Science.gov

Sample records for przm scenario development

  1. Comparison of leaching predictions based on PRZM3.12, LEACHP, and RZWQM98 using standard scenario modeling.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Scott H; Estes, Tammara L

    2007-06-27

    Regulatory agencies in the NAFTA region use ground water leaching models to help determine risks to ground water resources. The results of three models for leaching predictions are compared using a standard soil and weather scenario currently used by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYDEC) to simulate the Riverhead soil found on Long Island, New York. The three models, PRZM3.12, LEACHP, and RZWQM98, were configured to simulate the behavior of two example molecules in corn, turfgrass, and bare soil. For the bare soil simulations, LEACHP and RZWQM98 predicted similar peak concentrations and timing of peak concentration. Depending on the dissipation rate of the molecule, PRZM3.12 predicted similar to reduced peak concentrations due to the delayed timing to reach the peak concentration. For the corn and turfgrass simulations, peak concentrations and timing to reach peak concentrations varied between the models due to differences in how each simulates plant growth and evapotranspiration. PMID:17547417

  2. Development and evaluation of GIS-based ArcPRZM-3 system for spatial modeling of groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbar, Tahir Ali; Lin, Henry; DeGroote, John

    2011-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop and evaluate a GIS-based modeling system called ArcPRZM-3 for spatial modeling of pesticide leaching potential from soil surface towards groundwater. The ArcPRZM-3 was developed by coupling a commonly used FORTRAN-based Pesticide Root Zone Model version 3 (PRZM-3) with user-friendly input and output interfaces through links to GIS using customized programming. A Visual PRZM-3 interface simplifies the entry of model inputs and links to the databases of crops, soils, and pesticides. The ArcPRZM-3 produces user-friendly outputs from the PRZM-3 batch simulations in the form of tables, charts, and maps. The Visual PRZM-3 can be used to run a single simulation for site-specific studies or simultaneous multiple simulations for spatial distributed modeling. The ArcPRZM-3 was applied to simulate maximum dissolved bentazon concentration at 0.75 m soil depth for a period of 2 years. These simulation results were used to develop a health risk map for Woodruff County, Arkansas, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Lifetime Health Advisory Level (USEPA-LHA) of bentazon in drinking water. The ArcPRZM-3 was evaluated by comparing the bentazon detection data from monitoring wells from the same area with the predicted bentazon health risk map. The results showed that 100% of the wells where bentazon was detected were within the high risk category based on the ArcPRZM-3 predictions. However, uncertainty in the ArcPRZM-3 model and the timing of groundwater well monitoring could both complicate the interpretations of the ArcPRZM-3 simulation results.

  3. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  4. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  5. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  6. PRZM-3, A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PESTICIDE AND NITROGEN FATE IN THE CROP ROOT AND UNSATURATED SOIL ZONES: USER'S MANUAL FOR RELEASE 3.12.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    This publication contains documentation for the PRZM-3 model. PRZM-3 is the most recent version of a modeling system that links two subordinate models, PRZM and VADOFT, in order to predict pesticide transport and transformation down through the crop root and unsaturated soil zone...

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  8. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  9. Simulation of carbonfuran and hexazinone movement into groundwater in central Florida using PRZM (Pesticide) Root Zone Model)

    SciTech Connect

    Neary, D.G.; Bush, P.B.; Smith, C.S.; Carsel, R.F.; Phillips, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    PRZM (Pesticide Root Zone Model) was developed to predict movement of pesticides within the plant root zone of soils and below to a depth of 7 m. The model, developed for surface-applied or soil incorporated pesticides, consists of 1) a hydrology component for calculating removal of precipitation by runoff, evapotranspiration, and crop interception, and 2) a chemical transport component for calculating uptake by plants, volatolization, decay, leaching, dispersion, concentration in runoff, retardation, soil solution and solid phase concentrations. Simulations were run for carbofuran, a moderately soluble, highly toxic carbamate insecticide, and hexazinone, a highly soluble, low toxicity triazine herbicide. Simulations and validation field experiments were done on forest sites with deep Typic Quartzipsamment soils overlying the Floridan Aquifer in Central Florida. Implications on use of predicting groundwater contamination and the risks of pesticide use are discussed.

  10. USER MANUAL FOR EXPRESS, THE EXAMS-PRZM EXPOSURE SIMULATION SHELL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Fate and Effects Division (EFED) of EPA's Office of Pesticide Programs(OPP) uses a suite of ORD simulation models for the exposure analysis portion of regulatory risk assessments. These models (PRZM, EXAMS, AgDisp) are complex, process-based simulation codes tha...

  11. USERS MANUAL FOR THE PESTICIDE ROOT ZONE MODEL (PRZM). RELEASE 1

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) simulates the vertical movement of pesticides in the unsaturated soil, within and below the plant root zone, and extending to the water table using generally available input data that are reasonable in spatial and temporal requirements. The mo...

  12. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  13. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  14. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  15. PRZM-2, A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PESTICIDE FATE IN THE CROP ROOT AND UNSATURATED SOIL ZONES: USERS MANUAL FOR RELEASE 2.0

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRZM-2 links two subordinate models--PRZM and VADOFT--in order to predict pesticide transport and transformation down through the crop root and unsaturated zones. RZM is a one-dimensional, finite difference model that accounts for pesticide fate in the crop root zone. his release...

  16. STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. vailable techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultat...

  17. An evaluation of the performance of the soil temperature simulation algorithms used in the PRZM model.

    PubMed

    Tsiros, I X; Dimopoulos, I F

    2007-04-01

    Soil temperature simulation is an important component in environmental modeling since it is involved in several aspects of pollutant transport and fate. This paper deals with the performance of the soil temperature simulation algorithms of the well-known environmental model PRZM. Model results are compared and evaluated based on the basis of its ability to predict in situ measured soil temperature profiles in an experimental plot during a 3-year monitoring study. The evaluation of the performance is based on linear regression statistics and typical model statistical errors such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and the normalized objective function (NOF). Results show that the model required minimal calibration to match the observed response of the system. Values of the determination coefficient R(2) were found to be in all cases around the value of 0.98 indicating a very good agreement between measured and simulated data. Values of the RMSE were found to be in the range of 1.2 to 1.4 degrees C, 1.1 to 1.4 degrees C, 0.9 to 1.1 degrees C, and 0.8 to 1.1 degrees C, for the examined 2, 5, 10 and 20 cm soil depths, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to investigate the influence of various factors involved in the energy balance equation at the ground surface on the soil temperature profiles. The results showed that the model was able to represent important processes affecting the soil temperature regime such as the combined effect of the heat transfer by convection between the ground surface and the atmosphere and the latent heat flux due to soil water evaporation. PMID:17454373

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Current scenario of drug development for leishmaniasis.

    PubMed

    Croft, Simon L; Seifert, Karin; Yardley, Vanessa

    2006-03-01

    Although three new drugs or drug formulations, liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome), miltefosine and paromomycin should be available for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) within the next year, they all suffer from limitations of either cost, specific toxicities or parenteral administration. As part of research to identify better treatments for VL and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), alternative and potentially cheaper formulations of amphotericin B, alklyphosphocholines other than miltefosine and improved formulations of paromomycin for CL have been identified. Other drugs or compounds that have demonstrated activity in experimental rodent models of infection include licochalcone derivatives, quinoline derivatives, bisphosphonates and a maesabalide; further chemistry based upon these leads is warranted. The process for discovery and development of new antileishmanials would also benefit from improved models, for example, transfected parasites, and non invasive methods of measuring parasite load in rodent models of infection. PMID:16778319

  20. Future space development scenarios: Environmental considerations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tangum, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The formation of positive attitudes and values concerning the environment of space, as the basis for assuming a wise stewardship role, is becoming increasingly important as many nations begin their journeys into space. A strong emphasis should be placed on fostering an international space environmental ethics. The object of environmental assessment and management in space should be to define what interplanetary regulatory procedures are needed to avoid unnecessary environmental damage and to monitor the effectiveness of such avoidance. The first requirement for research is to narrow the field of concern to areas where there could be an increased scale of development in space in the immediate future. Research needs to be focused on methodologies for defining the environmental systems involved (e.g., the lunar surface) and then recognizing key variables in the system that are fragile and need to be respected. Criteria for environmental quality should emerge which identify, in the case of lunar surface, how much mining activity can be safely undertaken and what quantity of exhaust gases can be released over a given period of time. Only then will humans be most able to evaluate the likely consequences of ventures into space.

  1. Development of a Dutch Drainpipe exposure scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos; van der Linden, Ton

    2010-05-01

    In the new Dutch pesticide authorisation procedure, the leaching of pesticides to surface waters will be evaluated. The 90th percentile of the peak concentrations in all Dutch ditches will be used for the exposure assessment of aquatic organisms The peak concentration in surface waters is primarily affected by fast transfer routes (amongst others by macropores). For this reason, we developed a macropore version of the pesticide leaching model PEARL. The macropore version of PEARL describes transport of pesticides through the soil matrix and through two preferential flow domains, i.e. a bypass domain and an internal catchment domain. The drainpipe exposure assessment will be done for a single field site. We selected the Andelst field experiment (Scorza Júnior et al., 2004) for this purpose, because at this site sufficient data is available to parameterise and test the model. To assess the effect of weather variability on drainpipe concentration, the model is run for a 20-years period. Hydrological boundary conditions for the 20-years period were taken from nearby weather stations and ground water observation wells. Application of PEARL to this field site showed that the model adequately describes the peak concentration and the later decline of the concentration for two different pesticides. The exposure assessment at the Andelst field site results in 20 annual peak concentrations, that need to be compared with the 90th percentile of the peak concentration in all Dutch ditches, so we performed simulations with a spatially-distributed version of PEARL. This assessment resulted in 20 times n concentrations, with n the number of locations. A contour diagram was used to assess which weather year corresponds with the 90th percentile of all 20 times n peak concentrations. The X-coordinate in the contour diagram corresponds with the percentile of the cumulative distribution of the predicted concentrations due to spatial variability that is obtained for a median weather

  2. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  3. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  4. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  5. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  6. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  7. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  8. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  9. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  10. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  11. Development of computerized scenarios for wildlife exposure to priority substances

    SciTech Connect

    Brownlee, L.J.; McPherson, S.M.; Norton, M.R.; Ward, D.R.; Lloyd, K.M.

    1995-12-31

    A computerized model has been developed to estimate wildlife exposure in the Canadian environment to substances through inhalation and ingestion of food, water and soil. This Windows application was developed in Visual Basic using Microsoft Access databases and designed to make the evaluation process consistent, transparent and efficient. Bird, mammal, amphibian and reptile species were selected on the basis of food guild, body size, habitat and distribution in Canada. Intake rates were estimated using allometric equations or measured intake rates when available. Ingestion rates were estimated from free-living metabolic rates and dietary composition. With the information, the authors will develop the exposure scenarios required for assessments of risk to wildlife from priority substances listed in the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.

  12. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  13. Developing clinical scenarios from a European perspective: successes and challenges.

    PubMed

    Wiseman, Allison; Horton, Khim

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents developmental work involving students from the University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland (n=9), University of Surrey, England (n=8) and University of Ljubljana and University of Maribor, Slovenia (n=5) participating in the Erasmus Intensive Programme. The Erasmus programme offers a two week 'Summer School' in the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Maribor, Slovenia. Using a participatory approach, facilitators from both the UCD and Surrey engaged with students from all of the universities to develop scenarios for simulated learning experiences, in the care of older people, for utilisation on an e learning facility and within the simulated clinical learning environment. Students developed key transferable skills in learning, such as information literacy, cultural diversity, team working, communication, and clinical skills acquisition whilst exploring differences in healthcare delivery in other European countries. PMID:21315498

  14. The Emergence of the Worldship (II): A Development Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, S.

    The worldship concept rests upon three broad areas of technology development: long-endurance life-support of an isolated human community, in-space infrastructure construction, and high-energy space propulsion. This paper presents a possible scenario for the future growth of a worldship capability in terms of a convergence of these three key technology areas. It is argued that progress in propulsion is likely to be faster than in developing permanent habitation in space, and that therefore the first worldships will be launched after a plateau in vehicle speeds has been reached. Such a plateau is likely to be enforced, not by technological limits, but by economic limits to the energy and power that can be invested in a single vehicle or fleet of vehicles.

  15. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  16. Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1995-01-19

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.

  17. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  18. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  19. Generic exposure scenarios: their development, application, and interpretation under REACH.

    PubMed

    Money, Chris; Margary, Alison; Noij, Dook; Hommes, Kees

    2011-06-01

    The European Union Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation (EC 1907/2006) places significant new obligations on the manufacturers or importers (M/Is) of chemicals in Europe. It also places new responsibilities on downstream users (DUs) of these chemicals i.e. those that purchase and use chemical products. In particular, for registered classified substances, the M/I is expected to communicate how any substance can be safely used without risk to man or the environment. This communication is in the form of an exposure scenario (ES), which is included in an Annex to the REACH extended safety data sheet. DUs then have certain obligations relating to adopting the control conditions described in the ES. The REACH Technical Guidance Documents lay down the expectations for the process of risk assessment that M/Is should adopt when developing ESs. But with many thousands of chemicals in daily commerce, it is also necessary to ensure that what is communicated to DUs not only meets the requirements of REACH but is also understandable to these groups, as well as being consistent across different chemical suppliers and supply chains. In cooperation with relevant DU groups, the European solvents industry has developed generic approaches for describing how solvents are commonly used, in order that these can subsequently be used as the basis for REACH registrations and related safety data sheet communications on health risk control. The utility of these approaches (termed 'generic exposure scenarios') is acknowledged under REACH and they are now publicly available for use both by M/Is and DUs. PMID:21551289

  20. The development of mental scenario building and episodic foresight.

    PubMed

    Suddendorf, Thomas; Redshaw, Jonathan

    2013-08-01

    Episodic foresight is the future-directed counterpart of episodic memory. It is a sophisticated, potentially uniquely human capacity, with tremendous adaptive consequences. Here we review what is currently known about its development through early childhood. We tackle this from two distinct perspectives. First, we present the first systematic evaluation of the development of purported components of mental scenario building as highlighted by a theater metaphor: the stage, the playwright, the set, the actors, the director, the executive producer, and the broadcaster. We find that, although there are diverse developmental trajectories, by 4 years of age children have acquired the basic cognitive components required to mentally construct specific future events. Second, we examine recent attempts to test children's episodic foresight more directly and find that results are in line with those examining the development of required components. This is not to say that children younger than four have no inkling of upcoming events or that older children have nothing left to learn about constructing the future. Episodic foresight, and its neurocognitive foundations, continues to develop throughout childhood. PMID:23855564

  1. Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

  2. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  4. Peritoneal dialysis in the developing world: the Mexican scenario.

    PubMed

    Treviño-Becerra, Alejandro; Maimone, Maria Antonieta Schettino

    2002-09-01

    In the developing countries it is not possible to determine the total amount of money spent in the treatment of chronic diseases, and the practice of renal replacement therapies faces many obstacles. In Mexico, the introduction of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis and continuous cycling peritoneal dialysis (CCPD) achieved very good results. Unfortunately, renal disease still affected as much as 95% of chronic renal failure patients and it became a disaster with an annual mortality rate higher than 60%. This was known as the Mexican Model which failed in establishing peritoneal dialysis as the only procedure for treating patients. In order to avoid a similar scenario with the 2 replacement therapies, we created the Official Norm for hemodialysis, and now we are experimenting with an increase from 5% to 20% of hemodialysis patients who are receiving therapy, principally in private units that attend Social Security patients. In addition, the government has established a Council for Transplantation that acts as a regulatory board. In other words, we are in the process of making chronic renal diseases a priority within the National Program. PMID:12197926

  5. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  7. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  8. Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alinier, Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

  9. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  10. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-15

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  11. Cyberbullying Prevention: The Development of Virtual Scenarios for Counselors in Middle Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Vivian H.; Burnham, Joy J.

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop meaningful and engaging virtual cyberbullying scenarios in digital environments that reflect the educational needs of today's adolescents. In order to inform and script these scenarios, a threestage study was implemented with middle schools. This paper describes how data collected in each stage informed the…

  12. Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

  13. Teaching Scenario Development for Concurrent Engineering Practices Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aguiar, Adriana F. S.; de Oliveira, Cristiano B. M.; Rozenfeld, Henrique; Omokawa, Rogerio

    In modern society, a company's competitive advantage is directly related to its capacity for product development. This paper describes the use of a Model Integrated Factory to simulate product development business processes for the education of engineers. (WRM)

  14. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference

  15. Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

    2016-07-01

    The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521.

  16. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  17. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    SciTech Connect

    GALSON,D.A.; SWIFT,PETER N.; ANDERSON,D. RICHARD; BENNETT,D.G.

    1998-09-23

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs.

  18. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  19. Ground Systems Development Environment (GSDE) interface requirements analysis: Operations scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Church, Victor E.; Phillips, John

    1991-01-01

    This report is a preliminary assessment of the functional and data interface requirements to the link between the GSDE GS/SPF (Amdahl) and the Space Station Control Center (SSCC) and Space Station Training Facility (SSTF) Integration, Verification, and Test Environments (IVTE's). These interfaces will be involved in ground software development of both the control center and the simulation and training systems. Our understanding of the configuration management (CM) interface and the expected functional characteristics of the Amdahl-IVTE interface is described. A set of assumptions and questions that need to be considered and resolved in order to complete the interface functional and data requirements definitions are presented. A listing of information items defined to describe software configuration items in the GSDE CM system is included. It also includes listings of standard reports of CM information and of CM-related tools in the GSDE.

  20. Blast Loading Experiments of Developed Surrogate Models for TBI Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, Matthew; Son, Steven

    2009-06-01

    This study aims to characterize the interaction of explosive blast waves through simulated anatomical systems. We have developed physical models and a systematic approach for testing traumatic brain injury (TBI) mechanisms and occurrences. A simplified series of models consisting of spherical PMMA shells followed by SLA prototyped skulls housing synthetic gelatins as brain simulants have been utilized. A series of experiments was conducted with the simple geometries to compare the sensitivity of the system response to mechanical properties of the simulants under high strain-rate explosive blasts. Small explosive charges were directed at the models to produce a realistic blast wave in a scaled laboratory setting. Blast profiles were measured and analyzed to compare system response severity. High-speed shadowgraph imaging captured blast wave interaction with the head model while particle tracking captured internal response for displacement and strain correlation. The results suggest amplification of shock waves inside the head due to impedance mismatches. Results from the strain correlations added to the theory of internal shearing between tissues.

  1. The question of the realizability of the Landau scenario for the development of turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.

