Science.gov

Sample records for production economic models

  1. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  2. Analyzing Company Economics Using the Leontief Open Production Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laumakis, Paul J.

    2008-01-01

    This article details the application of an economic theory to the fiscal operation of a small engineering consulting firm. Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief developed his general input-output economic theory in the mid-twentieth century to describe the flow of goods and services in the U.S. economy. We use one mathematical model that…

  3. Economic production quantity (EPQ) models under an imperfect production process with shortages backordered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Lie-Fern; Hsu, Jia-Tzer

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we develop economic production quantity (EPQ) models to determine the optimal production lot size and backorder quantity for a manufacturer under an imperfect production process. The imperfect production process is characterised by the fraction of defective items at the time of production γ. The paper considers different cases of the EPQ model depending on (1) whether γ is known with certainty or is a random variable, and (2) whether imperfect items are drawn from inventory (a) as they are detected, (b) at the end of each production period or (c) at the end of each production cycle. Straightforward convexity results are shown and closed-form solutions are provided for the optimal order and backorder quantities for each of the cases we considered. We provide two numerical examples: one in which the defective probability follows a uniform distribution and the second which we assume follows a beta distribution, to illustrate the effects of yield variability and timing of the withdrawal of defectives on the optimal solutions. We obtain similar results for both numerical examples, which show that both the yield variability and the withdrawal timing are not critical factors.

  4. Designing Adaptive Artificial Agents for an Economic Production and Conflict Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassani-M, Behrooz; Parris, Brett W.

    Production and conflict models have been used over the past 30 years to represent the effects of unproductive resource allocation in economics. Their major applications are in modelling the assignment of property rights, rent-seeking and defense economics. This paper describes the process of designing an agent used in a production and conflict model. Using the capabilities of an agent-based approach to economic modelling, we have enriched a simple decision-maker of the kind used in classic general equilibrium economic models, to build an adaptive and interactive agent which uses its own attributes, its neighbors' parameters and information from its environment to make resource allocation decisions. Our model presents emergent and adaptive behaviors than cannot be captured using classic production and conflict agents. Some possible extensions for future applications are also recommended.

  5. Evaluation of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuuskraa, V.A.; Hammersheimb, E.; Sawyer, W.

    1985-05-01

    The objective of the work performed under this directive is to assess whether gas hydrates could potentially be technically and economically recoverable. The technical potential and economics of recovering gas from a representative hydrate reservoir will be established using the cyclic thermal injection model, HYDMOD, appropriately modified for this effort, integrated with economics model for gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, and in the deep offshore Atlantic. The results from this effort are presented in this document. In Section 1, the engineering cost and financial analysis model used in performing the economic analysis of gas production from hydrates -- the Hydrates Gas Economics Model (HGEM) -- is described. Section 2 contains a users guide for HGEM. In Section 3, a preliminary economic assessment of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model is presented. Section 4 contains a summary critique of existing hydrate gas recovery models. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the model modification made to HYDMOD, the cyclic thermal injection model for hydrate gas recovery, in order to perform this analysis.

  6. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  7. A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production systems.

    PubMed

    Groen, A F; Jiang, X; Emmerson, D A; Vereijken, A

    1998-07-01

    A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production and the derivation of economic values in broiler breeding was developed and tested. The model distinguishes four production stages: multiplier breeder, hatchery, commercial grower, and processor. The processor is included to determine relationships for the price per kilogram of live weight and the quality of the carcass, either on a "whole sale" or "further processed" base. Quantity of product output for the system is fixed by a predetermined amount of kilogram carcass of final product broilers finished by the commercial grower. Profitability of production and cost prices per unit product for subsequent stages can be calculated. Exogenous parameters are easily changeable in order to calculate profitability and cost prices for different production levels or production circumstances. Economic values can be derived considering influences of changes in genetic merit for performance traits on profitability or cost price, for integrated and nonintegrated production systems. By changing exogenous parameters, the model can also be used to analyze profitability or derive economic values for other meat-type poultry, such as turkey. PMID:9657599

  8. From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Joohoan

    Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the commodity production:…

  9. Hydro-economic modeling of the role of forests on water resources production in Andalusia, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Álvarez-Palomino, Alejandro; Campos, Pablo

    2014-05-01

    The development of more refined information tools is a pre-requisite for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. Among these tools, hydro-economic models are favoured because they allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure and economic aspects into a coherent, scientifically-informed framework. We present a case study that assesses physically the water resources of forest lands of the Andalusia region in Spain and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of the forest surface water yield. We show how, based on available hydrologic and economic data, we can develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is part of the larger RECAMAN project, which aims at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income an capital generated by the forest land, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). Only a comprehensive integrated tool such as the one built within the RECAMAN project may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  10. An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

  11. Evaluation of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model. [Cyclic thermal injection

    SciTech Connect

    Kuuskraa, V.A.; Hammersheimb, E.; Sawyer, W.

    1985-05-01

    The objective of the work performed under this directive is to assess whether gas hydrates could potentially be technically and economically recoverable. The technical potential and economics of recovering gas from a representative hydrate reservoir will be established using the cyclic thermal injection model, HYDMOD, appropriately modified for this effort, integrated with economics model for gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, and in the deep offshore Atlantic. The results from this effort are presented in this document. In Section 1, the engineering cost and financial analysis model used in performing the economic analysis of gas production from hydrates -- the Hydrates Gas Economics Model (HGEM) -- is described. Section 2 contains a users guide for HGEM. In Section 3, a preliminary economic assessment of the gas production economics of the gas hydrate cyclic thermal injection model is presented. Section 4 contains a summary critique of existing hydrate gas recovery models. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the model modification made to HYDMOD, the cyclic thermal injection model for hydrate gas recovery, in order to perform this analysis.

  12. Comparative Research Productivity Measures for Economic Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huettner, David A.; Clark, William

    1997-01-01

    Develops a simple theoretical model to evaluate interdisciplinary differences in research productivity between economics departments and related subjects. Compares the research publishing statistics of economics, finance, psychology, geology, physics, oceanography, chemistry, and geophysics. Considers a number of factors including journal…

  13. Applying complex models to poultry production in the future--economics and biology.

    PubMed

    Talpaz, H; Cohen, M; Fancher, B; Halley, J

    2013-09-01

    The ability to determine the optimal broiler feed nutrient density that maximizes margin over feeding cost (MOFC) has obvious economic value. To determine optimal feed nutrient density, one must consider ingredient prices, meat values, the product mix being marketed, and the projected biological performance. A series of 8 feeding trials was conducted to estimate biological responses to changes in ME and amino acid (AA) density. Eight different genotypes of sex-separate reared broilers were fed diets varying in ME (2,723-3,386 kcal of ME/kg) and AA (0.89-1.65% digestible lysine with all essential AA acids being indexed to lysine) levels. Broilers were processed to determine carcass component yield at many different BW (1.09-4.70 kg). Trial data generated were used in model constructed to discover the dietary levels of ME and AA that maximize MOFC on a per broiler or per broiler annualized basis (bird × number of cycles/year). The model was designed to estimate the effects of dietary nutrient concentration on broiler live weight, feed conversion, mortality, and carcass component yield. Estimated coefficients from the step-wise regression process are subsequently used to predict the optimal ME and AA concentrations that maximize MOFC. The effects of changing feed or meat prices across a wide spectrum on optimal ME and AA levels can be evaluated via parametric analysis. The model can rapidly compare both biological and economic implications of changing from current practice to the simulated optimal solution. The model can be exploited to enhance decision making under volatile market conditions. PMID:23960140

  14. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. I: bio-economic model development and application to smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson M; Rewe, Thomas O; Kahi, Alexander K

    2015-02-01

    A deterministic bio-economic model was developed and applied to evaluate biological and economic variables that characterize smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Two pig production systems were considered namely, semi-intensive (SI) and extensive (EX). The input variables were categorized into biological variables including production and functional traits, nutritional variables, management variables and economic variables. The model factored the various sow physiological systems including gestation, farrowing, lactation, growth and development. The model was developed to evaluate a farrow to finish operation, but the results were customized to account for a farrow to weaner operation for a comparative analysis. The operations were defined as semi-intensive farrow to finish (SIFF), semi-intensive farrow to weaner (SIFW), extensive farrow to finish (EXFF) and extensive farrow to weaner (EXFW). In SI, the profits were the highest at KES. 74,268.20 per sow per year for SIFF against KES. 4026.12 for SIFW. The corresponding profits for EX were KES. 925.25 and KES. 626.73. Feed costs contributed the major part of the total costs accounting for 67.0, 50.7, 60.5 and 44.5 % in the SIFF, SIFW, EXFF and EXFW operations, respectively. The bio-economic model developed could be extended with modifications for use in deriving economic values for breeding goal traits for pigs under smallholder production systems in other parts of the tropics. PMID:25388212

  15. Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, G.

    2015-12-01

    Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

  16. Arctic Economics Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1995-03-01

    AEM (Arctic Economics Model) for oil and gas was developed to provide an analytic framework for understanding the arctic area resources. It provides the capacity for integrating the resource and technology information gathered by the arctic research and development (R&D) program, measuring the benefits of alternaive R&D programs, and providing updated estimates of the future oil and gas potential from arctic areas. AEM enables the user to examine field or basin-level oil and gas recovery,more » costs, and economics. It provides a standard set of selected basin-specified input values or allows the user to input their own values. AEM consists of five integrated submodels: geologic/resource submodel, which distributes the arctic resource into 15 master regions, consisting of nine arctic offshore regions, three arctic onshore regions, and three souhtern Alaska (non-arctic) regions; technology submodel, which selects the most appropriate exploration and production structure (platform) for each arctic basin and water depth; oil and gas production submodel, which contains the relationship of per well recovery as a function of field size, production decline curves, and production decline curves by product; engineering costing and field development submodel, which develops the capital and operating costs associated with arctic oil and gas development; and the economics submodel, which captures the engineering costs and development timing and links these to oil and gas prices, corporate taxes and tax credits, depreciation, and timing of investment. AEM provides measures of producible oil and gas, costs, and ecomonic viability under alternative technology or financial conditions.« less

  17. Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andrews, J.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

  18. Economics of hydrogen production

    SciTech Connect

    Gaines, L.L.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Much of the current interest in hydrogen (H/sub 2/) centers around its potential to displace oil and gas as a fuel. The results of this study should be useful to research and development managers making funding decisions, and they should also be of interest to energy analysts, economists, and proponents of a hydrogen economy. We examined the current costs of H/sub 2/ produced by commercially available technologies (from fossil fuels and by electrolysis) and projected these costs to 2010, to set cost goals for H/sub 2/ produced via new technologies. We also examined the sensitivity of H/sub 2/ costs to varying energy price forecasts, capital costs and the required rate of return on investment, and by-product credits. We find that conventionally produced H/sub 2/ will not break into the fuel market before 2010. 23 references, 19 figures, 12 tables.

  19. Mycotoxins in ethanol co-products: modeling economic impacts on the livestock industry and management strategies.

    PubMed

    Wu, Felicia; Munkvold, Gary P

    2008-06-11

    The rapidly expanding U.S. ethanol industry is generating a growing supply of co-products, mostly in the form of dried distillers' grain and solubles (DDGS) or wet distillers' grains (WDG). In the United States, 90% of the co-products of maize-based ethanol are fed to livestock. An unintended consequence is that animals are likely to be fed higher levels of mycotoxins, which are concentrated up to three times in DDGS compared to grain. The model developed in this study estimates current losses to the swine industry from weight gain reduction due to fumonisins in added DDGS at $9 million ($2-18 million) annually. If there is complete market penetration of DDGS in swine feed with 20% DDGS inclusion in swine feed and fumonisins are not controlled, losses may increase to $147 million ($29-293 million) annually. These values represent only those losses attributable to one mycotoxin on one adverse outcome on one species. The total loss due to mycotoxins in DDGS could be significantly higher due to additive or multiplicative effects of multiple mycotoxins on animal health. If mycotoxin surveillance is implemented by ethanol producers, losses are shifted among multiple stakeholders. Solutions to this problem include methods to reduce mycotoxin contamination in both pre- and postharvest maize. PMID:18444660

  20. Habitat Size Optimization of the O'Neill - Glaser Economic Model for Space Solar Satellite Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Detweiler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Creating large space habitats by launching all materials from Earth is prohibitively expensive. Using space resources and space based labor to build space solar power satellites can yield extraordinary profits after a few decades. The economic viability of this program depends on the use of space resources and space labor. To maximize the return on the investment, the early use of high density bolo habitats is required. Other shapes do not allow for the small initial scale required for a quick population increase in space. This study found that 5 Man Year, or 384 person bolo high density habitats will be the most economically feasible for a program started at year 2010 and will cause a profit by year 24 of the program, put over 45,000 people into space, and create a large system of space infrastructure for the further exploration and development of space.

  1. Conversion of bioprocess ethanol to industrial chemical products - Applications of process models for energy-economic assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rohatgi, Naresh K.; Ingham, John D.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment approach for accurate evaluation of bioprocesses for large-scale production of industrial chemicals is presented. Detailed energy-economic assessments of a potential esterification process were performed, where ethanol vapor in the presence of water from a bioreactor is catalytically converted to ethyl acetate. Results show that such processes are likely to become more competitive as the cost of substrates decreases relative to petrolium costs. A commercial ASPEN process simulation provided a reasonably consistent comparison with energy economics calculated using JPL developed software. Detailed evaluations of the sensitivity of production cost to material costs and annual production rates are discussed.

  2. The economics of food production.

    PubMed

    Upton, M

    1993-01-01

    Although world average food production per person is increasing there are many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where production has fallen in recent decades. The economic analysis of the world food problem concerns the dynamics of production, income, growth, demand and trade. The 'law of diminishing returns' suggests that labour incomes fall as population density increases. Capital investment and technological change, particularly with a land-saving bias, can overcome this effect. Such land-saving innovations are less appropriate where population densities are lower, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Innovations which reduce risk, such as stress- and disease-resistant crop varieties, may be more attractive to farmers. Communal or government action is required to ensure sustainability of food production; to reduce risk, through price stabilization, possibly crop insurance and contingency plans for famine relief; to promote equity and to ensure competitive market conditions. Public funding of agricultural research is necessary to promote growth in food supplies. If increases in supply do not keep pace with growth in demand, food prices rise, attracting resources into food production. If supply grows faster, food prices and farm incomes fall, driving resources out of agriculture. Resources may not move fast enough to correct imbalances. Primary producers are likely to face deteriorating terms of trade. Linkages between food production and other sectors are weak, so primary exports are not a good basis for economic development. Import substitution strategies may damage agriculture. Structural adjustment regimes have been adopted in some countries to correct imbalances and provide an incentive for farmers to increase production. Associated reductions in public expenditure may have a contrary impact. PMID:8149829

  3. Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, R. D.

    2003-04-01

    Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

  4. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  5. Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various sheep production types in the UK and France

    PubMed Central

    Alarcon, Pablo; Häsler, Barbara; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Corbière, Fabien; Rushton, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective The present study aimed to estimate and compare the economic impact of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in different sheep production holdings using partial budget and gross margin analyses in combination with production models. Participants The sheep production types considered were lowland spring lambing, upland spring lambing and early lambing flocks in the UK, and grass lamb flocks of the Centre and West of France, extensive lambing flocks and dairy sheep flocks in France. Methodology Two disease scenarios with distinct input parameters associated with reproductive problems were considered: low and high impact. Sensitivity analyses were performed for the most uncertain input parameters, and the models were run with all of the lowest and highest values to estimate the range of disease impact. Results The estimated net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the UK was £19.65–£20.85 for the high impact scenario and £6.40–£6.58 for the low impact scenario. No major differences were observed between the different production types. For France, the net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the meat sheep holdings was £15.59–£17.20 for the high impact scenario and £4.75–£5.26 for the low impact scenario. For the dairy sheep, the costs per year and ewe were £29.81 for the high impact scenario and £10.34 for the low impact scenario. Conclusions The models represent a useful decision support tool for farmers and veterinarians who are facing decisions regarding disease control measures. They allow estimating disease impact on a farm accounting for differing production practices, which creates the necessary basis for cost effectiveness analysis of intervention strategies, such as vaccination. PMID:26392876

  6. Techno Economic Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2010-04-01

    The Technoeconomic model is a computational model of a lignocellulosic biorefinery that can be used by industry to establish benchmarks of performance and risk-benefit analysis in order to assess the potential impact of cutting edge technologies. The model can be used to evaluate, guide, and optimize research efforts, biorefinery design, and process operation. The model will help to reduce the risk of commercial investment and development of biorefineries and help steer future research to thosemore » parts of the refining process in need of further developments for biofuels to be cost competitive. We have now aded modules for the following sections: feed handling, pretreatment, fermentation, product and water recovery, waste treatment, and steam/electricity generation. We have incorporated a kinetic model for microorganism growth and production of ethanol, inclouding toxin inhibition. For example, the feed handling section incorporates information regarding feedstock transport distance-dependent costs. The steam and electricity generation section now includes a turbogenerator that supplies power to be used by other unit operations and contains equations for efficiency calculations.« less

  7. Gary Becker: Model Economic Scientist

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents Gary Becker’s approach to conducting creative, empirically fruitful economic research. It describes the traits and methodology that made him such a productive and influential scholar. PMID:26705367

  8. Economics of Gypsum Production in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim

    The purpose of this research is to analyze the economics of gypsum production in Iran. The trend in production cost, selling price and profit are used to investigate economics of gypsum production. In addition, the multivariate time series method is used to determine factors affecting gypsum price in domestic market. The results indicated that due to increase in production and inflation, profitability of gypsum production has decreased during recent years. It is concluded that tariff and non-tariff barriers on mines machinery are among reasons for increasing production cost in Iranian gypsum mines. Decreasing such barriers could increase profitability of gypsum production in Iran.

  9. Behavioral externalities in natural resource production possibility frontiers: integrating biology and economics to model human-wildlife interactions.

    PubMed

    McCoy, N H

    2003-09-01

    Production possibility modeling has been applied to a variety of wildlife management issues. Although it has seen only limited employment in modeling human-wildlife output decisions, it can be expected that the theory's use in this area will increase as human interactions with and impacts on wildlife become more frequent. At present, most models applying production possibility theory to wildlife production can be characterized in that wildlife output quantities are determined by physically quantifiable functions representing rivalrous resources. When the theory is applied to human-wildlife interactions, it may not be sufficient to model the production tradeoffs using only physical constraints. As wildlife are known to respond to human presence, it could be expected that human activity may appear in wildlife production functions as an externality. Behavioral externalities are revealed by an output's response to the presence of another output and can result in a loss of concavity of the production possibilities frontier. Ignoring the potential of a behavioral externality can result in an unexpected and inefficient output allocation that may compromise a wildlife population's well-being. Behavioral externalities can be included in PPF models in a number of ways, including the use of data or cumulative effects modeling. While identifying that behavioral externalities exist and incorporating them into a model is important, correctly interpreting their implications will be critical to improve the efficiency of natural resource management. Behavioral externalities may cause a loss of concavity anywhere along a PPF that may compel managerial decisions that are inconsistent with multiple use doctrines. Convex PPFs may result when wildlife species are extremely sensitive to any level of human activity. It may be possible to improve the PPF's concavity by reducing the strength of the behavioral effect. Any change in the PPF that increases the convexity of the production set

  10. Economical Production of Pu-238

    SciTech Connect

    Steven D. Howe; Douglas Crawford; Jorge Navarro; Terry Ring

    2013-02-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238. The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100 M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. The new process will also produce dramatically less waste. Potentially, the front end costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. Under a NASA Phase I NIAC grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce at least 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. In addition, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  11. Switchgrass: Production, Economics, and Net Energy

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The critical questions for a biomass bioenergy production system are: • What are the economics? • Is energy from biomass net energy positive? • Is production system information available and verified? • Is the system sustainable? To address these questions, ten farmers in the mid-continental USA w...

  12. High titer L-lactic acid production from corn stover with minimum wastewater generation and techno-economic evaluation based on Aspen plus modeling.

    PubMed

    Liu, Gang; Sun, Jiaoe; Zhang, Jian; Tu, Yi; Bao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    Technological potentials of l-lactic acid production from corn stover feedstock were investigated by experimental and techno-economic studies. An optimal performance with 104.5 g/L in l-lactic acid titer and 71.5% in overall yield from cellulose in corn stover to l-lactic acid using an engineered Pediococcus acidilactici strain were obtained by overcoming several technical barriers. A rigorous Aspen plus model for l-lactic acid production starting from dry dilute acid pretreated and biodetoxified corn stover was developed. The techno-economic analysis shows that the minimum l-lactic acid selling price (MLSP) was $0.523 per kg, which was close to that of the commercial l-lactic acid produced from starch feedstock, and 24% less expensive than that of ethanol from corn stover, even though the xylose utilization was not considered. The study provided a prototype of industrial application and an evaluation model for high titer l-lactic acid production from lignocellulose feedstock. PMID:26454367

  13. An investment-production-regulatory model for firms in the offshore oil and gas industry. [Economic effects of proposed environmental regulations

    SciTech Connect

    Jin Di.

    1991-01-01

    This tripartite study examines the economic consequences of proposed environmental regulations on firms in the OCS oil and gas industry. The background part reviews the major issues associated with OCS oil and gas development and relevant environmental regulatory proposals. In the theoretical part, models are developed using optimal control theory and the theory of nonrenewable resources to analyze the impact of rising compliance cost on firm's behavior in terms of the investment and production rates over time. Finally, in the simulation part, an integrated investment-production-regulatory model is developed to simulate OCS development with and without the proposed environmental regulations. Effects of regulations are measured in terms of an increase in compliance costs and the associated reduction in net profits from oil and gas production. The theoretical results indicate that an increase in compliance costs will alter exploration, development and production rates. The total investments in exploration and development, and oil production will decrease as a result of rising compliance costs for exploration, development and production over the entire planning period.

  14. The behavioral economics of production.

    PubMed Central

    Allison, J; English, J

    1993-01-01

    In two experiments, thirsty rats licked an empty spout instrumentally for water delivered at a neighboring spout. Each such pair of spouts constituted a work station, and one, two, or three stations were available in the test enclosure. In 1-hr sessions, the rats worked alone or in the company of 1 or 2 other rats, and performed either five, 10, or 40 licks at the empty spout for each water delivery. The total number of empty-spout licks, summed across rats and stations, increased with the empty-lick requirement and, with some exceptions, the number of rats in the enclosure and the number of work stations available. A Cobb-Douglas production function, with instrumental responding as an output and the three independent variables as inputs, accounted for a significant percentage of the variance. Contrary to that function, output failed to increase with additional rats (or work stations) when the number of work stations (or rats) was relatively small. PMID:8283148

  15. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    PubMed

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  16. Impact of eradicating hepatitis C virus on the work productivity of chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) patients: an economic model from five European countries.

    PubMed

    Younossi, Z; Brown, A; Buti, M; Fagiuoli, S; Mauss, S; Rosenberg, W; Serfaty, L; Srivastava, A; Smith, N; Stepanova, M; Beckerman, R

    2016-03-01

    CH-C negatively affects work productivity (WP), creating a large economic burden. The aim of this study was to model the impact of sustained virologic response (SVR) on WP in CHC genotype 1 (GT1) patients in five European countries (EU5). Work Productivity and Activity Index-Specific Health Problem questionnaire was administered to patients across the ION clinical trials (n = 629 European patients). The analysis modelled a population of GT1 CHC patients over one year, who had been either not treated or treated with LDV/SOF. Sensitivity analyses assessed the possibility that CHC patients' labour costs were lower than the general population's and presented results by fibrosis stage. Before initiation of treatment, EU patients with CHC GT1 exhibited absenteeism and presenteeism impairments of 3.54% and 9.12%, respectively. About 91.8% of EU patients in the ION trials achieved SVR and improved absenteeism and presenteeism impairments by 16.3% and 19.5%, respectively. Monetizing these data, treatment with LDV/SOF resulted in an annual productivity gain of €435 million and a weighted average per-employed patient (PEP) gain of €900 in the EU5. PEP gains from treatment are projected to be higher in cirrhotic than in noncirrhotic patients. If CHC patients are assumed to earn 20% less than the general population, gains of €348 million (€720 PEP) annually are projected. CHC results in a significant economic burden to European society. Due to improvements in WP, SVR with treatment could provide substantial economic gains, partly offsetting the direct costs related to its widespread use. PMID:26482680

  17. Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

  18. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgenson, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  19. Ohio Economics: K-12 Model Course of Study in Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio Council on Economic Education.

    The K-12 Model Course of Study in Economics (MCSE) provides Ohio school district personnel with assistance in the development and implementation of economics courses of study for kindergarten through twelfth grade. The guide also offers information to help readers integrate economics into their curricula across disciplines. In addition to an…

  20. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    PubMed

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

  1. Economic model of OPEC coalition

    SciTech Connect

    Razavi, H.

    1984-10-01

    Efforts to formulate the economic behavior of OPEC are complicated because the coalition is made up of member countries, each of which pursues a different objective, arrives at its own optimum price and quantity, and has an opportunity to participate in a group consensus. This requires a new cartel model that will explain the coalitionary process, yet remain flexible enough to consider the diverse objectives of individual members. The author analyzes the possibility of realizing this consensus in relation to the differing politico-economic structures of the members. He concludes that the long-run stability of OPEC requires reversing some historical patterns, although offsetting effects may avoid a short-term instability. 19 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.

  2. DSEM. Disposal Site Economic Model

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, P.R.

    1989-01-01

    The DISPOSAL SITE ECONOMIC MODEL calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development.

  3. Ethanol production: energy, economic, and environmental losses.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, David; Patzek, Tad; Cecil, Gerald

    2007-01-01

    The prime focus of ethanol production from corn is to replace the imported oil used in American vehicles, without expending more fossil energy in ethanol production than is produced as ethanol energy. In a thorough and up-to-date evaluation of all the fossil energy costs of ethanol production from corn, every step in the production and conversion process must be included. In this study, 14 energy inputs in average U.S. corn production are included. Then, in the fermentation/distillation operation, 9 more identified fossil fuel inputs are included. Some energy and economic credits are given for the by-products, including dried distillers grains (DDG). Based on all the fossil energy inputs, a total of 1.43 kcal fossil energy is expended to produced 1 kcal ethanol. When the energy value of the DDG, based on the feed value of the DDG as compared to that of soybean meal, is considered, the energy cost of ethanol production is reduced slightly, to 1.28 kcal fossil energy input per 1 kcal ethanol produced. Several proethanol investigators have overlooked various energy inputs in U.S. corn production, including farm machinery, processing machinery, and the use of hybrid corn. In other studies, unrealistic, low energy costs were attributed to such inputs as nitrogen fertilizer, insecticides, and herbicides. Controversy continues concerning the energy and economic credits that should be assigned to the by-products. The U.S. Department of Energy reports that 17.0 billion L ethanol was produced in 2005. This represents only less than 1% of total oil use in the U.S. These yields are based on using about 18% of total U.S. corn production and 18% of cornland. Because the production of ethanol requires large inputs of both oil and natural gas in production, the U.S. is importing both oil and natural gas to produce ethanol. Furthermore, the U.S. Government is spending about dollar 3 billion annually to subsidize ethanol production, a subsidy of dollar 0.79/L ethanol produced. With

  4. Controlling chaos in an economic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Liang; Chen, Guanrong

    2007-01-01

    A Cournot duopoly, with a bounded inverse demand function and different constant marginal production costs, can be modeled as a discrete-time dynamical system, which exhibits complex bifurcating and chaotic behaviors. Based on some essential features of the model, we show how bifurcation and chaos can be controlled via the delayed feedback control method. We then propose and evaluate an adaptive parameter-tuning algorithm for control. In addition, we discuss possible economic implications of the chaos control strategies described in the paper.

  5. Economic aspects of amino acids production.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Udo; Huebner, Susanna

    2003-01-01

    Amino acids represent basic elements of proteins, which as a main source of nutrition themselves serve as a major reserve for maintaining essential functions of humans as well as animals. Taking the recent state of scientific knowledge into account, the industrial sector of amino acids is a priori "suitable" to a specific kind of an ecologically sound way of production, which is based on biotechnology. The following article may point out characteristics of this particular industrial sector and illustrates the applicability of the latest economic methods, founded on development of the discipline of bionics in order to describe economic aspects of amino acids markets. The several biochemical and technological fields of application of amino acids lead to specific market structures in high developed and permanently evolving systems. The Harvard tradition of industrial economics explains how market structures mould the behaviour of the participants and influences market results beyond that. A global increase in intensity of competition confirms the notion that the supply-side is characterised by asymmetric information in contrast to Kantzenbachs concept of "narrow oligopoly" with symmetrical shared knowledge about market information. Departing from this point, certain strategies of companies in this market form shall be derived. The importance of Research and Development increases rapidly and leads to innovative manufacturing methods which replace more polluting manufacturing processes like acid hydrolysis. In addition to these modifications within the production processes the article deals furthermore with the pricing based on product life cycle concept and introduces specific applications of tools like activity based costing and target costing to the field of amino acid production. The authors come to the conclusion that based on a good transferability of latest findings in bionics and ecological compatibility competitors in amino acids manufacturing are well advised

  6. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  7. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  8. Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.

    PubMed

    Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in

  9. Scleroglucan biopolymer production, properties, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Compere, A. L.; Griffith, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Production and solution properties which may make scleroglucan polysaccharide economically advantageous for onsite production and use in tertiary oil recovery were investigated. Scleroglucan, which is similar in viscosity and shear thinning to xanthan, can be produced in a 3-day batch or 12 h continuous fermentation. Yield is nearly 50% based on input glucose. Gross biopolymer-biomass separation may be effected using microscreening, a low energy process, followed by polish filtration. Polymer flux may be improved by hydrolysis with an endolaminarinase from Rhizopus arrhizius QM 1032. Simple feedstock requirements and low growth pH, together with the difficulty of resuspending dried polymer, may encourage field biopolymer fermentation and use of purified culture broth.

  10. Economic values of production and functional traits, including residual feed intake, in Finnish milk production.

    PubMed

    Hietala, P; Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Kantanen, J; Juga, J

    2014-02-01

    Improving the feed efficiency of dairy cattle has a substantial effect on the economic efficiency and on the reduction of harmful environmental effects of dairy production through lower feeding costs and emissions from dairy farming. To assess the economic importance of feed efficiency in the breeding goal for dairy cattle, the economic values for the current breeding goal traits and the additional feed efficiency traits for Finnish Ayrshire cattle under production circumstances in 2011 were determined. The derivation of economic values was based on a bioeconomic model in which the profit of the production system was calculated, using the generated steady state herd structure. Considering beef production from dairy farms, 2 marketing strategies for surplus calves were investigated: (A) surplus calves were sold at a young age and (B) surplus calves were fattened on dairy farms. Both marketing strategies were unprofitable when subsidies were not included in the revenues. When subsidies were taken into account, a positive profitability was observed in both marketing strategies. The marginal economic values for residual feed intake (RFI) of breeding heifers and cows were -25.5 and -55.8 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year, respectively. The marginal economic value for RFI of animals in fattening was -29.5 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year. To compare the economic importance among traits, the standardized economic weight of each trait was calculated as the product of the marginal economic value and the genetic standard deviation; the standardized economic weight expressed as a percentage of the sum of all standardized economic weights was called relative economic weight. When not accounting for subsidies, the highest relative economic weight was found for 305-d milk yield (34% in strategy A and 29% in strategy B), which was followed by protein percentage (13% in strategy A and 11% in strategy B). The third most important traits were calving

  11. Preliminary Economics for Hydrocarbon Fuel Production from Cellulosic Sugars

    SciTech Connect

    Collett, James R.; Meyer, Pimphan A.; Jones, Susanne B.

    2014-05-18

    Biorefinery process and economic models built in CHEMCAD and a preliminary, genome-scale metabolic model for the oleaginous yeast Lipomyces starkeyi were used to simulate the bioconversion of corn stover to lipids, and the upgrading of these hydrocarbon precursors to diesel and jet fuel. The metabolic model was based on the recently released genome sequence for L. starkeyi and on metabolic pathway information from the literature. The process model was based on bioconversion, lipid extraction, and lipid oil upgrading data found in literature, on new laboratory experimental data, and on yield predictions from the preliminary L. starkeyi metabolic model. The current plant gate production cost for a distillate-range hydrocarbon fuel was estimated by the process model Base Case to be $9.5/gallon ($9.0 /gallon of gasoline equivalent) with assumptions of 2011$, 10% internal return on investment, and 2205 ton/day dry feed rate. Opportunities for reducing the cost to below $5.0/gallon, such as improving bioconversion lipid yield and hydrogenation catalyst selectivity, are presented in a Target Case. The process and economic models developed for this work will be updated in 2014 with new experimental data and predictions from a refined metabolic network model for L. starkeyi. Attaining a production cost of $3.0/gallon will require finding higher value uses for lignin other than power generation, such as conversion to additional fuel or to a co-product.

  12. Economical production and transshipment policy for coordinating multiple production sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Taebok; Goyal, Suresh Kumar

    2012-05-01

    In this article, we study the coordination mechanism dealing with a production-transshipment policy across the multiple regions supplying multiple products. It is assumed that each production site has its own dedicated demand region consuming multiple products. The main concern is how to determine both the production quantity and the lot-apportioning policy while minimising the relevant supply chain cost. This decision issue is formulated as a non-linear mathematical model to determine several relevant decision variables. We propose the solution procedure for deriving the production-transshipment policy minimising the overall supply chain cost.

  13. Economic lot sizing in a production system with random demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Shine-Der; Yang, Chin-Ming; Lan, Shu-Chuan

    2016-04-01

    An extended economic production quantity model that copes with random demand is developed in this paper. A unique feature of the proposed study is the consideration of transient shortage during the production stage, which has not been explicitly analysed in existing literature. The considered costs include set-up cost for the batch production, inventory carrying cost during the production and depletion stages in one replenishment cycle, and shortage cost when demand cannot be satisfied from the shop floor immediately. Based on renewal reward process, a per-unit-time expected cost model is developed and analysed. Under some mild condition, it can be shown that the approximate cost function is convex. Computational experiments have demonstrated that the average reduction in total cost is significant when the proposed lot sizing policy is compared with those with deterministic demand.

  14. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  15. Drilling and production - Economics show CO2 EOR potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dubois, M.K.; Byrnes, A.P.

    2000-01-01

    CO2 EOR may be the key to recovering hundreds of millions of bbl of trapped oil from the mature fields in central Kansas. A simple model aided in assessing the economics of CO2 EOR for central Kansas and the Midcontinent. The model used CO2 Prophet, a DOE freeware reservoir numerical simulation program, to determine reservoir performance, including injected and produced fluid rates, and CO2 utilization. Economic parameters, e.g., oil price, CO2 costs, capital costs, net revenue interest, production taxes, and lease operating expenses, are typical for anticipated conditions in the region and present price climate. Preliminary economic analysis shows that CO2 EOR should give an internal rate of return (IRR) > 20%, before income tax, assuming oil sells for $20/bbl, CO2 costs $1/million cu ft, and gross utilization is 10 million cu ft of CO2/bbl of oil recovered. If the CO2 is reduced to $0.75/million cu ft, an oil price of $17/bbl yields an IRR of 20%. Reservoir and economic modeling shows that IRR is most sensitive to oil price and CO2 cost.

  16. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  17. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate. PMID:26503051

  18. ALTERNATIVES FOR REDUCING INSECTICIDES ON COTTON AND CORN: ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT - SUPPLEMENT 2: PROCEDURES USED IN SETTING UP THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The procedures used in setting up the agricultural production model used in a study of alternatives for reducing insecticides on cotton and corn are described. The major analytical tool used is a spatial equilibrium model of U.S. agriculture. This is a linear programming model th...

  19. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  20. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    SciTech Connect

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  1. ECONOMIC MODELING OF ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    CAMD performs a variety of economic modeling analyses to evaluate the impact of air emissions control policies on the electric power sector. A range of tools are used for this purpose including linear programming models, general equilibrium models, and spreadsheet models. Examp...

  2. Productivity: The New Economic Context. Worldwatch Paper 49.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newland, Kathleen

    Worldwide economic productivity is examined in this paper. There are seven major sections. Section 1 is an introduction which discusses how as the seventies came to a close without producing a strong and sustained recovery from global economic recession, the spotlight of public concern focused on the problem of productivity. Trends which have…

  3. Economics. Does science drive the productivity train?

    PubMed

    Malakoff, D

    2000-08-25

    From the president on down, many are hailing science as the fuel for today's booming economy, and bigger research budgets are seen as essential to continued prosperity. But skeptics say the information technology revolution is overrated as a contributor to economic growth when compared to the truly society-shaking innovations of the past, such as electricity or the telephone. Even some science lobbyists worry that hitching basic research's star too closely to economic arguments could backfire, prompting legislators to take a firmer hand in guiding cash toward less risky projects that they believe will pay off big. PMID:10979847

  4. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    SciTech Connect

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  5. Economic development and the allocation of petroleum products in Sudan

    SciTech Connect

    Cain, M. ); Yousif, M.A.R. )

    1991-01-01

    The Sudanese economy has been characterized in recent years by severe energy shortages which have affected all economic activity. More than 94% of the commercial energy is imported and the level of such imports is seriously limited by the current foreign exchange crisis. However, the problem is not just one of foreign exchange; there is also the problem of utilization of resources to avoid bottleneck problems of supply. The allocation of petroleum products in Sudan has had a severe effect on all aspects of economic life. The aim of this paper is to highlight the problem and to build a model to optimize the distribution of petroleum products in order to achieve at least a minimal supply in all regions. A large linear programming model has been developed and the solution indicates that current facilities should be able to satisfy 96% of the 1986 demand, about 30% more than the actual supply. Furthermore, with a little investment in storage facilities and extra trucks, the supply could satisfy total demand in the immediate future.

  6. An Economic Model for Selective Admissions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haglund, Alma

    1978-01-01

    The author presents an economic model for selective admissions to postsecondary nursing programs. Primary determinants of the admissions model are employment needs, availability of educational resources, and personal resources (ability and learning potential). As there are more applicants than resources, selective admission practices are…

  7. The Commercialisation of University Research and Economic Productivity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Paul

    2007-01-01

    This article focuses on the relationship between university research (in this case science research) and national economic productivity, particularly in the context of the emerging knowledge economy. It addresses the question of whether university research output should be treated as a public good or a private good, in economic terms, and analyses…

  8. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    PubMed

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems. PMID:20146761

  9. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America.

    PubMed

    Hsiang, Solomon M

    2010-08-31

    Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (-2.4%/+1 degrees C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (-0.1%/+1 degrees C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change. PMID:20713696

  10. Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

    2004-12-01

    Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

  11. Making dynamic modeling effective in economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2005-09-01

    Mathematics has been extremely effective in physics, but not in economics beyond finance. To establish economics as science we should follow the Galilean method and try to deduce mathematical models of markets from empirical data, as has been done for financial markets. Financial markets are nonstationary. This means that ‘value’ is subjective. Nonstationarity also means that the form of the noise in a market cannot be postulated a priori, but must be deduced from the empirical data. I discuss the essence of complexity in a market as unexpected events, and end with a biologically motivated speculation about market growth.

  12. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  13. Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 1: Economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milligan, Michael R.

    1999-10-01

    As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators continues to increase in utility-scale applications, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry in the United States appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This article is the first of two which address modelling approaches and results obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This first article addresses the basic economic issues associated with electricity production from several generators that include large-scale wind power plants. An important part of this discussion is the role of unit commitment and economic dispatch in production cost models. This paper includes overviews and comparisons of the prevalent production cost modelling methods, including several case studies applied to a variety of electric utilities. The second article discusses various methods of assessing capacity credit and results from several reliability-based studies performed at NREL.

