Science.gov

Sample records for preliminary risk assessment

  1. 76 FR 39399 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-06

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability... availability of EPA's preliminary human health risk assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos and... comprehensive preliminary human health risk assessment for all chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing...

  2. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment... availability of the chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document... for the chlorpyrifos reregistration review, preliminary human health risk assessment, established...

  3. Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

  4. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    The feasibility, desirability and preferred approaches for disposal of selected high-level nuclear wastes in space were analyzed. Preliminary space disposal risk estimates and estimates of risk uncertainty are provided.

  5. Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE): Protocol and preliminary data.

    PubMed

    Gale, Nichola S; Albarrati, Ali M; Munnery, Margaret M; Munnery, Iain C; Irfan, Mujammil; Bolton, Charlotte E; Rambaran, Curtis N; Singer, Ruth M Tal; Cockcroft, John R; Shale, Dennis J

    2014-11-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease. Established comorbidities include cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, loss of muscle mass and function, depression, and impaired quality of life. The natural history is not well understood. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of comorbidities in COPD. The primary aims are to delineate the progression and interrelationships of cardiovascular disease and associated comorbidities. Each year ARCADE aims to recruit 250 patients diagnosed with COPD and 50 comparators (free from respiratory disease). Assessments include spirometry, body composition, blood pressure, aortic stiffness (pulse wave velocity (PWV)), noninvasive measures of cardiac output, systemic inflammatory mediators, blood and urine biochemistry, and physical and health outcomes. These will be repeated at 2 and 5 years. In the first year of recruitment, 350 patients and 100 comparators were recruited. The reproducibility of aortic PWV, cardiac output, stroke volume, and cardiac index was evaluated and accepted in 30 patients free from overt cardiovascular disease. The preliminary data from ARCADE have demonstrated acceptable reproducibility of hemodynamic outcome measures. Further longitudinal data collection will increase knowledge of the progression and interactions between cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities in COPD. PMID:25159833

  6. Aflatoxins in food products consumed in Brazil: a preliminary dietary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Andrade, P D; de Mello, M Homem; França, J A; Caldas, E D

    2013-01-01

    A preliminary dietary exposure assessment for aflatoxins (AFs; AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2) was conducted to evaluate the potential carcinogenic risks for the Brazilian population. AF concentration data in food were obtained from analysis reports issued by the Central Public Health Laboratory of the Federal District (LACEN-DF) and from published work. Food consumption and body weight (bw) data were obtained from a national survey conducted in 2008/2009. Cancer risks arising from exposure to aflatoxins were assessed using the carcinogenic potency of AFs estimated by the JECFA, and hepatitis B virus prevalence in the Brazilian population. Additionally, margins of exposure (MOE) were also calculated for the various scenarios investigated. A total of 942 food samples were analysed for AFs in the Federal District between 2002 and 2011 with 4.5% of them being positive for at least one aflatoxin (LOQ = 2 µg kg(-1)). The highest percentage of contamination was found in peanuts (8.1%) and Brazil nuts (6.0%), with mean levels ranging from 6.7 µg kg(-1) in peanut products to 36.9 µg kg(-1) in Brazil nuts. Most of the studies conducted elsewhere in Brazil found similar results. Total AF intake for the total Brazilian population and high consumers of food relevant for AF contamination in Brazil (upper bound; samples < LOQ = 0.5 LOQ) were 6.8 and 27.6 ng kg(-1) bw day(-1), respectively. Cancer risk reached 0.0753 cancers year(-1) per 10(5) individuals for the total population and 0.3056 cancers year(-1) per 10(5) individuals for high consumers. MOE reached 25 and 6 for the total population and high consumers, respectively, indicating a potential risk for consumers. Aflatoxins are genotoxic carcinogens, and government action should be maintained and continuously improved in order to guarantee that human exposure levels are kept as low as possible. PMID:22963655

  7. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process. PMID:21549039

  8. 78 FR 44924 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment, Preliminary...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-25

    ...We are advising the public that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has prepared a preliminary determination regarding a request from the Monsanto Company seeking a determination of nonregulated status of canola designated as MON 88302, which has been genetically engineered for resistance to the herbicide glyphosate with more flexibility in the timing of herbicide application. We......

  9. 78 FR 44926 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment, Environmental Assessment, Preliminary...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-25

    ...We are advising the public that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has prepared a preliminary determination regarding a request from the Monsanto Company seeking a determination of nonregulated status of maize designated as MON 87427, which has been genetically engineered with tissue-selective resistance to glyphosate in order to facilitate the production of hybrid maize seed. We......

  10. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs.

  11. Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-10-01

    The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

  12. [Preliminary health risk assessment of heavy metals in drinking waters in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Gao, Ji-jun; Zhang, Li-ping; Huang, Sheng-biao; Ma, Mei; Wang, Zi-jian

    2004-03-01

    Concentrations distribution of the Cu, Hg, Cd, As in drinking water in the 8 city districts and 10 counties in Beijing was studied based on a total of 120 random samples. Health risks associated with 4 metals in drinking water were assessed using USEPA health risk assessment model. The results showed that the concentrations of the heavy metals in drinking water in Beijing ranged from 0.81 to 6.96 micrograms.L-1 for Cu, 0.34-0.82 microgram.L-1 for Cd, 0.10-0.74 microgram.L-1 for Hg and 0.19-3.02 micrograms.L-1 for As. Among the health risks caused by the carcinogens in drinking water, the largest risk associated with As should be in Tongzhou County (2.0 x 10(-5).a-1) and that with Cd should be in Changping County (2.3 x 10(-6).a-1), while both were significantly lower than the maximum allowance levels recommended by ICRP(5 x 10(-5).a-1). Among the non-carcinogenic risks in drinking water, the largest risk was the risk associated with Hg, followed by Cu. The non-carcinogenic risks levels ranged from 10(-8) to 10(-9), much lower than the maximum allowance levels recommended by ICRP. PMID:15202233

  13. Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greco, Michele; Martino, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    Planning and management of coastal environment, both terrestrial and marine, is affected by several actions in environment resource conservation and improvement paying specific attention to risk forecasting and preventing. In such context the EU flood Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires Member States the assessment and management of flood risk, and the EU water framework Directive (2000/60/EC) are the key factors in the integrated river basin management to assure an efficient and rational use of resources. Afterwards, coastal risk assessment and mapping is a propaedeutic phase to plan and manage coastal areas. In this work risk analysis refers to the results obtained by the combined application of coastal flooding and erosion risks in the activities carried out to prepare Regional Coast Management Plan for the Ionian coast of Basilicata Region located in the south of Italy. In order to define the driving forces acting on the shore, high resolution lidar data, bathymetric information and wave climate statistics acquired by meteorological analyses on wind field data referred to different acquisition times are used. The systemic vulnerability estimation is achieved by composing both hazard factors combined in the Criticality Coastal Index depending on of the assessment of Coastal Flood Index and Coastal Erosion Index based on morphologic and socio-economic variables.

  14. Trace organic contamination in biota collected from the Pearl River Estuary, China: a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wei, S; Lau, R K F; Fung, C N; Zheng, G J; Lam, J C W; Connell, D W; Fang, Z; Richardson, B J; Lam, P K S

    2006-12-01

    The marine ecosystem of the Pearl River Delta, located on the southern coast of China, has been heavily exploited following the rapid economic growth that has occurred since the 1980s. This investigation aimed to elucidate trace organic contamination in marine biota inhabiting the Pearl River Delta area. Biota samples, including green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis), oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) and shrimp (Penaeus orientalis) were sampled from 16 stations fringing the Estuary. Elevated concentrations (on a dry weight basis) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (27.8-1041.0 ng/g), petroleum hydrocarbons (1.7-2345.4 microg/g), polychlorinated biphenyls (2.1-108.8 ng/g), DDTs (1.9-79.0 ng/g), and hexachlorocyclohexanes (n.d.-38.4 ng/g) were recorded. A human health risk assessment was conducted to estimate the risk to local residents associated with the consumption of biota collected from the Pearl River Estuary. The results indicated that PCBs were at levels that may cause deleterious health effects in populations that consume large amounts of seafood. However, it would be instructive to establish health criteria for trace organic contaminants that are specific to the local populations, in order to derive a more accurate and relevant health risk assessment. PMID:16908034

  15. Seasonal occurrence, removal efficiencies and preliminary risk assessment of multiple classes of organic UV filters in wastewater treatment plants.

    PubMed

    Tsui, Mirabelle M P; Leung, H W; Lam, Paul K S; Murphy, Margaret B

    2014-04-15

    Organic ultraviolet (UV) filters are applied widely in personal care products (PCPs), but the distribution and risks of these compounds in the marine environment are not well known. In this study, the occurrence and removal efficiencies of 12 organic UV filters in five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) equipped with different treatment levels in Hong Kong, South China, were investigated during one year and a preliminary environmental risk assessment was carried out. Using a newly developed simultaneous multiclass quantification liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane (BMDM), 2,4-dihydroxybenzophenone (BP-1), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), benzophenone-4 (BP-4) and 2-ethyl-hexyl-4-trimethoxycinnamate (EHMC) were frequently (≥80%) detected in both influent and effluent with mean concentrations ranging from 23 to 1290 ng/L and 18-1018 ng/L, respectively; less than 2% of samples contained levels greater than 1000 ng/L. Higher concentrations of these frequently detected compounds were found during the wet/summer season, except for BP-4, which was the most abundant compound detected in all samples in terms of total mass. The target compounds behaved differently depending on the treatment level in WWTPs; overall, removal efficiencies were greater after secondary treatment when compared to primary treatment with >55% and <20% of compounds showing high removal (defined as >70% removal), respectively. Reverse osmosis was found to effectively eliminate UV filters from effluent (>99% removal). A preliminary risk assessment indicated that BP-3 and EHMC discharged from WWTPs may pose high risk to fishes in the local environment. PMID:24503280

  16. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

    1997-06-01

    The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on the basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-04-01

    While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals

  18. Second annual review update preliminary risk assessment of federally protected species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.

    1998-02-01

    In FY96 and FY97, preliminary assessments were conducted of the potential risk from legacy waste to the American peregrine falcon (Falco peregrimus), the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), and the Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). Estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values (TRVs) to generate hazard indices that included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals). The tools used included a custom FORTRAN code ECORSK, and a geographic information system. The assessments originally included only the soil ingestion contaminant pathway. Since the initial assessments, a food consumption contaminant pathway has been added, bioaccumulation and biomagnification of some contaminants have been factored into the food consumption pathway, and some of the TRVs against which estimated doses are compared have been changed to values which relate more closely to the Aves taxonomical class. With these and other more subtle improvements in model input parameters, ECORSK has been revised and the model has been re-executed for the owl and peregrine exposure units that originally generated the highest risk indices. This report contains the updated results. On average, results indicate a small potential for impact to the peregrine falcon, but no appreciable impact to the spotted owl nor the bald eagle. The original reports cited in this document should be consulted for details on methods.

  19. A Preliminary Examination of Specific Risk Assessment for Sexual Offenders against Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Proeve, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Specific risk questions concerning sexual offending, such as risk of offending against male victims given identified female victims, have seldom been discussed in the child sexual abuse literature. Two approaches to specific risk questions are described: (a) conditional probability calculations, and (b) the development of risk assessment…

  20. Preliminary Assessment of Rock Fall Hazard and Risk In The Central Part of The Nera Valley, Umbria Region, Central Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghigi, S.; Guzzetti, F.; Reichenbach, P.; Detti, R.

    Rock falls are one of the most common types of fast moving landslides in mountain areas. They represent the most abundant landslides triggered by earthquakes. Rock falls are one of the primary causes of fatalities and of damage caused by landslides. Despite being widespread and highly destructive, only a few attempts have been made to establish rock fall hazard and the associate risk along transportation corridors in mountain areas. We present a preliminary assessment of rock fall hazard and risk for the central part of the Nera River Valley, in the Umbria Region of Central Italy. The Nera River, a tributary of the Tiber River, flows across the Apennines in a deep and narrow valley. Two national roads, the SS 305 and the SS 209, and several mountain villages are located along the valley bottom. The villages and the roads are frequently affected by rock falls. On October 1997, aftershocks of the Umbria-Marche earth- quake triggered hundreds of rock falls, ranging in size from few cubic decimeters, to some tens of cubic meter. Damage was severe and the two national roads were closed for several weeks. Following the earthquake defensive measures (including scaling, rock fences, elastic fences, and artificial tunnels) were installed along the valley. These costly defensive measures were installed without any specific assessment of rock fall hazard and the associated risk. Using a 3-dimensional, spatially distributed rock falls simulation program, we have quantitatively evaluated rock fall hazard along a 20 kilo- metres section of the central part of the valley. The source areas of rock falls (i.e., the detachment zones) were identified from vertical aerial photographs and in the field. Parameters controlling the loss of energy at impact points and during rolling were ob- tained from a surface geology map prepared updating a geological map through the analysis of aerial photographs and field surveys. Maps of the expected rock fall count, a proxy for the probability of

  1. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

    1996-09-01

    More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

  2. A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gonzales, G.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Foxx, T.S.; Fresquez, P.R.; Mullen, M.A.; Pratt, L.E.; Gomez, P.E.

    1998-04-01

    The Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) require that the Department of Energy protect the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), a state and federally listed species, from stressors such as contaminants. A preliminary risk assessment of the bald eagle was performed using a custom FORTRAN code, ECORSK5, and the geographical information system. Estimated exposure doses to the eagle for radionuclide, inorganic metal, and organic contaminants were derived for varying ratios of aquatic vs. terrestrial simulated diet and compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (His). HI results indicate that no appreciable impact to the bald eagle is expected from contaminants at LANL from soil ingestion and food consumption pathways. This includes a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes linear additive toxicity. Improving model realism by weighting simulated eagle foraging based on distance from potential roost sites increased the HI by 76%, but still to inconsequential levels. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, eagle habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at low levels.

  3. Preliminary zoning for risk assessment and remediation purposes in Portman Bay.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Sirvent, Carmen; Martínez-Sanchez, MJose; Garcia-Lorenzo, MariLuz; Hernandez-Cordoba, Manuel; Molina, Jose; Gonzalez, Eva; Perez-Espinosa, Victor

    2014-05-01

    determined using Cu-Kα radiation with an X-ray Diffractometer and appropriate software. Data for metal leached, Acid-volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) were also obtained. The results allowed two types of materials to be differentiated. The first one with a fine particle size, is related with the direct discharge of wastes and contains jarosite and other minerals resulting of supergenic alteration. The pH is low and both the level of heavy metals and chemical reactivity are high. The second, different material is black sand, a sediment of coarse texture in which stable minerals, phylosilicates, iron oxides and hydroxides, siderite, pyrite and quartz predominate. The pH is close to neutrality and despite a high heavy metals level, the chemical reactivity is low. The data allowed a preliminary zoning of the risk in the area to be established, and this was the starting point to outline the remediation project.

  4. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Dejun; Zhan, Changlin; Yang, Guanglin; Liu, Xingqi; Yang, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10−6–10−4 but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75%) by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92%) via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust. PMID:27187427

  5. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area.

    PubMed

    Wan, Dejun; Zhan, Changlin; Yang, Guanglin; Liu, Xingqi; Yang, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10(-6)-10(-4) but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75%) by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92%) via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust. PMID:27187427

  6. Determination of anti-anxiety and anti-epileptic drugs in hospital effluent and a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    de Almeida, Carlos Alberto A; Brenner, Carla G B; Minetto, Luciane; Mallmann, Carlos A; Martins, Ayrton F

    2013-11-01

    In this study, an analytical methodology was developed for the determination of psycho-active drugs in the treated effluent of the University Hospital at the Federal University of Santa Maria, RS - Brazil. Samples were collected from point A (Emergency) and point B (General effluent). The adopted methodology included a pre-concentration procedure involving the use of solid phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. The limit of detection for bromazepam and lorazepam was 4.9 ± 1.0 ng L(-1) and, for carbamazepine, clonazepam and diazepam was 6.1 ± 1.5 ng L(-1). The limit of quantification was 30.0 ± 1.1 ng L(-1), for bromazepam, clonazepam and lorazepam; for carbamazepine was 50.0 ± 1.8 ng L(-1) and was 40.0 ± 1.0 ng L(-1) for diazepam. The mean concentrations in the Emergency and General effluent treated currents were as follows: for bromazepam, 195 ± 6 ng L(-1) and 137 ± 7 ng L(-1); for carbamazepine, 590 ± 6 ng L(-1) and 461 ± 10 ng L(-1); for diazepam, 645 ± 1 ng L(-1) and 571 ± 10 ng L(-1); for lorazepam, 96 ± 7 ng L(-1) and 42 ± 4 ng L(-1); and for clonazepam, 134 ± 10 ng L(-1) and 57 ± 10 ng L(-1). A preliminary risk assessment was conducted: carbamazepine and diazepam require considerable attention owing to their environmental toxicity. The occurrence of these psychoactive-drugs and the environmental risks that they pose demonstrated the need for a more efficient treatment system. As far we are aware, there have been no comparable studies to this on the hazards of hospital effluents in Brazil, and very few that have carried out a risk assessment of psycho-active drugs in hospital effluent in general. PMID:24034828

  7. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  8. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    SciTech Connect

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites.

  9. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.

    1982-01-01

    Safety guidelines are presented. Waste form, waste processing and payload fabrication facilities, shipping casks and ground transport vehicles, payload primary container/core, radiation shield, reentry systems, launch site facilities, uprooted space shuttle launch vehicle, Earth packing orbits, orbit transfer systems, and space destination are discussed. Disposed concepts and risks are then discussed.