    2009-02-01

    We suggest a phenomenological model for the development of turbulence in the form of the nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation perturbed by nonconservative disturbances. Combining analytic and numerical methods, we establish that the transition to turbulence in this equation can follow both the Landau and the Landau-Sell scenarios. As is known, the first scenario is related to a cascade of bifurcations of stable invariant tori of increasing dimensions. The other scenario is related to a chaotic attractor whose Lyapunov dimension increases indefinitely under variation of a certain control parameter.

  2. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. ); Phifer, M.A. . Dept. of Civil Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  3. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  4. Development and validation of videotaped scenarios: a method for targeting specific participant groups.

    PubMed

    Noel, Nora E; Maisto, Stephen A; Johnson, James D; Jackson, Lee A; Goings, Christopher D; Hagman, Brett T

    2008-04-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  5. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  6. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  7. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  8. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Steam Intrusion from Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  9. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-03-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

  10. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  11. Long-term prospects for developments in space: A scenario approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, W. M.; Kahn, H. D.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term plans for future NASA programs are reported, and some of the following topics are discussed in detail: (1) systematic formulation of space scenarios; (2) the basic international context; (3) potential 21st century space developments; (4) space vehicle developments; and (5) future exploration.

  12. Scenario-development to Analyze Future Fresh Water Availability in the Yellow River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Congli; van de Giesen, Nick

    2010-05-01

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the youngest alluvial plains in the world. Nowadays, fresh water availability is under stress due to several reasons. First, there is the rapidly increasing upstream water demand along the Yellow River. Second, climate change causes shifts in precipitation, temperature and evaporation. Third, land use/ land cover change has a large impact on the surface runoff and groundwater recharge in the district. Finally, other anthropogenic interventions such as irrigation, inter-basin water transfer, and artificial reservoirs affect fresh water availability directly. Scenario-development is needed to examine consequences of possible developments and to improve management through better anticipation. Therefore, possible changes in all four sets of stressors (water demand, climate change, land use, anthropogenic interventions) are systematically catalogued. To assess future fresh water availability, we present and compare two methods to link the stressors. The first way is the "storyline method", as used by, for instance, the IPCC. This method is concerned with consistency within a given scenario. Typically, this method results in a small set of equally likely scenarios, running from best to worst. The second method is complete Bayesian integration. In this method, all different development pathways are taken into account. In a simple example, we may have two stressors with only high or law values, say, high or low upstream water demand and high and low irrigation development. In this case we would have four possible pathways leading to four different scenarios. Weights, or priors, are given to each branch of each path. Covariances between stressors will be accounted for as well. The likelihoods of each scenario are then calculated by simple integrating the likelihood along each pathway. The results of both methods are compared. Key words: Fresh water availability; Scenario development; Storyline Method; Bayesian Integration

  13. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  14. Mexico's Sustainable Development: ¿Is it Possible, an Alternative Scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uribe, Medardo Tapia

    2009-07-01

    Mexico's track of development needs to be different in order to aspire to sustainable development. This chapter examines Mexico's current socioeconomic situation with respect to the rest of Latin American countries in the last few years and the forecast for 2009. Then it provides empirical data of the deterioration of Mexican natural resources in order to explore an alternative scenario as presented in the Mexican debate of Mexico's sustainable development.

  15. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  16. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  17. Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Luce, T C

    2004-10-18

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.

  18. Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Luce, T C

    2004-12-01

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.

  19. Impact of alternative small-wind systems standards-development scenarios. Volume II. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Silberglitt, R.; Boone, K.; Greer, B.; Hamester, H.L.; Robertson, K.; Steigelmann, W. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The potential impacts of a number of alternative scenarios for the development of standards for small wind energy conversion systems (SWECS) were analyzed. Because of the embryonic state of the SWECS industry, standards can play a particularly important role in affecting the course of SWECS commercialization. Past experience indicates that in order to be effective, such standards should be developed as the result of a consensus process, assimilating input from all concerned parties. The current status of efforts to develop voluntary consensus standards for SWECS is examined and the opinions of various affected groups and individuals with regard to SWECS standards are assessed. A methodology is presented for determining the impacts of six different types of SWECS standards written by four separate groups, or actors. As the result of this impact assessment, and the assigning of weights to the impacts of each standard, an optimum scenario is presented. The optimum scenario represents an effort to maximize the contribution of each actor in order to produce broad-based consensus standards. Finally, an implementation plan is suggested for the optimum scenario.

  20. Impact of alternative small wind systems standards development scenarios. Volume I. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Silberglitt, R.; Boone, K.; Greer, B.; Hamester, H.L.; Robertson, K.; Steigelmann, W. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The potential impacts of a number of alternative scenarios for the development of standards for small wind energy conversion systems (SWECS) are analyzed. Because of the embryonic state of the SWECS industry, standards can play a particularly important role in affecting the course of SWECS commercialization. Past experience indicates that in order to be effective, such standards should be developed as the result of a consensus process, assimilating input from all concerned parties. This document examines the current status of efforts to develop voluntary consensus standards for SWECS and assesses the opinions of various affected groups and individuals with regard to SWECS standards. It presents a methodology for determining the impacts of six different types of SWECS standards written by four separate groups, or actors. As the result of this impact assessment, and the assigning of weights to the impacts of each standard, an optimum scenario is presented. The optimum scenario represents an effort to maximize the contribution of each actor in order to produce broad-based consensus standards. Finally, an implementation plan is suggested for the optimum scenario.

  1. Development of Depletion Code Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Propagation in Scenario Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krivtchik, Guillaume; Coquelet-Pascal, Christine; Blaise, Patrick; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Freynet, David

    2014-06-01

    The result of transition scenario studies, which enable the comparison of different options of the reactor fleet evolution and management of the future fuel cycle materials, allow to perform technical and economic feasibility studies. The COSI code is developed by CEA and used to perform scenario calculations. It allows to model any fuel type, reactor fleet, fuel facility, and permits the tracking of U, Pu, minor actinides and fission products nuclides on a large time scale. COSI is coupled with the CESAR code which performs the depletion calculations based on one-group cross-section libraries and nuclear data. Different types of uncertainties have an impact on scenario studies: nuclear data and scenario assumptions. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their impact on the major scenario results. The methodology adopted to propagate these uncertainties throughout the scenario calculations is a stochastic approach. Considering the amount of inputs to be sampled in order to perform a stochastic calculation of the propagated uncertainty, it appears necessary to reduce the calculation time. Given that evolution calculations represent approximately 95% of the total scenario simulation time, an optimization can be done, with the development and implementation of a surrogate models library of CESAR in COSI. The input parameters of CESAR are sampled with URANIE, the CEA uncertainty platform, and for every sample, the isotopic composition after evolution evaluated with CESAR is stored. Then statistical analysis of the input and output tables allow to model the behavior of CESAR on each CESAR library, i.e. building a surrogate model. Several quality tests are performed on each surrogate model to insure the prediction power is satisfying. Afterward, a new routine implemented in COSI reads these surrogate models and using them in replacement of CESAR calculations. A preliminary study of the calculation time gain shows that the use of surrogate models allows stochastic

  2. Typical pedestrian accident scenarios for the development of autonomous emergency braking test protocols.

    PubMed

    Lenard, James; Badea-Romero, Alexandro; Danton, Russell

    2014-12-01

    An increasing proportion of new vehicles are being fitted with autonomous emergency braking systems. It is difficult for consumers to judge the effectiveness of these safety systems for individual models unless their performance is evaluated through track testing under controlled conditions. This paper aimed to contribute to the development of relevant test conditions by describing typical circumstances of pedestrian accidents. Cluster analysis was applied to two large British databases and both highlighted an urban scenario in daylight and fine weather where a small pedestrian walks across the road, especially from the near kerb, in clear view of a driver who is travelling straight ahead. For each dataset a main test configuration was defined to represent the conditions of the most common accident scenario along with test variations to reflect the characteristics of less common accident scenarios. Some of the variations pertaining to less common accident circumstances or to a minority of casualties in these scenarios were proposed as optional or supplementary test elements for an outstanding performance rating. Many considerations are incorporated into the final design and implementation of an actual testing regime, such as cost and the state of development of technology; only the representation of accident data lay within the scope of this paper. It would be desirable to ascertain the wider representativeness of the results by analysing accident data from other countries in a similar manner. PMID:25180785

  3. Scenario planning for community development in Vietnam: a new tool for integrated health approaches?

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Vi; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Wiese, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Background Like many countries in Southeast Asia, Vietnam's rapid population and economic growth has met challenges in infrastructure development, especially sanitation in rural areas. Objective As an entry point, we developed scenario planning as an action–research tool in a peri-urban community to identify first steps towards improving their complex sanitation problem and to, systemically, address emerging/re-emerging infectious diseases, as these are commonly linked to unsafe water and inadequate sanitation conditions. As an integrated approach, the process of constructing scenarios allowed us to work across sectors and stakeholders to incorporate this knowledge into a common vision. Design We conducted focus group discussions to identify and rank driving forces, orally constructed scenarios for the most uncertain drivers, discussed scenario implications and options, and examined the overall process for usefulness and sustainability. During a one-month scoping phase and in between focus group meetings, we carried out household visits which helped us understand the context of data and gather feedback from participants outside of the formal data collection process. Recorded results from these activities were used to develop subsequent tools. Results and Conclusions The research process gave us insights into how to adapt the scenario planning tool to identify alternative options. This involved choosing boundary partners, negotiating priorities, drawing out participant learning through self-assessment of our process (a prerequisite for changing mental models and thus achieving outcomes), and understanding how conveyed messages may reinforce the status quo. These insights showed the importance of examining research results beyond outputs and outcomes, namely through process. PMID:25138530

  4. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. PMID:25108719

  5. Developing leadership skills in critical care nurses: a case scenario--part two.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Asha; Williams, Susan; MacConnell, Grace

    2005-01-01

    During a recent CACCN board meeting, directors were challenged with developing an approach to a difficult case scenario. In a situation in which a group of nurses have angered some of the other nurses who work in the same unit, the directors were asked to identify core problems and suggest possible solutions and potential barriers to this problem. The perception that patient care is hampered, poor morale and job satisfaction as well as the lack of leadership and poor communication were identified as the core problems in the scenario that was presented. A number of possible solutions and the associated strengths and weaknesses, as well as the barriers to implementing the solutions were identified. In summary, critical care nurses must continue to advocate and lead the way toward strong leadership, modeling of appropriate behaviour and effective communication--all of which contribute to stronger team development and, ultimately, result in better, safer patient care. PMID:16447530

  6. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, E.J.

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  7. Integrated Modeling & Development of Emission Scenarios for Methane and Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Jain, Atul K.

    2005-09-30

    This report outlines main accomplishments on the development of Emission inventories and Scenarios for Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases (CO, VOCs, NOx) and methane supported by Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy. This research produced 3 journal articles, 1 book chapter, and 4 research articles/abstracts in conference proceedings. In addition, this grant supported two PhD students and one undergraduate student at UIUC.

  8. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    PubMed

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development. PMID:23408100

  9. Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the

  10. 78 FR 72534 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-03

    ... annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\1\\ Public Law 111-203, 124 Stat. 1376 (2010). \\2\\ 77 FR... development and distribution of future stress test scenarios. \\4\\ 77 FR 69553 (Nov. 20, 2012). B. Summary of... will apply to develop and distribute those scenarios for covered banks. \\1\\ 77 FR 62417 (Oct. 15,...

  11. Development of useful climate scenarios at regional scales using GCM outputs

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, P.C.

    1997-12-31

    If climate changes are expected, their regional impacts are of special interest. Up to now (and in the near future) global climate models have been unable to deliver applicable results to describe the climate situation within a selected region (IPCC, 1995). That is why the description of the climate development in such an area must be realised by another possibility of creating meteorological data. Of importance besides is that the consistency in space and time and also between all meteorological parameters is not infracted. The used method proceeds on the assumption that the large scale changes of several meteorological parameters for a defined region calculated by a GCM can be regarded as correct as regards their tendencies. Based on such an assumption, long-term observed time series are prepared by statistical methods in such a way that they reflect the GCM-calculated changes by a scenario. The advantage of this method lies in the reduction of the defects of the GCM to a minimum. Simultaneously the consistency between the meteorological parameters can be ensured. A disadvantage is the missing physical connection between the GCM results and the given scenario. This method was applied successfully to develop several climate scenarios for a limited area (state Brandenburg) in Germany.

  12. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF HYBRID OPERATION SCENARIOS FOR BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect

    LUCE,TC; WADE,MR; FERRON,JR; HYATT,AW; POLITZER,PA; SIPS,ACC

    2003-08-01

    OAK-B135 The basic parameters of proposed burning plasma experiments such as ITER and FIRE have been chosen based on analysis of multi-machine databases of confinement, stability, and divertor operation. given these specifications, it is of interest to run discharges in present-day machines such as DIII-D to verify the design basis and evaluate the margin available to achieve the mission goals. it is especially important to operate discharges which are stationary with respect to the current relaxation time scale ({tau}{sub R}) since it is well-known that higher performance can be achieved transiently. Attention has been focused on validating the baseline scenario for diverted machines--ELMing H-mode discharges with q{sub 95} = 3 with sawteeth. However, there is also interest in the ITER program to assess the feasibility of operating the tokamak in a mode to maximize the neutron fluence for the purpose of testing the design of various components critical to the nuclear fuel cycle and energy conversion systems in a fusion power plant. It was originally envisioned that these discharges would be intermediate between an inductive burn (baseline) scenario and a fully noninductive (steady state) scenario; therefore, this type of discharge has become known as a hybrid scenario. In the course of investigating these hybrid scenarios in DIII-D, two key results have been obtained. First, stationary discharges with q{sub 95} > 4 have been obtained which project to Q{sub fus} {approx} 10 in ITER. The projected duration of these discharges in ITER when using the full inductive flux capability is > 4000 s. (The significant engineering issues of site heat capacity, activation, and tritium consumption are beyond the scope of this work). Second, utilizing the same plasma initiation techniques as developed for the hybrid scenario, discharges at q{sub 95} = 3.2 project to near ignition in ITER, even with reduced parameters. This indicates the ITER design has significant performance

  13. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  14. Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  15. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

    PubMed Central

    Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  16. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    PubMed

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  17. The Value of Scenario Development in Environmental and Socio-economic Policy Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M. I.; Gupta, H. V.

    2007-12-01

    Increasing scarcity, growing demand, and a burdened water supply have generated concerns about the sustainability of the southwest's regional water infrastructure. This necessitates the adoption of improved water management practices and policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Scenarios introduce an innovative aspect to strategic long-term planning that is currently absent from current decision- making and resource management activities. For the purpose of assessing future water resources management and sustainability needs within the region, the formal approach to scenario development adopted by scientists and researchers at the University of Arizona's SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) center is adopted. Through workshops and meetings with regional and state stakeholders, several dominant themes of interest for water resources management emerged. A historical analysis of several key variables associated with these major themes provided insight on the future uncertainty in projections and assumptions adopted in early examples of future planning in the southwest. Analysis of these key variables indicates that historical assumptions and projections in the dimensions of the environment, climate, and socio-economics lacked the dynamic planning foresight that tools such as scenarios can provide.

  18. Developing a measure of interpretation bias for depressed mood: An ambiguous scenarios test

    PubMed Central

    Berna, Chantal; Lang, Tamara J.; Goodwin, Guy M.; Holmes, Emily A.

    2011-01-01

    The tendency to interpret ambiguous everyday situations in a relatively negative manner (negative interpretation bias) is central to cognitive models of depression. Limited tools are available to measure this bias, either experimentally or in the clinic. This study aimed to develop a pragmatic interpretation bias measure using an ambiguous scenarios test relevant to depressed mood (the AST-D).1 In Study 1, after a pilot phase (N = 53), the AST-D was presented via a web-based survey (N = 208). Participants imagined and rated each AST-D ambiguous scenario. As predicted, higher dysphoric mood was associated with lower pleasantness ratings (more negative bias), independent of mental imagery measures. In Study 2, self-report ratings were compared with objective ratings of participants’ imagined outcomes of the ambiguous scenarios (N = 41). Data were collected in the experimental context of a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging scanner. Consistent with subjective bias scores, independent judges rated more sentences as negatively valenced for the high versus low dysphoric group. Overall, results suggest the potential utility of the AST-D in assessing interpretation bias associated with depressed mood. PMID:21822348

  19. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  20. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  1. Developing Authentic Online Problem-Based Learning Case Scenarios for Teachers of Students with Visual Impairments in the United Kingdom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLinden, Mike; McCall, Steve; Hinton, Danielle; Weston, Annette

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the development of online problem-based learning case scenarios for use in a distance education program for teachers of students with visual impairments in the United Kingdom. Following participation in two case scenarios, a cohort of teachers provided feedback. This feedback was analyzed in relation to the relevant…

  2. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do

  3. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  4. Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

  5. Learning to deal with crisis in the home: Part 1--developing community simulation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Caroline E; Dickson, Caroline; Lawson, Bill; Kelly, Helena; McMillan, Ailsa

    2015-11-01

    Contemporary health care is increasingly being located in the community. From the evident changes in demographics and general health, it can be derived that the people whom student nurses care for are likely to have multiple comorbidities and be vulnerable to clinical deterioration. These nurses are required to develop a range of transferrable skills to meet the demands of the population. The challenge for educators of preregistration student nurses is to develop educational strategies to prepare them with the skills, knowledge, and confidence necessary to recognise and manage deterioration appropriately in any context. This article is the first of two papers discussing the stimulus, design, and delivery of an educational innovation that focuses on the recognition and management of the deteriorating patient. The article explores current literature about community-focused simulation highlighting the potential learning opportunities resulting from contextualising simulation scenarios specific to the community setting. PMID:26551382

  6. Overview of ASDEX Upgrade results—development of integrated operating scenarios for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günter, S.; Angioni, C.; Apostoliceanu, M.; Atanasiu, C.; Balden, M.; Becker, G.; Becker, W.; Behler, K.; Behringer, K.; Bergmann, A.; Bilato, R.; Bizyukov, I.; Bobkov, V.; Bolzonella, T.; Borba, D.; Borrass, K.; Brambilla, M.; Braun, F.; Buhler, A.; Carlson, A.; Chankin, A.; Chen, J.; Chen, Y.; Cirant, S.; Conway, G.; Coster, D.; Dannert, T.; Dimova, K.; Drube, R.; Dux, R.; Eich, T.; Engelhardt, K.; Fahrbach, H.-U.; Fantz, U.; Fattorini, L.; Foley, M.; Franzen, P.; Fuchs, J. C.; Gafert, J.; Gal, K.; Gantenbein, G.; García Muñoz, M.; Gehre, O.; Geier, A.; Giannone, L.; Gruber, O.; Haas, G.; Hartmann, D.; Heger, B.; Heinemann, B.; Herrmann, A.; Hobirk, J.; Hohenöcker, H.; Horton, L.; Huart, M.; Igochine, V.; Jacchia, A.; Jakobi, M.; Jenko, F.; Kallenbach, A.; Kálvin, S.; Kardaun, O.; Kaufmann, M.; Keller, A.; Kendl, A.; Kick, M.; Kim, J.-W.; Kirov, K.; Klose, S.; Kochergov, R.; Kocsis, G.; Kollotzek, H.; Konz, C.; Kraus, W.; Krieger, K.; Kurki-Suonio, T.; Kurzan, B.; Lackner, K.; Lang, P. T.; Lauber, P.; Laux, M.; Leuterer, F.; Likonen, J.; Lohs, A.; Lorenz, A.; Lorenzini, R.; Lyssoivan, A.; Maggi, C.; Maier, H.; Mank, K.; Manini, A.; Manso, M.-E.; Mantica, P.; Maraschek, M.; Martin, P.; Mast, K. F.; Mayer, M.; McCarthy, P.; Meyer, H.; Meisel, D.; Meister, H.; Menmuir, S.; Meo, F.; Merkel, P.; Merkel, R.; Merkl, D.; Mertens, V.; Monaco, F.; Mück, A.; Müller, H. W.; Münich, M.; Murmann, H.; Na, Y.-S.; Narayanan, R.; Neu, G.; Neu, R.; Neuhauser, J.; Nishijima, D.; Nishimura, Y.; Noterdaeme, J.-M.; Nunes, I.; Pacco-Düchs, M.; Pautasso, G.; Peeters, A. G.; Pereverzev, G.; Pinches, S.; Poli, E.; Posthumus-Wolfrum, E.; Pütterich, T.; Pugno, R.; Quigley, E.; Radivojevic, I.; Raupp, G.; Reich, M.; Riedl, R.; Ribeiro, T.; Rohde, V.; Roth, J.; Ryter, F.; Saarelma, S.; Sandmann, W.; Santos, J.; Schall, G.; Schilling, H.-B.; Schirmer, J.; Schneider, W.; Schramm, G.; Schweinzer, J.; Schweizer, S.; Scott, B.; Seidel, U.; Serra, F.; Sihler, C.; Silva, A.; Sips, A.; Speth, E.; Stäbler, A.; Steuer, K.-H.; Stober, J.; Streibl, B.; Strintzi, D.; Strumberger, E.; Suttrop, W.; Tardini, G.; Tichmann, C.; Treutterer, W.; Troppmann, M.; Tsalas, M.; Urano, H.; Varela, P.; Wagner, D.; Wesner, F.; Würsching, E.; Ye, M. Y.; Yoon, S.-W.; Yu, Q.; Zaniol, B.; Zasche, D.; Zehetbauer, T.; Zehrfeld, H.-P.; Zilker, M.; Zohm, H.

