Science.gov

Sample records for przm scenario development

  1. Comparison of leaching predictions based on PRZM3.12, LEACHP, and RZWQM98 using standard scenario modeling.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Scott H; Estes, Tammara L

    2007-06-27

    Regulatory agencies in the NAFTA region use ground water leaching models to help determine risks to ground water resources. The results of three models for leaching predictions are compared using a standard soil and weather scenario currently used by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NYDEC) to simulate the Riverhead soil found on Long Island, New York. The three models, PRZM3.12, LEACHP, and RZWQM98, were configured to simulate the behavior of two example molecules in corn, turfgrass, and bare soil. For the bare soil simulations, LEACHP and RZWQM98 predicted similar peak concentrations and timing of peak concentration. Depending on the dissipation rate of the molecule, PRZM3.12 predicted similar to reduced peak concentrations due to the delayed timing to reach the peak concentration. For the corn and turfgrass simulations, peak concentrations and timing to reach peak concentrations varied between the models due to differences in how each simulates plant growth and evapotranspiration. PMID:17547417

  2. Development and evaluation of GIS-based ArcPRZM-3 system for spatial modeling of groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbar, Tahir Ali; Lin, Henry; DeGroote, John

    2011-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop and evaluate a GIS-based modeling system called ArcPRZM-3 for spatial modeling of pesticide leaching potential from soil surface towards groundwater. The ArcPRZM-3 was developed by coupling a commonly used FORTRAN-based Pesticide Root Zone Model version 3 (PRZM-3) with user-friendly input and output interfaces through links to GIS using customized programming. A Visual PRZM-3 interface simplifies the entry of model inputs and links to the databases of crops, soils, and pesticides. The ArcPRZM-3 produces user-friendly outputs from the PRZM-3 batch simulations in the form of tables, charts, and maps. The Visual PRZM-3 can be used to run a single simulation for site-specific studies or simultaneous multiple simulations for spatial distributed modeling. The ArcPRZM-3 was applied to simulate maximum dissolved bentazon concentration at 0.75 m soil depth for a period of 2 years. These simulation results were used to develop a health risk map for Woodruff County, Arkansas, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Lifetime Health Advisory Level (USEPA-LHA) of bentazon in drinking water. The ArcPRZM-3 was evaluated by comparing the bentazon detection data from monitoring wells from the same area with the predicted bentazon health risk map. The results showed that 100% of the wells where bentazon was detected were within the high risk category based on the ArcPRZM-3 predictions. However, uncertainty in the ArcPRZM-3 model and the timing of groundwater well monitoring could both complicate the interpretations of the ArcPRZM-3 simulation results.

  3. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  4. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  5. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  6. PRZM-3, A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PESTICIDE AND NITROGEN FATE IN THE CROP ROOT AND UNSATURATED SOIL ZONES: USER'S MANUAL FOR RELEASE 3.12.2

    EPA Science Inventory

    This publication contains documentation for the PRZM-3 model. PRZM-3 is the most recent version of a modeling system that links two subordinate models, PRZM and VADOFT, in order to predict pesticide transport and transformation down through the crop root and unsaturated soil zone...

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  8. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  9. Simulation of carbonfuran and hexazinone movement into groundwater in central Florida using PRZM (Pesticide) Root Zone Model)

    SciTech Connect

    Neary, D.G.; Bush, P.B.; Smith, C.S.; Carsel, R.F.; Phillips, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    PRZM (Pesticide Root Zone Model) was developed to predict movement of pesticides within the plant root zone of soils and below to a depth of 7 m. The model, developed for surface-applied or soil incorporated pesticides, consists of 1) a hydrology component for calculating removal of precipitation by runoff, evapotranspiration, and crop interception, and 2) a chemical transport component for calculating uptake by plants, volatolization, decay, leaching, dispersion, concentration in runoff, retardation, soil solution and solid phase concentrations. Simulations were run for carbofuran, a moderately soluble, highly toxic carbamate insecticide, and hexazinone, a highly soluble, low toxicity triazine herbicide. Simulations and validation field experiments were done on forest sites with deep Typic Quartzipsamment soils overlying the Floridan Aquifer in Central Florida. Implications on use of predicting groundwater contamination and the risks of pesticide use are discussed.

  10. USER MANUAL FOR EXPRESS, THE EXAMS-PRZM EXPOSURE SIMULATION SHELL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Fate and Effects Division (EFED) of EPA's Office of Pesticide Programs(OPP) uses a suite of ORD simulation models for the exposure analysis portion of regulatory risk assessments. These models (PRZM, EXAMS, AgDisp) are complex, process-based simulation codes tha...

  11. USERS MANUAL FOR THE PESTICIDE ROOT ZONE MODEL (PRZM). RELEASE 1

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) simulates the vertical movement of pesticides in the unsaturated soil, within and below the plant root zone, and extending to the water table using generally available input data that are reasonable in spatial and temporal requirements. The mo...

  12. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  13. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  14. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  15. PRZM-2, A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PESTICIDE FATE IN THE CROP ROOT AND UNSATURATED SOIL ZONES: USERS MANUAL FOR RELEASE 2.0

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRZM-2 links two subordinate models--PRZM and VADOFT--in order to predict pesticide transport and transformation down through the crop root and unsaturated zones. RZM is a one-dimensional, finite difference model that accounts for pesticide fate in the crop root zone. his release...

  16. STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. vailable techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultat...

  17. An evaluation of the performance of the soil temperature simulation algorithms used in the PRZM model.

    PubMed

    Tsiros, I X; Dimopoulos, I F

    2007-04-01

    Soil temperature simulation is an important component in environmental modeling since it is involved in several aspects of pollutant transport and fate. This paper deals with the performance of the soil temperature simulation algorithms of the well-known environmental model PRZM. Model results are compared and evaluated based on the basis of its ability to predict in situ measured soil temperature profiles in an experimental plot during a 3-year monitoring study. The evaluation of the performance is based on linear regression statistics and typical model statistical errors such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and the normalized objective function (NOF). Results show that the model required minimal calibration to match the observed response of the system. Values of the determination coefficient R(2) were found to be in all cases around the value of 0.98 indicating a very good agreement between measured and simulated data. Values of the RMSE were found to be in the range of 1.2 to 1.4 degrees C, 1.1 to 1.4 degrees C, 0.9 to 1.1 degrees C, and 0.8 to 1.1 degrees C, for the examined 2, 5, 10 and 20 cm soil depths, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to investigate the influence of various factors involved in the energy balance equation at the ground surface on the soil temperature profiles. The results showed that the model was able to represent important processes affecting the soil temperature regime such as the combined effect of the heat transfer by convection between the ground surface and the atmosphere and the latent heat flux due to soil water evaporation. PMID:17454373

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Current scenario of drug development for leishmaniasis.

    PubMed

    Croft, Simon L; Seifert, Karin; Yardley, Vanessa

    2006-03-01

    Although three new drugs or drug formulations, liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome), miltefosine and paromomycin should be available for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) within the next year, they all suffer from limitations of either cost, specific toxicities or parenteral administration. As part of research to identify better treatments for VL and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), alternative and potentially cheaper formulations of amphotericin B, alklyphosphocholines other than miltefosine and improved formulations of paromomycin for CL have been identified. Other drugs or compounds that have demonstrated activity in experimental rodent models of infection include licochalcone derivatives, quinoline derivatives, bisphosphonates and a maesabalide; further chemistry based upon these leads is warranted. The process for discovery and development of new antileishmanials would also benefit from improved models, for example, transfected parasites, and non invasive methods of measuring parasite load in rodent models of infection. PMID:16778319

  20. Future space development scenarios: Environmental considerations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tangum, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The formation of positive attitudes and values concerning the environment of space, as the basis for assuming a wise stewardship role, is becoming increasingly important as many nations begin their journeys into space. A strong emphasis should be placed on fostering an international space environmental ethics. The object of environmental assessment and management in space should be to define what interplanetary regulatory procedures are needed to avoid unnecessary environmental damage and to monitor the effectiveness of such avoidance. The first requirement for research is to narrow the field of concern to areas where there could be an increased scale of development in space in the immediate future. Research needs to be focused on methodologies for defining the environmental systems involved (e.g., the lunar surface) and then recognizing key variables in the system that are fragile and need to be respected. Criteria for environmental quality should emerge which identify, in the case of lunar surface, how much mining activity can be safely undertaken and what quantity of exhaust gases can be released over a given period of time. Only then will humans be most able to evaluate the likely consequences of ventures into space.

  1. Development of a Dutch Drainpipe exposure scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos; van der Linden, Ton

    2010-05-01

    In the new Dutch pesticide authorisation procedure, the leaching of pesticides to surface waters will be evaluated. The 90th percentile of the peak concentrations in all Dutch ditches will be used for the exposure assessment of aquatic organisms The peak concentration in surface waters is primarily affected by fast transfer routes (amongst others by macropores). For this reason, we developed a macropore version of the pesticide leaching model PEARL. The macropore version of PEARL describes transport of pesticides through the soil matrix and through two preferential flow domains, i.e. a bypass domain and an internal catchment domain. The drainpipe exposure assessment will be done for a single field site. We selected the Andelst field experiment (Scorza Júnior et al., 2004) for this purpose, because at this site sufficient data is available to parameterise and test the model. To assess the effect of weather variability on drainpipe concentration, the model is run for a 20-years period. Hydrological boundary conditions for the 20-years period were taken from nearby weather stations and ground water observation wells. Application of PEARL to this field site showed that the model adequately describes the peak concentration and the later decline of the concentration for two different pesticides. The exposure assessment at the Andelst field site results in 20 annual peak concentrations, that need to be compared with the 90th percentile of the peak concentration in all Dutch ditches, so we performed simulations with a spatially-distributed version of PEARL. This assessment resulted in 20 times n concentrations, with n the number of locations. A contour diagram was used to assess which weather year corresponds with the 90th percentile of all 20 times n peak concentrations. The X-coordinate in the contour diagram corresponds with the percentile of the cumulative distribution of the predicted concentrations due to spatial variability that is obtained for a median weather

  2. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  3. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  4. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  5. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  6. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  7. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  8. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  9. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  10. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  11. Development of computerized scenarios for wildlife exposure to priority substances

    SciTech Connect

    Brownlee, L.J.; McPherson, S.M.; Norton, M.R.; Ward, D.R.; Lloyd, K.M.

    1995-12-31

    A computerized model has been developed to estimate wildlife exposure in the Canadian environment to substances through inhalation and ingestion of food, water and soil. This Windows application was developed in Visual Basic using Microsoft Access databases and designed to make the evaluation process consistent, transparent and efficient. Bird, mammal, amphibian and reptile species were selected on the basis of food guild, body size, habitat and distribution in Canada. Intake rates were estimated using allometric equations or measured intake rates when available. Ingestion rates were estimated from free-living metabolic rates and dietary composition. With the information, the authors will develop the exposure scenarios required for assessments of risk to wildlife from priority substances listed in the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.

  12. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  13. The Emergence of the Worldship (II): A Development Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, S.

    The worldship concept rests upon three broad areas of technology development: long-endurance life-support of an isolated human community, in-space infrastructure construction, and high-energy space propulsion. This paper presents a possible scenario for the future growth of a worldship capability in terms of a convergence of these three key technology areas. It is argued that progress in propulsion is likely to be faster than in developing permanent habitation in space, and that therefore the first worldships will be launched after a plateau in vehicle speeds has been reached. Such a plateau is likely to be enforced, not by technological limits, but by economic limits to the energy and power that can be invested in a single vehicle or fleet of vehicles.

  14. Developing clinical scenarios from a European perspective: successes and challenges.

    PubMed

    Wiseman, Allison; Horton, Khim

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents developmental work involving students from the University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland (n=9), University of Surrey, England (n=8) and University of Ljubljana and University of Maribor, Slovenia (n=5) participating in the Erasmus Intensive Programme. The Erasmus programme offers a two week 'Summer School' in the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Maribor, Slovenia. Using a participatory approach, facilitators from both the UCD and Surrey engaged with students from all of the universities to develop scenarios for simulated learning experiences, in the care of older people, for utilisation on an e learning facility and within the simulated clinical learning environment. Students developed key transferable skills in learning, such as information literacy, cultural diversity, team working, communication, and clinical skills acquisition whilst exploring differences in healthcare delivery in other European countries. PMID:21315498

  15. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  16. Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1995-01-19

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.

  17. Energy development scenarios and water demands and supplies: an overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilpatrick, F.A.

    1977-01-01

    On the basis of average mean annual flows, ample water exists in the upper Missouri River basin for energy development. The lack of storage and diversion works upstream as well as State compacts preclude the ready use of this surplus water. These surplus flows are impounded in mainstream reservoirs on the Missouri downstream from coal mining areas but could be transported back at some expense for use in Wyoming and North Dakota. There are limited water supplies available for the development of coal and oil shale industries in the upper Colorado River Basin. Fortunately oil shale mining, retorting and reclamation do not require as much water as coal conversion; in-situ oil shale retorting would seem to be particularly desirable in the light of reduced water consumption. Existing patterns of energy production, transport, and conversion suggest that more of the coal to be mined out West is apt to be transmitted to existing load centers rather than converted to electricity or gas in the water-short West. Scenarios of development of the West 's fossil fuels may be overestimating the need for water since they have assumed that major conversion industries would develop in the West. Transport of coal to existing users will require all means of coal movement including unit trains, barges, and coal slurry pipelines. The latter is considered more desirable than the development of conversion industries in the West when overall water consumption is considered. (Woodard-USGS)

  18. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  19. Generic exposure scenarios: their development, application, and interpretation under REACH.