  10. Ehrlichiosis in Household Dogs and Parasitized Ticks in Kerman-Iran: Preliminary Zoonotic Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Motaghipisheh, Shahrzad; Akhtardanesh, Baharak; Ghanbarpour, Reza; Aflatoonian, Mohammad Reza; Khalili, Mohammad; Nourollahifard, Saeed Reza; Mokhtari, Saghar

    2016-01-01

    Background: Ehrlichiosis is an emerging tick-borne zoonotic disease caused by the family of Anaplasmatacea. Recently, outbreak of human monocytic ehrlichiosis was reported in northern part of Iran. Besides, serological evidence of canine monocytic ehrlichiosis caused by Ehrlichia canis was reported from southeastern of Iran but the epidemiology of this disease is almost undetermined in Iran. The present study was designed to use PCR for detection of Ehrlichia spp. in tick infested household dogs and determination of risks of disease transmission to dog’s owners. Method: Blood samples were prepared from 100 tick infested household dogs after complete clinical examination. Complete cell blood count was done for each sample. DNA extraction was done and PCR was carried out by a commercial kit afterwards. Regarding to PCR results, blood samples were collected from owners and family members who were exposed to infected and non-infected dogs. A similar method was utilized for DNA extraction and PCR in human samples. Result: Ehrlichial DNA was detected by PCR in six percent of Rhipicephalus sanguineus tick pools and 9% of the examined dogs. No positive sample was detected among the 67 examined human bloods. Conclusion: Ehrlichiosis could be considered as an emerging canine disease but owning a dog should not be considered a major risk factor for ehrlichiosis in humans. Further serological and molecular studies in different parts of Iran are required to clarify the epidemiology of ehrlichiosis in canine, ticks, and human population. PMID:27308282

  11. Preliminary Assessment of Ergonomic Injury Risk Factors in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit Spacesuit Glove

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amick, Ryan Z.; Reid, Christopher R.; Vu, Linh Q.; Nguyen, Dan; Sweet, Robert; McFarland, Shane; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2016-01-01

    Injuries to the hands and fingers are commonly reported among astronauts who perform and train for Extravehicular Activities in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit Spacesuit. In an effort to better understand the physical and environmental ergonomic injury risk factors associated with spacesuit glove use, a custom built carrier glove with multiple integrated sensors was developed to be worn within the spacesuit glove with the purpose of measuring the physical and environmental variables acting on the fingers and hand, and the physiological response, within two pressurized glove conditions in a 1G laboratory setting. One male subject performed multiple dynamic and functional tasks in a pressurized EMU. Results indicate that the sensor glove is capable of measuring multiple physical and environmental variables associated with the development of finger and hand injuries observed in astronauts.

  12. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan. PMID:24827576

  13. Enhanced preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-02-01

    An Enhanced Preliminary Assessment was conducted at Fort Benjamin Harrison (FBH) Indiana, which is located approximately 12 miles from downtown Indianapolis in Lawrence Township, Marion County. FBH contains 2,501 acres, of which approximately 1,069 acres is covered by woodlands. Activities at FBH include administration, training, housing, and support. Sensitive environments at FBH include wetlands, habitat areas for the endangered Indiana bat, endangered plants, and historically and archeologically significant areas. FBH is a U.S. Army Soldier Support Center under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Based on information obtained during and subsequent to a site visit (15 through 18 October 1991), 36 types of Areas Requiring Environmental Evaluation (AREEs) were identified and grouped by the following categories: Facility Operations; Maintenance/Fueling Operations; Water Treatment Operations; Training Areas; Hazardous Materials Storage/Waste Handling Areas; Sanitary Wastewater Treatment Plants; Storage Tanks; Landfills/Incinerators; Medical Facilities; Burn Pit Areas; Spill Areas; Ammunition Storage; Coal Storage; and Facility-wide AREEs. This report presents a summary of findings for each AREE and recommendations for further action.

  14. Fractionation distribution and preliminary ecological risk assessment of As, Hg and Cd in ornithogenic sediments from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica.

    PubMed

    Lou, Chuangneng; Liu, Xiaodong; Nie, Yaguang; Emslie, Steven D

    2015-12-15

    To evaluate mobility of toxic elements and their potential ecological risk caused by seabird biovectors, the fractionation distributions of arsenic (As), mercury (Hg) and cadmium (Cd) were investigated in three ornithogenic sediment profiles from the Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. The results show residual As holds a dominant position, and Hg mainly derives from residual, organic matter-bound and humic acid-bound fractions, indicating weak mobility of As and Hg. However, exchangeable Cd occupies a considerable proportion in studied samples, suggesting Cd has strong mobility. The preliminary evaluation of Sediment Quality Guidelines (SGQs) shows adverse biological effects may occur occasionally for As and Cd, and rarely for Hg. Using Risk Assessment Code (RAC), the ecological risk is assessed at moderate, low and very high for As, Hg and Cd pollution, respectively. Organic matter derived from guano is the main factor controlling the mobility of Hg and Cd through adsorption and complexation. PMID:26322729

  15. Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    SciTech Connect

    Sample, B.E.; Baron, L.A.; Jackson, B.L.

    1995-08-01

    Historically, ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites [such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)], has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source operable unit. Consequently the species that are generally considered are those with home ranges small enough such that multiple individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the contaminated site. This approach is adequate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination that only provide habitat for species with limited requirements. This approach is not adequate however for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. Because wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites they may be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a particular contaminated site by wide-ranging species will be dependent upon the amount of suitable habitat available at that site. Therefore to adequately evaluate risks to wide-ranging species at the ORR-wide scale, the use of multiple contaminated sites must be weighted by the amount of suitable habitat on OUs. This reservation-wide ecological risk assessment is intended to identify which endpoints are significantly at risk; which contaminants are responsible for this risk; and which OUs significantly contribute to risk.

  16. Preliminary Hazards Assessments for Space Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems Mechanisms to Quantitatively Ascertain and Address Launch and Operational Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenard, R.

    2002-01-01

    Architectures are analyzed based on several figures of merit, including mass transported to Mars and samples transported from Mars to Earth, potential to reduce Earth contamination, sites on MArs visited, trip time and potential cost trades.A technological variant of a commercial vehicle for near-Earth missions is used as the nuclear electric propulsion system baseline. Several types of Mars landing and ascent vehicles are proposed and assessed.Technology approaches are assessed and analyzed to compare risk to a conventionally fueled Mars Sample Return concept. Also compared are solar electric propelled missions to ascertain cost saving or advantages. Various mission departure dates will be proposed and analyzed.

  17. Ecological risk, source and preliminary assessment of metals in the surface sediments of Chabahar Bay, Oman Sea.

    PubMed

    Agah, Homira; Saleh, Abolfazl; Bastami, Kazem Darvish; Fumani, Neda Sheijooni

    2016-06-15

    In this study, concentrations of Aluminum (Al), Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Vanadium (V), Zinc (Zn), Arsenic (As), Cobalt (Co) and lead (Pb) in the surface sediments from Chabahar Bay were studied to assess the degree of heavy metal pollution as a consequence of natural and anthropogenic sources. Metal contents in the sediments were observed in the order of: Al>Fe>Cr>V>Ni>Zn>Cu>As>Pb>Co. According to enrichment factor (EF), Arsenic was higher than 1.5 at some sites, indicating anthropogenic inputs. Contents of Ni, As and Cr in the some sampling sites were higher than sediment quality guideline implying adverse impacts of these metals. Based on potential ecological risk (PER), the Chabahar Bay had low ecological risk. PMID:27038881

  18. Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

    1997-02-01

    The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

  19. Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

    2016-08-01

    Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis. PMID:27444184

  20. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. . Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz 11 space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safely assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the US with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  1. Topaz II preliminary safety assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C. ); Standley, V. ); Voss, S.S. ); Haskin, E. )

    1993-01-10

    The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) decided to investigate the possibility of launching a Russian Topaz II space nuclear power system. A preliminary safety assessment was conducted to determine whether or not a space mission could be conducted safely and within budget constraints. As part of this assessment, a safety policy and safety functional requirements were developed to guide both the safety assessment and future Topaz II activities. A review of the Russian flight safety program was conducted and documented. Our preliminary safety assessment included a top level event tree, neutronic analysis of normal and accident configurations, an evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity, a reentry and disposal analysis, and analysis of postulated launch abort impact accidents, and an analysis of postulated propellant fire and explosion accidents. Based on the assessment, it appears that it will be possible to safely launch the Topaz II system in the U.S. with some possible system modifications. The principal system modifications will probably include design changes to preclude water flooded criticality and to assure intact reentry.

  2. RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment of mixtures of environmental pollutants has become a subject of increasing public and regulatory concern. ypically, assessment of mixtures has been based on aggregating the risks associated with the individual constituents of the mixture. his approach does not con...

  3. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  4. Teaching Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oravec, Jo Ann

    2000-01-01

    Risk management training cannot prevent hazards, but can help students learn to deal with them more efficiently. A risk-assessment and risk-communication approach to dealing with computer problems can be applied in the business classroom. (JOW)

  5. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  6. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

  7. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  8. Preliminary Hazards Assessment: Iron disulfide purification system

    SciTech Connect

    1991-07-30

    A process for the purification (washing) of iron disulfide (FeS{sub 2}) powder is conducted in the Northeast corner (Area 353) of the main plant building (Building 100). This location is about 130 feet from the fenced boundary of the Partnership School/Child Development Center. In the first steps of the process, raw iron disulfide powder is ground and separated by particle size. The ground and sized powder is then purified in a three-step acid washing process using both hydrochloric acid (HCI) and hydrofluoric (HF) acid. The iron disulfide process is an intermittent batch process conducted four to eight times a year. This study is a Preliminary Hazards Assessment (PHA) to assess the hazards associated with the iron disulfide process. This is a preliminary study and will be used to determine if additional safety analysis is necessary. The scope of the PHA includes assessment of the process steps of grinding, size classification, and purification. The purpose is to identify major hazards and determine if the current and newly added safeguards are adequate for operation. The PHA also lists recommendations for additional safety features that should be added to reduce the risks of operation.

  9. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  10. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  11. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  12. A preliminary risk assessment of potential exposure to naturally occurring estrogens from Beijing (China) market milk products.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Mi, Xiaoxia; Yuan, Yuwei; Chen, Gang; Ren, Li; Wang, Kaiqiang; Zhu, Dan; Qian, Yongzhong

    2014-09-01

    This study was conducted to determine the occurrence of the natural steroid hormones estrone (E1), 17α-estradiol (αE2), 17β-estradiol (βE2) and estriol (E3) in 38 commercial milk samples obtained from markets in Beijing, China. Liquid Chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was employed to determine estrogens levels. The concentrations of E1, αE2, βE2 and E3 in different milk products varied from 0-146.12 ng/L, 0-70.12 ng/L, 0-31.85 ng/L to 0-2.18 ng/L, respectively. We compared exposures to estrogens through milk consumption with acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) and threshold for toxicological concern (TTC) to determine whether estrogen intakes from milk consumption are larger or smaller than the toxicity-based benchmarks. The combined margin of safety MOS (MOST) for total estrogens are about 72-99, 118-161, 539-1104, for 2-4, 4-7 year-old residential children, and adults, respectively. The lowest MOST for children of 2-4 years old result from comparing total of estrogens with the lowest TTC value (0.15 μg/person/day) (MOS=3.5). The MOS values suggest that the individual and total estrogens that may present in milk are not causing a health risk for the local residents, including young children. PMID:24910459

  13. Radioactively contaminated areas: Bioindicator species and biomarkers of effect in an early warning scheme for a preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lourenço, Joana; Mendo, Sónia; Pereira, Ruth

    2016-11-01

    Concerns about the impacts on public health and on the natural environment have been raised regarding the full range of operational activities related to uranium mining and the rest of the nuclear fuel cycle (including nuclear accidents), nuclear tests and depleted uranium from military ammunitions. However, the environmental impacts of such activities, as well as their ecotoxicological/toxicological profile, are still poorly studied. Herein, it is discussed if organisms can be used as bioindicators of human health effects, posed by lifetime exposure to radioactively contaminated areas. To do so, information was gathered from several studies performed on vertebrates, invertebrate species and humans, living in these contaminated areas. The retrieved information was compared, to determine which are the most used bioindicators and biomarkers and also the similarities between human and non-human biota responses. The data evaluated are used to support the proposal for an early warning scheme, based on bioindicator species and on the most sensitive and commonly shared biomarkers, to perform a screening evaluation of radioactively contaminated sites. This scheme could be used to support decision-making for a deeper evaluation of risks to human health, making it possible to screen a large number of areas, without disturbing and alarming local populations. PMID:27343869

  14. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  15. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecological risk assessment evolves, it is moving beyond focus on single species toward addressing multiple species and their interactions, and from assessing effects of simple chemical toxicity to the cumulative impacts of multiple interacting chemical, physical, and biologica...

  16. Preliminary assessment of the safety of IFMIF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, N. P.; Brañas, B.; Eriksson, E.; Natalizio, A.; Pinna, T.; Rodríguez-Rodrigo, L.; Ciattaglia, S.; Lässer, R.

    2007-08-01

    The International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) is a planned high-energy neutron source for the testing of candidate materials for future fusion power plants. Safety studies performed during the various stages of the conceptual design of IFMIF have been brought together in a preliminary assessment of the safety of IFMIF, identifying the principal hazards and the means to prevent or mitigate them. The design is based on dual high-energy deuteron accelerators delivering beams onto a flowing lithium target, in which neutrons are produced through a d-Li stripping reaction. The neutrons irradiate material samples in controlled conditions in a test cell. In all these systems, potential hazards arise, but analyses show that no postulated off-normal event can result in a significant risk of harm to the public. However, care must be taken in forthcoming detailed design development to minimise occupational radiation exposure during IFMIF operation and maintenance.

  17. Diabetic foot risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Woodbury, M Gail

    2016-05-01

    Diabetes is a serious chronic disease that results in foot complications for many people world-wide. In 2014, the World Health Organization estimated the global prevalence of diabetes in adults to be 9%. To ascertain the risk that an individual patient might develop a diabetic foot ulcer that could lead to an amputation, clinicians are strongly encouraged to perform a risk assessment. Monteiro-Soares and Dinis-Ribeiro have presented a new DIAbetic FOot Risk Assessment with the acronym DIAFORA. It is different from other risk assessments in that it predicts the risk of developing both diabetic foot ulcers and amputation specifically. The risk variables were derived by regression analysis based on a data set of 293 patients from a high-risk setting, a Hospital Diabetic Foot Clinic, who had diabetes and a diabetic foot ulcers. Clear descriptions of the risk variables are provided as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the risk categories. As an added benefit, likelihood ratios are provided that will help clinicians determine the risk of amputation for individual patients. Having a risk assessment form is important for clinician use and examples exist. A question is raised about the effectiveness of risk assessment and how effectiveness might be determined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26825436

  18. Preliminary ecological risk assessment of butylparaben and benzylparaben -1. Removal efficiency in wastewater treatment, acute/chronic toxicity for aquatic organisms, and effects on medaka gene expression.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Mikako; Hirata, Yoshiko; Nakamura, Yuki; Nakamura, Yudai; Kitani, Chise; Sekizawa, Jun; Uchida, Masaya; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Kagami, Yoshihiro; Koshio, Masaaki; Hirai, Narisato; Tatarazako, Norihisa

    2007-01-01

    Butylparaben and benzylparaben, used as preservatives mainly in cosmetic products, have recently been found to be weakly estrogenic. Batch activated-sludge treatment and batch chlorination were carried out to roughly determine the removal efficiency of a wastewater treatment plant. Combining the removal efficiency with the estimated annual consumption and the unaltered excretion ratio, the maximum predicted environmental concentration (PEC) was estimated. Conventional acute/chronic toxicity tests were conducted using Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), daphnia (Daphnia magna), and green algae (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) for n-butylparaben, i-butylparaben, and benzylparaben. Medaka vitellogenin assays were also conducted for the three compounds and DNA microarray analysis was carried out to examine the effects of benzylparaben on gene expression. The plasma vitellogenin concentration of male medaka increased for concentrations of 200, 100, and 100 microg L(-1) n-butylparaben, i-butylparaben, and benzylparaben for 14 days, respectively, while the expression levels of genes encoding proteins such as p53, cytochrome P450 3A40, and choriogenin-L increased for concentrations higher than 4 microg L(-1) of benzylparaben. Furthermore, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was calculated using the lethal or effect concentration 50 (LC50 or EC50) values and no-effect concentrations (NOECs) obtained in the toxicity tests for these compounds. The maximum concentrations found in the aquatic environment or sewage effluent (MEC eff) were used to carry out preliminary environmental risk assessment. The calculated MEC/PNEC ratio suggests the necessity of further study such as a more detailed large-scale monitoring and chronic toxicity tests including reproduction inhibition and endocrine disruption. PMID:18382416

  19. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  20. Development of a 4-NQO toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds detected by the Ames II test in UV/H₂O₂ water treatment samples.

    PubMed

    Martijn, Bram J; Van Rompay, An R; Penders, Eric J M; Alharbi, Yousif; Baggelaar, Paul K; Kruithof, Joop C; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-02-01

    An approach to enable a preliminary risk assessment of unknown genotoxic compounds formed by MP UV/H2O2 treatment of nitrate rich water, is described. Since the identity and concentration of specific genotoxic compounds is not established yet, a compound specific risk assessment cannot be performed. This limitation is circumvented by introducing a toxic equivalency factor, converting the concentration of unknown genotoxic compounds expressed by an Ames II test response into equivalent concentrations of 4-nitroquinoline oxide (4-NQO), to enable a preliminary risk assessment. Based on the obtained 4-NQO equivalent concentrations for the tested water samples and 4-NQO carcinogenicity data, an indication of the associated risk of the by MP UV/H2O2 treatment produced nitrated genotoxic compounds is obtained via the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Based on a carcinogen study by Tang et al. (2004), a body weight of 70 kg and a drinking water consumption of 2 L per day, the 4-NQO equivalent concentration should not exceed 80 ng/L associated with a negligible risk. Application of this approach on samples from MP UV/H2O2 treated water of a full scale drinking water production facility, a 4-NQO equivalent concentration of 107 ng/L was established. These results indicate a safety concern in case this water would be distributed as drinking water without further post treatment. PMID:26378870

  1. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  2. A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Hung, C L H; Xu, Y; Lam, J C W; Connell, D W; Lam, M H W; Nicholson, S; Richardson, B J; Lam, P K S

    2006-11-01

    The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation. PMID:16516360

  3. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Grego

    2004-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) determines the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. This viewgraph presentation introduces the prerequisites, probability distribution curves, special conditions, calculations, and results analysis for SRA.

  6. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  7. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  8. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  9. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  10. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  11. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  12. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  13. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk. 11.25 Section 11.25 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.25 Preassessment screen—preliminary identification of...

  14. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk. 11.25 Section 11.25 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.25 Preassessment screen—preliminary identification of...

  15. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk. 11.25 Section 11.25 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.25 Preassessment screen—preliminary identification of...

  16. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:20087690

  17. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  18. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  19. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    SciTech Connect

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design.

  20. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  1. Preliminary Assessment of Turbomachinery Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazumder, Quamrul H.

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses different CFD codes developed and currently being used at Glenn Research Center to predict turbomachinery fluid flow and heat transfer behavior. This report will consider the following codes: APNASA, TURBO, GlennHT, H3D, and SWIFT. Each code will be described separately in the following section with their current modeling capabilities, level of validation, pre/post processing, and future development and validation requirements. This report addresses only previously published and validations of the codes. However, the codes have been further developed to extend the capabilities of the codes.