    2005-10-01

    Significant progress has been made on ASDEX Upgrade during the last two years in the basic understanding of transport, in the extension of the improved H-mode in parameter space and towards an integrated operating scenario and in the development of control methods for major performance limiting instabilities. The important features were the understanding of particle transport and the control of impurity accumulation based on it, the satisfactory operation with predominantly tungsten-clad walls, the improved H-mode operation over density ranges and for temperature ratios covering (non-simultaneously) the ITER requirements on ν*, n/nGW and Te/Ti, the ELM frequency control by pellet injection and the optimization of NTM suppression by DC-ECCD through variation of the launching angle. From these experiments an integrated scenario has emerged which extrapolates to a 50% improvement in n T τ or a 30% reduction of the required current when compared with the ITER base-line assumptions, with moderately peaked electron and controllable high-Z density profiles.

  7. Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; McCoy, Tim D.; Guan, Qingfeng

    2015-01-01

    Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

  8. Long Pulse High Performance Plasma Scenario Development for the National Spherical Torus Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Kessel, C.E.; Bell, R.E.; Bell, M.G.; Gates, D.A.; Harvey, R.W.

    2006-01-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment [Ono et al., Nucl. Fusion, 44, 452 (2004)] is targeting long pulse high performance, noninductive sustained operations at low aspect ratio, and the demonstration of nonsolenoidal startup and current rampup. The modeling of these plasmas provides a framework for experimental planning and identifies the tools to access these regimes. Simulations based on neutral beam injection (NBI)-heated plasmas are made to understand the impact of various modifications and identify the requirements for (1) high elongation and triangularity, (2) density control to optimize the current drive, (3) plasma rotation and/or feedback stabilization to operate above the no-wall limit, and (4) electron Bernstein waves (EBW) for off-axis heating/current drive (H/CD). Integrated scenarios are constructed to provide the transport evolution and H/CD source modeling, supported by rf and stability analyses. Important factors include the energy confinement, Zeff, early heating/H mode, broadening of the NBI-driven current profile, and maintaining q(0) and qmin>1.0. Simulations show that noninductive sustained plasmas can be reached at IP=800 kA, BT=0.5 T, 2.5, N5, 15%, fNI=92%, and q(0)>1.0 with NBI H/CD, density control, and similar global energy confinement to experiments. The noninductive sustained high plasmas can be reached at IP=1.0 MA, BT=0.35 T, 2.5, N9, 43%, fNI=100%, and q(0)>1.5 with NBI H/CD and 3.0 MW of EBW H/CD, density control, and 25% higher global energy confinement than experiments. A scenario for nonsolenoidal plasma current rampup is developed using high harmonic fast wave H/CD in the early low IP and low Te phase, followed by NBI H/CD to continue the current ramp, reaching a maximum of 480 kA after 3.4 s.

  9. The role of pharmacists in developing countries: the current scenario in Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Azhar, Saira; Hassali, Mohamed Azmi; Ibrahim, Mohamed Izham Mohamed; Ahmad, Maqsood; Masood, Imran; Shafie, Asrul Akmal

    2009-01-01

    During the past few years, the pharmacy profession has expanded significantly in terms of professional services delivery and now has been recognized as an important profession in the multidisciplinary provision of health care. In contrast to the situation in developed countries, pharmacists in developing countries are still underutilized and their role as health care professionals is not deemed important by either the community or other health care providers. The aim of this paper is to highlight the role of pharmacists in developing countries, particularly in Pakistan. The paper draws on the literature related to the socioeconomic and health status of Pakistan's population, along with background on the pharmacy profession in the country in the context of the current directions of health care. The paper highlights the current scenario and portrays the pharmacy profession in Pakistan. It concludes that although the pharmacy profession in Pakistan is continuously evolving, the health care system of Pakistan has yet to recognize the pharmacist's role. This lack of recognition is due to the limited interaction of pharmacists with the public. Pharmacists in Pakistan are concerned about their present professional role in the health care system. The main problem they are facing is the shortage of pharmacists in pharmacies. Moreover, their services are focused towards management more than towards customers. For these reasons, the pharmacist's role as a health care professional is not familiar to the public. PMID:19594916

  10. Scenarios of animal waste production and fertilizer use and associated ammonia emission for the developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwman, A. F.; Van Der Hoek, K. W.

    Livestock production and the use of synthetic fertilizer are responsible for about half of the global emission of NH 3. Depending on the animal category between 10 and 36% of the N in animal excreta is lost as NH 3. The current annual NH 3 emission in developing countries of 15 million ton N accounts for 2/3 of the global emission from animal excreta. In addition, 7.2 million tons NH 3N of synthetic N fertilizers are lost as NH 3 in developing countries. This is 80% of the global NH 3 emission from synthetic fertilizer's use. Along with human population increase and economic growth, livestock production in developing countries may even increase by a factor of 3 between now and 2025. The net result of rapid increase of livestock production combined with higher efficiency is an increase in NH 3 emissions of only 60% from 15 to 24 million tons NH 3N between 1990 and 2025 in developing countries. Livestock production is an important consumer of feedstuffs, mainly cereals, thereby inducing additional demand for synthetic fertilizers. Despite the projected major increase of synthetic fertilizer use from 42 to 106 million ton N between 1990 and 2025, the NH 3 loss in developing countries may decrease if a shift towards other fertilizer types, that are less vulnerable to NH 3 volatilization, is realized. According to the scenario, the total emission of NH 3 associated with food production in developing countries will increase from 22 to 30 million ton N yr -1 between 1990 and 2025. Although the NH 3 emission increases more slowly than food production, in particular, animal production may show geographic concentration in certain regions, which may lead to high local emission densities and associated environmental problems.

  11. Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Catherine C.; Tanenbaum, Jason B.; Lee, Yi-Ching; Fisher, Donald L.; Mayhew, Daniel R.; Winston, Flaura K.

    2013-01-01

    Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no consensus set of scenarios and skills to assess whether novice drivers are likely to crash or to assess the effects of novice driver training programs on the likelihood of a crash. The authors propose that a much narrower, common set of scenarios can be used to focus on the high-risk crashes of young drivers. Until recently, it was not possible to identify the detailed set of scenarios that were specific to high-risk crashes. However, an integration of police crash reports from previous research, a number of critical simulator studies, and a nationally representative database of serious teen crashes (the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey) now make identification of these scenarios possible. In this paper, the authors propose this novel approach and discuss how to create a common set of simulated scenarios and skills to assess novice driver performance and the effects of training and interventions as they relate to high-risk crashes. PMID:23543947

  12. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  13. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  14. Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musulin, Mike, II

    The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

  15. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision

  16. Off-axis Neutral Beam Current Drive for Advanced Scenario Development in DIII-D

    SciTech Connect

    Murakami, M; Park, J; Petty, C; Luce, T; Heidbrink, W; Osborne, T; Wade, M; Austin, M; Brooks, N; Budny, R; Challis, C; DeBoo, J; deGrassie, J; Ferron, J; Gohil, P; Hobirk, J; Holcomb, C; Hollmann, E; Hong, R; Hyatt, A; Lohr, J; Lanctot, M; Makowski, M; McCune, D; Politzer, P; Prater, R; John, H S; Suzuki, T; West, W; Unterberg, E; Van Zeeland, M; Yu, J

    2008-10-13

    Modification of the two existing DIII-D neutral beam lines is proposed to allow vertical steering to provide off-axis neutral beam current drive (NBCD) as far off-axis as half the plasma radius. New calculations indicate very good current drive with good localization off-axis as long as the toroidal magnetic field, B{sub T}, and the plasma current, I{sub p}, are in the same direction (for a beam steered downward). The effects of helicity can be large: e.g., ITER off-axis NBCD can be increased by more than 20% if the B{sub T} direction is reversed. This prediction has been tested by an off-axis NBCD experiment using reduced size plasmas that are vertically shifted with the existing NBI on DIII-D. The existence of off-axis NBCD is evident in sawtooth and internal inductance behavior. By shifting the plasma upward or downward, or by changing the sign of the toroidal field, measured off-axis NBCD profiles, determined from MSE data, are consistent with predicted differences (40%-45%) arising from the NBI orientation with respect to the magnetic field lines. Modification of the DIII-D NB system will strongly support scenario development for ITER and future tokamaks as well as providing flexible scientific tools for understanding transport, energetic particles and heating and current drive.

  17. Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

  18. Exploration of steady-state scenarios for the Fusion Development Facility (FDF)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, V. S.; Garofalo, A. M.; Stambaugh, R. D.; Choi, M.; Kinsey, J. E.; Lao, L. L.; Snyder, P. B.; St. John, H. E.; Turnbull, A. D.

    2011-10-01

    A Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) has to operate at 105 times longer duration than that of present tokamak discharges. The scalability of plasma sustainment to such a long time is an issue that needs to be resolved by scientific understanding. We carry out steady-state (SS) scenario development of the FDF (a candidate for FNSF-AT) using an iterative process toward a self-consistent solution via alternating temperature profiles and current profile evolution. The temperature profile evolves according to a physics-based transport model GLF23. SS requires large off-axis current drive (CD). To achieve this with no NBI is highly challenging. It however simplifies tritium containment, increases area for tritium breeding, and avoids costly negative-ion NBI technology. We find that with ECH/ECCD only, too much power is required. A SS baseline equilibrium is found by adding LHCD: Qfus ~ 4 , H98 y 2 ~ 1 . 2 , fBS ~ 70 %, Pfus ~ 260 MW, PEC = 35 MW, PLH = 21 MW. The GATO ideal MHD code finds the equilibrium stable to n = 1 internal kink at κ = 2 . 3 . Work supported by General Atomics internal funds.

  19. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  20. The Scenario-Based Engineering Process (SEP): a user-centered approach for the development of health care systems.

    PubMed

    Harbison, K; Kelly, J; Burnell, L; Silva, J

    1995-01-01

    The Scenario-based Engineering Process (SEP) is a user-focused methodology for large and complex system design. This process supports new application development from requirements analysis with domain models to component selection, design and modification, implementation, integration, and archival placement. It is built upon object-oriented methodologies, domain modeling strategies, and scenario-based techniques to provide an analysis process for mapping application requirements to available components. We are using SEP in the health care applications that we are developing. The process has already achieved success in the manufacturing and military domains and is being adopted by many organizations. SEP should prove viable in any domain containing scenarios that can be decomposed into tasks. PMID:8591321

  1. The implications of renewable energy research and development: Policy scenario analysis with experience and learning effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobos, Peter Holmes

    This dissertation analyzes the current and potential future costs of renewable energy technology from an institutional perspective. The central hypothesis is that reliable technology cost forecasting can be achieved through standard and modified experience curves implemented in a dynamic simulation model. Additionally, drawing upon region-specific institutional lessons highlights the role of market, social, and political institutions throughout an economy. Socio-political influences and government policy pathways drive resource allocation decisions that may be predominately influenced by factors other than those considered in a traditional market-driven, mechanistic approach. Learning in economic systems as a research topic is an attractive complement to the notion of institutional pathways. The economic implications of learning by doing, as first outlined by Arrow (1962), highlight decreasing production costs as individuals, or more generally the firm, become more familiar with a production process. The standard approach in the literature has been to employ a common experience curve where cumulative production is the only independent variable affecting costs. This dissertation develops a two factor experience curve, adding research, development and demonstration (RD&D) expenditures as a second variable. To illustrate the concept in the context of energy planning, two factor experience curves are developed for wind energy technology and solar photovoltaic (PV) modules under different assumptions on learning rates for cumulative capacity and the knowledge stock (a function of past RD&D efforts). Additionally, a one factor experience curve and cost trajectory scenarios are developed for concentrated solar power and geothermal energy technology, respectively. Cost forecasts are then developed for all four of these technologies in a dynamic simulation model. Combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing with the fields of organizational learning and

  2. Use of multitemporal InSAR data to develop geohazard scenarios for Bandung, Western Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvi, Stefano; Tolomei, Cristiano; Duro, Javier; Pezzo, Giuseppe; Koudogbo, Fifamè

    2015-04-01

    The Greater Bandung metropolitan area is the second largest urban area in Indonesia, with a population of 8.6 million. It is subject to a variety of geohazards: volcanic hazards from seven active volcanoes within a radius of 50 km; high flood hazards, seismic hazard due to crustal active faults, the best known being the 30-km long Lembang fault, 10 km North of the city centre; subsidence hazards due to strong aquifer depletion; landslide hazard in the surrounding high country. In the framework of the FP7 RASOR project, multitemporal satellite SAR data have been processed over Bandung, Western Java. We used the SBAS InSAR technique (Berardino et al., 2002) to process two ALOS-1 datasets, to investigate the various sources of surface deformation acting in the area in the period 2008-2011. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) has also been applied to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy. The PSI processing technique considers a system of points that reflect the radar signal from the satellite continuously through the time. It makes use of differential interferometric phase measurements to generate long term terrain deformation and digital surface model maps. The GlobalSARTM algorithms developed by Altamira Information are applied to COSMO-SkyMed data acquired to measure ground motion over the area of interest. Strong ground displacements (up to 7 cm/yr) due to groundwater abstraction have been measured in the Bandung basin. The identification of long wavelength signals from tectonic sources is difficult due to the limited InSAR coherence outside of the urban environment. Limited deformation is observed also in the Tangkuban Perahu volcano to the north. The spatial and temporal distribution of the ground motion is important supporting information for the generation of long term subsidence and flood hazard scenarios.

  3. Pulling Together: Keeping Track of Pedagogy, Design and Evaluation Through the Development of Scenarios--A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Josie; Evans, Diane

    2005-01-01

    This case study describes the multipurpose use of scenarios in a large multinational research project (MOBIlearn) whose aims are to design and develop a pedagogically sound mobile learning environment. Maintaining effective communication and design focus in large consortia is a well-known problem (see Carroll, 2000), and we describe the role of…

  4. Development and validation of a model for tritium accumulation by a freshwater bivalve using the IAEA EMRAS scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Miyamoto, K.; Inoue, Y.; Takeda, H.; Yanagisawa, K.; Fuma, S.; Ishii, N.; Kuroda, N.; Yankovich, T.; Kim, S. B.; Davis, P.

    2008-07-15

    A six-compartment metabolic model for tritium accumulation by bivalves was developed and validated using two observed data sets supplied in an international IAEA program for validation of environmental models, EMRAS (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety, 2003-2007). The data observed were presented in scenarios for model prediction of temporal change of HTO and OBT concentrations in Barnes mussels (Elliptio complanata). In the Uptake Scenario, mussels were transplanted from a site with background tritium concentrations into a lake, which has historically received tritium inputs over time from up-gradient waste management areas. Another data set was presented in the Depuration Scenario for model prediction of the temporal decrease in HTO and OBT concentrations in the mussels following transplantation from the lake into another lake with significantly lower tritium levels. The model simulation was able to reproduce the observation that the amount of hydrogen taken from sediment was very small compared with that taken from lake water. (authors)

  5. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios: A Method for Targeting Specific Participant Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A., Jr.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression…

  6. MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1992-01-01

    This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  7. MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  8. Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

    2016-02-01

    Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

  9. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones account for over 60% of the loss of life, and over 90% of total impacts, from natural disasters. Both observed trends and global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme events is increasing, and will continue to increase as a result of climate change. Among planners and policy-makers at both national and international levels there is thus concern that this rise in extreme events will lead to greater losses in the future. Since low levels of development are associated with greater numbers of people killed and needing emergency assistance from natural disasters, the concern is most pronounced for least developed countries. If, however, these countries make substantial improvements in their levels of human development, as leading forecasters suggest may be the case over the coming decades, then their vulnerability to extreme events may fall. In this study, we examine the potential combined effects of increased extreme event frequency and improved levels of human development, to generate scenarios of risk levels into the second half of the century. It is the African continent for which these results may be the most relevant, since it is widely viewed as most vulnerable to increased risks from climate change; we focus on the particular country of Mozambique, which has experienced high losses from droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones in recent decades, and stands out as being among the most vulnerable in Africa. To assess the change in risk levels from the present until 2060, we pull together three pieces of analysis. The first is a statistical analysis of the losses from 1990-2007 from climate-related disasters, using national level data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations. From this analysis, we establish statistical relationships between several drivers of vulnerability—including country size

  10. Development of Scientific Simulation 3D Full Wave ICRF Code for Stellarators and Heating/CD Scenarios Development

    SciTech Connect

    Vdovin V.L.