  14. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  15. [Economic dimension and environmental impact of beef production in France].

    PubMed

    Peyraud, Jean-Louis

    2011-11-01

    Following recent publication of data on its environmental impact, beef production is being strongly challenged. However, these data concern global ruminant production, which is highly diverse and does not necessarily correspond to the European and French situations. While it is undeniable that ruminant production contributes to global warming, there are several ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and permanent pastures serve as carbon sinks. Beef production is also a vital economic sector for many regions, where it would not be possible to produce cereals or to develop intensive animal production systems. Beef production also contributes to many collective services, justifying its continued financial support. PMID:22844743

  16. Using data collected for production or economic purposes to research production animal welfare: an epidemiological approach.

    PubMed

    Dewey, Cate; Haley, Charles; Widowski, Tina; Friendship, Robert; Sunstrum, Janet; Richardson, Karen

    2009-01-01

    Epidemiologists use the analyses of large data sets collected for production or economic purposes to research production nonhuman animal welfare issues in the commercial setting. This approach is particularly useful if the welfare issue is rare or hard to reproduce. However, to ensure the information is accurate, it is essential to carefully validate these data. The study used economic data to research in-transit deaths of finishing pigs. The most appropriate model to fit the distribution of the outcome must be selected. A negative binomial model fit these data because the prevalence was low and most lots of pigs had no deaths. The study used hierarchical dummy variables to identify thresholds of temperature and humidity above which in-transit losses increased. Multiple variable modeling provides the foundation for the strength of epidemiological research. The model identifies the association between each factor and the outcome after controlling for the other factors in the model. The study evaluated confounding and interaction. Bias may be introduced when data are limited to one farm system, one abattoir, or one season. Census data enable us to understand the entire industry. PMID:19319713

  17. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  18. Sparse High Dimensional Models in Economics

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Lv, Jinchi; Qi, Lei

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on sparse high dimensional models and discusses some applications in economics and finance. Recent developments of theory, methods, and implementations in penalized least squares and penalized likelihood methods are highlighted. These variable selection methods are proved to be effective in high dimensional sparse modeling. The limits of dimensionality that regularization methods can handle, the role of penalty functions, and their statistical properties are detailed. Some recent advances in ultra-high dimensional sparse modeling are also briefly discussed. PMID:22022635

  19. The economic mobility in money transfer models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Ning; Xi, Ning; Wang, Yougui

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in four money transfer models which have been applied into the research on wealth distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the time series of agents’ ranks and observing their volatility. We also compare the mobility quantitatively by employing an index, “the per capita aggregate change in log-income”, proposed by economists. Like the shape of distribution, the character of mobility is also decided by the trading rule in these transfer models. It is worth noting that even though two models have the same type of distribution, their mobility characters may be quite different.

  20. Cognitive Capitalism: Economic Freedom Moderates the Effects of Intellectual and Average Classes on Economic Productivity.

    PubMed

    Coyle, Thomas R; Rindermann, Heiner; Hancock, Dale

    2016-10-01

    Cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity. However, the effects of cognitive ability may be stronger in free and open economies, where competition rewards merit and achievement. To test this hypothesis, ability levels of intellectual classes (top 5%) and average classes (country averages) were estimated using international student assessments (Programme for International Student Assessment; Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) (N = 99 countries). The ability levels were correlated with indicators of economic freedom (Fraser Institute), scientific achievement (patent rates), innovation (Global Innovation Index), competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Index), and wealth (gross domestic product). Ability levels of intellectual and average classes strongly predicted all economic criteria. In addition, economic freedom moderated the effects of cognitive ability (for both classes), with stronger effects at higher levels of freedom. Effects were particularly robust for scientific achievements when the full range of freedom was analyzed. The results support cognitive capitalism theory: cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity, and its effects are enhanced by economic freedom. PMID:27458006

  1. Economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production within a biomass system

    SciTech Connect

    Hertzmark, D.; Flaim, S.; Ray, D.; Parvin, G.

    1980-12-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production in the United States is discussed. The beverage fermentation processes are compared and contrasted with the wet milling of corn, and alternative agricultural products for alcohol production are discussed. Alcohol costs for different fermentation methods and for various agricultural crops (corn, sugar cane, sugar beets, etc.) are presented, along with a brief discussion of US government policy implications. (JMT)

  2. Models for Products

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Speiser, Bob; Walter, Chuck

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how models can support productive thinking. For us a model is a "thing", a tool to help make sense of something. We restrict attention to specific models for whole-number multiplication, hence the wording of the title. They support evolving thinking in large measure through the ways their users redesign them. They assume new…

  3. Economic aspects of production of Caiman crocodilus yacare.

    PubMed

    Carreira, Laura B T; Sabbag, Omar J

    2015-03-01

    The breeding of crocodilians is still a recent activity in Brazil. Its peak was in the 1990's, but it has gaps in its production, as there are no norms for the commercial breeding of these animals in captivity. However, its economic potential is great, and the search for ecological balance and viability of commercial production has become a challenge among farmers of this activity. Therefor, the objective of the study was to economically analyze the production of Caiman crocodilus yacare on a farm located in Caceres, state of Mato Grosso, identifying relevant items of costs in the activity, as well as the parameters related to the profitability and viability of the activity. The economic results for the breeding of this animal were positive, with profitability ratios higher than 70%. PMID:25806993

  4. [Demo-economic models of development: evolution and recent trends].

    PubMed

    Bourcier De Carbon, P

    1983-01-01

    Among the recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest was the elaboration of empirical and inductive demographic-economic models to assist in planning. 1 of the disadvantages of existing models and systems of national income accounting was that income distribution was ignored in favor of the total value of production. Demographic variables were not regarded as endogenous. By the early 1970s, the societal changes attendant on rural exodus and urban unemployment, the increasing absorption of traditional structures into the modern sector, and changes in the roles of women and young people had become obvious, and the need for new models that would reflect such changes was clear. Some macromodels designed to assist medium and long range planning were 1st elaborated in the mid 1970s; the Bachue development models were particularly promising because of their improved database. New models were developed which incorporated consumption problems based on basic needs. An increased focus on the interaction of macroeconomic variables with microsociological and demographic variables, the household and family, and employment and the labor market became necessary. The Bachue models, which had been the most successful of recent models in integrating economic and sociodemographic structures and variables, usually include 4 principal modules which cover demography and the educational system, the economy, employment, and income distribution; basic needs models include a 5th module. The Bachue models are based on a general equilibrium model subject to certain constraints, while the basic needs models are based on dynamic disequilibrium models. A major problem of the models is that technological progress is fundamentally exogenous; there is no intimate link between productivity and elevation of the educational level of the labor force. To avoid unmanageable complexity, households are reconstructed for each period on the basis of the demographic and economic data

  5. Economic and environmental assessment of syrup production. Colombian case.

    PubMed

    Dávila, Javier A; Hernández, Valentina; Castro, Eulogio; Cardona, Carlos A

    2014-06-01

    This work presents a techno-economic and environmental assessment of the glucose syrups production from sugarcane bagasse, plantain husk, cassava husk, mango peel, rice husk and corncobs. According to the economic analysis, the corncob had both, the lowest production cost (2.48USD/kg syrup) and the highest yield (0.61kgofsugars/kg of wet agroindustrial waste) due to its high content in cellulose and hemicellulose. This analysis also revealed that a heat integration strategy is necessary since the utilities consumption represent an important factor in the production cost. According to the results, the pretreatment section requires more energy in the syrup production in comparison with the requirements of other sections such as production and sugar concentration. The environmental assessment revealed that the solid wastes such as furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural affected the environmental development of the process for all the agroindustrial wastes, being the rice husk the residue with the lowest environmental impact. PMID:24686375

  6. Perspectives on the economic analysis of ethanol production from biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Prebluda, H.J.; Williams, R.

    1981-01-01

    The potential and economics of ethanol production from biomass is examined. Among the topics covered are: the Brazilian gasohol program; the effect of large scale conversion of grain to alcohol on U.S. food and animal feed prices; the Ex-Ferm process for fermenting sugar cane; the effect on cane sugar markets of the large-scale development in the U.S. of high fructose corn syrup; and better utilization of by-products. Significant breakthroughs which have recently taken place and which will improve the economic picture for making alcohol from solid waste are reviewed. (Refs. 26).

  7. Techno Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production by gasification of biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Francis Lau

    2002-12-01

    Biomass represents a large potential feedstock resource for environmentally clean processes that produce power or chemicals. It lends itself to both biological and thermal conversion processes and both options are currently being explored. Hydrogen can be produced in a variety of ways. The majority of the hydrogen produced in this country is produced through natural gas reforming and is used as chemical feedstock in refinery operations. In this report we will examine the production of hydrogen by gasification of biomass. Biomass is defined as organic matter that is available on a renewable basis through natural processes or as a by-product of processes that use renewable resources. The majority of biomass is used in combustion processes, in mills that use the renewable resources, to produce electricity for end-use product generation. This report will explore the use of hydrogen as a fuel derived from gasification of three candidate biomass feedstocks: bagasse, switchgrass, and a nutshell mix that consists of 40% almond nutshell, 40% almond prunings, and 20% walnut shell. In this report, an assessment of the technical and economic potential of producing hydrogen from biomass gasification is analyzed. The resource base was assessed to determine a process scale from feedstock costs and availability. Solids handling systems were researched. A GTI proprietary gasifier model was used in combination with a Hysys(reg. sign) design and simulation program to determine the amount of hydrogen that can be produced from each candidate biomass feed. Cost estimations were developed and government programs and incentives were analyzed. Finally, the barriers to the production and commercialization of hydrogen from biomass were determined. The end-use of the hydrogen produced from this system is small PEM fuel cells for automobiles. Pyrolysis of biomass was also considered. Pyrolysis is a reaction in which biomass or coal is partially vaporized by heating. Gasification is a more

  8. Process simulation and economical evaluation of enzymatic biodiesel production plant.

    PubMed

    Sotoft, Lene Fjerbaek; Rong, Ben-Guang; Christensen, Knud V; Norddahl, Birgir

    2010-07-01

    Process simulation and economical evaluation of an enzymatic biodiesel production plant has been carried out. Enzymatic biodiesel production from high quality rapeseed oil and methanol has been investigated for solvent free and cosolvent production processes. Several scenarios have been investigated with different production scales (8 and 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year) and enzyme price. The cosolvent production process is found to be most expensive and is not a viable choice, while the solvent free process is viable for the larger scale production of 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year with the current enzyme price. With the suggested enzyme price of the future, both the small and large scale solvent free production proved viable. The product price was estimated to be 0.73-1.49 euro/kg biodiesel with the current enzyme price and 0.05-0.75 euro/kg with the enzyme price of the future for solvent free process. PMID:20171880

  9. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  10. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; Carlsen, Brett W.

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuelmore » cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.« less

  11. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; Carlsen, Brett W.

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuel cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.

  12. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1985.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report presents the Economic Research Service's estimates of the costs of producing wheat, feed grains, cotton, and dairy commodities. It includes costs for other farm products that compete with the required commodities, namely rice, peanuts, soybeans, flax, sunflowers, fed cattle, hogs, sheep, and sugar. The report begins by assessing costs…

  13. A Technical and Economic Review of Solar Hydrogen Production Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilhelm, Erik; Fowler, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen energy systems are being developed to replace fossil fuels-based systems for transportation and stationary application. One of the challenges facing the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy vector is the lack of an efficient, economical, and sustainable method of hydrogen production. In the short term, hydrogen produced from…

  14. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1986.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report contains 121 tables that estimate the costs of production of various commodities on United States farms in 1986. The report first assesses costs and returns on a per-unit basis, such as one acre or one animal, under three sections of a budget: cash receipts, cash expenses, and economic costs. The budgets are based on national…

  15. Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS). A New Concept in Economic Forecasting for Defense Expenditures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blond, David L.

    The Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS) analyzes the economic effect of defense expenditures on the United States economy by using a consistent, reliable framework of economic models and government policy assumptions. Planning information on defense requirements is also provided to private sector firms. The DEIMS allows the Department…

  16. The economic viability of smallholder timber production under expanding açaí palm production in the Amazon Estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Douglas R. Carter

    2015-01-01

    Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallholder vertically integrated timber use to better understand the activity in the context of its primary land use alternative in the Amazon Estuary, açaí palm fruit production. We use data from landowner and firm surveys, participatory monitoring of firms, and detailed forest and sawmill operation monitoring to devise financial returns models of smallholder timber micro firms and açaí palm fruit production. We then compare the economics of the two activities to better understand how differences may shape decisions at the small holder scale that impact current land use shifts in the region.

  17. Integrated approach to economical, reliable, safe nuclear power production

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-06-01

    An Integrated Approach to Economical, Reliable, Safe Nuclear Power Production is the latest evolution of a concept which originated with the Defense-in-Depth philosophy of the nuclear industry. As Defense-in-Depth provided a framework for viewing physical barriers and equipment redundancy, the Integrated Approach gives a framework for viewing nuclear power production in terms of functions and institutions. In the Integrated Approach, four plant Goals are defined (Normal Operation, Core and Plant Protection, Containment Integrity and Emergency Preparedness) with the attendant Functional and Institutional Classifications that support them. The Integrated Approach provides a systematic perspective that combines the economic objective of reliable power production with the safety objective of consistent, controlled plant operation.

  18. Home Economics Education Career Path Guide and Model Curriculum Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Univ., Northridge.

    This curriculum guide developed in California and organized in 10 chapters, provides a home economics education career path guide and model curriculum standards for high school home economics programs. The first chapter contains information on the following: home economics education in California, home economics careers for the future, home…

  19. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  20. Switchgrass biomass to ethanol production economics: Field to fuel approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haque, Mohua

    Scope and Method of Study. Switchgrass has been proposed as a dedicated energy crop. The first essay determines switchgrass yield response to nitrogen fertilizer for a single annual harvest in July and for a single annual harvest in October based on a field experiments conducted at Stillwater, OK. Data were fitted to several functional forms to characterize both the July harvest and the October harvest response functions. Extending the harvest window to take advantage of reduction in harvest machinery investment costs has important biological consequences. The second essay determines the cost to deliver a ton of switchgrass biomass to a 2,000 tons per day plant located in Oklahoma. The model accounts for differences in yield and nitrogen fertilizer requirements across harvest months. The data were incorporated into a multi-region, multi-period, monthly time-step, mixed integer mathematical programming model that was constructed to determine the optimal strategy. Desirable feedstock properties, biomass to biofuel conversion rate, and investment required in plant differs depending on which conversion technology is used. The third essay determines the breakeven ethanol price for a cellulosic biorefinery. A comprehensive mathematical programming model that encompasses the chain from land acquisition to ethanol production was constructed and solved. Findings and Conclusions. The July and October harvest plateau yield of 4.36 and 5.49 tons per acre were achieved with an estimated annual nitrogen fertilizer application of 80 and 63 pounds per acre, respectively. Farm gate production costs were estimated to be 60 per ton for the July harvest and 50 per ton for the October harvest. Based on the model results, the strategy of extending harvest over many months is economically preferable to a strategy of harvesting only in peak yield harvest months. Restricting harvest to a two-month harvest season would increase the cost to deliver feedstock by 23 percent. For a capital

  1. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. II: economic values incorporating risks in different smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

    2015-02-01

    This study estimated economic values for production traits (dressing percentage (DP), %; live weight for growers (LWg), kg; live weight for sows (LWs), kg) and functional traits (feed intake for growers (FEEDg), feed intake for sow (FEEDs), preweaning survival rate (PrSR), %; postweaning survival (PoSR), %; sow survival rate (SoSR), %, total number of piglets born (TNB) and farrowing interval (FI), days) under different smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Economic values were estimated considering two production circumstances: fixed-herd and fixed-feed. Under the fixed-herd scenario, economic values were estimated assuming a situation where the herd cannot be increased due to other constraints apart from feed resources. The fixed-feed input scenario assumed that the herd size is restricted by limitation of feed resources available. In addition to the tradition profit model, a risk-rated bio-economic model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Under the fixed-feed basis, the risk-rated economic values for DP, LWg, LWs and SoSR were similar to those obtained under the fixed-herd situation. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50 % in all the production systems and basis of evaluation meaning there would be relatively little effect on the real genetic gain of a selection index. Therefore, both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used to predict profitability in pig breeding programmes. PMID:25433647

  2. An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

    1989-01-01

    A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

  3. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  4. The nutrition intervention improved adult human capital and economic productivity.

    PubMed

    Martorell, Reynaldo; Melgar, Paul; Maluccio, John A; Stein, Aryeh D; Rivera, Juan A

    2010-02-01

    This article reviews key findings about the long-term impact of a nutrition intervention carried out by the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama from 1969 to 1977. Results from follow-up studies in 1988-89 and 2002-04 show substantial impact on adult human capital and economic productivity. The 1988-89 study showed that adult body size and work capacity increased for those provided improved nutrition through age 3 y, whereas the 2002-04 follow-up showed that schooling was increased for women and reading comprehension and intelligence increased in both men and women. Participants were 26-42 y of age at the time of the 2002-04 follow-up, facilitating the assessment of economic productivity. Wages of men increased by 46% in those provided with improved nutrition through age 2 y. Findings for cardiovascular disease risk factors were heterogeneous; however, they suggest that improved nutrition in early life is unlikely to increase cardiovascular disease risk later in life and may indeed lower risk. In conclusion, the substantial improvement in adult human capital and economic productivity resulting from the nutrition intervention provides a powerful argument for promoting improvements in nutrition in pregnant women and young children. PMID:20032473

  5. SRWC bioenergy productivity and economic feasibility on marginal lands.

    PubMed

    Ghezehei, Solomon B; Shifflett, Shawn D; Hazel, Dennis W; Nichols, Elizabeth Guthrie

    2015-09-01

    Evolving bioenergy markets necessitate consideration of marginal lands for woody biomass production worldwide particularly the southeastern U.S., a prominent wood pellet exporter to Europe. Growing short rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on marginal lands minimizes concerns about using croplands for bioenergy production and reinforces sustainability of wood supply to existing and growing global biomass markets. We estimated mean annual aboveground green biomass increments (MAIs) and assessed economic feasibility of various operationally established (0.5 ha-109 ha) SRWC stands on lands used to mitigate environmental liabilities of municipal wastewater, livestock wastewater and sludge, and subsurface contamination by petroleum and pesticides. MAIs (Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) had no consistent relationship with stand density or age. Non-irrigated Populus, Plantanus occidentalis L. and Pinus taeda L. stands produced 2.4-12.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1). Older, irrigated Taxodium distchum L., Fraxinus pennsylvanica L., and coppiced P. occidentalis stands had higher MAIs (10.6-21.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) than irrigated Liquidambar styraciflua L. and non-coppiced, irrigated P. occidentalis (8-18 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Natural hardwood MAIs at 20-60 years were less than hardwood and P. taeda productivities at 5-20 years. Unlike weed control, irrigation and coppicing improved managed hardwood productivity. Rotation length affected economic outcomes although the returns were poor due to high establishment and maintenance costs, low productivities and low current stumpage values, which are expected to quickly change with development of robust global markets. PMID:26087365

  6. Upstream and downstream strategies to economize biodiesel production.

    PubMed

    Hasheminejad, Meisam; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Mansourpanah, Yaghoub; Khatami far, Mahdi; Javani, Azita

    2011-01-01

    In recent years biodiesel has drawn considerable amount of attention as a clean and renewable fuel. Biodiesel is produced from renewable sources such as vegetable oils and animal fat mainly through catalytic or non-catalytic transesterification method as well as supercritical method. However, as a consequence of disadvantages of these methods, the production cost increases dramatically. This article summarizes different biodiesel production methods with a focus on their advantages and disadvantages. The downstream and upstream strategies such as using waste cooking oils, application of non-edible plant oils, plant genetic engineering, using membrane separation technology for biodiesel production, separation and purification, application of crude glycerin as an energy supplement for ruminants, glycerin ultra-purification and their consequent roles in economizing the production process are fully discussed in this article. PMID:20974530

  7. Energy/economic model analysis. Livermore energy policy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, R. B.

    1980-06-01

    The results of a study done by the Energy and Resources Planning Group of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) for the Gas Research Institute (GRI) using the LLL Economic Modeling System (EMS) are described. The purpose was to allow GRl to evaluate the appropriateness of their continued use of an energy model and, at the same time, for them to gain a better understanding of the consequences of current or proposed GRI supported research and development.

  8. Impact of production strategies and animal performance on economic values of dairy sheep traits.

    PubMed

    Krupová, Z; Wolfová, M; Krupa, E; Oravcová, M; Daňo, J; Huba, J; Polák, P

    2012-03-01

    The objective of this study was to carry out a sensitivity analysis on the impact of various production strategies and performance levels on the relative economic values (REVs) of traits in dairy sheep. A bio-economic model implemented in the program package ECOWEIGHT was used to simulate the profit function for a semi-extensive production system with the Slovak multi-purpose breed Improved Valachian and to calculate the REV of 14 production and functional traits. The following production strategies were analysed: differing proportions of milk processed to cheese, customary weaning and early weaning of lambs with immediate sale or sale after artificial rearing, seasonal lambing in winter and aseasonal lambing in autumn. Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in detail for the four economically most important traits: 150 days milk yield, conception rate of ewes, litter size and ewe productive lifetime. Impacts of the differences in the mean value of each of these four traits on REVs of all other traits were also examined. Simulated changes in the production circumstances had a higher impact on the REV for milk yield than on REVs of the other traits investigated. The proportion of milk processed to cheese, weaning management strategy for lambs and level of milk yield were the main factors influencing the REV of milk yield. The REVs for conception rate of ewes were highly sensitive to the current mean level of the trait. The REV of ewe productive lifetime was most sensitive to variation in ewe conception rate, and the REV of litter size was most affected by weaning strategy for lambs. On the basis of the results of sensitivity analyses, it is recommended that economic values of traits for the overall breeding objective for dairy sheep be calculated as the weighted average of the economic values obtained for the most common production strategies of Slovak dairy sheep farms and that economic values be adjusted after substantial changes in performance levels

  9. The economic prospects of cellulosic biomass for biofuel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumarappan, Subbu

    competitive with existing crops, and additional subsidy support would be required. Among the states in the eastern half of US, the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia are found to be economically more suitable to cultivate perennial energy crops. The third paper estimates the optimal feedstock composition of annual and perennial feedstocks from a biorefinery's perspective. The objective function of the optimization model is to minimize the cumulative costs covering harvesting, transport, storage, and GHG costs, of biomass procurement over a biorefinery's productive period of 20 years subject to various constraints on land availability, feedstock availability, processing capacity, contracting needs and storage. The results suggest that the economic tradeoff is between higher production costs for dedicated energy crops and higher collection and transport costs for agricultural residues; the delivered costs of biomass drives the results. These tradeoffs are reflected in optimal spatial planting pattern as preferred by the biorefinery: energy crops are grown in fields closer to the biorefinery and agricultural residues can be sourced from fields farther away from the biorefinery. The optimization model also provides useful insights into the price premiums paid for annual and perennial feedstocks. For the parameters used in the case study, the energy crop price premium ranges from 2 to 8 per ton for fields located within a 10 mile radius. For agricultural residues, the price premiums range from 5 to 16 per ton within a 10-20 mile radius.

  10. An integrated hydrological, ecological, and economical (HEE) modeling system for assessing water resources and ecosystem production: calibration and validation in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xianglian; Yang, Xiusheng; Gao, Wei

    2006-08-01

    Effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas demands studies that cross over the disciplinaries of natural and social sciences. An integrated Hydrological, Ecological and Economical (HEE) modeling system at regional scale has been developed to assess water resources use and ecosystem production in arid and semi-arid areas. As a physically-based distributed modeling system, the HEE modeling system requires various input parameters including those for soil, vegetation, topography, groundwater, and water and agricultural management at different spatial levels. A successful implementation of the modeling system highly depends on how well it is calibrated. This paper presented an automatic calibration procedure for the HEE modeling system and its test in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin. Previous to calibration, comprehensive literature investigation and sensitivity analysis were performed to identify important parameters for calibration. The automatic calibration procedure was base on conventional Monte Carlo sampling method together with a multi-objective criterion for calibration over multi-site and multi-output. The multi-objective function consisted of optimizing statistics of mean absolute relative error (MARE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E NS), and coefficient of determination (R2). The modeling system was calibrated against streamflow and harvest yield data from multiple sites/provinces within the basin over 2001 by using the proposed automatic procedure, and validated over 1993-1995. Over the calibration period, the mean absolute relative error of simulated daily streamflow was within 7% while the statistics R2 and E NS of daily streamflow were 0.61 and 0.49 respectively. Average simulated harvest yield over the calibration period was about 9.2% less than that of observations. Overall calibration results have indicated that the calibration procedures developed in this study can efficiently calibrate

  11. Technology and economic assessment of lactic acid production and uses

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, R.; Tsai, S.P.

    1996-03-01

    Lactic acid has been an intermediate-volume specialty chemical (world production {approximately}50,000 tons/yr) used in a wide range of food-processing and industrial applications. Potentially, it can become a very large-volume, commodity-chemical intermediate produced from carbohydrates for feedstocks of biodegradable polymers, oxygenated chemicals, environmentally friendly ``green`` solvents, and other intermediates. In the past, efficient and economical technologies for the recovery and purification of lactic acid from fermentation broths and its conversion to the chemical or polymer intermediates had been the key technology impediments and main process cost centers. Development and deployment of novel separations technologies, such as electrodialysis with bipolar membranes, extractive and catalytic distillations, and chemical conversion, can enable low-cost production with continuous processes in large-scale operations. The emerging technologies can use environmentally sound lactic acid processes to produce environmentally useful products, with attractive process economics. These technology advances and recent product and process commercialization strategies are reviewed and assessed.

  12. Advanced Production Planning Models

    SciTech Connect

    JONES,DEAN A.; LAWTON,CRAIG R.; KJELDGAARD,EDWIN A.; WRIGHT,STEPHEN TROY; TURNQUIST,MARK A.; NOZICK,LINDA K.; LIST,GEORGE F.

    2000-12-01

    >This report describes the innovative modeling approach developed as a result of a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project. The overall goal of this project was to provide an effective suite of solvers for advanced production planning at facilities in the nuclear weapons complex (NWC). We focused our development activities on problems related to operations at the DOE's Pantex Plant. These types of scheduling problems appear in many contexts other than Pantex--both within the NWC (e.g., Neutron Generators) and in other commercial manufacturing settings. We successfully developed an innovative and effective solution strategy for these types of problems. We have tested this approach on actual data from Pantex, and from Org. 14000 (Neutron Generator production). This report focuses on the mathematical representation of the modeling approach and presents three representative studies using Pantex data. Results associated with the Neutron Generator facility will be published in a subsequent SAND report. The approach to task-based scheduling described here represents a significant addition to the literature for large-scale, realistic scheduling problems in a variety of production settings.

  13. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  14. ECONOMIC MODELLING OF WATER SUPPLY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPRODUCT FIRM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research was conducted to develop a comprehensive economic model that could use the neoclassical theory of the multiproduct firm to analyze the production structure of water supply. The project attempts to meet the need for in-depth analysis of the cost and economic structure of ...

  15. Economic requirements for competitive laser fusion power production

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, W.J.; Meier, W.R.

    1985-11-15

    An economic model of a laser fusion commercial power plant is used to identify the design and operating regimes of the driver, target and reaction chamber that will result in economic competitiveness with future fission and coal plants. We find that, for a plant with a net power of 1 GW/sub e/, the cost of the driver must be less than $0.4 to 0.6 B, and the recirculating power fraction must be less than 25%. Target gain improvements at low driver energy are the most beneficial but also the most difficult to achieve. The optimal driver energy decreases with increasing target technology. The sensitivity of the cost of electricity to variations in cost and performance parameters decreases with increasing target technology. If chamber pulse rates of a few Hz can be achieved, then gains of 80 to 100 will be sufficient, and higher pulse rates do not help much. Economic competitiveness becomes more difficult with decreasing plant size. Finally, decreasing the cost of the balance of plant has the greatest beneficial effect on economic competitiveness. 6 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Total economic value of wetlands products and services in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person⁻¹. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year⁻¹, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year⁻¹, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹ and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

  17. Total Economic Value of Wetlands Products and Services in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person−1. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year−1, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year−1, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare−1 year−1 and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare−1 year−1. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

  18. An Economic Model of Interpersonal Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cissna, Linda Surbaugh; Cissna, Kenneth N.

    A Marxian economic analysis of interpersonal communication within a capitalist system finds that capitalism, with its attendant stress on wholly economic values, produces a commodity-oriented society. Mass media advertising is the primary vehicle through which the capitalist culture indoctrinates the ideas of competition for the intangibles (love,…

  19. Economic realities of coal combustion by-product utilization

    SciTech Connect

    Colmar, J.A.

    1997-09-01

    The purpose of this paper is to highlight the economic issues associated with coal combustion by-product (CCB) utilization and to discuss both technical and cost considerations of commercialization. Handling, processing, and distribution aspects as well as geographic location and competing materials will affect utilization. Several case studies including fly ash in rick, FGD gypsum vs. mined gypsum, and bottom ash vs. lightweight aggregate are presented detailing these issues. Understanding these factors will provide insight to evaluating barriers for CCB utilization which is the first step toward high volume CCB utilization.

  20. Essays on Applied Resource Economics Using Bioeconomic Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Affuso, Ermanno

    With rising demographic growth, there is increasing interest in analytical studies that assess alternative policies to provide an optimal allocation of scarce natural resources while ensuring environmental sustainability. This dissertation consists of three essays in applied resource economics that are interconnected methodologically within the agricultural production sector of Economics. The first chapter examines the sustainability of biofuels by simulating and evaluating an agricultural voluntary program that aims to increase the land use efficiency in the production of biofuels of first generation in the state of Alabama. The results show that participatory decisions may increase the net energy value of biofuels by 208% and reduce emissions by 26%; significantly contributing to the state energy goals. The second chapter tests the hypothesis of overuse of fertilizers and pesticides in U.S. peanut farming with respect to other inputs and address genetic research to reduce the use of the most overused chemical input. The findings suggest that peanut producers overuse fungicide with respect to any other input and that fungi resistant genetically engineered peanuts may increase the producer welfare up to 36.2%. The third chapter implements a bioeconomic model, which consists of a biophysical model and a stochastic dynamic recursive model that is used to measure potential economic and environmental welfare of cotton farmers derived from a rotation scheme that uses peanut as a complementary crop. The results show that the rotation scenario would lower farming costs by 14% due to nitrogen credits from prior peanut land use and reduce non-point source pollution from nitrogen runoff by 6.13% compared to continuous cotton farming.

  1. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  2. Production Planning Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-04-20

    PRODMOD is an integrated computational tool for performing dynamic simulation and optimization for the entire high level waste complex at the Savannah River Site (SRS) It is being used at SRS for planning purposes so that all waste can be processed efficiently. The computational tool 1) optimizes waste blending sequences, 2) minimizes waste volume production, 3) reduces waste processing time, 4) provides better process control and understanding, and 5) assists strategic planning, scheduling, and costmore » estimation. PRODMOD has been developed using Aspen Technology''s software development package SPEEDUP. PRODMOD models all the key HLW processing operations at SRS: storage and evaporation: saltcake production and dissolution: filtration (dewatering): precipitation: sludge and precipitate washing: glass, grout, and organics production. Innovative approaches have been used in making PRODMOD a very fast computational tool. These innovative approaches are 1) constructing a dynamic problem as a steady state problem 2) mapping between event-space (batch processes) and time-space (dynamic processes) without sacrificing the details in the batch process. The dynamic nature of the problem is constructed in linear form where time dependence is implicit. The linear constructs and mapping algorithms have made it possible to devise a general purpose optimization scheme which couples the optimization driver with the PRODMOD simulator. The optimization scheme is capable of generating single or multiple optimal input conditions for different types of objective functions over single or multiple years of operations depending on the nature of the objective function and operating constraints.« less

  3. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE) model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP) estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation) as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS) in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of the TE model predictions

  4. Economic evaluation of United States ethanol production from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Youn-Sang

    This paper evaluates the economic feasibility and economy-wide impacts of the U. S. ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (LCF) using Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA's) dilute acid hydrolysis process. A nonlinear mathematical programming model of a single ethanol producer, whose objective is profit maximization, is developed. Because of differences in their chemical composition and production process, lignocellulosic feedstocks are divided into two groups: Biomass feedstocks, which refer to crop residues, energy crops and woody biomass, and municipal solid waste (MSW). Biomass feedstocks are more productive and less costly in producing ethanol and co-products, while MSW generates an additional income to the producer from a tipping fee and recycling. The analysis suggests that, regardless of types of feedstocks used, TVA's conversion process can enhance the economic viability of ethanol production as long as furfural is produced from the hemicellulose fraction of feedstocks as a co-product. The high price of furfural makes it a major factor in determining the economic feasibility of ethanol production. Along with evaluating economic feasibility of LCF-to-ethanol production, the optimal size of a plant producing ethanol using TVA's conversion process is estimated. The larger plant would have the advantage of economies of scale, but also have a disadvantage of increased collection and transportation costs for bulky biomass from more distant locations. We assume that the plant is located in the state of Missouri and utilizes only feedstocks produced in the state. The results indicate that the size of a plant using Biomass feedstocks is much bigger than one using MSW. The difference of plant sizes results from plant location and feedstock availability. One interesting finding is that energy crops are not feasible feedstocks for LCF-to-ethanol production due to their high price. Next, a static CGE model is developed to estimate the U.S. economy

  5. Economical Recovery of By-products in the Mining Industry

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, J.B.

    2001-12-05

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Industrial Technologies, Mining Industry of the Future Program, works with the mining industry to further the industry's advances toward environmental and economic goals. Two of these goals are (1) responsible emission and by-product management and (2) low-cost and efficient production (DOE 1998). DOE formed an alliance with the National Mining Association (NMA) to strengthen the basis for research projects conducted to benefit the mining industry. NMA and industry representatives actively participate in this alliance by evaluating project proposals and by recommending research project selection to DOE. Similarly, the National Research Council (NRC) has recently and independently recommended research and technology development opportunities in the mining industry (NRC 2001). The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Colorado School of Mines engineers conducted one such project for DOE regarding by -product recovery from mining process residue. The results of this project include this report on mining industry process residue and waste with opportunity for by-product recovery. The U.S. mineral processing industry produces over 30,000,000 metric tons per year of process residue and waste that may contain hazardous species as well as valuable by-products. This study evaluates the copper, lead, and zinc commodity sectors which generate between 23,300,000 and 24,000,000 metric tons per year. The distribution of residual elements in process residues and wastes varies over wide ranges* because of variations in the original ore content as it is extracted from the earth's crust. In the earth's crust, the elements of interest to mining fall into two general geochemical classifications, lithophiles and chalcophiles** (Cox 1997). Groups of elements are almost always present together in a given geochemical classification, but the relative amounts of each element are unique to a particular ore body. This paper generally describes

  6. A recursive model of economic well-being in retirement.

    PubMed

    Leon, J

    1985-07-01

    Although investigators have identified some of the social and economic forces that influence levels of economic resources among elderly adults, little has been done to organize these factors into predictive lifespan models of economic well-being. Applying path analysis to data on retiring workers from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the present research offers a beginning recursive model. It traces the influences of demographic/family background, human capital, and work-related characteristics on economic position in retirement. Controlling for differences in labor force participation and other human capital measures, race and family background lose their direct significance, whereas sex remains directly significant in predicting economic resource levels for recently retired workers. In addition, the model estimates the direct and indirect effects played by industrial sector location and social class position. In total the structurally based capital attainment model explains 65% of the variance in a measure of economic well-being that includes retirement income and wealth. PMID:4008884

  7. Metropolitan and state economic regions (MASTER) model - overview

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, R.C.; Moe, R.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1983-05-01

    The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is a unique multi-regional economic model designed to forecast regional economic activity and assess the regional economic impacts caused by national and regional economic changes (e.g., interest rate fluctuations, energy price changes, construction and operation of a nuclear waste storage facility, shutdown of major industrial operations). MASTER can be applied to any or all of the 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA rest-of-state-areas (ROSAs) in the continental US. The model can also be applied to any or all of the continental US counties and states. This report is divided into four sections: capabilities and applications of the MASTER model, development of the model, model simulation, and validation testing.

  8. Assessing the Economic Viability of Bio-based Products for Missouri Value-added Crop Production

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes

    2005-11-30

    While research and development on biobased products has continued strong over the years, parallel attention on the economics and management of such product innovation has been lacking. With the financial support of the Department of Energy, the Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Center at the University of Missouri-Columbia has launched a pilot graduate education program that seeks to fill the gap. Within this context, a multi-disciplinary research and teaching program has been structured with an emphasis on new product and innovation economics and management. More specifically, this pilot graduate education program has the following major objectives: (1) To provide students with a strong background in innovation economics, management, and strategy. (2) To diversify the students academic background with coursework in science and technology. (3) To familiarize the student with biobased policy initiatives through interaction with state and national level organizations and policymakers. (4) To facilitate active collaboration with industry involved in the development and production of biobased products. The pilot education program seeks to develop human capital and research output. Although the research is, initially, focused on issues related to the State of Missouri, the results are expected to have national implications for the economy, producers, consumers and environment.

  9. An economic order quantity model with shortage and inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wulan, Elis Ratna; Nurjaman, Wildan

    2015-09-01

    The effect of inflation has become a persistent characteristic and more significant problem of many developing economies especially in the third world countries. While making effort to achieve optimal quantity of product to be produced or purchased using the simplest and on the shelf classical EOQ model, the non-inclusion of conflicting economic realities as shortage and inflation has rendered its result quite uneconomical and hence the purpose for this study. Mathematical expression was developed for each of the cost components the sum of which become the total inventory model over the period (0,L) ((TIC(0,L)). L is planning horizon and TIC(0,L) is total inventory cost over a period of (0,L). Significant savings with increase in quantity was achieved based on deference in the varying price regime. With the assumptions considered and subject to the availability of reliable inventory cost element, the developed model is found to produce a feasible, and economic inventory stock-level with the numerical example of a material supply of a manufacturing company.

  10. TOWARD EFFICIENT RIPARIAN RESTORATION: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to determine the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts for water quality protection and salmonid habitat enhancement in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. The integrated modeling system co...

  11. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  12. Stokes integral of economic growth. Calculus and the Solow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimkes, Jürgen

    2010-04-01

    Economic growth depends on capital and labor and two-dimensional calculus has been applied to economic theory. This leads to Riemann and Stokes integrals and to the first and second laws of production and growth. The mathematical structure is the same as in thermodynamics, economic properties may be related to physical terms: capital to energy, production to physical work, GDP per capita to temperature, production function to entropy. This is called econophysics. Production, trade and banking may be compared to motors, heat pumps or refrigerators. The Carnot process of the first law creates two levels in each system: cold and hot in physics; buyer and seller, investor and saver, rich and poor in economics. The efficiency rises with the income difference of rich and poor. The results of econophysics are compared to neoclassical theory.

  13. Scale-up and economic analysis of biodiesel production from municipal primary sewage sludge.

    PubMed

    Olkiewicz, Magdalena; Torres, Carmen M; Jiménez, Laureano; Font, Josep; Bengoa, Christophe

    2016-08-01

    Municipal wastewater sludge is a promising lipid feedstock for biodiesel production, but the need to eliminate the high water content before lipid extraction is the main limitation for scaling up. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of biodiesel production directly from liquid primary sludge based on experimental data at laboratory scale. Computational tools were used for the modelling of the process scale-up and the different configurations of lipid extraction to optimise this step, as it is the most expensive. The operational variables with a major influence in the cost were the extraction time and the amount of solvent. The optimised extraction process had a break-even price of biodiesel of 1232 $/t, being economically competitive with the current cost of fossil diesel. The proposed biodiesel production process from waste sludge eliminates the expensive step of sludge drying, lowering the biodiesel price. PMID:27131292

  14. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Proper crop rotation is essential to maintaining high peanut yield and quality. However, the economic considerations of maintaining or altering crop rotation sequences must incorporate the commodity prices, production costs, and yield responses of all crops in, or potentially in, the crop rotation ...

