of an Nation; 3) SLI Goals and Status; 4) Composites and Materials; and 5) SLI & DoD/USAF Collaboration. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  14. Space Launch Initiative: New Capabilities - New Horizons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Daniel; Smith, Dennis E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents NASA's Space Launch Initiative (SLI) with new capabilities and new horizons. The topics include: 1) Integrated Space Transportation Plan; 2) SLI: The Work of a Nation; 3) SLI Goals and Status; 4) Composites and Materials; and 5) SLI and DOD/USAF Collaboration. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  15. Automatic star-horizon angle measurement system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koerber, K.; Koso, D. A.; Nardella, P. C.

    1969-01-01

    Automatic star horizontal angle measuring aid for general navigational use incorporates an Apollo type sextant. The eyepiece of the sextant is replaced with two light detectors and appropriate circuitry. The device automatically determines the angle between a navigational star and a unique point on the earths horizon as seen on a spacecraft.

  16. The NMC Horizon Report: 2013 Museum Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Freeman, A.

    2013-01-01

    The "NMC Horizon Report: 2013 Museum Edition," is a co-production with the Marcus Institute for Digital Education in the Arts (MIDEA), and examines six emerging technologies for their potential impact on and use in education and interpretation within the museum environment: BYOD (Bring Your Own Device), crowdsourcing, electronic…

  17. Gateway's Horizon: A Center of Excellence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herring, Jayne; Colony, Lee

    2007-01-01

    This article describes Gateway Technical College's Horizon Center for Transportation Technology, located in Kenosha, Wisconsin, which was the product of collaboration with business and industry, community support and a U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) grant. The center, which opened this fall, is a prime example of a sustainable community…

  18. On the differentiability order of horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szeghy, D.

    2016-06-01

    Let M be a time oriented Lorentzian manifold and H\\subset M a horizon. We will show that the differentiability order of the horizon can change only once along a generator, i.e. the following holds. If γ :I\\to H is a generator, thus, an inextendable past directed light-like geodesic on the horizon, where I=(α ,β ) or [α ,β ), then there exists a unique parameter {t}0\\in [α ,β ] and a positive integer k≥slant 1 such that the following is true. The horizon H is exactly of class {C}k at γ (t), for every t\\in ({t}0,β ), moreover H is only differentiable, but not of class {C}1 at every point γ (t), for which t\\in (α ,{t}0]. Moreover, if γ (α ) is the endpoint of only one generator then for a suitable space-like submanifold R\\subset H the first cut point of R along γ is γ (α ). Furthermore, all the points γ (t), for which t\\in [α ,{t}0], are non-injectivity points of R along γ . Moreover, if H is smooth at an interior point of γ, then H is smooth at every point of γ. MSC 53C50

  19. New Concepts on the Educational Horizon.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilchrist, Robert S.; Mitchell, Edna

    Four dimensions in education provide a basis for discussing future horizons: (1) curriculum development, (2) teacher education, (3) administration and organization, and (4) research and development. These areas are interdependent, and one cannot be improved or changed without affecting the other areas. Within these areas, some of the broad changes…

  20. New Horizons in Mathematics and Science Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thorson, Annette, Ed.

    2001-01-01

    This journal, intended for classroom teachers, provides a collection of essays organized around the theme of new horizons in mathematics and science education as well as a guide to instructional materials related to the theme. Topics addressed in the essays include digital libraries, the future of science curricula, integrated curricula, and…

  1. Agriculture’s Ethical Horizon, book review

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Roughly 6.5 billion people inhabit the earth, but over 1 billion people regularly go hungry. This food shortfall poses an ethical dilemma for agriculture, and Agriculture's Ethical Horizon grapples with this dilemma. It argues that agricultural productivity has been the quintessential value of agr...

  2. New horizons in osteoporosis therapies.

    PubMed

    Harsløf, Torben; Langdahl, Bente L

    2016-06-01

    Efficient therapies are available for the treatment of osteoporosis, however, there are still unmet needs. Anti-resorptive therapies only increase bone mineral density to a certain extent and reduce the risk of non-vertebral fractures by 20%, only one anabolic option is available-the effect of which levels off over time, and the evidence for combination therapy targeting both resorption and formation is limited. The current review will focus on emerging treatments of osteoporosis with the potential of enhanced anabolic effects (romosozumab and abaloparatide) or uncoupling of resorption and formation (odanacatib and romosozumab) as well as the effect of combination therapy. PMID:26989807

  3. Pluto's Extended Atmosphere: New Horizons Alice Lyman-α Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Retherford, Kurt D.; Gladstone, G. Randall; Stern, S. Alan; Weaver, Harold A.; Young, Leslie A.; Ennico, Kimberly A.; Olkin, Cathy B.; Cheng, Andy F.; Greathouse, Thomas K.; Hinson, David P.; Kammer, Joshua A.; Linscott, Ivan R.; Parker, Alex H.; Parker, Joel Wm.; Pryor, Wayne R.; Schindhelm, Eric; Singer, Kelsi N.; Steffl, Andrew J.; Strobel, Darrell F.; Summers, Michael E.; Tsang, Constantine C. C.; Tyler, G. Len; Versteeg, Maarten H.; Woods, William W.; Cunningham, Nathaniel J.; Curdt, Werner

    2015-11-01

    Pluto's upper atmosphere is expected to extend several planetary radii, proportionally more so than for any planet in our solar system. Atomic hydrogen is readily produced at lower altitudes due to photolysis of methane and transported upward to become an important constituent. The Interplanetary Medium (IPM) provides a natural light source with which to study Pluto's atomic hydrogen atmosphere. While direct solar Lyman-α emissions dominate the signal at 121.6 nm at classical solar system distances, the contribution of diffuse illumination by IPM Lyman-α sky-glow is roughly on par at Pluto (Gladstone et al., Icarus, 2015). Hydrogen atoms in Pluto's upper atmosphere scatter these bright Lyα emission lines, and detailed simulations of the radiative transfer for these photons indicate that Pluto would appear dark against the IPM Lyα background. The Pluto-Alice UV imaging spectrograph on New Horizons conducted several observations of Pluto during the encounter to search for airglow emissions, characterize its UV reflectance spectra, and to measure the radial distribution of IPM Lyα near the disk. Our early results suggest that these model predictions for the darkening of IPM Lyα with decreasing altitude being measureable by Pluto-Alice were correct. We'll report our progress toward extracting H and CH4 density profiles in Pluto's upper atmosphere through comparisons of these data with detailed radiative transfer modeling. These New Horizons findings will have important implications for determining the extent of Pluto's atmosphere and related constraints to high-altitude vertical temperature structure and atmospheric escape.This work was supported by NASA's New Horizons project.

  4. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading.

    PubMed

    Wlotko, Edward W; Federmeier, Kara D

    2015-07-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items ('They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.'). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 msec or 250 msec that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 msec SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 msec SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 msec SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 msec SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 msec SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 msec SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  5. Predicting the effects of dietary manipulation in chronic renal disease

    SciTech Connect

    El Nahas, A.M.; Brady, S.A.; Masters-Thomas, A.; Wilkinson, V.; Hilson, A.J.W.; Moorhead, J.F.

    1984-01-01

    It has been suggested that the progressive fall in renal function in some patients with CRF is due to hyperfusion of the remnant nephrons in response to the relatively high protein diet of modern life. The authors attempted to assess this and to see what was the shortest time in which any effect could be demonstrated. In the first phase, 39 patients with CRF had their renal function followed for 6 months on their normal diet and 6 months on a low-protein diet (LPD). The patients on LPD all showed an improvement in the rate of fall of renal function. This was marked in patients with mainly tubular disease, and poor in those with glomerular and vascular disease. In the second phase, 11 of these patients (and 1 other) were started on a high protein diet (HPD) for two weeks, and then switched back to a LPD for 2 weeks. There was no change in GFR during this period, but there were marked changes in ERPF, which correlated well with the changes in renal function in the first phase (r = 0.76, rho < 0.01); 4/4 patients with tubular disease showed a rise in ERPF on HPD and a fall on LPD, while only 4/8 with glomerular or vascular disease responded. In the third phase, they assessed the effect of a single high-protein meal in normal volunteers. This showed that there are major changes in hemodynamics following a meal, such that it is not possible to make any statement about renal function using the single-shot methods. The authors conclude that a 2-week period of HPD followed by LPD allows prediction of the possible beneficial response to diet in CRF; that this is best monitored by ERPF; and that a single meal may invalidate renal function measurement.

  6. Changes in Memory Prediction Accuracy: Age and Performance Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearman, Ann; Trujillo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Memory performance predictions are subjective estimates of possible memory task performance. The purpose of this study was to examine possible factors related to changes in word list performance predictions made by younger and older adults. Factors included memory self-efficacy, actual performance, and perceptions of performance. The current study…

  7. Predictable Charts: An Effective Strategy to Engage and Impact Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClure, Erin

    2016-01-01

    This article explores how to integrate reading, writing, speaking, and listening instruction by engaging students in Predictable Charts. Discover how Predictable Charts can support students with reading, writing, speaking, and listening in Kindergarten, First Grade, or Special Education classrooms. Through this article, learn the steps to…

  8. Predictability and Its Effects on Infant Visual Expectations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCarty, Michael E.

    This study using the Visual Expectation Paradigm explored ways in which predictability of stimulus location and time of appearance affect the formation of expectations in infants of 3 months. A total of 64 babies were randomly assigned to one of four groups that differed by predictability of stimulus location and time of stimulus appearance.…

  9. An horizon scan of biogeography.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Michael N; Algar, Adam C; Antonelli, Alexandre; Dávalos, Liliana M; Davis, Edward; Early, Regan; Guisan, Antoine; Jansson, Roland; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Marske, Katharine A; McGuire, Jenny L; Stigall, Alycia L; Swenson, Nathan G; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Gavin, Daniel G

    2013-01-01

    The opportunity to reflect broadly on the accomplishments, prospects, and reach of a field may present itself relatively infrequently. Each biennial meeting of the International Biogeography Society showcases ideas solicited and developed largely during the preceding year, by individuals or teams from across the breadth of the discipline. Here, we highlight challenges, developments, and opportunities in biogeography from that biennial synthesis. We note the realized and potential impact of rapid data accumulation in several fields, a renaissance for inter-disciplinary research, the importance of recognizing the evolution-ecology continuum across spatial and temporal scales and at different taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional levels, and re-exploration of classical assumptions and hypotheses using new tools. However, advances are taxonomically and geographically biased, and key theoretical frameworks await tools to handle, or strategies to simplify, the biological complexity seen in empirical systems. Current threats to biodiversity require unprecedented integration of knowledge and development of predictive capacity that may enable biogeography to unite its descriptive and hypothetico-deductive branches and establish a greater role within and outside academia. PMID:24707348

  10. An horizon scan of biogeography

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The opportunity to reflect broadly on the accomplishments, prospects, and reach of a field may present itself relatively infrequently. Each biennial meeting of the International Biogeography Society showcases ideas solicited and developed largely during the preceding year, by individuals or teams from across the breadth of the discipline. Here, we highlight challenges, developments, and opportunities in biogeography from that biennial synthesis. We note the realized and potential impact of rapid data accumulation in several fields, a renaissance for inter-disciplinary research, the importance of recognizing the evolution–ecology continuum across spatial and temporal scales and at different taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional levels, and re-exploration of classical assumptions and hypotheses using new tools. However, advances are taxonomically and geographically biased, and key theoretical frameworks await tools to handle, or strategies to simplify, the biological complexity seen in empirical systems. Current threats to biodiversity require unprecedented integration of knowledge and development of predictive capacity that may enable biogeography to unite its descriptive and hypothetico-deductive branches and establish a greater role within and outside academia. PMID:24707348

  11. Near-horizon circular orbits and extremal limit for dirty rotating black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaslavskii, O. B.

    2015-08-01

    We consider generic rotating axially symmetric "dirty" (surrounded by matter) black holes. Near-horizon circular equatorial orbits are examined in two different cases of near-extremal (small surface gravity κ ) and exactly extremal black holes. This has a number of qualitative distinctions. In the first case, it is shown that such orbits can lie as close to the horizon as one wishes on suitably chosen slices of space-time when κ →0 . This generalizes the observation of T. Jacobson [Classical Quantum Gravity 28, 187001 (2011), 10.1088/0264-9381/28/18/187001] made for the Kerr metric. If a black hole is extremal (κ =0 ), circular on-horizon orbits are impossible for massive particles but, in general, are possible in its vicinity. The corresponding black hole parameters determine also the rate with which a fine-tuned particle on the noncircular near-horizon orbit asymptotically approaches the horizon. Properties of orbits under discussion are also related to the Bañados-Silk-West effect of high energy collisions near black holes. Impossibility of the on-horizon orbits in question is manifestation of kinematic censorship that forbids infinite energies in collisions.

  12. Frequency Effects or Context Effects in Second Language Word Learning: What Predicts Early Lexical Production?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossley, Scott A.; Subtirelu, Nicholas; Salsbury, Tom

    2013-01-01

    This study examines frequency, contextual diversity, and contextual distinctiveness effects in predicting produced versus not-produced frequent nouns and verbs by early second language (L2) learners of English. The study analyzes whether word frequency is the strongest predictor of early L2 word production independent of contextual diversity and…

  13. The Pluto System As Seen By New Horizons Spacecraft

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Pluto system as NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft saw it in July 2015. This animation, made with real images taken by New Horizons, begins with Pluto flying in for its close-up on July 14; we then...

  14. SETAC launches global horizon scanning/research prioritization project

    EPA Science Inventory

    The SETAC World Council is pleased to announce the initiation of a Global Horizon Scanning and Prioritization Project aimed at identifying geographically specific research needs to address stressor impacts on environmental quality. In recent years, horizon scanning and research ...

  15. Earthquake Precursors An Example of Data Acquisition and Processing at Science Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherry, J. T.

    2007-12-01

    Science Horizons has used COTS products, namely its AQUINAS® System and SeismicRadar®, to identify earthquake precursors from seismic data 1,000 miles from the earthquake's epicenter. We have assumed that a precursor has the same characteristics, specifically the same azimuth and horizontal phase velocity, as the earthquake's P-wave. In addition, we have also shown the superiority of seismic arrays to detect precursors. The precursors identified by SeismicRadar® preceded the earthquakes with times ranging from thirteen hours to one minute. Therefore, one can conclude that the same assumption and the same technology should be able to detect numerous precursors that are a few miles from a pending earthquake's epicenter. If this conclusion is shown to be valid in seismic areas, earthquake precursors will no longer be elusive. Then we will be able to create algorithms, based on the precursor's location, duration, and frequency, that reliably predict earthquakes. Science Horizons has a patent pending on this earthquake prediction method. For more information regarding Science Horizons' earthquake prediction method, please go to our website at http://www.horizon.com .

  16. Cosmological thermodynamics with Hawking temperature on the apparent horizon and Unruh temperature of the fluid: Some interesting consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, Subhajit

    2016-06-01

    Thermodynamics on the cosmological apparent horizon of a flat Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker metric has been investigated with Bekenstein entropy and Hawking temperature on the horizon, and Unruh temperature for the fluid inside the horizon. This temperature is experienced by a radial comoving observer infinitesimally close to the horizon due to the pressure exerted by the fluid bounded by the horizon. An expression for the entropy of the fluid has been obtained which is found to be proportional to the volume of the thermodynamic system which implies that the Unruh temperature of the fluid is inconsistent with the holographic principle. Further, we have been able to find an expression for the effective entropy of the system. Finally, assuming a barotropic equation of state p=wρ (w constant) for the fluid, it has been shown that the generalized second law holds good for a non-phantom w, while thermodynamic equilibrium is never possible for such a scenario.

  17. Rindler-like Horizon in Spherically Symmetric Spacetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jinbo; He, Tangmei; Zhang, Jingyi

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, the Rindler-like horizon in a spherically symmetric spacetime is proposed. It is showed that just like the Rindler horizon in Minkowski spacetimes, there is also a Rindler-like horizon to a family of special observers in general spherically symmetric spacetimes. The entropy of this type of horizon is calculated with the thin film brick-wall model. The significance of entropy is discussed. Our results imply some connection between Bekeinstein-Hawking entropy and entanglement entropy.

  18. Rindler-like Horizon in Spherically Symmetric Spacetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jinbo; He, Tangmei; Zhang, Jingyi

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, the Rindler-like horizon in a spherically symmetric spacetime is proposed. It is showed that just like the Rindler horizon in Minkowski spacetimes, there is also a Rindler-like horizon to a family of special observers in general spherically symmetric spacetimes. The entropy of this type of horizon is calculated with the thin film brick-wall model. The significance of entropy is discussed. Our results imply some connection between Bekeinstein-Hawking entropy and entanglement entropy.

  19. Genomic Prediction in Pea: Effect of Marker Density and Training Population Size and Composition on Prediction Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Tayeh, Nadim; Klein, Anthony; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Jacquin, Françoise; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Chabert-Martinello, Marianne; Magnin-Robert, Jean-Bernard; Marget, Pascal; Aubert, Grégoire; Burstin, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Pea is an important food and feed crop and a valuable component of low-input farming systems. Improving resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses is a major breeding target to enhance yield potential and regularity. Genomic selection (GS) has lately emerged as a promising technique to increase the accuracy and gain of marker-based selection. It uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the breeding values of candidate lines to selection. A collection of 339 genetic resource accessions (CRB339) was subjected to high-density genotyping using the GenoPea 13.2K SNP Array. Genomic prediction accuracy was evaluated for thousand seed weight (TSW), the number of seeds per plant (NSeed), and the date of flowering (BegFlo). Mean cross-environment prediction accuracies reached 0.83 for TSW, 0.68 for NSeed, and 0.65 for BegFlo. For each trait, the statistical method, the marker density, and/or the training population size and composition used for prediction were varied to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy: the effect was large for the size and composition of the training population but limited for the statistical method and marker density. Maximizing the relatedness between individuals in the training and test sets, through the CDmean-based method, significantly improved prediction accuracies. A cross-population cross-validation experiment was further conducted using the CRB339 collection as a training population set and nine recombinant inbred lines populations as test set. Prediction quality was high with mean Q2 of 0.44 for TSW and 0.59 for BegFlo. Results are discussed in the light of current efforts to develop GS strategies in pea. PMID:26635819

  20. Complete single-horizon quantum corrected black hole spacetime

    SciTech Connect

    Peltola, Ari; Kunstatter, Gabor

    2009-03-15

    We show that a semiclassical polymerization of the interior of Schwarzschild black holes gives rise to a tantalizing candidate for a nonsingular, single-horizon black hole spacetime. The exterior has nonzero quantum stress energy but closely approximates the classical spacetime for macroscopic black holes. The interior exhibits a bounce at a microscopic scale and then expands indefinitely to a Kantowski-Sachs spacetime. Polymerization therefore removes the singularity and produces a scenario reminiscent of past proposals for universe creation via quantum effects inside a black hole.

  1. Microneedling: Advances and widening horizons

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Aashim; Yadav, Savita

    2016-01-01

    Microneedling is a very simple, safe, effective, and minimally invasive therapeutic technique. It was initially introduced for skin rejuvenation, however, now it is being used for a very wide range of indications including acne scar, acne, post-traumatic/burn scar, alopecia, skin rejuvenation, drug delivery, hyperhidrosis, stretch marks, and many more. Moreover, during the last 10 years, many new innovations have been made to the initial instrument, which was used for microneedling. This technique can be combined with other surgical techniques to provide better results. In particular, it is a very safe technique for dark skin types, where risk of postinflammatory pigmentation is very high with other techniques that damage the epidermis. In this review article, we are updating on the different instruments now available for this procedure, and its efficacy when performed alone or in combination with other techniques for various indications. PMID:27559496

  2. Microneedling: Advances and widening horizons.

    PubMed

    Singh, Aashim; Yadav, Savita

    2016-01-01

    Microneedling is a very simple, safe, effective, and minimally invasive therapeutic technique. It was initially introduced for skin rejuvenation, however, now it is being used for a very wide range of indications including acne scar, acne, post-traumatic/burn scar, alopecia, skin rejuvenation, drug delivery, hyperhidrosis, stretch marks, and many more. Moreover, during the last 10 years, many new innovations have been made to the initial instrument, which was used for microneedling. This technique can be combined with other surgical techniques to provide better results. In particular, it is a very safe technique for dark skin types, where risk of postinflammatory pigmentation is very high with other techniques that damage the epidermis. In this review article, we are updating on the different instruments now available for this procedure, and its efficacy when performed alone or in combination with other techniques for various indications. PMID:27559496

  3. Rogue events in the group velocity horizon

    PubMed Central

    Demircan, Ayhan; Amiranashvili, Shalva; Brée, Carsten; Mahnke, Christoph; Mitschke, Fedor; Steinmeyer, Günter

    2012-01-01

    The concept of rogue waves arises from a mysterious and potentially calamitous phenomenon of oceanic surfaces. There is mounting evidence that they are actually commonplace in a variety of different physical settings. A set of defining criteria has been advanced; this set is of great generality and therefore applicable to a wide class of systems. The question arises naturally whether there are generic mechanisms responsible for extreme events in different systems. Here we argue that under suitable circumstances nonlinear interaction between weak and strong waves results in intermittent giant waves with all the signatures of rogue waves. To obtain these circumstances only a few basic conditions must be met. Then reflection of waves at the so-called group-velocity horizon occurs. The connection between rogue waves and event horizons, seemingly unrelated physical phenomena, is identified as a feature common in many different physical systems. PMID:23152941

  4. Horizon ratio bound for inflationary fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Dodelson, Scott; Hui, Lam

    2003-09-26

    We demonstrate that the gravity wave background amplitude implies a robust upper bound on the wavelength-to-horizon ratio at the end of inflation: lambda/H(-1) less than or approximately equal e(60), as long as the cosmic energy density does not drop faster than radiation subsequent to inflation. This limit implies that N, the number of e-folds between horizon exit and the end of inflation for wave modes of interest, is less, similar 60 plus a model-dependent factor-for vast classes of slow-roll models, N less than or approximately equal 67. As an example, this bound solidifies the tension between observations of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and chaotic inflation with a phi(4) potential by closing the escape hatch of large N (<62). PMID:14525296

  5. Horizon Missions Technology Study. [for space exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, John L.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of the HMT Study was to develop and demonstrate a systematic methodology for identifying and evaluating innovative technology concepts offering revolutionary, breadkthrough-type capabilities for advanced space missions and for assessing their potential mission impact. The methodology is based on identifying the new functional, operational and technology capabilities needed by hypothetical 'Horizon' space missions that have performance requirements that cannot be met, even by extrapolating known space technologies. Nineteen Horizon Missions were selected to represent a collective vision of advanced space missions of the mid-21st century. The missions typically would occur beyond the lifetime of current or planned space assets. The HM methodology and supporting data base may be used for advanced technology planning, advanced mission planning and multidisciplinary studies and analyses.

