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Sample records for pressure risk model

  1. Dynamic prediction model and risk assessment chart for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure and baseline risk factors.

    PubMed

    Teramukai, Satoshi; Okuda, Yasuyuki; Miyazaki, Shigeru; Kawamori, Ryuzo; Shirayama, Masayuki; Teramoto, Tamio

    2016-02-01

    For patients with hypertension, an individual risk prediction tool for cardiovascular disease based on on-treatment blood pressure is needed and would be useful. The objective of this study was to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease based on data from 13 052 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease in the Olmesartan Mega study to determine the relationship between Cardiovascular Endpoints and Blood Pressure Goal Achievement study. To develop dynamic prediction models including on-treatment blood pressure, a Cox proportional hazard model using the sliding landmarking method with three landmark points (6, 12 and 18 months from baseline) was used. The prediction model included blood pressure (<130/85 mm Hg, ⩾130/85  to <140/90 mm Hg, ⩾140/90 to <160/100 mm Hg and ⩾160/100 mm Hg) as a time-dependent covariate and well-known baseline risk factors (sex, age, smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and diabetes) as covariates. The 3-year risk assessment chart was constructed using the combination of all risk factors in the prediction model, and six different colors were displayed on each chart corresponding to the predicted probability of cardiovascular disease. Judging from the chart, if an elderly man with diabetes and other risk factors had a blood pressure of <130/85 mm Hg at 6 months, the risk of cardiovascular disease would be 8.0%, whereas the risk would be 8.6% if he had a blood pressure of ⩾130/85 to <140/90 mm Hg. The risk assessment chart developed from the large-scale observational study data would help physicians to more easily assess the cardiovascular disease risk for hypertensive patients on antihypertensive treatments. PMID:26606874

  2. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure

    MedlinePlus

    ... the NHLBI on Twitter. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure Anyone can develop high blood pressure; however, age, ... can increase your risk for developing high blood pressure. Age Blood pressure tends to rise with age. About 65 ...

  3. Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_158731.html Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk Odds increase with rapid rise in middle ... overall pattern to predict a patient's risk of stroke or early death, new research suggests. "Our study ...

  4. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  5. Blood Pressure Patterns May Predict Stroke Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. High blood pressure is the number one risk ... of epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Andrew Rogove, M.D., Ph.D., medical director, ...

  6. Blood pressure targets and absolute cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Odutayo, Ayodele; Rahimi, Kazem; Hsiao, Allan J; Emdin, Connor A

    2015-08-01

    In the Eighth Joint National Committee guideline on hypertension, the threshold for the initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment for elderly adults (≥60 years) without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus was raised from 140/90 mm Hg to 150/90 mm Hg. However, the committee was not unanimous in this decision, particularly because a large proportion of adults ≥60 years may be at high cardiovascular risk. On the basis of Eighth Joint National Committee guideline, we sought to determine the absolute 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease among these adults through analyzing the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2012). The primary outcome measure was the proportion of adults who were at ≥20% predicted absolute cardiovascular risk and above goals for the Seventh Joint National Committee guideline but reclassified as at target under the Eighth Joint National Committee guideline (reclassified). The Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score was used. From 2005 to 2012, the surveys included 12 963 adults aged 30 to 74 years with blood pressure measurements, of which 914 were reclassified based on the guideline. Among individuals reclassified as not in need of additional treatment, the proportion of adults 60 to 74 years without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus at ≥20% absolute risk was 44.8%. This corresponds to 0.8 million adults. The proportion at high cardiovascular risk remained sizable among adults who were not receiving blood pressure-lowering treatment. Taken together, a sizable proportion of reclassified adults 60 to 74 years without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus was at ≥20% absolute cardiovascular risk. PMID:26056340

  7. Radiation risk estimation models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D.G.

    1987-11-01

    Cancer risk models and their relationship to ionizing radiation are discussed. There are many model assumptions and risk factors that have a large quantitative impact on the cancer risk estimates. Other health end points such as mental retardation may be an even more serious risk than cancer for those with in utero exposures. 8 references.

  8. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Modeling of Intracranial Pressure Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Richard L.; Sullivan, Humbert G.; Miller, J. Douglas

    1978-01-01

    Digital computer simulation is utilized to test hypotheses regarding poorly understood mechanisms of intracranial pressure change. The simulation produces graphic output similar to records from polygraph recorders used in patient monitoring and in animal experimentation. The structure of the model is discussed. The mathematic model perfected by the comparison between simulation and experiment will constitute a formulation of medical information applicable to automated clinical monitoring and treatment of intracranial hypertension.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  11. ''Swiss cheese'' models with pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Bona, C.; Stela, J.

    1987-11-15

    Local spherically symmetric inhomogeneities are matched to a spatially flat Robertson-Walker background with pressure. In the cases in which the background evolves to an Einstein--de Sitter dust universe, the interior metrics tend with time either to the vacuum Schwarzschild solution or to the spatially flat Tolman dust metrics. The whole construction may be interpreted as the history of the dust-filled ''Swiss cheese'' models.

  12. Blood pressure variability: a novel and important risk factor.

    PubMed

    Floras, John S

    2013-05-01

    Blood pressure is a continuous, not a static, variable. Individuals exhibiting similar clinic or home blood pressure can differ considerably with respect to their average day and nighttime values, beat-by-beat blood pressure variation during wakefulness and sleep, responses to mental and physical stimuli, and intersession and seasonal variation. There now is evidence that several such representations of blood pressure variability, if augmented, increase cardiovascular risk independent of the average of conventionally acquired blood pressure readings. As well, recent retrospective analyses of published trial data have concluded that antihypertensive drug classes differ in their effects on intersession blood pressure variability and associated risk of stroke. If the goal of the hypertension community is to optimize personalized cardiovascular risk assessment and to attenuate fully such risk, future efforts should be directed at determining which representation of blood pressure variability estimates individual cardiovascular risk best, establishing "normal" and "high- risk" variability distributions, testing the hypothesis that attenuating such variability specifically through drug or device therapy reduces cardiovascular risk more than blood pressure reduction per se, and integrating such data into clinical practice. PMID:23618505

  13. General Pressurization Model in Simscape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Servin, Mario; Garcia, Vicky

    2010-01-01

    System integration is an essential part of the engineering design process. The Ares I Upper Stage (US) is a complex system which is made up of thousands of components assembled into subsystems including a J2-X engine, liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LO2) tanks, avionics, thrust vector control, motors, etc. System integration is the task of connecting together all of the subsystems into one large system. To ensure that all the components will "fit together" as well as safety and, quality, integration analysis is required. Integration analysis verifies that, as an integrated system, the system will behave as designed. Models that represent the actual subsystems are built for more comprehensive analysis. Matlab has been an instrument widely use by engineers to construct mathematical models of systems. Simulink, one of the tools offered by Matlab, provides multi-domain graphical environment to simulate and design time-varying systems. Simulink is a powerful tool to analyze the dynamic behavior of systems over time. Furthermore, Simscape, a tool provided by Simulink, allows users to model physical (such as mechanical, thermal and hydraulic) systems using physical networks. Using Simscape, a model representing an inflow of gas to a pressurized tank was created where the temperature and pressure of the tank are measured over time to show the behavior of the gas. By further incorporation of Simscape into model building, the full potential of this software can be discovered and it hopefully can become a more utilized tool.

  14. The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure

    PubMed Central

    Leung, Brian; Mandrak, Nicholas E

    2007-01-01

    Invasive species are increasingly becoming a policy priority. This has spurred researchers and managers to try to estimate the risk of invasion. Conceptually, invasions are dependent both on the receiving environment (invasibility) and on the ability to reach these new areas (propagule pressure). However, analyses of risk typically examine only one or the other. Here, we develop and apply a joint model of invasion risk that simultaneously incorporates invasibility and propagule pressure. We present arguments that the behaviour of these two elements of risk differs substantially—propagule pressure is a function of time, whereas invasibility is not—and therefore have different management implications. Further, we use the well-studied zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) to contrast predictions made using the joint model to those made by separate invasibility and propagule pressure models. We show that predictions of invasion progress as well as of the long-term invasion pattern are strongly affected by using a joint model. PMID:17711834

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  16. Non-invasive model-based estimation of aortic pulse pressure using suprasystolic brachial pressure waveforms.

    PubMed

    Lowe, A; Harrison, W; El-Aklouk, E; Ruygrok, P; Al-Jumaily, A M

    2009-09-18

    Elevated central arterial (aortic) blood pressure is related to increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods of non-invasively estimating this pressure would therefore be helpful in clinical practice. To achieve this goal, a physics-based model is derived to correlate the arterial pressure under a suprasystolic upper-arm cuff to the aortic pressure. The model assumptions are particularly applicable to the measurement method and result in a time-domain relation with two parameters, namely, the wave propagation transit time and the reflection coefficient at the cuff. Central pressures estimated by the model were derived from completely automatic, non-invasive measurement of brachial blood pressure and suprasystolic waveform and were compared to simultaneous invasive catheter measurements in 16 subjects. Systolic blood pressure agreement, mean (standard deviation) of difference was -1 (7)mmHg. Diastolic blood pressure agreement was 4 (4)mmHg. Correlation between estimated and actual central waveforms was greater than 90%. Individualization of model parameters did not significantly improve systolic and diastolic pressure agreement, but increased waveform correlation. Further research is necessary to confirm that more accurate brachial pressure measurement improves central pressure estimation. PMID:19665136

  17. Pressure ulcer risk of patient handling sling use.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Matthew J; Kahn, Julie A; Kerrigan, Michael V; Gutmann, Joseph M; Harrow, Jeffrey J

    2015-01-01

    Patient handling slings and lifts reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injuries for healthcare providers. However, no published evidence exists of their safety with respect to pressure ulceration for vulnerable populations, specifically persons with spinal cord injury, nor do any studies compare slings for pressure distribution. High-resolution interface pressure mapping was used to describe and quantify risks associated with pressure ulceration due to normal forces and identify at-risk anatomical locations. We evaluated 23 patient handling slings with 4 nondisabled adults. Sling-participant interface pressures were recorded while participants lay supine on a hospital bed and while suspended during typical patient transfers. Sling-participant interface pressures were greatest while suspended for all seated and supine slings and exceeded 200 mm Hg for all seated slings. Interface pressures were greatest along the sling seams (edges), regardless of position or sling type. The anatomical areas most at risk while participants were suspended in seated slings were the posterior upper and lower thighs. For supine slings, the perisacral area, ischial tuberosities, and greater trochanters were most at risk. The duration of time spent in slings, especially while suspended, should be limited. PMID:26237005

  18. Acute radiation risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, Olga

    Biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lineages (the thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems) in acutely/chronically irradiated humans are developed. These models are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations, which variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning. It is shown that the developed models are capable of reproducing clinical data on the dynamics of these systems in humans exposed to acute radiation in the result of incidents and accidents, as well as in humans exposed to low-level chronic radiation. Moreover, the averaged value of the "lethal" dose rates of chronic irradiation evaluated within models of these four major hematopoietic lineages coincides with the real minimal dose rate of lethal chronic irradiation. The demonstrated ability of the models of the human thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems to predict the dynamical response of these systems to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates implies that these mathematical models form an universal tool for the investigation and prediction of the dynamics of the major human hematopoietic lineages for a vast pattern of irradiation scenarios. In particular, these models could be applied for the radiation risk assessment for health of astronauts exposed to space radiation during long-term space missions, such as voyages to Mars or Lunar colonies, as well as for health of people exposed to acute/chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events.

  19. Mental Models of Security Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asgharpour, Farzaneh; Liu, Debin; Camp, L. Jean

    In computer security, risk communication refers to informing computer users about the likelihood and magnitude of a threat. Efficacy of risk communication depends not only on the nature of the risk, but also on the alignment between the conceptual model embedded in the risk communication and the user's mental model of the risk. The gap between the mental models of security experts and non-experts could lead to ineffective risk communication. Our research shows that for a variety of the security risks self-identified security experts and non-experts have different mental models. We propose that the design of the risk communication methods should be based on the non-expert mental models.

  20. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  1. Modeling the pressure-dilatation correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarkar, S.

    1991-01-01

    It is generally accepted that pressure dilatation, which is an additional compressibility term in turbulence transport equations, may be important for high speed flows. Recent direct simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence have given concrete evidence that the pressure dilatation is important insofar that it contributes to the reduced growth of turbulent kinetic energy due to compressibility effects. The problem of modeling pressure dilatation is addressed. A component of the pressure dilatation is isolated which exhibits temporal oscillations and, using direct numerical simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence and isotropic turbulence, show that it has a negligible contribution to the evolution of turbulent kinetic energy. Then, an analysis for the case of homogeneous turbulence is performed to obtain a model for the nonoscillatory pressure dilatation. This model algebraically relates the pressure dilatation to quantities traditionally obtained in incompressible turbulence closures. The model is validated by direct comparison with the pressure dilatation data obtained from the simulations.

  2. [Risk assessment for pressure ulcer in critical patients].

    PubMed

    Gomes, Flávia Sampaio Latini; Bastos, Marisa Antonini Ribeiro; Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido; Temponi, Hanrieti Rotelli; Velásquez-Meléndez, Gustavo

    2011-04-01

    Bedridden patients are in risk to developing pressure ulcers and represent a priority group to be studied to identify this condition. To reach this goal, specific instruments are used to assess this problem. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk factors to developing pressure ulcers in adult patients hospitalized in ICUs. This is a sectional analytical study, in which evaluations were performed on 140 patients, hospitalized in 22 ICUs, using the Braden scale. Results showed that patients hospitalized from 15 days or more showed some level of risk. The highest frequencies of pressure ulcers were found in patients in the following categories: sensorial perception (completely limited), moistness (constantly moist), mobility (completely immobilized), activity (bedridden), nutrition (adequate) and friction and shear (problem). In conclusion, the use of this scale is an important strategy when providing care to patients in intensive treatment. PMID:21655778

  3. Hyperhomocysteinemia in preeclampsia is associated to higher risk pressure profiles.

    PubMed

    Noto, R; Neri, S; Noto, Z; Cilio, D; Abate, G; Noto, P; Pepi, F; Leanza, A; Molino, G

    2003-01-01

    Homocysteine levels have been determined with Chromatography on HPLC column, between the 20th and the 24th week of pregnancy, in women with analogous characteristics (a) normotensive, (b) with pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), low (LR), medium (MR), high risk (HR). The group they belonged to was confirmed after natural or caesarean delivery. All the patients were submitted to 24 hour blood pressure monitoring for the evaluation of further pressure risk parameters: mean arterial pressure (MAP), non dippers, percentages of pressure peaks. Homocysteine levels in normotensive pregnant women (5.8 +/- 1.7 microM) were low. Significant high levels of homocysteine were present proportionally to the risk degree of PIH. Higher levels of homocysteine statistically significant were present in non dippers of all groups (MR p < 0.05; HR p < 0.01). A direct correlation between plasmatic homocisteine levels and pressure profiles was found out in non dippers (r = 0.56, r = 0.55, r = 0.50 respectively) and in dippers (r = 0.7, r = 0.75, r = 0.60 respectively), and also between levels of homocysteine, MAP value, and pathological percentages of systolic and diastolic nocturnal peaks. In pregnant women presenting preeclampsia afterwards, high levels of homocysteine were not different from mean values present in high risk PIH pregnant women (13.3 +/- 1.9 vs. 16.4 +/- 1.7 microM). High levels of homocysteine early determined in the second trimester of PIH pregnancies seem to be associated to a pregnancy higher risk, coexisting with dangerous pressure profiles. High levels confirm a pregnant woman to belong to a higher or lower risk degree of vascular damage, but in the same group context high levels of homocisteine do not allow to identify those pregnant women who will develop eclampsia. PMID:14650644

  4. More Young Adults at Risk for High Blood Pressure | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    MedlinePlus

    ... Feature: High Blood Pressure More Young Adults at Risk for High Blood Pressure Past Issues / Fall 2011 ... high blood pressure. NIH-funded analysis indicates higher risk for young adults than previously believed. With more ...

  5. New Zealand Seismic Risk Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molas, G.; Aslani, H.; Bryngelson, J.; Khan, Z.

    2006-12-01

    A seismic risk model for New Zealand has been developed to assisted insurers and reinsurers in assessing their financial risk posed by earthquakes. This presentation summarizes the methodology and data within the model and includes a discussion of the key results from the hazard and risk perspectives. The earthquake, risk-model framework has four components. First, the stochastic event set is determined, as well as its associated event probabilities. A ground-motion model including geotechnical data is added to complete the seismic hazard model. To determine risk, regional building vulnerability curves and a financial model are incorporated. An insurer property exposure database was developed to determine the insured seismic risk in these countries. Using this model, examination of resulting hazard maps (200, 475, 1000 and 2500 years) and of city-level, hazard-curves gives insight to the key drivers of risk across the region. Hazard de-aggregation allow for examination of key drivers of risk in terms of seismic sources, event magnitude and events types. Examination of loss costs for residential and commercial (short and mid-rise) structures gives insight into the risk perspective for these various lines of business. Finally, incorporation of the insurer property exposure allows for an examination of the insured risk across the region and between exposure concentrations including Wellington, Auckland and Christchurch.

  6. Risk Associated with Pulse Pressure on Out-of-Office Blood Pressure Measurement

    PubMed Central

    Gu, Yu-Mei; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Liu, Yan-Ping; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W.; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases with pulse pressure (PP). However, PP remains an elusive cardiovascular risk factor with findings being inconsistent between studies. The 2013 ESH/ESC guideline proposed that PP is useful in stratification and suggested a threshold of 60 mm Hg, which is 10 mm Hg higher compared to that in the 2007 guideline; however, no justification for this increase was provided. Methodology Published thresholds of PP are based on office blood pressure measurement and often on arbitrary categorical analyses. In the International Database on Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO) and the International Database on HOme blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome (IDHOCO), we determined outcome-driven thresholds for PP based on ambulatory or home blood pressure measurement, respectively. Results The main findings were that for people aged <60 years, PP did not refine risk stratification, whereas in older people the thresholds were 64 and 76 mm Hg for the ambulatory and home PP, respectively. However, PP provided little added predictive value over and beyond classical risk factors. PMID:26587443

  7. Modeling Scala Media as a Pressure Vessel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lepage, Eric; Olofsson, A.˚Ke

    2011-11-01

    The clinical condition known as endolymphatic hydrops is the swelling of scala media and may result in loss in hearing sensitivity consistent with other forms of low-frequency biasing. Because outer hair cells (OHCs) are displacement-sensitive and hearing levels tend to be preserved despite large changes in blood pressure and CSF pressure, it seems unlikely that the OHC respond passively to changes in static pressures in the chambers. This suggests the operation of a major feedback control loop which jointly regulates homeostasis and hearing sensitivity. Therefore the internal forces affecting the cochlear signal processing amplifier cannot be just motile responses. A complete account of the cochlear amplifier must include static pressures. To this end we have added a third, pressure vessel to our 1-D 140-segment, wave-digital filter active model of cochlear mechanics, incorporating the usual nonlinear forward transduction. In each segment the instantaneous pressure is the sum of acoustic pressure and global static pressure. The object of the model is to maintain stable OHC operating point despite any global rise in pressure in the third chamber. Such accumulated pressure is allowed to dissipate exponentially. In this first 3-chamber implementation we explore the possibility that acoustic pressures are rectified. The behavior of the model is critically dependent upon scaling factors and time-constants, yet by initial assumption, the pressure tends to accumulate in proportion to sound level. We further explore setting of the control parameters so that the accumulated pressure either stays within limits or may rise without bound.

  8. PTA1 Helium Pressurization System Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steadman, Todd; Majumdar, Alok; Holt, Kimberly

    1999-01-01

    A transient model of the Propulsion Test Article 1 (PTA1) Helium Pressurization System was developed using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The model included feed lines from the facility interface to the engine purge interface and Liquid Oxygen (LOX) and Rocket Propellant 1 (RP-1) tanks, the propellant tanks themselves including ullage space and propellant feed lines to their respective pump interfaces. GFSSPs capability was extended to model a control valve to maintain ullage pressure within a specified limit and pressurization processes such as heat transfer between ullage gas, propellant and the tank wall. The purpose of the model is to predict the flow system characteristics in the entire pressurization system during 80 seconds of pre-pressurization operation, 420 seconds of pressurization stand-by operation and 150 seconds of engine operation. Subsequent to the work presented here, the PTA1 model has been updated to include the LOX and RP-1 pumps, while the pressurization option itself has been modified to include the effects of mass transfer. This updated model will be compared with PTA1 test data as it becomes available.

  9. Fiber bundle model under fluid pressure.

    PubMed

    Amitrano, David; Girard, Lucas

    2016-03-01

    Internal fluid pressure often plays an important role in the rupture of brittle materials. This is a major concern for many engineering applications and for natural hazards. More specifically, the mechanisms through which fluid pressure, applied at a microscale, can enhance the failure at a macroscale and accelerate damage dynamics leading to failure remains unclear. Here we revisit the fiber bundle model by accounting for the effect of fluid under pressure that contributes to the global load supported by the fiber bundle. Fluid pressure is applied on the broken fibers, following Biot's theory. The statistical properties of damage avalanches and their evolution toward macrofailure are analyzed for a wide range of fluid pressures. The macroscopic strength of the new model appears to be strongly controlled by the action of the fluid, particularly when the fluid pressure becomes comparable with the fiber strength. The behavior remains consistent with continuous transition, i.e., second order, including for large pressure. The main change concerns the damage acceleration toward the failure that is well modeled by the concept of sweeping of an instability. When pressure is increased, the exponent β characterizing the power-law distribution avalanche sizes significantly decreases and the exponent γ characterizing the cutoff divergence when failure is approached significantly increases. This proves that fluid pressure plays a key role in failure process acting as destabilization factor. This indicates that macrofailure occurs more readily under fluid pressure, with a behavior that becomes progressively unstable as fluid pressure increases. This may have considerable consequences on our ability to forecast failure when fluid pressure is acting. PMID:27078437

  10. Fiber bundle model under fluid pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amitrano, David; Girard, Lucas

    2016-03-01

    Internal fluid pressure often plays an important role in the rupture of brittle materials. This is a major concern for many engineering applications and for natural hazards. More specifically, the mechanisms through which fluid pressure, applied at a microscale, can enhance the failure at a macroscale and accelerate damage dynamics leading to failure remains unclear. Here we revisit the fiber bundle model by accounting for the effect of fluid under pressure that contributes to the global load supported by the fiber bundle. Fluid pressure is applied on the broken fibers, following Biot's theory. The statistical properties of damage avalanches and their evolution toward macrofailure are analyzed for a wide range of fluid pressures. The macroscopic strength of the new model appears to be strongly controlled by the action of the fluid, particularly when the fluid pressure becomes comparable with the fiber strength. The behavior remains consistent with continuous transition, i.e., second order, including for large pressure. The main change concerns the damage acceleration toward the failure that is well modeled by the concept of sweeping of an instability. When pressure is increased, the exponent β characterizing the power-law distribution avalanche sizes significantly decreases and the exponent γ characterizing the cutoff divergence when failure is approached significantly increases. This proves that fluid pressure plays a key role in failure process acting as destabilization factor. This indicates that macrofailure occurs more readily under fluid pressure, with a behavior that becomes progressively unstable as fluid pressure increases. This may have considerable consequences on our ability to forecast failure when fluid pressure is acting.

  11. RISK 0301 - MOLECULAR MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment practices, in general, for a range of diseases now encourages the use of mechanistic data to enhance the ability to predict responses at low, environmental exposures. In particular, the pathway from normal biology to pathologic state can be dcscribed by a set of m...

  12. Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework

    PubMed Central

    Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos MGA; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees WJ; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Aim To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. Background A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Design Consensus study. Method A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010–December 2011. Findings The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. Conclusion The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. PMID:24845398

  13. Cardiac risk factors: new cholesterol and blood pressure management guidelines.

    PubMed

    Anthony, David; George, Paul; Eaton, Charles B

    2014-06-01

    The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines depart from low-density lipoprotein (LDL) treatment targets and recommend treating four specific patient groups with statins. Statins are the only cholesterol-lowering drugs with randomized trial evidence of benefit for preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The groups are patients with clinical ASCVD; patients ages 40 to 75 years with diabetes and LDL of 70 to 189 mg/dL but no clinical ASCVD; patients 21 years or older with LDL levels of 190 mg/dL or higher; and patients ages 40 to 75 years with LDL of 70 to 189 mg/dL without clinical ASCVD or diabetes but with 10-year ASCVD risk of 7.5% or higher. Ten-year ASCVD risk may be calculated using the Pooled Cohort Equations. The Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8) guidelines for blood pressure management recommend a blood pressure goal of less than 140/90 mm Hg for all adults except those 60 years or older. For the latter group, the JNC 8 recommends a systolic blood pressure goal of less than 150 mm Hg. In another notable change from prior guidelines, the JNC 8 recommends relaxing the systolic blood pressure goal for patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease to less than 140 mm Hg from less than 130 mm Hg. PMID:24936717

  14. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Modeling of parenteral container headspace pressure.

    PubMed

    Bryant, P L

    1998-01-01

    When containers and related closure systems holding fluids are heated, internal pressures are generated. Depending upon conditions, surprisingly high pressures can be developed. These pressures are often sufficient to break system integrity. Numerous factors combine to determine the pressure generated within the container and closure system. Each of these factors can vary during the manufacture and service life of the product. Prudent pharmaceutical design seeks to set and control all the factors in such a manner that container and related closure integrity are maintained from the time of assembly to the time of use. Answers can be obtained by pure experimentation ("cut, try, recut and retry until it comes out right") or by predicting performance with a good mathematical model and testing once to verify the model. Pure experimentation requires extensive prototype parts and testing thereof. The mathematical model approach is more exact and produces a better product quicker and at lower cost. This paper uses a simple tubing vial to demonstrate the two approaches to controlling internal pressures from assembly to use. A mathematical model with experimental verification produces high confidence that the system integrity will be maintained as desired. The model used to predict the headspace pressure of the tubing vial is of significance in estimating performance of similar containers and related closures. It can rapidly produce product with predictable behavior. As such, the model is an excellent tool for designers of pharmaceutical products. PMID:9691675

  6. Concordance of Shape Risk Scale, a new pressure ulcer risk tool, with Braden Scale.

    PubMed

    Soppi, Esa T; Iivanainen, Ansa K; Korhonen, Pasi A

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of pressure ulcers was examined in a cross-sectional study in 23 health care facilities and in home care involving 548 patients. The screening of pressure ulcer risk was assessed simultaneously using the Braden Scale and the new Shape Risk Scale (SRS), and the results were compared. The overall prevalence of pressure ulcers in the study population was 15·5% (85/548). The Braden Scale was performed as described in the literature. The direct concordance of the Braden and SRS scales was 46%. In more than 90% of cases, the SRS classified patients as well as or better than the Braden Scale. The SRS allocates patients significantly different from the Braden Scale into the risk categories, especially the difference is significant between the low and medium-risk categories. The greatest advantage of SRS to Braden Scale is that it correctly identifies patients with low risk of pressure ulcers. It is interesting that the two risk scores, taking into consideration the basically different pathophysiological factors, can still give rather similar results. The users considered that both scales are easy to use. PMID:24751183

  7. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  8. Comparing visual and objective skin assessment with pressure injury risk.

    PubMed

    Borzdynski, Caroline J; McGuiness, William; Miller, Charne

    2016-08-01

    Contemporary approaches to pressure injury (PI) risk identification rely on the use of risk assessment tools and visual skin assessment. Objective biophysical measures that assess skin hydration, melanin, erythema and lipids have not been traditionally used in PI risk; however, these may prove useful as a risk assessment tool. The relationship between subjective visual assessments of skin condition, biophysical measures and PI risk warrants investigation. This study used a descriptive correlational design to examine the relationship between measures of skin hydration, colour (melanin and erythema) and lipids at PI-prone areas amongst geriatric persons (n = 38), obtained using biophysical skin measures and visual skin assessment. Twice daily measures of epidermal hydration, colour and lipids were assessed using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic (Courage + Khazaka GmBH, Cologne, Germany) over pressure-prone areas of the body of study participants over seven consecutive days. Concurrent visual assessment of skin hydration and colour was performed. Results obtained using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic were compared with results gathered from visual assessment and examined for their association with participants' PI risk based on scores of the Norton Risk Assessment Scale. While epidermal hydration and skin colour reading scores did not vary significantly over the data collection period, lipid readings could not be registered on any occasion. With the exception of skin dryness, skin parameters via both objective and subjective means had significant, positive correlations. Statistically significant correlations emerged between visual assessment of skin wetness at the sacrum (r = -0·441, P < 0·01) and ischia (r = -0·468, P < 0·01) and Norton Risk Assessment Scale scores. It was found that the objective assessment of epidermal hydration (skin wetness) was also significantly associated with PI risk at the sacrum (r = -0·528, P < 0·01), as well as the right ischia (r = -0·410, P

  9. Mid- to Late-Life Trajectories of Blood Pressure and the Risk of Stroke: The Rotterdam Study.

    PubMed

    Portegies, Marileen L P; Mirza, Saira Saeed; Verlinden, Vincentius J A; Hofman, Albert; Koudstaal, Peter J; Swanson, Sonja A; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-06-01

    Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for stroke. Associations of blood pressure with incident stroke are mostly based on single or average blood pressure levels. However, this approach does not take into account long-term trajectories of blood pressure, which can vary considerably in the elderly. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we examined trajectories of systolic blood pressure in 6745 participants (60.0% women) over an age-range from 55 to 106 years and jointly modeled their risk of stroke and competing causes of death using joint latent class mixed modeling. Four trajectories were identified. Class 1 was characterized by blood pressure increasing gradually from on average 120 to 160 mm Hg over 5 decades (n=4938). Compared with this class, class 2, characterized by a similar midlife blood pressure, but a steep increase (n=822, increasing from 120 to 200 mm Hg), and class 4, characterized by a high midlife blood pressure (n=115; average 160 mm Hg) and had a higher risk of stroke and death. Class 3, characterized by a moderate midlife blood pressure (n=870; average 140 mm Hg), had a similar risk of death as class 1, but the highest risk of stroke. Assessing trajectories of blood pressure provides a more nuanced understanding of the associations between blood pressure, stroke, and mortality. In particular, high blood pressure and rapidly increasing blood pressure patterns are associated with a high risk of stroke and death, whereas moderately high blood pressure is only related to an increased risk of stroke. Future studies should explore the potential pathogenic significance of these patterns. PMID:27160196

  10. Biomechanical modelling of normal pressure hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    Dutta-Roy, Tonmoy; Wittek, Adam; Miller, Karol

    2008-07-19

    This study investigates the mechanics of normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) growth using a computational approach. We created a generic 3-D brain mesh of a healthy human brain and modelled the brain parenchyma as single phase and biphasic continuum. In our model, hyperelastic constitutive law and finite deformation theory described deformations within the brain parenchyma. We used a value of 155.77Pa for the shear modulus (mu) of the brain parenchyma. Additionally, in our model, contact boundary definitions constrained the brain outer surface inside the skull. We used transmantle pressure difference to load the model. Fully nonlinear, implicit finite element procedures in the time domain were used to obtain the deformations of the ventricles and the brain. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first 3-D, fully nonlinear model investigating NPH growth mechanics. Clinicians generally accept that at most 1mm of Hg transmantle pressure difference (133.416Pa) is associated with the condition of NPH. Our computations showed that transmantle pressure difference of 1mm of Hg (133.416Pa) did not produce NPH for either single phase or biphasic model of the brain parenchyma. A minimum transmantle pressure difference of 1.764mm of Hg (235.44Pa) was required to produce the clinical condition of NPH. This suggested that the hypothesis of a purely mechanical basis for NPH growth needs to be revised. We also showed that under equal transmantle pressure difference load, there were no significant differences between the computed ventricular volumes for biphasic and incompressible/nearly incompressible single phase model of the brain parenchyma. As a result, there was no major advantage gained by using a biphasic model for the brain parenchyma. We propose that for modelling NPH, nearly incompressible single phase model of the brain parenchyma was adequate. Single phase treatment of the brain parenchyma simplified the mathematical description of the NPH model and resulted in

  11. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, Junenette L. Patricia Fabian, M. Levy, Jonathan I.

    2014-07-15

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  12. Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    PubMed

    Petruski-Ivleva, Natalia; Viera, Anthony J; Shimbo, Daichi; Muntner, Paul; Avery, Christy L; Schneider, Andrea L C; Couper, David; Kucharska-Newton, Anna

    2016-06-01

    Elevated blood pressure in midlife contributes significantly to the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, patterns of blood pressure increase may differ among individuals and may result in differential risk. Our goal was to examine the contribution of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure change to incidence of heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Latent class growth models were used to identify patterns of change in blood pressure across 4 clinical examinations (1987-1998) among 9845 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort participants (mean age, 53.7 [SD 5.7] years). Patterns of change in systolic blood pressure included slowly and steeply increasing, a decreasing and a sustained elevated blood pressure. Changes in diastolic and mid-blood pressure (½ systolic+½ diastolic) were less pronounced. The association of blood pressure pattern group membership with incidence of clinical outcomes was examined in follow-up from the fourth clinical examination (1996-1998) to December 31, 2011, using Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic and metabolic characteristics, and hypertension medication use. A gradient of rates of all events was observed across the identified patterns. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for covariates. Cumulative systolic blood pressure load, rather than the temporal pattern of change in systolic blood pressure itself, plays a role in determining the risk of cardiovascular disease, in particular, of heart failure and cardiovascular disease mortality, independent of blood pressure level measured at one point in time. PMID:27045024

  13. Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements Do Not Improve Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Individuals With Elevated Blood Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Bots, Michiel L.; Groenewegen, Karlijn A.; Anderson, Todd J.; Britton, Annie R.; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W.; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hedblad, Bo; Hofman, Albert; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kavousi, Maryam; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; Ikram, M. Arfan; Lonn, Eva M.; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O’Leary, Daniel H.; Polak, Joseph F.; Price, Jacqueline F.; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M.; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T.; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D.A.; Franco, Oscar H.; Peters, Sanne A.E.; den Ruijter, Hester M.

    2015-01-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (ie, a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, −1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6–10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant. PMID:24614213

  14. Entropic pressure in lattice models for polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammer, Yosi; Kantor, Yacov

    2014-11-01

    In lattice models, local pressure on a surface is derived from the change in the free energy of the system due to the exclusion of a certain boundary site, while the total force on the surface can be obtained by a similar exclusion of all surface sites. In these definitions, while the total force on the surface of a lattice system matches the force measured in a continuous system, the local pressure does not. Moreover, in a lattice system, the sum of the local pressures is not equal to the total force as is required in a continuous system. The difference is caused by correlation between occupations of surface sites as well as finite displacement of surface elements used in the definition of the pressures and the force. This problem is particularly acute in the studies of entropic pressure of polymers represented by random or self-avoiding walks on a lattice. We propose a modified expression for the local pressure which satisfies the proper relation between the pressure and the total force, and show that for a single ideal polymer in the presence of scale-invariant boundaries it produces quantitatively correct values for continuous systems. The required correction to the pressure is non-local, i.e., it depends on long range correlations between contact points of the polymer and the surface.

  15. Entropic pressure in lattice models for polymers.

    PubMed

    Hammer, Yosi; Kantor, Yacov

    2014-11-28

    In lattice models, local pressure on a surface is derived from the change in the free energy of the system due to the exclusion of a certain boundary site, while the total force on the surface can be obtained by a similar exclusion of all surface sites. In these definitions, while the total force on the surface of a lattice system matches the force measured in a continuous system, the local pressure does not. Moreover, in a lattice system, the sum of the local pressures is not equal to the total force as is required in a continuous system. The difference is caused by correlation between occupations of surface sites as well as finite displacement of surface elements used in the definition of the pressures and the force. This problem is particularly acute in the studies of entropic pressure of polymers represented by random or self-avoiding walks on a lattice. We propose a modified expression for the local pressure which satisfies the proper relation between the pressure and the total force, and show that for a single ideal polymer in the presence of scale-invariant boundaries it produces quantitatively correct values for continuous systems. The required correction to the pressure is non-local, i.e., it depends on long range correlations between contact points of the polymer and the surface. PMID:25429960

  16. Time series modelling of surface pressure data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Awadhi, Shafeeqah; Jolliffe, Ian

    1998-03-01

    In this paper we examine time series modelling of surface pressure data, as measured by a barograph, at Herne Bay, England, during the years 1981-1989. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been popular in many fields over the past 20 years, although applications in climatology have been rather less widespread than in some disciplines. Some recent examples are Milionis and Davies (Int. J. Climatol., 14, 569-579) and Seleshi et al. (Int. J. Climatol., 14, 911-923). We fit standard ARMA models to the pressure data separately for each of six 2-month natural seasons. Differences between the best fitting models for different seasons are discussed. Barograph data are recorded continuously, whereas ARMA models are fitted to discretely recorded data. The effect of different spacings between the fitted data on the models chosen is discussed briefly.Often, ARMA models can give a parsimonious and interpretable representation of a time series, but for many series the assumptions underlying such models are not fully satisfied, and more complex models may be considered. A specific feature of surface pressure data in the UK is that its behaviour is different at high and at low pressures: day-to-day changes are typically larger at low pressure levels than at higher levels. This means that standard assumptions used in fitting ARMA models are not valid, and two ways of overcoming this problem are investigated. Transformation of the data to better satisfy the usual assumptions is considered, as is the use of non-linear, specifically threshold autoregressive (TAR), models.

  17. [Using the 'Driving Force - Pressure - State - Exposure - Effects - Action' (DPSEEA) model of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the analysis of risks related to the use of pesticides in agricultural activities in the state of Rio de Janeiro].

    PubMed

    Araújo-Pinto, Mariana de; Peres, Frederico; Moreira, Josino Costa

    2012-06-01

    This paper seeks to apply the DPSEEA model (WHO) to identify major health risks to rural workers and the environment associated with the intensive use of pesticides in the State of Rio de Janeiro, based on an analysis of official public documents and a review of the (national and international) literature. It emphasizes the two main representative branches of agriculture in the state: family farming in the mountain region and the monoculture of sugarcane in the flatlands. Results show that the bulk of the determinants identified in the DPSEEA Matrix are related to deficiencies in actions for monitoring and surveillance of pesticide use, as well as a lack of technical assistance provided by the Public Sector in Rio de Janeiro State. Most of the actions developed in the state address the effects of pesticide exposure and, to a lesser extent, exposure to these chemicals, failing to focus on the higher levels of the matrix (such as driving forces and pressure). These are considered, by several authors, as the most appropriate when tackling the complex and systemic issues, such as the scope of this paper. By means of this study, an attempt was made to enable the application of the DPSEEA Model to assist in environmental and occupational health surveillance initiatives. PMID:22699645

  18. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  19. Information risk and security modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  20. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  1. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  2. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  3. Risk-based inspection of pressurizer surge lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Nitin J.; Dwivedy, Keshab K.

    1996-11-01

    The Reactor Coolant System (RCS) piping of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant is probably the best in terms of resistance to known degradation mechanisms of passive components. However, a failure in the RCS piping is extremely important in terms of safety and economic significance. Therefore, an effective management tool is needed to mitigate the potential effects of degradation due to aging or other effects such that plant reliability and availability are not affected. Currently, the RCS piping of all US PWR plants is being subjected to inservice inspection (ISI) based upon certain deterministics criteria set by the ASME code and the NRC regulatory guide. Even though the history of large RCS piping has not shown any degradation, the ISI continues at many locations at greta expense to the plant owners whereas, there can be only a few locations of relatively high vulnerability. A risk based ISI can provide an alternative and cost-effective solution in this situation. Pressurizer surge line is a unique segment in the RCS which is subjected to significant transient loadings due to stratification and striping during the normal heatup and cooldown processes. Therefore, the surge line is considered for illustration. Examples of structural reliability studies of pressurizer surge lines in four PWR units are presented in this paper to demonstrate possible reduction of ISI and significant cost saving without reduction of plant safety or reliability.

  4. Layzer type models for pressure driven shells

    SciTech Connect

    Hurricane, O A

    2004-09-16

    Models for the nonlinear instability of finite thickness shells driven by pressure are constructed in the style of Layzer. Equations for both Cartesian and cylindrically convergent/divergent geometries are derived. The resulting equations are appropriate for incompressible shells with unity Atwood number. Predictions from the equations compare well with two-dimensional simulations.

  5. Modeling steam pressure under martian lava flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dundas, Colin M.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.

    2013-01-01

    Rootless cones on Mars are a valuable indicator of past interactions between lava and water. However, the details of the lava–water interactions are not fully understood, limiting the ability to use these features to infer new information about past water on Mars. We have developed a model for the pressurization of a dry layer of porous regolith by melting and boiling ground ice in the shallow subsurface. This model builds on previous models of lava cooling and melting of subsurface ice. We find that for reasonable regolith properties and ice depths of decimeters, explosive pressures can be reached. However, the energy stored within such lags is insufficient to excavate thick flows unless they draw steam from a broader region than the local eruption site. These results indicate that lag pressurization can drive rootless cone formation under favorable circumstances, but in other instances molten fuel–coolant interactions are probably required. We use the model results to consider a range of scenarios for rootless cone formation in Athabasca Valles. Pressure buildup by melting and boiling ice under a desiccated lag is possible in some locations, consistent with the expected distribution of ice implanted from atmospheric water vapor. However, it is uncertain whether such ice has existed in the vicinity of Athabasca Valles in recent history. Plausible alternative sources include surface snow or an aqueous flood shortly before the emplacement of the lava flow.

  6. Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

  7. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  8. Low surface pressure models for Titan's atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caldwell, J.

    1978-01-01

    The inversion model for the atmosphere of Titan is reviewed. The basic features of the model are: a cold surface (80 K), a warm stratosphere (160 K) and a low surface pressure (20 mbar). The model is consistent with all existing thermal infrared spectrophotometry, but it cannot preclude the existence of an opaque, cloud, thick atmosphere. The model excludes other gases than methane as bulk constituents. Radio wavelengths observations, including recent data from the very large array, are discussed. These long wavelength observations may be the only direct means of sampling the surface environment before an entry probe or flyby.

  9. Ecological risk assessment of water environment for Luanhe River Basin based on relative risk model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jingling; Chen, Qiuying; Li, Yongli

    2010-11-01

    The relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional ecological risk assessments successfully. In this study, the RRM was developed through increasing the data of risk source and introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which include water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the ecological risk assessment endpoints. The Luanhe River Basin located in the North China was selected as model case. The results showed that there were three low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the Luanhe River Basin. The results also indicated habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores as high as 11.87 for the Luanhe water environment, the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (9.28) and the third was nutrients (7.78). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. Furthermore, animal husbandry was the biggest source with the risk scores as high as 20.38, the second was domestic sewage (14.00), and the third was polluting industry (9.96). For habitats, waters and farmland were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Water deterioration and ecological service values damaged were facing the biggest risk pressure, and secondly was biodiversity decreased and landscape fragmentation. PMID:20683654

  10. Model dependent behaviour of pressure hypertrophied myocardium.

    PubMed

    Cooper, G; Tomanek, R J

    1987-05-01

    Two animal models with contrasting responses to pressure overloading were used to determine whether cardiac dysfunction is a general property of pressure hypertrophied myocardium or a specific property of a particular model. Chronic progressive cardiac pressure overload was compared in (a) the left ventricle of the adult and aged spontaneously hypertensive rat, in which pressure overloading begins in the pup, and (b) the right ventricle of the adult cat, in which pressure overloading was initiated surgically in the kitten. Nine hypertensive and nine control rats were studied at 1 year of age, when hypertension is stable in this model; five hypertensive and five control rats were then studied at 2 years of age, when both groups of rats are beginning to show appreciable senile mortality. Systolic blood pressure was similarly increased in both hypertensive groups; compared with the normotensive control groups, the ratio of left ventricular to body weight was 36% and 76% higher in the 1 and 2 year old hypertensive groups respectively. During isotonic contractions of left ventricular papillary muscles the extent and velocity of shortening in muscles from the control and hypertensive rats in each group were the same, but shortening and relaxation times were prolonged in muscles from the hypertensive rats in both age groups. During isometric contractions developed tension and the rate of tension rise were the same throughout, but the time integral of active tension was increased in muscles from the hypertensive rats in both age groups. The ratio of oxygen consumption to either external work or developed tension was decreased in muscles from the hypertensive rats. In contrast to these data, previous data from the hypertrophied cat model showed reductions in both the velocity and the extent of isotonic shortening as well as in the rate and amount of isometric tension development, and prolongation of contraction was not observed. A similar but smaller decrease in the oxygen

  11. Modeling atmospheric pressure plasmas for biomedical applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graves, David

    2007-10-01

    The use of cold, atmospheric pressure plasmas for biomedical treatments is an exciting new application in gaseous electronics. Investigations to date include various tissue treatments and surgery, bacterial destruction, and the promotion of wound healing, among others. In this talk, I will present results from modeling the `plasma needle,' an atmospheric pressure plasma configuration that has been explored by several groups around the world. The biomedical efficacy of the plasma needle has been demonstrated but the mechanisms of cell and tissue modification or bacterial destruction are only just being established. One motivation for developing models is to help interpret experiments and evaluate postulated mechanisms. The model reveals important elements of the plasma needle sustaining mechanisms and operating modes. However, the extraordinary complexity of plasma-tissue interactions represents a long-term challenge for this burgeoning field.

  12. Analytic Modeling of Pressurization and Cryogenic Propellant

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Corpening, Jeremy H.

    2010-01-01

    An analytic model for pressurization and cryogenic propellant conditions during all mission phases of any liquid rocket based vehicle has been developed and validated. The model assumes the propellant tanks to be divided into five nodes and also implements an empirical correlation for liquid stratification if desired. The five nodes include a tank wall node exposed to ullage gas, an ullage gas node, a saturated propellant vapor node at the liquid-vapor interface, a liquid node, and a tank wall node exposed to liquid. The conservation equations of mass and energy are then applied across all the node boundaries and, with the use of perfect gas assumptions, explicit solutions for ullage and liquid conditions are derived. All fluid properties are updated real time using NIST Refprop.1 Further, mass transfer at the liquid-vapor interface is included in the form of evaporation, bulk boiling of liquid propellant, and condensation given the appropriate conditions for each. Model validation has proven highly successful against previous analytic models and various Saturn era test data and reasonably successful against more recent LH2 tank self pressurization ground test data. Finally, this model has been applied to numerous design iterations for the Altair Lunar Lander, Ares V Core Stage, and Ares V Earth Departure Stage in order to characterize Helium and autogenous pressurant requirements, propellant lost to evaporation and thermodynamic venting to maintain propellant conditions, and non-uniform tank draining in configurations utilizing multiple LH2 or LO2 propellant tanks. In conclusion, this model provides an accurate and efficient means of analyzing multiple design configurations for any cryogenic propellant tank in launch, low-acceleration coast, or in-space maneuvering and supplies the user with pressurization requirements, unusable propellants from evaporation and liquid stratification, and general ullage gas, liquid, and tank wall conditions as functions of time.