  15. Black liquor fractionation for biofuels production - a techno-economic assessment.

    PubMed

    Mesfun, Sennai; Lundgren, Joakim; Grip, Carl-Erik; Toffolo, Andrea; Nilsson, Rasika Lasanthi Kudahettige; Rova, Ulrika

    2014-08-01

    The hemicelluloses fraction of black liquor is an underutilized resource in many chemical pulp mills. It is possible to extract and separate the lignin and hemicelluloses from the black liquor and use the hemicelluloses for biochemical conversion into biofuels and chemicals. Precipitation of the lignin from the black liquor would consequently decrease the thermal load on the recovery boiler, which is often referred to as a bottleneck for increased pulp production. The objective of this work is to techno-economically evaluate the production of sodium-free lignin as a solid fuel and butanol to be used as fossil gasoline replacement by fractionating black liquor. The hydrolysis and fermentation processes are modeled in Aspen Plus to analyze energy and material balances as well as to evaluate the plant economics. A mathematical model of an existing pulp and paper mill is used to analyze the effects on the energy performance of the mill subprocesses. PMID:24950095

  16. Supercritical biodiesel production and power cogeneration: technical and economic feasibilities.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, A; Anitescu, G; Rice, P A; Tavlarides, L L

    2010-03-01

    An integrated supercritical fluid technology with power cogeneration to produce biodiesel fuels, with no need for the costly separations involved with the conventional technology, is proposed, documented for technical and economic feasibility, and preliminarily designed. The core of the integrated system consists of the transesterification of various triglyceride sources (e.g., vegetable oils and animal fats) with supercritical methanol/ethanol. Part of the reaction products can be combusted by a diesel power generator integrated in the system which, in turn, provides the power needed to pressurize the system and the heat of the exhaust gases necessary in the transesterification step. The latter energy demand can also be satisfied by a fired heater, especially for higher plant capacities. Different versions of this system can be implemented based on the main target of the technology: biodiesel production or diesel engine applications, including power generation. The process options considered for biodiesel fuel production estimate break-even processing costs of biodiesel as low as $0.26/gal ($0.07/L) with a diesel power generator and $0.35/gal ($0.09/L) with a fired heater for a plant capacity of 15,000 gal/day (56,775 L/day). Both are significantly lower than the current processing costs of approximately $0.51/gal ($0.13/L) of biodiesel produced by conventional catalytic methods. A retail cost of biodiesel produced by the proposed method is likely to be competitive with the prices of diesel fuels. PMID:19939671

  17. Economical succinic acid production from cane molasses by Actinobacillus succinogenes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu-Peng; Zheng, Pu; Sun, Zhi-Hao; Ni, Ye; Dong, Jin-Jun; Zhu, Lei-Lei

    2008-04-01

    In this work, production of succinic acid by Actinobacillus succinogenes CGMCC1593 using cane molasses as a low cost carbon source was developed. In anaerobic bottles fermentation, succinic acid concentration of 50.6+/-0.9 g l(-1) was attained at 60 h using an optimum medium containing molasses pretreated with sulfuric acid, resulting in a succinic acid yield of 79.5+/-1.1% and sugar utilization of 97.1+/-0.6%. When batch fermentation was carried out in a 5-l stirred bioreactor with pretreated molasses, 46.4 g l(-1) of succinic acid was attained at 48 h and faster cells growth was also observed. Fed batch fermentation was performed to minimize the substrate (sugar) inhibition effect, giving 55.2 g l(-1) of succinic acid and 1.15 g l(-1)h(-1) of productivity at 48 h. The present study suggests that the inexpensive cane molasses could be utilized for the economical and efficient production of succinic acid by A. succinogenes. PMID:17532626

  18. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  19. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  20. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    SciTech Connect

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  1. Empirical Analysis and Modeling of the Global Economic System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Wen-Qi; Sun, Bo-Liang

    2009-09-01

    In the global economic system, each economy stimulates the growth of its gross domestic products (GDP) by increasing its international trade. Using a fluctuation analysis of the flux data of GDP and foreign trade, we find that both GDP and foreign trade are dominated by external force and driven by each other. By excluding the impact of the associated trade dependency degree, GDP and the total volume of foreign trade collapse well into a power-law function. The economy's total trade volume scales with the number of trade partners, and it is distributed among its trade partners in an exponential form. The model which incorporated these empirical results can integrate the growth dynamics of GDP and the interplay dynamics between GDP and weighted international trade networks simultaneously.

  2. Crop productivity and economics during the transition to alternative cropping systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing economic pressures and continued environmental concerns in agricultural production have heightened the need for more sustainable cropping systems. Research is needed to identify systems that simultaneously improve the economic and social viability of farms and rural communities while prot...

  3. The Production, Consumption and Distribution of Economic Podcasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swan, Kathy; Hofer, Mark; Swan, Gerry; Mazur, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Podcasting remains one of the hot "buzz words" in technology today--both in and out of schools. For high school economics teachers, there is a growing number of podcasts targeted for instruction on economics. While the podcasts can be useful resources for teachers trying to enhance students' economic thinking, they are not produced specifically…

  4. Hydro-economic Modeling: Reducing the Gap between Large Scale Simulation and Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forni, L.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Purkey, D.; Joyce, B. A.; Sieber, J.; Howitt, R.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of hydrological and socio economic components into hydro-economic models has become essential for water resources policy and planning analysis. In this study we integrate the economic value of water in irrigated agricultural production using SWAP (a StateWide Agricultural Production Model for California), and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) a climate driven hydrological model. The integration of the models is performed using a step function approximation of water demand curves from SWAP, and by relating the demand tranches to the priority scheme in WEAP. In order to do so, a modified version of SWAP was developed called SWEAP that has the Planning Area delimitations of WEAP, a Maximum Entropy Model to estimate evenly sized steps (tranches) of water derived demand functions, and the translation of water tranches into crop land. In addition, a modified version of WEAP was created called ECONWEAP with minor structural changes for the incorporation of land decisions from SWEAP and series of iterations run via an external VBA script. This paper shows the validity of this integration by comparing revenues from WEAP vs. ECONWEAP as well as an assessment of the approximation of tranches. Results show a significant increase in the resulting agricultural revenues for our case study in California's Central Valley using ECONWEAP while maintaining the same hydrology and regional water flows. These results highlight the gains from allocating water based on its economic compared to priority-based water allocation systems. Furthermore, this work shows the potential of integrating optimization and simulation-based hydrologic models like ECONWEAP.ercentage difference in total agricultural revenues (EconWEAP versus WEAP).

  5. The Changing Economic Model of Scholarly Publishing: Uncertainty, Complexity and Multi-media Serials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John

    1998-01-01

    Discusses scholarly publishing, comparing traditional, 80s, and present models of scholarly publishing; outlines economic factors characterizing the models: costs of production, subscription decline, numbers of articles published, editorial expenses and fees, office expenses, pressure for profit, start-up costs of new journals; and describes how…

  6. A physical and economic model of the nuclear fuel cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Erich Alfred

    A model of the nuclear fuel cycle that is suitable for use in strategic planning and economic forecasting is presented. The model, to be made available as a stand-alone software package, requires only a small set of fuel cycle and reactor specific input parameters. Critical design criteria include ease of use by nonspecialists, suppression of errors to within a range dictated by unit cost uncertainties, and limitation of runtime to under one minute on a typical desktop computer. Collision probability approximations to the neutron transport equation that lead to a computationally efficient decoupling of the spatial and energy variables are presented and implemented. The energy dependent flux, governed by coupled integral equations, is treated by multigroup or continuous thermalization methods. The model's output includes a comprehensive nuclear materials flowchart that begins with ore requirements, calculates the buildup of 24 actinides as well as fission products, and concludes with spent fuel or reprocessed material composition. The costs, direct and hidden, of the fuel cycle under study are also computed. In addition to direct disposal and plutonium recycling strategies in current use, the model addresses hypothetical cycles. These include cycles chosen for minor actinide burning and for their low weapons-usable content.

  7. Preliminary Economics for the Production of Pyrolysis Oil from Lignin in a Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefinery

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Susanne B.; Zhu, Yunhua

    2009-04-01

    price of $1.33 for the 2012 goal case process as reported in the 2007 State of Technology Model (NREL 2008). Hence, pyrolysis oil does not appear to be an economically attractive product in this scenario. Further research regarding fast pyrolysis of raw lignin from a cellulosic plant as an end product is not recommended. Other processes, such as high-pressure liquefaction or wet gasification, and higher value products, such as gasoline and diesel from fast pyrolysis oil should be considered in future studies.

  8. Optimal rate of oil production and economic development: the case of Kuwait

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Ebraheem, Y.H.

    1984-01-01

    This dissertation utilizes the optimal control technique to establish a national economic planning model through which Kuwait's oil extraction policy is determined with relation to the structure of its economy as well as the welfare of the nation. This has been advanced through two steps: 1) by building a macroeconomic model, which is used as a constraint on the planning model, to describe the economic structure of Kuwaiti economy; and 2) by constructing a welfare objective function to measure the preference of the policy makers along the planning period. A dynamic programming method is applied to solve for the optimal levels of the target and policy variables. The optimal levels of oil production that would finance the optimal levels of the policy variables are determined, using a basic government expenditure-revenue inequality. To determine these levels of oil revenue and, hence, these levels of oil production, different oil price scenarios are applied. This study obtains a satisfactory result and concludes that the optimal control technique is a feasible tool to be used for economic planning for the Kuwaiti economy.

  9. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    levels that are not optimal in the sense that they do not maximize social welfare. More generally, economic analysis has the potential to explain current investment and snow production levels and to determine optimal ones. It can also predict the evolution of these levels under a warmer climate. For instance, such predictions were carried out for Switzerland as well as for other Alpine countries using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with a time horizon up to 2050, the GEMINI-E3 model. With all these points in mind, this presentation aims at reviewing what has been done so far on the economic aspects of artificial snow production and also at identifying avenues for future research.

  10. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    S. Hendrickson; S.Tegen

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local(usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels,concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants.

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. A Home Production Activity Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beutler, Ivan F.; Owen, Alma J.

    1980-01-01

    The family is examined as a focal unit of production and a home production activity model is developed. An interdisciplinary approach is used which puts the broad range of family activities on a continuum from production to consumption. (Author/SK)

  13. Economic evaluation in chronic pain: a systematic review and de novo flexible economic model.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, W; Hirst, M; Beard, S; Gladwell, D; Fagnani, F; López Bastida, J; Phillips, C; Dunlop, W C N

    2016-07-01

    There is unmet need in patients suffering from chronic pain, yet innovation may be impeded by the difficulty of justifying economic value in a field beset by data limitations and methodological variability. A systematic review was conducted to identify and summarise the key areas of variability and limitations in modelling approaches in the economic evaluation of treatments for chronic pain. The results of the literature review were then used to support the development of a fully flexible open-source economic model structure, designed to test structural and data assumptions and act as a reference for future modelling practice. The key model design themes identified from the systematic review included: time horizon; titration and stabilisation; number of treatment lines; choice/ordering of treatment; and the impact of parameter uncertainty (given reliance on expert opinion). Exploratory analyses using the model to compare a hypothetical novel therapy versus morphine as first-line treatments showed cost-effectiveness results to be sensitive to structural and data assumptions. Assumptions about the treatment pathway and choice of time horizon were key model drivers. Our results suggest structural model design and data assumptions may have driven previous cost-effectiveness results and ultimately decisions based on economic value. We therefore conclude that it is vital that future economic models in chronic pain are designed to be fully transparent and hope our open-source code is useful in order to aspire to a common approach to modelling pain that includes robust sensitivity analyses to test structural and parameter uncertainty. PMID:26377997

  14. A proposed tool to integrate environmental and economical assessments of products

    SciTech Connect

    Senthil, Kumaran D.; Ong, S.K.; Nee, A.Y.C.; Tan, Reginald B.H

    2003-01-01

    An attempt has been made to interpret the outcomes of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in terms of environmental costs. This attempt ensures the environmental accountability of the products while LCA ensures their eco-friendly nature. Keeping this as an objective, a Life Cycle Environmental Cost Analysis (LCECA) model was developed. This new tool incorporates costing into the LCA practice. This model prescribes a life cycle environmental cost model to estimate and correlate the effects of these costs in all the life cycle stages of the product. The newly developed categories of eco-costs are: costs of effluent treatment/control/disposal, environmental management systems, eco-taxes, rehabilitation, energy and savings of recycling and reuse strategies. The mathematical model of LCECA determines quantitative expressions between the total cost of products and the various eco-costs. The eco-costs of the alternatives are compared with the computational LCECA model. This method enables the environmental as well as the economic assessment of products, which leads to cost-effective, eco-friendly design of products.

  15. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  16. Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

  17. External Economic Drivers and U.S. Agricultural Production Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    U.S agriculture operates in a market driven economy. As with other businesses, agricultural producers respond to economic incentives and disincentives and make decisions to maximize their welfare. In this paper we examine external economic drivers that shape agricultural systems. Specifically, we c...

  18. Modeling the economics of landfilling organic processing waste streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosentrater, Kurt A.

    2005-11-01

    As manufacturing industries become more cognizant of the ecological effects that their firms have on the surrounding environment, their waste streams are increasingly becoming viewed not only as materials in need of disposal, but also as resources that can be reused, recycled, or reprocessed into valuable products. Within the food processing sector are many examples of various liquid, sludge, and solid biological and organic waste streams that require remediation. Alternative disposal methods for food and other bio-organic manufacturing waste streams are increasingly being investigated. Direct shipping, blending, extrusion, pelleting, and drying are commonly used to produce finished human food, animal feed, industrial products, and components ready for further manufacture. Landfilling, the traditional approach to waste remediation, however, should not be dismissed entirely. It does provide a baseline to which all other recycling and reprocessing options should be compared. This paper discusses the implementation of a computer model designed to examine the economics of landfilling bio-organic processing waste streams. Not only are these results applicable to food processing operations, but any industrial or manufacturing firm would benefit from examining the trends discussed here.

  19. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  20. Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

    2004-11-01

    Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges to the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.

  1. Spatial Modeling of Indian Agriculture, Economic Activity and Population under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    We present a spatial model of economic activity and human population built on physical geography that takes particular account of its effects through agricultural productivity and transport costs for trade. A major component of this work is an agricultural model, driven in part by high-resolution climate data and model output. We put forward India as the initial region for this modeling work; India is a relatively data-rich country, it exhibits significant within-country spatial and temporal variation in agricultural productivity, urbanization rates, and population growth rates, and the climate dynamics of the monsoon are well-studied and expected to change on decadal time scales. Agricultural productivity is modeled as a function of soil, climate, and technology variables. Farmers locate optimally given varying geography and transport costs; in turn, food availability defines urbanization rates and economic activity in non-agricultural sectors. This “social system” integrated assessment model is a step towards a valuable policy tool, but requires a significant mobilization of data and a grid-cell-level system of equations to describe the underlying dynamics of the model. We test against past trends of social-natural system progression in demography, human location, income, food production, etc., and argue that the model could be used to assess future trends under varying climate change scenarios, and eventually serve to model feedbacks through effects on migration, population growth rates, or economic activity.

  2. Integrated Economic Modeling of Water Supply-Quality Tradeoffs: An Application to the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bair, L.; MacEwan, D.

    2015-12-01

    Sustainable water management in the San Joaquin Valley, California involves the complex interaction of agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental water use. California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 requires groundwater basins historically in a state of overdraft to bring the basin into a sustainable balance over the next 20 years. In addition to limiting groundwater availability, implementation of the SGMA has implications for surface and groundwater quality. Availability of groundwater influences agricultural production decisions, resulting in variation in agricultural runoff and changes to surface and groundwater quality. Changes in water quality have economic impacts on agricultural production and urban water use. These impacts range from reductions in crop productivity to costs of alternative water supplies to amend declining water quality. We model the impact of agricultural and urban groundwater availability on surface water quality within the San Joaquin and Kings River watersheds in the Central Valley, downriver to the Mendota Pool by linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), an integrated water supply-quality model, with SWAP (Statewide Agricultural Production Model), a regional agricultural economics model. The integrated model specifies the relationship between changes in groundwater availability, groundwater elevation, agricultural production, and surface water quality. We link the SWAT-SWAP model output to urban and agricultural economic loss calculations that are a function of water quality. Model results demonstrate the economic tradeoffs between groundwater availability and water quality. The results of the integrated economic water supply-quality model are applicable to other regions in California and elsewhere that contain complex water supply-quality interactions.

  3. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  4. Model Learner Outcomes for Home Economics Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Cheryl, Ed.; And Others

    Chapter 1 of this document contains sets of statements adopted by either the Minnesota State Board of Education or the Minnesota State Legislature. They represent the hierarchy used by Department of Education staff as they develop model learner outcomes for each subject area. Contents include learner values, education system values, philosophy for…

  5. A Simple Macro-Economic Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, J. L.

    1976-01-01

    A simplified model based on assumed linear realtionships between the main variables is used to show how changes in expenditure, tax rate, etc. affect other parts of the national economy in successive periods. See SO 505 143 for ordering information. (Author/ND)

  6. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

    2016-02-19

    It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

  7. Selection of Temporal Lags When Modeling Economic and Financial Processes.

    PubMed

    Matilla-Garcia, Mariano; Ojeda, Rina B; Marin, Manuel Ruiz

    2016-10-01

    This paper suggests new nonparametric statistical tools and procedures for modeling linear and nonlinear univariate economic and financial processes. In particular, the tools presented help in selecting relevant lags in the model description of a general linear or nonlinear time series; that is, nonlinear models are not a restriction. The tests seem to be robust to the selection of free parameters. We also show that the test can be used as a diagnostic tool for well-defined models. PMID:27550703

  8. Computer Simulation Models of Economic Systems in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Lester Sanford

    The increasing complexity of educational operations make analytical tools, such as computer simulation models, especially desirable for educational administrators. This MA thesis examined the feasibility of developing computer simulation models of economic systems in higher education to assist decision makers in allocating resources. The report…

  9. The Open Flip--A Digital Economic Model for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weller, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The advent of the internet and digital technologies has given rise to a number of new economic models. These have often been applied to education, but either through faults in the initial models or differences in the characteristics of the education sector, they have not proven to be widely applicable. The use of digital, network technologies…

  10. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 11 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  11. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  12. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  13. An economic model of haemophilia in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Murillo, C; Quintana, S; Ambriz, R; Benitez, H; Berges, A; Collazo, J; Esparza, A; Pompa, T; Taboada, C; Zavala, S; Larochelle, M R; Bentkover, J D

    2004-01-01

    A model was developed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with haemophilia in Mexico. A retrospective chart review of 182 type A haemophiliacs was conducted for patients aged 0-34 years receiving one of three treatments: (i) cryoprecipitate at clinic; (ii) concentrate at home; or (iii) concentrate at clinic. Patients treated at home experienced 30% less joint damage, used 13-54% less factor VIII, had four times fewer clinic visits, and utilized half as many hospital days than those treated at a clinic. For cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, the annual incidence rates of HCV and HIV were calculated to be 3.6% and 1.4% respectively. The life expectancy for patients receiving cryoprecipitate and those receiving concentrate was estimated to be 49 years and 69 years respectively, with 58% of cryoprecipitate patients predicted to die of AIDS before age 69. Across the lifespan, the average annual cost of care was US$11,677 (MN$110,464) for cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, US$10,104 (M$95,580) for concentrate at home patients and US$18,819 (MN$178,027) for concentrate at clinic patients. Using a 5% discount rate, the incremental lifetime cost per year of life added for treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic was US$738 (MN$6981). Rank order stability analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the cost of fVIII. These results indicate that treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic substantially improves clinical outcomes at reduced annual cost levels. PMID:14962215

  14. Citrus production systems to survive greening: economic thresholds.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advanced Production Systems (APS) and Open Hydroponic Systems (OHS) are proposed strategies for citrus production that could increase early production and sustain production at higher levels through perhaps the first 15 years of grove life. Higher tree densities, automated irrigation, and intensive ...

  15. Economic model for seaborne oil trade. Master`s thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Kian-Wah, H.

    1996-03-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-Cassel general-equilibrium system which possesses an economically meaningful equilibrium solution in terms of oil prices, freight rates and the pattern of oil distribution. The implementation of the model is completed using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The study concludes with a scenario study showing how the model could be used to examine the importance of South East Asia`s sealanes in world seaborne oil trade. The model shows the economic vulnerability of oil importing nations, especially Japan, the United States, and Western Europe, to a possible closure of South East Asian sealanes.

  16. Production system with process quality control: modelling and application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsou, Jia-Chi

    2010-07-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a great deal of research dedicated to the study of quality and the economics of production. In this article, we develop a dynamic model which is based on the hypothesis of a traditional economic production quantity model. Taguchi's cost of poor quality is used to evaluate the cost of poor quality in the dynamic production system. A practical case from the automotive industry, which uses the Six-sigma DMAIC methodology, is discussed to verify the proposed model. This study shows that there is an optimal value of quality investment to make the production system reach a reasonable quality level and minimise the production cost. Based on our model, the management can adjust its investment in quality improvement to generate considerable financial return.

  17. The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Chaker, Layal; Falla, Abby; van der Lee, Sven J; Muka, Taulant; Imo, David; Jaspers, Loes; Colpani, Veronica; Mendis, Shanthi; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Bramer, Wichor M; Pazoki, Raha; Franco, Oscar H

    2015-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have large economic impact at multiple levels. To systematically review the literature investigating the economic impact of NCDs [including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), cancer (lung, colon, cervical and breast), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)] on macro-economic productivity. Systematic search, up to November 6th 2014, of medical databases (Medline, Embase and Google Scholar) without language restrictions. To identify additional publications, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted authors in the field. Randomized controlled trials, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological studies and modelling studies carried out in adults (>18 years old) were included. Two independent reviewers performed all abstract and full text selection. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or consulting a third reviewer. Two independent reviewers extracted data using a predesigned data collection form. Main outcome measure was the impact of the selected NCDs on productivity, measured in DALYs, productivity costs, and labor market participation, including unemployment, return to work and sick leave. From 4542 references, 126 studies met the inclusion criteria, many of which focused on the impact of more than one NCD on productivity. Breast cancer was the most common (n = 45), followed by stroke (n = 31), COPD (n = 24), colon cancer (n = 24), DM (n = 22), lung cancer (n = 16), CVD (n = 15), cervical cancer (n = 7) and CKD (n = 2). Four studies were from the WHO African Region, 52 from the European Region, 53 from the Region of the Americas and 16 from the Western Pacific Region, one from the Eastern Mediterranean Region and none from South East Asia. We found large regional differences in DALYs attributable to NCDs but especially for cervical and lung cancer. Productivity losses in the USA ranged from 88 million

  18. Economics.

    PubMed

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation. PMID:27620113

  19. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  20. Land Resources for Crop Production. Agricultural Economic Report Number 572.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hexem, Roger; Krupa, Kenneth S.

    About 35 million acres not being cultivated have high potential for crop use and 117 million more have medium potential, according to the 1982 National Resources Inventory (NRI) conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA committees evaluated the economic potential for converting land based on physical characteristics of the soil; size…

  1. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  2. Children's Mental Health in Times of Economic Recession: Replication and Extension of the Family Economic Stress Model in Finland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Solantaus, Tytti; Leinonen, Jenni; Punam Ki, Raija-Leena

    2004-01-01

    This study evaluated the applicability of the family economic stress model (FESM) in understanding the influences of economic hardship on child mental health during a nationwide economic recession in Finland. The information was gathered from 527 triads of 12-year-olds and their mothers and fathers from a population sample. The structural equation…

  3. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  4. Process economics of renewable biorefineries: butanol and ethanol production in integrated bioprocesses from lignocellulosics and other industrial by-products

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This chapter provides process economic details on production of butanol from lignocellulosic biomass and glycerol in integrated bioreactors where numerous unit operations are combined. In order to compare various processes, economic evaluations were performed using SuperPro Designer Software (versio...

  5. Economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis in dairy cows in the USA.

    PubMed

    Losinger, Willard C

    2006-05-01

    The goal of this study was to measure the economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in dairy cows in the USA, and of specific risk factors for PDD, in 1996. The method applied was an economic-welfare analysis of producer and consumer surplus, with the GUM Workbench used to analyse uncertainties in the measurements. Reduced milk production associated with PDD was found to reduce consumer surplus by Dollars 750 million +/- Dollars 580 million, and to increase the economic surplus of producers by Dollars 560 million +/- Dollars 470 million, with a net economic loss of Dollars 190 million +/- Dollars 130 million. An examination of the economic effects of specific epidemiologic risk factors for PDD showed that having dairy cows that were not born on the operation had important economic consequences associated with the disease, as did the type of land to which dairy cows had access during the winter months and the type of flooring on which cows walked. Washing hoof-trimming equipment between cows was an important biosecurity measure that was associated with reduced PDD. The epidemiologic model used also implicated hoof trimmers who trimmed cattle hooves on other operations as having an important economic impact associated with this disease, although this finding may have been erroneous. PMID:16569275

  6. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  7. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  8. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  9. Redoing U.S. Economic History with Cliometric Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yohe, William P.

    1989-01-01

    Describes a computer simulation based on quarterly models of the U.S. economy during World War I, the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and World War II. Recommends using these simulations to teach facts and knowledge, and as heuristic devices to develop an understanding of complex economic and historical relationships. (LS)

  10. TOWARD EFFICIENT RIPARIAN RESTORATION: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on wa...

  11. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  12. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  13. A generic bio-economic farm model for environmental and economic assessment of agricultural systems.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Sander; Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K

    2010-12-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

  14. A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

    PubMed Central

    Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2010-01-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

  15. Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

    2016-04-01

    In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. PMID:26859327

  16. Hierarchical economic potential approach for techno-economic evaluation of bioethanol production from palm empty fruit bunches.

    PubMed

    Do, Truong Xuan; Lim, Young-Il; Jang, Sungsoo; Chung, Hwa-Jee

    2015-01-01

    A hierarchical four-level approach to determine economic potential (4-level EP) is proposed for preliminary techno-economic analysis of new processes. The 4-level EP includes input/output structure, process flow structure, heat integration (HI), and economic feasibility. Two case studies on a 30.2 t/d (or 12.7 million l/yr) bioethanol plant with and without jet fuel production from palm empty fruit bunches (EFB) were investigated by applying the 4-level EP. The plant flowsheet was established based on experiments in a 0.1t/d pilot plant, including sequential dilute acid and alkali pretreatment, and separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF). EP approached a more reliable value through the hierarchical 4-level EP. The heating energy was reduced considerably by HI. The product value was estimated at $0.8-$1.3/kg of equivalent bioethanol. It was suggested through sensitivity analysis that a large plant size, enhanced production yields, and capital cost reduction were necessary for the lignocellulosic bioethanol production to be profitable. PMID:25898083

  17. Economic impact study of consumer product efficiencies. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-05-30

    The economic impact study of household appliance efficiencies is briefly reported. Task I, Direct Impact on Industry, contains 4 subtasks: materials, labor inputs, energy inputs, and investment. Task II, Direct Impact on Consumers, contains 3 subtasks: life-cycle cost to the consumer, usage patterns, and long-term demand forecast and analysis. The 2 subtasks in Task III, Energy Savings and Impact on Utilities, are residential energy savings and cost and impact on utility generating capacity.

  18. Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, L. D.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of the economic aspects of water pollution control covering publications of 1976-77. This review also includes the policy issues of water management. A list of 77 references is presented. (HM)

  19. Child death in the United States: productivity and the economic burden of parental grief.

    PubMed

    Fox, Melanie; Cacciatore, Joanne; Lacasse, Jeffrey R

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the economic consequences associated with the death of a child. The economic costs (funeral and medical expenses and productivity losses) of child death 6 months following the death were estimated based on 213 parents who had experienced the death of a child (usually unexpectedly and predominantly mothers). Findings suggest that productivity losses associated with child death comprise most of the costs and that the economic effects are substantial. Costs associated with on-the-job productivity losses ("presenteeism") outweigh the costs associated with absenteeism. To date, no research has empirically measured both absenteeism and presenteeism following bereavement. PMID:24588841

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  1. Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaz Martins, Teresa; Araújo, Tanya; Augusta Santos, Maria; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2009-06-01

    We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.

  2. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms.

    PubMed

    Khan, Nymul E; Myers, John A; Tuerk, Amalie L; Curtis, Wayne R

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus® bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2¢/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. PMID:25262429

  3. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms

    SciTech Connect

    Khan, NE; Myers, JA; Tuerk, AL; Curtis, WR

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus (R) bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2(sic)/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xuezhen; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability. PMID:24630402

  5. Economic analysis of royalactin production under uncertainty: Evaluating the effect of parameter optimization

    PubMed Central

    Torres‐Acosta, Mario A.; Aguilar‐Yañez, Jose M.; Rito‐Palomares, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Royalactin is a protein with several different potential uses in humans. Research, in insects and in mammalian cells, has shown that it can accelerate cell division and prevent apoptosis. The method of action is through the use of the epidermal growth factor receptor, which is present in humans. Potential use in humans could be to lower cholesterolemic levels in blood, and to elicit similar effects to those seen in bees, e.g., increased lifespan. Mass production of Royalactin has not been accomplished, though a recent article presented a Pichia pastoris fermentation and recovery by aqueous two‐phase systems at laboratory scale as a possible basis for production. Economic modelling is a useful tool with which compare possible outcomes for the production of such a molecule and in particular, to locate areas where additional research is needed and optimization may be required. This study uses the BioSolve software to perform an economic analysis on the scale‐up of the putative process for Royalactin. The key parameters affecting the cost of production were located via a sensitivity analysis and then evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. Results show that if titer is not optimized the strategy to maintain a low cost of goods is process oriented. After optimization of this parameter the strategy changes to a product‐oriented and the target output becomes the critical parameter determining the cost of goods. This study serves to provide a framework for the evaluation of strategies for future production of Royalactin, by analyzing the factors that influence its cost of manufacture. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 31:744–749, 2015 PMID:25737309

  6. Food Production and Services. Performance Objectives. Criterion Measures. Home Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryant, EuDell H.; And Others

    Several intermediate performance objectives and corresponding criterion measures are listed for each of eight terminal objectives for a food production and services course, which is designed to provide students with an opportunity to express and practice a broad range of food production and service occupations. Major concepts covered include…

  7. The economics of biomass production in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Walsh, M.E.; Lichtenberg, E.; Roningen, V.O.; Shapouri, H.

    1995-12-31

    Biomass crops (e.g. poplar, willow, switchgrass) could become important feedstocks for power, liquid fuel, and chemical production. This paper presents estimates of the potential production of biomass in the US under a range of assumptions. Estimates of potential biomass crop yields and production costs from the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL) are combined with measures of land rents from USDA`s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), to estimate a competitive supply of biomass wood and grass crops. Estimates are made for one potential biomass use--electric power production--where future costs of electricity production from competing fossil fuels set the demand price. The paper outlines the methodology used and limitations of the analysis.

  8. Crop diversity effects on productivity and economic returns under dryland agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing crop diversity has been identified as a method to improve agronomic performance of cropping systems and increase provision of ecosystem services. However, there is a need to understand the economic performance of more diverse cropping systems. Crop productivity and economic net returns we...

  9. On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation--A Response.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schiller, Bradley

    1988-01-01

    Responding to Stiglitz's article "On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation," Schiller disputes the claim that there is growing dissatisfaction with textbooks, stating that the central issue in the debate is "how best to teach economic principles." Discusses the importance of effective textbook…

  10. Modeling Production Plant Forming Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Rhee, M; Becker, R; Couch, R; Li, M

    2004-09-22

    Engineering has simulation tools and experience in modeling forming processes. Y-12 personnel have expressed interest in validating our tools and experience against their manufacturing process activities such as rolling, casting, and forging etc. We have demonstrated numerical capabilities in a collaborative DOE/OIT project with ALCOA that is nearing successful completion. The goal was to use ALE3D to model Alcoa's slab rolling process in order to demonstrate a computational tool that would allow Alcoa to define a rolling schedule that would minimize the probability of ingot fracture, thus reducing waste and energy consumption. It is intended to lead to long-term collaboration with Y-12 and perhaps involvement with other components of the weapons production complex. Using simulations to aid in design of forming processes can: decrease time to production; reduce forming trials and associated expenses; and guide development of products with greater uniformity and less scrap.

  11. Economic assessment of different mulches in conventional and water-saving rice production systems.

    PubMed

    Jabran, Khawar; Hussain, Mubshar; Fahad, Shah; Farooq, Muhammad; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Alharrby, Hesham; Nasim, Wajid

    2016-05-01

    Water-saving rice production systems including alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and aerobic rice (AR) are being increasingly adopted by growers due to global water crises. Application of natural and artificial mulches may further improve water economy of water-saving rice production systems. Conventionally flooded rice (CFR) system has been rarely compared with AWD and AR in terms of economic returns. In this 2-year field study, we compared CFR with AWD and AR (with and without straw and plastic mulches) for the cost of production and economic benefits. Results indicated that CFR had a higher production cost than AWD and AR. However, application of mulches increased the cost of production of AWD and AR production systems where plastic mulch was expensive than straw mulch. Although the mulching increased the cost of production for AWD and AR, the gross income of these systems was also improved significantly. The gross income from mulched plots of AWD and AR was higher than non-mulched plots of the same systems. In conclusion, AWD and AR effectively reduce cost of production by economizing the water use. However, the use of natural and artificial mulches in such water-saving environments further increased the economic returns. The maximized economic returns by using straw mulch in water-saving rice production systems definitely have pragmatic implications for sustainable agriculture. PMID:26832873

  12. A neuro-computational model of economic decisions.

    PubMed

    Rustichini, Aldo; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2015-09-01

    Neuronal recordings and lesion studies indicate that key aspects of economic decisions take place in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Previous work identified in this area three groups of neurons encoding the offer value, the chosen value, and the identity of the chosen good. An important and open question is whether and how decisions could emerge from a neural circuit formed by these three populations. Here we adapted a biophysically realistic neural network previously proposed for perceptual decisions (Wang XJ. Neuron 36: 955-968, 2002; Wong KF, Wang XJ. J Neurosci 26: 1314-1328, 2006). The domain of economic decisions is significantly broader than that for which the model was originally designed, yet the model performed remarkably well. The input and output nodes of the network were naturally mapped onto two groups of cells in OFC. Surprisingly, the activity of interneurons in the network closely resembled that of the third group of cells, namely, chosen value cells. The model reproduced several phenomena related to the neuronal origins of choice variability. It also generated testable predictions on the excitatory/inhibitory nature of different neuronal populations and on their connectivity. Some aspects of the empirical data were not reproduced, but simple extensions of the model could overcome these limitations. These results render a biologically credible model for the neuronal mechanisms of economic decisions. They demonstrate that choices could emerge from the activity of cells in the OFC, suggesting that chosen value cells directly participate in the decision process. Importantly, Wang's model provides a platform to investigate the implications of neuroscience results for economic theory. PMID:26063776

  13. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLM’s net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM’s assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  14. Impact of pretreatment and downstream processing technologies on economics and energy in cellulosic ethanol production

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background While advantages of biofuel have been widely reported, studies also highlight the challenges in large scale production of biofuel. Cost of ethanol and process energy use in cellulosic ethanol plants are dependent on technologies used for conversion of feedstock. Process modeling can aid in identifying techno-economic bottlenecks in a production process. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was performed for conversion of cellulosic feedstock to ethanol using some of the common pretreatment technologies: dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion. Detailed process models incorporating feedstock handling, pretreatment, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, ethanol recovery and downstream processing were developed using SuperPro Designer. Tall Fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) was used as a model feedstock. Results Projected ethanol yields were 252.62, 255.80, 255.27 and 230.23 L/dry metric ton biomass for conversion process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment technologies respectively. Price of feedstock and cellulose enzymes were assumed as $50/metric ton and 0.517/kg broth (10% protein in broth, 600 FPU/g protein) respectively. Capital cost of ethanol plants processing 250,000 metric tons of feedstock/year was $1.92, $1.73, $1.72 and $1.70/L ethanol for process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Ethanol production cost of $0.83, $0.88, $0.81 and $0.85/L ethanol was estimated for production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Water use in the production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment was estimated 5.96, 6.07, 5.84 and 4.36 kg/L ethanol respectively. Conclusions Ethanol price and energy use were highly dependent on process conditions used in the ethanol production plant. Potential for significant ethanol cost

  15. The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

    PubMed

    Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

    2015-12-01

    Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. PMID:26596651

  16. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  17. Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.; Clippe, P.; Pekalski, A.

    2004-06-01

    We develop a model for the evolution of economic entities within a geographical type of framework. On a square symmetry lattice made of three (economic) regions, firms, described by a scalar fitness, are allowed to move, adapt, merge or create spin-offs under predetermined rules, in a space- and time-dependent economic environment. We only consider here one timely variation of the “external economic field condition”. For the firm fitness evolution, we take into account a constraint such that the disappearance of a firm modifies the fitness of nearest-neighboring ones, as in Bak-Sneppen population fitness evolution model. The concentration of firms, the averaged fitness, the regional distribution of firms, and fitness for different time moments, the number of collapsed, merged and new firms as a function of time have been recorded and are discussed. Also the asymptotic values of the number of firms present in the three regions together with their average fitness, as well as the number of respective births and collapses in the three regions are examined. It appears that a sort of critical selection pressure exists. A power-law dependence, signature of self-critical organization is seen in the birth and collapse asymptotic values for a high selection pressure only. A lack of self-organization is also seen at region borders.

  18. Effect of product upgrading on Fischer-Tropsch indirect coal liquefaction economics

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, G.N.; Kramer, S.J.; Tam, S.S.; Fox, J.M. III

    1995-12-31

    Conceptual plant designs with cost estimates for indirect coal liquefaction technology to produce environmentally acceptable transportation liquid fuels meeting the Clear Air Act requirements were developed for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The designs incorporate the latest development in coal gasification technology and advanced Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) slurry reactor design. ASPEN process simulation models were developed to provide detailed plant material and energy balances, utility requirements, operating and capital costs. A linear programming model based on a typical PADD II refinery was developed to assess the values of the produced F-T products. The results then were used in a discounted cash flow spreadsheet model to examine the effect of key process variables on the overall F-T economics. Different models were developed to investigate the various routes of upgrading the F-T products. The effects of incorporating a close-coupled ZSM-5 reactor to upgrade the vapor stream leaving the Fischer-Tropsch reactor have been reported previously. This paper compares two different schemes of F-T was upgrading, namely fluidized bed catalytic cracking verse mild hydrocracking.

  19. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  20. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. PMID:23614394

  1. Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

    2010-09-01

    This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

  2. Cotton production and water quality: Economic and environmental effects of pollution prevention. Agricultural economic report

    SciTech Connect

    Crutchfield, S.R.; Ribaudo, M.O.; Hansen, L.T.; Quiroga, R.

    1992-12-01

    Cotton production, compared with other crops, is less likely to cause erosion-induced water-quality problems because cotton acreage is not the major source of erosion in most regions. For cotton production, the most widespread potential damages to water quality are nitrates from fertilizer polluting ground water and pesticides contaminating surface water. This damage could be reduced by restricting chemical and fertilizer use on all cotton production, but doing so could reduce cotton yields and raise cotton prices. The same level of water-quality improvement could be achieved at less cost by targeting the chemical use or erosion restrictions only to cotton farms with the most vulnerable soils. Data come from a 1989 USDA survey of cotton producers.