  6. Finding apparent horizons in numerical relativity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornburg, Jonathan

    1996-10-01

    We review various algorithms for finding apparent horizons in 3+1 numerical relativity. We then focus on one particular algorithm, in which we pose the apparent horizon equation H≡∇ini+Kijninj-K=0 as a nonlinear elliptic (boundary-value) PDE on angular-coordinate space for the horizon shape function r=h(θ,φ), finite difference this PDE, and use Newton's method or a variant to solve the finite difference equations. We describe a method for computing the Jacobian matrix of the finite differenced H(h) sH (sh) function by symbolically differentiating the finite difference equations, giving the Jacobian elements directly in terms of the finite difference molecule coefficients used in computing sH (sh). Assuming the finite differencing scheme commutes with linearization, we show how the Jacobian elements may be computed by first linearizing the continuum H(h) equations, then finite differencing the linearized continuum equations. (This is essentially just the ``Jacobian part'' of the Newton-Kantorovich method for solving nonlinear PDEs.) We tabulate the resulting Jacobian coefficients for a number of different sH (sh) and Jacobian computation schemes. We find this symbolic differentiation method of computing the Jacobian to be much more efficient than the usual numerical-perturbation method, and also much easier to implement than is commonly thought. When solving the discrete sH (sh)=0 equations, we find that Newton's method generally shows robust convergence. However, we find that it has a small (poor) radius of convergence if the initial guess for the horizon position contains significant high-spatial-frequency error components, i.e., angular Fourier components varying as (say) cosmθ with m>~8. (Such components occur naturally if spacetime contains significant amounts of high-frequency gravitational radiation.) We show that this poor convergence behavior is not an artifact of insufficient resolution in the finite difference grid; rather, it appears to be caused

  7. On identified predictive control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

    1993-01-01

    Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

  8. Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time

  9. Effects of inhomogeneity on the causal entropic prediction of Λ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Daniel; Albrecht, Andreas

    2011-12-01

    The causal entropic principle aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Λ using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Λ may be left intact or dramatically altered.

  10. Towards feasible and effective predictive wavefront control for adaptive optics

    SciTech Connect

    Poyneer, L A; Veran, J

    2008-06-04

    We have recently proposed Predictive Fourier Control, a computationally efficient and adaptive algorithm for predictive wavefront control that assumes frozen flow turbulence. We summarize refinements to the state-space model that allow operation with arbitrary computational delays and reduce the computational cost of solving for new control. We present initial atmospheric characterization using observations with Gemini North's Altair AO system. These observations, taken over 1 year, indicate that frozen flow is exists, contains substantial power, and is strongly detected 94% of the time.

  11. New Horizons Pluto Flyby Guest Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simon, M.; Turney, D.; Fisher, S.; Carr, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    On July 14, 2015, after 9.5 years of cruise, NASA's New Horizons spacecraft flew past the Pluto system to gather first images humankind had ever seen on Pluto and its five moons. While much has been discovered about the Pluto system since New Horizons launch in 2006, the system has never been imaged at high resolution and anticipation of the "First Light" of the Pluto system had been anticipated by planetary enthusiasts for decades. The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), which built and operates New Horizons, was the focal point for gathering three distinct groups: science and engineering team members; media and public affairs representatives; and invited public, including VIP's. Guest operations activities were focused on providing information primarily to the invited public and VIP's. High level objectives for the Guest Operations team was set to entertain and inform the general public, offer media reaction shots, and to deconflict activities for the guests from media activities wherever possible. Over 2000 people arrived at APL in the days surrounding closest approach for guest, science or media operations tracks. Reaction and coverage of the Guest Operations events was universally positive and global in impact: iconic pictures of the auditorium waving flags during the moment of closest approach were published in media outlets on every continent. Media relations activities ensured coverage in all key media publications targeted for release, such as the New York Times, Science, Le Monde, and Nature. Social and traditional media coverage of the events spanned the globe. Guest operations activities are designed to ensure that a guest has a memorable experience and leaves with a lifelong memory of the mission and their partnership in the activity. Results, lessons learned, and other data from the New Horizons guest operations activity will be presented and analyzed.

  12. Unsupervised HLA Peptidome Deconvolution Improves Ligand Prediction Accuracy and Predicts Cooperative Effects in Peptide-HLA Interactions.

    PubMed

    Bassani-Sternberg, Michal; Gfeller, David

    2016-09-15

    Ag presentation on HLA molecules plays a central role in infectious diseases and tumor immunology. To date, large-scale identification of (neo-)Ags from DNA sequencing data has mainly relied on predictions. In parallel, mass spectrometry analysis of HLA peptidome is increasingly performed to directly detect peptides presented on HLA molecules. In this study, we use a novel unsupervised approach to assign mass spectrometry-based HLA peptidomics data to their cognate HLA molecules. We show that incorporation of deconvoluted HLA peptidomics data in ligand prediction algorithms can improve their accuracy for HLA alleles with few ligands in existing databases. The results of our computational analysis of large datasets of naturally processed HLA peptides, together with experimental validation and protein structure analysis, further reveal how HLA-binding motifs change with peptide length and predict new cooperative effects between distant residues in HLA-B07:02 ligands. PMID:27511729

  13. Finding KBO flyby targets for New Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spencer, John; Trilling, David; Buie, Marc; Parker, Alex; Tholen, David; Stern, S. Alan

    2014-02-01

    We propose to continue the search for Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) that can be reached by the New Horizons spacecraft after its 2015 Pluto flyby. This first flyby of a small (~50 km) KBO would revolutionize our understanding of KBOs, providing information that can be extrapolated to hundreds of thousands of similar KBOs. Our 2011 search discovered three objects that could be targeted with only about twice the fuel that New Horizons has available during excellent seeing, but seeing was insufficient to achieve this depth over the entire search area in 2012 or 2013. Deepening the search in 2014, taking advantage of lower star density and the shrinking search area, has a good chance of finding a targetable object given sufficiently good seeing, especially with Hyper Suprime Cam. We expect about 2.5 targetable objects with R less 26.0 in the HSC field of view. We will also refine the orbits of previously discovered objects, including ones that can be observed from a distance by New Horizons on its passage through the Kuiper Belt.

  14. Finding KBO flyby targets for New Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spencer, John; Trilling, David; Buie, Marc; Parker, Alex; Tholen, David; Stern, S. Alan

    2014-08-01

    We propose to continue the search for Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) that can be reached by the New Horizons spacecraft after its 2015 Pluto flyby, by following up on KBOs discovered in 2014A. The first flyby of a small (~50 km) KBO would revolutionize our understanding of KBOs, providing information that can be extrapolated to hundreds of thousands of similar KBOs. Our 2011 search discovered two objects that could be targeted with less than twice the fuel that New Horizons has available, during excellent seeing, but seeing was insufficient to achieve this depth over the entire search area in 2012 or 2013. Deepening the search with time allocated in 2014A, taking advantage of lower star density and the shrinking search area, has a chance of finding a targetable object given sufficiently good seeing, especially with Hyper Suprime Cam. 2014B follow-up is essential to produce orbits good enough to determine targetability, and allow recovery in 2015. We will also continue to refine the orbits of other previously discovered objects, including ones that can be observed from a distance by New Horizons on its passage through the Kuiper Belt.

  15. The effects of history and predictive information on the ability of the transport aircraft pilot to predict an alert

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1993-01-01

    The early detection of a developing aircraft-subsystem fault has the potential to lessen its ultimate severity. The lack of capability for such early detection is becoming critical in the aviation community. In the commercial sector, for example, twin-engine aircraft are being used for extended transport operations over water. One method to decrease the severity of a developing problem is to predict its behavior and to take appropriate corrective action. In order to investigate pilots' ability to predict events, an experiment was conducted where eighteen airline pilots predicted the time to an alert using three different displays of dials and three different time profile complexities. The three displays of dials were as follows: standard, resembling current aircraft dial presentations; history, indicating the value five seconds in the past; and predictive, indicating the value five seconds into the future. The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant velocity profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating then decelerating profiles. Although pilots indicated that they preferred the predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

  16. Evaluating the importance of characterizing soil structure and horizons in parameterizing a hydrologic process model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating the influence of soil structure and horizons into parameterizations of distributed surface water/groundwater models remains a challenge. Often, only a single soil unit is employed, and soil-hydraulic properties are assigned based on textural classification, without evaluating the potential impact of these simplifications. This study uses a distributed physics-based model to assess the influence of soil horizons and structure on effective parameterization. This paper tests the viability of two established and widely used hydrogeologic methods for simulating runoff and variably saturated flow through layered soils: (1) accounting for vertical heterogeneity by combining hydrostratigraphic units with contrasting hydraulic properties into homogeneous, anisotropic units and (2) use of established pedotransfer functions based on soil texture alone to estimate water retention and conductivity, without accounting for the influence of pedon structures and hysteresis. The viability of this latter method for capturing the seasonal transition from runoff-dominated to evapotranspiration-dominated regimes is also tested here. For cases tested here, event-based simulations using simplified vertical heterogeneity did not capture the state-dependent anisotropy and complex combinations of runoff generation mechanisms resulting from permeability contrasts in layered hillslopes with complex topography. Continuous simulations using pedotransfer functions that do not account for the influence of soil structure and hysteresis generally over-predicted runoff, leading to propagation of substantial water balance errors. Analysis suggests that identifying a dominant hydropedological unit provides the most acceptable simplification of subsurface layering and that modified pedotransfer functions with steeper soil-water retention curves might adequately capture the influence of soil structure and hysteresis on hydrologic response in headwater catchments.

  17. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  18. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  19. Chandra Uncovers New Evidence For Event Horizons Surrounding Black Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2001-01-01

    SAN DIEGO -- Astronomers have used NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory to study some of the darkest black holes yet observed. Their work strongly confirms the reality of the "event horizon," the one-way membrane around black holes predicted by Einstein's theory of relativity. The findings were presented today at the American Astronomical Society meeting by Drs. Michael Garcia, Jeffrey McClintock, Ramesh Narayan, and Stephen Murray of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Dr. Paul Callanan of University College, Cork, Ireland. With results that fundamentally differ from earlier black hole studies, Garcia and his colleagues have shown that some recently discovered black holes are not only ultra-dense, but actually possess event horizons that "vacuum up" energy from their surroundings. "It is a bit odd to say we've discovered something by seeing almost nothing at all -- less than the smile of the Cheshire cat, so to speak," said Garcia, lead author on a paper submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, "but, in essence, this is what we have done." Using data from Chandra and previous X-ray satellites like ROSAT, the Chandra team studied a dozen "X-ray novas," so named because they occasionally erupt as brilliant X-ray sources then settle into decades of dormancy. The great outpouring of X rays is due to a stream of gas that is pulled from the surface of a Sun-like companion star onto a compact object, either a black hole or a neutron star. By comparing the energy output from the dormant X-ray novas, the team discovered that the sources with black holes emitted only one percent as much energy while dormant as did the X-ray novae with neutron stars. "The most straightforward explanation of these observations is that the black hole candidates we have studied have event horizons that swallow just about all of the energy that surrounds them," said Murray. "Indeed, one could even say that this work shows why black holes deserve to be called ‘black.’" "The event

  20. A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

    2007-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

  1. The functional role of carbonate-cemented soil horizons in desert ecosystems: Spatial and temporal dynamics of plant water availability

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In water limited ecosystems, soil profile characteristics can control plant community composition and production through their effects on spatial and temporal patterns of plant available water. Little is known, however, about water availability in soil horizons cemented with carbonates (petrocalcic ...

  2. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

    2000-01-01

    Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

  3. Sorption of acetochlor, S-metolachlor, and atrazine in surface and subsurface soil horizons of Argentina.

    PubMed

    Bedmar, Francisco; Daniel, Peter E; Costa, José L; Giménez, Daniel

    2011-09-01

    Understanding herbicide sorption within soil profiles is the first step to predicting their behavior and leaching potential. Laboratory studies were conducted to determine the influence of surface and subsurface soil properties on acetochlor, atrazine, and S-metolachlor sorption. Soil samples were taken from horizons A, B, and C of two loamy soils of the humid pampas of Argentina under no-till management; horizon A was divided into two layers, A(0) (0-5 cm) and A(1) (5 cm to the full thickness of an A horizon). Sorption isotherms were determined from each sampled horizon using the batch equilibrium method and seven concentrations (0, 0.1, 0.5, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, and 20.0 mg L(-1)). Sorption affinity of herbicides was approximated by the Freundlich equation. The sorption strength K(f) (mg(1 - 1/n) kg(-1) L(1/n) ) over the soils and horizons studied followed the order S-metolachlor (16.51-29.19) > atrazine (4.85-12.34) ≥ acetochlor (5.17-11.97), which was closely related to the hydrophobicity of herbicides expressed as octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW) ). The K(f) values of the three herbicides were positively correlated with soil organic carbon, with a significance of p < 0.01. Values of K(f) for the three herbicides decreased with depth in the two soils, indicating greater sorption onto surficial soil horizons and possibly a delayed transport toward subsurface soils and subsequent pollution of groundwater. PMID:21692102

  4. Schrodinger formalism, black hole horizons, and singularity behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, John E.; Greenwood, Eric; Stojkovic, Dejan

    2009-12-15

    The Gauss-Codazzi method is used to discuss the gravitational collapse of a charged Reisner-Nordstroem domain wall. We solve the classical equations of motion of a thin charged shell moving under the influence of its own gravitational field and show that a form of cosmic censorship applies. If the charge of the collapsing shell is greater than its mass, then the collapse does not form a black hole. Instead, after reaching some minimal radius, the shell bounces back. The Schroedinger canonical formalism is used to quantize the motion of the charged shell. The limits near the horizon and near the singularity are explored. Near the horizon, the Schroedinger equation describing evolution of the collapsing shell takes the form of the massive wave equation with a position dependent mass. The outgoing and incoming modes of the solution are related by the Bogolubov transformation which precisely gives the Hawking temperature. Near the classical singularity, the Schroedinger equation becomes nonlocal, but the wave function describing the system is nonsingular. This indicates that while quantum effects may be able to remove the classical singularity, it may also introduce some new effects.

  5. Foregone Opportunities: Unveiling Teacher Expectancy Effects in Kindergarten Using Counterfactual Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Hyun Sik

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class 1998-1999 of the United States, this article evaluates teacher expectancy effects on achievement growth in kindergarten. We attempt to disentangle teacher expectancy effects from omitted variable bias or predictive validity by exploiting counterfactual predictions in…

  6. Micromechanical Prediction of the Effective Coefficients of Thermo-Piezoelectric Multiphase Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aboudi, Jacob

    1998-01-01

    The micromechanical generalized method of cells model is employed for the prediction of the effective elastic, piezoelectric, dielectric, pyroelectric and thermal-expansion constants of multiphase composites with embedded piezoelectric materials. The predicted effective constants are compared with other micromechanical methods available in the literature and good agreements are obtained.

  7. Effects of Contextual Predictability and Transitional Probability on Eye Movements During Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frisson, Steven; Rayner, Keith; Pickering, Martin J.

    2005-01-01

    In 2 eye-movement experiments, the authors tested whether transitional probability (the statistical likelihood that a word precedes or follows another word) affects reading times and whether this occurs independently from contextual predictability effects. Experiment 1 showed early effects of predictability, replicating S. A. McDonald and R. C.…

  8. Effect of Temporal and Spatial Rainfall Resolution on HSPF Predictive Performance and Parameter Estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Watershed scale rainfall‐runoff models are used for environmental management and regulatory modeling applications, but their effectiveness are limited by predictive uncertainties associated with model input data. This study evaluated the effect of temporal and spatial rainfall re...

  9. Effect of various approximations on predicted progressive failure in plain weave composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitcomb, John; Srirengan, Kanthikannan

    1995-01-01

    Three-dimensional finite element analysis was used to simulate progressive failure of a plain weave composite subjected to in-plane extension. The loading was parallel to one of the tow directions. The effects of various characteristics of the finite element model on predicted behavior were examined. The predicted behavior was found to be sensitive to quadrature order, mesh refinement, and the material degradation model. Also the sensitivity of the predictions to the tow waviness was studied. The predicted strength decreased considerably with increased waviness. More numerical studies and comparisons with experimental data are needed to establish reliable guidelines for accurate progressive failure prediction.

  10. Prediction of high frequency gust response with airfoil thickness effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lysak, Peter D.; Capone, Dean E.; Jonson, Michael L.

    2013-05-01

    The unsteady lift forces that act on an airfoil in turbulent flow are an undesirable source of vibration and noise in many industrial applications. Methods to predict these forces have traditionally treated the airfoil as a flat plate. At higher frequencies, where the relevant turbulent length scales are comparable to the airfoil thickness, the flat plate approximation becomes invalid and results in overprediction of the unsteady force spectrum. This work provides an improved methodology for the prediction of the unsteady lift forces that accounts for the thickness of the airfoil. An analytical model was developed to calculate the response of the airfoil to high frequency gusts. The approach is based on a time-domain calculation with a sharp-edged gust and accounts for the distortion of the gust by the mean flow around the airfoil leading edge. The unsteady lift is calculated from a weighted integration of the gust vorticity, which makes the model relatively straightforward to implement and verify. For routine design calculations of turbulence-induced forces, a closed-form gust response thickness correction factor was developed for NACA 65 series airfoils.

  11. JV Task 5 - Predictive Coal Quality Effects Screening Tool (PCQUEST)

    SciTech Connect

    Jason Laumb; Joshua Stanislowski

    2007-07-01

    PCQUEST, a package of eight predictive indices, was developed with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) support by the Energy & Environmental Research Center to predict fireside performance in coal-fired utility boilers more reliably than traditional indices. Since the development of PCQUEST, the need has arisen for additional improvement, validation, and enhancement of the model, as well as to incorporate additional fuel types into the program database. PCQUEST was developed using combustion inorganic transformation theory from previous projects and from empirical data derived from laboratory experiments and coal boiler field observations. The goal of this joint venture project between commercial industry clients and DOE is to further enhance PCQUEST and improve its utility for a variety of new fuels and systems. Specific objectives include initiating joint venture projects with utilities, boiler vendors, and coal companies that involve real-world situations and needs in order to strategically improve algorithms and input-output functions of PCQUEST, as well as to provide technology transfer to the industrial sector. The main body of this report provides a short summary of the projects that were closed from February 1999 through July 2007. All of the reports sent to the commercial clients can be found in the appendix.

  12. JV TASK - PREDICTIVE COAL QUALITY EFFECTS SCREENING TOOL (PCQUEST)

    SciTech Connect

    Jason D. Laumb; Joshua J. Stanislowski

    2006-08-01

    PCQUEST, a package of eight predictive indices, was developed with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) support by the Energy and Environmental Research Center to predict fireside performance in coal-fired utility boilers more reliably than traditional indices. Since the development of PCQUEST, the need has arisen for additional fuel types into the program database. PCQUEST was developed using combustion inorganic transformation theory from previous projects and from empirical data derived from laboratory experiments and coal boiler field observations. The goal of this joint venture project between commercial industry clients and DOE is to further enhance PCQUEST and improve its utility for a variety of new fuels and systems. Specific objectives include initiating joint venture projects with utilities, boiler vendors, and coal companies that involve real-world situations and needs in order to strategically improve algorithms and input-output functions of PCQUEST, as well as to provide technology transfer to the industrial sector. The main body of this report provides a short summary of the projects that were closed from February 1999 through June 2006. All of the reports sent to the commercial clients can be found in the appendix.

  13. Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

  14. Time Horizon and Social Scale in Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    In 2009 our center (CRED) published a first version of The Psychology of Climate Change Communication. In it, we attempted to summarize facts and concepts from psychological research that could help guide communication. While this work focused on climate change, most of the ideas are at least partly applicable for communication about a variety of natural hazards. Of the many examples in this guide, I mention three. Single-action bias is the human tendency to stop considering further actions that might be needed to deal with a given hazard, once a single action has been taken. Another example is the importance of group affiliation in motivating voluntary contributions to joint action. A third concerns the finding that group participation enhances understanding of probabilistic concepts and promotes action in the face of uncertainty. One current research direction, which goes beyond those included in the above publication, focuses on how time horizons arise in the thinking of individuals and groups, and how these time horizons might influence hazard preparedness. On the one hand, individuals sometimes appear impatient, organizations look for immediate results, and officials fail to look beyond the next election cycle. Yet under some laboratory conditions and in some subcultures, a longer time horizon is adopted. We are interested in how time horizon is influenced by group identity and by the very architecture of planning and decision making. Institutional changes, involving long-term contractual relationships among communities, developers, insurers, and governments, could greatly increase resilience in the face of natural hazards. Communication about hazards, in the context of such long-term contractual relationships might look very different from communication that is first initiated by immediate threat. Another new direction concerns the social scale of institutions and of communication about hazards. Traditionally, insurance contracts share risk among a large

  15. The horizon of the lightest black hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmet, Xavier; Casadio, Roberto

    2015-09-01

    We study the properties of the poles of the resummed graviton propagator obtained by resumming bubble matter diagrams which correct the classical graviton propagator. These poles have been previously interpreted as black holes precursors. Here, we show using the horizon wave-function formalism that these poles indeed have properties which make them compatible with being black hole precursors. In particular, when modeled with a Breit-Wigner distribution, they have a well-defined gravitational radius. The probability that the resonance is inside its own gravitational radius, and thus that it is a black hole, is about one half. Our results confirm the interpretation of these poles as black hole precursors.

  16. Generic isolated horizons and their applications

    PubMed

    Ashtekar; Beetle; Dreyer; Fairhurst; Krishnan; Lewandowski; Wisniewski

    2000-10-23

    The notion of isolated horizons is extended to allow for distortion and rotation. Space-times containing a black hole, itself in equilibrium but possibly surrounded by radiation, satisfy these conditions. The framework has three types of applications: (i) it provides new tools to extract physics from strong field geometry; (ii) it leads to a generalization of the zeroth and first laws of black hole mechanics and sheds new light on the "origin" of the first law; and (iii) it serves as a point of departure for black hole entropy calculations in nonperturbative quantum gravity. PMID:11030951

  17. Peripheral Vision Horizon Display (PVHD). Corrected Copy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    A Canadian invention, the peripheral vision horizon display (PVHD), shows promise in alleviating vertigo or disorientation in pilots flying under instrument conditions and easing the piloting task when flying in weather or other conditions requiring close attention to aircraft attitude instruments. A diversity of research and applied work was being done to investigate and validate the benefits of the PVHD during the years immediately preceding this conference. Organizers of the conference were able to assemble a group of outstanding presenters representing academic, industrial, and military. The theoretical foundation and applied use of the PVHD are discussed, and results from operational tests are presented.

  18. Art, the Urban Skyscraper, and Horizon Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mooney, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation delineates the historiography and the iconography of my urban public sculptures which use skyscrapers as today's standing stones, markers for horizon astronomy. From 1977 to the present time, my work has engaged the public to “look up and see.” Through ephemeral works in the sky and over the water to large-scale rooftop sculptures in Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, and Europe, viewers are oriented to the Milky Way, the summer triangle, and other celestial phenomena. This new urban scale art, transformative in context and gesture, has become part of the new cultural landscape.