  2. A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

    2010-02-01

    A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

  3. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-03-28

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment. PMID:26666966

  4. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  5. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  6. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  7. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  8. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  9. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  10. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  11. Temporal trends in the levels of metals, PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator. Preliminary assessment of human health risks.

    PubMed

    Rovira, Joaquim; Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2015-09-01

    The concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and metals were determined in soil and air samples collected near a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) located in Mataró (Catalonia, Spain), being the health risks for the population living in the vicinity of the facility subsequently assessed. We also established the temporal trends with respect to previous surveys performed in the same zone. In general terms, the highest environmental levels of the pollutants were found in the city of Mataró and were independent on the distance to the MSWI. Soil levels of metals did not show temporal variations between the current and previous campaigns. However, the concentrations of metals in air samples collected in 2011 and 2013, were lower than those found in our 2008 survey. Regarding PCDD/Fs and PCBs, no differences were noted between the levels of the current survey and those corresponding to 2008. Anyhow, the concentrations of metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs in soils and air did not exceed the reference values established by regulatory organizations, being also in the low range of other similar studies recently reported. Finally, the human non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks due to exposure to metals, PCDD/Fs, and PCBs, were, for the population living in the neighborhood of the MSWI, considered as acceptable according to international standards. PMID:26130170

  12. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. PMID:23982989

  13. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  14. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  15. Artificial-turf playing fields: contents of metals, PAHs, PCBs, PCDDs and PCDFs, inhalation exposure to PAHs and related preliminary risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Menichini, Edoardo; Abate, Vittorio; Attias, Leonello; De Luca, Silvia; di Domenico, Alessandro; Fochi, Igor; Forte, Giovanni; Iacovella, Nicola; Iamiceli, Anna Laura; Izzo, Paolo; Merli, Franco; Bocca, Beatrice

    2011-11-01

    The artificial-turf granulates made from recycled rubber waste are of health concern due the possible exposure of users to dangerous substances present in the rubber, and especially to PAHs. In this work, we determined the contents of PAHs, metals, non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs), PCDDs and PCDFs in granulates, and PAH concentrations in air during the use of the field. The purposes were to identify some potential chemical risks and to roughly assess the risk associated with inhalation exposure to PAHs. Rubber granulates were collected from 13 Italian fields and analysed for 25 metals and nine PAHs. One further granulate was analysed for NDL-PCBs, PCDDs, PCDFs and 13 PAHs. Air samples were collected on filter at two fields, using respectively a high volume static sampler close to the athletes and personal samplers worn by the athletes, and at background locations outside the fields. In the absence of specific quality standards, we evaluated the measured contents with respect to the Italian standards for soils to be reclaimed as green areas. Zn concentrations (1 to 19 g/kg) and BaP concentrations (0.02 to 11 mg/kg) in granulates largely exceeded the pertinent standards, up to two orders of magnitude. No association between the origin of the recycled rubber and the contents of PAHs and metals was observed. The sums of NDL-PCBs and WHO-TE PCDDs+PCDFs were, respectively, 0.18 and 0.67×10(-5) mg/kg. The increased BaP concentrations in air, due to the use of the field, varied approximately from <0.01 to 0.4 ng/m(3), the latter referring to worst-case conditions as to the release of particle-bound PAHs. Based on the 0.4 ng/m(3) concentration, an excess lifetime cancer risk of 1×10(-6) was calculated for an intense 30-year activity. PMID:21907387

  16. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  17. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building`s history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  18. Preliminary assessment of risk from toxic materials that might be mobilized in the decommissioning of Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenblatt, D.H.; Brubaker, K.L.

    1991-12-01

    Aberdeen Proving Ground Building E5032 is scheduled for decommissioning, that is, for demolition. Because the building was formerly used for small-scale operations with incendiary and toxic chemical agents, it presents unusual concerns for occupational and public health safety during the demolition. For this reason, an anticipatory risk assessment was conducted, taking into consideration the building's history, properties of potential residual contaminants (particularly chemical and incendiary agents), and assumptions relating to meteorological conditions and envisioned modes of demolition. Safe maximum levels in concrete floors for the worst case were estimated to be: white phosphorus, 3200 mg/kg; mustard, 94 mg/kg; nerve agent GA (tabun), 6 mg/kg; cyanide, 500 mg/kg; and sulfide, 1400 mg/kg. These values will serve as planning guidance for the activities to follow. It is emphasized that the estimates must be reviewed, and perhaps revised, after sampling and analysis are completed, the demolition methodology is chosen, and dust emissions are measured under operating conditions.

  19. Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

  20. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  1. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  2. EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT: INPUT INTO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The validity of a risk assessment can be no better than that of the exposure assessment upon which it is based. he general paucity of relevant exposure data, combined with the limited appreciation by most risk assessors of the critical dimensions and metrics of exposure, often le...

  3. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  5. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  6. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  7. Guidance for performing preliminary assessments under CERCLA

    SciTech Connect

    1991-09-01

    EPA headquarters and a national site assessment workgroup produced this guidance for Regional, State, and contractor staff who manage or perform preliminary assessments (PAs). EPA has focused this guidance on the types of sites and site conditions most commonly encountered. The PA approach described in this guidance is generally applicable to a wide variety of sites. However, because of the variability among sites, the amount of information available, and the level of investigative effort required, it is not possible to provide guidance that is equally applicable to all sites. PA investigators should recognize this and be aware that variation from this guidance may be necessary for some sites, particularly for PAs performed at Federal facilities, PAs conducted under EPA`s Environmental Priorities Initiative (EPI), and PAs at sites that have previously been extensively investigated by EPA or others. The purpose of this guidance is to provide instructions for conducting a PA and reporting results. This guidance discusses the information required to evaluate a site and how to obtain it, how to score a site, and reporting requirements. This document also provides guidelines and instruction on PA evaluation, scoring, and the use of standard PA scoresheets. The overall goal of this guidance is to assist PA investigators in conducting high-quality assessments that result in correct site screening or further action recommendations on a nationally consistent basis.

  8. Topographical Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  9. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  10. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  11. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  12. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  13. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  14. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  15. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive /sup 131/I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of /sup 131/I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10/sup 6/ person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10/sup 7/ person-rem (2 x 10/sup 5/ Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs.

  16. 44 CFR 206.33 - Preliminary damage assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ....33 Preliminary damage assessment. The preliminary damage assessment (PDA) process is a mechanism used... personnel resources by performing a joint PDA prior to the initiation of a Governor's request, as follows... PDA and to ensure that the participants receive timely notification concerning the schedule. A...

  17. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  18. REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

  19. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  20. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  1. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  3. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  4. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania; Babcock, Doosan; Freeman, Charles; Bearden, Mark; Whyatt, Greg; Liu, Kun; Frimpong, Reynolds; Lu, Kunlei; Salmon, Sonja; House, Alan; Yarborough, Erin

    2014-12-31

    The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTech’s AspenPlus® software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorber off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.

  5. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  6. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented. PMID:24916678

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-...

  8. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  9. ADVANCED PESTICIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulating chemicals is necessary in modern agriculture, silviculture, and public health vector control operations. The task for environmental risk assessment is to delineate the food chain contamination and ecological v...

  10. RISK ASSESSMENT OF WASTEWATER DISINFECTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk assessment data base is presented for several waste-water disinfection alternatives, including chlorination, ozonation, chlorination/dechlorination, and ultraviolet radiation. The data base covers hazards and consequences related to onsite use and transportation of the dis...

  11. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  12. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  13. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  14. Risk: assessment, acceptability and management

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-01-01

    Risk assessment, particularly of risks to the public health resulting from government and industry decisions, is discussed. Cost/benefit analysis as applied to such situations as human deaths and the contracting of cancer by humans is discussed. The role of government regulations and standards is discussed.

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. Using Simulated Patients to Train Physicians in Sexual Risk Assessment and Risk Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzalez-Willis, Angela; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The objectives of this preliminary study were to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of using trained simulated patient instructors (N=6) as an office-based continuing medical education method and to assess the current sexually transmitted diseases/human immunodeficiency virus risk assessment and counseling practices of primary care…

  17. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  18. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  19. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  20. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  1. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  2. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  3. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  4. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  5. Preliminary Investigation of a Video-Based Stimulus Preference Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snyder, Katie; Higbee, Thomas S.; Dayton, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Video clips may be an effective format for presenting complex stimuli in preference assessments. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the correspondence between preference hierarchies generated from preference assessments that included either toys or videos of the toys. The top-ranked item corresponded in both assessments for 5 of the 6…

  6. Space shuttle operational risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare

    1996-03-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle system has recently been completed. This year-long effort represents a development resulting from seven years of application of risk technology to the Space Shuttle. These applications were initiated by NASA shortly after the Challenger accident as recommended by the Rogers and Slay Commission reports. The current effort is the first integrated quantitative assessment of the risk of the loss of the shuttle vehicle from 3 seconds prior to liftoff to wheel-stop at mission end. The study which was conducted under the direction of NASA's Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance office at Johnson Spaceflight Center focused on shuttle operational risk but included consideration of all the shuttle flight and test history since the beginning of the program through Mission 67 in July of 1994.

  7. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, GO

    2001-08-15

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  8. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  9. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  10. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  11. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strunz, G.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Mück, M.; Riedlinger, T.; Mehl, H.; Dech, S.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.; Harjono, H.; Anwar, H. Z.; Sumaryono; Khomarudin, R. M.; Muhari, A.

    2011-01-01

    In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  12. Benzidine dihydrochloride: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Littlefield, N A; Nelson, C J; Gaylor, D W

    1984-02-01

    Benzidine, recognized as a bladder carcinogen in man and as a liver carcinogen in experimental animals, is the chemical basis of as many as 200 commercial dyes. Physiological processes can metabolize these dyes to release benzidine, thereby creating a potential exposure hazard. To assess this hazard, both sexes of F1 hybrid (genetically homogeneous) and monohybrid (genetically heterogeneous) mice from a BALB/c male and C57BL/6 female cross were exposed for their respective lifespans to benzidine dihydrochloride in their drinking water at concentrations of 0, 30, 40, 60, 80, 120, and 160 ppm for males, and 0, 20, 30, 40, 60, 80, and 120 ppm for females. Animals were removed from the study when they were dead or moribund. This study was terminated after 33 months of exposure. Using the endpoint of hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas, the Armitage Doll multistage model was used to describe the tumor rates in the experimental dose range and to obtain the upper confidence level on tumor rates. Linear interpolation was used between zero dose and the upper confidence level of the lowest experimental dosage for predicting potential low dose tumor rates. Dose-response effects on body weight, survival, and liver neoplasms were noted in both stocks. For each of the endpoints, the females were more susceptible than males and the F1 (homogeneous) stock was more susceptible than the monohybrid cross (heterogeneous). The calculated virtually "safe" dose predicted to produce less than one per million F1 female mice with a liver tumor is 0.045 ppb. One part per billion of benzidine dihydrochloride in the drinking water of these mice is estimated to produce liver tumors in less than 2.23 mice per 100,000 population. PMID:6363187

  13. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  15. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  16. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  17. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  18. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  2. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  5. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  6. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  7. Nuclear weapon system risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, D.D.

    1993-11-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a process for evaluating hazardous operations by considering what can go wrong, the likelihood of these undesired events, and the resultant consequences. Techniques used in PRA originated in the 1960s. Although there were early exploratory applications to nuclear weapons and other technologies, the first major application of these techniques was in the Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400, {sup 1} in which the risks of nuclear power accidents were thoroughly investigated for the first time. Recently, these techniques have begun to be adapted to nuclear weapon system applications. This report discusses this application to nuclear weapon systems.

  8. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned

    SciTech Connect

    DeShields, B.R.; Stelljes, M.E.; Hawkins, E.T.; Alsop, W.R.

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of experience with ecological risk assessments and regulatory involvement in the process, a number of lessons can be learned relating to design, implementation, and reporting of ecological risk assessments. A number of case studies will be presented in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches. Issues surrounding the selection of assessment and measurement endpoints, receptors, accuracy of models when compared with field data, bioavailability of chemicals, selection of appropriate reference sites, availability of relevant toxicological data, utility of bioassays, and accounting for temporal and seasonal variability, species adaptation, and ecological relevance will be examined. In addition, effective ways of dealing with limitations such as duration and cost of the assessments will be evaluated. Case studies ranging from large, complex Superfund sites to small, relatively simplistic sites will be included. By scrutinizing the approaches used and the outcomes of these case studies, insight can be gained that will allow risk assessors to deal with limitations and to focus future efforts to provide useful and relevant information and sound scientifically-based results.

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  10. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  11. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  12. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  13. Pilot Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation of START:AV Assessments in Secure Juvenile Correctional Facilities.

    PubMed

    Desmarais, Sarah L; Sellers, Brian G; Viljoen, Jodi L; Cruise, Keith R; Nicholls, Tonia L; Dvoskin, Joel A

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a new structured professional judgment guide for assessing short-term risks in adolescents. The scheme may be distinguished from other youth risk assessment and treatment planning instruments by its inclusion of 23 dynamic factors that are each rated for both vulnerability and strength. In addition, START:AV is also unique in that it focuses on multiple adverse outcomes-namely, violence, self-harm, suicide, unauthorized leave, substance abuse, self-neglect, victimization, and general offending-over the short-term (i.e., weeks to months) rather than long-term (i.e., years). This paper describes a pilot implementation and preliminary evaluation of START:AV in three secure juvenile correctional facilities in the southern United States. Specifically, we examined the descriptive characteristics and psychometric properties of START:AV assessments completed by 21 case managers on 291 adolescent offenders (250 boys and 41 girls) at the time of admission. Results provide preliminary support for the feasibility of completing START:AV assessments as part of routine practice. Findings also highlight differences in the characteristics of START:AV assessments for boys and girls and differential associations between the eight START:AV risk domains. Though results are promising, further research is needed to establish the reliability and validity of START:AV assessments completed in the field. PMID:23316116

  14. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  15. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  16. Preliminary assessment of pump IST effectiveness

    SciTech Connect

    DiBiasio, A.; Grove, E.; Carbonaro, J.

    1994-06-01

    A preliminary review of Inservice Testing (IST) effectiveness for Code Class 1, 2, and 3 pumps at nuclear power plants was performed. IST requirements are specified by ASME Section XI, and the Operations and Maintenance Standard (OM Part 6). The INPO NPRDS database was used to provide failure reports for these components for 1988 to 1992. This time frame coincides with the issuance of Generic Letter 89-04, which resulted in a more consistent application of the requirements by the licensees. For this time period, 2585 pump failures were reported. A review of these failures indicated that the majority (71.6%) were due to external leakage, and were excluded from this study since these events typically do not affect pump operability and are not detected by the measurement of IST parameters. Of the remaining 733 events, a review was performed to identify the primary failure causes, failure modes, and method of detection. Plant testing programs, consisting of IST, surveillance testing, and special testing, detected approximately 40% of these occurrences. Others were detected through operational abnormalities, routine and incidental observations, alarms, and while performing maintenance. This paper provides a discussion of the results of the study.

  17. Analytical Chemistry Core Capability Assessment - Preliminary Report

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, Mary E.; Farish, Thomas J.

    2012-05-16

    The concept of 'core capability' can be nebulous one. Even at a fairly specific level, where core capability equals maintaining essential services, it is highly dependent upon the perspective of the requestor. Samples are submitted to analytical services because the requesters do not have the capability to conduct adequate analyses themselves. Some requests are for general chemical information in support of R and D, process control, or process improvement. Many analyses, however, are part of a product certification package and must comply with higher-level customer quality assurance requirements. So which services are essential to that customer - just those for product certification? Does the customer also (indirectly) need services that support process control and improvement? And what is the timeframe? Capability is often expressed in terms of the currently utilized procedures, and most programmatic customers can only plan a few years out, at best. But should core capability consider the long term where new technologies, aging facilities, and personnel replacements must be considered? These questions, and a multitude of others, explain why attempts to gain long-term consensus on the definition of core capability have consistently failed. This preliminary report will not try to define core capability for any specific program or set of programs. Instead, it will try to address the underlying concerns that drive the desire to determine core capability. Essentially, programmatic customers want to be able to call upon analytical chemistry services to provide all the assays they need, and they don't want to pay for analytical chemistry services they don't currently use (or use infrequently). This report will focus on explaining how the current analytical capabilities and methods evolved to serve a variety of needs with a focus on why some analytes have multiple analytical techniques, and what determines the infrastructure for these analyses. This information will be

  18. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AFTERBURNER COMBUSTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of an environmental assessment of afterburner control systems (fume incinerators). It consisted of a review of available data and literature, and the planning of a subsequent experimental program, intended to consist of laboratory and/or field emission me...

  19. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real problems, and…

  20. Religious History in the Schools: A Preliminary Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bigham, Darrel E.

    This paper is a preliminary assessment and proposed plan of action resulting from a discussion of the state of religious history in Indiana schools. A group of teachers, professors, and administrators met informally in these discussions to identify opportunities for change. The group recognized that religion has been a major force in history, and…

  1. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  2. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  3. Preliminary energy sector assessments of Jamaica. Volume I: executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    Because heavy dependence on costly imported fuel has greatly inhibited Jamaica's economic development, USAID/Jamaica and the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) sponsored a preliminary energy assessment to identify and develop viable alternative energy options. Specialized studies included solar energy (commercial/industrial and agricultural), biogas applications, energy conversion from waste, a coal prefeasibility study, and an electric utility rate analysis. The entire assessment is summarized at length.

  4. Human factors and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Minhali, A.

    1996-11-01

    A case study was presented in the 1994 Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC, 94) which discussed the importance of investigating human factors in the design of a high integrity protection system (HIPS) to be installed on an offshore high pressure gas platform, (SPE reference ADSPE 80). This paper will follow up on the design changes, installation and operation of the HIPS with emphasis on practical implications as a result of improper integration of human factors in the system reliability and risk assessment studies.

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  6. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Preassessment screen-preliminary... screen—preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk. (a) Preliminary identification of... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  7. 43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Preassessment screen-preliminary... screen—preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk. (a) Preliminary identification of... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include,...