    2005-08-15

    In this report we describe theory and 3D full wave code description for the wave excitation, propagation and absorption in 3-dimensional (3D) stellarator equilibrium high beta plasma in ion cyclotron frequency range (ICRF). This theory forms a basis for a 3D code creation, urgently needed for the ICRF heating scenarios development for the operated LHD, constructed W7-X, NCSX and projected CSX3 stellarators, as well for re evaluation of ICRF scenarios in operated tokamaks and in the ITER . The theory solves the 3D Maxwell-Vlasov antenna-plasma-conducting shell boundary value problem in the non-orthogonal flux coordinates ({Psi}, {theta}, {var_phi}), {Psi} being magnetic flux function, {theta} and {var_phi} being the poloidal and toroidal angles, respectively. All basic physics, like wave refraction, reflection and diffraction are self consistently included, along with the fundamental ion and ion minority cyclotron resonances, two ion hybrid resonance, electron Landau and TTMP absorption. Antenna reactive impedance and loading resistance are also calculated and urgently needed for an antenna -generator matching. This is accomplished in a real confining magnetic field being varying in a plasma major radius direction, in toroidal and poloidal directions, through making use of the hot dense plasma wave induced currents with account to the finite Larmor radius effects. We expand the solution in Fourier series over the toroidal ({var_phi}) and poloidal ({theta}) angles and solve resulting ordinary differential equations in a radial like {Psi}-coordinate by finite difference method. The constructed discretization scheme is divergent-free one, thus retaining the basic properties of original equations. The Fourier expansion over the angle coordinates has given to us the possibility to correctly construct the ''parallel'' wave number k{sub //}, and thereby to correctly describe the ICRF waves absorption by a hot plasma. The toroidal harmonics are tightly coupled with each

  11. Steady state scenario development with elevated minimum safety factor on DIII-D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holcomb, C. T.; Ferron, J. R.; Luce, T. C.; Petrie, T. W.; Park, J. M.; Turco, F.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Okabayashi, M.; Lasnier, C. T.; Hanson, J. M.; Politzter, P. A.; In, Y.; Hyatt, A. W.; La Haye, R. J.; Lanctot, M. J.

    2014-09-01

    On DIII-D (Luxon 2005 Fusion Sci. Technol. 48 828), a high β scenario with minimum safety factor (qmin) near 1.4 has been optimized with new tools and shown to be a favourable candidate for long pulse or steady state operation in future devices. The new capability to redirect up to 5 MW of neutral beam injection (NBI) from on- to off-axis improves the ability to sustain elevated qmin with a less peaked pressure profile. These changes increase the ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) n = 1 mode βN limit thus providing a path forward for increasing the noninductive current drive fraction by operating at high βN. Quasi-stationary discharges free of tearing modes have been sustained at βN = 3.5 and βT = 3.6% for two current profile diffusion timescales (about 3 s) limited by neutral beam duration. The discharge performance has normalized fusion performance expected to give fusion gain Q ≈ 5 in a device the size of ITER. Analysis of the poloidal flux evolution and current drive balance show that the loop voltage profile is almost relaxed even with 25% of the current driven inductively, and qmin remains elevated near 1.4. These observations increase confidence that the current profile will not evolve to one unstable to a tearing mode. In preliminary tests a divertor heat flux reduction technique based on producing a radiating mantle with neon injection appears compatible with this operating scenario. 0D model extrapolations suggest it may be possible to push this scenario up to 100% noninductive current drive by raising βN. Similar discharges with qmin = 1.5-2 were susceptible to tearing modes and off-axis fishbones, and with qmin > 2 lower normalized global energy confinement time is observed.

  12. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  13. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-01-01

    The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

  14. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

  15. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  16. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-11-15

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  17. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  18. Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  19. DEROCS: A computer program to simulate offshore oil and natural gas development scenarios and onshore service base requirements

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marcus, Philip A.; Smith, E.T.; Robinson, S.R.; Wong, A.T.

    1977-01-01

    The FORTRAN IV (H) computer program, DEROCS, constructs Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) resource development scenarios and quantifies the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases necessary to support offshore oil and gas operations. The acronym DEROCS stands for 'Development of Energy Resources of the Outer Continental Shelf.' The user may specify the number, timing, and amounts of offshore oil and natural gas finds, onshore service base locations, and multiplier relationships between offshore development activities and onshore land, supply, labor and facility requirements. The program determines schedules of platform installation, development drilling, production from platforms, and well workover, and calculates on a yearly basis the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases demanded by offshore activities. We present two examples of program application.

  20. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  1. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  2. Development and the Information Age: Four Global Scenarios for the Future of Information and Communication Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howkins, John, Ed.; Valantin, Robert, Ed.

    This publication describes the rationale for and processes of a 5-day workshop conducted in 1996 to build an understanding about the complexities of information communication technologies (ICT) and development, in order to assist in the preparation of reports for the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development (UNCSTD). The…

  3. Revealing Risks in Adaptation Planning: expanding Uncertainty Treatment and dealing with Large Projection Ensembles during Planning Scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Wood, A.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation planning assessments often rely on single methods for climate projection downscaling and hydrologic analysis, do not reveal uncertainties from associated method choices, and thus likely produce overly confident decision-support information. Recent work by the authors has highlighted this issue by identifying strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic impacts. This work has shown that many of the methodological choices made can alter the magnitude, and even the sign of the climate change signal. Such results motivate consideration of both sources of method uncertainty within an impacts assessment. Consequently, the authors have pursued development of improved downscaling techniques spanning a range of method classes (quasi-dynamical and circulation-based statistical methods) and developed approaches to better account for hydrologic analysis uncertainty (multi-model; regional parameter estimation under forcing uncertainty). This presentation summarizes progress in the development of these methods, as well as implications of pursuing these developments. First, having access to these methods creates an opportunity to better reveal impacts uncertainty through multi-method ensembles, expanding on present-practice ensembles which are often based only on emissions scenarios and GCM choices. Second, such expansion of uncertainty treatment combined with an ever-expanding wealth of global climate projection information creates a challenge of how to use such a large ensemble for local adaptation planning. To address this challenge, the authors are evaluating methods for ensemble selection (considering the principles of fidelity, diversity and sensitivity) that is compatible with present-practice approaches for abstracting change scenarios from any "ensemble of opportunity". Early examples from this development will also be presented.

  4. Scenarios for acceleration in fish development and the role of metamorphosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Pecquerie, L.; Augustine, S.; Jusup, M.

    2011-11-01

    We compare various alternative explanations of why embryo development is sometimes slow relative to juvenile and adult development on the basis of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model and make the comparison with avian altricial versus precocial development. We discuss the role of the energy investment ratio, which combines four different aspects of DEBs: allocation, assimilation, mobilisation and costs for structure. We show how this ratio affects the morphology of growth curves: the ratio of the slopes at start and birth during embryonic growth, as well as the von Bertalanffy time as function of ultimate length during post-embryonic growth. We propose an extension of the standard DEB model that combines a Gompertz (i.e. exponential) start with a von Bertalanffy 'tail' with a smooth transition; a combination that has been applied frequently in fisheries research and here given a mechanistic significance. Implications are that a slow embryonic development is combined with a fast post-metamorphic one and that parameters at metamorphosis depend on feeding history prior to metamorphosis. Identical individuals, in terms of parameter values and amounts of reserve and structure, will become permanently different when they experience different (local) environments, even if they experience identical environments after metamorphosis. This might explain part of the parameter variation amongst individuals.

  5. Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-01-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers' perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that…

  6. Western oil-shale development: a technology assessment. Volume 2: technology characterization and production scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-01-01

    A technology characterization of processes that may be used in the oil shale industry is presented. The six processes investigated are TOSCO II, Paraho Direct, Union B, Superior, Occidental MIS, and Lurgi-Ruhrgas. A scanario of shale oil production to the 300,000 BPD level by 1990 is developed. (ACR)

  7. Teacher/Scientist Partnership Develops a Simulated Natural Disaster Scenario to Enhance Student Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Wurstner, Signe K.; Herr, Cheryl; Andrews, Gregg L.; Feaster-Alley, Kathy

    2005-11-01

    National science education standards emphasize actively engaging students in developing the abilities of and understandings about scientific inquiry as a way to learn important concepts in the earth sciences and other disciplines. Too few high quality instructional tools, based on the national standards, currently exist that model this type of activity for sixth-grade students. To promote this approach, we created a national laboratory/middle school partnership to develop a hands-on, inquiry-based research project related to flash floods in southeastern Washington State. The project, conducted during the 2003-2004 school year, was built on the middle-school Catastrophic Events module developed by the National Science Resource Center. Seventeen student research teams deepened their understanding of geology, hydrology, and meteorology and applied this understanding as they analyzed and evaluated data they collected. The student teams wrote technical reports and created posters that synthesized the data and presented conclusions and recommendations based on their findings. The project models a successful approach for developing an inquiry-based earth science project and creating a meaningful partnership between schools and scientists.

  8. Estimating future ecoregion distributions within the Okavango Delta Wetlands based on hydrological simulations and future climate and development scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milzow, C.; Burg, V.; Kinzelbach, W.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryThe terminal wetlands of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana are driven by the balance between inflows and evapotranspiration. The present situation is threatened by climate change and possible agricultural and industrial development in Botswana and the upstream countries Angola and Namibia. A new balance will affect the spatial extent and character of the Okavango Delta Wetlands. We apply a distributed hydrological model to study the impact of those threats on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The relation between the present distribution of hydrological conditions and the occurrence of vegetation classes is investigated and a good correlation is found between depth to groundwater and vegetation class. By assuming that the distribution of vegetation will in the long term adapt to hydrological conditions, the simulated hydrological conditions under climate change and water management scenarios are translated into vegetation maps for these scenarios. Drier conditions are expected for the future and aquatic vegetation zones will be reduced in size. This change will however occur non-homogeneously over the Delta.

  9. Development of a Drought Severity Assessment Framework using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Products under Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohanty, B. P.; Shin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Evaluating drought severity based on future climate scenarios plays an important role for water resources management. In this study we assessed drought severity based on soil moisture for individual soil-crop combinations. Based on the historical data, pixel-scale hydraulic parameters at finer-scales were estimated from remotely sensed (RS) soil moisture using a newly developed algorithm EMOGA (Ensemble Multiple Operators Genetic Algorithm) coupled with Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) hydrological model. These estimated hydraulic parameters along with meteorological variables obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) were used to predict soil moisture using the SWAP model. Further, drought severity was calculated using a soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) based on the projected soil moisture obtained from the SWAP model. The proposed model was evaluated based on synthetic and field data under different hydro-climates (Lubbock, Texas; Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma; Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa). Finer-scale root zone soil moisture predictions were considerably influenced by various combinations of environmental factors (soils, crops, groundwater table, etc.) along with GCM scenarios. However, these local environmental factors had relatively limited impacts (compared to precipitation dynamics) on reducing drought severity in the study region. The absolute SMDI values do indicate the occurrence of agricultural drought during 2010-2020. Thus, our proposed approach can be used to assess drought severity at finer-scales using a RS soil moisture product for efficient agricultural/water resources management.

  10. Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Annett, Martin S.; Horta, Lucas G.; Jackson, Karen E.; Polanco, Michael A.; Littell, Justin D.

    2012-01-01

    Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were

  11. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  13. [Agrarian movements, development alternatives and food security in Central America: scenarios of transition].

    PubMed

    Rodriguez Rojas, R

    1991-01-01

    This article, based on personal experiences with a network of organizations of small and medium agricultural producers in Central America, aims to present the views of peasant organizations concerning agrarian problems in the region. The 3 major sections of work define the place of peasant agriculture in the traditional agrarian structure and the new problems resulting from the structural adjustment programs of the 1980s; separately describe the new peasant movements emerging in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, identifying common themes an efforts at international collaboration; and explore the positions of the peasant organizations on the optimal strategies for agricultural development and agrarian change. Agriculture remains the backbone of the Central American economies. But because the economic model in the region is 1 of accumulation characterized by dependency, concentration of capital, and social marginalization, the agrarian structure is at the basis of social tensions. Efforts to develop peasant agriculture and to give small producers access to marketing and credit services have been weak and sporadic. The new peasant movements are less inclined than those of the past to employ tactics of confrontation in their efforts to secure access to land and better working conditions. The new movement is the expression of small market producers sometimes grouped into associations who are oriented to production of basic foodstuffs for the internal market. A new concern with adaptation and negotiation is evident. The new organizations have in common a belief in their ability to propose new solutions to regional problems. Their views are founded on a positive assessment of the ability of peasant agriculture to produce food and add dynamism to the regional economy after barriers to credit, technological progress, and modernization in general are removed. Signs of increased cooperation are evident between peasant organizations and other groups

  14. Electronics and telecommunications in Poland, issues and perspectives: Part III. Innovativeness, applications, economy, development scenarios, politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modelski, Józef; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2010-09-01

    Electronics is under development in this country in an organized and institutional way since the beginning of 30-ties of the previous century. It grew up from electrical engineering of weak currents and its first name used popularly was communications. It was time when television was born and the radio was maturing. Electronics is a branch of research and technology which deals with generation and processing of electrical and electromagnetic signals. A subject of telecommunications is signal transmission for a distance. Electronics and telecommunications (ET) includes or is combined with other branches like: microelectronics, radioelectronics, optoelectronics, photonics, acoustoelectronics, magnetronics, bioelectronics, energoelectronics, material engineering, semiconductor physics, automation and robotics, mechatronics and microsystems, informatics, teleinformatics, software engineering and other. Devices and functional systems of ET such as computers, data warehouses, cell phones, TV sets, Internet, GPS are build of electronic components and circuits. ET is a branch which belongs to hi-tech area, where the products gather a large load of knowledge of value overcoming frequently the price of work and material. ET has recently turned to an active participant of the processes of generation, storing, processing, transportation, distribution and usage of knowledge in the society. ET started to create artificial intelligence, co-creates intellectual property, searches for knowledge in big data sets, aids medicine, extends virtual/augmented reality, builds Internet of persons and things, strengthens security, protects natural environment, facilitates our life, aids our decisions, activates individuals, equalizes chances, provides convenient personal communications and access to data, starts building a penetrating ubiquitous infrastructure, ceases to be only a branch of technology, grows into the social space, touches culture, sociology, psychology and art. Such an

  15. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  16. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  17. A pore-level scenario for the development of mixed-wettability in oil reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Kovscek, A.R.; Wong, H.; Radke, C.J.

    1992-09-01

    Understanding the role of thin films in porous media is vital if wettability is to be elucidated at the pore level. The type and thickness of films coating pore walls determines reservoir wettability and whether or not reservoir rock can be altered from its initial state of wettability. Pore shape, especially pore wall curvature, is an important factor in determining wetting-film thicknesses. Yet, pore shape and the physics of thin wetting films are generally neglected in models of flow in porous rocks. This paper incorporates thin-film forces into a collection of star-shaped capillary tubes model to describe the geological development of mixed-wettability in reservoir rock. Here, mixed-wettability refers to continuous and distinct oil and water-wetting surfaces coexisting in the porous medium. The proposed model emphasizes the remarkable role of thin films. New pore-level fluid configurations arise that are quite unexpected. For example, efficient water displacement of oil (i.e, low residual oil saturation) characteristic of mixed-wettability porous media is ascribed to interconnected oil lenses or rivulets which bridge the walls adjacent to a pore corner. Predicted residual oil saturations are approximately 35 % less in mixed-wet rock compared to completely water-wet rock. Calculated capillary pressure curves mimic those of mixed-wet porous media in the primary drainage of water, imbibition of water, and secondary drainage modes. Amott-Harvey indices range from {minus}0.18 to 0.36 also in good agreement with experimental values. (Morrow et al, 1986; Judhunandan and Morrow, 1991).

  18. Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

  19. Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

    2014-12-01

    The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  1. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate

  2. 77 FR 68047 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-15

    ... based on the annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\1\\ 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). Table 1... scenarios for covered institutions. \\1\\ Annual Stress Test, 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). II. STRESS TESTS... of Annual Stress Test Scenarios AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC),...

  3. Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chabi, A.

    2015-12-01

    AbstractBackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

  4. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  5. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    PubMed Central

    Davey, Sanjeev; Davey, Anuradha

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Currently, many cheaper “practice management software” (PMS) are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods: First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009) guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst) software using binary random effects (REs) model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results: Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100–226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85). The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion: Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system. PMID:25949969

  6. Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

    2014-01-01

    Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors. PMID:24693260

  7. Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

    2014-01-01

    Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors. PMID:24693260

  8. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research

  9. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    SciTech Connect

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens; Lommerzheim, Andre; Mrugalla, Sabine

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  10. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  11. A MATLAB/Simulink methodology for simulating dynamic imaging IR missile scenarios for use in countermeasure development and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tremblay, J. P.; Viau, C. R.

    2009-09-01

    The paper describes a methodology for characterizing the signatures of targets for Imaging Infrared (IIR) missiles and generating dynamic missile engagement scenarios using MathWorks tools (primarily MATLAB and Simulink). The over-all objective of this work was to develop high fidelity physics-based simulations of the attack of IIR missiles on targets that are using various types of countermeasures for survivability. While the methodology has been implemented in products used for analyses of both ship and main battle tank protection this paper focuses on the ship application. The methodology involves a multi-step process. First the infrared signatures of the objects are characterized using a graphical tool that enables the user to select individual or groups of surfaces on the objects (targets and countermeasures) and specify their surface temperatures and spectral emissivities. Second, a dynamic IR scene generator creates the scene as viewed by the missile's seeker. Then an imaging IR seeker, using the option of several tracking algorithms, discriminates the target. Finally, the inclusion of dynamic models for missile guidance, aerodynamics and propulsion together with signal propagation enable the closing of the loop in the missile's fly-out. The simulation dynamically computes the distance between each surface and the missile seeker and uses the specified atmospheric attenuation profile to produce a simulated IR image at the seeker. This is processed using several optional tracking algorithms to generate steering signals. This process is repeated every time-step of the simulation and determines the trajectory of the missile and the hit or miss of the missile at engagement completion. The paper includes the following topics: characterizing IR signatures, generating dynamic IR scenes, simulating representative close-loop missile fly-out engagements, evaluating performance and running simulation batches.