    PubMed

    Money, Chris; Margary, Alison; Noij, Dook; Hommes, Kees

    2011-06-01

    The European Union Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation (EC 1907/2006) places significant new obligations on the manufacturers or importers (M/Is) of chemicals in Europe. It also places new responsibilities on downstream users (DUs) of these chemicals i.e. those that purchase and use chemical products. In particular, for registered classified substances, the M/I is expected to communicate how any substance can be safely used without risk to man or the environment. This communication is in the form of an exposure scenario (ES), which is included in an Annex to the REACH extended safety data sheet. DUs then have certain obligations relating to adopting the control conditions described in the ES. The REACH Technical Guidance Documents lay down the expectations for the process of risk assessment that M/Is should adopt when developing ESs. But with many thousands of chemicals in daily commerce, it is also necessary to ensure that what is communicated to DUs not only meets the requirements of REACH but is also understandable to these groups, as well as being consistent across different chemical suppliers and supply chains. In cooperation with relevant DU groups, the European solvents industry has developed generic approaches for describing how solvents are commonly used, in order that these can subsequently be used as the basis for REACH registrations and related safety data sheet communications on health risk control. The utility of these approaches (termed 'generic exposure scenarios') is acknowledged under REACH and they are now publicly available for use both by M/Is and DUs. PMID:21551289

  20. The development of mental scenario building and episodic foresight.

    PubMed

    Suddendorf, Thomas; Redshaw, Jonathan

    2013-08-01

    Episodic foresight is the future-directed counterpart of episodic memory. It is a sophisticated, potentially uniquely human capacity, with tremendous adaptive consequences. Here we review what is currently known about its development through early childhood. We tackle this from two distinct perspectives. First, we present the first systematic evaluation of the development of purported components of mental scenario building as highlighted by a theater metaphor: the stage, the playwright, the set, the actors, the director, the executive producer, and the broadcaster. We find that, although there are diverse developmental trajectories, by 4 years of age children have acquired the basic cognitive components required to mentally construct specific future events. Second, we examine recent attempts to test children's episodic foresight more directly and find that results are in line with those examining the development of required components. This is not to say that children younger than four have no inkling of upcoming events or that older children have nothing left to learn about constructing the future. Episodic foresight, and its neurocognitive foundations, continues to develop throughout childhood. PMID:23855564

  1. Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

  2. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  4. Peritoneal dialysis in the developing world: the Mexican scenario.

    PubMed

    Treviño-Becerra, Alejandro; Maimone, Maria Antonieta Schettino

    2002-09-01

    In the developing countries it is not possible to determine the total amount of money spent in the treatment of chronic diseases, and the practice of renal replacement therapies faces many obstacles. In Mexico, the introduction of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis and continuous cycling peritoneal dialysis (CCPD) achieved very good results. Unfortunately, renal disease still affected as much as 95% of chronic renal failure patients and it became a disaster with an annual mortality rate higher than 60%. This was known as the Mexican Model which failed in establishing peritoneal dialysis as the only procedure for treating patients. In order to avoid a similar scenario with the 2 replacement therapies, we created the Official Norm for hemodialysis, and now we are experimenting with an increase from 5% to 20% of hemodialysis patients who are receiving therapy, principally in private units that attend Social Security patients. In addition, the government has established a Council for Transplantation that acts as a regulatory board. In other words, we are in the process of making chronic renal diseases a priority within the National Program. PMID:12197926

  5. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  7. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  8. Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alinier, Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

  9. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  10. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-15

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  11. Cyberbullying Prevention: The Development of Virtual Scenarios for Counselors in Middle Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Vivian H.; Burnham, Joy J.

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop meaningful and engaging virtual cyberbullying scenarios in digital environments that reflect the educational needs of today's adolescents. In order to inform and script these scenarios, a threestage study was implemented with middle schools. This paper describes how data collected in each stage informed the…

  12. Designing, Developing and Implementing a Software Tool for Scenario Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Geoff; Taylor, Mathew; Stewart, Terry; Blackburn, Greg; Jinks, Audrey; Razdar, Bahareh; Holmes, Paul; Marastoni, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The pedagogical value of problem-based and inquiry-based learning activities has led to increased use of this approach in many courses. While scenarios or case studies were initially presented to learners as text-based material, the development of modern software technology provides the opportunity to deliver scenarios as e-learning modules,…

  13. Teaching Scenario Development for Concurrent Engineering Practices Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aguiar, Adriana F. S.; de Oliveira, Cristiano B. M.; Rozenfeld, Henrique; Omokawa, Rogerio

    In modern society, a company's competitive advantage is directly related to its capacity for product development. This paper describes the use of a Model Integrated Factory to simulate product development business processes for the education of engineers. (WRM)

  14. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference

  15. Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

    2016-07-01

    The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521.

  16. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  17. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    SciTech Connect

    GALSON,D.A.; SWIFT,PETER N.; ANDERSON,D. RICHARD; BENNETT,D.G.

    1998-09-23

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs.

  18. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  19. Ground Systems Development Environment (GSDE) interface requirements analysis: Operations scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Church, Victor E.; Phillips, John

    1991-01-01

    This report is a preliminary assessment of the functional and data interface requirements to the link between the GSDE GS/SPF (Amdahl) and the Space Station Control Center (SSCC) and Space Station Training Facility (SSTF) Integration, Verification, and Test Environments (IVTE's). These interfaces will be involved in ground software development of both the control center and the simulation and training systems. Our understanding of the configuration management (CM) interface and the expected functional characteristics of the Amdahl-IVTE interface is described. A set of assumptions and questions that need to be considered and resolved in order to complete the interface functional and data requirements definitions are presented. A listing of information items defined to describe software configuration items in the GSDE CM system is included. It also includes listings of standard reports of CM information and of CM-related tools in the GSDE.

  20. Blast Loading Experiments of Developed Surrogate Models for TBI Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, Matthew; Son, Steven

    2009-06-01

    This study aims to characterize the interaction of explosive blast waves through simulated anatomical systems. We have developed physical models and a systematic approach for testing traumatic brain injury (TBI) mechanisms and occurrences. A simplified series of models consisting of spherical PMMA shells followed by SLA prototyped skulls housing synthetic gelatins as brain simulants have been utilized. A series of experiments was conducted with the simple geometries to compare the sensitivity of the system response to mechanical properties of the simulants under high strain-rate explosive blasts. Small explosive charges were directed at the models to produce a realistic blast wave in a scaled laboratory setting. Blast profiles were measured and analyzed to compare system response severity. High-speed shadowgraph imaging captured blast wave interaction with the head model while particle tracking captured internal response for displacement and strain correlation. The results suggest amplification of shock waves inside the head due to impedance mismatches. Results from the strain correlations added to the theory of internal shearing between tissues.

  1. The question of the realizability of the Landau scenario for the development of turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.

    2009-02-01

    We suggest a phenomenological model for the development of turbulence in the form of the nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation perturbed by nonconservative disturbances. Combining analytic and numerical methods, we establish that the transition to turbulence in this equation can follow both the Landau and the Landau-Sell scenarios. As is known, the first scenario is related to a cascade of bifurcations of stable invariant tori of increasing dimensions. The other scenario is related to a chaotic attractor whose Lyapunov dimension increases indefinitely under variation of a certain control parameter.

  2. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. ); Phifer, M.A. . Dept. of Civil Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  3. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  4. Development and validation of videotaped scenarios: a method for targeting specific participant groups.

    PubMed

    Noel, Nora E; Maisto, Stephen A; Johnson, James D; Jackson, Lee A; Goings, Christopher D; Hagman, Brett T

    2008-04-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  5. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  6. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  7. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  8. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Steam Intrusion from Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  9. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-03-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable.

  10. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  11. Long-term prospects for developments in space: A scenario approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, W. M.; Kahn, H. D.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term plans for future NASA programs are reported, and some of the following topics are discussed in detail: (1) systematic formulation of space scenarios; (2) the basic international context; (3) potential 21st century space developments; (4) space vehicle developments; and (5) future exploration.

  12. Scenario-development to Analyze Future Fresh Water Availability in the Yellow River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Congli; van de Giesen, Nick

    2010-05-01

    The Yellow River Delta is one of the youngest alluvial plains in the world. Nowadays, fresh water availability is under stress due to several reasons. First, there is the rapidly increasing upstream water demand along the Yellow River. Second, climate change causes shifts in precipitation, temperature and evaporation. Third, land use/ land cover change has a large impact on the surface runoff and groundwater recharge in the district. Finally, other anthropogenic interventions such as irrigation, inter-basin water transfer, and artificial reservoirs affect fresh water availability directly. Scenario-development is needed to examine consequences of possible developments and to improve management through better anticipation. Therefore, possible changes in all four sets of stressors (water demand, climate change, land use, anthropogenic interventions) are systematically catalogued. To assess future fresh water availability, we present and compare two methods to link the stressors. The first way is the "storyline method", as used by, for instance, the IPCC. This method is concerned with consistency within a given scenario. Typically, this method results in a small set of equally likely scenarios, running from best to worst. The second method is complete Bayesian integration. In this method, all different development pathways are taken into account. In a simple example, we may have two stressors with only high or law values, say, high or low upstream water demand and high and low irrigation development. In this case we would have four possible pathways leading to four different scenarios. Weights, or priors, are given to each branch of each path. Covariances between stressors will be accounted for as well. The likelihoods of each scenario are then calculated by simple integrating the likelihood along each pathway. The results of both methods are compared. Key words: Fresh water availability; Scenario development; Storyline Method; Bayesian Integration

  13. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  14. Mexico's Sustainable Development: ¿Is it Possible, an Alternative Scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uribe, Medardo Tapia

    2009-07-01

    Mexico's track of development needs to be different in order to aspire to sustainable development. This chapter examines Mexico's current socioeconomic situation with respect to the rest of Latin American countries in the last few years and the forecast for 2009. Then it provides empirical data of the deterioration of Mexican natural resources in order to explore an alternative scenario as presented in the Mexican debate of Mexico's sustainable development.

  15. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  16. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  17. Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Luce, T C

    2004-10-18

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.

  18. Development of Burning Plasma and Advanced Scenarios in the DIII-D Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Luce, T C

    2004-12-01

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q {approx} 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque.

  19. Impact of alternative small-wind systems standards-development scenarios. Volume II. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Silberglitt, R.; Boone, K.; Greer, B.; Hamester, H.L.; Robertson, K.; Steigelmann, W. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The potential impacts of a number of alternative scenarios for the development of standards for small wind energy conversion systems (SWECS) were analyzed. Because of the embryonic state of the SWECS industry, standards can play a particularly important role in affecting the course of SWECS commercialization. Past experience indicates that in order to be effective, such standards should be developed as the result of a consensus process, assimilating input from all concerned parties. The current status of efforts to develop voluntary consensus standards for SWECS is examined and the opinions of various affected groups and individuals with regard to SWECS standards are assessed. A methodology is presented for determining the impacts of six different types of SWECS standards written by four separate groups, or actors. As the result of this impact assessment, and the assigning of weights to the impacts of each standard, an optimum scenario is presented. The optimum scenario represents an effort to maximize the contribution of each actor in order to produce broad-based consensus standards. Finally, an implementation plan is suggested for the optimum scenario.

  20. Impact of alternative small wind systems standards development scenarios. Volume I. Executive summary

    SciTech Connect

    Silberglitt, R.; Boone, K.; Greer, B.; Hamester, H.L.; Robertson, K.; Steigelmann, W. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The potential impacts of a number of alternative scenarios for the development of standards for small wind energy conversion systems (SWECS) are analyzed. Because of the embryonic state of the SWECS industry, standards can play a particularly important role in affecting the course of SWECS commercialization. Past experience indicates that in order to be effective, such standards should be developed as the result of a consensus process, assimilating input from all concerned parties. This document examines the current status of efforts to develop voluntary consensus standards for SWECS and assesses the opinions of various affected groups and individuals with regard to SWECS standards. It presents a methodology for determining the impacts of six different types of SWECS standards written by four separate groups, or actors. As the result of this impact assessment, and the assigning of weights to the impacts of each standard, an optimum scenario is presented. The optimum scenario represents an effort to maximize the contribution of each actor in order to produce broad-based consensus standards. Finally, an implementation plan is suggested for the optimum scenario.

  1. Development of Depletion Code Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Propagation in Scenario Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krivtchik, Guillaume; Coquelet-Pascal, Christine; Blaise, Patrick; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Freynet, David

    2014-06-01

    The result of transition scenario studies, which enable the comparison of different options of the reactor fleet evolution and management of the future fuel cycle materials, allow to perform technical and economic feasibility studies. The COSI code is developed by CEA and used to perform scenario calculations. It allows to model any fuel type, reactor fleet, fuel facility, and permits the tracking of U, Pu, minor actinides and fission products nuclides on a large time scale. COSI is coupled with the CESAR code which performs the depletion calculations based on one-group cross-section libraries and nuclear data. Different types of uncertainties have an impact on scenario studies: nuclear data and scenario assumptions. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their impact on the major scenario results. The methodology adopted to propagate these uncertainties throughout the scenario calculations is a stochastic approach. Considering the amount of inputs to be sampled in order to perform a stochastic calculation of the propagated uncertainty, it appears necessary to reduce the calculation time. Given that evolution calculations represent approximately 95% of the total scenario simulation time, an optimization can be done, with the development and implementation of a surrogate models library of CESAR in COSI. The input parameters of CESAR are sampled with URANIE, the CEA uncertainty platform, and for every sample, the isotopic composition after evolution evaluated with CESAR is stored. Then statistical analysis of the input and output tables allow to model the behavior of CESAR on each CESAR library, i.e. building a surrogate model. Several quality tests are performed on each surrogate model to insure the prediction power is satisfying. Afterward, a new routine implemented in COSI reads these surrogate models and using them in replacement of CESAR calculations. A preliminary study of the calculation time gain shows that the use of surrogate models allows stochastic

  2. Typical pedestrian accident scenarios for the development of autonomous emergency braking test protocols.

    PubMed

    Lenard, James; Badea-Romero, Alexandro; Danton, Russell

    2014-12-01

    An increasing proportion of new vehicles are being fitted with autonomous emergency braking systems. It is difficult for consumers to judge the effectiveness of these safety systems for individual models unless their performance is evaluated through track testing under controlled conditions. This paper aimed to contribute to the development of relevant test conditions by describing typical circumstances of pedestrian accidents. Cluster analysis was applied to two large British databases and both highlighted an urban scenario in daylight and fine weather where a small pedestrian walks across the road, especially from the near kerb, in clear view of a driver who is travelling straight ahead. For each dataset a main test configuration was defined to represent the conditions of the most common accident scenario along with test variations to reflect the characteristics of less common accident scenarios. Some of the variations pertaining to less common accident circumstances or to a minority of casualties in these scenarios were proposed as optional or supplementary test elements for an outstanding performance rating. Many considerations are incorporated into the final design and implementation of an actual testing regime, such as cost and the state of development of technology; only the representation of accident data lay within the scope of this paper. It would be desirable to ascertain the wider representativeness of the results by analysing accident data from other countries in a similar manner. PMID:25180785