  8. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  9. Preliminary results of Aruba wind resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Guda, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    As part of a project to assess the possibilities for wind energy utilitization in the Dutch Antilles islands, windspeed and -direction data were collected in Aruba for two years, from March 1992 to February 1994. Five sites that were estimated to be representative for the islands` wind regimes, were monitored during this period: two sites on the windward coast, one east and one west; two inland sites, again one east and one west, and one site topping the cliffs overlooking the eastern windward coast. Additionally, twenty years worth of data were analyzed for the reference site at the airport, which is in the middle part of the island, on the leeward coast. Correlation calculations between these data and the data for the project sites were performed, in order to establish a methodology for estimating the long-term behavior of the wind regimes at these sites. 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Preliminary Functional Assessment of a Multigrasp Myoelectric Prosthesis

    PubMed Central

    Dalley, Skyler A.; Bennett, Daniel A.; Goldfarb, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The authors have previously described a multigrasp hand prosthesis prototype, and a two-site surface EMG based multigrasp control interface for its control. In this paper, the authors present a preliminary assessment of the efficacy of the prosthesis and multigrasp controller in performing tasks requiring interaction and manipulation. The authors use as a performance measure the Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure (SHAP), which entails manipulation of various objects designed to emulate activities of daily living, and provides a set of scores that indicate level of functionality in various types of hand function. In this preliminary assessment, a single non-amputee subject performed the SHAP while wearing the multigrasp prosthesis via an able-bodied adaptor. The results from this testing are presented, and compared to recently published SHAP results obtained with commercially available single-grasp and multigrasp prosthetic hands. PMID:23366847

  11. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  12. Preliminary Assessment of Overweight Mainline Vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Siekmann, Adam; Capps, Gary J; Lascurain, Mary Beth

    2011-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration requested information regarding overweight and oversized vehicle traffic entering inspection stations (ISs) in order to develop strategies for future research efforts and possibly help guide regulatory issues involving overweight commercial motor vehicles (CMVs). For a period of one month, inspection stations in Knox County and Greene County, Tennessee, recorded overweight and oversized vehicles that entered these ISs. During this period, 435 CMVs were recorded using an electronic form filled out by enforcement personnel at the IS. Of the 435 CMVs recorded, 381 had weight information documented with them. The majority (52.2%) of the vehicles recorded were five-axle combination vehicles, and 50.6% of all the vehicles were permitted to operate above the legal weight limit in Tennessee, which is 80,000 lb for vehicles with five or more axles. Only 16.8% of the CMVs recorded were overweight gross (11.5% of permitted vehicles) and 54.1% were overweight on an axle group. The low percentage of overweight gross CMVs was because only 45 of the vehicles over 80,000 lb. were not permitted. On average, axles that were overweight were 2,000 lb. over the legal limit for an axle or group of axles. Of the vehicles recorded, 172 vehicles were given a North American Standard (NAS) inspection during the assessment. Of those, 69% of the inspections were driver-only inspections (Level III) and only 25% of the inspections had a vehicle component (such as a Level I or Level II). The remaining 6% of inspections did not have valid Aspen numbers; the type of was inspection unknown. Data collected on the types of trailers of each vehicle showed that about half of the recorded CMVs could realistically be given a Level I (full vehicle and driver) inspection; this estimate was solely based on trailer type. Enforcement personnel at ISs without an inspection pit have difficulty fully inspecting certain vehicles due to low clearance below the trailer

  13. Estimated soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    LaGoy, P.K.

    1987-09-01

    Assessing the risks to human health posed by contaminants present in soil requires an estimate of likely soil ingestion rates. In the past, direct measurements of soil ingestion were not available and risk assessors were forced to estimate soil ingestion rates based on observations of mouthing behavior and measurements of soil on hands. Recently, empirical data on soil ingestion rates have become available from two sources. Although preliminary, these data can be used to derive better estimates of soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessments. Estimates of average soil ingestion rates derived in this paper range from 25 to 100 mg/day, depending on the age of the individual at risk. Maximum soil ingestion rates that are unlikely to underestimate exposure range from 100 to 500 mg. A value of 5000 mg/day is considered a reasonable estimate of a maximum single-day exposure for a child with habitual pica. 12 references.

  14. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  15. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  16. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  17. Meteoroid Risk Assessment of Lunar Habitat Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Steven W.; Stallworth, Roderick; Robinson, Jennifer; Stellingwerf, Robert; Engler, Erich

    2006-01-01

    Preliminary analyses have been performed of meteoroid impacts on lunar surface structures built with elements made from in situ materials. The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to simulate impacts, and was validated against hypervelocity impact test results. Impact risk will affect necessary wall thicknesses, depth of burial, and placement of lunar base structures.

  18. Hellsgate Winter Range : Wildlife Mitigation Project. Preliminary Environmental Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1995-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration proposes funding the Hellsgate Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project in cooperation with the Colville Convederated Tribes and Bureau of Indian Affairs. This Preliminary Environmental Assessment examines the potential environmental effects of acquiring and managing property for wildlife and wildlife habitat within a large project area. The Propose action is intended to meet the need for mitigation of wildlife and wild life habitat that was adversely affected by the construction of Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Dams and their reservoirs.

  19. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  20. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  1. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches. PMID:24984514

  2. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  3. DEVELOPMENT OF APPROACHES FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A population focused cumulative health risk assessment of a contaminated site or situation can include the evaluation of toxic risk from multiple chemicals, by multiple pathways, over different time frames of exposure, with multiple sensitive population subgroups, and possibly ot...

  4. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  5. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  6. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  7. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  8. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  9. Practical Education through Risk Assessment Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokai, Akihiro

    Although, the staff for assessing environmental risk of chemicals is required in individual units of industrial sectors, there are very few systemic academic curriculums on risk assessment of chemicals in Japanese institutions of higher education. In order to meet such a social needs, Osaka University opened a limited-period program of environmental risk management for both students and working people in 2005. The author describes the contribution of his experience in offering a course on environmental risk assessment of chemicals as a part of the program. The course afforded students a kind of practical training for risk assessment. This paper also involves what to do for strengthening the education activity of risk assessment.

  10. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  11. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  13. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  14. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  15. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  16. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  17. NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

  18. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  19. DRAFT PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document is part of a continuing, long-term effort to develop Agency-wide ecological risk assessment guidelines for EPA. The goal of the guidelines is to improve the quality and consistency of the Agency's ecological risk assessments. These guidelines move beyond the Agency'...

  1. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  2. Approximate risk assessment prioritizes remedial decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Bergmann, E.P. )

    1993-08-01

    Approximate risk assessment (ARA) is a management tool that prioritizes cost/benefit options for risk reduction decisions. Management needs a method that quantifies how much control is satisfactory for each level of risk reduction. Two risk matrices develop a scheme that estimates the necessary control a unit should implement with its present probability and severity of consequences/disaster. A second risk assessment matrix attaches a dollar value to each failure possibility at various severities. Now HPI operators can see the cost and benefit for each control step contemplated and justify returns based on removing the likelihood of the disaster.

  3. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Caspar, Olivier; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated through natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with an equation which integrates various parameters of hazard and traffic. These are static variables as hazard frequency and number of vehicles crossing the dangerous section. This traditional methodology cannot take into account the dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speeds modifications due to the section sinuosity, slowdowns resulting saturated traffic or creation of vehicles columns in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not addressed with the standard methodologies. Here we show, with the help of a dynamic traffic simulator specially developed for this project, that the variations of traffic greatly influence the risk results. Several sections of an alpine road in Switzerland were analyzed with the method of dynamic risk and compared with the results of the conventional method of risk calculation. It was possible to demonstrate that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections with the decreasing of vehicles speed. It has been highlighted that well positioned traffic lights, outside the risk area, can prevent a risk increase during a construction site, while a column of vehicles located within the danger zone greatly increases the risk. These results demonstrate the importance to consider the traffic in a dynamic way to assess risk to the closest field reality. Thus, recommendations to reduce risk on the roads can be given using a dynamic traffic simulator, modeling interactions between vehicles. Eventually, dynamic risk assessment can also be integrated into existing methodologies that consider only static parameters.

  4. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  5. Preliminary energy sector assessments of Jamaica. Volume II: economic assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    Presented is an economic assessment of the specialized study areas, reviewing recommendations from the specialized studies in relation to each other and to the GOJ's 5-year Development and Energy Sector Plans. After analyzing the effects of these recommendations on Jamaica's energy situation and economy, the recommendations are integrated and prioritized in a proposed Combined Energy Program (CEP) which is recommended for immediate GOJ implementation. Highest priority items include research, testing, training, and tax structures to encourage solar hot water and agricultural drying systems; installation of small- and medium-size biogas plants; and negotiating joint port usage for a possible coal-fired electricity plant.

  6. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  7. Preliminary assessment of fleets covered by the Energy Policy Act

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, P.S.; Davis, S.C.; Wang, M.Q.

    1994-12-31

    To facilitate the goal of decreasing oil imports by 10 percent by the year 2000 and 30 percent by 2010, two sections of the Energy Policy Act encourage and mandate alternative fuel vehicles in the acquisition of fleet vehicles. The first step in estimating the contribution of these mandates toward meeting the aforementioned goal entails identifying affected fleets. This paper presents a preliminary assessment of potential vehicle fleet coverage. Only a limited number of companies in the methanol, ethanol, and hydrogen industries are likely to quality for this mandate. Whereas, many of the oil producers, petroleum refiners, and electricity companies are likely to be regulated.

  8. Preliminary pathway analysis for YMP preclosure biosphere dose assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, D.; Liu, N.; Tappen, J.J.; Tung, C.H.

    1998-05-13

    The preliminary preclosure biosphere dose assessment for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) involves the calculation of a radiation dose to a subsistence farmer living near the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. Eight radionuclides, H-3, Co-60, Kr-85, Sr-90, Ru-106, I-129, Cs-134, and Cs-137, are considered in this study. Radiation doses resulting from unit release rates of these radionuclides are analyzed. Total dose has been broken down into components that result from various exposure pathways. By using this approach, the most important pathways that deliver a radiation dose to a subsistence farmer can be clearly identified.

  9. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  10. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  11. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  12. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K

    2015-09-13

    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides. PMID:26262455

  13. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B.; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. PMID:25804424

  16. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  17. ByMuR model: interaction among risks and uncertainty treatment in long-term multi-hazard/risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selva, J.

    2012-12-01

    Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key point of multi-risk assessments are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous risk hierarchization, which is one of primary output of risk assessments for decision makers. Within the framework of the Italian project "ByMuR - Bayesian Multi-Risk assessment", a formal model (ByMuR model) to assess multi-risk for a target area is under development, aiming (i) to perform multi-risk analyses treating interaction between different hazardous phenomena, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels, and (ii) to explicitly account for all uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) through a Bayesian approach, allowing a meaningful comparison among different risks. The model is meant to be general, but it is targeted to the assessment of volcanic, seismic and tsunami risks for the city of Naples (Italy). Here, it is presented the preliminary development of the ByMuR model. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through illustrative examples, in which the effects of uncertainties and the bias in single-risk estimation induced by the assumption of independence among risks are explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term risk assessments, and thus when multi-risk analyses should be considered in order to provide unbiased risk estimations.

  18. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR COKE OVENS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-m...

  1. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  2. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations. PMID:10765454

  3. Reward learning in pediatric depression and anxiety: Preliminary findings in a high-risk sample

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Bethany H.; Bylsma, Lauren M.; Yaroslavsky, Ilya; Kovacs, Maria; Rottenberg, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Reward learning has been postulated as a critical component of hedonic functioning that predicts depression risk. Reward learning deficits have been established in adults with current depressive disorders, but no prior studies have examined the relationship of reward learning and depression in children. The present study investigated reward learning as a function of familial depression risk and current diagnostic status in a pediatric sample. Method The sample included 204 children of parents with a history of depression (n=86 high-risk offspring) or parents with no history of major mental disorder (n=118 low-risk offspring). Semi-structured clinical interviews were used to establish current mental diagnoses in the children. A modified signal detection task was used to assess reward learning. We tested whether reward learning was impaired in high-risk offspring relative to low-risk offspring. We also tested whether reward learning was impaired in children with current disorders known to blunt hedonic function (depression, social phobia, PTSD, GAD, n=13) compared to children with no disorders and to a psychiatric comparison group with ADHD. Results High- and low-risk youth did not differ in reward learning. However, youth with current anhedonic disorders (depression, social phobia, PTSD, GAD) exhibited blunted reward learning relative to nondisordered youth and those with ADHD. Conclusions Our results are a first demonstration that reward learning deficits are present among youth with disorders known to blunt anhedonic function and that these deficits have some degree of diagnostic specificity. We advocate for future studies to replicate and extend these preliminary findings. PMID:25826304

  4. Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graber, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

  5. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do. PMID:20846169

  6. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  7. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  8. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  9. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  10. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  11. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  12. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  13. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  14. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1986)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1983, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)/National Research Council (NRC) published its report entitled Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. In that report, the NRC recommended that Federal regulatory agencies establish "inference guidelines" to ...

  15. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  16. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  17. MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

  18. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  19. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  20. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  1. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

  2. 2009 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 27-30, 2009 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  3. NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

  4. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  5. FRAMEWORK FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several reports have highlighted the importance of understanding the accumulation of risks from multiple environmental stressors. These include the National Research Council's 1994 report Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment and the 1997 report by the Presidential/Cong...

  6. 2008 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2008 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 14 - 17, 2008 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...

  7. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  8. Preliminary Ecotoxicity and Biodegradability Assessment of Metalworking Fluids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerulová, Kristína; Amcha, Peter; Filická, Slávka

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of activated sludge from sewage treatment plant to degrade selected MWFs (ecotoxicity to bacterial consortium) and to evaluate the ecotoxicity by Lemna minor-higher plant. After evaluating the ecotoxicity, biodegradations rate with activated sludge was assessed on the basis of COD measurement. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity according to OECD 221 by Lemna minor shows effective concentration of Emulzin H at the rate of 81.6 mg l-1, for Ecocool 82.9 mg l-1, for BC 25 about 99.3 mg l-1, and for Dasnobor about 97.3 mg l-1. Preliminary study of measuring the ecotoxicity by bacterial consortium according to OECD 209 (STN EN ISO 8192) shows effective concentration of Blasocut BC 25 at the rate 227.4 mg l-1. According to OECD 302B, the biodegradations level of Emulzin H, Ecocool and BC 25 achieved 80% in 10 days. It can be stated that these MWFs have potential to ultimate degradation, but the statement has to be confirmed by a biodegradability test with other parameters than COD, which exhibits some disadvantages in testing O/W emulsions.

  9. Training for suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M; Berman, Alan L

    2014-10-01

    Suicide and suicidal behaviors are highly associated with psychiatric disorders. Psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment (SRA) is a core competency requirement, many lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation (SRF) sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. An SRA gathers data about observable and reported symptoms, behaviors, and historical factors that are associated with suicide risk and protection, ascertained by way of psychiatric interview; collateral information from family, friends, and medical records; and psychometric scales and/or screening tools. Based on data collected via an SRA, an SRF is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment plans, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the need for a revised training model in SRA and SRF, and proposes a model of training that incorporates the acquisition of skills, relying heavily on case application exercises. PMID:25059537

  10. [Individual risk assessment of caries].

    PubMed

    Schaeken, M J; Mikx, F H

    1992-06-01

    The estimation of individual caries risk factors and the related preventive treatment in the dental practice are discussed. Salivary counts of mutans streptococci and lactobacilli reflect the bacteriological attack (mutans streptococci) and sugar intake (lactobacilli). Caries resistance can be estimated by measurement of the salivary secretion rate and buffer capacity. Treatment of high caries risk patients should be directed against etiological factors. Salivary flow rates and buffer capacity can be stimulated by daily (sugar-free) gum-chewing. For the use of fluoridated toothpaste and sugar intake the dentist is dependent upon the cooperation of the patient. The bacteriological factor in the caries process can be suppressed by application of chlorhexidine varnish. PMID:11820133

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  12. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  13. Preliminary assessment of Fort Hood solar cogeneration plant performance

    SciTech Connect

    Ator, J.

    1981-04-01

    An analysis has been performed to enable a preliminary assessment of the performance that can be expected of a solar thermal cogeneration system designed to serve a selected group of buildings at Fort Hood, Texas. A central receiver system utilizing a molten salts mixture as the receiver coolant, heat transfer fluid, and storage medium is assumed. The system is to supply a large share of the space heating, air conditioning, domestic hot water, and electricity needs of a 20-building Troop Housing Complex. Principal energy loads are graphed and tabulated, and the principal electric parasitic loads are tabulated and the methodology by which they are estimated is reviewed. The plant model and the performance calculations are discussed. Annual energy displacement results are given. (LEW)

  14. A preliminary engineering assessment of the ITER CDA ECH Launcher

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, T.S.; Swain, D.W. ); Sawan, M. )

    1994-10-15

    A preliminary engineering study of the ITER electron cyclotron heating (ECH) launcher configuration proposed by the ITER Conceptual Design Activity (CDA) team has been performed to assess its survivability in the ITER nuclear environment. Potential problem areas are with the vacuum windows, the plasma-facing mirrors, and some of the other high-power waveguide components that are untested in a reactor environment. The study indicates that the CDA design is quite robust, since the mirror power density is relatively low and the windows are well shielded. Although the CDA ECH system is unlikely to be built as proposed, most analysis techniques developed to study this system will apply to future ITER ECH system configurations. The vacuum window is likely to be the most difficult launcher component to develop. Design for a proposed resonant ring for high-power testing of windows using existing lower-power gyrotrons is presented.

  15. A preliminary engineering assessment of the ITER CDA ECH launcher

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, T.S.; Swain, D.W.; Sawan, M.

    1993-06-01

    A preliminary engineering study of the ITER electron cyclotron heating (ECH) launcher configuration proposed by the ITER Conceptual Design Activity (CDA) team has been performed to assess its survivability in the ITER nuclear environment. Potential problem areas are with the vacuum windows, the plasma-facing mirrors, and some of the other high-power waveguide components that are untested in a reactor environment. The study indicates that the CDA design is quite robust, since the mirror power density is relatively low and the windows are well shielded. Although the CDA ECH system is unlikely to be built as proposed, most analysis techniques developed to study this system will apply to future ITER ECH system configurations. The vacuum window is likely to be the most difficult launcher component to develop. Design for a proposed resonant ring for high-power testing of windows using existing lower-power gyrotrons is presented.

  16. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  17. Preliminary assessment of a Ceres Polar Lander mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poncy, J.; Grasset, Olivier; Martinot, V.; Gabriel, Gabriel

    2008-09-01

    The quest for water in all forms is a major challenge of planetary exploration. In the Inner System, beneath the Frost Line, H2O is relatively scarce: for it to survive in its solid form outside Earth's and Mars' atmospheres, H2O has to lie in areas exposed to little or no Sun. Three planetary bodies in the Inner System have a spin axis almost perpendicular to their orbital plane allowing temperatures below the sublimation limit in their polar areas: Mercury, our Moon and dwarf planet Ceres (fig. 1). Apart from the Moon's poles where the presence of water ice is not evidenced yet, the poles of Ceres are attractive and relatively easy targets for an in-situ mission. They will have been mapped by NASA's Dawn Orbiter by 2015. The successful landing of NASA's Phoenix on Mars has brought another evidence of the interest of modern precision landing techniques for planetary exploration. NASA's MSL and ESA's Moon-NEXT Lunar Lander missions will bring other examples of the relevance of such designs in the years to come. Thales Alenia Space and the "Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique" of the University of Nantes have carried out a preliminary evaluation of a Ceres Polar Lander mission, so as to explore the possibilities offered by soft landing techniques on such a valuable and affordable scientific target. This poster presents this assessment. It illustrates the scientific interest of Ceres' poles and the challenges of this environment for a potential lander. It assesses the feasibility of the mission in a preliminary way, as well as the ability to benefit from previous lander designs.