  13. Biomechanical modeling to prevent ischial pressure ulcers.

    PubMed

    Luboz, Vincent; Petrizelli, Marion; Bucki, Marek; Diot, Bruno; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Payan, Yohan

    2014-07-18

    With 300,000 paraplegic persons only in France, ischial pressure ulcers represent a major public health issue. They result from the buttocks׳ soft tissues compression by the bony prominences. Unfortunately, the current clinical techniques, with - in the best case - embedded pressure sensor mats, are insufficient to prevent them because most are due to high internal strains which can occur even with low pressures at the skin surface. Therefore, improving prevention requires using a biomechanical model to estimate internal strains from skin surface pressures. However, the buttocks׳ soft tissues׳ stiffness is still unknown. This paper provides a stiffness sensitivity analysis using a finite element model. Different layers with distinct Neo Hookean materials simulate the skin, fat and muscles. With Young moduli in the range [100-500 kPa], [25-35 kPa], and [80-140 kPa] for the skin, fat, and muscles, respectively, maximum internal strains reach realistic 50 to 60% values. The fat and muscle stiffnesses have an important influence on the strain variations, while skin stiffness is less influent. Simulating different sitting postures and changing the muscle thickness also result in a variation in the internal strains. PMID:24873863

  14. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  15. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  16. Models for computing combat risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jelinek, Jan

    2002-07-01

    Combat always involves uncertainty and uncertainty entails risk. To ensure that a combat task is prosecuted with the desired probability of success, the task commander has to devise an appropriate task force and then adjust it continuously in the course of battle. In order to do so, he has to evaluate how the probability of task success is related to the structure, capabilities and numerical strengths of combatants. For this purpose, predictive models of combat dynamics for combats in which the combatants fire asynchronously at random instants are developed from the first principles. Combats involving forces with both unlimited and limited ammunition supply are studied and modeled by stochastic Markov processes. In addition to the Markov models, another class of models first proposed by Brown was explored. The models compute directly the probability of win, in which we are primarily interested, without integrating the state probability equations. Experiments confirm that they produce exactly the same results at much lower computational cost.

  17. Blood pressure and risk of cancer incidence and mortality in the Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer Project.

    PubMed

    Stocks, Tanja; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Manjer, Jonas; Bjørge, Tone; Ulmer, Hanno; Hallmans, Göran; Lindkvist, Björn; Selmer, Randi; Nagel, Gabriele; Tretli, Steinar; Concin, Hans; Engeland, Anders; Jonsson, Håkan; Stattin, Pär

    2012-04-01

    Observational studies have shown inconsistent results for the association between blood pressure and cancer risk. We investigated the association in 7 cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden. In total, 577799 adults with a mean age of 44 years were followed for, on average, 12 years. Incident cancers were 22184 in men and 14744 in women, and cancer deaths were 8724 and 4525, respectively. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of cancer per 10-mmHg increments of midblood pressure, which corresponded with 0.7 SDs and, for example, an increment of systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 130/80 to 142/88 mmHg. All of the models used age as the time scale and were adjusted for possible confounders, including body mass index and smoking status. In men, midblood pressure was positively related to total incident cancer (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg increment: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.04-1.09]) and to cancer of the oropharynx, colon, rectum, lung, bladder, kidney, malignant melanoma, and nonmelanoma skin cancer. In women, midblood pressure was not related to total incident cancer but was positively related to cancer of the liver, pancreas, cervix, uterine corpus, and malignant melanoma. A positive association was also found for cancer mortality, with HRs per 10-mmHg increment of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08-1.15) for men and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11) for women. These results suggest a small increased cancer risk overall in men with elevated blood pressure level and a higher risk for cancer death in men and women. PMID:22353615

  18. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. PMID:20002893

  19. The Braden Q+P: a pediatric perioperative pressure ulcer risk assessment and intervention tool.

    PubMed

    Galvin, Patricia A; Curley, Martha A Q

    2012-09-01

    Pressure ulcers continue to be a personally and financially expensive complication of surgery and hospitalization. The effects of anesthesia, immobilization during surgery, and use of multiple medical devices all place the surgical patient at high risk for pressure-related skin injury. As part of a comprehensive pressure ulcer prevention initiative, nurses in the cardiac and main ORs at Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts, became concerned that current pressure ulcer risk assessment tools did not adequately capture the intense but short-term risk posed in the operating and procedural suites. A team, formed to investigate this matter, developed a tool to guide nursing assessment of patient risk and to plan nursing interventions to prevent pressure ulcers. Results after implementation of the Braden Q+P tool appear to show improvement in preventing pressure ulcers. Increased awareness of pressure ulcer prevention, a hospital focus on skin care, and nursing education about pressure ulcers supported this improvement. PMID:22935255

  20. Impact of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure on Cardiovascular Risk Factors in High-Risk Patients.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ying Y; Redline, Susan

    2015-11-01

    Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Obstructive sleep apnea is a highly prevalent condition characterized by repetitive upper airway collapse during sleep. A large body of evidence suggests that obstructive sleep apnea is associated with the development of cardiovascular disease and increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is the current gold standard for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. CPAP devices maintain upper airway patency using a pneumatic splint, thereby ameliorating the repetitive deoxygenation and reoxygenation characteristic of sleep in obstructive sleep apnea patients. Accumulating evidence suggests that CPAP treatment may lead to a reduction in blood pressure. Limited evidence also suggests that CPAP therapy may modulate glucose metabolism, serum cholesterol levels, and inflammatory biomarkers. Thus, CPAP treatment may be associated with cardiovascular risk factor modification in patients with obstructive sleep apnea, who are often obese and at an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. This review updates the knowledge on the effects of CPAP on cardiovascular risk factors from recently published randomized trials. PMID:26370408

  1. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  2. A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

    2015-01-01

    Background: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. Aims and Objectives: The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. Results: The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01–12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16–1.86). Conclusion: There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active

  3. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  4. Pressurized Cadaver Model in Cardiothoracic Surgical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Greene, Christina L; Minneti, Michael; Sullivan, Maura E; Baker, Craig J

    2015-09-01

    Simulation is increasingly recognized as an integral aspect of thoracic surgery education. A number of simulators have been introduced to teach component cardiothoracic skills; however, no good model exists for numerous essential skills including redo sternotomy and internal mammary artery takedown. These procedures are often relegated to thoracic surgery residents but have significant negative implications if performed incorrectly. Fresh tissue dissection is recognized as the gold standard for surgical simulation, but the lack of circulating blood volume limits surgical realism. Our aim is to describe the technique of the pressurized cadaver for use in cardiothoracic surgical procedures, focusing on internal mammary artery takedown. PMID:26354651

  5. Animal Models in Pressure Ulcer Research

    PubMed Central

    Salcido, Richard; Popescu, Adrian; Ahn, Chulhyun

    2007-01-01

    Background/Objective: Research targeting the pathophysiology, prevention, and treatment of pressure ulcers (PrUs) continue to be a significant priority for clinical and basic science research. Spinal cord injury patients particularly benefit from PrU research, because the prevalence of chronic wounds in this category is increasing despite standardized medical care. Because of practical, ethical, and safety considerations, PrUs in the human environment are limited to studies involving patients with pre-existing ulcers. Therefore, we are limited in our basic knowledge pertaining to the development, progression, and healing environment in this devastating disease. Methods: This review provides a synopsis of literature and a discussion of techniques used to induce PrUs in animal models. The question of what animal model best mimics the human PrU environment has been a subject of debate by investigators, peer review panels, and editors. The similarities in wound development and healing in mammalian tissue make murine models a relevant model for understanding the causal factors as well as the wound healing elements. Although we are beginning to understand some of the mechanisms of PrU development, a key dilemma of what makes an apparently healthy tissue develop a PrU waits to be solved. Results and Conclusions: No single method of induction and exploring PrUs in animals can address all the aspects of the pathology of chronic wounds. Each model has its particular strengths and weaknesses. Certain types of models can selectively identify specific aspects of wound development, quantify the extent of lesions, and assess outcomes from interventions. The appropriate interpretation of these methods is significant for proper study design, an understanding of the results, and extrapolation to clinical relevance. PMID:17591222

  6. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology

    PubMed Central

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M.; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring. PMID:24733953

  7. Fluid dynamic modelling of renal pelvic pressure during endoscopic stone removal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oratis, Alexandros; Subasic, John; Bird, James; Eisner, Brian

    2015-11-01

    Endoscopic kidney stone removal procedures are known to increase internal pressure in the renal pelvis, the kidney's urinary collecting system. High renal pelvic pressure incites systemic absorption of irrigation fluid, which can increase the risk of postoperative fever and sepsis or the unwanted absorption of electrolytes. Urologists choose the appropriate surgical procedure based on patient history and kidney stone size. However, no study has been conducted to compare the pressure profiles of each procedure, nor is there a precise sense of how the renal pelvic pressure scales with various operational parameters. Here we develop physical models for the flow rates and renal pelvic pressure for various procedures. We show that the results of our models are consistent with existing urological data on each procedure and that the models can predict pressure profiles where data is unavailable.

  8. Predictive capacity of risk assessment scales and clinical judgment for pressure ulcers: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    García-Fernández, Francisco Pedro; Pancorbo-Hidalgo, Pedro L; Agreda, J Javier Soldevilla

    2014-01-01

    A systematic review with meta-analysis was completed to determine the capacity of risk assessment scales and nurses' clinical judgment to predict pressure ulcer (PU) development. Electronic databases were searched for prospective studies on the validity and predictive capacity of PUs risk assessment scales published between 1962 and 2010 in English, Spanish, Portuguese, Korean, German, and Greek. We excluded gray literature sources, integrative review articles, and retrospective or cross-sectional studies. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed according to the guidelines of the Critical Appraisal Skills Program. Predictive capacity was measured as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. When 2 or more valid original studies were found, a meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effect model and sensitivity analysis. We identified 57 studies, including 31 that included a validation study. We also retrieved 4 studies that tested clinical judgment as a risk prediction factor. Meta-analysis produced the following pooled predictive capacity indicators: Braden (RR = 4.26); Norton (RR = 3.69); Waterlow (RR = 2.66); Cubbin-Jackson (RR = 8.63); EMINA (RR = 6.17); Pressure Sore Predictor Scale (RR = 21.4); and clinical judgment (RR = 1.89). Pooled analysis of 11 studies found adequate risk prediction capacity in various clinical settings; the Braden, Norton, EMINA (mEntal state, Mobility, Incontinence, Nutrition, Activity), Waterlow, and Cubbin-Jackson scales showed the highest predictive capacity. The clinical judgment of nurses was found to achieve inadequate predictive capacity when used alone, and should be used in combination with a validated scale. PMID:24280770

  9. Predictive Validity of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Park, Seong-Hi; Lee, Young-Shin; Kwon, Young-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Preventing pressure ulcers is one of the most challenging goals existing for today's health care provider. Currently used tools which assess risk of pressure ulcer development rarely evaluate the accuracy of predictability, especially in older adults. The current study aimed at providing a systemic review and meta-analysis of 29 studies using three pressure ulcer risk assessment tools: Braden, Norton, and Waterlow Scales. Overall predictive validities of pressure ulcer risks in the pooled sensitivity and specificity indicated a similar range with a moderate accuracy level in all three scales, while heterogeneity showed more than 80% variability among studies. The studies applying the Braden Scale used five different cut-off points representing the primary cause of heterogeneity. Results indicate that commonly used screening tools for pressure ulcer risk have limitations regarding validity and accuracy for use with older adults due to heterogeneity among studies. PMID:26337859

  10. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  11. Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements do not improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with elevated blood pressure: the USE-IMT collaboration.

    PubMed

    Bots, Michiel L; Groenewegen, Karlijn A; Anderson, Todd J; Britton, Annie R; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hedblad, Bo; Hofman, Albert; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kavousi, Maryam; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; Ikram, M Arfan; Lonn, Eva M; Lorenz, Matthias W; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O'Leary, Daniel H; Polak, Joseph F; Price, Jacqueline F; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Franco, Oscar H; Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M

    2014-06-01

    Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (i.e., a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, -1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6-10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant. PMID:24614213

  12. Intraglottal velocity and pressure measurements in a hemilarynx model

    PubMed Central

    Oren, Liran; Gutmark, Ephraim; Khosla, Sid

    2015-01-01

    Determining the mechanisms of self-sustained oscillation of the vocal folds requires characterization of the pressures produced by intraglottal aerodynamics. Because most of the intraglottal aerodynamic forces cannot be measured in a tissue model of the larynx, current understanding of vocal fold vibration mechanism is derived from mechanical, analytical, and computational models. Previous studies have computed intraglottal pressures from measured intraglottal velocity fields and intraglottal geometry; however, this technique for determining pressures is not yet validated. In this study, intraglottal pressure measurements taken in a hemilarynx model are compared with pressure values that are computed from simultaneous velocity measurements. The results showed that significant negative pressure formed near the superior aspect of the folds during closing, which agrees with previous measurements in other hemilarynx models. Intraglottal velocity measurements show that the flow near the superior aspect separates from the glottal wall during closing and may develop into a vortex, which further augments the magnitude of negative pressure. Intraglottal pressure distributions, computed by solving the pressure Poisson equation, showed good agreement with pressure measurements. The match between the pressure computations and its measurements validates the current technique, which was previously used to estimate intraglottal pressure distribution in a full larynx model. PMID:25698025

  13. Intraglottal velocity and pressure measurements in a hemilarynx model.

    PubMed

    Oren, Liran; Gutmark, Ephraim; Khosla, Sid

    2015-02-01

    Determining the mechanisms of self-sustained oscillation of the vocal folds requires characterization of the pressures produced by intraglottal aerodynamics. Because most of the intraglottal aerodynamic forces cannot be measured in a tissue model of the larynx, current understanding of vocal fold vibration mechanism is derived from mechanical, analytical, and computational models. Previous studies have computed intraglottal pressures from measured intraglottal velocity fields and intraglottal geometry; however, this technique for determining pressures is not yet validated. In this study, intraglottal pressure measurements taken in a hemilarynx model are compared with pressure values that are computed from simultaneous velocity measurements. The results showed that significant negative pressure formed near the superior aspect of the folds during closing, which agrees with previous measurements in other hemilarynx models. Intraglottal velocity measurements show that the flow near the superior aspect separates from the glottal wall during closing and may develop into a vortex, which further augments the magnitude of negative pressure. Intraglottal pressure distributions, computed by solving the pressure Poisson equation, showed good agreement with pressure measurements. The match between the pressure computations and its measurements validates the current technique, which was previously used to estimate intraglottal pressure distribution in a full larynx model. PMID:25698025

  14. More Young Adults at Risk for High Blood Pressure | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    MedlinePlus

    ... young adults have high blood pressure. NIH-funded analysis indicates higher risk for young adults than previously ... 12 ounces of beer or five ounces of wine.) Finally, quit smoking. Among other things, smoking damages ...

  15. Genetic risks and genetic model specification.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Gang; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Jinfeng; Yuan, Ao; Li, Qizhai; Gastwirth, Joseph L

    2016-08-21

    Genetic risks and genetic models are often used in design and analysis of genetic epidemiology studies. A genetic model is defined in terms of two genetic risk measures: genotype relative risk and odds ratio. The impacts of choosing a risk measure on the resulting genetic models are studied in the power to detect association and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in cases using genetic relative risk. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the power of a study to detect associations using odds ratio is lower than that using relative risk with the same value when other parameters are fixed. When the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium holds in the general population, the genetic model can be inferred by the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in only cases. Furthermore, it is more efficient than that based on the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in all cases and controls. PMID:27181372

  16. A theoretical model to study melting of metals under pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kholiya, Kuldeep; Chandra, Jeewan

    2015-10-01

    On the basis of the thermal equation-of-state a simple theoretical model is developed to study the pressure dependence of melting temperature. The model is then applied to compute the high pressure melting curve of 10 metals (Cu, Mg, Pb, Al, In, Cd, Zn, Au, Ag and Mn). It is found that the melting temperature is not linear with pressure and the slope dTm/dP of the melting curve decreases continuously with the increase in pressure. The results obtained with the present model are also compared with the previous theoretical and experimental data. A good agreement between theoretical and experimental result supports the validity of the present model.

  17. Requirements based system risk modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin

    2004-01-01

    The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements. We assume a complete list of the requirements, the relevant risk elements and their probability of occurrence and the quantified effect of the risk elements on the requirements. In order to assess the degree to which each requirement is satisfied, we need to determine the effect of the various risk elements on the requirement.

  18. A new velocity-pressure-compaction model for uncemented sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saul, M. J.; Lumley, D. E.

    2013-05-01

    Knowledge of the pressure dependence of rock properties is useful for a wide range of earth science problems, especially related to pore pressure changes caused by fluid injection or withdrawal, as often occurs in groundwater, hydrocarbon and CO2 sequestration reservoirs. A long-standing problem is that theoretical models of velocity-pressure response often do not match laboratory measurements, and alternately, empirical regressions fit to such data do not extrapolate accurately to wider pressure ranges since they have little or no physical basis. Accurate determination of the dry rock frame properties at low effective pressure is a key aspect of the problem, particularly when ultrasonic laboratory measurements are not available in this pressure range. We present a new model to describe the pressure sensitivity of the bulk and shear moduli for uncemented sedimentary rocks. Our model incorporates effects of sedimentary compaction and critical porosity, including a relationship to account for porosity and density change with pressure. The model is tested on laboratory measurements for various rock samples and fits well over a wide range of pressures. The new velocity-pressure model should be useful for improved prediction and interpretation of pressure-dependent rock properties and seismic data.

  19. Modeling extreme risks in ecology.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark; Franklin, James; Hayes, Keith R; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Peters, Gareth W; Sisson, Scott A

    2012-11-01

    Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks. PMID:22817845

  20. Blood pressure level impacts risk of death among HIV seropositive adults in Kenya: a retrospective analysis of electronic health records

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Mortality among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is increasingly due to non-communicable causes. This has been observed mostly in developed countries and the routine care of HIV infected individuals has now expanded to include attention to cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are often overlooked among HIV seropositive (+) individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the effect of blood pressure on mortality among HIV+ adults in Kenya. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records of a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya between 2005 and 2010. All included individuals were HIV+. We excluded participants with AIDS, who were <16 or >80 years old, or had data out of acceptable ranges. Missing data for key covariates was addressed by inverse probability weighting. Primary outcome measures were crude mortality rate and mortality hazard ratio (HR) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders including HIV stage. Results There were 49,475 (74% women) HIV+ individuals who met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Mortality rates for men and women were 3.8 and 1.8/100 person-years, respectively, and highest among those with the lowest blood pressures. Low blood pressure was associated with the highest mortality incidence rate (IR) (systolic <100 mmHg IR 5.2 [4.8-5.7]; diastolic <60 mmHg IR 9.2 [8.3-10.2]). Mortality rate among men with high systolic blood pressure without advanced HIV (3.0, 95% CI: 1.6-5.5) was higher than men with normal systolic blood pressure (1.1, 95% CI: 0.7-1.7). In weighted proportional hazards regression models, men without advanced HIV disease and systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg carried a higher mortality risk than normotensive men (HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.94-6.08). Conclusions Although there has been little attention paid to high blood pressure among HIV+ Africans, we show that blood

  1. Hypertension syndrome and cardiovascular events. High blood pressure is only one risk factor.

    PubMed

    Glasser, S P

    2001-11-01

    It is becoming increasingly clear that high blood pressure is not the sole cause of the high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates associated with hypertension. Reduction of blood pressure is of utmost importance, but many other factors contribute significantly to the risk of adverse cardiovascular events and death. In this article, Dr Glasser reviews hypertension as a syndrome, emphasizing therapy to improve blood pressure control, increase arterial compliance, and inhibit or reverse vascular remodeling. PMID:11727651

  2. High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke

    MedlinePlus

    ... is generally considered the most common controllable risk factor for stroke, but atrial fibrillation is the most powerful, said Ralph L. Sacco, M.D., professor and chairman of neurology at the Miller School of Medicine at the University of Miami and past president of the American ...

  3. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  4. Childhood Risk Factors for Thin Body Preoccupation and Social Pressure to Be Thin

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agras, W. Stewart; Bryson, Susan; Hammer, Lawrence D.; Kraemer, Helena C.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Thin body preoccupation and social pressure to be thin (TBPSP) in adolescence are risk factors for the development of full and partial bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder. This study examined precursors of these potent risk factors. Method: A prospective study followed 134 children from birth to 11.0 years and their parents.…

  5. Giving in to Group Pressure: The Impact of Socialization and Risk on Perceived Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Katharine A.; Platania, Judith

    2009-01-01

    The current study applies the perspective of decision theory to understanding how choices are made in an in-group setting involving social pressure and risk. Two hundred sixty-one undergraduate students provided assessments of consequences associated with illegally consuming alcohol in different environments with differing degrees of risk. In…

  6. Orthostatic Blood Pressure Test for Risk Stratification in Patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Münch, Julia; Aydin, Ali; Suling, Anna; Voigt, Christian; Blankenberg, Stefan; Patten, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Background Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults, mainly ascribed to ventricular tachycardia (VT). Assuming that VT is the major cause of (pre-) syncope in HCM patients, its occurrence is essential for SCD risk stratification and primarily preventive ICD-implantation. However, evidence of VT during syncope is often missing. As the differentiation of potential lethal causes for syncope such as VT from more harmless reasons is crucial, HCM patients were screened for orthostatic dysregulation by using a simple orthostatic blood pressure test. Methods Over 15 months (IQR [9;20]) 100 HCM patients (55.8±16.2 yrs, 61% male) were evaluated for (pre-)syncope and VT (24h-ECGs, device-memories) within the last five years. Eighty patients underwent an orthostatic blood pressure test. Logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. Results In older patients (>40 yrs) a positive orthostatic test result increased the chance of (pre-) syncope by a factor of 63 (95%-CI [8.8; 447.9], p<0.001; 93% sensitivity, 95%-CI [76; 99]; 74% specificity, 95%-CI [58; 86]). No correlation with VT was shown. A prolonged QTc interval also increased the chance of (pre-) syncope by a factor of 6.6 (95%-CI [2.0; 21.7]; p=0.002). Conclusions The orthostatic blood pressure test is highly valuable for evaluation of syncope and presyncope especially in older HCM patients, suggesting that orthostatic syncope might be more relevant than previously assumed. Considering the high complication rates due to ICD therapies, this test may provide useful information for the evaluation of syncope in individual risk stratification and may help to prevent unnecessary device implantations, especially in older HCM patients. PMID:26107635

  7. Risk evaluation on the basis of pressure rate measured by automatic pressure tracking adiabatic calorimeter.

    PubMed

    Iwata, Yusaku; Koseki, Hiroshi

    2008-11-15

    An automatic pressure tracking adiabatic calorimeter (APTAC) had been employed to obtain the thermokinetic and the vapor pressure data during runaway reactions. The APTAC is an adiabatic calorimeter with a large-scale sample mass and low thermal inertia, and is an extremely useful tool for assessing thermal hazards of reactive chemicals. The data obtained by the APTAC are important information for the design of the safe industrial process. The thermodynamics parameters and the gas production were discussed on the basis of the experimental data of various concentrations and weights of di-tert-butyl peroxide (DTBP)/toluene solution for the purpose of investigating the properties of the APTAC data. The thermal decomposition of DTBP was studied on the basis of the temperature data and the pressure data obtained by the APTAC. The activation energy and the frequency factor of DTBP are nearly constant and the same as the literature values in the concentrations between 20 and 60 wt.%. The pressure rise due to gas production is important data for designing the relief vent of a reactor. The time history of the gas production was investigated with various weights and concentrations. The total gas production index, which had the vapor pressure correction, was 1.0 in the decomposition of DTBP. PMID:18313846

  8. A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.

    PubMed

    Xu, W S; Luo, P Y; Sun, L; Lin, N

    2016-01-01

    The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative. PMID:27603701

  9. Casting Stainless-Steel Models Around Pressure Tubes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vasquez, Peter; Micol, John R.

    1992-01-01

    Survivability of thin-wall stainless-steel tubing increased to nearly 100 percent. Improves state of art in pressure-model castings and reduces cost associated with machining complete model from stainless-steel blank.

  10. Canards in a rheodynamic model of cardiac pressure pulsations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Feng; Chen, Xian-Feng

    2007-09-01

    This paper reports on the canard phenomenon occurring in a rheodynamic model of cardiac pressure pulsations. By singular perturbation techniques the corresponding parameter value at which canards exist is obtained. The physiological significance of canards in this model is given.

  11. Is It Daily, Monthly, or Yearly Blood Pressure Variability that Enhances Cardiovascular Risk?

    PubMed

    Dolan, Eamon; O'Brien, Eoin

    2015-11-01

    Variability is a phenomenon common to most biological processes that we can measure and is a particular feature of blood pressure (BP). Variability causes concern for many physicians regarding its clinical meaning and potential impact on cardiovascular risk. In this review, we assess the role of different time periods of blood pressure variability (BPV) in cardiovascular risk stratification. We review the indices of BPV derived from ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM), home blood pressure measurement (HBPM), or at the clinic setting with the intention of providing a clear message for clinical practice. BPV, either derived from ABPM or HBPM, does not consistently augment cardiovascular risk prediction over and beyond that of average BP, particularly in low-risk individuals. That said, it would seem that certain medications such as calcium channel blockers may have a beneficial effect on visit-to-visit BPV and perhaps reduce the associated cardiovascular risk. This highlights the benefits in using combination therapy which might couple a number of therapeutic benefits such as the reductions of mean blood pressure and BPV. Overall, we should remain aware that the average BP level remains the main modifiable risk factor derived from BP measurements and continue to improve the control of hypertension and adverse health outcomes. PMID:26351017

  12. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. PMID:21232062

  13. Thermodynamic models for bounding pressurant mass requirements of cryogenic tanks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandresar, Neil T.; Haberbusch, Mark S.

    1994-01-01

    Thermodynamic models have been formulated to predict lower and upper bounds for the mass of pressurant gas required to pressurize a cryogenic tank and then expel liquid from the tank. Limiting conditions are based on either thermal equilibrium or zero energy exchange between the pressurant gas and initial tank contents. The models are independent of gravity level and allow specification of autogenous or non-condensible pressurants. Partial liquid fill levels may be specified for initial and final conditions. Model predictions are shown to successfully bound results from limited normal-gravity tests with condensable and non-condensable pressurant gases. Representative maximum collapse factor maps are presented for liquid hydrogen to show the effects of initial and final fill level on the range of pressurant gas requirements. Maximum collapse factors occur for partial expulsions with large final liquid fill fractions.

  14. Development of Standardized Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Shutdown Operations Integrated in SPAR Level 1 Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; J. Mitman

    2008-05-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during Modes 4, 5, and 6 at pressurized water reactors and Modes 4 and 5 at boiling water reactors can be significant. This paper describes using the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s full-power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development of risk evaluation models for commercial nuclear power plants. The shutdown models are integrated with their respective internal event at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the SPAR full-power model with shutdown event tree logic. Preliminary human reliability analysis results indicate that risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to correctly diagnose events and initiate systems.

  15. Statistical models for operational risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornalba, Chiara; Giudici, Paolo

    2004-07-01

    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has released, in the last few years, recommendations for the correct determination of the risks to which a banking organization is subject. This concerns, in particular, operational risks, which are all those management events that may determine unexpected losses. It is necessary to develop valid statistical models to measure and, consequently, predict, such operational risks. In the paper we present the possible approaches, including our own proposal, which is based on Bayesian networks.

  16. Mechanical Modeling of a WIPP Drum Under Pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Jeffrey A.

    2014-11-25

    Mechanical modeling was undertaken to support the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) technical assessment team (TAT) investigating the February 14th 2014 event where there was a radiological release at the WIPP. The initial goal of the modeling was to examine if a mechanical model could inform the team about the event. The intention was to have a model that could test scenarios with respect to the rate of pressurization. It was expected that the deformation and failure (inability of the drum to contain any pressure) would vary according to the pressurization rate. As the work progressed there was also interest in using the mechanical analysis of the drum to investigate what would happen if a drum pressurized when it was located under a standard waste package. Specifically, would the deformation be detectable from camera views within the room. A finite element model of a WIPP 55-gallon drum was developed that used all hex elements. Analyses were conducted using the explicit transient dynamics module of Sierra/SM to explore potential pressurization scenarios of the drum. Theses analysis show similar deformation patterns to documented pressurization tests of drums in the literature. The calculated failure pressures from previous tests documented in the literature vary from as little as 16 psi to 320 psi. In addition, previous testing documented in the literature shows drums bulging but not failing at pressures ranging from 69 to 138 psi. The analyses performed for this study found the drums failing at pressures ranging from 35 psi to 75 psi. When the drums are pressurized quickly (in 0.01 seconds) there is significant deformation to the lid. At lower pressurization rates the deformation of the lid is considerably less, yet the lids will still open from the pressure. The analyses demonstrate the influence of pressurization rate on deformation and opening pressure of the drums. Analyses conducted with a substantial mass on top of the closed drum demonstrate that the

  17. Quantitative risk modeling in aseptic manufacture.

    PubMed

    Tidswell, Edward C; McGarvey, Bernard

    2006-01-01

    Expedient risk assessment of aseptic manufacturing processes offers unique opportunities for improved and sustained assurance of product quality. Contemporary risk assessments applied to aseptic manufacturing processes, however, are commonly handicapped by assumptions and subjectivity, leading to inexactitude. Quantitative risk modeling augmented with Monte Carlo simulations represents a novel, innovative, and more efficient means of risk assessment. This technique relies upon fewer assumptions and removes subjectivity to more swiftly generate an improved, more realistic, quantitative estimate of risk. The fundamental steps and requirements for an assessment of the risk of bioburden ingress into aseptically manufactured products are described. A case study exemplifies how quantitative risk modeling and Monte Carlo simulations achieve a more rapid and improved determination of the risk of bioburden ingress during the aseptic filling of a parenteral product. Although application of quantitative risk modeling is described here purely for the purpose of process improvement, the technique has far wider relevance in the assisted disposition of batches, cleanroom management, and the utilization of real-time data from rapid microbial monitoring technologies. PMID:17089696

  18. PRISM: a planned risk information seeking model.

    PubMed

    Kahlor, LeeAnn

    2010-06-01

    Recent attention on health-related information seeking has focused primarily on information seeking within specific health and health risk contexts. This study attempts to shift some of that focus to individual-level variables that may impact health risk information seeking across contexts. To locate these variables, the researcher posits an integrated model, the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM). The model, which treats risk information seeking as a deliberate (planned) behavior, maps variables found in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) and the Risk Information Seeking and Processing Model (RISP; Griffin, Dunwoody, & Neuwirth, 1999), and posits linkages among those variables. This effort is further informed by Kahlor's (2007) Augmented RISP, the Theory of Motivated Information Management (Afifi & Weiner, 2004), the Comprehensive Model of Information Seeking (Johnson & Meischke, 1993), the Health Information Acquisition Model (Freimuth, Stein, & Kean, 1989), and the Extended Parallel Processing Model (Witte, 1998). The resulting integrated model accounted for 59% of the variance in health risk information-seeking intent and performed better than the TPB or the RISP alone. PMID:20512716

  19. The Relationship of Medicaid Payment Rates, Bed Constraint Policies, and Risk-Adjusted Pressure Ulcers

    PubMed Central

    Grabowski, David C; Angelelli, Joseph J

    2004-01-01

    Objective To examine the effect of Medicaid reimbursement rates on nursing home quality in the presence of certificate-of-need (CON) and construction moratorium laws. Data Sources/Study Setting A single cross-section of Medicaid certified nursing homes in 1999 (N=13,736). Study Design A multivariate regression model was used to examine the effect of Medicaid payment rates and other explanatory variables on risk-adjusted pressure ulcer incidence. The model is alternatively considered for all U.S. nursing home markets, those most restrictive markets, and those high-Medicaid homes to isolate potentially resource-poor environments. Data Extraction Methods A merged data file was constructed with resident-level information from the Minimum Data Set, facility-level information from the On-Line, Survey, Certification, and Reporting (OSCAR) system and market- and state-level information from various published sources. Principal Findings In the analysis of all U.S. markets, there was a positive relationship between the Medicaid payment rate and nursing home quality. The results from this analysis imply that a 10 percent increase in Medicaid payment was associated with a 1.5 percent decrease in the incidence of risk-adjusted pressure ulcers. However, there was a limited association between Medicaid payment rates and quality in the most restrictive markets. Finally, there was a strong relationship between Medicaid payment and quality in high-Medicaid homes providing strong evidence that the level of Medicaid payment is especially important within resource poor facilities. Conclusions These findings provide support for the idea that increased Medicaid reimbursement may be an effective means toward improving nursing home quality, although CON and moratorium laws may mitigate this relationship. PMID:15230928

  20. High pressure common rail injection system modeling and control.

    PubMed

    Wang, H P; Zheng, D; Tian, Y

    2016-07-01

    In this paper modeling and common-rail pressure control of high pressure common rail injection system (HPCRIS) is presented. The proposed mathematical model of high pressure common rail injection system which contains three sub-systems: high pressure pump sub-model, common rail sub-model and injector sub-model is a relative complicated nonlinear system. The mathematical model is validated by the software Matlab and a virtual detailed simulation environment. For the considered HPCRIS, an effective model free controller which is called Extended State Observer - based intelligent Proportional Integral (ESO-based iPI) controller is designed. And this proposed method is composed mainly of the referred ESO observer, and a time delay estimation based iPI controller. Finally, to demonstrate the performances of the proposed controller, the proposed ESO-based iPI controller is compared with a conventional PID controller and ADRC. PMID:27012440

  1. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  2. Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Ehret, Georg B; Munroe, Patricia B; Rice, Kenneth M; Bochud, Murielle; Johnson, Andrew D; Chasman, Daniel I; Smith, Albert V; Tobin, Martin D; Verwoert, Germaine C; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Pihur, Vasyl; Vollenweider, Peter; O'Reilly, Paul F; Amin, Najaf; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L; Teumer, Alexander; Glazer, Nicole L; Launer, Lenore; Zhao, Jing Hua; Aulchenko, Yurii; Heath, Simon; Sõber, Siim; Parsa, Afshin; Luan, Jian'an; Arora, Pankaj; Dehghan, Abbas; Zhang, Feng; Lucas, Gavin; Hicks, Andrew A; Jackson, Anne U; Peden, John F; Tanaka, Toshiko; Wild, Sarah H; Rudan, Igor; Igl, Wilmar; Milaneschi, Yuri; Parker, Alex N; Fava, Cristiano; Chambers, John C; Fox, Ervin R; Kumari, Meena; Go, Min Jin; van der Harst, Pim; Kao, Wen Hong Linda; Sjögren, Marketa; Vinay, D G; Alexander, Myriam; Tabara, Yasuharu; Shaw-Hawkins, Sue; Whincup, Peter H; Liu, Yongmei; Shi, Gang; Kuusisto, Johanna; Tayo, Bamidele; Seielstad, Mark; Sim, Xueling; Nguyen, Khanh-Dung Hoang; Lehtimäki, Terho; Matullo, Giuseppe; Wu, Ying; Gaunt, Tom R; Onland-Moret, N Charlotte; Cooper, Matthew N; Platou, Carl G P; Org, Elin; Hardy, Rebecca; Dahgam, Santosh; Palmen, Jutta; Vitart, Veronique; Braund, Peter S; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Palmas, Walter; Campbell, Harry; Ludwig, Barbara; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Palmer, Nicholette D; Aspelund, Thor; Garcia, Melissa; Chang, Yen-Pei C; O'Connell, Jeffrey R; Steinle, Nanette I; Grobbee, Diederick E; Arking, Dan E; Kardia, Sharon L; Morrison, Alanna C; Hernandez, Dena; Najjar, Samer; McArdle, Wendy L; Hadley, David; Brown, Morris J; Connell, John M; Hingorani, Aroon D; Day, Ian N M; Lawlor, Debbie A; Beilby, John P; Lawrence, Robert W; Clarke, Robert; Hopewell, Jemma C; Ongen, Halit; Dreisbach, Albert W; Li, Yali; Young, J Hunter; Bis, Joshua C; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Adair, Linda S; Lee, Nanette R; Chen, Ming-Huei; Olden, Matthias; Pattaro, Cristian; Bolton, Judith A Hoffman; Köttgen, Anna; Bergmann, Sven; Mooser, Vincent; Chaturvedi, Nish; Frayling, Timothy M; Islam, Muhammad; Jafar, Tazeen H; Erdmann, Jeanette; Kulkarni, Smita R; Bornstein, Stefan R; Grässler, Jürgen; Groop, Leif; Voight, Benjamin F; Kettunen, Johannes; Howard, Philip; Taylor, Andrew; Guarrera, Simonetta; Ricceri, Fulvio; Emilsson, Valur; Plump, Andrew; Barroso, Inês; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Weder, Alan B; Hunt, Steven C; Sun, Yan V; Bergman, Richard N; Collins, Francis S; Bonnycastle, Lori L; Scott, Laura J; Stringham, Heather M; Peltonen, Leena; Perola, Markus; Vartiainen, Erkki; Brand, Stefan-Martin; Staessen, Jan A; Wang, Thomas J; Burton, Paul R; Soler Artigas, Maria; Dong, Yanbin; Snieder, Harold; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhu, Haidong; Lohman, Kurt K; Rudock, Megan E; Heckbert, Susan R; Smith, Nicholas L; Wiggins, Kerri L; Doumatey, Ayo; Shriner, Daniel; Veldre, Gudrun; Viigimaa, Margus; Kinra, Sanjay; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Tripathy, Vikal; Langefeld, Carl D; Rosengren, Annika; Thelle, Dag S; Corsi, Anna Maria; Singleton, Andrew; Forrester, Terrence; Hilton, Gina; McKenzie, Colin A; Salako, Tunde; Iwai, Naoharu; Kita, Yoshikuni; Ogihara, Toshio; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Okamura, Tomonori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Umemura, Satoshi; Eyheramendy, Susana; Meitinger, Thomas; Wichmann, H-Erich; Cho, Yoon Shin; Kim, Hyung-Lae; Lee, Jong-Young; Scott, James; Sehmi, Joban S; Zhang, Weihua; Hedblad, Bo; Nilsson, Peter; Smith, George Davey; Wong, Andrew; Narisu, Narisu; Stančáková, Alena; Raffel, Leslie J; Yao, Jie; Kathiresan, Sekar; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Schwartz, Stephen M; Ikram, M Arfan; Longstreth, W T; Mosley, Thomas H; Seshadri, Sudha; Shrine, Nick R G; Wain, Louise V; Morken, Mario A; Swift, Amy J; Laitinen, Jaana; Prokopenko, Inga; Zitting, Paavo; Cooper, Jackie A; Humphries, Steve E; Danesh, John; Rasheed, Asif; Goel, Anuj; Hamsten, Anders; Watkins, Hugh; Bakker, Stephan J L; van Gilst, Wiek H; Janipalli, Charles S; Mani, K Radha; Yajnik, Chittaranjan S; Hofman, Albert; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U S; Oostra, Ben A; Demirkan, Ayse; Isaacs, Aaron; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Lakatta, Edward G; Orru, Marco; Scuteri, Angelo; Ala-Korpela, Mika; Kangas, Antti J; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Soininen, Pasi; Tukiainen, Taru; Würtz, Peter; Ong, Rick Twee-Hee; Dörr, Marcus; Kroemer, Heyo K; Völker, Uwe; Völzke, Henry; Galan, Pilar; Hercberg, Serge; Lathrop, Mark; Zelenika, Diana; Deloukas, Panos; Mangino, Massimo; Spector, Tim D; Zhai, Guangju; Meschia, James F; Nalls, Michael A; Sharma, Pankaj; Terzic, Janos; Kumar, M V Kranthi; Denniff, Matthew; Zukowska-Szczechowska, Ewa; Wagenknecht, Lynne E; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Charchar, Fadi J; Schwarz, Peter E H; Hayward, Caroline; Guo, Xiuqing; Rotimi, Charles; Bots, Michiel L; Brand, Eva; Samani, Nilesh J; Polasek, Ozren; Talmud, Philippa J; Nyberg, Fredrik; Kuh, Diana; Laan, Maris; Hveem, Kristian; Palmer, Lyle J; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Casas, Juan P; Mohlke, Karen L; Vineis, Paolo; Raitakari, Olli; Ganesh, Santhi K; Wong, Tien Y; Tai, E Shyong; Cooper, Richard S; Laakso, Markku; Rao, Dabeeru C; Harris, Tamara B; Morris, Richard W; Dominiczak, Anna F; Kivimaki, Mika; Marmot, Michael G; Miki, Tetsuro; Saleheen, Danish; Chandak, Giriraj R; Coresh, Josef; Navis, Gerjan; Salomaa, Veikko; Han, Bok-Ghee; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kooner, Jaspal S; Melander, Olle; Ridker, Paul M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Gyllensten, Ulf B; Wright, Alan F; Wilson, James F; Ferrucci, Luigi; Farrall, Martin; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Pramstaller, Peter P; Elosua, Roberto; Soranzo, Nicole; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Altshuler, David; Loos, Ruth J F; Shuldiner, Alan R; Gieger, Christian; Meneton, Pierre; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Wareham, Nicholas J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Rotter, Jerome I; Rettig, Rainer; Uda, Manuela; Strachan, David P; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa; Beckmann, Jacques S; Boerwinkle, Eric; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Boehnke, Michael; Larson, Martin G; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Psaty, Bruce M; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Elliott, Paul; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Levy, Daniel; Caulfield, Mark J; Johnson, Toby

    2011-10-01

    Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention. PMID:21909115

  3. Modelling suicide risk in later life.

    PubMed

    Lo, C F; Kwok, Cordelia M Y

    2006-08-01

    Affective disorder is generally regarded as the prominent risk factor for suicide in the old age population. Despite the large number of empirical studies available in the literature, there is no attempt in modelling the dynamics of an individual's level of suicide risk theoretically yet. In particular, a dynamic model which can simulate the time evolution of an individual's level of risk for suicide and provide quantitative estimates of the probability of suicide risk is still lacking. In the present study we apply the contingent claims analysis of credit risk modelling in the field of quantitative finance to derive a theoretical stochastic model for estimation of the probability of suicide risk in later life in terms of a signalling index of affective disorder. Our model is based upon the hypothesis that the current state of affective disorder of a patient can be represented by a signalling index and exhibits stochastic movement and that a threshold of affective disorder, which signifies the occurrence of suicide, exists. According to the numerical results, the implications of our model are consistent with the clinical findings. Hence, we believe that such a dynamic model will be essential to the design of effective suicide prevention strategies in the target population of older adults, especially in the primary care setting. PMID:16797044

  4. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  5. Foot Modeling and Smart Plantar Pressure Reconstruction from Three Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Ghaida, Hussein Abou; Mottet, Serge; Goujon, Jean-Marc

    2014-01-01

    In order to monitor pressure under feet, this study presents a biomechanical model of the human foot. The main elements of the foot that induce the plantar pressure distribution are described. Then the link between the forces applied at the ankle and the distribution of the plantar pressure is established. Assumptions are made by defining the concepts of a 3D internal foot shape, which can be extracted from the plantar pressure measurements, and a uniform elastic medium, which describes the soft tissues behaviour. In a second part, we show that just 3 discrete pressure sensors per foot are enough to generate real time plantar pressure cartographies in the standing position or during walking. Finally, the generated cartographies are compared with pressure cartographies issued from the F-SCAN system. The results show 0.01 daN (2% of full scale) average error, in the standing position. PMID:25400713

  6. Visual Impairment/lntracranial Pressure Risk Clinical Care Data Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Baalen, Mary; Mason, Sara S.; Taiym, Wafa; Wear, Mary L.; Moynihan, Shannan; Alexander, David; Hart, Steve; Tarver, William

    2014-01-01

    Prior to 2010, several ISS crewmembers returned from spaceflight with changes to their vision, ranging from a mild hyperopic shift to frank disc edema. As a result, NASA expanded clinical vision testing to include more comprehensive medical imaging, including Optical Coherence Tomography and 3 Tesla Brain and Orbit MRIs. The Space and Clinical Operations (SCO) Division developed a clinical practice guideline that classified individuals based on their symptoms and diagnoses to facilitate clinical care. For the purposes of clinical surveillance, this classification was applied retrospectively to all crewmembers who had sufficient testing for classification. This classification is also a tool that has been leveraged for researchers to identify potential risk factors. In March 2014, driven in part by a more comprehensive understanding of the imaging data and increased imaging capability on orbit, the SCO Division revised their clinical care guidance to outline in-flight care and increase post-flight follow up. The new clinical guidance does not include a classification scheme

  7. Kinetic modelling of pressure filtration of ceramic powder suspensions

    SciTech Connect

    Correia, L.A.; Salomoni, A.; Hey, A.W.

    1995-09-01

    A kinetic model developed for radial pressure filtration is described and used to study the casting behaviour of an Alumina (Al6SG) and a Zirconia (TZ3Ys) slip stabilized with Dolapix CE64. For the Zirconia slip no influence of pressure and curvature is found. The casting behaviour of the Alumina slip seems to be influenced by both the pressure and the curvature of the filtrating surface.

  8. Overpaying morbidity adjusters in risk equalization models.

    PubMed

    van Kleef, R C; van Vliet, R C J A; van de Ven, W P M M

    2016-09-01

    Most competitive social health insurance markets include risk equalization to compensate insurers for predictable variation in healthcare expenses. Empirical literature shows that even the most sophisticated risk equalization models-with advanced morbidity adjusters-substantially undercompensate insurers for selected groups of high-risk individuals. In the presence of premium regulation, these undercompensations confront consumers and insurers with incentives for risk selection. An important reason for the undercompensations is that not all information with predictive value regarding healthcare expenses is appropriate for use as a morbidity adjuster. To reduce incentives for selection regarding specific groups we propose overpaying morbidity adjusters that are already included in the risk equalization model. This paper illustrates the idea of overpaying by merging data on morbidity adjusters and healthcare expenses with health survey information, and derives three preconditions for meaningful application. Given these preconditions, we think overpaying may be particularly useful for pharmacy-based cost groups. PMID:26420555

  9. Risk Management in environmental geotechnical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tammemäe, Olavi; Torn, Hardi

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this article is to provide an overview of the basis of risk analysis, assessment and management, accompanying problems and principles of risk management when drafting an environmental geotechnical model, enabling the analysis of an entire territory or developed region as a whole. The environmental impact will remain within the limits of the criteria specified with the standards and will be acceptable for human health and environment. An essential part of the solution of the problem is the engineering-geological model based on risk analysis and the assessment and forecast of mutual effects of the processes.

  10. Modeling turbulent boundary layers in adverse pressure gradients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcher, Stephen E.

    1991-01-01

    Many of the turbulent layers encountered in practical flows develop in adverse pressure gradients; hence, the dynamics of the thickening and possible separation of the boundary layer has important implications for design practices. What are the key physical processes that govern how a turbulent boundary layer responds to an adverse pressure gradient, and how should these processes be modeled? Despite the ubiquity of such flows in engineering and nature, these equations remain largely unanswered. The turbulence closure models presently used to describe these flows commonly use 'wall functions' that have ad hoc corrections for the effects of pressure gradients. There is, therefore, a practical and theoretical need to examine the effects of adverse pressure gradients on wall bounded turbulent flows in order to develop models based on sound physical principle. The evolution of a turbulent boundary layer on a flat wall with an externally imposed pressure gradient is studied.