  3. Scenario planning for community development in Vietnam: a new tool for integrated health approaches?

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Vi; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Wiese, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Background Like many countries in Southeast Asia, Vietnam's rapid population and economic growth has met challenges in infrastructure development, especially sanitation in rural areas. Objective As an entry point, we developed scenario planning as an action–research tool in a peri-urban community to identify first steps towards improving their complex sanitation problem and to, systemically, address emerging/re-emerging infectious diseases, as these are commonly linked to unsafe water and inadequate sanitation conditions. As an integrated approach, the process of constructing scenarios allowed us to work across sectors and stakeholders to incorporate this knowledge into a common vision. Design We conducted focus group discussions to identify and rank driving forces, orally constructed scenarios for the most uncertain drivers, discussed scenario implications and options, and examined the overall process for usefulness and sustainability. During a one-month scoping phase and in between focus group meetings, we carried out household visits which helped us understand the context of data and gather feedback from participants outside of the formal data collection process. Recorded results from these activities were used to develop subsequent tools. Results and Conclusions The research process gave us insights into how to adapt the scenario planning tool to identify alternative options. This involved choosing boundary partners, negotiating priorities, drawing out participant learning through self-assessment of our process (a prerequisite for changing mental models and thus achieving outcomes), and understanding how conveyed messages may reinforce the status quo. These insights showed the importance of examining research results beyond outputs and outcomes, namely through process. PMID:25138530

  4. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. PMID:25108719

  5. Developing leadership skills in critical care nurses: a case scenario--part two.

    PubMed

    Pereira, Asha; Williams, Susan; MacConnell, Grace

    2005-01-01

    During a recent CACCN board meeting, directors were challenged with developing an approach to a difficult case scenario. In a situation in which a group of nurses have angered some of the other nurses who work in the same unit, the directors were asked to identify core problems and suggest possible solutions and potential barriers to this problem. The perception that patient care is hampered, poor morale and job satisfaction as well as the lack of leadership and poor communication were identified as the core problems in the scenario that was presented. A number of possible solutions and the associated strengths and weaknesses, as well as the barriers to implementing the solutions were identified. In summary, critical care nurses must continue to advocate and lead the way toward strong leadership, modeling of appropriate behaviour and effective communication--all of which contribute to stronger team development and, ultimately, result in better, safer patient care. PMID:16447530

  6. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, E.J.

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  7. Integrated Modeling & Development of Emission Scenarios for Methane and Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Jain, Atul K.

    2005-09-30

    This report outlines main accomplishments on the development of Emission inventories and Scenarios for Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases (CO, VOCs, NOx) and methane supported by Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy. This research produced 3 journal articles, 1 book chapter, and 4 research articles/abstracts in conference proceedings. In addition, this grant supported two PhD students and one undergraduate student at UIUC.

  8. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    PubMed

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development. PMID:23408100

  9. Developing Multi-Lake Regulation Plans for the Great Lakes through Multi-Scenario Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.; Asadzadeh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water levels in the Great Lakes- St. Lawrence freshwater system (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario as well as the St. Lawrence River) impact a variety of stakeholder groups such as hydropower producers, the shipping industry, shoreline property owners and recreational boaters. Although the system is currently managed by control structures at two locations (Lake Superior and Lake Ontario outflows are controlled), there is concern that future extreme climates will generate water supply sequences to the system that will substantially increase the frequency and persistence of extreme water levels imposing millions of dollars of losses to Canadian and American economies. This work partially summarizes a study under The International Upper Great Lakes Study (International Joint Commission) to provide an exploratory conceptual analysis of how and to what extent new control structures in the system could be used to minimize the risks posed by extreme water levels outside of the historic range. In this study, two new hypothetical control structures were investigated to regulate Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie outflows. Multiple regulation plans were developed to operate the hypothetical structures in the St. Clair and/or Niagara rivers in combination with the two existing control structures in the St. Marys and St. Lawrence Rivers. The regulation plans were defined by multi-lake rule curves whose parameters were determined through a simulation-optimization procedure. As there is a high level of uncertainty in future climate, multiple water supply sequences, each 70 years long, representing different future climate scenarios were considered. A multi-scenario based optimization formulation was developed aiming to keep the water levels within the historical range and to minimize and evenly distribute extreme water levels across the system. The dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm was applied to optimize the multi-scenario based formulation. As the

  10. 78 FR 72534 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-03

    ... annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\1\\ Public Law 111-203, 124 Stat. 1376 (2010). \\2\\ 77 FR... development and distribution of future stress test scenarios. \\4\\ 77 FR 69553 (Nov. 20, 2012). B. Summary of... will apply to develop and distribute those scenarios for covered banks. \\1\\ 77 FR 62417 (Oct. 15,...

  11. Development of useful climate scenarios at regional scales using GCM outputs

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, P.C.

    1997-12-31

    If climate changes are expected, their regional impacts are of special interest. Up to now (and in the near future) global climate models have been unable to deliver applicable results to describe the climate situation within a selected region (IPCC, 1995). That is why the description of the climate development in such an area must be realised by another possibility of creating meteorological data. Of importance besides is that the consistency in space and time and also between all meteorological parameters is not infracted. The used method proceeds on the assumption that the large scale changes of several meteorological parameters for a defined region calculated by a GCM can be regarded as correct as regards their tendencies. Based on such an assumption, long-term observed time series are prepared by statistical methods in such a way that they reflect the GCM-calculated changes by a scenario. The advantage of this method lies in the reduction of the defects of the GCM to a minimum. Simultaneously the consistency between the meteorological parameters can be ensured. A disadvantage is the missing physical connection between the GCM results and the given scenario. This method was applied successfully to develop several climate scenarios for a limited area (state Brandenburg) in Germany.

  12. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF HYBRID OPERATION SCENARIOS FOR BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect

    LUCE,TC; WADE,MR; FERRON,JR; HYATT,AW; POLITZER,PA; SIPS,ACC

    2003-08-01

    OAK-B135 The basic parameters of proposed burning plasma experiments such as ITER and FIRE have been chosen based on analysis of multi-machine databases of confinement, stability, and divertor operation. given these specifications, it is of interest to run discharges in present-day machines such as DIII-D to verify the design basis and evaluate the margin available to achieve the mission goals. it is especially important to operate discharges which are stationary with respect to the current relaxation time scale ({tau}{sub R}) since it is well-known that higher performance can be achieved transiently. Attention has been focused on validating the baseline scenario for diverted machines--ELMing H-mode discharges with q{sub 95} = 3 with sawteeth. However, there is also interest in the ITER program to assess the feasibility of operating the tokamak in a mode to maximize the neutron fluence for the purpose of testing the design of various components critical to the nuclear fuel cycle and energy conversion systems in a fusion power plant. It was originally envisioned that these discharges would be intermediate between an inductive burn (baseline) scenario and a fully noninductive (steady state) scenario; therefore, this type of discharge has become known as a hybrid scenario. In the course of investigating these hybrid scenarios in DIII-D, two key results have been obtained. First, stationary discharges with q{sub 95} > 4 have been obtained which project to Q{sub fus} {approx} 10 in ITER. The projected duration of these discharges in ITER when using the full inductive flux capability is > 4000 s. (The significant engineering issues of site heat capacity, activation, and tritium consumption are beyond the scope of this work). Second, utilizing the same plasma initiation techniques as developed for the hybrid scenario, discharges at q{sub 95} = 3.2 project to near ignition in ITER, even with reduced parameters. This indicates the ITER design has significant performance

  13. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  14. Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  15. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

    PubMed Central

    Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  16. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    PubMed

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  17. Developing a measure of interpretation bias for depressed mood: An ambiguous scenarios test

    PubMed Central

    Berna, Chantal; Lang, Tamara J.; Goodwin, Guy M.; Holmes, Emily A.

    2011-01-01

    The tendency to interpret ambiguous everyday situations in a relatively negative manner (negative interpretation bias) is central to cognitive models of depression. Limited tools are available to measure this bias, either experimentally or in the clinic. This study aimed to develop a pragmatic interpretation bias measure using an ambiguous scenarios test relevant to depressed mood (the AST-D).1 In Study 1, after a pilot phase (N = 53), the AST-D was presented via a web-based survey (N = 208). Participants imagined and rated each AST-D ambiguous scenario. As predicted, higher dysphoric mood was associated with lower pleasantness ratings (more negative bias), independent of mental imagery measures. In Study 2, self-report ratings were compared with objective ratings of participants’ imagined outcomes of the ambiguous scenarios (N = 41). Data were collected in the experimental context of a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging scanner. Consistent with subjective bias scores, independent judges rated more sentences as negatively valenced for the high versus low dysphoric group. Overall, results suggest the potential utility of the AST-D in assessing interpretation bias associated with depressed mood. PMID:21822348

  18. The Value of Scenario Development in Environmental and Socio-economic Policy Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M. I.; Gupta, H. V.

    2007-12-01

    Increasing scarcity, growing demand, and a burdened water supply have generated concerns about the sustainability of the southwest's regional water infrastructure. This necessitates the adoption of improved water management practices and policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Scenarios introduce an innovative aspect to strategic long-term planning that is currently absent from current decision- making and resource management activities. For the purpose of assessing future water resources management and sustainability needs within the region, the formal approach to scenario development adopted by scientists and researchers at the University of Arizona's SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) center is adopted. Through workshops and meetings with regional and state stakeholders, several dominant themes of interest for water resources management emerged. A historical analysis of several key variables associated with these major themes provided insight on the future uncertainty in projections and assumptions adopted in early examples of future planning in the southwest. Analysis of these key variables indicates that historical assumptions and projections in the dimensions of the environment, climate, and socio-economics lacked the dynamic planning foresight that tools such as scenarios can provide.

  19. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  20. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  1. Developing Authentic Online Problem-Based Learning Case Scenarios for Teachers of Students with Visual Impairments in the United Kingdom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLinden, Mike; McCall, Steve; Hinton, Danielle; Weston, Annette

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the development of online problem-based learning case scenarios for use in a distance education program for teachers of students with visual impairments in the United Kingdom. Following participation in two case scenarios, a cohort of teachers provided feedback. This feedback was analyzed in relation to the relevant…

  2. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  3. Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do

  4. Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

  5. Learning to deal with crisis in the home: Part 1--developing community simulation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Caroline E; Dickson, Caroline; Lawson, Bill; Kelly, Helena; McMillan, Ailsa

    2015-11-01

    Contemporary health care is increasingly being located in the community. From the evident changes in demographics and general health, it can be derived that the people whom student nurses care for are likely to have multiple comorbidities and be vulnerable to clinical deterioration. These nurses are required to develop a range of transferrable skills to meet the demands of the population. The challenge for educators of preregistration student nurses is to develop educational strategies to prepare them with the skills, knowledge, and confidence necessary to recognise and manage deterioration appropriately in any context. This article is the first of two papers discussing the stimulus, design, and delivery of an educational innovation that focuses on the recognition and management of the deteriorating patient. The article explores current literature about community-focused simulation highlighting the potential learning opportunities resulting from contextualising simulation scenarios specific to the community setting. PMID:26551382

  6. Overview of ASDEX Upgrade results—development of integrated operating scenarios for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günter, S.; Angioni, C.; Apostoliceanu, M.; Atanasiu, C.; Balden, M.; Becker, G.; Becker, W.; Behler, K.; Behringer, K.; Bergmann, A.; Bilato, R.; Bizyukov, I.; Bobkov, V.; Bolzonella, T.; Borba, D.; Borrass, K.; Brambilla, M.; Braun, F.; Buhler, A.; Carlson, A.; Chankin, A.; Chen, J.; Chen, Y.; Cirant, S.; Conway, G.; Coster, D.; Dannert, T.; Dimova, K.; Drube, R.; Dux, R.; Eich, T.; Engelhardt, K.; Fahrbach, H.-U.; Fantz, U.; Fattorini, L.; Foley, M.; Franzen, P.; Fuchs, J. C.; Gafert, J.; Gal, K.; Gantenbein, G.; García Muñoz, M.; Gehre, O.; Geier, A.; Giannone, L.; Gruber, O.; Haas, G.; Hartmann, D.; Heger, B.; Heinemann, B.; Herrmann, A.; Hobirk, J.; Hohenöcker, H.; Horton, L.; Huart, M.; Igochine, V.; Jacchia, A.; Jakobi, M.; Jenko, F.; Kallenbach, A.; Kálvin, S.; Kardaun, O.; Kaufmann, M.; Keller, A.; Kendl, A.; Kick, M.; Kim, J.-W.; Kirov, K.; Klose, S.; Kochergov, R.; Kocsis, G.; Kollotzek, H.; Konz, C.; Kraus, W.; Krieger, K.; Kurki-Suonio, T.; Kurzan, B.; Lackner, K.; Lang, P. T.; Lauber, P.; Laux, M.; Leuterer, F.; Likonen, J.; Lohs, A.; Lorenz, A.; Lorenzini, R.; Lyssoivan, A.; Maggi, C.; Maier, H.; Mank, K.; Manini, A.; Manso, M.-E.; Mantica, P.; Maraschek, M.; Martin, P.; Mast, K. F.; Mayer, M.; McCarthy, P.; Meyer, H.; Meisel, D.; Meister, H.; Menmuir, S.; Meo, F.; Merkel, P.; Merkel, R.; Merkl, D.; Mertens, V.; Monaco, F.; Mück, A.; Müller, H. W.; Münich, M.; Murmann, H.; Na, Y.-S.; Narayanan, R.; Neu, G.; Neu, R.; Neuhauser, J.; Nishijima, D.; Nishimura, Y.; Noterdaeme, J.-M.; Nunes, I.; Pacco-Düchs, M.; Pautasso, G.; Peeters, A. G.; Pereverzev, G.; Pinches, S.; Poli, E.; Posthumus-Wolfrum, E.; Pütterich, T.; Pugno, R.; Quigley, E.; Radivojevic, I.; Raupp, G.; Reich, M.; Riedl, R.; Ribeiro, T.; Rohde, V.; Roth, J.; Ryter, F.; Saarelma, S.; Sandmann, W.; Santos, J.; Schall, G.; Schilling, H.-B.; Schirmer, J.; Schneider, W.; Schramm, G.; Schweinzer, J.; Schweizer, S.; Scott, B.; Seidel, U.; Serra, F.; Sihler, C.; Silva, A.; Sips, A.; Speth, E.; Stäbler, A.; Steuer, K.-H.; Stober, J.; Streibl, B.; Strintzi, D.; Strumberger, E.; Suttrop, W.; Tardini, G.; Tichmann, C.; Treutterer, W.; Troppmann, M.; Tsalas, M.; Urano, H.; Varela, P.; Wagner, D.; Wesner, F.; Würsching, E.; Ye, M. Y.; Yoon, S.-W.; Yu, Q.; Zaniol, B.; Zasche, D.; Zehetbauer, T.; Zehrfeld, H.-P.; Zilker, M.; Zohm, H.