  18. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  19. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  20. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  1. Seismic risk assessment for Yerevan city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durgaryan, Raffi

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a seismic risk assessment for the territory of Yerevan city with the aim to evaluate potential earthquake hazard and associated risk and losses. This study enables the assessment of seismic risk in the city and evaluates the geographical distribution of potential human and building losses due to proposed earthquake scenarios. The results of this study are presented in form of various mapped seismic hazard parameters such as peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, as well as assessed parameters for expected life, building and lifeline losses. The study has been the first of its kind for Yerevan city that will serve as the first step in building a risk analysis tools to be used by governmental entities and other organizations for planning future disaster response efforts.

  2. Risk assessment as a framework for decisions.

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, Robert Paul; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Borns, David James

    2010-12-01

    The risk assessment approach has been applied to support numerous radioactive waste management activities over the last 30 years. A risk assessment methodology provides a solid and readily adaptable framework for evaluating the risks of CO2 sequestration in geologic formations to prioritize research, data collection, and monitoring schemes. This paper reviews the tasks of a risk assessment, and provides a few examples related to each task. This paper then describes an application of sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of a geologic repository for radioactive waste repository, which because of importance of the geologic barrier, is similar to CO2 sequestration. The paper ends with a simple stochastic analysis of idealized CO2 sequestration site with a leaking abandoned well and a set of monitoring wells in an aquifer above the CO2 sequestration unit in order to evaluate the efficacy of monitoring wells to detect adverse leakage.

  3. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  4. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  5. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  6. Cardiac risk assessment: decreasing postoperative complications.

    PubMed

    Thanavaro, Joanne L

    2015-02-01

    Preoperative cardiac assessment helps identify patients undergoing noncardiac surgery who are at risk for significant postoperative cardiac complications and those who may benefit from additional preoperative evaluation and perioperative care. Advanced practice nurses can identify surgery- and patient-related risks by conducting a thorough health history and physical examination. Multiple risk indices and evidence-based guidelines are available to inform health care providers regarding patient evaluation and strategies to reduce postoperative cardiac risk. In general, preoperative tests are recommended only if the findings will influence medical therapy or perioperative monitoring or will require postponement of surgery until a cardiac condition can be corrected or stabilized. Medication management is a crucial component of the preoperative assessment; providers may need to initiate the use of beta-blockers and make decisions regarding continuing or withholding antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy. Preoperative cardiac risk stratification, medication reconciliation, and device management are essential for providing safe care for patients. PMID:25645037

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment of the modular HTGR plant. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.; Vasquez, J.

    1986-06-01

    A preliminary probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the modular HTGR (MHTGR). This PRA is preliminary in the context that although it updates the PRA issued earlier to include a wider spectrum of events for Licensing Basis Events (LBE) selection, the final version will not be issued until later. The primary function of the assessment was to assure compliance with the NRC interim safety goals imposed by the top-level regulatory criteria, and utility/user requirements regarding public evacuation or sheltering. In addition, the assessment provides a basis for designer feedback regarding reliability allocations and barrier retention requirements as well as providing a basis for the selection of licensing basis events (LBEs) and the safety classification of structures, systems, and components. The assessment demonstrates that both the NRC interim safety goals and utility/user imposed sheltering/evacuation requirements are satisfied. Moreover, it is not anticipated that design changes introduced will jeopardize compliance with the interim safety goals or utility/user requirements. 61 refs., 48 figs., 24 tabs.

  8. Comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment of contaminated soils

    SciTech Connect

    Kuperman, R.G.

    1994-12-31

    Development of a comprehensive methodology for ecological risk assessment and monitoring of contaminated soils is essential to assess the impacts of environmental contaminants on soil community and biologically-mediated processes in soil. The proposed four-step plan involves (1) a thorough survey of the soil community to establish biodiversity and a base-line community structure, (2) toxicity trials on indicator species and whole soil invertebrate communities, (3) laboratory and field tests on indicator processes and (4) the use of statistical and simulation models to ascertain changes in the soil ecosystems. This methodology was used in portions of the US Army`s Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland as part of an ecological risk assessment. Previous soil analyses showed extensive surface soil contamination with metals, nitrate and PCBs. Preliminary results from field surveys of soil invertebrate communities showed significant reductions in total abundance of animals, reductions in the abundance of several taxonomic and functional groups of soil invertebrates, and changes in the activity of epigeic arthropods in contaminated areas when compared with the local ``background`` area. Laboratory tests also demonstrated that microbial activity and success of egg hatching of ground beetle Harpalus pensylvanicus were reduced in contaminated soils. These results suggest that impacts to soil ecosystems should be explicitly considered in ecological risk assessment. The proposed comprehensive methodology appears to offer an efficient and potentially cost saving tool for remedial investigations of contaminated sites.

  9. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-11-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  10. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  11. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  12. Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

    SciTech Connect

    El-Bassioni, A.A.

    1980-08-01

    An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

  13. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  14. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    SciTech Connect

    Prowell, Ian; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  15. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  16. Reliability and risk assessment of structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.

    1991-01-01

    Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

  17. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis

    PubMed Central

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  18. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    SciTech Connect

    Sanzo, D.L.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1993-11-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated the nuclear power plant aging research (NPAR) program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. The purpose of this review is to survey the work conducted to address the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs), as well as the associated data bases. The review takes a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. A preliminary framework is identified for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA, including the identification of needed data for such an integration.

  19. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, J.; Caspar, O.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated by natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with equations integrating various parameters related to hazard and traffic. These are static variables, like a rockfall hazard estimation for a road section or the average number of vehicles crossing this section every day. This methodology cannot take into account dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speed modifications due to the sinuosity, slowdowns resulting of saturated traffic or vehicles columns forming in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not assessed with standard methodologies. Here we show, by mean of a dynamic traffic simulator, that the traffic variations may greatly influence the risk estimation over time. The risk is analysed on several alpine road sections in Switzerland using a dynamic vehicles approach and compared with the results of the static methodology. It demonstrates that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections because of the decreasing of vehicles speed. A more realistic risk can be obtained from a dynamic approach especially on mountain roads. A dynamic traffic simulator, modelling interactions between vehicles is a helpful tool to support decision making to reduce risk on roads.

  20. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  1. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  2. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  3. A Monte Carlo simulation approach for flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agili, Hachem; Chokmani, Karem; Oubennaceur, Khalid; Poulin, Jimmy; Marceau, Pascal

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and the most damaging in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which hit the region in 2011 causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects of buildings has been developed. This approach integrates three main components namely hydrological modeling through flow-probability functions, hydraulic modeling using flow-submersion height functions and the study of buildings damage based on damage functions adapted to the Quebec habitat. The application of this approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for local authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  4. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  5. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  6. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  7. Preliminary Assessment of Sponge Biodiversity on Saba Bank, Netherlands Antilles

    PubMed Central

    Thacker, Robert W.; Díaz, M. Cristina; de Voogd, Nicole J.; van Soest, Rob W. M.; Freeman, Christopher J.; Mobley, Andrew S.; LaPietra, Jessica; Cope, Kevin; McKenna, Sheila

    2010-01-01

    Background Saba Bank Atoll, Netherlands Antilles, is one of the three largest atolls on Earth and provides habitat for an extensive coral reef community. To improve our knowledge of this vast marine resource, a survey of biodiversity at Saba Bank included a multi-disciplinary team that sampled fishes, mollusks, crustaceans, macroalgae, and sponges. Methodology/Principal Findings A single member of the dive team conducted surveys of sponge biodiversity during eight dives at six locations, at depths ranging from 15 to 30 m. This preliminary assessment documented the presence of 45 species pooled across multiple locations. Rarefaction analysis estimated that only 48 to 84% of species diversity was sampled by this limited effort, clearly indicating a need for additional surveys. An analysis of historical collections from Saba and Saba Bank revealed an additional 36 species, yielding a total of 81 sponge species recorded from this area. Conclusions/Significance This observed species composition is similar to that found on widespread Caribbean reefs, indicating that the sponge fauna of Saba Bank is broadly representative of the Caribbean as a whole. A robust population of the giant barrel sponge, Xestospongia muta, appeared healthy with none of the signs of disease or bleaching reported from other Caribbean reefs; however, more recent reports of anchor chain damage to these sponges suggests that human activities can have dramatic impacts on these communities. Opportunities to protect this extremely large habitat should be pursued, as Saba Bank may serve as a significant reservoir of sponge species diversity. PMID:20502643

  8. Preliminary radiometric calibration assessment of ALOS AVNIR-2

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouvet, M.; Goryl, P.; Chander, G.; Santer, R.; Saunier, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper summarizes the activities carried out in the frame of the data quality activities of the Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) sensor onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Assessment of the radiometric calibration of the AVNIR-2 multi-spectral imager is achieved via three intercomparisons to currently flying sensors over the Libyan desert, during the first year of operation. AU three methodologies indicate a slight underestimation of AVNIR-2 in band 1 by 4 to 7% with respect to other sensors radiometric scale. Band 2 does not show any obvious bias. Results for band 3 are affected by saturation due to inappropriate gain setting. Two methodologies indicate no significant bias in band 4. Preliminary results indicate possible degradations of the AVNIR-2 channels, which, when modeled as an exponentially decreasing functions, have time constants of respectively 13.2 %.year-1, 8.8%.year-1 and 0.1%.year-1 in band 1, 2 and 4 (with respect to the radiometric scale of the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, MERIS). Longer time series of AVNIR-2 data are needed to draw final conclusions. ?? 2007 IEEE.

  9. Preliminary Assessment of Thrust Augmentation of NEP Based Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Chiroux, Robert; Pervan, Sherry; Rauwolf, Gerald A.; White, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), with support from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has conducted a preliminary study to compare options for augmenting the thrust of a conventional nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system. These options include a novel nuclear propulsion system concept known as Hybrid Indirect Nuclear Propulsion (HINP) and conventional chemical propulsion. The utility and technical feasibility of the HINP concept are assessed, and features and potential of this new in-space propulsion system concept are identified. As part of the study, SAIC developed top-level design tools to model the size and performance of an HINP system, as well as for several chemical propulsion options, including liquid and gelled propellants. A mission trade study was performed to compare a representative HINP system with chemical propulsion options for thrust augmentation of NEP systems for a mission to Saturn's moon Titan. Details pertaining to the approach, features, initial demonstration results for HINP model development, and the mission trade study are presented. Key technology and design issues associated with the HINP concept and future work recommendations are also identified.

  10. Wind power in Eritrea, Africa: A preliminary resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Garbesi, K.; Rosen, K.; Van Buskirk, R.

    1997-12-31

    The authors preliminary assessment of Eritrean wind energy potential identified two promising regions: (1) the southeastern Red Sea coast and (2) the mountain passes that channel winds between the coastal lowlands and the interior highlands. The coastal site, near the port city of Aseb, has an exceptionally good resource, with estimated average annual wind speeds at 10-m height above 9 m/s at the airport and 7 m/s in the port. Furthermore, the southern 200 km of coastline has offshore WS{sub aa} > 6 m/s. This area has strong potential for development, having a local 20 MW grid and unmet demand for the fishing industry and development. Although the highland sites contain only marginal wind resources ({approximately} 5 m/s), they warrant further investigation because of their proximity to the capital city, Asmera, which has the largest unmet demand and a larger power grid (40 MW with an additional 80 MW planned) to absorb an intermittent source without storage.

  11. Phonological assessment and analysis tools for Tagalog: Preliminary development.

    PubMed

    Chen, Rachelle Kay; Bernhardt, B May; Stemberger, Joseph P

    2016-01-01

    Information and assessment tools concerning Tagalog phonological development are minimally available. The current study thus sets out to develop elicitation and analysis tools for Tagalog. A picture elicitation task was designed with a warm-up, screener and two extension lists, one with more complex and one with simpler words. A nonlinear phonological analysis form was adapted from English (Bernhardt & Stemberger, 2000) to capture key characteristics of Tagalog. The tools were piloted on a primarily Tagalog-speaking 4-year-old boy living in a Canadian-English-speaking environment. The data provided initial guidance for revision of the elicitation tool (available at phonodevelopment.sites.olt.ubc.ca). The analysis provides preliminary observations about possible expectations for primarily Tagalog-speaking 4-year-olds in English-speaking environments: Lack of mastery for tap/trill 'r', and minor mismatches for vowels, /l/, /h/ and word stress. Further research is required in order to develop the tool into a norm-referenced instrument for Tagalog in both monolingual and multilingual environments. PMID:27096390

  12. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  13. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  14. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This volume represents the proceedings of a workshop held from 30 July-3 August 1995 at Fairmont Hot Springs, Montana. The workshop was designed to meet the scientific and regulatory need for current information describing ecotoxicology and risk assessment for wetlands. Professio...

  15. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  16. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1996)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's cancer guidelines set forth recommended principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in assessing the cancer risks from chemicals or other agents in the environment. They also inform EPA decision makers and the public about these procedures. EPA published final cancer...

  17. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  18. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared by an interagency work group under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR). The objective of the work group was to write a document on the major uses of ecological risk assessment by Federal agencies. Eight task groups we...

  19. EPIDEMIOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR REGULATORY POLICY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Epidemiology and risk assessment have several of the features needed to make the difficult decisions required in setting standards for levels of toxic agents in the workplace and environment. hey differ in their aims, orientation, and time scale. While the distribution of disease...

  20. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on September 9, 1996 (61 FR 47552) for a 90 day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are being developed to improve the quality of and consistency among EPA's ecolog...

  1. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  2. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  3. PREGNANCY RISK ASSESSMENT MONITORING SYSTEM (PRAMS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRAMS, the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, is an ongoing state-specific population based surveillance system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state health departments designed to improve the health of mothers and infants by reducing adverse...

  4. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  5. Public Workshops on Issues in Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Workshop Schedule

    • September 2-3, 2015 – Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk Assessment
      This workshop will examine the role that data on epigenetic changes may play...

    • The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

      The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

    • Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

      2007-08-01

      According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

    • New horizons in fracture risk assessment.

      PubMed

      Aspray, Terry J

      2013-09-01

      Fracture is the clinical outcome of concern in osteoporosis, a disease variably defined over the last 30 years, mostly in terms of bone mineral density (BMD). However, an 'osseocentric' view of the condition may have hampered our understanding of how best to identify patients at the greatest risk of fragility fracture. More recently, the identification of a number of clinical risk factors for fragility fracture and the creation of fracture risk assessment tools, such as FRAX®, QFracture and Garvan have helped in a move towards clinically useful definitions, using the common currency of 10-year major osteoporotic and 10-year hip fracture risks. However, there are a large number of available fracture risk assessment tools and there remain few validation studies comparing their performance. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence has recently advocated the use of these methods in case finding and studies are underway in their clinical application. It seems likely that the operational definition of osteoporosis must now include fracture risk, which will never replace fracture incidence as a measure of clinical efficacy but may be used in future studies to define patient groups likely to benefit from intervention. We still need to understand more about the performance of these tools, particularly in the context of specific patient groups, such as those with vertebral osteoporosis, the frail, those who fall and patients with secondary osteoporosis. PMID:23892830

    • Incinerator thermal release valve risk assessment

      SciTech Connect

      Stevens, J.B.

      1998-12-31

      Human health risk assessments were conducted on emissions from several types of incinerators--a hazardous waste combustor, a medical waste/tire combustor, and a refuse derived fuel combustor in three different states. As part of these studies, the short-term emissions from thermal release valves operating during upset conditions were additionally evaluated. The latter assessments addressed two specific risk-related questions: (1) what are the incremental long-term risks/hazards associated with these short-term emissions; (2) what are the acute health hazards associated with these emissions? For each study, emission estimates for both the incinerator stack and the thermal release valve were obtained from the facility. Stack testing was utilized to obtain stack gas concentrations of emissions at one facility; engineering estimates were used to ascertain emissions from the thermal release valve. The two facilities were proposed incinerators, so literature-derived emissions were used throughout.

    • Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

      2013-04-01

      Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

    • Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

      SciTech Connect

      2009-01-18

      This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

    • Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

      SciTech Connect

      Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

      1992-01-01

      This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ``risk categories`` are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies.

    • Preliminary biogeochemical assessment of EPICA LGM and Holocene ice samples

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Bulat, S.; Alekhina, I.; Marie, D.; Wagenbach, D.; Raynaud, D.; Petit, J. R.

      2009-04-01

      weak signals were possible to generate which are now under cloning. The signals were hard to reproduce because of rather low volume of samples. More ice volume is needed to get the biosignal stronger and reproducible. Meantime we are adjusting PCR and in addition testing DNA repair-enzyme cocktail in case of DNA damage. As a preliminary conclusion we would like to highlight the following. Both Holocene and LGM ice samples (EDC99 and EDML) are very clean in terms of Ultra low biomass and Ultra low DOC content. The most basal ice of EDC and EDML ice cores could help in assessing microbial biomass and diversity if present under the glacier at the ice-bedrock boundary. * The present-day consortium includes S. Bulat, I. Alekhina, P. Normand, D. Prieur, J-R. Petit and D. Raynaud (France) and E. Willerslev and J.P. Steffensen (Denmark)

    • Development of sensitive and reliable LC-MS/MS methods for the determination of three fluoroquinolones in water and fish tissue samples and preliminary environmental risk assessment of their presence in two rivers in northern Poland.