  11. Clustering of cardiovascular behavioral risk factors and blood pressure among people diagnosed with hypertension: a nationally representative survey in China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yichong; Feng, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Mei; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Limin

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to examine association between the number of behavioral risk factors and blood pressure (BP) level among a nationally representative sample of Chinese people diagnosed with hypertension. A total of 31,694 respondents aged 18+ years with diagnosed hypertension were extracted from the 2013–2014 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance. BP of each respondent was classified into six levels according to criteria in 2007 Guidelines for the Management of Arterial Hypertension. Information for smoking, alcohol drinking, fruit and vegetables consumption, physical inactivity, and overweight and obesity were obtained. The average number of risk factors was determined by BP level to explore potential risk factor clustering. Ten generalized proportional odds models were used to examine association between clustering of behavioral risk factors and BP level. A clear gradient between the number of behavioral risk factors and BP level was observed for men and women (P < 0.05 for both genders). BP level for men and women was much likely to upgrade as number of risk factors accumulated (P < 0.01 for 10 models). Behavioral modifications may decrease BP, and combinations of two or more behavioral interventions could potentially result in even better BP management among people diagnosed with hypertension. PMID:27279273

  12. Clustering of cardiovascular behavioral risk factors and blood pressure among people diagnosed with hypertension: a nationally representative survey in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Yichong; Feng, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Mei; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Limin

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to examine association between the number of behavioral risk factors and blood pressure (BP) level among a nationally representative sample of Chinese people diagnosed with hypertension. A total of 31,694 respondents aged 18+ years with diagnosed hypertension were extracted from the 2013-2014 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance. BP of each respondent was classified into six levels according to criteria in 2007 Guidelines for the Management of Arterial Hypertension. Information for smoking, alcohol drinking, fruit and vegetables consumption, physical inactivity, and overweight and obesity were obtained. The average number of risk factors was determined by BP level to explore potential risk factor clustering. Ten generalized proportional odds models were used to examine association between clustering of behavioral risk factors and BP level. A clear gradient between the number of behavioral risk factors and BP level was observed for men and women (P < 0.05 for both genders). BP level for men and women was much likely to upgrade as number of risk factors accumulated (P < 0.01 for 10 models). Behavioral modifications may decrease BP, and combinations of two or more behavioral interventions could potentially result in even better BP management among people diagnosed with hypertension. PMID:27279273

  13. Pressurized water reactor fuel crud and corrosion modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshon, Jeff; Hussey, Dennis; Kendrick, Brian; McGurk, John; Secker, Jeff; Short, Michael

    2011-08-01

    Pressurized water reactors circulate high-temperature water that slowly corrodes Inconel and stainless steel system surfaces, and the nickel/iron based corrosion products deposit in regions of the fuel where sub-cooled nucleate boiling occurs. The deposited corrosion products, called `crud', can have an adverse impact on fuel performance. Boron can concentrate within the crud in the boiling regions of the fuel leading to a phenomenon known as axial offset anomaly (AOA). In rare cases, fuel clad integrity can be compromised because of crud-induced localized corrosion (CILC) of the zirconium-based alloy. Westinghouse and the Electric Power Research Institute have committed to understanding the crud transport process and develop a risk assessment software tool called boron-induced offset anomaly (BOA) to avoid AOA and CILC. This paper reviews the history of the BOA model development and new efforts to develop a micro-scale model called MAMBA for use in the Consortium for Advanced Light Water Reactor Simulation (CASL) program.

  14. A turbulence model for nonequilibrium adverse pressure gradient flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horstman, C. C.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a method for calculating compressible adverse pressure gradient boundary layers by using an algebraic eddy viscosity turbulence model that has been modified for variable pressure gradient and turbulence memory effects. The pressure gradient corrections are based on previous incompressible data correlations. Several methods for including the effects of turbulence memory are evaluated. A new lag model, which gives good agreement with available experimental data, is developed. Finally, a correlation is developed for the lag length parameter employed in the model as a function of the known experimental flow variables.

  15. The incidence, risk factors and characteristics of pressure ulcers in hospitalized patients in China

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Qixia; Li, Xiaohua; Qu, Xiaolong; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Liyan; Su, Chunyin; Guo, Xiujun; Chen, Yuejuan; Zhu, Yajun; Jia, Jing; Bo, Suping; Liu, Li; Zhang, Rui; Xu, Ling; Wu, Leyan; Wang, Hai; Wang, Jiandong

    2014-01-01

    Pressure ulcers are very common in hospital patients. Though many studies have been reported in many countries, the large-scale benchmarking prevalence of pressure ulcers in China is not available. The aim of this study is to quantify the prevalence of pressure ulcers and the incidence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers and analyze risk factors in hospitalized patients in China. A multi-central cross-sectional survey was conducted in one university hospital and 11 general hospitals in China. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) recommended by European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel (EUPAP) was used to collect information of inpatients. All patients stayed in hospital more than 24 hours and older than 18 years signed consent form and were included. Data from 39952 out of 40415 (98.85%) inpatients were analyzed. Of the 39952 patients, 631 patients (including 1024 locations) had pressure ulcers. The prevalence rate of pressure ulcers in 12 hospitals was 1.58% (0.94-2.97%). The incidence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPU) was 0.63% (0.20-1.20%). The most common locations developed pressure ulcers were sacrum, heels, and iliac crests. The common stages of pressure ulcers were stage I and II. Patients in Intensive Care Unit, Geriatric and Neurological Department were easier to develop pressure ulcers. The prevalence and incidence of pressure ulcers in China was lower than that reported in European and other countries. The stages of pressure ulcers in China were different than that reported in European countries. Our study provides with a baseline value for intensive research on pressure ulcer in China. PMID:24966973

  16. Minimum risk route model for hazardous materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ashtakala, B.; Eno, L.A.

    1996-09-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the minimum risk route for transporting a specific hazardous material (HM) between a point of origin and a point of destination (O-D pair) in the study area which minimizes risk to population and environment. The southern part of Quebec is chosen as the study area and major cities are identified as points of origin and destination on the highway network. Three classes of HM, namely chlorine gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and sulfuric acid, are chosen. A minimum risk route model has been developed to determine minimum risk routes between an O-D pair by using population or environment risk units as link impedances. The risk units for each link are computed by taking into consideration the probability of an accident and its consequences on that link. The results show that between the same O-D pair, the minimum risk routes are different for various HM. The concept of risk dissipation from origin to destination on the minimum risk route has been developed and dissipation curves are included.

  17. Characterization of a Murine Pressure Ulcer Model to Assess Efficacy of Adipose-derived Stromal Cells

    PubMed Central

    Strong, Amy L.; Bowles, Annie C.; MacCrimmon, Connor P.; Lee, Stephen J.; Frazier, Trivia P.; Katz, Adam J.; Gawronska-Kozak, Barbara; Bunnell, Bruce A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: As the world’s population lives longer, the number of individuals at risk for pressure ulcers will increase considerably in the coming decades. In developed countries, up to 18% of nursing home residents suffer from pressure ulcers and the resulting hospital costs can account for up to 4% of a nation’s health care budget. Although full-thickness surgical skin wounds have been used as a model, preclinical rodent studies have demonstrated that repeated cycles of ischemia and reperfusion created by exposure to magnets most closely mimic the human pressure ulcer condition. Methods: This study uses in vivo and in vitro quantitative parameters to characterize the temporal kinetics and histology of pressure ulcers in young, female C57BL/6 mice exposed to 2 or 3 ischemia-reperfusion cycles. This pressure ulcer model was validated further in studies examining the efficacy of adipose-derived stromal/stem cell administration. Results: Optimal results were obtained with the 2-cycle model based on the wound size, histology, and gene expression profile of representative angiogenic and reparative messenger RNAs. When treated with adipose-derived stromal/stem cells, pressure ulcer wounds displayed a dose-dependent and significant acceleration in wound closure rates and improved tissue histology. Conclusion: These findings document the utility of this simplified preclinical model for the evaluation of novel tissue engineering and medical approaches to treat pressure ulcers in humans. PMID:25878945

  18. Modeling flow in a pressure-sensitive, heterogeneous medium

    SciTech Connect

    Vasco, Donald W.; Minkoff, Susan E.

    2009-06-01

    Using an asymptotic methodology, including an expansion in inverse powers of {radical}{omega}, where {omega} is the frequency, we derive a solution for flow in a medium with pressure dependent properties. The solution is valid for a heterogeneous medium with smoothly varying properties. That is, the scale length of the heterogeneity must be significantly larger then the scale length over which the pressure increases from it initial value to its peak value. The resulting asymptotic expression is similar in form to the solution for pressure in a medium in which the flow properties are not functions of pressure. Both the expression for pseudo-phase, which is related to the 'travel time' of the transient pressure disturbance, and the expression for pressure amplitude contain modifications due to the pressure dependence of the medium. We apply the method to synthetic and observed pressure variations in a deforming medium. In the synthetic test we model one-dimensional propagation in a pressure-dependent medium. Comparisons with both an analytic self-similar solution and the results of a numerical simulation indicate general agreement. Furthermore, we are able to match pressure variations observed during a pulse test at the Coaraze Laboratory site in France.

  19. Low temperature ablation models made by pressure/vacuum application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fischer, M. C.; Heier, W. C.

    1970-01-01

    Method developed employs high pressure combined with strong vacuum force to compact ablation models into desired conical shape. Technique eliminates vapor hazard and results in high material density providing excellent structural integrity.

  20. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.

    2012-07-01

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  1. Genetic and BMI Risks for Predicting Blood Pressure in Three Generations of West African Dogon Women

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Jacquelyn Y.; Sampson, Deborah; Taylor, Andre D.; Caldwell, Dennis; Sun, Yan V.

    2011-01-01

    The study of genetic polymorphisms and body mass index (BMI) among African women in Africa and in the United States contributes to our understanding of the genetic and environmental risk factors for hypertension. African American women have the highest prevalence of hypertension and obesity compared to other ethnic groups in the United States. Using a crosssectional research design, we examined the effects of genetic and environmental risks of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and BMI on blood pressure (BP) among three generations of West African Dogon women (N = 199). We genotyped six SNPs located in the candidate genes known to be related to hypertension. We tested the associations between these SNPs and systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) with Fisher’s exact tests, chi-square tests for independence, and multivariable linear mixed models. The SNP rs8179526 (SLC4A5) was significantly associated with SBP adjusted for age, age2, and BMI (p = .02). The “C” allele variant of rs8179526 (allele frequency of 0.445) was associated with higher SBP. This SNP did not deviate from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) with p value of .772. The SNP × BMI interaction effects associated with SBP and DBP were not significant. rs8179526 is located on the SLC4A5 gene on chromosome 2. SLC4A5 encodes a protein that transports sodium and bicarbonate across cell membranes while regulating cellular pH and contains several SNPs linked to elevated BP. Knowledge of the SNP’s effect on hypertension among West African women can help health practitioners educate their patients about genetic risks of developing hypertension. PMID:21859746

  2. Modelling oxygen self-diffusion in UO2 under pressure

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Cooper, Michael William D.; Grimes, R. W.; Fitzpatrick, M. E.; Chroneos, A.

    2015-10-22

    Access to values for oxygen self-diffusion over a range of temperatures and pressures in UO2 is important to nuclear fuel applications. Here, elastic and expansivity data are used in the framework of a thermodynamic model, the cBΩ model, to derive the oxygen self-diffusion coefficient in UO2 over a range of pressures (0–10 GPa) and temperatures (300–1900 K). Furthermore, the significant reduction in oxygen self-diffusion as a function of increasing hydrostatic pressure, and the associated increase in activation energy, is identified.

  3. Thresholds for Diagnosing Hypertension Based on Automated Office Blood Pressure Measurements and Cardiovascular Risk.

    PubMed

    Myers, Martin G; Kaczorowski, Janusz; Paterson, J Michael; Dolovich, Lisa; Tu, Karen

    2015-09-01

    The risk of cardiovascular events in relation to blood pressure is largely based on readings taken with a mercury sphygmomanometer in populations which differ from those of today in terms of hypertension severity and drug therapy. Given replacement of the mercury sphygmomanometer with electronic devices, we sought to determine the blood pressure threshold for a significant increase in cardiovascular risk using a fully automated device, which takes multiple readings with the subject resting quietly alone. Participants were 3627 community-dwelling residents aged >65 years untreated for hypertension. Automated office blood pressure readings were obtained in a community pharmacy with subjects seated and undisturbed. This method for recording blood pressure produces similar readings in different settings, including a pharmacy and family doctor's office providing the above procedures are followed. Subjects were followed for a mean (SD) of 4.9 (1.0) years for fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were computed for 10 mm Hg increments in blood pressure (mm Hg) using Cox proportional hazards regression and the blood pressure category with the lowest event rate as the reference category. A total of 271 subjects experienced a cardiovascular event. There was a significant (P=0.02) increase in the hazard ratio of 1.66 (1.09, 2.54) at a systolic blood pressure of 135 to 144 and 1.72 (1.21, 2.45; P=0.003) at a diastolic blood pressure of 80 to 89. A significant (P=0.03) increase in hazard ratio of 1.73 (1.04, 2.86) occurred with a pulse pressure of 80 to 89. These findings are consistent with a threshold of 135/85 for diagnosing hypertension in older subjects using automated office blood pressure. PMID:26269653

  4. Improved Solar-Radiation-Pressure Models for GPS Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Kuang, Da

    2006-01-01

    A report describes a series of computational models conceived as an improvement over prior models for determining effects of solar-radiation pressure on orbits of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. These models are based on fitting coefficients of Fourier functions of Sun-spacecraft- Earth angles to observed spacecraft orbital motions.

  5. Evaluation of simplified analytical models for CO2 plume movement and pressure buildup

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oruganti, Y.; Mishra, S.

    2011-12-01

    CO2 injection into the sub-surface is emerging as a viable technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. When large amounts of CO2 are sequestered, pressure buildup is an associated risk, along with plume movement beyond the injected domain. In this context, simple modeling tools become valuable assets in preliminary CO2 injection project screening and implementation phases. This study presents an evaluation of two commonly used simplified analytical models for plume movement and pressure buildup, (1) the sharp interface model of Nordbotten et al. (2005), and the corresponding pressure distribution solution of Mathias et al. (2008), and (2) the 3-region model of Burton et al. (2008) based on fractional flow and steady-state pressure gradient considerations. The three-region model of Burton et al. assumes a constant pressure outer boundary. In this study, we incorporate the radius of investigation of the pressure front as the transient pressure boundary, in order to represent an infinite-acting system. The sharp-interface model also assumes the system to be infinite-acting. Temperature and pressure conditions used in these models correspond to the "warm, shallow" and "cold, deep" aquifer conditions as defined by Nordbotten et al. The saturation and pressure profiles as well as injection-well pressure buildup predicted by the analytical models are compared with those from the numerical simulator STOMP in order to provide a verification of the simplified modeling assumptions. Both the STOMP results and the three-region model show two sharp fronts (the drying and two-phase fronts), and a good match is obtained between the front positions at any time. For the sharp interface model, the vertically averaged gas saturation does not exhibit two sharp fronts as seen in the STOMP simulations, but shows a gradual change in saturation with radial distance over the two-phase region. The pressure profiles from STOMP and the analytical model are

  6. An asperity-deformation model for effective pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gangi, Anthony F.; Carlson, Richard L.

    1996-05-01

    Variations of the mechanical and transport properties of cracked and/or porous rocks under isotropic stress depend on both the confining pressure ( Pc) and the pore-fluid pressure ( Pp). To a first approximation, these rock properties are functions of the differential pressure, Pd = Pc - Pp; at least for low differential pressures. However, at higher differential pressures, the properties depend in a more complicated way upon the two pressures. The concept of effective pressure, Pe, is used to denote this variation and it is defined as Pe( Pc, Pp) = Pc - n( Pc, Pp) Pp. If n = 1 (and therefore, is independent of Pc and Pp), the effective pressure is just the differential pressure. We have used an asperity-deformation model and a force-balance equation to derive expressions for the effective pressure. We equate the total external force (in one direction), Fc, to the total force on the asperities, Fa, and the force of the fluid, Fp, acting in that same direction. The fluid force, Fp, acts only on the parts of the crack (or pore-volume) faces which are not in contact. Then, the asperity pressure, Pa, is the average force per unit area acting on the crack (or grain) contacts P a = {F a}/{A} = {F c}/{A} - {F p}/{A} = P c - (1 - {A c}/{A})P p, where A is the total area over which Fc acts and Ac is the area of contact of the crack asperities or the grains. Thus, the asperity pressure, Pa, is greater than the differential pressure, Pd, because Pp acts on a smaller area, A- Ac, than the total area, A. For elastic asperities, the area of contact Ac and the strain (e.g., crack and pore openings) remain the same, to a high degree of approximation, at constant asperity pressure. Therefore, transport properties such as permeability, resistivity, thermal conductivity, etc. are constant, to the same degree of approximation, at constant asperity pressure. For these properties, the asperity pressure is, very accurately, the effective pressure, Pc. Using this model, we find that the

  7. Long range Ising model for credit risk modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molins, Jordi; Vives, Eduard

    2005-07-01

    Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising model is the adequate model for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit risk when default correlations between the borrowers are included. The exact analysis of the model suggest that when the correlation increases a first-order-like transition may occur inducing a sudden risk increase.

  8. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

  9. Constructing high-pressure thermodynamic models: problems and possible solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brosh, E.

    2013-12-01

    Conventional thermodynamic databases (e.g. Fabrichnaya et al. 2004, Holland and Powell 1998, 2011) consist of expressions for the Gibbs energy at ambient pressure, extended to higher pressures through the integration of some EOS (Equation Of State). While this is simple and straight-forward, such thermodynamic models are prone to produce manifestly unphysical predictions of negative thermal expansion and even negative heat capacity at high pressure. It has been shown (Brosh et al. 2007) that these errors arise not only from problems the EOS itself but also from incompatibilities between the EOS and the models used for extrapolations of the heat capacity at ambient pressure. One solution is a radical restructuring of thermodynamic databases. Instead of modelling the Gibbs energy, new databases can be based on modelling the Helmholtz energy using Debye-Mie-Grüneisen EOS. This approach is very successful for modelling solid substances (Jacobs 2009, 2010, Dorogokupets et al. 2007, 2012) but the Debye-Mie-Grüneisen equations of state are not easily applicable to liquids. Other difficulties stem from the treatment of the predicted mechanical instability above the normal melting point. However, the most severe difficulty with the utilization of the Debye-Mie-Grüneisen approach is that it is incompatible with the current ambient-pressure thermodynamic databases and one will not be able to use them as a basis for high pressure modelling. Another approach (Brosh et al. 2007) is based on an interpolation of the thermophysical properties between the ambient pressure models given in conventional databases and the Debye-Mie-Grüneisen model at extreme pressures. This avoids most of the spurious anomalies of conventional models. The limitations of the interpolation scheme are the inclusion of several model parameters whose physical essence is not well-defined and an underestimation of the heat capacity at high pressures. In this presentation, the predictions of the

  10. Modelling and Analysis of High Pressure Peaking Switch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    S, Bindu; Parekh, Mrunal; Mangalvedekar, H. A.; Sharma, Archana; Chakravarthy, D. P.

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents modelling and analysis of peaking switch used in Marx generator, such that the rise time of the pulse produced by the Marx generator is reduced substantially. Towards this FEMM (Finite Element Methods Magnetics) software is used for the field modelling of the switch and MATLAB for circuit modelling to observe the rise time. The switch has to produce pulse with sub-nanosecond rise time, hence the electrode distance has to be minimum. This switch can withstand high voltage only under high pressure. A mathematical model is simulated in MATLAB to see the performance under high pressure.

  11. Cryogenic Pressure Control Modeling for Ellipsoidal Space Tanks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lopez, Alfredo; Grayson, Gary D.; Chandler, Frank O.; Hastings, Leon J.; Heyadat, Ali

    2007-01-01

    A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate pressure control of an ellipsoidal-shaped liquid hydrogen tank under external heating in normal gravity. Pressure control is provided by an axial jet thermodynamic vent system (TVS) centered within the vessel that injects cooler liquid into the tank, mixing the contents and reducing tank pressure. The two-phase cryogenic tank model considers liquid hydrogen in its own vapor with liquid density varying with temperature only and a fully compressible ullage. The axisymmetric model is developed using a custom version of the commercially available FLOW-31) software. Quantitative model validation is ,provided by engineering checkout tests performed at Marshall Space Flight Center in 1999 in support of the Solar Thermal Upper Stage_ Technology Demonstrator (STUSTD) program. The engineering checkout tests provide cryogenic tank self-pressurization test data at various heat leaks and tank fill levels. The predicted self-pressurization rates, ullage and liquid temperatures at discrete locations within the STUSTD tank are in good agreement with test data. The work presented here advances current CFD modeling capabilities for cryogenic pressure control and helps develop a low cost CFD-based design process for space hardware.

  12. Assessing Predictive Validity of Pressure Ulcer Risk Scales- A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    PARK, Seong-Hi; LEE, Hea Shoon

    2016-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to present a scientific reason for pressure ulcer risk scales: Cubbin& Jackson modified Braden, Norton, and Waterlow, as a nursing diagnosis tool by utilizing predictive validity of pressure sores. Methods: Articles published between 1966 and 2013 from periodicals indexed in the Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, KoreaMed, NDSL, and other databases were selected using the key word “pressure ulcer”. QUADAS-II was applied for assessment for internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were analyzed using meta-analysis with MetaDisc 1.4. Results: Seventeen diagnostic studies with high methodological quality, involving 5,185 patients, were included. In the results of the meta-analysis, sROC AUC of Braden, Norton, and Waterflow scale was over 0.7, showing moderate predictive validity, but they have limited interpretation due to significant differences between studies. In addition, Waterlow scale is insufficient as a screening tool owing to low sensitivity compared with other scales. Conclusion: The contemporary pressure ulcer risk scale is not suitable for uninform practice on patients under standardized criteria. Therefore, in order to provide more effective nursing care for bedsores, a new or modified pressure ulcer risk scale should be developed upon strength and weaknesses of existing tools. PMID:27114977

  13. Awareness and Knowledge of Cardiovascular Risk through Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Testing in College Freshmen

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melnyk, J. A.; Panza, G.; Zaleski, A.; Taylor, B.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, yet knowledge of CVD risk factors is surprisingly low in college students. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of an individualized blood pressure, cholesterol, and CVD education intervention on college freshmen. Methods:…

  14. Pressure transient modeling of a fractured geothermal reservior

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    A fracture network model has been developed to simulate transient fluid flow behavior in a fractured rock mass. Included is a pressure-dependent aperture submodel to simulate behavior often seen in fractured systems. The model is used to simulate data from the Fenton Hill Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal reservoir. Both low-pressure/low-flow-rate and high-pressure/high-flow-rate transient data are adequately simulated. The model parameters obtained suggest ways in which the model can be refined to achieve even more realistic fits to the data. The model is then used to demonstrate more efficient operating modes than the two-well circulating mode usually proposed for HDR reservoirs. 11 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Microscopic pressure-cooker model for studying molecules in confinement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santamaria, Ruben; Adamowicz, Ludwik; Rosas-Acevedo, Hortensia

    2015-04-01

    A model for a system of a finite number of molecules in confinement is presented and expressions for determining the temperature, pressure, and volume of the system are derived. The present model is a generalisation of the Zwanzig-Langevin model because it includes pressure effects in the system. It also has general validity, preserves the ergodic hypothesis, and provides a formal framework for previous studies of hydrogen clusters in confinement. The application of the model is illustrated by an investigation of a set of prebiotic compounds exposed to varying pressure and temperature. The simulations performed within the model involve the use of a combination of molecular dynamics and density functional theory methods implemented on a computer system with a mixed CPU-GPU architecture.

  16. Optimal Blood Pressure Goals in Patients With Hypertension at High Risk for Cardiovascular Events.

    PubMed

    Aronow, Wilbert S

    2016-01-01

    Existing epidemiologic and clinical trial data suggest that the blood pressure in patients with hypertension at high risk for cardiovascular events because of coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, stroke, or heart failure should be reduced to <140/90 mm Hg in patients younger than 80 years and the systolic blood pressure be reduced to 140-145 mm Hg if tolerated in patients aged 80 years and older. Studies from patients with coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, stroke, and heart failure will be discussed that support a blood pressure goal of <140/90 mm Hg in patients younger than 80 years at high risk for cardiovascular events. PMID:23591024

  17. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al. PMID:25226200

  18. CFD Modeling of Helium Pressurant Effects on Cryogenic Tank Pressure Rise Rates in Normal Gravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grayson, Gary; Lopez, Alfredo; Chandler, Frank; Hastings, Leon; Hedayat, Ali; Brethour, James

    2007-01-01

    A recently developed computational fluid dynamics modeling capability for cryogenic tanks is used to simulate both self-pressurization from external heating and also depressurization from thermodynamic vent operation. Axisymmetric models using a modified version of the commercially available FLOW-3D software are used to simulate actual physical tests. The models assume an incompressible liquid phase with density that is a function of temperature only. A fully compressible formulation is used for the ullage gas mixture that contains both condensable vapor and a noncondensable gas component. The tests, conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, include both liquid hydrogen and nitrogen in tanks with ullage gas mixtures of each liquid's vapor and helium. Pressure and temperature predictions from the model are compared to sensor measurements from the tests and a good agreement is achieved. This further establishes the accuracy of the developed FLOW-3D based modeling approach for cryogenic systems.

  19. The Nursing Diagnosis of risk for pressure ulcer: content validation 1

    PubMed Central

    dos Santos, Cássia Teixeira; Almeida, Miriam de Abreu; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: to validate the content of the new nursing diagnosis, termed risk for pressure ulcer. Method: the content validation with a sample made up of 24 nurses who were specialists in skin care from six different hospitals in the South and Southeast of Brazil. Data collection took place electronically, through an instrument constructed using the SurveyMonkey program, containing a title, definition, and 19 risk factors for the nursing diagnosis. The data were analyzed using Fehring's method and descriptive statistics. The project was approved by a Research Ethics Committee. Results: title, definition and seven risk factors were validated as "very important": physical immobilization, pressure, surface friction, shearing forces, skin moisture, alteration in sensation and malnutrition. Among the other risk factors, 11 were validated as "important": dehydration, obesity, anemia, decrease in serum albumin level, prematurity, aging, smoking, edema, impaired circulation, and decrease in oxygenation and in tissue perfusion. The risk factor of hyperthermia was discarded. Conclusion: the content validation of these components of the nursing diagnosis corroborated the importance of the same, being able to facilitate the nurse's clinical reasoning and guiding clinical practice in the preventive care for pressure ulcers. PMID:27305182

  20. Is Pulse Pressure an Independent Risk Factor for Incident Stroke, REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Halberg, Daniel L.; Sands, Charles D.; Mosher, Aleena; Muntner, Paul M.; Howard, George

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Pulse pressure (PP) is a potential risk factor of stroke. The relationship of incident stroke with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and PP was examined. METHODS Data were from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke national cohort study of 30,239 black and white participants aged ≥45 years, enrolled between 2003 and 2007. PP (SBP−DBP) and MAP (MAP = DBP + 1/3*PP) were calculated. Telephone follow-up occurred every six months for self or proxy-reported suspected stroke events, confirmed using expert adjudication. Cox-proportional hazards models examined the association of incident stroke for the different BP measurements with multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic and clinical risk factors including gender and race. RESULTS Men and women without prevalent stroke at baseline were analyzed (n = 25,462). During follow-up (mean 6.3±2.3 years, maximum 10 years), 916 strokes occurred. Unadjusted PP (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24–1.35), SBP (HR = 1.22; 95% CI 1.18–1.32), MAP (HR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.16–1.32), and DBP (HR = 1.09; 95% CI 1.01–1.17) were associated with stroke risk; however, after adjustment for SBP and other risk factors, the association with PP was attenuated (HR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.90–1.07), whereas SBP persisted as a predictor (HR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.06–1.23). These associations were consistent across age (younger vs. older >70 years) and race (black vs. white). CONCLUSIONS PP is positively associated with incident stroke, but not independently from SBP; and, there were no significant gender, racial, or regional differences in that association. PMID:25588699

  1. Modeling and Managing Risk in Billing Infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baiardi, Fabrizio; Telmon, Claudio; Sgandurra, Daniele

    This paper discusses risk modeling and risk management in information and communications technology (ICT) systems for which the attack impact distribution is heavy tailed (e.g., power law distribution) and the average risk is unbounded. Systems with these properties include billing infrastructures used to charge customers for services they access. Attacks against billing infrastructures can be classified as peripheral attacks and backbone attacks. The goal of a peripheral attack is to tamper with user bills; a backbone attack seeks to seize control of the billing infrastructure. The probability distribution of the overall impact of an attack on a billing infrastructure also has a heavy-tailed curve. This implies that the probability of a massive impact cannot be ignored and that the average impact may be unbounded - thus, even the most expensive countermeasures would be cost effective. Consequently, the only strategy for managing risk is to increase the resilience of the infrastructure by employing redundant components.

  2. Model of a stationary microwave argon discharge at atmospheric pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Zhelyazkov, I.; Pencheva, M.; Benova, E.

    2008-03-19

    The many applications of microwave gas discharges at atmospheric pressure in various fields of science, technology and medicine require an adequate model of these discharges. Such a model is based on the electromagnetic wave's propagation properties and on the elementary processes in the discharge bulk. In contrast to the microwave discharges at low-gas pressures, where many elementary processes might be ignored because of their negligible contribution to the electron and heavy particle's balance equations, for such discharges at atmospheric pressure the consideration of a large number of collisional processes is mandatory. For the build of a successful discharge-column model one needs three important quantities, notably the power {theta} necessary for sustaining an electron - ion pair, electron - neutral collision frequency for momentum transfer v{sub en}, and gas temperature T{sub g}. The first two key parameters are obtained by a collisional-radiative model of the argon at atmospheric pressure, while the microwave frequency {omega}/2{pi} = 2.45 GHz, plasma column radius R, gas pressure p and gas temperature T{sub g} are fixed external parameters determined by the experimental conditions. Here, we present a model of a capillary argon microwave plasma column with a length L {approx_equal} 14 cm, sustained by wave power of 110 W - the model yields the longitudinal distributions of the plasma density, expended wave power, wave electric field magnitude, and complex wave number.

  3. Model of a stationary microwave argon discharge at atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhelyazkov, I.; Pencheva, M.; Benova, E.

    2008-03-01

    The many applications of microwave gas discharges at atmospheric pressure in various fields of science, technology and medicine require an adequate model of these discharges. Such a model is based on the electromagnetic wave's propagation properties and on the elementary processes in the discharge bulk. In contrast to the microwave discharges at low-gas pressures, where many elementary processes might be ignored because of their negligible contribution to the electron and heavy particle's balance equations, for such discharges at atmospheric pressure the consideration of a large number of collisional processes is mandatory. For the build of a successful discharge-column model one needs three important quantities, notably the power θ necessary for sustaining an electron—ion pair, electron—neutral collision frequency for momentum transfer ven, and gas temperature Tg. The first two key parameters are obtained by a collisional-radiative model of the argon at atmospheric pressure, while the microwave frequency ω/2π = 2.45 GHz, plasma column radius R, gas pressure p and gas temperature Tg are fixed external parameters determined by the experimental conditions. Here, we present a model of a capillary argon microwave plasma column with a length L ≈ 14 cm, sustained by wave power of 110 W—the model yields the longitudinal distributions of the plasma density, expended wave power, wave electric field magnitude, and complex wave number.

  4. An electronic scanner of pressure for wind tunnel models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kauffman, Ronald C.; Coe, Charles F.

    1986-01-01

    An electronic scanner of pressure (ESOP) has been developed by NASA Ames Research Center for installation in wind tunnel models. An ESOP system consists of up to 20 pressure modules (PMs), each with 48 pressure transducers and a heater, an analog-to-digital (A/D) converter module, a microprocessor, a data controller, a monitor unit, a control and processing unit, and a heater controller. The PMs and the A/D converter module are sized to be installed in the models tested in the Ames Aerodynamics Division wind tunnels. A unique feature of the pressure module is the lack of moving parts such as a pneumatic switch used in other systems for in situ calibrations. This paper describes the ESOP system and the results of the initial testing of the system. The initial results indicate the system meets the original design goal of 0.15 percent accuracy.

  5. Unsteady pressure loads in a generic high speed engine model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parrott, Tony L.; Jones, Michael G.; Thurlow, Ernie M.

    1992-01-01

    Unsteady pressure loads were measured along the top interior wall of a generic high-speed engine (GHSE) model undergoing performance tests in the combustion-Heated Scramjet Test Facility at the Langley Research Center. Flow to the model inlet was simulated at 72000 ft and a flight Mach number of 4. The inlet Mach number was 3.5 with a total temperature and pressure of 1640 R and 92 psia. The unsteady pressure loads were measured with 5 piezoresistive gages, recessed into the wall 4 to 12 gage diameters to reduce incident heat flux to the diaphragms, and distributed from the inlet to the combustor. Contributors to the unsteady pressure loads included boundary layer turbulence, combustion noise, and transients generated by unstart loads. Typical turbulent boundary layer rms pressures in the inlet ranged from 133 dB in the inlet to 181 dB in the combustor over the frequency range from 0 to 5 kHz. Downstream of the inlet exist, combustion noise was shown to dominate boundary layer turbulence noise at increased heat release rates. Noise levels in the isolator section increased by 15 dB when the fuel-air ratio was increased from 0.37 to 0.57 of the stoichiometric ratio. Transient pressure disturbances associated with engine unstarts were measured in the inlet and have an upstream propagation speed of about 7 ft/sec and pressure jumps of at least 3 psia.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Pressures on N and P Loads and Potential Eutrophication Risk at Regional Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupas, R.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Delmas, M.; Moatar, F.

    2014-12-01

    Excessive nutrient loading of freshwater bodies results in increased eutrophication risk worldwide. The processes controlling N/P transfer in agricultural landscapes are well documented through scientific studies conducted in intensively monitored catchments. However, managers need tools to assess water quality and evaluate the contribution of agriculture to eutrophication at regional scales, including unmonitored or poorly monitored areas. To this end, we present an assessment framework which includes: i) a mass-balance model to estimate diffuse N/P transfer and retention and ii) indicators based on N:P:Si molar ratios to assess potential eutrophication risk from external loads. The model, called Nutting (Dupas et al., 2013), integrates variables for both detailed description of agricultural pressures (N surplus, soil P content) and characterisation of physical attributes of catchments (including spatial attributes). It was calibrated on 160 catchments, and applied to 2210 unmonitored headwater bodies in France (Dupas et al., under review). N and P retention represented 53% and 95% of soil N and P surplus, respectively, and was mainly controlled by runoff and an index characterising infiltration/runoff properties. According to our estimates, diffuse agricultural sources represented a mean of 97% of N loads and N exceeded Si in 93% of the catchments, whilst they represented 46% of P loads and P exceeded Si in 26-65% of the catchments. Estimated eutrophication risk was highly sensitive to assumptions about P bioavailability, hence the range of headwaters potentially at risk spanned 26-63% of the catchments, depending on assumptions. To reduce this uncertainty, we recommend introducing P bioavailability tests in water monitoring programs, especially in sensitive areas. Dupas R et al. Assessing N emissions in surface water at the national level: comparison of country-wide vs. regionalized models. Sci Total Environ 2013; 443: 152-62. Dupas R et al. Assessing the impact

  7. Prediction of mean arterial blood pressure with linear stochastic models.

    PubMed

    Genc, Sahika

    2011-01-01

    A model-based approach that integrates known portion of the cardiovascular system and unknown portion through a parameter estimation to predict evolution of the mean arterial pressure is considered. The unknown portion corresponds to the neural portion that acts like a controller that takes corrective actions to regulate the arterial blood pressure at a constant level. The input to the neural part is the arterial pressure and output is the sympathetic nerve activity. In this model, heart rate is considered a proxy for sympathetic nerve activity. The neural portion is modeled as a linear discrete-time system with random coefficients. The performance of the model is tested on a case study of acute hypotensive episodes (AHEs) on PhysioNet data. TPRs and FPRs improve as more data becomes available during estimation period. PMID:22254409

  8. Modelling Unsteady Wall Pressures Beneath Turbulent Boundary Layers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahn, B-K.; Graham, W. R.; Rizzi, S. A.

    2004-01-01

    As a structural entity of turbulence, hairpin vortices are believed to play a major role in developing and sustaining the turbulence process in the near wall region of turbulent boundary layers and may be regarded as the simplest conceptual model that can account for the essential features of the wall pressure fluctuations. In this work we focus on fully developed typical hairpin vortices and estimate the associated surface pressure distributions and their corresponding spectra. On the basis of the attached eddy model, we develop a representation of the overall surface pressure spectra in terms of the eddy size distribution. Instantaneous wavenumber spectra and spatial correlations are readily derivable from this representation. The model is validated by comparison of predicted wavenumber spectra and cross-correlations with existing emperical models and experimental data.

  9. Accurate pressure gradient calculations in hydrostatic atmospheric models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carroll, John J.; Mendez-Nunez, Luis R.; Tanrikulu, Saffet

    1987-01-01

    A method for the accurate calculation of the horizontal pressure gradient acceleration in hydrostatic atmospheric models is presented which is especially useful in situations where the isothermal surfaces are not parallel to the vertical coordinate surfaces. The present method is shown to be exact if the potential temperature lapse rate is constant between the vertical pressure integration limits. The technique is applied to both the integration of the hydrostatic equation and the computation of the slope correction term in the horizontal pressure gradient. A fixed vertical grid and a dynamic grid defined by the significant levels in the vertical temperature distribution are employed.

  10. Exaggerated blood pressure response during the exercise treadmill test as a risk factor for hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Lima, S.G.; Albuquerque, M.F.P.M.; Oliveira, J.R.M.; Ayres, C.F.J.; Cunha, J.E.G.; Oliveira, D.F.; Lemos, R.R.; Souza, M.B.R.; Silva, O. Barbosa e

    2013-01-01

    Exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) during the exercise treadmill test (ETT) has been considered to be a risk factor for hypertension. The relationship of polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system gene with hypertension has not been established. Our objective was to evaluate whether EBPR during exercise is a clinical marker for hypertension. The study concerned a historical cohort of normotensive individuals. The exposed individuals were those who presented EBPR. At the end of the observation period (41.7 months = 3.5 years), the development of hypertension was analyzed within the two groups. Genetic polymorphisms and blood pressure behavior were assessed as independent variables, together with the classical risk factors for hypertension. The I/D gene polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme and M235T of angiotensinogen were ruled out as risk factors for hypertension. EBPR during ETT is not an independent influence on the chances of developing hypertension. No differences were observed between the hypertensive and normotensive individuals regarding gender (P = 0.655), skin color (P = 0.636), family history of hypertension (P = 0.225), diabetes mellitus (P = 0.285), or hypertriglyceridemia (P = 0.734). The risk of developing hypertension increased with increasing body mass index (BMI) and advancing age. The risk factors, which independently influenced the development of hypertension, were age and BMI. EBPR did not constitute an independent risk factor for hypertension and is probably a preclinical phase in the spectrum of normotension and hypertension. PMID:23598646

  11. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. PMID:27207023

  12. Pressure compensated fiber laser hydrophone: modeling and experimentation.

    PubMed

    Chandrika, Unnikrishnan Kuttan; Pallayil, Venugopalan; Lim, Kian Meng; Chew, Chye Heng

    2013-10-01

    A pressure compensated metal diaphragm based fiber laser hydrophone configuration that can provide good sensitivity, large bandwidth, and sea state zero noise floor is proposed in this paper. A simplified theoretical model of the proposed sensor configuration is developed in which the acoustic elements of the sensor configuration are modeled using a four-pole acoustic transfer matrix and the structural elements are modeled as second order single degree of freedom elements. This model is then used to optimize the design parameters of the sensor system to achieve the performance objectives. An axisymmetric finite element analysis of the sensor configuration is also carried out to validate the results from the simplified theoretical model. Prototype sensors were fabricated and hydrostatic testing in a pressure vessel validated the static pressure compensation performance of the sensor. Frequency dependent sensitivity of the sensor system was measured through acoustic testing in a water tank. The prototype sensor gave a flat frequency response up to 5 kHz and experimental results compared well with theoretical predictions. The sensor has an acceleration rejection figure on the order of 0 dB ref 1 m/s(2) Pa and the pressure compensation approach worked reasonably well up to a hydrostatic pressures equivalent to a depth of 50 m. PMID:24116409

  13. On the pressure calculation for polarizable models in computer simulation.

    PubMed

    Kiss, Péter T; Baranyai, András

    2012-03-14

    We present a short overview of pressure calculation in molecular dynamics or Monte Carlo simulations. The emphasis is given to polarizable models in order to resolve the controversy caused by the paper of M. J. Louwerse and E. J. Baerends [Chem. Phys. Lett. 421, 138 (2006)] about pressure calculation in systems with periodic boundaries. We systematically derive expressions for the pressure and show that despite the lack of explicit pairwise additivity, the pressure formula for polarizable models is identical with that of nonpolarizable ones. However, a strict condition for using this formula is that the induced dipole should be in perfect mechanical equilibrium prior to pressure calculation. The perfect convergence of induced dipoles ensures conservation of energy as well. We demonstrate using more cumbersome but exact methods that the derived expressions for the polarizable model of water provide correct numerical results. We also show that the inaccuracy caused by imperfect convergence of the induced dipoles correlates with the inaccuracy of the calculated pressure. PMID:22423830

  14. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  15. Exercise Blood Pressure and the Risk for Future Hypertension Among Normotensive Middle‐Aged Adults

    PubMed Central

    Berger, Assaf; Grossman, Ehud; Katz, Moshe; Kivity, Shaye; Klempfner, Robert; Segev, Shlomo; Goldenberg, Ilan; Sidi, Yehezkel; Maor, Elad

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of the present study was to examine whether exercise blood pressure can be used to predict the development of hypertension in normotensive middle‐aged adults. Methods and Results We investigated 7082 normotensive subjects who were annually screened in a tertiary medical center and completed maximal treadmill exercise tests at each visit. After the initial 3 years, subjects were divided into approximate quartiles according to their average exercise systolic and diastolic blood pressure responses (≤158; 158 to 170; 170 to 183; ≥183 mm Hg for systolic blood pressure and ≤73; 73 to 77; 77 to 82; ≥82 mm Hg for diastolic blood pressure). Mean age of the study population was 48±9 years and 73% were men. Average baseline resting blood pressure was 120/77±12/7 mm Hg. During a follow‐up of 5±3 years, 1036 (14.6%) subjects developed hypertension. The cumulative probability of new‐onset hypertension at 5 years was significantly increased with increasing quartiles of exercise systolic blood pressure (5%, 9%, 17%, and 35%, respectively; P<0.001), with a similar association shown for diastolic blood pressure. After adjustment for baseline resting blood pressure and clinical parameters, each 5‐mm Hg increments in exercise either systolic or diastolic blood pressures were independently associated with respective 11% (P<0.001) and 30% (P<0.001) increased risk for the development of hypertension. Conclusions In normotensive middle‐aged individuals, blood pressure response to exercise is associated with future development of hypertension. PMID:25904593

  16. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-06-01

    There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings. PMID:27310982

  17. Effects of established blood pressure loci on blood pressure values and hypertension risk in an Algerian population sample.

    PubMed

    Lardjam-Hetraf, S A; Mediene-Benchekor, S; Ouhaibi-Djellouli, H; Meroufel, D N; Boulenouar, H; Hermant, X; Hamani-Medjaoui, I; Saidi-Mehtar, N; Amouyel, P; Houti, L; Goumidi, L; Meirhaeghe, A

    2015-05-01

    Genome-wide association studies and subsequent replication studies have pinpointed 29 genetic variants associated with blood pressure (BP). None of these studies included North African populations. We therefore looked at whether or not these genetic variants modulated BP and hypertension (HTN) risk in an Algerian population sample. Twenty-nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in a representative sample of 787 subjects from the InSulino-résistance à ORan (ISOR) study (378 men and 409 women aged between 30 and 64 years and recruited from within the city of Oran, Algeria). Genetic variants were considered both individually and when combined as genetic predisposition scores (GPSs) for systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP) and HTN risk. The SNPs in CYP1A1-ULK3, HFE and SH2B3 were significantly associated with BP and/or HTN. The SBP-GPS, DBP-GPS and HTN-GPS were associated with higher levels of DBP (+0.24 mm Hg P=0.05, +0.23 mm Hg P = 0.05 and +0.26 mm Hg P = 0.03, respectively). Moreover, the three GPSs tended to be associated with a 6% higher risk of HTN. Our study is the first to show that some of the BP loci validated in subjects of European descent were associated (either individually or when combined as GPSs) with BP traits and/or the HTN risk in an Algerian population, but to a lesser extent than in European populations. Although larger studies and meta-analyses of North African populations are needed to confirm the present results, our data contribute to a better understanding of genetic susceptibility to HTN. PMID:25231511

  18. High pressure air jet in the endoscopic preparation room: risk of noise exposure on occupational health.

    PubMed

    Chiu, King-Wah; Lu, Lung-Sheng; Wu, Cheng-Kun

    2015-01-01

    After high-level disinfection of gastrointestinal endoscopes, they are hung to dry in order to prevent residual water droplets impact on patient health. To allow for quick drying and clinical reuse, some endoscopic units use a high pressure air jet (HPAJ) to remove the water droplets on the endoscopes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the excessive noise exposure with the use of HPAJ in endoscopic preparation room and to investigate the risk to occupational health. Noise assessment was taken during 7 automatic endoscopic reprocessors (AERs) and combined with/without HPAJ use over an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA). Analytical procedures of the NIOSH and the ISO for noise-induced hearing loss were estimated to develop analytic models. The peak of the noise spectrum of combined HPAJ and 7 AERs was significantly higher than that of the 7 AERs alone (108.3 ± 1.36 versus 69.3 ± 3.93 dBA, P < 0.0001). The risk of hearing loss (HL > 2.5 dB) was 2.15% at 90 dBA, 11.6% at 95 dBA, and 51.3% at 100 dBA. The odds ratio was 49.1 (95% CI: 11.9 to 203.6). The noise generated by the HPAJ to work over TWA seriously affected the occupational health and safety of those working in an endoscopic preparation room. PMID:25710009

  19. Modeling a Transient Pressurization with Active Cooling Sizing Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guzik, Monica C.; Plachta, David W.; Elchert, Justin P.

    2011-01-01

    As interest in the area of in-space zero boil-off cryogenic propellant storage develops, the need to visualize and quantify cryogen behavior during ventless tank self-pressurization and subsequent cool-down with active thermal control has become apparent. During the course of a mission, such as the launch ascent phase, there are periods that power to the active cooling system will be unavailable. In addition, because it is not feasible to install vacuum jackets on large propellant tanks, as is typically done for in-space cryogenic applications for science payloads, instances like the launch ascent heating phase are important to study. Numerous efforts have been made to characterize cryogenic tank pressurization during ventless cryogen storage without active cooling, but few tools exist to model this behavior in a user-friendly environment for general use, and none exist that quantify the marginal active cooling system size needed for power down periods to manage tank pressure response once active cooling is resumed. This paper describes the Transient pressurization with Active Cooling Tool (TACT), which is based on a ventless three-lump homogeneous thermodynamic self-pressurization model1 coupled with an active cooling system estimator. TACT has been designed to estimate the pressurization of a heated but unvented cryogenic tank, assuming an unavailable power period followed by a given cryocooler heat removal rate. By receiving input data on the tank material and geometry, propellant initial conditions, and passive and transient heating rates, a pressurization and recovery profile can be found, which establishes the time needed to return to a designated pressure. This provides the ability to understand the effect that launch ascent and unpowered mission segments have on the size of an active cooling system. A sample of the trends found show that an active cooling system sized for twice the steady state heating rate would results in a reasonable time for tank

  20. High Blood Pressure and Related Factors Among Individuals at High Risk for HIV/Sexually Transmitted Infections.

    PubMed

    Nam, Soohyun; Whittemore, Robin; Jeon, Sangchoon; Davey-Rothwell, Melissa A; Latkin, Carl

    2016-06-01

    Data from a social network-based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention study with a total of 330 men and women at high risk for HIV/STIs were used to examine the relationships between substance use, depressive symptoms, general health, cardiovascular disease risk factors, sociodemographic characteristics, and systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP). Approximately 60% of the participants had prehypertension to stage 2 hypertension. In the base model, older patients (P<.0001), men (P=.003), and patients with poorer self-reported health (P=.029) were significantly associated with high SBP, whereas older age (P<.001) and higher body mass index (P<.001) were significantly associated with higher DBP. After adjusting for the base model, high frequency of alcohol drinking and high frequency of binge drinking remained significant for high SBP and DBP. These data suggest that future cardiovascular disease programs should target moderate alcohol consumption to improve blood pressure among individuals at high risk for HIV/STIs. PMID:26514661

  1. Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas explored using a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuell, Cameron M.; Corr, Cormac S.

