Science.gov

Sample records for production economic models

  1. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  2. Analyzing Company Economics Using the Leontief Open Production Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laumakis, Paul J.

    2008-01-01

    This article details the application of an economic theory to the fiscal operation of a small engineering consulting firm. Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief developed his general input-output economic theory in the mid-twentieth century to describe the flow of goods and services in the U.S. economy. We use one mathematical model that…

  3. Economic production quantity (EPQ) models under an imperfect production process with shortages backordered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Lie-Fern; Hsu, Jia-Tzer

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we develop economic production quantity (EPQ) models to determine the optimal production lot size and backorder quantity for a manufacturer under an imperfect production process. The imperfect production process is characterised by the fraction of defective items at the time of production γ. The paper considers different cases of the EPQ model depending on (1) whether γ is known with certainty or is a random variable, and (2) whether imperfect items are drawn from inventory (a) as they are detected, (b) at the end of each production period or (c) at the end of each production cycle. Straightforward convexity results are shown and closed-form solutions are provided for the optimal order and backorder quantities for each of the cases we considered. We provide two numerical examples: one in which the defective probability follows a uniform distribution and the second which we assume follows a beta distribution, to illustrate the effects of yield variability and timing of the withdrawal of defectives on the optimal solutions. We obtain similar results for both numerical examples, which show that both the yield variability and the withdrawal timing are not critical factors.

  4. Designing Adaptive Artificial Agents for an Economic Production and Conflict Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassani-M, Behrooz; Parris, Brett W.

    Production and conflict models have been used over the past 30 years to represent the effects of unproductive resource allocation in economics. Their major applications are in modelling the assignment of property rights, rent-seeking and defense economics. This paper describes the process of designing an agent used in a production and conflict model. Using the capabilities of an agent-based approach to economic modelling, we have enriched a simple decision-maker of the kind used in classic general equilibrium economic models, to build an adaptive and interactive agent which uses its own attributes, its neighbors' parameters and information from its environment to make resource allocation decisions. Our model presents emergent and adaptive behaviors than cannot be captured using classic production and conflict agents. Some possible extensions for future applications are also recommended.

  5. Evaluation of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuuskraa, V.A.; Hammersheimb, E.; Sawyer, W.

    1985-05-01

    The objective of the work performed under this directive is to assess whether gas hydrates could potentially be technically and economically recoverable. The technical potential and economics of recovering gas from a representative hydrate reservoir will be established using the cyclic thermal injection model, HYDMOD, appropriately modified for this effort, integrated with economics model for gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, and in the deep offshore Atlantic. The results from this effort are presented in this document. In Section 1, the engineering cost and financial analysis model used in performing the economic analysis of gas production from hydrates -- the Hydrates Gas Economics Model (HGEM) -- is described. Section 2 contains a users guide for HGEM. In Section 3, a preliminary economic assessment of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model is presented. Section 4 contains a summary critique of existing hydrate gas recovery models. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the model modification made to HYDMOD, the cyclic thermal injection model for hydrate gas recovery, in order to perform this analysis.

  6. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  7. A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production systems.

    PubMed

    Groen, A F; Jiang, X; Emmerson, D A; Vereijken, A

    1998-07-01

    A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production and the derivation of economic values in broiler breeding was developed and tested. The model distinguishes four production stages: multiplier breeder, hatchery, commercial grower, and processor. The processor is included to determine relationships for the price per kilogram of live weight and the quality of the carcass, either on a "whole sale" or "further processed" base. Quantity of product output for the system is fixed by a predetermined amount of kilogram carcass of final product broilers finished by the commercial grower. Profitability of production and cost prices per unit product for subsequent stages can be calculated. Exogenous parameters are easily changeable in order to calculate profitability and cost prices for different production levels or production circumstances. Economic values can be derived considering influences of changes in genetic merit for performance traits on profitability or cost price, for integrated and nonintegrated production systems. By changing exogenous parameters, the model can also be used to analyze profitability or derive economic values for other meat-type poultry, such as turkey. PMID:9657599

  8. From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Joohoan

    Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the commodity production:…

  9. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  10. An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

  11. Evaluation of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model. [Cyclic thermal injection

    SciTech Connect

    Kuuskraa, V.A.; Hammersheimb, E.; Sawyer, W.

    1985-05-01

    The objective of the work performed under this directive is to assess whether gas hydrates could potentially be technically and economically recoverable. The technical potential and economics of recovering gas from a representative hydrate reservoir will be established using the cyclic thermal injection model, HYDMOD, appropriately modified for this effort, integrated with economics model for gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, and in the deep offshore Atlantic. The results from this effort are presented in this document. In Section 1, the engineering cost and financial analysis model used in performing the economic analysis of gas production from hydrates -- the Hydrates Gas Economics Model (HGEM) -- is described. Section 2 contains a users guide for HGEM. In Section 3, a preliminary economic assessment of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model is presented. Section 4 contains a summary critique of existing hydrate gas recovery models. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the model modification made to HYDMOD, the cyclic thermal injection model for hydrate gas recovery, in order to perform this analysis.

  12. Comparative Research Productivity Measures for Economic Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huettner, David A.; Clark, William

    1997-01-01

    Develops a simple theoretical model to evaluate interdisciplinary differences in research productivity between economics departments and related subjects. Compares the research publishing statistics of economics, finance, psychology, geology, physics, oceanography, chemistry, and geophysics. Considers a number of factors including journal…

  13. Applying complex models to poultry production in the future--economics and biology.

    PubMed

    Talpaz, H; Cohen, M; Fancher, B; Halley, J

    2013-09-01

    The ability to determine the optimal broiler feed nutrient density that maximizes margin over feeding cost (MOFC) has obvious economic value. To determine optimal feed nutrient density, one must consider ingredient prices, meat values, the product mix being marketed, and the projected biological performance. A series of 8 feeding trials was conducted to estimate biological responses to changes in ME and amino acid (AA) density. Eight different genotypes of sex-separate reared broilers were fed diets varying in ME (2,723-3,386 kcal of ME/kg) and AA (0.89-1.65% digestible lysine with all essential AA acids being indexed to lysine) levels. Broilers were processed to determine carcass component yield at many different BW (1.09-4.70 kg). Trial data generated were used in model constructed to discover the dietary levels of ME and AA that maximize MOFC on a per broiler or per broiler annualized basis (bird × number of cycles/year). The model was designed to estimate the effects of dietary nutrient concentration on broiler live weight, feed conversion, mortality, and carcass component yield. Estimated coefficients from the step-wise regression process are subsequently used to predict the optimal ME and AA concentrations that maximize MOFC. The effects of changing feed or meat prices across a wide spectrum on optimal ME and AA levels can be evaluated via parametric analysis. The model can rapidly compare both biological and economic implications of changing from current practice to the simulated optimal solution. The model can be exploited to enhance decision making under volatile market conditions. PMID:23960140

  14. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. I: bio-economic model development and application to smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson M; Rewe, Thomas O; Kahi, Alexander K

    2015-02-01

    A deterministic bio-economic model was developed and applied to evaluate biological and economic variables that characterize smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Two pig production systems were considered namely, semi-intensive (SI) and extensive (EX). The input variables were categorized into biological variables including production and functional traits, nutritional variables, management variables and economic variables. The model factored the various sow physiological systems including gestation, farrowing, lactation, growth and development. The model was developed to evaluate a farrow to finish operation, but the results were customized to account for a farrow to weaner operation for a comparative analysis. The operations were defined as semi-intensive farrow to finish (SIFF), semi-intensive farrow to weaner (SIFW), extensive farrow to finish (EXFF) and extensive farrow to weaner (EXFW). In SI, the profits were the highest at KES. 74,268.20 per sow per year for SIFF against KES. 4026.12 for SIFW. The corresponding profits for EX were KES. 925.25 and KES. 626.73. Feed costs contributed the major part of the total costs accounting for 67.0, 50.7, 60.5 and 44.5 % in the SIFF, SIFW, EXFF and EXFW operations, respectively. The bio-economic model developed could be extended with modifications for use in deriving economic values for breeding goal traits for pigs under smallholder production systems in other parts of the tropics. PMID:25388212

  15. Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, G.

    2015-12-01

    Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

  16. Arctic Economics Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1995-03-01

    AEM (Arctic Economics Model) for oil and gas was developed to provide an analytic framework for understanding the arctic area resources. It provides the capacity for integrating the resource and technology information gathered by the arctic research and development (R&D) program, measuring the benefits of alternaive R&D programs, and providing updated estimates of the future oil and gas potential from arctic areas. AEM enables the user to examine field or basin-level oil and gas recovery,more » costs, and economics. It provides a standard set of selected basin-specified input values or allows the user to input their own values. AEM consists of five integrated submodels: geologic/resource submodel, which distributes the arctic resource into 15 master regions, consisting of nine arctic offshore regions, three arctic onshore regions, and three souhtern Alaska (non-arctic) regions; technology submodel, which selects the most appropriate exploration and production structure (platform) for each arctic basin and water depth; oil and gas production submodel, which contains the relationship of per well recovery as a function of field size, production decline curves, and production decline curves by product; engineering costing and field development submodel, which develops the capital and operating costs associated with arctic oil and gas development; and the economics submodel, which captures the engineering costs and development timing and links these to oil and gas prices, corporate taxes and tax credits, depreciation, and timing of investment. AEM provides measures of producible oil and gas, costs, and ecomonic viability under alternative technology or financial conditions.« less

  17. Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andrews, J.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

  18. Economics of hydrogen production

    SciTech Connect

    Gaines, L.L.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Much of the current interest in hydrogen (H/sub 2/) centers around its potential to displace oil and gas as a fuel. The results of this study should be useful to research and development managers making funding decisions, and they should also be of interest to energy analysts, economists, and proponents of a hydrogen economy. We examined the current costs of H/sub 2/ produced by commercially available technologies (from fossil fuels and by electrolysis) and projected these costs to 2010, to set cost goals for H/sub 2/ produced via new technologies. We also examined the sensitivity of H/sub 2/ costs to varying energy price forecasts, capital costs and the required rate of return on investment, and by-product credits. We find that conventionally produced H/sub 2/ will not break into the fuel market before 2010. 23 references, 19 figures, 12 tables.

  19. Mycotoxins in ethanol co-products: modeling economic impacts on the livestock industry and management strategies.

    PubMed

    Wu, Felicia; Munkvold, Gary P

    2008-06-11

    The rapidly expanding U.S. ethanol industry is generating a growing supply of co-products, mostly in the form of dried distillers' grain and solubles (DDGS) or wet distillers' grains (WDG). In the United States, 90% of the co-products of maize-based ethanol are fed to livestock. An unintended consequence is that animals are likely to be fed higher levels of mycotoxins, which are concentrated up to three times in DDGS compared to grain. The model developed in this study estimates current losses to the swine industry from weight gain reduction due to fumonisins in added DDGS at $9 million ($2-18 million) annually. If there is complete market penetration of DDGS in swine feed with 20% DDGS inclusion in swine feed and fumonisins are not controlled, losses may increase to $147 million ($29-293 million) annually. These values represent only those losses attributable to one mycotoxin on one adverse outcome on one species. The total loss due to mycotoxins in DDGS could be significantly higher due to additive or multiplicative effects of multiple mycotoxins on animal health. If mycotoxin surveillance is implemented by ethanol producers, losses are shifted among multiple stakeholders. Solutions to this problem include methods to reduce mycotoxin contamination in both pre- and postharvest maize. PMID:18444660

  20. Habitat Size Optimization of the O'Neill - Glaser Economic Model for Space Solar Satellite Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Detweiler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Creating large space habitats by launching all materials from Earth is prohibitively expensive. Using space resources and space based labor to build space solar power satellites can yield extraordinary profits after a few decades. The economic viability of this program depends on the use of space resources and space labor. To maximize the return on the investment, the early use of high density bolo habitats is required. Other shapes do not allow for the small initial scale required for a quick population increase in space. This study found that 5 Man Year, or 384 person bolo high density habitats will be the most economically feasible for a program started at year 2010 and will cause a profit by year 24 of the program, put over 45,000 people into space, and create a large system of space infrastructure for the further exploration and development of space.

  1. Conversion of bioprocess ethanol to industrial chemical products - Applications of process models for energy-economic assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rohatgi, Naresh K.; Ingham, John D.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment approach for accurate evaluation of bioprocesses for large-scale production of industrial chemicals is presented. Detailed energy-economic assessments of a potential esterification process were performed, where ethanol vapor in the presence of water from a bioreactor is catalytically converted to ethyl acetate. Results show that such processes are likely to become more competitive as the cost of substrates decreases relative to petrolium costs. A commercial ASPEN process simulation provided a reasonably consistent comparison with energy economics calculated using JPL developed software. Detailed evaluations of the sensitivity of production cost to material costs and annual production rates are discussed.

  2. The economics of food production.

    PubMed

    Upton, M

    1993-01-01

    Although world average food production per person is increasing there are many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where production has fallen in recent decades. The economic analysis of the world food problem concerns the dynamics of production, income, growth, demand and trade. The 'law of diminishing returns' suggests that labour incomes fall as population density increases. Capital investment and technological change, particularly with a land-saving bias, can overcome this effect. Such land-saving innovations are less appropriate where population densities are lower, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Innovations which reduce risk, such as stress- and disease-resistant crop varieties, may be more attractive to farmers. Communal or government action is required to ensure sustainability of food production; to reduce risk, through price stabilization, possibly crop insurance and contingency plans for famine relief; to promote equity and to ensure competitive market conditions. Public funding of agricultural research is necessary to promote growth in food supplies. If increases in supply do not keep pace with growth in demand, food prices rise, attracting resources into food production. If supply grows faster, food prices and farm incomes fall, driving resources out of agriculture. Resources may not move fast enough to correct imbalances. Primary producers are likely to face deteriorating terms of trade. Linkages between food production and other sectors are weak, so primary exports are not a good basis for economic development. Import substitution strategies may damage agriculture. Structural adjustment regimes have been adopted in some countries to correct imbalances and provide an incentive for farmers to increase production. Associated reductions in public expenditure may have a contrary impact. PMID:8149829

  3. Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, R. D.

    2003-04-01

    Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

  4. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  5. Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various sheep production types in the UK and France

    PubMed Central

    Alarcon, Pablo; Häsler, Barbara; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Corbière, Fabien; Rushton, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective The present study aimed to estimate and compare the economic impact of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in different sheep production holdings using partial budget and gross margin analyses in combination with production models. Participants The sheep production types considered were lowland spring lambing, upland spring lambing and early lambing flocks in the UK, and grass lamb flocks of the Centre and West of France, extensive lambing flocks and dairy sheep flocks in France. Methodology Two disease scenarios with distinct input parameters associated with reproductive problems were considered: low and high impact. Sensitivity analyses were performed for the most uncertain input parameters, and the models were run with all of the lowest and highest values to estimate the range of disease impact. Results The estimated net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the UK was £19.65–£20.85 for the high impact scenario and £6.40–£6.58 for the low impact scenario. No major differences were observed between the different production types. For France, the net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the meat sheep holdings was £15.59–£17.20 for the high impact scenario and £4.75–£5.26 for the low impact scenario. For the dairy sheep, the costs per year and ewe were £29.81 for the high impact scenario and £10.34 for the low impact scenario. Conclusions The models represent a useful decision support tool for farmers and veterinarians who are facing decisions regarding disease control measures. They allow estimating disease impact on a farm accounting for differing production practices, which creates the necessary basis for cost effectiveness analysis of intervention strategies, such as vaccination. PMID:26392876

  6. Techno Economic Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2010-04-01

    The Technoeconomic model is a computational model of a lignocellulosic biorefinery that can be used by industry to establish benchmarks of performance and risk-benefit analysis in order to assess the potential impact of cutting edge technologies. The model can be used to evaluate, guide, and optimize research efforts, biorefinery design, and process operation. The model will help to reduce the risk of commercial investment and development of biorefineries and help steer future research to thosemore » parts of the refining process in need of further developments for biofuels to be cost competitive. We have now aded modules for the following sections: feed handling, pretreatment, fermentation, product and water recovery, waste treatment, and steam/electricity generation. We have incorporated a kinetic model for microorganism growth and production of ethanol, inclouding toxin inhibition. For example, the feed handling section incorporates information regarding feedstock transport distance-dependent costs. The steam and electricity generation section now includes a turbogenerator that supplies power to be used by other unit operations and contains equations for efficiency calculations.« less

  7. Gary Becker: Model Economic Scientist

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents Gary Becker’s approach to conducting creative, empirically fruitful economic research. It describes the traits and methodology that made him such a productive and influential scholar. PMID:26705367

  8. Economics of Gypsum Production in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim

    The purpose of this research is to analyze the economics of gypsum production in Iran. The trend in production cost, selling price and profit are used to investigate economics of gypsum production. In addition, the multivariate time series method is used to determine factors affecting gypsum price in domestic market. The results indicated that due to increase in production and inflation, profitability of gypsum production has decreased during recent years. It is concluded that tariff and non-tariff barriers on mines machinery are among reasons for increasing production cost in Iranian gypsum mines. Decreasing such barriers could increase profitability of gypsum production in Iran.