  3. Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Penny

    An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

  4. Economical Production of Pu-238: NIAC Phase I Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howe, Steven D.; Crawford, Douglas; Navarro, Jorge; O'Brien, Robert C.; Katalenich, Jeff; Ring, Terry

    2016-01-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238 (Pu-238). The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research (CSNR) has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. Potentially, the front end capital costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. In the Phase I NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. Finally, as the study progressed, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  5. GEEF: a geothermal engineering and economic feasibility model. Description and user's manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-09-01

    The model is designed to enable decision makers to compare the economics of geothermal projects with the economics of alternative energy systems at an early stage in the decision process. The geothermal engineering and economic feasibility computer model (GEEF) is written in FORTRAN IV language and can be run on a mainframe or a mini-computer system. An abbreviated version of the model is being developed for usage in conjunction with a programmable desk calculator. The GEEF model has two main segments, namely (i) the engineering design/cost segment and (ii) the economic analysis segment. In the engineering segment, the model determines the numbers of production and injection wells, heat exchanger design, operating parameters for the system, requirement of supplementary system (to augment the working fluid temperature if the resource temperature is not sufficiently high), and the fluid flow rates. The model can handle single stage systems as well as two stage cascaded systems in which the second stage may involve a space heating application after a process heat application in the first stage.

  6. Economic evaluations with agent-based modelling: an introduction.

    PubMed

    Chhatwal, Jagpreet; He, Tianhua

    2015-05-01

    Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide an inductive or 'bottom-up' approach, i.e. individual-level behaviours define system-level components. ABMs have a unique property to capture emergence phenomena that otherwise cannot be predicted by the combination of individual-level interactions. In this tutorial, we discuss the basic concepts and important features of ABMs. We present a case study of an application of a simple ABM to evaluate the cost effectiveness of screening of an infectious disease. We also provide our model, which was developed using an open-source software program, NetLogo. We discuss software, resources, challenges and future research opportunities of ABMs for economic evaluations. PMID:25609398

  7. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  8. Developing an economically feasible solar brooding system for broiler production

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, N.E.; Handy, W.E.

    1981-01-01

    A computer simulation was used to establish the allowable first cost for a solar collector and storage tank for use in broiler production. To meet the cost constraints, a pressure-stabilized, cylindrical concentrator was selected for use in the system. 4 refs.

  9. Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

    2015-10-06

    In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for microgrid. Electric power supply in microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Due to the fluctuation of solar and wind plants' output, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both power plants. On the other hand, with the growing trend of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PHEV), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. Not only the charging loads from PHEVs, but also the discharging output via Vehicle to Grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all the micro energy sources in microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in microgrid considering conventional, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in modern microgrid.

  10. The economical production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas: Case studies, design, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    1995-10-01

    This project is a combination of process simulation and catalyst development aimed at identifying the most economical method for converting coal to syngas to linear higher alcohols to be used as oxygenated fuel additives. There are two tasks. The goal of Task 1 is to discover, study, and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas, and to explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. The goal of Task 2 is to simulate, by computer, energy efficient and economically efficient processes for converting coal to energy (fuel alcohols and/or power). The primary focus is to convert syngas to fuel alcohols. This report contains results from Task 2. The first step for Task 2 was to develop computer simulations of alternative coal to syngas to linear higher alcohol processes, to evaluate and compare the economics and energy efficiency of these alternative processes, and to make a preliminary determination as to the most attractive process configuration. A benefit of this approach is that simulations will be debugged and available for use when Task 1 results are available. Seven cases were developed using different gasifier technologies, different methods for altering the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas to the desired 1.1/1, and with the higher alcohol fuel additives as primary products and as by-products of a power generation facility. Texaco, Shell, and Lurgi gasifier designs were used to test gasifying coal. Steam reforming of natural gas, sour gas shift conversion, or pressure swing adsorption were used to alter the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas. In addition, a case using only natural gas was prepared to compare coal and natural gas as a source of syngas.

  11. Future Projections for Southern High Plains Agriculture Using Coupled Economic and Hydrologic Models and Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rainwater, K.; Tewari, R.; Willis, D.; Stovall, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Hernandez, A.; Mauget, S. A.; Leiker, G.; Johnson, J.

    2013-12-01

    The objective of the project was to evaluate the hypothesis that predicted climate change will affect the useful life of the Ogallala aquifer in the Southern High Plains (SHP) through its impact on the amount of irrigation withdrawals, and thus affect the yields and economic costs and net income. A ninety-year time frame has been considered, although the research team recognizes that long-term predictions of crop prices and selections are perhaps even more uncertain than long-term weather projections. Previous work by the research team recently demonstrated the development of regionally downscaled climate projections for the SHP. Quantitative projections of precipitation, potential evaporation, and temperature trends for the 90-yr duration were selected from a downscaled set of high-resolution (one-eighth degree) daily climate and hydrological simulations covering the entire Great Plains region, driven by the latest IPCC AR4 climate model outputs. These projections were used as input to the Ogallala Ag Tool software developed by the USDA-ARS to predict daily and seasonal values of those variables, which directly affect irrigation, at different locations in the study area. Results from the Ogallala Ag Tool were then used to drive future projected crop production functions for cotton, corn, wheat, and sorghum using the DSSAT crop model. These production functions were then included in an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling approach that coupled an economic optimization model with a groundwater hydrological model. The groundwater model was based on the Texas Water Development Board's Southern Ogallala Groundwater Availability Model, which has been recalibrated by the research team for previous applications. The coupling of the two models allowed better recognition of spatial heterogeneity across the SHP, such that irrigation water availability was better represented through the spatial variations in pumping demands and saturated thickness. With this hydrologic

  12. Toward efficient riparian restoration: integrating economic, physical, and biological models.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Michio; Adams, Richard M; Wu, Junjie; Bolte, John P; Cox, Matt M; Johnson, Sherri L; Liss, William J; Boggess, William G; Ebersole, Joseph L

    2005-04-01

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on water temperatures and the subsequent impacts on endangered juvenile salmonid populations. The integrated modeling system consists of a physical model that links riparian conditions and hydrological characteristics to water temperature; a biological model that links water temperature and riparian conditions to salmonid abundance, and an economic model that incorporates both physical and biological models to estimate minimum cost allocations of conservation efforts. Our findings indicate that conservation alternatives such as passive and active riparian restoration, the width of riparian restoration zones, and the types of vegetation used in restoration activities should be selected based on the spatial distribution of riparian characteristics in the basin. The relative effectiveness of passive and active restoration plays an important role in determining the efficient allocations of conservation efforts. The time frame considered in the restoration efforts and the magnitude of desired temperature reductions also affect the efficient combinations of restoration activities. If the objective of conservation efforts is to maximize fish populations, then fishery benefits should be directly targeted. Targeting other criterion such as water temperatures would result in different allocations of conservation efforts, and therefore are not generally efficient. PMID:15763152

  13. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  14. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  15. Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011–2012

    PubMed Central

    Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Setting Data from the 2011–2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101 662 Indian households were used. Participants Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. Primary outcome measures The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Results Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (−0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (−0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were −0.832 in the poorest group and −0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (−0.557) and middle (−0.4537) groups. Conclusions Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and

  16. Golbal Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Production

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace Tyner

    2012-05-30

    The project had three main objectives: to build and incorporate an explicit biomass energy sector within the GTAP analytical framework and data base; to provide an analysis of the impact of renewable fuel standards and other policies in the U.S. and E.U, as well as alternative biofuel policies in other parts of the world, on changes in production, prices, consumption, trade and poverty; and to evaluate environmental impacts of alternative policies for bioenergy development. Progress and outputs related to each objective are reported.

  17. Economic assessments of potato production systems in Maine

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Using an integrated enterprise and whole-farm budget model for a 324-ha medium-sized potato farm, the profitability of potatoes grown in combination with fifteen common potato rotation crops in Maine are evaluated. Enterprise budgets for all sixteen crops are calculated while a whole-farm budget syn...

  18. ENHANCED HYDROGEN ECONOMICS VIA COPRODUCTION OF FUELS AND CARBON PRODUCTS

    SciTech Connect

    Kennel, Elliot B; Bhagavatula, Abhijit; Dadyburjor, Dady; Dixit, Santhoshi; Garlapalli, Ravinder; Magean, Liviu; Mukkha, Mayuri; Olajide, Olufemi A; Stiller, Alfred H; Yurchick, Christopher L

    2011-03-31

    This Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory sponsored research effort to develop environmentally cleaner projects as a spin-off of the FutureGen project, which seeks to reduce or eliminate emissions from plants that utilize coal for power or hydrogen production. New clean coal conversion processes were designed and tested for coproducing clean pitches and cokes used in the metals industry as well as a heavy crude oil. These new processes were based on direct liquefaction and pyrolysis techniques that liberate volatile liquids from coal without the need for high pressure or on-site gaseous hydrogen. As a result of the research, a commercial scale plant for the production of synthetic foundry coke has broken ground near Wise, Virginia under the auspices of Carbonite Inc. This plant will produce foundry coke by pyrolyzing a blend of steam coal feedstocks. A second plant is planned by Quantex Energy Inc (in Texas) which will use solvent extraction to coproduce a coke residue as well as crude oil. A third plant is being actively considered for Kingsport, Tennessee, pending a favorable resolution of regulatory issues.

  19. Petroleum production structures: economic resources for Louisiana sport divers

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, K.J.; Thompson, M.E.

    1983-08-01

    The era of expanding petroleum production from marine waters began 12 miles off the Louisiana coast in 1947 with a joint operation. Since then, the expansion of drilling and production operations has continued until, in 1981, approximately 3,500 structures were located in the Gulf of Mexico. Of the total number of structures, federal and state waters off Louisiana contain 3,100. Scientific articles dealing with the role of structures in marine habitat and their relationship to sport fishing in the Gulf of Mexico increased over the decade. This newly publicized beneficial aspect of structures is particularly important to the marine fishery off Louisiana. The structures (to which Dugas et al. attribute 'nearly all of the offshore sport fishery') are called as platforms in their description: These platforms are supported by a prewelded framework of steel pipe. Structures in other areas of the country also attract marine life and sport fishermen. Catch rates by sport fishermen were two to three times higher near structures off California than near natural reefs. (Turner et al. 1969). This may be the result of the 'fish-concentrating' nature of structures.

  20. Integrated Emergy and Economic Evaluation of Tea Production Chains in Anxi, China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emergy and economic methods were used to evaluate and compare tea production systems in Anxi, China. Tea production was classified into three phases, i.e., the nursery, the plantation and tea processing, and each phase was evaluated. The results showed that the nursery subsystems...

  1. The Historical Role of the Production Function in Economics and Business

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, David; Vaughan, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The production function explains a basic technological relationship between scarce resources, or inputs, and output. This paper offers a brief overview of the historical significance and operational role of the production function in business and economics. The origin and development of this function over time is initially explored. Several…

  2. A model of egg production.

    PubMed

    Charles, D R

    1984-07-01

    A quantitative literature review has been used as the basis of an empirical simulation model of the responses in food intake and egg output of laying hens to temperature, light pattern, light intensity, feeding system type, crude protein, methionine, lysine and metabolisable energy. The financial consequences are considered, by the calculation of gross margin of egg value minus food cost. Response to protein intake in an optimal environment is taken as the first limiting factor. Depressions below the maximum are calculated for sub-optimal environments. The model was tested against a sample of flocks for which detailed records were available, and found to give realistic answers. A FORTRAN program was written which calculates egg output and food intake by 4-week production periods, permitting the user to examine the effects of management changes made during lay. Shortened versions of the model, based on annual values have been written for a programmable calculator. PMID:6478277

  3. Modeling the economic value of a Chagas’ disease therapeutic vaccine

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Bruce Y.; Bacon, Kristina M.; Wateska, Angela R.; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Dumonteil, Eric; Hotez, Peter J.

    2012-01-01

    The health burden of Chagas’ disease (resulting from Trypanosoma cruzi infection) in Latin America (estimated to outweigh that of malaria by 5-fold and affect 2–6 million people in Mexico alone) has motivated development of therapeutic vaccines to prevent infection progression to severe disease. Our economic model for a Chagas’ therapeutic vaccine in Mexico suggests that a vaccine would be highly cost-effective and in many cases economically dominant (providing both cost savings and health benefits) throughout a range of protection durations, severe adverse event risk, and dosing regimens and would be most likely to provide a positive return on investment if the vaccine prevented (rather than delayed) the onset of cardiomyopathy. PMID:22894964

  4. Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from lignocellulosic residues in Colombia: a process simulation approach.

    PubMed

    Quintero, Julián A; Moncada, Jonathan; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-07-01

    In this study a techno-economic analysis of the production of bioethanol from four lignocellusic (Sugarcane bagasse, Coffee cut-stems, Rice Husk, and Empty Fruit Bunches) residues is presented for the Colombian case. The ethanol production was evaluated using Aspen Plus and Aspen Process Economic Analyzer carrying out the simulation and the economic evaluation, respectively. Simulations included the composition of lignocellulosic residues, which was determined experimentally. It was found that empty fruit bunches presents the highest ethanol yield from a dry basis point of view (313.83 L/t), while rice husk produced less ethanol (250.56 L/t). The ethanol production cost was assessed for the standalone ethanol plant and the ethanol plant coupled with a cogeneration system. Moreover, ethanol production cost using EFB was the lowest with (0.49 US$/L) and without (0.58 US$/L) cogeneration scheme. PMID:23665691

  5. Environmental and economic suitability of forest biomass-based bioenergy production in the Southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dwivedi, Puneet

    This study attempts to ascertain the environmental and economic suitability of utilizing forest biomass for cellulosic ethanol production in the Southern United States. The study is divided into six chapters. The first chapter details the background and defines the relevance of the study along with objectives. The second chapter reviews the existing literature to ascertain the present status of various existing conversion technologies. The third chapter assesses the net energy ratio and global warming impact of ethanol produced from slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.) biomass. A life-cycle assessment was applied to achieve the task. The fourth chapter assesses the role of emerging bioenergy and voluntary carbon markets on the profitability of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) landowners by combining the Faustmann and Hartmann models. The fifth chapter assesses perceptions of four stakeholder groups (Non-Government Organization, Academics, Industries, and Government) on the use of forest biomass for bioenergy production in the Southern United States using the SWOT-AHP (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat-Analytical Hierarchy Process) technique. Finally, overall conclusions are made in the sixth chapter. Results indicate that currently the production of cellulosic ethanol is limited as the production cost of cellulosic ethanol is higher than the production cost of ethanol derived from corn. However, it is expected that the production cost of cellulosic ethanol will come down in the future from its current level due to ongoing research efforts. The total global warming impact of E85 fuel (production and consumption) was found as 10.44 tons where as global warming impact of an equivalent amount of gasoline (production and consumption) was 21.45 tons. This suggests that the production and use of ethanol derived from slash pine biomass in the form of E85 fuel in an automobile saves about 51% of carbon emissions when compared to gasoline. The net energy ratio

  6. Economic analysis of municipal wastewater utilization for thermoelectric power production

    SciTech Connect

    Safari, I.; Walker, M.; Abbasian, J.; Arastoopour, H.; Hsieh, M-K.; Theregowda, R.; Dzombak, D.; Miller, D.

    2011-01-01

    The thermoelectric power industry in the U.S. uses a large amount of freshwater. The large water demand is increasingly a problem, especially for new power plant development, as availability of freshwater for new uses diminishes in the United States. Reusing non-traditional water sources, such as treated municipal wastewater, provides one option to mitigate freshwater usage in the thermoelectric power industry. The amount of freshwater withdrawal that can be displaced with non-traditional water sources at a particular location requires evaluation of the water management and treatment requirements, considering the quality and abundance of the non-traditional water sources. This paper presents the development of an integrated costing model to assess the impact of degraded water treatment, as well as the implications of increased tube scaling in the main condenser. The model developed herein is used to perform case studies of various treatment, condenser cleaning and condenser configurations to provide insight into the ramifications of degraded water use in the cooling loops of thermoelectric power plants. Further, this paper lays the groundwork for the integration of relationships between degraded water quality, scaling characteristics and volatile emission within a recirculating cooling loop model.

  7. Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

  8. Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model.

    PubMed

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented. PMID:18363053

  9. Production of biosolid fuels from municipal sewage sludge: Technical and economic optimisation.

    PubMed

    Wzorek, Małgorzata; Tańczuk, Mariusz

    2015-08-01

    The article presents the technical and economic analysis of the production of fuels from municipal sewage sludge. The analysis involved the production of two types of fuel compositions: sewage sludge with sawdust (PBT fuel) and sewage sludge with meat and bone meal (PBM fuel). The technology of the production line of these sewage fuels was proposed and analysed. The main objective of the study is to find the optimal production capacity. The optimisation analysis was performed for the adopted technical and economic parameters under Polish conditions. The objective function was set as a maximum of the net present value index and the optimisation procedure was carried out for the fuel production line input capacity from 0.5 to 3 t h(-1), using the search step 0.5 t h(-1). On the basis of technical and economic assumptions, economic efficiency indexes of the investment were determined for the case of optimal line productivity. The results of the optimisation analysis show that under appropriate conditions, such as prices of components and prices of produced fuels, the production of fuels from sewage sludge can be profitable. In the case of PBT fuel, calculated economic indexes show the best profitability for the capacity of a plant over 1.5 t h(-1) output, while production of PBM fuel is beneficial for a plant with the maximum of searched capacities: 3.0 t h(-1). Sensitivity analyses carried out during the investigation show that influence of both technical and economic assessments on the location of maximum of objective function (net present value) is significant. PMID:26116645

  10. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    PubMed Central

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  11. The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B.; Siddiqui, S.

    2015-05-01

    The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions.

  12. The value of coal combustion products: an economic assessment of CCP unitization for the US economy

    SciTech Connect

    Steward, A.

    2005-07-01

    The recently released study by the American Coal Council (ACC) on 'The Value of Coal Combustion Products' provides a detailed economic assessment of CCP utilization for US markets and the US economy. Over 125 million tons of CCPs are produced in the US each year. The projected growth in the nation's utility-coal industry will result in the production of even greater volumes of CCPs. The ACC study details: how CCPs are currently being utilized; what factors are affecting utilization growth; what are the economic benefits of avoiding disposal costs; what is the annual revenue potential of CCP utilization; what direct economic benefits in employment and tax revenues can be gained; and what indirect economic benefits are available for support industries, coal consumers and the building industry. 9 refs., 16 tabs.

  13. Gas plant economic optimization is more than meeting product specification

    SciTech Connect

    Berkowitz, P.N.; Colwell, L.W.; Gamez, J.P.

    1996-12-31

    Gas plants require a higher level of process control to optimize the process to maximize operating profits. Automation alone does not achieve this objective whereas, on-line dynamic optimization of the control variables based on product pricing, the cost to process the gas and the contracts for gas and liquids is solvable by new control techniques. Daily operations are affected by a paradigm shift in the method of control for the facility. This newly developed and site proven technique has demonstrated how to improve benefits when net processing margins are positive and minimize operating cost when liquids margins are negative. Because ethane recovery versus its rejection is not a binary decision, a better means to operate can be shown to benefit the gas plant operator. Each specification has a cost to meet it or a penalty to exceed it. However, if allowed, exceeding specification may prove beneficial to the net profitability of the operations. With the decision being made on-line every few minutes, the results are more dramatic than previously understood. Gas Research Institute and Continental Controls, Inc. have installed more than 10 such systems in US gas processing plants. Project payout from the use of the MVC{reg_sign} technology has on average been less than six months. Processing savings have ranged from $.0075 to $.024 per Mcf. The authors paper last year showed where the benefits can be derived. This year the results of those facilities are shared along with the methodology to achieve them.

  14. Economic and Technical Assessment of Wood Biomass Fuel Gasification for Industrial Gas Production

    SciTech Connect

    Anastasia M. Gribik; Ronald E. Mizia; Harry Gatley; Benjamin Phillips

    2007-09-01

    This project addresses both the technical and economic feasibility of replacing industrial gas in lime kilns with synthesis gas from the gasification of hog fuel. The technical assessment includes a materials evaluation, processing equipment needs, and suitability of the heat content of the synthesis gas as a replacement for industrial gas. The economic assessment includes estimations for capital, construction, operating, maintenance, and management costs for the reference plant. To perform these assessments, detailed models of the gasification and lime kiln processes were developed using Aspen Plus. The material and energy balance outputs from the Aspen Plus model were used as inputs to both the material and economic evaluations.

  15. Jobs and Economic Development Impacts from Small Wind: JEDI Model in the Works (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2012-06-01

    This presentation covers the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in economic impact analysis for wind power Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, JEDI results, small wind JEDI specifics, and a request for information to complete the model.

  16. Economic models for prevention: making a system work for patients

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe alternative means of providing patient centered, preventive based, services using an alternative non-profit, economic model. Hard to reach, vulnerable groups, including children, adults and elders, often have difficulties accessing traditional dental services for a number of reasons, including economic barriers. By partnering with community organizations that serve these groups, collaborative services and new opportunities for access are provided. The concept of a dental home is well accepted as a means of providing care, and, for these groups, provision of such services within community settings provides a sustainable means of delivery. Dental homes provided through community partnerships can deliver evidence based dental care, focused on a preventive model to achieve and maintain oral health. By using a non-profit model, the entire dental team is provided with incentives to deliver measurable quality improvements in care, rather than a more traditional focus on volume of activity alone. Examples are provided that demonstrate how integrated oral health services can deliver improved health outcomes with the potential to reduce total costs while improving quality. PMID:26391814

  17. Economic models for prevention: making a system work for patients.

    PubMed

    Helgeson, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe alternative means of providing patient centered, preventive based, services using an alternative non-profit, economic model. Hard to reach, vulnerable groups, including children, adults and elders, often have difficulties accessing traditional dental services for a number of reasons, including economic barriers. By partnering with community organizations that serve these groups, collaborative services and new opportunities for access are provided. The concept of a dental home is well accepted as a means of providing care, and, for these groups, provision of such services within community settings provides a sustainable means of delivery. Dental homes provided through community partnerships can deliver evidence based dental care, focused on a preventive model to achieve and maintain oral health. By using a non-profit model, the entire dental team is provided with incentives to deliver measurable quality improvements in care, rather than a more traditional focus on volume of activity alone. Examples are provided that demonstrate how integrated oral health services can deliver improved health outcomes with the potential to reduce total costs while improving quality. PMID:26391814

  18. Hybrid Modelling of the Economical Consequences of Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2013-05-01

    A hybrid modelling methodology is proposed to estimate the probability of exceedance of the intensities of extreme magnitude earthquakes (PEI) and of their direct economical consequences (PEDEC). The hybrid modeling uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) combined with empirical Green function (EGF) and Neural Network (NN) techniques in order to estimate the seismic hazard (PEIs) of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK. The PEDEC are computed by using appropriate vulnerability functions combined with the scenario intensity samples, and Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology is validated for Mw 8 magnitude subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican Pacific Coast. The results obtained with the proposed methodology, such as those of the PEDECs in terms of the joint event "damage Cost (C) - maximum ground intensities", of the conditional return period of C given that the maximum intensity exceeds a certain value, could be used by decision makers to allocate funds or to implement policies, to mitigate the impact associated to the plausible occurrence of future extreme magnitude earthquakes.

  19. Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

    PubMed

    Tang, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations. PMID:25169062

  20. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective. PMID:25288814

  1. Energy production, distribution, and pollution controls: Combining engineering and economic analysis to enhance efficiency and policy design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perkis, David F.

    Three published articles are presented which focus on enhancing various aspects of the energy supply chain. While each paper adopts a different methodology, all three combine engineering data and/or techniques with economic analysis to improve efficiency or policy design within energy markets. The first paper combines a chemical engineering plant design model with an economic assessment of product enhancements within an ethanol production facility. While a new chemical process is shown to achieve greater ethanol yields, the animal feed by-products are denatured and decrease in value due to the degradation of a key nutritional amino acid. Overall, yield increases outweigh any costs, providing additional value to firms adopting this process. The second paper uses a mixed integer linear model to assess the optimal location of cellulosic ethanol production facilities within the state of Indiana. Desired locations with low costs are linked to regions with high yield corn growth, as these areas provide an abundance of corn stover, a by-product of corn and a cellulosic source of ethanol. The third paper implements experimental economic methods to assess the effectiveness of policies intended to control prices in emissions permit markets. When utilizing reserve permit auctions as an alternative to setting explicit maximum prices, prices are elevated beyond the theoretical predictions of the model within the conditions of the experiment. The most likely cause of higher prices is the negotiating power provided to sellers by grandfathering permits as evidenced by higher than expected welfare gains to sellers. Before presenting the articles, a discussion is introduced regarding the role of assumptions used by economists. For each article, a key assumption is highlighted and the consequences of making a different assumption are provided. Whether the consequences are large or small, the benefits of elucidating our models with assumptions based on real world behaviors are clearly

  2. A Predictive Model for the Marketing of Home Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callahan, Kathryn A.

    1993-01-01

    Responses from 574 of 827 students in introductory home economics classes identified positive influences in selecting home economics as a major: friends, high school home economics teachers, and home economics faculty. Negative influences were family, other high school teachers, radio advertisements, and campus recruitment. (SK)

  3. Techno-economic evaluation of a two-step biological process for hydrogen production.

    PubMed

    Ljunggren, Mattias; Zacchi, Guido

    2010-01-01

    An integrated biological process for the production of hydrogen based on thermophilic and photo-heterotrophic fermentation was evaluated from a technical and economic standpoint. Besides the two fermentation steps the process also includes pretreatment of the raw material (potato steam peels) and purification of hydrogen using amine absorption. The study aimed neither at determining the absolute cost of biohydrogen nor at an economic optimization of the production process, but rather at studying the effects of different parameters on the production costs of biohydrogen as a guideline for future improvements. The effect of the key parameters, hydrogen productivity and yield and substrate concentration in the two fermentations on the cost of the hydrogen produced was studied. The selection of the process conditions was based mainly on laboratory data. The process was simulated by use of the software Aspen Plus and the capital costs were estimated using the program Aspen Icarus Process Evaluator. The study shows that the photo-fermentation is the main contributor to the hydrogen production cost mainly because of the cost of plastic tubing, for the photo-fermentors, which represents 40.5% of the hydrogen production cost. The costs of the capital investment and chemicals were also notable contributors to the hydrogen production cost. Major economic improvements could be achieved by increasing the productivity of the two fermentation steps on a medium-term to long-term scale. PMID:20039381

  4. Methanol production with elemental phosphorus byproduct gas: technical and economic feasibility

    SciTech Connect

    Lyke, S.E.; Moore, R.H.

    1981-01-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of using a typical, elemental, phosphorus byproduct gas stream in methanol production is assessed. The purpose of the study is to explore the potential of a substitute for natural gas. The first part of the study establishes economic tradeoffs between several alternative methods of supplying the hydrogen which is needed in the methanol synthesis process to react with CO from the off gas. The preferred alternative is the Battelle Process, which uses natural gas in combination with the off gas in an economically sized methanol plant. The second part of the study presents a preliminary basic design of a plant to (1) clean and compress the off gas, (2) return recovered phosphorus to the phosphorus plant, and (3) produce methanol by the Battelle Process. Use of elemental phosphorus byproduct gas in methanol production appears to be technically feasible. The Battelle Process shows a definite but relatively small economic advantage over conventional methanol manufacture based on natural gas alone. The process would be economically feasible only where natural gas supply and methanol market conditions at a phosphorus plant are not significantly less favorable than at competing methanol plants. If off-gas streams from two or more phosphorus plants could be combined, production of methanol using only offgas might also be economically feasible. The North American methanol market, however, does not seem likely to require another new methanol project until after 1990. The off-gas cleanup, compression, and phosphorus-recovery system could be used to produce a CO-rich stream that could be economically attractive for production of several other chemicals besides methanol.

  5. Overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bickler, D. B.

    1985-01-01

    An overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production were presented. Present focus is on low-cost process technology for higher-efficiency cells of up to 18% or higher. Process development concerns center on the use of less than optimum silicon sheet, the control of production yields, and making uniformly efficient large-area cells. High-efficiency cell factors that require process development are bulk material perfection, very shallow junction formation, front-surface passivation, and finely detailed metallization. Better bulk properties of the silicon sheet and the keeping of those qualities throughout large areas during cell processing are required so that minority carrier lifetimes are maintained and cell performance is not degraded by high doping levels. When very shallow junctions are formed, the process must be sensitive to metallizatin punch-through, series resisitance in the cell, and control of dopant leaching during surface passivation. There is a need to determine the sensitivity to processing by mathematical modeling and experimental activities.

  6. Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

    2009-04-01

    Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment. PMID:19381329

  7. The October 1973 NASA mission model analysis and economic assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    Results are presented of the 1973 NASA Mission Model Analysis. The purpose was to obtain an economic assessment of using the Shuttle to accommodate the payloads and requirements as identified by the NASA Program Offices and the DoD. The 1973 Payload Model represents a baseline candidate set of future payloads which can be used as a reference base for planning purposes. The cost of implementing these payload programs utilizing the capabilities of the shuttle system is analyzed and compared with the cost of conducting the same payload effort using expendable launch vehicles. There is a net benefit of 14.1 billion dollars as a result of using the shuttle during the 12-year period as compared to using an expendable launch vehicle fleet.

  8. Technical and economic models of a DBS system for Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roscoe, O. S.

    A comprehensive, multidisciplinary study program to develop information regarding the possible implementation of a direct broadcasting satellite system for Canada was completed in 1983. The program included market studies and technical and economic modeling of alternative DBS systems. Both 50 dBW and 54 dBW edge-of-coverage EIRP systems were modeled, with both 4 and 6 beam coverage. It is estimated that an eight to ten channel system for Canada would cost between $400 million and $650 million (1982 Canadian dollars). The main requirement for DBS television service is in rural Canada. Market forecasts are that up to 2-1/2 million households would purchase DBS home receivers. Allowing for a real rate of return of 6 percent, the monthly cost per household for delivery of all channels would range from $5 to $7.

  9. Advanced process modeling at the BCL smelter: Improving economic and environmental performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathi, Nagendra; Peek, Edgar; Stroud, Milton

    2011-01-01

    Since 1973 Bamangwato Concessions Limited (BCL) has operated a nickel-copper smelter in Selebi-Phikwe, Botswana. The smelter treats concentrates from local mines and various custom feed concentrates. The nickel throughput capacity of this smelter is constrained by a low nickel feed grade in its primary BCL concentrate. BCL contracted Xstrata Process Support (XPS) to assist in identifying key economic drivers to maximize revenue-generating opportunities. After the disclosure of essential BCL plant performance data XPS developed and utilized advanced metallurgical modeling techniques to identify production bottlenecks, calculate Ni, Cu, and Co recoveries, manage the slag volumes, increase the custom feed capacity, and perform various feasibility analyses for key unit process operations in the BCL smelter. The methodology for developing the process model and its application in contributing to the economic bottom line are outlined in this paper.

  10. Biofuel production system with operation flexibility: Evaluation of economic and environmental performance under external disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kou, Nannan

    Biomass derived liquid hydrocarbon fuel (biofuel) has been accepted as an effective way to mitigate the reliance on petroleum and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. An increasing demand for second generation biofuels, produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and compatible with current infrastructure and vehicle technologies, addresses two major challenges faced by the current US transportation sector: energy security and global warming. However, biofuel production is subject to internal disturbances (feedstock supply and commodity market) and external factors (energy market). The biofuel industry has also heavily relied on government subsidy during the early development stages. In this dissertation, I investigate how to improve the economic and environmental performance of biorefineries (and biofuel plant), as well as enhance its survivability under the external disturbances. Three types of disturbance are considered: (1) energy market fluctuation, (2) subsidy policy uncertainty, and (3) extreme weather conditions. All three factors are basically volatile, dynamic, and even unpredictable, which makes them difficult to model and have been largely ignored to date. Instead, biofuel industry and biofuel research are intensively focused on improving feedstock conversion efficiency and capital cost efficiency while assuming these advancements alone will successfully generate higher profit and thus foster the biofuel industry. The collapse of the largest corn ethanol biofuel company, Verasun Energy, in 2008 calls into question this efficiency-driven approach. A detailed analysis has revealed that although the corn ethanol plants operated by Verasun adopted the more efficient (i.e. higher ethanol yield per bushel of corn and lower capital cost) dry-mill technology, they could not maintain a fair profit margin under fluctuating market condition which made ethanol production unprofitable. This is because dry-mill plant converts a single type of biomass feedstock (corn

  11. A Model For Rapid Estimation of Economic Loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

  12. A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bean, John P.

    A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

  13. The Hanford Site New Production Reactor (NPR) economic and demographic baseline forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Cluett, C.; Clark, D.C. ); Pittenger, D.B. )

    1990-08-01

    The objective of this is to present baseline employment and population forecasts for Benton, Franklin, and Yakima Counties. These forecasts will be used in the socioeconomic analysis portion of the New Production Reactor Environmental Impact Statement. Aggregate population figures for the three counties in the study area were developed for high- and low-growth scenarios for the study period 1990 through 2040. Age-sex distributions for the three counties during the study period are also presented. The high and low scenarios were developed using high and low employment projections for the Hanford site. Hanford site employment figures were used as input for the HARC-REMI Economic and Demographic (HED) model to produced baseline employment forecasts for the three counties. These results, in turn, provided input to an integrated three-county demographic model. This model, a fairly standard cohort-component model, formalizes the relationship between employment and migration by using migration to equilibrate differences in labor supply and demand. In the resulting population estimates, age-sex distributions for 1981 show the relatively large work force age groups in Benton County while Yakima County reflects higher proportions of the population in the retirement ages. The 2040 forecasts for all three counties reflect the age effects of relatively constant and low fertility increased longevity, as well as the cumulative effects of the migration assumptions in the model. By 2040 the baby boom population will be 75 years and older, contributing to the higher proportion of population in the upper end age group. The low scenario age composition effects are similar. 13 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs.

  14. HIGH-TEMPERATURE ELECTROLYSIS FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROGEN AND SYNGAS PRODUCTION FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY – SYSTEM SIMULATION AND ECONOMICS

    SciTech Connect

    J. E. O'Brien; M. G. McKellar; E. A. Harvego; C. M. Stoots

    2009-05-01

    A research and development program is under way at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to assess the technological and scale-up issues associated with the implementation of solid-oxide electrolysis cell technology for efficient high-temperature hydrogen production from steam. This work is supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, under the Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative. This paper will provide an overview of large-scale system modeling results and economic analyses that have been completed to date. System analysis results have been obtained using the commercial code UniSim, augmented with a custom high-temperature electrolyzer module. Economic analysis results were based on the DOE H2A analysis methodology. The process flow diagrams for the system simulations include an advanced nuclear reactor as a source of high-temperature process heat, a power cycle and a coupled steam electrolysis loop. Several reactor types and power cycles have been considered, over a range of reactor outlet temperatures. Pure steam electrolysis for hydrogen production as well as coelectrolysis for syngas production from steam/carbon dioxide mixtures have both been considered. In addition, the feasibility of coupling the high-temperature electrolysis process to biomass and coal-based synthetic fuels production has been considered. These simulations demonstrate that the addition of supplementary nuclear hydrogen to synthetic fuels production from any carbon source minimizes emissions of carbon dioxide during the production process.

  15. Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of wastewater-based algal biofuel production: A case study.

    PubMed

    Xin, Chunhua; Addy, Min M; Zhao, Jinyu; Cheng, Yanling; Cheng, Sibo; Mu, Dongyan; Liu, Yuhuan; Ding, Rijia; Chen, Paul; Ruan, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Combining algae cultivation and wastewater treatment for biofuel production is considered the feasible way for resource utilization. An updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis method that integrates resources availability into techno-economic analysis was employed to evaluate the wastewater-based algal biofuel production with the consideration of wastewater treatment improvement, greenhouse gases emissions, biofuel production costs, and coproduct utilization. An innovative approach consisting of microalgae cultivation on centrate wastewater, microalgae harvest through flocculation, solar drying of biomass, pyrolysis of biomass to bio-oil, and utilization of co-products, was analyzed and shown to yield profound positive results in comparison with others. The estimated break even selling price of biofuel ($2.23/gallon) is very close to the acceptable level. The approach would have better overall benefits and the internal rate of return would increase up to 18.7% if three critical components, namely cultivation, harvest, and downstream conversion could achieve breakthroughs. PMID:27039331

  16. Environmental, economic and social impact of aviation biofuel production in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Cremonez, Paulo André; Feroldi, Michael; de Jesus de Oliveira, Carlos; Teleken, Joel Gustavo; Alves, Helton José; Sampaio, Silvio Cézar

    2015-03-25

    The Brazilian aviation industry is currently developing biofuel technologies that can maintain the operational and energy demands of the sector, while reducing the dependence on fossil fuels (mainly kerosene) and greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of the current research was to identify the major environmental, economic and social impacts arising from the production of aviation biofuels in Brazil. Despite the great potential of these fuels, there is a significant need for improved routes of production and specifically for lower production costs of these materials. In addition, the productive chains of raw materials for obtaining these bioenergetics can be linked to environmental impacts by NOx emissions, extensive use of agricultural land, loss of wildlife and intensive water use, as well as economic, social and political impacts. PMID:25582405

  17. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2016-04-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

  18. Improving efficiencies in pharmaceutical distribution channels using the economic order quantity model.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, D L; Schommer, J C

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate empirically the potential cost savings to a pharmaceutical wholesaler using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model. This model allows for calculating the order quantity that minimizes both ordering and holding costs. A regional pharmaceutical wholesaler was selected for a case analysis study using the EOQ model. Eleven brand name products were randomly selected for the analysis. The average yearly cost savings using EOQ was $31.92 per product. The potential yearly cost savings based on 8500 brand name stock-keeping units was $271,320. Using EOQ can therefore assist pharmaceutical wholesalers in minimizing holding and ordering costs and improve efficiency for pharmaceutical distribution channels. PMID:8111811

  19. Evolution of Money Distribution in a Simple Economic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, X. San; Carter, Thomas J.

    An analytical approach is utilized to study the money evolution in a simple agent-based economic model, where every agent randomly selects someone else and gives the target one dollar unless he runs out of money. (No one is allowed to go into debt.) If originally no agent is in poverty, for most of time the economy is found to be dominated by a Gaussian money distribution, with a fixed mean and an increasing variance proportional to time. This structure begins to be drifted toward the left when the tail of the Gaussian hits the left boundary, and the drift becomes faster and faster, until a steady state is reached. The steady state generally follows the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution, except for the points around the origin. Our result shows that, the pdf for the utterly destitute is only half of that predicted by the Boltzmann solution. An implication of this is that the economic structure may be improved through manipulating transaction rules.

  20. Crop production and economics in Northwest Kansas as related to irrigation capacity

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Crop production and economics of corn, grain sorghum, soybean, and sunflower under irrigated and dryland conditions were simulated using 34 years (1972-2005) of weather data in Northwest Kansas. Irrigation system capacities ranged from 2.5 to 8.5 mm/day. The simulated long-term annual average net ir...

  1. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability (Journal article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show...

  2. Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation--A Response.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sichel, Werner

    1988-01-01

    Focusing on areas of contention, the author responds to "Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation" by Stiglitz. Contends that Stiglitz's description of principles textbooks is insufficient, states that the textbook market is more oligopolistic than monopolistic, and cautions writers against deleting parts of…

  3. Stimulating the Manufacturing and Distribution of Rehabilitation Products: Economic and Policy Incentives and Disincentives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scadden, Lawrence A.