      PubMed

      Wagil, Marta; Kumirska, Jolanta; Stolte, Stefan; Puckowski, Alan; Maszkowska, Joanna; Stepnowski, Piotr; Białk-Bielińska, Anna

      2014-09-15

      Antibiotic consumption (e.g. fluoroquinolones (FQs)) and, as a consequence, their presence in the environment, have received a lot of attention in the last several years due to increasing numbers of diseases and infections that are becoming resistant to traditional treatments for both humans and animals. In addition, even though antibiotics are safe for human and veterinary usage, ecosystems may be exposed to these substances. In this study, analytical methods for determining enrofloxacin (ENR), norfloxacin (NOR) and ciprofloxacin (CIP) in water samples and fish tissue based on the LC-MS/MS technique were developed and validated. As there is no data available concerning the risks posed by antibiotics in Poland, the proposed methods were applied for monitoring drug presence in environmental samples collected from two rivers in northern Poland. Evaluations of the ecotoxicity of ENR, NOR and CIP towards four different species of aquatic organisms: marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), green algae (Scenedesmus vacuolatus), duckweed (Lemna minor) and crustacean (Daphnia magna), were also carried out. All the investigated compounds were detected at least once in the survey. NOR was found to be the most ubiquitous drug with concentrations of up to 442.8 ng L(-1). Moreover, it was established that L. minor is the most sensitive species to the investigated drugs (EC50NOR = 0.13 mg L(-1), EC50ENR = 0.22 mg L(-1) and EC50CIP = 0.34 mg L(-1)). The calculated risk quotient (RQ) values confirmed that the concentrations of the investigated FQs in the environmental samples were at a level of moderate environmental risk (1risk (RQCIP = 8.1). PMID:25016107

    • Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment

      PubMed Central

      2015-01-01

      More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD. PMID:25650086

    • Preliminary Mineral Resource Assessment of Selected Mineral Deposit Types in Afghanistan

      USGS Publications Warehouse

      Ludington, Steve; Orris, Greta J.; Bolm, Karen S.; Peters, Stephen G.; the U.S. Geological Survey-Afghanistan Ministry of Mines and Industry Joint Mineral Resource Assessment Team

      2007-01-01

      INTRODUCTION Wise decision-making and management of natural resources depend upon credible and reliable scientific information about the occurrence, distribution, quantity and quality of a country's resource base. Economic development decisions by governments require such information to be part of a Mineral Resource Assessment. Such Mineral Assessments are also useful to private citizens and international investors, consultants, and companies prior to entry and investment in a country. Assessments can also be used to help evaluate the economic risks and impact on the natural environment associated with development of resources. In February 2002, at the request of the Department of State and the then U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (Robert P. Finn), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prepared a detailed proposal addressing natural resources issues critical to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The proposal was refined and updated in December 2003 and was presented as a 5-year work plan to USAID-Kabul in February 2004. USAID-Kabul currently funds this plan and this report presents a part of the preliminary results obligated for fiscal year 2006. A final Preliminary Assessment of the Non Fuel Mineral Resource of Afghanistan will be completed and delivered at the end of fiscal year 2007. Afghanistan has abundant metallic and non-metallic resources, but the potential resources have never been systematically assessed using modern methods. Much of the existing mineral information for Afghanistan was gathered during the 1950s and continued in the late 1980s until the departure of the geologic advisors from the Soviet Union. During this period, there were many mineral-related activities centered on systematic geologic mapping of the country, collection of geochemical and rock samples, implementation of airborne geophysical surveys, and exploration focused on the discovery of large mineral deposits. Many reports, maps, charts, and tables were produced at that time. Some of

    • Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

      PubMed Central

      Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

      1996-01-01

      Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

    • Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

      2016-04-01

      Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

    • Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

      SciTech Connect

      Moss, R. H.; Delgado, A.; Malone, E L.

      2015-08-15

      U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

    • Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Nickol, Craig L.

      2008-01-01

      A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  1. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). PMID:23907781

  2. Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldford, A. I.; Adelfang, S. I.; Hickey, J. S.; Smith, S. R.; Welty, R. P.; White, G. L.

    1977-01-01

    Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

  3. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  4. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  5. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  6. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2011-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm change in human cancer risk assessment. Methods To facilitate development of a road map for this needed paradigm change in carcinogenicity testing, a workshop titled “Genomics in Cancer Risk Assessment” brought together toxicologists from academia and industry and government regulators and risk assessors from the United States and the European Union. Participants discussed the state-of-the-art in developing alternative testing strategies for carcinogenicity, with emphasis on potential contributions from omics technologies. Results and Conclusions The goal of human risk assessment is to decide whether a given exposure to an agent is acceptable to human health and to provide risk management measures based on evaluating and predicting the effects of exposures on human health. Although exciting progress is being made using genomics approaches, a new paradigm that uses these methods and human material when possible would provide mechanistic insights that may inform new predictive approaches (e.g., in vitro assays) and facilitate the development of genomics-derived biomarkers. Regulators appear to be willing to accept such approaches where use is clearly defined, evidence is strong, and approaches are qualified for regulatory use. PMID:21147607

  7. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  8. OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  11. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  12. Adult leukemia risk and personal appliance use: a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Lovely, R H; Buschbom, R L; Slavich, A L; Anderson, L E; Hansen, N H; Wilson, B W

    1994-09-15

    The hypothesis that use of personal electric appliances may be associated with increased risk of acute nonlymphocytic leukemia in adults was tested using interview data from a previously completed case-control study of 114 cases and 133 controls conducted between 1981 and 1984. Cases were obtained from a population-based cancer registry in western Washington state, and controls were obtained from the same area by random digit dialing. Of 32 electrical home appliances for which data on use were available for adult acute nonlymphocytic leukemia cases and controls, three motor-driven personal appliances (electric razors, hair dryers, and massage units) were selected a priori because their use represents exposure to higher peak magnetic fields than that from most other home appliances. When compared on an "ever used" versus "never used" basis, use of one or more of these appliances was not associated with increased risk of leukemia in the population studied (odds ratio (OR) = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-1.24). When the appliances were considered individually, massage units were more likely to have been used by cases than by controls (OR = 3.00, 95% CI 1.43-6.32), while hair dryers were more likely to have been used by controls than cases (OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.22-0.66). There was a nonsignificant tendency for electric razor use to differentiate the cases from controls (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 0.80-2.23). When reported daily time of use was stratified, there was no overall increased risk with increased time of use except for electric razors (p < 0.05). In addition to the analysis of appliance use data from the case-control study, the authors obtained several models of these motor-driven personal appliances and characterized the magnetic fields they produce. Magnetic field flux density, or the B-field, and spectral measurements showed that partial body exposure from such appliances may exceed 0.5 mTesla (root mean squared) at rates-of-change exceeding 10 Tesla

  13. Practice management based on risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sandberg, Hans

    2004-01-01

    The management of a dental practice is most often focused on what clinicians do (production of items), and not so much on what is achieved in terms of oral health. The main reason for this is probably that it is easier to measure production and more difficult to measure health outcome. This paper presents a model based on individual risk assessment that aims to achieve a financially sound economy and good oral health. The close-to-the-clinic management tool, the HIDEP Model (Health Improvement in a DEntal Practice) was pioneered initially in Sweden at the end of 1980s. The experience over a 15-year period with different elements of the model is presented, including: the basis of examination and risk assessment; motivation; task delegation and leadership issues; health-finance evaluations; and quality development within a dental clinic. DentiGroupXL, a software program designed to support the work based on the model, is also described. PMID:15646588

  14. The perinatal assessment of psychosocial risk.

    PubMed

    Haglund, L J; Britton, J R

    1998-06-01

    Although evaluation of psychosocial risk factors prior to perinatal hospital discharge has been advocated, the means for accomplishing such an evaluation are not well established. This article reviews several major psychosocial risk factors together with instruments that have been utilized to assess them during the perinatal period. Formal constructs reviewed include anxiety, depression, self-concept, general attitudes, life events, stress, adaptation, social support, marital and family functioning, and the home environment. Ongoing assessment of psychosocial status using formal instruments during routine perinatal care may provide a more complete picture of the psychosocial needs of the individual mother and her family, allowing for more appropriate, timely intervention and utilization of social and health care resources. PMID:9647002

  15. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  16. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  17. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  18. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    PubMed

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  19. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  20. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  1. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  2. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  3. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.

    2009-03-01

    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  4. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  5. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  6. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF COMBUSTION MODIFICATION TECHNIQUES: VOLUME II. TECHNICAL RESULTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives preliminary methodologies, data compilation, and program priorities for assessing stationary combustion sources and NOx combustion modification technologies. Equipment characterizations and multimedia emission inventories are presented for utility and industrial ...

  7. PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY CONVERSION PROCESSES FOR AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST PRODUCT RESIDUES. VOLUME 1

    EPA Science Inventory

    A preliminary assessment was made of the environmental impacts of several types of conversion processes for producing energy or fuels from agricultural and forestry residues. Fifteen examples were selected to represent various combinations of agricultural residues and conversion ...

  8. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  9. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  10. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  11. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  12. Risk assessment of urban air pollution.

    PubMed

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1992-12-01

    Urban air pollution, originating in western countries mainly from automotive engine exhausts, contains thousands of components, many of which are genotoxic, i.e. are putative cancer initiators. Other pollution components, such as NO2 and certain particles, may have cocarcinogenic/promotive effects, at least at higher exposure levels. Cancer risk assessment of this complex mixture has to combine data from the exposure history, from epidemiological studies as well as from animal carcinogenicity tests, and from in vitro studies of fractions and individual components. Data for metabolism and pharmaco-kinetics have also to be considered. A multiplicative linear model is assumed to be valid for cancer initiation at low levels. Attempts are being made to determine the target dose from ultimate carcinogens (reactive metabolites) via macromolecule adduct levels, and to base the risk assessment on the radiation-dose equivalent to the chemical dose. So far this has been possible only for simple alkenes, which are metabolized to epoxides, and indirectly, via benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), for particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The lifetime risk of cancer (all sites) from ethene is estimated accordingly to 1.4 x 10(-4) per microgram m-3, and from PAH to 12 x 10(-4) per ng m-3 BaP. For other components indicated to give risk contribution (NOx, volatile PAH, benzene, aldehydes, butadiene) essential data are lacking and only very rough estimates can be given at this time. PMID:1306130

  13. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  14. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al. PMID:25226200

  15. Assessment of the health status in the Massa Lombarda cohort: a preliminary description of the program evaluating cardio-cerebro-vascular disease risk factors and quality of life in an elderly population.

    PubMed

    Nascetti, S; Linarello, S; Scurti, M; Grandi, E; Gaddoni, M; Noera, G; Gaddi, A

    2004-01-01

    The Massa Lombarda program (MLP) is the first step of a European multi-center program, promoted and coordinated from Bologna University's Academic Spin off Health Research and Development, which attempts to manage advanced sanitary research in general population. The instant individual definition (IID) study is the first phase of the program concerning the study of risk factors (RF) and early diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), through a new diagnostic technology called myocardial perfusion scoring system (MPS). The study consists of a longitudinal observational epidemiological investigation of adult population (above 25 years of age) resident in Massa Lombarda (Ravenna), with the survey of social and biological parameters. The elderly part of the population (1000 subjects above 75 years) was submitted to a more complex analysis, as part of the study on health status in European aging populations, aimed at revealing the determinants influencing the healthy aging, and at identifying their impact on mortality,cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity, disability and decline of quality of life. Laboratory analyses were aimed at identifying the following factors: (i) Genetic markers related to pro and anti-inflammatory cytokine- codifying genes. (ii) Oxidative stress-involved molecules,and inflammation-involved genes, and more in general genes involved in the brittleness(iii) (ApoE). Appraising the degree of interaction with non-genetic factors, like measurable immunological markers in the peripheral blood, markers of reactions to oxidative stress,evaluation of metabolic parameters. Moreover, old population is expected to answer the questionnaires for evaluation of the dietary habits, physical activity, self-sufficiency,cognitive ability, motor coordination, perceived stress and social relationships. PMID:15207428

  16. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  17. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  18. Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

  19. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Volume 2: Detailed assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    Volume 2 provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment in a technically detailed format more suitable for peer review than the executive summary of Vol. 1. It serves to integrate and assimilate information that has appeared in documents referenced herein and to focus on issues that are purely environmental. It discloses the state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies and defines prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed.

  20. Value impact assessment: A preliminary assessment of improvement opportunities at the Quantico Central Heating Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Brambley, M.R.; Weakley, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    This report presents the results of a preliminary assessment of opportunities for improvement at the US Marine Corps (USMC) Quantico, Virginia, Central Heating Plant (CHP). This study is part of a program intended to provide the CHP staff with a computerized Artificial Intelligence (AI) decision support system that will assist in a more efficient, reliable, and safe operation of their plant. As part of the effort to provide the AI decision support system, a team of six scientists and engineers from the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) visited the plant to characterize the conditions and environment of the CHP. This assessment resulted in a list of potential performance improvement opportunities at the CHP. In this report, 12 of these opportunities are discussed and qualitatively analyzed. 70 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  1. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  2. A Preliminary Evaluation of Season-ahead Flood Risks Globally

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D.; Ward, P.; Block, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, flood catastrophes lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages each year. While short-term flood warning systems are improving in number and sophistication, forecasting systems on the order of months to seasons are a rarity, yet may lead to further disaster preparedness. In this study, prospects of season-ahead flood forecasts are investigated by examining inter-annual climate variability on seasonal maximum floods, particularly how ENSO and other large-scale phenomena may modulate discharge and flood severity. Predictability of main seasonal floods is also assessed globally using PCR-GLOBWB simulations with large- and local- climate drivers, and validated with GRDC streamflow. Skillful prediction can lead to season-ahead flood probabilities, flood extent, estimated damages, and eventually integrate into early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

  3. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  4. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not available or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    PubMed

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  6. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  7. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  8. MECHANISM OF DIOXIN TOXICITY: RELATIONSHIP TO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk characterization involves hazard identification, determination of dose/response relationships, and exposure assessment. mprovement of the risk assessment process requires inclusion of the best available science. ecent findings in the area of dioxin toxicity have led to a maj...

  9. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  10. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  11. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  12. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  13. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  14. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  15. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  16. Intervention to train physicians in rural China on HIV/STI knowledge and risk reduction counseling: preliminary findings.

    PubMed

    Wang, Debin; Operario, Don; Hong, Qian; Zhang, Hongbo; Coates, Thomas J

    2009-04-01

    We evaluated an intervention to train physicians in rural China on knowledge of HIV/STI prevention, diagnosis, treatment options, and HIV/STI behavioral risk reduction counseling. This paper reports preliminary findings related to feasibility and acceptability of the program. Using a pre-post design, 69 physicians were recruited from rural county hospitals and participated in a 10-day group training program, followed by two months of clinical fieldwork and two additional weeks of training. Physicians completed baseline and six-month assessments. Patients' cohorts, recruited from clinic waiting areas of participating physicians, completed baseline and six-month HIV/STI risk assessments. Physicians reported increased knowledge of HIV biology and pathology, epidemiology, host immune response, opportunisitic infection and syndromic management, antiretroviral therapy, risk reduction counseling, and stigma reduction following the training. Patients reported improved knowledge of HIV, reduced HIV stigma, higher rates of HIV testing, and improved condom use at follow-up. The findings suggest that training physicians on HIV/STI-related knowledge and risk reduction counseling is a promising strategy for reducing HIV/STI epidemics in rural China. PMID:19266406

  17. Trajectory planning method for reduced patient risk in image-guided neurosurgery: concept and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamir, Reuben R.; Joskowicz, Leo; Antiga, Luca; Foroni, Roberto I.; Shoshan, Yigal

    2010-02-01

    We present a new preoperative planning method to quantify and help reduce the risk associated with needle and tool insertion trajectories in image-guided keyhole neurosurgery. The goal is to quantify the risk of a proposed straight trajectory, and/or to find the trajectory with the lowest risk to nearby brain structures based on pre-operative CT/MRI images. The method automatically computes the risk associated with a given trajectory, or finds the trajectory with the lowest risk to nearby brain structures based on preoperative image segmentation and on a risk volume map. The surgeon can revise the suggested trajectory, add a new one using interactive 3D visualization, and obtain a quantitative risk measure. The trajectory risk is evaluated based on the tool placement uncertainty, on the proximity of critical brain structures, and on a predefined table of quantitative geometric risk measures. Our preliminary results on a clinical dataset with eight targets show a significant reduction in trajectory risk and a shortening of the preoperative planning time as compared to the conventional method.

  18. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  19. Assessing suicidal risk with antiepileptic drugs

    PubMed Central

    Mula, Marco; Bell, Gail S; Sander, Josemir W

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration issued an alert about an increased risk for suicidality during treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) for different indications, including epilepsy. We discuss the issue of suicide in epilepsy with special attention to AEDs and the assessment of suicide in people with epilepsy. It has been suggested that early medical treatment with AEDs might potentially reduce suicide risk of people with epilepsy, but it is of great importance that the choice of drug is tailored to the mental state of the patient. The issue of suicidality in epilepsy is likely to represent an example of how the underdiagnosis of psychiatric symptoms, the lack of input from professionals (eg, psychologists, social workers, and psychiatrists), and the delay in an optimized AED therapy may worsen the prognosis of the condition with the occurrence of severe complications such as suicide. PMID:20957120

  20. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  1. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

  2. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W. )

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  3. Suicide risk assessment and risk formulation part II: Suicide risk formulation and the determination of levels of risk.

    PubMed

    Berman, Alan L; Silverman, Morton M

    2014-08-01

    The suicide risk formulation (SRF) is dependent on the data gathered in the suicide risk assessment. The SRF assigns a level of suicide risk that is intended to inform decisions about triage, treatment, management, and preventive interventions. However, there is little published about how to stratify and formulate suicide risk, what are the criteria for assigning levels of risk, and how triage and treatment decisions are correlated with levels of risk. The salient clinical issues that define an SRF are reviewed and modeling is suggested for an SRF that might guide clinical researchers toward the refinement of an SRF process. PMID:24286521

  4. Risk assessment of acrylamide in foods.

    PubMed

    Dybing, E; Sanner, T

    2003-09-01

    Daily mean intakes of acrylamide present in foods and coffee in a limited Norwegian exposure assessment study have been estimated to be 0.49 and 0.46 microg per kg body weight in males and females, respectively. Testicular mesotheliomas and mammary gland adenomas have consistently been found in 2-year drinking water rat cancer studies with acrylamide. Acrylamide also shows initiating activity in mouse skin after systemic administration. Since acrylamide is converted to the mutagenic metabolite glycidamide and forms adducts to hemoglobin in rodents and humans, the tumorigenic endpoints in rats were assumed to be an expression of acrylamide genotoxicity. Using the default linear extrapolation methods LED10 and T25, the lifetime cancer hazard after lifelong exposure to 1 microg acrylamide per kg body weight per day, scaled to humans, was calculated to be, on average, 1.3 x 10-3. Using this hazard level and correlating it with the exposure estimates, a lifetime cancer risk related to daily intake of acrylamide in foods for 70 years in males was calculated to be 0.6 x 10-3, implying that 6 out of 10,000 individuals may develop cancer due to acrylamide. For females, the risk values were slightly lower. It must be emphasized that this risk assessment is conservative. A number of processes may result in nonlinearity of the dose-response relationships for acrylamide carcinogenicity in the low-dose region, including detoxication reactions, cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, apoptosis, and immune surveillance. Thus, the true risk levels related to acrylamide intake may be considerably lower. PMID:12805639

  5. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... AGENCY Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... Generation of Risk Assessment'' (NexGen) program, EPA is announcing a 2-day public dialogue conference to... Information About the Conference The landscape of risk assessment is changing rapidly with new advances...