  9. Behavioral externalities in natural resource production possibility frontiers: integrating biology and economics to model human-wildlife interactions.

    PubMed

    McCoy, N H

    2003-09-01

    Production possibility modeling has been applied to a variety of wildlife management issues. Although it has seen only limited employment in modeling human-wildlife output decisions, it can be expected that the theory's use in this area will increase as human interactions with and impacts on wildlife become more frequent. At present, most models applying production possibility theory to wildlife production can be characterized in that wildlife output quantities are determined by physically quantifiable functions representing rivalrous resources. When the theory is applied to human-wildlife interactions, it may not be sufficient to model the production tradeoffs using only physical constraints. As wildlife are known to respond to human presence, it could be expected that human activity may appear in wildlife production functions as an externality. Behavioral externalities are revealed by an output's response to the presence of another output and can result in a loss of concavity of the production possibilities frontier. Ignoring the potential of a behavioral externality can result in an unexpected and inefficient output allocation that may compromise a wildlife population's well-being. Behavioral externalities can be included in PPF models in a number of ways, including the use of data or cumulative effects modeling. While identifying that behavioral externalities exist and incorporating them into a model is important, correctly interpreting their implications will be critical to improve the efficiency of natural resource management. Behavioral externalities may cause a loss of concavity anywhere along a PPF that may compel managerial decisions that are inconsistent with multiple use doctrines. Convex PPFs may result when wildlife species are extremely sensitive to any level of human activity. It may be possible to improve the PPF's concavity by reducing the strength of the behavioral effect. Any change in the PPF that increases the convexity of the production set

  10. Economical Production of Pu-238

    SciTech Connect

    Steven D. Howe; Douglas Crawford; Jorge Navarro; Terry Ring

    2013-02-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238. The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100 M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. The new process will also produce dramatically less waste. Potentially, the front end costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. Under a NASA Phase I NIAC grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce at least 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. In addition, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  11. Switchgrass: Production, Economics, and Net Energy

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The critical questions for a biomass bioenergy production system are: • What are the economics? • Is energy from biomass net energy positive? • Is production system information available and verified? • Is the system sustainable? To address these questions, ten farmers in the mid-continental USA w...

  12. High titer L-lactic acid production from corn stover with minimum wastewater generation and techno-economic evaluation based on Aspen plus modeling.

    PubMed

    Liu, Gang; Sun, Jiaoe; Zhang, Jian; Tu, Yi; Bao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    Technological potentials of l-lactic acid production from corn stover feedstock were investigated by experimental and techno-economic studies. An optimal performance with 104.5 g/L in l-lactic acid titer and 71.5% in overall yield from cellulose in corn stover to l-lactic acid using an engineered Pediococcus acidilactici strain were obtained by overcoming several technical barriers. A rigorous Aspen plus model for l-lactic acid production starting from dry dilute acid pretreated and biodetoxified corn stover was developed. The techno-economic analysis shows that the minimum l-lactic acid selling price (MLSP) was $0.523 per kg, which was close to that of the commercial l-lactic acid produced from starch feedstock, and 24% less expensive than that of ethanol from corn stover, even though the xylose utilization was not considered. The study provided a prototype of industrial application and an evaluation model for high titer l-lactic acid production from lignocellulose feedstock. PMID:26454367

  13. An investment-production-regulatory model for firms in the offshore oil and gas industry. [Economic effects of proposed environmental regulations

    SciTech Connect

    Jin Di.

    1991-01-01

    This tripartite study examines the economic consequences of proposed environmental regulations on firms in the OCS oil and gas industry. The background part reviews the major issues associated with OCS oil and gas development and relevant environmental regulatory proposals. In the theoretical part, models are developed using optimal control theory and the theory of nonrenewable resources to analyze the impact of rising compliance cost on firm's behavior in terms of the investment and production rates over time. Finally, in the simulation part, an integrated investment-production-regulatory model is developed to simulate OCS development with and without the proposed environmental regulations. Effects of regulations are measured in terms of an increase in compliance costs and the associated reduction in net profits from oil and gas production. The theoretical results indicate that an increase in compliance costs will alter exploration, development and production rates. The total investments in exploration and development, and oil production will decrease as a result of rising compliance costs for exploration, development and production over the entire planning period.

  14. The behavioral economics of production.

    PubMed Central

    Allison, J; English, J

    1993-01-01

    In two experiments, thirsty rats licked an empty spout instrumentally for water delivered at a neighboring spout. Each such pair of spouts constituted a work station, and one, two, or three stations were available in the test enclosure. In 1-hr sessions, the rats worked alone or in the company of 1 or 2 other rats, and performed either five, 10, or 40 licks at the empty spout for each water delivery. The total number of empty-spout licks, summed across rats and stations, increased with the empty-lick requirement and, with some exceptions, the number of rats in the enclosure and the number of work stations available. A Cobb-Douglas production function, with instrumental responding as an output and the three independent variables as inputs, accounted for a significant percentage of the variance. Contrary to that function, output failed to increase with additional rats (or work stations) when the number of work stations (or rats) was relatively small. PMID:8283148

  15. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    PubMed

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  16. Impact of eradicating hepatitis C virus on the work productivity of chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) patients: an economic model from five European countries.

    PubMed

    Younossi, Z; Brown, A; Buti, M; Fagiuoli, S; Mauss, S; Rosenberg, W; Serfaty, L; Srivastava, A; Smith, N; Stepanova, M; Beckerman, R

    2016-03-01

    CH-C negatively affects work productivity (WP), creating a large economic burden. The aim of this study was to model the impact of sustained virologic response (SVR) on WP in CHC genotype 1 (GT1) patients in five European countries (EU5). Work Productivity and Activity Index-Specific Health Problem questionnaire was administered to patients across the ION clinical trials (n = 629 European patients). The analysis modelled a population of GT1 CHC patients over one year, who had been either not treated or treated with LDV/SOF. Sensitivity analyses assessed the possibility that CHC patients' labour costs were lower than the general population's and presented results by fibrosis stage. Before initiation of treatment, EU patients with CHC GT1 exhibited absenteeism and presenteeism impairments of 3.54% and 9.12%, respectively. About 91.8% of EU patients in the ION trials achieved SVR and improved absenteeism and presenteeism impairments by 16.3% and 19.5%, respectively. Monetizing these data, treatment with LDV/SOF resulted in an annual productivity gain of €435 million and a weighted average per-employed patient (PEP) gain of €900 in the EU5. PEP gains from treatment are projected to be higher in cirrhotic than in noncirrhotic patients. If CHC patients are assumed to earn 20% less than the general population, gains of €348 million (€720 PEP) annually are projected. CHC results in a significant economic burden to European society. Due to improvements in WP, SVR with treatment could provide substantial economic gains, partly offsetting the direct costs related to its widespread use. PMID:26482680

  17. Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

  18. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgenson, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  19. Ohio Economics: K-12 Model Course of Study in Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio Council on Economic Education.

    The K-12 Model Course of Study in Economics (MCSE) provides Ohio school district personnel with assistance in the development and implementation of economics courses of study for kindergarten through twelfth grade. The guide also offers information to help readers integrate economics into their curricula across disciplines. In addition to an…

  20. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    PubMed

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

  1. Economic model of OPEC coalition

    SciTech Connect

    Razavi, H.

    1984-10-01

    Efforts to formulate the economic behavior of OPEC are complicated because the coalition is made up of member countries, each of which pursues a different objective, arrives at its own optimum price and quantity, and has an opportunity to participate in a group consensus. This requires a new cartel model that will explain the coalitionary process, yet remain flexible enough to consider the diverse objectives of individual members. The author analyzes the possibility of realizing this consensus in relation to the differing politico-economic structures of the members. He concludes that the long-run stability of OPEC requires reversing some historical patterns, although offsetting effects may avoid a short-term instability. 19 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.

  2. DSEM. Disposal Site Economic Model

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, P.R.

    1989-01-01

    The DISPOSAL SITE ECONOMIC MODEL calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development.

  3. Ethanol production: energy, economic, and environmental losses.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, David; Patzek, Tad; Cecil, Gerald

    2007-01-01

    The prime focus of ethanol production from corn is to replace the imported oil used in American vehicles, without expending more fossil energy in ethanol production than is produced as ethanol energy. In a thorough and up-to-date evaluation of all the fossil energy costs of ethanol production from corn, every step in the production and conversion process must be included. In this study, 14 energy inputs in average U.S. corn production are included. Then, in the fermentation/distillation operation, 9 more identified fossil fuel inputs are included. Some energy and economic credits are given for the by-products, including dried distillers grains (DDG). Based on all the fossil energy inputs, a total of 1.43 kcal fossil energy is expended to produced 1 kcal ethanol. When the energy value of the DDG, based on the feed value of the DDG as compared to that of soybean meal, is considered, the energy cost of ethanol production is reduced slightly, to 1.28 kcal fossil energy input per 1 kcal ethanol produced. Several proethanol investigators have overlooked various energy inputs in U.S. corn production, including farm machinery, processing machinery, and the use of hybrid corn. In other studies, unrealistic, low energy costs were attributed to such inputs as nitrogen fertilizer, insecticides, and herbicides. Controversy continues concerning the energy and economic credits that should be assigned to the by-products. The U.S. Department of Energy reports that 17.0 billion L ethanol was produced in 2005. This represents only less than 1% of total oil use in the U.S. These yields are based on using about 18% of total U.S. corn production and 18% of cornland. Because the production of ethanol requires large inputs of both oil and natural gas in production, the U.S. is importing both oil and natural gas to produce ethanol. Furthermore, the U.S. Government is spending about dollar 3 billion annually to subsidize ethanol production, a subsidy of dollar 0.79/L ethanol produced. With

  4. Controlling chaos in an economic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Liang; Chen, Guanrong

    2007-01-01

    A Cournot duopoly, with a bounded inverse demand function and different constant marginal production costs, can be modeled as a discrete-time dynamical system, which exhibits complex bifurcating and chaotic behaviors. Based on some essential features of the model, we show how bifurcation and chaos can be controlled via the delayed feedback control method. We then propose and evaluate an adaptive parameter-tuning algorithm for control. In addition, we discuss possible economic implications of the chaos control strategies described in the paper.

  5. Economic aspects of amino acids production.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Udo; Huebner, Susanna

    2003-01-01

    Amino acids represent basic elements of proteins, which as a main source of nutrition themselves serve as a major reserve for maintaining essential functions of humans as well as animals. Taking the recent state of scientific knowledge into account, the industrial sector of amino acids is a priori "suitable" to a specific kind of an ecologically sound way of production, which is based on biotechnology. The following article may point out characteristics of this particular industrial sector and illustrates the applicability of the latest economic methods, founded on development of the discipline of bionics in order to describe economic aspects of amino acids markets. The several biochemical and technological fields of application of amino acids lead to specific market structures in high developed and permanently evolving systems. The Harvard tradition of industrial economics explains how market structures mould the behaviour of the participants and influences market results beyond that. A global increase in intensity of competition confirms the notion that the supply-side is characterised by asymmetric information in contrast to Kantzenbachs concept of "narrow oligopoly" with symmetrical shared knowledge about market information. Departing from this point, certain strategies of companies in this market form shall be derived. The importance of Research and Development increases rapidly and leads to innovative manufacturing methods which replace more polluting manufacturing processes like acid hydrolysis. In addition to these modifications within the production processes the article deals furthermore with the pricing based on product life cycle concept and introduces specific applications of tools like activity based costing and target costing to the field of amino acid production. The authors come to the conclusion that based on a good transferability of latest findings in bionics and ecological compatibility competitors in amino acids manufacturing are well advised

  6. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  7. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  8. Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.

    PubMed

    Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in

  9. Scleroglucan biopolymer production, properties, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Compere, A. L.; Griffith, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Production and solution properties which may make scleroglucan polysaccharide economically advantageous for onsite production and use in tertiary oil recovery were investigated. Scleroglucan, which is similar in viscosity and shear thinning to xanthan, can be produced in a 3-day batch or 12 h continuous fermentation. Yield is nearly 50% based on input glucose. Gross biopolymer-biomass separation may be effected using microscreening, a low energy process, followed by polish filtration. Polymer flux may be improved by hydrolysis with an endolaminarinase from Rhizopus arrhizius QM 1032. Simple feedstock requirements and low growth pH, together with the difficulty of resuspending dried polymer, may encourage field biopolymer fermentation and use of purified culture broth.

  10. Economic values of production and functional traits, including residual feed intake, in Finnish milk production.

    PubMed

    Hietala, P; Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Kantanen, J; Juga, J

    2014-02-01

    Improving the feed efficiency of dairy cattle has a substantial effect on the economic efficiency and on the reduction of harmful environmental effects of dairy production through lower feeding costs and emissions from dairy farming. To assess the economic importance of feed efficiency in the breeding goal for dairy cattle, the economic values for the current breeding goal traits and the additional feed efficiency traits for Finnish Ayrshire cattle under production circumstances in 2011 were determined. The derivation of economic values was based on a bioeconomic model in which the profit of the production system was calculated, using the generated steady state herd structure. Considering beef production from dairy farms, 2 marketing strategies for surplus calves were investigated: (A) surplus calves were sold at a young age and (B) surplus calves were fattened on dairy farms. Both marketing strategies were unprofitable when subsidies were not included in the revenues. When subsidies were taken into account, a positive profitability was observed in both marketing strategies. The marginal economic values for residual feed intake (RFI) of breeding heifers and cows were -25.5 and -55.8 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year, respectively. The marginal economic value for RFI of animals in fattening was -29.5 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year. To compare the economic importance among traits, the standardized economic weight of each trait was calculated as the product of the marginal economic value and the genetic standard deviation; the standardized economic weight expressed as a percentage of the sum of all standardized economic weights was called relative economic weight. When not accounting for subsidies, the highest relative economic weight was found for 305-d milk yield (34% in strategy A and 29% in strategy B), which was followed by protein percentage (13% in strategy A and 11% in strategy B). The third most important traits were calving

  11. Preliminary Economics for Hydrocarbon Fuel Production from Cellulosic Sugars

    SciTech Connect

    Collett, James R.; Meyer, Pimphan A.; Jones, Susanne B.

    2014-05-18

    Biorefinery process and economic models built in CHEMCAD and a preliminary, genome-scale metabolic model for the oleaginous yeast Lipomyces starkeyi were used to simulate the bioconversion of corn stover to lipids, and the upgrading of these hydrocarbon precursors to diesel and jet fuel. The metabolic model was based on the recently released genome sequence for L. starkeyi and on metabolic pathway information from the literature. The process model was based on bioconversion, lipid extraction, and lipid oil upgrading data found in literature, on new laboratory experimental data, and on yield predictions from the preliminary L. starkeyi metabolic model. The current plant gate production cost for a distillate-range hydrocarbon fuel was estimated by the process model Base Case to be $9.5/gallon ($9.0 /gallon of gasoline equivalent) with assumptions of 2011$, 10% internal return on investment, and 2205 ton/day dry feed rate. Opportunities for reducing the cost to below $5.0/gallon, such as improving bioconversion lipid yield and hydrogenation catalyst selectivity, are presented in a Target Case. The process and economic models developed for this work will be updated in 2014 with new experimental data and predictions from a refined metabolic network model for L. starkeyi. Attaining a production cost of $3.0/gallon will require finding higher value uses for lignin other than power generation, such as conversion to additional fuel or to a co-product.

  12. Economical production and transshipment policy for coordinating multiple production sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Taebok; Goyal, Suresh Kumar

    2012-05-01

    In this article, we study the coordination mechanism dealing with a production-transshipment policy across the multiple regions supplying multiple products. It is assumed that each production site has its own dedicated demand region consuming multiple products. The main concern is how to determine both the production quantity and the lot-apportioning policy while minimising the relevant supply chain cost. This decision issue is formulated as a non-linear mathematical model to determine several relevant decision variables. We propose the solution procedure for deriving the production-transshipment policy minimising the overall supply chain cost.

  13. Economic lot sizing in a production system with random demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Shine-Der; Yang, Chin-Ming; Lan, Shu-Chuan

    2016-04-01

    An extended economic production quantity model that copes with random demand is developed in this paper. A unique feature of the proposed study is the consideration of transient shortage during the production stage, which has not been explicitly analysed in existing literature. The considered costs include set-up cost for the batch production, inventory carrying cost during the production and depletion stages in one replenishment cycle, and shortage cost when demand cannot be satisfied from the shop floor immediately. Based on renewal reward process, a per-unit-time expected cost model is developed and analysed. Under some mild condition, it can be shown that the approximate cost function is convex. Computational experiments have demonstrated that the average reduction in total cost is significant when the proposed lot sizing policy is compared with those with deterministic demand.

  14. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  15. Drilling and production - Economics show CO2 EOR potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dubois, M.K.; Byrnes, A.P.