    Personal interviews and written correspondence were used to obtain information from 39 officers of companies involved in the manufacture and distribution of rehabilitation-related products, regarding their perceptions of the potential effects of various economic factors and governmental policies. An attempt was made to identify disincentives to…

  4. Economic analysis and treatment of trematode infections in channel catfish production ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bolbophorus spp. have been associated with high mortalities and productions loss in commercial catfish. To assess the economic impact, a study was conducted on a commercial catfish operation with trematode infections. Fish were sampled (n=40 ponds) and examined for metacercariae. Each pond was pla...

  5. Economic Growth, Productivity, and Public Education Funding: Is South Carolina a Death Spiral State?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Lisa G.; Knoeppel, Robert C.; Della Sala, Matthew R.; Watson, Jim R.

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, most states experienced declines in employment, consumer spending, and economic productivity (Alm, Buschman, and Sjoquist 2011). In turn, these events led to historic declines in state tax revenues (Mikesell and Mullins 2010; Boyd and Dadayan 2009), resulting in major cuts in public spending. Local…

  6. Economic impact of GM crops: the global income and production effects 1996-2012.

    PubMed

    Brookes, Graham; Barfoot, Peter

    2014-01-01

    A key part of any assessment of the global value of crop biotechnology in agriculture is an examination of its economic impact at the farm level. This paper follows earlier annual studies which examined economic impacts on yields, key costs of production, direct farm income and effects, and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops has continued to occur at a rapid rate, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2012. This annual updated analysis shows that there have been very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion for the 17-year period (in nominal terms). These economic gains have been divided roughly 50% each to farmers in developed and developing countries. GM technology have also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having added 122 million tonnes and 230 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s. PMID:24637520

  7. Economic impact of stable flies (Diptera: Muscidae) on dairy and beef cattle production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Stable flies, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), are among the most important arthropod pests of cattle worldwide. The most recent detailed estimate of the economic impact of stable flies on cattle production, $608 million, was published in 1992. Subsequently, several studies on the impact of stable flies on...

  8. Teaching Basic Production Economic Principles to Secondary School Students of Vocational Agriculture: An Evaluative Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGuire, James E.

    Four modules of instruction on basic production economic principles were developed, tried in high school classes of students preparing for on- and off-farm agricultural occupations, and evaluated for content and teaching. Basic principles studied were supply and demand, value theory, variable proportions, and marginal analysis. Total and part…

  9. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  10. Measuring economic complexity of countries and products: which metric to use?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Vidmer, Alexandre; Medo, Matsúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Evaluating the economies of countries and their relations with products in the global market is a central problem in economics, with far-reaching implications to our theoretical understanding of the international trade as well as to practical applications, such as policy making and financial investment planning. The recent Economic Complexity approach aims to quantify the competitiveness of countries and the quality of the exported products based on the empirical observation that the most competitive countries have diversified exports, whereas developing countries only export few low quality products - typically those exported by many other countries. Two different metrics, Fitness-Complexity and the Method of Reflections, have been proposed to measure country and product score in the Economic Complexity framework. We use international trade data and a recent ranking evaluation measure to quantitatively compare the ability of the two metrics to rank countries and products according to their importance in the network. The results show that the Fitness-Complexity metric outperforms the Method of Reflections in both the ranking of products and the ranking of countries. We also investigate a generalization of the Fitness-Complexity metric and show that it can produce improved rankings provided that the input data are reliable.

  11. Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

  12. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality, and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  13. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  14. Technology for improving production, economic efficiency, quality, and sustainability in peanut production and handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  15. MODELING JOINT PRODUCTION OF WILDLIFE AND TIMBER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Production of marketed commodities and protection of natural systems often conflict. A
    focus on only one goal can result in large losses in other goals and may result in inefficient and
    unsustainable outcomes. In this paper we develop a method that combines economic and
    ...

  16. Economic feasibility of ethanol production from biomass and waste resources via catalytic reaction.

    PubMed

    Yeon, Sun-Hwa; Shin, Dae-Hyun; Nho, Nam-Sun; Shin, Kyoung-Hee; Jin, Chang-Soo

    2013-04-01

    An economic evaluation of ethanol (EtOH) production from a thermo-chemical process derived from biomass/waste feedstocks was conducted. The influence of feed amounts, catalytic conversions, and EtOH selling prices was examined as these are the major variables for the economic evaluation of biomass/wastes conversion to EtOH. Among the three feedstock systems of biomass, high-moisture municipal solid waste (MSW), and plastic waste, the plastic waste has far better economic feasibility, with a payback period of 2-5 years at maximum CO conversion (40%) from syngas to ethanol, due to its higher heating value in comparison with biomass and high-moisture MSW. The heating value of the feedstock is a key factor in determining the overall economic efficiency in a thermo-chemical EtOH production system. Furthermore, enhancement of the CO conversion (related to catalytic activity) from syngas to EtOH using a low cost catalyst is necessary to retain economic efficiency because the CO conversion and cost consideration of catalyst are crucial factors to reduce the payback period. PMID:23179512

  17. Neutrino masses in the economical 3-3-1 model

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, P. V.; Long, H. N.; Soa, D. V.

    2007-04-01

    We show that in the framework of the economical 3-3-1 model, the suitable pattern of neutrino masses arises from three quite different sources - the lepton-number conserving, the spontaneous lepton-number breaking, and the explicit lepton-number violating, widely ranging over mass scales including the GUT one: u{approx}O(1) GeV, v{approx_equal}246 GeV, {omega}{approx}O(1) TeV, and M{approx}O(10{sup 16}) GeV. At the tree level, the model contains three Dirac neutrinos: one massless, and two large with degenerate masses in the range of the electron mass. At the one-loop level, the left-handed and right-handed neutrinos obtain Majorana masses M{sub L,R} in orders of 10{sup -2}-10{sup -3} eV and degenerate in M{sub R}=-M{sub L}, while the Dirac masses get a large reduction down to eV scale through a finite mass renormalization. In this model, the contributions of new physics are strongly signified, the degenerations in the masses and the last hierarchy between the Majorana and Dirac masses can be completely removed by heavy particles. All the neutrinos get mass and can fit the data. The acceptable set of the input data does not induce the large lepton flavor violating branching ratios such as Br({mu}{yields}e{gamma})

  18. Fermion masses in the economical 3-3-1 model

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, P. V.; Huong, Tr. T.; Huong, D. T.; Long, H. N.

    2006-09-01

    We show that, in frameworks of the economical 3-3-1 model, all fermions get masses. At the tree level, one up-quark and two down-quarks are massless, but the one-loop corrections give all quarks the consistent masses. This conclusion is in contradiction to the previous analysis in which the third scalar triplet has been introduced. This result is based on the key properties of the model: First, there are three quite different scales of vacuum expectation values: {omega}{approx}O(1) TeV, v{approx_equal}246 GeV, and u{approx}O(1) GeV. Second, there exist two types of Yukawa couplings with different strengths: the lepton-number conserving couplings h's and the lepton-number violating ones s's satisfying the condition in which the second are much smaller than the first ones: s<model, masses of the exotic quarks also have different scales, namely, the U exotic quark (q{sub U}=2/3) gains mass m{sub U}{approx_equal}700 GeV, while the D{sub {alpha}} exotic quarks (q{sub D{sub {alpha}}}=-1/3) have masses in the TeV scale: m{sub D{sub {alpha}}}(set-membership sign)10-80 TeV.

  19. Economic Analysis of Energy Crop Production in the U.S. - Location, Quantities, Price, and Impacts on Traditional Agricultural Crops

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, M.E.; De La Torre Ugarte, D.; Slinsky, S.; Graham, R.L.; Shapouri, H.; Ray, D.

    1998-10-04

    POLYSYS is used to estimate US locations where, for any given energy crop price, energy crop production can be economically competitive with conventional crops. POLYSYS is a multi-crop, multi-sector agricultural model developed and maintained by the University of Tennessee and used by the USDA-Economic Research Service. It includes 305 agricultural statistical districts (ASD) which can be aggregated to provide state, regional, and national information. POLYSYS is being modified to include switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow on all land suitable for their production. This paper summarizes the preliminary national level results of the POLYSYS analysis for selected energy crop prices for the year 2007 and presents the corresponding maps (for the same prices) of energy crop production locations by ASD. Summarized results include: (1) estimates of energy crop hectares (acres) and quantities (dry Mg, dry tons), (2) identification of traditional crops allocated to energy crop production and calculation of changes in their prices and hectares (acres) of production, and (3) changes in total net farm returns for traditional agricultural crops. The information is useful for identifying areas of the US where large quantities of lowest cost energy crops can most likely be produced.

  20. Economic analysis of alcohol production in Thailand and its implication on trade with Japan

    SciTech Connect

    Netayaraks, P.

    1983-01-01

    This research examined the economic feasibility of alcohol production from cassava, sugarcane, and sweet sorghum in 1981 and 1986, and evaluated the economic impact of alcohol production on agriculture output, prices and trade with Japan. Alcohol production from molasses and cassava would be competitive at current energy price levels. Sugarcane, in contrast, would be competitive only if energy prices are increased by 20%, but cassava would still be the preferred choice. The possibility of using cassava or sugarcane as energy feedstocks depends on specific location. Cassava would be used to produce alcohol in the northeast, while energy feedstocks for alcohol production in the central and eastern regions would be either cassava or sugarcane. Energy demand for alcohol as a blended fuel (20% alcohol and 80% gasoline) could be met if energy prices increase 5% above present levels. Complete substitution of alcohol for gasoline (pure fuel) would be possible only if energy prices are increased by 30%. Alcohol exports would be economically possible only after fuel domestic demand had been met. The impact of alcohol production on domestic crop demand, exports and prices depends on the potential alcohol demand and varies by crop.

  1. A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2014-06-01

    Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

  2. Technical-economic modelling of integrated water management: wastewater reuse in a French island.

    PubMed

    Xu, P; Valette, F; Brissaud, F; Fazio, A; Lazarova, V

    2001-01-01

    An integrated technical-economic model is used to address water management issues in the French island of Noirmoutier. The model simulates potable water production and supply, potable and non potable water demand and consumption, wastewater collection, treatment and disposal, water storage, transportation and reuse. A variety of water management scenarios is assessed through technical, economic and environmental evaluation. The scenarios include wastewater reclamation and reuse for agricultural and landscape irrigation as well as domestic non potable application, desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater for potable water supply. The study shows that, in Noirmoutier, wastewater reclamation and reuse for crop irrigation is the most cost-effective solution to the lack of water resources and the protection of sensitive environment. Some water management projects which are regarded as having less economic benefit in the short-term may become competitive in the future, as a result of tightened environmental policy, changed public attitudes and advanced water treatment technologies. The model provides an appropriate tool for water resources planning and management. PMID:11436805

  3. Economic, ecological, and social performance of conventional and organic broiler production in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Bokkers, E A M; de Boer, I J M

    2009-09-01

    1. In this study, we compared a conventional broiler production system keeping fast growing broilers with an organic broiler production system keeping slow growing broilers in the Netherlands, both managed by one person working a full time year (Full Time Equivalent, FTE). This comparison was based on a quantification of economic, ecological and social indicators. Indicators were quantified using scientific literature and national data sets. 2. The organic system performed better for the economic indicator net farm income per FTE than the conventional system. 3. Regarding ecological indicators, calculations showed a higher on-farm emission of ammonia per kg live weight for the organic system. Moreover, an organic system includes a higher risk for eutrophication per ha due to outdoor access. Emission of green house gasses, use of fossil fuels and use of land required for the production of one kg of live weight is higher for an organic than for a conventional system. This is mainly due to a lower feed conversion in organic production and use of organic feed. 4. The organic system performed better than the conventional system for the social indicators related to animal welfare time spent on walking, footpad lesions, mortality, and sound legs. Regarding the social indicator food safety was found that meat from an organic system contained less antibiotic residues and Salmonella contaminations but more Campylobacter contaminations than meat from a conventional system. 5. Changing from a conventional to an organic broiler production system, therefore, not only affects animal welfare, but also affects economic, ecological and other social issues. In this study, we ran into the situation that some information needed was lacking in literature and quantifications had to be based upon several sources. Therefore, an integrated on-farm assessment is needed, which can be used to develop a broiler production system that is economically profitable, ecologically sound, and

  4. Medico-economic evaluation of health products in the context of the Social Security Financing Act for 2012.

    PubMed

    Dervaux, Benoît; Baseilhac, Eric; Fagon, Jean-Yves; Ameye, Véronique; Angot, Pierre; Audry, Antoine; Becquemont, Laurent; Borel, Thomas; Cazeneuve, Béatrice; Courtois, Jocelyn; Detournay, Bruno; Favre, Pascal; Granger, Muriel; Josseran, Anne; Lassale, Catherine; Louvet, Olivier; Pinson, Jean; de Pouvourville, Gérard; Rochaix, Lise; Rumeau-Pichon, Catherine; de Saab, Rima; Schwarzinger, Mickaël; Sun, Aristide

    2013-01-01

    The participants in round table 6 of the Giens Workshops 2012 drafted recommendations based on the collective interpretation of important elements of the decree concerning the medico-economic evaluation of health products published a few days earlier (02 October 2012). The medico-economic evaluation (MEE), becomes an additional determinant for fixing the prices of health products by the Health products economic committee (Comité économique des produits de santé, CEPS) via the hierarchisation of treatment strategies, and thus modifies the market access conditions. Limiting the analysis to medicinal products and medical devices for which a major, important or moderate improvement in the medical service rendered (ASMR) or of the expected service (ASA) has been requested and presenting a significant budget impact on the Social Security expenses, excludes health products with ASMR or ASA with a lower level requested which often create complex price fixing problems and often have a major budget impact. This latter concept remains to be defined in detail. The MEE envisaged for the first registration must include the need to confirm or refute the initial hypotheses especially concerning the actual position in the therapeutic strategy at the time of renewal of the registration. For the first registration, the conventional reference to European prices guaranteeing a minimum price to innovative medicinal products, the medico-economic models submitted by the industry to the French Drug Authority (Haute autorité de santé, HAS) must be used to guide the compilation of new data to be requested at the time of the registration renewal and to negotiate the level of the discounts in the framework of a price-volume agreement, if applicable. The MEE will allow comparing the result of the analysis to the model hypothesis at the time of the renewal of the registration, which may contribute to the renegotiation (either up or down) of the price of health goods. The costs related to

  5. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  6. Economic Impacts of Climate Variability in South Africa and Development of Resource Prediction Models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2002-01-01

    An analysis of food and water supplies and economic growth in South Africa leads to the realization that climate variability plays a major role. Summer rainfall in the period of 1980-99 is closely associated (variance = 48%) with year-to-year changes in the gross domestic product (GDP). Given the strong links between climate and resources, statistical models are formulated to predict maize yield, river flows, and GDP directly. The most influential predictor is cloud depth (outgoing longwave radiation) in the tropical Indian Ocean in the preceding spring (September-November). Reduced monsoon convection is related to enhanced rainfall over South Africa in the following summer and greater economic prosperity during the subsequent year. Methodologies are outlined and risk-reduction strategies are reviewed. It is estimated that over U.S.$1 billion could be saved annually through uptake of timely and reliable long-range forecasts.

  7. Spatial pattern of diarrhea based on regional economic and environment by spatial autoregressive model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy

    2014-10-01

    The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.

  8. The economics of bootstrapping space industries - Development of an analytic computer model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldberg, A. H.; Criswell, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    A simple economic model of 'bootstrapping' industrial growth in space and on the Moon is presented. An initial space manufacturing facility (SMF) is assumed to consume lunar materials to enlarge the productive capacity in space. After reaching a predetermined throughput, the enlarged SMF is devoted to products which generate revenue continuously in proportion to the accumulated output mass (such as space solar power stations). Present discounted value and physical estimates for the general factors of production (transport, capital efficiency, labor, etc.) are combined to explore optimum growth in terms of maximized discounted revenues. It is found that 'bootstrapping' reduces the fractional cost to a space industry of transport off-Earth, permits more efficient use of a given transport fleet. It is concluded that more attention should be given to structuring 'bootstrapping' scenarios in which 'learning while doing' can be more fully incorporated in program analysis.

  9. Current Challenges in Health Economic Modeling of Cancer Therapies: A Research Inquiry

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Jeffrey D.; Foley, Kathleen A.; Russell, Mason W.

    2014-01-01

    Background The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. Objectives We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Methods Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. Discussion There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented

  10. A noticeable difference? Productivity costs related to paid and unpaid work in economic evaluations on expensive drugs.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Papenburg, Jocé; Tan, Siok Swan; Brouwer, Werner; Hakkaart, Leona

    2016-05-01

    Productivity costs can strongly impact cost-effectiveness outcomes. This study investigated the impact in the context of expensive hospital drugs. This study aimed to: (1) investigate the effect of productivity costs on cost-effectiveness outcomes, (2) determine whether economic evaluations of expensive drugs commonly include productivity costs related to paid and unpaid work, and (3) explore potential reasons for excluding productivity costs from the economic evaluation. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify economic evaluations of 33 expensive drugs. We analysed whether evaluations included productivity costs and whether inclusion or exclusion was related to the study population's age, health and national health economic guidelines. The impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes was assessed in studies that included productivity costs. Of 249 identified economic evaluations of expensive drugs, 22 (9 %) included productivity costs related to paid work. One study included unpaid productivity. Mostly, productivity cost exclusion could not be explained by the study population's age and health status, but national guidelines appeared influential. Productivity costs proved often highly influential. This study indicates that productivity costs in economic evaluations of expensive hospital drugs are commonly and inconsistently ignored in economic evaluations. This warrants caution in interpreting and comparing the results of these evaluations. PMID:25876834

  11. Biofuel production system with operation flexibility: Evaluation of economic and environmental performance under external disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kou, Nannan

    Biomass derived liquid hydrocarbon fuel (biofuel) has been accepted as an effective way to mitigate the reliance on petroleum and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. An increasing demand for second generation biofuels, produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and compatible with current infrastructure and vehicle technologies, addresses two major challenges faced by the current US transportation sector: energy security and global warming. However, biofuel production is subject to internal disturbances (feedstock supply and commodity market) and external factors (energy market). The biofuel industry has also heavily relied on government subsidy during the early development stages. In this dissertation, I investigate how to improve the economic and environmental performance of biorefineries (and biofuel plant), as well as enhance its survivability under the external disturbances. Three types of disturbance are considered: (1) energy market fluctuation, (2) subsidy policy uncertainty, and (3) extreme weather conditions. All three factors are basically volatile, dynamic, and even unpredictable, which makes them difficult to model and have been largely ignored to date. Instead, biofuel industry and biofuel research are intensively focused on improving feedstock conversion efficiency and capital cost efficiency while assuming these advancements alone will successfully generate higher profit and thus foster the biofuel industry. The collapse of the largest corn ethanol biofuel company, Verasun Energy, in 2008 calls into question this efficiency-driven approach. A detailed analysis has revealed that although the corn ethanol plants operated by Verasun adopted the more efficient (i.e. higher ethanol yield per bushel of corn and lower capital cost) dry-mill technology, they could not maintain a fair profit margin under fluctuating market condition which made ethanol production unprofitable. This is because dry-mill plant converts a single type of biomass feedstock (corn

  12. Local and Regional Economic Benefits from Forest Products Production Activities at the Savannah River Site: 1955-Present

    SciTech Connect

    Teeter, L.; Blake, J.I.

    2002-01-01

    SRS was established in 1951 as a nuclear materials production facility; however, decline in the defense mission budget at SRS has created a major economic impact on the community in the Central Savannah River Area. SRS has been offsetting these effects by producing revenue (80 million dollars to date) from the sale of forest products since 1955 primarily trees, but also pine straw. Revenue has been re-invested into the infrastructure development, restoration and management of natural resources. Total asset value of the forest-land has increased from 21 million to over 500 million dollars in the same period.

  13. Economic evaluation of a multicompartment bioreactor for ethanol production using in situ extraction of ethanol

    SciTech Connect

    Shuler, M.L.; Steinmeyer, D.E.; Togna, A.P.

    1991-12-31

    We have previously described a multicompartment reactor that can be used with yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) for ethanol production from a starch hydrolysate. By separating a solvent layer (tri-normal-butylphosphate, or TBP) from a cell layer, ethanol was extracted in situ and phase toxicity was prevented. Pressure cycling of the gas phase can be used to reduce significantly mass-transfer limitations that often limit entrapped-cell systems. A preliminary economic evaluation shows that with TBP the multicompartment reactor is generally more economically favorable at low volumes, and the traditional system is more favorable at high volumes. Improved solvents can increase economic viability at high volumes (10{sup 8} L/yr of 95% ethanol).

  14. Techno-economic analysis of advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Zhang, Yanan; Hu, Guiping

    2015-09-01

    This paper evaluates the economic feasibility of an integrated production pathway combining fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification. The conversion process is simulated with Aspen Plus® for a 2000 metric ton per day facility. Techno-economic analysis of this integrated pathway has been conducted. A total capital investment of $510 million has been estimated and the minimum fuel selling price (MSP) is $5.59 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis shows that the MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return, fuel yield, biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital investment. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that MSP for bio-oil gasification would be more than $6/gal with a probability of 0.24, which indicates this pathway is still at high risk with current economic and technical situation. PMID:25983227

  15. The environmental and economic impact of removing growth-enhancing technologies from U.S. beef production.

    PubMed

    Capper, J L; Hayes, D J

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the environmental and economic impact of withdrawing growth-enhancing technologies (GET) from the U.S. beef production system. A deterministic model based on the metabolism and nutrient requirements of the beef population was used to quantify resource inputs and waste outputs per 454 × 10(6) kg of beef. Two production systems were compared: one using GET (steroid implants, in-feed ionophores, in-feed hormones, and beta-adrenergic agonists) where approved by FDA at current adoption rates and the other without GET use. Both systems were modeled using characteristic management practices, population dynamics, and production data from U.S. beef systems. The economic impact and global trade and carbon implications of GET withdrawal were calculated based on feed savings. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production reduced productivity (growth rate and slaughter weight) and increased the population size required to produce 454 × 10(6) kg beef by 385 × 10(3) animals. Feedstuff and land use were increased by 2,830 × 10(3) t and 265 × 10(3) ha, respectively, by GET withdrawal, with 20,139 × 10(6) more liters of water being required to maintain beef production. Manure output increased by 1,799 × 10(3) t as a result of GET withdrawal, with an increase in carbon emissions of 714,515 t/454 × 10(6) kg beef. The projected increased costs of U.S. beef produced without GET resulted in the effective implementation of an 8.2% tax on beef production, leading to reduced global trade and competitiveness. To compensate for the increase in U.S. beef prices and maintain beef supply, it would be necessary to increase beef production in other global regions, with a projected increase in carbon emissions from deforestation, particularly in Brazil. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production would reduce both the economic and environmental sustainability of the industry. PMID:22665660

  16. A productivity model for parasitized, multibrooded songbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Knutson, M.G.

    2006-01-01

    We present an enhancement of a simulation model to predict annual productivity for Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla); the model includes effects of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism. We used species-specific data from the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa to parameterize the model as a case study. The simulation model predicted annual productivity of 2.03 ?? 1.60 SD for Wood Thrushes and 1.56 ?? 1.31 SD for American Redstarts. Our sensitivity analysis showed that high parasitism lowered Wood Thrush annual productivity more than American Redstart productivity, even though parasitism affected individual nests of redstarts more severely. Annual productivity predictions are valuable for habitat managers, but productivity is not easily obtained from field studies. Our model provides a useful means of integrating complex life history parameters to predict productivity for songbirds that experience nest parasitism. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

  17. Black Model Appearance and Product Evaluations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerin, Roger A.

    1979-01-01

    Examines a study of how human models affect the impression conveyed by an advertisement, particularly the effect of a Black model's physical characteristics on product evaluations among Black and White females.Results show that the physical appearance of the model influenced impressions of product quality and suitability for personal use. (JMF)

  18. An economic and ecological perspective of ethanol production from renewable agro waste: a review.

    PubMed

    Bhatia, Latika; Johri, Sonia; Ahmad, Rumana

    2012-01-01

    Agro-industrial wastes are generated during the industrial processing of agricultural products. These wastes are generated in large amounts throughout the year, and are the most abundant renewable resources on earth. Due to the large availability and composition rich in compounds that could be used in other processes, there is a great interest on the reuse of these wastes, both from economical and environmental view points. The economic aspect is based on the fact that such wastes may be used as low-cost raw materials for the production of other value-added compounds, with the expectancy of reducing the production costs. The environmental concern is because most of the agro-industrial wastes contain phenolic compounds and/or other compounds of toxic potential; which may cause deterioration of the environment when the waste is discharged to the nature. Although the production of bioethanol offers many benefits, more research is needed in the aspects like feedstock preparation, fermentation technology modification, etc., to make bioethanol more economically viable. PMID:23217124

  19. An economic and ecological perspective of ethanol production from renewable agro waste: a review

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Agro-industrial wastes are generated during the industrial processing of agricultural products. These wastes are generated in large amounts throughout the year, and are the most abundant renewable resources on earth. Due to the large availability and composition rich in compounds that could be used in other processes, there is a great interest on the reuse of these wastes, both from economical and environmental view points. The economic aspect is based on the fact that such wastes may be used as low-cost raw materials for the production of other value-added compounds, with the expectancy of reducing the production costs. The environmental concern is because most of the agro-industrial wastes contain phenolic compounds and/or other compounds of toxic potential; which may cause deterioration of the environment when the waste is discharged to the nature. Although the production of bioethanol offers many benefits, more research is needed in the aspects like feedstock preparation, fermentation technology modification, etc., to make bioethanol more economically viable. PMID:23217124

  20. Techno-Economic Analysis of Liquid Fuel Production from Woody Biomass via Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) and Upgrading

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Yunhua; Biddy, Mary J.; Jones, Susanne B.; Elliott, Douglas C.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2014-09-15

    A series of experimental work was conducted to convert woody biomass to gasoline and diesel range products via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and catalytic hydroprocessing. Based on the best available test data, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was developed for a large scale woody biomass based HTL and upgrading system to evaluate the feasibility of this technology. In this system, 2000 dry metric ton per day woody biomass was assumed to be converted to bio-oil in hot compressed water and the bio-oil was hydrotreated and/or hydrocracked to produce gasoline and diesel range liquid fuel. Two cases were evaluated: a stage-of-technology (SOT) case based on the tests results, and a goal case considering potential improvements based on the SOT case. Process simulation models were developed and cost analysis was implemented based on the performance results. The major performance results included final products and co-products yields, raw materials consumption, carbon efficiency, and energy efficiency. The overall efficiency (higher heating value basis) was 52% for the SOT case and 66% for the goal case. The production cost, with a 10% internal rate of return and 2007 constant dollars, was estimated to be $1.29 /L for the SOT case and $0.74 /L for the goal case. The cost impacts of major improvements for moving from the SOT to the goal case were evaluated and the assumption of reducing the organics loss to the water phase lead to the biggest reduction in the production cost. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the final products yields had the largest impact on the production cost compared to other parameters. Plant size analysis demonstrated that the process was economically attractive if the woody biomass feed rate was over 1,500 dry tonne/day, the production cost was competitive with the then current petroleum-based gasoline price.

  1. Complementarity and conflict among population and other policies: specifying an economic-demographic model for a developing country.

    PubMed

    Mariano, R S

    1993-01-01

    The demographic and economic model illustrates the links between demographic and socioeconomic factors and government policy for developing countries. The operating model attempts to balance practical realities with manageability. The Philippines was used to show how the model operates. Demographic planners should be involved in the early development stages of policy development. The sociodemographic and economic framework by Orbeta has identified population outcomes affecting the economic system and the population system (fertility, mortality, and migration), both of which affect economic outcomes. The Economic system is comprised of consumption, investments, fiscal budgets, money supply, international trade and finance, labor use, and land use, which interact with private and public expenditures, employment, educational status, health status, housing, and environmental quality. A two way interrelationship exists between the demographic and socioeconomic variables. The model assumes that development outcomes affect the number, composition, and location of individuals. The application of the model to the Philippines used ordinary least squares and two stage least squares for estimation pertaining to the real sector, the fiscal sector, the financial sector, the external sector, and the price-wage-employment sector. The model combines classical, Keynesian, structuralist, and monetarist approaches. Domestic production is composed of agriculture, industry, and services in supply and demand equations. Expenditures are composed of personal consumption, gross domestic capital formation, exports, imports, and government expenditures. Further details of the model are described by Klein et al. and Mariano and Constantino. PMID:12290518

  2. Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products

    PubMed Central

    Cristelli, Matthieu; Gabrielli, Andrea; Tacchella, Andrea; Caldarelli, Guido; Pietronero, Luciano

    2013-01-01

    We investigate a recent methodology we have proposed to extract valuable information on the competitiveness of countries and complexity of products from trade data. Standard economic theories predict a high level of specialization of countries in specific industrial sectors. However, a direct analysis of the official databases of exported products by all countries shows that the actual situation is very different. Countries commonly considered as developed ones are extremely diversified, exporting a large variety of products from very simple to very complex. At the same time countries generally considered as less developed export only the products also exported by the majority of countries. This situation calls for the introduction of a non-monetary and non-income-based measure for country economy complexity which uncovers the hidden potential for development and growth. The statistical approach we present here consists of coupled non-linear maps relating the competitiveness/fitness of countries to the complexity of their products. The fixed point of this transformation defines a metrics for the fitness of countries and the complexity of products. We argue that the key point to properly extract the economic information is the non-linearity of the map which is necessary to bound the complexity of products by the fitness of the less competitive countries exporting them. We present a detailed comparison of the results of this approach directly with those of the Method of Reflections by Hidalgo and Hausmann, showing the better performance of our method and a more solid economic, scientific and consistent foundation. PMID:23940633

  3. Climate Impact and Economic Feasibility of Solar Thermochemical Jet Fuel Production.

    PubMed

    Falter, Christoph; Batteiger, Valentin; Sizmann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Solar thermochemistry presents a promising option for the efficient conversion of H2O and CO2 into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy. To explore the potential of this fuel production pathway, the climate impact and economic performance are analyzed. Key drivers for the economic and ecological performance are thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, the level of solar irradiation, operation and maintenance, and the initial investment in the fuel production plant. For the baseline case of a solar tower concentrator with CO2 capture from air, jet fuel production costs of 2.23 €/L and life cycle greenhouse gas (LC GHG) emissions of 0.49 kgCO2-equiv/L are estimated. Capturing CO2 from a natural gas combined cycle power plant instead of the air reduces the production costs by 15% but leads to LC GHG emissions higher than that of conventional jet fuel. Favorable assumptions for all involved process steps (30% thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, 3000 kWh/(m(2) a) solar irradiation, low CO2 and heliostat costs) result in jet fuel production costs of 1.28 €/L at LC GHG emissions close to zero. Even lower production costs may be achieved if the commercial value of oxygen as a byproduct is considered. PMID:26641878

  4. Information models of software productivity - Limits on productivity growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1992-01-01

    Research into generalized information-metric models of software process productivity establishes quantifiable behavior and theoretical bounds. The models establish a fundamental mathematical relationship between software productivity and the human capacity for information traffic, the software product yield (system size), information efficiency, and tool and process efficiencies. An upper bound is derived that quantifies average software productivity and the maximum rate at which it may grow. This bound reveals that ultimately, when tools, methodologies, and automated assistants have reached their maximum effective state, further improvement in productivity can only be achieved through increasing software reuse. The reuse advantage is shown not to increase faster than logarithmically in the number of reusable features available. The reuse bound is further shown to be somewhat dependent on the reuse policy: a general 'reuse everything' policy can lead to a somewhat slower productivity growth than a specialized reuse policy.

  5. A hydro-economic modelling framework for optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña-Haro, Salvador; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Sahuquillo, Andrés

    2009-06-01

    SummaryA hydro-economic modelling framework is developed for determining optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture. A holistic optimization model determines the spatial and temporal fertilizer application rate that maximizes the net benefits in agriculture constrained by the quality requirements in groundwater at various control sites. Since emissions (nitrogen loading rates) are what can be controlled, but the concentrations are the policy targets, we need to relate both. Agronomic simulations are used to obtain the nitrate leached, while numerical groundwater flow and solute transport simulation models were used to develop unit source solutions that were assembled into a pollutant concentration response matrix. The integration of the response matrix in the constraints of the management model allows simulating by superposition the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentration over time at different points of interest throughout the aquifer resulting from multiple pollutant sources distributed over time and space. In this way, the modelling framework relates the fertilizer loads with the nitrate concentration at the control sites. The benefits in agriculture were determined through crop prices and crop production functions. This research aims to contribute to the ongoing policy process in the Europe Union (the Water Framework Directive) providing a tool for analyzing the opportunity cost of measures for reducing nitrogen loadings and assessing their effectiveness for maintaining groundwater nitrate concentration within the target levels. The management model was applied to a hypothetical groundwater system. Optimal solutions of fertilizer use to problems with different initial conditions, planning horizons, and recovery times were determined. The illustrative example shows the importance of the location of the pollution sources in relation to the control sites, and how both the selected planning horizon and the target recovery time can

  6. System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2storage in gas reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2006-03-02

    One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhousegases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrialsources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers ordepleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improveunderstanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO2storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health,safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost ofCO2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasisto date on system-level analyses of geological CO2 storage that considergeological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailedprocess models to representations of engineering components andassociated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop asystem-level model for geological CO2 storage, including CO2 capture andseparation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, andCO2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailedreservoir simulations of CO2 injection into a gas reservoir and relatedenhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associatedenvironmental impacts are also considered. The platform for thesystem-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim TechnologyGroup; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system modelfocuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration withenhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. Thereservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO2.Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhancedgas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits ofCO2 injection.

  7. Quantity and economic importance of nine selected by-products used in California dairy rations.

    PubMed

    Grasser, L A; Fadel, J G; Garnett, I; DePeters, E J

    1995-04-01

    Food processing representatives, brokers, nutritionists, livestock producers, and trade associations were surveyed to quantify 9 by-products used for feeding livestock during 1992 in California. The commodities were almond hulls, dried beet pulp, wet brewers grains, wet citrus pulp, pressed citrus pulp, wet corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, whole cottonseed, and rice bran. The 9 by-products contributed over 2.5 million tonnes and about 27% of the total feed concentrate moved within California during 1992. Market value of these 9 by-products was almost .25 billion dollars. Whole cottonseed accounted for about 31% of the total tonnage of these 9 by-products and provided about 66% of the total CP and 53% of the total NEL of these 9 by-products. The by-products were more valuable as energy sources than CP sources compared with NEL from corn and CP from soybean meal, respectively. Calculations of milk production, based on the CP content or NEL content of the by-products, showed that these 9 by-products could have contributed sufficient CP or NEL for over 31% of the milk produced in California during 1992. Ration formulations demonstrated that the economic value of by-products changed with feedstuffs available and, in general, would be used in rations over a range of market prices. PMID:7790589

  8. Cleaner production in the ammonia-soda industry: an ecological and economic study.

    PubMed

    Kasikowski, T; Buczkowski, R; Lemanowska, E

    2004-12-01

    Five methods to reduce the negative influence of soda ash factories on the natural environment are presented: 1. obtaining calcium-magnesium phosphates by treating the suspension from raw brine purification with orthophosphoric acid (H(3)PO(4)), 2. production of precipitated chalk from soda processing waste, 3. production of gypsum and semi-brine, 4. desulphurisation of fume gases from the factory power plant, 5. utilization of distiller waste. The tests, accomplished on a laboratory scale, showed the high efficiency of these methods. Economic analysis has proved that only four out of the five presented processes can have a positive financial effect on soda ash factories, as well as being well justified economically. The value of two of the innovations presented is confirmed by their implementation in factories. PMID:15531392

  9. Economic and kinetic studies of the biological production of farm energy and chemicals from biomass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaddy, J. L.

    1981-08-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of producing farm energy from cellulosic residues is investigated. The system has the capacity to produce 1300 CF of biogas and 180 kwh per day, using four parallel batch anaerobic digesters which are agitated mechanically and heated with waste heat from the generator. This system utilizes native grasses as the raw material. Laboratory reactors are operated to determine the proper innoculation ratio for starting batch cultures with cellulosic raw materials. Procedures for startup and operation of batch digestion systems are presented. Energy and economic analyses of the operation of the test unit are performed. The fertilizer potential of anaerobic digester sludge (from agricultural residues) is determined. The feasibility of separating the stages of anaerobic digestion, the production of acetic and propionic acids by the microorganism Propionibacterium acidi-propionici, the production of methane from acid hydrolyzates, and the kinetics of the continuous digestion of corn stover are studied.

  10. Economic assessment of environmental impact in the course of oil field development and production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsibulnikova, M. R.; Kupriyanova, O. S.; Strelnikova, A. B.

    2015-11-01

    The article considers the variety of impacts that oil exploration and production operations have on the environment at different stages of the process. To provide accurate economic assessment, an oil field development project was designed, with various development options. These options being analyzed, the strategy with the minimal environmental impact was identified. This has allowed preparation of a guideline on how to prevent deterioration of the environment and to reduce the negative environmental impact

  11. Ethanol production in southwestern New York: technical and economic feasibility. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-01-01

    Based upon the analysis conducted for this study, the development of centralized ethanol conversion facilities in the Steuben and Allegany Counties is likely to be commercially feasible if either locally produced cheese whey and/or imported corn are used as feedstocks. Development is shown to be profitable under a broad range of potential economic conditions and technical considerations. Four plant designs varying in annual production capacity from 1.675 to 27.5 million gallons of ethanol (and utilizing alternative conversion technologies and feedstocks) are investigated. In general, all of the various plant sizes investigated are economically viable. Although economic profitability is enhanced by the existence of federal subsidies, in the form of $0.40 per gallon from federal gasoline tax rebates, energy investment tax credits and low interest loans, a public subsidy is not necessary, under most conditions, to ensure the economic feasibility of any of the plant design investigated. In all cases, a by-product in the form of an animal feed is produced, thereby generating additional revenue for the conversion facility and adding to the likelihood of commercial feasibility. In the case of the corn/whey plant, the by-product takes the form of a distillers dried grain. In the case of the whey plants, it takes the form of a high mineral, medium protein feed supplement for low and moderate producing dairy cattle. Both have a ready market in the study region. Fermenting of deproteinized whey to produce ethanol and drying the resulting distillation slops for animal feed completely utilizes the original cheese whey. The techniques developed in this study produce three valuable products and leave no residual requiring disposal.

  12. Increasing Feedstock Production for Biofuels: Economic Drivers, Environmental Implications, and the Role of Research

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2009-10-27

    The Biomass Research and Development Board (Board) commissioned an economic analysis of feedstocks to produce biofuels. The Board seeks to inform investments in research and development needed to expand biofuel production. This analysis focuses on feedstocks; other interagency teams have projects underway for other parts of the biofuel sector (e.g., logistics). The analysis encompasses feedstocks for both conventional and advanced biofuels from agriculture and forestry sources.

  13. A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunter, Frank R.

    2012-01-01

    The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a…

  14. Big Think: A Model for Critical Inquiry in Economics Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGoldrick, KimMarie; Garnett, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Economic educators often profess the goal of teaching our students to "think like economists." Since Siegfried and colleagues (1991) coined this phrase, its meaning has been interpreted as a focus on analytical concepts and methods of economics as opposed to the broader goal of preparing students for independent, critical thought in the…

  15. Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

  16. Geologic and economic case histories of Upper Devonian natural gas production in Pennsylvania

    SciTech Connect

    Mangini, K.N.

    1988-08-01

    The Upper Devonian gas sands of western Pennsylvania have been commercially exploited since the turn of the century. The economic success of this exploitation may be attributed to the existence of multiply-stacked or en echelon reservoirs. The serendipity of development drilling coupled with multiple reservoirs made drilling for Upper Devonian gas very attractive to operators. As a result of many years of concentrated drilling, a current shortage of Upper Devonian developmental prospects exists and is forcing operators to explore nearshore more sporadically deposited Devonian sand reservoirs. The depositional modeling of developed areas can, however, help identify new prospective areas for exploration and development and increase economic success.