  19. Prolate horizons and the Penrose inequality

    SciTech Connect

    Tippett, Benjamin K.

    2009-05-15

    The Penrose inequality has so far been proven in cases of spherical symmetry and in cases of zero extrinsic curvature. The next simplest case worth exploring would be nonspherical, nonrotating black holes with nonzero extrinsic curvature. Following Karkowski et al.'s construction of prolate black holes, we define initial data on an asymptotically flat spacelike 3-surface with nonzero extrinsic curvature that may be chosen freely. This gives us the freedom to define the location of the apparent horizon such that the Penrose inequality is violated. We show that the dominant energy condition is violated at the poles for all cases considered.

  20. Black hole thermodynamics from Euclidean horizon constraints.

    PubMed

    Carlip, S

    2007-07-13

    To explain black hole thermodynamics in quantum gravity, one must introduce constraints to ensure that a black hole is actually present. I show that for a large class of black holes, such "horizon constraints" allow the use of conformal field theory techniques to compute the density of states, reproducing the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy in a nearly model-independent manner. One standard string theory approach to black hole entropy arises as a special case, lending support to the claim that the mechanism may be "universal." I argue that the relevant degrees of freedom are Goldstone-boson-like excitations arising from the weak breaking of symmetry by the constraints. PMID:17678209

  1. European scientists' proposals for HORIZON 2000+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1994-10-01

    This programme, which has been given the name Horizon 2000+, will be presented to the press at 0900h on Monday 17 October 1994 at ESA Headquarters in Paris by Professor Lodewijk Woltjer, who chaired the committee of European scientific community representatives set up to consider the proposals submitted, and Professor Roger Bonnet, ESA's Science Programme Director. Journalists wishing to attend this press breakfast are requested to complete and return the attached form, if possible by fax: (33.1) 42.73.76.90.

  2. HORIZON RUN 3: TOPOLOGY AS A STANDARD RULER

    SciTech Connect

    Speare, Robert; Gott, J. Richard; Kim, Juhan; Park, Changbom E-mail: kjhan@kias.re.kr

    2015-02-01

    We study the physically self-bound cold dark matter halo distribution, which we associate with the massive galaxies within Horizon Run 3, to estimate the accuracy of the determination of the cosmological distance scale measured by the topology analysis. We apply the routine '''Contour 3D''' to the 108 Mock Survey of π steradians out to redshift z = 0.6, which effectively corresponds to the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) survey, and compare the topology with that of a Gaussian random phase field. We find that given three separate smoothing lengths λ = 15, 21, and 34 h {sup –1} Mpc, the least χ{sup 2} fit genus per unit volume (g) yields a 1.7% fractional uncertainty in smoothing length and angular diameter distance to z = 0.6. This is an improvement on former calibrations and presents an error estimate competitive with baryon acoustic oscillation scale techniques. We also present three-dimensional graphics of the Horizon Run 3 spherical mock survey to show a wealth of large-scale structures of the universe that are expected for surveys like BOSS.

  3. First Results from the Mars Global Surveyor Horizon Science Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Terry

    1998-09-01

    The Horizon Science Experiment (HORSE) uses the Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly on the MGS orbiter to measure 15 micrometer band thermal emission from the Martian atmosphere. During the first phase of aerobraking for MGS, from September 1997 through March 1998, one of the four MGS quadrants was pointed well onto the planet consistently during the near-periapsis braking passes, allowing the device to obtain data on the latitudinal variation of middle atmospheric temperature (0.2 - 2 mbar). Of particular interest were the effects of a prominent dust storm at Ls 224, and the strong gradient of temperature near the north polar cap. The dust storm produced 10-12K warming in the middle atmosphere across the latitude range from -50 to +60 degrees over a time period of 97 hrs. The increase was most pronounced at the longitudes near 330 where the storm originated in the southern hemisphere. During Ls 260-278, the latitude of steepest latitudinal temperature gradient (the location of the northern polar vortex) varied with longitude in a primarily wave 2 mode, with an amplitude of about 8 degrees and one maximum at 120 longitude. A small wave 1 term is also present.

  4. Effectiveness of Genomic Prediction of Maize Hybrid Performance in Different Breeding Populations and Environments

    PubMed Central

    Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Atlin, Gary N.; Hickey, John M.; Crossa, Jose; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Sorrells, Mark E.; Raman, Babu; Cairns, Jill E.; Tarekegne, Amsal; Semagn, Kassa; Beyene, Yoseph; Grudloyma, Pichet; Technow, Frank; Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F2-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F2-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set. PMID:23173094

  5. Semi-empirical Prediction Methods to Determine Explosion Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    vanDeursen, J. R.; vanDoormaal, J. C. A. M.

    2002-09-01

    In the framework of VDI-research, on behalf of the Dutch Ministry of Defence, a study is performed in order to get understanding of DISCRETE. DISCRETE is an abbreviation for 'dispersion prediction'. Some of the modules of DISPRE2 are evaluated and compared with other empirical codes. It can be concluded that the results of the modules in DISCRETE, such as the impulse and debris distance, are comparable to other empirical codes. Also, a parameter study is performed with one construction type. Construction type 6 is chosen because this is a magazine with an earth cover, which resembles the magazines in The Netherlands the best. The parameter study showed that some calculations gave results which were physically incorrect. Compared to the debris launch velocity, experimentally determined by the KLOTZ-group, the velocities as calculated with DISPRE2 are much higher. Concerning mass distribution some improvement in DISPRE2 is necessary.

  6. Culture, age and gender: effects on quality of predicted self and colleague reactions.

    PubMed

    Greipp, M E

    1996-02-01

    Ethnocentrism on the part of health care workers has been documented in the literature and has led to misdiagnosis, mistreatment and undertreatment of culturally diverse individuals worldwide. Aversive Insidious Racism and Ingroup Favoritism theories were used as the guiding framework for this study. Two hundred and sixty-eight female nurses from a large, urban, multi-service hospital in the United States were surveyed to identify those psychosocial variables (age, gender and culture status of the client) which enhanced and/or inhibited their predicted reactions with clients and which have the power to contribute to unethical decision making and less than ethical client care. The findings of this study, which is the first to examine nurses' predicted self and colleague reactions to multiple client variables concurrently, demonstrated that Client Gender as a main effect was not significant in itself when examining self and colleague predictions. Client Age as a main effect was significant for self predictions, p < 0.006, and for colleague predictions, p < 0.000. Client Culture as a main effect was significant for self predictions, p < 0.001 and for colleague predictions, p < 0.001. Many two-way and three-way interaction effects were significant. Subjects consistently predicted more favorable self reactions than colleague reactions, supporting Aversive Insidious Racism theory. Study findings did not consistently support Ingroup Favoritism theory. Subjects did not predict most favorable reactions with Caucasian female clients. PMID:8655268

  7. Is the Gravitational-Wave Ringdown a Probe of the Event Horizon?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, Vitor; Franzin, Edgardo; Pani, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    It is commonly believed that the ringdown signal from a binary coalescence provides a conclusive proof for the formation of an event horizon after the merger. This expectation is based on the assumption that the ringdown waveform at intermediate times is dominated by the quasinormal modes of the final object. We point out that this assumption should be taken with great care, and that very compact objects with a light ring will display a similar ringdown stage, even when their quasinormal-mode spectrum is completely different from that of a black hole. In other words, universal ringdown waveforms indicate the presence of light rings, rather than of horizons. Only precision observations of the late-time ringdown signal, where the differences in the quasinormal-mode spectrum eventually show up, can be used to rule out exotic alternatives to black holes and to test quantum effects at the horizon scale.

  8. Is the Gravitational-Wave Ringdown a Probe of the Event Horizon?

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Vitor; Franzin, Edgardo; Pani, Paolo

    2016-04-29

    It is commonly believed that the ringdown signal from a binary coalescence provides a conclusive proof for the formation of an event horizon after the merger. This expectation is based on the assumption that the ringdown waveform at intermediate times is dominated by the quasinormal modes of the final object. We point out that this assumption should be taken with great care, and that very compact objects with a light ring will display a similar ringdown stage, even when their quasinormal-mode spectrum is completely different from that of a black hole. In other words, universal ringdown waveforms indicate the presence of light rings, rather than of horizons. Only precision observations of the late-time ringdown signal, where the differences in the quasinormal-mode spectrum eventually show up, can be used to rule out exotic alternatives to black holes and to test quantum effects at the horizon scale. PMID:27176511

  9. 78 FR 54298 - Horizons ETFs Management (USA) LLC and Horizons ETF Trust; Notice of Application

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-03

    .... Applicants currently intend that the initial series of the Trust will be the Horizons Active Global Dividend... through either the NSCC or DTC; or (ii) in the case of Funds holding non-U.S. investment (``Global Funds... holder of Shares of a Global Fund would be subject to unfavorable income tax treatment if the...

  10. Generalized Vaidya spacetime in Lovelock gravity and thermodynamics on the apparent horizon

    SciTech Connect

    Cai Ronggen; Cao Liming; Hu Yapeng; Kim, Sang Pyo

    2008-12-15

    We present a kind of generalized Vaidya solutions in a generic Lovelock gravity. This solution generalizes the simple case in Gauss-Bonnet gravity reported recently by some authors. We study the thermodynamics of apparent horizon in this generalized Vaidya spacetime. Treating those terms except for the Einstein tensor as an effective energy-momentum tensor in the gravitational field equations, and using the unified first law in Einstein gravity theory, we obtain an entropy expression for the apparent horizon. We also obtain an energy expression of this spacetime, which coincides with the generalized Misner-Sharp energy proposed by Maeda and Nozawa in Lovelock gravity.

  11. Entropy spectrum of the apparent horizon of Vaidya black holes via adiabatic invariance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ge-Rui; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2016-01-01

    The spectroscopy of the apparent horizon of Vaidya black holes is investigated via adiabatic invariance. We obtain an equally spaced entropy spectrum with its quantum equal to the one given by Bekenstein [J. D. Bekenstein, Phys. Rev. D 7, 2333 (1973)]. We demonstrate that the quantization of entropy and area is a generic property of horizon, not only for stationary black holes, and the results also exit in a dynamical black hole. Our work also shows that the quantization of black hole is closely related to the tunneling formalism for deriving the Hawking effect, which is interesting.

  12. Regenerative PN ranging experience with New Horizons during 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, J. R.; Haskins, C. B.; DeBoy, C. C.

    The New Horizons mission to Pluto is the first deep space mission to include the capability of supporting regenerative PN ranging. During the current phase of the mission, sequential tone ranging supports the mission navigation requirements but regenerative ranging will expand the conditions (antenna selection, integration time, etc.) over which ranging will be successful during any extended mission following the Pluto fly-by, to objects in the Kuiper belt. Experience with regenerative ranging is being obtained now in preparation for its use in an extended mission. During most of 2012, New Horizons was in a hibernation state. Tracking was conducted between late April and early July. Six regenerative ranging passes were performed to bookend this interval; 2 at the beginning and 4 at the end. During that time, the distance between the spacecraft and Earth was in excess of 22 Astronautical Units (AU) and the Pr/No levels were below 15 dB-Hz. A seventh regenerative ranging pass was performed in May at a higher signal level in order to test the acquisition of the ranging code by the spacecraft during a variety of conditions. The consistency of the regenerative range measurements with the adjacent sequential tone ranging measurements has been demonstrated and serves as a check on the calibration of the regenerative ranging system conditions. The range measurement precision has been shown to follow the predictions that are based on the uplink and downlink signal power. The regenerative ranging system has been shown to acquire the uplink ranging code with and without a commanded reset and regardless of the noise bandwidth setting of the system. This paper will present the data that was obtained during 2012 and will describe the analysis results for the regenerative ranging experience during 2012.

  13. Forecasting geomagnetic activity at monthly and annual horizons: Time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2015-10-01

    Most of the existing work on forecasting geomagnetic activity has been over short intervals, on the order of hours or days. However, it is also of interest to predict over longer horizons, ranging from months to years. Forecasting tests are run for the Aa index, which begins in 1868 and provides the longest continuous records of geomagnetic activity. This series is challenging to forecast. While it exhibits cycles at 11-22 years, the amplitude and period of the cycles varies over time. There is also evidence of discontinuous trending: the slope and direction of the trend change repeatedly. Further, at the monthly resolution, the data exhibits nonlinear variability, with intermittent large outliers. Several types of models are tested: regressions, neural networks, a frequency domain algorithm, and combined models. Forecasting tests are run at horizons of 1-11 years using the annual data, and 1-12 months using the monthly data. At the 1-year horizon, the mean errors are in the range of 13-17 percent while the median errors are in the range of 10-14 percent. The accuracy of the models deteriorates at longer horizons. At 5 years, the mean errors lie in the range of 21-23 percent, and at 11 years, 23-25 percent. At the 1 year horizon, the most accurate forecast is achieved by a combined model, but over longer horizons (2-11 years), the neural net dominates. At the monthly resolution, the mean errors are in the range of 17-19 percent at 1 month, while the median errors lie in a range of 14-17 percent. The mean error increases to 23-24 percent at 5 months, and 25 percent at 12 months. A model combining frequency and time domain methods is marginally better than regressions and neural networks alone, up to 11 months. The main conclusion is that geomagnetic activity can only be predicted to within a limited threshold of accuracy, over a given range of horizons. This is consistent with the finding of irregular trends and cycles in the annual data and nonlinear variability in

  14. Horizon sensor errors calculated by computer models compared with errors measured in orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ward, K. A.; Hogan, R.; Andary, J.

    1982-01-01

    Using a computer program to model the earth's horizon and to duplicate the signal processing procedure employed by the ESA (Earth Sensor Assembly), errors due to radiance variation have been computed for a particular time of the year. Errors actually occurring in flight at the same time of year are inferred from integrated rate gyro data for a satellite of the TIROS series of NASA weather satellites (NOAA-A). The predicted performance is compared with actual flight history.

  15. Gribov's horizon and the ghost dressing function

    SciTech Connect

    Boucaud, Ph.; Leroy, J. P.; Le Yaouanc, A.; Micheli, J.; Pene, O.; Rodriguez-Quintero, J.

    2009-11-01

    We study a relation recently derived by K. Kondo at zero momentum between the Zwanziger's horizon function, the ghost dressing function and Kugo's functions u and w. We agree with this result as far as bare quantities are considered. However, assuming the validity of the horizon gap equation, we argue that the solution w(0)=0 is not acceptable since it would lead to a vanishing renormalized ghost dressing function. On the contrary, when the cutoff goes to infinity, u(0){yields}{infinity}, w(0){yields}-{infinity} such that u(0)+w(0){yields}-1. Furthermore w and u are not multiplicatively renormalizable. Relaxing the gap equation allows w(0)=0 with u(0){yields}-1. In both cases the bare ghost dressing function, F(0,{lambda}), goes logarithmically to infinity at infinite cutoff. We show that, although the lattice results provide bare results not so different from the F(0,{lambda})=3 solution, this is an accident due to the fact that the lattice cutoffs lie in the range 1-3 GeV{sup -1}. We show that the renormalized ghost dressing function should be finite and nonzero at zero momentum and can be reliably estimated on the lattice up to powers of the lattice spacing; from published data on a 80{sup 4} lattice at {beta}=5.7 we obtain F{sub R}(0,{mu}=1.5 GeV){approx_equal}2.2.

  16. Cool horizons lead to information loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chowdhury, Borun D.

    2013-10-01

    There are two evidences for information loss during black hole evaporation: (i) a pure state evolves to a mixed state and (ii) the map from the initial state to final state is non-invertible. Any proposed resolution of the information paradox must address both these issues. The firewall argument focuses only on the first and this leads to order one deviations from the Unruh vacuum for maximally entangled black holes. The nature of the argument does not extend to black holes in pure states. It was shown by Avery, Puhm and the author that requiring the initial state to final state map to be invertible mandates structure at the horizon even for pure states. The proof works if black holes can be formed in generic states and in this paper we show that this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate how models proposed by Susskind, Papadodimas et al. and Maldacena et al. end up making the initial to final state map non-invertible and thus make the horizon "cool" at the cost of unitarity.

  17. Radiation from quantum weakly dynamical horizons in loop quantum gravity.

    PubMed

    Pranzetti, Daniele

    2012-07-01

    We provide a statistical mechanical analysis of quantum horizons near equilibrium in the grand canonical ensemble. By matching the description of the nonequilibrium phase in terms of weakly dynamical horizons with a local statistical framework, we implement loop quantum gravity dynamics near the boundary. The resulting radiation process provides a quantum gravity description of the horizon evaporation. For large black holes, the spectrum we derive presents a discrete structure which could be potentially observable. PMID:23031096

  18. Dynamical horizons: energy, angular momentum, fluxes, and balance laws.

    PubMed

    Ashtekar, Abhay; Krishnan, Badri

    2002-12-23

    Dynamical horizons are considered in full, nonlinear general relativity. Expressions of fluxes of energy and angular momentum carried by gravitational waves across these horizons are obtained. Fluxes are local, the energy flux is positive, and change in the horizon area is related to these fluxes. The flux formulas also give rise to balance laws analogous to the ones obtained by Bondi and Sachs at null infinity and provide generalizations of the first and second laws of black-hole mechanics. PMID:12484807

  19. Effect of Hoop Stress on Ball Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard; Coe, Harold H.

    1995-01-01

    A finite-element analysis (FEA) of a generic, dimensionally normalized inner race of an angular-contact ball bearing was performed under varying conditions of speed and the press (or interference) fit of the inner-race bore on a journal. The FEA results at the ball-race contact were used to derive an equation from which was obtained the radius of an equivalent cylindrical bearing race with the same or similar hoop stress. The radius of the equivalent cylinder was used to obtain a generalized closed-form approximation of the hoop stresses at the ball-inner-race contact in an angular-contact ball bearing. A life analysis was performed on both a 45- and a 120-mm-bore, angular-contact ball bearing. The predicted lives with and without hoop stress were compared with experimental endurance results obtained at 12000 and 25000 rpm with the 120-mm-bore ball bearing. A life factor equation based on hoop stress is presented.

  20. Phylogenomics of Ligand-Gated Ion Channels Predicts Monepantel Effect

    PubMed Central

    Rufener, Lucien; Keiser, Jennifer; Kaminsky, Ronald; Mäser, Pascal; Nilsson, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    The recently launched veterinary anthelmintic drench for sheep (Novartis Animal Health Inc., Switzerland) containing the nematocide monepantel represents a new class of anthelmintics: the amino-acetonitrile derivatives (AADs), much needed in view of widespread resistance to the classical drugs. Recently, it was shown that the ACR-23 protein in Caenorhabditis elegans and a homologous protein, MPTL-1 in Haemonchus contortus, are potential targets for AAD action. Both proteins belong to the DEG-3 subfamily of acetylcholine receptors, which are thought to be nematode-specific, and different from those targeted by the imidazothiazoles (e.g. levamisole). Here we provide further evidence that Cel-ACR-23 and Hco-MPTL-1-like subunits are involved in the monepantel-sensitive phenotype. We performed comparative genomics of ligand-gated ion channel genes from several nematodes and subsequently assessed their sensitivity to anthelmintics. The nematode species in the Caenorhabditis genus, equipped with ACR-23/MPTL-1-like receptor subunits, are sensitive to monepantel (EC50<1.25 µM), whereas the related nematodes Pristionchus pacificus and Strongyloides ratti, which lack an ACR-23/MPTL-1 homolog, are insensitive (EC50>43 µM). Genome sequence information has long been used to identify putative targets for therapeutic intervention. We show how comparative genomics can be applied to predict drug sensitivity when molecular targets of a compound are known or suspected. PMID:20838602

  1. Effects of subsurface heterogeneity on large-scale hydrological predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wagener, Thorsten; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-04-01

    Heterogeneity is abundant everywhere across the hydrosphere. It exists in the soil, the vadose zone and the groundwater producing preferential flow and complex threshold behavior. In large-scale hydrological models, subsurface heterogeneity is usually not considered. Instead average or representative values are chosen for each of the simulated grid cells, not incorporating any sub-grid variability. This may lead to unreliable predictions when the models are used for assessing future water resources availability, floods or droughts, or when they are used for recommendations for more sustainable water management. In this study we use a novel, large-scale model that takes into account sub-grid heterogeneity for the simulation of groundwater recharge by using statistical distribution functions. We choose all regions over Europe that are comprised by carbonate rock (~35% of the total area) because the well understood dissolvability of carbonate rocks (karstification) allows for assessing the strength of subsurface heterogeneity. Applying the model with historic data and future climate projections we show that subsurface heterogeneity results (1) in larger present-day groundwater recharge and (2) a greater vulnerability to climate in terms of long-term decrease and hydrological extremes.

  2. Horizons versus singularities in spherically symmetric space-times

    SciTech Connect

    Bronnikov, K. A.; Elizalde, E.; Odintsov, S. D.; Zaslavskii, O. B.

    2008-09-15

    We discuss different kinds of Killing horizons possible in static, spherically symmetric configurations and recently classified as 'usual', 'naked', and 'truly naked' ones depending on the near-horizon behavior of transverse tidal forces acting on an extended body. We obtain the necessary conditions for the metric to be extensible beyond a horizon in terms of an arbitrary radial coordinate and show that all truly naked horizons, as well as many of those previously characterized as naked and even usual ones, do not admit an extension and therefore must be considered as singularities. Some examples are given, showing which kinds of matter are able to create specific space-times with different kinds of horizons, including truly naked ones. Among them are fluids with negative pressure and scalar fields with a particular behavior of the potential. We also discuss horizons and singularities in Kantowski-Sachs spherically symmetric cosmologies and present horizon regularity conditions in terms of an arbitrary time coordinate and proper (synchronous) time. It turns out that horizons of orders 2 and higher occur in infinite proper times in the past or future, but one-way communication with regions beyond such horizons is still possible.

  3. Gravitational anomaly and Hawking radiation near a weakly isolated horizon

    SciTech Connect

    Wu Xiaoning; Huang Chaoguang; Sun Jiarui

    2008-06-15

    Based on the idea of the work by Wilczek and his collaborators, we consider the gravitational anomaly near a weakly isolated horizon. We find that there exists a universal choice of tortoise coordinate for any weakly isolated horizon. Under this coordinate, the leading behavior of a quite arbitrary scalar field near a horizon is a 2-dimensional chiral scalar field. This means we can extend the idea of Wilczek and his collaborators to more general cases and show the relation between gravitational anomaly and Hawking radiation is a universal property of a black hole horizon.

  4. Gravitational anomaly and Hawking radiation near a weakly isolated horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xiaoning; Huang, Chao-Guang; Sun, Jia-Rui

    2008-06-01

    Based on the idea of the work by Wilczek and his collaborators, we consider the gravitational anomaly near a weakly isolated horizon. We find that there exists a universal choice of tortoise coordinate for any weakly isolated horizon. Under this coordinate, the leading behavior of a quite arbitrary scalar field near a horizon is a 2-dimensional chiral scalar field. This means we can extend the idea of Wilczek and his collaborators to more general cases and show the relation between gravitational anomaly and Hawking radiation is a universal property of a black hole horizon.