    2000-01-01

    CO2 EOR may be the key to recovering hundreds of millions of bbl of trapped oil from the mature fields in central Kansas. A simple model aided in assessing the economics of CO2 EOR for central Kansas and the Midcontinent. The model used CO2 Prophet, a DOE freeware reservoir numerical simulation program, to determine reservoir performance, including injected and produced fluid rates, and CO2 utilization. Economic parameters, e.g., oil price, CO2 costs, capital costs, net revenue interest, production taxes, and lease operating expenses, are typical for anticipated conditions in the region and present price climate. Preliminary economic analysis shows that CO2 EOR should give an internal rate of return (IRR) > 20%, before income tax, assuming oil sells for $20/bbl, CO2 costs $1/million cu ft, and gross utilization is 10 million cu ft of CO2/bbl of oil recovered. If the CO2 is reduced to $0.75/million cu ft, an oil price of $17/bbl yields an IRR of 20%. Reservoir and economic modeling shows that IRR is most sensitive to oil price and CO2 cost.

  16. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  17. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate. PMID:26503051

  18. ALTERNATIVES FOR REDUCING INSECTICIDES ON COTTON AND CORN: ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT - SUPPLEMENT 2: PROCEDURES USED IN SETTING UP THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The procedures used in setting up the agricultural production model used in a study of alternatives for reducing insecticides on cotton and corn are described. The major analytical tool used is a spatial equilibrium model of U.S. agriculture. This is a linear programming model th...

  19. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  20. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    SciTech Connect

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  1. ECONOMIC MODELING OF ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    CAMD performs a variety of economic modeling analyses to evaluate the impact of air emissions control policies on the electric power sector. A range of tools are used for this purpose including linear programming models, general equilibrium models, and spreadsheet models. Examp...

  2. Productivity: The New Economic Context. Worldwatch Paper 49.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newland, Kathleen

    Worldwide economic productivity is examined in this paper. There are seven major sections. Section 1 is an introduction which discusses how as the seventies came to a close without producing a strong and sustained recovery from global economic recession, the spotlight of public concern focused on the problem of productivity. Trends which have…

  3. Economics. Does science drive the productivity train?

    PubMed

    Malakoff, D

    2000-08-25

    From the president on down, many are hailing science as the fuel for today's booming economy, and bigger research budgets are seen as essential to continued prosperity. But skeptics say the information technology revolution is overrated as a contributor to economic growth when compared to the truly society-shaking innovations of the past, such as electricity or the telephone. Even some science lobbyists worry that hitching basic research's star too closely to economic arguments could backfire, prompting legislators to take a firmer hand in guiding cash toward less risky projects that they believe will pay off big. PMID:10979847

  4. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    SciTech Connect

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  5. Economic development and the allocation of petroleum products in Sudan

    SciTech Connect

    Cain, M. ); Yousif, M.A.R. )

    1991-01-01

    The Sudanese economy has been characterized in recent years by severe energy shortages which have affected all economic activity. More than 94% of the commercial energy is imported and the level of such imports is seriously limited by the current foreign exchange crisis. However, the problem is not just one of foreign exchange; there is also the problem of utilization of resources to avoid bottleneck problems of supply. The allocation of petroleum products in Sudan has had a severe effect on all aspects of economic life. The aim of this paper is to highlight the problem and to build a model to optimize the distribution of petroleum products in order to achieve at least a minimal supply in all regions. A large linear programming model has been developed and the solution indicates that current facilities should be able to satisfy 96% of the 1986 demand, about 30% more than the actual supply. Furthermore, with a little investment in storage facilities and extra trucks, the supply could satisfy total demand in the immediate future.

  6. An Economic Model for Selective Admissions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haglund, Alma

    1978-01-01

    The author presents an economic model for selective admissions to postsecondary nursing programs. Primary determinants of the admissions model are employment needs, availability of educational resources, and personal resources (ability and learning potential). As there are more applicants than resources, selective admission practices are…

  7. The Commercialisation of University Research and Economic Productivity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Paul

    2007-01-01

    This article focuses on the relationship between university research (in this case science research) and national economic productivity, particularly in the context of the emerging knowledge economy. It addresses the question of whether university research output should be treated as a public good or a private good, in economic terms, and analyses…

  8. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    PubMed

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems. PMID:20146761

  9. Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

    2004-12-01

    Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

  10. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America.

    PubMed

    Hsiang, Solomon M

    2010-08-31

    Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (-2.4%/+1 degrees C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (-0.1%/+1 degrees C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change. PMID:20713696

  11. Making dynamic modeling effective in economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2005-09-01

    Mathematics has been extremely effective in physics, but not in economics beyond finance. To establish economics as science we should follow the Galilean method and try to deduce mathematical models of markets from empirical data, as has been done for financial markets. Financial markets are nonstationary. This means that ‘value’ is subjective. Nonstationarity also means that the form of the noise in a market cannot be postulated a priori, but must be deduced from the empirical data. I discuss the essence of complexity in a market as unexpected events, and end with a biologically motivated speculation about market growth.

  12. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  13. Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 1: Economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milligan, Michael R.

    1999-10-01

    As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators continues to increase in utility-scale applications, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry in the United States appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This article is the first of two which address modelling approaches and results obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This first article addresses the basic economic issues associated with electricity production from several generators that include large-scale wind power plants. An important part of this discussion is the role of unit commitment and economic dispatch in production cost models. This paper includes overviews and comparisons of the prevalent production cost modelling methods, including several case studies applied to a variety of electric utilities. The second article discusses various methods of assessing capacity credit and results from several reliability-based studies performed at NREL.

  14. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  15. [Economic dimension and environmental impact of beef production in France].

    PubMed

    Peyraud, Jean-Louis

    2011-11-01

    Following recent publication of data on its environmental impact, beef production is being strongly challenged. However, these data concern global ruminant production, which is highly diverse and does not necessarily correspond to the European and French situations. While it is undeniable that ruminant production contributes to global warming, there are several ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and permanent pastures serve as carbon sinks. Beef production is also a vital economic sector for many regions, where it would not be possible to produce cereals or to develop intensive animal production systems. Beef production also contributes to many collective services, justifying its continued financial support. PMID:22844743

  16. Using data collected for production or economic purposes to research production animal welfare: an epidemiological approach.

    PubMed

    Dewey, Cate; Haley, Charles; Widowski, Tina; Friendship, Robert; Sunstrum, Janet; Richardson, Karen

    2009-01-01

    Epidemiologists use the analyses of large data sets collected for production or economic purposes to research production nonhuman animal welfare issues in the commercial setting. This approach is particularly useful if the welfare issue is rare or hard to reproduce. However, to ensure the information is accurate, it is essential to carefully validate these data. The study used economic data to research in-transit deaths of finishing pigs. The most appropriate model to fit the distribution of the outcome must be selected. A negative binomial model fit these data because the prevalence was low and most lots of pigs had no deaths. The study used hierarchical dummy variables to identify thresholds of temperature and humidity above which in-transit losses increased. Multiple variable modeling provides the foundation for the strength of epidemiological research. The model identifies the association between each factor and the outcome after controlling for the other factors in the model. The study evaluated confounding and interaction. Bias may be introduced when data are limited to one farm system, one abattoir, or one season. Census data enable us to understand the entire industry. PMID:19319713

  17. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  18. Sparse High Dimensional Models in Economics

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Lv, Jinchi; Qi, Lei

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on sparse high dimensional models and discusses some applications in economics and finance. Recent developments of theory, methods, and implementations in penalized least squares and penalized likelihood methods are highlighted. These variable selection methods are proved to be effective in high dimensional sparse modeling. The limits of dimensionality that regularization methods can handle, the role of penalty functions, and their statistical properties are detailed. Some recent advances in ultra-high dimensional sparse modeling are also briefly discussed. PMID:22022635

  19. The economic mobility in money transfer models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Ning; Xi, Ning; Wang, Yougui

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in four money transfer models which have been applied into the research on wealth distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the time series of agents’ ranks and observing their volatility. We also compare the mobility quantitatively by employing an index, “the per capita aggregate change in log-income”, proposed by economists. Like the shape of distribution, the character of mobility is also decided by the trading rule in these transfer models. It is worth noting that even though two models have the same type of distribution, their mobility characters may be quite different.

  20. Cognitive Capitalism: Economic Freedom Moderates the Effects of Intellectual and Average Classes on Economic Productivity.

    PubMed

    Coyle, Thomas R; Rindermann, Heiner; Hancock, Dale

    2016-10-01

    Cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity. However, the effects of cognitive ability may be stronger in free and open economies, where competition rewards merit and achievement. To test this hypothesis, ability levels of intellectual classes (top 5%) and average classes (country averages) were estimated using international student assessments (Programme for International Student Assessment; Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) (N = 99 countries). The ability levels were correlated with indicators of economic freedom (Fraser Institute), scientific achievement (patent rates), innovation (Global Innovation Index), competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Index), and wealth (gross domestic product). Ability levels of intellectual and average classes strongly predicted all economic criteria. In addition, economic freedom moderated the effects of cognitive ability (for both classes), with stronger effects at higher levels of freedom. Effects were particularly robust for scientific achievements when the full range of freedom was analyzed. The results support cognitive capitalism theory: cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity, and its effects are enhanced by economic freedom. PMID:27458006

  1. Economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production within a biomass system

    SciTech Connect

    Hertzmark, D.; Flaim, S.; Ray, D.; Parvin, G.

    1980-12-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production in the United States is discussed. The beverage fermentation processes are compared and contrasted with the wet milling of corn, and alternative agricultural products for alcohol production are discussed. Alcohol costs for different fermentation methods and for various agricultural crops (corn, sugar cane, sugar beets, etc.) are presented, along with a brief discussion of US government policy implications. (JMT)

  2. Models for Products

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Speiser, Bob; Walter, Chuck

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how models can support productive thinking. For us a model is a "thing", a tool to help make sense of something. We restrict attention to specific models for whole-number multiplication, hence the wording of the title. They support evolving thinking in large measure through the ways their users redesign them. They assume new…

  3. [Demo-economic models of development: evolution and recent trends].

    PubMed

    Bourcier De Carbon, P

    1983-01-01

    Among the recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest was the elaboration of empirical and inductive demographic-economic models to assist in planning. 1 of the disadvantages of existing models and systems of national income accounting was that income distribution was ignored in favor of the total value of production. Demographic variables were not regarded as endogenous. By the early 1970s, the societal changes attendant on rural exodus and urban unemployment, the increasing absorption of traditional structures into the modern sector, and changes in the roles of women and young people had become obvious, and the need for new models that would reflect such changes was clear. Some macromodels designed to assist medium and long range planning were 1st elaborated in the mid 1970s; the Bachue development models were particularly promising because of their improved database. New models were developed which incorporated consumption problems based on basic needs. An increased focus on the interaction of macroeconomic variables with microsociological and demographic variables, the household and family, and employment and the labor market became necessary. The Bachue models, which had been the most successful of recent models in integrating economic and sociodemographic structures and variables, usually include 4 principal modules which cover demography and the educational system, the economy, employment, and income distribution; basic needs models include a 5th module. The Bachue models are based on a general equilibrium model subject to certain constraints, while the basic needs models are based on dynamic disequilibrium models. A major problem of the models is that technological progress is fundamentally exogenous; there is no intimate link between productivity and elevation of the educational level of the labor force. To avoid unmanageable complexity, households are reconstructed for each period on the basis of the demographic and economic data

  4. Economic aspects of production of Caiman crocodilus yacare.

    PubMed

    Carreira, Laura B T; Sabbag, Omar J

    2015-03-01

    The breeding of crocodilians is still a recent activity in Brazil. Its peak was in the 1990's, but it has gaps in its production, as there are no norms for the commercial breeding of these animals in captivity. However, its economic potential is great, and the search for ecological balance and viability of commercial production has become a challenge among farmers of this activity. Therefor, the objective of the study was to economically analyze the production of Caiman crocodilus yacare on a farm located in Caceres, state of Mato Grosso, identifying relevant items of costs in the activity, as well as the parameters related to the profitability and viability of the activity. The economic results for the breeding of this animal were positive, with profitability ratios higher than 70%. PMID:25806993

  5. Economic and environmental assessment of syrup production. Colombian case.

    PubMed

    Dávila, Javier A; Hernández, Valentina; Castro, Eulogio; Cardona, Carlos A

    2014-06-01

    This work presents a techno-economic and environmental assessment of the glucose syrups production from sugarcane bagasse, plantain husk, cassava husk, mango peel, rice husk and corncobs. According to the economic analysis, the corncob had both, the lowest production cost (2.48USD/kg syrup) and the highest yield (0.61kgofsugars/kg of wet agroindustrial waste) due to its high content in cellulose and hemicellulose. This analysis also revealed that a heat integration strategy is necessary since the utilities consumption represent an important factor in the production cost. According to the results, the pretreatment section requires more energy in the syrup production in comparison with the requirements of other sections such as production and sugar concentration. The environmental assessment revealed that the solid wastes such as furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural affected the environmental development of the process for all the agroindustrial wastes, being the rice husk the residue with the lowest environmental impact. PMID:24686375

  6. Perspectives on the economic analysis of ethanol production from biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Prebluda, H.J.; Williams, R.

    1981-01-01

    The potential and economics of ethanol production from biomass is examined. Among the topics covered are: the Brazilian gasohol program; the effect of large scale conversion of grain to alcohol on U.S. food and animal feed prices; the Ex-Ferm process for fermenting sugar cane; the effect on cane sugar markets of the large-scale development in the U.S. of high fructose corn syrup; and better utilization of by-products. Significant breakthroughs which have recently taken place and which will improve the economic picture for making alcohol from solid waste are reviewed. (Refs. 26).

  7. Techno Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production by gasification of biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Francis Lau

    2002-12-01

    Biomass represents a large potential feedstock resource for environmentally clean processes that produce power or chemicals. It lends itself to both biological and thermal conversion processes and both options are currently being explored. Hydrogen can be produced in a variety of ways. The majority of the hydrogen produced in this country is produced through natural gas reforming and is used as chemical feedstock in refinery operations. In this report we will examine the production of hydrogen by gasification of biomass. Biomass is defined as organic matter that is available on a renewable basis through natural processes or as a by-product of processes that use renewable resources. The majority of biomass is used in combustion processes, in mills that use the renewable resources, to produce electricity for end-use product generation. This report will explore the use of hydrogen as a fuel derived from gasification of three candidate biomass feedstocks: bagasse, switchgrass, and a nutshell mix that consists of 40% almond nutshell, 40% almond prunings, and 20% walnut shell. In this report, an assessment of the technical and economic potential of producing hydrogen from biomass gasification is analyzed. The resource base was assessed to determine a process scale from feedstock costs and availability. Solids handling systems were researched. A GTI proprietary gasifier model was used in combination with a Hysys(reg. sign) design and simulation program to determine the amount of hydrogen that can be produced from each candidate biomass feed. Cost estimations were developed and government programs and incentives were analyzed. Finally, the barriers to the production and commercialization of hydrogen from biomass were determined. The end-use of the hydrogen produced from this system is small PEM fuel cells for automobiles. Pyrolysis of biomass was also considered. Pyrolysis is a reaction in which biomass or coal is partially vaporized by heating. Gasification is a more

  8. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  9. Process simulation and economical evaluation of enzymatic biodiesel production plant.

    PubMed

    Sotoft, Lene Fjerbaek; Rong, Ben-Guang; Christensen, Knud V; Norddahl, Birgir

    2010-07-01

    Process simulation and economical evaluation of an enzymatic biodiesel production plant has been carried out. Enzymatic biodiesel production from high quality rapeseed oil and methanol has been investigated for solvent free and cosolvent production processes. Several scenarios have been investigated with different production scales (8 and 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year) and enzyme price. The cosolvent production process is found to be most expensive and is not a viable choice, while the solvent free process is viable for the larger scale production of 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year with the current enzyme price. With the suggested enzyme price of the future, both the small and large scale solvent free production proved viable. The product price was estimated to be 0.73-1.49 euro/kg biodiesel with the current enzyme price and 0.05-0.75 euro/kg with the enzyme price of the future for solvent free process. PMID:20171880

  10. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; Carlsen, Brett W.

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuel cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.

  11. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; Carlsen, Brett W.

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuelmore » cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.« less

  12. Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS). A New Concept in Economic Forecasting for Defense Expenditures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blond, David L.