    2016-02-01

    Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas have found applications in a variety of technology areas including fusion, neutral beam injection and material processing applications. To better understand these discharges, a global model is developed to predict the behaviour of electrons, ground-state atomic and molecular hydrogen, three positive ion species (H+, \\text{H}2+ , and \\text{H}3+ ), a single negative ion species (H-), and fourteen vibrationally excited states of molecular hydrogen ({{\\text{H}}2}≤ft(\\upsilon =1\\right. -14)). The model is validated by comparison with experimental results from a planar inductively coupled GEC reference cell and subsequently applied to the MAGPIE linear helicon reactor. The MAGPIE reactor is investigated for a range of pressures from 1 to 100 mTorr and powers up to 5 kW. With increasing power between 50 W and 5 kW at 10 mTorr the density of all charged species increases as well as the dissociative fraction while the electron temperature remains almost constant at around 3 eV. For gas pressures from 1-100 mTorr at an input power of 1 kW, the electron density remains almost constant, the electron temperature and dissociative fraction decreases, while \\text{H}3+ density increases in density and also dominates amongst ion species. Across these power and pressure scans, electronegativity remains approximately constant at around 2.5%. The power and pressure determines the dominant ion species in the plasma with \\text{H}3+ observed to dominate at high pressures and low powers whereas H+ tends to be dominant at low pressures and high powers. A sensitivity analysis is used to demonstrate how experimental parameters (power, pressure, reactor wall material, geometry etc) influence individual species’ density as well as the electron temperature. Physical reactor changes including the length, radius and wall recombination coefficient are found to have the largest influence on outputs obtained from the model.

  2. Ambulatory monitoring derived blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk factors in elderly hypertensive patients.

    PubMed

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Belényi, Boglárka; Incze, Alexandru

    2014-01-01

    Hypertension in the elderly is characterized by isolated systolic hypertension and high variability, but its clinical significance is not yet fully understood. The goal of this paper was to assess circadian blood pressure variability (BPV) in elderly hypertensives, and to determine its relationship to cardiovascular risk factors. To achieve this goal, a number of 75 inefficiently treated hypertensive patients were studied, 45 elderly, aged over 60 years, 30 middle-aged, younger than 60 years. After 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM), blood pressure (BP) values, pulse pressure (PP), morning surge were compared between the groups. BPV was calculated using average real variability (ARV). The relationships between BPV, pulse pressure, left ventricular mass index (LVMI), and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in both groups. As a result, it was found that left ventricular mass (p=0.01), PP, morning surge, 24-hour systolic ARV were significantly higher in the elderly group (p<0.05). In both groups, higher 24-hour BPV was associated with an increase in LVMI. In the elderly population 24-hour BPV was positively correlated to increased PP, total cholesterol and triglyceride levels (p<0.05). Moreover, it was concluded that ABPM-derived BP variability index could be an early predictive marker of end-organ damage in hypertension. Its reduction might be an important objective of hypertension management in elderly. PMID:25226958

  3. Sex-specific differences in cardiovascular risk factors and blood pressure control in hypertensive patients.

    PubMed

    Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Giampatzis, Vasilios; Baltatzi, Maria; Efthymiou, Elias; Psianou, Konstantia; Papastergiou, Natalia; Magkou, Dimitra; Bougatsa, Vagia; Savopoulos, Christos; Hatzitolios, Apostolos I

    2014-04-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular risk factors are frequently undertreated in women. However, it is unclear whether the prevalence of additional cardiovascular risk factors and the total cardiovascular risk differ between hypertensive men and women. There are also limited data regarding rates of blood pressure control in the two sexes outside the United States. The authors aimed to compare the cardiovascular risk profile between sexes. A total of 1810 hypertensive patients (40.4% men, age 56.5±13.5 years) attending the hypertension outpatient clinic of our department were studied. Men were more frequently smokers than women and were more heavy smokers than the latter. Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were lower and serum triglyceride levels were higher in men. On the other hand, abdominal obesity and chronic kidney disease were more prevalent in women. The estimated cardiovascular risk was higher in men than in women but the prevalence of established CVD did not differ between the sexes. The percentage of patients with controlled hypertension and the number of antihypertensive medications were similar in men and women. In conclusion, hypertensive men have more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile and greater estimated cardiovascular risk than women. However, the prevalence of established CVD does not differ between sexes. These findings further reinforce current guidelines that recommend that management of hypertension and of other cardiovascular risk factors should be as aggressive in women as in men in order to prevent cardiovascular events. PMID:24621371

  4. Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation: Post Trial Follow-Up of Randomized Groups

    PubMed Central

    Jafar, Tazeen H.; Jehan, Imtiaz; Liang, Feng; Barbier, Sylvaine; Islam, Muhammad; Bux, Rasool; Khan, Aamir Hameed; Nadkarni, Nivedita; Poulter, Neil; Chaturvedi, Nish; Ebrahim, Shah

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence on long term effectiveness of public health strategies for lowering blood pressure (BP) is scarce. In the Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation (COBRA) Trial, a 2 x 2 factorial, cluster randomized controlled trial, the combined home health education (HHE) and trained general practitioner (GP) intervention delivered over 2 years was more effective than no intervention (usual care) in lowering systolic BP among adults with hypertension in urban Pakistan. However, it was not clear whether the effect would be sustained after the cessation of intervention. We conducted 7 years follow-up inclusive of 5 years of post intervention period of COBRA trial participants to assess the effectiveness of the interventions on BP during extended follow-up. Methods A total of 1341 individuals 40 years or older with hypertension (systolic BP 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic BP 90 mm Hg or greater, or already receiving treatment) were followed by trained research staff masked to randomization status. BP was measured thrice with a calibrated automated device (Omron HEM-737 IntelliSense) in the sitting position after 5 minutes of rest. BP measurements were repeated after two weeks. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to analyze the primary outcome of change in systolic BP from baseline to 7- year follow-up. The multivariable model was adjusted for clustering, age at baseline, sex, baseline systolic and diastolic BP, and presence of diabetes. Findings After 7 years of follow-up, systolic BP levels among those randomised to combined HHE plus trained GP intervention were significantly lower (2.1 [4.1–0.1] mm Hg) compared to those randomised to usual care, (P = 0.04). Participants receiving the combined intervention compared to usual care had a greater reduction in LDL-cholesterol (2.7 [4.8 to 0.6] mg/dl. Conclusions The benefit in systolic BP reduction observed in the original cohort assigned to the combined intervention was attenuated but still

  5. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  6. Lower blood pressure goals in high-risk cardiovascular patients: are they defensible?

    PubMed

    Hopkins, Keith A; Bakris, George L

    2010-08-01

    This review highlights the paucity of data that support actively decreasing blood pressures (BP) to a level of less than 130/80 mm Hg. Although the data support a lower cardiovascular (CV) event rate with this lower level of pressure in high-risk CV people, early aggressive intervention to prevent levels from going above this mark prevent development of worsening atherosclerosis. Although no trial will ever prove this concept of prevention, common sense and multiple animal experiments support it. Most patients should have their systolic BP reduced to levels well below 140 mm Hg approaching 130 mm Hg, not 140 mm Hg. PMID:20621249

  7. Survivorship models for estimating the risk of decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Kumar, K V; Powell, M R

    1994-07-01

    Several approaches have been used for modeling the incidence of decompression sickness (DCS) such as Hill's dose-response and logistic regression. Most of these methods do not include the time-to-onset information in the model. Survival analysis (failure time analysis) is appropriate when the time to onset of an event is of interest. The applicability of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS is illustrated by using data obtained from hypobaric chamber exposures simulating extravehicular activities (n = 426). Univariate analysis of incidence-free survival proportions were obtained for Doppler-detectable circulating microbubbles (CMB), symptoms of DCS and test aborts. A log-linear failure time regression model with 360-min half-time tissue ratio (TR) as covariate was constructed, and estimated probabilities for various TR values were calculated. Further regression analysis by including CMB status in this model showed significant improvement (p < 0.05) in the estimation of DCS over the previous model. Since DCS is dependent on the exposure pressure as well as the duration of exposure, we recommend the use of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS. PMID:7945136

  8. High-pressure intrapleural chemotherapy: feasibility in the pig model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The usual treatments for pleural malignancies are mostly palliative. In contrast, peritoneal malignancies are often treated with a curative intent by cytoreductive surgery and intraperitoneal chemotherapy. As pressure has been shown to increase antitumor efficacy, we applied the concept of high-pressure intracavitary chemotherapy to the pleural space in a swine model. Methods Cisplatin and gemcitabine were selected because of their antineoplasic efficacy in vitro in a wide spectrum of cancer cell lines. The pleural cavity of 21 pigs was filled with saline solution; haemodynamic and respiratory parameters were monitored. The pressure was increased to 15-25 cm H2O. This treatment was associated with pneumonectomy in 6 pigs. Five pigs were treated with chemotherapy under pressure. Results The combination of gemcitabine (100 mg/l) and cisplatin (30 mg/l) was highly cytotoxic in vitro. The maximum tolerated pressure was 20 cm H20, due to haemodynamic failure. Pneumonectomy was not tolerated, either before or after pleural infusion. Five pigs survived intrapleural chemotherapy associating gemcitabine and cisplatin with 20 cm H2O pressure for 60 min. Conclusions High-pressure intrapleural chemotherapy is feasible in pigs. Further experiments will establish the pharmacokinetics and determine whether the benefit already shown in the peritoneum is also obtained in the pleura. PMID:22309737

  9. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    PubMed

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis. PMID:19732396

  10. Landslide risk mapping and modeling in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, W.; Hong, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Under circumstances of global climate change, tectonic stress and human effect, landslides are among the most frequent and severely widespread natural hazards on Earth, as demonstrated in the World Atlas of Natural Hazards (McGuire et al., 2004). Every year, landslide activities cause serious economic loss as well as casualties (Róbert et al., 2005). How landslides can be monitored and predicted is an urgent research topic of the international landslide research community. Particularly, there is a lack of high quality and updated landslide risk maps and guidelines that can be employed to better mitigate and prevent landslide disasters in many emerging regions, including China (Hong, 2007). Since the 1950s, landslide events have been recorded in the statistical yearbooks, newspapers, and monographs in China. As disasters have been increasingly concerned by the government and the public, information about landslide events is becoming available from online news reports (Liu et al., 2012).This study presents multi-scale landslide risk mapping and modeling in China. At the national scale, based on historical data and practical experiences, we carry out landslide susceptibility and risk mapping by adopting a statistical approach and pattern recognition methods to construct empirical models. Over the identified landslide hot-spot areas, we further evaluate the slope-stability for each individual site (Sidle and Hirotaka, 2006), with the ultimate goal to set up a space-time multi-scale coupling system of Landslide risk mapping and modeling for landslide hazard monitoring and early warning.

  11. Quantitative risk modelling for new pharmaceutical compounds.

    PubMed

    Tang, Zhengru; Taylor, Mark J; Lisboa, Paulo; Dyas, Mark

    2005-11-15

    The process of discovering and developing new drugs is long, costly and risk-laden. Faced with a wealth of newly discovered compounds, industrial scientists need to target resources carefully to discern the key attributes of a drug candidate and to make informed decisions. Here, we describe a quantitative approach to modelling the risk associated with drug development as a tool for scenario analysis concerning the probability of success of a compound as a potential pharmaceutical agent. We bring together the three strands of manufacture, clinical effectiveness and financial returns. This approach involves the application of a Bayesian Network. A simulation model is demonstrated with an implementation in MS Excel using the modelling engine Crystal Ball. PMID:16257374

  12. Tyre pressure monitoring using a dynamical model-based estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reina, Giulio; Gentile, Angelo; Messina, Arcangelo

    2015-04-01

    In the last few years, various control systems have been investigated in the automotive field with the aim of increasing the level of safety and stability, avoid roll-over, and customise handling characteristics. One critical issue connected with their integration is the lack of state and parameter information. As an example, vehicle handling depends to a large extent on tyre inflation pressure. When inflation pressure drops, handling and comfort performance generally deteriorate. In addition, it results in an increase in fuel consumption and in a decrease in lifetime. Therefore, it is important to keep tyres within the normal inflation pressure range. This paper introduces a model-based approach to estimate online tyre inflation pressure. First, basic vertical dynamic modelling of the vehicle is discussed. Then, a parameter estimation framework for dynamic analysis is presented. Several important vehicle parameters including tyre inflation pressure can be estimated using the estimated states. This method aims to work during normal driving using information from standard sensors only. On the one hand, the driver is informed about the inflation pressure and he is warned for sudden changes. On the other hand, accurate estimation of the vehicle states is available as possible input to onboard control systems.

  13. Air pollution, blood pressure, and the risk of hypertensive complications during pregnancy: the generation R study.

    PubMed

    van den Hooven, Edith H; de Kluizenaar, Yvonne; Pierik, Frank H; Hofman, Albert; van Ratingen, Sjoerd W; Zandveld, Peter Y J; Mackenbach, Johan P; Steegers, Eric A P; Miedema, Henk M E; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

    2011-03-01

    Exposure to air pollution is associated with elevated blood pressure and cardiovascular disease. We assessed the associations of exposure to particulate matter (PM(10)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) levels with blood pressure measured in each trimester of pregnancy and the risks of pregnancy-induced hypertension and preeclampsia in 7006 women participating in a prospective cohort study in the Netherlands. Information on gestational hypertensive disorders was obtained from medical records. PM(10) exposure was not associated with first trimester systolic and diastolic blood pressure, but a 10-μg/m(3) increase in PM(10) levels was associated with a 1.11-mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43 to 1.79) and 2.11-mm Hg (95% CI 1.34 to 2.89) increase in systolic blood pressure in the second and third trimester, respectively. Longitudinal analyses showed that elevated PM(10) exposure levels were associated with a steeper increase in systolic blood pressure throughout pregnancy (P<0.01), but not with diastolic blood pressure patterns. Elevated NO(2) exposure was associated with higher systolic blood pressure levels in the first, second, and third trimester (P<0.05), and with a more gradual increase when analyzed longitudinally (P<0.01). PM(10) exposure, but not NO(2) exposure, was associated with an increased risk of pregnancy-induced hypertension (odds ratio 1.72 [95% CI 1.12 to 2.63] per 10-μg/m(3) increase). In conclusion, our results suggest that air pollution may affect maternal cardiovascular health during pregnancy. The effects might be small but relevant on a population level. PMID:21220700

  14. Design and modeling of a silicon resonant pressure sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Zheng; Chen, Deyong; Xia, Shanhong

    2001-04-01

    Modelling of a silicon resonator as a pressure sensor is presented. The resonator is electrothermally excited and the resonance frequency shift is detected by a piezoresistive thin film detector. Computer simulation using commercial MEMS software tool IntelliSuiteTM is compared with analytical model. Various design aspects, such as the pressure sensitivity, electrothermal heating of vibrating beam, influence of detection current and damping effect are investigated. Silicon resonator sensor have been fabricated and measured. The characteristics predicted by computer simulation has been confirmed by experimental results.

  15. Development of relative risk model for regional groundwater risk assessment: a case study in the lower Liaohe River Plain, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

  16. Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

  17. Novel methods to evaluate fracture risk models

    PubMed Central

    Donaldson, M.G.; Cawthon, P. M.; Schousboe, J.T.; Ensrud, K.E.; Lui, L.Y.; Cauley, J.A.; Hillier, T.A.; Taylor, B.C.; Hochberg, M.C.; Bauer, D.C.; Cummings, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Fracture prediction models help identify individuals at high risk who may benefit from treatment. Area Under the Curve (AUC) is used to compare prediction models. However, the AUC has limitations and may miss important differences between models. Novel reclassification methods quantify how accurately models classify patients who benefit from treatment and the proportion of patients above/below treatment thresholds. We applied two reclassification methods, using the NOF treatment thresholds, to compare two risk models: femoral neck BMD and age (“simple model”) and FRAX (”FRAX model”). The Pepe method classifies based on case/non-case status and examines the proportion of each above and below thresholds. The Cook method examines fracture rates above and below thresholds. We applied these to the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. There were 6036 (1037 fractures) and 6232 (389 fractures) participants with complete data for major osteoporotic and hip fracture respectively. Both models for major osteoporotic fracture (0.68 vs. 0.69) and hip fracture (0.75 vs. 0.76) had similar AUCs. In contrast, using reclassification methods, each model classified a substantial number of women differently. Using the Pepe method, the FRAX model (vs. simple model), missed treating 70 (7%) cases of major osteoporotic fracture but avoided treating 285 (6%) non-cases. For hip fracture, the FRAX model missed treating 31 (8%) cases but avoided treating 1026 (18%) non-cases. The Cook method (both models, both fracture outcomes) had similar fracture rates above/below the treatment thresholds. Compared with the AUC, new methods provide more detailed information about how models classify patients. PMID:21351143

  18. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  19. The Pressure Gradient Force in Sigma-Co Ocean Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slørdal, Leiv Håvard

    1997-05-01

    The error in computing the horizontal pressure gradient force near steep topography is investigated in a primitive equation, -co-ordinate, numerical ocean model (Blumberg and Mellor, in Three -Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models, Vol. 4, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C., 1987, pp. 1-16). By performing simple test experiments where the density field is allowed to vary in both the vertical and the horizontal direction, severe errors are detected in the areas where the isopycnals hit the sloping bottom. An alternative method of computing the pressure force (Stelling and van Kester, Int. j. numer. methods fluids, 18, 915-935 (1994) is adopted, resulting in substantial reduction of the errors. However, a systematic underestimation of the calculated quantities is revealed, leading to erroneous depth-mean values of the pressure force. In this study a modification of the Stelling and van Kester method is proposed which seems to improve the overall performance of the method.

  20. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  1. Postural effects on intracranial pressure: modeling and clinical evaluation.

    PubMed

    Qvarlander, Sara; Sundström, Nina; Malm, Jan; Eklund, Anders

    2013-11-01

    The physiological effect of posture on intracranial pressure (ICP) is not well described. This study defined and evaluated three mathematical models describing the postural effects on ICP, designed to predict ICP at different head-up tilt angles from the supine ICP value. Model I was based on a hydrostatic indifference point for the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) system, i.e., the existence of a point in the system where pressure is independent of body position. Models II and III were based on Davson's equation for CSF absorption, which relates ICP to venous pressure, and postulated that gravitational effects within the venous system are transferred to the CSF system. Model II assumed a fully communicating venous system, and model III assumed that collapse of the jugular veins at higher tilt angles creates two separate hydrostatic compartments. Evaluation of the models was based on ICP measurements at seven tilt angles (0-71°) in 27 normal pressure hydrocephalus patients. ICP decreased with tilt angle (ANOVA: P < 0.01). The reduction was well predicted by model III (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P = 0.65), which showed excellent fit against measured ICP. Neither model I nor II adequately described the reduction in ICP (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P < 0.01). Postural changes in ICP could not be predicted based on the currently accepted theory of a hydrostatic indifference point for the CSF system, but a new model combining Davson's equation for CSF absorption and hydrostatic gradients in a collapsible venous system performed well and can be useful in future research on gravity and CSF physiology. PMID:24052030

  2. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Model for Western Balkans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stejskal, Vladimir; Lorenzo, Francisco; Pousse, Guillaume; Radovanovic, Slavica; Pekevski, Lazo; Dojcinovski, Dragi; Lokin, Petar; Petronijevic, Mira; Sipka, Vesna

    2010-05-01

    A probabilistic seismic risk model for insurance and reinsurance purposes is presented for an area of Western Balkans, covering former Yugoslavia and Albania. This territory experienced many severe earthquakes during past centuries producing significant damage to many population centres in the region. The highest hazard is related to external Dinarides, namely to the collision zone of the Adriatic plate. The model is based on a unified catalogue for the region and a seismic source model consisting of more than 30 zones covering all the three main structural units - Southern Alps, Dinarides and the south-western margin of the Pannonian Basin. A probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to generate the hazard component of the model. Unique set of damage functions based on both loss experience and engineering assessments is used to convert the modelled ground motion severity into the monetary loss.

  3. Yoga lifestyle intervention reduces blood pressure in HIV-infected adults with cardiovascular disease risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Cade, Todd; Reeds, Dominic N.; Mondy, Kristin E.; Overton, Turner; Grassino, Joseph; Tucker, Shawn; Bopp, Coco; Laciny, Erin; Hubert, Sara; Lassa-Claxton, Sherry; Yarasheski, Kevin E.

    2009-01-01

    People living with human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV) are at increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Safe and effective interventions for lowering CVD risk in HIV are high priorities. Objective We conducted a prospective, randomized, controlled study to evaluate whether a yoga lifestyle intervention improves CVD risk factors, virologic or immunologic status, or quality of life in HIV-infected adults more than in a matched control group. Methods Sixty HIV-infected adults with mild-moderate CVD risk were assigned to 20 wks of supervised yoga practice or standard of care treatment. Baseline and week 20 measures were; 2hr-oral glucose tolerance test with insulin monitoring, body composition, fasting serum lipid/lipoprotein profile, resting blood pressures, CD4+ T-cell number and plasma HIV RNA, and the Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 health-related quality of life inventory. Results Resting systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced more (p=0.04) in the yoga group (−5±2 and −3±1 mmHg) than in the standard of care group (+1±2 and +2±2 mmHg), despite no greater reduction in body weight, fat mass, proatherogenic lipids, or improvements in glucose tolerance or overall quality of life after yoga. Immune and virologic status was not adversely affected. Conclusion Among traditional lifestyle modifications, yoga is a low cost, simple to administer, non-pharmacological, popular behavioral intervention that can lower blood pressure in pre-hypertensive HIV-infected adults with mild-moderate CVD risk factors. PMID:20059570

  4. A Boussinesq-scaled, pressure-Poisson water wave model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donahue, Aaron S.; Zhang, Yao; Kennedy, Andrew B.; Westerink, Joannes J.; Panda, Nishant; Dawson, Clint

    2015-02-01

    Through the use of Boussinesq scaling we develop and test a model for resolving non-hydrostatic pressure profiles in nonlinear wave systems over varying bathymetry. A Green-Nagdhi type polynomial expansion is used to resolve the pressure profile along the vertical axis, this is then inserted into the pressure-Poisson equation, retaining terms up to a prescribed order and solved using a weighted residual approach. The model shows rapid convergence properties with increasing order of polynomial expansion which can be greatly improved through the application of asymptotic rearrangement. Models of Boussinesq scaling of the fully nonlinear O (μ2) and weakly nonlinear O (μN) are presented, the analytical and numerical properties of O (μ2) and O (μ4) models are discussed. Optimal basis functions in the Green-Nagdhi expansion are determined through manipulation of the free-parameters which arise due to the Boussinesq scaling. The optimal O (μ2) model has dispersion accuracy equivalent to a Padé [2,2] approximation with one extra free-parameter. The optimal O (μ4) model obtains dispersion accuracy equivalent to a Padé [4,4] approximation with two free-parameters which can be used to optimize shoaling or nonlinear properties. In comparison to experimental results the O (μ4) model shows excellent agreement to experimental data.

  5. Local plantar pressure relief in therapeutic footwear: design guidelines from finite element models.

    PubMed

    Erdemir, Ahmet; Saucerman, Jeffrey J; Lemmon, David; Loppnow, Bryan; Turso, Brie; Ulbrecht, Jan S; Cavanagh, Peter Re

    2005-09-01

    A major goal of therapeutic footwear in patients with pain or those at risk for skin injury is to relieve focal loading under prominent metatarsal heads. One frequent approach is to place plugs of compliant material into the midsole of the shoe. This study investigated 36 plug designs, a combination of three materials, six geometries, and two placements using a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model. Realistic loading conditions were obtained from plantar pressures (PP) recorded during walking in five subjects who wore control midsoles manufactured using Microcell Puff. Measured peak pressures underneath the second metatarsal head were similar to the results of the control model. PP obtained from simulations with the plugs built into a firm midsole were compared to the simulation results of the control midsole. Large plugs (e.g. 40 mm width), made out of Microcell Puff Lite or Plastazote Medium, placed at peak pressure sites, resulted in highest reductions in peak pressures (18-28%). Smaller plugs benefited from tapering when placed at high pressure areas. Case studies were completed on a healthy male subject and a diabetic female patient to address the efficacy of a plug design favored by our simulations (pressure based placement, 40 x 20 mm, Plastazote Medium). Successful reductions of second metatarsal head pressures were observed with a mediolateral load redistribution that was not represented by our model. 2D computer simulations allowed systematic investigation of plug properties without the need for high volume experimentation on human subjects and established basic guidelines for plug selection. In particular, plugs that are placed based on plantar pressure measurements were proven to be more effective when compared to those positioned according to the projection of the bony landmark on the foot-shoe plantar contact area. PMID:16023466

  6. Use of a Poroelastic Model to Predict Intramuscular Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, D. A.; Odegard, G. M.; Kaufman, K. R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurement of individual muscle tension in a clinical setting has yet to be achieved. Previous investigators have suggested that the tension in skeletal muscle, comprised of approximately 70% fluid, could be determined using interstitial muscle fluid pressure (IMP). A computational model is needed to aid in understanding IMP distribution in muscles of varying geometry and contractile states without exhaustive testing. The first aim of this study was to determine a set of transversely isotropic material properties (i.e., permeability, relaxed modulus, and drained Poisson’s ratio) for excised skeletal muscle using inverse finite element analysis with a poroelastic constitutive formulation on tension data from either longitudinal or transverse uniaxial load-relaxation tests of skeletal muscle tissue. The second aim was to compare pore pressure estimated from a model to experimental pressure measurements to assess its ability to accurately predict IMP. Results of this study indicated that skeletal muscle was transversely isotropic under load-relaxation as demonstrated by significant differences in the drained Poisson’s ratio. It was also noted that the drained Poisson’s ratios under both longitudinal and transverse loading were negative in these tests of excised muscle tissue. Pore pressure calculated with this model provided a good prediction of the development of IMP. These results point to the benefit of using a poroelastic model of skeletal muscle to predict IMP. PMID:25541627

  7. Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.

    2010-01-01

    This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

  8. Technology for pressure-instrumented thin airfoil models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wigley, David A.

    1988-01-01

    A novel method of airfoil model construction was developed. This Laminated Sheet technique uses 0.8 mm thick sheets of A286 containing a network of pre-formed channels which are vacuum brazed together to form the airfoil. A 6.25 percent model of the X29A canard, which has a 5 percent thick section, was built using this technique. The model contained a total of 96 pressure orifices, 56 in three chordwise rows on the upper surface and 37 in three similar rows on the lower surface. It was tested in the NASA Langley 0.3 m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Unique aerodynamic data was obtained over the full range of temperature and pressure. Part of the data was at transonic Mach numbers and flight Reynolds number. A larger two dimensional model of the NACA 64a-105 airfoil section was also fabricated. Scale up presented some problems, but a testable airfoil was fabricated.

  9. Validated Analytical Model of a Pressure Compensation Drip Irrigation Emitter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshery, Pulkit; Wang, Ruo-Qian; Taylor, Katherine; Tran, Davis; Winter, Amos

    2015-11-01

    This work is focused on analytically characterizing the behavior of pressure-compensating drip emitters in order to design low-cost, low-power irrigation solutions appropriate for off-grid communities in developing countries. There are 2.5 billion small acreage farmers worldwide who rely solely on their land for sustenance. Drip, compared to flood, irrigation leads to up to 70% reduction in water consumption while increasing yields by 90% - important in countries like India which are quickly running out of water. To design a low-power drip system, there is a need to decrease the pumping pressure requirement at the emitters, as pumping power is the product of pressure and flow rate. To efficiently design such an emitter, the relationship between the fluid-structure interactions that occur in an emitter need to be understood. In this study, a 2D analytical model that captures the behavior of a common drip emitter was developed and validated through experiments. The effects of independently changing the channel depth, channel width, channel length and land height on the performance were studied. The model and the key parametric insights presented have the potential to be optimized in order to guide the design of low-pressure, clog-resistant, pressure-compensating emitters.

  10. A Raster Based Approach To Solar Pressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Theodore

    2014-01-01

    The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. Which components are being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun.To determine solar pressure in the presence overlapping components, a 3D model can be used to determine which components are illuminated. A view (image) of the model as seen from the Sun shows the only contributors to solar pressure. This image can be decomposed into pixels, each of which can be treated as a non-overlapping flat plate as far as solar pressure calculations are concerned. The sums of the pressures and moments on these plates approximate the solar pressure and moments on the entire vehicle.The image rasterization technique can also be used to compute other spacecraft attributes that are dependent on attitude and geometry, including solar array power generation capability and free molecular flow drag.

  11. Global model for high pressure electronegative radio-frequency discharges

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Y.T.; Lieberman, M.A.; Lichtenberg, A.J.; Bose, F.; Baltes, H.; Patrick, R.

    1997-01-01

    We develop a global model for high pressure (0.1{endash}1 Torr) electronegative rf discharges and apply it to model a capacitively driven plasma etcher. The molecular gases considered consist of either pure chlorine species or a mixture of chlorine and helium species. The charged and neutral heavy particle densities together with the electron density and electron temperature are calculated by using the equations of particle balance and power balance for the input discharge parameters rf power or rf current, inlet pressure, gas flow rates, reactor diameter, and gap spacing. The power is deposited in the electrons via ohmic heating and in those ions accelerated across the dc sheath potential. The voltage across the sheath is calculated self-consistently with the densities and the electron temperature by using a collisional Child law sheath model. Analytic scaling laws for the dependence of charged and neutral particle densities, electron temperature, rf voltage and current, sheath width, and plasma impedance on pressure and absorbed rf power are presented and used to explain the numerical results obtained from the global model. The model results are compared to recent experimental measurements in a chlorine discharge over a range of absorbed power P{sub abs}=20{endash}180W at an inlet pressure p{sub in}=0.4 Torr and a range of pressure 0.1{endash}1.6 Torr with a fixed input power of 100 W. We obtain reasonable agreement for P{sub abs}{lt}200W and for 0.2 Torr{lt}p{sub in}{lt}1Torr. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Vacuum Society.}

  12. Explicit Pore Pressure Material Model in Carbon-Cloth Phenolic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutierrez-Lemini, Danton; Ehle, Curt

    2003-01-01

    An explicit material model that uses predicted pressure in the pores of a carbon-cloth phenolic (CCP) composite has been developed. This model is intended to be used within a finite-element model to predict phenomena specific to CCP components of solid-fuel-rocket nozzles subjected to high operating temperatures and to mechanical stresses that can be great enough to cause structural failures. Phenomena that can be predicted with the help of this model include failures of specimens in restrained-thermal-growth (RTG) tests, pocketing erosion, and ply lifting

  13. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  14. Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. PMID:26133501

  15. Facial pressure zones of an oronasal interface for noninvasive ventilation: a computer model analysis* **

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Luana Souto; Talaia, Pedro; Drummond, Marta; Natal-Jorge, Renato

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the effects of an oronasal interface (OI) for noninvasive ventilation, using a three-dimensional (3D) computational model with the ability to simulate and evaluate the main pressure zones (PZs) of the OI on the human face. METHODS: We used a 3D digital model of the human face, based on a pre-established geometric model. The model simulated soft tissues, skull, and nasal cartilage. The geometric model was obtained by 3D laser scanning and post-processed for use in the model created, with the objective of separating the cushion from the frame. A computer simulation was performed to determine the pressure required in order to create the facial PZs. We obtained descriptive graphical images of the PZs and their intensity. RESULTS: For the graphical analyses of each face-OI model pair and their respective evaluations, we ran 21 simulations. The computer model identified several high-impact PZs in the nasal bridge and paranasal regions. The variation in soft tissue depth had a direct impact on the amount of pressure applied (438-724 cmH2O). CONCLUSIONS: The computer simulation results indicate that, in patients submitted to noninvasive ventilation with an OI, the probability of skin lesion is higher in the nasal bridge and paranasal regions. This methodology could increase the applicability of biomechanical research on noninvasive ventilation interfaces, providing the information needed in order to choose the interface that best minimizes the risk of skin lesion. PMID:25610506

  16. Risk assessment of physiological effects of atmospheric composition and pressure in Constellation vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheuring, Richard; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

    Introduction: To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB=414mmHg) and mildly hypoxic ( ppO2=132mmHg, 32% O2-68%N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness) could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: We performed a literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure. The results of nine studies were evaluated. Results: There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar oxygen (O2) partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response is. Between 7% and 25% of adults may experience mild AMS near 2000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6500 ft, acute PAO2=75mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528mmHg (3048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2=85mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. Conclusions: We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77mmHg at 4876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2=77mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: (1) develop procedures to increase PB as needed in the

  17. Functional Risk Modeling for Lunar Surface Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomson, Fraser; Mathias, Donovan; Go, Susie; Nejad, Hamed

    2010-01-01

    We introduce an approach to risk modeling that we call functional modeling , which we have developed to estimate the capabilities of a lunar base. The functional model tracks the availability of functions provided by systems, in addition to the operational state of those systems constituent strings. By tracking functions, we are able to identify cases where identical functions are provided by elements (rovers, habitats, etc.) that are connected together on the lunar surface. We credit functional diversity in those cases, and in doing so compute more realistic estimates of operational mode availabilities. The functional modeling approach yields more realistic estimates of the availability of the various operational modes provided to astronauts by the ensemble of surface elements included in a lunar base architecture. By tracking functional availability the effects of diverse backup, which often exists when two or more independent elements are connected together, is properly accounted for.

  18. A Simplified Model for Detonation Based Pressure-Gain Combustors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paxson, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    A time-dependent model is presented which simulates the essential physics of a detonative or otherwise constant volume, pressure-gain combustor for gas turbine applications. The model utilizes simple, global thermodynamic relations to determine an assumed instantaneous and uniform post-combustion state in one of many envisioned tubes comprising the device. A simple, second order, non-upwinding computational fluid dynamic algorithm is then used to compute the (continuous) flowfield properties during the blowdown and refill stages of the periodic cycle which each tube undergoes. The exhausted flow is averaged to provide mixed total pressure and enthalpy which may be used as a cycle performance metric for benefits analysis. The simplicity of the model allows for nearly instantaneous results when implemented on a personal computer. The results compare favorably with higher resolution numerical codes which are more difficult to configure, and more time consuming to operate.

  19. Modelling of microwave sustained capillary plasma columns at atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pencheva, M.; Petrova, Ts; Benova, E.; Zhelyazkov, I.

    2006-07-01

    In this work we present a model of argon microwave sustained discharge at high pressure (1 atm), which includes two self-consistently linked parts - electrodynamic and kinetic ones. The model is based on a steady-state Boltzmann equation in an effective field approximation coupled with a collisional-radiative model for high-pressure argon discharge numerically solved together with Maxwell's equation for an azimuthally symmetric TM surface wave and wave energy balance equation. It is applied for the purpose of theoretical description of the discharge in a stationary state. The phase diagram, the electron energy distribution function as well as the dependences of the electron and heavy particles densities and the mean input power per electron on the electron number density and wave number are presented.

  20. Numerical Modeling of Pressurization of a Propellant Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd

    1999-01-01

    An unsteady finite volume procedure has been developed to predict the history o pressure, temperature and mass flow rate of the pressurant and propellant during the expulsion of the propellant from a tan. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy conservation equations are solved at the ullage space. The model accounts for the change in the ullage volume due to expulsion of the propellant. It also accounts for the heat transfer from the tank wall and propellant to the ullage gas. The procedure was incorporated in the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The results of several test cases were then compared with a published correlation of pressurant requirements for a given displacement of propellant. The agreement between the predictions and the correlation was found to be satisfactory.

  1. Numerical Modeling of Pressurization of a Propellant Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd

    1998-01-01

    An unsteady finite volume procedure has been developed to predict the history of pressure, temperature and mass flow rate of the pressurant and propellant during the expulsion of the propellant from a tank. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy conservation equations are solved at the ullage space. The model accounts for the change in the ullage volume due to expulsion of the propellant. It also accounts for the heat transfer from the tank wall and propellant to the ullage gas. The procedure was incorporated in the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The results of several test cases were then compared with a published correlation of pressurant requirements for a given displacement of propellant. The agreement between the predictions and the correlation was found to be satisfactory.

  2. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  3. A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk

    PubMed Central

    Dicko, Ahmadou H.; Percoma, Lassane; Sow, Adama; Adam, Yahaya; Mahama, Charles; Sidibé, Issa; Dayo, Guiguigbaza-Kossigan; Thévenon, Sophie; Fonta, William; Sanfo, Safietou; Djiteye, Aligui; Salou, Ernest; Djohan, Vincent; Cecchi, Giuliano; Bouyer, Jérémy

    2015-01-01

    Background African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a “one layer-one model” approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). Conclusions/Significance The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate

  4. Modeling situation awareness and crash risk.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Donald L; Strayer, David L

    2014-01-01

    In this article we develop a model of the relationship between crash risk and a driver's situation awareness. We consider a driver's situation awareness to reflect the dynamic mental model of the driving environment and to be dependent upon several psychological processes including Scanning the driving environment, Predicting and anticipating hazards, Identifying potential hazards in the driving scene as they occur, Deciding on an action, and Executing an appropriate Response (SPIDER). Together, SPIDER is important for establishing and maintaining good situation awareness of the driving environment and good situation awareness is important for coordinating and scheduling the SPIDER-relevant processes necessary for safe driving. An Order-of-Processing (OP) model makes explicit the SPIDER-relevant processes and how they predict the likelihood of a crash when the driver is or is not distracted by a secondary task. For example, the OP model shows how a small decrease in the likelihood of any particular SPIDER activity being completed successfully (because of a concurrent secondary task performance) would lead to a large increase in the relative risk of a crash. PMID:24776225

  5. Modeling Situation Awareness and Crash Risk

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Donald L.; Strayer, David. L.

    2014-01-01

    In this article we develop a model of the relationship between crash risk and a driver’s situation awareness. We consider a driver’s situation awareness to reflect the dynamic mental model of the driving environment and to be dependent upon several psychological processes including Scanning the driving environment, Predicting and anticipating hazards, Identifying potential hazards in the driving scene as they occur, Deciding on an action, and Executing an appropriate Response (SPIDER). Together, SPIDER is important for establishing and maintaining good situation awareness of the driving environment and good situation awareness is important for coordinating and scheduling the SPIDER-relevant processes necessary for safe driving. An Order-of-Processing (OP) model makes explicit the SPIDER-relevant processes and how they predict the likelihood of a crash when the driver is or is not distracted by a secondary task. For example, the OP model shows how a small decrease in the likelihood of any particular SPIDER activity being completed successfully (because of a concurrent secondary task performance) would lead to a large increase in the relative risk of a crash. PMID:24776225

  6. Modeling Flood Risk for South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Y.; Li, S.

    2014-12-01

    Catastrophic flood events have caused significant losses for South Korea each year. It is very important to generate high resolution flood return period map for the government and insurance company to evaluate the flood risk. This research was initiated to achieve this goal. A 2000 year spatial distributed stochastical rainfall was generated by analyzing the historical rainfall of South Korea using principle component analysis. A rainfall-runoff model and a routing model were calibrated by driving the model with historical forcing and calibrated against gauge observations. The calibrated model was used to couple with the stochastical forcing to generate 2000 year discharge and runoff. The flood maps with different return periods were generated by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. The results of this research showed a reasonable flood map in South Korea, compared with the observed data. Further, this research could be used as an important reference for the government and insurance companies for risk management purpose.

  7. Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk: a mendelian randomisation study

    PubMed Central

    Vimaleswaran, Karani S; Cavadino, Alana; Berry, Diane J; Jorde, Rolf; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Lu, Chen; Alves, Alexessander Couto; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; Tikkanen, Emmi; Eriksson, Joel; Wong, Andrew; Mangino, Massimo; Jablonski, Kathleen A; Nolte, Ilja M; Houston, Denise K; Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh; van der Most, Peter J; Pasko, Dorota; Zgaga, Lina; Thiering, Elisabeth; Vitart, Veronique; Fraser, Ross M; Huffman, Jennifer E; de Boer, Rudolf A; Schöttker, Ben; Saum, Kai-Uwe; McCarthy, Mark I; Dupuis, Josée; Herzig, Karl-Heinz; Sebert, Sylvain; Pouta, Anneli; Laitinen, Jaana; Kleber, Marcus E; Navis, Gerjan; Lorentzon, Mattias; Jameson, Karen; Arden, Nigel; Cooper, Jackie A; Acharya, Jayshree; Hardy, Rebecca; Raitakari, Olli; Ripatti, Samuli; Billings, Liana K; Lahti, Jari; Osmond, Clive; Penninx, Brenda W; Rejnmark, Lars; Lohman, Kurt K; Paternoster, Lavinia; Stolk, Ronald P; Hernandez, Dena G; Byberg, Liisa; Hagström, Emil; Melhus, Håkan; Ingelsson, Erik; Mellström, Dan; Ljunggren, Östen; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; McLachlan, Stela; Theodoratou, Evropi; Tiesler, Carla M T; Jula, Antti; Navarro, Pau; Wright, Alan F; Polasek, Ozren; Hayward, Caroline; Wilson, James F; Rudan, Igor; Salomaa, Veikko; Heinrich, Joachim; Campbell, Harry; Price, Jacqueline F; Karlsson, Magnus; Lind, Lars; Michaëlsson, Karl; Bandinelli, Stefania; Frayling, Timothy M; Hartman, Catharina A; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Langdahl, Bente Lomholt; Eriksson, Johan G; Florez, Jose C; Spector, Tim D; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kuh, Diana; Humphries, Steve E; Cooper, Cyrus; Ohlsson, Claes; März, Winfried; de Borst, Martin H; Kumari, Meena; Kivimaki, Mika; Wang, Thomas J; Power, Chris; Brenner, Hermann; Grimnes, Guri; van der Harst, Pim; Snieder, Harold; Hingorani, Aroon D; Pilz, Stefan; Whittaker, John C; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Hyppönen, Elina

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. Methods In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108 173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. Findings In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49 363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, −0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI −0·20 to −0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97−0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, −0·02 mm Hg, −0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146 581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of −0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (−0·21 to −0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of −0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (−0·15 to −0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142 255), the synthesis score was associated

  8. The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas. PMID:22276576

  9. Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

    2007-01-01

    To reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, and to limit the risk of fire, a hypobaric (P(sub B) = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is being considered during lunar missions for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). If the vehicular ppO2 is acutely changed from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface outpost operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of hypoxia and altitude symptoms or AMS. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on the physiological concerns associated with hypobaric operations, AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. Results: Although space vehicles have operated in hypobaric conditions previously, they have not operated in a mildly hypoxic ppO2. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, such that the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (P(sub A)O2), the greater the likelihood of an AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m (xxx mmHg) altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute (P(sub A)O2) = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV

  10. Predictive power of the Braden scale for pressure sore risk in adult critical care patients: a comprehensive review.

    PubMed

    Cox, Jill

    2012-01-01

    Critical care is designed for managing the sickest patients within our healthcare system. Multiple factors associated with an increased likelihood of pressure ulcer development have been investigated in the critical care population. Nevertheless, there is a lack of consensus regarding which of these factors poses the greatest risk for pressure ulceration. While the Braden scale for pressure sore risk is the most commonly used tool for measuring pressure ulcer risk in the United States, research focusing on the cumulative Braden Scale score and subscale scores is lacking in the critical care population. This author conducted a literature review on pressure ulcer risk assessment in the critical care population, to include the predictive value of both the total score and the subscale scores. In this review, the subscales sensory perception, mobility, moisture, and friction/shear were found to be associated with an increased likelihood of pressure ulcer development; in contrast, the Activity and Nutrition subscales were not found to predict pressure ulcer development in this population. In order to more precisely quantify risk in the critically ill population, modification of the Braden scale or development of a critical care specific risk assessment tool may be indicated. PMID:22948495

  11. Risk-based inspection priorities for PWR high-pressure injection system components

    SciTech Connect

    Vo, T.V.; Simonen, F.A.; Phan, H.K. )

    1993-01-01

    Under U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsorship, Pacific Northwest Laboratory developed a risk-based method that can be used to establish in-service inspection priorities for nuclear power plant components. The overall goal of this effort was to develop technical bases for improvements of inspection plans and to provide recommendations for revisions of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Sec. XI. The developed method used results of probabilistic risk assessment in combination with the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) technique to establish in-service inspection priorities for systems and components. The Surry nuclear power station, unit 1 (Surry-1) was selected for study. Inspection priorities for several pressure boundary systems at Surry-1 were determined in the early phase of the project. To complete the study, the remaining safety systems, plus balance of plant, have been analyzed; one of these is the high-pressure injection (HPI) system. This paper presents the results of inspection priorities for the HPI system.

  12. Reducing stroke in women with risk factor management: blood pressure and cholesterol.

    PubMed

    Baghshomali, Sanam; Bushnell, Cheryl

    2014-09-01

    Stroke is a major cause of death and disability in adults worldwide. Prevention focused on modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension and hyperlipidemia, has shown them to be of significant importance in decreasing the risk of stroke. Multiple studies have brought to light the differences between men and women with regards to stroke and these risk factors. Women have a higher prevalence of stroke, mortality and disability and it has been shown that preventive and treatment options are not as comprehensive for women. Hence, it is of great necessity to evaluate and summarize the differences in gender and stroke risk factors in order to target disparities and optimize prevention, especially because women have a higher lifetime risk of stroke. The purpose of this review is to summarize sex differences in the prevalence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia. In addition, we will review the sex differences in stroke prevention effectiveness and adherence to blood pressure and cholesterol medications, and suggest future directions for research to reduce the burden of stroke in women. PMID:25335544

  13. Discordance between ambulatory versus clinic blood pressure according to global cardiovascular risk group

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Jinho; Park, Sung Ha; Kim, Ju Han; Ihm, Sang Hyun; Kim, Kwang-il; Kim, Woo Shik; Pyun, Wook Bum; Kim, Yu-Mi; Choi, Sung-il; Kim, Soon Kil

    2015-01-01

    Background/Aims: The detection of white coat hypertension (WCH), treated normalized hypertension, and masked hypertension (MH) is important to improve the effectiveness of hypertension management. However, whether global cardiovascular risk (GCR) profile has any effect on the discordance between ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and clinic blood pressure (CBP) is unknown. Methods: Data from 1,916 subjects, taken from the Korean Multicenter Registry for ABP monitoring, were grouped according to diagnostic and therapeutic thresholds for CBP and ABP (140/90 and 135/85 mmHg, respectively). GCR was assessed using European Society of Hypertension 2007 guidelines. Results: The mean subject age was 54.1 ± 14.9 years, and 48.9% of patients were female. The discordancy rate between ABP and CBP in the untreated and treated patients was 32.5% and 26.5%, respectively (p = 0.02). The prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension and MH was 14.4% and 16.0%, respectively. Discordance between ABP and CBP was lower in the very high added-risk group compared to the moderate added-risk group (odds ratio [OR], 0.649; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.487 to 0.863; p = 0.003). The prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension was also lower in the very high added-risk group (OR, 0.451; 95% CI, 0.311 to 0.655). Conclusions: Discordance between ABP and CBP was observed more frequently in untreated subjects than in treated subjects, and less frequently in the very high added-risk group, which was due mainly to the lower prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension. PMID:26354055

  14. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  15. Central hemodynamics in risk assessment strategies: additive value over and above brachial blood pressure.