  5. Into the Kuiper Belt: New Horizons Post-Pluto

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrison Parker, Alex; Spencer, John; Benecchi, Susan; Binzel, Richard; Borncamp, David; Buie, Marc; Fuentes, Cesar; Gwyn, Stephen; Kavelaars, JJ; Noll, Keith; Petit, Jean-Marc; Porter, Simon; Showalter, Mark; Stern, S. Alan; Sterner, Ray; Tholen, David; Verbiscer, Anne; Weaver, Hal; Zangari, Amanda

    2015-11-01

    New Horizons is now beyond Pluto and flying deeper into the Kuiper Belt. In the summer of 2014, a Hubble Space Telescope Large Program identified two candidate Cold Classical Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) that were within reach of New Horizons' remaining fuel budget. Here we present the selection of the Kuiper Belt flyby target for New Horizons' post-Pluto mission, our state of knowledge regarding this target and the potential 2019 flyby, the status of New Horizons' targeting maneuver, and prospects for near-future long-range observations of other KBOs.

  6. Criticality and surface tension in rotating horizon thermodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Devin; Kubizňák, David; Mann, Robert B.

    2016-08-01

    We study a modified horizon thermodynamics and the associated criticality for rotating black hole spacetimes. Namely, we show that under a virtual displacement of the black hole horizon accompanied by an independent variation of the rotation parameter, the radial Einstein equation takes a form of a ‘cohomogeneity two’ horizon first law, δ E=Tδ S+{{Ω }}δ J-σ δ A, where E and J are the horizon energy (an analogue of the Misner–Sharp mass) and the horizon angular momentum, Ω is the horizon angular velocity, A is the horizon area, and σ is the surface tension induced by the matter fields. For fixed angular momentum, the above equation simplifies and the more familiar (cohomogeneity one) horizon first law δ E=Tδ S-Pδ V is obtained, where P is the pressure of matter fields and V is the horizon volume. A universal equation of state is obtained in each case and the corresponding critical behavior is studied.

  7. Use of microcomputer in mapping depth of stratigraphic horizons in National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Payne, Thomas G.

    1982-01-01

    REGIONAL MAPPER is a menu-driven system in the BASIC language for computing and plotting (1) time, depth, and average velocity to geologic horizons, (2) interval time, thickness, and interval velocity of stratigraphic intervals, and (3) subcropping and onlapping intervals at unconformities. The system consists of three programs: FILER, TRAVERSER, and PLOTTER. A control point is a shot point with velocity analysis or a shot point at or near a well with velocity check-shot survey. Reflection time to and code number of seismic horizons are filed by digitizing tablet from record sections. TRAVERSER starts at a point of geologic control and, in traversing to another, parallels seismic events, records loss of horizons by onlap and truncation, and stores reflection time for geologic horizons at traversed shot points. TRAVERSER is basically a phantoming procedure. Permafrost thickness and velocity variations, buried canyons with low-velocity fill, and error in seismically derived velocity cause velocity anomalies that complicate depth mapping. Two depths to the top of the pebble is based shale are computed for each control point. One depth, designated Zs on seismically derived velocity. The other (Zw) is based on interval velocity interpolated linearly between wells and multiplied by interval time (isochron) to give interval thickness. Z w is computed for all geologic horizons by downward summation of interval thickness. Unknown true depth (Z) to the pebble shale may be expressed as Z = Zs + es and Z = Zw + ew where the e terms represent error. Equating the two expressions gives the depth difference D = Zs + Zw = ew + es A plot of D for the top of the pebble shale is readily contourable but smoothing is required to produce a reasonably simple surface. Seismically derived velocity used in computing Zs includes the effect of velocity anomalies but is subject to some large randomly distributed errors resulting in depth errors (es). Well-derived velocity used in computing Zw

  8. Working Memory Capacity Predicts Effects of Methylphenidate on Reversal Learning

    PubMed Central

    van der Schaaf, Marieke E; Fallon, Sean J; ter Huurne, Niels; Buitelaar, Jan; Cools, Roshan

    2013-01-01

    Increased use of stimulant medication, such as methylphenidate, by healthy college students has raised questions about its cognitive-enhancing effects. Methylphenidate acts by increasing extracellular catecholamine levels and is generally accepted to remediate cognitive and reward deficits in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. However, the cognitive-enhancing effects of such ‘smart drugs' in the healthy population are still unclear. Here, we investigated effects of methylphenidate (Ritalin, 20 mg) on reward and punishment learning in healthy students (N=19) in a within-subject, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over design. Results revealed that methylphenidate effects varied both as a function of task demands and as a function of baseline working memory capacity. Specifically, methylphenidate improved reward vs punishment learning in high-working memory subjects, whereas it impaired reward vs punishment learning in low-working memory subjects. These results contribute to our understanding of individual differences in the cognitive-enhancing effects of methylphenidate in the healthy population. Moreover, they highlight the importance of taking into account both inter- and intra-individual differences in dopaminergic drug research. PMID:23612436

  9. Neurophysiological effects of prediction on head reassignment in German compounds.

    PubMed

    Jalbert, Joseph; Roberts, Tyler; Beretta, Alan

    2016-02-10

    Recent research on noun-noun compounds has suggested that the parser may commit to the first noun (N1) as the head and then have to revise that commitment when the second noun (N2) is encountered. However, it remains unclear under what circumstances head commitment at N1 occurs, and whether it involves both semantic and syntactic revisions at N2. In two event-related potential experiments in German, we explored these questions by manipulating gender matches between a determiner and N1/N2 in compounds. In Experiment 1, a determiner-noun match in gender at N1 compared with a mismatch yielded an effect at N2 for the matching condition (increased negativity at 480-550 ms, strongest in the left hemisphere); there was a similar effect for the gender violation at N2. The observed negativity could have been due to either semantic or syntactic head revision, or both. Experiment 2 increased expectations that an N2 was imminent, which attenuated syntactic, but not semantic, effects at N2. We found N400-like effects, often associated with semantic integration, suggesting that, in Experiment 1, the syntactic effects had masked the semantic costs. Taken together, these results support the idea that both semantic and syntactic head commitment and revision occur during compound processing. PMID:26720892

  10. Effect of temperature coupling on ozone depletion prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandra, S.; Butler, D. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    The effects of chlorine perturbations on both the temperature and the ozone distribution in the stratosphere have been studied using a simplified radiative-photochemical model. The model solves the hydrostatic equation for total density in a self-consistent manner as the temperature is changed. Radiative coupling is found to have a significant effect on both the thermal structure and the ozone distribution, particularly in the 35-50-km region. By increasing the ClX mixing ratio by 5.0 ppbv, the temperature in this region is decreased by 5 to 10 K with a slight increase below 30 km. The local ozone depletion around 40 km due to added ClX is smaller compared with the estimate made by keeping the temperature fixed to the ambient condition. However, the integrated effect of radiative coupling is to increase the calculated column ozone depletion by 15% to 25% in this model.

  11. Prediction of Effective Permeability in Porous Media Based on Spontaneous Imbibition Effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jianchao; You, Lijun; Hu, Xiangyun; Wang, Jing; Peng, Ronghua

    2012-07-01

    Permeability is an important parameter for characterizing the transport properties (e.g. heat and mass transfer) of porous media. It is one of the crucial issues that the permeability of porous media is exactly and quickly decided in many fields such as reservoir engineering, groundwater engineering and composite material modeling. Spontaneous imbibition is a fundamental and ubiquitous natural phenomenon extensively existing in a variety of processes. In this paper, the relationships between the height and weight of imbibition versus the time are derived based on Darcy's law, and a simple method for predicting effective permeability of porous media using spontaneous imbibition effect is proposed, including expressions for permeabilities of artificial and natural porous media. The validity of the proposed models is analysed and tested by experimental data.

  12. The effect of realistic antenna geometries on plasma loading predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, P.M.; Baity, F.W.; Batchelor, D.B.; Goulding, R.H.; Hoffman, D.J.; Tolliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Plasma loading resistances for Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) antennas are often calculated with sophisticated plasma models and only rudimentary antenna geometries. This paper presents techniques for modifying loading calculations for cavity antennas to account for such realities as return currents in the antenna sidewalls and backplane, the transmission and reflection properties of the Faraday shield, the end effects due to a finite length antenna, the reduction in phase velocity due to strap interaction with the Faraday shield, and the effect of slots in the cavity sidewalls and dividing septa. 4 refs., 4 figs.

  13. Genomic prediction of growth in pigs based on a model including additive and dominance effects.

    PubMed

    Lopes, M S; Bastiaansen, J W M; Janss, L; Knol, E F; Bovenhuis, H

    2016-06-01

    Independent of whether prediction is based on pedigree or genomic information, the focus of animal breeders has been on additive genetic effects or 'breeding values'. However, when predicting phenotypes rather than breeding values of an animal, models that account for both additive and dominance effects might be more accurate. Our aim with this study was to compare the accuracy of predicting phenotypes using a model that accounts for only additive effects (MA) and a model that accounts for both additive and dominance effects simultaneously (MAD). Lifetime daily gain (DG) was evaluated in three pig populations (1424 Pietrain, 2023 Landrace, and 2157 Large White). Animals were genotyped using the Illumina SNP60K Beadchip and assigned to either a training data set to estimate the genetic parameters and SNP effects, or to a validation data set to assess the prediction accuracy. Models MA and MAD applied random regression on SNP genotypes and were implemented in the program Bayz. The additive heritability of DG across the three populations and the two models was very similar at approximately 0.26. The proportion of phenotypic variance explained by dominance effects ranged from 0.04 (Large White) to 0.11 (Pietrain), indicating that importance of dominance might be breed-specific. Prediction accuracies were higher when predicting phenotypes using total genetic values (sum of breeding values and dominance deviations) from the MAD model compared to using breeding values from both MA and MAD models. The highest increase in accuracy (from 0.195 to 0.222) was observed in the Pietrain, and the lowest in Large White (from 0.354 to 0.359). Predicting phenotypes using total genetic values instead of breeding values in purebred data improved prediction accuracy and reduced the bias of genomic predictions. Additional benefit of the method is expected when applied to predict crossbred phenotypes, where dominance levels are expected to be higher. PMID:26676611

  14. Context-Outcome Associations Underlie Context-Switch Effects after Partial Reinforcement in Human Predictive Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moreno-Fernandez, Maria M.; Abad, Maria J. F.; Ramos-Alvarez, Manuel M.; Rosas, Juan M.

    2011-01-01

    Predictive value for continuously reinforced cues is affected by context changes when they are trained within a context in which a different cue undergoes partial reinforcement. An experiment was conducted with the goal of exploring the mechanisms underlying this context-switch effect. Human participants were trained in a predictive learning…

  15. Dissociating Word Frequency and Predictability Effects in Reading: Evidence from Coregistration of Eye Movements and EEG

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kretzschmar, Franziska; Schlesewsky, Matthias; Staub, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Two very reliable influences on eye fixation durations in reading are word frequency, as measured by corpus counts, and word predictability, as measured by cloze norming. Several studies have reported strictly additive effects of these 2 variables. Predictability also reliably influences the amplitude of the N400 component in event-related…

  16. Generalization Gradients in Human Predictive Learning: Effects of Discrimination Training and within-Subjects Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vervliet, Bram; Iberico, Carlos; Vervoort, Ellen; Baeyens, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Generalization gradients have been investigated widely in animal conditioning experiments, but much less so in human predictive learning tasks. Here, we apply the experimental design of a recent study on conditioned fear generalization in humans (Lissek et al., 2008) to a predictive learning task, and examine the effects of a number of relevant…

  17. A Bayesian Performance Prediction Model for Mathematics Education: A Prototypical Approach for Effective Group Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bekele, Rahel; McPherson, Maggie

    2011-01-01

    This research work presents a Bayesian Performance Prediction Model that was created in order to determine the strength of personality traits in predicting the level of mathematics performance of high school students in Addis Ababa. It is an automated tool that can be used to collect information from students for the purpose of effective group…

  18. Effectiveness of genomic prediction of maize hybrid performance in different breeding populations and environments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date and anthesis-silking interva...

  19. Predicting contrast effects following reliable spectral properties in speech perception.

    PubMed

    Stilp, Christian E; Anderson, Paul W; Winn, Matthew B

    2015-06-01

    Vowel perception is influenced by precursor sounds that are resynthesized to shift frequency regions [Ladefoged and Broadbent (1957). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 29(1), 98-104] or filtered to emphasize narrow [Kiefte and Kluender (2008). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 123(1), 366-376] or broad frequency regions [Watkins (1991). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 90(6), 2942-2955]. Spectral differences between filtered precursors and vowel targets are perceptually enhanced, producing spectral contrast effects (e.g., emphasizing spectral properties of /ɪ/ in the precursor elicited more /ɛ/ responses to an /ɪ/-/ɛ/ vowel continuum, and vice versa). Historically, precursors have been processed by high-gain filters, resulting in prominent stable long-term spectral properties. Perceptual sensitivity to subtler but equally reliable spectral properties is unknown. Here, precursor sentences were processed by filters of variable bandwidths and different gains, then followed by vowel sounds varying from /ɪ/-/ɛ/. Contrast effects were widely observed, including when filters had only 100-Hz bandwidth or +5 dB gain. Average filter power was a good predictor of the magnitudes of contrast effects, revealing a close linear correspondence between the prominence of a reliable spectral property and the size of shifts in perceptual responses. High sensitivity to subtle spectral regularities suggests contrast effects are not limited to high-power filters, and thus may be more pervasive in speech perception than previously thought. PMID:26093434

  20. Can dispersal mode predict corridor effects on plant parasites?

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Lauren, L.; Johnson, Brenda, L.; Brudvig, Lars, A.; Haddad, Nick, M.

    2011-08-01

    Habitat corridors, a common management strategy for increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes, have experimentally validated positive influences on species movement and diversity. However, long-standing concerns that corridors could negatively impact native species by spreading antagonists, such as disease, remain largely untested. Using a large-scale, replicated experiment, we evaluated whether corridors increase the incidence of plant parasites. We found that corridor impacts varied with parasite dispersal mode. Connectivity provided by corridors increased incidence of biotically dispersed parasites (galls on Solidago odora) but not of abiotically dispersed parasites (foliar fungi on S. odora and three Lespedeza spp.). Both biotically and abiotically dispersed parasites responded to edge effects, but the direction of responses varied across species. Although our results require additional tests for generality to other species and landscapes, they suggest that, when establishing conservation corridors, managers should focus on mitigating two potential negative effects: the indirect effects of narrow corridors in creating edges and direct effects of corridors in enhancing connectivity of biotically dispersed parasites.

  1. Timing of food intake predicts weight loss effectiveness

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is emerging literature demonstrating a relationship between the timing of feeding and weight regulation in animals. However, whether the timing of food intake influences the success of a weight-loss diet in humans is unknown. To evaluate the role of food timing in weight-loss effectiveness in ...

  2. Relatively Random: Context Effects on Perceived Randomness and Predicted Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matthews, William J.

    2013-01-01

    This article concerns the effect of context on people's judgments about sequences of chance outcomes. In Experiment 1, participants judged whether sequences were produced by random, mechanical processes (such as a roulette wheel) or skilled human action (such as basketball shots). Sequences with lower alternation rates were judged more likely to…

  3. Medical treatment of renal cancer: new horizons

    PubMed Central

    Greef, Basma; Eisen, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) makes up 2–3% of adult cancers. The introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors in the mid-2000s radically changed the management of RCC. These targeted treatments superseded immunotherapy with interleukin-2 and interferon. The pendulum now appears to be shifting back towards immunotherapy, with the evidence of prolonged overall survival of patients with metastatic RCC on treatment with the anti-programmed cell death 1 ligand monoclonal antibody, nivolumab. Clinical prognostic criteria aid prediction of relapse risk for resected localised disease. Unfortunately, for patients at high risk of relapse, no adjuvant treatment has yet shown benefit, although further trials are yet to report. Clinical prognostic models also have a role in the management of advanced disease; now there is a pressing need for predictive biomarkers to direct therapy. Treatment selection for metastatic disease is currently based on histology, prognostic group and patient preference based on side effect profile. In this article, we review the current medical and surgical management of localised, oligometastatic and advanced RCC, including side effect management and the evidence base for management of poor-risk and non-clear cell disease. We discuss recent results from clinical trials and how these are likely to shape future practice and a renaissance of immunotherapy for renal cell cancer. PMID:27490806

  4. Medical treatment of renal cancer: new horizons.

    PubMed

    Greef, Basma; Eisen, Tim

    2016-08-23

    Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) makes up 2-3% of adult cancers. The introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors in the mid-2000s radically changed the management of RCC. These targeted treatments superseded immunotherapy with interleukin-2 and interferon. The pendulum now appears to be shifting back towards immunotherapy, with the evidence of prolonged overall survival of patients with metastatic RCC on treatment with the anti-programmed cell death 1 ligand monoclonal antibody, nivolumab. Clinical prognostic criteria aid prediction of relapse risk for resected localised disease. Unfortunately, for patients at high risk of relapse, no adjuvant treatment has yet shown benefit, although further trials are yet to report. Clinical prognostic models also have a role in the management of advanced disease; now there is a pressing need for predictive biomarkers to direct therapy. Treatment selection for metastatic disease is currently based on histology, prognostic group and patient preference based on side effect profile. In this article, we review the current medical and surgical management of localised, oligometastatic and advanced RCC, including side effect management and the evidence base for management of poor-risk and non-clear cell disease. We discuss recent results from clinical trials and how these are likely to shape future practice and a renaissance of immunotherapy for renal cell cancer. PMID:27490806

  5. Environmental Conditions in Northern Gulf of Mexico Estuaries: Before and After the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting an environmental assessment to determine the ecological effects of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), baseline environmental data is essential to establish ecosystem condition prior to the incident. EPA’s National Coastal Assessment...

  6. The Event Horizon Telescope: exploring strong gravity and accretion physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricarte, Angelo; Dexter, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a global sub-millimetre wavelength very long baseline interferometry array, is now resolving the innermost regions around the supermassive black holes Sgr A* and M87. Using black hole images from both simple geometric models and relativistic magnetohydrodynamical accretion flow simulations, we perform a variety of experiments to assess the promise of the EHT for studying strong gravity and accretion physics during the stages of its development. We find that (1) the addition of the Large Millimeter Telescope (LMT) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array along with upgraded instrumentation in the `Complete' stage of the EHT allow detection of the photon ring, a signature of Kerr strong gravity, for predicted values of its total flux; (2) the inclusion of coherently averaged closure phases in our analysis dramatically improves the precision of even the current array, allowing (3) significantly tighter constraints on plausible accretion models and (4) detections of structural variability at the levels predicted by the models. While observations at 345 GHz circumvent problems due to interstellar electron scattering in line of sight to the galactic centre, short baselines provided by CARMA (Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy) and/or the LMT could be required in order to constrain the overall shape of the accretion flow. Given the systematic uncertainties in the underlying models, using the full complement of two observing frequencies (230 and 345 GHz) and sources (Sgr A* and M87) may be critical for achieving transformative science with the EHT experiment.

  7. Comparison of measured and predicted flight effects on high-bypass coaxial jet exhaust noise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stone, J. R.

    1983-01-01

    A semi-empirical model for predicting the noise generated by conventional-velocity profile coaxial jets is compared with full scale flight data and model scale simulated flight data for high bypass nozzles. The prediction model was shown to agree with small scale static data for primary jet velocities from 215 to 795 m/s for a wide range of area, temperature, and velocity ratios between streams. However, there were insufficient model nozzle, simulated flight data available at that time to permit validation of the flight effects prediction. The comparisons presented demonstrate that the prediction method is also valid in flight.

  8. Myopic social prediction and the solo comparison effect.

    PubMed

    Moore, Don A; Kim, Tai Gyu

    2003-12-01

    Four experiments explored the psychological processes by which people make comparative social judgments. Each participant chose how much money to wager on beating an opponent on either a difficult or a simple trivia quiz. Quiz difficulty did not influence the average person's probability of winning, yet participants bet more on a simple quiz than on a difficult quiz in the first 3 experiments. The results suggest that this effect results from a tendency to attend more closely to a focal actor than to others. Experiment 4 directly manipulated focusing; when participants were led to focus on the opponent instead of themselves, the effect was reversed. The discussion relates the results to other literatures including overly optimistic self-evaluation, false consensus, overconfidence, and social comparison. PMID:14674818

  9. Pharmacogenetics and Antipsychotics: Therapeutic Efficacy and Side Effects Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jian-Ping; Malhotra, Anil K.

    2010-01-01

    Importance of the field Antipsychotic drug is the mainstay of treatment for schizophrenia, and there are large inter-individual differences is clinical response and side effects. Pharmacogenetics provides a valuable tool to fulfill the promise of personalized medicine by tailoring treatment based on one's genetic markers. Areas covered in this review This article reviews the pharmacogenetic literature from early 1990s to 2010, focusing on two aspects of drug action: pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Genetic variants in the neurotransmitter receptors including dopamine and serotonin, and metabolic pathways of drugs including CYP2D6 and COMT, were discussed in association with clinical drug response and side effects. What the reader will gain Readers are expected to learn the up-to-date evidence in pharmacogenetic research, and to gain familiarity to the issues and challenges facing the field. Take home message Pharmacogenetic research of antipsychotic drugs is both promising and challenging. There is consistent evidence that some genetic variants can affect clinical response and side effects. However, more studies that are designed specifically to test pharmacogenetic hypotheses are clearly needed to advance the field. PMID:21162693

  10. Effects of explicit knowledge and predictability on auditory distraction and target performance.

    PubMed

    Max, Caroline; Widmann, Andreas; Schröger, Erich; Sussman, Elyse

    2015-11-01

    This study tested effects of task requirements and knowledge on auditory distraction effects. This was done by comparing the response to a pitch change (an irrelevant, distracting tone feature) that occurred predictably in a tone sequence (every 5th tone) under different task conditions. The same regular sound sequence was presented with task conditions varying in what information the participant was given about the predictability of the pitch change, and when this information was relevant for the task to be performed. In all conditions, participants performed a tone duration judgment task. Behavioral and event-related brain potential (ERP) measures were obtained to measure distraction effects and deviance detection. Predictable deviants produced behavioral distraction effects in all conditions. However, the P3a amplitude evoked by the predictable pitch change was largest when participants were uninformed about the regular structure of the sound sequence, showing an effect of knowledge on involuntary orienting of attention. In contrast, the mismatch negativity (MMN) component was only modulated when the regularity was relevant for the task and not by stimulus predictability itself. P3a and behavioral indices of distraction were not fully concordant. Overall, our results show differential effects of knowledge and predictability on auditory distraction effects indexed by neurophysiological (P3a) and behavioral measures. PMID:26386396

  11. Effectiveness of Link Prediction for Face-to-Face Behavioral Networks

    PubMed Central

    Tsugawa, Sho; Ohsaki, Hiroyuki

    2013-01-01

    Research on link prediction for social networks has been actively pursued. In link prediction for a given social network obtained from time-windowed observation, new link formation in the network is predicted from the topology of the obtained network. In contrast, recent advances in sensing technology have made it possible to obtain face-to-face behavioral networks, which are social networks representing face-to-face interactions among people. However, the effectiveness of link prediction techniques for face-to-face behavioral networks has not yet been explored in depth. To clarify this point, here we investigate the accuracy of conventional link prediction techniques for networks obtained from the history of face-to-face interactions among participants at an academic conference. Our findings were (1) that conventional link prediction techniques predict new link formation with a precision of 0.30–0.45 and a recall of 0.10–0.20, (2) that prolonged observation of social networks often degrades the prediction accuracy, (3) that the proposed decaying weight method leads to higher prediction accuracy than can be achieved by observing all records of communication and simply using them unmodified, and (4) that the prediction accuracy for face-to-face behavioral networks is relatively high compared to that for non-social networks, but not as high as for other types of social networks. PMID:24339956

  12. Effective thermal conductivity method for predicting spent nuclear fuel cladding temperatures in a dry fill gas

    SciTech Connect

    Bahney, Robert

    1997-12-19

    This paper summarizes the development of a reliable methodology for the prediction of peak spent nuclear fuel cladding temperature within the waste disposal package. The effective thermal conductivity method replaces other older methodologies.