    The Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS) analyzes the economic effect of defense expenditures on the United States economy by using a consistent, reliable framework of economic models and government policy assumptions. Planning information on defense requirements is also provided to private sector firms. The DEIMS allows the Department…

  13. A Technical and Economic Review of Solar Hydrogen Production Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilhelm, Erik; Fowler, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen energy systems are being developed to replace fossil fuels-based systems for transportation and stationary application. One of the challenges facing the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy vector is the lack of an efficient, economical, and sustainable method of hydrogen production. In the short term, hydrogen produced from…

  14. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1985.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report presents the Economic Research Service's estimates of the costs of producing wheat, feed grains, cotton, and dairy commodities. It includes costs for other farm products that compete with the required commodities, namely rice, peanuts, soybeans, flax, sunflowers, fed cattle, hogs, sheep, and sugar. The report begins by assessing costs…

  15. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1986.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report contains 121 tables that estimate the costs of production of various commodities on United States farms in 1986. The report first assesses costs and returns on a per-unit basis, such as one acre or one animal, under three sections of a budget: cash receipts, cash expenses, and economic costs. The budgets are based on national…

  16. The economic viability of smallholder timber production under expanding açaí palm production in the Amazon Estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Douglas R. Carter

    2015-01-01

    Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallholder vertically integrated timber use to better understand the activity in the context of its primary land use alternative in the Amazon Estuary, açaí palm fruit production. We use data from landowner and firm surveys, participatory monitoring of firms, and detailed forest and sawmill operation monitoring to devise financial returns models of smallholder timber micro firms and açaí palm fruit production. We then compare the economics of the two activities to better understand how differences may shape decisions at the small holder scale that impact current land use shifts in the region.

  17. Integrated approach to economical, reliable, safe nuclear power production

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-06-01

    An Integrated Approach to Economical, Reliable, Safe Nuclear Power Production is the latest evolution of a concept which originated with the Defense-in-Depth philosophy of the nuclear industry. As Defense-in-Depth provided a framework for viewing physical barriers and equipment redundancy, the Integrated Approach gives a framework for viewing nuclear power production in terms of functions and institutions. In the Integrated Approach, four plant Goals are defined (Normal Operation, Core and Plant Protection, Containment Integrity and Emergency Preparedness) with the attendant Functional and Institutional Classifications that support them. The Integrated Approach provides a systematic perspective that combines the economic objective of reliable power production with the safety objective of consistent, controlled plant operation.

  18. Home Economics Education Career Path Guide and Model Curriculum Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Univ., Northridge.

    This curriculum guide developed in California and organized in 10 chapters, provides a home economics education career path guide and model curriculum standards for high school home economics programs. The first chapter contains information on the following: home economics education in California, home economics careers for the future, home…

  19. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  20. Switchgrass biomass to ethanol production economics: Field to fuel approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haque, Mohua

    Scope and Method of Study. Switchgrass has been proposed as a dedicated energy crop. The first essay determines switchgrass yield response to nitrogen fertilizer for a single annual harvest in July and for a single annual harvest in October based on a field experiments conducted at Stillwater, OK. Data were fitted to several functional forms to characterize both the July harvest and the October harvest response functions. Extending the harvest window to take advantage of reduction in harvest machinery investment costs has important biological consequences. The second essay determines the cost to deliver a ton of switchgrass biomass to a 2,000 tons per day plant located in Oklahoma. The model accounts for differences in yield and nitrogen fertilizer requirements across harvest months. The data were incorporated into a multi-region, multi-period, monthly time-step, mixed integer mathematical programming model that was constructed to determine the optimal strategy. Desirable feedstock properties, biomass to biofuel conversion rate, and investment required in plant differs depending on which conversion technology is used. The third essay determines the breakeven ethanol price for a cellulosic biorefinery. A comprehensive mathematical programming model that encompasses the chain from land acquisition to ethanol production was constructed and solved. Findings and Conclusions. The July and October harvest plateau yield of 4.36 and 5.49 tons per acre were achieved with an estimated annual nitrogen fertilizer application of 80 and 63 pounds per acre, respectively. Farm gate production costs were estimated to be 60 per ton for the July harvest and 50 per ton for the October harvest. Based on the model results, the strategy of extending harvest over many months is economically preferable to a strategy of harvesting only in peak yield harvest months. Restricting harvest to a two-month harvest season would increase the cost to deliver feedstock by 23 percent. For a capital

  1. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. II: economic values incorporating risks in different smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

    2015-02-01

    This study estimated economic values for production traits (dressing percentage (DP), %; live weight for growers (LWg), kg; live weight for sows (LWs), kg) and functional traits (feed intake for growers (FEEDg), feed intake for sow (FEEDs), preweaning survival rate (PrSR), %; postweaning survival (PoSR), %; sow survival rate (SoSR), %, total number of piglets born (TNB) and farrowing interval (FI), days) under different smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Economic values were estimated considering two production circumstances: fixed-herd and fixed-feed. Under the fixed-herd scenario, economic values were estimated assuming a situation where the herd cannot be increased due to other constraints apart from feed resources. The fixed-feed input scenario assumed that the herd size is restricted by limitation of feed resources available. In addition to the tradition profit model, a risk-rated bio-economic model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Under the fixed-feed basis, the risk-rated economic values for DP, LWg, LWs and SoSR were similar to those obtained under the fixed-herd situation. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50 % in all the production systems and basis of evaluation meaning there would be relatively little effect on the real genetic gain of a selection index. Therefore, both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used to predict profitability in pig breeding programmes. PMID:25433647

  2. An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

    1989-01-01

    A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

  3. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  4. The nutrition intervention improved adult human capital and economic productivity.

    PubMed

    Martorell, Reynaldo; Melgar, Paul; Maluccio, John A; Stein, Aryeh D; Rivera, Juan A

    2010-02-01

    This article reviews key findings about the long-term impact of a nutrition intervention carried out by the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama from 1969 to 1977. Results from follow-up studies in 1988-89 and 2002-04 show substantial impact on adult human capital and economic productivity. The 1988-89 study showed that adult body size and work capacity increased for those provided improved nutrition through age 3 y, whereas the 2002-04 follow-up showed that schooling was increased for women and reading comprehension and intelligence increased in both men and women. Participants were 26-42 y of age at the time of the 2002-04 follow-up, facilitating the assessment of economic productivity. Wages of men increased by 46% in those provided with improved nutrition through age 2 y. Findings for cardiovascular disease risk factors were heterogeneous; however, they suggest that improved nutrition in early life is unlikely to increase cardiovascular disease risk later in life and may indeed lower risk. In conclusion, the substantial improvement in adult human capital and economic productivity resulting from the nutrition intervention provides a powerful argument for promoting improvements in nutrition in pregnant women and young children. PMID:20032473

  5. SRWC bioenergy productivity and economic feasibility on marginal lands.

    PubMed

    Ghezehei, Solomon B; Shifflett, Shawn D; Hazel, Dennis W; Nichols, Elizabeth Guthrie

    2015-09-01

    Evolving bioenergy markets necessitate consideration of marginal lands for woody biomass production worldwide particularly the southeastern U.S., a prominent wood pellet exporter to Europe. Growing short rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on marginal lands minimizes concerns about using croplands for bioenergy production and reinforces sustainability of wood supply to existing and growing global biomass markets. We estimated mean annual aboveground green biomass increments (MAIs) and assessed economic feasibility of various operationally established (0.5 ha-109 ha) SRWC stands on lands used to mitigate environmental liabilities of municipal wastewater, livestock wastewater and sludge, and subsurface contamination by petroleum and pesticides. MAIs (Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) had no consistent relationship with stand density or age. Non-irrigated Populus, Plantanus occidentalis L. and Pinus taeda L. stands produced 2.4-12.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1). Older, irrigated Taxodium distchum L., Fraxinus pennsylvanica L., and coppiced P. occidentalis stands had higher MAIs (10.6-21.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) than irrigated Liquidambar styraciflua L. and non-coppiced, irrigated P. occidentalis (8-18 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Natural hardwood MAIs at 20-60 years were less than hardwood and P. taeda productivities at 5-20 years. Unlike weed control, irrigation and coppicing improved managed hardwood productivity. Rotation length affected economic outcomes although the returns were poor due to high establishment and maintenance costs, low productivities and low current stumpage values, which are expected to quickly change with development of robust global markets. PMID:26087365

  6. Energy/economic model analysis. Livermore energy policy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, R. B.

    1980-06-01

    The results of a study done by the Energy and Resources Planning Group of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) for the Gas Research Institute (GRI) using the LLL Economic Modeling System (EMS) are described. The purpose was to allow GRl to evaluate the appropriateness of their continued use of an energy model and, at the same time, for them to gain a better understanding of the consequences of current or proposed GRI supported research and development.

  7. Upstream and downstream strategies to economize biodiesel production.

    PubMed

    Hasheminejad, Meisam; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Mansourpanah, Yaghoub; Khatami far, Mahdi; Javani, Azita

    2011-01-01

    In recent years biodiesel has drawn considerable amount of attention as a clean and renewable fuel. Biodiesel is produced from renewable sources such as vegetable oils and animal fat mainly through catalytic or non-catalytic transesterification method as well as supercritical method. However, as a consequence of disadvantages of these methods, the production cost increases dramatically. This article summarizes different biodiesel production methods with a focus on their advantages and disadvantages. The downstream and upstream strategies such as using waste cooking oils, application of non-edible plant oils, plant genetic engineering, using membrane separation technology for biodiesel production, separation and purification, application of crude glycerin as an energy supplement for ruminants, glycerin ultra-purification and their consequent roles in economizing the production process are fully discussed in this article. PMID:20974530

  8. Impact of production strategies and animal performance on economic values of dairy sheep traits.

    PubMed

    Krupová, Z; Wolfová, M; Krupa, E; Oravcová, M; Daňo, J; Huba, J; Polák, P

    2012-03-01

    The objective of this study was to carry out a sensitivity analysis on the impact of various production strategies and performance levels on the relative economic values (REVs) of traits in dairy sheep. A bio-economic model implemented in the program package ECOWEIGHT was used to simulate the profit function for a semi-extensive production system with the Slovak multi-purpose breed Improved Valachian and to calculate the REV of 14 production and functional traits. The following production strategies were analysed: differing proportions of milk processed to cheese, customary weaning and early weaning of lambs with immediate sale or sale after artificial rearing, seasonal lambing in winter and aseasonal lambing in autumn. Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in detail for the four economically most important traits: 150 days milk yield, conception rate of ewes, litter size and ewe productive lifetime. Impacts of the differences in the mean value of each of these four traits on REVs of all other traits were also examined. Simulated changes in the production circumstances had a higher impact on the REV for milk yield than on REVs of the other traits investigated. The proportion of milk processed to cheese, weaning management strategy for lambs and level of milk yield were the main factors influencing the REV of milk yield. The REVs for conception rate of ewes were highly sensitive to the current mean level of the trait. The REV of ewe productive lifetime was most sensitive to variation in ewe conception rate, and the REV of litter size was most affected by weaning strategy for lambs. On the basis of the results of sensitivity analyses, it is recommended that economic values of traits for the overall breeding objective for dairy sheep be calculated as the weighted average of the economic values obtained for the most common production strategies of Slovak dairy sheep farms and that economic values be adjusted after substantial changes in performance levels

  9. The economic prospects of cellulosic biomass for biofuel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumarappan, Subbu

    competitive with existing crops, and additional subsidy support would be required. Among the states in the eastern half of US, the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia are found to be economically more suitable to cultivate perennial energy crops. The third paper estimates the optimal feedstock composition of annual and perennial feedstocks from a biorefinery's perspective. The objective function of the optimization model is to minimize the cumulative costs covering harvesting, transport, storage, and GHG costs, of biomass procurement over a biorefinery's productive period of 20 years subject to various constraints on land availability, feedstock availability, processing capacity, contracting needs and storage. The results suggest that the economic tradeoff is between higher production costs for dedicated energy crops and higher collection and transport costs for agricultural residues; the delivered costs of biomass drives the results. These tradeoffs are reflected in optimal spatial planting pattern as preferred by the biorefinery: energy crops are grown in fields closer to the biorefinery and agricultural residues can be sourced from fields farther away from the biorefinery. The optimization model also provides useful insights into the price premiums paid for annual and perennial feedstocks. For the parameters used in the case study, the energy crop price premium ranges from 2 to 8 per ton for fields located within a 10 mile radius. For agricultural residues, the price premiums range from 5 to 16 per ton within a 10-20 mile radius.

  10. An integrated hydrological, ecological, and economical (HEE) modeling system for assessing water resources and ecosystem production: calibration and validation in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xianglian; Yang, Xiusheng; Gao, Wei

    2006-08-01

    Effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas demands studies that cross over the disciplinaries of natural and social sciences. An integrated Hydrological, Ecological and Economical (HEE) modeling system at regional scale has been developed to assess water resources use and ecosystem production in arid and semi-arid areas. As a physically-based distributed modeling system, the HEE modeling system requires various input parameters including those for soil, vegetation, topography, groundwater, and water and agricultural management at different spatial levels. A successful implementation of the modeling system highly depends on how well it is calibrated. This paper presented an automatic calibration procedure for the HEE modeling system and its test in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin. Previous to calibration, comprehensive literature investigation and sensitivity analysis were performed to identify important parameters for calibration. The automatic calibration procedure was base on conventional Monte Carlo sampling method together with a multi-objective criterion for calibration over multi-site and multi-output. The multi-objective function consisted of optimizing statistics of mean absolute relative error (MARE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E NS), and coefficient of determination (R2). The modeling system was calibrated against streamflow and harvest yield data from multiple sites/provinces within the basin over 2001 by using the proposed automatic procedure, and validated over 1993-1995. Over the calibration period, the mean absolute relative error of simulated daily streamflow was within 7% while the statistics R2 and E NS of daily streamflow were 0.61 and 0.49 respectively. Average simulated harvest yield over the calibration period was about 9.2% less than that of observations. Overall calibration results have indicated that the calibration procedures developed in this study can efficiently calibrate

  11. Technology and economic assessment of lactic acid production and uses

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, R.; Tsai, S.P.

    1996-03-01

    Lactic acid has been an intermediate-volume specialty chemical (world production {approximately}50,000 tons/yr) used in a wide range of food-processing and industrial applications. Potentially, it can become a very large-volume, commodity-chemical intermediate produced from carbohydrates for feedstocks of biodegradable polymers, oxygenated chemicals, environmentally friendly ``green`` solvents, and other intermediates. In the past, efficient and economical technologies for the recovery and purification of lactic acid from fermentation broths and its conversion to the chemical or polymer intermediates had been the key technology impediments and main process cost centers. Development and deployment of novel separations technologies, such as electrodialysis with bipolar membranes, extractive and catalytic distillations, and chemical conversion, can enable low-cost production with continuous processes in large-scale operations. The emerging technologies can use environmentally sound lactic acid processes to produce environmentally useful products, with attractive process economics. These technology advances and recent product and process commercialization strategies are reviewed and assessed.

  12. Advanced Production Planning Models

    SciTech Connect

    JONES,DEAN A.; LAWTON,CRAIG R.; KJELDGAARD,EDWIN A.; WRIGHT,STEPHEN TROY; TURNQUIST,MARK A.; NOZICK,LINDA K.; LIST,GEORGE F.

    2000-12-01

    >This report describes the innovative modeling approach developed as a result of a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project. The overall goal of this project was to provide an effective suite of solvers for advanced production planning at facilities in the nuclear weapons complex (NWC). We focused our development activities on problems related to operations at the DOE's Pantex Plant. These types of scheduling problems appear in many contexts other than Pantex--both within the NWC (e.g., Neutron Generators) and in other commercial manufacturing settings. We successfully developed an innovative and effective solution strategy for these types of problems. We have tested this approach on actual data from Pantex, and from Org. 14000 (Neutron Generator production). This report focuses on the mathematical representation of the modeling approach and presents three representative studies using Pantex data. Results associated with the Neutron Generator facility will be published in a subsequent SAND report. The approach to task-based scheduling described here represents a significant addition to the literature for large-scale, realistic scheduling problems in a variety of production settings.

  13. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  14. ECONOMIC MODELLING OF WATER SUPPLY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPRODUCT FIRM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research was conducted to develop a comprehensive economic model that could use the neoclassical theory of the multiproduct firm to analyze the production structure of water supply. The project attempts to meet the need for in-depth analysis of the cost and economic structure of ...

  15. Economic requirements for competitive laser fusion power production

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, W.J.; Meier, W.R.

    1985-11-15

    An economic model of a laser fusion commercial power plant is used to identify the design and operating regimes of the driver, target and reaction chamber that will result in economic competitiveness with future fission and coal plants. We find that, for a plant with a net power of 1 GW/sub e/, the cost of the driver must be less than $0.4 to 0.6 B, and the recirculating power fraction must be less than 25%. Target gain improvements at low driver energy are the most beneficial but also the most difficult to achieve. The optimal driver energy decreases with increasing target technology. The sensitivity of the cost of electricity to variations in cost and performance parameters decreases with increasing target technology. If chamber pulse rates of a few Hz can be achieved, then gains of 80 to 100 will be sufficient, and higher pulse rates do not help much. Economic competitiveness becomes more difficult with decreasing plant size. Finally, decreasing the cost of the balance of plant has the greatest beneficial effect on economic competitiveness. 6 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Total economic value of wetlands products and services in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person⁻¹. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year⁻¹, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year⁻¹, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹ and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

  17. Total Economic Value of Wetlands Products and Services in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person−1. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year−1, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year−1, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare−1 year−1 and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare−1 year−1. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

  18. An Economic Model of Interpersonal Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cissna, Linda Surbaugh; Cissna, Kenneth N.