    2005-10-01

    Significant progress has been made on ASDEX Upgrade during the last two years in the basic understanding of transport, in the extension of the improved H-mode in parameter space and towards an integrated operating scenario and in the development of control methods for major performance limiting instabilities. The important features were the understanding of particle transport and the control of impurity accumulation based on it, the satisfactory operation with predominantly tungsten-clad walls, the improved H-mode operation over density ranges and for temperature ratios covering (non-simultaneously) the ITER requirements on ν*, n/nGW and Te/Ti, the ELM frequency control by pellet injection and the optimization of NTM suppression by DC-ECCD through variation of the launching angle. From these experiments an integrated scenario has emerged which extrapolates to a 50% improvement in n T τ or a 30% reduction of the required current when compared with the ITER base-line assumptions, with moderately peaked electron and controllable high-Z density profiles.

  7. Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; McCoy, Tim D.; Guan, Qingfeng

    2015-01-01

    Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

  8. Long Pulse High Performance Plasma Scenario Development for the National Spherical Torus Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Kessel, C.E.; Bell, R.E.; Bell, M.G.; Gates, D.A.; Harvey, R.W.

    2006-01-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment [Ono et al., Nucl. Fusion, 44, 452 (2004)] is targeting long pulse high performance, noninductive sustained operations at low aspect ratio, and the demonstration of nonsolenoidal startup and current rampup. The modeling of these plasmas provides a framework for experimental planning and identifies the tools to access these regimes. Simulations based on neutral beam injection (NBI)-heated plasmas are made to understand the impact of various modifications and identify the requirements for (1) high elongation and triangularity, (2) density control to optimize the current drive, (3) plasma rotation and/or feedback stabilization to operate above the no-wall limit, and (4) electron Bernstein waves (EBW) for off-axis heating/current drive (H/CD). Integrated scenarios are constructed to provide the transport evolution and H/CD source modeling, supported by rf and stability analyses. Important factors include the energy confinement, Zeff, early heating/H mode, broadening of the NBI-driven current profile, and maintaining q(0) and qmin>1.0. Simulations show that noninductive sustained plasmas can be reached at IP=800 kA, BT=0.5 T, 2.5, N5, 15%, fNI=92%, and q(0)>1.0 with NBI H/CD, density control, and similar global energy confinement to experiments. The noninductive sustained high plasmas can be reached at IP=1.0 MA, BT=0.35 T, 2.5, N9, 43%, fNI=100%, and q(0)>1.5 with NBI H/CD and 3.0 MW of EBW H/CD, density control, and 25% higher global energy confinement than experiments. A scenario for nonsolenoidal plasma current rampup is developed using high harmonic fast wave H/CD in the early low IP and low Te phase, followed by NBI H/CD to continue the current ramp, reaching a maximum of 480 kA after 3.4 s.

  9. The role of pharmacists in developing countries: the current scenario in Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Azhar, Saira; Hassali, Mohamed Azmi; Ibrahim, Mohamed Izham Mohamed; Ahmad, Maqsood; Masood, Imran; Shafie, Asrul Akmal

    2009-01-01

    During the past few years, the pharmacy profession has expanded significantly in terms of professional services delivery and now has been recognized as an important profession in the multidisciplinary provision of health care. In contrast to the situation in developed countries, pharmacists in developing countries are still underutilized and their role as health care professionals is not deemed important by either the community or other health care providers. The aim of this paper is to highlight the role of pharmacists in developing countries, particularly in Pakistan. The paper draws on the literature related to the socioeconomic and health status of Pakistan's population, along with background on the pharmacy profession in the country in the context of the current directions of health care. The paper highlights the current scenario and portrays the pharmacy profession in Pakistan. It concludes that although the pharmacy profession in Pakistan is continuously evolving, the health care system of Pakistan has yet to recognize the pharmacist's role. This lack of recognition is due to the limited interaction of pharmacists with the public. Pharmacists in Pakistan are concerned about their present professional role in the health care system. The main problem they are facing is the shortage of pharmacists in pharmacies. Moreover, their services are focused towards management more than towards customers. For these reasons, the pharmacist's role as a health care professional is not familiar to the public. PMID:19594916

  10. Scenarios of animal waste production and fertilizer use and associated ammonia emission for the developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwman, A. F.; Van Der Hoek, K. W.

    Livestock production and the use of synthetic fertilizer are responsible for about half of the global emission of NH 3. Depending on the animal category between 10 and 36% of the N in animal excreta is lost as NH 3. The current annual NH 3 emission in developing countries of 15 million ton N accounts for 2/3 of the global emission from animal excreta. In addition, 7.2 million tons NH 3N of synthetic N fertilizers are lost as NH 3 in developing countries. This is 80% of the global NH 3 emission from synthetic fertilizer's use. Along with human population increase and economic growth, livestock production in developing countries may even increase by a factor of 3 between now and 2025. The net result of rapid increase of livestock production combined with higher efficiency is an increase in NH 3 emissions of only 60% from 15 to 24 million tons NH 3N between 1990 and 2025 in developing countries. Livestock production is an important consumer of feedstuffs, mainly cereals, thereby inducing additional demand for synthetic fertilizers. Despite the projected major increase of synthetic fertilizer use from 42 to 106 million ton N between 1990 and 2025, the NH 3 loss in developing countries may decrease if a shift towards other fertilizer types, that are less vulnerable to NH 3 volatilization, is realized. According to the scenario, the total emission of NH 3 associated with food production in developing countries will increase from 22 to 30 million ton N yr -1 between 1990 and 2025. Although the NH 3 emission increases more slowly than food production, in particular, animal production may show geographic concentration in certain regions, which may lead to high local emission densities and associated environmental problems.

  11. Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Catherine C.; Tanenbaum, Jason B.; Lee, Yi-Ching; Fisher, Donald L.; Mayhew, Daniel R.; Winston, Flaura K.

    2013-01-01

    Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no consensus set of scenarios and skills to assess whether novice drivers are likely to crash or to assess the effects of novice driver training programs on the likelihood of a crash. The authors propose that a much narrower, common set of scenarios can be used to focus on the high-risk crashes of young drivers. Until recently, it was not possible to identify the detailed set of scenarios that were specific to high-risk crashes. However, an integration of police crash reports from previous research, a number of critical simulator studies, and a nationally representative database of serious teen crashes (the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey) now make identification of these scenarios possible. In this paper, the authors propose this novel approach and discuss how to create a common set of simulated scenarios and skills to assess novice driver performance and the effects of training and interventions as they relate to high-risk crashes. PMID:23543947

  12. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  13. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  14. Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musulin, Mike, II

    The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

  15. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision

  16. Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

  17. Exploration of steady-state scenarios for the Fusion Development Facility (FDF)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, V. S.; Garofalo, A. M.; Stambaugh, R. D.; Choi, M.; Kinsey, J. E.; Lao, L. L.; Snyder, P. B.; St. John, H. E.; Turnbull, A. D.

    2011-10-01

    A Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) has to operate at 105 times longer duration than that of present tokamak discharges. The scalability of plasma sustainment to such a long time is an issue that needs to be resolved by scientific understanding. We carry out steady-state (SS) scenario development of the FDF (a candidate for FNSF-AT) using an iterative process toward a self-consistent solution via alternating temperature profiles and current profile evolution. The temperature profile evolves according to a physics-based transport model GLF23. SS requires large off-axis current drive (CD). To achieve this with no NBI is highly challenging. It however simplifies tritium containment, increases area for tritium breeding, and avoids costly negative-ion NBI technology. We find that with ECH/ECCD only, too much power is required. A SS baseline equilibrium is found by adding LHCD: Qfus ~ 4 , H98 y 2 ~ 1 . 2 , fBS ~ 70 %, Pfus ~ 260 MW, PEC = 35 MW, PLH = 21 MW. The GATO ideal MHD code finds the equilibrium stable to n = 1 internal kink at κ = 2 . 3 . Work supported by General Atomics internal funds.

  18. Off-axis Neutral Beam Current Drive for Advanced Scenario Development in DIII-D

    SciTech Connect

    Murakami, M; Park, J; Petty, C; Luce, T; Heidbrink, W; Osborne, T; Wade, M; Austin, M; Brooks, N; Budny, R; Challis, C; DeBoo, J; deGrassie, J; Ferron, J; Gohil, P; Hobirk, J; Holcomb, C; Hollmann, E; Hong, R; Hyatt, A; Lohr, J; Lanctot, M; Makowski, M; McCune, D; Politzer, P; Prater, R; John, H S; Suzuki, T; West, W; Unterberg, E; Van Zeeland, M; Yu, J

    2008-10-13

    Modification of the two existing DIII-D neutral beam lines is proposed to allow vertical steering to provide off-axis neutral beam current drive (NBCD) as far off-axis as half the plasma radius. New calculations indicate very good current drive with good localization off-axis as long as the toroidal magnetic field, B{sub T}, and the plasma current, I{sub p}, are in the same direction (for a beam steered downward). The effects of helicity can be large: e.g., ITER off-axis NBCD can be increased by more than 20% if the B{sub T} direction is reversed. This prediction has been tested by an off-axis NBCD experiment using reduced size plasmas that are vertically shifted with the existing NBI on DIII-D. The existence of off-axis NBCD is evident in sawtooth and internal inductance behavior. By shifting the plasma upward or downward, or by changing the sign of the toroidal field, measured off-axis NBCD profiles, determined from MSE data, are consistent with predicted differences (40%-45%) arising from the NBI orientation with respect to the magnetic field lines. Modification of the DIII-D NB system will strongly support scenario development for ITER and future tokamaks as well as providing flexible scientific tools for understanding transport, energetic particles and heating and current drive.

  19. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  20. The Scenario-Based Engineering Process (SEP): a user-centered approach for the development of health care systems.

    PubMed

    Harbison, K; Kelly, J; Burnell, L; Silva, J

    1995-01-01

    The Scenario-based Engineering Process (SEP) is a user-focused methodology for large and complex system design. This process supports new application development from requirements analysis with domain models to component selection, design and modification, implementation, integration, and archival placement. It is built upon object-oriented methodologies, domain modeling strategies, and scenario-based techniques to provide an analysis process for mapping application requirements to available components. We are using SEP in the health care applications that we are developing. The process has already achieved success in the manufacturing and military domains and is being adopted by many organizations. SEP should prove viable in any domain containing scenarios that can be decomposed into tasks. PMID:8591321

  1. The implications of renewable energy research and development: Policy scenario analysis with experience and learning effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobos, Peter Holmes

    This dissertation analyzes the current and potential future costs of renewable energy technology from an institutional perspective. The central hypothesis is that reliable technology cost forecasting can be achieved through standard and modified experience curves implemented in a dynamic simulation model. Additionally, drawing upon region-specific institutional lessons highlights the role of market, social, and political institutions throughout an economy. Socio-political influences and government policy pathways drive resource allocation decisions that may be predominately influenced by factors other than those considered in a traditional market-driven, mechanistic approach. Learning in economic systems as a research topic is an attractive complement to the notion of institutional pathways. The economic implications of learning by doing, as first outlined by Arrow (1962), highlight decreasing production costs as individuals, or more generally the firm, become more familiar with a production process. The standard approach in the literature has been to employ a common experience curve where cumulative production is the only independent variable affecting costs. This dissertation develops a two factor experience curve, adding research, development and demonstration (RD&D) expenditures as a second variable. To illustrate the concept in the context of energy planning, two factor experience curves are developed for wind energy technology and solar photovoltaic (PV) modules under different assumptions on learning rates for cumulative capacity and the knowledge stock (a function of past RD&D efforts). Additionally, a one factor experience curve and cost trajectory scenarios are developed for concentrated solar power and geothermal energy technology, respectively. Cost forecasts are then developed for all four of these technologies in a dynamic simulation model. Combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing with the fields of organizational learning and

  2. Use of multitemporal InSAR data to develop geohazard scenarios for Bandung, Western Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvi, Stefano; Tolomei, Cristiano; Duro, Javier; Pezzo, Giuseppe; Koudogbo, Fifamè

    2015-04-01

    The Greater Bandung metropolitan area is the second largest urban area in Indonesia, with a population of 8.6 million. It is subject to a variety of geohazards: volcanic hazards from seven active volcanoes within a radius of 50 km; high flood hazards, seismic hazard due to crustal active faults, the best known being the 30-km long Lembang fault, 10 km North of the city centre; subsidence hazards due to strong aquifer depletion; landslide hazard in the surrounding high country. In the framework of the FP7 RASOR project, multitemporal satellite SAR data have been processed over Bandung, Western Java. We used the SBAS InSAR technique (Berardino et al., 2002) to process two ALOS-1 datasets, to investigate the various sources of surface deformation acting in the area in the period 2008-2011. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) has also been applied to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy. The PSI processing technique considers a system of points that reflect the radar signal from the satellite continuously through the time. It makes use of differential interferometric phase measurements to generate long term terrain deformation and digital surface model maps. The GlobalSARTM algorithms developed by Altamira Information are applied to COSMO-SkyMed data acquired to measure ground motion over the area of interest. Strong ground displacements (up to 7 cm/yr) due to groundwater abstraction have been measured in the Bandung basin. The identification of long wavelength signals from tectonic sources is difficult due to the limited InSAR coherence outside of the urban environment. Limited deformation is observed also in the Tangkuban Perahu volcano to the north. The spatial and temporal distribution of the ground motion is important supporting information for the generation of long term subsidence and flood hazard scenarios.