  13. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PHARMACOKINETIC PARAMETERS FOR PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research involves the development and improvement of pharmacokinetic data for predicting the effects of exposure to pyrethroid pesticides. Pharmacokinetics address the exposure-dose relationship in an organism, and resulting data are useful for making extrapolations between...

  14. Predictive modeling of synergistic effects in nanoscale ion track formation

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zarkadoula, Eva; Pakarinen, Olli H.; Xue, Haizhou; Zhang, Yanwen; Weber, William J.

    2015-08-05

    Molecular dynamics techniques and the inelastic thermal spike model are used to study the coupled effects of inelastic energy loss due to 21 MeV Ni ion irradiation and pre-existing defects in SrTiO3. We determine the dependence on pre-existing defect concentration of nanoscale track formation occurring from the synergy between the inelastic energy loss and the pre-existing atomic defects. We show that the nanoscale ion tracks’ size can be controlled by the concentration of pre-existing disorder. This work identifies a major gap in fundamental understanding concerning the role played by defects in electronic energy dissipation and electron–lattice coupling.

  15. Predicted rocket and shuttle effects on stratospheric ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harwood, Robert S.; Karol, Igor L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Qiu, Lian-Xiong; Prather, Michael J.; Pyle, John A.

    1991-01-01

    The major chemical effluents of either solid- or liquid-fueled rockets that can potentially perturb stratospheric ozone include chlorine compounds (HCl), nitrogen compounds (NO(x)), and hydrogen compounds (H2 and H2O). Radicals (Cl, ClO, H, OH, HO2, NO, and NO2) formed directly or indirectly from rocket exhaust can cause the catalytic destruction of ozone. Other exhaust compounds that could presumably lead to ozone destruction either by direct reaction with ozone or by providing a surface for heterogeneous processes include the particulates Al2O3, ice, and soot. These topics are discussed in terms of the possible effects of rocket exhausts on stratospheric ozone.

  16. Effects of urban microcellular environments on ray-tracing-based coverage predictions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhongyu; Guo, Lixin; Guan, Xiaowei; Sun, Jiejing

    2016-09-01

    The ray-tracing (RT) algorithm, which is based on geometrical optics and the uniform theory of diffraction, has become a typical deterministic approach of studying wave-propagation characteristics. Under urban microcellular environments, the RT method highly depends on detailed environmental information. The aim of this paper is to provide help in selecting the appropriate level of accuracy required in building databases to achieve good tradeoffs between database costs and prediction accuracy. After familiarization with the operating procedures of the RT-based prediction model, this study focuses on the effect of errors in environmental information on prediction results. The environmental information consists of two parts, namely, geometric and electrical parameters. The geometric information can be obtained from a digital map of a city. To study the effects of inaccuracies in geometry information (building layout) on RT-based coverage prediction, two different artificial erroneous maps are generated based on the original digital map, and systematic analysis is performed by comparing the predictions with the erroneous maps and measurements or the predictions with the original digital map. To make the conclusion more persuasive, the influence of random errors on RMS delay spread results is investigated. Furthermore, given the electrical parameters' effect on the accuracy of the predicted results of the RT model, the dielectric constant and conductivity of building materials are set with different values. The path loss and RMS delay spread under the same circumstances are simulated by the RT prediction model. PMID:27607495

  17. Modelling hepatitis C therapy—predicting effects of treatment

    SciTech Connect

    Perelson, Alan S.; Guedj, Jeremie

    2015-06-30

    Mathematically modelling changes in HCV RNA levels measured in patients who receive antiviral therapy has yielded many insights into the pathogenesis and effects of treatment on the virus. By determining how rapidly HCV is cleared when viral replication is interrupted by a therapy, one can deduce how rapidly the virus is produced in patients before treatment. This knowledge, coupled with estimates of the HCV mutation rate, enables one to estimate the frequency with which drug resistant variants arise. Modelling HCV also permits the deduction of the effectiveness of an antiviral agent at blocking HCV replication from the magnitude of the initial viral decline. One can also estimate the lifespan of an HCV-infected cell from the slope of the subsequent viral decline and determine the duration of therapy needed to cure infection. The original understanding of HCV RNA decline under interferon-based therapies obtained by modelling needed to be revised in order to interpret the HCV RNA decline kinetics seen when using direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In addition, there also exist unresolved issues involving understanding therapies with combinations of DAAs, such as the presence of detectable HCV RNA at the end of therapy in patients who nonetheless have a sustained virologic response.

  18. Modelling hepatitis C therapy—predicting effects of treatment

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Perelson, Alan S.; Guedj, Jeremie

    2015-06-30

    Mathematically modelling changes in HCV RNA levels measured in patients who receive antiviral therapy has yielded many insights into the pathogenesis and effects of treatment on the virus. By determining how rapidly HCV is cleared when viral replication is interrupted by a therapy, one can deduce how rapidly the virus is produced in patients before treatment. This knowledge, coupled with estimates of the HCV mutation rate, enables one to estimate the frequency with which drug resistant variants arise. Modelling HCV also permits the deduction of the effectiveness of an antiviral agent at blocking HCV replication from the magnitude of themore » initial viral decline. One can also estimate the lifespan of an HCV-infected cell from the slope of the subsequent viral decline and determine the duration of therapy needed to cure infection. The original understanding of HCV RNA decline under interferon-based therapies obtained by modelling needed to be revised in order to interpret the HCV RNA decline kinetics seen when using direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In addition, there also exist unresolved issues involving understanding therapies with combinations of DAAs, such as the presence of detectable HCV RNA at the end of therapy in patients who nonetheless have a sustained virologic response.« less

  19. Modelling hepatitis C therapy—predicting effects of treatment

    PubMed Central

    Perelson, Alan S.; Guedj, Jeremie

    2015-01-01

    Mathematically modelling HCV RNA changes measured in patients who receive antiviral therapy has yielded many insights into the pathogenesis and effects of treatment on the virus. By determining how rapidly HCV is cleared when viral replication is interrupted by a therapy, one can deduce how rapidly the virus is produced in patients before treatment. This knowledge, coupled with estimates of the HCV mutation rate, enables one to estimate the frequency with which drug resistant variants arise. Modelling HCV also permits the deduction of antiviral agent effectiveness at blocking HCV replication from the magnitude of the initial viral decline. One can also estimate the lifespan of an HCV infected cell from the slope of the subsequent viral decline and, determine the duration of therapy needed to cure infection. Our understanding of HCV RNA decline under IFN-based therapies needs to be revised in order to understand the HCV RNA decline kinetics seen when using direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In this Review, we also discuss the unresolved issues involving understanding therapies with combinations of DAAs, such as whether a sustained virological response necessarily involves elimination of all infected cells PMID:26122475

  20. Black Hole Observations - Towards the Event Horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britzen, Silke

    Black Holes are probably the most elusive solutions of Einstein's theory of General Relativity. Despite numerous observations of the direct galactic environment and indirect influence of astrophysical black holes (e.g. jets, variable emission across the wavelength spectrum, feedback processes, etc.) -- a direct proof of their existence is still lacking. This article highlights some aspects deduced from many observations and concentrates on the experimental results with regard to black holes with masses from millions to billions of solar masses. The focus will be on the challenges and remaining questions. The Event Horizon Telescopce (EHT) project to image the photon sphere of Sgr A* and its potential is briefly sketched. This instrumental approach shall lead to highest resolution observations of the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way (Sgr A*).

  1. Horizon complementarity in elliptic de Sitter space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackl, Lucas; Neiman, Yasha

    2015-02-01

    We study a quantum field in elliptic de Sitter space dS4/Z2—the spacetime obtained from identifying antipodal points in dS4. We find that the operator algebra and Hilbert space cannot be defined for the entire space, but only for observable causal patches. This makes the system into an explicit realization of the horizon complementarity principle. In the absence of a global quantum theory, we propose a recipe for translating operators and states between observers. This translation involves information loss, in accordance with the fact that two observers see different patches of the spacetime. As a check, we recover the thermal state at the de Sitter temperature as a state that appears the same to all observers. This thermal state arises from the same functional that, in ordinary dS4, describes the Bunch-Davies vacuum.

  2. Stochastic receding horizon control: application to an octopedal robot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Shridhar K.; Tanner, Herbert G.

    2013-06-01

    Miniature autonomous systems are being developed under ARL's Micro Autonomous Systems and Technology (MAST). These systems can only be fitted with a small-size processor, and their motion behavior is inherently uncertain due to manufacturing and platform-ground interactions. One way to capture this uncertainty is through a stochastic model. This paper deals with stochastic motion control design and implementation for MAST- specific eight-legged miniature crawling robots, which have been kinematically modeled as systems exhibiting the behavior of a Dubin's car with stochastic noise. The control design takes the form of stochastic receding horizon control, and is implemented on a Gumstix Overo Fire COM with 720 MHz processor and 512 MB RAM, weighing 5.5 g. The experimental results show the effectiveness of this control law for miniature autonomous systems perturbed by stochastic noise.

  3. Attitude Determination by Using Horizon and Sun Sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Allen K. H.; French, Larry A.

    1993-01-01

    The Pointing and Alignment Workstation (PAWS) developed by Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE) has successfully supported the first and second Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1, 2) spacelab missions for NASA. The primary PAWS objective was to provide realtime pointing information to instruments whose line of-sight is dependent on Shuttle attitude and to study/quantify the causes and effects of Shuttle and payload pointing errors. In addition to Shuttle IMU attitude information, PAWS used atmospheric science sensors data to determine the spacecraft attitude. PAWS successfully achieved these goals by acquiring and processing data during the ATLAS 1, 2 mission. This paper presents the attitude determination algorithm real time processing, and results of post mission analysis. The findings of this study include the quality of the horizon sensor and IMU measurements as well as accuracy of attitude processor algorithm.

  4. Tracking the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Modeling Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yonggang; Weisberg, Robert H.; Hu, Chuanmin; Zheng, Lianyuan

    2011-02-01

    The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was caused by a drilling rig explosion on 20 April 2010 that killed 11 people. It was the largest oil spill in U.S. history and presented an unprecedented threat to Gulf of Mexico marine resources. Although oil gushing to the surface diminished after the well was capped, on 15 July 2010, much remains to be known about the oil and the dispersants beneath the surface, including their trajectories and effects on marine life. A system for tracking the oil, both at the surface and at depth, was needed for mitigation efforts and ship survey guidance. Such a system was implemented immediately after the spill by marshaling numerical model and satellite remote sensing resources available from existing coastal ocean observing activities [e.g., Weisberg et al., 2009]. Analyzing this system's various strengths and weaknesses can help further improve similar systems designed for other emergency responses.

  5. Opportunity Spies 'Endurance' on the Horizon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    This image taken by the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's panoramic camera shows the eastern plains that stretch beyond the small crater where the rover landed. In the distance, the rim of a larger crater dubbed 'Endurance' can be seen.

    This color mosaic was taken on the 32nd martian day, or sol, of the rover's mission and spans 20 degrees of the horizon. It was taken while Opportunity was parked at the north end of the outcrop, in front of the rock region dubbed 'El Capitan' and facing east.

    The features seen at the horizon are the near and far rims of 'Endurance,' the largest crater within about 6 kilometers (4 miles) of the lander. Using orbital data from the Mars Orbiter Camera on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft, scientists estimated the crater to be 160 meters (175 yards) in diameter, and about 720 meters (half a mile) away from the lander.

    The highest point visible on 'Endurance' is the highest point on the far wall of the crater; the sun is illuminating the inside of the far wall.

    Between the location where the image was taken at 'El Capitan' and 'Endurance' are the flat, smooth Meridiani plains, which scientists believe are blanketed in the iron-bearing mineral called hematite. The dark horizontal feature near the bottom of the picture is a small, five-meter (16-feet) crater, only 50 meters (164 feet) from Opportunity's present position. When the rover leaves the crater some 2 to 3 weeks from now, 'Endurance' is one of several potential destinations.

  6. Air-shower spectroscopy at horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fargion, D.

    2006-07-01

    Downward cosmic rays are mostly revealed on the ground by their air-showers diluted and filtered secondary μμ traces and/or by their (Cerenkov - Fluorescent) light because of the high altitude numerous and luminous electromagnetic ee,γ shower component. Horizontal and upward air-showers are even more suppressed by deeper atmosphere opacity and by the Earth shadows. In such noise-free horizontal and upward directions rare Ultra High Cosmic rays and rarer neutrino induced air-showers may shine, mostly mediated by resonant PeV ν¯+e→W interactions in air or by higher energy tau air-showers originated by ν skimming the Earth. At high altitude (mountains, planes, balloons) the air density is so rarefied that nearly all common air-showers might be observed at their maximal growth at a tuned altitude and direction. The arrival angle samples different distances and the corresponding most probable primary cosmic ray energy. The larger and larger distances (between observer and C.R. interaction) make wider and wider the shower area and it enlarges the probability of being observed (up to three orders of magnitude more than vertical showers); the observation of a maximal electromagnetic shower development may amplify the signal by two three orders of magnitude (with respect to a suppressed shower at sea level); the peculiar altitude angle range (ten twenty km height and ≃80 90 zenith angle) may disentangle at best the primary cosmic ray energy and composition. Even from existing mountain observatories the up-going air-showers may trace, above the horizons, PeV EeV high energy cosmic rays and, below the horizons, PeV EeV neutrino astronomy: their early signals may be captured in already existing gamma telescopes such as Magic at Canarie, while facing the Earth edges during (useless) cloudy nights.

  7. THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE POTENTIAL REPOSITORY HORIZON

    SciTech Connect

    J.E. BEAN

    2004-09-27

    The primary purpose of this report is to assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of bulk thermal conductivity in the host horizon for the repository at Yucca Mountain. More specifically, the lithostratigraphic units studied are located within the Topopah Spring Tuff (Tpt) and consist of the upper lithophysal zone (Tptpul), the middle nonlithophysal zone (Tptpmn), the lower lithophysal zone (Tptpll), and the lower nonlithophysal zone (Tptpln). Design plans indicate that approximately 81 percent of the repository will be excavated in the Tptpll, approximately 12 percent in the Tptpmn, and the remainder in the Tptul and Tptpln (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168370]). This report provides three-dimensional geostatistical estimates of the bulk thermal conductivity for the four stratigraphic layers of the repository horizon. The three-dimensional geostatistical estimates of matrix and lithophysal porosity, dry bulk density, and matrix thermal conductivity are also provided. This report provides input to various models and calculations that simulate heat transport through the rock mass. These models include the ''Drift Degradation Analysis, Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model, Ventilation Model and Analysis Report, Igneous Intrusion Impacts on Waste Packages and Waste Forms, Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'', and ''Drift Scale THM Model''. These models directly or indirectly provide input to the total system performance assessment (TSPA). The main distinguishing characteristic among the lithophysal and nonlithophysal units is the percentage of large-scale (centimeters-meters) voids within the rock. The Tptpul and Tptpll, as their names suggest, have a higher percentage of lithophysae than the Tptpmn and the Tptpln. Understanding the influence of the lithophysae is of great importance to understanding bulk thermal conductivity.

  8. SPACER: server for predicting allosteric communication and effects of regulation

    PubMed Central

    Goncearenco, Alexander; Mitternacht, Simon; Yong, Taipang; Eisenhaber, Birgit; Eisenhaber, Frank; Berezovsky, Igor N.

    2013-01-01

    The SPACER server provides an interactive framework for exploring allosteric communication in proteins with different sizes, degrees of oligomerization and function. SPACER uses recently developed theoretical concepts based on the thermodynamic view of allostery. It proposes easily tractable and meaningful measures that allow users to analyze the effect of ligand binding on the intrinsic protein dynamics. The server shows potential allosteric sites and allows users to explore communication between the regulatory and functional sites. It is possible to explore, for instance, potential effector binding sites in a given structure as targets for allosteric drugs. As input, the server only requires a single structure. The server is freely available at http://allostery.bii.a-star.edu.sg/. PMID:23737445

  9. Predictive modeling of synergistic effects in nanoscale ion track formation

    SciTech Connect

    Zarkadoula, Eva; Pakarinen, Olli H.; Xue, Haizhou; Zhang, Yanwen; Weber, William J.

    2015-08-05

    Molecular dynamics techniques and the inelastic thermal spike model are used to study the coupled effects of inelastic energy loss due to 21 MeV Ni ion irradiation and pre-existing defects in SrTiO3. We determine the dependence on pre-existing defect concentration of nanoscale track formation occurring from the synergy between the inelastic energy loss and the pre-existing atomic defects. We show that the nanoscale ion tracks’ size can be controlled by the concentration of pre-existing disorder. This work identifies a major gap in fundamental understanding concerning the role played by defects in electronic energy dissipation and electron–lattice coupling.

  10. Prediction of effects of hydraulic fracturing using reservoir and well flow simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Mineyuki Hanano; Tayuki Kondo

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a method to predict and evaluate effects of hydraulic fracturing jobs by using reservoir and well flow numerical simulation. The concept of the method i5 that steam production rate at the operating well head pressure is predicted with different fracture conditions which would be attained by the hydraulic fracturing jobs. Then, the effects of the hydraulic fracturing is evaluated by comparing the predicted steam production rate and that before the hydraulic fracturing. This course of analysis will suggest how large fracture should be created by the fracturing job to attain large enough increase in steam production at the operating condition and the best scheme of the hydraulic fracturing job.

  11. Effect of prediction on the self-organization of pedestrian counter flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyang; Ma, Jian; Zhao, Hui; Qin, Yong; Jia, Limin

    2012-08-01

    Pedestrians may predict the behavior of others and then adjust their movement accordingly to avoid potential conflicts in advance. Motivated by this fact, we propose a predictive control theory-based pedestrian counter flow model, which describes the predictive mechanism underlying pedestrian self-organization phenomena. In this model, a pedestrian will make in-advance-avoid behavior based on the estimation of future moving gain within a given predictive length to reduce potential conflicts. The future gain in the present model is affected by three factors, i.e. the predictive length, the smooth degree of entrance and the influential area of coming pedestrians. Simulation results of the model show that increasing predictive length has a remarkable effect on reducing conflicts, improving pedestrian velocity, smoothing pedestrian movement and stabilizing the self-organized lanes. When enlarging the influential area of coming pedestrians, pedestrians tend to aggregate to the formed self-organized lanes, which makes the lanes wider and the lane number reduced. Interestingly, moderate enlargement (of the influential area) will reduce conflicts significantly, while excessive enlargement will lead to an increase in conflicts. We also discuss the predictive effect toward the smooth degree of entrance. When there are some formed self-organized lanes in the system, the effect is significant, and it will make the lanes more regular and stable, while when the existing lanes are unstable, the effect has little impact on the system.

  12. Micromechanical Prediction of the Effective Behavior of Fully Coupled Electro-Magneto-Thermo-Elastic Multiphase Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aboudi, Jacob

    2000-01-01

    The micromechanical generalized method of cells model is employed for the prediction of the effective moduli of electro-magneto-thermo-elastic composites. These include the effective elastic, piezoelectric, piezomagnetic, dielectric, magnetic permeability, electromagnetic coupling moduli, as well as the effective thermal expansion coefficients and the associated pyroelectric and pyromagnetic constants. Results are given for fibrous and periodically bilaminated composites.

  13. New Horizons Risk Communication Strategy, Planning, Implementation, and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dawson, Sandra A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the risk communication goals, strategy, planning process and product development for the New Horizons mission, including lessons from the Cassini mission that were applied in that effort, and presents lessons learned from the New Horizons effort that could be applicable to future missions.

  14. The Horizon Report: 2010 Australia-New Zealand Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Smith, R.; Levine, A.; Haywood, K.

    2010-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This volume, the "2010 Horizon…

  15. The NMC Horizon Report: 2013 Higher Education Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Cummins, M.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.; Ludgate, H.

    2013-01-01

    The internationally recognized "NMC Horizon Report" series and regional "NMC Technology Outlooks" are part of the NMC Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years in education around the globe.…

  16. The Horizon Report: 2009 Australia-New Zealand Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Levine, A.; Smith, R.; Smythe, T.; Stone, S.

    2009-01-01

    The New Media Consortium's Horizon Project is an ongoing research project that aims to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, or creative inquiry within education around the globe over a five-year time period. The project's central products are the "Horizon Reports", an annual series of…

  17. The NMC Horizon Report: 2013 K-12 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Cummins, M.; Estrada V.; Freeman, A.; Ludgate, H.

    2013-01-01

    "The NMC Horizon Report" series is the most visible outcome of the New Media Consortium (NMC) Horizon Project, an ongoing research effort established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, research, or creative expression within education around the globe. This…

  18. The NMC Horizon Report: 2012 Higher Education Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams, S.; Cummins, M.

    2012-01-01

    The internationally recognized "NMC Horizon Report" series and regional "NMC Technology Outlooks" are part of the NMC Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming five years in education around the globe. This volume, the "NMC…

  19. A Fusion of Horizons: Students' Encounters with "Will and Wave"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myers, James L.