    A Marxian economic analysis of interpersonal communication within a capitalist system finds that capitalism, with its attendant stress on wholly economic values, produces a commodity-oriented society. Mass media advertising is the primary vehicle through which the capitalist culture indoctrinates the ideas of competition for the intangibles (love,…

  19. Essays on Applied Resource Economics Using Bioeconomic Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Affuso, Ermanno

    With rising demographic growth, there is increasing interest in analytical studies that assess alternative policies to provide an optimal allocation of scarce natural resources while ensuring environmental sustainability. This dissertation consists of three essays in applied resource economics that are interconnected methodologically within the agricultural production sector of Economics. The first chapter examines the sustainability of biofuels by simulating and evaluating an agricultural voluntary program that aims to increase the land use efficiency in the production of biofuels of first generation in the state of Alabama. The results show that participatory decisions may increase the net energy value of biofuels by 208% and reduce emissions by 26%; significantly contributing to the state energy goals. The second chapter tests the hypothesis of overuse of fertilizers and pesticides in U.S. peanut farming with respect to other inputs and address genetic research to reduce the use of the most overused chemical input. The findings suggest that peanut producers overuse fungicide with respect to any other input and that fungi resistant genetically engineered peanuts may increase the producer welfare up to 36.2%. The third chapter implements a bioeconomic model, which consists of a biophysical model and a stochastic dynamic recursive model that is used to measure potential economic and environmental welfare of cotton farmers derived from a rotation scheme that uses peanut as a complementary crop. The results show that the rotation scenario would lower farming costs by 14% due to nitrogen credits from prior peanut land use and reduce non-point source pollution from nitrogen runoff by 6.13% compared to continuous cotton farming.

  20. Economic realities of coal combustion by-product utilization

    SciTech Connect

    Colmar, J.A.

    1997-09-01

    The purpose of this paper is to highlight the economic issues associated with coal combustion by-product (CCB) utilization and to discuss both technical and cost considerations of commercialization. Handling, processing, and distribution aspects as well as geographic location and competing materials will affect utilization. Several case studies including fly ash in rick, FGD gypsum vs. mined gypsum, and bottom ash vs. lightweight aggregate are presented detailing these issues. Understanding these factors will provide insight to evaluating barriers for CCB utilization which is the first step toward high volume CCB utilization.

  1. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  2. Production Planning Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-04-20

    PRODMOD is an integrated computational tool for performing dynamic simulation and optimization for the entire high level waste complex at the Savannah River Site (SRS) It is being used at SRS for planning purposes so that all waste can be processed efficiently. The computational tool 1) optimizes waste blending sequences, 2) minimizes waste volume production, 3) reduces waste processing time, 4) provides better process control and understanding, and 5) assists strategic planning, scheduling, and costmore » estimation. PRODMOD has been developed using Aspen Technology''s software development package SPEEDUP. PRODMOD models all the key HLW processing operations at SRS: storage and evaporation: saltcake production and dissolution: filtration (dewatering): precipitation: sludge and precipitate washing: glass, grout, and organics production. Innovative approaches have been used in making PRODMOD a very fast computational tool. These innovative approaches are 1) constructing a dynamic problem as a steady state problem 2) mapping between event-space (batch processes) and time-space (dynamic processes) without sacrificing the details in the batch process. The dynamic nature of the problem is constructed in linear form where time dependence is implicit. The linear constructs and mapping algorithms have made it possible to devise a general purpose optimization scheme which couples the optimization driver with the PRODMOD simulator. The optimization scheme is capable of generating single or multiple optimal input conditions for different types of objective functions over single or multiple years of operations depending on the nature of the objective function and operating constraints.« less

  3. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE) model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP) estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation) as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS) in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of the TE model predictions

  4. Economic evaluation of United States ethanol production from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Youn-Sang

    This paper evaluates the economic feasibility and economy-wide impacts of the U. S. ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (LCF) using Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA's) dilute acid hydrolysis process. A nonlinear mathematical programming model of a single ethanol producer, whose objective is profit maximization, is developed. Because of differences in their chemical composition and production process, lignocellulosic feedstocks are divided into two groups: Biomass feedstocks, which refer to crop residues, energy crops and woody biomass, and municipal solid waste (MSW). Biomass feedstocks are more productive and less costly in producing ethanol and co-products, while MSW generates an additional income to the producer from a tipping fee and recycling. The analysis suggests that, regardless of types of feedstocks used, TVA's conversion process can enhance the economic viability of ethanol production as long as furfural is produced from the hemicellulose fraction of feedstocks as a co-product. The high price of furfural makes it a major factor in determining the economic feasibility of ethanol production. Along with evaluating economic feasibility of LCF-to-ethanol production, the optimal size of a plant producing ethanol using TVA's conversion process is estimated. The larger plant would have the advantage of economies of scale, but also have a disadvantage of increased collection and transportation costs for bulky biomass from more distant locations. We assume that the plant is located in the state of Missouri and utilizes only feedstocks produced in the state. The results indicate that the size of a plant using Biomass feedstocks is much bigger than one using MSW. The difference of plant sizes results from plant location and feedstock availability. One interesting finding is that energy crops are not feasible feedstocks for LCF-to-ethanol production due to their high price. Next, a static CGE model is developed to estimate the U.S. economy

  5. Economical Recovery of By-products in the Mining Industry

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, J.B.

    2001-12-05

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Industrial Technologies, Mining Industry of the Future Program, works with the mining industry to further the industry's advances toward environmental and economic goals. Two of these goals are (1) responsible emission and by-product management and (2) low-cost and efficient production (DOE 1998). DOE formed an alliance with the National Mining Association (NMA) to strengthen the basis for research projects conducted to benefit the mining industry. NMA and industry representatives actively participate in this alliance by evaluating project proposals and by recommending research project selection to DOE. Similarly, the National Research Council (NRC) has recently and independently recommended research and technology development opportunities in the mining industry (NRC 2001). The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Colorado School of Mines engineers conducted one such project for DOE regarding by -product recovery from mining process residue. The results of this project include this report on mining industry process residue and waste with opportunity for by-product recovery. The U.S. mineral processing industry produces over 30,000,000 metric tons per year of process residue and waste that may contain hazardous species as well as valuable by-products. This study evaluates the copper, lead, and zinc commodity sectors which generate between 23,300,000 and 24,000,000 metric tons per year. The distribution of residual elements in process residues and wastes varies over wide ranges* because of variations in the original ore content as it is extracted from the earth's crust. In the earth's crust, the elements of interest to mining fall into two general geochemical classifications, lithophiles and chalcophiles** (Cox 1997). Groups of elements are almost always present together in a given geochemical classification, but the relative amounts of each element are unique to a particular ore body. This paper generally describes

  6. A recursive model of economic well-being in retirement.

    PubMed

    Leon, J

    1985-07-01

    Although investigators have identified some of the social and economic forces that influence levels of economic resources among elderly adults, little has been done to organize these factors into predictive lifespan models of economic well-being. Applying path analysis to data on retiring workers from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the present research offers a beginning recursive model. It traces the influences of demographic/family background, human capital, and work-related characteristics on economic position in retirement. Controlling for differences in labor force participation and other human capital measures, race and family background lose their direct significance, whereas sex remains directly significant in predicting economic resource levels for recently retired workers. In addition, the model estimates the direct and indirect effects played by industrial sector location and social class position. In total the structurally based capital attainment model explains 65% of the variance in a measure of economic well-being that includes retirement income and wealth. PMID:4008884

  7. Metropolitan and state economic regions (MASTER) model - overview

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, R.C.; Moe, R.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1983-05-01

    The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is a unique multi-regional economic model designed to forecast regional economic activity and assess the regional economic impacts caused by national and regional economic changes (e.g., interest rate fluctuations, energy price changes, construction and operation of a nuclear waste storage facility, shutdown of major industrial operations). MASTER can be applied to any or all of the 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA rest-of-state-areas (ROSAs) in the continental US. The model can also be applied to any or all of the continental US counties and states. This report is divided into four sections: capabilities and applications of the MASTER model, development of the model, model simulation, and validation testing.

  8. Assessing the Economic Viability of Bio-based Products for Missouri Value-added Crop Production

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes

    2005-11-30

    While research and development on biobased products has continued strong over the years, parallel attention on the economics and management of such product innovation has been lacking. With the financial support of the Department of Energy, the Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Center at the University of Missouri-Columbia has launched a pilot graduate education program that seeks to fill the gap. Within this context, a multi-disciplinary research and teaching program has been structured with an emphasis on new product and innovation economics and management. More specifically, this pilot graduate education program has the following major objectives: (1) To provide students with a strong background in innovation economics, management, and strategy. (2) To diversify the students academic background with coursework in science and technology. (3) To familiarize the student with biobased policy initiatives through interaction with state and national level organizations and policymakers. (4) To facilitate active collaboration with industry involved in the development and production of biobased products. The pilot education program seeks to develop human capital and research output. Although the research is, initially, focused on issues related to the State of Missouri, the results are expected to have national implications for the economy, producers, consumers and environment.

  9. An economic order quantity model with shortage and inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wulan, Elis Ratna; Nurjaman, Wildan

    2015-09-01

    The effect of inflation has become a persistent characteristic and more significant problem of many developing economies especially in the third world countries. While making effort to achieve optimal quantity of product to be produced or purchased using the simplest and on the shelf classical EOQ model, the non-inclusion of conflicting economic realities as shortage and inflation has rendered its result quite uneconomical and hence the purpose for this study. Mathematical expression was developed for each of the cost components the sum of which become the total inventory model over the period (0,L) ((TIC(0,L)). L is planning horizon and TIC(0,L) is total inventory cost over a period of (0,L). Significant savings with increase in quantity was achieved based on deference in the varying price regime. With the assumptions considered and subject to the availability of reliable inventory cost element, the developed model is found to produce a feasible, and economic inventory stock-level with the numerical example of a material supply of a manufacturing company.

  10. TOWARD EFFICIENT RIPARIAN RESTORATION: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to determine the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts for water quality protection and salmonid habitat enhancement in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. The integrated modeling system co...

  11. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  12. Stokes integral of economic growth. Calculus and the Solow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimkes, Jürgen

    2010-04-01

    Economic growth depends on capital and labor and two-dimensional calculus has been applied to economic theory. This leads to Riemann and Stokes integrals and to the first and second laws of production and growth. The mathematical structure is the same as in thermodynamics, economic properties may be related to physical terms: capital to energy, production to physical work, GDP per capita to temperature, production function to entropy. This is called econophysics. Production, trade and banking may be compared to motors, heat pumps or refrigerators. The Carnot process of the first law creates two levels in each system: cold and hot in physics; buyer and seller, investor and saver, rich and poor in economics. The efficiency rises with the income difference of rich and poor. The results of econophysics are compared to neoclassical theory.

  13. Scale-up and economic analysis of biodiesel production from municipal primary sewage sludge.

    PubMed

    Olkiewicz, Magdalena; Torres, Carmen M; Jiménez, Laureano; Font, Josep; Bengoa, Christophe

    2016-08-01

    Municipal wastewater sludge is a promising lipid feedstock for biodiesel production, but the need to eliminate the high water content before lipid extraction is the main limitation for scaling up. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of biodiesel production directly from liquid primary sludge based on experimental data at laboratory scale. Computational tools were used for the modelling of the process scale-up and the different configurations of lipid extraction to optimise this step, as it is the most expensive. The operational variables with a major influence in the cost were the extraction time and the amount of solvent. The optimised extraction process had a break-even price of biodiesel of 1232 $/t, being economically competitive with the current cost of fossil diesel. The proposed biodiesel production process from waste sludge eliminates the expensive step of sludge drying, lowering the biodiesel price. PMID:27131292

  14. Black liquor fractionation for biofuels production - a techno-economic assessment.

    PubMed

    Mesfun, Sennai; Lundgren, Joakim; Grip, Carl-Erik; Toffolo, Andrea; Nilsson, Rasika Lasanthi Kudahettige; Rova, Ulrika

    2014-08-01

    The hemicelluloses fraction of black liquor is an underutilized resource in many chemical pulp mills. It is possible to extract and separate the lignin and hemicelluloses from the black liquor and use the hemicelluloses for biochemical conversion into biofuels and chemicals. Precipitation of the lignin from the black liquor would consequently decrease the thermal load on the recovery boiler, which is often referred to as a bottleneck for increased pulp production. The objective of this work is to techno-economically evaluate the production of sodium-free lignin as a solid fuel and butanol to be used as fossil gasoline replacement by fractionating black liquor. The hydrolysis and fermentation processes are modeled in Aspen Plus to analyze energy and material balances as well as to evaluate the plant economics. A mathematical model of an existing pulp and paper mill is used to analyze the effects on the energy performance of the mill subprocesses. PMID:24950095

  15. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Proper crop rotation is essential to maintaining high peanut yield and quality. However, the economic considerations of maintaining or altering crop rotation sequences must incorporate the commodity prices, production costs, and yield responses of all crops in, or potentially in, the crop rotation ...

  16. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  17. Supercritical biodiesel production and power cogeneration: technical and economic feasibilities.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, A; Anitescu, G; Rice, P A; Tavlarides, L L

    2010-03-01

    An integrated supercritical fluid technology with power cogeneration to produce biodiesel fuels, with no need for the costly separations involved with the conventional technology, is proposed, documented for technical and economic feasibility, and preliminarily designed. The core of the integrated system consists of the transesterification of various triglyceride sources (e.g., vegetable oils and animal fats) with supercritical methanol/ethanol. Part of the reaction products can be combusted by a diesel power generator integrated in the system which, in turn, provides the power needed to pressurize the system and the heat of the exhaust gases necessary in the transesterification step. The latter energy demand can also be satisfied by a fired heater, especially for higher plant capacities. Different versions of this system can be implemented based on the main target of the technology: biodiesel production or diesel engine applications, including power generation. The process options considered for biodiesel fuel production estimate break-even processing costs of biodiesel as low as $0.26/gal ($0.07/L) with a diesel power generator and $0.35/gal ($0.09/L) with a fired heater for a plant capacity of 15,000 gal/day (56,775 L/day). Both are significantly lower than the current processing costs of approximately $0.51/gal ($0.13/L) of biodiesel produced by conventional catalytic methods. A retail cost of biodiesel produced by the proposed method is likely to be competitive with the prices of diesel fuels. PMID:19939671

  18. Economical succinic acid production from cane molasses by Actinobacillus succinogenes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu-Peng; Zheng, Pu; Sun, Zhi-Hao; Ni, Ye; Dong, Jin-Jun; Zhu, Lei-Lei

    2008-04-01

    In this work, production of succinic acid by Actinobacillus succinogenes CGMCC1593 using cane molasses as a low cost carbon source was developed. In anaerobic bottles fermentation, succinic acid concentration of 50.6+/-0.9 g l(-1) was attained at 60 h using an optimum medium containing molasses pretreated with sulfuric acid, resulting in a succinic acid yield of 79.5+/-1.1% and sugar utilization of 97.1+/-0.6%. When batch fermentation was carried out in a 5-l stirred bioreactor with pretreated molasses, 46.4 g l(-1) of succinic acid was attained at 48 h and faster cells growth was also observed. Fed batch fermentation was performed to minimize the substrate (sugar) inhibition effect, giving 55.2 g l(-1) of succinic acid and 1.15 g l(-1)h(-1) of productivity at 48 h. The present study suggests that the inexpensive cane molasses could be utilized for the economical and efficient production of succinic acid by A. succinogenes. PMID:17532626

  19. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  20. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    SciTech Connect

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  1. Empirical Analysis and Modeling of the Global Economic System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Wen-Qi; Sun, Bo-Liang

    2009-09-01

    In the global economic system, each economy stimulates the growth of its gross domestic products (GDP) by increasing its international trade. Using a fluctuation analysis of the flux data of GDP and foreign trade, we find that both GDP and foreign trade are dominated by external force and driven by each other. By excluding the impact of the associated trade dependency degree, GDP and the total volume of foreign trade collapse well into a power-law function. The economy's total trade volume scales with the number of trade partners, and it is distributed among its trade partners in an exponential form. The model which incorporated these empirical results can integrate the growth dynamics of GDP and the interplay dynamics between GDP and weighted international trade networks simultaneously.

  2. Crop productivity and economics during the transition to alternative cropping systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing economic pressures and continued environmental concerns in agricultural production have heightened the need for more sustainable cropping systems. Research is needed to identify systems that simultaneously improve the economic and social viability of farms and rural communities while prot...