    PubMed

    Yannoutsos, Alexandra; Rinaldi, Elisa R; Zhang, Yi; Protogerou, Athanassios D; Safar, Michel E; Blacher, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    Although the clinical relevance of brachial blood pressure (BP) measurement for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is nowadays widely accepted, this approach can nevertheless present several limitations. Pulse pressure (PP) amplification accounts for the notable increase in PP from central to peripheral arterial sites. Target organs are more greatly exposed to central hemodynamic changes than peripheral organs. The pathophysiological significance of local BP pulsatility, which has a role in the pathogenesis of target organ damage in both the macro- and the microcirculation, may therefore not be accurately captured by brachial BP as traditionally evaluated with cuff measurements. The predictive value of central systolic BP and PP over brachial BP for major clinical outcomes has been demonstrated in the general population, in elderly adults and in patients at high CV risk, irrespective of the invasive or non-invasive methods used to assess central BP. Aortic stiffness, timing and intensity of wave reflections, and cardiac performance appear as major factors influencing central PP. Great emphasis has been placed on the role of aortic stiffness, disturbed arterial wave reflections and their intercorrelation in the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV diseases as well as on their capacity to predict target organ damage and clinical events. Comorbidities and age-related changes, together with gender-related specificities of arterial and cardiac parameters, are known to affect the predictive ability of central hemodynamics on individual CV risk. PMID:25341861

  16. Identity development as a buffer of adolescent risk behaviors in the context of peer group pressure and control.

    PubMed

    Dumas, Tara M; Ellis, Wendy E; Wolfe, David A

    2012-08-01

    We examined identity development as a moderator of the relation between peer group pressure and control and adolescents' engagement in risk behaviors. Participants (n=1070; M(age)=15.45 years) completed a self-report measure of identity exploration, the degree to which they have explored a variety of self-relevant values, beliefs and goals, and identity commitment, the degree to which they have secured a personal identity. Participants further reported on their frequency of risk behaviors (substance use and general deviancy) and experienced peer group pressure and control. Results confirmed that identity commitment was a buffer of substance use and identity exploration was a buffer of general deviancy in more pressuring peer groups. In more controlling peer groups, teens with greater identity commitment engaged in less risk behavior than teens with low-identity commitment. Thus, identity development may be a suitable target to deter negative effects of peer pressure in high-risk adolescents. PMID:22265669

  17. Vibrational properties of model monatomic crystals under pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolf, George H.; Jeanloz, Raymond

    1985-12-01

    The roles of the attractive and repulsive forces in controlling the vibrational properties of monatomic crystals are systematically evaluated as a function of compression. Face-centered-cubic, hexagonal, and body-centered-cubic structures are considered with Lennard-Jones and Buckingham-type interatomic potentials. At zero pressure, the phonon frequencies and their mode-Grüneisen parameters deviate strongly from those of a reference state where the atoms interact solely through the corresponding purely repulsive potential. In detail, the degree of deviation depends on the structure, relative range of the repulsive and attractive forces, and the vibrational wavelength. With increasing pressure, the phonon frequencies asymptotically approach values of the purely repulsive reference state. Higher-order properties such as the mode-Grüneisen parameters and their logarithmic volume derivatives approach the repulsive limiting values more rapidly than do the frequencies, provided the associated modes do not become unstable. The close-packed lattices are dynamically stable at all positive pressures and display only a small variation among different orders of the frequency spectra Debye moments. However, this variation can be quite large for any structure at strains near that where the lattice is dynamically unstable. We find that the thermal Grüneisen parameter decreases with pressure, but the commonly assumed power-law relation of the thermal Grüneisen parameter with volume is violated. Average anharmonic vibrational properties are well described by a cell model in these monatomic systems at both low and high pressures. In addition, a strong correlation is found between the static-lattice compressional properties and the average vibrational properties; free-volume relations give good estimates of the high-temperature thermal properties, especially at high pressures.

  18. Post-extrasystolic Blood Pressure Potentiation as a Risk Predictor in Cardiac Patients

    PubMed Central

    Steger, Alexander; Sinnecker, Daniel; Barthel, Petra; Müller, Alexander; Gebhardt, Josef; Schmidt, Georg

    2016-01-01

    For more than 100 years physicians have observed that heartbeats following extrasystolic beats are characterised by augmented myocardial contractility. This phenomenon was termed post-extrasystolic potentiation (PESP). In the 1970s it was first noted that PESP measured at the blood pressure level is typically pronounced in heart failure patients. Only recently, it was shown that PESP measured non-invasively as post-extrasystolic blood pressure potentiation was a strong and independent predictor of death in survivors of myocardial infarction and in patients with chronic heart failure. A similar parameter (PESPAfib) can be also assessed in patients with atrial fibrillation. PESP and PESPAfib can be understood as non-invasive parameters that indicate myocardial dysfunction. They have the potential to improve risk stratification strategies for cardiac patients. PMID:27403290

  19. A hybrid likelihood algorithm for risk modelling.

    PubMed

    Kellerer, A M; Kreisheimer, M; Chmelevsky, D; Barclay, D

    1995-03-01

    The risk of radiation-induced cancer is assessed through the follow-up of large cohorts, such as atomic bomb survivors or underground miners who have been occupationally exposed to radon and its decay products. The models relate to the dose, age and time dependence of the excess tumour rates, and they contain parameters that are estimated in terms of maximum likelihood computations. The computations are performed with the software package EPI-CURE, which contains the two main options of person-by person regression or of Poisson regression with grouped data. The Poisson regression is most frequently employed, but there are certain models that require an excessive number of cells when grouped data are used. One example involves computations that account explicitly for the temporal distribution of continuous exposures, as they occur with underground miners. In past work such models had to be approximated, but it is shown here that they can be treated explicitly in a suitably reformulated person-by person computation of the likelihood. The algorithm uses the familiar partitioning of the log-likelihood into two terms, L1 and L0. The first term, L1, represents the contribution of the 'events' (tumours). It needs to be evaluated in the usual way, but constitutes no computational problem. The second term, L0, represents the event-free periods of observation. It is, in its usual form, unmanageable for large cohorts. However, it can be reduced to a simple form, in which the number of computational steps is independent of cohort size. The method requires less computing time and computer memory, but more importantly it leads to more stable numerical results by obviating the need for grouping the data. The algorithm may be most relevant to radiation risk modelling, but it can facilitate the modelling of failure-time data in general. PMID:7604154

  20. Highly physical penumbra solar radiation pressure modeling with atmospheric effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, Robert; Flury, Jakob; Bandikova, Tamara; Schilling, Manuel

    2015-10-01

    We present a new method for highly physical solar radiation pressure (SRP) modeling in Earth's penumbra. The fundamental geometry and approach mirrors past work, where the solar radiation field is modeled using a number of light rays, rather than treating the Sun as a single point source. However, we aim to clarify this approach, simplify its implementation, and model previously overlooked factors. The complex geometries involved in modeling penumbra solar radiation fields are described in a more intuitive and complete way to simplify implementation. Atmospheric effects are tabulated to significantly reduce computational cost. We present new, more efficient and accurate approaches to modeling atmospheric effects which allow us to consider the high spatial and temporal variability in lower atmospheric conditions. Modeled penumbra SRP accelerations for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites are compared to the sub-nm/s2 precision GRACE accelerometer data. Comparisons to accelerometer data and a traditional penumbra SRP model illustrate the improved accuracy which our methods provide. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the significance of various atmospheric parameters and modeled effects on penumbra SRP. While this model is more complex than a traditional penumbra SRP model, we demonstrate its utility and propose that a highly physical model which considers atmospheric effects should be the basis for any simplified approach to penumbra SRP modeling.

  1. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8-12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  2. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  3. Modeling plasma pressure anisotropy's effect on Saturn's global magnetospheric dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilley, M.; Harnett, E. M.; Winglee, R.

    2014-12-01

    A 3D multi-fluid, multi-scale plasma model with a complete treatment of plasma pressure anisotropy is employed to study global magnetospheric dynamics at Saturn. Cassini has observed anisotropies in the Saturnian magnetosphere, and analyses have showed correlations between anisotropy and plasma convection, ring current structure and intensity, confinement of plasma to the equatorial plane, as well as mass transport to the outer magnetosphere. The energization and transport of plasma within Saturn's magnetosphere is impactful upon the induced magnetic environments and atmospheres of potentially habitable satellites such as Enceladus and Titan. Recent efforts to couple pressure anisotropy with 3D multi-fluid plasma modeling have shown a significant move towards matching observations for simulations of Earth's magnetosphere. Our approach is used to study the effects of plasma pressure anisotropy on global processes of the Saturnian magnetosphere such as identifying the effect of pressure anisotropy on the centrifugal interchange instability. Previous simulation results have not completely replicated all aspects of the structure and formation of the interchange 'fingers' measured by Cassini at Saturn. The related effects of anisotropy, in addition to those mentioned above, include contribution to formation of MHD waves (e.g. reduction of Alfvén wave speed) and formation of firehose and mirror instabilities. An accurate understanding of processes such as the interchange instability is required if a complete picture of mass and energy transport at Saturn is to be realized. The results presented here will detail how the inclusion of a full treatment of pressure anisotropy for idealized solar wind conditions modifies the interchange structure and shape of the tail current sheet. Simulation results are compared to observations made by Cassini.

  4. Modelling of the pressure-velocity correlation in turbulence diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Song

    1993-05-01

    In the context of second-moment closure, the mechanism of turbulence diffusion consists of mainly two parts: a triple velocity correlation and a pressure-velocity correlation. The first correlation is measurable and can be analyzed theoretically through its transport equation. The second correlation cannot, however, be obtained directly from experiments and knowledge about it is comparatively limited. Most current computations of turbulent flows adopt diffusion models which neglect the effect of the pressure-velocity correlation in the diffusion process. The importance of this correlation effect is elucidated; the neglect of this effect constitutes some of the major defects in the application of the second-moment closures. Through the relation between the two correlations, established by Lumley (1978), we propose a new type of turbulence diffusion model which takes into account the pressure effect. Application of this new model in the computation of the turbulence shearless mixing layer and plane- and round-jet flows shows that the spreading rates of these flows can be captured satisfactorily.

  5. Models of pressure compaction and their application for wheat meal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skonecki, Stanisław; Kulig, Ryszard; Łysiak, Grzegorz

    2014-03-01

    Processes of compaction of granular materials were described using selected models. The analysis of their accuracy on the example of wheat was the basis for the discussion on their applicability to the processing of plant-origin materials. Parameters of the model equations for wheat, compressed at 10-18% moisture content were calculated, and the relations between these parameters and wheat moisture were determined. It was found that the analyzed models described the pressure compaction of granular plant material with different accuracy, and were highly dependent on moisture. The study also indicated that the model of Ferrero et al. fits the experimental results well. The parameters of this model reflected very well the physical phenomena which occur during compression.

  6. Galileo's relativity principle, the concept of pressure, and complex characteristics, for the six-equation, one-pressure model

    SciTech Connect

    Makowitz, H.

    1992-10-01

    We have studied various formulations of the concept of pressure, in the context of the usual Six-Equation Model of thermal-hydraulics. A different concept of pressure, than the usual one, has been used. This new pressure concept is Galilean Invariant, and results for the One-Pressure Model with the same complex characteristic roots as the Basic III-Posed Model,'' discussed in the literature for the cases we have investigated. We have also examined several Two-Pressure formulations and shown that two pressures are a necessary but not sufficient condition for obtaining a Well-Posed system. Several counter examples are presented. We have shown that the standard theory is not Galilean Invariant and suggested that the origin of III-Posedness is due to our closure relationships. We also question whether the current theory can satisfy conservation principles for mass, energy, and momentum.

  7. Modeling of formation of extended NH solids under high pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batyrev, Iskander G.

    Structure of N-H extended network under high pressure was modelled using the evolutionary algorithm program USPEX based on plane wave DFT calculations (VASP). Concentration ratio of N2 to H2 gases was 3:1, 4:1, and 9:1. Range of the studied pressures was 10 - 50 GPa on compression, and from 50 to 1 GPa on isotropic decompression of the extended network. Formation of an extended network with covalent bonds occurs between 30-50 GPa. Higher concentration of N requires higher pressure to form a covalent bond network. New structure of NH extended solids with covalent bonds are predicted: with P-1(CI-1) symmetry group for 9:1 ratio, with PBAM (D2H +9) symmetry group for 4:1 ratio, and with P-1(CI-1) for 3:1 ratio of N2 to H2 gas. Calculations of the mixtures of N2 and H2 gases at pressures in the range of 10-20 GPa resulted in a variety of structures without a covalent network, but consisting of nitrogen-containing molecules. For example, the lowest energy structure for a 3:1 ratio of N to H atoms consists of tetrazene and N2 molecules. At 10 GPa the lowest energy structure appears to be a combination of protonated ammonia and N2 molecules.

  8. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  9. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  10. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  11. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  12. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  13. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  14. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  15. Phantom model of physiologic intracranial pressure and cerebrospinal fluid dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bottan, Simone; Poulikakos, Dimos; Kurtcuoglu, Vartan

    2012-06-01

    We describe herein a novel life-size phantom model of the intracranial cavity and its validation. The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) domains including ventricular, cysternal, and subarachnoid spaces were derived via magnetic resonance imaging. Brain mechanical properties and cranio-spinal compliance were set based on published data. Both bulk and pulsatile physiologic CSF flow were modeled. Model validation was carried out by comparisons of flow and pressure measurements in the phantom with published in vivo data of healthy subjects. Physiologic intracranial pressure with 10 mmHg mean and 0.4 mmHg peak pulse amplitude was recorded in the ventricles. Peak CSF flow rates of 0.2 and 2 ml/s were measured in the cerebral aqueduct and subarachnoid space, respectively. The phantom constitutes a first-of-its-kind approach to modeling physiologic intracranial dynamics in vitro. Herein, we describe the phantom design and manufacturing, definition and implementation of its operating parameters, as well as the validation of the modeled dynamics. PMID:22333981

  16. High pressure experiments with a Mars general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, R. M.; Pollack, J. B.; Murphy, J. R.; Schaeffer, J.; Lee, H.

    1992-01-01

    The interaction of three physical processes will determine the stability of the Martian polar caps as the surface pressure increases: the greenhouse effect, atmospheric heat transport, and the change in the CO2 frost point temperature. The contribution of each is readily determined in the Mars general circulation model (GCM). Therefore, we have initiated experiments with the GCM to determine how these processes interact, and how the atmosphere-polar cap system responds to increasing surface pressure. The experiments are carried out for northern winter solstice and generally assume the atmosphere to be free of dust. Each experiment starts from resting isothermal conditions and runs for 50 Mars days. Mars' current orbital parameters are used. The experiments are for surface pressures of 120, 480, and 960 mb, which represent 16, 64, and 128 times the current value. To date we have analyzed the 120 mb experiment and the results indicate the contrary to the simpler models, the polar caps actually advance instead of retreat. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

  17. Numerical Investigation of Thermal Distribution and Pressurization Behavior in Helium Pressurized Cryogenic Tank by Introducing a Multi-component Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Wang; Yanzhong, Li; Zhan, Liu; Kang, Zhu

    An improved CFD model involving a multi-component gas mixturein the ullage is constructed to predict the pressurization behavior of a cryogenic tank considering the existence of pressurizing helium.A temperature difference between the local fluid and its saturation temperature corresponding to the vapor partial pressure is taken as the phase change driving force. As practical application of the model, hydrogen and oxygen tanks with helium pressurization arenumerically simulated by using themulti-component gas model. The results presentthat the improved model produce higher ullage temperature and pressure and lower wall temperaturethan those without multi-component consideration. The phase change has a slight influence on thepressurization performance due to the small quantities involved.

  18. Crystal Plasticity Model of Reactor Pressure Vessel Embrittlement in GRIZZLY

    SciTech Connect

    Chakraborty, Pritam; Biner, Suleyman Bulent; Zhang, Yongfeng; Spencer, Benjamin Whiting

    2015-07-01

    The integrity of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) is of utmost importance to ensure safe operation of nuclear reactors under extended lifetime. Microstructure-scale models at various length and time scales, coupled concurrently or through homogenization methods, can play a crucial role in understanding and quantifying irradiation-induced defect production, growth and their influence on mechanical behavior of RPV steels. A multi-scale approach, involving atomistic, meso- and engineering-scale models, is currently being pursued within the GRIZZLY project to understand and quantify irradiation-induced embrittlement of RPV steels. Within this framework, a dislocation-density based crystal plasticity model has been developed in GRIZZLY that captures the effect of irradiation-induced defects on the flow stress behavior and is presented in this report. The present formulation accounts for the interaction between self-interstitial loops and matrix dislocations. The model predictions have been validated with experiments and dislocation dynamics simulation.

  19. Model of a small surface wave discharge at atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, A.; Kiss'ovski, Zh

    2016-05-01

    Self-consistent model of a small microwave plasma source based on a surface wave sustained discharge at 2.45 GHz is presented in this study. The model includes dispersion relation of azimuthally symmetric surface waves, sustaining the discharge in a high permittivity ceramic tube (εd = 9.3) and the radial distribution of the field components at curtain values of the electron density are obtained. The electron Boltzmann equation under the local approximation is solved together with the heavy particle balance equations. A detailed collisional-radiative model for argon discharge at atmospheric pressure is implemented in the model. The changes in the EEDF shape and the mean electron energy with the value of the electron density are investigated. Results show that the EEDF is close to Maxwellian at our experimental conditions for the plasma density above 2.1020 (m-3).

  20. Multi-locus models of genetic risk of disease

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Evidence for genetic contribution to complex diseases is described by recurrence risks to relatives of diseased individuals. Genome-wide association studies allow a description of the genetics of the same diseases in terms of risk loci, their effects and allele frequencies. To reconcile the two descriptions requires a model of how risks from individual loci combine to determine an individual's overall risk. Methods We derive predictions of risk to relatives from risks at individual loci under a number of models and compare them with published data on disease risk. Results The model in which risks are multiplicative on the risk scale implies equality between the recurrence risk to monozygotic twins and the square of the recurrence risk to sibs, a relationship often not observed, especially for low prevalence diseases. We show that this theoretical equality is achieved by allowing impossible probabilities of disease. Other models, in which probabilities of disease are constrained to a maximum of one, generate results more consistent with empirical estimates for a range of diseases. Conclusions The unconstrained multiplicative model, often used in theoretical studies because of its mathematical tractability, is not a realistic model. We find three models, the constrained multiplicative, Odds (or Logit) and Probit (or liability threshold) models, all fit the data on risk to relatives. Currently, in practice it would be difficult to differentiate between these models, but this may become possible if genetic variants that explain the majority of the genetic variance are identified. PMID:20181060

  1. Body Fatness and Risk for Elevated Blood Pressure, Total Cholesterol, and Serum Lipoprotein Ratios in Children and Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Daniel P.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Examines the relationship between body fat percent and risk for elevated blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, and serum lipoprotein ratios in 1,230 African-American and 2,090 white 5-18 year olds (1,667 males and 1,653 females). Results support body fatness standards in children and adolescents as cardiovascular risk factors. (SLD)

  2. Estimating blood pressure using Windkessel model on Photoplethysmogram.

    PubMed

    Choudhury, Anirban Dutta; Banerjee, Rohan; Sinha, Aniruddha; Kundu, Shaswati

    2014-01-01

    Simple and non-invasive methods to estimate vital signs are very important for preventive healthcare. In this paper, we present a methodology to estimate Blood Pressure (BP) using Photoplethysmography (PPG). Instead of directly relating systolic and diastolic BP values with PPG features, our proposed methodology initially maps PPG features with some person specific intermediate latent parameters and later derives BP values from them. The 2-Element Windkessel model has been considered in the current context to estimate total peripheral resistance and arterial compliance of a person using PPG features, followed by linear regression for simulating arterial blood pressure. Experimental results, performed on a standard hospital dataset yielded absolute errors of 0.78±13.1 mmHg and 0.59 ± 10.23 mmHg for systolic and diastolic BP values respectively. Results also indicate that the methodology is more robust than the standard methodologies that directly estimate BP values from PPG signal. PMID:25571008

  3. A new steerable pressure force for parametric deformable models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Jun; Cooper, Lee; Sharma, Ashish; Kurc, Tahsin; Brat, Daniel; Saltz, Joel

    2011-03-01

    Active contour models have been widely used in various image analysis applications. Despite their usefulness, there are problems limiting their utility, such as capture range, concavity conformation, and convergence rate. This paper presents a new pressure-like force that not only improves contour convergence rate, but also encourages contours to conform to concave regions. Unlike the traditional pressure force, this new force does not require users' input for the force direction and is steerable according to the image content. Better convergence rate as well as force normalization consistency of this new force are presented when compared with those of the gradient vector flow force field on synthetic images. Accuracies of these two methods are compared against the manual markups on a set of cardiac MRI images. Moreover, results on a MRI image smoothed at different levels demonstrate the robustness of this new force to noise.

  4. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and blood pressure response during exercise in healthy children and adolescents: the European Youth Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Møller, Niels C; Grøntved, Anders; Wedderkopp, Niels; Ried-Larsen, Mathias; Kristensen, Peter L; Andersen, Lars B; Froberg, Karsten

    2010-10-01

    Raised blood pressure (BP) response during exercise independently predicts future hypertension. Subjects with higher BP in childhood also have elevated BP later in life. Therefore, the factors related to the regulation of exercise BP in children needs to be well understood. We hypothesized that physiological cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors would influence BP response during exercise in children and adolescents. This is a cross-sectional study of 439 Danish third-grade children and 364 ninth-grade adolescents. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was measured with sphygmomanometer during a maximal aerobic fitness test. Examined CVD risk factors were high-density lipoprotein (HDL)- and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, triglyceride, homeostasis model of assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and aerobic fitness. A random effect model was used to test the hypotheses. In boys, HOMA-IR score and BMI were positively related to SBP response during exercise (β = 1.03, P = 0.001, and β = 0.58, P = 0.017, respectively). The effects sizes of HOMA-IR score and BMI and the significance levels only changed slightly (β = 0.91, P = 0.004, and β = 0.43, P = 0.08, respectively) when the two variables were added in the same model. A significant positive association was observed between aerobic fitness and SBP response in girls (β = 3.13 and P = 0.002). HOMA-IR score and BMI were found to be positively related to the SBP response in male children and youth. At least partly, adiposity and insulin sensitivity seem to influence exercise SBP through different mechanisms. The positive relationship observed between aerobic fitness and SBP response in girls remains unexplainable for us, although post hoc analyses revealed that it was the case in the ninth graders only. PMID:20634358

  5. [Systematic pressure ulcer risk management.: Results of implementing multiple interventions at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin].

    PubMed

    Hauss, Armin; Greshake, Susanne; Skiba, Thomas; Schmidt, Kristine; Rohe, Julia; Jürgensen, Jan Steffen

    2016-01-01

    Pressure ulcers impose a high burden of disease on both the affected individual and society. Demographic change and multimorbidity aggravate the problem. The present study describes the systematic implementation of a comprehensive approach to reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in an inpatient setting. The introduction of systematic risk assessment and the subsequent risk-adjusted application of evidence-based prevention, combined with continuous feedback of outcomes as well as tailored training, were associated with a significant decline in the incidence of pressure ulcers. Especially the occurrence of high-grade ulcers could be minimized by this systems approach. PMID:27480185

  6. Modeling of Propagation of Interacting Cracks Under Hydraulic Pressure Gradient

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Hai; Mattson, Earl Douglas; Podgorney, Robert Karl

    2015-04-01

    A robust and reliable numerical model for fracture initiation and propagation, which includes the interactions among propagating fractures and the coupling between deformation, fracturing and fluid flow in fracture apertures and in the permeable rock matrix, would be an important tool for developing a better understanding of fracturing behaviors of crystalline brittle rocks driven by thermal and (or) hydraulic pressure gradients. In this paper, we present a physics-based hydraulic fracturing simulator based on coupling a quasi-static discrete element model (DEM) for deformation and fracturing with conjugate lattice network flow model for fluid flow in both fractures and porous matrix. Fracturing is represented explicitly by removing broken bonds from the network to represent microcracks. Initiation of new microfractures and growth and coalescence of the microcracks leads to the formation of macroscopic fractures when external and/or internal loads are applied. The coupled DEM-network flow model reproduces realistic growth pattern of hydraulic fractures. In particular, simulation results of perforated horizontal wellbore clearly demonstrate that elastic interactions among multiple propagating fractures, fluid viscosity, strong coupling between fluid pressure fluctuations within fractures and fracturing, and lower length scale heterogeneities, collectively lead to complicated fracturing patterns.

  7. Myometrium electromechanical modeling for internal uterine pressure estimation by electrohysterography.

    PubMed

    Rabotti, C; Mischi, M; van Laar, J O E H; Oei, S G; Bergmans, J W M

    2009-01-01

    During delivery, quantitative information on the uterine activity can be provided by internal uterine pressure (IUP) recordings using an invasive intrauterine pressure catheter (IUPC). The electrohysterogram, which measures the electrical signal that drives the mechanical contraction of the uterine muscle and the consequent IUP increase, is recorded by electrodes placed on the abdomen. Recent work demonstrated the possibility of reliably estimating the IUP noninvasively by electrohysterographic (EHG) signal analysis. To further improve the accuracy of IUP estimates, we investigated the use of three nonlinear functions for modeling the relationship between the electrical activation measured by the EHG signal and the mechanical response of the uterine muscle. The feature employed for obtaining a first estimate of the IUP is the unnormalized first statistical moment of the EHG spectrum. The relationship between the extracted feature and the IUP is modeled by a second-order polynomial, a logarithmic, and an exponential function. For validation, the IUPC and the EHG signals were recorded on nine women in labor. A second-order polynomial model already provided estimates that are highly correlated with the IUPC signal (r = 0.73). However, the logarithmic model resulted to be the most accurate, especially in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE = 5.13 mmHg). PMID:19963667

  8. Investigation of pressure gradient aware wall modeling in LES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiry, Olivier; Winckelmans, Gregoire; Duponcheel, Matthieu

    2015-11-01

    This work focuses on the investigation of various wall modeling strategies for the simulation of high Reynolds number wall-bounded turbulent flows with acceleration and/or deceleration. Our code is based on fourth order finite differences, is momentum conserving, and is energy conserving up to fourth order. We here use a ``channel flow'' set-up, with no slip and wall modeling at the bottom, with slip at the top, and with blowing and/or suction at the top in order to generate the desired acceleration-deceleration profile. Two strategies are investigated and compared. Pressure gradient corrected algebraic models are first considered, and we investigate various local averaging techniques so as to avoid imposing mean profile laws pointwise. RANS sub-layer models are then also considered, where the turbulent viscosity is corrected to account for pressure gradient effects and for resolved LES fluctuations effects. A wall-resolved LES was also performed to provide a reference solution. Research fellow (Ph.D. student) at the F.R.S. - FNRS (Belgium).

  9. Critical assessment of some inhomogeneous pressure Stephani models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerzak, Adam; Dąbrowski, Mariusz P.; Denkiewicz, Tomasz; Polarski, David; Puy, Denis

    2015-04-01

    We consider spherically symmetric inhomogeneous pressure Stephani universes, with the center of symmetry being our location. The main feature of these models is that comoving observers do not follow geodesics. In particular, comoving perfect fluids necessarily have a radially dependent pressure. We consider a subclass of these models characterized by some inhomogeneity parameter β . We show also that the velocity of sound of comoving perfect fluids, like the (effective) equation of state parameter, acquires away from the origin a time- and radial-dependent change proportional to β . In order to produce a realistic universe accelerating at late times without a dark energy component, one must take β <0 . The redshift acquires a modified dependence on the scale factor a (t ) with a relative modification of -9 %, peaking at z ˜4 and vanishing at the big bang and today on our past light cone. The equation of state parameter and the speed of sound of dustlike matter (corresponding to a vanishing pressure at the center of symmetry r =0 ) behave in a similar way, and away from the center of symmetry they become negative—a property usually encountered in the dark energy component only. In order to mimic the observed late-time accelerated expansion, the matter component must significantly depart from standard dust, presumably ruling this subclass of Stephani models out as a realistic cosmology. The only way to accept these models is to keep all standard matter components of the universe, including dark energy, and take an inhomogeneity parameter β that is sufficiently small.

  10. Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, J. A.; Gernhardt, M.

    2007-01-01

    To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of altitude symptoms or AMS was performed. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute PAO2 = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2 = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2

  11. Risk Assessment Tool for Pressure Ulcer Development in Indian Surgical Wards.

    PubMed

    Kumari, Sushma; Sharma, Deborshi; Rana, Anshika; Pathak, Reetesh; Lal, Romesh; Kumar, Ajay; Biswal, U C

    2015-06-01

    The aims of this paper were to compare the predictive validity of three pressure ulcer (PU) risk scales-the Norton scale, the Braden scale, and the Waterlow scale-and to choose the most appropriate calculator for predicting PU risk in surgical wards of India. This is an observational prospective cohort study in a tertiary educational hospital in New Delhi among 100 surgical ward patients from April to July 2011. The main outcomes measured included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP) and negative predictive value (PVN), and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the three PU risk assessment scales. Based on the cutoff points found most appropriate in this study, the sensitivity, specificity, PVP, and PVN were as follows: the Norton scale (cutoff, 16) had the values of 95.6, 93.5, 44.8, and 98.6, respectively; the Braden scale (cutoff, 17) had values of 100, 89.6, 42.5, and 100, respectively; and the Waterlow scale (cutoff, 11) had 91.3, 84.4, 38.8, and 97, respectively. According to the ROC curve, the Norton scale is the most appropriate tool. Factors such as physical condition, activity, mobility, body mass index (BMI), nutrition, friction, and shear are extremely significant in determining risk of PU development (p < 0.0001). The Norton scale is most effective in predicting PU risk in Indian surgical wards. BMI, mobility, activity, nutrition, friction, and shear are the most significant factors in Indian surgical ward settings with necessity for future comparison with established scales. PMID:26246703

  12. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  13. Aquatic models, genomics and chemical risk management.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Keith C; Hinton, David E; Mattingly, Carolyn J; Planchart, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The 5th Aquatic Animal Models for Human Disease meeting follows four previous meetings (Nairn et al., 2001; Schmale, 2004; Schmale et al., 2007; Hinton et al., 2009) in which advances in aquatic animal models for human disease research were reported, and community discussion of future direction was pursued. At this meeting, discussion at a workshop entitled Bioinformatics and Computational Biology with Web-based Resources (20 September 2010) led to an important conclusion: Aquatic model research using feral and experimental fish, in combination with web-based access to annotated anatomical atlases and toxicological databases, yields data that advance our understanding of human gene function, and can be used to facilitate environmental management and drug development. We propose here that the effects of genes and environment are best appreciated within an anatomical context - the specifically affected cells and organs in the whole animal. We envision the use of automated, whole-animal imaging at cellular resolution and computational morphometry facilitated by high-performance computing and automated entry into toxicological databases, as anchors for genetic and toxicological data, and as connectors between human and model system data. These principles should be applied to both laboratory and feral fish populations, which have been virtually irreplaceable sentinals for environmental contamination that results in human morbidity and mortality. We conclude that automation, database generation, and web-based accessibility, facilitated by genomic/transcriptomic data and high-performance and cloud computing, will potentiate the unique and potentially key roles that aquatic models play in advancing systems biology, drug development, and environmental risk management. PMID:21763781

  14. Tri-Gas Pressurization System Testing and Modeling for Cryogenic Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, B.; Polsgrove, R.; Stephens, J.; Hedayat, A.

    2014-01-01

    The use of Tri-gas in rocket propulsion systems is somewhat of a new technology. This paper defines Tri-gas as a mixture of gases composed largely of helium with a small percentage of a stoichiometric mixture of hydrogen and oxygen. When exposed to a catalyst the hydrogen and oxygen in the mixture combusts, significantly raising the temperature of the mixture. The increase in enthalpy resulting from the combustion process significantly decreases the required quantity of gas needed to pressurize the ullage of the vehicle propellant tanks. The objective of this effort was to better understand the operating characteristics of Tri-gas in a pressurization system with low temperature applications. In conjunction with ongoing programs at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, an effort has been undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics of Tri-gas through modeling and bench testing. Through improved understanding of the operating characteristics, the risk of using this new technology in a launch vehicle propulsion system was reduced. Bench testing of Tri-gas was a multistep process that targeted gas characteristics and performance aspects that pose a risk to application in a pressurization system. Pressurization systems are vital to propulsion system performance. Keeping a target ullage pressure in propulsions tanks is necessary to supply propellant at the conditions and flow rates required to maintain desired engine functionality. The first component of testing consisted of sampling Tri-gas sources that had been stagnant for various lengths of time in order to determine the rate at which stratification takes place. Second, a bench test was set up in which Tri-gas was sent through a catalyst bed. This test was designed to evaluate the performance characteristics of Tri-gas, under low temperature inlet temperatures, in a flight-like catalyst bed reactor. The third, most complex, test examined the performance characteristics of Tri-gas at low temperature temperatures

  15. Aspects of Mathematical Modelling of Pressure Retarded Osmosis

    PubMed Central

    Anissimov, Yuri G.

    2016-01-01

    In power generating terms, a pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) energy generating plant, on a river entering a sea or ocean, is equivalent to a hydroelectric dam with a height of about 60 meters. Therefore, PRO can add significantly to existing renewable power generation capacity if economical constrains of the method are resolved. PRO energy generation relies on a semipermeable membrane that is permeable to water and impermeable to salt. Mathematical modelling plays an important part in understanding flows of water and salt near and across semipermeable membranes and helps to optimize PRO energy generation. Therefore, the modelling can help realizing PRO energy generation potential. In this work, a few aspects of mathematical modelling of the PRO process are reviewed and discussed. PMID:26848696

  16. Aspects of Mathematical Modelling of Pressure Retarded Osmosis.

    PubMed

    Anissimov, Yuri G

    2016-01-01

    In power generating terms, a pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) energy generating plant, on a river entering a sea or ocean, is equivalent to a hydroelectric dam with a height of about 60 meters. Therefore, PRO can add significantly to existing renewable power generation capacity if economical constrains of the method are resolved. PRO energy generation relies on a semipermeable membrane that is permeable to water and impermeable to salt. Mathematical modelling plays an important part in understanding flows of water and salt near and across semipermeable membranes and helps to optimize PRO energy generation. Therefore, the modelling can help realizing PRO energy generation potential. In this work, a few aspects of mathematical modelling of the PRO process are reviewed and discussed. PMID:26848696

  17. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  18. Model of meteoroid risk in near-Earth space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mironov, V. V.; Murtazov, A. K.

    2015-11-01

    We present a model of the risk of meteoroid collision with spacecraft in near-Earth space. We assess the average risk of collision between spacecraft and bright meteoroids of the Perseids stream in 2007-2013.

  19. Depression and blood pressure in high-risk children and adolescents: an investigation using two longitudinal cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Hammerton, Gemma; Harold, Gordon; Thapar, Anita; Thapar, Ajay

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between blood pressure and depressive disorder in children and adolescents at high risk for depression. Design Multisample longitudinal design including a prospective longitudinal three-wave high-risk study of offspring of parents with recurrent depression and an on-going birth cohort for replication. Setting Community-based studies. Participants High-risk sample includes 281 families where children were aged 9–17 years at baseline and 10–19 years at the final data point. Replication cohort includes 4830 families where children were aged 11–14 years at baseline and 14–17 years at follow-up and a high-risk subsample of 612 offspring with mothers that had reported recurrent depression. Main outcome measures The new-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder, fourth edition defined depressive disorder in the offspring using established research diagnostic assessments—the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment in the high-risk sample and the Development and Wellbeing Assessment in the replication sample. Results Blood pressure was standardised for age and gender to create SD scores and child's weight was statistically controlled in all analyses. In the high-risk sample, lower systolic blood pressure at wave 1 significantly predicted new-onset depressive disorder in children (OR=0.65, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.96; p=0.029) but diastolic blood pressure did not. Depressive disorder at wave 1 did not predict systolic blood pressure at wave 3. A significant association between lower systolic blood pressure and future depression was also found in the replication cohort in the second subset of high-risk children whose mothers had experienced recurrent depression in the past. Conclusions Lower systolic blood pressure predicts new-onset depressive disorder in the offspring of parents with depression. Further studies are needed to investigate how this association arises. PMID:24071459

  20. Invasively Measured Aortic Systolic Blood Pressure and Office Systolic Blood Pressure in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Laugesen, Esben; Knudsen, Søren T; Hansen, Klavs W; Rossen, Niklas B; Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Hansen, Michael G; Munkholm, Henrik; Thomsen, Kristian K; Søndergaard, Hanne; Bøttcher, Morten; Raungaard, Bent; Madsen, Morten; Hulman, Adam; Witte, Daniel; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Poulsen, Per L

    2016-09-01

    Aortic systolic blood pressure (BP) represents the hemodynamic cardiac and cerebral burden more directly than office systolic BP. Whether invasively measured aortic systolic BP confers additional prognostic value beyond office BP remains debated. In this study, office systolic BP and invasively measured aortic systolic BP were recorded in 21 908 patients (mean age: 63 years; 58% men; 14% with diabetes mellitus) with stable angina pectoris undergoing elective coronary angiography during January 2001 to December 2012. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the association with incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and death. Discrimination and reclassification were assessed using Harrell's C and the Continuous Net Reclassification Index. Data were analyzed with and without stratification by diabetes mellitus status. During a median follow-up period of 3.7 years (range: 0.1-10.8 years), 422 strokes, 511 myocardial infarctions, and 1530 deaths occurred. Both office and aortic systolic BP were associated with stroke in patients with diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio per 10 mm Hg, 1.18 [95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.30] and 1.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.24], respectively) and with myocardial infarction in patients without diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.12] and 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.10], respectively). In models including both BP measurements, aortic BP lost statistical significance and aortic BP did not confer improvement in either C-statistics or net reclassification analysis. In conclusion, invasively measured aortic systolic BP does not add prognostic information about cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality compared with office BP in patients with stable angina pectoris, either with or without diabetes mellitus. PMID:27402917

  1. NASA's Current Evidence and Hypothesis for the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Otto, Christian A.; Norsk, Peter; Oubre, Cherie M.; Pass, Anastas F.; Tarver, William

    2012-01-01

    While 40 years of human spaceflight exploration has reported visual decrement to a certain extent in a subgroup of astronauts, recent data suggests that there is indeed a subset of crewmembers that experience refraction changes (hyperoptic shift), cotton wool spot formation, choroidal fold development, papilledema, optic nerve sheath distention and/or posterior globe flattening with varying degrees of severity and permanence. Pre and postflight ocular measures have identified a potential risk of permanent visual changes as a result of microgravity exposure, which has been defined as the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure risk (VIIP). The combination of symptoms are referred to as the VIIP syndrome. It is thought that the ocular structural and optic nerve changes are caused by events precipitated by the cephalad fluid shift crewmembers experience during long-duration spaceflight. Three important systems, ocular, cardiovascular, and central nervous, seem to be involved in the development of symptoms, but the etiology is still under speculation. It is believed that some crewmembers are more susceptible to these changes due to genetic/anatomical predisposition or lifestyle (fitness) related factors. Future research will focus on determining the etiology of the VIIP syndrome and development of mechanisms to mitigate the spaceflight risk.

  2. Generic risk insights for Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering pressurized water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, R.; Taylor, J.; Fresco, A. ); Chung, J. )

    1990-11-01

    A methodology has been developed to extract generic risk-based information from probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering (CE) pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and apply the insights gained to Westinghouse and Ce plants have not been subjected to a PRA. The available PRAs (five Westinghouse plants and one CE plant) were examined to identify the most probable, i.e., dominant accident sequences at each plant. The goal was to include all sequences which represented at least 80% of core damage frequency. If the same plant specific dominant accident sequence appeared within this boundary in at least two plant PRAs, the sequence was considered to be a representative sequence. Eleven sequences met this definition. From these sequences, the most important component failures and human errors that contributed to each sequence have been prioritized. Guidance is provided to prioritize the representative sequences and modify selected basic events that have been shown to be sensitive to the plant specific design or operating variations of the contributing PRAs. This risk-based guidance can be used for utility and NRC activities including operator training maintenance, design review, and inspections.

  3. Shear modeling: thermoelasticity at high temperature and pressure for tantalum

    SciTech Connect

    Orlikowski, D; Soderlind, P; Moriarty, J A

    2004-12-06

    For large-scale constitutive strength models the shear modulus is typically assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. However, for materials compressed beyond the Hugoniot or in regimes where there is very little experimental data, accurate and validated models must be used. To this end, we present here a new methodology that fully accounts for electron- and ion-thermal contributions to the elastic moduli over broad ranges of temperature (<20,000 K) and pressure (<10 Mbar). In this approach, the full potential linear muffin-tin orbital (FP-LMTO) method for the cold and electron-thermal contributions is closely coupled with ion-thermal contributions. For the latter two separate approaches are used. In one approach, the quasi-harmonic, ion-thermal contribution is obtained through a Brillouin zone sum of strain derivatives of the phonons, and in the other a full anharmonic ion-thermal contribution is obtained directly through Monte Carlo (MC) canonical distribution averages of strain derivatives on the multi-ion potential itself. Both approaches use quantum-based interatomic potentials derived from model generalized pseudopotential theory (MGPT). For tantalum, the resulting elastic moduli are compared to available ultrasonic measurements and diamond-anvil-cell compression experiments. Over the range of temperature and pressure considered, the results are then used in a polycrystalline averaging for the shear modulus to assess the linear temperature dependence for Ta.

  4. Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Theodore W. II

    2013-01-01

    An algorithm has been developed to take advantage of the graphics processing hardware in modern computers to efficiently compute high-fidelity solar pressure forces and torques on spacecraft, taking into account the possibility of self-shading due to the articulation of spacecraft components such as solar arrays. The process is easily extended to compute other results that depend on three-dimensional attitude analysis, such as solar array power generation or free molecular flow drag. The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. The parts of the components being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun, as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun. The purpose of this innovation is to enable high-fidelity computation of solar pressure and power generation effects of illuminated portions of spacecraft, taking self-shading from spacecraft attitude and movable components into account. The key idea in this innovation is to compute results dependent upon complicated geometry by using an image to break the problem into thousands or millions of sub-problems with simple geometry, and then the results from the simpler problems are combined to give high-fidelity results for the full geometry. This process is performed by constructing a 3D model of a spacecraft using an appropriate computer language (OpenGL), and running that model on a modern computer's 3D accelerated video processor. This quickly and accurately generates a view of the model (as shown on a computer screen) that takes rotation and articulation of spacecraft components into account. When this view is interpreted as the spacecraft as seen by the Sun, then only the portions of the craft visible in the view are illuminated. The view as

  5. Modeling unsteady forces and pressures on a rapidly pitching airfoil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiavone, Nicole K.; Dawson, Scott T. M.; Rowley, Clarence W.; Williams, David R.

    2014-11-01

    This work develops models to quantify and understand the unsteady aerodynamic forces arising from rapid pitching motion of a NACA0012 airfoil at a Reynolds number of 50 000. The system identification procedure applies a generalized DMD-type algorithm to time-resolved wind tunnel measurements of the lift and drag forces, as well as the pressure at six locations on the suction surface of the airfoil. Models are identified for 5-degree pitch-up and pitch-down maneuvers within the overall range of 0-20 degrees. The identified models can accurately capture the effects of flow separation and leading-edge vortex formation and convection. We demonstrate that switching between different linear models can give accurate prediction of the nonlinear behavior that is present in high-amplitude maneuvers. The models are accurate for a wide-range of motions, including pitch-and-hold, sinusoidal, and pseudo-random pitching maneuvers. Providing the models access to a subset of the measured data channels can allow for improved estimates of the remaining states via the use of a Kalman filter, suggesting that the modeling framework could be useful for aerodynamic control applications. This work was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, under Award No. FA9550-12-1-0075.

  6. Modeling of patient's blood pressure variation during ambulance transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakatani, Kenji; Ono, Takahiko; Kobayasi, Yasuhide; Hikita, Shinichi; Saito, Mitsuyuki

    2007-12-01

    In an emergency transportation by ambulance, a patient is transported in a supine position. In this position, a patient's blood pressure (BP) variation depending on an inertial force which occurs when an ambulance accelerates or decelerates. This BP variation causes a critical damage for a patent with brain disorder. In order to keep a patient stable during transportation, it is required to maintain small BP variation. To analyze the BP variation during transportation, a model of the BP variation has so far been made. But, it can estimate the BP variation only in braking. The purpose of this paper is to make a dynamical model of the BP variation which can simulate it in both braking and accelerating. First, to obtain the data to construct the model, we used a tilting bed to measure a head-to-foot acceleration and BP of fingertip. Based on this data, we build a mathematical model whose input is the head-to-foot acceleration and output is the Mean BP variation. It is a switched model which switches two models depending on the jerk. We add baroreceptor reflex to the model as a offset value.

  7. Circumferential pressure distributions in a model labyrinth seal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leong, Y. M. M. S.; Brown, R. D.

    1982-01-01

    A research program to isolate and study leakage flow through labyrinth glands was initiated. Circumferential pressure distributions were measured in the labyrinth glands with geometry appropriate to the high pressure labyrinths in large steam turbines. Knowledge of this pressure distribution is essential as it is this unequal pressure field that results in the destabilizing force. Parameters that are likely to affect the pressure distributions are incorporated into the test rig. Some preliminary pressure profiles are presented.