  12. CMIP5 Global Climate Model Performance Evaluation and Climate Scenario Development over the South-Central United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosendahl, D. H.; Rupp, D. E.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Moore, B., III

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary drivers of regional downscaling and impacts research - from which relevant information for stakeholders is generated at the regional and local levels. Therefore understanding uncertainties in GCMs is a fundamental necessity if the scientific community is to provide useful and reliable future climate change information that can be utilized by end users and decision makers. Two different assessments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM ensemble were conducted for the south-central United States. The first was a performance evaluation over the historical period for metrics of near surface meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and system-based phenomena, which include large-scale processes that can influence the region (e.g., low-level jet, ENSO). These metrics were used to identify a subset of models of higher performance across the region which were then used to constrain future climate change projections. A second assessment explored climate scenario development where all model climate change projections were assumed equally likely and future projections with the highest impact were identified (e.g., temperature and precipitation combinations of hottest/driest, hottest/wettest, and highest variability). Each of these assessments identify a subset of models that may prove useful to regional downscaling and impacts researchers who may be restricted by the total number of GCMs they can utilize. Results from these assessments will be provided as well as a discussion on when each would be useful and appropriate to use.

  13. Predicting temporal development of discharge and nitrate in relation to dynamic changes of spatial crop distribution in three land use scenario runs with a catchment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guse, Björn; Pfannerstill, Matthias; Geertz, Jörn; Fohrer, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    In the past years, relevant changes in the use of agricultural areas were observed in German catchments. To achieve good ecological conditions in river basins as demanded by the European Water Framework Directive, the implications of land use change on water quantity and especially water quality needs to be quantified. Therefore, recent data of agricultural crops are prepared for the catchment scale. Based on this, simulations of future land use scenarios are carried out with a hydrological catchment model to analyse the linkage between dynamic changes of land use and modeled discharge and nutrients. Spatial and temporal variations of changes within agricultural areas lead to a dynamic change of pressures on the ecological status of rivers. While static land use distributions assume constant conditions for agricultural areas for the whole simulation period, dynamic changes of agricultural areas and their spatial patterns consider the varying land use conditions within the scenario simulation. In our study, a dynamic modeling of spatial distributions for agricultural crops and its impacts on discharge and nitrate is presented at the catchment scale. The area proportions of the crops are estimated in a data-based statistical approach and are implemented into the eco-hydrological model SWAT for recent and future conditions To obtain an accurate reproduction of the water cycle, the SWAT model is calibrated for discharge and nitrate time series for recent conditions. Three land use change scenarios are developed for the study catchment focusing on a dominance of food production, energy crops and on a best ecological practise. According to the scenarios, the spatial crop distribution is updated dynamically for each year, while non-agricultural land use types remain constant. The SWAT model provides satisfying results for discharge and nitrate. The evaluation of the three land use change scenarios for the period from 2021 to 2030 shows low differences in discharge, while

  14. Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

    2009-03-19

    In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

  15. 78 FR 64153 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-28

    ... based on the annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\2\\ 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). Table 1..., 77 FR 52792, 52796, n.11 (Aug. 30, 2012). The commenter also believed that stress testing models... scenarios for covered institutions. \\1\\ Annual Stress Test, 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). II. Stress...

  16. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

  17. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  18. Energy technology scenarios for use in water resources assessments under Section 13a of the Federal Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act

    SciTech Connect

    1980-10-01

    This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oil price (HWOP) and low world oil price (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oil price cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

  19. Development of instability and turbulence in overturning lee waves: the map of different scenarios in Re–Pr space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakovenko, S. N.

    2016-06-01

    Scenarios of the transition to turbulence in overturning lee waves generated by the two-dimensional obstacle in a stably stratified flow have been explored by visualization of velocity and scalar (density) fields, with analysis of spanwise spectra. The results are obtained by numerical solution of the continuity, Navier–Stokes and scalar equations for stratified fluid with the Boussinesq approximation, for varied Reynolds and Prandtl numbers relating to tank experiments, situations in atmosphere and oceans. Based on the computed data, the dependence of the most unstable perturbation wavelength on Reynolds and Prandtl numbers is derived.

  20. Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo

    2014-12-15

    This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments. PMID:25218330

  1. Development of long pulse RF heating and current drive for H-mode scenarios with metallic walls in WEST

    SciTech Connect

    Ekedahl, Annika Bourdelle, Clarisse; Artaud, Jean-François; Bernard, Jean-Michel; Bufferand, Hugo; Colas, Laurent; Decker, Joan; Delpech, Léna; Dumont, Rémi; Goniche, Marc; Helou, Walid; Hillairet, Julien; Lombard, Gilles; Magne, Roland; Mollard, Patrick; Nardon, Eric; Peysson, Yves; Tsitrone, Emmanuelle

    2015-12-10

    The longstanding expertise of the Tore Supra team in long pulse heating and current drive with radiofrequency (RF) systems will now be exploited in the WEST device (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) [1]. WEST will allow an integrated long pulse tokamak programme for testing W-divertor components at ITER-relevant heat flux (10-20 MW/m{sup 2}), while treating crucial aspects for ITER-operation, such as avoidance of W-accumulation in long discharges, monitoring and control of heat fluxes on the metallic plasma facing components (PFCs) and coupling of RF waves in H-mode plasmas. Scenario modelling using the METIS-code shows that ITER-relevant heat fluxes are compatible with the sustainment of long pulse H-mode discharges, at high power (up to 15 MW / 30 s at I{sub P} = 0.8 MA) or high fluence (up to 10 MW / 1000 s at I{sub P} = 0.6 MA) [2], all based on RF heating and current drive using Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) and Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD). This paper gives a description of the ICRH and LHCD systems in WEST, together with the modelling of the power deposition of the RF waves in the WEST-scenarios.

  2. Development of long pulse RF heating and current drive for H-mode scenarios with metallic walls in WEST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekedahl, Annika; Bourdelle, Clarisse; Artaud, Jean-François; Bernard, Jean-Michel; Bufferand, Hugo; Colas, Laurent; Decker, Joan; Delpech, Léna; Dumont, Rémi; Goniche, Marc; Helou, Walid; Hillairet, Julien; Lombard, Gilles; Magne, Roland; Mollard, Patrick; Nardon, Eric; Peysson, Yves; Tsitrone, Emmanuelle

    2015-12-01

    The longstanding expertise of the Tore Supra team in long pulse heating and current drive with radiofrequency (RF) systems will now be exploited in the WEST device (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) [1]. WEST will allow an integrated long pulse tokamak programme for testing W-divertor components at ITER-relevant heat flux (10-20 MW/m2), while treating crucial aspects for ITER-operation, such as avoidance of W-accumulation in long discharges, monitoring and control of heat fluxes on the metallic plasma facing components (PFCs) and coupling of RF waves in H-mode plasmas. Scenario modelling using the METIS-code shows that ITER-relevant heat fluxes are compatible with the sustainment of long pulse H-mode discharges, at high power (up to 15 MW / 30 s at IP = 0.8 MA) or high fluence (up to 10 MW / 1000 s at IP = 0.6 MA) [2], all based on RF heating and current drive using Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) and Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD). This paper gives a description of the ICRH and LHCD systems in WEST, together with the modelling of the power deposition of the RF waves in the WEST-scenarios.

  3. Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: findings from five case studies.

    PubMed

    König, Hannes Jochen; Uthes, Sandra; Schuler, Johannes; Zhen, Lin; Purushothaman, Seema; Suarma, Utia; Sghaier, Mongi; Makokha, Stella; Helming, Katharina; Sieber, Stefan; Chen, Le; Brouwer, Floor; Morris, Jake; Wiggering, Hubert

    2013-09-01

    The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups. PMID:23218733

  4. Innovative technologies to understand hydrogeomorphic impacts of climate change scenarios on gully development in drylands: case study from Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frankl, Amaury; Stal, Cornelis; Abraha, Amanuel; De Wulf, Alain; Poesen, Jean

    2014-05-01

    Taking climate change scenarios into account, rainfall patterns are likely to change over the coming decades in eastern Africa. In brief, large parts of eastern Africa are expected to experience a wetting, including seasonality changes. Gullies are threshold phenomena that accomplish most of their geomorphic change during short periods of strong rainfall. Understanding the links between geomorphic change and rainfall characteristics in detail, is thus crucial to ensure the sustainability of future land management. In this study, we present image-based 3D modelling as a low-cost, flexible and rapid method to quantify gully morphology from terrestrial photographs. The methodology was tested on two gully heads in Northern Ethiopia. Ground photographs (n = 88-235) were taken during days with cloud cover. The photographs were processed in PhotoScan software using a semi-automated Structure from Motion-Multi View Stereo (SfM-MVS) workflow. As a result, full 3D models were created, accurate at cm level. These models allow to quantify gully morphology in detail, including information on undercut walls and soil pipe inlets. Such information is crucial for understanding the hydrogeomorphic processes involved. Producing accurate 3D models after each rainfall event, allows to model interrelations between rainfall, land management, runoff and erosion. Expected outcomes are the production of detailed vulnerability maps that allow to design soil and water conservation measures in a cost-effective way. Keywords: 3D model, Ethiopia, Image-based 3D modelling, Gully, PhotoScan, Rainfall.

  5. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  6. Development of a versatile lab-on-a-chip enzyme assay platform for pathogen detection in CBRNE scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klemm, Richard; Schattschneider, Sebastian; Jahn, Tobias; Hlawatsch, Nadine; Julich, Sandra; Becker, Holger; Gärtner, Claudia

    2013-05-01

    The ability to integrate complete assays on a microfluidic chip helps to greatly simplify instrument requirements and allows the use of lab-on-a-chip technology in the field. A core application for such field-portable systems is the detection of pathogens in a CBRNE scenario such as permanent monitoring of airborne pathogens, e.g. in metro stations or hospitals etc. As one assay methodology for the pathogen identification, enzymatic assays were chosen. In order evaluate different detection strategies, the realized on-chip enzyme assay module has been designed as a general platform chip. In all application cases, the assays are based on immobilized probes located in microfluidic channels. Therefore a microfluidic chip was realized containing a set of three individually addressable channels, not only for detection of the sample itself also to have a set of references for a quantitative analysis. It furthermore includes two turning valves and a waste container for clear and sealed storage of potential pathogenic liquids to avoid contamination of the environment. All liquids remain in the chip and can be disposed of in proper way subsequently to the analysis. The chip design includes four inlet ports consisting of one sample port (Luer interface) and three mini Luer interfaces for fluidic support of e.g. washing buffer, substrate and enzyme solution. The sample can be applied via a special, sealable sampling vessel with integrated female Luer interface. Thereby also pre-anaytical contamination of the environment can be provided. Other reagents that are required for analysis will be stored off chip.

  7. The development of applied action levels for soil contact: a scenario for the exposure of humans to soil in a residential setting.

    PubMed Central

    Sedman, R M

    1989-01-01

    The California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual, 1985, was developed by the California Department of Health Services to provide a detailed technical basis for managing uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The Decision Tree describes a process that relies on criteria, Applied Action Levels (AALs) to evaluate and, if necessary, mitigate the impact of uncontrolled hazardous waste sites on the public health and the environment. AALs are developed for individual substances, species, and media of exposure. AALs have been routinely developed for the media of air and water; however, an approach for developing AALs for soil contact was lacking. Given that the air pathway for soil contact is addressed in AALs for air, two routes of exposure, ingestion and dermal contact, are addressed in developing AALs for soil contact. The approach assumes a lifetime of exposure to soil in a residential setting. Age-related changes in exposure are included in the scenario. Exposure to soil due to ingestion and dermal contact are quantitated independently and then integrated in the final exposure scenario. A mass balance approach using four elements is employed to quantitate soil ingestion for a young child. Changes in soil ingestion with age are based on age-related changes in blood lead concentration and mouthing behavior. Dermal exposure to soil was determined from studies that reported skin soil load and from estimates of exposed skin surface area. Age-related changes in the dermal exposure to soil are also based on changes with age of blood lead concentration and mouthing behavior. The estimates of exposure to soil due to ingestion and dermal contact are integrated, and an approach for developing AALs is advanced. AALs are derived by allocating the Maximum Exposure Level as described in the Decision Tree to the average daily exposure to soil. Toxicokinetic considerations for the two routes of exposure must be included in deriving AALs for the soil medium of exposure. PMID:2651104

  8. POTENTIAL WATER QUANTITY AND WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS ON MAJOR RIVERS IN THE OHIO BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared in support of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program supported by the Environmental Protection Agency. Water consumption levels associated with power plant cooling were estimated for different energy develop...

  9. EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

    PubMed

    Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

    2015-12-01

    Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. PMID:26051596

  10. Application of Use Case Scenarios to Support the Development of a Future SSA Governance and Data Policy in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valero, Juan-Luis; Albani, Sergio; Gallardo, Beatriz; Matute, Jacobo; O'Dwyer, Anthony

    2013-08-01

    Space Situational Awareness (SSA) refers to the knowledge of location and function of space objects and of the space environment, including operational satellites, space debris, near Earth objects and space weather. The development of a European SSA system will underpin the exploitation of European space assets, representing a key capability contributing to the autonomous access to space for Europe. [1] The European Union Satellite Centre (EU SatCen), through the "Support to Precursor space situational Awareness services" (SPA) project, has backed SSA activities in Europe by providing a set of suggestions and recommendations to support decision-making regarding the development of SSA Governance and Data Policy. [10

  11. Alaska OCS socioeconomic studies program. Technical report number 31. Bering-Norton petroleum development scenarios local socioeconomic systems analysis. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Ender, R.L.; Gorski, S.E.; Harrison, G.; Braund, S.

    1980-07-01

    The document provides a baseline profile of the communities of Nome and Kotzebue encompassing local socioeconomic conditions; and an impacts analysis of Nome, Alaska with and without the proposed oil lease sale scheduled for Norton Sound. Topics include an historical perspective, a comprehensive discussion of the local economic conditions and current demographic information; local government revenues and expenditures and community support service sectors including health and social services, leisure, education, public safety, utilities, land use and housing. Socioeconomic impacts are defined with three different growth scenarios stemming from oil development and are compared to a non-OCS base case which defines impacts of growth without the presence of oil development. A final section includes a comprehensive discussion of the assumptions, methods and standards, used in the assessment of impacts due to growth in population employment and service sectors in Nome, Alaska.

  12. Blueprint for the development of low carbon society scenarios for Asian regions- case study of Iskandar Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, C. S.; Matsuoka, Y.; Chau, L. W.; Teh, B. T.; Simson, J. J.; Gomi, K.

    2013-06-01

    Malaysian government aims to reduce 40% reduction of carbon emission intensity by the year 2020 using 2005 as the base year. Several mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing environmental and climate change are formulated at national, regional and local level to mitigate greenhouse gases. This paper aims to examine local and regional resilient policy actions to reduce greenhouse gases using the empirical case of Iskandar Malaysia. The study case is selected because it is one of the fast developing economic corridor regions in Malaysia. In this study, a low carbon society blueprint is initiated to guide the rapid development of this economic corridor towards low carbon green growth. The blueprint provides the sustainable green growth roadmap with major 12 actions for the region. It is done through a bottom-up approach where stakeholder discussions are carried out to allow local communities participation in the plan formulation.

  13. Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

    The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

  14. Measuring change in depression-related interpretation bias: development and validation of a parallel ambiguous scenarios test.

    PubMed

    Rohrbacher, Heike; Reinecke, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Depressed mood is associated with making negatively biased interpretations of ambiguous everyday events. Experimental modification towards a more optimistic interpretation has become a focus of recent research. However, to date, no measures exist that have been tested with respect to their psychometric properties that justify repeated administration to capture change. We aimed to develop and evaluate a pragmatic assessment instrument, consisting of a 30-item questionnaire (long version) and two 15-item parallel short versions (A and B). Items were generated as ambiguous sentences, reflecting three relevant content areas based on Beck's cognitive triad. The sentences were rated for pleasantness, and this emotional appraisal task indicates the emotional valence of the interpretation. Due to the intention to develop a parallel test version, item-twins were generated. All three versions of the instrument were found to be structurally stable, internally consistent and valid. In line with Beck's cognitive triad in depression, confirmatory factor analyses determined a three-factor solution (i.e. self, experiences and future). Significant correlations were found between all scales and depressive mood. The two short versions represent the same underlying constructs, share identical psychometric properties and possess high parallel-test reliability. This study is the first to evaluate and confirm the factorial validity as well as the parallel-test reliability of an interpretation bias measure. It is suitable to measure bias modification and has therefore great potential for research and clinical practice. PMID:24903154

  15. Development of a Standard Test Scenario to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Portable Fire Extinguishers on Lithium-ion Battery Fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juarez, Alfredo; Harper, Susan A.; Hirsch, David B.; Carriere, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Many sources of fuel are present aboard current spacecraft, with one especially hazardous source of stored energy: lithium ion batteries. Lithium ion batteries are a very hazardous form of fuel due to their self-sustaining combustion once ignited, for example, by an external heat source. Batteries can become extremely energetic fire sources due to their high density electrochemical energy content that may, under duress, be violently converted to thermal energy and fire in the form of a thermal runaway. Currently, lithium ion batteries are the preferred types of batteries aboard international spacecraft and therefore are routinely installed, collectively forming a potentially devastating fire threat to a spacecraft and its crew. Currently NASA is developing a fine water mist portable fire extinguisher for future use on international spacecraft. As its development ensues, a need for the standard evaluation of various types of fire extinguishers against this potential threat is required to provide an unbiased means of comparing between fire extinguisher technologies and ranking them based on performance.

  16. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  17. A scenario-based approach to modeling development: a prototype model of C. elegans vulval fate specification.

    PubMed

    Kam, Na'aman; Kugler, Hillel; Marelly, Rami; Appleby, Lara; Fisher, Jasmin; Pnueli, Amir; Harel, David; Stern, Michael J; Hubbard, E Jane Albert

    2008-11-01

    Studies of developmental biology are often facilitated by diagram "models" that summarize the current understanding of underlying mechanisms. The increasing complexity of our understanding of development necessitates computational models that can extend these representations to include their dynamic behavior. Here we present a prototype model of Caenorhabditis elegans vulval precursor cell fate specification that represents many processes crucial for this developmental event but that are hard to integrate using other modeling methodologies. We demonstrate the integrative capabilities of our methodology by comprehensively incorporating the contents of three seminal papers, showing that this methodology can lead to comprehensive models of developmental biology. The prototype computational model was built and is run using a language (Live Sequence Charts) and tool (the Play-Engine) that facilitate the same conceptual processes biologists use to construct and probe diagram-type models. We demonstrate that this modeling approach permits rigorous tests of mutual consistency between experimental data and mechanistic hypotheses and can identify specific conflicting results, providing a useful approach to probe developmental systems. PMID:18706404

  18. Coupling atmospheric, hydrological and hydraulic models to develop a catalogue of worst-case scenarios for extreme flooding in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Felder, Guido; Raible, Christoph C.; Martius, Olivia; Rössler, Ole

    2015-04-01

    Extreme flooding are a natural threat that leads to great economical cost, especially in densely populated areas such as Switzerland. However, the study of such extremes is difficult due to the fact they are, by definition, very rare, whereas the instrumental period is relatively short. This hampers the study of events with large return periods, which are precisely those more relevant from the impact point of view. Thus, new methodologies have to be developed that provide a deeper understanding of such disastrous situations and their driving mechanisms. This study employs a chain of models that allow the study of the frequency and severity of such situations and to analyse their driving physical mechanisms. First, a long climate simulation (a control simulation spanning more than 500 years) with the comprehensive Global Circulation Model (GCM) CESM1 is used as test-bed for producing a dataset of several centuries of physically consistent climate. This data is then used to filter out a number of case studies corresponding to extreme situations, which are selected as candidates for further analysis. However, although the physical consistency of this simulation ensures that the synoptic circulation leading to the selected events is plausible, the global model employs a coarse spatial resolution (1 degree) that precludes the accurate simulation of the precipitation in areas of complex topography such as Switzerland. Hence, once the dates of the candidate cases are selected within the GCM run, this dataset is downscaled with the Regional Climate Model (RCM) WRF. The RCM implements a spatial resolution of 2 km over the entire alpine area, which allows it to reproduce more accurately the precipitation induced by interactions between the large-scale forcing and the orography. The results show that WRF is able to improve the simulation of precipitation compared to the GCM alone. Although the large-scale flow and the location of the precipitation maxima is very similar in

  19. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  20. Multiuser development scenario for ICF

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, W.J.