  3. The Production, Consumption and Distribution of Economic Podcasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swan, Kathy; Hofer, Mark; Swan, Gerry; Mazur, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Podcasting remains one of the hot "buzz words" in technology today--both in and out of schools. For high school economics teachers, there is a growing number of podcasts targeted for instruction on economics. While the podcasts can be useful resources for teachers trying to enhance students' economic thinking, they are not produced specifically…

  4. Hydro-economic Modeling: Reducing the Gap between Large Scale Simulation and Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forni, L.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Purkey, D.; Joyce, B. A.; Sieber, J.; Howitt, R.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of hydrological and socio economic components into hydro-economic models has become essential for water resources policy and planning analysis. In this study we integrate the economic value of water in irrigated agricultural production using SWAP (a StateWide Agricultural Production Model for California), and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) a climate driven hydrological model. The integration of the models is performed using a step function approximation of water demand curves from SWAP, and by relating the demand tranches to the priority scheme in WEAP. In order to do so, a modified version of SWAP was developed called SWEAP that has the Planning Area delimitations of WEAP, a Maximum Entropy Model to estimate evenly sized steps (tranches) of water derived demand functions, and the translation of water tranches into crop land. In addition, a modified version of WEAP was created called ECONWEAP with minor structural changes for the incorporation of land decisions from SWEAP and series of iterations run via an external VBA script. This paper shows the validity of this integration by comparing revenues from WEAP vs. ECONWEAP as well as an assessment of the approximation of tranches. Results show a significant increase in the resulting agricultural revenues for our case study in California's Central Valley using ECONWEAP while maintaining the same hydrology and regional water flows. These results highlight the gains from allocating water based on its economic compared to priority-based water allocation systems. Furthermore, this work shows the potential of integrating optimization and simulation-based hydrologic models like ECONWEAP.ercentage difference in total agricultural revenues (EconWEAP versus WEAP).

  5. The Changing Economic Model of Scholarly Publishing: Uncertainty, Complexity and Multi-media Serials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John

    1998-01-01

    Discusses scholarly publishing, comparing traditional, 80s, and present models of scholarly publishing; outlines economic factors characterizing the models: costs of production, subscription decline, numbers of articles published, editorial expenses and fees, office expenses, pressure for profit, start-up costs of new journals; and describes how…

  6. A physical and economic model of the nuclear fuel cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Erich Alfred

    A model of the nuclear fuel cycle that is suitable for use in strategic planning and economic forecasting is presented. The model, to be made available as a stand-alone software package, requires only a small set of fuel cycle and reactor specific input parameters. Critical design criteria include ease of use by nonspecialists, suppression of errors to within a range dictated by unit cost uncertainties, and limitation of runtime to under one minute on a typical desktop computer. Collision probability approximations to the neutron transport equation that lead to a computationally efficient decoupling of the spatial and energy variables are presented and implemented. The energy dependent flux, governed by coupled integral equations, is treated by multigroup or continuous thermalization methods. The model's output includes a comprehensive nuclear materials flowchart that begins with ore requirements, calculates the buildup of 24 actinides as well as fission products, and concludes with spent fuel or reprocessed material composition. The costs, direct and hidden, of the fuel cycle under study are also computed. In addition to direct disposal and plutonium recycling strategies in current use, the model addresses hypothetical cycles. These include cycles chosen for minor actinide burning and for their low weapons-usable content.

  7. Preliminary Economics for the Production of Pyrolysis Oil from Lignin in a Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefinery

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Susanne B.; Zhu, Yunhua

    2009-04-01

    price of $1.33 for the 2012 goal case process as reported in the 2007 State of Technology Model (NREL 2008). Hence, pyrolysis oil does not appear to be an economically attractive product in this scenario. Further research regarding fast pyrolysis of raw lignin from a cellulosic plant as an end product is not recommended. Other processes, such as high-pressure liquefaction or wet gasification, and higher value products, such as gasoline and diesel from fast pyrolysis oil should be considered in future studies.

  8. Optimal rate of oil production and economic development: the case of Kuwait

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Ebraheem, Y.H.

    1984-01-01

    This dissertation utilizes the optimal control technique to establish a national economic planning model through which Kuwait's oil extraction policy is determined with relation to the structure of its economy as well as the welfare of the nation. This has been advanced through two steps: 1) by building a macroeconomic model, which is used as a constraint on the planning model, to describe the economic structure of Kuwaiti economy; and 2) by constructing a welfare objective function to measure the preference of the policy makers along the planning period. A dynamic programming method is applied to solve for the optimal levels of the target and policy variables. The optimal levels of oil production that would finance the optimal levels of the policy variables are determined, using a basic government expenditure-revenue inequality. To determine these levels of oil revenue and, hence, these levels of oil production, different oil price scenarios are applied. This study obtains a satisfactory result and concludes that the optimal control technique is a feasible tool to be used for economic planning for the Kuwaiti economy.

  9. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    levels that are not optimal in the sense that they do not maximize social welfare. More generally, economic analysis has the potential to explain current investment and snow production levels and to determine optimal ones. It can also predict the evolution of these levels under a warmer climate. For instance, such predictions were carried out for Switzerland as well as for other Alpine countries using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with a time horizon up to 2050, the GEMINI-E3 model. With all these points in mind, this presentation aims at reviewing what has been done so far on the economic aspects of artificial snow production and also at identifying avenues for future research.

  10. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    S. Hendrickson; S.Tegen

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local(usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels,concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants.

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. A Home Production Activity Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beutler, Ivan F.; Owen, Alma J.

    1980-01-01

    The family is examined as a focal unit of production and a home production activity model is developed. An interdisciplinary approach is used which puts the broad range of family activities on a continuum from production to consumption. (Author/SK)

  13. Economic evaluation in chronic pain: a systematic review and de novo flexible economic model.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, W; Hirst, M; Beard, S; Gladwell, D; Fagnani, F; López Bastida, J; Phillips, C; Dunlop, W C N

    2016-07-01

    There is unmet need in patients suffering from chronic pain, yet innovation may be impeded by the difficulty of justifying economic value in a field beset by data limitations and methodological variability. A systematic review was conducted to identify and summarise the key areas of variability and limitations in modelling approaches in the economic evaluation of treatments for chronic pain. The results of the literature review were then used to support the development of a fully flexible open-source economic model structure, designed to test structural and data assumptions and act as a reference for future modelling practice. The key model design themes identified from the systematic review included: time horizon; titration and stabilisation; number of treatment lines; choice/ordering of treatment; and the impact of parameter uncertainty (given reliance on expert opinion). Exploratory analyses using the model to compare a hypothetical novel therapy versus morphine as first-line treatments showed cost-effectiveness results to be sensitive to structural and data assumptions. Assumptions about the treatment pathway and choice of time horizon were key model drivers. Our results suggest structural model design and data assumptions may have driven previous cost-effectiveness results and ultimately decisions based on economic value. We therefore conclude that it is vital that future economic models in chronic pain are designed to be fully transparent and hope our open-source code is useful in order to aspire to a common approach to modelling pain that includes robust sensitivity analyses to test structural and parameter uncertainty. PMID:26377997

  14. A proposed tool to integrate environmental and economical assessments of products

    SciTech Connect

    Senthil, Kumaran D.; Ong, S.K.; Nee, A.Y.C.; Tan, Reginald B.H

    2003-01-01

    An attempt has been made to interpret the outcomes of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in terms of environmental costs. This attempt ensures the environmental accountability of the products while LCA ensures their eco-friendly nature. Keeping this as an objective, a Life Cycle Environmental Cost Analysis (LCECA) model was developed. This new tool incorporates costing into the LCA practice. This model prescribes a life cycle environmental cost model to estimate and correlate the effects of these costs in all the life cycle stages of the product. The newly developed categories of eco-costs are: costs of effluent treatment/control/disposal, environmental management systems, eco-taxes, rehabilitation, energy and savings of recycling and reuse strategies. The mathematical model of LCECA determines quantitative expressions between the total cost of products and the various eco-costs. The eco-costs of the alternatives are compared with the computational LCECA model. This method enables the environmental as well as the economic assessment of products, which leads to cost-effective, eco-friendly design of products.

  15. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  16. Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

  17. External Economic Drivers and U.S. Agricultural Production Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    U.S agriculture operates in a market driven economy. As with other businesses, agricultural producers respond to economic incentives and disincentives and make decisions to maximize their welfare. In this paper we examine external economic drivers that shape agricultural systems. Specifically, we c...

  18. Modeling the economics of landfilling organic processing waste streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosentrater, Kurt A.

    2005-11-01

    As manufacturing industries become more cognizant of the ecological effects that their firms have on the surrounding environment, their waste streams are increasingly becoming viewed not only as materials in need of disposal, but also as resources that can be reused, recycled, or reprocessed into valuable products. Within the food processing sector are many examples of various liquid, sludge, and solid biological and organic waste streams that require remediation. Alternative disposal methods for food and other bio-organic manufacturing waste streams are increasingly being investigated. Direct shipping, blending, extrusion, pelleting, and drying are commonly used to produce finished human food, animal feed, industrial products, and components ready for further manufacture. Landfilling, the traditional approach to waste remediation, however, should not be dismissed entirely. It does provide a baseline to which all other recycling and reprocessing options should be compared. This paper discusses the implementation of a computer model designed to examine the economics of landfilling bio-organic processing waste streams. Not only are these results applicable to food processing operations, but any industrial or manufacturing firm would benefit from examining the trends discussed here.

  19. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  20. Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

    2004-11-01

    Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges to the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.

  1. Spatial Modeling of Indian Agriculture, Economic Activity and Population under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    We present a spatial model of economic activity and human population built on physical geography that takes particular account of its effects through agricultural productivity and transport costs for trade. A major component of this work is an agricultural model, driven in part by high-resolution climate data and model output. We put forward India as the initial region for this modeling work; India is a relatively data-rich country, it exhibits significant within-country spatial and temporal variation in agricultural productivity, urbanization rates, and population growth rates, and the climate dynamics of the monsoon are well-studied and expected to change on decadal time scales. Agricultural productivity is modeled as a function of soil, climate, and technology variables. Farmers locate optimally given varying geography and transport costs; in turn, food availability defines urbanization rates and economic activity in non-agricultural sectors. This “social system” integrated assessment model is a step towards a valuable policy tool, but requires a significant mobilization of data and a grid-cell-level system of equations to describe the underlying dynamics of the model. We test against past trends of social-natural system progression in demography, human location, income, food production, etc., and argue that the model could be used to assess future trends under varying climate change scenarios, and eventually serve to model feedbacks through effects on migration, population growth rates, or economic activity.

  2. Integrated Economic Modeling of Water Supply-Quality Tradeoffs: An Application to the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bair, L.; MacEwan, D.

    2015-12-01

    Sustainable water management in the San Joaquin Valley, California involves the complex interaction of agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental water use. California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 requires groundwater basins historically in a state of overdraft to bring the basin into a sustainable balance over the next 20 years. In addition to limiting groundwater availability, implementation of the SGMA has implications for surface and groundwater quality. Availability of groundwater influences agricultural production decisions, resulting in variation in agricultural runoff and changes to surface and groundwater quality. Changes in water quality have economic impacts on agricultural production and urban water use. These impacts range from reductions in crop productivity to costs of alternative water supplies to amend declining water quality. We model the impact of agricultural and urban groundwater availability on surface water quality within the San Joaquin and Kings River watersheds in the Central Valley, downriver to the Mendota Pool by linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), an integrated water supply-quality model, with SWAP (Statewide Agricultural Production Model), a regional agricultural economics model. The integrated model specifies the relationship between changes in groundwater availability, groundwater elevation, agricultural production, and surface water quality. We link the SWAT-SWAP model output to urban and agricultural economic loss calculations that are a function of water quality. Model results demonstrate the economic tradeoffs between groundwater availability and water quality. The results of the integrated economic water supply-quality model are applicable to other regions in California and elsewhere that contain complex water supply-quality interactions.

  3. A Simple Macro-Economic Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, J. L.

    1976-01-01

    A simplified model based on assumed linear realtionships between the main variables is used to show how changes in expenditure, tax rate, etc. affect other parts of the national economy in successive periods. See SO 505 143 for ordering information. (Author/ND)

  4. Model Learner Outcomes for Home Economics Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Cheryl, Ed.; And Others

    Chapter 1 of this document contains sets of statements adopted by either the Minnesota State Board of Education or the Minnesota State Legislature. They represent the hierarchy used by Department of Education staff as they develop model learner outcomes for each subject area. Contents include learner values, education system values, philosophy for…

  5. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  6. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

    2016-02-19

    It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

  7. Selection of Temporal Lags When Modeling Economic and Financial Processes.

    PubMed

    Matilla-Garcia, Mariano; Ojeda, Rina B; Marin, Manuel Ruiz

    2016-10-01

    This paper suggests new nonparametric statistical tools and procedures for modeling linear and nonlinear univariate economic and financial processes. In particular, the tools presented help in selecting relevant lags in the model description of a general linear or nonlinear time series; that is, nonlinear models are not a restriction. The tests seem to be robust to the selection of free parameters. We also show that the test can be used as a diagnostic tool for well-defined models. PMID:27550703

  8. Computer Simulation Models of Economic Systems in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Lester Sanford

    The increasing complexity of educational operations make analytical tools, such as computer simulation models, especially desirable for educational administrators. This MA thesis examined the feasibility of developing computer simulation models of economic systems in higher education to assist decision makers in allocating resources. The report…

  9. The Open Flip--A Digital Economic Model for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weller, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The advent of the internet and digital technologies has given rise to a number of new economic models. These have often been applied to education, but either through faults in the initial models or differences in the characteristics of the education sector, they have not proven to be widely applicable. The use of digital, network technologies…

  10. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 11 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  11. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  12. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  13. An economic model of haemophilia in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Murillo, C; Quintana, S; Ambriz, R; Benitez, H; Berges, A; Collazo, J; Esparza, A; Pompa, T; Taboada, C; Zavala, S; Larochelle, M R; Bentkover, J D

    2004-01-01

    A model was developed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with haemophilia in Mexico. A retrospective chart review of 182 type A haemophiliacs was conducted for patients aged 0-34 years receiving one of three treatments: (i) cryoprecipitate at clinic; (ii) concentrate at home; or (iii) concentrate at clinic. Patients treated at home experienced 30% less joint damage, used 13-54% less factor VIII, had four times fewer clinic visits, and utilized half as many hospital days than those treated at a clinic. For cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, the annual incidence rates of HCV and HIV were calculated to be 3.6% and 1.4% respectively. The life expectancy for patients receiving cryoprecipitate and those receiving concentrate was estimated to be 49 years and 69 years respectively, with 58% of cryoprecipitate patients predicted to die of AIDS before age 69. Across the lifespan, the average annual cost of care was US$11,677 (MN$110,464) for cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, US$10,104 (M$95,580) for concentrate at home patients and US$18,819 (MN$178,027) for concentrate at clinic patients. Using a 5% discount rate, the incremental lifetime cost per year of life added for treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic was US$738 (MN$6981). Rank order stability analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the cost of fVIII. These results indicate that treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic substantially improves clinical outcomes at reduced annual cost levels. PMID:14962215

  14. Citrus production systems to survive greening: economic thresholds.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advanced Production Systems (APS) and Open Hydroponic Systems (OHS) are proposed strategies for citrus production that could increase early production and sustain production at higher levels through perhaps the first 15 years of grove life. Higher tree densities, automated irrigation, and intensive ...

  15. Economic model for seaborne oil trade. Master`s thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Kian-Wah, H.

    1996-03-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-Cassel general-equilibrium system which possesses an economically meaningful equilibrium solution in terms of oil prices, freight rates and the pattern of oil distribution. The implementation of the model is completed using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The study concludes with a scenario study showing how the model could be used to examine the importance of South East Asia`s sealanes in world seaborne oil trade. The model shows the economic vulnerability of oil importing nations, especially Japan, the United States, and Western Europe, to a possible closure of South East Asian sealanes.

  16. Production system with process quality control: modelling and application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsou, Jia-Chi

    2010-07-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a great deal of research dedicated to the study of quality and the economics of production. In this article, we develop a dynamic model which is based on the hypothesis of a traditional economic production quantity model. Taguchi's cost of poor quality is used to evaluate the cost of poor quality in the dynamic production system. A practical case from the automotive industry, which uses the Six-sigma DMAIC methodology, is discussed to verify the proposed model. This study shows that there is an optimal value of quality investment to make the production system reach a reasonable quality level and minimise the production cost. Based on our model, the management can adjust its investment in quality improvement to generate considerable financial return.

  17. The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Chaker, Layal; Falla, Abby; van der Lee, Sven J; Muka, Taulant; Imo, David; Jaspers, Loes; Colpani, Veronica; Mendis, Shanthi; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Bramer, Wichor M; Pazoki, Raha; Franco, Oscar H

    2015-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have large economic impact at multiple levels. To systematically review the literature investigating the economic impact of NCDs [including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), cancer (lung, colon, cervical and breast), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)] on macro-economic productivity. Systematic search, up to November 6th 2014, of medical databases (Medline, Embase and Google Scholar) without language restrictions. To identify additional publications, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted authors in the field. Randomized controlled trials, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological studies and modelling studies carried out in adults (>18 years old) were included. Two independent reviewers performed all abstract and full text selection. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or consulting a third reviewer. Two independent reviewers extracted data using a predesigned data collection form. Main outcome measure was the impact of the selected NCDs on productivity, measured in DALYs, productivity costs, and labor market participation, including unemployment, return to work and sick leave. From 4542 references, 126 studies met the inclusion criteria, many of which focused on the impact of more than one NCD on productivity. Breast cancer was the most common (n = 45), followed by stroke (n = 31), COPD (n = 24), colon cancer (n = 24), DM (n = 22), lung cancer (n = 16), CVD (n = 15), cervical cancer (n = 7) and CKD (n = 2). Four studies were from the WHO African Region, 52 from the European Region, 53 from the Region of the Americas and 16 from the Western Pacific Region, one from the Eastern Mediterranean Region and none from South East Asia. We found large regional differences in DALYs attributable to NCDs but especially for cervical and lung cancer. Productivity losses in the USA ranged from 88 million

  18. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  19. Economics.