  8. Modeling HIV Risk in Highly Vulnerable Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huba, G. J.; Panter, A. T.; Melchior, Lisa A.; Trevithick, Lee; Woods, Elizabeth R.; Wright, Eric; Feudo, Rudy; Tierney, Steven; Schneir, Arlene; Tenner, Adam; Remafedi, Gary; Greenberg, Brian; Sturdevant, Marsha; Goodman, Elizabeth; Hodgins, Antigone; Wallace, Michael; Brady, Russell E.; Singer, Barney; Marconi, Katherine

    2003-01-01

    This article examines the structure of several HIV risk behaviors in an ethnically and geographically diverse sample of 8,251 clients from 10 innovative demonstration projects intended for adolescents living with, or at risk for, HIV. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified 2 risk factors for men (sexual intercourse with men and a…

  9. A Simplified Two-Component Model of Blood Pressure Fluctuation

    PubMed Central

    Brychta, Robert J.; Shiavi, Richard; Robertson, David; Biaggioni, Italo; Diedrich, André

    2007-01-01

    We propose a simple moving-average (MA) model that uses the low-frequency (LF) component of the peroneal muscle sympathetic nerve spike rate (LFspike rate) and the high-frequency (HF) component of respiration (HFResp) to describe the LF neurovascular fluctuations and the HF mechanical oscillations in systolic blood pressure (SBP), respectively. This method was validated by data from eight healthy subjects (23–47 yr old, 6 male, 2 female) during a graded tilt (15° increments every 5 min to a 60° angle). The LF component of SBP (LFSBP) had a strong baroreflex-mediated feedback correlation with LFspike rate (r = −0.69 ± 0.05) and also a strong feedforward relation to LFspike rate [r = 0.58 ± 0.03 with LFSBP delay (τ) = 5.625 ± 0.15 s]. The HF components of spike rate (HFspike rate) and SBP (HFSBP) were not significantly correlated. Conversely, HFResp and HFSBP were highly correlated (r = −0.79 ± 0.04), whereas LFResp and LFSBP were significantly less correlated (r = 0.45 ± 0.08). The mean correlation coefficients between the measured and model-predicted LFSBP (r = 0.74 ± 0.03) in the supine position did not change significantly during tilt. The mean correlation between the measured and model-predicted HFSBP was 0.89 ± 0.02 in the supine position. R2 values for the regression analysis of the model-predicted and measured LF and HF powers indicate that 78 and 91% of the variability in power can be explained by the linear relation of LFspike rate to LFSBP and HFResp to HFSBP. We report a simple two-component model using neural sympathetic and mechanical respiratory inputs that can explain the majority of blood pressure fluctuation at rest and during orthostatic stress in healthy subjects. PMID:17012354

  10. Intraoperative blood pressure. What patterns identify patients at risk for postoperative complications?

    PubMed Central

    Charlson, M E; MacKenzie, C R; Gold, J P; Ales, K L; Topkins, M; Shires, G T

    1990-01-01

    While monitoring blood pressure is a routine part of intraoperative management, several methods have been proposed to characterize intraoperative hemodynamic patterns as predictors of postoperative complications. In this prospective study of a high-risk population of hypertensive and diabetic patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery, one objective was to compare different approaches to the assessment of intraoperative hemodynamic patterns to identify those patterns most likely to be associated with postoperative complications. Twenty-one per cent of the 254 patients sustained cardiac or renal complications after operation. Patients with more than 1 hour of greater than or equal to 20-mmHg decreases in mean arterial pressure (MAP) or patients with less than 1 hour of greater than or equal to 20-mmHg decreases and more than 15 minutes of greater than or equal to 20-mmHg increases were at highest risk for postoperative complications. Together these two patterns had a 46% sensitivity rate and a 70% specificity rate in predicting postoperative complications. Using 20% change in intraoperative MAP produced results nearly identical to 20-mmHg changes. When the duration of 20-mmHg changes was accounted for, changes of a greater magnitude (e.g., 40 mmHg) were not significant independent predictors of complications. The use of the mean difference from preoperative MAP was misleading because patients who experienced both high and low MAPs tended to have nearly normal mean MAPs, but high complication rates. The absolute magnitude of intraoperative MAPs, regardless of the preoperative levels, also was evaluated. The overall mean intraoperative MAP was not a significant predictor of complications. Specific intraoperative MAPs (e.g., less than 70 mmHg and more than 120 mmHg) also were evaluated. While neither was a significant predictor, there was a trend for increased complications among patients whose MAPs decreased to less than 70 mmHg. Intraoperative blood pressure

  11. Reduced Uterine Perfusion Pressure (RUPP) Model of Preeclampsia in Mice

    PubMed Central

    Fushima, Tomofumi; Sekimoto, Akiyo; Minato, Takahiro; Ito, Takuya; Oe, Yuji; Kisu, Kiyomi; Sato, Emiko; Funamoto, Kenichi; Hayase, Toshiyuki; Kimura, Yoshitaka; Ito, Sadayoshi; Sato, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Nobuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy-induced hypertension with proteinuria that typically develops after 20 weeks of gestation. A reduction in uterine blood flow causes placental ischemia and placental release of anti-angiogenic factors such as sFlt-1 followed by PE. Although the reduced uterine perfusion pressure (RUPP) model is widely used in rats, investigating the role of genes on PE using genetically engineered animals has been problematic because it has been difficult to make a useful RUPP model in mice. To establish a RUPP model of PE in mice, we bilaterally ligated ovarian vessels distal to ovarian branches, uterine vessels, or both in ICR-strain mice at 14.5 days post coitum (dpc). Consequently, these mice had elevated BP, increased urinary albumin excretion, severe endotheliosis, and mesangial expansion. They also had an increased incidence of miscarriage and premature delivery. Embryonic weight at 18.5 dpc was significantly lower than that in sham mice. The closer to the ligation site the embryos were, the higher the resorption rate and the lower the embryonic weight. The phenotype was more severe in the order of ligation at the ovarian vessels < uterine vessels < both. Unlike the RUPP models described in the literature, this model did not constrict the abdominal aorta, which allowed BP to be measured with a tail cuff. This novel RUPP model in mice should be useful for investigating the pathogenesis of PE in genetically engineered mice and for evaluating new therapies for PE. PMID:27187738

  12. Reduced Uterine Perfusion Pressure (RUPP) Model of Preeclampsia in Mice.

    PubMed

    Fushima, Tomofumi; Sekimoto, Akiyo; Minato, Takahiro; Ito, Takuya; Oe, Yuji; Kisu, Kiyomi; Sato, Emiko; Funamoto, Kenichi; Hayase, Toshiyuki; Kimura, Yoshitaka; Ito, Sadayoshi; Sato, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Nobuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy-induced hypertension with proteinuria that typically develops after 20 weeks of gestation. A reduction in uterine blood flow causes placental ischemia and placental release of anti-angiogenic factors such as sFlt-1 followed by PE. Although the reduced uterine perfusion pressure (RUPP) model is widely used in rats, investigating the role of genes on PE using genetically engineered animals has been problematic because it has been difficult to make a useful RUPP model in mice. To establish a RUPP model of PE in mice, we bilaterally ligated ovarian vessels distal to ovarian branches, uterine vessels, or both in ICR-strain mice at 14.5 days post coitum (dpc). Consequently, these mice had elevated BP, increased urinary albumin excretion, severe endotheliosis, and mesangial expansion. They also had an increased incidence of miscarriage and premature delivery. Embryonic weight at 18.5 dpc was significantly lower than that in sham mice. The closer to the ligation site the embryos were, the higher the resorption rate and the lower the embryonic weight. The phenotype was more severe in the order of ligation at the ovarian vessels < uterine vessels < both. Unlike the RUPP models described in the literature, this model did not constrict the abdominal aorta, which allowed BP to be measured with a tail cuff. This novel RUPP model in mice should be useful for investigating the pathogenesis of PE in genetically engineered mice and for evaluating new therapies for PE. PMID:27187738

  13. Variants in blood pressure genes and the risk of renal cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Andreotti, Gabriella; Boffetta, Paolo; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Karami, Sara; Menashe, Idan; Yeager, Meredith; Chanock, Stephen J.; Zaridze, David; Matteev, Vsevolod; Janout, Vladimir; Kollarova, Hellena; Bencko, Vladimir; Navratilova, Marie; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonilia; Mates, Dana; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brennan, Paul; Chow, Wong-Ho; Moore, Lee E.

    2010-01-01

    Hypertension is a known risk factor for renal cell carcinoma (RCC), although the underlying biological mechanisms of its action are unknown. To clarify the role of hypertension in RCC, we examined the risk of RCC in relation to 142 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in eight genes having a role in blood pressure control. We analyzed 777 incident and histologically confirmed RCC cases and 1035 controls who completed an in-person interview as part of a multi-center, hospital-based case–control study in Central Europe. Genotyping was conducted with an Illumina® GoldenGate® Oligo Pool All assay using germ line DNA. Of the eight genes examined, AGT (angiotensinogen) was most strongly associated with RCC (minimum P-value permutation test = 0.02). Of the 17 AGT tagging SNPs considered, associations were strongest for rs1326889 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15–1.58] and rs2493137 (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.12–1.54), which are located in the promoter. Stratified analysis revealed that the effects of the AGT SNPs were statistically significant in participants with hypertension or high body mass index (BMI) (≥25 kg/m2), but not in subjects without hypertension and with a normal BMI (<25 kg/m2). Also, haplotypes with risk-conferring alleles of markers located in the promoter and intron 1 regions of AGT were significantly associated with RCC compared with the common haplotype in subjects with hypertension or high BMI (global P = 0.003). Our findings suggest that common genetic variants of AGT, particularly those in the promoter, increase RCC risk among subjects who are hypertensive or overweight. PMID:20047954

  14. Risk Factors for Refractory and Delayed De novo Otitis Media Requiring Pressure Equalization Tube Insertion

    PubMed Central

    Bowe, Sarah N.; Jatana, Kris R.; Kang, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Objective Limited data exists regarding risk factors for otitis media in older children and specifically those for which surgical intervention is performed. This study investigated potential risk factors in this older age group who required pressure equalization tube (PET) insertion. Study design Retrospective cohort study Setting Tertiary care pediatric academic medical center Subjects and methods Children 6–12 years old undergoing PET insertion between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2011. Data was stratified into two separate age cohorts (6–7 versus 8–12-year-olds) and compared using chi-square analysis. Results A total of 263 patients met study criteria. PET insertion was most common in 6 year-olds (36%, 95/263). Presence of siblings (p=0.03) and history of recurrent upper respiratory tract infection (p<0.01), otalgia (p<0.05), otorrhea (p<0.001), and nasal discharge (p<0.001) were common in the older cohort. No statistical difference was found for history of recurrent acute otitis media, allergy, asthma, or atopy between the two groups (p=0.23–0.92), although the overall prevalence of these conditions was high in both cohorts. Conclusion The 8–12-year-olds had a history of recurrent upper respiratory tract infection and more infectious symptoms than the 6–7-year-olds. Atopy can lead to a heightened susceptibility to upper respiratory tract infections and potential increase in the relative risk of otitis media. In our patient population, while there was no statistically significant difference in history of asthma, allergy, or atopy, the overall prevalence within both cohorts was relatively high. Therefore, this study provides insight into many pertinent and potentially modifiable risk factors for older children requiring PET insertion. PMID:27175444

  15. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests

    PubMed Central

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M.; Urošević, Branko; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor—the debt-to-asset ratio R—in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes’s theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees—although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  16. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests.

    PubMed

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M; Urosevic, Branko; Stanley, H Eugene

    2010-10-26

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor--the debt-to-asset ratio R--in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes's theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees--although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  17. Whole-body mathematical model for simulating intracranial pressure dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakin, William D. (Inventor); Penar, Paul L. (Inventor); Stevens, Scott A. (Inventor); Tranmer, Bruce I. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    A whole-body mathematical model (10) for simulating intracranial pressure dynamics. In one embodiment, model (10) includes 17 interacting compartments, of which nine lie entirely outside of intracranial vault (14). Compartments (F) and (T) are defined to distinguish ventricular from extraventricular CSF. The vasculature of the intracranial system within cranial vault (14) is also subdivided into five compartments (A, C, P, V, and S, respectively) representing the intracranial arteries, capillaries, choroid plexus, veins, and venous sinus. The body's extracranial systemic vasculature is divided into six compartments (I, J, O, Z, D, and X, respectively) representing the arteries, capillaries, and veins of the central body and the lower body. Compartments (G) and (B) include tissue and the associated interstitial fluid in the intracranial and lower regions. Compartment (Y) is a composite involving the tissues, organs, and pulmonary circulation of the central body and compartment (M) represents the external environment.

  18. Extended fluid models: Pressure tensor effects and equilibria

    SciTech Connect

    Cerri, S. S.; Henri, P.; Califano, F.; Pegoraro, F.; Del Sarto, D.; Faganello, M.

    2013-11-15

    We consider the use of “extended fluid models” as a viable alternative to computationally demanding kinetic simulations in order to manage the global large scale evolution of a collisionless plasma while accounting for the main effects that come into play when spatial micro-scales of the order of the ion inertial scale d{sub i} and of the thermal ion Larmor radius ρ{sub i} are formed. We present an extended two-fluid model that retains finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections to the ion pressure tensor while electron inertia terms and heat fluxes are neglected. Within this model we calculate analytic FLR plasma equilibria in the presence of a shear flow and elucidate the role of the magnetic field asymmetry. Using a Hybrid Vlasov code, we show that these analytic equilibria offer a significant improvement with respect to conventional magnetohydrodynamic shear-flow equilibria when initializing kinetic simulations.

  19. Research on R&D Project Risk Management Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiaoyan; Cai, Chen; Song, Hao; Song, Juan

    R&D project is an exploratory high-risk investment activity and has potential management flexibility. In R&D project risk management process, it is hard to quantify risk with very little past information available. This paper introduces quality function deployment and real option in traditional project risk management process. Through waterfall decomposition mode, R&D project risk management process is constructed step by step; through real option, the managerial flexibility inherent in R&D project can be modeled. In the paper, first of all, according to the relation matrix between R&D project success factors and risk indexes, risk priority list can be obtained. Then, risk features of various stages are analyzed. Finally, real options are embedded into various stages of R&D project by the risk features. In order to effectively manage R&D risk in a dynamic cycle, the steps above should be carried out repeatedly.

  20. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study 1

    PubMed Central

    Borghardt, Andressa Tomazini; do Prado, Thiago Nascimento; de Araújo, Thiago Moura; Rogenski, Noemi Marisa Brunet; Bringuente, Maria Edla de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients. METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow) upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories. RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71%) and low specificity (21% and 47%) respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale. CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power. PMID:25806628

  1. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  2. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  3. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  4. Using the split Hopkinson pressure bar to validate material models

    PubMed Central

    Church, Philip; Cornish, Rory; Cullis, Ian; Gould, Peter; Lewtas, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This paper gives a discussion of the use of the split-Hopkinson bar with particular reference to the requirements of materials modelling at QinetiQ. This is to deploy validated material models for numerical simulations that are physically based and have as little characterization overhead as possible. In order to have confidence that the models have a wide range of applicability, this means, at most, characterizing the models at low rate and then validating them at high rate. The split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) is ideal for this purpose. It is also a very useful tool for analysing material behaviour under non-shock wave loading. This means understanding the output of the test and developing techniques for reliable comparison of simulations with SHPB data. For materials other than metals comparison with an output stress v strain curve is not sufficient as the assumptions built into the classical analysis are generally violated. The method described in this paper compares the simulations with as much validation data as can be derived from deployed instrumentation including the raw strain gauge data on the input and output bars, which avoids any assumptions about stress equilibrium. One has to take into account Pochhammer–Chree oscillations and their effect on the specimen and recognize that this is itself also a valuable validation test of the material model. PMID:25071238

  5. Using the split Hopkinson pressure bar to validate material models.

    PubMed

    Church, Philip; Cornish, Rory; Cullis, Ian; Gould, Peter; Lewtas, Ian

    2014-08-28

    This paper gives a discussion of the use of the split-Hopkinson bar with particular reference to the requirements of materials modelling at QinetiQ. This is to deploy validated material models for numerical simulations that are physically based and have as little characterization overhead as possible. In order to have confidence that the models have a wide range of applicability, this means, at most, characterizing the models at low rate and then validating them at high rate. The split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) is ideal for this purpose. It is also a very useful tool for analysing material behaviour under non-shock wave loading. This means understanding the output of the test and developing techniques for reliable comparison of simulations with SHPB data. For materials other than metals comparison with an output stress v strain curve is not sufficient as the assumptions built into the classical analysis are generally violated. The method described in this paper compares the simulations with as much validation data as can be derived from deployed instrumentation including the raw strain gauge data on the input and output bars, which avoids any assumptions about stress equilibrium. One has to take into account Pochhammer-Chree oscillations and their effect on the specimen and recognize that this is itself also a valuable validation test of the material model. PMID:25071238

  6. RSRM Chamber Pressure Oscillations: Transit Time Models and Unsteady CFD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesman, Tom; Stewart, Eric

    1996-01-01

    Space Shuttle solid rocket motor low frequency internal pressure oscillations have been observed since early testing. The same type of oscillations also are present in the redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM). The oscillations, which occur during RSRM burn, are predominantly at the first three motor cavity longitudinal acoustic mode frequencies. Broadband flow and combustion noise provide the energy to excite these modes at low levels throughout motor burn, however, at certain times during burn the fluctuating pressure amplitude increases significantly. The increased fluctuations at these times suggests an additional excitation mechanism. The RSRM has inhibitors on the propellant forward facing surface of each motor segment. The inhibitors are in a slot at the segment field joints to prevent burning at that surface. The aft facing segment surface at a field joint slot burns and forms a cavity of time varying size. Initially the inhibitor is recessed in the field joint cavity. As propellant burns away the inhibitor begins to protrude into the bore flow. Two mechanisms (transit time models) that are considered potential pressure oscillation excitations are cavity-edge tones, and inhibitor hole-tones. Estimates of frequency variation with time of longitudinal acoustic modes, cavity edge-tones, and hole-tones compare favorably with frequencies measured during motor hot firing. It is believed that the highest oscillation amplitudes occur when vortex shedding frequencies coincide with motor longitudinal acoustic modes. A time accurate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis was made to replicate the observations from motor firings and to observe the transit time mechanisms in detail. FDNS is the flow solver used to detail the time varying aspects of the flow. The fluid is approximated as a single-phase ideal gas. The CFD model was an axisymmetric representation of the RSRM at 80 seconds into burn.Deformation of the inhibitors by the internal flow was determined

  7. Risk Assessment for Titanium Pressure Vessels Operating Inside the ARES I's Liquid Hydrogen Tank Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jonathan A.

    2008-01-01

    Titanium alloy (Ti-6-4) is currently being proposed for the manufacturing of pressure vessels (PV) for storage of compressed helium gas, which are mounted inside the ARES I's liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank. At cryogenic temperature, titanium alloys usually have the highest strength-to-weight ratio property and have been considered as the metallic materials of choice for lightweight PV operating in LH2 environment. Titanium PV s are also considered as heritage hardware because they have been used by NASA for the Saturn IV-B rocket s LH2 tank in the mid 1960 s. However, hydrogen embrittlement is possible if Ti-6-4 alloy is exposed to gaseous hydrogen at certain pressure and temperature during the LH2 tank filling and draining operations on the launch pad, and during the J2X engine burn period for the ARES I s upper stage. Additionally, the fracture toughness and ductility properties of Ti-6-4 are significantly decreased at cryogenic temperature. These factors do not necessary preclude the use of titanium PV in hydrogen or at cryogenic applications; however, their synergistic effects and the material damage tolerance must be accounted for in the mission life assessment for PV s, which are considered as fracture critical hardware. In this paper, an overview of the risk assessment for Ti-6-4 alloy, strategy to control hydrogen embrittlement and brief metallic material trade study for PV operating in LH2 tank will be presented.

  8. Proliferation Risk Characterization Model Prototype Model - User and Programmer Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Dukelow, J.S.; Whitford, D.

    1998-12-01

    A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the Risk categories. [Appendix G available on diskette only.

  9. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    PubMed

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-01-01

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  10. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  11. Modeling of thermal processes in high pressure liquid chromatography. I. Low pressure onset of thermal heterogeneity

    SciTech Connect

    Kaczmarski, Krzysztof; Guiochon, Georges A

    2009-01-01

    Heat due to viscous friction is generated in chromatographic columns. When these columns are operated at high flow rates, under a high inlet pressure, this heat causes the formation of significant axial and radial temperature gradients. Consequently, these columns become heterogeneous and several physico-chemical parameters, including the retention factors and the parameters of the mass transfer kinetics of analytes are no longer constant along and across the columns. A robust modeling of the distributions of the physico-chemical parameters allows the analysis of the impact of the heat generated on column performance. We developed a new model of the coupled heat and mass transfers in chromatographic columns, calculated the axial and radial temperature distributions in a column, and derived the distributions of the viscosity and the density of the mobile phase, hence of the axial and radial mobile phase velocities. The coupling of the mass and the heat balances in chromatographic columns was used to model the migration of a compound band under linear conditions. This process yielded the elution band profiles of analytes, hence the column efficiency under two different sets of experimental conditions: (1) the column is operated under natural convection conditions; (2) the column is dipped in a stream of thermostated fluid. The calculated results show that the column efficiency is remarkably lower in the second than in the first case. The inconvenience of maintaining constant the temperature of the column wall (case 2) is that retention factors and mobile phase velocities vary much more significantly across the column than if the column is kept under natural convection conditions (case 1).

  12. [Association of Braden subscales with the risk of development of pressure ulcer].

    PubMed

    Zambonato, Bruna Pochmann; de Assis, Michelli Cristina Silva; Beghetto, Mariur Gomes

    2013-06-01

    Pressure ulcers (PU) may increase the incidence of hospital complications, and one should prevent this damage. The Braden Scale stands out as a tool to assess the risk of PU. The study aimed to identify changes in the score of the Braden subscales are associated with the risk of developing PCU. Logistic regression was used in a retrospective cohort study conducted in Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre in adults hospitalized in surgical clinical units from October 2005 to June 2006. We evaluated the records database of 1503 patients with a mean aged 55.5 +/- 16 years, 52.7% female. The incidence of PU was 1.8% and was associated with diabetes and heart failure. There was a higher PU in patients worst in sensory perception, mobility, and activity and the presence of moisture. No association was found between nutrition and PU. Except nutrition, the other Braden sub-scales shown to be predictive of PU. PMID:24015458

  13. Lower stroke risk with lower blood pressure in hemodynamic cerebral ischemia

    PubMed Central

    Clarke, William R.; Grubb, Robert L.; Videen, Tom O.; Adams, Harold P.; Derdeyn, Colin P.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether strict blood pressure (BP) control is the best medical management for patients with symptomatic carotid artery occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia. Methods: In this prospective observational cohort study, we analyzed data from 91 participants in the nonsurgical group of the Carotid Occlusion Surgery Study (COSS) who had recent symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia manifested by ipsilateral increased oxygen extraction fraction. The target BP goal in COSS was ≤130/85 mm Hg. We compared the occurrence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke during follow-up in the 41 participants with mean BP ≤130/85 mm Hg to the remaining 50 with higher BP. Results: Of 16 total ipsilateral ischemic strokes that occurred during follow-up, 3 occurred in the 41 participants with mean follow-up BP of ≤130/85 mm Hg, compared to 13 in the remaining 50 participants with mean follow-up BP >130/85 mm Hg (hazard ratio 3.742, 95% confidence interval 1.065–13.152, log-rank p = 0.027). Conclusion: BPs ≤130/85 mm Hg were associated with lower subsequent stroke risk in these patients. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class III evidence that control of hypertension ≤130/85 mm Hg is associated with a reduced risk of subsequent ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with recently symptomatic carotid occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia (increased oxygen extraction fraction). PMID:24532276

  14. Risk factors for low colloid osmotic pressure during infant cardiopulmonary bypass with a colloidal prime.

    PubMed

    Golab, Hanna D; Takkenberg, Johanna J M; Bogers, Ad J J C

    2009-05-01

    Extensive variations of colloid osmotic pressure (COP) measured in the priming as well as during infant cardiopulmonary bypass motivated us to audit clinical and laboratory data to identify the risk factors for low COP at the end of bypass. Data of 73 consecutive infant patients with body weight <10 kg, who underwent elective, first time open-heart surgery between March 2005 and December 2006 were examined. The following variables were analyzed: COP, blood loss, transfusion requirements and hematological data. Univariate and multivariate analysis of risk factors for low COP (<15 mmHg) was performed. Forty-eight percent of patients had COP <15 mmHg at the end of bypass. Those patients had significantly lower COP before start of bypass, during, and at the end of the operation. Significant univariate predictors of low COP at the end of bypass were: lower patient weight; lower COP before start of bypass, lower priming COP and larger volume of cardioplegia received into the circulation. After multivariable analysis, lower patient COP before bypass remained the only significant predictor for low COP at the end of bypass. Pre-bypass crystalloid dilution during induction should be avoided, as this is the most important cause of low COP during the bypass. Priming COP and COP management strategy should be adapted to the individual patient demand. PMID:19188213

  15. The confounding effect of cryptic relatedness for environmental risks of systolic blood pressure on cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Shibata, Kyoko; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tamiya, Gen; Ueki, Masao; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Narimatsu, Hiroto; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Kato, Takeo; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa

    2013-01-01

    The impact of cryptic relatedness (CR) on genomic association studies is well studied and known to inflate false-positive rates as reported by several groups. In contrast, conventional epidemiological studies for environmental risks, the confounding effect of CR is still uninvestigated. In this study, we investigated the confounding effect of unadjusted CR among a rural cohort in the relationship between environmental risk factors (body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption) and systolic blood pressure. We applied the methods of population-based whole-genome association studies for the analysis of the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data in 1622 subjects, and detected 20.2% CR in this cohort population. In the case of the sample size, approximately 1000, the ratio of CR to the population was 20.2%, the population prevalence 25%, the prevalence in the CR 26%, heritability for liability 14.3% and prevalence in the subpopulation without CR 26%, the difference of estimated regression coefficient between samples with and without CR was not significant (P-value = 0.55). On the other hand, in another case with approximately >20% heritability for liability, we showed that confounding due to CR biased the estimation of exposure effects. PMID:24498600

  16. Genetic Variants in Novel Pathways Influence Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Blood pressure (BP) is a heritable trait1 influenced by multiple biological pathways and is responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (BP ≥140 mm Hg systolic [SBP] or ≥90 mm Hg diastolic [DBP])2. Even small increments in BP are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events3. This genome-wide association study of SBP and DBP, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified 16 novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate BP (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3; NPR3-C5orf23; ADM; FURIN-FES; GOSR2; GNAS-EDN3); the other 10 provide new clues to BP physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke, and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with BP in East Asian, South Asian, and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of BP, and suggest novel potential therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention. PMID:21909115

  17. Sex, the brain and hypertension: brain oestrogen receptors and high blood pressure risk factors.

    PubMed

    Hay, Meredith

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension is a major contributor to worldwide morbidity and mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. There are important sex differences in the onset and rate of hypertension in humans. Compared with age-matched men, premenopausal women are less likely to develop hypertension. However, after age 60, the incidence of hypertension increases in women and even surpasses that seen in older men. It is thought that changes in levels of circulating ovarian hormones as women age may be involved in the increase in hypertension in older women. One of the key mechanisms involved in the development of hypertension in both men and women is an increase in sympathetic nerve activity (SNA). Brain regions important for the regulation of SNA, such as the subfornical organ, the paraventricular nucleus and the rostral ventral lateral medulla, also express specific subtypes of oestrogen receptors. Each of these brain regions has also been implicated in mechanisms underlying risk factors for hypertension such as obesity, stress and inflammation. The present review brings together evidence that links actions of oestrogen at these receptors to modulate some of the common brain mechanisms involved in the ability of hypertensive risk factors to increase SNA and blood pressure. Understanding the mechanisms by which oestrogen acts at key sites in the brain for the regulation of SNA is important for the development of novel, sex-specific therapies for treating hypertension. PMID:26621877

  18. Use of a risk assessment method to improve the safety of negative pressure wound therapy.

    PubMed

    Lelong, Anne-Sophie; Martelli, Nicolas; Bonan, Brigitte; Prognon, Patrice; Pineau, Judith

    2014-06-01

    To conduct a risk analysis of the negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) care process and to improve the safety of NPWT, a working group of nurses, hospital pharmacists, physicians and hospital managers performed a risk analysis for the process of NPWT care. The failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) method was used for this analysis. Failure modes and their consequences were defined and classified as a function of their criticality to identify priority actions for improvement. By contrast to classical FMECA, the criticality index (CI) of each consequence was calculated by multiplying occurrence, severity and detection scores. We identified 13 failure modes, leading to 20 different consequences. The CI of consequences was initially 712, falling to 357 after corrective measures were implemented. The major improvements proposed included the establishment of 6-monthly training cycles for nurses, physicians and surgeons and the introduction of computerised prescription for NPWT. The FMECA method also made it possible to prioritise actions as a function of the criticality ranking of consequences and was easily understood and used by the working group. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to use the FMECA method to improve the safety of NPWT. PMID:22931525

  19. Salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what is the most adequate preventive strategy? A Swiss perspective

    PubMed Central

    Burnier, Michel; Wuerzner, Gregoire; Bochud, Murielle

    2015-01-01

    Among the various strategies to reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases reduction of sodium intake in the general population has been recognized as one of the most cost-effective means because of its potential impact on the development of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Yet, this strategic health recommendation of the WHO and many other international organizations is far from being universally accepted. Indeed, there are still several unresolved scientific and epidemiological questions that maintain an ongoing debate. Thus what is the adequate low level of sodium intake to recommend to the general population and whether national strategies should be oriented to the overall population or only to higher risk fractions of the population such as salt-sensitive patients are still discussed. In this paper, we shall review the recent results of the literature regarding salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk and we present the recommendations recently proposed by a group of experts of Switzerland. The propositions of the participating medical societies are to encourage national health authorities to continue their discussion with the food industry in order to reduce the sodium intake of food products with a target of mean salt intake of 5–6 grams per day in the population. Moreover, all initiatives to increase the information on the effect of salt on health and on the salt content of food are supported. PMID:26321959

  20. The confounding effect of cryptic relatedness for environmental risks of systolic blood pressure on cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Shibata, Kyoko; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tamiya, Gen; Ueki, Masao; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Narimatsu, Hiroto; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Kato, Takeo; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa

    2013-05-01

    The impact of cryptic relatedness (CR) on genomic association studies is well studied and known to inflate false-positive rates as reported by several groups. In contrast, conventional epidemiological studies for environmental risks, the confounding effect of CR is still uninvestigated. In this study, we investigated the confounding effect of unadjusted CR among a rural cohort in the relationship between environmental risk factors (body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption) and systolic blood pressure. We applied the methods of population-based whole-genome association studies for the analysis of the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data in 1622 subjects, and detected 20.2% CR in this cohort population. In the case of the sample size, approximately 1000, the ratio of CR to the population was 20.2%, the population prevalence 25%, the prevalence in the CR 26%, heritability for liability 14.3% and prevalence in the subpopulation without CR 26%, the difference of estimated regression coefficient between samples with and without CR was not significant (P-value = 0.55). On the other hand, in another case with approximately >20% heritability for liability, we showed that confounding due to CR biased the estimation of exposure effects. PMID:24498600

  1. Modeling biotic habitat high risk areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Despain, D.G.; Beier, P.; Tate, C.; Durtsche, B.M.; Stephens, T.

    2000-01-01

    Fire, especially stand replacing fire, poses a threat to many threatened and endangered species as well as their habitat. On the other hand, fire is important in maintaining a variety of successional stages that can be important for approach risk assessment to assist in prioritizing areas for allocation of fire mitigation funds. One example looks at assessing risk to the species and biotic communities of concern followed by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program. One looks at the risk to Mexican spottled owls. Another looks at the risk to cutthroat trout, and a fourth considers the general effects of fire and elk.

  2. Velocity and pressure characteristics of a model SSME high pressure fuel turbopump

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tse, D. G-N.; Sabnis, J. S.; Mcdonald, H.

    1991-01-01

    Under the present effort an experiment rig has been constructed, an instrumentation package developed and a series of mean and rms velocity and pressure measurements made in a turbopump which modelled the first stage of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Fuel Turbopump. The rig was designed so as to allow initial experiments with a single configuration consisting of a bell-mouth inlet, a flight impeller, a vaneless diffuser and a volute. Allowance was made for components such as inlet guide vanes, exit guide vanes, downstream pumps, etc. to be added in future experiments. This flexibility will provide a clear baseline set of experiments and allow evaluation in later experiments of the effect of adding specific components upon the pump performance properties. The rotational speed of the impeller was varied between 4260 and 7680 rpm which covered the range of scaled SSME rotation speeds when due allowance is made for the differing stagnation temperature, model to full scale. The results at the inlet obtained with rotational speeds of 4260, 6084 and 7680 rpm showed that the axial velocity at the bell-mouth inlet remained roughly constant at 2.2 of the bulk velocity at the exit of the turbopump near the center of the inlet, but it decreased rapidly with increasing radius at all three speeds. Reverse flow occurred at a radius greater than 0.9 R for all three speeds and the maximum negative velocity reduced from 1.3 of the bulk velocity at the exit of the turbopump at 4260 rpm to 0.35 at 7680 rpm, suggesting that operating at a speed closer to the design condition of 8700 rpm improved the inlet characteristics. The reverse flow caused positive prerotation at the impeller inlet which was negligibly small near the center but reached 0.7 of the impeller speed at the outer annulus. The results in the diffuser and the volute obtained at 7680 rpm show that the hub and shroud walls of the diffuser were characterized by regions of transient reverse flow with

  3. Digital models for arterial pressure and respiratory waveforms.

    PubMed

    Murthy, I S; Sita, G

    1993-08-01

    Digital models for arterial pressure pulse (APP) and respiratory volume waveforms (RVW) are proposed for efficient representation of these signals. When these signals are discrete cosine transformed (DCT), the pole-zero technique of Steiglitz-McBride (SM) gave system functions of much lower order than those obtained directly from the signals. The DCT of a bell-shaped biphasic wave needed two poles and two zeros. Based on this, the model order is fixed by the number of distinct peaks in the magnitude spectrum of the transformed APP/RVW signal. The partial fraction expansion (PFE) of the system function allowed delineation of component waves present in the time signal. The angles of model poles and zeros enabled easy determination of several important features from both of these signals. The model performance is evaluated using the normalized root mean-square error (NRMSE). A Bayes classifier using the pole angles as the feature vector performed satisfactorily when a limited number of RVW's recorded under deep and rapid maneuver are classified into normal (n) and abnormal (ab) categories of respiratory pathways. PMID:8258438

  4. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) as the reference standard for diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of vascular risk in adults.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Smolensky, Michael H; Ayala, Diana E; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    New information has become available since the ISC, AAMCC, and SECAC released their first extensive guidedelines to improve the diagnosis and treatment of adult arterial hypertension. A critical assessment of evidence and a comparison of what international guidelines now propose are the basis for the following statements, which update the recommendations first issued in 2013. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements should no longer be considered to be the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of cardiovascular risk. Relying on office BP, even when supplemented with at-home wake-time self-measurements, to identify high-risk individuals, disregarding circadian BP patterning and asleep BP level, leads to potential misclassification of 50% of all evaluated persons. Accordingly, ambulatory BP monitoring is the recommended reference standard for the diagnosis of true hypertension and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in all adults ≥18 yrs of age, regardless of whether office BP is normal or elevated. Asleep systolic BP mean is the most significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events. The sleep-time relative SBP decline adds prognostic value to the statistical model that already includes the asleep systolic BP mean and corrected for relevant confounding variables. Accordingly, the asleep systolic BP mean is the recommended protocol to diagnose hypertension, assess cardiovascular risk, and predict cardiovascular event-free interval. In men, and in the absence of compelling clinical conditions, reference thresholds for diagnosing hypertension are 120/70 mmHg for the asleep systolic/diastolic BP means derived from ambulatory BP monitoring. However, in women, in the absence of complicating co-morbidities, the same thresholds are lower by 10/5 mmHg, i.e., 110/65 mmHg for the asleep means. In high-risk patients, including those diagnosed with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and/or those having experienced past

  5. Modelling arterial pressure waveforms using Gaussian functions and two-stage particle swarm optimizer.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chengyu; Zhuang, Tao; Zhao, Lina; Chang, Faliang; Liu, Changchun; Wei, Shoushui; Li, Qiqiang; Zheng, Dingchang

    2014-01-01

    Changes of arterial pressure waveform characteristics have been accepted as risk indicators of cardiovascular diseases. Waveform modelling using Gaussian functions has been used to decompose arterial pressure pulses into different numbers of subwaves and hence quantify waveform characteristics. However, the fitting accuracy and computation efficiency of current modelling approaches need to be improved. This study aimed to develop a novel two-stage particle swarm optimizer (TSPSO) to determine optimal parameters of Gaussian functions. The evaluation was performed on carotid and radial artery pressure waveforms (CAPW and RAPW) which were simultaneously recorded from twenty normal volunteers. The fitting accuracy and calculation efficiency of our TSPSO were compared with three published optimization methods: the Nelder-Mead, the modified PSO (MPSO), and the dynamic multiswarm particle swarm optimizer (DMS-PSO). The results showed that TSPSO achieved the best fitting accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.1% for CAPW and 1.0% for RAPW, in comparison with 4.2% and 4.1% for Nelder-Mead, 2.0% and 1.9% for MPSO, and 1.2% and 1.1% for DMS-PSO. In addition, to achieve target MAE of 2.0%, the computation time of TSPSO was only 1.5 s, which was only 20% and 30% of that for MPSO and DMS-PSO, respectively. PMID:24967415

  6. Modelling Arterial Pressure Waveforms Using Gaussian Functions and Two-Stage Particle Swarm Optimizer

    PubMed Central

    Zhuang, Tao; Zhao, Lina; Chang, Faliang; Liu, Changchun; Wei, Shoushui; Li, Qiqiang

    2014-01-01

    Changes of arterial pressure waveform characteristics have been accepted as risk indicators of cardiovascular diseases. Waveform modelling using Gaussian functions has been used to decompose arterial pressure pulses into different numbers of subwaves and hence quantify waveform characteristics. However, the fitting accuracy and computation efficiency of current modelling approaches need to be improved. This study aimed to develop a novel two-stage particle swarm optimizer (TSPSO) to determine optimal parameters of Gaussian functions. The evaluation was performed on carotid and radial artery pressure waveforms (CAPW and RAPW) which were simultaneously recorded from twenty normal volunteers. The fitting accuracy and calculation efficiency of our TSPSO were compared with three published optimization methods: the Nelder-Mead, the modified PSO (MPSO), and the dynamic multiswarm particle swarm optimizer (DMS-PSO). The results showed that TSPSO achieved the best fitting accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.1% for CAPW and 1.0% for RAPW, in comparison with 4.2% and 4.1% for Nelder-Mead, 2.0% and 1.9% for MPSO, and 1.2% and 1.1% for DMS-PSO. In addition, to achieve target MAE of 2.0%, the computation time of TSPSO was only 1.5 s, which was only 20% and 30% of that for MPSO and DMS-PSO, respectively. PMID:24967415

  7. The Relationship of Retinal Vessel Diameters and Fractal Dimensions with Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qiaowei; Yuan, Yin; Gao, Zhonghai; Chen, Falin

    2014-01-01

    Background This study aimed to investigate the correlation between quantitative retinal vascular parameters such as central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) and retinal vascular fractal dimension (D(f)), and cardiovascular risk factors in the Chinese Han population residing in the in islands of southeast China. Methodology/Principle Findings In this cross-sectional study, fundus photographs were collected and semi-automated analysis software was used to analyze retinal vessel diameters and fractal dimensions. Cardiovascular risk factors such as relevant medical history, blood pressure (BP), lipids, and blood glucose data were collected. Subjects had a mean age of 51.9±12.0 years and included 812 (37.4%) males and 1,357 (62.6%) females. Of the subjects, 726 (33.5%) were overweight, 226 (10.4%) were obese, 272 (12.5%) had diabetes, 738 (34.0%) had hypertension, and 1,156 (53.3%) had metabolic syndrome. After controlling for the effects of potential confounders, multivariate analyses found that age (β = 0.06, P = 0.008), sex (β = 1.33, P = 0.015), mean arterial blood pressure (β = −0.12, P<0.001), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (β = −0.22, P = 0.008), and CRVE (β = 0.23, P<0.001) were significantly associated with CRAE. Age (β = −0.0012, P<0.001), BP classification (prehypertension: β = −0.0075, P = 0.014; hypertension: β = −0.0131, P = 0.002), and hypertension history (β = −0.0007, P = 0.009) were significantly associated with D(f). Conclusions/Significance D(f) exhibits a stronger association with BP than CRAE. Thus, D(f) may become a useful indicator of cardiovascular risk. PMID:25188273

  8. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e

  9. MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

  10. Development and Validation of a Pressurization System Model for a Crossfeed Subscale Water Test Article

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nguyen, Han; Mazurkivich, Pete

    2006-01-01

    A pressurization system model was developed for a crossfeed subscale water test article using the EASY5 modeling software. The model consisted of an integrated tank pressurization and pressurization line model. The tank model was developed using the general purpose library, while the line model was assembled from the gas dynamic library. The pressurization system model was correlated to water test data obtained from nine test runs conducted on the crossfeed subscale test article. The model was first correlated to a representative test run and frozen. The correlated model was then used to predict the tank pressures and compared with the test data for eight other runs. The model prediction showed excellent agreement with the test data, allowing it to be used in a later study to analyze the pressurization system performance of a full-scale bimese vehicle with cryogenic propellants.

  11. Oscillometric measurement of systolic and diastolic blood pressures validated in a physiologic mathematical model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The oscillometric method of measuring blood pressure with an automated cuff yields valid estimates of mean pressure but questionable estimates of systolic and diastolic pressures. Existing algorithms are sensitive to differences in pulse pressure and artery stiffness. Some are closely guarded trade secrets. Accurate extraction of systolic and diastolic pressures from the envelope of cuff pressure oscillations remains an open problem in biomedical engineering. Methods A new analysis of relevant anatomy, physiology and physics reveals the mechanisms underlying the production of cuff pressure oscillations as well as a way to extract systolic and diastolic pressures from the envelope of oscillations in any individual subject. Stiffness characteristics of the compressed artery segment can be extracted from the envelope shape to create an individualized mathematical model. The model is tested with a matrix of possible systolic and diastolic pressure values, and the minimum least squares difference between observed and predicted envelope functions indicates the best fit choices of systolic and diastolic pressure within the test matrix. Results The model reproduces realistic cuff pressure oscillations. The regression procedure extracts systolic and diastolic pressures accurately in the face of varying pulse pressure and arterial stiffness. The root mean squared error in extracted systolic and diastolic pressures over a range of challenging test scenarios is 0.3 mmHg. Conclusions A new algorithm based on physics and physiology allows accurate extraction of systolic and diastolic pressures from cuff pressure oscillations in a way that can be validated, criticized, and updated in the public domain. PMID:22913792

  12. Uses and Abuses of Models in Radiation Risk Management

    SciTech Connect

    Strom, Daniel J.

    1998-12-10

    This paper is a high-level overview of managing risks to workers, public, and the environment. It discusses the difference between a model and a hypothesis. The need for models in risk assessment is justified, and then it is shown that radiation risk models that are useable in risk management are highly simplistic. The weight of evidence is considered for and against the linear non-threshold (LNT) model for carcinogenesis and heritable ill-health that is currently the basis for radiation risk management. Finally, uses and misuses of this model are considered. It is concluded that the LNT model continues to be suitable for use as the basis for radiation protection.

  13. Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

    2008-12-01

    Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

  14. Building risk-on-a-chip models to improve breast cancer risk assessment and prevention

    PubMed Central

    Vidi, Pierre-Alexandre; Leary, James; Lelièvre, Sophie A.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Preventive actions for chronic diseases hold the promise of improving lives and reducing healthcare costs. For several diseases, including breast cancer, multiple risk and protective factors have been identified by epidemiologists. The impact of most of these factors has yet to be fully understood at the organism, tissue, cellular and molecular levels. Importantly, combinations of external and internal risk and protective factors involve cooperativity thus, synergizing or antagonizing disease onset. Models are needed to mechanistically decipher cancer risks under defined cellular and microenvironmental conditions. Here, we briefly review breast cancer risk models based on 3D cell culture and propose to improve risk modeling with lab-on-a-chip approaches. We suggest epithelial tissue polarity, DNA repair and epigenetic profiles as endpoints in risk assessment models and discuss the development of ‘risks-on-chips’ integrating biosensors of these endpoints and of general tissue homeostasis. Risks-on-chips will help identify biomarkers of risk, serve as screening platforms for cancer preventive agents, and provide a better understanding of risk mechanisms, hence resulting in novel developments in disease prevention. PMID:23681255

  15. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  16. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces. PMID:21571428

  17. Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

  18. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  19. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e

  20. Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

    PubMed

    Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. PMID:26010201

  1. Toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions modeling for pressurized liquefied gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britter, Rex; Weil, Jeffrey; Leung, Joseph; Hanna, Steven

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this article is to report current toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions formulas appropriate for use in atmospheric comprehensive risk assessment models so as to represent state-of-the-art knowledge. The focus is on high-priority scenarios, including two-phase releases of pressurized liquefied gases such as chlorine from rail cars. The total mass released and the release duration are major parameters, as well as the velocity, thermodynamic state, and amount and droplet sizes of imbedded aerosols of the material at the exit of the rupture, which are required as inputs to the subsequent jet and dispersion modeling. Because of the many possible release scenarios that could develop, a suite of model equations has been described. These allow for gas, two-phase or liquid storage and release through ruptures of various types including sharp-edged and "pipe-like" ruptures. Model equations for jet depressurization and phase change due to flashing are available. Consideration of the importance of vessel response to a rupture is introduced. The breakup of the jet into fine droplets and their subsequent suspension and evaporation, or rainout is still a significant uncertainty in the overall modeling process. The recommended models are evaluated with data from various TIC field experiments, in particular recent experiments with pressurized liquefied gases. It is found that there is typically a factor of two error in models compared with research-grade observations of mass flow rates. However, biases are present in models' estimates of the droplet size distributions resulting from flashing releases.

  2. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2016-03-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  3. A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

  4. New techniques for modeling the reliability of reactor pressure vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Simonen, E.P.

    1986-01-01

    In recent years several probabilistic fracture mechanics codes, including the VISA code, have been developed to predict the reliability of reactor pressure vessels. This paper describes several new modeling techniques used in a second generation of the VISA code entitled VISA-II. Results are presented that show the sensitivity of vessel reliability predictions to such factors as inservice inspection to detect flaws, random positioning of flaws within the vessel wall thickness, and fluence distributions that vary throughout the vessel. The algorithms used to implement these modeling techniques are also described. Other new options in VISA-II are also described in this paper. The effect of vessel cladding has been included in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics solutions in VISA-II. The algorithms for simulating flaws has been changed to consider an entire vessel rather than a single flaw in a single weld. The flaw distribution was changed to include the distribution of both flaw depth and length. A menu of several alternate equations has been included to predict the shift in RT/sub NDT/. For flaws that arrest and later re-initiate, an option was also included to allow correlating the current arrest toughness with subsequent initiation toughnesses.

  5. New techniques for modeling the reliability of reactor pressure vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Simonen, E.P.

    1985-12-01

    In recent years several probabilistic fracture mechanics codes, including the VISA code, have been developed to predict the reliability of reactor pressure vessels. This paper describes new modeling techniques used in a second generation of the VISA code entitled VISA-II. Results are presented that show the sensitivity of vessel reliability predictions to such factors as inservice inspection to detect flaws, random positioning of flaws within the vessel walls thickness, and fluence distributions that vary through-out the vessel. The algorithms used to implement these modeling techniques are also described. Other new options in VISA-II are also described in this paper. The effect of vessel cladding has been included in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics solutions in VISA-II. The algorithm for simulating flaws has been changed to consider an entire vessel rather than a single flaw in a single weld. The flaw distribution was changed to include the distribution of both flaw depth and length. A menu of several alternate equations has been included to predict the shift in RTNDT. For flaws that arrest and later re-initiate, an option was also included to allow correlating the current arrest thoughness with subsequent initiation toughnesses. 21 refs.

  6. Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.

    2005-04-01

    In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.

  7. A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

    PubMed

    Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-02-01

    The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example. PMID:19000078

  8. School-Based Exercise to Lower Blood Pressure in High-Risk African American Girls: Project Design and Baseline Findings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewart, Craig K.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Describes effective methods for identifying and recruiting high risk African American ninth-grade girls to measure their fitness and assess the impact of fitness training on blood pressure. A multistage step test for fitness assessment in such girls is presented. The "Project Heart" aerobics class and control groups are described. (SM)

  9. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED)...

  10. Identity Development as a Buffer of Adolescent Risk Behaviors in the Context of Peer Group Pressure and Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dumas, Tara M.; Ellis, Wendy E.; Wolfe, David A.

    2012-01-01

    We examined identity development as a moderator of the relation between peer group pressure and control and adolescents' engagement in risk behaviors. Participants (n = 1070; M[subscript age] = 15.45 years) completed a self-report measure of "identity exploration", the degree to which they have explored a variety of self-relevant values, beliefs…

  11. Linking Self-Regulation and Risk Proneness to Risky Sexual Behavior: Pathways through Peer Pressure and Early Substance Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crockett, Lisa J.; Raffaelli, Marcela; Shen, Yuh-Ling

    2006-01-01

    The linkages between self-regulation in childhood, risk proneness in early adolescence, and risky sexual behavior in mid-adolescence were examined in a cohort of children (N=518) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The possible mediating role of two early adolescent variables (substance use and negative peer pressure) was also…

  12. The effects of vehicle model and driver behavior on risk.

    PubMed

    Wenzel, Thomas P; Ross, Marc

    2005-05-01

    We study the dependence of risk on vehicle type and especially on vehicle model. Here, risk is measured by the number of driver fatalities per year per million vehicles registered. We analyze both the risk to the drivers of each vehicle model and the risk the vehicle model imposes on drivers of other vehicles with which it crashes. The "combined risk" associated with each vehicle model is simply the sum of the risk-to-drivers in all kinds of crashes and the risk-to-drivers-of-other-vehicles in two-vehicle crashes. We find that most car models are as safe to their drivers as most sport utility vehicles (SUVs); the increased risk of a rollover in a SUV roughly balances the higher risk for cars that collide with SUVs and pickup trucks. We find that SUVs and to a greater extent pickup trucks, impose much greater risks than cars on drivers of other vehicles; and these risks increase with increasing pickup size. The higher aggressivity of SUVs and pickups makes their combined risk higher than that of almost all cars. Effects of light truck design on their risk are revealed by the analysis of specific models: new unibody (or "crossover") SUVs appear, in preliminary analysis, to have much lower risks than the most popular truck-based SUVs. Much has been made in the past about the high risk of low-mass cars in certain kinds of collisions. We find there are other plausible explanations for this pattern of risk, which suggests that mass may not be fundamental to safety. While not conclusive, this is potentially important because improvement in fuel economy is a major goal for designers of new vehicles. We find that accounting for the most risky drivers, young males and the elderly, does not change our general results. Similarly, we find with California data that the high risk of rural driving and the high level of rural driving by pickups does not increase the risk-to-drivers of pickups relative to that for cars. However, other more subtle differences in drivers and the

  13. A functional PCA model for the study of time series of pressure maps.

    PubMed

    Chicote, Juan C; Durá, Juan V; Belda, Juan M; Poveda, Rakel

    2013-04-01

    Principal component analysis and functional regression are combined in a model to analyze a time series of pressure maps. The model is tested measuring the pressures over a chair seat while a subject performs a combination of simple movements. A sampling rate of 3 Hz is adequate for applying the model in sitting postures. The model is able to detect patterns of movement over time, although more variables are necessary if the movements produce similar pressure distributions. PMID:23645485

  14. Development of a Pressure-Dependent Constitutive Model with Combined Multilinear Kinematic and Isotropic Hardening

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen Phillip A.; Wilson, Christopher D.