    1985-10-01

    An outline is given of some of the various possible applications of ICF technology. Developmental paths for each application are briefly described. The implications on design and operation of the ICF facilities if multipurpose use is allowed are examined. (MOW)

  1. Identifying bio-physical, social and political challenges to catchment governance for sustainable freshwater fisheries in West Africa: Systems overview through scenario development in the SUSFISH project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sendzimir, Jan; Slezak, Gabriele; Melcher, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Chronic and episodic water scarcity prompted construction of 1400 reservoirs in Burkina Faso since 1950, greatly expanding fisheries production. These fisheries provided an increasingly important protein source for a population that has risen 600% since 1920, but production has plateaued, and dramatic declines in adult fish size suggest these fisheries are not sustainable. The SUSFISH project joined Austrian and Burkinabe scientists to increase local capacities to manage fisheries sustainably. SUSFISH has successfully increased capacity to monitor fish populations, identify endangered species, and use specific fish and macroinvertebrate species as bio-indicators of water and habitat quality as well as anthropogenic pressures. But projects to support sustainable development in Africa have a long history of failure if only based on transfer of technology and theory based on bio-physical sciences. This paper describes the processes and products of knowledge elicitation, scenario development and systems analysis to identify barriers and bridges to long-term sustainable fisheries development that arise from bio-physical, social, political and cultural causes, and, especially, interactions between them. Lessons learned and important on-going research questions are identified for both the natural and social sciences as they apply to managing catchments at multiple scales of governance, from local to national.

  2. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  3. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  4. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  5. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  6. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  7. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  8. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  9. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  10. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  11. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  12. Promotion of Cooperation among Research and Development Organizations in the Field of Vocational Training. Scenario of the Vocational Training Systems in the Federal Republic of Germany to 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1986

    A forward-looking scenario for the vocational training system extending to the year 1995 is composed of two parts. The first comprises a forecast, with both optimistic and pessimistic variants, relating to the economic, technical, political, and demographic contextual aspects that play a major role in determining the profile of the vocational…

  13. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  14. Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Global climatic change is expected to have severe effects on natural systems along with various socio-economic aspects of human life. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely used to study the impacts in future, with varied projections/simulations from the entire participating member GCMs. This has urged scientific communities across the world try to improve the understandings of future climate conditions, and reduce the uncertainties associated with them. In the present study, we have used various multi-modelling methods, both deterministic and probabilistic, to reduce the model uncertainties, in historical time period of 1970-2000. The analysis is performed for uncertainty bounds of precipitation and temperature using 10 selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Inter-comparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB). All the multi-modelling methods are applied and evaluated in accordance to their performance indicator using Taylor diagrams on simulating past climate for all 10 sub-basins. The best performing multi-model method, on basis of performance of all the climatic parameters, is chosen for a particular sub-basin and same is used to develop a probable future scenario for the period of 2010-2099. All the analysis and computations are performed on statistically downscaled GCM data to increase the accuracy and better capture the uncertainty bounds on sub-basin scale, as well as enhancing the ability of multi-modeling techniques. All the future time series are used to assess the uncertainties of climatic parameters for climate change analysis. Results have brought insight into each of the multi-modelling techniques i.e. highlighting the pros and cons of all the applied methods. It was also inferred that multi-modelling techniques varied from basin to basin and with different variables, as per their capabilities to capture the observation spread/uncertainty. Eventually, the different ensemble time series

  15. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  16. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  18. Evaluation of Precipitation from CMIP5 Models for Western Colorado and Development of a Scenario based Method for Regional Climate Change Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Arnott, J. C.; Rood, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    As the latest generation of climate and Earth system models become more complex , the use of model output to project certain impact relevant indicators for regional climate change adaptation planning is increasingly sought. However, barriers due to skill remain when utilizing this model data to project changes in precipitation over mountainous areas at regional and subregional scales. Complex topography, localized meteorological phenomenon, and other factors are still not well represented by global scale models, which can limit the representation of key impact criteria needed for planning.We explore limitations and opportunities of utilizing precipitation data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5) models to provide use relevant projections of future precipitation conditions in Western Colorado, with a focus on applications relevant to climate information needs in the resort community of Aspen. First, a model skill evaluation is conducted by comparing precipitation and temperature values of selected model ensemble from CMIP5 to observations during a historical period. The comparison is conducted for both temporal and spatial scales, on both yearly and seasonal increments. Results indicate that the models are more skillful at representing temperature than precipitation and that the apparent lack of skill for precipitation warrants caution in the use of such data in climate impacts assessment that serve to inform adaptation planning and preparedness decision making. In light of model evaluation, the authors introduce a scenario based method in which individual models within the CMIP5 ensemble are organized into plausible qualitative futures and individual model runs are selected as representative scenarios by which detailed analysis can then be applied. The results from scenario based method are viewed as useful for exploring regional climate futures in instances when it is not appropriate to utilize data directly from global-scale climate models.

  19. Physics-model-based nonlinear actuator trajectory optimization and safety factor profile feedback control for advanced scenario development in DIII-D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, J. E.; Boyer, M. D.; Shi, W.; Wehner, W. P.; Schuster, E.; Ferron, J. R.; Walker, M. L.; Humphreys, D. A.; Luce, T. C.; Turco, F.; Penaflor, B. G.; Johnson, R. D.

    2015-09-01

    DIII-D experimental results are reported to demonstrate the potential of physics-model-based safety factor profile control for robust and reproducible sustainment of advanced scenarios. In the absence of feedback control, variability in wall conditions and plasma impurities, as well as drifts due to external disturbances, can limit the reproducibility of discharges with simple pre-programmed scenario trajectories. The control architecture utilized is a feedforward + feedback scheme where the feedforward commands are computed off-line and the feedback commands are computed on-line. In this work, a first-principles-driven (FPD), physics-based model of the q profile and normalized beta ({β\\text{N}} ) dynamics is first embedded into a numerical optimization algorithm to design feedforward actuator trajectories that steer the plasma through the tokamak operating space to reach a desired stationary target state that is characterized by the achieved q profile and {β\\text{N}} . Good agreement between experimental results and simulations demonstrates the accuracy of the models employed for physics-model-based control design. Second, a feedback algorithm for q profile control is designed following an FPD approach, and the ability of the controller to achieve and maintain a target q profile evolution is tested in DIII-D high confinement (H-mode) experiments. The controller is shown to be able to effectively control the q profile when {β\\text{N}} is relatively close to the target, indicating the need for integrated q profile and {β\\text{N}} control to further enhance the ability to achieve robust scenario execution. The ability of an integrated q profile + {β\\text{N}} feedback controller to track a desired target is demonstrated through simulation.

  20. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  1. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  2. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  3. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  4. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    and to develop multiple response options. Coastal management actions can take anywhere from a few years for alterations to an existing levee to a decade or longer for large-scale, multi-use projects. Given the observed accelerated rate of global SLR in recent decades, it is now critical for the scientific community to help decision makers use scenario planning approaches for coastal adaptation in order to avoid future impacts of sea level rise and its effect on the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding.

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  6. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  7. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  8. Simulating the impact of urban sprawl on air quality and population exposure in the German Ruhr area. Part II: Development and evaluation of an urban growth scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Ridder, Koen; Lefebre, Filip; Adriaensen, Stefan; Arnold, Ute; Beckroege, Wolfgang; Bronner, Christine; Damsgaard, Ole; Dostal, Ivo; Dufek, Jiri; Hirsch, Jacky; IntPanis, Luc; Kotek, Zdenek; Ramadier, Thierry; Thierry, Annette; Vermoote, Stijn; Wania, Annett; Weber, Christiane

    The impact of uncontrolled urban growth ('sprawl') on air pollution and associated population exposure is investigated. This is done for the Ruhr area in Germany, by means of a coupled modelling system dealing with land use changes, traffic, meteorology, and atmospheric dispersion and chemistry. In a companion paper [De Ridder, K., Lefebre F., Adriaensen S., Arnold U., Beckroege W., Bronner C., Damsgaard O., Dostal I., Dufek J., Hirsch J., Int Panis L., Kotek Z., Ramadier T., Thierry A., Vermoote S., Wania A., Weber C., 2008. Simulating the impact of urban sprawl on air quality and population exposure in the German Ruhr area. Part I: reproducing the base state.], a description was given of the coupling of these models and of the validation of simulation results. In the present paper, a land use change scenario was implemented to mimic urban sprawl, relocating 12% of the urban population in the study domain to the green periphery. The resulting updated land use, population and employment density patterns were then used as input for traffic simulations, yielding an increase of total traffic volume by almost 17%. As a consequence, the domain-average simulated pollutant concentrations of ozone and particulate matter increased, though by a smaller amount, of approximately 4%. In a final step, population exposure to air pollution was calculated, both for the base case and the scenario simulations. A very slight domain-average exposure increase was found, of the order of a half percent. A compensating mechanism was identified, explaining this small figure. However, when stratifying the population into groups of individuals that were relocated to the urban periphery and those that were not, much larger exposure changes following urban sprawl emerged. Indeed, it was found that the relatively small proportion of relocated individuals benefited of a decrease of exposure to particulate matter by almost 13%, mainly because of their moving out of the most polluted areas; and

  9. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  10. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  11. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  12. SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

    1994-06-01

    General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

  13. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  14. A Methology for Assessing the Regional Transportation Energy Demands of Different Spatial Residential Development Scenarios: a Case Study for the Upper Housatonic River Basin, Massachusetts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oski, J. A.; Fabos, J. G.; Gross, M.

    1982-01-01

    A method is suggested whereby regional landscape planning efforts can be aided by the use of a geographic information system to determine sites for more energy efficient residential and mixed use developments within a study area. The location of land parcels suited for residential and mixed land use developments in the Upper Housatonic River Basin Study Area in Berkshire County, Massachusetts is described as well as the three development options. Significant steps in the procedure are discussed and the computation of the transportation energy requirement is elaborated.

  15. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  16. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  17. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  18. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  19. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  20. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  1. Other Perspectives for Developing Exposure Estimates: “SHEDS-Lite: Rapid Scenario-Based ExposurePredictions for Chemicals with Near-Field and Dietary Pathways”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Creative advances in exposure science are needed to support efficient and effective evaluation and management of chemical risks, particularly for chemicals in consumer products. This presentation will describe the development of EPA’s screening-level, probabilistic SHEDS-Li...

  2. Preliminary Steps Towards Integrating Climate and Land Use (Iclus): the Development of Land-Use Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Emissions Storylines (2008, External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This draft report is a description of the methods u...

  3. The Development of a Formative Scenario-Based Computer Assisted Assessment Tool in Psychology for Teachers: The PePCAA Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crisp, Victoria; Ward, Christine

    2008-01-01

    Formative computer assisted assessment has become increasingly attractive in Higher Education where providing useful feedback to large numbers of students can be difficult. However, the nature of such assessments has often been limited to objective questions such as multiple-choice. This paper reports on the development and initial trialling of a…

  4. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  5. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  6. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  7. Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

    2015-12-01

    Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent

  8. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  9. The Indian Media Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eapen, K. E.

    As background information for a discussion of India's communication system and its potential for social change, this paper briefly describes the country's physical characteristics, some of its cultural heritage and demographics, and the development of its education and railways. After a discussion of the folk media (traditional changes) of…

  10. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  11. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  12. Security message exchange interoperability scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tarman, Thomas

    1998-07-01

    This contribution describes three interoperability scenarios for the ATM Security Message Exchange (SME) protocol. These scenarios include network-wide signaling support for the Security Services Information Element, partial signaling support wherethe SSIE is only supported in private or workgroup ATM networks, and the case where the SSIE is nonsupported by any network elements (exceptthosethat implement security services). Explanatory text is proposed for inclusion infection 2.3 of the ATM Security Specification, Version 1.0.

  13. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  14. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  15. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  16. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  17. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  18. EPA’s Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of the Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool (ExpoFIRST) is to allow users to draw on data found in the 2011 EFH to develop user-defined scenarios based on route of exposure, medium, receptor(s), timeframe, and dose metric for a contaminant of conce...

  19. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  20. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  1. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  2. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  3. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  4. Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Patten, Kenneth O.; Rahmes, Tim

    1997-01-01

    This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

  5. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  6. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  7. Designing Scenarios for Human Action.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carroll, John M.

    1994-01-01

    An approach to the design of computer systems and applications in which scenarios of human-system interaction are a central working design representation are described and illustrated by examples from the design of a multimedia information system. (Contains 21 references.) (KRN)

  8. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  9. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  10. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  11. Active, Collaborative and Case-Based Learning with Computer-Based Case Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ward, Robert

    1998-01-01

    Discusses ideas and observations about the development, use, and pedagogy of computer-based case scenarios. Outlines two large computer-based case scenarios written to help students develop their skills and knowledge in business information systems. Considers factors in the design of computer-based case scenarios and related activities that might…

  12. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  13. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  14. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  15. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  16. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  17. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  18. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  19. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  20. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  1. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  2. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  3. Scenarios for Dutch Teacher Education. A Trip to Rome: Coach Bus Company or Travel Agency?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco

    2003-01-01

    Stimulated by severe teacher shortages, teacher education in the Netherlands is changing toward competence-based, work- based-, and market-oriented programs. A Dutch scenario project was developed in which four scenarios for the future of teacher education emerged. These scenarios were structured by the freedom of schools to define the type of…

  4. Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

  5. Program Simulates Spacecraft Communication Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Land, Kenneth P.; Best, Robert E.; Steel, Douglas J.; Gadd, William C.

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).

  6. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  7. Scenario Writing: A Vision of the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shewach, Dawn L.

    1991-01-01

    The Scenario Writing component of the Future Problem Solving Program calls for students to write a short-short story exploring variables in the future. This article describes the scenario writing process, presents samples of award-winning scenarios, and offers tips for student-authors and for coaches. (JDD)

  8. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  9. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  10. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  11. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    SciTech Connect

    Duinker, Peter N. . E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca; Greig, Lorne A. . E-mail: lgreig@essa.com

    2007-04-15

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development.

  12. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  13. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  14. Changing scenarios in the projection market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, Sweta

    2002-04-01

    The projection market is undergoing many dynamic changes. Front LCD and front-reflective (mainly DLP) technologies compete with each other for most projection applications. The front-projector market is still emerging, with new technologies (such as liquid-crystal-on-silicon, or LCOS), new product categories developing (like scenarios in the projection market by examining the developments over last five years. Also, this paper touches on what to expect in the next five years.

  15. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  16. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  17. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  18. A Scenario Approach to Assessment of New Communications Media.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spangler, Kathleen; And Others

    In a study supported by the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, a research team developed a methodology for illustrating the effective and ineffective uses of audio, video, and computer teleconferencing by developing scenarios for eacb medium. The group first invented a general situation--a conference involving participants with global, regional, and…

  19. Testbeds for Assessing Critical Scenarios in Power Control Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dondossola, Giovanna; Deconinck, Geert; Garrone, Fabrizio; Beitollahi, Hakem

    The paper presents a set of control system scenarios implemented in two testbeds developed in the context of the European Project CRUTIAL - CRitical UTility InfrastructurAL Resilience. The selected scenarios refer to power control systems encompassing information and communication security of SCADA systems for grid teleoperation, impact of attacks on inter-operator communications in power emergency conditions, impact of intentional faults on the secondary and tertiary control in power grids with distributed generators. Two testbeds have been developed for assessing the effect of the attacks and prototyping resilient architectures.

  20. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  1. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  2. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-03-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies.

  3. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  4. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  5. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  6. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  7. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  8. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  9. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  10. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  11. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  12. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

  13. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  14. Soft Selective Sweeps in Complex Demographic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Benjamin A.; Petrov, Dmitri A.; Messer, Philipp W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation from de novo mutation can produce so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive alleles of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that such soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate toward the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such “hardening” of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population-size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short

  15. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  16. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  17. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  18. Cyberbullying: Using Virtual Scenarios to Educate and Raise Awareness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Vivian H.; Burnham, Joy J.; Inman, Christopher T.; Ogorchock, Heather N.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined cyberbullying in three distinct phases to facilitate a multifaceted understanding of cyberbullying. The phases included (a) a quantitative survey, (b) a qualitative focus group, and (c) development of educational scenarios/simulations (within the Second Life virtual environment). Phase III was based on adolescent feedback about…

  19. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  20. The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of Research Libraries, 2010

    2010-01-01

    This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

  1. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  2. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  3. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Van Vuuren, D P; Meinshausen, M; Plattner, G-K; Joos, F; Strassmann, K M; Smith, S J; Wigley, T M L; Raper, S C B; Riahi, K; de la Chesnaye, F; den Elzen, M G J; Fujino, J; Jiang, K; Nakicenovic, N; Paltsev, S; Reilly, J M

    2008-10-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  4. Testing Damage Scenarios. From Historical Earthquakes To Silent Active Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galli, P.; Orsini, G.; Bosi, V.; di Pasquale, G.; Galadini, F.

    Italy is rich with historical scenarios of disruption and death that arrived up to us through the insight descriptions of hundreds of manuscripts, reports, treatises, letters and epigraphs. All these historical data constitute today one of the most powerful data-base of earthquake-induced effects. Moreover, it is now possible to relate many of these earthquakes to geological structures, the seismogenetic behavior of which has been investigated by means of paleoseismological studies. On the basis of these information and of those gathered through the national census (performed on popu- lation and dwellings by ISTAT, Italian Institute of Statistics in 1991) we developed a methodology (FaCES, Fault-Controlled Earthquake Scenario) which reproduce the damage scenario caused by the rupture of a defined fault, providing an estimate of the losses in terms of damages to building and consequences to population. The reliabil- ity of scenarios has been tested by comparing the historical damage distribution of an earthquake with that obtained applying FaCES to the responsible fault. Finally, we hypothesize the scenario related to three historically-silent faults of central Apennines (Mt. Vettore, Mt. Gorzano and Gran Sasso faults), the Holocene activity of which has been recently ascertained though paleoseimological analyses.