    2006-01-01

    In a case study, I applied philosophical hermeneutic principles in an advanced level EFL writing class in Taiwan. A "fusion of horizons" occurs at the junction of two intertwined interpretations: one from our socio-historical tradition and the other from our experience of novel phenomena. I explored students' hermeneutic horizons in relation to…

  20. The NMC Horizon Report: 2011 K-12 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams, S.; Haywood, K.

    2011-01-01

    "The NMC Horizon Report" series is the most visible outcome of the New Media Consortium. (NMC) Horizon Project, an ongoing research effort established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, research, or creative expression within education around the globe. This volume, "The…

  1. NEW JERSEY APPROACH TO OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING BRIDGE, NOTE DISTANT HORIZON ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    NEW JERSEY APPROACH TO OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING BRIDGE, NOTE DISTANT HORIZON NEW YORK SKYLINE AND ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HORIZON THE TWIN TOWERS OF THE VERRAZANO-NARROWS BRIDGE - Outerbridge Crossing Bridge, Spanning Arthur Kill from New Jersey to Staten Island, Staten Island (subdivision), Richmond County, NY

  2. The NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Higher Education Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The "NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Higher Education Edition" is a collaborative effort between the New Media Consortium (NMC) and the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative (ELI). This 12th edition describes annual findings from the NMC Horizon Project, an ongoing research project designed to identify and describe emerging technologies likely to have…

  3. The NMC Horizon Report: 2014 K-12 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2014-01-01

    "The NMC Horizon Report" series is the most visible outcome of the New Media Consortium (NMC) Horizon Project, an ongoing research effort established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact on teaching, learning, research, or creative expression within every sector of education in some 65…

  4. Horizon wave function for single localized particles: GUP and quantum black-hole decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casadio, Roberto; Scardigli, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    A localized particle in Quantum Mechanics is described by a wave packet in position space, regardless of its energy. However, from the point of view of General Relativity, if the particle's energy density exceeds a certain threshold, it should be a black hole. To combine these two pictures, we introduce a horizon wave function determined by the particle wave function in position space, which eventually yields the probability that the particle is a black hole. The existence of a minimum mass for black holes naturally follows, albeit not in the form of a sharp value around the Planck scale, but rather like a vanishing probability that a particle much lighter than the Planck mass may be a black hole. We also show that our construction entails an effective generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), simply obtained by adding the uncertainties coming from the two wave functions associated with a particle. Finally, the decay of microscopic (quantum) black holes is also described in agreement with what the GUP predicts.

  5. Fluctuations in horizon-fluid lead to negative bulk viscosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Swastik; Shankaranarayanan, S.

    2016-03-01

    Einstein equations projected on to a black-hole horizon give rise to Navier-Stokes equations. Horizon-fluids typically possess unusual features like negative bulk viscosity, and it is not clear whether a statistical-mechanical description exists for such fluids. In this work, we provide an explicit derivation of the Bulk viscosity of the horizon-fluid based on the theory of fluctuations à la Kubo. The main advantage of our approach is that our analysis remains for the most part independent of the details of the underlying microscopic theory and hence the conclusions reached here are model independent. We show that the coefficient of bulk viscosity for the horizon-fluid matches exactly with the value found from the equations of motion for the horizon-fluid.

  6. Observations of the Geometry of Horizon-Based Optical Navigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christian, John; Robinson, Shane

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Orion Project has sparked a renewed interest in horizon-based optical navigation(OPNAV) techniques for spacecraft in the Earth-Moon system. Some approaches have begun to explore the geometry of horizon-based OPNAV and exploit the fact that it is a conic section problem. Therefore, the present paper focuses more deeply on understanding and leveraging the various geometric interpretations of horizon-based OPNAV. These results provide valuable insight into the fundamental workings of OPNAV solution methods, their convergence properties, and associated estimate covariance. Most importantly, the geometry and transformations uncovered in this paper lead to a simple and non-iterative solution to the generic horizon-based OPNAV problem. This represents a significant theoretical advancement over existing methods. Thus, we find that a clear understanding of geometric relationships is central to the prudent design, use, and operation of horizon-based OPNAV techniques.

  7. Novel approach for predicting the joint effects based on the enzyme-catalyzed kinetics.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Min; Yao, Zhifeng; Lin, Zhifen; Fang, Shuxia; Song, Chunlei; Liu, Ying

    2016-04-15

    Organisms are exposed to mixtures of multiple contaminants and it is necessary to build prediction models for the joint effects, considering the high expense and the complexity of the traditional toxicity testing and the flood occurrence of environmental chemical pollutants. In this study, a new method for predicting the joint effects was developed and corresponding prediction models were constructed based on the kinetic models of enzyme-catalyzed reactions. While, we utilized Vibrio fischeri, Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis as model organisms and determined the chronic toxicity of the binary mixtures of sulfonamides (SAs) and sulfonamide potentiators (SAPs) (SA+SAP), the mixtures of two kinds of sulfonamides (SA+SA) and the binary mixtures of sulfonamide potentiators (SAPs) and tetracyclines (TCs) (SAP+TC) respectively. Finally, corresponding mixture toxicity data was utilized to fit and verify the prediction models for different joint effects. PMID:26826939

  8. Two-stage prediction of the effects of imidazolium and pyridinium ionic liquid mixtures on luciferase.

    PubMed

    Ge, Hui-Lin; Liu, Shu-Shen; Su, Bing-Xia; Zhu, Xiang-Wei

    2014-01-01

    The predicted toxicity of mixtures of imidazolium and pyridinium ionic liquids (ILs) in the ratios of their EC50, EC10, and NOEC (no observed effect concentration) were compared to the observed toxicity of these mixtures on luciferase. The toxicities of EC50 ratio mixture can be effectively predicted by two-stage prediction (TSP) method, but were overestimated by the concentration addition (CA) model and underestimated by the independent action (IA) model. The toxicities of EC10 ratio mixtures can be basically predicted by TSP and CA, but were underestimated by IA. The toxicities of NOEC ratio mixtures can be predicted by TSP and CA in a certain concentration range, but were underestimated by IA. Our results support the use of TSP as a default approach for predicting the combined effect of different types of ILs at the molecular level. In addition, mixtures of ILs mixed at NOEC and EC10 could cause significant effects of 64.1% and 97.7%, respectively. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the combined effects in mixture risk assessment. PMID:24858273

  9. Unconscious attention modulates the silencing effect of top-down predictions.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xu; Ran, Guangming; Zhang, Qi; Hu, Tianqiang

    2015-07-01

    The brain is considered to be proactive in that it continuously generates predictions about external environment stimuli. Recent Bayesian models of perception have demonstrated that prediction and attention operate synergistically to optimize stimulus processing. However, the relation between prediction and unconscious attention remains unclear given the relative neglect of unconscious attention in scholarly literatures. To investigate this issue, twenty participants (12 women) performed an orientation identification task in which a circular grating appeared either in the left or in the right visual field in a single 30-40min session, during which 64-channel EEG data were acquired. Behavioral results showed an unconscious-attended effect and a facilitated effect. Importantly, prediction-related P1 and N1 silencing effects were observed in the unconscious-attended condition, probably reflecting that unconscious attention improves the precision of top-down predictions at an early stage of processing, thereby increasing the synaptic gain of predictor neurons. Moreover, unlike the early ERP components, P3 revealed a reversed pattern of results, which displayed a silencing effect of prediction only in the unattended condition, suggesting that the influence of unconscious attention on the silencing effect may change over time. PMID:25841210

  10. Genesis of pedons with discontinuous argillic horizons in the Holocene loess mantle of the southern Pampean landscape, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanco, M. del C.; Stoops, G.

    2007-01-01

    Soil development in the plain landscape of the southern Argentinean Pampa is related to pulses of aeolian accretion of calcareous loess during the Holocene epoch. Such plain relief is associated with landform stability that favors pedogenesis. In some sectors of the Holocene loess mantle, detailed soil surveys show a great variability of soil morphology in short distances (<7 m), such that pedons with Bt horizon (Ap-Bt-C-2Ckm) coexist with pedons with an AC horizon (Ap-AC-C-2Ckm) in a plain landscape, within identical loess parent material over a tosca layer (2Ckm-calcrete-petrocalcic horizon), and in a similar pedoclimate. This article studies the origin of this spatial variation. Loess parent materials directly overlie the relic tosca layer, exhumed after erosion of preexisting soils of the Late Pleistocene. The contrast in soil morphology between the petrocalcic horizon and the overlying Holocene soils reflects the effect of polygenesis. The complex soil spatial distribution pattern over the tosca layer appears unrelated to its paleomicrotopography, because soils with Bt horizons are identified in positive and depressed microlandforms of the tosca. The absence of Bt horizons might be caused by formerly intense biological activity related to a stable pattern of two natural vegetation covers or a surface paleomicrotopography that supported distinct vegetation types depending on the soil moisture in each paleomicrolandform.

  11. Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  12. Hamilton-Jacobi tunneling method for dynamical horizons in different coordinate gauges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Criscienzo, Roberto; Hayward, Sean A.; Nadalini, Mario; Vanzo, Luciano; Zerbini, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    Previous work on dynamical black hole instability is further elucidated within the Hamilton-Jacobi method for horizon tunneling and the reconstruction of the classical action by means of the null expansion method. Everything is based on two natural requirements, namely that the tunneling rate is an observable and therefore it must be based on invariantly defined quantities, and that coordinate systems which do not cover the horizon should not be admitted. These simple observations can help to clarify some ambiguities, like the doubling of the temperature occurring in the static case when using singular coordinates and the role, if any, of the temporal contribution of the action to the emission rate. The formalism is also applied to FRW cosmological models, where it is observed that it predicts the positivity of the temperature naturally, without further assumptions on the sign of energy.

  13. Solar wind at 33 AU: Setting bounds on the Pluto interaction for New Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagenal, F.; Delamere, P. A.; Elliott, H. A.; Hill, M. E.; Lisse, C. M.; McComas, D. J.; McNutt, R. L., Jr.; Richardson, J. D.; Smith, C. W.; Strobel, D. F.

    2015-09-01

    NASA's New Horizons spacecraft flies past Pluto on 14 July 2015, carrying two instruments that detect charged particles. Pluto has a tenuous, extended atmosphere that is escaping the planet's weak gravity. The interaction of the solar wind with Pluto's escaping atmosphere depends on solar wind conditions as well as the vertical structure of Pluto's atmosphere. We have analyzed Voyager 2 particles and fields measurements between 25 and 39 AU and present their statistical variations. We have adjusted these predictions to allow for the Sun's declining activity and solar wind output. We summarize the range of SW conditions that can be expected at 33 AU and survey the range of scales of interaction that New Horizons might experience. Model estimates for the solar wind standoff distance vary from ~7 to ~1000 RP with our best estimate being around 40 RP (where we take Pluto's radius to be RP = 1184 km).

  14. Horizon of quantum black holes in various dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casadio, Roberto; Cavalcanti, Rogerio T.; Giugno, Andrea; Mureika, Jonas

    2016-09-01

    We adapt the horizon wave-function formalism to describe massive static spherically symmetric sources in a general (1 + D)-dimensional space-time, for D > 3 and including the D = 1 case. We find that the probability PBH that such objects are (quantum) black holes behaves similarly to the probability in the (3 + 1) framework for D > 3. In fact, for D ≥ 3, the probability increases towards unity as the mass grows above the relevant D-dimensional Planck scale mD. At fixed mass, however, PBH decreases with increasing D, so that a particle with mass m ≃mD has just about 10% probability to be a black hole in D = 5, and smaller for larger D. This result has a potentially strong impact on estimates of black hole production in colliders. In contrast, for D = 1, we find the probability is comparably larger for smaller masses, but PBH < 0.5, suggesting that such lower dimensional black holes are purely quantum and not classical objects. This result is consistent with recent observations that sub-Planckian black holes are governed by an effective two-dimensional gravitation theory. Lastly, we derive Generalised Uncertainty Principle relations for the black holes under consideration, and find a minimum length corresponding to a characteristic energy scale of the order of the fundamental gravitational mass mD in D > 3. For D = 1 we instead find the uncertainty due to the horizon fluctuations has the same form as the usual Heisenberg contribution, and therefore no fundamental scale exists.

  15. Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tinus, R. W.; Roddy, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

  16. 76 FR 55427 - Horizon Technology Finance Corporation, et al.; Notice of Application

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-07

    ... COMMISSION Horizon Technology Finance Corporation, et al.; Notice of Application August 31, 2011. AGENCY...(a) of the Act. Applicants: Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (the ``Company''), Horizon Technology Finance Management LLC (the ``Investment Adviser''), Longview SBIC GP LLC (the ``General...

  17. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J., Jr.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  18. The effects of prediction on the perception for own-race and other-race faces.

    PubMed

    Ran, Guangming; Zhang, Qi; Chen, Xu; Pan, Yangu

    2014-01-01

    Human beings do not passively perceive important social features about others such as race and age in social interactions. Instead, it is proposed that humans might continuously generate predictions about these social features based on prior similar experiences. Pre-awareness of racial information conveyed by others' faces enables individuals to act in "culturally appropriate" ways, which is useful for interpersonal relations in different ethnicity groups. However, little is known about the effects of prediction on the perception for own-race and other-race faces. Here, we addressed this issue using high temporal resolution event-related potential techniques. In total, data from 24 participants (13 women and 11 men) were analyzed. It was found that the N170 amplitudes elicited by other-race faces, but not own-race faces, were significantly smaller in the predictable condition compared to the unpredictable condition, reflecting a switch to holistic processing of other-race faces when those faces were predictable. In this respect, top-down prediction about face race might contribute to the elimination of the other-race effect (one face recognition impairment). Furthermore, smaller P300 amplitudes were observed for the predictable than for unpredictable conditions, which suggested that the prediction of race reduced the neural responses of human brains. PMID:25422892

  19. Prediction of Size Effects in Notched Laminates Using Continuum Damage Mechanics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Camanho, D. P.; Maimi, P.; Davila, C. G.

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the use of a continuum damage model to predict strength and size effects in notched carbon-epoxy laminates. The effects of size and the development of a fracture process zone before final failure are identified in an experimental program. The continuum damage model is described and the resulting predictions of size effects are compared with alternative approaches: the point stress and the inherent flaw models, the Linear-Elastic Fracture Mechanics approach, and the strength of materials approach. The results indicate that the continuum damage model is the most accurate technique to predict size effects in composites. Furthermore, the continuum damage model does not require any calibration and it is applicable to general geometries and boundary conditions.

  20. Neural network-based finite horizon stochastic optimal control design for nonlinear networked control systems.

    PubMed

    Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

    2015-03-01

    The stochastic optimal control of nonlinear networked control systems (NNCSs) using neuro-dynamic programming (NDP) over a finite time horizon is a challenging problem due to terminal constraints, system uncertainties, and unknown network imperfections, such as network-induced delays and packet losses. Since the traditional iteration or time-based infinite horizon NDP schemes are unsuitable for NNCS with terminal constraints, a novel time-based NDP scheme is developed to solve finite horizon optimal control of NNCS by mitigating the above-mentioned challenges. First, an online neural network (NN) identifier is introduced to approximate the control coefficient matrix that is subsequently utilized in conjunction with the critic and actor NNs to determine a time-based stochastic optimal control input over finite horizon in a forward-in-time and online manner. Eventually, Lyapunov theory is used to show that all closed-loop signals and NN weights are uniformly ultimately bounded with ultimate bounds being a function of initial conditions and final time. Moreover, the approximated control input converges close to optimal value within finite time. The simulation results are included to show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:25720004

  1. World-sheet stability, space-time horizons and cosmic censorship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollock, M. D.

    2014-11-01

    Previously, we have analyzed the stability and supersymmetry of the heterotic superstring world sheet in the background Friedmann space-time generated by a perfect fluid with energy density ρ and pressure p = ( γ - 1) ρ. The world sheet is tachyon-free within the range 2/3 ≤ γ ≤ ∞, and globally supersymmetric in the Minkowski-space limit ρ = ∞, or when γ = 2/3, which is the equation of state for stringy matter and corresponds to the Milne universe, that expands along its apparent horizon. Here, this result is discussed in greater detail, particularly with regard to the question of horizon structure, cosmic censorship, the TCP theorem, and local world-sheet supersymmetry. Also, we consider the symmetric background space-time generated by a static, electrically (or magnetically) charged matter distribution of total mass and charge Q, and containing a radially directed macroscopic string. We find that the effective string mass m satisfies the inequality m 2 ≥ 0, signifying stability, provided that , which corresponds to the Reissner-Nordström black hole. The case of marginal string stability, m 2 = 0, is the extremal solution , which was shown by Gibbons and Hull to be supersymmetric, and has a marginal horizon. If , the horizon disappears, m 2 < 0, and the string becomes unstable.

  2. Multiple microtektite horizons in upper Eocene marine sediments: No evidence for mass extinctions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keller, G.; D'Hondt, S.; Vallier, T.L.

    1983-01-01

    Microtektites have been recovered from three horizons in eight middle Eocene to middle Oligocene marine sediment sequences. Five of these occurrences are coeval and of latest Eocene age (37.5 to 38.0 million years ago); three are coeval and of early late Eocene age (38.5 to 39.5 million years ago); and three are of middle Oligocene age (31 to 32 million years ago). In addition, rare probable microtektites have been found in sediments with ages of about 36.0 to 36.5 million years. The microtektite horizon at 37.5 to 38.0 million years can be correlated with the North American tektite-strewn field, which has a fission track age (minimum) of 34 to 35 million years and a paleomagnetic age of 37.5 to 38.0 million years. There is no evidence for mass faunal extinctions at any of the microtektite horizons. Many of the distinct faunal changes that occurred in the middle Eocene to middle Oligocene can be related to the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet and the associated cooling phenomena and intensification of bottom currents that led to large-scale dissolution of calcium carbonate and erosion, which created areally extensive hiatuses in the deep-sea sediment records. The occurrence of microtektite horizons of several ages and the lack of evidence for faunal extinctions suggest that the effects of extraterrestrial bolide impacts may be unimportant in the biologic realm during middle Eocene to middle Oligocene time.

  3. Predicting effects of noncoding variants with deep learning-based sequence model.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G

    2015-10-01

    Identifying functional effects of noncoding variants is a major challenge in human genetics. To predict the noncoding-variant effects de novo from sequence, we developed a deep learning-based algorithmic framework, DeepSEA (http://deepsea.princeton.edu/), that directly learns a regulatory sequence code from large-scale chromatin-profiling data, enabling prediction of chromatin effects of sequence alterations with single-nucleotide sensitivity. We further used this capability to improve prioritization of functional variants including expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and disease-associated variants. PMID:26301843

  4. Predicting effects of noncoding variants with deep learning–based sequence model

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G

    2016-01-01

    Identifying functional effects of noncoding variants is a major challenge in human genetics. To predict the noncoding-variant effects de novo from sequence, we developed a deep learning–based algorithmic framework, DeepSEA (http://deepsea.princeton.edu/), that directly learns a regulatory sequence code from large-scale chromatin-profiling data, enabling prediction of chromatin effects of sequence alterations with single-nucleotide sensitivity. We further used this capability to improve prioritization of functional variants including expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and disease-associated variants. PMID:26301843

  5. Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

    PubMed Central

    Poje, Andrew C.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Lipphardt, Bruce L.; Haus, Brian K.; Ryan, Edward H.; Haza, Angelique C.; Jacobs, Gregg A.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J.; Chen, Shuyi S.; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J.; Kirwan, Albert D.; Huntley, Helga S.; Mariano, Arthur J.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields. PMID:25136097

  6. Submesoscale Dispersion in the Vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon Spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozgokmen, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 meters to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200m-50km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.

  7. Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill.

    PubMed

    Poje, Andrew C; Ozgökmen, Tamay M; Lipphardt, Bruce L; Haus, Brian K; Ryan, Edward H; Haza, Angelique C; Jacobs, Gregg A; Reniers, A J H M; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J; Chen, Shuyi S; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J; Kirwan, Albert D; Huntley, Helga S; Mariano, Arthur J

    2014-09-01

    Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields. PMID:25136097

  8. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  9. Effects on and Predictability of Computer-Mediated Glosses in Reading Comprehension of EFL College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melhi, Abdullah A.

    2014-01-01

    Prior research indicated that computer-mediated glosses had an overall medium effect on second language reading comprehension. This study investigated the effects of computer-mediated glosses on reading comprehension. It also investigated the predictive power index of the e-glosses use with regard to reading comprehension performance, from a…

  10. Predicting Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Algae Lacking Carbon Concentrating Mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Kübler, Janet E; Dudgeon, Steven R

    2015-01-01

    Seaweeds that lack carbon-concentrating mechanisms are potentially inorganic carbon-limited under current air equilibrium conditions. To estimate effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and ocean acidification on photosynthetic rates, we modeled rates of photosynthesis in response to pCO2, temperature, and their interaction under limiting and saturating photon flux densities. We synthesized the available data for photosynthetic responses of red seaweeds lacking carbon-concentrating mechanisms to light and temperature. The model was parameterized with published data and known carbonate system dynamics. The model predicts that direction and magnitude of response to pCO2 and temperature, depend on photon flux density. At sub-saturating light intensities, photosynthetic rates are predicted to be low and respond positively to increasing pCO2, and negatively to increasing temperature. Consequently, pCO2 and temperature are predicted to interact antagonistically to influence photosynthetic rates at low PFD. The model predicts that pCO2 will have a much larger effect than temperature at sub-saturating light intensities. However, photosynthetic rates under low light will not increase proportionately as pCO2 in seawater continues to rise. In the range of light saturation (Ik), both CO2 and temperature have positive effects on photosynthetic rate and correspondingly strong predicted synergistic effects. At saturating light intensities, the response of photosynthetic rates to increasing pCO2 approaches linearity, but the model also predicts increased importance of thermal over pCO2 effects, with effects acting additively. Increasing boundary layer thickness decreased the effect of added pCO2 and, for very thick boundary layers, overwhelmed the effect of temperature on photosynthetic rates. The maximum photosynthetic rates of strictly CO2-using algae are low, so even large percentage increases in rates with climate change will not contribute much to

  11. Predicting Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Algae Lacking Carbon Concentrating Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Kübler, Janet E.; Dudgeon, Steven R.

    2015-01-01

    Seaweeds that lack carbon-concentrating mechanisms are potentially inorganic carbon-limited under current air equilibrium conditions. To estimate effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and ocean acidification on photosynthetic rates, we modeled rates of photosynthesis in response to pCO2, temperature, and their interaction under limiting and saturating photon flux densities. We synthesized the available data for photosynthetic responses of red seaweeds lacking carbon-concentrating mechanisms to light and temperature. The model was parameterized with published data and known carbonate system dynamics. The model predicts that direction and magnitude of response to pCO2 and temperature, depend on photon flux density. At sub-saturating light intensities, photosynthetic rates are predicted to be low and respond positively to increasing pCO2, and negatively to increasing temperature. Consequently, pCO2 and temperature are predicted to interact antagonistically to influence photosynthetic rates at low PFD. The model predicts that pCO2 will have a much larger effect than temperature at sub-saturating light intensities. However, photosynthetic rates under low light will not increase proportionately as pCO2 in seawater continues to rise. In the range of light saturation (Ik), both CO2 and temperature have positive effects on photosynthetic rate and correspondingly strong predicted synergistic effects. At saturating light intensities, the response of photosynthetic rates to increasing pCO2 approaches linearity, but the model also predicts increased importance of thermal over pCO2 effects, with effects acting additively. Increasing boundary layer thickness decreased the effect of added pCO2 and, for very thick boundary layers, overwhelmed the effect of temperature on photosynthetic rates. The maximum photosynthetic rates of strictly CO2-using algae are low, so even large percentage increases in rates with climate change will not contribute much to

  12. Horizon shells and BMS-like soldering transformations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blau, Matthias; O'Loughlin, Martin

    2016-03-01

    We revisit the theory of null shells in general relativity, with a particular emphasis on null shells placed at horizons of black holes. We study in detail the considerable freedom that is available in the case that one solders two metrics together across null hypersurfaces (such as Killing horizons) for which the induced metric is invariant under translations along the null generators. In this case the group of soldering transformations turns out to be infinite dimensional, and these solderings create non-trivial horizon shells containing both massless matter and impulsive gravitational wave components. We also rephrase this result in the language of Carrollian symmetry groups. To illustrate this phenomenon we discuss in detail the example of shells on the horizon of the Schwarzschild black hole (with equal interior and exterior mass), uncovering a rich classical structure at the horizon and deriving an explicit expression for the general horizon shell energy-momentum tensor. In the special case of BMS-like soldering supertranslations we find a conserved shell-energy that is strikingly similar to the standard expression for asymptotic BMS supertranslation charges, suggesting a direct relation between the physical properties of these horizon shells and the recently proposed BMS supertranslation hair of a black hole.