  3. Pulling Together: Keeping Track of Pedagogy, Design and Evaluation Through the Development of Scenarios--A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Josie; Evans, Diane

    2005-01-01

    This case study describes the multipurpose use of scenarios in a large multinational research project (MOBIlearn) whose aims are to design and develop a pedagogically sound mobile learning environment. Maintaining effective communication and design focus in large consortia is a well-known problem (see Carroll, 2000), and we describe the role of…

  4. Development and validation of a model for tritium accumulation by a freshwater bivalve using the IAEA EMRAS scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Miyamoto, K.; Inoue, Y.; Takeda, H.; Yanagisawa, K.; Fuma, S.; Ishii, N.; Kuroda, N.; Yankovich, T.; Kim, S. B.; Davis, P.

    2008-07-15

    A six-compartment metabolic model for tritium accumulation by bivalves was developed and validated using two observed data sets supplied in an international IAEA program for validation of environmental models, EMRAS (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety, 2003-2007). The data observed were presented in scenarios for model prediction of temporal change of HTO and OBT concentrations in Barnes mussels (Elliptio complanata). In the Uptake Scenario, mussels were transplanted from a site with background tritium concentrations into a lake, which has historically received tritium inputs over time from up-gradient waste management areas. Another data set was presented in the Depuration Scenario for model prediction of the temporal decrease in HTO and OBT concentrations in the mussels following transplantation from the lake into another lake with significantly lower tritium levels. The model simulation was able to reproduce the observation that the amount of hydrogen taken from sediment was very small compared with that taken from lake water. (authors)

  5. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios: A Method for Targeting Specific Participant Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A., Jr.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2008-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression…

  6. MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1992-01-01

    This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  7. MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  8. Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

    2016-02-01

    Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

  9. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones account for over 60% of the loss of life, and over 90% of total impacts, from natural disasters. Both observed trends and global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme events is increasing, and will continue to increase as a result of climate change. Among planners and policy-makers at both national and international levels there is thus concern that this rise in extreme events will lead to greater losses in the future. Since low levels of development are associated with greater numbers of people killed and needing emergency assistance from natural disasters, the concern is most pronounced for least developed countries. If, however, these countries make substantial improvements in their levels of human development, as leading forecasters suggest may be the case over the coming decades, then their vulnerability to extreme events may fall. In this study, we examine the potential combined effects of increased extreme event frequency and improved levels of human development, to generate scenarios of risk levels into the second half of the century. It is the African continent for which these results may be the most relevant, since it is widely viewed as most vulnerable to increased risks from climate change; we focus on the particular country of Mozambique, which has experienced high losses from droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones in recent decades, and stands out as being among the most vulnerable in Africa. To assess the change in risk levels from the present until 2060, we pull together three pieces of analysis. The first is a statistical analysis of the losses from 1990-2007 from climate-related disasters, using national level data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations. From this analysis, we establish statistical relationships between several drivers of vulnerability—including country size

  10. Development of Scientific Simulation 3D Full Wave ICRF Code for Stellarators and Heating/CD Scenarios Development

    SciTech Connect

    Vdovin V.L.

    2005-08-15

    In this report we describe theory and 3D full wave code description for the wave excitation, propagation and absorption in 3-dimensional (3D) stellarator equilibrium high beta plasma in ion cyclotron frequency range (ICRF). This theory forms a basis for a 3D code creation, urgently needed for the ICRF heating scenarios development for the operated LHD, constructed W7-X, NCSX and projected CSX3 stellarators, as well for re evaluation of ICRF scenarios in operated tokamaks and in the ITER . The theory solves the 3D Maxwell-Vlasov antenna-plasma-conducting shell boundary value problem in the non-orthogonal flux coordinates ({Psi}, {theta}, {var_phi}), {Psi} being magnetic flux function, {theta} and {var_phi} being the poloidal and toroidal angles, respectively. All basic physics, like wave refraction, reflection and diffraction are self consistently included, along with the fundamental ion and ion minority cyclotron resonances, two ion hybrid resonance, electron Landau and TTMP absorption. Antenna reactive impedance and loading resistance are also calculated and urgently needed for an antenna -generator matching. This is accomplished in a real confining magnetic field being varying in a plasma major radius direction, in toroidal and poloidal directions, through making use of the hot dense plasma wave induced currents with account to the finite Larmor radius effects. We expand the solution in Fourier series over the toroidal ({var_phi}) and poloidal ({theta}) angles and solve resulting ordinary differential equations in a radial like {Psi}-coordinate by finite difference method. The constructed discretization scheme is divergent-free one, thus retaining the basic properties of original equations. The Fourier expansion over the angle coordinates has given to us the possibility to correctly construct the ''parallel'' wave number k{sub //}, and thereby to correctly describe the ICRF waves absorption by a hot plasma. The toroidal harmonics are tightly coupled with each

  11. Steady state scenario development with elevated minimum safety factor on DIII-D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holcomb, C. T.; Ferron, J. R.; Luce, T. C.; Petrie, T. W.; Park, J. M.; Turco, F.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Okabayashi, M.; Lasnier, C. T.; Hanson, J. M.; Politzter, P. A.; In, Y.; Hyatt, A. W.; La Haye, R. J.; Lanctot, M. J.

    2014-09-01

    On DIII-D (Luxon 2005 Fusion Sci. Technol. 48 828), a high β scenario with minimum safety factor (qmin) near 1.4 has been optimized with new tools and shown to be a favourable candidate for long pulse or steady state operation in future devices. The new capability to redirect up to 5 MW of neutral beam injection (NBI) from on- to off-axis improves the ability to sustain elevated qmin with a less peaked pressure profile. These changes increase the ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) n = 1 mode βN limit thus providing a path forward for increasing the noninductive current drive fraction by operating at high βN. Quasi-stationary discharges free of tearing modes have been sustained at βN = 3.5 and βT = 3.6% for two current profile diffusion timescales (about 3 s) limited by neutral beam duration. The discharge performance has normalized fusion performance expected to give fusion gain Q ≈ 5 in a device the size of ITER. Analysis of the poloidal flux evolution and current drive balance show that the loop voltage profile is almost relaxed even with 25% of the current driven inductively, and qmin remains elevated near 1.4. These observations increase confidence that the current profile will not evolve to one unstable to a tearing mode. In preliminary tests a divertor heat flux reduction technique based on producing a radiating mantle with neon injection appears compatible with this operating scenario. 0D model extrapolations suggest it may be possible to push this scenario up to 100% noninductive current drive by raising βN. Similar discharges with qmin = 1.5-2 were susceptible to tearing modes and off-axis fishbones, and with qmin > 2 lower normalized global energy confinement time is observed.

  12. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  13. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-01-01

    The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

  14. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

  15. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  16. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-11-15

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  17. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  18. Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  19. DEROCS: A computer program to simulate offshore oil and natural gas development scenarios and onshore service base requirements

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marcus, Philip A.; Smith, E.T.; Robinson, S.R.; Wong, A.T.

    1977-01-01

    The FORTRAN IV (H) computer program, DEROCS, constructs Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) resource development scenarios and quantifies the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases necessary to support offshore oil and gas operations. The acronym DEROCS stands for 'Development of Energy Resources of the Outer Continental Shelf.' The user may specify the number, timing, and amounts of offshore oil and natural gas finds, onshore service base locations, and multiplier relationships between offshore development activities and onshore land, supply, labor and facility requirements. The program determines schedules of platform installation, development drilling, production from platforms, and well workover, and calculates on a yearly basis the requirements for and impacts of the operation of the onshore service bases demanded by offshore activities. We present two examples of program application.

  20. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  1. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  2. Development and the Information Age: Four Global Scenarios for the Future of Information and Communication Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howkins, John, Ed.; Valantin, Robert, Ed.

    This publication describes the rationale for and processes of a 5-day workshop conducted in 1996 to build an understanding about the complexities of information communication technologies (ICT) and development, in order to assist in the preparation of reports for the United Nations Commission on Science and Technology for Development (UNCSTD). The…

  3. Revealing Risks in Adaptation Planning: expanding Uncertainty Treatment and dealing with Large Projection Ensembles during Planning Scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Wood, A.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation planning assessments often rely on single methods for climate projection downscaling and hydrologic analysis, do not reveal uncertainties from associated method choices, and thus likely produce overly confident decision-support information. Recent work by the authors has highlighted this issue by identifying strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic impacts. This work has shown that many of the methodological choices made can alter the magnitude, and even the sign of the climate change signal. Such results motivate consideration of both sources of method uncertainty within an impacts assessment. Consequently, the authors have pursued development of improved downscaling techniques spanning a range of method classes (quasi-dynamical and circulation-based statistical methods) and developed approaches to better account for hydrologic analysis uncertainty (multi-model; regional parameter estimation under forcing uncertainty). This presentation summarizes progress in the development of these methods, as well as implications of pursuing these developments. First, having access to these methods creates an opportunity to better reveal impacts uncertainty through multi-method ensembles, expanding on present-practice ensembles which are often based only on emissions scenarios and GCM choices. Second, such expansion of uncertainty treatment combined with an ever-expanding wealth of global climate projection information creates a challenge of how to use such a large ensemble for local adaptation planning. To address this challenge, the authors are evaluating methods for ensemble selection (considering the principles of fidelity, diversity and sensitivity) that is compatible with present-practice approaches for abstracting change scenarios from any "ensemble of opportunity". Early examples from this development will also be presented.

  4. Scenarios for acceleration in fish development and the role of metamorphosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Pecquerie, L.; Augustine, S.; Jusup, M.

    2011-11-01

    We compare various alternative explanations of why embryo development is sometimes slow relative to juvenile and adult development on the basis of the standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model and make the comparison with avian altricial versus precocial development. We discuss the role of the energy investment ratio, which combines four different aspects of DEBs: allocation, assimilation, mobilisation and costs for structure. We show how this ratio affects the morphology of growth curves: the ratio of the slopes at start and birth during embryonic growth, as well as the von Bertalanffy time as function of ultimate length during post-embryonic growth. We propose an extension of the standard DEB model that combines a Gompertz (i.e. exponential) start with a von Bertalanffy 'tail' with a smooth transition; a combination that has been applied frequently in fisheries research and here given a mechanistic significance. Implications are that a slow embryonic development is combined with a fast post-metamorphic one and that parameters at metamorphosis depend on feeding history prior to metamorphosis. Identical individuals, in terms of parameter values and amounts of reserve and structure, will become permanently different when they experience different (local) environments, even if they experience identical environments after metamorphosis. This might explain part of the parameter variation amongst individuals.

  5. Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-01-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers' perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that…

  6. Teacher/Scientist Partnership Develops a Simulated Natural Disaster Scenario to Enhance Student Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Wurstner, Signe K.; Herr, Cheryl; Andrews, Gregg L.; Feaster-Alley, Kathy

    2005-11-01

    National science education standards emphasize actively engaging students in developing the abilities of and understandings about scientific inquiry as a way to learn important concepts in the earth sciences and other disciplines. Too few high quality instructional tools, based on the national standards, currently exist that model this type of activity for sixth-grade students. To promote this approach, we created a national laboratory/middle school partnership to develop a hands-on, inquiry-based research project related to flash floods in southeastern Washington State. The project, conducted during the 2003-2004 school year, was built on the middle-school Catastrophic Events module developed by the National Science Resource Center. Seventeen student research teams deepened their understanding of geology, hydrology, and meteorology and applied this understanding as they analyzed and evaluated data they collected. The student teams wrote technical reports and created posters that synthesized the data and presented conclusions and recommendations based on their findings. The project models a successful approach for developing an inquiry-based earth science project and creating a meaningful partnership between schools and scientists.

  7. Western oil-shale development: a technology assessment. Volume 2: technology characterization and production scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-01-01

    A technology characterization of processes that may be used in the oil shale industry is presented. The six processes investigated are TOSCO II, Paraho Direct, Union B, Superior, Occidental MIS, and Lurgi-Ruhrgas. A scanario of shale oil production to the 300,000 BPD level by 1990 is developed. (ACR)

  8. Estimating future ecoregion distributions within the Okavango Delta Wetlands based on hydrological simulations and future climate and development scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milzow, C.; Burg, V.; Kinzelbach, W.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryThe terminal wetlands of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana are driven by the balance between inflows and evapotranspiration. The present situation is threatened by climate change and possible agricultural and industrial development in Botswana and the upstream countries Angola and Namibia. A new balance will affect the spatial extent and character of the Okavango Delta Wetlands. We apply a distributed hydrological model to study the impact of those threats on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The relation between the present distribution of hydrological conditions and the occurrence of vegetation classes is investigated and a good correlation is found between depth to groundwater and vegetation class. By assuming that the distribution of vegetation will in the long term adapt to hydrological conditions, the simulated hydrological conditions under climate change and water management scenarios are translated into vegetation maps for these scenarios. Drier conditions are expected for the future and aquatic vegetation zones will be reduced in size. This change will however occur non-homogeneously over the Delta.

  9. Development of a Drought Severity Assessment Framework using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Products under Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohanty, B. P.; Shin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Evaluating drought severity based on future climate scenarios plays an important role for water resources management. In this study we assessed drought severity based on soil moisture for individual soil-crop combinations. Based on the historical data, pixel-scale hydraulic parameters at finer-scales were estimated from remotely sensed (RS) soil moisture using a newly developed algorithm EMOGA (Ensemble Multiple Operators Genetic Algorithm) coupled with Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) hydrological model. These estimated hydraulic parameters along with meteorological variables obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) were used to predict soil moisture using the SWAP model. Further, drought severity was calculated using a soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) based on the projected soil moisture obtained from the SWAP model. The proposed model was evaluated based on synthetic and field data under different hydro-climates (Lubbock, Texas; Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma; Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa). Finer-scale root zone soil moisture predictions were considerably influenced by various combinations of environmental factors (soils, crops, groundwater table, etc.) along with GCM scenarios. However, these local environmental factors had relatively limited impacts (compared to precipitation dynamics) on reducing drought severity in the study region. The absolute SMDI values do indicate the occurrence of agricultural drought during 2010-2020. Thus, our proposed approach can be used to assess drought severity at finer-scales using a RS soil moisture product for efficient agricultural/water resources management.

  10. Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Annett, Martin S.; Horta, Lucas G.; Jackson, Karen E.; Polanco, Michael A.; Littell, Justin D.