    2003-01-01

    The development of a pressure-dependent constitutive model with combined multilinear kinematic and isotropic hardening is presented. The constitutive model is developed using the ABAQUS user material subroutine (UMAT). First the pressure-dependent plasticity model is derived. Following this, the combined bilinear and combined multilinear hardening equations are developed for von Mises plasticity theory. The hardening rule equations are then modified to include pressure dependency. The method for implementing the new constitutive model into ABAQUS is given.

  15. Chronotherapy with conventional blood pressure medications improves management of hypertension and reduces cardiovascular and stroke risks.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Ayala, Diana E; Smolensky, Michael H; Fernández, José R; Mojón, Artemio; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2016-05-01

    Correlation between blood pressure (BP) and target organ damage, vascular risk and long-term patient prognosis is greater for measurements derived from around-the-clock ambulatory BP monitoring than in-clinic daytime ones. Numerous studies consistently substantiate the asleep BP mean is both an independent and a much better predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk than either the awake or 24 h means. Sleep-time hypertension is much more prevalent than suspected, not only in patients with sleep disorders, but also among those who are elderly or have type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease or resistant hypertension. Hence, cost-effective adequate control of sleep-time BP is of marked clinical relevance. Ingestion time, according to circadian rhythms, of hypertension medications of six different classes and their combinations significantly affects BP control, particularly sleep-time BP, and adverse effects. For example, because the high-amplitude circadian rhythm of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system activates during nighttime sleep, bedtime vs. morning ingestion of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers better reduces the asleep BP mean, with additional benefit, independent of medication terminal half-life, of converting the 24 h BP profile into more normal dipper patterning. The MAPEC (Monitorización Ambulatoria para Predicción de Eventos Cardiovasculares) study, first prospective randomized treatment-time investigation designed to test the worthiness of bedtime chronotherapy with ⩾1 conventional hypertension medications so as to specifically target attenuation of asleep BP, demonstrated, relative to conventional morning therapy, 61% reduction of total CVD events and 67% decrease of major CVD events, that is, CVD death, myocardial infarction, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. The MAPEC study, along with other earlier conducted less refined trials, documents the asleep BP mean is the most significant

  16. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    SciTech Connect

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors.

  17. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in diabetes for the assessment and control of vascular risk.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Moyá, Ana; Ayala, Diana E

    2015-10-01

    The diagnosis of hypertension and the clinical decisions regarding its treatment are usually based on daytime clinic blood pressure (BP) measurements. However, the correlation between BP levels and target organ damage, cardiovascular (CV) risk, and long-term prognosis, is higher for ambulatory (ABPM) than clinic measurements, both in the general population as well as in patients with diabetes. Moreover, there is consistent evidence in numerous studies that the asleep BP better predicts CV events than either the awake or 24h means. The prevalence of abnormal BP pattern and sleep-time hypertension is extensive in diabetes, often leading to inaccurate diagnoses of hypertension and its therapeutic control in the absence of complete and careful assessment of the entire 24h, i.e., daytime and night-time, BP pattern. Accordingly, ABPM should be the preferred method to comprehensively assess and decide the optimal clinical management of patients with diabetes directed to properly reduce elevated sleep-time BP, which might also lead to a significant reduction of CV events. PMID:26404624

  18. Design and research on reliability-validity for 3S intraoperative risk assessment scale of pressure sore.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xing-lian; Hu, Juan-juan; Ma, Qiong; Wu, He-yu; Wang, Zeng-yan; Li, Ting-ting; Shen, Jian-hui; Yang, Ying

    2015-04-01

    The reliability and validity of risk assessment scale (RAS) of pressure sore during 3S surgery were investigated. RAS of pressure sore was designed independently during 3S surgery. Five operating room nursing experts were selected to consult and detect face validity. Convenient and purposive sampling of 707 samples was conducted. Cronbach's alpha was used to measure content reliability and evaluate the internal consistence of RAS. The structural reliability was investigated by exploratory factor analysis method. The results showed that the content validity index was 0.92, and Cronbach's alpha of content reliability was 0.71. Structural validity, detected by Bartlett sphericity test, was 135.3 for 707 samples with the difference being statistically significant (P<0.01). KMO value was 0.729. The accumulative variance contribution ratio of common factor was 64.63%. The exploratory factor analysis showed the factor load of every clause was larger than 0.596. It was concluded that RAS of pressure sore for 3S surgery has better validity and reliability, and it could be used for evaluating and screening the high risk patients with pressure sores during surgery in order to efficiently reduce the occurrence of pressure sore during surgery. RAS of pressure sore for 3S surgery is worth to be popularized. PMID:25877367

  19. Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury.

    PubMed

    Khanzode, Vivek V; Maiti, J; Ray, P K

    2011-06-01

    Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a work system and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a work system. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coal mine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across work systems. PMID:21432706

  20. Targets and self-management for the control of blood pressure in stroke and at risk groups (TASMIN-SR): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Self-monitoring of hypertension with self-titration of antihypertensives (self-management) results in lower systolic blood pressure for at least one year. However, few people in high risk groups have been evaluated to date and previous work suggests a smaller effect size in these groups. This trial therefore aims to assess the added value of self-management in high risk groups over and above usual care. Methods/Design The targets and self-management for the control of blood pressure in stroke and at risk groups (TASMIN-SR) trial will be a pragmatic primary care based, unblinded, randomised controlled trial of self-management of blood pressure (BP) compared to usual care. Eligible patients will have a history of stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes or chronic kidney disease and will be recruited from primary care. Participants will be individually randomised to either usual care or self-management. The primary outcome of the trial will be difference in office SBP between intervention and control groups at 12 months adjusted for baseline SBP and covariates. 540 patients will be sufficient to detect a difference in SBP between self-management and usual care of 5 mmHg with 90% power. Secondary outcomes will include self-efficacy, lifestyle behaviours, health-related quality of life and adverse events. An economic analysis will consider both within trial costs and a model extrapolating the results thereafter. A qualitative analysis will gain insights into patients’ views, experiences and decision making processes. Discussion The results of the trial will be directly applicable to primary care in the UK. If successful, self-management of blood pressure in people with stroke and other high risk conditions would be applicable to many hundreds of thousands of individuals in the UK and beyond. Trial Registration ISRCTN87171227 PMID:23522245

  1. Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, James

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

  2. A software quality model and metrics for risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hyatt, L.; Rosenberg, L.

    1996-01-01

    A software quality model and its associated attributes are defined and used as the model for the basis for a discussion on risk. Specific quality goals and attributes are selected based on their importance to a software development project and their ability to be quantified. Risks that can be determined by the model's metrics are identified. A core set of metrics relating to the software development process and its products is defined. Measurements for each metric and their usability and applicability are discussed.

  3. Proposal of RAS-diuretic vs. RAS-calcium antagonist strategies in high-risk hypertension: insight from the 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profile and central pressure.

    PubMed

    Kario, Kazuomi

    2010-01-01

    I here propose an individualized renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor-based combination therapy with calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) or with diuretics, based on the 24-hr ambulatory blood pressure (BP) profiles and central pressure in relation to the target organ damage in high-risk hypertensive patients. For high-risk patients with increased circulating volume, such as that caused by chronic kidney disease (CKD) or congestive heart failure (CHF), who are likely to exhibit a non-dipper/riser pattern of nocturnal BP fall, diuretics are recommended in combination with a RAS inhibitor to reduce nocturnal BP preferentially. For high-risk patients with arterial diseases such as cardiovascular disease and increased arterial stiffness, who are likely to exhibit exaggerated BP variability, such as morning BP surge and day-to-day BP variability, a CCB is recommended for use in combination with a RAS inhibitor to reduce BP variability and central BP. In particular, bedtime dosing of a RAS inhibitor targeting sleep-early morning activation of RAS may be particularly effective for cardiorenal protection. PMID:20728424

  4. HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELING FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    US EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) has identified cumulative risk assessment as a priority research area. This is because humans and other organisms are exposed to a multitude of chemicals, physical agents, and other stressors through multiple pathways, routes, an...

  5. Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

  6. Assessing complexity of skin blood flow oscillations in response to locally applied heating and pressure in rats: Implications for pressure ulcer risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Fuyuan; O'Brien, William D.; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of local heating on the complexity of skin blood flow oscillations (BFO) under prolonged surface pressure in rats. Eleven Sprague-Dawley rats were studied: 7 rats underwent surface pressure with local heating (△t=10 °C) and 4 rats underwent pressure without heating. A pressure of 700 mmHg was applied to the right trochanter area of rats for 3 h. Skin blood flow was measured using laser Doppler flowmetry. The loading period was divided into nonoverlapping 30 min epochs. For each epoch, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) was utilized to compute DFA coefficients and complexity of endothelial related metabolic, neurogenic, and myogenic frequencies of BFO. The results showed that under surface pressure, local heating led to a significant decrease in DFA coefficients of myogenic frequency during the initial epoch of loading period, a sustained decrease in complexity of myogenic frequency, and a significantly higher degree of complexity of metabolic frequency during the later phase of loading period. Surrogate tests showed that the reduction in complexity of myogenic frequency was associated with a loss of nonlinearity whereas increased complexity of metabolic frequency was associated with enhanced nonlinearity. Our results indicate that increased metabolic activity and decreased myogenic response due to local heating manifest themselves not only in magnitudes of metabolic and myogenic frequencies but also in their structural complexity. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using complexity analysis of BFO to monitor the ischemic status of weight-bearing skin and risk of pressure ulcers.

  7. User`s guide for the Simplified Risk Model (SRM)

    SciTech Connect

    Peatross, R.G.; Eide, S.A.

    1996-10-01

    SRM can be used to quickly compare relative values relating to risk for many environmental management activities or alternatives at US DOE sites. Purpose of this guide is to provide the user with the essential values and decision points for each model variable. The numerical results are useful for ranking and screening purposes and should not be compared directly against absolute risk numerical results such as in CERCLA baseline risk assessments or Safety Analysis Reports. Implementing the SRM entails performing several preliminary steps, selecting values of the risk elements, calculating the risk equations, and checking the results. SRM considers two types of waste management states: inactive (rest) and active (transition). SRM considers risk from exposures to radionuclides and hazardous chemicals, as well as industrial hazards; however this user`s guide does not cover risk from industrial hazards (Section 10 of Eide et al. (1996) must be consulted).

  8. Physical activity levels and torso orientations of hospitalized patients at risk of developing a pressure injury: an observational study.

    PubMed

    Chaboyer, Wendy; Mills, Peter M; Roberts, Shelley; Latimer, Sharon

    2015-02-01

    Pressure injury guidelines recommend regular repositioning yet patients' mobility and repositioning patterns are unknown. An observational study using activity monitors was undertaken to describe the 24 h activity patterns of 84 hospitalized patients at risk of developing a pressure injury. The vast majority of participants' time was spent in the sedentary activity range (94% ± 3%) followed by the light range (5% ± 4 %). Patients changed their posture a median of 94 (interquartile range 48) time in the 24-h period (range 11-154), or ≈ 3.8 times per hour. Although a main focus for pressure injury prevention has been on repositioning, this study shows that patients with restricted mobility are actually moving quite often. Therefore, it might be appropriate to focus more attention on other pressure injury prevention strategies such as adequate nutrition, appropriate support surfaces and good skin care. PMID:24118408

  9. Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Mathur, Rohini; Dent, Tom; Meads, Catherine; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2011-01-01

    Objective To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an

  10. Modeling Pressure-Driven Transport of Proteins through a Nanochannel

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Rogan; Comer, Jeffrey; Ginsberg, Mark D.; Aksimentiev, Aleksei

    2012-01-01

    Reducing the size of a nanofluidic channel not only creates new opportunities for high-precision manipulation of biological macromolecules, but also makes the performance of the entire nanofluidic system more susceptible to undesirable interactions between the transported biomolecules and the walls of the channel. In this manuscript, we report molecular dynamics simulations of a pressure-driven flow through a silica nanochannel that characterized, with atomic resolution, adsorption of a model protein to its surface. Although the simulated adsorption of the proteins was found to be nonspecific, it had a dramatic effect on the rate of the protein transport. To determine the relative strength of the protein–silica interactions in different adsorbed states, we simulated flow-induced desorption of the proteins from the silica surface. Our analysis of the protein conformations in the adsorbed states did not reveal any simple dependence of the adsorption strength on the size and composition of the protein–silica contact, suggesting that the heterogeneity of the silica surface may be a important factor. PMID:22611338

  11. Grazing bifurcations and chatter in a pressure relief valve model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hős, Csaba; Champneys, Alan R.

    2012-11-01

    This paper considers a simple mechanical model of a pressure relief valve. For a wide region of parameter values, the valve undergoes self-oscillations that involve impact with the valve seat. These oscillations are born in a Hopf bifurcation that can be either super- or sub-critical. In either case, the onset of more complex oscillations is caused by the occurrence of grazing bifurcations, where the limit cycle first becomes tangent to the discontinuity surface that represents valve contact. The complex dynamics that ensues from such points as the flow speed is decreased has previously been reported via brute-force bifurcation diagrams. Here, the nature of the transitions is further elucidated via the numerical continuation of impacting orbits. In addition, two-parameter continuation results for Hopf and grazing bifurcations as well as the continuation of period-doubling bifurcations of impacting orbits are presented. For yet lower flow speeds, new results reveal chattering motion, that is where there are many impacts in a finite time interval. The geometry of the chattering region is analysed via the computation of several pre-images of the grazing set. It is shown how these pre-images organise the dynamics, in particular by separating initial conditions that lead to complete chatter (an accumulation of impacts) from those which do not.

  12. The PRIMROSE cardiovascular risk prediction models for people with severe mental illness

    PubMed Central

    Osborn, David PJ; Hardoon, Sarah; Omar, Rumana Z; Holt, Richard IG; King, Michael; Larsen, John; Marston, Louise; Morris, Richard W; Nazareth, Irwin; Walters, Kate; Petersen, Irene

    2015-01-01

    Importance People with Severe Mental Illness (SMI) including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder have excess cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction models, validated for the general population, may not accurately estimate cardiovascular risk in this group. Objectives To develop and validate a risk model exclusive to predicting CVD events in people with SMI, using established cardiovascular risk factors and additional variables. Design Prospective cohort and risk score development study. Setting UK Primary care Participants 38,824 people with a diagnosis of SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or other non-organic psychosis) aged 30-90 years. Median follow-up 5.6 years with 2,324 CVD events (6%). Main outcomes and measures Ten year risk of first cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, cerebrovascular accidents or major coronary surgery). Predictors included age, gender, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index (BMI), lipid profile, social deprivation, SMI diagnosis, prescriptions of antidepressant , antipsychotics and reports of heavy alcohol use. Results We developed two risk models for people with SMI: The PRIMROSE BMI model and a lipid model. These mutually excluded lipids and BMI. From cross-validations, in terms of discrimination, for men, the PRIMROSE lipid model D statistic was 1.92 (1.80-2.03) and C statistic was 0.80 (0.76-0.83) compared to 1.74 (1.54-1.86) and 0.78 (0.75-0.82) for published Framingham risk scores; in women corresponding results were 1.87 (1.76-1.98) and 0.80 (0.76-0.83) for the PRIMROSE lipid model and 1.58 (1.48-1.68) and 0.76 (0.72-0.80) for Framingham. Discrimination statistics for the PRIMROSE BMI model were comparable to those for the PRIMROSE lipid model. Calibration plots suggested that both PRIMROSE models were superior to the Framingham models. Conclusion and relevance The PRIMROSE BMI and lipid CVD risk prediction models performed better in SMI than models which only

  13. An empirical mixing model for pressurized thermal shock applications

    SciTech Connect

    Chexal, V.K.; Chao, J.; Griesbach, T.J.; Nickell, R.E.

    1985-04-01

    Empirical correlations are developed for the local temperature and velocity distributions in the pressurized water reactor downcomer for pressurized thermal shock scenarios. The correlation is based on Creare test data and has been validated with Science Applications, Inc., experiments and COMMIX code calculations. It provides good agreement under pump flow and natural circulation conditions and gives a conservative estimate under stagnation conditions.

  14. Multi-dimensional modeling of pressurization and expulsion of multi-phase hydrogen propellant

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    A multidimensional computational model of the pressurization process in a slush hydrogen propellant storage tank was developed and its accuracy evaluated by comparison to experimental data measured for a 5 ft diameter spherical tank. The fluid mechanic, thermodynamic, and heat transfer processes within the ullage are represented by a finite-volume model. the heat and mass fluxes at the ullage boundary were computed in auxiliary analyses and specified as input to the finite-volume model. the model was shown to be in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. A parameter study was undertaken to examine the dependence of the pressurization process on initial ullage temperature distribution and pressurant mass flow rate. It is shown that for a given heat flux rate at the ullage boundary, the pressurization process is nearly independent of initial temperature distribution. The mass flow rate study revealed decreasing pressurant mass requirements with increasing pressurant mass flow rate. Further, significant differences were identified between the ullage temperature and velocity fields predicted for pressurization of slush and those predicted for pressurization of liquid hydrogen. A simplified model of the pressurization process was constructed in search of a dimensionless characterization of the pressurization process. It is shown that the relationship derived from this simplified model collapses all of the pressure history data generated during this study into a single curve.

  15. X-33 Metal Model Testing In Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The countrys next generation of space transportation, a reusable launch vehicle (RLV), continues to undergo wind tunnel testing at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. All four photos are a metal model of the X-33 reusable launch vehicle (about 15 inches long by 15 inches wide) being tested for Lockheed Martin Skunk Works in the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) at NASA Langley Research Center. Tests are being conducted by members of the Aerothermodynamics Branch. According to Kelly Murphy of Langleys Aerothermodynamics Branch, the aluminum and stainless steel model of the X-33 underwent aerodynamic testing in the tunnel. *The subsonic tests were conducted at the speed of Mach .25,* she said. *Force and moment testing and measurement in this tunnel lasted about one week.* Future testing of the metal model is scheduled for Langleys 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel, from the end of March to mid-April 1997, and the Unitary Wind Tunnel, from mid-April to the beginning of May. Other tunnel testing for X-33 models are scheduled from the present through June in the hypersonic tunnels, and the 14- by 22-Foot Tunnel from about mid-June to mid-July. Since 1991 Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. has been the lead center for coordinating the Agencys X-33 Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, an industry-led effort, which NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin has declared the agency's highest priority new program. The RLV Technology Program is a partnership among NASA, the United States Air Force and private industry to develop world leadership in low-cost space transportation. The goal of the program is to develop technologies and new operational concepts that can radically reduce the cost of access to space. The RLV program also hopes to speed the commercialization of space and improve U.S. economic competitiveness by making access to space as routine and reliable as today's airline industry, while reducing costs and enhancing safety and reliability. The RLV

  16. X-33 Metal Model Testing In Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The countrys next generation of space transportation, a reusable launch vehicle (RLV), continues to undergo wind tunnel testing at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. All four photos are a metal model of the X-33 reusable launch vehicle (about 15 inches long by 15 inches wide) being tested for Lockheed Martin Skunk Works in the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) at NASA Langley Research Center. Tests are being conducted by members of the Aerothermodynamics Branch. According to Kelly Murphy of Langleys Aerothermodynamics Branch, the aluminum and stainless steel model of the X-33 underwent aerodynamic testing in the tunnel. *The subsonic tests were conducted at the speed of Mach 25,* she said. *Force and moment testing and measurement in this tunnel lasted about one week.* Future testing of the metal model is scheduled for Langleys 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel, from the end of March to mid-April 1997, and the Unitary Wind Tunnel, from mid-April to the beginning of May. Other tunnel testing for X-33 models are scheduled from the present through June in the hypersonic tunnels, and the 14- by 22-Foot Tunnel from about mid-June to mid-July. Since 1991 Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. has been the lead center for coordinating the Agencys X-33 Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, an industry-led effort, which NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin has declared the agency's highest priority new program. The RLV Technology Program is a partnership among NASA, the United States Air Force and private industry to develop world leadership in low-cost space transportation. The goal of the program is to develop technologies and new operational concepts that can radically reduce the cost of access to space. The RLV program also hopes to speed the commercialization of space and improve U.S. economic competitiveness by making access to space as routine and reliable as today's airline industry, while reducing costs and enhancing safety and reliability. The RLV

  17. State-of-Art Empirical Modeling of Ring Current Plasma Pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, C.; Ma, Q.; Wang, C. P.; Bortnik, J.; Thorne, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The plasma pressure in the inner magnetosphere plays a key role in plasma dynamics by changing magnetic field configurations and generating the ring current. In this study, we present our preliminary results of empirically constructing 2D equatorial ring current pressure and pressure anisotropy spatial distributions controlled by Dst based on measurements from two particle instruments (HOPE and RBSPICE) onboard Van Allen Probes. We first obtain the equatorial plasma perpendicular and parallel pressures for different species including H+, He+, O+ and e- from 20 eV to ~1 MeV, and investigate their relative contributions to the total plasma pressure and pressure anisotropy. We then establish empirical equatorial pressure models within ~ 6 RE using a state-of-art machine learning technique, Support Vector Regression Machine (SVRM). The pressure models predict equatorial perpendicular and parallel plasma thermal pressures (for each species and for total pressures) and pressure anisotropy at any given r, MLT, Bz/Br (equivalent Z distance), and Dst within applicable ranges. We are currently validating our model predictions and investigating how the ring current pressure distributions and the associated pressure gradients vary with Dst index.

  18. Frailty Models for Familial Risk with Application to Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-12-01

    In evaluating familial risk for disease we have two main statistical tasks: assessing the probability of carrying an inherited genetic mutation conferring higher risk; and predicting the absolute risk of developing diseases over time, for those individuals whose mutation status is known. Despite substantial progress, much remains unknown about the role of genetic and environmental risk factors, about the sources of variation in risk among families that carry high-risk mutations, and about the sources of familial aggregation beyond major Mendelian effects. These sources of heterogeneity contribute substantial variation in risk across families. In this paper we present simple and efficient methods for accounting for this variation in familial risk assessment. Our methods are based on frailty models. We implemented them in the context of generalizing Mendelian models of cancer risk, and compared our approaches to others that do not consider heterogeneity across families. Our extensive simulation study demonstrates that when predicting the risk of developing a disease over time conditional on carrier status, accounting for heterogeneity results in a substantial improvement in the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. On the other hand, the improvement for carriership probability estimation is more limited. We illustrate the utility of the proposed approach through the analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers in the Washington Ashkenazi Kin-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer. PMID:24678132

  19. A risk analysis model in concurrent engineering product development.

    PubMed

    Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui

    2010-09-01

    Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company. PMID:20840492

  20. In-line pressure-flow module for in vitro modelling of haemodynamics and biosensor validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koenig, S. C.; Schaub, J. D.; Ewert, D. L.; Swope, R. D.; Convertino, V. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1997-01-01

    An in-line pressure-flow module for in vitro modelling of haemodynamics and biosensor validation has been developed. Studies show that good accuracy can be achieved in the measurement of pressure and of flow, in steady and pulstile flow systems. The model can be used for development, testing and evaluation of cardiovascular-mechanical-electrical anlogue models, cardiovascular prosthetics (i.e. valves, vascular grafts) and pressure and flow biosensors.

  1. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  2. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  3. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  4. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-04-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  5. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Competing Risk Regression Models for Epidemiologic Data

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Stephen R.; Gange, Stephen J.

    2009-01-01

    Competing events can preclude the event of interest from occurring in epidemiologic data and can be analyzed by using extensions of survival analysis methods. In this paper, the authors outline 3 regression approaches for estimating 2 key quantities in competing risks analysis: the cause-specific relative hazard (csRH) and the subdistribution relative hazard (sdRH). They compare and contrast the structure of the risk sets and the interpretation of parameters obtained with these methods. They also demonstrate the use of these methods with data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study established in 1993, treating time to initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy or to clinical disease progression as competing events. In our example, women with an injection drug use history were less likely than those without a history of injection drug use to initiate therapy prior to progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death by both measures of association (csRH = 0.67, 95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.80 and sdRH = 0.60, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.71). Moreover, the relative hazards for disease progression prior to treatment were elevated (csRH = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.13 and sdRH = 2.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.62, 2.51). Methods for competing risks should be used by epidemiologists, with the choice of method guided by the scientific question. PMID:19494242

  7. First experience with a new negative pressure incision management system on surgical incisions after cardiac surgery in high risk patients

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Sternal wound infection remains a serious potential complication after cardiac surgery. A recent development for preventing wound complications after surgery is the adjunctive treatment of closed incisions with negative pressure wound therapy. Suggested mechanisms of preventive action are improving the local blood flow, removing fluids and components in these fluids, helping keep the incision edges together, protecting the wound from external contamination and promoting incision healing. This work reports on our initial evaluation and clinical experience with the Prevena™Incision Management System, a recently introduced new negative pressure wound therapy system specifically developed for treating closed surgical incisions and helping prevent potential complications. We evaluated the new treatment on sternal surgical incisions in patients with multiple co-morbidities and consequently a high risk for wound complications. Methods The Prevena™incision management system was used in 10 patients with a mean Fowler risk score of 15.1 [Range 8-30]. The negative pressure dressing was applied immediately after surgery and left in place for 5 days with a continuous application of -125 mmHg negative pressure. Wounds and surrounding skin were inspected immediately after removal of the Prevena™ incision management system and at day 30 after surgery. Results Wounds and surrounding skin showed complete wound healing with the absence of skin lesions due to the negative pressure after removal of the Prevena™ dressing. No device-related complications were observed. No wound complications occurred in this high risk group of patients until at least 30 days after surgery. Conclusions The Prevena™system appears to be safe, easy to use and may help achieve uncomplicated wound healing in patients at risk of developing wound complications after cardiothoracic surgery. PMID:22145641

  8. Changing the "Normal Range" for Blood Pressure from 140/90 to 130/Any Improves Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Redefine the "normal" reference range for blood pressure from <140/90 to one that more effectively identifies individuals with increased mortality risk. Method .- Data from the recently published 2014 CRL blood pressure study was used. It includes 2,472,706 life insurance applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File. Various upper limits of blood pressure (BP in mm Hg) were evaluated to determine if any was superior to the current, commonly used limit of 140/90 in identifying individuals with increased mortality risk. Results .- An alternative reference range using a systolic BP (SBP) <130 with any diastolic BP (DBP) included 84% of life insurance applicants. It had a lower mortality rate and narrower range of relative risk than <140/90, including 89% as many applicants but only 68% as many deaths. This pattern of lives and deaths was consistent across age and sex. Conclusion .- Switching to a "normal" reference range of SBP <130 offers superior risk assessment relative to using BP <140/90 while still including a sufficient percentage of the population. PMID:27584806

  9. Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

  10. A new pressure formulation for gas-compressibility dampening in bubble dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Gadi Man, Yezaz Ahmed; Trujillo, Francisco J

    2016-09-01

    We formulated a pressure equation for bubbles performing nonlinear radial oscillations under ultrasonic high pressure amplitudes. The proposed equation corrects the gas pressure at the gas-liquid interface on inertial bubbles. This pressure formulation, expressed in terms of gas-Mach number, accounts for dampening due to gas compressibility during the violent collapse of cavitation bubbles and during subsequent rebounds. We refer to this as inhomogeneous pressure, where the gas pressure at the gas-liquid interface can differ to the pressure at the centre of the bubble, in contrast to homogenous pressure formulations that consider that pressure inside the bubble is spatially uniform from the wall to the centre. The pressure correction was applied to two bubble dynamic models: the incompressible Rayleigh-Plesset equation and the compressible Keller and Miksis equation. This improved the predictions of the nonlinear radial motion of the bubble vs time obtained with both models. Those simulations were also compared with other bubble dynamics models that account for liquid and gas compressibility effects. It was found that our corrected models are in closer agreement with experimental data than alternative models. It was concluded that the Rayleigh-Plesset family of equations improve accuracy by using our proposed pressure correction. PMID:27150768

  11. CODE's new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, D.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.; Dach, R.; Schaer, S.; Lutz, S.; Prange, L.; Sośnica, K.; Mervart, L.; Jäggi, A.

    2015-08-01

    The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009-2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft's solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which

  12. Evaluation of pressure extracted from NCEP and CMC global numerical weather prediction models against in-situ and GPT pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAdam, M.; Chai, N.; Santos, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    An earlier investigation by Urquhart et al (2011) demonstrated that ray traced hydrostatic zenith delays from NCEP's Re-Analysis I (NCEP) dataset proved to exhibit higher variability when compared to those from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's (CMC) Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). This investigation expands on the original by analyzing the variation of the zenith hydrostatic delay (as ray traced through the NWP) and the extracted pressure at the surface for 35 IGS reference stations for the entire year of 2010. Two NWP's were selected, NCEP's Re-Analysis I and CMC's GDPS. NCEP was selected since it forms the basis for the UNB-VMF1 service, and CMC's GDPS was selected due to availability. Both models have global coverage, but NCEP's grid resolution is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees as compared to CMC's (GDPS) 0.6 x 0.6 degrees. The location within the NWP is defined by the location of the IGS reference stations. The position of the reference stations are defined by the IGS weekly solutions where week 52's coordinate values for the year 2010 were used. The height was then adjusted by the defined meteorological sensor offset as defined the IGS stations's respective log. The investigation is based on the following comparisons: 1. Extracted Pressure from the NWP (NCEP and CMC (GDPS)) compared to measured pressure from the site, and also from pressure derived from GPT model. 2. Raytraced hydrostatic zenith delay compared to the Saastamoinen hydrostatic zenith computed from the measured site pressure. Results indicate good agreement between pressure extracted from the NWP and in-situ pressure and larger differences with respect to GPT.

  13. Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission Risk Map of India, Based on a Geo-Environmental Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Sabesan, Shanmugavelu; Raju, Konuganti Hari Kishan; Srivastava, Pradeep Kumar; Jambulingam, Purushothaman

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The strategy adopted by a global program to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is mass drug administration (MDA) using chemotherapy. India also followed this strategy by introducing MDA in the historically known endemic areas. All other areas, which remained unsurveyed, were presumed to be nonendemic and left without any intervention. Therefore, identification of LF transmission risk areas in the entire country has become essential so that they can be targeted for intervention. A geo-environmental risk model (GERM) developed earlier was used to create a filariasis transmission risk map for India. In this model, a Standardized Filariasis Transmission Risk Index (SFTRI, based on geo-environmental risk variables) was used as a predictor of transmission risk. The relationship between SFTRI and endemicity (historically known) of an area was quantified by logistic regression analysis. The quantified relationship was validated by assessing the filarial antigenemia status of children living in the unsurveyed areas through a ground truth study. A significant positive relationship was observed between SFTRI and the endemicity of an area. Overall, the model prediction of filarial endemic status of districts was found to be correct in 92.8% of the total observations. Thus, among the 190 districts hitherto unsurveyed, as many as 113 districts were predicted to be at risk, and the remaining at no risk. The GERM developed on geographic information system (GIS) platform is useful for LF spatial delimitation on a macrogeographic/regional scale. Furthermore, the risk map developed will be useful for the national LF elimination program by identifying areas at risk for intervention and for undertaking surveillance in no-risk areas. PMID:23808973

  14. General circulation model simulations of winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J., Jr.; Legates, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, observed sea-level pressures were used to evaluate winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models. The objective of the study is to determine how similar the spatial and temporal distributions of GCM-simulated daily sea-level pressures over North America are to observed distributions. Overall, both models are better at reproducing observed within-season variance of winter and summer sea-level pressures than they are at simulating the magnitude of mean winter and summer sea-level pressures. -from Authors

  15. A new electronic scanner of pressure designed for installation in wind-tunnel models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coe, C. T.; Parra, G. T.; Kauffman, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    A new electronic scanner of pressure (ESOP) has been developed by NASA Ames Research Center for installation in wind-tunnel models. An ESOP system includes up to 20 pressure modules, each with 48 pressure transducers, an A/D converter, a microprocessor, a data controller, a monitor unit, and a heater controller. The system is sized so that the pressure modules and A/D converter module can be installed within an average-size model tested in the Ames Aerodynamics Division wind tunnels. This paper describes the ESOP system, emphasizing the main element of the system - the pressure module. The measured performance of the overall system is also presented.

  16. Epidemiology of elevated blood pressure and associated risk factors in Chinese children: the SNEC study.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Y; Qian, Z; Vaughn, M G; Boutwell, B B; Yang, M; Zeng, X-W; Liu, R-Q; Qin, X-D; Zhu, Y; Dong, G-H

    2016-04-01

    Despite the association of childhood blood pressure (BP) with hypertension later in the life course, there remains dearth of information regarding the prevalence and emergence of hypertension in children, especially in China. To investigate the current status of BP, prevalence of elevated BP and related factors in Chinese children, a cross-sectional survey in a representative sample of 9354 Chinese children 5-17 years old was conducted in seven cities in Northeastern China during 2011 and 2012. BP measurements were taken by mercury sphygmomanometer. Elevated BP in children was defined as an average diastolic BP or systolic BP that is in the 95th percentile or higher for their gender, age and height. Overall, total prevalence of elevated BP was 13.8%, and no significant difference between males and females was identified. Multivariate analyses revealed that children having a higher area of residence had a lower of elevated BP. Increased odds for elevated BP were found for individuals who were lean (odds ratio (OR)=2.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.67-2.69), overweight (OR=2.05; 95% CI: 1.74-2.42), obese (OR=3.15; 95% CI: 2.70-3.68), were born with low birth weight (OR=1.26; 95%CI: 1.01-1.63), premature birth (OR=1.46; 95%CI: 1.13-1.88), and were with home coal use (OR=1.24; 95%CI: 1.02-1.52). In conclusion, elevated BP was found to be prevalent in children in urban areas of Northeast China. These results underscore the importance of implementing a package of measures aimed at reducing malleable risk for this cardiovascular condition in school-aged children in Northeast China. PMID:26446390

  17. ARHGEF12 influences the risk of glaucoma by increasing intraocular pressure.

    PubMed

    Springelkamp, Henriët; Iglesias, Adriana I; Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Amin, Najaf; Burdon, Kathryn P; van Leeuwen, Elisabeth M; Gharahkhani, Puya; Mishra, Aniket; van der Lee, Sven J; Hewitt, Alex W; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Wolfs, Roger C W; Martin, Nicholas G; Ramdas, Wishal D; van Koolwijk, Leonieke M; Pennell, Craig E; Vingerling, Johannes R; Mountain, Jenny E; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Mitchell, Paul; Lemij, Hans G; Wang, Jie Jin; Klaver, Caroline C W; Mackey, David A; Craig, Jamie E; van Duijn, Cornelia M; MacGregor, Stuart

    2015-05-01

    Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a blinding disease. Two important risk factors for this disease are a positive family history and elevated intraocular pressure (IOP), which is also highly heritable. Genes found to date associated with IOP and POAG are ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2, GAS7 and TMCO1. However, these genes explain only a small part of the heritability of IOP and POAG. We performed a genome-wide association study of IOP in the population-based Rotterdam Study I and Rotterdam Study II using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) imputed to 1000 Genomes. In this discovery cohort (n = 8105), we identified a new locus associated with IOP. The most significantly associated SNP was rs58073046 (β = 0.44, P-value = 1.87 × 10(-8), minor allele frequency = 0.12), within the gene ARHGEF12. Independent replication in five population-based studies (n = 7471) resulted in an effect size in the same direction that was significantly associated (β = 0.16, P-value = 0.04). The SNP was also significantly associated with POAG in two independent case-control studies [n = 1225 cases and n = 4117 controls; odds ratio (OR) = 1.53, P-value = 1.99 × 10(-8)], especially with high-tension glaucoma (OR = 1.66, P-value = 2.81 × 10(-9); for normal-tension glaucoma OR = 1.29, P-value = 4.23 × 10(-2)). ARHGEF12 plays an important role in the RhoA/RhoA kinase pathway, which has been implicated in IOP regulation. Furthermore, it binds to ABCA1 and links the ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2 and GAS7 pathway to Mendelian POAG genes (MYOC, OPTN, WDR36). In conclusion, this study identified a novel association between IOP and ARHGEF12. PMID:25637523

  18. Numerical modeling of self-pressurization and pressure control by a thermodynamic vent system in a cryogenic tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Valenzuela, Juan; LeClair, Andre; Moder, Jeff

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a numerical model of a system-level test bed-the multipurpose hydrogen test bed (MHTB) using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). MHTB is representative in size and shape of a space transportation vehicle liquid hydrogen propellant tank, and ground-based testing was performed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to generate data for cryogenic storage. GFSSP is a finite volume-based network flow analysis software developed at MSFC and used for thermofluid analysis of propulsion systems. GFSSP has been used to model the self-pressurization and ullage pressure control by the Thermodynamic Vent System (TVS). A TVS typically includes a Joule-Thompson (J-T) expansion device, a two-phase heat exchanger (HEX), and a mixing pump and liquid injector to extract thermal energy from the tank without significant loss of liquid propellant. For the MHTB tank, the HEX and liquid injector are combined into a vertical spray bar assembly. Two GFSSP models (Self-Pressurization and TVS) were separately developed and tested and then integrated to simulate the entire system. The Self-Pressurization model consists of multiple ullage nodes, a propellant node, and solid nodes; it computes the heat transfer through multilayer insulation blankets and calculates heat and mass transfer between the ullage and liquid propellant and the ullage and tank wall. A TVS model calculates the flow through a J-T valve, HEX, and spray and vent systems. Two models are integrated by exchanging data through User Subroutines of both models. Results of the integrated models have been compared with MHTB test data at a 50% fill level. Satisfactory comparison was observed between tests and numerical predictions.

  19. High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

    1993-09-01

    The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.

  20. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PESTICIDE CONCENTRATIONS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT (FRANCO MODEL)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes a method for statistically characterizing the occurrence and duration of pesticide concentrations in surface waters receiving runoff from agricultural lands. The characterization bridges the gap between simulated instream pesticide modeling and the risk asse...

  1. Submission Form for Peer-Reviewed Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    If you have information about a peer-reviewd cancer risk prediction model that you would like to be considered for inclusion on this list, submit as much information as possible through the form on this page.

  2. Predictive qualitative risk model of bovine rabies occurrence in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Braga, Guilherme Basseto; Grisi-Filho, José Henrique Hildebrand; Leite, Bruno Meireles; de Sena, Elaine Fátima; Dias, Ricardo Augusto

    2014-03-01

    Bovine rabies remains endemic in Brazil and despite control efforts, the disease still spreads insidiously. The main vector is the hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus. The present work aimed to create a predictive qualitative model of the occurrence of bovine rabies in each municipality in 25 of the 27 Brazilian States. The risk of rabies transmission from bats to bovine was estimated using decision-tree models of receptivity and vulnerability. Questionnaires, which covered a number of questions related to the surveillance of possible risk factors, such as bovine rabies outbreaks in the previous year, the presence of bat roosts, bat rabies positivity and environmental changes, were sent to the local veterinary units of each State. The bovine density and geomorphologic features were obtained from national databases and geographic information systems. Of the 433 municipalities presenting bovine rabies outbreaks in 2010, 178 (41.1%) were classified by the model as high risk, 212 (49.0%) were classified as moderate risk, 25 (5.8%) were classified as low risk, whereas the risk was undetermined in 18 municipalities (4.1%). An ROC curve was built to determine if the risk evaluated by the model could adequately discriminate between municipalities with and without rabies occurrence in future years. The risk estimator for the year 2011 was classified as moderately accurate. In the future, these models could allow the targeting of rabies control efforts, with the adoption of control measures directed to the higher risk locations and the optimization of the field veterinary staff deployment throughout the country. Additionally, efforts must be made to encourage continuous surveillance of risk factors. PMID:24433635

  3. Novel modelling solutions for debris risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stokes, P. H.; Walker, R.; Wilkinson, J. E.; Swinerd, G. G.

    1999-01-01

    The Defence Evaluation & Research Agency (DERA) has a long association with the field of space debris research. Effort has focused on the development of software tools (IDES and SDS) to model the debris environment and its long and short term evolution. These models are now well established and recognised for their distinct capabilities. More recently, DERA has begun developing a new software tool called SHIELD. This is an innovative concurrent engineering model designed to assist engineers in identifying the most cost-effective debris protection strategy for a satellite. The model uses a novel survivability metric technique in conjunction with a genetic algorithm to search for the optimum choice and location of bumper shields, and the optimum arrangement of critical satellite components. This paper briefly summarises the unique aspects of the environment models and recent results, before describing the new SHIELD model in some detail.

  4. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  5. Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

  6. A flamelet model for supersonic non-premixed combustion with pressure variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guo-Yan; Sun, Ming-Bo; Wu, Jin-Shui; Wang, Hong-Bo

    2015-08-01

    A modified flamelet model is proposed for studying supersonic combustion with pressure variation considering that pressure is far from homogenous in a supersonic combustor. In this model, the flamelet database are tabulated at a reference pressure, while quantities at other pressure are obtained using a sixth-order polynomial in pressure. Attributed to merit of the modified model which compute coefficients for the expansion only. And they brought less requirements for memory and table lookup time, expensive cost is avoided. The performance of modified model is much better than the approach of using a flamelet model-based method with tabulation at different pressure values. Two types of hydrogen fueled scramjet combustors were introduced to validate the modified flamelet model. It was observed that the temperature is sensitive to the choice of model in combustion area, which in return will significantly affect the pressure. It was found that the results of modified model were in good agreement with the experimental data compared with the isobaric flamelet model, especially for temperature, whose value is more accurately predicted. It is concluded that the modified flamelet model was more effective for cases with a wide range of pressure variation.

  7. An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

    PubMed Central

    Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

    2012-01-01

    Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

  8. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  9. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  10. Should pulse pressure and day/night variations in blood pressure be seen as independent risk factors requiring correction or simply as markers to be taken into account when evaluating overall vascular risk?

    PubMed

    Bouhanick, B; Chamontin, B

    2007-11-01

    Patients with a blunted fall in nocturnal BP (known as non-dippers) have a high risk of micro- and macrovascular complications, particularly if they have hypertension, but also in normotensive patients with diabetes. A blunted fall in nocturnal BP reflects the high level of CV risk in these patients. ABPM data indicating an altered circadian BP rhythm reverse circadian BP profile should alert the physician to the potential risk of complications and should lead to efforts to treat hypertension effectively, especially at night, and to check for sleep apnoea syndrome, particularly in cases of resistant hypertension, or autonomic neuropathy (postural hypotension), a well known risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. Patients should be carefully screened for nephropathy. However, the definitions of "non-dipper" vary widely. Suitable treatments are poorly defined, but angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), diuretics, salt restriction and the maintenance of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) can be used as non-specific treatments. The efficacy of taking blood pressure-lowering drugs at bedtime rather than in the morning is still debated but deserves attention. In the diabetic population, brachial pulse pressure (PP) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality, but not of all-cause mortality. It is also associated with complications of both type 2 and type 1 diabetes, this effect being stronger for nocturnal than for diurnal PP, and is strongly predictive of coronary heart disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. The stronger association between PP and age in diabetic than in non-diabetic populations suggests that diabetes accelerates vascular ageing. In patients with incipient nephropathy or overt renal failure, PP increases CV risk. However, misinterpretation could be related to confusion between brachial PP and central PP. The therapeutic implications of PP measurement remain poorly documented in diabetes. PMID:17936663

  11. Modeling the Risks of Geothermal Development

    SciTech Connect

    Golabi, K.; Nair, K.; Rothstein, S.; Sioshansi, F.

    1980-12-16

    Geothermal energy has emerged as a promising energy source in recent years and has received serious attention from developers and potential users. Despite the advantages of this resource, such as potential cost competitiveness, reliability, public acceptance, etc., the commercial development and use of geothermal energy has been slow. Impediments to the development of this resource include technical, financial, environmental and regulatory uncertainties. Since geothermal power is unique in that the generation facility is tied to a single fuel at a single site, these uncertainties are of particular concern to utility companies. The areas of uncertainty and potential risks are well known. This paper presents a method for quantifying the relevant uncertainties and a framework for aggregating the risks through the use of submodels. The objective submodels can be combined with subjective probabilities (when sufficient data is not available) to yield a probability distribution over a single criterion (levelized busbar cost) that can be used to compare the desirability of geothermal power development with respect to other alternatives.

  12. ARSENIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project integrates research on the kinetic behavior and metabolism of arsenic at both the cellular and whole organism levels using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling approach. The ultimate goal is development of a robust human PBPK model for arsenic met...

  13. Modeling Environment for Total Risk-2E

    EPA Science Inventory

    MENTOR-2E uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose-to-response modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and doses resulting from emergency events. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system that is focused towards modeling of the impacts of rele...

  14. Hypertension Canada's 2016 Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines for Blood Pressure Measurement, Diagnosis, and Assessment of Risk of Pediatric Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Harris, Kevin C; Benoit, Geneviève; Dionne, Janis; Feber, Janusz; Cloutier, Lyne; Zarnke, Kelly B; Padwal, Raj S; Rabi, Doreen M; Fournier, Anne

    2016-05-01

    We present the inaugural evidence-based Canadian recommendations for the measurement of blood pressure in children and the diagnosis and evaluation of pediatric hypertension. Rates of pediatric hypertension are increasing concomitant with increased rates of childhood obesity. With this, there is growing awareness of the need to measure blood pressure in children. Consequently, the present recommendations have been developed to address an important gap and improve the clinical care of children. For 2016, a total of 15 recommendations are presented. These are categorized in a fashion similar to that of the existing adult recommendations. Specifically, we present recommendations on (1) accurate measurement of blood pressure in children, (2) criteria for diagnosis of hypertension in children, (3) assessment of overall cardiovascular risk in hypertensive children, (4) routine laboratory tests for the investigation of children with hypertension, (5) ambulatory blood pressure measurement in children, and (6) the role of echocardiography. We discuss the rationale for the recommendations and present additional supporting material for the clinician, including tables with standardized techniques for blood pressure measurement and determination of normative blood pressure values for children. Hypertension Canada's Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines Task Force will update the recommendations annually and develop future evidence-based recommendations to guide prevention and treatment of pediatric hypertension. PMID:27118292

  15. Comparison of three computational models for predicting pressurization characteristics of cryogenic tank during discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Wang; Yanzhong, Li; Kang, Zhu; Yonghua, Jin

    2015-01-01

    In order to select an effective approach to predict the pressurization characteristics of cryogenic tank during rocket launching, three computational models, defined as 0-D, 1-D and CFD models, are used to obtain the pressure evolution and thermal performance of a cryogenic tank during pressurized discharge period. Several pressurization cases are computed by all of the three models to evaluate their predictive abilities and effects, respectively. The comparative study shows that for the case with a diffuser-type injector at the tank inlet, the consistent results by the three models are obtained in the most of period, except that 1-D model has a peak departure prediction of pressure value at the beginning of process. All of the three models can be used to predict the pressurization performance, and their predictive abilities could be validated with one another. The CFD model is the unique suitable model to display the pressurization performance including physical distribution in radial direction especially for the system with no-diffuser-type injector. Based on the analysis, the application selection of three models for different cases is accomplished. The 0-D model is the priority selection for a simple pressure prediction of tank ullage, even for the situation that severe temperature distribution exists in the ullage range. The 1-D model is the optimal selection as considering both the convenience and the time consumption for the constant-pressure cases. But it is not recommended in a constant-inlet flux cases for its distinct predicting deviation at the beginning of the process. When the detailed distributions within the tank are concerned, the CFD model is the unique selection. The results of this paper may be beneficial to the model selection and optimization analysis of a pressurization system.

  16. A Model for Risk Assessment in Health Care.

    PubMed

    Prijatelj, Vesna; Rajkovič, Vladislav; Šušteršič, Olga

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to reduce risks and hence prevent errors in the health care process. The aim is to design an organizational information model using error prevention methods for risk assessment in a clinical setting. The model is based on selected indicators of quality nursing care, resulting from the world-known theoretical and practical models combined with experience in the Slovenian health care. The proposed organizational information model and software solution has a significant impact on the professional attention, communication and information, critical thinking, experience and knowledge. PMID:27332383

  17. Constitutive and damage material modeling in a high pressure hydrogen environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, D. A.; Fritzemeier, L. G.