  13. Drug side-effect prediction based on the integration of chemical and biological spaces.

    PubMed

    Yamanishi, Yoshihiro; Pauwels, Edouard; Kotera, Masaaki

    2012-12-21

    Drug side-effects, or adverse drug reactions, have become a major public health concern and remain one of the main causes of drug failure and of drug withdrawal once they have reached the market. Therefore, the identification of potential severe side-effects is a challenging issue. In this paper, we develop a new method to predict potential side-effect profiles of drug candidate molecules based on their chemical structures and target protein information on a large scale. We propose several extensions of kernel regression model for multiple responses to deal with heterogeneous data sources. The originality lies in the integration of the chemical space of drug chemical structures and the biological space of drug target proteins in a unified framework. As a result, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method on the simultaneous prediction of 969 side-effects for approved drugs from their chemical substructure and target protein profiles and show that the prediction accuracy consistently improves owing to the proposed regression model and integration of chemical and biological information. We also conduct a comprehensive side-effect prediction for uncharacterized drug molecules stored in DrugBank and confirm interesting predictions using independent information sources. The proposed method is expected to be useful at many stages of the drug development process. PMID:23157436

  14. Predicting effects of ecosystem engineering on species richness along primary productivity gradients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badano, Ernesto Iván; Marquet, Pablo Angel; Cavieres, Lohengrin Alexis

    2010-01-01

    Physical ecosystem engineering is the process by which some species change the distribution of materials and energy in ecosystems. Although several studies have shown that this process is a driver of local species diversity, the current challenge is predicting when and where ecosystem engineering will have large or small impacts on communities, while also explaining why impacts vary in magnitude across engineer species and environments. This study addresses this issue and proposes a series of predictions for these effects at the three spatial scales (the patch, the habitat and the landscape) along environmental gradients of physical stress. The integrative prediction of this study was that the difference in species diversity between engineered and unmodified situations (patches, habitats or landscapes) will increase as the difference in physical stress between engineered and unmodified patches becomes larger. To test the prediction, the effects of two well known high-Andean ecosystem engineers, the cushion plants Azorella madreporica and Laretia acaulis, were assessed on plant species richness in central Chile. The results support the main prediction, showing that ecosystem engineers have negative effects on species diversity at sites when the environmental modifications they perform increase physical stress for other species, while they have positive effects at sites where these habitat changes mitigate physical stress. Then, the effects of the ecosystem engineers on species diversity seem to depend on the environmental context, where larger environmental modifications are reflected in greater impacts, either positive or negative, on species diversity.

  15. Molecular effective coverage surface area of optical clearing agents for predicting optical clearing potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Wei; Ma, Ning; Zhu, Dan

    2015-03-01

    The improvement of methods for optical clearing agent prediction exerts an important impact on tissue optical clearing technique. The molecular dynamic simulation is one of the most convincing and simplest approaches to predict the optical clearing potential of agents by analyzing the hydrogen bonds, hydrogen bridges and hydrogen bridges type forming between agents and collagen. However, the above analysis methods still suffer from some problem such as analysis of cyclic molecule by reason of molecular conformation. In this study, a molecular effective coverage surface area based on the molecular dynamic simulation was proposed to predict the potential of optical clearing agents. Several typical cyclic molecules, fructose, glucose and chain molecules, sorbitol, xylitol were analyzed by calculating their molecular effective coverage surface area, hydrogen bonds, hydrogen bridges and hydrogen bridges type, respectively. In order to verify this analysis methods, in vitro skin samples optical clearing efficacy were measured after 25 min immersing in the solutions, fructose, glucose, sorbitol and xylitol at concentration of 3.5 M using 1951 USAF resolution test target. The experimental results show accordance with prediction of molecular effective coverage surface area. Further to compare molecular effective coverage surface area with other parameters, it can show that molecular effective coverage surface area has a better performance in predicting OCP of agents.

  16. A Modified Nonlinear Damage Accumulation Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Considering Load Interaction Effects

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Hong-Zhong; Yuan, Rong

    2014-01-01

    Many structures are subjected to variable amplitude loading in engineering practice. The foundation of fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude loading is how to deal with the fatigue damage accumulation. A nonlinear fatigue damage accumulation model to consider the effects of load sequences was proposed in earlier literature, but the model cannot consider the load interaction effects, and sometimes it makes a major error. A modified nonlinear damage accumulation model is proposed in this paper to account for the load interaction effects. Experimental data of two metallic materials are used to validate the proposed model. The agreement between the model prediction and experimental data is observed, and the predictions by proposed model are more possibly in accordance with experimental data than that by primary model and Miner's rule. Comparison between the predicted cumulative damage by the proposed model and an existing model shows that the proposed model predictions can meet the accuracy requirement of the engineering project and it can be used to predict the fatigue life of welded aluminum alloy joint of Electric Multiple Units (EMU); meanwhile, the accuracy of approximation can be obtained from the proposed model though more simple computing process and less material parameters calling for extensive testing than the existing model. PMID:24574866

  17. Possible New Horizons Fundamental Contribution to Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conn Henry, Richard; Murthy, Jayant

    2016-01-01

    The New Horizons (NH) spacecraft (S. Alan Stern, PI) is now past Pluto, and in our poster we explore the possibility of making observations, using the NH P-Alice ultraviolet spectrometer, of the cosmic diffuse ultraviolet background radiation, particularily at high northern and southern Galactic latitudes. In the paper, "The Mystery of the Cosmic Diffuse Ultraviolet Background Radiation," by Richard Conn Henry, Jayant Murthy, James Overduin, Joshua Tyler, ApJ, 798:14 (25pp), 2015 January 1, we demonstrated the existence of a second component of the diffuse far ultraviolet background radiation beyond that provided by dust-scattered starlight. The critical question is, does that second component (of unknown origin) extend shortward of the Lyman limit of 912 Å? If it does, then it seems likely that we have discovered the source of the reionization of the Universe that occurred some time after recombination. As things stand at the moment, there is no known source that has been demonstrated to be capable of performing the reionization: reionization that clearly did occur. Our current understanding of P-Alice suggests that it may well be capable of demonstrating the presence (or absence) of such ionizing cosmic diffuse radiation. At low Galactic latitudes, all such radiation would be totally erased by the presence, in large quantities, of interstellar neutral hydrogen; this will allow us to test the reality of any such flux that we may discover at higher Galactic latitudes.

  18. Lunar horizon glow and the Clementine mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zook, H. A.; Potter, A. E.

    1994-01-01

    The Clementine spacecraft is to be launched into Earth orbit in late January for subsequent insertion into lunar orbit in late February, 1994. There, its primary mission is to produce -- over a period of about two months -- a new photographic map of the entire surface of the Moon; this will be done, in a variety of wavelengths and spatial resolutions, in a manner greatly superior to that previously accomplished for the whole Moon. It will then go on to fly by and photograph the asteroid Geographos. A secondary goal that has been accepted for this mission is to take a series of photographs designed to capture images of, and determine the brightness and extent of, the Lunar Horizon Glow (LHG). One form of LHG is caused by the solar stimulation of emission from Na and K atoms in the lunar exosphere. The scale height of this exosphere is of the order of 100 km. There are also brighter LHG components, with much smaller scale heights, that appear to be caused by scattered off of an exospheric lunar dust cloud.

  19. Perturbative string thermodynamics near black hole horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Thomas G.; Verschelde, Henri; Zakharov, Valentin I.

    2015-06-01

    We provide further computations and ideas to the problem of near-Hagedorn string thermodynamics near (uncharged) black hole horizons, building upon our earlier work [1]. The relevance of long strings to one-loop black hole thermodynamics is emphasized. We then provide an argument in favor of the absence of α'-corrections for the (quadratic) heterotic thermal scalar action in Rindler space. We also compute the large k limit of the cigar orbifold partition functions (for both bosonic and type II superstrings) which allows a better comparison between the flat cones and the cigar cones. A discussion is made on the general McClain-Roth-O'Brien-Tan theorem and on the fact that different torus embeddings lead to different aspects of string thermodynamics. The black hole/string correspondence principle for the 2d black hole is discussed in terms of the thermal scalar. Finally, we present an argument to deal with arbitrary higher genus partition functions, suggesting the breakdown of string perturbation theory (in g s ) to compute thermodynam-ical quantities in black hole spacetimes.

  20. Large Dust Devil on Horizon, Sol 468

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    This movie clip shows a large, distant dust devil -- a whirlwind that lofts dust into the air -- as a dark shape on the horizon near the right side of the images. This dust devil was about 5 kilometers (3 miles) away from NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit, and may have been up to 200 meters or yards in diameter. Smaller dust devils closer to the rover appear bright against the dark ground. Spirit's navigation camera took these images on the rover's 468th martian day, or sol (April 27, 2005.) Contrast has been enhanced for anything in the images that changes from frame to frame, that is, for the dust devil. The number of seconds elapsed since the first frame is indicated at lower left of the images, typically 20 seconds between frames.

    Scientists expected dust devils since before Spirit landed. The landing area inside Gusev Crater is filled with dark streaks left behind when dust devils pick dust up from an area. It is also filled with bright 'hollows,' which are dust-filled miniature craters. Dust covers most of the terrain. Winds flow into and out of Gusev crater every day. The Sun heats the surface so that the surface is warm to the touch even though the atmosphere at 2 meters (6 feet) above the surface would be chilly. That temperature contrast causes convection. Mixing the dust, winds, and convection can trigger dust devils.

  1. Quantum correlations through event horizons: Fermionic versus bosonic entanglement

    SciTech Connect

    Martin-Martinez, Eduardo; Leon, Juan

    2010-03-15

    We disclose the behavior of quantum and classical correlations among all the different spatial-temporal regions of a space-time with an event horizon, comparing fermionic with bosonic fields. We show the emergence of conservation laws for entanglement and classical correlations, pointing out the crucial role that statistics plays in the information exchange (and more specifically, the entanglement tradeoff) across horizons. The results obtained here could shed new light on the problem of information behavior in noninertial frames and in the presence of horizons, giving better insight into the black-hole information paradox.

  2. Quantum correlations through event horizons: Fermionic versus bosonic entanglement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martín-Martínez, Eduardo; León, Juan

    2010-03-01

    We disclose the behavior of quantum and classical correlations among all the different spatial-temporal regions of a space-time with an event horizon, comparing fermionic with bosonic fields. We show the emergence of conservation laws for entanglement and classical correlations, pointing out the crucial role that statistics plays in the information exchange (and more specifically, the entanglement tradeoff) across horizons. The results obtained here could shed new light on the problem of information behavior in noninertial frames and in the presence of horizons, giving better insight into the black-hole information paradox.

  3. Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Bardsley, Sarah; Bennun, Leon; Clout, Mick; Côté, Isabelle M; Depledge, Michael H; Dicks, Lynn V; Dobson, Andrew P; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Impey, Andrew J; Lawton, John H; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David B; Lovejoy, Thomas E; Nally, Ralph Mac; Madgwick, Jane; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie V; Redford, Kent H; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R

    2011-01-01

    This review describes outcomes of a 2010 horizon-scanning exercise building upon the first exercise conducted in 2009. The aim of both horizon scans was to identify emerging issues that could have substantial impacts on the conservation of biological diversity, and to do so sufficiently early to encourage policy-relevant, practical research on those issues. Our group included professional horizon scanners and researchers affiliated with universities and non- and inter-governmental organizations, including specialists on topics such as invasive species, wildlife diseases and coral reefs. We identified 15 nascent issues, including new greenhouse gases, genetic techniques to eradicate mosquitoes, milk consumption in Asia and societal pessimism. PMID:21126797

  4. Area Theorem and Smoothness of Compact Cauchy Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minguzzi, E.

    2015-10-01

    We obtain an improved version of the area theorem for not necessarily differentiable horizons which, in conjunction with a recent result on the completeness of generators, allows us to prove that under the null energy condition every compactly generated Cauchy horizon is smooth and compact. We explore the consequences of this result for time machines, topology change, black holes and cosmic censorship. For instance, it is shown that compact Cauchy horizons cannot form in a non-empty spacetime which satisfies the stable dominant energy condition wherever there is some source content.

  5. Renormalized stress-energy tensor near the horizon of a slowly evolving, rotating black hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolov, Valery P.; Thorne, Kip S.

    1989-04-01

    The renormalized expectation value of the stress-energy tensor ren of a quantum field in an arbitrary quantum state near the future horizon of a rotating (Kerr) black hole is derived in two very different ways: One derivation (restricted for simplicity to a massless scalar field) makes use of traditional techniques of quantum field theory in curved spacetime, augmented by a variant of the ``η formalism'' for handling superradiant modes. The other derivation (valid for any quantum field) uses the equivalence principle to infer, from ren in flat spacetime, what must be ren near the hole's horizon. The two derivations give the same result-a result in accord with a previous conjecture by Zurek and Thorne: ren, in any quantum state, is equal to that, ZAMO, which zero-angular-momentum observers (ZAMO's) would compute from their own physical measurements near the horizon, plus a vacuum-polarization contribution Tvac polμν, which is the negative of the stress-energy of a rigidly rotating thermal reservoir with angular velocity equal to that of the horizon ΩH, and (red-shifted) temperature equal to that of the Hawking temperature TH. A discussion of the conditions of validity for equivalence-principle arguments reveals that curvature-coupling effects (of which the equivalence principle is unaware) should produce fractional corrections of order α2≡(surface gravity of hole)2×(distance to horizon)2 to Tvac polμν and since gravitational blue-shifts cause the largest components of Tvac polμν in the proper reference frame of the ZAMO's to be of O(α-2), curvature-coupling effects in Tvac polμν and thence in ren are of O(α0) in the ZAMO frame. It is shown, by a quantum-field-theory derivation of the density matrix, that in the Hartle-Hawking vacuum the near-horizon ZAMO's see a thermal reservoir with angular velocity ΩH and temperature TH whose thermal stress-energy ZAMO gets renormalized away by Tvac pol

  6. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-11-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  7. Factors Predicting Effectiveness of Neoadjuvant Therapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Ohkura, Yu; Ueno, Masaki; Iizuka, Toshiro; Haruta, Shusuke; Tanaka, Tsuyoshi; Udagawa, Harushi

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to elucidate pretreatment factors that can predict the outcome of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy (NAC(R)T) and help us choose treatment strategies appropriate for individual patients.Few studies have investigated whether clinical data obtainable before the treatment can predict the efficacy of NAC(R)T.Of 1540 patients treated for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) at our department between January 2000 and June 2014, those who underwent surgical resection of cStage II or more advanced ESCC after NAC(R)T (113 NACRT and 146 NACT patients) were enrolled in this study. Information all available before the treatment was analyzed to extract factors that can predict the effectiveness of NAC(R)T. NAC(R)T was considered effective when Grade 2 or greater treatment efficacy was achieved based on the histological grading system.NACRT was effective in 51 (45%) of 113 patients. The analysis of 35 pretreatment factors showed that female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.650; 1.181-11.236), absence of dyslipidemia (HR = 3.284; 1.341-8.041), and histologically poorly differentiated tumor (HR = 2.431; 1.052-5.619) were factors predicting NACRT effectiveness. On the other hand, NACT was effective in 21 (14%) of 146 patients. The analysis of pretreatment factors showed that absence of dyslipidemia (HR = 10.204; 1.302-83.33) and therapy with docetaxel, cisplatin, and 5-fluorouracil (HR = 2.097; 1.027-4.280) were factors predicting NACT effectiveness.The findings of this study investigating factors that could predict the outcome of NAC(R)T suggest that the prevalence of dyslipidemia influences the outcome of NAC(R)T for ESCC. PMID:27082598

  8. Factors Predicting Effectiveness of Neoadjuvant Therapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Ohkura, Yu; Ueno, Masaki; Iizuka, Toshiro; Haruta, Shusuke; Tanaka, Tsuyoshi; Udagawa, Harushi

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of the study was to elucidate pretreatment factors that can predict the outcome of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy (NAC(R)T) and help us choose treatment strategies appropriate for individual patients. Few studies have investigated whether clinical data obtainable before the treatment can predict the efficacy of NAC(R)T. Of 1540 patients treated for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) at our department between January 2000 and June 2014, those who underwent surgical resection of cStage II or more advanced ESCC after NAC(R)T (113 NACRT and 146 NACT patients) were enrolled in this study. Information all available before the treatment was analyzed to extract factors that can predict the effectiveness of NAC(R)T. NAC(R)T was considered effective when Grade 2 or greater treatment efficacy was achieved based on the histological grading system. NACRT was effective in 51 (45%) of 113 patients. The analysis of 35 pretreatment factors showed that female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.650; 1.181–11.236), absence of dyslipidemia (HR = 3.284; 1.341–8.041), and histologically poorly differentiated tumor (HR = 2.431; 1.052–5.619) were factors predicting NACRT effectiveness. On the other hand, NACT was effective in 21 (14%) of 146 patients. The analysis of pretreatment factors showed that absence of dyslipidemia (HR = 10.204; 1.302–83.33) and therapy with docetaxel, cisplatin, and 5-fluorouracil (HR = 2.097; 1.027–4.280) were factors predicting NACT effectiveness. The findings of this study investigating factors that could predict the outcome of NAC(R)T suggest that the prevalence of dyslipidemia influences the outcome of NAC(R)T for ESCC. PMID:27082598

  9. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-09-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  10. What Lies Within: Contributions of the Organic Horizon to Forest Soil Respiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julia, P.; Phillips, C. L.; Bond, B. J.

    2008-12-01

    Soil respiration rates can exhibit tremendous spatial variability, making it difficult to ascertain the proximal causes of CO2 production. In coniferous forest soils, a large proportion of CO2 is produced in the organic layer, and better characterizing the organisms and chemical composition of this heterogeneous horizon may contribute to a predictive understanding of soil respiration rates. In this study we sought to 1) identify characteristics of organic soil that could serve as predictors of soil respiration rates, including the presence/absence of fungal mats, and 2) determine the proportion of total surface efflux derived from the organic horizon seasonally. Working in an old-growth Douglas-fir stand in the Central Oregon Cascades (HJ Andrews LTER), we found that fungal mats of the Piloderma genus colonized over 56% of the forest floor, and organic horizons containing these mats had on average 10% higher surface efflux rates than neighboring non-mat soils. In addition to containing fungal mats, we found the organic horizon contained significantly more fine root biomass than the top 10cm of mineral soil. By measuring moisture and CO2 concentrations throughout mat and non-mat soil profiles, we evaluated CO2 production within soil horizons using the principles of Fick's First Law and the diffusion gradient method. We found that the organic layers produced roughly half of the net CO2 flux and that higher surface efflux rates are associated with higher percent contributions of production in the organic layer. We also examined correlations between respiration rate and a suite of soil biological, physical, and chemical characteristics. While none of these factors correlated directly with surface efflux rates, we found litter depth to be an important variable that correlated with soil water content and pH, and we found that mat soils tended to have deeper litter than non-mat soils. This work indicates that in a mature coniferous forest, the organic horizon serves as a

  11. Integrated Refractive Effects Prediction System (IREPS) user's manual, revision PC-2.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patterson, W. L.

    1990-08-01

    The purpose of this manual is to introduce the contents and operation of the integrated refractive effects prediction system, personal computer version 2.0 (IREPS PC-2.0). IREPS is a system designed to assess the electromagnetic propagation effects of the lower atmosphere on radar, electronic warfare, communication, and weapon guidance systems. The IREPS models account for effects from optical interference, diffraction, tropospheric scatter, refraction, and evaporation and surface-based ducting under horizontally homogeneous atmospheric conditions.

  12. A satellite remote-sensing technique for geological horizon structure mapping

    SciTech Connect

    Fraser, A.J.; Huggins, P.; Cleverley, P.H.; Rees, J.L.

    1995-12-31

    A Satellite Remote Sensing technique is demonstrated which provides accurate and cost effective near-surface geological structure data. In the exploration phase the technique enables the rapid and inexpensive screening of open licences and the targeting of seismic acquisition, particularly important in terrains of difficult data acquisition. This paper describes the satellite data used, the technique of horizon surface data extraction and the analysis of a case study from Yemen. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data and a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM), generated from stereo SPOT panchromatic images, are used in conjunction to identify a number of outcropping horizons and map their spatial position and height. Geological contacts are identified and digitised from the Landsat TM data and the elevations of these points taken from the digital elevation data. The extracted x,y,z co-ordinates are then gridded to construct a horizon structure map. The technique is applied to an area of central Yemen which is characterised by a near-surface {open_quote}layer cake{close_quote} geological structure in an extremely low dipping terrain (Less than 1{degrees}). The remote sensing interpretation is validated by comparison with 2D seismic across the area. Regional flexural structures with bed dips of as little as 0.25{degrees} can be mapped. Trend analysis and residual calculations on the horizon structure map show the techniques ability to identify and quantify horizon deformation related to faulting. Surface geological structure was successfully interpolated into the subsurface indicating potential fault closure at reservoir target depths.