    PubMed

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation. PMID:27620113

  20. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  1. Land Resources for Crop Production. Agricultural Economic Report Number 572.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hexem, Roger; Krupa, Kenneth S.

    About 35 million acres not being cultivated have high potential for crop use and 117 million more have medium potential, according to the 1982 National Resources Inventory (NRI) conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA committees evaluated the economic potential for converting land based on physical characteristics of the soil; size…

  2. Children's Mental Health in Times of Economic Recession: Replication and Extension of the Family Economic Stress Model in Finland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Solantaus, Tytti; Leinonen, Jenni; Punam Ki, Raija-Leena

    2004-01-01

    This study evaluated the applicability of the family economic stress model (FESM) in understanding the influences of economic hardship on child mental health during a nationwide economic recession in Finland. The information was gathered from 527 triads of 12-year-olds and their mothers and fathers from a population sample. The structural equation…

  3. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  4. Economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis in dairy cows in the USA.

    PubMed

    Losinger, Willard C

    2006-05-01

    The goal of this study was to measure the economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in dairy cows in the USA, and of specific risk factors for PDD, in 1996. The method applied was an economic-welfare analysis of producer and consumer surplus, with the GUM Workbench used to analyse uncertainties in the measurements. Reduced milk production associated with PDD was found to reduce consumer surplus by Dollars 750 million +/- Dollars 580 million, and to increase the economic surplus of producers by Dollars 560 million +/- Dollars 470 million, with a net economic loss of Dollars 190 million +/- Dollars 130 million. An examination of the economic effects of specific epidemiologic risk factors for PDD showed that having dairy cows that were not born on the operation had important economic consequences associated with the disease, as did the type of land to which dairy cows had access during the winter months and the type of flooring on which cows walked. Washing hoof-trimming equipment between cows was an important biosecurity measure that was associated with reduced PDD. The epidemiologic model used also implicated hoof trimmers who trimmed cattle hooves on other operations as having an important economic impact associated with this disease, although this finding may have been erroneous. PMID:16569275

  5. Process economics of renewable biorefineries: butanol and ethanol production in integrated bioprocesses from lignocellulosics and other industrial by-products

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This chapter provides process economic details on production of butanol from lignocellulosic biomass and glycerol in integrated bioreactors where numerous unit operations are combined. In order to compare various processes, economic evaluations were performed using SuperPro Designer Software (versio...

  6. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  7. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  8. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  9. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  10. Redoing U.S. Economic History with Cliometric Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yohe, William P.

    1989-01-01

    Describes a computer simulation based on quarterly models of the U.S. economy during World War I, the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and World War II. Recommends using these simulations to teach facts and knowledge, and as heuristic devices to develop an understanding of complex economic and historical relationships. (LS)

  11. TOWARD EFFICIENT RIPARIAN RESTORATION: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on wa...

  12. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  13. A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

    PubMed Central

    Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2010-01-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

  14. A generic bio-economic farm model for environmental and economic assessment of agricultural systems.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Sander; Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K

    2010-12-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

  15. Hierarchical economic potential approach for techno-economic evaluation of bioethanol production from palm empty fruit bunches.

    PubMed

    Do, Truong Xuan; Lim, Young-Il; Jang, Sungsoo; Chung, Hwa-Jee

    2015-01-01

    A hierarchical four-level approach to determine economic potential (4-level EP) is proposed for preliminary techno-economic analysis of new processes. The 4-level EP includes input/output structure, process flow structure, heat integration (HI), and economic feasibility. Two case studies on a 30.2 t/d (or 12.7 million l/yr) bioethanol plant with and without jet fuel production from palm empty fruit bunches (EFB) were investigated by applying the 4-level EP. The plant flowsheet was established based on experiments in a 0.1t/d pilot plant, including sequential dilute acid and alkali pretreatment, and separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF). EP approached a more reliable value through the hierarchical 4-level EP. The heating energy was reduced considerably by HI. The product value was estimated at $0.8-$1.3/kg of equivalent bioethanol. It was suggested through sensitivity analysis that a large plant size, enhanced production yields, and capital cost reduction were necessary for the lignocellulosic bioethanol production to be profitable. PMID:25898083

  16. Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

    2016-04-01

    In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. PMID:26859327

  17. Economic impact study of consumer product efficiencies. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-05-30

    The economic impact study of household appliance efficiencies is briefly reported. Task I, Direct Impact on Industry, contains 4 subtasks: materials, labor inputs, energy inputs, and investment. Task II, Direct Impact on Consumers, contains 3 subtasks: life-cycle cost to the consumer, usage patterns, and long-term demand forecast and analysis. The 2 subtasks in Task III, Energy Savings and Impact on Utilities, are residential energy savings and cost and impact on utility generating capacity.

  18. Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, L. D.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of the economic aspects of water pollution control covering publications of 1976-77. This review also includes the policy issues of water management. A list of 77 references is presented. (HM)

  19. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  20. Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaz Martins, Teresa; Araújo, Tanya; Augusta Santos, Maria; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2009-06-01

    We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.

  1. Child death in the United States: productivity and the economic burden of parental grief.

    PubMed

    Fox, Melanie; Cacciatore, Joanne; Lacasse, Jeffrey R

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the economic consequences associated with the death of a child. The economic costs (funeral and medical expenses and productivity losses) of child death 6 months following the death were estimated based on 213 parents who had experienced the death of a child (usually unexpectedly and predominantly mothers). Findings suggest that productivity losses associated with child death comprise most of the costs and that the economic effects are substantial. Costs associated with on-the-job productivity losses ("presenteeism") outweigh the costs associated with absenteeism. To date, no research has empirically measured both absenteeism and presenteeism following bereavement. PMID:24588841

  2. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms.

    PubMed

    Khan, Nymul E; Myers, John A; Tuerk, Amalie L; Curtis, Wayne R

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus® bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2¢/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. PMID:25262429

  3. A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xuezhen; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability. PMID:24630402

  4. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms

    SciTech Connect

    Khan, NE; Myers, JA; Tuerk, AL; Curtis, WR

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus (R) bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2(sic)/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Economic analysis of royalactin production under uncertainty: Evaluating the effect of parameter optimization

    PubMed Central

    Torres‐Acosta, Mario A.; Aguilar‐Yañez, Jose M.; Rito‐Palomares, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Royalactin is a protein with several different potential uses in humans. Research, in insects and in mammalian cells, has shown that it can accelerate cell division and prevent apoptosis. The method of action is through the use of the epidermal growth factor receptor, which is present in humans. Potential use in humans could be to lower cholesterolemic levels in blood, and to elicit similar effects to those seen in bees, e.g., increased lifespan. Mass production of Royalactin has not been accomplished, though a recent article presented a Pichia pastoris fermentation and recovery by aqueous two‐phase systems at laboratory scale as a possible basis for production. Economic modelling is a useful tool with which compare possible outcomes for the production of such a molecule and in particular, to locate areas where additional research is needed and optimization may be required. This study uses the BioSolve software to perform an economic analysis on the scale‐up of the putative process for Royalactin. The key parameters affecting the cost of production were located via a sensitivity analysis and then evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. Results show that if titer is not optimized the strategy to maintain a low cost of goods is process oriented. After optimization of this parameter the strategy changes to a product‐oriented and the target output becomes the critical parameter determining the cost of goods. This study serves to provide a framework for the evaluation of strategies for future production of Royalactin, by analyzing the factors that influence its cost of manufacture. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 31:744–749, 2015 PMID:25737309

  6. Food Production and Services. Performance Objectives. Criterion Measures. Home Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryant, EuDell H.; And Others

    Several intermediate performance objectives and corresponding criterion measures are listed for each of eight terminal objectives for a food production and services course, which is designed to provide students with an opportunity to express and practice a broad range of food production and service occupations. Major concepts covered include…

  7. The economics of biomass production in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Walsh, M.E.; Lichtenberg, E.; Roningen, V.O.; Shapouri, H.

    1995-12-31

    Biomass crops (e.g. poplar, willow, switchgrass) could become important feedstocks for power, liquid fuel, and chemical production. This paper presents estimates of the potential production of biomass in the US under a range of assumptions. Estimates of potential biomass crop yields and production costs from the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL) are combined with measures of land rents from USDA`s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), to estimate a competitive supply of biomass wood and grass crops. Estimates are made for one potential biomass use--electric power production--where future costs of electricity production from competing fossil fuels set the demand price. The paper outlines the methodology used and limitations of the analysis.

  8. On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation--A Response.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schiller, Bradley

    1988-01-01

    Responding to Stiglitz's article "On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation," Schiller disputes the claim that there is growing dissatisfaction with textbooks, stating that the central issue in the debate is "how best to teach economic principles." Discusses the importance of effective textbook…

  9. Crop diversity effects on productivity and economic returns under dryland agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing crop diversity has been identified as a method to improve agronomic performance of cropping systems and increase provision of ecosystem services. However, there is a need to understand the economic performance of more diverse cropping systems. Crop productivity and economic net returns we...

  10. Modeling Production Plant Forming Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Rhee, M; Becker, R; Couch, R; Li, M

    2004-09-22

    Engineering has simulation tools and experience in modeling forming processes. Y-12 personnel have expressed interest in validating our tools and experience against their manufacturing process activities such as rolling, casting, and forging etc. We have demonstrated numerical capabilities in a collaborative DOE/OIT project with ALCOA that is nearing successful completion. The goal was to use ALE3D to model Alcoa's slab rolling process in order to demonstrate a computational tool that would allow Alcoa to define a rolling schedule that would minimize the probability of ingot fracture, thus reducing waste and energy consumption. It is intended to lead to long-term collaboration with Y-12 and perhaps involvement with other components of the weapons production complex. Using simulations to aid in design of forming processes can: decrease time to production; reduce forming trials and associated expenses; and guide development of products with greater uniformity and less scrap.

  11. A neuro-computational model of economic decisions.

    PubMed

    Rustichini, Aldo; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2015-09-01

    Neuronal recordings and lesion studies indicate that key aspects of economic decisions take place in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Previous work identified in this area three groups of neurons encoding the offer value, the chosen value, and the identity of the chosen good. An important and open question is whether and how decisions could emerge from a neural circuit formed by these three populations. Here we adapted a biophysically realistic neural network previously proposed for perceptual decisions (Wang XJ. Neuron 36: 955-968, 2002; Wong KF, Wang XJ. J Neurosci 26: 1314-1328, 2006). The domain of economic decisions is significantly broader than that for which the model was originally designed, yet the model performed remarkably well. The input and output nodes of the network were naturally mapped onto two groups of cells in OFC. Surprisingly, the activity of interneurons in the network closely resembled that of the third group of cells, namely, chosen value cells. The model reproduced several phenomena related to the neuronal origins of choice variability. It also generated testable predictions on the excitatory/inhibitory nature of different neuronal populations and on their connectivity. Some aspects of the empirical data were not reproduced, but simple extensions of the model could overcome these limitations. These results render a biologically credible model for the neuronal mechanisms of economic decisions. They demonstrate that choices could emerge from the activity of cells in the OFC, suggesting that chosen value cells directly participate in the decision process. Importantly, Wang's model provides a platform to investigate the implications of neuroscience results for economic theory. PMID:26063776

  12. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLM’s net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM’s assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  13. Economic assessment of different mulches in conventional and water-saving rice production systems.

    PubMed

    Jabran, Khawar; Hussain, Mubshar; Fahad, Shah; Farooq, Muhammad; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Alharrby, Hesham; Nasim, Wajid

    2016-05-01

    Water-saving rice production systems including alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and aerobic rice (AR) are being increasingly adopted by growers due to global water crises. Application of natural and artificial mulches may further improve water economy of water-saving rice production systems. Conventionally flooded rice (CFR) system has been rarely compared with AWD and AR in terms of economic returns. In this 2-year field study, we compared CFR with AWD and AR (with and without straw and plastic mulches) for the cost of production and economic benefits. Results indicated that CFR had a higher production cost than AWD and AR. However, application of mulches increased the cost of production of AWD and AR production systems where plastic mulch was expensive than straw mulch. Although the mulching increased the cost of production for AWD and AR, the gross income of these systems was also improved significantly. The gross income from mulched plots of AWD and AR was higher than non-mulched plots of the same systems. In conclusion, AWD and AR effectively reduce cost of production by economizing the water use. However, the use of natural and artificial mulches in such water-saving environments further increased the economic returns. The maximized economic returns by using straw mulch in water-saving rice production systems definitely have pragmatic implications for sustainable agriculture. PMID:26832873

  14. Impact of pretreatment and downstream processing technologies on economics and energy in cellulosic ethanol production

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background While advantages of biofuel have been widely reported, studies also highlight the challenges in large scale production of biofuel. Cost of ethanol and process energy use in cellulosic ethanol plants are dependent on technologies used for conversion of feedstock. Process modeling can aid in identifying techno-economic bottlenecks in a production process. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was performed for conversion of cellulosic feedstock to ethanol using some of the common pretreatment technologies: dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion. Detailed process models incorporating feedstock handling, pretreatment, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, ethanol recovery and downstream processing were developed using SuperPro Designer. Tall Fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) was used as a model feedstock. Results Projected ethanol yields were 252.62, 255.80, 255.27 and 230.23 L/dry metric ton biomass for conversion process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment technologies respectively. Price of feedstock and cellulose enzymes were assumed as $50/metric ton and 0.517/kg broth (10% protein in broth, 600 FPU/g protein) respectively. Capital cost of ethanol plants processing 250,000 metric tons of feedstock/year was $1.92, $1.73, $1.72 and $1.70/L ethanol for process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Ethanol production cost of $0.83, $0.88, $0.81 and $0.85/L ethanol was estimated for production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Water use in the production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment was estimated 5.96, 6.07, 5.84 and 4.36 kg/L ethanol respectively. Conclusions Ethanol price and energy use were highly dependent on process conditions used in the ethanol production plant. Potential for significant ethanol cost

  15. The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

    PubMed

    Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

    2015-12-01

    Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. PMID:26596651

  16. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  17. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  18. Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.; Clippe, P.; Pekalski, A.

    2004-06-01

    We develop a model for the evolution of economic entities within a geographical type of framework. On a square symmetry lattice made of three (economic) regions, firms, described by a scalar fitness, are allowed to move, adapt, merge or create spin-offs under predetermined rules, in a space- and time-dependent economic environment. We only consider here one timely variation of the “external economic field condition”. For the firm fitness evolution, we take into account a constraint such that the disappearance of a firm modifies the fitness of nearest-neighboring ones, as in Bak-Sneppen population fitness evolution model. The concentration of firms, the averaged fitness, the regional distribution of firms, and fitness for different time moments, the number of collapsed, merged and new firms as a function of time have been recorded and are discussed. Also the asymptotic values of the number of firms present in the three regions together with their average fitness, as well as the number of respective births and collapses in the three regions are examined. It appears that a sort of critical selection pressure exists. A power-law dependence, signature of self-critical organization is seen in the birth and collapse asymptotic values for a high selection pressure only. A lack of self-organization is also seen at region borders.

  19. Effect of product upgrading on Fischer-Tropsch indirect coal liquefaction economics

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, G.N.; Kramer, S.J.; Tam, S.S.; Fox, J.M. III

    1995-12-31

    Conceptual plant designs with cost estimates for indirect coal liquefaction technology to produce environmentally acceptable transportation liquid fuels meeting the Clear Air Act requirements were developed for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The designs incorporate the latest development in coal gasification technology and advanced Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) slurry reactor design. ASPEN process simulation models were developed to provide detailed plant material and energy balances, utility requirements, operating and capital costs. A linear programming model based on a typical PADD II refinery was developed to assess the values of the produced F-T products. The results then were used in a discounted cash flow spreadsheet model to examine the effect of key process variables on the overall F-T economics. Different models were developed to investigate the various routes of upgrading the F-T products. The effects of incorporating a close-coupled ZSM-5 reactor to upgrade the vapor stream leaving the Fischer-Tropsch reactor have been reported previously. This paper compares two different schemes of F-T was upgrading, namely fluidized bed catalytic cracking verse mild hydrocracking.

  20. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. PMID:23614394

  1. Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

    2010-09-01

    This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

  2. Cotton production and water quality: Economic and environmental effects of pollution prevention. Agricultural economic report

    SciTech Connect

    Crutchfield, S.R.; Ribaudo, M.O.; Hansen, L.T.; Quiroga, R.