    1991-05-01

    Numerous components in reusable space propulsion systems such as the SSME are exposed to high pressure gaseous hydrogen environments. Flow areas and passages in the fuel turbopump, fuel and oxidizer preburners, main combustion chamber, and injector assembly contain high pressure hydrogen either high in purity or as hydrogen rich steam. Accurate constitutive and damage material models applicable to high pressure hydrogen environments are therefore needed for engine design and analysis. Existing constitutive and cyclic crack initiation models were evaluated only for conditions of oxidizing environments. The main objective is to evaluate these models for applicability to high pressure hydrogen environments.

  18. Constitutive and damage material modeling in a high pressure hydrogen environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, D. A.; Fritzemeier, L. G.

    1991-01-01

    Numerous components in reusable space propulsion systems such as the SSME are exposed to high pressure gaseous hydrogen environments. Flow areas and passages in the fuel turbopump, fuel and oxidizer preburners, main combustion chamber, and injector assembly contain high pressure hydrogen either high in purity or as hydrogen rich steam. Accurate constitutive and damage material models applicable to high pressure hydrogen environments are therefore needed for engine design and analysis. Existing constitutive and cyclic crack initiation models were evaluated only for conditions of oxidizing environments. The main objective is to evaluate these models for applicability to high pressure hydrogen environments.

  19. Uncontrolled blood pressure and risk of sleep apnea among blacks: findings from the metabolic syndrome outcome (MetSO) study.

    PubMed

    Seixas, A; Ravenell, J; Williams, N J; Williams, S K; Zizi, F; Ogedegbe, G; Jean-Louis, G

    2016-03-01

    Uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) is linked to increased risk of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, few studies have assessed the impact of this relationship among blacks with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Data for this study were collected from 1035 blacks (mean age=62±13 years) enrolled in the Metabolic Syndrome Outcome study. Patients with a score ⩾6 on the Apnea Risk Evaluation System were considered at risk for OSA. Of the sample, 77.1% were low-to-high OSA risk and 92.3% were hypertensive, of which 16.8% had uncontrolled BP levels. Analysis also showed that 60.4% were diabetic, 8.9% had a stroke history, 74.3% had dyslipidemia, 69.8% were obese and 30.9% had a history of heart disease. Logistic regression analyses were employed to investigate associations between uncontrolled BP and OSA risk, while adjusting for known covariates. Findings showed that uncontrolled BP independently increased the odds of OSA risk twofold (odds ratio=2.02, 95% confidence interval=1.18-3.48, P<0.05). In conclusion, our findings show that uncontrolled BP was associated with a twofold greater risk of OSA among blacks, suggesting that those with MetS and who have uncontrolled BP should be screened for the presence of OSA. PMID:26246311

  20. A model for the influence of pressure on the bulk modulus and the influence of temperature on the solidification pressure for liquid lubricants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Bo O.; Vinet, Pascal

    1987-01-01

    Two pressure chambers, for compression experiments with liquids from zero to 2.2 GPa pressure, are described. The experimentally measured compressions are then compared to theoretical values given by an isothermal model of equation of state recently introduced for solids. The model describes the pressure and bulk modulus as a function of compression for different types of lubricants with a very high accuracy up to the pressure limit of the high pressure chamber used (2.2 GPa). In addition the influence of temperature on static solidification pressure was found to be a simple function of the thermal expansion of the fluid.

  1. A model for the influence of pressure on the bulk modulus and the influence of temperature on the solidification pressure for liquid lubricants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, B. O.; Vinet, P.

    1986-01-01

    Two pressure chambers, for compression experiments with liquids from zero to 2.2 GPa pressure, are described. The experimentally measured compressions are then compared to theoretical values given by an isothermal model of equation of state recently introduced for solids. The model describes the pressure and bulk modulus as a function of compression for different types of lubricants with a very high accuracy up to the pressure limit of the high pressure chamber used (2.2 GPa). In addition the influence of temperature on static solidification pressure was found to be a simple function of the thermal expansion of the fluid.

  2. Physically-based strength model of tantalum incorporating effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett C.; Brown, Justin L.; Weinberger, Christopher R.

    2016-06-01

    In this work, we develop a tantalum strength model that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. Dislocation kink-pair theory is used to incorporate temperature and strain rate effects while the pressure dependent yield is obtained through the pressure dependent shear modulus. Material constants used in the model are parameterized from tantalum single crystal tests and polycrystalline ramp compression experiments. It is shown that the proposed strength model agrees well with the temperature and strain rate dependent yield obtained from polycrystalline tantalum experiments. Furthermore, the model accurately reproduces the pressure dependent yield stresses up to 250 GPa. The proposed strength model is then used to conduct simulations of a Taylor cylinder impact test and validated with experiments. This approach provides a physically-based multi-scale strength model that is able to predict the plastic deformation of polycrystalline tantalum through a wide range of temperature, strain and pressure regimes.

  3. Physically-based strength model of tantalum incorporating effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett C.; Brown, Justin L.; Weinberger, Christopher R.

    2016-06-14

    In this work, we develop a tantalum strength model that incorporates e ects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. Dislocation kink-pair theory is used to incorporate temperature and strain rate e ects while the pressure dependent yield is obtained through the pressure dependent shear modulus. Material constants used in the model are parameterized from tantalum single crystal tests and polycrystalline ramp compression experiments. It is shown that the proposed strength model agrees well with the temperature and strain rate dependent yield obtained from polycrystalline tantalum experiments. Furthermore, the model accurately reproduces the pressure dependent yield stresses up to 250 GPa.more » The proposed strength model is then used to conduct simulations of a Taylor cylinder impact test and validated with experiments. This approach provides a physically-based multi-scale strength model that is able to predict the plastic deformation of polycrystalline tantalum through a wide range of temperature, strain and pressure regimes.« less

  4. Proactive multifactorial intervention strategy reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease estimated with region-specific risk assessment models in Pacific Asian patients participating in the CRUCIAL trial.

    PubMed

    Cho, Eun Joo; Kim, Jae Hyung; Sutradhar, Santosh; Yunis, Carla; Westergaard, Mogens

    2013-12-01

    Despite race, ethnic, and regional differences in cardiovascular disease risk, many worldwide hypertension management guidelines recommend the use of the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equation to guide treatment decisions. This subanalysis of the recently published CRUCIAL trial compared the treatment-related reductions in calculated CHD and stroke risk among Pacific Asian (PA) patients using a variety of region-specific risk assessment models. As a result, greater reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were observed in the proactive multifactorial intervention (PMI) arm compared with the usual care arm at Week 52 for PA patients. The relative percentage change in 10-yr CHD risk between baseline and Week 52 in the PMI versus usual care arms was greatest using the NIPPON DATA80 fatal CHD model (LS [least square] mean difference -42.6%), and similar in the SCORE fatal CHD and Framingham total CHD models (LS mean difference -29.4% and -30.8%, respectively). The single-pill based PMI approach is consistently effective in reducing cardiovascular disease risk, evaluated using a variety of risk assessment models. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00407537). PMID:24339703

  5. Proactive Multifactorial Intervention Strategy Reduces the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Estimated with Region-Specific Risk Assessment Models in Pacific Asian Patients Participating in the CRUCIAL Trial

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Eun Joo; Sutradhar, Santosh; Yunis, Carla; Westergaard, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    Despite race, ethnic, and regional differences in cardiovascular disease risk, many worldwide hypertension management guidelines recommend the use of the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equation to guide treatment decisions. This subanalysis of the recently published CRUCIAL trial compared the treatment-related reductions in calculated CHD and stroke risk among Pacific Asian (PA) patients using a variety of region-specific risk assessment models. As a result, greater reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were observed in the proactive multifactorial intervention (PMI) arm compared with the usual care arm at Week 52 for PA patients. The relative percentage change in 10-yr CHD risk between baseline and Week 52 in the PMI versus usual care arms was greatest using the NIPPON DATA80 fatal CHD model (LS [least square] mean difference -42.6%), and similar in the SCORE fatal CHD and Framingham total CHD models (LS mean difference -29.4% and -30.8%, respectively). The single-pill based PMI approach is consistently effective in reducing cardiovascular disease risk, evaluated using a variety of risk assessment models. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00407537) PMID:24339703

  6. Central Pressure Appraisal: Clinical Validation of a Subject-Specific Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Leone, Dario; Camporeale, Carlo; Bruno, Giulia; Ridolfi, Luca; Veglio, Franco; Milan, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Current evidence suggests that aortic blood pressure has a superior prognostic value with respect to brachial pressure for cardiovascular events, but direct measurement is not feasible in daily clinical practice. Aim The aim of the present study is the clinical validation of a multiscale mathematical model for non-invasive appraisal of central blood pressure from subject-specific characteristics. Methods A total of 51 young male were selected for the present study. Aortic systolic and diastolic pressure were estimated with a mathematical model and were compared to the most-used non-invasive validated technique (SphygmoCor device, AtCor Medical, Australia). SphygmoCor was calibrated through diastolic and systolic brachial pressure obtained with a sphygmomanometer, while model inputs consist of brachial pressure, height, weight, age, left-ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, and data from a pulse wave velocity study. Results Model-estimated systolic and diastolic central blood pressures resulted to be significantly related to SphygmoCor-assessed central systolic (r = 0.65 p <0.0001) and diastolic (r = 0.84 p<0.0001) blood pressures. The model showed a significant overestimation of systolic pressure (+7.8 (-2.2;14) mmHg, p = 0.0003) and a significant underestimation of diastolic values (-3.2(-7.5;1.6), p = 0.004), which imply a significant overestimation of central pulse pressure. Interestingly, model prediction errors mirror the mean errors reported in large meta-analysis characterizing the use of the SphygmoCor when non-invasive calibration is performed. Conclusion In conclusion, multi-scale mathematical model predictions result to be significantly related to SphygmoCor ones. Model-predicted systolic and diastolic aortic pressure resulted in difference of less than 10 mmHg in the 51% and 84% of the subjects, respectively, when compared with SphygmoCor-obtained pressures. PMID:27010562

  7. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  8. Job strain (demands and control model) as a predictor of cardiovascular risk factors among petrochemical personnel

    PubMed Central

    Habibi, Ehsanollah; Poorabdian, Siamak; Shakerian, Mahnaz

    2015-01-01

    Background: One of the practical models for the assessment of stressful working conditions due to job strain is job demand and control model, which explains how physical and psychological adverse consequences, including cardiovascular risk factors can be established due to high work demands (the amount of workload, in addition to time limitations to complete that work) and low control of the worker on his/her work (lack of decision making) in the workplace. The aim of this study was to investigate how certain cardiovascular risk factors (including body mass index [BMI], heart rate, blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking) and the job demand and job control are related to each other. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 500 workers of the petrochemical industry in south of Iran, 2009. The study population was selected using simple random statistical method. They completed job demand and control questionnaire. The cardiovascular risk factors data was extracted from the workers hygiene profiles. Chi-square (χ2) test and hypothesis test (η) were used to assess the possible relationship between different quantified variables, individual demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The results of this study revealed that a significant relationship can be found between job demand control model and cardiovascular risk factors. Chi-square test result for the heart rate showed the highest (χ2 = 145.078) relationship, the corresponding results for smoking and BMI were χ2 = 85.652 and χ2 = 30.941, respectively. Subsequently, hypothesis testing results for cholesterol and hypertension was 0.469 and 0.684, respectively. Discussion: Job strain is likely to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors among male staff in a petrochemical company in Iran. The parameters illustrated in the Job demands and control model can act as acceptable predictors for the probability of job stress occurrence followed by showing

  9. Pore water pressure variations in Subpermafrost groundwater : Numerical modeling compared with experimental modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivière, Agnès.; Goncalves, Julio; Jost, Anne; Font, Marianne

    2010-05-01

    Development and degradation of permafrost directly affect numerous hydrogeological processes such as thermal regime, exchange between river and groundwater, groundwater flows patterns and groundwater recharge (Michel, 1994). Groundwater in permafrost area is subdivided into two zones: suprapermafrost and subpermafrost which are separated by permafrost. As a result of the volumetric expansion of water upon freezing and assuming ice lenses and frost heave do not form freezing in a saturated aquifer, the progressive formation of permafrost leads to the pressurization of the subpermafrost groundwater (Wang, 2006). Therefore disappearance or aggradation of permafrost modifies the confined or unconfined state of subpermafrost groundwater. Our study focuses on modifications of pore water pressure of subpermafrost groundwater which could appear during thawing and freezing of soil. Numerical simulation allows elucidation of some of these processes. Our numerical model accounts for phase changes for coupled heat transport and variably saturated flow involving cycles of freezing and thawing. The flow model is a combination of a one-dimensional channel flow model which uses Manning-Strickler equation and a two-dimensional vertically groundwater flow model using Richards equation. Numerical simulation of heat transport consisted in a two dimensional model accounting for the effects of latent heat of phase change of water associated with melting/freezing cycles which incorporated the advection-diffusion equation describing heat-transfer in porous media. The change of hydraulic conductivity and thermal conductivity are considered by our numerical model. The model was evaluated by comparing predictions with data from laboratory freezing experiments. Experimental design was undertaken at the Laboratory M2C (Univesité de Caen-Basse Normandie, CNRS, France). The device consisted of a Plexiglas box insulated on all sides except on the top. Precipitation and ambient temperature are

  10. Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

    2004-01-01

    This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

  11. Analytic Modeling of Pressurization and Cryogenic Propellant Conditions for Lunar Landing Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Corpening, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the development, validation and application of the model to the Lunar Landing Vehicle. The model named, Computational Propellant and Pressurization Program -- One Dimensional (CPPPO), is used to model in this case cryogenic propellant conditions of the Altair Lunar lander. The validation of CPPPO was accomplished via comparison to an existing analytic model (i.e., ROCETS), flight experiment and ground experiments. The model was used to the Lunar Landing Vehicle perform a parametric analysis on pressurant conditions and to examine the results of unequal tank pressurization and draining for multiple tank designs.

  12. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  13. Physical basis of pressure transfer from periphery to aorta: a model-based study.

    PubMed

    Stergiopulos, N; Westerhof, B E; Westerhof, N

    1998-04-01

    We propose a new method to derive aortic pressure from peripheral pressure and velocity by using a time domain approach. Peripheral pressure is separated into its forward and backward components, and these components are then shifted with a delay time, which is the ratio of wave speed and distance, and added again to reconstruct aortic pressure. We tested the method on a distributed model of the human systemic arterial tree. From carotid and brachial artery pressure and velocity, aortic systolic and diastolic pressure could be predicted within 0.3 and 0.1 mmHg and 0.4 and 1.0 mmHg, respectively. The central aortic pressure wave shape was also predicted accurately from carotid and brachial pressure and velocity (root mean square error: 1.07 and 1.56 mmHg, respectively). The pressure transfer function depends on the reflection coefficient at the site of peripheral measurement and the delay time. A 50% decrease in arterial compliance had a considerable effect on reconstructed pressure when the control transfer function was used. A 70% decrease in arm resistance did not affect the reconstructed pressure. The transfer function thus depends on wave speed but has little dependence on vasoactive state. We conclude that central aortic pressure and the transfer function can be derived from peripheral pressure and velocity. PMID:9575944

  14. Composite Pressure Vessel Variability in Geometry and Filament Winding Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Steven J.; Greene, Nathanael J.

    2012-01-01

    Composite pressure vessels (CPVs) are used in a variety of applications ranging from carbon dioxide canisters for paintball guns to life support and pressurant storage on the International Space Station. With widespread use, it is important to be able to evaluate the effect of variability on structural performance. Data analysis was completed on CPVs to determine the amount of variation that occurs among the same type of CPV, and a filament winding routine was developed to facilitate study of the effect of manufacturing variation on structural response.

  15. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  16. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  17. Modeling Manufacturing Processes to Mitigate Technological Risk

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, G.O.; Manges, W.W.

    1999-10-24

    An economic model is a tool for determining the justifiable cost of new sensors and subsystems with respect to value and operation. This process balances the R and D costs against the expense of maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The model can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.). This model has been successfully used and deployed in the CAFE Project. The economic model was one of seven (see Fig. 1) elements critical in developing an investment strategy. It has been successfully used in guiding the R and D activities on the CAFE Project, suspending activities on three new sensor technologies, and continuing development o f two others. The model has also been used to justify the development of a new prognostic approach for diagnosing machine health using COTS equipment and a new algorithmic approach. maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The model can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.).

  18. Injury prevention and risk communication: a mental models approach.

    PubMed

    Austin, Laurel C; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2012-04-01

    Individuals' decisions and behaviour can play a critical role in determining both the probability and severity of injury. Behavioural decision research studies peoples' decision-making processes in terms comparable to scientific models of optimal choices, providing a basis for focusing interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce risks. That research often seeks to identify the 'mental models' that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental models approach would ask why people fail to see risks, do not make use of available protective interventions or misjudge the effectiveness of protective measures. If these misunderstandings can be reduced through context-appropriate risk communications, then their improved mental models may help people to engage more effectively in behaviours that they judge to be in their own best interest. If that proves impossible, then people may need specific instructions, not trusting to intuition or even paternalistic protection against situations that they cannot sufficiently control. The method entails working with domain specialists to elicit and create an expert model of the risk situation, interviewing lay people to elicit their comparable mental models, and developing and evaluating communication interventions designed to close the gaps between lay people and experts. This paper reviews the theory and method behind this research stream and uses examples to discuss how the approach can be used to develop scientifically validated context-sensitive injury risk communications. PMID:22088928

  19. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    PubMed

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. PMID:23163724

  20. Modeling Environment for Total Risk-1A

    EPA Science Inventory

    MENTOR-1A uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and dose for individuals and/or populations due to co-occurring air pollutants. It uses the "One Atmosphere" concept to characterize simultaneous exposures t...

  1. Modeling Environment for Total Risk-4M

    EPA Science Inventory

    MENTOR-4M uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent, source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify simultaneous exposures and doses of individuals and populations to multiple contaminants. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system for exposures to Multiple contaminants fr...

  2. Pressurization System Modeling for a Generic Bimese Two- Stage-to-Orbit Reusable Launch Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazurkivich, Pete; Chandler, Frank; Nguyen, Han

    2005-01-01

    A pressurization system model was developed for a generic bimese Two-Stage-to-orbit Reusable Launch Vehicle using a cross-feed system and operating with densified propellants. The model was based on the pressurization system model for a crossfeed subscale water test article and was validated with test data obtained from the test article. The model consists of the liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen pressurization models, each made up of two submodels, Booster and Orbiter tank pressurization models. The tanks are controlled within a 0.2-psi band and pressurized on the ground with ambient helium and autogenously in flight with gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen. A 15-psi pressure difference is maintained between the Booster and Orbiter tanks to ensure crossfeed check valve closure before Booster separation. The analysis uses an ascent trajectory generated for a generic bimese vehicle and a tank configuration based on the Space Shuttle External Tank. It determines the flow rates required to pressurize the tanks on the ground and in flight, and demonstrates the model's capability to analyze the pressurization system performance of a full-scale bimese vehicle with densified propellants.

  3. Computational modeling of the pressurization process in a NASP vehicle propellant tank experimental simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sasmal, G. P.; Hochstein, J. I.; Wendl, M. C.; Hardy, T. L.

    1991-01-01

    A multidimensional computational model of the pressurization process in a slush hydrogen propellant storage tank was developed and its accuracy evaluated by comparison to experimental data measured for a 5 ft diameter spherical tank. The fluid mechanic, thermodynamic, and heat transfer processes within the ullage are represented by a finite-volume model. The model was shown to be in reasonable agreement with the experiment data. A parameter study was undertaken to examine the dependence of the pressurization process on initial ullage temperature distribution and pressurant mass flow rate. It is shown that for a given heat flux rate at the ullage boundary, the pressurization process is nearly independent of initial temperature distribution. Significant differences were identified between the ullage temperature and velocity fields predicted for pressurization of slush and those predicted for pressurization of liquid hydrogen. A simplified model of the pressurization process was constructed in search of a dimensionless characterization of the pressurization process. It is shown that the relationship derived from this simplified model collapses all of the pressure history data generated during this study into a single curve.

  4. Modified pressure loss model for T-junctions of engine exhaust manifold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wenhui; Lu, Xiaolu; Cui, Yi; Deng, Kangyao

    2014-11-01

    The T-junction model of engine exhaust manifolds significantly influences the simulation precision of the pressure wave and mass flow rate in the intake and exhaust manifolds of diesel engines. Current studies have focused on constant pressure models, constant static pressure models and pressure loss models. However, low model precision is a common disadvantage when simulating engine exhaust manifolds, particularly for turbocharged systems. To study the performance of junction flow, a cold wind tunnel experiment with high velocities at the junction of a diesel exhaust manifold is performed, and the variation in the pressure loss in the T-junction under different flow conditions is obtained. Despite the trend of the calculated total pressure loss coefficient, which is obtained by using the original pressure loss model and is the same as that obtained from the experimental results, large differences exist between the calculated and experimental values. Furthermore, the deviation becomes larger as the flow velocity increases. By improving the Vazsonyi formula considering the flow velocity and introducing the distribution function, a modified pressure loss model is established, which is suitable for a higher velocity range. Then, the new model is adopted to solve one-dimensional, unsteady flow in a D6114 turbocharged diesel engine. The calculated values are compared with the measured data, and the result shows that the simulation accuracy of the pressure wave before the turbine is improved by 4.3% with the modified pressure loss model because gas compressibility is considered when the flow velocities are high. The research results provide valuable information for further junction flow research, particularly the correction of the boundary condition in one-dimensional simulation models.

  5. High-sensitivity troponin T and cardiovascular events in systolic blood pressure categories: atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

    PubMed

    Pokharel, Yashashwi; Sun, Wensheng; de Lemos, James A; Taffet, George E; Virani, Salim S; Ndumele, Chiadi E; Mosley, Thomas H; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Coresh, Josef; Wright, Jacqueline D; Heiss, Gerardo; Boerwinkle, Eric A; Bozkurt, Biykem; Solomon, Scott D; Ballantyne, Christie M; Nambi, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    Based on observational studies, there is a linear increase in cardiovascular risk with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP), yet clinical trials have not shown benefit across all SBP categories. We assessed whether troponin T measured using high-sensitivity assay was associated with cardiovascular disease within SBP categories in 11 191 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants. Rested sitting SBP by 10-mm Hg increments and troponin categories were identified. Incident heart failure hospitalization, coronary heart disease, and stroke were ascertained for a median of 12 years after excluding individuals with corresponding disease. Approximately 53% of each type of cardiovascular event occurred in individuals with SBP<140 mm Hg and troponin T ≥3 ng/L. Higher troponin T was associated with increasing cardiovascular events across most SBP categories. The association was strongest for heart failure and least strong for stroke. There was no similar association of SBP with cardiovascular events across troponin T categories. Individuals with troponin T ≥3 ng/L and SBP <140 mm Hg had higher cardiovascular risk compared with those with troponin T <3 ng/L and SBP 140 to 159 mm Hg. Higher troponin T levels within narrow SBP categories portend increased cardiovascular risk, particularly for heart failure. Individuals with lower SBP but measurable troponin T had greater cardiovascular risk compared with those with suboptimal SBP but undetectable troponin T. Future trials of systolic hypertension may benefit by using high-sensitivity troponin T to target high-risk patients. PMID:25350984

  6. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  7. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  8. Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

    2004-01-01

    A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

  9. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators. PMID:25346751

  10. Discussing Coronary Risk with Patients to Improve Blood Pressure Treatment: Secondary Results from the CHECK-UP Study

    PubMed Central

    Lowensteyn, Ilka; Joseph, Lawrence; Kaouache, Mohammed; Marchand, Sylvie; Coupal, Louis; Boudreau, Ghislain

    2008-01-01

    Objectives Hypertension is common among patients with dyslipidemia but is often poorly treated. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate how a decision aid, used by primary care physicians to improve lipid therapy, impacted on the treatment of hypertension. Study Design Data were analyzed from patients enrolled in a randomized trial focusing primarily on the treatment of dyslipidemia. Patients received usual care or a coronary risk profile every three months to monitor the risk reduction following lifestyle changes and/or pharmacotherapy to treat dyslipidemia. Hypertension management was assessed based on a post hoc analysis of individuals whose blood pressure exceeded current national hypertension guidelines. Results There were 2,631 subjects who completed the study. Among 1,352 patients without diagnosed hypertension, 30% were above target on at least three consecutive visits. Among 1,279 individuals with known hypertension, 69% were above target on at least two consecutive visits. Overall, patients receiving risk profiles were more likely to receive appropriate antihypertensive therapy (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.11 – 1.78) compared to those receiving usual care. After adjustment for inter-physician variability and potential confounders, the use of the risk profile was associated with an increased likelihood of starting therapy (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.06 – 3.00) or modifying therapy (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.03 – 1.91). Conclusions In this clinical trial of dyslipidemia management, inadequately controlled hypertension was common, occurring in nearly 50% of individuals. Ongoing coronary risk assessment was associated with more appropriate blood pressure management. Cardiovascular risk assessment decision aids should be further evaluated in a randomized trial of hypertension therapy. PMID:18937013

  11. Pressure fluctuation prediction of a model pump turbine at no load opening by a nonlinear k-ε turbulence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J. T.; Zuo, Z. G.; Liu, S. H.; Wu, Y. L.

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, a new nonlinear k-ε turbulence model based on RNG k-ε turbulence model and Wilcox's k-ω turbulence model was proposed to simulate the unsteady flow and to predict the pressure fluctuation through a model pump turbine for engineering application. Calculations on a curved rectangular duct proved that the nonlinear k-ε turbulence model is applicable for high pressure gradient flows and large curvature flows. The numerically predicted relative pressure amplitude (peak to peak) in time domain to the pump turbine head at no load condition is very close to the experimental data. It is indicated that the prediction of the pressure fluctuation is valid by the present nonlinear k-ε method. The high pressure fluctuation in this area is the main issue for pump turbine design, especially at high head condition.

  12. Pressure ulcers.

    PubMed

    O'Byrne, Deborah

    2016-04-13

    My nursing experience is in acute care. Acute medical nurses are well placed to assess skin integrity, identify patients at risk of pressure ulcer development, and commence appropriate interventions to prevent or treat pressure ulcers. PMID:27073966

  13. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  14. Risk Management Model in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanović, Cvjetko

    2016-06-01

    Risk management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment risks. Therefore, the provision and regulation of risk information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against risks. This means that risk management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a risk management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a risk management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a Risk management model in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.

  15. Numerical Modeling and Test Data Comparison of Propulsion Test Article Helium Pressurization System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holt, Kimberly; Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd; Hedayat, Ali; Fogle, Frank R. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A transient model of the propulsion test article (PTA) helium pressurization system was developed using the generalized fluid system simulation program (GFSSP). The model included pressurization lines from the facility interface to the engine purge interface and liquid oxygen (lox) and rocket propellant-1 (RP-1) tanks, the propellant tanks themselves including ullage space, and propellant feed lines to their respective pump interfaces. GFSSP's capability was extended to model a control valve to maintain ullage pressure within a specified limit and pressurization processes such as heat transfer between ullage gas, propellant, and the tank wall as well as conduction in the tank wall. The purpose of the model is to predict the flow system characteristics in the entire pressurization system during 80 sec of lower feed system priming, 420 sec of fuel and lox pump priming, and 150 sec of engine firing.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  17. A simple way to model the pressure dependency of rock velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Tongcheng

    2016-04-01

    Modeling the pressure dependency of rock velocity is important for interpreting and comparing the seismic and earthquake data from different depths. This study develops a multicomponent differential effective medium model for the elastic properties of porous rocks with two types of pores in the grain background without mixing order. The developed model is applied to modeling the pressure dependent elastic velocity of porous rocks by incorporating the variation of stiff and compliant porosity as a function of pressure. The pressure dependent stiff and compliant porosity were inverted from the measured total porosity under pressure using a dual porosity model, and the unknown constant stiff and compliant pore aspect ratios were inverted by best fitting the modeled velocity to the measured data. Application of the approach to a low porosity granite and a medium porosity sandstone sample showed that the pressure dependency of rock velocity can be satisfactorily modeled by the developed model using the pressure dependent stiff and compliant porosity and carefully estimated stiff and compliant pore aspect ratio values.

  18. Modelling microbial health risk of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Beaudequin, Denise; Harden, Fiona; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2015-11-01

    There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health risk. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model representing factors contributing to the microbiological health risks of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised model that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial risk as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual model of health risk of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health risk in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios. PMID:26277638

  19. Evaluation of personnel blood pressure and its risk factors in university affiliated medical centers: Iran’s Health Day 2013

    PubMed Central

    Saberi Isfeedvajani, Mohsen; Karimi Zarchi, Ali Akbar; Musavi Heris, Abbas; Sajjadi, Fatema; Tavana, Ali Mehrabi

    2014-01-01

    Background Hypertension is a risk factor for life threatening diseases such as cerebrovascular accidents, coronary artery diseases, congestive heart failure and chronic renal failure. The prevalence of non-communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes including obesity has increased over the past few years in Iran. The first step for modification of cardiovascular diseases in a defined population is to assess the prevalence of their risk factors. This study was conduceted to assess personnel blood pressure and its risk factors in one of the medical universities of Tehran in the Health Day of 2013. Methods: This cross sectional study was performed from May 19, 2013 to May 24, 2013 (I.R. of Iran’s Health Weak) in one of the medical universities of Tehran. Participants completed voluntarily a researcher-made questionnaire which composed of demographic characteristics and variables about risk factors and preventive factors of cardiovascular diseases such as smoking, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, physical exercise status and so on. Blood pressure was measured by mercury sphygmomanometer and weight and height were measured by a ground analogue scale. Results: Of 195 persons participated in this study, 180 persons (92.3%) were male. The mean age of participants was 33.75 (±9.87) yr. The mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure was 114.44 (±8.67) mmHg and 73.06 (±8.45) mmHg, respectively. The prevalence of overweight, obesity, prehypertension and hypertension was 41.7%, 17.8%, 40.4% and 11.7% respectively. Only 8 persons (5.6%) were cigarette smokers. Conclusion: Despite the low prevalence of hypertension in our samples, the high prevalence of prehypertension and overweight need great attention. Interventions like life style modification could be effective in prevention of hypertension. PMID:25250277

  20. Intraocular pressure and glaucoma: Is physical exercise beneficial or a risk?

    PubMed

    McMonnies, Charles William

    2016-01-01

    Intraocular pressure may become elevated with muscle exertion, changes in body position and increased respiratory volumes, especially when Valsalva manoeuver mechanisms are involved. All of these factors may be present during physical exercise, especially if hydration levels are increased. This review examines the evidence for intraocular pressure changes during and after physical exercise. Intraocular pressure elevation may result in a reduction in ocular perfusion pressure with the associated possibility of mechanical and/or ischaemic damage to the optic nerve head. A key consideration is the possibility that, rather than being beneficial for patients who are susceptible to glaucomatous pathology, any intraocular pressure elevation could be detrimental. Lower intraocular pressure after exercise may result from its elevation causing accelerated aqueous outflow during exercise. Also examined is the possibility that people who have lower frailty are more likely to exercise as well as less likely to have or develop glaucoma. Consequently, lower prevalence of glaucoma would be expected among people who exercise. The evidence base for this topic is deficient and would be greatly improved by the availability of tonometry assessment during dynamic exercise, more studies which control for hydration levels, and methods for assessing the potential general health benefits of exercise against any possibility of exacerbated glaucomatous pathology for individual patients who are susceptible to such changes. PMID:26794458

  1. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  2. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    PubMed Central

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID

  3. Treating asphericity in fuel particle pressure vessel modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Gregory K.; Wadsworth, Derek C.

    1994-07-01

    The prototypical nuclear fuel of the New Production Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (NP-MHTGR) consists of spherical TRISO-coated particles suspended in graphite cylinders. The coating layers surrounding the fuel kernels in these particles consist of pyrolytic carbon layers and a silicon carbide layer. These coating layers act as a pressure vessel which retains fission product gases. In the operating conditions of the NP-MHTGR, a small percentage of these particles (pressure vessels) are expected to fail due to the pressure loading. The fuel particles of the NP-MHTGR deviate to some degree from a true spherical shape, which may have some effect on the failure percentages. A method is presented that treats the asphericity of the particles in predicting failure probabilities for particle samples. It utilizes a combination of finite element analysis and Monte Carlo sampling and is based on the Weibull statistical theory. The method is used here to assess the effects of asphericity in particles of two common geometric shapes, i.e. faceted particles and ellipsoidal particles. The method presented could be used to treat particle anomalies other than asphericity.

  4. Radiation pressure cross sections of model fluffy interstellar particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saija, R.; Iatì, M. A.; Giusto, A.; Denti, P.; Borghese, F.; Cecchi-Pestellini, C.; Aiello, S.; Barsella, B.

    Radiation presssure forces affect the dynamical behaviour of dust particles in several astrophysical environments. For a given grain mass and composition, the optical response and the radiation pressure cross sections are critically dependent on morphology. It is likely that interstellar grains take their origin from aggregation of small particles thus resulting in more or less fluffy aggregates. These kind of structures have been widely exploited in the literature by the use of approximate methods (effective medium theories). In this work we computed the radiation pressure cross sections of composite fluffy grains through the transition matrix method considering silicates aggregates made up of a large number of spherical subunits (up to 200). The results obtained, without resorting to any approximation, show that radiation pressure cross sections decrease with increasing particles fluffiness in the near UV-visible range of the spectrum. This is due to the decrease of the corresponding strenght of the multiple scattering processes that couple the aggregated spheres to each other. As a result, the inertial response to radiation forces of highly porous aggregates tends to become similar to that of the constituents particles. These conclusions are in substantial agreement with the results obtained by Mukai et al.(Astron. Astrophys. 262, 315 (1992)). For an analysis of the dynamical behaviour (expulsion from galaxies) of small aggregates see the results presented in this meeting by S. Aiello et al..

  5. Cyclone optimization based on a new empirical model for pressure drop

    SciTech Connect

    Ramachandran, G.; Leith, D. ); Dirgo, J. ); Feldman, H. )

    1991-01-01

    An empirical model for predicting pressure drop across a cyclone, developed by Dirgo is presented. The model was developed through a statistical analysis of pressure drop data for 98 cyclone designs. The model is shown to perform better than the pressure drop models of Shepherd and Lapple, Alexander, First, Stairmand, and Barth. This model is used with the efficiency model of Iozia and Leith to develop an optimization curve which predicts the minimum pressure drop and the dimension ratios of the optimized cyclone for a given aerodynamic cut diameter, d{sub 50}. The effect of variation in cyclone height, cyclone diameter, and flow on the optimization is determined. The optimization results are used to develop a design procedure for optimized cyclones.

  6. Consequences of Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Cardiovascular Risk of Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Whether Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Reduces that Risk.

    PubMed

    Khayat, Rami; Pleister, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is present in up to 25% of otherwise healthy individuals. OSA is associated with intermittent hypoxia, oxidative stress, sympathetic activation, and an inflammatory response. These perturbations mediate the role of OSA as an independent and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). OSA can induce CVD or accelerate the progression of CVD into an end-stage disorder, including heart failure and stroke. Current clinical recommendations are based on existing clinical trial data and the clinical experience of our program; current and future clinical trials will help to optimize management of OSA in the setting of CVD. PMID:27542874

  7. The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

    PubMed

    L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

    2000-03-15

    The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio (<5.5, 5.5 to <6.5, 6.5 to <7.5, > or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure (<90, > or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction. PMID:12000046

  8. A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

    A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

  9. A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

    1991-01-01

    A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

  10. Development and Application of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Sun Min; Stefani, Katherine M.

    2014-01-01

    Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea. PMID:24954311

  11. A new model for polluted soil risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andretta, M.; Serra, R.; Villani, M.

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss the most important theoretical aspects of polluted soil Risk Assessment Methodologies, which have been developed in order to evaluate the risk, for the exposed people, connected with the residual contaminant concentration in polluted soil, and we make a short presentation of the major different kinds of risk assessment methodologies. We also underline the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport models. We also describe a new and innovative model, based on the general framework of the so-called Cellular Automata (CA), initially developed in the UE-Esprit Project COLOMBO for the simulation of bioremediation processes. These kinds of models, for their intrinsic "finite and discrete" characteristics, seem to be very well suited for a detailed analysis of the shape of the pollutant sources, the contaminant fates and the evaluation of target in the risk assessment evaluation. In particular, we will describe the future research activities we are going to develop in the area of a strict integration between pollutant fate and transport models and Risk Analysis Methodologies.

  12. The use of ecosystem models in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Starodub, M.E.; Miller, P.A.; Willes, R.F.

    1994-12-31

    Ecosystem models, when used in conjunction with available environmental effects monitoring data enable informed decisions regarding actions that should be taken to manage ecological risks from areas of localized chemical loadings and accumulation. These models provide quantitative estimates of chemical concentrations in various environmental media. The reliable application of these models as predictive tools for environmental assessment requires a thorough understanding of the theory and mathematical relationships described by the models and demands rigorous validation of input data and model results with field and laboratory data. Food chain model selection should be based on the ability to best simulate the interactions of the food web and processes governing the transfer of chemicals from the dissolved and particulate phase to various trophic levels for the site in question. This requires that the user be familiar with the theories on which these models are based, and be aware of the merits and short comings of each prior to attempting to model food chain accumulation. Questions to be asked include: are all potential exposure pathways addressed? are omitted pathways critical to the risk assessment process? is the model flexible? To answer these questions one must consider the, chemical(s) of concern, site-specific ecosystem characteristics, risk assessment receptor (aquatic, wildlife, human) dietary habits, influence of effluent characteristics on food chain dynamics.

  13. A turbulent burst model for boundary layer flows with pressure gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, L. C.; Benton, D. J.

    The object of this paper is to develop a surface renewal model of the turbulent burst phenomenon for momentum and energy transfer in the wall region for turbulent boundary layer flows with pressure gradient. In addition to obtaining inner laws for the distributions in velocity and temperature, predictions are obtained for the effect of pressure gradient on the mean burst frequency and on the turbulent Prandtl number within the wall region for slight favorable and mild adverse pressure gradients.

  14. Method for Standardizing Sonic-Boom Model Pressure Signatures Measured at Several Wind-Tunnel Facilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mack, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Low-boom model pressure signatures are often measured at two or more wind-tunnel facilities. Preliminary measurements are made at small separation distances in a wind tunnel close at hand, and a second set of pressure signatures is measured at larger separation distances in a wind-tunnel facility with a larger test section. In this report, a method for correcting and standardizing the wind-tunnel-measured pressure signatures obtained in different wind tunnel facilities is presented and discussed.

  15. Tests of models equipped with TPS in low speed ONERA F1 pressurized wind tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leynaert, J.

    1992-09-01

    The particular conditions of tests of models equipped with a turbofan powered simulator (TPS) at high Reynolds numbers in a pressurized wind tunnel are presented. The high-pressure air supply system of the wind tunnel, the equipment of the balance with the high-pressure traversing flow and its calibration, and the thrust calibration method of the TPS and its verification in the wind tunnel are described.

  16. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  17. A model to determine the behaviour of a pressure measurement equipment during non-static operations of gasturbine engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemmer, K.-U.; Hass, J.

    1987-05-01

    A mathematical model was developed to describe the behavior of a pressure measurement equipment of gas-turbine engines during nonstatic operations. The model determines the influence of the components of the measuring chain: a pressure measuring transducer, a hose pipe, and a pressure probe. It performs back calculations from the measured pressure signals to the real measuring value. The model was verified by pressure measurements with a calibrating device. The pressure measurements during the transition between different operating points of a gas-turbine engine and the adjustment of these pressure values with the help of the measuring-chain model are described.

  18. Relationship of blood pressure with some cardiovascular disease risk factors in a rural population of Plateau State, North Central Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Okeahialam, Basil N.; Ogbonna, Chikaike; Joseph, Dele E.; Chuhwak, Evelyn K.; Isiguzoro, Ikechukwu O.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Hypertension is associated with certain cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors which vary from one place to the other depending on community sophistication. We decided to obtain the situation as it affects this rural Nigerian community to be in an evidence-based position to initiate individual and group prevention strategies. Design: Cross-sectional population survey. Materials and Methods: We surveyed for CVD risk factors among subjects 15 years and above in this rural community using a questionnaire requesting personal, medical and anthropometric information. One in three of them were randomly assigned to laboratory investigations. Results: Of the 840 subjects studied, 25% were males. The population mean age was 45.5 (18.2) standard deviation (SD), with 1.8% smokers and 4.1% using alcohol. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) correlated with age, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol (TC) and uric acid (UA); while diastolic blood pressure (DBP) correlated with age, BMI, TC, UA and atherogenic index (AI). SBP and DBP improved with exercise but not salt intake. The local seasonings used in cooking had no impact on blood pressure. Conclusion: To reduce cardiovascular morbidity in this and probably other rural sub-Saharan African communities, BMI, TC, UA and salt intake in diet should be targeted for reduction. Physical activity should be encouraged. Interestingly, these fall into the sphere of healthy lifestyle which should be encouraged and re-inforced. PMID:26229231

  19. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  20. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  1. Non-destructive estimation of root pressure using sap flow, stem diameter measurements and mechanistic modelling

    PubMed Central

    De Swaef, Tom; Hanssens, Jochen; Cornelis, Annelies; Steppe, Kathy

    2013-01-01

    Background Upward water movement in plants via the xylem is generally attributed to the cohesion–tension theory, as a response to transpiration. Under certain environmental conditions, root pressure can also contribute to upward xylem water flow. Although the occurrence of root pressure is widely recognized, ambiguity exists about the exact mechanism behind root pressure, the main influencing factors and the consequences of root pressure. In horticultural crops, such as tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), root pressure is thought to cause cells to burst, and to have an important impact on the marketable yield. Despite the challenges of root pressure research, progress in this area is limited, probably because of difficulties with direct measurement of root pressure, prompting the need for indirect and non-destructive measurement techniques. Methods A new approach to allow non-destructive and non-invasive estimation of root pressure is presented, using continuous measurements of sap flow and stem diameter variation in tomato combined with a mechanistic flow and storage model, based on cohesion–tension principles. Key Results Transpiration-driven sap flow rates are typically inversely related to stem diameter changes; however, this inverse relationship was no longer valid under conditions of low transpiration. This decoupling between sap flow rates and stem diameter variations was mathematically related to root pressure. Conclusions Root pressure can be estimated in a non-destructive, repeatable manner, using only external plant sensors and a mechanistic model. PMID:23211757

  2. Concern, pressure and lack of knowledge affect choice of not wanting to know high-risk status.

    PubMed

    Swartling, Ulrica; Eriksson, Stefan; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Helgesson, Gert

    2007-05-01

    The 'right not to know' one's genetic status has been increasingly more recognised in ethical and legal instruments. Yet empirical research is limited, leaving discussion on a theoretical level. There are also divergent ideas as to what extent it should be respected. In this study, we explored the clinical preconditions for disclosure of increased risk of getting diabetes in children. We included questions in the clinical 5-year questionnaire of a predictive screening for the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1DM), asking the respondents (n=7206) whether they wished to be informed of their children's potential risk status. The group of 2% of the respondents who did not want to know about risk status proved to be significantly associated to concern with natural history data (OR 4.03), lack of knowledge (OR 3.17), pressure to participate (OR 2.99) and the child's disease development (OR 2.18). We discuss whether parents'/participants' 'no' to high-risk information may call for a more nuanced response such as information and support, rather than simply respect their wish not to know. We furthermore argue that it is ethically questionable whether the parents' expressed wish not to know should prima facie override the potential benefits for their child. We conclude that this constitutes sufficient reason not to promote a default solution where people's expressed wishes not to know are taken at face value. PMID:17311083

  3. Has Microsoft® Left Behind Risk Modeling in Cardiac and Thoracic Surgery?

    PubMed Central

    Poullis, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Abstract: This concept paper examines a number of key areas central to quality and risk assessment in cardiac surgery. The effect of surgeon and institutional factors with regard to outcomes in cardiac surgery is utilized to demonstrate the need to sub analyze cardiac surgeons performance in a more sophisticated manner than just operation type and patient risk factors, as in current risk models. By utilizing the mathematical/engineering concept of Fourier analysis in the breakdown of cardiac surgical results the effects of each of the core components that makes up the care package of a patient’s experiences are examined. The core components examined include: institutional, regional, patient, and surgeon effects. The limitations of current additive (Parsonnet, Euroscore) and logistic (Euroscore, Southern Thoracic Society) regression risk analysis techniques are discussed. The inadequacy of current modeling techniques is demonstrated via the use of known medical formula for calculating flow in the internal mammary artery and the calculation of blood pressure. By examining the fundamental limitations of current risk analysis techniques a new technique is proposed that embraces modern software computer technology via the use of structured query language. PMID:21449233

  4. Are Masking-Based Models of Risk Useful?

    PubMed

    Gisiner, Robert C

    2016-01-01

    As our understanding of directly observable effects from anthropogenic sound exposure has improved, concern about "unobservable" effects such as stress and masking have received greater attention. Equal energy models of masking such as power spectrum models have the appeal of simplicity, but do they offer biologically realistic assessments of the risk of masking? Data relevant to masking such as critical ratios, critical bandwidths, temporal resolution, and directional resolution along with what is known about general mammalian antimasking mechanisms all argue for a much more complicated view of masking when making decisions about the risk of masking inherent in a given anthropogenic sound exposure scenario. PMID:26610979

  5. A dynamical systems model for nuclear power plant risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hess, Stephen Michael

    The recent transition to an open access generation marketplace has forced nuclear plant operators to become much more cost conscious and focused on plant performance. Coincidentally, the regulatory perspective also is in a state of transition from a command and control framework to one that is risk-informed and performance-based. Due to these structural changes in the economics and regulatory system associated with commercial nuclear power plant operation, there is an increased need for plant management to explicitly manage nuclear safety risk. Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to model plant hardware has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events and equipment failures that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has supported improved plant operation and safety over the previous decade. However, this analytical approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. Thus, the research described in this dissertation presents a different approach to address this issue. Here we propose a dynamical model that describes the interaction of important plant processes among themselves and their overall impact on nuclear safety risk. We first provide a review of the techniques that are applied in a conventional probabilistic risk assessment of commercially operating nuclear power plants and summarize the typical results obtained. The limitations of the conventional approach and the status of research previously performed to address these limitations also are presented. Next, we present the case for the application of an alternative approach using dynamical systems theory. This includes a discussion of previous applications of dynamical models to study other important socio-economic issues. Next, we review the analytical techniques that are applicable to analysis of

  6. Non-Gaussian PDF Modeling of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure Excitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinwolf, Alexander; Rizzi, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate properties of the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the exterior of a supersonic transport aircraft. It is shown that fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for surface conditions having no significant discontinuities. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations upstream of forward-facing step discontinuities and downstream of aft-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. Various analytical PDF distributions are used and further developed to model this behavior.

  7. Assessing Landslide Risk Areas Using Statistical Models and Land Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H. G.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Ahn, Y.; Sung, S.; Park, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, damages due to landslides have increased in Republic of Korea. Extreme weathers like typhoon, heavy rainfall related to climate change are the main factor of the damages. Especially, Inje-gun, Gangwon-do had severe landslide damages in 2006 and 2007. In Inje-gun, 91% areas are forest, therefore, many land covers related to human activities were adjacent to forest land. Thus, establishment of adaptation plans to landslides was urgently needed. Landslide risk assessment can serve as a good information to policy makers. The objective of this study was assessing landslide risk areas to support establishment of adaptation plans to reduce landslide damages. Statistical distribution models (SDMs) were used to evaluate probability of landslide occurrence. Various SDMs were used to make landslide probability maps considering uncertainty of SDMs. The types of land cover were classified into 5 grades considering vulnerable level to landslide. The landslide probability maps were overlaid with land cover map to calculate landslide risk. As a result of overlay analysis, lands