  17. Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

  18. Modeling The Economics Of PACS: What Is Important?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saarinen, Allan O.; Haynor, David R.; Loop, John W.; Johnson, Linda; Russell, John; Mitchell, Kate; Nemerever, Marilyn

    1989-05-01

    Picture Archive and Communications Systems (PACS) represent a significant long term capital investment for radiology departments and hospitals. Many radiology departments want to acquire this new imaging technology, but they are still concerned about the cost of these systems. While a few studies have tried to quantify the costs and benefits of PACS, these studies have been limited in scope. The University of Washington is evaluating a Digital Imaging Network System (DINS) and PACS for the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command. Part of this evaluation includes developing a comprehensive cost model of PACS for one of the military's large health care facilities (a 400 bed hospital). The paper summarizes the methodology and multi-layered spreadsheet model developed at the University to forecast the costs and potential cost savings this health care facility might accrue if a hospital wide PACS is installed and film is eliminated. It also discusses the many important assumptions made in the model. A sensitivity analysis of the model is also presented. The model indicates that keeping PACS maintenance costs down is particularly critical to the cost effectiveness of PACS. That is, the film cost savings attributed to PACS can be largely offset by PACS equipment maintenance cost. The cost effectiveness of PACS will also hinge upon whether a number of intangible benefits, such as referring physician and support staff productivity gains can be attributed to PACS. This model also suggests that the pay back period for a hospital wide PACS will vary significantly dependent upon the mix of tangible versus intangible cost savings incorporated into the modeling process.

  19. A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMIC MODEL OF ALCOHOL ADVERTISING AND PRICE

    PubMed Central

    SAFFER, HENRY; DAVE, DHAVAL; GROSSMAN, MICHAEL

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper presents a new empirical study of the effects of televised alcohol advertising and alcohol price on alcohol consumption. A novel feature of this study is that the empirical work is guided by insights from behavioral economic theory. Unlike the theory used in most prior studies, this theory predicts that restriction on alcohol advertising on TV would be more effective in reducing consumption for individuals with high consumption levels but less effective for individuals with low consumption levels. The estimation work employs data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the empirical model is estimated with quantile regressions. The results show that advertising has a small positive effect on consumption and that this effect is relatively larger at high consumption levels. The continuing importance of alcohol taxes is also supported. Education is employed as a proxy for self-regulation, and the results are consistent with this assumption. The key conclusion is that restrictions on alcohol advertising on TV would have a small negative effect on drinking, and this effect would be larger for heavy drinkers. PMID:25919364

  20. Coupled economic-coastline modeling with suckers and free riders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Zachary C.; McNamara, Dylan E.; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya

    2013-06-01

    erosion is a natural trend along most sandy coastlines. Humans often respond to shoreline erosion with beach nourishment to maintain coastal property values. Locally extending the shoreline through nourishment alters alongshore sediment transport and changes shoreline dynamics in adjacent coastal regions. If left unmanaged, sandy coastlines can have spatially complex or simple patterns of erosion due to the relationship of large-scale morphology and the local wave climate. Using a numerical model that simulates spatially decentralized and locally optimal nourishment decisions characteristic of much of U.S. East Coast beach management, we find that human erosion intervention does not simply reflect the alongshore erosion pattern. Spatial interactions generate feedbacks in economic and physical variables that lead to widespread emergence of "free riders" and "suckers" with subsequent inequality in the alongshore distribution of property value. Along cuspate coastlines, such as those found along the U.S. Southeast Coast, these long-term property value differences span an order of magnitude. Results imply that spatially decentralized management of nourishment can lead to property values that are divorced from spatial erosion signals; this management approach is unlikely to be optimal.

  1. A Behavioral Economic Model of Alcohol Advertising and Price.

    PubMed

    Saffer, Henry; Dave, Dhaval; Grossman, Michael

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents a new empirical study of the effects of televised alcohol advertising and alcohol price on alcohol consumption. A novel feature of this study is that the empirical work is guided by insights from behavioral economic theory. Unlike the theory used in most prior studies, this theory predicts that restriction on alcohol advertising on TV would be more effective in reducing consumption for individuals with high consumption levels but less effective for individuals with low consumption levels. The estimation work employs data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the empirical model is estimated with quantile regressions. The results show that advertising has a small positive effect on consumption and that this effect is relatively larger at high consumption levels. The continuing importance of alcohol taxes is also supported. Education is employed as a proxy for self-regulation, and the results are consistent with this assumption. The key conclusion is that restrictions on alcohol advertising on TV would have a small negative effect on drinking, and this effect would be larger for heavy drinkers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25919364

  2. Current technologies, economics, and perspectives for 2,5-dimethylfuran production from biomass-derived intermediates.

    PubMed

    Saha, Basudeb; Abu-Omar, Mahdi M

    2015-04-13

    Since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a perspective article that described the potential of the top ten biomass-derived platform chemicals as petroleum replacements for high-value commodity and specialty chemicals, researchers around the world have been motivated to develop technologies for the conversion of biomass and biomass-derived intermediates into chemicals and fuels. Among several biorefinery processes, the conversion of biomass carbohydrates into 2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF) has received significant attention because of its low oxygen content, high energy content, and high octane value. DMF can further serve as a petroleum-replacement, biorenewable feedstock for the production of p-xylene (pX). In this review, we aim specifically to present a concise and up-to-date analysis of DMF production technologies with a critical discussion on catalytic systems, mechanistic insight, and process economics, which includes sensitivity analysis, so that more effective catalysts can be designed. Special emphasis has been given to bifunctional catalysts that improve DMF yields and selectivity and the synergistic effect of the bifunctional sites. Process economics for the current processes and the scope for further improvement are discussed. It is anticipated that the chemistry detailed in this review will guide researchers to develop more practical catalytic processes to enable the economic production of bio-based DMF. Processes for the upgrade of DMF to pX are also described. PMID:25703838

  3. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  4. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  5. Market disruption, cascading effects, and economic recovery:a life-cycle hypothesis model.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.

    2004-11-01

    This paper builds upon previous work [Sprigg and Ehlen, 2004] by introducing a bond market into a model of production and employment. The previous paper described an economy in which households choose whether to enter the labor and product markets based on wages and prices. Firms experiment with prices and employment levels to maximize their profits. We developed agent-based simulations using Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate that multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment, but also suffer from market noise stemming from consumer churn. In this paper we introduce a bond market as a mechanism for household savings. We simulate an economy of continuous overlapping generations in which each household grows older in the course of the simulation and continually revises its target level of savings according to a life-cycle hypothesis. Households can seek employment, earn income, purchase goods, and contribute to savings until they reach the mandatory retirement age; upon retirement households must draw from savings in order to purchase goods. This paper demonstrates the simultaneous convergence of product, labor, and savings markets to their calculated equilibria, and simulates how a disruption to a productive sector will create cascading effects in all markets. Subsequent work will use similar models to simulate how disruptions, such as terrorist attacks, would interplay with consumer confidence to affect financial markets and the broader economy.

  6. Biofuels and Their Co-Products as Livestock Feed: Global Economic and Environmental Implications.

    PubMed

    Popp, József; Harangi-Rákos, Mónika; Gabnai, Zoltán; Balogh, Péter; Antal, Gabriella; Bai, Attila

    2016-01-01

    This review studies biofuel expansion in terms of competition between conventional and advanced biofuels based on bioenergy potential. Production of advanced biofuels is generally more expensive than current biofuels because products are not yet cost competitive. What is overlooked in the discussion about biofuel is the contribution the industry makes to the global animal feed supply and land use for cultivation of feedstocks. The global ethanol industry produces 44 million metric tonnes of high-quality feed, however, the co-products of biodiesel production have a moderate impact on the feed market contributing to just 8-9 million tonnes of protein meal output a year. By economically displacing traditional feed ingredients co-products from biofuel production are an important and valuable component of the biofuels sector and the global feed market. The return of co-products to the feed market has agricultural land use (and GHG emissions) implications as well. The use of co-products generated from grains and oilseeds can reduce net land use by 11% to 40%. The proportion of global cropland used for biofuels is currently some 2% (30-35 million hectares). By adding co-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area. PMID:26938514

  7. Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.

    2008-12-01

    The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource

  8. H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

    2008-09-01

    The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

  9. Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from rice straw by liquid-state fermentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidayata, M. H. M.; Salleh, S. F.; Riayatsyahb, T. M. I.; Aditiyac, H. B.; Mahliaa, T. M. I.; Shamsuddina, A. H.

    2016-03-01

    Renewable energy is the latest approach of the Malaysian government in an effort to find sustainable alternative energy sources and to fulfill the ever increasing energy demand. Being a country that thrives in the service and agricultural sector, bioethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass presents itself as a promising option. However, the lack of technical practicality and complexity in the operation system hinder it from being economically viable. Hence, this research acquired multiple case studies in order to provide an insight on the process involved and its implication on production as well as to obtain a cost analysis of bioethanol production. The energy input and cost of three main components of the bioethanol production which are the collection, logistics, and pretreatment of rice straw were evaluated extensively. The theoretical bioethanol yield and conversion efficiency obtained were 250 L/t and 60% respectively. The findings concluded that bioethanol production from rice straw is currently not economically feasible in Malaysia’s market due to lack of efficiency in the pretreatment phase and overbearing logistics and pretreatment costs. This work could serve as a reference to future studies of biofuel commercialization in Malaysia.

  10. Acetone-butanol-ethanol fermentation of corn stover: current production methods, economic viability and commercial use.

    PubMed

    Baral, Nawa R; Slutzky, Lauren; Shah, Ajay; Ezeji, Thaddeus C; Cornish, Katrina; Christy, Ann

    2016-03-01

    Biobutanol is a next-generation liquid biofuel with properties akin to those of gasoline. There is a widespread effort to commercialize biobutanol production from agricultural residues, such as corn stover, which do not compete with human and animal foods. This pursuit is backed by extensive government mandates to expand alternative energy sources. This review provides an overview of research on biobutanol production using corn stover feedstock. Structural composition, pretreatment, sugar yield (following pretreatment and hydrolysis) and generation of lignocellulose-derived microbial inhibitory compounds (LDMICs) from corn stover are discussed. The review also discusses different Clostridium species and strains employed for biobutanol production from corn stover-derived sugars with respect to solvent yields, tolerance to LDMICs and in situ solvent recovery (integrated fermentation). Further, the economics of cellulosic biobutanol production are highlighted and compared to corn starch-derived ethanol and gasoline. As discussed herein, the economic competitiveness of biobutanol production from corn stover largely depends on feedstock processing and fermentation process design. PMID:26872494

  11. Economic evaluation of technology for a new generation biofuel production using wastes.

    PubMed

    Koutinas, Athanasios; Kanellaki, Maria; Bekatorou, Argyro; Kandylis, Panagiotis; Pissaridi, Katerina; Dima, Agapi; Boura, Konstantina; Lappa, Katerina; Tsafrakidou, Panagiota; Stergiou, Panagiota-Yiolanda; Foukis, Athanasios; Gkini, Olga A; Papamichael, Emmanuel M

    2016-01-01

    An economic evaluation of an integrated technology for industrial scale new generation biofuel production using whey, vinasse, and lignocellulosic biomass as raw materials is reported. Anaerobic packed-bed bioreactors were used for organic acids production using initially synthetic media and then wastes. Butyric, lactic and acetic acid were predominately produced from vinasse, whey, and cellulose, respectively. Mass balance was calculated for a 16,000L daily production capacity. Liquid-liquid extraction was applied for recovery of the organic acids using butanol-1 as an effective extraction solvent which serves also as the alcohol for the subsequent enzyme-catalyzed esterification. The investment needed for the installation of the factory was estimated to about 1.7million€ with depreciation excepted at about 3months. For cellulosics, the installation investment was estimated to be about 7-fold higher with depreciation at about 1.5years. The proposed technology is an alternative trend in biofuel production. PMID:26492169

  12. Modeling Sustainability in Product Development and Commercialization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Robert C.; Rafinejad, Dariush

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors present the framework of a model that integrates strategic product development decisions with the product's impact on future conditions of resources and the environment. The impact of a product on stocks of nonrenewable sources and sinks is linked in a feedback loop to the cost of manufacturing and using the product…

  13. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  14. Novel technologies for enhanced production of ethanol: impact of high productivity on process economics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In these studies Saccharomyces cerevisiae NRRL Y-566 was used to produce ethanol from a concentrated glucose (250-300 gL-1) solution. When fermentation media were supplemented with CaCO3 and CaCl2, ethanol concentrations, yield, and productivities were improved significantly. In control batch fermen...

  15. Economic impact of climate

    SciTech Connect

    Eddy, A.

    1980-05-01

    This volume summarizes the first two of a series of six workshops to investigate the economic impact of climate. These two workshops dealt mainly with input-output and econometric models. Potential for introducing weather and climate variables was discussed. A listing of topics and authors follows: Economic Models and the Identification of Climatic Effects on Economic Processes, Stan Johnson; Economic Modeling, Jim Morgan; Econometric Modeling: State of the Arts for the US Agricultural Industry, Abner Womack; Regional Input-Output Models: Understanding Their Application, Charles Lamphear; Measuring Regional Economic Impact Associated With Unfavorable Conditions During Crop Production Periods: A concept Paper, Charles Lamphear; Possible Applications of Input-Output Models in Climatic Impact Analysis, William Cooter; and Aspects of Input-Output Analysis Pertinent to Climate-Economic Modeling: Three Short Notes, William Cooter. (PSB)

  16. Sustainability evaluation of Sicily's lemon and orange production: an energy, economic and environmental analysis.

    PubMed

    Pergola, M; D'Amico, M; Celano, G; Palese, A M; Scuderi, A; Di Vita, G; Pappalardo, G; Inglese, P

    2013-10-15

    The island of Sicily has a long standing tradition in citrus growing. We evaluated the sustainability of orange and lemon orchards, under organic and conventional farming, using an energy, environmental and economic analysis of the whole production cycle by using a life cycle assessment approach. These orchard systems differ only in terms of a few of the inputs used and the duration of the various agricultural operations. The quantity of energy consumption in the production cycle was calculated by multiplying the quantity of inputs used by the energy conversion factors drawn from the literature. The production costs were calculated considering all internal costs, including equipment, materials, wages, and costs of working capital. The performance of the two systems (organic and conventional), was compared over a period of fifty years. The results, based on unit surface area (ha) production, prove the stronger sustainability of the organic over the conventional system, both in terms of energy consumption and environmental impact, especially for lemons. The sustainability of organic systems is mainly due to the use of environmentally friendly crop inputs (fertilizers, not use of synthetic products, etc.). In terms of production costs, the conventional management systems were more expensive, and both systems were heavily influenced by wages. In terms of kg of final product, the organic production system showed better environmental and energy performances. PMID:23850762

  17. Techno-economic and Fluid Dynamics Analysis for Growing Microalgae with the Intent of Producing Biofuel Using a System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raffaeli, Leah R.

    Techno-economic and systems studies on microalgal growth scenarios to date are abbreviated and missing a number of important variables. By including these variables in a detailed model integrating biology, chemistry, engineering, and financial aspects, a more defined systems analysis is possible. Through optimizing the model productivity based on the resulting net profit, the system analysis results in a more accurate assessment of environmental and economic sustainability of specific algal growth scenarios. Photobioreactor algal growth scenario optimization in the system model has resulted in realistic engineering design requirements based on algal growth requirements and fluid dynamics analysis. Results show feasibility for photobioreactor growth scenarios to be economically sustainable when co-products are included, but definite technological advancements and productivity improvements must be made. The main factors inhibiting a cost effective photobioreactor growth scenario are culture density, temperature, and lighting distribution for solar illuminated photobioreactors, and lighting cost for artificially illuminated photobioreactors. Open pond algal growth scenarios do not show any prospect of economic or environmental sustainability with current technology due to the large amount of surface area required, inefficient water use, and low culture density. All algal growth scenarios are inferior to petro-diesel regarding energy inputs, carbon emissions, and environmental sustainability. No algal growth scenarios analyzed in this study meet the U.S. requirement of biofuel emitting at least 20% less carbon emissions than diesel from crude oil.

  18. Addressing Hydro-economic Modeling Limitations - A Limited Foresight Sacramento Valley Model and an Open-source Modeling Platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harou, J. J.; Hansen, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    Increased scarcity of world water resources is inevitable given the limited supply and increased human pressures. The idea that "some scarcity is optimal" must be accepted for rational resource use and infrastructure management decisions to be made. Hydro-economic systems models are unique at representing the overlap of economic drivers, socio-political forces and distributed water resource systems. They demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation and integrated flexible system management. Further improvement of models, quality control practices and software will be needed for these academic policy tools to become accepted into mainstream water resource practice. Promising features include: calibration methods, limited foresight optimization formulations, linked simulation-optimization approaches (e.g. embedding pre-existing calibrated simulation models), spatial groundwater models, stream-aquifer interactions and stream routing, etc.. Conventional user-friendly decision support systems helped spread simulation models on a massive scale. Hydro-economic models must also find a means to facilitate construction, distribution and use. Some of these issues and model features are illustrated with a hydro-economic optimization model of the Sacramento Valley. Carry-over storage value functions are used to limit hydrologic foresight of the multi- period optimization model. Pumping costs are included in the formulation by tracking regional piezometric head of groundwater sub-basins. To help build and maintain this type of network model, an open-source water management modeling software platform is described and initial project work is discussed. The objective is to generically facilitate the connection of models, such as those developed in a modeling environment (GAMS, MatLab, Octave, "), to a geographic user interface (drag and drop node-link network) and a database (topology, parameters and time series). These features aim to incrementally move hydro- economic models

  19. Energy and economical comparison of possible cultures for a total-integrated on-field biodiesel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allesina, G.; Pedrazzi, S.; Tebianian, S.; Muscio, A.; Tartarini, P.

    2014-04-01

    This work is aimed at investigating the energy conversion effectiveness and the economical advantages of a total integrated solution for on-field biodiesel and electrical energy production. The system proposed here is based on the synergy of four sub-systems: a seed press for oil production, a downdraft gasifier, a biodiesel conversion plant and a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC). Two possible culture rotations, suggested by literature review, were analyzed here from economical and energy balance points of view. Both the rotations were composed of oleaginous crops only, therefore the seeds collected from the different cultures were pressed, then the protein cake produced in the process was gasified in the downdraft reactor. The gasification process was modeled here, and its output suggested that, for a precise number of hectares, the syngas obtained through the cake gasification was enough for producing methanol required for oil-biodiesel conversion and feeding a 10-kW SOFC. The purge line in the methanol reactor was used in the SOFC as well. The system was simulated using ASPEN PLUSTM and MATLABTM codes. Results of the SOFC and gasifier models underlined the capability of the fuel cell to work with this particular system, furthermore the whole system analysis suggested that the surface required for sustainability of the processes is a function of the rotation choice. In both cases little surfaces ranging from 11 to 21 hectares were found to be enough for system self-sustainability with a ROI under 7 years in all the operating conditions analyzed.

  20. Techno-economic analysis of biocatalytic processes for production of alkene epoxides.

    PubMed

    Borole, Abhijeet P; Davison, Brian H

    2007-04-01

    A techno-economic analysis of two different bioprocesses was conducted, one for the conversion of propylene to propylene oxide (PO) and other for conversion of styrene to styrene epoxide (SO). The first process was a lipase-mediated chemo-enzymatic reaction, whereas the second one was a one-step enzymatic process using chloroperoxidase. The PO produced through the chemo-enzymatic process is a racemic product, whereas the latter process (based on chloroperoxidase) produces an enantio-pure product. The former process thus falls under the category of high-volume commodity chemical (PO); whereas the latter is a low-volume, high-value product (SO).A simulation of the process was conducted using the bioprocess engineering software SuperPro Designer v6.0 (Intelligen, Inc., Scotch Plains, NJ) to determine the economic feasibility of the process. The purpose of the exercise was to compare biocatalytic processes with existing chemical processes for production of alkene expoxides. The results show that further improvements are needed in improving biocatalyst stability to make these bioprocesses competitive with chemical processes. PMID:18478407

  1. The economic burden of lost productivity due to migraine headache: a specific worksite analysis.

    PubMed

    Burton, Wayne N; Conti, Daniel J; Chen, Chin-Yu; Schultz, Alyssa B; Edington, Dee W

    2002-06-01

    Large, epidemiologic survey studies have established that migraine headaches affect approximately 6% of men and 18% of women in the United States and that the condition peaks during the prime working years (25 to 55 years of age). The consequent economic burden experienced by employers is substantial. The majority of this economic burden is realized by employers in terms of lost productivity, a combination of costs attributable to absenteeism and to lost productivity while on the job ("presenteeism"). Although large survey studies have produced estimates of national prevalence and have suggested substantial national costs, specific employers are rarely able to apply these projections to their specific workforce. Using demographic and payroll data available from a large financial services corporation with over 80,000 employees, this study used established prevalence data to estimate corporate costs stemming from migraine-related absenteeism and reduced on-the-job productivity to total at least $21.5 M and $24.4 M. In addition, a comparison of predicted prevalence and cost impact was conducted using a simpler and less costly health risk appraisal. This assessment proved to be a reliable tool in assessing prevalence of migraineurs in this corporation's workforce. Its use with a sample of 19,853 employees at this corporation produced prevalence rates of 7.7% of men and 23.4% of women, estimates closely comparable to those of national surveys. Suggestions are made regarding a corporate response to the substantial costs of lost productivity associated with migraine headache. PMID:12085478

  2. A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline

    PubMed Central

    Shenk, Mary K.; Towner, Mary C.; Kress, Howard C.; Alam, Nurul

    2013-01-01

    The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions. PMID:23630293

  3. A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline.

    PubMed

    Shenk, Mary K; Towner, Mary C; Kress, Howard C; Alam, Nurul

    2013-05-14

    The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions. PMID:23630293

  4. Bio-hydrogen production by biodiesel-derived crude glycerol bioconversion: a techno-economic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Sarma, Saurabh Jyoti; Brar, Satinder Kaur; Le Bihan, Yann; Buelna, Gerardo

    2013-01-01

    Global biodiesel production is continuously increasing and it is proportionally accompanied by a huge amount of crude glycerol (CG) as by-product. Due to its crude nature, CG has very less commercial interest; although its pure counterpart has different industrial applications. Alternatively, CG is a very good carbon source and can be used as a feedstock for fermentative hydrogen production. Further, a move of this kind has dual benefits, namely it offers a sustainable method for disposal of biodiesel manufacturing waste as well as produces biofuels and contributes in greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction. Two-stage fermentation, comprising dark and photo-fermentation is one of the most promising options available for bio-hydrogen production. In the present study, techno-economic feasibility of such a two-stage process has been evaluated. The analysis has been made based on the recent advances in fermentative hydrogen production using CG as a feedstock. The study has been carried out with special reference to North American biodiesel market; and more specifically, data available for Canadian province, Québec City have been used. Based on our techno-economic analysis, higher production cost was found to be the major bottleneck in commercial production of fermentative hydrogen. However, certain achievable alternative options for reduction of process cost have been identified. Further, the process was found to be capable in reducing GHG emissions. Bioconversion of 1 kg of crude glycerol (70 % w/v) was found to reduce 7.66 kg CO(2) eq (equivalent) GHG emission, and the process also offers additional environmental benefits. PMID:22644063

  5. Fish Processed Production Planning Using Integer Stochastic Programming Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmansyah, Mawengkang, Herman

    2011-06-01

    Fish and its processed products are the most affordable source of animal protein in the diet of most people in Indonesia. The goal in production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the trade-off between economic objectives such as production cost and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model. The results which show the amount of each fish processed product and the number of workforce needed in each horizon planning are presented.

  6. Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison

    PubMed Central

    Hammer, Bernhard; Prskawetz, Alexia; Freund, Inga

    2015-01-01

    We compare selected European countries using an economic dependency ratio which emphasizes the role of age-specific levels of production and consumption. Our analysis reveals large differences in the age- and gender-specific level and type of production activities across selected European countries and identifies possible strategies to adjust age-specific economic behaviour to an ageing population. The cross-country differences in economic dependency of children and elderly persons are largely determined by the age at which people enter, respectively exit, the labour market. The ability of the working age population to support children and elderly persons in turn is strongly influenced by the participation of women in paid work. We also provide a measure for the age-specific production and consumption in form of unpaid household work. The inclusion of unpaid household work leads to a decrease of the gender differences in production activities and indicates that the working age population supports children and elderly persons not only through monetary transfers but also through services produced by unpaid work (e.g. childcare, cooking, cleaning…). Given the available data, we cannot distinguish the age profile of consumption by gender and have to assume – in case of unpaid work - that each member of the household consumes the same. Hence, our results have to be regarded as a first approximation only. Our paper aims to argue that a reform of the welfare system needs to take into account not only public transfers but also private transfers, in particular the transfers in form of goods and services produced through unpaid household work. PMID:26110107

  7. Energy, economic and environmental implications of production of grasses as biomass feedstocks

    SciTech Connect

    Downing, M.; McLaughlin, S.; Walsh, M.

    1995-08-01

    Perennial prairie grasses offer many advantages to the developing biofuels industry. High yielding varieties of native prairie grasses such as switchgrass, which combine lower levels of nutrient demand, diverse geographical growing range, high net energy yields and high soil and water conservation potential indicate that these grasses could and should supplement annual row crops such as corn in developing alternative fuels markets. Favorable net energy returns, increased soil erosion prevention, and a geographically diverse land base that can incorporate energy grasses into conventional farm practices will provide direct benefits to local and regional farm economies and lead to accelerated commercialization of conversion technologies. Displacement of row crops with perennial grasses will have major agricultural, economic, sociologic and cross-market implications. Thus, perennial grass production for biofuels offers significant economic advantages to a national energy strategy which considers both agricultural and environmental issues.

  8. The critical properties of the agent-based model with environmental-economic interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuscsik, Z.; Horváth, D.

    2008-05-01

    The steady-state and nonequilibrium properties of the model of environmental-economic interactions are studied. The interacting heterogeneous agents are simulated on the platform of the emission dynamics of cellular automaton. The diffusive emissions are produced by the factory agents, and the local pollution is monitored by the randomly walking (mobile) sensors. When the threshold concentration is exceeded, a feedback signal is transmitted from the sensor to the nearest factory that affects its actual production rate. The model predicts the discontinuous phase transition between safe and catastrophic ecology. Right at the critical line, the broad-scale power-law distributions of emission rates have been identified. The power-law fluctuations are triggered by the screening effect of factories and by the time delay between the environment contamination and its detection. The system shows the typical signs of the self-organized critical systems, such as power-law distributions and scaling laws.

  9. Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

    2014-04-01

    Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

  10. Multi-scale exploration of the technical, economic, and environmental dimensions of bio-based chemical production.

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Kai H; Herrgård, Markus J

    2015-09-01

    In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained traction as a sustainable alternative to petrochemicals. However, despite rapid advances in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology, there remain significant economic and environmental challenges. In order to maximize the impact of research investment in a new bio-based chemical industry, there is a need for assessing the technological, economic, and environmental potentials of combinations of biomass feedstocks, biochemical products, bioprocess technologies, and metabolic engineering approaches in the early phase of development of cell factories. To address this issue, we have developed a comprehensive Multi-scale framework for modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes and economic impact assessment. We demonstrate the use of the MuSIC framework in a case study where two major polymer precursors (1,3-propanediol and 3-hydroxypropionic acid) are produced from two biomass feedstocks (corn-based glucose and soy-based glycerol) through 66 proposed biosynthetic pathways in two host organisms (Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The MuSIC framework allows exploration of tradeoffs and interactions between economy-scale objectives (e.g. profit maximization, emission minimization), constraints (e.g. land-use constraints) and process- and cell-scale technology choices (e.g. strain design or oxygenation conditions). We demonstrate that economy-scale assessment can be used to guide specific strain design decisions in metabolic engineering, and that these design decisions can be affected by non-intuitive dependencies across multiple scales. PMID:26116515

  11. Green Net Regional Product for the San Luis Basin, Colorado: an economic measure of regional sustainability.

    PubMed

    Heberling, Matthew T; Templeton, Joshua J; Wu, Shanshan

    2012-11-30

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net Regional Product (GNRP), a green accounting approach, for the San Luis Basin (SLB). We measured the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNRP over time. Any attempt at green accounting requires both economic and natural capital data. However, limited data for the Basin requires a number of simplifying assumptions and requires transforming economic data at the national, state, and county levels to the level of the SLB. Given the contribution of agribusiness to the SLB, we included the depletion of both groundwater and soil as components in the depreciation of natural capital. We also captured the effect of the consumption of energy on climate change for future generations through carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. In order to estimate the depreciation of natural capital, the shadow price of water for agriculture, the economic damages from soil erosion due to wind, and the social cost of carbon emissions were obtained from the literature and applied to the SLB using benefit transfer. We used Colorado's total factor productivity for agriculture to estimate the value of time (i.e., to include the effects of exogenous technological progress). We aggregated the economic data and the depreciation of natural capital for the SLB from 1980 to 2005. The results suggest that GNRP had a slight upward trend through most of this time period, despite temporary negative trends, the longest of which occurred during the period 1985-86 to 1987-88. However, given the upward trend in GNRP and the possibility of business cycles causing the temporary declines, there is no definitive evidence of moving away from sustainability. PMID:22483369

  12. Use of a Deterministic Macroeconomic Computer Model as a Teaching Aid in Economic Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tedford, John R.

    A simple deterministic macroeconomic computer model was tested in a junior-senior level economic statistics course to demonstrate how and why some common errors arise when statistical estimation techniques are applied to economic relationships in empirical problematic situations. The computer model was treated as the true universe or real-world…

  13. Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

    2004-01-01

    This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

  14. Elements of an Economic Impact Study (Or Building on the ACE Model). AIR Forum Paper 1978.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Diane H.

    Requirements of a study of a school's economic impact on the community are reviewed and adjustments to the American Council on Education, or Caffrey-Issacs, model of economic impact studies suggested, based on the experiences of the University of Pittsburgh. Revisions to sections of the model dealing with tax loss to local governments, impacts on…

  15. The Costs and Benefits of SNOMED CT Implementation: An Economic Assessment Model.

    PubMed

    Thiel, Rainer; Birov, Strahil; Piesche, Klaus; Højen, Anne Randorff; Gøeg, Kirstine Rosenbeck; Dewenter, Heike; Nejad, Reza Fathollah; Thun, Sylvia; Volkert, Pim; Kufrin, Vesna Kronstein; Stroetmann, Veli

    2016-01-01

    As part of its investigations, the EU-funded ASSESS CT project developed an Economic Assessment Model for assessing SNOMED CT's and other terminologies' socio-economic impact in a systematic approach. Methodology and key elements of the model are presented: cost and benefit indicators for assessing deployment, and a cost-benefit analysis tool to collect, estimate, and evaluate data. PMID:27577421

  16. Problem-Based Learning: Modifying the Medical School Model for Teaching High School Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maxwell, Nan L.; Bellisimo, Yolanda; Mergendoller, John

    2001-01-01

    Provides background information on the problem-based learning (PBL) model used in medical education that was adapted for high school economics. Describes the high school economics curriculum and outline the stages of the PBL model using examples from a unit called "The High School Food Court." Discusses the design considerations. (CMK)

  17. Economic Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor Powered High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

    SciTech Connect

    E. A. Harvego; M. G. McKellar; M. S. Sohal; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

    2008-08-01

    A reference design for a commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production was developed to provide a basis for comparing the HTE concept with other hydrogen production concepts. The reference plant design is driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle. The reference design reactor power is 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 540°C and 900°C, respectively. The electrolysis unit used to produce hydrogen includes 4,009,177 cells with a per-cell active area of 225 cm2. The optimized design for the reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes an air-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode (oxygen) side of the electrolyzer. The inlet air for the air-sweep system is compressed to the system operating pressure of 5.0 MPa in a four-stage compressor with intercooling. The alternating-current, AC, to direct-current, DC, conversion efficiency is 96%. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the lower heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 47.12% at a hydrogen production rate of 2.356 kg/s. An economic analysis of this plant was performed using the standardized H2A Analysis Methodology developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program, and using realistic financial and cost estimating assumptions. The results of the economic analysis demonstrated that the HTE hydrogen production plant driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear power plant can deliver hydrogen at a competitive cost. A cost of $3.23/kg of hydrogen was calculated assuming an internal rate of return of 10%.

  18. Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production.

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Herrgård, Markus J

    2013-09-01

    With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production. PMID:23520143

  19. Reservoir Modeling for Production Management

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Donald W.

    1989-03-21

    For both petroleum and geothermal resources, many of the reservoirs are fracture dominated--rather than matrix-permeability controlled. For such reservoirs, a knowledge of the pressure-dependent permeability of the interconnected system of natural joints (i.e., pre-existing fractures) is critical to the efficient exploitation of the resource through proper pressure management. Our experience and that reported by others indicates that a reduction in the reservoir pressure sometimes leads to an overall reduction in production rate due to the ''pinching off'' of the joint network, rather than the anticipated increase in production rate. This effect occurs not just in the vicinity of the wellbore, where proppants are sometimes employed, but throughout much of the reservoir region. This follows from the fact that under certain circumstances, the decline in fracture permeability (or conductivity) with decreasing reservoir pressure exceeds the far-field reservoir ''drainage'' flow rate increase due to the increased pressure gradient. Further, a knowledge of the pressure-dependent joint permeability could aid in designing more appropriate secondary recovery strategies in petroleum reservoirs or reinjection procedures for geothermal reservoirs.

  20. Status Report on Modeling and Analysis of Small Modular Reactor Economics

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J; Hale, Richard Edward; Moses, Rebecca J

    2013-04-01

    This report describes the work performed to generate the model for SMR economic analysis. The model is based on the G4-ECONS calculation tool developed for the Generation IV International Forum (GIF).

  1. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Goldberg, M.

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  2. Economic analysis and environmental impact assessment of three different fermentation processes for fructooligosaccharides production.

    PubMed

    Mussatto, Solange I; Aguiar, Luís M; Marinha, Mariana I; Jorge, Rita C; Ferreira, Eugénio C

    2015-12-01

    Three different fermentation processes for the production of fructooligosaccharides (FOS) were evaluated and compared in terms of economic aspects and environmental impact. The processes included: submerged fermentation of sucrose solution by Aspergillus japonicus using free cells or using the cells immobilized in corn cobs, and solid-state fermentation (SSF) using coffee silverskin as support material and nutrient source. The scale-up was designed using data obtained at laboratory scale and considering an annual productivity goal of 200 t. SSF was the most attractive process in both economic and environmental aspects since it is able to generate FOS with higher annual productivity (232.6 t) and purity (98.6%) than the other processes; reaches the highest annual profit (6.55 M€); presents the lowest payback time (2.27 years); and is more favourable environmentally causing a lower carbon footprint (0.728 kg/kg, expressed in mass of CO2 equivalent per mass of FOS) and the lowest wastewater generation. PMID:26433793

  3. Economic and energetic evaluation of alcohol fuel production from agriculture: Yolo County, California

    SciTech Connect

    Meo, M.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation reviews the technical aspects of alcohol fuel production and consumption, examines the set of policy-related issues that affect both the private and the public sectors, and investigates the economic and energetic feasibility of small-scale on-farm production on a representative Sacramento Valley field and vegetable crop farm. Candidate feedstocks, including both starch and sugar-rich crops, are: barley, corn, fodder beet, grain sorghum, Jerusalem artichoke, sugar beet, sweet sorghum, tomatoes, and wheat. The leading fuel crops were found to be sweet sorghum, Jerusalem artichoke, corn, fodder beet, and grain sorghum in order of declining preference. With better than average crop yields and the current mix of financial incentives, the breakeven cost of alcohol fuel is $1.03 per gallon when diesel fuel and gasoline prices are $1.30 and $1.46, respectively. Without subsidy, the breakeven cost is $1.62 per gallon. An energy analysis was calculated for each of the feedstocks under consideration. With the exception of sweet sorghum, wheat, and barley, all feedstocks showed a negative net energy balance. The use of agricultural residues as a boiler fuel, however, made a significant difference in the overall energy balance. The role of government in energy policy is reviewed and typical policy instruments are discussed. Although on-farm alcohol fuel production is not currently economically competitive with gasoline and diesel fuel, technological innovation and the return of increasing petroleum prices could alter the situation.

  4. Ethanol production in southwestern New York: technical and economic feasibility. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kalter, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    The development of one or more centralized ethanol conversion facilities in the Southwestern portion of New York State is likely to be commercially feasible if either locally-produced cheese whey and/or imported corn are used as a feedstock. Development is shown to be highly profitable under a broad range of economic conditions and technical considerations. Four plant designs ranging in annual production capacity from 1.675 to 27.5 million gallons of ethanol (utilizing alternative feedstocks) are investigated. Although all are found to be economically viable, maximum profitability per unit production are obtained from a 2.5 million gallon plant using only whey. In all cases, a by-product in the form of animal feed is generated, which will result in additional revenue for the conversion facility. In the case of corn/whey plants it takes the form of a distillers dried grain. In the case of whey plants, it takes the form of a high-mineral, medium protein feed supplement for low and moderate producing dairy cattle. Both have a ready market in the region. Also the cheese whey is assumed to be deproteinized at the cheese manufacturing plant prior to delivery to an ethanol conversion plant to obtain a valuable, human-grade food protein.

  5. The economic production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas

    SciTech Connect

    Kugler, E.L.; Dadyburjor, D.B.; Yang, R.Y.K.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of this project are to discover, (1) study and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas. Specifically, alternative methods of preparing catalysts are to be investigated, and novel catalysts, including sulfur-tolerant ones, are to be pursued. (Task 1); (2) explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. (Task 1); (3) simulate by computer the most energy efficient and economically efficient process for converting coal to energy, with primary focus on converting syngas to fuel alcohols. (Task 2); (4) develop on the bench scale the best holistic combination of chemistry, catalyst, reactor and total process configuration integrated with the overall coal conversion process to achieve economic optimization for the conversion of syngas to liquid products within the framework of achieving the maximum cost effective transformation of coal to energy equivalents. (Tasks 1 and 2); and (5) evaluate the combustion, emission and performance characteristics of fuel alcohols and blends of alcohols with petroleum-based fuels. (Task 2)

  6. Stockmanship Competence and Its Relation to Productivity and Economic Profitability: The Context of Backyard Goat Production in the Philippines

    PubMed Central

    Alcedo, M. J.; Ito, K.; Maeda, K.

    2015-01-01

    A stockperson has a significant influence on the productivity and welfare of his animals depending on his stockmanship competence. In this study, stockmanship competence (SC) is defined as the capacity of the stockperson to ensure the welfare of his animals by providing his animals’ needs. The study was conducted to evaluate the SC of backyard goat raisers and examine its relationship to goat productivity and economic profitability. There were 101 respondents for this study who have all undertaken farmer livestock school on integrated goat management (FLS-IGM). Interview was conducted in Region I, Philippines on September 3 to 30, 2012 and March 4 to 17, 2013. Data on SC, goat productivity and farmer’s income were gathered. Questions regarding SC were formulated based on the Philippine Recommendations for Goat Production and from other scientific literature. Housing, feeding, breeding and health and husbandry management were the indicators used in computing stockmanship competence index score (SCIS). Pearson correlation using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was carried out to analyse the relationship between SCIS, productivity and income. Based from the results of the study, a majority of the respondents raised native and upgraded goats. The computed mean SCIS before and after undergoing FLS-IGM were 38.52% and 75.81% respectively, a percentage difference of 65.23%. Both index scores resulted in significant differences in productivity and income. The median mature weight and mortality rate of goats before FLS-IGM was 14 kg and 30% respectively. After FLS-IGM, median mature weight was 19 kg and mortality rate decreased from 30% to 11.11%. Likewise, fewer goat diseases were observed by farmers who were able to undergo FLS-IGM. With regard to income, there was a 127.34% difference on the median net income derived by farmers. Result implies that improved SC could lead not only to increased productivity and income of backyard goat raisers but also to

  7. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    PubMed

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. PMID:26348787

  8. Sustainable biomass energy production and rural economic development using alfalfa as feedstock

    SciTech Connect

    DeLong, M.M.; Swanberg, D.R.; Oelke, E.A.