  5. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  6. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  7. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  8. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  9. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  10. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions. PMID:27037383

  11. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  12. Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jin; Lee, Dongkon; Kang, Hee Jin; Kim, Soo-Young; Shin, Sung-Chul

    2014-06-01

    Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC) of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

  13. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  14. Planning for "What If" Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    Interval Logic Corporation is a graduate of the Ames Technology Commercialization Center (Ames Research Center's business incubator). The founders are the developers of the Spike Scheduling system, the most successful scheduling technology ever developed for NASA. This software was used to double the operational efficiency of the Hubble Space Telescope. Today the software is called Leverage and used to optimize all levels of semiconductor manufacturing.

  15. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  16. Vibration signal analysis for gear fault diagnosis with various crack progression scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, Omar D.; Rantatalo, Matti; Aidanpää, Jan-Olov; Kumar, Uday

    2013-12-01

    There are different analytical scenarios assumed for crack propagation in the gear tooth root. This paper presents an investigation of the performance of statistical fault detection indicators (the RMS and kurtosis) for three different series of crack propagation scenarios, to compare these scenarios from a fault diagnostics point of view. These scenarios imply different forms of cracks with propagation by a certain step of crack depth. The first scenario assumes a crack being extended through the whole tooth width with a uniform crack depth distribution, while the second scenario assumes the crack being extended through the whole tooth width with a parabolic crack depth distribution, and finally in the third scenario the crack is assumed to be propagating in both the depth and the length directions simultaneously. The time-varying gear mesh stiffness has been investigated using the programme code developed in the present research, and the crack propagation can be modelled with any of the presented crack propagation scenarios. Dynamic simulation has been performed to obtain the residual signals of all the studied cases for each crack propagation scenario. The comparison of the statistical indicators applied to the residual signals shows that in the first scenario the faults are most easily detectable, since in this scenario there is a change in the indicators implying a dramatic decrease in the gear mesh stiffness. The fault detection in the 2nd scenario is more difficult, as the crack propagates with no significant reflection on the mesh stiffness loss. The 3rd proposed scenario should receive more attention in research because it could occur in reality in case of non-uniform load distribution. However, with this scenario it is difficult to perform early fault detection, since there is a very slight change in the statistical indicators at the beginning of the crack propagation. After which, these indicators show a significant change when the crack grows deeper

  17. Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

  18. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  19. Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

    1986-03-01

    A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix.

  20. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Kay, Gillian; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, José F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, André A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Betts, Richard; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila

    2012-05-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and São Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.

  1. Scenario 2000: Intercepting the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keough, Katherine E.

    This monograph (developed along with an accompanying slide presentation) is designed to stimulate the creative thinking of educational policymakers in response to the massive and rapid social upheavals occurring in the economy and at home--and consequently among the students themselves. After a brief introductory overview of these changes and…

  2. Mathematical Giftedness: A Creative Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Yogesh

    2013-01-01

    Identification and development of giftedness is a major task of mathematics teachers worldwide. An early identification of gifted children in mathematics can have a number of benefits, like, providing opportunities for the nourishment of their talent, saving them from burnout, and proper utilisation of mathematical talent in future. As creativity…

  3. The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyons, John V.

    Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach

  4. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  5. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  6. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  7. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  8. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  9. Magnetic Nozzle and Plasma Detachment Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breizman, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Some plasma propulsion concepts rely on a strong magnetic field to guide the plasma flow through the thruster nozzle. The question then arises of how the magnetically controlled plasma can detach from the spacecraft. This talk presents a magnetohydrodynamic detachment scenario in which the plasma stretches the magnetic field lines to infinity [1]. Such a scenario is of particular interest for high-power thrusters. As plasma flows along the magnetic field lines, the originally sub-Alfv'enic flow becomes super-Alfv'enic: this transition is similar to what occurs in the solar wind [2]. In order to describe the detachment quantitatively, the ideal MHD equations have been solved analytically for a plasma flow in a slowly diverging nozzle. The solution exhibits a well-behaved transition from sub- to super- Alfv'enic flow inside the nozzle and a rarefaction wave at the edge of the outgoing flow. The magnetic field in the detached plume is almost entirely due to the plasma currents. It is shown that efficient detachment is feasible if the nozzle is sufficiently long. In order to extend the detachment model beyond the idealizations of analytical theory, a Lagrangian fluid code has been developed to solve steady-stated MHD equations and to optimize nozzle efficiency by adjusting the magnetic coil configuration. This numerical tool enables broad parameter scan with modest computational requirements (single workstation). The code has been benchmarked against the idealized analytical picture of plasma detachment and then used to investigate more realistic nozzle configurations that are not analytically tractable. Most recently, the code has been used to interpret experimental data from the Detachment Demonstration Experiment (DDEX) [3] facility at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. In collabotation with: M. Tushentsov, A. Arefiev, R. Bengtson, J.Meyers (University of Texas at Austin), D. Chavers, C. Dobson, J. Jones (Marshall Space Flight Center), B.Schuettpelz, (University of

  10. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  11. Uterine Sarcoma: The Indian Scenario.

    PubMed

    Sivakumari, S; Rajaraman, R; Subbiah, S

    2015-09-01

    Uterine sarcomas are rare, highly malignant tumours comprising < 1 % of all gynaecologic malignancies. To evaluate clinical presentation, histolopathologic pattern and outcome of uterine sarcomas presenting to a tertiary referral centre over an 8 year period (2004-2012). All histologically proven uterine sarcomas were retrospectively analysed. Clinical presentation, histology, treatment and outcome were analysed. Mean age was 42 years. Predominant histopathology was endometrial stromal sarcoma (n = 13); 9 were low grade, carcinosarcoma (n = 8) and leiomyosarcoma (n = 2). Fourteen patients had Stage I disease, 3 Stage II, 4 Stage III and 2 were Stage IV at presentation. Patients with disease confined to uterus received no adjuvant treatment (61 %). Of these, 11 were endometrial stromal sarcoma (7 were low grade) and 3 were carcinosarcomas. Four patients received adjuvant EBRT following hysterectomy (17 %). Two patients who presented with metastases received palliative chemotherapy. Mean follow-up period was 46 months (0-86 months). Eleven patients (47 %) developed disease recurrence. Seven (30 %) had local recurrence, while 4 (17 %) developed pulmonary metastases. A total of eight patients died and all deaths were within 1 year of recurrence. The only prognostic factor that correlated with survival was the stage of disease at diagnosis. PMID:27217670

  12. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  13. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  14. Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E.L.; McClure, J.D.; Luna, R.E.

    1981-02-01

    Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.

  15. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  16. "Ground Force" Does the Dutch Higher Education Gardens: Three Scenarios Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Westerheijden, Don F.; Huisman, Jeroen; de Boer, Harry

    2004-01-01

    This article shows the changes currently made to higher education in the Netherlands, and what they may mean for its future. Findings from a Delphi study were used to develop three scenarios for Dutch higher education in 2010. The Palatial Garden scenario combined little openness of the system with high governmental involvement, making it more…

  17. Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) Test Case Implementation Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.

    2010-09-27

    Final report for the project. This project was designed to demonstrate the use of the Radiation Detection Scenario Analysis Toolbox (RADSAT) radiation detection transport modeling package (developed in a previous NA-22 project) for specific radiation detection scenarios important to proliferation detection.

  18. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  19. Wildlife Scenario Builder and User's Guide (Version 1.0, Beta Test)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Wildlife <span class=Scenario Builder User's Manual" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> The Wildlife Scenario Builder (WSB) was developed to improve the quality of wildlif...

  20. Work-Based Learning in the UK: Scenarios for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohamud, Mohamed; Jennings, Chris; Rix, Mike; Gold, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Aims to consider scenarios created by work-based learning (WBL) providers in the Tees Valley in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The context of WBL is examined in relation to the notion of the skills gap. The method of scenario development is described. Findings: A key task of WBL is to raise the skills levels of young people. WBL…

  1. Education the Way Ahead? An Evaluation of a Pilot Course on Scenario Writing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Viebahn, Peter; Hilton, Gillian

    2006-01-01

    Scenario writing is a method to promote creative thinking and a proactive approach to dealing with the future. ATEE's Research and Development Centre "Curricula in Teacher Education" has adapted this method for use in teacher education. A Comenius funded course on Scenario writing was run over five days with teachers, teacher--educators, and…

  2. A Scenario-Based Dieting Self-Efficacy Scale: The DIET-SE

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stich, Christine; Knauper, Barbel; Tint, Ami

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses a scenario-based dieting self-efficacy scale, the DIET-SE, developed from dieter's inventory of eating temptations (DIET). The DIET-SE consists of items that describe scenarios of eating temptations for a range of dieting situations, including high-caloric food temptations. Four studies assessed the psychometric properties of…

  3. Will Realistic Fossil Fuel Burning Scenarios Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tans, P. P.; Rutledge, D.

    2012-12-01

    In the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios the driving forces are almost entirely demographic and socio-economic, with scant attention given to potential resource limitations. In a recent study D. Rutledge (2011) shows that in the case of historical coal production, a stable estimate, typically much lower than early estimates of reserves, of total long term production of a region can be obtained well before peak production is reached based on actual production numbers until that point. The estimates are based on produced quantities only, and appear to contradict the assumption of dominant control by socio-economic factors and improvements in technology. Therefore, a projection of climate forcing based on a emissions scenario close to the lowest of the IPCC scenarios may be more realistic. The longevity of the CO2 enhancement in the atmosphere and oceans is thousands of years. The partitioning of the CO2 enhancement between atmosphere and oceans, and thus climate forcing by CO2, is calculated until the year 2500. The fundamental difficulty of CO2 removal strategies is pointed out. The integral of climate forcing until 2500 under a low emissions scenario is still so large that climate change may become an impediment to human development in addition to higher energy costs. D. Rutledge, International J. Coal Geology 85, 23-33 (2011).

  4. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  5. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Meinshausen, Malte; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Joos, Fortunat; Strassmann, Kuno M.; Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, T. M.; Raper, S.; Riahi, Keywan; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Den Elzen, Michel; Fujino, Junicho; Kejun, Jiang; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-10-06

    Estimates on 21st century global mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multi-gas mitigation scenarios now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. By combing emission pathway results from multiple energy-economic models, we show that these mitigation scenarios result in a range of 21st century temperature increase of 0.5 to 4.2°C over 1990 levels as compared to 1.3-7.3 °C for the no-policy cases. About half the range is due to differences in the assumed stringency of the global climate policy and half is due to uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system, specifically, the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity. A minimum warming of about 0.5-2.7°C (avg. 1.3oC) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here - highlighting the need for both emission mitigation and adaptation policies.

  6. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  7. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  8. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  9. Rural female adolescence: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Kumari, R

    1995-01-01

    This article describes the life conditions of female adolescents in India and issues such as health, discrimination in nutrition and literacy, child labor, early marriage, juvenile delinquency, and violence against girls in rural areas of India. Data are obtained from interview samples conducted among 12 villages in north India. Female adolescents suffer from a variety of poverty-ridden village life conditions: caste oppression, lack of facilities, malnutrition, educational backwardness, early marriage, domestic burden, and gender neglect. Girls carry a heavy work burden. Adolescence in rural areas is marked by the onset of puberty and the thrust into adulthood. Girls have no independent authority to control their sexuality or reproduction. Girls are expected to get married and produce children. Control of female sexuality is shifted from the father to the husband. There is a strong push to marry girls soon after menstruation, due to the burden of imposing strict restrictions on female sexuality, the desire to reduce the burden of financial support, and the need to ensure social security for daughters. Girls may not go out alone or stay outside after dark. Many rural parents fear that education and freedom would ruin their daughter. Girls develop a low self-image. Rural villages have poor sanitation, toilet facilities, and drainage systems. Girls are ignorant of health and sex education and lack access to education. The neglect of female children includes malnutrition, sex bias, and early marriage. In 1981, almost 4 out of every 100 girls had to work. 5.527 million girls 5-14 years old were child laborers. Girls are veiled, footbound, circumcised, and burnt by dowry hungry in-laws. Female delinquents are subjected to sexual harassment and sometime to sexual abuse while in custody. Cows are treated better in rural India than women. Gender disparity is caused by the perpetuation of patriarchal masculine values. PMID:12158005

  10. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

    PubMed

    Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2014-03-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. PMID:24374780

  11. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  14. Visual unified modeling language for the composition of scenarios in modeling and simulation systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbert, Michael L.; Swayne, Daniel E.

    2006-05-01

    The Department of Defense uses modeling and simulation systems in many various roles, from research and training to modeling likely outcomes of command decisions. Simulation systems have been increasing in complexity with the increased capability of low-cost computer systems to support these DOD requirements. The demand for scenarios is also increasing, but the complexity of the simulation systems has caused a bottleneck in scenario development due to the limited number of individuals with knowledge of the arcane simulator languages in which these scenarios are written. This research combines the results of previous efforts from the Air Force Institute of Technology in visual modeling languages to create a language that unifies description of entities within a scenario with its behavior using a visual tool that was developed in the course of this research. The resulting language has a grammar and syntax that can be parsed from the visual representation of the scenario. The language is designed so that scenarios can be described in a generic manner, not tied to a specific simulation system, allowing the future development of modules to translate the generic scenario into simulation system specific scenarios.

  15. A coupled stochastic/deterministic model to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides across Canada.

    PubMed

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Farenhorst, Annemieke; McQueen, D A Ross; Cessna, Allan J; Newlands, Nathaniel K

    2014-07-01

    Periodic assessments of the risk of water contamination by pesticides help decision makers improve the sustainability of agricultural management practices. In Canada, when evaluating the risk of water contamination by pesticides, 2 main constraints arise. First, because the area of interest is large, a pesticide transport model with low computational running time is mandatory. Second, some relevant input data for simulations are not known, and most are known only at coarse scale. This study aims to develop a robust methodology to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides across Canada. To circumvent the 2 aforementioned issues, we constructed a stochastic model and coupled it to the 1-dimensional pesticide fate model Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM). To account for input data uncertainty, the stochastic model uses a Monte Carlo approach to generate several pesticide application scenarios and to randomly select PRZM parameter values. One hundred different scenarios were simulated for each of over 2000 regions (Soil Landscapes of Canada [SLC] polygons) for the years 1981 and 2006. Overall, the results indicated that in those regions in which the risk increased from 1981 to 2006, the increase in risk was mainly attributable to the increased area treated by pesticides or an increase in the number of days with runoff. More specifically, this work identifies the areas at higher risk, where further analyses with finer-scale input data should be performed. The model is specific for Canadian data, but the framework could be adapted for other large countries. PMID:24644152

  16. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, ‘Decision robustness’ and ‘Learning success’, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

  17. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  18. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusev, Ye. M.; Nasonova, O. N.; Dzhogan, L. Ya.; Kovalev, E. E.

    2015-06-01

    Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  19. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  20. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  1. Investigating the evolution of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a large number of scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, V. J.; Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-12-01

    The new scenario framework for climate change research includes alternative possible trends for socioeconomic development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs bear some similarities to other scenarios used for global change research, but they also have important differences. Like the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SSPs are defined by a scenario logic consisting of two axes. However, these axes define SSPs with respect to their location in an outcome space for challenges to mitigation and to adaptation rather than by their drivers. Open questions for the SSPs include what their drivers are and how the time dimension could be interpreted with the outcomes space. We present a new analytical approach for addressing both questions by studying large numbers of scenarios produced by an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R. We systematically generated 432 scenarios and used the SSP framework to classify them by typology. We then analyzed them dynamically, tracing their evolution through the SSP challenges space at annual time steps over the period 2010-2090. Through this approach, we found that many scenarios do not remain fixed to a particular SSP domain; they drift from one domain to another. In papers describing the framework for new scenarios, SSPs are envisioned as hypothetical (counter-factual) reference scenarios that remain fixed in one domain over some time period of interest. However, we conclude that it may be important to also research scenarios that shift across SSP domains. This is relevant for another open question, which is what scenarios are important to explore given their consequences. Through a data mining technique, we uncovered prominent drivers for scenarios that shift across SSP domains. Scenarios with different challenges for adaptation and mitigation (that is, mitigation and adaptation challenges that are not co-varying) were found to be the least stable, and the following

  2. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  3. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  4. Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

    PubMed

    Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

    2000-09-01

    In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces. PMID:11066387

  5. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  6. Toward a new satellite gravimetric mission: opportunities and scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biancale, Richard; Seoane, Lucia; Gegout, Pascal; Ramillien, Guillaume; Bruinsma, Sean

    Based on the CNES concept of "MIni-Constellation of Research Orbiters for Mapping the Earth Gravity Anomalies" (MICROMEGA) we have refined simulation scenarios in order to meet the requirements of the E.motion project, a proposal for ESA's Earth Explorer-8 mission. Mainly in view of hydrological applications, the foremost objective of next GRACE-like missions is to provide higher spatial resolution but without loss of precision. That is why we aspire a precision of 1 cm at 200 km resolution (spherical harmonic degree 100). This requires the development of a satellite-to-satellite laser link with sub micrometric precision -which should be technologically mature -coupled with optimal orbit and measurement scenarios. This presentation aims to describe the different numerical simulations achieved in this context and to give an optimal realistic configuration.

  7. Scenario-Based E-Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Kathleen; Colkey, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    As it was initially implemented, e-learning did little other than supply facts and information, offering limited opportunity for interactivity and problem-solving. Designers need to find ways to address past limitations and bring the engagement of classroom training to the web. One method that merits attention is scenario-based learning. The…

  8. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  9. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  10. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  11. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  12. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  13. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  14. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  15. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  16. School Improvement Strategies That Work: Some Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huberman, A. Michael

    1983-01-01

    School improvement strategies are presented in four scenarios: (1) high outcomes from enforced, stabilized use; (2) moderate to high outcomes from high mastery and low settledness; (3) moderate to low outcomes from program blunting or downsizing; and (4) failing, low levels of outcome from indifference and discouragement. (MD)

  17. Merging deterministic and probabilistic approaches to forecast volcanic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peruzzo, E.; Bisconti, L.; Barsanti, M.; Flandoli, F.; Papale, P.