    2012-01-01

    Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were

  11. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  13. [Agrarian movements, development alternatives and food security in Central America: scenarios of transition].

    PubMed

    Rodriguez Rojas, R

    1991-01-01

    This article, based on personal experiences with a network of organizations of small and medium agricultural producers in Central America, aims to present the views of peasant organizations concerning agrarian problems in the region. The 3 major sections of work define the place of peasant agriculture in the traditional agrarian structure and the new problems resulting from the structural adjustment programs of the 1980s; separately describe the new peasant movements emerging in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, identifying common themes an efforts at international collaboration; and explore the positions of the peasant organizations on the optimal strategies for agricultural development and agrarian change. Agriculture remains the backbone of the Central American economies. But because the economic model in the region is 1 of accumulation characterized by dependency, concentration of capital, and social marginalization, the agrarian structure is at the basis of social tensions. Efforts to develop peasant agriculture and to give small producers access to marketing and credit services have been weak and sporadic. The new peasant movements are less inclined than those of the past to employ tactics of confrontation in their efforts to secure access to land and better working conditions. The new movement is the expression of small market producers sometimes grouped into associations who are oriented to production of basic foodstuffs for the internal market. A new concern with adaptation and negotiation is evident. The new organizations have in common a belief in their ability to propose new solutions to regional problems. Their views are founded on a positive assessment of the ability of peasant agriculture to produce food and add dynamism to the regional economy after barriers to credit, technological progress, and modernization in general are removed. Signs of increased cooperation are evident between peasant organizations and other groups

  14. Electronics and telecommunications in Poland, issues and perspectives: Part III. Innovativeness, applications, economy, development scenarios, politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modelski, Józef; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2010-09-01

    Electronics is under development in this country in an organized and institutional way since the beginning of 30-ties of the previous century. It grew up from electrical engineering of weak currents and its first name used popularly was communications. It was time when television was born and the radio was maturing. Electronics is a branch of research and technology which deals with generation and processing of electrical and electromagnetic signals. A subject of telecommunications is signal transmission for a distance. Electronics and telecommunications (ET) includes or is combined with other branches like: microelectronics, radioelectronics, optoelectronics, photonics, acoustoelectronics, magnetronics, bioelectronics, energoelectronics, material engineering, semiconductor physics, automation and robotics, mechatronics and microsystems, informatics, teleinformatics, software engineering and other. Devices and functional systems of ET such as computers, data warehouses, cell phones, TV sets, Internet, GPS are build of electronic components and circuits. ET is a branch which belongs to hi-tech area, where the products gather a large load of knowledge of value overcoming frequently the price of work and material. ET has recently turned to an active participant of the processes of generation, storing, processing, transportation, distribution and usage of knowledge in the society. ET started to create artificial intelligence, co-creates intellectual property, searches for knowledge in big data sets, aids medicine, extends virtual/augmented reality, builds Internet of persons and things, strengthens security, protects natural environment, facilitates our life, aids our decisions, activates individuals, equalizes chances, provides convenient personal communications and access to data, starts building a penetrating ubiquitous infrastructure, ceases to be only a branch of technology, grows into the social space, touches culture, sociology, psychology and art. Such an

  15. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  16. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  17. A pore-level scenario for the development of mixed-wettability in oil reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Kovscek, A.R.; Wong, H.; Radke, C.J.

    1992-09-01

    Understanding the role of thin films in porous media is vital if wettability is to be elucidated at the pore level. The type and thickness of films coating pore walls determines reservoir wettability and whether or not reservoir rock can be altered from its initial state of wettability. Pore shape, especially pore wall curvature, is an important factor in determining wetting-film thicknesses. Yet, pore shape and the physics of thin wetting films are generally neglected in models of flow in porous rocks. This paper incorporates thin-film forces into a collection of star-shaped capillary tubes model to describe the geological development of mixed-wettability in reservoir rock. Here, mixed-wettability refers to continuous and distinct oil and water-wetting surfaces coexisting in the porous medium. The proposed model emphasizes the remarkable role of thin films. New pore-level fluid configurations arise that are quite unexpected. For example, efficient water displacement of oil (i.e, low residual oil saturation) characteristic of mixed-wettability porous media is ascribed to interconnected oil lenses or rivulets which bridge the walls adjacent to a pore corner. Predicted residual oil saturations are approximately 35 % less in mixed-wet rock compared to completely water-wet rock. Calculated capillary pressure curves mimic those of mixed-wet porous media in the primary drainage of water, imbibition of water, and secondary drainage modes. Amott-Harvey indices range from {minus}0.18 to 0.36 also in good agreement with experimental values. (Morrow et al, 1986; Judhunandan and Morrow, 1991).

  18. Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

  19. Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

    2014-12-01

    The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  1. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate

  2. 77 FR 68047 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-15

    ... based on the annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\1\\ 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). Table 1... scenarios for covered institutions. \\1\\ Annual Stress Test, 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). II. STRESS TESTS... of Annual Stress Test Scenarios AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC),...

  3. Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chabi, A.

    2015-12-01

    AbstractBackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

  4. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  5. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    PubMed Central

    Davey, Sanjeev; Davey, Anuradha

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Currently, many cheaper “practice management software” (PMS) are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods: First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009) guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst) software using binary random effects (REs) model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results: Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100–226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85). The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion: Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system. PMID:25949969

  6. Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

    2014-01-01

    Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors. PMID:24693260

  7. Complementing Neurophysiology Education for Developing Countries via Cost-Effective Virtual Labs: Case Studies and Classroom Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Diwakar, Shyam; Parasuram, Harilal; Medini, Chaitanya; Raman, Raghu; Nedungadi, Prema; Wiertelak, Eric; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Achuthan, Krishnashree; Nair, Bipin

    2014-01-01

    Classroom-level neuroscience experiments vary from detailed protocols involving chemical, physiological and imaging techniques to computer-based modeling. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is revolutionizing the current laboratory scenario in terms of active learning especially for distance education cases. Virtual web-based labs are an asset to educational institutions confronting economic issues in maintaining equipment, facilities and other conditions needed for good laboratory practice. To enhance education, we developed virtual laboratories in neuroscience and explored their first-level use in (Indian) University education in the context of developing countries. Besides using interactive animations and remotely-triggered experimental devices, a detailed mathematical simulator was implemented on a web-based software platform. In this study, we focused on the perceptions of technology adoption for a virtual neurophysiology laboratory as a new pedagogy tool for complementing college laboratory experience. The study analyses the effect of virtual labs on users assessing the relationship between cognitive, social and teaching presence. Combining feedback from learners and teachers, the study suggests enhanced motivation for students and improved teaching experience for instructors. PMID:24693260

  8. Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research

  9. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    SciTech Connect

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens; Lommerzheim, Andre; Mrugalla, Sabine

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  10. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  11. CMIP5 Global Climate Model Performance Evaluation and Climate Scenario Development over the South-Central United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosendahl, D. H.; Rupp, D. E.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Moore, B., III

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary drivers of regional downscaling and impacts research - from which relevant information for stakeholders is generated at the regional and local levels. Therefore understanding uncertainties in GCMs is a fundamental necessity if the scientific community is to provide useful and reliable future climate change information that can be utilized by end users and decision makers. Two different assessments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM ensemble were conducted for the south-central United States. The first was a performance evaluation over the historical period for metrics of near surface meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and system-based phenomena, which include large-scale processes that can influence the region (e.g., low-level jet, ENSO). These metrics were used to identify a subset of models of higher performance across the region which were then used to constrain future climate change projections. A second assessment explored climate scenario development where all model climate change projections were assumed equally likely and future projections with the highest impact were identified (e.g., temperature and precipitation combinations of hottest/driest, hottest/wettest, and highest variability). Each of these assessments identify a subset of models that may prove useful to regional downscaling and impacts researchers who may be restricted by the total number of GCMs they can utilize. Results from these assessments will be provided as well as a discussion on when each would be useful and appropriate to use.

  12. A MATLAB/Simulink methodology for simulating dynamic imaging IR missile scenarios for use in countermeasure development and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tremblay, J. P.; Viau, C. R.

    2009-09-01

    The paper describes a methodology for characterizing the signatures of targets for Imaging Infrared (IIR) missiles and generating dynamic missile engagement scenarios using MathWorks tools (primarily MATLAB and Simulink). The over-all objective of this work was to develop high fidelity physics-based simulations of the attack of IIR missiles on targets that are using various types of countermeasures for survivability. While the methodology has been implemented in products used for analyses of both ship and main battle tank protection this paper focuses on the ship application. The methodology involves a multi-step process. First the infrared signatures of the objects are characterized using a graphical tool that enables the user to select individual or groups of surfaces on the objects (targets and countermeasures) and specify their surface temperatures and spectral emissivities. Second, a dynamic IR scene generator creates the scene as viewed by the missile's seeker. Then an imaging IR seeker, using the option of several tracking algorithms, discriminates the target. Finally, the inclusion of dynamic models for missile guidance, aerodynamics and propulsion together with signal propagation enable the closing of the loop in the missile's fly-out. The simulation dynamically computes the distance between each surface and the missile seeker and uses the specified atmospheric attenuation profile to produce a simulated IR image at the seeker. This is processed using several optional tracking algorithms to generate steering signals. This process is repeated every time-step of the simulation and determines the trajectory of the missile and the hit or miss of the missile at engagement completion. The paper includes the following topics: characterizing IR signatures, generating dynamic IR scenes, simulating representative close-loop missile fly-out engagements, evaluating performance and running simulation batches.

  13. Predicting temporal development of discharge and nitrate in relation to dynamic changes of spatial crop distribution in three land use scenario runs with a catchment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guse, Björn; Pfannerstill, Matthias; Geertz, Jörn; Fohrer, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    In the past years, relevant changes in the use of agricultural areas were observed in German catchments. To achieve good ecological conditions in river basins as demanded by the European Water Framework Directive, the implications of land use change on water quantity and especially water quality needs to be quantified. Therefore, recent data of agricultural crops are prepared for the catchment scale. Based on this, simulations of future land use scenarios are carried out with a hydrological catchment model to analyse the linkage between dynamic changes of land use and modeled discharge and nutrients. Spatial and temporal variations of changes within agricultural areas lead to a dynamic change of pressures on the ecological status of rivers. While static land use distributions assume constant conditions for agricultural areas for the whole simulation period, dynamic changes of agricultural areas and their spatial patterns consider the varying land use conditions within the scenario simulation. In our study, a dynamic modeling of spatial distributions for agricultural crops and its impacts on discharge and nitrate is presented at the catchment scale. The area proportions of the crops are estimated in a data-based statistical approach and are implemented into the eco-hydrological model SWAT for recent and future conditions To obtain an accurate reproduction of the water cycle, the SWAT model is calibrated for discharge and nitrate time series for recent conditions. Three land use change scenarios are developed for the study catchment focusing on a dominance of food production, energy crops and on a best ecological practise. According to the scenarios, the spatial crop distribution is updated dynamically for each year, while non-agricultural land use types remain constant. The SWAT model provides satisfying results for discharge and nitrate. The evaluation of the three land use change scenarios for the period from 2021 to 2030 shows low differences in discharge, while

  14. Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

    2009-03-19

    In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

  15. 78 FR 64153 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-28

    ... based on the annual stress test cycle set out in Table 1. \\2\\ 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). Table 1..., 77 FR 52792, 52796, n.11 (Aug. 30, 2012). The commenter also believed that stress testing models... scenarios for covered institutions. \\1\\ Annual Stress Test, 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012). II. Stress...

  16. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

  17. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  18. Energy technology scenarios for use in water resources assessments under Section 13a of the Federal Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act

    SciTech Connect

    1980-10-01

    This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oil price (HWOP) and low world oil price (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oil price cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

  19. Development of instability and turbulence in overturning lee waves: the map of different scenarios in Re–Pr space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakovenko, S. N.

    2016-06-01

    Scenarios of the transition to turbulence in overturning lee waves generated by the two-dimensional obstacle in a stably stratified flow have been explored by visualization of velocity and scalar (density) fields, with analysis of spanwise spectra. The results are obtained by numerical solution of the continuity, Navier–Stokes and scalar equations for stratified fluid with the Boussinesq approximation, for varied Reynolds and Prandtl numbers relating to tank experiments, situations in atmosphere and oceans. Based on the computed data, the dependence of the most unstable perturbation wavelength on Reynolds and Prandtl numbers is derived.

  20. Development of long pulse RF heating and current drive for H-mode scenarios with metallic walls in WEST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekedahl, Annika; Bourdelle, Clarisse; Artaud, Jean-François; Bernard, Jean-Michel; Bufferand, Hugo; Colas, Laurent; Decker, Joan; Delpech, Léna; Dumont, Rémi; Goniche, Marc; Helou, Walid; Hillairet, Julien; Lombard, Gilles; Magne, Roland; Mollard, Patrick; Nardon, Eric; Peysson, Yves; Tsitrone, Emmanuelle

    2015-12-01

    The longstanding expertise of the Tore Supra team in long pulse heating and current drive with radiofrequency (RF) systems will now be exploited in the WEST device (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) [1]. WEST will allow an integrated long pulse tokamak programme for testing W-divertor components at ITER-relevant heat flux (10-20 MW/m2), while treating crucial aspects for ITER-operation, such as avoidance of W-accumulation in long discharges, monitoring and control of heat fluxes on the metallic plasma facing components (PFCs) and coupling of RF waves in H-mode plasmas. Scenario modelling using the METIS-code shows that ITER-relevant heat fluxes are compatible with the sustainment of long pulse H-mode discharges, at high power (up to 15 MW / 30 s at IP = 0.8 MA) or high fluence (up to 10 MW / 1000 s at IP = 0.6 MA) [2], all based on RF heating and current drive using Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) and Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD). This paper gives a description of the ICRH and LHCD systems in WEST, together with the modelling of the power deposition of the RF waves in the WEST-scenarios.