    1995-11-01

    Alfalfa is a well-known and widely-planted crop that offers environmental and soil conservation advantages when grown as a 4-year segment in a 7-year rotation with corn and soybeans. Alfalfa fixes nitrogen from the air, thereby enhancing soil nitrogen and decreasing the need for manufactured nitrogen fertilizer. With alfalfa yields of 4 dry tons per acre per year and with separate alfalfa leaves being sold as a high-value animal feed, separated alfalfa stems can be economically viable fuel feedstock for a gasifier combined cycle power plant. This paper reports on a feasibility study for an integrated biomass power system, where an energy crop (alfalfa) is coupled to a processing plant and a power plant (integrated gasification combined cycle with hot gas cleanup) in a way that benefits the joint venture of an alfalfa producers cooperative and a utility entity. The sale of a mid-level protein animal feed co-product and electricity both support the production cost of alfalfa. The co-product/fuel processing operation uses a common train of equipment, thereby requiring neither product to carry the total cost. The power plant provides an important continuous demand for the feedstock and results in continuous supply of leaf product to provide a reliable supply needed for the leaf meal product.

  9. The economic bases of demographic reproduction: from the domestic mode of production to wage-earning.

    PubMed

    Meillassoux, C

    1983-10-01

    This paper explores the economic basis of demographic reproduction through an analysis of the shift from self-sustaining agricultural production to wage earning in the industrial sector. In subsistence societies, the upper limits of demographic reproduction are set more by agricultural capacities than by women's natural fecundity. An increase in the productivity of agriculture is a necessary precondition for demographic growth. Such societies are based on intergenerational circulation of surplus product, i.e., the community contains preproductive members who are fed and bred until they reach a productive age, producers whose surplus product exceeds their individual consumption, and postproducers who depend on the younger generation for their subsistence. The domestic mode of collective labor becomes weakened, however, when producer members become wage earners as a result of temporary or permanent rural exodus. Under such conditions, the investment of the older generation in the next may be lost to the benefit of the industrial sector employing the rural migrants. The shift has 2 major implications. 1st, population growth is no longer tied to domestic agricultural productivity or the storage capcity of the community; rather, it is related to access to cash, wage levels, employment duration, and food prices. These circumstances foster a higher probability of demographic growth. 2nd, disruption of the circulation of subsistence produces depopulation of the rural areas and severe deterioration of the living conditions in these areas. PMID:12266014

  10. Production of recombinant HIV-1 nef protein using different expression host systems: a techno-economical comparison.

    PubMed

    Vermasvuori, Raisa; Koskinen, Jani; Salonen, Katri; Sirén, Noora; Weegar, Jan; Dahlbacka, John; Kalkkinen, Nisse; von Weymarn, Niklas

    2009-01-01

    Three popular expression host systems Escherichia coli, Pichia pastoris and Drosophila S2 were analyzed techno-economically using HIV-1 Nef protein as the model product. On scale of 100 mg protein, the labor costs corresponded to 52-83% of the manufacturing costs. When analyzing the cost impact of the different phases (strain/cell line construction, bioreactor production, and primary purification), we found that with the microbial host systems the strain construction phase was most significant generating 56% (E. coli) and 72% (P. pastoris) of the manufacturing costs, whereas with the Drosophila S2 system the cell line construction and bioreactor production phases were equally significant (46 and 47% of the total costs, respectively). With different titers and production goal of 100 mg of Nef protein, the costs of P. pastoris and Drosophila S2 systems were about two and four times higher than the respective costs of the E. coli system. When equal titers and bioreactor working volumes (10 L) were assumed for all three systems, the manufacturing costs of the bioreactor production of the P. pastoris and Drosophila S2 systems were about two and 2.5 times higher than the respective costs of the E. coli system. PMID:19224559

  11. Economic efficiency versus social equality? The U.S. liberal model versus the European social model.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Vicente; Schmitt, John

    2005-01-01

    This article begins by challenging the widely held view in neoliberal discourse that there is a necessary trade-off between higher efficiency and lower reduction of inequalities: the article empirically shows that the liberal, U.S. model has been less efficient economically (slower economic growth, higher unemployment) than the social model in existence in the European Union and in the majority of its member states. Based on the data presented, the authors criticize the adoption of features of the liberal model (such as deregulation of their labor markets, reduction of public social expenditures) by some European governments. The second section analyzes the causes for the slowdown of economic growth and the increase of unemployment in the European Union--that is, the application of monetarist and neoliberal policies in the institutional frame of the European Union, including the Stability Pact, the objectives and modus operandi of the European Central Bank, and the very limited resources available to the European Commission for stimulating and distributive functions. The third section details the reasons for these developments, including (besides historical considerations) the enormous influence of financial capital in the E.U. institutions and the very limited democracy. Proposals for change are included. PMID:16320895

  12. Leaf economics spectrum-productivity relationships in intensively grazed pastures depend on dominant species identity.

    PubMed

    Mason, Norman W H; Orwin, Kate; Lambie, Suzanne; Woodward, Sharon L; McCready, Tiffany; Mudge, Paul

    2016-05-01

    Plant functional traits are thought to drive variation in primary productivity. However, there is a lack of work examining how dominant species identity affects trait-productivity relationships. The productivity of 12 pasture mixtures was determined in a 3-year field experiment. The mixtures were based on either the winter-active ryegrass (Lolium perenne) or winter-dormant tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea). Different mixtures were obtained by adding forb, legume, and grass species that differ in key leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits to the basic two-species dominant grass-white clover (Trifolium repens) mixtures. We tested for correlations between community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values, functional diversity, and productivity across all plots and within those based on either ryegrass or tall fescue. The winter-dormant forb species (chicory and plantain) had leaf traits consistent with high relative growth rates both per unit leaf area (high leaf thickness) and per unit leaf dry weight (low leaf dry matter content). Together, the two forb species achieved reasonable abundance when grown with either base grass (means of 36% and 53% of total biomass, respectively, with ryegrass tall fescue), but they competed much more strongly with tall fescue than with ryegrass. Consequently, they had a net negative impact on productivity when grown with tall fescue, and a net positive effect when grown with ryegrass. Strongly significant relationships between productivity and CWM values for LES traits were observed across ryegrass-based mixtures, but not across tall fescue-based mixtures. Functional diversity did not have a significant positive effect on productivity for any of the traits. The results show dominant species identity can strongly modify trait-productivity relationships in intensively grazed pastures. This was due to differences in the intensity of competition between dominant species and additional species, suggesting that resource-use complementarity is a

  13. Analysis of the economic impacts from ethanol production in three New York State regions. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Batista, J.C.; Boisvert, R.N.; Kalter, R.J.

    1982-11-01

    This report describes the potential local economic impact of ethanol production industries for three multi-county regions of New York State. The study's input-output analysis suggests that investment in a small cheese whey-ethanol plant would generate far more local employment, per gallon of annual capacity, than a large corn-based plant which would rely more heavily on feedstocks from the outside region. In addition, a cheese whey ethanol plant's impact on dairies in the region would have a greater effect on the local economy than the ethanol plant itself.

  14. Economics of large-scale thorium oxide production: assessment of domestic resources

    SciTech Connect

    Young, J.K.; Bloomster, C.H.; Enderlin, W.I.; Morgenstern, M.H.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Drost, M.K.; Weakley, S.A.

    1980-02-01

    The supply curve illustrates that sufficient amounts of thorium exist supply a domestic thorium-reactor economy. Most likely costs of production range from $3 to $60/lb ThO/sub 2/. Near-term thorium oxide resources include the stockpiles in Ohio, Maryland, and Tennessee and the thorite deposits at Hall Mountain, Idaho. Costs are under $10/lb thorium oxide. Longer term economic deposits include Wet Mountain, Colorado; Lemhi Pass, Idaho; and Palmer, Michigan. Most likely costs are under $20/lb thorium oxide. Long-term deposits include Bald Mountain, Wyoming; Bear Lodge, Wyoming; and Conway, New Hampshire. Costs approximately equal or exceed $50/lb thorium oxide.

  15. The Economic Impact of Shale Gas Production in the U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yang

    Energy is important to our daily lives. A price change of one energy type may influence our consumption choices, commodities prices and industry production. For the United States, shale gas is becoming a promising source of natural gas because of the rapid increase in its reserve and production capacity. Shale gas production is projected to be a large proportion of U.S. gas production, as predicted by Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, besides knowing the big picture, more details are needed before characterizing shale gas as a "game changer." It is interesting to address questions like to what extent the production of shale gas could affect other industries' production, stabilize commodities' prices, and what are the impacts on factor payments, capital returns, labor payments and household consumption. In this study, I use a CGE model to measure the impact on industry and the change in social welfare associated with shale gas production.

  16. An interactive environmental model for economic growth: evidence from a panel of countries.

    PubMed

    Ramakrishnan, Suresh; Hishan, Sanil S; Nabi, Agha Amad; Arshad, Zeeshan; Kanjanapathy, Malini; Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    This study aims to determine an interactive environmental model for economic growth that would be supported by the "sustainability principles" across the globe. The study examines the relationship between environmental pollutants (i.e., carbon dioxide emission, sulfur dioxide emission, mono-nitrogen oxide, and nitrous oxide emission); population growth; energy use; trade openness; per capita food production; and it's resulting impact on the real per capita GDP and sectoral growth (i.e., share of agriculture, industry, and services in GDP) in a panel of 34 high-income OECD, high-income non-OECD, and Europe and Central Asian countries, for the period of 1995-2014. The results of the panel fixed effect regression show that per capita GDP are influenced by sulfur dioxide emission, population growth, and per capita food production variability, while energy and trade openness significantly increases per capita income of the region. The results of the panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) show that carbon dioxide emission significantly decreases the share of agriculture and industry in GDP, while it further supports the share of services sector to GDP. Both the sulfur dioxide and mono-nitrogen oxide emission decreases the share of services in GDP; nitrous oxide decreases the share of industry in GDP; while mono-nitrogen oxide supports the industrial activities. The following key growth-specific results has been obtained from the panel SUR estimation, i.e., (i) Both the food production per capita and trade openness significantly associated with the increasing share of agriculture, (ii) food production and energy use significantly increases the service sectors' productivity; (iii) food production decreases the industrial activities; (iv) trade openness decreases the share of services to GDP while it supports the industrial share to GDP; and finally, (v) energy demand decreases along with the increase agricultural share in the region. The results emphasize the need for

  17. System Evaluation and Economic Analysis of a HTGR Powered High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Michael G. McKellar; Edwin A. Harvego; Anastasia A. Gandrik

    2010-10-01

    A design for a commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production has been developed. The HTE plant is powered by a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) whose configuration and operating conditions are based on the latest design parameters planned for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). The current HTGR reference design specifies a reactor power of 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 322°C and 750°C, respectively. The power conversion unit will be a Rankine steam cycle with a power conversion efficiency of 40%. The reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes a steam-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode (oxygen) side of the electrolyzer. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the higher heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 40.4% at a hydrogen production rate of 1.75 kg/s and an oxygen production rate of 13.8 kg/s. An economic analysis of this plant was performed with realistic financial and cost estimating assumptions. The results of the economic analysis demonstrated that the HTE hydrogen production plant driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear power plant can deliver hydrogen at a cost of $3.67/kg of hydrogen assuming an internal rate of return, IRR, of 12% and a debt to equity ratio of 80%/20%. A second analysis shows that if the power cycle efficiency increases to 44.4%, the hydrogen production efficiency increases to 42.8% and the hydrogen and oxygen production rates are 1.85 kg/s and 14.6 kg/s respectively. At the higher power cycle efficiency and an IRR of 12% the cost of hydrogen production is $3.50/kg.

  18. Micro-Economic Models of Problem Choice in Basic Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sneed, Joseph D.

    Certain representations of basic scientific knowledge can be coupled with traditional micro-economic analysis to provide an analysis of rational research planning or agenda setting in basic science. Research planning is conceived of as a resource allocation decision in which resources are being allocated to activities directed toward the solution…

  19. Integrating spread dynamics and economics of timber production to manage Chinese tallow invasions in southern U.S. forestlands.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E; Gan, Jianbang; Rogers, William E; Swannack, Todd M; Koralewski, Tomasz E; Miller, James H; Taylor, John W

    2012-01-01

    Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species. PMID:22442731

  20. Integrating Spread Dynamics and Economics of Timber Production to Manage Chinese Tallow Invasions in Southern U.S. Forestlands

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E.; Gan, Jianbang; Rogers, William E.; Swannack, Todd M.; Koralewski, Tomasz E.; Miller, James H.; Taylor, John W.

    2012-01-01

    Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species. PMID:22442731

  1. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability.

    PubMed

    Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time. PMID:26721472

  2. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T.

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

  3. An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection.

    PubMed

    Connelly, Luke B; Pink, Anne

    2002-10-01

    This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. PMID:12350045

  4. Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such

  5. Energy/economic model analysis. Macroeconomic impacts of research and development in gas supply and end use technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goettle, R. J., IV; Hudson, E. A.

    1980-06-01

    The Gas Research Institute (GRI) needs to consider the economic impact of the various technologies whose research and development is supported by GRI funding. Three energy-economic models are useful for such a technology assessment. These models are: Energy Economic Modeling System, Energy Policy Model, and Time Stepped Energy System Optimization/Long Term Inter-Industry Transaction Model. These three models were used to help in the economic impact evaluation of various GRI research and development programs.

  6. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    SciTech Connect

    Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

    2013-04-08

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high- temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission

  7. Technical and economic assessment of processes for the production of butanol and acetone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    This report represents a preliminary technical and economic evaluation of a process which produces mixed solvents (butaol/acetone/ethanol) via fermentation of sugars derived from renewable biomass resources. The objective is to assess the technology of producing butanol/acetone from biomass, and select a viable process capable of serving as a base case model for technical and economic analysis. It is anticipated that the base case process developed herein can then be used as the basis for subsequent studies concerning biomass conversion processes capable of producing a wide range of chemicals. The general criteria utilized in determining the design basis for the process are profit potential and non-renewable energy displacement potential. The feedstock chosen, aspen wood, was selected from a number of potential renewable biomass resources as the most readily available in the United States and for its relatively large potential for producing reducing sugars.

  8. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond-Lamberty, B.; Calvin, K.; Jones, A. D.; Mao, J.; Patel, P.; Shi, X. Y.; Thomson, A.; Thornton, P.; Zhou, Y.

    2014-11-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, and the scope of these activities will change with both future climate and socioeconomic decisions. This poses a significant challenge for Earth system models (ESMs), which can incorporate land use change as prescribed inputs but do not actively simulate the policy or economic forces that drive land use change. One option to address this problem is to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model, but this is challenging because of the radically different goals and underpinnings of each type of model. This study describes the development and testing of a coupling between the terrestrial carbon cycle of an ESM (CESM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, focusing on how CESM climate effects on the carbon cycle could be shared with GCAM. We examine the best proxy variables to share between the models, and we quantify how carbon flux changes driven by climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use changes (e.g., deforestation) can be distinguished from each other by GCAM. The net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs of the Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of CESM, were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to recalculate GCAM's assumptions of equilibrium ecosystem steady-state carbon. Carbon cycle effects of land use change are spatially limited relative to climate effects, and thus we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. This paper does not present results of a fully coupled simulation but shows, using a series of offline CLM simulations and an additional idealized Monte Carlo simulation, that our CESM-GCAM proxy variables reflect the phenomena that we intend and do not contain erroneous signals due to land use change. By allowing climate effects from a full ESM to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated

  9. Comparison of various microalgae liquid biofuel production pathways based on energetic, economic and environmental criteria.

    PubMed

    Delrue, F; Li-Beisson, Y; Setier, P-A; Sahut, C; Roubaud, A; Froment, A-K; Peltier, G

    2013-05-01

    In view of the increasing demand for bioenergy, in this study, the techno-economic viabilities for three emerging pathways to microalgal biofuel production have been evaluated. The three processes evaluated are the hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), oil secretion and alkane secretion. These three routes differ in their lipid extraction procedure and the end-products produced. This analysis showed that these three processes showed various advantages: possibility to convert the defatted microalgae into bio-crude via HTL thus increasing the total biodiesel yield; better energetic and environmental performance for oil secretion and an even increased net energy ratio (NER) for alkane secretion. However, great technological breakthroughs are needed before planning any scale-up strategy such as continuous wet biomass processing and heat exchange optimization for the HTL pathway and effective and sustainable excretion for both secretion pathways. PMID:23567683

  10. Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

    PubMed

    Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants. PMID:25459861

  11. The economic and community impacts of closing Hanford's N Reactor and nuclear materials production facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Belzer, D.B.; Nesse, R.J.; Schultz, R.W.; Stokowski, P.A.; Clark, D.C.

    1987-08-01

    This study discusses the negative economic impact on local cities and counties and the State of Washington of a permanent closure of nuclear materials production at the Hanford Site, located in the southeastern part of the state. The loss of nuclear materials production, the largest and most important of the five Department of Energy (DOE) missions at Hanford, could occur if Hanford's N Reactor is permanently closed and not replaced. The study provides estimates of statewide and local losses in jobs, income, and purchases from the private sector caused by such an event; it forecasts impacts on state and local government finances; and it describes certain local community and social impacts in the Tri-Cities (Richland, Kennewick, and Pasco) and surrounding communities. 33 refs., 8 figs., 22 tabs.

  12. A review of the global prevalence, molecular epidemiology and economics of cystic echinococcosis in production animals.

    PubMed

    Cardona, Guillermo A; Carmena, David

    2013-02-18

    Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is an important and widespread zoonotic infection caused by the larval stages of taeniid cestodes of the genus Echinococcus. The disease represents a serious animal health concern in many rural areas of the world, causing important economic losses derived from decreased productivity and viscera condemnation in livestock species. In this review we aim to provide a comprehensive overview on recent research progress in the epidemiology of CE in production animals from a global perspective. Particular attention has been paid to the discussion of the extent and significance of recent molecular epidemiologic data. The financial burden associated to CE on the livestock industry has also been addressed. Data presented are expected to improve our current understanding of the parasite's geographical distribution, transmission, host range, immunogenicity, pathogenesis, and genotype frequencies. This information should be also valuable for the design and implementation of more efficient control strategies against CE. PMID:23084536

  13. Nano-Disperse Borides and Carbides: Plasma Technology Production, Specific Properties, Economic Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galevskii, G. V.; Rudneva, V. V.; Galevskii, S. G.; Tomas, K. I.; Zubkov, M. S.

    2016-04-01

    The experience of production and study on properties of nano-disperse chromium and titanium borides and carbides, and silicon carbide has been generalized. The structure and special service aspects of utilized plasma-metallurgical complex equipped with a three-jet direct-flow reactor with a capacity of 150 kW have been outlined. Processing, heat engineering and service life characteristics of the reactor are specified. The synthesis parameters of borides and carbides, as well as their basic characteristics in nano-disperse condition and their production flow diagram are outlined. Engineering and economic performance of synthesizing borides in laboratory and industrial conditions is assessed, and the respective segment of the international market as well. The work is performed at State Siberian Industrial University as a project part of the State Order of Ministry of Science and Education of the Russian Federation No. 11.1531/2014/K.

  14. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  15. Modeling And Economics Of Extreme Subduction Earthquakes: Two Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Moulinec, C.

    2008-05-01

    The destructive effects of large magnitude, thrust subduction superficial (TSS) earthquakes on Mexico City (MC) and Guadalajara (G) has been shown in the recent centuries. For example, the 7/04/1845 and the 19/09/1985, two TSS earthquakes occurred on the coast of the state of Guerrero and Michoacan, with Ms 7+ and 8.1. The economical losses for the later were of about 7 billion US dollars. Also, the largest Ms 8.2, instrumentally observed TSS earthquake in Mexico, occurred in the Colima-Jalisco region the 3/06/1932, and the 9/10/1995 another similar, Ms 7.4 event occurred in the same region, the later produced economical losses of hundreds of thousands US dollars.The frequency of occurrence of large TSS earthquakes in Mexico is poorly known, but it might vary from decades to centuries [1]. Therefore there is a lack of strong ground motions records for extreme TSS earthquakes in Mexico, which as mentioned above, recently had an important economical impact on MC and potentially could have it in G. In this work we obtained samples of broadband synthetics [2,3] expected in MC and G, associated to extreme (plausible) magnitude Mw 8.5, TSS scenario earthquakes, with epicenters in the so-called Guerrero gap and in the Colima-Jalisco zone, respectively. The economical impacts of the proposed extreme TSS earthquake scenarios for MC and G were considered as follows: For MC by using a risk acceptability criteria, the probabilities of exceedance of the maximum seismic responses of their construction stock under the assumed scenarios, and the estimated economical losses observed for the 19/09/1985 earthquake; and for G, by estimating the expected economical losses, based on the seismic vulnerability assessment of their construction stock under the extreme seismic scenario considered. ----------------------- [1] Nishenko S.P. and Singh SK, BSSA 77, 6, 1987 [2] Cabrera E., Chavez M., Madariaga R., Mai M, Frisenda M., Perea N., AGU, Fall Meeting, 2005 [3] Chavez M., Olsen K

  16. A Mathematical Analysis of the Learning Production Process and a Model for Determining What Matters in Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bacdayan, Andrew W.

    1997-01-01

    Describes in economic and mathematical terms the learning production process at the individual level. Presents a model to determine which factors influence this process. Tests the model, using data from two widely divergent learning situations, ranging from lecture-oriented college economics courses to programmed instruction to learn eighth-grade…

  17. Thermal stress and tropical cyclones affect economic production in Central America and Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    Surface temperatures and tropical cyclones have large impacts on economic production. Local cyclone energy dissipation reduces output in agriculture and tourism, while stimulating output in construction. High surface temperatures reduce output in several labor-intensive industries; a 1° C increase for two consecutive years results in production losses of ˜13%. The response is greatest during the hottest season and is non-linear, with high temperature days contributing the most to production losses. The structure of this response matches results from a large ergonomics literature, supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress reduces human performance, driving macroeconomic fluctuations. This large response of non-agricultural sectors suggests that current estimates underestimate the scale and scope of economic vulnerabilities to climate change. Responses of each industry to surface temperature, tropical cyclones and rainfall. Estimates represent the change of value-added in the industry in response to each atmospheric variables during the year of production (L=0) and the years prior (L≥1). The responses to surface temperature are triangles, tropical cyclones are squares and rainfall are crosses. Estimates are grey if none of the annual responses are significant at the α = 0.1 level. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals. Tourism receipts displays the five years prior (L=1-5) because of the long response of that industry to cyclones. Agriculture per worker is also plotted as circles when estimated a second time excluding mainland countries from the sample. Units are: temperature- percent change in output per 0.33°C; cyclones- percent changes in output per 1 standard deviation of tropical cyclone energy; rainfall- percent change in output per 2 cm/month.

  18. An Economic Aspect of the AVOID Programme: Analysis Using the AIM/CGE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2010-05-01

    This presentation purposes to show the results of the analysis that the AIM/CGE [Global] model contributed to Work Stream 1 of the AVOID programme. Three economic models participate in this WS to analyze the economic aspects of defined climate policies, and the AIM/CGE [Global] model is one of them. The reference scenario is SRES A1B and five policy scenarios (2016.R2.H, 2016.R4.L, 2016.R5.L, 2030.R2.H, and 2030.R5.L) are considered. The climate policies are expressed as emissions pathways of several gases such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The AIM/CGE [Global] model is a recursive dynamic global CGE model with 21 industrial sectors and 24 world regions. These definitions are based on the GTAP6 database and it is used as the economic data of the base year. Some important characteristics of this model can be summarized as follows: power generation by various sources (from non-renewables to renewables) are considered; CCS technology is modeled; biomass energy (both traditional and purpose-grown) production and consumption are included; not only CO2 emissions but also other gases are considered; international markets are modeled for international trade of some fossil fuels; relationships between the costs and resource reserves of fossil fuels are modeled. The model is run with 10-year time steps until 2100. For the reference case, there are no constraints and the model is run based on the drivers (assumptions on GDP and population for A1B) and AEEI. The reference case does not have the same emissions pathways as the prescribed emissions for A1B in AVOID. For scenario cases, the model is run under emissions constraints. In particular, for each policy scenario, the constraint on each gas in each 10-year step is derived. The percentage reduction in emissions that occurs between the AVOID A1B scenario and the particular policy scenario, for each gas in each 10-year period is first calculated, and then these percentage reductions are applied to the AIM reference case

  19. Economics of Mass Media Health Campaigns with Health-Related Product Distribution: A Community Guide Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Jacob, Verughese; Chattopadhyay, Sajal K.; Elder, Randy W.; Robinson, Maren N.; Tansil, Kristin A.; Soler, Robin E.; Labre, Magdala P.; Mercer, Shawna L.

    2015-01-01

    Context The objective of this systematic review was to determine the costs, benefits, and overall economic value of communication campaigns that included mass media and distribution of specified health-related products at reduced price or free of charge. Evidence Acquisition Economic evaluation studies from a literature search from January 1980–December 2009 were screened and abstracted following systematic economic review methods developed by The Community Guide. Data were analyzed in 2011. Evidence Synthesis The economic evidence was grouped and assessed by type of product distributed and health risk addressed. A total of 15 evaluation studies were included in the economic review, involving campaigns promoting the use of child car seats or booster seats, pedometers, condoms, recreational safety helmets, and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Conclusion Economic merits of the intervention could not be determined for health communication campaigns associated with use of recreational helmets, child car seats, and pedometers, primarily because available economic information and analyses were incomplete. There is some evidence that campaigns with free condom distribution to promote safer sex practices were cost-effective among high-risk populations and the cost per quit achieved in campaigns promoting tobacco cessation with NRT products may translate to a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) less than $50,000. Many interventions were publicly funded trials or programs, and the failure to properly evaluate their economic cost and benefit is a serious gap in the science and practice of public health. PMID:25145619

  20. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  1. Particle production beyond the thermal model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolschin, Georg

    2016-07-01

    The sources of particle production in relativistic heavy-ion collisions are investigated from RHIC to LHC energies. Whereas charged-hadron production in the fragmentation sources follows a ln(sNN/s0) law, particle production in the mid-rapidity low-x gluon-gluon source exhibits a much stronger dependence ∝ ln3(sNN/s0), and becomes dominant between RHIC and LHC energies. The equilibration of the three sources is investigated in a relativistic diffusion model (RDM). It agrees with the thermal model only for t → ∞.

  2. Analytical Modeling of Shale Hydraulic Fracturing and Gas Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, W.

    2012-12-01

    Shale gas is abundant all over the world. Due to its extremely low permeability, extensive stimulation of a shale reservoir is always required for its economic production. Hydraulic fracturing has been the primary method of shale reservoir stimulation. Consequently the design and optimization of a hydraulic fracturing treatment plays a vital role insuring job success and economic production. Due to the many variables involved and the lack of a simple yet robust tool based on fundamental physics, horizontal well placement and fracturing job designs have to certain degree been a guessing game built on previous trial and error experience. This paper presents a method for hydraulic fracturing design and optimization in these environments. The growth of a complex hydraulic fracture network (HFN) during a fracturing job is equivalently represented by a wiremesh fracturing model (WFM) constructed on the basis of fracture mechanics and mass balance. The model also simulates proppant transport and placement during HFN growth. Results of WFM simulations can then be used as the input into a wiremesh production model (WPM) constructed based on WFM. WPM represents gas flow through the wiremesh HFN by an elliptic flow and the flow of gas in shale matrix by a novel analytical solution accounting for contributions from both free and adsorbed gases stored in the pore space. WPM simulation is validated by testing against numerical simulations using a commercially available reservoir production simulator. Due to the analytical nature of WFM and WPM, both hydraulic fracturing and gas production simulations run very fast on a regular personal computer and are suitable for hydraulic fracturing job design and optimization. A case study is presented to demonstrate how a non-optimized hydraulic fracturing job might have been optimized using WFM and WPM simulations.Fig. 1. Ellipsoidal representation of (a) stimulated reservoir and (b) hydraulic fracture network created by hydraulic

  3. Data production models for the CDF experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Antos, J.; Babik, M.; Benjamin, D.; Cabrera, S.; Chan, A.W.; Chen, Y.C.; Coca, M.; Cooper, B.; Genser, K.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hou, S.; Hsieh, T.L.; Jayatilaka, B.; Kraan, A.C.; Lysak, R.; Mandrichenko, I.V.; Robson, A.; Siket, M.; Stelzer, B.; Syu, J.; Teng, P.K.; /Kosice, IEF /Duke U. /Taiwan, Inst. Phys. /University Coll. London /Fermilab /Rockefeller U. /Michigan U. /Pennsylvania U. /Glasgow U. /UCLA /Tsukuba U. /New Mexico U.

    2006-06-01

    The data production for the CDF experiment is conducted on a large Linux PC farm designed to meet the needs of data collection at a maximum rate of 40 MByte/sec. We present two data production models that exploits advances in computing and communication technology. The first production farm is a centralized system that has achieved a stable data processing rate of approximately 2 TByte per day. The recently upgraded farm is migrated to the SAM (Sequential Access to data via Metadata) data handling system. The software and hardware of the CDF production farms has been successful in providing large computing and data throughput capacity to the experiment.

  4. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  5. The economic and environmental value of genetic improvements in fattening pigs: An integrated dynamic model approach.

    PubMed

    Niemi, J K; Sevón-Aimonen, M-L; Stygar, A H; Partanen, K

    2015-08-01

    The selection of animals for improved performance affects the profitability of pig fattening and has environmental consequences. The goal of this paper was to examine how changes in genetic and market parameters impact the biophysical (feeding patterns, timing of slaughter, nitrogen excretion) and economic (return per pig space unit) results describing pig fattening in a Finnish farm. The analysis can be viewed as focusing on terminal line breeding goals. An integrated model using recursive stochastic dynamic programming and a biological pig growth model was used to estimate biophysical results and economic values. Combining these models allowed us to provide more accurate estimates for the value of genetic improvement and, thus, provide better feedback to animal breeding programs than the traditional approach, which is based on fixed management patterns. Besides the benchmark scenario, the results were simulated for 5 other scenarios. In each scenario, genotype was improved regarding daily growth potential, carcass lean meat content, or the parameters of the Gompertz growth curve (maturing rate [], adult weight of protein [α], and adult weight of lipid mass []). The change in each parameter was equal to approximately 1 SD genetic improvement (ceteris paribus). Increasing , , daily growth potential, or carcass lean meat content increased the return on pig space unit by €12.60, €7.60, €4.10, or €2.90 per year, respectively, whereas an increase in decreased the return by €3.10. The genetic improvement in and resulted in the highest decrease in nitrogen excretion calculated in total or per kilogram of carcass gain but only under the optimal feeding pattern. Simulated changes in the Gompertz growth function parameters imply greater changes in ADG and lean meat content than changes in scenarios focusing on improving ADG and lean meat content directly. The economic value of genetic improvements as well as the quantity of nitrogen excreted during the fattening

  6. Putting mechanisms into crop production models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Crop simulation models dynamically predict processes of carbon, nitrogen, and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to the point of predicting yield and production at crop maturity. A brief history of these models is reviewed, and their level of mechanism for assimilation and respiration, ran...

  7. Final Technical Report on Development of an Economic and Efficient Biodiesel production Process (NC)

    SciTech Connect

    Tirla, Cornelia; Dooling, Thomas A.; Smith, Rachel B.; Shi, Xinyan; Shahbazi, Abolghasem

    2014-03-19

    The Biofuels Team at The University of North Carolina at Pembroke and North Carolina A&T State University carried out a joint research project aimed at developing an efficient process to produce biodiesel. In this project, the team developed and tested various types of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts which could replace the conventionally used soluble potassium hydroxide catalyst which, traditionally, must be separated and disposed of at the end of the process. As a result of this screening, the homogeneous catalyst choline hydroxide was identified as a potential replacement for the traditional catalyst used in this process, potassium hydroxide, due to its decreased corrosiveness and toxicity. A large number of heterogeneous catalysts were produced and tested in order to determine the scaffold, ion type and ion concentration which would produce optimum yield of biodiesel. The catalyst with 12% calcium on Zeolite β was identified as being highly effective and optimal reaction conditions were identified. Furthermore, a packed bed reactor utilizing this type of catalyst was designed, constructed and tested in order to further optimize the process. An economic analysis of the viability of the project showed that the cost of an independent farmer to produce the fuelstock required to produce biodiesel exceeds the cost of petroleum diesel under current conditions and that therefore without incentives, farmers would not be able to benefit economically from producing their own fuel. An educational website on biodiesel production and analysis was produced and a laboratory experiment demonstrating the production of biodiesel was developed and implemented into the Organic Chemistry II laboratory curriculum at UNCP. Five workshops for local farmers and agricultural agents were held in order to inform the broader community about the various fuelstock available, their cultivation and the process and advantages of biodiesel use and production. This project fits both

  8. A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madadi, Najmeh; Yew Wong, Kuan

    2013-06-01

    Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

  9. Assessment of free-living nitrogen fixing microorganisms for commercial nitrogen fixation. [economic analysis of ammonia production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stokes, B. O.; Wallace, C. J.

    1978-01-01

    Ammonia production by Klebsiella pneumoniae is not economical with present strains and improving nitrogen fixation to its theoretical limits in this organism is not sufficient to achieve economic viability. Because the value of both the hydrogen produced by this organism and the methane value of the carbon source required greatly exceed the value of the ammonia formed, ammonia (fixed nitrogen) should be considered the by-product. The production of hydrogen by KLEBSIELLA or other anaerobic nitrogen fixers should receive additional study, because the activity of nitrogenase offers a significant improvement in hydrogen production. The production of fixed nitrogen in the form of cell mass by Azotobacter is also uneconomical and the methane value of the carbon substrate exceeds the value of the nitrogen fixed. Parametric studies indicate that as efficiencies approach the theoretical limits the economics may become competitive. The use of nif-derepressed microorganisms, particularly blue-green algae, may have significant potential for in situ fertilization in the environment.

  10. BOREAS TE-17 Production Efficiency Model Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Forrest G.; Papagno, Andrea (Editor); Goetz, Scott J.; Goward, Samual N.; Prince, Stephen D.; Czajkowski, Kevin; Dubayah, Ralph O.

    2000-01-01

    A Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) version of the Global Production Efficiency Model (http://www.inform.umd.edu/glopem/) was developed by TE-17 (Terrestrial Ecology) to generate maps of gross and net primary production, autotrophic respiration, and light use efficiency for the BOREAS region. This document provides basic information on the model and how the maps were generated. The data generated by the model are stored in binary image-format files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

  11. Technical and economic feasibility of enzyme hydrolysis for ethanol production from wood. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hagler, R.W.; Stahr, J.J.

    1985-06-01

    Under the sponsorship of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), Arthur D. Little, Inc., examined the feasibility of enzyme hydrolysis for ethanol production from wood. The feasibility study included a plant location in Jefferson County, New York, and the use of deproteinated cheese whey as the substrate for enzyme production. Debarked northern hardwoods were selected as feedstock for the enzyme hydrolysis operation. The preliminary process engineering design was based on a plant receiving about 450 dry tons of hardwood per day and producing about 5.5 million gallons of denatured ethanol per year. By-products included cogenerated electricity and a protein-rich animal feed. Total capital investment for the facility was estimated to be $60.575 million in 1984. Two base case cash flow analyses were carried out, one with NYSERDA input variables and one with SERI input variables. These resulted in required ethanol selling prices of $3.87 per gallon and $4.45 per gallon, respectively. Given the disparity between these predictions and the current actual price of ethanol, it was concluded that the enzyme hydrolysis of wood is not presently economic. Further research and development are also needed to resolve remaining technological uncertainties and establish markets for new products. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  12. A complete industrial system for economical succinic acid production by Actinobacillus succinogenes.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Zheng, Xiao-Yu; Fang, Xiao-Jiang; Liu, Shu-Wen; Chen, Ke-Quan; Jiang, Min; Wei, Ping; Ouyang, Ping-Kai

    2011-05-01

    An industrial fermentation system using lignocellulosic hydrolysate, waste yeast hydrolysate, and mixed alkali to achieve high-yield, economical succinic acid production by Actinobacillus succinogenes was developed. Lignocellulosic hydrolysate and waste yeast hydrolysate were used efficiently as carbon sources and nitrogen source instead of the expensive glucose and yeast extract. Moreover, as a novel method for regulating pH mixed alkalis (Mg(OH)(2) and NaOH) were first used to replace the expensive MgCO(3) for succinic acid production. Using the three aforementioned substitutions, the total fermentation cost decreased by 55.9%, and 56.4 g/L succinic acid with yield of 0.73 g/g was obtained, which are almost the same production level as fermentation with glucose, yeast extract and MgCO(3). Therefore, the cheap carbon and nitrogen sources, as well as the mixed alkaline neutralize could be efficiently used instead of expensive composition for industrial succinic acid production. PMID:21470857

  13. Utilization of pentoses from sugarcane biomass: techno-economics of biogas vs. butanol production.

    PubMed

    Mariano, Adriano Pinto; Dias, Marina O S; Junqueira, Tassia L; Cunha, Marcelo P; Bonomi, Antonio; Filho, Rubens Maciel

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents the techno-economics of greenfield projects of an integrated first and second-generation sugarcane biorefinery in which pentose sugars obtained from sugarcane biomass are used either for biogas (consumed internally in the power boiler) or n-butanol production via the ABE batch fermentation process. The complete sugarcane biorefinery was simulated using Aspen Plus®. Although the pentoses stream available in the sugarcane biorefinery gives room for a relatively small biobutanol plant (7.1-12 thousand tonnes per year), the introduction of butanol and acetone to the product portfolio of the biorefinery increased and diversified its revenues. Whereas the IRR of the investment on a biorefinery with biogas production is 11.3%, IRR varied between 13.1% and 15.2% in the butanol production option, depending on technology (regular or engineered microorganism with improved butanol yield and pentoses conversion) and target market (chemicals or automotive fuels). Additional discussions include the effects of energy-efficient technologies for butanol processing on the profitability of the biorefinery. PMID:23748087

  14. Economic Disadvantage in Complex Family Systems: Expansion of Family Stress Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnett, Melissa A.

    2008-01-01

    Economic disadvantage is associated with multiple risks to early socioemotional development. This article reviews research regarding family stress frameworks to model the pathways from economic disadvantage to negative child outcomes via family processes. Future research in this area should expand definitions of family and household to incorporate…

  15. Oxygen production System Models for Lunar ISRU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo

    2007-01-01

    In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) seeks to make human space exploration feasible; by using available resources from a planet or the moon to produce consumables, parts, and structures that otherwise would be brought from Earth. Producing these in situ reduces the mass of such that must be launched and doing so allows more payload mass' for each mission. The production of oxygen from lunar regolith, for life support and propellant, is one of the tasks being studied under ISRU. NASA is currently funding three processes that have shown technical merit for the production of oxygen from regolith: Molten Salt Electrolysis, Hydrogen Reduction of Ilmenite, and Carbothermal Reduction. The ISRU program is currently developing system models of, the , abovementioned processes to: (1) help NASA in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the oxygen production process, (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume.of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters, and (5) integrate into the overall end-to-end ISRU system model, which could be integrated with mission architecture models. The oxygen production system model is divided into modules that represent unit operations (e.g., reactor, water electrolyzer, heat exchanger). Each module is modeled theoretically using Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), and will be validated using experimental data from on-going laboratory work. This modularity (plug-n-play) feature of each unit operation allows the use of the same model on different oxygen production systems simulations resulting in comparable results. In this presentation, preliminary results for mass, power, volume will be presented along with brief description of the oxygen production system model.