    2009-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex systems largely inaccessible to direct observation. As a consequence, many quantities which are relevant in determining the physical and chemical processes occurring at volcanoes are largely uncertain. On the other hand, the demand for eruption scenario forecast at many hazardous volcanoes in the world is pressing, reflecting into the development and use of increasingly complex physical models and numerical codes. Such codes are capable of accounting for the extremely complex, non-linear behaviour of the volcanic processes, and for the roles of several quantities in determining volcanic scenarios and hazards. However, they often require enormous computer resources and imply long (order of days to weeks) CPU times even on the most advanced parallel computation systems available to-date. As a consequence, they can hardly be used to reasonably cover the spectrum of possible conditions expected at a given volcano. At this purpose, we have started the development of a mixed deterministic-probabilistic approach with the aim of substantially reducing (form order 10000 to 10) the number of simulations needed to adequately represent possible scenarios and their probability of occurrence, corresponding to a given set of probability distributions for the initial/boundary conditions characterizing the system. The core of the problem is to find a "best" discretization of the continuous density function describing the random variables input to the model. This is done through the stochastic quantization theory (Graf and Luschgy, 2000). The application of this theory to volcanic scenario forecast has been tested through both an oversimplified analytical model and a more complex numerical model for magma flow in volcanic conduits, the latter still running in relatively short times to allow comparison with Monte Carlo simulations. The final aim is to define proper strategies and paradigms for application to more complex, time-demanding codes

  18. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  19. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  2. Clinical scenarios: enhancing the skill set of the nurse as a vigilant guardian.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Therese; Belcher, Erin; Sarr, Barbara; Riutta, Emily; Ferrier, Jennifer Douglas; Botten, Mary A

    2010-08-01

    Patient safety is enhanced when nursing staff recognize and respond to subtle changes in a patient's condition. In this quality improvement project, simulated clinical scenarios were conducted with staff nurses on a multi-specialty surgical unit. Scenarios were developed from actual patient situations as well as from calls to the rapid response team. Nurses were given the opportunity to practice assessment, critical thinking, and communication skills. Pre- and post-project surveys were used to assess nurses' perceived level of confidence and skill in handling emergency situations. Post-project survey data showed that nurses perceived that the scenario exercises improved their confidence and skill in managing critical patient situations. In addition, the findings supported the continued use of the scenarios as a teaching strategy. The scenarios have increased nurses' awareness of early signs of patients' conditions deteriorating and have the potential to decrease the number of patient situations that escalate to emergencies. PMID:20666355

  3. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  4. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  5. EXPOSURE FACTORS INTERACTIVE RESOURCE FOR SCENARIOS TOOL (ExpoFIRST): A NEW TOOL FOR ESTIMATING EXPOSURE USING THE 2011 EXPOSURE FACTORS HANDBOOK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessors develop exposure scenarios using facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and professional judgment to develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. The U.S. EPA 2004 Example Exposure Scenarios and 2014 Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples present a limited nu...

  6. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing

  7. Water yield responses to high and low spatial resolution climate change scenarios in the Missouri River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Mark C.; Hotchkiss, Rollin H.; Mearns, Linda O.

    2003-02-01

    Water yield responses to two climate change scenarios of different spatial scales were compared for the Missouri River Basin. A coarse-resolution climate change scenario was created from runs of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization General Circulation Model (CSIRO GCM). The high-resolution climate change scenario was developed using runs of the Regional Climate Model RegCM, for which the GCM provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions. Water yield responses to the high- and low-resolution climate change scenarios were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Basin-wide water yield increased for both GCM and RegCM scenarios but with an overall greater increase for the RegCM scenario. Significant differences in water yields were found between the GCM and RegCM climate scenarios.

  8. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Rob; Moss, Richard H.; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2012-10-01

    A new set of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are described that provide a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways to pair with climate model scenarios developed using the new Representative Concentration Pathways.

  9. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs. PMID:26429363

  10. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  11. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  12. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh, at 142 million people, is the ninth most populous country in the world. There are 13 to 15 lakh cancer patients in Bangladesh, with about two lakh patients newly diagnosed with cancer each year. As an overview, lung cancer and mouth-oropharynx cancer rank as the top two prevalent cancers in males. Other types of cancers are esophagus cancer and stomach cancer. In women, cancer cervix uteri and breast cancer are most prevalent. Other cancer types, which affect women, are mouth and oropharynx cancer, lung cancer, and esophagus cancer. There are around 150 qualified clinical oncologists and 16 pediatric oncologists working in the different parts of the country. Regular cancer treatment is available in 19 hospitals and 465 hospital beds are attached as indoor or day care facilities for chemotherapy in the oncology/radiotherapy departments. There are about 15 linear accelerators, 12 Co-60 teletherapy and 12 brachytherapy units currently available. Approximately, 56 cancer chemotherapeutic agents are obtainable in Bangladesh. Research facilities are available at tertiary care centers and a few multi country collaborative research activities are ongoing. Bangladesh has a unique National Cancer Control Strategy and Plan of Action 2009-2015 formulated with the assistance of WHO with an objective to develop and implement continuum of cancer care through a comprehensive cancer control programe. Preventive measures taken to reduce the incidence of cancer include reduced tobacco smoking, change of dietary habit and reduced food adulteration, ensuring reproductive hygiene, increased physical activity, and reduced occupational hazard. Awareness buildup and media campaign are going on by organizing the general people, opinion leaders of the society, and boy and girl scout. Training of general physicians on cancer warning signs and setup of early cancer detection centers at each medical college and district levels are ongoing. Beside these, some other major cancer

  13. A Global Water Resources Assessment under RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2012-12-01

    A number of reports have been published on climate change impact assessment on global water resources, but earlier studies need to be updated and refined due to three reasons. First, most of earlier studies were based on an old set of IPCC scenarios consists of SRES (green house gas (GHG) emission and socio-economic scenarios) and CMIP3 (climate scenarios consistent with SRES). A new set of IPCC scenarios is being released (Moss et al., 2008) that consists of RCP (GHG emission scenario), SSP (socio-economic scenario), and CMIP5 (climate scenarios consistent with RCP). In order to take the latest achievements in climate modeling, impact assessments should be based on the new scenario. Second, most of earlier studies focused more on the change in water availability (e.g. runoff and discharge), less for change in water use (agricultural, industrial, domestic water use). Because SSP consists of five scenarios delineating substantially different world, water use scenarios should be developed with care reflecting the difference among them. Third, most of earlier studies assessed water availability and use at annual time resolution. This may overlook seasonal and inter-annual shortage of water due to variability in water availability and use. Here we present a novel assessment on global water resources using a global water resources model called H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a,b; 2010). H08 simulates natural water cycle and major human activities, such as water withdrawals and reservoir operation. It estimates water availability and use at daily time interval, which enables to take sub-annual water shortage into account. We first developed water use scenarios for agricultural (irrigation), industrial, and domestic water withdrawal that are consistent with five SSP scenarios. Next, we set up a matrix of scenario combination of RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 for insightful global water resources assessment. Finally we conducted H08 simulation using these scenarios and assessed water

  14. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  15. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  16. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  17. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  18. Exploring central opacity and asymptotic scenarios in elastic hadron scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fagundes, D. A.; Menon, M. J.; Silva, P. V. R. G.

    2016-02-01

    In the absence of a global description of the experimental data on elastic and soft diffractive scattering from the first principles of QCD, model-independent analyses may provide useful phenomenological insights for the development of the theory in the soft sector. With that in mind, we present an empirical study on the energy dependence of the ratio X between the elastic and total cross sections; a quantity related to the evolution of the hadronic central opacity. The dataset comprises all the experimental information available on proton-proton and antiproton-proton scattering in the c.m. energy interval 5 GeV-8 TeV. Generalizing previous works, we discuss four model-independent analytical parameterizations for X, consisting of sigmoid functions composed with elementary functions of the energy and three distinct asymptotic scenarios: either the standard black disk limit or scenarios above or below that limit. Our two main conclusions are the following: (1) although consistent with the experimental data, the black disk does not represent an unique solution; (2) the data reductions favor a semi-transparent scenario, with asymptotic average value for the ratio X bar = 0.30 ± 0.12. In this case, within the uncertainty, the asymptotic regime may already be reached around 1000 TeV. We present a comparative study of the two scenarios, including predictions for the inelastic channel (diffraction dissociation) and the ratio associated with the total cross-section and the elastic slope. Details on the selection of our empirical ansatz for X and physical aspects related to a change of curvature in this quantity at 80-100 GeV, indicating the beginning of a saturation effect, are also presented and discussed.

  19. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  20. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  1. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  2. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  3. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. PMID:22275619

  4. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  5. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  6. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  7. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  8. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  9. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  10. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  11. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  12. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  13. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  14. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  15. Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

  16. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  17. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  18. Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

    2015-11-01

    The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

  19. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  20. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  1. Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre

  2. Posterior urethral valves: the scenario in a developing center.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, S K; Banerjee, S; Basak, D; Basu, A K; Chakravarti, A K; Chatterjee, U S; Haque, J

    2001-01-01

    We have reviewed 233 patients with posterior urethral valves treated in a single center in Calcutta, India, over the last 20 years: 37 were neonates, 75 were between 1 and 12 months, 88 were between 1 and 5 years, and 33 were more than 5 years old when first seen. The clinical presentation and methods employed in diagnosis and assessment are described. Primary endoscopic valve ablation was performed in 140 patients (60%). One or other form of diversion was done in 100 (43%), 93 before and 7 either during or after valve ablation. The short- and long-term results have been studied. Eleven patients died during the initial hospitalization, 3 died subsequently, 15 are in end-stage renal disease, 17 are in poor health, and 18 have been totally lost to follow-up. The remaining 169 have been in good health for periods between 1 and 20 years. While our results of primary valve ablation in low-risk patients with responsible parents are as good as anywhere else in the world, we are concerned at our relatively high diversion rate and relatively poor long-term follow up; the methods being adopted to reduce these problems are discussed. PMID:11294260

  3. Environmental exposure scenarios: development, challenges and possible solutions.

    PubMed

    Ahrens, Andreas; Traas, Theo P

    2007-12-01

    Under the new REACH system, companies importing, producing and marketing chemical substances will be obliged to register the single substances and to carry out a safety assessment for all identified uses during the life cycle of the substance. This duty will apply to about 10,000 existing substances in the EU market exceeding an annual production or import volume of 10 t per company. If the substance is already known to be dangerous or turns out to be dangerous(1) during the hazard assessment, the registrant is obliged to carry out an exposure assessment and a risk characterisation for all identified uses. The goal of the safety assessment is to define the conditions of use that allow for adequate control of risk with regard to health and safety at the work place, consumer safety and protection of the environment. Once the registrant has established and documented these conditions in the Chemicals Safety Report (CSR), that information is to be communicated down the supply chain by means of the Extended Safety Data Sheet (eSDS). The ultimate aim of the new legislation is to establish duties and mechanisms that systematically prevent or limit exposure to dangerous industrial chemicals. The current paper explains this concept with regard to environmental exposure and highlights the challenges and possible solutions. PMID:18000528

  4. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  5. Scenario Educational Software: Design and Development of Discovery Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keegan, Mark

    This book shows how and why the computer is so well suited to producing discovery learning environments. An examination of the literature outlines four basic modes of instruction: didactic, Socratic, inquiry, and discovery. Research from the fields of education, psychology, and physiology is presented to demonstrate the many strengths of…

  6. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  7. Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzilacou, Dionyssia; Kallis, Giorgos; Mexa, Alexandra; Coccosis, Harris; Svoronou, Eleni

    2007-06-01

    This article reports on a scenario workshop (SW) for water resources management at the island of Naxos, Greece. The workshop was part of a European research project studying the advantages and limitations of different participatory methods in the context of the Water Framework Directive. It involved policy makers, scientists, business representatives, and citizens from different parts of the island. On the first day, participants worked to envision a sustainable development future for the island and its water resources. Discussion was inspired by four alternative water development scenarios prepared by the organizers. Participants' vision statements emphasized a diversified development path and balanced water solutions. On the second day, participants worked to plan the actions needed to realize their common vision. The SW turned out to be a good method to initiate a multipartner dialogue, to include new stakeholders in the water policy debate, and to a certain extent, to promote learning between participants. On the other hand, it did not appear well suited to resolve conflicts and aid decisions in the face of scientific complexity and uncertainty. SW seems to be a good method for the "upstream," preparatory, capacity-building tasks of a planning process but not for the production of substantive decision outputs such as consensual agreements or action plans. The Naxos experiment also raised the centrality of framing, participant selection, and facilitation in participatory processes.

  8. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  9. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  10. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  11. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  12. Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, Mohammed; Burn, Donald H.

    2006-06-01

    An improved weather-generating model that allows nearest neighbour resampling with perturbation of the historic data is applied to generate weather data based upon plausible climate scenarios. The intent is to create an ensemble of climate scenarios that can be used for the assessment of the vulnerability of a watershed to extreme events, including both floods and droughts. Analysis of the results clearly indicates that the model adequately simulated extreme unprecedented events for five different climate change scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the increasing precipitation scenario is identified as the critical scenario for the assessment of risks associated with the occurrence of floods in the basin. The increasing temperature scenario appears to be the critical scenario for the analysis of droughts in the basin. Frequency analysis was carried out to determine the impact of potential climatic change on the occurrence of storm depths of any given magnitude. A promising potential application of the model is in rainfall-runoff modelling where the storms depths could be related to the occurrence of extreme events in the basin. The proposed model, in conjunction with a rainfall-runoff model, has the potential of providing valuable aid in developing efficient management strategies for a watershed. The model produces spatially correlated data, which is crucial for accurate runoff estimation. Although the model is applied to the Upper Thames River Basin in the Canadian province of Ontario, it is generic and transportable to any other watershed with minimal changes.

  13. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  14. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  15. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  16. Blood loss estimation in epistaxis scenarios.

    PubMed

    Beer, H L; Duvvi, S; Webb, C J; Tandon, S

    2005-01-01

    Thirty-two members of staff from the Ear, Nose and Throat Department at Warrington General Hospital were asked to estimate blood loss in commonly encountered epistaxis scenarios. Results showed that once the measured volume was above 100 ml, visual estimation became grossly inaccurate. Comparison of medical and non-medical staff showed under-estimation was more marked in the non-medical group. Comparison of doctors versus nurses showed no difference in estimation, and no difference was found between grades of staff. PMID:15807956

  17. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  18. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, R.; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-11-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein’s theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  19. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-06-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  20. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  1. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  2. A ΛCDM bounce scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

    2015-03-01

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  3. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  5. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  6. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  7. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  8. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  9. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  10. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  11. Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

    2007-01-01

    The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

  12. NASA High Speed Research Program, Emissions Scenarios Committee report of meetings on September 26, 1991 and January 9, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.

    1992-03-23

    An important step in the process of assessing the environmental effects of possible future High-Speed Civil Transports (HSCTs) is the definition of scenarios for the emissions from a fleet of such aircraft. These scenarios are then used in numerical models of the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere to determine potential environmental effects, including concerns about changes in ozone and in climate. The Emissions Scenarios Committee was formed to provide a forum for meeting the combined needs of the atmospheric science community, the aircraft industry, NASA and the federal government in undertaking the development of scenarios for such assessments.

  13. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  14. High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.

  15. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  16. Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heydinger, Richard B.

    A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background…

  17. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  18. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  19. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  20. Sustainable Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Auerbach, Raymond

    1994-01-01

    Discusses South African national development priorities, sustainable development, and the future of agriculture and presents three scenarios of possible national action: production for sale and export, household food security, and conservation of natural resources. (MKR)

  1. A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

  2. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

    2014-01-01

    The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

  3. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  4. What Did I Do? A Scenario-Based Program To Assist Specific Learning Disabled Adolescents in Understanding Legal Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDougall, Donna M.

    This practicum was designed to train eight adolescents with specific learning disabilities (SLD) about their legal rights and responsibilities, through a scenario-based program presented in the classroom as part of a transition program. The practicum involved the development of 22 scenarios, a pretest and posttest, and discussions and role-playing…

  5. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  6. Control, Elimination, and Eradication of River Blindness: Scenarios, Timelines, and Ivermectin Treatment Needs in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Eun; Remme, Jan H. F.; Steinmann, Peter; Stolk, Wilma A.; Roungou, Jean-Baptiste; Tediosi, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    River blindness (onchocerciasis) causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013–2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.15 billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges. PMID:25860569

  7. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

  8. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and

  9. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

  10. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  11. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  12. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  13. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    PubMed Central

    Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

    2008-01-01

    Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

  14. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  15. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  16. New cosmic accelerating scenario without dark energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, J. A. S.; Basilakos, S.; Costa, F. E. M.

    2012-11-01

    We propose an alternative, nonsingular, cosmic scenario based on gravitationally induced particle production. The model is an attempt to evade the coincidence and cosmological constant problems of the standard model (ΛCDM) and also to connect the early and late time accelerating stages of the Universe. Our space-time emerges from a pure initial de Sitter stage thereby providing a natural solution to the horizon problem. Subsequently, due to an instability provoked by the production of massless particles, the Universe evolves smoothly to the standard radiation dominated era thereby ending the production of radiation as required by the conformal invariance. Next, the radiation becomes subdominant with the Universe entering in the cold dark matter dominated era. Finally, the negative pressure associated with the creation of cold dark matter (CCDM model) particles accelerates the expansion and drives the Universe to a final de Sitter stage. The late time cosmic expansion history of the CCDM model is exactly like in the standard ΛCDM model; however, there is no dark energy. The model evolves between two limiting (early and late time) de Sitter regimes. All the stages are also discussed in terms of a scalar field description. This complete scenario is fully determined by two extreme energy densities, or equivalently, the associated de Sitter Hubble scales connected by ρI/ρf=(HI/Hf)2˜10122, a result that has no correlation with the cosmological constant problem. We also study the linear growth of matter perturbations at the final accelerating stage. It is found that the CCDM growth index can be written as a function of the Λ growth index, γΛ≃6/11. In this framework, we also compare the observed growth rate of clustering with that predicted by the current CCDM model. Performing a χ2 statistical test we show that the CCDM model provides growth rates that match sufficiently well with the observed growth rate of structure.

  17. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  18. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. PMID:16010760

  19. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  20. Modelling of pulsed and steady-state DEMO scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baruzzo, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Fable, E.; Garzotti, L.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Kemp, R.; King, D. B.; Schneider, M.; Stankiewicz, R.; Stępniewski, W.; Vincenzi, P.; Ward, D.; Zagórski, R.

    2015-07-01

    Scenario modelling for the demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO) has been carried out using a variety of simulation codes. Two DEMO concepts have been analysed: a pulsed tokamak, characterized by rather conventional physics and technology assumptions (DEMO1) and a steady-state tokamak, with moderately advanced physics and technology assumptions (DEMO2). Sensitivity to impurity concentrations, radiation, and heat transport models has been investigated. For DEMO2, the impact of current driven non-inductively by neutral beams has been studied by full Monte Carlo simulations of the fast ion distribution. The results obtained are a part of a more extensive research and development (R&D) effort carried out in the EU in order to develop a viable option for a DEMO reactor, to be adopted after ITER for fusion energy research.