  6. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-27

    ... time to prepare and submit comments on the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our... assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at http://www.aphis.usda... petition, draft environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301)...

  7. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  8. Whither risk assessment? An overall perspective.

    PubMed

    Gori, G B

    1993-04-01

    Major regulatory initiatives in health and safety are increasingly viewed as too costly, not objectively justified, and thus failing in their mandate to ensure a fair social distribution of rights and burdens. Official but arbitrary assumptions in cancer risk assessment and open-ended statutory language encourage regulatory agencies to overregulate. Also, institutional self-serving motivations of regulatory agencies add incentives to expand regulation. Mitigation of the current regulatory crisis may come from curbing these selfish incentives, and from requiring that regulation be justified on the basis of strict scientific standards of evidence, rather than on arbitrary assumptions and conjectures. PMID:8484030

  9. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  10. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants. PMID:24046097

  11. Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

    2015-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

  12. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incinerator facility (east Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 2. Introduction. Draft report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-01

    This volume provides a description of the facility, and its location and setting in the three-state area of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia; an overview of previous risk assessments conducted by U.S. EPA for this site, including the preliminary assessment of inhalation exposure and the screening-level risk analyses of indirect exposure; and a summary of comments provided by the Peer Review Panel on the Project Plan.

  13. Assessment of cardiovascular risks and overall risks for noncardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Chung, O Y; Beattie, C; Friesinger, G C

    1999-02-01

    Appropriate care of the elderly patient requires a concerted multi-disciplinary approach before, during, and after surgery to optimize functional outcomes, with the principal focus placed on improving quality of life and strategies for risk reduction. Perioperative physicians must be able to assess the biologic, not the chronologic, age of geriatric patients and their capacity for independent function. Physicians need to understand alterations in the physiology of elderly patients attributable to the normal aging process as well as the prevalence of concurrent pathologic conditions that necessitate special precautions. Maintaining autonomy and function as a result of an acute surgical intervention may be the most important outcome to the elderly patient. Most of the data available and guidelines promulgated do not specifically address the elderly population. It is important to collect data prospectively and use sophisticated methods for analyses to develop better management algorithms for these (often complicated) clinical issues in the elderly. PMID:10093774

  14. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  15. A preliminary risk-benefit assessment of paclitaxel.

    PubMed

    Bitton, R J; Figg, W D; Reed, E

    1995-03-01

    Paclitaxel is an antineoplastic agent, first isolated and described in 1971. Despite its novel structure and apparent activity in vitro, little interest was shown in developing the compound because of its scarcity, problems with its formulation and the mistaken assumption that its mechanism of action was similar to that of the vinca alkaloids. Approximately 10 years later, the unique mechanism of action of paclitaxel, its ability to stabilise microtubules, was discovered, and its activity against human tumour xenografts was demonstrated. Interest in the drug was reignited and clinical testing began. Severe hypersensitivity reactions were controlled in the phase II programme with a premedication regimen consisting of dexamethasone, histamine H1-antagonists and H2-antagonists. Neutropenia was dose limiting in all studies conducted in patients with solid tumours. This toxicity was schedule-dependent, and less severe when paclitaxel was administered as a 3-hour infusion regimen. Peripheral neuropathy was mild to moderate in the initial experience, and dose-dependent. However, when bone marrow support with haemopoietic growth factors was used to allow paclitaxel dose intensification, neurotoxicity became dose limiting. To date, substantial clinical efficacy has been demonstrated in ovarian, breast, non-small-cell lung, and head and neck cancers. Response rates were low in initial studies in melanoma, prostate, colon, cervix and renal cancer. In December 1992, US Food and Drug Administration approval was granted for the use of paclitaxel as second-line therapy in ovarian cancer patients. More recently, similar approval was granted for use in recurrent breast cancer. Nevertheless, important questions remain.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:7619331

  16. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Glenn W. . E-mail: suter.glenn@epa.gov; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-09-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species.

  17. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  18. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  19. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  20. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  1. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  2. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  3. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  5. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  6. Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

  7. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS OF SPATIAL INFLUENCES IN THE AMBOS NOGALES REGION OF THE US-MEXICAN BORDER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ambient air measurements collected from 1994 to 1995 were used in a preliminary assessment of potential source and spatial influences in the Ambos Nogales border region (Nogales, Arizona, USA and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico). In this assessment, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and...

  8. The Coordinators of Psychiatric Education (COPE) Residency In-Training Exam: A Preliminary Psychometric Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Gregory P. J.; Crockford, David N.; Hecker, Kent

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The Coordinators of Psychiatric Education (COPE) Residency In-Training Exam is a formative exam for Canadian psychiatric residents that was reconstructed using assessment best practices. An assessment of psychometric properties was subsequently performed on the exam to ensure preliminary validity and reliability. Methods: An exam…

  9. Satellite Power Systems (SPS): Concept development and evaluation program: Preliminary assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of a potential Satellite Power System (SPS) is provided. The assessment includes discussion of technical and economic feasibility; the effects of microwave power transmission beams on biological, ecological, and electromagnetic systems; the impact of SPS construction, deployment, and operations on the biosphere and on society; and the merits of SPS compared to other future energy alternatives.

  10. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cardiovascular Risk: Systematic Evidence Review from the Risk Assessment Work Group The Evidence Report Full Report Accessible ... MB) Printer-friendly version (2 MB) Study Quality Assessment Tools Clinical Practice Guideline: Developed Under NHLBI Partnership ...

  11. Preliminary report on the ecological assessment of Waste Area Grouping 5 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    Ashwood, T.L.; Suter, G.W. II; Stewart, A.J.

    1992-09-01

    In support of the remedial investigation for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 5, staff of the Environmental Sciences Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory have conducted preliminary ecological assessment activities. A screening level ecological risk assessment has been completed, ambient toxicity tests have been conducted on streams and seeps within WAG 5, WAG 5 has been surveyed for rare and endangered species and wetlands, and wild turkeys that may feed on contaminated vegetation and insects in WAG 5 have been screened for beta-emitting isotopes and [sup 137]Cs. The screening-level ecological risk assessment identified some data gaps that were addressed in the ecological assessment plan. These include gaps in data on the toxicity of surface water and soil within WAG 5 and on the status of rare and endangered species. In addition, the screening-level risk assessment identified the need for data on the level of contaminants in wild turkeys that may be consumed by predatory wildlife and humans. Three rounds of ambient toxicity tests on six streams and seeps, using the microcrustacean Ceriodaphnia, have identified potential toxicity in three of the sample sites. Further tests are required to identify the toxicant. No rare or endangered animal species have been identified in the WAG 5 area.

  12. CONFOUNDERS IN INTERPRETING PATHOLOGY FOR SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The contribution of pathology assessment to toxicity assessment is invaluable but often not clearly understood. Pathology endpoints are the central response around which human health risk assessment is frequently determined; therefore, it is important that the general toxicology ...

  13. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  14. U.S. EPA Superfund Program's Policy for Risk and Dose Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, Stuart

    2008-01-15

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has primary responsibility for implementing the long-term (non-emergency) portion of a key U.S. law regulating cleanup: the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, nicknamed 'Superfund'. The purpose of the Superfund program is to protect human health and the environment over the long term from releases or potential releases of hazardous substances from abandoned or uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The focus of this paper is on risk and dose assessment policies and tools for addressing radioactively contaminated sites by the Superfund program. EPA has almost completed two risk assessment tools that are particularly relevant to decommissioning activities conducted under CERCLA authority. These are the: 1. Building Preliminary Remediation Goals for Radionuclides (BPRG) electronic calculator, and 2. Radionuclide Outdoor Surfaces Preliminary Remediation Goals (SPRG) electronic calculator. EPA developed the BPRG calculator to help standardize the evaluation and cleanup of radiologically contaminated buildings at which risk is being assessed for occupancy. BPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust, air and building materials that correspond to a specified level of human cancer risk. The intent of SPRG calculator is to address hard outside surfaces such as building slabs, outside building walls, sidewalks and roads. SPRGs are radionuclide concentrations in dust and hard outside surface materials. EPA is also developing the 'Radionuclide Ecological Benchmark' calculator. This calculator provides biota concentration guides (BCGs), also known as ecological screening benchmarks, for use in ecological risk assessments at CERCLA sites. This calculator is intended to develop ecological benchmarks as part of the EPA guidance 'Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk

  15. The Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR): developing a tool for clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Cutcliffe, J R; Barker, P

    2004-08-01

    Contemporary and established literature indicates that people with mental health problems are at a higher risk of suicide than the general population. Because suicide is a multifaceted, complex phenomenon, risk assessment within the mental health care system requires a pluralistic, multidimensional and multiprofessional response. While assessment tools may provide useful guidance, especially guarding against complacency and over confidence, the fundamental basis of risk assessment must involve a thorough examination of the personal, interpersonal and social circumstances of each individual. Such thorough and rigorous assessments, the authors of this paper would add, require a degree of 'clinical judgement'. As a rule, inexperienced members of mental health care staff should not be charged with the responsibility of conducting suicide risk assessments without sound mentorship. However, with the right support and assessment tool, the novice practitioner might develop the kind of clinical judgement necessary for this critical task. Accordingly, this paper traces the development of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR). It illustrates the practice development context out of which the need for the tool arose; it outlines the key evidence that underpins the construction of the tool and it is described. It is important to point out that as yet, no wide scale, quantitative validation of the tool has been conducted. Therefore, at this point, the tool should be treated with a degree of appropriate caution. Nevertheless, the preliminary attempts that have been made to 'validate' or 'rate' the tool in practice are included. While acknowledging that any risk assessment tool represents only one aspect of the necessarily broader assessment of risk, the NGASR appears to provide a useful template for the nursing assessment of suicide risk, especially for the novice. PMID:15255912

  16. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  17. Ecological risk assessments for watersheds: Lessons learned from case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Marcy, S.K.M.

    1994-12-31

    The USEPA Office of Water and Risk Assessment Forum are co-sponsoring the development of watershed level ecological risk assessments in Big Darby Creek, OH, Clinch River, VA, Middle Platte River Wetlands, NE, Snake River, ID, and Waquoit Bay Estuary, MA. The case studies are testing the Agency`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment at a watershed scale for multiple stressors. During case study development much has been learned about how to apply and modify the principles in the Framework to landscape scale risk assessments. Insights include how to select appropriate assessment endpoints to drive the risk assessment, how to effectively increase involvement by risk management teams, and provide decision opportunities for managers throughout development. The case studies demonstrate diverse ways to conduct watershed risk assessments, and illustrate the importance of multiple risk hypotheses in conceptual models addressing the combined and relative risk of chemical, physical and biological stressors. Issues the case studies highlight include the need for a process to determine when watershed risk assessments are appropriate and at what level of complexity they should be performed, how to increase the use of the ecological risk assessments in management decision-making and how to determine the best risk reduction strategy. An update on the watershed case studies will be provided and the insights and issues stated above, discussed.

  18. High risk cohort study for psychiatric disorders in childhood: rationale, design, methods and preliminary results.

    PubMed

    Salum, Giovanni Abrahão; Gadelha, Ary; Pan, Pedro Mario; Moriyama, Tais Silveira; Graeff-Martins, Ana Soledade; Tamanaha, Ana Carina; Alvarenga, Pedro; Valle Krieger, Fernanda; Fleitlich-Bilyk, Bacy; Jackowski, Andrea; Sato, João Ricardo; Brietzke, Elisa; Polanczyk, Guilherme Vanoni; Brentani, Helena; de Jesus Mari, Jair; Do Rosário, Maria Conceição; Manfro, Gisele Gus; Bressan, Rodrigo Affonseca; Mercadante, Marcos Tomanik; Miguel, Eurípedes Constantino; Rohde, Luis Augusto

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study is to present the rationale, methods, design and preliminary results from the High Risk Cohort Study for the Development of Childhood Psychiatric Disorders. We describe the sample selection and the components of each phases of the study, its instruments, tasks and procedures. Preliminary results are limited to the baseline phase and encompass: (i) the efficacy of the oversampling procedure used to increase the frequency of both child and family psychopathology; (ii) interrater reliability and (iii) the role of differential participation rate. A total of 9937 children from 57 schools participated in the screening procedures. From those 2512 (random = 958; high risk = 1554) were further evaluated with diagnostic instruments. The prevalence of any child mental disorder in the random strata and high-risk strata was 19.9% and 29.7%. The oversampling procedure was successful in selecting a sample with higher family rates of any mental disorders according to diagnostic instruments. Interrater reliability (kappa) for the main diagnostic instrument range from 0.72 (hyperkinetic disorders) to 0.84 (emotional disorders). The screening instrument was successful in selecting a sub-sample with "high risk" for developing mental disorders. This study may help advance the field of child psychiatry and ultimately provide useful clinical information. PMID:25469819

  19. Risk assessment for loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in U.S. mining.

    PubMed

    Md-Nor, Zainalabidin; Kecojevic, Vladislav; Komljenovic, Dragan; Groves, William

    2008-06-01

    The paper presents the results of research aimed at developing a risk assessment process that can be used to more thoroughly characterise risks associated with loader- and dozer-related fatal incidents in US mining. The assessment is based on historical data obtained from the US Mine Safety and Health Administration investigation reports, which includes 77 fatal incidents that occurred from 1995 to 2006. The Preliminary Hazard Assessment method is used in identifying and quantifying risks. Risk levels are then developed using a pre-established risk matrix that ranks them according to probability and severity. The resulting assigned risk value can then be used to prioritise risk control strategies. A total of 10 hazards were identified for loaders. The hazards 'failure to follow adequate maintenance procedure' and 'failure of mechanical/electrical/hydraulic components' were the most severe and frequent hazards and they fell into the category of 'high' risk. The same number of hazards was identified for dozers. The hazard 'failure to identify adverse site/geological conditions' was the most severe and frequent hazard and it fell into the category of 'high' risk. PMID:18642163

  20. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  1. Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marzuka-Alcalá, Alexander; Gabree, Michele Jacobs; Tsao, Hensin

    2014-01-01

    Familial melanoma accounts for approximately a tenth of all melanoma cases. The most commonly known melanoma susceptibility gene is the highly penetrant CDKN2A (p16INK4a) locus, which is transmitted in an autosomal dominant fashion and accounts for approximately 20-50 % of familial melanoma cases. Mutated p16INK4a shows impaired capacity to inhibit the cyclin D1-CDK4 complex, allowing for unchecked cell cycle progression. Mutations in the second protein coded by CDKN2A, p14ARF, are much less common and result in proteasomal degradation of p53 with subsequent accumulation of DNA damage as the cell progresses through the cell cycle without a functional p53-mediated DNA damage response. Mutations in CDK4 that impair the inhibitory interaction with p16INK4a also increase melanoma risk but these mutations are extremely rare. Genes of the melanin biosynthetic pathway, including MC1R and MITF, have also been implicated in melanomagenesis. MC1R variants were traditionally thought to increase risk for melanoma secondary to intensified UV-mediated DNA damage in the setting of absent photoprotective eumelanin. Accumulation of pheomelanin, which appears to have a carcinogenic effect regardless of UV exposure, may be a more likely mechanism. Impaired SUMOylation of the E318K variant of MITF results in increased transcription of genes that confer melanocytes with a pro-malignant phenotype. Mutations in the tumor suppressor BAP1 enhance the metastatic potential of uveal melanoma and predispose to cutaneous/ocular melanoma, atypical melanocytic tumors, and other internal malignancies (COMMON syndrome). Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous low-risk alleles. Although several melanoma susceptibility genes have been identified, risk assessment tools have been developed only for the most common gene implicated with hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A. MelaPRO, a validated model that relies on Mendelian inheritance and Bayesian probability theories, estimates carrier

  2. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  3. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  4. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  5. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks. PMID:7724844

  6. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  7. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  8. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism. PMID:15954724

  9. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  10. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  11. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric... destroyed would cause significant risk to the safety and health of the public; (3) Critical assets...

  12. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric... destroyed would cause significant risk to the safety and health of the public; (3) Critical assets...

  13. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  14. RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment and risk management initiatives described in this report are tools which will help make possible more efficient protection of the environment and human health. e expect to gain the following specific management advantages: isk assessment and risk management he...

  15. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT - 1/2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA¿s Risk Assessment Forum has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor d...

  16. Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Yasuo; Ogura, Isamu; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Naya, Masato; Ema, Makoto; Endoh, Shigehisa; Shimada, Manabu; Ogami, Akira; Myojyo, Toshihiko; Oyabu, Takako; Gamo, Masashi; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Igarashi, Takuya; Hanai, Sosuke

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold. PMID:25943334

  17. Preliminary Benefits Assessment of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, Jeff; Idris, Husni; Wing, David J.

    2012-01-01

    While en route, aircrews submit trajectory change requests to air traffic control (ATC) to better meet their objectives including reduced delays, reduced fuel burn, and passenger comfort. Aircrew requests are currently made with limited to no information on surrounding traffic. Consequently, these requests are uninformed about a key ATC objective, ensuring traffic separation, and therefore less likely to be accepted than requests informed by surrounding traffic and that avoids creating conflicts. This paper studies the benefits of providing aircrews with on-board decision support to generate optimized trajectory requests that are probed and cleared of known separation violations prior to issuing the request to ATC. These informed requests are referred to as traffic aware strategic aircrew requests (TASAR) and leverage traffic surveillance information available through Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In capability. Preliminary fast-time simulation results show increased benefits with longer stage lengths since beneficial trajectory changes can be applied over a longer distance. Also, larger benefits were experienced between large hub airports as compared to other airport sizes. On average, an aircraft equipped with TASAR reduced its travel time by about one to four minutes per operation and fuel burn by about 50 to 550 lbs per operation depending on the objective of the aircrew (time, fuel, or weighted combination of time and fuel), class of airspace user, and aircraft type. These preliminary results are based on analysis of approximately one week of traffic in July 2012 and additional analysis is planned on a larger data set to confirm these initial findings.

  18. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    PubMed

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment. PMID:27177823

  19. Various Assessments Utilized in California Preliminary Administrative Services Preparation Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erickson, Deborah E.