  16. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  17. Evaluation of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oblow, E. M.

    1982-10-01

    An evaluation was made of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the Long-term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) energy economy model. Conversion processes are the main modeling subunit in LEAP used to represent energy conversion industries and are supposedly based on the classical economic theory of the firm. Questions about uniqueness and existence of LEAP solutions and their relation to classical equilibrium economic theory prompted the study. An analysis of classical theory and LEAP model equations was made to determine their exact relationship. The conclusions drawn from this analysis were that LEAP theory is not consistent with the classical theory of the firm. Specifically, the capacity factor formalism used by LEAP does not support a classical interpretation in terms of a technological production function for energy conversion processes. The economic implications of this inconsistency are suboptimal process operation and short term negative profits in years where plant operation should be terminated. A new capacity factor formalism, which retains the behavioral features of the original model, is proposed to resolve these discrepancies.

  18. Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS). Skill Categories Included within Defense Impact Modeling System Skilled Labor Demand Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Department of Defense, Washington, DC.

    Updated Defense Economic Impact Modeling System (DEIMS) manpower data are provided. Skilled-labor demand by job categories and industrial sectors are estimated for 163 skill categories. Both defense and non-defense demands are presented for the years 1982 to 1987. The average annual percentage growth for the time period is also estimated. Data are…

  19. Migration in an economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces.

    PubMed

    Milne, W J; Foot, D K; Dungan, D P

    1985-09-01

    "This paper is a description of the structure of a multiregion economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces. An important part of the demographic model is the estimation of net migration equations based on a human capital approach and incorporating the adding-up constraint that arises since the sum of the net migration flows across all provinces must be 0 in each period. These endogenous migration flows allow for variables from the economic model (wage rates and unemployment rates) to influence the source population, the labour force and, therefore, the unemployment rate and other variables in the economic model." The model is used in simulation experiments in order to illustrate the interaction between economic and demographic factors and how this interaction affects the impact of policies. PMID:12267308

  20. Different effects of economic and structural performance indexes on model construction of structural topology optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, G. L.; Sui, Y. K.

    2015-10-01

    The objective and constraint functions related to structural optimization designs are classified into economic and performance indexes in this paper. The influences of their different roles in model construction of structural topology optimization are also discussed. Furthermore, two structural topology optimization models, optimizing a performance index under the limitation of an economic index, represented by the minimum compliance with a volume constraint (MCVC) model, and optimizing an economic index under the limitation of a performance index, represented by the minimum weight with a displacement constraint (MWDC) model, are presented. Based on a comparison of numerical example results, the conclusions can be summarized as follows: (1) under the same external loading and displacement performance conditions, the results of the MWDC model are almost equal to those of the MCVC model; (2) the MWDC model overcomes the difficulties and shortcomings of the MCVC model; this makes the MWDC model more feasible in model construction; (3) constructing a model of minimizing an economic index under the limitations of performance indexes is better at meeting the needs of practical engineering problems and completely satisfies safety and economic requirements in mechanical engineering, which have remained unchanged since the early days of mechanical engineering.

  1. Environmental and economic analysis of end of life management options for an HDPE product using a life cycle thinking approach.

    PubMed

    Simões, Carla L; Pinto, Lígia M Costa; Bernardo, C A

    2014-05-01

    Manufacturers have been increasingly considering the implication of materials used in commercial products and the management of such products at the end of their useful lives (as waste or as post-consumer secondary materials). The present work describes the application of the life cycle thinking approach to a plastic product, specifically an anti-glare lamellae (used for road safety applications) made with high-density polyethylene (HDPE). This study shows that optimal environmental and economic outcomes associated with this product can be realized by recovering the material at the end of its useful life (end of life, EoL) and by using the recycled HDPE as a raw material in the production of new similar products. The study confirmed the applicability of the life cycle thinking approach by industry in sustainable products development, supporting the development of robust environmental and economic guidelines. PMID:24692456

  2. Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

    PubMed Central

    West, R R

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. DESIGN: A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. SETTING: A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. RESULTS: Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. CONCLUSIONS: The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision. PMID:8935452

  3. Modeling and managing the interactions between hydrology, ecology and economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel P.

    2006-09-01

    SummaryThis paper outlines a seven-step planning process being implemented on two large river basin studies currently underway in North America. One study involves the management of lake levels and flows in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River on the border between Canada and the US. The International Joint Commission that oversees all water management issues between these two countries supports this study. The other involves the Greater Everglades region in south Florida in the US. In both studies multiple agencies and multiple stakeholders are involved in an attempt to find better ways of meeting multiple economic, environmental and ecological objectives. Both studies were motivated by the desire to find ways of improving the habitat of ecosystems within their basins and at the same time providing no less, or if possible greater, economic and social benefits that are derived from reliable water supplies, flows, levels, and flood protection. The seven-step planning process attempts to provide a very transparent and fully participatory approach toward reaching a common vision among all agencies and stakeholders as to how their hydrological system can be adaptively managed to better meet current and future objectives. This paper presents the seven steps and focuses on how all the values of various objectives are being defined and considered, together, in an attempt to define what water management policy works best and to an agreement on just what is 'best'.

  4. An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forney, William M.; Raunikar, Ronald P.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; Mishra, Shruti K.

    2012-01-01

    Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38

  5. What Geological, Economic, or Policy Forces Might Limit Fossil Fuel Production?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinberg, R.

    2015-12-01

    In order to ensure a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it has been estimated that total carbon dioxide emissions between 2011-2050 must be capped at roughly 1,100 gigatons.[1] However, some estimates calculate that global fossil fuel reserves—including unconventional oil and gas—hold at least three times this amount of potential greenhouse gas emissions.[2]What socio-political, technological, or economic forces are most likely to keep these energy resources from being burned? While it is difficult to predict with specificity what combination of technological, geological, or human factors will significantly minimize global fossil fuel production, there are at least four key potential drivers: 1. Under-investment and the economics of unconventional oil and natural gas; 2. International policy, driven by citizen demand and leadership from key nations; 3. Massive deployment of renewable energy sources and other technological solutions; and 4. Large-scale energy curtailment resulting from global economic contraction. We will explore the implications, viability, and consequences of each of these potential factors. [1] [1]United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fifteenth Session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its Fifteenth Session. United Nations Climate Change Conf. Report 43 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf (UNFCC, 2009) [2] Raupach, M. R. et al. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Clim. Chang. 4, 873-879 (2014)

  6. Restrictions on antimicrobial use in food animal production: an international regulatory and economic survey

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    . Conclusions A majority of leading U.S. trade partners have more stringent policies regarding antibiotic use and veterinary oversight in food animal production. Available data suggest that restrictions on growth promotion may not be detrimental to production in the long run, although additional research could be useful. There is evidence that discordance between the U.S. and other jurisdictions with respect to antimicrobial use in food animals may be detrimental to U.S. access to export markets for food animal products. The available economic evidence strengthens the rationale for restricting antimicrobial use in U.S. food animals. PMID:24131666

  7. ECONOMIC SIMULATION MODELING OF REPROCESSING ALTERNATIVES FOR CORN MASA BYPRODUCTS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing production of corn masa for tortillas, chips, and related snack foods is resulting in large quantities of organic residuals requiring environmentally sound management. These byproduct streams appear suitable for use as livestock feed material, thus eliminating landfilling costs. Possibi...

  8. Charged Higgs boson in the economical 3-3-1 model

    SciTech Connect

    Soa, D. V. Thuy, D. L.; Thuc, L. N.; Huong, T. T.

    2007-12-15

    The SU(3){sub C} - SU(3){sub L} - U(1){sub X} gauge model with two Higgs triplets (the economical 3-3-1 model) is presented. The minimal Higgs potential is considered in detail, and new Higgs bosons with the mass proportional to the bilepton mass are predicted. In the effective approximation, the charged Higgs bosons H{sub 2}{sup {+-}} are scalar bileptons, while the neutral scalar bosons H{sup 0} and H{sub 1}{sup 0} do not carry a lepton number. The couplings of the charged Higgs bosons to leptons and quarks are given. We show that Yukawa couplings of H{sub 2}{sup {+-}} to ordinary leptons and quarks are lepton-number violating. The pair production of H{sub 2}{sup {+-}} at high-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} colliders with the polarization of the e{sup +}, e{sup -} beams is studied in detail. A numerical evaluation shows that, if the Higgs mass is not too heavy, then the reaction can give an observable cross section in future colliders at a high degree of polarization. The reaction e{sup +}e{sup -} {sup {yields}} H{sub 2}{sup {+-}}W{sup {+-}} is also examined. We show that the production cross sections of H{sub 2}{sup {+-}}W{sup {+-}} are very small, much below the pair production of H{sub 2}{sup {+-}}, and, therefore, the associated production of H{sub 2}{sup {+-}} and W{sup {+-}} is, in general, not expected to lead to easily observable signals in the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation.

  9. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  10. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  11. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  12. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  13. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  14. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  15. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  16. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  17. ECONOMICS AND PERFORMANCE MODELING (AIR POLLUTION TECHNOLOGY BRANCH, AIR POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL DIVISION, NRMRL)

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division's Air Pollution Technology Branch (APTB) is active in the development, refinement, and maintenance of economic and performance evaluation models that provide agency-wide support for estimating costs for air pollution preventio...

  18. Process design and economic analysis of a citrus waste biorefinery with biofuels and limonene as products.

    PubMed

    Lohrasbi, Mehdi; Pourbafrani, Mohammad; Niklasson, Claes; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2010-10-01

    Process design and economic analysis of a biorefinery for the treatment of citrus wastes (CW) at different capacities was carried out. The CW is hydrolyzed using dilute sulfuric acid and then further processed to produce limonene, ethanol and biogas. The total cost of ethanol for base case process with 100,000 tons/year CW capacity was calculated as 0.91 USD/L, assuming 10 USD/ton handling and transportation cost of CW to the plant. However, this price is sensitive to the plant capacity. With constant price of methane and limonene, changing the plant capacity from 25,000 to 400,000 tons CW per year results in reducing ethanol costs from 2.55 to 0.46 USD/L in an economically feasible process. In addition, the ethanol production cost is sensitive to the transportation cost of CW. Increasing this cost from 10 to 30 USD/ton for the base case results in increasing the ethanol costs from 0.91 to 1.42 USD/L. PMID:20488693

  19. Techno-economic comparison of biojet fuel production from lignocellulose, vegetable oil and sugar cane juice.

    PubMed

    Diederichs, Gabriel Wilhelm; Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a techno-economic comparison was performed considering three processes (thermochemical, biochemical and hybrid) for production of jet fuel from lignocellulosic biomass (2G) versus two processes from first generation (1G) feedstocks, including vegetable oil and sugar cane juice. Mass and energy balances were constructed for energy self-sufficient versions of these processes, not utilising any fossil energy sources, using ASPEN Plus® simulations. All of the investigated processes obtained base minimum jet selling prices (MJSP) that is substantially higher than the market jet fuel price (2-4 fold). The 1G process which converts vegetable oil, obtained the lowest MJSPs of $2.22/kg jet fuel while the two most promising 2G processes- the thermochemical (gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis) and hybrid (gasification and biochemical upgrading) processes- reached MJSPs of $2.44/kg and $2.50/kg jet fuel, respectively. According to the economic sensitivity analysis, the feedstock cost and fixed capital investment have the most influence on the MJSP. PMID:27259188

  20. Evaluation of a mallard productivity model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Cowardin, L.M.; Sparling, D.W.

    1986-01-01

    A stochastic model of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) productivity has been developed over a 10-year period and successfully applied to several management questions. Here we review the model and describe some recent uses and improvements that increase its realism and applicability, including naturally occurring changes in wetland habitat, catastrophic weather events, and the migrational homing of mallards. The amount of wetland habitat influenced productivity primarily by affecting the renesting rate. Late snowstorms severely reduced productivity, whereas the loss of nests due to flooding was largely compensated for by increased renesting, often in habitats where hatching rates were better. Migrational homing was shown to be an important phenomenon in population modeling and should be considered when evaluating management plans.

  1. Economic impact of NMMO pretreatment on ethanol and biogas production from pinewood.

    PubMed

    Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2014-01-01

    Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15-37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

  2. Economic Impact of NMMO Pretreatment on Ethanol and Biogas Production from Pinewood

    PubMed Central

    Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

    2014-01-01

    Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15–37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

  3. Restructuring upstream bioprocessing: technological and economical aspects for production of a generic microbial feedstock from wheat.

    PubMed

    Koutinas, A A; Wang, R; Webb, C

    2004-03-01

    Restructuring and optimization of the conventional fermentation industry for fuel and chemical production is necessary to replace petrochemical production routes. Guided by this concept, a novel biorefinery process has been developed as an alternative to conventional upstream processing routes, leading to the production of a generic fermentation feedstock from wheat. The robustness of Aspergillus awamori as enzyme producer is exploited in a continuous fungal fermentation on whole wheat flour. Vital gluten is extracted as an added-value byproduct by the conventional Martin process from a fraction of the overall wheat used. Enzymatic hydrolysis of gluten-free flour by the enzyme complex produced by A. awamori during fermentation produces a liquid stream rich in glucose (320 g/L). Autolysis of fungal cells produces a micronutrient-rich solution similar to yeast extract (1.6 g/L nitrogen, 0.5 g/L phosphorus). The case-specific combination of these two liquid streams can provide a nutrient-complete fermentation medium for a spectrum of microbial bioconversions for the production of such chemicals as organic acids, amino acids, bioethanol, glycerol, solvents, and microbial biodegradable plastics. Preliminary economic analysis has shown that the operating cost required to produce the feedstock is dependent on the plant capacity, cereal market price, presence and market value of added-value byproducts, labor costs, and mode of processing (batch or continuous). Integration of this process in an existing fermentation plant could lead to the production of a generic feedstock at an operating cost lower than the market price of glucose syrup (90% to 99% glucose) in the EU, provided that the plant capacity exceeds 410 m(3)/day. Further process improvements are also suggested. PMID:14760693

  4. Productivity in Physical and Chemical Science Predicts the Future Economic Growth of Developing Countries Better than Other Popular Indices

    PubMed Central

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences. PMID:23776640

  5. Ethanol production from industrial hemp: effect of combined dilute acid/steam pretreatment and economic aspects.

    PubMed

    Kuglarz, Mariusz; Gunnarsson, Ingólfur B; Svensson, Sven-Erik; Prade, Thomas; Johansson, Eva; Angelidaki, Irini

    2014-07-01

    In the present study, combined steam (140-180°C) and dilute-acid pre-hydrolysis (0.0-2.0%) were applied to industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.), as pretreatment for lignocellulosic bioethanol production. The influence of the pretreatment conditions and cultivation type on the hydrolysis and ethanol yields was also evaluated. Pretreatment with 1% sulfuric acid at 180°C resulted in the highest glucose yield (73-74%) and ethanol yield of 75-79% (0.38-0.40 g-ethanol/g-glucose). Taking into account the costs of biomass processing, from field to ethanol facility storage, the field-dried hemp pretreated at the optimal conditions showed positive economic results. The type of hemp cultivation (organic or conventional) did not influence significantly the effectiveness of the pretreatment as well as subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis and ethanol fermentation. PMID:24821202

  6. Estimated economic benefits during the 'decade of vaccines' include treatment savings, gains in labor productivity.

    PubMed

    Stack, Meghan L; Ozawa, Sachiko; Bishai, David M; Mirelman, Andrew; Tam, Yvonne; Niessen, Louis; Walker, Damian G; Levine, Orin S

    2011-06-01

    In 2010 the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation announced a $10 billion commitment over the next ten years to increase access to childhood vaccines in the world's poorest countries. The effort was labeled the "Decade of Vaccines." This study estimates both the short- and long-term economic benefits from the introduction and increased use of six vaccines in seventy-two of the world's poorest countries from 2011 to 2020. Increased rates of vaccination against pneumococcal and Haemophilus influenzae type b pneumonia and meningitis, rotavirus, pertussis, measles, and malaria over the next ten years would save 6.4 million lives and avert 426 million cases of illness, $6.2 billion in treatment costs, and $145 billion in productivity losses. Monetary estimates based on this type of analysis can be used to determine the return on investment in immunization from both the international community and local governments, and they should be considered in policy making. PMID:21653952

  7. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  8. Links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics: a model for information in economics?

    PubMed

    Haven, Emmanuel

    2016-05-28

    This paper tallies the links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics, and attempts to show whether those links can aid in beginning to build a formal template which is usable in economics models where time is (a)symmetric and memory is absent or present. An objective of this paper is to contemplate whether those formalisms can allow us to model information in economics in a novel way. PMID:27091173

  9. A neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production.

    PubMed

    Helie, Sebastien; Roeder, Jessica L; Vucovich, Lauren; Rünger, Dennis; Ashby, F Gregory

    2015-07-01

    Most behaviors unfold in time and include a sequence of submovements or cognitive activities. In addition, most behaviors are automatic and repeated daily throughout life. Yet, relatively little is known about the neurobiology of automatic sequence production. Past research suggests a gradual transfer from the associative striatum to the sensorimotor striatum, but a number of more recent studies challenge this role of the BG in automatic sequence production. In this article, we propose a new neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production in which the main role of the BG is to train cortical-cortical connections within the premotor areas that are responsible for automatic sequence production. The new model is used to simulate four different data sets from human and nonhuman animals, including (1) behavioral data (e.g., RTs), (2) electrophysiology data (e.g., single-neuron recordings), (3) macrostructure data (e.g., TMS), and (4) neurological circuit data (e.g., inactivation studies). We conclude with a comparison of the new model with existing models of automatic sequence production and discuss a possible new role for the BG in automaticity and its implication for Parkinson's disease. PMID:25671503

  10. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

    2013-10-15

    Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute

  11. BEN: A model to calculate the economic benefit of noncompliance. User's manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-10-01

    The Agency developed the BEN computer model to calculate the economic benefit a violator derives from delaying or avoiding compliance with environmental statutes. In general, the Agency uses the BEN computer model to assist its own staff in developing settlement penalty figures. While the primary purpose of the BEN model is to calculate the economic benefit of noncompliance, the model may also be used to calculate the after tax net present value of a pollution prevention or mitigation project and to calculate 'cash outs' in Superfund cases. The document, the BEN User's Manual, contains all the formulas that make up the BEN computer model and is freely available to the public upon request.

  12. An economic-demographic model of the United States labor market.

    PubMed

    Anderson, J M

    1982-01-01

    An econometric model that has been developed to investigate the effects of demographic change on the US economy is described. The specific demographic features examined are the sizes of age sex groups in the US working age population. The size of these groups from now through the end of the 20th century will be determined primarily by past and current levels of fertility so they can be forecast with some degree of confidence. The model expands both the domain and accuracy of longterm economic forecasting by making use of the considerable quantity of demographic information that can be forecast, at least through this century, with a fairly great degree of confidence. In addition to economic forecasting, this study of the impact of demographic changes on the US labor market contributes to the investigation of the interrelationships among economic and demographic changes. The task of the model is as follows: given an exogenous projection of fertility and mortality rates and net immigration and given exogenous forecasts of variables such as rates of technical change, government demand for goods and services, and tax rates, the model forecasts variables characterizing the labor market and the macroeconomy. The model uses the fundamental principles of supply and demand, the economic theory of production, and the theory of household allocation of time and income to draw the implications of changes in demographic variables for the labor market and the economy. The crux of the model is a set of relationships depicting the behavior of the US labor market. In the labor market submodel, the input of labor of each of 16 age sex groups and its piece in each period is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. The 16 demographic groups are males and females, respectively, of ages 14-15, 16-17, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 and over. Equations depicting the supply of and demand for labor of various demographic groups are estimated and provide the behavioral

  13. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  14. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  15. Modelling gambling time and economic assignments to weekly trip behaviour to gambling venues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, R. G. V.; Marshall, D. C.

    2005-12-01

    The study of gambling and its socio-economic structures should be an area of growing interest to a society-relevant geography. In Australia, electronic gaming machines (EGMs) have dominated recent gambling industry growth. As EGMs have diffused through the urban hierarchy, there is a growing recognition that EGM distribution often correlates with levels of socio-economic status. Marshall and Baker (2002) showed that a similar EGM socio-economic assignment model evolved in the capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne, Australia, even though these cities have substantially different historical and legislative EGM environments. This paper looks at a related space-time model in the context of trip-making to gaming venues, relative to an Index of Economic Resources from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A simulation of the model predicts different types of gambling behaviour. It also shows that venue hours can affect time-economic trip behaviour. The model is then applied to EGM gambling data gathered in an urban hierarchy on the north coast of New South Wales, Australia. The results define a gaussian-type low involvement ‘recreational random’ gambling for patrons, whereas for more involved gamblers (in terms of time spent gambling), there are discrete behavioural periods over the week for a wider economic cohort. This leads to the possibility of a spectrum of time-economic EGM gambling assignments for participating households in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.

  16. Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters.

    PubMed

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of the cost of potential disasters, including indirect economic consequences, are an important input in the design of risk management strategies. The adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) inventory model is a tool to assess indirect disaster losses and to analyze their drivers. It is based on an input-output structure, but it also (i) explicitly represents production bottlenecks and input scarcity and (ii) introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. This modeling strategy distinguishes between (i) essential supplies that cannot be stocked (e.g., electricity, water) and whose scarcity can paralyze all economic activity; (ii) essential supplies that can be stocked at least temporarily (e.g., steel, chemicals), whose scarcity creates problems only over the medium term; and (iii) supplies that are not essential in the production process, whose scarcity is problematic only over the long run and are therefore easy to replace with imports. The model is applied to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and identifies two periods in the disaster aftermath: (1) the first year, during which production bottlenecks are responsible for large output losses; (2) the rest of the reconstruction period, during which bottlenecks are inexistent and output losses lower. This analysis also suggests important research questions and policy options to mitigate disaster-related output losses. PMID:23834029

  17. Wheat forecast economics effect study. [value of improved information on crop inventories, production, imports and exports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehra, R. K.; Rouhani, R.; Jones, S.; Schick, I.

    1980-01-01

    A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

  18. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    PubMed

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  19. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Conall H.; Edmunds, W. John

    2015-01-01

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  20. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  1. A process model to estimate biodiesel production costs.

    PubMed

    Haas, Michael J; McAloon, Andrew J; Yee, Winnie C; Foglia, Thomas A

    2006-03-01

    'Biodiesel' is the name given to a renewable diesel fuel that is produced from fats and oils. It consists of the simple alkyl esters of fatty acids, most typically the methyl esters. We have developed a computer model to estimate the capital and operating costs of a moderately-sized industrial biodiesel production facility. The major process operations in the plant were continuous-process vegetable oil transesterification, and ester and glycerol recovery. The model was designed using contemporary process simulation software, and current reagent, equipment and supply costs, following current production practices. Crude, degummed soybean oil was specified as the feedstock. Annual production capacity of the plant was set at 37,854,118 l (10 x 10(6)gal). Facility construction costs were calculated to be US dollar 11.3 million. The largest contributors to the equipment cost, accounting for nearly one third of expenditures, were storage tanks to contain a 25 day capacity of feedstock and product. At a value of US dollar 0.52/kg (dollar 0.236/lb) for feedstock soybean oil, a biodiesel production cost of US dollar 0.53/l (dollar 2.00/gal) was predicted. The single greatest contributor to this value was the cost of the oil feedstock, which accounted for 88% of total estimated production costs. An analysis of the dependence of production costs on the cost of the feedstock indicated a direct linear relationship between the two, with a change of US dollar 0.020/l (dollar 0.075/gal) in product cost per US dollar 0.022/kg (dollar 0.01/lb) change in oil cost. Process economics included the recovery of coproduct glycerol generated during biodiesel production, and its sale into the commercial glycerol market as an 80% w/w aqueous solution, which reduced production costs by approximately 6%. The production cost of biodiesel was found to vary inversely and linearly with variations in the market value of glycerol, increasing by US dollar 0.0022/l (dollar 0.0085/gal) for every US

  2. Social and Economic Effects of Large-Scale Energy Development in Rural Areas: An Assessment Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murdock, Steve H.; Leistritz, F. Larry

    General development, structure, and uses of a computerized impact projection model, the North Dakota Regional Environmental Assessment Program (REAP) Economic-Demographic Assessment Model, were studied not only to describe a model developed to meet informational needs of local decision makers (especially in a rural area undergoing development),…

  3. Models of Temporal Discounting 1937-2000: An Interdisciplinary Exchange between Economics and Psychology.

    PubMed

    Grüne-Yanoff, Till

    2015-12-01

    Today's models of temporal discounting are the result of multiple interdisciplinary exchanges between psychology and economics. Although these exchanges did not result in an integrated discipline, they had important effects on all disciplines involved. The paper describes these exchanges from the 1930s onwards, focusing on two episodes in particular: an attempted synthesis by psychiatrist George Ainslie and others in the 1970s; and the attempted application of this new discounting model by a generation of economists and psychologists in the 1980s, which ultimately ended in the diversity of measurements disappointment. I draw four main conclusions. First, multiple notions of temporal discounting must be conceptually distinguished. Second, behavioral economics is not an integration or unification of psychology and economics. Third, the analysis identifies some central disciplinary markers that distinguish modeling strategies in economics and psychology. Finally, it offers a case of interdisciplinary success that does not fit the currently dominant account of interdisciplinarity as integration. PMID:26554646

  4. National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit North American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.

  5. Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-07-01

    Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

  6. Kinetic models for socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maldarella, Dario; Pareschi, Lorenzo

    2012-02-01

    In this paper we introduce a simple model for a financial market characterized by a single stock or good and an interplay between two different trader populations, chartists and fundamentalists, which determine the price dynamics of the stock. The model has been inspired by the microscopic Lux-Marchesi model (Lux and Marchesi (2000, 1999) [3,25]). The introduction of kinetic equations permits to study the asymptotic behavior of the investments and the price distributions and to characterize the regimes of lognormal behavior and the formation of power law tails.

  7. Modeling of asteroidal dust production rates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durda, Daniel D.; Dermott, Stanley F.; Gustafson, Bo A. S.

    1992-01-01

    The production rate of dust associated with the prominent Hirayama asteroid families and the background asteroidal population are modeled with the intent of using the families as a calibrator of mainbelt dust production. However, the dust production rates of asteroid families may be highly stochastic; there is probably more than an order of magnitude variation in the total area of dust associated with a family. Over 4.5 x 10(exp 9) years of collisional evolution, the volume (mass) of a family is ground down by an order of magnitude, suggesting a similar loss from the entire mainbelt population. Our collisional models show that the number of meteoroids deliverable to Earth also varies stochastically, but only by a factor of 2 to 3.

  8. Applications products of aviation forecast models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garthner, John P.

    1988-01-01

    A service called the Optimum Path Aircraft Routing System (OPARS) supplies products based on output data from the Naval Oceanographic Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), a model run on a Cyber-205 computer. Temperatures and winds are extracted from the surface to 100 mb, approximately 55,000 ft. Forecast winds are available in six-hour time steps.

  9. Fast Growing Plantations for Wood Production – Integration of Ecological Effects and Economic Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Bredemeier, Michael; Busch, Gerald; Hartmann, Linda; Jansen, Martin; Richter, Falk; Lamersdorf, Norbert P.

    2015-01-01

    Biomass crops are perceived as a feasible means to substitute sizeable amounts of fossil fuel in the future. A prospect of CO2 reduction (resp. CO2 neutrality) is credited to biomass fuels, and thus a potential contribution to mitigate climate change. Short rotation coppices (SRCs) with fast growing poplar and willow trees are an option for producing high yields of woody biomass, which is suitable for both energetic and material use. One negative effect that comes along with the establishment of SRC may be a decrease in groundwater recharge, because high rates of transpiration and interception are anticipated. Therefore, it is important to measure, analyze, and model the effects of SRC-planting on landscape water budgets. To analyze the effects on the water budget, a poplar SRC plot was studied by measuring hydrological parameters to be used in the hydrological model WaSim. Results reveal very low or even missing ground water recharge for SRC compared to agricultural land use or grassland, especially succeeding dry years. However, this strong effect on plot level is moderated on the larger spatial scale of catchment level, for which the modeling was also performed. In addition to water, nutrient fluxes and budgets were studied. Nitrogen is still a crucial issue in today’s agriculture. Intensive fertilization or increased applications of manure from concentrated livestock breeding are often leading to high loads of nitrate leaching, or enhanced N2O emissions to the atmosphere on arable crop fields. SRC or agroforestry systems on former crop land may offer an option to decrease such N losses, while simultaneously producing woody biomass. This is mainly due to the generally smaller N requirements of woody vegetation, which usually entail no need for any fertilization. The trees supply deep and permanent rooting systems, which can be regarded as a “safety net” to prevent nutrient leaching. Thus, SRC altogether can help to diminish N eutrophication. It is

  10. Fast Growing Plantations for Wood Production - Integration of Ecological Effects and Economic Perspectives.

    PubMed

    Bredemeier, Michael; Busch, Gerald; Hartmann, Linda; Jansen, Martin; Richter, Falk; Lamersdorf, Norbert P

    2015-01-01

    Biomass crops are perceived as a feasible means to substitute sizeable amounts of fossil fuel in the future. A prospect of CO2 reduction (resp. CO2 neutrality) is credited to biomass fuels, and thus a potential contribution to mitigate climate change. Short rotation coppices (SRCs) with fast growing poplar and willow trees are an option for producing high yields of woody biomass, which is suitable for both energetic and material use. One negative effect that comes along with the establishment of SRC may be a decrease in groundwater recharge, because high rates of transpiration and interception are anticipated. Therefore, it is important to measure, analyze, and model the effects of SRC-planting on landscape water budgets. To analyze the effects on the water budget, a poplar SRC plot was studied by measuring hydrological parameters to be used in the hydrological model WaSim. Results reveal very low or even missing ground water recharge for SRC compared to agricultural land use or grassland, especially succeeding dry years. However, this strong effect on plot level is moderated on the larger spatial scale of catchment level, for which the modeling was also performed. In addition to water, nutrient fluxes and budgets were studied. Nitrogen is still a crucial issue in today's agriculture. Intensive fertilization or increased applications of manure from concentrated livestock breeding are often leading to high loads of nitrate leaching, or enhanced N2O emissions to the atmosphere on arable crop fields. SRC or agroforestry systems on former crop land may offer an option to decrease such N losses, while simultaneously producing woody biomass. This is mainly due to the generally smaller N requirements of woody vegetation, which usually entail no need for any fertilization. The trees supply deep and permanent rooting systems, which can be regarded as a "safety net" to prevent nutrient leaching. Thus, SRC altogether can help to diminish N eutrophication. It is important to

  11. Privatization: The Use of Risk, Economic and Finance Models to Ensure Its Success

    SciTech Connect

    Jaksch, John A.; Weimar, Mark R.; Young, Joan K.; Taylor, William J.; Furlong, Peter T.; Feldman, Roger D.; Diprinzio, Ray

    2001-12-01

    The article describes the use of risk, economic and financial models as they were used to help DOE in their decision-making processes on TWRS Privatization. The article describes how the models were used to allocate risk between the contractor and DOE, evaluate whether DOE should accept certain risk allocations, how the economic and financial models were used to evaluate whether the government was receiving the best bid price and whether any money was being saved by using privatization, and evaluated alternative financing schemes. The paper also describes how the the financial model was used to evaluate and negotiate the pricing structure which became a part of the contract.

  12. Pebble Bed Reactor Dust Production Model

    SciTech Connect

    Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Joshua J. Cogliati

    2008-09-01

    The operation of pebble bed reactors, including fuel circulation, can generate graphite dust, which in turn could be a concern for internal components; and to the near field in the remote event of a break in the coolant circuits. The design of the reactor system must, therefore, take the dust into account and the operation must include contingencies for dust removal and for mitigation of potential releases. Such planning requires a proper assessment of the dust inventory. This paper presents a predictive model of dust generation in an operating pebble bed with recirculating fuel. In this preliminary work the production model is based on the use of the assumption of proportionality between the dust production and the normal force and distance traveled. The model developed in this work uses the slip distances and the inter-pebble forces computed by the authors’ PEBBLES. The code, based on the discrete element method, simulates the relevant static and kinetic friction interactions between the pebbles as well as the recirculation of the pebbles through the reactor vessel. The interaction between pebbles and walls of the reactor vat is treated using the same approach. The amount of dust produced is proportional to the wear coefficient for adhesive wear (taken from literature) and to the slip volume, the product of the contact area and the slip distance. The paper will compare the predicted volume with the measured production rates. The simulation tallies the dust production based on the location of creation. Two peak production zones from intra pebble forces are predicted within the bed. The first zone is located near the pebble inlet chute due to the speed of the dropping pebbles. The second peak zone occurs lower in the reactor with increased pebble contact force due to the weight of supported pebbles. This paper presents the first use of a Discrete Element Method simulation of pebble bed dust production.

  13. Toward a new modeling of international economics: An attempt to reformulate an international trade model based on real option theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujita, Yasunori

    2007-09-01

    Reformulation of economics by physics has been carried out intensively to reveal many features of the asset market, which were missed in the classical economic theories. The present paper attempts to shed new light on this field. That is, this paper aims at reformulating the international trade model by making use of the real option theory. Based on such a stochastic dynamic model, we examine how the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate makes effect on the welfare of the exporting country.

  14. Forecasting unconventional resource productivity - A spatial Bayesian model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montgomery, J.; O'sullivan, F.

    2015-12-01

    Today's low prices mean that unconventional oil and gas development requires ever greater efficiency and better development decision-making. Inter and intra-field variability in well productivity, which is a major contemporary driver of uncertainty regarding resource size and its economics is driven by factors including geological conditions, well and completion design (which companies vary as they seek to optimize their performance), and uncertainty about the nature of fracture propagation. Geological conditions are often not be well understood early on in development campaigns, but nevertheless critical assessments and decisions must be made regarding the value of drilling an area and the placement of wells. In these situations, location provides a reasonable proxy for geology and the "rock quality." We propose a spatial Bayesian model for forecasting acreage quality, which improves decision-making by leveraging available production data and provides a framework for statistically studying the influence of different parameters on well productivity. Our approach consists of subdividing a field into sections and forming prior distributions for productivity in each section based on knowledge about the overall field. Production data from wells is used to update these estimates in a Bayesian fashion, improving model accuracy far more rapidly and with less sensitivity to outliers than a model that simply establishes an "average" productivity in each section. Additionally, forecasts using this model capture the importance of uncertainty—either due to a lack of information or for areas that demonstrate greater geological risk. We demonstrate the forecasting utility of this method using public data and also provide examples of how information from this model can be combined with knowledge about a field's geology or changes in technology to better quantify development risk. This approach represents an important shift in the way that production data is used to guide

  15. Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

    2008-12-01

    Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequences for growth, poverty alleviation or environmental sustainability of alternative uses of water resources. To address these key knowledge gaps, we have linked a hydrologic and an economic model of agriculture to investigate how economic decisions affect available water, and vice versa. More specifically, the models are used to predict the effects of the application of Brazilian federal surface water use policies on farmer's net revenues and on the hydrologic system. The Economic Model of Agriculture. A spatially explicit, farm-level model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is developed and used to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors' water use patterns on crop mix choice. A production function comprised of seven categories of non-water-related inputs used in agriculture (land, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, hired labor, family labor and machinery) and four water-related inputs used in agriculture (applied water, irrigation labor, irrigation capital and energy) is estimated. The parameters emerging from this estimated production function are then introduced into a non-linear, net revenue maximization positive mathematical programming algorithm that is used for simulations. The Hydrological Model. MIKE Basin, a semi-distributed hydrology model, is used to calculate water budgets for the SFRB. MIKE Basin calculates discharge at selected nodes by accumulating runoff down the river network; it simulates reservoirs using stage-area-storage and downstream release rule curves. The data used to run the model are discharge to calculate local runoff, precipitation, reference ET, crop

  16. Eco-techno-economic synthesis of process routes for the production of zinc using combinatorial optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudhölter, S.; Krüger, J.; Reuter, M. A.

    1996-12-01

    The demands placed on the environmental and social acceptability of metallurgical processing technology are rising steadily. Of particular importance are the production techniques, products, and disposal of residues. These aspects are affected by the varying compositions of the primary and secondary raw materials processed in the plants and the rapidly changing market situations in the metallurgical industry. Metallurgical engineers have to select “optimal” processes from a vast number of existing technologies for the primary production of zinc and for the processing of zinc containing residues. To enable the engineer to compare these techniques and to choose the right combination of unit operations, a process design methodology is presented here, which has been adapted from methodologies developed in chemical engineering and minerals processing. In a previous article by the authors, a structural parameter approach was introduced, that implements a synthesis model, which includes all unit operations currently implemented in zinc metallurgy. At the basis of this model is a data base containing the details of the unit operations included in the model. In this article, this methodology is expanded to incorporate an unlimited quantity of different components by introducing the simulated annealing optimization technique to generate optimal flow sheets for the production of zinc under varying constraints which include operation costs, metal prices, environmental costs, and split factors for Zn, Pb, Ag, and Fe. Case studies demonstrate the functionality of this metallurgical tool for the hydrometallurgical recovery of zinc including numerous unit operations for the processing of by-products and residues. It will also be demonstrated how this model can be extended to a “waste management” tool that generates processing routes not only for the residues from the zinc industry but also for zinc containing residues from other processes, e.g., EAF dusts.

  17. Economic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  18. Transmission Line Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-10-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are freely available, user-friendly tools that estimate the potential economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The Transmission Line JEDI model can be used to field questions about the economic impacts of transmission lines in a given state, region, or local community. This Transmission Line JEDI User Reference Guide was developed to provide basic instruction on operating the model and understanding the results. This guide also provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data contained in the model.

  19. Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

    1983-01-01

    The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and

  20. Investigating impacts of economic growth on the environment using remote sensing tools: A case study of gross domestic product and net primary production in China from 2001 to 2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Naizhuo

    Pursuing sustainable co-development of economy and environment has been established as a basic national policy by the present Chinese government. However, studies regarding actual outcomes of the co-development policy at the whole Chinese scale are still limited. Detecting China's economic growth and changes of environmental quality will not only contribute to evaluation of outcomes of the co-development policy but more importantly is an opportunity to examine the suitability of the IPAT model and improve our understanding of human-environment interactions. The core of the IPAT theory is an equation where I=PxAxT that models human impact on the environment as a function of changes to population (P), affluence ( A), and technology (T). The IPAT theory emphasizes that economic growth will inevitably produce negative impacts on the environment. Thus, if China's environmental quality declined while economic growth occurred, then the IPAT theory will be substantiated. Otherwise, the suitability of the IPAT theory will be called into question and its tenets must be reconsidered. In this dissertation research I selected gross domestic product (GDP) and net primary production (NPP) as indicators to evaluate production of social and ecological systems respectively. The main study objectives are (1) to develop a methodology to facilitate integration of the two indicators derived from demographic data sources and satellite imagery at different geographic scales, (2) to jointly explore changing patterns of China's economic and ecological production (i.e., spatially and temporally coincident patterns of change in GDP and NPP) across different spatial scales, (3) to analyze whether economic growth has produced negative impacts on ecosystem production and whether the impacts correlate to the economic growth, and finally (4) to discuss whether the IPAT theory is suitable for explaining the joint changes of GDP and NPP in China or if it is in need of modification. To fulfill the