  1. Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo

    2014-12-15

    This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments. PMID:25218330

  2. Development of long pulse RF heating and current drive for H-mode scenarios with metallic walls in WEST

    SciTech Connect

    Ekedahl, Annika Bourdelle, Clarisse; Artaud, Jean-François; Bernard, Jean-Michel; Bufferand, Hugo; Colas, Laurent; Decker, Joan; Delpech, Léna; Dumont, Rémi; Goniche, Marc; Helou, Walid; Hillairet, Julien; Lombard, Gilles; Magne, Roland; Mollard, Patrick; Nardon, Eric; Peysson, Yves; Tsitrone, Emmanuelle

    2015-12-10

    The longstanding expertise of the Tore Supra team in long pulse heating and current drive with radiofrequency (RF) systems will now be exploited in the WEST device (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) [1]. WEST will allow an integrated long pulse tokamak programme for testing W-divertor components at ITER-relevant heat flux (10-20 MW/m{sup 2}), while treating crucial aspects for ITER-operation, such as avoidance of W-accumulation in long discharges, monitoring and control of heat fluxes on the metallic plasma facing components (PFCs) and coupling of RF waves in H-mode plasmas. Scenario modelling using the METIS-code shows that ITER-relevant heat fluxes are compatible with the sustainment of long pulse H-mode discharges, at high power (up to 15 MW / 30 s at I{sub P} = 0.8 MA) or high fluence (up to 10 MW / 1000 s at I{sub P} = 0.6 MA) [2], all based on RF heating and current drive using Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) and Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD). This paper gives a description of the ICRH and LHCD systems in WEST, together with the modelling of the power deposition of the RF waves in the WEST-scenarios.

  3. Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: findings from five case studies.

    PubMed

    König, Hannes Jochen; Uthes, Sandra; Schuler, Johannes; Zhen, Lin; Purushothaman, Seema; Suarma, Utia; Sghaier, Mongi; Makokha, Stella; Helming, Katharina; Sieber, Stefan; Chen, Le; Brouwer, Floor; Morris, Jake; Wiggering, Hubert

    2013-09-01

    The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups. PMID:23218733

  4. Basis for the development of a scenario for ground water risk assessment of plant protection products to banana crop in the frame work of regulation 1107/2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso-Prados, Elena; Fernández-Getino, Ana Patricia; Alonso-Prados, Jose Luis

    2014-05-01

    The risk assessment to ground water of pesticides and their main metabolites is a data requirement under regulation 1107/2009, concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market. Predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) are calculated according to the recommendations of Forum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and Their Use (FOCUS). The FOCUS groundwater working group developed scenarios for the main crops in European Union. However there are several crops which grow under specific agro-environmental conditions not covered by these scenarios and it is frequent to use the defined scenarios as surrogates. This practice adds an uncertainty factor in the risk assessment. One example is represented by banana crop which in Europe is limited to sub-tropical environmental conditions and with specific agronomic practices. The Canary Islands concentrates the higher production of banana in the European Union characterized by volcanic soils. Banana is located at low altitudes where soils have been eroded or degraded, and it is a common practice to transport soil materials from the high-mid altitudes to the low lands for cultivation. These cultivation plots are locally named "sorribas". These volcanic soils, classified as Andosols according to the FAO classification, have special physico-chemical properties due to noncrystalline materials and layer silicates. The good stability of these soils and their high permeability to water make them relatively resistant to water erosion. Physical properties of volcanic clayey soils are strongly affected by allophone and Fe and Al oxyhidroxides. The rapid weathering of porous volcanic material results in accumulation of stable organo-mineral complexes and short-range-order mineral such as allophane, imogolite and ferrihydrite. These components induce strong aggregation that partly favors properties such as: reduced swelling, increased aggregate stability of clay minerals, high soil water retention capacity

  5. Innovative technologies to understand hydrogeomorphic impacts of climate change scenarios on gully development in drylands: case study from Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frankl, Amaury; Stal, Cornelis; Abraha, Amanuel; De Wulf, Alain; Poesen, Jean

    2014-05-01

    Taking climate change scenarios into account, rainfall patterns are likely to change over the coming decades in eastern Africa. In brief, large parts of eastern Africa are expected to experience a wetting, including seasonality changes. Gullies are threshold phenomena that accomplish most of their geomorphic change during short periods of strong rainfall. Understanding the links between geomorphic change and rainfall characteristics in detail, is thus crucial to ensure the sustainability of future land management. In this study, we present image-based 3D modelling as a low-cost, flexible and rapid method to quantify gully morphology from terrestrial photographs. The methodology was tested on two gully heads in Northern Ethiopia. Ground photographs (n = 88-235) were taken during days with cloud cover. The photographs were processed in PhotoScan software using a semi-automated Structure from Motion-Multi View Stereo (SfM-MVS) workflow. As a result, full 3D models were created, accurate at cm level. These models allow to quantify gully morphology in detail, including information on undercut walls and soil pipe inlets. Such information is crucial for understanding the hydrogeomorphic processes involved. Producing accurate 3D models after each rainfall event, allows to model interrelations between rainfall, land management, runoff and erosion. Expected outcomes are the production of detailed vulnerability maps that allow to design soil and water conservation measures in a cost-effective way. Keywords: 3D model, Ethiopia, Image-based 3D modelling, Gully, PhotoScan, Rainfall.

  6. Development of a versatile lab-on-a-chip enzyme assay platform for pathogen detection in CBRNE scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klemm, Richard; Schattschneider, Sebastian; Jahn, Tobias; Hlawatsch, Nadine; Julich, Sandra; Becker, Holger; Gärtner, Claudia

    2013-05-01

    The ability to integrate complete assays on a microfluidic chip helps to greatly simplify instrument requirements and allows the use of lab-on-a-chip technology in the field. A core application for such field-portable systems is the detection of pathogens in a CBRNE scenario such as permanent monitoring of airborne pathogens, e.g. in metro stations or hospitals etc. As one assay methodology for the pathogen identification, enzymatic assays were chosen. In order evaluate different detection strategies, the realized on-chip enzyme assay module has been designed as a general platform chip. In all application cases, the assays are based on immobilized probes located in microfluidic channels. Therefore a microfluidic chip was realized containing a set of three individually addressable channels, not only for detection of the sample itself also to have a set of references for a quantitative analysis. It furthermore includes two turning valves and a waste container for clear and sealed storage of potential pathogenic liquids to avoid contamination of the environment. All liquids remain in the chip and can be disposed of in proper way subsequently to the analysis. The chip design includes four inlet ports consisting of one sample port (Luer interface) and three mini Luer interfaces for fluidic support of e.g. washing buffer, substrate and enzyme solution. The sample can be applied via a special, sealable sampling vessel with integrated female Luer interface. Thereby also pre-anaytical contamination of the environment can be provided. Other reagents that are required for analysis will be stored off chip.

  7. The development of applied action levels for soil contact: a scenario for the exposure of humans to soil in a residential setting.

    PubMed Central

    Sedman, R M

    1989-01-01

    The California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual, 1985, was developed by the California Department of Health Services to provide a detailed technical basis for managing uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The Decision Tree describes a process that relies on criteria, Applied Action Levels (AALs) to evaluate and, if necessary, mitigate the impact of uncontrolled hazardous waste sites on the public health and the environment. AALs are developed for individual substances, species, and media of exposure. AALs have been routinely developed for the media of air and water; however, an approach for developing AALs for soil contact was lacking. Given that the air pathway for soil contact is addressed in AALs for air, two routes of exposure, ingestion and dermal contact, are addressed in developing AALs for soil contact. The approach assumes a lifetime of exposure to soil in a residential setting. Age-related changes in exposure are included in the scenario. Exposure to soil due to ingestion and dermal contact are quantitated independently and then integrated in the final exposure scenario. A mass balance approach using four elements is employed to quantitate soil ingestion for a young child. Changes in soil ingestion with age are based on age-related changes in blood lead concentration and mouthing behavior. Dermal exposure to soil was determined from studies that reported skin soil load and from estimates of exposed skin surface area. Age-related changes in the dermal exposure to soil are also based on changes with age of blood lead concentration and mouthing behavior. The estimates of exposure to soil due to ingestion and dermal contact are integrated, and an approach for developing AALs is advanced. AALs are derived by allocating the Maximum Exposure Level as described in the Decision Tree to the average daily exposure to soil. Toxicokinetic considerations for the two routes of exposure must be included in deriving AALs for the soil medium of exposure. PMID:2651104

  8. POTENTIAL WATER QUANTITY AND WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS ON MAJOR RIVERS IN THE OHIO BASIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared in support of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program supported by the Environmental Protection Agency. Water consumption levels associated with power plant cooling were estimated for different energy develop...

  9. EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

    PubMed

    Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

    2015-12-01

    Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. PMID:26051596

  10. Application of Use Case Scenarios to Support the Development of a Future SSA Governance and Data Policy in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valero, Juan-Luis; Albani, Sergio; Gallardo, Beatriz; Matute, Jacobo; O'Dwyer, Anthony

    2013-08-01

    Space Situational Awareness (SSA) refers to the knowledge of location and function of space objects and of the space environment, including operational satellites, space debris, near Earth objects and space weather. The development of a European SSA system will underpin the exploitation of European space assets, representing a key capability contributing to the autonomous access to space for Europe. [1] The European Union Satellite Centre (EU SatCen), through the "Support to Precursor space situational Awareness services" (SPA) project, has backed SSA activities in Europe by providing a set of suggestions and recommendations to support decision-making regarding the development of SSA Governance and Data Policy. [10

  11. Alaska OCS socioeconomic studies program. Technical report number 31. Bering-Norton petroleum development scenarios local socioeconomic systems analysis. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Ender, R.L.; Gorski, S.E.; Harrison, G.; Braund, S.

    1980-07-01

    The document provides a baseline profile of the communities of Nome and Kotzebue encompassing local socioeconomic conditions; and an impacts analysis of Nome, Alaska with and without the proposed oil lease sale scheduled for Norton Sound. Topics include an historical perspective, a comprehensive discussion of the local economic conditions and current demographic information; local government revenues and expenditures and community support service sectors including health and social services, leisure, education, public safety, utilities, land use and housing. Socioeconomic impacts are defined with three different growth scenarios stemming from oil development and are compared to a non-OCS base case which defines impacts of growth without the presence of oil development. A final section includes a comprehensive discussion of the assumptions, methods and standards, used in the assessment of impacts due to growth in population employment and service sectors in Nome, Alaska.

  12. Blueprint for the development of low carbon society scenarios for Asian regions- case study of Iskandar Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, C. S.; Matsuoka, Y.; Chau, L. W.; Teh, B. T.; Simson, J. J.; Gomi, K.

    2013-06-01

    Malaysian government aims to reduce 40% reduction of carbon emission intensity by the year 2020 using 2005 as the base year. Several mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing environmental and climate change are formulated at national, regional and local level to mitigate greenhouse gases. This paper aims to examine local and regional resilient policy actions to reduce greenhouse gases using the empirical case of Iskandar Malaysia. The study case is selected because it is one of the fast developing economic corridor regions in Malaysia. In this study, a low carbon society blueprint is initiated to guide the rapid development of this economic corridor towards low carbon green growth. The blueprint provides the sustainable green growth roadmap with major 12 actions for the region. It is done through a bottom-up approach where stakeholder discussions are carried out to allow local communities participation in the plan formulation.

  13. Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

    The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

  14. Measuring change in depression-related interpretation bias: development and validation of a parallel ambiguous scenarios test.

    PubMed

    Rohrbacher, Heike; Reinecke, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Depressed mood is associated with making negatively biased interpretations of ambiguous everyday events. Experimental modification towards a more optimistic interpretation has become a focus of recent research. However, to date, no measures exist that have been tested with respect to their psychometric properties that justify repeated administration to capture change. We aimed to develop and evaluate a pragmatic assessment instrument, consisting of a 30-item questionnaire (long version) and two 15-item parallel short versions (A and B). Items were generated as ambiguous sentences, reflecting three relevant content areas based on Beck's cognitive triad. The sentences were rated for pleasantness, and this emotional appraisal task indicates the emotional valence of the interpretation. Due to the intention to develop a parallel test version, item-twins were generated. All three versions of the instrument were found to be structurally stable, internally consistent and valid. In line with Beck's cognitive triad in depression, confirmatory factor analyses determined a three-factor solution (i.e. self, experiences and future). Significant correlations were found between all scales and depressive mood. The two short versions represent the same underlying constructs, share identical psychometric properties and possess high parallel-test reliability. This study is the first to evaluate and confirm the factorial validity as well as the parallel-test reliability of an interpretation bias measure. It is suitable to measure bias modification and has therefore great potential for research and clinical practice. PMID:24903154

  15. Development of a Standard Test Scenario to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Portable Fire Extinguishers on Lithium-ion Battery Fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Juarez, Alfredo; Harper, Susan A.; Hirsch, David B.; Carriere, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Many sources of fuel are present aboard current spacecraft, with one especially hazardous source of stored energy: lithium ion batteries. Lithium ion batteries are a very hazardous form of fuel due to their self-sustaining combustion once ignited, for example, by an external heat source. Batteries can become extremely energetic fire sources due to their high density electrochemical energy content that may, under duress, be violently converted to thermal energy and fire in the form of a thermal runaway. Currently, lithium ion batteries are the preferred types of batteries aboard international spacecraft and therefore are routinely installed, collectively forming a potentially devastating fire threat to a spacecraft and its crew. Currently NASA is developing a fine water mist portable fire extinguisher for future use on international spacecraft. As its development ensues, a need for the standard evaluation of various types of fire extinguishers against this potential threat is required to provide an unbiased means of comparing between fire extinguisher technologies and ranking them based on performance.

  16. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  17. A scenario-based approach to modeling development: a prototype model of C. elegans vulval fate specification.