    1992-12-01

    Cotton production, compared with other crops, is less likely to cause erosion-induced water-quality problems because cotton acreage is not the major source of erosion in most regions. For cotton production, the most widespread potential damages to water quality are nitrates from fertilizer polluting ground water and pesticides contaminating surface water. This damage could be reduced by restricting chemical and fertilizer use on all cotton production, but doing so could reduce cotton yields and raise cotton prices. The same level of water-quality improvement could be achieved at less cost by targeting the chemical use or erosion restrictions only to cotton farms with the most vulnerable soils. Data come from a 1989 USDA survey of cotton producers.

  3. Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Penny

    An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

  4. GEEF: a geothermal engineering and economic feasibility model. Description and user's manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-09-01

    The model is designed to enable decision makers to compare the economics of geothermal projects with the economics of alternative energy systems at an early stage in the decision process. The geothermal engineering and economic feasibility computer model (GEEF) is written in FORTRAN IV language and can be run on a mainframe or a mini-computer system. An abbreviated version of the model is being developed for usage in conjunction with a programmable desk calculator. The GEEF model has two main segments, namely (i) the engineering design/cost segment and (ii) the economic analysis segment. In the engineering segment, the model determines the numbers of production and injection wells, heat exchanger design, operating parameters for the system, requirement of supplementary system (to augment the working fluid temperature if the resource temperature is not sufficiently high), and the fluid flow rates. The model can handle single stage systems as well as two stage cascaded systems in which the second stage may involve a space heating application after a process heat application in the first stage.

  5. Economic evaluations with agent-based modelling: an introduction.

    PubMed

    Chhatwal, Jagpreet; He, Tianhua

    2015-05-01

    Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide an inductive or 'bottom-up' approach, i.e. individual-level behaviours define system-level components. ABMs have a unique property to capture emergence phenomena that otherwise cannot be predicted by the combination of individual-level interactions. In this tutorial, we discuss the basic concepts and important features of ABMs. We present a case study of an application of a simple ABM to evaluate the cost effectiveness of screening of an infectious disease. We also provide our model, which was developed using an open-source software program, NetLogo. We discuss software, resources, challenges and future research opportunities of ABMs for economic evaluations. PMID:25609398

  6. Economical Production of Pu-238: NIAC Phase I Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howe, Steven D.; Crawford, Douglas; Navarro, Jorge; O'Brien, Robert C.; Katalenich, Jeff; Ring, Terry

    2016-01-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238 (Pu-238). The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research (CSNR) has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. Potentially, the front end capital costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. In the Phase I NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. Finally, as the study progressed, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  7. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  8. Developing an economically feasible solar brooding system for broiler production

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, N.E.; Handy, W.E.

    1981-01-01

    A computer simulation was used to establish the allowable first cost for a solar collector and storage tank for use in broiler production. To meet the cost constraints, a pressure-stabilized, cylindrical concentrator was selected for use in the system. 4 refs.

  9. Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

    2015-10-06

    In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for microgrid. Electric power supply in microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Due to the fluctuation of solar and wind plants' output, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both power plants. On the other hand, with the growing trend of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PHEV), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. Not only the charging loads from PHEVs, but also the discharging output via Vehicle to Grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all the micro energy sources in microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in microgrid considering conventional, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in modern microgrid.

  10. Future Projections for Southern High Plains Agriculture Using Coupled Economic and Hydrologic Models and Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rainwater, K.; Tewari, R.; Willis, D.; Stovall, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Hernandez, A.; Mauget, S. A.; Leiker, G.; Johnson, J.

    2013-12-01

    The objective of the project was to evaluate the hypothesis that predicted climate change will affect the useful life of the Ogallala aquifer in the Southern High Plains (SHP) through its impact on the amount of irrigation withdrawals, and thus affect the yields and economic costs and net income. A ninety-year time frame has been considered, although the research team recognizes that long-term predictions of crop prices and selections are perhaps even more uncertain than long-term weather projections. Previous work by the research team recently demonstrated the development of regionally downscaled climate projections for the SHP. Quantitative projections of precipitation, potential evaporation, and temperature trends for the 90-yr duration were selected from a downscaled set of high-resolution (one-eighth degree) daily climate and hydrological simulations covering the entire Great Plains region, driven by the latest IPCC AR4 climate model outputs. These projections were used as input to the Ogallala Ag Tool software developed by the USDA-ARS to predict daily and seasonal values of those variables, which directly affect irrigation, at different locations in the study area. Results from the Ogallala Ag Tool were then used to drive future projected crop production functions for cotton, corn, wheat, and sorghum using the DSSAT crop model. These production functions were then included in an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling approach that coupled an economic optimization model with a groundwater hydrological model. The groundwater model was based on the Texas Water Development Board's Southern Ogallala Groundwater Availability Model, which has been recalibrated by the research team for previous applications. The coupling of the two models allowed better recognition of spatial heterogeneity across the SHP, such that irrigation water availability was better represented through the spatial variations in pumping demands and saturated thickness. With this hydrologic

  11. The economical production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas: Case studies, design, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    1995-10-01

    This project is a combination of process simulation and catalyst development aimed at identifying the most economical method for converting coal to syngas to linear higher alcohols to be used as oxygenated fuel additives. There are two tasks. The goal of Task 1 is to discover, study, and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas, and to explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. The goal of Task 2 is to simulate, by computer, energy efficient and economically efficient processes for converting coal to energy (fuel alcohols and/or power). The primary focus is to convert syngas to fuel alcohols. This report contains results from Task 2. The first step for Task 2 was to develop computer simulations of alternative coal to syngas to linear higher alcohol processes, to evaluate and compare the economics and energy efficiency of these alternative processes, and to make a preliminary determination as to the most attractive process configuration. A benefit of this approach is that simulations will be debugged and available for use when Task 1 results are available. Seven cases were developed using different gasifier technologies, different methods for altering the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas to the desired 1.1/1, and with the higher alcohol fuel additives as primary products and as by-products of a power generation facility. Texaco, Shell, and Lurgi gasifier designs were used to test gasifying coal. Steam reforming of natural gas, sour gas shift conversion, or pressure swing adsorption were used to alter the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas. In addition, a case using only natural gas was prepared to compare coal and natural gas as a source of syngas.

  12. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  13. Toward efficient riparian restoration: integrating economic, physical, and biological models.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Michio; Adams, Richard M; Wu, Junjie; Bolte, John P; Cox, Matt M; Johnson, Sherri L; Liss, William J; Boggess, William G; Ebersole, Joseph L

    2005-04-01

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on water temperatures and the subsequent impacts on endangered juvenile salmonid populations. The integrated modeling system consists of a physical model that links riparian conditions and hydrological characteristics to water temperature; a biological model that links water temperature and riparian conditions to salmonid abundance, and an economic model that incorporates both physical and biological models to estimate minimum cost allocations of conservation efforts. Our findings indicate that conservation alternatives such as passive and active riparian restoration, the width of riparian restoration zones, and the types of vegetation used in restoration activities should be selected based on the spatial distribution of riparian characteristics in the basin. The relative effectiveness of passive and active restoration plays an important role in determining the efficient allocations of conservation efforts. The time frame considered in the restoration efforts and the magnitude of desired temperature reductions also affect the efficient combinations of restoration activities. If the objective of conservation efforts is to maximize fish populations, then fishery benefits should be directly targeted. Targeting other criterion such as water temperatures would result in different allocations of conservation efforts, and therefore are not generally efficient. PMID:15763152

  14. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  15. Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011–2012

    PubMed Central

    Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Setting Data from the 2011–2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101 662 Indian households were used. Participants Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. Primary outcome measures The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Results Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (−0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (−0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were −0.832 in the poorest group and −0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (−0.557) and middle (−0.4537) groups. Conclusions Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and

  16. Golbal Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Production

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace Tyner

    2012-05-30

    The project had three main objectives: to build and incorporate an explicit biomass energy sector within the GTAP analytical framework and data base; to provide an analysis of the impact of renewable fuel standards and other policies in the U.S. and E.U, as well as alternative biofuel policies in other parts of the world, on changes in production, prices, consumption, trade and poverty; and to evaluate environmental impacts of alternative policies for bioenergy development. Progress and outputs related to each objective are reported.

  17. Modeling the economic value of a Chagas’ disease therapeutic vaccine

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Bruce Y.; Bacon, Kristina M.; Wateska, Angela R.; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Dumonteil, Eric; Hotez, Peter J.

    2012-01-01

    The health burden of Chagas’ disease (resulting from Trypanosoma cruzi infection) in Latin America (estimated to outweigh that of malaria by 5-fold and affect 2–6 million people in Mexico alone) has motivated development of therapeutic vaccines to prevent infection progression to severe disease. Our economic model for a Chagas’ therapeutic vaccine in Mexico suggests that a vaccine would be highly cost-effective and in many cases economically dominant (providing both cost savings and health benefits) throughout a range of protection durations, severe adverse event risk, and dosing regimens and would be most likely to provide a positive return on investment if the vaccine prevented (rather than delayed) the onset of cardiomyopathy. PMID:22894964

  18. Economic assessments of potato production systems in Maine

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Using an integrated enterprise and whole-farm budget model for a 324-ha medium-sized potato farm, the profitability of potatoes grown in combination with fifteen common potato rotation crops in Maine are evaluated. Enterprise budgets for all sixteen crops are calculated while a whole-farm budget syn...

  19. ENHANCED HYDROGEN ECONOMICS VIA COPRODUCTION OF FUELS AND CARBON PRODUCTS

    SciTech Connect

    Kennel, Elliot B; Bhagavatula, Abhijit; Dadyburjor, Dady; Dixit, Santhoshi; Garlapalli, Ravinder; Magean, Liviu; Mukkha, Mayuri; Olajide, Olufemi A; Stiller, Alfred H; Yurchick, Christopher L

    2011-03-31

    This Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory sponsored research effort to develop environmentally cleaner projects as a spin-off of the FutureGen project, which seeks to reduce or eliminate emissions from plants that utilize coal for power or hydrogen production. New clean coal conversion processes were designed and tested for coproducing clean pitches and cokes used in the metals industry as well as a heavy crude oil. These new processes were based on direct liquefaction and pyrolysis techniques that liberate volatile liquids from coal without the need for high pressure or on-site gaseous hydrogen. As a result of the research, a commercial scale plant for the production of synthetic foundry coke has broken ground near Wise, Virginia under the auspices of Carbonite Inc. This plant will produce foundry coke by pyrolyzing a blend of steam coal feedstocks. A second plant is planned by Quantex Energy Inc (in Texas) which will use solvent extraction to coproduce a coke residue as well as crude oil. A third plant is being actively considered for Kingsport, Tennessee, pending a favorable resolution of regulatory issues.

  20. Petroleum production structures: economic resources for Louisiana sport divers

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, K.J.; Thompson, M.E.

    1983-08-01

    The era of expanding petroleum production from marine waters began 12 miles off the Louisiana coast in 1947 with a joint operation. Since then, the expansion of drilling and production operations has continued until, in 1981, approximately 3,500 structures were located in the Gulf of Mexico. Of the total number of structures, federal and state waters off Louisiana contain 3,100. Scientific articles dealing with the role of structures in marine habitat and their relationship to sport fishing in the Gulf of Mexico increased over the decade. This newly publicized beneficial aspect of structures is particularly important to the marine fishery off Louisiana. The structures (to which Dugas et al. attribute 'nearly all of the offshore sport fishery') are called as platforms in their description: These platforms are supported by a prewelded framework of steel pipe. Structures in other areas of the country also attract marine life and sport fishermen. Catch rates by sport fishermen were two to three times higher near structures off California than near natural reefs. (Turner et al. 1969). This may be the result of the 'fish-concentrating' nature of structures.

  1. A model of egg production.

    PubMed

    Charles, D R

    1984-07-01

    A quantitative literature review has been used as the basis of an empirical simulation model of the responses in food intake and egg output of laying hens to temperature, light pattern, light intensity, feeding system type, crude protein, methionine, lysine and metabolisable energy. The financial consequences are considered, by the calculation of gross margin of egg value minus food cost. Response to protein intake in an optimal environment is taken as the first limiting factor. Depressions below the maximum are calculated for sub-optimal environments. The model was tested against a sample of flocks for which detailed records were available, and found to give realistic answers. A FORTRAN program was written which calculates egg output and food intake by 4-week production periods, permitting the user to examine the effects of management changes made during lay. Shortened versions of the model, based on annual values have been written for a programmable calculator. PMID:6478277

  2. Integrated Emergy and Economic Evaluation of Tea Production Chains in Anxi, China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emergy and economic methods were used to evaluate and compare tea production systems in Anxi, China. Tea production was classified into three phases, i.e., the nursery, the plantation and tea processing, and each phase was evaluated. The results showed that the nursery subsystems...

  3. The Historical Role of the Production Function in Economics and Business

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, David; Vaughan, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The production function explains a basic technological relationship between scarce resources, or inputs, and output. This paper offers a brief overview of the historical significance and operational role of the production function in business and economics. The origin and development of this function over time is initially explored. Several…

  4. Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from lignocellulosic residues in Colombia: a process simulation approach.

    PubMed

    Quintero, Julián A; Moncada, Jonathan; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-07-01

    In this study a techno-economic analysis of the production of bioethanol from four lignocellusic (Sugarcane bagasse, Coffee cut-stems, Rice Husk, and Empty Fruit Bunches) residues is presented for the Colombian case. The ethanol production was evaluated using Aspen Plus and Aspen Process Economic Analyzer carrying out the simulation and the economic evaluation, respectively. Simulations included the composition of lignocellulosic residues, which was determined experimentally. It was found that empty fruit bunches presents the highest ethanol yield from a dry basis point of view (313.83 L/t), while rice husk produced less ethanol (250.56 L/t). The ethanol production cost was assessed for the standalone ethanol plant and the ethanol plant coupled with a cogeneration system. Moreover, ethanol production cost using EFB was the lowest with (0.49 US$/L) and without (0.58 US$/L) cogeneration scheme. PMID:23665691

  5. Environmental and economic suitability of forest biomass-based bioenergy production in the Southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dwivedi, Puneet

    This study attempts to ascertain the environmental and economic suitability of utilizing forest biomass for cellulosic ethanol production in the Southern United States. The study is divided into six chapters. The first chapter details the background and defines the relevance of the study along with objectives. The second chapter reviews the existing literature to ascertain the present status of various existing conversion technologies. The third chapter assesses the net energy ratio and global warming impact of ethanol produced from slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.) biomass. A life-cycle assessment was applied to achieve the task. The fourth chapter assesses the role of emerging bioenergy and voluntary carbon markets on the profitability of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) landowners by combining the Faustmann and Hartmann models. The fifth chapter assesses perceptions of four stakeholder groups (Non-Government Organization, Academics, Industries, and Government) on the use of forest biomass for bioenergy production in the Southern United States using the SWOT-AHP (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat-Analytical Hierarchy Process) technique. Finally, overall conclusions are made in the sixth chapter. Results indicate that currently the production of cellulosic ethanol is limited as the production cost of cellulosic ethanol is higher than the production cost of ethanol derived from corn. However, it is expected that the production cost of cellulosic ethanol will come down in the future from its current level due to ongoing research efforts. The total global warming impact of E85 fuel (production and consumption) was found as 10.44 tons where as global warming impact of an equivalent amount of gasoline (production and consumption) was 21.45 tons. This suggests that the production and use of ethanol derived from slash pine biomass in the form of E85 fuel in an automobile saves about 51% of carbon emissions when compared to gasoline. The net energy ratio

  6. Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

  7. Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model.

    PubMed

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented. PMID:18363053

  8. Economic analysis of municipal wastewater utilization for thermoelectric power production

    SciTech Connect

    Safari, I.; Walker, M.; Abbasian, J.; Arastoopour, H.; Hsieh, M-K.; Theregowda, R.; Dzombak, D.; Miller, D.

    2011-01-01

    The thermoelectric power industry in the U.S. uses a large amount of freshwater. The large water demand is increasingly a problem, especially for new power plant development, as availability of freshwater for new uses diminishes in the United States. Reusing non-traditional water sources, such as treated municipal wastewater, provides one option to mitigate freshwater usage in the thermoelectric power industry. The amount of freshwater withdrawal that can be displaced with non-traditional water sources at a particular location requires evaluation of the water management and treatment requirements, considering the quality and abundance of the non-traditional water sources. This paper presents the development of an integrated costing model to assess the impact of degraded water treatment, as well as the implications of increased tube scaling in the main condenser. The model developed herein is used to perform case studies of various treatment, condenser cleaning and condenser configurations to provide insight into the ramifications of degraded water use in the cooling loops of thermoelectric power plants. Further, this paper lays the groundwork for the integration of relationships between degraded water quality, scaling characteristics and volatile emission within a recirculating cooling loop model.

  9. The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B.; Siddiqui, S.

    2015-05-01

    The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions.

  10. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    PubMed Central

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by