    2016-01-01

    Every two years, institutions sponsoring credentialing programs in California are required to submit a detailed biennial report, which includes data on at least four key assessments showing 1) candidate competence and/or 2) program efficacy. This article reports the types of assessments used from 25 institutions that completed biennial reports for…

  20. Preliminary Design and Fabrication Assessment for Two Solar Sail Candidates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weis, R.

    1977-01-01

    Primary emphasis is directed to the spinning sail design and fabrication assessment. Several methods of fabricating the spinning sail blades are presented and compared. Evaluations are made of each proposed design, as well as the baseline design. These efforts resulted in the recommendation of an apparent optimum design and fabrication plan with an assessment of the major advantages/disadvantages of each concept considered.

  1. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  2. Preliminary assessment report for Kent National Guard Facility (Installation 53065), 24410 Military Road, Kent, Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Ketels, P.; Aggarwal, P.; Rose, C.M.

    1993-08-01

    This report presents the results of the preliminary assessment (PA) conducted by Argonne National Laboratory at the Washington Army National Guard property in Kent, Washington. Preliminary assessments of federal facilities are being conducted to compile the information necessary for completing preremedial activities and to provide a basis for establishing corrective actions in response to releases of hazardous substances. The principal objective of the PA is to characterize the site accurately and determine the need for further action by examining site activities, quantities of hazardous substances present, and potential pathways by which contamination could affect public health and the environment.

  3. Dietary risk assessment of spinosad in China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Renjun; Dong, Jing; Zhang, Wenji; Chen, William L

    2007-10-01

    Spinosad is an insect control agent that is derived from a naturally occurring soil bacterium, and is effective on several classes of insects, especially Lepidoptera larvae. Spinosad consists mainly of a mixture of spinosyns A and D and is registered for uses on a variety of crops in many countries including China. In order to understand the residue behavior of spinosad and to evaluate the dietary risk of spinosad residue in food in China, a number of residue studies were conducted on cotton, Chinese cabbage and eggplant. Residue detection methods using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with ultraviolet (UV) detection have been validated for the detection of spinosad and its metabolites in cotton, Chinese cabbage and eggplant. The proposed definition of the residue for the estimation of spinosad dietary intake is the sum of spinosyns A and D. According to existing Chinese residue studies, the Supervised Trials Median Residues (STMRs) for cotton seed, Chinese cabbage and eggplant were less than 0.010, 0.103 and 0.045 mg/kg, respectively. Daily intake of spinosad residue in food was calculated by multiplying the pertinent Chinese food consumption data with the STMRs. Establishment of spinosad acceptable daily intake (ADI) of 0-0.02 mg/kg bw was based on a No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) of 2.4 mg/kg bw per day and a 100-fold safety factor. Therefore, only 2% of the spinosad ADI is occupied by spinosad dietary daily intake in the Chinese population. The proposed maximum residue limits (MRLs) for spinosad on cotton seed, Chinese cabbage and eggplant are 0.01, 2 and 0.5 mg/kg, respectively. Although the STMRs for cotton and Chinese cabbage are lower or equal to STMRs used by Codex, no STMR for eggplant was used by Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) when dietary risk assessment was carried out for spinosad. If these Chinese residue studies were considered during the Codex risk assessment process, the International Estimate Daily Intakes

  4. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  5. Distribution and preliminary exposure assessment of bisphenol AF (BPAF) in various environmental matrices around a manufacturing plant in China.

    PubMed

    Song, Shanjun; Ruan, Ting; Wang, Thanh; Liu, Runzeng; Jiang, Guibin

    2012-12-18

    Increasing attention has been paid to bisphenol A and bisphenol (BP) analogues due to high production volumes, wide usage and potential adverse effects. Bisphenol AF (BPAF) is considered a new bisphenol analogue which is used as raw material in plastic industry, but little is known about its occurrence in the environment and the potential associated risk. In this work, BPAF levels and environmental distribution were reported in samples collected around a manufacturing plant and a preliminary exposure risk assessment to local residents was conducted. BPAF was detected in most of the samples, with levels in river ranging between preliminary BPAF exposure assessment based on the CSOIL model suggested that children could have higher intake of BPAF than adults through inhalation of soils, dermal exposure by soils contact and bathing with well water. PMID:23151244

  6. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  7. Health Risk Assessment of Irradiated Topaz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin Lyle

    1991-06-01

    Radiation-produced blue topaz, indistinguishable from natural blue topaz, is produced by several different techniques. Published information on radionuclides present, activity levels, equipment necessary to detect activated nuclides and dosimetric assessment is lacking. Using a 60 megawatt nuclear reactor, fifty-one samples of colorless topaz from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India and Brazil were irradiated with thermal and fast neutron fluences ranging from 1.8 times 10 13 to 9.2 times 1018 neutrons cm^{-2}. Seventeen MeV electrons produced by a linear accelerator were also used to irradiate 36 colorless topaz from the same countries. Gamma ray or positron-emitting nuclides were identified using calibrated well-type NaI or germanium detectors. For germanium detectors having relative efficiencies of approximately 20 percent, an analysis time of one hour or more was needed. Geiger Mueller (G-M) detectors, scintillators (plastic and liquid), gas flow proportional counters, a ZnS detector and autoradiography techniques were used to measure charged particle activity. Isotopes produced from neutron activation included 182Ta, ^ {59}Fe, 46Sc, 51Cr, 54Mn, 124Sb, ^{32 }P, 77As, ^ {183}Ta, 77Ge, 72Ga, and ^{24 }Na. Possible nuclides produced from 17 MeV electron treatment include ^{68 }Ga, 64Cu, ^ {49}Cr, and 18F. Positive identification of the electron activated nuclides was not possible because of the short half-lives involved (<1 day). Of the possible pure beta emitters activated during neutron bombardment, 32P and 35S are the most likely to be produced. The identification of 32P was made using a three point beta absorption analysis with a G-M detector. Skin and breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for various sized topaz containing NRC exempt concentration levels. When compared to a negligible individual risk level (NIRL) of 10^{-7}, the risk of an irradiated topaz in contact with the skin or three inches from breast tissue was a small fraction of the NIRL. At a risk

  8. Assessment of Nano Cellulose from Peach Palm Residue as Potential Food Additive: Part II: Preliminary Studies.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Dayanne Regina Mendes; Mendonça, Márcia Helena; Helm, Cristiane Vieira; Magalhães, Washington L E; de Muniz, Graciela Ines Bonzon; Kestur, Satyanarayana G

    2015-09-01

    High consumption of dietary fibers in the diet is related to the reduction of the risk of non-transmitting of chronic diseases, prevention of the constipation etc. Rich diets in dietary fibers promote beneficial effects for the metabolism. Considering the above and recognizing the multifaceted advantages of nano materials, there have been many attempts in recent times to use the nano materials in the food sector including as food additive. However, whenever new product for human and animal consumption is developed, it has to be tested for their effectiveness regarding improvement in the health of consumers, safety aspects and side effects. However, before it is tried with human beings, normally such materials would be assessed through biological tests on a living organism to understand its effect on health condition of the consumer. Accordingly, based on the authors' finding reported in a previous paper, this paper presents body weight, biochemical (glucose, cholesterol and lipid profile in blood, analysis of feces) and histological tests carried out with biomass based cellulose nano fibrils prepared by the authors for its possible use as food additive. Preliminary results of the study with mice have clearly brought out potential of these fibers for the said purpose. PMID:26344977

  9. Issues in Violent Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.

    2005-01-01

    Realizing that the assessment of dangerousness with a yes/no format as a poor form of violent risk assessment has been the most important lesson learned about violence in the last 20 years. Further examining (a) what outcome and (b) how the indicators of the outcome should be measured has resulted in better violent risk assessment. The most…

  10. The Process of Suicide Risk Assessment: Twelve Core Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Granello, Darcy Haag

    2010-01-01

    Suicide risk assessment requires counselors to determine client risk factors, warning signs, and protective factors. The content of suicide assessment has received attention in the literature. The guiding principles of the process of suicide assessment, however, have not yet been articulated. This article contains 12 core process principles that…

  11. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisobutyl Phthalate (Dibp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In September 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DIBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested ...

  12. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    PubMed

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  13. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  14. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  15. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... to have a high degree of confidence. (b) How does the risk assessment handle interaction risks for... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems,...

  16. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  17. FRAMEWORK FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (EXTERNAL REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several reports have highlighted the importance of understanding the accumulation of risks from multiple environmental stressors. These include the National Research Councils 1994 report Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment and the 1997 report by the Presidential/Congressional...

  18. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, R. G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria.

  19. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  20. Dynamic Attack Tree Tool for Risk Assessments

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2012-03-13

    DATT enables interactive visualization, qualitative analysis and recording of cyber and other forms of risk. It facilitates dynamic risk-based approaches (as opposed to static compliance-based) to security and risk management in general. DATT allows decision makers to consistently prioritize risk mitigation strategies and quickly see where attention is most needed across the enterprise.

  1. Improving uncertainty analysis in European Union risk assessment of chemicals.

    PubMed

    Verdonck, Frederik A M; Souren, Astrid; van Asselt, Marjolein B A; Van Sprang, Patrick A; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2007-07-01

    Handling uncertainty in curren European Union (EU) risk assessment of new and existing substances is problematic for several reasons. The known or quantifiable sources of uncertainty are mainly considered. Uncertainty is insufficiently, explicitly communicated to risk managers and decision makers but hidden and concealed in risk quotient numbers that appear to be certain and, therefore, create a false sense of certainty and protectiveness. The new EU chemical policy legislation, REACH, is an opportunity to learn from interdisciplinary thinking in order to evolve to smart risk assessment: an assessment in which awareness and openness to uncertainty is used to produce better characterizations and evaluations of risks. In a smart risk assessment context, quantifying uncertainty is not an aim but just a productive means to refine the assessment or to find alternative solutions for the problem at stake. Guidance and examples are given on how to differentiate, assess, and use uncertainty. PMID:17695106

  2. Development of an agility assessment module for preliminary fighter design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ngan, Angelen; Bauer, Brent; Biezad, Daniel; Hahn, Andrew

    1996-01-01

    A FORTRAN computer program is presented to perform agility analysis on fighter aircraft configurations. This code is one of the modules of the NASA Ames ACSYNT (AirCraft SYNThesis) design code. The background of the agility research in the aircraft industry and a survey of a few agility metrics are discussed. The methodology, techniques, and models developed for the code are presented. FORTRAN programs were developed for two specific metrics, CCT (Combat Cycle Time) and PM (Pointing Margin), as part of the agility module. The validity of the code was evaluated by comparing with existing flight test data. Example trade studies using the agility module along with ACSYNT were conducted using Northrop F-20 Tigershark and McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet aircraft models. The sensitivity of thrust loading and wing loading on agility criteria were investigated. The module can compare the agility potential between different configurations and has the capability to optimize agility performance in the preliminary design process. This research provides a new and useful design tool for analyzing fighter performance during air combat engagements.

  3. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

  5. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  6. ByMuR model: interaction and uncertainty treatment in long-term seismic and volcanic risk assessments in Naples, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selva, Jacopo

    2013-04-01

    Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key points of multi-risk assessment are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. Within the framework of the Italian project "ByMuR - Bayesian Multi-Risk assessment", a formal model (ByMuR model) to assess multi-risk for a target area is under development, aiming (i) to treat interaction among different hazardous phenomena, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels, and (ii) to explicitly account for all uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) through a Bayesian approach. Here, it is presented the preliminary development of the ByMuR model. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through a preliminary application to seismic and volcanic long-term risks in Naples (Italy). In particular, volcanic (ash fall) and seismic (ground shaking) long-term risks are assessed in different areas of the city, accounting for interaction and epistemic uncertainties. In these areas, the impact of interactions on long-term risk assessments is specifically quantified, assessing the bias of single-risk assessments (assuming no interaction) and comparing it with uncertainties. Finally, the impact of epistemic uncertainties and interactions in long-term risk hierarchization is discussed.

  7. [Research progress on index system of regional ecological risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Meng, Ji-Jun; Zhao, Chun-Hong

    2009-04-01

    Regional ecological risk assessment (RERA) covers the assessments of multiple risk sources, receptors, and endpoints, while the selection of assessment indices is quite complicated, being a hotspot in regional environment management research. Domestic and international researches on RERA revealed that three processes in RERA are of vital, i.e., risk probability assessment measured by risk probability index, status and value assessment of ecosystem at regional scale indicated by ecological index, and vulnerability assessment of each ecosystem in a region under risk measured by vulnerability index. The main problems in the establishment of RERA index system are the strong subjectivity and poor comparability, and thus, the index system should be set up in the three key processes under the principles of objectivity, integration, hierarchy, and comparability. Due to the fact that the status and value assessment of ecosystem is most complicated, the index system should be formulated by compulsory and optional components to increase the comparability of RERA results between regions. PMID:19565785

  8. Barriers to household investment in residential energy conservation: preliminary assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, W.L.

    1982-12-01

    A general assessment of the range of barriers which impede household investments in weatherization and other energy efficiency improvements for their homes is provided. The relationship of similar factors to households' interest in receiving a free energy audits examined. Rates of return that underly household investments in major conservation improvements are assessed. A special analysis of household knowledge of economically attractive investments is provided that compares high payback improvements specified by the energy audit with the list of needed or desirable conservation improvements identified by respondents. (LEW)

  9. Preliminary Testing of a Program to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes among High-Risk Youth.(research Papers)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grey, Margaret; Berry, Diane; Davidson, Maryanne; Galasso, Pam; Gustafson, Elaine; Melkus, Gail

    2004-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes is increasing among youth, with minority youth at highest risk. This preliminary study tested the feasibility of a school-based program to prevent type 2 diabetes in youth at risk. Forty-one participants (age 12.6 [+ or -] 1.1 years; 63% female, 51% African American, 44% Hispanic, and 5% Caucasian) were randomly assigned to one of…

  10. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  11. Radiation-induced radioresistance of mammals and risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, O.; Yonezawa, M.

    It is shown experimentally that a preliminary low dose exposure can induce radioresistance in mice in two (early and late) periods after preirradiation. The manifestation of such effects is reduced mortality of pre-exposed specimens after challenge acute irradiation, the reason of the animal death being the hematopoietic subsyndrome of the acute radiation syndrome. Therefore, proceeding from the radiobiological concept of the critical system, the theoretical investigation of the influence of preirradiation on mammalian radiosensitivity is conducted by making use of mathematical models of the vital body system, hematopoiesis. Modeling results make it possible to elucidate the mechanisms of the radioprotection effect of low level priming irradiation on mammals. Specifically, the state of acquired radioresistance in mice is caused by reduced radiosensitivity of lymphopoietic and thrombocytopoietic systems in the early period and by reduced radiosensitivity of granulocytopoietic system in the late period after preirradiation. It is important to emphasize that the evaluations of the duration of the early and late periods of postirradiation radioresistance in mice, carried out on the basis of the modeling and experimental investigations, practically coincide. All this demonstrates the effectiveness of joint modeling and experimental methods in studies and predictions of modification effects of preirradiation on mammalian radiosensitivity. The results obtained show the importance of accounting such effects in radiation risk assessments for cosmonauts and astronauts on long-term missions.

  12. Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, Robert C.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

  13. An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

  14. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    SciTech Connect

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  15. Some Nigerian Anti-Tuberculosis Ethnomedicines: A Preliminary Efficacy Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Ibekwe, Nneka N.; Nvau, John B.; Oladosu, Peters O.; Usman, Auwal M.; Ibrahim, Kolo; Boshoff, Helena I.; Dowd, Cynthia S.; Orisadipe, Abayomi T.; Aiyelaagbe, Olapeju; Adesomoju, Akinbo A.; Barry, Clifton E.; Okogun, Joseph I.

    2014-01-01

    Ethnopharmacological significance Nigerian herbalists possess indigenous ethnomedicinal recipes for the management of tuberculosis and related ailments. Aim of the study To carry out a collaborative preliminary modern scientific evaluation of the efficacy of some Nigerian ethnomedicines used by traditional medicine practitioners (TMPs) in the management of tuberculosis and related ailments Materials and methods Ethnomedicinal recipes (ETMs) were collected from TMPs from locations in various ecological zones of Nigeria under a collaborative understanding. The aqueous methanolic extracts of the ETMs were screened against Mycobacterium bovis, BCG and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb.) strain H37Rv using the broth microdilution method. Results Extracts of ETMs screened against BCG showed 69% activity against the organism. The activities varied from weak, ≤ 2500μg /mL to highly active, 33μg /mL 64% of the extracts were active against M. tb. The activities of the extracts against M.tb. varied from weak, ≤ 2500μg /mL to highly active, 128μg/mL. There was 77% agreement in results obtained using BCG or M. tb. as test organisms Conclusion The results show clear evidence for the efficacy of the majority of indigenous Nigerian herbal recipes in the ethnomedicinal management of tuberculosis and related ailments. BCG may be effectively used, to a great extent, as the organism for screening for potential anti-M. tb. agents. A set of prioritization criteria for the selection of plants for initial further studies for the purpose of antituberculsis drug discovery research is proposed. PMID:24911338

  16. Examining the Implicit Relational Assessment Procedure: Four Preliminary Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drake, Chad E.; Kellum, Karen Kate; Wilson, Kelly G.; Luoma, Jason B.; Weinstein, Jonathan H.; Adams, Catherine H.

    2010-01-01

    The Implicit Relational Assessment Procedure (IRAP) is a relatively new measure of implicit cognition that tests cognition as relational behavior instead of an associative activity and thus may provide a more specific measure of cognitive repertoires, including those for social biases, than better known implicit measures such as the Implicit…

  17. IRIS Toxicological Review of Dibutyl Phthalate (Dbp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In January 2015, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DBP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  18. IRIS Toxicological Review of Hexabromocyclododecane (Hbcd)(Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In March 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for HBCD to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in c...

  19. IRIS Toxicological Review of Diisononyl Phthalate (Dinp) (Preliminary Assessment Materials)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In August 2014, EPA released the draft literature searches and associated search strategies, evidence tables, and exposure response arrays for DINP to obtain input from stakeholders and the public prior to developing the draft IRIS assessment. Specifically, EPA was interested in ...

  20. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THREE NCO LEADERSHIP PREPARATION TRAINING SYSTEMS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    HOOD, PAUL D.; AND OTHERS

    THREE ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP TRAINING SYSTEMS WERE STUDIED TO EVALUATE WHAT MIGHT BE THE MOST FEASIBLE METHOD OF IDENTIFYING AND TRAINING POTENTIAL JUNIOR NONCOMMISSIONED OFFICERS, AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE IN THEIR ARMY CAREERS. TRAINING OBJECTIVES WERE DEFINED AND TRAINING MATERIALS AND ASSESSMENT DEVICES WERE DEVELOPED AND REFINED FOR APPLICATION IN…