    PubMed

    Kam, Na'aman; Kugler, Hillel; Marelly, Rami; Appleby, Lara; Fisher, Jasmin; Pnueli, Amir; Harel, David; Stern, Michael J; Hubbard, E Jane Albert

    2008-11-01

    Studies of developmental biology are often facilitated by diagram "models" that summarize the current understanding of underlying mechanisms. The increasing complexity of our understanding of development necessitates computational models that can extend these representations to include their dynamic behavior. Here we present a prototype model of Caenorhabditis elegans vulval precursor cell fate specification that represents many processes crucial for this developmental event but that are hard to integrate using other modeling methodologies. We demonstrate the integrative capabilities of our methodology by comprehensively incorporating the contents of three seminal papers, showing that this methodology can lead to comprehensive models of developmental biology. The prototype computational model was built and is run using a language (Live Sequence Charts) and tool (the Play-Engine) that facilitate the same conceptual processes biologists use to construct and probe diagram-type models. We demonstrate that this modeling approach permits rigorous tests of mutual consistency between experimental data and mechanistic hypotheses and can identify specific conflicting results, providing a useful approach to probe developmental systems. PMID:18706404

  18. Coupling atmospheric, hydrological and hydraulic models to develop a catalogue of worst-case scenarios for extreme flooding in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Felder, Guido; Raible, Christoph C.; Martius, Olivia; Rössler, Ole

    2015-04-01

    Extreme flooding are a natural threat that leads to great economical cost, especially in densely populated areas such as Switzerland. However, the study of such extremes is difficult due to the fact they are, by definition, very rare, whereas the instrumental period is relatively short. This hampers the study of events with large return periods, which are precisely those more relevant from the impact point of view. Thus, new methodologies have to be developed that provide a deeper understanding of such disastrous situations and their driving mechanisms. This study employs a chain of models that allow the study of the frequency and severity of such situations and to analyse their driving physical mechanisms. First, a long climate simulation (a control simulation spanning more than 500 years) with the comprehensive Global Circulation Model (GCM) CESM1 is used as test-bed for producing a dataset of several centuries of physically consistent climate. This data is then used to filter out a number of case studies corresponding to extreme situations, which are selected as candidates for further analysis. However, although the physical consistency of this simulation ensures that the synoptic circulation leading to the selected events is plausible, the global model employs a coarse spatial resolution (1 degree) that precludes the accurate simulation of the precipitation in areas of complex topography such as Switzerland. Hence, once the dates of the candidate cases are selected within the GCM run, this dataset is downscaled with the Regional Climate Model (RCM) WRF. The RCM implements a spatial resolution of 2 km over the entire alpine area, which allows it to reproduce more accurately the precipitation induced by interactions between the large-scale forcing and the orography. The results show that WRF is able to improve the simulation of precipitation compared to the GCM alone. Although the large-scale flow and the location of the precipitation maxima is very similar in

  19. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  20. Multiuser development scenario for ICF

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, W.J.

    1985-10-01

    An outline is given of some of the various possible applications of ICF technology. Developmental paths for each application are briefly described. The implications on design and operation of the ICF facilities if multipurpose use is allowed are examined. (MOW)

  1. Identifying bio-physical, social and political challenges to catchment governance for sustainable freshwater fisheries in West Africa: Systems overview through scenario development in the SUSFISH project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sendzimir, Jan; Slezak, Gabriele; Melcher, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Chronic and episodic water scarcity prompted construction of 1400 reservoirs in Burkina Faso since 1950, greatly expanding fisheries production. These fisheries provided an increasingly important protein source for a population that has risen 600% since 1920, but production has plateaued, and dramatic declines in adult fish size suggest these fisheries are not sustainable. The SUSFISH project joined Austrian and Burkinabe scientists to increase local capacities to manage fisheries sustainably. SUSFISH has successfully increased capacity to monitor fish populations, identify endangered species, and use specific fish and macroinvertebrate species as bio-indicators of water and habitat quality as well as anthropogenic pressures. But projects to support sustainable development in Africa have a long history of failure if only based on transfer of technology and theory based on bio-physical sciences. This paper describes the processes and products of knowledge elicitation, scenario development and systems analysis to identify barriers and bridges to long-term sustainable fisheries development that arise from bio-physical, social, political and cultural causes, and, especially, interactions between them. Lessons learned and important on-going research questions are identified for both the natural and social sciences as they apply to managing catchments at multiple scales of governance, from local to national.

  2. Co-Producing Future Climate Scenarios for Adaptation and Management in the Gunnison Basin: An Integrative Framework for Developing Usable Climate Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifford, K. R.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2013-12-01

    This research aims to develop usable climate information for decision making at local scales using an integrative framework, involving interactions between scientists and stakeholders, that facilitates a better understanding of the stakeholder's climate needs and sensitivities. We present a study from the Gunnison Basin, located in southwestern Colorado, that uses this framework to understand the climate needs of a diverse group of stakeholders, which includes ranchers, recreationalists, scientists, and public land managers, and how this local knowledge can be effectively utilized in creating usable future climate narratives for community level decision-making. We present an analysis based on detailed interviews of stakeholders which examine how elements of (1) spatial (e.g., region, watershed, slope) and temporal (e.g., seasonal, generational) scales, (2) features (e.g., snowpack, monsoon, avalanches, dust on snow, frost, storms), (3) processes (e.g., precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, fire, population dynamics, pest invasions), and (4) outcomes (e.g., harvest, income, user-days) can be incorporated with physical models and scientific understanding to identify the stakeholder's climate needs, and develop effective climate scenarios for decision making.

  3. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  4. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  5. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  6. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  7. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  8. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  9. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  10. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  11. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  12. Promotion of Cooperation among Research and Development Organizations in the Field of Vocational Training. Scenario of the Vocational Training Systems in the Federal Republic of Germany to 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1986

    A forward-looking scenario for the vocational training system extending to the year 1995 is composed of two parts. The first comprises a forecast, with both optimistic and pessimistic variants, relating to the economic, technical, political, and demographic contextual aspects that play a major role in determining the profile of the vocational…

  13. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  14. Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Global climatic change is expected to have severe effects on natural systems along with various socio-economic aspects of human life. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely used to study the impacts in future, with varied projections/simulations from the entire participating member GCMs. This has urged scientific communities across the world try to improve the understandings of future climate conditions, and reduce the uncertainties associated with them. In the present study, we have used various multi-modelling methods, both deterministic and probabilistic, to reduce the model uncertainties, in historical time period of 1970-2000. The analysis is performed for uncertainty bounds of precipitation and temperature using 10 selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Inter-comparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB). All the multi-modelling methods are applied and evaluated in accordance to their performance indicator using Taylor diagrams on simulating past climate for all 10 sub-basins. The best performing multi-model method, on basis of performance of all the climatic parameters, is chosen for a particular sub-basin and same is used to develop a probable future scenario for the period of 2010-2099. All the analysis and computations are performed on statistically downscaled GCM data to increase the accuracy and better capture the uncertainty bounds on sub-basin scale, as well as enhancing the ability of multi-modeling techniques. All the future time series are used to assess the uncertainties of climatic parameters for climate change analysis. Results have brought insight into each of the multi-modelling techniques i.e. highlighting the pros and cons of all the applied methods. It was also inferred that multi-modelling techniques varied from basin to basin and with different variables, as per their capabilities to capture the observation spread/uncertainty. Eventually, the different ensemble time series

  15. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  16. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  18. Physics-model-based nonlinear actuator trajectory optimization and safety factor profile feedback control for advanced scenario development in DIII-D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, J. E.; Boyer, M. D.; Shi, W.; Wehner, W. P.; Schuster, E.; Ferron, J. R.; Walker, M. L.; Humphreys, D. A.; Luce, T. C.; Turco, F.; Penaflor, B. G.; Johnson, R. D.

    2015-09-01

    DIII-D experimental results are reported to demonstrate the potential of physics-model-based safety factor profile control for robust and reproducible sustainment of advanced scenarios. In the absence of feedback control, variability in wall conditions and plasma impurities, as well as drifts due to external disturbances, can limit the reproducibility of discharges with simple pre-programmed scenario trajectories. The control architecture utilized is a feedforward + feedback scheme where the feedforward commands are computed off-line and the feedback commands are computed on-line. In this work, a first-principles-driven (FPD), physics-based model of the q profile and normalized beta ({β\\text{N}} ) dynamics is first embedded into a numerical optimization algorithm to design feedforward actuator trajectories that steer the plasma through the tokamak operating space to reach a desired stationary target state that is characterized by the achieved q profile and {β\\text{N}} . Good agreement between experimental results and simulations demonstrates the accuracy of the models employed for physics-model-based control design. Second, a feedback algorithm for q profile control is designed following an FPD approach, and the ability of the controller to achieve and maintain a target q profile evolution is tested in DIII-D high confinement (H-mode) experiments. The controller is shown to be able to effectively control the q profile when {β\\text{N}} is relatively close to the target, indicating the need for integrated q profile and {β\\text{N}} control to further enhance the ability to achieve robust scenario execution. The ability of an integrated q profile + {β\\text{N}} feedback controller to track a desired target is demonstrated through simulation.

  19. Evaluation of Precipitation from CMIP5 Models for Western Colorado and Development of a Scenario based Method for Regional Climate Change Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Arnott, J. C.; Rood, R. B.

    2015-12-01

    As the latest generation of climate and Earth system models become more complex , the use of model output to project certain impact relevant indicators for regional climate change adaptation planning is increasingly sought. However, barriers due to skill remain when utilizing this model data to project changes in precipitation over mountainous areas at regional and subregional scales. Complex topography, localized meteorological phenomenon, and other factors are still not well represented by global scale models, which can limit the representation of key impact criteria needed for planning.We explore limitations and opportunities of utilizing precipitation data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5) models to provide use relevant projections of future precipitation conditions in Western Colorado, with a focus on applications relevant to climate information needs in the resort community of Aspen. First, a model skill evaluation is conducted by comparing precipitation and temperature values of selected model ensemble from CMIP5 to observations during a historical period. The comparison is conducted for both temporal and spatial scales, on both yearly and seasonal increments. Results indicate that the models are more skillful at representing temperature than precipitation and that the apparent lack of skill for precipitation warrants caution in the use of such data in climate impacts assessment that serve to inform adaptation planning and preparedness decision making. In light of model evaluation, the authors introduce a scenario based method in which individual models within the CMIP5 ensemble are organized into plausible qualitative futures and individual model runs are selected as representative scenarios by which detailed analysis can then be applied. The results from scenario based method are viewed as useful for exploring regional climate futures in instances when it is not appropriate to utilize data directly from global-scale climate models.

  20. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  1. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  2. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  3. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  4. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    and to develop multiple response options. Coastal management actions can take anywhere from a few years for alterations to an existing levee to a decade or longer for large-scale, multi-use projects. Given the observed accelerated rate of global SLR in recent decades, it is now critical for the scientific community to help decision makers use scenario planning approaches for coastal adaptation in order to avoid future impacts of sea level rise and its effect on the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding.

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  6. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  7. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  8. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  9. Simulating the impact of urban sprawl on air quality and population exposure in the German Ruhr area. Part II: Development and evaluation of an urban growth scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Ridder, Koen; Lefebre, Filip; Adriaensen, Stefan; Arnold, Ute; Beckroege, Wolfgang; Bronner, Christine; Damsgaard, Ole; Dostal, Ivo; Dufek, Jiri; Hirsch, Jacky; IntPanis, Luc; Kotek, Zdenek; Ramadier, Thierry; Thierry, Annette; Vermoote, Stijn; Wania, Annett; Weber, Christiane

    The impact of uncontrolled urban growth ('sprawl') on air pollution and associated population exposure is investigated. This is done for the Ruhr area in Germany, by means of a coupled modelling system dealing with land use changes, traffic, meteorology, and atmospheric dispersion and chemistry. In a companion paper [De Ridder, K., Lefebre F., Adriaensen S., Arnold U., Beckroege W., Bronner C., Damsgaard O., Dostal I., Dufek J., Hirsch J., Int Panis L., Kotek Z., Ramadier T., Thierry A., Vermoote S., Wania A., Weber C., 2008. Simulating the impact of urban sprawl on air quality and population exposure in the German Ruhr area. Part I: reproducing the base state.], a description was given of the coupling of these models and of the validation of simulation results. In the present paper, a land use change scenario was implemented to mimic urban sprawl, relocating 12% of the urban population in the study domain to the green periphery. The resulting updated land use, population and employment density patterns were then used as input for traffic simulations, yielding an increase of total traffic volume by almost 17%. As a consequence, the domain-average simulated pollutant concentrations of ozone and particulate matter increased, though by a smaller amount, of approximately 4%. In a final step, population exposure to air pollution was calculated, both for the base case and the scenario simulations. A very slight domain-average exposure increase was found, of the order of a half percent. A compensating mechanism was identified, explaining this small figure. However, when stratifying the population into groups of individuals that were relocated to the urban periphery and those that were not, much larger exposure changes following urban sprawl emerged. Indeed, it was found that the relatively small proportion of relocated individuals benefited of a decrease of exposure to particulate matter by almost 13%, mainly because of their moving out of the most polluted areas; and

  10. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  11. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  12. SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

    1994-06-01

    General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

  13. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  14. A Methology for Assessing the Regional Transportation Energy Demands of Different Spatial Residential Development Scenarios: a Case Study for the Upper Housatonic River Basin, Massachusetts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oski, J. A.; Fabos, J. G.; Gross, M.

    1982-01-01

    A method is suggested whereby regional landscape planning efforts can be aided by the use of a geographic information system to determine sites for more energy efficient residential and mixed use developments within a study area. The location of land parcels suited for residential and mixed land use developments in the Upper Housatonic River Basin Study Area in Berkshire County, Massachusetts is described as well as the three development options. Significant steps in the procedure are discussed and the computation of the transportation energy requirement is elaborated.

  15. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  16. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  17. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  18. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  19. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  20. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  1. Other Perspectives for Developing Exposure Estimates: “SHEDS-Lite: Rapid Scenario-Based ExposurePredictions for Chemicals with Near-Field and Dietary Pathways”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Creative advances in exposure science are needed to support efficient and effective evaluation and management of chemical risks, particularly for chemicals in consumer products. This presentation will describe the development of EPA’s screening-level, probabilistic SHEDS-Li...

  2. The Development of a Formative Scenario-Based Computer Assisted Assessment Tool in Psychology for Teachers: The PePCAA Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crisp, Victoria; Ward, Christine

    2008-01-01

    Formative computer assisted assessment has become increasingly attractive in Higher Education where providing useful feedback to large numbers of students can be difficult. However, the nature of such assessments has often been limited to objective questions such as multiple-choice. This paper reports on the development and initial trialling of a…

  3. Preliminary Steps Towards Integrating Climate and Land Use (Iclus): the Development of Land-Use Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Emissions Storylines (2008, External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This draft report is a description of the methods u...

  4. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  5. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  6. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  7. Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

    2015-12-01

    Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent

  8. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  9. The Indian Media Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eapen, K. E.

    As background information for a discussion of India's communication system and its potential for social change, this paper briefly describes the country's physical characteristics, some of its cultural heritage and demographics, and the development of its education and railways. After a discussion of the folk media (traditional changes) of…

  10. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242