  13. Impact of varying soil structure on transport processes in different diagnostic horizons of three soil types.

    PubMed

    Kodesová, Radka; Vignozzi, Nadia; Rohosková, Marcela; Hájková, Tereza; Kocárek, Martin; Pagliai, Marcello; Kozák, Josef; Simůnek, Jirka

    2009-02-16

    When soil structure varies in different soil types and the horizons of these soil types, it has a significant impact on water flow and contaminant transport in soils. This paper focuses on the effect of soil structure variations on the transport of pesticides in the soil above the water table. Transport of a pesticide (chlorotoluron) initially applied on soil columns taken from various horizons of three different soil types (Haplic Luvisol, Greyic Phaeozem and Haplic Cambisol) was studied using two scenarios of ponding infiltration. The highest infiltration rate and pesticide mobility were observed for the Bt(1) horizon of Haplic Luvisol that exhibited a well-developed prismatic structure. The lowest infiltration rate was measured for the Bw horizon of Haplic Cambisol, which had a poorly developed soil structure and a low fraction of large capillary pores and gravitational pores. Water infiltration rates were reduced during the experiments by a soil structure breakdown, swelling of clay and/or air entrapped in soil samples. The largest soil structure breakdown and infiltration decrease was observed for the Ap horizon of Haplic Luvisol due to the low aggregate stability of the initially well-aggregated soil. Single-porosity and dual-permeability (with matrix and macropore domains) flow models in HYDRUS-1D were used to estimate soil hydraulic parameters via numerical inversion using data from the first infiltration experiment. A fraction of the macropore domain in the dual-permeability model was estimated using the micro-morphological images. Final soil hydraulic parameters determined using the single-porosity and dual-permeability models were subsequently used to optimize solute transport parameters. To improve numerical inversion results, the two-site sorption model was also applied. Although structural changes observed during the experiment affected water flow and solute transport, the dual-permeability model together with the two-site sorption model proved to be

  14. The effects of reading comprehension and launch site on frequency-predictability interactions during paragraph reading.

    PubMed

    Whitford, Veronica; Titone, Debra

    2014-01-01

    We used eye movement measures of paragraph reading to examine whether word frequency and predictability interact during the earliest stages of lexical processing, with a specific focus on whether these effects are modulated by individual differences in reading comprehension or launch site (i.e., saccade length between the prior and currently fixated word--a proxy for the amount of parafoveal word processing). The joint impact of frequency and predictability on reading will elucidate whether these variables additively or multiplicatively affect the earliest stages of lexical access, which, in turn, has implications for computational models of eye movements during reading. Linear mixed effects models revealed additive effects during both early- and late-stage reading, where predictability effects were comparable for low- and high-frequency words. Moreover, less cautious readers (e.g., readers who engaged in skimming, scanning, mindless reading) demonstrated smaller frequency effects than more cautious readers. Taken together, our findings suggest that during extended reading, frequency and predictability exert additive influences on lexical and postlexical processing, and that individual differences in reading comprehension modulate sensitivity to the effects of word frequency. PMID:24205888

  15. DISSOCIATING N400 EFFECTS OF PREDICTION FROM ASSOCIATION IN SINGLE WORD CONTEXTS

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Ellen F.; Holcomb, Phillip J.; Kuperberg, Gina R.

    2013-01-01

    When a word is preceded by a supportive context such as a semantically associated word or a strongly constraining sentence frame, the N400 component of the ERP is reduced in amplitude. An ongoing debate is the degree to which this reduction reflects a passive spread of activation across long-term semantic memory representations as opposed to specific predictions about upcoming input. We addressed this question by embedding semantically associated prime-target pairs within an experimental context that encouraged prediction to a greater or lesser degree. The proportion of related items was used to manipulate the predictive validity of the prime for the target while holding semantic association constant. A semantic category probe detection task was used to encourage semantic processing and to preclude the need for a motor response on the trials of interest. A larger N400 reduction to associated targets was observed in the high than the low relatedness proportion condition, consistent with the hypothesis that predictions about upcoming stimuli make a substantial contribution to the N400 effect. We also observed an earlier priming effect (205–240 ms) in the high proportion condition, which may reflect facilitation due to form-based prediction. In sum, the results suggest that predictability modulates N400 amplitude to a greater degree than the semantic content of the context. PMID:23163410

  16. Dissociating N400 effects of prediction from association in single-word contexts.

    PubMed

    Lau, Ellen F; Holcomb, Phillip J; Kuperberg, Gina R

    2013-03-01

    When a word is preceded by a supportive context such as a semantically associated word or a strongly constraining sentence frame, the N400 component of the ERP is reduced in amplitude. An ongoing debate is the degree to which this reduction reflects a passive spread of activation across long-term semantic memory representations as opposed to specific predictions about upcoming input. We addressed this question by embedding semantically associated prime-target pairs within an experimental context that encouraged prediction to a greater or lesser degree. The proportion of related items was used to manipulate the predictive validity of the prime for the target while holding semantic association constant. A semantic category probe detection task was used to encourage semantic processing and to preclude the need for a motor response on the trials of interest. A larger N400 reduction to associated targets was observed in the high than the low relatedness proportion condition, consistent with the hypothesis that predictions about upcoming stimuli make a substantial contribution to the N400 effect. We also observed an earlier priming effect (205-240 msec) in the high-proportion condition, which may reflect facilitation because of form-based prediction. In summary, the results suggest that predictability modulates N400 amplitude to a greater degree than the semantic content of the context. PMID:23163410

  17. Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics. [pilot performance/workload prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D.

    1978-01-01

    The optimal control model (OCM) of the human operator is used to develop closed-loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed-loop multi-rate simulation in which the optimal control model 'simulates' the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

  18. Predicting molecular scale skin-effect in electrochemical impedance due to anomalous subdiffusion mediated adsorption phenomenon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushagra, Arindam

    2016-02-01

    Anomalous subdiffusion governs the processes which are not energetically driven, on a molecular scale. This paper proposes a model to predict the response of electrochemical impedance due to such diffusion process. Previous works considered the use of fractional calculus to predict the impedance behaviour in response to the anomalous diffusion. Here, we have developed an expression which predicts the skin-effect, marked by an increase in the impedance with increasing frequency, in this regime. Negative inductances have also been predicted as a consequence of the inertial response of adsorbed species upon application of frequency-mediated perturbations. It might help the researchers in the fields of impedimetric sensors to choose the working frequency and those working in the field of batteries to choose the parameters, likewise. This work would shed some light into the molecular mechanisms governing the impedance when exposed to frequency-based perturbations like electromagnetic waves (microwaves to ionizing radiations) and in charge storage devices like batteries etc.

  19. Eye movements and word skipping during reading: Effects of word length and predictability

    PubMed Central

    Rayner, Keith; Slattery, Timothy J.; Drieghe, Denis; Liversedge, Simon P.

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which target words were predictable from prior context was varied: half of the target words were predictable and the other half were unpredictable. In addition, the length of the target word varied: the target words were short (4–6 letters), medium (7–9 letters), or long (10–12 letters). Length and predictability both yielded strong effects on the probability of skipping the target words and on the amount of time readers fixated the target words (when they were not skipped). However, there was no interaction in any of the measures examined for either skipping or fixation time. The results demonstrate that word predictability (due to contextual constraint) and word length have strong and independent influences on word skipping and fixation durations. Furthermore, since the long words extended beyond the word identification span, the data indicate that skipping can occur on the basis of partial information in relation to word identity. PMID:21463086

  20. Imaging the supermassive black hole shadow and jet base of M87 with the event horizon telescope

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Ru-Sen; Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Pankratius, Victor; Broderick, Avery E.; Baron, Fabien; Monnier, John D.

    2014-06-20

    The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a project to assemble a Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network of millimeter wavelength dishes that can resolve strong field general relativistic signatures near a supermassive black hole. As planned, the EHT will include enough dishes to enable imaging of the predicted black hole 'shadow', a feature caused by severe light bending at the black hole boundary. The center of M87, a giant elliptical galaxy, presents one of the most interesting EHT targets as it exhibits a relativistic jet, offering the additional possibility of studying jet genesis on Schwarzschild radius scales. Fully relativistic models of the M87 jet that fit all existing observational constraints now allow horizon-scale images to be generated. We perform realistic VLBI simulations of M87 model images to examine the detectability of the black shadow with the EHT, focusing on a sequence of model images with a changing jet mass load radius. When the jet is launched close to the black hole, the shadow is clearly visible both at 230 and 345 GHz. The EHT array with a resolution of 20-30 μas resolution (∼2-4 Schwarzschild radii) is able to image this feature independent of any theoretical models and we show that imaging methods used to process data from optical interferometers are applicable and effective for EHT data sets. We demonstrate that the EHT is also capable of tracing real-time structural changes on a few Schwarzschild radii scales, such as those implicated by very high-energy flaring activity of M87. While inclusion of ALMA in the EHT is critical for shadow imaging, the array is generally robust against loss of a station.

  1. The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.

    PubMed

    Petchey, Owen L; Pontarp, Mikael; Massie, Thomas M; Kéfi, Sonia; Ozgul, Arpat; Weilenmann, Maja; Palamara, Gian Marco; Altermatt, Florian; Matthews, Blake; Levine, Jonathan M; Childs, Dylan Z; McGill, Brian J; Schaepman, Michael E; Schmid, Bernhard; Spaak, Piet; Beckerman, Andrew P; Pennekamp, Frank; Pearse, Ian S

    2015-07-01

    Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. PMID:25960188

  2. The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

    PubMed Central

    Petchey, Owen L; Pontarp, Mikael; Massie, Thomas M; Kéfi, Sonia; Ozgul, Arpat; Weilenmann, Maja; Palamara, Gian Marco; Altermatt, Florian; Matthews, Blake; Levine, Jonathan M; Childs, Dylan Z; McGill, Brian J; Schaepman, Michael E; Schmid, Bernhard; Spaak, Piet; Beckerman, Andrew P; Pennekamp, Frank; Pearse, Ian S; Vasseur, David

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. PMID:25960188

  3. Effects of environmental change on plant species density: Comparing predictions with experiments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gough, L.; Grace, J.B.

    1999-01-01

    Ideally, general ecological relationships may be used to predict responses of natural communities to environmental change, but few attempts have been made to determine the reliability of predictions based on descriptive data. Using a previously published structural equation model (SEM) of descriptive data from a coastal marsh landscape, we compared these predictions against observed changes in plant species density resulting from field experiments (manipulations of soil fertility, flooding, salinity, and mammalian herbivory) in two areas within the same marsh. In general, observed experimental responses were fairly consistent with predictions. The largest discrepancy occurred when sods were transplanted from high- to low-salinity sites and herbivores selectively consumed a particularly palatable plant species in the transplanted sods. Individual plot responses to some treatments were predicted more accurately than others. Individual fertilized plot responses were not consistent with predictions (P > 0.05), nor were fenced plots (herbivore exclosures; R2 = 0.15) compared to unfenced plots (R2 = 0.53). For the remaining treatments, predictions reasonably matched responses (R2 = 0.63). We constructed an SEM for the experimental data; it explained 60% of the variance in species density and showed that fencing and fertilization led to decreases in species density that were not predicted from treatment effects on community biomass or observed disturbance levels. These treatments may have affected the ratio of live to dead biomass, and competitive exclusion likely decreased species density in fenced and fertilized plots. We conclude that experimental validation is required to determine the predictive value of comparative relationships derived from descriptive data.

  4. Exact event horizon of a black hole merger

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emparan, Roberto; Martínez, Marina

    2016-08-01

    We argue that the event horizon of a binary black hole merger, in the extreme-mass-ratio limit where one of the black holes is much smaller than the other, can be described in an exact analytic way. This is done by tracing in the Schwarzschild geometry a congruence of null geodesics that approaches a null plane at infinity. Its form can be given explicitly in terms of elliptic functions, and we use it to analyze and illustrate the time-evolution of the horizon along the merger. We identify features such as the line of caustics at which light rays enter the horizon, and the critical point at which the horizons touch. We also compute several quantities that characterize these aspects of the merger.

  5. Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM): Expanding Horizons of Health Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... Past Issues Special Section CAM Expanding Horizons of Health Care Past Issues / Winter 2009 Table of Contents For ... and why it is important to tell your health care providers about your use of CAM. We hope ...

  6. The absence of horizon in black-hole formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Pei-Ming

    2016-08-01

    With the back-reaction of Hawking radiation taken into consideration, the work of Kawai, Matsuo and Yokokura [1] has shown that, under a few assumptions, the collapse of matter does not lead to event horizon nor apparent horizon. In this paper, we relax their assumptions and elaborate on the space-time geometry of a generic collapsing body with spherical symmetry. The geometry outside the collapsing sphere is found to be approximated by the geometry outside the white-hole horizon, hence the collapsing matter remains outside the Schwarzschild radius. As particles in Hawking radiation are created in the vicinity of the collapsing matter, the information loss paradox is alleviated. Assuming that the collapsing body evaporates within finite time, there is no event horizon.

  7. Entanglement entropy of a black hole and isolated horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Jianhua; Hu, Shuangqi; Zhao, Ren

    2013-02-01

    Using Unruh-Verlinde temperature obtained by entropic force, we directly calculate partition functions of quantum field in Schwarzschild spacetime via quantum statistical method and derive the expression of the black hole statistical entropy. In our calculation the lower limit of integral is the location of isolated horizon introduced in loop quantum gravity and the upper limit of integral is infinity. So the obtained entropy is the statistical entropy from isolated horizon to the infinite. In our calculation there are not the cutoff and approximation. The results showed that, as long as proper Immirzi parameters are selected, the entropy obtained by loop quantum gravity is consistent with the quantum statistical entropy outside the black hole horizon. Therefore the black hole entropy is a quantum entanglement entropy outside the isolated horizon.

  8. Note on electrical and thermodynamic properties of isolated horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Gerui; Wu, Xiaoning; Gao, Sijie

    2015-03-01

    The electrical laws and Carnot cycle of isolated horizons (IH) are investigated in this paper. We establish Ohm's law and Joule's law of isolated horizons and find that the conceptual picture of black holes (membrane paradigm) can also apply to this kind of quasilocal black holes. We also investigate the geometrical properties near nonrotating IHs and find that under the first-order approximation of r , there exist a Killing vector ∂∂u/ and a Hamiltonian conjugate to it, so this vector can be thought to be a physical observer. We calculate the energy as measured at infinity of a particle at rest outside a nonrotating IH, and we use this result to construct a reversible Carnot cycle with the isolated horizon as a cold reservoir, which confirms the thermodynamic nature of isolated horizons.

  9. JERSEY APPROACH VIADUCT LOOKING EAST, NOTE VERRAZANO TOWERS ON HORIZON ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    JERSEY APPROACH VIADUCT LOOKING EAST, NOTE VERRAZANO TOWERS ON HORIZON TO LEFT - Goethals Bridge, Spanning Arthur Kill from New Jersey to Staten Island, Staten Island (subdivision), Richmond County, NY

  10. Universal properties of the near-horizon optical geometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, G. W.; Warnick, C. M.

    2009-03-01

    Making use of the fact that the optical geometry near a static nondegenerate Killing horizon is asymptotically hyperbolic, we investigate some universal features of black-hole horizons. Applying the Gauss-Bonnet theorem allows us to establish some general properties of gravitational lensing, valid for all black holes. Hyperbolic geometry allows us to find rates for the loss of scalar, vector, and fermionic “hair” as objects fall quasistatically towards the horizon, extending previous results for Schwarzschild to all static Killing horizons. In the process we find the Liénard-Wiechert potential for hyperbolic space and calculate the force between electrons mediated by neutrinos, extending the flat space result of Feinberg and Sucher. We further demonstrate how these techniques allow us to derive the exact Copson-Linet potential due to a point charge in a Schwarzschild background in a simple fashion.

  11. Universal properties of the near-horizon optical geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbons, G. W.; Warnick, C. M.

    2009-03-15

    Making use of the fact that the optical geometry near a static nondegenerate Killing horizon is asymptotically hyperbolic, we investigate some universal features of black-hole horizons. Applying the Gauss-Bonnet theorem allows us to establish some general properties of gravitational lensing, valid for all black holes. Hyperbolic geometry allows us to find rates for the loss of scalar, vector, and fermionic ''hair'' as objects fall quasistatically towards the horizon, extending previous results for Schwarzschild to all static Killing horizons. In the process we find the Lienard-Wiechert potential for hyperbolic space and calculate the force between electrons mediated by neutrinos, extending the flat space result of Feinberg and Sucher. We further demonstrate how these techniques allow us to derive the exact Copson-Linet potential due to a point charge in a Schwarzschild background in a simple fashion.

  12. Hawking radiation from ``phase horizons'' in laser filaments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unruh, W. G.; Schützhold, R.

    2012-09-01

    Belgiorno et al. have reported on experiments aiming at the detection of (the analogue of) Hawking radiation using laser filaments [F. Belgiorno et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 203901 (2010)]. They sent intense focused Bessel pulses into a nonlinear dielectric medium in order to change its refractive index via the Kerr effect and saw creation of photons orthogonal to the direction of travel of the pulses. Since the refractive index change in the pulse generated a “phase horizon” (where the phase velocity of these photons equals the pulse speed), they concluded that they observed the analogue of Hawking radiation. We study this scenario in a model with a phase horizon and a phase velocity very similar to that of their experiment and find that the effective metric does not quite correspond to a black hole. The photons created in this model are not due to the analogue of black hole evaporation but have more similarities to cosmological particle creation. Nevertheless, even this effect cannot explain the observations—unless the pulse has significant small scale structure in both the longitudinal and transverse dimensions.

  13. The New Horizons Radio Science Experiment (REX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tyler, G. L.; Linscott, I. R.; Bird, M. K.; Hinson, D. P.; Strobel, D. F.; Pätzold, M.; Summers, M. E.; Sivaramakrishnan, K.

    2008-10-01

    The New Horizons (NH) Radio Science Experiment, REX, is designed to determine the atmospheric state at the surface of Pluto and in the lowest few scale heights. Expected absolute accuracies in n, p, and T at the surface are 4ṡ1019 m-3, 0.1 Pa, and 3 K, respectively, obtained by radio occultation of a 4.2 cm- λ signal transmitted from Earth at 10-30 kW and received at the NH spacecraft. The threshold for ionospheric observations is roughly 2ṡ109 e- m-3. Radio occultation experiments are planned for both Pluto and Charon, but the level of accuracy for the neutral gas is expected to be useful at Pluto only. REX will also measure the nightside 4.2 cm- λ thermal emission from Pluto and Charon during the time NH is occulted. At Pluto, the thermal scan provides about five half-beams across the disk; at Charon, only disk integrated values can be obtained. A combination of two-way tracking and occultation signals will determine the Pluto system mass to about 0.01 percent, and improve the Pluto-Charon mass ratio. REX flight equipment augments the NH radio transceiver used for spacecraft communications and tracking. Implementation of REX required realization of a new CIC-SCIC signal processing algorithm; the REX hardware implementation requires 1.6 W, and has mass of 160 g in 520 cm3. Commissioning tests conducted after NH launch demonstrate that the REX system is operating as expected.

  14. Predictions for the Effects of Free Stream Turbulence on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, Robert J.; Giel, Paul W.; Ames, Forrest E.

    2004-01-01

    An approach to predicting the effects of free stream turbulence on turbine vane and blade heat transfer is described. Four models for predicting the effects of free stream turbulence were in incorporated into a Navier-Stokes CFD analysis. Predictions were compared with experimental data in order to identify an appropriate model for use across a wide range of flow conditions. The analyses were compared with data from five vane geometries and from four rotor geometries. Each of these nine geometries had data for different Reynolds numbers. Comparisons were made for twenty four cases. Steady state calculations were done because all experimental data were obtained in steady state tests. High turbulence levels often result in suction surface transition upstream of the throat, while at low to moderate Reynolds numbers the pressure surface remains laminar. A two-dimensional analysis was used because the flow is predominately two-dimensional in the regions where free stream turbulence significantly augments surface heat transfer. Because the evaluation of models for predicting turbulence effects can be affected by other factors, the paper discusses modeling for transition, relaminarization, and near wall damping. Quantitative comparisons are given between the predictions and data.

  15. Effect of foam on temperature prediction and heat recovery potential from biological wastewater treatment.

    PubMed

    Corbala-Robles, L; Volcke, E I P; Samijn, A; Ronsse, F; Pieters, J G

    2016-05-15

    Heat is an important resource in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) which can be recovered. A prerequisite to determine the theoretical heat recovery potential is an accurate heat balance model for temperature prediction. The insulating effect of foam present on the basin surface and its influence on temperature prediction were assessed in this study. Experiments were carried out to characterize the foam layer and its insulating properties. A refined dynamic temperature prediction model, taking into account the effect of foam, was set up. Simulation studies for a WWTP treating highly concentrated (manure) wastewater revealed that the foam layer had a significant effect on temperature prediction (3.8 ± 0.7 K over the year) and thus on the theoretical heat recovery potential (30% reduction when foam is not considered). Seasonal effects on the individual heat losses and heat gains were assessed. Additionally, the effects of the critical basin temperature above which heat is recovered, foam thickness, surface evaporation rate reduction and the non-absorbed solar radiation on the theoretical heat recovery potential were evaluated. PMID:27017195

  16. Supertranslations and Superrotations at the Black Hole Horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnay, Laura; Giribet, Gaston; González, Hernán A.; Pino, Miguel

    2016-03-01

    We show that the asymptotic symmetries close to nonextremal black hole horizons are generated by an extension of supertranslations. This group is generated by a semidirect sum of Virasoro and Abelian currents. The charges associated with the asymptotic Killing symmetries satisfy the same algebra. When considering the special case of a stationary black hole, the zero mode charges correspond to the angular momentum and the entropy at the horizon.

  17. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, William J; Bardsley, Sarah; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael H; Dicks, Lynn V; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Margerison, Ceri; Monk, Kathryn A; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S; Prior, Stephanie V; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Spalding, Mark D; Watkinson, Andrew R

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of our fourth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity. The 15 issues were identified via an iterative, transferable process by a team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. The 15 topics include the commercial use of antimicrobial peptides, thorium-fuelled nuclear power, and undersea oil production. PMID:23219597

  18. Supertranslations and Superrotations at the Black Hole Horizon.

    PubMed

    Donnay, Laura; Giribet, Gaston; González, Hernán A; Pino, Miguel

    2016-03-01

    We show that the asymptotic symmetries close to nonextremal black hole horizons are generated by an extension of supertranslations. This group is generated by a semidirect sum of Virasoro and Abelian currents. The charges associated with the asymptotic Killing symmetries satisfy the same algebra. When considering the special case of a stationary black hole, the zero mode charges correspond to the angular momentum and the entropy at the horizon. PMID:26991167

  19. Optical Navigation Preparations for New Horizons Pluto Flyby

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Owen, William M., Jr.; Dumont, Philip J.; Jackman, Coralie D.

    2012-01-01

    The New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto and its satellites in July 2015. As was the case for the Voyager encounters with Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, mission success will depend heavily on accurate spacecraft navigation, and accurate navigation will be impossible without the use of pictures of the Pluto system taken by the onboard cameras. We describe the preparations made by the New Horizons optical navigators: picture planning, image processing algorithms, software development and testing, and results from in-flight imaging.

  20. Thermodynamics of cosmological horizons in f(T) gravity

    SciTech Connect

    Bamba, Kazuharu; Geng, Chao-Qiang E-mail: geng@phys.nthu.edu.tw

    2011-11-01

    We explore thermodynamics of the apparent horizon in f(T) gravity with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium descriptions. We find the same dual equilibrium/non-equilibrium formulation for f(T) as for f(R) gravity. In particular, we show that the second law of thermodynamics can be satisfied for the universe with the same temperature outside and inside the apparent horizon.